How it ends

Some years ago, when this blog was still pithy (instead of just pissy) we summed it all up this way: the rich hold assets. The rest hold debt.

Well, the virus sure has underscored that piece of news. Since hitting a panicked low in the third week of March, the US stock market has careened higher 39%. In nine weeks. Stunning. In fact if you went to sleep a year ago and snoozed through the entire global pandemic mess, awakening this morning, you’d think equities just had a great 12 months – up 11.2%.

Balanced and diversified portfolios are recovering well, despite crashing interest rates hurting fixed income returns and the virus rattling REITs. Oil prices have come back from the grave. Commodity prices have revived. Volatility, as measured by the Vix, has cratered by more than half. So the gauges of fear are being turned off while the measures of confidence are soaring.

This is Bay Street. Wall Street. It’s not Main Street. One thing we told you Covid would do is widen the gap between investors and borrowers, between those who own real assets and those who hold financial ones. Endless buckets of liquidity from governments and central bankers have flooded capital markets, created demand for tradable securities, floated the bankers and backstopped corporate woes. As a result, stocks are up. ETFs based on them are peachy. Credit is flowing normally. And all the grief the virus brought has been dumped on the shoulders of others. Deficit-addled governments. Millions of newly-unemployed. Hundreds of thousands who can’t pay their home loans. Besieged small businesses. And, soon, mortgaged homeowners.

This week an interesting war’s played out. Re/Max marketing dudes on one side. The country’s housing agency on the other. The realtors insist housing markets will revive fast from Covid, that prices have so far held steady and a limited number of new listings will keep it that way as buyers stream back from their social distancing. CMHC boss Evan Siddall is warning talk like that’s irresponsible, dangerous and misleading.

“Some vocal real estate advisors have labelled us ‘panic-inducing and irresponsible,’ saying essentially that house prices don’t go down. They’re whistling past the graveyard and offering no analysis,” he Tweeted. “Please question the motivation of anyone who wants you to believe prices will go up (yes, up) with our economy in slow motion, oil being given away, millions of Canadians on income support and a greater % of mortgages not being paid than we’ve seen since the Great Depression.”

Yesterday this pathetic blog listed some of the reasons Siddall makes sense, and Re/Max blows smoke. When the people who have given up are counted, the jobless rate is 20%. Almost a million families can’t, or won’t, pay their mortgages. The savings rate is below 1% and four-in-ten households went into this mess living paycheque-to-paycheque. Unemployment is not going back to 5% by Christmas. Or even next Christmas. And look at bank earnings reports this week – one after another the big guys are setting aside massive amounts for bad loans while revealing a crash in profits. The appetite for risk is falling by the hour. People who can’t pay their mortgages are credit risks.

The Main Street economy is in dogawful shape thanks to politicians who killed it, then paid people not to work. Jobs won’t coming back soon. A third or more of all small businesses will not reopen. Restaurants can’t survive on 50% social-distancing capacity. The tourism season is finished. Hotels dying. Convention hosts, hockey players and rock stars living under bridges now that the audiences are gone. And how many part-time gigs disappeared when the Calgary Stampede, the PNE or the Ex in Toronto were scrubbed?

What Siddall is saying is that those who claim real estate’s immune from this are delusional. Or worse. They’re lying. Houses sell to people who have (a) jobs and (b) access to credit. With unemployment likely to stay at double-digit levels for a long time, and the banks under historic pressure to reduce risk and cleanse their loan portfolios, how are we going back to peak house?

Sure, seriously reduced supply and greater-fool demand will keep prices aloft for a while, but the yellow flag is out. CMHC issued a special warning in the last few days for first-time buyers. If prices fall – even modestly, it said, the indebted will be creamed.

But we already knew that.

188 comments ↓

#1 Ernesto on 05.28.20 at 4:22 pm

1st, like Trump

#2 TurnerNation on 05.28.20 at 4:27 pm

If anyone doubts this is global WW3 they unleashed on us, with all of us told we are the ‘bio weapon’ let’s look at the language we were taught oh so well. All are Military type terms:

1. Contract Tracer. What is a tracer?

“Tracer ammunition (tracers) are bullets or cannon-caliber projectiles that are built with a small pyrotechnic charge in their base”

2. Disease Vector. Like radar vectors?

3. Distancing – as a blog dog mentioned yesterday. As per Wikipedia this is combat term:

“Distancing is the appropriate selection of distance between oneself and a combatant throughout an encounter. Distancing is significant in an altercation as it determines both attack and defence options for all parties involved.[1] Timing and tactics are also important elements of combat which are often used in conjunction with distancing by experienced martial artists.[2]”

—And we have taped off Hot zones as minefields: these would be your children’s playgrounds.
— Instead of You are with us or with the t3rr0rists, we have We are all in this together.

This is war, your own citizens have become armies, attacking you. If you doubt the power of war propaganda:
https://www.100milefreepress.net/news/b-c-man-with-alberta-plates-gets-car-keyed-and-aggressive-note/


Jess posted this last blog…keep an eye on your food supply they are starting small, with mink. No science only beliefs:

“THE HAGUE, NETHERLANDS — Dutch authorities on Thursday announced a nationwide ban on the transport of mink after mink farm workers were believed to have contracted coronavirus from the small mammals.”

#3 Jerr on 05.28.20 at 4:34 pm

I believe everything this man has written on this blog today!!!!!

#4 IGV on 05.28.20 at 4:35 pm

Garth
The S&P 500 contains 500 companies.

Did you not want to mention the delusion? Four companies making up 25% of the entire index? Which accounted for most of the gains?

As you skip to the next sentence claiming “diversity”.

Not sure why you don’t ever acknowledge that. Whenever I talk to an investment advisor and mention that the deer in the headlights is quite stunning.

Why dont you mention Buffet dumping 7 billion in assets last quarter?
Or Blackrock who has 7 trillion setting up a massive short position?

I guess its all good-till it isn’t.

Like Nortel.

#5 FreeBird on 05.28.20 at 4:38 pm

Blood donations still welcome…and needed. Most have time now and you get snacks after.

https://blood.ca/en/stories/need-blood-rising-and-we-need-every-appointment-filled

#6 Calgary on 05.28.20 at 4:38 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/us/politics/barr-5g.html

Attorney General William P. Barr has already said it clearly. It all about US economic dominance and control.

#7 jsto on 05.28.20 at 4:39 pm

I am curious to see how long before RE market reacts to the historic slump in sales in BC.

#8 JacqueShellacque on 05.28.20 at 4:41 pm

“Endless buckets of liquidity from governments and central bankers have flooded capital markets, created demand for tradable securities”

So how does this ^^ end?

#9 trexx on 05.28.20 at 4:45 pm

Shouldn’t the title to the intro tale be “How it starts”, not “How it ends”?

#10 Dave on 05.28.20 at 4:45 pm

My sister built a brand new Best Western hotel in Calgary…just opened up earlier this year. Empty…empty…empty

When can she look forward to guests? Sometime in 2020 wishful thinking???

#11 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 05.28.20 at 4:47 pm

Wow
Thank Dog i got luckie a few times with money thingies
and can try to be kind and take care of animals
now
i look forward to your and your partners words

#12 Last on 05.28.20 at 4:47 pm

Last posting!

#13 Looking to Buy on 05.28.20 at 4:47 pm

Hey Garth,

Love the analysis and have been a fan of your site for a long time.

Hoarding cash and sitting … waiting.

And ready to buy …

Any deals in Lunenburg?

#14 Olafb79 on 05.28.20 at 4:52 pm

Because…
The stock market just like home market
It can only go up, right??

#15 TW on 05.28.20 at 4:54 pm

I can’t wait to watch the meltdown in RE.

#16 yvr_lurker on 05.28.20 at 4:56 pm

What Siddall is saying is that those who claim real estate’s immune from this are delusional. Or worse. They’re lying. Houses sell to people who have (a) jobs and (b) access to credit. With unemployment likely to stay at double-digit levels for a long time, and the banks under historic pressure to reduce risk and cleanse their loan portfolios, how are we going back to peak house?

——

Agreed about housing. However, then again I think that Mr. Market at the moment is also delusional and once the Gov’t stimulus money is all spent and the true reality of the grim situation sets in (foreclosures in the fall, business failings, 15% structural unemployment rate), Mr. Market will have a major reset.

#17 Stan Brooks on 05.28.20 at 4:57 pm

Poor real estate schmucks.

From the Audi and fancy vacations to forever unemployment/pretty much guaranteed.

Easy money is gone and the scream of the empty stomach is bad… really bad.

One reaps what one sows. Hope they saved something for the rainy days ahead, though I highly doubt it.

These guys had it good for a very long time, courtesy of the incompetent idiots in power and their disastrous policies and now refuse to acknowledge reality.

It is over, the big housing bonanza is finally over.
What is left is pain.

Did I say to load on lubricants?

Cheers,

#18 Leigh on 05.28.20 at 4:57 pm

Wonder if those who bought houses they couldn’t afford are the same ones who wear masks they dont need and doesn’t do anything for them or anyone around them!

#19 Leo on 05.28.20 at 5:02 pm

There has been a lot of talk about UBI in Canada.

The way I see it, there is a huge hurtle that no one seems to have acknowledged. Canada needs more people. Reproduction levels of our citizens are not high enough, so we have been relying on immigration. How that is affected after C19 is hard to say, but UBI would be a huge draw for immigration. Who wouldn’t want to come to Canada and not have to work? Unless we say immigrants aren’t eligible for UBI, or in other words, they would need to get jobs and therefore help support the people who do get UBI. In that case, I can see it being more difficult to find willing immigrants.

The problem of course is how will UBI be paid for? Canada already has a large number of people/groups that get more than they contribute to society. I can’t help but think that UBI will increase the ratio in favor of the get side… add immigration to that mixture, and I don’t see how the people who contribute are going to be able to manage the weight of our growing debt and the expenses that UBI would bring.

#20 Nick on 05.28.20 at 5:04 pm

.

Siddall will be proved wrong by BC’s lower brainland home buyers and sellers.

Watch it Siddall!

#21 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 05.28.20 at 5:05 pm

A long time ago when I was fully plugged into YOLO,living the life while paying one credit card with another I discovered the “Money Sense” magazine and was willing to listen. Fast forward a few years later now out of debt and looking of course to buy a nice big house….discovered this blog and it made sense to me..so bought a townhouse we could easily afford with money left over. I followed the free advice here and wish more people would listen. We would not be in this situation as a society if more will , but there’s always hope, we lead by example .

#22 Marco on 05.28.20 at 5:06 pm

DELETED

#23 Glass Top on 05.28.20 at 5:07 pm

Has anyone ever realized that a pretty high end stainless steel glass top range costs less than some BBQs with a fraction of the quality, longevity, complexity and reliability. Fewer features and no electronics on them BBQs either.

