‘Too much of it’

Canada’s debt mess got real this week. Changes loom, including the doubling of required down payments for houses, tighter credit, more defaults, a brewing crisis in the autumn and falling real estate values.

The guy in charge of the nation’s housing agency had some shocking things to say when he addressed the House of Commons finance committee (of which I used to be a troublesome member). Evan Siddall is an enemy of the real estate cartel now. But he’s a burgeoning hero of the economy. Finally, a federal official with the stones to admit our house-lusty society has brought the country to a cliff. The virus pushed us hard along a predictable journey. It’s taken just a few weeks of pandemic to prove what this blog spewed for years. Property has pooched us.

With the economy collapsing by up to 40% in this current quarter and unemployment racing to 20%, Siddall warns it’s time politicians stop stoking real estate and face reality. “Homeownership is like blood pressure,” he told them. “You can have too much of it.”

And we do. Floating precariously upon an ocean of debt. Now for the consequences. Here are some of Siddall’s bombs

  • The number of people deferring mortgages for six months, already at an unprecedented level, is expected to grow steadily. 20% of everybody by September. Not good. “Just as governments are taking on more debt to finance the COVID-19 response, mortgage deferrals are adding to already historic levels of household indebtedness.”
  • Debt is washing over Canada. Before the virus household debt equaled 99% of the economy. That will explode to 130% by the autumn. “These ratios are well in excess of the 80 per cent threshold above which the Bank for International Settlements has shown that national debt intensifies the drag on GDP growth.
  • Debt in relation to income is already a disaster at 176%. Into next year that will become 200%.
  • Unemployed, indebted people don’t buy houses. CMHC says prices will tumble by up to 18% with a year. That’s a quarter million dollars off the average Vancouver detached house. “The resulting combination of higher mortgage debt, declining house prices and increased unemployment is cause for concern for Canada’s longer-term financial stability.”
  • There’s a ‘deferral cliff’ coming in September, “when some unemployed people will need to start paying their mortgages again. As much as one fifth of all mortgages could be in arrears if our economy has not recovered sufficiently.”
  • The virus, the economy, debt, deferrals and falling prices are toxic for new buyers. “We feel we need to avoid exposing young people (and through CMHC, Canadian taxpayers) to the amplified losses that result from falling house prices. Unless we act, a first time homebuyer purchasing a $300,000 home with a 5 per cent down payment stands to lose over $45,000 on their $15,000 investment if prices fall by 10 per cent.

Well, there you go. It doesn’t get much plainer. Apparently CMHC will be recommending to the Trudeau government the 5% down payment minimum be doubled. The agency wants to limit demand for housing, not encourage it. House prices and debt limits are “increasingly out of reach for young people,” and the virus has pushed us into a crisis of clarity.

In practical terms what does this mean?

Jacking the minimum to 10% (with a 5% mortgage stress test in place) would throw ice water on a market already hobbled by Covid. Meanwhile if 20% of all the mortgaged households in the land must defer monthly payments, how can they all resume in September when the jobless rate lingers over 15%? When the economy is a third smaller? When deferral means monthly payments are now greater? Impossible. So many will go into arrears.

Lots of families will have to sell. More listings. Fewer qualified buyers. This is why Evan Siddall says prices will fall. How could it be otherwise? The agency believes things will eventually improve – but that’s two years out. If a million households can’t last six weeks, how can they hang on until 2022?

“Trees don’t grow to the sky,” Siddall says. “The musical chairs game is going to come to an end. Young people, who are very highly leveraged will suffer.”

To my knowledge, this blog has never said this before. But here goes, without pleasure.

I told you so.

263 comments ↓

#1 BillyBob on 05.20.20 at 11:41 am

As I commented previously: time to rip off the bandaid.

Pain is an excellent teacher. Unfortunately deferring the pain for so many years is only gonna make it hurt more.

If an opportunity arises for a bargain I’m ready with cash, but only when the value proposition makes sense. It’s going to be interesting in September, and I’ll be watching this column for guidance the whole way.

#2 the Jaguar on 05.20.20 at 11:46 am

‘“Trees don’t grow to the sky,” Siddall says. “The musical chairs game is going to come to an end. Young people, who are very highly leveraged will suffer.”’

Evan Siddall. What a gem. Too bad he’s not running for the Convervative Party Leadership, because as Garth says, he actually has some cojones and the best interests of this country in mind.
Evan Siddall and Nigel Wright. Love them both.

#3 Stan Brooks on 05.20.20 at 11:46 am

So it is already official:

The beginning of the end for housing and the ‘economy’ based on mindless consumption, no savings and only debt.

The debt numbers quoted above will only get worse. In terms of total debt heading firmly to # 1 spot in the world. The implication on the currency will be absolutely horrific. The legacy of 2 incompetent bureaucrats at the helm of the central bank. To be paid by the prudent taxpayers, savers and retirees. As always. Congratulations to them.

I told you so. Enjoy the ride, the slope is mostly down for the next decade or two. This is not a normal recession, it is a structural problem of too much credit that can not be solved with monetary or fiscal ‘tools’.
The longer we persist in applying the wrong tools, the worst it will become in terms of productivity.

For the CMHC boss to make such statements: things must be really, really bad.

Cheers,

#4 I liked Ricky's version ... on 05.20.20 at 11:47 am

better … Itoadaso … has a certain ring to it. Finally someone stepping up to the plate … but will anyone who needs votes listen … let’s hope so but I’m not holding my breath.

#5 YouKnowWho on 05.20.20 at 11:48 am

Humans not able to touch each other. It’s the reality.

In today’s edition of humans not able to touch humans, Hall and Oats will tell us, we’re all fresh Out of Touch…with reality of debt! See what I did there?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_8KR-n2fBQ

#6 doger5 on 05.20.20 at 11:50 am

Sad for everyone .

#7 CanadIain on 05.20.20 at 11:52 am

With Junior in charge and debt exploding, I’m short Canada for the foreseeable future. Debt will be a huge drag on the economy and now the green nuts are planning to seize on this crisis to further shackle hardworking Canadians to the State.

What percentage of equities are other blog dogs keeping in Maple? Is it wise to ditch the entire lot until we get a grown up as PM?

#8 Stan Brooks on 05.20.20 at 11:54 am

Siddall actually said that:


The musical chairs game with housing is going to come to an end…and young people, who are very highly leveraged could suffer.

Debt-to-GDP ratios above 80% tend to intensify “the drag on GDP growth,” he stated, and Canada’s could reach 130% by Q3 before declining somewhat.

The more commonly cited debt-to-disposable income measure will climb from 176% (and we thought that was high) to as much as “230%…through 2021,” depending on how much GDP falls.

Delightful. Now there will be search for who to pay the bill. You have been warned loooooooooooong time ago.

Cheers,

#9 Buy? Curious? on 05.20.20 at 11:55 am

Garth! How are you? I haven’t read or commented on your gloriously invigorating blog that have been injected with new life for a while but what a time to be living in! Let me say this right off the top, I knew something like this would happen! Not a pandemic but I knew from a young age that school was a waste of time, career was illusionary and debt was a state of mind! Heck, I never even paid my late fees at Blockbuster let alone my student loans! Why? I knew at some point, it won’t matter! If I can offer your readers some advice, it would be to let it go. Let it all go! Don’t pay anything to anyone! Let‘s start a revolution without interrupting watching Tiger King!

Good luck everyone!

#10 Westcoaster on 05.20.20 at 11:56 am

Wow! It’s almost like he reads this pathetic blog. I mean virtually word for word and stat by stat. What we need now is some endorsement of our current reality on the parts of the political entities of all colours (red, blue, orange, green) so that the message gets through (I know – dreamer). This would be one small step in protecting especially those future buyers, who will also be left holding much of the debt bag for the furious (arguably necessary) spending we are seeing right now.

#11 Excilled on 05.20.20 at 11:57 am

Sir Garth:

So True!!

#12 SG01 on 05.20.20 at 11:58 am

Two black swan events in 10 years. We largely dodged a bullet (unlike the US) during the first – the subprime mortgage debacle and resulting credit crisis. It took the US 10 years to right size their housing market(s). I suspect our current situation will take at least a decade or more here given consumer debt levels..ouch!

#13 Leo on 05.20.20 at 11:58 am

No surprise here.

I feel bad for everyone that is in the unfortunate position of having to sell within the next year or so.

#14 Excilled on 05.20.20 at 11:58 am

Sir Garth:

So True!! Posting to quickly??

#15 Hairhead on 05.20.20 at 12:03 pm

There are going to be a lot of “I told you so’s” over the next few months covering:
– excessive outsourcing
– drawbacks of densification
– immigration without regard to underlying economy
– demented housing policy at municipal, provincial, and federal levels
– lack of national industrial policy
– lax regulation of credit, debt, and institutionalized usury (payday loan shops)

It’s about time we had thorough, clear-eyed discussion of all these issues. (Cue thanks to Garth for keeping at least a couple of these in the public eye.)

#16 ChrisfromCalgary on 05.20.20 at 12:09 pm

My next door neighbour – is a single woman with a professional sales job, nice house and two Audi’s. One New SUV and one V8 convertible. Very pleasant person. We were talking this past week and she is selling her house and moving in with her ex husband. She estimates for about one year. He is also in sales. Both their incomes devastated. Audi convertible went up for sale Saturday. If she can break even from when she bought it in 2008 she’ll be happy.
The s&$t is hitting the fan.

#17 broader mind on 05.20.20 at 12:16 pm

The very reasons that our government will act to shore up house prices. Print more money from thin air, budgets are self balancing. Keep the game going at all cost.There are property taxes that must go up. We need ever higher values to keep society (serfs) in place.Who cares if a loaf of bread is $500 and working at Wallmart pays a few million a year. Your house is worth 500 million but your still a working stiff. Siddall and Garth may think logically but it’s not popular,so it will not happen.

#18 Stan Brooks on 05.20.20 at 12:17 pm

What did I say?


https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-records-negative-annual-inflation-130053577.html

But food prices rose by 3.4% in April from the year-earlier period, pushed up by demand for staples like rice (+9.2%), eggs (+8.8%) and margarine (+7.9%). On a monthly basis, household cleaning products posted a 4.6% gain.

“Prices for essentials matter more at this stage,” noted Josh Nye, senior economist at RBC Economics. “In that sense, an increase in food prices in April likely hurts more than a drop in gasoline prices helps.”

Note that ‘inflation’ is negative….

#19 Stan Brooks on 05.20.20 at 12:26 pm

#17 broader mind on 05.20.20 at 12:16 pm

And your ‘inflation adjusted’ CPP will be less than a bread a month as interest rates can not rise… Do we smell Venezuela style ‘boom’?

Whatever will happen will happen and incompetent politicians can do nothing to prevent it.

And yes, it is hitting the fan.

#20 Overheardyou on 05.20.20 at 12:31 pm

Asking for a friend, how do you remove someone out of your investment property, if they illegally broke in and squatted there for a month before you realized it?

#21 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 12:32 pm

Yep, if you want that luxury car or have been keeping an eye on a special piece of property, vultch time approacheth.

Decent time right now for cars, but give the property another 6 months or so.

I greatly enjoy buying small acreages, 5-10 acres or so, in areas bordering Crown land, with water and historical access. For me, the best are in good hunting/fishing territory, and for my wife and daughter, in good horse-riding territory. Then haul out the full-size tipi and set up camp. No other improvements and never a permanent structure.

#22 majik on 05.20.20 at 12:36 pm

Acquaintance owns a couple of investment properties though no way could salary alone support them. In the last year they leveraged all the other properties to purchase another $1m property for themselves, again no way could salary support this mortgage. Now one of their renters has stopped paying rent and this house of cards begins to tumble. They were active members in the cult that is REIN.

#23 Kamloops Dan on 05.20.20 at 12:38 pm

Does this mean no more tats and BMW’s for the free lunch crowd??? The correction will come hard and fast.

#24 baloney Sandwitch on 05.20.20 at 12:42 pm

“I told you so”, indeed. You have been telling us a couple of times a month for the last many years. That is why you are the 1%. People just don’t get it.
Reminds me of the quote,
“How Did You Go Bankrupt?” “Two Ways. Gradually and Then Virally.”
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2018/08/06/bankrupt/

#25 Marco on 05.20.20 at 12:46 pm

And by the way I am confused by cheering investors with well balanced portfolios. Cheering for what? For your neighbor and human to lost money, I mean home? That is a part of psychological moat to guarantee your success in rentier capitalism? Better clean that mold from your shacks, all of your “houses” smell bad because of poor skill of people who built it.

#26 Marco on 05.20.20 at 12:48 pm

Oh, and stop living in basements and stop wrap upholstered furniture in plastic wraps to last longer. Investors.

#27 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 12:49 pm

#20 Overheardyou on 05.20.20 at 12:31 pm

Asking for a friend, how do you remove someone out of your investment property, if they illegally broke in and squatted there for a month before you realized it?

————

Use the government’s economic approach: First, wait until they’re out of the house for safety’s sake. Then burn it down.

#28 X on 05.20.20 at 12:50 pm

10% down makes sense, new buyers have more skin in the game to protect in downturn. When it wasn’t broken, I don’t know why they ‘fixed’ it to 5%. Return the downpayment to the historical norm.

#29 theoryAndPractice on 05.20.20 at 12:54 pm

I’d say very optimistic outlook ! It needs to be revised further down the road to 2022.

#30 broader mind on 05.20.20 at 1:00 pm

#19 Stan, so your saying it’s different this time. All is lost.

#31 ADH on 05.20.20 at 1:05 pm

I’ve been looking at house prices in Canadian cities and larger US ones such as Dallas and Atlanta. I think if other people saw this and what you can buy south of the border for under 400k detached 2200+ square feet relative to what we can barely do here they would realize how foolish we have been to this system. A 50% correction would barely do future generations justice, never mind this 18% or 30% nonsense. That still renders homes unattainable given the median and average wages in Canada and the GDP per capita. Give your heads a shake. Seriously, look at a new house prices in rural Ontario for 760k then head south. It can be done. The other problem is who will afford that 900k townhouse house in Mississauga when you want to sell? Not our future gens or new immigrants….

#32 JB on 05.20.20 at 1:14 pm

#21 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 12:32 pm

Yep, if you want that luxury car or have been keeping an eye on a special piece of property, vultch time approacheth.

Decent time right now for cars, but give the property another 6 months or so.

I greatly enjoy buying small acreages, 5-10 acres or so, in areas bordering Crown land, with water and historical access. For me, the best are in good hunting/fishing territory, and for my wife and daughter, in good horse-riding territory. Then haul out the full-size tipi and set up camp. No other improvements and never a permanent structure.
…………………………………………………………………..
I need a new car going to wait until the fall as the car companies will be hurting badly and will offer at cost just to keep the machine oiled.

#33 Howard on 05.20.20 at 1:23 pm

As I stated in yesterday’s blog, I think the CMHC is a despicable, market-meddling, anti-taxpayer abomination of an organization.

Evan Siddall seems to be one of the good guys, but ultimately he is irrelevant.

T2 will never grant him the doubling of the DP minimum or any other cooling policies he is seeking.

The Liberals would prefer the government simply start paying people’s mortgages for them until unemployment drops and hope increased immigration and a hands-off (i.e. encouraging) approach to money-laundering will keep housing buoyant until they are inevitably turfed from office, leaving it to the Conservatives to clean up the mess.

#34 NewWest on 05.20.20 at 1:24 pm

So what is going to happen to all the new construction in the lower mainland? Houses, condos, towers going up so fast now it seems like the developers are in a race against time.

I drove down 10th the other day, and a lot that had a tiny old house on it in February now has a completed mega mansion on it. My sister lives in Maple Ridge, and is shocked at the pace of construction. Townhouses going up in three months, shovel in the ground to for sale sign in front. Thousands of them down the valley. There are seven cranes near the intersection at Lougheed and North Road, how many towers going up there? Who is going to buy these things? I can’t believe that all the presales are going to complete. Downtown New Westminster, same thing – four towers going up downtown right now within a six block radius of Columbia and Begbie, two of them actually in the Fraser River, I kid you not. The Royal Towers is scheduled to come down to be replaced by condo buildings as well, two forty storey towers and two townhouse buildings.

At the same time the “for rent” signs are starting to appear on storefronts in downtown New Westminster. The Army and Navy closed. Retail taking a huge hit in the local area.

There is such a disconnect out here. I was buying tomato plants on the weekend and overheard a young guy, maybe in his late 20s, telling an older couple that his investment condo had been an excellent investment. “I put every penny I had into it,” he said, “all my savings. And the value has just gone up! I’ve probably made $50,000.” From what I gather he bought a year or so ago, and I don’t think that there is anyone in it. Wow. Just wow.

It sure doesn’t seem like the unemployment rate is 15% out here, or that anyone has to defer payments on mortgages or credit cards or car payments. What am I missing? Or is this just the first stage of the tsunami, the water drawing back from the shore, the deceptive calm?

