Pay up

Regular addicts may recall bold blog dog words such as these being published here over the last few weeks:

I am one of the 700,000 Canadians not paying my mortgage at the moment.  Lately you have been bashing those deferring as not having any savings and just spending on Netflix and N95’s and completely house poor.

We have a home worth about $850k and a $265k mortgage.  $300k invested in a relatively B/D self-directed portfolio and $20k in cash. No other Debt. Could I pay?  Yes.  But why be in a hurry when money is so cheap?

My reasoning behind not paying is:
1. Our variable rate on the mortgage is 1.45% – why cash in my BMO stock paying me 6.24% divvies to pay down a mortgage at 1.45% (coincidentally with the same bank)
2. We will be putting a new roof on this summer as well as sending a child off to Uni in September.  If we kept paying the mortgage, by late fall – the cash in the bank might be depleted and we might have to dip into our investments.

Cashing out some of the investments now or in the fall would force us to take a loss.  Should I really have more than $20k in cash and be opting to continue to pay BMO? Not sure you’ll reply but wanted to give you my perspective.  Am I nuts?

Probably. For taking an unnecessary risk – which is the worst kind. With almost a million in net worth and (presumably) a job, how can you not service a $265,000 mortgage at 1.45%? What’s the need to sell stock? That’s only a grand a month, so deferring it for half a year would save but $6,000 in cash flow. The interest, of course, gets tacked onto the mortgage principal – so it grows. Not a great outcome. And this is not the sole cost.

Second, with a portfolio of only $300,000, why’s it full of bank stock? The dividends are nice, but the volatility can be a stress – certainly not sounding like a ‘balanced & diversified’ account. (No normal person should own individual equities with less than seven figures in a portfolio.) As for the kid and the roof, what was the plan before the virus hit? Sounds like Covid and the advent of deferrals furnished an excuse to paper over lousy budgetary habits and sketchy personal discipline. Don’t try to make this sound like a genius financial strategy. It’s not.

Hundreds of thousands of people have deferred payments on $180 billion in mortgages. This is troubling for so many reasons. First, those who would lose their homes after three or four months because they lacked an income, savings, resources, investments or an emergency fund or LOC and could make no payments since they own more debt than equity, made bad choices. They should not own real estate they cannot afford. By doing so they imperiled themselves and their families reaching for an asset obviously beyond their means. They failed. The lenders giving them the financing failed. Society with its maniacal obsession with houses failed. Covid proved this.

When the deferral cliff comes in autumn this will not be a happy time in many lives. Jobs will return, but far more slowly than they were snatched away. We’ll all pay for real estate lust.

Second, those folks who can pay their obligations but chose not to must think they’re gaming the system. The pandemic, they believe, gives cover for sticking it to the bank – diverting money into toys, renos or a TFSA – without consequences. Prepare, ye delusional serfs. This may not end well.

The credit bureaus – Equifax and TransUnion – are doing what they’re supposed to,  recording deferred payments as missed ones. They may well be listed correctly on your credit report but heed these words from mortgage broker Rob McLister: “Mortgage deferrals aren’t supposed to hurt people’s credit scores but when a mainstream lender sees you’ve had a deferral, it’s nonetheless a red flag.”

What does that mean?

Just what you’d imagine. Lenders who note you could not (or would not) make mortgage payments for a number of months could, according to McLister, scrutinize your income and analyze the stability of your job or your employment sector as well as request more documentation about your financial situation. They may also, “Decline you if you have borderline qualifications, particularly if you’re employed in a higher-risk industry.”

Deferrals cost. Lenders you have failed to pay because of the virus will be looking for an explanation why, and may be asking for pay stubs, receipts or contracts to prove income has been restored. Don’t assume your mortgage will be renewed automatically with no questions asked, and certainly don’t try to get refinanced or switch lenders while payments are being deferred.

And good luck trying to repair your credit with the bureaus, which are likely to be overwhelmed in the coming months. These are almost-entirely automated systems with meagre human resources to deal with reporting errors or requests. If you’ve ever tangled with them, you know.

In short, pay your bills. Or get out.

 

103 comments ↓

#1 Flop... on 06.14.20 at 3:34 pm

I was watching King 5 news in Washington State this morning and they showed a story that Cascade Mall in near-border Burlington is closing down.

Not enough Canuck Bucks flowing in might be a small part of the equation.

Things have been slowly dying there the last 5 years or so.

I never did visit the mall, but I did used to like visiting the nearby Reebok Outlet to pickup as many pairs of size 14 shoes that they had in the discount bin before they shut down a few years ago.

Puma and Nike are still there I think, but their shoes are too narrow for me.

I need shoes that are more in the shape of snow shoes.

Even with currency conversion a pair of solid Reebok Zig-tech running shoes for $29 usd was worth pulling over for.

Well, that and to get a belly full of some hot Mexican food, after 2 weeks in the bush…

M45BC

#2 Think on 06.14.20 at 3:49 pm

What ever happened to?
Treat others as you would like to be treated.
What if you were the mortgage holder?

#3 Steven Nicolle on 06.14.20 at 3:50 pm

Agree kinda proud when my credit score was 850 this month. Check out my daily story on my blood disease for the past 3 years on my blog for those interested.

http://afterwaiterextraordinaire.blogspot.com

#4 John on 06.14.20 at 3:53 pm

Went to see a condo in North York but it sold while I was viewing it! The semi I went to see in Humber summit in GTA sold for $880K!! These semis used to sell for $790k before pandemic. Real estate prices are crazy and prices going up for anything under $1.5M which is majority. Real estate is on fire.

#5 Polar Bear on 06.14.20 at 4:05 pm

Who cares about credit ratings and automated agencies like Equifax? As Garth says, the credit rating agencies make mistakes and don’t correct them. So don’t play their game. Don’t pay your bills, unless you want to. If you don’t feel like paying a bill even if you have the money, just don’t pay it. Don’t go to work either. Don’t do anything you don’t want to do. Life is short. Enjoy it. Don’t let credit rating agencies have power over you. Who cares if you have bad credit? There’s no reason for anyone to play by any rules they don’t like anymore. We truly are free. We just need to grab it.

#6 conan on 06.14.20 at 4:07 pm

People that can afford to pay , but choose not to because they will be out a few dollars moving money around, are going to get donged.

I am sure it puts a D on your record. Every major financial transaction going forward , the other party is going to see that big D.

Oh oh we are dealing with a big D.

#7 Looking up on 06.14.20 at 4:09 pm

Went to see a condo in North York but it sold while I was viewing it! The semi I went to see in Humber summit in GTA sold for $880K!! These semis used to sell for $790k before pandemic. Real estate prices are crazy and prices going up for anything under $1.5M which is majority. Real estate is on fire.

———————-

Yup looks like Remax wins again. I doubt things will slow down in the fall as some predict.

After a 70% sales drop in April there was bound to be pent-up demand. As predicted here. Don’t get too excited. Unlikely to last. – Garth

#8 joblo on 06.14.20 at 4:09 pm

So here we are:

Julie Nolke
377K subscribers
What would happen if I tried to explain what’s happening now to the January 2020 version of myself?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ms7capx4Cb8

Explaining the Pandemic to my Past Self Part 2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdyDpP2s-og

#9 Linda on 06.14.20 at 4:27 pm

Speaking of bills to come, what are the odds that property taxes are going to increase substantially in the near future? Due to Covid, many municipalities had to shut down services that generated revenue. In addition, not a few businesses both large & small may well not survive the loss of revenue due to the shutdown. Throw in property tax deferrals, Covid related expenditures & last but not least, the anticipated or already occurring drop in property values. All of which will increase the already horrendous hit to municipal budgets. Citizens will naturally desire essential services to continue – things like potable water, sewage treatment, sanitation, emergency services, road repairs, public transit & the like. However, the Covid impact on property taxes means shortfalls will need to be made up. That leave residential tax increases as the only viable alternative to cover the costs, because raising commercial taxes when business is struggling to survive will simply accelerate the closures. That would be making a bad situation worse. Might be wise to start setting aside funds for the expected increase now. Myself, I’m betting the increase will be north of 10%. Hope I’m wrong.

