Pixie dough

It’s official. Eight more weeks of CERB. Estimated (additional) cost: $34 billion. As mentioned last week, that’s almost twice what the army, navy and air force cost to operate for a full year. Never before has one social program sucked off this much – $94 billion or so by the time the CERB ends and our cerbitude begins.

Surveys show Boomers worry about this stuff. Millennials don’t much. GenZers couldn’t care less. There’s a growing cadre of kids who believe the Bank of Canada is full of pixies who just print money, give it to Justin who then gives it to them. This has a name – ‘modern monetary theory’ – and MMT’s now at the heart of Democratic politics in the US. It’s the rationale for justifying UBI, a universal basic income. In a rich country like America, the progressives ask, why can’t wealth be created for citizens as easily as the Fed spends $250 billion buying corporate bonds?

But the US owns the world’s reserve currency. Our dollars are essentially priced in theirs. Creating more dilutes the value of all existing loonies, which leads to inflation. If you think buying a house is hard in Vancouver or Toronto now, just wait. MMT promises wealth for all, but could end up being a wealth destroyer.

Anyway, the federal deficit is on its way to $300 billion now. Next month there’s an economic statement. In the spring, a budget. In 2021, higher taxes plus an election. Remember the advice proffered here yesterday. Things I’m hearing about: a new tax bracket, some diddling with TFSAs, a higher capital gains tax inclusion rate and a ‘temporary’ Covid-19 tax. Yeah, temporary like income tax was in 1917.

     

The virus has sure changed real estate. Sales plunged in April, staggered back in May and low inventory levels have kept values level. Forecasts of big price declines abound, but housing is an emotion-driven commodity and if people feel confident buying, they will. Even when unemployment is high and the economy unsure.

Insufferable Tyler, a regular blog dog, sends along this report from his Toronto hood:

I have been following the for rent/for sale market for the last two months in Etobicoke.

April 6: For Sale = 5,772; For Rent = 6,302
June 5: For Sale = 7,043; For Rent = 9,444 (22% and 50% up).

“For rent” availability has been steadily increasing but the increase in “for sale” availability is mostly since mid/late May. I wonder if it’s a trend or just seasonality. We’ll see in a few months I guess… An anecdote: in our complex (three buildings) there is usually 1 condo available at any given time. Now it’s 5-6. One 2bed/2bath was originally $3,200/m (May 14). Now it’s $2,850 (since June 3).

Negatives for big-city real estate include the virus (duh) which tarnishes condos, especially those soaring downtown germ factories; the collapse of Airbnb, bring more rentals and listings to market; now-structural unemployment; tighter CMHC restrictions; and banks pissed-off by a million mortgage deferrals and in no mood to give credit to sketchy borrowers. Positives include the lowest mortgage rates in memory; seriously pent-up demand and, well, that’s it.

But what about all these virtual tours and the inability of buyers to actually go and see what they’re purchasing? Surely that is a huge obstacle to selling something as visceral, physical and tactile as real estate?

Nah. No more.

A survey by Ontario realtors reveals 42% of people are open to buying digs they’ve only seen on their iPads. Just a third indicate they want to open cupboard drawers, peer into basement corners, check out the yard, flip around the electrical panel and look behind the dryer.

Of course, this is insane. Sellers and their agents spend big bucks ensuring virtual tours are gauzy, fetching, evocative, compelling, emotive works of marketing art. They stress décor and lifestyle, glossing over or ignoring stuff like amperage, insulation, moisture penetration or if the neighbour raises illegal livestock. Just as nobody sane should buy a pre-con unit from plans with a builder’s contract, nor should they go firm based on a YouTube production. At least get your agent (not the seller’s agent) to walk through FaceTiming the place, and make the offer conditional on a proper home inspection.

Oh, and here are two more reasons to delay buying. Almost 40% of homeowners surveyed had planned to list their homes pre-virus. Now the majority say they’ll wait until Covid is “officially over”. Expect a torrent in the fall. Plus 40% expect prices to fall somewhat or “a lot.”

Sheesh. Might as well self-isolate in the apartment, collect free money and refuse to pay rent. Like the government wants.

157 comments ↓

#1 Doug t on 06.16.20 at 4:41 pm

Sprinkle that fairy dust EVERYWHERE for gods sake – I’m starting to question the “reality” we are supposedly living

#2 SS in mtl on 06.16.20 at 4:42 pm

What have you heard wrt to the TFSA?

#3 Red_falcon on 06.16.20 at 4:42 pm

Countdown begins for the deferral cliff!

And… first!!!

#4 ummm on 06.16.20 at 4:46 pm

Horray more taxes! i love taxes, they’re my favourite. i love paying for everyone else.

seriously whats the point ? go to school, get a degree get a professional job, get ahead only for the gov. to overreact and in 16-32 weeks create an insurmountable deficit that i’ll be paying off at a higher rate for the next 30 years ? why get ahead when they just try to pull everyone back down to the same level. /rant

#5 wallflower on 06.16.20 at 4:49 pm

Yesterday, this guy estimated ~25% storefront businesses closed, permanently, in his ‘hood.
Worried retail not coming back anywhere near prior levels.
#69 Dominoes Lining Up on 06.15.20 at 5:58 pm

I have a working theory for about 20 years now: a percentage of so-called businesses that have some kind of storefront image are not actually what one might think.

I suspect money laundering type activity runs through a number of these storefronts.
Long while back, I realized that many of these store fronts never have any activity. So, are they just fronts for telephone-type businesses?
Many of them marketed like a retail sort of biz which would explain money laundering – cash.
Having a storefront is a brilliant mechanism for laundering cash. You don’t have to have a single authentic transaction.
The whole shebang could be laundering.

It would be more of a red flag if your ‘retail’ business stays steady during pandemic…

So, I am not feeling the concern over disappearing storefronts as a whole whack of them are likely illusory anyway.
(Particularly those businesses that are second floor front… very suspicious, those ones. I have been working from home now for 22 years. That’s what people do with non-retail businesses now. They do not rent second floor street front ‘offices’ anymore.)

#6 TurnerNation on 06.16.20 at 4:49 pm

The War on Small Business continues.

1. A regional Ontario mayor was quoted: they extended the local “State of Emergency”. Why? Because the Province had done so. Lockstep. There is NO science, big data, reason or democracy being invoked. Simply a psycological and economic attack — as the Old System is being destroyed. Go out and look at your main street. Looks like an economic b0mb was dropped.

2. The week after the lockdown, in Toronto, large 3′ x 6′ posters began appearing on vacant buildings and construction site walls: The old “we are all in this together 6 feet apart” commy sloganeering, it said. Wait a sec, all non essential business were closed. Who got these printed up and how, who paid – and who installed them? (The same thing took place after we were attacked with Greta ideology.)
This WW3 underway is for our Minds. The Crown already owns all the land.

3. I read that in order to have Compassion (which is being removed in the New System btw) you must first see someone as being Human. Why then are all major cities ordering masks on public transit now. Why not in March – if this really was about public health? It is not – simply another psychological tactic. No the glimpse of the old ways they are giving us as things re-open, you will be masked and muzzled and de-humanized.

—which is why if you scroll down every transit in the world appears to be running the same marketing campaign. A global script. Again this is not about health, this was not done months ago. It’s about fundementally altering human behavior:
https://twitter.com/intothemelwoods/status/1272586214038626305

Which is why…they imposed this combat stance upon us – this is global WW3:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distancing

Distancing is the appropriate selection of distance between oneself and a combatant throughout an encounter. Distancing is significant in an altercation as it
determines both attack and defence options for all parties involved.[1] Timing and tactics are also important elements of combat which are often used in conjunction with distancing by experienced martial artists.[2]
Distancing is an important concept in all combative sports and arts. It applies to both un-armed and armed combat.

#7 Tater on 06.16.20 at 4:52 pm

Garth, I’ll buy and send you a copy of “The Deficit Myth” if you’ll read it.

Because you’re quite wrong about what MMT is. It simply describes how the monetary system works for currency issuers. From that, you can extend to policies, but whether those policies are implemented or not, MMT has descriptive use.

#8 HowDeepThe Pain? on 06.16.20 at 4:54 pm

JUSTIN!!!

Stop spending my money!! Its not a Trust Fund. Its the future prosperity of Canada.

And what kind of upside down world do we debate if Fraud is wrong or right?

#9 Justeedoh on 06.16.20 at 4:55 pm

Cerbanada

#10 conan on 06.16.20 at 4:56 pm

I get the impression Canada is spending the Covid money more wisely than the Americans are. I believe in trickle
up economics a lot more than I do trickle down.
Besides, the CERB helped a lot of people. Is it perfect? No, but they needed something fast.

The CERB hurts business owners who offer lousy employment, no benefits, probably sub contractor status, and a : “you are fired a minute before you get injured policy.” These companies give the legit companies grief. No great loss here.

#11 bizz on 06.16.20 at 5:01 pm

we are doomed
I work in the construction industry, I make over 100g, so 54% tax right off the bat, then add all the other taxes and services dumped on us and that is another 22%. that leave me very little for all that hard earn wage.
Stay at home $2000/mth, looks good right now.
This is insane, how much more can you we take, and by the way the liberals have given the rest of the undeserving world the rest of our monies. WE are doomed, and Canada is really finished, just a matter of taxing us to death..

#12 Leo on 06.16.20 at 5:01 pm

The diddling with TFSA has me concerned as I quickly try to max it…. should I consider a 50K loan to max it before the next budget?

#13 Captain Uppa on 06.16.20 at 5:01 pm

“If you think buying a house is hard in Vancouver or Toronto now, just wait”

Sooo, wouldn’t it be better to buy in Vancouver or Toronto now before the above happens? Provided you can afford it – somewhat.

#14 Stone on 06.16.20 at 5:04 pm

But the US owns the world’s reserve currency. Our dollars are essentially priced in theirs. Creating more dilutes the value of all existing loonies, which leads to inflation. If you think buying a house is hard in Vancouver or Toronto now, just wait.

———

Uh, now you’re saying housing in Toronto and Vancouver will go up? Before today, you were all about deflation. Now, you’re saying inflation will make housing more expensive. Then, at the end of today’s post, you talk about housing prices dropping in the fall. Which is it? Harder? Easier? Hide at home and just collect CERB? Join Elon for a ride to the space station? Get a unicorn and make fairy wishes? Today was a very confusing ramble. It still gave me a good laugh but what is with all the talk out of both sides of the mouth?

#15 Eaglebay on 06.16.20 at 5:04 pm

Wallflower and TurnerNation are a couple of winners. Conspiracy much?
Garth you make so much sense and then we get all the yoyos. Don’t they have any ideas or are they for real? Logic out the door.
Now you know why I don’t comment much anymore. It used to be fun but now I just enjoy reading your common sense approach.

#16 Balderdash ... on 06.16.20 at 5:06 pm

did the dog get a bone for his/her birthday?

