What matters

The news was enough to freak Amy out. Like she needed more of it.

The economy’s shrunk faster than a dude in a lake – 8% in March (and half of that month was pre-virus). This is Great Depression stuff. Imagine what the April and May numbers will be. Ugh. Also a bank just cut its dividend. So are things starting to unravel?

Here’s her situation, and her fear.

I have been reading your blog for years, and while I was in a relationship, had my money invested jointly.  When the partner parted I moved to a self directed brokerage (TD Waterhouse) and that worked well for me over the past five years.  I have since retired, living on CPP, OAS, GIS and dipping into my TFSA dividends to make ends meet.  I rent an old apartment in Hope BC; after a lifetime in Victoria, I couldn’t afford to retire there.

Before COVID my portfolio (maxed TFSA & RRSP) was at $100k, not much to speak for, but two divorces and 16 yrs of being a single mom, has been devastating financially.  Given the present global situation, my portfolio is down 35%.  I am prepared to ride it out, however a close friend is impressing the “inevitable ” on me, meaning now the banks will fail and I should sell off my investments and buy silver and gold.  I can’t afford to get this wrong.  Your thoughts?

First, Amy, the ‘bank’ cutting its dividend is more like a glorified credit union. The Laurentian Bank has been lackluster for years, forced to pay off staff and close 50 branches in Quebec. Total assets are $35 billion, which sounds like a lot. But the Royal Bank is worth $1.5 trillion, and probably has a few billion lying around for pizzas-&-beer on Fridays.

So, none of the Big Six will be cutting, suspending, trimming or otherwise diddling with their dividends. No bank will fail. Never will there be any bail-in provisions triggered. Your bank-held assets are safe and dry.

Now, this does not mean the bankers aren’t sweating a few bullets, thanks to Covid. These ae testy times on Bay Street, which is why bank stocks shed about 20% of their value since the virus came to town. Eight million Canadians are on the dole and almost a million can’t/won’t pay their mortgages. Tons of small business clients are going paws-up over the next few months. Defaults on home loans are expected to increase, as are consumer bankruptcies. HELOCs, car loans, business LOCs – lots of debt will sour.

In response, the banks have set aside almost $11 billion to cover these anticipated loan losses. Doing so has crashed their profit numbers, but it was the correct action. Says TD’s chief financial officer: ““What we’re living through here is an unprecedented shutdown of large segments of the economy, which is impacting consumers and businesses and customer activity in unprecedented ways. We’ve looked at our provisions and applied a good measure of prudence to make sure that we are prepared to weather this pandemic.”

Amy, babe, worry about something else. Not the banks. They’ve got this handled.

So, about your portfolio. Let’s start there. If it tanked 35% you’re not balanced, not diversified and had way too much equity exposure for a wrinklie (or anyone else). A B&D portfolio shed far less than stock markets  and has steadily crawled back since then. With a hundred grand in two registered accounts, you should have just a few positions – balanced ETFs with exposure to North American and international markets plus some bonds and REITs. If you have no preferred fund, this is the time to get one. Cheap. Six per cent yield.

The worst possible move would be to go to cash, then buy a bunch of rocks. Gold and silver are purely speculative, highly volatile, pay no interest, no dividends, no income. You can’t easily trade this stuff (especially in rural BC), nor can you chew off a hunk to buy groceries with at Save On. Bullion is the emotional crutch of the prepper set, and goes nice with semi-automatics, sheep manure and the Old Testament. But it has no place in the modern portfolio of a retired, single woman who needs dependable cash flow.

Now, will things get worse?

Of course. What happens when the CERB, the mortgage deferrals and the emergency business loans/rent subsidies end? More contraction. Many business failures. Household distress. Forced property sales. Just what you’d expect when the jobless rate stays north of 10% and the free government money ends. This is the scenario the bankers are readying for with their eleven billion in bad-money reserves.

At that point anything can happen. The T2 gang might keep the benefits going, ensuring that your grandchildren’s offspring are taxed mercilessly. Or maybe the virus sneaks back. And what about the US election in November? How does that possibly end well?

All of this you cannot know, Amy. Nor can anyone.

But this is not our first disaster. And pandemics are temporary. You may think it’s different this time. It is not.

Even if it were, fretting over events you cannot control only wastes what matters. Without time, nothing has value. Even in Hope.

167 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 05.29.20 at 1:30 pm

Potential economic outcome for Kanada.

As mentioned we are in WW3 – a 24/7 war propaganda campaign convinced us we all are walking bio-weapons. And that Saddam has WMD. Wartime rules in effect: all events, culture, travel was cancelled; curfews, rations with war-time govt spending levels were unleashed. Military sent to care homes in ON, QC – getting us accustomed to this are they?

Wars are fought over land. Big box stores have enough land, they can endure the economic weapon known as “Distancing”.
Small business has not this land. I spoke with an owner they cannot open one half of their store with its own revenue stream due to ‘distancing’. Kneecapped at 50% revenue, this is the UN-enforced poverty, to turn 1st world countries into 2nd.

What is the end game? All those strip malls of dying small businesses, could be turned into Condos?
Notice that during the shutdown Ontario ordered Condo construction Open. They want condos.

Why do they want condos and who are “they”?
Right here – a cadre of mainly bankers and financeers pushing for 100 million population in Kanada.
Well we do need more tax slaves to pay down the debt they created.
(Remember this: Problem-reaction-solution. This is how the world gets changed one small step at a time)

https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/about/

Our Purpose Ensure an influential and prosperous future for Canada
Our Vision A competitive global nation of 100 Million Canadians unified by diversity and prosperity

#2 Drew Ng on 05.29.20 at 1:37 pm

I really hope Amy doesn’t sell right now. Garth, your story about a relative that sold into cash during the 2008 financial crisis, and was then forced to claim bankruptcy in her 80’s, is a truly sad story, and I hope that nobody has to experience that.
I try to bite my tongue when people make big financial decisions in extreme times, but I’m glad Amy had the courage to ask you about it. Please listen to him. Good luck, Amy!

#3 Lead Paint on 05.29.20 at 1:39 pm

Thank you Garth.

I came across your blog 10 years ago in my mid-30s, single, a renter, and reluctantly getting pushed into condo ownership. I didn’t want to get in the real estate market, but figured I had already missed out on ten years of real estate growth, and frankly being a renter had a stigma that was not helping me on the dating scene!

But I found your blog (thank you Google) and your voice of confidence and sanity. I reached out to you and you took me on as a client, even though I had far less savings than I thought I would need for a financial advisor.

Meeting you in person was quite a kick, after ‘knowing’ you via the news during your tiffs with Harper and forays into online democracy. If only your model and experiments would have been allowed to grow, perhaps we would not have such a divided and politicized country.

I’m still a renter. My wife and I have moved twice since I met you, each time to a bigger, nicer place. We’ve never had debt. I’ve never gone to sleep worried about money. We must have saved a hundred thousand dollars in realtor fees and taxes by avoiding owning, which would have eaten up most of any appreciation.

Not having a mortgage, a long commute or a property to maintain allowed us to focus on building our business and take risks, and we have been successful.

Now disaster has hit our country, the whole world. I have incredible sympathy for those who worked hard and sacrificed to start a business like I did, but are getting wiped out simply because they are in an industry affected by COVID. We have taken a hit but should get through this.

With a three year old in our lives, we have decided that we don’t want to live in a big city, and working from home removes any concerns of a bad commute. We moved to our in-laws for the time being to get help with the little one, and gave our two month notice to the landlord. They are sad to see us go.

We have done well, have enough money to survive a decent (not luxurious) lifestyle, and we are free. We’ll buy a house whenever and wherever we like, but most likely rent again until we figure out where that will be.

You are a wonderful person. I can count you as one of the most beneficially positive influences in my life. I am much better off in life because of you, and your tenacious voice of reason.

As we get wiser (hopefully) with age we learn to give appreciation to the people in our lives while we still can. I am one just one of so many people that you and your magnificent blog have helped. It’s a national treasure and so are you.

I’m looking forward to many more years of hearing your voice, in one format or another.

#4 GrumpyPanda on 05.29.20 at 1:42 pm

In Warren Buffets annual letter to shareholders a few years back he spoke on the subject of owning gold. I suggest both Amy and her friend find and read that. Over and over and over until it sinks in.

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.29.20 at 1:44 pm

Amy.
Readers Digest version.

Balanced and diversified .
Avoid bullion.
The banks aint failing any time soon.

#6 Doug in London on 05.29.20 at 1:45 pm

So how many of you scooped up ZEB and XFN back in March when they were on sale?

#7 Bigguy on 05.29.20 at 1:46 pm

“So, none of the Big Six will be cutting, suspending, trimming or otherwise diddling with their dividends. No bank will fail.”

Does the statement “No bank will fail” include all the lower-tier banks, e.g. Equality Bank? I have my kids’ education gift at E.Q. Bank earning 2% as I will need it soon. I know deposits at this bank are CDIC insured, but if the shizzle did hit the fan with this bank in September or soon after, I would imagine it would take a bit of time to be made whole. Would it be smart to move my money to one of the Big Six (and earn next to no interest) to ensure its availability when I need it?

Of course not. My statement refers to the systemically-important banks. The online guys pose a different level of risk. – Garth

#8 Keyboard Smasher on 05.29.20 at 1:46 pm

When will the rock hoarders ever learn? They spring up every time the market wobbles around, forecasting doom, and taunting the public with their little collections of shiny coins in neatly arrange stacks.

Is there a medical name for this condition?

BTW, does anyone here in web development know how to filter out comments from that lonely lunatic who’s always waiting in ambush to make the first post and rant about the Central Bankers and the Jews etc. Is there some function I can punch into the web browser to screen his babble?

#9 Ramshackle on 05.29.20 at 1:51 pm

At it’s low, my portfolio bottomed out at around -21% in march when compared to December 31, 2019 and has since recovered to the point where I am still down about 10 or 11%.

Admittedly I am probably a little heavier on oil and pipelines (Canadian Eh?) than I should be.

I am just trying to get an order of magnitude here.

Does this suggest that my planning is way out of line and needs adjusting?

I guess I am asking…how does my result compare with others? How am I doing comparatively? I have nothing from which to draw a frame of reference.

Comments?

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.29.20 at 1:51 pm

@#1 Turner Nation

Do you have the Number #1 spot on lockdown?
A paranoid clarion for doom and depression?

#11 Paterfamilias on 05.29.20 at 1:57 pm

# 3 Lead Paint.

Garth, you are going to be forced to the extremity of purchasing hats in a larger size.

No major bank will fail. Period. – Garth

#12 Sail away on 05.29.20 at 1:58 pm

#4 GrumpyPanda on 05.29.20 at 1:42 pm

In Warren Buffets annual letter to shareholders a few years back he spoke on the subject of owning gold. I suggest both Amy and her friend find and read that. Over and over and over until it sinks in.

—————

Let me help out since I have all Berkshire newsletters committed to memory.

