Hubris

RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

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When I got into the investment industry 25 years ago I was that classic, arrogant, overexuberant whipper snapper who thought because I did ok in university that I knew more than most. But I learned quickly how naive and wrong I was, and that having experience and some battle scars are what is required to survive and excel in this industry.

I started in the industry shortly before the tech crash, but not before I could be approved for my first line of credit and shortly thereafter lose most of it as the tech crash unfolded. That lesson, and others, have taught me to be much smarter and measured about my investment decisions. Singles and doubles are fine by me now versus throwing caution to the wind and going for the home runs.

Apparently, someone at a large Canadian pension fund has not learned these crucial lessons, as news that Alberta’s pension company – AIMCO Inc. – has lost over $3 billion in a derivative trade gone terribly wrong, providing a one-time (hopefully) hit to all its members, largely nurses, cops, and firemen. You know them, our heroes!

Today I’m going to review some high-risk derivative strategies that have gone terribly wrong for investors, and how hubris can lead people to make these poor investment decisions, causing much unnecessary loss and pain for investors.

Probably the most well-known example of these derivative trades blowing up is Long-Term Capital Management, which was a massive hedge fund run by a prominent bond trader, John Meriwether, and a few Nobel Prize-winning economists in the 1990s.

The hedge fund ran an arbitrage strategy, trying to find inefficiencies in the market and then using a lot of leverage on top of it. Their investment strategies were based upon hedging against a predictable range of volatility in FX and bonds. However, their fancy spreadsheets and models failed to account for events outside of this “predictable range” or otherwise known as black swan events. In this case it was a Russian debt default in 1998, which lead to the implosion and demise of the fund and requiring a $3.5 billion government bailout.

Another beauty was the natural gas trade from hell for Calgary-based trader Brian Hunter and the Amaranth fund. I remember reading about this at the time and I couldn’t believe the colossal screw-up and arrogance that led to this disastrous trade.

Brian, apparently a very successful energy trader in his day, began taking on larger and larger bets on the price of natural gas. In 2005 he made a huge speculative bet that natural gas prices would spike during the summer hurricane season. He was right and made over $1 billion in profits on the trade.

Then 2006 rolls around and hubris gets the best of him as he implements the same trade in 2006, but this time with an entirely different outcome. Natural gas prices started falling, leading the trader to double-down on the trade. This proved to be his and the hedge fund’s downfall with the trade losing over $6 billion.

For the huge $3 billion AIMCO trading loss it appears that an analyst or portfolio manager implemented a short volatility trade, where they would profit if volatility remained low. But if volatility goes the other way, they lose, and in this case $3 billion! Clearly someone’s calculator was not working that day.

What’s crazy about this whole thing is another firm, LJM Partners, a Chicago-based hedge fund blew themselves up in 2018 implementing the exact same trade. The fund was implementing these “low vol trades”, shorting volatility and collecting the premiums. All is good until volatility inevitably spikes and then boom, a multi-billion dollar hit. This is exactly why Warren Buffett famously called derivatives “financial weapons of mass destruction”.

What really grinds my gears about this risky strategy is that 2019 marked one of the least volatile years in recent history. Last year the S&P 500 did not endure even one 5% pullback (on average the S&P 500 has three 5% pullbacks and one 10% correction each year) and the volatility or VIX index traded at historically low levels of 11-12 and well below its long-term average of 21. This is exactly why I stated in our 2019 outlook, “That doesn’t mean we won’t see bouts of volatility and sell-offs occurring this year. In fact, I see the potential for higher volatility this year.” Apparently, the pension company did not see this as a meaningful risk for this year.

The VIX Traded At the Lowest Level in Years During 2019

Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments

So what are the lessons from today’s blog post?

First, keep it simple by investing in a mix of stocks and fixed income, and avoid investing in these sexy, high-risk, derivative strategies. As one person said in regard to these strategies, “it’s like picking up nickels in front of a steamroller”.

Second, stop thinking you’re the smartest person in the room and have figured out some new amazing investment strategy that no one else has hit. Trust me, it’s already been done before and the few examples noted above are proof of this.

Third, risk-management needs to be front and centre when constructing portfolios. Sure, not every investment is going to work out, but that’s why you need a mix of different assets and investments to spread out the risk and try to minimize major portfolio losses.

Lastly, don’t just assume your pension, whether it’s private or public, is 100% safe and is going to be there when you need it. AIMCO will likely recover from this major loss and hopefully learn from this experience, but this black swan/global pandemic event and steep market correction shows that anything can happen and that life doesn’t always adhere to “predictable ranges”.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

184 comments ↓

#1 YouKnowWho on 05.09.20 at 10:25 am

FYI

Here is the flip side of the situation that TV media doesn’t seem to be reporting much:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-stay-away-from-here-in-china-foreigners-have-become-a-target-for/

https://abcnews.go.com/International/foreigners-black-people-unwelcome-parts-china-amid-covid/story?id=70182204

The moral of this story?

Humanity can be ugly anywhere.

#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.09.20 at 10:29 am

Look, folks, even the Snowbirds had to turn back on their trip this morning, because of the weather.

It’s just not a a good time to travel.

The sign in this story says it so very well:

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/05/09/hope-for-snow-or-send-them-home-cottage-countrys-year-round-residents-look-to-a-long-weekend-with-the-pandemic.html

COTTAGERS PICK A HOME AND STAY PLEASE STOP TRAVELLING

In front of the station of some of our beloved first responders trying to keep us all safe. They are not anti-Toronto extremists, they are life-savers, so stop your name calling.

Please just stay away.

Maybe you can come up later this summer. But probably not until 2021. We have to accept this likelihood.

Please.

#3 PSL on 05.09.20 at 10:31 am

“.. but this black swan/global pandemic event ..”

try and get it right Ryan, it wasn’t a black swan… it was a forseable event that governments did not prepare for, nor did markets.

Taleb himself among others predicted more of these pandemics, way back when he wrote his book.

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.20 at 10:34 am

Well done Ryan, another easy to read , layman’s explanation of complex financial strategies.
However.
It’s tough admitting you’re not the “smartest person in the room”…but I comfort myself in the knowledge that this blog is….. a very big room.

+++++++

Yo STAY AWAY FROM YOUR COTTAGE
I guess your premier didn’t get the message….?

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/cottage-owners-ontario-covid19-doug-ford-travel

#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.09.20 at 10:42 am

“Hubris”

Great title, Ryan. You nailed it.

That’s exactly the reckless, selfish, ill-informed attitude of volatility traders AND people who are driving into cottage country in these times.

Hubris endangers us all, financially and medically.

You want to check on your cottage plumbing? Fine, hire a local plumber online and get it done with the help of online access or a local locksmith. You’ll be supporting the local economy at the same time, and we will thank you for it. Don’t drive up and try to do it yourself putting us all at greater risk.

You’re not special snowflakes, cottagers.

Please, just be sensible. Stay away. Stay home and be safe.

#6 TurnerNation on 05.09.20 at 10:45 am

State of the Nation: in a store today I started convos with customers, staff. That’s what I do. I’m not an online monologue I get out there and talk with people.
All concurred ,this is absurd or communism or a version of hell. One used the term facism (their word not mine). 4 out of 4 I spoke with.

All large stores, staff must wear t-shirts stating: Practice Distancing. Canada Post trucks state the same.
We have no more culture; all cultural events are suspended – likely forever. This is a period of cultural re-programming: compliance compliance compliance.
If you do not comply with Corporate Theocracy you will not be able to transact commerce in their stores.
(I’ve known for years that all the governments, corporations have put into the top positions only those people on-board with this UN plan. Sounds crazy but now you see it with your own eyes.)


The future: yesterday our local leaders gave us clear plans on the future of economy & culture in our new bleak open-air UN tax farm camp:

1. Toronto. Mayor says the ‘new normal’ (they have created for us) will be long line ups and appointment-only services downtown. In other words, forced rationing. Distancing is a silent weapon being used to break us.
Tell me, I see 100 people lining up at a grocery store outside. What about when it’s -20 windchill? The frostbite and sickness will be unbearable here in cold Soviet Canada. They pre-planned solution is the one they told us day one: #stayhome and order
online. The old and poor will be the ones most affected, they may not be online or have a credit card or have regular working hours to receive the delivery at their home. God our elites hate the weak.
Physical grocery stores might become a thing of the past. Shelves filled with bounty for our taking, no longer.
The might allow ration cards: each family is alloted one day of shopping and 1/2 hour each week. Like a game show you can throw items into your cart asap as you run down the aisles.

2. Calgary: cutting dozens of bus routes. How can busineses re-open when employees must spend hours on remaining re-routed bus lines, or walk longer distances – and in brutal winter? Answer is small businesses must be wiped out.
This bus change affects poor, working and elderly. Once again an attack on the most vunerable.
The message is clear: #Stayhome (and collect CERB instead)

3. Quebec: school kids can return only under prison like conditions. See that’s the point of all this. Making it so difficult returning to our ‘old ways’ that we give up an embrace the New System. That is, kids being educated at home in front of a screen by the State large tech companies which run the world. No in-person socializing.
Shopping in person is so hard, #stayhome and order online instead.

– There’s no more talk of quaint concepts they taught us like ” flat curve” or “lighten load on hospitals. (We know they are empty and our health care is being severely rationed. No our UN-backed leaders have jumped straight into imposing brutal kamp conditions on us. This is it folks, the Crown takover of the world is here. Prove me wrong)

#7 Andrewski on 05.09.20 at 10:47 am

Ryan, great info for all investors, especially the proliferation of new to the game self directed individuals.

Sad to see how scammers are taking advantage of those who are desperate & not financially savvy.

https://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/news/2020/osc-and-rcmp-issue-joint-warning-coronavirus-investment-scams-0

#8 Drill Baby Drill on 05.09.20 at 10:52 am

Do you think there can be further fallout with Aimco as in potentially more losses yet to be realised?

#9 OlderbutWiser on 05.09.20 at 10:52 am

Ryan, you state that the members of the plans managed by AIMCO “will take a one time hit”. These are defined benefit pension funds for government employees. The employees will not be the ones taking the hit…nope, it will be all of us taxpayers without gold plated pension plans that will be the ones “taking the hit”.

When has a pension fund operated by the government ever gotten into such a mess that the plan members themselves took the hit….can you name one? I can name lots in the private sector…but that doesn’t count.

#10 Andrew on 05.09.20 at 11:07 am

Hi Ryan, any thoughts on Paul Tudor Jones investing in bitcoin?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/paul-tudor-jones-buys-bitcoin-says-he-s-reminded-of-gold-in-70s

https://static.bitwiseinvestments.com/Research/Bitwise-The-Case-For-Bitcoin-In-An-Institutional-Portfolio.pdf

#11 trexx on 05.09.20 at 11:08 am

What about Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Neiman Marcus?

#12 Do we have all the facts on 05.09.20 at 11:18 am

All investment is based on confidence. If you feel that the economic future of an investment is bright buy the future gains. If you feel the economic future is bleak buy the future losses. In theory derivatives provide a range of check and balance options that seem to work until they don’t.

If 2008 taught investors anything it was that things don’t always appear to be what the experts are telling us they are. The big boys got real greedy and millions of investors suffered without compensation for their losses.

Does anybody have a clue where the world stands on derivatives at this point in time. Who is betting on a quick recovery and who is betting on a possible depression.? One thing we can bet on is that the big boys are hedging their bets until the smoke clears.

The ordinary investor has very little insight into how or why the big boys make their decisions and whether their guesses are based on facts or greed. Mistakes can be made when there is insufficient data to base sound decisions on or when greed blurs ethical judgement.

I feel that we need a clearer picture of what the future might bring after Covid 19 before exposing our remaining assets to unnecessary risk.

#13 BrianT on 05.09.20 at 11:29 am

Here is the question I would like a reporter to ask Trudeau or Ford or Tory: “How many lives are you willing to sacrifice to prevent one coronavirus death?” Obviously that would be the end of their MSM job but still it would be nice to see truth spoken to power every once in a while.

#14 Sky on 05.09.20 at 11:44 am

Boston Dynamics social distancing robot dog ‘Spot’, deployed in Singapore parks. Comes with cameras and sensors to track you.

“Down Boy” @ 2:13

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DJmIjKtVkA

#15 Turkey day on 05.09.20 at 11:48 am

All is calm… food is plentiful…. nice farmer… low volatility…. and then…… its Turkey day.

It wasn’t a black swan.

#16 SOMETHINGS UP on 05.09.20 at 11:49 am

“Earth provides enough to satisfy every man’s NEEDS, but not every man’s GREED”

~ Mahatma Gandhi

#17 Ryan Lewenza on 05.09.20 at 11:50 am

Drill Baby Drill “ Do you think there can be further fallout with Aimco as in potentially more losses yet to be realised?”

