Source: The Canadian Press
The virus is an agent of change. The transformation of society’s happening a lot faster since the pandemic came to town. Who knew a bug could do this? Look at the headlines…
The country’s biggest newspaper – in fact a company with real estate, presses, 4,000 employees, half-a-dozen dailies and 70 weeklies – just sold for pennies. Plunging revenues, crippling debt, social media carnivores and social distancing have finished off Torstar. Dead. Kaput.
Hertz is gone. Air Canada is at 5% capacity. Porter stopped flying. Most hotels are shuttered. Airbnb is toast. Uber is crippled. The pandemic ended global travel. Concerts. Conventions. For years, maybe a generation. The stay-at-home mantra changed everything. Netflix, not planes.
RIP the office. Millions may never return. Not only are elevators now death traps and the subway a mortal threat, but open work areas are impossible. So long as the virus lives, employers may insist on masks, temp checks and plexiglass screens to limit workplace liability. And who wants to toil in an ant farm? Work is now Zoom.
Shopping? Pfft. Have you seen the lineups to enter Costco? The grocery place? How can traditional department stores survive when people have to walk in one direction and stay six feet apart? They can’t. Neiman Marcus went broke. So did J Crew, and JC Penny. Pier 1. Reitman’s. Aldo. Victoria’s Secret. Lots more coming. Online or nothing.
This is but a taste of the reset. Some of it we saw coming. Some was a surprise. Evolution’s become revolution. The pace of this is dizzying – just two and a half months of Covid have destroyed business models in place for decades, and permanently wiped out of millions of jobs. Pilots used to be big shots. Concierges were condescending. Publishers were powerful. Hockey players and rock stars mattered. Now the FedEx guy reigns. Bezos is king.
And how long can government or the banks finance the change? Eight million households are on public benefits while a million property owners miss mortgage payments. What social morass awaits us when the CERB ends and home loan deferrals are gone?
Canadian unemployment goes ballistic.
How do we expect the traditional real estate market to function when unemployment stays at double-digits and lenders flee risk? Look at RBC. Our largest bank this week is setting aside almost $3 billion to cover bad loans – up inconceivably from $400 million just three months ago. Its core banking business shrank 66%. And how do you think the Royal will feel about giving your daughter 95% leverage to buy her first condo?
Many can see the changes fomenting around us. But so much more looms. Be careful.
A real estate reset is also at hand. How could it be otherwise now that 20% of all the families with mortgages have stopped paying and face a big, perhaps insurmountable, hurdle in a few months? Seven in ten of those households have scant equity in their homes, with loan-to-value ratios of 90 to 95%. Credible forecasters (CIBC, Moodys. CMHC) say property values will decline over the next year – no surprise given the destruction of jobs and employers now taking place. Obviously that means lots of souls – hundreds of thousands – will be in negative equity by this time next year. Maybe by Christmas.
Will RBC (and the other guys) happily renew mortgages for people without equity? Who stiffed the banks for six months worth of income? How many households will decide it’s far batter to sell and erase debt than suffer home ownership costs while on reduced income? When the direct deposits from Ottawa are over, what then?
Already, says analyst Dane Eitel in Vancouver, the writing is writ large. “CMHC’s announcement of a 9%-18% drop from current data points basically follows my forecast I have offered for years,” he says. In his latest YVR condo report there’s only one message – get the hell out.
“We forecast a prolonged downtrend of lower highs for the reaming months in 2020 and a further decline in 2021. Ultimately the condo market will test a threshold which hasn’t been seen since 2016. Signalling that 5 years of investment will have netted an investor zero increase of equity.
“The 2015 investor with a zero equity increase will be the envy of all those who invested during the market frenzy of 2017-2018. Every Condo purchased during these times will technically be under water in the upcoming years. Investing in real estate is not for the feint of heart. I vividly recall in 2017 the line ups for presales and the amount of complaining that occurred from those who didn’t get a chance to purchase because some investor bought multiple units. Thank your lucky stars those investors. Now it is them on the hook instead of you. In the upcoming months as those pre-sold buildings are completed you can purchase that same unit at a discount. Crazy how life works out.
“We do not advise any investment purchases or even owner occupied purchases in the current market. We would prefer buyers wait until prices are much lower as the inventory increases. Supply demand factors cannot be ignored. As for the investor owners who are about to be caught in this chaotic market, our advice, sell in May and go away… for years.”
Let’s review. Canadian households entered the Covid world with record debt. Half of us lived paycheque-to-paycheque. Unemployment is now at 1930s-levels. Huge numbers cannot, or chose not to, service their mortgages. House prices are inflated. Incomes are crumbling. Leverage is extreme. Savings are scant. A payment cliff looms. So deferrals will likely become defaults, as CMHC has forecast. Real estate values, no longer supported by full employment, must decline. Sales have tumbled.
And, yes, we’ve allowed real estate to become a major pillar of the economy, as we sell each other digs at ever-greater prices with bigger loans. At least, we did.
Think about that as you walk to the corner to get a paper. Oh, wait…
213 comments ↓
The banks aren’t stupid. They won’t create a run on their investments by foreclosing or refusing to renew mortgages at any significant rate.
Exactly how viruses that kill are unsuccessful relative to viruses that wound.
Renewals may not be rejected in any large number, but renewers may be asked for more equity. – Garth
City’s for years have been pushing density. So will those previously shamed for living in urban sprawl see the demand for their 3000 square foot house with a big lot and home office actually increase in value as cabin fever from sitting in a condo for three months sets in. I’m sure betting on it.
Speaking of shamed. We have now entered the era of mask shaming. The logic or science behind wearing masks is irrelevant, we always need to appear that we are doing something, and this is just the latest craze.
Just wait until all the employees forced to wear these pointless things realize they actually need to breath when summer temperatures hit and they get all sweaty with stale hot air and their skin starts having issues with a wet piece of cloth soaking your skin all day long. Might as well wear a literal diaper to at least get some absorption.
A.once in a decade opportunity to pick up discount equities?
8 million on CERB is apparently 13 % unemployment, not 40 %.
And 70 % decline in real estate values will be measured as 25 %.
Once GTA becomes Detroit-ized and it quickly is, real estate becomes huge liability that you can not technically get rid of.
What exactly has improved in GTA to justify 6-7 times (!) rises in prices of SFH in 2 decades – bunch of poor immigrants came in and suddenly were able to pay millions for substandard housing as ‘the economy is hot’ while real salaries have not increased?
And of course it has nothing to do with the crappy substandard high risk loans underwritten by lenders but ‘insured’ by CMHC?
No one has any money in this place, as skyrocketing cost of living and inflation quickly eats it. There is only debt. A lot of it.
How exactly can you get richer society through more and more debt while producing less and less is a mystery to me.
This place is toast. Run as fast as you can with your money while you still can.
There is no floor for this housing market/economy expect one dug by huge stagflation. You need technically no hyperinflation in order to get extremely poor, runaway inflation and stagflation will take care of business.
Cheers,
Economically, more and more people are becoming wards of the Crown. (The Crown Virus plan)
– The Crown provides their food (CERB)
– The Crown pays their rent (CERB)
– The Crown even said stop paying rent, squat instead. (RIP Capitalism)
– The Crown provides education, health care, CPP and GIS, and correction.
– Is this not cradle-to-grave communism? And who is paying for all of this?
Passive people will not rise up. They know this.
CERB is not going away; it is a prelude to UBI which is to be rolled globally. Again, we are in the data gathering phase for the next step.
Next up: would you be surprised if the coming
re-posessed houses and condos get nationalized via banks and government into free housing for other people?
Consider that the government is taking Equity stakes in *public companies* in exchange for funds. And holding them hostage with the New Green Deal.
Crown takeover lads. The Crown Bankers are using this Crown Virus to take back Crown land. Bank on it.
– What if…the Fed regulates landlords like utilities: you are allowed to charge your costs + x% markup only.
Imagine their announcement: Today this government announces action against reckless profiteering. A new department has been set up to oversee…
The cheers will go up from the CERB crowd. Overnight, landlords would become kneecapped and condo prices will plummet. Naw they’d never do this?
G&M piece today highlighted many points made on this blog recently and today.
Then it ended up the piece basically saying…will all these parties let this happen?
A point repeatedly made here. And just as we say, such actions wouldn’t surprise. So far CMHC is doing lots or talking, and then buying more debt from banks.
Action not empty words are needed to get Canadians off the debt crack.
“ But unless the federal government, the CMHC and the Bank of Canada resort to even more extraordinary measures to backstop borrowers – and nothing would surprise us – Canada’s real estate exception is about to end.”
DELETED
Oh….and F Bezos!
I never have and never will shop on Amazon as a matter of principle.
If you do, don’t complain or pretend to be outraged about how they treat employees as slave labour or put businesses out of business as you offload your laziness to go and get your own junk on another human being.
It’s you who’s doing it. Yeah you! With the Amazon box at your door. Oh, it got stolen? You have to call and claim? GOOD!
DELETED
#6 YouKnowWho on 05.27.20 at 1:48 pm
We were at the top of record total debt (public and private) per capita and GDP – in the world prior to the virus.
Now we are going in further record debt to subsidize idiotic ‘help’/income replacement programs. People should have EI or savings. Period.
Now demand for more ‘actions’ to help debtors with uber-ultra subprime debt? Excuse me. We are so close to total destruction of currency.
If the government is forced to back loans and mortgages and caves under pressure to provide continuous income to permanently unemployed we will be next Venezuela as our currency disintegrates under the debt load while the economy and GDP collapses.
You can’t spur ‘growth’ with money printing and more debt. You will only trigger tsunami of inflation in essentials.
Cheers,
Garth,
Lower Brainland has been an anomaly.
Single family homes selling like hot cakes still. Normal in lower brainland Fraser Valley where folks taking CREB payments live in million dollar homes.
GOVERNMENTS AND BANKERS SUPPORTED IT.
Oh Well.
Now they will both have to deal with it.
From foreclosure to bankruptcy one after another.
And then they’ll be powerless
https://youtu.be/Jr0kOia69bk
But but but REMAX says real estate will continue to go up. I don’t understand ……
Did you all not hear the Premier, just minutes ago, talk about the half million selfish idiots who want to keep going up to cottage country!?
Let me paraphrase:
STAY THE HELL AWAY, YOU IDIOTS!
Real estate markets are local. There will be serious declines for sure (which is good for the next generation of local kids), but then again other sudden forces in YVR and GTA may be unleashed. If Hong Kong loses their special status with the U.S., impacting many businesses there, and if China keeps tightening the leash there, I predict that there will be a large influx from the 300K Canadian citizens in HK who will want out. Hint: they won’t be moving to Moose Jaw, and many have significant financial resources.
I am cringing at how wrong this post will be in the future.
#1 Rico on 05.27.20 at 1:34 pm
The banks aren’t stupid. They won’t create a run on their investments by foreclosing or refusing to renew mortgages at any significant rate.
Exactly how viruses that kill are unsuccessful relative to viruses that wound.
Renewals may not be rejected in any large number, but renewers may be asked for more equity. – Garth
———
Here’s my question. Client refuses to provide additional equity to the bank and also refuses to take their mortgage elsewhere from their current banker.
What can the banker do outside of applying the posted rate on a 6 or 12 month mortgage term and retain the customer?
So long as payments continue to be made, the bank seems to be stuck.
Hard to disagree with everything your saying Garth.
In my opinion we’re at least 8 years past a needed reality check for RE thanks to the BoC’s bungling of interest rates.
Could all this new COVID inflow of free money create inflation and rising rates or not a chance ? Thx.
There is nothing I like more than reading the Saturday newspapers (both nationals) with a small glass of schnaps, but recently I decided to stop reading the Globe & Mail. $6.00 bucks for the hard copy ( it’s a tactile thing ) and getting thinner every weekend. Much as I liked to read Eric Reguly and Mark McKinnon, I also was getting tired of the content sounding more and more like the CBC. Too damn liberal for my taste, and continually harping on the same tired set of issues that Trudeau Liberals bleat away on, but never really wanting to have any serious conversation about. To solve problems, serious people know that everything has to be put on the table. Kimono’s must be fully opened.
The media has failed us for some time. Look no further than the three year circus known as RussiaGate. A complete hoax that wasted America’s resources, distracted from the real issues of the day, and was picked up and run with like a pigskin in an amateur football game by the entire world media. Mercy. Thank dog John Durham is going to round up the obvious suspects later this summer, just in time to give the Orange Man a little boost in his re-election campaign.
The media is also currently failing us with the Covid
calamity. Not digging into the facts or asking the hard but pertinent questions of those accountable to the citizens of this country. To get any real information one has to ‘sleuth’ it from the internet, which is full of misinformation, but if you know where to look for credible sources still reveals more than the pablum we get spoon fed every day by whose who used to call themselves journalists. Christie Blatchford is sorely missed.
As for the Covid Reset, it’s only the latest accomplice of a dark shadow that has been chasing society and gaining ground for some time now. It’s called ‘the end of egalitarianism’. Here’s the definition to save the mutts on the blog unfamiliar with the reference -” the principle that all people are equal and deserve equal rights and opportunities.”. In short, it isn’t just the economy that is being turned back in time to the ‘dirty thirties’. It also the gap between those who have and those who don’t. The middle class is about to be squeezed into a pair of Jordache Jeans from the 1970’s that unfortunately just don’t fit anymore. Only those who keep themselves and their finances ‘in shape’ will be able to pull it off on the runway.
