Last chance?

Would you list your house during a pandemic – when people leap off sidewalks from each other and hide behind masks?

Nah. Most folks are taking a pass. That’s why the number of active listings in all markets has dropped and, in some places, plunged. In the GTA, for example, new offerings in April crashed 64%. Active listings of over 18,000 this time last year have fallen to ten thousand now, down 41%. Lots of those are germy, yucky, have-to-ride-an-elevator condos. The number of detached homes available in traditional demand areas is puny. So anyone brave enough to list is likely to score multiple offers, since it only takes a few dozen people in a city of six million to push values.

This is why sales have tanked in the midst of our worst-ever economic contraction, yet average prices have held steady. The question is, where next? Are buyers who pay pre-virus prices (or more) smart? Or is this a residential death wish?

First, it’s probably a great time to sell your house. Once restrictions start to lift and people feel more confident they’re not going to die after buying veggies at Loblaws, listings will erupt. Yes, many showings will still be via FaceTime or virtual tours, but that’s the new normal.

How do we square this with the dire words (reported here yesterday) coming from CMHC boss Evan Siddall?

Easy. Siddall has his eye on the larger economy, average household finances, employment prospects, debt and a growing aversion to risk on the part of lenders. None of that is good for real estate. So while in some urban hoods demand for decent places on good streets will flourish, the overall picture is dark. Bloomberg’s latest survey of economists, for example, is downright scary – a contraction of 41% taking place in Canada. The last time this happened? Yeah, never.

Inflation is negative. Falling gas prices helped drag it down, but weak demand is the real culprit. Millions of people are collecting CERB, at home in their skivvies playing with their kids. They’re not driving, shopping, eating out, getting their hair done or buying sneakers.

Look at interest rates, which are a proxy for economic activity, growth and desire for capital. Mortgages have just fallen below two per cent, with three-year fixed at 1.99% and variables at 1.95% from a variety of lenders. But this is not 2016, and buck-ninety-nine home loan prices won’t inflame a buying wave, not with 14% unemployment and a million families unable to make mortgage payments.

Also, check out small businesses in your neck of the woods. Most are still closed. Many are worried. The CFIB says 55% of the self-employed believe they won’t be able to make June rent, despite the government’s loan and lease-relief schemes. Ottawa is being asked to dump even more free money into this sector. The airlines are a disaster. Most hotels are still shut. Restaurants have no idea how they can survive in an age of social distancing.

RBC says it agrees with Evan Siddall and minimum down payments for houses will have to rise above 5%. “we think there is a reasonable chance that higher minimum down payments may happen, but if it does, the magnitude and timing are unclear, especially since any change might further weaken the economy or at the very least is likely to prolong a recovery in housing market activity…”Capital Economics said Thursday that falling rents – the result of less immigration and job devastation – pose a real threat to real estate values as investors cash out.

Meanwhile the hardest-hit demographic in this Covid world is the young – people sub-30. Unemployment in this cohort is now north of 20%, and traditionally first-time buyers have accounted for about half of all the real estate sales in the nation. Even without a hike in the minimum down payment amount, it’s going to take a while – years – before we see the kids qualifying for mortgages.

These are some of the reasons CMHC says real estate values may drop up to 18% in coming months, while other forecasters warn of a 30% plop. Relatively few Canadians have been killed by this wave of the virus, but we sure offed the economy. Main Street will take a lot longer than Bay Street to get back on its feet, and until then real estate stays confusing. Many people will look at demand overwhelming supply in certain pockets, and be completely fooled.

This is a seller’s market. Briefly. Don’t blow it.

199 comments ↓

#1 Owe Canada on 05.21.20 at 1:23 pm

(the current crisis) “tells you the importance of getting your fiscal house in order . . . ideally, you would go into an unexpected shock like this with a much stronger fiscal posture.”

Jerome Powell, Chair U.S. Federal Reserve (April 29, 2020)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/04/29/fed-will-leave-rates-at-zero-as-powell-vows-continued-aggressive-action-to-prop-up-economy/#3acaec61557d

#2 Alex on 05.21.20 at 1:41 pm

So I just got off the phone with my advisor and he tells me that Brookfield Asset Management is doing something interesting in these troubled times. For those tenants unable to pay rent, Brookfield is offering to accept equity as a form of payment. Risky perhaps but an interesting approach as it means Brookfield gets equity at lower prices and it only has to forego a month’s rent. Apparently Brookfield is sitting on a lot of cash too so they appear to be well positioned to run this marathon of a recovery.

I have to add, and I know this must grate on the nerves of those of who manage their own portfolios, that the work done by the advisor has saved my butt (mostly from myself). My portfolio has mostly recovered, and the advisor was able to pick up some great deals along the way, which will in turn mean that I will do better coming out of this (probably but nothing is guaranteed).

While the approach of my advisor is not exactly the same as our esteemed blog host, he of the rippled ties, snazzy abs, coiffed intellect, and razor sharp dog, it is fairly close. I am going to be OK, I sleep well, and what I pay this advisor is worth every penny (a lot of pennies actually).

#3 BrockOutWest on 05.21.20 at 1:45 pm

See, it’s a seller’s market if you have a home. I’m one of those old millennials, and I couldn’t afford a house 8 years ago, because of student college loans and a used car loan in Edmonton.

I have a condo, 3 kids and while I can make the payments, what happens after I sell the condo? Won’t make money from the sale because of market saturation. So I rent, paying somebody else’s mortgage.

I did everything society told me to do, and I got smacked for it. So color me cynical about ever owning a home. Or retiring.

#4 Sold Out on 05.21.20 at 1:57 pm

Home prices are an illusion; sales in the bottom third of the market have dropped off a cliff, likely due to greater job losses in lower paid employment.

People who can afford homes in the upper reaches of the market have higher paying jobs that can be done remotely, and are less likely to be affected by job losses.

As starter home prices drop, talking heads will claim affordability in the entry-level market is improving, ignoring the fact that credit is tightening for these prospective buyers.

The RE market lives and dies by the vagaries of first-time buyers; move-up buyers can’t move up if there’s no first-time buyers, and there’s only so many cash buyers unaffected by the lack of liquidity.

Don’t listen to shills who bury the truth with sales mix sleight of hand.

#5 Captain Uppa on 05.21.20 at 2:21 pm

My five year 2.49% mortgage is up for renewal in August 2021.

I am wondering if I should strike an even lower new
mortgage sooner than later.

#6 Freedom 57(I was a slow learner) on 05.21.20 at 2:24 pm

#3 BrockOutWest on 05.21.20 at 1:45 pm
I did everything society told me to do, and I got smacked for it. So color me cynical about ever owning a home. Or retiring.
—————————————————-
Glad you aren’t blaming Boomers. It’s not our fault a lot of millennials don’t own houses. It’s the result of the economy and government mismanagement. Just like the great depression destroyed a lot of people’s lives for a decade and more. My grandparents never owned a house or a car. Couldn’t afford either. They couldn’t find a job, never mind a decent and steady job.
Sure things eventually picked up, but then WW II started.

Nothing wrong with renting. You’re farther ahead in most cases. Be cynical, you’re entitled to. Just don’t blame the boomers. What doesn’t kill you, just makes you stronger.

#7 Piano_Man87 on 05.21.20 at 2:30 pm

#3 BrockOutWest on 05.21.20 at 1:45 pm
See, it’s a seller’s market if you have a home. I’m one of those old millennials, and I couldn’t afford a house 8 years ago, because of student college loans and a used car loan in Edmonton.

I have a condo, 3 kids and while I can make the payments, what happens after I sell the condo? Won’t make money from the sale because of market saturation. So I rent, paying somebody else’s mortgage.

I did everything society told me to do, and I got smacked for it. So color me cynical about ever owning a home. Or retiring.

—–

I guess the lesson of this story is: never do anything!

#8 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 2:30 pm

Anyone who doesn’t think this will impact RE prices in the key Canadian markets is missing the narrative completely:


‘They are killing Hong Kong’: China plans sweeping law changes to assert control
China works to rewrite the ‘one country, two systems’ framework that has allowed Hong Kong a level of autonomy for the past 23 years

The Great Hong Kong Surge, Part III.

And I welcome you all. Plenty of space in this empty, insular land, come on over and bring those wheelbarrows of cash, that entrepreneurial spirit and those deeply ingrained democratic beliefs–we are badly in need of more of each in Kanuckistan.

#2 Alex on 05.21.20 at 1:41 pm
While the approach of my advisor is not exactly the same as our esteemed blog host, he of the rippled ties, snazzy abs, coiffed intellect, and razor sharp dog, it is fairly close. I am going to be OK, I sleep well, and what I pay this advisor is worth every penny (a lot of pennies actually).

You need to pay an advisor to buy low and sell high–and you think you’re ‘doing’ something right? To each their own I guess.


#3 BrockOutWest on 05.21.20 at 1:45 pm
I did everything society told me to do, and I got smacked for it. So color me cynical about ever owning a home. Or retiring.

Wow, self pity much? Never do anything ‘society’ (by which you probably mean your mommy) tells you to. This is a key lesson, and the sooner you learn it the sooner you’re on your way to becoming a man, and not a man-child. Also, don’t blame others for your inaction, inability, or ignorance.


#4 Sold Out on 05.21.20 at 1:57 pm
Home prices are an illusion; sales in the bottom third of the market have dropped off a cliff, likely due to greater job losses in lower paid employment.

Riiight, and in which market exactly? Here it’s anything under 700k (which is the bottom third of our market) that’s getting multiple offers still.

Ok, I think I just earned a second morning lockdown latte:

1. Boil water
2. Put 1 heaping spoonful of instant coffee into cup. Add sugar if desired (not recommended)
3. Pour 1/4 cup boiling water into cup, mix with a fork
4. Pour 1/3 cup of cold milk into a jar
5. Tighten lid
6. Shake it like you mean it for 1 min
7. Remove lid
8. Pop into microwave for 33 seconds
9. While waiting, pour another 1/4 cup boiling water into coffee cup and keep mixing
10. Ding! Remove jar, spoon stabilized mix froth onto coffee; top up with warm milk.
11. Sit and sip with a smug look on your face, pondering the next dirt bike you’ll buy

You’re welcome.

#9 Mehling on 05.21.20 at 2:36 pm

https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/family-finance/millennial-money/this-millennial-is-banking-his-cerb-cheques-in-the-hopes-of-finally-getting-a-place-of-his-own

“This millennial is banking his CERB cheques in the hopes of finally getting a place of his own”

One can’t make this up. Please run for PM Garth.

#10 dave on 05.21.20 at 2:44 pm

So when is the window to buy Garth? September till next spring 2021?

I have been holding off since my divorce in 2016

#11 Leftover on 05.21.20 at 2:45 pm

We’re in limbo for the moment. Agents are stoking the idea that the market is roaring back with multiple offers, never mind that those offers are low-balls, if they even exist at all. What agents really mean is their incomes have cratered and they need deals to eat.

Sell now if you can, good advice. By September things will be different. Anyone I know that has any money is sitting on it, knowing how deflation actually works.

#12 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 2:46 pm

Only reason the US markets are rising is because of the FANG stocks. They have taken over a large position in the S&P500.

So the rising market isn’t a recovery, its a disruption. Estimates are that only 50-80% of jobs will ever return. You can apply that same ration to the businesses that will shutter forever.

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 2:47 pm

@#253 faron
“I’m not arguing….”

+++

Apparently you missed “irony” when the stork was handing it out……..

@#258 faron’
I dont know why your referring to Michael Moore”
+++
Your argument ( oops sorry, ranting diatribe) about the military and recruitment centers near low income neighborhoods rang a bell.

“Fahrenheit 911” ring a bell?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yg-be2r7ouc

Oh, right, you dont like Michael Moore…….

#14 BillyBob on 05.21.20 at 2:52 pm

#107 the Jaguar on 05.20.20 at 5:30 pm
@#79 BillyBob on 05.20.20 at 3:33 pm

As you pointed out some time ago an Ex-Pat can own real estate in Canada but if the intent is to rent 25% tax on rental income comes into play and it needs to be ‘arms length’. Guess it depends on whether financing on the property will be sought, how the property will be registered, and especially what the tax treatment would be and ‘for whom’ on disposition of the asset.

===================================================

hi Jag,

The intent would be to have the resident sibling own the property. The hypothetical expat sibling would only supply the capital. Just curious what the rules are about gifting, especially in the amounts sufficient to buy a property.

Said resident sibling could easily get a mortgage if required, government medical worker. Although ideally entire sale would be cash.

It just seems that there could be a perfect storm approaching in 6-12 months of softening property markets and low interest rates all at once. But the hypothetical expat sibling isn’t keen to pay a foreign owner tax for a property they don’t hold legal title to.

#15 the jaguar on 05.21.20 at 2:54 pm

What an adorable creature. Go Orange Cat go! Bet he is named Trump.

#16 Pension expert on 05.21.20 at 2:58 pm

The same house in midtown sold for $280,000 in 1994 went for $2,100,000 last Fall or an over 700% increase.Even if the price comes off 40%it will still be 1,250,000 well over 4 times the 1994 price.Prices are nuts in Toronto and there are lots of places in Canada you can get double the house for 1/4 the price.Low or negative interest rates mean squat–ask the Japanese,their home values and stock markets are 1/2 what they were in 1990(30 years ago)This is a sellers market for sure.When government starts buying up large parts of the stock market it will time to take a serious look at that as an investment too.

#17 calgary rip off on 05.21.20 at 3:01 pm

Still nothing exciting happening in Calgary. Houses on my street in NW are still almost half a million.

Just today my wife texted me saying the front two windows are leaking again. I didn’t respond as I don’t know what the proper response is. After the home inspector missed the upside down flashing surrounding the chimney(2011) every time it would rain water would come into the main floor bathroom, that is now fixed. There’s lots of other things wrong with the place, builder grade windows, deck has a 2×4 with a bit of a gap, say 10 cm in 2 places, Berber carpet in the basement needs replacing after the cats, 3 mm dings in the drywall in the basement. Normal stuff. Other than that, nothing major. Last year both hot water tanks were replaced and my wife happened to be standing next to them when they went and water main was shut off in less than a minute, zero damage. I was one of the fortunate ones that married a smart wife rather than most of the dumb ones out there, only drawback is more challenging mentally to deal with her.

Seems unlikely with the economy in Alberta that will ever get the money back, however not dealing with a landlord who has no rent controls is priceless. And the delusion that oil in sand will somehow support everything continues for Mr. Kenney and his ship of fools. Conservatism is ok if there actually is a plan to keep the wheels turning.

It is very amazing seeing that people in Calgary think their housing costs are justified. People here are delusional. Calgary is really like Siberian Russia for climate. Houses here should be at most $180K on a 1 acre lot. The land is worthless and cannot grow crops on it. I only paid $400k+ because rent was the same as the mortgage and I wasn’t about to retire anytime soon or move.

Luckily I have a hospital job(for now) to which I am interrogated every day at the front door. Seems likely they will start using rectal thermometers soon for the next step in CCP virus prevention. I do wonder about my 50+ year old coworkers that are female that often are 37 degrees or slightly more by skin temperature reading at the forehead. Are they ovulating?

