Bad dog

There was panic in the PR department over at Re/Max and Royal LePage last week. They might even had a picture of bad dog Evan Siddall on the wall, with a few bullet holes in it. (Okay, dart punctures, maybe.)

Used to be that the fed agency, CMHC, was just a big squishy, real estate-friendly fluffy media puppy for the major property floggers. For decades the people running it were industry veterans who saw their job as promoting housing. But no more. Mongrel Evan ended it all.

“Homeownership is like blood pressure,” he famously told MPs. “You can have too much of it.”

Yikes. Now everything changed. Says Re/Max spokesguy Chris Alexander: “A statement of this nature is panic-inducing and irresponsible.” In fact the company rushed out one of its famous ‘reports’ this week seeking to prove CMHC is full of fascists, malcontents, anarchists and yellow vesters who can no longer be trusted to make credible statements or forecasts. Like Re/Max.

What did Siddall do to inflame the realtors so?

He stated the obvious. We’re in a pandemic which is carving 30% from the economy, has swelled the jobless rate to 30%, put eight million people on the dole and could take a few years (if ever) to forget. Unemployed people living on pogey and unable to make rent or mortgage payments don’t buy houses, he said. Thus, there will be consequences. And he listed these:

  • Household debt, now at 99% of the economy, will swell to 130%  – enough to torpedo growth and job creation.
  • Property values across the country could drop by up to 18%.
  • A ‘deferral cliff’ is coming in September when mortgage payments have to resume and yet joblessness is still rampant, This is serious because…
  • …by September 20% of all mortgage households will not be able (or willing) to pay their home loans.

So the CMHC boss indicated he’d be suggesting to the Trudeau gang that the minimum down payment be doubled to 10% and other lending practices be modified to reduce demand for homes and spare new buyers from falling into a trap. “We feel we need to avoid exposing young people to the amplified losses that result from falling house prices. Unless we act, a first time homebuyer purchasing a $300,000 home with a 5% down payment stands to lose over $45,000 on their $15,000 investment if prices fall by 10%.”

Poop, says Re/Max. Prices will not fall since, “sellers simply won’t accept that kind of discount on their listings.”

“CMHC doesn’t seem to understand the sheer number of sellers that would have to accept this kind of price reduction, in order for average housing prices to plummet to this degree in such a short time span.”

The company says there’s zero evidence of a declines in Toronto, for example, where multiple bids continue, demand is high, and offers continue to be made despite social distancing and the terrifying sight of realtors in pale blue spandex. So while sales activity has plunged by about 70%, prices have held firm. Thus, Re/Max concludes, it only gets better from here. Now Shaun Cathcart, senior economist at CREA, the national real estate outfit, agrees. Uppa, uppa.

   Not so fast. Sales may have fallen, but so have listings – dramatically. Last April there were 17,600 new offerings in Toronto, and this year that crashed to 6,100. So fewer buyers were chasing diminished supply, which is why prices have held steady – despite a sick economy and galloping unemployment. What Siddall is saying is simple. Expect a change. When mortgage deferrals end (and people are still out of work) there could be a tsunami of new listings as indebted families bail.

And let’s not forget the Airbnb factor. When the pandemic came to town there were more than 21,000 short-term rentals in the GTA alone, a lot of them condos bought for exactly that purpose. No more. That business has collapsed. The company has spent $250 million to offset the losses of hosts due to a barrage of cancelations, cancelled its IPO and laid off a third of its staff. Just peruse the condo listings, and you can see the extent of the carnage. Many more of these ghost hotel units will be coming on stream as the year progresses.

There ya go. Logic says housing will be infected by the virus. But along comes new evidence showing sales in the first half of May were much stronger than the month before, even as the job situation deteriorated. So could it be that Re/Max logic will win? Are there enough greater fools roaming the streets to keep real estate alive until a vaccine arrives?

As always, buy a house if you need one and can afford it without gutting your finances, jeopardizing your retirement and family or enslaving you to debt. Alternatively, you can invest in rising financial assets, collect your CERB, rent a beautiful place for peanuts and stop paying your landlord. Tough choice.

163 comments ↓

#1 Oakville Sucks on 05.26.20 at 4:21 pm

Does anyone know where to watch CHMC presentation? I would love to watch the whole thing.

#2 Choice on 05.26.20 at 4:25 pm

Collect CERB and stop paying your landlord. Easy choice. No rent, no eviction.

#3 willworkforpickles on 05.26.20 at 4:31 pm

Are the banks going to give current CERB recipients and the like mortgages on demand in 3 months or 6 months or a year from now? No. Not according to this blog. You know, those some odd 85 to 90% of hopefuls prior to the pandemic previously driving demand for real estate now collecting CERB and other gov handouts, (complete with a nice permanent little record of it with their names on it)? No. No new mortgage money for any of you according to this blog. Not unless the lot of you are back to full employment when you apply. Not a safe bet in the next year for about 75% of current relief recipients.
It’s no wonder – those that soon need to sell, those that soon must sell (no other choice) are very worried. Or maybe should be.

#4 Owl Eyes on 05.26.20 at 4:31 pm

Why would anyone buy when (per yesterday’s) post, squatting is a right in this country?

#5 Eaglebay on 05.26.20 at 4:31 pm

#54 Keep Your Rent on 05.25.20 at 5:04 pm

From yesterday. This guy is a thief.
All the landlords have to do is make arrangements with the honest tenants. As for the other ones, just report them to the credit bureaus. That should take care of a lot of problems.

#6 Doug t on 05.26.20 at 4:32 pm

The housing market is destroying this country – burn it down now please and thanks

#7 Howard on 05.26.20 at 4:33 pm

#259 Mattl on 05.26.20 at 2:29 pm

I debunked your claim that the mortgage deferral/temporary bailout for deadbeat borrowers was simply a bank-initiated offer to its customers, and because you’ve got nothing in the way of rebuttal you’re going for the “envy” angle. Yes, I was recruited to a major European capital, where I now live, but I’m so jealous of your cabin in Prince George lol. For some reason it bothers you to admit that the government intervened to help deadbeat owners. Not the first time you’ve followed me and others around here protesting the issue when it’s clear the facts are not on your side. I’ve been consistent in opposing all government bailouts and interventions to those who didn’t save for a rainy day.

I looked up your claim about the BC rent subsidy – a half-truth, as I suspected. There are a bunch of stringent criteria to get it and landlords have to validate the application. Most applications will probably be rejected, and it looks far better controlled than the CERB. Actually the best thing about it is that some landlords in BC who had been evading taxes will be caught red-handed through their tenants applying, should the CRA decide to do some digging.

#8 Deplorable Dude on 05.26.20 at 4:35 pm

#233 YukonElvis…” Scotiabank stock up 4.94% today after that announcement. How about that ?”

Actually finished the day up 7.4% ! All the banks were up big time today.

No idea what to make of this….all seems fake…

#9 Decent Majority on 05.26.20 at 4:36 pm

So the question becomes: How will the coward that pops out of his cottage every day screw this one up?

#10 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 05.26.20 at 4:39 pm

Back at the office today.

Had time to kill so I YouTube’d MPTV all afternoon.

Garth, you were an exceptional MP! Teaching other MPs the in-and-outs of government spending and inflation, sticking to your morals, and attentive listening to then MP Nancy Karetak-Lindell.

You are one in a million, sir.

#11 Felix on 05.26.20 at 4:41 pm

All dogs are bad.

#12 Ed McNeil on 05.26.20 at 4:43 pm

A good column. Someone such as a real estate agent might not like to face the harsh reality that his income is going down, but that is just the fact of it. At some point every one has to sell their home, be it because of age, job relocation, etc. You may have little choice but to take a loss because the house just has to go. Expect ever decreasing low ball offers as well.

#13 Jerry on 05.26.20 at 4:44 pm

I think i will wait!!

#14 YVR Renter on 05.26.20 at 4:44 pm

Saw the 1st ‘Court Ordered’ for sale sign on a house here in Van this morning, King Edward West.
And so it begins…….

#15 If it pleases the Crown, I will go for a walk on 05.26.20 at 4:46 pm

Houses here in this little town of 12,000 (5 hours from Vancouver) are 8 times the average household income. The house ponzi scheme must end.

#16 TheSpangler on 05.26.20 at 4:46 pm

House prices never go down dude, my realtor told me. Better to put your money in a house than in the stock market it’s too risky.

Thanks for sane words during these times Garth.

#17 Howard on 05.26.20 at 4:49 pm

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.667509&-79.399618&15?listing=155-yorkville-avenue-toronto-c4768140-4117883

Bachelor condo in Yorkville originally listed for $578,000. Just re-listed for $399,000, clearly hoping for a bidding war. Can’t get much better as far as prime downtown location so it will be interesting to see what this sells for. Previously comparables in this building sold for over $500K last year.

#18 IGV on 05.26.20 at 4:54 pm

I find it ironic Garth.

You are mentioning the housing market with catch the virus yet the stock market is just fine to be close to an all time high-while the unemployment rate is as well.

Cant have it both ways.

The stimulus being pumped into the stock market is easily spilled over to housing. Equally distorted.

