This week BeeMo shocked many when the bank said it expected up to 80% of staff to stay home, post-virus. No cubicle farm. No collaborative work spaces. No elevators to floors in the sky. No gleaming bank tower. Another nail in the downtown coffin.
Daniel’s one of those financial worker bees. An IT banker dude who knows he’s not going back. “Like many others I’ve been forced to work from home for the last two months. Now thinking about the days where I would spend my lunch discussing your blog and the market with my coworkers seems nostalgic.”
By the way, the Bank of Montreal has 45,500 employees. Cutting thirty-six thousand of them loose – many in Toronto – seems like a big deal. What could this mean? Danny continues…
Since I will not be going back to my downtown office after this is over I have decided to ditch the concrete shoe box I live in. I gave my landlord two months notice and will be moving back into my parent’s house in the burbs for the time being. Instead of paying a substantial amount each month to be close to an office I will rarely set foot in I’ll be investing a lot more.
This is where it gets interesting, my unit has been on the market for three weeks and there have only been two viewings. My overly confident landlord thought he could get more than he was already charging me. He is now growing desperate at the thought of the unit sitting empty for a while. A realtor friend of mine says around the same time last year there would have been multiple offers within a week. The inventory hasn’t been this big in the last five years and it grows each day. Thanks to real estate data now being available to the public, we can see listings being pulled off and relisted because they were there for too long. As you already know this is merely the tip of the iceberg and the real blood bath will be this fall when mortgage exemptions are up.
Hmm. Remember what a certain pathetic blog has been telling you?
The downtown condo market is living on borrowed time. An anachronism. Amateur landlords are in serious trouble. The Airbnb collapse just makes it worse. Rents and prices down. Post-Covid migration will bite urban values. The mortgage forbearance crisis is coming this autumn. And the bounce summer may bring could well be a bull trap.
Unemployment of 18% in April will not be 5% in July. Or December. Or next March. Or maybe this decade. The economy is being pulled into disinflation as the structure we had a few months ago is unwound. Low interest rates are bad news. Demand will trickle back. Not gush. Governments that spent big to support people will have a right to take back much when the crisis ends. Taxes. Many businesses are not re-opening. Movie theatres, arenas, convention halls, hotel ballrooms, underground food courts and most restaurants will be empty, or close to it, for months. Or years. Mass transit – the subways of Toronto and Montreal, the SkyTrain, GO Transit system, the CTrain – will lose ridership, become uneconomic and curtail service.
What does this mean?
One consequence is the devaluing of real estate close to city cores – since those cores will have fewer white-collar jobs, workers or appeal. Why would people continue to spend $2 million for a flimsy house on a 30-foot lot in the 416 mid-town hood of Leaside, for example, when a 15-minute car ride to downtown is no longer the big draw? Move 30 minutes north and save a million.
You might have seen the April real estate board numbers by now. Sales crashed everywhere. Down 63% in Van, 67% in Toronto, 63% in Calgary, 59% in Victoria. All these boards sought to blunt current price trends in their media releases with year/year comparisons. In Toronto, for example, prices have actually dropped to year-ago levels, wiping out twelve months of gains with an April decline of 11.8%. Inventories have crashed lower as sellers recoil. The sales-to-listing ratio has plunged. There’s just no positive glimmer in these stats, even as five-year mortgage rates spiral towards the 2% mark.
These are the lowest sales volumes in the lifetime of virtually every agent and broker. No showings, no sales and virtually no market mean families have their net worth trapped inside assets which the virus has turned illiquid. If this continues, it’s a nightmare scenario for households with income stress, no reserves or liquid wealth, uncertain employment and mortgage payments set to resume in September – after the government pogey has run out. If they need to exit, will they be able?
Combine that with the potential deurbanization that the Bank of Montreal’s promulgating and you can ask: whither housing?
One scenario: a torrent of listings by late summer as financial stress mounts. Forced sales. Foreclosures. Mortgage defaults. Job loss. Wary buyers. Fewer immigrants. Risk-averse lenders. “By 2021, as the economics of housing returns to fundamentals, we expect an array of factors to result in a weaker market with some downward pressure on prices,” say the economists at CIBC – another bank about to tell people to stay home.
Meanwhile, consider Dan. No more office downtown. No more condo. Moved home to the burbs. City landlord in distress. Will probably list. Too late.
Does any of this sound temporary to you?
288 comments ↓
Nearly 400 employees at a Missouri pork plant tested positive for COVID-19. None of them had symptoms.
https://www.businessinsider.com/hundreds-food-plant-workers-tested-positive-for-covid-19-asymptomatic-2020-5
#1 the perfect into to what I’d already written. Only meat plants get affected.
Keep an eye on your food supply. What the globalists got cooking up.
(And somebody pointed out, they got us believing that No symptoms is actually a symptom. And that having human rights is selfishness. The war is won. Every country fell in only one month’s time.)
1. Those closed meat plants – and only the meat plants?
Tyson meats is affected even in Canada. Fake meat is on the menu, this virus is getting the global agenda done.
“In early 2018, Tyson, through its venture capital arm Tyson Ventures,[13] invested in Beyond Meat, Memphis Meats, and Future Meat Technologies,[14] companies developing plant-based meat substitutes and cultured clean meat, respectively. Former CEO Tom Hayes said that “it might seem counterintuitive”, but the investments are part of an effort to meet future consumer demand in a sustainable way”
2.
https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/retail/amazon-looking-to-grab-distressed-retail-for-its-expanding-grocery-play-104155
Amazon is ramping up its efforts to lease retail real estate for its in-the-works physical grocery store concept, which will be larger than existing Amazon Go cashierless stores and carry a wider variety of merchandise.
In such a scenario, Amazon would presumably be negotiating from a position of even more strength, considering the stress that the retail market is under because of the coronavirus pandemic. Many big-box locations were vacant even before the crisis.
Long live the burbs!
Funny planes flying over Cowtown today. Not a big jet, but not a small one either, very very quiet and flying at what I think was low altitude. ( had a Gimli Glider moment as I watched it from the street). I could almost read the serial number, and its flight path wasn’t the norm. It almost seem headed up Crowchild Trail in the direction of High River for those who are familiar with the layout of the city. 30 minutes later a second one ( or the same one) on the same, low path.
White with light blue contrasts. Looked expensive. Where’s Billy Bob?
Stay away is so right!
All you GTA cottage tourists need to sit tight and stay away from our communities.
THAT’S AN ORDER!
Kawartha, Muskoka, Erie shores, Collingwood, Grey-Bruce, you name it.
Don’t put OUR safety in jeopaardy by coming for meaningless visits!
Most of the people being treated and tested for Covid in our small hospitals are already bozos from Toronto who are ‘just visiting’. We DON’T have the capacity for you all if you get sick! And you’ll steal the ability for us to treat ourselves.
If you do not stay away, small communities have the legal emergency power to seize your property and sell it for 25% of the assessed value, then withhold the proceeds as a penalty for your EXTREME NUISANCE AND ENDANGERMENT.
And WE WILL. WE DO NOT CARE.
Go back to the cottage in 2021.
NOT A DAY BEFORE!
p.s. Not a prop plane as I have special affection for those…
Garth: “…which the virus has turned illiquid.”
The coronavirus is known for its clotting effect in human blood. Who knew it could apply to RE?
Yikes. Thanks for the post Garth and thanks for the forum. Despite some yelling back and forth, I’ve learned a thing or two I didn’t want to hear or was pretending not to hear. I’m sure you will all be sad to know this is the last post from me until I can regain some self control w/re arguing here.
But doesn’t that also spell trouble for the REITs you were praising a couple of days back? Agreed it’ll be way worse for amateur landlords though…
I praised no asset, but showed what the current commercial rent collection rate is on one residential trust. – Garth
@Jaguar
https://www.adsbexchange.com/ and go to virtual radar. If it’s (the plane) transmitting, it should show up.
(people – like you and yours truly listen to broadcasts and feed them into the global net – most certainly you have coverage around Calgary)
#236 Attrition on 05.05.20 at 1:06 pm
Again, the death rate is “minuscule” because of the measures that have been taken. I’d rather the government overreacted than have many people lost their lives because the government didn’t do enough.
Yes, the solution shouldn’t be worse than the problem itself, and I’m all for striking the right balance.
What actions should be taken then to stop the spread to satisfy the “freedom loving” like yourself?
Your “courage” for exposing yourself and others to the virus is at the expense of lives.
The “infinitesimal” deaths now is just half the story. There are long-term health impacts to the people infected with the virus. How many deaths will this lead to long term? No one knows.
It will be interesting to watch the real estate sales “summer season” this year.
A flurry of sales will have the realtors crowing at the tops of their lungs, “Buy now or be left out forever!”
Sept 1st could be historic.
This virus has basically exposed the entire western world phony economy. Its all based on extreme debt and artificially low interest rates. Central banks have created the mess we are in by consistently interfering in the market economy and have now gotten to the point where they are the economy. If you take out the trillions from the Fed (printed out of thin air) and other central banks then we are in a depression for decades.
Yet so many are in awe of these people when all they do is ensure that we end up with the crash that ends all crashes. Gold has figured it out..why hold Fiat currency when governments created trillions of it in the blink of an eye.
It amazes me that Garth is so in awe of these people after all the damage they have caused. But everyone wants a fix now even if it kills them in a few years..the stock markets are now pumped up on funny Fed money until the whole thing comes crashing down in a year or so.
Garth, just a reminder of how much everyone here appreciates this “financial blog” during this time. Being a constant source of comic relief is exactly what we need to keep our spirits high.
Some of the special shout-outs (I know I missed a lot):
CanadIain – Asks why we can’t just print money forever.
Lahdeedah – Keeps coming up with a 12.29% mortality rate because the doesn’t understand math.
