Cash cows

There are 12,500,000 households (more or less) in the nation. Of those, 206,600 have managed to accumulate $5 million in assets, or more. That’s 1.6% of the population. Together they own 28% of all the wealth. Some of them – fewer than 3,000 families – have a ton of dough, $100 million or more. Under a dozen have a billion.

How did 1.6% of people get 28% of the money? Some inherited it. Most did not. And the bulk of the wealth isn’t in cash, but invested in businesses. Some of those employ armies of people. Like Galen Weston, for example, currently a punching-bag of the leftists. He’s worth about $8 billion (largely in corporate stock) and employs just under 150,000 Canadians.

But billionaires are rare. We could use more of these job-creating titans. And wealthy people are cash cows for the government. The top 10% now pay 54% of all the income taxes. That allows forty per cent of households to pay nothing, net of government benefits.

Wat did Covid teach us?

Lots, sadly. Eight million people (of a workforce of 19 million) went on the dole. Close to a million households (of the 3.65 million who own houses with mortgages) decided they couldn’t make payments. It took less than a month after the virus arrived for a crisis to emerge. Now the federal government has discovered (no surprise) that it can’t turn the tap off. It will be Christmas before the CERB expires – and no guarantee that will happen.

For a dog’s age, this blog has argued a real estate obsession has lured people into historic debt, caused them to spend money unwisely, cratered savings, set up a retirement crisis, created a dangerous one-asset financial plan and actually fed financial insecurity. If you need proof of this, read the paragraph above once more. On average Canadians have $1.50 in debt for every buck earned. Debt ratios are 450% of income among new homebuyers in Toronto and Vancouver. Interest rates are at historic lows. Just imagine in a few years when the virus is a memory, economies are restored and the cost of money begins to rise.

The payroll guys found repeatedly that over 40% of households were one paycheque from disaster. Now we know it’s true. Credit bureau surveys discovered, pre-virus, that six in ten families felt they might not be able to pay their monthlies, because of debt. Also true. Over half of all households are vulnerable financially – in a country where 70% own houses. Remarkably, this comes after the greatest-ever run-up in real estate values. Instead of harvesting profits and diversifying, Canadians kept buying up the property ladder, hiking debt and danger. Incomes have matched neither spending nor appetites. Debt filled the gap. Now the reckoning.

Meanwhile the wealth gap spreads. Families with diversified assets have had a far different Covid experience. Thanks to dramatic government fiscal stimulus and historic levels of central bank monetary stimulus, capital markets have recovered fast from the virus. As interest rates collapsed, more money has gone into equities – since fixed income pays squat. And Mr.Market accepts that pandemics are temporary, so the economy will inevitably reopen and corporate profitability restored.

This is what investors, therefore, have seen happen while millions of real estate-indebted families struggle. The gauge of fear and volatility, the VIX, has tumbled dramatically from its March peak.

The gauge of fear tumbles…

Concurrently, equity markets have rebounded dramatically, as shown here by the S&P 500. We’ve just seen the fastest, steepest ascent from bear market territory in history. Those people who panicked and sold in late March took a paper loss and made it oh-so real. Those who ignored the drop are seeing their portfolios restored.

…while market confidence grows

Does this still look like a V-shaped recovery? Investors think so, despite the damage lockdowns and quarantines did to the economy, despite huge unemployment, despite the potential of a second wave and that weird guy in the White House. As society reopens the negatives will diminish while the fiscal and monetary stimulus continues. What would cause markets to stumble and fall – that we’ve not already faced?

Stay invested. Ignore the “stocks are too risky” discredited moaning of those (including advisors) who totally missed the rebound. Balance, diversification & liquidity are the three muses of the 1%ers. They’re making the wealthy wealthier. And no realtors involved.

 

165 comments ↓

#1 YouKnowWho on 06.19.20 at 1:35 pm

Humans not able to touch humans? It is the reality.

In my little series of songs about touch, it’s time perhaps to be grateful to not be dead of Covid.

I give you Touch of Grey by…Greatful Dead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzvk0fWtCs0

#2 Alex on 06.19.20 at 1:41 pm

Only 3.65 million mortgages in the country? and 1 million (27%) have deferred? That sounds off… Typo?

There are 12.4 million households, 8.5 million of which own homes. Of those, 43% have mortgages. – Garth

#3 TurnerNation on 06.19.20 at 1:46 pm

One rule of life is that once your rights are taken away you never get them returned in the same manner.
At present all are presumed guilty/sick until proven innocent/healthy.
We are considered dirty farm animals which must be kept outside. In my province I’m forbidden by law to sit down inside any establishment. Too dangerous. Seats are blocked off.

In one week in March the world fell in WW3. All culture from the Old System was banned. Sports,  theatre, arts, Frosh week, kids bday parties, live music.. And remains banned. 24/7 CV  propaganda was all that was shown on the telescreens. Globally.

In my province the government dictates every single step you take. Even your breathing is regulated.  That’s right. Singing and dancing is forbidden by law on patios (keeping filthy animals like us outside) . Some are still in denial over this global communism. Understadable.

Those closed sports stadiums will remain closed.  Likely where you will line up for your Freedom Needles. Submit to our new rulers Big Pharma and Big Tech. Get the Mark on your cell phone. They’ll stone you just like they said they would.
….
“The executives, including the chief executive officer of Royal Bank of Canada, asked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and provincial premiers to “find a responsible way to co-exist with COVID-19 until there is a vaccine.” Air Canada’s CEO Calin Rovinescu and a tourism lobby group last week urged the government to lift travel restrictions in an open letter. “

#4 SimplyPut7 on 06.19.20 at 1:49 pm

CERB confusion leaving people with no income

https://globalnews.ca/news/7070628/cerb-ei-run-out/

Can’t wait for the economic update next month from the federal government. Let’s see if they can provide an accurate budget for the extended CERB program, it will probably cost $100 billion when all is said and done.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fiscal-update-july-1.5615429

#5 Faron on 06.19.20 at 1:54 pm

Investing question:

I was playing around with a portfolio simulator and it seems like owning a couple % of the portfolio as a VIX futures ETF has the effect of hedging strongly against market volatility. During the latest drop, 2-3% VIX futures offset almost all of the downside of market nuttiness. It provides a drag on growth during calm times (that are most of the times) and because VIX futures are also in contango, there will be constant capital erosion. But for fearful people like me who freak out when 7% down days happen, it looks like they do a good job of backstopping risk while allowing more than decent returns.

I assume if this is a good idea, many people would do it. Anyone here have thoughts both for “normal” times and for these times where volatility spikes happen on the regular? Perhpas the problem is knowing when to cash out of the VIX futures ETF to maximize the protection by realizing the gains.

Somehow, I think the answer is to take the dollars spent on the VIX erosion and hand the portfolio over to a financial advisor. That would have the benefit of supporting smallish business as well.

#6 Alex on 06.19.20 at 2:00 pm

Only 3.65 million mortgages in the country? and 1 million (27%) have deferred? That sounds off… Typo?

There are 12.4 million households, 8.5 million of which own homes. Of those, 43% have mortgages. – Garth

*************

Ok then. Wow, not as many as I thought I guess. But a lot of distressed home owers… Fun times ahead.

#7 mike from mtl on 06.19.20 at 2:04 pm

“…Just imagine in a few years when the virus is a memory, economies are restored and the cost of money begins to rise…”

While I agree we’re going to get through this somehow and the ‘market’ seems to be getting ahead of itself please, rates are not going up (and staying there) anytime soon.

The Fed could not even hold much above 2% before the ‘market’ had a fit in Dec ’18 and they quickly backtracked – remember that? BoC as well never could get more than 1.75.

Probably the next peak will be what? 1% maximum before the SHTF and back to zero.

#8 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 2:11 pm

“Balance, diversification & liquidity are the three muses of the 1%ers. They’re making the wealthy wealthier.”

——————

Correct. Great opportunities were there for the taking.

As a result, my days now consist mainly of game theory. Such fun. So intoxicating to pull the lever that directs the train. Everything’s negotiable.

And we’re the only firm hiring, while at the same time doing exciting work and compensating well above comparables, as always. So… which engineers want to work for us? Oh, all of them. No advertising necessary.

The future is bright.

#9 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.19.20 at 2:16 pm

Locked in this weekend?
Watch the Trump rally in Tulsa on your favorite Newscast.
Should be history making.

#10 Piano_Man87 on 06.19.20 at 2:35 pm

70% of people in owned households, and 50% of people living paycheque to paycheque means around 20% of people who own their homes shouldn’t.

If you live paycheque to paycheque, and don’t have any buffer for a sudden home expense, that means you are probably not maintaining your home properly. These are the homes where shingles and paint are peeling, windows are fogging up, stairs are rotting/crumbling, and fences are falling down. If you live paycheque to paycheque, are you really going to drop thousands of dollars and get new windows? Re-shingle the roof? Fix your crumbling driveway? Having a country with an immense amount of homes like this is a form of destruction of capital through neglect.

#11 kommykim on 06.19.20 at 2:36 pm

RE: #5 Faron on 06.19.20 at 1:54 pm
Investing question:
I was playing around with a portfolio simulator and it seems like owning a couple % of the portfolio as a VIX futures ETF
—–Deleted for brevity—–
I assume if this is a good idea, many people would do it. Anyone here have thoughts both for “normal” times and for these times where volatility spikes happen on the regular?

==============================================

Well, ask those who were invested in the Horizon’s inverse VIX ETF (HVI) how they feel about that financial instrument’s performance during some mildly “interesting times”:

https://www.horizonsclassaction.ca/

#12 IHCTD9 on 06.19.20 at 2:40 pm

#233 Tater on 06.19.20 at 11:59 am
#225 IHCTD9 on 06.19.20 at 11:18 am
#224 whiplash on 06.19.20 at 10:56 am
Universal Basic Income–This is right out of the playbook of Pierre Trudeau. Back in 1974 the first Trudeau and the NDP government of Manitoba launched a pilot project called MINCOME or Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment in selected areas, it was terminated when both the libs/ndp were defeated in elections later on.
Justin is doing nothing original just copying what daddy did!
——-

Same pilot here in Ontario 2018 via the Libs, exact same ending too lol!
————————————————————-

Lol that a program that helped keep people out of poverty was ended, even though it made a major improvement in their lives, didn’t remove the incentive to work and gave them a way out of poverty.

You really are a parasite, hovering up every subsidy you can get, bragging about paying no tax, and spitting on the poorest in our society

Looks like you are in a grumpy mood again today Mr. Tater.

The LOL was in reference to how both UBI pilots ended via a change in government.

Myself, I may be open to a UBI if a massive chunk of government bureaucracy gets axed at the same time. It’s totally possible this may reduce overall taxpayer burden.

Just an FYI, a UBI payment such as it was, in no way lifts anyone out of poverty. Not even close. No more than the current welfare system does. In fact, the effect is not even “a major improvement in their lives”. It was 1400.00 measly dollars per month. Peanuts. I’m surprised how many get behind this idea like it’s some kind of end to poverty.

As far as me soaking up the handouts, yep I do. It’s too easy as the host in my case freely offers itself for dinner, and I never turn down a free meal. I’ve never taken a dollar I didn’t qualify for, so once more: Don’t hate the player, hate the game homie!

Seriously, if you can’t stand my braggadocio regarding how little taxes I pay, quit voting for guys like Trudeau. Vote another Harper in, and my tax bill would double or triple in no time. You can shut me down with an “X”. Your vote carries consequences.

Just remember, I’m gonna chill like Flynt as long as Trudeau is running the show…

#13 Don Guillermo on 06.19.20 at 2:42 pm

#252 SeeB on 06.19.20 at 1:40 pm
@#108 Don Guillermo on 06.18.20 at 6:19 pm
Now, JT does the ad game with Covid-19… Can we all please stop lionizing our own personal political tribe and look at some of the most egregious common factors shared by ALL Canadian parties?
***************************************
Discussing JT in the same breath as Harper, Chretien, Mulroney, Martin etc. is ludicrous. Nothing to do with political tribe. JT is the most incompetent underqualified PM ever in Canadian history. JT had a chance to surround himself with qualified people but instead chose to spin the wheel with people based on gender, sexual preference and/or ethnicity.

#14 Mike Currie on 06.19.20 at 2:53 pm

Wealth is indeed often tied up in a business, which makes it very tricky to tax if you’re so inclined. And inclined we will be.

Wealth tax advocates will have a hard time valuing a car dealership or a plumbing company, so will they come after financial assets? You know, diddling with the dividend tax credit or bumping the capital gain inclusion rate? Maybe, but even the Feds know (or covid has made them realise) that discouraging savings and investment is the reason household financial numbers are so horrendous.

They need the money. Best option is to broaden the capital gains net by eliminating the exemption on principal residences. That’s where the money is (good old Willie Sutton) so stick ’em up.

#15 Looking up on 06.19.20 at 2:55 pm

I’ll bet the assets of the 1.6% that have 5 million or more are comprised mostly of real estate.

From what I’ve seen.