Not buying that argument. People buy houses and qualify for mortgage lending because they are employed. – Garth

#19 True story ... on 05.26.20 at 4:54 pm

in a desirable burb in 604. Neighbor listed his house and entertained 3 offers all from others that live here already. Took one, all were over asking. See another for sale sign almost everyday around here too. Lot’s to choose from. Go figure … but then this is B.C.

#20 Borden Renter on 05.26.20 at 4:56 pm

The kvetching of the realtors will only increase in the coming months, but not before the denial wears off.

Whenever Facebook recommends a real-estate related article to me from the Financial Post or the Mop and Pail, I’ll peek my head in to read the comment section there (They run into the hundreds now). The amount of realtors in denial and still pushing FOMO is unreal. You can show them any number of facts that would cause a reasonable person to change their opinion, but they simply won’t have it.

“Buy now or be priced out of the market forever” they say. I wonder if any of them have ever stopped to ask themselves what “the market” will look like for them when it’s out of reach of the majority of the population.

#21 Yukon Elvis on 05.26.20 at 5:03 pm

#7 Deplorable Dude on 05.26.20 at 4:35 pm
#233 YukonElvis…” Scotiabank stock up 4.94% today after that announcement. How about that ?”

Actually finished the day up 7.4% ! All the banks were up big time today.

No idea what to make of this….all seems fake…
………………………….

The banks were oversold when the herd panicked. Good time to buy them imho. I bought in Feb. and May, will buy again in Aug. I am overweight the banks according to some but they are a good buy right now at 6-7% div. payouts and 8-ish p/e ratios. Back up the truck.

#22 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 05.26.20 at 5:04 pm

Sadly, their will be some very high long term costs to this pandemic, lock-down and resulting recession. Most of these costs will fall on young people. People who graduate during a recession don’t do as well in life and this is a very bad recession.

“Our third important finding is that recession graduates had higher death rates when they reached middle age. ”

https://siepr.stanford.edu/research/publications/recession-graduates-effects-unlucky

#23 Not my Elephant on 05.26.20 at 5:05 pm

Not everyone will need to sell for liquidity. Since banks won’t extend new HELOC to customers with precarious or unstable incomes, reverse mortgages are always an option. People going the reverse mortgage option will never sell and be able to hide their financial nonfeasance indefinitely.

#24 Dave on 05.26.20 at 5:06 pm

Buy a house if you need it and can afford it? Or, housing is overvalued and about to tank? Which is it? Why would you buy now if it is going to fall ?

#25 looking up on 05.26.20 at 5:07 pm

Don’t any of you know that in Canada it is strictly forbidden to imply that prices of real estate will go down.

Massive unemployment, businesses closing down.. These are things that only make the housing market go up according to REMAX.

#26 Fasa on 05.26.20 at 5:08 pm

CERB payments are maxed out at 16 weeks so that takes us to mid July which is when you will see the first cracks, the second one arrives when mortgage deferrals expire…and they will. Housing is a supply and demand dance as more supply hits the market whether it be Airbnb units or someone who is over extended we will see downward pressure on pricing…economics 101.

“You drown not by falling into a river, but by staying submerged in it.”

#27 yvr_lurker on 05.26.20 at 5:08 pm

Inverst in rising financial assets??…. I think you are overly optimistic with this. Once the Gov’t money runs out and people start defaulting on mortgages, many businesses fail, and the trouble with making an effective vaccine is apparent when round two hits big-time, my bet is that in the short-term (2–3 years) the market has a much higher risk of a substantial decline. That being said, I wouldn’t be buying any houses at this stage either.

#28 broader mind on 05.26.20 at 5:11 pm

Pretty sure our government purchased a large quantity of bank shares today. I suppose it’s a wise decision when you print money from thin air. Reality,money…. all a thing of the past.

#29 Ben on 05.26.20 at 5:11 pm

#Doug

You cannot report someone to a credit bureau even if they do not pay rent. You have to go through the courts and get a judgement first. Courts are closed now and so is the Landlord Tenant Board.

If tenants do not pay rent, landlords have no option but to wait. With LTB closed and backlog expected to take over a year and a half, tenants can live rent free till end of 2021.

#30 willworkforpickles on 05.26.20 at 5:12 pm

Buyers are/will soon be few and far between. Just when sellers need them the most. The rich won’t buy unless they can purchase for 10 cents on the dollar. It’s the way of the rich. Always has been. Always will be.

#31 45north on 05.26.20 at 5:12 pm

Evan Siddall:


Household debt, now at 99% of the economy, will swell to 130% 
Property values across the country could drop by up to 18%.
A ‘deferral cliff’ is coming in September
by September 20% of all mortgage households will not be able to pay their home loans.

of course Evan Siddall is running right into the Canadian real estate industry but he’s also running into the Federal Liberal Party. Obviously raising the down payment to 10% is going to stop the real estate industry but it’s also going to officially move us into a depression. Justin Trudeau is not going to let him do it but there’s no way he bails out CMHC on the QT.

#32 Reximus on 05.26.20 at 5:14 pm

So…if you are forced to sell your home because of the financial reality of an extended job loss, who will you get a rental approval from? Same credit-worthiness test applies…no?

#33 broader mind on 05.26.20 at 5:14 pm

Canada’s economy = banks,mortgages,houses,and real estate agents. The new normal = the guy that dies with the largest debts is the winner.

#34 Lambchop on 05.26.20 at 5:14 pm

China trying to silence Mr. Sam Cooper, and any dissenting voices in Canadian media.
Interesting.
China’s control tactics are such a taboo subject that to even broach it usually results in accusations of racism, but it’s quite real and very concerning.