In other news apparently Shi Zhengli the woman responsible for this Covid mess has gone missing. Apparently her Colleague Wang Yanyi was selling lab animals at the 4 level Wuhan lab to the Wuhan wet market. Zhengli was warned by a French virologist in 2014 not to conduct covid research as it would be difficult to contain if it got out. And now the cat is out of the bag.

One of the cardiologists I work with always asks me how my mortgage is. Really I don’t give a flying. The main thing is that I have running water, a working furnace, a place to sleep and edible food and I can exercise. All these people complaining about all the other little variables have no clue of how easy current life is compared to say 1820.

The reality is that soon things likely will get more exciting. Cameras tracking your every move. No paper cash only credit cards. Big government tracking the internet. A pay check for everyone, supported by those that work. And lastly 50-60% taxes to support all the “free money” initiated by the CCP virus.

Right now I am sitting in one of the hospital rooms and due to the rain one of the labs is shutdown because the ceiling is leaking. As the guy standing on the ladder working says every year around this time when things thaw out the room starts leaking(the hospital was built 1967). Why hasn’t it been fixed staff ask. No money maybe?

Do I qualify for free money from Trudeau too?

#18 akashic record on 05.21.20 at 3:05 pm

Managing director of IMF suggests banks should halt dividends.

Not a buyer market. Don’t blow it.

#19 FreeBird on 05.21.20 at 3:14 pm

To The States, or any one of them, or any city of The States, Resist much, Obey little, Once unquestioning obedience, once fully enslaved, Once fully enslaved, no nation, race, city, of this earth, ever afterward resumes its liberty.

– Walt Whitman

“…don’t do what people tell you. Don’t believe what the government tells you to believe…test it against your own instincts.”

https://www.wnyc.org/story/85426-galway-kinnell-reads-walt-whitman/

#20 Stan Brooks on 05.21.20 at 3:20 pm

Real estate in top bubbly markets here – GTA and Vancouver will decline between 70 and 80 %. Maybe more.

It did decline 70 % in Japan, never to recover 30 years later:

1. At times where there was no virus
2. At times when world economy and Japan’s export was rising steady
3. At times Japan had huge manufacturing and top world companies
4. Despite zero rates
5. Japan is 120 million on 2 % of our territory.
6. People there have plenty of savings.
7. There were always plenty of jobs in Japan in these decades of deleveraging.
8. Real estate is still dirty word in Japan.

We have none of this.

Instead we have:
1. Record debt – private and public that will only get worse.
2. 2 decades of piling on debt instead of deleveraging
3. no savings, no manufacturing, no real export economy.
4. rates at 0.25 % (zero point twenty five)
5. no word top companies
6. at times of global uncertainty due to the virus
7. at times of automation and outsourcing.
8 Japan never had 18 % (or should it be 25 %, with over 8 millions applying for assistance) unemployment rate.

The prices in Buffalo and Detroit are the closest to what we will get to, even Chicago is an overstretch for our true economic reality.

That might even prove to be optimistic.

Don’t believe me? Just watch it.

Whoever sells his house first will be the big winner.
Of course the herd will wait for the last moment and amateur investors will be purged at the rock bottom prices one way or another.

The best way to sell you house in the next decade or two will be tomorrow.

Watching the culling in the herd in real time with the popcorn at hand.

Remember folks, you wanted this.

Cheers,

#21 FreeBird on 05.21.20 at 3:20 pm

When liberty goes out of a place, it is not the first to
go, nor the second or third to go,
It waits for all the rest to go—it is the last.

-Walt Whitman

https://whitmanarchive.org/published/LG/1871/clusters/190

#22 Oracle of Ottawa on 05.21.20 at 3:21 pm

I just heard on CBC radio this morning that there’s never been a pandemic that didn’t have a second wave. Food for thought.

#23 Ace Goodheart on 05.21.20 at 3:28 pm

RE: “So anyone brave enough to list is likely to score multiple offers, since it only takes a few dozen people in a city of six million to push values.”

This is actually not true.

We are currently seeing the situation in our area (Bloor-West) where houses sit on the market, and end up with a single, conditional offer, for less than asking.

Upon expiry of the condition, the house either sells for under ask, or it gets re-listed.

This, is bizarre. We have not seen this, ever. Usually, a home sale in Bloor-West is like the opening of a trendy new club. You have an open house, and an offer date. You have lines of cars up and down the street, and you have “bully bids” at far over asking, that either get accepted, or not.

You have 20-30 offers landing on the table, all over-ask, and the seller then refuses them all and re-lists for more, having a second open house and a new offer date.

Now, as I said, the house will sit for 2-3 weeks, with no offers, and then someone will lowball with conditions, which the seller then accepts.

This, as I said, is crazy. The single lowball conditional offer puts the buyer firmly in the driver’s seat. The seller cannot sell to anyone else, but the buyer can walk away if they decide not to waive the condition.

That is what is happening right now in Bloor West. And it is happening with very few houses for sale.

#24 Dolce Vita on 05.21.20 at 3:32 pm

If anything like 1982, aggregate home prices dropped 20-30% depending where you lived in Canada and unemployment +10% persisted 4 years and home price recovery began after 1986.

So ya, seller market now as prices go on the way down to a buyers market.

Have to act fast though:

https://i.imgur.com/rxgtfIj.png

#25 Dave on 05.21.20 at 3:33 pm

B.C.’s population expands 14 times faster through immigration than through “natural growth,” ie. births (Source: Steve Saretsky, Vancouver realtor / housing analyst)

#26 Stan Brooks on 05.21.20 at 3:36 pm

Ah, and Japan, the world’s 2nd economy at the time could not save their housing while our geniuses in the 10th world economy (for now…) will ‘not allow housing to decline’ after destroying the economy with disastrous policies in 1st place.

Keep dreaming folks, keep dreaming.

Cheers,

#27 Andrewski on 05.21.20 at 3:38 pm

Neighbours bought a home with zero conditions! They have no mortgage on their current home. Their home has been listed for a little over 1 week. They’ve had a handful of showings & 1 lowball offer which they rejected. Yikes.

#28 Linda on 05.21.20 at 3:40 pm

Anyone who actually has a SFD property & who can’t make the mortgage payments (hence, deferral) should list & hopefully sell asap, before prices drop. Shed that albatross before it is too late. ‘But we have to live somewhere’. Yes – & rentals are poised to both become more available AND affordable. The early bird gets the worm & all that.

Is it a royal pain to list, stage & show your home? Absolutely. However, if one is already ‘at home’ due to Covid related layoffs no time like the present to take care of business. Ditto for scouting out rental digs or arranging to move if one’s property sells. The idea is to salvage as much as one can. Thinking this situation will be over & life back to normal – whatever that might look like – by the end of 2020 is not realistic for most.

#29 Alberta Ed on 05.21.20 at 3:49 pm

All those millennials staggering under university and car loans will soon discover that Zorro — the dude wearing the virtue-posturing black mask — has just borrowed several hundred billion dollars on the national credit card, and they’re going to have to pay off that, too.

#30 YVR Renter on 05.21.20 at 3:50 pm

Hubby & I graduated with shiny new degrees in 1982. Not a job to be found anywhere. Took me almost a year to find decent work, hubby had to take a sales job up in Thunder Bay, then it was 24 hours drive north (we were in K-W). That’s desperate! You buck up, shut up, and do it. No government bailouts or CERB in 1982. You work overtime, scrimp, save, and eat a lot of cheap hotdogs. I bartended/served a lot, while looking for a “career” job. Took a job I hated for 6 years. But it came with benefits.

Managed to buy first house late 1984, had to have 25% down or pay massive CMHC insurance. Back then, an old renovated home in a rundown area was $70,600 – won in a bidding war. By 1988 sold it for $145,000, bought a shiny little new house, away from student party houses. Doubled our money. In the gogo 80’s, lots of people “investing” in these new things called condo’s. Speculate, get rich! We couldn’t afford to, so happy in hindsight! They all lost their shirts, condos tanked, and there wasn’t a crane over the GTA for many, many years.

Continued to work overtime, scrimp, save, drive wrecks. By 1993, 2 kids, new house had gone up about $40,000…then the RE crash hit. Hubby got a great job offer in Kelowna, who doesn’t want to live in a beautiful, sunny part of Canada to raise the kiddies, escape big industrial city grind. Took a while to get an offer on the house, lowered price twice. Our buyers were moving up from a townhouse…and simply could not sell it! We had to lower our price $7,500 in a last ditch deal to get them to close so we wouldn’t be all over the country. Help them bridge 2 properties.

Bought a Kelowna “special” house for $222,000. Put lots of renos in it with our our blood, sweat and tears, worked our butts off. Hubby promoted to job in Orange County, CA in 1997. Tough time selling ,lost $40,000. Houses did not go up all through the 90’s and early 2000’s. So get used to it, it happens! Nobody bailed us out, paid us our lost equity. Suck it up, cupcake.

Interesting, Orange County was bankrupt at the time. Everybody foreclosing on their house, signs everywhere. We rented. Our next door neighbour friends were splitting up, made a deal with the bank. They were so deeply underwater with rapidlyly falling values and a huge HELOC , bank said just give us the house keys and get out, they did. LOTS of that in 1997/8 in CA. That’s how Arnie Schwarzenneger got rick, vultching all that decimated Orange Country RE.

Fast forward. Moved to Vancouver for another hubby job in 2016, We’re barely lowest of 1%-ers. NO WAY could we buy a house here, and condo’s started at $1500/sq ft with smug selling agents checking out your shoes and car you drove up in. For a concrete shoebox. Disgusting. Those sellers are living in their Audis now, until they’re repossessed. Thank God we didn’t buy and invested it – got the greatest market run up ever then moved mostly to cash. We rent, and our rent keeps going down, we negotiate well and see the high end rental market has really hit a wall in Van. Our building was half empty this fall – the only people who would pay the rents were people coming straight from China (via Quebec), and they are lovely, quiet neighbours.

RE has to crash hugely, as it was built on a house of debt cards and flipping, it is nothing but a bubble. Since when is a moldy 1400 sq ft, 1928 teardown with original everything on a 30′ lot worth $3.5 million here in Dunbar? How did land prices get so stupid? Who can possibly pay for that – and it’ all over the city, even East Van is ridiculous. So many of the houses here aren’t even nice houses, we wonder what the city planners were smoking with the hodge podge of ugly houses and condo buildings. We walk by at least 10 empty dilapidated, run down dumps with untended yards and grass a foot high just on our neighbourhood walk. Sinful, when people couldn’t find rentals and home prices were so high, just a waste built on a corrupt system. All the houses we looked at to rent were exactly like that, with offshore owners, and a RE agent telling us it was newly renovated as we came in the door. What? Maybe in 1958! How stupid do you think we are? Reached the point if we smelled mold on the doorstep we walked away.

Real estate goes up, it goes down for longer. Trust me we’ve seen it go down plenty, or sit stagnant for at least a decade more than once. Seen a few bubbles burst already. IQ tests are not a requirement for people buying real estate, but they should be. Greed has been the requirement – the banks, the realtors, the speculators, the foreign buyers, money launderers, the amateurs looking for a get rich quick scheme.

Keep your head down, work hard, crunch the numbers, and stop the government bailouts! Live within your means. Make it 10-20% down to buy a property again to weed out the fragile buyers. Let the prices fall back to earth. It is all cyclical.

In my next scintillating post, will tell you about our GTA 10 years where houses never rose in value, 1999-2009. Oh and prices actually fell off a cliff in 2008.

#31 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 3:50 pm

Still no dividend cut Garth?

https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/canadian-banks-to-see-q2-earnings-drop-36

#32 Leigh on 05.21.20 at 3:52 pm

This is the year I sadly realized how much I had overestimated people’s intelligence and common sense.

#33 Dave on 05.21.20 at 3:55 pm

DELETED

#34 JB on 05.21.20 at 4:01 pm

Nah. Most folks are taking a pass. That’s why the number of active listings in all markets has dropped and, in some places, plunged. In the GTA, for example, new offerings in April crashed 64%. Active listings of over 18,000 this time last year have fallen to ten thousand now, down 41%. Lots of those are germy, yucky, have-to-ride-an-elevator condos. The number of detached homes available in traditional demand areas is puny.
…………………………………………………………….
Ha ha……….There is no way I would ever buy a condo not even as an investment. I don’t even want to enter a condo building let along take the elevator up. No thanks and the idea of ten or twenty flights of stairs doesn’t much look like fun only to run into somebody cough up a lung on the way down in a stagnant stairwell.
Nope

#35 dogman01 on 05.21.20 at 4:02 pm

#3 BrockOutWest on 05.21.20 at 1:45 pm

“I did everything society told me to do, and I got smacked for it. So color me cynical about ever owning a home. Or retiring.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

The Scarcity Mindset wave that is landing in Canada.

This will be a major change in society’s psychology vs the experience of the Baby Boomers.

As a GenX I graduated into a bad recession, soon realized we had two workforces, a “Baby Boom” set of Jobs, with benefits, decent pay, decent Job security and often a Pension, at older established companies or Government. But they were not hiring when I started out and that ladder was having the bottom rungs cut out of it.

Small Business and new industries was all that was available , most of my peers ended up in IT. Baby Boomers could rarely “do IT” and IT paid decently in the late 90’s. Leveraged that to get a career with an old school Boomer employer.

But that lived experience in my mid 20’s of a Scarcity Mindset, stuck with me; “there is just winners and losers, and don’t get caught on the wrong side of that line. “

Entire future generation of Canadians job quality\wages\standard of living destroyed by House inflation, outsourcing, mass immigration and globalization of the supply chain.
Welcome to a “World Standard of Living” with little financial upward mobility.

#36 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 4:28 pm

There are musing all over the interwebs about big hedge funds and institutional investors bailing out of REITs.

That’s the second shoe to drop on this whole thing.

#37 Stealth on 05.21.20 at 4:28 pm

Good afternoon,

I must say that the blog picture of a cat is by far the best picture so far in 10 years.
Very funny indeed.

Good work.

#38 Welcome to Slurrey on 05.21.20 at 4:30 pm

#30 YVR renter ……… thanks for that post, I look forward to the next one. Its really the last decade here in YVR that has ppl excited about housing, paper millionaires created in those years, so we can all see why everyone is so excited about housing. The fundamentals ( local incomes) , dont support the housing costs, but somehow I see local ppl purchasing their first home here in the price range close to a mill ……. i still dont get it

#39 Faron on 05.21.20 at 4:38 pm

#8 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 2:30 pm

In step 6 of your Latte recipe, does it work if I shake it like a polaroid picture?

#40 Faron on 05.21.20 at 4:41 pm

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 2:47 pm

Apparently you missed “irony” when the stork was handing it out……..

——————-

I blame Alanis. She ruined that and many other things for me.

#41 Rico on 05.21.20 at 4:41 pm

“hid behind masks”
Come on Garth. You can be better.
Wearing a mask is the LEAST you can do to prevent spread of infection. Just wear the mask.

As for the pending real estate drop, there are still way too many people on the sidelines waiting for the drop to buy in. If the drop comes it will be short (6 months, maybe).