#10 KNOW IT ALL on 06.14.20 at 4:27 pm

CHEAP REAL ESTATE!!

A couple months away.

Can’t wait …. the wealth transfer continues.

#11 Freedom First on 06.14.20 at 4:30 pm

In short, pay your bills, or get out.- Garth
——————————————————————
I freely decides what and who receives my charity, though there is no TD on my forehead as I am not a bank.- Freedom First

#12 Victor V on 06.14.20 at 4:30 pm

#7 Looking up on 06.14.20 at 4:09 pm
Went to see a condo in North York but it sold while I was viewing it! The semi I went to see in Humber summit in GTA sold for $880K!! These semis used to sell for $790k before pandemic. Real estate prices are crazy and prices going up for anything under $1.5M which is majority. Real estate is on fire.

———————-

Yup looks like Remax wins again. I doubt things will slow down in the fall as some predict.

After a 70% sales drop in April there was bound to be pent-up demand. As predicted here. Don’t get too excited. Unlikely to last. – Garth

======
======

May numbers also in the dumps.

“Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,606 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in May 2020. This result was down by 53.7 per cent compared to May 2019. While the number of sales was down substantially on a year-over-year basis due to the continued impact of COVID-19, the decline was less than the 67.1 per cent year-over-year decline reported for April 2020.”

http://www.trreb.ca/files/news_releases/news2020/nr_market_watch_0520.pdf

#13 FreeBird on 06.14.20 at 4:32 pm

And good luck trying to repair your credit with the bureaus, which are likely to be overwhelmed in the coming months. These are almost-entirely automated systems with meagre human resources to deal with reporting errors or requests. If you’ve ever tangled with them, you know.
—————————
Yes. Nightmare. Took 6 mths of playing human tel game of ping pong incl wasted calls to bank ombudsman for then local bank mgr (bball contact of husb) to help fix their bank’s error tying up my credit for months. Not good for self employed. Having detailed every call/contact helped (eventually). Wouldn’t want to do it now. Prior to that debacle parent’s paid mortgage was put on my credit report (same bank/shared family name). Good for me not for parents. Lesson learned. We check credit scores/reports every year. Avail free @Equifax (longer wait.)TransUnion doesn’t seem to offer one time reports.

https://assets.equifax.com/assets/canada/english/creditReportRequestForm.pdf

https://www.consumer.equifax.ca/personal/products/credit-report/

#14 Stone on 06.14.20 at 4:33 pm

Second, with a portfolio of only $300,000, why’s it full of bank stock?

———

Well, that’s easy. This person works for BeeMO and that’s their employee share ownership plan. They don’t have anything else but their BeeMO stock. The BMO mortgage also confirms that. The poor budgeting skills is also a telltale sign.

Garth, you just responded to the [email protected] bank (BeeMO). LMAO ROFL!

#15 the Jaguar on 06.14.20 at 4:36 pm

This doesn’t pass the smell test to me. Unless I missed it there is nothing here about currently being unemployed, which then begs the question “Why exercise mortgage deferral options without financial need “? In no way is this free money.
People who ‘have no other debt’ are almost always people whose ‘raison d’etre’ is all about paying off their mortgage ASAP. With a child of university age my guess is there actually is debt. And house value likely overstated. Why? Because people always overstate their assets unless they are right on top of every financial fact and figure in their lives. Those people also want their mortgage gone asap. All that bank stock sounds like someone in the household might be an employee of that bank.
And as Garth points out, why mess up your credit bureau if you are able to pay (?). Especially since the kid is about to find out what university costs like tuition, etc. are and might need more financial assistance than what’s left over after the new roof. Kid might need financial assistance. Maybe a loan. Maybe dad will have to co-sign. Oh oh…that would be when the explanation for credit bureau blip will be required.
This can only be understood in the context of the phrase ‘Madness of Crowds’. I also don’t like the use of the term ‘bashing’. If the shoe fits then wear it.

#16 Brian Ripley on 06.14.20 at 4:40 pm

“Am I nuts… Probably. For taking an unnecessary risk.” Garth

There are a few other bills that are coming due as well… in the private equity, business loans, credit markets and banking sectors. ie: Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)

The fuse for the 2007-2009 crash into the March 2009 pit of gloom was lit by CDOs (collateralized DEBT obligations) which were based on high risk bundled mortgage loans.

This time around it’s CLOs which are high risk business/commercial LOANS.

Here’s my post with charts and links to further reading from a few days ago:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/cdos-then-clos-now

SNIPPET:

“As global demand wanes, consumers begin to spend less, business revenue streams dry up and investors pivot away from chasing yields and more toward preserving capital. Corporations that took out these covenant-lite loans – that were then securitized into a CLO – then face mounting pressure as their ability to service their debt is compromised. The probability of an onslaught of defaults then becomes considerably higher…

In the event of a downturn, which is further exacerbated by a CLO collapse, anti-risk assets like the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and US Treasuries would likely gain at the expense of cycle-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Cycle-sensitive commodities like oil – and currencies that frequently track its movement like the CANADIAN Dollar, Russian Ruble and Norwegian Krone – may also suffer.”

And speaking of unnecessary risks here is theTyee.ca:

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/06/03/Vaccine-Will-Not-Erase-Pandemic/?utm_source=weekly

“Even a Vaccine Won’t Erase this Pandemic – And other tough, contrarian messages from virologist William Haseltine. We ignore them at our peril, he says.

#17 JSS on 06.14.20 at 4:48 pm

“ Our variable rate on the mortgage is 1.45%”

How did this person end up with such a great rate?!?

#18 DrC on 06.14.20 at 4:52 pm

Garth, there are a couple of things worth mentioning:
1. 49% (I believe) deferred their mortgages, right? Do you think the banks will care so much about that when they have to lend money to 49% of the population who would take it? The banks will just lower their standards or ask for a loan to be insured.
2. There are A LOT of people who deferred their mortgages but could go ahead paying it. A LOT! From my work 2 of the 3 people did that. Some of them did “just in case, to have some more cash”, some other did it to “buy the lows now in the stock market”. None of them did it “because I can’t pay”. None! So I believe the ones who actually can’t pay are very few.

So the future doesn’t look as grim as you think. Yes, some lost their jobs, some other won’t be able to pay their mortgages. But, if somehow there are gonna be a lot of mortgage defaults, the government will do what it does best: lend/give money for free.. because you cannot kill an industry that is 18% of your economy, is highly lobbied, and contains the wealth of 70% of population.

The post did not contain the word ‘default’. – Garth

#19 Captain Uppa on 06.14.20 at 5:09 pm

Are new car payment deferrals also flagged? A lot of the automakers are offering these options like 180 days.

#20 Dave on 06.14.20 at 5:17 pm

Recently we switched auto insurance companies and they needed to make a credit check. The customer service representative said he has never seen such a good credit rating. Why is that important and what could that score be?

#21 BigTop on 06.14.20 at 5:37 pm

#17 JSS on 06.14.20 at 4:48 pm
“ Our variable rate on the mortgage is 1.45%”

How did this person end up with such a great rate?!?

##################
His wife works for BMO. “Employee Pricing”

#22 MDQ on 06.14.20 at 5:40 pm

And there you go folks. This is a typical example of the current situation in the stock market.

Folks with no money buying into the dip. I don’t need to pay my debt because my return is better somewhere else is the motto… until it doesn’t work.

Coming the fall, if his beemo investment is underwater what is he going to do?

#23 simon on 06.14.20 at 5:41 pm

#4 John on 06.14.20 at 3:53 pm
Went to see a condo in North York but it sold while I was viewing it! The semi I went to see in Humber summit in GTA sold for $880K!! These semis used to sell for $790k before pandemic. Real estate prices are crazy and prices going up for anything under $1.5M which is majority. Real estate is on fire.
…………………………………..

And what are you going to buy with money that you don’t
have?
Answer – Nothing!