Here we have Mr. Buffett in the 2018 newsletter:

“Those who regularly preach doom because of government budget deficits (as I regularly did myself for many years) might note that our country’s national debt has increased roughly 400-fold during the last of my 77-year periods. That’s 40,000%! Suppose you had foreseen this increase and panicked at the prospect of runaway deficits and a worthless currency. To “protect” yourself, you might have eschewed stocks and opted instead to buy 31⁄4 ounces of gold with your $114.75.

And what would that supposed protection have delivered? You would now have an asset worth about $4,200, less than 1% of what would have been realized from a simple unmanaged investment in American business. The magical metal was no match for the American mettle.”

#13 I'd think you have to consider ... on 05.29.20 at 2:01 pm

Hope a suburb of Van now. That’s where the traffic ends. Nice place but lotsa rain. Hope Amy makes the right choice.

#14 YouKnowWho on 05.29.20 at 2:13 pm

Humans not able to touch humans? ‘Tis the truth.

The Virus has transformed humanity into magnets that repel each other, so it’s appropriate that The Touch by Stan Bush is from Transformers cartoon.

Transform and Combine?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A52–FKUQgU

#15 YouKnowWho on 05.29.20 at 2:15 pm

Now, will things get worse?

Of course.

————————–

Rain is coming in after 4PM. I have to go for a bike ride NOW!

#16 TurnerNation on 05.29.20 at 2:18 pm

Small business hoping? As stated there will be as after 9-11 more ‘alerts’ and threat levels for year. This will go on for years.
NO one may get sick any more. And the tests are not 100%. This ain’t science..

Your rights to run a business hang on the numbers on your TV screen.
The province is shut down anew.
Wait until the Cell phone tracking apps are in use, you will see real time shut downs the norm.

3 people got the flu. Of course they TskTsk and blame one person for causing it.

https://huddle.today/new-brunswick-delays-second-yellow-phase-re-openings-amid-campbellton-outbreak/

#17 Stan Brooks on 05.29.20 at 2:26 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 05.29.20 at 1:30 pm

That is the old debt model. Now the new immigrants are net consumers, not producers so it beats me why we need more of these.

——————————————

#12 Sail away on 05.29.20 at 1:58 pm

Everything is temporary and relative.
Many maxed their line of credit to buy Enron and Nortel, check with them how their investment is doing.

Before the ETF times each investment required hefty mutual fund fees at 2-3 % yearly pretty much eating most of the dividends. So investments was not so easy as you made is sound.

On another hand there is the curse of time … but 1 golden Aureus from Roman times is worth 20 k USD today, while no ‘stock’ or ‘investment’ from those times has any value today.

‘stable rate of return’ applies to historically short term time frames only.

Cheers,

#18 Jesse James on 05.29.20 at 2:35 pm

When does CERB end??

#19 Sail away on 05.29.20 at 2:39 pm

#17 Stan Brooks on 05.29.20 at 2:26 pm

#12 Sail away on 05.29.20 at 1:58 pm

————–

Everything is temporary and relative.

Many maxed their line of credit to buy Enron and Nortel, check with them how their investment is doing.

Before the ETF times each investment required hefty mutual fund fees at 2-3 % yearly pretty much eating most of the dividends. So investments was not so easy as you made is sound.

On another hand there is the curse of time … but 1 golden Aureus from Roman times is worth 20 k USD today, while no ‘stock’ or ‘investment’ from those times has any value today.

‘stable rate of return’ applies to historically short term time frames only.

Cheers,

————–

Nope not my words. Your debate is completely with Warren Buffett. I just copied and pasted his statement.

I personally have gold miner Alacer in my portfolio.

#20 SnowOwl on 05.29.20 at 2:46 pm

Garth,
I have been reading your blog since day one. I never got to say “thank you” for the blog. So, thank you for the blog! Can you recommend a preferred ETF to buy right now in the USA?
Cheers

#21 Jerome The Printing Press Powell on 05.29.20 at 2:46 pm

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-jerome-powell-comfortable-with-crisis-response-tools-7-t-balance-sheet-164450654.html?bcmt=1

I’m comfortable with $7 trillion plus on my balance sheet and just kicked my printing press into high gear. $10 trillion sounds about right. Need to buy up all those corporate junk bonds don’t ya know!

You’re welcome.

#22 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 05.29.20 at 2:52 pm

“Never will there be any bail-in provisions triggered. Your bank-held assets are safe and dry.”

YA……We’ve heard this before.

If only I had a dollar for every time someone told me it could NEVER happen”

Truth is…… it’s ALL temporary.

We live on this planet wasting our precious time battling it out with each other when in reality one split second is all it takes for this planet to be sucked into the abyss of the solar system without a single trace of known existence.

#23 Ace Goodheart on 05.29.20 at 2:53 pm

Warren Buffett on Gold:

“[It] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

#24 Ronaldo on 05.29.20 at 3:09 pm

DELETED

#25 BobC on 05.29.20 at 3:10 pm

It’s all such a waste.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-guidance-healthy-people-wear-masks-around-coronavirus-patients

#26 Handsome Ned on 05.29.20 at 3:12 pm

While I would not advocate putting all your eggs in the gold basket, I do have 4 ounces of physical. There is something alluring about holding a one ounce wafer of gold in your hand( my precious). They say one ounce of gold will always buy a high quality suit. Would not know as I am the guy who wears a sports jacket and jeans to a wedding. I think of gold as a car airbag; useless if you head on a semi, but you can walk away hitting a Honda. One day I might have to slip a border guard something I have sewn in my coat to get out of Dodge.

#27 Damifino on 05.29.20 at 3:13 pm

#8 Keyboard Smasher

When will the rock hoarders ever learn? […] Is there a medical name for this condition?
———————————–

I propose “giltphilia”. (gold affection)

Is there some function I can punch into the web browser to screen his babble?
———————————-

Just get that scroll wheel spinning.

#28 Lost...but not leased on 05.29.20 at 3:19 pm

The economy’s shrunk faster than a dude in a lake – 8% in March (and half of that month was pre-virus).
—-Garth

==========================

This means Phartzy will end up a midget.

#29 Ronaldo on 05.29.20 at 3:19 pm

#9 Ramshackle

A balance portfolio 60/40 would have you about even from beginning of the year as mine is.

One of my funds which makes up the largest portion of my portfolio with an MER of .88 is even as of yesterday.

#30 Bob in Hamilton on 05.29.20 at 3:29 pm

Right, now let’s get to the important stuff.

What’s the deal about the dog in the picture?

#31 Dolce Vita on 05.29.20 at 3:33 pm

– 8% in March

* – 7.2% (per StatCan)

Not that it matters because you know, it’s bad enough but hey, every bit of “positive” news counts.

———————————

Oh and almost forgot from yesterday:

SAILAWAY, hyperbole lost on you.

Garth’s factual state of affairs yesterday (dour but accurate) vs. Biblical End Times.

My way of saying cheer up Garth and Canada, yes it is very bad now but Armageddon not quite here yet, virus and all (“pestilence”).

—————

After that drop in GDP with “pestilence” having barely set foot in Canada in March…I am reconsidering my “cheer up” comment.

Imagine what April GDP will look like…then again, not.

#32 The West on 05.29.20 at 3:38 pm

# 3 Lead Paint.

Garth, you are going to be forced to the extremity of purchasing hats in a larger size.

No major bank will fail. Period. – Garth
____________________________________________

They won’t because the tax payers will be called in haste to bail out the gambling they’ve done to profiteer off of our indebtedness and then we will turn around and get smacked with taxation we can’t even fathom yet so that the power structure of country cannot be held accountable.

It is tragic, what this country is doing to its future.

There will be no bail-ins. – Garth

#33 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 05.29.20 at 3:42 pm

Time is irrelevant.

No matter how you have spent it in the past, or how you intend to spend it in the future.

We Can’t touch the past, we can’t reach the future.

All we have is the present moment.

#34 pbrasseur on 05.29.20 at 3:42 pm

For an perspective on the very unusual monetary phase we are going throught (for the US but Canada is similar):

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/05/monetary-expansion-argentina-style.html

#35 pbrasseur on 05.29.20 at 3:49 pm

” The T2 gang might keep the benefits going, ensuring that your grandchildren’s offspring are taxed mercilessly.”

They will be, their money will be worth nothing, it’s called inflation!

#36 Dustin on 05.29.20 at 3:51 pm

To Ramshackle:

It’s hard to communicate in this format and you might not read this but I had the same portfolio performance as you. I spent the first ten years of my career in the oil field so I bought companies I know and I was heavy on heavy oil and pipelines. I know Garth says your a fool if you do this but I love buying individual stocks and I’m not going to give it up (I’m a fool, Garth is correct).

My wife does what Garth says and has 30% bonds, 30% Canadian equities, 30% International, and 10% whatever. I never realized the simple beauty of this portfolio until the market crashed. It’s beautiful because when the market crashes, you re-balance, selling bonds and buying ETFs at a discount! Genius, yet simple and easy. I might one day put down my cowboy hat, and transition into a portfolio of this type.

#37 Phylis on 05.29.20 at 3:52 pm

Interesting. Housesigma has a ‘sold below bought’ viewing category now. How long has that been there?

#38 not 1st on 05.29.20 at 3:54 pm

yeah Amy, worry about the incompetent shut in PM throwing billions out the window every day before retreating under his bed.

#39 Michael King on 05.29.20 at 3:57 pm

This is an excellent essay on the current situation from a historical perspective. Sobering. Thank you Garth for reiterating that it is not different this time.
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176706/tomgram%3A_nomi_prins%2C_a_rendezvous_with_destiny/#more

#40 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.29.20 at 4:00 pm

It’s raining, thunderstorms coming.

There is no point, I repeat, NO POINT in coming up this weekend.

STAY THE HELL AWAY YOU SELFISH SOUTHERN HILLBILLIES!

Just.

Stay.

Home.

In your REAL home.

#41 Dolce Vita on 05.29.20 at 4:01 pm

-7.2% drop in GDP disguises the monetary carnage and a RESET to 3.5 years ago.

From Feb to Mar, GDP shrank by:

$‭143,564‬,000.

To put it another way, March’s GDP of $1,846,869 million rolled back GDP to September 2016 when it was $1,848,637 million.

Ontario went into lockdown on March 24 when all non-essential businesses were closed.

So in not even a couple of weeks the Canadian economy lost all the wealth it had built up over 3.5 years.

Mind Boggling.

…I wonder what April’s going to roll us back to, 2006?

#42 Dolce Vita on 05.29.20 at 4:05 pm

My bad, that was:

$‭143.564 Billion.

Too many darned 0’s to keep track off (that we lost).

