Don’t be so sure

Not only could you fly Air Canada anywhere, eat out, get a haircut, get your teeth fixed and go to the office in February, but you could also get a mortgage fast, cheap and easy.

No more. We’re risk-on now. Lenders are circling the wagons. And left on the outside could be some of those 750,000 people who thought they’d be smart to defer mortgage payments for six months.

Maybe not. That might have been a fat mistake.

First, understand the profound changes in the mortgage business. Lenders are increasing their loan-loss provisions, refusing to allow HELOC money to be used for rental property down payments, turning down loans for condos where cash flow might be negative and giving end-use buyers a harder time than most ever imagined.

Refinancing or renewing your mortgage might no longer be a slam dunk. Lenders are looking carefully at income, long-term job stability and rejecting anyone taking CERB money. If you had enough income to score a mortgage a few months ago, you might be rejected if the lender has doubts about your position, company or sector. Look at what one of the Big Banks is saying about self-employed folks:

For any application using self-employed income, in addition to standard income documents, the broker must provide us with a description of the business, when established, number of employees, and its current status (e.g., operating, shut down). Note: we may request additional income documents or conduct additional due diligence at our discretion to verify current income/employment status. Additional due diligence will be required to assess the viability of the business post COVID-19. To assist in the assessment, please consider asking your client for their most recent financial reporting, i.e., interim tax reporting.

Not self-employed? There are still problems. Appraisals are coming in lower than three months ago, so approved loans are smaller. Meanwhile real estate values have been falling (down 12% for detached properties in Toronto last month), which could make it harder for refinancing or renewing in the months ahead, especially as many lenders drop their loan-to-value ratios from the previous high of 80%.

Like I said – it’s all about risk. We’re awash in it with almost eight million people on government benefits, and some entire industries crumbling. No wonder all the banks, credit unions and subprime lenders are drawing in their horns, becoming more cautious, conservative and parsimonious.

And then – all those people who have stopped paying their mortgages. What are they thinking?

They must believe there are no consequences. In fact many who can pay (like the blog dog quoted here a few days ago) can cough up the monthly mortgage amount, but have chosen to defer instead. They want to preserve cash. Or use it for other purposes, like investing or renovating. Or they just want to live free for six months. As stated, every dollar in missed payments will be added to their outstanding debt, plus they’ll be hit interest on the arrears. But that could just be the start of their issues with lenders.

The act of deferral, after all, signals to the bank that you cannot pay. You’re breaking a contract, reneging on an obligation and citing extraordinary circumstances (the virus) for your action. Fine. The lenders are being lenient, encouraged by the government. But your decision is a consequential one, and it’s noted. Red-flagged. In your file.

“If you really don’t need it,” says Montreal mortgage broker Peter Quinn, “don’t ask for it. I am sure it will affect your credibility.” Seems CMHC is now routinely asking brokers submitting financing applications if a client has asked for a deferral and, if so, why. “So, an ‘opportunistic’ client or a troubled client will both be treated the same …” Quinn wrote in a Facebook post this weekend, “so when I tell you to avoid deferring payments, believe me, my experience of the past 30 years is solid enough to know what I’m talking about.”

Quinn cites a client who owns six rental properties and asked for a deferral when several tenants couldn’t pay their monthlies, thanks to the virus. Despite good income, credit and equity, the loan was refused by CMHC – because the guy had asked for the deferral. “I’m telling you to avoid this solution at all costs. For those who are currently receiving such leave from your lenders, if you intend to refinance shortly, I recommend that you return to a normal situation as you could experience the same problems.”

If you deferred, did you have a valid financial reason? Did you give an honest explanation? If not, you might have a surprise waiting when you come to renew.

    

On Friday this blog asked you about your personal experiences with the virus. Over six thousand people responded. And while the vast majority have not been infected (to their knowledge), fear of Covid and dying from it, is significant.

Herewith the survey results (6,073 unique responses):
(click on image for enlarged view of survey results)

202 comments ↓

#1 Captain Uppa on 05.17.20 at 1:13 pm

139 people voted that their family relative passed away from Covid 19.

My sincerest condolences.

#2 TurnerNation on 05.17.20 at 1:24 pm

Dear Citizens of [insert country name]. You have been successfully transitioned into a UN post-national state.
All your mayors were on board with the creation of new Smart Cities being slowly rolled out.

No longer will you be travelling for work, post-seconadary school, or to visit family. Due to the very limited availability of airlines, flights, planes; hotels and
car rental companies – which have been shut down.
Travel options within or to outside your city will be very limited to due car-less streets and limited public transit due to budget cuts and ridership declines. With
police budget cuts and rampant unemployment and poverty, travel will no longer be safe to many regions of the globe or country.

In 2021 after a year of Distancing and without cultural events, sports events for adults or children, Frosh week events, kids birthday parties ,or dancing at weddings, festivals or even farmers markets and fairs, some of you will come to see that Distancing as the tool/weapon used to end the Old System. A majority will not. Like a prisoner who has been inside the pen for so long that he no longer has skills required for functioning outside, many will have given up entirely and embraced the New System. Many will have come to rely upon and even find comfort in the daily goverment COVID updates on State TV. Keeping us safe. Some will scurry to update their numbers spreadsheets and statistical values daily as new information is fed to them.

So effective is this current 2020 phase of compliance and enforcement by all Corporations and Governments, into the New System.
The only science being applied is to mind control and population control. It is very effective science. A fantastical online world has been created for you with all
manner of enthralling stories, entertaining Tik Toc videos. All big tech is on board with the New System: Zoom, Google Classrooms, et al

#3 Ronaldo on 05.17.20 at 1:28 pm

A lot of fear. Not surprising given how it has affected some of the people I know (seniors of course). One couple are afraid to come out of their house during the day and only do so for groceries in full PPE. They go outside in the evenings when no one is out there.

Others will scold people in if they are not following the rules. Like children in a park.

Another one carries a hiking pole and sticks it out so that people will keep their distance.

The 24/7 media coverage and the daily morning briefings by our great white leader and his medical expert have really done a great job.

Not sure how some of these people will ever recover from the trauma that this has put them through. Very sad.

#4 Sold Out on 05.17.20 at 1:28 pm

Could future business loans be adjudicated on the same criteria – ie: using the CEWS may lead to banks taking a dim view of future loan applications?

#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.17.20 at 1:32 pm

As the survey shows, the risk is very real and in our minds. It is much worse in rural areas like here in cottage country, with fewer health resources.

Here’s a message from Muskoka’s Mayor:

“I would go back to the instructions from our health professionals and say that people need to stop being selfish, stop rationalizing why your situation is different, why you are an exception to the rule. There are plenty of reasons why people require emergency services that you can’t anticipate. Just by opening up cottages, by putting different trade workers in the same spaces, by turning on electricity, we are increasing the risk of accidents and fires. If you require emergency assistance, that means we’re having to force our front-line health care workers and firefighters, many of whom are volunteers, into social contact. The front-line workers have the highest rate of infection right now, and they have no choice but to be in harm’s way. So to the extent that it’s possible, we need to protect them.”

https://torontolife.com/city/life/stop-being-selfish-should-torontonians-head-to-cottage-country-during-the-pandemic-we-asked-the-mayor-of-muskoka-lakes/

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#6 TurnerNation on 05.17.20 at 1:32 pm

A blog dog mentioned yesterday that in BC the homeless are being purposely spread around by agencies, and into suburbs (Burnaby) else they will lose their benefits. Why? And why last year were we told about tent cities springing up in all places – even Moncton?

I heard a *theory* a few months ago. When you see a homeless person you might think Whew So glad I’m not them. That is, homeless people are the best reminder that you’d better follow the system you are in, do not question it, and play by the rules. Else you could end up like them. Got it tax slave? A tool of compliance. And I tell you we are in the Compliance phase of the New System ($800 tickets anyone?).

The theory went that homeless people are being moved around as a visible social control mechanism. For our minds of course. Into our neighbourhoods. Always they move shelters, injection sites into the dense suburban areas.

When you see how quickly tenants were weaponized against their landlords, it took only two weeks: keep your rent! Would you doubt that all things in society are being turned against us? Police ticketing you for sitting on benches, not protecting you? Hospitals refusing to give preventative care? Courts are closed, you can no longer attest your innocence? Our grandparents fought for that right. Need I go on.

No you would not it’s too scary to you at this time. I understand. That our #1 predator is fellow humans. They have turned ALL systems, and many people (your snitching neighbours) against you.
This is war and the sooner you realize it…

#7 Reclaim Your Mind on 05.17.20 at 1:37 pm

You and I, all humans, inhabit bodies that have evolved over thousands of years to do one thing. Survive. Our systems are designed to identify, isolate and annihilate countless numbers of bacteria and viruses, not just occasionally, but on a regular basis.

In the past decade alone, we have collectively survived at least 2 Novel CoronaViruses, known as SARS and MERS. We have also survived novel strains of influenza like Swine flu and Avian flu. 2 of the above viruses were not only novel, but also Pandemics.

I don’t know why we have decided to allow a bunch of politicians to convince us that this time it’s vastly different than the last time, because it’s not. People will die from this, just as they died from SARS, MERS, and H1N1.

The exact same demographics of society are being affected, ie the elderly and the unhealthy.

We are being forced to do things that are contrary to our physical and mental well-being, to what end? Bend the curve, flatten the curve, squash the curve, no new deaths, no new cases, vaccine…where does it end? Covid19 simply cannot be the single only cause of death that is happening, that we try to prevent or that we care about.

Stop panicking. Think objectively.

Reclaim your mind!

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.20 at 1:37 pm

Interesting topic and stat results.
Only 3 percent of respondents got sick and less than 3 percent died.
The economy is now gutted like a fish and circling the drain.

….and Canadian business are turning their backs on the temporary cash infusion offered by the Libs.
Too little too late.

Layoffs are easier and the feds can pay the EI.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN22T0NC

I was asked by my accountant to consider it and after reading through the endless pc drivel I noticed a small paragraph at the end saying…. “If you accept the funding your company is now obligated to provide an ANNUAL REPORT on how you are reducing your environmental footprint in conjunction with the Liberals Climate Action Plan….”

Ri-i-i-i-i-ight.
Shove your taxpayer money where the sun dont shine.
I’d rather close my doors than pander to a govt that is bankrupting this country with its pc horseshit.
But I’m sure there will be tons of scammers that will line up for the free cash.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAKBN22R2IV

Well done Liberals . Welllll done.

#9 mj on 05.17.20 at 1:41 pm

lots of people questioning whether the Fed will go into negative rates in the states to weaken their dollar. I know that Canada doesn’t want to go into negative rates. But wouldn’t it be the same effect in Canada that the banks drop prime rate to 1.95 rather than the bank of Canada going to -. 25 other than the banks not making as much money. Could that happen, before going negative?

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.20 at 1:47 pm

Two other question that I would have like to have seen on the survey.

Have you been tested for Covid 19?
Do you know anyone( other than health care workers) that has been tested for Covid 19?

Canadian govt says over 1 million people have been tested….

EVERYONE I have asked doesnt know ANYONE that has been tested….

So, would I be wrong in assuming 200,000 doctors , nurses, hospital workers and patients with flu-like symptoms have been tested several times each? …..and no one else?

#11 SOMETHINGS UP on 05.17.20 at 1:47 pm

EVERYTHING PRE-COVID is OFF the table.

Who cares if deferring a mortgage will create problems in the future? SELL n RENT!!

Then take any profits from your sale and BUY GOLD, SILVER, & BITCOIN.

Cuz this whole fiat money financial system is in complete shambles!

The PONZI SCHEME is unravelling before our eyes but we continue to turn the blind eye and hold off on our old ways of doing things.

#12 dogman01 on 05.17.20 at 1:54 pm

When I was young and naive…..

I used to think you should live within your means, I had the fear, I was a job loss away from homelessness (or moving back in with my parents level of humiliation).

But what I have learned along the way is Moral Hazard.

Blockading critical infrastructures will be tolerated. Cheating on CERB (and countless other government services), will be tolerated as it is too much bother to go after you. Reporting illegal fire arms will not be acted upon (NS Rampage guy’s neighbor in 2013), Hiding money abroad in tax schemes under the auspices of big Accountant firms (KPMG and Isle of Man) Panama Papers et will be ignored.

Debt debt debt and stay with the herd, the herd will never be allowed to fall off the cliff, so no consequences.

Garth is old schools, I still am old school, but I am being taught there is protection in the lowest common denominator of the herd.

#13 JBL on 05.17.20 at 1:57 pm

We decided to take two months of deferral for our mortgage. Our lender clearly indicated that there would be no penalty, fee, or adverse affect on our credit. We have since invested this money into our TFSA which we will then transfer to our spousal and my personal RRSP as I am the sole earner in our household and am taxed at the highest bracket. This money ($6500) will now grow tax free for the next 7-8 months or so, then I will receive the tax benefits when this money is transferred to our RRSP and deducted from my income. I do not see any scenario where we will have trouble upon renewal of our mortgage because we took this deferral. Banks are in the business to make money and we have perfect credit and the means to pay our financial obligations. There is no way, in my opinion that there will be any reason for a lender to deny us and will not be jumping at the chance to finance our house at time of renewal. Our mortgage renews in two years so time will tell if this was the right decision for us. My money is on yes it was!

Thanks for the daily insightful reads Garth. I’ve been a long time reader…

J

#14 BrianT on 05.17.20 at 2:00 pm

139 people voted that a family relative passed away from Covid 19. If the survey population is similar to that of the Canadian population approximately 1655 people had relatives die from something other than Covid 19 in the period Mar 1-May 17. My sincerest condolences.