It’s possible. AIMCO has not been very transparent on the strategy, who implemented it and the losses (realized and unrealized). Because AIMCO hasn’t been transparent I’m going off what’s been reported in the G&M and others. – Ryan L

#18 Shawn Allen on 05.09.20 at 11:50 am

Pension Hits and One-Sided Views

#9 OlderbutWiser on 05.09.20 at 10:52 am
Ryan, you state that the members of the plans managed by AIMCO “will take a one time hit”. These are defined benefit pension funds for government employees. The employees will not be the ones taking the hit…nope, it will be all of us taxpayers without gold plated pension plans that will be the ones “taking the hit”.

When has a pension fund operated by the government ever gotten into such a mess that the plan members themselves took the hit….can you name one? I can name lots in the private sector…but that doesn’t count.

****************************************
The one-sided view is that the employees in the AIMCO pension plan will not take ANY hit and it will fall only on “all of us tax payers without gold-plated pension plans”.

The facts are more balanced than that. The Alberta government pension plans have been precisely equally funded by employees and the government as employer for many decades.

Contribution rates from both employees and the government sky rocketed (more than doubled) over the last 20 years or more and finally stabalized and declined a tiny amount in the past couple of years.

So employees very much shared the pain when those pensions became under-funded. Yes cue the “all government salaries are paid by taxpayers crowd” which is an attractive argument but is fundamentally wrong. Government employees are compensated for their time like private sector employees. If their total compensation is too high, well that’s the governments falut. But part of the value of their time goes to pension contributions and they are also tax payers.

Try more balance in both portfolies and in views on all things.

#19 Yukon Elvis on 05.09.20 at 11:56 am

Lastly, don’t just assume your pension, whether it’s private or public, is 100% safe and is going to be there when you need it.
…………………………..

And that is the scary part. Despite our best efforts we could get squashed like a bug.

#20 Ryan Lewenza on 05.09.20 at 11:57 am

Andrew “ Hi Ryan, any thoughts on Paul Tudor Jones investing in bitcoin?”

Reading through the article he’s buying it as a hedge against future inflation. I don’t really get Bitcoin nor do I know how to value it so that’s not for me. But having inflation hedges is a wise idea. TIPS are good for this and our preferred share holdings also provide a hedge against inflation as their dividend yields would rise with inflation and higher interest rates. – Ryan L

#21 LP on 05.09.20 at 11:58 am

Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!
**************************

Maybe if you were not so confrontational, aggressive and ugly sounding you might appeal to cottagers more co-operative natures. But being told in the manner you use to not go to their taxes-paid, local commerce- supporting and constitutionally assured property naturally makes people oppose you. I am aware of the issues you are concerned about. But shoe on the other foot, if you were told to stay out of the city in the summer because the citizens were afraid that your water use, for instance, would deplete the water table, or the subways would be too crowded on hot days, or attractions like the CNE would be overrun, how would you feel? Like a second class citizen maybe?

Tone it down a little!

#22 Keyboard Smasher on 05.09.20 at 12:00 pm

LTCM is a REALLY cool story, I’m happy to see it mentioned on the blog.

Those guys were SMART, they applied some very interesting technology in their hedging mechanism, I believe they tried to eliminate the risk component in the Black-Scholes options pricing model by dynamically hedging their position with some obscure time-variable calculus developed by a Japanese rocket scientist named Ito.

It worked pretty damn well until the market’s started behaving irrationally and working against them. IIRC, it was the Russian default on their sovereign debt that crossed the wiring in LTCM’s complex models, which is even more amusing when you discover that the Russian bonds paid interest in Rubles, thus could have been saved by simply printing more! 1990s Russia was a wild time.

#23 cottagebob on 05.09.20 at 12:05 pm

@#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.09.20 at 10:29 am
___________________________

ahh, just got back from a paddle.
even with the weather being what it is its a beauty up here. glad i made the trip last night. haven’t seen a soul and don’t plan on it.

cheers

#24 Figure it Out on 05.09.20 at 12:07 pm

Not enough data presented on AIMCO’s short vol strategy. How much had they collected in premiums, over what time period, prior to the loss? If you’re collecting $300mm a year in premiums in exchange for periodical once-in-a-decade two billion losses, you can do it all day long. Eventually, somebody will crown you “the next Warren Buffett” because that’s much of his business.

A pension fund for a province with a young, growing population would be ideally positioned to take these sort of risks, if the premium was commensurate. On the other hand, halting the writing of these options after a bad loss — just when volatility and thus the premiums are highest — compounds the misery of the loss.

Summary: Bad take. Not enough facts in evidence to support or disprove the conclusion.

#25 FYI on 05.09.20 at 12:09 pm

@#21 LP on 05.09.20 at 11:58 am
Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!
**************************

Maybe if you were not so confrontational, aggressive and ugly sounding you might appeal to cottagers more co-operative natures. But being told in the manner you use to not go to their taxes-paid, local commerce- supporting and constitutionally assured property naturally makes people oppose you. I am aware of the issues you are concerned about. But shoe on the other foot, if you were told to stay out of the city in the summer because the citizens were afraid that your water use, for instance, would deplete the water table, or the subways would be too crowded on hot days, or attractions like the CNE would be overrun, how would you feel? Like a second class citizen maybe?

Tone it down a little!
______________________

the guys a troll – sounds very similar to a couple other long time trolls on here ie: happyhouseingcrash and 50years of leafs… – most likely all the same poster.

#26 Camille on 05.09.20 at 12:10 pm

Thanks for your post Ryan. You write “Lastly, don’t just assume your pension, whether it’s private or public, is 100% safe and is going to be there when you need it.”
I’m glad you wrote this. It applies also to diversified and balanced portfolios, like those i expect you manage and I hold.
At the early stage of this pandemic, when markets crashed and bonds reached the limit of their offsetting abilities, I understood that I too was invested, and being so had taken on risk.
I see no alternative for most, but better understand that investing, no matter what the mix, means risk.

#27 AlMac on 05.09.20 at 12:11 pm

Public health measures imposed on reopening will kill businesses both small and large. It seems a long recession is baked in.

Here is an example of a large business in big trouble. Inside sources at Air Canada recently watched a pod cast from the CEO in which he could offer no clear path forward. Furloughs, early retirements, and layoffs are the order of the day.

Just to break even, larger airlines like AC need at least 60% capacity, and 70% for long haul international flights. Empty middle seats or other spacing measures simply will not work. With getting back to ‘near normal’ not happening anytime soon, we will likely see the demise of many airlines. AC shares seemed like a bargain at $15 in March, but not anymore.

#28 Crush the curve on 05.09.20 at 12:14 pm

We ain’t winning yet in canada…..

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries#winning

#29 Sail Away on 05.09.20 at 12:22 pm

Aimco- hoo boy.

Why would the management company try this strategy? Charlie Munger at last year’s AGM said that pension managers get paid their 1% regardless of performance, so all they really need is to get the contract and their business model is solid.

Why choose risky investment strategies? Were they being compensated as percentage of performance?

Heck, 1% of $1B is $10M. Their company was pulling in huge fees. What possible reason could they have for jeopardizing the principle? Dummies.

#30 White swan on 05.09.20 at 12:23 pm

Taleb even commented on it…

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1255584564996714503?s=19

#31 Sail Away on 05.09.20 at 12:28 pm

I would say it is a Black Swan. We’ve always had colds and flus, but never before has the entire world governance acted so uniformly irrational.

The reaction, not the flu, is the Black Swan.

#32 dogman01 on 05.09.20 at 12:30 pm

Keep up the monitoring TurnerNation

Globalist agenda….. my constructive take.

There are two camps, the “useful idiots” and the Globalist Idealists.

The “useful idiots” in this case are those seeking more profits from wage arbitrage and moving production (prosperity) overseas; the Global Capitalists. This weakens any prosperous “nation-state” that embraces wholesale domestic industrial capacity destruction. ….like Canada.

The Globalist Idealists: after WWII it was realized that “Great Power War” = end of Human Civilization.
You can see now that a natural virus can close us down, imagine what an engineered warfare virus might be like, not to mention nuclear weapons etc. So the assumption of Modern “Great Power War” = end of Human Civilization is correct.

Nationalism and humans mistakes will eventually result in Great Power war, watch this amazing documentary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LsRRTvPigY

So the “Globalist Idealists” are on a mission to change the world system. They can’t be open about the means , destruction of national interest, a global standard of living, some form of population control, all to prevent future great power war and the end of humanity.

If you are a Canadian it is obvious that our “elite” certainly are not working in the interests of Canadians at the macro level.

#33 Sail Away on 05.09.20 at 12:35 pm

#19 Yukon Elvis on 05.09.20 at 11:56 am
Lastly, don’t just assume your pension, whether it’s private or public, is 100% safe and is going to be there when you need it.

—————

And that is the scary part. Despite our best efforts we could get squashed like a bug.

—————

Always.

So always build a strong foundation. Transferrable skills, flexible mindset and diversification.

Never trust anything you’re not holding.

#34 YouKnowWho on 05.09.20 at 12:50 pm

Obesity a risk factor for that virus from that place?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-obesity-may-be-a-risk-factor-for-covid-19-researchers-find/

Add it to all the other factors. And yet these sugar and fast food companies keep trying to stuff us with their army of scientists working on addictive compounds to add to foods so we eat more.

As a result we’re fatter than ever and of course that puts us as a population at higher risk than ever.

Any doubt this is a contributing factor to death rates?

#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.20 at 12:59 pm

#27 AlMac on 05.09.20 at 12:11 pm
Public health measures imposed on reopening will kill businesses both small and large. It seems a long recession is baked in.

Here is an example of a large business in big trouble. Inside sources at Air Canada recently watched a pod cast from the CEO in which he could offer no clear path forward. Furloughs, early retirements, and layoffs are the order of the day.

Just to break even, larger airlines like AC need at least 60% capacity, and 70% for long haul international flights. Empty middle seats or other spacing measures simply will not work. With getting back to ‘near normal’ not happening anytime soon, we will likely see the demise of many airlines. AC shares seemed like a bargain at $15 in March, but not anymore.
————
The end of cheap charter flights to Mexico, for sure.
But many people still will want and have to fly.
They will pay a good Schilling to do so.
Be ready to shell out more for goods and services.

#36 Yukon Elvis on 05.09.20 at 1:11 pm

#33 Sail Away on 05.09.20 at 12:35 pm
#19 Yukon Elvis on 05.09.20 at 11:56 am
Lastly, don’t just assume your pension, whether it’s private or public, is 100% safe and is going to be there when you need it.

—————

And that is the scary part. Despite our best efforts we could get squashed like a bug.

—————

Always.

So always build a strong foundation. Transferrable skills, flexible mindset and diversification.

Never trust anything you’re not holding.
………………………………..

Exactly.

I have cpp,oas, rrsp,tfsa,market account, 3 db pensions, and cash. I own my home and have no debt. Out of all that only ccp/oas are pretty much golden. The rest are all subject to market forces/deterioration/or crashes.Even the cash loses value at the rate of inflation. Some would suggest that I am “diversified” but the lowest common denominator is that most of it, even the 3 dbs, is invested in the markets and subject to its influences. I sleep ok but nothing is 100% guaranteed . I have done what I can but even I could have big losses in one swell foop.

#37 Linda on 05.09.20 at 1:13 pm

The blog photo of the day is so cute, but also very apropos:)

AimCo. As a member of a pension fund managed by AimCo, let me just say I’m less than impressed. Early news reports stated that the recent loss was due to AimCo’s not ‘fully understanding’ the risks. Not what one wants to hear from a fund manager, especially a fund manager who recently benefited from legislation passed by the current Alberta UCP government which specifies that pensions under AimCo’s management can’t remove them as their fund manager, regardless of how poorly they perform. The UCP forced all public pension funds under AimCo via legislation last November. While it is true that most Alberta public pension funds were already being managed by AimCo, the previous management contract had a 5 year expiry date, after which funds being managed by AimCo were free to seek out a different fund manager. The UCP stated this legislation was meant to ‘save money’. Not ours, apparently. Incidentally, despite the much trumpeted ‘independent’ & ‘arm’s length’ relationship that the UCP said AimCo has, the recent legislation implemented & passed by the UCP forcing funds to keep AimCo as a manager plus the investment of pension funds into oil & gas projects such as the Kitimat LNG facility make any such assertions less than believable. A government that legislates that a fund manager can’t be removed & which forces a pension fund to accept said manager is obviously not at ‘arm’s length’.

#38 BrianT on 05.09.20 at 1:17 pm

#32Dogman-I wouldn’t call the global billionaire class (95% of whom are vocal proponents of globalization) “useful idiots”-overall they are a lot smarter than average and a lot more ruthless in looking out for themselves. The “idealists” thing is also a major stretch-Communist China would not be such a huge military threat had it not been built by the “elite” in the first place.