To stand up against CCP tyranny is not racism.

~~~~~~~~

Conservative leadership candidate Erin O’Toole said such attempts must be handled forcefully by the government.

“It’s clear to everyone but Justin Trudeau that the Chinese regime is attempting to limit freedom of the press in Canada,” he said.
“Our government must stand up to this intimidation and certainly not facilitate it.”

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/6986602/joyce-murray-wechat-china-lawsuit/amp/

#35 Faron on 05.26.20 at 5:16 pm

#5 Doug t on 05.26.20 at 4:32 pm

The housing market is destroying this country – burn it down now please and thanks

—-

Yep. Unfortunately, there’s global demand for RE in stable countries. If it drops much, money will come flooding in, FB tax or no. Still, the market has to be allowed to melt down in order for a lesson to be learned by amateur landlords or those that view RE as investment rather than shelter and a safe place to stash money.

All those freed up dollars would help personal savings and financial markets and thus make Canada more competitive.

#36 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 05.26.20 at 5:16 pm

I only exist because people believe in me.

#37 Newman on 05.26.20 at 5:19 pm

#20 Yukon Elvis on 05.26.20
The banks were oversold when the herd panicked. Good time to buy them imho. I bought in Feb. and May, will buy again in Aug. I am overweight the banks according to some but they are a good buy right now at 6-7% div. payouts and 8-ish p/e ratios. Back up the truck.

########################

Who care’s!

Go buy a house.

#38 X on 05.26.20 at 5:19 pm

Nope nothing to see here, move along:
https://dailyhive.com/toronto/gta-largest-drop-home-prices-canada

#39 Yukon Elvis on 05.26.20 at 5:22 pm

#35 Newman on 05.26.20 at 5:19 pm
#20 Yukon Elvis on 05.26.20
The banks were oversold when the herd panicked. Good time to buy them imho. I bought in Feb. and May, will buy again in Aug. I am overweight the banks according to some but they are a good buy right now at 6-7% div. payouts and 8-ish p/e ratios. Back up the truck.

########################

Who care’s!

Go buy a house.
………………………

I already own one. Next.

#40 TheDood on 05.26.20 at 5:22 pm

#19 Borden Renter on 05.26.20 at 4:56 pm
The kvetching of the realtors will only increase in the coming months, but not before the denial wears off.

Whenever Facebook recommends a real-estate related article to me from the Financial Post or the Mop and Pail, I’ll peek my head in to read the comment section there (They run into the hundreds now). The amount of realtors in denial and still pushing FOMO is unreal. You can show them any number of facts that would cause a reasonable person to change their opinion, but they simply won’t have it.

“Buy now or be priced out of the market forever” they say. I wonder if any of them have ever stopped to ask themselves what “the market” will look like for them when it’s out of reach of the majority of the population.
____________________________________________

Yup, the realtors have been supported by low interest rates, dumb lending policy, brilliant marketing supported by MSM, and a never ending supply of financial idiots. This has been the case for 10+ years and has become the norm. Why wouldn’t they be in denial, I would be too.

#41 X on 05.26.20 at 5:22 pm

Even if you say ok, I agree that there will be less demand, and less listings, and house prices will stay the same.
Can you agree that we will qualify for the same amount of mortgage or house next year. Once I get back to work (hoping for soon) I anticipate I will earn about 50-60% of last years income. Tough to buy the same amount of house when I can’t get approved for the same amount of mortgage.

Besides because the real estate borads say so, tell me why they should go up?

#42 A J on 05.26.20 at 5:24 pm

Canadians were already indebted before this. Now, they’re screwed. It will only add up and up and up until the Fall when things will come crashing down. And maybe even a second wave of COVID. Who knows? It could be the perfect storm.

#43 Do we have all the facts on 05.26.20 at 5:30 pm

Haven’t we had enough of spokespersons with vested interests using a limited amount of information to extrapolate what might occur nation wide over the balance of the year and into the future.

If the Canadian economy does not improve and if unemployment rates stay at more than 10% through 2020 and into 2021 the demand for housing and the average price will fall. If immigration is not restored until September or later the demand for housing and average house prices will fall.

Very few sensible families will pay more for their accommodation than the market indicates that a property is worth. Financial institutions will not approve a mortgage if they feel a property is overvalued. Appraisers don’t consult Realtor newsletters to determine value.

Re/max and Royal Lepage know that the tea leaves are lining up for a substantial decline in demand across the country and are using the current demand for a limited supply of quality houses in major markets to disguise the real state of the overall housing market in Canada.

When enhanced government support for the unemployed ends, and it must, hundreds of thousands of Canadians may be forced to put their dream homes up for sale. This very real scenario does not support the fantasy that nobody needs to sell their home at a loss.

Wishing and glossy newsletters will not stop an inevitable reality and even CMHC, the biggest cheerleader for housing there ever was, saw the light. Negative reaction to the truth will not change our future.

Definitely time for a reality check.

#44 Faron on 05.26.20 at 5:32 pm

#7 Deplorable Dude on 05.26.20 at 4:35 pm

#233 YukonElvis…” Scotiabank stock up 4.94% today after that announcement. How about that ?”

Actually finished the day up 7.4% ! All the banks were up big time today.

No idea what to make of this….all seems fake

—–

Pretty stoked to hold a financials ETF.

Not long ago that would have made for a nice bump up for the TSX. But now a big chunk of the index is Shopify and today it went the other way to put it mildly.

#45 BobC on 05.26.20 at 5:39 pm

I see one small correction needed. “ Logic says housing will be infected by the virus.“ should have read “Logic says housing will be infected by the government’s response.”

#46 Young Boomer on 05.26.20 at 5:42 pm

I wouldn’t buy a house in Canada anytime soon
– gov’t risk — where are we headed with Trudeau/Libs in charge selling us out to the UN & China.
– property taxes will be going up
– all costs like maintenance/improvements will rise with carbon tax
– likely capital gains tax on housing

#47 Shooter on 05.26.20 at 5:44 pm

Hey Ed at #12
It’s like an elevator. We get them on the way in (up) and the way out (down). It might even be a bonus.

#48 Asterix1 on 05.26.20 at 5:44 pm

These RE clowns should not be allowed to publish these ridiculous reports. Prices have been falling for a while, its not done.

Was on HouseSigma, here is a mix that Sold in May 2020 at below last bought price (not counting LTT and RE fees!)

45 Boxwood Cres, Markham= -21%
208 Roadhouse Blvd, Newmarket=
180 Woodland Acres Cres, Vaughan= -30%
32 Lurgan Dr, North York – Willowdale West= -32%
66 Crestridge Dr, Vaughan = -16%
69 Holyrood Ave, Oakville = -16%
17 Haverson Blvd, Toronto = -9%

#49 Reximus on 05.26.20 at 5:47 pm

So the NHL will try to resume a playoff format in August or September with 24 teams, which will end…well who knows when.

The good news is President Biden will invite the Montreal Canadiens to the WH in january, which is nice.

#50 pathcontrolmonk on 05.26.20 at 5:48 pm

Not to mention, who is going to buy a high rise condo that limits two people per elevator?

#51 mark on 05.26.20 at 5:49 pm

There Bear was on tv again.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/rosenberg-return-to-normal-could-take-up-to-five-years-1.1440864

#52 Eaglebay on 05.26.20 at 5:51 pm

#29 Ben on 05.26.20 at 5:11 pm

You forget about the collection agencies.

#53 Paper money Prostitutue on 05.26.20 at 5:59 pm

It’s nearly June.
July is right around the corner.
The CERB will be extended, no doubt about it.
At this point with Trudeaus polling numbers the way they are why not increase the payment dollar amounts?
So July 1 announce CERB extension AND increased payment amounts because the Liberal party of Canada cares so much about the little people.
Then call an election.
If you like Trudeau with a minority government, you’ll love him with a majority.

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.26.20 at 6:05 pm

This is for Sailo.
Copied this from Der Spiegel.
—————————
Herausforderung für die Feuerwehr
Wenn E-Autos in Flammen aufgehen

Brennende Elektroautos sind für Feuerwehren eine Herausforderung. Das Löschen dauert länger als bei herkömmlichen Fahrzeugen. Und wohin mit dem Elektroschrott und dem giftigen Löschwasser?

#55 Nonplused on 05.26.20 at 6:08 pm

#24 Dave on 05.26.20 at 5:06 pm
“Buy a house if you need it and can afford it? Or, housing is overvalued and about to tank? Which is it? Why would you buy now if it is going to fall ?”

Unless you are a real estate investor you should treat buying a house like buying a car for personal use. It is a consumer item, not an investment. It will cost you money, more if you buy high and sell low so now is a risky time to buy but if you view it as a place to live for the next 10-20 years and you can afford it I think you’ll come out ok.

My guess is once the pandemic ends the cost to rent is going to go up relative to the cost of ownership. This will be due to slack housing demand for the reasons Garth and Eric mentioned and low interest rates on the housing side, and an earthquake in the rental market caused by the “keep your rent” movement. You could see damage deposits go to 3 months rent, prepayment requirements, letters of credit from the bank required, and mandatory credit and reference checks. Plus I think a lot of these rentals are going to get listed. The amateur landlords are going to get burned badly and they won’t want to experience that again.

So I think come September or maybe next spring it might be a good time to buy a family home if you have a stable job and can afford it. But speculating on real estate probably not.

#56 the Jaguar on 05.26.20 at 6:09 pm

Intelligent people everywhere must use their wits ( if they have any) to recognize that protests and personal attacks by the real estate cartel, like any other syndicate, is only an attempt at regime preservation.

As they stand at the edge of the apocalypse of their own making they will say whatever it takes to regain the attention and composure of the flock in an attempt to prevent a rush to the exits.