Millennial Realist – Hopes boomers and their “ancient and irrelevant” ideologies die; while also complaining we’re not doing enough to protect Boomers?
What we have here is a real-life “Dinner for Schmucks”.
Thank you Garth!
Realtor losing his mind:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/brampton-call-to-prayer-peel-1.5556043
intolerant bigot, but is a realtor and immigration consultant (likely scamming newcomers into buying his overpriced homes).
https://github.com/Tjoosten/Funny-code-comments/blob/master/Temporary-my-ass.md
// somedev1 – 6/7/02 Adding temporary tracking of Login screen
// somedev2 – 5/22/07 Temporary my ass
Can someone explain what happens if you lose your income due to Covid-19 restrictions and eventually CERB runs out for you. Do you just get on EI then? Also how likely is it the feds just extend CERB if we haven’t squashed the curve yet?
If the answer to those is “yes” and “likely” then wouldn’t that soften the blow to the all important housing market?
Rents don’t seem to be dropping yet in Vancouver. Many one bedrooms still 2K and these are with shared laundry rooms.
#5 Stone on 05.04.20 at 4:24 pm
In all honesty, do I actually need to care about any of this?
I don’t own a house. My assets are all liquid (7 figures). I’m employed (even if I get cut, I get nearly 2 years of severance). If it was really necessary, I can pick up and move (to a lower tax jurisdiction).
What am I missing here?
Nothing, because it’s all about you. – Garth
———
So the above was for yesterday. Any changes since then? What am I missing today? Lol
Garth I recall several years ago you were calling the end of suburban living. Times have certainly changed
Wasn’t me. – Garth
#4 the Jaguar on 05.05.20 at 3:09 pm
Funny planes flying over Cowtown today. Not a big jet, but not a small one either, very very quiet and flying at what I think was low altitude. ( had a Gimli Glider moment as I watched it from the street). I could almost read the serial number, and its flight path wasn’t the norm. It almost seem headed up Crowchild Trail in the direction of High River for those who are familiar with the layout of the city. 30 minutes later a second one ( or the same one) on the same, low path.
White with light blue contrasts. Looked expensive. Where’s Billy Bob?
______________
Same thing over Burnaby last week. Completely silent, very fast and scary low. It circled 5 or 6 times and then flew away. Definitely a jet. With almost no air traffic lately, it stuck out and lots of guys on the jobsite saw it and everyone thought it was strange.
the Jaguar on 05.05.20 at 3:09 pm
Apparently Nav Canada just doing test flights on approach paths.
Just kidding. It’s actually the Americas looking at the Canadian airports. Need to see how good the runways are. Justin has them up for sale. Have to sell something to pay for all this spending.
Today’s episode of humans not touching humans is for all the wrinklies out there, the 2nd largest group of STD spreaders according to statistics.
I give you, Dan Hill, Sometimes when we touch…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IATz8ZVTALo
A thing invisible to the eye is wreaking havoc on humanity. And it is driving me mad.
Sure hope, PMJT doesn’t use immigration and the CMHC Newcomers scheme, to prop up real estate value. It’s unfair to established citizens and exploits immigrants. Cunning for developer campaign contributions though. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/finance-and-investing/mortgage-loan-insurance/mortgage-loan-insurance-homeownership-programs/cmhc-newcomers
#7 Faron on 05.05.20 at 3:12 pm
Dude your posts are among the best on the blog.
We need more of you, not less.
MF
#5 – Good luck with the May long weekend coming up.
Look the other way?
What you can’t see can’t hurt you?
The Dow’s up.
Be happy don’t worry.
Its a good thing Smoking Man that you returned to Canada for your professional health care treatments and palliative care. We do have world class hospitals here and lead in Cancer treatment. The view from out west doesn’t look too good with Covid-19. Contracting a virus like this while under treatment is very risky. This is just the one county alone in California. Besides its always better to be around friends and family for support during any crises. Keep safe!
https://patch.com/california/newportbeach/covid-19/2020-05-05
#7 Faron
Come on man, shake it off.
No one likes a quitter.
I had not thought about businesses telling their workers to keep working from home, but it is true, a lot of companies will give up their downtown real estate building which will put pressure on downtown condos and houses. All of this on top of the job losses in so many sectors and will take years to get back to 2019 levels means that real estate is going to crash. It is estimated that unemployment rate is at 25% in April so even if it slowly falls in to the mid teens, there are going to be a lot of people who will not be able to afford their current mortgages.
@#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.05.20 at 3:10 pm
Stay away is so right!
All you GTA cottage tourists need to sit tight and stay away from our communities.
THAT’S AN ORDER!
Kawartha, Muskoka, Erie shores, Collingwood, Grey-Bruce, you name it.
Don’t put OUR safety in jeopaardy by coming for meaningless visits!
Most of the people being treated and tested for Covid in our small hospitals are already bozos from Toronto who are ‘just visiting’. We DON’T have the capacity for you all if you get sick! And you’ll steal the ability for us to treat ourselves.
If you do not stay away, small communities have the legal emergency power to seize your property and sell it for 25% of the assessed value, then withhold the proceeds as a penalty for your EXTREME NUISANCE AND ENDANGERMENT.
And WE WILL. WE DO NOT CARE.
Go back to the cottage in 2021.
NOT A DAY BEFORE!
_____________________________
lol, maybe the cottagers should stop paying their property tax. literally nothing you can do to stop them.
DELETED
@#18 Stone on 05.05.20 at 3:47 pm
#5 Stone on 05.04.20 at 4:24 pm
In all honesty, do I actually need to care about any of this?
I don’t own a house. My assets are all liquid (7 figures). I’m employed (even if I get cut, I get nearly 2 years of severance). If it was really necessary, I can pick up and move (to a lower tax jurisdiction).
What am I missing here?
Nothing, because it’s all about you. – Garth
———
So the above was for yesterday. Any changes since then? What am I missing today? Lol
________________________________
a brain?
@#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 3:33 pm
It will be interesting to watch the real estate sales “summer season” this year.
A flurry of sales will have the realtors crowing at the tops of their lungs, “Buy now or be left out forever!”
___________________________
and the dumb and dumber crowd willl be fooled by it as per usual
Well that’s not exactly a fair comparison, running away to live for (probably) free at mom & dad is not something I’d be exactly proud of.
Not to mention, just like past crisis, middle class jobs will be cutting back. For now ‘working from home’ is reluctantly being tolerated for those desk jobs.
Just wait until the trickle effect of all those McJob losses translates upwards. Won’t take long for corps to realise many white-collar jobs are not all that required.
What’s located below all the bank towers in Downtown Toronto? It’s the world’s largest underground mall – The PATH system.
Many chains and also many small businesses. This is the war: end independence and small businesses.
– Secondary is the War on Travel. Already a $100 airline ticket costs $200. The Sept 11 fees, carbon taxes, taxes on top. Airport Improvement fees (private pension funds own many airports – this is whom you are serving).
Today car rental companies going BK.
– Electric cars have not the range for long trips.
– Our elite rulers told us from day one, #Stayhome. And stay off the Crown land: parks and beaches are closed.
– Our right to travel is almost gone. Wait until the new regs of proof of health before you can leave even your house.
– Ontario forbidding cottage owners from using their seasonal properties.
Terr0rists and Viruses – the unseen ‘forever enemy ‘used to imprison us.
Stay home Bee-mo employees. Order from AMZN only.
Without the Mark you cannot travel.
Well i think that there are and will be significant structural changes in many areas of the Canadian Economy,not to mention the rest of the G20
The Real estate “Ponzi Game” that has been in play particularly in Canada is over look out below:
Sfd in major markets yyz yvr including anywhere within 200 km Down at least40% By this time next year. Condo Garbage: NCV no commercial value 30-50 cents on the current dollar cost/not value that never exhisted
Commercial : wow potentially the worst to be hit could loose 70% in the next year. From a investment point of view: none of the above dangerous play.
#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!
——————————————-
First they came for the cottagers, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a cottager…
I praised no asset, but showed what the current commercial rent collection rate is on one residential trust. – Garth
________________________________________
meanwhile… trouble everywhere else…
RioCan says it collected 55% of its rent in first-quarter
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/riocan-says-it-collected-55-of-its-rent-in-first-quarter-1.1431651
Airbnb is cutting 25% of staff amid global travel slump
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/airbnb-is-cutting-25-of-staff-amid-global-travel-slump-1.1431840
more stories to follow
#10Moller-you are afraid of the virus-you are not afraid of the things causing 93% of the deaths in Canada (99% for younger Canadians)-simply because you have been brainwashed-basically hypnotized by the MSM. Only the virus can get Moller-Moller is immune to everything else-in fact for the last couple months nobody has died of anything in Canada except the all mighty Wuhan flu.
#10 Moller on 05.05.20 at 3:33 pm
#236 Attrition on 05.05.20 at 1:06 pm
Again, the death rate is “minuscule” because of the measures that have been taken. I’d rather the government overreacted than have many people lost their lives because the government didn’t do enough.
Yes, the solution shouldn’t be worse than the problem itself, and I’m all for striking the right balance.
What actions should be taken then to stop the spread to satisfy the “freedom loving” like yourself?
_________
Hi Moller..you sound reasonable. To answer your question, read what Lord Sumpton put it in his brilliant OpEd last week:
“We, too, have to ask ourselves what kind of relationship we want with the State. Do we really want to be the kind of society where basic freedoms are conditional on the decisions of politicians in thrall to scientists and statisticians? Where human beings are just tools of public policy?
A society in which the Government can confine most of the population without controversy is not one in which civilised people would want to live, regardless of their answers to these questions. Is it worth it?