I’m thinking I will replace my defunct 3 burner with a new range parked on my deck. I can shovel some wood pellets in for flavor. Lol.

Admittedly a bit tangential, but reflective of our crazy Covid times.

#24 paul on 05.28.20 at 5:08 pm

#9 Stan Brooks on 05.28.20 at 4:57 pm

Its been a great run, stashed the cash,been there before.

#25 Felix on 05.28.20 at 5:09 pm

“The Main Street economy is in dogawful shape…”

An excellent and useful neologism, Mr. Turner.

“Dog” clearly magnifies “awful” tenfold, if not more.

Like a sewage pipe bursting and flooding your home with feces. Truly, despicably disgusting.

Accurate and concise. Speaks to the core of what dogs really are.

Well done.

#26 Do we have all the facts on 05.28.20 at 5:19 pm

Doubtful if the supply of existing units offered for sale will decline once government aid programs end. The 270,000 new housing units currently under construction is an all time record for Canada so supply is certainly capable of meeting demand even in a strong market.

If future housing construction is adjusted to reflect reduced demand it would only add to our unemployment woes. As I pointed out yesterday real estate, construction and financial/insurance services form a big chunk of Canadian GDP. We are in a serious pickle and no amount of overly positive chit chat will lead to a solution.

Even if mortgage rates were reduced to zero it is doubtful that the average price of housing could increase until unemployment was substantially reduced. Unemployed people do not apply for mortgages.

A downward correction in the average price of housing is inevitable. The extent of this correction remains to be seen.

That’s just the way it is these days!!

#27 Freedom First on 05.28.20 at 5:21 pm

A lot of people may have been so busy in their own little world they could not or would not see it coming. Ignorance. Is it a virus?

Freedom First

#28 Wrk.dover on 05.28.20 at 5:22 pm

All of those corporations are sooo much better off with 20% fewer consumers!

Stock valuations are sooo easy to understand!

Customers, Meh who needs them?

#29 Not 1st on 05.28.20 at 5:22 pm

It’s true Garth. S&P is tracking a disruption not a recovery. FANGs have made out like bandits at the expense of mom and pop.

Anyway the only things that people didn’t refuse to pay was their food and utilities. Great place to stick your money.

#30 binky barnes on 05.28.20 at 5:22 pm

Don’t worry, Mr. Justin Trudeau has a plan for all of this.

BB

#31 Shooter on 05.28.20 at 5:23 pm

We were not taught by Garth when in school. We learn the hard way. Why is it when people are approved for a certain amount of mortgage money they have to buy for a least that amount? Dive as deep as you can. That’s why most are under water now.

#32 Jerry on 05.28.20 at 5:24 pm

Your recent posts have nailed Canada in the year 2020 perfectly, Garth —- Superb commentary!

#33 Keep Your Rent on 05.28.20 at 5:26 pm

I kept my rent and I forgot that my landlord was a mafia affiliate. Therefore, not only was I evicted but he took my rent.

#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.28.20 at 5:28 pm

#207 Calgary on 05.28.20 at 3:41 pm
#204 “What do Sweden and Finland have that Canada could not achieve?”

Sweden and Finland have leaders with good brains.
———————————-
What’s the sudden infatuation with Sweden?

#35 Dolce Vita on 05.28.20 at 5:30 pm

“I looked, and behold, an ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Death; and Hades was following with him.

Authority was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by the wild beasts of the earth.”

——————————————-

…it could get worse Garth.

#36 Timmy on 05.28.20 at 5:31 pm

Condos in Vancouver and TO will be toast. Who wants to ride an elevator up 15 floors if you don’t know who’s been there before you? Also, many businesses going remote laying off staff, that drives down commercial real estate, so why live in congested downtown in a tiny space when you can move out 5K and save tonnes of money? Air B and B will be decimated.

#37 CJohnC on 05.28.20 at 5:33 pm

#18 Leigh

Your an idiot. If a naked man stands beside you and pees you are going to get wet. If he is wearing pants, then only he will get wet.

The science behind masks is proven. No debate.

Your welcome.

#38 Ambi and Vasu on 05.28.20 at 5:33 pm

Have been watching real estate listings for sometime now in my area.
Starting from 20 to 30 to 40 daily listings since we started watching a month or so back, now the listing have gone upto 70 to 80…….
Is the reality of market sinking in ….

#39 Trumpocalypse2020 on 05.28.20 at 5:36 pm

Attention WUL:

I have been made aware that David Frum has created a new book using my name.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/24/trumpocalypse-review-donald-trump-david-frum-bush-axis-evil

I would like to discuss engaging your services to pursue a suit for copyright infringement.

This could be for either $100 Billion USD or $2,000 CDN for CERB money in my opinion, subject of course to your legal insights.

I await your opinion, and trust that you participate in legal aid services in these times and will be able to visit virtually with me at my retreat for consultation.

PREPARE

#40 Jokkon on 05.28.20 at 5:42 pm

How is the stock market different from RE? Why is it wrong to assume RE will keep going up but not stocks?

Liquidity is the main reason why its better to stay invested in stocks than RE. Both will likely eventually go up in the long time horizon.

Stocks are more liquid and you can get out a lot easier than RE. When you run into liquidity problems, you can quickly sell some stocks to help out. On the other hand, you can’t sell half or a quarter of your house in times of trouble.

#41 looking up on 05.28.20 at 5:45 pm

Such a strange economy we have. Completely dependent on selling and buying each other houses.

Trading dollars, ponzi scheme whatever. Obviously the Real Estate Industry has no choice but to keep propping it up.

I logical to me that there has to be a correction but then again I thought OJ was guilty…

#42 Jake on 05.28.20 at 5:46 pm

“And look at bank earnings reports this week – one after another the big guys are setting aside massive amounts for bad loans while revealing a crash in profits.”

What are the chances our banks cut or even worse suspend dividends?

Zero. – Garth

#43 broader mind on 05.28.20 at 5:48 pm

My comment not posted. Apologize if it seemed offside.

#44 Billy Boy on 05.28.20 at 5:49 pm

Isn’t “endless liquidity from central banks”..DEBT?

So….It’s ok to ride the digits out of thin air and feel smug about a big gain of 39% from the lows BUT the poor buggers who are trying to eke out a living and a roof over their heads who in say 50% of the time had no choice but to get in over their heads in DEBT?

I guess it’s what side you are on..like drugs OXYCOTIN was LEGAL HEROIN and ok to sell and make profits on YET real heroin was not as the 1% wasn’t directly profiting? (Oh yeah, they made money selling guns, etc and supporting the war on drugs.)

So profiting off GOVERNMENT DEBT is GOOD, PERSONAL DEBT IS BAD.

Does anyone have any morals? How much are you taking with you?

Last night in Minneapolis was the preview of whats to come all over when the support tap is turned down or off. I hope all the cash you made in this false run up has given you enough people to get out of dodge like the other 1% has to New Zealand, bunkers or maybe even Lunenburg…..enjoy your cake.

Was it worth it?

#45 the Jaguar on 05.28.20 at 5:50 pm

The Real Estate Association and its shills can object all they want, but the tea leaves say otherwise.

Life Rule #1 is ‘Watch what people do, not what they say”. The Big Banks will increase their loan loss provisions in lockstep. They hate doing that. It ruffles their financial statement feathers and telegraphs vulnerability. But their ‘intel’ on who is problematically indebted, where and in what tall grass those same people are hiding in, and especially how much those people might hurt them and their shareholders is razor sharp. This isn’t their first rodeo. Not with consumer or business collapse. Listen carefully and you can hear the sound of their wagons being positioned in circular position and the heavy ammo being unloaded. They know they ride at dawn.

Doesn’t mean they won’t do everything they can to save as many as they can. They have bigger hearts than you might imagine. Ask them about their corporate donations.
But in this unfortunate journey we are currently on the reality is that many jobs won’t come back for a long while and maybe not at all. Labour quality will also play a role as many will be unable to transition to other roles. It doesn’t get a lot of attention but that issue has been in the background long before Covid arrived. The psychological impact of not having a job and contributing to society is far more serious than many know. Not only for those without jobs, but for everyone in society. One can only hope that intelligent people everywhere will take measures to reduce crash impact results for themselves and their friends and families. Be proactive on the issue. Kryptonite isn’t just something in a Superman comic book. It’s real and waiting out there for us in the tall grass.

#46 Dr R on 05.28.20 at 5:51 pm

Garth the rich May hold assets for now but the government will take them and redistribute accordingly

Tax on home capital gains and other capital gains inclusion raises. Wealth tax (the BC school tax is the first example of this). Is there anyway that holders of assets can avoid a fleecing especially now that parliament is no longer allowed to function and a population that voted right wing by popular vote has seen their party marginalized by a leftie coalition.

#47 Alex on 05.28.20 at 5:51 pm

I do wonder what impact the Hong Kong situation might have on shoring up YVR real estate. If I was living in HK right now, I would think the writing is pretty clear on the wall and want to get the heck out out.

#48 Dolce Vita on 05.28.20 at 5:56 pm

Karma.

ACTION:
Twitter put a fact check on one of the Donald’s Tweets.

REACTION:
Trump Executive Order: “Social media can be punished” by FTC and FCC.

a.k.a., Facebook, Twitter and Google, especially with YouTube.

————————

I think if Trump could, he’d punish Bezos too but he’s what’s keeping Consumer Spending somewhat alive in the Excited State of America, so for now, he’s safe (?).

Apple and Microsoft laying low, smart move; otherwise, there goes the NASDAQ.

#49 Billion Dollar Whale on 05.28.20 at 6:02 pm

Still seeing multiple offers in Canadian RE hotspots (GTA, Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, Okanagan).

May sales in BC tracking 12% above last year assessed values.

Wake me up when this changes.

#50 conan on 05.28.20 at 6:04 pm

The market is showing a lot of irrational exuberance. I would not be surprised if we are about to start another V.
Articles can easily be written about how pooched most economic sectors are. There is no shortage of scary economic numbers out there.

I am going to be putting the magnifying glass on China. The USA is talking about revoking Hong Kong’s special trade status, meaning treat them like they are part of China. That would be bad news, and more than likely cause a real estate crisis, that in turn creates a banking crisis, which in turn creates an employment crisis, which in turn, would lead to a political crisis.

Hong Kong would go full Mad Max.

#51 Steven Nicolle on 05.28.20 at 6:11 pm

Totally agree. Just a question though. When the government stops providing liquidity what will happen to the stock exchange?

#52 akashic record on 05.28.20 at 6:11 pm

Bay Street, Wall Street and real estate exists in the same economy.

Who claim any part is immune from what’s coming are delusional. Or worse. They’re lying.

#53 Lost...but not leased on 05.28.20 at 6:12 pm

Here in Lower Mainland:

Went to one pub…NO SIGN IN req’d…staff wore masks…tables spread out…ie at least 50% capacity GONE
Have a short one page menu.