Principal residences are normally excluded from the calcs. – Garth

#16 Tim123 on 06.19.20 at 2:57 pm

It is ironic that most Canadians think that real estate can never go down and that it is a risk free asset. Most Canadians think that investing in the stock market is too risky. I guess this is a lesson many people will learn. Even if people end up bankrupt they can still learn an important lesson about diversification and that real estate can actually go down.
I also never understood why people dislike rich people. They are the ones paying the majority of the taxes. Anyways, I have been trading the equity markets and it’s been a good year, and I think it may become a great year with respect to returns. This volatility in the markets has really been nice for equity traders and having the central banks around the world putting a floor under equity markets is also nice.

#17 Puzzled on 06.19.20 at 3:06 pm

How did so many people get it wrong? Even though many of them vote and would likely support some absurd proposals from politicians, surely the costs to bail them out would be beyond our reach even if draconian taxes are introduced?

#18 Marco on 06.19.20 at 3:08 pm

Ya, bums vent on dole while Westons alike stood bravely against invisible adversary.
On front lines. Even paying 2 bucks en hour more to low lives who weren’t born into money. Wages of fear. Well, you did not think that will be forever? Did you?

#19 cramar on 06.19.20 at 3:11 pm

#3 TurnerNation on 06.19.20 at 1:46 pm

At present all are presumed guilty/sick until proven innocent/healthy.
We are considered dirty farm animals which must be kept outside. In my province I’m forbidden by law to sit down inside any establishment. Too dangerous. Seats are blocked off.

In one week in March the world fell in WW3. All culture from the Old System was banned. Sports, theatre, arts, Frosh week, kids bday parties, live music.. And remains banned. 24/7 CV propaganda was all that was shown on the telescreens. Globally.

In my province the government dictates every single step you take. Even your breathing is regulated. That’s right. Singing and dancing is forbidden by law on patios (keeping filthy animals like us outside) . Some are still in denial over this global communism. Understadable.

Those closed sports stadiums will remain closed. Likely where you will line up for your Freedom Needles. Submit to our new rulers Big Pharma and Big Tech. Get the Mark on your cell phone. They’ll stone you just like they said they would.

—————–

Most interesting take on the situation. On the other side is “mainstream” view that we are all familiar with—preventing the spread of a deadly virus (for some). Hence from a public health perspective, the conditions you mention make perfect sense. Which view is reality? Maybe a bit of both.

Your perspective is probably shared by tens of thousands of Trump supporters in Tulsa this weekend. We will see in the coming weeks which viewpoint is correct. This is going to be very interesting!

#20 IHCTD9 on 06.19.20 at 3:14 pm

#251 Faron on 06.19.20 at 1:39 pm
#237 IHCTD9 on 06.19.20 at 12:15 pm
#232 Faron on 06.19.20 at 11:56 am
#223 IHCTD9 on 06.19.20 at 10:36 am

Sounds like you’re assuming all business owners care about is making money?

They’re also people with ideas and opinions.

That’s a fair point, I fall into that trap. And I can see why any increase in wage is going to be challenging to small/medium sized business.

However, as businesses scale larger, the corporation becomes beholden to equity holders and many of them only care about ROI.
— ——

My original assertion was that increased wages in sufficient amounts will allow an increase prices, and the business owners will be the winners here – small ones too.

Eventually over years, the benefit of the wage increases will have eroded amidst rising prices as they are successfully put up. Thus living wage increases will provide a temporary time limited benefit. Really, all wage increases are the same, the benefits just don’t last.

Big business is where it starts getting really tough. Razor thin margins despite massive efforts at cost cutting. Technology, outsourcing, scale benefits, all maxed out. Global competition on an unfair playing field.

GM makes a 5-6% margin on a mind blowing Global effort expended over the course of 111 years. That sucks, I’d do better running a Lemonade stand. That’s the nature of the beast when big biz reaches the top of the food chain competing against the best in the world.

Same thing you see with Olympic sprinters, a collection of the best in the world. They don’t win by minutes, they win by hundredths of a second. Nothing comes easy at the top.

IMHO, big biz like GM would not be effected by minimum wage increases because they’re already paying them. Not a factor.

#21 Linda on 06.19.20 at 3:23 pm

Garth, I like many others have benefited from your advice over the years. The issue as I see it is that this recent crisis has proven that one doesn’t need to be fiscally prudent, or save, or think ahead. Spend & party as you will, the government will step in come the day of reckoning & provide income, protection in law from pesky landlords wanting their rent & forgiveness for anyone who ‘accidentally’ applied for & received benefits to which they were not strictly entitled. Even better from the financially pooched point of view, the government will then turn to those who were fiscally prudent & ask them to ‘pay a little more, it is only fair’. After all, who else is there? Obviously the indebted households described in todays post won’t have the ability to pay for this largesse – if they had done, the largesse would not have been required in the first place.

#22 SWL on 06.19.20 at 3:23 pm

@239 sunshowers

You simply don’t get it. If a 21 year old is still simply washing dishes expecting to make a living then they are simply failing. Why should I support someone with little ambition. Like I said before that is bears repeating. Anyone with real ambition doesn’t stay at minimum wage for long. I feel like our government mandated living wage is unfair to employers and washing dishes part time is better suited to a 15 year old to gain life and work experience

Just curious as to how many 15-21 year olds you employ?

#23 conan on 06.19.20 at 3:23 pm

#9 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.19.20 at 2:16 pm

It is not just “stupid” as far as fighting COVID . There is guaranteed blow back because of the location and date chosen. It is going to be a magnet for all sort of groups who do not like Trump, and what he represents. Trump wants something bad to happen. That is why he is not suited to be President.

#24 jess on 06.19.20 at 3:28 pm

off the balance sheet ?
AAA ratings and CLO’s VIE’s

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/tech/wirecard-fraud-tech-accounting/index.html
As a fully licensed German bank within the Wirecard Group, the Wirecard Bank offers innovative products and services for both business and private customers. Today, it is important that cashless payments are easy, quick and secure transactions with transparent processes.
=========================

story by Frank Partnoy

“cov lite.” and VIE’s – variable interest entities.

old off-the-books positions.
popular investment held in VIEs is securities backed by commercial mortgages, such as loans to shopping malls and office parks

opaque?
The Financial Stability Board, which monitors the global financial system, warned in December that 14 percent of CLOs—more than $100 billion worth—are unaccounted for.

CLOs have been praised by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for moving the risk of leveraged loans outside the banking system. Powell and Mnuchin have downplayed any trouble CLOs could pose for banks, arguing that the risk is contained within the CLOs themselves.

AAA ratings of CLO’s
How can the credit-rating agencies get away with this?
The answer is “default correlation,” a measure of the likelihood of loans defaulting at the same time.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/

This article appears in the July/August 2020 print edition with the headline “The Worst Worst Case.”
Frank Partnoy is a law professor at UC Berkeley.

#25 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 06.19.20 at 3:35 pm

#5 Faron on 06.19.20 at 1:54 pm
Investing question:…
If a 7% drop concerns you then really you have no reason to be playing with VIX. TVIX swings 5- 10 % on some days. It sometimes drops 20-50% in no time and recovers just a quick .. or never and reverse splits ever so often . Volatility hedging is pure speculation (gambling) and IMHO you should not use more then 5K to play with it and do expect to lose it all. Of course it’s your money so your choice ; but you asked.

#26 Calgary retiree on 06.19.20 at 3:36 pm

#117 Protester Work Ethic on 06.18.20 at 6:48 pm
“There is a sense of dignity and self-worth that comes when you are paid and have a task.”

Is this 1800s England? “Arbeit macht frei”?
————————————————

Bingo! That is the conservative mind-set flogged by this blog. This is why there must be no more conservative federal governments in Canada – ever!

Don’t like the blog? I have a cure for that. – Garth

————————————————
I like its educational value. Best insight into the fallacies of conservative thought that I know of.

#27 JB on 06.19.20 at 3:40 pm

#9 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.19.20 at 2:16 pm

Locked in this weekend?
Watch the Trump rally in Tulsa on your favorite Newscast.
Should be history making.
……………………………………………………
The best part will be him making the long trek up and down the ramps. Need a glass of water Donny? Here let me help you.

#28 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 3:41 pm

#9 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.19.20 at 2:16 pm

Locked in this weekend?

Watch the Trump rally in Tulsa on your favorite Newscast.

Should be history making.

————————-

Let me predict the MSM afterward:

1. Security and attendees will be accused of violence for ejecting rude and disruptive protesters
2. Dire predictions of Covid spread during the rally will be sensationalized. This will continue for weeks.
3. Attendees will be cast as redneck dullards. Only soundbite interviews reinforcing this stereotype will be shown.
4. Racism. Definitely racism. If a POC speaks enthusiastically in favour of Trump, the networks will have a commentator POC refuting all that was said.

And of course, SNL and late night comedians. But those would happen for anyone.

What do you think? Will the above hit 100% accuracy?

#29 jess on 06.19.20 at 3:43 pm

check out the debt on these companies
https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/companies-largest-debt-world-2020

#30 Dolce Vita on 06.19.20 at 3:50 pm

Garth, it’s a tale of 2 Canada’s.

Those that invest wisely and those that accrete debt unwisely.

Living beyond one’s means, skating on thin ice financially thinking there will be no economic shocks…never come to a good end and COVID-19 has laid that bare.

——————————————-

More depressing news from StatCan today on Retail Trade, $ amount rolled back 11 years:

Retail sales were down by just over one-quarter (-26.4%) in April to $34.7 billion, sales down in every subsector. Online sales surged to a record high, representing 9.5% of the total retail market in April.

-Depressing since it hasn’t been that low since June 2009 and a reasonable barometer for GDP which is 60% consumer led in Canada.

Only good thing I’ve seen so far is that VIX chart, then again that’s NOT mainstream Canada…that’s still hurting.

#31 Michael in-north-york on 06.19.20 at 3:53 pm

#249 Tater on 06.19.20 at 1:32 pm

So give us an example of a disastrous outcome for a currency issuer with debt in their own currency without some sort of grave real resource constraint.

OK:
https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0709/5-tales-of-out-of-control-inflation.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_copper_currency_in_Sweden

Acient Rome and the 17-th century Sweden had no grave real resource constraint.

Another instructive case is the 20-th century Eastern Block (communist) countries. Their governments controlled the consumer prices and were able to prevent a massive inflation, but at a price of supply shortages. Many goods were in short supply and the ordinary inhabitants were unable to buy them in the groceries or department stores.

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.19.20 at 4:02 pm

23 conan on 06.19.20 at 3:23 pm
#9 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.19.20 at 2:16 pm

It is not just “stupid” as far as fighting COVID . There is guaranteed blow back because of the location and date chosen. It is going to be a magnet for all sort of groups who do not like Trump, and what he represents. Trump wants something bad to happen. That is why he is not suited to be President.
—————————
As I said before, our problems are minor compared to what’s happening in Trump land.
I just hope it does not spill over.

#33 Rosedale Ricky on 06.19.20 at 4:02 pm

“There are 12,500,000 households (more or less) in the nation. Of those, 206,600 have managed to accumulate $5 million in assets, or more.”
————————————————————-
While that sounds like a lot to the average person scraping by, $5 million is the average cost of a house in my neighbourhood. My neighbour bought the home next to him for $7 million just for more privacy and to stop a developer from building a palace on it.

#34 Dolce Vita on 06.19.20 at 4:05 pm

#9 Ponzius Pilatus

Should be history making.

——————————————–

No one thing is more excited at the prospects of making history than COVID-19. Heard yelling YIPPEE from Tulsa where cases up 300% in just the past week alone.

Though, not all as excited as history maker COVID-19 is in Tulsa.

Dr. Whiteside:

“I’m a Tulsa emergency physician and conservative, and the Trump rally is a terrible idea. As a Physician my oath is to do no harm, and to sit silently on this matter feels wrong.”

Righty’s with a conscience, who knew?

#35 NoName on 06.19.20 at 4:06 pm

This article comfirms is what i was supsecting all this time ill be working stiff for ever… Interesting Read

Written communication is remote work super power
https://snir.dev/blog/remote-async-communication/

#36 Lost...but not leased on 06.19.20 at 4:10 pm

Dipper leader Jagmeet Singh did a victory lap on Parliament Hill this week after blackmailing the Trudeauites into another $34 billion in CERB payments. The program will have dished out roughly $90 billion to workers claiming a virus impact by the time it ends (Christmas).

GARTH
==========

In exchange for allowing the T2 gang to survive a money vote (confidence), Singh demanded – and received – the 16-week benefits extension. And so the most costly short-term social program in Canadian history continues.
=============

I wasn’t aware of this NDP stunt…

Seems like NDP leader is desperately trying to manufacture relevancy…when his winning of the NDP party leadership had many of us wondering if NDP was grasping at the last straw of virtue signalling.

Then NDP leader starts playing the ill- advised “race card” and gets the boot from parliament.

Then..they play the mafioso extortion game to force our PM clown to give away billion $$$ more,for another 6 months… mortgaging the future of many generations ? If he had any morals and a backbone he would have forced an election.

Let’s call it what it is…economic terrorism…to kill off what remains of the private sector.

We are DONE….and maybe good riddance…time to start over .

#37 Faron on 06.19.20 at 4:10 pm

#25 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 06.19.20 at 3:35 pm
#11 kommykim on 06.19.20 at 2:36 pm

Thanks for your answers. And points taken about reverse splits and lack of floor on these derived products.

kommyKim, I’m not talking about inverse VIX. My understanding is that those are much more dangerous given the effective asymmetry in -pct and +pct changes.