Unfortunately that ship has sailed. More appropriately it appears to be ‘listing’ ( pardon the pun) having been hit by an iceberg on the starboard side. The cry of ‘Everyone to the Lifeboats’ is faintly audible, but to get a seat you will need to demonstrate morality, honesty, and economic modesty with an ability to save and plan for the future. Decent, hardworking people may be shown some mercy however they may need to consider sale of assets to save their ass and future credit rating.

Those who cheat their landlords, steal from their government, and are otherwise morally bankrupt will find there is no sympathy for the devil. Get ready to hear the sound of hounds being let loose.

By the way…anybody heard from OSFI lately? Did they all just go on vacation or something or just get tired of strutting around the barnyard endlessly declaring themselves to be “Chicken Hawks”? Maybe they are hiding under the bed where bureaucrats like to avoid the glare of prying eyes looking for inspiration in a crisis, or waiting for some clue about what their next move should be from the truly competent people who will show the way forward. Yes, I refer to those ancient warriors, the usual suspects who largely stay out of the limelight but will save everyone’s bacon as they always do.
Never mind those attacks by the dumb ass cartel, Evan Siddall. Your honesty and integrity, your singular courage to stand up responsibly to try and save the ass of everyday Canadians despite their willful blindness to their predicament is inspiring. Thank you for your leadership. Please consider running for a position of national political leadership. Amen.

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.26.20 at 6:11 pm

45 BobC on 05.26.20 at 5:39 pm
I see one small correction needed. “ Logic says housing will be infected by the virus.“ should have read “Logic says housing will be infected by the government’s response.”
—————-
Why don’t you move to Brazil.
I’m sure you’d like it there.

#58 East Coast Life Style on 05.26.20 at 6:14 pm

#1 Oakville Sucks

https://youtu.be/67gBfmMbi2U

Here is part 1, the entire thing is on this YT channel in 6 parts.

Enjoy.

#59 brian 1 on 05.26.20 at 6:19 pm

People are counting on immigration. Don’t bet on it. 20 years ago children in India were playing on dirt roads in bare feet. Now they play on pavement in designer shoes. What is going to compel them to come to Canada when they are happy in their own countries. Nonsense.

#60 Goober on 05.26.20 at 6:21 pm

In the past I’ve posted items that might warrant further discussion amongst the Blog Dawgs – like the issue of UBI. Well it seems like the issue of a wealth tax has now reared its ugly head and is reaching critical mass in terms of organized federal lobbying efforts. I stumbled across this campaign and could only shake my head at what it portends for the future of taxation in our “fair land” should this movement gain any traction with the tall foreheads in Ottawa.

#61 Mithan on 05.26.20 at 6:26 pm

Garth, what is your opinion on Winnipeg? Which has been fairly stable for years, at least as far as I know.

Is the ice out of the river yet? – Garth

#62 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.26.20 at 6:28 pm

#30 willworkforpickles on 05.26.20 at 5:12 pm
Buyers are/will soon be few and far between. Just when sellers need them the most. The rich won’t buy unless they can purchase for 10 cents on the dollar. It’s the way of the rich. Always has been. Always will be.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Something that few ever understand: the truly rich won’t live just anywhere. People in places like Richmond Hill feel that their home can always be sold to ‘the rich’ in times of recession. That ‘the rich’ are recession-proof. The truly rich are recession-proof but they won’t live in a place like Richmond Hill, they only live in a select few places; Westmount, Rockcliffe Park, Forest Hill, Georgeville, North Hatley, , Niagara-on-the-Lake, and a few other such places. None of the ‘elite’ are going to bail you out of your “$million” McMansion in some pr-planned community in suburbia.

#63 Penny Henny on 05.26.20 at 6:30 pm

So could it be that Re/Max logic will win? Are there enough greater fools roaming the streets to keep real estate alive until a vaccine arrives?
////////////

In Toronto? It appears so.

Homes with dirt are not suffering at all except for days on market.
Condos will take a small hit (10% or so), but let’s not forget the run up they just had.
If they represented the stock market you would say it’s been overdue, and that they are consolidating.

#64 binky barnes on 05.26.20 at 6:31 pm

Not to worry fellow Canadians; remember we have our ‘ace-in-the-hole’, Mr. Justin Trudeau. He knows exactly what to do–both short and long term–to get this country moving again. He has a plan. No need to worry.

BB

#65 WTF on 05.26.20 at 6:33 pm

Sent Siddall a thank you a few days ago for showing the courage politicians wont . His EA passed it on with thanks.

What an albatross RE has become. Vested interests who have no checks on their pull it out of their ass “predictions” , and O political will to do the right thing. Pathetic lack of leadership.

Its gonna be interesting to watch the rats scurry when this obvious gasbag implodes

#66 Canada on 05.26.20 at 6:33 pm

Garth, what is your opinion on Winnipeg? Which has been fairly stable for years, at least as far as I know.
————-

Is the ice out of the river yet? – Garth

————–

That was great!! Hahahahahaha

#67 Wishful thinker on 05.26.20 at 6:34 pm

Wish all the speculation of falling RE comes true, but alas I have grave doubts. With all the turmoil in Hong Kong there could be a massive exodus surpassing the last one in the late nineties. The west coast is seen as a safe haven and I fear we’ll see another explosion of ingress driving prices higher.

#68 Craig Faller on 05.26.20 at 6:42 pm

^Hahahaha

#69 Nonplused on 05.26.20 at 6:51 pm

PS,

I think we should prepare for a spike in inflation due to all this handing out of money by the government, that they are in essence printing out of thin air or borrowing from the future. Using the “Monopoly” analogy again, paying people to pass “Go” but sit on their arse playing Minecraft all day and thus producing no goods and services is highly inflationary. It creates a surplus of money and a shortage of goods and services. It won’t work. But it also won’t go away anytime soon. The government will have a hard time cutting it off in July unless the jobs are back. UBI is possibly here to stay and it is more than minimum wage. Never waste a good crisis, as they say in politics.

Also, look at the “opening” rules! Garth isn’t getting his hair cut any time soon. Word on the street is to meet the guidelines barbers are taking out half their work stations, have to wear PPE, and have to disinfect between each customer (which takes about 10 minutes). Oh and the customers have to wait in their cars or outside, no waiting areas. Like that is going to work. But those who are planning to open are already booked out 2 weeks in advance and the wait list is getting longer! And guess what? Prices are way up. As one would expect when the barber shop suddenly has to buy 5 gallon pails of hand sanitizer at Canadian Tire and masks from the government and tons of Lysol and operate at 50% capacity. Oh and the staff don’t want to come back because they are making more from CERB.

This all better have been worth it. I’m seriously coming to think we are heading into a depression because we strangely put some lives above all livelihoods. The shock could take years to resolve and require a great devaluation of the currency.

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.26.20 at 6:53 pm

In 2014, there were about 300 k Canadian Citizens living in Hongkong.
One can safely assume that the number is closer to 400 k now.
If the current political situation escalates, Vancouver and Toronto could see a new wave of Hongkongers seeking a safe haven.
Not one to make predictions, but it could happen.

#71 YouKnowWho on 05.26.20 at 6:58 pm

So what will happen to that Huawei Meng lady tomorrow?

We hand her over to the Americans or send her back to China and get a plane full of PPEs?

#72 Reximus on 05.26.20 at 6:59 pm

#55 Nonplused

do you live in a car?

#73 YouKnowWho on 05.26.20 at 7:00 pm

Is the ice out of the river yet? – Garth

That’s cold Garth. Cold!

#74 Leftover on 05.26.20 at 7:13 pm

Re/Max:

“sellers simply won’t accept that kind of discount on their listings.”

No, they certainly don’t want to but they have in the past. Vancouver dropped 39% in 1982 and nobody was happy about it but there wasn’t much they could do. And if the bank has to move in it’s really not “their” listing anymore.

What matters is the marginal sale, the supposed outlier that becomes the norm. That’s how prices move up and it’s also how they move down. All that’s supporting prices is fear-constrained supply; that house of cards is starting to collapse as sales to new listings dips below 40%.

#75 Md on 05.26.20 at 7:13 pm

As always, this to shall pass. Housing prices in the GTA will continue at the same price, or slightly less. But this will not cause a housing crash by any means. The powers that be have realized that there is to much at stake to allow homes that hold the bulk of people’s net worth collapse in value. Just like Garth said. Buy if you can afford without gutting your finances… Cause it ain’t getting any cheaper.

#76 Jager on 05.26.20 at 7:18 pm

We haven’t protected the most vulnerable from this virus (LTC facilities are now death traps) and yet we pretend that the lock down is beneficial. To whom?

And this…

“Ontario NDP leader calls for long-term care minister’s resignation after disturbing report”
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/ontario-ndp-leader-calls-for-long-term-care-ministers-resignation-after-disturbing-report/ar-BB14Dq0a?OCID=ansmsnnews11

Note: Acts of abuse and violence are pervasive in senior facilities across Canada. Watch for this to be swept under the carpet and forgotten by all in a few months.

#77 T on 05.26.20 at 7:23 pm

To all you second and third wavers, unbelievers in advanced science leading to an effective vaccine in record time. To all those who believe this virus is the end of civilization as we know it. To all those whom believe Canada is in better shape than our neighbours to the south. To those who suddenly believe they are all knowing scientists because they watched a few shows and read some posts on reddit, Facebook, etc.

Turn off CNN.

Stop scouring social media.

Stop falling into the fear pit.

Everything is going to be just fine.

The ‘new normal’ will be old news and laughable before we know it.

Enjoy your time with your dogs. They deserved some extra love. They can sense your hysteria.

#78 Attrition on 05.26.20 at 7:29 pm