“The fatal metaphor of progress, which means leaving things behind us, has utterly obscured the real idea of growth, which means leaving things inside of us. –G.K. Chesterton.
Ain’t it the truth.
DELETED? Really? Not sure why…so let’s try this again:
–
–
–
It’s a good time for a world reset.
I just don’t understand how the “drama queen” in office is being allowed this dictatorship. The mainstream Canadian media is so busy trying to dump on Trump, but there has been no one holding our own leader accountable for all the reckless spending and poor decision making. We are all going to foot this bill – for the rest of our lives. Something all you voters in Ontario and Quebec need to start thinking about. Because no matter how us west-coasters vote, you are the ones who keep this guy in office.
For some people it is the best of times, with even better times coming than they could have ever imagined. For others, the exact opposite is the stark truth. This is merely my humble opinion.
Thank you for your #1 blog Garth, which has helped so many people.
Freedom First
immunity passports
….”some of the industries that are pushing the hardest for immunity are ones that have terrible records when it comes to regulatory compliance. Take nursing homes, which have already received a form of covid immunity from New York State. “…
Terrible Records
In fact, some of the industries that are pushing the hardest for immunity are ones that have terrible records on regulatory compliance. Take nursing homes, which have already received a form of COVID-19 immunity from New York State.
That business includes the likes of Kindred Healthcare, which has had to pay out more than $350 million in fines and settlements. The bulk of that amount has come from cases in which Kindred and its subsidiaries were accused of violating the False Claims Act by submitting inaccurate or improper bills to Medicare and Medicaid. Another $40 million has come from wage and hour fines and settlements.
Kindred has also been fined more than $4 million for deficiencies in its operations. This includes more than $3 million it paid to settle a case brought by the Kentucky attorney general over issues such as “untreated or delayed treatment of infections leading to sepsis.”…
Meatpackers, Too
Or consider the meatpacking industry. It has experienced severe outbreaks yet is keeping open many facilities.
This sector includes companies such as WH Group, the Chinese firm that has acquired well-known businesses such as Smithfield. WH Group’s operations have paid a total of $137 million in penalties from large environmental settlements as well as dozens of workplace safety violations.
Similar examples can be found throughout the economy. read more @
https://dirtdiggersdigest.org/archives/6587
https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/wh-group
=================================
The FBI is boosting the identification and investigation of nursing homes that exploit residents financially and fail to meet their basic needs.
19 O Sole Mio on 05.27.20 at 2:23 pm
“All” you voters in Quebec and Ontario?
Read the election result map:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election
MF
@McSteve, post #3
That once in a decade opportunity was 2.5 months ago, did you miss it?
QUOTE:
Pilots used to be big shots. Concierges were condescending. Publishers were powerful. Hockey players and rock stars mattered. Now the FedEx guy reigns. Bezos is king.
============================
Yep:
How the mighty have fallen.
Pilots…..what is the future…how does one take social distancing rules on the ground and translate to 30,000 ft up ?
Not sure what games Gary Bettman is trying…just pull the plug on the NHL season…players are not in game shape…teams in the playoff hunt have lost momentum..and then when do you start the next season…(if ever?) with a short off- season.
#18 the Jaguar on 05.27.20 at 2:22 pm
Actually the pandemic has done the opposite, and pushed many people (me included) back to the msm.
The rest of the internet is loaded, as you say, with misinformation, conspiracy theories and other trash about elites and bill gates. No thanks I’ll take my chances on the msm with this topic.
MF
Wow what’s this…slow steps toward a new plan, daily:
TSX exchange announces trading in Sustainable Bonds will finally take place.
“Bonds where the proceeds are used to finance projects that bring clear sustainable and/or social-economic benefits”
…
Imagine a time when, under the New Green Deal Feds are pushing in order to do business you must meet all the green requirements by law – else cannot operate or raise funds? After all the Fed pushed for equity stakes and voices in public companies just now didn’t they.
This all per UN requirement – sustainable means End of Capitalism imo. We’ll see..
https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/outcomedocuments/agenda21
#19 O Sole Mio on 05.27.20 at 2:23 pm
The “drama queen” in office is being allowed this dictatorship because governments (starting with Trudeau Pere) have progressively centralized power in the PMO over the past 35 years. You should ask our gracious host about his experiences with that.
Why has this happened? Because your average Canadian voter is careless of democracy. I have tried to get people to understand their role in this, and they’d prefer to focus on their pet outrages rather than on the substance of this ongoing experiment.
#17 Stone on 05.27.20 at 2:19 pm
#1 Rico on 05.27.20 at 1:34 pm
The banks aren’t stupid. They won’t create a run on their investments by foreclosing or refusing to renew mortgages at any significant rate.
Exactly how viruses that kill are unsuccessful relative to viruses that wound.
Renewals may not be rejected in any large number, but renewers may be asked for more equity. – Garth
———
Here’s my question. Client refuses to provide additional equity to the bank and also refuses to take their mortgage elsewhere from their current banker.
What can the banker do outside of applying the posted rate on a 6 or 12 month mortgage term and retain the customer?
So long as payments continue to be made, the bank seems to be stuck.
———————————————————
Well, you’ve defaulted on your mortgage, so they can begin foreclosure.
Would they? Different question. But they hold all the power here.
#154 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.27.20 at 2:09 pm
In case anyone was wondering where those words came from. Great Texas blues song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv4B0xK8rNs
—-
Deguello is a sweet album.
“I like ’em frozen but you understand
I throw ’em in and wave ’em and I’m a brand new man, oh yeah!”
#23 MF on 05.27.20 at 2:31 pm
That’s interesting. So it’s not Ontario and Quebec, but Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal that are (effectively) deciding the government for the rest of Canada. (Yes, Vancouver and Winnipeg get honourable mention, but it is these three narrowly-interested metros that call the shots.) This as it has always been. Canada was deliberately structured to abuse the country outside of those areas as a source of raw materials for their industry, and without a new constitution, nothing will change.
Garth in response to post #1 you said “Renewals may not be rejected in any large number, but renewers may be asked for more equity. – Garth”
Does that possibly mean signing over a percentage of your home to the bank?
Personally I think that is more fair than a bailout of homeowners.
So economic problems of historical proportions the world over, jobs and business decimated, and yet the markets are within spitting range of all time highs!
Simply astonishing how the “blog dogs” pat themselves on the back for being savvy investors holding onto equities riding what exactly? Fundamentals? They’re a disaster.
They are riding the same stimulus wave that homeowners and landlords have been riding. We’re all in the same boat, hoping for government largesse to keep the party going.
A real estate reset is also at hand. How could it be otherwise now that 20% of all the families with mortgages have stopped paying and face a big, perhaps insurmountable, hurdle in a few months? Seven in ten of those households have scant equity in their homes, with loan-to-value ratios of 90 to 95%.
———————————-
Won’t the Eau-bros (Trud, Morn) and the CMHC simply intervene yet again and dictate to the banks to extend the deferral period for deadbeat borrowers? No borrower asking for a deferral shall be denied, said CMHC.
And how long can government or the banks finance the change?
—————————————
I Jerome the Printing Press Powell say, forever. Resets, recessions, bear markets and corrections are simply prohibited at all costs.
You’re welcome.
#28 Kurt on 05.27.20 at 2:45 pm
#19 O Sole Mio on 05.27.20 at 2:23 pm
Why has this happened? Because your average Canadian voter is careless of democracy. I have tried to get people to understand their role in this, and they’d prefer to focus on their pet outrages rather than on the substance of this ongoing experiment.
———————————————————–
Canadians ruined Canada. They don’t understand democracy since they vote for people you don’t like. Obviously, they need to learn “how to vote” so that we may all be free!
Democracy is too precious to leave it at the hands of voters!
Freedom is slavery!
Undersized lot. Fourteen offers, in the midst of the pandemic. East Vancouver house, with the occasional whiff of industrial slaughterhouse when the wind is right. Yours for 2 million, counting taxes and costs. The beat goes on.
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/bidding-war-erupts-for-heritage-home-during-the-pandemic/?fbclid=IwAR3zlzZNI0m5_Q9_qQeoOOHKVlvCop3b-P_m7_j6V0OlSSxppaz7vzeZcSA
first…anyone who has been “predicting” a real estate collapse for years has zero credibility…..Dane Eitel in Vancouver, the writing is writ large. “CMHC’s announcement of a 9%-18% drop from current data points basically follows my forecast I have offered for years,”
second…to assume the “gov’t” has this scenario playing out just the way they planned it is absurd…they can’t plan what to have for dinner
I have a relative that owned a small business in a strip mall, and when Walmart came to town and took over the space vacated by Woolco…they approached all the merchants and assured them they would try to avoid any competition with them where at all possible, because they have found over their history there is no upside to bankrupting 90% of the businesses in the mall ….unfortunately Bazos doesn’t have to take that into consideration
From two week self isolation in order “flatten the curve” to the situation described above. Who indeed would have thought? And all this with nary a whimper from the masses.
We’ve cut off both legs because one had a scratch. All this to reduce the chance of infection. Unbelievable!
Certain foundations, the usual characters, are getting rich from the covid debacle. Unless one is elderly and already sick, the risk of dying OF covid is on par with getting struck by lightning. Yet the media continues to pour gas on covid embers.
There are effective treatments for covid yet the vaccine pushers insist they are the only way forward. And unfortunately too many people believe this. They will make billions from selling vaccines to the masses.
The real economy is being destroyed to usher in a nanny state under medical tyranny. We’re treated like cattle. And it’s happening at lightning speed because too many people are hopeless.
How indeed can government support the many millions out of work? Will the government keep its mitts off of the tidy sum accumulated by those “responsible ones” through smarts and discipline? Or will those of means be looted to feed the “non essentials” for the “greater good?
It’s beginning to look more and more that humanity is a dead race walking. Our lives are being stripped away and they won’t be handed back. People will need to take a stand to take them back.
Don’t worry, housing is so deeply engrained into the psyche of Canadians that they will suffer untold amounts of hardships to keep it.
Much like money, you just gotta believe in it.
#14 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.27.20 at 2:16 pm
Did you all not hear the Premier, just minutes ago, talk about the half million selfish idiots who want to keep going up to cottage country!?
————————-
This PM?
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-pm-a-giant-hypocrite-for-going-to-cottage-after-saying-physical-distancing-rules-are-for-everyone/wcm/43e8975e-81a4-4cdc-a262-c6b9abdb6eaf/amp
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-taxpayers-spend-25-million-for-reconstruction-of-guest-cottage-at/
From a few hours ago. These guys are so predictable:
“#150 TurnerNation on 05.27.20 at 12:55 pm
138 Ministry of truth ask yourself why are they telling you this now?
Facts are, the lockdowns prevented not one death in old age homes.
The residents are being kept locked in their rooms, no communal visits, no contact or visits from family.
Does this sound like they care?
No it’s a massive distraction, maybe aiming to take over all old age homes. If that’s so..expect more of the same.
”
Breaking news…yup they are taking over. Keep a close eye on your loved ones in there. From the moment troops were sent I know something was up:
https://www.cp24.com/news/ford-says-province-will-take-over-five-long-term-care-homes-including-four-listed-in-military-s-report-1.4956436
Honestly, I believe when the vaccine arrives and the vast amount have it everything will go back to normal. Or it’s added to the annual flu shot. Recommended but not required.
#37 Keith on 05.27.20 at 3:20 pm
Undersized lot. Fourteen offers, in the midst of the pandemic. East Vancouver house, with the occasional whiff of industrial slaughterhouse when the wind is right. Yours for 2 million, counting taxes and costs. The beat goes on.
———————
“This is a seller’s market. Briefly. Don’t blow it.”
Garth May 21st post
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/05/21/last-chance/
^^ Sienna REIT owns some of those retirement homes taken over. Is this the first seizure of private real assets?
As always, in my opinion the Crown’s Bankers are using the Crown Virus to take back Crown Land.
A rather gloomy column but I have to agree with all that was written. I took a walk in a recently opened mall today and it was a dismal exercise indeed. If things are not soon brought back into full swing we are going to see a real collapse. I am not a mystic nor am I a conspiracy theorist, but I have a gut feeling that all this was a planned event, and that we are just at misery’s tip.
Mr. Turner, you are a beautiful man. For every pigeon that spews negative nonsense at you, there are many more of us (the silent majority) that deeply value and treasure your insights. It was time for a societal wake up call. Many people don’t like to hear the truth. Trudy is destroying our beautiful country. I just hope we can salvage it before it deteriorates into a socialist welfare state. IMO as a country with the greatest people in the world and abundant natural resources, we should be the crown jewel sitting on top of America. Our dollar should be on par with the Swiss Franc. Instead we are laughed at on a global stage and our dollar is slowly turning into Monopoly money. A country is a business, not a charity.
BNS and RBC added – substantially – to their loan loss provisions… who thinks they did this on a whim, instead of based on rigorous review and models?
Ultimately the condo market will test a threshold which hasn’t been seen since 2016. Signalling that 5 years of investment will have netted an investor zero increase of equity.
————————————
What, exactly, is the problem here? I paid equivalent rent during that same time period and also have zero increase in equity to show for it. Yet, in both cases, a home was available to live in for all that time.
