Eating risk

Over 700,000 homeowners have pleaded for mortgage relief. What does this tell us?

First (duh) these folks can’t pay, don’t want to or need the cash to finance food, Netflix and N95s. In short, they own real estate they could only afford when a regular income was flowing. No savings, no reserves, lots of stress and debt.

It’s what you’d expect when the jobless rate explodes from 5% to 20% in a month, and after ten years of unbuckled house lust. Having all your net worth in one asset at one address on one street in one town doesn’t look so genius anymore.

Beyond the personal grief, there are systemic wobbles.

The federal agency standing behind all this mortgage debt – CMHC – has been saying and publishing some worrying things. Since the agency is funded by tax dollars, we should pay attention. (If there are any of them left.) For example, on Tuesday this was buried in the corp’s annual report:

“Increases in insurance claims losses may occur, however we are currently unable to estimate the potential impact on our financial results or condition. In the event our capital position may be impacted, under the Capital and Dividend Policy Framework for Financial Crown Corporations, the Government would stand prepared to inject capital into CMHC should additional capital be needed to deliver on our public policy mandate.”

Whoa. Did the guys insuring $600 billion in residential mortgages just say they might need a federal bail-out? After just buying $150 billion in mortgages from the banks amid the pandemic emergency?

Sure looks like it. Exploding unemployment, the certainty that reduced incomes will last for months (or years), historic levels of household debt, a collapsed real estate market and 10-15% of all owners who can’t pay their monthlies has the siren going off in Ottawa. Clearly CMHC is telling the government  defaults and loan losses may dot the horizon.

Already the agency has suspended its regular dividend payment to the federal government in order to preserve cash, and issued this statement: “As a key stabilizing component of the Canadian financial system, we will be substantially increasing our appetite for risk as we and other institutions absorb the impact of these events.”

Hmm. More risk. Sounds a tad ominous. Now add in what CMHC boss Evan Siddall and his colleagues said yesterday – that real estate markets will not bounce back this summer. Or autumn. Or next Spring. Instead: “The best case we’re looking at … house prices getting back to their pre-recession levels, at the earliest, by the end of 2022.”

That’s two-and-a-half years from now – the “best case” scenario, which presumably means Covid is defeated, we have a vaxxed herd, have managed to turn the economy back on, restored  personal incomes, reflated consumer confidence and revived the housing market. As you can see, lots of assumptions there.

But, as mortgage broker and blogger Rob McLister suggests, what if this doesn’t happen?

What if people stop believing in pent-up housing demand? When market psychology sours, more buyers step aside until the coast is clear. And the coast isn’t clear if people fear an avalanche of supply (property listings) post-lock-down. “Demand will be reduced by a weak labour market and weaker investment activity,” writes CIBC. “Forced sales will add to supply, and probably outweigh the offsetting impact of reduced supply of new units.”

Could these economic conditions (including troubles at CMHC) stop lenders from lending, preventing buyers from buying, causing prices to cascade lower as sellers grow more desperate? Some people think that’s already started to happen in the commercial real estate space.

Banks are freezing financing for smaller rental properties, thanks to virus-inspired worries over owners’ ability to carry the debt if tenants vanish, lose income or go broke. As one source put it: “If you’re a landlord, and looking to refinance, you can’t get that. So you’re probably going to have to sell. But they’re also limiting new owners who might want to buy that space.” As Reuters reported this week, this is driving some borrowers into the arms of the sub-prime lenders and their sky-high desperado lending rates.

Well, there ya go.

It’s a safe bet mortgage deferrals plus the CERB will be extended now, kicking the crisis down the road for a while longer. Key players – the banks, the feds, the housing agency – all pray enough jobs, income and confidence return to keep this baby from blowing. But it’s lookin’ shonky.

243 comments ↓

#1 Leo on 05.06.20 at 3:35 pm

I have the upmost confidence that the governments practice of crossing its fingers and hoping for the best will continue to help us weather the storm. :P

#2 Ejy on 05.06.20 at 3:36 pm

Just like the cdn govt, to interfere with the RE market. With more deferrals granted, more CERB, I wonder if RE price reductions will take a bit longer to start to manifest.

#3 SunShowers on 05.06.20 at 3:39 pm

The core belief that underpins capitalism is that constant growth is required to keep the machine moving.

And yet, capitalism can’t even survive a slowdown for a few weeks to adapt to the need of saving human lives. And we’re supposed to believe capitalism is supposed to go on forever?

Constant growth with disregard to the consequences is the philosophy of cancer cells.

#4 Property Accountant on 05.06.20 at 3:43 pm

I have been renting for 8 years now, pretty much since I started reading this blog. Thank God my wife is a saver too and supported my view of renting and resisted house lust and mass media “buy now or never” gong show in 2017.
I just got 2nd daughter born 2 weeks ago and with 1M saved (used to be 1.3M before Covid-19) I think I will start vulching and submitting predatory bull offers this Fall. We will wait and see.

#5 Blog Bunny on 05.06.20 at 3:46 pm

Garth,

It is a bloodbath out there. Should we stay invested ?

#6 Bob Dog on 05.06.20 at 3:47 pm

No Worries Mate. The vermin in Ottawa will just fire up the investor migrant program and invite hundreds of thousands of high net worth families to come buy Canada out from under the losers who live here.

You didn’t think this was a legitimate country did you?

#7 Alex on 05.06.20 at 3:52 pm

Oh no, more delays?… Ugh. Why? Why can’t this bubble die already…

So frustrating.

#8 Flanneur on 05.06.20 at 3:52 pm

Yikes!

#9 Attrition on 05.06.20 at 3:54 pm

First (duh) these folks can’t pay, don’t want to or need the cash to finance food, Netflix and N95s. In short, they own real estate they could only afford when a regular income was flowing. No savings, no reserves, lots of stress and debt.

That’s not my reading of this.

Far more likely, this indicates that most people who deferred their mortgages didn’t need to, only wanted to.

It’s logical to hold cash as long as possible, when possible, even to pay a little more later. Human nature, and that’s all mortgages are anyway: pay later.

Seeing this as proof of financial ruin reveals bias. Assuming the majority who take free money or deferral payments need to (or are facing financial ruin) is wrong or disingenuous.

And before anyone gets sanctimonious, I’m not talking morals, just prudence. It always–always–makes sense to take money offered, and hold onto your money longer if able.

This tells us nothing about the state of people’s finances, but watch–it will be used by government as justification or proof for something.

#10 Rainman on 05.06.20 at 3:56 pm

A bit doomerish today? Just keep calm and it will carry on. Housing and the stock market.

#11 Classical Liberal Millennial on 05.06.20 at 3:56 pm

If they want jobs, income, and confidence to return… then start opening more stuff up!

#12 Nick on 05.06.20 at 3:56 pm

Nothing to worry. CMHC has been wrong before. In 2021/22 Canadian Real Estate will be shooting up like Elon Musks SpaceX .

Buy homes in lower Brainland ASAP. I own 2 there.
It will handsomely pay off.

#13 NFN_NLN on 05.06.20 at 3:59 pm

> It’s a safe bet mortgage deferrals plus the CERB will be extended now

Or they could cut CERB and people can get back to work.
Unless you are at risk, there’s no reason for anyone under 60 to be staying home.

The viral curve is flattened, the economy is on it’s way…

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/taiwan-covid-19-lessons-1.5505031

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/stunning-sweden-brazil-kept-economies-open-covid-19-pandemic-numbers-dropping-faster-us/

#14 Leftover on 05.06.20 at 4:00 pm

Our friend Steve Saretsky believes in pent-up supply:

https://stevesaretsky.com/pent-up-supply-2/

CMHC? Perhaps the most dubious government institution there is. Why should we subsidize people that can only save 5% down?

Time to punt. Time to put 20% down to buy a house.

#15 Millennial905er on 05.06.20 at 4:04 pm

DELETED

#16 PSL on 05.06.20 at 4:09 pm

We’re in the process of creative destruction – Garth from a few days ago…
_________________________________________

no, we are not.

before interference by central banks, and governments, free markets would take care of themselves. the economy would decline, bankruptcies would increase, assets would be liquidated. this would lead to declines in prices for capital goods and equipment.

Schumpeter coined the phrase “creative destruction”. New industries would take over from the fallen ones. the old economy would be converted into a new one.

the economy would contract, and recover quite quickly. WITHOUT CENTRAL BANK and GOVERNMENT INTERFERENCE.

all this money printing and bailouts do nothing more than keep the old ZOMBIE companies and economy afloat. all this debt does is reduce future growth. Resources are diverted from profitable new industries and companies to keep the dead wood alive .. to the detriment of everyone.

BANKERS HATE LIQUIDATIONS. Because they are in incompetent and inept at their jobs, banks LOVE bailouts. We’re in a fiat world .. let’s print all the money we can to bail out the BANKERS and ZOMBIE companies.

1921 was the last recession were government allowed free markets to work. ya .. right after the Spanish Flu. you can read about it in James Grants “The Forgotten Depression: 1921, The Crash that Cured Itself”

for “Creative Destruction” to apply, the system has to be flushed. NO BAILOUTS, NO HANDOUTS, NO FREE MONEY…

#17 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.06.20 at 4:09 pm

Well said: “It’s a safe bet mortgage deferrals plus the CERB will be extended now, kicking the crisis down the road for a while longer.”

The whole thing is going to be extended, people. This is not going to disappear conveniently in time for summer.

Come back to your cottage in 2021.

NOT BEFORE.

#18 greg on 05.06.20 at 4:09 pm

I do not think everyone is deferring mortgage payments because they cannot pay now. Why pay if I do not have to and instead build a cash reserve for other expenses in these times of uncertainty. Yes, I will pay more over the long term but I would rather have cash in my pocket today during this crisis. In effect, I am extending the amortization period of my mortgage. There is a cost but it gives me peace of mind today when I need it.

#19 joblo on 05.06.20 at 4:12 pm

T2 will just sell the mess to China.
Chinada

#20 Kilt on 05.06.20 at 4:14 pm

Hey Garth.

Why have banks selling mortgages when CMHC just buys those mortgages from them. I’m already scratching my head at the fact that the banks don’t hold the risk with mortgage defaults because of CMHC insurance.
Why not just have CMHC running the whole show. Canadian government backing and making money off all mortgages. Maybe then we can get back to a correlation between interest rates and risk.
An insured mortgage with a 10% down-payment and a low credit score shouldn’t get a better rate than someone who puts 40% down and has outstanding credit.

Kilt.

#21 Player24 on 05.06.20 at 4:17 pm

Always interesting but the fact is no one knows where this is going. No one. We move forward . Everyone has an opinion with being negative the easiest route to follow. Day by day.

#22 tkid on 05.06.20 at 4:20 pm

Hi Garth, I know you’ve said in the past the banks have always paid out their dividends, but what are the odds that they cut their dividends if things continue to play out as not-the-best case?

Zero. – Garth

#23 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 05.06.20 at 4:23 pm

Finally a face to the great big PONZI scheme!

Its ALL FAKE….

#24 Dave on 05.06.20 at 4:25 pm

No bailouts for irresponsible people who are drasticalloy over-leveraged! Why did they get these loans in the first place? Where’s the accountability of CMHC?

#25 Ustabe on 05.06.20 at 4:27 pm

Nearly 50 million US citizens have their credit cut or lowered.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/credit-card-limits-reduced-canceled-50-million-americans/

“Lenders aren’t required to tell customers when their credit limits are lowered, LendingTree analyst Matt Schulz said, adding that many lenders made their moves in the past month to avert losses if cash-strapped consumers struggle to keep up with payments…”

Coming soon to a lender near you?

#26 Alberta Ed on 05.06.20 at 4:31 pm

Surely foreign investors will flock to Canada to create tens of thousands of new, wealth-producing jobs — just like Teck. Oh, wait…

#27 The real Kip (Ret) on 05.06.20 at 4:34 pm

Hope so, love CERB!

#28 Phil on 05.06.20 at 4:34 pm

I bought a townhouse in 1983, I bought it from CMHC. They discounted the mortgage to 11% from 15%, (yeah you read that right Mills, Boomers didn’t have as easy as you might think). They re-carpeted the house and put in a new fridge and stove. Why did CMHC do that you say?
Because of the huge number of mortgage defaults as a result of the 1980 recession. CMHC backed mortgages then too…how does that saying go? those idiots that don’t learn from history are doomed to do the same stupid thing again…or something like that!

#29 Kilt on 05.06.20 at 4:35 pm

#5 Blog Bunny on 05.06.20 at 3:46 pm

Garth,

It is a bloodbath out there. Should we stay invested ?

——
Definitely now is the time to sell. I’d sell everything.

Kilt.

#30 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 4:35 pm

#281 MF on 05.06.20 at 2:02 pm
#275 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 12

Following the law is “pretty sad”?

Laws are supposed to reflect morality. If you disagree with one you can lobby to get it changed.

Believing certain laws exist solely for “revenue generation” just sounds like cynicism.

MF
——-

Hey, if you want to pay for a permit to have a yard sale because you think there’s some morality in that bylaw, fill your boots my friend.

The more you pay, the less they’re going to worry about guys like me. I’ll think again when I see bylaw officers making regular trips around the block checking for yard sale permits.

Like I said: not worth enforcing? Not worth complying…

#31 Sail away on 05.06.20 at 4:39 pm

Argh- I have now been negatively affected by the Corvid.

Just tried to order supplies from my favourite bird dog supply company in the US and they’re not delivering to Canada.

Life is hard.

Also, say what you will about renting vs. owning… but I get great pleasure from owning my castle and continually improving it with perfect joinery, heavy timber construction, tile, nice finish work everywhere. When you do most of the work personally, the time to finish it doesn’t matter but doing it well matters greatly. There’s great satisfaction in doing something properly and seeing it every day.

This rubs off on kids, too. When our daughter was 11, she wanted a fish pond, so we told her that if she dug one, we’d help her set it up. She spent the next 3 months hacking a 12’x18’x3′ deep pond out of glacial till. Now with pump and waterfall, it’s a centerpiece and the frogs, goldfish and koi attract lots of wildlife; especially herons and raccoons, but also the odd mink and once an osprey.

#32 Do we have all the facts on 05.06.20 at 4:41 pm

Thank you for shedding some light on how the Government of Canada through CMHC, the Canada Housing Trust , the Department of Finance, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, and the Bank of Canada have used a wide variety of financial tools to assure that Canadians who wish to purchase a home continued to have access to residential mortgages at reasonable rates.

Since 2004 the Government of Canada has initiated over 60 different initiatives to support the residential housing market across Canada. In March 2020 the Government of Canada felt it was necessary to substantially increase the purchase of residential mortgages and mortgage backed securities. The decision to increase the Government of Canada’s exposure to debt was based On the realization that financial institutions might not continue to issue residential mortgages at reasonable rates unless additional funds were injected by the Government of Canada. It may not have been called quantitative easing but it sure quacked like it.

Unfortunately the world wide shutdown has curtailed arrival of a key component of demand for the 270,000 housing units under construction in Canada. This coupled with the substantial decline in employment based income is more than a little bit worrisome.

Without demand and the income necessary to secure financing prices will fall and CMHC knows from experience that an increase in foreclosures will be followed by an increase in insurance claims. They have not pushed the panic button yet but they certainly seem aware that the traditional toolbox might not curtail a substantial decline in prices this time around.