#17 Oakville Sucks on 06.16.20 at 5:08 pm

What about the Jessica Mulroney PR disaster?
Do you think she’s applied for CERB yet? I’m sure the Liberals have a bailout package for that too.

#18 Jake on 06.16.20 at 5:14 pm

“some diddling with TFSAs”… sounds like another Trudeau cut to the annual contribution limit is in store?

#19 John on 06.16.20 at 5:15 pm

Hey Garth, you only highlight negative real estate stories.
There are many positive ones. Lots of folks have significant equity in their homes. This past weekend bidding wars on condos in downsview and semis in North York selling for 880K where pre covid 790k. Good rentals being snatched up quick near Yorkdale mall and Etobicoke. Sellout in Barrie Yonge and Go townhouses. My BIL bought his home in 2010 for 800K now it’s worth $2.3k. Realtors calling him non stop with buyers. He doesn’t want to sell though. Why don’t you ever highlight positive news on real estate? Huh Garth why???

#20 Coho on 06.16.20 at 5:20 pm

When in history did governments care that much about the elderly and most vulnerable in society that almost every country is/was in lockstep to deliberately crash their economies?

Cripes typically the elderly and disabled have to choose between food or medicine because often they do not have enough money to buy both. Now the mantra is even if we save one (covid) life it is worth keeping people locked up. Two new cases have been reported in New Zealand as if it were a 9.0 earthquake. We’ve lost all perspective.

Oh Canada, how can we stand on guard for thee when we allow ourselves to be treated like children and when even the youngest adults among us are terrified of catching a cold/flu? People get sick all the time, but now it is viewed as a new menace threatening our very existence.

#21 Yukon Elvis on 06.16.20 at 5:24 pm

And interest rates are not going up any time soon making all this borrowing more affordable for all :

Foreign investors mopped up the flood of new issuance by Canadian governments and companies, a sign the nation continues to be viewed a safe haven.Investors from outside the country bought a net $49 billion of Canadian securities in April, the largest monthly purchases from abroad on record, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday.
That included $15.8 billion in federal government bonds, as well as $10.2 billion in federal government money market instruments such as treasury bills, both record inflows. Foreign investors also bought $25.4 billion in corporate bonds.The unprecedented purchases coincide with a hefty issuance of federal debt by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government to fund spending to support Canadians through the economic shock and shutdowns caused by COVID-19.“The strong inflows into Canadian debt markets reveal that, even during the height of the crisis in this country, Canada was seen as an attractive place to park funds,” Katherine Judge and Royce Mendes at CIBC World Markets said in a report to investors.Foreigners were less interested in Canada’s stock market, selling a net $4.9 billion in Canadian equities and investment fund shares in April, the data show.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/foreigners-are-buying-up-canadian-debt-at-a-record-pace-1.1451294

#22 IHCTD9 on 06.16.20 at 5:26 pm

Looking forward to the budget/economic statement. Love hearing about the new taxes I won’t be paying. Trudeau will have years to run the show in Canada yet, I’m going to have a ball watching revenues stubbornly resist going up.

#23 Mashingo Doblooba on 06.16.20 at 5:26 pm

TFSA contribution limit per year will be reduced to $1000 and any gains in the account will be taxed to pay for CERB

#24 Larry B on 06.16.20 at 5:27 pm

MMT really stands for Magic Money Tree.

#25 Arthur Doucet on 06.16.20 at 5:34 pm

I use to be amazed at how little folks knew about houses or cared. The Financial literacy has duplicated it’s self into
what to look out for or simple maintenance of a house.

This is why it will be yuppa yuppa and no slow down till mother nature starts to blow down the piles on a mass scale.

#26 Howard on 06.16.20 at 5:36 pm

I’ve been tracking the condo rentals on offer on condos.ca for the past month.

On May 20 there were 3972 condos seeking tenants in downtown Toronto (the area that they define as DT anyway).

Today there are 5080 condos downtown seeking renters. A 28% supply increase in less than a month.

Since I don’t have last year’s data, I cannot conclude that this is abnormally high. Maybe it’s normal to see such a flood of supply in May/June due to student leases ending?

#27 Not my Elephant on 06.16.20 at 5:37 pm

#12 Leo on 06.16.20 at 5:01 pm
The diddling with TFSA has me concerned as I quickly try to max it…. should I consider a 50K loan to max it before the next budget?
——————————————————————
This also concerns me… not that I know any more than you do but I doubt they would eliminate room from previous years. Going forward is another story.

#28 drydock on 06.16.20 at 5:37 pm

Generation Z, Gen Z, Zoomers etc don’t work, no pizzaz.
They should be called (drum roll).
GEEZERS.
Get it, GEEZERS.
Ha ha ha.
OK GEEZER.
Ha ha ha.
Wunderbar.

#29 Nat on 06.16.20 at 5:38 pm

So what’s the dealio with TFSAs? That was my retirement plan, how can they “diddle” with that? Any tips Garth, max out ASAP?

#30 Lisa MacLeod the Succulent on 06.16.20 at 5:44 pm

The best social assistance is a job.

#31 Winterpeg on 06.16.20 at 5:46 pm

“Next month there’s an economic statement. In the spring, a budget.” GT
So an economic statement means..? no debate? just a state of the union of sorts?

#32 ts on 06.16.20 at 5:49 pm

#6 TurnerNation on 06.16.20 at 4:49 pm

I have to admit that as scary as your posts are, there is some truth to what you’re are stating especially in regard to “war for our minds”. It seem that every day this is becoming more apparent – especially with all the cheesy ads regarding “we’re all in this together” propaganda.

#33 Leftover on 06.16.20 at 5:51 pm

MMT also calls for no taxes, at least not until inflation exceeds growth. I wonder how many people know that?

Debt/Real Estate/CAD? I doubt much will happen until November 3rd, then batten down the hatches.

#34 Leo on 06.16.20 at 5:51 pm

#23 Mashingo Doblooba

That would essentially make the TFSA a regular taxable account. So then why have a limit?

I think it would be another reduction in the contribution limit going foreword which would make sense.

#35 BlogDog123 on 06.16.20 at 5:51 pm

We’re being blasted with news from all fronts… to our phones, TV, via social media,…

Federal / provincial / municipal debt, deficits and all the consequences are just noise…

Until we see our T1 next year… and see the total tax taken off our paycheques each year afterwards…

#36 Howard on 06.16.20 at 5:54 pm

Not sure why the Conservatives can’t simply frame their next campaign as the party defending the 60% who actually pay taxes?

Seems straightforward. Ignore the 40% freeloaders entirely. Pretend they don’t exist, except as an object of ridicule. “Talk to the hand”, in 90s parlance. Focus the platform on the taxpaying portion of the electorate. Show them how the Liberals, with NDP support, have hoovered up the fruits of their labour to transfer to the irreponsible and indolent. Explain how it is THEY who pay for the cash-for-kids while being DENIED that benefit for their own children. That is it THEY who pay for social housing for non-taxpayers while they are left to drift in a gasbag housing market made worse by government intervention. That it is THEY who pay for the CERB payments collected by foreign nationals and students gambling on the stock market.

The NDP want to offer free dental care to people earning under $70,000/year. I predict the Liberals will steal this issue in the next election. Another freebie paid for by the middle/upper-middle class while being denied access to that freebie. The Conservative have to write off the non-taxpayers as potential voters for them.

They should study the 1995 Common Sense Revolution in Ontario very carefully, because that was in large part Mike Harris’s playbook and it paid off handsomely.

#37 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.20 at 5:55 pm

#21 Yukon Elvis
Thank you for your update on foreign investment in Canada.
I think our relative low Covid numbers (outside Quebec) is enticing to investors.
Also, contrary to the opinion of many posters here, the decisive and quick decision by Trudeau to inject money into the economy is seen as positive step to stabilize the economy.
People, don’t bet against Canada.

#38 GrumpyPanda on 06.16.20 at 5:56 pm

Felix, my sympathies for the senseless decapitation of four cats in Woodbridge. Although this is a dog dominated blog I believe all warm-blooded pet lives matter.

#39 no blog for old men on 06.16.20 at 5:57 pm

Soooo, I should buy more TO real estate??

#40 Dr V on 06.16.20 at 5:58 pm

11 bizz – you don’t hit that tax rate until you’re over $200k
and after tax income in most provinces at that level is
more than $125k – even with deductions for CPP and EI
you should still be clearing near $10k/mo. Sure. Take the CERB. That’s smart.

#41 binky barnes on 06.16.20 at 6:00 pm

Fear not my friends. King Justin has everything under control. I promise–he knows exactly what he is doing.

#42 Paul on 06.16.20 at 6:01 pm

No one is buying firm from a virtual tour, Most do not want to pay for a home inspection prior to seeing the property.

#43 Nick on 06.16.20 at 6:01 pm

.
Finally rain is going away and it is getting bit sunny here in lower Brainland part of BC.

Realtors are getting the sunlight and lower Brainlanders are all fired up to put offers on homes – we will prove how wrong Siddall is….

#44 Howard on 06.16.20 at 6:04 pm

#10 conan on 06.16.20 at 4:56 pm

The CERB hurts business owners who offer lousy employment, no benefits, probably sub contractor status, and a : “you are fired a minute before you get injured policy.” These companies give the legit companies grief. No great loss here.

———————————–

You just described nearly every restaurant on the planet that isn’t part of a corporate chain.

A world with no bars or independent restaurants. Total conformity. North Korea.

#45 Samsara on 06.16.20 at 6:10 pm

You forgot GenX….typical.

#46 Mashingo Vanloobus on 06.16.20 at 6:14 pm

Retroactive taxes on am gains you have made in TFSA will be instituted to pay for CERB is my guess

#trudeau NEEDS more money to give away

#47 FreeBird on 06.16.20 at 6:18 pm

OpEd by CA firm in Nova Scotia. Good overview. Not sure how popular a 2-tier capital gains system would be.

https://www.bakertilly.ca/en/btc/publications/budget2020-the-capital-gains-inclusion-rate-dilemma

#48 George Can't Stand Ya on 06.16.20 at 6:20 pm

Ok Everyone. Easy here. Time to go Full George Costanza Method here and support Trudeau to the fullest. Give Trudeau more support and power and let’s try that instead of complaining this an that isn’t fair or whatever. Who cares about fairness. Let’s feed Trudeau as much power as possible and just accept it because look how awesome things are getting!

#49 Spend, tax, tax, tax Spend on 06.16.20 at 6:23 pm

Echo all the other posters question. What to do about TFSA room? Loan to max it out or sit and do nothing for now?

#50 greyhound on 06.16.20 at 6:28 pm

Watch the US dollar as MMT advances. Memories are short; MMT may affect currencies like Hemingway’s description of bankruptcy — their purchasing power may drop “gradually, then suddenly…”

#51 NFN_NLN on 06.16.20 at 6:29 pm

I think it’s safe to say that the COVID-19 Karen’s are also vocal about BLM.