#39 Justin on 05.09.20 at 1:17 pm

Thanks Ryan – I enjoy your posts because they are usually backed by data and specific examples. We know good managers are rewarded to the extreme. What happens to the managers who mess up peoples pensions? Do they continue to thrive and retire in comfort while the workers keep going to work till age 70?

#40 Figure it Out on 05.09.20 at 1:27 pm

“The end of cheap charter flights to Mexico, for sure.”

Reading this made me look up the USD-MXP exchange rate. That and cheap fuel may well mean MORE cheap vacation packages. Countries like Mexico can’t afford to pass on tourism dollars.

#41 kc on 05.09.20 at 1:35 pm

6 TurnerNation on 05.09.20 at 10:45 am

– There’s no more talk of quaint concepts they taught us like ” flat curve” or “lighten load on hospitals. (We know they are empty and our health care is being severely rationed. No our UN-backed leaders have jumped straight into imposing brutal kamp conditions on us. This is it folks, the Crown takover of the world is here. Prove me wrong)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Something to think about.

Other half’s dad is in a hospital here in BC. 80, with dementia, and couple other issues.

The covid crap is a non-issue if he lives or dies. He is negative. The issue we are having is in seeing him. My wife is a complete wreck after 5 days of not being allowed to enter the hospital to see him. It is his family that keeps him grounded from the set in of dementia.

If he passes and my wife isn’t allowed in to see him before this happens. (if he is at that place now) she will never be the same.

This virus crap is pure horsecrap, and we as canadians are losing all rights we ever had.

I 100% guarantee all members of all parliaments are getting private care and this lock down will not effect any visitation rights.

1 set rules for the rulers and another for the plebs.

#42 Toronto_CA on 05.09.20 at 1:36 pm

“The end of cheap charter flights to Mexico, for sure.
But many people still will want and have to fly.
They will pay a good Schilling to do so.
Be ready to shell out more for goods and services.”

___________

Want to fly? People will, but the majority don’t want to go get a haircut, nevermind travel to a scary foreign land where they don’t have health insurance and could be quarantined against their will. The risk is so small it may as not exist, but in their heads it is giant.

As for “have to fly” – that would be business travel, and the longer the world goes on without people phyiscally travelling, I would say that goes down in demand to the point of cratering.

If airlines jack up the price, they will not entice demand except for the very small minority of super rich or super desperate. And that isn’t going to pay the bills.

People will pay a premium, but they won’t pay 20x what they did in February 2020.

#43 Roial1 on 05.09.20 at 1:37 pm

36 Yukon Elvis on 05.09.20 at 1:11 pm

” swell foop.”

Are you a Terry Pratchett fan too? LOL.

#44 Judy A. Mikovits PhD on 05.09.20 at 1:48 pm

DELETED

#45 Linda on 05.09.20 at 1:50 pm

#9 ‘Older’ – in point of fact, the Alberta government passed legislation literal decades ago that specified that ‘the taxpayer’ would not be ‘on the hook’ for any pension shortfalls for LAPP (the Local Authorities Pension Plan). LAPP had been in a deficit situation post 2008. Plan members paid higher premiums – so high that it required CCRA approval as they exceeded the allowed plan contribution limits under pension law – for a number of years until the former deficit became a surplus.

One can of course argue that since many plan members are government employees that the taxpayer is paying for the plan in any case. Keep in mind that those employees also pay taxes, so in effect it could be argued that the plan members are in fact paying both the employee & the employer share of the premiums.

One hears the statement that government employees are exempt from job loss or layoffs that affect the private sector. While this is not accurate, I would concede that layoffs & job losses in the public sector occur with far less frequency than in the private sector, though they DO occur.

Which brings up EI. Government employees pay into EI yet are highly unlikely to ever receive it. I’d argue those sums should be counted towards the employee share of eventual pension payments as well. Wouldn’t that be ‘fair’?

#46 NoName on 05.09.20 at 1:53 pm

Now that black swan is mentioned we have to revisit this video again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/rubih67/status/1246793907947667456

#47 dogman01 on 05.09.20 at 1:58 pm

#38 BrianT on 05.09.20 at 1:17 pm

I am putting a “positive spin” on their end game machinations.

“Useful idiots”, In that the Global Idealists are using the greed drive of the Global Capitalists to full fill their agenda.

Let’s face it, the Western Capitalists have been gleefully sending capacity (& Technology and Know-how) to a rival whom will take the west down at the first opportunity; Useful Idiots.

#48 Trading stocks on 05.09.20 at 2:00 pm

I am curious for every trade there is a buying and a seller
So if someone lost 6 billion someone made 6 billion?

Stocks do not move by themselves they move by people trading positions they have in a position?

For me if I buy 100 shares of BNS and it drops $1.00 it’s a paper loss till I sell.

Thanks for the post have a great weekend.

#49 ImGonnaBeSick on 05.09.20 at 2:08 pm

#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.09.20 at 10:42 am

God I wish there was a mute button here. You have got to be the one of the most annoying people I’ve come across on here…

#50 GrumpyPanda on 05.09.20 at 2:13 pm

Pension funds fund a liability. This liability is established by union leaders whose goal is to get the most money for members for the least amount of work. Governments risk facing the wrath of voters who work for or are related to such members. Thus, they give into ever increasing demands to maintain service. Recently the Ontario teachers agreed to a 1% raise with no increase in the student/teacher ratio and reluctantly, online learning. Pension funds have been forced to take on more risk.
Expect to read more about under funding.

#51 Peter on 05.09.20 at 2:14 pm

I agree completely with #9 on aimco – corrupt politicians always socialize the losses which mean higher taxes for all. Not sure it makes sense to live in a country where that happens unless your are poor or lack skills to survive (and therefore get subsidized). I know its cruel to say this out loud. Given global overpopulation, we could afford to lose a few.

#52 Reality is stark on 05.09.20 at 2:47 pm

The Fraser Institute already warned Canadians in 2018 that public sector pension plans were taking too much risk as standard practice. This was done to boost public sector pension payouts at the ultimate expense of the Canadian taxpayer.
This is immoral but the person overseeing public sector pensions at the Federal government level needs to be fired for allowing this idiocy.
All of this was foreseeable. Screwing the tax payer on a regular basis should not be the operating formula for a country.
We need a Boston Tea Party.
You cannot borrow and tax your way to prosperity.
What is wrong with Canadians?

#53 not 1st on 05.09.20 at 3:07 pm

Now the other side has arrived;

Coronavirus pandemic may lead to 75,000 “deaths of despair” from suicide, drug and alcohol abuse, study says

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-deaths-suicides-drugs-alcohol-pandemic-75000/

#54 SaraJ on 05.09.20 at 3:16 pm

Every strategy works until it doesn’t – even with Prefs and Div investing you can happily collect coupons until interest rates drop from 2% to 1% and you realize that you lost 50% of your principal or 10+years worth of divs or oil drops to -$37 and your favorite oil div company cuts dividend and their share get haircut

#55 joblo on 05.09.20 at 3:19 pm

#6 TurnerNation on 05.09.20 at 10:45 am

“(We know they are empty and our health care is being severely rationed. No our UN-backed leaders have jumped straight into imposing brutal kamp conditions on us. This is it folks, the Crown takover of the world is here. Prove me wrong)”

Hard to argue.

#56 DFO on 05.09.20 at 3:22 pm

How about instead of heing careful maybe we can ban these kinds of economy wrecking mechanism?

Or maybe the problem is capitalism, a system so efficient every capitalist society has regular ‘downturns’ turning millions of workers and billions in capital into tax sinkholes and idling losses?

Just a thought! Covid, dotcom bust, 2008 bad debts, etc etc etc etc etc if your car breaks down every time the weather changes is the real problem the weather?

#57 JSS on 05.09.20 at 3:23 pm

I live in Alberta. 2/3 of Albertans would love nothing else than to watch its public sector see their pension blow up. There’s lots of jealousy because they have a pension and the rest of us don’t. Even though public sector employees pay around half into it. The government will likely ruin it (on purpose) in order to make their base happy.

#58 Not So New Guy on 05.09.20 at 3:27 pm

There are usually three things that kill big funds:

1. Leverage to ridiculous levels

2. Counterparty risk (who is on the other side of the trade and can you sell back to them or can they afford to lose big when you win big. If your market liquidity goes dead, so do you)

3. Trading other people’s money. It is so easy to lose a few billion dollars when you know ultimately it is not yours and the Fed will need to jump in if you mess up your 300 to 1 leveraged trade

#59 Lost...but not leased on 05.09.20 at 3:37 pm

#41 kc on 05.09.20 at 1:35 pm
6 TurnerNation on 05.09.20 at 10:45 am

– There’s no more talk of quaint concepts they taught us like ” flat curve” or “lighten load on hospitals. (We know they are empty and our health care is being severely rationed. No our UN-backed leaders have jumped straight into imposing brutal kamp conditions on us. This is it folks, the Crown takover of the world is here. Prove me wrong)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Something to think about.

Other half’s dad is in a hospital here in BC. 80, with dementia, and couple other issues.

The covid crap is a non-issue if he lives or dies. He is negative. The issue we are having is in seeing him. My wife is a complete wreck after 5 days of not being allowed to enter the hospital to see him. It is his family that keeps him grounded from the set in of dementia.

If he passes and my wife isn’t allowed in to see him before this happens. (if he is at that place now) she will never be the same.

This virus crap is pure horsecrap, and we as canadians are losing all rights we ever had.

I 100% guarantee all members of all parliaments are getting private care and this lock down will not effect any visitation rights.

1 set rules for the rulers and another for the plebs.

===============================
COMMENT:

My sympathies for you, your wife and her father. I lost both my parents within 3 years, one from cancer the other had dementia…but IMHO both were victims of a corrupt public health care system pre- COVID 19.

Further to this, I have little if any confidence with the current public health care system, they have sold us out.

More people are waking up that we are being manipulated, deceived and herded like cattle.

#60 JacqueShellacque on 05.09.20 at 3:44 pm

It’s the short-term nature of traders that’s the problem. They’ll choose the small, regular gains at the risk of infrequent but catastrophic losses, over the small losses to set up the infrequent but massive gain.

#61 Lost...but not leased on 05.09.20 at 3:46 pm

#57 JSS on 05.09.20 at 3:23 pm
I live in Alberta. 2/3 of Albertans would love nothing else than to watch its public sector see their pension blow up. There’s lots of jealousy because they have a pension and the rest of us don’t. Even though public sector employees pay around half into it. The government will likely ruin it (on purpose) in order to make their base happy.

=============================

Bankrupt Public Pensions are common in USA.

Not wishing ill will…but eventually these Gov’t workers have to face reality…the Golden Goose is cooked…no more blood out of a stone. The general public won’t tolerate a 2 -tier economic class system.

Welcome to the (Uncertain) new world…

#62 Ryan Lewenza on 05.09.20 at 3:48 pm

JSS “I live in Alberta. 2/3 of Albertans would love nothing else than to watch its public sector see their pension blow up. There’s lots of jealousy because they have a pension and the rest of us don’t. Even though public sector employees pay around half into it. The government will likely ruin it (on purpose) in order to make their base happy.”

I’ve never understood peoples disdain for public sector workers and their pensions. First, the “public sector” is not just some bureaucrat collecting a government pay cheque. Like I said, it’s nurses, teachers, police etc. The people keeping us safe, educating our kids and preparing them for the world, and taking care of us when we’re most vulnerable. They are everyday heroes in my book so I don’t know why, as you claim, 2/3rds of Albertans would want their pensions to blow up. Second, nothing is stopping you or anyone else from getting a public sector job and collecting that pension you so much despise. So I disagree with almost everything you said. – Ryan L

#63 Stylite on 05.09.20 at 3:59 pm

I always look forward to your articles Ryan! This ones a gooder.

#64 Nixter on 05.09.20 at 4:10 pm

DELETED

#65 Grateful in Victoria on 05.09.20 at 4:12 pm

This is an excellent blog post. One of the best and most informative this year.

Thank you.

#66 Axehead on 05.09.20 at 4:14 pm

“There is nothing new under the sun,” King Solomon.

#67 AKS on 05.09.20 at 4:23 pm

I just loved reading this part:

“The Edmonton-based Crown corporation manages about $119-billion on behalf of 375,000 members of provincial public retirement programs as well as public accounts such as the province’s $18-billion Heritage Savings Trust Fund. With investment decisions that affect pension beneficiaries as well as Alberta taxpayers, the loss raises questions about whether the strategy was too risky.

The sources said that AIMCo now acknowledges its executives were not fully aware of the risks they were taking.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-alberta-pension-manager-loses-4-billion-on-investment-bet-gone-wrong/

#68 AKS on 05.09.20 at 4:25 pm

How much were these “executives” paid…who didn’t even understand investment risks!

