The V

If you’ve spent the pandemic with your butt in sweatpants and you money in cash, don’t feel too proud. It’s time to put on your pants.

From hitting a virus-induced low on March 23rd, stock markets have just had the best 50-day run in history. Like, ever. The gains have been 40% or better for the Dow, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and even Bay Street. And while investor confidence has been brimming, fear has been tanking. During its worst Covid Moment, the Vix topped out at 83 – the scariest reading since the 2008-09 credit crisis. By Thursday it sat at 25. So while stocks are up 40%, volatility’s down 70%.

Remember when this blog talked about a V-shaped recovery, back when the steerage section was dressing in hazmat and telling us a billion people would die? Well, does this look like a V to you?…

Of course it does. And this may well continue. There’s a sense markets will actually finish 2020 in record territory (unless Trump loses the election and starts a civil war). Just look at the latest news:

  • The Bank of Canada’s shiny new boss took over the reins this week, saying the feds will start throttling back on stimulus spending because the peak of the virus impact has passed.
  • Financial ETFs saw $123 million in net inflows last month. Investors have pumped almost half a billion into the banking sector this year, taking advantage of a plop in values that came after the virus arrived. The Big Banks have won huge gobs of confidence for the responsible way they dealt with the bug and have retained 100% of their dividend payouts. The worst is in the rearview.
  • Jobless claims in the US are awful, but about as expected. Unemployment numbers on Friday morning will suck large, but are expected to represent Peak Virus.
  • The European Central Bank just shoveled another 600 billion euros into markets, bringing the total since March to 1.35 trillion. (One euro = $1.53.)
  • US mortgage applications are up 62% and approaching all-time highs.
  • American Airlines will boost flights by 74% in July as demand from travelers swells much faster than expected. Load factor of just 15% in April surged to 55% in May.
  • A new Nik Nanos poll finds 30% of Canadians who lost their jobs to the virus are working again. “Research suggests that the initial shock of job loss and fewer working hours is wearing off as some Canadians’ job prospects start to brighten,” says the pollster. “It is too early to tell whether this trajectory will continue to a recovery or flatten into a new more depressed jobs normal.”
  • And look at oil. Traders had to pay people $30 a barrel to take the stuff off their hands in April. Now a barrel costs $37 US for the West Texas stuff. That’s a price recovery never experienced before, and my suspender-snapping fancy portfolio manager buddy Ryan is call for $50-60 crude next year as economies, and demand, spring back.

Is all this at odds with what you see around you at the mall, walking past shuttered eateries and in the historic stats about lost jobs, economic decline and millions on the dole or unable to pay their mortgages?

You bet.

At first it makes no sense. How can financial assets, commodities and portfolios roar when the real economy was chewed up so badly by the pandemic? Why is there such a disconnect between Bay Street and Main Street?

Well, as this pathetic blog has pointed out, the rich hold assets and the rest hold debt. Those assets have been massively supported by central banks and governments at all levels who chopped interest rates, spent trillions buying up negotiable securities like government and corporate bonds, plus dumped trillions more into the hands of consumers and businesses to replace money lost in wages and profits. Meanwhile all of the consumer and mortgage debt remains to be paid. Just deferred. Still owed. The lenders will be made whole.

When Covid came we told you pandemics are temporary. They pass. Demand is postponed, not destroyed. Since then the economic rubble has been huge and public spending without precedent. Now the curve has flattened. The health care system was not overwhelmed. Deaths were fewer than anticipated and eight in ten were among the elderly or compromised. (94% were people over 60, and who cares about those old hippies?) A second wave could come, of course. Society could re-open too fast. Freaked-out citizens could balk at returning to their old habits, or even wanting to work. Lots could go wrong.

But facts are facts. Anyone selling into this storm got whacked. Those who let the headlines and the politicians guide them went over a cliff. Moving to cash as the pandemic unfolded was a disastrous strategy. Forgetting the lessons of Nine Eleven, Y2K, the credit crisis, the Asian Contagion or Black Friday meant making paper losses real. Sitting on the sidelines, trying to time the market instead of staying invested, was an amateur folly.

It wasn’t different this time. Because it never is.

 

 

234 comments ↓

#1 Jake on 06.04.20 at 1:17 pm

60/40 makes a V

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/the-standard-60-40-retirement-portfolio-of-stocks-and-bonds-just-went-into-the-green-for-the-year.html

#2 Lee on 06.04.20 at 1:26 pm

None of it will matter when Washington falls this week. The US government can’t handle Antifa, BLM and the rioters. Tonight at 9:00 p.m. on CNN.

#3 Bytor the Snow Dog on 06.04.20 at 1:30 pm

@2 Lee- LOL.

THIIRDDDDD!

#4 Thomas on 06.04.20 at 1:36 pm

I still bet the next drop will take the market lower than March. And it won’t be long till we have it, highly probable by the year end.

I do use this folly to liquidate the postions and go CASH only in the registered accounts. Gold for the rest. I do not time the market. I only look at the market players’ actions, especially the FED and the Bank of Canada interventions.

it is very comparable with your analysis on the real estate lately. One abnormal situation cannot last that long… Markets are not rational, neither do people….

There will not be a 40% market drop when the economy is reopening. You’ve been licking your bullion too much. – Garth

#5 Apache indian. on 06.04.20 at 1:41 pm

What about the second wave?

#6 Chris on 06.04.20 at 1:45 pm

hmmm

Druckenmiller, Paul Singer, Sam Zell, Warren Buffett, Mark Cuban, Gundlach, Icahn, Tudor Jones, etc etc
….none are bullish or buying into this bounce.

#Timestamp this post

40% is recovery, not a bounce. Think for yourself. – Garth

#7 Sail away on 06.04.20 at 1:50 pm

I’m absolutely flabbergasted at our portfolio increase from sticking exactly to the plan for a major dip. A 40% dip was always the dreamed-for, but unexpected unicorn in the sky. That was the Sail Away dynasty’s Rubicon.

This is huge… gigantic, massive… almost vulgar.

What’s next? The business, of course. Bank balances are burgeoning. Proceeding forthwith.

#8 Toronto_CA on 06.04.20 at 1:56 pm

Once I broke even for 2020 YTD I took a pause and half my equities out of the game for a bit. I’m up so much over the last decade that I’m okay to miss some gains right now; once the virus is firmly in the rear view mirror I’m happy to buy back in. I’m only trying to time half the market!

I think by September, we’ll all be feeling better and by February we should know the full extent of our brand new “normal” for wall street and main street.

Until then, this is so much in uncharted territory I am a little more than afraid to predict.

#9 Mexican mama on 06.04.20 at 1:56 pm

Looking to invest in Chinese growth in China
Could someone recommend a stock for me?

#10 Faron on 06.04.20 at 2:04 pm

Thanks for the post Garth and all your work here.

I’ll take my share of crow. Especially on the economic end of things. However, i think the stimulus measures were necessary and have helped precipitate the V. Yes, ideally people could have bridged this gap with savings but RE obsession and insane cost of living with low wages and exorbitant consumerism precluded that for many. So, given the situation, CERB etc. was the only viable option to keep economic bed-crapping to a dull roar.

I’m saddened that a slow response led to more death and a more drawn out lock-down and slower reopening. I’m also watching global case numbers accelerate over the past month and find that troubling. There may be fall surprises but the playbook is a known entity now and that does a lot for confidence.

I’m happy to have some camping trips lined up and am able to hang out with friends again. Life was never bad for me in this but now it’s getting good again.

Cheers

#11 dogman01 on 06.04.20 at 2:06 pm

Today’s Politically Correct enforcement mechanism.

Stockwell Day entered in a public discussion on a CBC panel he has been part of for some time.
He made comment: “Yes, there’s a few idiot racists hanging around but Canada is not a racist country and most Canadians are not racist. And our system, that always needs to be improved, is not systemically racist.”

Now for that he has pretty much been exiled from Public Life, asked to leave positions with two major Canadian companies.

How can anyone purport we have Freedom of Speech in this society? This is an antithesis to the Western Tradition of debating ideas, there is one narrative and very few have the resources or are prepared for the consequences of uttering a challenge to that narrative.

On the flip side, Words have no meaning now, Trudeau agrees that Canada committed a Genocide, but then does …well nothing and his followers just shrug his inaction off.

We have truly entered a 1984 of publicly requiring “Doublespeak” well on our way to “Doublethink”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/stockwell-day-systemic-racism-canada-1.5597550

Fortunately our host does exercise a willingness to express freely on some controversial topics, and he also has a lot to lose.

I used to think older people just had life Wisdom, but I suspect they also have the freedom from consequences and can call it like they see it.

#12 not 1st on 06.04.20 at 2:10 pm

Trump isn’t going to start anything. The communities will start pushing back against Antifa thugs themselves. They are already breaking up protests and defending themselves and properties including suburban liberals.

Trump just slam dunked the Nov election. Wonder what they will try next?

When the chips are down you want an SOB in your corner to go after the lawless and corrupt.

#13 Upenuff on 06.04.20 at 2:14 pm

March 24, after taking it on the chin, a work colleague pulled everything out of the market after his 40% loses. We spoke 4 weeks later and when he told me what he had done pulling everything out, he asked me what I thought of that move. I was speachless and I guess the look on my face said it all. I dont think he is going to want to see that S&P “V” graph……

#14 Jake on 06.04.20 at 2:16 pm

The disconnect between Bay/Wall Street and Main Street is normal. After the 2008-09 crash, jobs didn’t fully recover until 2014, about 5 years later.

I was buying in March, I didn’t expect things to get as bad as they did, but there’s no way I would be caught holding cash when every other time the market always bounced back… always.

#15 not 1st on 06.04.20 at 2:18 pm

Does this sound like a surge for a guy like Biden?

Liberals and liberal cities and states arming themselves.

Funny how a pandemic and riots can push your progressive pet causes to the background.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/490556-us-riots-gun-sales-soar/

#16 Sail away on 06.04.20 at 2:21 pm

#9 Mexican mama on 06.04.20 at 1:56 pm

Looking to invest in Chinese growth in China
Could someone recommend a stock for me?

————-

Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Somero (SOM.L)

Put them on a watchlist for a year and do your research first.

#17 jokkon on 06.04.20 at 2:21 pm

@ Thomas #4

If what you are doing/did is not considered market timing, I don’t know what is.

#18 Faron on 06.04.20 at 2:25 pm

#15 not 1st on 06.04.20 at 2:18 pm

If you have a problem with media having an agenda, don’t you think RT may fall into that category? And do you support RT’s agenda? Especially as laid out in an Op Ed?

#19 Sean on 06.04.20 at 2:30 pm

Thanks Garth! I’m a millennial trying to make good financial decisions out there.
In the last two years reading your blog I:
Quit trying to pick stocks and have focused on a more BD portfolio.
Have given up on owning a house and instead focus on investing in liquid assets that actually pay me.
Stayed the course during this pandemic while everyone around me was crying that the sky was falling.

#20 Stylite on 06.04.20 at 2:36 pm

On May 8th I mentioned I had an apprenticeship trade position interview. Nearly a month later and I got call back. Looks like I”ll be starting on Monday, just in time for phase 3 re openings.
I appreciate this positive and forward-looking article today. Let it set the tone for what is to come!

#21 Ronaldo on 06.04.20 at 2:36 pm

#5 Apache indian. on 06.04.20 at 1:41 pm
What about the second wave?
—————————————————————-
Relax. If it’s not worst than the first, nothing to worry about.

On Vancouver Island, since Jan. 1st, there have been 127 cases, 121 recovered, 5 died, 1 in hospital (not ICU)

So, 5 months into the year and 5 deaths. That is 1 per month. That is some pandemic.

#22 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 06.04.20 at 2:36 pm

RateSpy guy is reporting CMHC to lower gross and total debt service ratios for insured mortgages.

The lumberjack yells, timberrrrrrrrr.

#23 Doug in London on 06.04.20 at 2:49 pm

Well, here we go again. Back in March when stocks were ON SALE, I read the same drivel here as in previous sale events about how the world was going to end and markets would again drop below the lows in March. When stocks and equity ETFs go ON SALE you should be fired out of a cannon and DIVE IN HEAD FIRST to scoop up the AMAZING bargains while they last. It seems so idiot no brainer simple, I don’t know why everyone doesn’t do it.

#24 Calgary Rip Off on 06.04.20 at 2:56 pm

“We are all in this together”= Communist mindset.

Incorrect thinking. It is God who decides everything. Another human cannot save you. Perhaps they can help. Most do not help. Some do help.

What is important is mindset. And that is why some are rich and others are in debt. Attentional focus of what is relevant.

What is valuable is time to train attention and thinking styles.

Wei Chi or Go, is used in Asia to train the mind. Freely available to all and priceless in learning to think strategically and tactically.

Covid 19 is not a scam. It is important to be vigilant. Be healthy and proper choices for health and wealth.

We are NOT all in this together as demonstrated by the rich becoming richer at this time.

#25 Congrats ... on 06.04.20 at 2:59 pm

#20 Stylite on 06.04.20 at 2:36 pm

On May 8th I mentioned I had an apprenticeship trade position interview. Nearly a month later and I got call back. Looks like I”ll be starting on Monday, just in time for phase 3 re openings.
—————————————
Make the most of it …

#26 gattaca on 06.04.20 at 3:08 pm

I’m up 13.7% YTD.

I was slightly underperforming YTD the S&P 500 pre-Covid with 20% in cash.

A week before market bottomed on March 23, deployed 75% of cash in mostly tech & biotech. Top gainer has been cyber security firm Crowdstrike.

Trimmed some of my less conviction legacy stocks in a post-Covid age and now at 10% cash.

#27 Howard on 06.04.20 at 3:08 pm

Did Stockwell Day seriously get deplatformed from our state-funded broadcaster for saying that, although there are racists in society, Canada is not by and large a racist country?

#28 Brian Ripley on 06.04.20 at 3:10 pm

My Toronto housing chart is up with May data:

http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

Buyers are combing the housing market for deals.

Total residential housing sales rose off the extreme low of last month as sellers continued to cash in since JAN 2018 taking advantage of the late stage #FOMO crowd attempting to bull the market back to the 2017 highs.

The animal spirits are active.

Meanwhile in my twitter feed today from Bloomberg:

“Gap Sued by Simon Property Over $65.9 Million in Unpaid Rent”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-04/gap-sued-by-simon-property-over-65-9-million-in-unpaid-rent?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-australia&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=australia

Fundamentals can trip up the best of intentions investing in real estate.

#29 Trojan House on 06.04.20 at 3:13 pm

#11 dogman01 on 06.04.20 at 2:06 pm

I’ll have to go watch his comment but I wholly agree with your comment. There is no freedom of speech left in the West. We have moved from rational debate to eliminating all debate somebody doesn’t agree with, including hard discussions such as racism. Today, in our feminized society, it has become more about how something makes someone “feel.” It’s amazing how people don’t see what happens. I was on a call with colleagues this morning and all they could talk about was how there was systemic racism in Canada.