Other pub…had a sign- in sheet ….which we ignored.
Staff wore face shields…tables spread out…again at least 50% capacity gone….simple one page menu

Great Clips…will only do simple hair cuts..no shampoo, no bangs, no facial hair trim..

#54 Wrk.dover on 05.28.20 at 6:14 pm

Another thing, when they lay off a significant portion of their workforce, I usually see the stock value jump. Why have any employees at all?

What happened to trained employees being an asset.

Boeing spends an undogly amount on employee upgrading, monthly. Watch that one go uppa when they let a whack of them go this month.

Actually Boeing is once again around 66% of record high value, with no cure for the Max, no demand for spare parts, and cash flow bigly negative.

Buy and wait? Where’s Warren? Doh!

#55 Faron on 05.28.20 at 6:16 pm

Heres my guess for house price over time although not sure if the parametric shape is correct at the start of the drop:

When t = DOM

P = Po – Pf * (1 – e ^ -(k(t – DOM)/DOM))

t is time in days since list
Po is listing price
Pf is floor price
P is market value
k is fear factor

#56 Sydneysider on 05.28.20 at 6:17 pm

#19 Leo on 05.28.20 at 5:02 pm

“Canada needs more people”

This country been run for a while now on the basis of a giant ponzi scheme, whereby immigrants pick up the debt for prior deficits, and hope in their turn to pass on an even greater debt to the next wave of immigrants.

Since I arrived in 1982, the population has increased by 50% while my weight has increased by about 15%. Do you infer that I need more food or less?

#57 Dolce Vita on 05.28.20 at 6:20 pm

Everything you say is factual Garth.

From my vantage point here in Italia, it’s successfully opened up near ALL of its economy starting Apr. 14th to May 25th, other than masks, gloves and distancing, things seem to be returning to normal here, people back to work, restaurants, Summer Beach Culture + JAWS, you name it (well other than Serie A with fans in the stands), etc.

I see no reason why Canada can’t do that as well, soon enough and in the same short order?

The funk that Canada is in now will change once Canada begins to reopen. Like any recession, the economy eventually does get better. It may take a couple of years, but it will get better.

#58 Sail away on 05.28.20 at 6:22 pm

#35 Dolce Vita on 05.28.20 at 5:30 pm

“I looked, and behold, an ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Death; and Hades was following with him.

Authority was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by the wild beasts of the earth.”

—————

It’s quite obvious that none of the above applies anymore.

Death rides a horse? Killing is done with a sword?

Here’s the first clue that a prophecy is bunk: Its references are entirely from the timeframe the prophecy is made.

Give me a biblical prophecy that talks about bombs or guns or aircraft… or, actually, anything that didn’t exist at the time. An engine would be enough.

Otherwise, hokum. Basically all prophecies are hokum, eh?

#59 SOMETHINGS UP on 05.28.20 at 6:23 pm

SCRIPTURE

GENESIS 41 “7 years of feast, 7 years of famine”

Our devine destiny is not in our hands but in the hands of the Lord.

#60 Faron on 05.28.20 at 6:23 pm

#29 Not 1st on 05.28.20 at 5:22 pm

food and utilities. Great place to stick your money

——

If you want minimal risk. If you want growth, throw some $$$ at the equities that are just now waking up. More risk but way more growth potential. Nothing ventured nothing gained!

#61 Alberta Ed on 05.28.20 at 6:24 pm

Meanwhile, as the combined corona virus/economic crisis mounts, the prime minister is conducting a vanity campaign for a useless UN seat… out of a tent.

#62 Lost...but not leased on 05.28.20 at 6:26 pm

Curious re: the large number of deaths LTC homes in Ontario and Quebec.

Why was military brought in ?
A designed crisis?

Here in BC… did a little research and found that greatest number of deaths were in senior care homes that were “not for profit” and heavily subsidized by Gov’t. Hmmm…

What I foresee is that , at least in Ontario and Quebec
the political game in play will be the Gov’t will take over most if not all of these LTC homes….ie totally socialize medicine from cradle -to- grave.

However….it you think that is a good thing suggest GOOGLE “Death Panels” and rationed health care…given over 80% of the cost a person invokes on the health care system occurs during their last 2 years of life.

#63 yorkville renter on 05.28.20 at 6:30 pm

not every business was creamed… some are doing better thx to CV19.

even some of my travel clients are getting busier (no where near back, but more $$$ being spent than a month ago).

yes, there’s doom and gloom but I do see a light (no, it’s not a train)

#64 Tulips on 05.28.20 at 6:30 pm

Somewhere in these comments I was reading that Lower Brainland housing is selling like hotcakes a few days ago. Looking at Surrey/Langley on Zolo, real estate is having a V shaped recovery… but in inventory, not sales. Are other burbs different right now? In Surrey inventory is climbing back toward the highs of last spring when the market had croaked before starting to recover slightly in the late summer. And with the sales crash of recent weeks the months of inventory is over 10. This is not the result of “panic-inducing” “irresponsible” speech, it’s what necessitates it. Looks like Siddal’s perspective is a better bet than the realtors at this point.

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/trends

#65 Reality is stark on 05.28.20 at 6:33 pm

One obvious topic this blog seems to avoid is bankruptcy.
There will be hundreds of thousands of Canadians about to declare it when the CERB ends but people need to understand the ramifications.
Much of the economy is presently enjoying the profligate spending period which precipitates the ultimate filing but this false economy comes with a day of reckoning.
Siddall is concerned about the autumn when the party is over.
20% unemployment isn’t something to party about.
A lot of folks are not going to have jobs and the marriage rate is about to fall off a cliff.
However the Covid pandemic will create a new pandemic in single motherhood. When you are unable to find work but you can collect from the system you will opt for the latter. Socialism has many unintended consequences.
Watch the numbers. This prediction is a lock.

#66 Frank Lynman on 05.28.20 at 6:35 pm

Garth, the truth is they are all scammers from the city increasing taxes, garbage, water 7% to 10% at minimum.

I think you have a grim future in managing money as fewer and fewer people have less money and unless you find millionaires say 100 to 150 at least you will make a great living.

You would be surprised how many prudent Canadians there are. – Garth

#67 Long-Time Lurker on 05.28.20 at 6:44 pm

The global chessboard is repositioning as we speak. A new cold war is forming.

#68 MF on 05.28.20 at 6:45 pm

“What Siddall is saying is that those who claim real estate’s immune from this are delusional. Or worse. They’re lying. ”

-What took them so long to realize this?

MF

#69 Ronaldo on 05.28.20 at 6:46 pm

One of the best photos yet.

#70 dogman01 on 05.28.20 at 6:49 pm

Just follow where “Gerald Butts” lands and you pretty much have a roadmap of what the LPC and thier coalition (NDP, Green, Bloc). will do.
https://www.recoverytaskforce.ca/

Turner Nation will like it, Sustainability, and “resilience”. Use the “shock doctrine” to implement radical change.
I just can’t wait till we can turn this whole show over to AI. I for one will welcome our new overlords.

#71 Westcdn on 05.28.20 at 6:55 pm

I remember a comment that a PHD knows more about less. I realize there are people who are better than me no matter how hard I try and why I never got the gold medal – I have bronze and silver but who remembers them. I may be contrarian and an introvert but I will always compete for the gold. It pays when you are considered an expert. Dog knows many protect that reputation against honor. Then are many unrecognized people I have been honoured to meet. Courage is when things are running against you is not a small matter. Fleeing is not unknown to me (runaway because I will not die on this hill) or suffering for being insubordinate.

That aside, I wonder if the market is being driven up by inexperienced millennium opening self-directed investment accounts and being “day” traders – the retail marketers who regularly get eaten by the “street”. The market price is determined by the last trade even if the breath is small – kind of like real estate. Just watch the price of gold if you want to see pump and dump in action. I am looking for companies that have price control but they seem to be only in the US. I am going to have to venture southside as Canadian enterprisers are treated as evil if successful and I have met many jerks and hypocrites who prove the envy.

I got my property tax bill today – up 10%. At this rate it will be more than my income tax bill in a few years yet the Calgary mayor claims he needs more to maintain services I don’t want… Dog help me.

#72 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 05.28.20 at 6:58 pm

Don’t worry guys…………I’ll take care of it.

It’s just money remember.

Don’t stop believing.

#73 Ronaldo on 05.28.20 at 7:08 pm

#71 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 05.28.20 at 6:58 pm

Don’t worry guys…………I’ll take care of it.

It’s just money remember.

Don’t stop believing.
——————————————————-
And don’t forget. “We have your back”.

#74 Jimers on 05.28.20 at 7:10 pm

100,000 US Covid deaths is peanuts compared to the 647,000 Heart attack deaths and almost 600,000 cancer deaths in the 2019. Fake news gonna fake it.

#75 Keep Your Rent on 05.28.20 at 7:21 pm

Tenants keep your rent.

Landlords keep your distance.

Emergency Action:

Text Doug Ford now at 416-805-2156 or email him at [email protected] to ask why he is making it easier for landlords to evict tenants in the midst of a global pandemic that has made paying rent impossible for tens of thousands of tenants across Ontario.

Ford Goes Behind Tenants’ Backs To Weaken Tenant Protections

Today, the Conservative government made clear why the Landlord and Tenant Board and repayment plans are no solution for tenants. This afternoon, without notice, the Conservative government brought forward a bill for second reading meant to amend the Residential Tenancies Act. The vote for this bill, ironically titled “Protecting tenants”, will occur tomorrow morning around 11:30 AM. While tenants have been waiting for a meaningful response to the rent crisis amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the provincial government has instead chosen to attack tenants further.

Bill 184 aims to speedup evictions by limiting tenants’ legal defenses and in some cases removing the requirement to hold eviction hearings. Previously, renters were able to raise issues like chronic disrepair at eviction hearings and the Board had discretion to deny eviction in cases where it found the landlord had not met its obligations. If Bill 184 passes, tenants would need to give notice in writing of these complaints before a hearing occurs. When landlords apply to evict tenants for late rent, the tribunal can make repayment agreements. Under the new law, if tenants are unable to fulfill those repayment agreements, landlords would not have to go back to the tribunal for an eviction hearing. Instead, the tribunal could issue a quick eviction order without a hearing.

In the absence of financial relief that surpasses the average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Toronto and in the face of attempts to make evictions easier for landlords, a clear message has been sent to residential tenants: We must organize with our neighbours. We must resist all attempts at eviction. And the Landlord and Tenant Board will not save us.

Tenants in Ontario are staring down the barrel of their third rent payment during the COVID-19 crisis. Not only have the difficulties we face been given nothing more than lip-service by provincial legislators and landlords, now we see a legislative initiative from the Provincial government that is a direct threat to tenants and a gift to landlords that want to kick us out of our homes.