#69 AGuyInVancouver on 05.09.20 at 4:35 pm

One quick question Ryan: go heavy in US or CAD equities for the rest of 2020?

#70 Retro Marxist on 05.09.20 at 4:40 pm

Toronto real estate prices and charts. Where are they going?https://www.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/ggil9q/toronto_real_estate_prices_and_charts_where_are/

#71 majik on 05.09.20 at 4:40 pm

#42 Toronto_CA on 05.09.20 at 1:36 pm
“As for “have to fly” – that would be business travel, and the longer the world goes on without people phyiscally travelling, I would say that goes down in demand to the point of cratering.”

——————————

The “have to fly” will not be business. The first sector to restart in commercial aviation will be family/friends travel. Repatriation flights are the tip of that iceberg. Families have now had enforced separation for over two months, longer in some other cases. The first upswing for aviation will come from that sector followed by leisure travel and lastly business travel.

#72 Not So New Guy on 05.09.20 at 4:47 pm

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.20 at 10:34 am

It’s tough admitting you’re not the “smartest person in the room”…

==================================

Don’t forget that it is usually the smartest people in the room that trigger both world wars and stock market crashes.

#73 Classical Liberal Millennial on 05.09.20 at 4:49 pm

As someone who is part of a public sector pension, I can assure you that we pay a significant portion of our wage into that plan. More than you might think. I can also assure you I know I’m very fortunate to be a part of a DB plan.

#74 JUST LQQKING on 05.09.20 at 4:51 pm

the only thing you guest blogger confirmed is that, like everyone else on this site, his hindsight is 20/20…and it’s not “risk and greed”…it’s fear and greed!

#75 BrianT on 05.09.20 at 4:51 pm

#62Ryan-your response is not logical-if one has a negative perception of the public service that individual is not obliged to go to work for the public service or else shut up-it is very important that the public hold the public servants accountable in a democracy-everyone should have the right of free speech.

#76 TrendIsYourFriend on 05.09.20 at 5:13 pm

It all comes down to one thing – risk management. Fintwit is full of “loading up the boat” on this stock or that stock. Loading up the boat even on a single ETF is reckless, unless you have a good stop. I paid my lesson to mr. market, many of us did I guess. But it’s criminal when it’s done by pros.
Turner guys talking about 8ish pct annual return, well, that’s responsible management of other people’s money. Do they incurre losses? I guess they do, that’s the nature of this game. But it’s the overall result that matters.

i remember well when I got spanked for having too many call positions (to many as a % of the account size) opened and the market suddenly reversed, few years ago. Nice dent. Why did I do that? To double my account in a month. LOL. Lesson learned – risk management first.

Can’t believe a fund gets liquidated because the manager went all in. But looks like they do. Wth did he think? Double the portfolio size?

Interesting how majority of the funds can’t consistently outperform the market.

#77 WAKEUP on 05.09.20 at 5:17 pm

#34 YouKnowWho

Fast foods and sugary foods don’t kill people.

Cars don’t kill people.

Guns don’t kill people.

Alcohol doesn’t kill people.

Cigarettes don’t kill people.

Statistically it’s bad choices and human error that inevitably kill people, we have to quit blaming inanimate objects and have to accept the consequences.

#78 kc on 05.09.20 at 5:23 pm

59 Lost…but not leased on 05.09.20 at 3:37 pm

THANKS!!! pre- this you know how hard it is now… word came down today… it is terminal.

You were able to say good bye in person. Count your blessings.

thanks.

cheers

#79 GrumpyPanda on 05.09.20 at 5:24 pm

#62 & 74 When I was young my Dad told me government jobs paid less but had greater job security. That changed. Guess who paid for it?

#80 Ace Goodheart on 05.09.20 at 5:28 pm

Don’t forget this guy:

Naked shorts on natural gas futures:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNYNMM0hXXY

#81 TurnerNation on 05.09.20 at 5:28 pm

#14 Sky I scanned the comments one jumped out. That this is the end of compassion. Indeed it is.
I already posted about this.

– Even wearing a full protective suit – in keeping with established scientific protocols – the State will not allow you be hold the hand of a sick, dying or elderly relative

– The State does’t care for your innocence. Courts are closed and as I stated I do not believe will re-open in their current form. As per USA models the low risk, property & personal crimes theft under $1000, likely will no longer be prosecuted. Women might think twice before walking the streets alone in the New Kanada. Not safe. Expect it all tossed out. Except for distancing tickets.
The evidence now? First responders currently refuse to answer calls for anything but severe incidences. Full pay though. (Distancing infractions excluded, this is serious stuff you know)

– The State is weeding out the weak imo, most everywhere in Canada surgeries and preventative medicine is ended. Not to be crass but history repeats – do you recall there were two lines? : healthy people able to work were sent in one direction; the weak and old were send to another direction. I’m not kidding. This is the model. We all are at risk.

– Property owners have no rights, the State doesn’t care Renters can squat and destroy for free; property crime calls will no longer be answered. I expect that through taxation and new land use laws property rights will continue their errosion.

In short, read book 1984. This feels like a Grade 9 book report all over again

#82 kc on 05.09.20 at 5:33 pm

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.20 at 10:34 am

It’s tough admitting you’re not the “smartest person in the room”…

==================================

Don’t forget that it is usually the smartest people in the room that trigger both world wars and stock market crashes.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Smartest person in the room… LOL

There is a movie with that title… search it out… the fall of Enron….

Losers and the smarts alright….

We know how that ended… and if you were not around for that disaster…. read your history….

#83 TurnerNation on 05.09.20 at 5:46 pm

At the big box store today most were waiting outside the pickup zone in the -10 windchill. Double door wide open, cold everywhere.
A very pregnant woman came in and talked to staff. They sent her to wait outside in the frigid, hail starting.
A manager happened to walk by I said hey people are going to get sick standing out there, a pregnant women is out there too. To his credit he went outside and called her in to wait in the semi-warmth. (I’m the kind of guy who gives the respect earned.)
He made the right decision. Had he not I was on the verge of making a very bad but entirely justified one. Raising hell. Hey the courts are closed right?
Luckily most still have compassion. Go with it.
First they came for the women…and I did something.

#84 EI Claims on 05.09.20 at 5:58 pm

Heard an interesting thing today. All EI claims have been switched to CERB. First time ever that employees processing EI claims have no overtime.

Just wondered if anyone has heard the same?

Not sure what this means for claimants because in some cases they would be collecting more money on EI than what the CERB currently pays.

#85 Shawn on 05.09.20 at 6:11 pm

What if Covid19 is eventually shown epidemiologically to be nothing more than a severe flu season?

But because they were afraid of the unknown, governments decided to crush the brick and mortar economy thus compressing what would normally have been 10 years of digital adoption into 3 months.

What does this mean for equity market indexes and countries that are rich in technology and healthcare compared to those that are not?

What does this mean for traditional slow to innovate brick and mortar businesses going forward?

Uh oh.

#86 Drew Riedstra on 05.09.20 at 6:24 pm

If I had a $5 million cottage I’d be going up there any time I please. I wouldn’t have any interactions with others, why would I anyway?
However, I would by any supplies down here at home, now, next year, and forever. Yep, you get my taxes up there and that’s it…

#87 Joseph R. on 05.09.20 at 6:29 pm

#74 BrianT on 05.09.20 at 4:51 pm
#62Ryan-your response is not logical-if one has a negative perception of the public service that individual is not obliged to go to work for the public service or else shut up-it is very important that the public hold the public servants accountable in a democracy-everyone should have the right of free speech.

—————————————————————-

His answer is perfectly logical, Brian. Public workers are held accountable by their management who are, themselves, responsible to elected officials. Social studies are still part of the high school curriculum, as far as I know. They deserve respect and dignity, like any other worker. They don’t work for you, PERSONALLY.

Nobody is preventing you from running for public office.

#88 Shawn on 05.09.20 at 6:30 pm

… and in the meantime we went from restrictive FED and central bank policy to $10T+ in global stimulus.

Yet there is record cash on the sidelines and extreme fund flows into bonds.

Hmmm.

Yeah I don’t think most investors are positioned for what’s coming.

#89 theoryAndPractice on 05.09.20 at 6:50 pm

#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.09.20 at 10:29 am
——————
I recommend get a scissor and cut your cable to your TV, or throw it out of your window to street. if you are tech savvy and watching over internet, block the web pages you are getting your douse. You will feel better next day.

Start your treatment with this one, free of charge

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5rrFZgFEpo&list=PLEMVZmX54bvd_DajOm4w8WFC_vQc4WT2G

#90 theoryAndPractice on 05.09.20 at 7:03 pm

#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.09.20 at 10:29 am
#75 theoryAndPractice on 05.09.20 at 6:50 pm

Sorry forgot to mention that I don’t have a cottage !

#91 Nonplused on 05.09.20 at 7:23 pm

As we used to say back when I hung around trade floors: “Sell a teeny lose your wienie”. (Generally referred to selling deep out of the money calls for pennies. If something happens suddenly you are out way more than the premium.) In the old days the phrase was “he who sells what isn’t his’in, pays it back or goes to prison”. That was more about short-selling.

Brian Hunter’s trade was actually on storage spreads, not the natgas price itself. He’d do something like buy March and sell April, figuring he couldn’t lose much money that way. But what he didn’t realize was that he was throwing so much capital at what was basically a small market that his trades became self reinforcing. He was “painting the tape” whether he meant to do it or not. So eventually physical storage caught up with him. But the real fireworks started when another hedge fund and a couple New York banks decided this was nuts and traded heavily against him. Once they pushed the spreads back out of the stratosphere that’s when Brian’s book blew up.

If I have learned anything over my career, it is that things are very hard to predict, especially the future. And now we got the damn covid. Pandemics are “white swans”, we always knew they were out there. But they’ve never shut down an economy before. I think it is dangerous. There may be a “black swan” lurking out there that this pushes to the fore. We’ll see. I’m thinking it’ll take the form of a deflationary collapse in debt followed by high inflation in the cost of living. It’ll be like 2008, only worse and more widespread. We can’t continue to run the economy on government borrowing without the associated productivity forever. Money will be devalued, but that won’t save the indebted who don’t have jobs. They still have to pay it back.

I think this whole experiment in the government borrowing huge sums of money to pay people not to work, whether we had no choice or not, is going to lead to unforeseen consequences. Can they raise taxes down the road? I’ve argued before that we are already at peak tax, and that will be especially so if the recovery, should there be one, is prolonged. So that isn’t the way out. But something has to give.

And nobody knows what the full affect this thing is going to have on supply chains just yet. But every day the news gets worse an more and more things get added to the list of “hard to find” items. Even reopening restaurants, even if they take out half the tables, seems difficult when Costco, Wendy’s, and McDonald’s can’t get enough meat now. How is this really going to work? How can you open a pub when the breweries have been shut down for months? Who has money to buy a new RV or ATV? Or even a new car that they don’t need because nobody is driving? Who is going back to flying or cruising anytime soon? How long will Disney Land be closed? How long will the US and China continue to blame each other for the crisis? I guess we are going to find out.

#92 cristian on 05.09.20 at 7:24 pm

#6 TurnerNation on 05.09.20 at 10:45 am

Woowww .. this is also what I am afraid of .. trust me .. I came here from East Europe and was born under communism … I hope I am wrong and people wake up … otherwise we are in trouble .. anyway all taxes will go sky high nevertheless .. and all our liberties go kaboom !

#93 Lost...but not leased on 05.09.20 at 7:35 pm

#77 kc on 05.09.20 at 5:23 pm
59 Lost…but not leased on 05.09.20 at 3:37 pm

THANKS!!! pre- this you know how hard it is now… word came down today… it is terminal.

You were able to say good bye in person. Count your blessings.

thanks.

cheers

====================

Sadly…no I wasn’t….

My Dad was in Hospice…went to visit him…he was dead…records show was dosed up with morphine 10 minutes earlier.

My Mom died alone in a seniors home…was notified while out of town.

With COVID 19…its another cruel variable. Its your personal judgement call on how determined one is re: visitation restrictions.

The epitaph for this “new era” will be how cheap and disposable life has become.

#94 Nonplused on 05.09.20 at 7:36 pm

#2 Karen on 05.09.20 at 10:29 am

COTTAGERS PICK A HOME AND STAY PLEASE STOP TRAVELLING

———————-

They will, and it will be the cottage. And there won’t be anything you can do about it unless you want to spend some time in a covid friendly jail and ruin all your future employment opportunities.

The economy of cottage country has always consisted of subdividing and selling the land, building the cottages, and selling goods and services to the cottagers, and them paying their property taxes. Well guess what? Now the bill is coming due. This is no time for your heart to turn cold. Besides, they will social distance, they are good at that by now, so no worries. Just stay away from them if you are that worried.