If anyone thinks a house bought today will be worth less in 10 years, well, there’s no hope for ya.

Who cares about a little correction? It’s called a buying opportunity. 18% down? Niiice. 40% down? Even better.

But, not gonna happen–or if it does, certainly not for long. Once again: Canaduh is a resource nation with plenty of space, clean air, democracy (for now at least), social safety net, low corruption, incredibly strong banks, free healthcare, relatively open borders and liberal immigration policies.

Any RE blip is a buying opportunity, and how many of those do you think you’re going to get in this lifetime?

Alas, sheep are so easily started off or frozen still by the one thing they spend most of their lives praying to the empty skies for (and yet, rarely preparing for): opportunity.

If you can’t see it coming, you always miss it.

#79 Nonplused on 05.26.20 at 7:30 pm

“Buy now or be priced out of the market forever” they say.

I wonder how that could be possible. I mean, it seems to imply there is some unlimited group of people who have an unlimited amount of money to keep bidding up prices on all houses, and there will be no supply side response.

The price of a house can be summed up in 4 factors, location, income, interest rates, and building quality. So yes some houses will get really expensive if they are close to high paying jobs and interest rates are low. But even a tree cannot grow to the sky.

I place building quality at the end of the list because close to downtown it will cost less to demo the shack and build a mansion than the land costs, so a lot of high end buyers are not even looking at the house, just the land survey. Then down it comes.

I have a friend that bought a “new” house close to downtown, and it is mostly new. The old house was carted off in dump trucks. Nothing of the old house was left except the sewer and water mains, which were higher up than you would find in a modern basement so they have a small septic tank and a pump to get the shit out of the basement washroom. Can’t just re-lay the sewer, because the main in the street isn’t deep enough. But most problems have a solution and the septic tank and pump can be had for a few thousand. But don’t be flushing when the power is out.

So why is this relevant? Well, my friend had to sell a larger property in the suburbs to get his downtown digs. One property gets bid, the other gets listed. One goes up, the other goes down. “You can’t always get what you want, but you just might find, sometimes you get what you need.”

If you are priced out, you are either trying to buy in the wrong area or you haven’t been attentive to the income side of the balance sheet. There is a reason more Corollas sell than 911’s. If you shop for what you can afford you’ll find the Canadian housing market is that screwed up. Instead, you’ll find it is low interest rates and rich people buying up anything intercity that is causing the distortions. If you want to live in Red Deer, jobs are available (well until recently) and houses are affordable (but barely, but houses were always barely affordable, this isn’t new).

I am not sure there is a housing crisis in Canada. Instead, what we have is a trend for all the doctors and lawyers and dentists to move intercity, and they are paying a lot to do so since they can get 2% financing. The suburbs still go for a lot less. But averages are not means. For every intercity house that goes for $2 million 4 houses have to sell in the suburbs for $400,000 to make the average $720,000. The bubble is mostly in the high end market. Averages are useless. It would be like averaging the price of a Corolla with the price of a Porsche, and declaring that is what cars cost.

#80 Toronto Steve on 05.26.20 at 7:35 pm

#1 Oakville Sucks on 05.26.20 at 4:21 pm

Another option for the full meeting with Evan is:
https://parlvu.parl.gc.ca/Harmony/en/PowerBrowser/PowerBrowserV2/20200519/-1/33255

#81 Alphonse Kehaulic on 05.26.20 at 7:43 pm

Always amusing (and predictable) how TurnerNation gets a few haters in the comments. I suppose the obvious, when it’s uncomfortable, is painful.

My friends in China say they now need to show a QR code to enter most restaurants, pubs, and tourist attractions. Total buzz killer man!

Could a similar scheme be rolled out in Kanada?

#82 Bezengy on 05.26.20 at 7:43 pm

#61 #73

Is the ice off the river? I’m guessing yes, and I’m glad to report here in Goldtown our lake is a balmy 62% F today, so it’s off the dock we go. The sauna helps.

btw….the water tastes great.

#83 Lost...but not leased on 05.26.20 at 7:44 pm

The irony is that REAL estate will become R-E-A-L again….

Yeah…peak prices will adjust…but again what is left is still a sought after “kick the tires” commodity

Who in their right mind would invest in the markets right now ???…….when it is clear the Feds and their usual suspect cronies have injected helicopter $$$ to prop up a $$$inking ship.

#84 Yukon Elvis on 05.26.20 at 7:50 pm

#71 YouKnowWho on 05.26.20 at 6:58 pm
So what will happen to that Huawei Meng lady tomorrow?

We hand her over to the Americans or send her back to China and get a plane full of PPEs?
…………………………………….

The judge will fuddle duddle around with some legal issue and delay proceedings for another 3-6 months.

#85 Nonplused on 05.26.20 at 7:51 pm

#72 Reximus on 05.26.20 at 6:59 pm
#55 Nonplused

do you live in a car?

————————-

How would you get that from my comment?

If you must know,

When young I lived with my parents in a really small room I shared with my brother.

In university I lived in my grandmother’s basement.

Then I got married and lived in a rented apartment near the university while my younger wife completed studies.

Then I house-sat my in-laws house because my father in law had the choice between being fired or going to Europe. He wanted to ride out to his pension. Wise, but disruptive.

Then one of the dogs that came with the house died and they never forgave me even though I don’t think I had anything to do with it.

Then we bought a house which my younger wife kicked me out of.

Then I stayed with a friend for 3 months and the only rent he charged was that I kept beer in the fridge.

Then I moved into a (pretty nice actually) basement suite for a year.

Then I bought a house, small but close to downtown. Made out ok after some renovations.

Sold that house and rented a 2600 sq/ft house on 4 acres for about 3 years. Had to buy a garden tractor because the lease put the lawn maintenance on me.

Now I own a 2 acre plot (no mortgage) with a nice house and a new younger wife.

Time have been hard, but I always stuck with work and income pays off.

I do have to admit that I have slept in my car before but only when circumstances dictated that it would not be wise to drive it. You can’t make a lot of money from jail.

#86 Do we have all the facts on 05.26.20 at 7:58 pm

# 69 Nonplused

The escaping Governor of the Bank of Canada indicated that more stimulus dollars must be “invested” in 2020 to kickstart growth of our economy. Without additional debt fuelled investment Canada could slip into a long depression that might result in deflation.

I couldn’t believe my ears when he admitted that Canadian monetary policy would add hundreds of billions of dollars to GOC debt in order to maintain a fine balance between inflation and deflation.

Many economists have pointed out that when smaller Nations undertake the type of massive of quantitative easing initiated by Canada in 2020 inflation cannot be avoided.

Canada is incapable of generating the level of economic growth required to service additional debt of $500 billion trillion. Our reputation for sound financial management has been seriously damaged over the past few months as the Bank of Canada gobbled up various forms of securities in the primary and secondary markets. Our money supply is totally out of whack with the current state of out GDP and it might take divine intervention to avoid some level of inflation in the near future.

#87 yorkville renter on 05.26.20 at 7:59 pm

#17 — pretty sure that unit is an Air BnB unit, and it’s incredibly small… bidding war? not really – it may sell over asking but it won’t sell for over $500K like the comparables. too many better options out there.

the building – the old Four Seasons – is rampant with Air BnB units

#88 Wilbur on 05.26.20 at 8:14 pm

I wonder if bankruptcy will become vogue?

#89 EmmEmm on 05.26.20 at 8:18 pm

Trudeau faking it and seems like pleading to people to stop applying for the Covid benefits and start working again .. nice try but we will suck every drop of the dole !!

“If you are looking for work right now and want to contribute to the fight against the-19, thousands of possibilities are available to you. In our agri-food sector, thousands of jobs are available – whether for the crop, harvest, storage or transportation of food products. And across the country, with companies and organizations that offer services to those who need it most, more than 44 positions are available in essential services.”

#90 Evan Siddal Testimony on 05.26.20 at 8:24 pm

Evan Siddal gives testimony to some sort of parliamentary committee.
6 parts

Pt 1 https://youtu.be/67gBfmMbi2U
Pt 2 https://youtu.be/1FjWSTDj6-s
Pt 3 https://youtu.be/QYl0diQUgck
Pt 4 https://youtu.be/27zmhALj_1M
Pt 5 https://youtu.be/Y33lqPtW1IM
Pt 6 https://youtu.be/IflosIvpyyE

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.26.20 at 8:25 pm

@#84 Yukon Elvis
“The judge will fuddle duddle around with some legal issue and delay proceedings for another 3-6 months.”
++++
Pffft.
This is Canada.
3 to 6 YEARS.

Hell.
One of the accused in the Surrey Six slaughter has just now been indicted.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/jamie-bacon-to-be-tried-for-murder-in-surrey-six-case-appeal-court-rules

13 YEARS after the murders.
Appeal, lose appeal.
Appeal again, lose appeal.
Appeal appeal appeal.
Case eventually thrown out because it took to long to go to trial and violated the accused “rights” to a quick and speedy trail.
Oh Can-Uh-Duh

#92 Sail Away on 05.26.20 at 8:26 pm

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.26.20 at 6:05 pm
This is for Sailo.
Copied this from Der Spiegel.
—————————
Herausforderung für die Feuerwehr
Wenn E-Autos in Flammen aufgehen

Brennende Elektroautos sind für Feuerwehren eine Herausforderung. Das Löschen dauert länger als bei herkömmlichen Fahrzeugen. Und wohin mit dem Elektroschrott und dem giftigen Löschwasser?

—————-

Thanks Ponz! In response:

O di nma ma anyi gbatuo obere ugboala na ndi mmadu oku. Ọ dịghị njọ karịa ihe mberede ụgbọ ala. opekata mpe enweghị mmanụ ma ọ bụ mmanụ.

#93 yvr_lurker on 05.26.20 at 8:38 pm

Here is the new normal: Restaurants charging in advance for patrons to dine in.