#15 Phil on 05.17.20 at 2:02 pm

I’ll be the first (maybe ) to say it: No free lunch!
Most transactions have a counter-party. That party’s position and interest must be considered before making a financial decision.
We sometimes forget when talking about human statistics there are people behind the numbers and a loss is still a loss no matter how statistically small and there are people who are suffering.
Condolences to all who have been affected.

#16 Swanson on 05.17.20 at 2:02 pm

My condolences to the 139 blog dogs.

Of those who fear being infected, 70% also fear dying from it, even though the mortality rate within the same sample group is just over 2%.

#17 DrC on 05.17.20 at 2:06 pm

Dear Garth and readers of this blog. Need your advice. I’m using Questrade’s Questwealth Portfolios, where my money are automatically invested and the portfolio is reblanaced. I chose the Maximum Risk portfolio recently which returned me all my loses I had before with the balanced portfolio. Now I wonder, should I keep the Maximum Risk portfolio or move to a more conservative Balanced, or even Low Risk portfolio? From one side the economy reopens little by little, from another, the virus is still here and the unenployment numbers are scaring the crap out of me…

#18 KNOW IT ALL on 05.17.20 at 2:08 pm

COVID has taught me how fragile life is.

So yeah am gonna defer those payments.

We might not even be around in 6 months time.

There could be a super-strain of this bug that takes us all out.

Were not guaranteed tomorrow.

#19 crossbordershopper on 05.17.20 at 2:19 pm

This virus might be the turning of the page for Canada as it becomes a banana republic. or as Trudeau calls it “post national” country.
There will be a lot of broken people(business failure), poor people, (lost job), students will not have to go into debt to go to school, they can stay in the basement and play video games and occasionally click on the university class when they have too to get some useless degree in Political Science or something.
its going to be a bad world in lots ways moving forward, the way we interact, work and play.
Canada will have lots trouble moving this economy forward, lots of poor people(needing government handouts will explode), government entitlements(pensions, and health care, child tax, etc will grow and at the same time less tax being collected.
so we will call this the death cross, no not the 50 day moving over the 200 day moving average on a stock chart, the real death cross, where 50% of people don’t pay any taxes at all and everyone who earns more than minimum wage will be taxed at 50%.
20 billion annual deficits will be replaced with structural deficits of 75 to 100 billion a year. no room to move, everything not nailed down will be taxed and the historical taboo will be looked at principal residence, inheritance, lottery winnings etc will be taxed as well as clawbacks on anything, anyone with trivial amounts of savings etc.
like I said the days of old ladies living in paid off houses worth a million and getting a government welfare cheque(gis/oas) and free health care and no taxes for upwards of 30 years of their life are going to come to an end.
nothing against grandma but its truly not fair, and for the people who say they worked all their life and paid taxes and they are entitled to their entitlements(dingman quote), your wrong, the cpp rate started in 1966 at 1.8% of earnings and it will be 11.9% in 2025, the pst in intario started in 1962 at 2%, it now is a blended 13% with a gst inclusion. taxes back in the day were much lower than they are now.
entitlements have exploded and taxes have as well, and now we are entering funny money land, of post monetary theory, where money goes from having no value to no purchasing power, interest rates will go negative, and the economy will not grow for years.
so when the borders open up, fly with me to Florida, first drink on me, im in boyton beach and Hollywood fl.

#20 Do we have all the facts on 05.17.20 at 2:20 pm

I thought the premise behind the Bank of Canada’s decision to buy mortgage backed securities in the open market was to increase the supply of money available for loans.

I understand the need for caution but any tightening of credit will not only slow our recovery but could force the Government of Canada to back all forms of credit issued by financial institutions with some form of guarantee.

If mortgage guys are getting antsy how long before the credit card group start reducing their exposure to risk.

As mentioned many times in this blog Canadians have become seduced by the ease of obtaining credit. Our past seduction is now coming home to roost.

Covid 19 the crisis that gave us a licking and keeps on taking.

#21 Confused on posts on 05.17.20 at 2:33 pm

Thanks for th epistles and survey
To Swanson Does the survey not say
70 percent are not underline not afraid to catch C19 and
79 percent are not underline not afraid they will die from c19?
or did I read that wrong
In terms of knowing people testing I know of three on Vancouver Island.
Two were contact tracing and one had the flu and tested positive. A few days later opps sorry false positive.
One friend was sick as a dog in January before all this happened never got tested, but wondered.

Should of asked the question do you fear yours stocks declining. Yeah! Big time. Every day!

#22 yvr_lurker on 05.17.20 at 2:37 pm

Banks will never lose in any equation. They set all the rules and have the power. Who knows what protocall they will put in to assess the viability of potential renewals. However, they also have to make $$ by ensuring that people are as indebted as possible. Does it make any sense that their credit cards with a few perks still charge around 20% when a GIC is around 1-2%. Low cost cards around 11%.I haven’t had a balance I did not pay-off each month for a decade, but these rates have been ridiculously high for a long time. What I hope is that with the lockdowns that people get a sense that they can do without many consumption purchases they don’t really need. I hope that consumers simply refuse to engage in the same level of mindless purchases. I am enjoying learning to make new dishes, have done some good repairs, and there is no way I am rushing out buying much of anything when the lockdown opens; no need for sitting in a restaurant with a mask with tables separated by plexiglass all the while paying 20.00 for a burger or a fish curry (that I now know how to make myself)…. Not interested… .

#23 TurnerNation on 05.17.20 at 2:44 pm

Want to bet our UN-backed government is working on a big ONLINE Canada Day celebration? Assembly is banned you know. The New System must be normalized at once.
Stand at home and salute Glorious Leader as our best military hardware, the decades old Snowbirds swoop overhead. What a show of power.

Some might be having backyard BBQs and position their Telescreens outside, such that Our Leader and his well-wishing be close by. Such cheer in out hearts. Knowing Our Leader is keeping us safe. Yours and your children’s favourite celebs and animated characters will be tasked to drop by online and lead the cheers, chants.

Celebrations will be followed by the daily Covid update. Here are today’s Win-Loss-Tied scores. Numb to it by now you are simply relieved that all Corporations and government levels continue to “assess the situation and work to keep All Canadians safe.”

#24 RoddyJohn on 05.17.20 at 2:44 pm

Dear Citizens of [insert country name]. You have been successfully transitioned into a UN post-national state.
All your mayors were on board with the creation of new Smart Cities being slowly rolled out.
/////////////////////////////////////////////
i am really curious on how the ‘state’ is regulating the population control you are suggesting??

#25 sailedaway on 05.17.20 at 2:45 pm

Is this an empathy blog for landlords now?

Yeegatzz, if you can play with the big boys get out of the way.

#26 tom black on 05.17.20 at 2:46 pm

Thanks for that Garth, sorry for everyone affected by this in any way. Especially for those that lost someone close. My heart goes out to you. Stay strong, don’t give in your family need you more than ever.

Lots of thoughts on the markets, doesn’t feel right to discuss that atm. I will say that massive losses are ahead, but you all know that right?

Best to all
TB

#27 Data Science and Statistics on 05.17.20 at 2:48 pm

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients

As hospitals were overrun by coronavirus patients in other parts of the world, the Army Corps of Engineers mobilized in the U.S., hiring private contractors to build emergency field hospitals around the country.

The endeavor cost more than $660 million, according to an NPR analysis of federal spending records.

But nearly four months into the pandemic, most of these facilities haven’t treated a single patient.

#28 NewWest on 05.17.20 at 2:50 pm

Interesting survey. I would have liked to see “Have you tested positive for the virus?” rather than “Have you been infected?”

So many people reporting anecdotally that they “must have had it”. Stories like, “Back in February I had a really bad flu, my chest hurt and I had a fever, it must have been the coronavirus.” Maybe it was. But without a positive test we don’t know. It could have been one of many other respiratory infections that people routinely get in the winter in Canada. Those have not gone away, contrary to our current obsession with Covid-19 that seems to assume it is the only virus on the planet.

I wonder what a similar survey would have looked like in a bad flu year in the past. Would people have been as afraid of dying? Yes, flu vaccine, but according to the CDC “During years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to circulating influenza viruses, it is possible that little or no benefit from flu vaccination may be observed.”

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

So in a bad flu year when the vaccine is not well matched to the circulating strains, people in susceptible groups have a higher risk of becoming ill and dying of the flu virus. Why don’t we panic in those years? Why don’t we read stories in the media about the numbers of seniors in care homes dying then?

Human behavior is endlessly fascinating. Oh, and secret conspiracy guys? I’m sorry, I’ve worked in too many bureaucracies to ever believe that there could be enough planning and cooperation to actually do what you are saying world-wide. I mean, come on, you are the first to criticize and denigrate civil servants, calling them stupid, brain dead, and dozens of other insults. So who exactly is running this vast plan if not their equivalent? Five guys in suits at Davos can plan all they want, but all the other people needed to carry out the plan keeping it a secret? I don’t think so.

Evil is much more transparent than that. It flourishes because we are too busy imagining conspiracy theories and ignoring what is going on right before our eyes. It isn’t a secret. I’m far more afraid of the masked, armed vigilantes on the Capitol steps in Michigan, you know, the ones who were allowed to go home after that, no consequences. Or the people burning down cell towers in England because they think 5G signals “activate the virus”. Those are the people we should be worried about.

#29 Data Science and Statistics on 05.17.20 at 2:51 pm

In the middle of the ‘pandemic’, hospital bankruptcies closures and lay-offs of medical stuff.

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/coronavirus-pushes-hospitals-brink-financial-ruin-200508221710099.html

The century-old Henry County Health Center in southeast Iowa was already losing money before the pandemic hit. With a shrinking number of births and trouble recruiting staff, it had planned to close its obstetrics department.

Then came the shutdown, which reduced the hospital’s revenue by half as profitable elective surgeries came to a halt. Even with some procedures set to start up again, Chief Financial Officer David Muhs sees no easy recovery.

“You just can’t turn the faucet back on,” he said.

It’s one of the cruelest realities of the coronavirus pandemic. America’s already-ailing hospitals are being pushed even further into financial ruin, threatening to force a growing number of them to file for bankruptcy or even close. The onslaught could result in some $202.6 billion in losses for hospitals across the country by the end of June, according to the American Hospital Association.

What if the Coronavirus was like the Spanish Flu, I betcha there would remain no hospitals in the US, they would all be closing as Spanish Flu was deadlier than this one…lol

#30 sailedaway on 05.17.20 at 2:51 pm

#12 dogman01 on 05.17.20 at 1:54 pm

Cheating on CERB is fine, no warning no threat.

Small biz owner? How dare you!! We will ask you to say you’ll do something about global warning, you can’t go in business with your spouse (so much for metoo and pseudo feminism from the twats in Ottawa eh?)
You have been warned not to scam the state.

Ask the right questions:

Why didn’t we follow Taiwan’s example?

Why are we working with A Chinese company linked to Chinese military for a vaccine?

Crickets.

Canada has been well and truly neutered by free weed and socialism. Slow clap.

#31 Faron on 05.17.20 at 2:54 pm

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.20 at 10:24 am
@#111 Billy Bob

“Does it really matter where a fricken graph comes from?
Apparently it does to pedants.”

I believe that sources matter and properly referring to your sources also matters. So do you apparently by distancing yourself from BrianT and TurnerNation and their conspiracy theories.

I gave Mr. Rowat the benefit of the doubt and took it as light hearted ribbing.

#32 TurnerNation on 05.17.20 at 2:57 pm

#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! yup they are gearing up to severely limit or ban travel outside of cities. How?
It was already rolled out in Quebec they had checkpoints on all routes out of the city northwards. Locked down. Essential travel only. This was only a few weeks ago. With the kinks ironed out it can be rolled out in your province.
Can the numbers on the telescreens give us a “2nd wave” in time for next spring? Sure can.

Rural/cottage home values will plummet, taxes will skyrocket , the tax base will plummet so services must be cut…and….people will be herded into the big Smart Cities.

There’s no plan or anything folks. This is all happenstance to Keep Us Safe. We are in the Compliance phase, winning public opinion is a key front in that battle. Total spectrum dominance. How dare those ‘rich’ leave their cities will be the cry.

#33 NoName on 05.17.20 at 2:59 pm

Here is interesting table about mrtg in arrears, number is huge4.8M, even if that 750k deferral is included in count.

Ontario alone had 2m mrtg in arrears in dec of last year.

https://cba.ca/mortgages-in-arrears

#34 sailedaway on 05.17.20 at 3:00 pm

#18 crossbordershopper on 05.17.20 at 2:19 pm

50% don’t pay taxes, I read it’s closer to 90%.

I’m not taking anything from this government, zero help, zero assistance. I pay in the system every month, gritting my teeth. Give me back the country I moved to 10 years ago. I’m told I’m in the top 10%…. I don’t feel like I’m in the top 10%, not with the stupid cost of living here.

I encourage Trudeau to keep hitting at those who DO and help those who DON’T. Poppa will be proud when you’ve turned Canada into France.

#35 NoName on 05.17.20 at 3:02 pm

Addendum, got numbers wrong taht 4.8 is total mrt issued.

#36 Brian Ripley on 05.17.20 at 3:02 pm

My chart of Real Prices OF TSX Real Estate & Gold Indexes is up, ie: Nominal Prices divided by Bank of Canada $CAD Commodity Index

http://www.chpc.biz/real-price-of-gold–re.html

For seven years, from April 2013 to March 2020, TSX Gold under performed TSX Real Estate but in April 2020 that nominal metric switched with the Covid 19 crash in the commodity plot.

Gold miner’s profitability depends on the nominal price of gold but also the cost of getting the metal out of the ground. As the cost of mining drops (fuel, and industrial materials), the real price of the mining product rises even in the absence of a nominal price rise; ie: gold mining share prices rise as the real price of gold rises.