#35 Not 1st on 05.20.20 at 1:33 pm

Garth what is the sector or industry that will lead us out if this!

If there are none then shouldn’t the Feds be working on s national infrastructure program to spark it? What else is there?

#36 1-800-DOCTORB on 05.20.20 at 1:34 pm

The Cons don’t want to win the next election. Who would? The Libs will be stuck with the mess they created. It turns out that jobs and a functioning economy are actually important.

#37 dogman01 on 05.20.20 at 1:39 pm

#3 Stan Brooks on 05.20.20 at 11:46 am

Larry Berman musing on the same theme.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/larry-berman-the-moral-hazard-of-government-largesse-1.1437148

…………………………………………………………………………………………….

#15 Hairhead on 05.20.20 at 12:03 pm

Our “Minister of Middle Class Prosperity” should place your post on their wall where they can read it every day….it is so simple and that tells me our Government does not work in the interests of Canadians.

How about a functioning financial and social system instead of globalist post national dystopia?

1) Bring back factories. If the trade value is not reciprocal then Tariff the heck out of the predatory “Trade Partner”
2) Don’t bail out any corporation or homeowners mortgages.
3) End immigration floods\TFW (stop distorting and the oversupply of the Labour market)
4) End foreign home buyers
5) Raise interest rates so people can put money in the bank, shun debt and build their savings.
6) An Industrial\Economic strategy, like a plan with a10-20-30 year outlook.

Shelter costs need to go way down, this basic necessity is massively inflated from the last recession and has sunk the young.
We need basic intelligence not a basic income.

#38 Calgary retiree on 05.20.20 at 1:40 pm

Various Canadian governments have worked hard to create the housing disaster.

For example, the Conservatives under Mulroney, after much lobbying by the real estate industry, created the Home Buyer’s Plan in 1993. Buyers can now borrow from their RRSP’s to create a down payment. What could go wrong?

Immigration is a taboo subject on this blog, but it has greatly increased the demand side of the supply/demand in the housing market. The real estate prices in the Vancouver and Toronto areas have been the result.

Real estate was the single largest contributor to the Canadian GDP in 2018. This industry is still a very powerful lobby and they will no doubt dictate federal policies in their interest.

https://www.investorsfriend.com/canadian-gdp-canadian-imports-and-exports/

#39 Bob Dog on 05.20.20 at 1:43 pm

Just a reminder that the bankers have done nothing wrong and no banker deserves to be put to death.

#40 Attrition on 05.20.20 at 1:51 pm

Garth, you are gracious in victory.

You’ve been portending the downfall of real estate in Canada for decades. I promised to never call you a broken clock again, and I won’t.

“Looks like you were right after all,” is what I should say. But really, who didn’t see a RE correction coming (other perhaps than Cap’n Uppa)?

I don’t want to dwell on the coming RE price collapse/buying opportunity. This is, after all, a manufactured correction. A setup on the way up, a setup on the way down. It’s what they do. This isn’t news.

I’ll add: expect rates to be at 8%-10% within three years–this has always accompanied these manufactured corrections. We ain’t Japan. Plus you know, high rates will also protect the ‘plebs from buying land…

The real question here–which I find odd that you’ve either ignored or missed–is why in the hell is it any business of government if a greater fool wants to over leverage themselves and buy a property they can’t afford?

Who is gov’t to judge? I bought my first 3 properties thanks to mortgage brokers with questionable scruples.

Two years later, prices dropped, rates jumped, payments almost tripled. So I sold a few things, got roommates, stopped spending for a couple years, and held on for the recovery. It worked out well and not just financially.

Now government wants to take away this opportunity and make that even harder for young people. Is this the new normal they’ve been going on about?

Gov gets to decide who can buy, gets to protect the young from so-called reckless decision making which–it must be said–far more often than not leads to wealth creation and not bankruptcy or strife?

No doubt the legions of unaware pinkos in Canada are just fine with this. Heck, even you Garth: you’re practically celebrating a $%#&@! Federal bureaucrat for mentioning it.

When governments mess with the free market, it never ever work out well, always backfires, and needlessly punishes citizens.

Give yourselves a round of applause, all ye who voted once way or another for Neo-liberalism, social democracy and socialism.

You’re about to reap.

Just watch what’s going to happen to municipal, city, provincial and federal services. Now you see why there’s been such a push for bike lanes: they’re all any city will be able to maintain, and all anyone will be able to afford.

A future of pot holes, closed roads, smaller police forces, reduced fire stations, shorter municipal service hours, unmaintained parks, unfulfilled pension obligations, higher fees, and massively higher debt servicing costs for every indebted public body and institution.

All totally avoidable and yet utterly predictable and eminently inevitable.

I’ve got my popcorn, and this Gen X’er will enjoy seeing both spoiled Boomers and their entitled Millennial offspring struggle to adapt to the new reality they’ve created.

#41 Grunt on 05.20.20 at 1:52 pm

Wonder if RV motorhome sales will spike from fear of hotels, flying, taking the train etc?

#42 Axehead on 05.20.20 at 1:55 pm

What about Provincial debt? What about municipal debt? Who is going to bail out who? Too many questions and only one answer. Stay out of the poker game if you have no stones.

#43 The Past & The Future on 05.20.20 at 2:01 pm

“ I told you so.”
————————
After 12+ years, you may, finally be right. We’ll see!

With the better part of a million people unable to pay their mortgages I think the question has been answered. – Garth

#44 Faron on 05.20.20 at 2:04 pm

In my opinion, the private lenders and the banking system needs to eat/write down exactly as much of the debt as they can and still remain functional. The paying of dividends in the worse case scenario is downright criminal. (I say that as a holder of CDN banks for their dividends).

This collapse could “work” if deflation and wage loss could happen in sync. Basically we all just “agree” that the whole economy is now worth less (or worthless), assets are worth less and wages need to drop. The pain in any economic event is in the transition to a new equilibrium.

Of course, all of the debt makes this impossible. Wages will drop, deflation will occur but the debt will remain in the hands of those that hold it. Either banks take massive hits including the failures of some or the government assumes as much of the mess as is needed to keep enough of the gears grinding to prevent starvation. In that case it gets paid back over generations if ever. No matter what, it will drag on the economy (global) for a loooong time.

No matter how you look at it, the low interest rate environment was a MASSIVE underestimation of global financial risk. That is plain to see now that debt is at a peak and the whole works is about to reorganize to put it mildly.

God speed you all. It’s coming for you (me).

#45 bob on 05.20.20 at 2:07 pm

Hi Garth,
If you get no pleasure saying “I told you so”

I think that means you have the mettle to run for office again for the betterment of Canadians. Want to re-consider? You’d have my vote.

#46 Lambchop on 05.20.20 at 2:08 pm

In light of the recent confessions/revelations by CMHC and Mr. Siddall, seems like the banks will be forced to react, with or without the federal gov’t.

Are we headed for stupid-high 80s style interest rates along with tighter restrictions?

Early renewal for mortgages might be prudent, while the gettin’s still good.

I don’t see lending going in a good direction for borrowers.

#47 Dolce Vita on 05.20.20 at 2:10 pm

I told you so. Yes you did.

Time to pay the piper.

#48 Sold Out on 05.20.20 at 2:12 pm

As I stated in yesterday’s blog, I think the CMHC is a despicable, market-meddling, anti-taxpayer abomination of an organization.

Evan Siddall seems to be one of the good guys, but ultimately he is irrelevant.

T2 will never grant him the doubling of the DP minimum or any other cooling policies he is seeking.

The Liberals would prefer the government simply start paying people’s mortgages for them until unemployment drops and hope increased immigration and a hands-off (i.e. encouraging) approach to money-laundering will keep housing buoyant until they are inevitably turfed from office, leaving it to the Conservatives to clean up the mess.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Hahahaha. You mean the same Conservatives that had an opportunity to prevent this entirely predictable outcome, back in 2008? That actively encouraged 40 year amorts and 0% down? That recently ran on a housing policy platform indistinguishable from the Libs and NDP?

https://www.ratespy.com/history-of-mortgage-rule-changes-03255560

#49 Faron on 05.20.20 at 2:17 pm

#35 Not 1st on 05.20.20 at 1:33 pm

Garth what is the sector or industry that will lead us out if this!

If there are none then shouldn’t the Feds be working on s national infrastructure program to spark it? What else is there?

———————————————–

Good question. Canada has the sleekest LEED certifed spankin’ new condos and the infrastructure of the poorest European countries. Seems like driving your lambo would be crap with so many bad roads around.

Funny aside: in last month’s US employment report the employment dispersion (breadth of up or down swings) was talked about. Of something like three sectors that gained in employment, one was the Federal Reserve banking system. Hilarious…

#50 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 2:24 pm

When I buy land or a house, I consider it a sunk cost. Now I own it and value fluctuation is irrelevant.

Except for the Vancouver house- that I do want to sell for as much as possible. Worst case, though, my son continues to live there through his engineering degree at UBC. No biggie.

#51 Tactless Capital on 05.20.20 at 2:25 pm

I won’t believe it until I see it and it would be a very sad “I told you so” for many Canadians. Christmas won’t be so cheerful.

The only good I see that will come out of this is that the next generation will become super savers.

#52 Dolce Vita on 05.20.20 at 2:29 pm

What’s really sad?

Reading Cdn MSM headlines about Sidall’s comments, were all about RE values or something else (e.g., Financial Post, Bloomberg: “Housing Agency Sees Prices Falling Up To 18%, May Curb Underwriting”…nothing from CBC, CTV, Global as they are awaiting their press release about what to say from Trudeau…meanwhile medical masks as news will have to do).

Tells you what a Unnatural National Obsession RE has become in Canada, if that that’s all they get out of it (and the medical masks).

Outside of yourself Garth, about the only other 2 people that “get it” in the Public Domain were Jesse Snyder at the National Post with this headline:

“‘Bloody terrifying’: COVID-19 will raise household debt levels and ‘drag on GDP growth,’ CMHC warns”

The other guy, MP Pierre Poilievre, whom Snyder quoted in the first 2 words of the headline.

—————————–

Sad. True.

#53 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 05.20.20 at 2:34 pm

Don’t worry guys……….I got this.

#54 Faron on 05.20.20 at 2:39 pm

#173 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 12:15 pm
#171 Faron on 05.20.20 at 11:54 am

On the military and worker mobility.

It’s true that one can join the military, but should that really be the only option? As much as you think everyone should be like you, we are luckily that it’s not the case. In the US it means a real likelihood that you are then sending the poorest off to face death which seems like a poor means of improving a life. And you recognize that that is a fully tax-funded and corporate giveaway of a work-training program, right? The US does have alternatives that (I think) Canada lacks. Americorps and Peacecorps for two.

I’ve long been a quiet proponent of mandatory national service either military or civil. You get paid a livable wage, some needed work gets done and you’ve earned your place in the country. Voters would have a better sense of what the military actually is and hopefully it would give the gov’t a bit more pause when sending folks into global scraps. Plus you get exposed to new career options and don’t turn into a right-down-the-chute academe like myself.

As for minimum wage and geographical economic mobility. Minimum wage is lower elsewhere by a couple of bucks, so there’s that. But, yeah, while I would prefer that people could choose where to live rather than become economic migrants, it seems strange to me that more people don’t seek opportunity elsewhere. Maybe living in WinnaGinaToon doesn’t allow one to live their #BestLyfe. Or maybe they don’t want to live in NS because they are afraid of Garth’s chiseled abs.

#55 Marco on 05.20.20 at 2:39 pm

#50 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 2:24 pm
…………………………………………………………
Well, at speed you are buying real estate in Canada, I think The Queen , soon going to be minority owner….

#56 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 2:40 pm

I needed $22k in cash and had no problem/no questions withdrawing from TD. Took it out over 3 days and told them a day ahead of time to ensure they had cash on hand.

Wish they would bring back the $1,000 bill.

I was expecting to be questioned after blogdogs reported being questioned for $2 and $3k cash withdrawals. But nope, nothing.

#57 conan on 05.20.20 at 2:42 pm

We need someone to donate 6 milion dollars to the NDP so they can afford a federal election. I know we have Covid going on but Canada really needs an election.
I am going to bristle some hairs here, but whatever, the Cons have too many seats.

#58 Do we have all the facts on 05.20.20 at 2:42 pm

One touchy subject that our governments seem to be avoiding is the impact of Covid 19 on immigration. It was anticipated that Canada would welcome 340,000 new citizens in 2020 and it is difficult to see how this target will be reached.

Whether the Government of Canada wants to admit it or not it has been the arrival of over 6,000,000 new citizens since 1990 that has increased the demand for housing and led to the escalation of house prices and the generation of trillions of dollars in wealth for Canadians citizens.

Without immigration the demand for housing would barely support the construction of 100,000 new units per year, including replacements. Once supply became equal to, or greater than, demand the average price or average rent would fall.

Quite simply real estate activity supported by immigration became a crucial component of the Canadian economy. Once the wagon was hitched the Government of Canada had no choice but to introduce policies and legislation designed to stimulate housing demand and support the accumulation of additional debt.

As the head honcho at CMHC noted Economics 101 teaches that when supply exceeds demand prices will increase. Since 2000 the average Canadian homeowner realized a gain of $340,000. However this gain was achieved by assuming average of $300,000 in mortgage debt.

In good times mortgage debt can be repaid from earnings with little risk. When times become tight the whole deck of cards begins to crumble and demand disintegrates. The rate of crumble would definitely escalate if the interest charged on outstanding debts was to increase.

If unemployment rates hit 15%, or more, what will Canada have to offer 340,000 immigrants even if travel restrictions are lifted.

It is time to face facts and accept the reality that demand for housing in Canada will fall in 2020 and that any decline demand will result in a reduction in house prices until unemployment rates are reduced.

We desperately need our Governments to take their heads out of the sand and start focussing on ways to stimulate growth of our shrinking GDP.

Chop chop boys and girls!!!

#59 How long until its over on 05.20.20 at 2:43 pm

Who wants to predict the % drop from now to the bottom?
My guesses:
Toronto: 50%
Vancouver:40%
Calgary: 30%

#60 Sold Out on 05.20.20 at 2:44 pm

#50 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 2:24 pm
When I buy land or a house, I consider it a sunk cost. Now I own it and value fluctuation is irrelevant.

Except for the Vancouver house- that I do want to sell for as much as possible. Worst case, though, my son continues to live there through his engineering degree at UBC. No biggie.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

You held on to a sinking asset in order to provide student housing, losing out on 100s of 1000s of $ in the process, when rent would have been maybe $12,000 but it’s “no biggie”?

But hey, you dodged the empty home tax, and lowered any potential new CG tax you eventually pay. Hope it’s worth it.

#61 Linda on 05.20.20 at 2:45 pm

Recommended does not a government decision make. I agree that returning to a 10% downpayment would be a good thing. What I doubt is whether our government will make the hard decisions that are required to stop the debt madness. So much easier to shift the blame to anyone who was fiscally prudent (cue: Greedy Landlords!!!) & especially to impose higher taxes upon ‘the rich’ in order to pay for government largesse.

#62 Dolce Vita on 05.20.20 at 2:48 pm

Well, I saw this on a lot of news feeds the other day. Scared me that’s for sure. As of yesterday, they are not admitting WHO experts into that country to assess what’s going on.

Ya, that’s 108 million in a new lockdown, well, so they say:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-18/over-100-million-in-china-s-northeast-thrown-back-under-lockdown

————————

What beats me is that no one seems to care, no Comments on Twitter (unusual to say the least).

I suppose everyone has had it up to their eyebrows with the DAMN VIRUS and cannot stomach anymore bad news.

Well, there it is. Is it a warning of what is yet to come?

I hope not.

I was SO looking forward to resuming traveling Il Bel Paese after June 3rd.

#63 Leftover on 05.20.20 at 2:48 pm

“For Sale” signs popping up like weeds in my neighbourhood this week. Kinda think the cat is out of the bag.

As for our economy, Canada will lag because we don’t know how to start things up. Example – I bought 2 shirts online on May 4th, one from Canada, one from the USA.

USA shirt showed up a week later, still waiting for the Canadian one. Canada Post notes that, “We are experiencing delivery delays due to Covid-19”.

No kidding.

#64 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 05.20.20 at 2:48 pm

The solution is very simple. Bring on multi-generational mortgages. 100 years mortgage ( or 100 – dwelling age) should be just fine. I also can see an abundance of ” Interest only ” mortgages . The newly implemented UBI following an election action where NDP/ Liberals will win can make everyone a home owner. Let’s face reality in the face: the Conservative party doesn’t have a compelling platform or leader and will not win the next election. The alternative will focus on social stability at all costs else we end like like Lebanon or Venezuela.