“Now, to get one of the even fewer dinner reservations at St. Lawrence, you’re going to have to buy your food before you get to the restaurant.

Starting May 28, St. Lawrence will offer a Table d’Haute three-course menu, available by booking – and paying – in advance.”

I understand the logic with restaurants doing this as they can only be at 50% capacity and a no-show really will impact the bottom line. However, realistically, do they expect people to actually be all in for paying in advance for a meal whose quality may not be the same as before do to problems with sourcing etc..? I can’t see that this will be a success.

Ordered sushi from a take-out last week that we would occasionally go to pre-covid. First take out since early March. My wife got a bad case of food-poisoning from it. Specialty rolls were unusually covered in thick drippy sauce; something was clear a bit off, but I was okay, having the stomach of a Labrador. Must have not been fresh sushi due to sourcing problems. Can’t say we are going to do take-out any time soon. It’s hard for me to imagine that the chic restauranteur with the advance pay principle is going to succeed.

#94 MF on 05.26.20 at 8:48 pm

#59 brian 1 on 05.26.20 at 6

Pretty sure the main source of immigrants to Canada right now is actually India.

What would compel them to come here?

Go to Brampton and see how Indian people are flourishing for a clue.

MF

#95 Looking up on 05.26.20 at 8:50 pm

For sure Canadian real estate is grossly overvalued by most logical metrics. Be that at it may, there’s too much money waiting to buy. If there is any kind of price dip it will be small and short lived.

#96 MF on 05.26.20 at 8:55 pm

Siddall is correct of course.

People have been ringing the warning bells for years about our reliance on overvalued crap (real estate) and debt levels.

Yet,

Rates were kept at rock bottom and now we have the bank of Canada buying “mortgage backed securities” to manipulate interest rates downward. Still.

It’s too late and now there is no other choice I guess?

I like the analogy where Siddall compared the reliance of real estate to high blood pressure. It’s biological (up my alley).

MF

#97 Marco on 05.26.20 at 9:05 pm

#85

Now I own a 2 acre plot (no mortgage) with a nice house and a new younger wife.
————————————————————

You own a new younger wife? You own?

#98 TurnerNation on 05.26.20 at 9:16 pm

Hmm ES’s name anagrams into “Land Slave Id”. The real meaning of a Mort-gage?

– Blog dogs soon will get 10 sick days off posting each year.

– Oh, oh the pablum got privatized:

“Torstar Corp. has entered into an arrangement agreement with NordStar Capital LP for NordStar to acquire Torstar. Torstar’s businesses include the Toronto Star and a portfolio of other news media businesses.”

#99 PBrasseur on 05.26.20 at 9:18 pm

The CMHC was always about printing money.

But now there is more urgent than just propping up consumption, they also have to bail the entire economy and soon enough probably a few provinces.

Canada is not the Eurozone or the US, this is not sustainable in the markets and we are at risk of a major crisis that could wipe most assets owned by Canadian households, just as the aging of the population reaches its worst phase.

Wow!

#100 willworkforpickles on 05.26.20 at 9:29 pm

#62 The rich only buy for pennies on the the dollar from the banks and leave a property sit empty until the right time comes for a redevelopement. Strictly from a location location location perspective.

#101 Rick Adams on 05.26.20 at 9:40 pm

Global News at 6 this evening featured realtors smiling from ear to ear because they say house prices are still going up and selling fast when listed. But the report warned of what happens down the road when the pandemic catches up to the real estate market, including the AirBnB units. That can hardly be a secret no matter how much propoganda the realty industry puts out.

#102 Sail Away on 05.26.20 at 9:41 pm

#97 Marco on 05.26.20 at 9:05 pm
#85

Now I own a 2 acre plot (no mortgage) with a nice house and a new younger wife.

—————

You own a new younger wife? You own?

—————

Must’ve sold the other one.

#103 Fused on 05.26.20 at 9:41 pm

AAL and CCL up over 10% today, what are you blog dogs buying?

#104 willworkforpickles on 05.26.20 at 9:42 pm

….and at a million dollars currently, what are we talking about? – A 2 bdrm bungalow. The rich won’t show for any price reduction. Any location.

#105 Gooblygoo on 05.26.20 at 9:43 pm

While the MSM makes Trump out to look like a buffoon, the man works tirelessly for all of humanity, even though 90% are asleep!

Over the last week, DJT did the following:

1. Made vaccines voluntary, but not mandatory.

2. Defunded the W.H.O. forever and demanded an investigation.

3. Canceled the Democrats HR 666 bill, known as the COVID TRACE Act that was the basis for Bill Gates’ diagnosis and tracking project, which was also canceled.

4. Canceled Bill Gates project known as ID2020

5. Opened up a complaint platform to report censorship on Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube. It was overrun with complaints

6. Stopped 5G roll out nationwide.

7. Executive orders to re-open states. Governors who refuse to reopen will be sued!

8. Executive orders for White House to take over all electrical grids, which include internet servers, broadcasting systems, electronic systems.

9. Declares places of worship as “essential services”. God bless DJT

10. Applauded Australia and 116 other countries for demanding a probe into China for the spread of COVID 19, despite several threats from China about refusing critical exports.

Furthermore, his to-do list is very long.

He is looking at a gold-backed standard and a global reset called Nesara/Gesara, as well as draining the swamp globally of the nefarious and Satanic Deep State, creating a just and fair world, where the planet’s wealth is equally distributed and all men can live in harmony and peace, without war, starvation and in concert with nature.

#106 Yukon Elvis on 05.26.20 at 9:43 pm

The very latest update on Corona virus.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AVetNcRKTF0

#107 Stealth on 05.26.20 at 9:45 pm

Why is Sinan not posting as often as Doug and Ryan?

#108 TurnerNation on 05.26.20 at 9:48 pm

Pablum media? Who are our new (tech) overlords?

Amazon is a biggie. Their A.I. might even be in your room now (Alexa)

This is uncanny:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=29&v=x6U2Un5kEdI&feature=emb_title

0:30 / 1:35
11 Local TV Stations Pushed the Same Amazon-Scripted Segment

#109 Reality is stark on 05.26.20 at 9:56 pm

All the stars are lining up for real estate, just ask anyone who paid 3 mill for a house in Vancouver 3 years ago.
It was a lock. Easy money as they say.
Now that unemployment is 30%, no AirBNB, banks reluctant to lend money, no immigration, people avoiding paying rent, real estate sounds like the way to go while prices are still nice and high.
As the good folks in the GTA would say we are not subject to the same economic laws as the folks in Vancouver.
Load up the truck. Buy the most expensive house you can afford.
The government just guaranteed that real estate will skyrocket just ask the guy from CMHC before he gets fired.

#110 willworkforpickles on 05.26.20 at 9:58 pm

#67 Hong Kong’ers wanting out are currently seeking British passports and citizenship. No talk of a mass exodus this way.

#111 TurnerNation on 05.26.20 at 10:09 pm

20 Year Financing!! Is this the break-a-da-legs plan?

https://www.kijiji.ca/b-ontario/boat-financing/k0l9004

20 YEAR FINANCING AVAILABLE

FINANCING AVAILABLE 20 YEARS

#112 AisA on 05.26.20 at 10:51 pm

“CMHC doesn’t seem to understand the sheer number of sellers that would have to accept this kind of price reduction, in order for average housing prices to plummet to this degree in such a short time span.”

Accept?

That is not what happens in a falling market… you wake up and your stuff is worth less to those willing to pay anything for it. You don’t have to accept it, unless you actually want to sell. derp.

#113 Jay Currie on 05.26.20 at 10:55 pm

Is the ice out of the river yet? – Garth

Of course it is, the black swarms of mosquitos obscuring the Sun are the biggest hint.

#114 Nick on 05.26.20 at 10:59 pm

Everything will be fine in lower brainland.

#115 Coastal gal on 05.26.20 at 10:59 pm

Looks like real estate it’s still hot on Vancouver Island. Live in Courtenay. Neighbor’s house was listed last week and they got a full price offer within a day. Nice family neighbourhood and houses are approx $550 k.

#116 BC Renovator on 05.26.20 at 11:02 pm

Where is Uppa Uppa guy? lol

#117 WUL on 05.26.20 at 11:06 pm

#59 brian 1 on 05.26.20 at 6:19 pm
People are counting on immigration. Don’t bet on it. 20 years ago children in India were playing on dirt roads in bare feet. Now they play on pavement in designer shoes. What is going to compel them to come to Canada when they are happy in their own countries. Nonsense.

heat…heat…heat…

Curiously, I was in a liquor emporium the other day in Fort Mac. My car knows the way there without AI devices. The quite young lady working there was from India and she was as bedazzling as the stock on the shelves. So, I chatted with her. She came here alone and left all family back home. She is university educated. I said to her, jokingly, “So, you must love winter.” She said she did! She grew weary of +45 degree Celsius temps.

Garth, your sense of humour is sterling and provides some uplift these days. An MSU (insincere but respectfully).

WUL

M64InHumorlessFtMac

#118 Felix on 05.26.20 at 11:07 pm

It’s not just dogs that are bad.

Most of their owners are selfish bozos who let them off leash illegally compromising the safety of humans and especially children.

Some are even blatant racist bimbos.

Have a look at this mind blowing video:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/central-park-white-woman-black-man-racism-dog-leash-1.5585148

Cats are so much better.

There are no ‘bad cats’.

#119 Don Guillermo on 05.26.20 at 11:34 pm

#97 Marco on 05.26.20 at 9:05 pm
#85
Now I own a 2 acre plot (no mortgage) with a nice house and a new younger wife.
————————————————————
You own a new younger wife? You own?
************************************
Seriously trifecta … that’s where you’re going?

#120 Lm on 05.26.20 at 11:49 pm

Speaking to my mother about how she lived through several recessions and my dad sold vacuums and slept in peoples basements as he travelled to to that. This was in Alberta the first big recession there they sold the house and came out by the skin of their teeth. In Ontario when the free trade agreement was signed and all the jobs disappeared to Mexico. He drove around the province looking for any type of work. When there is absolutely no work and no way to pay the mortgage housing will plummet just like it always has in bad times. Anyone who buys now is a fool.