Shonky just about sums up how precarious this situation has become.

#33 Stylite on 05.06.20 at 4:46 pm

Soon everything will be back to normal, meaning some people will forget that this even happened, not learning a damned thing from it. Keep your heads up everyone.

#34 Ustabe on 05.06.20 at 4:48 pm

#3 SunShowers on 05.06.20 at 3:39 pm

The core belief that underpins capitalism is that constant growth is required to keep the machine moving.

And yet, capitalism can’t even survive a slowdown for a few weeks to adapt to the need of saving human lives. And we’re supposed to believe capitalism is supposed to go on forever?

Constant growth with disregard to the consequences is the philosophy of cancer cells.

Pretty much sums up my thoughts on the economic side of this current situation. We are comfortably retired so the most difficult thing I’m faced with at the moment is talking with and helping to prepare my young adult sons on how to proceed going forward.

As an aside, my sons each own duplex properties with zoning allowing them to have a suite below the owner occupied side…so 7 bedrooms rented, three families…all of whom have paid full rent last and this month. Talking with a neighbour who has three mid level houses he rents…full rent paid last and this and a quick convo with the lady who runs the property management side of a local real estate firm…she indicates they expect to be at 95% paid each month but are running at 90%. Not a large sample but out here in the boonies seems folks are paying the rent.

Plus lots of toilet paper on shelves in the stores. Also no cops ticketing us for going out for a walk. Golf is open, and my province has the lowest death per million residents figure of any other province, state or country in the world.

Life is good.

#35 I Weigh 129 Pounds on 05.06.20 at 4:49 pm

I don’t think that things are as bad as suggested. I took the CERB because I qualified. Am I desperate for money, absolutely not, but why use my savings when the government forced me to be at home without a pay check? I would have continued working. I was not afraid and I am no spring chicken either and to top it off, I don’t find this a moral dilemma at all. I choose not to use my savings to cover my forced stay at home position. Simple. I’m not over leveraged, I live in a house I can afford, I have my savings intact and will go back to work when the government opens up my industry again and if they drag their feet, then I will continue to collect my government forced to stay at home pay for as long as it’s being offered. And if I had a cottage, which I don’t, I would have no moral dilemma going their either. My house, my choice. This may sound selfish – but it’s not.

#36 Ronaldo on 05.06.20 at 4:56 pm

#4 Property Accountant on 05.06.20 at 3:43 pm
I have been renting for 8 years now, pretty much since I started reading this blog. Thank God my wife is a saver too and supported my view of renting and resisted house lust and mass media “buy now or never” gong show in 2017.
I just got 2nd daughter born 2 weeks ago and with 1M saved (used to be 1.3M before Covid-19) I think I will start vulching and submitting predatory bull offers this Fall. We will wait and see.
————————————————————-
What? Down 23% when a balanced and diversified portfolio should only be down about 4%. You need to talk to Garth.

#37 Doug t on 05.06.20 at 4:58 pm

The GREATEST economic experiment in modern times is dissolving- modern capitalism has peaked and like a volcano is erupting and will destroy many lives. Garth where is the safest place to be now? Is it time to get out of markets? I’m willing to stay in BUT boy everyday is a kick in the groin

#38 Dean on 05.06.20 at 5:03 pm

Hi Garth,
When I keep reading your blog it seems that the government is just going to keep bailing out everyone just like America 2008. Obama bailed out everything and everyone. Trudeau is doing the same. When does it end? When does this finally catch up with Canadians Garth?someone is to finally pay the bills. When? Never?

#39 conan on 05.06.20 at 5:05 pm

I think there are some difficult choices to make. I wonder if we are actually quite close to another federal election being called?

Or is that impossible because the Conservatives will vote for Karl Marx cookies before running another election with Scheer?

#40 Piano_Man87 on 05.06.20 at 5:05 pm

I’m just happy to know that even if I didn’t buy a house, as a taxpayer, the government may force me to do so. Only difference is, I don’t get to live in it.

#41 Lost...but not leased on 05.06.20 at 5:06 pm

#17 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.06.20 at 4:09 pm
Well said: “It’s a safe bet mortgage deferrals plus the CERB will be extended now, kicking the crisis down the road for a while longer.”

The whole thing is going to be extended, people. This is not going to disappear conveniently in time for summer.

Come back to your cottage in 2021.

NOT BEFORE.
=========================

Sorry….
We’ve traced your e-mail via DNA as direct relation to person who married Maggie Trudeau.

We’ll be up this weekend…Jagmeet and Andrew will be BBQing

#42 Bob in Hamilton on 05.06.20 at 5:07 pm

Yes, the government in Ottawa will save us….

…… what could possibly go wrong?

#43 Lead Paint on 05.06.20 at 5:08 pm

Well it’s official, my company’s April revenue is down 24%, not enough to qualify for CEWS (would need to be down by 30%). I’m not complaining, I’m lucky to have a business that its only slightly losing money, compared to the plight of so many others. I suspect we’ll start bleeding money later in the year as no new contracts come in.

But our competition might be tweaking numbers to their revenue down by 31% to get 75% of their payroll paid for, or perhaps they are legitimately down a smidge over 30%. Given that payroll is our biggest expense, that is a huge competitive advantage for them, and they will automatically qualify for May, even if they make more money than May last year.

On another note, both my in-laws had ‘consultations’ with their nephrologist (kidneys) and urologist by phone. Not even Zoom or Skype where they could look at their tongue or something.

What can they possibly help them with by phone? “How are your kidneys feeling today, Joe? Are you peeing blood” I suspect both doctors knew the consultation useless, but got a great chance to bill OHIP some real $ while sitting on their couch.

Lots of shysters taking advantage of the situation, all our taxes will go up to pay for it. No wonder so many are taking while the taking is good.

#44 GrumpyPanda on 05.06.20 at 5:08 pm

About 35 yrs ago I asked my grandpa over his lifetime of observation what multiple of a family income was a house affordable. He said up to about 4 times. Once you went to 5 times somebody got sick or lost a job and that’s when the trouble started. I sometimes wonder what answer realtors would give.

#45 Peter Courtney on 05.06.20 at 5:08 pm

What’s that weird sound??? Oh, that’s what a house of cards sounds like when it’s crashing down!!!

#46 Cto on 05.06.20 at 5:11 pm

Well Garth.
I’ve heard it all before.
About 10 years ago in 2009.
The government came out and pulled a rabbit out of the hat.
They ended up turning the greater fools into geniuses!
Ever since then real estate has become a camp lose investment.
Everyone piled in as now our primary economic driver just like manufacturing used to be. Sad.
is my belief that the government will spend a trillion,
Just to keep that damn floor in the housing market and the delusions alive. It is extremely unfair and loaded with moral hazard but these are new times were risk is rewarded.

#47 A J on 05.06.20 at 5:12 pm

“Increases in insurance claims losses may occur, however we are currently unable to estimate the potential impact on our financial results or condition. In the event our capital position may be impacted, under the Capital and Dividend Policy Framework for Financial Crown Corporations, the Government would stand prepared to inject capital into CMHC should additional capital be needed to deliver on our public policy mandate.”

This pisses me off to no end. So the people who are responsible and save and don’t buy a house they can’t afford, have to pay to bail out people who are irresponsible and can’t afford their mortgage. I guess I see why some people hate socialism. Sometimes, it just goes too far. Where’s the personal responsibility?

#48 Oscar on 05.06.20 at 5:17 pm

#286 TurnerNation on 05.06.20 at 3:04 pm
—————————————————————-

Just checking back in and see you are still wild eyed with your paranoia and tin foil diatribes. I told you to get back on your meds, leave the basement, stop watching Utube and reading conspiracy crap. Take a cold shower and give your head a shake. God you are a looney if there ever was one. You need to get your silly ass into what others have gone through in history and you would then realize how pathetic and goofy your ramblings are. You are a joke!

#49 The Raven on 05.06.20 at 5:17 pm

What a mess. Humpty Dumpty did indeed fall from his castle in Canada, and now, thanks for Ms Covid, he can’t be put together again. The good times are over for many years to come and how we will look back at the previous years wondering why did this party had to end. But everything has to end at some point.

#50 Phylis on 05.06.20 at 5:19 pm

#17 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.06.20 at 4:09 pm You need a hug from the keepyourrent guy.

#51 TurnerNation on 05.06.20 at 5:24 pm

The Tragically Hip band had an early song, Trickle Down:
“All the drinks are on the Crown” it goes.
And here we have the CERB handout due to this Crown virus ruling the world. Drink up lads, next round’s on the Feds.

https://genius.com/The-tragically-hip-trickle-down-lyrics
“Lining up, waiting on the trickle down
Something’s up, taking time to get around
Belly up, all the drinks are on the crown
It’s just a matter of trickle down”

—Of interest in 1997 they had a good song named Bobcaygeon. Bobcaygeon as we know was used as a ground zero for the nursing home crisis just now.
— Further, their other hit song New Orleans is Sinking.
Well New Orleans did sink, when the levees blew or were blown.

#52 Sail away on 05.06.20 at 5:28 pm

#35 I Weigh 129 Pounds on 05.06.20 at 4:49 pm

I don’t think that things are as bad as suggested. I took the CERB because I qualified. Am I desperate for money, absolutely not, but why use my savings when the government forced me to be at home without a pay check? I would have continued working.

…And if I had a cottage, which I don’t, I would have no moral dilemma going their either. My house, my choice. This may sound selfish – but it’s not.

——————-

Not selfish at all. It sounds honest and reasonable.

I suspect that cottage jackass is just a condo troll stirring the pot.

#53 TurnerNation on 05.06.20 at 5:30 pm

Some others made this comparison:

Canada Cuba
– Limited access to free health care. Check.
– Capitalism discouraged. Check.
– Travel bans for residents. Check.
– Despot family leader. Check.
– Food line ups and limited supply. Check
– Universal income pittance. Check
(Last year I posted many times that minimum wage really means Maximum Wage. As you must flip everything said by our rulers, 180 deg.
$2000 net grossed up 20% for pre-tax amount, divide by 160 hours a month…equals $15 an hour)

#54 Macduff on 05.06.20 at 5:38 pm

For those who say most people who are taking a mortgage deferral and CERB because they can and not because they need it, I call BS. If so many people weren’t $200 from insolvency before COVID struck, I would believe that argument.

#55 Idealistic Realist on 05.06.20 at 5:40 pm

#48 Oscar on 05.06.20 at 5:17 pm

Baaaaa

#56 Phylis on 05.06.20 at 5:48 pm

#52 Sail away on 05.06.20 at 5:28 pm
#35 I Weigh 129 Pounds on 05.06.20 at 4:49 pm

…And if I had a cottage, which I don’t, I would have no moral dilemma going their either. My house, my choice. This may sound selfish – but it’s not.

——————-

Not selfish at all. It sounds honest and reasonable.

I suspect that cottage jackass is just a condo troll stirring the pot.

————————-
Oh in that case, update my suggestion, cottage thing can go hug itself.

#57 Blacksheep on 05.06.20 at 5:52 pm

Cto # 46,

“I’ve heard it all before.”

“About 10 years ago in 2009. The government came out and pulled a rabbit out of the hat.”

“They ended up turning the greater fools into geniuses!
Ever since then real estate has become a camp can’t lose investment. Everyone piled in as now our primary economic driver just like manufacturing used to be. Sad.
is my belief that the government will spend a trillion,
Just to keep that damn floor in the housing market and the delusions alive. It is extremely unfair and loaded with moral hazard but these are new times were risk is rewarded.”
————————–
What he and or she said…

#58 Reality is stark on 05.06.20 at 5:56 pm

When housing is all you have, it’s all you have.
The idea is to abscond with as much public sector money as you can steal.
Kick the can down the road and steal as much money as the stupid people in the private sector let you steal. As your influence increases you eventually steal it overtly vs. covertly when they have less ability to stop you.
How do you take a 25% private sector pay cut while they are given raises? Just how stupid are you?
The majority of CMHC losses will be borne by the private sector.
A 60 cent dollar is optimistic.
What have we created?
Young men will not marry. Family court has become a kangaroo court of false allegations to steal even more money. It is toxic.
We can’t seem to get costs under control and we allow government agencies to take far too much risk and expose the taxpayer.
An over leveraged society that hammers innovative responsible citizens every which way but loose.
Meghan Markle is the rule not the exception and we will all die on the sword from creating a society that has relied on fictitious expectations that you can borrow against your house for all the things you cannot afford.
The divorce rate is about to go parabolic.

#59 MF on 05.06.20 at 6:00 pm

#13 NFN_NLN on 05.06.20 at 3:59 pm

“Unless you are at risk, there’s no reason for anyone under 60 to be staying home.”

-Not that simple. You have to remember it’s not so easy just to “get back to work” when a sizable portion of your customers are relatively wealthy boomers over 60.

Take a look at the population pyramid of all western countries. See that huge bulge of older boomers? Removing them as consumers on in a service based economy doesn’t leave many other consumers to consume.

People who cannot understand why this virus is so damaging are forgetting the huge number of wealthy older people who are at risk.

Get back to work to what?

MF

#60 YouKnowWho on 05.06.20 at 6:13 pm

CMHC

The Politician’s tool to goose up home prices, at no risk to banks, while leaving tax payers on the hook.

Also, increase values so you can increase property taxes stealthily. Need that tax money revenue!

You have to admire it.

“Oh no, you have it all wrong! CMHC is here to make housing accessible.”

Maybe once upon a time. But like all things touched by humans, this is CMHC Version 9 – now new and improved!

“Hey CMHC, can you buy 150B of this crap off our books please?”

“SURE!”

#61 Ace Goodheart on 05.06.20 at 6:15 pm

RE: #288 Crazytown on 05.06.20 at 5:20 pm
#284 ~ that’s so awesome to hear!! All of the locals and cottagers on my road have been welcoming and kind.. haven’t ventured into town and sorry to say it may be a long while before that happens but so happy to hear of your good experience.

/////////////////////////

I don’t go into town either.

My groceries are delivered (along with my beer) by my grocery lady before I get there (she even fluffs the pillows for me).

I don’t think I’ll go into town this summer at all, unless this virus really does disappear.

I just drive up, two hours and 15 min, to my cottage, park the car, and enjoy. When I’m done, I drive back down to the City.

#62 OK, Doomer on 05.06.20 at 6:17 pm

#3 SunShowers on 05.06.20 at 3:39 pm
The core belief that underpins capitalism is that constant growth is required to keep the machine moving.

And yet, capitalism can’t even survive a slowdown for a few weeks to adapt to the need of saving human lives. And we’re supposed to believe capitalism is supposed to go on forever?

Constant growth with disregard to the consequences is the philosophy of cancer cells.

_____________________________________

Bernie style pinko-commie BS.

Try think of economic growth as fractal and you’ll understand why it can continue unabated. If you don’t know what fractal is google it and try to understand how growth naturally and organically paves the way for more economic growth.

The biggest danger is when government (ie. through intervention) ceases to be a referee and starts deciding who should win and who should lose. Then the Fit hits the Shan as there is no free and creative destruction to clean out loser segments and allow for re-birth.

My opinion? We should have all taken the Swedish approach and soldiered on.