#65 Habitt on 05.20.20 at 2:50 pm

Scary stuff. Where is millennial realist? So gotta feel for younger folk. What a mess

#66 Bidding Wars on 05.20.20 at 2:53 pm

“I told you so.”
……………………………

Maybe not…

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/coronavirus-bidding-wars-in-a-pandemic-housing-is-heating-up-fast.html

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.20 at 2:53 pm

Vancouver has been booming for 30 years, BC somewhat less than that.
Its been at least a generation where no one remembers the 80’s recession.
People cannot comprehend the idea that their job is redundant or irrelevant.
We are long, long long over due for this economic kick in the teeth..

#68 NotLegalAdvice on 05.20.20 at 2:56 pm

Oh boy, maybe I shouldn’t have bought a house…..in Guelph!

#69 Ed McNeil on 05.20.20 at 2:58 pm

Many older people realized this must happen. You simply cannot charge your way out of every debt situation. Working class people taking cruises and jetting to foreign hinterlands: who’d a thunk? This may be a long and very hard lesson for many. Although I sympathize with those in financial distress, the majority of them will carry on with the same reckless behaviour when this has passed.

#70 Captain Uppa on 05.20.20 at 3:00 pm

With the better part of a million people unable to pay their mortgages I think the question has been answered. – Garth

————————

Lol, it took a global pandemic and subsequent work economic crash. Hardly a victory lap for you, sir. And I don’t see GTA prices moving that much.

We’ll see come September.

#71 Dolce Vita on 05.20.20 at 3:02 pm

#53 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine

THAT was good.

I think you just came up with the CTV, CBC and Global press release from Trudeau about what Siddall had to say.

#72 Forest on 05.20.20 at 3:05 pm

Saw a brand new range rover pull up to my condo building to deliver skip the dishes yesterday. Says it all…

#73 Karl Lang on 05.20.20 at 3:17 pm

ElGatoNerodeYVR on 05.20.20 at 2:48 pm
100 year mortgage
————————
That is too funny.
No house built in the last 10 years will last that long.
The shoddy construction of new homes will almost guarantee that the houses will collapse in 30/40 years.

#74 Ferry Boy on 05.20.20 at 3:20 pm

My take ..T2 does not intend to be around as leader for the next election..nor Morneau for that matter… on the other things. So they will continue to spend, spend, spend.

And the next PM and Finance Minister will have the toughest jobs in the country ..

#75 Suhail on 05.20.20 at 3:24 pm

Thank God we were outbid for a condo selling for $475,000.
Sitting pretty in a rental paying paltry amount of $1400 for a 1+1.

#76 Stoner on 05.20.20 at 3:25 pm

I like Evan Siddal and agree with him. However he is done with CMHC soon and on his way out. So I doubt if any of his words will carry weight with the politicians. No politician will want to play the role of a someone who takes the easy money away. The housing gasbag will not be allowed to deflate unless it is forced on Canada by a hardcore economic crash and bond holders losing confidence in Canadian economy and currency.

#77 Lead Paint on 05.20.20 at 3:29 pm

Impossible. Brad Lamb has promised a positive cashflow and return on all the condos he has sold. No way someone would lie about that!

#78 Dolce Vita on 05.20.20 at 3:31 pm

One glaring omission by Siddall was this:

That it was willing to take up to $150 Billion worth of loans off of banks’ books (mortgages).

And:

CMHC says all of the pools of mortgages that would be transferred are already insured by the government anyway, so there’s NO ADDITIONAL RISK to taxpayers from the transaction.

———————————

Either Evan is speaking out of both sides of his mouth (to the Finance Committee vis a vis the Above) OR he has had one BIG change of heart. I vote the latter.

The guy has been outspoken in the past and I guess he only did ($150 Billion Bank bailout of junk mortgages) as he was told by his political masters.

Good, he told the truth. Hopefully it doesn’t cost him his job.

Canada needs more people like Siddall in Gov positions of trust.

#79 BillyBob on 05.20.20 at 3:33 pm

I will just say what everyone is thinking…

WHERE IS HAPPY HOUSING CRASH GUY?!

Oh yeah. Speaking rhetorically, what are the rules about a Canadian non-resident gifting a ton of money to a sibling Canadian resident if that sibling resident then chooses of their totally free will to then use that money to buy a depressed-price house? I heard something about a foreigner tax or something, but if the buyer is a bona fide resident no worries, right?

Asking for a friend.

#80 Sold Out on 05.20.20 at 3:36 pm

#73 Karl Lang on 05.20.20 at 3:17 pm
ElGatoNerodeYVR on 05.20.20 at 2:48 pm
100 year mortgage
————————
That is too funny.
No house built in the last 10 years will last that long.
The shoddy construction of new homes will almost guarantee that the houses will collapse in 30/40 years.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The value is in the land.

#81 JB on 05.20.20 at 3:47 pm

#43 The Past & The Future on 05.20.20 at 2:01 pm

“ I told you so.”
————————
After 12+ years, you may, finally be right. We’ll see!

With the better part of a million people unable to pay their mortgages I think the question has been answered. – Garth
…………………………………………………………….
Uncle Justin has tons of money to help. Our money mind you!

#82 NigelM on 05.20.20 at 3:48 pm

I’m based in Nova Scotia where incomes are typically lower but housing is more reasonably priced. I’ve been surprised at the price tag on new housing developments cropping up outside of Halifax and wondered how people were affording them. I assume debt.. This is going to take a sledgehammer to over priced property like this.

My question is, do you think the traditional affordable housing in NS might be become in demand again for buyers as they attempt to live within their means, new down payment minimums, etc.

Similar to your own story about leaving Toronto, Nova Scotia could be a popular destination for those over leveraged in Ontario (especially with WFH becoming a new full time reality for many).

#83 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 3:48 pm

#60 Sold Out on 05.20.20 at 2:44 pm
#50 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 2:24 pm

When I buy land or a house, I consider it a sunk cost. Now I own it and value fluctuation is irrelevant.

Except for the Vancouver house- that I do want to sell for as much as possible. Worst case, though, my son continues to live there through his engineering degree at UBC. No biggie.

—————

You held on to a sinking asset in order to provide student housing, losing out on 100s of 1000s of $ in the process, when rent would have been maybe $12,000 but it’s “no biggie”?

But hey, you dodged the empty home tax, and lowered any potential new CG tax you eventually pay. Hope it’s worth it.

—————

Like I said… sunk cost, no biggie. It’s free and clear.

Bought for $900k with personal corp. in 2010. Assessment peaked $2.7M in 2017, $2.4 in 2018, now $2.044.

It’s used all the time. Full house during the 2010 Olympics, lots of family all through the year, I stay there when in town for work, son stays during UBC. Group of 9 Rotary peace ambassadors stayed for 2 weeks in 2018.

It’s pretty useful; probably more for political capital than anything else. Might not sell after all.

#84 JB on 05.20.20 at 3:51 pm

#58 Do we have all the facts on 05.20.20 at 2:42 pm

One touchy subject that our governments seem to be avoiding is the impact of Covid 19 on immigration. It was anticipated that Canada would welcome 340,000 new citizens in 2020 and it is difficult to see how this target will be reached.

Whether the Government of Canada wants to admit it or not it has been the arrival of over 6,000,000 new citizens since 1990 that has increased the demand for housing and led to the escalation of house prices and the generation of trillions of dollars in wealth for Canadians citizens.

Without immigration the demand for housing would barely support the construction of 100,000 new units per year, including replacements. Once supply became equal to, or greater than, demand the average price or average rent would fall.

Quite simply real estate activity supported by immigration became a crucial component of the Canadian economy. Once the wagon was hitched the Government of Canada had no choice but to introduce policies and legislation designed to stimulate housing demand and support the accumulation of additional debt.

As the head honcho at CMHC noted Economics 101 teaches that when supply exceeds demand prices will increase. Since 2000 the average Canadian homeowner realized a gain of $340,000. However this gain was achieved by assuming average of $300,000 in mortgage debt.

In good times mortgage debt can be repaid from earnings with little risk. When times become tight the whole deck of cards begins to crumble and demand disintegrates. The rate of crumble would definitely escalate if the interest charged on outstanding debts was to increase.

If unemployment rates hit 15%, or more, what will Canada have to offer 340,000 immigrants even if travel restrictions are lifted.

It is time to face facts and accept the reality that demand for housing in Canada will fall in 2020 and that any decline demand will result in a reduction in house prices until unemployment rates are reduced.

We desperately need our Governments to take their heads out of the sand and start focussing on ways to stimulate growth of our shrinking GDP.

Chop chop boys and girls!!!
……………………………………………………..
Where are these immigrants coming from England? Most of the immigrants coming here can hardly afford a home. They are all Liberal voters with the promise of a better tomorrow from the man behind the curtain.

#85 Jimers on 05.20.20 at 3:58 pm

Here are the 10 steps you should employ, if you want to turn an unthreatening virus into a global power grab;

1. Start with a poorly defined virus, add an inaccurate test for it, and encourage as many terminally or critically ill people as possible to be repeat tested until they test positive.
2. Report your inevitably very high death rates and get vague about whether these people died OF the virus or simply WITH it.
3. Create a ‘response’ to the ‘crisis’ that rolls out a vast network of authoritarian measures, some of which have been in planning for a long while, and only a minority of which have any possible application to pandemic-prevention. (Make sure to cancel elections until further notice and to hugely increase police powers of arrest and surveillance)
4. Shut down your hospitals to all but ‘covid cases’. Cancel elective surgeries, kidney dialysis, cancer treatments, normal GP consultations and all “non-emergency healthcare”. Thus inevitably increasing all-cause mortality.
5. Change your laws in numerous ways to allow almost all of these new deaths to bypass normal checks and balances and be easily diagnosed as ‘covid-19 related’, either with the inaccurate test or simply by ‘clinical presentation’.
6. In case some attending medics are reluctant to go along with this, change the law to allow a single MD, who may never even have seen the patient in question, to diagnose covid19 at his/her own discretion.
7. Report the startling numbers of ‘new cases’ you find as a result of these various manipulations, as evidence for how essential the new authoritarian measures are for ‘saving lives’.
8. With no sense of irony introduce mandatory Do Not Resuscitate (DNR)s for any demographic you consider useless eaters. (If challenged talk about human suffering, limited healthcare resources and ventilators)
9. Don’t forget to add any ensuing deaths to the covid19 totals.
10. Make sure the media calls anyone who questions any part of this a ‘conspiracy theorist’.

#86 Timmy on 05.20.20 at 3:59 pm

DELETED

#87 Tim123 on 05.20.20 at 4:01 pm

It was inevitable that the real estate could not go up forever. I knew it was beyond the ability of most people to pay for their mortgages without taking on a lot of debt. Everybody that I knew all told me that real estate can never go down. They pointed to supply and a limited amount of land. I knew better and realized that everything can go down, even houses. I guess people felt that way because they never experienced housing prices going down. It is important for people to learn their lesson, even if they declare bankruptcy. Losing money or going bankrupt is not the end of the world, so people can always start again but getting the financial lesson will help them in the future.

#88 Doug t on 05.20.20 at 4:01 pm

Nana nana boo boo – so there

#89 Oakville Sucks on 05.20.20 at 4:04 pm

To all students who received a summer welfare check:

1. How are you planning on spending your free money?
2. Did the Liberals buy your vote in the next election?

#90 O caNnABis! on 05.20.20 at 4:20 pm

dUDEs tHIs is CRAzy AWesoMe!

HAs It beEN 4:20 fOR a wHOle MontH oR wHAT?

LiKe tIme iS sTANding STill, havinG a DOOBie!

LOve iT!

DoN’T WORry abOUT DEBt, CanNABIANs! WhO CarEs, HEe hEE!

It’S 4:20 NOw fOReVeR!

PARty ONNNNnnNNnnNNNnnNnn

#91 Ronaldo on 05.20.20 at 4:21 pm

I told you so.
—————————————————————–
That took you long enough. I think he is being a bit conservative with the 18% drop, especially in To and Van.
This is far worse than the 70s, 80s and 90s where we saw drops of 40%.

#92 Stone on 05.20.20 at 4:29 pm

#35 Not 1st on 05.20.20 at 1:33 pm
Garth what is the sector or industry that will lead us out if this!

If there are none then shouldn’t the Feds be working on s national infrastructure program to spark it? What else is there?

———

The porn industry. It will save us all. Trust me.

#93 Perfect timing on 05.20.20 at 4:30 pm

The best time to crush the inflated housing market is right in the middle of of a global pandemic and economic meltdown. Gasoline on a fire is always smart.

#94 Chris in Edm on 05.20.20 at 4:40 pm

In Edmonton at West Edmonton Mall’s Bourbon Street (where all the sit-down restaurants are for those that aren’t familiar) – Earls hasn’t opened back up, Moxie’s has filed for bankruptcy, and many of the other restaurants can’t open up even though they want to because they can’t convince their employees to come back!!! All the line cooks, dish dogs, hostesses, etc would rather sit at home and collect $2k from Trudope’s CERB rather than work 160hrs a month for a measily extra $400 ($15/hr minimum wage).

..And I don’t blame them. I wouldn’t be willing to work for what is essentially $2.50/hr. It needs fixing ASAP or we’re all going to be bankrupt. I’m still pissed I have to fork over my share of $250 so all the university students can collect Trudope bucks as well.

#95 IHCTD9 on 05.20.20 at 4:45 pm

#80 Sold Out on 05.20.20 at 3:36 pm

The value is in the land.
—-

Depends where. The GTA/GVRD, sure. Everywhere else – not a chance.

Re 100 year mortgages like they have in Japan? You bet they’d have to start building houses better. Poured concrete walls with reinforcing steel are done like dinner at 100 years, and that’s optimistic. Block walls even less, some older one have major issues already before 75 years.

Might have to go back to stone foundations and timber/brick. Many houses on the road I live on have stone/brick/timber construction and in great shape if the walls are kept up with proper lime mortar repointing etc. Quite a few over 150 years old with no problems.

#96 NFN_NLN on 05.20.20 at 4:47 pm

Dolce, you may have missed this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYB0FrPthts

Comments?

#97 Owl Eyes on 05.20.20 at 4:48 pm

Look at this quote:

“While part-time and hourly workers have suffered disproportionate job losses during the COVID-19 crisis, only about 10 per cent of full-time workers have lost their jobs, Laird said.

“Typically it wouldn’t be the part-time, hourly person who is looking at entering the real estate market,” he said. “It’s more typically those with longer-term, stable employment, and that group has not been nearly as badly affected,” he said.”

So 10% of full time workers lose their jobs and that is somehow good news for the perpetually-optimistic Toronto real estate market?!

I’m all for not spreading panic but…

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2020/05/18/is-covid-19-an-unexpected-shot-at-home-ownership-for-first-time-gta-buyers.html?li_source=LI&li_medium=thestar_recommended_for_you

#98 NFN_NLN on 05.20.20 at 4:55 pm

To my knowledge, this blog has never said this before. But here goes, without pleasure.

I told you so.

Garth, when housingpanic hit the US in 2008 and there were a number of foreclosures it actually drove up rental prices.

Do you see (1) rental price increases in the future and (2) residential REITs benefiting from this?

#99 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 4:57 pm

#54 Faron on 05.20.20 at 2:39 pm
#173 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 12:15 pm
#171 Faron on 05.20.20 at 11:54 am

It’s true that one can join the military, but should that really be the only option? As much as you think everyone should be like you, we are luckily that it’s not the case.

In the US it means a real likelihood that you are then sending the poorest off to face death which seems like a poor means of improving a life.

—————

Well, in the last 20 years, a total of around 6,200 US military have died in combat. Considering a military of 1.4M personnel and 30% annual turnover gives somewhere around 10 million servicemembers in that time, let’s just say the ‘real likelihood’ is vanishing small. 0.062%, or 1 in 1,612.

Math, you know.

And, joining the US military is one way for noncitizens to win the golden ticket of citizenship.

#100 Not 1st on 05.20.20 at 5:06 pm

Western Canada has enough wealth to carry every Canadian in style just leave us alone and vote twinkles out next time and the resources will be flying off the coasts.

Oh and banish Liz May to Haida Gwaii.

#101 Dirty Dan on 05.20.20 at 5:10 pm

#92 Stone on 05.20.20 at 4:29 pm

The porn industry. It will save us all. Trust me.

All I ask is that Trudeau uses lube this time. That is all.

#102 NSNG on 05.20.20 at 5:16 pm

UGH!

My taxes finally are done for the year. I really had to force myself to do it this year.

I hate taxes so much.

Every step of the event screams psychologically that it is a complete waste of time.

Then, I get to turn on the TV and watch the clown show they are paying for

What a slap in the face!

#103 NSNG on 05.20.20 at 5:20 pm

That reminds me of a quote:

A person does not realize how much their life is worth until they are standing at the edge of the cliff

#104 NSNG on 05.20.20 at 5:23 pm

Does anyone have a Canadian mortgage renewals chart? One that shows how many are up for renewal every year?

#105 Freedom First on 05.20.20 at 5:26 pm

Yes, Garth, you did tell us, for years. I also take no joy in watching what is happening and will only escalate as time passes.