#43 yvr_lurker on 05.29.20 at 4:06 pm

Certainly don’t pull it out now and buy metal, as over the long haul it will bounce back. Somehow the $$ must have been in something highly risk to have lost 35%. Our portfolio is down about 4% from where it was in January. Leaving it there is fine as this is for the long-term. However, I did put all of the RESP for my kid into a 1-year GIC at 1.3% with BMO, and will re-evaluate next May. Need to start drawing from this in the summer of 2022, and the risk for a major short-term correction over the next 1–2 years was too much to gamble on for us. Too many variables and unknowns, and I think there is a good chance that the worse is yet to come.

#44 Danny Partridge on 05.29.20 at 4:09 pm

At it’s low, my portfolio bottomed out at around -21% in march when compared to December 31, 2019 and has since recovered to the point where I am still down about 10 or 11%.

Admittedly I am probably a little heavier on oil and pipelines (Canadian Eh?) than I should be.

I am just trying to get an order of magnitude here.

Does this suggest that my planning is way out of line and needs adjusting?

I guess I am asking…how does my result compare with others? How am I doing comparatively? I have nothing from which to draw a frame of reference.

Comments?

———————————————–

I will play along.

Not exactly sure where my two bottomed-out at though I think 22-25% range.

One now down 9% and the other 8.3%. Have talked to good friend who was down 9% at the start of the week. Could be better, but could be worse I suppose.

#45 FreeBird on 05.29.20 at 4:23 pm

Amy take Garth’s advice. Don’t just nod and smile then go buy gold to bury in your garden, the next big stock or go half on a bunker (or chickens.) My other half and I took his advice many yrs ago when at a cross roads and slowly built more security. Not easy but worth it. First steps are the hardest then hang in. Gets easier.

#46 Doug t on 05.29.20 at 4:32 pm

#1 TurnerNation

God help us EH – spot on too

#47 Do we have all the facts on 05.29.20 at 4:34 pm

Scrying into an orbuculum in an attempt to predict the future often ends in tears. Tread carefully!

#48 Lisa on 05.29.20 at 4:37 pm

I am a big fan, Garth, and I know you are a white guy of a certain age. But do you really need to throw the “babe” in there when writing to a grown woman? Sheesh. No wonder you have so many deplorables in the comment section.

Ask Amy if she minds. My babe doesn’t. – Garth

#49 calgary rip off on 05.29.20 at 4:41 pm

With uncertainty comes fear and apprehension.

In health care even. I work on a cardiac unit. Apparently one person just had her on call duties retracted completely. It is either quit the position or accept the outcome. In my group the on call duties are being shuffled around.

Why would anyone really care about what is happening in healthcare? Much of stress is physiological response. Everyone deserves to feel well with a well tuned nervous system. People may say none of the physiological response matters. If so, why do people get stoned and or drunk as one response to stress? Stress can kill you. Blogs such as this give education which is valuable in helping correct self talk.

Covid 19 is here to stay as a threat. Even with vaccination should it become available, once again there is more uncertainty.

People need to believe in something. Judaism, atheism, Islam, Wiccan, Buddhism, etc there is something for everyone and this can handle stress. The reality is that there are larger forces than individual choices.

For myself I prefer LDS theology. Around 1840 LDS pioneers trekked west and established an empire which due to U.S. government intervention was subdued. Brigham Young made the religion work and while there was much suffering in establishing the new frontier there were also many successes. As such this religion works and it does for me too. Stress innoculation.

#50 mark on 05.29.20 at 4:45 pm

Ah ‘close friends’. The mental terrorists of investing.

#51 Ontario No More!! on 05.29.20 at 4:46 pm

Well, we are adding 3 more to the population of Nova Scotia. After spending my entire childhood and adulthood in Ontario we have decided that it was time to seek greener pastures. I was floored to read that Garth was already in Lunendurg – and somehow I picture Garth eating at the Grand Banker (good food and cozy atmosphere). We are eyeing the Chester area though Brookside will likely be a place to call home. For 18 years we called this small piece of property that was an hour north of Toronto home though I became unsettled about waiting any longer and pulled the trigger in late February 2020 – the deal was sealed within 4 days of listing and just 2 weeks before the Covid-19 onslaught came. I do admit as the money sits temporary in my bank account I have been feeling anxious of cash just sitting idle while I hear talk of bank bail-ins starting to concern me. I have followed your blog for many years Garth and worried your predictions of a real estate contraction was very possible and felt it was time to take the chips off the table. I remember my grade 9 teacher used to say – life is about the “hot potato game”. Someone always will be stuck with that potato in other words, the real estate market is one serious potato and this one is gonna burn many.

#52 Global virus lockdown was ‘madness’ on 05.29.20 at 4:53 pm

#39 For Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!

Dude you escaped from the Funny Farm again, I thought you were banned from this blog…ROTFL

Look around if you see men in white coats with a straight jacket, you are in the right place.. Just don’t fight it, let them adjust it on your body for maximum comfort, you will feel much better afterwards.

Then read the news from CDC about the true Covid19 IFR.

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it—far lower than the infection fatality rates (IFRs) assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.

#53 FlourPower on 05.29.20 at 4:56 pm

#3 Lead Paint –

Your comment was a well-written and kind tribute. Was just simply a nice thing to read.

Glad Garth helped you. Thanks for writing.

#54 Reximus on 05.29.20 at 5:12 pm

Dolce Vita: “So in not even a couple of weeks the Canadian economy lost all the wealth it had built up over 3.5 years.”

Huh?

#55 Brian Ripley on 05.29.20 at 5:12 pm

“Says TD’s chief financial officer: “What we’re living through here is an unprecedented shutdown of large segments of the economy, which is impacting consumers and businesses and customer activity in unprecedented ways.”

I just published a new post “SUPRASECULAR DECLINE”

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/suprasecular-decline

The phrase in the title refers to a 110 page paper by Paul Schmelzing, January 2020. Bank of England Staff working Paper No. 845 “Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G [real wealth returns (R) and broader real growth (G)], and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018”

I copied Paul’s intro and conclusion into my post and I included as well Canadian GDP charts, some of ​Stephen Poloz’s ​farewell remarks and an abbreviated list of some of the main arguments that “This time REALLY is different” by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff.

So is it an “unprecedented” shutdown of large segments of the economy impacting consumers and businesses and customer activity in “unprecedented” ways? (TD’s chief had to use “unprecedented” twice for emphasis).

Paul Schmelzing’s study of interest rates and safe asset returns since the late 15th century demonstrates that we have been in a very long (6 centuries) decline towards negative rates. (see the table included showing nominal rates, inflation levels and real rates per century).

Central banks may continue to knob fiddle with nominal bank rates and use their monetary “tools” but ZIRP and NIRP is going to be with us now for a long time to come.

If we are to have negative real rates as an economic feature going forward, then if nominal rates do not fall any further (I think they bottomed in March 2020) then CPI inflation is going to rise higher than the nominal rate so that the real rate persists in being negative.

Oh oh… that means cost inflation during a long upcoming period of very high unemployment and very high household debt levels and very large drops in household consumption.

Say good bye to Canadian GDP since it’s made up of 60-70% consumer spending.

There are probably going to be other bank and financial services related problems which others on this blog can identify, but one for sure will be insurance premiums (my strata insurance premium quote went up 30% this year because insurance companies can’t tolerate negative rates when claims are rising at the same time.

One other point I will make is that this pandemic will not be contained this year (read the epidemiological analysis of pandemic histories)… not only that, but other potential viral pandemic diseases are already out there and will continue to appear from time to time.

The sooner we reform our social contract, the better. This pandemic has highlighted the negative class distinctions that we have been ignoring since the 1970’s.

Continued environmental destruction is going to be worse and more enveloping than this current pandemic.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.29.20 at 5:13 pm

@#40 Lost the Lease
“This means Phartzy will end up a midget…

++++

Brad Pitt and I , uncanny resemblance, so I’m told.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0421715/

#57 Tom Nascou on 05.29.20 at 5:14 pm

“Bullion is the emotional crutch of the prepper set, and goes good with semi-automatics, sheep manure and the Old Testament.” – great line that I can’t wait to use (with proper credit to Mr.Turner).
It made my day.

#58 not 1st on 05.29.20 at 5:16 pm

#50 Ontario No More!! on 05.29.20 at 4:46 pm
—-

You guys are going the wrong way. The Maritimes are heading for a demographic crash and then a provincial default and then to become wards of the state.

But if you disavow Trudeau and his ilk we will keep a space open for you in the new western republic. Its going to be amazing.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-newfoundlands-sos-falls-on-deliberately-deaf-ears

#59 Yankee Canuck on 05.29.20 at 5:16 pm

I love the pic. Now I am thinking about time.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.29.20 at 5:23 pm

#12 Sail away on 05.29.20 at 1:58 pm
#4 GrumpyPanda on 05.29.20 at 1:42 pm

In Warren Buffets annual letter to shareholders a few years back he spoke on the subject of owning gold. I suggest both Amy and her friend find and read that. Over and over and over until it sinks in.

—————

Let me help out since I have all Berkshire newsletters committed to memory.
—————————
And this from a person who ridicules persons who have memorized the bible.
Not that I care either way.

#61 Raj on 05.29.20 at 5:25 pm

#18 Jesse James,
The last payment will be in mid-June

#62 Reximus on 05.29.20 at 5:31 pm

For music lovers…

I know this is way off topic but, Lyle Lovett and John Hyatt are streaming a live show at 9pm on youtube

#63 Tony on 05.29.20 at 5:33 pm

Gold should do well in 2021 when the American dollar is crucified to prevent a crash in the real estate market and in the stock market. Since this is an election year in America its not politically correct to destroy the dollar this year. Not much profit taking on silver on the last trading day of the month and more so since its a Friday. With the world economies reopening it puts limited downside on silver. Maybe Amy is holding U.S. bank shares.

#64 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.29.20 at 5:36 pm

Bullion is the emotional crutch of the prepper set, and goes good with semi-automatics, sheep manure and the Old Testament.”
—————————-
Garth,
You just insulted 33% of your reader-ship.
According to the latest Ipsos poll. +/- 3%

#65 Reximus on 05.29.20 at 5:42 pm

#57 not 1st…nonsense

the maritime provinces are having their biggest population increases in 30 years. NL? not so much

#66 ltartist on 05.29.20 at 5:45 pm

The whole country is sinking… why do you think that is something special for the maritimes.

#67 TurnerNation on 05.29.20 at 5:46 pm

Crowded no I just happened to the check the blog as I was checking the markets. Jimmy I ain’t. Content I produce.

#68 CanadianGrizzly on 05.29.20 at 5:47 pm

RE: #11 Paterfamilias on 05.29.20 at 1:57 pm

“No major bank will fail. Period. – Garth”

Correction. “No major bank will BE ALLOWED fail. Period. ” Long live central bankers!

#69 MF on 05.29.20 at 5:50 pm

57 not 1st on 05.29.20 at 5:16 pm

New western republic?

Get real.