ElGato. I’m not talking leveraged VIX and the 7% was referring to portfolio or index drop, not VIX variability. VIXY went through about 6% today.

Say I have a portfolio worth 100k. If I had a crystal ball and bought 2% portfolio in VIXY and the rest was XBAL starting Jan 1. Peak to trough the 98k of XBAL would have dropped about 18k. The $2k in VIXY could have returned more than half of that potential loss *if I sold it right at peak*. If I hadn’t sold and just stayed long both XBAL and VIXY. The XBAL+VIXY portfoio would be up 1.8% while the XBAL only would be down a touch. Call it equal given my rudimentary numbers.

The difference is that looking at portfolio total performance at any time between then and now would be less likely to make someone like me freak out and want to sell. Like almost all insurance, a lot of the benefit has to do with psychology and peace of mind.

#38 Bill on 06.19.20 at 4:11 pm

Well written and I’m glad to be in 1.6% side. No debt…this sh#t show was very predictable. You cant buy fire insurance when the house is burning down.

#39 Borden Renter on 06.19.20 at 4:11 pm

It’s tempting to feed the trolls who belong on a Blog TO or CBC comments section, but I’ll pass.

It has all gone wrong, hasn’t it?

Equities are looking more and more to me like real-estate did a few years ago. Money is fleeing to places where it can grow, because it has to, no matter what reality says. Hertz stock gets pumped after going into bankruptcy. Apple stock soars during the early stages of a pandemic, when factories were closing… nothing makes sense. I could go on and on, but all I will say is that a market this detached from reality can only go on so long. The everything bubble will have to pop at some point. Right? How long can they digitally appear money into reality?

Canada itself is looking more and more like some banana republic that sold out their coastlines to international real-estate developers, to the detriment of their own citizens. All to keep the coat of paint fresh on the decaying infrastructure.

I’m just a normal guy trying to preserve the value in my capital that I’ve spent years saving up. One market swing for the worse would see a fair chunk of it wiped out. I worry about my parent’s pensions because they don’t have enough saved to get them through a downturn if things get really ugly. Thankfully they own all their assets… which may be worth little if housing crashes because no one can afford a house anymore.

I just can’t help but feel something big is on the near horizon and I’m unsure of what to do. The more I watch the news, the more I want to move to a rural farm, focus on me and my family, and shut out the modern world. I know I’m not the only one with this sentiment.

#40 GladIStayedTheCourse on 06.19.20 at 4:14 pm

I certainly experienced a perfect V-shaped recovery.

Between February 20th and March 24th I was down 25.4%! Ouch!

But that’s all recovered.

Returns:
Year-to-date: Up 6.9%
Trailing 12 months: Up 12.7%

I didn’t touch a thing. Looked at it every day, but not once did I consider making adjustments.

#41 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.19.20 at 4:15 pm

Many posters here are constantly complaining.
Trudeau this and Trudeau that.
Personally, I go with JFK’s:
“Don’t ask what the country can do for you, ask what you can do for the country”
I hear that Granville Island merchants are suffering and Vancouver is in danger of losing one of its Crown Jewels.
So I will take my family down there for Father’s Day, for a nice lunch, ice cream and shopping for fresh produce.
Hope the buskers are still there.

#42 Monica on 06.19.20 at 4:16 pm

Should I sell all the big 5 bank stocks with heavy loss for index etf?

#43 Dolce Vita on 06.19.20 at 4:18 pm

#28 Sail away

Will the above hit 100% accuracy?

——————————————–

No.

COVID-19 in Tulsa hitting 300% in just the past week alone.

Why it is excited about the 100,000 strong BOK Center Trump rally (a.k.a., a Petri Dish Buffet if you’re COVID-19).

It’s just lookin’ for hosts, they’ll be plenty to graze on there…as for the rest, Mother Nature just knows red tooth and claw is all…human political machinations, not her thing.

#44 Faron on 06.19.20 at 4:23 pm

#28 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 3:41 pm

Let me predict the MSM afterward:

What do you think? Will the above hit 100% accuracy?

I’d give you 83% fidelity in interpretation of the likely MSM response.

1) If the ejections happen without assault, then fine. If a Trump supporter assaults a non-Trump supporter without physical provocation, that’s worthy of being aired and is “inappropriate”.

2) Probably

3) True, but it will also be likely that most reporters will have a hard time finding anyone who isn’t a dullard. However, this may be the case at any rally. Don’t people have blog comments to make? Why waste time at a rally?

4) Maybe. Lets see how many “stars and bars” we see in the mix before the score is tallied.

I think Ponzie is correct, it will be entertaining for all. +- inspiring.

#45 Tater on 06.19.20 at 4:28 pm

#31 Michael in-north-york on 06.19.20 at 3:53 pm
#249 Tater on 06.19.20 at 1:32 pm

So give us an example of a disastrous outcome for a currency issuer with debt in their own currency without some sort of grave real resource constraint.

OK:
https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0709/5-tales-of-out-of-control-inflation.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_copper_currency_in_Sweden

Acient Rome and the 17-th century Sweden had no grave real resource constraint.

Another instructive case is the 20-th century Eastern Block (communist) countries. Their governments controlled the consumer prices and were able to prevent a massive inflation, but at a price of supply shortages. Many goods were in short supply and the ordinary inhabitants were unable to buy them in the groceries or department stores.
————————————-

“The face value of the copper coins in circulation now greatly exceeded the reserves of the state and production of the national economy, and quickly the value of the currency fell to its commodity value, which in a country where copper was so abundant, was small indeed. The savings of the people of Sweden were wiped out.”

There’s your real resource constraint. Sweden issued debt in a currency (copper) they didn’t control.

Couple others. Weimar Republic has USD denominated debt and lacked the productive capacity to service it ( there’s debt in a Currency you don’t control again) and so started printing, and devalued their currency. The real resource constraint here was productive capacity damaged by war as a topper.

Zimbabwe, do you really want to argue that one of the poorest countries in the world didn’t face real resource constraints? One that has to import machinery, fuel and food?

Let look at the inverse. Why hasn’t Japan suffered hyper inflation as all the hard money advocates have said they would over the last 30 years?

#46 Rosedale Ricky on 06.19.20 at 4:30 pm

15 Looking up on 06.19.20 at 2:55 pm
“I’ll bet the assets of the 1.6% that have 5 million or more are comprised mostly of real estate.

Principal residences are normally excluded from the calcs. – Garth
————————————————————-

In my neighbourhood, the average house is above $5 million. Two doors down from me lives someone, who shall remain anonymous but who everyone on this blog would know, is probably a bona fide billionaire.

#47 Flanneur on 06.19.20 at 4:40 pm

“No realtors involved” what a lovely statement.

I can’t deny I’m getting some enjoyment watching realtors that think too much of themselves sit around and find out they don’t conduct the market.

I still haven’t met a realtor who will buy a b/d portfolio. Seems they think it’s a sign of failure.

#48 Raccoon with Raybies on 06.19.20 at 4:48 pm

Garth, will money protect your pooch from climate change?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2020-06-19/these-dog-breeds-are-the-most-vulnerable-to-heat-climate-change?srnd=premium-europe

#49 Yukon Elvis on 06.19.20 at 5:10 pm

#42 Monica on 06.19.20 at 4:16 pm
Should I sell all the big 5 bank stocks with heavy loss for index etf?
………………………………

Go ahead and sell, I will buy them. I buy the ones that pay 5+% every three months.

#50 Jager on 06.19.20 at 5:24 pm

Is France falling into anarchy?

Note the various disillusioned groups.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jerome_riviere/status/1272938386098204672

https://mobile.twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1272603546165358592

https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1272944260535418881

https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian56789/status/1273200230213787648

https://mobile.twitter.com/BasedPoland/status/1218632479680204800

Is there an unseen hand orchestrating the cacophony of social unrest? A less esoteric view submits that perceived injustices (social/economic) by the disaffected have simply reached critical mass. Absence of both honest and open dialogue induces frustration not infrequently leading to cruelty and violence.

The limitations (defects) of the foregoing and current political class across the West is under scrutiny. It appears that many (post boomers) are now demanding a more “direct” say in their governance (e.g. policy formation behind closed doors and consent of the status quo have become much less tolerable).

A long hot summer could lead to a cold bitter winter.

#51 Bill on 06.19.20 at 5:27 pm

#3 TurnerNation on 06.19.20 at 1:46 pm
+1

#52 MagnumMtl on 06.19.20 at 5:39 pm

in Montreal I am seeing rentals offering a free month – haven’t seen that since the 90’s

#53 gattu on 06.19.20 at 5:42 pm

There are 12.4 million households, 8.5 million of which own homes. Of those, 43% have mortgages. – Garth

https://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/showTable.cfm?type=CP&sector=res&juris=ca&rn=21&page=5

12.4 million households, against a housing stock of 15.5 million. Why are prices rising again?

#54 Shirl Clarts on 06.19.20 at 5:49 pm

#13 Don Guillermo on 06.19.20 at 2:42 pm
#252 SeeB on 06.19.20 at 1:40 pm
@#108 Don Guillermo on 06.18.20 at 6:19 pm
Now, JT does the ad game with Covid-19… Can we all please stop lionizing our own personal political tribe and look at some of the most egregious common factors shared by ALL Canadian parties?
***************************************
Discussing JT in the same breath as Harper, Chretien, Mulroney, Martin etc. is ludicrous. Nothing to do with political tribe. JT is the most incompetent underqualified PM ever in Canadian history. JT had a chance to surround himself with qualified people but instead chose to spin the wheel with people based on gender, sexual preference and/or ethnicity.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Don. Ok we get it. you don’t like JT. Yikes!

But are you saying that someone is not qualified to work in government if you are a visible minority, a member of the LGBTQ, or Female?

Aren’t you attacking JT’s qualifications?

Make up your mind.

#55 Reality is stark on 06.19.20 at 5:51 pm

All these little stories are nice reading but are not the big story.
What is truly disturbing is the historic redistribution of wealth from the private to the public sector.
When this occurs nations deteriorate.
The longer it takes the lunatics in charge to address the problem the closer the country moves towards insolvency.
We have much larger problems than the “rich”.
People in this country rarely discuss building better mousetraps but they all know how most social programs operate and what benefits they can expect from a family court redistribution.
We can look forward to poverty in all it’s glory.

#56 JacqueShellacque on 06.19.20 at 5:59 pm

“What would cause markets to stumble and fall – that we’ve not already faced?”

The inability to provide further stimulus that isn’t completely made up money? An order for a 2nd shutdown that goes unheeded or causes violent pushback? Is it possible you’re taking a victory lap a little too soon, Garth?

#57 Genesis II on 06.19.20 at 6:07 pm

“Cash Cows”? They look like ‘steak cows’ to me!

“But billionaires are rare. We could use more of these job-creating titans. And wealthy people are cash cows for the government. The top 10% now pay 54% of all the income taxes. That allows forty per cent of households to pay nothing, net of government benefits.”

Had an agrument with a ‘leftie’ friend (although I’ve recently been told that lefties don’t have “friends”, only comrades – which appears to be true), about the notion that ‘Billionaires ought to be banished’, for the good of society.
I bit my tongue but mustered to say this: “I’m sure you’d have a different opinion if you had managed to be in the 1%, or even the 0.1%”.

I don’t think we’re friends any more…probably for the better.

#58 Shirl Clarts on 06.19.20 at 6:08 pm

#38 Bill on 06.19.20 at 4:11 pm
Well written and I’m glad to be in 1.6% side. No debt…this sh#t show was very predictable. You cant buy fire insurance when the house is burning down.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Really? Predictable. Did you make any predictions in February?

#59 Marc Perreault on 06.19.20 at 6:08 pm

Eight million people (of a workforce of 19 million) went on the dole.

Why does the Feds only report unemployment % based on those actually on EI? That number is only about 14% but the true number would probably be 40%. Trying to make things appear better than it actually is?

#60 JacqueShellacque on 06.19.20 at 6:11 pm

#5 Faron

Like you I’ve thought about hedging against the badness. Not a 7% drop, but more like a 30% or so. Garth, Ryan, and Doug et al will advise against considering such possibilities. But it can happen. In fact, it’s consequential – as Nassim Taleb points out, someone invested for the last 50 years would’ve doubled their CAGR if they’d just missed the 10 worst days in that time frame. 10 days in 50 years!

[WARNING: PRETTY BORING] The balanced portfolio paradigm is based on asset pricing models that have the fluctuations in the values themselves as the only source of randomness. As Douglas Hubbard points out, if a nuclear power plant did this, you’d need multiple meltdowns in order to properly account for risk. Worse, these fluctuations are assumed to be the variance around a normally distributed mean, which means outliers are considered (a) rare, (b) inconsequential, and (c) exponentially less likely as you move further away from the mean. So this actually understates risk. Further, the Austrian business cycle theory view states that stimulus and artificially lowered interest rates mess up intertemporal decision making and this has a way of reasserting itself, resulting in nasty crashes. Use Tobin’s Q as a measure of this. It “should” be 1, for the last little while it’s been around 2. In essence, this theory predicts markets are seriously overvalues.