Freedom First

#106 Sold Out on 05.20.20 at 5:28 pm

#99 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 4:57 pm
#54 Faron on 05.20.20 at 2:39 pm
#173 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 12:15 pm
#171 Faron on 05.20.20 at 11:54 am

It’s true that one can join the military, but should that really be the only option? As much as you think everyone should be like you, we are luckily that it’s not the case.

In the US it means a real likelihood that you are then sending the poorest off to face death which seems like a poor means of improving a life.

—————

Well, in the last 20 years, a total of around 6,200 US military have died in combat. Considering a military of 1.4M personnel and 30% annual turnover gives somewhere around 10 million servicemembers in that time, let’s just say the ‘real likelihood’ is vanishing small. 0.062%, or 1 in 1,612.

Math, you know.

And, joining the US military is one way for noncitizens to win the golden ticket of citizenship.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Combat deaths represent ~27% of active duty deaths. 16,652 total deaths since 2006.

Facts, you know.

https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths

#107 the Jaguar on 05.20.20 at 5:30 pm

@#79 BillyBob on 05.20.20 at 3:33 pm

As you pointed out some time ago an Ex-Pat can own real estate in Canada but if the intent is to rent 25% tax on rental income comes into play and it needs to be ‘arms length’. Guess it depends on whether financing on the property will be sought, how the property will be registered, and especially what the tax treatment would be and ‘for whom’ on disposition of the asset.

On another note: For some time I have been wondering why so many new luxury purpose built rental buildings have been going up in Calgary. For a city on the economic ropes with a current glut of investor units it seemed odd. Lots of vacancy here.
I walked by one today which is almost finished.
https://www.westvillagetowers.com/

There are many others. Wonder if some smarty pants didn’t see the real estate crash coming, knowing many would decide to exit the real estate market for a few years and take up residence in shiny new digs. In Alberta I think you can still go bankrupt and walk with 40,000 equity from your property if you have got it. That could float the boat for a while until things and especially ones credit rating improved. Those trustees are going to be very, very busy. All that unsecured consumer debt ready to be unloaded by people with the same sensibilities that caused them to fraudulently apply for the CERB. Jiminy Crickets.

#108 YouKnowWho on 05.20.20 at 5:40 pm

Garth, I never told you this before, but it’s time.

You’re one heck of a fun dude. And a gentleman.

And having seen you in the wild with your dog once or twice, I can say you’re a sharp dresser. Who the heck dresses that crisp to walk a dog, without intending to tempt the ladies?

Anyhow, that’s enough buttering up.

#109 Macduff on 05.20.20 at 5:49 pm

Garth , I am curious what you think about the real estate market in Ottawa; will it be immune to price drops because of the large number of civil servants, or do you think that massive deficits may put many on the chopping block as government tries to downsize?

#110 akashic record on 05.20.20 at 5:57 pm

As many as 30% of Americans with home loans – about 15 million households –- could stop paying if the U.S. economy remains closed through the summer or beyond, according to an estimate by Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/home-lenders-brace-for-up-to-15-million-u-s-mortgage-defaults-1.1416466

#111 Trojan House on 05.20.20 at 5:59 pm

I just don’t see it happening. I’ve heard twice now, anecdotally, in my area that they can’t keep new homes on the shelves. Two developments sold out online, yes online, within a matter of minutes.

If there is a problem, the people buying these homes haven’t heard about it yet.

#112 Faron on 05.20.20 at 6:03 pm

#98 NFN_NLN on 05.20.20 at 4:55 pm

I’ve been wondering about the potential for rental price increases too. Between the time folks are forced out of their homes and when those homes are repurchased and put on the rental market there will be a big demand shock in rentals.

Very short term rent rate drop due to excess Air BnBs hitting the rental market. Then a gradual rise as demand picks up from foreclosures. A check-mark shaped price trend until houses resell and get reoccupied. Eventually the rental rates will land lower if vacation rentals become fewer and empty spec properties become occupied. Maybe a bouncing ball shape? First bottom in the next few months, second bottom about a year later.

Regardless, demand for apartments owned by residential REITs should be steady. Only question is how much rent prices deflate and ability to recoup rent or evict to get full rent payment.

#113 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.20.20 at 6:09 pm

Might have to go back to stone foundations and timber/brick. Many houses on the road I live on have stone/brick/timber construction and in great shape if the walls are kept up with proper lime mortar repointing etc. Quite a few over 150 years old with no problems.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I’m not sure what the law is in Canada but in the US it’s not permitted to build any home the old fashioned way. The structural support must be wooden frame, stone or brick facades are OK. “Conspiracy theorists” know why.

#114 The West on 05.20.20 at 6:10 pm

This entire ponzi scheme was built to keep the pension generation floating on. Never thinking about the costs to their children/grandchildren down the road. A destination property, yearly vacations of lavish means, rolling around in inheritances their depression grandparents worked hard to save for them….never once thinking about the consequences of “selling high” against future generations. Blame those “indebted millennials” all you want – they never stood a chance.

#115 Genesis II on 05.20.20 at 6:10 pm

I’m sorry, but isn’t this merely

“shutting the barn doors AFTER the horses have already left”?

A few voices, including GF, have warned about this inevitability for years. Hardly anyone listened!
Given the numbers being even worse that the US in 2007-8, I’d say it’s going to be … EPIC!

#116 Westcdn on 05.20.20 at 6:19 pm

I think T2’s foray into MMT (modern monetary theory) will fail badly. It is nice to get helicopter money but little is falling into my backyard. I will have to cheat to get more. The fatal flaw in T2’s scheme is he expects taxes to recover the excess payments. He does not get people will repay less than borrowed if they can, whether it is through inflation, laziness (suing) or bankruptcy. We should be talking productivity if we are going to hold our own – shirkers be dammed.

The original JP Morgan said “I will not give you a nickel if I do not trust your character”. This man was better than Warren Buffet. Sadly, honour doesn’t seem to count. Bill Gates is not my friend. If you get the chance – read the book “Accidental Empires” or “Guns, Germs and Steel”. They are just a food for thought. I get lambasted by experts for this.

#117 Reality is stark on 05.20.20 at 6:20 pm

Since I have been right about everything so far I will make another prediction. Mr. Siddall just dug his own grave.
The public sector is going to milk every last dollar from you. It is imperative that they try to suck every nickel out of the housing sector backstopped by the federal government in order to collect those outrageous wages for as long as possible.
This trick has hoodwinked our stupid people for so long it is mesmerizing. I congratulate Mr. Siddall for stating the obvious but it’s a farce that it has taken 12 years for the light to go on.
Kind of like the mayor of Vancouver saying bad foreigners, bad foreigners, bad foreigners for pricing us out of the housing market. Now he’s crying that his city is broke (which seems to be a worse problem, who knew?) and now they are victims and looking for bail outs.
The 5% down payment won’t change until they get every last drop of blood.
As for cities going broke you ain’t seen nothin yet when it comes to property tax increases.
Do we have officials tough enough to deal with public sector unions? Not on your life.
If I was in charge, imagine Reagan vs. the air traffic controllers and triple the intensity. If they wanted to strike for 5 straight years it would be my pleasure.
They wouldn’t get a dime.

#118 no blog for old men on 05.20.20 at 6:26 pm

@#79 BillyBob on 05.20.20 at 3:33 pm
I will just say what everyone is thinking…

WHERE IS HAPPY HOUSING CRASH GUY?!
//////////////////////////////////////////

he’s busy telling cottagers to STAY THE HELL AWAY.
or reminding us of the leafs incompetence.

#119 twofatcats on 05.20.20 at 6:27 pm

The price of a SFD within 100 miles of the GTA will never, ever, ever go down. The predicted 10% price drop is chump change and does NOT make owning a SFD any more affordable to the average household income. Prices of a SFD in this area survived the global recession of 2008 and they will survive the global pandemic of 2020. If prices of a SFD at Yonge and Eglinton ever dropped to $600K there would be a feeding frenzy that would bid the prices right back up again.

#120 Faron on 05.20.20 at 6:33 pm

#99 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 4:57 pm

#54 Faron on 05.20.20 at 2:39 pm
#173 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 12:15 pm
#171 Faron on 05.20.20 at 11:54 am

Well, in the last 20 years, a total of around 6,200 US military have died in combat. Considering a military of 1.4M personnel and 30% annual turnover gives somewhere around 10 million servicemembers in that time, let’s just say the ‘real likelihood’ is vanishing small. 0.062%, or 1 in 1,612.

Math, you know.

——————————————

Yep, the US military is really good at keeping people alive even without limbs present or operable. Combat morbidity is about 10x higher not including PTSD and then there are training accidents. Nice they give them free healthcare unlike the majority of non military in the US.

Excluding PTSD and using your numbers, that gives you 1 in 162 chance of life changing injury. Including PTSD that’s certainly worse not to mention that occasionally PTSD sufferers bring down additional victims stateside. That’s all on top of day to day hazard of being a working human. Plus, minorities and people from lower income backgrounds are more likely to land in the military because of a lack of other options. Obviously there’s personal choice there, but US highschools, through forced administration of the ASVAB, and heavy presence of recruiters make it damn clear that being vacuumed into the MIC is the only viable choice.

And, it’s all on the backs of the taxpayer and, being generous, maybe 50% of combat deployments have any real geopolitical value.

Neither here nor there, but the number of times I’ve rented a car from one of the big chains from a former military member seems to indicate those skills were useful for…?

#121 Ralph on 05.20.20 at 6:34 pm

“ The beginning of the end for housing and the ‘economy’ based on mindless consumption, no savings and only debt.”

And the Stock Market, as well!

HA HA

#122 The real Kip (Ret) on 05.20.20 at 6:45 pm

Evan Siddall better hope CERB is extended beyond September, he will be on it! This minority government will not make it more difficult for people to buy houses.

#123 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:46 pm

#106 Sold Out on 05.20.20 at 5:28 pm
#99 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 4:57 pm
#54 Faron on 05.20.20 at 2:39 pm
#173 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 12:15 pm
#171 Faron on 05.20.20 at 11:54 am

It’s true that one can join the military, but should that really be the only option? As much as you think everyone should be like you, we are luckily that it’s not the case.

In the US it means a real likelihood that you are then sending the poorest off to face death which seems like a poor means of improving a life.

————-

Well, in the last 20 years, a total of around 6,200 US military have died in combat. Considering a military of 1.4M personnel and 30% annual turnover gives somewhere around 10 million servicemembers in that time, let’s just say the ‘real likelihood’ is vanishing small. 0.062%, or 1 in 1,612.

Math, you know.

And, joining the US military is one way for noncitizens to win the golden ticket of citizenship.

————-

Combat deaths represent ~27% of active duty deaths. 16,652 total deaths since 2006.

Facts, you know.

————-

Yes, I did not report those as any active industry with 10 million workers has accidental deaths. Only the military has combat deaths.

Relevance, you know.

#124 Asterix1 on 05.20.20 at 6:57 pm

He is saying 18% drop in prices. I guess he is talking as a Canadian average.

In GTA and Vancouver, oh boy! I’m predicting a 35-40% cut vs start of 2020 prices.

#125 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:57 pm

#120 Faron on 05.20.20 at 6:33 pm

Denigrate the military if you like. Doing it without personal experience rings hollow. It (the military) is critical to a country and people get hurt in combat. Some appreciate those who serve, others feel criticism is more useful.

It worked out great for me, paid for an engineering undergrad and grad degrees, backstopped my first mortgage and has helped in almost every area of my life since separating. If I ever lose all means of support, VA will pay me $14,000 a year.

#126 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 05.20.20 at 7:00 pm

If we don’t get rid of Trudeau soon we may need an IMF bailout. Canada is the new Greece.

#127 Nonplused on 05.20.20 at 7:03 pm

Yet Teranet just sent out their email today saying prices are up in nearly every Canadian market. They did not comment of sales volume though, which others have responded to as having fallen off a cliff.

I think it has something to do with the way they calculate their index, which looks at individual houses. And also I think we saw this in 2008 as well that when the market vapor-locks only the best houses sell, which artificially masks what is going on with the average price.

Anyway, today’s post nicely sums up an utter disaster in the coming. You have been arguing for years that the housing market was built of a bed of sand, but I never thought it would get washed away so quickly as it appears it may. 20% of people deferring for 6 months? If we assume just half of those people end up in foreclosure the main problem will be that there aren’t enough companies specializing in “trashing out” foreclosures to handle all the evictions. Especially since that is about the time they will be getting around to the “KeepYourRent” crowd. It seems squatting is going to become the new norm in Canada for some time. Nobody works, nobody pays rent, and everybody is high. Nice.

The Canadian dollar may collapse. It is not a reserve currency so our central bank cannot expect strong support from other central banks in the same way the US Fed can. If the BOC tries to monetize all the new Trudeau bucks we are toast.

—————————–

In other news from the “government solutions are always worse than the problem they are designed to solve” department:

Some restaurants in the US that have tried to reopen are finding it difficult to hire staff. That is because the total relief package is up to $840 a week or $22/hour equivalent, so naturally nobody wants to go back to work for minimum wage. This problem is likely to be persistent, because as I have argued here before many people will be reluctant to give up the free money now that they have tasted it. Expect riotous protests in July when Trump tries to cut it off. Cities burning type of thing. Police cars overturned. Looting.

Also the incentive to work is now permanently damaged. By effectively instituting a UBI experiment at $22/hr, the labor market has been effectively sabotaged. Prices are sticky, so getting people back to work for less than $22/hr may prove impossible. This at a time when GDP is in the toilet and inflation is nowhere to be found (except in the price of gaming consoles).

A worrying trend is already occurring in the transportation area. Car traffic is rising much faster than transit traffic as commuters choose to avoid buses and trains. In a place like Nebraska or Texas this probably means nothing, nobody took the bus before, but for a place like New York or even Toronto this could spell absolute gridlock. Nobody is going to be able to get anywhere.

On the lighter side, Joe Binden’s staff writers finally came up with a good zinger; “President Tweety”. I have to admit it’s pretty good. Surprised it took so long though. If we actually get debates it’ll be “Sleepy Joe” against “Tweety Trump”. Trump still wins though because in today’s day and age seems everybody Tweets and Tweety Bird is a beloved character for those who remember him. Expect to see T-Shirts available soon from Mark Dice.

Nancy Pelosi just can’t stop losing. Recently she said Trump shouldn’t take Hydroxychloroquine because he is “morbidly obese”. So she has just created two problems for herself the second greater than the first. The first is that if Trump is morbidly obese (he’s certainly not skinny), then he is at an elevated risk of complications from covid so he should be taking it. And then Biden went on to say that taking Hydroxychloroquine is the same as injecting Clorox, even though it has been in use for other ailments for 50+ years. Second for Pelosi though, have you been to the US? She just called a lot of voters unacceptably fat. She just guaranteed Trump Texas and Florida. This was as bad a move as Hilary’s “basket of deplorableds”. Nice move Nancy. Now Trump voters are “morbidly obese deplorables”. Do they even need to have an election at this point?

And now there is flooding and dams breaking in Michigan. Murder Hornets in Victoria. Snow in California in May. Can we just skip forward to 2021? 2020 sucks.

#128 Kilt on 05.20.20 at 7:04 pm

I’m wondering. How much money would the government save if they went to a Univeral Income Supplement (UIS). A top up to $2000 a month for everyone. Then proceeded to get rid of EI, OAS, GIS and TFSA (because if we have UIS, then the TFSA becomes more a product of the wealthy). And at the same time, transitioned to a cashless economy – making all cash transactions track-able.

Kilt

#129 Jason on 05.20.20 at 7:04 pm

Doesn’t changing the downpayment from 5% to 10% just accelerate the decline in home values? With all the listings apparently coming, making it harder for someone to buy seems to be counterproductive.

#130 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.20.20 at 7:11 pm

#164 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.20 at 9:31 am last post sez:

“Glad I’m not living in Michigan right now…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/michigan-dam-flood-1.5576545
—————————————————–
Even in the middle of a real absolute disaster Whitmer can’t stop herself from virtue signalling.

Hey people, the flood wave is coming for you, only one person allowed per rescue boat! Social distance!

The world has gone insane.

#131 Winterpeg on 05.20.20 at 7:11 pm

So the carnage will affect RE in all markets?, Not just the “big 3” that are generally discussed here? (Van, T.O, and Calg?)

#132 Treasure Island CEO on 05.20.20 at 7:14 pm

Evan Siddal isn’t Trudeau.

The gov. will pull a magical move to put a floor in on falling prices – house prices might fall but the gov won’t let the bottom fall out when it is pretty much the entire Canadian economy.

40 year amorts.

Remove stress test.

100 year amorts.

Debt jubilees.

Universal basic income.

The feds have options and will use them.

There might be a dip in house prices but it will not be the end of the world. Maybe a buying opportunity but to the older crowd who have once again kept their jobs and have some money to play with. Younger generation squeezed once again with no hope to buy anything on bargain. Therefore, putting off starting a family and raising the need to bring in more immigrants.