These are faux activists looking for something to give their empty lives have meaning and purpose.

Turns out that focusing on shuttering the economy has ripple effects, exactly as predicted by… rational people:

“As poor countries around the world struggle to beat back the coronavirus, they are unintentionally contributing to fresh explosions of illness and death from other diseases — ones that are readily prevented by vaccines. This spring, after the World Health Organization and UNICEF warned that the pandemic could spread swiftly when children gathered for shots, many countries suspended their inoculation programs. Even in countries that tried to keep them going, cargo flights with vaccine supplies were halted by the pandemic and health workers diverted to fight it.

Now, diphtheria is appearing in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Cholera is in South Sudan, Cameroon, Mozambique, Yemen and Bangladesh. A mutated strain of poliovirus has been reported in more than 30 countries. And measles is flaring around the globe, including in Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nepal, Nigeria and Uzbekistan. Of 29 countries that have currently suspended measles campaigns because of the pandemic, 18 are reporting outbreaks. An additional 13 countries are considering postponement. According to the Measles and Rubella Initiative, 178 million people are at risk of missing measles shots in 2020. The risk now is “an epidemic in a few months’ time that will kill more children than Covid,” said Chibuzo Okonta, the president of Doctors Without Borders in West and Central Africa. As the pandemic lingers, the W.H.O. and other international public health groups are now urging countries to carefully resume vaccination while contending with the coronavirus.”

So, in the end, do Black Lives really Matter? When it comes to taking feel good pictures of your dog wearing #BLM signs, yes — when it really counts, nope.

#52 T on 06.16.20 at 6:29 pm

#14 Stone on 06.16.20 at 5:04 pm
But the US owns the world’s reserve currency. Our dollars are essentially priced in theirs. Creating more dilutes the value of all existing loonies, which leads to inflation. If you think buying a house is hard in Vancouver or Toronto now, just wait.

———

Uh, now you’re saying housing in Toronto and Vancouver will go up? Before today, you were all about deflation. Now, you’re saying inflation will make housing more expensive. Then, at the end of today’s post, you talk about housing prices dropping in the fall. Which is it? Harder? Easier? Hide at home and just collect CERB? Join Elon for a ride to the space station? Get a unicorn and make fairy wishes? Today was a very confusing ramble. It still gave me a good laugh but what is with all the talk out of both sides of the mouth?

——————

This blog has always been about current events and ‘what could happen if’.

For instance, if JT keeps throwing money around he could trigger inflation events which then could impact prices as every dollar has less value.

Pretty simple stuff.

I suggest visiting a good psychic if you are looking for predications. Just make sure you wear a mask.

#53 CJohnC on 06.16.20 at 6:31 pm

I find it amazing that T2 can pump out $2000 to whoever wants it (much of it fraudulently applied for) within a week or 2 and maintain it for months on end, but the piddling $300 extra for CPP recipients who are well documented in an already set up system takes 2 months. Maybe 2nd week of July apparently.

#54 Bytor the Snow Dog on 06.16.20 at 6:38 pm

Apparently they can print as much money as they want. So why pay taxes at all then?

#55 Big Jim and the Twins on 06.16.20 at 6:38 pm

Extending CERB until schools reopen in September is only logical. Day cares and day camps are not able to run at full capacity…you’ll be lucky to find something for your children to do even a few hours per day. Parents: keep your children stimulated and keep them safe.

#56 Rico on 06.16.20 at 6:39 pm

#11 bizz
#40 Dr V

Also note that that 54% is incremental tax rate. If you have kids and contribute to RRSPs then your total tax rate is more like 22%.
You want to live in a province that provides services, you gotta pay.

#57 Bytor the Snow Dog on 06.16.20 at 6:40 pm

@36 Howard- Good points. But they won’t do it. Even the “Conservatives” aren’t conservative anymore.

Witness Doug “Liberal” Ford.

Pander, pander, pander.

#58 islander on 06.16.20 at 6:41 pm

#36 Howard
“1995 Common Sense Revolution in Ontario very carefully, because that was in large part Mike Harris’s playbook and it paid off handsomely”

Certainly did for some, not so much for others.

Chartwell Homes owned by Mike Harris is an “open-ended real estate trust which indirectly owns and operates a complete range of seniors housing communities, from independent supportive living through assisted living to long term care.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid19-ltc-chart-1.5557748
Canada has an abysmal record when it comes to the long term care of its elderly population in ‘for profit’ care homes like those run by Mike Harris and his ilk.

Of course, if you are young, callous, and don’t believe those over 65 deserve to draw a breath, skip reading the above.

“More than 6,000 Canadians have died in long-term care homes from COVID-19, compared to 29 in Australia.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/australia-covid-19-long-term-care-1.5591912

Take a moment to read how Canada compares to Australia in its treatment of seniors in assisted living, long-term care etc.

Unless you are a multi-millionaire, go with ‘not-for profit’ or ‘public care’ for your elderly ‘loved ones’.

“In Canada, long-term care is offered through a mix of public, private for-profit, private not-for-profit, and religious-based providers.”

#59 NFN_NLN on 06.16.20 at 6:46 pm

#41 binky barnes on 06.16.20 at 6:00 pm
Fear not my friends. King Justin has everything under control. I promise–he knows exactly what he is doing.

///

You don’t do 1.5 years of teaching drama without learning a trick or two about running a country.

#60 Dolce Vita on 06.16.20 at 6:48 pm

Who knew Italia would be a position of safety if you value people that cannot wait to get to work (almost all have) vs. Canada, drunk on UBI money and prefer to stay at home and do nothing?

Are we sure we’re not caught it some Rod Serling time continuum warp bending the fabric of creation?

-Submitted for your approval.

#61 Faron on 06.16.20 at 6:50 pm

#7 Tater on 06.16.20 at 4:52 pm

Hey Tater,

Can you educate me (us) on your VIX comment from last post? How does high 19day vol and lower 30day vol create rising or stable VIX today. My naive understanding is that VIX is a measure of volatility based on put/call options on a given index. How the the past 19 and 30 day vol fit in? If the VIX is somewhat predictable, are you reading on that predictability?

Thanks

#62 Faron on 06.16.20 at 6:50 pm

Trading not reading

#63 Hard to predict the future on 06.16.20 at 6:54 pm

Thanks for the post Garth,
Imagine all the things on the table, higher personal taxes,
That’s a given some king of covid tax, that’s a given upping the tax on capital gains that’s a given, all easy to calculate, playing with TFSA, I cannot imagine what!
Lower limit? Somehow tax the gains? Who knows roll the dice. I think they will play with OAS and CPP as well. Take from the boomers and give to the bums. Groan.
Garth I have a question
I read as much as I can about the bank of Canada giving the government 300 billion, but how was in created a journal entry to the ledger? This will not end well?
But Japan has done it for years?
I have no idea how they can create money from nothing.

#64 Lee on 06.16.20 at 6:57 pm

#23,

Then it’s not a TFSA.

#65 Dolce Vita on 06.16.20 at 7:07 pm

#21 Yukon Elvis

Very good. Since in March Canada -$9.8 Billion in international transactions in securities…Bloomberg BNN forgot to mention that.

Go here instead of Bloomberg BNN…

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200616/t001a-eng.htm

Good news BETTER than bad news which incidentally follows…

——————

Bad:

Trade deficit -$3.3 billion (not uncommon).

Exports declined 29.7% to $32.7 billion in April, the lowest level in more than 10 years.

Imports declined 25.1% to $35.9 billion, a value not seen since February 2011.

StatCan:

“These declines, in both absolute value and percentage, are unparalleled, as monthly decreases of this magnitude have never been observed.”

#66 Nonplused on 06.16.20 at 7:11 pm

#7 Tater on 06.16.20 at 4:52 pm
Garth, I’ll buy and send you a copy of “The Deficit Myth” if you’ll read it.

——————

Why would he do that? I’d suggest anyone who thinks deficits are a myth might do better to read one of Garth’s books rather than write one.

Many countries throughout history have tried MMT in one form or another under different names and the result is always the same; complete abandonment of the currency after hyperinflation. The only thing new about MMT is perhaps that they put a limit on currency issuance by monitoring the inflation rate. But if that is the theory then the Federal Reserve has been practicing MMT since 1971 through their manipulation of interest rates.

The main problem that every government that has tried MMT has encountered is that creating more money doesn’t necessarily create more goods and services, so prices rise. Money isn’t real, and its value depends on scarcity and time value. It belongs in the category of weights and measures. It is more like an inch or an ounce than anything else, except that it measures relative value rather than relative size or weight.

It would be absolutely absurd to think you could make a 2×4 larger by printing more inches or something heavier by printing more ounces, but this is just what MMT proposes to do; increase the relative value available in the economy by issuing more units of measure. It is absurd on the face of it.

The Federal Reserve does indeed “print” money, but they use the printed money to buy assets (government bonds, gold, etc.) which have intrinsic value based on either scarcity or time value themselves, so the process is not inherently hyper-inflationary. They affect inflation indirectly by mucking with the prevailing market time value of money (if they bid up bonds interest rates will fall and conversely if they want rates to rise they sell bonds but that hasn’t happened in years).

In any case we already know what will happen. We don’t need fancy theories. Since the formation of the Federal Reserve the US dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power due to slight over-issuance every year to prevent deflation. If they decided to go whole hog and just print as much money as everyone would like the remaining 2% won’t last long.

Often the logical test of a theory is in the extremes. If MMT is correct and there are no limits on government deficits, why stop at $2000 a month? Why not give everyone a million dollars a month so we could all be super wealthy and poverty abolished? Oh wait, what’s that you say? “That would be totally ridiculous.” Ok, so you acknowledge there is a limit to how much money the government can issue but you think it’s somewhere between $2000 and a million dollars a month per person? I would contend the number is zero.

UBI has to be held distinct from unemployment insurance and CPP because, while underfunded, both those programs require people to pay in to them in order to qualify to take out when necessary. Healthcare likewise is not “free” in Canada, it is paid for through taxes. That is why we have free health care but no military to speak of.

The fact is that if wished were kisses I’d be scoring every single night. But wishing doesn’t make it so no matter how many books you read on how to improve your pick-up game. Fact is the writers of such books are just looking for a pay check. They don’t actually know anything. But there is no law against profiting from the credulous or we wouldn’t have psychics and astrologers. Put MMT in that category.

#67 Flop... on 06.16.20 at 7:19 pm

To anyone that thinks any of this is ending anytime soon.

CERB your enthusiasm…

M45BC

#68 twofatcats on 06.16.20 at 7:21 pm

A 5% flat tax on the sale of your principal residence will be implemented to pay for the scamdemic.

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.20 at 7:23 pm

#65 Dolce far niente

How are Bella Italia’s numbers stacking up?