What do I do? Like you, I’ve got some VIX (a call at $55, expiring in November). Also I do a poor man’s version of a Mark Spitznagel tail hedge – 0.5% of the portfolio in a put on QQQ (NASDAQ index) expiring in 2 months at a strike price 30% below the current. It costs peanuts (you can get like 6 contracts for a few hundred bucks) but protects you against sudden drops. Sell it after one month, rinse and repeat.

#61 Lost...but not leased on 06.19.20 at 6:17 pm

Permanent ???
or temporary ???

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/19/880930206/apple-closing-11-stores-again-in-states-seeing-a-spike-in-coronavirus-cases

#62 The Watcher ... Third Post on 06.19.20 at 6:18 pm

When everyone was having phone disruptions this week – they were installing Covid 19 trackers to our phones. If you have an android phone go under settings, then GOOGLE settings and it is there. If you have an Iphone go to Settings, Privacy, then Health…. What the Blazes is going on !!!!!

#63 Bank Stocks on 06.19.20 at 6:27 pm

Great post Garth, thank you
To the post about selling bank stocks,
While I cannot give financial advice, I will give you some things to think about.
If you bought a five year GIC would you look at the price every day? Short answer no. So look at the bank stocks like a GIC, buy it and put it away, collect the 5 percent dividend for five years and then write us back and say wow on Capital Gains.
There is another thought, follow Garths advice and buy ETFs, there are lots with banks in them. Look up BMO ETFs and do some research ZEB pays monthly almost 5 percent annually, ker Ching.
You could take the loss on Bank stocks and switch to bank ETFs? The next monthly ex dividend date is coming up around the 22nd of the month.
There are lots of rumours about banks, think about this…. one million people skipped mortgages, one million businesses will go under and they all have debt, and low interest rates are terrible for bank earnings. Scared yet?
Think five years out and stop looking at the charts I am buying ZEB and ZWC Which Pays almost 9 percent, I am all in on dividends.
My hot tip buy banks on the next dip and in 20 years retire a king make sure in your TFSA
Good luck !
Opps I guess I gave financial advice, sorry.

#64 AM in MN on 06.19.20 at 6:28 pm

History is lost on those who make it…

I think we are in revolutionary times, as Victor Davis Hanson has just pointed out. Canada and the UK somewhat following the US. A cultural and economic Marxist revolution, just like what has been preached in the Universities as necessary for so long now. Burn it all down!

There are examples to draw from for those who don’t know what comes next. From 1919 to about 1922 the Communists took over Russia through money printing, handed out to their supporters and security forces, like Venezuela today, as well as a strangulation of private business and property owners. South Africa today on a slower track but the same direction.

Once it starts it’s hard to stop. The mob won’t take no for an answer, you must all kneel to their demands. As VDH points out, this only ends in two ways, either a permanent change to the ancient constitutional order we’ve lived with but now seem so ashamed of, or a reaction back…and Trump takes 40 states and the GOP the House.

Proposals now to tear down the Statue of Liberty… we’ll see if they do it before the election. So far, my money’s on the mob.

Canada will be effected, one way or the other.

#65 Rowdie on 06.19.20 at 6:29 pm

Wow! BC NDP got kicked out of parliament. No kidding. What a stupid remark he suggested to the Quebec side. This racism is getting out of control, and is so stupid. Logically you cannot change the way people feel, to me I really don’t care, if people, whoever they are, are nice to me I am nice to them, either black, white or poka tod… humans beings are sometimes presumptuous.. get over it, there is more important things to worry about….

#66 Zed on 06.19.20 at 6:30 pm

Hi Garth,

You mentioned before that we should always take money offered by the government, i know you were talking about CPP, but why say people should not apply for CERB if they are allowed? I agree with your arguments from yesterday but free money…

Another thing about CPP; i don’t need the extra income at age 60 and that money would be taxed at 50+%, should i just give that not required money to a charity or delay to age 60 or 70 for a higher payout and then even more for charities?

#67 IHCTD9's Psychiatrist on 06.19.20 at 6:34 pm

#233 Tater on 06.19.20 at 11:59 am
#225 IHCTD9 on 06.19.20 at 11:18 am

You really are a parasite, hovering up every subsidy you can get, bragging about paying no tax, and spitting on the poorest in our society.
————————————————————–

You are wasting your time engaging in any kind of dialogue with IHCDT9. He is as you point out a hypocrite but beyond that, he is an economic ignoramus who doesn’t understand the Keynesian system he lives in and thinks that the low tax, small government society espoused by the Friedmanites of the world will bring universal utopia. He would be begging for handouts outside of his local Canadian Tire store in that world but he is too dense to realize it. Save your time and ignore his mindless babble…

#68 Alan Greenspan on 06.19.20 at 6:37 pm

#61 AM in MN on 06.19.20 at 6:28 pm

Please explain why then, Japan, the money printing champion of the world with a debt to GDP ratio that makes Canada look like the Austrian School of Economics on steroids is actually battling DEFLATION not the hyper inflation you are bleating about. Please o wise one, explain that one…

#69 Alan Greenspan on 06.19.20 at 6:41 pm

#60 JacqueShellacque on 06.19.20 at 6:11 pm
#5 Faron

“Like you I’ve thought about hedging against the badness. Not a 7% drop, but more like a 30% or so. Garth, Ryan, and Doug et al will advise against considering such possibilities….”
——————————————————

The reason the esteemed gentlemen who run this blog advise against a 30% drop is because the Fed will never let it happen. They will keep financial asset prices going no matter what. There is no limit to what they can print…

#70 Lost...but not leased on 06.19.20 at 6:42 pm

#50 Jager on 06.19.20 at 5:24 pm
Is France falling into anarchy?

Note the various disillusioned groups.

Is there an unseen hand orchestrating the cacophony of social unrest?

============================

Yawwnnnn

Nothing new there…in hindsight and context.

Recall French Revolution and how it got the masses co- opted into the fraudulent form of Gov’t vis -a-vis “democracy” ….ie Mob Rule. Only fitting that France is likely the first European domino to go down.

Suggest Juri Lina documentary….” IN THE SHADOW OF HERMES”… ..and Bolshevik Revolution….how NYC Banksters funded this given Russia was becoming a threat to status- quo to Central Banks. Once Russia went down…they simply set up WW 1 and WW 2, then Cold War….etc. etc.

Banksters’ bogus economy has run its course,….Bankster – funded revolution coming soon to a future gulag near you.

#71 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 6:44 pm

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.19.20 at 4:02 pm
23 conan on 06.19.20 at 3:23 pm
#9 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.19.20 at 2:16 pm

[The Trump rally] is going to be a magnet for all sort of groups who do not like Trump, and what he represents. Trump wants something bad to happen. That is why he is not suited to be President.

——————–

Yep, that freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and freedom of expression is a real bitch, especially when a president takes it literally and assumes they are just allowed to act on their freedoms.

I would much rather support somebody who let public sentiment and detractors prevent him and his supporters from exercising their constitutional rights.

That would be way better.

#72 Deano on 06.19.20 at 6:47 pm

Come on Garth, let’s do the numbers of small and medium business owners-how many work for them? Are billionaires REALLY the wealth creators you think they are? I doubt it, there is tonnes of evidence to the contrary-read Piketty for a start, he’ll set you straight, if your mind is open even a crack to the possibility.

#73 -=withwings=- on 06.19.20 at 6:57 pm

@13 Don G

JT had a chance to surround himself with qualified people but instead chose to spin the wheel with people based on gender, sexual preference and/or ethnicity.

Because as all conservatives know, women can’t possibly be qualified to do anything.

@28 sail away


Let me predict the MSM afterward:

1. Security and attendees will be accused of violence for ejecting rude and disruptive protesters

because anyone beaten and ejected by trumps goons obviously deserved it, so why cover it?

2. Dire predictions of Covid spread during the rally will be sensationalized. This will continue for weeks.

It will take two weeks to know what happened, and if anything does happen it should not be reported. if you dont test for covid, you dont have covid. why does MSM not understand that?

3. Attendees will be cast as redneck dullards. Only soundbite interviews reinforcing this stereotype will be shown.
Look at the ‘who voted for Trump’ charts. It wasn’t PhD’s of America. And it’s in the redneck belt.

4. Racism. Definitely racism. If a POC speaks enthusiastically in favour of Trump, the networks will have a commentator POC refuting all that was said.

Everything any trump supporter says is 100% correct with no other viewpoints possible. Facts dont matter as much as Alternative Facts anyway. No one should ever attempt to fact check Trump or one of his supporters, by definition they are always correct.

What do you think? Will the above hit 100% accuracy?

here is my list:

1) Trump will call out those wearing a mask, encite the crowd to turn on them and they will be kicked out.
2) Trump will state that Covid was a hoax, and note that everyone in attendance looks ‘healthy’
3) Turmp will mimic a liberal/disabled person and mock them somehow by talking like he has a mental problem
4) Trump will trot out a person of color, as a good friend, who will insist that by inciting riots Trump is a true friend of the black people
5) BONUS: he gets the name of his ‘good friend’ token black person wrong.
6) DOUBLE BONUS: gives a medal of freedom to sean hannity

How did I do?

#74 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 6:57 pm

#67 IHCTD9’s Psychiatrist on 06.19.20 at 6:34 pm
#233 Tater on 06.19.20 at 11:59 am
#225 IHCTD9 on 06.19.20 at 11:18 am

You really are a parasite, hovering up every subsidy you can get, bragging about paying no tax, and spitting on the poorest in our society.

——————-

…he is an economic ignoramus who doesn’t understand the Keynesian system he lives in and thinks that the low tax, small government society espoused by the Friedmanites of the world will bring universal utopia. He would be begging for handouts outside of his local Canadian Tire store in that world but he is too dense to realize it. Save your time and ignore his mindless babble…

——————-

There’s that ‘would’. Woulda, shoulda, coulda live in Imaginationland.

IH is doing. And succeeding quite well, it appears.

Amusing that makes some people so angry. Good of you to weigh in with your venom, though. Helpful.

#75 Michael in-north-york on 06.19.20 at 7:00 pm

#45 Tater on 06.19.20 at 4:28 pm

“The face value of the copper coins in circulation now greatly exceeded the reserves of the state and production of the national economy, and quickly the value of the currency fell to its commodity value, which in a country where copper was so abundant, was small indeed. The savings of the people of Sweden were wiped out.”

There’s your real resource constraint. Sweden issued debt in a currency (copper) they didn’t control.

Couple others. Weimar Republic has USD denominated debt and lacked the productive capacity to service it ( there’s debt in a Currency you don’t control again) and so started printing, and devalued their currency. The real resource constraint here was productive capacity damaged by war as a topper.

Zimbabwe, do you really want to argue that one of the poorest countries in the world didn’t face real resource constraints? One that has to import machinery, fuel and food?

Let look at the inverse. Why hasn’t Japan suffered hyper inflation as all the hard money advocates have said they would over the last 30 years?
—–

Sweden had lots of copper mines and produced a lot of copper. They did not have a constrain, they had abundance of their currency material and that abundance led to problems.

Japan can sustain its debt because there are enough buyers for its government bonds at a low interest rate. Modern developed nations succeeded in using government bonds as a sponge that removes excess liquidity from the market and forestalls inflation.

The ability to sustain the current debt level does not prove that any amount of debt is sustainable. Certainly, a tipping point exists; going beyond that point will result in a currency crisis.

#76 tony on 06.19.20 at 7:08 pm

Hi Garth – you focus so much on income tax and the rich all too often resort to indestructible offshore tax havens.
but you never mention Sales Taxes. with a sales tax you can still protect the poor but luxury goods can carry a higher rate and Alberta needs to put one in to get them out of their troubles. artful use of the HST can help restore some sanity to the Govt’s coffers. plus stopping the constant reduction in big business tax rates.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.20 at 7:15 pm

@#22 SWL
“Just curious as to how many 15-21 year olds you employ?’
+++

I employ 40-50 year olds that ACT 15….does that get an honourable mention?

#78 Sunburned canuck on 06.19.20 at 7:16 pm

Canadians should be breaking out the Champagne and celebrating.
Had the Prince of Canadian politics ( you know,,the rock star with socks) been granted a seat on the Security council, the open checkbook would have added another 100 Billion to the debt pile. Thank god that didn’t happen!!

#79 Nonplused on 06.19.20 at 7:17 pm

So if we took all of Galen’s 8 billion, it would fund the CERB for 27 days? And who is going to buy his bakeries and grocery stores to raise the money?

Therein lies the problem with the “tax the rich” and “UBI forever” crowd’s ideas. They can’t do math and they don’t understand economics or wealth. Wealth is not money and wealth cannot be used to pay for things unless it is liquidated, but to liquidate it you have to have a buyer.

Stating that Galen is worth $8 billion means that his bakeries and grocery stores are worth $8 billion or approximately 330,000 Toyota Corollas. It doesn’t mean he has $8 billion in cash or 330,000 Corollas. Money is just a way of comparing the relative value of things like bakeries and grocery stores to the value of of other things like say Corollas. He couldn’t even buy 330,000 Corollas unless he could sell the bakeries and grocery stores and even if he could find a buyer he’d have to pay tax on any capital gains which are probably substantial, so he might not even end up with enough money to buy 250,000 Corollas. See? Not so rich after all. And part of the problem for the rich is that he probably only needs 1 Corolla. And Toyota sells more than 1 million Corollas a year (worldwide) so Galen doesn’t even have enough money to corner that market for more than a few months.