The disaster here is younger people never being able to afford a nice home with a yard where they can raise a family the right way with room. That is what is happening here. Sorry late to the table millennials and gen Zers without inheritances. Social housing condos that way.

#133 Yukon Elvis on 05.20.20 at 7:15 pm

#84 JB on 05.20.20 at 3:51 pm
#58 Do we have all the facts on 05.20.20 at 2:42 pm

One touchy subject that our governments seem to be avoiding is the impact of Covid 19 on immigration. It was anticipated that Canada would welcome 340,000 new citizens in 2020 and it is difficult to see how this target will be reached.
Whether the Government of Canada wants to admit it or not it has been the arrival of over 6,000,000 new citizens since 1990 that has increased the demand for housing and led to the escalation of house prices and the generation of trillions of dollars in wealth for Canadians citizens.
Without immigration the demand for housing would barely support the construction of 100,000 new units per year, including replacements. Once supply became equal to, or greater than, demand the average price or average rent would fall.
Quite simply real estate activity supported by immigration became a crucial component of the Canadian economy. Once the wagon was hitched the Government of Canada had no choice but to introduce policies and legislation designed to stimulate housing demand and support the accumulation of additional debt.
……………………………………

This has been Canada’s business model for decades. Governments at all levels will find a way to continue with this model. Nothing is gonna change that.

#134 Nonplused on 05.20.20 at 7:16 pm

#41 Grunt on 05.20.20 at 1:52 pm
Wonder if RV motorhome sales will spike from fear of hotels, flying, taking the train etc?

——————

In the US they already have. I think it is mostly the virus, but it is also still fresh in people’s minds that those folks who foolishly bought and RV with a HELOC per 2008 didn’t have to sleep in a tent when they lost their house. Keep a clean title to it if that’s your plan.

#135 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.20.20 at 7:18 pm

#20 Overheardyou on 05.20.20 at 12:31 pm sez:

“Asking for a friend, how do you remove someone out of your investment property, if they illegally broke in and squatted there for a month before you realized it?”
———————————————–
Bring lawyers, guns, and money…

#136 Nonplused on 05.20.20 at 7:20 pm

#58 Do we have all the facts on 05.20.20 at 2:42 pm
One touchy subject that our governments seem to be avoiding is the impact of Covid 19 on immigration. It was anticipated that Canada would welcome 340,000 new citizens in 2020 and it is difficult to see how this target will be reached.

——————————–

Why on earth would we want to achieve such targets when the people who are already here are out of work?

#137 AGuyInVancouver on 05.20.20 at 7:32 pm

With the better part of a million people unable to pay their mortgages I think the question has been answered. – Garth
_ _ _
Not necessarily. The people I know who requested a mortgage deferral did it in the early days of the pandemic, just to make sure they were able to defer, should they lose their job. They haven’t.

They erred. – Garth

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.20 at 7:43 pm

@#120 faron.
“PTSD….blah,blah,blah.
Michael Moore anti military documentary….. blah blah, blah.
Capitalism bad, blah blah, blah. ”

+++++
My god, When’s the class action suit start for all the unfairness in the world?

#139 Ejy on 05.20.20 at 8:02 pm

I need to wear a mask while reading these comments to protect me from the vitriol spewed all over.

#140 Wrk.dover on 05.20.20 at 8:02 pm

Having a higher interest rate with a stronger currency since 2009 would have lead us to a worse place than this right or wrong?

I know the only reason we have had low interest rates is because I am trying to live on interest like retired generation before me and Poloz doesn’t like me trying.

I’m sorry his vendetta on me has impacted this nation so adversely.

#141 TLDR on 05.20.20 at 8:14 pm

too much of it

[] Canada’s debt crisis gets real as CMHC head honcho Siddall calls for changes to min. down payment rules to curb housing demand

[] Multiple debt chickens coming home to roost simultaneously – deferred mortgages, household debt, debt to income all sky high and a mortgage deferral cliff looming on the road ahead

[] up next – looking for work in a significantly downsized economy with a significantly upsized (double digit) unemployment rate, falling Real Estate(RE) values, and rising mortgage defaults/foreclosures

[] You can’t say that you weren’t warned, almost daily, for 12 years.

#142 akashic record on 05.20.20 at 8:19 pm

#135 AGuyInVancouver on 05.20.20 at 7:32 pm

With the better part of a million people unable to pay their mortgages I think the question has been answered. – Garth
_ _ _
Not necessarily. The people I know who requested a mortgage deferral did it in the early days of the pandemic, just to make sure they were able to defer, should they lose their job. They haven’t.

They erred. – Garth

The whole world erred, including governments.

Plus by deferring the mortgage bank customers just accepted an offer from the bank, at a price that the bank set. Legally probably not even the same as if they erred, unilaterally.

#143 Moh on 05.20.20 at 8:19 pm

Houses might go down a little but up it will go rest assured our government will intervene and prevent a disaster like that from happening. Mortgage deferrals will be 1 year to protect home owners. Don’t get all hopped up thinking any of the prices will change.

#144 Faron on 05.20.20 at 8:27 pm

#125 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:57 pm

#120 Faron on 05.20.20 at 6:33 pm

Denigrate the military if you like

—–

Criticizing with facts and denigrating are two different things. That’s your overly defensive assumption. I strongly question any claims that the military should be the primary rung on any upward mobility ladder. Seeing recruiting centers aside payday lenders in minority neighborhoods is a pretty good hint at their target audience.

#145 COVID Barber on 05.20.20 at 8:28 pm

Garth, I’ve been an independant barber/stylist for twenty years in the gta . I have no respect for fascist governments telling me to shut down my services during this flu season and so I’ve continued to offer my valuables services to my valued clients and their freinds.

So I have been quietly (and very safely!) meeting clients desperate for hairstyling services over the last eight weeks in their homes. Typically, for services that would normally cost about $60 I am now getting $300-450 each visit. My COVID ‘bump’ will be about $200,000 by June thanks to these extra cash payments. It’s been the best year of business I’ve ever had, and I don’t want to waste it.

With this much to invest, would I have enough to be a client for your services? Is there a minimum amount needed to invest in a balanced and diversified portfolio?

Depends. Can you coif Bandit and me? – Garth

#146 joblo on 05.20.20 at 8:33 pm

Peter Zeihan webinar Corona virus, What comes next? very interesting perspectives.

He accessed countries entering new economic potential his best line “Canada doesn’t do anything very well”.

Hey hold on, are we not #1 in household debt?

Oh and if the Liebs stay cozy with China, look out.

#147 Thomas Malley on 05.20.20 at 8:34 pm

I miss Mr. Smoking Man comments on the current state of affairs.

#148 P.Ooched on 05.20.20 at 8:34 pm

Nothing to uplift your pandemic spirits here today other than no mention of the bug. Lets hope that an upsized second wave doesn’t arrive at the same time we are rolling over the mortgage deferral cliff. Apologies for mentioning the bug.

#149 MPAC on 05.20.20 at 8:52 pm

The 20% deferral figure doesn’t truly reflect what is happening. I know hundreds of investors, in the GTA, who have chosen to defer mortgages on their investment properties even though they’ve received 100% rents. Right or wrong, they’re using the deferral as a form of insurance.

That being said, I do expect Real estate prices to drop and see a rise in non-payment of rents. No different than my equities tanking.

In time, RE and stock the stock market will rise again.

Oh, and Trudeau will NEVER increase the down payment requirement to 10%. We all know that.

#150 jess on 05.20.20 at 8:53 pm

William K. Black developed the concept of “Control Fraud” and focuses in … research on the factors of “criminogenic environments” that produce epidemics … when certain patterns of behaviour, which are relatively standard in …

subprime auto loans

The bipartisan coalition of 34 attorneys general also alleges that Santander’s “aggressive pursuit of market share led it to underestimate the risk associated with loans by turning a blind eye to dealer abuse and failing to meaningfully monitor dealer behavior to minimize the risk of receiving falsified information, including the amounts specified for consumers’ incomes and expenses.”

ATTORNEY GENERAL HERRING ANNOUNCES OVER $550 MILLION SETTLEMENT WITH NATION’S LARGEST SUBPRIME AUTO FINANCING COMPANY

~ Bipartisan, multistate settlement with Santander includes more than $550 million in relief for consumers; Virginia consumers will receive at least $9 million in relief ~

RICHMOND (May 20, 2020) – Attorney General Mark R. Herring today joined a bipartisan coalition of 34 attorneys general in announcing a settlement with Santander Consumer USA Inc. (Santander) that includes at least $550 million in relief for consumers, including at least $9 million for Virginia, with even more relief expected. The settlement resolves allegations that Santander violated consumer protection laws by exposing subprime consumers to unnecessarily high levels of risk and knowingly placing these consumers into auto loans with a high probability of default. Under the settlement, Santander is required to provide relief to consumers and, moving forward, is required to factor a consumer’s ability to pay the loan into its underwriting. Today’s settlement stems from a multistate investigation of Santander’s subprime lending practices.

https://www.oag.state.va.us/media-center/news-releases/1723-may-20-2020-herring-announces-over-550-million-settlement-with-nation-s-largest-subprime-auto-financing-company

“Satander acted in incredibly deceptive ways by specifically targeting vulnerable Virginians who were more likely to default on their car loans, subjecting them to unnecessarily high-risk loans, and misleading them about their rights as consumers,” said Attorney General Herring. “This settlement sends an important message to similar lenders that they must take a consumer’s circumstances and ability to pay into account when issuing loans. I’m glad we were able to hold Santander accountable for hurting thousands

#151 not 1st on 05.20.20 at 8:57 pm

Better get your RVs quick before Trudeau slaps a luxury tax on them.

#152 Drinking on 05.20.20 at 9:00 pm

Is it just me or do other dawgs know that everything else will crash as well; one can only print so much at the worst possible time. Certain few certainly did well and like the 2008/2009 crash; who is going to be asked to bail out these fools? Cash is king!

#153 yvr_lurker on 05.20.20 at 9:01 pm

I think that the “I told you so” comment is a little harsh. Indeed it is unfortunate that many were exposed to have woefully inadequate savings to offer much resiliance for being unable to work for months on end. I think it is unfair to implicitly blame families for being unprepared with adequate resources to withstand a pandemic where both wage earners are out of work. We have friends who both work in the airline business (a pilot and admin person at aircanada). Both are furloughed for who knows how long.

Where is the blame to China for ignoring all the warnings since the time of SARS of coronaviruses lurking in live animal markets? Where is the blame to their minimizing what was going on in December and January in Wuhan to the WHO? (Taiwan didn’t believe a word of what they were saying and put in social distancing from China… smart move). Somehow on your blog China gets the immunity card in all of this.

#154 Doug in London on 05.20.20 at 9:05 pm

Changes loom, including the doubling of required down payments for houses.
————————————————————
Why weren’t these changes made 10 years ago?

#155 Paul on 05.20.20 at 9:12 pm

#111 Trojan House on 05.20.20 at 5:59 pm
I just don’t see it happening. I’ve heard twice now, anecdotally, in my area that they can’t keep new homes on the shelves. Two developments sold out online, yes online, within a matter of minutes.

If there is a problem, the people buying these homes haven’t heard about it yet.
————————————————————————————————
Sold out in minutes?
They may be in for shock when they go to the bank for a mortgage

#156 HellYeah on 05.20.20 at 9:27 pm

Drunk and trying to read the comments without losing my mind because of the non-critical thinking skills of some posters.
Which made me wonder: what ever happened to Smoking Man and his *ahem* insightful *ahem* commentary?

#157 MF on 05.20.20 at 9:31 pm

17 Reality is stark on 05.20.20 at

Today’s post was too heavy on public sector unions and too light on socialism and family court.

It should be 33% equal parts.

MF

#158 MF on 05.20.20 at 9:32 pm

Great post today Garth.

A well deserved “I told you so”.

MF

#159 John in Mtl on 05.20.20 at 9:34 pm

@ #54 Faron on 05.20.20 at 2:39 pm

… “I’ve long been a quiet proponent of mandatory national service either military or civil. You get paid a livable wage, some needed work gets done and you’ve earned your place in the country.”

Three cheers for that; Instill duty, service, responsibility.

#160 Jane Hood on 05.20.20 at 9:35 pm

DELETED

#161 Trojan House on 05.20.20 at 9:35 pm

#155 Paul on 05.20.20 at 9:12 pm

Yes, for one of them, I was behind a lady in line at the Home Hardware. Turns out she was a sales rep for one of the builders. She had just come from the office where they did the sales online. She said the subdivision sold out in a matter of minutes. Don’t know if they were singles, towns, condos or a combination.

The other anecdote was from a friend who was looking and said one of the subdivisions he was looking at just sold out.

#162 TurnerNation on 05.20.20 at 9:43 pm

By early December most people will have stopped posting on social media their masks, about #quarantine.
Having spent what 250 days mainly solitarily confined away their friends, family, cultural events, spots, jobs – many with little to no income – now their only hope will be belief in a ‘Deadly 3rd Wave’ to hit in January.
I mean it has to, right??

(People are just going along with the Medical Theatre. Saw a fellow wearing nitrate gloves and smoking a cigarette. Worried about your lungs are ya buddy?)

We will become Safe again when our health officials on TV tell us so. They care not about our individual situation; health or wellness tips will not be provided. No apparent scientific process is being followed. No, all that matters is the daily numbers. Higher number will draw tsktsk’s and scoldings from our health officials. Some people must be ruining it for all of us! Selfish sorts. If they would just comply then this will soon be over. (The same thing told to detainees.)
That will spur on the social media isolatee participants into a flurry of #stayhome tags for the Holiday Season. Timing is everything.

My biggest fear is MF mutating :(

#163 MF on 05.20.20 at 9:47 pm

My man Faron with some big homeruns here. Continuing to rack up the points on the scoreboard.

Some great discussion.

MF

#164 Waldguy on 05.20.20 at 9:54 pm

With the better part of a million people unable to pay their mortgages I think the question has been answered. – Garth
_ _ _
Not necessarily. The people I know who requested a mortgage deferral did it in the early days of the pandemic, just to make sure they were able to defer, should they lose their job. They haven’t.

They erred. – Garth
_ _ _

That was our experience (a small financial institution in SK). April. A bunch of requests for info. May. Almost no deferrals. Now, new mortgage applications. Many contractors have never been busier throughout. Some had a pause and now have a big backlog. Maybe a hiccup before a plunge. Maybe a tale of three of four markets. Maybe a V. Maybe a W. 1920s came after 1918. Prophets know.

#165 Looking up on 05.20.20 at 10:00 pm

pm
#155 Paul on 05.20.20 at 9:12 pm

Yes, for one of them, I was behind a lady in line at the Home Hardware. Turns out she was a sales rep for one of the builders. She had just come from the office where they did the sales online. She said the subdivision sold out in a matter of minutes. Don’t know if they were singles, towns, condos or a combination.

The other anecdote was from a friend who was looking and said one of the subdivisions he was looking at just sold out.

————————-

You keep posting that every week. As soon as a sentence
Starts off “I was standing behind a lady at home hardware and I heard her say” the credibility of the story immediately goes to zero.

#166 Sue on 05.20.20 at 10:06 pm

Yet the markets still rise. Nothing makes sense to me anymore. Remember there was a time when very few invested in stock because of the risk. There was also a generation that didnt trust the banks. A friends son was offered a loan for a car for 19.5%. Went to a credit union got one for2.5. Somethings up

#167 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.20.20 at 10:09 pm

“Asking for a friend, how do you remove someone out of your investment property, if they illegally broke in and squatted there for a month before you realized it?”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Release a few tarantulas inside.

#168 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.20.20 at 10:12 pm

#55 Marco on 05.20.20 at 2:39 pm
#50 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 2:24 pm
…………………………………………………………
Well, at speed you are buying real estate in Canada, I think The Queen , soon going to be minority owner….
———————
Sailo is a plantation owner.
He has already more slaves than Her Majesty.

#169 Stoner on 05.20.20 at 10:14 pm

To the folks that claim that the government will stop the house prices from going down, you are right. But also be ready for 1 USD = 4 CAD. You can’t have it both ways unless you are USA and your currency is the world reserve currency.

#170 reed marx on 05.20.20 at 10:24 pm

%18 drop is not even close to where this housing bust is going to tumble to. The largest housing & credit bubble in HISTORY is going to correct to the “mean average” which is far more than 18%. Add the double digit inflation thanks to unprecedented money printing and you have a recipe for a currency crises. The U.S won’t save us and will even fare worse. Their devaluation will turn both Wall/Bay and main Street upside down.

#171 sailedaway on 05.20.20 at 10:24 pm

#15 Hairhead on 05.20.20 at 12:03 pm

Immigration, what do you propose, please clarify.

Really curious as recently someone told me to go “back to where I came from”..

If I start hearing & reading that a bit too much I might do just that.

What do you suggest, seriously, with an aging population and with a working population with one of the lowest productivity in the western world?