My Bitcoin chart is currently showing a countertrend of nominal gold prices rising against nominal real estate and bitcoin prices dropping.

The rising U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could put a damper on this current trend.

#37 Dolce Vita on 05.17.20 at 3:02 pm

Like others here, condolences to Blog Dog families that had C-19 fell a loved one.

Good to read RE lending practices tightening up. Better for the economy in the long run for the next downturn (or pandemic).

#38 RoddyJohn on 05.17.20 at 3:04 pm

#18 crossbordershopper

so when the borders open up, fly with me to Florida, first drink on me, im in boyton beach and Hollywood fl.
////////////////////////////////////////////
Make sure you hurry back from Florida to access our World Class Healthcare. We will maintain our road conditions for your arrival…..

#39 BrianT on 05.17.20 at 3:07 pm

#22Turner-the scary thing is that your outlandish posts haven’t changed at all-real world circumstances are creeping closer and closer to your posts every day here in Bizzaro World Canada. I heard some radio station the other day going on about how great the Online fireworks display is for this weekend. It couldn’t be more ludicrous-if anything has to be experienced in person it is a fireworks display. I watched a Black Mirror episode the other day and it felt like a documentary of Canada 2020.

#40 Faron on 05.17.20 at 3:07 pm

#19 Do we have all the facts on 05.17.20 at 2:20 pm
I thought the premise behind the Bank of Canada’s decision to buy mortgage backed securities in the open market was to increase the supply of money available for loans.

Yeah, it looks like the purchases are ongoing. BofC website shows $235 million purchased last Thursday. I would guess it depends on what percentage of mortgages are taken off commercial bank balance sheets. If it’s a small fraction, then banks still need to be cautious. I would also speculate that there is regulation on the quality of loans that get packaged into MBS. Especially after the GFC when MBS were getting investment grade ratings but contained total garbage.

#41 Howard on 05.17.20 at 3:10 pm

Did the government even attempt to rationalize the GIS bonus money, beyond blatant vote buying?

I don’t quite see how lower income seniors, who were presumably out of the labour market pre-COVID (you can’t get GIS if you’re working, right?) would be impacted by this crisis. For them it’s status quo aside from the inconveniences felt by all.

#42 Gloria on 05.17.20 at 3:10 pm

I remember in the 80s when people had to walk away from thier homes because they owed more then they were worth. Banks would not renew mortgages. I can see that coming around

#43 lifexprt on 05.17.20 at 3:13 pm

wowzers the level of paranoia is more engrained than i thought

condolences to everyone affected but let’s not panic

#44 TurnerNation on 05.17.20 at 3:14 pm

So…you want your travel rights back do you ?

– You must submit to a genetics test. I mean a medical test. But it’s administered by a genetics company. Weird eh? Into the Blockchain you will go.
Or choose 2 week quarantine but who can afford that? You will herd yourself into the genetic, I mean medical test option. What if it comes back positive? Don’t ask…

– And you must submit to 27/4 monitoring. Cool eh.
– In Iceland. Where have I heard that name before. Oh yes, early 2008 they collapsed Iceland’s banking system. On this blog years after I wrote that it was the perfect controlled test bed for a collapse, before it hit worldwide. Today we have another Iceland testbed:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-16/coronavirus-iceland-is-the-perfect-refuge-from-covid-19?
That mindset makes it likely that visitors will have to download Iceland’s Rakning C-19 contact-tracing app for mobile phones.

Iceland’s plan is, from June 15, to offer all visitors the choice between two-week quarantine or a Covid-19 test (the cost of which may have to be repaid at a later date)…. partnering with a Reykjavik-based company called DeCODE Genetics to do so.

#45 TW on 05.17.20 at 3:15 pm

They want you in debt but just enough debt… if you weren’t in debt the banks wouldn’t make money. The BoC started ALL of this mess during the financial crisis by following U.S interest rates down when Canada was NOT in a financial crisis … gave everyone free money to buy houses they can’t afford and drove prices to ridiculous levels. And in the 12 years since never raised them much. So now we have to bail some of those borrowers out, well its the BoC’s fault. They created quite a pickle, now rates are rock bottom and they have no more knobs to twiddle. That decision to follow U.S rates unnecessarily has hurt everyone. Savers, the responsible ones got railed the most as money in the bank and no debt has paid nothing. Thank you BoC.

#46 Faron on 05.17.20 at 3:15 pm

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.20 at 1:47 pm

Have you been tested for Covid 19?

Yes (and it’s effing uncomfortable) and negative. I’m not a medical doctor or health practitioner of any kind.

#47 the Jaguar on 05.17.20 at 3:16 pm

Margaret Thatcher said…”It is our duty to look after ourselves and then also to help look after our neighbour and life is a reciprocal business and people have got the entitlements too much in mind without the obligations, because there is no such thing as an entitlement unless someone has first met an obligation and it is, I think, one of the tragedies in which many of the benefits we give, which were meant to reassure people that if they were sick or ill there was a safety net and there was help, that many of the benefits which were meant to help people who were unfortunate—“It is all right. We joined together and we have these insurance schemes to look after it”. That was the objective, but somehow there are some people who have been manipulating the system “.

That’s a quote from way back in 1987 and to my mind the problem of societal expectations and people feeling they are “owed” something or everything in life has gotten progressively worse since she said it. There are still some people around who consistently demonstrate real ‘character’. (Bill Grable on this blog is a good example).
Speaking of ‘character’, it happens to be one the ‘five C’s” of credit that Banks use to make decisions about whom they deem to be ‘credit worthy’. Character or the sorry lack of it is far easier to uncover than one might think. A quick look at your bank statement for example might show both the CERB payment as well as your payroll deposit, wink, wink. Credit bureau reports are another good source of information. They are like foot prints in the snow for those who are highly adept at reading them.
Never under estimate those ancient warrior Banks. The date on Garth’s office building in Lunenburg is 1907, but the original owner has been around since 1817. Older than this country, and it’s no accident that its ability to survive and thrive wasn’t linked to destiny but to thoughtful decisions, steely determination, and survival instincts. The Bankers are the Border Collies of the financial world. Top of the heap.

#48 Sail Away on 05.17.20 at 3:17 pm

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.20 at 1:37 pm

I was asked by my accountant to consider it and after reading through the endless pc drivel I noticed a small paragraph at the end saying…. “If you accept the funding your company is now obligated to provide an ANNUAL REPORT on how you are reducing your environmental footprint in conjunction with the Liberals Climate Action Plan….”

———————

Oh, I am happily accepting the hundreds of thousands in stimulus and have no problem submitting an annual report that says, ‘Nothing’.

#49 TrendIsYourFriend on 05.17.20 at 3:17 pm

#17 DrC
no wonder Maximum Risk portfolio has recovered, I assume it’s mostly in NASDAQ related stuff.
Just curious, how many transactions they did in a period of, let’s say 3 months?

I suspect all those AI portfolios created by brokers are in no way created and managed to benefit – brokers, through commissions, more transactions- more commission, but for the sole purpose to benefit account holders, wink wink. Maybe I am wrong.

#50 Sail Away on 05.17.20 at 3:22 pm

#17 DrC on 05.17.20 at 2:06 pm

Dear Garth and readers of this blog. Need your advice. I’m using Questrade’s Questwealth Portfolios, where my money are automatically invested and the portfolio is reblanaced. I chose the Maximum Risk portfolio recently which returned me all my loses I had before with the balanced portfolio. Now I wonder, should I keep the Maximum Risk portfolio or move to a more conservative Balanced, or even Low Risk portfolio? From one side the economy reopens little by little, from another, the virus is still here and the unenployment numbers are scaring the crap out of me…

—————-

Let me try my hand at wealth advising:

It depends

#51 Calgary retiree on 05.17.20 at 3:26 pm

Fun with numbers…
The Canadian COVID-19 incidence rate per 100,000 is currently 205 as per the link below.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2020/coronavirus-covid-19-pandemie-cas-carte-maladie-symptomes-propagation/index-en.html

In question 1 there were 5913 responses of whom 160 said they had been infected.
That makes an incident rate of 2705 per 100,000 for this cohort or 13 times the national number and more than 5 times that of Quebec.

Obviously, following this blog causes COVID-19 infection…

#52 Abby on 05.17.20 at 3:30 pm

I think the problem I have with your position of somewhat minimizing the virus, i.e. the survey, is that you are just promoting your coronavirus “position”, as you have every right to. But still it is just YOUR chosen position.

Regardless of whether someone believes they could get the virus and whether it could kill them or NOT shouldn’t be the point.

What about the point being that both positions are equal and correct?

That it is the right of each of us to decide how we feel personally regarding the virus and we move forward with such. We may not agree but we have to accept that others may have a different opinion. Welcome to freedom.

Maybe the role of our government shouldn’t be to take either position but to provide the structure so that I can live freely with my choice?

Personally I have a child with pre existing condition so I’m voting on the side of caution. I am also a single Mom with no extended family so I can’t chance even getting “just really sick” as I have no one to care for my kids. No matter what you say i won’t put my family members at risk.

As an example, I went to a grocery store this weekend with no one abiding or enforcing of physical distancing measures that seemed to be haphazardly put in place. I’m not going to complain or report them. Instead I’m going to vote with my dollars. I left and did some research and found a grocery store that did physical distancing very well and I will support them only going forward. This is my right to not shop at the first store just as it is the right of shoppers at the original store to not physical distance.

I’m frankly tired that any of us think it our right to convince another to accept our position.

We have to stop looking to government to save us from everything and be responsible for our choices. Once you make your choice I think governments role should be provide safety nets for the vulnerable. Not is handouts but in structure to make either choice accessible.

That doesn’t mean I don’t think they (government) shouldn’t step in the keep the health of our essential services (hospitals not being overwhelmed, all public transit is a mask-zone with social distancing) but “flattening the curve” can’t mean eliminating the curve. It’s not possible without a vaccine and I think there has been a huge mistake in the communication during this pandemic.

Leadership would have been to stop trying to convince others of their “rights” but to communicate and develop structure on how we co exist.

Maybe, Garth, our opinions are more alike than I think??

C’est ca.

The survey did not minimize the virus nor exaggerate it. A poll is a poll. It’s agnostic. – Garth

#53 Player24 on 05.17.20 at 3:30 pm

I don’t have answers but the government has totally succeeded in scaring the crap out of people. Well done. You have only destroyed the economy and brought about a wave of mental health problems. The cure is worse than the virus.

#54 Linda on 05.17.20 at 3:40 pm

#33 ‘Sailed’ – being counted as part of the top 10 percent in Canada isn’t as difficult as one might imagine. A household income of $80,400 CAD per annum places one in that category. I read something years ago that said if one’s net worth (assets) exceeded one’s debt; in addition you had money in the bank in excess of what was required to cover your monthly expenditures & finally had a jar of spare change in your possession you could count yourself in the top 10 percent financially in Canada.

#55 Ed McNeil on 05.17.20 at 3:42 pm

#18 CROSSBORDERSHOPPER

That was certainly a long winded rant of doom and gloom. Canada is in for difficulties but we will recover. Two long and very costly wars did not stop Canada. We came out of it stronger than when we went in and certainly will do the same after the corona virus. As for swanning off to Florida, forget it. It is rather naive not to think that the economy there will be any better than Canada’s. You certainly will be a lot safer in Canada.

#56 Jerr on 05.17.20 at 3:42 pm

I agree 100% with comment number 12,
I’ve lived my life the same way but no more.
Now I will live it Up spend it all going to huge amounts of debt and if I can’t pay it who cares I’ll go bankrupt a few years later start over again. No need to save for retirement too difficult, you got to save for yourself and the government. When the time comes they can’t throw you on the street you’ll be taken care of like all the rest.

#57 Shiftless Loafer on 05.17.20 at 3:43 pm

Hi, Garth,
Does deferring one’s property taxes also work to limit one’s credibility with financial institutions? We have been doing so for several years and are considering paying this year because of the possible ramifications you mention.

#58 Dolce Vita on 05.17.20 at 3:48 pm

Pandemic porn calcs follow using data out today that shows it could have been a lot worse and that the lockdown was a good idea (i.e., why herd immunity was a bad idea).

70,000 serological test complete by Spain. They found 5% of the population had lgG antibodies, the type produced with a C-19 infection. Dr. John Campbell discussed at length in his YouTube video today.

Using that data you can compute how many deaths there would have been without a lockdown had we just let people get infected to the magical 70% herd immunity number.

Spain
47 million people, 27562 deaths. 230698 cases. 5% lgG.

47MMx0.05=2.35MM infected.
27,563/2.35MM=1.17% fatality rate.
70% min. for herd immunity; thus, 47MMx0.7×0.0117=

384,930 would have died to get herd immunity.
Infected/Cases Multiplier 2.35/0.2307 = 10.2X

——————-

America
328 million people, 89207 deaths, 1,478,241 cases. Assume 5% lgG.

328MMx0.05=16.4MM infected.
89207/16.4MM=0.00544 or 0.544% fatality rate
70% min. for herd immunity=328MMx0.7=229.6MMx0.00544=

1,249,024 would have died to get herd immunity.
Infected/Cases Multiplier 16.4/1.478 = 11.1X (recall Fauci figures 110K deaths regardless)

——————-

Drum roll, CANADA
37.6 million people, 5882 deaths, 78,072 cases. Assume 5% lgG.

37.6MMx0.05=1.88MM infected.
5882/1.88MM=0.00313 or 0.313% fatality rate
70% min. for herd immunity=37.6MMx0.7=26.32MMx0.00313=

82,348 would have died to get herd immunity (Maple Ridge or Peterborough “gone, gone”).
Infected/Cases Multiplier 1.88/0.078072 = 24.1X (only in Canada)

——————-

The 5% lgG corroborated by other much smaller European studies. Italia in the process of doing a 500,000 nationwide serological test.