MF

#70 Oracle of Ottawa on 05.29.20 at 5:51 pm

I started to invest in a trading account at the beginning of 2000. Just before the dot com bust. I freaked and sold a lot of my assets at a loss. In the debt crises of 2008, I just rode it out. Now when I saw the economies were slowing I bought some gold in 2018. I didn’t buy a lot, but enough to make a small profit. Regardless of what you think about gold, some cycles become pretty predictable.

#71 tkid on 05.29.20 at 5:52 pm

Sold 50% in January. Bottomed out at 15% down. Now just over 100% after the banks had their run up this week.

#72 Stone on 05.29.20 at 5:52 pm

I have been reading your blog for years. Given the present global situation, my portfolio is down 35%.

Now, will things get worse?

Of course.

———

Is this time for a faceplant?

I don’t understand how people read this blog for years and still don’t get it. -1.56% YTD. I can’t comprehend -35% at this point in time. I don’t think I want to. How do you even recover from that now without a hail mary trade?

#73 yvrguy on 05.29.20 at 5:56 pm

guys, get Wealthica to keep track. It’s free and brilliant. There’s a performance tab that you can measure against Vbal.

It hooks directly into major online Brokers like Questrade, TD etc.

Data is your friend.

0.0% YTD. Woo!

#74 Linda on 05.29.20 at 6:02 pm

Amy, take Garth’s advice. If necessary rebalance your portfolio as he suggests. Don’t try to time the market when doing this; the idea is to get it done so that going forward your nest egg has the best chance of growing when circumstances permit & when times are bad any losses are 1) temporary & 2) minimized.

His second point is also noteworthy. Your most valuable asset is time; being in the over 65 crowd your risk of outliving your assets is currently far lower than your risk of not living. Take care of yourself, enjoy your life while you can & don’t fall prey to the shiny rocks investing meme. If you want a shiny rock, buy a tube of gold paint & make yourself one:)

#75 MF on 05.29.20 at 6:06 pm

51 Global virus lockdown was ‘madness

Did you count the greaterfool comment section as part of the casualties?

I know she had underlying heath issues to begin with, but covid ended it.

Look at our first post tonight as a “symptom”.

MF

#76 JacqueShellacque on 05.29.20 at 6:09 pm

#9 Ramshackle

“I guess I am asking…how does my result compare with others?”

About the same, down 8 or 9%. Garth will hate me for this (among other things), but I’ve taken profits in about half of my equity positions (bought about 4 or 5 years ago), got rid of all my bonds (up only about 2 or 3% from when I bought them around the same time, I’d rather protect my portfolio with options) and I’ll be sitting about 50% cash for the time being. It’s not different this time until it’s different this time.

#77 Keep Your Rent on 05.29.20 at 6:24 pm

Of course. What happens when the CERB, the mortgage deferrals and the emergency business loans/rent subsidies end? More contraction.

Explain to me how this doesn’t affect the stock market?

Already done. – Garth

#78 Damifino on 05.29.20 at 6:24 pm

#57 not 1st

Yeah, I was going to post that Rex Murphy link. Brilliant and absolutely scathing, as we might expect. It really broke me up when Rex referred to the “Tent of Commons”.

#79 Sail away on 05.29.20 at 6:31 pm

#59 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.29.20 at 5:23 pm
#12 Sail away on 05.29.20 at 1:58 pm
#4 GrumpyPanda on 05.29.20 at 1:42 pm

In Warren Buffets annual letter to shareholders a few years back he spoke on the subject of owning gold. I suggest both Amy and her friend find and read that. Over and over and over until it sinks in.

————–

Let me help out since I have all Berkshire newsletters committed to memory.

————–

And this from a person who ridicules persons who have memorized the bible.

Not that I care either way.

————–

Ponz, my friend, never would I ridicule anyone who memorized the bible. I’ve read it several times myself, although to be fair, I scan the begetting upon begetting and am not totally clear on all lineages.

Now, accepting the dogma is an entirely different matter.

#80 TurnerNation on 05.29.20 at 6:34 pm

Ripley re. Consumer spending.
I’m seeing long lineups at liquor stores.
Full parking lots at garden nurseries.
A small army of food delivery people on the streets and into my condo.
Drive throughs at fast foods and Timmy-s often rammed full.
Canadian Tire online orders are behind by many weeks even with open stores there now.

All this is discretionary spending. Non essential.
I know people raring to book Vegas trips and trips to South America .
Demand is there just that they will not allow it spent.

#81 Reality is stark on 05.29.20 at 6:34 pm

There are some key words to focus on very carefully on today’s blog.
Divorce. Gold.
When “W” and Greenspan were all giddy about the housing market as the USA was allowing manufacturing to disappear I was looking to get out of the US dollar. Kurt Richebacher was adamant that selling houses to one another does not make an economy.
Gold is the corollary of the US dollar so I began buying physical gold and burying it.
Now we come to the divorce part.
I would have taken quite the shellacking even though the fooling around was done by the other party.
Gold can be your friend long after the divorce is done and dusted. Don’t immediately go out and buy a Ferrari but when they can’t understand why you always have money that is their problem. After all they thought they cleaned you out.
Five years ago after applying the same principles you would realize that Canada was playing a similar game of musical houses. This time you sell your worthless Canadian dollars and buy USD.
By this time you’ve realized that marriage in the modern age is far too risky as you are now relied upon for all the entertainment and also responsible for making them happy. Previously that was a community function according to Esther Perel.
Understanding economic productive capacity is an integral part of figuring out how the world works.
Get ahead of the curve.
History repeats itself. You don’t have to be the dolt who buys Vancouver real estate in the early part of 2017.
You don’t need to make life difficult on yourself and always adjust for risk.
I am not an advocate for gold but it does come in handy when the circumstances justify the investment.

#82 Tony on 05.29.20 at 6:35 pm

People holding HXT have a big stake in the National Bank if you know what I mean. Like the people who were hung out to dry with HVI a large bank going under could have dire consequences.

#83 Penny Henny on 05.29.20 at 6:37 pm

#36 Phylis on 05.29.20 at 3:52 pm
Interesting. Housesigma has a ‘sold below bought’ viewing category now. How long has that been there?
//////////////

4 ever.
or at least two years

#84 Nonplused on 05.29.20 at 6:37 pm

Just when you thought 2020 couldn’t get any worse, Minneapolis goes up in smoke. What in particular was it about the death of George Floyd at the hands of ruthless police officers that was so different from all the other people who have died at the hands of ruthless police officers? Was it because he was black and the officers were white? That’s happened plenty of times before. Was it the straw that broke the camel’s back?
Or was it just a spark to ignite a rage that had been building for quite some time? Will the riots, sorry, “protests”, spread to other cities? Is the national guard really going to have to be brought in against US citizens now that the police have fled and their building has been burned down? And why do these sorts of “protests” always include looting?

Said one of the “protesters” interviewed on TV, the plan is that once the downtown is looted they will be coming for the suburbs to “take what we want”. They have a plan? This is organized? Or is this just one guy’s opinion? And how many people will get shot once they get there? Will the police be able to do anything about it? I am going to guess that the suburbs are not undefended as were the vacant downtown stores. It is probably not a good time to appear suspicious to nervous (and armed) homeowners.

And then we get news of this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/perfect-storm-auto-thefts-sweeps-us-during-covid-lockdowns

Idle hands are indeed the devil’s playground.

What new sorts of socialism and lawlessness will we see before 2020 draws to a close? Not paying the rent or mortgage was one thing, but looting a new TV and burning down your own city consequence free is a whole new escalation. Do any of these people even care about George Floyd? Or is it simply opportunistic? Why are they burning their own city down?

I feel increasingly like something evil this way blows. Covid seems now like maybe it was just a catalyst for much larger problems.

Tin foil hat time (hopefully you stockpiled some of that, you are going to need it if you keep reading). What if covid never was a big deal, but the secret government department of social psychologists knew that due to rising wealth inequality, overextended borrowing at all levels consumer, corporate, and government alike, and rising political, social, and racial tensions, that Minneapolis was inevitable, so the covid lockdowns were an opportunity to practice Martial law before the SHTF and nothing more? On the one hand I consider it unlikely TPTB are that smart, but on the other hand they spend a lot of time thinking about things. Much research gets done. Somewhere in Washington DC, probably in the basement of the White House, there is a filing cabinet that contains “The Truth About Everything”. They know whether or not aliens have visited (at least confirmed), global warming is real, how long fossil fuels will last, how old the earth is, whether it is flat or round, how to manage a fiat currency, who killed Seth Rich and JFK, and what would happen if there was a large scale nuclear war. Do you think they did not have a paper in there discussing what would happen if a large portion of the American public became desperate and homeless?

It reminds me of that section in “The Hitch-Hikers Guide To The Galaxy” series where they accidentally over-inject a witness with too much truth serum and then ask him to tell “the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth”. Eventually they cemented in the courthouse because the truth went on and on and on and nobody wanted to here it.

#85 Sail away on 05.29.20 at 6:39 pm

Ok, business update:

We’ve received our second wage subsidy of about $62k. Adding this to last month’s gives about $130k in subsidy.

Together with $40k interest-free loan, it’s adding up to some serious cash.

I’ve always been opposed to socialism, but have to admit it’s pretty nice having someone else pay all our bills. All we have to do is sit around and pretend to work and the rivers of money flow in. IH is on to something!

#86 Nonplused on 05.29.20 at 6:57 pm

#76 Keep Your Rent on 05.29.20 at 6:24 pm
Of course. What happens when the CERB, the mortgage deferrals and the emergency business loans/rent subsidies end? More contraction.

Explain to me how this doesn’t affect the stock market?

Already done. – Garth

—————————

Wait, whaaat???? How does somebody who can’t pay his rent come to care what the stock market does??? My rent (or mortgage) was always paid before I invested any money. That was the way it was done back when we had laws and social conventions.

I think the “Keep Your Rent” guy would probably fit in well with the “protesters” in Minneapolis. Just a theory. But don’t be creeping round my back door. The government may be planning to take my Swiss army riffle, but they aren’t going to take my machete, compound bow, cross bow, or baseball bat. Enter at your own risk.

#87 TurnerNation on 05.29.20 at 7:03 pm

As always..the plan already in place is being rolled out asap.
‘Smart cites’ = limited car travel and bike lanes. Fun in the wintertime.
Small businesses be damned another hit!
#Stayhome and order off Amazon- what they always told us.

They tout “livable cities”. How about empty businesses and the daily shootings in Toronto (we had a mass shooting of 4 people the other day).
Distancing is not going away until all the small business are gone. It is an economic tool.
Covid the Crown’s plan.
……

Toronto just got 40 km of expanded bike routes
blogTO·1 day ago

Toronto to expand cycling network by 25 km in bid to ensure physical distancing amid COVID-19
CBC.ca·1 day ago

Some Toronto business owners oppose the city’s plan for new bike lanes
blogTO·2 days ago

#88 Jag Mann on 05.29.20 at 7:08 pm

#9
At it’s low, my portfolio bottomed out at around -21% in march when compared to December 31, 2019 and has since recovered to the point where I am still down about 10 or 11%.