#172 sailedaway on 05.20.20 at 10:26 pm

#21 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 12:32 pm

So happy to be subsidizing your lifestyle…

#173 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.20.20 at 10:27 pm

#95 IHCTD9 on 05.20.20 at 4:45 pm
#80 Sold Out on 05.20.20 at 3:36 pm

The value is in the land.
—-

Depends where. The GTA/GVRD, sure. Everywhere else – not a chance.

Re 100 year mortgages like they have in Japan? You bet they’d have to start building houses better. Poured concrete walls with reinforcing steel are done like dinner at 100 years, and that’s optimistic. Block walls even less, some older one have major issues already before 75 years.

Might have to go back to stone foundations and timber/brick. Many houses on the road I live on have stone/brick/timber construction and in great shape if the walls are kept up with proper lime mortar repointing etc. Quite a few over 150 years old with no problems.
—————-
Most new buyers don’t care about foundations and quality workmanship.
Give them granite counter tops and they are all in.
Sad but true.

#174 Faron on 05.20.20 at 10:29 pm

#123 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:46 pm

Google morbidity ya goof. But thanks for upping the mortality number, that just makes it look more risky and like a worse option to force kids into when they had the bad luck of being born in a shit environment. If you think it is just for a bunch of rich a-holes in government to command people into wars that are intended to enrich themselves, then your sense of justice is pretty effed.

Been a pleasure. I’m done arguing with you and wasting both of our time. Everyone’s entrenched, it’s pointless.

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.20 at 7:43 pm

——————————————

@#120 faron.
“PTSD….blah,blah,blah.
Michael Moore anti military documentary….. blah blah, blah.
Capitalism bad, blah blah, blah. ”

PTSD is a thing and the US and Canadian militaries spend a lot to treat it. It has nothing to do with fairness. You are welcome to leave the stone age where people don’t have feelings at any time. I’d say “grow up” but clearly you are a fossil.

Said nothing about Michael Moore. Nor did I say Capitalism is bad. Never have. Pull your head out of your fart cloud and stop putting words in my mouth.

#130 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.20.20 at 7:11 pm

Even in the middle of a real absolute disaster Whitmer can’t stop herself from virtue signalling.

————

What the hell are you talking about? The only quote from her in the piece is her making a boilerplate request for federal aid. The real jerk is the orange fellow who made an a-political natural disaster into some kind of crappy put down. Way to bring people together.

Yeah, keep pulling out your pet phrase “virtue signalling”. Sounds like you have a mind control problem.

It’s way past beer time.

#175 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.20.20 at 10:38 pm

#125 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:57 pm
#120 Faron on 05.20.20 at 6:33 pm

Denigrate the military if you like. Doing it without personal experience rings hollow. It (the military) is critical to a country and people get hurt in combat. Some appreciate those who serve, others feel criticism is more useful.

It worked out great for me, paid for an engineering undergrad and grad degrees, backstopped my first mortgage and has helped in almost every area of my life since separating. If I ever lose all means of support, VA will pay me $14,000 a year.
—————
Seems like you lived on the Government’s dime all your life

#176 Karlhungus on 05.20.20 at 10:38 pm

Its all local. Cant have a blanket statement for the whole country. Edmonton prices havent moved in 10 years all the while people continue to move here and wages continue to go up. Cant really see a big drop in Edmonton

#177 Kool Aid on 05.20.20 at 10:47 pm

Canadians can sure spend it.

The insolvency spike will be interesting, BOC on a bond buying spree at 5B every week.

Rates will be very supportive, so get ready for prices that are down some (15%), then panic rate cuts…Wayne Gretzky rates soon (0.99%).

#178 Montana Bob on 05.20.20 at 10:48 pm

Well, we will see.
As far as I have heard, mortgage deferrals are up to a year. Not only 6 months. Banks don’t want loads of houses in their possession.
Another thing: People still have credit cards, line of credit, money from unemployment insurance, RRSP. So, I don’t believe house bubble will suddenly explode. People will try to hang to their property as long as possible. Having some credit cards and line of credit will give them some buffer. Many people have decreased income, but not down to zero. Also, they will cut all possible expenses. So, it will take some time for people to empty all of their resources. But, that day will come, for some.
What I expect is slow deflating of prices of houses, may be 7 years in row.
But, as message when you install Windows says, “sit back and relax”.

Cheers

#179 Reality is stark on 05.20.20 at 10:55 pm

Good for you MF for identifying common themes. Where they separate the men from the boys is when you act on the obvious connotation of the information given over the years. Had you been shorting the Cdn dollar since I started writing on this blog you could have purchased your wife a house or two with a bunch left over for Garth to manage.
As it stands now you may not find family court as fair as Trudeau claims it to be.

#180 robert james on 05.20.20 at 10:56 pm

Moody`s say a 30 percent drop in Canadian home prices.. Ouch!!! https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-could-drop-up-to-30-moodys-advises-institutions/

#181 DON on 05.20.20 at 11:02 pm

“I told you so”…Yes you most definitely did! Enjoy.

For those that think the Gov will save the housing market…just look to our southern neighbours in 2009 – they have a money printing press.

In Canada, debt was at extreme levels last November prior to any pandemic. Jobs were peaking and some companies were already laying off. It was only 3 months ago…less we forget!

Without the pandemic we were still on course for a slow motion crash into the debt and price ceiling brick walls.
Yes the pandemic pushed everything over the edge and has sent apprehension into the minds of a good portion of the population.

It’s all about consequences for the next while. Everyone’s mileage will vary.

CERB just got extended. Evan S telling it as it is on his way out the door? How much did prices fall in April? Why did gas increase by 20 cents in the last two weeks? Traffic only started to return in the last day, but the work from home crowd is still at home, but stores are open so people are out enjoying the weather. I hear China has a new lock down going on, was in the news today.

@NonPlused – Good breakdowns yesterday and today!

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.20 at 11:12 pm

@#144 faron
” I strongly question any claims that the military should be the primary rung on any upward mobility ladder. Seeing recruiting centers aside payday lenders in minority neighborhoods is a pretty good hint at their target audience.”

++++

Michael Moore regurgitated.

Recruiting agencies also locate near colleges an universities for ROTC officer material.
They also train people with minimal job skills in marketable skills such as electronics, mechanics, carpentry, logistics, on and on and on.
Marketable skills that they may never acquire living in a lower income environment with zero credit or money to get a post secondary education.

I like Michael Moore. Funny, articulate and he has a necessary , opposing view of life and govt.
But…..I take him with a grain of salt because …everyone has an agenda.
Mine is farting in elevators and making people stop their inane conversations ….usually about the weather……

Whats yours?

#183 Bella Horrida on 05.20.20 at 11:20 pm

Here’s an idea: make it possible to put a decent amount in your pension. Treble the TFSA limit. Then people might not be so house obsessed. In the UK, the TFSA equivalent is worth around $18000. Pension limit? Around $85000. The RRSP limit of $23000 or whatever is a national disgrace.

#184 happygolucky on 05.20.20 at 11:30 pm

#9 Buy? Curious? on 05.20.20

Garth! How are you? I haven’t read or commented on your gloriously invigorating blog that have been injected with new life for a while but what a time to be living in! Let me say this right off the top, I knew something like this would happen! Not a pandemic but I knew from a young age that school was a waste of time, career was illusionary and debt was a state of mind! Heck, I never even paid my late fees at Blockbuster let alone my student loans! Why? I knew at some point, it won’t matter! If I can offer your readers some advice, it would be to let it go. Let it all go! Don’t pay anything to anyone! Let‘s start a revolution without interrupting watching Tiger King!
Good luck everyone!
——————————————————–

Wow!
And I just said revolution might be beyond scope of this blog, wrong again.
What a contrarian insights here…

#185 TurnerNation on 05.20.20 at 11:41 pm

The Crown’s bankers taking back Crown Land via the Crown virus.

#186 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 12:06 am

#144 Faron on 05.20.20 at 8:27 pm
#125 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:57 pm

#120 Faron on 05.20.20 at 6:33 pm

Denigrate the military if you like

—————–

I strongly question any claims that the military should be the primary rung on any upward mobility ladder.

—————–

Well, let’s see: my army buddy Robert Pickle leads the ISS refueling pod program at NASA, my battalion commander is now a Senator, Chris Hadfield was the second Canadian to the ISS, and the first to command it.

Hmmm… facts point to military service being quite a good rung. Perhaps one of the best.

#187 Blacksheep on 05.21.20 at 12:58 am

Treasure # 132,

“Evan Siddal isn’t Trudeau.

The gov. will pull a magical move to put a floor in on falling prices – house prices might fall but the gov won’t let the bottom fall out when it is pretty much the entire Canadian economy.

40 year amorts.

Remove stress test.

100 year amorts.

Debt jubilees.

Universal basic income.

The feds have options and will use them.

There might be a dip in house prices but it will not be the end of the world.”
———————————–
What he/she said.

Siddal is playing chicken little (the lead story on global Van tonight) sounding the alarm to the populace, in case a R.E. bailout is required.

This is an old playbook (C. Powell, 2003) scare the crap out of them and they’ll let do almost anything, as long as the people believe it will keep them safe. Remember, this dude is ex Goldman Sachs.

Today’s blog will be documented for future reference.

#188 fishman on 05.21.20 at 12:58 am

Coved Barber: May I suggest a trade. Styling expertise & coiffing for management of your budding portfolio. I may have had a small influence by making a forceful argument here against letting any wife cut their husband’s hair.
Now, a style suggestion & release of my inner hairdresser.. How about a mullet (Tiger King style) with more of a comb over (Trumpster style) than a crew cut on top. The Don Cherry goatee trimmed nicely. The coup de grace: Everything died a grey/blonde matching Bandit . Our Fearless Leader will make Vogue.

#189 Jimers on 05.21.20 at 1:10 am

Government only has a duty to keep us safe, they have a more important responsibility to protect our Rights.

#190 happygolucky on 05.21.20 at 1:16 am

#34 NewWest on 05.20.20

So what is going to happen to all the new construction in the lower mainland? Houses, condos, towers going up so fast now it seems like the developers are in a race against time.
I drove down 10th the other day, and a lot that had a tiny old house on it in February now has a completed mega mansion on it. My sister lives in Maple Ridge, and is shocked at the pace of construction. Townhouses going up in three months, shovel in the ground to for sale sign in front. Thousands of them down the valley. There are seven cranes near the intersection at Lougheed and North Road, how many towers going up there? Who is going to buy these things? I can’t believe that all the presales are going to complete. Downtown New Westminster, same thing – four towers going up downtown right now within a six block radius of Columbia and Begbie, two of them actually in the Fraser River, I kid you not. The Royal Towers is scheduled to come down to be replaced by condo buildings as well, two forty storey towers and two townhouse buildings.
At the same time the “for rent” signs are starting to appear on storefronts in downtown New Westminster. The Army and Navy closed. Retail taking a huge hit in the local area.
There is such a disconnect out here. I was buying tomato plants on the weekend and overheard a young guy, maybe in his late 20s, telling an older couple that his investment condo had been an excellent investment. “I put every penny I had into it,” he said, “all my savings. And the value has just gone up! I’ve probably made $50,000.” From what I gather he bought a year or so ago, and I don’t think that there is anyone in it. Wow. Just wow.
It sure doesn’t seem like the unemployment rate is 15% out here, or that anyone has to defer payments on mortgages or credit cards or car payments. What am I missing? Or is this just the first stage of the tsunami, the water drawing back from the shore, the deceptive calm?
————————————————————–

Good post,
I am no so much shocked with new construction pace, I am rather amazed. Vancouver urban landscape is changing so rapidly, it’s hard to keep up with.
And what baffles me even more that each company from day one have enough personnel to successfully and on time complete the project. In construction business “time” really means “money” Personnel, I mean skilled labour, tradesman, engineers, project managers, amazing, isn’t it?
Who is going to buy these things? Good question, and race against time…
Projects have to be finished, and they will be, and there are many in Lower Mainland.
And whether they will turn into “ghost towns” at night with few occupants or none at all, soon to be discovered.
Unemployment 15%, very possible, mind you construction during this pandemic was “essential” service both in Canada and USA. Only for a short period of time Quebec and Ontario put construction on hold, and same south the border. So it was good for “optics”
But many in service, retail and tourism were out of work “lockdown” and “stayed home” and many still do.
And, if restaurants, bars, clubs, patios, and malls would open in full swing tomorrow they would be full again, last week I saw over 10 boats launching in small marina on Fraser near YVR, no signs of recession or depression yet.
Time will tell…as always

#191 Junkieman on 05.21.20 at 1:20 am

#147 Thomas Malley, agreed only time we need him and he’s gone.

#192 Diharv on 05.21.20 at 1:33 am

After several years of trying to slowly cool the real estate market the idiots in Ottawa once again tried to reverse it in the 2019 budget, making it so people who have no business buying can get into the market. Now look where the country is. They just don’t get it, they never will. I will not be surprised to see Trudope announce the biggest whopper of all- a bailout of the Canadian real estate market, because that is basically what the Canadian economy is isn’t it? A real estate Ponzi scheme propped up by cheap money and soon to be govt bailouts.

#193 Keeper on 05.21.20 at 1:35 am

Sorry but people had a choice. They chose to blow their brains out by spending WAY more than they earned. They fell for the “housing is the greatest investment in the world” meme along with “real estate always goes up” nonsense.

This force majeure event merely brought on the reckoning that was in store for people who were over-leveraged.

#194 happygolucky on 05.21.20 at 1:43 am

#41 Grunt on 05.20.20

Wonder if RV motorhome sales will spike from fear of hotels, flying, taking the train etc?
—————————————————————

No, they won’t.
But old RV or even school buses are “new trend and lifestyle” in Van BC out of “fear of landlords”

#195 WUL on 05.21.20 at 1:43 am

Hi Garth,

Please excuse my interjection in the comment section here. Dawgs often remark about the seductive prices for homes in Texas compared to Estevan and Medicine Hat. I get that. Like the comment of ADH, supra.

But, were I a partner with a young woman, still in my long vanished age of fecundity and interested in producing offspring, I’d look closely at the deficiencies in the provision of maternal health care for ordinary folks in that locale. If memory serves, Tejas ranks on the level of the likes of Namibia / Kazakhstan or thereabouts. I welcome correction.

Have at it young folks. You’ll have stainless steel, granite and Miele appliances.

WUL

M64LackingFecundityInFt.Mac

#196 VicPaul on 05.21.20 at 1:44 am

#33 Howard

The Liberals would prefer the government simply start paying people’s mortgages for them until unemployment drops and hope increased immigration and a hands-off (i.e. encouraging) approach to money-laundering will keep housing buoyant until they are inevitably turfed from office, leaving it to the Conservatives to clean up the mess.

*********

Sounds like BC of the last 20 years…you know, the inflated house-price/money-laundering part. The old becomes new again…same as it ever was.

M56BC

#197 Nonplused on 05.21.20 at 1:47 am

#137 AGuyInVancouver on 05.20.20 at 7:32 pm
With the better part of a million people unable to pay their mortgages I think the question has been answered. – Garth
_ _ _
Not necessarily. The people I know who requested a mortgage deferral did it in the early days of the pandemic, just to make sure they were able to defer, should they lose their job. They haven’t.

They erred. – Garth

—————————

The rule of law, criminal, civic, and contractual, is the foundation of western society, the most successful society the world has ever seen and having dragged all others up with it. Fools (the 50% who are below average intelligence) think that maybe covid is a good excuse to not pay their rent or their mortgage because perhaps they have realized there aren’t enough police to respond to it immediately. But don’t think it’ll work. The law in the wild west was mostly enforced by the six-shooter, and the law abiding citizens always rallied around their sheriff. The “KeepYourRent” and mortgage deferral crowd will end up homeless or if they try violence dead. That is just the rules. Only a communist revolution could stop it but that isn’t going to happen. We know by now about communism. When you have communism more people die than if you have to fight a war. There is only so many free chickens to go around.

The “KeepYourRent” and mortgage deferral crowd should be shopping Canadian Tire for a cheap tent. They are going to need it. “Ass, grass, or cash, nobody rides for free.”

#198 51 States on 05.21.20 at 1:57 am

You should do a piece on central banks obtaining MBS during a crisis. Covid has the FED dipping their toes in again. Is this north state we call Canada any different?

#199 David McBurney on 05.21.20 at 5:53 am

Straight up – Confiscation

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/feds-to-unveil-today-details-of-loan-program-for-large-corporations-1.1438687

If Trudeaus demand as announced is accepted it will mean that

a)landlords no longer have a right to set rates on leases or enforce terms.

b) residential tenants set rents and may choose not to pay at their option

c) you are now in a business partnership with the Liberal government.

I warned you if confiscation two years ago. Either grow up and admit theirs a really big problem or you’ll find out what’s next. I know, but I keep telling you and you won’t listen so, out of spite, embarrassment and childish vanity I’m banning you.