Personally, I don’t believe there is systemic racism in Canada. However, I do think there has been wrongs committed in the past that should be acknowledged, such as the residential school debacle.

#30 Mr. Market on 06.04.20 at 3:20 pm

The Dow will hit 30K by fall. Those who sat on the sidelines are big losers. You may still make money if you buy now but you could have made a lot more if you bought earlier.

Big investors have made mistakes in the past. Carl Icahn lost billions with his energy bet. Warren Buffet lost billions holding onto his airlines positions and sold it in March at a loss. Airlines have since bounced 30% higher.

#31 not 1st on 06.04.20 at 3:21 pm

#18 Faron on 06.04.20 at 2:25 pm

Oh I heard about that through social media where the real news is.

RT was the only organization that looked into it and google search didn’t censor.

Pick your poison.

#32 Thomas on 06.04.20 at 3:23 pm

#23 Doug in London on 06.04.20 at 2:49 pm

…. you need CASH to scoop the bargains. You cannot have CASH if you’re fully invested in the stock market.

So, you need some planning and actions to get prepared and ready for the DIVE.

#33 JacqueShellacque on 06.04.20 at 3:24 pm

The XIC and XIN graphs look more U-shaped, Garth. Canadian preferreds and REITs still down a ton, and even with unprecedented stimulus. I think it’s too early to call the recovery.

#12: “Trump just slam dunked the Nov election. Wonder what they will try next?”
I agree. The Orange One has taken yet another attempted wallop from the left, media, and cultural elites, and they’ve been hurt more in the long run than he’ll be. I doubt much of this riot and looting stuff sticks to him among swing voters in the midwest, the ones who decided the election last time and probably will again.

#34 Keith on 06.04.20 at 3:26 pm

You would think with this kind of post retirement opportunities, we could attract some better people to run for Prime Minister.

https://420intel.ca/articles/2020/05/28/cannabis-industry-continues-shell-out-big-bucks-those-top-including-14-million

#35 Dolce Vita on 06.04.20 at 3:31 pm

I love it when you get cocky Garth (a good thing).

CERB June 2nd:

Applications up by say 200,000 from a few days prior. Only a paltry 8.37 million raked in an equally paltry $43.18 Billion. 15.32 million applications (15.18 million a few days before).

Recall:

April Labor Force = 18.6 million of which 2.42 million have NO job.

As for:

“Nik Nanos poll finds 30% of Canadians who lost their jobs to the virus are working again.”

The prior numbers certainly verify their poll findings as:

Unicorns. Faerie Dust. Leprechaun end of the rainbow pots of gold.

Was it Canada they polled?

Nanos needs to lay off the Ganja.

————————–

It IS getting better for investors (asset vs. debt holders conundrum) but for MAINSTREAM Canada it doesn’t look like it to me.

Don’t get me wrong Garth I am as ENTHUSIASTIC AS YOU to see Canada get out from under the yoke of that damn virus…but for the mainstream, Canada is not there yet.

60% of GDP in Canada is Consumer Spending. A reasonable barometer for that, Retail Trade, was -10% in March, Statcan forecast for April in the March report:

-15.6%

…a big hole to dig out from under for mainstream Canada.

#36 Attrition on 06.04.20 at 3:37 pm

A mic-drop post if ever there was one, Garth. I like these better than your apocalyptic RE posts.

I’m a market timer: sold when the Dow was at 28xxx, bought back in at 19xxx. Rather enjoying the ride back up.

But listen to those who know: don’t ever try to time the markets!*


#27 Howard on 06.04.20 at 3:08 pm
Did Stockwell Day seriously get deplatformed from our state-funded broadcaster for saying that, although there are racists in society, Canada is not by and large a racist country?

I was thinking the exact same thing.

The TELUS Board’s comments, that Day’s statements don’t align with TELUS values made me wonder: did they mean TELUS values don’t include free speech or holding an informed opinion about the nation of your birth?

Strange.

Now they want us to think that questioning the degree of racism in society is now racist.

Don’t fall for it folks: that’s textbook suppression of ideas, opinions, critical thinking etc. Very Marxists indeed.

And this is a TELUS value.

* Unless you have iron stones

#37 BillyBob on 06.04.20 at 3:37 pm

#21 Ronaldo on 06.04.20 at 2:36 pm
#5 Apache indian. on 06.04.20 at 1:41 pm
What about the second wave?
—————————————————————-
Relax. If it’s not worst than the first, nothing to worry about.

On Vancouver Island, since Jan. 1st, there have been 127 cases, 121 recovered, 5 died, 1 in hospital (not ICU)

So, 5 months into the year and 5 deaths. That is 1 per month. That is some pandemic.

==================================================

Yep. Sister is an RN at Vic Gen. Sister-in-law, at Jubilee. They did prepare heavily but the feared projections were very, very wrong.

#38 Timmy on 06.04.20 at 3:38 pm

You are not taking into account the health effects when the economy re opens. If there are significant spikes in infection there may be further squelching of the economy.

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.20 at 3:44 pm

#146 Sail away on 06.04.20 at 11:05 am
#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.03.20 at 7:00 pm

There are 3 cars with Alberta license plates parked in my hood.

All coming to the land of milk and honey, where rentals are plenty and rents are dropping.

—————

There’s an Austrian immigrant family in my neighbourhood. We talked about Ferlach. And dirndls, of course. Always dirndls.
———————-
Can you tell me the last name of the family.
I’ve got a relative in Ferlach. It’s a small place.
He could do some fact checking for me.
Thanks

#40 Flanneur on 06.04.20 at 3:47 pm

Bought as much as I could, mopped up all my cash and grabbed equity since the markets began falling. Even convinced my wife to not buy anything other than groceries, slimmed down all my expenses, and used the years supply of toilet paper i bought on sale at Costco before this who thing even began.

It’s looking like we could retire a year earlier thanks to this mess.

#41 Sail away on 06.04.20 at 3:51 pm

#32 Thomas on 06.04.20 at 3:23 pm
#23 Doug in London on 06.04.20 at 2:49 pm

…. you need CASH to scoop the bargains. You cannot have CASH if you’re fully invested in the stock market.

So, you need some planning and actions to get prepared and ready for the DIVE.

————

Yes. It’s called rebalancing. There was plenty of time to do it at the stock low point.

#42 Dolce Vita on 06.04.20 at 3:52 pm

And to all the “screw the lockdown” people here, well, well, well…top Swedish epidemiologist Adners Tegnell (Mr. Herd Immunity, keep economy open), at a news conference on June 3, 2020:

“That if he knew before what he knows now, he would have taken a different approach to handling the pandemic.” (a.k.a., lockdown).

Swedish GDP -7% like everyone else. No herd immunity. Cost lives. Swedes a kind and good hearted people, let down by their Gov.

And “measly cold” Bolsonaro now wearing a mask, yet still in denial, and enjoying some fabulous no lockdown numbers in his country:

584,016 cases.
32,548 deaths.
Daily cases, exponential.

————————

As for BC, you’re testing level is abysmally low, about 1/3 that of Italia, way less than ON (you won’t find the test level at BC health web sites, wonder why?).

…COUNT NO EVIL, hear no…

lgG Spanish 60,000 person study found 5%. Means BC, you had about 250,000 or so cases. NYC found up to 14% lgG in some burroughs, means there would be even more cases in BC.

You know, 5 million people, 2623 cases?

Occam’s Razor

(and not Orca’s, rarified air, Coho Salmon, Superman, downtown YVR stacked like sardines in concrete pillboxes, or the like).

Be grateful the lockdown saved many lives instead of writing it off and being cavalier while at it.

#43 Dogman01 on 06.04.20 at 3:57 pm

#27 Howard on 06.04.20 at 3:08 pm

He resigned from the CBC panel, gut lost his Board seat at Telus and with a Law Firm. He resigned from the Board seats, but really we all know you are asked to resign and you do.

I think he realized having a perspective and being on a Media panel in today’s PC culture will destroy his public life.

So many of us are in this situation that we require anonymity to discus any public issue.

#44 Lefty on 06.04.20 at 4:05 pm

2 weeks ago in Ottawa you’d get a bylaw ticket if you and 4 friends sat down in a park. Tomorrow, 20,000+ will gather for a protest.

Mr Fedeli just announced airbnb back to full force at midnight tonight.

Covid scare is beginning to feel very last month in nature. American Airlines stock up 41% today.

#45 Faron on 06.04.20 at 4:06 pm

#31 not 1st on 06.04.20 at 3:21 pm

    #18 Faron on 06.04.20 at 2:25 pm

    Oh I heard about that through social media where the real news is.

    RT was the only organization that looked into it and google search didn’t censor.

    Pick your poison.

——–

I’ll add that I don’t think the op ed was wrong. Anecdotal evidence among my lefty friends in the US tells me gun sales among that group are going up. I’ve read articles in other news sources

But, I bristle when I see RT showing up or Sputnik. While you may not agree that there was Russian/Trump collusion, there certainly were concerted social media campaigns aimed at supporting him. I was getting a lot of their content in my feed in 2016 as the campaigns ramped up. Some was run-of-the-mill news and other stuff was either subtly or not so subtly pro-Russia propaganda.

Russia aims to sow confusion and chaos in North America especially the US wherever possible and that can take many forms and doesn’t fall along party lines unless it benefits their agenda.  They were campaigning on behalf of Sanders for cripes sake. They’ve helped amplify conflicts between BLM and others and they are certainly acting to amplify current tensions in the US. I don’t mean to patronize you, but if you value western democracy, whatever you view it to be, you should read RT and Sputnik or any other media source carefully. I read a lot of Al Jazeera who are based out of Qatar, but I know what their biases are (anti Saudi for one). I don’t watch any cable news because all of it is geared to ad revenue and commercial appeal.

The “real news” could be on social media, but you have to be ready to listen to all voices, not just the one’s you like. More and more this is lost on all of us.

#46 theoryAndPractice on 06.04.20 at 4:16 pm

#6 Chris on 06.04.20 at 1:45 pm
—-
If they are not buying into it does not prove anything. There are possible two cases I can think of :
1- It is too late to get in now compared to March.
2- They were already in

I think their case is 1+2. Due to risk aversion they did not pursue (1) ‘timing the market’.

#47 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 4:17 pm

#27 Howard on 06.04.20 at 3:08 pm
Did Stockwell Day seriously get deplatformed from our state-funded broadcaster for saying that, although there are racists in society, Canada is not by and large a racist country?

——————————

Yeah man, like, how could they not, like, see the obvious truth of what he was sayin??

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2020/06/country-responsible-for-the-indian-act-chinese-head-tax-komagata-maru-africville-none-is-too-many-japanese-internment-camps-sixties-scoop-residential-schools-oka-crisis-and-mmiwg-declares-itsel/

#48 rockinror on 06.04.20 at 4:19 pm

A solid wave 2 should give us an additional 40% rise from here to massive all time highs!

#49 MF on 06.04.20 at 4:25 pm

31 not 1st on 06.04.20 at 3:21

Social media is where you find “the real answers”?

Unbelievable.

Say what you want about the msm, but social media has morphed into something really really ugly. Be careful. We’ve created a monster.

MF

#50 YVR Renter on 06.04.20 at 4:32 pm

Sold signs popping up around the Dunbar hood, mostly crappy mold pit tear down SFD’s….but who is buying? These are relatively cheap for Dunbar, 2 sold a block apart that were listed at $2.2million-ish. But that’s for a lot, the house is junk….who is buying $2 million lots? A real crapshack on 27th sold close to $2.5 million. Maybe they’ll be bank accounts too and sit empty with foot high weeds like so many of their neighbours.

#51 Oracle of Ottawa on 06.04.20 at 4:32 pm

No doubt V is a great letter and will be followed by an even greater letter in the alphabet. The markets been on fire for sure, but the future isn’t as bright as what the market is predicting. Even this blog has indicated all the issues that will be coming as a result of shutting down the economy for 4 months and counting. Buffet and other high stakes investors are sitting on cash. Their economists working for them don’t like the forecast. The new normal won’t be the same as the old normal.

#52 YVR Renter on 06.04.20 at 4:33 pm

Spoke to our guru analyst today….he’s thinking from talking to his gurus that we’re in for another dip, then to the moon in 2021.

#53 Sail away on 06.04.20 at 4:39 pm

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.20 at 3:44 pm
#146 Sail away on 06.04.20 at 11:05 am
#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.03.20 at 7:00 pm

There are 3 cars with Alberta license plates parked in my hood.
All coming to the land of milk and honey, where rentals are plenty and rents are dropping.

———–

There’s an Austrian immigrant family in my neighbourhood. We talked about Ferlach. And dirndls, of course. Always dirndls.

———–

Can you tell me the last name of the family.
I’ve got a relative in Ferlach. It’s a small place.
He could do some fact checking for me.
Thanks

———–

Oh, the neighbours aren’t from Ferlach, but my favourite side by side shotgun was made there by master gunsmith Josef Hambrusch in 1947.

The Hambrusch company is still in operation. I’ve been in touch with them a few times and am looking forward to visiting their shop to pick up some parts in August if planes are flying.

#54 Camille on 06.04.20 at 4:44 pm

Congratulations Garth. Take a victory lap you’ve earned it. I think to be a true hippie you need to be more like 70. Being 60 will make you an Alice Cooper glam fan. And 60 year olds didn’t read newspaper Rolling Stone and Whole Earth catalogue. We need to be tidy with the blog.

#55 Sail away on 06.04.20 at 4:47 pm

#36 Attrition on 06.04.20 at 3:37 pm

A mic-drop post if ever there was one, Garth. I like these better than your apocalyptic RE posts.

I’m a market timer: sold when the Dow was at 28xxx, bought back in at 19xxx. Rather enjoying the ride back up.

————-

Sure, selling can be market timing since I’ve many times taken profit then watched the stock continue up.

But buying at a low? That’s not market timing. Buying a good company at a bargain is just prudent.

#56 Retro Marxist on 06.04.20 at 4:47 pm

Future mortgage crisis in Canada?
https://youtu.be/EwaOQGmFZ6Y

#57 conan on 06.04.20 at 4:57 pm

Trump just slam dunked the Nov election.- Not First

I doubt that. I think he has guaranteed a loss in the Senate and probably puts the Republican Party in the dog house for 20 years.

Trump’s name will be synonymous with GOP destruction.

Canada has their own guy and that is Scheer. Doing a Scheer will mean taking out a Canadian political party for 20 years.

#58 westendkid on 06.04.20 at 5:07 pm

94% OF THEM WERE OVER 60 AND WHO CARES ABOUT THOSE OLD Hippie’s.
truly AWESOME

#59 Do we have all the facts on 06.04.20 at 5:08 pm

I would like to know where all this optimism about the USA economy is coming from. At the very minimum GDP in the USA is projected to contract by a minimum of 40 % in the second quarter of 2020 and the Congressional Budget Office is suggesting that it may take as long as ten years to recover to pre Covid 19 levels.