So ya, lockdown not fun especially to those that lost jobs, wealth etc. but it could have been MUCH MUCH worse in terms of deaths had we done nothing and let herd immunity without a vaccine do its thing.

DEEP, DEEP down…people’s initial gut feel was correct to be AFRAID. Remember the above fatality rates were under lockdown, probably higher had there been no lockdown (i.e., the above herd calcs are conservative, minimum death estimates).

#59 Abby on 05.17.20 at 3:52 pm

Polls can be biased.

I respect your position that it is agnostic. ;-)

#60 islander on 05.17.20 at 3:53 pm

-add send a package abroad to your list Garth
[fly Air Canada anywhere, eat out, get a haircut, get your teeth fixed and go to the office in February]

“temporary suspension of postal services”

I sent a package to Europe March 13, 2020. It was returned May 15 with the above message plastered on the front along with the suggestion to try again ‘without charge’ when service resumes.

I guess the P.O. hadn’t been kept in the loop!

#61 Leftover on 05.17.20 at 3:57 pm

If you search Realtor.ca with “Canada” as the location and “no preference” for listing type, about 208,000 listings appear. I think that probably includes raw land.

So there are 750,000 mortgages being deferred. How many of those people are biding their time and needing/planning to sell? 10%? 20%?

There’s got to be 100,000 listings coming on this autumn, in addition to the regular moves, estate sales, new builds, etc.

Gives new meaning to the word “Fall”.

#62 Faron on 05.17.20 at 4:00 pm

#17 DrC on 05.17.20 at 2:06 pm

I’m a pessimistic fear monger, so read the following with that in mind.

I personally find it hard to believe that stocks can go much higher this year and that seems to be a large minority of the opinion out there. The shrinking majority is still looking for gang busters Q3 and especially Q4 and onward.

I know equities are forward looking and all, but really how far forward? If stock holders can be so sure that in 1 or 2 or more years things will be rosy, at what point do you just start calling it a bond market?

To answer your question, unless you are going to try to get in there and win some bets, your portfolio will be pretty flat over the next year with a big drop and retracement or two in there just to keep you on your toes. Given that bonds yield about the same as some indexes, it probably doesn’t matter what your mix is. You already made it through the most hair raising drop, so you’ll probably be able to weather the smaller drops that lie ahead and you want to maximally capture any won ground to the upside. Don’t change.

#63 Dolce Vita on 05.17.20 at 4:06 pm

The survey did not minimize the virus nor exaggerate it. A poll is a poll. It’s agnostic. – Garth

Nothing wrong with the survey.

If anything, it overestimates the fatality rate.

To be expected as from other surveys done, the Blog Dog average age seems not to be that of a Spring Chicken.

Also, good to read fewer in fear as lockdown has done its job vis-à-vis the Leger Poll “gone, gone” fear numbers from a few weeks ago. Means things will return to normal faster than many expect.

No images from the Roaring 20’s of people wearing masks and gloves after the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.

Have faith in yourselves Canada, Andrà tutto bene.

#64 Faron on 05.17.20 at 4:15 pm

#51 Abby

A poll is a poll. It’s agnostic. – Garth

Ha ha. That’s a good one.

It’s very easy to subtly or not so subtly write a poll to get exactly the answers you want or to get the political effect you want. Come on Garth, you were in the political arena, you know this.

An extreme example but one that’s used in dirty political campaigns frequently:

“If you knew that Justin Trudeau was involved in a secretive society of world leaders active in climate science would you vote for him?”

[] Yes

[] No

Is that a polling question. Yes. Agnostic? Efff no. It’s clear from your posts and your die hard readers/commenters that you (Garth) are biased toward seeing the virus response as mishandled at best or a dire global overreaction at worst. That comes across in your questions and it was what Abby was picking up on. The result is people will then bias their answers to counter the pollster’s bias or to align with it. It doesn’t suit you or your seemingly intelligent readership to play dumb like this.

Questions were simple and clear. If you don’t like the answers, find another blog. Maybe you could do that anyway. Thanks. – Garth

#65 Blog Bunny on 05.17.20 at 4:17 pm

A man who is truly free has no fear and can not be controlled.

The first step to getting rid of fear is to cut off all media. Stop listening to their babble, fear-mongering, and subliminal messages.

Go out. Look at the beauty around you. Get some sunshine. The light is not only for our eyes, but also for our soul.

Have a great long weekend everyone and enjoy your cottages.

#66 Statistical analysis on 05.17.20 at 4:19 pm

Most polls are conducted with 1,000 people, a poll of 6,000 is 95 percent accurate.
There’s lots of information, if you google fear of dying 43 percent of Americans are afraid to die, this poll was only 20 percent. Draw your own conclusions.

What is interesting the fear of catching versus the fear of dying a ten percent drop which one could conclude 10 percent of those are either under 40 or over 100 because death rates are very low for those age groups.
If you add question 3 and compare to Q2 has a family member have Covid 8.4 percent but the next question did they die or recovery it adds up to 11 percent. Hmmm
Maybe they counted themselves? 8.4 and 2.6 is close to 11 assuming they did not die.
My humble opinion I love statistics.
Have a great weekend when the next conference call?

#67 Penny Henny on 05.17.20 at 4:28 pm

Excuse me sir is this the virus blog?
Anyways.
My friend who’s mother passed away after catching covid in a retirement home, well his aunt was also in the same home and she caught the covid and passed away too.
On the other hand an acquaintance of my wife is in a different nursing home and she has tested positive for covid. It’s been twenty days since and nothing. Healthy as ever, or as healthy as you can be when your 95. She also has hypertension and doesn’t take her meds but that’s another story.

#68 islander on 05.17.20 at 4:29 pm

“I don’t want things to return to normal. What was deemed normal in long term care clearly wasn’t working. What I do long for is a new normal – one where people are cognizant and appreciative of the efforts that professionals in LTC make every day.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/first-person/article-working-in-long-term-care-these-days-is-breaking-my-heart/

Worth a minute of your day………..

#69 BoDiddley on 05.17.20 at 4:32 pm

Great synopsis, Garth.

And this is precisely why the entire ‘system’ needs a complete and total reset. It’s going to be painful and eye-opening for a lot of people when they realize the wild bash is finally over, however, I don’t see any other feasible outcome to this madness.

The global debt-binge had to end at some point. Sorry folks, but you can’t escape the laws of simple mathematics. This is also, as I’ve implying all along, the crisis of 2008-2009 coming back to bite us in the ass. Nothing was solved then and they continue to play the same old shenanigans even now, over a decade later… Debt upon debt upon debt, interest upon interest.

$300 trillion and counting.

To no say of all those poor souls who went out and purchased half-a-million homes they couldn’t afford in the first place, and 2), they won’t be able to unload without taking a huge financial loss as nobody is fool enough to take on a ridiculous mortgage or even more debt, especially right now. Buyer’s remorse I suppose. Too bad. So Sad.

Meanwhile, without delving into conspiracy theories or wild assumptions, there is something more going on here than a mere pandemic or virus. I’m still not entirely sure this whole nightmare is really about a virus, or in the end it proves to be an economic reset of global proportions.

We shall see….

#70 Doug t on 05.17.20 at 4:32 pm

Debt don’t matter no more dudes – Debt Jubilee in the future, Universal Income on its way – why stress? Why try? Why bother?

#71 Ronaldo on 05.17.20 at 4:34 pm

#26 Data Science and Statistics on 05.17.20 at 2:48 pm
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients

As hospitals were overrun by coronavirus patients in other parts of the world, the Army Corps of Engineers mobilized in the U.S., hiring private contractors to build emergency field hospitals around the country.

The endeavor cost more than $660 million, according to an NPR analysis of federal spending records.

But nearly four months into the pandemic, most of these facilities haven’t treated a single patient.

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-1000-hospital-bed-navy-hospital-ship-coronavirus-2020-3
—————————————————————
Yes, and the 1000 bed hospital ship the USNS Comfort which was deployed to New York was there for 1 month and treated all of 182 patients. What was the cost of that I wonder?

#72 To Dolce Vita on 05.17.20 at 4:57 pm

Very interesting
You missed one point they only tested 70,000 people so you are extrapolating any number to reach your conclusion.
A more accurate point would have been
If we tested 1.2 million Canadians and 76,000 people tested positive and 5,882 deaths

The best answer would be How many of the 1.2 million Canadians tested have herded. That answer is the key to this entire problem then we have real results. And now extrapolate that to 36 million.

You cannot just pick numbers and extrapolate.
Sorry does not cut the mustard until I see the real numbers in Canada.
I am sick and tired of people picking numbers and say look see I am right
Brown Sugar.
As far as I am concerned this entire pandemic was handled incorrectly in the beginning, and then opps the model did not work, let’s fix it with another model.
It’s a big guess and everyone points fingers and say look at Italy look at Spain. Oh China lied. It could happen here!

But bottom line you cannot say with 100 percent accuracy anything. Was it bats, was it a lab was it because the US moved it’s lab to China. Was it an American solder. Maybe it was the moon rocks they brought back, maybe Trump did not wash his hands.
Yep your guess is just a guess.
we really don’t know the answer and that’s why we are so angry we just don’t know. Media has fed so many false stories we don’t know the real truth any more!
Say whatever you want we will never know for
100 percent certainly shutting down the economy was the best outcome.
Here’s what you are going to do copy this post and in two years Ask when we count the unemployed or ask small business that went bankrupt ask people whose taxes are sky high ask 750,000 Canadians who missed mortgage or 1 million who missed rent payments and so on and so forth
Then ask was it all worth it?

The question that needs to be answered is how many would have died if we did not shut down the economy and the only example is Sweden
But more importantly how many died who were not in retirement homes and that’s a more accurate number.
And that’s the way it is on Sunday May 17, 2020

#73 Jeff Olberg on 05.17.20 at 4:59 pm

Why are comments from Alt-Right groups and figures rife in your last post? Talking ill of our First Nations people while they were murdered in cold blood for their land is highly disrespectful.

What groups and figures? – Garth

#74 neo on 05.17.20 at 5:03 pm

#57 Dolce Vita on 05.17.20 at 3:48 pm
Pandemic porn calcs follow using data out today that shows it could have been a lot worse and that the lockdown was a good idea (i.e., why herd immunity was a bad idea).

70,000 serological test complete by Spain. They found 5% of the population had lgG antibodies, the type produced with a C-19 infection. Dr. John Campbell discussed at length in his YouTube video today.

Using that data you can compute how many deaths there would have been without a lockdown had we just let people get infected to the magical 70% herd immunity number.

Spain
47 million people, 27562 deaths. 230698 cases. 5% lgG.

47MMx0.05=2.35MM infected.
27,563/2.35MM=1.17% fatality rate.
70% min. for herd immunity; thus, 47MMx0.7×0.0117=

384,930 would have died to get herd immunity.
Infected/Cases Multiplier 2.35/0.2307 = 10.2X

——————-

America
328 million people, 89207 deaths, 1,478,241 cases. Assume 5% lgG.

328MMx0.05=16.4MM infected.
89207/16.4MM=0.00544 or 0.544% fatality rate
70% min. for herd immunity=328MMx0.7=229.6MMx0.00544=

1,249,024 would have died to get herd immunity.
Infected/Cases Multiplier 16.4/1.478 = 11.1X (recall Fauci figures 110K deaths regardless)

——————-

Drum roll, CANADA
37.6 million people, 5882 deaths, 78,072 cases. Assume 5% lgG.

37.6MMx0.05=1.88MM infected.
5882/1.88MM=0.00313 or 0.313% fatality rate
70% min. for herd immunity=37.6MMx0.7=26.32MMx0.00313=

82,348 would have died to get herd immunity (Maple Ridge or Peterborough “gone, gone”).
Infected/Cases Multiplier 1.88/0.078072 = 24.1X (only in Canada)

——————-

The 5% lgG corroborated by other much smaller European studies. Italia in the process of doing a 500,000 nationwide serological test.

So ya, lockdown not fun especially to those that lost jobs, wealth etc. but it could have been MUCH MUCH worse in terms of deaths had we done nothing and let herd immunity without a vaccine do its thing.

DEEP, DEEP down…people’s initial gut feel was correct to be AFRAID. Remember the above fatality rates were under lockdown, probably higher had there been no lockdown (i.e., the above herd calcs are conservative, minimum death estimates).
********************************************

I don’t think so bud.

82,348 Canadians? So basically 65,878 in LTC and retirement homes and 16,469 in the rest of the population. All that tells me is the lockdown under this scenario and in the current one should have been LTC. You see that’s who gets quarantined historically. High risk people or infected people in society not locking down 10’s of millions of healthy people.

#75 NFN_NLN on 05.17.20 at 5:04 pm

#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.17.20 at 1:32 pm
As the survey shows, the risk is very real and in our minds.

The risk is real? About 2.63% even got “it”, which may not even be COVID-19 it could have been any flu like illness.

Of those a fraction of a percent die.

Of those a fraction of a fraction of a percent aren’t elderly people.

I suppose if you’re 80 years old this is very real to you. If so, stay inside, but for everyone else it is a non-issue.

#76 moose on 05.17.20 at 5:06 pm

TurnerNation…for the love of God put down the crack pipe

#77 Sold Out on 05.17.20 at 5:06 pm

#63 Faron on 05.17.20 at 4:15 pm

Is that a polling question. Yes. Agnostic? Efff no. It’s clear from your posts and your die hard readers/commenters that you (Garth) are biased toward seeing the virus response as mishandled at best or a dire global overreaction at worst. That comes across in your questions and it was what Abby was picking up on. The result is people will then bias their answers to counter the pollster’s bias or to align with it. It doesn’t suit you or your seemingly intelligent readership to play dumb like this.