#70 Rowdie on 06.16.20 at 7:25 pm

Creating money is called “Fiat” money, and it will be paid back to the Fed’s. High taxes, estate tax, and many more indiscriminate taxes you probably never thought of. Extending the CERB is only exploding the problem, why work, why go to school to educate yourself! All these goodies are for the pre-election of his Highness! Once T2 has his majority, he’s in full control, if not now. T2 is quite crafty, and I am sure he takes his orders from a higher supreme.

The rich and businesses will be taxed, as well as the saver’s.

Oh well, whatever happens life will be different, just manage the best we can, and a day to day check is good for now.

#71 Dolce Vita on 06.16.20 at 7:29 pm

At times, I like to make “Debbie Downer” Comments. Well, even Debbie got “downed” by Statcan and their COVID-19 Economic Dashboard and The Daily tidbits:

1. Household net worth declined 3.8% in the first quarter as the value of equity and investment funds fell 15.5%. The ratio of household credit market debt to disposable income rose to 176.9% in the first quarter, while the household debt-to-asset ratio increased to 17.3%.

2. National net worth, the sum of national wealth and Canada’s net foreign asset position, fell to $12,640.3 billion in the first quarter, down $126.9 billion from the fourth quarter of 2019.

3. Manufacturing sales fell by a record 28.5% to $36.4 billion in April, following a 9.8% decline in March.

4. Foreign investment in Canadian securities reached a record-high of $49.0 billion in April, all in debt securities. Meanwhile, Canadian divestment in foreign securities eased considerably to $134 million, following a record-level divestment in March.

————————-

Probably why UBI Canada wants to stay home, curl up with one of those big body pillows and watch

13 Reasons Why

…4 of them above.

#72 Goodbye TFSA on 06.16.20 at 7:35 pm

#64 exactly. No more TFSAs

#73 akashic record on 06.16.20 at 7:40 pm

Rich people are too lazy to protect their interest.
They don’t go to protest on the streets.
You will never see Our Tax Matter.

#74 Barb on 06.16.20 at 7:40 pm

#35 BlogDog123 on 06.16.20 at 5:51 pm

“Until we see our T1 next year…”

——————————–

Pierre sprung to mind.
Gawd no!

#75 yield curve control on 06.16.20 at 7:44 pm

get ready, it’s coming..

#76 april on 06.16.20 at 7:57 pm

CKNW has been talking alot today about the condo insurance crisis in the Lowermainlad BC. I wouldn’t buy a condo now…. far too risky.

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.20 at 7:58 pm

#59 NFN_NLN on 06.16.20 at 6:46 pm
#41 binky barnes on 06.16.20 at 6:00 pm
Fear not my friends. King Justin has everything under control. I promise–he knows exactly what he is doing.

///

You don’t do 1.5 years of teaching drama without learning a trick or two about running a country.
————–
Below is Trudeau’s political CV.
This guy is actually overqualified for the job, considering the guy down south.
And, Btw, what have you and binky done for the country?
————-
He was elected in 2008, and re-elected in 2011, 2015, and 2019. Justin was elected Leader of the Liberal Party in April 2013. His leadership campaign focused on building a new, truly national movement of progressive Canadians, bringing hundreds of thousands of Canadians into politics, most for the first time.

#78 Alphonse Kehaulic on 06.16.20 at 8:04 pm

#45 Samsara

Also forgot the Xcennials…

#32 ts

I would suggest that the goal is to break your naturally willful nature, to recast you into a drone if you’re not already. Bee all you can bee.
This will take a bit of time (but not as much time as you’d think) so get used to the commie slogans and the crushing of volition.
Dissent will not be tolerated, alternative opinions will not be tolerated.

#79 Flop... on 06.16.20 at 8:05 pm

Not opening up the US Border anytime soon.

They can’t stop my fantasies.

I am still able to get my hands on travel-porn like this…

M45BC

https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd583796.pdf

#80 IHCTD9 on 06.16.20 at 8:07 pm

Uh oh, now Indians are on the hit list too…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/carleton-petition-removal-gandhi-statue-1.5612763

East Asians, watch your back. I suppose you’ll be next.

#81 Jfish on 06.16.20 at 8:16 pm

Does it really matter what the deficit amount is ? Not being facetious, but this country and America have been in debit for decades. It will never be paid off. And if it does matter what is the number that dictates bankruptcy or a sufficient level of acceptance?

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.20 at 8:19 pm

#80 IHCTD9 on 06.16.20 at 8:07 pm
Uh oh, now Indians are on the hit list too…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/carleton-petition-removal-gandhi-statue-1.5612763

East Asians, watch your back. I suppose you’ll be next.
—————–
They are called South Asians now.
And most of them are Sikhs.
No love lost between them and India.
And Gandhi, he was not quite the saint as Hollywood pot rays him.

#83 Jay Hanson on 06.16.20 at 8:19 pm

Ian Lee on the radio said a 2% point increase to the GST or HST. This will bring in according to the so called economists, experts etc. $25 billion more a year.

The Trudeau, Morneau Federal Liberal will just state that it will bring in to back to 7% or 15% here in Ontario. I think Ian Lee is right but only a bit not 100%. They will bring it higher like in UK Europe, VAT taxes that are in the 19% to 22% sales tax, VAT tax rates.

Imagine, Every 1% point increase will bring in $12.5 billion, so 7% to 9% percentage points means a cool $87.5% to $112. billion in new revenue, higher taxes. They might call it a covid tax, a higher HST, GST whatever it is suddenly $300 to $400 billion more in debt does not seem alot when they can rake in almost another $90 to $100 billion more in annual taxes.

#84 mnpr on 06.16.20 at 8:25 pm

Looking like I made a good decision a few weeks ago to sell my ZRE and buy ZWU as, at least for the last few years, about 50% of REIT income is in the form of capital gains. Dividend income looking better now in comparison. Here’s hoping the feds don’t mess with that as well.

#85 CL on 06.16.20 at 8:26 pm

Of course you are right on all counts. However, the world is not normal and neither are people. Air BnB has not and won’t collapse although I wish it would. I don’t see anyone struggling to survive but many are out standing in line waiting to shop taking direction from nazi retailers who think they now have some power between 9-5.

So, I just don’t get it. What should be happening, is not. But, I assume that CERB is contributing to this distortion at the moment. Maybe.

Welcome to socialism. That’s absolutely where we are and are headed. Protect your assets because soon they will belong to “everyone”.

#86 IHCTD9 on 06.16.20 at 8:26 pm

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.16.20 at 7:58 pm
#59 NFN_NLN on 06.16.20 at 6:46 pm
#41 binky barnes on 06.16.20 at 6:00 pm
Fear not my friends. King Justin has everything under control. I promise–he knows exactly what he is doing.

///

You don’t do 1.5 years of teaching drama without learning a trick or two about running a country.
————–
Below is Trudeau’s political CV.
This guy is actually overqualified for the job, considering the guy down south.
And, Btw, what have you and binky done for the country?
————-
He was elected in 2008, and re-elected in 2011, 2015, and 2019. Justin was elected Leader of the Liberal Party in April 2013. His leadership campaign focused on building a new, truly national movement of progressive Canadians, bringing hundreds of thousands of Canadians into politics, most for the first time.
——

Indeed, now under Trudeau, climate change is sexist, we make International trade deals by bursting into tears, and the budgets balance themselves.

Oh, and a half Trillion in new debt (for zip) thanks to our supremely overqualified PM.

It’s a good thing he gives all my income taxes back, or he might lose my vote next year.

#87 Lead Paint on 06.16.20 at 8:32 pm

#80 IHCTD9 on 06.16.20 at 8:07 pm

I thought that was a joke… sadly not.

“University won’t pick sides” such brave leadership we have these days! MLK followed Gandhi’s model of non-violent protest. But I guess even that is not enough.

#88 akashic record on 06.16.20 at 8:33 pm

Organized tax payers are the most powerful political group. If they collectively refuse to pay taxes, there is no money to pay the tax collectors, the courts and the jails.

#89 Tim123 on 06.16.20 at 8:34 pm

I have to agree with much of the post. I also agree that real estate is an emotional purchase in which people become attached to a granite countertop or a nice kitchen. I see the same thing with novice investors who do not use mathematics and statistics when buying and selling investments. Those people who are buying houses this year will probably lose tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars because they did not do proper analysis. The equity market loves people like that. I mean for real estate purchases how difficult is it to turn on the news or go on the internet and check whether a pandemic is going on. It isn’t that hard to check the unemployment rate and try and figure out whether coronavirus will affect the economy. I would not buy a house just by looking at videos, that’s for sure. It is too easy to hide things on videos.

#90 Jake on 06.16.20 at 8:42 pm

#23 Mashingo Doblooba

Get taxed on gains in a tax-free account? It’s not a TFSA then. Reduction in contribution limit, that is more likely.

#91 Flop... on 06.16.20 at 8:48 pm

Been around the States a bit, I guess it’s fair to say you can tell what region you are in by looking at the t.v in the breakfast lounge.

Fox or CNN, I don’t crave either.

Have come home unexpectedly sometimes and caught my wife watching CNN.

Their version of balanced and diversified is probably 90/10, who am I kidding, maybe even 95/5.

Wife had it on last night, seeing what was happening in Atlanta and it got me thinking.

Out of all the main anchors that I see, in the rotation, maybe 5, who is the most balanced?

Definitely not Don Lemon.

I don’t mind some of Anderson Cooper’s non-political work, 60minutes sometimes he does good stuff.

The Aussie guy, Michael Holmes , who was a reporter, out on the beat doing world conflicts for Nine Network when I was growing up, seems to keep his personal opinions out of it, but he’s not in the top group of pecking order.

Of the main American guys is Chris Cuomo the most balanced at 75/25?

The guy with the beard, I don’t listen to.

Wolf, is it?

I only let one old guy with a beard yell at me at one time…

M45BC

#92 Fused on 06.16.20 at 8:50 pm

I would not be surprised to see a federal property tax implemented, nothing to write off or claim against like capital gains on a sale. People would be too upset and try to challenge the validity of a principle residence sales tax, especially who have a vested interest in real estate. The tax would start at a meager 1%, and since it would be perceived to be penalizing the rich more it will be more palatable to the public.

#93 well, well on 06.16.20 at 9:16 pm

@#80 IHCTD9 on 06.16.20 at 8:07 pm
Uh oh, now Indians are on the hit list too…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/carleton-petition-removal-gandhi-statue-1.5612763

East Asians, watch your back. I suppose you’ll be next.

——-

Hmm, had no idea ghandi was a huge racist.

#94 jess on 06.16.20 at 9:18 pm

The Use and Abuse of MMT
Posted on April 10, 2020 by Yves Smith

By Michael Hudson, with Dirk Bezemer, Steve Keen and T.Sabri Öncü

Michael Hudson is a research professor of Economics at University of Missouri, Kansas City, and a research associate at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. His latest book is “and forgive them their debts”: Lending, Foreclosure and Redemption from Bronze Age Finance to the Jubilee Year

Dirk Bezemer is a Professor of Economics at the University of Groningen in The Netherlands..