#63 jess on 05.06.20 at 6:18 pm

..”Obama bailed out everything and everyone.”
That statement is incorrect.

https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/
https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/initiatives/2-emergency-economic-stabilization-act

#64 When the Whip Comes Down on 05.06.20 at 6:22 pm

Man, people and behavior sheesh. Nobody wants to buy when an avalanche of supply hits the market. Personally, where I live, I will welcome that supply. Bring it…….

#65 YouKnowWho on 05.06.20 at 6:22 pm

#9 Attrition

But but but….it’s not free money.

#66 Nonplused on 05.06.20 at 6:23 pm

The accounting firms, after reducing hours as much as they could, have now started with hard layoffs. The unemployment numbers ain’t done rising yet. I wonder if there will be yet another wave after that.

#67 Irish Stew on 05.06.20 at 6:24 pm

CERB – no more needed please.
Canadians
Exit
Returning
Back to Work

#68 YouKnowWho on 05.06.20 at 6:30 pm

#20 Kilt

Stop talking normal. Normal is not how things are done around these parts.

#69 NFN_NLN on 05.06.20 at 6:31 pm

#26 Alberta Ed on 05.06.20 at 4:31 pm
Surely foreign investors will flock to Canada to create tens of thousands of new, wealth-producing jobs — just like Teck. Oh, wait…

Trudeau, the NDP and the Green party have agreed to put aside their differences during these difficult times and help Alberta and the energy economy:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/oil-is-dead-green-bloc-parties-1.5557725

#70 Nonplused on 05.06.20 at 6:31 pm

#17 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.06.20 at 4:09 pm
Well said: “It’s a safe bet mortgage deferrals plus the CERB will be extended now, kicking the crisis down the road for a while longer.”

The whole thing is going to be extended, people. This is not going to disappear conveniently in time for summer.

Come back to your cottage in 2021.

NOT BEFORE.

————————–

Will you go away please? You don’t have anymore right to be where you are than the “cottagers” do. They won the property, pay their income taxes, spend their money locally, all the same things you do. So unless the government bans transportation, expect to see all your summer neighbors soon. Nobody is going to listen to you. And there isn’t anything you can do about it if you don’t want to spend some time chilling in jail. Besides, if they are following all the protocols I don’t see what your are so worried about. I doubt they will be coming anywhere near a nasty like you, if they ever did.

#71 Ballingsford on 05.06.20 at 6:33 pm

So CHMC bails out the banks, and then CMHC doesn’t have enough cash to cover their own ass and might need to get in line for a handout from the Feds. Aren’t the both really the Feds and one calls itself an agency.

Millenials who weren’t able to buy property before sure won’t be able to get in now. And the moisters who did buy, are probably wishing they didn’t buy now.

What a mess we are in. I can’t see any way out of this.

#72 Crazytown on 05.06.20 at 6:33 pm

#61 I’m close enough to able to drive there and back without stopping for gas or anything also.. just to enjoy nature and the peace is enough for me.. also, agreed and not going into town this year.. oh well, cheers and hope you enjoy your summer!! :)

#73 Don Guillermo on 05.06.20 at 6:33 pm

#53 TurnerNation on 05.06.20 at 5:30 pm
Some others made this comparison:
Canada Cuba
– Limited access to free health care. Check.
– Capitalism discouraged. Check.
– Travel bans for residents. Check.
– Despot family leader. Check.
– Food line ups and limited supply. Check
– Universal income pittance. Check

***************************************

You forgot the most important one on of all. State controlled media. The glue that holds it all together.

#74 Brian Ripley on 05.06.20 at 6:34 pm

My Vancouver vs Toronto housing chart is up now:
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

JAN 2013 SFD price 88% more in Vancouver vs Toronto

MAY 2017 SFD PEAK price 51% more in Vancouver than the MAR 2017 SFD PEAK Price in Toronto

FEB 2019 SFD price 47% more in Vancouver vs Toronto

APR 2020 SFD price 63% more in Vancouver vs Toronto

APR 2020 T-House price 29% more in Vancouver vs Toronto

APR 2020 Condo price 14% more in Vancouver vs Toronto

APR 2020 The absorption rate plunged to 28% in Toronto vs Vancouver at 12%

Weak hands better get busy if CMHC is projecting 4Q 2022 before “house prices getting back to their pre-recession levels”

Is “pre-recession levels” the WTI oil peak of July 2008? If so that’s another +/- 50% price haircut from now and my Plunge-O-Meter is going to be very busy.

#75 Martin on 05.06.20 at 6:36 pm

I believe that many who have differed mortgage’s are just trying to preserve cash for things they need day-to-day. Adding some debt to your mortgage, over many years of paying it off he’s not that big a deal to preserve short-term cash flow. That’s the case for me, I could pay my mortgage. Feel much better knowing I have cash in the bank if anything was to get worse

#76 Lost...but not leased on 05.06.20 at 6:37 pm

If BC Premier let his goatee morph into Fu Manchu “stache’ “…look like Hulk Hogans twin

” Hulk Horgan “

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.06.20 at 6:38 pm

#30 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 4:35 pm
#281 MF on 05.06.20 at 2:02 pm
#275 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 12

Following the law is “pretty sad”?

Laws are supposed to reflect morality. If you disagree with one you can lobby to get it changed.

Believing certain laws exist solely for “revenue generation” just sounds like cynicism.

MF
——-

Hey, if you want to pay for a permit to have a yard sale because you think there’s some morality in that bylaw, fill your boots my friend.

The more you pay, the less they’re going to worry about guys like me. I’ll think again when I see bylaw officers making regular trips around the block checking for yard sale permits.
———–
Where on earth, do you need a permit for a yard sale?
Are you making things up, again?

#78 Idiocy on 05.06.20 at 6:41 pm

to comment # $ Property Acountant

Wait to buy.

From what Garth has described, this could be an epic. blood bath.

You’ve waited 8 years – give it a couple more and, no, 10 or 20 % off the prices of last year is not vulcthing – think 40 to 60% in distressed sales in certain areas.

Doubt me – go back and look at 1995 to 1997 and see what distressed properties sold for versus 1989.
It is possible.

#79 NFN_NLN on 05.06.20 at 6:42 pm

#59 MF on 05.06.20 at 6:00 pm

Take a look at the population pyramid of all western countries. See that huge bulge of older boomers? Removing them as consumers on in a service based economy doesn’t leave many other consumers to consume.

People who cannot understand why this virus is so damaging are forgetting the huge number of wealthy older people who are at risk.

(1)
You always hear people jokingly say “you can’t take it with you when you die!”

You’re the first person I’ve met to foolishly believe it. You believe that money vanishes when you die. Fool.

(2)
If they concentrated the same effort to just isolating the elderly and sick it would be more effective than what we are doing now.

(3)
Now it’s my turn to be an MF’r and turn it back on you. Without anyone working what are the elderly going to spend all this wealth on? Unless you fantasize about playing Weinstein and the single mother actress I fail to see how this benefits you.

#80 Northshore guy on 05.06.20 at 6:43 pm

“It’s a safe bet mortgage deferrals plus the CERB will be extended now”

What? So they will extending mortgage deferrals after the current 6 month period finishes? for how long? I think I mentioned this already earlier this week

#81 Sail away on 05.06.20 at 6:45 pm

#30 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 4:35 pm
#281 MF on 05.06.20 at 2:02 pm
#275 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 12

Following the law is “pretty sad”?

Laws are supposed to reflect morality. If you disagree with one you can lobby to get it changed.

Believing certain laws exist solely for “revenue generation” just sounds like cynicism.

MF

————–

Hey, if you want to pay for a permit to have a yard sale because you think there’s some morality in that bylaw, fill your boots my friend.

Like I said: not worth enforcing? Not worth complying…

————–

I’m totally with MF on this. Quit being such a criminal, IH.

There are some beautiful laws. Here are some samples; in Canada and mostly in Ontario, particularly the Toronto area, it is illegal to:

-Swear in a park
-Swear at your mother in public
-Drag a dead horse down Yonge Street on Sunday
-Place hazardous material on kite strings (e.g., sand)
-Play sports of any kind on roads (think ball hockey)
-Leave your doors and windows open if you are away from your house for more than one week
-Paint a wooden ladder
-Pretend to practice witchcraft
-Build a large snowman (regular-sized snowmen are ok)
-Play a musical instrument in a park
-Climb a tree
-Frighten the Queen
-Pay with change more than $5 in nickels, or $25 in loonies

However, the Supreme Court has ruled that oral sex with pets is fine, as long as no penetration occurs… now if that doesn’t reflect the morality of our society, MF, nothing does:

https://www.complex.com/life/2016/06/canada-oral-sex-animals-legal

#82 Tim123 on 05.06.20 at 6:48 pm

It is certainly a strong probability that the real estate market will crash.
I think the key element is that the coronavirus is going to cause social distancing and everything that. From what I can figure the following industries will be impacted:
Hotels, restaurants, travel, conventions, meetings, real estate, construction, home renovations, airlines, trains, buses, less demand for autos, less investment for technology because companies and people are short of money, banquet, weddings, optometrists, lawyers, dentists, chiropractors, physiotherapists, massage therapists, auto garages because less driving, bars, gyms, transit, retail businesses, cruises, casinos, sports events, concerts, professional athletes, theme parks, movie theaters, motion picture industry, music industry, bingo halls, banks (less need for branches), financial planners, clothing designers, office staff

The good news is that this will only last until a vaccine for coronavirus is found in 12 to 18 months but long enough for a meltdown in real estate. A lot of these industries will be impacted to various degrees.

#83 BlogDog123 on 05.06.20 at 6:49 pm

In Ontariowe, during this pandemic, I wonder how much new debt is being created just from the ELECTRICITY subsidies (gov’t debt pile absorbing the true cost of electricity).

Lots of factories not at full capacity… yet wind and solar and oversupply mean we export electricity at a loss??

#84 islander on 05.06.20 at 6:52 pm

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/home-prices-won-t-recover-from-covid-for-at-least-2-years-cmhc-says-1.4926226

‘Meanwhile’

“On Monday, Greater Vancouver’s real estate board said its composite price benchmark index was up 0.2 per cent from March, but that the number of sales hit the lowest levels in nearly 40 years — 62.7 per cent below their 10-year average.”

#85 Retro Marxist on 05.06.20 at 6:52 pm

Privatize Profits; Socialize Losses. Look for welfare cuts and freezes next year.

#86 Axehead on 05.06.20 at 6:52 pm

Is shonky a word?

#87 YouKnowWho on 05.06.20 at 6:54 pm

The Washington Post yesterday published the results of a poll it conducted jointly with the University of Maryland, which found that Americans are making their peace with going to the grocery store but feel uncomfortable with leaving the house for other commerce. Among respondents, 44 percent said they are uncomfortable grocery shopping, 67 percent said they would be uncomfortable shopping for clothing in a bricks-and-mortar retail store, and 78 percent said they would be uncomfortable eating out in a restaurant.

In the poll, 82 percent of respondents also said movie theaters should not be allowed to reopen at this time. Nearly as many, 78 percent, said gyms should be forced to remain closed, and 74 percent said restaurants and nail salons should remain closed.

More than 60 percent of respondents also wanted gun shops, barber shops and hair salons, and other retail stores to be closed. Golf courses, which are primarily large outdoor spaces, met the least opposition, but even then, 59 percent of respondents said they should remain closed as well.

#88 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 6:54 pm

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.06.20 at 6:38 pm
#30 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 4:35 pm
#281 MF on 05.06.20 at 2:02 pm
#275 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 12

Following the law is “pretty sad”?

Laws are supposed to reflect morality. If you disagree with one you can lobby to get it changed.

Believing certain laws exist solely for “revenue generation” just sounds like cynicism.

MF
——-

Hey, if you want to pay for a permit to have a yard sale because you think there’s some morality in that bylaw, fill your boots my friend.

The more you pay, the less they’re going to worry about guys like me. I’ll think again when I see bylaw officers making regular trips around the block checking for yard sale permits.
———–

Where on earth, do you need a permit for a yard sale?
Are you making things up, again?
— —-

Haha, love it! Careful Ponzie – remember what happened the last time you though I was full of $h!t about how much lower private Ontario car insurance is? You ended up learning the hard way (hey, some folks need to).

I’d be happy to give you this info, but first – tell me how you think a bylaw like this is stupid, insane, a cash grab, and unenforceable. I wanna hear you say it out loud first.

Get this into you: a big city not too far from me a few years back floated the idea of charging people waiting on the sidewalk to get into a bar. Like, sidewalk rent.

Think I’m full of it Ponzie?

#89 Anthony on 05.06.20 at 6:56 pm

#62 Doomer
Try think of economic growth as fractal and you’ll understand why it can continue unabated. If you don’t know what fractal is google it and try to understand how growth naturally and organically paves the way for more economic growth.

Not even remotely accurate. You can’t have infinite growth on a finite planet. Too much magical thinking here.

#90 earthboundmisfit on 05.06.20 at 7:00 pm

Zero. – Garth
Bet?

#91 GrumpyPanda on 05.06.20 at 7:03 pm

A relative worked at a hospital in cottage country. Summers meant a new season of stupid tourist tricks. Example: the guy who broke his leg crashing into the rocks because he didn’t want his windsurfing board to be damaged. The guy telling you to start away from the cottage may be more sane than you’re willing to admit.

#92 Re-Cowtown on 05.06.20 at 7:03 pm

#69 NFN_NLN on 05.06.20 at 6:31 pm

Trudeau, the NDP and the Green party have agreed to put aside their differences during these difficult times and help Alberta and the energy economy:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/oil-is-dead-green-bloc-parties-1.5557725
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Only a socialist would think that shooting survivors is an act of mercy…..

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.20 at 7:04 pm

@#86 Axehead
“Is shonky a word?”
+++
Yep,
Right after shagadelic in the dictionary.

#94 Figure it Out on 05.06.20 at 7:06 pm

But what about your buddy Benny?

https://renx.ca/most-commercial-real-estate-sectors-emerge-ok-post-pandemic/

Me, I ignore the head of CMHC’s speculation on the future of real estate prices right now, just as I ignore the CEO of Air Canada’s predictions about air travel. Right now, these people have NO more visibility than I do. That’ll probably never be true again, but it’s true today.

#95 the Jaguar on 05.06.20 at 7:07 pm

“Over 700,000 homeowners have pleaded for mortgage relief. What does this tell us?”
Unfortunately, what we already knew and what this blog has been cautioning against since Christ was a Corporal.
Too many people owning real estate for all the wrong reasons, i.e speculation, greed, family pressure, and biting off more than they could chew. Sorry if that isn’t the upbeat response some might prefer, nor is it schadenfreude because many people are going to be seriously hurt in the coming months.

Would this be the time to also remind people that Evan Siddall, the mensch of CMHC warned against this predicament in May 2019 in his letter to the Standing Committee on Finance where he advised “My job is to advise you against this reckless myopia and protect our economy from potentially tragic consequences. Indeed, it was my primary aim in leaving a private sector career in finance for public service: to help prevent a repeat of the harm that excessive mortgage lending created for hundreds of thousands of households just a decade ago.”
He wouldn’t have known Covid was the catalyst that would derail the train, but he wasn’t alone in warning Canadians of an impending train wreck. ( Thank you for your service, Mr. Sidall and Mr. Poloz ).