The unemployment rate has hit an all time high at more than 20% and there are very strong indications that it may stay above 10% for several years.

The deficit of the Federal government exceeds $100 billion per month and the total Federal government debt is approaching $24 trillion. In good times this level of debt seemed manageable but today the rapid decline of GDP has brought the ability to service their growing debt into question.

The trade deficit of the USA worldwide currently exceeds $50 billion per year and is growing. It seems very probable than measures will be put into place to reduce their dependency on foreign goods, including oil and gas from Canada.

When all factors are considered it may take some time before an economy driven by domestic consumption can recover to the point where the Canadian economy might receive a positive push.

Once again I am suggesting that we develop strategies to expand our role in the rapidly changing world economy.

#60 BillyBob on 06.04.20 at 5:08 pm

Meanwhile, in Brittania Unchained…

https://www.newsweek.com/uk-has-more-coronavirus-deaths-one-day-all-eu-countries-combined-1508534

Britain’s Got Talent.

#61 Minsitry of Love on 06.04.20 at 5:09 pm

#44 Lefty on 06.04.20 at 4:05 pm
” 2 weeks ago in Ottawa you’d get a bylaw ticket if you and 4 friends sat down in a park. Tomorrow, 20,000+ will gather for a protest. ”
==================================

Covid-19 is just used for total control of the population all over the world synchronously and big corporations take over of everything that is left after. It reminds me “Pavlov’s Dogs” experiment.

I still ask the question myself when it is known most vulnerable are the old people, why nursing homes in Nov/Dec 2019 in Canada did not get full protection. Instead, gov’t waited up until today for military-involvement and also they shut down the whole economy in the country,after all parameters proper to do so.

Why would anyone do that?

#62 Toronto_CA on 06.04.20 at 5:09 pm

Holy hell. We need an emergency blog.
____

Effective July 1, the following changes will apply for new applications for homeowner transactional and portfolio mortgage insurance:

Limiting the Gross/Total Debt Servicing (GDS/TDS) ratios to our standard requirements of 35/42;
Establish minimum credit score of 680 for at least one borrower; and
Non-traditional sources of down payment that increase indebtedness will no longer be treated as equity for insurance purposes.

#63 bob on 06.04.20 at 5:10 pm

Garth, do you think the markets are currently pricing everything to perfection?

Meaning, the risk from here to the election is on the downside, not on the upside?

So if not to sell in the storm, would you advise that this would be a good time to sell and hold some extra cash on the sidelines?

#64 Billy Boy on 06.04.20 at 5:11 pm

Thanks for your honesty Mr. Turner.

The Central Banks helped those with assets regain their value.

Hey if poor people get welfare, it’s only fair the 1% do as well.

It’s nice knowing you can never lose in the markets as long as the printing continues.

What an honest, moral world.

#65 baloney Sandwitch on 06.04.20 at 5:17 pm

It’s not over yet. We will have 2nd and 3rd waves, but the shock will be less. Still lot of opportunity to buy.

#66 Deplorable Dude on 06.04.20 at 5:24 pm

#45 Faron “ While you may not agree that there was Russian/Trump collusion, there certainly were concerted social media campaigns aimed at supporting him. ”

Lol….really? Russians spent a puny $46k on Facebook ad’s. Trump/Clinton spent $81M combined.

Or were you referring to the massive $4700 the Russians spent on Google ad’s?

https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/russiagate-elections-interference/

As for the ‘Russian clickbait Farm’ indicted by Mueller’s Special council to much fanfare…the DOJ quietly dropped those charges as they were absurd.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/russia-troll-farm-reaction/index.html

#67 Westcdn on 06.04.20 at 5:24 pm

Personally, even though it would hurt me, I would reduce the dividend tax credit percentage. Believe it or not, corporations are great tax collectors plus “profit” can be manipulated – see bank loan loss provisions or goodwill write-downs for example. Our governments (Feds, Provincial, Municipals have spending problems. MMT is another kick the can down the road exercise. Behaviour will change given new rules from above.

I admit I suffer envy when some get too much for so little. Keeping people in their place is not good overall but then they can vote or protest and I would never take that away. Looting has no honour thus I am against.

#68 John on 06.04.20 at 5:29 pm

Apparently real estate prices are in fire too!! Hot! And they didn’t even crash like stocks did. Back to normal.

#69 John on 06.04.20 at 5:33 pm

Markets are fixed. The feds won’t let Wall Street and the rich lose their money. There’s a dip. Fed comes to the rescue printing $$. It doesn’t take a genius to know the markets will make you rich over Short and Long term based on this rescue mission time and again. You just need money to invest into it which only the top 10% have.

#70 V Real Market on 06.04.20 at 5:33 pm

If jobs are coming back, markets rebounding, May sales already gong up with prices, and people back to work what makes you think there will not be support for prices to remain at their current levels or higher after the initial bump in pent up demand?

#71 Not 1st on 06.04.20 at 5:34 pm

49 MF on 06.04.20 at 4:25 pm
—-

The answers are all there if you want to look.

Social media is far from perfect but I will cipher through it for hours before I watch even 30s of CNN.

It’s how I found out about the scamdemic back in march.

#72 Jeremy R Tompkins on 06.04.20 at 5:45 pm

“40% is recovery, not a bounce. Think for yourself. – Garth”

With the extreme volatility that has begun looking normal, it could very well be a bounce. It’s a recovery in share prices, that’s for sure. But not one that brings comfort to many.

#73 Piano_Man87 on 06.04.20 at 5:45 pm

I topped things up in April. I did alright.

My dad moved his retirement stuff from a conservative portfolio into money market stuff. Then he gradually waded back in as the recovery occurred. He’s probably kicking himself now. He thought it would take 5 years at least to get back to where we are now. Worse than ’08, he said.

#74 Steven Rowlandson on 06.04.20 at 5:45 pm

Quite likely it will be the leftists that start the civil war as usual and the elites will have another pandemic because they enjoy having medical marshal law. Look forward to covid-20…. Making the masses quiver with fear is power.

#75 JIm on 06.04.20 at 5:48 pm

Was does this economic discrepancy mean in the long-term? Surely creating a stock market devoid of any real risk coupled with the obliteration the entrepreneurial class comes with with some consequences. Doesn’t it?

#76 Oakville sucks on 06.04.20 at 5:49 pm

Stock market has been manipulated by the fed!! They’ve bought everything up.. that’s why! Fundamentals Suck!

#77 Herb on 06.04.20 at 5:50 pm

#49 MF,

Sorry, MF, you’ve got it wrong there.

“Social media” is where people go to find relevance for themselves and confirmation of their biases in self-selected echo chambers.

What you actually mean is “alternative media”, where people go to penetrate the universal fog of propaganda spread by the MSM and look for meaning.

#78 Graphics Girl on 06.04.20 at 5:52 pm

If the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, then why are we still under emergency orders?

#79 Phil on 06.04.20 at 5:54 pm

Stuff is getting better!

#80 johnny on 06.04.20 at 5:55 pm

Sigh..yeah all is great. The western world just added trillions to the debt in a few months. Central bankers have added unprecedented trillions as well which makes 2008 look like a trickle. The Fed balance sheet is now 7 or 8 trillion. No surprise here that they pumped the stock market back up but its all based on funny money they printed out of thin air and I guess at some point the Fed balance sheet will matter. As I have said many many times if the economy was sooo strong as Garth and many other say then why do interest rates need to be kept at record low levels all the time. Now we are likely going to negative interest rates which is so perverse its mind bending..but thats what it takes to create a fantary economy based on propping up the stock market to keep the rich rich and given an illusion of prosperity. We are getting close to the end game..enjoy the fun now but at some point reality will creep in. There has never been a bigger disconnect between the real economy and the stock market ever. The Fed and the central bankers just bailed out the rich again with everyones money they didnt even have..

#81 Blacksheep on 06.04.20 at 6:02 pm

A rising tide lifts all boats?
—————————
“But facts are facts. Anyone selling into this storm got whacked.”
—————————
1) So…just hold long term and this little correction will have been just a hiccup 5 years from know with your portfolio continuing its upward trajectory?

Fair enough.

2) But you better bail on the RE right now, before it collapses in on itself in three short months? You cant hold for 5 years and expect a similar inflationary outcomes as above?

WTH???
———————————-
1) I’m sure most realize, the % of voters that hold the bulk of their net worth in the much lauded, balanced portfolios is much, much smaller, than the % of voters that are all in on their personal RE holding (their primary res) Anybody thinking T2 is going to leave home owners hanging, is simply not reading the room accurately.

2) People do not need to worry about increased taxes resulting from a CMHC bailout, they need to worry about the increased taxes coming if the Liberal party needs to turn the sovereign printing press to 11 to bail out the personal home owner, because as T2 has just displayed, he’s more than willing to play the hero with your $.

#82 Alberta Ed on 06.04.20 at 6:07 pm

Just think what the Canadian economy could do with a competent federal government that works out of Parliament, not a tent!

#83 YouKnowWho on 06.04.20 at 6:08 pm

Garth, you do “I told you so” classy.

I bet you didn’t even use your right pinky typing this. It was raised up, right?

#84 rknusa on 06.04.20 at 6:11 pm

Big news credit is being tightened at CMHC

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/housing-agency-tightens-canadian-mortgage-rules-amid-downturn-1.1445837

#85 W follows V on 06.04.20 at 6:11 pm

Fair enough… no need to go to cash….but the virus is just getting warmed up…. murica… superspreaders r us.

#86 Howard on 06.04.20 at 6:18 pm

#47 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 4:17 pm
#27 Howard on 06.04.20 at 3:08 pm
Did Stockwell Day seriously get deplatformed from our state-funded broadcaster for saying that, although there are racists in society, Canada is not by and large a racist country?

——————————

Yeah man, like, how could they not, like, see the obvious truth of what he was sayin??

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2020/06/country-responsible-for-the-indian-act-chinese-head-tax-komagata-maru-africville-none-is-too-many-japanese-internment-camps-sixties-scoop-residential-schools-oka-crisis-and-mmiwg-declares-itsel/

————————————————

Right, if we go back a hundred years I’m pretty sure every country on earth would fail the bigotry test.

The only institutional racism and sexism in Canada today is employment equity. Or, within the Liberal Party led by PM Blackface.

#87 Sometimes I think ... on 06.04.20 at 6:19 pm

tinfoil is not really thick enough to read the comments safely …

#88 David on 06.04.20 at 6:27 pm

As far as investments go most of us are either looking for defensive stocks or companies with assets that will rebound quickly. North American energy stocks and the Canadian energy sector have been quite sclerotic for some time. I have had decent results with BP Midstream (BPMP) and Shell Midstream (SHLX) decent undervalued stocks with decent effective dividend yields that fell out of favour in Black April. Still waiting here to see what Warren Buffet does. The Oracle of Omaha turned bearish on American Airlines. The alternative argument being one supposes Warren Buffet may not always be right.

#89 The Limited Sage on 06.04.20 at 6:31 pm

Where are the Earnings to support these Prices? Oh right, Brrr…

#90 Joe on 06.04.20 at 6:33 pm

Welcome back Garth!!

#91 RyYYZ on 06.04.20 at 6:37 pm

“unless Trump loses the election and starts a civil war”

I’m not sure if Garth is taking a poke at Trump here, or some of nuttier conspiracy minded posters here. Maybe both?

Scary thing is, with Trump it’s hard to tell.

#92 Shirl Clarts on 06.04.20 at 6:38 pm

I’m sure if the Feds could somehow figure out how to monetize letting Joe Exotic out of prison, that would be a huge win for the US economy.

#93 Deplorable Dude on 06.04.20 at 6:39 pm

#57 Conan “ I doubt that. I think he has guaranteed a loss in the Senate and probably puts the Republican Party in the dog house for 20 years.”

——————

Think about it. We just had mass rioting and looting in only Democratic controlled cities.

You just had a tonne of liberal citizens and liberal small business owners realise why the 2nd amendment exists, along with the fact that they were abandoned by their Mayors/Governors…..

———

In other news the Lancet just completely retracted the recently published hit job on the ‘Trump pills’ that many countries used to stop their own treatments.

It now appears the purpose of the fraudulent “scientific study”, conducted by a sketchy outfit called Surgisphere – who mysteriously appeared only after President Trump advocated for the treatment, was to weaponize medicine for political purposes.

https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140673620313246?utm_campaign=tlcoronavirus20&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.20 at 6:39 pm

re; CMHC crack down.

“Yup. The Evan Siddall hammer is coming! – Garth”

++++
About bloody time.
Is Evan Siddall dusting off his resume?
After the implied rules changes me-thinks the Real Estate Cartel will be pulling out all the stops to have him nuked.

#95 yorkville renter on 06.04.20 at 6:41 pm

I’m still down 5% from peak… but, not feeling awful like the Spring.

onward!

#96 espressobob on 06.04.20 at 6:42 pm

Round two, harvesting profit. Boring really….

Amateurs never get it. Always played by Mr market.

Bummer.

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.20 at 6:43 pm

@#77 Graphics Girl
“If the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, then why are we still under emergency orders?”

A very good question with Summer Breaks coming and a lot of burned out Nurses and Doctors wanting a well deserved break from the Covid isolation boot camp.

Before a possible resurgence of the Flu in the Fall and Winter.
Quebec nurse are threatening to quit…….

https://www.theguardian.pe.ca/news/world/in-canadas-covid-19-capital-bone-weary-nurses-plead-for-summer-break-455518/

#98 TheNecessaryDorsalMuscles on 06.04.20 at 6:44 pm

#11 dogman01

Modern liberalism is a Taliban style movement:

It will incite racial hatred to create racial harmony. It will riot to create peace. It will ban all ideas outside an ever shrinking Overton Window to create more intellectual freedom. It will revel in its ability to destroy individuals and and their livelihoods in order to “stop hate” with “hate” being defined simply as anything that deviates from their dictates.

Stories like this have made me realize that I have a duty as a human being to do what (very little) I can to not support the power structure in this country and even to weaken it.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.20 at 6:50 pm

#53 Sail away on 06.04.20 at 4:39 pm
#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.20 at 3:44 pm
#146 Sail away on 06.04.20 at 11:05 am
#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.03.20 at 7:00 pm

There are 3 cars with Alberta license plates parked in my hood.
All coming to the land of milk and honey, where rentals are plenty and rents are dropping.

———–

There’s an Austrian immigrant family in my neighbourhood. We talked about Ferlach. And dirndls, of course. Always dirndls.

———–

Can you tell me the last name of the family.
I’ve got a relative in Ferlach. It’s a small place.
He could do some fact checking for me.
Thanks

———–

Oh, the neighbours aren’t from Ferlach, but my favourite side by side shotgun was made there by master gunsmith Josef Hambrusch in 1947.
————————-
Very Trumpian response.
Still, what’s their name and where from Austria did they come.
I’ve got connections everywhere in Austria.
I could help you if you need some references.