Steve Keen is a Professor and Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute for Strategy, Resilience and Security of University College London (www.isrs.org.uk). He blogs at http://www.patreon.com/profstevekeen

T. Sabri Öncü ([email protected]) is an economist based in İstanbul, Turkey

Summary

After being attacked by monetarists and others for many decades, MMT and the idea that running government budget deficit is stabilizing instead of destabilizing are suddenly gaining applause from the parts of the political spectrum that long opposed MMT: the banking and financial sector, especially the Republicans. But what is applauded is in many ways something quite different than the leading MMT advocates have long supported.

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) was developed to explain the logic of running government budget deficits to increase demand in the economy’s consumption and capital investment sectors so as to maintain full employment. But the enormous U.S. federal budget deficits from the Obama bank bailout after the 2008 crash through the Trump tax cuts and Coronavirus financial bailout have not pumped money into the economy to finance new direct investment, employment, rising wages and living standards. Instead, government money creation and Quantitative Easing have been directed to the finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) sectors. The result is a travesty of MMT, not its original aim.

By subsidizing the financial sector and its debt overhead, this policy is deflationary instead of supporting the “real” economy. The effect has been to empower the banking sector, whose product is credit and debt creation that has taken an unproductive and indeed extractive form.

This can clearly be seen by dividing the private sector into two parts: The “real” economy of production and consumption is wrapped in a financial web of debt and rent extraction – real estate rent, monopoly rent and financial debt creation. Recognizing this breakdown is essential to distinguish between positive government deficit spending that helps maintain employment and rising living standards, as compared to “captured” government spending to subsidize the FIRE sector’s extraction and debt deflation leading to chronic austerity.

Origins and Policy Aims of MMT read more @
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/the-use-and-abuse-of-mmt.html

=======
sweden ‘s

The economic consequences of the pandemic will be considerable,” Sweden’s central bank said in a recent report as it forecast an economic contraction for Sweden of between 7 and 10 percentage points for this year and unemployment of between 9 and 10 percent. Last year the jobless figure was 6.8 percent. The European Commission’s current forecast for the eurozone for 2020 is for an economic contraction of 7.75 percent.

The calamitous outlook for Sweden is a result of its reliance on exports, especially to the struggling eurozone and United Kingdom, officials say.

Exports keep around a million and a half of Sweden’s population of 10 million in work, and the upside of keeping restaurants and hair salons open can’t compensate for the huge downside of production stops at big manufacturers from Södertälje-based Scania trucks and Gothenburg-based Volvo cars.

“The crisis has shown us once again how export-dependent we are,

#95 MF on 06.16.20 at 9:23 pm

Eaglebay on 06.16.20 at 5:04

-Gonna agree.

Somewhere in the covid19 death stats you’ll find this comment section. Yeah yeah she was a sick before, but Covid killed it.

We used to “mostly” debate financial issues, some dog talk, and a healthy dose of testosterone related topics like Garth’s ripped abs and the amazons.

Covid had the inmates running the asylum. We went 2 weeks straight with a first comment essay about “elites” in dark rooms that hit like diarrhea hitting the back of the toilet bowl kicking things off. What followed was post after post of internet memes -from people who don’t understand what a meme actually is- being touted as truth. Anyone who disagreed was shamed and attacked as naive.

I don’t post as much anymore. I just read Garth’s wisdom about investments. I’m much happier and healthier for it. I suggest you do the same!

MF

#96 Ted fifty four on 06.16.20 at 9:49 pm

Not sure who’s providing the information on buyers Garth
but access to buyers viewing properties has not change since Covid Started in Simcoe County. Still 100% viewings in person I am not aware of any virtual purchase only. Perhaps you need to survey beyond the limited scope of the information you received. It’s not a thing in most markets in Canada

As stated, the survey was published by your own provincial body. Carp to them. – Garth

#97 TurnerNation on 06.16.20 at 9:55 pm

I am eagerly awaiting this weblog’s strict new Covid re-opening protocols. They must be new, strict and totally unscientific – designed to maximully disrupt if not destroy small business and relationships.
We must stop the spread! If we save even one life it’s all worth it.

#98 akashic record on 06.16.20 at 10:04 pm

#DefundTrudeau

#99 dr talc on 06.16.20 at 10:16 pm

For those who mock TurnerNation

https://agenda.ge/en/news/2017/2192

#100 Sparky55 on 06.16.20 at 10:20 pm

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476

Not good – China and India starting to battle

#101 Doug in London on 06.16.20 at 10:20 pm

Creating more dilutes the value of all existing loonies, which leads to inflation.
————————————————————-
Won’t inflation lead to higher interest rates? I suspect many younger people have no concept whatsoever of high interest rates, like back in 1981. Here we go again, the time tunnel has sucked me in and shot be back to my first car, a 1974 Vega. Don’t laugh, I got it real cheap. I’m on my way to watch the movie Time Bandits, while listening to new tunes I Will Follow by that fairly new group U2 from Ireland, followed by The Stroke by Billy Squire playing on my crappy Sears car stereo. It’s cranked up loud to drown out the noisy aluminum engine.

#102 NoName on 06.16.20 at 10:30 pm

#91 Flop… on 06.16.20 at 8:48 pm

In 2009 we were visiting my friend in Atlanta, so one day we after visiting old cocacola museum we went across street to cnn building to foodcourt to have lunch before we he’d out of the city, but we ended up taking cnn tour after lunch.

Anyways later on that day while having dinner with friend and his wife they asked us what we did during the day. So I did mention cnn tour and how I was impressed by all that, especially robot cameras that they claimed that it saved them 200k.

Funny part starts just after I was Don speaking, but I remembered my friend going of deep end asking me “didn’t you see that all that building is like communist building from back home.” And I was told ill be waking home. Boy was he ever disappointed with me day…

That was in 2009, I wonder what would happened now days if do same.

No word of the lie here…
I just consulted old photos it was a new coca cola museum.

PS Food court was good and ride on longest escalator wasn’t that exciting, excitement came later. I’ll mail him a picture of us in front of sign later on and aks hid did he sow latest Brain Setler interview and comment how good it was. Iam thinking it will be difficult typing tomorrow with broken fingers…

https://imgur.com/a/8cOkK0B

#103 Doug Stanfield on 06.16.20 at 10:38 pm

Since government workers benefit the most from their job security and benefits, pensions, retirement pay compared to private sector, lower pay, lower job security, no to little pensions, no to little retirement pay they should pay more taxes, higher taxes.

I would minimum say they should pay a 10% extra tax rate on their pensions, retirement benefits. A worker making even $40,000 a year which would not be making that in the private sector pension of from RRSP’s, RRIF’s not even close so a $4,000 a year in higher income taxes seems reasonable to me.

I just taking an example but 4 million government workers at $4,000 each more in annual income taxes would provide $16 billion in more annual income taxes.

The second most important longer term policies to stop this pile up of debt, deficits would be reforming pensions, benefits of government workers from a defined pension plan to a contribution pension plan. This would make taxpayers more off the hook and save at least $30 to $50 billion a year in annual savings in the next 10 years plus.

#104 Sparky55 on 06.16.20 at 10:44 pm

https://business.financialpost.com/executive/posthaste-rising-home-listings-point-to-a-troubling-trend-some-may-be-compelled-to-sell-their-property

#105 SoggyShorts on 06.16.20 at 11:00 pm

#83 Jay Hanson on 06.16.20 at 8:19 pm

Ian Lee on the radio said a 2% point increase to the GST or HST. This will bring in according to the so called economists, experts etc. $25 billion more a year.

The Trudeau, Morneau Federal Liberal will just state that it will bring in to back to 7% or 15% here in Ontario. I think Ian Lee is right but only a bit not 100%. They will bring it higher like in UK Europe, VAT taxes that are in the 19% to 22% sales tax, VAT tax rates.

Imagine, Every 1% point increase will bring in $12.5 billion, so 7% to 9% percentage points means a cool $87.5% to $112. billion in new revenue, higher taxes. They might call it a covid tax, a higher HST, GST whatever it is suddenly $300 to $400 billion more in debt does not seem alot when they can rake in almost another $90 to $100 billion more in annual taxes.
*******************************
I didn’t realize how big the impact was. I mean why didn’t we jack the GST by 5% years ago and come into covid Debt-free?
The interest even at today’s rates is 26B so if we didn’t have that then T2’s -25B budget would have actually balanced!

#106 Linda on 06.16.20 at 11:27 pm

I’d try to express my angst over the extension of CERB, the rumored ‘temporary’ Covid tax, the looming increases to taxation etc. but why bother? Obviously it will be rainbows & pony rides for all. As to who is going to pay for this party, I’m afraid I already know the answer. Science fiction author Robert A. Heinlein wrote about an alternate future called ‘the Crazy Years’. I’d say it isn’t fiction any longer, if indeed it ever was.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.16.20 at 11:31 pm

Another 8 weeks of CERB…… my Gawd….when will the opposition grow spines….hopefully the NDP (along with the Liberals) will wear this for 10 years after the economy tanks…….
Millennials will be paying for this long, long, long after the last Boomers are dust…….

#108 Between genX and millennials on 06.17.20 at 12:39 am

Hey Garth, why is it that people like you who think that government deficits are a really big problem only seem to talk about the problems of deficits when what’s being discussed is a downward transfer of wealth?

I mean, did I miss the columns you wrote about what a dumb idea f35s are for Canada because they’re too expensive, for example? (And anyway a war where we actually need them will kill everyone everywhere)

It seems like the concern with deficits only happens on a certain category of proposed ideas… Almost makes me wonder if this is a disingenuous argument by a conservative who generally wants government policy to transfer wealth upwards? Surely that’s not it, right?

#109 Daryl Carl on 06.17.20 at 12:44 am

DELETED

#110 jrochest on 06.17.20 at 1:13 am

#26 The students all left in March when U of T, Ryerson and York shut down. They won’t be back because all three are online only for the fall. I’m in the Annex and every building on St George and Walmer has at least two or three units standing vacant, and more coming into the pipeline. Rents will drop as a result.

#111 domain on 06.17.20 at 1:15 am

Liberal playbook:

1) Allow virus to take-hold and spread in Canada by dragging your arse with inbound infections.
2) Club the economy over the head like a baby seal
3) Inflict financial pain on population
4) Ride to the rescue with free Covid buck$
5) Watch your popularity skyrocket – ‘everyone’ loves “free money”
6) Keep telling people that the situation is dire to maintain a fearful and obedient population
7) Extend free money gravy train
8) Set your sights on the upper-middle class wealth yet to be confiscated
9) Trigger election and win
10) Finish the job on Canada and leave it an unrecognizable collection of bickering special interest groups without a national identity and no direction. Divide, distance, conquer.