Any attempt by landlords to evict tenants with the assistance of the LTB and the Provincial government during or immediately after this crisis should be understood by all Ontarians as sacrificing the health and safety of tenants for the profits of landlords.

We cannot wait for hearings at the LTB to take action. Ford has worked to ensure that landlords are provided added legal protection once the courts reopen while refusing to address the rent crisis under COVID-19. Tenants need a permanent ban on evictions for rent arrears during COVID. Tenants have been waiting for 2 months for their landlords to negotiate – and the only response from landlords and the government is an attack.

Ask Ministers and the press: “Why are premier Ford and the Conservatives making it easier for landlords to evict tenants in the midst of a global pandemic that has made paying rent impossible for tens of thousands of tenants across Ontario?”

Premier Ford 416-805-2156 @fordnation
Minister of Housing, Steve Clark 416-585-7000, 613-342-9522 @SteveClarkPC
CBC Toronto: (416) 205-5808
CityNews: (416) 599-2489
CP24: (416) 384-2400
Global News: (416) 446-5460
Toronto Star: (416) 869-4300

http://parkdaleorganize.ca/2020/05/26/stop-the-eviction-bill/

#76 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 05.28.20 at 7:24 pm

My rental is well maintained; clean; secure and safe. Everything in my rental works well. My neighbors are the best examples of Canadians (sometimes we are blessed). I pay my rent as I don’t take my good fortune for granted. One wanders in all the small towns and cities across Canada how we can keep up this glorious utopia we call Canada without real working folks in real working jobs.

#77 Lost...but not leased on 05.28.20 at 7:25 pm

#70 Westcdn on 05.28.20 at 6:55 pm
I remember a comment that a PHD knows more about less.

That aside, I wonder if the market is being driven up by inexperienced millennium opening self-directed investment accounts and being “day” traders – the retail marketers who regularly get eaten by the “street”.

========================

I here ya….I don’t have much faith in any market…too ripe for fraud and manipulation. ZERO HEDGE did an article on day traders using pogey cheques.

It’s been one big ponzi scheme since Federal Reserve…actually earlier. One has to basically hold ones nose re: investments and choose one’s poison.

ALSO..
…..someone posted a link to a good article from Terrence Corcoran….the topic was these “crises” will not go to waste by Gov’t and their cronies..ie social engineer cities etc.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.28.20 at 7:27 pm

Wow!
Did someone throw a switch?
Zero calls from customers for over 2 months….now?
The phone is ringing off the hook with requests for quotes or jobs already quoted.
I’ve hired 3 guys back and two pending.
Makin’ money while the sun shines.

Went to the barber this afternoon.
Doc Brown is no more….
Hello Rick Deckard. :)

The barber insisted everyone wear masks or get out!

Apparently a Public Health nazi walked in yesterday and said, “One customer inside at a time and all must wear masks or its a $5000 fine….”
Zieg Heil

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.28.20 at 7:38 pm

#77
Zieg Heil?
———————
Well, Z is right below S, so it’s probably just fat fingers.
BTW I give half price German lessons for blog dawgs.
Quote this post when booking.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.28.20 at 7:39 pm

@#71 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine

I think…….

“The budget will balance itself”

Should follow Prime Minister Trudeau to the gates of fiscal Hell.

#81 Captain Uppa on 05.28.20 at 7:42 pm

So with appetite for risk diminishing hourly, does that mean those with good jobs and good credit will be rewarded with great rates?

#82 Edward Lowery on 05.28.20 at 7:44 pm

DELETED

#83 Ronaldo on 05.28.20 at 7:49 pm

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.28.20 at 7:27 pm

Wow!
Did someone throw a switch?
Zero calls from customers for over 2 months….now?
The phone is ringing off the hook with requests for quotes or jobs already quoted.
I’ve hired 3 guys back and two pending.
Makin’ money while the sun shines.

Went to the barber this afternoon.
Doc Brown is no more….
Hello Rick Deckard. :)

The barber insisted everyone wear masks or get out!

Apparently a Public Health nazi walked in yesterday and said, “One customer inside at a time and all must wear masks or its a $5000 fine….”
Zieg Heil
—————————————————————–
Son tells me that he’s booked solid for 3 crews and this is going to be is busiest season yet. Like yourself the phone was pretty quiet and then all of a sudden whammo. Went and got a pound of hair taken off this afternoon after 3 months. Had to wear a mask for the first time. No big deal. Barber never stopped talking for the half hour I was in there so I probably got a bucket full of droplets. Never saw any public health nazis. Only 1 other person in the salon. Don’t know how they are going to make it. Gave my barber a nice tip.

#84 Raj on 05.28.20 at 7:52 pm

GTA market is getting flooded with the new listings since mid-May. At least 400 new listings every single day. As of now, there are 10504 houses for sale. With this rate, I am hoping that there will be 20000 houses within a month or so.
So whoever says the listings are scarce, not telling you the truth.

#85 SimplyPut7 on 05.28.20 at 7:56 pm

I wonder how many speculators and future landlords regret buying their investment properties.

The Landlord and Tenant Board must be at least 4 – 6 months behind schedule now.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/article-landlords-renters-have-their-plans-frozen-by-pandemic/

#86 S on 05.28.20 at 7:58 pm

#74 Keep Your Rent on 05.28.20 at 7:21 pm

Finally. Do you know when the rest of Canada’s premiers might grow a set as well?

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.28.20 at 8:02 pm

@#69 dogman
“Just follow where “Gerald Butts” lands and you pretty much have a roadmap of what the LPC and thier coalition (NDP, Green, Bloc). will do.
https://www.recoverytaskforce.ca/

++++

O…M…G…

I can just imagine the “strategizing and recommendations” these idiots will have when China starts bombing our Allies…..

“We should talk to them…. Rational discussion works!”

Tell that to Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor ….rotting in Chinese prisons for 500 days and counting……

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-two-canadians-jailed-in-china-mark-500-days-in-confinement/

Send Meng to the US…… now.

#88 Fused on 05.28.20 at 8:11 pm

Anyone here buy Ericsson when it crashed, up a lot and guess who will be doing the 5G network now that China will not. A great buy and a great long term hold.
Keep Your Rent maybe you should be putting your ill kept gains to work in the market. I bet your mom will not miss that $450 rent for the metal garden shed you have been withholding.

#89 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.28.20 at 8:23 pm

@Sheep Your Rent

Wow! Ford finally did something? Do tell!

#90 Do we have all the facts on 05.28.20 at 8:24 pm

Although I have entered the exit ramp of life I can’t help wondering where all this Government borrowing and erosion of Canadian GDP will end. Our media seems focussed on the possibility that the Government of Canada could incur a $250 billion deficit in 2020. Very little concern is being voiced over the impact of our struggling economy on the expansion of all unfunded liabilities.

When lower interest rates are projected against the future obligations of all public pension plans the total level of unfunded liabilities gets pretty scary.

With fewer people contributing employment insurance premiums and more people applying for benefits I can’t help but thinking that this shift will become a problem very soon.

In the past the International Monetary Fund has not paid much attention to the level of Provincial and municipal debt level in Canada. This could change as the Covid 19 crisis unravels. If Canada comes under greater scrutiny our recent extravagances could come home to roost.

We need the Parliamentary Budget Office and each Provincial government to provide Canadian citizens with a more accurate picture of total debt obligations.

This is no time for accounting shenanigans.

#91 no blog for old men on 05.28.20 at 8:30 pm

@#58 SOMETHINGS UP on 05.28.20 at 6:23 pm
SCRIPTURE

GENESIS 41 “7 years of feast, 7 years of famine”

Our devine destiny is not in our hands but in the hands of the Lord.
/////////////////////////////

cute fairytale.
or is that from game of thrones?

#92 Faron on 05.28.20 at 8:31 pm

A friendly update because facts matter:

Remember that time many of the COVID deniers said

“watch Sweden, watch Brazil”?

Brazil with 1/5th the active cases and 2/3 the population of the US is exceeding the new death and new case rates of the US and any other country on the planet. Bolsonaro, How’s that chloroquine working out for you? Good, good. Oh, and your economy is awful. Well done.

And out good friend Sweden. While the rest of europe has had its cases more or less level off (although there are new spikes in cases in France and Spain). Sweden with a population density far surpassed by every other large European nation (population density more or less a proxy for contact between people) will soon exceed France in deaths per million. And your economy is awful too. And look, the case and death rates are flat and not declining. Meaning:

every day
it’s a gettin’ closer
movin’ faster
than a roller coaster…
Love like Sweden’s will (hopefully never) come our way.

Lookout Spain!

Anyhow, I’ll concede that Japan remains a mystery. However, it’s known as a very culturally polite nation, so I’m sure minimal rule issuance is effective there.

#93 NFN_NLN on 05.28.20 at 8:32 pm

Balanced and diversified portfolios have restored most or all of their value, despite crashing interest rates hurting fixed income returns and the virus rattling REITs.

I’ll have you know that my portfolio was neither balanced nor properly diversified… but I’ve already beat the market. I’m further ahead than before the crash.

Thank god for US airline, casino and oil stocks bought at the bottom. (Not a joke)

CPD have to be the biggest let down of my entire portfolio. The thing has ratcheted down from $16 and doesn’t appear to be on track to even recover.

XRE at least went up over the time I’ve owned it but it is back to where I bought it years ago. I least I got some dividends. CPD just plain sucks, should I dump it?

#94 Faron on 05.28.20 at 8:37 pm

#80 Captain Uppa on 05.28.20 at 7:42 pm

So with appetite for risk diminishing hourly

————————–

sez who? Today was mildly down (although with a run for the exits at close) but over the past two weeks, there’s been a 7.4% gain on the S&P. Someone is hungry for risk.

#95 Tim123 on 05.28.20 at 8:39 pm

I have to say that the stock markets in the US are great for those who are trading the volatility. I think it may be an even better for those investors who are trading options and stocks (long and short) than last year and last year the S&P returned 27%.
I find it ironic that real estate is set to crash when historically real estate was the safe trade and common wisdom among the majority of people was that real estate could only go up.
I think it was a good thing for CMHC to warn people that an impending crash is coming to real estate because the average person is not that good at projecting the economy. The real estate companies are scrambling to try and trick people in to thinking the market will only go up, which I find a bit disappointing because they will fool many people but not the readers of this blog because they are more savvy with their finances.

#96 Job#1 on 05.28.20 at 8:39 pm

#36 CJohnC

Speaking of science, did you miss this from “Blueb” comment #199 from yesterday?

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340570735_Masks_Don't_Work_A_review_of_science_relevant_to_COVID-19_social_policy

It’s a bit of a slog through the document, but science tends to be detail oriented.

Show me your science, and I’m not interested in anatomically-misplaced homilies.