Questions were simple and clear. If you don’t like the answers, find another blog. Maybe you could do that anyway. Thanks. – Garth

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

My personal barometer measuring the actual danger from this coronavirus is the “Trump Rally Resumption Index”.

If there was truly little danger posed by this virus, wouldn’t the most needy malignant narcissist in the world be holding his love-ins on schedule? He’s opening up the economy, and calling the shutdown a Democratic hoax.

Why is he spending the weekend hiding in Camp David and ordering everyone around him to mask up like there’s a dangerous bug going around?

Maybe it’s time for a Qanonyholics Anonymous intervention.

#78 NFN_NLN on 05.17.20 at 5:07 pm

#69 Doug t on 05.17.20 at 4:32 pm
Debt don’t matter no more dudes – Debt Jubilee in the future, Universal Income on its way – why stress? Why try? Why bother?

“Why stress? Why try? Why bother?” – it’s the new communist slogan. I like it.

#79 Camille on 05.17.20 at 5:10 pm

NYT writes China air travel at 60% pre virus level. Think about that.
Invest like there is no tommorow!

#80 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.17.20 at 5:11 pm

#68 BoDiddley on 05.17.20 at 4:32 pm
I’m still not entirely sure this whole nightmare is really about a virus, or in the end it proves to be an economic reset of global proportions.
We shall see….
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yep, that’s what I said right from the start. That’s all it ever was, and ‘they’ handled it masterfully; no one went hungry, the shelves were kept stocked, businesses were put on hiatus instead of collapsing, etc etc. Very well played. People who are complaining should realize that if the economic collapse & reset had not been handled they way they were it would have been a disaster.

#81 Faron on 05.17.20 at 5:11 pm

Questions were simple and clear. If you don’t like the answers, find another blog. Maybe you could do that anyway. Thanks. – Garth

It’s your blog, you can ban me or delete my posts. I come here because it gets me out of my media bubble and by playing the opposition, maybe it helps y’all get out of yours.

#82 Trojan House on 05.17.20 at 5:12 pm

He he, Garth said “parsimonious.”

Also, Garth, can you ban that Stay Away Cottage person? Or at least delete their posts? I come to the blog to read the advice of course and engage in serious debate with the other blog dogs. This person is just bringing it down for everyone else.

#83 joblo on 05.17.20 at 5:18 pm

Crappy Tire, Marks, Sportchek can stick.

Needed a key cut, Crappy tire, “they took the key cutting machine away. Try a locksmith”.

Marks, “sanitize your hands, and you won’t be allowed to try anything on”
Not even shoes? “No”.
Why r u open?

Sportchek “line up please out the door on the markers”
20 in line forget it.

Retail is doomed in Chinada.

#84 Ronaldo on 05.17.20 at 5:20 pm

#40 Howard on 05.17.20 at 3:10 pm
Did the government even attempt to rationalize the GIS bonus money, beyond blatant vote buying?

I don’t quite see how lower income seniors, who were presumably out of the labour market pre-COVID (you can’t get GIS if you’re working, right?) would be impacted by this crisis. For them it’s status quo aside from the inconveniences felt by all.
—————————————————————
Persons on GIS can earn up to $5000 from employment income without affecting their GIS plus 50% exemption on the next $10000. It’s all here, check it out:

https://www.taxtips.ca/seniors/gis.htm

#85 Dirty Dan on 05.17.20 at 5:22 pm

DELETED

#86 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.17.20 at 5:25 pm

#1 Captain Uppa on 05.17.20 at 1:13 pm sez:
“139 people voted that their family relative passed away from Covid 19.

My sincerest condolences.”
—————————————
Condolences? Why, because they lied?

#87 Ustabe on 05.17.20 at 5:26 pm

#72 Jeff Olberg on 05.17.20 at 4:59 pm

Why are comments from Alt-Right groups and figures rife in your last post? Talking ill of our First Nations people while they were murdered in cold blood for their land is highly disrespectful.

What groups and figures? – Garth

Maybe Jeff, with more than a little hyperbole, is wondering about posts you allow like
#99 Larissa Lowborne on 05.16.20 at 9:58 pm

Although what that person posted doesn’t rile me, it is full of dog whistle and to my way of thinking a non Canadian manner of approaching the issue.

What pisses you off versus what you allow to be published is slowly becoming clearer every day.

And to Jeff…we did very little of the murdering part up here, mostly did the finagling stuff. Recall Sitting Bull running to the safety of our Cypress Hills and the beneficial treatment he and the Sioux received in Canada.

That comment has been deleted. I endeavour to review every comment and adhere to the spirit of free speech, but keep the whackos under control. It usually works. Not always. – Garth

#88 Gulf Breeze on 05.17.20 at 5:26 pm

Nearly all deaths from Covid happened during lockdown conditions. That doesn’t tell us what would have happened if preventative action hadn’t been taken.

Anyone minimizing the impact of the virus (or maximizing it, for that matter) fails to understand we can’t have a clear idea of how dangerous the virus is until and if we return to a normal way of life.

#89 Ronaldo on 05.17.20 at 5:43 pm

This is not the first time that people have had the crap scared out of them. The older boomers like myself will remember those days very well. So will Garth. Some similarities as you will note as the lockdown scenario played out. Almost scarily similar as you will see. It may be that these experiences is the reason a few of us have become immune to this current scare.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTBP65IbxKo

#90 Lost...but not leasede on 05.17.20 at 5:43 pm

Epstein buddy…

You have NO right NOT to take a vaccine…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=436&v=XYpn2RWA-lE&feature=emb_title

#91 Lost...but not leased on 05.17.20 at 5:44 pm

Epstein buddy…

You have NO right NOT to take a vaccine…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=436&v=XYpn2RWA-lE&feature=emb_title

#92 And I might add ... on 05.17.20 at 5:45 pm

#49 Sail Away on 05.17.20 at 3:22 pm

#17 DrC on 05.17.20 at 2:06 pm

Dear Garth and readers of this blog. Need your advice. I’m using Questrade’s Questwealth Portfolios, where my money are automatically invested and the portfolio is reblanaced. I chose the Maximum Risk portfolio recently which returned me all my loses I had before with the balanced portfolio. Now I wonder, should I keep the Maximum Risk portfolio or move to a more conservative Balanced, or even Low Risk portfolio? From one side the economy reopens little by little, from another, the virus is still here and the unenployment numbers are scaring the crap out of me…

—————-

Let me try my hand at wealth advising:

It depends
—————-
It’s very hard to say …

#93 Lost...but not leased on 05.17.20 at 5:46 pm

Dolce Vita….

This ones for you..(Sara Cunial is awesome !!!)

https://www.bitchute.com/video/8eycEVBKKjmr/?list=subscriptions

#94 NFN_NLN on 05.17.20 at 5:54 pm

#80 Faron on 05.17.20 at 5:11 pm

I come here because it gets me out of my media bubble and by playing the opposition, maybe it helps y’all get out of yours.

Buddy, it’s a nice day. Why don’t you get out of your house instead.

#95 Grey Dog on 05.17.20 at 5:58 pm

To 7 Reclaim Your Mind…you need to be nominated for Darwin Award!
Our politicians are all following SCIENTISTS ADVICE…
our numbers are a a lot more accurate than the States. Or do you believe like tRump numbers and contact tracing aren’t important.
P.S. How is your Javex supply? I hear it disinfects in minutes.

#96 Tim123 on 05.17.20 at 6:00 pm

I guess if people are wondering why the lenders are doing this, it is because a deep recession is here. I can’t see a recovery in the economy
until after an effective vaccine is found in 12 to 18 months at the earliest . In the meantime, assets like real estate will depreciate severely in value. The higher the unemployment rate in the region the bigger the drop in housing prices. People are scared and so are businesses so spending is going to be down.

#97 MF on 05.17.20 at 6:09 pm

#18 crossbordershopper on 05.17.20 at 2:19 pm

Your argument that Canada’s debt is a problem and that you should move to Florida (lol) to escape makes no sense when you realize the 24ish trillion dollars of debt that exists in your utopia down south.

MF

#98 Ronaldo on 05.17.20 at 6:10 pm

#41 Gloria on 05.17.20 at 3:10 pm
I remember in the 80s when people had to walk away from thier homes because they owed more then they were worth. Banks would not renew mortgages. I can see that coming around
——————————————————————
Yes Gloria, I recall those days like it was yesterday. I was in process of building my dream home the spring of 79 and luckily had locked in my mortgage at close to 10%. By the time I got the completion certificate that summer interest rates had already risen a couple % and by fall were up to 14%. Over the next couple years rates would reach around 23% before starting to decline. Thanks to Mr. Volcker:

“Paul Adolph Volcker Jr. was an American economist. He was Chairman of the Federal Reserve under U.S. presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan from August 1979 to August 1987. He is widely credited with having ended the high levels of inflation seen in the United States during the 1970s and early 1980”.

By the time my mortage came up for renewal four years later, interest rates were still at around 14%.

House prices took a major hit and especially rural properties. An acreage that I had purchased for 12,000 in 1975 and which had risen in price to 45000 dropped back to it’s original purchase price and stayed there for many years. I ended up selling it for 15000 in 89 after having held it for 14 years. No money made on that one.

Today we have a situation opposite with lowest rates in history and highest prices in history. The worst is yet to come. Hang on for dear life as the roller coaster is nearing the top.

#99 EE on 05.17.20 at 6:14 pm

Garth,

Interesting survey results. The fear level matches my anecdotal observations.

If your data allows it, please advise on the percentage of people who answered Yes to Questions 1 or 2 and Yes to Question 6. This is the subset of your respondents who came eyeball to eyeball with the virus and do not fear it.

#100 TurnerNation on 05.17.20 at 6:15 pm

#38 BrianT I had no idea there really were online fireworks – as I do not actively follow the news. Good stuff gets posted here on all the important bits anyway. And links sent to me by friends or linked from other sites.
I’m actually holding back about half the info and always will do so. Many reasons.
In then end as you noted it’s happening – and fast.

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.20 at 6:16 pm

@#81 Trojan Man
“This person is just bringing it down for everyone else.”
+++
Not at all.
Cottage dude is mildly amusing….and if they are serious….majorly paranoid and amusing.
Either way.
If you dont like it. Scroll past or…..rent a cottage for the weekend….. and then post a blog count of all the country strangers you believe you may have touched with your city hands…….
I avoid the countryside for the simple reason , they are bereft of elevators……no fun in that.

#102 MF on 05.17.20 at 6:17 pm

My take on this whole mortgage deferral thing is simple: it should only apply to your principle residence. Period.

If someone leveraged up with multiple properties, took on too much debt, and ignored any risks than that was their mistake. We’ve had years of “warnings” from the Bank of Canada, CMHC, various banks, lenders, industry watchers and so on about risks to the real estate industry.

If someone ignored those warnings, and arrogantly assumed the bubble in the GTA would continue indefinitely because they listened to the industry and were told GTA real estate is risk free than that’s also their fault.

MF

If tenants stop paying rent, how is that the owner’s fault? – Garth

#103 Toronto_CA on 05.17.20 at 6:17 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fayeKcjnDNE

An interesting BBC interview from today with former Supreme Court Justice Lord Sumption, who has a lot to say about the lockdowns.

He’s a very vocal critic of them, and favours protecting the vulnerable while letting the general public choose their own risks as we have always done.

#104 Grey Dog on 05.17.20 at 6:24 pm

Crowdedelevatorfart

Yes, I got Covid nose swab tested March 4, came back from the Middle East with a cough that I had for the last couple of months, didn’t go to family doctor as he doesn’t believe in antibiotics etc, I thought warm weather would clear it up, luckily just a cough that prednisone and steroid inhaler finally cleared up.

BTW when I landed in YYZ, I called family doctor and immediately got escalated to Public Health who called me when there was a spot available in negative pressure room in local GTA hospital. Felt great, but cough was severe.

Meanwhile 3 day waiting for results, Public health person assigned to me became my best friend, calling several times over the weekend, so interested in my trip, my flight, taxi driver home etc.

Also spent my time in isolation at home using separate bedrooms and bathrooms from spouse. Instructions while waiting for results “DO NOT LEAVE HOME, if you must go outside, I could sit on my back step”. “DO NOT TOUCH THE DOG.“

#105 MF on 05.17.20 at 6:33 pm

#54 Ed McNeil on 05.17.20 at 3:42 pm

I agree fully.

Keep in mind, there some posters who will always post the same thing, just in different words. Garth’s post content doesn’t usually matter to them. One of them -whose name I won’t mention- always posts the same thing just in different order:

Socialism, public servant pensions, family court.

The next day it’s:

Public servant pensions, family court, socialism.

Then we get:

Family court, socialism, public servant pensions.

And so on.

MF

#106 sailedaway on 05.17.20 at 6:36 pm

#53 Linda on 05.17.20 at 3:40 pm

A brat from Ottawa has just stolen my spare change jar

#107 drydock on 05.17.20 at 6:38 pm

#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.17.20 at 1:32 pm

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Loathsome little worm.

#108 sailedaway on 05.17.20 at 6:40 pm

#47 Sail Away on 05.17.20 at 3:17 pm

“Oh, I am happily accepting the hundreds of thousands in stimulus and have no problem submitting an annual report that says, ‘Nothing’.”

Aren’t you sharp as a tack?
Nah “Buddy” You’ re Just another commie waiting for his handout.

If you need ‘stimulus’ you shouldn’t be in business in the first place. Or maybe just a blue pill might do the trick?