#42 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 4:42 pm

Turns out people with money don’t want to pay rent either.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8339375/Wealthy-tenants-SQUATTING-multi-million-dollar-homes-Hamptons.html

#43 Dolce Vita on 05.21.20 at 4:44 pm

Nice to read some people posting about RE history from early on, great reads!

I liked that someone called Trudeau “Zorro” with that black mask, THAT was good. Though, Zorro had a mask over his eyes with a couple of holes, still, I liked the comparison. When I saw that image of Trudeau I did a double take, I was thinking more along the lines of Highway or Cowboy Robber…I like Zorro better.

The more you read, the more you come to realize that 1982 was a cake walk for what will probably happen in 2020.

We’ll have to wait and see how bad it gets.

#44 the Jaguar on 05.21.20 at 4:48 pm

@#14 BillyBob on 05.21.20 at 2:52 pm

If a person wants to gift another person money which would be sufficient to purchase a property without mortgage financing I guess it would be up to the lawyer acting on for the purchaser to review funds to ensure they met Fintrac/Money Laundering legislation requirements. Good question for WUL, or better yet a BC lawyer if I am correct about where your property interest lies………
If any financing comes into play the down payment source would also be scrutinized in a similar manner and non repayable gift confirmation required by the donor, etc. Occupancy would also come up, i.e. classification of a ‘rental/second home’ versus primary residence. Loan to value lower likely in the environment going forward is my guess unless the credit pedigree of the borrower is high profile. Tax treatment on sale/capital gains and vacancy taxes could be an issue depending on location.
Goes without saying that the relationship of trust between family members would need to be undoubted, and I happen to know a few ‘stories’ in this regard. (not good ones).
The one thing I would wonder about would be something called “beneficial ownership’ and how the CRA might view it. Seems like a logical thought to take advantage of bargains that may be coming up, but Canada Revenue Agency likes things on the ‘up and up’, and they are getting much better at following the footprints in the snow. Maybe Garth or the ‘Toronto CA’ blogger knows about that aspect. Interesting opportunities ahead for sure………………

#45 Howard on 05.21.20 at 4:49 pm

Deflation has arrived. First monthly negative CPI change since 2009.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-rate-april-covid-1.5576581

I was going to buy a new laptop but I think I’ll wait.

#46 Figmund Sreud on 05.21.20 at 4:58 pm

Restaurants have no idea how they can survive in an age of social distancing.
______________________

Well, … The Inn at Little Washington sits mannequins at some tables so diners will not feel isolated by coronavirus! It’s true, …

https://www.btimesonline.com/articles/132429/20200521/pictures-of-the-day-may-20-2020.htm

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#47 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 4:59 pm

#20 Stan Brooks on 05.21.20 at 3:20 pm

Real estate in top bubbly markets here – GTA and Vancouver will decline between 70 and 80 %. Maybe more. It did decline 70 % in Japan, never to recover 30 years later:

Why does everyone who compares Canada to Japan ignore so much?

Japan had their own bubble of everything that dwarfed North America, let alone Canada. A parking space in Tokyo worth more than all the RE in Cali, if you recall…

Not apples to apples, more like apples to microbes (Canada being the microbe of course).

What you failed to account for is resources.

Japan has NONE–only people with the ability and desire to innovate and add value. When a bubble built on RE speculation pops in a nation without natural resources, it pops big time–and yet, Japan still has the world’s highest standard of living and life expectancy.

Canada is pretty much the complete opposite. Massive untapped resources–only people willing to complain, sit at home and collect CERB, elect socialists, and smoke dope (a gross generalization but you get the point I hope).

We are a resource power house and the envy of most of the world because of it. We squander it and fail to exploit it, but it’s still all here, all still valuable. Resources rarely experience bubbles and if they do they’re relatively small and when they pop it’s not the end of the economy.

#48 Jerri on 05.21.20 at 4:59 pm

#30 YVR Renter

That was a great read. Informative, true and real.

#49 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 5:00 pm

#253 Faron on 05.21.20 at 1:06 pm
#246 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 12:05 pm

All kinds of criticism, no solutions. Fairly common theme of a certain subset, actually.

—————

Instead of an accusatory implication of a “certain subset” just strap your nuts on and say what you think that subset is.

—————

Sure.

The subset of young people coming from privilege who strongly feel they have a God-given mandate to identify and abolish injustice toward women, minorities and LGBTQ. In order to meet this imperative, they find and expose ‘discrimination’ everywhere. For example:

-The Portland taco shop shamed and ostracized for selling tacos. For shame! Two non-Hispanic women! Cultural appropriation, obviously.
-Non-critical support for any and all MeToo… because women are always right even when the facts may not support their accusations
-Support of Antifa violence, and particularly against reporter Andy Ngo
-Shaming politicians who don’t attend sexually graphic Pride parades verging on pornography

etc…

#50 Lost....but not leased on 05.21.20 at 5:04 pm

Phartzy’s daughter Greta has sure been quite..

Just sayin….

#51 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 5:07 pm

#39 Faron on 05.21.20 at 4:38 pm

#8 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 2:30 pm

In step 6 of your Latte recipe, does it work if I shake it like a polaroid picture?

Only if you’re very, very vigorous about it.

#52 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 05.21.20 at 5:08 pm

My print button is stuck in the on position.

The I.T. Guys that used to take care of me are at home collecting CERB, smoking legal weed, and won’t come back to fix me.

But don’t worry it’ll be okay, Justin’s going to prepare a place for me.

#53 Leftover on 05.21.20 at 5:08 pm

#30 YVR Renter

Awesome post, could have written a duplicate with only a few changes (no posting in the OC, oh well).

1982 was a good barometer and at least the free market prevailed as interest rates rose and house prices cratered. This time? Not so sure, different variables.

CAD isn’t a reserve currency and our debt loads are ludicrous – rates might go up as the Canadian government struggles to sell bonds a year from now. Aieee! Godzilla! Run!

Moldy Dunbar houses are probably the real source of Covid-19.

#54 Do we have all the facts on 05.21.20 at 5:09 pm

It costs the prospective seller of a house nothing to list so if they were planning to relocate to Nova Scotia at some point in the future why not give it the old college try. You never know.

Most prospective buyers who are not under pressure to find a new home would be wise to wait and see what the next few months bring.

The low interest rate lure used in the past to stimulate demand for housing only served to inflate prices. Surely buyers have become wise to that gimmick. Remember car loans with O interest where $25,000 cars were marked up to $30,000 to be repaid without interest over 7 years. Such good deals.

Prices are definitely headed down so read the metrics not the hype about multiple offers and sales at 2019 prices.

#55 Dolce Vita on 05.21.20 at 5:09 pm

#22 Oracle of Ottawa

Ya, I think it’s here already here with 108MM people in lockdown in NE China. Well, at least they can have just as many doing contact tracing if they want to.

Still, nothing from there as WHO denied entry to their country, news reports all from days ago. They claim 80 or so infected, I kind of doubt that.

Wuhan had a population of 11MM, recent lgG antibody studies show 5% infected in a population (Spain, NY smaller study with up to 14% in town and of town 5%) thus, use conservative 5%:

11MM x 5% = 550,000 infected in that city alone.

They counted 84,000 for the entire country so not so sure I believe their 80 or so infected number this time around.

Now, take 108MM x 5%…ya, that’s a LOT of infections.

Hopefully, the 2nd wave genie not out of the bottle and not as deadly as the Spanish Flu 2nd wave was…but you know, my gut says it probably will be as bad.

…and you watch places in the US, UK, Spain with people frolicking on beaches as if nothing has happened…all I see instead are C-19 petri dishes.

Anway, Mother Nature will let us know us soon enough one way or the other. Give it a COUPLE OF WEEKS…

(e.g., the geniuses in Milano 2 weeks ago decided to frolic in their Navigli area en masse, cases have gone up in the last few days…imagine my surprise).

…A COUPLE OF WEEKS.

#56 Lambchop on 05.21.20 at 5:14 pm

#5 Captain Uppa on 05.21.20 at 2:21 pm
My five year 2.49% mortgage is up for renewal in August 2021.

I am wondering if I should strike an even lower new
mortgage sooner than later.

___________________

Wondering this myself, really leaning towards “yes”.
So many uncertainties in the world right now, and who knows what insanities Trudeau will come up with by September.
I think it might be worth paying the penalty, for 5 years of peace of mind.

#57 WFH Forever! on 05.21.20 at 5:14 pm

Facebook to permanently allow to working from home. Looks like they just found out that it actually works!

https://www.theverge.com/facebook/2020/5/21/21265699/facebook-remote-work-shift-workforce-permanent-covid-19-mark-zuckerberg-interview

https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-to-shift-permanently-toward-more-remote-work-after-coronavirus-11590081300

https://www.cnet.com/news/facebooks-zuckerberg-says-employees-will-be-able-to-work-from-home-permanently/

#58 Lee on 05.21.20 at 5:15 pm

People will not give their houses away in Toronto and the GTA. They will wait as long as it takes for the economy to come back.

#59 Howard on 05.21.20 at 5:25 pm

#35 dogman01 on 05.21.20 at 4:02 pm

Can’t disagree with anything you’ve stated there. I would add that the transfer of wealth from the productive male-dominated private sector to the unproductive female-dominated public sector is another factor in your list of culprits that have destroyed our standard of living.

Just think of all those giggling ditzes jumping up and down as T2 made his inaugural walk as PM towards the government buildings in November 2015 as you watch your taxes rise year after year to pay them.

#60 Bobby Bittman on 05.21.20 at 5:28 pm

#26 Stan Brooks

The Japanese had and still have a ZERO immigration policy. There….solved your mystery.

#61 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 5:40 pm

#19 FreeBird on 05.21.20 at 3:14 pm

To The States, or any one of them, or any city of The States, Resist much, Obey little, Once unquestioning obedience, once fully enslaved, Once fully enslaved, no nation, race, city, of this earth, ever afterward resumes its liberty.

– Walt Whitman

“…don’t do what people tell you. Don’t believe what the government tells you to believe…test it against your own instincts.”

————-

I greatly enjoy Walt Whitman. He was a strong, strong supporter of the fledging US government and Union. Such a difference to poetry today which can only mention one’s homeland government with criticism.

His comments above reflect the attitude of the majority at the time, where one never lets the state override their independence.

I also like this:

“Do I contradict myself? Very well, then I contradict myself, I am large, I contain multitudes.”

#62 Lost...but not leased on 05.21.20 at 5:41 pm

Benefits of the plandemic:

That Dentists are overrated and we should go retro with barbers in charge of dental health.

#63 The Greater Hedge on 05.21.20 at 5:44 pm

Second thoughts?

YESTERDAY’S COMMENTS
CMHC says prices will tumble by up to 18% within a year. Well, there you go. It doesn’t get much plainer. I told you so.

TODAY’S COMMENTS
So anyone brave enough to list is likely to score multiple offers. Average prices have held steady. This is a seller’s market. Briefly. Don’t blow it.

CMHC’s comments were related to national prices. My observation was about demand hoods in urban areas with scarce listings. Next time I will use crayon. – Garth

#64 kommykim on 05.21.20 at 5:45 pm

RE: Inflation is negative.

A one month trend is hardly an annual trend. I love how they love to include gasoline prices in this data, but usually exclude it as being too volatile when gasoline prices are spiking.

#65 The real Kip (Ret) on 05.21.20 at 5:49 pm

Two words. Minority government. They’ll be far more likely to loosen rates and rules and juice the housing market than tighten it. Canadians will not default on their houses.

#66 Shawn on 05.21.20 at 5:51 pm

One has to wonder if the Nasdaq will pass the significant 10000 mark while the Canadian economy is still closed?

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 5:52 pm

@#49 Lost the Lease
“Phartzy’s daughter Greta ….”
++++
Now you know why she look’s angry all the time…..

#68 Lead Paint on 05.21.20 at 5:56 pm

A good article on why millennials resent boomers. I’m Gen-X ,so don’t have dog in this fight.

But I have to agree that in aggregate millennials are screwed and boomers have done nothing to show they care about generations that come after them (in contrast to their parents).

https://www.vox.com/2017/12/20/16772670/baby-boomers-millennials-congress-debt

M47ON

#69 Party On Garth on 05.21.20 at 5:56 pm

In just ten weeks, the Canadian economy has completely come apart. Millions of Canadians have lost their jobs, and most of Canada’s population has already run through their meager savings. Anyone hoping for a quick “return to normal” can forget it, we are facing a record economic implosion. Houses will drop at least 30% in value in the next year, and our loonie will drop to 1.60 to the USD. The latter will cause inflation, but our central banksters will be unable to counter that by raising interest rates. In the meantime, Trudy will keep handing out money like there is no tomorrow. From that, how can anyone expect the economy to go back to normal is beyond me.

#70 Shawn on 05.21.20 at 5:59 pm

Duggie said today that Ontario is going to be a leader in destroying its economy.

#71 Anon Poster on 05.21.20 at 6:02 pm

A major crisis of clarity? Allow me to paraphrase this one more precisely?

1. Would you buy a house today if you know the price will be lower tomorrow? Even if you have a decent income and you need a place to live?

2. Do you feel secure about your job today?

3. Do you think the economy will rebound soon enough to change your mind about 1 and 2 listed above?

4. Finally, on which facts did you base your answers above?

This is what he mean by a crisis of clarity. Unable to answer any questions what so ever about the future is probably a very bad feeling.

#72 Fused on 05.21.20 at 6:08 pm

#52 Leftover
Carnival Cruise line 2023 secured bonds paying 11.5%, why buy Canadian Govt bonds when CCL pays way more. Just saying.

#73 Don Guillermo on 05.21.20 at 6:13 pm

#58 Howard on 05.21.20 at 5:25 pm
#35 dogman01 on 05.21.20 at 4:02 pm

Just think of all those giggling ditzes jumping up and down as T2 made his inaugural walk as PM towards the government buildings in November 2015 as you watch your taxes rise year after year to pay them
*******************************************
Can’t think of anyone that ditzed, giggled, jumped and drooled more than Peter Mansbridge that day. That was … Ewww!

#74 Giggling Ditzy on 05.21.20 at 6:15 pm

#58 Howard on 05.21.20 at 5:25 pm
#35 dogman01 on 05.21.20 at 4:02 pm

“Can’t disagree with anything you’ve stated there. I would add that the transfer of wealth from the productive male-dominated private sector to the unproductive female-dominated public sector is another factor in your list of culprits that have destroyed our standard of living.

Just think of all those giggling ditzes jumping up and down as T2 made his inaugural walk as PM towards the government buildings in November 2015 as you watch your taxes rise year after year to pay them.”

Misogynist much?

#75 april on 05.21.20 at 6:17 pm

#53 – bad idea to wait any longer… lower prices will continue on in to the Fall and longer. Heed Garth and there’s many others warning for home price drops coming fast and furious.

#76 april on 05.21.20 at 6:20 pm

#38 -probably the odd ‘Greater Fool’

#77 [email protected] on 05.21.20 at 6:20 pm

Attrition,

You got my attention with the homemade latte recipe! I was quite a Starbucks junkie before, but have mastered my own homemade lattes too. Here’s my version:

(I apologize in advance Garth! I realize this isn’t a coffee blog.)