Even if there had been an equity gain, the home would have to be sold to realize it. Then you have some money but no home. Why is that such a hard concept?
… but stocks are making a killing. Awesome.
An aside:
An interesting example of the fractal (self-similar) nature of markets today. Look at a plot of the S&P index from open to about 2PM today. Looks almost identical to a plot of daily closing from Feb 21 until now.
Initial drop, small resurgence, steep drop, rapid recovery, steady climb with dips.
Not making any assumptions of future performance, but neato if you ask me.
“Rico on 05.27.20 at 1:34 pm
The banks aren’t stupid. They won’t create a run on their investments by foreclosing or refusing to renew mortgages at any significant rate.
Exactly how viruses that kill are unsuccessful relative to viruses that wound.
Renewals may not be rejected in any large number, but renewers may be asked for more equity. – Garth”
Blood from a stone. Work through the sequence:
1. homeowner can’t provide more equity
2. bank renews at a higher interest rate(?)
2b. or bank forecloses
3. bank now owns the house
4. bank sells the house, likely below market since banks don’t want to own houses
5. all RE values drop
6. the next renewal requires even more equity
7. goto 1
It’s not going to happen.
Facts. Frightening.
To read a list of viable companies gone is not Creative Destruction at work per theory, just plain old Destruction in reality.
Today’s Blog Garth scares the bejesus out of me.
RBC taking a 66% drop in core business and a $3 Billion bath in loans…inconceivable, cannot wrap my mind around at what the consequences of that will be.
Americans trying to nip what is happening in the bud by going back to work. Well, today news that Georgia’s case count increases 26% in 1 week. Imagine how that will play out in the minds of the people in that State and is what, just 10 days or so after reopening? More to come there.
You cannot win for losing thanks to that damn, insidious virus.
Some GOOD NEWS that it WILL get better Canada:
Here in Italia all going well, fewer than 400 cases in the entire nation and deaths less than 100 per day and declining by quite a bit (as are cases & C-19 ICU beds)…no flies dropping since the phased reopening that began on Apr. 14th.
Economy pretty much ALL OPEN but of course you wouldn’t know that from the N. American MSM. Travel to/from Italia opens June 3rd. No details if foreigners will be quarantined upon arrival as the Brits are doing now.
Had a good laugh today about Mother Nature and her ways.
Summer Beach Culture Italia welcomed by Great White and Mako Sharks reappearing in numbers off Italian shores.
Mother Nature, if she can’t hunt you down and smite you with a virus…there is always JAWS.
This week, some of our big banks reported an increase of loan loss provisions (LLPs) for bad debts. This is for preparation in the coming months that people are unable to pay for their mortgages.
If these loans are covered by CMHC insurance, doesn’t that mean CMHC will pay the banks for these bad loans?
Doesn’t that mean the risk is put on CMHC, not these big banks?
So buy these bank stocks now?
The Toronto Star has been spewing post-modern neo-Marxist propaganda for years and the audience has voted with their dollars……..they are the author of their own demise.
I wouldn’t believe the vaccine carrot being dangled in front of us as a requirement if we are to get our lives back is sincere. Can Gates et al behind the medical tyranny be trusted? Anyone paying attention would answer a resounding NO.
Prediction: Vaccines with God knows what in them will soon be made mandatory. And once given, the narrative will again change in that we are not completely covered from covid or whatever new virus appears, hence certain restrictions and/or increased surveillance/monitoring will remain.
The few’s fortunes are skyrocketing on the backs, the suffering of the many. They present themselves as philanthropists serving humanity while pursuing ever more power, wealth and control. They want to transform the world the way they see fit. What small part if any will be left in it for us?
#47 SaveOurGreatCountry on 05.27.20 at 3:59 pm
Kinda what happens when a country is pinned to two asset classes — resources and real estate — or three if you count banks. Oil is on its way out (kicking and screaming), RE may take a hard hit and injur the banks along the way. All of this policy predates Trudeau. However, he’s had a few years now to fix the mess and has done little.
I see a direct relationship between the underperforming TSX and the oil struggle bus, diversion of capital to RE and RE debt servicing, and high dividends. Way too much money and credit has been tied up into an incredibly backward looking, un-innovative and oligopolistic banking and RE sectors. Doling out dividend cash to investors instead of leveraging those dollars within corps makes your stock popular, but does nothing to stimulate creative growth. It’s no coincidence that many of the most innovative publicly traded companies have a near zero dividend. BRK.B is another example. Buffet is smart enough to direct capital to where it has leverage and knows share holders will (eventually) benefit.
What I’m finding interesting is the CNN headline that trumpets USA coronavirus death toll nears 99,000. In point of fact it has been over 100,000 for the past two days & may well crack 102,000 before the end of today. Maybe they don’t want that psychological barrier to stop the DJI from its current romp upwards. Meanwhile, the Donald is angry that Twitter has fact checked some of his outright Tweetie-lies. Wants to shut it down in retaliation. If only he would. Nothing like cutting off one’s nose!
10 DAYS.
I’ve been following this pandemic, before it was that in late December, scant news reports from China and then S. Korea and then, Italia in January. Posted on Twitter every day for months deaths, cases, ICU beds for Italia.
One thing I have noticed in the past few months, over and over again, is the predictability of the virus.
You have a mass gathering of people not distancing and wearing masks, it takes:
10 DAYS
to manifest as case increases and deaths.
May long weekend Covidiots I think is what the Toronto Sun called them, well, give it 10 days…see if Mother Nature is benevolent to Canadians.
Like clockwork that damn virus. Have seen that happen here in Italia and the UK numerous times. Germans and French silent on the topic, as usual…speak no evil, count no evil…
For morbid fun, keep track yourselves…10 days.
Neiman Marcus went broke. So did J Crew, and JC Penny. Pier 1. Reitman’s. Aldo. Victoria’s Secret.
Garth
==============
OK Phartzy…
Time to get out of return line-up.
Meanwhile, Parliament has signed off for the summer, thanks to the Liberals and the Dippers, despite Covid-19, mounting personal and governmental debt, impending mortgage defaults, myriad bankruptcies, China and Huawei, the ongoing long term care home atrocity, and the flight of capital from Canada. And the prime minister pontificates from a tent.
“Feasibility Assessment”
https://www.shouldice.com/coronavirus-update/
#153 IHCTD9 on 05.27.20 at 2:03 pm
#152 MF on 05.27.20 at 1:23 pm
#142 IHCTD9 on 05.27.20 at 11:23 am
Wrong.
——
Dude, serious question. Not trying to be a dick.
Do you have some kind of reading comprehension issues? Maybe a mild case of RCD?
How could you possibly read me citing citizenship rates and think I was talking about current overall immigration numbers?
You made the exact same mistakes when I cited intraprovincial migration stats a while back.
Just sayin. Curious because it keeps happening over and over…
—-
Oh, and I should add, immigrants DO care about debt, taxes housing costs, congestion, quality of life etc…
It just takes a few years of slogging for them to understand what they’ve got themselves into here in Canada.
That’s why 30+ % of them bail within ten years of being here…
the 6 major canadian banks reign over canada. Justin is their puppet…
Sunny ways my friends, sunny ways. Our head honcho, Mr. Justin Trudeau, has it all under control. No need to worry.
BB
10 day Debbie Downer here.
I do not believe there will be a vaccine. I mean the common cold is a coronavirus. So is the common flu and they don’t always get that vaccine 100% protective.
They claim they had a SARS vaccine before it just disappeared, another coronavirus, never got to use it so who knows how that would have worked?
I say this so people will not get there hopes up for some magical unicorn vaccine that may never come.
Meanwhile, a 100 or so pharmaceutical companies raking in the cash from Gov’s Worldwide.
In the end, probably a drug cocktail that will dampen what can end up killing you, making you very sick and mitigate the cytokine storm that comes with a severe infection. A drug cocktail just like they have for HIV.
-Debbie Downer
And yet the media can’t help itself shilling houses:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-buyers-coming-off-the-sidelines-in-toronto-housing-market/
Had a pleasant evening at my millennial daughter’s new rented condo last night. Nice place, a couple of years old, good view and great location. At this moment her landlord is netting just under 2% (and is grateful because she pays her rent).
She isn’t stupid enough to buy a house.
#17 Stone on 05.27.20 at 2:19 pm
#1 Rico on 05.27.20 at 1:34 pm
#29 Tater on 05.27.20 at 2:56 pm
The banks aren’t stupid. They won’t create a run on their investments by foreclosing or refusing to renew mortgages at any significant rate.
Exactly how viruses that kill are unsuccessful relative to viruses that wound.
Renewals may not be rejected in any large number, but renewers may be asked for more equity. – Garth
———
Here’s my question. Client refuses to provide additional equity to the bank and also refuses to take their mortgage elsewhere from their current banker.
What can the banker do outside of applying the posted rate on a 6 or 12 month mortgage term and retain the customer?
So long as payments continue to be made, the bank seems to be stuck.
———————————————————
Well, you’ve defaulted on your mortgage, so they can begin foreclosure.
Would they? Different question. But they hold all the power here.
—————————————————————–
Mortgages have clauses as to what happens if you don’t renew or move the mortgage to another lender. For example, I believe that my mortgage would become a 6 month term mortgage at some awful rate that’s more than double my current rate.
Not sure what games Gary Bettman is trying… – Lost…but not leased.
I have heard that the TV contract money will not be paid unless a NHL season is played, or it’s equivalent.
The show must go on because the NHL will get the American TV deal money. It will be a financial hit if they do not get it.
I am thankful for the pandemic reducing the Torstar rag to rubble. That paper wasn’t worth the ink it was printed with and the online version is just as lame.
I hope all the MSM can learn to code…from home.
To that #14 Cottagers stay away guy:
Too late! Been up already… Shopped at your local businesses. Enjoyed the fire and the lake and the river…
We’ll be back soon! See you then !
#58 Faron on 05.27.20 at 4:36 pm
—
Do you have any idea what Canada even is? Its a poorly capitalized northern backwater that just happens to sit on $50T in raw resources that we are too lazy or stupid to fully develop. Our only claim to G7 status is because we are tied at the hip to the US. We would be another Italy if that were not the case.
What industries would like to have here? I mean facebook and google can move here anytime. All that manufacturing can come back from china too. Nothing is stopping it. Green energy? Start building it. There are about a 3 million square miles of uninhabited cloud covered forest and tundra to put those panels up.
We are damned lucky to have those resources and if this place was run by the Chinese you can bet they would be flying off the coasts instead of the navel gazing idiocy we do in this country.
“ And how do you think the Royal will feel about giving your daughter 95% leverage to buy her first condo?”
They shouldn’t but if CMHC is on the hook for it anyways…
117 WUL on 05.26.20 at 11:06 pm
Curiously, I was in a liquor emporium the other day in Fort Mac. My car knows the way there without AI devices. The quite young lady working there was from India and she was as bedazzling as the stock on the shelves. So, I chatted with her. She came here alone and left all family back home. She is university educated. I said to her, jokingly, “So, you must love winter.” She said she did! She grew weary of +45 degree Celsius temps.
****************************************
WUL, Thanks for your perspectives from Ft.Mac. I lived there for a couple of years in the early 80’s. I was a contractor to Syncrude and was provided company housing in Abasands. I enjoyed the comradery both at work and after work with the young hard-working people that the community attracted and it was an incredible resume builder for us all.
A few years later I landed my first EPC job with Partec Lavalin in Calgary (thanks mostly to that part of my resume). This gave me another level of experience that led to many great international projects. I always credit Ft. Mac and Syncrude for leading me into the next phase of my career.
I drove by my original Partec Lavalin office building this morning and there was a sign up saying “Cannabis shop coming soon”. What was once a great international engineering office will now be a store selling pot. Well played Canada! At least all the unemployed can legally use pot to help them sleep at night.
Undersized lot. Fourteen offers, in the midst of the pandemic. East Vancouver house, with the occasional whiff of industrial slaughterhouse when the wind is right. Yours for 2 million, counting taxes and costs. The beat goes on.
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/bidding-war-erupts-for-heritage-home-during-the-pandemic/?fbclid=IwAR3zlzZNI0m5_Q9_qQeoOOHKVlvCop3b-P_m7_j6V0OlSSxppaz7vzeZcSA
———————————————
It’s Vancouver where house prices will never go down, and it has excellent feng shui.
Great column. We have what Richard Koo the Nomura economist now calls “balance sheet recession”. This is what Japan has suffered over the last 30 years. A balance sheet recession typically happens after the bursting of a debt-financed bubble. In the bubble days, people leverage themselves up, and once the bubble bursts, liabilities remain, asset prices collapse and people realize their net worth is underwater. When that happens, people start repairing their net worth (balance sheets) by paying down debt or increasing savings, which is basically the same thing. That’s the right thing to do at the micro level: everyone in that situation has to get their financial house in order. But when everybody does it all at the same time, it hurts the economy by lowering consumption. Its vicious downward cycle.
Ask not for whom the bell tolls………..
#59Linda-Yeah you are right-Jack Dorsey for Emperor of the World-why not-the stupid sheep would love it so lets campaign for it. You probably aren’t aware that Twitter is legally a Platform not a Publisher, which is the reason Twitter is legally not liable for anything on Twitter-now that Twitter is censoring and editing it is acting like a Publisher and should be open to liability like any other Publisher.