My own answer is no. Guidance is fine. Voluntary self-isolation is fine, and strongly advisable for the more vulnerable. Most of them will do it by choice. But coercion is not fine. There is no moral or principled justification for it.”
Let me get this straight.
A virus with a fairly low mortality rate that will…
a) peter out naturally, or
b) result in herd immunity, or
c) die off when a vaccine is developed in the next year or two, or
d) have greatly reduced impact from better treadments, or
e) all of the above
…has turned real estate into mush.
But what about this tasty chart showing historical real estate values in Canada:
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/canada/house-prices-growth
Granted it only goes from 1982 to 2018…but nothing too scary there.
Short term blip, nothing more.
I have been warning friends for numerous years that the appeal of Toronto and other big cities will wane as quality of life declines and expenses rise due to increased density while technology advances lessen demand for an “in city” location.
Seems to be working out that way finally.
Check out the benefits of staying indoors for 4 months:
https://twitter.com/WingGirlTrade/status/1257759530202664966?s=20
#19 Gb on 05.05.20 at 3:48 pm
Garth I recall several years ago you were calling the end of suburban living. Times have certainly changed
Wasn’t me. – Garth
I think Garth was mentioning or maybe other media outlets noticed people migrating to the core of the city to avoid the cost of the commute. I think Garth calls it the soul sucking commute.
It what made me decide to move downtown and pay rent to an amateur instead of staying in my parent’s basement at half rate of the market’s leases, I don’t mind giving cash flow to my aging parents, but I got married and my brothers didn’t want to move out, I am one of four.
GO transit monthly costs raise higher than inflation and salary wage, made no sense to pay rent on a GO line, as Mississauga for example. Marry your roommate and share the burden, or if you are rich enough with high income or capital than don’t. Society is designed as a household income, not as an individual salary.
It different for owners of course, they don’t live off salary. If they are successful owners, they would have positive cash-flow and employ more people for pay roll tax.
But yeah, Garth isn’t the CERB a forgivable loan? It counts as income and 100% applied to your marginal rate. Would they recover the capital back?
I wonder how Daniel’s parents feel about moving back home.
Seems pretty selfish to do that to your parents and gloat about how much extra money you’ll have to invest while being a sponge.
Grow up young man!
I work for a quant fund with offices around the world where currently 98% of staff are working from home. The partners feel that we are only working at 70% capacity and are preparing plans to reopen our offices as soon as local authorities allow.
For me personally I find people have become less responsive – not picking up the phone or avoiding questions / tasks that are difficult.
There is less collaboration and camaraderie.
I don’t think 80% working from home is feasible in the long term without productivity suffering.
Maybe instead of working in a bank tower downtown they will work out of a warehouse in Scarborough.
#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.05.20 at 3:10 pm
Lol ok deputy Barney Fife
I know what “inflation” and “hyperinflation” are. Can one of you economic gurus (or Garth) explain what “disinflation” and “deflation” mean to the average Joe?
Folks,
Buy homes in lower BRAINLAND BC for 7-10% appreciation every year. Don’t miss the bus. Historical data is evidence, not some BMO analysts sitting in his Toronto office.
Funny how Jerome Powell, who made his fortune in PE (Private Equity) has provided the environment to prop up all those PE junk financing instruments that his friends used to leverage up and get their equity OUT of their “investments”, some with pretty large ‘special dividends’ to themselves.
No one is even talking about this.
Funny that.
Financial illiteracy must extend to financial journalists as well.
Faron- I don’t like most of what you say but I respect your right to say it. If those you don’t agree with those who piss you off so much you might wanna take a look in the mirror and figure out why you’re so intolerant of other opinions.
Jus’ sayin’.
Interesting post. One wonders how many of the employees who used to work for the banks will end up losing their jobs. Also, what will happen to all those huge downtown towers? As for housing, this may be where all too many learn that their property isn’t going to realize anything near its former assessed value should they have to sell. Throw in the hostile taxation environment for property owners in places like YVR & expect the fiscal blood to run freely. Looks like the bankruptcy business is set to boom.
Noted a headline earlier today that said AirBnb is laying off 25% of its staff. Sign of the times.
Yes its temporary, you just don’t see it yet. Too drastic. Like everything people were doing before was optional. Yes I know there’s a virus. Prefer view expressed by Sam Zell.
Billionaire Sam Zell Sees Economy Permanently Scarred by Pandemic
Erik Schatzker
Bloomberg May 5, 2020, 8:00 AM EDT
Anything, I have ever remember when I look back is by the sea and under sunlight, the rest is noise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNEvS-1ZGgM
re: banks and employment
BMO’ “work from home” policy is just the beginning of changes at all the large Canadian banks I fear.
There will be a number of branches closed and people let go as a result in addition to a lot of headcount “rationalization” as their massive and underutilized investments in IT bear fruit.
I’m thinking at least 20% fewer branches and overall headcount – to start.
Maybe it will be time revisit investing aggressively in Cdn banks after we see how bad their loan books get hit.
It could be 3 years before downtown commercial real estate regains its dominance. There will be vultching on multi million dollar properties, and they then get high end HVAC conversions.
So some new business possibilities, but this class of property will eventually come back with a vengeance.
Real estate is just another asset class, buy when it is low!
Oh rats, prices haven’t actually crashed yet…
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/amp31468624/covid-19-spread-sewer-poop/
Covid can live in poop and could be spread via flatulence.
People should be cautious at the ball game or restaurant or anywhere the essence of the people before you is lingering in the air.
It’s a crap shoot…
I think Daniel is an outlier. I think most young people will still want to be in the city even if they can work from home (I presume he is young given that he’s moving back with his parents), and with rents rapidly declining and landlords on the ropes it’s easier now than ever to get that urban experience for those who aren’t germophobes. It would be interesting to know how many young adults live with their parents because they HAVE TO versus those who can afford to move out but voluntarily choose not to do so.
However, even if the proportion of young professionals who leave the city centre due to WFH arrangements is small, it’s still yet another factor in the rapidly shifting supply/demand picture for downtown rentals, along with Airbnb collapse, decline in international students, and purpose-built rental construction at a 50-year high (in Toronto).
Emptying downtown, dropping real estate values, and massive layoffs in our urban centres. Sounds all doom and gloom. Wow! And to think PM Trudeau did this to Calgary on purpose the last five years in order to save the world. Welcome to Trudeau’s Calgary everyone!
You will notice downtown getting more unsafe too as the meth-head to employed citizen ratio becomes equal after a few months. Watch out for the needles on the ground.
@#20 Lambchop
“Completely silent, very fast and scary low. It circled 5 or 6 times and then flew away.”
+++
They dont need to fly high to spray the jet trail chemicals….covid1984 delivered right to your doorstep…..
The thing is, no one really knows how to restart an economy.
Took humans millenia to build it up to what it is today, but there all dead now.
So, it’s left up to us to figure out how they did it, this will be good.
————————————-
Mother Nature was watching NBC Nightly News last night and she thought to herself, damn, millions of blood sacks running around on beaches, protesting all over the place, not protecting themselves, making it so much easier for my latest viral creation to promulgate itself.
A wry smile came over her face, if she has one.
Not buying the real estate bounce back thing for next year either(maybe a dead cat bounce this summer).
I mean if you lost 3-4 months income this year, or only made 4x $2000 for 4 months this year, that is likely to have an impact on how much you can borrow for a home next year. The real estate boards say the market will came back, how can it come back to historic levels, when you cannot show the income to get mortgage approval for historic amounts? Something will give, and I doubt it will be the generosity of banks giving out more money.
EVERYTHING’S TEMPORARY
….. Remember That!!!
Wasn’t me—-Garth
Well in 2008 it seemed to me you felt moving to the burbs was not exactly financially savvy:
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2008/07/04/rip/
Twelve years ago I said urban real estate would outpace suburban properties in price appreciation. It did. – Garth
#7 Faron you are kidding right ? Every small town now has an roadside sign asking for BLOOD donations.
Say how do they know we are healthy ? (In reality we all are, but that’s the big lie isn’t it. Without that – that we all “could be sick” the entire narrative of our enslavement falls apart.)
https://blood.ca/en
“To ensure we can continue to meet the needs of patients in Canada, we need everyone who is healthy to book and keep their blood donation appointment for weeks and months ahead.”
to comment # 31 F the busybodies…
Good point and justified.
And they can stop paying those taxes (which provide the operating expenses for that community) for up to 2 years before the properties can even be entered into the ‘expropriation for back taxes’ process.
I am not a Real Estate cheerleader, and tend to call em as I see em.
Straight to the point: 3000 sales in the region and 1000 of them in the city of Toronto was surprisingly good for the month of April. Yes, I know that we had 9,000 last April, but considering the situation, the residential market showed a resiliency I didn’t expect.
Will we get back to the old “euphoria” anytime soon? I doubt it. But we won’t see tumble weeds blowing down the Danforth either.
A lot of the credit goes to all three levels of Government who have provided strong leadership and financial support.
Some good news SK has calculated its R0 and is using it in all the right ways from what I read from them. Kudos to SK. MN should be out with there’s soon enough. And NB considering closing its borders, smart move if they do it with their Typhoid Mary neighbors. Same in Italia, free travel now but only within your Region.
So far, the 3.5MM that went back to work on Apr. 14th not dropping like flies yet in Italia (deaths, cases, ICU Beds, home isolation, all going down and have been for a few weeks now).
Though, it can take up to 1 month to find out so still 1.5 weeks or so to go on that Phase I opening before the jury is out.
Will let you know Canada if it is not going well so you do not repeat the same Made in Italy economy reopening errors.
#29 John on 05.05.20 at 4:04 pm
#7 Faron
Come on man, shake it off.
No one likes a quitter.