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.28.20 at 8:48 pm

@#78 Prostate Protrusion
“Well, Z is right below S, so it’s probably just fat fingers….”
+++++

Yes I do have fat fingers and I’m willing to check that protrusion…….for a fee

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.28.20 at 8:50 pm

While the US self-destructs, China goes on the offensive globally.

#99 45north on 05.28.20 at 8:51 pm

Keep your Rent

Bill 184 aims to speedup evictions by limiting tenants’ legal defenses and in some cases removing the requirement to hold eviction hearings. Previously, renters were able to raise issues like chronic disrepair at eviction hearings and the Board had discretion to deny eviction in cases where it found the landlord had not met its obligations. If Bill 184 passes, tenants would need to give notice in writing of these complaints before a hearing occurs. When landlords apply to evict tenants for late rent, the tribunal can make repayment agreements. Under the new law, if tenants are unable to fulfill those repayment agreements, landlords would not have to go back to the tribunal for an eviction hearing. Instead, the tribunal could issue a quick eviction order without a hearing

I said renters in the long term, are going to suffer from a lack of rental accommodation – there wouldn’t be enough and what there was wouldn’t be of good quality. I said this because the people providing the rental accommodation would not have a reason to provide it. I had in mind, that over the next 20 years, people who were looking for a place to stay would not have much of a choice of rental accommodation.

But I didn’t know about Bill 184. It seems to me that the bill gives landlords more of a reason to provide rental accommodation. So they will. And I see this bill making a big difference in the quantity and quality of rental accommodation. And in its own way, the bill makes a stand for real working people.

#100 TurnerNation on 05.28.20 at 8:53 pm

#52 Lost…but not leased – eating in a hospital ward, what fun. This is a Cultural Revolution – make no mistake. They shut it down worldwide. For the New System underway.
Elderly are pushed aside; the young are the main target. Watch that unfolding.

A quote from fiction:
““I’d like to call to order this secret conclave of American media empires. We’re here to come up with the next phony-baloney crisis put Americans back where they belong: In dark rooms, glued to their televisions, too terrified to skip the commercials”.”

#101 Bill Grable on 05.28.20 at 8:57 pm

300,000 people in HK carry Canadian Passports.

Let me guess. They will buy up anything they can with their bazillions, and get to Canada, or Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and the USA.

***People in Vancouver are about to get buried, again.

I wish the Government gave two hoots about the people that are about to get taxed into the turf, just as the World turns upside down.

Disaster doesn’t even come close to describing the coming years.

#102 NFN_NLN on 05.28.20 at 9:00 pm

SPYD vs. CPD

Why wouldn’t I want to own SPYD over CPD, Garth?

#103 espressobob on 05.28.20 at 9:06 pm

I dread the day to take the first round of profit from all those positions taken a while ago. Pulling out the spread sheet and my dollar store calculator along with a fifth of bourbon.

Oh right, just did, couldn’t remember for some reason?

#104 TurnerNation on 05.28.20 at 9:07 pm

#69 dogman01 yeah the spoils of this War are already being divided up. Meet the shadow govt.
I’ve posted may times for years on here they I expect soon perfectly good foodstuffs forced into waste as we hunger, or wailing families kicked to the curb, all by armed govt men. The reason? Oh it will be along the lines of home Energy Audits failed, or Carbon Permits not obtained. Add a dose of food inflation and insurance company gouging.
I can cook up a number of oppressive themes. They surely will. All under the guise of Green movement. Green as in dollar bills.
The goal is simply to turn 1st world countries into 2nd.

10% prop tax hikes? Just the beginning:

“#6 TurnerNation on 01.12.20 at 2:20 pm
Things will speed up SO fast in 2020-2021 to roll out the plans. Nobody will come to your door and take away your property no. They’ll just take 5-10% of its value away in Tax each year, and empty home tax, land transfer tax, capital gains on sales taxes (stay tuned!), carbon taxes. In a down market this would prove fatal.”

#105 Paul on 05.28.20 at 9:13 pm

#74 Keep Your Rent on 05.28.20 at 7:21 pm

————————————————————————————————
Perfect so happy to see there will be a faster mechanism to get the Cons and Deadbeats squatters out. Keep your rent I just want you out!,

#106 Don Guillermo on 05.28.20 at 9:13 pm

I was booked to drive to my hometown in the Kootenays from Calgary for my 50th Grad anniversary this September (it was moved from May because of Covid). My buddy and I both have nice cars and were going to take in a few days of sports car driving before hitting the reunion. My favourite drive is heading north out of Creston up the east side of Kootenay Lake highway 3A and onto the Balfour ferry. After reading about all the abuses targeting Alberta plates in BC recently we both decided we didn’t want to risk driving our vehicles in. I probably don’t need to head back there anytime soon. Very sad

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/bc-alberta-border-towns-1.5580513

Please note CBC … these aren’t border towns … sheesh!

#107 Linda on 05.28.20 at 9:26 pm

Well, the Donald has struck back at those who would dare question his Tweets. Of course, those in question are obviously against free speech (lies); are interfering in the election; are accused of being in cahoots with Chinese interests etc. Bottom line: two Tweets were fact checked as they were blatant lies. Trump immediately went ballistic & attacked.

Leading into the real estate meme by certain interests that despite current circumstances, RE will most certainly go up, prices will escalate & there has never been a better time to invest in RE. The RE version of ‘the Donald’ at work.

Interesting that when I went to look at Worldometer today to see what the current infection/recovery/death toll was by country, the handy page that listed all the data by country is now replaced with graphs & much of the data is now hidden/buried to the point of general uselessness for the reader. Odd how that just happened the day Trump signed the order against social media ‘editing’. Also odd how that information that outlined the infection/death rates suddenly became much more difficult to find. I smell a cover up & I am sure that the upcoming election has nothing – absolutely nothing – to do with it. Anyone want to buy a bridge?

#108 gattaca on 05.28.20 at 9:29 pm

in 1989, pre-recession, Wood Gundy suggested Toronto home prices would drop by 25%. TREB called the report “inflammatory” & OREA stated “a large price decline is unlikely because the real-estate market doesn’t work like that”.

In the end, despite increased immigration to Canada with more people moving to the Toronto area and a substantial reduction in interest rates, prices fell 25% with many condos facing 35%+ declines.

The more you know.

https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/status/1266159289376354305

.

#109 Buy-curious on 05.28.20 at 9:33 pm

Wise and old or young and foolish?

#110 Living and learning on 05.28.20 at 9:52 pm

#105 Don Guillermo

An easy solution to your problem is to rent a car in Calgary that has BC plates on it and drive it out there and back. There are lots available. With Greyhound shutdown people are renting cars in one province and dropping them off in another.

#111 PBrasseur on 05.28.20 at 9:54 pm

Canada is in trouble. But it will just print money as long as it can and only the markets will make it stop, eventually.

I don’t believe governments will ever do anything to kill the real estate bubble in Canada.

#112 Doug t on 05.28.20 at 9:55 pm

#2 TurnerNation

Listen up people -TRUTH – you will be shocked what the world looks like in one year

#113 willworkforpickles on 05.28.20 at 9:58 pm

#46 The ones from HK that already own RE on the west coast and elsewhere may be coming. The remainder from HK wanting out are talking mightily hoping on emigrating to the UK. As for the rich, anticipating what’s ahead, they’ll wait and purchase RE from the banks here for ten cents on the dollar . The rich stay rich. The poor? fogetabout it.

#114 Nonplused on 05.28.20 at 10:05 pm

Garth, I find it interesting how you tie it all back to house (or real estate including condos) prices. I guess this is a housing and more recently investment blog, but sheesh, this is way bigger than housing at least in the short to medium term. Not that you haven’t acknowledged that, but sheesh.

The economic consequences of the covid and the massive unemployment and subsequent government borrowing and passing out of money and suspension of contract law might make anyone who “only” suffers a loss of 20% on their house seem like the house was a relatively balanced portfolio. I mean which is worse, house prices decline 20% or 20% of people who need to work have no job because 20% (or more) of all small businesses have shut down? And big business too. Hertz is gone. Many oil producers. Factories are idle. Fiat-Chrysler will not survive without a bail out and probably neither will GM. Airlines are at 15% capacity. That is just a small sample of the list.

Yes, of course, house prices will decline until the inflation caused by the devaluation of the dollar kicks in. But OMG what is happening in the parts of the economy that matters is epic. Not seen since the Great Depression. Do housing prices really take precedence when so many people are out of work? Of course we can tell where house prices will go and they will go as you have forecast, but looking at just that will belittle the total suffering that is coming.

When your house can no longer serve as your ATM, what you need is a job. Yes you hate your job as a waiter at a pub but you do it because that means income. But what happens if the pub never reopens? And sure Trump is trying to move manufacturing back to America, but the untold problem here is that the move will be highly automated. If you can’t fix a robot or program it, there won’t be a job for you. You won’t even be able to sweep the floor, as they have Roomba’s for that.

The apocalypse has arrived. And it takes the form of labor being of no value other than how they vote. I will have to admit that I did not see this coming in this way, but here it is.

#115 Faron on 05.28.20 at 10:11 pm

#105 Don Guillermo on 05.28.20 at 9:13 pm

Much less fun, but pick up a $1000 toyota and do your trip. If they damage the vehicle, who cares, you can still sell it for $1000 when you get home. Plus, you’ll get sympathy points so less likely to be harassed.

#116 Ronaldo on 05.28.20 at 10:20 pm

#104 Paul on 05.28.20 at 9:13 pm

#74 Keep Your Rent on 05.28.20 at 7:21 pm

————————————————————————————————
Perfect so happy to see there will be a faster mechanism to get the Cons and Deadbeats squatters out. Keep your rent I just want you out!,
————————————————————–
Totally agree. We may see a run on tents.

#117 Nonplused on 05.28.20 at 10:21 pm

#18 Leigh on 05.28.20 at 4:57 pm
Wonder if those who bought houses they couldn’t afford are the same ones who wear masks they dont need and doesn’t do anything for them or anyone around them!

—————–

Masks work. Mileage will vary depending on type and other factors like stop touching your face. Mask have been in use for a long time in surgical or dental applications. Was that for no reason? Sure, they are not 100% effective, I don’t know that we know how effective they are, but it is better than zero.

#118 Nonplused on 05.28.20 at 10:23 pm

Ps #18, I was spraying weeds today with a mask, albeit a canister mask with carbon, but I smelled nothing. Took a shower after though.

#119 Linda on 05.28.20 at 10:24 pm

#70 ‘West’ – if you don’t want clean, potable water on demand, sewage treatment, public transit, garbage pickup, road maintenance, emergency services & the like feel free to move to somewhere where those unwanted amenities do not exist. I’m not sure however there is anywhere where taxes do not exist in some form or another. Let us know if you do find such a place.

#120 Nonplused on 05.28.20 at 10:26 pm

#19 Leo on 05.28.20 at 5:02 pm
There has been a lot of talk about UBI in Canada.