#109 MF on 05.17.20 at 6:40 pm

If tenants stop paying rent, how is that the owner’s fault? – Garth

I don’t think it is their fault at all. It’s just one of the risks of being a landlord. Nobody knows the future. If a tenant can’t pay, then maybe drop the rent or come up with some other negotiated agreement.

The other day Doug Ford was asked by a media member about landlords and tenants and this issue. His response was to have tenants ask their landlord to “have a heart”. I thought that was kind of funny, but also has an ounce of truth to it.

MF

#110 DrC on 05.17.20 at 6:44 pm

#48 TrendIsYourFriend
#49 Sail Away
#61 Faron
#86 And I might add

Thanks for your replies. I appreciate it!
About the amount of transactions… From what I see in the account activity, after I’ve changed the risk this is what they bought (Qtip – quantity)
DGRC.TO – 251, REET – 32, XFH.TO – 250, SPEM – 29, SPTM – 128, IJR – 37, IJH – 9, SCZ – 63, XRE.TO – 31, XSP.TO – 183, RWR – 8, RWX – 27, SPYG – 31, SPYV – 42, EMCG – 30.

#111 Grey Dog on 05.17.20 at 6:51 pm

To 5 cottagersSTHAWAY
Aren’t they paying ALOT of taxes for your benefit? How about if two drivers come up to cottage with nuclear family NOT extended, NO Friends? That way if one comes down with not feeling well, entire car scoots home for followup? What if they bring their own supplies?

Mind you, I’ll be honest, you are singing my sediments about Canada opening the border to Nonessential Americans!!! But then does that include Americans owning cottages?

Garth, can this question be put in your next poll please? Along with question about the next time we as individuals are thinking of heading down to the great USofA? (Soon after borders open? Or in a year or so based on Covid waves?). Thanks,

#112 Kato on 05.17.20 at 6:52 pm

So, of the 510 polled who said a family member or relative had been infected by COVID-19;

507 say that person recovered.
139 say that person died.

So 126.7% of people infected either died or recovered. Scary stuff.

#113 Mr Canada on 05.17.20 at 6:57 pm

6,000+ responses, 160 report they got Covid — 2%? likely skewed due to age bracket responses. For this ?

#114 akashic record on 05.17.20 at 7:03 pm

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.20 at 1:37 pm

I was asked by my accountant to consider it and after reading through the endless pc drivel I noticed a small paragraph at the end saying…. “If you accept the funding your company is now obligated to provide an ANNUAL REPORT on how you are reducing your environmental footprint in conjunction with the Liberals Climate Action Plan….”

That was just one of the small print pork obligations.

#115 Reality is stark on 05.17.20 at 7:05 pm

Once again everyone forgets the elephant in the room, bankruptcy.
A lot of people will be declaring personal bankruptcy.
Deferring their mortgage buys them time and costs YOU money in future taxes.
When you paid $1,000,000 for a house that is now only worth $800,000 and you have a HELOC and credit card debts with no job on the horizon, guess what?
CMHC will end up with a house they don’t want.
You really think the owner who is getting CERB cares about deferring 6 months of mortgage or adding to the credit card debt?
Not too bloody likely.
From a moral perspective the homeowner will be critical of the government for not making the CERB permanent until they are ready to file for GIS.
In other words as a victim they are not responsible for their situation but you are morally reprehensible if UBI is not available to them when they are ready for it.
We have a dice roll economy. People expect to use the appreciating house to finance a lifestyle they can’t afford. The sad reality unbeknownst to you is that often times a spouse pushes you into the decision to buy to force you to borrow against the asset later to finance their lifestyle.
This is the typical Canadian of today. Why should the bank trust them?
Bottom line is that the CMHC is going to take an enormous hit. You can bet the leadership at CMHC would love to see the government bail out all underwater homeowners by doubling their CERB until they get another job. Of course under those circumstances the homeowner will have no incentive to get another job.
The circus that is Canada continues on it’s merry way to insanity.
Remember you are the evil Canadian because your job is to pay for the excessive risk that they take. It is your responsibility to make up any losses by paying excessive future taxes.
You will ultimately pay for all those deferrals.

#116 sailedaway on 05.17.20 at 7:06 pm

#38 RoddyJohn on 05.17.20 at 3:04 pm

Make sure you hurry back from Florida to access our World Class Healthcare. We will maintain our road conditions for your arrival…..

—————————————————————-

World class healthcare, only if you’ve never seen anything else in your life… Roads: Are. You. Kidding. Me?

Florida: better weather, lower taxes, lower property prices, as much crime as in Toronto or the GTA, and ‘Florida man’ could take stupidity lessons from “Ontario” man anytime.

#117 Cdn Mom on 05.17.20 at 7:18 pm

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.20 at 1:47 pm

Canadian govt says over 1 million people have been tested….
EVERYONE I have asked doesnt know ANYONE that has been tested….
So, would I be wrong in assuming 200,000 doctors , nurses, hospital workers and patients with flu-like symptoms have been tested several times each? …..and no one else?
……………..

Here in northern Ontario, both my brother and I were tested, as well as my father (symptom free) in his nursing home. I on April 6, brother on April 16, father a week and a half ago. I was at least 10 days in, likely closer to 2 weeks, brother was likely further along. We both tested negative, despite having the same lung symptoms, but not much else going on. My nurse practitioner told me they knew there was already community spread at that time. I would have been infected in March, after lockdown, from a grocery store or pharmacy, brother likely at work or airport (3 each trip).

Trust me, my brother and I had it. His wife became ill as well. He flies to and from the oil patch several times a month, and his workplace was in the news for infection. My husband showed no symptoms during, or after, my illness.

Interestingly, my city of about 80,000 has only 16 confirmed cases. Three nursing home residents in one home, one hospital worker, and four community transmission… the rest early travel related. The community transmission cases are strung out time-wise, so they are missing a lot of cases here. Our hospital hasn’t had a single case admitted, or confirmed. They were testing too late here all around.

At the beginning of March, my father’s nursing home was closed down to visitors, due to a respiratory outbreak. Not unusual in any year. However, there was a significant bump of elderly in obits around that time, and two younger kidney patients in the obits in the same week. I suspect it was already here when we went into lockdown, and it slowed the spread, but is still with us.

#118 Linda on 05.17.20 at 7:18 pm

#106 ‘Sailed’ – so much for being part of the 10 percent:)

#119 Ballingsford on 05.17.20 at 7:20 pm

Garth, too many millenials posting here these days.

They have no clue!

And then life starts!

#120 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 05.17.20 at 7:22 pm

The best possible decision a dog could ever make – ThinkPad!

#121 Paul on 05.17.20 at 7:27 pm

Some appraisers are not going into the property ,do a walk around and go by interior photos. Just received an email the appraiser wanted photos of the furnace,hot water tank and electrical panel I could have sent photos of any mechanical system. The beat goes on,

#122 NoOneOfConsequence on 05.17.20 at 7:30 pm

Garth…today I finally really appreciated at how draining it must be to read the comments day in, day out, day in, day out, day out. Yikes. Thank you for your commitment.

Some people’s world view is beyond belief.

Judging from the paranoia, there must be a few who smoke waaaaayyyyy to much weed.

#123 Cdn Mom on 05.17.20 at 7:38 pm

#53 Player24 on 05.17.20 at 3:30 pm
I don’t have answers but the government has totally succeeded in scaring the crap out of people. Well done. You have only destroyed the economy and brought about a wave of mental health problems. The cure is worse than the virus.
………….

Agreed. 1968-1970 Hong Kong flu pandemic. Estimated 1 million to 4 million deaths worldwide (C-19 at 316,000 right now). During that time, no lockdown, little news, Woodstock happened (as pointed out by NY Post), and I started school for the first time. Go figure.

#124 John in Mtl on 05.17.20 at 7:45 pm

DELETED

#125 Stone on 05.17.20 at 7:50 pm

#119 Ballingsford on 05.17.20 at 7:20 pm
Garth, too many millenials posting here these days.

They have no clue!

And then life starts!

———

One too many Ballingsford‘s posting here these days.

Completely clueless.

And then…still completely clueless!

Good! The balance within the continuum has been realigned. Phew! That was close.

And by the way, it’s millennials, not millenials. So clueless.

#126 Nonplused on 05.17.20 at 7:54 pm

Of course, and not mentioned by Garth in this otherwise fine post, is that similar karma is coming to KeepYourRent and his or her followers. If you actually can’t pay your rent work out a solution with your landlord. If you say F-You! to your landlord for no good reason expect to be a damaged good that nobody will rent to once normalcy returns to the world. Look, KeepYourRent folks, eventually the evictions will start up again and this time nobody will touch you without a reference from your previous landlord. If the government is too slow restarting evictions the Hell’s Angels will go into the business and I am sure that will be worse if you don’t comply. Muscle is always available for appropriate compensation. Remember, selling drugs and prostitution are but two of the biker gangs many lines of business. They are opportunists. Many of their businesses are somewhat legit. Certainly making life really miserably for somebody 4 months behind on their rent is something they can handle. “Dirty deeds, done dirt cheap” – ACDC.

If you don’t pay your rent but you could with the newfound CERB you are thinking really short term. Even biker gangs pay their rent. And they can do things governments might not be able to if the price is right. That is their business.

So if you KeepYourRent watch out for loud motorcycles. They will be the new “black helicopters”.

#127 YouKnowWho on 05.17.20 at 8:01 pm

Anyone watch 60 minutes today?

That dude in the last segment is right. We need to take a different path. Putting economic growth as the #1 priority will be a wasted opportunity. Insanity. We’ll be doing the same thing expecting a different outcome.

We need to flatten the carbon curve, as he put it. We need to prioritize things differently.

#128 [email protected] on 05.17.20 at 8:02 pm

@ #32 TurnerNation on 05.17.20 at 2:57 pm

Quebec arleady open boldel legion except one alea; you too rate Comlade! You fired.

#129 Ustabe on 05.17.20 at 8:02 pm

I want to talk about something else now. Take a break, so to speak.

Like lets talk about Mr. Scheer…has dropped his application to vacate his US citizenship yet will remain and run again as MP for Qu’Appelle,…

Or, how about this. COVID-19 stands for Certificate Of Vaccination ID. I’m beginning to come around as I read more of this insightful stuff!

Oops, just when you think you are out, it pulls you back in again! sorry.

#130 GrumpyPanda on 05.17.20 at 8:03 pm

I have a solution to the long term care home problem. All those blog dogs who are certain there is nothing to worry about please volunteer to work 100 hours at a nearby facility. You have been dying to get out of the house anyway.

#131 Ronaldo on 05.17.20 at 8:04 pm

#123 Cdn Mom on 05.17.20 at 7:38 pm
#53 Player24 on 05.17.20 at 3:30 pm
I don’t have answers but the government has totally succeeded in scaring the crap out of people. Well done. You have only destroyed the economy and brought about a wave of mental health problems. The cure is worse than the virus.
………….

Agreed. 1968-1970 Hong Kong flu pandemic. Estimated 1 million to 4 million deaths worldwide (C-19 at 316,000 right now). During that time, no lockdown, little news, Woodstock happened (as pointed out by NY Post), and I started school for the first time. Go figure.
—————————————————————-
I was 22 that year and I don’t remember it. Was working in downtown Vancouver at the time. Go figure.

#132 Bobby Bittman on 05.17.20 at 8:08 pm

Mrs Bittman’s hair salon just called. They are opening for business on Thursday if she wants to book an appointment. They also mentioned they are raising their prices by 10%.

#133 not 1st on 05.17.20 at 8:12 pm

If you deferred, did you have a valid financial reason? Did you give an honest explanation? If not, you might have a surprise waiting when you come to renew.
—–

How about being scared to death by the hysterical MSM and incompetence of our elected officials?

That should be as good an answer as we get from our PM at the steps of his cottage now in hiding for 60 days.

#134 not 1st on 05.17.20 at 8:16 pm

#97 MF on 05.17.20 at 6:09 pm
—-

You are about to see what the difference in debt is between Canada and the US when one has the reserve currency and million of people all over the world wanting to hold their debt.

Canada eh? Not so much. Only the BoC is interested in holding our bonds.

#135 Sail Away on 05.17.20 at 8:18 pm

#108 sailedaway on 05.17.20 at 6:40 pm
#47 Sail Away on 05.17.20 at 3:17 pm

Oh, I am happily accepting the hundreds of thousands in stimulus and have no problem submitting an annual report that says, ‘Nothing’.

——————-

Aren’t you sharp as a tack?
Nah “Buddy” You’ re Just another commie waiting for his handout.

If you need ‘stimulus’ you shouldn’t be in business in the first place. Or maybe just a blue pill might do the trick?

——————-

Oh, I’m the problem here? Haha.

I use the wage subsidy to keep people employed that I’d otherwise let go… which is, I believe, the point of it, no?

I don’t need the stimulus at all. 30% of my staff are fairly happy it’s there, though.

#136 Entrepreneur on 05.17.20 at 8:23 pm

I am a little suspicious of this low-pandemic coronavirus with scanty data and numbers the health leaders give us. Sure, it spreads like wildfire but where is the science and data of this spread to shut down our economy?

Why not carry on like Sweden? Taiwan?

Another problem is that T2 stands behind them, shuts down the economy, gives out loans (business loans for banks), calm as can be.

A bank seems to have been the irresponsible lender (nationally, globally). That is not how a business operates.

We were in a pickle before, the banks kept on lending, the rates stayed lowed, real estate went up. But the only thing I can see is that the scientist say only ten years left. Now that changes everything, the globalist want to live and how to stop from further damage.

With a wildfire virus that is hitting mostly LTC, my theory.