#121 Seven Deadly Sins on 05.27.20 at 12:28 am

DELETED

#122 Tim123 on 05.27.20 at 1:36 am

The majority of people are not in that great of a financial position with close to 60% of people living cheque to cheque. I think there are a large number of people who will be forced to sell their houses, especially if they are unemployed. I think that Remax and the CREA will fool many people in to thinking housing prices cannot go down but I also think that many people will realize the obvious unemployment situation is going to mean that housing is about to crash, and I think it will be more than 18% in a year. Time will tell how much real estate drops by, but people are scared so a lot of businesses will not be back until a vaccine is found, manufactured and widely distributed which could be several years or more.

#123 islander on 05.27.20 at 1:58 am

https://www.mortgagesandbox.com/vancouver-real-estate-forecast

scroll down for map of YVR airBNBs…

#124 Seven Deadly Sins on 05.27.20 at 2:35 am

Just watching CNS Singapore. The Island Meritocracy announces jobs jobs jobs. The entire leadership focus is on the economy. Wow, a government working for its people! Amazing. Now, what did the Liberal Party announce today? Trudeaus focus will pivot to Africa, his Junior Non Voting Temporary Seat and Climate Change Sustainable Finance Goal for 2030.

No Jobs jobs jobs? Sad, at least the CBC will stop talking about the 5000 Covid dead and those ugly stats about horrid people complaining in nursing homes. How dare they point fingers and embarrass Justin at this very important time.

#125 belly rubs on 05.27.20 at 2:44 am

Is there the financial gas out there to propel the RE industry to higher levels? Perhaps a chart exists showing hordes of cash and healthy credit lurking below the surface, ready to resume bidding wars? More likely, houses that need work, or have issues, or cost too much will depreciate. People who must sell will reduce their asking price. It’s reasonable that some feel momentum over the last ten years will continue to send RE higher. Sudden change is hard. There were people on the Titanic who waited for an elevator to the lifeboat deck.

For the faint of heart: I wouldn’t sweat it—people the world over will be trying to renegotiate debt. You are not alone. The problem is systemic, not you personally.

#126 Kevin on 05.27.20 at 6:17 am

Urban, sub urban, rural, where is the real estate money moving to?
The only thing I know is that if you own waterfront , preferably oceanfront, the price is going up. Supply and demand.

#127 maxx on 05.27.20 at 7:27 am

@ #9

The budget will not “balance itself”.

#128 BillyBob on 05.27.20 at 7:52 am

A longterm Canadian expat I know was intrigued by all this government money being, um, sprayed, up the side of the proverbial wall and wanted to see just easy it might be to obtain some of it regardless of entitlement. Only as an experiment to see what those with genuinely fraudulent intent might be able to achieve, of course.

So they went online to the CERB site from overseas and filled in the requisite boxes awhile ago. Perhaps some of the details selected were not entirely accurate, but the experiment was premised on those with nefarious intent not being entirely truthful either.

As the weeks passed without results, it was assumed, nay hoped, that the application had been rejected as it rightfully should have been. But to the expat’s great surprise, notice was just received from an accommodating acquaintance in Canada that a cheque has arrived at the address provided on the application.

The expat claims they have no intention of depositing the cheque, although they do plan to sit on it and see if any action is ever taken to attempt to recover it. The experiment certainly gave pause for thought: if this was possible so casually, organized crime groups must certainly be making out like bandits. They’re not usually far away from such irresistibly soft targets.

Is there a single responsible adult in existence in Ottawa?

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/jack-m-mintz-canadas-debt-load-is-even-worse-than-you-think

#129 maxx on 05.27.20 at 8:00 am

Most dawgs on this blog know that everyone swims in the same economic pool. Prices on a lot of stuff can try to go uppa, uppa, but in the end, all retail and re follow the money. Threats of price increases don’t bother me one whit. Business that menace consumers with COVID fees and taxes won’t see my ilk walking through their doors. Pour quoi? Two things: savers will keep their money pile static or growing, always, and others don’t have any – an unstable and temporary buying demographic. You wanna sell, you set the price according to prevailing parameters.

All of this economic mess was started and upheld by excessive re pumping via damaging low rates. It’s so bad, that now the public purse is thrown at the fallout.

Its way past time to choke off this monster’s oxygen supply.

Cash, in part, has an inverse relationship to the real economy. The worse it gets, the more cash is worth. Unlike the irretrievably stupid who continue to dig themselves into a debt hole, many, if not most dawgs know how to stretch a buck. I love the sound of screaming retailers. I work damned hard for my share of the pie and intend to keep more than crumbs just for times like these. I’ve lived through a bunch of these crises and the mid-90s in particular taught me most everything I know about how totally helpless we all are when it comes to economic forces.

Except…..for learning to save and doing it. Society in general hates savers because they are not doing their so-called, “civic duty” and spraying money around to increase its velocity. Savers are cheap, money grubbing, you name it. Our entire culture is wrapped round spender adulation.

Best compliment I ever got was from a New York City antique dealer who said with total admiration on his face: “you’re the toughest customer I’ve ever had.”

#130 Rob on 05.27.20 at 8:10 am

# 26 Fasa

Astute – tell us more please

#131 TurnerNation on 05.27.20 at 8:11 am

This isn’t going away…neither is CERB. They have to break all small businesses
This is global economic and cultural reset with defined timelines by areas, and goals. It will be extended until all other elements and facets have been rolled out.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-extends-all-emergency-orders-until-june-9-1.4956405

#132 Ace Goodheart on 05.27.20 at 8:42 am

So as per usual, Warren Buffett sees the future.

Went to cash on his banks, airlines, and a bunch of other stuff, at a slight loss.

So everyone is like, is he nuts, the old man must have lost it.

Yeah, right. Warren never loses it.

He is preparing to buy. He sees the future. There is this incredible buying opportunity coming up, particularly for banks, credit card stocks and resources, and he saw it before anyone else did.

Watch him over the winter. He will be eating up distressed equities like a vulture on the highway.

#133 Dharma Bum on 05.27.20 at 9:32 am

I bought a house in 1985.
I still live in it.
I wonder if it went up?
I guess I won’t know until I sell it.
The “housing market” is a side show to the purpose of owning a house – living in it.
Like Garth says, buy one if you need it and can afford it.
Then, whether it goes up or down is incidental.

#134 Paul on 05.27.20 at 10:00 am

#129 Max
Best compliment I ever got was from a New York City antique dealer who said with total admiration on his face: “you’re the toughest customer I’ve ever had.”
————————————————————————————————
Sorry, but that was my Uncle Saul he says that the time.
He said everyone wants to win. Lol

#135 Fred Salvage on 05.27.20 at 10:18 am

DELETED

#136 the Jaguar on 05.27.20 at 10:21 am

Anybody else but me think Felix might actually be Stephen Harper?

#137 TurnerNation on 05.27.20 at 10:28 am

Once again folks this system of control is not going away.
Did you see how they used predictive programming?
Two day ago the front page of Toronto Star was a full picture of people sitting crowded into a park. Got people riled up. Few days earlier was a CTV fake kissing story – posted here – in that same park! It is being used as ground-zero for this.
TskTsk now our elites will punish us with new rules.

Remember we are in the Compliance and Data Gathering (that’s what ‘social media’ is for) stages of this global rollout. All cities are on the same script.
https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/05/social-distancing-circles-in-toronto-parks/

#138 Ministry of truth on 05.27.20 at 10:36 am

Is this happening in 1st world Country? If PAID care for humans are done like this, imagine, how it would be done when FREE-healthcare services are needed.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/long-term-care-pandemic-covid-coronavirus-trudeau-1.5584960

#139 TurnerNation on 05.27.20 at 10:50 am

Here’s some evidence that the 2nd Wave – of Bankruptcies – will be coming in the cold months. Of course this will trigger more CERB extensions.
And have fun linking up outside stores in frigid weather , getting sick. Such that when your temperature is taken at the door you are forbidden entry to buy food.
See the nice little open air prison they got going?
You will be forced into online ordering…which is the overall goal. Humans must be kept apart and isolated.

Look the are telling you this is permanent – every city, same script:

https://huddle.today/halifax-widens-sidewalks-as-mayor-hints-at-future-street-closures/

“Business leaders in Halifax have asked the city to close some downtown roads to vehicle traffic this summer to make room for more outdoor seating. Many, particularly restaurants and cafes, say it might be the only way they can survive the summer.” <——–

#140 YVR Expat on 05.27.20 at 10:55 am

My posts aren’t going through, is there a problem with the site?

The site is fine. The problem is you. – Garth

#141 Sail Away on 05.27.20 at 11:06 am

#136 the Jaguar on 05.27.20 at 10:21 am

Anybody else but me think Felix might actually be Stephen Harper?

—————

Possibly. I thought Felix was my spinster aunt Maud peering out the windows and muttering about her neighbours, but Stephen Harper also fits.

#142 IHCTD9 on 05.27.20 at 11:23 am

#59 brian 1 on 05.26.20 at 6:19 pm
People are counting on immigration. Don’t bet on it. 20 years ago children in India were playing on dirt roads in bare feet. Now they play on pavement in designer shoes. What is going to compel them to come to Canada when they are happy in their own countries. Nonsense.
— —- –

We’re already seeing it with the Chinese, their Citizenship rate is down almost 50%. Things have improved a lot in China since ‘96, and here we see the results.