#95 Ronaldo on 05.09.20 at 7:37 pm

Graduation 2020.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=_xp1ldLS8KY

#96 IHCTD9 on 05.09.20 at 7:43 pm

#87 Joseph R. on 05.09.20 at 6:29 pm

Nobody is preventing you from running for public office.
——

Everyone should be trying to get a govy job in this Country going forward. Got two extended family members who made the switch years ago. Both now make 150k plus pushing paper around, they say laughing “it’s double the pay for half the work”. Both are sitting at home with 100% full pay as I type, and they openly hope it lasts forever.

Way better deal than other family members who work in the private sector. There are pretty much zero similarities between public and private compensations. Not even freaking close.

Both got in because they each knew someone, both get unbelievable DB pensions, benefits, holidays, and job security out the wazoo.

It’s why I’m gently guiding my kids towards public sector work. It just keeps getting juicier, and juicier with no end in sight. Once they’re in, no worries – ever. The gravy train won’t end until the IMF is called in.

#97 kc on 05.09.20 at 7:46 pm

93 Lost…but not leased on 05.09.20 at 7:35 pm

Sadly…no I wasn’t….

XXXXXXXXXXXX

So sorry to hear this ….

New reality or new normal, still a hard pill to swallow….

thanks

#98 Nonplused on 05.09.20 at 7:52 pm

#48 Trading stocks on 05.09.20 at 2:00 pm
I am curious for every trade there is a buying and a seller
So if someone lost 6 billion someone made 6 billion?

————————-

This is more or less true but only occurs “on the margin”. Things get marked or priced based on the last settle (what the exchange considers reflective of end of day trading). So for example your shanty in Vancouver is worth $1.8 million because that is what the neighbor got last month for theirs when they finally bailed on the termite infested death trap. But when the buyers disappear and you can’t sell the value becomes truly “notional”.

Remember folks, you haven’t made a profit until you sell (or collect a dividend of some sort).

#99 Linda on 05.09.20 at 7:55 pm

#74 ‘Brian T’ – attacking someone’s pension plan isn’t holding them accountable for their actions. It is spite, pure & simple. As both Ryan & Joseph noted. The ‘right to free speech’ should not be used as an excuse to denigrate others, which unfortunately all too many members of ‘the public’ do when dealing with anyone perceived to be a ‘public servant’.

#100 CJohnC on 05.09.20 at 7:58 pm

#84 EI Claims on 05.09.20 at 5:58 pm

Where have you been? They announced exactly that (all EI would be converted to CERB for the duration of CERB) on day 1.

#101 CJohnC on 05.09.20 at 8:03 pm

TurnerNation

Has there ever been a conspiracy theory you didn’t like? You must have a very large collection of tin foil hats.

Congratulations on your compassion for the pregnant lady and for speaking up. It was the right thing to do for sure.

#102 Ronaldo on 05.09.20 at 8:05 pm

#42 Toronto_CA on 05.09.20 at 1:36 pm
“The end of cheap charter flights to Mexico, for sure.
But many people still will want and have to fly.
They will pay a good Schilling to do so.
Be ready to shell out more for goods and services.”

___________

Want to fly? People will, but the majority don’t want to go get a haircut, nevermind travel to a scary foreign land where they don’t have health insurance and could be quarantined against their will. The risk is so small it may as not exist, but in their heads it is giant.

As for “have to fly” – that would be business travel, and the longer the world goes on without people phyiscally travelling, I would say that goes down in demand to the point of cratering.

If airlines jack up the price, they will not entice demand except for the very small minority of super rich or super desperate. And that isn’t going to pay the bills.

People will pay a premium, but they won’t pay 20x what they did in February 2020.
—————————————————————-
So why is Boeing planning to build more 737 Maxes. What do they know that we don’t.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-737max/boeing-expects-to-start-737-max-production-in-may-fox-business-news-idUSKBN22K1ZH

#103 John in Mtl on 05.09.20 at 8:06 pm

@ #6 TurnerNation on 05.09.20 at 10:45 am

I think you should move to North Korea, you’ll be very comfortable there.

Garth sure is a patient man, to let you be a regular guest here.

#104 not 1st on 05.09.20 at 8:10 pm

Silly AIMCo, Everybody knows if you want to play the derivatives you buy JPM stock then if it goes south the fed reserve bails you out.

Justin wont bail out an Ab company.

So much for an AB administered CPP program.

#105 TRUMP HAS COVID! (Coming Soon) on 05.09.20 at 8:13 pm

Holy crap!

Now Fauci and the CDC head honcho have it too and are in quarantine – Yikes!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/politics/robert-redfield-cdc-director-self-quarantine/index.html

Trump and Pence both dead in two months?

I give it a 60% chance now.

#106 Ronaldo on 05.09.20 at 8:25 pm

#71 majik on 05.09.20 at 4:40 pm
#42 Toronto_CA on 05.09.20 at 1:36 pm
“As for “have to fly” – that would be business travel, and the longer the world goes on without people phyiscally travelling, I would say that goes down in demand to the point of cratering.”

——————————

The “have to fly” will not be business. The first sector to restart in commercial aviation will be family/friends travel. Repatriation flights are the tip of that iceberg. Families have now had enforced separation for over two months, longer in some other cases. The first upswing for aviation will come from that sector followed by leisure travel and lastly business travel.
—————————————————————-
I wonder if Airlines will look at cancelling the air miles programs after this is all said and done? Something to think about. I lost 85000 points when Air Canada and Canadian Airlines merged in 2001. I had retired in 2000 and had not used any airmiles for a year. After the merger I get a letter stating that since I had not used any airmiles within a one year period and therefore the balance of airmiles cancelled. Tried to reason with them but they wouldn’t budge. I have not flown with Air Canada since. Westjet all the way.

#107 TRUMP HAS COVID! (Coming Soon) on 05.09.20 at 8:33 pm

And now the head of the FDA is in quarantine too!

Wowza!

#108 Anthony on 05.09.20 at 8:52 pm

#36 Yukon Elvis
“I have cpp,oas, rrsp,tfsa,market account, 3 db pensions, and cash. I own my home and have no debt. Out of all that only ccp/oas are pretty much golden.”

The paid off house is golden. You have to live somewhere, who cares if it falls in value, it’s shelter, a necessity.

This blog has trained too many people to discount the value of owning your own home. So many here brag about renting, it’s crazy.

#109 TurnerNation on 05.09.20 at 8:55 pm

I actually support global commerce. Why not. Specialization of countries. But This country is not allowed that. We (used to ) specialize in oil & gas. They took that away, maybe the crown will be given to Russia or Saudi

Cheap flights to Mexico? Aero Mexico Toronto to Cancun in June. Chose Saturdays on their web site. $630 CAD all in return.
I know several people raring to fly. Mexico, Vegas.

(Once again an entire blog and no one reports any personal or familial or friend fallout from the virus.)

#110 ImGonnaBeSick on 05.09.20 at 9:04 pm

#91 Nonplused on 05.09.20 at 7:23 pm

—-

Disney Shanghai sold out in minutes. I wouldn’t underestimate people’s desire to live and spend money. I can’t wait to see the Stones at half capacity.

#111 Dr V on 05.09.20 at 9:08 pm

11 trexx – the CPP has a few $100B in assets so they are bound to have some “outside the box” acquisitions.
I think they own infrastructure like airports as well. I
don’t fault them for it, as long as the riskier ones only
comprise a small percentage of the holdings.

https://wwd.com/business-news/retail/neiman-marcus-group-headed-for-bankruptcy-1203546330/

Consider the converse of holding government of Canada debt. Maybe not overdo that position either….

#112 TurnerNation on 05.09.20 at 9:11 pm

#103 John in Mtl all my posts link to the economy and commerce and its consumers. This is financial blog. Capitalism is good remember? It’s what I do.
Maybe yourself and the Stay away from the Cottage guy could start your own blog.

#113 Buy plexiglass on 05.09.20 at 9:17 pm

https://linkin.bio/interestingengineering

Pod restaurants….

#114 Dr V on 05.09.20 at 9:19 pm

2 CSTHA – well that was toned down a little.

from fartzies link at 4

“Phil Harding, mayor of Muskoka Lakes Township, who grew up summering in Muskoka before settling in the area full time, said he knows how divisive the issue is and has had harsh feedback from all sides.

He wants visitors and tourists to stay away — but doesn’t consider seasonal property owners visitors; they’re residents and he wants all residents, year-round or seasonal, to be able to attend their property.

“We’re really not open to tourism,” said Harding. “But the locals need the seasonal residents to survive. We need to work as one and respect each other.”

He urged residents to not consider this a typical Victoria Day long weekend and to limit their exposure: “Don’t think of it as a holiday weekend. It’s an isolation weekend.” ”

Now doesn’t this approach seem quite reasonable?

#115 Wrk.dover on 05.09.20 at 9:21 pm

#36 Yukon Elvis
“I have cpp,oas, rrsp,tfsa,market account, 3 db pensions, and cash. I own my home and have no debt. Out of all that only ccp/oas are pretty much golden.”

————————————–

A long time ago I said here, hold out for the bigger CPP in case currency resets and you will be eligible for more of the new scrip when all else has failed.

That idea was poo pooed. Obviously.

Rickards book about Wiemar Republic might be a fun reread. Sell the the farm in spring to raise cash, buyer will sell the crops come fall for the same figure. Oof!

#116 Dr V on 05.09.20 at 9:30 pm

108 Anthony

“This blog has trained too many people to discount the
value of owning your own home. So many here brag
about renting, it’s crazy.”

You’ll find a lot of homeowners on this blog Anthony.
A home certainly provides shelter, and can be at least a
partial inflation hedge. At some times though it makes no sense to buy a home, particularly when you require mobility in your work, or when the costs are unjustifiably high. The premise of this blog is to not put all your eggs in that one basket, and over leverage to get it.

#117 S.Bby on 05.09.20 at 9:35 pm

Government jobs:
Service Canada employees who walked off the job during their fellow citizens time of crisis and greatest need ? Well done !

#118 Cristian on 05.09.20 at 9:45 pm

Actually it’s a 4 billion loss apparently…

#119 John in Mtl on 05.09.20 at 9:47 pm

@ #112 TurnerNation on 05.09.20 at 9:11 pm
…”This is financial blog.”

Yep, this is a financial blog,
NOT A GLOBALIST AGENDA BLOG.

#120 mark on 05.09.20 at 9:53 pm

Yep. If you did the same thing over and over and over and over and over and over… ok you get the point. Do that each month something like dumping your coin into MSCI world equivalent at probably 10bps and forgetting about it, you’d outdo nearly everyone by sheer avoidance of mistakes.

You only have to read the comment section here. Experts telling you what they think will happen next. All mistakes waiting to happen.

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.20 at 10:00 pm

Hmmm

101 year old Army and Navy stores packing it in.
Apparently Covid-1984 shut down was the final nail in the coffin.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/covid-19-vancouvers-army-navy-closing-permanently

Prepare for more stories like this in the coming months…..

#122 JP on 05.09.20 at 10:02 pm

“ Lastly, don’t just assume your pension, whether it’s private or public, is 100% safe and is going to be there when you need it. ”

– the further ones pension is from the people printing the currency it is denominated in, the less secure it is.

Risk management to me implies we can control the risk – long tail events tend to prove otherwise. I prefer to view it as risk impact mitigation.

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.20 at 10:04 pm

@#108 Anthony
“The paid off house is golden. You have to live somewhere, who cares if it falls in value, it’s shelter, a necessity.”
+++

Apparently you have learned nothing here.
You can rent a shelter…. you dont “need” to own it.

#124 Stock Pig on 05.09.20 at 10:20 pm

DELETED

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.20 at 10:30 pm

#40 Figure it Out on 05.09.20 at 1:27 pm
“The end of cheap charter flights to Mexico, for sure.”

Reading this made me look up the USD-MXP exchange rate. That and cheap fuel may well mean MORE cheap vacation packages. Countries like Mexico can’t afford to pass on tourism dollars.
—————–
Let’s assume you’re right.
Would you fly?

#126 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.20 at 10:39 pm

#62 Ryan Lewenza on 05.09.20 at 3:48 pm
JSS “I live in Alberta. 2/3 of Albertans would love nothing else than to watch its public sector see their pension blow up. There’s lots of jealousy because they have a pension and the rest of us don’t. Even though public sector employees pay around half into it. The government will likely ruin it (on purpose) in order to make their base happy.”

I’ve never understood peoples disdain for public sector workers and their pensions. First, the “public sector” is not just some bureaucrat collecting a government pay cheque. Like I said, it’s nurses, teachers, police etc. The people keeping us safe, educating our kids and preparing them for the world, and taking care of us when we’re most vulnerable. They are everyday heroes in my book so I don’t know why, as you claim, 2/3rds of Albertans would want their pensions to blow up. Second, nothing is stopping you or anyone else from getting a public sector job and collecting that pension you so much despise. So I disagree with almost everything you said. – Ryan L
—————-
Good points, Ryan.
Take note: Fartz.