#100 Faron on 06.04.20 at 6:51 pm

#65 Deplorable Dude on 06.04.20 at 5:24 pm

Uh, Facebook accounts are free. Twitter bots are easy to program and free. Your CNN article (didn’t think you were the type) explains exactly why the charges were dropped and it was for no lack of evidence. Putin must get a kick out of how easy it is to manipulate people like you.

Check out the film Icarus if you have Netflix. Details how the Russian doping scheme worked over the past 70 years. Very bold and very sophisticated and would have never been detected without evidence from a turncoat. And that’s for pure Putin ego. With US politics, there was Russian skin in the game.

#101 24 Seconds of Silence on 06.04.20 at 6:51 pm

Is it just me but when I read about billions of dollars these days I don’t even flinch any more?

Trillions is becoming the “new norm”.

#102 MF on 06.04.20 at 7:00 pm

#70 Not 1st on 06.04.20 at 5:34 pm

“scamdemic”?

How edgy.

I don’t know what else to say but you’re lost. You’ve gone down the hole and don’t look like you have any way of getting out.

Twitter is not real life. Any normal functioning human being should be able to know that.

MF

#103 Incredulous on 06.04.20 at 7:00 pm

#2 Lee on 06.04.20 at 1:26 pm

None of it will matter when Washington falls this week. The US government can’t handle Antifa, BLM and the rioters. Tonight at 9:00 p.m. on CNN

—————————–

What am i supposed to watch? CNN getting burned to the ground by Antifa and BLM. I’ve already seen that program.

#104 Anthony on 06.04.20 at 7:01 pm

“Well, as this pathetic blog has pointed out, the rich hold assets and the rest hold debt. Those assets have been massively supported by central banks and governments at all levels who chopped interest rates, spent trillions buying up negotiable securities like government and corporate bonds, plus dumped trillions more into the hands of consumers and businesses to replace money lost in wages and profits. Meanwhile all of the consumer and mortgage debt remains to be paid. Just deferred. Still owed. The lenders will be made whole.” – Garth

Right, the rich are bunch of welfare queens. Thanks Garth, I couldn’t agree more.

Now why aren’t you and SailAway and Elevatorfarz and the rest of your cheerleaders shaming them for this like you did the folks who took CERB and maybe didn’t need it?

#105 gfd on 06.04.20 at 7:03 pm

MORTGAGE RULE CHANGES: CMHC Tightens Requirements for Homebuyers

#106 Rick in Victoria on 06.04.20 at 7:08 pm

Markets made a nice bounce from the bottom on March 23rd but closing price on TSX of 15527 today same as the high in December 2016. We still have a long ways to go to break the highs of February this year. Even the Duck, propelled by only 5 stocks couldn’t break through the year’s highs. So, a little early for rejoicing.

#107 Shawn on 06.04.20 at 7:09 pm

Do you seriously think Trump can still win the election? I think we’ll be ice skating in Hell before that happens.

#108 gfd on 06.04.20 at 7:09 pm

MORTGAGE RULE CHANGES: CMHC Tightens Requirements for Homebuyers

Qualifying for a mortgage is about to get harder for anyone who doesn’t have at least a 20 per cent down payment for a home, which is likely to have an outsized effect on first-time buyers.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is tightening its rules to qualify for an insured mortgage.

At least one applicant’s credit scores will need to be 680, up from the previous minimum of 600. To ensure borrowers can keep up with payments, maximum total debt service ratios will be lowered from 44 to 42. Gross debt service ratio drops from 39 to 35.

CMHC also says “non-traditional sources of down payment that increase indebtedness will no longer be treated as equity for insurance purposes.”

In other words, buyers will no longer be able to borrow money for a down payment, which follows a similar move by Bank of Nova Scotia.

CMHC is also suspending refinancing for multi-unit mortgage insurance, unless the money is being used for repairs or reinvestment in housing.

The changes are effective July 1, 2020.

“COVID-19 has exposed long-standing vulnerabilities in our financial markets, and we must act now to protect the economic futures of Canadians,” said Evan Siddall, CMHC’s President and CEO, in a release.

“These actions will protect home buyers, reduce government and taxpayer risk and support the stability of housing markets while curtailing excessive demand and unsustainable house price growth.”

CMHC stopped short of raising the minimum down payment from 5 per cent to 10 per cent after saying it was appropriate two weeks ago during testimony to the House of Commons finance committee. CMHC also said home prices could fall between 9 per cent to 18 per cent in the next 12 months.

#109 Shawn on 06.04.20 at 7:12 pm

This will probably be the 1st time in history that the S&P500 is at record highs (or close to it) and the incumbent president loses the election.

Unemployment isn’t going below 10% before the election. By then the virus and the protests will be in the rear view mirror but the economy will still be weak and unemployment high.

#110 CCPeed on 06.04.20 at 7:14 pm

#9 Mexican mama on 06.04.20 at 1:56 pm

Looking to invest in Chinese growth in China
Could someone recommend a stock for me?

——————————————

Yes, you could try Luckin(LK) . I hear they make a mean “cup of Xi” . No need to thank me.

#111 not 1st on 06.04.20 at 7:22 pm

#99 Faron on 06.04.20 at 6:51 pm

Just like Obama interfered in our election and swayed the re-election of an incompetent, unqualified, racist PM who is currently ushering in the destruction of a once proud G7 country.

I don’t remember any twitter endorsements for trump from Putin.

#112 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 7:23 pm

#85 Howard on 06.04.20 at 6:18 pm
Right, if we go back a hundred years I’m pretty sure every country on earth would fail the bigotry test.

The only institutional racism and sexism in Canada today is employment equity. Or, within the Liberal Party led by PM Blackface.

————————————————

Honest question, what do you mean by “other countries would fail the bigotry test going back 100 years?” I don’t want to jump to conclusions and put words in your mouth.

Could you clarify what you mean by this statement? How does that apply or not apply to the current state of our country?

“The only institutional racism and sexism in Canada today is employment equity. Or, within the Liberal Party led by PM Blackface.”

I agree with that Employment equity is certainly an issue, but it also turn out that our poverty rates and incarceration rates follow similar racial lines like they do in the US, as well as incidents that mirror what happened in the Jim Crow era.

Certainly we did not have slavery to the degree they had in the 1800s deep south USA, and that’s all well and good, but is our slate clean enough that we can declare racism is by and large not a Canadian problem?

As for Trudeau blackface, it was distasteful, and others have been drummed out of their professions for less (ie Stockwell) and that is an injustice. I honestly feel Stockwell should have been afforded the benefit of the doubt after apologizing and promising to try harder, since Trudeau was afforded a much more lenient standard. Stuff like that does demonstrate a problem in the liberal world, where folks can forgive their own, but fail to acknowledge steps their opponents take to be better.

There is not enough room for acknowledging our own faults, asking for forgiveness, and genuinely trying to do better through action. Certainly real hate crime and unrepentant racism should be punished and shunned respectively, but making a gaffe like Stockwell (and many others) did should not immediately ruin his career since he admitted his error and genuinely asked for forgiveness. If he continued to make gaffes after this, then we could all question his sincerity.

Though some would argue that the people in charge should be held to a higher standard, but as you pointed out, Trudeau was given a pass, so there’s the bar.

As it stands there, the stakes are too high for many outside the liberal bubble to admit fault and try to do better.

#113 MF on 06.04.20 at 7:26 pm

6 Herb on 06.04.20 at 5:50 pm

Sorry, MF, you’ve got it wrong there.

“Social media” is where people go to find relevance for themselves and confirmation of their biases in self-selected echo chambers”

-This part I agree with, and this is the most dangerous part.

Anyone who is slightly off kilter is easily manipulated by whatever echo chamber they end up in online. The mentally ill are easy fodder. Anyone who spends the majority of their time online seems to lose touch with any semblance of human beings and reality. Their sick voices get amplified online.

The second part of you’re post I’m only half agreeing with. Msm has a bias, yes, but not all of it. It’s also more fact checked and constrained in what messages it can promote since it’s so out in the open. People complain it may be more slanted to one side of the political spectrum, and it probably is, but it rarely goes as radical as the odd corners of the internet. It is in those corners where literally anything extremely radical can be written, with zero fact checking, and then falsely confirmed and propagated.

MF

#114 Keith on 06.04.20 at 7:28 pm

#100 24 Seconds of Silence

“Is it just me but when I read about billions of dollars these days I don’t even flinch any more?

Trillions is becoming the new norm”

Worrying about billions has been going on for decades, but no one listens.

https://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/a_billion_here_a_billion_there_pretty_soon_youre_talking_real_money

#115 Ronaldo on 06.04.20 at 7:29 pm

#54 Camille on 06.04.20 at 4:44 pm
Congratulations Garth. Take a victory lap you’ve earned it. I think to be a true hippie you need to be more like 70. Being 60 will make you an Alice Cooper glam fan. And 60 year olds didn’t read newspaper Rolling Stone and Whole Earth catalogue. We need to be tidy with the blog.
—————————————————————
I am the oldest of the Boomer generation and did not take part in this event however my younger sister did and she is 67 today. I would put the Hippie age between 67 and 74. I recall seeing the 1st hippies in Vancouver in summer of 1967 along with the Hare Krishna. They would stand on the street corners in their orange robes and chant. Those were interesting times indeed.

#116 cowtown cowboy on 06.04.20 at 7:33 pm

Here in the land of milk and honey…35 deaths outside of long term care facilities(where people basically go to die..) out of a population of about 4.4 million, odds of dying outside of a long term care facility.. 0.0008% I’ll take those odds any day.

Of bigger concern is the gutless pukes ganging up on innocent civilians and gov’ts doing nothing to protect them..I’d love to see Mother Green and her Fighting Machine open up some .50’s on their worthless asses…

#117 Member of the Bored on 06.04.20 at 7:34 pm

Great Canadian literary works of our time….

28 Seconds: A True Story of Addiction, Tragedy, and Hope: Bryant, Michael: 9780670066445: Books – Amazon.ca

24 Seconds: How I went Brain Dead and Fooled the World into thinking I was a Genius: Trudeau, Justin

#118 Ronaldo on 06.04.20 at 7:35 pm

#77 Graphics Girl on 06.04.20 at 5:52 pm
If the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, then why are we still under emergency orders?
——————————————————————
They never were and that is a great question.

#119 Phylis on 06.04.20 at 7:37 pm

#37 BillyBob on 06.04.20 at 3:37 pm
#21 Ronaldo on 06.04.20 at 2:36 pm
#5 Apache indian. on 06.04.20 at 1:41 pm
What about the second wave?
—————————————————————-
Relax. If it’s not worst than the first, nothing to worry about.

On Vancouver Island, since Jan. 1st, there have been 127 cases, 121 recovered, 5 died, 1 in hospital (not ICU)

So, 5 months into the year and 5 deaths. That is 1 per month. That is some pandemic.

==================================================

Yep. Sister is an RN at Vic Gen. Sister-in-law, at Jubilee. They did prepare heavily but the feared projections were very, very wrong.

—————————
Well, at least we are better prepared, plenty of masks and ventilators on hand now. We even know where the Prime Minister will be when broadcasting.

#120 Alphonse Kehaulic on 06.04.20 at 7:42 pm

#77 Graphics Girl

“If the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, then why are we still under emergency orders?”

Because we can never be too careful. Never know when there’s going to be an explosion of infections. All we can do now is wait, patiently, for the Universal Vaccine.

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.20 at 7:49 pm

@#98 Ponzie Stalker
“Very Trumpian response.
Still, what’s their name and where from Austria did they come.
I’ve got connections everywhere in Austria.
I could help you if you need some references.”

++++
Hmmmm.
Perhaps Sail Away values his anonymity?

#122 Nonplused on 06.04.20 at 7:50 pm

Part of the market explanation could be that 10% of the population owns 80-90% of all stocks. That 10% was probably the least affected by the pandemic at least financially, so unless they were speculators they probably didn’t sell. Taking everyone’s favorite billionaire Bill Gates, do you think he started dumping Microsoft shares through all of this? I’d bet he didn’t.

Also the 10% by and large have an army of financial advisors whose job it is to remember the lessons of Nine Eleven, Y2K, the credit crisis, the Asian Contagion and Black Friday. One of those lessons is that the purchasing power of the dollar goes down every time there is a major intervention so the return on cash will be negative. It always has been. Even if inflation is contained cash looses 2% or so per year. The stock market on the other hand has historically done the opposite. Now one could argue that in inflation adjusted terms the gains haven’t been as high, but they are better than zero.

People have a lot of faith in the US dollar, but historically government fiat has been a sure fire loser. Almost all government fiat over history has gone to zero eventually. Gradually at first, and then all at once. Country after country has seen people holding cash lose all of their wealth as the paper becomes meaningless. Even the mighty US dollar has lost 98% of its original purchasing power. Mind you it took 100 years to do so, but still that looks pretty nearly like a complete loss to me. Measured against gold the performance has been even worse.

It is helpful even in times of extreme economic turbulence to keep in mind that a dollar isn’t a real thing any more so than an inch. Only the inch has an agreed upon value. They don’t “print” more inches. Inches are not subject to inflation. Dollars on the other hand, always get smaller. It is by design.

I don’t believe you can have a true deflation in a fiat currency system. You can have bubbles that pop, debt defaults, market crashes, all sorts of things but you are never going to be able to buy more ice cream for a dollar in the future than you could in the past. Houses may collapse in value but they are not going back to the 70’s. If they did the REITs would scoop them all up and rent them out. There is a floor.

Unemployment, strangely, is also inflationary. The Fed looks at the unemployment rate and if it is above 4% they reduce interest rates (which has the affect of drawing into existence more money). This is supposed to “stimulate” the economy, which it does because it makes it cheaper to borrow, so new businesses are formed and more civic projects go ahead. Jobs! But also inflation. That is the price of keeping society civil. Unemployed people are a little hard to control, as we are seeing in the US right now. You don’t want to have too many of them.

#123 45north on 06.04.20 at 7:54 pm

not 1st Trump just slam dunked the Nov election. Wonder what they will try next?

they being the leftist elite

they will try anything

#124 Sail Away on 06.04.20 at 7:54 pm

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.20 at 6:50 pm
#53 Sail away on 06.04.20 at 4:39 pm
#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.20 at 3:44 pm
#146 Sail away on 06.04.20 at 11:05 am
#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.03.20 at 7:00 pm

There are 3 cars with Alberta license plates parked in my hood.
All coming to the land of milk and honey, where rentals are plenty and rents are dropping.

————

There’s an Austrian immigrant family in my neighbourhood. We talked about Ferlach. And dirndls, of course. Always dirndls.

————

Can you tell me the last name of the family.
I’ve got a relative in Ferlach. It’s a small place.
He could do some fact checking for me.
Thanks

————-

Oh, the neighbours aren’t from Ferlach, but my favourite side by side shotgun was made there by master gunsmith Josef Hambrusch in 1947.