#112 Diharv on 06.17.20 at 1:18 am

What a bunch of BS. The jobs are out there, it’s just that nobody wants to work and Trudeau is happy to oblige them. My wife and I are back in our practice. Youngest daughter just had to call up her old boss at Tims and say she wanted to come back, she left on great terms last August. My oldest daughter who will be taking a hiatus from post secondary just got a position that will probably lead to full-time at Safeway. People on CERB and students on CESB, there’s a massive amount of work available in the agricultural sector because the migrants can’t come, but you actually have to work and possibly get dirty. I can see this dependency creating debt machine being extended every eight weeks through the end of the year.

#113 Dirty Dan on 06.17.20 at 1:19 am

#93 well, well on 06.16.20 at 9:16 pm

Hmm, had no idea ghandi was a huge racist.

///

On the contrary, he was only 5’5″ and 110lbs.

I believe the definition of “racist” is morphing into “anti-communist”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-england-london-52972531/black-lives-matter-protest-why-was-churchill-s-statue-defaced

#114 domain on 06.17.20 at 1:25 am

One thing about printing money out of thin-air, which is what all central banks do.

Putting a Millenial-friendly name on it like MMT isn’t all that is. MMT is an unbridled approach to money printing with the delusion that the government can print and cause inflation and “mop it up” with taxes to balance it out when needed.

There are two funny things about money printing. First, every dollar is a credit ‘note’. When you hold a dollar in your pocket, you are extending credit to the BoC.

Second, currency isn’t redeemable for anything at the BoC and therefore not extinguished. Every dollar printed goes into circulation so to speak, which also ties back into this lunatic MMT. If the government “mops-up” the excess money they print, it isn’t redeemed, it just goes back into some other expenditure.

I am 40 and I am confident that I will witness the official end of our internationally-practiced monetary system in my lifetime. The collapse of currencies and repricing of assets like we have never witnessed. Obligations will remain for those who are thinking that they will be able to see their mortgage inflated away, so don’t bet on it.

#115 Shirl Clarts on 06.17.20 at 1:38 am

#4 ummm on 06.16.20 at 4:46 pm

And the guy dispensing your hard earned cash has a trust fund, plus makes $357,000 per year, plus a $2,000 per year car allowance, and RCMP detail. He will receive an annual Member of Parliament’s pension of $127,000, which will increase by $58,000 per year when he turns 67

Eligibility for pension is after just 4 years.

All you FIRE guys are like.. WHAAAAT!!?

Needless to say, his family is not worried about your future.

#116 Tater on 06.17.20 at 6:41 am

#61 Faron on 06.16.20 at 6:50 pm
#7 Tater on 06.16.20 at 4:52 pm

Hey Tater,

Can you educate me (us) on your VIX comment from last post? How does high 19day vol and lower 30day vol create rising or stable VIX today. My naive understanding is that VIX is a measure of volatility based on put/call options on a given index. How the the past 19 and 30 day vol fit in? If the VIX is somewhat predictable, are you reading on that predictability?

Thanks

—————————————————-

Small typo, should have been 10 day vol, to be clear.

VIX is a measure of implied vol from the options market. The options market will have higher implied vol, generally, when realized volatility is high. This is because the market makers earn (or lose) on the difference between realized and implied volatility.

Typically market makers are short the spread between implied and realized and over the long run, implied is generally higher than realized.

Since dealers are typically short options, when realized volatility moves up, they are losing money. So, they need to get paid at higher implied volatility to be incentivized to sell more options.

#117 Howard on 06.17.20 at 6:53 am

#58 islander on 06.16.20 at 6:41 pm
#36 Howard
“1995 Common Sense Revolution in Ontario very carefully, because that was in large part Mike Harris’s playbook and it paid off handsomely”

Certainly did for some, not so much for others.

Chartwell Homes owned by Mike Harris is an “open-ended real estate trust which indirectly owns and operates a complete range of seniors housing communities, from independent supportive living through assisted living to long term care.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid19-ltc-chart-1.5557748
Canada has an abysmal record when it comes to the long term care of its elderly population in ‘for profit’ care homes like those run by Mike Harris and his ilk.

—————————————

1) Do you actually have evidence that Mike Harris is personally culpable in nursing home abuses?

2) What does this have to do with the merits of the 1995 Ontario PC campaign as a model for the current federal Conservatives?

3) Are you a net taxpayer? I assume no?

#118 Tater on 06.17.20 at 7:33 am

#66 Nonplused on 06.16.20 at 7:11 pm
#7 Tater on 06.16.20 at 4:52 pm
Garth, I’ll buy and send you a copy of “The Deficit Myth” if you’ll read it.

——————

Why would he do that? I’d suggest anyone who thinks deficits are a myth might do better to read one of Garth’s books rather than write one.

Many countries throughout history have tried MMT in one form or another under different names and the result is always the same; complete abandonment of the currency after hyperinflation. The only thing new about MMT is perhaps that they put a limit on currency issuance by monitoring the inflation rate. But if that is the theory then the Federal Reserve has been practicing MMT since 1971 through their manipulation of interest rates.
————————————————————–

Ok, can you give a couple of examples of countries that have experienced hyperinflation without a real resource constraint or debt in a currency they don’t control?

As for the rest of what you wrote, MMT is not a prescription for how to run a government. It describes the process by which a monetary sovereign actually finances itself. From that, there are some conclusions that can be drawn and then policy can be implemented based on those conclusions.

#119 BillyBob on 06.17.20 at 8:03 am

#73 akashic record on 06.16.20 at 7:40 pm
Rich people are too lazy to protect their interest.
They don’t go to protest on the streets.
You will never see Our Tax Matter.

=======================================

Uhhh….sarcastic… I guess? Can’t tell.

The wealthy take a slightly more sophisticated approach to advancing and protecting their interests than throwing a brick through a window…

#120 Keen Reader on 06.17.20 at 8:04 am

@ 103 Doug Stanfield

Thru all of my 30+ year career, private-side employees have been making much more than people in my line of work (aviation), be it as an operator, manager, or exec. The DB pension was part of the deal, and we duly paid our dues into it. Not our fault if it now goes into General Revenues, but that doesn’t mean the taxpayers are solely funding PS pensions. Your suggestion as no merit whatsover.

#121 TurnerNation on 06.17.20 at 8:21 am

What’s in the future from our elites, living in this open air prison camp? “Flexible lockdowns”. They’re not even hiding it any longer. Lockdown is a Prison term.
“The truth is no longer hidden, people are hiding from the truth”
Remember, there is no more news. It is all programming and predicitive programming.
When you go shopping today stand on your Mark. Sit. Stay. Good diseased human. We are in the re-training phase…

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-15/coronavirus-lockdowns-after-second-wave-may-be-more-flexible?

——————–
– Want to see the future of old people?
From someone’s twitter feed in Ontario.
– Their mom three months ago visiting with family.
– Their mom today after being locked in isolation without visits for 3 months. Looking like death

BEFORE – 3 months ago:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eaqn0H-XgAYO1MZ?format=jpg&name=small

AFTER:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eaqn3KoWsAA0F3z?format=jpg&name=small

The New System has removed all compassion.
They are going after the most vunerable – keeping school kids and old people apart and isolated
A public company news release from FD.TO admits this today:

“HiQ serves as an organic addition to “HiRide Social”, HiRide’s recently introduced and virally growing socializing app. Both of these apps have been developed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, distinctly manifesting HiRide’s and Facedrive’s determination to help young Canadians cope with negative effects of social isolation.

HiQ is designed to encourage people to socialize, make new connections, and keep their minds stimulated by competing in various trivia games. The app’s algorithm is built to match users that have similar interests, thus offering an environment conducive to the creation of meaningful peer-to-peer connections from the comfort of users’ homes. Moreover, users will have the opportunity to win cash prizes, as well as merchandise and incentives by HiRide’s and Facedrive’s corporate partners, for competing in weekly trivia challenges.”

– Connecting human’s with computers is the goal, as per Elon’s Musk’s own stated goals (he’s a smiling front man: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink

#122 Loonie Doctor on 06.17.20 at 8:51 am

#73 akashic record on 06.16.20 at 7:40 pm
Rich people are too lazy to protect their interest.
They don’t go to protest on the streets.
You will never see Our Tax Matter.

—————————————————————-

Maybe they are busy working and being productive? They are also probably smart and know they are outnumbered.
-LD

#123 Dharma Bum on 06.17.20 at 9:16 am

#80 IHCTD9

Uh oh, now Indians are on the hit list too…
——————————————————————–

As the social justice nazis increase their scope of victims, they adapt their self serving narrative to eventually include EVERYONE as an enemy of the state. They want to rewrite history to suit their own fictitious state of mind.

By the way, if that statue were to have been carved out of a tree, would it be called…

Wood Gundy?

#124 Dharma Bum on 06.17.20 at 9:22 am

#111 Domain

Finish the job on Canada and leave it an unrecognizable collection of bickering special interest groups without a national identity and no direction.
——————————————————————–

Uhhh……Canada is already in that exact state. It has been for at least the last 70 years.

The only unifying aspect of Canada is Tim Hortons.

And welfare.

#125 YVR Expat on 06.17.20 at 9:28 am

“We get the world we deserve” ~ True Detective

https://youtu.be/h-34BpM2LoA

#126 David Pylyp on 06.17.20 at 9:30 am

“But what about all these virtual tours and the inability of buyers to actually go and see what they’re purchasing? Surely that is a huge obstacle to selling something as visceral, physical and tactile as real estate?”

There are two things here;
The Touchless Virtual Tour that i create to show your property, related floorplan….

Then I can go see the property with an iphone and FACETIME your specific LOOK SEE in that corner. I encourage IRL final showings to confirm everything is as you expected/

I do not recommend that the “ENTIRE” family [cousins uncles aunt inlaws] show up for the Home Inspection BUT they are getting done too.

So also is the appraisal. / Appraiser

Its going to be an interesting summer.

Cheers

David Pylyp
Toronto

#127 Eliza Manzana on 06.17.20 at 9:34 am

DELETED

#128 Phylis on 06.17.20 at 9:49 am

#122 Loonie Doctor on 06.17.20 at 8:51 am
#73 akashic record on 06.16.20 at 7:40 pm
Rich people are too lazy to protect their interest.
They don’t go to protest on the streets.
You will never see Our Tax Matter.
————————
How about Taxed Lives Matter?
Oh, I’m going to burn for this one.

#129 TurnerNation on 06.17.20 at 10:10 am

#99 dr talc yes it’s a global rollout to A.I.-based policing. Compassion has been removed, dealing with computers only . Covid is an excuse for the new global order into 2021
Daily changes are planned…until we no longer have an Old System.
It will be h-ll on earth. It will be so unsafe outside in large cities that you will #stayhome – which is what they sold us on Day One right?