#127 Sail Away on 05.09.20 at 10:50 pm

#105 TRUMP HAS COVID! (Coming Soon) on 05.09.20 at 8:13 pm

Holy crap!

Now Fauci and the CDC head honcho have it too and are in quarantine – Yikes!

Trump and Pence both dead in two months?

I give it a 60% chance now.

———————

Don’t get your hopes up. Everyone gets this flu… then gets better. No biggie.

#128 YouKnowWho on 05.09.20 at 11:15 pm

#76 WAKEUP

I used to think this as well. And what you say of course does hold true, the final choice is with the individual.

However, you have to respect the effort, resources, capital they are battling with only their will power.

Consider that a food company will hire hundreds of scientists to research compounds that have no taste or smell you can perceive – it’s all for subliminal addiction.

Consider they buy real estate. Consider they squeeze out local/healthy/independent restaurants. Consider how they can afford premium locations. Consider how many independent restaurants have drive-thru. Consider how many have the footprint and visibility. Consider how many of those fast food places you drive by each day. How easy it is to make that choice.

Consider these chains know that sugar, fat, salt triggers our satisfaction – so they give us what we want. Consider that the independents have to compete against these places – and so the independents are driving toward the same sugar/salt/fat formula – because they can’t fight it

So yes, I agree with you – it is on the individual. But that individual is fighting a war against nearly limitless resources. Single person against tens, hundreds, thousands of individuals trying to make them stuff the food, sugar, cigarette, alcohol into their body.

Not such a fair battle anymore, is it? How can the individual win? Increasingly so more and more are picked off, and so we get fatter and fatter more and more of us.

#129 Aidan Gannon on 05.10.20 at 12:07 am

The public service pensions managed by AIMCo are backstopped by the provincial government. So they are as close to 100% safe as anything in this world.

#130 VicPaul on 05.10.20 at 12:54 am

#99 Linda on 05.09.20 at 7:55 pm
#74 ‘Brian T’ – attacking someone’s pension plan isn’t holding them accountable for their actions. It is spite, pure & simple.

*********

Absolutely correct – thank you for pointing this out Linda. )

#62 Ryan Lewenza on 05.09.20 at 3:48 pm
JSS “I live in Alberta. 2/3 of Albertans would love nothing else than to watch its public sector see their pension blow up.
*****
I’ve never understood peoples disdain for public sector workers and their pensions. First, the “public sector” is not just some bureaucrat collecting a government pay cheque. Like I said, it’s nurses, teachers, police etc. The people keeping us safe, educating our kids and preparing them for the world, and taking care of us when we’re most vulnerable. They are everyday heroes in my book so I don’t know why, as you claim, 2/3rds of Albertans would want their pensions to blow up. Second, nothing is stopping you or anyone else from getting a public sector job and collecting that pension you so much despise. So I disagree with almost everything you said. – Ryan L

Ryan –
Lastly, don’t just assume your pension, whether it’s private or public, is 100% safe and is going to be there when you need it.

*********

So true -never take for granted…gratefully, ours is 102.6% funded and two years ago, we reduced the employer’s (and our) % of payroll yearly contributions. Yep, proper management saving the people’s money.

M56BC

#131 Shark Boy on 05.10.20 at 1:04 am

#98 Non, ‘settled’ is where a market maker of whichever firm has contract with a particular issuer to manage the flow , with a ‘D License’ matches any overhang at the end of every day. The price is never settled in advance until the floor is cleared.

Margin accounts will be pilfered when unmet and that also creates surplus for those floor traders who might see arbitrage through an obvious momentum trade on Level 2 building for the following day.

The guys who know can offer ‘stink bids’ knowing that they can snack on any panicked buyers with unfilled market orders. Yes, for every buyer there is a seller. There is always multiplicity, it’s rarely ‘one buyer one seller’, almost never.

Only the Trudeau’s of the world imagine that ‘the budget will balance itself’. That’s not the way things work in the real world.

Another reality, lawyers are smart, they know how things work. Just like traders and the multitude of specialists who work in the finance know how to work the system. Screwing the little is a full time job for some.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/lawyer-eviction-stalled-covid-1.5550804

So, here’s an example of a lawyer who knows how to screw a little guy and won’t pay his rent. He’s a serial non payer because he knows he doesn’t have to.
He screws one guy after another and never gets called on it.

Why? Because there is a system in place where in reality the bureaucrats don’t give a crap about the law, they only take care of themselves. Trudeau’s Security Council Sear gambit is a glaring example of that.

Trudeau knows he never has to answer for the billions he spends on what amounts to bribes and publicity. You think it isn’t fair? Then you don’t know how the system is rigged. It’s ‘sharks and fish’ , and if you’re not a shark, your food. There’s no middle ground. It’s what our system is based on.

#132 Gary on 05.10.20 at 1:18 am

Capitalism is dead the .governments killed it.
In Alberta I can buy POT, Alcohol, but my Naturopath Doctor is closed, he pays 5000.00 per month rent and not seemed a essential service. He might retire, there goes four jobs.

#133 Blacksheep on 05.10.20 at 1:58 am

Dr John Campbell on Vitamin D.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bga_qG30JyY

#134 Al on 05.10.20 at 3:16 am

If the backer of the pension can print the hard currency it’s based on, is that 100% or as close as one can get?

#135 SoggyShorts on 05.10.20 at 5:40 am

#83 PBrasseur on 05.09.20 at 5:47 pm
100% stocks with enough cash to live on for a couple of years.

Couldn’t be happier with my strategy.
*********
Really? I hate it.
Your gut didn’t wrench even once this year? I was in knots.

#136 BillyBob on 05.10.20 at 7:12 am

#62 Ryan Lewenza on 05.09.20 at 3:48 pm

I’ve never understood peoples disdain for public sector workers and their pensions. First, the “public sector” is not just some bureaucrat collecting a government pay cheque. Like I said, it’s nurses, teachers, police etc. The people keeping us safe, educating our kids and preparing them for the world, and taking care of us when we’re most vulnerable. They are everyday heroes in my book so I don’t know why, as you claim, 2/3rds of Albertans would want their pensions to blow up. Second, nothing is stopping you or anyone else from getting a public sector job and collecting that pension you so much despise. So I disagree with almost everything you said. – Ryan L

=================================================

With respect, credibility suffers when someone in finance claims they “can’t understand the disdain” much of the private sector has for the public sector. I’m not an MBA but I would have thought the correlations between profit motive, efficiency, accountability would be covered somewhere in business school?

This will naturally breed contempt (and the hilarious cynicism I enjoy from IHCTD9) from those who don’t enjoy the relative security of governmental perks towards those who do. Unless you’re suggesting that the government employ every citizen – I think that was tried in the USSR? – your “surprise” at the phenomena is…odd.

My own brother-in-law is an anomaly in his little suburban hell-de-sac in Victoria. All of his neighbours are mid-level bureaucrats in provincial government. He’s a top manager in a private foodservices company and is still working full-time, for which he is grateful. But it does give him pause for thought when he sees his neighbours outside cheerfully mowing their grass, enjoying their time off with their families on full pay while he heads to the office to lay off several more of his staff. The contrast simply is impossible to ignore in the absurdity of its size. Full salary to do nothing isn’t really an option for private companies, yet shouldn’t be questioned for public ones?

Lest you think this is simple envy, I have family members who work in such roles as nurse and Customs officer, friends who are doctors and serve in the military. The disdain is not for the vital services provided, it’s for the attitude of arrogant entitlement and disconnect from economic reality regularly and prominently displayed from many in the public sector unions. Couple that with an uneven quality of service delivery – trying to be kind here – and much of the contempt is well-deserved. Yes, such attitudes exist in private-sector unions. But such disregard of the “customer base” in the private sector actually has consequences.

My aforementioned family/friends have ascended rapidly in their professions as they shun this mindset but they find themselves a lonely minority and at odds with their colleagues’ worldview much of the time.

I would like to believe that the economic fallout imposed by blowing up the deficit by a factor of 10 might finally impose some constraints on the Canadian public sector. But I have my doubts.

When taxation explodes, and the benefits for the public sector are sustained while the private sector massively contracts, expect the discontent to continue – and increase. At least the virus is shining a light on the disparity.

#137 Sail Away on 05.10.20 at 7:41 am

#128 YouKnowWho on 05.09.20 at 11:15 pm

Re: Fast food, sugar, salt

But damn that fast food is tasty! When I go fishing/hunting/camping for a weekend, my standard food allotment is around 8 sandwiches from any of the chains. No cooking, no cleaning, no fiddling around. Just unwrap and enjoy.

Then a few more fresh off the griddle on the drive home.

We live in magical times.

#138 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.10.20 at 7:42 am

#96 IHCTD9 on 05.09.20 at 7:43 pm sez:
“#87 Joseph R. on 05.09.20 at 6:29 pm

Nobody is preventing you from running for public office.
——

Everyone should be trying to get a govy job in this Country going forward. Got two extended family members who made the switch years ago. Both now make 150k plus pushing paper around, they say laughing “it’s double the pay for half the work”. Both are sitting at home with 100% full pay as I type, and they openly hope it lasts forever.

Way better deal than other family members who work in the private sector. There are pretty much zero similarities between public and private compensations. Not even freaking close.

Both got in because they each knew someone, both get unbelievable DB pensions, benefits, holidays, and job security out the wazoo.

It’s why I’m gently guiding my kids towards public sector work. It just keeps getting juicier, and juicier with no end in sight. Once they’re in, no worries – ever. The gravy train won’t end until the IMF is called in.”
————————————————-
LOL. Are you writing a work of fiction? Puh-leeze.

If you don’t mind, please provide the level of gov’t these “extended family members” work for (municipal, provincial, federal), their level of employment (front line, middle, upper management), and a general idea of what type of work they do.

Lastly, please provide me with their IQ profiles because no actual gov’t employee at the level that makes $150k PA is anywhere near stupid enough to state what you attribute to them.

Thanks.

#139 Sail Away on 05.10.20 at 7:58 am

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.20 at 10:30 pm
#40 Figure it Out on 05.09.20 at 1:27 pm

Reading this made me look up the USD-MXP exchange rate. That and cheap fuel may well mean MORE cheap vacation packages. Countries like Mexico can’t afford to pass on tourism dollars.

——————

Let’s assume you’re right.
Would you fly?

——————-

Only if I wanted to get somewhere.

We live in a fantastic place with boundless outdoor activities, so generally people come to visit us on the plantation during summer rather than vice versa.

We do go to Hawaii a time or two each winter. Takes an awfully long time to sail there, so yes, we’ll happily fly.

Oh, you mean am I scared of the flu? No. Not even slightly. My strict adherence to fast food and avoidance of all faddish vitamins and diets keeps my immune system in order.

#140 Sail Away on 05.10.20 at 8:09 am

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.20 at 10:04 pm
@#108 Anthony

“The paid off house is golden. You have to live somewhere, who cares if it falls in value, it’s shelter, a necessity.”

—————–

Apparently you have learned nothing here.
You can rent a shelter…. you dont “need” to own it.

—————–

True, but when you own it, you can make it your favourite place to be. Sort of permanent luxury vacation. And where else would 3 bird dogs and pigeon coop be welcome? Or my 7am power tool habit?

#141 Cottagers - come on up! on 05.10.20 at 8:45 am

Dysart et al (Haliburton County) is welcoming cottagers for the long weekend!
———————————————————–
Dysart et al mayor says come up to your cottage and get your chores done!
https://www.dysartetal.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Mayors-message.pdf

#142 the Jaguar on 05.10.20 at 8:47 am

This yakking about people being warned to stay away from their cottages is amusing. Like the old fart who yelled at Garth to stop walking his dog. ‘Stay the blazes off the streets with your dog!’. If I owned a cottage in Ontario I would pick up my groceries before I left the city and head straight for the cottage. As Trudeau 1 said, ‘Just watch me’.
As for Black Swans, don’t give up on China pulling that rabbit or black swan out of its hat just yet. The repercussions of this current debacle could be impactful. Regime preservation is number one on the agenda of the CCP, but the natives are growing restless, and trust with world partners has taken a torpedo on the starboard side. We know how that worked out for the Titanic, once considered ‘unsinkable’.

Ryan, about hubris and these cases you sited where gazillions were lost…..where was ‘oversight’? How could one individual play so fast and loose without somebody being responsible for the investment review?

#143 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.10.20 at 8:49 am

Here’s an analogy for you. I’ll call it the Cauliflower Caper.