1. Make a pot of extra strong coffee in your coffeemaker. If you’re a purist, use ground espresso beans in a stovetop espresso maker.

2. Heat up some milk (I like 2% best) in the microwave. I use about 1/4 of the mug. Heat for about 40-45 seconds, depending on the strength of your microwave.

3. Use a handheld whisk to froth the milk – either a regular old fashioned whisk OR one of the electric frothing gadgets. Froth it up really well.

4. Pour in the hot coffee until the froth reaches the top of the mug. Sprinkle with cinnamon or nutmeg.

5. Enjoy your coffee shop style coffee for pennies.

Voila! I never expected to share a recipe on GreaterFool. Hahaha

#78 The Mandrake Mechanism on 05.21.20 at 6:25 pm

Waiter, I’d like to buy a round of cold showers for bloggers everywhere…how much? Pass!

As we look for certainty in an uncertain world we need to think about the 2008 financial collapse. The best time to buy US real estate back then was actually in 2011. Trips to Atlanta (The Bluff) and Indianapolis (pick a street any street) in 2018 showed me neighborhoods with boarded up houses block after block. Okay so the next best time to buy US real estate is now.

The point is it ain’t over until the fat lady sings, or at least until Fluevog releases the next line of Bonnie Henry spike heel ballet knee boots (watch your buttocks). We’re re-opening the economy, but not because it’s safe. Garth is pointing out some very devastating numbers and observations. The damage has been done but now the domino effect begins. Not a “V” but an “L” with an “W” attached to it.

As Lisa Simpson said “we live in a quick-fix, instant oatmeal society” so we need “news as it happens” – “this just in” – and the infamous “the public has a right to know” – we know squat because we’ve been told squat so we can’t predict the next ten minutes of our lives…financially anyways.

Create a journal – the financial conversation you write down on the 15th of June will be different from the 15th of July from the 15th of August. It sure as heck will be different from the 15th of February n’est pas? Second wave? I sure hope not. But with everyone withdrawing listings from the real estate board, and prices refusing to nosedive, maybe there ain’t as much mortgage doom out there…or they all take a bath after CERB runs out in September.

Patience my pretties. The buying spree has yet to happen. Don’t be afraid to buy your retirement property wholesale (not ugh …retail) this fall – rent it out for 15 years and ride into the sunset. Buy and retire in Abbotsford (airport)? Calgary (oil is forever ya know)? Cornwall (call centers are forever ya know) or even Digby NS (the medicinal Kush is plentiful at the annual Wharf Rat Ralley).

I have all of Garth’s books. $1 each at Value Village and the MCC Thrift Stores. In one book he mentioned running to the bush with a good Coleman stove, a tent and a handgun. Oh where do you put your money these days……

NYSE RGR $41.42 (3/10), $59.86 (5/21)
NYSE VSTO $4.40 (3/10), $7.90 (5/21)
NSDQ SWHC $5.95 (3/10), $10.34 (5/21)

Sigh…..

#79 Faron on 05.21.20 at 6:30 pm

#50 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 5:07 pm
#39 Faron on 05.21.20 at 4:38 pm
#8 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 2:30 pm

Only if you’re very, very vigorous about it.

————-

Worked a treat. My WFH life has been improved. Curious, why the two-stage hot water add?

#80 Damifino on 05.21.20 at 6:31 pm

#46 Attrition

We are a resource power house and the envy of most of the world because of it. We squander it and fail to exploit it, but it’s still all here, all still valuable.
——————————————–

I strongly agree. Perhaps that will now begin to change slowly. If only we had some leadership. Such a vacuum in Ottawa. I’m a real hopey-changey kind of guy when it comes to industrial progress for my country.

#81 Stan Schmenge on 05.21.20 at 6:32 pm

I thought energy prices were NOT included in the calculation of inflation.

#82 Gravy Train on 05.21.20 at 6:40 pm

#32 Leigh on 05.21.20 at 3:52 pm
“This is the year I sadly realized how much I had overestimated people’s intelligence and common sense.” Ditto! :)

#83 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.21.20 at 6:45 pm

#57 Lee on 05.21.20 at 5:15 pm
People will not give their houses away in Toronto and the GTA. They will wait as long as it takes for the economy to come back.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Some houses must get sold regardless (divorces/deaths/bankruptcies, etc). These fire-sale prices will set the ‘new normal’ for T.O. housing prices and it’s downward spiral.

#84 OK, Doomer on 05.21.20 at 6:52 pm

#3 BrockOutWest on 05.21.20 at 1:45 pm
See, it’s a seller’s market if you have a home. I’m one of those old millennials, and I couldn’t afford a house 8 years ago, because of student college loans and a used car loan in Edmonton.

I have a condo, 3 kids and while I can make the payments, what happens after I sell the condo? Won’t make money from the sale because of market saturation. So I rent, paying somebody else’s mortgage.

I did everything society told me to do, and I got smacked for it. So color me cynical about ever owning a home. Or retiring.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

As I explained to my kids the other day, don’t think of it as paying someone else’s mortgage. They’re probably losing money on you every month anyway. Think of it as paying insurance against losing you’re downpayment and going bankrupt.

The landlord is crapping himself every day right now and would love to trade places with you. Believe that in spades.

You ain’t missing a thing. On the contrary, this is what you’ve been waiting for. Sit quietly. Patiently. Wait for blood to run in the streets. Get ready to vultch. You can tell it’s time to buy when your MIL says that things can’t get any worse. And she’ll be right. They can’t get any worse; but that means they can only get better. Maximum fear is when you want to buy.

Look for the smallest ugliest house on the best street you can afford and get ready to paint and fix it up. It won’t be your dream house so get over it and leave the house porn thing to the losers.

That’s when you get in. Lowball the crap out of the first four houses you look at. You’re not expecting to buy them; you’re just training yourself to be a hard-ass and look for a good deal. When your realtor realizes that you’re not a pushover he’ll start working hard for you and the quality of deals will get better.

Buying a house isn’t a goal; it’s a system. Build your system and work it. I’ve used this system several times, always buying in the trough and it’s worked great every time.

There, I’ve shared my secret system with you. You’re welcome.

#85 Faron on 05.21.20 at 6:54 pm

#46 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 4:59 pm

I hypothesize that the size and impact of a bubble is a function of the stickiness of the asset price. I would say oil prices were pretty bubbly right before and after the GFC into 2014, and Albertans may argue that the pop had a pretty big impact. But, the asset price is highly volatile and about as unsticky as it gets. I would wager the momentum of a bubble build can’t last too long so the duration of pain is also short and can be surmounted by taking on and paying off corporate debt and laying off workers from time to time.

Housing: super sticky helping to make bubble growth decades long in the current Canadian case and thereby loading in a lot of potential for pain. careers have been build in sales, law, construction etc over this time and they are going to be unwound in the event of a major drop.

All of this is reminding me of the scene in The Big Short where the guru points out that being right on their bet against MBS has massive economic implications. Garth and whomever else being right in envisioning the bubble is cold comfort.

#86 YVR Renter on 05.21.20 at 7:06 pm

#28 Linda- great, timely comment. Back to our 1993 experience of trying to sell, a LOT of folks were in our boat. (SS Titanic). A good friend, a sharp MBA, was trying to sell his decent home to go build something in the country- on a nice chunk of land he needed the money to close on. The real estate market went from overheated overnight to ‘couldn’t give it away’. He thought he didn’t want to waste his money on an agent and could sell it himself. Plus he was tight for money. Well after 2 buyers walked on unwaived conditions, a couple of price drops, and many months, he thought he finally had it sold. Till the buyer told him he was paying $10,000 less than he signed the contract for, go ahead, sue me. He took the $10K less because, who knew if another buyer would close and how much less it would be worth, how many months? Real estate fell off a cliff in 1993, it started slowly then it just plummeted so quickly. It’s probably going to happen again in the coming months. Another friend in real estate development in TO swears there wasn’t a single crane for over 10 years building anything after the glut of spec condos hit the fan. She literally cried when she finally saw a crane rise again. Like Phoenix from the ashes.

Linda’s right. Truthfully your home will be worth less the longer you delay but if you think you can’t afford it now, just you wait. It happens fast! Cover your assets, and you’ll be the one feeling sorry for your friends who waited too long.

#87 Nonplused on 05.21.20 at 7:07 pm

Well, none of the houses for sale in my hood are selling. Even viewings are rare. And these houses are on 2 acres or more with no elevators and very close to the city. (Ok the one has an elevator, but that is to get to the car park in the basement. It is still a single family + staff and horses home.)

But this is Calgary and things here are much worse than reported. Things were already bad due to the Saudi-Russia-US oil price war, but now they are dismal.

So to wit, you can get a 1996 bungalow with a walk-out fully developed basement on 2 acres 10 minutes from the LRT just outside Calgary for $1.1 million. A 2 story on a culdesac with a postage stamp sized yard just 1 mile away but in the city limits goes for $800,000 and a live-in closet at the top of an elevator goes for $600,000. This is a city that doesn’t really have congestion as it is known in Toronto. But none of them are selling. Nobody has any money or job security.

Things are bad. Really bad. But toilet paper is back in stock 1 per customer.

—————–

Small town Alberta is opening up again but it is mostly a show. Restaurants are opening at 50% of capacity with plastic screens between tables, and you need a reservation because they are packed (well, to 50% former capacity). But if you go to these restaurants you will find it resembles a meeting of the local chamber of commerce. The diners are for the most part local businessmen and women (“businesskind?”) who are trying to put on a show and hoping to high water somebody is going to start paying the rent. But at least you can get lunch if you go for a motorcycle ride now.

———————–

People are really itching for the lock-down to end. They want to go to church, play soccer, hike, bike, and garden. But you know what they don’t want to do? Go back to work. Or go to the mall. And this will take some time to sort out with all the Trudeau bucks flowing.

———————

So we already know the “KeepYourRent” and mortgage deferral crowds are talking full advantage of this pandemic like a bunch of vultures in a war zone, but now up is credit cards and car payments. Apparently nobody is paying for anything anymore. And they certainly aren’t using their CERB to make any outstanding payments. What we are experiencing here is the complete failure of contract law. The impact of this will IMHO put an end to the move away from cash towards electronic payment. Why? Because in the future it is going to be much harder to get a credit card, and one missed payment means it stops working. Even debit cards will be threatened because well the banks might take that money if you owe them other money. So for many people, especially the people not paying their rent or mortgages or lines of credit or credit cards or car payments, what you want is cash in your pocket. Not a check, not a wire transfer, not a credit card that no longer works and you owe $15,000 on that you never planned to pay back anyway, but cash. It’s kind of funny that as we head into a potential hyperinflation that cash might be the only way to pay.

#88 YVR Renter on 05.21.20 at 7:13 pm

#57 Lee
We’re gonna circle back to you in 9mths-18mths
Bah ha ha

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 7:13 pm

@#67 Lead Paint
“But I have to agree that in aggregate millennials are screwed and boomers have done nothing to show they care about generations that come after them ”
++++

Boomers hate whiners…..I hope that explains it.
If not. Who cares.

#90 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 7:16 pm

#67 Lead Paint on 05.21.20 at 5:56 pm

A good article on why millennials resent boomers. I’m Gen-X ,so don’t have dog in this fight.

But I have to agree that in aggregate millennials are screwed…

—————

Hey, the military would welcome them with open arms…

They’d gain a little discipline and self-reliance as a side benefit.

#91 Lee on 05.21.20 at 7:18 pm

#81 Pete,

Divorces rarely result in house sales. Bankrupts don’t own homes. Beneficiaries can hold onto a house forever and rent it, and if not, most kids aren’t dumb enough to have a fire sale. Usually one sibling buys out the others. Of course if the property was already a rental it’ll just stay that way for a while. Nobody’s selling a $1M house fir $809,000. Any pressure will be in the 5-10% range. You need to get to Barrie or Cobourg to see real price chops.

#92 dogman01 on 05.21.20 at 7:19 pm

#58 Howard on 05.21.20 at 5:25 pm

I would add Technology to the reasons for the wage earner Standard of Living dropping, however I think it is an inevitable force. House inflation, outsourcing, mass immigration and globalization of the supply chain are all things we could have ameliorated .

What we are seeing is the “crisis of character” in the Western World. Impulsive childish values of the left and right vs the compromising pragmatic adult values of the left and right. A debate of maturity vs immaturity.

………………………………………………………………………

#46 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 4:59 pm

“We are a resource power house and the envy of most of the world because of it. We squander it and fail to exploit it, but it’s still all here, all still valuable.”

That is the frustration and Tragedy of Canada…with such advantage we should not be so mediocre.

#93 Ed McNeil on 05.21.20 at 7:22 pm

There is a good chance that real estate in smaller Canadian cities and rural areas will be decimated. There comes a time when older people simply cannot maintain their homes and must sell them. The children do not want to move home to the Backcountry and sell off inherited homes at fire sale prices. Real estate recovery can take years, and may not recover. We live in changing times.

#94 Nonplused on 05.21.20 at 7:25 pm

#2 Alex on 05.21.20 at 1:41 pm
So I just got off the phone with my advisor and he tells me that Brookfield Asset Management is doing something interesting in these troubled times. For those tenants unable to pay rent, Brookfield is offering to accept equity as a form of payment.

————————

How does that work? Are they accepting share transfers? What sort of equity do their renters have? Or do they have partially owned properties and they are getting a larger share? Seems like just more confusion to me.

#95 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.21.20 at 7:28 pm

#22 Oracle of Ottawa on 05.21.20 at 3:21 pm sez:
“I just heard on CBC radio this morning that there’s never been a pandemic that didn’t have a second wave. Food for thought.”
———————————-
Let me know when we get a pandemic. Right now it doesn’t qualify.

#96 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.21.20 at 7:32 pm

#72 Giggling Ditzy on 05.21.20 at 6:15 pm sez:

“#58 Howard on 05.21.20 at 5:25 pm
#35 dogman01 on 05.21.20 at 4:02 pm

“Can’t disagree with anything you’ve stated there. I would add that the transfer of wealth from the productive male-dominated private sector to the unproductive female-dominated public sector is another factor in your list of culprits that have destroyed our standard of living.

Just think of all those giggling ditzes jumping up and down as T2 made his inaugural walk as PM towards the government buildings in November 2015 as you watch your taxes rise year after year to pay them.”

Misogynist much?”
———————————–
Username fits. I’m sure you’re offended.

#97 Nonplused on 05.21.20 at 7:32 pm

#45 Figmund Sreud on 05.21.20 at 4:58 pm
Restaurants have no idea how they can survive in an age of social distancing.
______________________

Well, … The Inn at Little Washington sits mannequins at some tables so diners will not feel isolated by coronavirus! It’s true, …

https://www.btimesonline.com/articles/132429/20200521/pictures-of-the-day-may-20-2020.htm

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

———————–

Mannequins don’t order. But I might pay more if they were RealDolls. (Don’t search that if you don’t already know what it is.)