CMHC insured mortgages are funny things. It is my understanding that the lender (Bank) is still the one stuck with disposing of the house asset, and if there is a shortfall on what is required to pay out the mortgage debt the underwriting of that mortgage will come under scrutiny. It better have been ‘rigorous’. Hopefully no fibs were overlooked according to internal underwriting standards. If a shortfall must be paid, CMHC can still pursue the borrower for it. If the underwriting wasn’t ‘rigorous’ one assumes the lender can still ( in most provinces ) pursue the borrower and their assets for complete payment. File a writ of execution. Wait. Search. Renew the writ. Wait. Search and so on….
“Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences” Robert Louis Stevenson.
Or, as Clint Eastwood said in the movie Unforgiven…”We all have it coming, Kid”.

I love those two handsome German Shepherd pups.

#96 SnowOwl on 05.06.20 at 7:11 pm

Hello everybody,
Speaking of banks cutting their dividends, should one be buying VFH right now? It of by 33% today.

#97 Flop... on 05.06.20 at 7:15 pm

#258 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 11:24 am
Hey Flopster, are guys still doing siding and eaves trough off of ladders? In my previous career, anytime the millwrights needed to do a lot of overhead work, I ended up renting one of these:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IJ2bOZUdVU

/////////////////

Hey Trackie,

I work primarily on high end residential construction.

The main reason they don’t use Boom Lifts where I work are because of lack of spacing in between houses and established gardens impact that the city tries to protect with the Orange Mesh.

Condominium construction they are ubiquitous.

Sub-division new build houses/ townhomes are also applicable

Siding or Stucco, the normal practice I observe is, metal brackets attached to the framing of the house with hundreds of wooden planks lapping the house.

The mesh I nicknamed on here Orange Death Mesh, because you knew in most cases it was gonna end in tears for the house, in particular during and extended building boom with houses built in the 90’s meeting their maker.

I still haven’t worked out the latest trend on the Westside, Black Death Mesh around the established trees and gardens.

I thought the whole point of the Orange mesh was to make it as visible as possible to construction workers and delivery guys with cranes etc.

The black mesh looks more discreet, maybe they are hoping the pissed off neighbors don’t notice as much that the house down the street has been getting worked on for 4 years…

M45BC

#98 Figure it Out on 05.06.20 at 7:18 pm

“… tell me how you think a bylaw like this is stupid, insane, a cash grab, and unenforceable.”

Oh, I remember reading about how these came to be. Some entrepreneurial spirit was running garage sales every weekend, which is cute and industrious if you live a few blocks away, but annoying if you live across the street and are easily annoyed. So the neighbour complains to the town but there’s no real law against it, unless the town wants to go whole hog and cite the guy for a zoning violation, with all the evidence that would require. So if they pass a law saying you need a permit and are limited to two/household/year or whatever, they can just show up and ticket him every time the neighbour narcs him out.

Whether this happened in YOUR town or whether it happened in one place and was copied by town councils with not enough on the agenda, I don’t know.

Behind most every law is either corruption trying to stifle the competition, or a somewhat anti-social citizen whose behaviour wasn’t quite illegal before — that’s my general opinion, anyway.

#99 will on 05.06.20 at 7:22 pm

Shonky definition: of dubious integrity or legality

#100 Nonplused on 05.06.20 at 7:23 pm

#86 Axehead on 05.06.20 at 6:52 pm
Is shonky a word?

—————–

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/shonky

Goggle. Use it. All questions are answered both correctly and incorrectly as well as some questions you didn’t ask in a single search in 0.36 seconds.

#101 OK, Doomer on 05.06.20 at 7:24 pm

#89 Anthony on 05.06.20 at 6:56 pm
#62 Doomer
Try think of economic growth as fractal and you’ll understand why it can continue unabated. If you don’t know what fractal is google it and try to understand how growth naturally and organically paves the way for more economic growth.

Not even remotely accurate. You can’t have infinite growth on a finite planet. Too much magical thinking here.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

A lack of imagination is the greatest failing of most humans, but the greatest of opportunities for those with imagination.

A little over 125 years ago the Prairies were considered a wasteland as no grain crops could survive the short growing season.

Then William Saunders imagined crossing Red Fife and Marquis wheat strains and Canada fed the world.

I’m sure that Saunders had critics telling him that his ideas would never work as everyone knew that all of the arable land was taken, but he refused to accept the limits that others viewed as absolute.

A lack of imagination is a sad excuse for accepting the limitations pronounced by others.

#102 Grunt on 05.06.20 at 7:26 pm

I can’t reflect on where REs going during Covid. But I have witnessed this. I’m in the Toronto downtown core and tent cities appear to be popping up in many parks since the lockdown. It’s desperate & heart breaking to see so many downtrodden, squatted in closed store & restaurant fronts and parks. With little more in life than a backpack. And NO prospects for employment or anything. So much for Mr Mayors promise to find community homes or hotel rooms for the destitute during the emergency. Maybe it’s by choice or ignorance I have no idea. But amongst the cities gleaming towers lurks a desperate poverty a country like Canada shouldn’t be complacent or proud of.

#103 Nonplused on 05.06.20 at 7:29 pm

#91 GrumpyPanda on 05.06.20 at 7:03 pm
A relative worked at a hospital in cottage country. Summers meant a new season of stupid tourist tricks. Example: the guy who broke his leg crashing into the rocks because he didn’t want his windsurfing board to be damaged. The guy telling you to start away from the cottage may be more sane than you’re willing to admit.

—————————–

No he is not, he is just another Karen.

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Karen

#104 Linda on 05.06.20 at 7:32 pm

So what happens if loans insured by CHMC default? Does the government via CHMC end up ‘owning’ the property? Is is seized/sold to recoup at least some of the money owing? If banks will foreclose if forced to it – because they don’t actually want the property, they want the mortgage payments to continue so they don’t have to absorb a loss – does CHMC do the same?

#105 Flop... on 05.06.20 at 7:32 pm

Shonky?

Now you talkin my language.

It is Antipodean slang.

The other one that someone mused over the other day was the naming of the housing site that I think you guys use in Ontario.

Bungol, or something like that?

Bunghole in Australia is…

I’ll leave that to your imagination.

Also I don’t wear Roots products…

M45BC

#106 Idiocy on 05.06.20 at 7:34 pm

Mr. Turner has cited some very serious issues here -they should not be dismissed, but rather contemplated – as dire, dark and disturbing as they are.

I think that many Canadian home owners have lost their ability to reason / think critically and certainly cannot summon 2nd or 3rd order thoughts.

If they could, then Canada would not be in the precarious economic position he has described.

I think Canadians are about to learn about the downside of leverage – and a hard lesson it will be.

#107 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 7:35 pm

#97 Flop… on 05.06.20 at 7:15 pm
#258 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 11:24 am
Hey Flopster, are guys still doing siding and eaves trough off of ladders? In my previous career, anytime the millwrights needed to do a lot of overhead work, I ended up renting one of these:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IJ2bOZUdVU

/////////////////

Hey Trackie,

I work primarily on high end residential construction.

The main reason they don’t use Boom Lifts where I work are because of lack of spacing in between houses and established gardens impact that the city tries to protect with the Orange Mesh.

Condominium construction they are ubiquitous.
—-

Yeah, they’re kind of big for a jam packed urban subdivision. Then again, you could just redo the front and back of the house, and no one would ever know.

The guys I got these lifts for just loved them to death, no way were they doing it any other way after they got their hands on one of those babies…

#108 Genesis II on 05.06.20 at 7:36 pm

#55 Idealistic Realist on 05.06.20 at 5:40 pm

#48 Oscar on 05.06.20 at 5:17 pm

Baaaaa
////////////////////////////

Beat me to it IR! Oscar, it is people like you that have earned the title “Sheeple”. Proud?

#109 Drill Baby Drill on 05.06.20 at 7:36 pm

“The best case we’re looking at … house prices getting back to their pre-recession levels, at the earliest, by the end of 2022.”
Not effen likely at all. CMHC is dreaming in technicolor.
I put forth this prediction right here right now many a constituent in mortgage trouble will be lookiing for a mortgage bailout very soon. Watch Trudeau open our wallets once more.

#110 John in Mtl on 05.06.20 at 7:37 pm

#9 Attrition on 05.06.20 at 3:54 pm

Yeah but isn’t that assuming the people are financially literate and know what they are doing? This blog often reveal dismal statistics in the literacy department. The smart ones are doing what you describe, the others, not so much.

#111 Stone on 05.06.20 at 7:39 pm

#82 Tim123 on 05.06.20 at 6:48 pm
The good news is that this will only last until a vaccine for coronavirus is found in 12 to 18 months but long enough for a meltdown in real estate. A lot of these industries will be impacted to various degrees.

———

Not particularly picking on this poster. The above post is just the most recent one indicating that a vaccine will be found in the next 12 to 18 months. Sounds great but…

So, last month, various comments were also made that a vaccine will be found in the next 12 to 18 months.

The month prior to last month, various comments were again made that a vaccine will be found in the next 12 to 18 months.

And again, the month prior that, same blah, blah, blah about 12-18 months.

So, here’s my point. Shouldn’t that figure drop to 11 to 17 months, then 10 to 16 months, and then 9 to 15 months ad each month passes?

Boys and girls, children of all ages, might you all be deluding yourselves about any vaccine ever being developed? You can’t keep pushing out your 12-18 month forecast forevermore, can you?

Face it. It’s never gonna happen. Please use your brains.

#112 You Win With 7 on 05.06.20 at 7:41 pm

#53 Turner Nation

$2000 net grossed up 20% for pre-tax amount, divide by 160 hours a month…equals $15 an hour)

——————————————–

Actually, it’s $2,000 gross, not net. Divided by 160 hours a month it works out to $12.50 an hour.

P.S. This is right up your alley:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjePVhDfaMk

#113 CL on 05.06.20 at 7:45 pm

Now the chickens come home and who pays for this glaring moral hazard called CMHC? yeah, as always savers and taxpayers. Reward bad behavior. Sounds like a good plan.

#114 John in Mtl on 05.06.20 at 7:48 pm

@ #40 Piano_Man87 on 05.06.20 at 5:05 pm

“I’m just happy to know that even if I didn’t buy a house, as a taxpayer, the government may force me to do so. Only difference is, I don’t get to live in it.”

Sad but true! I’m in the same boat.

#115 It's ... on 05.06.20 at 7:53 pm

#86 Axehead on 05.06.20 at 6:52 pm

Is shonky a word?

——————————————
Conkie’s sister …

#116 John in Mtl on 05.06.20 at 8:00 pm

#59 MF on 05.06.20 at 6:00 pm

:…Take a look at the population pyramid of all western countries. See that huge bulge of older boomers? Removing them as consumers on in a service based economy doesn’t leave many other consumers to consume. …”

Yes it does, partly… Boomers die, there is inheritance to the younger ones. They become the new consumers. And the governments get their pound of flesh, err…, taxes.

#117 Nah! on 05.06.20 at 8:04 pm

Re:48 Oscar.
Back off on Turner nation.

He has contributed much to this blog in the past, much more than you have with your rude and nasty comments; You are a newcomer exhibiting little intelligence…Smarten up, or go back in your hole.

#118 Mr Canada on 05.06.20 at 8:11 pm

COVID-19 is having some dangerous effects on our country. I don’t count its lethality among them. While any death is a personal tragedy any disease with a better than 90% survival rate isn’t an existential threat. This isn’t yellow fever, it’s not typhus that destroyed armies, or plague that depopulated entire regions, or malaria, that kills hundreds of thousands every year, and it’s not 1918. Most of the harm of COVID-19 derives, not from the disease, but from our response to it. Another ominous aspect of the COVID-19 response is the uncritical acceptance of the advice of experts. An epidemiologist’s dream may be to leave everyone isolated from each other forever, but that’s a nightmare to others.

Perhaps the most disturbing facet of the COVID-19 response has been the rush to surrender power to the government. In a progressive society of intelligent, mature people, different individuals make their cases for the appropriate response to any challenge the community faces. This public lust for a dictatorship of the administrative state has become depressingly pervasive. Being cared for by an all-powerful maternalistic system seems to have great appeal for the many who clamour to surrender themselves to it in the foolish expectation it will take care of them.

#119 Wrk.dover on 05.06.20 at 8:12 pm

#35 I Weigh 129 Pounds on 05.06.20 at 4:49 pm

——————————-

Eat!

#120 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.06.20 at 8:16 pm

#88 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 6:54 pm
#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.06.20 at 6:38 pm
#30 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 4:35 pm
#281 MF on 05.06.20 at 2:02 pm
#275 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 12

Following the law is “pretty sad”?

Laws are supposed to reflect morality. If you disagree with one you can lobby to get it changed.

Believing certain laws exist solely for “revenue generation” just sounds like cynicism.

MF
——-

Hey, if you want to pay for a permit to have a yard sale because you think there’s some morality in that bylaw, fill your boots my friend.

The more you pay, the less they’re going to worry about guys like me. I’ll think again when I see bylaw officers making regular trips around the block checking for yard sale permits.
———–

Where on earth, do you need a permit for a yard sale?
Are you making things up, again?
— —-

Haha, love it! Careful Ponzie – remember what happened the last time you though I was full of $h!t about how much lower private Ontario car insurance is? You ended up learning the hard way (hey, some folks need to).

I’d be happy to give you this info, but first – tell me how you think a bylaw like this is stupid, insane, a cash grab, and unenforceable. I wanna hear you say it out loud first.
——————
Remember when you claimed that Stiehl was Swedish.

#121 MF on 05.06.20 at 8:25 pm

#79 NFN_NLN on 05.06.20 at 6:42 pm

I think you completely missed my point.

I’ll repeat it:

A large portion of wealthy people in our population won’t be eating out, attending concerts, going on vacation, going on cruises etc. any time soon because they are 1) at risk of getting more sick than younger people 2) scared of getting sick.

Opening up the economy won’t help the young restaurant server who has 1/3 customers.

Understand now?

MF

#122 McSteve on 05.06.20 at 8:26 pm

Given the recent run-up in bonds…and the fact the current rates are basically zero(is zero not the lowest number?)…is there any potential for growth in bond ETFs left? Time to sell out of all bond ETFs?

#123 John in Mtl on 05.06.20 at 8:27 pm

“Over 700,000 homeowners have pleaded for mortgage relief. What does this tell us?

…In short, they own real estate they could only afford when a regular income was flowing. No savings, no reserves, lots of stress and debt.”

“…Beyond the personal grief, there are systemic wobbles.” – Garth

Tonight’s blog post looks to me like the banks are getting a bailout in disguise to stabilise the “systemic wobbles”. Imagine if all those folks can’t pay up and just say ‘screw it’ and jingle mail regardless of the consequences? The banks are so overloaded with RE debt backstopped by CMHC that they would keel over and crash the Canadian economy. Can’t allow that to happen, it would be a total catastrophe.

Also, I’m sure most levels of governments have a pretty good idea of the financial precarity of the average Canadian; they know what’s going on. Garth reminds us regularly about this. The federal gov’t did the only thing they could do – save the economy by fronting liquidity to the populace, to keep the whole edifice from coming crashing down.