I see 3 shootings in the GTA area last night. The UN is pushing us to defund, DISARM the police.
Toronto – this is a city councilor’s web site! This is a global agenda, not only here.
But hey my posts here are the problem, say the mentally unbalanced people.

https://joshmatlow.ca/defund-rebalance-invest/

“City Council request the Toronto Police Service Board to establish an explicit policy to immediately ban the use of deadly force and military-style weapons against unarmed civilians, including but not limited to firearms, chemical weapons, including tear gas or armoured vehicles, and to dispose of all such weapons by no later than one year by June 30, 2021.”

“City Council direct the City Manager to work with Black, Indigenous and People of Colour community-led organizations, mental health, restorative justice and legal experts to identify alternative 911 and other emergency responses to replace armed police officers with mobile, community-based crisis programs as first responders to de-escalate and triage non-criminal incidents of crisis involving mental health and addictions, “

#130 Flop... on 06.17.20 at 10:27 am

Bored of toppling all the statues, the movers and shakers have moved onto food.

I don’t get the Coco Pops is racist meme.

So they had a monkey on the box, how many other companies have a monkey as their sales mascot?

A local arborist company called Monkey Tree Services should hide all their vehicles before the windows get smashed, you’ve got the word monkey in the title, clearly racist, get ’em.

Growing up in Australia, our favourite cheese was called Coon.

It is also a derogatory term for an Aboriginal, and possibly anyone of colour.

It has survived this long maybe this time the food police will finish it off.

But what will I put on my cracker?

Crackers, oops, can I still say that slur to poor white people?

Coon on crackers, probably o.k to eat, as the black slur is canceled out by the white slur.

Where will it end?

It’s bananas…

M45BC

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8423841/Disgraced-ex-MP-Fiona-Onasanya-slams-Kelloggs-using-MONKEY-mascot-Coco-Pops.html

#131 IHCTD9 on 06.17.20 at 10:34 am

#114 domain on 06.17.20 at 1:25 am

MMT is an unbridled approach to money printing with the delusion that the government can print and cause inflation and “mop it up” with taxes to balance it out when needed.
———

Proponents of MMT did not spend much time thinking about the voters. In Canada, talking about increasing taxes Across the board ensures the end of your political power. They’d either have to just do it with no warning, or abolish voting.

Also in Canada, there will be no option to reduce printing to get a handle on inflation, as that will get you booted from power even faster.

I also have a hunch that all the spending will not be evenly spread, not even close – and a huge disparity in financial outcomes will result from it.

That said, I look forward to the day; as I will likely be able to cash in on the handouts, but avoid the taxes imposed when inflation kicks in. I’m also far enough away from the big cities to avoid the eventual riots.

#132 Lambchop on 06.17.20 at 11:06 am

Well, the world has gone insane.
The only way to fight back against the SJWhurt-feelings crowd is to be brave and strong within your immediate circle of family and friends.
Anytime someone, no matter who it is, says something ridiculous in support of cocopuff racism, stand up and say something. I always ask people to defend their ludicrous positions and they rarely can.

Canada is not a racist country. We are not without culture. We are not post-national.

Stop letting a minority with an agenda assert their questionable ideologies onto you. You were born with a huge brain, use it.

I know I will get flamed for saying this but get over yourself. Not everyone believes the pablum that we are spoon fed and some critical thinking is required.
You know you’re not racist. I know I’m not racist. In all my lifetime I have not even met enough racists in Canada to count on one hand, and none of them were white.

#133 IHCTD9 on 06.17.20 at 11:14 am

#130 Flop… on 06.17.20 at 10:27 am
Bored of toppling all the statues, the movers and shakers have moved onto food.

I don’t get the Coco Pops is racist meme.

So they had a monkey on the box, how many other companies have a monkey as their sales mascot?
——-

It’s funny how the BLM activists aren’t trying to shut folks like Fiona Onasanya up – and quickly.

Surely they must realize that this is how your movement loses its legitimacy no?

I mean, how seriously am I going to take BLM advocates when they’re going ape$hit over a monkey on a box of cereal? Surely this does not offend normal everyday black folks right? It must be just because the BLM activists themselves have lost it.

They’ve already got all kinds of trouble with looters and rioters, and now they want PC/SJW breakfast cereal?

#134 Flop... on 06.17.20 at 11:24 am

What is Captain Showbag giving out today?

I can’t look.

As Tattoo said on Gilligan’s Island…

Boss, boss, the pain, the pain…

M45BC

#135 whiplash on 06.17.20 at 12:10 pm

Good-bye Aunt Jemima pancake mix and syrup–too racist! Name change coming soon, pathetic !!

#136 TurnerNation on 06.17.20 at 12:16 pm

ON’s Furher extends ‘State of Emergency’ yet again. The war on small business and on peoples’ minds continues.
No science, big data or health rational was provided for blanketing the entire province with another round of economic b0mbing.

Can the New System become any more absurd? Communism sure is funny. The government controlling literally every step we take outside and what comes out of our mouths.

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2020/06/ontario-bans-singing-and-dancing-restaurant-patios/

#137 SoggyShorts on 06.17.20 at 12:25 pm

#101 Doug in London on 06.16.20 at 10:20 pm
Creating more dilutes the value of all existing loonies, which leads to inflation.
————————————————————-
Won’t inflation lead to higher interest rates?

*****************************************

“Ah, the 1980s. It’s not a decade that shot the lights out music-wise, but the GIC returns were pretty great. Take 1983. A 5-year GIC paid 11.3%, and inflation was only running at 4.6%; that’s a real return of 6.7%”
https://www.ratehub.ca/blog/the-history-of-gic-rates/

While I lived through them as a kid, I never actually experienced high-interest rates. I sure would love to have a safe portion of my portfolio give me 7% real returns.*
I mean the whole FIRE community pretty much (wrongly) assumes a safe withdrawal rate of 4%.

*Note: I am aware that it sucked to have a 19% mortgage, but I think all mortgages suck.

#138 JB on 06.17.20 at 12:26 pm

#26 Howard on 06.16.20 at 5:36 pm

I’ve been tracking the condo rentals on offer on condos.ca for the past month.

On May 20 there were 3972 condos seeking tenants in downtown Toronto (the area that they define as DT anyway).

Today there are 5080 condos downtown seeking renters. A 28% supply increase in less than a month.

Since I don’t have last year’s data, I cannot conclude that this is abnormally high. Maybe it’s normal to see such a flood of supply in May/June due to student leases ending?
…………………………………………………………………….
Not students I can confirm that as we have five acquaintances that have listed their condos and are exiting before the firestorm envelopes their investments. They have all noticed an increase in the number of sales within their own buildings. Most have been investors snapping them up for rental and first in investors getting out. All five have stated that they no longer want to be in a building filled with renters. Their opinion right or wrong is that most renters just don’t give a damn about the property as it is not theirs. I would tend to agree with them on that. Pride of ownership is something most people feel strongly about. The yucky lift ride with sneezy, coughy, smelly perfumed people and the mass congregation of stacked humans is getting them down. Is this a sign of the future? Have you ever seen pictures of chickens in those cages stacked 5 metres high? No wonder there is so much death and disease at those slaughterhouses. Second wave is coming!

#139 Damifino on 06.17.20 at 12:36 pm

#134 Flop…

As Tattoo said on Gilligan’s Island…
—————————–

I think you’ve got your situation comedies mixed up. ‘Tattoo’ was a character on ‘Fantasy Island’.

Not that I ever watched.

‘Captain Showbag’, though… I do like that.

#140 Don Guillermo on 06.17.20 at 12:43 pm

#152 Sail Away on 06.15.20 at 11:23 pm
#134 lager on 06.15.20 at 9:25 pm
amusing how rand ended up on social security
——————-
Oh yeah, real amusing.
‘Ended up on social security’ in the same way everyone here will end up ‘on’ CPP, or end up ‘on’ RRSP.
Foolishness. She paid into it and was fully entitled to her benefit. I too will end up on Social Security from working (and involuntarily paying into it) in the US and will likewise end up on CPP here.
If you want to slam somebody, use something legit. That was just dumb. And really weak.
******************************************
Resurrecting the Ayn Rand convo … an acquaintance of mine from San Francisco (who loves alcohol) retired and move to Mexico because it was more affordable.

He used have this “inspirational saying” tagged to the end of all his emails.

“Ayn Rand, Rand Paul and Paul Ryan walk into a bar. The bartender serves them tainted alcohol because there are no regulations. They die.”

I modified and returned it to him as:

“Ayn Rand, Rand Paul and Paul Ryan walk into a bar in San Francisco. The bartender charges them an excessive amount for alcohol because of extreme taxes and regulations . They move to Mexico.”

He never did thank me.

#141 Gravy Train on 06.17.20 at 12:45 pm

#134 Flop… on 06.17.20 at 11:24 am
“[…] As Tattoo said on Gilligan’s Island…” Wasn’t it called Fantasy Island? :)

#142 Faron on 06.17.20 at 1:04 pm

#108 Between genX and millennials on 06.17.20 at 12:39 am

“It seems like the concern with deficits only happens on a certain category of proposed ideas… Almost makes me wonder if this is a disingenuous argument by a conservative who generally wants government policy to transfer wealth upwards? Surely that’s not it, right?”

If you get an answer from anyone here it will be along the lines of trickle-down economics despite the fact that since the term was coined and the programs largely put into play, the social support network in the US has been eroded, middle and low income earners have seen zero post-inflation wage growth, wealth at the top end has exploded upwards and the stock market has done just fine (that largely benefits the stock owners that are largely wealthy by stripping profits out of consumers in order to raise dividends and valuations). The actuality of torrent-up economics occurs at both the federal and the corporate levels. Any attempts to reverse this state of affairs will be met with cries “foul” and reasons will be given why it’s “unfair” to change the structure when the underlying sentiment is sheer greed. Holding 5 million isn’t enough, holding 10 million isn’t enough, holding 100 million isn’t enough etc. etc.

The missed opportunity is that true wealth equality would almost certainly lead to social stability and peace. But, again, then you aren’t selling F35s so someone wont be happy… A capitalist system wont self-organize in any other way than trickle up and because money == power (just look at the tone of the business owning posters here constantly calling questioners “children” or telling them to “grow up”) it’ll be very hard to reverse the policy to benefit those who have less.

#143 Don Guillermo on 06.17.20 at 1:19 pm

#135 whiplash on 06.17.20 at 12:10 pm
Good-bye Aunt Jemima pancake mix and syrup–too racist! Name change coming soon, pathetic !!
********************************************

I just did a search on the product. Current label has an image of a beautiful black women. Pathetic indeed!

#144 Sail away on 06.17.20 at 1:21 pm

#140 Don Guillermo on 06.17.20 at 12:43 pm

Resurrecting the Ayn Rand convo … an acquaintance of mine from San Francisco (who loves alcohol) retired and move to Mexico because it was more affordable.
He used have this “inspirational saying” tagged to the end of all his emails.

“Ayn Rand, Rand Paul and Paul Ryan walk into a bar. The bartender serves them tainted alcohol because there are no regulations. They die.”