————-

Very Trumpian response.
Still, what’s their name and where from Austria did they come.
I’ve got connections everywhere in Austria.
I could help you if you need some references.

————-

Give me a few days; I’ll ask if they’re comfortable with me sharing their personal details with a random angry dude on the internet who seems inordinately interested for some reason.

Good?

#125 Chickenlipps on 06.04.20 at 7:55 pm

Yeah I guess you can brag about the V shaped recovery
it was a awesome bear rally for sure . The fact that the
central banks are willing to torch the world economy
with many multi trillions in monetized debt don’t matter.
Yep you win .

#126 Deplorable Dude on 06.04.20 at 7:55 pm

#104 Phyllis “ Yep. Sister is an RN at Vic Gen. Sister-in-law, at Jubilee. They did prepare heavily but the feared projections were very, very wrong.”

That’s because there were no projections of hospitalisation usage under lockdown, or if they’re were they never released them. They planned for a Northern Italy worst case scenario with no lockdown….but then locked down.

Very sneaky not releasing any death modelling….can’t be held accountable for getting models drastically wrong.

#127 willworkforpickles on 06.04.20 at 7:58 pm

Many peoples current perception of the economy turning around soon is amazingly skewed. Oblivious to the april to june economic quarter steadily shrinking toward an annual rate approaching 40% – and what will be by far, the worst quarterly contraction ever in history.
How is it that so many choose to shield themselves from reality and allow themselves to be lulled into this collective sense of false security/reality.
People at large want to be told what they want to hear. Want to believe what they want to hear.
It works and works and works just fine…until it doesn’t.

#128 You are wrong on 06.04.20 at 8:00 pm

Dear Garth,
I hope you are not seeing a dead cat bounce in the stock market. I also hope that your experience does not turn out like in 1929. Just look at what happened to the Dow after 1929 crash.
.Before this crash, which ruined both corporate and individual wealth, the stock market peaked on Sept. 3, 1929, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at 381.17. The ultimate bottom was reached on July 8, 1932, where the Dow stood at 41.22. From peak to trough, this was a loss of 89.19%.

No depression is coming. – Garth

#129 Herb on 06.04.20 at 8:03 pm

#77 Graphics Girl,

we are still under “emergency orders” because they can’t be stopped without raising questions about why they were imposed in the first place. Ontario yesterday prolonged the lock-down until end-June because 446 new “cases” were discovered in 15,244 lab tests on Monday.

I wonder if people who advise the Government explained that the margin of error of the RT-PCR test (false positives and lack of specificity in identifying only the SARS-CoV-2 virus) is greater than the percentage of new cases discovered in the tested cohort.

An Austrian psychologist a long time ago explained the problem we now have lifting the Corona measures with a little story. A man wandered the streets of Vienna clapping his hands. He was asked what he was doing, and replied that he was clapping his hands “to keep the elephants away.” The questioner said “But I don’t see any elephants!” to which the man replied “That’s why I’m clapping my hands.”

And that’s why the Corona measures haven’t been lifted. Wouldn’t want to have people asking where all those elephants had been.

#130 Ever read ... on 06.04.20 at 8:09 pm

#114 Ronaldo on 06.04.20 at 7:29 pm
I am the oldest of the Boomer generation and did not take part in this event however my younger sister did and she is 67 today. I would put the Hippie age between 67 and 74. I recall seeing the 1st hippies in Vancouver in summer of 1967 along with the Hare Krishna. They would stand on the street corners in their orange robes and chant. Those were interesting times indeed.
—————————————–
Monkey on a stick … good read about the Krishna’s.

#131 Flop... on 06.04.20 at 8:09 pm

I can’t wait to the last 5 years of my working career, when I can’t see anymore, and just don’t give a crap.

Been doing a small renovation on the Westside this week.

I thought the house was fairly old.

The owner told me today it was built in the late 80s.

Some of the prior workmanship is truly horrific.

Not a big fan of cats, and redheads normally rub me the wrong way.

A chubby redhead cat has been sniffing around at lunchtime, and I don’t mind him.

Ozzie had lunch with the Aussie…

M45BC

#132 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.20 at 8:16 pm

#117 Ronaldo on 06.04.20 at 7:35 pm
#77 Graphics Girl on 06.04.20 at 5:52 pm
If the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, then why are we still under emergency orders?
——————————————————————
They never were and that is a great question.
—————–
Took my mother to the hospital the other day.
Emergency was jam-packed.
What you don’t seem to understand is that you have to have more nurses and doctors, just in case there is an major medical emergency.
It takes 4 years to train a nurse and 8 to train a Doctor.
You can’t just pull them out of a hat.
Sometimes the emergency is half full, sometimes it’s overflowing.
Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.

#133 not 1st on 06.04.20 at 8:28 pm

MF, you are about 5 miles behind the curve and don’t even know it. That’s the best analogy I can give for your denial of the facts.

Yes scamdemic. The CV has killed less people than any known tracked cause of death including snake bites. The average age of the departed exceeds the average life expectancy which is 82.

You ate it just like pablum. It was never real.

And yes, that was evident with a little sleuthing about 2 weeks in after the lockdown. Ever notice the MSM give just enough information to scare you but not inform you? That’s why alt media fills in the gaps. You just need to sort a little more chaff to get to the truth but its there. Its not ever going to be there with the MSM reporting.

#134 yorkville renter on 06.04.20 at 8:31 pm

#110 – I can’t tell if that’s a serious point, or a point in jest… I’m not saying it’s untrue, it’s just so meaningless.

#135 Sail Away on 06.04.20 at 8:50 pm

#103 Anthony on 06.04.20 at 7:01 pm

“Well, as this pathetic blog has pointed out, the rich hold assets and the rest hold debt. Those assets have been massively supported by central banks and governments at all levels who chopped interest rates, spent trillions buying up negotiable securities like government and corporate bonds, plus dumped trillions more into the hands of consumers and businesses to replace money lost in wages and profits. Meanwhile all of the consumer and mortgage debt remains to be paid. Just deferred. Still owed. The lenders will be made whole.” – Garth

Right, the rich are bunch of welfare queens. Thanks Garth, I couldn’t agree more.

Now why aren’t you and SailAway and Elevatorfarz and the rest of your cheerleaders shaming them for this like you did the folks who took CERB and maybe didn’t need it?

—————–

You may want to be a bit careful there, A.

#136 Tim123 on 06.04.20 at 8:51 pm

The market has been great since the lows on March 23rd. It has been largely a market that wants to go up. I will comment on the US markets as that is where I trade stocks and options (long and short). The S&P 500 is at 3112 so it is around 7-8% from the all time highs. Now is the time for a bit of caution as the valuations are stretched right now so the upside is less than the downside so I am keeping that in mind. I have taken some profits on the re-opening trade. I have core positions that I will keep but I am limiting the amount of cash to commit into the markets until a correction happens because the risk vs reward is not there. I am still doing daily short term trades but am being very disciplined to take profits and also to take losses and move on if the trade does not work. I might look for some cheap insurance to hedge my bets and also to profit if the market goes down. It’s going to be a great year in my opinion, at least for me.

#137 VicPaul on 06.04.20 at 9:01 pm

#11 dogman01 on 06.04.20 at 2:06 pm
Today’s Politically Correct enforcement mechanism.

….(read full text above)

How can anyone purport we have Freedom of Speech in this society? This is an antithesis to the Western Tradition of debating ideas, there is one narrative and very few have the resources or are prepared for the consequences of uttering a challenge to that narrative.
…(read full text above#11)

Fortunately our host does exercise a willingness to express freely on some controversial topics, and he also has a lot to lose.

I used to think older people just had life Wisdom, but I suspect they also have the freedom from consequences and can call it like they see it.

*********

Thank you Dogman01 for your astute observations.

M56BC

#138 IHCTD9 on 06.04.20 at 9:07 pm

#111 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 7:23 pm
#85 Howard on 06.04.20 at 6:18 pm
Right, if we go back a hundred years I’m pretty sure every country on earth would fail the bigotry test.

The only institutional racism and sexism in Canada today is employment equity. Or, within the Liberal Party led by PM Blackface.

————————————————

Honest question, what do you mean by “other countries would fail the bigotry test going back 100 years?” I don’t want to jump to conclusions and put words in your mouth.

Could you clarify what you mean by this statement? How does that apply or not apply to the current state of our country?
—-

Uhh, I think it’s pretty clear that Howards’ statement was in reference to your links’ very dated examples of Canadian racism.

Canada does not do any of the stuff listed in that link in the current day.

Should we even bother fixing anything if folks are just going to keep bitching about it like it’s still happening 20 years+ later?

#139 kingston boy on 06.04.20 at 9:07 pm

@#27 Howard on 06.04.20 at 3:08 pm
Did Stockwell Day seriously get deplatformed from our state-funded broadcaster for saying that, although there are racists in society, Canada is not by and large a racist country?

The guy is tone-deaf.
He should know better.

#140 John on 06.04.20 at 9:08 pm

You don’t bottom a recession at 147.8% market cap to GDP.

#141 kingston boy on 06.04.20 at 9:09 pm

@#101 MF on 06.04.20 at 7:00 pm
#70 Not 1st on 06.04.20 at 5:34 pm

“scamdemic”?

How edgy.

I don’t know what else to say but you’re lost. You’ve gone down the hole and don’t look like you have any way of getting out.

Twitter is not real life. Any normal functioning human being should be able to know that.

MF

twitter is the bathroom wall of the internet.

#142 Howard on 06.04.20 at 9:09 pm

#111 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 7:23 pm

I mentioned a hundred years ago because the satirical Beaverton article that YOU linked, to somehow “prove” that Canada is racist, mentions things that mostly occurred 70-100+ years ago.

What Stockwell Day said wasn’t a gaffe. It was a completely reasonable statement.

And I don’t think you understand what Employment Equity is and exactly who it discriminates against.

#143 Howard on 06.04.20 at 9:15 pm

The CMHC statement sounds like a nothing burger. Everything announced has a workaround and they cowardly backed off on raising the DP requirement to 10%.

#144 Keith in Rio on 06.04.20 at 9:17 pm

The stock market is not the economy. The economy is not recovering any time soon, and it won’t any time later, either.

It is not representative of what is really happening on main street. Never has been since the 1970’s…..truth be told.

#145 Bobby Bittman on 06.04.20 at 9:18 pm

Today’s blog post is magnificent.

Qu’ils mangent de la brioche!

#146 David on 06.04.20 at 9:23 pm

People being value investors is actually a good thing. A disciplined use of investment dollars still matters. It does not matter whether it is a Loonie or a Billion.

#147 dogman01 on 06.04.20 at 9:27 pm

#111 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 7:23 pm

I need to read this a few times and ponder. I think it is good.

Just to continue the concepts:

“For me privacy is the right to think ideas that aren’t fully formed, to say things aloud without having everybody knowing what I’ve said, to go to a place and try a thing without having to commit to it being part of my record forever” – Cory Doctorow

“To suppress free speech is a double wrong, it violates the rights of the hearer as well as those of the speaker” – Frederick Douglass

#148 Doug in London on 06.04.20 at 9:37 pm

@Thomas, post #32:
Yes, you do need planning and actions. During the last stock market drop, when Boxing Week came early, that was the time to cash in bond funds and use the cash to buy stocks and equity ETFs. In 2019, when stocks recovered, that was the time to take some profits and buy back into bond funds. This year, when stocks were on sale, was the time to reverse the flow again and sell bonds and buy stocks. As markets continue to recover, it will be time to reverse the flow again by taking profits in stocks and buying some bond funds. That’s what rebalancing is. If everyone did this, the system would be more stable.
I think of it like the St. John River in New Brunswick or the Moose River in Ontario. During high tide the river flows inland, and it flows out when the tide is low.

#149 Fused on 06.04.20 at 9:38 pm

This events are unreal, first December 18 sale and March 20 sale ,these two events have pretty well doubled my money.
I was telling people to buy AAL,CCL and USO then and all people were saying was how it will be a new paradigm for the world, no more travel by jet or boat, no more need for oil either.
Buffet is not always right, money to be made if one has the tolerance to do so, I posted how Ericsson and Nokia were going to be the dominate 5G players and just watch.
Now is the time to start picking up smaller oil companies that are ripe for take over by the big boys, starting to hear that they are getting ready to consolidate the industry. Well service companies are at great valuations also.
Sail Away look at MEG energy!

#150 Anthony on 06.04.20 at 9:44 pm

Still no response from Garth or his cheerleaders. Tell me again, why a stock market propped up by government and central bank bailouts is okay?

The sycophants here spend all their time harping about how the housing market is detached from reality but cheerleading a stock market approaching all time highs with double digit unemployment, large and small businesses failing, airlines not flying, cruise ships docked, movie theatres, restaurants, malls shuttered, etc.

Let’s try being honest now, it’s all pogey, and you guys only have a problem when working people take it.

#151 the Jaguar on 06.04.20 at 9:46 pm

@#121 Nonplused on 06.04.20 at 7:50 pm

Oh good. Nonplused has climbed back inside from the ledge he was on momentarily. I see you are yourself again and I value your posts.

#152 -=withwings=- on 06.04.20 at 9:47 pm


that Day’s statements don’t align with TELUS values made me wonder: did they mean TELUS values don’t include free speech or holding an informed opinion about the nation of your birth?

What he said was wrong, ignorant and *exactly* the problem the americans are dealing with now, and in denial from. It is a fact that we, good ole Canada, were systemically racist and still carry that legacy. The Toronto police service wasn’t wandering around carding 1000’s of white people, just a few years ago, were they?

You are free to say stupid things if you want, and you can win stupid prizes as a result. That’s called freedom of speech.

@#37 billy bob

Yep. Sister is an RN at Vic Gen. Sister-in-law, at Jubilee. They did prepare heavily but the feared projections were very, very wrong.

what part of ‘prepared heavily’ did you not understand?

#153 Shark Tank on 06.04.20 at 10:00 pm

For this chart to represent “recovery “ we need to see a higher high. As it is we can easily surmise that the lower high is indicating a longer term fail. There’s a tsunami of bad news being held off bravely by stimulus, the bad news is still as powerful as before the stimulus. What happens to the recovery when stimulus is pulled away over the next few months? CERB , Mortgage deferral, credit holiday, pmts , hydro hills etc etc etc. All waiting to crush the consumer unless government is planning another 300 billion Hail Mary in Canada? Will landlords forego another three months tent? Will collection stay away from the doorbell ? Save your optimism for the cheerleaders. The last quarter numbers are giving false hope because the close quarter is a collapsing wall of blood. At best a few businesses have partially reopened. 8 million people still need CERB and the entire credit holiday or they’re screwed. Screwed. Hopium? We’ve covered that.

#154 IHCTD9 on 06.04.20 at 10:13 pm

#124 Sail Away on 06.04.20 at 7:54 pm

Give me a few days; I’ll ask if they’re comfortable with me sharing their personal details with a random angry dude on the internet who seems inordinately interested for some reason.