Not quitting, just need a break from the obsession. It’s getting in the way of my job and keeping me at my desk when there are better things in life (partner, basset hound, socially distanced driveway beers with friends, liberal handwringing about the virus etc.)
What a shitty world this is turning into.
#46 Ballingsford on 05.05.20 at 4:36 pm
I wonder how Daniel’s parents feel about moving back home.
Seems pretty selfish to do that to your parents and gloat about how much extra money you’ll have to invest while being a sponge.
Grow up young man!
*********************************************
Dan can take care of his parents because they probably don’t have cash in their age. His parents probs in the 60s and can’t keep a labour income for much longer.
Don’t make assumptions without knowing the details, it ends up being an informed decision, which is usually a poor decision.
#252 MF on 05.05.20 at 2:40 pm last post sez:
“Faron and Lahdeedah scoring some victories here, and racking up points.
It’s like a Batman and Robin duo.
Reminds me of when IH used to manhandle people, before he went a little off the rails that is (still a fan though!)
MF”
—————————————
Finally got Mommy and Daddy to post?
Just walked passed the closed High Park. Flowers and trees are being protected by Police with guns. Strange, in a funny way.
I’ll tell you who’s really getting hurt by this High Park closure….the High Park squirrels.
They are so skinny! I’ve never seen them so skinny. Not sure how much more of this they can take. They’ve had it easy. Premium fresh unshelled peanuts brought in daily. Even walnuts. Full garbage cans of pizza slices just in case. None of these High Park squirrels were ever saving any nuts, thinking nuts would fall from the sky endlessly. Some probably don’t even know how to live off the land.
And here we are. Chinese virus. Park Closed. Nuts not coming in. And they thought dogs were their biggest danger.
They are standing by the fences looking at people walking by, hoping someone throws them a nut. But people are stressed, no time for feeding squirrels – someone may walk by too close. Sad. For sure many squirrels will not survive this High Park closure.
Can we learn anything from the squirrels? Probably not.
Daniel’s old enough to be working in IT at a bank and thinks he’s winning at life by moving back in with his parents?
Having extra money to invest is great; the feeling of self-sufficiency and a measure of self-pride are better.
This bat-flu bullshit is a non-issue. The cough I came down with after returning from the Himalayas was far more severe than my bout with the Bat flu.
The economic damage is real however.
What’s the best way to short Canada in general?
Wonder what the CIBC’s gonna do with new towers they’ve got going up on Bay St. across from the Scotia Arena? At concept they never foresaw COVID.
#75 TalkingPie on 05.05.20 at 5:13 pm
Daniel’s old enough to be working in IT at a bank and thinks he’s winning at life by moving back in with his parents?
Having extra money to invest is great; the feeling of self-sufficiency and a measure of self-pride are better.
*********************************************
Harsh comment, there is no shame helping aging parents.
Dan’s parents should be happy, he has a full time job and paying his taxes.
Why bash personal family matters? It’s their private life. We should be happy that Dan’s live is under control. That’s one Canadian we don’t have to worry and he paying taxes to the lay off workers..
#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.05.20 at 3:10 pm
Stay away is so right!
All you GTA cottage tourists need to sit tight and stay away from our communities.
THAT’S AN ORDER!
Kawartha, Muskoka, Erie shores, Collingwood, Grey-Bruce, you name it.
Don’t put OUR safety in jeopaardy by coming for meaningless visits!
If you do not stay away, small communities have the legal emergency power to seize your property and sell it for 25% of the assessed value, then withhold the proceeds as a penalty for your EXTREME NUISANCE AND ENDANGERMENT.
=========================
Really?
Link please____________________________
Regardless….you rural folk best not arouse sleeping dragon.
Without urban taxpayers that disproportionately pay for your public services , you’d be hooped.
Even today there are two rules that still apply for real estate: location, location, location. Three rules: location, location, location and no more than 30% of gross income for payments. Four rules: location, location, location, no more than 30% of gross income and a fanatical devotion to garth Turner…
If people flock from downtown to the suburbs, should we expect to see a push upward in demand and prices in their destinations? In Surrey, Langley, Maple Ridge it already takes seven figures to acquire a basic SFH. Is anyone thinking these places won’t see declines due to migration out of the shoe boxes?
Garthgantuan the Grand Cahunna !
#77 Keyboard Smasher on 05.05.20 at 5:16 pm
What’s the best way to short Canada in general?
—-
Vote Trudeau. He’s been doing a good job shorting Canada so far. Making oil companies and raw materials cheaper for Chinese investors.
So…. how do you like eco-Socialism so far? Just imagine a lockdown that never ends, but this time no T2Toonies or Netflix.
No cottage, no parks, no whitewater canoeing, no mountain biking, no skiing, no eco-tours to Phuket or communing with the macaws in Costa Rica.
Welcome to GretaWorld. This is what she wants your life to be like. Every day. Every day.
Every stinkin’ day.
#50 Nick on 05.05.20 at 4:41 pm
Folks,
Buy homes in lower BRAINLAND BC for 7-10% appreciation every year. Don’t miss the bus. Historical data is evidence, not some BMO analysts sitting in his Toronto office.
_________________________________________
Why not buy the markets for the same returns? Liquid asset vs Illiquid asset. Not a hard choice.
#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 5:00 pm
@#20 Lambchop
“Completely silent, very fast and scary low. It circled 5 or 6 times and then flew away.”
+++
They dont need to fly high to spray the jet trail chemicals….covid1984 delivered right to your doorstep…..
___________
Haha, I thought you were going in an entirely different direction with that. Something to do with an elevator and a gaseous emission.
#76 TalkingPie on 05.05.20 at 5:13 pm
Daniel’s old enough to be working in IT at a bank and thinks he’s winning at life by moving back in with his parents?
—
Maybe he means his step-mom.
Maybe I’ve been stuck inside watching incest porn too long.
Who knows…
And now this!
https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/as-if-2020-wasn-t-bad-enough-giant-murder-hornets-awakening-in-b-c-1.4926200
2020 sucks. Can we go home now?
I’ll will tell you this Canada, you are a pampered bunch with CERB, with you name it give away, if you have a good sob story…step right up, even the WHO figured that out and got $850MM from Daddy Warbucks Justin.
Threadbare Gov Italia panhandling to the EU for money and nada so far. As far as the Italian people go, all they are getting is EI. Self-employed are getting a measly €600 per month.
And that’s it.
Pretty sure Gov Italia know Italians are thrifty with a debt to income ratio of 55% vs. Canada’s 177% and America’s at about 100%.
So no pampering in Italia, you’re on your own. Well, at least Canada can call itself the “Land of the FREE.”
I doubt there will be any Consumer led spending boom in Italia but I worry that in Canada and America with all the unemployment, people hanging by a thread financially, how long it will take for things to turn around considering their economies are Consumer led.
I think Garth might have it at about 10 years. If so, that would be sad, so very sad for so many to have lost so much because of a virus.
For once SNAFU means something in our current time.
Mtl …quebec? Kinda the same as living with M&Ds… quebec has been a black hole for money from the rest of Canada.
…not something I’d be exactly proud of.
Maybe some day quebec will pay its own way, or do something that benefits someone other than just itself.
#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.05.20 at 3:10 pm
What gives you the right to tell other people how and when they can utilize their own property? Why don’t you leave if you don’t like it? If I had a cottage, that’s where I would be right now. Much easier to isolate.
So, until the government actually imposes a travel ban, if you try and make noise when people come to occupy their cottages, you can probably expect to spend some time in jail, which is not the best strategy when trying to avoid covid.
STAY AWAY YOU IDIOT TOURISTS!
If you do not stay away, small communities have the legal emergency power to seize your property and sell it for 25% of the assessed value, then withhold the proceeds as a penalty for your EXTREME NUISANCE AND ENDANGERMENT.
And WE WILL. WE DO NOT CARE.
Go back to the cottage in 2021.
NOT A DAY BEFORE!
————
And if you don’t pay your property taxes?
Under Provincial Municipal Emergency Measures Acts we can, and WILL, seize your properties without the usual tax arrears certificate process delays and sell them. Instead of one year, you will get thirty days, and then the property belongs to us – the local, full-time residents.
Safety first.
Stupid and selfish people can lose everything.
STAY AWAY!
#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 5:00 pm
@#20 Lambchop
“Completely silent, very fast and scary low. It circled 5 or 6 times and then flew away.”
+++
They dont need to fly high to spray the jet trail chemicals….covid1984 delivered right to your doorstep…..
——————-
Oh boy….
The chemical you see in contrails is water vapor, which forms a little thread of a cloud in the -40 air found at cruising altitudes. It’s the same thing as the clouds that come out of car exhaust on really cold days.
Correct. This working at home was being planned early March for firms I deal with. This is all a plan.
Ask yourself how quickly those plexiglass shields and floor stickers were all manufactured to custom specs, distributed, and installed into supermarkets and big box within a week, in North America.
Any government IT employees here? Was CERB really concieved and rolled out within 2 weeks? Fastest – and most reliable – government I.T. project ever?
And there ya go – KABOOM – the “new normal “ is not going to be nice – you better sharpen up on your survival skills my friends. Those who were prudent and saved will survive and those whom lived beyond their means will feel the noose tighten around their neck- this will hurt for years
#28 JB on 05.05.20 at 4:02 pm
—
Not very so true ! Canadian health care system is a BIG failure, I wish I have never been in Canada, I can tell you that. Not because I’m directly hit by that , but I’m hurt very badly indirectly in several occasions.
At this moment, I’m just praying for someone to survive the Canadian Health Care as I write this.
It took them not to figure out what is going almost two and half months and the person is now placed in ICU right now fighting for her life with help of machines, after 74 days (to be exact) of un-treatment otherwise 14hrs a week gym she could do just before that.