So much for real estate prices going up.

#24 FreeBird on 06.14.20 at 5:42 pm

Good reminder: “The deferral is an agreement between you and your lender. Typically, the agreement indicates that you and your lender have agreed to pause or suspend your mortgage payments for a certain amount of time… After the agreement ends, your mortgage payments return to normal and the missed payments — including principal and accumulated interest – repaid.” -CMHC

Banks allowed extended deferral but contractual agmt to pay principal + interest on loan still in place and per agreed pyt sched. Seems like banks will basically lose cash flow and Garth is saying/warning standards for credit will be increased/tightened. Just pay if you can.

#25 HANDS UP, DON'T SHOOT!! on 06.14.20 at 6:03 pm

Pay your Bills or GET OUT!!

Can we come live with you Garth?

#26 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 06.14.20 at 6:05 pm

Go back to the GTA, park your stupid SUV, lock your door…

AND DON’T COME BACK!!

#27 Piano_Man87 on 06.14.20 at 6:15 pm

I really thought it was common sense to not take on debt, or more debt, unless you have to. I guess not.

#28 islander on 06.14.20 at 6:15 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-the-pandemic-has-exposed-the-precarious-economic-situation-of-many/

Some interesting and troubling information regarding the financial reality for/of many Canadians – brought to you by:

Chaviva Hosek ( former director of policy and research for prime minister Jean Chrétien)

Jonathan Weisstub ( former senior policy adviser to prime minister Paul Martin and is a co-founder of Common Wealth)

Ed Waitzer (current professor at Osgoode Hall Law School and the Schulich School of Business)

“The drop in stable full-time jobs has stripped millions of workers of employment-based retirement plans, insurance against common life risks (job loss, illness or disability) and even just a steady paycheque.”

“Every year, $2-billion in existing federal benefits is left on the table by people who need them most. Too many people either don’t know they’re eligible or encounter language, literacy, digital or other barriers that prevent them from obtaining this much-needed income.”

“Between 10 per cent and 12 per cent of Canadian adults don’t file taxes; that cuts low-income individuals out of more than $1.7-billion a year in existing benefits, such as the Canada Child Benefit and GST rebates, that can give them greater economic control over their lives.”

#29 AGuyInVancouver on 06.14.20 at 6:20 pm

The next three months will tell but realistically both major parties have shown a willingness to let the housing bubble expand with no consequences to puchasers. As long as that willingness is shown banks won’t foreclose and markets won’t correct.

#30 cmj on 06.14.20 at 6:25 pm

Nothing is ever free and playing a money game can come back to bite you. I rent out my basement suite and have had good success by using a property management company to find a tenant. I will definitely want the history of whoever is my next tenant to see if they deferred their mortgage without just cause or didn’t pay their rent or played whatever games because the Tenancy Board was closed during the pandemic.
Overall, most tenants and landlords are reasonable people. Messing with your integrity isn’t worth it. I say this for both sides.

#31 I’m stupid on 06.14.20 at 6:31 pm

Question for you Garth. I have 3.5 years remaining on my mortgage term 2.75 fixed rate. I haven’t missed a single payment and have a credit score at 875 (I’ve been trying to get it to perfect 900 but don’t know what else I can do). My mortgage is 300k about 1 year gross salary.

Would trying to negotiate a better rate be possible given that there seems to be a butt load of people not paying? The break fee is 3 months interest on the loan. Or is it worth breaking the mortgage and getting another 5 year fixed at less than 2%?

#32 TW on 06.14.20 at 6:33 pm

#20

Dave … high is 850 or better , better than 75% of the Canadian pop according to transunion… the scale tops out at 900.

#33 Barely Millenial on 06.14.20 at 6:36 pm

When the opportunity to defer mortgages came up, I jumped at it.
I am a landlord, with five properties including my principal residence.
I put all five mortgages on hold.
Since then, I have refinanced one mortgage with a new institution, restarted all my payments, and have closed on the new house purchase with mortgage approved.

My credit is fine, I held onto $20,000 in payments for a bit of extra security and bought a good RE deal.

I regret nothing

#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.14.20 at 6:54 pm

#20 Dave on 06.14.20 at 5:17 pm
Recently we switched auto insurance companies and they needed to make a credit check. The customer service representative said he has never seen such a good credit rating. Why is that important and what could that score be?
—————–
Why didn’t you ask the customer service representative?
He probably tells that every customer.
Old salesmen trick.

#35 Rick on 06.14.20 at 6:54 pm

“Covid proved this.”

Wrong! The blood sucking parasites, called politicians caused this!

Nuff Said!

#36 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.14.20 at 7:05 pm

Garth is right.
Never bet against the banks and the money lenders.
They are the second oldest profession.
They are nice right now. But sooner or later, they’ll sent in the piper.

#37 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.14.20 at 7:15 pm

#32 Barely Millenial on 06.14.20 at 6:36 pm
When the opportunity to defer mortgages came up, I jumped at it.
I am a landlord, with five properties including my principal residence.
I put all five mortgages on hold.
Since then, I have refinanced one mortgage with a new institution, restarted all my payments, and have closed on the new house purchase with mortgage approved.

My credit is fine, I held onto $20,000 in payments for a bit of extra security and bought a good RE deal.

I regret nothing
—————–
Wow,
You’re barely 20 years old and have already 5 anchors weighing you down.
There’s no such thing as a good RE deal right now.
Unless you are a Realtor.

#38 Stan Brooks on 06.14.20 at 7:23 pm

#18 DrC on 06.14.20 at 4:52 pm

But, if somehow there are gonna be a lot of mortgage defaults, the government will do what it does best: lend/give money for free.. because you cannot kill an industry that is 18% of your economy, is highly lobbied, and contains the wealth of 70% of population.

Quick summary of what you stated:

All of the ‘economy’ is credit driven media and government incentivized real estate madness constructed for the profit of the banks and the real estate mafia and cartels.

It ‘can not be allowed to fail’ because for all practical intends and purposes it is everything left in this place. In terms of ‘economy’ and ‘wealth’.

Substandard cardboard particle homes and noisy glass condos at astronomical prices, with ever increasing property taxes, high maintenance fees, in the middle of f…ng nowhere with bad weather, crowded cities with no infrastructure and no jobs, increasing crime and sh..ty food.

The more ‘money’ (that we don’t have) we spend on credit, the richer we are.

I totally agree.

#39 Billy Bob on 06.14.20 at 7:25 pm

What a great weekend we just had up north at our cottage!

We invited a bunch of friends to come up. Haven’t seen them in months. Too long.

They stopped at the IGA in town and picked up steaks for the BBQ. TEN nice steaks! One for each of us. The butcher was happy to see us. Plenty of wine and beer too. We even had a bonfire beside the BBQ.

It’s good to be back up there enjoying a gathering of friends.

Felt nearly NORMAL!

Can’t WAIT for next weekend!

SUMMER!

#40 NoOneOfConsequence on 06.14.20 at 7:25 pm

I am a small contract programmer, and I occasionally set up small companies (<50 employees) with equifax reporting systems.

Equifax reporting is 100% automated AND you are NOT allowed to "cherry pick" data according to the terms of the Equifax agreement.

Deferrals are indeed reported as deferrals. Missed payment deadlines stack up. So if you haven't paid your bills in 90 days – it goes to Equifax that you have a 90 day delinquent account.

Sorry folks – no way out of this. The reporting is the reporting. It is automated and relentless. Unless companies are breaching the signed agreement and modifying the reporting systems, your lack of meeting payment obligations will indeed be reflected on your credit scores.

As an aside to this, if you are a person who wasn't impacted by Covid and didn't need the "emergency relief" and you are getting it just because you can…you are definitely in "douche baggy" territory and part of the problem with today's society.

To those of you doing this, stop being a self-absorbed ass ok? Leave our emergency systems unburdened so they might assist those in an emergency more effectively.