#69 Stoph on 05.27.20 at 5:10 pm
#17 Stone on 05.27.20 at 2:19 pm
#1 Rico on 05.27.20 at 1:34 pm
#29 Tater on 05.27.20 at 2:56 pm
The banks aren’t stupid. They won’t create a run on their investments by foreclosing or refusing to renew mortgages at any significant rate.
Exactly how viruses that kill are unsuccessful relative to viruses that wound.
Renewals may not be rejected in any large number, but renewers may be asked for more equity. – Garth
———
Here’s my question. Client refuses to provide additional equity to the bank and also refuses to take their mortgage elsewhere from their current banker.
What can the banker do outside of applying the posted rate on a 6 or 12 month mortgage term and retain the customer?
So long as payments continue to be made, the bank seems to be stuck.
———————————————————
Well, you’ve defaulted on your mortgage, so they can begin foreclosure.
Would they? Different question. But they hold all the power here.
—————————————————————–
Mortgages have clauses as to what happens if you don’t renew or move the mortgage to another lender. For example, I believe that my mortgage would become a 6 month term mortgage at some awful rate that’s more than double my current rate.
———
You are correct. If they need to hold onto you, the bank will get the equivalent of your firstborn out of you. That’s why asking a customer to inject more equity to reduce the mortgage amount sounds ridiculous. Won’t happen.
On the other hand, miss a payment, kiss your house goodbye.
“Hertz is gone. Air Canada is at 5% capacity. Porter stopped flying. Most hotels are shuttered. Airbnb is toast. Uber is crippled. The pandemic ended global travel. Concerts. Conventions. For years, maybe a generation. The stay-at-home mantra changed everything. Netflix, not planes.”
Garth I love the blog, but these statements seem a bit at odds with the idea you have been conveying of “pandemics are temporary.” I understand that you are mentioning specifics here, but a generation of travel, concerts and conventions halted due to the virus? This seems doubtful, especially if you maintain that pandemics are temporary. Also, Airbnb may go away for sometime, but even if the company vanishes, another will replace it because demand for affordable short term travel isn’t going anywhere- at least not on a long time frame
Am I missing something? Or when you say temporary do you mean that in a vague time frame- 2, 5, 10 years?
Btw I’m enjoying the real estate posts
” “We forecast a prolonged downtrend of lower highs for the reaming months in 2020 and a further decline in 2021.” ”
It’s Freudian. But it’s not wrong.
Genius Dane Eitel says not now from his Mom’s basement bedroom?
2016 price levels? Yawn. You should not put your life on hold a decade to achieve 2016 price levels.
And the whole ironic part of the conversation – past and present in Canada – is that is all leads to the same conclusion – buying real estate.
Save your money, time it, get rich so you can….wait for it…drum roll…so, you can buy a house.
Forget timing. If you can afford it, do it. Just like investing there is never a bad time to get into a house if you have the money and can afford the lifestyle of home ownership. This year might be a discount, but the overall trend will uptick just like inflation.
Don’t count on the floor falling out of RE. The gov is too invested and exposed in the RE sector.
They have the tools of ending the stress test and/or increasing amorts.
Concur with the stop buying stuff from Amazon! Bezos doesn’t need your sale. Here on the west coast, I’ve been supporting local businesses where possible more than ever (books, food, misc) and during COVID, you bet they’ve happily delivered and made buying from them easy. Now go out and support your local farmers, food producers etc. We’ll rebuild but we’re going to have to support those businesses in our communities who are already here.
New Normal = Brainwashed …
Nothing to see here folks, move along, roll up your sleeve for your anti covid shot …
You’ve just entered the Twilight Zone …
Toronto Telegram with it’s vile smelling ink on alternating pink and yellow newsprint sections ceased to exist in 1971, now the Star is gone too!
Other than that tidbit, you really chummed the waters well tonight Garth!
#68 Leftover
Had a pleasant evening at my millennial daughter’s new rented condo last night. Nice place, a couple of years old, good view and great location. At this moment her landlord is netting just under 2% (and is grateful because she pays her rent).
She isn’t stupid enough to buy a house.
===========================
We’ll see how renters strikes work…
I’ve said previously that the most toxic Real Estate will be those newer stratas…especially hi- rise…that people lined- up to buy, paid peak price…and are nearing completion. These have all the indications of being a fiscal disaster. Buyers will have trouble financing…or try to bail…and it will take years to have full occupancy.
Otherwise…
What I am seeing….is very few “For Sale” signs in Metro Vancouver for existing established detached or strata…and a high % of them have SOLD.
#56 YEG Ambassador on 05.27.20 at 4:23 pm
The Toronto Star has been spewing post-modern neo-Marxist propaganda for years and the audience has voted with their dollars……..they are the author of their own demise.
——
Yep, I won’t miss the Toronto Tsar one bit.
Hopefully the CBC is next.
#26 – right on….exactly how many are now coming to realize.
#87 – and how long have those solds been on the market, and how much was the selling price…..?
#83 – with so much unemployment who is going to buy these still over priced homes…? Dream on!
Here is a little food for thought
As of February 2020 the top ten sectors generated 80% of total Canadian GDP.
Billions
Real estate, rental and leasing. $285.7
Wholesale and retail trade $231.2
Manufacturing. $222.6
Minerals, oil and gas. $165.2
Construction $160.18
Health care & Social assistance. $159.1
Financial & Insurance $150.2
Public administration. $150.1
Professional services. $135.3
Education. $113.6
$1,774.0
The sectors of our economy that actually produce something or sell a natural resource are in trouble and the balance of 2020 looks pretty bleak for the productive components of GDP. Canada must generate additional revenue from their economy and printing money by the truckload is only useful if it results in an increase of productivity.
We need real plans to expand productivity and we needed to start preparing these plans three months ago.
#57 Coho on 05.27.20 at 4:29 pm
Can Gates et al behind the medical tyranny be trusted? Anyone paying attention would answer a resounding NO.
————————-
Just dangerous conspiracy peddling…just like digital tracking/tracing (Amazon web services facilitating Australia’s and who our mop haired PM contracted to ‘deliver medical supplies in Canada.’ Coincidence. Rogers chose Ericsson for 5G equip, Bell/Telus want Huawei b/c cheaper (subsidy deal). Many cities worldwide rolled out 5G Feb-Mar used (can facilitate digital tracking/tracing but also hospitals.) Coincidence. Along w/Ont reviewing right to informed consent. Not like big tech has been called out for privacy breeches/data mining etc. and I’m sure an app can accurately trace viruses w/o false positives etc and paid contact tracers won’t risk healthy humans in quarantine/house arrest. An easy injected chip implant (now in Sweden…and animals) would help. Maybe a two for one? A vaccine/implant and later digital ID all in one shot. Just more conspiracy. Trust your govts, corp media and all the famous on IG and Zoom keeping us all safe (well except those denied medical care/procedures on hold.) And stay home. ; )
Go back…..nothing is permanent. Lol
RE: #54 Dolce Vita on 05.27.20 at 4:20 pm
Some GOOD NEWS that it WILL get better Canada:
/////////////////////////////
If you try to say this on Canadian media, you get seriously flamed down. People threaten you.
The virus, according to our media, is here to stay. Social distancing is “the new normal”. We will never go back to the way things were. The old life is over.
Whenever we get a whiff that things might not be as dire as the government says, news stories about a new and terrible thing, possibly caused by the virus, break, and we all have to go back and huddle in our homes, afraid for our lives.
Everyone here seems to be drinking the cool aid.
I talk to people in Southern USA who think we are nuts up here. I tell them, our border with the USA will probably never re-open, because it would just be too unsafe. They tell me “that is what Kim Jong tells the North Koreans about their border with South Korea”.
Apparently, while Canada remains on perma-lockdown, adjusting to the “new normal”, the rest of the world is waking up, shaking off its tail feathers and marching onwards.
First, climate change was going to get us. We were told we would have to go into food and resource rationing as the world was ending.
Now the virus is coming.
The age of the new media, combined with Liberal Socialist governments, is just unbelievable. Back in the day, people would have said “eff this” and just gone back to work. Now they are all afraid to go outside.
@#16 captain Uppa
“I am cringing at how wrong this post will be in the future.”
++++
Garth’s still going to be running this blog in 2040?
#90 april on 05.27.20 at 6:45 pm
#87 – and how long have those solds been on the market, and how much was the selling price…..?
=======================
Haven’t researched it…
I recall that first SALES go down…then PRICES…
Not seeing much RE actually ” For Sale “…
My guesstimate is of those listed “For Sale” 1/3 have SOLD signs, while my guesstimate is listings are down by at least 2/3…..likely more.
Little doubt peak prices are in the rear view mirror.
Perhaps we are now in a balanced market.
If someone has relevant/applicable Metro Van stats…please provide.
THNX
There was a picture floating around from the weekend showing someone wearing the new fashionable chin-strap face mask – I just can’t recall where I saw it or who it was.
@#37 Keith
“……with the occasional whiff of industrial slaughterhouse when the wind is right….”
+++++
Ahhh the Rendering Plant in east Van. where they boil the hides and skins of cows, Horses, etc.. Boil the bones and fat down into usable by products. Yummy.
Such fond memories in the heat of the summer when the air is still, hot, humid and the unbelievable stench of the Rendering Plant hung like a bloated corpse in a car in an Arizona parking lot at noon.
In the early 1980’s we had the window cleaning contract at the Office for the plant.
It took a bit of self discipline to walk in there due to the stench. But, amazingly , you got used to it.
We had a guy who was ALWAYS late, hung over, etc.
So one day my boss had enough.
Mid August about 10am, 30cel. zero wind…..we headed to the Rendering Plant.
The crew truck windows were up, A/C was on and our tardy pal was sitting burping and suffering last night’s effects.
Our boss said to Tardy Tim, “When I pull up I want you to go in and get us a bucket of water for the windows. The tap is downstairs in the rendering plant.”
“Tim” opened the door to the truck and recoiled, gagging, “Whats that SMELL?”
“Oh, its the factory next door.” said my boss with a small smirk,” Go get us some water!”
He winked at me as Tim went inside….
My boss stood there and started counting slowly out loud, ” Onnnnne,….. twoooooo,…. threeeeee, Fo…..”
The door flew open and Tim collapsed on his knees holding vomit in his hands, he crawled across the sidewalk to the gutter and proceeded to vomit again and again and again , retch and burping for several minutes until he finally stopped.
My boss looked at him and said, “Where’s our water?”
I loved that boss.
A question for TurnerNation, do you suppose there’s a technological reason for the keep-your-2m-distance nonsense? I’m not talking about the esoteric symbolism of which you’ve opined.
Seems it would be so much easier to pinpoint a human being from afar if that person was adequately spaced away from other people.
Perhaps that’s the inverted meaning of social distancing?
Distancing = targeting (a person in public, from a distance)
…and yet TSX was up today, pretty much back to where it was Jan 2019. Something’s gotta give.
@#61 Lost the Lease
“OK Phartzy…
Time to get out of return line-up.”
++++
Oh, so now you WANT your gift?
Coulda saved me some time in the return lineup.
#73 not 1st on 05.27.20 at 5:44 pm
Easy there.
Oil would sell if the market price were high enough full stop. Sure, lack of infrastructure puts a premium on our oil. But when you have 10% of GDP in one commodity, you are tying the economy to a boom bust sector. Doesn’t matter what leader is in office, $30 bbl crude means that 10% is faltering. The US sits on a lot of oil and until recently was the largest oil producer, but the economy is diverse enough that an oil hit can be withstood (when there isn’t a crippling pandemic in play).
The other 20% is RE and RE related stuff. So 30% of 1.7T is 500B devoted to two industries that aren’t exactly hotbeds for innovation. The world is slowly turning away from oil and Canada had better stop hoping for that to reverse and start using all the well educated who are here and the stability of the nation to work on more progressive things. I’m not saying oil will or should go away anytime soon, but it will. This is obviously a simplistic way to look at things, but i think the gist makes sense.
This is no one in particular’s fault other than failures to promote an environment that inspires investment in anything else than the above (grossly speaking — or should I say moistly?). It’s been too easy for politicians to goose the economy by goosing housing. Time to goose something else.
Thanks for the post Garth
I don’t like what you wrote, but facts are facts, groan and double groan, just when I thought we were improving
And just after I invested all into the banks ha ha
I think in the beginning we all felt the virus would end quickly, no one saw the side effects of economy being shuttered for months. And the slow phase in
I figured we would be back up to 80 percent speed by the fall. I no longer think that.
But the long lasting impacts are creating a big unknown.
I am a firm believer of the cumulative effect, much which you wrote today. Unemployed or people being paid to sit at home, now people cannot pay the rent or mortgage, and it spills into the banks.Housing crash up to 25 percent is doable I think, but beyond that might push us all over the edge, then what?
Sell stocks buy gold?
Just as a side note most US presidents start a war to distract the people when the economy sours.
And now China and Canada have the gloves off,
Very interesting times
The new normal? I have been hearing allot about repatriate,
Bring home the manufacturing back to Canada, we should be pushing all our political leaders to make everything in Canada.
Buy Canada employ Canadians.
Innovation is the key!
I went to Costco on Monday afternoon and there was virtually no line, although the maze and traffic cop was still there so I suppose there must still be lines at times.
It actually struck me as unusual that there was no line. Perhaps it was because of the time I went? But my mind wanders so I speculated maybe the panic was over, everyone had a year’s supply of toilet paper and a full pantry, but no money left in the bank account?