The way I see it, there is a huge hurtle that no one seems to have acknowledged. Canada needs more people.

————————

No, we don’t. Most of the land is uninhabitable, and that which is is already inhabited, and the robots are coming. About the last thing we need is more people.

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.28.20 at 10:27 pm

#91 Faron
Anyhow, I’ll concede that Japan remains a mystery. However, it’s known as a very culturally polite nation, so I’m sure minimal rule issuance is effective there.
—————
Unbelievable Health Care system.
Was in Osaka and had to call the ambulance.
Came within 10 minutes. Took me to the hospital, just for precaution.
Attended by 2 nurses all in white while waiting 10 minutes for the Doctor. Spoke perfect English.
Gave me some pills, and released me.
I was scared about the cost.
To my surprise and relief, it was just 55 Canadian.
After that, I stayed away from the All You Can Eat and Drink bars.

#122 Brad B on 05.28.20 at 10:35 pm

#4 IGV

3 Big S&P 500 ETFs – IVV, VOO, SPY – Top 4 Holdings

16.88%, 18.2%, 16.94%

#123 Drinking on 05.28.20 at 10:51 pm

For those of us that have followed you for years, who listened, sure this virus has kicked us in the butt, although not easy, we have managed largely due to you and many commenters advice. I still have an awful uneasy feeling on what is coming up this winter, we really need to prepare for that! Thanks Garth……

#124 Keeper on 05.28.20 at 11:04 pm

Of course the markets are going up. Central banks and governments have made it impossible for big corporations to lose.

Socialism for the rich living in Elysium, rugged individualism for the peasants still living on Earth.

#125 Victor V on 05.28.20 at 11:12 pm

https://twitter.com/emilybaillie/status/1266188915029037058?s=21

“Well I bought a house. During a pandemic. Prior to viewing, we had to sign a form confirming we didn’t have #COVID19 symptoms. Our agent sanitized everything & the paperwork is being done virtually. It’s a weird time to do this, but I’m a homeowner now!”

#126 Trapper John on 05.29.20 at 12:17 am

https://business.financialpost.com/executive/posthaste-if-inflation-is-so-low-why-are-my-grocery-bills-so-high

As always, inconvenient facts are hidden by government and other losers whose axes are always dull and in need of grinding.

Consumer inflation has been roaring along for years but governments deny that. Food inflation especially has those on fixed income starving. But, what does a government economist say ? “Substitute” they say. And voila, that costly pork chop becomes a can of ‘pork’ and beans. Problem solved. No food inflation.

Easy days for government liars when a can of marine paint can be sourced in India and that lowers the price for all. When T-Shirts can be made in Bangladesh, input costs for all manufactured goods fall and presto, no inflation. Manipulating information is what government departments do best.

Therefore, when one two million dollar house sells in a range of 10 – $700,000 houses , the ‘average price’ of all lower priced bungalows goes up, real estate math magic.

#127 the Jaguar on 05.29.20 at 12:18 am

@#100 Bill Grable on 05.28.20 at 8:57 pm
When the first wave came over from Hong Kong they bought homes in Vancouver lower mainland. Wife stays in house, kids go to school in Canada, husband goes back to Hong Kong to make business/money. Most already have real estate in Canada. I doubt you will see much of a ‘dent’ in the real estate unwinding from that source, especially with all the new inventory coming on line (condos).

@#105 Don Guillermo on 05.28.20 at 9:13 pm
Pretty sad isn’t it? I heard Invermere is one of the worst areas, tires have been slashed if carrying Alberta plates at the grocery store. But STARS air ambulance flew to Invermere to rescue an 8 year old girl who fell 45 meters off a hiking trail last weekend. Flew her to Calgary. Many rescues and assistance provided to that area of BC. The small mindedness is beyond the pale. Article in the newspaper today about the Maritime provinces not even allowing people from neighbouring provinces to cross over provincial borders.
Times like these really expose people for their true nature.

#128 N on 05.29.20 at 12:25 am

Before dismissing CMHC’s report, consider this: in 1989, pre-recession, Wood Gundy suggested Toronto home prices would drop by 25%. TREB called the report “inflammatory” & OREA stated “a large price decline is unlikely because the real-estate market doesn’t work like that”. Mortgage rates then fell dramatically by over 500bps (5%!!) over the next few years. This was a significant drop in borrowing costs that cannot be understated. And no, immigration did not fall in 1989. It went from about 191k in 1989 to 256k by 1993. Also, more immigrants chose major city centres in the 1990s compared to the 1980s. Yes, more immigrants came to Canada and even more went to the Toronto area. In the end, despite increased immigration to Canada with more people moving to the Toronto area and a substantial reduction in interest rates, prices fell 25% with many condos facing 35%+ declines. The more you know. https://twitter.com/ExtraGuac4Me/status/1266159844278579201

#129 CJohnC on 05.29.20 at 12:49 am

#95 Job#1 on 05.28.20 at 8:39 pm

Yes I did miss that article. Thank you for bringing it to my attention. Not a bad slog, and a very well researched and informative piece.

#130 AisA on 05.29.20 at 12:51 am

All I want to know is when do home prices go negative.

:-)

#131 Buy? Curious? on 05.29.20 at 12:55 am

Garth, how are you, you timeless object of desire, have I told how much I’m enjoying the blog these? It’s like reading the apocalypse but with the sensation of smelling Maple Syrup!

First of all, there is no god. I don’t care if you’re upset, but honestly, there no old geezer in a white robe wondering, like Janet Jackson, “What have you done for me lately. Secondly, (hold my beer, Garth) if you WANT a change, I’ve said before on this beautifully written blog read social awkward men, STOP PAYING YOUR DEBT! All of it, any of it! And finally, let’s support the real heroes, the cops. We should stand outside our doors around 10pm and clap for them! Good on you, police! You’re doing a fine job! All of you deserve a raise!

#132 Spectacle on 05.29.20 at 1:39 am

#60 Alberta Ed on 05.28.20 at 6:24 pm
Meanwhile, as the combined corona virus/economic crisis mounts, the prime minister is conducting a vanity campaign for a useless UN seat… out of a tent.

——————————–
Spectacle::
Ah Yes. And what effect will Chinas recent calling Trudeau a “Pathetic Clown” have on his coveted machinations?

———————————
#66 Long-Time Lurker on 05.28.20 at 6:44 pm
The global chessboard is repositioning as we speak. A new cold war is forming.

Spectacle::
And we can hope that Trudeaus delusional aspirations are above his pay grade…. As is his sociopathic tossing our Canadian elderly into death. As the military intervention just outlined for us! Yuck.

#133 Westcdn on 05.29.20 at 4:02 am

RE: #72 – my comment about my 2020 property tax bill

I calmed down and took pen to paper. My bill consists of a city 2/3 portion and a Provincial 1/3 portion (mainly to pay teachers). At first glance, the increase looked to be about $350 which is about 10%. The actual net increase is $270 equalling only a mere net 7.37% increase.

The city threw in a $35 rebate which I didn’t see at first glance. Score at the end of the day, Province 7.56% and the city 7.26%. I have to admit anger limited my vision.

Really, it is less than an after income tax $25 monthly increase. Governments are not as needy as I thought and besides we are all in this together (sarc). It will take a few years to add up to real money and there is no relief on the horizon that I can see.

Maybe joining a special interest club might help. I thought this was sadly funny.

https://www.theonion.com/protestors-criticized-for-looting-businesses-without-fo-1843735351

#134 Do we have all the facts on 05.29.20 at 6:23 am

# 95 Job#1

Thanks for highlighting these empirically supported scientific sites.

From the very first day that the WHO scared the world with prediction of millions of deaths from Covid 19 if no preventative actions were taken I began looking for scientific evidence of this claim.

When it became clear that over 80% of the mortality attributed to Covid 19 around the world involved an elderly population with co-morbidity factors I expected our governments to implement strategies that protected our most vulnerable. Recent report on the deplorable conditions in many long-term care facilities across Canada provide clear evidence of our government apathetic, if not pathetic, responses to Covid 19 based on well established scientific evidence.

Have we become so jaded that we no longer care about the facts and willingly accept every unsubstantiated prediction regardless of the severity of the consequences?
We are not being well served by our media or our government officials and it is definitely time to insist on a more sanguine evaluation of the facts.

Our basic human rights depend on the revelation of truth

#135 Janda Devi on 05.29.20 at 6:54 am

Linda 105, Democrats want mail in ballots, to encourage the dead to vote just like they wanted to bus illegals from county to county to vote multiple times. Obama and Clinton also fought for illegals to register when applying for services. Those are facts. Without cheating, Democrats can’t win. The second tweet was quoted from 1968, and as such not political comment, instead it is an example of political leftists with twitchy knees. Neither were Chinese connections mentioned in either tweet or response. Likely you’re reacting to CBC hate mongering, take an aspirin.

Fact check Trudeau allowing tens of thousands of Covid infected to transit Canada’s airports. Fact check 5000 Canadians dead on Trudeau’s watch. Fact check Trudeau calling Chinese Canadians racist for developing a 100 thousand signiature petition . Fact check Trudeau calling Canadians selfish for wearing masks. Fact check Trudeau shipping 16 tons of Canadas PPE to China when Covid was raging in Canada. Fact check Canadian Seniors dead in nursing homes while Trudeau’s bureaucrats were drunk on Screech.

Canada is a country with big problems, why not focus your anger on the real enemy in Trudeau’s Liberal Party.

#136 BillyBob on 05.29.20 at 6:56 am

#74 Keep Your Rent on 05.28.20 at 7:21 pm
Tenants keep your rent.

Landlords keep your distance.

Emergency Action:

Text Doug Ford now at 416-805-2156 or email him at [email protected] to ask why he is making it easier for landlords to evict tenants in the midst of a global pandemic that has made paying rent impossible for tens of thousands of tenants across Ontario.

==================================================

As I said a couple of days ago, landlords will prevail in the end. No point in the rule of law if people just ignore contracts. And that goes for all parties to a contract.

I just emailed Ford to express my support for these measures, thanks for supplying the contact details.

#137 Wrk.dover on 05.29.20 at 7:02 am

#106 Linda on 05.28.20 at 9:26 pm

Interesting that when I went to look at Worldometer today to see what the current infection/recovery/death toll was by country, the handy page that listed all the data by country is now replaced with graphs & much of the data is now hidden/buried to the point of general uselessness for the reader.

—————————————————-

Scroll down a ways, scroll back up and there it is!

#138 Buffett is a dummy on 05.29.20 at 7:57 am

Right on Garth and Evan! With news as bad as this, the last thing a smart person would do is buy! It’s always wiser and safer to wait until all the news is good, then jump on the bandwagon. Don’t be a contrarian, follow the crowd! Just because the trillions in money printed in 2009 caused a 10 year boom, don’t expect the trillions being printed this time to do the same. THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT! Really!