#98 Don Guillermo on 05.21.20 at 7:35 pm

#46 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 4:59 pm
“We are a resource power house and the envy of most of the world because of it. We squander it and fail to exploit it, but it’s still all here, all still valuable.”
That is the frustration and Tragedy of Canada…with such advantage we should not be so mediocre.
****************************************
With the resources per capita Canada has and the fact that we are either the best or equal to the best at harvesting we could/should be the wealthiest nation on earth. Sadly, due to mismanaging and self flagellation we are dropping like a stone.

#99 drydock on 05.21.20 at 7:38 pm

#195 WUL on 05.21.20 at 1:43 am

“ranks on the level of the likes of Namibia / Kazakhstan”

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I have family in Texas, my grandson was born in Texas.
I spent 8 hours with a badly broken foot in a corridor waiting to see a doctor in one of Canada’s largest cities.
That would not have happened in Texas.
What’s the matter, you got a frog in your pocket?

#100 Don Guillermo on 05.21.20 at 7:38 pm

#93 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.21.20 at 7:28 pm
#22 Oracle of Ottawa on 05.21.20 at 3:21 pm sez:
“I just heard on CBC radio this morning that there’s never been a pandemic that didn’t have a second wave. Food for thought.”
———————————-
Let me know when we get a pandemic. Right now it doesn’t qualify
************************************
I just heard on CBC ………………………………
Wow, people still don’t get it

#101 Nonplused on 05.21.20 at 7:41 pm

#79 Stan Schmenge on 05.21.20 at 6:32 pm
I thought energy prices were NOT included in the calculation of inflation.

———————-

Only when they go up.

(Actually it is a bit more complicated than that but basically true. They are considered volatile so they get smoothed. Many factors that go into inflation numbers are messaged to the point of not being able to recognize them. For example “owner’s equivalent rent” has been keeping the housing boom out of inflation for years and years and years. But if a computer gets a speed upgrade that gets hedonistically adjusted down, even though you now need 4 of them for the family and have to replace them every 4 years.)

#102 Do we have all the facts on 05.21.20 at 7:41 pm

The hold on tight to your dreams crowd on this blog seem to be overlooking the simple fact that unemployment may force many Canadians sell their dream house and look for something more affordable.

The fact that so many Canadian households have applied for mortgage deferrals and CERB the does not support the belief that unemployed or underemployed households are in a position to ride out the storm without long term government assistance.

If the Government of Canada decides to subsidize the mortgages of citizens in trouble in an effort to shore up house prices it might be the final blow to any hope of regenerating our GDP.

Our government has lost their way because they had no idea where they wanted to end up.

Definitely time for the opposition to speak up.

#103 Keep Your Rent on 05.21.20 at 7:42 pm

Tenants keep your rent.

Landlords keep your distance.

Tenants from across the GTA Descend on Landlords’ Mansions

Posted on: May 13, 2020 / Categories: Uncategorised

Today tenants from Scarborough, Mississauga, and Parkdale visited the homes of their landlords as the (virtual) annual general meeting of the Federation of Rental-housing Providers of Ontario (FRPO) was being held. No longer willing to endure landlords’ threats of evictions and demands of rent repayment, tenants took every safety precaution to collectively voice their demands for no evictions and for rent forgiveness for all tenants unable to pay during the COVID-19 crisis.

Our first stop was the home of Pinedale Properties CEO, George Grossman. Grossman’s company owns the buildings at 7, 9, & 11 Crescent Place where company reps have visited tenants’ units demanding on-the-spot rent payments with a handheld ATM. A company rep told one bereaved tenant whose relative had died from COVID-related illness that “COVID is nothing” and that “the economy needs to keep going”. This morning when tenants from Crescent Town attempted to deliver a letter to Grossman at his door they were greeted by a domestic worker employed at his residence. Grossman opted to cower inside his mansion rather than face his tenants.

Next we descended on the home of Starlight Investments CEO, Daniel Drimmer. In 2019 Starlight added to its real estate empire, buying GTA apartment buildings valued at a total of 3.75 billion dollars. Despite its growing financial power, in the past two months Starlight repeatedly sent notices to tenants demanding rent repayment and threatening to issue legal eviction notices. Shortly after we arrived Drimmer was seen pacing on his back patio while on his phone. Instead of talking to his tenants, Drimmer called Toronto Police Services and reported that tenants were engaged in “hate speech” against him.

Today tenants made it clear that we will continue to organize with our neighbours. Unless landlords’ threats of eviction and demands for rent repayment are withdrawn, and rent forgiven for tenants unable to pay during the crisis, we are prepared to escalate our action by bringing greater numbers of our neighbours to confront even more landlords where they live and do business.

For more information about Pinedale and Starlight visit http://www.landlordsoftoronto.com

Not yet organized with your neighbours? Visit http://www.keepyourrent.com

#104 Nonplused on 05.21.20 at 7:46 pm

#89 Lee on 05.21.20 at 7:18 pm
#81 Pete,

Divorces rarely result in house sales. Bankrupts don’t own homes. Beneficiaries can hold onto a house forever and rent it, and if not, most kids aren’t dumb enough to have a fire sale.

————————

Never seen a divorce or an estate resolution that didn’t result in a sale. Divorcees generally don’t have the money to support 2 houses where before they only had one, and beneficiaries want cash, not an old house that they will do nothing but argue over.

#105 Lead Paint on 05.21.20 at 7:49 pm

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 7:13 pm
#88 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 7:16 pm

I suggest you read it before you dismiss it! Actually you are fitting nicely in to their stereotypes, well done – judging and dismissing without listening.

I think if you read it there can be no doubt that the average boomer born and raised in Canada/US had a much greater opportunity to get a decent house, job and raise a family with lots of time for hobbies and other material goodies than the average millennial.

Did Boomers compete with foreign buyers, outsourcing and automation, staggering student debt and now a pandemic when they were starting their careers/families?

Here is a good snippet from the article, read the article then give us your snide rejoinders (or shut up).

(on the badness of Boomers)

“I’ll give you something abstract and something concrete. On an abstract level, I think the worst thing they’ve done is destroy a sense of social solidarity, a sense of commitment to fellow citizens. That ethos is gone and it’s been replaced by a cult of individualism. It’s hard to overstate how damaging this is.

On a concrete level, their policies of under-investment and debt accumulation have made it very hard to deal with our most serious challenges going forward. Because we failed to confront things like infrastructure decay and climate change early on, they’ve only grown into bigger and more expensive problems. When something breaks, it’s a lot more expensive to fix than it would have been to just maintain it all along.”

By the way I’m fans of yours, Sail Away let me know where to buy acreages near crown land! I’m also a business owner and learned to tolerate crowdedelevatorfartz, it’s socially acceptable to wear a mask now so he/she is far less of an olfactory offence and I enjoy your insight, as verbose as it is.

#106 Nonplused on 05.21.20 at 7:53 pm

#101 Keep Your Rent

Please go away. This isn’t the blog for you. The people here, although diverse and weird, are mostly law abiding and honest. They aren’t vultures circling above a war zone like you. Most of us are trying to navigate these tough times not take advantage of them to screw others.

And karma will come for you one day. It always does. I suggest you use your CERB to buy a nice tent.

#107 Gerry Sangau on 05.21.20 at 7:53 pm

Freedom 57 ( I was a slow learner)

I agree completely. We don’t own a house, we rent a modest apartment and as not two young people 33, 34 years old we don’t like called as a group. We have always been taught by my parents, grandparents that there is no free lunch.

I believe and suspect that ignorance and people being very stubborn at how and what works and what lifestyle they can really afford or come close to paying for medium to longer term is the real problem in our society.

Any money you think you get for free or from the government, some agency or whatever you think free money comes from all has it cost to everyone. Taxes, inflation, higher cost of living, more regulations, restrictions, currency devaluation 72 cents C$ to US dollar, higher poverty rates, higher dependency on governments etc. There is nothing free in life Canadians.

My spouse and I have manged to save, invest, maximize our non-registered, tax sheltered accounts, RRSP’s, TFSA’s to the amount of $400,000. the reserve account we have is $50,000, 18 years of living expenses. We have no debts for 14 years now and 2 paid off cars. We are both on EI now but we are great financial position.

Like any other deep financial downturn even if we take a 30 to 35% pay cut we will stay be earning gross $70,000 to $73,000 a year which still leaves us with $2,500 to $2,700 in monthly new savings, investments etc. We can easily find these wage, pay scale in the future jobs 33 to 40 hours a week.

We live very financially wise and within our means 90% of the time and we have some splurges once and awhile but that has stopped this year.

#108 Fred on 05.21.20 at 7:55 pm

DELETED

#109 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.21.20 at 7:58 pm

I agree. The irrational fear of this virus defies common sense.

#110 Shirl Clarts on 05.21.20 at 8:04 pm

There has never been anything wrong with buying real estate within your budget.

Remember that thing called TDS (Total Debt Service Ratio).

The formula:
(Annual Mortgage + Ppty Tax + Other debt) /
Gross Family Income

Make sure it’s under 40% to qualify for a mortgage.

Even better, do it on the Primary Income ONLY, and leave the secondary income as extra spending money. This is how I believe we got ourselves into this housing mess. Too many dual income households maxed out the entire monthly nut. Don’t do that!!

And for all the house haters out there, the TDS is like a Vampire staring at a crucifix.

Houses don’t kill people. People do.

You forgot the financial assets, the TFSAs, RESP and retirement savings. That’s where the ‘spending money’ should go. – Garth

#111 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 8:09 pm

Now they tell us after we torpedo the entire economy. Now you know why doctors work until they are 75.

The coronavirus doesn’t spread easily through contaminated surfaces, CDC clarifies

https://globalnews.ca/news/6969545/coronavirus-surfaces/

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 8:10 pm

@#103 Lead Paint
“I suggest you read it before you dismiss it! Actually you are fitting nicely in to their stereotypes, well done – judging and dismissing without listening…….
……. the way I’m fans of yours, Sail Away let me know where to buy acreages near crown land! I’m also a business owner and learned to tolerate crowdedelevatorfartz, it’s socially acceptable to wear a mask now so he/she is far less of an olfactory offence and I enjoy your insight, as verbose as it is.”
+++++

Sorry, i fell asleep…..could you repeat all that?

On second thought, I dont care….

#113 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 8:16 pm

#46 Attrition
—–

Having resources and properly exploiting them are two very different animals. You just saw what the woke left enabled by Trudeau did to our energy sector for the past 5 yrs. Yeah its all still here, but until we make that crucial change, nothing is going to happen.

We should be very worried. During the GFC oil was pushing $100 a bbl. Now its shut in.

How on earth will we climb out of this without our biggest export humming along? There is no Canada without our energy sector period so somebody better wake up our leadership.

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 8:18 pm

Totally off subject.

My gray/white hair is the longest its ever been since…. well…when it was brown!
I look like Doc Brown on the movie Back to the Future.
( For you people that dont remember Back to the Future. Its a sexist, racist, misogynist comedy from the 1980’s that was banned in the 2010’s when they were burning all things non politically correct…your loss)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2c-tMZSZtY

Anywho, does anyone have a set of electric shears they can loan me?
I promise to return them disinfected and de-scented in a week or so.

#115 Reality is stark on 05.21.20 at 8:21 pm

Get them drunk on housing and steal their money. What a reason for becoming a politician.
Sell all the good jobs down the river and replace them with suspect make work social justice “feel good” jobs funded by the tax payer.
That folks is how you build an economy without administrative oversight. Unadulterated negligence.
R&D virtually non-existent. Few public/private graduate school initiatives in this country.
A decimated automotive sector and oil sector imploding.
A school system that never valued the trades, so kids scramble for parasitic public service jobs.
Yet that is not even the comical part. When polled 90% of Canadians feel that their offspring are amongst the top 10% of all first world nations when it comes to readiness for employability.
These are the same people 2 paycheques from economic disaster.
I believe the mayor of Vancouver epitomizes the average Canadian. Holier than thou when the housing market was hot. He wanted to triple the empty homes tax. He couldn’t imagine that his city revenues were built on a house of cards, he was in denial. He should have taken the opportunity to cut city costs to get his house in order.
Now the arrogance is back. Hey province, hey feds, where is my goddamn money? You owe us.
What a society.

#116 Lead Paint on 05.21.20 at 8:25 pm

#58 Howard on 05.21.20 at 5:25 pm

This type of incel tripe is dangerous. Incel groups are now correctly identified as (possible) terrorist organisations. I hope you smarten up.

You are not worthy of this blog, or this country. Find a counsellor to help you with your issues.

#117 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 8:29 pm

#103 Lead Paint on 05.21.20 at 7:49 pm

…let me know where to buy acreages near crown land!

—————

Oh, this is fun. It’ll never be posted for sale, so you need to do all the legwork.

Search the public database for PID #, use PID to find title, owner, sales history and assessment, verify the property has historical access. Then work on the relationship with the owner. It’s best of course if you already have a history in the area and know them, but sometimes you might just need to knock on the door.

Plant the seed and give it time. Sometimes a few years. Check in every year or so. And the land doesn’t have to be expensive. My favourite 10 acres borders nearly endless Crown land and cost $27k.

I build nothing on these parcels. They’re mine and they open access forever to huge expanses of public land. One near Ashcroft is an hour’s hike from the Thompson River where I’ve never seen even a footprint. Talk about trout! We take two rods: one rigged for dry flies and one wet, and catch incredible fish. So much fun bringing friends. Especially Europeans. 1000x (a million?) better than publicly available access.

#118 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 8:34 pm

More than 40,000 health-care workers taking part in hydroxychloroquine trial

https://globalnews.ca/news/6968889/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-health-care-workers/

But Trump is nuts right?

#119 Tim123 on 05.21.20 at 8:35 pm

I have to agree with your sentiment, that now is the time to sell before prices drop severely. The difference could be 100k or more on the trade. Take a page out of the wall street traders, sell now and ask questions later. Go into cash with the proceeds, rent for a year or two then go back into the market at the bottom. Should be a winning trade but selling right away takes a lot of work.

#120 DON on 05.21.20 at 8:38 pm

“Boomers hate whiners…..”

I remember my grandparents saying the same thing to their kids…the boomers.

More like old and experienced folks dislike whiners…Pull up your boot straps and get at it!

#121 Ustabe on 05.21.20 at 8:38 pm

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 7:13 pm

Boomers hate whiners…..I hope that explains it.
If not. Who cares.

And yet who, on this blog, can not state that its the Boomers doing most of the whining?

Garth, please ban so and so cause I’m offended.

so and so please stop posting, I’m offended.

Trudeau is giving the poors money, I’m offended.

Somebody said something bad about Trump, I’m offended.

You don’t think like me, I’m offended.

Day after day, post after post…no matter how it is phrased, its whining.

I am not the longest serving poster on this blog but I do recall in the past how it was full of ideas being shared on how best to move forward. Now it is overrun by gloating, Boomers pleased with others misfortune who bring zero in the way of solutions while whining about their perceived slight of the moment.

You’d think with 35 million people in this country we would be able to find two, one con, one lib, who could actually bring something to the table and lead us but that sure won’t come out of this motley group.