Meat prices are certainly up significantly but it was in stock. Plenty of milk and eggs. And toilet paper. Lots of toilet paper. Bottled water too. Why were people panic buying bottled water? I mean, it doesn’t go bad, but did they think covid was going to get into the city water supply? Or maybe the city would turn off the taps? (Survival tip: If the city does turn off the water, you can shut off the gas to your hot water tank (very important turn off the gas or power) and get water that is safe to drink from there. 40 gallons or more depending on the size of the tank. Do not turn it back on until you have properly refilled it. You probably won’t burn down your house if you do but you will wreck your tank.) You can also get water that is safe to drink from your toilet (the tank, not the bowl) but I’d save that for a flush once it gets too skank to tolerate. But if things get so bad the city can’t keep the water flowing we are in real trouble. I foresee many things, but not that.
I’ve also noticed that dental masks (not n95) and hand sanitizer is popping up in nearly every convenience store and gas station around. Expensive, but not unreasonably so and available. Caution as we head into summer: Do not leave alcohol based hand sanitizer in a hot car. A few people have already torched their car this way.
As for the economy, well Garth pretty much summed it up. I think a full recovery will take years. It’s hard to see what we’ll use all those downtown offices for in the future. Or movie theaters. Will drive-ins make a comeback? If I had most of my money in commercial real estate right now I’d be $hitting bricks. And of course I don’t think we’ve properly discussed yet what is going to happen to tax revenue at all levels of government. It is going to crater. Unemployed people don’t pay income tax, and landlords who can’t collect rent won’t be paying property tax. My guess is all those people who are deferring their mortgage payments are also going to take a miss on property taxes this year too. Then they are going to stop paying the utilities but that will be the last to go. I mean, if you are stuck at home you need your Netfix.
There is a currency devaluation coming, I am now convinced. I just don’t see how all this government spending coupled with the fact that taxes may decline 25% or more can be papered over without one. Stocks may seem expensive, but cash isn’t going to be a great asset either as inflation goes possibly to 10%. If I were me, I’d put gold back into the portfolio as opposed to cash.
And a thought on the auto industry: Sell. If Zoom becomes the new way to work, well, cars are going to last a lot longer on average because they are mostly just sitting in the garage. The industry is already super competitive. They go bankrupt almost as often as airlines and that was before Zoom and Amazon. Fiat-Chrysler isn’t going to make it. GM will mostly move to China. Plants will close and never reopen except maybe to make ventilators and masks. Many jobs simply won’t come back once the average life expectancy of a car goes to 25 years because it simply doesn’t get more than 10,000 km of use a year. Of course Amazon and SkipTheDishes drivers will still be buying cars, but at this rate I may never need to buy another one. They just sit in the garage or go to Costco and the liquor store once every 3 weeks.
#14 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.27.20 at 2:16 pm
Did you all not hear the Premier, just minutes ago, talk about the half million selfish idiots who want to keep going up to cottage country!?
Let me paraphrase:
STAY THE HELL AWAY, YOU IDIOTS!
—————————
I’ve got a better idea: Why don’t you leave? I’ll be practicing my social distancing and bringing my own food so go away if you don’t like it. I have just as much right to occupy my own property as you do. Seems to me you don’t have what it takes to live in cottage country. I suggest moving to northern Manitoba.
Besides, they are opening the playgrounds June 1st, so I don’t think me sitting on my own private deck on my own land is all that much of a threat to you.
#26 MF on 05.27.20 at 2:34 pm
#18 the Jaguar on 05.27.20 at 2:22 pm
Actually the pandemic has done the opposite, and pushed many people (me included) back to the msm.
The rest of the internet is loaded, as you say, with misinformation, conspiracy theories and other trash about elites and bill gates. No thanks I’ll take my chances on the msm with this topic.
MF
———-
Hey MF,
I completely agree with you in terms of the wildfire of misinformation and conspiracy theories.
Just make sure you apply critical thinking to the MSM as well. I can tell you first hand none of the big US news networks are 100% truthful in their reporting of everything virus. In fact, I would put it at about 50%.
The infected numbers get me the most. They don’t reflect active infections, simply everyone whom has been infected even if they have recovered. Second to that are the death numbers, where they don’t differentiate those whom have died from the virus or died with the virus. There’s a big difference. Someone who is dying can catch the virus, especially in a hospital setting, as they are even more susceptible to infection than healthy people. This is very apparent when you look at cause of death and mortality averages y / y.
The MSM earns off the same algorithm all other outlets do; eyeballs and clicks. All bow to the same incentives.
#92 Do we have all the facts on 05.27.20 at 6:51 pm
Excellent comment. If only we had some leaders in this country talking about this… politicians, editorials… anyone with a prominent voice. Instead we get “we are all in this together” as a strategy.
We’ll see how much we’re all in this together when we run out of ink to print money, and there is an ever decreasing size of a pie to divide up.
“…RBC. Our largest bank this week is setting aside almost $3 billion to cover bad loans – up inconceivably from $400 million just three months ago. Its core banking business shrank 66%.” … – Garth
And here I am today trrying to figure out how come RY share has gone up 4$ … Garth spells out the good and bad news at the same time. Is there anything else we don’t know and that might have influenced the share price so much?
#95 Ace Goodheart on 05.27.20 at 6:59 pm
Exactly.
100% spot on.
Except, it’s not just liberals.
Madness.
#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.27.20 at 7:33 pm
I can certainly relate to Tardy Tim and his experience in the rendering plant. I had a similar experience working in a fish Cannery in Prince Rupert as a teenager during summer holidays. The most god awful stench one could imagine.
So Garth I need some clarification. So your forecast, which I agree with, is basically doom and gloom and yet the markets keep on going up. So are the markets are basically a “fugazzi”? The conditions of the economy, present or future, are not looking good and yet they continue to climb. Are they climbing on the injection of liquidity by the government? If that’s the case, does capitalism really exist?
Garths bank speak is code for if interest rates wont be higher and dividends cant be cut in a era of rising defaults, then the masses will pay for it all with hidden fees and probably some Deutsche Bank style derivatives trading.
An average of 475 deaths from drug overdoses in BC this year so far, Covid 19 deaths at 162.
I guess we will keep the country shut down because the drugs are 300 times as virulent as Covid 19.
As soon as the Covid goes away not one person will care about 3 people killing themselves with drugs every single day.
#2 jay …
For a good laugh on masks ….
“Thinking a mask is going to stop the corona is like thinking your undies will stop a fart”.
Priceless …
#109 John in Mtl on 05.27.20 at 8:23 pm
“…RBC. Our largest bank this week is setting aside almost $3 billion to cover bad loans – up inconceivably from $400 million just three months ago. Its core banking business shrank 66%.” … – Garth
And here I am today trrying to figure out how come RY share has gone up 4$ … Garth spells out the good and bad news at the same time. Is there anything else we don’t know and that might have influenced the share price so much?
………………………..
The herd panicked and it was oversold. Investors see a bargain and are buying. These opportunities only happen every ten years or so.
The amount of money spent suddenly during covid on public and corporate benefit worldwide, proves that money is just printed out of thin air, it is fake debt, there are no real lenders behind it.
“Evolution’s become revolution.”
————————-
Sad indeed.
“Let’s review. Canadian households entered the Covid world with record debt. Half of us lived paycheque-to-paycheque. Unemployment is now at 1930s-levels.”
Despite all the above Justin still increased the carbon virtue signalling tax. This is a shameful disregard for the people who he is suppose to represent.
And here on beautiful Vancouver Island since the beginning of the year to May 25th. we have had all of 127 cases (less than 1 per day). 121 recovered, 5 died, 1 in hospital.
If the second wave is any worse than this were in deep trouble.
Incredible that a media giant like Torstar could be bought for $52 million, stock value down to 26 cents after years of being in the teens until the GFC.
Post Media has got to be in even worse shape, wondering what is propping them up. The National Post has been in decline since its early years.
Altogether this is disturbing for democracy as people are now flocking to self-isolated info-bubbles on the internet for “news”, believing whatever they want, and electing leaders like Trump who will spin the truth any way he wants in his own interest.
Orwellian overtones in all of this, sadly.
The climate change people certainly have not let this pandemic (planned or not) go to waste. They are trying to take this opportunity to force their agenda on Canadians. Perhaps something to keep a look out for in the near future.
https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-the-resilience-ploy-to-seize-the-economy#comments-area
good times on here tonight eh.
Carry on.
should I head up to the cabin/cottage this weekend?
Dane’s freudian slip. Luv it!
#105 Nonplused on 05.27.20 at 8:06 pm
I went to Costco on Monday afternoon and there was virtually no line, although the maze and traffic cop was still there so I suppose there must still be lines at times.
It actually struck me as unusual that there was no line. Perhaps it was because of the time I went? But my mind wanders so I speculated maybe the panic was over, everyone had a year’s supply of toilet paper and a full pantry, but no money left in the bank account?
===============================
Yep…
We used to be part of the COSTCO Cult….when it first opened and one would easily ring up a 3 digit bill..
Now its mostly on demand…as we need it…
The toilet paper hoarders probably have every sq. ft. in their condos allocated to the COVID 19 scam essentials, and will require 2+ re-incarnations to absorb the excess.
Thus..COSTCO stock price may be due for a major hit once their HOARDER CULT wakes up from the prepper fear porn overload fog.
#115 rory on 05.27.20 at 8:43 pm
#2 jay …
For a good laugh on masks ….
“Thinking a mask is going to stop the corona is like thinking your undies will stop a fart”.
Priceless …
=================
OH NooooooOOOO000ooooo000000
You’ve set up a punch line for GF resident village idiot !!
Run!!!! (but maintain socialist distancing )
The Toronto (Marxist) Star was getting 6 figures a week to stay in business all funded by Trudeau and his bandits. Now they take the funds and still sell out to a private company.
And we are supposed to feel guilty for taking the CERB.
#55 Canadian Banks on 05.27.20 at 4:21 pm
This week, some of our big banks reported an increase of loan loss provisions (LLPs) for bad debts. This is for preparation in the coming months that people are unable to pay for their mortgages.
If these loans are covered by CMHC insurance, doesn’t that mean CMHC will pay the banks for these bad loans?
Doesn’t that mean the risk is put on CMHC, not these big banks?
So buy these bank stocks now?
******************
Stamping my feet….NO NO NO! Our bankers will not foreclose and force sales because they are our mortgage friends, my realtor mother in law says soooo….so na na na na boo hoo! Everyone is just being over dramatica due to the virus.
Let’s face it, the World economy was on perfect footings prior to the pandemic. Companies and Banks were’t laying off. People were paying off their debts and only a handful of people had too much debt. Let’s get the facts straight, a flu like vaccine will be developed by October so everything will just go back to normal. Besides, I can just borrow more from my HELOC the bank increased my limit two years ago and they wouldn’t change that on me.
*Sometimes even HOPE isn’t realistic but true blissful ignorance is intoxicating until faced with evidence/reality.
#100 Alphonse Kehaulic no idea I’m not a techie but have heard that take. As a low-tech approach is it a formidable economic weapon enough holding small business to ~50% capacity.
Apparently facial rec can already distinguish with masks on anyway.
Musk – a smiling front man for the boys in charge already tipped his hand. Our unique energy signatures and DNA are already being read I am sure! Any technology we hear about is years old and perfected.
Remember Google Glasses? They sure snatched those away from us quickly (that tech was developed for battlefield use.) All tech was in fact. Why Instagram maps and knows every location and business down to the meter.
Once again don’t take my word, as them:
Elon Musk unveils Neuralink’s plans for brain-reading ‘threads …www.theverge.com › elon-musk-neuralink-brain-reading-thread-robot
Jul 16, 2019 – Elon Musk’s Neuralink, the secretive company developing brain-machine … In 2006, Nagle played Pong using only his mind; the basic movement … promising: a “high bandwidth” brain connection, implanted via robot surgery.
Elon Musk launches Neuralink, a venture to merge the human …www.theverge.com › elon-musk-neuralink-brain-computer-interface-…
Mar 27, 2017 – SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk is backing a brain-computer … of the connection between your brain and the digital version of yourself, …
Elon Musk’s mind-reading technology could be about to take a …www.zdnet.com › article › elon-musks-mind-reading-technology-coul…
Feb 6, 2020 – The tech entrepreneur announced an “awesome” update to his neurotechnology company’s work to connect brains to computers.
I was down at my local TD today for the first time since Corona. The nice lady in charge of the line up (TNLICOTLU) asked me to wait in line (2 in front of me … outside) and then asked if I have been ill lately etc. She then asked what I was there for today and with her Ipad was going to relay the info inside to “prepare the teller” for better service for me. I told her I was “here to rob the place and how long was it going to take?” The new normal?
Porter stopped flying???
=========================
hmmm this is what I don’t get about this lockdown. Porter’s owned by some loaded dude.
A significant % of loaded dudes are affected by this nutso lockdown, besides the ordinary Joe six pack. (Yes Galon Weston must be making out like a bandit, but many others in the “wrong” industries are probably are seeing a ton of net worth shaved off!!!
Why don’t this segment of the rich pressurize the government to open up. Or even prevent the lockdown in the first place. They have the power, when all is said and done.
Did I hear our Prime Minister say on tv tha, Hundreds of thousands of Canadians are now unemployed….”