Suzy Smart Shopper™ is at the grocery store, observing all the rules. Social distancing, mask, gloves, the whole 9 yards. Suzy goes in, grabs a cart and proceeds to the vegetable aisle. Spying a cauliflower she likes, she picks it up. She doesn’t like it and puts it back and grabs a different one, then moves on. Right behind her (social distancing, of course) is Becky Bargain Hunter. She goes to get a cauliflower, picks up the one Suzy rejected, and puts in in her cart. Eventually her shopping is done and she goes to the checkout, where the properly PPE’d employee scans it and puts it in a bag. Becky then brings it to Granny Gert and leaves it on her porch, where Granny picks up the cauliflower and puts it in her fridge.

So far, so good right? Not so fast. Before Suzy Smart Shopper put her gloves on, she touched the door handle as she entered the building. That door handle had the virus on it. That virus got on the gloves, on the cauliflower wrapping, on anyone who happened to touch that cauliflower if they couldn’t absolutely avoid the natural human behaviour of touching their face.

All it takes is one minor slip of protocol along the way and viola Granny Gert has Covid without seeing anyone.

Simply put, there are too many points of failure. This is why the lockdown is useless unless it’s 100% total and complete. And since we’re human, and at minimum we have to eat, that scenario is impossible.

#144 Ace Goodheart on 05.10.20 at 9:04 am

RE: #2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.09.20 at 10:29 am:

The mayor of the municipality where our cottage is located, is a real estate agent.

He sells cottages.

Earlier this year, he was telling all the cottagers “stay away”.

It then became known that he was also having people up from the City to show them cottages that he was selling.

He has since changed his tune.

There are a lot of double standards going on in regard to cottages right now.

The small town located about 1/2 hr drive from our cottage, is full of snow birds. They are all slowly flocking back from the sunny south, to self isolate for two weeks in their condos.

Of course, these people are vehemently opposed to anyone who has spent the winter in Toronto, coming up to enjoy a weekend at the cottage.

We might overwhelm their health care system, now that they are back from Florida.

#145 Dharma Bum on 05.10.20 at 9:24 am

#28 Crush the Curve

We ain’t winning yet in canada…..
——————————————————————-
No, but THIS GUY IS!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QS0q3mGPGg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ib3Y-Q3QnOk

#146 Dharma Bum on 05.10.20 at 9:32 am

Show’s over folks.

Time for everyone to go BACK TO WORK.

Then, on your days off GO UP TO COTTAGE COUNTRY.

Suck it up, all you cowering petrified wimps. Grow a pair.

#147 TurnerNation on 05.10.20 at 9:45 am

#119 John in Mtl they shut down the economy, GLOBALLY, plunging untold #s into poverty, despair and government dependence. Took only a few weeks
Every country used the same script. There was no vote, no debate.
When has the entire globe before been locked down? This is what GLOBALISTS do when they are rolling out a GLOBAL plan? Clear?

#148 Jay Murray on 05.10.20 at 9:50 am

Forgive them they know not what they do….. Ryan, why would you ascribe AIMCO’s biblical scale folly to an “analyst or portfolio manager”? Seems like you are letting the big boys with the big egos off the hook…..even in the unlikely event that a junior made a bad bet, What sort of fund allows such lax governance that bets of that size can be made by the little people. This is a miscalculation of epic proportion.

#149 Aimco on 05.10.20 at 9:50 am

It’s shows the ignorance of people there are so many incorrect posts and fake news and opinions made by just plain stupid people on here about Aimco, did anyone bother to read Their report? How much assets they have?
So they lost 4 billion that’s less than 4 percent of assets they made 11.6 billion the previous year. Get a grip. Not one person mentioned this because they were to busy yapping about the government backstopping yawn.

And as far as golden pensions, remember all you people out there have a chance to put up to 20 percent of your money into RRSPs and build wealth you have TFSA mines worth 130,000 plus up 7 percent since December. But you’re all too busy spending money and don’t save and then cry because you don’t have a pension. The government has given you all the tools to save for your retirement. So suck it up. Either you save for retirement or you don’t. But don’t complain.

#150 Gruff403 on 05.10.20 at 9:55 am

Retired Alberta Teacher. Became a teacher because I wanted to make a difference with kids. Pension was a bonus which I had no idea existed until started receiving statements. Very grateful for. Traded higher salary potential in private sector for job security and a job I loved doing for 29 years. How many private businesses turned my money away when I bought their wares? None. I know a few O&G pensions substantially better then mine. You made your bed-sleep in it.
Re: AIMCO. Alberta Teachers are furious that their pensions are being forced into the AIMCO fund. Our pension is 96% fully funded and contribution rates just dropped. 75%+ of a pension payout is from the growth of the pension and not contributions. Moving to AIMCO adds our $18 B to their $110 B which is backstopped by Province. That move may increase the funds long term stability. Teachers real beef is how the move was done. Kenny said he wouldn’t consider touching CPP without a Provincial referendum but didn’t hesitate to take ours without any cause. It was doing fine. If this is such a great deal for teachers why not explain the advantages and let teachers decide through their own referendum?
My MLA can’t answer that question.

#151 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 10:02 am

@#126 Ponzie Plot
“Second, nothing is stopping you or anyone else from getting a public sector job”
+++

I wouldnt last 1 day as a public “servant”.
I like to work and the mindset of the majority of the bureaucrats I have had the misfortune to deal with on a daily, weekly and monthly basis is mind numbing.

Lazy, stupid, arrogant and driven to underachieve are but of the few reasons I have repeatedly put forth.
Perhaps its their “jobs for life” that entrenched their attitude of invulnerability ? Who’s to say.
But , times are changing .
If other commenters on here are any indication….I’m not alone in my thinking that years of sloth should be rewarded with a fat, juicy, tax payer guaranteed pension.

Lets see the next union contract negotiations where the Nurses( insert heroes here) will get generous wage concessions and the currently out of work ( fully paid) teachers will expect the same……

More for Me me me seems to be the govt employee union mantra these days.
Lets face it. You dont become a union president by being a reasonable, thoughtful person.
Get as much as you can for your “brothers” and screw everyone else.
And with Trudeau spending us all into bankruptcy….
The govt will have no option but to tax and recoup all that moolah.
Prepare your selves, rich, smug ex govt employee pensioners…..
The govt giveth and the govt taketh away … :)
Dont blame me when the money taps run dry.

#152 Ryan Lewenza on 05.10.20 at 10:06 am

the Jaguar “Ryan, about hubris and these cases you sited where gazillions were lost…..where was ‘oversight’? How could one individual play so fast and loose without somebody being responsible for the investment review?”

The lack of oversight in part stems from greed and a poor understanding of these products. These strategies work until they don’t and I’m sure AIMCO was very happy initially collecting all those premiums each month or year. This then leads to hubris and taking on bigger bets until bam, it all goes wrong, and then they realize in hindsight that this was just a ticking time bomb. So it’s a function of human psychology, a lack of understanding, and not having rigorous risk controls. – Ryan L

#153 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 10:10 am

@#140 Sail Oy-Veh
“True, but when you own it, you can make it your favourite place to be. Sort of permanent luxury vacation. And where else would 3 bird dogs and pigeon coop be welcome?”
++++

Well, we were talking “shelter”, not Man Cave or nirvana.
Ok I’l bite.
I have one friend who rents a 5 bedroom house, has 3 kids, 2 dogs and a garage fully outfitted as a second workshop for side jobs.
The landlord cuts the grass, fixes the roof, changes the water heater, etc etc etc.
All for $2200/month.
Shelter…check
Nice house…check
Rent less than mortgage….check.
Hells Angels set up a clubhouse next door you can move in 30 days…..check.

#154 To the Cauliflower guy on 05.10.20 at 10:13 am

The numbers don’t add up to your cauliflower caper, just more fear stories or stupid not sure which I have not had my coffee yet.
Based on your analysis everyone who touches anything gets the virus.
That’s why it’s called wash your hands and don’t touch your face.
As I have said many times 5.1 million people live in BC and what 2,300 got it. I guess not to many people touch door knobs? And before you quote stats from other countries it’s about as valid without any analysis as your stupid cauliflower story.
And yes I forgot all those asymptomatic people lurking out there touching door handles.
I would be more worried about what happens in some of those farmers fields with something called chemical spray to kill the bugs.
Have a great weekend as I use my elbow to open doors. Opps that does not work as we bump elbows now instead of hand shakes. Okay I will push the door open with my toes opps we also do toe bumps but wait you walk all over the floor where all those droplets fell. Then did you sterilize your shoes before walking into the house?
127 died in BC and some people are now doing the math how many died because of missed surgeries and missed emergency visits. And just so you know 3,000 people die naturally in BC a month. Oh I forgot because no one is driving so car fatalities are down which screws up the stats.
So 6 to 9 month normal waiting list for surgeries now bumped up to over two years now ask yourself how many more people will die waiting?? Probably more than eat cauliflower.

#155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 10:17 am

@#132 Gary
“he pays 5000.00 per month rent and not seemed a essential service. He might retire, there goes four jobs.”
++++

Unfortunately there will be thousands of stories like this…..and full protected, govt employees will not shed one tear…..until the lost tax revenue forces layoffs in the public sector.
Enjoy working in the real world my entitled ones, no pensions, minimal benefits, and supervisors that can actually give you shit without a union grievance and HR jumping on their backs….
The silver lining to the economic storm that approaches.
There is a God.

#156 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 10:21 am

@#143 Bytor
“All it takes is one minor slip of protocol along the way and viola Granny Gert has Covid without seeing anyone…”

+++++
yep.
I started wearing latex gloves back in Mid March when the warnings went up.
People were smirking at me at the grocery store…
Those same people are now wearing masks….but no gloves……?
As they touch the door handle, pick up a basket, handle produce on sale, push the bank card reader buttons, touch the door handle………

This Fall flu season should be a zinger.

#157 Bobby Bittman on 05.10.20 at 10:30 am

“The hedge fund ran an arbitrage strategy, trying to find inefficiencies in the market and then using a lot of leverage on top of it.”

“……..requiring a $3.5 billion government bailout.”

That bailout wasn’t required. And neither were any of the many subsequent bailouts of the financial industry.

Bailouts in this context is defined as stealing from citizens.

#158 FYI on 05.10.20 at 10:30 am

@#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.20 at 10:04 pm
@#108 Anthony
“The paid off house is golden. You have to live somewhere, who cares if it falls in value, it’s shelter, a necessity.”
+++

Apparently you have learned nothing here.
You can rent a shelter…. you dont “need” to own it.
_______________________

renting straight up sucks though.
i have sympathy for those who can’t afford their own abode/s.

#159 not 1st on 05.10.20 at 10:31 am

DELETED

#160 Figure it Out on 05.10.20 at 10:34 am

“The disdain is not for the vital services provided, it’s for the attitude of arrogant entitlement and disconnect from economic reality regularly and prominently displayed from many in the public sector unions. Couple that with an uneven quality of service delivery – trying to be kind here – and much of the contempt is well-deserved.”

Does this remind anybody else of the airline industry?

#161 move on on 05.10.20 at 10:42 am

@#126 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.09.20 at 10:39 pm
#62 Ryan Lewenza on 05.09.20 at 3:48 pm
JSS “I live in Alberta. 2/3 of Albertans would love nothing else than to watch its public sector see their pension blow up. There’s lots of jealousy because they have a pension and the rest of us don’t. Even though public sector employees pay around half into it. The government will likely ruin it (on purpose) in order to make their base happy.”

I’ve never understood peoples disdain for public sector workers and their pensions. First, the “public sector” is not just some bureaucrat collecting a government pay cheque. Like I said, it’s nurses, teachers, police etc. The people keeping us safe, educating our kids and preparing them for the world, and taking care of us when we’re most vulnerable. They are everyday heroes in my book so I don’t know why, as you claim, 2/3rds of Albertans would want their pensions to blow up. Second, nothing is stopping you or anyone else from getting a public sector job and collecting that pension you so much despise. So I disagree with almost everything you said. – Ryan L
—————-
Good points, Ryan.
Take note: Fartz.
-_________________________________

ya, the simpletons with nothing better to do will always rail against the public sector. with even minute ambition you can earn a ton more in the private sector without a lot of effort. quit yer belly aching people.

#162 you a bad dad on 05.10.20 at 10:45 am

@#96 IHCTD9 on 05.09.20 at 7:43 pm
#87 Joseph R. on 05.09.20 at 6:29 pm

Nobody is preventing you from running for public office.
——

Everyone should be trying to get a govy job….

It’s why I’m gently guiding my kids towards public sector work. It just keeps getting juicier, and juicier with no end in sight. Once they’re in, no worries – ever. The gravy train won’t end until the IMF is called in.
______________________________________

Willfully pushing your kids to take the path of least resistance? Sad. hopefully your kids are smarter than you.