And the government would then need to immediately turn their attention to whoever bought the bakeries and grocery stores because obviously they are very rich also.

“Oh no that’s not how it would work, it would be an annual charge like a property tax.” Well, my guess is Galen is already paying property taxes on his bakeries and grocery stores, so there is that. His businesses and employees are probably also paying income taxes so there is also that. When he dies there will be a huge capital gains tax due so there is also also that. But let’s slap on another 5% per year in wealth taxes on the $8 billion. That’s $400 million a year in magical money for the government! Whahoo! But where is Galen going to get this money seeing as he doesn’t likely have it sitting in a bank account somewhere? Well, the price of bread is going to have to go up. So once again we see that no matter where the government imposes a tax, we all pay it rich and poor alike. It just gets buried in the final price.

And I haven’t even gotten started on the mess that would be involved in trying to calculate everyone’s “wealth”. Because yes they would have to audit everyone and mark everything to market. But mark to market numbers are notional. You don’t really know what anything is worth until you sell it. And much of the wealth of the nation is found in all the Corollas in the parking lot in front of the Super Store, not just in the building. So don’t believe that 28% of the nation’s wealth is held by only 1.6% of the population. That statistic is measuring “productive” assets only. If you add in all of the Corollas, RV’s, houses, washing machines, HDTV’s, etc., etc., etc., you would get a very different number. Using Garth’s numbers, there are 5.7 million houses out there that do not have a mortgage. Using an average house price of $500,000 just out of the air, that means there is a whooping $2,850 billion dollars worth of wealth out there that is just houses that do not have a mortgage!!!! If we assume, again, just out of the air, that the average mortgage is about 50% of the value of the house, the total equity rises to $3,760 billion, just in owner occupied housing! And I haven’t begun to calculate the value of all the Corollas, RV’s, and HDTV’s. The truth of the matter is that wealth in Canada is very distributed and as is the case with all statistics, the answer you get is highly dependent on what you measure.

Now just imagine for a minute what would happen if those 5.7 million home owners who do not have a mortgage decided to follow Garth’s advice and get one and use the proceeds to invest in a Garth ™ balanced portfolio? No doubt the TSE would double.

The fact of the matter is that we are richer than we think. But it is human nature to assume there is a grave miscarriage of justice if a guy who owns a bakery is riding around in an A8 while all you have is a house and a Corolla, paid for by your job at the bakery. Human kind has been struggling for 200,000 years to produce the sort of wealth we Canadians now take for granted and aren’t satisfied with. We’ve never had it so good. 150 years ago a farmer would have been thrilled to have the tractor I use to mow my lawn. And he’d probably think my cell phone was a demon and burn me at the stake for owning it. Oh I forgot to include garden tractors and cell phones in the wealth calculation, there are a lot of those out there too.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.20 at 7:22 pm

@#30 Dolce Vita
“Retail sales were down by just over one-quarter (-26.4%) in April to $34.7 billion, sales down in every subsector. Online sales surged to a record high, representing 9.5% of the total retail market in April.”

++++

I expect Retail sales of many types to go the way of the Sears catalogue in less than 10 years.
Amazon, Google are crushing bricks and mortar shops.
Retail landlords are probably crapping their pantaloons as well.

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.20 at 7:30 pm

@#32Ponzie Preamble
“our problems are minor compared to what’s happening in Trump land.”
+++

ponzie ponzie ponzie.

Totally different probs.
Canuckda hasnt has its economic/real estate meltdown like the USA in 2008/09
We will be crushed either by Trudeau spending our economy into some sort of Mexican debt OR he will be forced to trun off the CERB taps and let the brainless idiots that ran up such massive debt…..eat it.

The US is experiencing an election year with a nasty, self serving ,vapid, loon at the helm and a dementia ward applicant as the other choice….
All while the internet ( with foreign help?)spews out every vile conspiracy theory thought up by paranoid Covid refugees.

The covid show aint over by a long shot and this Fall/Winter flu season could be the great equalizer.

As the world economy …..sssssllllloooowwwwssss down.

……but you just keep verbally farting while I do the real thing.

#82 Ace Goodheart on 06.19.20 at 7:31 pm

Reading through these comments it appears to me that people might have started the slow awakening to the fact that we are stuck with COVID and there likely will not be a vaccine.

Fortunately we are all quite brave.

Up until now we have been fearless.

Suddenly it is possible for people to die.

We used to all live forever. No one ever died. People just kept going. Immortality was wonderful.

Now we are all reminded that life is followed by death.

So to preserve our immortality we look at life, look at what makes it fun. What we enjoy. What we look forward to. And take all that away. Ban fun.

My kids ask me why the playground is still closed. No kids have died of COVID. The numbers keep going down.

Why can a child not play on a swing? Or slide down a slide?

The answer of course is that fun is banned. Someone might see that child swinging or sliding, and become upset.

We have to think of people’s feelings after all.

So we all stay home. No more travel. No more public events. No sports. Everything virtual online.

Private events only. Increase private social bubbles so those with the means can enjoy themselves. Anyone reliant on public infrastructure for their fun is out of luck.

Now, we do not fear the virus anymore. We fear the state and what it can do to you.

#83 A Dollar is a Dollar is a Dollar on 06.19.20 at 7:34 pm

Simply not true, Garth.

Here’s a report about an objective study of the most wealthy and the myths that are promoted about them.

https://inequality.org/research/selfmade-myth-hallucinating-rich/

Looking at different categories of the 1%ers, the authors say:

“Of the over 60 percent remaining, all grew up in substantial privilege.”

Inheritance is only one part of the tremendous privileges given to the rich, unlike the 95% of people who have no such thing.

Here’s what we need –

Wealth taxes.

Inheritance taxes.

Taxing all dollars equally, from whatever source and however they may be gained.

A dollar is a dollar is a dollar.

#84 Nonplused on 06.19.20 at 7:35 pm

PS I probably should have also included some economic philosophy about what the value that we each sort of own as a result of public roads, schools, hospitals, lands, parks, soccer fields, stadiums, transit systems, water and sewer and the like which are available to all at very reasonable fees. Just the roads alone probably rival housing and the rich do not own those any more than you do. A true economist would attribute your share of those assets to your net worth as well. They have an economic value even though it is not marked to market.

So stop your whining. As I wrote yesterday as stated by my friend’s father, the difference between the rich and the poor in Canada is that the rich smoke more expensive cigars, drink more expensive scotch, and date younger women. So go back to your xbox and realize that only 50 years ago nobody could afford such a thing, but you can.

#85 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.19.20 at 7:37 pm

#79 Nonplused on 06.19.20 at 7:17 pm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Very well said. I wish more people would realize the truth in it.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.20 at 7:38 pm

@#46 Rosedale Ricky
“Two doors down from me lives someone, who shall remain anonymous but who everyone on this blog would know, is probably a bona fide billionaire.”
+++

Smoking Man is your neighbour?
Hows he doing?

#87 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 7:40 pm

#79 Nonplused on 06.19.20 at 7:17 pm

—————

Well said.

#88 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 06.19.20 at 7:41 pm

We are having outbreaks and don’t need you messing up our healthcare resources. This is far from over.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#89 Bezengy on 06.19.20 at 7:43 pm

Watching the news headlines this morning scrolling on the bottom of the screen. First comes the news there will be a 260 billion deficit, and next we have the PBO reporting the 1 % own 28% of the wealth. Here’s the problem, and here’s the solution. Nothing subliminal about it, nothing to figure out for yourself, just repeat after me, and again, one more time please.

#90 Do we have all the facts on 06.19.20 at 7:44 pm

Large scale interventions by Central banks have definitely influenced implicit value within various stock exchanges.

The impact of the Covid 19 virus lockdown definitely influenced the explicit value of many individual stocks that form the foundation of numerous forms of securities.

The belief that explicit value of most companies will improve as our economy gets back to normal has a strong impact on current implicit values.

In many ways all stock markets have become focussed on improving implicit values through consumer confidence.

A decline in explicit value presents an opportunity to ride the wave on the way up. An increase in explicit value presents an opportunity to realize profits as companies expand.

Major events like the Covid 19 lockdown impact both implicit and explicit values but as a general rule stock markets and their legions of supporters remain dedicated to the restoration of consumer confidence.

Reality might be based on the explicit value of companies within an economy but illusions of financial happiness are dependant on implicit value.

It is fairly clear what view is winning this disconnect!

#91 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 7:46 pm

#73 -=withwings=- on 06.19.20 at 6:57 pm

here is my list:

1) Trump will call out those wearing a mask, encite the crowd to turn on them and they will be kicked out.
2) Trump will state that Covid was a hoax, and note that everyone in attendance looks ‘healthy’
3) Turmp will mimic a liberal/disabled person and mock them somehow by talking like he has a mental problem
4) Trump will trot out a person of color, as a good friend, who will insist that by inciting riots Trump is a true friend of the black people
5) BONUS: he gets the name of his ‘good friend’ token black person wrong.
6) DOUBLE BONUS: gives a medal of freedom to sean Hannity

How did I do?

——————-

Well, looking at your list objectively, it appears you just put that together to take cheap jabs.

But I’m happy to tabulate and report back. Maybe you’re not all theatrics, who knows?

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.20 at 7:46 pm

@#54 Shirl Charts
“But are you saying that someone is not qualified to work in government if you are a visible minority, a member of the LGBTQ, or Female?”
++++

No he is saying they are hired BECAUSE they are a visible minority, LGBTQQ2, female, a combination of the above, etc etc etc.,
Reverse racism? Who can say.
Qualifications are secondary.
Trudeau is a politician, he has to pander to everyone in this day and age to get re-elected.
And from what I’m hearing on the street…..everyone is tiring of his “human resources, social worker” agenda….
Just wait until the Canadian CERB payments come due on the international bond markets……
TAXES UPPA UPPA UPPA

Its amazing the Gerald Butts can make a Prime Minister dance to his socialist agenda.

P.S.
Do you have air conditioning garth? My friends in halifax are melting tonight……

#93 Drinking on 06.19.20 at 7:48 pm

Looked at a Kia today for the first time; test drove it, laughed, absolutely not mocking anyone that owns one, just not for me, and walked away. Anyways, interesting blog today Garth.Time will tell!

#94 no blog for old men on 06.19.20 at 7:59 pm

@#74 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 6:57 pm
#67 IHCTD9’s Psychiatrist on 06.19.20 at 6:34 pm
#233 Tater on 06.19.20 at 11:59 am
#225 IHCTD9 on 06.19.20 at 11:18 am

You really are a parasite, hovering up every subsidy you can get, bragging about paying no tax, and spitting on the poorest in our society.

——————-

…he is an economic ignoramus who doesn’t understand the Keynesian system he lives in and thinks that the low tax, small government society espoused by the Friedmanites of the world will bring universal utopia. He would be begging for handouts outside of his local Canadian Tire store in that world but he is too dense to realize it. Save your time and ignore his mindless babble…

——————-

There’s that ‘would’. Woulda, shoulda, coulda live in Imaginationland.

IH is doing. And succeeding quite well, it appears.

Amusing that makes some people so angry. Good of you to weigh in with your venom, though. Helpful.
————————-

Smart people see opportunity.

#95 Don Guillermo on 06.19.20 at 8:01 pm

#54 Shirl Clarts on 06.19.20 at 5:49 pm
#13 Don Guillermo on 06.19.20 at 2:42 pm
#252 SeeB on 06.19.20 at 1:40 pm
@#108 Don Guillermo on 06.18.20 at 6:19 pm
Now, JT does the ad game with Covid-19… Can we all please stop lionizing our own personal political tribe and look at some of the most egregious common factors shared by ALL Canadian parties?
***************************************
Discussing JT in the same breath as Harper, Chretien, Mulroney, Martin etc. is ludicrous. Nothing to do with political tribe. JT is the most incompetent underqualified PM ever in Canadian history. JT had a chance to surround himself with qualified people but instead chose to spin the wheel with people based on gender, sexual preference and/or ethnicity.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Don. Ok we get it. you don’t like JT. Yikes!
But are you saying that someone is not qualified to work in government if you are a visible minority, a member of the LGBTQ, or Female?
Aren’t you attacking JT’s qualifications?
Make up your mind
**************************************
Nope, if you dismiss someone for any position solely because they are visible minority, LGBTQ or female then you are racist, homophobic and/or misogynist. If you select someone for only those reasons then you are the same. Pick the most qualified person no matter who they are. Simple. Trudeau is an example of a white privileged male picked solely because of his last name. Wrong again.

#96 no blog for old men on 06.19.20 at 8:02 pm

@#93 Drinking on 06.19.20 at 7:48 pm
Looked at a Kia today for the first time; test drove it, laughed, absolutely not mocking anyone that owns one, just not for me, and walked away. Anyways, interesting blog today Garth.Time will tell!
__________________________

some people just want to get from point A to point B without losing too much money on a rapidly depreciating asset.