Ah, another one, Something that will impact a new-born for his lifetime, just because a stup1d $h1t did not turn the right button of the ultraviolet light in his first 24 hours of life.
I’m also not just telling the previous ones that happened in the past, under amendment-5, right to remain silent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNEvS-1ZGgM
To the person saying stay away from the cottage.
Do I get a pass on property tax this year and the locals pick up the slack?
At my cottage I don’t interact with anyone, so why should I be denied access?
Do I need to change my primary residence for the summer?
I think we’re getting ahead of ourselves. This is a virus, it’s not Armageddon. As soon as a vaccine is created then this will pass like the Spanish Flu, Sars, chicken pox, measles and ebola and other health crises known to man. The ones who are scurrying now are the ones living on the edge. I hope this makes them more financially responsible in the future. In the meantime relax and breath in the fresh air.
#74 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.05.20 at 5:10
Lol.
I just googled “batman son” and apparently he exists. His name is Damian Wayne.
Since this is a financial blog, Damian is supposed to inherit Wayne Enterprises and become the wealthiest kid on earth at some point. Hopefully he can afford a Toronto condo:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damian_Wayne
MF
#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!
You have no right to tell people whether or not they can return to property that they own. I don’t own a cottage myself, but if I did, the first nice weekend, I’d be back. Get over it. If you’re so scared, stay home.
Well I don’t need any stats to tell you that the empty apartments visible from the window of mine in downtown Van is starting to stand out. Won’t be long until we give up the expensive rent either. CBD offices closed and everyone getting laid off…
One of the first glimpses of COVID’s real prevalence (see link below). In other words, it’s already VERY prevalent… there’s a 1/3 chance you’ve had it if you’re Iranian. Do you think Canada is special? When serology tests finally come to Canada we will find the same if not more.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079244v1
I have yet to see several units in our building actually have people show up.
Several solds several months ago.
Occupants (both tenants) moved out. Nothing incoming. So either these things are not closing or new buyers are renting out at some point?
But renting out at these buy prices is
1-guarantee underwater
2-guarantee no rent will be paid for months (given Ontario no evict situation)
…
?????
The only thing that will tank Toronto/GTA is a substantial reduction in in-migration from RoC and outside Canada. I would be surprised if the recent trends dont just hold up, but may actually increase. People will continue to come here in their tens of thousands/year and maybe even more will come here where economic activity will return faster than elsewhere in Canada.
And the idea of Leaside residents picking up en masse and heading for Keswick is, well….lol
CBC Toronto had a story of one condo building increasing condo fees due to lost revenue from parking spots, party room and guest suites. Yikes!
My Toronto Housing chart is published now with April data:
http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html
It looks apparent now that sellers have been cashing in since JAN 2018.
As Garth remarked in his JAN 2018 post: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/01/
Hello fellow blog dogs. Was cruising MLS and saw this pop up.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/21819034/34-kerr-road-toronto?utm_campaign=kijiji_vdp&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=kijiji
4 br 2 blocks from Queen E. How is this possible? Is it really armageddon.???
We are living in the ruins of a great civilization.
I used to spend a lot of time in prisons. Not actually as an inmate. On the other side of the bars. Prepping people for when they got out.
The most amazing thing I noticed was that everyone expected their lives on the outside to be the exact same as when they last had their freedom.
I had folks tell me that they would go back to their old jobs. This is people who had been in for years. They were all fully convinced that things would just start up again for them exactly as they were just before they went in. The hardest part was preparing them for the shock of their new lives on the outside.
When I talk to friends now about how things will be for them in a few months, they have that same look in their eyes. I have a commercial pilot friend who is fully convinced he will be back flying international flights by July.
A manager of a restaurant that I know is going bankrupt, fully convinced she will soon get the call from her boss to come back full time.
It seems to be psychological. We remember our most recent reality. Even if returning to that reality is laughable and totally unrealistic. Perhaps it is because there is nothing else to remember.
People are going to need a lot of psychological help in the next few months.
I know my recently released inmates certainly did.
Who would have thought bankruptcy lawyers are also down 50 or cent in filings year to date. Covid inverts everything, especially expectations. CBC today reports the great deferment. Life, loans, debts, and plans on hold for a half year in the great reset. But like jumping off a mountain it is all air until you smack into granite at the bottom. I would expect by fall that the great revealing unfolds, where everything is half off, houses, rents, furniture and even for some, a half life to what was anticipated. The collateral damage from Covid will result in a much higher number of financial and relationship victims than from just the dreaded bug itself.
By June we Canadians will be past the point of no return where there will be no back to normal to get back to. Personally I am brushing up on my antique Baden Powell scouting manuals to be prepared for a future thsat Hollywood could credibly write a script for.
The life I ordered on Amazon is no longer in stock.
Amazing story from a seniors’ residence in France…how to keep seniors in LTC safe, not one covid death due to selfless LTC staff near Lyon
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/france-vilanova-nursing-home-1.5554296
I see internal borders in Canada are being formed between cottage country and big cities. Expect to find national borders tightened up also and for quite a while.
When survival is an issue political correctness as we know it becomes a dubious luxury that one can do without. To the leftists did you enjoy the last 75 years?
#4 the Jaguar
It is weird; I work by the airport and have noticed the same thing with the same plane each year; sleek, black nose cone, with looked like a radar set up on top of it. I watched it make a few passes from North to South. I think that Felix was on board sulking!
————————————————
Regarding your blog today Garth; I just cannot see downtown office space in demand; prices are coming down but people are just scared. Is it still wise to stay in REIT’S?
Sha-Na-Na-Na
Sha-Na-Na-Na
Hey Hey Hey
Goodbye!
All together now,
Sha-…
#46 Ballingsford on 05.05.20 at 4:36 pm
I wonder how Daniel’s parents feel about moving back home.
Seems pretty selfish to do that to your parents and gloat about how much extra money you’ll have to invest while being a sponge.
Grow up young man!
———————————–
Helluva lot more bearable than listening to Boomers gloat about buying a house for $50,000 in 1977 that’s now worth $1.7 million through no effort or skill on their part.
Maybe they could learn some humility from this smart young man?
In Squamish there is sold signs everywhere?? Maybe there is some merit to what you are saying Garth? and all markets are local.
Why would you live in a 500sf box when you can live in paradise up here?
Then again, we don’t want anymore people up here.. Really, it sucks here.. don’t do it…
Wow, the blog dogs sure seem aggressive and extra rowdy this lovely evening. Why are we all so angry, wanting to jump all over each other? Life is good, live in peace and try and chill a bit. This too shall pass. Yes, change will happen, but humans are resilient. . .they too will change and adapt. Nothing is going back to “normal”. But normal wasn’t all that great. I think some of the change will be great, I think it’s has put what is important in focus. . .family, community, etc. The sky is not falling, just inhale and relax. Take a walk, turn off the news, stop feeding into the negativity. Watch your dog, he’s not worried. If you have a roof over your head and food on the table, it’s all good.
ISO – Lake Front Cottage on Lake Huron preferably North of Goderich.
We sold ours 11 years ago.
We are considering purchasing another at this time at a reasonable price.
Cash sale.
We can’t provide our personal email on the blog.
Perhaps contact Garth or one of his compatriots and we could be put in touch.
THIS IS NOT FALSE NEWS OR A JOKE!
Haven’t seen this discussed — what are the tax implications of so many people working from home?
We’ll all have the ability to claim home offices on our 2021 taxes, but for the novices, how will that work?
Not unless you have a 2200 from your employer spelling it out. – Garth
Triple posting here today. Promise to go away, but this podcast with smart finance peeps, including a personal favourite of mine ( Kevin Warsh ) is pretty interesting.
Go to 49:00 for the subject of wealth tax, and also 58:00 for recovery prospects if you don’t want to hear the whole interview……………..
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-podcast-breakingvi/breakingviews-the-exchange-corona-nomics-idUSKCN22926S
To keep cottagers away maybe the locals should play some dirty tricks on the cottagers.
#75 YouKnowWho on 05.05.20 at 5:13 pm
They are standing by the fences looking at people walking by, hoping someone throws them a nut. But people are stressed, no time for feeding squirrels – someone may walk by too close. Sad. For sure many squirrels will not survive this High Park closure.
the little blighters would eat my whole garden if I didn’t net some of it off. But they are nice to see around along with the songbirds that seem to be vastly diminished from my younger days.
#91 Nottawa Housing Bust
It’ll go for 900-ish and still need 250K to flip. 4 beds in the Beach still fetch 1.3m to 1.5m, and sell fast
I think downtown areas will do fine after the crisis.
Both commercial and residential downtown rents were getting way too high before the coronavirus crisis.
In my trendy Montreal neighborhood. Some good shops were forced to move because of high rents.
But after the crisis, I think these trendy, gentrifying/-ied areas will cool down a little bit and become more affordable.
Of course, speculators and amateur landlords will suffer. But risk was part of the deal…
Anyway, downtown area will still remain attractive with social/cultural/entertainment events and activities sought after by the young.
And I think we are overestimating the amount of people who want to work 100% from home.
I miss the office, seeing people, my outside routine, busy city activity… And I’m not even a very sociable person.
So, what does this all mean for real estate in the burbs and smaller towns and cities?
I’ve been predicting drop in GTA real estate prices for so long and I have been consistently wrong, so I wouldn’t hold my breath this time around. I sure hope condo prices in TO drop sharply, as they are at ridiculous level now compared to the value they offer – it will be good for young families and retirees.
Hey Garth,
You are saying, companies will get rid of most of their boring cubicles, and allow people work remotely. Makes total sense to me.
But in that case, commercial REITs are doomed, right? Because there gonna be huge surplus of unused office space, and dramatic reduction of the rent cash flow. And this is permanent, not temporary.