#139 Jerome The Printing Press Powell on 05.29.20 at 7:58 am

People, people, people…

Have no fear, the printing press is here!

Stock values warped beyond recognition. Home prices propped up beyond anything remotely logical.

Fundamentals, actual data, bankruptcies, mass unemployment, epic economic contraction… pffft, who cares?

You’re welcome.

#140 Don Guillermo on 05.29.20 at 8:16 am

#109 Living and learning on 05.28.20 at 9:52 pm
#105 Don Guillermo
An easy solution to your problem is to rent a car in Calgary that has BC plates on it and drive it out there and back. There are lots available. With Greyhound shutdown people are renting cars in one province and dropping them off in another
*************************************
Not looking for an easy solution to someone else’s problem

#141 Sail Away on 05.29.20 at 8:17 am

#130 Buy? Curious? on 05.29.20 at 12:55 am

…if you WANT a change, I’ve said before on this beautifully written blog read social awkward men, STOP PAYING YOUR DEBT! All of it, any of it!

—————-

Oh boy, you and Keep Your Rent guy should start a club.

Guiding principle: Integrity prohibited. Voluntarily enter an agreement, then break it.

#142 Phylis on 05.29.20 at 8:22 am

#74 Keep Your Rent on 05.28.20 at 7:21 pm
Everyone here has paid their rent already. So save some time and troll for your cause on other sites. Please and thankyou.

#143 Sail Away on 05.29.20 at 8:22 am

#135 BillyBob on 05.29.20 at 6:56 am
#74 Keep Your Rent on 05.28.20 at 7:21 pm

Tenants keep your rent.

Landlords keep your distance.

Emergency Action:

Text Doug Ford now at 416-805-2156 or email him at [email protected] to ask why he is making it easier for landlords to evict tenants in the midst of a global pandemic that has made paying rent impossible for tens of thousands of tenants across Ontario.

—————

As I said a couple of days ago, landlords will prevail in the end. No point in the rule of law if people just ignore contracts. And that goes for all parties to a contract.

I just emailed Ford to express my support for these measures, thanks for supplying the contact details.

—————

Likewise. And I’ve forwarded it to many more. Finally a little reasonable leadership!

#144 Don Guillermo on 05.29.20 at 8:30 am

114 Faron on 05.28.20 at 10:11 pm
#105 Don Guillermo on 05.28.20 at 9:13 pm
Much less fun, but pick up a $1000 toyota and do your trip. If they damage the vehicle, who cares, you can still sell it for $1000 when you get home. Plus, you’ll get sympathy points so less likely to be harassed.
***************************************
Thanks but so very sad that someone would even have to consider hiding the identity of the province they live in to return to a high school reunion.

#145 Sail Away on 05.29.20 at 8:40 am

‘Looting starts, shooting starts’ Haha

How about:

‘Blockade the rail, go directly to jail’
‘Keep your rent, live in a tent’

#146 Don Guillermo on 05.29.20 at 8:41 am

#126 the Jaguar on 05.29.20 at 12:18 am

@#105 Don Guillermo on 05.28.20 at 9:13 pm
Pretty sad isn’t it? I heard Invermere is one of the worst areas, tires have been slashed if carrying Alberta plates at the grocery store. But STARS air ambulance flew to Invermere to rescue an 8 year old girl who fell 45 meters off a hiking trail last weekend. Flew her to Calgary. Many rescues and assistance provided to that area of BC. The small mindedness is beyond the pale.

***************************************
Yes, we’ve been doing this for years. I recall when Nancy Greens brother was seriously injured in a hang gliding accident in Invermere (70’s) and was flown over to the Foothills Hospital. Unfortunately he didn’t make it.

#147 UmiouiuS on 05.29.20 at 8:56 am

#32 Jerry on 05.28.20 at 5:24 pm
Your recent posts have nailed Canada in the year 2020 perfectly, Garth —- Superb commentary!

Here, here ..!! Agree absolutely. Our crisis Churchill.

#148 Earlybird on 05.29.20 at 8:58 am

Dam..first Canadian lender to reduce dividend..Laurentian…hope this isnt a trend…

#149 Karen on 05.29.20 at 8:59 am

Amy Cooper Going Full Karen By Harassing Black Bird Watcher In Central Park

#150 Karen on 05.29.20 at 9:01 am

DELETED

#151 Dharma Bum on 05.29.20 at 9:26 am

DELETED

#152 Janda Devi on 05.29.20 at 9:26 am

134 re: Trudeau makes deadly political decision to leave airports open to infected travelers and thousands of Canadians are dead because of his actions.

I know it’s easy to say these things but when it’s a matter of public record you’d think the nation would be in a state of outrage over the arrogance and incompetance. How is anyone still supporting the Trudeau Liberals?

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/-1.1442852

#153 Mayor Spendshi on 05.29.20 at 9:27 am

Westcdn on 05.29.20 at 4:02 am
RE: #72 – my comment about my 2020 property tax bill

I calmed down and took pen to paper. My bill consists of a city 2/3 portion and a Provincial 1/3 portion (mainly to pay teachers). At first glance, the increase looked to be about $350 which is about 10%. The actual net increase is $270 equalling only a mere net 7.37% increase.

The city threw in a $35 rebate which I didn’t see at first glance. Score at the end of the day, Province 7.56% and the city 7.26%. I have to admit anger limited my vision.

Really, it is less than an after income tax $25 monthly increase. Governments are not as needy as I thought and besides we are all in this together (sarc). It will take a few years to add up to real money and there is no relief on the horizon that I can see.

Maybe joining a special interest club might help. I thought this was sadly funny.

https://www.theonion.com/protestors-criticized-for-looting-businesses-without-fo-1843735351

….

Well mine just went up 22%….. you’re welcome.

#154 Stratovarious on 05.29.20 at 9:32 am

In the context of real estate, the following statement is quoted: “Please question the motivation of anyone who wants you to believe prices will go up (yes, up) with our economy in slow motion, oil being given away, millions of Canadians on income support and a greater % of mortgages not being paid than we’ve seen since the Great Depression.”

And yet if you replaced real estate with stocks, the statement is considered incorrect.

If stocks can only go up (which is what your thesis is), then I see no reason that RE can not also continue to go up. After all, CBs (and liberal governments) have the power to support both markets equally, by e.g., providing helicopter money, limiting foreclosure, buying RE bonds, etc.

No, from this point forward, your thesis should be the same: all assets are controlled by the government and CB’s, and “free market capitalism” is dead. Rock on!

#155 LP on 05.29.20 at 9:37 am

#130 Buy? Curious? on 05.29.20 at 12:55 am
…First of all, there is no god. I don’t care if you’re upset, but honestly, there no old geezer in a white robe…
*********************
My late husband used to be fond of wearing a sweatshirt that said on the front:
God is dead – Nietzsche
Nietzsche is dead – God

As the philosopher would say, think about it.

#156 TurnerNation on 05.29.20 at 9:37 am

Is this the start of govt seizure of private assets and land?
Crown bankers using the Crown virus to take back the Crown land?
——————————
A REIT:
Post says Ford threatens to pull Sienna’s licence
2020-05-29 09:11 ET – In the News

The National Post reports in its Friday edition that Ontario Premier Doug Ford pledged Thursday for-profit companies running long-term care homes would be held accountable for the deplorable conditions in those facilities that left them vulnerable to COVID-19. The Post’s Ryan Tumilty writes that earlier this week, Mr. Ford released a Canadian military report highlighting appalling conditions in five Ontario long-term care homes where forces members were sent in to help. Four of the homes were run by private companies, including one, Sienna Senior Living, that is publicly traded. Mr. Ford said anyone holding shares in these companies should be asking questions about how the firms are being run. “You want to invest in a company, make sure the company is run well,” he said. “If you buy a stock, you have to do your due diligence to make sure the product is good.” Mr. Ford, generally in favour of cutting government regulations, said on long-term care his government will be moving in the other direction — more regulation. Mr. Ford said that if the companies are not prepared to step up, his government is prepared to take any necessary steps. “We can pull their licences and then they won’t have homes to worry about.”
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

#157 It's not charity on 05.29.20 at 9:38 am

#145 Don Guillermo on 05.29.20 at 8:41 am
#126 the Jaguar on 05.29.20 at 12:18 am

@#105 Don Guillermo on 05.28.20 at 9:13 pm
Pretty sad isn’t it? I heard Invermere is one of the worst areas, tires have been slashed if carrying Alberta plates at the grocery store. But STARS air ambulance flew to Invermere to rescue an 8 year old girl who fell 45 meters off a hiking trail last weekend. Flew her to Calgary. Many rescues and assistance provided to that area of BC. The small mindedness is beyond the pale.

***************************************
Yes, we’ve been doing this for years. I recall when Nancy Greens brother was seriously injured in a hang gliding accident in Invermere (70’s) and was flown over to the Foothills Hospital. Unfortunately he didn’t make it.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

BCEHS contracts with STARS to provide air evac services to the SE corner of BC. STARS has signed a contract, and receives payments for services rendered. What else would you expect them to do? Refuse to honour the contract?

#158 KNOW IT ALL on 05.29.20 at 9:47 am

LAURENTIAN BANK

40% DIVIDEND CUT

…….and the worst is yet to come.

Compared to the Big Five, this is a corner-store operation. Don’t get too excited. – Garth

#159 Flail Away on 05.29.20 at 10:00 am

#144 Of course you would find that tweet funny.

It is pretty clear you do not need bullets or just cause to kill black men in America.

How many times have you said things are so much better in the US. Perhaps it is better, but you better read the small print…
if you are white
if you have a good job with adequate healthcare
if you are comfortable being around gun nuts who show up to rallies in masks with assault weapons but complain bitter about their freedoms being trampled if they are asked to wear a mask to buy groceries.

To quote 45, SAD!

#160 Toronto_CA on 05.29.20 at 10:00 am

I know Q1 is hardly indicative of what’s to come, but

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/sweden-s-economy-posts-surprise-upside-amid-lax-covid-19-plan

#161 Job#1 on 05.29.20 at 10:05 am

#128 CJohnC
#133 Do we have all the facts

As I mentioned, the article was posted on May 27, by “Blueb”, comment #199.

I just passed it on after reading it. You are certainly welcome.

#162 Chris in Edm on 05.29.20 at 10:07 am

I don’t think it’ll be as bad as you may predict it to be Garth. The reason – WAY more people filed for CERB and whatever other $ Trudeau is giving away than actually deserve or qualify for it. I have several family members, friends, etc that I have heard say “I have more money now than I ever have had” due to all the payments they’re getting.

#163 BrianT on 05.29.20 at 10:17 am

#016Linda-it is hilarious how you wrote all that without even mentioning Vlad Putin once-he was your great crush for years and now you don’t even remember he exists.