Not good enough SA.

Ponzie wants the ******* info, right ******* now! [Steve Martin voice].

#155 Felix on 06.04.20 at 10:15 pm

Mr Turner is correct, the markets are recovering nicely. Those who held and did not panic sell will do well.

This is not some dogawful dead-dog bounce.

#156 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 10:32 pm

#142 Howard on 06.04.20 at 9:09 pm
#111 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 7:23 pm

I mentioned a hundred years ago because the satirical Beaverton article that YOU linked, to somehow “prove” that Canada is racist, mentions things that mostly occurred 70-100+ years ago.

What Stockwell Day said wasn’t a gaffe. It was a completely reasonable statement.

And I don’t think you understand what Employment Equity is and exactly who it discriminates against

—————————————-

Sorry, what made the statement completely reasonable? I’m hearing a lot from the other side, so it could be skewing my perspective.

And I dont think I’m following with regards to what you are sayong regarding who employment equity is discriminating against. Could you clear it up for me?

#157 Michael in-north-york on 06.04.20 at 10:33 pm

Stockwell Day should have refused to resign. And if they fired him, he should have sued for damages. He could win easily.

#158 Drunken Stupor on 06.04.20 at 10:35 pm

So why are we still closed? When can i go to restaurant and when can we travel out of country???

#159 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 10:39 pm

#142 Howard on 06.04.20 at 9:09 pm
#111 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 7:23 pm

I mentioned a hundred years ago because the satirical Beaverton article that YOU linked, to somehow “prove” that Canada is racist, mentions things that mostly occurred 70-100+ years ago.

What Stockwell Day said wasn’t a gaffe. It was a completely reasonable statement.

And I don’t think you understand what Employment Equity is and exactly who it discriminates against

—————————————-

I dont think I’m understanding who you’re saying employment equity is discriminating against. I want to fully understand what’s happening to people. Could you clear it up for me?

#160 DON on 06.04.20 at 10:46 pm

The stock market got a big fat welfare payment. Things are good.

That graph also looks also like one half of a W, just to be a contrarian. I take it the Feds can stop buying now?

Anyone know of a good financial advisor on Van Island? Trying to source one as my contact just informed me he is retiring and moving to the equator. Tired of the damp went cold in Hawaii of the North I guess. Good for him though.

#161 DON on 06.04.20 at 11:13 pm

#135 Sail Away on 06.04.20 at 8:50 pm

#103 Anthony on 06.04.20 at 7:01 pm

“Well, as this pathetic blog has pointed out, the rich hold assets and the rest hold debt. Those assets have been massively supported by central banks and governments at all levels who chopped interest rates, spent trillions buying up negotiable securities like government and corporate bonds, plus dumped trillions more into the hands of consumers and businesses to replace money lost in wages and profits. Meanwhile all of the consumer and mortgage debt remains to be paid. Just deferred. Still owed. The lenders will be made whole.” – Garth

Right, the rich are bunch of welfare queens. Thanks Garth, I couldn’t agree more.

Now why aren’t you and SailAway and Elevatorfarz and the rest of your cheerleaders shaming them for this like you did the folks who took CERB and maybe didn’t need it?

—————–

You may want to be a bit careful there, A.
********************

For asking a question about a fed buying spree? Or was it the manner in which the question was asked. What exactly does ‘you may want to be a bit careful there’ mean?

#162 TurnerNation on 06.04.20 at 11:21 pm

#78 Graphics Girl Ontario remains locked down to further break the morals and finances of small business. Communism 101. UBI awaits them.
Local Media reporting Toronto is being boarded up ahead of the Globalists unleashing their rioters this weekend.
I mean they’re not even hiding it.

As I said for weeks every system we counted on has been inverted against us. Witness interim Green party leader. I suspect the former one was to sane to go along with these marching orders:
………..
https://twitter.com/JoAnnRobertsHFX
Green Party Interim Leader
Jun 2 – Fellow white women, we need to step up. Stop calling the BLM protests “looting” and “rioting”.
Repeat after me:
There is no comfortable way to fight oppression.
What’s happening across the US and Canada is valid. right. and necessary. Get on board.

#163 DON on 06.04.20 at 11:31 pm

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.20 at 6:39 pm

re; CMHC crack down.

“Yup. The Evan Siddall hammer is coming! – Garth”

++++
About bloody time.
Is Evan Siddall dusting off his resume?
After the implied rules changes me-thinks the Real Estate Cartel will be pulling out all the stops to have him nuked.
************

I could be wrong, but didn’t he already announce he is leaving soon?

#164 T-Rev on 06.04.20 at 11:42 pm

I dunno, Gartho. I feel like this one might just be different. Not the stock recovery…that was a given. I myself am within 2pct of the pre-corona high, didn’t sell a thing during the dip except some bonds, to dump into equities, once a bit early when the Sp500 was down 15pct, and once again close to the bottom. I rationalized this attempt at market timing as re-balancing, but it worked so meh. And not the virus; by the time we were in week 2-3 of the shutdown the data from Europe was clear that the virus itself was a nothingburger that was only dangerous to the old or sick, and politicians were reacting out of fear of the panicked public, not out of fear of what the science was saying.

What’s different is that we have now institutionalized bailouts and entitlements for all, regardless of need, and essentially created a system that absolves people of any personal responsibility for their financial actions, and protects them from the repercussions of their past decisions. Not sure what this will do to our capitalist system long term, but the outlook ain’t great from my seat. Long term, taxes will swell, productivity decline, labor force participation will decline, and return on capital will become lower with more risk as government works actively to de-incentivize risk taking and industriousness . I’m not so bullish on the Maple because of this, but I’m still willing to bet on America. I guess that’s what I see as different- sustained, chronic underperformance of the Canadian economy; fewer jobs opportunities for all, especially young people; and a lower standard of living as a result. I don’t think the average beaver knows it’s coming, but while the government cheese will continue to flow, don’t expect the same level of education, healthcare, and public infrastructure you have now. The money is now going to go to beer, chips, and darts for the masses, and to protect them from their own decisions.

#165 NFN_NLN on 06.04.20 at 11:44 pm

#6 Chris on 06.04.20 at 1:45 pm
hmmm

Druckenmiller, Paul Singer, Sam Zell, Warren Buffett, Mark Cuban, Gundlach, Icahn, Tudor Jones, etc etc
….none are bullish or buying into this bounce.

There’s nothing left to buy into now except NCL, CCL, SPG, … Everything else has recovered.

I remember when Buffet sold of “some” airline stocks to “get below the 10% threshold” he said. Then Delta (DAL) kept skimming $21-23 but never broke out of that band as he was secretly unloading.

He bought at $44+ and sold at ~$22. As he was selling off in fear I was buying. I bought and sold DAL (4) times as it bounced back and forth predictably. I thought I was going to eat turds when the bottom dropped out and it hit $19. I double downed and it’s at $32 today. I think I’ll hold until $44 just so I can say “I bought when Buffet sold and sold when Buffet bought”.

DAL, ERI, MGM, CZR, WYNN, BLMN, DRI, PLAY, IMO, TD, RY, SPY… where was Buffet?

Biggest loser… CPD, I doubt I’ll ever get that money back. Biggest regret. Next biggest XRE… hoping that recovers one day.

#166 Old Ron the Realtor on 06.04.20 at 11:46 pm

I will throw my Cassandra into the ring.

The recovery will be “Camel Back Shaped” (Dromedary not Bactrian)

That is: upward, which started in the last week of March, followed by steep downward fall which will retest the March 23 bottom. The downward trend could start early fall, but more likely after the US election regardless of the results.

#167 Al on 06.05.20 at 12:05 am

“When the chips are down you want an SOB in your corner to go after the lawless and corrupt.”

Trump is not gonna arrest himself.

#168 n1tro on 06.05.20 at 12:09 am

Had a virtual all hands meeting today. Topic du jour? “We’re sorry for being white and not understanding what it’s like to be black in these troubling times.” We were treated with a short clip of what white privilege was. Anyone who is troubled by recent events, especially if you are black, was encouraged to take a company paid mental day off. Is it like this at other big companies??

I don’t think I will survive very long in my woke company.

#169 cramar on 06.05.20 at 12:11 am

The news in Windsor carried a story about a nightmare tenant renting an upstairs of a house. They party all night and toss garbage and drug needles all over the property, making it hell for the lady tenant downstairs. The landlord owner of the house has been fined several times for trash on the property thrown there by his tenant. He cannot evict them, and he gets fined thousands of dollars for his tenant’s filthy habits. And they don’t even have to pay rent if they decide not to.

There is no way, that anybody who is a landlord in Ontario can be successful anymore. The government is totally against you! Insanity reins! What was up is down, and what was down is now up!

#170 n1tro on 06.05.20 at 12:16 am

#150 Anthony on 06.04.20 at 9:44 pm
Still no response from Garth or his cheerleaders. Tell me again, why a stock market propped up by government and central bank bailouts is okay?
——
Don’t hate the player, hate the game. Better yet, learn the rules and join the ride.

#171 Sussy Davidovich on 06.05.20 at 12:35 am

DELETED

#172 Balmuto on 06.05.20 at 12:36 am

“#133 not 1st on 06.04.20 at 8:28 pm

The CV has killed less people than any known tracked cause of death including snake bites.”

Er, no. Not in the U.S. anyways. Not even close:

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/snakes/default.html

“ It has been estimated that 7,000–8,000 people per year receive venomous bites in the United States, and about 5 of those people die.”

Nice try.

#173 Chas on 06.05.20 at 12:57 am

How is Stockwell Day qualified today be on the board of anything? That’s what I thought!

#174 Longterm on 06.05.20 at 1:10 am

#9 Mexican mama on 06.04.20 at 1:56 pm

Check out the ETF: FXI

#175 Amok on 06.05.20 at 1:14 am

Anthony
You are my new GreaterFool hero.

-#150
“””Still no response from Garth or his cheerleaders. Tell me again, why a stock market propped up by government and central bank bailouts is okay?

The sycophants here spend all their time harping about how the housing market is detached from reality but cheerleading a stock market approaching all time highs with double digit unemployment, large and small businesses failing, airlines not flying, cruise ships docked, movie theatres, restaurants, malls shuttered, etc.

Let’s try being honest now, it’s all pogey, and you guys only have a problem when working people take it.“””

Let’s try being honest.
When you’re rich, white, sitting at the computer clicking stock purchases, scamming the system, and benefitting from governments propping up the stock market — you’re a hero. When you’re a worker who has lost their job and relying on EI — you’re a bum, a loser and a problem.

WHY?

#176 Sky on 06.05.20 at 3:40 am

LOL. Video of the investor antigarth:

Best comment – “I’m investing in government-backed panic and fear…billions of people are buying that sh*t! Ka-Ching”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBNNqKYzeJM

__________________________________________

Today’s Emmy for best international virtue signal goes to Minneapolis mayor, Jacob Frey. T2’s got some serious competition on his hands.

Best comment : “I was so emotional watching this tearful farewell to this human who was an example of how to live your life. Then I realized it wasn’t for David Dorn, the retired police captain murdered by looters & nobody gives a sh*t about.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vph7pc0vFA

#177 Sky on 06.05.20 at 4:02 am

Deplorable Dude on 06.04.20 at 12:04 pm

” So a week ago being outside was enough to kill someone’s grandma…but now in the US I’m watching medical staff outside clapping hordes of ‘protestors’….

Lol…..what’s the next shiny thing gonna be? We haven’t had aliens yet……”

******************************************

Things are beyond nuts. The wheels are spinning but the hamsters died.

How crazy are they? With all the hounds of Hell going for his jugular, Trump’s best option at this point would probably be to steal Air Force One and land in Russia for permanent asylum. Maybe share a diet coke with Edward Snowden.

#178 Sail Away on 06.05.20 at 6:37 am

#161 DON on 06.04.20 at 11:13 pm
#135 Sail Away on 06.04.20 at 8:50 pm

#103 Anthony on 06.04.20 at 7:01 pm

—————–

Right, the rich are bunch of welfare queens. Thanks Garth, I couldn’t agree more.

Now why aren’t you and SailAway and Elevatorfarz and the rest of your cheerleaders shaming them for this like you did the folks who took CERB and maybe didn’t need it?

—————–

You may want to be a bit careful there, A.

—————–

For asking a question about a fed buying spree? Or was it the manner in which the question was asked. What exactly does ‘you may want to be a bit careful there’ mean?

—————–

Let’s leave it open to interpretation and see where this topsy turvy ride takes us. That’ll be more fun.

#179 Wrk.dover on 06.05.20 at 6:43 am

Lot of giddy glee in last nights posting!

USA totally FUBAR and all the fed will do is help those whom need no help, ie backstopping the markets to new record highs.

My soul is not for sale.

Therefore, I’m passing on the opportunity to participate for the same reason Garth Turner thinks those not needing CERB but are eligible should stay out of that bail out too.

I’m holding insured cash in the bank, thank you.

Sounds like the voice of the bitter. – Garth

#180 The real Kip (Ret) on 06.05.20 at 6:53 am

So Wall St. romps while Main St. bleeds. And the $4-trillion bill for it? We’ll, that goes to Main St. Hardly something to brag about.

I see no evidence of bragging. This is a financial site. People come here for information on improving their situation. The advice to stay invested was correct. You have stated on this blog that you have no financial assets. So we should care what you think…why? – Garth

#181 Bytor the Snow Dog on 06.05.20 at 6:59 am

#77 Herb on 06.04.20 at 5:50 pm sez:
“#49 MF,

Sorry, MF, you’ve got it wrong there.

“Social media” is where people go to find relevance for themselves and confirmation of their biases in self-selected echo chambers.

What you actually mean is “alternative media”, where people go to penetrate the universal fog of propaganda spread by the MSM and look for meaning.”
——————————————————
Well put.

#182 Do we have all the facts on 06.05.20 at 7:34 am

The optimistic vision of a V shaped recovery of a representative basket of equities has very little relevance to the current state of the Canadian economy.

For starters close to 60% of Canadian GDP is driven by domestic consumption. Given the substantial increase in unemployment over the past three months and the shift to a much tighter credit environment the hope that pent up demand for goods and services will kick start an economic recovery is just that, a fingers crossed hope supported by a few prayers. Debt helped get us into this dilemma so it is doubtful that additional debt will pave the way out.

Our various levels of government consume another 20% of Canadian GDP and given recent events there is little doubt that their voracious appetites will consume even a greater share of GDP in the years to come. Unfortunately a substantial portion of consumption by Governments is being financed by the assumption of additional debt and servicing that additional debt reduces the funds available to invest in economic growth. Vicious cycle that!!

In the past close to 20% of Canadian GDP was consumed to support investment in longer term assets such as infrastructure, commercial and industrial buildings and housing. CMHC has projected that housing starts in 2020 could decline by as much as 50% and that decline by itself could lower total GDP in 2020 by 4 % or more. CMHC have also projected up to a 20% decline in the number of dwellings sold in 2020 and the impact of reduced residential sales on Canadian GDP could exceed $20 billion.