#124 MF on 05.06.20 at 8:27 pm

81 Sail away on 05.06.20 at 6:45 pm

Lol if that represents our morality then someone either has to lobby to get that law changed, or, someone already did :(

MF

#125 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.06.20 at 8:31 pm

#47 A J on 05.06.20 at 5:12 pm sez:

“ I guess I see why some people hate socialism. Sometimes, it just goes too far. Where’s the personal responsibility?”
——————————————————-

I agree A J. Where is the personal responsibility? Why do we have society locked down for a virus? Why aren’t those who feel “vulnerable” whether it be thru real medical anomalies or irrational fear, take personal responsibility and self quarantine?

Inquiring minds wanna know.

#126 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 05.06.20 at 8:32 pm

I left Montreal on a very broke day in 1978. My CIBC account had $17.59 balance. It escapes me how I ended up in Toronto but I made it to T.O. via Flights through Nassau, Bahamas; Miami, Florida; New Orleans, Louisiana; Bakersfield, California and finally Vancouver, B.C. The Miami airport was a hotbed of sin where I paused a tad. Sometimes in life you just hang on like GE.

#127 Drinking on 05.06.20 at 8:36 pm

Scary Sh*t out there; life as we knew it will never be the same. There has never been a cure for the common cold and will never be one for this awful virus. We just need to make the best of it and move forward! :)

#128 binky barnes on 05.06.20 at 8:41 pm

All this hand-wringing makes me chortle. Let me assure you that there is absolutely NOTHING to worry about going forward. NOTHING!

How am I so certain of this? Canada has an “ace in the hole” as they say. He is an impishly handsome man who wears fancy socks and talks in soothing tones: Mr. Justin Trudeau.

I have all the confidence in the world in Mr. Trudeau’s vision and decision-making. Fear not, my friends, things will be fine.

#129 Flop... on 05.06.20 at 8:52 pm

Hey Trackie, while I’m writing you, i might as well put this how much article about one of our favourite things we like to bitch and moan about out here in tropical B.C.

Car Insurance.

I will probably pay around $2400 in a month or so for the privilege.

This article states that amount is the U.S average , so I am getting skinned about the same as my American cousins.

It hurts, but life goes on.

Anyone from Michigan on the blog?

Course not?

Can’t afford Internet after pay 9k for car insurance…

M45BC

Visualizing Auto Insurance Rate by State in 2020.

If you own a car, then your insurance bill is no doubt part of your budget. Rates can vary by several hundred dollars depending on where you live, and it turns out, the difference between full and minimal coverage makes a big difference too.

Michigan is the most expensive state to buy car insurance for both minimum ($5,282) and full coverage ($8,723) policies due to its unique requirement of no-limit personal injury protection.

Maine is at the other end of the spectrum with the cheapest rates in the country at just $1,268 for full and $489 for minimum coverage amounts.

The average cost difference between full and minimum coverage across the entire U.S. is $1,453.

For full coverage, the average cost around the country is just under $2,400 or about $200 per month.

https://howmuch.net/articles/car-insurance-rates-in-2020

#130 Paully on 05.06.20 at 8:52 pm

In case anyone is still wondering, CERB is pronounced “curb” because that what the Government did…kicked us to the curb.

#131 Anthony on 05.06.20 at 9:09 pm

#101-Doomer
“A lack of imagination is the greatest failing of most humans, but the greatest of opportunities for those with imagination.”

Imagination or magical thinking Doomer? They are one and the same. The reality is this 150 year experiment with fossil fuels is the only reason we have what has appeared to be “endless growth.” It’s going to end.

We burned wood, then coal, then oil, and nothing comes close to the energy embedded in gasoline. Oh I know, “they” will come up with something, right? Thus far, “they” haven’t.

Again, the planet is a finite place, there are hard limits and we are going to hit them.

#132 Last Gasp on 05.06.20 at 9:12 pm

Houses are valued against accesable credit and the assurance of future income to underwrite debt. When credit markets freeze, values plummet due to forced sales. Forced sales are triggered by estate events, tax, or catastrophic events.

New distressed prices define new price benchmark. 30 per cent of income earners have gone poof … crippled via the diabolic covid cough. No easy credit anymore … then no more pre 2019 priceing. Simple. Knock a zero off of your last asking price to get to a realistic post covid benchmark price.

Nothing personal but viruses by nature are indiscriminate and cruel just like mortgages.

#133 willworkforpickles on 05.06.20 at 9:22 pm

Private lenders in south central Ontario (Canada prime RE country) have already stopped lending. Many of them haven’t collected dime one on the millions they have at stake in the last two months.

#134 Tedfiftufour on 05.06.20 at 9:32 pm

9 Attrition on 05.06.20 at 3:54 pm
I took deferrals two mortgages. Poured it into TD stock on sale $47 pays 7% dividend right now. I’ve heard many others do the same to pay off high interest credit card debt.

#135 akashic record on 05.06.20 at 9:33 pm

#111 Stone
So, here’s my point. Shouldn’t that figure drop to 11 to 17 months, then 10 to 16 months, and then 9 to 15 months ad each month passes?

Boys and girls, children of all ages, might you all be deluding yourselves about any vaccine ever being developed? You can’t keep pushing out your 12-18 month forecast forevermore, can you?

Face it. It’s never gonna happen. Please use your brains.

While there, you can also face the fact that no RNA virus vaccine has been approved. It’s a long time promise… like cure for cancer, green energy.

Probably best this way. Imagine if the first one was pushed out in the current panic, used on huge segment of the population, and an unexpected, unforeseen glitch happens. It would not be without precedent. In fact, vaccine manufacturers in the US achieved immunity from compensation lawsuits, as a result.

#136 Ronaldo on 05.06.20 at 9:34 pm

#44 GrumpyPanda on 05.06.20 at 5:08 pm
About 35 yrs ago I asked my grandpa over his lifetime of observation what multiple of a family income was a house affordable. He said up to about 4 times. Once you went to 5 times somebody got sick or lost a job and that’s when the trouble started. I sometimes wonder what answer realtors would give.
——————————————————————
During the 80s recession when housing sales were bust, the realtors went crying to the government to include a second income in qualifying for mortgages. The government buckled and this would eventually lead to higher housing prices and higher multiple of family income. Once again, government intervention in the markets.

At the time the government of BC made a one time limited offer of cheap mortgages for persons building a home. Of course the only ones able to take advantage of this cheap money were people with money who planned to build anyway. My boss included. So that did not assist first time home buyers. It did create employment for a few out of work tradespeople.

#137 willworkforpickles on 05.06.20 at 9:38 pm

Many small business owners cannot operate at half capacity for long and may soon fold.

#138 Wrk.dover on 05.06.20 at 9:42 pm

#128 Flop… on 05.06.20 at 8:52 pm

—————–

Apples to apples. I bought mandatory $15,000 USD of coverage in AZ in ’93 for $100 USD/mo. I phoned my guy in NS and topped up another $2,000,000 CDN for a couple hundred dollarettes/yr.

#139 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.06.20 at 9:44 pm

Forecast says snow by Saturday in Toronto.

No need to drive north, people.

https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/05/snow-flurries-are-now-forecast-weekend-toronto/

STAY AWAY!

#140 DON on 05.06.20 at 9:46 pm

#109 Drill Baby Drill on 05.06.20 at 7:36 pm

“The best case we’re looking at … house prices getting back to their pre-recession levels, at the earliest, by the end of 2022.”
Not effen likely at all. CMHC is dreaming in technicolor.
I put forth this prediction right here right now many a constituent in mortgage trouble will be lookiing for a mortgage bailout very soon. Watch Trudeau open our wallets once more.
***********

That is just the CMHC press release this month. A year from now it could be revised again with the ‘Nobody saw it coming…no one could have predicted this and it’s not looking up any time soon’

Study the news headlines from 2006-2012 in the US (especially 2008 – 2010).

The end of a business cycle was coming and the virus acted as a catalyst. Not all jobs are coming back right away. As Nonplused mentioned, even the big consulting companies see a reduction in business services and revenue. Government contracts are also slowing down, I hope they start some big infrastructure projects to buoy the economy.

This is our new foundation. An already indebted nation. Back in 2009 the largest economy in the world was not able to avert a housing correction, but Canada will?

I know there’s a lot of weed in Canada, but where did the crack thinking come from?

On another note I know some folks who took the CERB but the money is not being saved. Now were are reading about credit card limits being cut without notice. Why would a lender do that?

#141 StoicOne on 05.06.20 at 9:57 pm

CHMC is the biggest mortgage insurance player in Canada and is not publicly traded. The other two players in the industry are Genworth Financial and Canada Guaranty. Of these, Canada Guaranty is privately held but Genworth Financial is traded on the TSX. Perhaps a big short through the purchase of puts would be a good medium term bet? Garth, what do you see as the potential impact on the other two mortgage insurance providers in Canada?

#142 NFN_NLN on 05.06.20 at 10:10 pm

#127 binky barnes on 05.06.20 at 8:41 pm

I have all the confidence in the world in Mr. Trudeau’s vision and decision-making. Fear not, my friends, things will be fine.

Open borders Trudeau who welcomes everyone. Except actual Hong Kong refugees.

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2020/05/04/freeland-mum-on-whether-hong-kong-asylum-seekers-will-be-granted-refuge-as-bigger-wave-predicted/

He can’t risk upsetting who he reports to.

Your ace-in-the-hole should stay in his hole.

#143 Felix on 05.06.20 at 10:12 pm

Want a canine?

Enjoy the eavestrough repair bills, in the $ thousands.

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.20 at 10:14 pm

@#139 Don
“Now were are reading about credit card limits being cut without notice. Why would a lender do that?”
+++++
Lenders are crapping their pantaloons at what may be coming.
On a side note .
A friend received an unsolicited text from CIBC notifying him that his Visa didnt need to be paid until …..July.

Anyone else get that text?

#145 Deplorable Dude on 05.06.20 at 10:16 pm

#136 Willworkforpickles…”Many small business owners cannot operate at half capacity for long and may soon fold.”

Seems the solution to this is for these businesses to demand a pretty significant rent decrease from their landlords. Do these REITs want businesses in their properties or not?

Unprecedented times…and all that…..

#146 NFN_NLN on 05.06.20 at 10:18 pm

#120 MF on 05.06.20 at 8:25 pm

Opening up the economy won’t help the young restaurant server who has 1/3 customers.

I see your point now. This is bad news for the Denny’s waitress working the 3pm-5pm dinner shift.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.20 at 10:19 pm

@#129 Paully
“In case anyone is still wondering, CERB is pronounced “curb” because that what the Government did…kicked us to the curb.”

+++++

Good one.

Is the Finance Minister reading this?

The responsible taxpayers that HAVE saved for a rainy day and dont need a cash hand out……are not amused….. and will remember this when our taxes are exorbitantly raised to pay for Trudeau’s largess…..come election day.

#148 Barb on 05.06.20 at 10:19 pm

“…the Government would stand prepared to inject capital into CMHC should additional capital be needed to deliver on our public policy mandate.”
——————————————–

So, more taxpayer dollars will be injected into an agency that depends solely on taxpayer dollars.

Flimsy house of cards.

#149 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.06.20 at 10:20 pm

ok ok, was just being an idiot.
Come on up anytime ya like.
Permission ganted.

#150 Sail Away on 05.06.20 at 10:26 pm

#102 Grunt on 05.06.20 at 7:26 pm

I’m in the Toronto downtown core and tent cities appear to be popping up in many parks since the lockdown. It’s desperate & heart breaking to see so many downtrodden, squatted in closed store & restaurant fronts and parks. With little more in life than a backpack. And NO prospects for employment or anything. So much for Mr Mayors promise to find community homes or hotel rooms for the destitute during the emergency.

Maybe it’s by choice or ignorance I have no idea. But amongst the cities gleaming towers lurks a desperate poverty a country like Canada shouldn’t be complacent or proud of.

——————–

Yep. Sure wish Canada had concealed carry handgun licenses.

I used to work late nights and early mornings, but no longer am comfortable going into the zombie apocalypse.

The truly shameful part of this is that upstanding, law-abiding citizens are not allowed to properly protect themselves. Especially the women.

#151 Ernesto on 05.06.20 at 10:30 pm

Capitalism is not perfect, except there is nothing better. For those talking about socialism I invite them to visit Cuba and stay away from fancy hotels, or risk your life visiting Venezuela, or give up all sense of privacy and visit China, which is the most xenofobic country where foreigners can never become citizens.

#152 Sail Away on 05.06.20 at 10:31 pm

#107 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 7:35 pm
#97 Flop… on 05.06.20 at 7:15 pm
#258 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 11:24 am

Hey Flopster, are guys still doing siding and eaves trough off of ladders? In my previous career, anytime the millwrights needed to do a lot of overhead work, I ended up renting one of these:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IJ2bOZUdVU

—————

Hey Trackie,

I work primarily on high end residential construction.

The main reason they don’t use Boom Lifts where I work are because of lack of spacing in between houses and established gardens impact that the city tries to protect with the Orange Mesh.

Condominium construction they are ubiquitous.

—————

The guys I got these lifts for just loved them to death, no way were they doing it any other way after they got their hands on one of those babies…

—————

I’m a big fan of pump jacks- all your materials and gear up 45′ in one swell foop.

#153 Sail Away on 05.06.20 at 10:37 pm

DELETED

#154 Sail Away on 05.06.20 at 10:40 pm

#125 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 05.06.20 at 8:32 pm

I made it to T.O. via Flights through Nassau, Bahamas; Miami, Florida; New Orleans, Louisiana; Bakersfield, California and finally Vancouver, B.C.

The Miami airport was a hotbed of sin where I paused a tad. Sometimes in life you just hang on like GE

—————

I wouldn’t have made it past Miami…

#155 Goober on 05.06.20 at 10:47 pm

Not to raise the alarm yet again, but the idea of universal guaranteed minimum income just won’t go away! Now a local Manitoba research firm has chummed the waters (curious how they don’t reveal who is sponsoring the study):
https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/coronavirus/two-thirds-of-manitobans-support-basic-income-570252842.html

The other spine-chilling result of this survey is where the fine people of Manitoba will be looking for the money to pay for all this post-pandemic largesse:

Wednesday’s poll finding 82 per cent of Manitobans support “increasing tax rates paid by large corporations.” The poll also found 75 per cent support “increasing income tax rates for higher-income citizens.”

I swear to dog that once all T2’s wheelbarrows of cash run out, we’re heading straight towards a universal basic income iceberg. Abandon ship!

#156 Audrey's World on 05.06.20 at 10:55 pm

#31 Sail away on 05.06.20 at 4:39 pm
I have to agree – it’s nice to stay home during quarantine and spend time improving your space. I wouldn’t trade this home equity for a volatile pile of money in a TFSA account right now (diversified or not). As for the post about the different laws…I’m a little worried.

_____________________

Once upon a time, there was a post about an outsourcing princess. They owned a house, didn’t sit on a pile of money and spent an outrageous amount of money outsourcing chores so they could live their life comfortability.

Well – outsourcing princess is working amid COVID-19 because it’s really practical to be able to fill multiple positions within a company. Investing time pays off in the long run. Hubby is still leisurely going to work because it related to essential services – during his downtime, he’s finishing the basement. No one is asking for a handout – we will come out of this with a mancave apparently.