Wondering about those kids, sickness like coronavirus, as to why as it is as it is mostly linked to weak immune system. Caused my second-hand smoke, they smoke, something is causing their weakness. Is the strain the stronger one? Remember two strains were reported at the beginning.

The news spreads the fear, for sure, and their lack of further information adds to it.

One would think after the SARS and other coronaviruses that preparation would have been in place. Right now, running around, lost.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.20 at 8:30 pm

@#117 Cdn Mom
“Trust me, my brother and I had it…”
++++

I totally agree.
Our shop had a weird flu going around in Dec and again in Jan-Feb. Mild sore throat one day. Gone the next. Sneezes one day, gone the next. Temps one day, gone the next.

I’m thinking this flu is wa-a-a-y more wide spread than the govt wants to admit OR they are not testing so they dont have to admit HOW wide spread ( and statistically non lethal) it is.

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.20 at 8:31 pm

@#107 drydock
“Loathsome little worm.”
++++

I find “maggot” gets the point across faster but I do like your style.

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.17.20 at 8:34 pm

@#125 Stone.
“And by the way, it’s millennials, not millenials. So clueless.”

++++
Just curious.
Would you know how to spell Millennial without spellcheck turned on?

#140 Harrison Bergeron on 05.17.20 at 8:37 pm

Imagine ‘Fly me to the Moon’ plays in the background by ‘Miumiu Guitargirl’ as the young couples apply for their mortgages….

#141 John in Mtl on 05.17.20 at 8:45 pm

#124 John in Mtl on 05.17.20 at 7:45 pm

DELETED

Sorry Garth, was a (bad?) joke.

#142 AACI Homedog on 05.17.20 at 8:49 pm

Wow…values, not sales volume, down 12% in one month ? Epic…

#143 Paul on 05.17.20 at 8:51 pm

#109 MF on 05.17.20 at 6:40 pm
If tenants stop paying rent, how is that the owner’s fault? – Garth

I don’t think it is their fault at all. It’s just one of the risks of being a landlord. Nobody knows the future. If a tenant can’t pay, then maybe drop the rent or come up with some other negotiated agreement.

The other day Doug Ford was asked by a media member about landlords and tenants and this issue. His response was to have tenants ask their landlord to “have a heart”. I thought that was kind of funny, but also has an ounce of truth to it.

MF
————————————————————————————————
Or maybe do what banks do when you don’t pay your mortgage put you ass on the curb, or when you don’t pay your lease or car payment put you ass on the road! The Government has nationalized the the private rental properties saying who you can rent to, rent increases, the hoops to jump through to get rid of a BAD tenant and then say if you don’t pay no worries the only remedy the landlord had was their kangaroo court and it’s closed.

#144 not 1st on 05.17.20 at 9:10 pm

#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.17.20 at 1:32 pm
—-

Well Trudeau travelled to his cottage this weekend which is undergoing an $8m renovation courtesy of Canadian tax payers.

Why don’t you have a talk with him instead of watching CNN all day and becoming a paranoid schizoid.

Harrington Lake belongs to us, not the prime minister. – Garth

#145 MF on 05.17.20 at 9:16 pm

#143 Paul on 05.17.20 at 8:51

We’ve had 12 years of favourable policies to the benefit of landlords. Low interest rates are the best example, but now you have the BoC buying mortgage backed securities and doing QE. House prices are now so high that they are damaging the economy.

When people buy stocks they take on risk. When they buy rental properties it should be the same. No guarantees you’ll have great tenants. If that is too much for some people then they should stick to investing in something else, maybe reits if they want to feel like they own properties.

MF

#146 Reality is stark on 05.17.20 at 9:35 pm

Let me teach you a little bit about banking.
When you have an economy that is all and only about flipping houses you put satellite branches in communities close to the homeowners.
If you have a branch of 10 staff the only person of any value is the loan’s officer. Their job is to schmooze and sell, that’s it.
When the housing market turns you no longer need any of those branches. All the people are superfluous including the loan’s officer.
Now the accountants are the loan’s officers and they go strictly by the numbers. Their only job is to predict the odds of you declaring personal bankruptcy.
Welcome to banking in a roll the dice economy.
You may be surprised the next time you try to see a loan’s officer face to face so you can convince them you have integrity. You won’t get an appointment and they don’t care.

#147 John in Mtl on 05.17.20 at 9:37 pm

#69 BoDiddley on 05.17.20 at 4:32 pm

“…Meanwhile, without delving into conspiracy theories or wild assumptions, there is something more going on here than a mere pandemic or virus. I’m still not entirely sure this whole nightmare is really about a virus, or in the end it proves to be an economic reset of global proportions.”

Of course! “Never let a crisis go to waste” it is said; so this pandemic is a good excuse, a good cover, a good diversion for a whole bunch of things that were waiting in the wings for the “right” occasion to be put into motion.

#148 Lost...but not leased on 05.17.20 at 9:43 pm

#141 John in Mtl on 05.17.20 at 8:45 pm
#124 John in Mtl on 05.17.20 at 7:45 pm

DELETED

Sorry Garth, was a (bad?) joke.

=======================

Two COVID 19 were walking down the street and went into a bar…..

#149 MF on 05.17.20 at 9:46 pm

#134 not 1st on 05.17.20 at 8:16

We’ve gone through this before.

No reserve currency but intricately linked to the reserve currency economy directly to the south of us.

If they go down we go down. If they go up we go up. I would bet on the latter.

MF

#150 Trojan House on 05.17.20 at 9:47 pm

What would you do if you knew that by locking everything down you could save 100,000 lives this year. However because of that, you knew that 1 million people would die of related causes to the lock down over the next 5 years, would you lock down the economy now?

In other words, yes, you saved 100,000 lives by locking the economy down now but by doing so you caused the deaths of 200,000 people per year for the next 5 years after that.

Think about that for a moment. Is it really about saving lives?

https://www.justfacts.com/news_covid-19_anxiety_lockdowns_life_destroyed_saved

#151 John in Mtl on 05.17.20 at 9:51 pm

@ #89 Ronaldo on 05.17.20 at 5:43 pm

Ah yes, the ever present “A” and “H” bomb exercises, shelters, etc… I remember those well. Cuban missile crisis: “30 seconds to midnight”.

#152 Paul on 05.17.20 at 9:57 pm

#145 MF on 05.17.20 at 9:16 pm
#143 Paul on 05.17.20 at 8:51

We’ve had 12 years of favourable policies to the benefit of landlords. Low interest rates are the best example, but now you have the BoC buying mortgage backed securities and doing QE. House prices are now so high that they are damaging the economy.

When people buy stocks they take on risk. When they buy rental properties it should be the same. No guarantees you’ll have great tenants. If that is too much for some people then they should stick to investing in something else, maybe reits if they want to feel like they own properties.

MF
————————————————————————————————
It’s apparent you do not own rental properties.
If you buy a stock you know the risk and the rules. When the Government basically locks you out of your property even after your lease agreement runs out and allows a tenant to stay with no lease and no way for the owner to reclaim his property it’s theft .

#153 meslippery on 05.17.20 at 10:02 pm

#12 dogman01

When I was young and naive…..

I used to think you should live within your means, I had the fear, I was a job loss away from homelessness (or moving back in with my parents level of humiliation).

But what I have learned along the way is Moral Hazard.

Blockading critical infrastructures will be tolerated. Cheating on CERB (and countless other government services), will be tolerated as it is too much bother to go after you. Reporting illegal fire arms will not be acted upon (NS Rampage guy’s neighbor in 2013), Hiding money abroad in tax schemes under the auspices of big Accountant firms (KPMG and Isle of Man) Panama Papers et will be ignored.

Debt debt debt and stay with the herd, the herd will never be allowed to fall off the cliff, so no consequences.

Garth is old schools, I still am old school, but I am being taught there is protection in the lowest common denominator of the herd.
——————–
OR—- thing is really Rich or really poor. Dog help you if your middle class (Now obsolete) and WFH yeah your home over seas. I did not think about WFH and off shoring of it. Well offshoring is allowed by the powers that be thats why we dont make a lot of stuff that we should. And here we are cause of it.

#154 Lost...but not leased on 05.17.20 at 10:06 pm

Canadian communities and businesses to feel the pain of cruise cancellations

https://www.richmond-news.com/canadian-communities-and-businesses-to-feel-the-pain-of-cruise-cancellations-1.24136614

========================

Quite sad…..the delayed phase of the economic impact.

Many don’t realize how various parties have a very small window of opportunity and fiscal viability per annum.

#155 Ustabe on 05.17.20 at 10:09 pm

Its been pretty well settled that the vast majority of residential tenants are paying their rent. It is the commercial tenants who are not.

REITs reporting 90% compliance while the news is full of the Cheesecake Factory types, mall chain stores, etc not.

Which jibes with a conversation I had with a property manager locally who I just happened to run into a couple of weeks ago. She told me they were at 90% when they expect to be at 95%.

So can we please drop the concern for the landlords not getting the rent, its a fake right wing trope that those with limited cognitive skills hold onto.

#156 Ronaldo on 05.17.20 at 10:16 pm

Ben Shapiro on reopening the economy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mByP9Np-go

#157 baloney Sandwitch on 05.17.20 at 10:24 pm

Rosenberg is saying we are reverse-J depression. It will take us 5 years to get back to normal. He says it’s “crystal clear” that rescue package will be paid for not by labor but by capital, bringing higher tax rates on capital gains and corporate income. (I think the latter syncs with your thinking Garth, though you seem to be more in U shaped recovery and have changed from the V you were saying earlier).

#158 Canuck on 05.17.20 at 10:24 pm

Once again, Garth throws gas on the fire of fear. While I agree that banks are tightening up, they still need to do business. Recently pre-approved for a mortgage. New job for me in the last year with an average beacon. Spouse is self employed, receives a pension and has a high beacon.

21% being afraid of dying from COVID isn’t substantial. I thought it would be higher as I’m certain there are enough earth muffins on here that are cowering in their basements waiting for a vaccine. They might change their minds once T2 ends CERB.

For those who think it’s bright to defer mortgage payments and then invest that money for a tax break because someone at the bank told you it won’t affect your credit… I can tell you as someone who used to work at one of the big six and dealt with dealer finance lenders on a daily basis, it will most likely affect your credit. The person who told you that your credit won’t be affected, isn’t a lender. That’s important to Remember. Deferring payments for 30 days is no big deal. Anything longer… it will be noted on your bureau. Will this prevent you from renewing your mortgage, not likely with the same bank but when you want to finance an expensive car, a boat, RV, etc., you will be considered higher risk because when the going gets tough, you bailed. Banks don’t finance what you’re buying… They finance you. Never forget that.

#159 N on 05.17.20 at 10:32 pm

In a part of the interview that did not air, Powell said shrinkage of U.S. economic growth “could easily be in the 20s or 30s,” according to a CBS transcript.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/17/powell-says-jobless-rate-could-top-30percent-but-he-doesnt-see-another-depression.html

In Q2, on an annualized basis. Growth will take place in the second half of 2920, he added. – Garth

#160 Barb on 05.17.20 at 10:42 pm

I remember when HIV / Aids was first being diagnosed and reported. No-one knew whether it could be transmitted in the air, on items, doorknobs.

Let’s hope this virus will be relegated to the same bin. Not nearly as frightening as people had guessed.

#161 TrendIsYourFriend on 05.17.20 at 10:53 pm

#110 DrC
hahaha
yea, not surprising, mixed bag of stuff that could’ve been stuffed in half the number of names but… commissions, commissions
I never buy those low float etfs, Wisdomtree… but, personal preference.

Then, several baskets of Emerging markets, why not one? Commission.
Then several baskets of REITs.
Look at this – SPYG SPYV XSP.TO – most of companies in xsp are in spyg spyv I am guessing
Good ol’ Questrade

#162 Toni on 05.17.20 at 11:00 pm

TurnerNation, crowdedelevatorfartz, you are brave.
The mass mediatic hammer (in other word…) has done a very good job. Today, at the grocery store, I dropped my basket a little too early after the previous customer, the cashier assaulted me verbally bc he needed to sanitize the check out counter between 2 clients. What was stunning is the next couple of people who looked at me like I was a serial killer. Seriously? with carrots and bananas? So yes we are tricked and going to be deeply divided. That only took 2 little months. However, I recall stories from my family old folks about WWII in Europe, scared or heroes, adapting to tragic circumstances to survive, there were delations, collabos, but also resistants, fighters. Some will argue that it’s not comparable, wd say not yet, we will go through rough times but, hey, we have been around for a while now, not the first time we have been played, we will survive.

#163 Nonplused on 05.17.20 at 11:17 pm

#5 Karen on 05.17.20 at 1:32 pm

Just.

Stay.

Home.

———————

Not going to happen. Even campgrounds are looking to open mid to late June, although whether the washrooms will be open is not clear. But I imagine most cottages come with their own washroom. So take a chill pill, order some masks on Amazon, and don’t be a public nuisance. And maybe stop being a blog nuisance. It’s not going to change anything. Nobody is listening to you and you have no right to restrict people from accessing their own personal property, so long as they are using it withing the health guidelines.

Plus I am sure you have more than one neighbor who is heavily dependent on the cottagers for income, perhaps the cottagers account for all of their income. I think those neighbors would like to introduce you to a can of whoop-ass.

#164 Caleb on 05.17.20 at 11:20 pm

Wow you have quite the active class of reader. Amazing whenever these sort of polls are taken they defy statistical evidence. Was a fun poll but seeing results is making my head shake. Still I remain in disbelief. I like how Garth really wants to call out so much of this episode our government is having but is using much self control- good on you Garth, no sense angering the people who have made significant lifestyle investments/adjustments of late.

#165 Larry Laffer on 05.17.20 at 11:22 pm

“It ain’t just death” you know.