Admittedly I am probably a little heavier on oil and pipelines (Canadian Eh?) than I should be.

I am just trying to get an order of magnitude here.

Does this suggest that my planning is way out of line and needs adjusting?

I guess I am asking…how does my result compare with others? How am I doing comparatively? I have nothing from which to draw a frame of reference.

Comments?

———————————————–

Down 2% YTD as of yesterday. Garth is right – don’t panic sell, that’s iditoic.

What’s helped are a few mutual funds that have kicked ass – up 29%, 16%, 22%, 9% YTD. In case you care:

Dynamic Power Global Growth Class
Fidelity Founders Class
Fidelity Global Innovators Class
Fidelity Insights Class

#89 Jag Mann on 05.29.20 at 7:09 pm

and my spelling of “idiotic”….sheesh

#90 Nonplused on 05.29.20 at 7:17 pm

On Gold

I agree with Garth that gold is not transnational, and may never be again unless it’s some sort of electronic scheme.

But you should have one or two coins just simply because they are beautiful works of art, if you can afford them. There is something about holding a one ounce Canadian mint gold coin that can’t be described. It screams value. But it is not currency. Mark Dice did a video many years ago where he was trying to sell a Canadian 1 ounce gold coin for the stamp value of $50 and nobody would take him up on it, even though it was worth $800 at the time and is now worth $1700.

But you can put a bit of gold, say 5-10%, into your portfolio using funds like CEF and it is liquid. You can sell it all in a minute. You then take the electronic digits you received for selling it and vola’! Your Costco card works again. It also works good as a re-balancing anchor, much like cash, but it doesn’t pay a dividend.

I also like historic silver coins, because they are beautiful, but again not a real investment. More of a collector’s item. They always have the intrinsic value of the silver, but the ones that sell for a premium are rare and in good shape, or have some sort of story behind them like when the Canadian mint featured a totem pole that natives considered a war threat. Or the sailing ships. Or the locomotive. Those are the ones you want, the canoe is just too numerous. There are so many of them that worn ones aren’t worth more than melt. Still a lot higher (a lot higher) than they circulated for, but don’t be paying too much. Collecting coins is like collecting stamps or comics. You have to know what you are buying.

#91 Yukon Elvis on 05.29.20 at 7:19 pm

DELETED

#92 Lost...but not leased on 05.29.20 at 7:32 pm

Proof Canuckistan is broke and flu$$$h :

It is your duty to get ripped off for the greater good !!!

aka Contract law (and morseo consumer protection) is hearby null and void.

https://www.richmond-news.com/canadian-airlines-not-required-to-offer-full-refunds-for-cancelled-flights-1.24143417

#93 Garth Turner, Order of Canada on 05.29.20 at 7:38 pm

#3 Lead Paint on 05.29.20 at 1:39 pm
“Thank you Garth.”
—————————————————————

So I take it you will join the other blogs dogs in signing a petition to make the bearded mystic oracle and lone voice crying out in the Canadian financial wilderness a worthy recipient of the Order of Canada?

#94 Wrk.dover on 05.29.20 at 7:39 pm

11 billion, lost $100,000 at a time 110,000 times?
or
$200,000 at a time 55,000 times?
or
$1,000,000 at a time 11,000 times?

Impossible?

Now my head hurts.

#95 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 05.29.20 at 7:41 pm

#89 Nonplused on 05.29.20 at 7:17 pm

“On Gold…”
—————————————————————-

I bought 20,000 shares of Barrick when it cratered to below $20 and rode it to the high 30s and dumped. Easiest 200K I have ever made in my life. To boot after selling I went short because I knew the run couldn’t be sustained and made another $50k on the short side…

#96 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.29.20 at 7:45 pm

Ponz, my friend, never would I ridicule anyone who memorized the bible. I’ve read it several times myself, although to be fair, I scan the begetting upon begetting and am not totally clear on all lineages.
————————–
This was your response to a post by Dolce:

Give me a biblical prophecy that talks about bombs or guns or aircraft… or, actually, anything that didn’t exist at the time. An engine would be enough.

Otherwise, hokum. Basically all prophecies are hokum, eh?

#97 Alan Greenspan on 05.29.20 at 7:45 pm

#76 Keep Your Rent on 05.29.20 at 6:24 pm
“Of course. What happens when the CERB, the mortgage deferrals and the emergency business loans/rent subsidies end? More contraction.

Explain to me how this doesn’t affect the stock market?

Already done. – Garth”
————————————————————

The Federal Reserve has pumped trillions into the financial markets as have other central banks. Financial assets will never crater when you have central banks that will pump trillions into them to keep them up. Joe Blow on Main Street on the other hand…

#98 Duke on 05.29.20 at 7:52 pm

I agree with Garth. Their profit will shrink, or even they will end up having some loss, but they won’t fail. However, many people will do.

#11 Paterfamilias on 05.29.20 at 1:57 pm
# 3 Lead Paint.

Garth, you are going to be forced to the extremity of purchasing hats in a larger size.

No major bank will fail. Period. – Garth

#99 Alan Greenspan on 05.29.20 at 7:54 pm

62 Tony on 05.29.20 at 5:33 pm
“Gold should do well in 2021 when the American dollar is crucified to prevent a crash in the real estate market .”
————————————————————-

You have been drinking the Ron Paul Kool Aid…

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.29.20 at 7:55 pm

Nonplused!
just watching throngs of young people of all colors marching towards the White House.
The times they are a’changing, old man.

#101 Turner Shields on 05.29.20 at 8:01 pm

#47 Lisa on 05.29.20 at 4:37 pm

I am a big fan, Garth, and I know you are a white guy of a certain age. But do you really need to throw the “babe” in there when writing to a grown woman? Sheesh. No wonder you have so many deplorables in the comment section.

Ask Amy if she minds. My babe doesn’t. – Garth

John Turner used to smack women’s backsides…. hence Turner Shields were needed

Claimed “I’m a very tactile politician.”… I wonder what that makes Trump!

#102 Boomer Bill on 05.29.20 at 8:02 pm

#39 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.29.20 at 4:00 pm
—————————————————————

So you want me to stay away from my lakeside home that cost me $2 million? You better stay away from me cowboy cause there is nothing stopping me from going to my retreat on the lake.

#103 jess on 05.29.20 at 8:03 pm

“unprecedented” ?

I would say unprepared as this was predictable. The scientists/virus hunters who travelled to these caves for years analyzing bat guano /shove test swabs up bat butts have been warning for years.

..”The bugs that transmit these diseases share one thing: they originate in wild animals and pass to humans by a process called spillover. “

#104 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.29.20 at 8:11 pm

#186 Faron on 05.29.20 at 2:14 pm sez:

“#185 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.29.20 at 1:27 pm
#181 Job#1 on 05.29.20 at 12:30 pm sez:

I’m not retired enough to read the full articles. I read the abstracts of the seven anchor articles which is where the salient results are.”
——————————————-
Thanks for proving my point. You did exactly as predicted. Great job!

#105 fishman on 05.29.20 at 8:17 pm

Well, the Romans had a good long run at it. They used to say. “Gold is the muscles of an army”.
And whats wrong with being a prepper? Just a few short months ago we were the cat’s meow. So soon relegated to litter box. Hard to maintain hero status here.

#106 FreeBird on 05.29.20 at 8:23 pm

#47 Lisa on 05.29.20 at 4:37 pm
I am a big fan, Garth, and I know you are a white guy of a certain age. But do you really need to throw the “babe” in there when writing to a grown woman? Sheesh. No wonder you have so many deplorables in the comment section.

Ask Amy if she minds. My babe doesn’t. – Garth
———————
Perspective and context. Babe also refers to a woman or girl and someone inexperienced. Sounds like Amy. Too many things in life to be offended by. Just watch the news incl our own politicians. Big sheesh! From woman close to a certain age w/other half closer to a certain age (white but well tanned who can be mildly offensive daily ; )

#107 greyhound on 05.29.20 at 8:28 pm

Agree with comments about gold; would point out,
1. Gold miner Newmont Mining is in the S&P 500
2. US:NEM has a $47 billion market cap
3. Pays 1.7% after recently raising the dividend
4. You get capital appreciation in a gold bull market

#108 mnpr on 05.29.20 at 8:40 pm

This was an particularly good blog post, Garth. Thanks.
Gotta admit though that this event did rattle me somewhat (I’m 65). Been thru lots of other events and continued investing in balanced and diversified without any worry. This event though a bit more serious. Not the fact of the virus, but the way people have over-reacted to it. So I sold my REIT position, thinking that they will be impacted negatively for quite a while, and also because they appeared to produce a lot of capital gains income, which I expect the tax on to increase. Used the money to buy a utilities ETF. Kinda regret that now. Point is, I thought I was a seasoned investor, but this event spooked even me a bit.

#109 NFN_NLN on 05.29.20 at 8:40 pm

My recommendation, and how I was able to recover from this already is to sell Canada and buy US etfs. The US has proper leadership and acknowledges the importance of a functioning economy.

#110 Uncle Charlie on 05.29.20 at 8:50 pm

Speaking of online banks, any thoughts about Tangerine? I know they’re indirectly connected to Scotia, but was curious on your thoughts re: their stability. I also have an old account with CIBC but most of my money is now with Tangerine.

#111 Baxter on 05.29.20 at 9:10 pm

Hi Garth,

How safe are banks like Alterna, Motive Financials and LBC Digital? They all are CDIC insured though. Many people are putting their money for 2% interest.

Ever checked out CDIC’s assets? Might change your mind. – Garth

#112 Sail Away on 05.29.20 at 9:25 pm

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.29.20 at 7:45 pm

Ponz, my friend, never would I ridicule anyone who memorized the bible. I’ve read it several times myself, although to be fair, I scan the begetting upon begetting and am not totally clear on all lineages.

—————–

This was your response to a post by Dolce:

Give me a biblical prophecy that talks about bombs or guns or aircraft… or, actually, anything that didn’t exist at the time. An engine would be enough.

Otherwise, hokum. Basically all prophecies are hokum, eh?

—————–

Saying bible prophecies are hokum is not ridiculing anyone.

Now if someone actually believed in hokum prophesies, it is quite likely I’d rib that person. If they tried to foist a hokum prophesy on someone else, then I’d definitely ridicule them.

#113 Barb on 05.29.20 at 9:27 pm

Listen to Garth, Amy.
Good luck to you.
Really

#114 S on 05.29.20 at 9:31 pm

#84 Sail away on 05.29.20 at 6:39 pm

“I’ve always been opposed to socialism, but have to admit it’s pretty nice having someone else pay all our bills.”

Because this is not socialism. This is a whole new kind of animal being created. I wonder, if such enormous sums of cash are freely given away what is the true value of money?

#115 Stone on 05.29.20 at 9:36 pm

#72 yvrguy on 05.29.20 at 5:56 pm
guys, get Wealthica to keep track. It’s free and brilliant. There’s a performance tab that you can measure against Vbal.