I modified and returned it to him as:
“Ayn Rand, Rand Paul and Paul Ryan walk into a bar in San Francisco. The bartender charges them an excessive amount for alcohol because of extreme taxes and regulations . They move to Mexico.”

He never did thank me.

——————-

So ungrateful, and so sensational to expect laxer regs would result in instant death.

I buy most of my liquor by the case for cash from a local moonshiner at $12/bottle (minus $1/ea if the bottles are returned). He does some special batches of slivovitz in the fall that are just excellent. None of his customers have died or gone blind yet. It’s really bad business to kill your customers…

#145 Sail away on 06.17.20 at 1:49 pm

#142 Faron on 06.17.20 at 1:04 pm

A capitalist system wont self-organize in any other way than trickle up and because money == power (just look at the tone of the business owning posters here constantly calling questioners “children” or telling them to “grow up”)

———————

Well, business owners spend most of their time thinking about, working on, and learning about business, and have a deep knowledge and experience base about the subject.

If business owners are respectfully questioned, I have no doubt the questioner would get an informed and polite answer.

But… that’s not the way it usually happens on an internet forum, is it? Far more common is for a totally uneducated wing nut to come out of left field insulting business owners and demanding changes be made for a perfectly equitable work environment, or something equally ludicrous.

So, yes, when somebody with zero experience comes in to tell, not ask, but tell, owners how to do something they’ve been successfully doing for many years, and accuses them of a litany of unfair (in the wing nut’s estimation) practices, then yes, business owners can become a bit testy.

#146 Flop... on 06.17.20 at 1:50 pm

#139 Damifino on 06.17.20 at 12:36 pm
#134 Flop…

As Tattoo said on Gilligan’s Island…
—————————–

I think you’ve got your situation comedies mixed up. ‘Tattoo’ was a character on ‘Fantasy Island’.

Not that I ever watched.

‘Captain Showbag’, though… I do like that.

//////////////

Hey Damf, I’m glad you liked Captain Showbag.

Referring to the Prime Minister of this country for those that did not catch it.

The other thing?

Can I blame that on spellchecker?

Might as well give a shoutout to Gravy as well.

What have you been up to, you had a good break from the blog molasses?

Frying eggs on your solar panels is my bet…

M45BC

#147 jess on 06.17.20 at 2:18 pm

ppp- when a teller is an app fintech peer to peer ?

…”According to the FDIC, Cross River Bank has only one branch office and has been around for just 12 years. The $5.3 billion that the Fed has reimbursed to Cross River Bank is more than twice its total assets of $2.5 billion as of March 30. Cross River Bank has made more than 50 percent of the dollar amount that Wells Fargo has made in PPP loans but it has only 250 employees rather than the 250,000 employees working for Wells Fargo to review and process these PPP loans.

..”In December of last year, Antoine Gara, a finance writer and associate editor at Forbes, unraveled some of the mystery around this peculiar little bank. Gara described Cross River Bank’s headquarters’ office in Fort Lee, New Jersey as follows:“Cross River is not a typical community bank.

There are no tellers here, or ATMs or safe deposit boxes. Instead there are 175 bank staffers and traders stuffed elbow to jowl into about 23,000 square feet, peering into hundreds of computer monitors—often stacked three per desk. There are startup touches—a kitchenette stocked with LaCroix sparkling water, gourmet coffee and a game room.

“Cross River is on a lending tear. It is underwriting loans at the rate of more than $1 billion a month—some $30 billion worth in just nine years. But unlike in banks of yesteryear, virtually all Cross River’s lending officers aren’t human beings. They are apps. Cross River’s loans originate mostly from 15 or so buzzy venture-capital-backed financial technology startups, so-called fintechs, that go by names like Affirm, Best Egg, Upgrade, Upstart and LendingUSA. The fintechs provide the customers; Cross River provides the licenses and infrastructure. It holds 10% to 20% of each loan it issues, and the massive volume of fintech loans has propelled Cross River to $2 billion in assets, up from $100 million a decade ago.”
Daily Cover|77,125 views|Dec 17, 2019,07:04am EST
The Forbes Investigation: Inside The Secret Bank Behind The Fintech Boom
In 2018 the FDIC found that Cross River Bank “engaged in unsafe or unsound banking practices by failing to ensure an adequate compliance management system was in place….” The FDIC fined the bank $641,750 and made it contribute to a $20 million restitution fund to reimburse harmed consumers.
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/06/the-feds-paycheck-protection-program-gave-a-tiny-nj-bank-5-3-billion-9-percent-of-all-the-money-its-spent-thus-far/
https://www.consumerbankers.com/content/fdic-announces-settlement-cross-river-bank-unfair-and-deceptive-practices

#148 akashic record on 06.17.20 at 2:32 pm

Trudeau can’t print land and REAL estate and he can’t shut down people’s houses, condos, like companies, destroying corporate earnings and investors return.

#DefundTrudeau

#149 Sail away on 06.17.20 at 2:42 pm

#142 Faron on 06.17.20 at 1:04 pm

Re: Business Owners

And further… it’s quite common for business owners to suggest critics start their own business. Starting a business is not hard to do and if someone has hard and fast ideas about the way a business should operate, then hey: fill your boots.

Until then, maybe be tactful.

Or not. Maybe try the same tactics in other circumstances: maybe a single guy without kids could openly and clearly tell a mother of three little kids she’s making big mistakes, and point out the way it should be done.

#150 Don Guillermo on 06.17.20 at 2:45 pm

#144 Sail away on 06.17.20 at 1:21 pm
#140 Don Guillermo on 06.17.20 at 12:43 pm
Resurrecting the Ayn Rand convo … an acquaintance of mine from San Francisco (who loves alcohol) retired and move to Mexico because it was more affordable.
He used have this “inspirational saying” tagged to the end of all his emails.
“Ayn Rand, Rand Paul and Paul Ryan walk into a bar. The bartender serves them tainted alcohol because there are no regulations. They die.”
I modified and returned it to him as:
“Ayn Rand, Rand Paul and Paul Ryan walk into a bar in San Francisco. The bartender charges them an excessive amount for alcohol because of extreme taxes and regulations . They move to Mexico.”
He never did thank me.
——————-
So ungrateful, and so sensational to expect laxer regs would result in instant death.
I buy most of my liquor by the case for cash from a local moonshiner at $12/bottle (minus $1/ea if the bottles are returned). He does some special batches of slivovitz in the fall that are just excellent. None of his customers have died or gone blind yet. It’s really bad business to kill your customers…
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I’m sure the alcohol in Mexico will kill him but it won’t be because it’s tainted. He literally buys tequila and single malt whiskies weekly by case lots from Walmart Mx.

#151 Faron on 06.17.20 at 2:59 pm

#145 Sail away on 06.17.20 at 1:49 pm

#142 Faron on 06.17.20 at 1:04 pm

“totally uneducated wing nut”

That would be true if a) I was uneducated and b) if my views were not founded in the thought and literature of other highly educated folks and whose ideas are held by Buffet himself among many other business owners.

Provide evidence that trickle-down has done anything but strip wealth from less well-off workers and put that wealth into your or my hands. I hope your answer isn’t “provide inexpensive plastic crap to consumers via walmart” because I don’t think owning materialistic garbage counts as “wealth”.

Show me that policy (almost all of it from either party) isn’t formed in the US under the pressure of lobbyists representing the 1%. Show me how the Citizens United ruling allowing virtually unlimited funds to flow into the US political system helped those less well off. Show me that the Trump tax cut didn’t put billions into the hands of those who already have billions through share buybacks. No, one-time bonuses to employees, while nice, don’t help much in the long run. Show me that COVID lockdowns, what you like to call a gov’t caused crisis so I’ll run with that for a sec, hasn’t made the extremely rich all the more richer including, apparently, yourself through your claimed stock market wins, business growth and federal subsidy taking. A growing economy does zero good for anyone middle-class or poorer when inflation is outpacing wage growth at that end all the while the wealthiest are benefiting from the growth by some large multiple and the gap grows.

Many here seem to think that those making bottom-end wages are lazy (with all your references to week smoking and Netflix) or stupid. It’s highly unlikely that the expansion of the poor is a result of some strange lowering of IQs. Occams razor suggests the simpler answer (that it’s simply harder than ever to get ahead) is the correct one.

Show me that you didn’t hide from my question by slandering me and hoping it would go away. I would expect a level-headed business owner like yourself to suck it up from an uneducated fool like me and answer the question. But I guess the internet threatens you somehow?

Anyhow, I’ll categorize that under the patronizing tone mentioned previously. It’s fascinating how huffy and whiny y’all get when you don’t get the “respect” you think you deserve, but that’s another discussion.

#152 Overheardyou on 06.17.20 at 3:02 pm

#55 Big Jim and the Twins on 06.16.20 at 6:38 pm
Extending CERB until schools reopen in September is only logical. Day cares and day camps are not able to run at full capacity…you’ll be lucky to find something for your children to do even a few hours per day. Parents: keep your children stimulated and keep them safe.

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Kids need to learn that life is full of risks. Helicoptering them won’t help. Just look at the Mills. Plus, as a parent, it’s your responsibility to be prudent enough to save for hard times. Like these. Sounds like someone had their eyes on the wrong prize.

#153 Faron on 06.17.20 at 3:21 pm

#150 Don Guillermo on 06.17.20 at 2:45 pm

I’m sure the alcohol in Mexico will kill him but it won’t be because it’s tainted. He literally buys tequila and single malt whiskies weekly by case lots from Walmart Mx.

That’s sincerely sad to hear. I hope he finds some help.

#154 maxx on 06.17.20 at 3:27 pm

@ #48

LOL!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbxsZjagMVA

#155 Sail away on 06.17.20 at 3:40 pm

#151 Faron on 06.17.20 at 2:59 pm

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So sensitive Faron… I wasn’t speaking of you necessarily; more the vast and erratic population of wing nuts striving for maximum entropy through Brownian motion. You may very well be one, though. I grant you that.

And it would have been libel, not slander, due to word definition. I sense you may be an academic. You should know that. Literally.

But sorry to go off on a tangent. You were telling me how businesses should be run? From, like, your reading?

Here’s a tip: Don’t worry about macroeconomics until you are very, very rich. Macroeconomics do not apply to you and your $5,000 car. Worry about personal finance, budgeting, and balancing your checkbook.

#156 Sail away on 06.17.20 at 3:53 pm

#153 Faron on 06.17.20 at 3:21 pm
#150 Don Guillermo on 06.17.20 at 2:45 pm

I’m sure the alcohol in Mexico will kill him but it won’t be because it’s tainted. He literally buys tequila and single malt whiskies weekly by case lots from Walmart Mx.

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Something will probably kill him, anyway. Seems like it happens to almost everyone.

#157 Uncle Ben on 06.17.20 at 6:42 pm

#135 whiplash on 06.17.20 at 12:10 pm
Good-bye Aunt Jemima pancake mix and syrup–too racist! Name change coming soon, pathetic !!

I’m ok, right?