Every Indian I’ve ever discussed this with told me in no uncertain terms that India is a giant corrupt $h!thole of a country, and that I won’t live to see anything good come of that place. Of course, these dudes moved from there to here so take it for what it’s worth.

We can expect general improvements in developing nations, and a corresponding drop in immigration levels alongside. We can also expect that Canada will be offering less to newcomers. Trudeau can give himself a slap on the back for this. If Trudeau makes it to 2023, he’ll have orchestrated near half a trillion (with a T) in brand new debt for 19 million workers to shoulder. By 2036, 1 in 3 slaving to pay this debt will be foreign born, they’ll be making less, taxed more, and have a lower quality of life.

No one wants to be a beast of burden.

#143 Do we have all the facts on 05.27.20 at 11:29 am

In the last quarter of 2019 there were 275,000 housing units under construction in Canada. The highest level of supply in Canadian history.

Demand for housing is shrinking due to the lack of immigration, unemployment, under employment and a generally weak economy. Supply has never been higher.

Sounds like the Canadian housing market is in fantastic shape to me. Fewer qualified buyers chasing the highest supply of new units in history how could prices ever be effected. (sarcasm if you missed it)

Look at the facts folks not self serving press releases.

#144 JB on 05.27.20 at 11:37 am

#17 Howard on 05.26.20 at 4:49 pm

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.667509&-79.399618&15?listing=155-yorkville-avenue-toronto-c4768140-4117883

Bachelor condo in Yorkville originally listed for $578,000. Just re-listed for $399,000, clearly hoping for a bidding war. Can’t get much better as far as prime downtown location so it will be interesting to see what this sells for. Previously comparables in this building sold for over $500K last year.
………………………………………………………………
I’m thinking five years of downward trend in condos, WTF wants to live in either a used rental Airbnb, concrete box with no to minimal windows, recirculated air form your neighbors and common areas, small garbage chutes (which you have to go to several times per week), oh and that ride in the lift…Ewe so not looking forward to sharing the airspace with old moisters coughing up a lung. I don’t care how clean you think your building is you are living communally with others. All the time! If you own one my condolences if your thinking of buying one your a idiot. It is going to be a rut run on these pariahs.

#145 Damifino on 05.27.20 at 12:17 pm

#105 Gooblygoo

[Trump] is […] creating a just and fair world, where the planet’s wealth is equally distributed and all men can live in harmony and peace, without war, starvation and in concert with nature.
—————————————-

How much of his own wealth has he distributed so far?

And if you really were in concert with nature you’d be playing 4th triangle whenever natural calamity was not raining down indifferently upon you.

You’d appeal to the almighty for relief and his answer would be the usual: “I gave you a capable brain and plenty of hydrocarbons. Get on with it, man!”

#146 Ejy on 05.27.20 at 12:31 pm

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4350032-canadian-housing-collapse-and-big-5-banks

#147 YVR Expat on 05.27.20 at 12:31 pm

Anyone gong to cottage country this weekend?

#148 willworkforpickles on 05.27.20 at 12:38 pm

In the early 90’s recession when qualified buyers disappeared, real estate prices crashed 25% on average to 40% in Toronto. The why’s and what-for’s are different this time around (int rates notwithstanding) but the common denominator of the same lack of qualified buyers is identical.
Builders on a grand scale went belly up then amidst a mass new oversupply.
I still own real estate in South Central Ontario and Stateside, Been in the market since late 70’s Twist and Turned through (5 now) recessions.

#149 Rob Lee on 05.27.20 at 12:46 pm

I’m curious to hear from the people who timed it perfectly and knew it was time to get out of the market before the pandemic hit. Are they back in the markets or still sitting on the sidelines?

#150 TurnerNation on 05.27.20 at 12:55 pm

138 Ministry of truth ask yourself why are they telling you this now?
Facts are, the lockdowns prevented not one death in old age homes.
The residents are being kept locked in their rooms, no communal visits, no contact or visits from family.
Does this sound like they care?
No it’s a massive distraction, maybe aiming to take over all old age homes. If that’s so..expect more of the same.

#151 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.27.20 at 1:19 pm

#102 Sail Away on 05.26.20 at 9:41 pm sez:

“#97 Marco on 05.26.20 at 9:05 pm
#85

Now I own a 2 acre plot (no mortgage) with a nice house and a new younger wife.

—————

You own a new younger wife? You own?

—————

Must’ve sold the other one.”
————————————————–
But how could one be so thoughtless
To try and handle
Less than two…

But that’s alright
Ya it’s alright………

#152 MF on 05.27.20 at 1:23 pm

#142 IHCTD9 on 05.27.20 at 11:23 am

Wrong.

Of course the source country of immigrants changes over time. That’s always been the case.

The total number of people coming to Canada has actually increased.

60 years ago we had immigrants coming from war torn Europe, then it switched to parts of the former ussr, then Asia and so on.

You mentioned China. First off Chinese immigration actually increased from 2010-2015, and has remained constant the last few years. Not everyone becomes a citizen, but they can still be counter an immigrant. Part of the reason why Chinese immigration has held steady is china’s own rise yes, but part of it is also the language barrier.

New immigrants don’t care about some political party, some temporary leader’s policies, or useless worries like taxes and debt. That’s reserved for the first world whiners and complainers on this pathetic blog who don’t understand that these are worthless generic complaints. People come for stability and freedom, fresh air, space, healthcare and schooling.

MF

#153 IHCTD9 on 05.27.20 at 2:03 pm

#152 MF on 05.27.20 at 1:23 pm
#142 IHCTD9 on 05.27.20 at 11:23 am

Wrong.
——

Dude, serious question. Not trying to be a dick.

Do you have some kind of reading comprehension issues? Maybe a mild case of RCD?

How could you possibly read me citing citizenship rates and think I was talking about current overall immigration numbers?

You made the exact same mistakes when I cited intraprovincial migration stats a while back.

Just sayin. Curious because it keeps happening over and over…

#154 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.27.20 at 2:09 pm

In case anyone was wondering where those words came from. Great Texas blues song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv4B0xK8rNs

#155 Don Guillermo on 05.27.20 at 3:34 pm

117 WUL on 05.26.20 at 11:06 pm

Curiously, I was in a liquor emporium the other day in Fort Mac. My car knows the way there without AI devices. The quite young lady working there was from India and she was as bedazzling as the stock on the shelves. So, I chatted with her. She came here alone and left all family back home. She is university educated. I said to her, jokingly, “So, you must love winter.” She said she did! She grew weary of +45 degree Celsius temps.
****************************************
WUL, Thanks for your perspectives from Ft.Mac. I lived there for a couple in the early 80’s. I was a contractor to Syncrude and was provided company housing in Abasands. I enjoyed the comradery both at work and after work with the young hard-working people that the community attracted and it was an incredible resume builder for us all.
A few years later I landed my first EPC job with Partec Lavalin in Calgary (thanks mostly to that part of my resume). This gave me another level of experience that led me to many great international projects. I always credit Ft. Mac and Syncrude for leading into the next phase of my career.
I drove by my original Partec Lavalin office building this morning and there was a sign up saying “Cannabis shop coming soon”. What was once a great international engineering office will now be a store selling pot. Well played Canada!

#156 Phylis on 05.27.20 at 7:40 pm

Hmmmm, 156. Maybe peak comment has passed and we can begin the return to normalcy.

#157 Ministry of truth on 05.27.20 at 8:01 pm

#150 TurnerNation on 05.27.20 at 12:55 pm
—-
You are barking at the wrong tree !

#158 maxx on 05.27.20 at 8:12 pm

@ #134

Where did he go? Not there any more……hmmm…

#159 James on 05.28.20 at 9:52 am

President Donald Trump aka “Twitty Bird” is apparently going announce an executive order against social media companies on Thursday, only days after Twitter labeled two of his tweets “potentially misleading.” The draft executive order being primed by the Trump administration seeks to curtail the power of large social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter by endeavoring to reinterpret a crucial 1996 law that protects websites and tech companies from lawsuits. Trump has upped his war with tech companies as they tussle with the mounting problem of misinformation on social media. The President habitually accuses sites of censoring conservative speech. This will be interesting as the White House could quickly find itself mired in legal and constitutional inquiries as the White House pushes the limits of its authority. Free Speech does not essentially mean you can blatantly paint falsehoods in the media and not be countered or corrected with facts. That is why media fact check stories and collaborate them with others to verify the truth before putting pen to paper.

#160 Bob Dog on 05.28.20 at 11:53 am

A friend just sold his Toronto condo for 700k to some halfwit JavaScript kiddy web developer. Bought it 8 years ago for 400k. He’s moving to Austin Texas to work for Apple. Smart boy.

I haven’t been to Toronto in years. Has the quality of life in Toronto improved that much over 8 years?

#161 SniffingYogaFarts on 05.28.20 at 12:22 pm

“the terrifying sight of realtors in pale blue spandex”

LOL, Forget all the great, free, financial advice, it’s these little gems sprinkled among this blog that keep me coming back!

#162 You are wrong on 05.28.20 at 12:39 pm

Nobody ever seems to notice that the long bond has generated a 25-per-cent total return in 2020. We’ll keep that our little secret

David Rosenberg in yesterday’s Financial Post

This is a capital gain. Not interest.

#163 tkid on 05.28.20 at 1:05 pm

#149 I got out 50% before the crash. Got back in, and now I’m thinking about getting out again.

I think the majority of gains have already been made, and it’s only the daytraders keeping the markets up. Dunno if that beats a balanced portfolio as Garth has recommended and holding.