Cheers,
Stan
@#94 Conspiracy Theory
“The chemical you see in contrails is water vapor, which forms a little thread of a cloud in the -40 air found at cruising altitudes.”
+++
Shhhhhhh.
I’m fully aware of vapor trails.
I was being sarcastic.
There are a few commenters on here that believe in the “govt spray program.”
Pretend to play along………. so I can draw them out.
Oodles of fun.
#93 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.05.20 at 5:39 pm
STAY AWAY YOU IDIOT TOURISTS!
If you do not stay away, small communities have the legal emergency power to seize your property and sell it for 25% of the assessed value, then withhold the proceeds as a penalty for your EXTREME NUISANCE AND ENDANGERMENT.
And WE WILL. WE DO NOT CARE.
Go back to the cottage in 2021.
NOT A DAY BEFORE!
————
And if you don’t pay your property taxes?
Under Provincial Municipal Emergency Measures Acts we can, and WILL, seize your properties without the usual tax arrears certificate process delays and sell them. Instead of one year, you will get thirty days, and then the property belongs to us – the local, full-time residents.
Safety first.
Stupid and selfish people can lose everything.
STAY AWAY!
==============================
Sigh…
Another reason siblings shouldn’t even date…let alone marry.
@#72 A guy in cowtown
“What a shitty world this is turning into.”
++++
You must be a Millenial.
We Boomers already knew that…
Wasted years !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zovOM4hGoiM
Covid 19 mutating, more contagious.
Israeli Prime Minister last night said that kids are going to need some sort of sensor to track them.
Israeli Minister Of Transport said last night that air travel was soon going to involve more then just a Passport.
They need a diagnostic system to check for a Virus thats fast and real time.
I wonder if Microsoft’s patented chip 060606 will do that as well as commerce.
Any ideas?
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coronavirus-mutates-now-dominant-more-contagious-form-doctors-ponder-east-coast-vs-west
I for one am not going to let anything that I cannot see, hear, touch or smell tell me how to live my life! See you on Sunday!
…. and you didn’t even have to factor in the rent withholders.
@#93 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.05.20 at 5:39 pm
STAY AWAY YOU IDIOT TOURISTS!
If you do not stay away, small communities have the legal emergency power to seize your property and sell it for 25% of the assessed value, then withhold the proceeds as a penalty for your EXTREME NUISANCE AND ENDANGERMENT.
And WE WILL. WE DO NOT CARE.
Go back to the cottage in 2021.
NOT A DAY BEFORE!
————
And if you don’t pay your property taxes?
Under Provincial Municipal Emergency Measures Acts we can, and WILL, seize your properties without the usual tax arrears certificate process delays and sell them. Instead of one year, you will get thirty days, and then the property belongs to us – the local, full-time residents.
Safety first.
Stupid and selfish people can lose everything.
STAY AWAY!
__________________________
Heading up to the cottage on Friday.
Keep your distance hillbillies.
In 1957 there was a world wide influenza epidemic. It affected mainly the elderly (heart & lung diseased mainly) and some pregnant women. I do remember my mother speaking of this time. I was very young. 1.1 million deaths worldwide, 117 thousand in the USA and 7 thousand in Canada. They did not shut down schools nor the economy in any way. It was Hong Kong influenza type A.
The downtown condo market is living on borrowed time. An anachronism. Amateur landlords are in serious trouble. The Airbnb collapse just makes it worse. Rents and prices down.
—————–
A lot of business near large office buildings were small independent shops that used to be able to take the weekends off as no one used The PATH or the Subway corridors in downtown Toronto on the weekend and statutory holidays.
If people work mostly from home, those businesses will not be able to afford the high rents in prime locations. There will be a lot of empty stores when everyone returns to work in a year or two or three.
#85 OK, Doomer on 05.05.20 at 5:24 pm
No cottage, no parks, no whitewater canoeing, no mountain biking, no skiing, no eco-tours to Phuket or communing with the macaws in Costa Rica.
Welcome to GretaWorld. This is what she wants your life to be like. Every day. Every day.
—
Don’t forget the incels. It’s a losers paradise right now and they don’t want it to end:
https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/03/incels-celebrating-lockdown-casual-sex-chad-stacy-4chan-reddit
The Gretas, the Incels, the “Millennial Realists”…
#5 Piss Off !!
@#64 X on 05.05.20 at 5:01 pm
Not buying the real estate bounce back thing for next year either(maybe a dead cat bounce this summer).
I mean if you lost 3-4 months income this year, or only made 4x $2000 for 4 months this year, that is likely to have an impact on how much you can borrow for a home next year. The real estate boards say the market will came back, how can it come back to historic levels, when you cannot show the income to get mortgage approval for historic amounts? Something will give, and I doubt it will be the generosity of banks giving out more money.
__________________________________
not everyone is unemployed mate.
“…Governments that spent big to support people will have a right to take back much when the crisis ends. Taxes. – Garth ”
As a recent retiree that didn’t need help to get through this, I hope the government will factor that in when it comes to rethinking the tax tables. Would seem rather unfair to have to lend a hand to those that were fiscally irresponsible prior to the pandemic event. I’ve “paid my due to king and country” and I can fly on my own, don’t ask me to bail out the overleveraged.
Won’t all this doom and gloom of vacant buildings lost savings debt loss of jobs etc impact the markets? Or are the markets not connected to the economy? I’m confused if all of this loss of wealth and jobs and real estate equity won’t everyone be on the streets? Won’t house prices have to come down too? Will gyms close down? Will airplanes never fly again?
What Causes Ontario Real Estate Prices to Increase?
May 4th, 2020
The Canadian housing market outlook for 2020 started strong. Ontario, the country’s most highly populated province, continues to attract homebuyers. While the coronavirus pandemic may shift this expectation in the short-term, the market will rebound quickly.
For buyers who want to purchase a home in Ontario, it can be challenging to decide where to settle down. Home prices vary across the province, and external factors can affect how much these prices increase. In 2019, among cities in Ontario, Oakville was the housing market with the most expensive sale price while Cornwall was the housing market with the least expensive sale price. . . . . . . .
https://blog.remax.ca/what-causes-ontario-real-estate-prices-to-increase/
#123 Reximus
I agree will go more than 600k. But why list now? And lowball price like that.
Seems like a precursor to foreclosure. CHMC just released states. Estimates are 10% of insured mortgages have been deferred. Crown Corp readily admits that they never modelled for this situation.
No way out of it now. Major correction coming.
DM in C what you will not hear but will happen in coming months maybe years is that you work from home and now is a place of working, business not a 100% residential zoning anymore.
This will mean much higher property taxes as commercial property taxes are much higher 2 to 3 times higher so if you have a home business or work from home a portion of your house will raise your overall property taxes at least 25% to 50% or for most houses. condos etc. $1,000 to $1,500 more a year at the very least.
I would not also be surprised the CRA changes rules or restricts more deducting of expenses and then you lost that bigger tax refund there too.
Testing shows Covid-19 was present in France in December. This opens up a can of worms. This fiasco is not over yet. We are likely in the second wave. Some thing not right about this pandemic.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/who-france-covid-19-early-cases-1.5555573
New Economic Development Strategy for Nova Scotia and Alberta and many other places
This week BeeMo shocked many when the bank said it expected up to 80% of staff to stay home, post-virus. No cubicle farm…
By the way, the Bank of Montreal has 45,500 employees. Cutting thirty-six thousand of them loose – many in Toronto – seems like a big deal. What could this mean?
**************************************
Few things could be better for a place like Nova Scotia than to attract some of these stay-at-home workers away from Toronto. Such a worker brings in brand new money and displaces no local worker. It would be an export industry. Exporting the services of the home-office worker to the home office in Toronto.
Nova Scotia can offer far cheaper land on which to build.
Alberta might have a good shot at attracting some of these workers given the lower income tax rate and lack of GST (for now at least).
There are possibilities here to build up economies outside of Toronto including supporting the home building and renovation industry.
But most people will stay around Toronto. But there should be a boom in constructing proper home offices.
Is there an ETF that specializes in the bankruptcy industry?
Might be a good investment.
A little of the subject matter here… word out here in BC there are killer Asian Hornets (2″ in length). One located in White Rock, Blaine, and Nanaimo. Either the virus will get you, or the mean hornet. Anyhow, I enjoy Garth’s blog, and reading the comments, some are pretty funny. Have to laugh in these times, though life is unpredictable, look at it as a fresh start for all of us. Cheers.
#38 Devil Anse on 05.05.20 at 4:23 pm
#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!
——————————————-
First they came for the cottagers, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a cottager…
——
Perfect!
#170 Faron on 05.04.20 at 11:55 pm
#96 Flop… on 05.04.20 at 7:22 pm
And then Faron turned up.
////////////////
Glad to be the liberal sand in your conservative bearing grease. Keep on rolling…
/////////////////
Faron, I might have been a bit hard on you yesterday, lumping you in with the other guy.
Don’t keep talking about coming and going, just have a day off when needed, collect your thoughts and post them when convenient.
The blog meter only goes up to 10, and right now you are running at about a 12.
Dial it back slightly, pick a debate for the day maybe, don’t get worked up about every topic which is being discussed by Garth or the extracurricular activities that go on in the comments section.
I don’t really view myself as a true conservative.
Don’t ever recall voting Liberal in Australia or Canada, though.
I thought I was more middle of the road, but I might be slightly right of centre after watching some of the loud and proud conservatives and capitalists on this blog jump into Captain Trudeau’s arm, with only 2 foot swells and some dark clouds on the horizon.
Did I tell you about the time I voted NDP to get rid of a corrupt provincial government?
Middle aged men these days will do anything for attention…
M45BC
#77 Keyboard Smasher on 05.05.20 at 5:16 pm
What’s the best way to short Canada in general?