It hooks directly into major online Brokers like Questrade, TD etc.

Data is your friend.

0.0% YTD. Woo!

———

I took a look at Wealthica. Interesting but also scary. They sell data at an aggregate level. As much as I like to rattle off in the comments section here, I draw the line at providing my data to some company for sale, even if it’s only at the aggregate level.

I already built out a spreadsheet that captures everything Wealthica can do minus having to input the current unit price and dividend payouts however with the formulas used, it takes less than 2 minutes for me to update when I need to do the monthly dividend update and less than 1 minute at any other time.

The flaw with Wealthica is that it doesn’t really capture everything that would incorporate someone’s net worth. It doesn’t capture bank accounts outside of a brokerage account, commuted value for a defined benefit pension, and a few other things.

Maybe it will have value one day but at this time, it’s a pass for me. For now, no reward but unlimited risk.

#116 not 1st on 05.29.20 at 10:04 pm

#77 Damifino on 05.29.20 at 6:24 pm
—-

Yeah I don’t get the maritimes at all. When PET and the Libs tried to kill the AB patch in the 80s, they were promptly booted from ever having more than a handful of seats there.

Yet when the Libs killed the eastern fisheries, ran all the young people off, blocked a pipeline from the west and now try kill their offshore oil in the name of climate change, they still vote for them.

#117 Genesis II on 05.29.20 at 10:10 pm

On gold:
Not a currency, just a monetary metal that has zero counter-party risk.
I bought some PHYS (etf) recently as insurance. I also own some junior miners as speculative investments – high risk/reward plays.
Not sure about the banking sector these days…the times they are a’changin, as Dylan said. Counters the Bible, ‘There’s nothing new under the Sun’…
Take your pick!

#118 Intermittent Lurker on 05.29.20 at 10:22 pm

I am a school Counselor and my wife also works in the school system. Job security is above average. I’m 46 and my wife is a bit older. We have a house that, at its peak was probably 1.2 mil. Bought it for 700 thousand in 2015. We fully expect it’s value to drop to 2015 levels at the very least. We have a 60 thousand mortgage. We have about 75000 in RSP’s and savings. Our pensions plans are considered good in normal times. Live in White Rock.

Assuming I don’t die of Covid, Who here thinks Covid will destroy people like me? Honest question.

#119 Lost...but not leased on 05.29.20 at 10:54 pm

Speaking of Sailing…

Looks like Capt. Trudeau is gonna re- name Canada as ” La Titanic”.

Cruise ships to Canada are banned through till Oct. 31.

This is interesting since, at least out of Vancouver BC……the last cruises are in FIRST week in October.

BC had previously banned them till July.

Looks like they want to signal and make absolutely 100% certain ZERO hope of any recovery for the crucial tourism $$$….. aka all other similar and related businesses read tea leaves and take note.

#120 Interstellar Old Yeller on 05.29.20 at 10:59 pm

#9 Ramshackle on 05.29.20 at 1:51 pm

Including dividends, I’m at -6.6% for the year. I suspect this lags the “Garth Portfolio” somewhat.

Amy, I sure hope that -35% is from March and that you’re not still down that much after the recovery we’ve seen.

#121 SoggyShorts on 05.29.20 at 11:13 pm

#9 Ramshackle on 05.29.20 at 1:51 pm
At it’s low, my portfolio bottomed out at around -21% in march when compared to December 31, 2019 and has since recovered to the point where I am still down about 10 or 11%.
…..
I guess I am asking…how does my result compare with others? How am I doing comparatively? I have nothing from which to draw a frame of reference.
*********
YTD not including dividends
-6.55% SOGG
-6.47% VEQT
-4.51% VGRO
-2.36% VBAL

#122 Lead Paint on 05.29.20 at 11:48 pm

#92 Garth Turner, Order of Canada on 05.29.20 at 7:38
—————————————————————

So I take it you will join the other blogs dogs in signing a petition to make the bearded mystic oracle and lone voice crying out in the Canadian financial wilderness a worthy recipient of the Order of Canada?

—————————————————————

I’m onboard but people don’t like to handle things I sign… Unleaded Paint might be a better option for this day and age.

#123 Steve French on 05.29.20 at 11:59 pm

Current status of Frenchie’s (TM) Balanced and Diversified, Fully-Liquid, DIY, Greater Fool-Inspired (TM) portfolio:

Since 20 Jan: negative – 6.2%
Year on Year: plus + 1.1%

Yawn.

Now back to zzzzzzzzzzz…..

#124 Russ on 05.30.20 at 12:33 am

Beautiful.

Let’s just say that Amy still has Hope.

From a Vancouver Island perspective , over 90% of the Blog Dogs are beyond Hope, an will always be…

Crowdie & Flopper are with me on this one.

Cheers, R

#125 Lead Paint on 05.30.20 at 12:38 am

#84 Sail away on 05.29.20 at 6:39 pm
Ok, business update:

We’ve received our second wage subsidy of about $62k. Adding this to last month’s gives about $130k in subsidy.
….
I’ve always been opposed to socialism, but have to admit it’s pretty nice having someone else pay all our bills. All we have to do is sit around and pretend to work and the rivers of money flow in. IH is on to something!

—————————————————————-

Well read up my friend, hope you are not fudging any numbers. From CRA:

“Consequences of incorrect or fraudulent claims
If you do not meet the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy eligibility requirements for a period, you will be required to repay any amounts you received for that period.
Penalties may apply in cases of fraudulent claims, including fines or even imprisonment.

If you artificially reduce your revenue for the purpose of claiming the wage subsidy, you will be required to repay any subsidy amounts you received, plus a penalty equal to 25% of the total value.”

It’s easy to impersonate a business owner and make it sound like running a business and getting government subsidies is akin to “sit around and pretend to work and the rivers of money flow”. I don’t know any business owners that would go on a blog and brag about that, even if it is anonymous. I call BS.

I suspect you’re faking being a wealthy business owner to denigrate business owners. I can’t think of any businesses right now where owners are ‘pretending to work’. Even if you have a business not devastated by COVID your staff is totally stressed out by job security, kids at home you have to educate while working, laid off spouses, societal problems, etc. and have a plethora of HR issues. That’s how I’ve spent my week – helping my employed staff deal with the multiple stresses in their lives.

I think you “sit around and pretend” to be a business owner. Real business owners should be flattered someone with your apparent intelligence condescends to pretend to be in their tribe. I’d suggest you do it for real and stop the fakery.

I suspect you are jealous of successful business owners and are trying to paint them as corrupt takers, and deserving of contempt. I suggest this is ‘projection’, or ‘attention seeking’, or petty slander of a begrudged juvenile.

In summary, I think you are fake.

#126 the Jaguar on 05.30.20 at 12:42 am

@#47 Lisa, careful or people might start calling you a ‘Karen’. Nothing wrong with the ‘babe’ reference. I see it as an endearment of sorts. Garth’s references often remind me of the comedian Dennis Miller, who cracks me up. I think they might be brothers. If you want to kick back and forget Covid, Banks raising loan loss provisions, and every other present day annoyance, here is a break and laugh from the tyranny. A very good interview with Miller. Recent, and covers a number of pressing issues of the day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzjEHRpuaZ0

#127 Tim123 on 05.30.20 at 1:23 am

It’s a tough situation for the woman. I will write some advice for some do it yourself investors. If your portfolio is down, the key is not to panic. The big 5 Canadian banks are solvent and will not have to cut their dividend even with the impending real estate crash coming to Canada. Having a bit of gold is good as there has been a lot of money printing by most countries around the world. I trade in the US so I am not as familiar with the Canadian stock market but the US markets have overheated a bit with the S&P 500 over 3000 so now is the time to start taking some profits as the risk vs reward is not good right now. When the market corrects in June the best approach will be to employ a barbell approach with some growth (I.e. Facebook, Google etc) and some early cyclicals and consumer discretionary. I hope this helps some of the investors out there.

#128 Nonplused on 05.30.20 at 1:32 am

#94 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 05.29.20 at 7:41 pm
#89 Nonplused on 05.29.20 at 7:17 pm

“On Gold…”
—————————————————————-

I bought 20,000 shares of Barrick when it cratered to below $20 and rode it to the high 30s and dumped. Easiest 200K I have ever made in my life. To boot after selling I went short because I knew the run couldn’t be sustained and made another $50k on the short side…

———————-

Mining companies are not exactly like buying gold, because they have all kinds of expenses and taxes and every other sort of thing. It is more like buying an oil company. But if you did well, good for you.

If you want a pure gold play, buy CEF or something like that. If you buy a mining company, you are buying a company, no different than say buying Shell or BP. Might work out, but it depends on supply and demand and production costs. CEF has the bars sitting in a vault so it is a pure play but don’t over-do it. A few 5-10% as a portfolio anchor. It is an alternative to cash, but like cash should not be a large part of the portfolio.

#129 Sally Granger on 05.30.20 at 5:16 am

DELETED

#130 Do we have all the facts on 05.30.20 at 7:59 am

Lost in all the chatter about Covid 19 is the growing influence that China is having on the global economy. While the USA has focussed on Iran as another Cuba and is trying to ruin their economy in an attempt to influence their political objectives, China stepped in and promised to invest $400 billion in the Iranian economy.

This investment was preceded by an investment of over $300 billion in Africa that began in 2005 and was followed by a commitment to invest an additional $60 billion made in 2018.

The Belt and Road initiative launched by China in 2013 has already invested over $200 billion in 38 countries across Europe and Asia and is proposing to invest a minimum of $1 trillion dollars between 2020 and 2027.

While hundreds of countries are expanding their economies with financial assistance from China our strong alliance with the USA has placed the Government of Canada in a difficult position.

Canada desperately needs to expand their exports to new markets around the world at a time when Chinese influence within these potential markets is growing by leaps and bounds. The last thing the Canadian economy needs right now is an escalation of our deteriorating relationship with China. We may not agree with the way Chinese political objectives are being achieved but their influence around the world makes improvement in our diplomatic and economic relationship with China an imperative objective.

In spite of the fact that every major company in the United States is heavily invested in China their political leadership seems intent on dividing the world into two camps. China is busy talking with their wallets while the USA is busy huffing and puffing about Chinese government involvement in 5G as a threat to national security. At some point leaders of the economic engine that is the USA will use their considerable influence to protect their substantial investment in China and their relationship with countries supported by Chinese investment.

It is time to chart our future course as we attempt to recover from our self inflicted wounds. Where does Canada fit in this rapidly changing world of ours? This is no time for fiddle lessons.

Remember when Canada used their diplomatic skills to promote peace around the world.

Now where did we put that playbook?