#41 Nonplused on 06.14.20 at 7:27 pm

Not stated in today’s story is whether the folks are still employed or on CERB or what. The banks aren’t offering deferrals to folks whose income has not been impacted so just deciding not to pay probably won’t be seen too kindly unless there are reasons. The deferrals are meant to help people in distress, not to finance a new roof. That’s what a HELOC is for.

But I suppose as the “Keep Your Rent” crowd has shown, there isn’t much respect for the law in the land anymore. Sigh. The end of civilization is probably at hand. Who knew it would come about because people would stop paying their debts and burn down their own cities? The Russians and the Chinese are probably loving it.

#42 Ace Goodheart on 06.14.20 at 7:30 pm

Old folks seem to be afraid of death. Young folks are not. This virus kills mostly the old and the sick. And the world powers are for the most part a geriatric- aucracy.

Makes you wonder- when we go and fight a war somewhere, the body count is collateral damage. A necessary part of freedom.

Count the bodies in any major 20th century war. COVID is nowhere as near deadly and never will be.

117,000 people dead of COVID in the USA so far. More people die each year in the USA by accidentally being shot (many accidentally shoot themselves).

If people were watching us from outer space they would think we are nuts. All hiding in our houses.

The new normal will kill us long before COVID does. Our kids are going to be psychologically damaged this fall when they return to social distanced classrooms with friendship being outlawed and plexiglass being their new prison. No sports. Socially distanced recess. Life in a plastic box.

And kids don’t even get the virus (but their grandparents do).

Dinosaurs lasted 185 million years to our 2 million. Doubtful we will survive the next 183 million to match their record. I doubt we will be here 500,000 years from now even.

Oh and Canada, your mother called. Someone says they locked you up, stole all your money and threw you under the bus.

#43 Flop... on 06.14.20 at 7:33 pm

Seen some people write on here recently that travel is going to be so expensive when they pull down the gates.

My only previous experience in North America to anything like this current situation was during and after the global financial crisis.

People weren’t traveling much and my wife and I decided to stay in some nicer hotels that we normally wouldn’t justify the price-tag to premium for.

I’d wanted to go to Portland, but not really for Spring Break.

Getting a room for $75 bucks a night at the Marriott Downtown soon took care of that.

A trip to Hawaii a little after was heavily discounted, thought I would go all the time, but haven’t been back since.

No one with a brain goes to St Louis for Spring Break but a screamer of a deal at the Crowne Plaza Downtown ensured I showed my lack of intelligence.

People were friendly and I did not get shot, so I recorded it as a win.

The following few years 2010-2015 provided some good deals but recently I have had to get creative to keep to cost down.

What’s going to happen now?

Will the increase in airfare cancel out the hotel discounts?

Going to Portland to get the deal we took the train, but I don’t think that mattered as airlines had settled down a lot since 9/11.

I was willing to get on a plane for Spring Break this year but my wife’s employer was already talking quarantine before we got on the plane, and about halfway through the planned trip, Sir Prance-a-lot told everyone to come home and stay home.

I like to do what I want, when I want, and won’t listen to hypocrites.

Deaf and Dumb, that’s me…

M45BC

#44 Anne on 06.14.20 at 7:34 pm

Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 06.14.20 at 6:05 pm
Go back to the GTA, park your stupid SUV, lock your door…

AND DON’T COME BACK!!
———
It is cottagers that pay school taxes for small towns and keep the economy going by attending the local stores and restaurants. Any cottager going up these days are picking up food from their big city and avoiding the small business. They are keeping their social distances. As a cottager, if I got sick,I would drive back to the big city’s better equipped hospitals rather than put up with a substandard local facility.
I find your comments hostile and not comprehending that we pay your taxes and give you a better lifestyle than you would have otherwise.

#45 Nonplused on 06.14.20 at 7:40 pm

#19 Captain Uppa on 06.14.20 at 5:09 pm
Are new car payment deferrals also flagged? A lot of the automakers are offering these options like 180 days.

———————

You are not technically in arrears if your car loan came with a 180 day “do not pay” clause. It is a scheme to get cars out the door. Sort of like when you buy furniture at The Brick you don’t have to pay for a year. But if you don’t pay off the full amount on day 365 then they hit you with a 20% interest charge. It is a marketing gimmick but you aren’t technically in default until you start missing payments that are described in the loan documents.

#46 Nonplused on 06.14.20 at 7:46 pm

#42 Ace Goodheart on 06.14.20 at 7:30 pm

“117,000 people dead of COVID in the USA so far. More people die each year in the USA by accidentally being shot (many accidentally shoot themselves).”

Fact check:

“In 2017, gun deaths reached their highest level since 1968 with 39,773 deaths by firearm, of which 23,854 were by suicide and 14,542 were homicides. The rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 people rose from 10.3 per 100,000 in 1999 to 12 per 100,000 in 2017, with 109 people dying per day.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States#:~:text=In%202017%2C%20gun%20deaths%20reached,109%20people%20dying%20per%20day.

Google. Use it.

#47 OK, Karen on 06.14.20 at 7:49 pm

#26 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 06.14.20 at 6:05 pm
Go back to the GTA, park your stupid SUV, lock your door…

AND DON’T COME BACK!!

————————-

Even the provincial and national parks are open again. Inter-provincial travel is allowed. Nobody is going to listen to you, Karen.

#48 Barely Millenial on 06.14.20 at 7:53 pm

#32 Barely Millenial on 06.14.20 at 6:36 pm
When the opportunity to defer mortgages came up, I jumped at it.
I am a landlord, with five properties including my principal residence.
I put all five mortgages on hold.
Since then, I have refinanced one mortgage with a new institution, restarted all my payments, and have closed on the new house purchase with mortgage approved.

My credit is fine, I held onto $20,000 in payments for a bit of extra security and bought a good RE deal.

I regret nothing
—————–
Wow,
You’re barely 20 years old and have already 5 anchors weighing you down.
There’s no such thing as a good RE deal right now.
Unless you are a Realtor.

****

Sorry my name was misleading. I am 36, not 20.

I do not consider my properties (or mortgages) as anchors, but as motors propelling my investment portfolio.

I used leverage to purchase cashflowing, appreciating assets.

I know I am in the wrong comments section to get applause, but wanted to share my experience as it relates to the article.

#49 jimbob on 06.14.20 at 8:07 pm

#32 barely millenial, 5 properties that cashflow? must be outside the gta

#50 The Woosh on 06.14.20 at 8:26 pm

#18 DrC

The post did not contain the word ‘default’. – Garth
————————————————

Garth, are you nitpicking at a word just because the rest of his comment rings true?

Actually the rest was factually incorrect and baseless. So only the false conclusion merited a reference. – Garth

#51 Cto on 06.14.20 at 8:26 pm

ah Garth,…so innocent!… You keep forgetting this is Canada, the wonderful land of moral Hazzard! Debt forgiveness is king in these parts, especially mortgage debt. I’m sure the socialists once again will make a deal the banks can’t refuse to bail out the recless all at the expense of the poor prudent fools.

#52 Canuck on 06.14.20 at 8:30 pm

Nonplused on 06.14.20 at 7:46 pm

#42 Ace Goodheart on 06.14.20 at 7:30 pm

“117,000 people dead of COVID in the USA so far. More people die each year in the USA by accidentally being shot (many accidentally shoot themselves).”

Fact check:

“In 2017, gun deaths reached their highest level since 1968 with 39,773 deaths by firearm, of which 23,854 were by suicide and 14,542 were homicides. The rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 people rose from 10.3 per 100,000 in 1999 to 12 per 100,000 in 2017, with 109 people dying per day.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States#:~:text=In%202017%2C%20gun%20deaths%20reached,109%20people%20dying%20per%20day.

Google. Use it.
_____________________________________________

Take your own advice. Up until June 11th, the number of people who died from a COVID related death is 7,014.
Check out the CDC for yourself.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex

Dr. Ben Carson schooled Chris Wallace earlier today by saying, “we can either run and hide from COVID19 or learn how to live with it, as we do with other viruses”

#53 Canuck on 06.14.20 at 8:42 pm

As someone who worked for one of the big 6 in dealer finance, the arm of the bank that does auto, RV, Marine and powersports financing, I can tell you from experience working loans that missed mortgage payments are an absolute deal breaker.