#97 no blog for old men on 06.19.20 at 8:04 pm

@#91 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 7:46 pm
#73 -=withwings=- on 06.19.20 at 6:57 pm

here is my list:

1) Trump will call out those wearing a mask, encite the crowd to turn on them and they will be kicked out.
2) Trump will state that Covid was a hoax, and note that everyone in attendance looks ‘healthy’
3) Turmp will mimic a liberal/disabled person and mock them somehow by talking like he has a mental problem
4) Trump will trot out a person of color, as a good friend, who will insist that by inciting riots Trump is a true friend of the black people
5) BONUS: he gets the name of his ‘good friend’ token black person wrong.
6) DOUBLE BONUS: gives a medal of freedom to sean Hannity

How did I do?

——————-

Well, looking at your list objectively, it appears you just put that together to take cheap jabs.

———–

sadly, nobody would be the least bit surprised if anything on that list actually came to fruition

#98 Wrk.dover on 06.19.20 at 8:05 pm

In the dentist office yesterday, I overheard Kelly Ripa mention a billion dollars worth of draught beer inventory about to hit best before date, due to closed bars.

I think it could have been funny, if all the breweries in the USA were not owned by about one outfit.

Inbev?

#99 Morty the Mortician on 06.19.20 at 8:06 pm

#82 Ace Goodheart on 06.19.20 at 7:31 pm

We used to all live forever. No one ever died. People just kept going. Immortality was wonderful.

Now we are all reminded that life is followed by death.
————————————————————-
Ace baby, what lah-lah land world were you living in before Covid19? You thought you would live forever? Guess you have never seen anyone die of cancer. I got news for you cowboy, only the benighted thought we would live forever or those who were fortunate enough to not have loved ones or friends die.

#100 no blog for old men on 06.19.20 at 8:07 pm

@#78 Sunburned canuck on 06.19.20 at 7:16 pm
Canadians should be breaking out the Champagne and celebrating.
Had the Prince of Canadian politics ( you know,,the rock star with socks) been granted a seat on the Security council, the open checkbook would have added another 100 Billion to the debt pile. Thank god that didn’t happen!!
——————

meh, was a non issue when harper tried and a non issue now. partisans spend too much time worrying about this nonsense.

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.19.20 at 8:07 pm

Farts is back with a vengeance.
Good.
So, maybe he can comment on the motion to remove Gassy Jacks statue In Gastown.
After all, he/she is an expert in that field.

#102 FreeBird on 06.19.20 at 8:09 pm

#62 The Watcher … Third Post on 06.19.20 at 6:18 pm
When everyone was having phone disruptions this week – they were installing Covid 19 trackers to our phones. If you have an android phone go under settings, then GOOGLE settings and it is there. If you have an Iphone go to Settings, Privacy, then Health…. What the Blazes is going on !!!!!
————————-
Yup, my husb found it on his android but didn’t activate it. I just checked my IPhone and it’s not there BUT I haven’t installed my latest update…yiur comment is why. It’s not listed on list of updates but now I’m not installing it. We also leave phones in the car when out or even on walk near house. Think it’s obv what’s going on but thinking independently/critically or questioning what we’re told is now seen as crazy or dangerous. Thx for heads up.

#103 Drinking on 06.19.20 at 8:09 pm

#96 no blog for old men

Fair enough, as I mentioned, I was not knocking anyone down, was just not for me, decided to go with a used Chev, whether it is better option or not, time will tell!

#104 meslippery on 06.19.20 at 8:14 pm

Prehaps the take a way should be Businesses that pay less than $2k per month full time are in need of rate adjustment.
Here we have record profits from Empire and lets make more from our Heros.
It all comes back to the offshoring of good paying jobs.
Lets cut there pay and pay me a bonus.

#105 Bytor the Snow Dog on 06.19.20 at 8:16 pm

#235 Tater on 06.19.20 at 12:06 pm LOLs:

#229 Bytor the Snow Dog on 06.19.20 at 11:52 am
#203 Tater on 06.19.20 at 8:03 am erroneously bleats, again:

“If you want the private sector to have savings, the public sector needs to have debt.”
—————————————————————–
Where does this nonsense come from?
————————————————————–

It is a simple accounting identity.

Government creates money, government spending puts it into the economy, taxes take it out of the economy. Can you agree that is true?

If the government spends $100 and taxes back $90, they have a deficit of $10 and the private sector has a positive balance of $10.

See, so simple even you can understand it.”
————————————————————————
I was going to ask myself if you seriously believe this garbage but then, well, I considered the source.

Wealth is ALL created by the private sector. Money is a measure of that wealth. Even I, a former government employed parasite, understand that.

The government creates nothing. They tax wealth away from others. If Government spends what they tax, it’s neutral. Anything above that is called a deficit and it’s borrowed. From you. From me. And from our kids.

#106 Barb on 06.19.20 at 8:16 pm

The mere THOUGHT of Trump in Tulsa frightens me.

#107 Fused on 06.19.20 at 8:18 pm

#82
Ace Goodheart
No one gets out of here alive, we are all mortal.
On a side note have posted before about doing well with investments and options, made so much money between Dec 2018 and March to May 2020, it is hard to believe, my best ten years of wage earnings I beat in a couple of months.
I have broken into seven figure net worth(no real estate) and am hoping for another market calamity or three in the next couple of years to take me to an eight figure net worth before I am fifty.
Eagerly anticipating joining the 1%-2% club.

#108 NoName on 06.19.20 at 8:18 pm

look at that grin on SA face, its must be pizza box size…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/spacex-high-speed-internet-1.5618918

#109 AM in MN on 06.19.20 at 8:24 pm

#68 Alan Greenspan on 06.19.20 at 6:37 pm

Japan is a different story, and a different set of problems that will eventually catch up with them… aging population with no immigration.

They are an export economy, still very productive in many technologies, but little domestic demand as old people don’t need new cars and bigger houses. Without the money printing they’d have a very high Yen value, which would cause other problems. They also own a big pile of US$ and other currencies, much like a HK which maintains a peg through a big pile of holdings.

Also this has been going on for 25+ years and the market has adjusted.

What has happened with Canada & the US (& others) in the last few weeks is new and on a whole different scale. Demand destruction is bringing in deflation, although in a short blast, unlike Japan where it structural due to aging, but it won’t last.

The question is, do folks like Mr. Tiff and his masters have what it takes to rein it in if demand ever comes back (it will) and all the money starts moving around again? If there is asset price inflation on necessities, not just real estate, will governments say no to the demands for pay raises to public servants & pensioners.

Japan is not in this same boat. Canada has also been allowing massive foreign cash injections into real estate which supports the C$ and keeps interest rates low. This has been the offset for exports, which seem to be out of favor now, especially if it’s oil or LNG or anything that needs to be dug out of the ground.

Something will have to give, and probably sooner than many think. The model to follow is much more Argentina than Japan. They had a higher GDP/person than Canada before WWII, money printing and socialism always have the same result.

I’ve heard from some in Vancouver that restaurant owners can’t get staff back to work because of CERB… it can’t go on forever.

#110 Nonplused on 06.19.20 at 8:34 pm

#85 Pete from St. Cesaire
#87 Sail away

Thanks. The whole rant was originally supposed to be about how the math doesn’t work to tax the rich and that maths are hard, but then when I considered Garth’s number that only 43% of homeowners had a mortgage my brain went “what”??? Aren’t houses worth something???? So it transformed into a rant about “what is wealth, and who has it??” Not money, because as Garth keeps drilling home when he does a portfolio blog nobody should have too much cash, but what is wealth? And then the rant began. Wealth is not money, it only is measured by money, and it isn’t always easy to convert it to money. You can’t convert a Super Store into free hamburgers for all at the McDonald’s drive through.

#111 Faron on 06.19.20 at 8:35 pm

#91 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 7:46 pm

#73 -=withwings=- on 06.19.20 at 6:57 pm

Well, looking at your list objectively, it appears you just put that together to take cheap jabs.

Well, you hung out the speed bag for her/them/him Sail Away…

Regardless, this sounds like the makings of a good drinking game. “Bigly” or “Big League” for those who can penetrate his Queens English. “Yuge”, “Chinese Virus”, “Lamestream Media” would all be big winners.

#112 the Jaguar on 06.19.20 at 8:52 pm

@#52 MagnumMtl on 06.19.20 at 5:39 pm
in Montreal I am seeing rentals offering a free month – haven’t seen that since the 90’s.

Sounds like desperation setting in with those AirBnB owners who have been forced to flip their tourist units into longer term rental properties to escape the Grim Reaper. I love Montreal, but with Covid numbers posted by Quebec ( 54,550 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 5,375 deaths) can’t see anybody jumping on the ‘Let’s vacation in La Belle Province this summer’ bandwagon.

Local Calgary television poll confirmed 65% of viewers ( basically southern Alberta) confirmed they would stay in their home province this summer. Some may go west to areas of BC where they own property such as Kootenay Region or privately owned campsites as public ones are off limits to people from out of province, but those that do will likely stay in their bubble, purchasing everything they need for their stay before they leave Alberta. With the major highway twinning occurring around Golden, BC it wasn’t an opportune summer to go westwards even before Covid.

Folks in regions in this country that are heavily reliant on tourism are about to experience a ‘Come to Jesus’ moment.

More and more this summer reminds me of 1968. Hope nothing goes squirrely in Tulsa. All this violence, looting, burning, cancel culture, and especially pontificating from people who refuse to face facts is going very tiresome indeed. With the first day of summer only days away it might be wise to turn off all the news and dive into a good book. Currently reading Erik Larson’s ‘The Splendid and the Vile’ about Winston Churchill’s leadership during the Blitz. Makes this present flotsam jetsam seem like a walk in the park. Mercy.

#113 Lost...but not leased on 06.19.20 at 8:55 pm

I watched this “breaking news” this morning

Now I am sure BC is done…

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-dix-seeks-facts-on-racist-blood-alcohol-game-if-true-action-to-follow

These are “allegations”…yet Adrian Dix decides to make this a newsfeed/Presser priority.

Hmm….we in BC are inundated with “HealthCare” hero ads on TV…you know…..a Province of 4+ Million with under 200 COVID 19 deaths(allegedly).

Re: Civil Service…the police on a global scale are getting thrown under the bus..now Dix has effectively cast a pall over all healthcare workers, given we don’t know how widespread this alleged “game” is.

Keep playing that race card….it’s all for the collective good.

#114 the Jaguar on 06.19.20 at 8:57 pm

that was supposed to be ‘face facts is getting very tiresome indeed.

Can’t proof read to save my own life.

If you don’t like books and are enjoying the constant debate on what the root cause of the current trouble is you can check out this great interview with Larry Elder:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFqVNPwsLNo

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.19.20 at 8:58 pm

@#101 Ponzie Politics
“So, maybe he can comment on the motion to remove Gassy Jacks statue In Gastown.
After all, he/she is an expert in that field”
+++
An explosive idea.

Once again the jibbering, mindless mob mentality of todays politically correct sheeple focus on a statue of a historic figure from days long gone.

It reminds me of the communist chinese purges of the 1950’s.
Popular,….. self serving,….. dangerous….
Rewrite history to suite ones ideas.
Like that infamous Austrian Adolf.

Totally off subject.
Anyone watch the “almost finished” condo complex burn last night in vancouver?

https://globalnews.ca/news/7083904/south-vancouver-condo-building-fire/

Mortgages vs reality

#116 baloney Sandwitch on 06.19.20 at 9:03 pm

5 million is barely enough for a meat and potatoes retirement. My champagne and caviar you are looking at $25M +. I guess if you were to capitalize the pension of the random government employee that’s got to be worth 2 -3 million per capita now.

#117 viorelli on 06.19.20 at 9:12 pm

I would not touch any real estate investments with a 10 foot pole right now! Lots of commercial lease defaults already, I think it is just the beginning. Strata insurance companies are all in the process of re-evaluating their condo corps coverage, there will be only one outcome out of it, the monthly fee is going up. Condos will drop in a near future. No Air B and B’s, no foreign investors, no international students, broke locals, lost jobs in many sectors, and tightening credit in the near future. Meanwhile the wealth gap spreads and anger grows on both sides, the overextended debtors are pissed as they lost a job, cannot service the debt, and cost of just about everything skyrockets, the wealthy and job producing 1.6% are scared as the commies will come knocking on the door demanding a fair share of an ever shrinking pie. The wealthy flee with their assets and companies to a more friendly and safe countries or jurisdictions. The country is left with Amazon, social justice warriors, fast food chains, enormous taxes, and declining quality of life. The social unrest comes shortly after, just like we are seeing in many places around the world already.

#118 Deplorable Superspreaders on 06.19.20 at 9:13 pm

#97 no blog for old men on 06.19.20 at 8:04 pm
@#91 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 7:46 pm
#73 -=withwings=- on 06.19.20 at 6:57 pm

here is my list:

1) Trump will call out those wearing a mask, encite the crowd to turn on them and they will be kicked out.
2) Trump will state that Covid was a hoax, and note that everyone in attendance looks ‘healthy’
3) Turmp will mimic a liberal/disabled person and mock them somehow by talking like he has a mental problem
4) Trump will trot out a person of color, as a good friend, who will insist that by inciting riots Trump is a true friend of the black people
5) BONUS: he gets the name of his ‘good friend’ token black person wrong.
6) DOUBLE BONUS: gives a medal of freedom to sean Hannity

How did I do?