As for the outsourcing fetish, we have to wait a few extra hours/days for online purchases and grocery deliveries.. we can accept that. No cleaning/laundry outsourcing at this time but that doesn’t mean we stopped paying them – everyone needs to eat right now.

I am not that wise but again, it seems like “slow and steady wins the race”…it’s not always about famine or feast. That applies to life, money and investing. Why is everyone trying to take over the world with their money, rental income and TFSA account? Also, life expectacity is still unknown but mine is a lot higher now without the GTA commute.

#157 twofatcats on 05.06.20 at 11:00 pm

Home prices actually increased in the Niagara Region in April:

https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/news-story/9971589-niagara-home-listings-sales-plummet-faced-with-covid-19-prices-up/

#158 Yukon Elvis on 05.06.20 at 11:13 pm

#22 tkid on 05.06.20 at 4:20 pm
Hi Garth, I know you’ve said in the past the banks have always paid out their dividends, but what are the odds that they cut their dividends if things continue to play out as not-the-best case?

Zero. – Garth

#90 earthboundmisfit on 05.06.20 at 7:00 pm
Zero. – Garth
Bet?
……………………………………

I’m with Garth on this one. If the Big Six banks were to cut dividends they would be perceived to be failing and the entire country / economy / currency would collapse. The government will bail them out to the nth degree.

#159 Bobby Bittman on 05.06.20 at 11:14 pm

#31 Sail away

A skilled backhoe operator has a the average single family home in the back of a demolition trailer in under 4 hrs. A job done right means they have a person on the hose to keep the dust down.

#160 fishman on 05.06.20 at 11:20 pm

Reality is Stark: You drive me crazy. You make perfect sense right up to the end & then finish off opposite to what I see out there. Divorce rates are going parabolic in the future? No. Canuckleheads getting free money. Deferred payments if necessary. Can’t drink with the boys. No sports on TV. A trip to C.Tire or H.Depot without a gossip stop at Timmys for 3 hours. Honeydo list getting crossed off. Little women in a pretty good mood. Taking the pressure off. A little down time. Smell of fresh bread. Realizing why they got together in the first place. They liked one another. And not that easy to upgrade after the bloom of youth is gone. Big re-evaluation going on around Canadian kitchen tables. How sweet life is. Thanks “lil potato” for that chance. Now, how to make a successfull exit from this rat race we got caught up in?

#161 not 1st on 05.06.20 at 11:32 pm

Well Billy Gates doesn’t seem to concerned about global warming.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-bought-43-million-san-diego-california-beach-house-2020-4

#162 TurnerNation on 05.06.20 at 11:55 pm

To understand economics understand people. To understand lineups of people clamoring for new builds…
I passed by a Covid testing center.
Picture a dozen 20-30-something age people lined up outside in the chilly 0-5 degree Celsius weather. All had both their hands up cradleling their phones, masked face tilted downward toward it. No hats or gloves. Definitely no talking, wearing that mask muzzle. A scene out of prison.

Anyway Let me get this straight. You think you might be sick so you line up outside in the cold weather for hours wearing no protection.
Sick people go to a walk in clinic or ER. Remember that?
Who stands around outside in the cold?
Truly humanity had lost their mind. Our elite rulers won fair and square I’ll give them that. Game over.

Also some say the long game is for us to get so upset over our elected officials behavior that we are left begging for a new world/global government to take it over. I’d give it a year for that.

#163 dosouth on 05.07.20 at 12:01 am

Guess Nanaimo hasn’t been affected……(wow…pump,pump,pump)

https://nanaimonewsnow.com/2020/05/05/nanaimo-real-estate-sales-drop-during-covid-19-shutdown-while-prices-increase/

#164 Dr V on 05.07.20 at 12:16 am

119 Ponzie – changing the topic does not disguise your ignorance of this matter.

https://canadianbudgetbinder.com/2018/08/25/garage-sale-permit/

#165 Dolce Vita on 05.07.20 at 12:27 am

End of 2019:

1. CMHCs book value was $276.259B.

2. “Revenues” of $4.437B ($2.04B of that from Gov Canada but gave back $2.02B in dividends to Gov Canada).

3. “Comprehensive” Income of $1.752B and

They take on $150B of bad loans from the Banks made to supposedly help:

“Free up liquidity” at the very SAME Banks.

Why bother to insure, incur Administrative Expense in the first place, if you’re going to assume the bad loan at face value regardless?

Get rid of CMHC and put this type of insurance in the hands of private industry instead (well, not AIG).

Watch the Banks lend more responsibly like, OVERNIGHT.

#166 Dr V on 05.07.20 at 12:35 am

95 Jag – now here’s an interesting one from awhile back

https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/we-dont-want-low-ball-offers-cmhc-firm-on-hiding-foreclosure-information-from-buyers

In some instances CMHC does wind up with the house.
But they don’t want that disclosed to potential purchasers as it invites low-ball offers.

Good or bad? i’ll go with good, as I don’t want my tax dollars making up the difference.

#167 Resources are not finite on 05.07.20 at 12:35 am

#130 Anthony

“the world is a finite place”

Anthony, tomorrow when you wake up, try walking outside. Look for a giant nuclear reactor in the sky that looks like a big yellow ball.

That object is not of the earth, but it makes things grow here, like trees and plants, that grow over and over again, as long as the yellow ball keeps showing up.

It also heats things and that heat can be captured, converted and stored.

I learned about the yellow ball in elementary school.

Where were you?

p.s. the ‘finite’ people have been predicting the world would run out of oil for at least 5 decades. Wrong.

Virginia alone has a 300 year supply of coal.

4th gen nuclear…oh forget it, you midwits will never learn.

#168 Dolce Vita on 05.07.20 at 12:41 am

Forgot to mention that Assets = Liabilities + Equity

Assets “were” = $276.259B
Subtract bad loans of $150B = $‭126.259‬B new Asset or Book Value (a 54% reduction in Asset or Book Value)

At a Net Income of $1.752B/yr it will take them about 86 years to get back to their 2019 Book Value.

Unbelievable.

If someone ran a company like that in Private Industry they’d be beheaded, drawn and quartered…for starters.

————————————

Canadian Taxpayers have got to be THE most docile, trusting (giving, caring, sharing) people on Planet Earth to but with this BS by Gov Canada.

#169 NFN_NLN on 05.07.20 at 12:43 am

WE DID IT. IT’S OVER.

The sign we have been waiting for. The democrats have already turned their efforts back to impeaching Trump.

See you again in (4) years. Peace.

#170 Silly little willie on 05.07.20 at 12:44 am

Interesting times indeed. However I feel fortunate to live off the grid 150 miles east of Dawson city Yukon. I’m totally self sufficient. I have used solar water and wind to my advantage. I couldn’t imagine living in a city these days. As I send this message from my sat phone, may god bless you all.
Silly willie signing off.

#171 Sky on 05.07.20 at 12:59 am

Shelter in place didn’t just kill the economy. It looks like it’s killing us now too.

“Most new Covid-19 hospitalizations in New York state are from people who were staying home and not venturing much outside, a “shocking” finding, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.”

“The preliminary data was from 100 New York hospitals…”

“It shows that 66% of new admissions were from people who had largely been sheltering at home. The next highest source of admissions was from nursing homes, 18%.”

“Less than 1% came from jail or prison, 2% came from the homeless population, 2% from other congregate facilities, but 66% of the people were at home, which is shocking to us…”

“This is a surprise: Overwhelmingly, the people were at home,” he added. “We thought maybe they were taking public transportation, and we’ve taken special precautions on public transportation, but actually no, because these people were literally at home.”

Cuomo said nearly 84% of the hospitalized cases were people who were not commuting to work through car services, personal cars, public transit or walking.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html?__source=facebook%7Cmain&fbclid=IwAR1QqwJI4y6JGFwOx659t22BVzZLvRSAg0eZqq4DJa9BsOTNZQ2BS6cJucw

Those California doctors were correct (viral video now censored). Your immune system NEEDS to be exposed to the local germs in order to function properly. Locking people up is just a repeat of the cruise ship quarantines!

In light of this evidence there is no possible reason for keeping us holed up any longer other than complete tyranny. Tyranny which will lead to an unprecedented global depression and will kill many of us by crashing our immune systems.

#172 Toronto_CA on 05.07.20 at 3:13 am

Here you go Garth. Coincedentally, the last business day before a lockdown easing is announced, the BBC push this news piece because everyone is afraid to leave the house:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52543692
“For the non-vulnerable population, coronavirus carries no more risk than a “nasty flu”, says Prof Mark Woolhouse, an expert in infectious disease who led the research.”

Funny how the narrative now needs to be let’s get everyone okay with working again. Right before the restrictions are set to end. Many of us have been saying that all along.

Here’s the bit I love:

“But he admits there will be otherwise healthy people who have died – as happens with everything from heart attacks to flu.

In future, we need to stop looking at coronavirus through such a “narrow lens”, he says. Instead we should take more account of the indirect costs, such as rising rates of domestic violence in lockdown, mental health problems and the lack of access to health care more generally.”

Not to mention the indirect cost of loss of liberty, and the direct FINANCIAL cost of losing your job, countries assuming massive debt, raising tax rates inevitable, etc.

Where’s Faron and Laadeedah or whatever to say the BBC is some right wing nutcase conspiracy mouthpiece and that everyone needs to be locked up until a vaccine is found.

#173 Cabin Cruiser on 05.07.20 at 3:24 am

Just in from Bruce of Traveling with Bruce. ALL cruises cancelled for remainder of 2020 and a few booking (fools money) cruises for 2021 but since he is a cruise specialist he gets the final word….NO CRUISES TILL 2022 (few exceptions) I posted this because aren’t cruise ships like high rise condos floating Airbnb and therefore a topic for discussion? No?

#174 Howard on 05.07.20 at 4:10 am

Garth you say the CERB can be extended, but realistically how long can this continue? The US can money print all it wants because its status as the world’s reserve currency ensures that no matter hows much it floods the system with USD, there will be sufficient eurodollar demand overseas to sop up the excess and prevent any meaningful drop in value. Not so with the CAD.

#175 Anna on 05.07.20 at 4:14 am

Garth – I would think that at the least some of the 700k homeowners who have asked for mortgage relief are doing so to invest while markets are down and make a bundle and don’t actually need relief. Is there any evidence to support this?

#176 Howard on 05.07.20 at 4:18 am

#133 Tedfiftufour on 05.06.20 at 9:32 pm
9 Attrition on 05.06.20 at 3:54 pm
I took deferrals two mortgages. Poured it into TD stock on sale $47 pays 7% dividend right now. I’ve heard many others do the same to pay off high interest credit card debt.

—————————————

I don’t blame you for taking advantage of this gift from Canada’s braindead government (CMHC sanctioned the bank deferrals), but does it not strike you as outrageously unfair that homeowners (and landlords for god sake!) get a mortgage holiday/deferral to play the stock market but renters don’t get a rent holiday/deferral to do the same? The “rent strike” does not count since it isn’t legal and ethical renters won’t take part.

#177 Howard on 05.07.20 at 4:22 am

Funny thing : in Australia, church and other religious services are still banned, but real estate auctions (which is how they seem to do things there) are allowed to proceed.

Shows you where the priority lies.

#178 Howard on 05.07.20 at 4:34 am

#67 Irish Stew on 05.06.20 at 6:24 pm
CERB – no more needed please.
Canadians
Exit
Returning
Back to Work

—————————————

Canadians Enriched for Relaxing in Bed.

I’m patenting that.

#179 Howard on 05.07.20 at 4:57 am

#28 Phil on 05.06.20 at 4:34 pm
I bought a townhouse in 1983, I bought it from CMHC. They discounted the mortgage to 11% from 15%, (yeah you read that right Mills, Boomers didn’t have as easy as you might think).

——————————-

Sure Phil.

What was the price of that 1983 house and what was your income?

I’ll wait.

#180 Wrk.dover on 05.07.20 at 6:11 am

#178 Howard on 05.07.20 at 4:57 am

Sure Phil.

What was the price of that 1983 house and what was your income?

I’ll wait.

—————————

Probably equal….

#181 Boomers lol on 05.07.20 at 6:26 am

#178 Howard on 05.07.20 at 4:57 am
#28 Phil on 05.06.20 at 4:34 pm
I bought a townhouse in 1983, I bought it from CMHC. They discounted the mortgage to 11% from 15%, (yeah you read that right Mills, Boomers didn’t have as easy as you might think).

——————————-

Sure Phil.

What was the price of that 1983 house and what was your income?

I’ll wait.

—————————————————–

Yes boomers always love to leave out their “back breaking” $50,000- $80,000 mortgages whenever they tell us about their tales of woe. And also how interest rates were only that high until the mid nineties and then started to collapse.

#182 Steven Rowlandson on 05.07.20 at 6:32 am

“Over 700,000 homeowners have pleaded for mortgage relief. What does this tell us?”

To be Churchillian about it I would have to say never in the history of Canada have so many paid far too much for so little , never!

#183 James on 05.07.20 at 7:12 am

#178 Howard on 05.07.20 at 4:57 am

#28 Phil on 05.06.20 at 4:34 pm
I bought a townhouse in 1983, I bought it from CMHC. They discounted the mortgage to 11% from 15%, (yeah you read that right Mills, Boomers didn’t have as easy as you might think).

——————————-
Howard replies:

Sure Phil.

What was the price of that 1983 house and what was your income?

I’ll wait.
—————

The implication being that the price was lower than now.

It was. Wages were much lower too.

But that is beside the point. I am tired of hearing millennials blaming Boomers for high home prices.

FACT: prices are determined by DEMAND.

FACT: Many Boomers are aging and selling/downsizing.

FACT: It ain’t Boomers that are engaged in foolish bidding wars, bully offers, and other insanity and stupidity.

FACT: The millennial generation is responsible for the insane price of houses in parts of Canada. FOMO, financial illiteracy, and the need to “keep up” are influences.

Stop whining like an immature child and take responsibility for stupid decisions. Learn from your mistakes instead of blaming others for YOUR mistakes.

That’s what grown ups do.

#184 Anthony on 05.07.20 at 7:14 am

#166-Resources are NOT finite

You should have continued on after elementary school. If your argument is we’re going back to Virginia coal and burning new growth wood to run Disney World and airlines, cruise ships etc. you will be disappointed.

Solar? Can’t run our economy at this scale at all. And of course, all the infrastructure needed to get solar running, indeed to harvest the wood and coal runs on… oil!

One day we will run out of oil, of course there’s a limit. However, the real concern today is running out of easy to get oil, and we are there now, which is why we need to blow up rocks to get it.

The planet is finite, it has limits, just like economic growth.

#185 MF on 05.07.20 at 7:41 am

5 NFN_NLN on 05.06.20 at 10:18

Yup. She will. And her income will suffer. She will spend less. People who depend on her have less. Now multiply that by millions.

I’ll say it again, “people at risk” represent a large and wealthy demographic, not just a few nursing home residents.

MF

#186 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.20 at 8:10 am

@#177 Howard

Canucks
Eat
Refried
Beans

Canada
Enriches
Royal
Bank

Cant
Everyone
Regurgitate
Burps

Canadians
Entertain
Relatives
Barbecuing

You can patent those as well. I’m done using them.

#187 maxx on 05.07.20 at 8:12 am

@ #16

Agree. One thing I’d add is that, by allowing incompetent fiscal players to be scraped and flushed out of the system, the overall system itself then becomes healthier. Far healthier.