Credit bureaus use the information provided by your creditors. If your bank doesn’t report deferred mortgage payments, you have nothing to worry about. If they do… and I expect that they do, you can kiss your wonderful credit score goodbye.

#54 Barely Millenial on 06.14.20 at 8:42 pm

49 jimbob on 06.14.20 at 8:07 pm
#32 barely millenial, 5 properties that cashflow? must be outside the gta

2 Hamilton (soon to be 3), 2 Etobicoke, 1 Guelph

GTA doesn’t cashflow out of the box, but many markets within 1 hour will.

#55 Wrk.dover on 06.14.20 at 8:45 pm

#43 Flop… on 06.14.20 at 7:33 pm
Seen some people write on here recently that travel is going to be so expensive when they pull down the gates.

———————————

Air Transat direct Halifax-Jamaica February listings came on line today discounted, except Sandals is uppa.

#56 DM in C on 06.14.20 at 8:49 pm

Was chatting with a family member in HRM this morning — her sister is a realtor — there’s a HUGE run on housing in Halifax/Dartmouth right now. Houses being seen before listing, bidding wars. WTF is going on? Getting out before things get bad? Or is everyone moving back home?

With three more years of Jason Kenney, and WFH seeming to be permanent, we’re definitely considering it.

#57 Drinking on 06.14.20 at 9:06 pm

The person who wrote to you sounds like a Troll!

Many could careless what Banks or especially credit unions think of them; especially those that carry a balance on a credit card charging upwards to 30% interests; if I was in that situation I would stop paying as well with today’s low interest rates; it is beyond insulting, just greed!

Cash is King!

#58 TurnerNation on 06.14.20 at 9:42 pm

1. Was this posted? Nationalization here we come Comrade.

https://www.kitchenertoday.com/national-news/liberals-look-at-buying-distressed-buildings-to-save-stock-of-affordable-housing-2433953
“It’s why the federal government is now considering purchasing those assets as part of the next phase of the government’s response to the pandemic.”

2. (The full goals of “Covid” are here by the way, this Globalist think tank. Each time you hear “Covid” think: New World Order. #Staysane

https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1G0X000006O6EHUA0?tab=publications

3. The attack on the food supply continues.
Never forget that “”Distancing” is the greatest economic and social weapon ever unleashed.

https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/norfolk-county-farmer-and-health-unit-battle-over-bunkhouse-capacity-1.4983200

Brett Schuyler of Schuyler Farms Ltd. says he’s lost time, money, and workers due to the three-person limit, so he filed an appeal to the requirement.

On Friday, the capacity limit was scrapped by the Health Services Appeal and Review Board.

“This whole thing’s been a lot of stress on the farm,” said Schuyler. ‘“We went through this process, and I’d really like to focus on how can we work together to further this community health and further food production. That’s what we want to do.”

The board called the three-person maximum arbitrary and required the specific rule to be deleted.

#59 DrC on 06.14.20 at 9:51 pm

#38 Stan Brooks
Yes exactly!

You’re right.. forgot to mention the increasing RE prices bring more taxes as well.

As well as the following:

The stock market isn’t growing objectively either. Just because FED buys securities like crazy (spends 2.6 billions a day). Or do you want to say that losing jobs and closing everything down makes the economy grow? How a shrinking economy brings the market back close to its pre-pandemic levels?

Let’s not forget: during the last crisis the FED loaned to the banks lots of money so they could loan them to the common folks. The FED was paying the banks for this loans (yes, FED gave the money and was paying for it). The banks however kept the money and were getting paid by the FED as well. Safest money making scheme ever.

Housing is still scarce and the ones on the sidelines waiting for “sane prices” lose patience and dip in. After all everything is overpriced now. How is this not making the housing more safe than the stock market? At least you don’t see volatility.

Now imagine: The central banks want to increase the velocity of money (since this is one of the most important indicators). The ‘official’ inflation is not at the 2%. They will start giving money (to commercial banks) for super cheap loans… and wait little and you’ll see the banks start paying the borrowers. Do you really think the credit rating will suffer or the banks will give a damn about the people who deferred their mortgages? Don’t think so!

#60 baloney Sandwitch on 06.14.20 at 9:52 pm

The guy should sell his stocks, payoff his mortgage and then buy a balanced portfolio using his line of credit. Not only do you get to deduct your interest but a big mortgage stressor is gone. I used this technique all my working life. The $ slowly but surely add up.

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.14.20 at 9:56 pm

#49 jimbob on 06.14.20 at 8:07 pm
#32 barely millenial, 5 properties that cashflow? must be outside the gta
—————–
Positive cash-flow plus appreciation?
Where in Canada?

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.14.20 at 10:08 pm

#51 Cto on 06.14.20 at 8:26 pm
ah Garth,…so innocent!… You keep forgetting this is Canada, the wonderful land of moral Hazzard! Debt forgiveness is king in these parts, especially mortgage debt. I’m sure the socialists once again will make a deal the banks can’t refuse to bail out the recless all at the expense of the poor prudent fools.
———–
You’ve got the wrong country, my friend.
It was the US that was the champion of moral haz(z)ard in 2008.
Canadian banks were solid.

#63 Long-Time Lurker on 06.14.20 at 10:20 pm

Kim Jong-Un might be dead. His sister is issuing official statements. She never did this before. There’s no reason why Kim Jong-Un wouldn’t do this himself.

Also, there are reports of a big outbreak of Wuhan-400 in Beijing.

#64 Investx on 06.14.20 at 10:21 pm

“And good luck trying to repair your credit with the bureaus, which are likely to be overwhelmed in the coming months.”

So true. Even in normal times, they can be a nightmare to work with.

#65 AisA on 06.14.20 at 10:34 pm

OK, I got to the second paragraph and skipped the posted comments when I started rubbing my vulture wings together.

Now to go back and recap to see if my natural instict was somehow off.

#66 I’m just sayin on 06.14.20 at 10:37 pm

I’ve noticed an interesting phenomenon. Realtors say real estate is the best investment and stocks blow. Financial planners say the stock market is the best investment and real estate blows.

Wierd….

And this blog has always said to live a balanced life. – Garth

#67 Canuck on 06.14.20 at 11:12 pm

#45 Nonplused on 06.14.20 at 7:40 pm

#19 Captain Uppa on 06.14.20 at 5:09 pm
Are new car payment deferrals also flagged? A lot of the automakers are offering these options like 180 days.

———————

You are not technically in arrears if your car loan came with a 180 day “do not pay” clause. It is a scheme to get cars out the door. Sort of like when you buy furniture at The Brick you don’t have to pay for a year. But if you don’t pay off the full amount on day 365 then they hit you with a 20% interest charge. It is a marketing gimmick but you aren’t technically in default until you start missing payments that are described in the loan documents.
_____________________________________________

That’s at the beginning of a loan and the payments include interest that was missed during the deferral. Doesn’t apply in the middle of a loan

In the case of what you call gimmicks by places like the Brick, the retailer actually buys down the rate or pays the interest during the interest free period. When you check out the gross mark up of furniture, you’ll see tey can afford to pay it.

No one gets a free ride… EVER.

#68 Ace Goodheart on 06.14.20 at 11:25 pm

RE: #4 John on 06.14.20 at 3:53 pm

The semi I went to see in Humber summit in GTA sold for $880K!! These semis used to sell for $790k before pandemic. Real estate prices are crazy and prices going up for anything under $1.5M which is majority. Real estate is on fire.

////////////////////////////////

That is the exact same thing that I have noticed.

Anything between about a million and just over a million three, it is like watching piranhas feed. Absolutely vicious. You can see the steam and foam rising over the open house as the newly weds battle it out for bidding war supremacy.

Meanwhile up the street at the four bedroom, 1.6 million dollar family estate, there is nobody there.