#122 Hank the Hermit on 05.21.20 at 8:50 pm

Just got back from a year in the northern Canadian bush and lineups at grocery stores and banks, being told to stand apart and everyone wearing masks. What the hell happened since I left???

#123 april on 05.21.20 at 8:59 pm

#107 – alright for some to say if their not in the high risk group.

#124 april on 05.21.20 at 9:07 pm

#98 – look up the definition of a pandemic. Does Covid qualify?

#125 Lee on 05.21.20 at 9:09 pm

#102 Nonpulsed,

If you sell the house after a divorce you still need to pay for two places. Usually cheaper for one parent to stay put and the other rents a 700 sft apartment. If you need the equity to pay the other their share you get a mortgage. Also the overwhelming estate matters are amicable where family members work together. It’s not divorces and death driving the real estate market. It’s people buying starter homes to rent out. There’s tons of them out there and people find a way to keep them just like in 2009 – although there was a very tight window in 2009-2010 where you could have gotten 30% off a sfh in Toronto but competition will be tough this time. Good luck.

#126 jess on 05.21.20 at 9:09 pm

usa: an international fraud scheme that stung the state’s unemployment insurance system and could mean even longer delays for thousands of jobless workers still waiting for legitimate benefits.

By MATTHEW PERRONE
Updated an hour ago
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/economy/washington-halts-unemployment-payments-for-two-days-after-finding-1-6-million-in-fraudulent-claims-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/
========
“The buildings aren’t designed to be left alone for months,” said Andrew Whelton, an associate professor of civil, environmental and ecological engineering at Purdue University.

Whelton, other researchers and public health authorities have issued warnings about the plumbing in these buildings, where water may have gone stagnant in the pipes or even in individual taps and toilets. As lockdowns are lifted, bacteria that build up internally may cause health problems for returning workers if the problem is not properly addressed by facilities managers. Employees and guests at hotels, gyms and other kinds of buildings may also be at risk.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/after-coronavirus-office-workers-may-face-unexpected-health-threats/

#127 sailedaway on 05.21.20 at 9:11 pm

#17 calgary rip off on 05.21.20 at 3:01 pm

I’ve lived in house in Europe between 250 to 350 years old, none of those issues..

Some in cold climates too…

In Canada my first house was built in 1948, no problems whatsoever, anything post 1980 is total garbage.

Anything built now is throwaway like a Chrysler car :-)

#128 sailedaway on 05.21.20 at 9:15 pm

#35 dogman01 on 05.21.20 at 4:02 pm

“Entire future generation of Canadians job quality\wages\standard of living destroyed by House inflation, outsourcing, mass immigration and globalization of the supply chain.”

Nope, abysmal productivity and entitlement is the killer in this country. I’m Gen X too and don’t do self-pity and blaming foreigners.

‘Me, me me. I deserve this, I need that”
“My boss can’t say this”
“My union protects me”
“I’m worth this”

Lol. 2020 is going to teach a lesson to a few people, kinda like that painting of Trudeau doing the rounds recently.

#129 sailedaway on 05.21.20 at 9:19 pm

#59 Bobby Bittman on 05.21.20 at 5:28 pm

“The Japanese had and still have a ZERO immigration policy. There….solved your mystery.”

There’s a nasty theme on the comments over the last few days… Make Canada Great again-ish

Japan’s economy collapsed because of real estate, whole areas of the country are empty, and population is one of the oldest on this planet. Most of Asia has some vivid memories of Japan invading them and aren’t so keen on going there anyways

#130 DON on 05.21.20 at 9:23 pm

#48 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 5:00 pm

#253 Faron on 05.21.20 at 1:06 pm
#246 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 12:05 pm

All kinds of criticism, no solutions. Fairly common theme of a certain subset, actually.

—————

Instead of an accusatory implication of a “certain subset” just strap your nuts on and say what you think that subset is.

—————

Sure.

The subset of young people coming from privilege who strongly feel they have a God-given mandate to identify and abolish injustice toward women, minorities and LGBTQ. In order to meet this imperative, they find and expose ‘discrimination’ everywhere. For example:

-The Portland taco shop shamed and ostracized for selling tacos. For shame! Two non-Hispanic women! Cultural appropriation, obviously.
-Non-critical support for any and all MeToo… because women are always right even when the facts may not support their accusations
-Support of Antifa violence, and particularly against reporter Andy Ngo
-Shaming politicians who don’t attend sexually graphic Pride parades verging on pornography

etc…
*************
History is full of changing circumstances, child labour, women’s vote, slavery. Some young entitled people did a lot of good protesting for certain causes. Times always change…

“Boy, the way Glenn Miller played
songs that made the hit parade
Guys like me we had it made
Those were the days
Didn’t need no welfare state
ev’rybody pulled his weight
gee our old LaSalle ran great
Those were the days
And you knew who you were then
girls were girls and men were men
Mister we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again
People seemed to be content
fifty dollars paid the rent
freaks were in a circus tent
Those were the days”

#131 Jimers on 05.21.20 at 9:25 pm

RE is an emotional commodity like oil is a political commodity. Their fundamentals are always skewed.

#132 sailedaway on 05.21.20 at 9:26 pm

@sail away

“Sure.

The subset of young people coming from privilege who strongly feel they have a God-given mandate to identify and abolish injustice toward women, minorities and LGBTQ. In order to meet this imperative, they find and expose ‘discrimination’ everywhere. For example:

-The Portland taco shop shamed and ostracized for selling tacos. For shame! Two non-Hispanic women! Cultural appropriation, obviously.
-Non-critical support for any and all MeToo… because women are always right even when the facts may not support their accusations
-Support of Antifa violence, and particularly against reporter Andy Ngo
-Shaming politicians who don’t attend sexually graphic Pride parades verging on pornography

etc…”

—————————————————————–

I think you forgot greenies, foreigners, and transexuals.

Funny, I personally detest weapons, people subsidized by other taxpayers, anything that extorts nationalism and hunters. It’s called freedom of expression buddy.

To each their own, you have so much to learn mon
tout petit bonhomme avec une tige tres courte.

#133 Felix on 05.21.20 at 9:48 pm

Good pic today.

Cats are always in charge.

Never forget it.

#134 COVID Barber on 05.21.20 at 10:02 pm

#112 crowdedelevatorfart

Anywho, does anyone have a set of electric shears they can loan me?
+++++++++

If you are in southern Ontario I can come by for $500 all-in for you for a cut’n style.

You don’t sound like someone who’s had an intimate partner in a few decades, but if you want to bring a rental along, I’ll throw in a haircut for her for just $250.

You probably should have a mental health therapist too, I’ll do his hair for free.

#135 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 10:09 pm

OMG, it just gets better and better from our ivory tower egg heads. Behold their newest solution;

Scientists propose a 50 days on, 30 days off coronavirus lockdown strategy

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/study-proposes-50-days-on-30-days-off-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy.html

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 10:12 pm

@#119 Ustabe
“You’d think with 35 million people in this country we would be able to find two, one con, one lib, who could actually bring something to the table and lead us but that sure won’t come out of this motley group.”

+++
My my.
So much whining…. so little time.

Personally, I enjoy poking the camp fire when I can smell a leaky propane tank….
Unfortunately, with the Covid -1984 lockdown….I dont get to go camping as much as i’d like.

Hence, I must resort to “Poking the easily offended”.
Its almost as much fun as ofaculatory overload on a crowded elevator.

#137 Neo on 05.21.20 at 10:13 pm

#22 Oracle of Ottawa on 05.21.20 at 3:21 pm
I just heard on CBC radio this morning that there’s never been a pandemic that didn’t have a second wave. Food for thought.

*******************************

We’ve never had a pandemic where the average age of death exceeded the average age of death of a Canadian. 86 for Canadian dying of Covid. 82 for a Canadian dying in general. Also, never had a pandemic when zero deaths of anyone below 20. Real food for thought.

#138 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.21.20 at 10:23 pm

#88 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 7:16 pm
#67 Lead Paint on 05.21.20 at 5:56 pm

A good article on why millennials resent boomers. I’m Gen-X ,so don’t have dog in this fight.

But I have to agree that in aggregate millennials are screwed…

—————
Hey, the military would welcome them with open arms…
They’d gain a little discipline and self-reliance as a side benefit.
—————
So does hockey.
And as a bonus: Hockey players only rough up the opponents. And not maim and kill them.

#139 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 10:25 pm

Dear Mr Trudeau and Morneau, get this through your thick heads. I would rather let my business fail and go bankrupt and beg asylum in Trumpland before I would ever give you an equity stake in it, you socialist vultures.

#140 Lead Paint on 05.21.20 at 10:31 pm

#115 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 8:29 pm

Very awesome, thanks.

#141 Neo on 05.21.20 at 10:34 pm

@Dolce Vita

“Hopefully, the 2nd wave genie not out of the bottle and not as deadly as the Spanish Flu 2nd wave was…but you know, my gut says it probably will be as bad.”

Dude. You realize the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed 25 per 1000 population. Not 25 per 1,000,000 which is the metric we use.

That’s the equivalent of 25,000 deaths per 1,000,000. Right now Canada is 163 deaths per 1,000,000. Even the first wave of the Spanish Flu was 5,000 per 1,000,000.

This ISN’T the Spanish Flu. No need to go back 100 years for added fear mongering effect. These bad flu seasons happen about once a decade. In 1957 and 1969 there were 116,000 deaths in the US and 7,000 deaths in Canada each of those years. Why not compare Covid to those Asian Flus that are actually more comparable? Not sensational enough right…

By the way, there were no shutdowns in either 1957 or 1969.

#142 COVID Barber on 05.21.20 at 10:35 pm

#112 crowdedelevatorfart

Anywho, does anyone have a set of electric shears they can loan me?
+++++++++

PS, forgot to mention. You’ll need to bring your PPE including two masks, one for front one for back.

And since I’ll need to throw away the clothing I have on while near you during the haircut, I must raise your price to $600.

And I am worth it!

#143 45north on 05.21.20 at 10:41 pm

Lead Paint:

But I have to agree that in aggregate millennials are screwed and boomers have done nothing to show they care about generations that come after them (in contrast to their parents).

there’s the phrase “in aggregate”. In aggregate means that you put all the boomers in one bucket and all the next generation in another. So you can look at the two buckets and say that bucket one has done nothing to show they care about bucket two but this aggregation is a deception – it hides the substantial and vital contribution that one generation is making for the other – that me and my wife are making for our children.

#144 Marco on 05.21.20 at 10:42 pm

Cheap medicine for motley crew. Molotov cocktail….

#145 Paul on 05.21.20 at 10:50 pm

#57 Lee on 05.21.20 at 5:15 pm
People will not give their houses away in Toronto and the GTA. They will wait as long as it takes for the economy to come back.
————————————————————————————————
It’s not the owners with deep pockets that will sell it will be 5-15% down folks that are two months of payments
That lose their income that will sell ,especially when they owe $1,000,000 and the house is only worth $800,000 stick the keys in the mail.

#146 R on 05.21.20 at 10:58 pm

I think the world has past the peak demand for oil. Inexpensive renewable solar energy production, management ( with batteries), and consumption ( self driving electric cars and semi trucks ) will gradually reduce oil demand . I think there are now two kinds of industries, those that will be disrupting, and those that will be disrupted. This pandemic is accelerating the progress of the disrupters.

#147 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 11:01 pm


#77 Faron on 05.21.20 at 6:30 pm

#50 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 5:07 pm
#39 Faron on 05.21.20 at 4:38 pm
#8 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 2:30 pm

Worked a treat. My WFH life has been improved. Curious, why the two-stage hot water add?

Glad it worked. It’s a surprisingly decent (and inexpensive) latte.

The two stage hot water add accomplishes two things: kills time while waiting for the micro to warm the pre-frothed milk, and (more importantly) ensures you don’t under mix the instant coffee.

The pre-mix (blatant 2-stroke reference) should be really frothy itself. Never under-mix instant coffee.


#75 [email protected] on 05.21.20 at 6:20 pm

Attrition,
You got my attention with the homemade latte recipe! I was quite a Starbucks junkie before, but have mastered my own homemade lattes too. Here’s my version…

I’ll give yours a go tomorrow.

Through extensive experimentation, I’ve found that (somewhat counter-intuitively) milk froths better cold than warm.

Also, the fresher the frothier. And the microwave is less about warming the milk than it is about stabilizing the proteins so it stays frothy.

And that is my motto, after all: Stay Frothy.

#148 drydock on 05.21.20 at 11:02 pm

#120 Hank the Hermit on 05.21.20 at 8:50 pm

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Well Hank, the world seems to have lost it’s mind.

#149 Cowtown Cowboy on 05.21.20 at 11:31 pm

#71 Don Guillermo on 05.21.20 at 6:13 pm
#58 Howard on 05.21.20 at 5:25 pm
#35 dogman01 on 05.21.20 at 4:02 pm

Just think of all those giggling ditzes jumping up and down as T2 made his inaugural walk as PM towards the government buildings in November 2015 as you watch your taxes rise year after year to pay them
*******************************************
Can’t think of anyone that ditzed, giggled, jumped and drooled more than Peter Mansbridge that day. That was … Ewww!

Dude, glad I wasnt the only one that found Mansbridge’s fawning absolutely nauseating

#150 Kothar on 05.21.20 at 11:38 pm

Gas now rebounding from 68.9 to now 95.9 in 2 months …soon back to where it was. Negative inflation?

#151 LP on 05.21.20 at 11:52 pm

#37 Stealth on 05.21.20 at 4:28 pm

(Hi Felix)

#152 NFN_NLN on 05.22.20 at 12:24 am

Hong Kong is the new Austria

Taiwan is the new Poland

Then Ladakh and Bhutan and Diaoyu Islands…

Watch what happens to markets when the first domino falls. The rest will come quite quickly.

#153 Sail Away on 05.22.20 at 12:58 am

#130 sailedaway on 05.21.20 at 9:26 pm
@sail away

“Sure.

The subset of young people coming from privilege who strongly feel they have a God-given mandate to identify and abolish injustice toward women, minorities and LGBTQ. In order to meet this imperative, they find and expose ‘discrimination’ everywhere. For example:

-The Portland taco shop shamed and ostracized for selling tacos. For shame! Two non-Hispanic women! Cultural appropriation, obviously.
-Non-critical support for any and all MeToo… because women are always right even when the facts may not support their accusations
-Support of Antifa violence, and particularly against reporter Andy Ngo
-Shaming politicians who don’t attend sexually graphic Pride parades verging on pornography

etc…”

——————-

Funny, I personally detest weapons, people subsidized by other taxpayers, anything that extorts nationalism and hunters. It’s called freedom of expression buddy.

——————-

Haha, exactly.

You sound a bit angry, though. Detesting those whose fully legal freedom of expression differs from yours?

Sounds intolerant. Just saying.

#154 Sail Away on 05.22.20 at 1:04 am

#128 DON on 05.21.20 at 9:23 pm

History is full of changing circumstances, child labour, women’s vote, slavery. Some young entitled people did a lot of good protesting for certain causes. Times always change…

——————-

Sure. My issue is only when people ostensibly fighting for the rights of others do so by violating the rights of those with whom they disagree.