Do optimists in the crowd see commercial and industrial construction in 2020 coming close to activity in 2019. The possibility of hundreds of thousands of square feet of vacant office, commercial, and industrial space has emerged from the Covid-19 smoke and the economic fallout remains to be measured.

The flagellant actions of governments around the world have had a serious impact on the Canadian economy and we cannot afford to base our economic recovery on a belief that a return to pre-Covid levels is just a matter of time or introduction of a vaccine.

#183 Phylis on 06.05.20 at 8:22 am

#133 not 1st on 06.04.20 at 8:28 pm
…….. Ever notice the MSM give just enough information to scare you but not inform you? That’s why alt media fills in the gaps. You just need to sort a little more chaff to get to the truth but its there. Its not ever going to be there with the MSM reporting.

….yes and articles had a premium of space to fill on a page vs the ads. Now for the cost of a few bytes the articles don’t need trimming. Why the withholding of information? Lazy reporting? Maximizing click bait? Returning eyeballs? Pandering to low intelligence? Is this what qualifies as maximizing profits? Maybe it’s just apathy towards reporting the truth. Too much time is spent organizing content rather than concentrating on the quality of the content.

#184 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.20 at 8:22 am

@#104 Anthony
“Now why aren’t you and SailAway and Elevatorfarz and the rest of your cheerleaders shaming them for this …”

++++

Its truly sad when the uninformed rabble( you) consider people who have no debt (me)…..rich…..

I am not “rich”.
I just have no debt and a few investments accumulated after 40 YEARS of working and slowly saving so that I wont have to depend solely on the govt teat when I eventually retire ……if that is “rich”….. then god help all the mewling, grasping, financial illiterates (you) .

The govt teat is running dry and even if you steal from the “rich” it will still…. run….dry.
I hear Trudeau just gave more billions away to seniors.
A one time “gift” on July 1st as it were.
Happy Canada day every one.
The country will truly be bankrupt soon enough if our financially inept gadfly leader continues at his daily pace of showering “trinkets and baubles” for the happy children.

Where are the Conservatives in opposition?
Sheer? MacKay? Anyone?
Their silence is deafening…….

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.05.20 at 8:35 am

@#163 DON
“I could be wrong, but didn’t he already announce he is leaving soon?”

+++

I do believe you are correct and you earn a very rare Golden Fartzy Award for getting me to admit I was incorrect.( “wrong” sounds so negative in these pc times, dont you think?).
Anywho.
I’m surprised that Siddall is allowed to “nuke and pave” before he leaves… but maybe he’s been asked to do it BECAUSE he is leaving.
“Falling on his sword” as it were.
That way the Libs have someone to point the blame at long after they have left the building…….

#186 Headhunter on 06.05.20 at 8:47 am

Where are the Conservatives in opposition?
Sheer? MacKay? Anyone?
Their silence is deafening…….
——————————————–

Needs to be said.. “controlled opposition” nothing else makes sense..

#187 Headhunter on 06.05.20 at 8:53 am

#170 n1tro on 06.05.20 at 12:16 am
#150 Anthony on 06.04.20 at 9:44 pm
Still no response from Garth or his cheerleaders. Tell me again, why a stock market propped up by government and central bank bailouts is okay?
——
Don’t hate the player, hate the game. Better yet, learn the rules and join the ride.

—————————————
haha time for the market is a comn its actually good whats happening in the stock market.. its waking people up!

Disconnect between Main St and Wall St is just too big to ignore now. Even for “normal people”

#188 IHCTD9 on 06.05.20 at 8:56 am

#168 n1tro on 06.05.20 at 12:09 am
Had a virtual all hands meeting today. Topic du jour? “We’re sorry for being white and not understanding what it’s like to be black in these troubling times.” We were treated with a short clip of what white privilege was. Anyone who is troubled by recent events, especially if you are black, was encouraged to take a company paid mental day off. Is it like this at other big companies??

I don’t think I will survive very long in my woke company.

— ——

Your company might just be covering its azz. If the job pays, just roll with it. I know a few folks who have primo 6 figure Private sector and govy jobs and pensions – they have to endure all this pc garbage too.

They deal because of the pay, comes with the package. They actually put effort into forgetting the “PC training” the second it is over – for the sake of their sanity.

Alternately, you could raise hell and ask “what about brown people!?” “Why do you hate us?!” You know, “play the game”.

Might be a day off with pay in there for you too! :)

#189 Dharma Bum on 06.05.20 at 9:00 am

The most serious crime one can commit in Canada today is to openly admit that one is not politically correct.
If you attempt to debate the currently popular notions of what constitutes “social justice”, you are automatically labelled as an offender.
This is no different that Mccarthyism . You are guilty because “we say you are”.
The social justice warriors infecting today’s society, with the support of the virtue signalling and pandering government, are the thought police of our time.
It has been said that “you can’t legislate thought”.
Trudeau and his SJW thugs will prove otherwise, though.
All racists who keep their mouths shut, keep their opinions to themselves, keep their thoughts to themselves, and act nicely and kindly towards others, while continuing to harbour racist thoughts and feelings, are still racists, and will be hunted down and punished.
Guess what?
That’s everyone.
Last man standing can lock himself in jail, and throw away the key.
We are a nation of hypocrites, led by the king of hypocrites.

#190 Stone on 06.05.20 at 9:01 am

#177 Sail Away on 06.05.20 at 6:37 am
#161 DON on 06.04.20 at 11:13 pm
#135 Sail Away on 06.04.20 at 8:50 pm

#103 Anthony on 06.04.20 at 7:01 pm

—————–

Right, the rich are bunch of welfare queens. Thanks Garth, I couldn’t agree more.

Now why aren’t you and SailAway and Elevatorfarz and the rest of your cheerleaders shaming them for this like you did the folks who took CERB and maybe didn’t need it?

—————–

You may want to be a bit careful there, A.

—————–

For asking a question about a fed buying spree? Or was it the manner in which the question was asked. What exactly does ‘you may want to be a bit careful there’ mean?

—————–

Let’s leave it open to interpretation and see where this topsy turvy ride takes us. That’ll be more fun.

———

Well, well. Sail Away becomes the internet police. Now that is rich.

#191 IHCTD9 on 06.05.20 at 9:08 am

#185 Headhunter on 06.05.20 at 8:47 am
Where are the Conservatives in opposition?
Sheer? MacKay? Anyone?
Their silence is deafening…….
——————————————–

Needs to be said.. “controlled opposition” nothing else makes sense..

——

It’s Canada, I would not be one bit surprised to see the Cons approval ratings plunge if they were to oppose any of these Trudeau handouts. They probably know that.

One look at Scheers’ platform last election tells you all you need to know…

#192 TurnerNation on 06.05.20 at 9:14 am

CMHC! Been posting here diabolical like claims for weeks now, like “September is harvest season, the Crown Bankers are using the Crown Virus to take back Crown Land.”
As in, foreclosures.

And this gem not two days ago..yes new credit score limits via CMHC are here:

…….
TurnerNation on 06.03.20 at 5:04 pm
In order to buy and sell you will require the Mark.
Very likely this will be your Credit Score #.

Those defaulting on their rent payments; deferring mortgages; defrauding CERB. All that might hit the credit reporting. Add those to the actual mortgage and car lease, toy lease, small business defaults to follow.

Now the dance begins: those who may get credit, those who cannot. The next five years. Those with the Mark of good credit can vultch”

#193 Rakiki on 06.05.20 at 9:20 am

Thank you Garth for the wise advice over the past couple of months. We leveraged home equity and increased our borrow to invest loan in March. It could have gone bad of course, but valuations were too low to ignore. We also generated some tax losses that will erase cap gains for the past three years and bring in a nice refund for 2020. The only question mark right now is the switch from broad market XIC to low volatility ZLB, it remains to be seen if that will pan out. Perhaps during wave 2 of the virus in the Fall.

#194 Sail Away on 06.05.20 at 9:24 am

#189 Stone on 06.05.20 at 9:01 am
#177 Sail Away on 06.05.20 at 6:37 am
#161 DON on 06.04.20 at 11:13 pm
#135 Sail Away on 06.04.20 at 8:50 pm

#103 Anthony on 06.04.20 at 7:01 pm

—————–

Right, the rich are bunch of welfare queens. Thanks Garth, I couldn’t agree more.

Now why aren’t you and SailAway and Elevatorfarz and the rest of your cheerleaders shaming them for this like you did the folks who took CERB and maybe didn’t need it?

—————–

You may want to be a bit careful there, A.

—————–

For asking a question about a fed buying spree? Or was it the manner in which the question was asked. What exactly does ‘you may want to be a bit careful there’ mean?

—————–

Let’s leave it open to interpretation and see where this topsy turvy ride takes us. That’ll be more fun.

————–

Well, well. Sail Away becomes the internet police. Now that is rich.

————–

You may want to be a bit careful there, S.

#195 David Hawke on 06.05.20 at 9:29 am

Anyone thinking that things will return to normal is loonier than demented donnie tRump!

Sky posted his best option “How crazy are they? With all the hounds of Hell going for his jugular, Trump’s best option at this point would probably be to steal Air Force One and land in Russia for permanent asylum. Maybe share a diet coke with Edward Snowden.”

#196 The real Kip (Ret) on 06.05.20 at 9:30 am

“I see no evidence of bragging. This is a financial site. People come here for information on improving their situation. The advice to stay invested was correct. You have stated on this blog that you have no financial assets. So we should care what you think…why? – Garth”

I have 44 years invested in a DB pension. They invest in a diversified portfolio including US Equities similar to what you advise. The fact markets have bounced simply means I won’t be getting a letter stating my benefits have been cut. I guess I can thank the US taxpayer for that too. Nothing to brag about.

As stated, you have no useful contribution to make to this discussion. – Garth

#197 YVR Expat on 06.05.20 at 9:54 am

#9 Mexican mama on 06.04.20 at 1:56 pm
Looking to invest in Chinese growth in China
Could someone recommend a stock for me?
************************

Say it with me, “US listed, Chinese companies are a scam!”

#198 TurnerNation on 06.05.20 at 10:10 am

Insurance companies. I’ve been posting there wondering what role they will take in the New System. Denying or expensive coverage – forcing people off their land or businesses? Stay tuned…

“Streetwise newsletter: Reopening companies face growing …www.theglobeandmail.com › business › article-streetwise-newsletter-r…
Streetwise newsletter: Reopening companies face growing liability insurance premiums due to coronavirus risk. Published 1 hour ago Updated June 4, 2020.”

— as with the plan err Pandemic today every company you know is emailing you with their BLM plans right? Like the day the world shut down they ALL emailed you about ‘flattening the curve’.
Both times, teary heartfelt messages from the CEOs.
The noose tightens in this lockstep, co-ordinated global action.
Still can’t see it ? Check your email today.
This is WW3 – for our minds.

#199 Eks dee Sipal on 06.05.20 at 10:18 am

To Dogman: White privileged folks can keep “debating” if they want, meanwhile a majority consensus has been reached that something has to continue to be done about the obvious systemic racism in every single pocket of this great country. To your other points: “require anonymity”. Well, now you know how it feels. No one is suppressing free speech. Just don’t spew your racist free speech on a public platform. Because that’s not cool.

To not1st: the thugs who started the looting have been shown to be organized right-wing fascists agent provocateurs. You are confusing the peaceful protesters with the looters. Classic mistake made by weak minds.

To Howard: No, Stockwell got kicked out because he’s an idiot who shouldn’t have been in this position in the first place. Sure, he made a reasonable statement. But it was factually wrong as well. Don’t be like him, Howard. Oh, too late.

To Kingston boy: tone deaf = systemic racism. It’s a tough concept to grasp, I know.

To Attrition: Day has an “informed opinion”?? Thanks for the belly laugh.

To NecessaryDorsalMuscles, VicPaul, and Michael-in-north-york. Thank you for coming out of the racist woodwork. Here’s an easier path forward for all of you: Just stop being racist. There. Much easier, no?

To dharmabum: No, we are not all racists. Sorry that you can no longer use that as an excuse.

#200 Eks dee Sipal on 06.05.20 at 10:22 am

Garth, why is CSIS still tagging my posts yellow? Are they really that afraid of me? Well, I guess they should be. I guess they have some intelligence, after all. LOL.

#201 kingston boy on 06.05.20 at 10:26 am

@#188 IHCTD9 on 06.05.20 at 8:56 am
#168 n1tro on 06.05.20 at 12:09 am
Had a virtual all hands meeting today. Topic du jour? “We’re sorry for being white and not understanding what it’s like to be black in these troubling times.” We were treated with a short clip of what white privilege was. Anyone who is troubled by recent events, especially if you are black, was encouraged to take a company paid mental day off. Is it like this at other big companies??

I don’t think I will survive very long in my woke company.

— ——

Your company might just be covering its azz. If the job pays, just roll with it. I know a few folks who have primo 6 figure Private sector and govy jobs and pensions – they have to endure all this pc garbage too.

They deal because of the pay, comes with the package. They actually put effort into forgetting the “PC training” the second it is over – for the sake of their sanity.

Alternately, you could raise hell and ask “what about brown people!?” “Why do you hate us?!” You know, “play the game”.

Might be a day off with pay in there for you too! :)
_________________

nothing PC about it.
you 2 are just tone-deaf.

#202 Sail Away on 06.05.20 at 10:33 am

#199 Eks dee Sipal on 06.05.20 at 10:18 am

To NecessaryDorsalMuscles, VicPaul, and Michael-in-north-york. Thank you for coming out of the racist woodwork. Here’s an easier path forward for all of you: Just stop being racist. There. Much easier, no?

—————–

Sure, no problem. Don’t be an apologist or one who searches out injustice that isn’t really injustice either, because that’s pandering. So cringey.

#203 not 1st on 06.05.20 at 10:38 am

#172 Balmuto on 06.05.20 at 12:36 am

Did you check slips and fall in bathtubs?

There were predictions for 400M worldwide deaths. Did we get anything like that? Its still a non event at these levels.

#204 $fromA$ia on 06.05.20 at 10:38 am

Yea yea, Q2 results will push the market even higher!

The Fed is buying high yield assets in the market.

Why don’t you tell people to buy Real Estate while your at it!!

#205 Howard on 06.05.20 at 10:39 am

#159 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 10:39 pm

I dont think I’m understanding who you’re saying employment equity is discriminating against. I want to fully understand what’s happening to people. Could you clear it up for me?

————————————————

Employment equity is a government program whereby hiring is subject to quotas based on gender or ethnicity. It is highly discriminatory and makes a mockery of the merit principle. You’re probably too young to know this, the 1995 Ontario provincial election, in which the Conservatives under Mike Harris won by a landslide, focused heavily on this issue.