#163 Sold Out on 05.10.20 at 10:52 am

#156 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 10:21 am
@#143 Bytor
“All it takes is one minor slip of protocol along the way and viola Granny Gert has Covid without seeing anyone…”

+++++
yep.
I started wearing latex gloves back in Mid March when the warnings went up.
People were smirking at me at the grocery store…
Those same people are now wearing masks….but no gloves……?
As they touch the door handle, pick up a basket, handle produce on sale, push the bank card reader buttons, touch the door handle………

This Fall flu season should be a zinger.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I wouldn’t be so smug. All those gloveless folks may be washing their hands on the way out of stores, just like you should be doing when you take off those gloves.

PPE is not magic; it must be used appropriately. Unless you have open wounds, the dermis provides the same level of protection from germs as gloves. Coronavirus enters via the mucus membranes, which you can still touch with a gloved hand anyway.

As a sole defense strategy, gloves are actually pretty useless for preventing respiratory disease transmission.

Don’t touch yer face, and wash yer hands.

#164 Phylis on 05.10.20 at 10:55 am

#151 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 10:02 am
@#126 Ponzie Plot
“Second, nothing is stopping you or anyone else from getting a public sector job”
+++

I wouldnt last 1 day as a public “servant”.
I , times are changing .
….
….
….
Lets see the next union contract negotiations where the Nurses( insert heroes here) will get generous
————————————-
Did you notice the union tactic of placing a clause of ‘we get what they get’ into a contact to guarantee the ratcheting up of wages/benefits? A percent here, a percent there… the mer of labour.

#165 Sky on 05.10.20 at 10:59 am

Public vs private sector :

Why do the wealthy/connected class send their children to private schools and hospitals if the public sector is so great? These people do everything in their power to ESCAPE the government sector swill which is being force fed to the average Canadian. Who is then told they’re actually being served filet mignon.

The whole system is a hot mess of nepotism and zero accountability to the public. How do you get rid of a bad teacher or a dirty cop? Good luck with that one.

Schools are pumping out illiterates, police are corrupt and inept, and you really do not want to set foot inside most of our hospitals. This isn’t anything to be proud of. It is shameful.

About the only government employees I still have respect for is the rare good teacher, our local municipal employees and the fire fighters who actually DO put their lives on the line as opposed to the Keystone cops.

We used to be better than this. Long gone.

#166 MF on 05.10.20 at 11:01 am

155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 10

Weren’t you the guy who said he is looking forward to people dying because of an earthquake in the future?

Now we can add “hopes teachers, nurses, and firemen” are laid off to the list of noble goals you have.

MF

#167 MF on 05.10.20 at 11:04 am

155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 10

Wishing pain on others like that is pretty low.

MF

#168 Hookshott on 05.10.20 at 11:17 am

#151 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 10:02 am
@#126 Ponzie Plot
“Second, nothing is stopping you or anyone else from getting a public sector job”
+++

I wouldnt last 1 day as a public “servant”.
I like to work and the mindset of the majority of the bureaucrats I have had the misfortune to deal with on a daily, weekly and monthly basis is mind numbing.

Lazy, stupid, arrogant and driven to underachieve are but of the few reasons I have repeatedly put forth.
Perhaps its their “jobs for life” that entrenched their attitude of invulnerability ? Who’s to say.
But , times are changing .
If other commenters on here are any indication….I’m not alone in my thinking that years of sloth should be rewarded with a fat, juicy, tax payer guaranteed pension.
……..
Oh, please, if it is such a good deal and very little”work” actually takes place, please take the required training (perhaps 5 years of university) and step in front of that class of 30 14 year olds, for 35 years…see how little work it actually is!

#169 IHCTD9 on 05.10.20 at 11:22 am

#138 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.10.20 at 7:42 am
——-

Sure Bytor, they both work forlarge government utility connected provincial monopolies. One is a Tradesman now paper pusher that satisfies regulation requirements and schedules maintenance work. The other is an “operator”. Both are College educated. The pay is up and down based on how much time and a half, double time, and triple time they get, but any time I’ve looked them up on the sunshine list the lowest they’ve made is 137k. Great years they both do over 150k they say.

Last time I had them over for beers, I totally forgot to administer the IQ tests, but they most assuredly are not as smart as you. Just regular dudes.

Is this a shocker or something?

Get this into you. I know another guy, works in the same sphere, but his job is running bulldozers and chain saws out in the bush all over the province . High school education, 10 years from retirement. Best year was 140k. Guy is a total redneck, but he sure knows how to milk the system. Said he paid for his house with OT/DT/TT alone.

You’re welcome.

#170 Stone on 05.10.20 at 11:26 am

#158 FYI on 05.10.20 at 10:30 am
@#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.09.20 at 10:04 pm
@#108 Anthony
“The paid off house is golden. You have to live somewhere, who cares if it falls in value, it’s shelter, a necessity.”
+++

Apparently you have learned nothing here.
You can rent a shelter…. you dont “need” to own it.
_______________________

renting straight up sucks though.
i have sympathy for those who can’t afford their own abode/s.

———

Likewise for the homeowners who applied for the 6 month mortgage payment deferral. Apparently, they can’t afford their own abode/s either.

#171 kc on 05.10.20 at 11:26 am

If you need something to watch today and have a couple hours…. found the Enron story free on line. cheers

https://watchdocumentaries.com/enron-the-smartest-guys-in-the-room/

#172 the Jaguar on 05.10.20 at 11:31 am

@#152 Ryan Lewenza on 05.10.20 at 10:06 am

Thank you for your response. I find it amazing that in these cases there isn’t a written ‘mandate’ of sorts that funds are managed based on a risk assessment similar to one an individual would be assessed on ( risk tolerance). Balanced portfolio weightings and specific directions not to indulge in high risk investments ( i.e. derivatives, junk bonds and other flotsam jetsam ). Quarterly review minimum with a severe beating and/or penalties for any monkeying around or hot dogging, with same applicable for anyone in the risk oversight role caught sleeping on the job.
I guess I am old fashioned.

#173 Anthony on 05.10.20 at 11:34 am

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz

We were talking about his assets which he claimed were “golden”, he didn’t include a paid off house, that’s ridiculous.

Yes you can rent shelter. You can also rent furniture, rent your daily driver, etc, I bet you don’t rent any of those things.

Listen, the people on this blog might be anomalies, but I’m in my 40’s, there are renters and owners in my peer group, not a single renter has any money invested, they have nothing. The homeowners all of them also have savings and investment.

They all bought in the mid to late 2000s, tell me how they’d ever be better off renting? House more than doubled, mortgage stayed the same. In 10 years they’ll have retired the mortgage, now what costs more? For the remaining 40 years of life, no mortgage payment, no rent. Maybe a new roof, furnace, big deal!

#174 Wearing gloves on 05.10.20 at 11:44 am

First back to cauliflower
Cannot find any statistics other than over 8 million people in Canada eat vegetables every day.
So how many beavers caught the virus again? Based on your granny story, the first person you and your granny
So 8 million people times 3 oh my god. Meanwhile Only 4 million in the entire planet got this virus. I guess the vegetable statistic is wrong? Oh yes you focussed on one vegetable, but my guess is people who eat veggies buy more than one kind? Carrots maybe?

To Mr. gloves
If you read any medical bulletins gloves are absolutely the worst thing because virus stays on the gloves longer than on your hands so you would need to change your gloves after you touch everything and anything.
Best to read medical advice before boasting what a great doctor you are. Have you ever noticed in a hospital as soon as a nurse touches anything they take of the gloves and wash their hands.
So in your case you must be going through hundreds of gloves per day.
Do you wear rubber gloves on your shoes?
Again medical advice is all about how the droplets fall to the ground. That’s why you stay 6 feet apart and 20 feet away from someone who’s sneezes.
That’s why you do not wear your shoes in the house.
This is why when people do misguided things it impacts the rest of us. If you come in contact with the virus with gloves on you spread it everywhere. Wake up!

Wash your hands. Period. And use hand sanitizer.

Back to investing, I have been told realtors are now putting Covid clauses in agreements. Interesting!
Have a great weekend!

#175 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.10.20 at 11:59 am

@154-

You think there’s only 2300 cases in BC?

Read the post again. You missed the point.

#176 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 12:25 pm

@#149 Shoot, Miss, Aim-co
“And as far as golden pensions, remember all you people out there have a chance to put up to 20 percent of your money into RRSPs ”
+++
Apparently reading and comprehension is missing in your “golden govt pensioned world.

Our 18% of salary is NOT garanteed….unlike your gold played, tax payer backed,GARANTEED pension…….

Are you really that thick?
Oh, Right…..
Govt employee….never mind.
Dont blame me when the feds ratchet up your taxes and cut your benefits ….it’s all going towards the unsustainable, bloated, federal, provincial and municipal “workers” that sat like mindless drooling, unaccountable drones in their cubicles for 35+ years pushing useless paperwork back and forth with nary a concern….
The govt cash crunch is coming…. PREPARE!
:)

#177 THE REAL TRUTH on 05.10.20 at 12:30 pm

THE NEW YORK GOVERNOR

Speaking the truth about these GREEDY corporations and the CORRUPT government.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPFb91dthOU

#178 Fused on 05.10.20 at 12:33 pm

Anyone picking up plastic manufacturers stock? Seems like a good purchase before the economy re opens we will need lots of partitions to keep everyone safe.

#179 Fused on 05.10.20 at 12:45 pm

All the people posting the demise of the cruise ship industry, people are going back to their old habits.

nypost.com/2020/05/09/carnival-swamped-with-bookings-after-announcing-august-return
Going to keep holding onto CCL and AAL, just keeps printing money.

#180 WTF on 05.10.20 at 1:18 pm

@132 “my Naturopath Doctor is closed, he pays 5000.00 per month rent and not seemed a essential service.”

—————————————————————–

1: Not a Doctor. Voodoo
2: Not an essential service. EVER.

In fact, going forward its a great way to reduce government “medical” expenses.

https://www.naturopathicdiaries.com/

#181 FYI on 05.10.20 at 2:24 pm

@#166 MF on 05.10.20 at 11:01 am
155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 10

Weren’t you the guy who said he is looking forward to people dying because of an earthquake in the future?

Now we can add “hopes teachers, nurses, and firemen” are laid off to the list of noble goals you have.

MF
____________________________________

fartz is definitely a ‘low road’ kinda fella.

#182 gasbag on 05.10.20 at 2:27 pm

@#176 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.20 at 12:25 pm
@#149 Shoot, Miss, Aim-co
“And as far as golden pensions, remember all you people out there have a chance to put up to 20 percent of your money into RRSPs ”
+++
Apparently reading and comprehension is missing in your “golden govt pensioned world.

Our 18% of salary is NOT garanteed….unlike your gold played, tax payer backed,GARANTEED pension…….

Are you really that thick?
Oh, Right…..
Govt employee….never mind.
Dont blame me when the feds ratchet up your taxes and cut your benefits ….it’s all going towards the unsustainable, bloated, federal, provincial and municipal “workers” that sat like mindless drooling, unaccountable drones in their cubicles for 35+ years pushing useless paperwork back and forth with nary a concern….
The govt cash crunch is coming…. PREPARE!
:)
________________________________

epic generalizations on here today.
everything is so black and white with you.

#183 Shot Glass on 05.11.20 at 6:48 am

#183 Gas, correct, the pendulum is swinging back. The unionized civil service royalty are managed by incomptetant civil service flunkies. The balanced portfolio and zany stick picking is going to break these plans. It’s already on the rise in the US. Will Trudeau attempt to confiscate Mills assets? Good luck with that Trudy. Unions had better get on the right side and push for fiscal responsibility because Trudeau-nomics is guaranteed to bankrupt the country.

The Motley Fool: 68% of Retirees May Be in for a Huge Social Security Shock.
https://www.fool.com/retirement/2020/05/10/68-of-retirees-may-be-in-for-a-huge-social-securit.aspx

#184 reed marx on 05.11.20 at 9:22 pm

Since the so called “plunge-protection-team” was invented to help bailout the 1987 Wall Street crash, it has become a morally corrupt tool which has ushered in the ugliest Laissez-faire credit bubble in the history of economics! This fact, along with forms of direct and indirect bailouts (credit facilities…blaablablaaa), has bread a sick financial system has created a most decadent self serving class of kleptocrats. A “system of theft” that socializes loses to the Fed and the taxpayers deserves to be put down. It does not have the moral legitimacy to be allowed to continue and therefore needs to be dismantled or deeply reformed. Unfortunately, we are too late for that. Funny thing smart folks like Ray Dalio have been saying this for 10+ years and no one listened. Have I even broached the global environmental disaster which it has caused and continues to cause? It needs to be put down sooner before a bloody revolution kicks in. Unfortunately, November 2nd, 2020 looks like the date for that. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but here we are.