#155 jane24 on 05.22.20 at 1:09 am

In my 65 years I have lived through two TO housing crashes. The only ‘somewhat’ winners were the ones who sold at just under market immediately. The ones who chased the market price down by constantly being just over, lost their shirts. Literally. Lots of crying. Lots of offer prices being reduced just before completion too and the owners took it every time. No-one cared about contract law.

These times are obviously coming back as Canadian and indeed the Western world employment stats are going off the cliff. You can’t hold a house if you can’t afford it regardless of what many posters here are claiming about people never selling at a loss. Again a lot more vendor crying. So many people had got themselves into such financial messes.

I was an RE agent for both these drops in Canada and it was this second bout of constant vendor crying that got me out of the business. I was still doing sales but each one was heart breaking and stressful. I would sit there with a calculator and work out their pitiful financial situation and it was ALWAYS a surprise to them. Then I would reduce my commission to something they could afford and got them sold. Horrible times for everyone.

#156 Nonplused on 05.22.20 at 2:25 am

#123 Lee on 05.21.20 at 9:09 pm
#102 Nonpulsed,

If you sell the house after a divorce you still need to pay for two places. Usually cheaper for one parent to stay put and the other rents a 700 sft apartment.

————————

I don’t think you are letting my point sink in to the fertile ground of your brain. Yes a divorce can mean two properties instead of one, maybe the loser guy has to rent, but the family home is almost always sold within 2 years for more modest dwellings. It simply can’t be maintained on child support and alimony isn’t really a thing anymore except for old people. I don’t really want to go into that much other than to say the modern man does not marry a woman who doesn’t have a job, no matter how much he makes.

As for dealing with estates, well, you don’t know my family. Those assets are getting sold right then if I have anything to do with it because I know my family well enough to know they are a bunch of crooks who will make every attempt to take advantage of or defraud me, as they have in the past. Nope we are not doing business. If they want to keep the assets fine but cash me out. Not that I expect there to be any assets to argue about at the rate they are currently abusing my parents, but that is a whole another story that would make another long comment.

But now I just cannot resist blabbing about some of how it is going. At the current rate my siblings are burning through my parents money and the concurrent collapse of their investments, the money might not be there when my parents have to go to the home, or even buy groceries in August. It infuriates me. I’ll have to stop there before I bust another computer.

#157 happygolucky on 05.22.20 at 3:16 am

#75 [email protected] on 05.21.20

Attrition,
You got my attention with the homemade latte recipe! I was quite a Starbucks junkie before, but have mastered my own homemade lattes too. Here’s my version:
(I apologize in advance Garth! I realize this isn’t a coffee blog.)
1. Make a pot of extra strong coffee in your coffeemaker. If you’re a purist, use ground espresso beans in a stovetop espresso maker.
2. Heat up some milk (I like 2% best) in the microwave. I use about 1/4 of the mug. Heat for about 40-45 seconds, depending on the strength of your microwave.
3. Use a handheld whisk to froth the milk – either a regular old fashioned whisk OR one of the electric frothing gadgets. Froth it up really well.
4. Pour in the hot coffee until the froth reaches the top of the mug. Sprinkle with cinnamon or nutmeg.
5. Enjoy your coffee shop style coffee for pennies.
Voila! I never expected to share a recipe on GreaterFool. Hahah
——————————————————————

Unprecedented times, anything goes…and speaking of self reliance…do we need Starbucks?
What for? …to stay religiously in line ups like a herd of sheep with morning begging bowls (mugs)

The Times They A Changing

Come gather ’round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You’ll be drenched to the bone.
If your time to you
Is worth savin’
Then you better start swimmin’
Or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’.
Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won’t come again
And don’t speak too soon
For the wheel’s still in spin
And there’s no tellin’ who
That it’s namin’.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin’.
Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside ragin’.
It’ll soon shake your windows
And rattle…

#158 Stan Brooks on 05.22.20 at 4:55 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-resilient-during-covid-19-but-cmhc-warns-about-debts-effect-191940957.html

“Siddall could be right, and we see a price drop that depresses growth and generates major headwinds for the Canadian dollar, or – just as in 2008 – policymakers could blink and inject enough cash to stabilize prices and kick the can further down the road,” said Schamotta.

“We need to consider both, but given Canada’s highly-oligarchic financial system and political structure, the latter seems like a very real possibility.”

They openly say it: highly oligarchic financial and political structure. The owners. You are just the stupid lil sheeple.

Let’s see how far we can push debt and what will happen to the currency.

It seems double digits inflation coming to stay for a decade or two combined with higher taxes and zero rate.

Enjoy the oligarchy folks.

Cheers,

#159 Stan Brooks on 05.22.20 at 4:58 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/not-a-bailout-how-taxpayers-stand-to-benefit-from-federal-support-for-big-business-153517898.html

‘Not a bailout’: Morneau says Canadians can benefit from Ottawa’s loans to big business

Truer words ever spoken. Not a bailout but a gift to their friends. Who are Canadians. So he can say it with a straight face.

#160 Stan Brooks on 05.22.20 at 5:07 am

#46 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 4:59 pm

A parking space in Tokyo worth more than all the RE in Cali, if you recall…

We are a resource power house and the envy of most of the world because of it. We squander it and fail to exploit it, but it’s still all here, all still valuable. Resources rarely experience bubbles and if they do they’re relatively small and when they pop it’s not the end of the economy.

It would be cute to be extremely naive even though it is dangerous, but you are really pathetic.

Parking space in Japan worth more than all RE in Cali? Really?

Resource powerhouse? Really? So is Russia and Nigeria, check how are they doing lately.

———————————-

Now we learn the the key to economic progress and ever increasing house prices is to import poor immigrants from around the world who cannot afford a garage in GTA even with all the credit in the world and then hope that they will produce and return the loans.

Fantastic strategy, let’s see how it works out as most of these new immigrants compete for the few pizza delivery jobs while the vast majority of them live on government handouts, i.e are net consumers, not contributors/check all government official statistics.

Keep digging folks.
Cheers

#161 BillyBob on 05.22.20 at 6:29 am

@#43 the Jaguar on 05.21.20 at 4:48 pm

Thank you Jag for the thoughtful reply, I always enjoy your contributions. And (don’t tell Garth) I share your appreciation of felines. A couple of beautiful, friendly little neighbourhood creatures brighten up my daily strolls locally.

The gifted money is beyond approach, provenance is heavily documented. The legal and beneficial owner would be a Canadian resident, and if any small financing was required should – if anyone can be – beyond reproach: a senior health care worker with income that is both large and secure.

But this idea of gifting money to assist in a relative purchasing a property is one just being kicked around, not that seriously. It’s only prompted by the convergence of possible factors I mentioned. You are correct I was referring to BC, but truth be told if I were to return to Canada I would prefer Alberta, perhaps something in the foothills. I also love the Maritimes. Good and bad people from everywhere, of course, but I’ve just found I enjoy the folks from these locales far more than elsewhere. Not quite as “all-in” on the utter bs that emanates from the self-styled centres of the universe. You know, the ones that go by three-letter acronyms.

BC would be strictly due to family and investment, and even that, only if the numbers worked.

#162 BillyBob on 05.22.20 at 6:55 am

*beyond reproach, not approach

The uh, charming? simplicity of this site’s commenting function sometimes works against it…

#163 Dennis Burr on 05.22.20 at 6:58 am

Trudeau/Butts have planned for a service economy without resources . Here’s an example of what that looks like.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/coronavirus-dubai-70percent-of-companies-expect-to-close-in-six-months.html

#164 Do we have all the facts on 05.22.20 at 7:05 am

What is that familiar sound I hear?

Why it’s the sound of our governments kicking more problems into the future.

Why address issues today when it is so easy to force future generations to deal with the issues tomorrow!

Canadian GDP was leaking before the Covid 19 crisis and the response from our Federal government was a prediction that things would improve.

Well things are a whole lot worse these days and the time for naive optimism is over.

It is time to reassess Canada’s position in a rapidly changing world and to focus what little is left in our toolbox of gimmicks on restoration of our GDP.

Shovelling billions of dollars out the back door to keep the masses happy for a few months is not the most “productive” solution to our current situation.

Like many Canadians I would like to see our governments deal with our declining economic base in a more responsible manner.

The time for pandering is over!

#165 the Jaguar on 05.22.20 at 7:51 am

‘“Canada has an independent judicial system that functions without interference or override by politicians,” Mr. Trudeau said.”

Did I really just read this in the newspaper? Is this the same guy who tried to muscle Jody Wilson Raybould?
This whole Meng Wenzhou debacle has gone on for too long. Tell them ( Chinese government) they have 48 hours to release the two Canadians being held or we hand her over to the US.
(hard crack of riding crop heard in the background).

p.s. comment section showing stress fractures this morning….

#166 maxx on 05.22.20 at 8:07 am

Scratched and clawed, begged and borrowed 5% down payments have led to this mess. Low down payments are NOT “good for the economy”. They serve to corral the maximum of fiscal idiots into assets they can’t afford and voila! here we are, 12 years after the U.S. Too stupid to learn anything or was it that we were totally blinded by gloating and wallowing in a false sense of superiority.

When we bought our first house, the down required was 20%, our rate was 11.25%. We survived quite well on those terms. But then again, money was actually worth something back then.

Today, people overwhelmingly have absolutely no clue as to how to build wealth. They place 25+ years of unearned income on red and expect that the little re ball will cash them out big time. Salvation through real estate…..all within the parameters of an economy that is straining for breath and can’t quite recover from the metastatic mess which manifest in 2007-08.

Now, we have a government that is fire-hosing cash at the economic rot they created like there’s no tomorrow.

This rot looks like it’s here to stay because central banks have zero stones, given that they continue to insist on using the wrong so-called “tools”. Why? Because it’s easier?

Now where did I file that definition of insanity…………

#167 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.22.20 at 8:30 am

#32 Leigh on 05.21.20 at 3:52 pm sez:

‘This is the year I sadly realized how much I had overestimated people’s intelligence and common sense.’
——————————————————————
I agree. The irrational fear of this virus defies common sense.

#168 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.22.20 at 8:45 am

#122 april on 05.21.20 at 9:07 pm sez:
“#98 – look up the definition of a pandemic. Does Covid qualify?”
—————————————–
No.

#169 MF on 05.22.20 at 8:46 am

#135 Neo on 05.21.20 at 10

Can’t we just argue that the shutdown is responsible for the lower number of deaths in younger people?

Should we forget that this virus is rough for people over 60 -which is a very large percentage of our population.

Can we not ignore the increasing number of people who survive but have lasting effects, whether young or old?

Plus, the story isn’t over yet and things could change.

More food for thought.

MF

#170 Howard on 05.22.20 at 8:55 am

#114 Lead Paint on 05.21.20 at 8:25 pm

Oh calm down, don’t get all flustered. Nobody, of any gender, is beyond reproach. Criticism or poking fun is now terrorism? Seems like you’re the one with issues if you react so sensitively to different views. Before you police other people’s thoughts, I suggest you form some of your own.

#171 Archie Bunker on 05.22.20 at 8:59 am

#128 DON on 05.21.20 at 9:23 pm
#48 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 5:00 pm

#253 Faron on 05.21.20 at 1:06 pm
#246 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 12:05 pm
—————————————————————

“Boy, the way Glenn Miller played
songs that made the hit parade
Guys like me we had it made
Those were the days
Didn’t need no welfare state
ev’rybody pulled his weight
gee our old LaSalle ran great
Those were the days
And you knew who you were then
girls were girls and men were men
Mister we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again
People seemed to be content
fifty dollars paid the rent
freaks were in a circus tent
Those were the days”
——————————————————-
Nice to see my theme song lyrics again. Edith, get me some breakfast!

#172 MF on 05.22.20 at 9:14 am

139 Neo on 05.21.20 at 10

I don’t think dolce is fear mongering. Italy had a rough go of it.

People’s complaints seem to fit in three camps:

-the virus
-the government response
-the economic effects.

You seem to be focused on the third because you mentioned the lack of shut downs in 1957 and 1959.

However, there were shut downs in the 1918 pandemic, although data seems spotty.

Here’s an article by the St. Louis federal reserve about the economic impacts of the 1918 pandemic, with its shutdowns. A little old (2007) but I’m too lazy to look for anything else.

Conclusions of the article:

Businesses were hurt. Massive layoffs, particularly in the service sectors (like today). Temporary wage increase for available workers (like today as wel).

Overall impact temporary as the pandemic passed by (hopefully like today as well).

https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf

MF

#173 Dharma Bum on 05.22.20 at 9:16 am

DELETED

#174 Ace Goodheart on 05.22.20 at 9:27 am

RE: #153 jane24 on 05.22.20 at 1:09 am

The situation you describe appears to be returning to the “big” neighbourhoods in Toronto. I am watching with a lot of interest (we are “real estate vultures” and have made a lot of money “vultching” properties during downturns).

We live in the Bloor-West area. The situation on the ground here is unusual. There are open houses that no one comes to, no offers. Properties sitting on the market for months with no action. The prices are “reasonable” for the area, but no one is buying. We are seeing a return of “conditional offers” under asking, which sellers are accepting (during the great “housing boom” a conditional offer was tossed in the trash without even being looked at – it was almost considered an insult to the seller to make such an offer).

We have houses here that have had their prices reduced multiple times (and I am talking $100,000 off the list price, two or three times in a three week period) that are still not getting any offers.

As I said, this is not normal for Bloor West. Usually when a house comes up, it is swarmed. Bully bids. Open houses where you have to walk for blocks because there is nowhere to park anywhere near the house. People sitting in their cars for hours as the 20 or 30 “offers” received after the open house are considered by the sellers. One lucky person “winning” the house.

The above is just gone. Not happening. No one is offering anything. Conditional offers only, below asking. Empty open houses. Stuff sitting and not selling.

I don’t know if the banks have just turned the taps off or what has gone wrong here. For some reason people either cannot, or will not, come up with the cash to make an offer on these houses.

#175 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.22.20 at 9:31 am

@#163 the jaguar
“This whole Meng Wenzhou debacle has gone on for too long. Tell them ( Chinese government) they have 48 hours to release the two Canadians being held or we hand her over to the US.”

+++

Silly jag.
Assuming common sense would prevail in Canadian Judicial matters.
While I agree Canada should be Merciless to Meng and immediately deport her to the USA……….
It isnt about whether you’re guilty or innocent ( because most criminals spend little or no time behind bars….too expensive……)
No no.
When Frere Trudeau repatriated our constitution from England in the early 1980’s one legal scholar was heard to say, ” This has just created a hundred years of work for thousands of lawyers who will rewrite the Laws and generate precedent after precedent.”

#176 TurnerNation on 05.22.20 at 9:37 am

Here’s the New System thus far:

1. Local/Country governments have one task, that is work with the Queen’s bankers and take on more debt than humanly possible.
(Blog dog Carney was richly rewarded by the Crown in his new role).

2. Globally, day to day life is ruled by the Global government arms like the WHO.
Every single step we take (6-6-6 feet apart) is ruled by their orders.
All gatherings and events are banned.
We all are presumed Sick until proven Healthy.
(This is global medical martial law).