#131 TurnerNation on 05.30.20 at 8:13 am

#83 Nonplused for sure. In late March someone noted this. We are in the data gathering stage. A.I. and 5G will further that.
In some countries right now you must apply for govt permission and a QR code in order to leave the house. Global house arrest..and some people still don’t see it. They will happily get in the boxcars this time, so to speak. The veil has dropped, the gloves are off. War has been declared against every human.
South of equator got it the worst, curfews and military on the streets. We only got the troops in care homes..where the most lives were lost. Go figure.

Btw check our Pearson airport’s new rules for travelling..yep we never get our rights back in the same fashion. They really want our travel rights gone, #stayhome. Not even the cottage. Or walking your dog as our forum host got often yelled at. This is war,
Home lockdown. If you wish to travel, step into the airport/prison/medical ward first.

From late March, from elsewhere:

“We’re in an experiment. We’re now getting a glimpse of what a high tech, low carbon, limited mobility civilization looks like. The technocrats must be loving this – they’re going to have so much data to analyze after the experiment is over. Other major interest groups will use this experiment to further their agendas …”

#132 Cpa skeptic on 05.30.20 at 8:38 am

Garth and team,
Are there any links, research, etc that support that the banks loan loss provisions are enough to cover a base case scenario of 10%+ unemployment, half of the mortgage deferrals ending up in arrears, etc? Wondering what percentage of the deferrals are currently being provided for in the loan loss provisions? I am reading none currently?!
The consumer is in worse shape with debt than the 2008/2009 period. All this added together, would it not suggest to you this will be more severe for the banks than 2008/2009 and in turn the rest of the economy?

Everyone should in the financial advisory community claims its temporary. Big maybe. At what point and what data would that be refutable?

#133 BrianT on 05.30.20 at 8:46 am

#128Do-I think that ship has passed-yes I agree that if they can oust Trump this year the decline will be ramped up but this virus economic collapse has thrown a monkey wrench into the whole thing-the billionaires definitely are with Communist China and were winning the whole thing politically-now things look different-the USA has a gigantic military establishment and they are basically with Trump on this one-people don’t understand that the main reason Canada was able to be an open democratic society since WW2 was because we were protected by the USA and to a large extent controlled by the USA-this virus thing has given people a glimpse of what life would be like under Communist China domination-it won’t be pretty.

#134 TurnerNation on 05.30.20 at 8:50 am

Wait till T3 comes into power! Cuba eat your heart out. We got the system.
So far they’ve destroyed the oil, fishing, logging, tourism and real estate industries. We got anything left? Only a banking/insurance tax slave camp we are.
Sigh the Crown’s bankers own it all. Check the back of your coins…

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.20 at 8:52 am

@#63 Ponzie Plan

“Bullion is the emotional crutch of the prepper set, and goes good with semi-automatics, sheep manure and the Old Testament.”
—————————-
Garth,
You just insulted 33% of your reader-ship.
According to the latest Ipsos poll. +/- 3%

++++++

I didnt know there were that many sheep farms in Canada.

#136 Sail Away on 05.30.20 at 9:11 am

#123 Lead Paint on 05.30.20 at 12:38 am
#84 Sail away on 05.29.20 at 6:39 pm
Ok, business update:

We’ve received our second wage subsidy of about $62k. Adding this to last month’s gives about $130k in subsidy.

—————–

I’ve always been opposed to socialism, but have to admit it’s pretty nice having someone else pay all our bills. All we have to do is sit around and pretend to work and the rivers of money flow in. IH is on to something!

—————–

Well read up my friend, hope you are not fudging any numbers. From CRA:

“Consequences of incorrect or fraudulent claims
If you do not meet the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy eligibility requirements for a period, you will be required to repay any amounts you received for that period.
Penalties may apply in cases of fraudulent claims, including fines or even imprisonment.

If you artificially reduce your revenue for the purpose of claiming the wage subsidy, you will be required to repay any subsidy amounts you received, plus a penalty equal to 25% of the total value.”

It’s easy to impersonate a business owner and make it sound like running a business and getting government subsidies is akin to “sit around and pretend to work and the rivers of money flow”. I don’t know any business owners that would go on a blog and brag about that, even if it is anonymous. I call BS.

I suspect you’re faking being a wealthy business owner to denigrate business owners. I can’t think of any businesses right now where owners are ‘pretending to work’. Even if you have a business not devastated by COVID your staff is totally stressed out by job security, kids at home you have to educate while working, laid off spouses, societal problems, etc. and have a plethora of HR issues. That’s how I’ve spent my week – helping my employed staff deal with the multiple stresses in their lives.

I think you “sit around and pretend” to be a business owner. Real business owners should be flattered someone with your apparent intelligence condescends to pretend to be in their tribe. I’d suggest you do it for real and stop the fakery.

I suspect you are jealous of successful business owners and are trying to paint them as corrupt takers, and deserving of contempt. I suggest this is ‘projection’, or ‘attention seeking’, or petty slander of a begrudged juvenile.

In summary, I think you are fake.

—————–

Identity verified.

I suspect you’ve played a bit Clue. Trying to flush out info without truly committing.

My vocation and numbers above are indeed accurate. Why would you think fraud?

The truth is that these stimulus programs irritate me. When the collapse came, I was ready to take over most market share while the leveraged competition tanked- actually had some prelim conversations with other owners. Then free money started flowing to EVERYONE. And the good takeovers became less good.

We dismissed a few staff early and were fully prepared to dismiss more as needed to preserve capital.

Now… and here’s the important part: the government rolled out wage subsidy for us to employ staff who are not fully productive; essentially paying their salary just so we keep them employed. I would much prefer to just layoff/hire and manage my own business without govvie meddling… but as it is, we are using the wage subsidy exactly as intended. It’s sheer stupidity in my opinion, as a business owner. But my competition is taking the free money, so of course I have to maintain the competitive edge as well.

One tangent here: Fartz mentioned a requirement when applying for / taking the subsidy or loan to report on company furtherance of climate goals. My CFO wasn’t aware of this, and we didn’t find the clause. Fartz, if you’re reading, where did you see that?

You also assume I would spend time worrying about employee stress. Wrong. I stick to my business unlike the government who wants to get all up in everyone else’s business.

#137 MF on 05.30.20 at 9:15 am

128 Do we have all the facts on 05.30.20

Front page news is “lost in all the chatter”? Trump ran his entire election on that platform. Entire masses of Americans are thinking the exact same thing. It has been splattered on the news for almost 4 years. Millions if not billions of people are talking about all those issues around the world.

I gotta ask, what is the point of your posts?

In this case, we “have all the facts already”, thanks.

MF

#138 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.30.20 at 9:24 am

It’s too cold to come up to cottage country this weekend anyway.

SO JUST STAY IN YOUR REAL FRIGGIN HOME IN OAKVILLE, YOU IDIOTS!

#139 Ronaldo on 05.30.20 at 9:25 am

There could be a market for these for dead beat tenants who don’t pay their rent.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/medicalmuseum/3558880459/

#140 Bezengy on 05.30.20 at 9:35 am

I was at the post office yesterday. Some dude was giving the clerk a hard time because she refused to give him a mailbox for his girlfriend who lives in England. When he left I told her she needed the Canadian address so she could get CERB. She walks over and gives me a hug (so much for social distancing) and tells me with tears in her eyes she’s never seen so many gov cheques in her life. My guess is this is happening all across the country.

#141 Felix on 05.30.20 at 9:42 am

Those riots across America last night were just dogawful.

#142 Gruff403 on 05.30.20 at 9:59 am

#116 Intermittent Lurker
It won’t. Retired teacher and my income is more secure than when I was working since I now collect pensions. If you consider pension incomes as fixed income, then you actually flip the “balanced” formula. My own investments are all in dividend paying vehicles (equity). That makes my current ratio 75% fixed income and 25% equity. The only risk is how secure the pension money is.
BTW don’t be afraid to open a small secure HELOC and buy the banks. If the big 6 go down we’re all screwed. Do the math.
Amy-Garth is right on.

#143 David Hawke on 05.30.20 at 10:04 am

WTF gives when someone with 100K invested is able to receive GIS? No wonder Canuckistan is screwed!

TurnerNation, once again Spot-0n!

#144 Do we have all the facts on 05.30.20 at 10:05 am

# 131 Brian T

My point was that expansion of the Canadian economy post Covid 19 will be far more difficult if China decides to exercise their considerable influence against our objectives. If we firmly believe that China poses a serious threat to world peace then the consequences of holding the moral high ground must be accepted and we must chart a substantially different course.

All I was pointing out was that China has been building economic relationships with hundreds of countries around the world and these relationships will have a bearing on
trading relationships with Canada in the future.

The situation in Hong Kong is having an impact on how how the world views China. I was wondering if Canada could play a diplomatic role in resolving the current tensions before they escalate. The last thing the world needs right now is an escalation of conflict between the USA and China.

Cooler heads must prevail!

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.20 at 10:08 am

Just when you thought it was safe to go outside in India…..

MONKEY BLOOD THIEVES!

https://www.dianomi.com/click.epl?url_id=571921348&ru_variant_id=102

#146 Sail Away on 05.30.20 at 10:10 am

Lead Paint: it might disturb you, but I am actually the type of person running companies… and am fully willing to discuss the logistics of it. Most of my peer group and friends, apart from this blog, also lead companies. Some quite impressive ones. My childhood friend Mike of ‘Mike and the Rat’ is senior VP of a gigantic international engineering conglomerate.

Here’s something that might be surprising: drug use, primarily cocaine, is very prevalent amongst many productive business leaders. Much more common in Canada than in the US, in my experience. Maybe that’s due to general acceptance of drug culture here? Not sure.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.20 at 10:15 am

@#134 Sail away

The accounting firm I use publishes updates from the Feds for the Covid cash handouts

For Large and Medium sized Firms.
The last paragraph mentions “climate action plans”…..

LEEFF Guidelines:

Guiding Principles of LEEFF

Businesses seeking support must demonstrate how they intend to preserve employment and maintain investment activities.

LEEFF recipients will need to commit to respect collective bargaining agreements and protect workers’ pensions.

The LEEFF program will require strict limits to dividends, share buy-backs, and executive pay.

In considering a business’ eligibility, an assessment may be made of its employment, tax, and economic activity in Canada, as well as its international organizational structure and financing arrangements.
The program will not be available to businesses that have been convicted of tax evasion.

Recipients would be required to commit to publish annual climate-related disclosure reports consistent with the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, including how their future operations will support environmental sustainability and national climate goals.

#148 Dharma Bum on 05.30.20 at 11:03 am

We are getting closer to the time when even the most fearful and stupid among us will realize that the government screwed everybody over and grossly mishandled the management of this flu outbreak.
Time will tell.