Canada is currently propping up far too many irretrievably stupid people who evidently cannot buy sensibly nor balance their family budgets.

It can’t even manage a triage between those who genuinely deserve help and those who will turn right ’round and commit the same dumb mistakes they always have.

No. Accountability. Whatsoever.

I’m expecting a continuation of fiscal idiocy by this sorry excuse for government.

CMHC can store their operatic projections where the sun doesn’t shine.

#188 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.20 at 8:14 am

@#184 MF
“I’ll say it again, “people at risk” represent a large and wealthy demographic….”

++++

Good to know you have empathy for boomers

#189 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.20 at 8:21 am

@#181 Winston Rowlandson
“….never in the history of Canada have so many paid far too much for so little….”

++++

“Never, in the history of Canada, have so many, paid so much, for so little, for so long……
We will never surrender our mortgages, we shall fight in the banks and used car parking lots….. “

#190 BrianT on 05.07.20 at 8:22 am

#87-the Amazon Post has been extremely vocal about demanding that this lockdown continue indefinitely-now they have a poll which shows us all Americans agree-you gotta love the stupid sheep.

Polls everywhere show the same. People have been truly traumatized. – Garth

#191 Howard on 05.07.20 at 8:23 am

#182 James on 05.07.20 at 7:12 am

The implication being that the price was lower than now.

It was. Wages were much lower too.

But that is beside the point. I am tired of hearing millennials blaming Boomers for high home prices.

FACT: prices are determined by DEMAND.

FACT: Many Boomers are aging and selling/downsizing.

FACT: It ain’t Boomers that are engaged in foolish bidding wars, bully offers, and other insanity and stupidity.

FACT: The millennial generation is responsible for the insane price of houses in parts of Canada. FOMO, financial illiteracy, and the need to “keep up” are influences.

Stop whining like an immature child and take responsibility for stupid decisions. Learn from your mistakes instead of blaming others for YOUR mistakes.

That’s what grown ups do.

————————————-

I love how emotional Boomers become whenever someone points out the obvious fact of how easy they had it.

I did not “whine”. I asked a very simple question. Your response was far closer to the dictionary definition of whining than my simple question. And I realize wages were lower in 1983 (gee, no kidding). It’s the income/price ratio that matters.

Do you have evidence to back up the following three assertions (the aging part I’ll give you)? Just labelling them FACT (all caps!) doesn’t necessarily make them so.


FACT: Many Boomers are aging and selling/downsizing.

FACT: It ain’t Boomers that are engaged in foolish bidding wars, bully offers, and other insanity and stupidity.

FACT: The millennial generation is responsible for the insane price of houses in parts of Canada. FOMO, financial illiteracy, and the need to “keep up” are influences.

And it’s a bit rich for you to call Millennials financially illiterate when all Boomers had to do was follow the herd and buy a house in the 70s or 80s, sit on their rear ends for 40-50 years doing nothing, and retire in luxury selling the house for 20x what they paid for it….and they STILL couldn’t get it right considering how many of them are up to their eyeballs in debt with little retirement savings. If Boomers couldn’t figure out how to save for retirement and delay gratification given all of their tailwinds, why would you expect Millennials to do so given that they face mostly headwinds?

You are wearing out your welcome here with inane generalizations. – Garth

#192 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.07.20 at 8:35 am

#127 binky barnes on 05.06.20 at 8:41 pm sez:

“All this hand-wringing makes me chortle. Let me assure you that there is absolutely NOTHING to worry about going forward. NOTHING!

How am I so certain of this? Canada has an “ace in the hole” as they say. He is an impishly handsome man who wears fancy socks and talks in soothing tones: Mr. Justin Trudeau.

I have all the confidence in the world in Mr. Trudeau’s vision and decision-making. Fear not, my friends, things will be fine.”
—————————————————–
Signed,

Rosie Barton

#193 Flywest29 on 05.07.20 at 8:37 am

#171 Toronto_CA

Ya, CBC has similar article this morning. After months of scaring the shyte out of people. Now its time to go outside. Good luck with that MSM. You have scared entire populations into submission. People are scared to walk outside to get their mail cause of then24/7 trauma journalism.

#194 TurnerNation on 05.07.20 at 8:39 am

Posting again as things are moving so far. Some likely Structural changes:

1. Travel rights. Largely removed. Airlines, Greyhound bus, some Car Rental companies are going bankrupt.

– For years here I’ve said our rulers want us living in ‘smart cities’, off of the land and rural areas;
with very limited travel. I mean the electric cars – becoming mandatory in some countries within a few years – have not the range for long travel.
You will be in your Smart City, under total surveillience, earning your UBI stipend. The Cuba model, our leaders love that guy.
They tried this with Sept 11. Limiting our travel. Then afterwards overnight we saw the carry-on liquids ban and shoe fiascos. Those changes rolled worldwide,
overnight, no debate or vote or scientific study. That alone should show you that there is no local govt, it’s all a global system. This year they shut down the world’s economy overnight.
People already yelled at our forum host to “Go home”. The re-education plan worked. Only took a month.
From the onset of this takeover our rulers told us #stayhome.

2. Retirement pension fund? Don’t count on it. In past decade we saw all the world’s infrastructure snapped up by Pension funds. Airports, terminals, Stadiums and Malls. All empty now. Ontario Teachers’ and CPP pension funds are in it too.
– Teachers are not being laid off; and the government city employees which are, still will draw a pension. As this weblog says, commute.

– It’s really looking like forced global communism for many: UBI stipend then tiny Government pension.

– Not to mention the Communist Culture Revolution underway. All old cultural events are cancelled; assembly is banned; worldwide. The only programming allowed is State covid(Crown ruler)/fear programming. If this is not a new world order then tell us how/why?

#195 Headhunter on 05.07.20 at 8:41 am

Howard

Sure Phil.

What was the price of that 1983 house and what was your income?

I’ll wait.

—————–

Spot on mate! My 1st house was @12% interest 4 times my income actually less cause my wife at the time worked also.

Gartho is correct.. peeps that thought they were wealthy are ill-liquid. Cant sell and very few are looking to buy.. 50% haircut on housing now doesnt seem so far fetched does it?

Great re-set is here the “new normal” should have went on that vaca, bought that car/boat/rv whatever and enjoyed your freedom when you had the chance. Digital Currency on the way.. cash has “germs”

Dont forget your “Immunity Passport” so you can shop work etc etc etc

#196 Sanga on 05.07.20 at 8:42 am

I sure wish I understood the Ottawa RE market. I live in the west end. In the last 2 weeks, 3 houses were listed on my street at 30% over the inflated prices from 2 years ago. They all sold above asking as fast as it took for multiple offers to be received – around 2 days.

#197 BrianT on 05.07.20 at 8:45 am

@189Garth-even if you set aside the Amazon Post obvious conflict of interest it does seem incredible that the general public would be that far removed from this gang of posters here on this blog-example-82% said movie theatres should not be allowed to open-my guess is you might get 25% on this site if you asked that question.

#198 MF on 05.07.20 at 8:46 am

#187 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.20

Always did.

The idea that there is some conflict between millennials and boomers (our parents) is nothing more than a figment of your imagination…or online meme put forth by loud trolls. The kind not 1st seems to be exposed to. I didn’t know anyone still goes on twitter.

MF

#199 david prokop on 05.07.20 at 8:46 am

House on my street in Mississauga went on the market 2 weeks ago, asking price pre-virus level. Just saw a SOLD sign, if severe recession like the one we’re having can’t kill this market, then nothing will

You just devised a market report based on one sale, for which you have no price data? Impressive. – Garth

#200 Barb Cantor on 05.07.20 at 8:54 am

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-why-the-idea-of-trudeau-calling-a-snap-election-is-not-so-far-fetched

A few weeks ago Trudeau was calling us ” racists” for suggesting wearing a mask was a reasonable health strategy. Now Trudeau shows up in a mask. I’m confused, am I still a horrid racist or not?

In the same breath Trudeau insisted that asking for health assessments of inbound travelers was racist. Now, it’s determined that all public space must be assessed. Are we still supposed to listen to Trudeaus advice or not?

Trudeau- insisted “enough was enough” ( make angry camera face here) and insisted we not visit cabin country. But Trudeau took his security team ( approx 100 RCMP) and his personal staff ( 40-50 persons including full make up team and photographer) to his cabin for Easter. Huh?

Trudeaus Health Minister Hadju insisted that she had firm facts from Dr Tam, who in turned had assurance from WHO that it was nearly impossible to get infected from other humans. Now we’re locked in our homes and being threatened with jail time for walking in an empty park? What gives?

Will there be a rational approach for the country to get behind. Soon please.

#201 TurnerNation on 05.07.20 at 8:55 am

The new life in Kanada 2020:

– Wake up in your 350 squarefoot “Smart Condo”
– Eat your delivered breakfast ration and watch the State AM news update.
– You work at home of the banks, one of the few employers remaining.
– Your job there involves garnishing the wages of debtors. Initially you were apprehensive, one garnashee lives in your building even. But as time went on you become quite good at your job; achieving the most files handled per day. Your boss rewards you greatly.
– The corner of your PC screen has the live Covid numbers score. Win-Lost-Tied. You are pleased your Prefecture is keeping its numbers down.
– Evening is your delivered dinner; watching the State news PM update.
– Entertainment tonight is a virtual tour of a really cool place overseas your friend told you. So impressed were you that you made this place your new social media backdrop. It garnered many likes.
– You tend to your virtual anime dog – with its cheeky demeanor ; it has become so needy lately; you consider selling or trading it on the online market place for a more relaxing virtual pet.
– Next week you will vote online, for the Red party of course. They are the best choice as their actions resulted in very few new Covid cases this week.

#202 Penny Henny on 05.07.20 at 8:57 am

#75 Martin on 05.06.20 at 6:36 pm
I believe that many who have differed mortgage’s are just trying to preserve cash for things they need day-to-day. Adding some debt to your mortgage, over many years of paying it off he’s not that big a deal to preserve short-term cash flow. That’s the case for me, I could pay my mortgage. Feel much better knowing I have cash in the bank if anything was to get worse
/////////////

Differed mortgage is no different than a cheap HELOC.

#203 Stan Brooks on 05.07.20 at 9:07 am

So CHMC shields the lenders from ultra subprime crap advertised as ‘conservative, prudent lending’?

What a beautiful scheme, indebt the sheeple to the hilt, 3-5 times more than ‘normal’ and then cover those absolutely bad loans at the expense of the taxpayer while keeping rates low and guaranteeing inflation.
What can really go wrong?
Perpetum-mobile profit churning machine with no risk for the lenders.

#204 Headhunter on 05.07.20 at 9:19 am

#197 MF on 05.07.20 at 8:46 am
#187 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.20

Always did.

The idea that there is some conflict between millennials and boomers (our parents) is nothing more than a figment of your imagination…or online meme put forth by loud trolls. The kind not 1st seems to be exposed to. I didn’t know anyone still goes on twitter.

MF

______________

I usually scroll by MF but today I messed up! must be true cause you say so.. I guess you speak for the entire generation.. silly me.

Huge disconnect between the generations, just because you choose not to see it doesnt mean your assumptions are correct

#205 IHCTD9 on 05.07.20 at 9:23 am

#119 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.06.20 at 8:16 pm

Remember when you claimed that Stiehl was Swedish.

——-

I remember. I also remember owning that mistake.

Also, your reply above has left me with a delicious opportunity for some cutting invective, but I’ll let you off the hook this time…

#206 Ace Goodheart on 05.07.20 at 9:32 am

RE: #170 Sky on 05.07.20 at 12:59 am:

“In light of this evidence there is no possible reason for keeping us holed up any longer other than complete tyranny. Tyranny which will lead to an unprecedented global depression and will kill many of us by crashing our immune systems.”

Not sure where you are posting from, but in Ontario, Canada, we are not locked up.

We leave our houses whenever we like.

There is a direction not to be within 2 metres of anyone you do not live with, which I am following.

Restaurants and most stores are closed (but I can buy anything I like online and it is shipped to me, or I go pick it up).

I can drive up to my cottage, enjoy the weekend, and come back down on Monday or Tuesday or whenever I like.

There is no traffic at all. The 401 on Monday morning looks like a country road on a Sunday. I recently rode the subway at 8:30am on a Wednesday. I was the only person on my car.

No one is locked up here.

#207 Sail Away on 05.07.20 at 9:32 am

#158 Bobby Bittman on 05.06.20 at 11:14 pm
#31 Sail away

A skilled backhoe operator has a the average single family home in the back of a demolition trailer in under 4 hrs. A job done right means they have a person on the hose to keep the dust down.

—————-

Oh, you bet. Machines are the best by far for demo and terraforming. But if my daughter ever needs to escape confinement by digging a tunnel with a spoon, she’s got the experience!

#208 BrianT on 05.07.20 at 9:35 am

#200 TurnerNation-that was your best one yet-this whole scam is becoming so ridiculous that one has to laugh instead of getting upset with the sheep.

#209 Dharma Bum on 05.07.20 at 9:37 am

So, the experts are saying no return to “normalcy” until late 2022?

That’s not so bad. Not too bad at all.

In fact, it’s pretty good.

Pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8jx85_RyA8

#210 not 1st on 05.07.20 at 9:41 am

The MSM is already trying to spin some new fear. Mutations, fall spikes, murder hornets and climate change. Fear worked so well this time, have to double down.

I don’t know about you but the scariest thing I saw was Trudeau wearing a black mask yesterday. Looked like a low budget Darth Vadar.

#211 Flywest29 on 05.07.20 at 9:41 am

#208 Dharma Bun

“Experts”. That word has lost all meaning the last few months.

#212 GO TO THE COTTAGE on 05.07.20 at 9:43 am

Hey cottagers.

Go to your cottage on the Victoria Day weekend. In droves.

Bring your family, your friends, and your degenerate friends.

Take plenty of booze, have outdoor parties and barbecues, and wander around waving at the local yokels.

Remember, those jealous bastards hate you all anyway.

Spread the joy. Maybe they’ll all get sick, lose their jobs, and have to sell their crappy full time homes in cottage country for a discounted price.

Then more of us urban “cottagers” can buy up those discounted shacks, tear them down, and build decent summer homes in their place, and then we’ll have the whole area to ourselves.

Go to the cottage!!!

#213 Millennial Realist on 05.07.20 at 9:44 am

Boomer exceptionalism is crumbling, along with the status quo paleo-economy and house prices.

You were born on third base. You did not hit a triple, Boomers.

And now you’re being struck out.

#214 OK, Doomer on 05.07.20 at 9:44 am

#130 Anthony on 05.06.20 at 9:09 pm
#101-Doomer
“A lack of imagination is the greatest failing of most humans, but the greatest of opportunities for those with imagination.”

Imagination or magical thinking Doomer? They are one and the same. The reality is this 150 year experiment with fossil fuels is the only reason we have what has appeared to be “endless growth.” It’s going to end.

We burned wood, then coal, then oil, and nothing comes close to the energy embedded in gasoline. Oh I know, “they” will come up with something, right? Thus far, “they” haven’t.

Again, the planet is a finite place, there are hard limits and we are going to hit them.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Four words for you:

Gen IV nuclear reactors.