Many folks keep focusing on the apparently “low” death rate. Well, that’s low unless of course you’re unfortunate enough to be one of these “expendable” people: elders, diabetics, obese, smokers, asthmatic, patients with a weakened immune system, or just random unlucky dudes who happen to die from it for no apparent reason. But I digress, that’s just a small part of the story.

The other (bigger) part is: how can you manage your life and care for your loved ones when you’re sick beyond anything you’ve experienced before?

Covid-19 is not a flu. It is more contagious, more dangerous. It can clot your blood (stroke anyone?), attack your kidneys, your heart, your brain, your gut. It causes severe hypoxia – that means your organs are no longer fed enough oxygen to function normally. It takes longer to recover from it.

While most folks survive it, two sick parents still won’t be able to take care of their (also sick) young children (got four of them) while they are sleeping 20 hours a day for the next three weeks and collapsing on the floor from exhaustion anytime they try to move themselves. This is the scenario I fear the most, and based on the testimony of my friends unfortunate enough to catch it, it is far from unlikely.

Please keep social distancing for now, and proceed cautiously when reopening the economy. The faster the virus is contained, the stronger the economy can grow back thereafter. A quick re-opening would be most unwise.

#166 Nonplused on 05.17.20 at 11:33 pm

“The survey did not minimize the virus nor exaggerate it. A poll is a poll. It’s agnostic. – Garth”

I thought “agnostic” meant one did not have an opinion on whether or not there was a Dog in the sky, not a virus on the ground.

In any case I am going to be like my fellow believers and not let something I can’t see, hear, taste or touch dictate how I live my life.

#167 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.20 at 11:40 pm

#76 moose on 05.17.20 at 5:06 pm
TurnerNation…for the love of God put down the crack pipe
————
Second that

#168 BOYCOTT CHINESE PRODUCTS on 05.17.20 at 11:42 pm

Post-Pandemic, #Americans Souring On ‘Made In #China’

Some 41% of Americans say they will not buy Made in China products ever again, according to a survey by Deutsche Bank’s dbDig, the German bank’s big data platform.
Thumbs up

https://forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/05/15/post-pandemic-americans-souring-on-made-in-china/#669d66f02386
Show this thread

#169 Nonplused on 05.17.20 at 11:43 pm

#112 Kato on 05.17.20 at 6:52 pm
So, of the 510 polled who said a family member or relative had been infected by COVID-19;

507 say that person recovered.
139 say that person died.

So 126.7% of people infected either died or recovered. Scary stuff.

———————-

Remember, 50% of the population is below average IQ, and many of us have had a shot of Scotch by the time we get to Garth’s blog. This introduces some error into any poll.

#170 Slowly Boiling Frogs on 05.17.20 at 11:44 pm

Too many people on here are upset because the drama teacher insists on your climate change plan in exchange of some tax dollars.
Just tell him you’ve laid off a few employees and they’ll either go hungry and die. Carbon makers now neutralized. He should be thrilled.

#171 morrey on 05.17.20 at 11:45 pm

#6 TurnerNation

get some medical help ASAP. COVID-19 is the least of your worries.

#172 Moh on 05.18.20 at 2:26 am

If president Trump is running the place expect everything to go back to normal in no time. His belief is that we need ppl like business owners and ppl who work their tails off to make money and spend. It’s simple as that!

#173 Shallaam Mesizic on 05.18.20 at 3:18 am

BANNED

#174 jane24 on 05.18.20 at 3:46 am

I am one of those 139 that ticked under ‘did a member of your family die of covid 19’. My dear mother died in Brampton, Ontario in a wonderful nursing home last Tuesday BUT she was 88, obese and had advanced dementia, all high risk factors. The sadness was her manner of death, alone, no family there, body out within 3 hours, cremation within 24 hours, no funeral. Makes one wonder if she really is dead. There one minute and gone the next.

I then ticked that I am not afraid of getting it and not afraid of dying as I am low risk and life goes on. I refuse to bankrupt my country of Britain and I refuse to bankrupt my children and grandchildren’s generations. Life always has risks, I may be run over by that fabled truck tomorrow. This plague will be with us again, I suspect in the Fall. I sincerely hope that both the British and Canadian govts have more measured and appropriate responses for round two.

#175 Howard on 05.18.20 at 5:54 am

#155 BOYCOTT CHINESE PRODUCTS on 05.17.20 at 11:42 pm

An Amazon search parameter allowing users to filter out products according to location of manufacture would be massively popular.

#176 BillyBob on 05.18.20 at 6:54 am

#97 MF on 05.17.20 at 6:09 pm
#18 crossbordershopper on 05.17.20 at 2:19 pm

Your argument that Canada’s debt is a problem and that you should move to Florida (lol) to escape makes no sense when you realize the 24ish trillion dollars of debt that exists in your utopia down south.

MF

================================================

Once again the comparison of US debt to Canada’s. The US debt is backed by the world’s largest economy, the world’s most powerful military, and the world reserve currency.

Canadian debt is backed by…what, exactly? Platitudes and entitlements? CAD is going to get absolutely pounded. The country wasn’t exactly the most productive even PRE-Covid.

Anyway, I’ll let you get back to defending deadbeat tenants. Pretty sad indictment of your character, incidentally. It’s amazing how your bitterness at being shut out of the property market has warped your opinions.

#177 McSteve on 05.18.20 at 7:03 am

28 NewWest

I agree with every word you said. Governments are too disorganized to pull off any kind of meaningful conspiracy. I have no clue how armed idiots can walk freely around in any kind of society. The tinfoil hat club are looking for a boogeyman but they are looking in the wrong place. Governments, citizens and companies are living beyond their means and nobody has the guts to point it out for fear of pissing people off. So we kick the can down the road until something like this happens. What we need now is an honest conversation about we can realistically provide as a society.

#178 Do we have all the facts on 05.18.20 at 7:43 am

# 58 Sweet Life

You cannot be serious with those crazy extrapolations of deaths that would have occurred without the global lockdown.

Let me point out that in Canada a significant portion of the deaths that have been recorded since early March 2020 involved residents of long term care facilities, senior citizen homes, or nursing homes. Almost none of these elderly residents were world travellers and contacted the Corona 19 virus before their facility was locked down or through contact with another resident or staff after the their facility was locked down.

Deaths continued to occur in these facilities after they became isolated because once the Covid 19 virus was
inside a building it continued to spread and impact the vulnerable.

The world isolated the most vulnerable portion of their population far too late to avoid the impact of Covid 19 on the most vulnerable and this delay caused thousands of premature deaths. Death within the vulnerable population was tragic but mortality rates within this vulnerable population should never be used to extrapolate the impact of Covid 19 on a healthy population.

Using the impact of Covid 19 on an elderly population with a diminished natural immune system to project the total number of deaths that might have occurred without a global lockdown is well beyond antipathetic to the truth.

Once world leaders began to see the fiscal and emotional impact of the global lockdown they searched for evidence confirming that million of lives were saved by their actions.

The facts however clearly illustrate that mortality within healthy populations was extremely low before the global lockdown and that very large majority of all deaths attributed to Covid 19 involved vulnerable individuals who could have been protected at a fraction of the cost inflicted on the general population around the world after the global lockdown.

We should not allow vested interests to hide or distort the truth if we hope to avoid similar reactions to viral or bacterial infections in the future.

#179 Brett in Calgary on 05.18.20 at 8:01 am

51 Calgary retiree on 05.17.20

Obviously, following this blog causes COVID-19 infection…

=====
Ok that was funny! Thanks for that.

#180 Cathy Merkel on 05.18.20 at 8:29 am

BANNED. Over and over, the same twisted person. Go away. – Garth

#181 NSNG on 05.18.20 at 8:40 am

When are people going to wake up?

These bubbles always start and end with the banks.

The banks are not your friends!

Debt and banks are the PROBLEMS, not the solution

It’s as bad as sitting in a cage with a lion. Sooner or later you are going to be lunch

WAKE UP!

#182 NoName on 05.18.20 at 9:12 am

Interesting read.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/opinion/coronavirus-will-end-golden-age-college-towns

#183 NoName on 05.18.20 at 9:17 am

One more interesting read, word peasant was used, definitely read.

https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/neofeudalism-the-end-of-capitalism/

#184 David Hawke on 05.18.20 at 9:21 am

There is more truth than poetry in the posts by “Turner Nation” in the past couple of days IMO!

#185 not 1st on 05.18.20 at 9:25 am

Buffet fire saled airlines last month. Now he is dropping banks like GS and others.

Going to cash – strange behavior for a long term value investor. Obviously we are just in the first few innings of this thing.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/16/business/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-goldman-sachs/index.html

#186 TurnerNation on 05.18.20 at 9:26 am

Once again…watch your travel ability/rights. EVERY city, every mayor is on board with this, in the process of banning cars. Don’t take it from me, just watch.
I would expect its scope of road to grow.
We are to become 2nd world; bikes, rickshaws; scooters works great in -10c winters – or not, as in you will be confined to your home in the bitter cold.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/york-citys-open-streets-policy-permanent-fixture-experts/story?id=70616741

#187 TurnerNation on 05.18.20 at 9:34 am

#162 Toni I accept what’s going on, I don’t fight it.
Reality is stark as you noted.
Early on I had a cashier bark at me, young guy – I took that opportunity to tell him about Communism not so long ago, he took it all in, smart guy. The manager there had told me lots of staff refused work, scared. I then asked why no employees in the store then wore masks. The manager smiled, knowing I had them in my sights.
Most likely the CERB got to them.
Most people know the game and play along for optics- and to keep their job.

#188 TurnerNation on 05.18.20 at 9:38 am

#165 Larry Laffer here’s your daily reminder that the lock downs prevented not ONE death in old folks homes.
Not one. It’s all in your mind this illusion of safety.

#189 LP on 05.18.20 at 9:41 am

#180 Cathy Merkel on 05.18.20 at 8:29 am
BANNED. Over and over, the same twisted person. Go away. – Garth

Yeah, but it’s fun reading the names this person makes up.

#190 Kev on 05.18.20 at 9:57 am

What a fear monger you are. If they need the deferral they should ABSOLUTELY take it. Full stop, if you have a topic to write about, don’t make shit

The post quoted a mortgage broker, whose comments accurately reflect many that I hear from the industry. Folks deferring mortgage payments are being noticed by their lenders. Not in a good way. – Garth

#191 Headhunter on 05.18.20 at 10:19 am

Turnernation rocks… for those who have eyes to see let them see and those who have ears to hear let them hear.

#192 Will on 05.18.20 at 10:27 am

Hi Garth,

In future polls, especially about the virus, it might make sense to add a question about households with extra risk and a question segmenting the answers by age. My 2 cents.

W

#193 NoName on 05.18.20 at 10:44 am

i posted this twice before… Oh deferals…

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3-GPbCdsxkE/URCzK3MblhI/AAAAAAAAI9A/d1X0BEX_PjU/s1600/dilbert+credit+card.gif

#194 The future on 05.18.20 at 10:45 am

Never forget that.

#159 N on 05.17.20 at 10:32 pm
In a part of the interview that did not air, Powell said shrinkage of U.S. economic growth “could easily be in the 20s or 30s,” according to a CBS transcript.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/17/powell-says-jobless-rate-could-top-30percent-but-he-doesnt-see-another-depression.html

In Q2, on an annualized basis. Growth will take place in the second half of 2920, he added. – Garth
….

Not sure canuckastan will even make it by then!

#195 Dharma Bum on 05.18.20 at 10:46 am

My gun club is opening up effective May 33rd.

It’s an essential service.

And, bonus, none of my firearms are on the banned list.

The gun range will be open 7 days a week.

We are being asked to social distance accordingly.

#196 Dharma Bum on 05.18.20 at 10:47 am

That’s May 23rd.

#197 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.18.20 at 10:53 am

@#190 kev.
” If they need the deferral they should ABSOLUTELY take it.”

+++

And in one stroke of a pen they tell the banks they are either broke, unemployed, or greedy and stupid.
“Its so easy to defer those payments for 4 months, everyone should do it! Now where do I apply for CERB……?”

Excellent advice kev, can you be my financial advisor?.

#198 ONE-HIT WONDER on 05.18.20 at 10:54 am

The ENTIRE GLOBAL economy in a RECESSION!!

and the worst is yet to come.

Look at your history books and see where the markets ended up 1 to 2 years out after the shock of every crisis.

From 1929 to 2007 all shocks created massive declines in the markets 1 to 2 years later.

BE HONEST WITH YOURSELVES!!

#199 sailedaway on 05.18.20 at 1:02 pm

#135 Sail Away on 05.17.20 at 8:18 p

I don’t need subsidies to pay my staff.

Which confirms you don’t have the skills to pay the bills

#200 Larry Laffer on 05.18.20 at 1:20 pm

@#188 TurnerNation

“It’s all in your mind this illusion of safety.”

Hmm, let me go again through your previous posts. That’s what I thought: paranoid delirium. I’ll take my lessons on illusions in my mind from someone else, thank you.

But I’ll take any help in taking good care of my kids while my wife and I are sick. You know, real life stuff.

You in? Thought so.

#201 Faron on 05.18.20 at 1:57 pm

175 Howard on 05.18.20 at 5:54 am

#155 BOYCOTT CHINESE PRODUCTS on 05.17.20 at 11:42 pm

An Amazon search parameter allowing users to filter out products according to location of manufacture would be massively popular

——–

Would work for about 3 seconds or until they notice the non Chinese goods are 1.5 x the price. If you took all of the Chinese made goods out of Walmart you would be left with the produce section. The wallets call the shots and wallets are getting really thin.

#202 Dave on 05.18.20 at 4:56 pm

DELETED.