#164 A Lawyer Somewhere on 05.29.20 at 10:24 am

“Endless buckets of liquidity”

How come I have to buy my stocks with earned money, yet Wall Street gets to buy it with “liquidity”?

How can I dip into these buckets of liquidity?

If you have a portfolio of financial assets, you just did. – Garth

#165 Sail Away on 05.29.20 at 10:36 am

#158 Flail Away on 05.29.20 at 10:00 am
#144 Of course you would find that tweet funny.

It is pretty clear you do not need bullets or just cause to kill black men in America.

How many times have you said things are so much better in the US. Perhaps it is better, but you better read the small print…
if you are white
if you have a good job with adequate healthcare
if you are comfortable being around gun nuts who show up to rallies in masks with assault weapons but complain bitter about their freedoms being trampled if they are asked to wear a mask to buy groceries.

To quote 45, SAD!

—————–

Why’d you bring in race? That’s discriminatory. Criminals come in all races (and genders, if you believe it. Yes it’s true).

I watched Usher’s crib on MTV the other day. Pretty sure he’s black as well. Seems to have done ok in America.

#166 Don Guillermo on 05.29.20 at 10:37 am

#152 It’s not charity on 05.29.20 at 9:38 am
#145 Don Guillermo on 05.29.20 at 8:41 am
#126 the Jaguar on 05.29.20 at 12:18 am

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BCEHS contracts with STARS to provide air evac services to the SE corner of BC. STARS has signed a contract, and receives payments for services rendered. What else would you expect them to do? Refuse to honour the contract?
***************************************
Stars is a charitable, non-profit organization funded mostly by donations and the governments of AB, SK and MB. Did get your Stars Ambulance Lottery ticket last month?
https://starslotteryalberta.ca/

#167 Yukon Elvis on 05.29.20 at 10:38 am

A gang of monkeys attacked a laboratory assistant and escaped with a batch of coronavirus blood test samples, it has been reported.
The bizarre incident saw the troop of primates launch their assault near Meerut Medical College in Delhi, India.
According to local media, the animals then snatched COVID-19 blood test samples that had been taken from three patients and fled.
One of the monkeys was later spotted in a tree chewing one of the sample collection kits, the Times of India reported – adding that test samples from the patients had to be taken again.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-monkeys-escape-with-covid-19-samples-after-attacking-lab-assistant-11996752

#168 Sail Away on 05.29.20 at 10:43 am

#154 LP on 05.29.20 at 9:37 am
#130 Buy? Curious? on 05.29.20 at 12:55 am

…First of all, there is no god. I don’t care if you’re upset, but honestly, there no old geezer in a white robe…

——————

My late husband used to be fond of wearing a sweatshirt that said on the front:
God is dead – Nietzsche
Nietzsche is dead – God

As the philosopher would say, think about it.

——————-

Very good!

#169 BrianT on 05.29.20 at 10:53 am

#164Sail-in the USA if someone is shot to death by the police that someone is usually a white male-naturally zero % of these shootings are ever focused on by the MSM-nobody cares at all https://www.statista.com/statistics/585152/people-shot-to-death-by-us-police-by-race/

#170 Sail Away on 05.29.20 at 11:07 am

#164 Sail Away on 05.29.20 at 10:36 am
#158 Flail Away on 05.29.20 at 10:00 am

How many times have you said things are so much better in the US.

—————–

Better? I don’t know about better as a blanket statement. It has better policies for specific things, such as:

Fostering innovation
Keeping more earned cash in one’s pocket
Recognizing exceptional effort deserves exceptional reward
Not kowtowing to special interest groups

If I were in a different situation such as a dependent sop on society, I’d probably be more in favour of pablum policies and higher taxes for those making money.

#171 Damifino on 05.29.20 at 11:18 am

The “End DP” is toast. Jagmeet has driven the final nail in the coffin of the dippers. I shed no tears for them except it means T2 will reign supreme for a long time to come.

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/the-end-of-the-ndp/

#172 Leo on 05.29.20 at 11:38 am

#119 Nonplused
Let me guess…. you live within 200 miles of the US border.

#173 Orange Man....Orange on 05.29.20 at 11:44 am

Looks like the latest study trashing Hydroxycholoroquine was itself trash. The hospitals quoted as data sources had never heard of the study nor had they given data to it.

And the study authors refused to release any of their data.

Fake News! Why isn’t Twitter fact-checking the lie filled study?

#174 MF on 05.29.20 at 11:46 am

119 Nonplused on 05.28.20 at 10

Yes we do. We need a lot more.

MF

#175 Another Deckchair on 05.29.20 at 11:50 am

@169 Sail Away

Yeah – making a generalization: my buddies south of the border “just do it” while us Canadians dither around and expect someone else to do it.

I really enjoy meeting up with them, and hope we get a chance this summer.

#176 Re-Cowtown on 05.29.20 at 11:50 am

#161 Chris in Edm on 05.29.20 at 10:07 am
I don’t think it’ll be as bad as you may predict it to be Garth. The reason – WAY more people filed for CERB and whatever other $ Trudeau is giving away than actually deserve or qualify for it. I have several family members, friends, etc that I have heard say “I have more money now than I ever have had” due to all the payments they’re getting.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

T2toonies… meet brick wall. Their prosperity will be short lived. Too bad they spent it all on weed and Doritos. But if you set your sights low enough, a win is a win, even if it’s just for a couple of months.

Why do I get the feeling that watching some people spend their T2toonies is like watching the tweekers live it up an episode of “Better Call Saul”?

#177 Sail Away on 05.29.20 at 11:52 am

#168 BrianT on 05.29.20 at 10:53 am

#164Sail-in the USA if someone is shot to death by the police that someone is usually a white male-naturally zero % of these shootings are ever focused on by the MSM-nobody cares at all https://www.statista.com/statistics/585152/people-shot-to-death-by-us-police-by-race/

—————-

Shhh!

Logic has no place in this conversation.

#178 Faron on 05.29.20 at 11:53 am

#160 Job#1 on 05.29.20 at 10:05 am

#128 CJohnC
#133 Do we have all the facts

Just because it’s on researchgate (facebook/linkdin for scientists) doesn’t mean it’s been peer reviewed or represents anything other than opinion. Looks like this particular article was posted there to give it an air of legitimacy even though is sole authored and has not undergone review of any kind.

You have to understand your sources.

#179 Captain Uppa on 05.29.20 at 11:58 am

Here come the feds to the mortgage rescue, lol.

#180 MF on 05.29.20 at 12:03 pm

#32 Jerry on 05.28.20 at 5:24 pm

Garth is Spot on with investment advice and real estate.

If more people read this blog (not the comments) we would be better off as a whole.

The rest is just opinion though. Some I agree with. Some definitely not.

MF

#181 Yuus bin Haad on 05.29.20 at 12:06 pm

I checked with Mayor Tory and not only are chin-strap face masks OK, but if you’re wearing one, you get to ignore the aisle arrows in the grocery stores.

#182 Job#1 on 05.29.20 at 12:30 pm

#177 Faron

Did you bother to read the underlying citations, studies?
Or did you just dismiss it out of hand because you’re much more of an expert?
The author has referenced 22 articles (see endnotes) in support of his conclusions. You have yet to refute any of the points he made. I’m listening…?

#183 TurnerNation on 05.29.20 at 12:56 pm

And here are the social distancing circles drawn in Toronto we are told, in the same park:

https://i.redd.it/vc2pu8d6lp151.jpg

We are all children now. The State has us lining up on our spot/mark, lines and hall/store monitors direct us.
We will become safe again only when the government tells us so.

Now do you believe that we are in the Conditioning/Compliance stage of this global rollout?

Total media ploy in this park: the CTV fake kissing story, then that park made front page of Toronto Star few days ago, then someone made an alternate ending movie for the kissing incident there.
Remember this flow: Problem > Reaction > Solution.
Did council vote on these circles? Nope it’s global medical martial law get used it it.
The facade fell away, the curtain lifted up. Now you see what our rulers are all about. Again have fun this Remembrance day. Poetic waxing.

#184 Phylis on 05.29.20 at 1:10 pm

#171 Leo on 05.29.20 at 11:38 am If in Essex, then it’s within 200 miles of any cardinal direction. Surrounded.

#185 Faron on 05.29.20 at 1:17 pm

#176 Sail Away on 05.29.20 at 11:52 am
#168 BrianT on 05.29.20 at 10:53 am

#164Sail

Logic has no place in this conversation

——

Apparently not to you guys.

Racial composition of the US:

5.7:1 white to black

Racial composition of police shootings

1.8:1 white to black

Pull your head out.

I love your tells BTW.

#186 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.29.20 at 1:27 pm

#181 Job#1 on 05.29.20 at 12:30 pm sez:

“#177 Faron

Did you bother to read the underlying citations, studies?
Or did you just dismiss it out of hand because you’re much more of an expert?
The author has referenced 22 articles (see endnotes) in support of his conclusions. You have yet to refute any of the points he made. I’m listening…?”
——————————————
Ahhh… you’ve discovered Faron’s MO. To disparage any source that doesn’t agree with her narrative.

#187 Faron on 05.29.20 at 2:14 pm

#185 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.29.20 at 1:27 pm
#181 Job#1 on 05.29.20 at 12:30 pm sez:

I’m not retired enough to read the full articles. I read the abstracts of the seven anchor articles which is where the salient results are.

Jacobs: “Thirty-two health care workers completed the study, resulting in 2464 subject days. There were 2 colds during this time period, 1 in each group” and “A larger study is needed to definitively establish noninferiority of no mask use”. N of 2 is inconclusive.

Cowling: “There is some evidence to support the wearing of masks or respirators during illness to protect others, and public health emphasis on mask wearing during illness may help to reduce influenza virus transmission”

bin-Reza: “Eight of nine retrospective observational studies found that mask and ⁄ or respirator use was independently associated with a reduced risk of severe acute respiratorysyndrome (SARS). ”

Smith: they are comparing N95 to surgical masks not any mask to no mask. Still, they find “In the surrogate exposure studies, N95 respirators were associated with less filter penetration, less face-seal leakage and less total inward leakage under laboratory experimental conditions, compared with surgical masks.”

Offeddu: “This systematic review and meta-analysis supports the use of respiratory protection.”

Radonovich: none of their results have p smaller than 0.05 so inconclusive. Also comparing N95 to surgical. Not mask vs no mask. Irrelevant

Long: Also comparing N95 to surgical. Not mask vs no mask. Irrelevant

Rancourt should be embarrassed. Furthermore, no good study launches into biased claim at all, let alone in the abstract. If you have good data, they speak for themselves and don’t need bluster.

#188 Cory on 05.29.20 at 8:58 pm

#74 Keep Your Rent on 05.28.20 at 7:21 pm

————————————————————————————————
Perfect so happy to see there will be a faster mechanism to get the Cons and Deadbeats squatters out. Keep your rent– I just want you out.

I second that.