——————-

Well, looking at your list objectively, it appears you just put that together to take cheap jabs.

———–

sadly, nobody would be the least bit surprised if anything on that list actually came to fruition
…..

Giving out buckets of HCQ pills….. while mainlining bleach…’murica….

#119 Faron on 06.19.20 at 9:20 pm

#60 JacqueShellacque on 06.19.20 at 6:11 pm

#5 Faron

Awesome reply. That’s exactly the information I was looking for and certainly not boring.

“…mess up intertemporal decision making…”

Ha! That reads like a perfect description of current markets. HTZ stock FTW! Except, the reassertion hasn’t happened in a big way yet for the markets as a whole.

It sounds like you are saying that the distribution of a timeseries of d/dt of an index daily closing price would have a fat tail and likely show a distribution that could be modelled with the GEV. Doing so would give you a good estimate of the risk of rare events so one could quantify how to counter them.

I don’t trade options because I’m afraid of being sucked into the wormhole in terms of how much time I’d wind up spending learning about them. But, protecting against the long return-interval events does seem wise. I could see how in doing so one could tune their asset mix more toward equities without feeling overly exposed.

Cheers

#120 Commie infiltration on 06.19.20 at 9:21 pm

#83 A Dollar is a Dollar is a Dollar on 06.19.20 at 7:34 pm
Simply not true, Garth.

Here’s a report about an objective study of the most wealthy and the myths that are promoted about them.

https://inequality.org/research/selfmade-myth-hallucinating-rich/

Looking at different categories of the 1%ers, the authors say:

“Of the over 60 percent remaining, all grew up in substantial privilege.”

Inheritance is only one part of the tremendous privileges given to the rich, unlike the 95% of people who have no such thing.

Here’s what we need –

Wealth taxes.

Inheritance taxes.

Taxing all dollars equally, from whatever source and however they may be gained.

A dollar is a dollar is a dollar.
….

Well since I obviously make a hell of a lot more than you we should have a flat tax rate instead of me having to pick up your share in the extra taxes I pay….. seems fair.

#121 belly rubs on 06.19.20 at 9:27 pm

Wealth is fine until one cannot drive a viaduct for fear of marauders, then what’s the point? Either set a place at your table for the poor, or pay the tax to get someone else to. The financial divide should get starker during this recovery.

Off to cottage country with ten friends, ten quads, & ten cases of beer. Batten down yer hatch. (Not really, but I like to watch the Stay Home crowd spaz.)

#122 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.19.20 at 9:27 pm

#93 Drinking on 06.19.20 at 7:48 pm
Looked at a Kia today for the first time; test drove it, laughed, absolutely not mocking anyone that owns one, just not for me, and walked away.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
No cars made after 2000 have any soul. They’re essentially all the same plastic toy, just with different options. Who would really want to lay out the extra money to get the latest iterations of a Benz or a Jag, just get a Hyundai and be content. Put the savings towards a hobby.

#123 Sail Away on 06.19.20 at 9:31 pm

#108 NoName on 06.19.20 at 8:18 pm
look at that grin on SA face, its must be pizza box size…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/spacex-high-speed-internet-1.5618918

—————-

Oh yes, I am happy. When it goes public I will be very much happier.

#124 Alan Greenspan on 06.19.20 at 9:39 pm

#109 AM in MN on 06.19.20 at 8:24 pm

“Something will have to give, and probably sooner than many think. The model to follow is much more Argentina than Japan. They had a higher GDP/person than Canada before WWII, money printing and socialism always have the same result.”
————————————————————–
You need to understand the difference between socialism and a mixed market economy. Canada has the latter despite what a number of commentators on this blog think. Further, hyper inflation, a la Argentina style are always accompanied by a totally collapsed economy. MNCs flee these countries. Canada has a hard currency, have no MNCs fleeing, border the world’s biggest economy and are their largest trading partner. Any parallels to Argentina and other hyper inflated currencies are completely wrong.

#125 IHCTD9's Psychiatrist on 06.19.20 at 9:46 pm

#94 no blog for old men on 06.19.20 at 7:59 pm

There’s that ‘would’. Woulda, shoulda, coulda live in Imaginationland.

IH is doing. And succeeding quite well, it appears..”
—————————————————————–
Yah think so? He is collecting his CERB and has a wife who works for the government he so despises. I suggest you look up the meaning of hypocrite. My comment still stands, in the fairy tale world he thinks should exist, that of minuscule government and low taxes, he would be begging for handouts at the Hwy exit to his town…

#126 45north on 06.19.20 at 10:03 pm

12.5 million households

3.65 million own houses with mortgages

1 million have deferred their mortgages

which puts a huge hole in the real estate market

I wonder what Ross Kay would say?

#127 Apocalypse2020 on 06.19.20 at 10:05 pm

The virus is ramping up, dramatically.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/who-says-coronavirus-enters-new-and-dangerous-phase-as-daily-cases-hits-record.html

Most of you will be dead by 2022.

PREPARE

#128 45north on 06.19.20 at 10:05 pm

Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY

said the man from his downtown condo

#129 45north on 06.19.20 at 10:06 pm

AM in MN

I think we are in revolutionary times, as Victor Davis Hanson has just pointed out.

Canada will be effected, one way or the other.

affected

#130 45north on 06.19.20 at 10:08 pm

Sail away

talking about “withwings”

Well, looking at your list objectively, it appears you just put that together to take cheap jabs.
But I’m happy to tabulate and report back. Maybe you’re not all theatrics, who knows?

looking forward to your report

#131 Drinking on 06.19.20 at 10:20 pm

#122 Pete from St. Cesaire

lol, I hear you! Personally I could care less of all the bells and whistles; mind you I do have my Garmin and Dash Camera which cost me less then a hundred bucks through Kijiji. Hell, just save myself 10 grand for that option. I am old school, pump it three times and off she goes…

#132 IHCTD9 on 06.19.20 at 10:29 pm

#67 IHCTD9’s Psychiatrist on 06.19.20 at 6:34 pm

You are wasting your time engaging in any kind of dialogue with IHCDT9. He is as you point out a hypocrite but beyond that, he is an economic ignoramus who doesn’t understand the Keynesian system he lives in and thinks that the low tax, small government society espoused by the Friedmanites of the world will bring universal utopia. He would be begging for handouts outside of his local Canadian Tire store in that world but he is too dense to realize it. Save your time and ignore his mindless babble…
———-

Did I mention that a bro and I have been keeping track of all the cash we’ve received since Trudeau took power?

We’re sneaking up on one quarter million, pretty sweet no? I guess I’m cool with a low tax BIG government society after all. I’ll never need to beg for handouts in front of Canadian Tire as long as Trudeau runs the show. Tens of thousands of dollars are rammed into our bank accounts every single year. We barely need to lift a finger. I even might actually start voting for the guy.

Anyway, the last time I visited my shrink, she made a pass at me after she found out about my dozer collection. I had to discontinue my treatment after that.

#133 Sail Away on 06.19.20 at 10:30 pm

#125 IHCTD9’s Psychiatrist on 06.19.20 at 9:46 pm
#94 no blog for old men on 06.19.20 at 7:59 pm

There’s that ‘would’. Woulda, shoulda, coulda live in Imaginationland.

IH is doing. And succeeding quite well, it appears..”

———————

Yah think so? He is collecting his CERB and has a wife who works for the government he so despises. I suggest you look up the meaning of hypocrite. My comment still stands, in the fairy tale world he thinks should exist, that of minuscule government and low taxes, he would be begging for handouts at the Hwy exit to his town…

———————-

With fury distorting his otherwise forgettable features, Vernon hissed , “Look at him. Just look at him. Acting so high and mighty, driving his Yamaha on public trails, throwing his money in our face! And I ask, How did he get there? I’ll tell you: through the goodness and hard work of me and you, that’s how. But now he can’t be bothered to give any back, can he? Oh no! So hoity toity.”

“And making stuff up! That story about me wearing women’s underwear? Nothing to it. I think he’s the one started it. Him and that wholesome, happy, satisfied family act. Hah!…”

Whoops, sorry, Vern. Must’ve dozed off there. You were saying?

#134 JacqueShellacque on 06.19.20 at 10:44 pm

As flattered as I am, you overestimate my intelligence as well as my knowledge of distributions and options.
The only thing I care about re options is that they provide the opportunity to exploit someone else’s
immediate need to buy it from you: the seller of the put in particular (probably some suspender-snapping type)
has used a naive prediction or model of risk
to assume that a quick, large change can’t or won’t happen. If it does, their potential liability is yuuge,
and they must close out their position, at almost any price, by buying it back. Is this for everybody? No.

#135 joblo on 06.19.20 at 11:04 pm

“It’s never to early to learn that the government is a greedy piglet that suckles on a taxpayers teat until they have sore chapped nipples”

Ron Swanson Season 3 Ep. 14 Parks and Recreation

#136 NFN_NLN on 06.19.20 at 11:15 pm

#9 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.19.20 at 2:16 pm
Locked in this weekend?
Watch the Trump rally in Tulsa on your favorite Newscast.
Should be history making.

///

More exciting than New York, LA, Atlanta, … being looted and burned by radicals? I have to admit nobody parties like the Seattle’s “Chapel Hill Autonomous Zone”.

It will be a hard act to follow.

#137 joblo on 06.19.20 at 11:16 pm

Ron Swanson Talks Taxes – Parks and Recreation

https://youtu.be/XDE9e0IZkbI

#138 Sam j on 06.19.20 at 11:17 pm

“We could use more of these job creating titans”. I respectfully disagree Garth. All it means is that the wealth is concentrated in few hands instead of benefiting the greater public. So, instead of having 1 no frills or loblaws serving 5 square city blocks, you have dozens of smaller independent businesses all paying rent and and taxes, selling the same products, competing for customers business. Monopolies don’t help create jobs, businesses do. More businesses = more jobs and more competition.

#139 IHCTD9 on 06.19.20 at 11:35 pm

#74 Sail away on 06.19.20 at 6:57 pm
#67 IHCTD9’s Psychiatrist on 06.19.20 at 6:34 pm
#233 Tater on 06.19.20 at 11:59 am
#225 IHCTD9 on 06.19.20 at 11:18 am

You really are a parasite, hovering up every subsidy you can get, bragging about paying no tax, and spitting on the poorest in our society.

——————-

…he is an economic ignoramus who doesn’t understand the Keynesian system he lives in and thinks that the low tax, small government society espoused by the Friedmanites of the world will bring universal utopia. He would be begging for handouts outside of his local Canadian Tire store in that world but he is too dense to realize it. Save your time and ignore his mindless babble…

——————-

There’s that ‘would’. Woulda, shoulda, coulda live in Imaginationland.

IH is doing. And succeeding quite well, it appears.

Amusing that makes some people so angry. Good of you to weigh in with your venom, though. Helpful.
—-

Thank you SA, I think buddy here is my favourite fanboi. He just looses it every time I talk about all the freebies I get from Trudeau. Maybe he should stop voting for the guy? Whatev…

I’m not rich by the standard of this blog, not by a long shot. Yet, I want for nothing. I can pay the bills, have been blessed with a great wife and kids, and a love for the simple things in life. That’s good enough for me.

#140 tkid on 06.19.20 at 11:39 pm

Hey Garth! Did you Stats Canada has an account on reddit? They’ve been posting and everything!

https://www.reddit.com/user/StatCanada

#141 AM in MN on 06.19.20 at 11:49 pm

#124 Alan Greenspan on 06.19.20 at 9:39 pm

The big border is both a blessing and a curse. There is no other country in the world like Canada that has 5 different economic zones that each does more business with the US than with any other zone.

Not sure if you remember all the moaning in the late ’90’s about the “brain drain”? With a dollar at 64c and many young people who had their educations paid for by the Canadian taxpayer took that education and got a big pay raise down south. The capital flight can happen faster these days, and bond markets can adjust (higher rates) very quickly now.

Canada (& the US) are becoming a lot less “mixed market” economies as the central banks becomes much larger players in the day to day economy. The better term is probably crony capitalism, but the Argentina reference still hold true as they still have private business and private property, but the spending demands on the government cannot be met through taxation, and thus Govt. borrowing or money printing.

Both destroy private sector investment, and as inflation takes hold, lead to the need for more. This is known as the debt-death spiral, and yes it’s possible here.
Again, remember the ’95 budget of Paul Martin and the daily protests faced by Ralph Klein. Now imagine that happening in a time with more old people needing pensions and health care compared with those days with boomers at peak earning years.

Bond markets know that governments that are backed into a corner can do what they need to very quickly in some cases. Real Estate can be taxed at any level a Province decides to tax it at, or confiscate it if taxes are not paid. Pipelines and mines can be permitted at the stroke of a pen when public opinion is of little concern. Much higher levels of 3rd world immigration can goose corporate profits and bond prices… many ways the money men can get their reward.

There is no free lunch, but very few with a modern University education believe this. They’ll find out the hard way one day…

#142 Jacky Flash on 06.19.20 at 11:54 pm

DELETED

#143 Lead Paint on 06.19.20 at 11:57 pm

#79 Nonplused on 06.19.20 at 7:17 pm

Echoing what the others said, that was Awesome with Capital-A!