#200 under the radar on 05.21.20 at 5:57 am

If there was a tidal wave of defaults don’t dismiss a moratorium on Banks issuing Power of Sales on their CMHC insured mortgages as those mortgages originate with 20% down or less and those mortgages the Feds directly backstop.

#201 Jason on 05.21.20 at 6:32 am

“Asking for a friend, how do you remove someone out of your investment property, if they illegally broke in and squatted there for a month before you realized it?”

– This is trespassing. Start by telling them this. Then call the police.

#202 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.21.20 at 7:00 am

#174 Faron on 05.20.20 at 10:29 pm whinez, in part:

“#130 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.20.20 at 7:11 pm

Even in the middle of a real absolute disaster Whitmer can’t stop herself from virtue signalling.

————

What the hell are you talking about? The only quote from her in the piece is her making a boilerplate request for federal aid. The real jerk is the orange fellow who made an a-political natural disaster into some kind of crappy put down. Way to bring people together.

Yeah, keep pulling out your pet phrase “virtue signalling”. Sounds like you have a mind control problem.

It’s way past beer time.”
———————————————————–

HAHAHA! CBC “updated” the article and changed her quote as it made her look bad.

BTW, has anyone seen Blackdog and Faron in the same place at the same time? They both seem to have the same indignant whiney condescending snarl of the constantly offended.

#203 Ballingsford on 05.21.20 at 7:03 am

Excellent post Garth! Very telling! And yes, trees dont grow to the sky. They all have a predetermined height by nature. Millenials must have
been read Jack and the Beanstock to them when they were young and believed they’d reach the sky.

#204 Karen on 05.21.20 at 7:17 am

To Mr. Covid Barber Post 145-

Listen Sir, your actions are threatening the lives and safety of others. I have posted your comment on Facebook. I and the rest of the soccer moms will find you, and we will out you. Our children’s safety depends on it.
I hope the authorities throw the book at you. If they don’t I’ll call the manager. Or even my MP.

#205 Wrk.dover on 05.21.20 at 7:18 am

That dog looks like Ralph Malf, Happy Days!

#206 Do we have all the facts on 05.21.20 at 7:21 am

It is time we acknowledged that political leaders around the world are human and as humans are wired to look for the easy way out. Throughout history human beings have created wealth through exploitation.

When an opportunity to exploit a situation, African slaves is a horrific example, occurred human beings had little trouble adjusting their moral compass. Over the past 200 years large fortunes were built through the exploitation of cheap, and often underaged, labour first at home and then in underdeveloped countries. Not slavery but far from ethical.

In recent years human beings around the world have decided to improve their quality of life through the exploitation of cheap credit. Once hooked on the ability to push all obligations to pay into the future our moral compasses were easily reset.

The generation that is exploiting an opportunity to improve their quality of life never sees their actions in a negative light.

In time the massive amount of debt generated around the world during the past 20 years will be viewed through a more critical lens. Future generations will ask what were they thinking? Did they really think that expanding the supply of money by borrowing from future generations could last forever?

It might be time to consider whether our addiction to, and tolerance for, inexpensive credit has consequences for future generations.

We have come to believe that our governments have the ability resolve a possible downturn by borrowing our way out of debt. Whenever we get into a pickle that threatens our quality of life our governments will find a way to push our problems into the future.

At some point the music will stop and we may not be close to a chair.

#207 Steven Rowlandson on 05.21.20 at 7:22 am

“Home ownership is like blood pressure,” he told them. “You can have too much of it.”

That is a lie. Every man ought to have a home.
Home prices are like blood pressure. You can have too much of it! Too big a price and too much debt to be precise.

A home does not mean a house, nor need be owned. – Garth

#208 Wrk.dover on 05.21.20 at 7:26 am

Farron, you are arguing with Mitch McConnell.

There. Outed!

#209 maxx on 05.21.20 at 7:38 am

@ #12

To which I’d add: “and Canucklehead’s overwhelming fiscal stupidity”.

The general population has just enough cash to hang itself with.

Combine that with simian monetary policy and welcome to a brand new day…………

#210 YouKnowWho on 05.21.20 at 8:13 am

Frankenumber!

Don’t forget that Real Estate cartels scrub, normalize, massage, shape the data still with the numbers they release, right Garth? HPI? That will come in handy now in controlling the % decline messaging.

It’s not raw data we’re getting from these RE dudes. It’s disinfected for our safety!

#211 Upset Guy from Hamilton on 05.21.20 at 8:13 am

Yesterday’s goodies..
“No matter who you are or where you live, we’re here to support you,” Trudeau said today at his daily briefing. “This is money to help you get through a very tough time.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also announced the new maximum payments for the 2020-2021 benefit year, which include a boost to help families keep up with the cost of living in the year ahead.

Canada’s inflation rate fell to an annualized –0.2 per cent in April, as the COVID-19 pandemic pushed down consumer prices for the first time in more than a decade.

I’m glad the government is giving “families” cost of living increases, while the cost of living is actually going down. (Both figures from CBC, published on the same day)

#212 Q2 DUPLEX DRIVE on 05.21.20 at 8:30 am

Hey Garth –

Fine column. I can say that, because several years back I read your piece on living small and loving it. I have a well-paying job on Bay Street, zero debts, save like crazy (CPP and OAS go right into my RRSP). rent an apartment at Young & Eligible and endeavour to remain both light and liquid. Your advice worked. A shame others didn’t heed it.

#213 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 8:32 am

@#189 happygolucky
“And, if restaurants, bars, clubs, patios, and malls would open in full swing tomorrow they would be full again, last week I saw over 10 boats launching in small marina on Fraser near YVR, no signs of recession or depression yet.”

++++

I’d say a lot of people were using their boats and campers to get out of the Lower brain land Nazi occupied “Self Isolation” camp.
After 2.5 months of this involuntary navel gazing…. the unwashed rabble are starting to rebel.

As for construction sites, restaurants, etc and workers…
Give it a few more months. 6 ? 9 ?
The airlines, hotels, etc are still crushed and the free 2k CERB money can not last forever.
I think the real economic gong show will start in the Fall when this virus comes back full bore. (Nov.?) and we have to go back into “lock down”.
Either way.
Nervous banks funding multi story, multi year construction towers for flippers and speccers?
Not this time.
Not with the media already clamoring for Trudeau to stop handing out money to anyone that whines poverty and announce some sort of repayment plan.
Fiscal reality rock meets Economic hard place.
No matter how much Mr Butz clicks his heels and wishes it to go away.

#214 Dharma Bum on 05.21.20 at 8:35 am

This will be like a pre-colonoscopy prep gut flush for those that had no business being in the game in the first place.

Ya pays yer money – ya takes yer chances.

#215 Dharma Bum on 05.21.20 at 8:39 am

…Didn’t have no welfare state…those were the days!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs58_ZvsbBI

#216 Dharma Bum on 05.21.20 at 8:47 am

#181 Crowdedelevatorfartz

Mine is farting in elevators and making people stop their inane conversations ….usually about the weather……

Whats yours?
——————————————————————-

Public urination.

A real head turner.

#217 Howard on 05.21.20 at 8:57 am

#210 Q2 DUPLEX DRIVE on 05.21.20 at 8:30 am
Hey Garth –

Fine column. I can say that, because several years back I read your piece on living small and loving it. I have a well-paying job on Bay Street, zero debts, save like crazy (CPP and OAS go right into my RRSP). rent an apartment at Young & Eligible and endeavour to remain both light and liquid. Your advice worked. A shame others didn’t heed it.

———————————

With rents in Toronto falling, you may want to have a little chat with your landlord. Check out units of similar size and quality around Young & Eg to verify whether you have a reasonable case to request lower rent.

#218 IHCTD9 on 05.21.20 at 8:58 am

#209 Upset Guy from Hamilton on 05.21.20 at 8:13 am
I’m glad the government is giving “families” cost of living increases, while the cost of living is actually going down. (Both figures from CBC, published on the same day)
—- –

A great way for Canadians to reduce the cost of living would be for us to defund the CBC, and de status the Libs.

But, we’ll probably do the opposite, come this fall.

#219 Benchmarking on 05.21.20 at 9:03 am

Hey Garth,

Just curious — In very broad strokes, how are people’s portfolios doing on the Covid recovery we’ve seen in the last few weeks?

Are portfolios back in the black on the Year to Date, or typically still in the red on YTD?

Yesterday’s bump put me back in the black, but I don’t know if that’s good, or par for the course.

Tx!

#220 CanadIain on 05.21.20 at 9:05 am

Halifax is truly clownworld at the moment. New houses on my subdivision are selling like hotcakes, I just don’t understand it. Luxury condos are popping up in the burbs. People are driving fancy cars everywhere. In Halifax! Where are the jobs? Why are people buying houses at this time? Very odd.

#221 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 9:07 am

#194 WUL on 05.21.20 at 1:43 am

But, were I a partner with a young woman, still in my long vanished age of fecundity and interested in producing offspring, I’d look closely at the deficiencies in the provision of maternal health care for ordinary folks in that locale. If memory serves, Tejas ranks on the level of the likes of Namibia / Kazakhstan or thereabouts. I welcome correction.

—————–

Texas has full first-world western healthcare. We have several friends there with families.

Where do you get the Namibia / Kazakhstan reference?

#222 bridgepigeon on 05.21.20 at 9:18 am

With every hustling small business owner getting 40 K windfall from Trudeau to play with, many will be transferring this into down payments, keeping the bubble alive.

Silly comment. The loan is repayable, save for ten grand. And what does that buy you? CFIB says over 50% of small businesses can’t make June rent. – Garth

#223 BrianT on 05.21.20 at 9:19 am

#103NSNG-reminds me of a fortune cookie I got one time-the rich man has many problems-the starving man only has one problem.

#224 45north on 05.21.20 at 9:24 am

“Trees don’t grow to the sky,” Siddall says. “The musical chairs game is going to come to an end. Young people, who are very highly leveraged will suffer.”

I just listened to Bill Morneau reply to Pierre Poilievre in the House of Commons. Morneau talks about helping Canadians but it’s really a non-answer. Morneau sees the same thing that Siddall sees – Canadians are going to bear the consequences. If Morneau wants to be helpful, he first has to tell people what the consequences are going to be. People are going to find out.

#225 TurnerNation on 05.21.20 at 9:28 am

In Soviet Kanada government own you.
We must fulfill the new production quotas. Winter is coming comrades.
………………
“The plan is known as the Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility or LEEFF. It is for companies with annual revenues of $300-million and more. Ottawa will lend money to large companies that cannot meet their needs through the market. Executive pay will be capped at $1-million, dividends and share buybacks will not be allowed, and collective bargaining and pension agreements must be respected. The Globe says that is reasonable, since this is about helping workers and companies, not investors. Ottawa is also requiring that companies publish their climate change plans. The minimum loan amount is $60-million.
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#226 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 9:39 am

Stan Brooks: interest rates have now gone negative.

Does this mean an inflation-adjusted pension has to pay back?

#227 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 9:48 am

#218 CanadIain on 05.21.20 at 9:05 am

Think about the stupid levels of home costs. Somebody inner city Toronto who is willing to gave up the wokeness can buy a place on the outskirts and have a vacay home in NS like Garth did. Same in Vancouver and a couple other majors.

Here on the prairies lots of people cashed out downsized and bought a winter home in AZ.

Its absolutely asinine to pay millions of dollars for a home on the tundra.

#228 IHCTD9 on 05.21.20 at 9:49 am

#185 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 12:06 am
#144 Faron on 05.20.20 at 8:27 pm
#125 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:57 pm

#120 Faron on 05.20.20 at 6:33 pm

Denigrate the military if you like

—————–

I strongly question any claims that the military should be the primary rung on any upward mobility ladder.

—————–

Well, let’s see: my army buddy Robert Pickle leads the ISS refueling pod program at NASA, my battalion commander is now a Senator, Chris Hadfield was the second Canadian to the ISS, and the first to command it.

Hmmm… facts point to military service being quite a good rung. Perhaps one of the best.
——

It’s a great option. I am surrounded by retired military. My neighbour has been retired since 1989, more years than he put in. There’s several cops/fire fighters around here with military backgrounds, these jobs pay top dollars with great DB pensions (now they got 2).

CAF officers start out at 50K at 22 years old after a free degree, can make 6 figures after a few hops up the ladder, and can retire at 43 with full pension and benefits.

#229 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 10:16 am

@#226 IHCTD9
“CAF officers start out at 50K at 22 years old after a free degree, can make 6 figures after a few hops up the ladder, and can retire at 43 with full pension and benefits.”

++++

Shhhh, don’t tell faron…..

#230 IHCTD9 on 05.21.20 at 10:18 am

#181 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.20 at 11:12 pm
@#144 faron
” I strongly question any claims that the military should be the primary rung on any upward mobility ladder. Seeing recruiting centers aside payday lenders in minority neighborhoods is a pretty good hint at their target audience.”

++++

Recruiting agencies also locate near colleges an universities for ROTC officer material.

——-

Yep. My eldest has aspirations to join the CAF as an officer. Over 5000 applicants for 300 and change positions. I went to the open house at RMC and while the literature says you need “X” grades to apply, the speaker said you’ll need 90%+ average based on the quality of the applicants.

The reality is you basically need to be an honours student, have done lots of volunteer work, be in great physical shape, pass an integrity screening, and pass an interview with a counsellor to have a shot.

The requirements are high, and it ain’t because it’s a pc of cake getting in, or That the job sucks…

#231 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.20 at 10:25 am

@#218 Canadian
“Luxury condos are popping up in the burbs. People are driving fancy cars everywhere. In Halifax! ”
+++

“Luxury” condos in Halifax? Whats that mean? No outhouse?

Fancy cars driving everywhere…… 2k CERB cheques and a 5 year lease might explain that one…

The last sunny days of oblivious spending before the growing economic storm…..

#232 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 10:37 am

#175 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.20.20 at 10:38 pm
#125 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:57 pm
#120 Faron on 05.20.20 at 6:33 pm

Denigrate the military if you like. Doing it without personal experience rings hollow. It (the military) is critical to a country and people get hurt in combat. Some appreciate those who serve, others feel criticism is more useful.

It worked out great for me, paid for an engineering undergrad and grad degrees, backstopped my first mortgage and has helped in almost every area of my life since separating. If I ever lose all means of support, VA will pay me $14,000 a year.

—————–

Seems like you lived on the Government’s dime all your life

—————–

Haha, you bet! That’s me, the govvie leech.

I’ve never opposed taking advantage. Just don’t like paying taxes, that’s all.

#233 Trojan House on 05.21.20 at 10:44 am

#198 David McBurney on 05.21.20 at 5:53 am

I was talking to a small business owner yesterday about this. He says it’s all BS. Yes, the feds will contribute 50% but it’s optional for landlords. In his case, his landlord didn’t opt in. So he has to pay 50% and the government of course is restricting the number of people that can be in his business. So his numbers are way down even though he was able to re-open and still has to pay half the rent, heat, hydro, taxes, etc. He says if the restrictions go on much longer, he may have to close.

#234 JB on 05.21.20 at 10:48 am

#156 HellYeah on 05.20.20 at 9:27 pm

Drunk and trying to read the comments without losing my mind because of the non-critical thinking skills of some posters.
Which made me wonder: what ever happened to Smoking Man and his *ahem* insightful *ahem* commentary?
………………………………………………………………….
We all are conjecturing where the hell the sagacious purveyor of incongruous irrational yarns has departed to. Perchance down the rabbit hole? Red pill or Blue? E.T. …Phone…Home. …? He is merely pressing the re-tweet button on Twitter these days, forlornly he may be nigh the finale of his persona.

#235 Wrk.dover on 05.21.20 at 10:50 am

@#218 Canadian
“Luxury condos are popping up in the burbs. People are driving fancy cars every

—————————————————

Small town wrinklies moving near centralized health services and no lawns or snow shoveling.

Let ’em.

#236 Freedom 57 (I was a slow learner) on 05.21.20 at 10:52 am

#226 IHCTD9 on 05.21.20 at 9:49 am
#185 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 12:06 am
#144 Faron on 05.20.20 at 8:27 pm
#125 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:57 pm
#120 Faron on 05.20.20 at 6:33 pm

The military may not be for everyone. But for those who can hack it, there’s no life like it. After losing a couple of jobs right out of college (a downturn in the economy in the early 80s), I joined the military. Best decision I ever made.
It wasn’t all fun and games. There were several months each year away from loved ones, as well as missed birthdays and unfortunate funerals. Times deployed in war zones, and fourth world countries in Africa were not not enjoyable either. But the military has it’s positives:
a. serving Canada,
b. helping people,
c. appreciating what we have here in Canada, and
d. travelling the world.
You’ll never become a millionaire working in the military, and you may never own an Audi, or Land Rover, but if you stick with it for 20+ years, you’ll earn yourself a decent pension to help you through retirement.