#206 Howard on 06.05.20 at 10:42 am

#199 Eks dee Sipal on 06.05.20 at 10:18 am

Maybe you can identify how Day’s statement was wrong, and in what way Canada is a horribly racist country? Or will you do like other cultural marxists – stamp your feet and yell.

#207 Sail Away on 06.05.20 at 10:44 am

Wow, the ‘racist’ tag is every permanently offended whiner’s free attack on any thought or action they disagree with. No justification or proof necessary.

It’s the MeToo for all.

You hurt my feelings last year and you’re more accomplished than me? Well, you’re a racist! Hah!

#208 kothar on 06.05.20 at 10:46 am

Well so far its a steep V up up up today’s jobs. Time.will tell though overall economy.

#209 Sail Away on 06.05.20 at 10:48 am

#200 Eks dee Sipal on 06.05.20 at 10:22 am

Garth, why is CSIS still tagging my posts yellow? Are they really that afraid of me? Well, I guess they should be. I guess they have some intelligence, after all. LOL.

—————

You’re saying yellow doesn’t deserve equal rights? Ha! I knew it!

#210 Wrk.dover on 06.05.20 at 10:49 am

#179 Wrk.dover on 06.05.20 at 6:43 am

Sounds like the voice of the bitter. – Garth

—————————————-

Bitter about the knee on the neck of my interest, twelve years running while stocks are propped up twelve years running.

Want to have some fun? Repost my very first posting from back when my name was F.dover.

It is all in context.

#211 Sky on 06.05.20 at 10:50 am

Yowsa! Who turned the MSM loose in here? And why do they rate colors? Must be a new thing – yellow journalism privilege.

Sky blue for me please.

#212 Michael in-north-york on 06.05.20 at 10:51 am

#199 Eks dee Sipal on 06.05.20 at 10:18 am

To NecessaryDorsalMuscles, VicPaul, and Michael-in-north-york. Thank you for coming out of the racist woodwork. Here’s an easier path forward for all of you: Just stop being racist. There. Much easier, no?


Eks, take your own medicine and stop being racist. Much easier, no?

#213 SeeB on 06.05.20 at 11:27 am

#159 SeeB on 06.04.20 at 10:39 pm

I dont think I’m understanding who you’re saying employment equity is discriminating against. I want to fully understand what’s happening to people. Could you clear it up for me?

————————————————

Employment equity is a government program whereby hiring is subject to quotas based on gender or ethnicity. It is highly discriminatory and makes a mockery of the merit principle. You’re probably too young to know this, the 1995 Ontario provincial election, in which the Conservatives under Mike Harris won by a landslide, focused heavily on this issue.

———————————————-

Thanks for taking the time to talk to me. I don’t think I agree that the legacy of the past doesn’t haunt the present, but I appreciate hearing another perspective.

#214 IHCTD9 on 06.05.20 at 11:47 am

#201 kingston boy on 06.05.20 at 10:26 am
@#188 IHCTD9 on 06.05.20 at 8:56 am
#168 n1tro on 06.05.20 at 12:09 am
Had a virtual all hands meeting today. Topic du jour? “We’re sorry for being white and not understanding what it’s like to be black in these troubling times.” We were treated with a short clip of what white privilege was. Anyone who is troubled by recent events, especially if you are black, was encouraged to take a company paid mental day off. Is it like this at other big companies??

I don’t think I will survive very long in my woke company.

— ——

Your company might just be covering its azz. If the job pays, just roll with it. I know a few folks who have primo 6 figure Private sector and govy jobs and pensions – they have to endure all this pc garbage too.

They deal because of the pay, comes with the package. They actually put effort into forgetting the “PC training” the second it is over – for the sake of their sanity.

Alternately, you could raise hell and ask “what about brown people!?” “Why do you hate us?!” You know, “play the game”.

Might be a day off with pay in there for you too! :)
_________________

nothing PC about it.
you 2 are just tone-deaf.
– –

Uh oh, now Indian dudes hate black people too?

#215 Sail away on 06.05.20 at 11:49 am

‘The Oppressor Class’ has been identified as the GREAT EVIL.

In the last year, on this blog alone, I and many others have been accused of being:

A slave owner
A climate change denier
A Trump fanboy
A racist
A white supremacist
A virus denier

…in addition to just normal insults.

It’s funny how labels morph from one to another, always by the same subset of people, always staying with the ‘blame others’ theme for the newest and most popular victim theme.

Here’s the really interesting part: In almost every case, it’s not the actual ‘victims’, if we can call them that, who are saying things, but their sideline supporters who have probably never experienced a second of discrimination in their life, but somehow feel justified to militantly take up the cause for all their brothers and sisters out there.

Being a minority myself.. as well as an inveterate opportunist, haha, I have of course benefitted greatly from the skewed and unequal programs showing favouritism toward minorities.

Then I take the cash and hire a bunch of young white male engineers because they do really good work and never, ever claim that they themselves are being discriminated against- even when I work, work, work them to the bone and profit handsomely. Some of them are part of the permanently aggrieved on behalf of others and spend a lot of time supporting stuff that benefits me to their detriment…

Is that wrong? Please phrase any disagreements in a way that cannot possibly be interpreted to convey discriminatory attitude.

#216 IHCTD9 on 06.05.20 at 11:51 am

#209 Sail Away on 06.05.20 at 10:48 am
#200 Eks dee Sipal on 06.05.20 at 10:22 am

Garth, why is CSIS still tagging my posts yellow? Are they really that afraid of me? Well, I guess they should be. I guess they have some intelligence, after all. LOL.

—————

You’re saying yellow doesn’t deserve equal rights? Ha! I knew it!

Eks is the biggest racist on this blog, always poking fun at yellow with every post.

#217 Wrk.dover on 06.05.20 at 12:02 pm

Ledgers; Black ink & Red ink

So much federal reserve Red ink out there, Black ink doesn’t matter. No respect or interest for Black ink.

#218 IHCTD9 on 06.05.20 at 12:10 pm

#213 SeeB on 06.05.20 at 11:27 am

I don’t think I agree that the legacy of the past doesn’t haunt the present, …
—-

Interesting, so if an offence against a particular group is rectified, said group can still piss and moan about it till the end of time?

#219 Bytor the Snow Dog on 06.05.20 at 12:18 pm

@The Judge, King, and Arbitrator of all that is “Offensive” Eks De Sipal, and Kingston Boy:

There’s ignorance and willful ignorance. Which category do you fall under?

#220 Faron on 06.05.20 at 12:32 pm

Wow, just tuned into the internet. Sorry Sail Away, you make some interesting points, but I’m not wading in this morning. These discussions would be best had in person so folks can see eye to eye in the literal sense and approach from a humane basis.

Anyhow, on the topic of “OMG look at the markets”, I’m going to relay my foibles from Feb 21 onward so you can either laugh or identify with any good or bad decisions. A story of my investing during the pandemic:

Didn’t see the drop coming until the Friday before. I had dialled back from 90% equity to 80% the week before because spidy senses were tingling. Not because of the virus so much as seeming irrational exuberance as markets were on a pace that seemed unmaintainable.

Starting the next week I panicked. Sold bought sold but luckily sold into bonds about half way down.

Had bought VIX through HUV but sold for a tiny gain. Oops. Had no idea what that holding actually meant.

Mostly stayed sidelined until April when I came down with FOMO combined with straight fear of the market plunging again. Made a lot of trades including leveraged and inverse leveraged ETFs. I was gambling hoping to make up for losses. A few wins, but more pain than gain so managed to tread water as the market surged.

More of the same into early May.

Finally I divorced my account from myself after the relatively small mid May drop. Bought a few high quality ETFs: XBAL, FIE, XMW, AOR. Opened up a roboadvisor account that I can’t touch. Locked it all up and threw away the keys. Scrambled my password and directed recovery of it through a family member.

Been happy to watch it grow like wildfire since. Still down YTD because of April foolishness. I’ve learned that I’m way less risk tolerant than I thought I was when I answered screening questions with what I know is correct versus a real assesment.

That’s my story. Hope it’s useful.

#221 IHCTD9 on 06.05.20 at 12:37 pm

#199 Eks dee Sipal on 06.05.20 at 10:18 am
To Dogman: White privileged folks can keep “debating” if they want, meanwhile a majority consensus has been reached that something has to continue to be done about the obvious systemic racism in every single pocket of this great country.
—-

If Canada is such a racist horror show, why are 4 out of the top 5 countries Canada receives immigrants from home to non-whites?

#222 not 1st on 06.05.20 at 12:45 pm

The police certainly haven’t endeared themselves during the pandemic. I want to be sympathetic to the issues they face every day, but at the same time, not a single one exercised any discretion during the lock down. None questioned the egghead experts. Fines, harassment, even arrests just for exercising your god given rights to a free life.

These forces look like their are chock full of frustrated former high school jocks. And predominately white is not a good look either.

I mean there is something to be said about a public service like policing having a membership that reflects the racial make up of the community they are involved in.

#223 Don Guillermo on 06.05.20 at 12:48 pm

My personal white privilege story … I know, it’s anecdotal.
Years ago, my EPC company landed a project to do a process expansion and a control system modernization at a very old Petrotrin Refinery in Trinidad. My boss at the time was a black Trinidadian who had immigrated to Canada decades earlier. Our team was doing the control system modernizing. We were sent to Trinidad to set up an office close to the refinery to do detail engineering and to use mostly Trinidadian technical staff. We would drive into site often to verify equipment that we needed to interface with. If my boss drove, we would always get stopped by security entering and leaving the refinery and would endear a serious inspection of our vehicle and its contents. If I drove (note: I’m the white dude) security waved us through with hardly a glance. This happened dozens of time. My boss would be furious at his former country men. The crowning moment was one evening we went to a street side rum shop in Port of Spain. The crowd we were mingling with thought we were joking when we introduced our black friend as our boss. They were convinced he was our driver. To this day we have great belly laughs reminiscing this over a pint. He always says how much he appreciates Canada.

#224 Shannon Bergman on 06.05.20 at 12:58 pm

DELETED

#225 n1tro on 06.05.20 at 1:24 pm

#201 kingston boy on 06.05.20 at 10:26 am
_________________

nothing PC about it.
you 2 are just tone-deaf.
—————–
At least use the correct analogy if you want to disparage an argument without any substance to back things up.

Being tone deaf still means one can hear the sound but not distinguish the pitch.

Apologizing for being born white is the same as apologizing for being black regardless of the circumstances. One person can not represent the crimes or achievements of a group just as a group can not take responsibility for the actions of individuals within its ranks.

As a person of color…see I can be PC too….I don’t need to hear a few white people a in management awkwardly apologize for the actions of some racists cops while addressing specifically black people as “the black folks on the call”. Identity politics is a race down to who can be the biggest victim.

#226 Attrition on 06.05.20 at 1:25 pm

The only institutionalized racism in Canada is called affirmative action or reverse discrimination.

I’ve experienced it dozens of times. It is the only form of racism NOT frowned upon by governments, but actively embraced.

No one in my family is complicit or guilty for anything any person or nation may have done in the past. I own none of it, but this doesn’t mean I want to see it perpetuated. All people should be free.

What we are seeing today is noise amplified. To see through it, consider:

Why is it ok to be racist to fight racism (lumping all ‘whites’ together: gimme a break), sexist to fight sexism (wanna talk about the pejorative ‘mansplaining’ or male suicide rates? Didn’t think so), ageist to fight ageism (‘Ok Boomer’ from the mouth ‘woke millennials’)?

Here’s why: because it’s all a total load of socialist manure intended to divide all by identity and conquer all by default.

And most of us fall for it.

The the black community, I say this: you’re never going to get the support you want to fight the racism you claim to suffer if you refuse to admit that the social choices your community makes also have a huge impact on your outcomes.

If white folk are nervous when encountering a black male on a sidewalk at night, that isn’t racism.

To compare, when I used to walk home late at night in Vancouver, often if there was a women out walking alone as well, she would cross the street. At first I was offended when this happened: I’m a protector, not a predator.

Then I realized, her lived experience entirely different than mine. I didn’t scream sexism, even though I’m not guilty of crimes committed by other men. Her reaction may have been unfair, but it wasn’t unreasonable.

Once the riots die down, I wonder if anyone in the black community will have the courage to have an honest conversation about race, because it sure as hell isn’t just about skin colour.

#227 Sail away on 06.05.20 at 1:38 pm

#218 IHCTD9 on 06.05.20 at 12:10 pm
#213 SeeB on 06.05.20 at 11:27 am

I don’t think I agree that the legacy of the past doesn’t haunt the present, …

————–

Interesting, so if an offence against a particular group is rectified, said group can still piss and moan about it till the end of time?

————–

Absolutely… if and only if, of course, said group is not white.

If that’s the case, the group can also perpetrate both micro and macro aggressions against white people, retribution-free… forever…

Because equality doesn’t actually mean equality, apparently.

#228 Yuus bin Haad on 06.05.20 at 1:40 pm

#200 Eks dee Sipal

class=”author”

#229 Sail away on 06.05.20 at 1:48 pm

#225 n1tro on 06.05.20 at 1:24 pm

Apologizing for being born white is the same as apologizing for being black regardless of the circumstances. One person can not represent the crimes or achievements of a group just as a group can not take responsibility for the actions of individuals within its ranks.

—————

Well said.

#230 Sail away on 06.05.20 at 1:49 pm

#226 Attrition on 06.05.20 at 1:25 pm

The only institutionalized racism in Canada is called affirmative action or reverse discrimination.

————-

I agree. Great point.

#231 Tater on 06.05.20 at 2:41 pm

#230 Sail away on 06.05.20 at 1:49 pm
#226 Attrition on 06.05.20 at 1:25 pm

The only institutionalized racism in Canada is called affirmative action or reverse discrimination.

————-

I agree. Great point.

——————————————————

No such thing as systemic racism claims man who also claims to only hire white men.

#232 Sail away on 06.05.20 at 3:51 pm

#231 Tater on 06.05.20 at 2:41 pm
#230 Sail away on 06.05.20 at 1:49 pm
#226 Attrition on 06.05.20 at 1:25 pm

The only institutionalized racism in Canada is called affirmative action or reverse discrimination.

————

I agree. Great point.

————

No such thing as systemic racism claims man who also claims to only hire white men.

————

Yep, as expected. If it doesn’t fit the narrative, just fabricate it.

Where exactly did you see ‘only’?

You just made that up because it made your story work? Oh, ok.

#233 jess on 06.05.20 at 4:17 pm

….”People whose symptoms were mild were often just told to self-isolate, and considered “epi-linked” cases, a presumption that they likely had the virus.

Going forward, now that supplies are more readily available, Dr. Henry said officials will be reaching out to those “epi-linked” cases and doing serology testing to determine whether they were, in fact, carrying the coronavirus.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-virus-modelling-most-sequenced-cases-are-european-eastern-canadian-u-s-strains-1.4969069

#234 jess on 06.05.20 at 4:21 pm

DELETED