#144 Lead Paint on 06.19.20 at 11:58 pm

#88 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 06.19.20 at 7:41 pm

I’m going camping in a tent, all good?

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 12:15 am

@#125 Freud’s fishnet stockings
“……he would be begging for handouts at the Hwy exit to his town…”
++++

As opposed to a broke federal/provincial/municipal govt legally stealing our hard earned dollars through ever increasing taxes……
Sigh.
I guess we’ll all be in THAT Viking tax ship pyre on our way to fiscal Valhalla soon enough…..

What was it Braveheart screamed as the govt officials of the day eviscerated him?
“Freedom!”

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/tax-freedom-day-2020-report

Get ready for that day to move into June, July , August if the poser in charge wins the next election.

#146 NFN_NLN on 06.20.20 at 12:41 am

#34 Dolce Vita on 06.19.20 at 4:05 pm

Righty’s with a conscience, who knew?

///

I thought you took a break from virus shilling to discuss Canadian debt levels? Looks like you’re back to your old fear mongering.

You can tell which ones are the “Righty’s” during the “peaceful protests”. They’re generally the guarding their stores against lefty looters and arsonists.

Hey Dolce, have you had a chance to check out the Leftist utopia in Seattle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ay5h5dq14mM

Garth, any comment on this economic outlook of this newest nation?

#147 Dirty Dan on 06.20.20 at 12:54 am

Like father like son:

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/06/18/statue-of-pierre-trudeau-spray-painted-in-style-of-blackface.html

#148 Al on 06.20.20 at 1:44 am

“He’s worth about $8 billion (largely in corporate stock) and employs just under 150,000 Canadians.”

I’m glad he’s around. If it wasn’t for him we wouldnt have any grocery stores that could provide that food and those 150 000 would now be unemployed. It’s hard to find a grocery in parts of the country where they dont have much presence. He also provides employment for many well paid lawyers and accountants which devise tax eva.. Correction, tax avoidance (2020 ruling) schemes that withholds 368 million in tax revenues from the citizens of Canada. I’m sure their best work is yet to come, hard to believe though as he created this empire himself. The Kraken.

#149 fishman on 06.20.20 at 2:01 am

I see Portland toppled George Washington onto his face & puked all over the back of his head.Victoria beat them to it and with more class. First thing was to elect a mayor & council that engaged in “critical thinking”. The next step as mayor of Victoria, the capital of British Columbia is to refuse to swear allegiance to Elizabeth 11. A first in Canada (if not Quebec ] after 150 years of councilmen swearing an oath to the crown upon taking office,
Once you abandon Western Enlightenment for Critical Thinking the Jake break on the bus is off. Next to go is John A. McDonald. A job for the gang of eight. Handled discreetly. If your going to hang a man, you hang him in the morning. Early,early on a cold grey Victoria
mourning.Crane operator/swamper:Rigger/apprentice: truck driver/ swamper: flagman/pickup truck radio guy.
The rigger picked a greasy over size rope ,tied a grand ungainly knot & hung him high. The belligerents? They were no better , no worse, than the soldiers that rolled dice for Jesus’s robe.
Like every Canadian kid, I grew up with John A’s face. Swinging by his neck 30 feet in the air. Hard to top that. Though Vancouver does have a rather robust bust of Calvin Coolidge at the entrance to Lord Stanley’s Park. We gotta be able to top skuzzy Portand & hoighty toighty Victoria.

#150 Stan Brooks on 06.20.20 at 2:49 am


#124 Alan Greenspan on 06.19.20 at 9:39 pm
#109 AM in MN on 06.19.20 at 8:24 pm

“Something will have to give, and probably sooner than many think. The model to follow is much more Argentina than Japan. They had a higher GDP/person than Canada before WWII, money printing and socialism always have the same result.”
————————————————————–
You need to understand the difference between socialism and a mixed market economy. Canada has the latter despite what a number of commentators on this blog think. Further, hyper inflation, a la Argentina style are always accompanied by a totally collapsed economy. MNCs flee these countries. Canada has a hard currency, have no MNCs fleeing, border the world’s biggest economy and are their largest trading partner. Any parallels to Argentina and other hyper inflated currencies are completely wrong.

Lie after lie after lie.

Keep lying and keep believing in it.

1. Mexico is the US biggest trading partner.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2020/02/05/its-official-mexico-is-no-1-us-trade-partner-for-first-time-despite-overall-us-trade-decline/#528028433eab

While we have negative trade balance with US, Mexico has 80-100 billions positive trade balance yearly.

Look at their currency.

2. Our currency is not hard but fiat. It is backed by the collection of used sox of our dear leader whom you watch in the mouth in anticipation of the next handout as ‘you are rich, G7 country’ while ‘poor’ Mexico spends much less on assistance programs than us as their citizens apparently are much better off and not indebted and unable to survive without government assistance as us.

3. We border some of the poorest US states and metro areas, the likes of Detroit and Buffalo, why do you think we should have better living standards than those?

4. On the topic of Japan – it’s economy is export oriented, has some of the biggest companies in the world, their population has savings and their debt is internal.

Our economy is oligopoly/profit extraction oriented, non-competitive on international stage and the impact of zero rates/huge debt at times of economic calamities like the one that just started on inflation and standard of living will be near catastrophic.

5. The USD is projected to decline against the Euro to the tune of 10-15 % this year by Jeff Gundlah (to 2011 levels) so watch out for the loonie.

Cheers,

#151 SoggyShorts on 06.20.20 at 2:50 am

#54 Shirl Clarts on 06.19.20 at 5:49 pm
#13 Don Guillermo on 06.19.20 at 2:42 pm
#252 SeeB on 06.19.20 at 1:40 pm
@#108 Don Guillermo on 06.18.20 at 6:19 pm
Now, JT does the ad game with Covid-19… Can we all please stop lionizing our own personal political tribe and look at some of the most egregious common factors shared by ALL Canadian parties?
***************************************
Discussing JT in the same breath as Harper, Chretien, Mulroney, Martin etc. is ludicrous. Nothing to do with political tribe. JT is the most incompetent underqualified PM ever in Canadian history. JT had a chance to surround himself with qualified people but instead chose to spin the wheel with people based on gender, sexual preference and/or ethnicity.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Don. Ok we get it. you don’t like JT. Yikes!

But are you saying that someone is not qualified to work in government if you are a visible minority, a member of the LGBTQ, or Female?
****************************
Shirly, what are the chances that the best person qualified for every single role in JT’s cabinet was also the same as his stated quota numbers?
So aside from removing “best person for the job” as a qualifier his mandate to include 50% women in his cabinet automatically rejects any man no matter how competent once the 50% man ceiling is reached, no?
Equality does not mean choosing one over another, does it?

#152 SoggyShorts on 06.20.20 at 2:53 am

#228 Faron on 06.19.20 at 11:51 am
#192 SWL on 06.19.20 at 1:00 am
@45 sunshowers

And for those 15 y/o kids working entry level, if you show them that by working a shitty job they can do decently well for themselves, they would be inspired to work their faces off.

**********************
This has not been my experience nor anyone elses whom I’ve ever spoken to. Pay people a fat wage to start and they have zero incentive to work harder.
——————————-
And why not allow any person to earn a living wage? Why would anyone deserve less because of age?
****************
It has nothing to do with age, but rather the job. Some jobs are worth less than others either due to training required, replaceability, skill level, or even just effort needed.
———————————–
The fact of the matter is that if you don’t think a 21 year old living on their own deserves a living wage for washing dishes, then you don’t think they deserve to live.
********************************
No. There are plenty of entry level positions that pay far more than minimum wage, but the downside is that you have to work hard. If you want a living wage you don’t get to do the easiest jobs in the whole country: get your mom to buy you a pair of steel-toe boots and apply at any construction company as a laborer- you’ll get $17+ per hour to start and if you work hard You’ll be up to $20 by the end of the season. Then parley that experience into another job, aprentice with a trades person etc.
or
Take that $19 job stocking shelves from Garth’s post, work hard, and use that experience to land another warehouse job making $23. Learn how to use a forklift, go up to $27. Set your eyes on that warehouse manager position.
This isn’t boomer memories, this is the path that my friends’ kids have taken/are taking even now during possibly the worst time to get a job in a century.
or
Complain about how the easiest job possible requiring the absolute minimum of skill and effort doesn’t pay more.

#153 Stan Brooks on 06.20.20 at 2:57 am

And international/MNC capital is fleeing this place:

Foreign direct investment is declining:

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/foreign-direct-investment

It is actually horrific, look at these diagrams:

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/look-how-much-foreign-investment-has-fled-canada-since-the-liberals-took-over

Outflows skyrocketing with inflows declining in a big and very bad way.

Cheers,

#154 Andrew on 06.20.20 at 6:05 am

Has there ever been a bull market in history with a vix over 30? Maybe this time is different. We’ll see.

#155 BillyBob on 06.20.20 at 8:56 am

#79 Nonplused on 06.19.20 at 7:17 pm (and #84)

Nonplused, just wanted to say I’ve thoroughly enjoyed your thoughtful breakdowns of topics in your comments today and in recent days. You are absolutely crushing it with your accessible reasonings, please continue!

Unrelated, seems like someone has a crush on for IHCTD9 LOL. I think what probably annoys them the most is that IH seems very much what his critic isn’t – happy! Living well is always the best revenge. Doing it with stupid amounts of gov money you didn’t even vote for? Respect!

But I think buddy there is a bit off base claiming that Dozer-man would be helpless without the Trudeau-bux. Seems to me someone with heavy machinery and a past-stated ability with his hands would probably be just fine without a government cheque.

For sure, better than some envious keyboard-warrior throwing shade.

#156 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 9:54 am

@#125 Apocalypse2020
“Most of you will be dead by 2022.”

++++

No electricity because only the politically correct will be allowed jobs and they dont get their hands dirty?

No elevators to fumigate?

Mobs melting 100 year old statues so they can hammer bronze spears out of the recycled metal?

No spray paint to deface anything of value?

Possibly no Apocalypse 2022 regaling us with his positive predictions?

It was all worth it.

#157 Stratovarious on 06.20.20 at 10:00 am

How many of the 1.6% rich folks are on the receiving end of government stimulus? ALL OF THEM. All rich people are benefiting from CB and Federal Government bailouts, which pump up asset markets, particularly stocks and bonds. If the markets were priced based on actual fundamentals (you know, things like sales and profits), the market would not be near an all-time high, but rather, down significantly. This is why the old timers, including Warren Buffett, are buying nothing in this market: it is over priced and inflated due to CB manipulation.

However, let’s degrade the 98% who are struggling and might just possibly need Justin’s handouts. Perhaps he will listen to his advisors and implement a wealth tax to claw back some of that excessive profit made by the rich based on government support.

#158 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 10:05 am

@#154 Stan Brooks
“Outflows skyrocketing with inflows declining in a big and very bad way.”

++++

Yep, and the more “Stutters” keeps creating money out of thin air and tossing it from a govt helicopter to the braying masses cheering him on with “CERB! CERB! CERB!”
The faster will be the outflow of foreign (and domestic) investment money.

Our personal taxes, GST, govt user fees, etc. will grow in direct proportion to the govt debt.
I wonder when the Liberals will give away free pot?
Before or after they outlaw all firearms?
All our troubles will be gone in a blissful cloud of smoke.

Canuck buck at $0.60 by Christmas 2021?
Only Gerald “No Bucks” Butts knows for sure.

#159 Felix on 06.20.20 at 10:12 am

Happy Caturday!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SMzGXCFiNE

#160 Dharma Bum on 06.20.20 at 10:30 am

Cottagers’ Lives Matter.

To believe or say otherwise is RACISM!!!

Cottage shaming must stop.

It’s basic human rights.

Free the cottagers.

#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.20 at 10:37 am

@#160 Felix.

Jayzuz.

Cats and country & western music…..shoot me now.

#162 Lurker on 06.20.20 at 5:41 pm

Source that “most” did not inherit wealth? Honestly curious.

#163 Steven Rowlandson on 06.20.20 at 5:53 pm

The moral of the story is don’t allow living costs that can’t be paid if the income is stopped for a short time or forever.

#164 Cto on 06.21.20 at 7:41 am

Garth,
To stave off my wife’s desires to buy an investment property, I have been praying for the last 4 years or so for a fundamental price discovery.
Every time it appears we might have one BOC or government step in to create a floor.
Really, what are the chances that int rates are going to increase in any meaningful way. What are the chances that CMHC is going to tighten in any meaningful way. What are the chances that any government is going to tighten emigration.
They will extend this game until 100% are in it.

#165 Tim on 06.21.20 at 9:27 pm

“How did 1.6% of people get 28% of the money? Some inherited it. Most did not.”

Probably correct. But it would be useful to look at those 1.6% and see where they started. How many of them WEREN’T born into, say, the upper 20% of household incomes?

“But billionaires are rare. We could use more of these job-creating titans.”

Well, of course billionaires seem to create all the jobs. They have all the money. Where else would it come from? It’s one thing to say that, given a system where there are billionaires, the billionaires will be big job creators. But this is quite different from saying that billionaires are necessary to create jobs. If you go to the Middle Ages, kings and popes were ultimately responsible for creating 100% of serfing jobs. Does that mean you need kings and popes to get people to farm?