Both my sons left Ontario several years ago, to go work in Edmonton, in oil field related jobs. After a constant period of employment/unemployment they saw the light. One joined the military two years ago, and the other one starts this fall. Provided they can hack it, and put in a honest day of work, they have a job for life. They both couldn’t be happier.

#237 JB on 05.21.20 at 10:57 am

#218 CanadIain on 05.21.20 at 9:05 am

Halifax is truly clownworld at the moment. New houses on my subdivision are selling like hotcakes, I just don’t understand it. Luxury condos are popping up in the burbs. People are driving fancy cars everywhere. In Halifax! Where are the jobs? Why are people buying houses at this time? Very odd.
……………………………………………………………….
Halifax and in general the area around it is beautiful and any sane person would want the relaxed lifestyle, extremely friendly people and wonderful natural beauty. Perhaps they are astute in the fact that a large number of people living here in the big smoke are going to hang their hats after the purge and take their money and run. You could retire down there nicely with the right amount of investment funds. Just don’t go there for work!

You were probably thinking of Calgary. – Garth

#238 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 10:59 am

If there is to be a new social contract in Canada, and that looks to be the path, then it needs to go all the way.

If you are a UBI recipient and choose not to work, then your rights fall behind the people who pay for you, simple as that. I suggest they lose the right to vote as a result.

Or if you want UBI and don’t want to work, then you have to put in X number of hours doing volunteer work. Lots of gum to scrape and graffiti to paint over.

Not being a productive member of society has costs.

#239 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 11:01 am

#172 sailedaway on 05.20.20 at 10:26 pm
#21 Sail away on 05.20.20 at 12:32 pm

So happy to be subsidizing your lifestyle…

—————

Thanks mate! You’re the best.

#240 Was down in the new ... on 05.21.20 at 11:04 am

#193 happygolucky on 05.21.20 at 1:43 am

#41 Grunt on 05.20.20

Wonder if RV motorhome sales will spike from fear of hotels, flying, taking the train etc?
—————————————————————

No, they won’t.
But old RV or even school buses are “new trend and lifestyle” in Van BC out of “fear of landlords”
——————————-

“brewery district” in Van a while ago. It was like an RV graveyard. Got lucky and found a parking space only because I have a small car. I guess the coppers leave them alone there.

#241 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 11:08 am

#228 IHCTD9 on 05.21.20 at 10:18 am
#181 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.20 at 11:12 pm
@#144 faron

” I strongly question any claims that the military should be the primary rung on any upward mobility ladder. Seeing recruiting centers aside payday lenders in minority neighborhoods is a pretty good hint at their target audience.”

—————

Recruiting agencies also locate near colleges an universities for ROTC officer material.

—————

Yep. My eldest has aspirations to join the CAF as an officer. Over 5000 applicants for 300 and change positions. I went to the open house at RMC and while the literature says you need “X” grades to apply, the speaker said you’ll need 90%+ average based on the quality of the applicants.

The reality is you basically need to be an honours student, have done lots of volunteer work, be in great physical shape, pass an integrity screening, and pass an interview with a counsellor to have a shot.

The requirements are high, and it ain’t because it’s a pc of cake getting in, or That the job sucks…

—————

But Faron suggested the only ones who get in are poor, dumb, disenfranchised minorities who know not what they do?

There’s that box again.

#242 TurnerNation on 05.21.20 at 11:20 am

^ See we are in the Compliance stage even for corporations. If you want handout money you must comply comply comply with government.
Ask yourself the next stage…once the Compliance phase is largely complete. Hint: check your history books.

At this early stage we see they have made an effort to take out the weak: Poor getting poorer; elderly wiped out; preventative care is banned at the hospitals. And the kids…forbidden to play with each other.
But why? Hint: check your history books.
(There is a different line-up for those with strong backs, able to produce for the State.)

There is ample room on this blog for a new ID :
‘Home Hardware Lady in Line’
What salacious news might be fed to us via that ID!

#243 Blog Bunny on 05.21.20 at 11:31 am

Regarding UBI and being productive…

Rejecting work as a way of life for a Christian is a sin against the 8th commandment. Work is penance for the original sin (I have a lot of choice words I am going to say to Eve in heaven for eating that stupid apple).

If you can work, living off the work of others is equivalent to stealing. Governments implementing excessive taxation is also a form of stealing.

The Bible says: “If a man does not want to work, he shall not eat.”

#244 Yuus bin Haad on 05.21.20 at 11:40 am

Fact-checker alert: “I told you so.” Never?

#245 DownToFinance on 05.21.20 at 11:49 am

Government (CMHC) to banks: Give out as many mortgages as you can!
Banks to Government (CMHC): But what about those high risk mortgages? We don’t want to give out mortgages worth more than 80% of the value of the property.
Government (CMHC) to banks: No worries, we’ll insure those high risk mortgages for you. Go give mortgages to anyone that has a pulse!
… defaults rise…
Government (CMHC) to taxpayer: Sorry buddy, here’s your bill, you gotta pay for all this.

I’m happy Evan Siddall at least has the cojones to tell the government their housing policies are what got us here in the first place but I don’t know why CMHC was ever allowed to insure asset backed securities and the riskiest ones at that. CMHC should be dismantled and the high loan to value, high risk positions given back to the banks. When bank shareholders see that level of risk on their balance sheets watch how quickly they start to restrict credit and tank the housing market themselves. As taxpayers we are not given the option to refuse to insure those high risk assets via CMHC. Sad ponzi scheme this country has built.

#246 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 11:53 am

#241 Blog Bunny on 05.21.20 at 11:31 am

Umm we aren’t talking about lepers and salt mines here.

Just if you cannot or will not work or better your station in life, you have to find another way to give back to society at large. Lots of ways to do that. But getting $2k a month to stay home and play super Mario like our PM does, will not cut it.

#247 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 11:57 am

2 more retailers bite the dust this am.

#248 IHCTD9 on 05.21.20 at 12:00 pm

#239 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 11:08 am
#228 IHCTD9 on 05.21.20 at 10:18 am
#181 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.20 at 11:12 pm
@#144 faron

” I strongly question any claims that the military should be the primary rung on any upward mobility ladder. Seeing recruiting centers aside payday lenders in minority neighborhoods is a pretty good hint at their target audience.”

—————

Recruiting agencies also locate near colleges an universities for ROTC officer material.

—————

Yep. My eldest has aspirations to join the CAF as an officer. Over 5000 applicants for 300 and change positions. I went to the open house at RMC and while the literature says you need “X” grades to apply, the speaker said you’ll need 90%+ average based on the quality of the applicants.

The reality is you basically need to be an honours student, have done lots of volunteer work, be in great physical shape, pass an integrity screening, and pass an interview with a counsellor to have a shot.

The requirements are high, and it ain’t because it’s a pc of cake getting in, or That the job sucks…

—————

But Faron suggested the only ones who get in are poor, dumb, disenfranchised minorities who know not what they do?

There’s that box again.
——-

Too many MM documentaries perhaps?

RMC is probably the toughest university to get accepted at in Canada. You won’t find it compared to standard Institutions though, because you get a military education there, not a civilian one.

The toughest University in Canada to get in to is York University, they have the lowest acceptance rate in the country of only 27% of applicants.

RMC’s acceptance rate is around 14%. It has in the past been as low as 10%, about double that of Harvard.

#249 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 12:05 pm

#174 Faron on 05.20.20 at 10:29 pm
#123 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:46 pm

Google morbidity ya goof. But thanks for upping the mortality number, that just makes it look more risky and like a worse option to force kids into when they had the bad luck of being born in a shit environment. If you think it is just for a bunch of rich a-holes in government to command people into wars that are intended to enrich themselves, then your sense of justice is pretty effed.

————–

You seem pretty hot here, Faron, and irritated with the military and people who choose to join. Even to the point of suggesting only dumb shlubs with no other option would ever consider enlisting to protect our borders.

I’m interested: what would you propose?

-Do away with the military completely?
-Make all military service completely nonviolent so nobody gets wounded or gets PTSD? Maybe give red penalty cards like soccer?
-Strongly discourage people from joining the military because it might be dangerous?

All kinds of criticism, no solutions. Fairly common theme of a certain subset, actually.

#250 the Jaguar on 05.21.20 at 12:33 pm

‘You were probably thinking of Calgary. – Garth’

Mercy. Good thing the Jag is around to defend the reputation of this city and province like a junkyard dog.
Raining steady today in the Stampede City, but still lots of snow in the mountains and almost June 1st.
River is rising, and they have been working on the Pump Station in Sunnyside for more than two years and it’s still incomplete. Could be time to break out the Wild Turkey.

#251 Stan Brooks on 05.21.20 at 12:34 pm

#224 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 9:39 am
Stan Brooks: interest rates have now gone negative.

Does this mean an inflation-adjusted pension has to pay back?

———————————

Real inflation of necessities and current interest rates are 2 very different things.

If not for central bank ‘buying’ bonds (federal, provincial, municipal, corporate ‘in order to diversify their investment portfolio’ /LOL)rates would have been probably much higher in order to account also for the current risks.

#252 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 12:48 pm

#245 IHCTD9 on 05.21.20 at 12:00 pm

RMC is probably the toughest university to get accepted at in Canada. You won’t find it compared to standard Institutions though, because you get a military education there, not a civilian one.

The toughest University in Canada to get in to is York University, they have the lowest acceptance rate in the country of only 27% of applicants.

RMC’s acceptance rate is around 14%. It has in the past been as low as 10%, about double that of Harvard.

————

Your son might want to consider the US. They are far more supportive of the service, give even more excellent benefits, and by the end of his service he’d be eligible for citizenship if he wanted.

A lot more availability and better pay.

And location wouldn’t really matter since he’ll be constantly moving around with either country, so always a plane ride away.

#253 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 1:05 pm

#174 Faron on 05.20.20 at 10:29 pm
#123 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:46 pm

I’m done arguing with you and wasting both of our time. Everyone’s entrenched, it’s pointless.

————

Not my fault your arguments are bad.

So now you’re stomping away from the blog in a huff again? What’s this- the fourth time?

#254 Faron on 05.21.20 at 1:06 pm

#246 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 12:05 pm

#174 Faron on 05.20.20 at 10:29 pm
#123 Sail Away on 05.20.20 at 6:46 pm

All kinds of criticism, no solutions. Fairly common theme of a certain subset, actually.

——————————-

Your interpretation of my words is based on what you *expect* me to write and think not what I’ve actually written. This is funny, because you have accused me and others of doing the same to you. Go back to square one and read my posts the first of which contained one possible solution. Instead of an accusatory implication of a “certain subset” just strap your nuts on and say what you think that subset is. Take a risk and expose yourself and your beliefs as I have done in responding to you.

TL:DR I’m not arguing against the military or those in it. Nor am I arguing that folks don’t volunteer to join from all walks of life. Nor am I arguing that it cannot help people achieve a viable livelihood. It would be foolish for me to do so because I have four family members that have served and one who still does.

I’m arguing that it shouldn’t be the only viable option especially because it has greater hazard. Again, I presented one solution in my first post: mandatory civil or military service. Another would be expansion of Americorps to help serve underserved communities. Another would be expansion of trade schools and scholarship funding for them. I suspect that the bang for buck metric on non-military programs would be much better because the overhead of weaponry, logistics, housing etc etc.

Good morning darlin’. I’m off to drink my kale smoothie and get my chakras cleaned.

#255 Toronto_CA on 05.21.20 at 1:08 pm

#182 Bella Horrida on 05.20.20 at 11:20 pm
Here’s an idea: make it possible to put a decent amount in your pension. Treble the TFSA limit. Then people might not be so house obsessed. In the UK, the TFSA equivalent is worth around $18000.
___________

Actually it’s 20,000GBP a year, or roughly $35k Canadian depending on exchange rates.

And if you’re under 40, the government will top you up providing the savings are for important things like retirement, housing, education.

For pension, problem is if you’re one of the ones lucky enough to make more than 150k a year, your pension room goes down until after 312k GBP a year, you get only 4k pounds of pension room. But you’ve got LOADS of TFSA/ISA room.

I kind of like it. Just wish my workplace had a matching ISA plan instead of matching pension, since I get so little room.

#256 BillyBob on 05.21.20 at 1:18 pm

#239 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 11:08 am

But Faron suggested the only ones who get in are poor, dumb, disenfranchised minorities who know not what they do?

————————————————————————————

Begs the question, which category did you join under?

#257 Howard on 05.21.20 at 1:20 pm

#48 Sold Out on 05.20.20 at 2:12 pm
As I stated in yesterday’s blog, I think the CMHC is a despicable, market-meddling, anti-taxpayer abomination of an organization.

Evan Siddall seems to be one of the good guys, but ultimately he is irrelevant.

T2 will never grant him the doubling of the DP minimum or any other cooling policies he is seeking.

The Liberals would prefer the government simply start paying people’s mortgages for them until unemployment drops and hope increased immigration and a hands-off (i.e. encouraging) approach to money-laundering will keep housing buoyant until they are inevitably turfed from office, leaving it to the Conservatives to clean up the mess.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Hahahaha. You mean the same Conservatives that had an opportunity to prevent this entirely predictable outcome, back in 2008? That actively encouraged 40 year amorts and 0% down? That recently ran on a housing policy platform indistinguishable from the Libs and NDP?

————————————-

Get a grip. The 40/0 policy was boneheaded but it was ditched almost as soon as it came into effect. Had next to no impact.

The Scheer Conservatives are too globalist and market-meddling, I agree with you, but I can’t see them throwing money at teenagers and foreign students to sit at home and play video games all day.

So yes, as occurred with the McGuinty/Wynne disaster in Ontario, eventually Conservatives at the federal level will be forced to clean up this mess.

#258 Howard on 05.21.20 at 1:25 pm

#136 Nonplused on 05.20.20 at 7:20 pm
#58 Do we have all the facts on 05.20.20 at 2:42 pm
One touchy subject that our governments seem to be avoiding is the impact of Covid 19 on immigration. It was anticipated that Canada would welcome 340,000 new citizens in 2020 and it is difficult to see how this target will be reached.

——————————–

Why on earth would we want to achieve such targets when the people who are already here are out of work?

——————————–

Which party are they most likely to vote for? There you have your answer.

#259 Faron on 05.21.20 at 1:28 pm

#181 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.20.20 at 11:12 pm

++++

Michael Moore regurgitated.

——-

Enough with the Michael Moore accusation. I don’t even know which film you are talking about and I’m not a fan of his style of shallowly researched gotcha journalism. That approach doesn’t serve anyone well. And, yes, I would have written that before his producer’s green technology film came out.

#260 not 1st on 05.21.20 at 1:43 pm

#182 Bella Horrida on 05.20.20 at 11:20 pm
Here’s an idea: make it possible to put a decent amount in your pension. Treble the TFSA limit. Then people might not be so house obsessed. In the UK, the TFSA equivalent is worth around $18000.

There is no sense putting a dime into TFSAs or RRSPs anymore. Trudeau will be raiding those like a bandit.

I would be selling out of any registered fund except RESP.

#261 Freedom 57 (I was a slow learner) on 05.21.20 at 1:51 pm

#249 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 12:48 pm “Your son might want to consider the US. They are far more supportive of the service, give even more excellent benefits, and by the end of his service he’d be eligible for citizenship if he wanted.

A lot more availability and better pay.”
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Both my sons have dual citizenships, so they could’ve joined with the US Armed Services or the CAF. Their biological father served in the US, and their step father served in the CAF, so they could hear the pros/cons of both.
After considering both, they said the benefits joining the CAF outweighed the US Armed Services. That included career progression and promotion, pay, and pension, which were important to them.
I would agree some aspects of the US Military is better, (chances to live overseas, discounts, and freebies, etc) but if that isn’t on the top of one’s list of benefits, than you’re better off in the CAF.

#262 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 4:30 pm

#255 BillyBob on 05.21.20 at 1:18 pm
#239 Sail Away on 05.21.20 at 11:08 am

But Faron suggested the only ones who get in are poor, dumb, disenfranchised minorities who know not what they do?

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Begs the question, which category did you join under?

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Poor, dumb and disenfranchised obviously. Where did you do your service?

#263 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 4:48 pm

#260 Freedom 57 (I was a slow learner) on 05.21.20 at 1:51 pm

#249 Sail away on 05.21.20 at 12:48 pm “Your son might want to consider the US. They are far more supportive of the service, give even more excellent benefits, and by the end of his service he’d be eligible for citizenship if he wanted.
A lot more availability and better pay.”

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Both my sons have dual citizenships, so they could’ve joined with the US Armed Services or the CAF. Their biological father served in the US, and their step father served in the CAF, so they could hear the pros/cons of both.

After considering both, they said the benefits joining the CAF outweighed the US Armed Services. That included career progression and promotion, pay, and pension, which were important to them.
I would agree some aspects of the US Military is better, (chances to live overseas, discounts, and freebies, etc) but if that isn’t on the top of one’s list of benefits, than you’re better off in the CAF.

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Good info.