Apparently the meeting with the bank presidents the other day to figure out how to “move forward” didn’t include …Canadian Unemployment numbers…..
4 million and counting?
Trudeau did suggest that businesses, “hire back those unemployed workers”……..to do what exactly?
Newsflash Mr Prime Minister,
” YOU laid everyone off……”
Funny how that Covid 1984 self isolation works.
DELETED
#116 Yukon Elvis on 05.27.20 at 8:43 pm
#109 John in Mtl on 05.27.20 at 8:23 pm
“…RBC. Our largest bank this week is setting aside almost $3 billion to cover bad loans – up inconceivably from $400 million just three months ago. Its core banking business shrank 66%.” … – Garth
And here I am today trrying to figure out how come RY share has gone up 4$ … Garth spells out the good and bad news at the same time. Is there anything else we don’t know and that might have influenced the share price so much?
………………………..
The herd panicked and it was oversold. Investors see a bargain and are buying. These opportunities only happen every ten years or so.
——————————————————————
It still has 19% to rise before getting back to its 52 wk high and it will. Still a good buy.
IBM is laying off thousands in the US.
HP and Dell is also laying off and Cisco Systems laid staff off back in February.
#83 Billion Dollar Whale on 05.27.20 at 6:18 pm
… Don’t count on the floor falling out of RE. The gov is too invested and exposed in the RE sector.
They have the tools of ending the stress test and/or increasing amorts.
**************
Ah what’s up doc!
The United States of America has a printing press and a lot more tools then Canada and they weren’t as leveraged as Canadians. Why didn’t they prevent a US Housing downturn???…
After their lock down, Chinese officials announced they expected a rapid recovery, four weeks ago> Last week they stopped measuring growth the same way prior to the pandemic. I guess they finally realized that their customer base was just still in lock down. China’s population is also in debt and housing is wobbling.
Jaguar
The media has failed us for some time. Look no further than the three year circus known as RussiaGate. A complete hoax that wasted America’s resources, distracted from the real issues of the day, and was picked up and run with like a pigskin in an amateur football game by the entire world media.
RussiaGate is a complete hoax. Mike Flynn was targeted and spied upon by the highest officials in the US Government. The Justice Department has asked the case be dropped but the judge Emmet Sullivan won’t dismiss the case. The media have published the leaks without question. What fools. RussiaGate makes WaterGate look like small beer.
Like other comments listed, today, I am curious How the Major Banks, forward guidance of excessive loan losses, and profitability declines of greater than 30% in some cases, translates to Buyers, considering these stocks, more valuable. It is a disconnect similar to the Logic, to hobble our main export, and then consider business as usual. There is no longer any rationale or fundamentals in this market,… or is it desperation.
I guess when 90% of your content is fake news people don’t read it.
The once mighty CNN is now 14th in cable channel ratings behind Investigation Discovery Channel what ever that is. People are sick of being lied to. Fox News was the highest rated cable network in 2019.
https://deadline.com/2019/12/cable-ratings-2019-list-fox-news-total-viewers-espn-18-49-demo-1202817561/
#30 IHCTD9 on 05.27.20 at 2:57 pm
#154 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.27.20 at 2:09 pm
In case anyone was wondering where those words came from. Great Texas blues song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv4B0xK8rNs
—-
Deguello is a sweet album.
“I like ’em frozen but you understand
I throw ’em in and wave ’em and I’m a brand new man, oh yeah!”
—————
Texas Blues?
4 guys playing the banjo?
Btw, is there such a thing as a bass banjo?
#125 Lost…but not leased
Well, I am still part of the prepper cult. But my theory is you slowly build up over time to a one month’s supply and then you are good when the panic hits. When the toilet paper panic hit I had one full bag of Costco toilet paper plus one of the 6 packs found within on hand, and now that the toilet paper panic is over we still haven’t got half way through it.
It never hurts to have a full pantry but let’s keep it reasonable and folks, once the panic starts it makes no sense to rush out and buy up everything. It’s too late to prep, and you are buying things on impulse you don’t need and won’t use.
#56 YEG Ambassador on 05.27.20 at 4:23 pm
The Toronto Star has been spewing post-modern neo-Marxist propaganda for years and the audience has voted with their dollars……..they are the author of their own demise.
————
What rag are post-modern neo-Nazis like you reading?
#126 Lost…but not leased on 05.27.20 at 9:34 pm
#115 rory on 05.27.20 at 8:43 pm
#2 jay …
For a good laugh on masks ….
“Thinking a mask is going to stop the corona is like thinking your undies will stop a fart”.
Priceless …
=================
OH NooooooOOOO000ooooo000000
You’ve set up a punch line for GF resident village idiot !!
Run!!!! (but maintain socialist distancing )
****************
Forget about socialism, let’s talk about free enterprise corruption and the logic flowing from the BC Lottery Corps lawyer. His logic warranted a witness to laugh at him. Can’t make this twisted logic up. Who allowed this to happen?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/cullen-commission-money-laundering-bc-tuesday-1.5585890
#115 rory on 05.27.20 at 8:43 pm
#2 jay …
For a good laugh on masks ….
“Thinking a mask is going to stop the corona is like thinking your undies will stop a fart”.
Priceless …
—————————-
The covid virus is considerably larger than a methane molecule (like, to scale, way larger, like comparing the earth to the sun, even though they are both tiny) and the virus usually hitches a ride on water droplets which are way larger again. I don’t know if you sorts just have no scientific background at all or just like to scoff at everything but that wasn’t a useful comment and did not represent informed thought. Masks work, and have always worked, which is why they have always been found in surgery rooms and dentist’s offices.
Oh and there are masks that will filter out a fart. I have one, used for painting. There are a lot of noxious chemicals in some types of paint, but they don’t get through this one. When I am wearing this mask (it looks a little like a colorful WW2 gas mask) my biggest fear is that I will create an explosive environment before I am aware of it because I can’t smell anything. It works that good. I bet it would work for covid too but it is a bit cumbersome to wear to Costco.
PS the weird thing about putting on a full painting mask with the carbon cartridges and all that for the first time is realizing what air that has no smell smells like. It doesn’t smell like anything, but that is the weird part. Almost all air smells like something. It is sort of like when the planes stopped flying over my house. It is the lack of noise you notice. Same with a good vapor mask. Suddenly the lilacs don’t smell pretty. They don’t even smell at all. You can get them at Home Depot if you want to try it. You need to get the canister style with the valves.
Watching the useless masking, the distancing, the lineups, the terrified zombies, the millions permanently unemployed while the market zooms up at the same time – it’s like living inside a bad acid trip. Orange Sunshine or Yellow Submarine. We’re all in MacArthur Park now.
” MacArthur Park is melting in the dark,
All the sweet green icing flowing down.
Someone left the cake out in the rain
I don’t think that I can take it,
Cuz it took so long to make it.
And I’ll never have that recipe again.
Oh nooooo!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV1oafB3grM
Haunting refrain. Beautiful lady. RIP Donna Summer. RIP to our economic cake and our western civilization which took centuries to bake. Trust me, you won’t like the new recipe. I’m gagging on the batter already. Wait till they pop it into the oven.
#14 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.27.20 at 2:16 pm
Let me paraphrase:
STAY THE HELL AWAY, YOU IDIOTS!”
Why do I hear banjoes playing whenever I see a post of yours
#99 crowdedelevatorfartz
Ahhh the Rendering Plant in east Van.
___________________________________________
You have to know the heart of the East end of VCR and the plant to really get what Crowdedelvatorfartz is referring too, but oh so true a description he has provided. The smell from a different era perhaps…. what a great story to go with though…. oh and where is our water? lol
Hello Garth!
I’m dealing with an estate property. It’s assessed value of $463.000 in 2019. We have it listed through a real estate firm for $498.000. After two weeks only 4 showings and seems like the interest just is not there even with feature advertising. The agent said they don’t get houses like this often. It’s a large bungalow, built 1988 and is dated. Any advise would be nice.
Canadians Banks were heavily short sold. At one time last month BNS Had the tenth largest short position on the TSX. So big moves while the shorts tried to cover.
Second point as mentioned above banks were oversold and did not recover with the market.
Perfect storm for a huge run up Hopefully will continue till the short sellers get back their breath
Good trading I am all in on bank ETFs paying 5 to 7 percent, paid monthly Sounds good to me.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/renters-gaining-upper-hand-with-incentives-shrinking-rents-in-metro-vancouver-1.4958005
Things do change after all. No doubt the flood of Air BNB listings.
Just last year an acquaintance speeched me on the merits of buying a really nice second house just to AirBNB it out and pay the mortgage off. It’s a no brainer in any location of back water BC.?
[email protected]
His wife is a former realtor and her realtor friends all have multiple Investment properties don’t cha know.
#76 – do you know the history of the listing/s on that house. Realtors are known to list at a lower price to start bidding wars.
I think that it’s safe to post now that Covid 19 was the biggest non event in modern history.
People will say social distantsing saved lives. That’s likely true if you stayed away from people over 65 with poor health or a compromised immune system. For the rest of us 99% it was a mild to brutal flu.
Never have world governments walked in goose step before. The media gave minute by minute reporting of statistics and advice that changed weekly and had nothing to do with Joe average who just wanted to go to work.
How soft we have become where people were not even interested in asking who turned out the lights on the economy.
I don’t share the opinion of doom and gloom. I won’t argue what will happen but instead say that if you want a brighter future you need to get out there and make it happen. Doom and gloom is for the victims and you’d be well served to ignore those who don’t think we can make things better despite what a group of well intentioned politicians did to lock us up.
DELETE DEBT…NOW!
The time for making new loans is OVER!!
There is going to be a serious recession in Canada that will be worse than the US because the oil and gas sector is a larger portion of the economy than in the US. The real estate sector will do badly because the bubble was so big. I was thinking that most every economic sector in Canada will have reduced demand other than government. Even governments will probably be forced to lay people off too. The one bright spot is for stock and option traders who can go long and short and are trading in the US. The stock markets with the S&P over 3000 and Dow over 25000 may be ready for a breather as they have been rocketing upward since Maech 23rd.
House taxes just went up 22% starting July….. that didn’t take long.. thx spendshi!
Another great post – but disagree on a couple points:
– Shopping will still reign at the ground level. People need to get out of the house and integrate. We are human and still crave interaction. Also, who doesn’t still like to pick out what they buy? I think the speciality malls will still do very well with tenants such as Walmart, Loblaws etc.
– RE is now so enamored and ingrained in this country the only way for a meaningful correction is for policy change. They must increase the down payment to 10% at a minimum for a start.
There is far too much influence and advertising from the likes of re max etc. An entire generation is now programed to believe the only way to achieve long term wealth is to buy real estate. The latest market prop? All of Hong Kong now wants to move to Canada.
Policy change is the only way to save us from ourselves. When the head of CMHC speaks you should listen. Just because interest rates are low doesn’t mean it’s free money. I don’t think we’ll learn unless its forced upon us. This country needs parenting.
Shame on Jim Pattison.
https://www.richmond-news.com/union-in-shock-as-save-on-foods-ends-pandemic-pay-boost-for-workers-1.24142017
#155 rory on 05.27.20 at 8:43 pm
For a good laugh on masks ….
“Thinking a mask is going to stop the corona is like thinking your undies will stop a fart”.
Priceless …
——————————————–
Fortunately, your undies WILL stop a shart. Coronavirus is much more like a shart than a fart.
DELETED
#116 Yukon Elvis on 05.27.20 at 8:43 pm
#109 John in Mtl on 05.27.20 at 8:23 pm
Thanks, Yukon Elvis. Bought at the march low and am tempted to sell at the moment. Had originally bought with the intention of holding for at least 5 yrs. Am anticipating another major low in the markets so “sell high, repurchase low”.
@ #48
You’re correct about LLPs not being a whim, however they don’t need rigorous reviews nor models…all they need do is keep up with government spending. That will scare the crap out of any lender.
#130 Well now … on 05.27.20 at 9:50 pm sez:
“I was down at my local TD today for the first time since Corona. The nice lady in charge of the line up (TNLICOTLU) asked me to wait in line (2 in front of me … outside) and then asked if I have been ill lately etc. She then asked what I was there for today and with her Ipad was going to relay the info inside to “prepare the teller” for better service for me. I told her I was “here to rob the place and how long was it going to take?” The new normal?”
——————————————-
TNLICOTLU? Isn’t that the all powerful Aztec god they used to sacrifice children to in order to gain his favour?
What did you sacrifice to gain the favour of TNLICOTLU?
Windsor-Essex Covid update:
New cases-4
New deaths- 0.
No deaths in the last 14 days.
Yet the lockdowns continue.
They are making a lot of money selling Trump 2020 face masks in the USA-another guy is selling face masks in the shape of a bat. I like how quickly the small time USA biz guys can jump on anything.
@#158 Ponzie Prattle
“Shame on Jim Pattison…”
++++
Covid 1984 infection rate dropping fast. Check
Covid 1984 death rate dropping fast. Check
Experts patting themselves on the back. Check
Summer season( not flu season) approaches. Check
Grocery clerks working as unemployed get CERB. Check
Generous employer “danger” pay not required. Check
Save-on-Foods doors stay open for profit. Check
Unions receiving thousands in cash for dues. Check
What am I missing here Ponzie?
Your sarcasm perhaps?