—-
DLR.TO and ZSP.TO
Cant short Canadas banks because most of their revenue comes out of trumpland now. Gotta go after the currency.
#2 TurnerNation on 05.05.20 at 3:00 pm
“…Amazon is ramping up its efforts to lease retail real estate for its in-the-works physical grocery store concept, which will be larger than existing Amazon Go cashierless stores and carry a wider variety of merchandise. …”
Good gawd, just what we need: another humongous-box store and all the wealth going to one guy.
Flop, you may want to take your own advice and relax. Of course, you should feel free to reinitiate if you want. Didn’t work out great for you last time, though.
#10 Moller on 05.05.20 at 3:33 pm
The “infinitesimal” deaths now is just half the story. There are long-term health impacts to the people infected with the virus. How many deaths will this lead to long term? No one knows.
—————————————————————–
How many deaths will the shutdown lead to short term? No one knows.
Let me see if I have an accurate picture of the real estate market in Canada
In the first 1/4 of 2020 there were 270,000 housing units under construction across Canada of which 233,000 were multiple housing units.
Over 60% of the demand for the additional housing units can be traced to newcomers to Canada. Without immigration the demand for additional housing units across a Canada would be less than 95,000 units per year.
A significant portion of the millions of newcomers who have arrived in Canada over the past ten years were employed in the service sectors of our economy and may remain unemployed for many months to come.
CMHC has indicated that 18% of all new mortgage applications across Canada every year are made by newcomers.
The unemployment rate in the economic sectors where a large majority of low wage earners are employed could exceed 15% for most of 2020.
Over 700,000 households have already applied for relief from having to make their mortgage payments.
The question I must ask is what Canada will have to offer
the 300,000 + potential citizens that could arrive in Canada after travel restrictions are removed?
Our housing market is totally dependent on the arrival of 300,000 new citizens each year while our economy might be unable to provide them with necessary employment.
As has become the norm our Federal government seems to be avoiding any discussion of a probable dilemma that seems obvious to me.
Without employment demand for housing will definitely decline and with an ample supply of new units under construction any reduction in demand will definitely impact housing prices over the next year to two. If the supply of new units is substantially reduced it will result in additional unemployment. What to do, what to do!!!
Hiding your beard in the sand just won’t do.
#70 Dolce Vita on 05.05.20 at 5:07 pm
Hey Dolce, you’re a data nerd; have a look at this Dr. Anderson at https://rheuminfo.com/ … Just the straight facts. No ideological spin. His presentations are all on YouTube as well.
#16 DownToFinance on 05.05.20 at 3:43 pm
Can someone explain what happens if you lose your income due to Covid-19 restrictions and eventually CERB runs out for you. Do you just get on EI then? Also how likely is it the feds just extend CERB if we haven’t squashed the curve yet?
——————————————————————
What needs to happen is that the Fed will have to end CERB if they plan to open up the economy anytime soon otherwise there will be nobody willing to accept the jobs being offered to them. Why go back to work if you can make more money on the dole? It is already happening.
#125
Anonymous on 05.05.20 at 6:58 pm
So, what does this all mean for real estate in the burbs and smaller towns and cities?
———————————————————
Lot size once again becomes gold – the way it always should have stayed as such. I have always loathed the idea of condos, crammed in new build subdivisions or small detached lots.
Good neighbourhoods. Community feel. Supported thriving local small businesses. Green space.
That’s the CDN dream.
Didn’t Trudeau promise like $25B for transit funding in Toronto and Montreal? Ford too.
Hey if we don’t need it now, there is some cash we can throw at the insane debt.
#130 fartz
LMAO it’s true so true hahahahaha
#146 IMALWAYSRIGHT on 05.05.20 at 7:44 pm
Testing shows Covid-19 was present in France in December. This opens up a can of worms. This fiasco is not over yet. We are likely in the second wave. Some thing not right about this pandemic.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/who-france-covid-19-early-cases-1.5555573
******************************
You’re burying the lead here. I actually suspect this IS the second wave. Remember the latest fear mongering was the chart of the 1918 Spanish Flu Fall second wave. I suspect we already had the initial wave and this is the second wave right now. By fall in the 1918 context it would be a minimal wave. Not as juicy a headline though.
#89 Auuuugggh! on 05.05.20 at 5:27 pm
And now this!
https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/as-if-2020-wasn-t-bad-enough-giant-murder-hornets-awakening-in-b-c-1.4926200
Sheesh…. is there no end to what destruction globalization has done and continues doing?
Or maybe all these asian pests were released here on purpose? – asian hornets that decimate our bee colonies, asian insects that decimate our native trees (in Quebec), asian fish that invade our fresh waters and colonise them thereby displacing our endemic species? And finally, a virus that wreaks havoc on the world population?
THIS HAS TO END ! LETS DEMAND **ACTION** FROM OUR POLITICIANS.
I can confirm my company is planing to keep all employees working from home…. We already had the option before Covid but about 40-50% of the people used to come to the office. No parking, no gas, no coffee downtown or lunch… the implications are more than the real estate….
#129 Lost…but not leased on 05.05.20 at 7:05 pm sez:
“Another reason siblings shouldn’t even date…let alone marry.”
————————————————————————
Reminds of the time I was up, way up in cottage country and a local gent turned to his right to introduce me to his wife and his first cousin…
And there was only one woman standing there.
Adopt a dog!
https://www.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/ge34nq/promoting_the_dogs_in_the_area_in_need_of_a_home/
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/hong-kong-airport-cleaning-robots-wellness-scn/index.html
Guess this will be the end of my flying days. My natural pheromones being doused and decontaminated so I smell like a can of stale Lysol
RE: #129 Lost…but not leased on 05.05.20 at 7:05 pm
“Sigh…
Another reason siblings shouldn’t even date…let alone marry.”
///////////////////////////
“nothing says lovin’ like marryin’ your cousin”
Wanker county motto:
https://marriedwithchildren.fandom.com/wiki/Wanker_County
Interesting
First thanks Garth
The banks sold all their towers back in 2010 and rented. Hmmmmmm
The news as I read it is not 80 percent of BMO employees are not going back to work but 80 percent will work some form of hybrid working from home and office.
However point is well taken, changes are coming and not only to the banks!
I thought we would go back to some kind of normal but now I think the cumulative effect of all these changes will be unheard of!!!
People not traveling
People working at home and so on will have major impacts on how we do business.
It’s a disaster for some that have their heads around it’s going back to being like 2019
Great opportunities for those that understand that changes are coming fast and can redeploy their liquidity.
It will be very interesting the next five years
For me I am selling some sectors and buying other sectors. Need to reposition my portfolio for we are not going back to 2019 normal.
What that means I am not sure yet
On another note
Did you read Ed’s newsletter today? He said Warren buffet looked horrible at the meeting, yes almost 100 and drinks to much coke. But banks might be in trouble and his top stocks are all in banks.
Anyway he’s a good read.
Good trading, looks like a hot market, time to sell some stuff.
#154 Sail Away on 05.05.20 at 8:13 pm
Flop, you may want to take your own advice and relax. Of course, you should feel free to reinitiate if you want. Didn’t work out great for you last time, though.
——-
I get that it’s getting a bit stale in the scraps around here, but why pick a fight with Flop? He’s relatively harmless in his comments. Seems like a good natured sort. There’s many numbskulls to call out on here rather than Flop.
How will BMO break all the office leases?
How will this impact REITs?
#109 – excellent writing, the sort of comment worth sifting for.
#110, 112 – agreed, also great comments. They help explain, inter alia, Justin’s soaring approval ratings – we are still at a point where people are under the impression that “it’s almost over, and the government got us safely through”.
Time will tell how violently that bubble gets burst, but I will say this: working in healthcare as I do, I was today forwarded a document drafted internally by a biotech or pharma company in the US, the essence of which was, that an effective vaccine is unlikely within the next several years, for a host of reasons.
I know this is a finance blog, not a virus blog, so I’ll say this too, apropos of money: I would, in real life, wager a large amount of cash that there will be no effective vaccine in 2020, nor probably in 2021. Things aren’t going back.
Scurvy #154 Sail Away
Flop, you may want to take your own advice and relax. Of course, you should feel free to reinitiate if you want. Didn’t work out great for you last time, though.
////////////////
Scurvy.
Shocker Alert.
I don’t care about anything you think.
I gave you 3 chances to explain away why you lied.
You couldn’t…
M45BC
Re #21 Jay
Apparently Nav Canada just doing test flights on approach paths.
Just kidding. It’s actually the Americas looking at the Canadian airports. Need to see how good the runways are. Justin has them up for sale. Have to sell something to pay for all this spending.
—————————————————————–
How I wish this were true. Don’t just sell the airports, Justin. Sell Alberta period. Come on…we know you want to…
#163 John in Mtl on 05.05.20 at 8:36 pm
#89 Auuuugggh! on 05.05.20 at 5:27 pm
And now this!
https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/as-if-2020-wasn-t-bad-enough-giant-murder-hornets-awakening-in-b-c-1.4926200
Sheesh…. is there no end to what destruction globalization has done and continues doing?
Or maybe all these asian pests were released here on purpose? – asian hornets that decimate our bee colonies, asian insects that decimate our native trees (in Quebec), asian fish that invade our fresh waters and colonise them thereby displacing our endemic species? And finally, a virus that wreaks havoc on the world population?
THIS HAS TO END ! LETS DEMAND **ACTION** FROM OUR
…………………………………
I have seen those giant hornets up close when i was in Asia. It was like having a hummingbird fly past my head. They are big and nasty. I hope that they don’t get established here.
STAY AWAY YOU IDIOT TOURISTS!