While you couldn’t fit two people into the cramped, damp, sloping floored living room/dining room/former rooming house common bedroom at the 1.3 million dollar semi, due to the mass of potential bidders standing on the probably not very safe rotten old floorboards, you could have a picnic on the lawn of the larger house, and not see a single person.

There is this strange, $250,000 wall that house buyers can’t seem to get past. It is like watching Chuck Yeager try to break through the sound barrier.

Anything above about 1.3 mil or so, and there are no buyers.

So if you are selling a semi, you list at a million, or just below, and then watch as it goes for the predictable 1.3 million.

If you have a four bedroom detached, it doesn’t matter what you list it at. 1.5, 1.6, 1.7 it is all the same. Weeks go past. You get a conditional bid, and that is it. If you are lucky.

Strange new world.

#69 will on 06.15.20 at 12:04 am

am i nuts?

no, you just have no nuts.

i can’t stand this kind of thing. maybe the key phrase here is manup. that is to say Man Up. And pay. you are suckling off the teat of low rates. get off it man. get off the teat.

there are two teats going on here. well maybe three. let’s talk about two and carry the metaphor.

the mortgage deferral is the mother who is unwilling to cut you off even though you give no respect though you have the means. she’s wrong.

the dividend is what the mother owes you and wants to give you, even though you sound like you need a thorough thrashing.

as Garth says, pay your bills, or get out. and i would add stop your whining. it’s very simple. figure out a way to pay your bills and then pay them. and stop thinking about which teat is more satisfying.

#70 Tim123 on 06.15.20 at 1:25 am

I think a lot of people got caught over leveraged on real estate because it was a winning strategy for as long as anyone can remember. Now it may become a losing strategy later in the year, especially with so many people unemployed. I think the reason why people bought real estate even if they could not afford it because most people believe that narrative that the real estate industry pushes is that real estate can never go down. That is not true but most people do not have a strong background in economics and business so as far as they know, real estate only goes up.
I think normal people should use individual stocks to supplement their portfolios if the have a decent understanding of balance sheets, economics and a decent understanding of business. The advent of partial shares is coming to Canada at some point as it is already available at Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade in the US. Individual stocks were excellent for me when I first started investing but I had quite a bit of knowledge about stocks at that time. I do get your point that most people do not have the financial expertise to do it successfully.
As for the person who took a break from his mortgage, I would not have done it. He can always sell his bank stocks to get the cash he needs and if he wants to be brave he can change his account to a margin account and borrow money from his broker and write off the interest.

#71 SoggyShorts on 06.15.20 at 1:32 am

#31 I’m stupid on 06.14.20 at 6:31 pm
Question for you Garth. I have 3.5 years remaining on my mortgage term 2.75 fixed rate. I haven’t missed a single payment and have a credit score at 875 (I’ve been trying to get it to perfect 900 but don’t know what else I can do). My mortgage is 300k about 1 year gross salary.

Would trying to negotiate a better rate be possible given that there seems to be a butt load of people not paying? The break fee is 3 months interest on the loan. Or is it worth breaking the mortgage and getting another 5 year fixed at less than 2%?
**************************
That shouldn’t be too hard to figure out if you know all the other information(how big the monthly payments are etc. I imagine you have an amortization chart of how much from each payment goes towards interest?

With what you’ve provided the napkin math is
Current interest: 2.75%
Term 3.5y
Mortgage 300,000
Potential interest rate “under 2%” lets say 2%
———-
2.75-2 = 0.75% change
0.75%* $300,000 * 3.5 = $7,875 reduced interest over 3.5 years by dropping down to 2% interest by breaking and switching.

The penalty is 3mo interest (1/4 of a year)
300,000*2.75*0.25 = $2,062.50

So, it looks to me like switching from 2.75% to 2% will save you over five grand even after the penalty.

Double-check using your actual data, but it seems like its the right play to me.
Unless… As per today’s topic:

Does breaking and remaking a mortgage count as a black mark on your credit rating as well as incurring a cash penalty?

#72 Zane Craven on 06.15.20 at 2:07 am

Linda. #9. Very insightful observation. Your local government will likely choose the path of least resistance and attempt to recover expenses from the tax payers instead of rationing expenses and cuts.

Look what Nenshi did in Calgary when tax revenues from dark towers disappeared . He tried to keep spending on graft and perks by “relocating” lost downtown commercial taxes on to suburban residents. That fight is ongoing.

#73 Nonplused on 06.15.20 at 3:36 am

#52 Canuck on 06.14.20 at 8:30 pm

Dude, I was fact checking gun deaths vs. official numbers for covid, and if I fact check official numbers for covid via Google I get this:

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+covid+deaths+to+date&rlz=1C1RUCY_enCA719CA719&oq=US+covid+deaths+to+&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l7.11217j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

117,000 so far. Google. Use it.

#74 Headhunter on 06.15.20 at 7:13 am

wow really tough crowd tonight.

Who gives a rats ass about a credit score? Gov’t shut down the economy, picked winners and losers who could ply their trade and who cant. People dont know if they will ever get back to work in the same job..

People sweating cause they may lose the 3rd gen family business. How can many re-open with 50% capacity BS distancing rules?

Gov’t took away my life and way to earn a living.

“In short, pay your bills. Or get out.” little harsh kind sir

When they come for the monied class, WHICH THEY WILL happens in all revolutions hopefully there is someone left half sane to speak on our behalf. END RANT

#75 Tater on 06.15.20 at 7:58 am

#42 Ace Goodheart on 06.14.20 at 7:30 pm
Old folks seem to be afraid of death. Young folks are not. This virus kills mostly the old and the sick. And the world powers are for the most part a geriatric- aucracy.

Makes you wonder- when we go and fight a war somewhere, the body count is collateral damage. A necessary part of freedom.

Count the bodies in any major 20th century war. COVID is nowhere as near deadly and never will be.
—————————————————-

USA Covid Fatalities: 117k
USA WW1 Fatalities: 116k

Thanks for playing Ace.

#76 Dharma Bum on 06.15.20 at 9:07 am

I just spent 3 days in Ottawa.
It opened up on Friday.
Rideau Mall – OPEN.
People in the streets with tons of retail shopping bags.
It was like Christmas in June.
Bars – OPEN.
Relaxed with a pint on the patio with a ton of other people (all YOUNG people – I was the lone grandpa looking guy in the crowd). Everyone smiling, laughing, socializing in the beautiful late spring weather.
COVID is soooooooooo OVER.
Like last year’s snow.

#77 Do we have all the facts on 06.15.20 at 9:14 am

Pools of mortgages insured by the Government of Canada are used by financial institutions to create mortgage backed securities(MBS). When each MBS is offered to investors the rate of return is based on the cash flow generated by the pool of mortgages within the MBS.

MBS are being purchased from financial institutions by the Canada Housing Trust on behalf of the Government of Canada.

The Canada Housing Trust uses the MBS as security to create and sell Canada Mortgage Bonds (CMB) to a wide range of investors including the Bank of Canada.

The sale of CMB injects liquidity into the marketplace and in theory the fact that the rate of return offered by a CMB is guaranteed by the Government of Canada makes the bonds attractive to a wide range of investors.

What happens if tens of thousands of mortgagors decide to refinance their insured mortgages to take advantage of a significantly lower interest rate. Their mortgage has been pooled within a MBS that has been purchased by the Canada Housing Trust and used as security for a CMB.

When the cash flow generated by a pool of insured mortgages within a MBS is substantially reduced through the renegotiation of mortgage terms the ability of the Canada Housing Trust to cover payments to investors holding CMB will be affected.

Does the Canada Housing Trust as the legal owner of a MBS have any say in the decision to renegotiate terms of mortgages pooled within each MBS? Deferral of mortgage payments for six months creates a short term reduction in cash flow within a MBS. As I see the future unfolding the next logical step to avoid the possibility of default would be to renegotiate the terms of mortgages in distress.

The general impression is that the financial institution that issued the original mortgages can renegotiate terms in accordance with the initial contract. It would appear that the cash generated from a three month penalty will be significantly lower than the future income generated under the initial terms of mortgage issued with an interest rate of 2.5% per annum or higher.