Well, speaking as a pilot, I’m neither concerned nor consider myself a big shot.
Of course the industry is devastated – massive capital costs, razor-thin margins, and zero revenue. Duh. But I wouldn’t generalize too heavily. The industry is dormant – not dead. Some individuals and companies will be just fine, some will disappear from the industry for good, most in between. Such as it ever was. The swings are just more extreme and accelerated now, like everything else.
Not all the airlines that should fail, will. Some have actually perversely benefitted from the crisis, receiving Covid-19 government aid where even prior to the crisis they were circling the bowl. Alitalia is a prime example, Norwegian another. I actually welcome the “creative destruction”, would way rather return to an industry with fewer, but healthier airlines.
The opportunities for flying work are still there for the experienced and mobile. I turned down a lucrative cargo gig out of the UAE as I’ve kind of grown fond of a good nights sleep on this retirement test drive. I’m fortunate to not need the money, to get there I actually planned ahead. Of course I didn’t know a global pandemic was coming, but I also didn’t assume life is just an unbroken stream of rainbows and unicorns. If the right job comes along next year I’ll have a look. I actually like my work and with 3 of 4 grandparents living to be centenarians I’m too young to not get bored in the next 50+ years. But I’m in no hurry to go back.
And many of the jobs will return. For all of Garth’s apocalyptic prose, there is a massive amount of pent-up demand for all things normal. And that’s WITHOUT a vaccine or effective treatment. Imagine if they figure one out. I heard all the same rhetoric after 9/11. The threat of terrorism never diminished one bit, just people’s fear of it did. Off they went. People are stupid. Our saving grace.
Timing is everything in life. Even in a highly-affected industry like aviation there are big variances between those with a plan and the ill-prepared. I do feel for those just starting out in the industry, it is a tough, tough time for them to be sure. No job, no experience and usually, massive training debt.
The future, as always, belongs to the resilient and the adaptable.
It is human nature to identify with points of view that are similar to their own point of view. Successful advertising targets audiences with specific points of view or audiences whose points of view might be influenced.
The Covid 19 “pandemic” was based on our very strong fear of dying and the advertising revenues attached to the “pandemic” meant that factual information about the mortality of Covid 19 that might alleviate our fear of dying became counter productive to the generation of additional advertising revenue.
I know this sounds cynical but how else can you explain the reluctance of advertising based media to present actual facts about the mortality associated with Covid 19 around the world. You would think that information that alleviated the fear of dying from Covid 19 within the general population would be front page news. Instead the media remained focussed on the increasing number of daily infections and the possibility of a second wave if we do not continue protective measures.
All viral infections are contagious and each year hundreds of thousands of people around the world die from viral infections. This year our primary sources of information took advantage of our strong fear of death and developed strategies to play into this fear and to increase advertising revenues.
As the initial buzz about Covid 19 became a roar political leaders around the world initiated serious measures to control spread of the Covid 19 virus. Now that the Canadian economy has been crippled no one dares to admit that the risk of death from Covid 19 virus within the general population is much lower than originally predicted.
Who is brave enough to publicly acknowledge that the sacrifices made might have been unnecessary or could have been reduced if accurate information had been made available sooner. Better to cling to a narrative where the sacrifices made around the world saved millions of lives.
The Worldwide web has become awash with “ skip this ad” or “this article or video will appear after this ad” or “to access this article of video please subscribe to this site”. As a result information that does not support an increase in advertising revenue receives little attention.
This is the world we live in and whether we like it or not we might have to admit that George Orwell was clairvoyant.
Big brother is not only watching but has influenced our ability to reason.
#114 Fused on 05.27.20 at 8:43 pm
I guess we will keep the country shut down because the drugs are 300 times as virulent as Covid 19.
———————————-
Not even an apples to oranges comparison. More like daisies to dalmatians.
@#156 mayor Spendshi
“House taxes just went up 22% starting July….. that didn’t take long.. thx spendshi!”
++++
Obviously Calgary had run out of rainbow paint for the crosswalks and needed more tax payer money to fund these necessary items.
It’s the “important” things that drive a municipal, provincial and federal budget.
I wonder who will pay the salary or the staff that set up the road barriers, policing and clean up for this years Pride Parade in Vancouver now that the city’s police and garbage collection budgets have been cut to the bone.
But wait!
Global 6pm tv announced that the City of Van has hired a new pr hack ( during a hiring freeze) for $95,000.00 per year to “promote the city”.
The same Van city that wailed for emergency funding a mere 2 weeks after the Covid 19 Lockdown started,”
We’re broke!”
Decades of billion dollar development fees and taxes and 2 weeks into a shutdown….they …..have …..no ….. money.
Priorities.
When does CERB end? I’m not on it, I’d like to know so i get ready for the economic collapse
131 Hawk on 05.27.20 at 9:53 pm
Porter stopped flying???
=========================
hmmm this is what I don’t get about this lockdown. Porter’s owned by some loaded dude.
A significant % of loaded dudes are affected by this nutso lockdown, besides the ordinary Joe six pack. (Yes Galon Weston must be making out like a bandit, but many others in the “wrong” industries are probably are seeing a ton of net worth shaved off!!!
Why don’t this segment of the rich pressurize the government to open up. Or even prevent the lockdown in the first place. They have the power, when all is said and done.
———————————–
Elon Musk now lives in the US.
And he is now into space rocket flight, not just aircraft.
#141 Nonplused on 05.27.20 at 11:25 pm
#125 Lost…but not leased
Well, I am still part of the prepper cult. But my theory is you slowly build up over time to a one month’s supply and then you are good when the panic hits. When the toilet paper panic hit I had one full bag of Costco toilet paper plus one of the 6 packs found within on hand, and now that the toilet paper panic is over we still haven’t got half way through it.
It never hurts to have a full pantry but let’s keep it reasonable and folks, once the panic starts it makes no sense to rush out and buy up everything. It’s too late to prep, and you are buying things on impulse you don’t need and won’t use.
—————–
Self-sufficiency is good. Knowledge and capability are far more important than stockpiles of stuff.
I really like the exchange with the old dude in post-apocalyptic movie ‘the Postman’:
Old George : [while talking with the Postman] I was an aerospace engineer. I helped design the Galileo space station. I dream it’s orbiting Earth forever, with a dozen human skeletons all grinning at each other. Laughing at us down here.
The Postman : Can you ride?
Old George : No, can’t walk too good either.
The Postman : So why are you here?
Old George : I know stuff.
The new security law in Hong Kong will very likely result in another capital exodus, Canadian real estate will be popular destination
One more thing this virus has proved.
Capitalism is kaput.
Hi Garth, one thing to point out and remember when talking about condo being a hot bed for covid – while optically one might believe that, but, looking at the stats for Toronto for cases, all the “hotbeds” as cbc calls the (100-200) are outside of the old city. So none of them are downtown. its not the condos that are propagating the virus, its the low income folks, who have jobs where they can’t wfh. This is also true in NYC – Manhattan was mostly spared. I know ppl’s perception of this may be skewed, but thats what the data is revealing.
#163 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.28.20 at 7:15 am
#130 Well now … on 05.27.20 at 9:50 pm sez:
“I was down at my local TD today for the first time since Corona. The nice lady in charge of the line up (TNLICOTLU) asked me to wait in line (2 in front of me … outside) and then asked if I have been ill lately etc. She then asked what I was there for today and with her Ipad was going to relay the info inside to “prepare the teller” for better service for me. I told her I was “here to rob the place and how long was it going to take?” The new normal?”
—————–
TNLICOTLU? Isn’t that the all powerful Aztec god they used to sacrifice children to in order to gain his favour?
What did you sacrifice to gain the favour of TNLICOTLU?
——————-
Free will, clearly. Along with an offering of cash.
#109 John in Mtl on 05.27.20 at 8:23 pm
Maybe the surprise as reason for it going up (rather than having been down) is that they earned 3B in the first place to set aside. They made the hay and put it in the barn. Ie they did the right thing as evidenced by the market response.
massive money printing will keep this all afloat
#77 Baloney Sandwich
When that happens, people start repairing their net worth (balance sheets) by paying down debt or increasing savings, which is basically the same thing. That’s the right thing to do at the micro level: everyone in that situation has to get their financial house in order. But when everybody does it all at the same time, it hurts the economy by lowering consumption. Its vicious downward cycle.
——————————————————————–
It’s known as the Paradox of Thrift.
Saving and investing is the best. But only if I’m the only one doing it. Everyone ELSE’s consumption and debt is what benefits ME and MY SAVINGS and MY INVESTMENTS.
If other people stop indebting themselves and stop buying crap, it doesn’t help the companies that I own.
Funny how that works, eh?
What day is it today, by the way?
#140 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.27.20 at 11:03 pm
#30 IHCTD9 on 05.27.20 at 2:57 pm
#154 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.27.20 at 2:09 pm
In case anyone was wondering where those words came from. Great Texas blues song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv4B0xK8rNs
—-
Deguello is a sweet album.
“I like ’em frozen but you understand
I throw ’em in and wave ’em and I’m a brand new man, oh yeah!”
—————
Texas Blues?
4 guys playing the banjo?
Btw, is there such a thing as a bass banjo?
—-
Only 3 guys in ZZ Top Ponzie, two with epic beards. Big band back in the 80’s.
Yes, I do believe there are bass banjo’s out there.
#145 Nonplused
You need to get the canister style with the valves.
——————————————————————–
Not to mention, they make a fabulous fashion statement!
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.funidelia.ca%2Fnuclear-gas-mask-34616.html&psig=AOvVaw1oA_XgS3enBZWZLZgTsPg9&ust=1590757965104000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAIQjRxqFwoTCPiE0rPR1ukCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAD
#139 BS on 05.27.20 at 10:46 pm
The country’s biggest newspaper – in fact a company with real estate, presses, 4,000 employees, half-a-dozen dailies and 70 weeklies – just sold for pennies. Plunging revenues, crippling debt, social media carnivores and social distancing have finished off Torstar. Dead. Kaput.
I guess when 90% of your content is fake news people don’t read it.
The once mighty CNN is now 14th in cable channel ratings behind Investigation Discovery Channel what ever that is. People are sick of being lied to. Fox News was the highest rated cable network in 2019.
Fox News was the top-rated basic cable network among total viewers for a fourth year in a row
https://deadline.com/2019/12/cable-ratings-2019-list-fox-news-total-viewers-espn-18-49-demo-1202817561/
—
Then there is the CBC which can print any garbage they like, because they get paid even if no one is reading their fear mongering tripe.
Last time I popped on there, they were featuring a picture of an excavator in a cemetery digging graves for Covid victims.
What a tabloid…
Bezos is more than a king. He’s one of the anointed “masters of the universe” alongside Gates, Zuckerberg,
Larry Page, Sergey Brin, the ‘scientific’ elite and their political puppets, and the academicians. These are the technocrats who have taken the ‘human’ out of humanity. They want to remake us in their own image. As all gods do. Soulless, cold, cold automatons.
No weddings, funerals, baby showers, birthday parties, graduations. Locked out of the nursing homes and hospitals. Denied the right of communal joy or grief or to express words of comfort while holding the hand of a suffering loved one. All in the name of the common good.
That’s the really sadistic part, isn’t it? Telling us it’s all for our own good while these emotionless rejects jet off in private planes to mega yachts or private islands. Loving every minute of the economic destruction and the great profit it brings them. But it’s their power over us they really get off on. Money’s just a game they play.
News bulletin for the masters of the universe – With your enormous power and wealth you could have chosen to benefit humanity by furthering knowledge, truth and freedom.
Instead you choose to censor and deceive. To enslave. You crush your competition and swallow them whole via enormous debt granted only to the likes of you. You set up phony philanthropic foundations to evade taxes and stoke your all consuming egos.
You’re not masters of the universe by any intelligent metric. You’re not even criminal masterminds. Criminal masterminds would be a step up. You’re low IQ liars and thieves. And if you didn’t start out this way – it’s what you’ve become. Cyber Satans.
“American billionaires got $434 billion richer during the pandemic”
“Bezos added $34.6 billion to his wealth and Zuckerberg picked up $25 billion.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/american-billionaires-got-434-billion-richer-during-the-pandemic.html
“We forecast a prolonged downtrend of lower highs for the reaming months in 2020 and a further decline in 2021. Ultimately the condo market will test a threshold which hasn’t been seen since 2016. Signalling that 5 years of investment will have netted an investor zero increase of equity.
“The 2015 investor with a zero equity increase will be the envy of all those who invested during the market frenzy of 2017-2018. Every Condo purchased during these times will technically be under water in the upcoming years.
__________________________________________
High density living and being sequestered in these high rise strata urban cubicals is not appealing at all. I really don’t see it changing in the future with the current situation. My father is in the medical field and he said this is simply the beginning of the pandemics. Covid-19 isn’t even over and we do not as of yet have a vaccine. My parents once thought of downsizing to a Condo here in the city but my father thought what is rational of sitting 20 floors up in the sky when he wants to walk outside and take a five minute walk in the park when it will take him 8 minutes just to get out the door of a condo. He also once rented a condo when he was assigned to another hospital and said the noise and smells in the building were insane and sitting on the balcony when your up in the sky you hear everything on the street as it is amplified. Now they are thinking of a small bungalow town-home outside the GTA.