#149 crossbordershopper on 05.30.20 at 11:15 am

when the borders open simply go to the USA, the weather is better, opportunities will be greater, they will pay you in real dollars, and taxes are lower,
and stuff costs less. people can talk about this and that, ya there are some deals in Canada, but in general I have found across the board the US is the only game in town
and don’t get me started on the markets, Does Canada really have a market, a few bank stocks and a bunch of junior resource stocks, and a few in the middle. no volume, no trading activity, and no capital raising.
how is Canada going to grow if companies cannot raise capital? exactly, it wont, its a basket case moving forward, get used to marginal tax rates of 60%, yes 60% they will stop indexing it and anyone who has a reasonable job will see how living in Canada isn’t all that great.
save your kids the trouble get started establishing yourself early in the USA, the frist few years will be difficult then it will be easier, you will know everyone and where everything is.

#150 Sail Away on 05.30.20 at 11:31 am

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.20 at 10:15 am
@#134 Sail away

The accounting firm I use publishes updates from the Feds for the Covid cash handouts

For Large and Medium sized Firms.

——————-

Ah, that’s it. Thanks.

We’re a small firm under 50 people so it’s not required.

#151 MF on 05.30.20 at 11:32 am

147 crossbordershopper on 05.30.20 at 11

The hallmark of a bad poster is when before they even write, when you see their alias, you know exactly what they are going to say.

^ this poster is a good example of that.

Blah blah us. Blah blah Canada. Rinse repeat.

MF

#152 MF on 05.30.20 at 11:37 am

#142 Do we have all the facts on 05.30.20 at 10:05 am

Yes but those problems are not unique to Canada.

There is a lot of international pressure being put on China currently. That is the other quiet -but not so quiet- story these days. Trump just said the obvious.

There are other markets out there…..

One of them has 1.3-1.4 billion people, is a democracy in South Asia and is rising quickly.

MF

#153 X-Ray Politico on 05.30.20 at 11:52 am

Globalists,leftists, anarchists, liberals, antifa, greens, Obama, Trudeau, all announced Trump’s impeachment 19 minutes after the 2016 inauguration.

Fox News: Minnesota Governor authorizes ‘full mobilization’ of state’s National Guard, says protests no longer about ….
https://www.foxnews.com/us/minnesota-national-guard-full-mobilization-george-floyd.amp?cmpid=prn_newsstand

The desperate left has coelesced into a nightmare cancer of hate. Hate for democracy, free speech, free movement and instead installing slavery by an elite cadre is now rancid with a frenzy of violence. Hate us the liberal battle cry. If Trump wins, they’re dead. This is the lefts last chance to take power. Desperation doesnt begin to describe it.

If you wonder why Trudeau is trying to set you at your neighbors throat, think no more.

Trump is a clear winner. Obama didn’t organize and train BLM and Antifa for no reason. The EU hates Trump. The Chinese control Trudeau. Need I go on?

#154 John on 05.30.20 at 11:58 am

No bail ins?
I guess it’s all a matter of semantics.

#155 Don Guillermo on 05.30.20 at 12:12 pm

#117 Lost…but not leased on 05.29.20 at 10:54 pm
Speaking of Sailing…
Looks like Capt. Trudeau is gonna re- name Canada as ” La Titanic”.
Cruise ships to Canada are banned through till Oct. 31.
This is interesting since, at least out of Vancouver BC……the last cruises are in FIRST week in October.
BC had previously banned them till July.
Looks like they want to signal and make absolutely 100% certain ZERO hope of any recovery for the crucial tourism $$$….. aka all other similar and related businesses read tea leaves and take note.
****************************************

Ever wonder how the killer whales know to enough like the cruise ships but to hate the oil tankers? Maybe they follow eMay on Twitter.

#156 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.20 at 12:12 pm

@#138 Berzengy
“…….. tells me with tears in her eyes she’s never seen so many gov cheques in her life. …..”

++++

I would have loved to been able to listen in on the Conference call he had with the Heads of the Banks in Canada.

This financial “sh!tshow isnt over by a lonnnnnng shot.

The best one I heard last night as the head of the farm labourers union suggested that in order to get the 8000 missing farm workers back ……
“Maybe we should continue to pay the CERB stipend to them AND their farm wages.

Anyone want a $10 apple?

I have an idea.
How about a lottery to remove CERB payments and offer the “winner/loser” a job on a farm…
“No?”
“Ok you dont qualify for EI either.”

#157 Ronaldo on 05.30.20 at 12:25 pm

#141 David Hawke on 05.30.20 at 10:04 am
WTF gives when someone with 100K invested is able to receive GIS? No wonder Canuckistan is screwed!

TurnerNation, once again Spot-0n!
——————————————————————
WTF gives when a couple who earn together $151,820 are still collecting full OAS and don’t get fully clawed back until they earn $246,720.

A single person with no other income and only OAS receives $916 in GIS for a total of $1529 per month and starts getting clawed back on income from investments at the rate of 50 cents for every dollar earned above that amount. The new rules allow them to earn $5000 from employment income without clawback. Full clawback occurs after income of $18,600 from investments and income (above $5000).

Does that seem fair?

And you can bet that if the governmentt decided to clawback the OAS altogether for persons earning over $50000, there would be a lot of kicking and screaming from those who criticize the unfortunate ones who are having to collect GIS. Not all people who are on GIS are deadbeats and most would rather not be there. There are many different circumstances that can place people in this situation. Don’t be so quick to judge.

#158 Don Guillermo on 05.30.20 at 12:26 pm

@#134 Sail away

Recipients would be required to commit to publish annual climate-related disclosure reports consistent with the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, including how their future operations will support environmental sustainability and national climate goals
******************************************
Easy to comply … just report that you’ll have all your employees switch to those “uh paper — like drink box water bottles sort of things”

#159 mousey on 05.30.20 at 12:27 pm

#9 – Since you asked, I am down 7% year to date and I have a balanced and diversified portfolio, so it doesn’t sound like your return is off the mark.

#160 NoName on 05.30.20 at 12:39 pm

#154 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.30.20 at 12:12 pm
@#138 Berzengy
“…….. tells me with tears in her eyes she’s never seen so many gov cheques in her life. …..”

++++

I would have loved to been able to listen in on the Conference call he had with the Heads of the Banks in Canada.

This financial “sh!tshow isnt over by a lonnnnnng shot.

The best one I heard last night as the head of the farm labourers union suggested that in order to get the 8000 missing farm workers back ……
“Maybe we should continue to pay the CERB stipend to them AND their farm wages.

Anyone want a $10 apple?

I have an idea.
How about a lottery to remove CERB payments and offer the “winner/loser” a job on a farm…
“No?”
“Ok you dont qualify for EI either.”

EI is so yesterday, I was off 8wks I filled application for ei and got cerb instead…

#161 BrianT on 05.30.20 at 12:42 pm

I see our fearless leader is babbling on like a child again-I guess wrecking out economy wasn’t enough for the guy-what a joke.

#162 Phylis on 05.30.20 at 1:02 pm

Wonderful, another data point of peak comment past.

#163 IHCTD9 on 05.30.20 at 1:07 pm

#141 David Hawke on 05.30.20 at 10:04 am

WTF gives when someone with 100K invested is able to receive GIS? No wonder Canuckistan is screwed.
— —-

That’s not the half of it. I noticed a big CCB payment hit the bank account last week. Looks like a retro payment for an increase that took place earlier this year.

I decided to tally up how much the government handouts and tax return amounts add up to for our household this year up till the end of June.

$16,300.00 in six months. This for a 6 figure household income family with no debt, a long paid off house, and enough savings to just sneak into the 7 figures by retirement (hopefully).

No means testing was ever done, just spray the Trudeau free cash. We keep a 20k minimum emergency fund for just such occasions as this CV- 19 mania.

We haven’t even had to touch it.

#164 Sail Away on 05.30.20 at 1:22 pm

#156 Don Guillermo on 05.30.20 at 12:26 pm
@#134 Sail away

Recipients would be required to commit to publish annual climate-related disclosure reports consistent with the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, including how their future operations will support environmental sustainability and national climate goals

—————–

Easy to comply … just report that you’ll have all your employees switch to those “uh paper — like drink box water bottles sort of things”

—————–

That’s one response. Mine would be simpler: “We have no intention of changing anything.” Submit.

Beaurocracy only concerns itself with paperwork compliance, not the content. I’ve made a lot of profit exploiting this. Might explain sometime.

#165 Sail Away on 05.30.20 at 1:24 pm

Well, it looks like social distancing in the US is totally yesterday’s news.

Moving on…

#166 VicPaul on 05.30.20 at 5:58 pm

#128 Do we have all the facts on 05.30.20 at 7:59 am

I’ve subtly intimated this before but no longer…you are a shill for the Chinese government – undoubtedly, one of many who are ramping up the Communist propaganda/disinformation machine.

You say – “The Belt and Road initiative launched by China in 2013 has already invested over $200 billion in 38 countries across Europe and Asia and is proposing to invest a minimum of $1 trillion dollars between 2020 and 2027.

While hundreds of countries are expanding their economies with financial assistance from China our strong alliance with the USA has placed the Government of Canada in a difficult position.”

*Stated as if it’s some form of great benevolence by the ccp bestowed upon “friends” – a laughable misrepresentation; akin to suggesting a python is merely “hugging” the wild boar.

You say – “Canada desperately needs to expand their exports to new markets around the world at a time when Chinese influence within these potential markets is growing by leaps and bounds.

* The chinese influence is expanding, not because they’re a trusted ally – but rather, leveraged manipulator/lender of last hope .

You say – “The last thing the Canadian economy needs right now is an escalation of our deteriorating relationship with China. We may not agree with the way Chinese political objectives are being achieved but their influence around the world makes improvement in our diplomatic and economic relationship with China an imperative objective.

* This was your undoing – a suggestion that we just accept their manipulative power and acquiesce. To minimize the consistent affronts to personal freedoms around the world (not to mention their smothering surveillance of their own people) propagated by one centralized, communist government – is your message, they’re powerful, so just do what they say?

“(china) has constructed an Orwellian high-tech surveillance state and a sophisticated internet censorship system to monitor and suppress public criticism. Abroad, it uses its growing economic clout to silence critics and to carry out the most intense attack on the global system for enforcing human rights since that system began to emerge in the mid-20th century.”

“…the Chinese government stands out for the reach and influence of its anti-rights efforts. The result for the human rights cause is a “perfect storm”—a powerful centralized state, a coterie of like-minded rulers (* like-minded or forced by indebtedness?), a void of leadership among countries that might have stood for human rights (* hello Justin T/Canada), and a disappointing collection of democracies willing to sell the rope that is strangling the system of rights that they purport to uphold.”

“More than any other government, Beijing has made technology central to its repression.” -Kenneth Ross

…and shills like you question why the U.S. has taken such a hard-line on Huawei. Nevermind, nothing to see here…

With me, you have zero credibility – although, living here in a democracy, we allow you to spread your BS. Can I go to china to bad mouth the ccp?

M56BC

#167 Getting away this weekend on 06.01.20 at 1:43 pm

#138 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!

I gotta say, all you are doing for me is planting the seed to go out to the cottage…. you keep bring it up and all week and I keep thinking how nice it will be to get away for the weekend. See you soon brother!