Gen IV is clean, melt-down proof and burns existing nuclear waste. This means that we can run for 50,000 years on the waste that we’ve accumulated so far. Is that forever enough for you?

If not, then in 50,000 years we will surely have figured out fusion and can run for 50,000,000 more.

Fossil fuels are needed to help us get to Gen IV nuclear. Solar and wind will not get us over that hurdle. They do not have the energy density.

If all that fossil fuels become is a 100 year stepping stone that got us to Gen IV, then so be it.

The stone age didn’t end because of the lack of stone. The oil age will not end due to a lack of oil. We’ll find something even better to burn.

#215 IHCTD9 on 05.07.20 at 9:44 am

#190 Howard on 05.07.20 at 8:23 am

If Boomers couldn’t figure out how to save for retirement and delay gratification given all of their tailwinds, why would you expect Millennials to do so given that they face mostly headwinds?
———— –

Millennials facing headwinds are those who stuck it to themselves by setting up shop in a big urban area.

Those out in the smaller cities have it better than any generation before them – by far. Up till the Mils came, no 20 something generation couple had a house, a new truck in the driveway, and a sweet quad/UTV in the garage.

Mills benefit massively on the consumer front – enjoying the huge, (and I mean freaking huge) reductions in costs due to globalized manufacturing, and the easiest, cheapest credit/mortgages ever seen on this planet. To say nothing of the benefits of being born into an age where the www was off and running.

All the benefits Mills have available to them are usurped by their environment if they decide to live in places like the GTA and GVRD.

The big city Mils screwed themselves singlehandedly.

#216 Sail Away on 05.07.20 at 9:53 am

And… markets cranking again. TSX up as well. About 1/2 the US markets. To make it up, TSX always wins downmarket days by plummeting at twice the rate.

#217 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.07.20 at 9:54 am

It will be freezing this weekend, with snow, anyway.

Our health care centres do NOT have the capacity to deal with all you southern hillbillies.

STAY AWAY!

The whole thing is going to be extended, people. This is not going to disappear conveniently in time for summer.

Come back to your cottage in 2021.

NOT BEFORE.

#218 Howard on 05.07.20 at 9:58 am

#214 IHCTD9 on 05.07.20 at 9:44 am

——————————-

I believe we’ve been over this.

Not every Millennial can move to Moosonee and work for Tim Horton’s for life. It would be great if that were the case, but it isn’t. For starters, I don’t think Moosonee’s subway system could handle the extra demand :)

Yes, some Toronto/Vancouver Millennials shouldn’t be living there and should leave. But I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that two metro areas containing 1/3 of Canada’s population should be devoid of workers in the 25-40 age range.

#219 Phylis on 05.07.20 at 10:02 am

83 BlogDog123 on 05.06.20 at 6:49 pm
In Ontariowe, during this pandemic, I wonder how much new debt is being created just from the ELECTRICITY subsidies (gov’t debt pile absorbing the true cost of electricity).

Lots of factories not at full capacity… yet wind and solar and oversupply mean we export electricity at a loss??

Businesses will be paying it later.

http://ieso.ca/Sector-Participants/IESO-News/2020/05/Deferral-of-Global-Adjustment-charges

Cool. Component costs are free at certain hours may 7th. Poke around here.
http://ieso.ca/Power-Data/Data-Directory

So, ya i’ld guess a loss at certain demand hours.
Hydro prices varies every 5 minutes and then i thing there is some averaging, supply and demand all day!

#220 Classical Liberal Millennial on 05.07.20 at 10:12 am

#214
You’re absolutely correct.

#221 tkid on 05.07.20 at 10:12 am

Garth, can we ban “Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!” They’ve made it plain they are NOT a member of my community, so why are they allowed to post here?

#222 Chris in Edm on 05.07.20 at 10:14 am

This is completely off-topic for today’s subject, but surely i’m not the only one to notice the seemingly (or I should say 100% most definite) lying in reported Covid19 cases by certain countries around the world? Most notably China. For the past 6 weeks probably, their daily infection rate gets reported in the single digits (I’ve seen 40 maybe once)… Considering that’s how much the 1million people in Sask are seeing a day and they’ve had under 6k cases vs China’s reportedly 80k, something is definitely fishy. It’s blatantly obvious and the fact that I’ve seen no news reports on it and can’t even really find any articles online is pretty troubling. From what I’ve seen, Mexico and Saudi Arabia #’s are probably skewed. And then there’s the obvious lack of testing in places like India and South America, but that’s a whole different topic.

#223 Sky on 05.07.20 at 10:24 am

@ Ace Goodheart #205

I’m in BC. Essential travel only (ie groceries or medical emergency), provincial parks closed, zero contact with grandkids, family not living in your house, friends etc.

I didn’t use the term “locked up”, I said “holed up”. But it might as well be locked up.

Lack of social contact and outings is killing my formerly high functioning 93 year old mother.

It’s also crippled one of my sisters and her husband who are now members of the Branch Covidians. Neither one of them will ever recover. They wallow in the virus. Constantly lysol down everything. All grocery containers wiped down with bleach. Perishables soaked in hydrogen peroxide before consuming. And they are passing this irrational fear and behavior onto their child.

Have you seen the scientific studies showing us that quarantining healthy people or social distancing is effective in containing a virus? If you have, please share. Just like I shared the data showing the OPPOSITE is true.

The long term psychological impact this will have on the children is too horrible to even think about. They are now being taught that their fellow human beings are nothing more than germ infested meatbags. And obsessive compulsive disorder has a dismally poor cure rate.

Even when our physical lockdown ends, it’s our mental lockdown and our inability to engage in rational thought or dialogue that will not only usher in tyranny but will in fact WELCOME it.

#224 Trojan House on 05.07.20 at 10:34 am

“People have been truly traumatized. – Garth”

You can say that again! None more so than Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! This person is deathly scared, excuse the pun.

#225 Sail Away on 05.07.20 at 10:35 am

#217 Howard on 05.07.20 at 9:58 am
#214 IHCTD9 on 05.07.20 at 9:44 am

——————————-

I believe we’ve been over this.

Not every Millennial can move to Moosonee and work for Tim Horton’s for life. It would be great if that were the case, but it isn’t. For starters, I don’t think Moosonee’s subway system could handle the extra demand :)

Yes, some Toronto/Vancouver Millennials shouldn’t be living there and should leave. But I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that two metro areas containing 1/3 of Canada’s population should be devoid of workers in the 25-40 age range.

——————-

Well, no. Many mills in the city are doing great and should stay if they want. Speaking of that, I saw Audrey posted today. Hi Audrey!

Those who aren’t doing well should evaluate options and pivot. The military, for one, will welcome you with open arms, feed you, house you, and pay you (a little, anyway). And a million other options exist. But you have to be willing to take them.

Boomers are there to learn from, not complain about. Complaining is a childish trait that should have been abolished by age 18.

#226 not 1st on 05.07.20 at 10:44 am

So 33M people out of work in the US. I think their employed population is $100M which is a 30% UE rate.

Ours will be higher tomorrow.

And now the economists are saying the reopening is too slow, supports too little and 30% of service sector businesses will never return. The rules they want to put on restaurants and public spaces are too onerous. Are you going to get swabbed by a waitress in a hazmat suit when you go out? I don’t think so. 6ft apart in a restaurant is impossible. Temp checks, questionnaires, new HVAC systems. Just fold it up and go do something else.

#227 IHCTD9 on 05.07.20 at 10:58 am

#81 Sail away on 05.06.20 at 6:45 pm
#30 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 4:35 pm
#281 MF on 05.06.20 at 2:02 pm
#275 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 12

Following the law is “pretty sad”?

Laws are supposed to reflect morality. If you disagree with one you can lobby to get it changed.

Believing certain laws exist solely for “revenue generation” just sounds like cynicism.

MF

————–

Hey, if you want to pay for a permit to have a yard sale because you think there’s some morality in that bylaw, fill your boots my friend.

Like I said: not worth enforcing? Not worth complying…

————–

I’m totally with MF on this. Quit being such a criminal, IH.

——

Yes, Ms. IH has me in therapy right now to work on my lawlessness.

The last straw was when I had a little campfire out back, and never got a permit for it.

It’s been building up for a while, permitless yard sales, little plumbing and wiring projects without approval, putting a few goldfish in my pond. I just can’t seem to stop.

Hopefully I can get fixed.

#228 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.07.20 at 11:04 am

#205 Ace Goodheart on 05.07.20 at 9:32 am sez, in part:

“No one is locked up here.”
——————————————–
Tell that to the factory worker that can’t go to work to support his family. Tell that to the restaurant or bar owner that can’t make a living because he can’t open his business. Tell that to the salon owner who can’t open her business and is broke.

Yep. No one locked up here.

#229 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.07.20 at 11:07 am

Honest to Dog I don’t understand how so many allegedly smart people can’t see outside the little tunnel of their lives.

#230 Yukon Elvis on 05.07.20 at 11:16 am

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.20 at 10:19 pm

The responsible taxpayers that HAVE saved for a rainy day and dont need a cash hand out……are not amused….. and will remember this when our taxes are exorbitantly raised to pay for Trudeau’s largess…..come election day.
………………………………………………

Problem is that on election day the responsible taxpayers will be outvoted two to one by the “gimme free stuff” crowd. The “givers of the free” will be re elected.

#231 IHCTD9 on 05.07.20 at 11:34 am

#217 Howard on 05.07.20 at 9:58 am
#214 IHCTD9 on 05.07.20 at 9:44 am

——————————-

I believe we’ve been over this.

Not every Millennial can move to Moosonee and work for Tim Horton’s for life. It would be great if that were the case, but it isn’t. For starters, I don’t think Moosonee’s subway system could handle the extra demand :)

Yes, some Toronto/Vancouver Millennials shouldn’t be living there and should leave. But I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that two metro areas containing 1/3 of Canada’s population should be devoid of workers in the 25-40 age range.
——-

The point was lumping all mills into one pile and then lamenting the raw deal “they all” got.

So maybe in the future when you discuss the plight of “the millennials”, you could be more concise and correctly designate same as the plight of the “urban millennials”. This is where you find mills that face stated “headwinds”.

Not all boomers had it easy either, my guess would be quite the opposite…

#232 Yukon Elvis on 05.07.20 at 11:39 am

Something to cheer us up this morning:

https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/299239/Local-man-s-song-and-video-about-Canada-goes-viral#299239

#233 BoomerKid on 05.07.20 at 11:43 am

Wondering whether you could do an article at some point on when it would be a good time to buy – what things to monitor etc. For example:

1) My retiree parents in their late 60s sold their paid-off detached house a couple years ago. They are looking to downsize, but in the crazy market in the last couple of years hadn’t found anything that made sense. They have the cash to buy and aren’t looking to make a quick buck on capital gains – just want to have a stable place to live for the rest of their lives. When should they jump in?

2) My partner and I in our 30s are thinking of starting a family. We both have stable decent income jobs that are pretty recession proof. We currently own a starter home with only about 30% left on our mortgage. The current recurring fixed costs are about 5% of our combined gross income and we have sufficient cashflow/liquidity in other savings and investments. We can stay here for while, but would be interested in upgrading to a “better” neighbourhood if there’s an opportunity. When might be a good time to jump in?

#234 Fused on 05.07.20 at 11:56 am

217 Howard
With all of the work from home should the millennials not be taking advantage of it. If you can move to a LCOL area go for it or is it perhaps that the status symbol of success by owning real estate that keeps people in a vicious circle of debt.
I do not understand why someone would want to buy real estate, such a waste of money and time.
The markets are delivering astounding returns compared to real estate, do not forget if you get downsized your frigged, like the 700k of people who live cheque to cheque.
Also please do not say it is for the family since when is it a good decision to have Dad working long hours and possibly two jobs, Mom works fulltime and a stranger basically raises your children after 18 months until 5 years. Then the school system raises your children with after school care until 12 and at that time they are allowed to be on their own until Dad or Mom gets home. All that time that is sacrificed never to get back all for a house, something that when you pass on will just be sold as part of the estate.
Time with your children growing up and experiencing all their firsts with them, instilling your values and beliefs, the memories created you can not put a price on it, but in a lot of peoples cases I guess you can.

#235 MF on 05.07.20 at 12:03 pm

17 Howard on 05.07.20 at 9:58 am

Yes we’ve been over that multiple times with IH already.

My take is a decade ago, the idea that millennials out of college in big cities were working at Starbucks was a thing.

It’s not anymore, and hasn’t been for a decade already.

IH is partially correct in that some millennials are struggling in the cities. He’s completely incorrect that “all” millennials are struggling in big cities and “all” millennials are doing fantastic elsewhere though.

There won’t be a mass exodus from major cities. Some welcome and much needed downward pressure on urban real estate, but that’s it. The over leveraged and multi unit holders will be in pain though.

MF

#236 Deplorable Dude on 05.07.20 at 12:10 pm

#205 Ace Goodheart…..” No one is locked up here.”

I thought the cops were handing out $800 fines to 10 year olds playing in Ontario parks?

#237 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.20 at 12:21 pm

@#234 MF
“He’s completely incorrect that “all” millennials are struggling in big cities and “all” millennials are doing fantastic elsewhere though.”

++++

Ahhh yes Minutiae Follicle ( Splitting hairs) speaks.

#238 MF on 05.07.20 at 12:39 pm

236 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.20

I heard that.

MF

#239 IHCTD9 on 05.07.20 at 12:59 pm

#234 MF on 05.07.20 at 12:03 pm

IH is partially correct in that some millennials are struggling in the cities. He’s completely incorrect that “all” millennials are struggling in big cities and “all” millennials are doing fantastic elsewhere though.
—- –

A 50 year old single dude renting a condo with no assets and so savings is not cool. It’s creepy.

Don’t believe me? Get a Tinder account, input the above description, and see how many hotties line up for a chance with you.

I think time will prove me mostly correct, it definitely has so far.

I also hope at some point you will be able to make an honest assertion which can stand on its own merit, without putting words in other people’s mouths , and without the historical revisionism regarding what was asserted by others.

#240 IHCTD9 on 05.07.20 at 1:05 pm

#236 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.07.20 at 12:21 pm
@#234 MF
“He’s completely incorrect that “all” millennials are struggling in big cities and “all” millennials are doing fantastic elsewhere though.”

++++

Ahhh yes Minutiae Follicle ( Splitting hairs) speaks.

Indeed, trying to make a point via the refutation of absolute statements. Weak as ****.

Especially since no one made said assertion in the first place…

#241 Ronaldo on 05.07.20 at 8:01 pm

#213 Millennial Realist on 05.07.20 at 9:44 am
Boomer exceptionalism is crumbling, along with the status quo paleo-economy and house prices.

You were born on third base. You did not hit a triple, Boomers.

And now you’re being struck out.
—————————————————————-
I don’t know why Garth has put up with you for this long. Getting very monotonous.

#242 Longterm on 05.08.20 at 2:08 am

Here’s a league table of country pandemic response / ‘bailout’. Canada has come off with pretty good results virus wise for relatively low cost as a % of GDP (8.5%) compared to others. We don’t even make the top 20.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52450958

#243 WAKEUP on 05.08.20 at 9:37 am

Worst jobs report in history, 14.7 % unemployment rate.
Dow’s up 300 points.
Don’t worry be happy.