Rememberance Day this year will be fun eh?
Trapped at home giving thanks for umm those freedoms we used to have.
Oh yeah, local government’s job is also to cheerlead and brainwash us. Hence legal weed.

We are living the greatest mind control experiment ever. Results are positive.

#177 BrianT on 05.22.20 at 9:57 am

#103Lead-in terms of the highest real standard of living at the MEDIAN for Canadians the best year to have been born was 1938-that is what the stats show. Someone born in 1938 is not a boomer. That pre-boomer group was at the ideal age as the past war economy boomed like never before or since. OTOH there is a lot more opportunity now for a relatively small % of the overall population.

#178 Toronto_CA on 05.22.20 at 10:08 am

#43 the Jaguar on 05.21.20 at 4:48 pm
@#14 BillyBob on 05.21.20 at 2:52 pm

If a person wants to gift another person money which would be sufficient to purchase a property without mortgage financing I guess it would be up to the lawyer acting on for the purchaser to review funds to ensure they met Fintrac/Money Laundering legislation requirements. Good question for WUL, or better yet a BC lawyer if I am correct about where your property interest lies………
If any financing comes into play the down payment source would also be scrutinized in a similar manner and non repayable gift confirmation required by the donor, etc. Occupancy would also come up, i.e. classification of a ‘rental/second home’ versus primary residence. Loan to value lower likely in the environment going forward is my guess unless the credit pedigree of the borrower is high profile. Tax treatment on sale/capital gains and vacancy taxes could be an issue depending on location.
Goes without saying that the relationship of trust between family members would need to be undoubted, and I happen to know a few ‘stories’ in this regard. (not good ones).
The one thing I would wonder about would be something called “beneficial ownership’ and how the CRA might view it. Seems like a logical thought to take advantage of bargains that may be coming up, but Canada Revenue Agency likes things on the ‘up and up’, and they are getting much better at following the footprints in the snow. Maybe Garth or the ‘Toronto CA’ blogger knows about that aspect. Interesting opportunities ahead for sure………………
________________

So – under the Income Tax Act, in order for a property to qualify as your principal residence for a particular tax year, four criteria must be satisfied: the property must be a housing unit; you must own the property at least jointly; you or your spouse or kids must “ordinarily inhabit” the property; and you must “designate” the property as a principal residence.
Note that a seasonal residence, such as a cottage, cabin, lake house or even ski chalet can be considered to be “ordinarily inhabited in the year” even if you only use it during vacation periods “provided that the main reason for owning the property is not to gain or produce income.”

I would say that if parents bought a place for their kids, or even grandkids, to live in and then the offspring then claimed principal residence exemptions; it would not trigger any undue scrutiny from CRA.

If there’s no relation between the parties, and it is some deal to avoid tax, then yes, there’s a lot of issues with that as broad as general anti-avoidance rules (who doesn’t love GAAR?). Anyone acting as an agent for such schemes could be called into an investigation and fined/penalized as well.

Free tax advice, worth every penny.

#179 Phylis on 05.22.20 at 10:24 am

166 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.22.20 at 8:45 am
#122 april on 05.21.20 at 9:07 pm sez:
“#98 – look up the definition of a pandemic. Does Covid qualify?”
—————————————–
No.

————————————

Seems like the bond terms agree.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/deadly-virus-fails-to-trigger-world-bank-s-pandemic-bonds

#180 Sail Away on 05.22.20 at 10:26 am

#173 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.22.20 at 9:31 am
@#163 the jaguar

“This whole Meng Wenzhou debacle has gone on for too long. Tell them ( Chinese government) they have 48 hours to release the two Canadians being held or we hand her over to the US.”

——————-

Silly jag.

Assuming common sense would prevail in Canadian Judicial matters.

While I agree Canada should be Merciless to Meng and immediately deport her to the USA……….

——————-

What?! What did Meng ever do to Canada besides invest in our economy?

You want to use her as a pawn in a power play. That’s a dangerous approach that would never work the way you think it would.

#181 Sail Away on 05.22.20 at 10:52 am

Re: Billy Bob, gifting money for house purchase

Yes, money can be gifted freely and openly in Canada with no tax implications, since it’s after-tax money.

The recipient can then use the money as they choose.

#182 RobL on 05.22.20 at 10:57 am

#92 How does that work? Are they accepting share transfers? What sort of equity do their renters have? Or do they have partially owned properties and they are getting a larger share? Seems like just more confusion to me. on 05.21.20 at 7:25 pm
_____________

I think that they are talking about taking equity in the companies that are tenants of Brookfield and struggling to cover rent.

#183 not 1st on 05.22.20 at 11:09 am

#178 Sail Away on 05.22.20 at 10:26 am

Sail if you know anything about Chinese investment it usually comes with strings, either ownership, control or influence. They don’t just invest for a monetary return like you and I would.

The US has already warned us about letting Huawei into our comm backbone. I suggest we don’t piss off the last real ally we have. We are too weak and poorly lead to deal with China without the US at our back.

#184 MF on 05.22.20 at 11:13 am

72 Ace Goodheart on 05.22.20 at 9

I think it’s clear.

The $100,000 reduction is still not enough. Everything is overvalued by a lot more than that and should fall further.

MF

#185 not 1st on 05.22.20 at 11:19 am

Look at what the govt is doing now. Contact tracing with your phones. So if you come close in contact with someone, they will know and you can get a knock at your door from Trudeaus stormtroopers.

Leave your phones at home. I am not joining Orwells vision over a virus.

#186 Ronaldo on 05.22.20 at 11:39 am

#183 not 1st on 05.22.20 at 11:19 am
Look at what the govt is doing now. Contact tracing with your phones. So if you come close in contact with someone, they will know and you can get a knock at your door from Trudeaus stormtroopers.

Leave your phones at home. I am not joining Orwells vision over a virus.
——————————————————————
Most can’t stay away from their phone for more than a few seconds so that probably won’t happen.

The computer nerds are having a great time with this stuff right now. Not buying into it either.

#187 dogman01 on 05.22.20 at 11:45 am

Trudeau musing on Google\Apple Contact Tracing app for all Canadians….here it comes TurnerNation……

A few comments worth an Instant replay:

135 Neo on 05.21.20 at 10:13 pm

We’ve never had a pandemic where the average age of death exceeded the average age of death of a Canadian. 86 for Canadian dying of Covid. 82 for a Canadian dying in general. Also, never had a pandemic when zero deaths of anyone below 20. Real food for thought.

…………………………………………………………………………………………..

#150 NFN_NLN on 05.22.20 at 12:24 am

Hong Kong is the new Austria

Taiwan is the new Poland

Then Ladakh and Bhutan and Diaoyu Islands…

#188 Sail away on 05.22.20 at 11:48 am

#181 not 1st on 05.22.20 at 11:09 am
#178 Sail Away on 05.22.20 at 10:26 am

Sail if you know anything about Chinese investment it usually comes with strings, either ownership, control or influence. They don’t just invest for a monetary return like you and I would.

The US has already warned us about letting Huawei into our comm backbone. I suggest we don’t piss off the last real ally we have. We are too weak and poorly lead to deal with China without the US at our back.

—————

Haha, if you think I invest for only monetary return, you greatly misunderstand my empire-building strategy.

The only one Canada is pissing off here is China. Meng has broken no Canadian law. Trump dismisses Trudeau as a petulant child.

Canada is not willing to go to the lengths China is.

Consider this:
1. Canada threatens to allow Meng be extradited
2. China executes the two detained Canadians
3. Canada… err, um, uh…

How is this a win?

#189 dogman01 on 05.22.20 at 11:53 am

56 Stan Brooks on 05.22.20 at 4:55 am

“We need to consider both, but given Canada’s highly-oligarchic financial system and political structure, the latter seems like a very real possibility.”
They openly say it: highly oligarchic financial and political structure. The owners. You are just the stupid ill sheeple

…………………………………………………………………….

Yes – any outsider observing Canada in depth soon realizes this

“It is a Club, and you’re not in it”

The population are not citizens (you need to earn that responsibility) at best they are consumers, and since more consumers is better, immigration floods and debt.
Soon it looks like we will be tracked just like other livestock.

#190 Don Guillermo on 05.22.20 at 11:53 am

@#163 the jaguar
“This whole Meng Wenzhou debacle has gone on for too long. Tell them ( Chinese government) they have 48 hours to release the two Canadians being held or we hand her over to the US.”
*******************************************

… and we’ll hang the pandas

#191 BrianT on 05.22.20 at 11:54 am

#181-Not Ist-YES-there is nothing “free” about Communist China and nothing “free market” about doing business with Communist China. Communist China controls all major investment decisions by supposedly “free market” participants and this is done openly.

#192 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.22.20 at 11:56 am

@#178 Sail Away
“What did Meng ever do to Canada besides invest in our economy?”
+++
Splitting follicles again?
You know as well as I do that she was arrested on a US warrant.
A warrant that Canada is obliged, by Treaty, to execute .

I for one, would rather abide by US treaties than any “treaty” Communist China can dream up.
They go absolutely apeshite when we even talk to Taiwan…. .

#193 dogman01 on 05.22.20 at 12:00 pm

Twenty-eight soldiers test positive for COVID-19 after working in care homes

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/twenty-eight-soldiers-test-positive-for-covid-19-after-working-in-care-homes-1.4948771

The questions not answered: What are the symptoms of these likely fit soldiers?

Did they even know they had it?
Was it a cough and mild fever?
Was it a two week flu and pneumonia?

I get some people die, mainly over 70 and in ill health.

Here are the Alberta details: https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm

The Swedish Health authority was on BBC last night for a 15 min interview, nice to hear some Adult questions and answers, and not the infantile Canadian MSM.

#194 Attrition on 05.22.20 at 12:04 pm


#158 Stan Brooks on 05.22.20 at 5:07 am
#46 Attrition on 05.21.20 at 4:59 pm

It would be cute to be extremely naive even though it is dangerous, but you are really pathetic.

Parking space in Japan worth more than all RE in Cali? Really?

I was referring to the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo being worth more than that entire state of California, and wryly joking about that being about the size of a single parking space.

But you missed that, obviously.


Japan’s real estate bubble got so ‘irrationally exuberant’ that the grounds under Tokyo’s Imperial Palace were assessed at a value greater than the entire state of California. In the case of Japan, there was a correction in the market — a 15-year correction that is just now gathering steam again. (Aug 27, 2007)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japans-palace-grounds-once-more-valuable-than-california/

Facts is a beeatch, eh.

#195 BillyBob on 05.22.20 at 12:05 pm

#179 Sail Away on 05.22.20 at 10:52 am
Re: Billy Bob, gifting money for house purchase

Yes, money can be gifted freely and openly in Canada with no tax implications, since it’s after-tax money.

The recipient can then use the money as they choose.

=================================================

Thanks for the information Sail, that was my understanding as well. Was just curious if anyone knew differently from experience, not anecdotal hearsay nonsense about their Chinese neighbours ;-).

Of course if something like this was to proceed it would all be vetted by an accountant with international tax law experience.

#196 Howard on 05.22.20 at 12:11 pm

Re: the two Canadian hostages in China.

Frankly, it might be easiest in the long run to buy their freedom, whatever it takes, and then subsequently ban all travel of Canadians to China thereafter. If you choose to enter China via a third country, you’re on your own if things go sour.

It does amaze me how China seems so willing to make as many enemies as it possibly can.

#197 Sail away on 05.22.20 at 12:45 pm

#190 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.22.20 at 11:56 am
@#178 Sail Away

“What did Meng ever do to Canada besides invest in our economy?”

————–

Splitting follicles again?

You know as well as I do that she was arrested on a US warrant.

A warrant that Canada is obliged, by Treaty, to execute

————–

It’s not splitting hairs at all. Meng has been detained here in accordance with the treaty. All we can do is treat her respectfully while waiting for the legal determination to come down. She is a guest here and should be treated as such.

I was just responding to thoughts here that she should somehow be used as leverage. She shouldn’t be. Not in any way.

The detained Canadians are not her fault.

#198 P.Ooched on 05.22.20 at 2:13 pm

> Meanwhile the hardest-hit demographic in this Covid world is the young – people sub-30.

The 60+ crowd accounts for 95% of the 6062 deaths by Covid in Canada(as of 2020-05-21). They may take exception to your claim that the “under 30” crowd is the hardest hit demo.

I know, I know, this is not a virus blog, so I’m assuming your only talking about the “economic hits” on the potentially bleak economic road ahead.

And there will likely be many * more of them (750K+-) taking those ‘economic hits’, compared to the (6K+ and counting) 60+’ers who took the ‘ultimate hit’.

but like you say, the economy will come back, it always does.

In the meantime, it ain’t all bad, Rents are falling, vacancies are up, the prices for a lot of essential goods and services usually remain relatively stable in recessionary times, overvalued assets prices should move down, the investment markets are bubbling back up …

You just gotta get that job – in
1] a ‘buyers market’ for employers,
2] in a country where the traditional big economic drivers of drawing bituman and flipping condos are likely to be stagnant for a] a while, b] ever,
3] the countries biggest employer, our small business sector – is going to get, ummm – negatively impacted – , likely bigly

So, definitely some challenges on the road ahead there, we may have to get creative, innovative and try some things we haven’t tried before to get the Economic Recovery bus rolling, seems very un Canadian eh, but who knows, anything is possible, right?

As for selling your GTA SFD at todays current market values, that would certainly seem to be a gift horse absolutely worth taking a ride on, even if blog dogger Ace Goodheart’s anedata suggests that the primo GTA SFD’s ain’t selling.

When the second wave hits ( experts like BC’s Dr Henry, say its inevitable, Cdn Medical Assoc(CMA) president(Dr. S. Buchman) says were not ready ) and the economy ‘likely’ needs to downshift back into ‘mitigation mode’ and the tab really starts to rise, you may be wishing you had sold or at least tried.

More importantly tho, are you prepared for wave 2?

Remember, you have less than 120 days.

#199 Stuart Moir on 05.23.20 at 3:26 pm

The housing market is international so it is likely that international demand for housing in Canada will increase. Our cities are not crowded like Asia and we never had our liberties curtailed like countless oppressive government’s such as Spain. Imagine how mad you would be if you visited Spain for some sun and got locked up in your room for 2 months or had some fascist drone shouting at you if you walk in the park? Spanish officialdom know the benefit of vitamin D and sunshine so did they want people to develop weakened immunity? No one will forget the images from China of people being welded in their apartments or being herded into obviously dangerous wards with little regard what caused their symptoms during cold and flu season. And why did we see people dropping in the streets in China but nowhere else? People flee fear and countless people in more evil places have good reason to fear what may come in the future if they stay. If our governments here removed the ill considered taxes on foreign buyers we could attract debt free money to Canada and lessen the blow. We should not underestimate the damage to the economy with 30% of capital formation rendered bankrupt. I don’t see how the subway and elevator problems will be solved. We should take advantage of our space and disperse the population and grow every small town by eliminating the ridiculous zoning preventing house clusters. The future is single family home in clusters in rural areas. Clusters are needed to make services economic.