#19 the Jaguar on 05.27.20 at 2:22 pm
“ ‘the end of egalitarianism’. Here’s the definition to save the mutts on the blog unfamiliar with the reference -” the principle that all people are equal and deserve equal rights and opportunities.”. In short, it isn’t just the economy that is being turned back in time to the ‘dirty thirties’. It also the gap between those who have and those who don’t.”
————————————————
Interesting observation, I will keep an eye on this.
I have been getting worried that “Private Equity” will become the norm they by keeping “Mutts” like me sidelines to Public Markets.
Honestly the Capital markets are the only place where I feel free to fully participate anymore, my money can be invested all over the world…but I am forced to live and consume in “Little North Korea”, Canuckistan.
The MSM is horrible tripe and Infantile, no wonder we are all over the Internet.
#84 Yukon Elvis
You called it!
Ming stalled…perhaps until after the US election? :-)
But meanwhile…NO PPE for Canada!
#14 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.27.20 at 2:16 pm
Did you all not hear the Premier, just minutes ago, talk about the half million selfish idiots who want to keep going up to cottage country!?
Let me paraphrase:
STAY THE HELL AWAY, YOU IDIOTS!
*****************************
So many people want to enjoy the Blue Mountains in summer. Get away from the COVID infested city of Toronto.
Escape to cottage country :)
#168 Do we have all the facts on 05.28.20 at 8:32 am
The Covid 19 “pandemic” was based on our very strong fear of dying
—————
When the Waorani tribe in the Amazon saw their first helicopter, the warriors immediately went for a ride. Fear? Ha!
Irrational fear of dying is a flaw. It has little place in adulthood.
64 IHCTD9 on 05.27.20 at 4:55 pm
My reading comprehension is fine.
I just can see beyond the surface layers of your posts related to this topic:
Immigrants don’t want to come here – false
Chinese immigrants are better at home -false
People from other countries gives two poops about taxes and debt – false
Citizenship rates are irrelevant.
The deeper meaning of your posts on this topic is all political. You are basically cherry-picking citizenship stats, using the immigration card as cover, and actually critiquing a temporary politician’s policies. That is the root of your posts on this topic, I think it’s disingenuous, and beneath a poster of your caliber.
MF
#183 Sky on 05.28.20 at 9:18 am
Bezos is more than a king. He’s one of the anointed “masters of the universe” alongside Gates, Zuckerberg,
Larry Page, Sergey Brin, the ‘scientific’ elite and their political puppets, and the academicians. These are the technocrats who have taken the ‘human’ out of humanity. They want to remake us in their own image. As all gods do. Soulless, cold, cold automatons.
Telling us it’s all for our own good while these emotionless rejects jet off in private planes to mega yachts or private islands. Loving every minute of the economic destruction and the great profit it brings them. But it’s their power over us they really get off on. Money’s just a game they play.
News bulletin for the masters of the universe – With your enormous power and wealth you could have chosen to benefit humanity by furthering knowledge, truth and freedom.
Instead you choose to censor and deceive. To enslave. You crush your competition and swallow them whole via enormous debt granted only to the likes of you. You set up phony philanthropic foundations to evade taxes and stoke your all consuming egos.
You’re not masters of the universe by any intelligent metric. You’re not even criminal masterminds. Criminal masterminds would be a step up. You’re low IQ liars and thieves. And if you didn’t start out this way – it’s what you’ve become. Cyber Satans.
—————–
Envy… sigh… so transparent
The old green monster
#107 T on 05.27.20 at 8:20 pm
Thanks T.
I also agree completely. All news outlets need to be interpreted critically. Nothing is absolutely truthful because all topics have multiple viewpoints.
The financial post, as an example, is more right leaning than the CBC. You can see it with the financial information that is reported most clearly.
Like investment diversification, news diversification is important in shaping a view too. I just think that radical views on any subject need to be filtered out. They are dangerous and contain the most bias. The msm is better at doing that filtering than alternative sources.
MF
Here’s what the head of CMHC has to say…
https://twitter.com/ewsiddall/status/1265851876379185152
https://twitter.com/ewsiddall/status/1265851878518243329
Quite the quote from Evan Siddall:
“Please question the motivation of anyone who wants you to believe prices will go up (yes, up) with our economy in slow motion, oil being given away, millions of Canadians on income support and a greater % of mortgages not being paid than we’ve seen since the Great Depression.”
#157 JWD on 05.28.20 at 2:51 am
………There is far too much influence and advertising from the likes of re max etc. An entire generation is now programed to believe the only way to achieve long term wealth is to buy real estate. The latest market prop? All of Hong Kong now wants to move to Canada.
Policy change is the only way to save us from ourselves. When the head of CMHC speaks you should listen. Just because interest rates are low doesn’t mean it’s free money. I don’t think we’ll learn unless its forced upon us. This country needs parenting………
__________________________
Truer words never spoken. The at large public is so terribly easy to manipulate. It’s so easy for large, well funded, well organized groups to assert control and lead large swaths of the population in any direction they want, kind of like the carrot and the donkey analogy. RE in Canada is one the greatest examples of this as it’s now a significant line item in our GDP output, which is quite laughable as buying/selling RE produces nothing! Climate Change will soon be a line item in Canada’s GDP too.
#139 BS on 05.27.20 at 10:46 pm
The country’s biggest newspaper – in fact a company with real estate, presses, 4,000 employees, half-a-dozen dailies and 70 weeklies – just sold for pennies. Plunging revenues, crippling debt, social media carnivores and social distancing have finished off Torstar. Dead. Kaput.
I guess when 90% of your content is fake news people don’t read it.
The once mighty CNN is now 14th in cable channel ratings behind Investigation Discovery Channel what ever that is. People are sick of being lied to. Fox News was the highest rated cable network in 2019.
Fox News was the top-rated basic cable network among total viewers for a fourth year in a row
https://deadline.com/2019/12/cable-ratings-2019-list-fox-news-total-viewers-espn-18-49-demo-1202817561/
……..
Therein lies the major problem for the USA!
Garth told us so.
BC and ON in lockstep extend ‘state of emergency’ for another 2 weeks. Nothing to see here folks in this co-ordindated economic destruction.
As I’ve been saying there is a timeline in which other stuff must be put into place. The New System.
USA is getting strategic, media-induced riots. This is what they want.
#149 Randy on 05.28.20 at 12:07 am
Hello Garth!
I’m dealing with an estate property. It’s assessed value of $463.000 in 2019. We have it listed through a real estate firm for $498.000. After two weeks only 4 showings and seems like the interest just is not there even with feature advertising. The agent said they don’t get houses like this often. It’s a large bungalow, built 1988 and is dated. Any advise would be nice.
—————————————————————–
The worst time to get greedy on price is when the country is in a recession and unemployment probably reaching 30%. Lower the price by 20,000 below assessed and if you get an offer close to that, grab it. Otherwise, you could end up holding it for several years and become a reluctant landlord. And that is something you don’t want to become right now. So, lower the price and unload that albatross. I know someone in same situation in Okanagan. Close to a year and still not sold and not realizing how bad things are going to get.
#153 Tron
Well said.
Garth,
Nice picture… shows that most Canadians are little more than sheep.
Too bad masks don’t work…
see this Ontario research paper: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340570735_Masks_Don't_Work_A_review_of_science_relevant_to_COVID-19_social_policy
Hey Ponziua Pilates :#42: Godwins Law. You lose. You can be ignored now.
Best editorial on this topic I have read yet by Don Martin:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-china-dials-the-wrong-number-in-calling-for-meng-s-immediate-release-1.4958680
It is perfectly clear that Canada needs to ban Huawei from our 5G and join NZ, Austraiia and the US (and now possibly the UK who are backing off..). Moreover, Canadian universities should not continue taking any $$ from this source. It is perfectly clear that we need social distance from China going forward, and the polls reflect this view:
http://angusreid.org/covid19-china/
Truer words never spoken. The at large public is so terribly easy to manipulate. It’s so easy for large, well funded, well organized groups to assert control and lead large swaths of the population in any direction they want, kind of like the carrot and the donkey analogy. RE in Canada is one the greatest examples of this as it’s now a significant line item in our GDP output, which is quite laughable as buying/selling RE produces nothing! Climate Change will soon be a line item in Canada’s GDP too.
——————-
So True.
I buy a house, sell it for more money. Six months later that buyer sells it to someone else for more money. etc. etc.
It seems that this “process” is the only way Canada is making money. How on earth can this sustain our economy? It’s just trading dollars and hard to believe it can keep going. There’s really no wealth being created just speculation run a mock.
It seems that REMAX is desperately trying to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic hoping to avoid the inevitable.
The greedy short sighted never know when to sell. They always buy high and sell low. I posted here in late 2016 the greatest fools of all will be buying in late 2017. I posted then a time will come soon after when those who will hang in past the point of no return will languish in denial under the delusion a price drop doesn’t happen to them. This can’t happen to people like me they will say. This can’t happen to me. Not to me they will say……. So I said.
How did Canada ever get roped into the fight for control over 5G distribution. Three Chinese firms, three American firms, one South Korean firm, one Swedish firm and one Finnish firm. We have no horse in this race for control and the billions of dollars it will generate but somehow we got caught in the crossfire.
The obvious way we could have avoided the possibility of control of our airways by a Chinese firm would have been to get involved as a competitive supplier of 5G. What do Sweden and Finland have that Canada could not achieve?
Time to focus on the real crisis!!
#204 Do we have all the facts on 05.28.20 at 2:48 pm
How did Canada ever get roped into the fight for control over 5G distribution.
What do Sweden and Finland have that Canada could not achieve?
************************************
More intelligent voters? Just a WAG.
I read a report today about the unemployment rates of countries due to Covid19. India and USA were the worst at around 25%, Canada was 3rd at 15%, and the majority (Belgium, S.Korea, even Spain!) were around or under 2%. That blows my mind.
#204 “What do Sweden and Finland have that Canada could not achieve?”
Sweden and Finland have leaders with good brains.
#201 yvr_lurker on 05.28.20 at 1:24 pm
Best editorial on this topic I have read yet by Don Martin:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-china-dials-the-wrong-number-in-calling-for-meng-s-immediate-release-1.4958680
It is perfectly clear that Canada needs to ban Huawei from our 5G and join NZ, Austraiia and the US (and now possibly the UK who are backing off..). Moreover, Canadian universities should not continue taking any $$ from this source. It is perfectly clear that we need social distance from China going forward, and the polls reflect this view:
http://angusreid.org/covid19-china/
___________________________________________
We have effectively banned them from our company due to the nature of our business and our client contacts. All of our staff have been instructed to not deal with any Huawei products and all of our staff have company paid iPhone’s. They in fact have been instructed that they are NOT TO EVER BRING A personal Huawei PHONE into the company. It must be left at home or in their car. Our founding CEO was an ex-Nortel Lead Engineer and he knew what they did to Nortel from the inside with intellectual property spy’s. That my friend is the way the Chinese climbed to the telecom mount so fast.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/ambs-treasury-faq
McAdams: “Do you anticipate holding these investments through the life of the purchased bond or do you anticipate selling them at a date TBD [to be determined]?
Quarles: “Our intention is to buy and hold.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/
January 5, 2009……….>11 years later with $1.86 trillion on the Fed’s balance sheet in Mortgage-Backed Securities.
Fed’s Powell Tells Reporters Fed Has Only “Lending Powers” – So How Does It Own $5.5 Trillion of Securities?
money button
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019/11/these-are-the-banks-that-own-the-new-york-fed-and-its-money-button/
The audit by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the nonpartisan watchdog for Congress, shows that during the last financial crisis Morgan Stanley was paid fees of $108,400,327 for “investment banking advisory services” on the AIG revolving credit facility. Morgan Stanley was also the second largest recipient of bailout funds from the Fed, receiving $2.04 trillion
In Last Bailout, the Fed Outsourced Management to the Banks Being Bailed Out – then Paid them Huge Fees for their Work
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/05/in-last-bailout-the-fed-outsourced-management-to-the-banks-being-bailed-out-then-paid-them-huge-fees-for-their-work/
=======
THE HAGUE, NETHERLANDS — Dutch authorities on Thursday announced a nationwide ban on the transport of mink after mink farm workers were believed to have contracted coronavirus from the small mammals.
The infections in the south of the Netherlands could be the “first known cases of animal-to-human transmission”, the World Health Organization had said on Tuesday.
zuckerberg criticized the “dangerous” trend of opposition to free speech inside Western democracies, saying that too many people had come to believe that their “political objectives” were so important as to justify the suppression of their opponents’ opinions.
========
hey investors!
meanwhile :
Rudy Giuliani Is Looking for $10 Million to Finance a Ukraine-Biden Film
Giuliani and two associates—a Republican fundraiser and a California cannabis entrepreneur—have been trying to round up $10 million to finance the production of a Biden-Ukraine documentary that can be released this year. Documents obtained by Mother Jones ….
Yahoo News reported on this effort in February, noting that the project was being led at that time by veteran California Republican fixer and fundraiser Tim Yale and that preliminary footage for the film included actors portraying Ukrainian officials and Hunter Biden. The documents obtained by Mother Jones reveal new details about this venture and its financing.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/05/rudy-giuliani-is-looking-for-10-million-to-finance-a-ukraine-biden-film/
So happy to live in a country where sanity prevails. Maybe when China punts us out maybe some rational behavior will have returned to the west. There hasn’t been much for some years now. Lessons learned?