How is any shortfall in future revenue generated by mortgages held within a MBS to be recovered by the Government of Canada?

At what point does the renegotiation of mortgages to avoid the possibility of default pose problem to the Government of Canada?

There would appear to be quite a few mortgages that might require some form of assistance by the end of 2020.

I can’t help feeling that the Government of Canada, as the party that guaranteed the rate of return on each CMB, will cover the full cost of any assistance that might be offered to mortgage holders in the future.

Please tell me that future taxpayers have nothin to worry about.

#78 Job#1 on 06.15.20 at 9:32 am

#75 Tater

While the absolute numbers you state are correct, perhaps war deaths as a percentage of 1918 US population of 103,208,000 would be a more meaningful statistic.

#79 Gruff403 on 06.15.20 at 9:34 am

“since they own more debt than equity,” best line in post for me.
Debt is only a major problem when you cannot service it from your cash flow. Therefore cash flow security is most important. You can carry debt forever as long as the cash flow is adequate and secure. If you won a lottery of $300K and your mortgage was $300 K would you pay off mortgage or invest your new found equity? In a low interest rate environment like this you are further ahead investing.
Paying your debt obligations matters.

#80 Lambchop on 06.15.20 at 9:35 am

#75 Tater on 06.15.20 at 7:58 am
#42 Ace Goodheart on 06.14.20 at 7:30 pm
Old folks seem to be afraid of death. Young folks are not. This virus kills mostly the old and the sick. And the world powers are for the most part a geriatric- aucracy.

Makes you wonder- when we go and fight a war somewhere, the body count is collateral damage. A necessary part of freedom.

Count the bodies in any major 20th century war. COVID is nowhere as near deadly and never will be.
—————————————————-

USA Covid Fatalities: 117k
USA WW1 Fatalities: 116k

Thanks for playing Ace.

________________

Tater, not an accurate comparison.
To be accurate, these numbers must be expressed as a percentage of population at the time of death count.
US population has increased roughly 3 times since WW1, so approx. triple amount of deaths from the war as compared to covid.

#81 N on 06.15.20 at 9:44 am

Pension Funds getting into riskier areas for boosting returns… Calpers is to move deeper into private equity and private debt……..
https://www.ft.com/content/2a6ec6aa-492e-4e7d-85f8-83789a2bc481
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-15/calpers-cio-eyes-more-private-equity-leverage-to-boost-returns?sref=nNOdD5kh

#82 YVR Expat on 06.15.20 at 9:50 am

#26 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 06.14.20 at 6:05 pm
Go back to the GTA, park your stupid SUV, lock your door…

AND DON’T COME BACK!!
**********************

Come to Cottage Country, Avoid Corona-virus and Save Lives!!

Anyone thinking about taking an extra long weekend for Canada Day this year? July 1 falls on a Wednesday, why not head to Cottage Country and stay until Sunday before heading back to the GTA? That way you can relax, while stimulating the economy. I know I’ll be heading out there – and working from my deck for the rest of the summer!

Long Live Cottage Country

#83 TurnerNation on 06.15.20 at 10:19 am

Keep an eye on what’s left of your travel rights. That’s the real goal of this Agenda unfolding worldwide. Packed into “Smart cities” – allowed travel only in your little ‘bubble’. That’s the training we are getting now.
Of course our Elite Rulers travel on private jets and mega yachts, unfettered.
If a group of 6-10 wish to travel consider renting a private jet yourself – even up to 15 people – the costs are reasonable, spread out. Couple thousand each. Room to dicker in these times too.

“Distancing” is an economic tool being used to kill Demand. Supply – via credit – is still robust. Hence, “Plan”-demic. The FED confirmed low interest rates (supply).

Welcome to Comrade Airlines, the New System medical martial law:

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that temperature checks, bigger lines, fewer meals, no alcohol and, ultimately, higher prices. A Canadian Press dispatch to The Globe says that air travel — a headache at the best of times — is set to become even more uncomfortable in the post-COVID-19 world as increased in-flight personal space is offset by longer waits, higher airfares and more sterile environments. Carriers, whose fleets have largely been grounded since mid-March amid global travel restrictions and extremely low demand for travel, now face the dilemma of generating enough revenue to stay afloat. In an effort to maintain physical distancing, Air Canada and WestJet block the sale of immediately adjacent seats in economy class and throughout the entire plane, respectively. “The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that temperature checks, bigger lines, fewer meals, no alcohol and, ultimately, higher prices. A Canadian Press dispatch to The Globe says that air travel — a headache at the best of times — is set to become even more uncomfortable in the post-COVID-19 world as increased in-flight personal space is offset by longer waits, higher airfares and more sterile environments. Carriers, whose fleets have largely been grounded since mid-March amid global travel restrictions and extremely low demand for travel, now face the dilemma of generating enough revenue to stay afloat. In an effort to maintain physical distancing, Air Canada and WestJet block the sale of immediately adjacent seats in economy class and throughout the entire plane, respectively. ”

Pay attention to the last line, the CEO’s comment. Be aware that many private and public pension funds have ownership in this type of infrastructure:

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that at Calgary International Airport, there are are more airport staff than passengers. The Globe’s Kelly Cryderman writes that the airy concourse, opened less than four years ago to accommodate growing throngs of passenger traffic, is now almost completely devoid of people. This Canadian airport terminal in June, 2020, is a quiet, monotonous world of constant cleaning, thermal camera temperature scans and muffled conversations through masks. Besides the worry of inbound COVID-19 infections, there is the uncertainty about how airports and related sectors will survive a drawn-out pandemic slump that could go on for years. “It would be cheaper to close the airport now than to continue running it,” said Bob Sartor, chief executive officer of the Calgary Airport Authority. “

#84 Tater on 06.15.20 at 10:25 am

#80 Lambchop on 06.15.20 at 9:35 am
#75 Tater on 06.15.20 at 7:58 am
#42 Ace Goodheart on 06.14.20 at 7:30 pm
Old folks seem to be afraid of death. Young folks are not. This virus kills mostly the old and the sick. And the world powers are for the most part a geriatric- aucracy.

Makes you wonder- when we go and fight a war somewhere, the body count is collateral damage. A necessary part of freedom.

Count the bodies in any major 20th century war. COVID is nowhere as near deadly and never will be.
—————————————————-

USA Covid Fatalities: 117k
USA WW1 Fatalities: 116k

Thanks for playing Ace.

________________

Tater, not an accurate comparison.
To be accurate, these numbers must be expressed as a percentage of population at the time of death count.
US population has increased roughly 3 times since WW1, so approx. triple amount of deaths from the war as compared to covid.
—————————————————————-

Well, Ace wasn’t talking rates, he was talking absolutes.

But if we want to bring up rates, lets adjust out the 63k military personnel that died from the Spanish flu during WW1 that are included in the 116k.

Now we have 53k who died from combat, on a population of about 103m.

So, the US just needs 55k more deaths for the rates to be equal. I’m pretty sure we’ll get there.

#85 IHCTD9 on 06.15.20 at 11:17 am

#68 Ace Goodheart on 06.14.20 at 11:25 pm
RE: #4 John on 06.14.20 at 3:53 pm

The semi I went to see in Humber summit in GTA sold for $880K!! These semis used to sell for $790k before pandemic. Real estate prices are crazy and prices going up for anything under $1.5M which is majority. Real estate is on fire.

////////////////////////////////

That is the exact same thing that I have noticed.

Anything between about a million and just over a million three, it is like watching piranhas feed. Absolutely vicious. You can see the steam and foam rising over the open house as the newly weds battle it out for bidding war supremacy.
——

Probably the same everywhere. Out here 3-500k homes still move, north of 500 to about 700, they begin to sit a long time. Over that, and you are kicking it on the MLS for years potentially.

I watch the MLS for my area regularly, some million plus homes have been on and off the market for 3 years. Some lived in, some empty.

No one wants to take a loss on an expensive home, but I watched a dude carrying a 1.8 million dollar empty home the last few years. That burned about 30k per year, and the guy dropped 300 grand over the three years. I still don’t think it sold, it may be rented.

This place was a pure flip attempt. Guy bought, mowed the lawn, and relisted. Hopefully he gets the ass-kicking of a life time on it.

#86 Lambchop on 06.15.20 at 11:18 am

#84 Tater on 06.15.20 at 10:25

But if we want to bring up rates, lets adjust out the 63k military personnel that died from the Spanish flu during WW1 that are included in the 116k.

Now we have 53k who died from combat, on a population of about 103m.

So, the US just needs 55k more deaths for the rates to be equal. I’m pretty sure we’ll get there

_____________________

Sooo… can we also then remove all covid deaths with pre-existing co-morbidities and palliative care “covid” deaths?

#87 Chaz Seams on 06.15.20 at 11:23 am

#76 Dharm. Quite a tale of two tapes. Certainly opening in Ottawa is a questionable political move to turn the hot lights off Trudeau after an unpopular legacy of Corona Incompetence.

Fever checks will now happen in airports for all, not just inbound. The move is only 7 months late. Obviously politics has to try and sweep away Trudeaus tarnished reputation.

Now, take a photo op knee in the midst of thousands and hope all the science malarkey from WHO and Doctor Tam about social distancing to contain an active virus was all just paranoid pish. Apparently, alls well and Trudeau knows the way, the Virus is over when we say it’s over.

I just got off the phone with an office colleague in Beijing. The entire city went into emergency lock down this afternoon. People were ordered to drop everything and get the hell out on a moments notice. The second wave is in full swing.

Let’s see which set of politicians are right? Trudeaus braintrust, or the Chinese Military.

Morgan Stanley isn’t on Trudeaus side. But Trudeau is our great leader, not a bunch of over educated bankers and billionaires.

#88 Sonny on 06.15.20 at 12:03 pm

Feds looking to extend CERB for those still unemployed: PM

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/feds-looking-to-extend-cerb-for-those-still-unemployed-pm-1.4984460

#89 Yuus bin Haad on 06.15.20 at 12:05 pm

I was able to secure a bridge loan recently using my 45 of Johnny Bower and Little John with the Rinky Dinks singing “Honky the Christmas Goose” as collateral – it was #1’s original autograph on the sleeve that clinched the deal

#90 Sparky55 on 06.15.20 at 12:23 pm

https://www.oakbaynews.com/news/feds-working-on-a-way-to-extend-cerb-payments-trudeau-says/

#91 Phylis on 06.15.20 at 12:33 pm

Hints given by ministers update today, cerb to be extended.

#92 Rico on 06.15.20 at 12:46 pm

“After a 70% sales drop in April there was bound to be pent-up demand. As predicted here. Don’t get too excited. Unlikely to last. – Garth”

oh oh. Is Garth softening his stance from “the crash is here to to “unlikely to last”??

When did I forecast a ‘crash’? – Garth

#93 Barb on 06.15.20 at 12:49 pm

“Not a great outcome. And this is not the sole cost.”

—————————————-
Wonder what mortgage deferrals do to credit ratings!

#94 maxx on 06.15.20 at 12:56 pm

@ #89

Hi-freakin’-larious! LOL. Thanks for the chuckle…….sadly, there’s a large grain of truth in there.

#95 Debt addict on 06.15.20 at 1:19 pm

CIBC said they won’t be reporting it credit rating agencies. So, what is the big deal?

It doesn’t work that way. – Garth

#96 Tater on 06.15.20 at 1:57 pm

#86 Lambchop on 06.15.20 at 11:18 am
#84 Tater on 06.15.20 at 10:25

But if we want to bring up rates, lets adjust out the 63k military personnel that died from the Spanish flu during WW1 that are included in the 116k.

Now we have 53k who died from combat, on a population of about 103m.

So, the US just needs 55k more deaths for the rates to be equal. I’m pretty sure we’ll get there

_____________________

Sooo… can we also then remove all covid deaths with pre-existing co-morbidities and palliative care “covid” deaths?
———————————————————–

Sure but you then have to remove all the people who died due to infections after being wounded on the battlefield.

#97 Tater on 06.15.20 at 1:59 pm

And for the nutter going on about CLOs, here’s some reading for you: https://nathantankus.substack.com/p/is-there-really-a-looming-bank-collapse

#98 Ace Goodheart on 06.15.20 at 2:00 pm

#85 IHCTD9 on 06.15.20 at 11:17 am

With housing, the more expensive the house, the smaller the market.

Friend purchased a 2.2 million dollar dump in Mississauga. The idea was sit on it and then sell for a million dollar profit, as at the time prices were going up 30% per year.

Problem was, the house was idiotic in design, a conglomeration of various failed renovation attempts, and no one with money would want to live in it. The lot was like a park. You could walk down to the river behind it and feed the ducks. It would have made a great tear down, except that it is very difficult to tear down and rebuild anything on that street due to the neighbourhood associations that stop everything and keep you in various tribunals for years, fighting every little thing you try to do.

He ended up selling it for 2.9 million, after it sat on the market for 7 years with various Agents trying to sell it and rent it (one of the tenants actually set fire to it, but as it is mostly made of brick, it didn’t burn).

The property taxes on that street are around 30K per year. The roof was replaced for about 40K (the footprint of the building is huge, and there are a lot of shingles).

I think he lost maybe 500K on that.

The problem with expensive houses, is your market is so small, that you are selling to the 1% that can actually afford them. And these people are so picky. Any reno you do, they hate. Any colour you pick, they want something else. Do up the kitchen any way you like, they don’t like it.

They are impossible to please.

I think what has happened, is in Toronto anyway, 1.3 million is the cap in terms of what the masses can afford. Anything above that, you are selling to the 1%. There are just not enough 1% ers actually in the market for a house.

#99 Ace Goodheart on 06.15.20 at 2:07 pm

Here is another one I am watching:

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.654677&-79.480805&16?listing=42-glendonwyne-road-toronto-w4793446-4141132

This is a gut and reno job. I figure 300K to make it liveable. That is if it is insulated and has a vapour barrier (a lot of the older ones are not and do not). I count the plugs, one per room, and I figure new wiring. The heating system looks useable but I’d like to see how old the boiler is. It will need air conditioning. And a kitchen and two new bathrooms. The basement probably needs dug down.

You might be able to save the floors but I would need to walk on them to see. Likely they squeak and probably are damaged. Windows need replacing, original with those weird 1960s outer metal storm windows screwed over top.

This should sit for a while and go under asking.

#100 Ronaldo on 06.15.20 at 2:24 pm

Sign on restaurant door:

We are now open but it will be self-cerb due to inability to get former employees to return to work.

Sign on CRA office:

Come on in, we will be pleased to cerb you.

Others:

I plan to do my cerbing in Tofino this summer.

That person is so self-cerbing.

Enjoying the life of cerbitude.

Feel free to add any others.

#101 cto on 06.15.20 at 3:28 pm

Hey Garth!
Looks like the NDP are strangling the Libs into extending the CERB benefits!
I wonder how much longer this helicopter money will last??? I say…2 more years.
When the NDP are elected next, it could be indefinite! Anyone else want to gamble???

#102 Rico on 06.15.20 at 6:15 pm

“When did I forecast a ‘crash’? – Garth”

Is 18% a crash?
Is 30% a crash?
“Now while overall debt will increase for those deferring their loan payments, the value of the asset being financed may drop. CMHC has famously said a decline of up to 18% in prices, nationally, could occur over the next year. Moody’s says 30%, maybe. National Bank estimates 10% which would be “sharper than any of the country’s last three recessions,” including the 2008-9 credit crisis.”

Those, as stated, are not my forecasts. – Garth

#103 Happy Boy on 06.16.20 at 9:04 am

“If you’ve ever tangled with them, you know”… Yeah, lots of fun. It took me three months, lots of hoops, and a threat to bring in the Ombudsman for a failure to follow the legislation to make a correction to my records. It was extremely satisfying to watch their arrogance turn to capitulation.