“Thirty-three people tested positive for COVID-19 in Simcoe Muskoka — and then left”
You GTA imperialists tie up our healthcare resources, put an extra burden on our local health system, spread your filthy germs and then leave us to clean up your selfish mess!
https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/2020/05/02/thirty-three-people-tested-positive-for-covid-19-in-simcoe-muskoka-then-left-for-a-home-elsewhere.html?li_source=LI&li_medium=star_web_ymbii
STAY THE HELL AWAY, IDIOTS!
In my area of the Muskokas residents who actually live here full time are busy right now cataloging who’s a real resident and who’s just seasonal. If you’re not on the Good List, life will get much more expensive for you up here.
Some people are really angry with idiots from the south and are taking action. Don’t be surprised if some of you southerners find police tape and interesting barriers to properties that you “own” up here, as well as cameras recording your selfish stupidity.
Go back to the cottage in 2021.
NOT A DAY BEFORE!
Talk about open and transparent data regarding virus infections and locations – from your local grocery store?:
https://corporate.sobeys.com/covid-19-cases-stores/
I only wish Health Canada and/or the provincial health agencies could provide the same level of detail.
#95 TurnerNation on 05.05.20 at 5:44 pm
Correct. This working at home was being planned early March for firms I deal with. This is all a plan.
Ask yourself how quickly those plexiglass shields and floor stickers were all manufactured to custom specs, distributed, and installed into supermarkets and big box within a week, in North America.
Any government IT employees here? Was CERB really concieved and rolled out within 2 weeks? Fastest – and most reliable – government I.T. project ever?
************
I had the same thought about the stickers, but couldn’t a local printing shop make them up? As for the CERB I had thought the CRA was distributing the money?
But I get what you are saying…
#12 johnny on 05.05.20 at 3:34 pm … So just buy a gold stock, they can always just dig up more of it.
Too funny, Ontario covidiots arguing about cottage life…and here I thought the last election was the height of their stupidity…looks like they’re just getting warmed up
#173 Flop… on 05.05.20 at 9:37 pm
Scurvy #154 Sail Away
————-
Scurvy.
Shocker Alert.
I don’t care about anything you think.
I gave you 3 chances to explain away why you lied.
You couldn’t…
M45BC
————–
????
Must not have been a lie, I guess. What was it?
To all the TO planners out there… Work from home is just as easy from India as it is from your Ontario farmhouse and “Canadian” banks and companies have demonstrated a great interest in the salary cost savings in the past. Enjoy the Clinton vision globalists :-)
Garth,
Any plan to revisit your REIT recommendation based on fact that big REITs are gathering 50-60% rents from commercial.
And that can continue for atleast 6 more months. So, is 20% down from peak is still a high?
USO up almost 10% today and up 4% after hours, going to start picking up GE on the cheap.
Would not touch real estate in Canada at all, starting to see listings worded “motivated sellers, bring offers or great investment property/air bnb”, why be motivated to sell a surefire winner?
Give this a year and when the white collar people who work from home start to be outsourced to lower cost jurisdictions, it will not be done now because of the optics but it is in the works, what are work at home people going to do? Join a union?
Not only that, all those unemployed Canadian workers will now see that programming, coding and tech is the go to field for income and will rush in to get trained up.
The cannibalizing of wages will unprecedented and they have no where to go but down, much to the delight of business.
Why pay someone 100k plus to code when a guy two cities over who needs to make the mortgage payment will do it for 60k.
I have now seen ads for an electrician for $29/hr, that is a red seal, not an apprentice.
Everybody is going to feel this, across the board. Going to be very ugly for blue and white collared people.
#151 Flop… on 05.05.20 at 7:58 pm
#170 Faron on 05.04.20 at 11:55 pm
#96 Flop… on 05.04.20 at 7:22 pm
And then Faron turned up.
////////////////
Glad to be the liberal sand in your conservative bearing grease. Keep on rolling…
/////////////////
Faron, I might have been a bit hard on you yesterday, lumping you in with the other guy.
Don’t keep talking about coming and going, just have a day off when needed, collect your thoughts and post them when convenient.
The blog meter only goes up to 10, and right now you are running at about a 12…..
****************
I agree…just take a walk and relax. But I appreciate your passion. We need to keep things in perspective, a new normal. The last normal wasn’t sustainable. The world was bubblicious. Keep on fighting the good fight.
#93 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.05.20 at 5:39 pm You should have a nice chat with ‘keepyourent’ about the merits of your causes.
@ #175 Yukon Elvis on 05.05.20 at 9:43 pm
I have seen those giant hornets up close when i was in Asia. It was like having a hummingbird fly past my head. They are big and nasty. I hope that they don’t get established here.
There is speculation (in the cited article) that they cannot survive well in our cold climate. Lets hope so!
Do you know if they are repelled by permethrin?
Time on my hands.
I walk the dog (a lot) do repairs around the homestead, cook for the family stir frys and BBQ, Made Bread.
Still working a little answering emails, quote a few projects for customers, it’s slow but work finds me, nice balance.
I dont turn on the news, really don’t want to hear the B.S. over and over.
Like the old tunes on XM, snow tires are off the cars, pools open but cold and the hot tub will keep running till it warms up. Yard looks good I have the time.
Check my investments monthly we are balanced because I have been here reading and learning for many years.
Thanks Garth, I appreciate and value your blog each day.
#38 Devil Anse on 05.05.20 at 4:23 pm
#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!
——————————————-
First they came for the cottagers, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a cottager…
===========
Actually I’d like to modify that, if I may, for the degenerate Canadian mentality as it exists today.
First, I supported the government’s denial of Canadian Cottage Owners their rights, because I was NOT a Cottage owner.
Then I supported the government’s denial of Landlord’s their property rights against, dirt bag tenants because I was NOT a Landlord.
Then I supported the government’s denial of (supposedly “non-essential”) small business owners their rights to operate, because I was NOT a small business owner.
Then I supported the government’s scheme of snitching on my neighbour having a quiet walk in the adjacent park and ravine, because I was NOT myself brave enough to take a risk of venturing outdoors, preferring to hide in my mom’s basement.
Finally, one day the government, had driven all my productive fellow citizens, away to other lands, turning my country into a fifth world shit hole and I spent the remainder of my life eating out of trash cans, as I so richly deserved, since there was no one left to support parasites like me.
>Ever been here, Flop?
Tasmania’s ruggedly beautiful quarantine site
Bruny Island’s remote location off Tasmania’s coast has made it the perfect place for quarantine throughout history
…The tiny island located off Tasmania’s south-east coast has played a significant role in Australia’s history as its isolation made it the perfect location for quarantine. The word is derived from the Italian words quaranta giorni, which means 40 days, the amount of time ships were usually required to sit at anchor before landing to prevent the spread of diseases such as typhoid. From 1884, passengers arriving in Tasmania had to be disease-free before they were allowed into the general community. Instead of being confined to a ship, they served out their isolation period and underwent health checks ashore at Bruny Island Quarantine Station, which remains on the island today…
…The land was eventually sold, and the Bruny Island Quarantine Station was built in the mid-1800s to prevent the spread of contagious diseases such as typhoid and smallpox that were prevalent at the time. The opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 saw an increase in international travel, and thousands of immigrants travelling to Australia on passenger ships to start a new life in the colonies were quarantined on Bruny Island. Some stayed in Tasmania, but many left for the Australian mainland once they were declared free of disease…
http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20200505-tasmanias-ruggedly-beautiful-quarantine-site
For years it was a common catchphrase on this blog:
“This won’t end well”
Perhaps it was fun to say, but few posters really seemed to believe it. No one expected a pandemic to be the trigger, but here were are. Tide out. Bare butts everywhere.
#131 theoryAndPractice on 05.05.20 at 7:10 pm
Wasted years !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zovOM4hGoiM
—
Ah, one of my fav’s from Maiden.
I have a 9 year old nephew who just loves guitar – and all he wants to play is Iron Maiden!
Owe Canada post #1 – read the article.
Entire workforce (2800 people) proactively tested. 13% are covid positive (374 people). All 374 people are asymptomatic. Media tell us approx 50% of people are asymptomatic. If that is true then the odds of all 374 infected people being asymptomatic is 0.5^374= an impossibility based on the official narrative.
#119 DM in C on 05.05.20 at 6:36 pm
Haven’t seen this discussed — what are the tax implications of so many people working from home?
We’ll all have the ability to claim home offices on our 2021 taxes, but for the novices, how will that work?
Not unless you have a 2200 from your employer spelling it out. – Garth
——-
I think the gov can stick it to you when you sell the house if you’ve been taking years of deductions for a home business too.
Sorry Garth I posted in yesterday’s blog in error, feel free to move it to today’s conversation
Thanks
To the stay away cottage dude. Enjoy your Cheesewhiz and kraft dinner. Wouldn’t be caught dead in the presence of your proletariateness
Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!
What’s this new insanity? We had nice weather this weekend and I drove to the nearest region for a long hike in the woods. If you scared, you stay locked in.
As if Work From Home is some new idea, or only now achievable. Wait, you mean we could save on expensive class A office space and hire staff who live in places with a lower cost of living?
It’s been done, folks. For the back office it’s called Work From India, and for call centres, Work From the Philippines — or New Brunswick.
If WFH for revenue centers actually worked, you’d be able to name many medium and large legal, accounting, finance, software, insurance, consulting, marketing, advertising, and engineering firms that do it — making bank or offering higher salaries instead of paying thousands per year per employee for space and equipment.
So name some.
Right.
Cities didn’t decline in popularity after the Spanish Flu, Hong Kong Flu, during the Cold War, or at the worst of 1970s smog. The only ting that drives people away are really high crime rates and really bad schools; sometimes not even that.
Maybe this is just Garth doin’ a bit of projecting. Moves to Bugtussle, loves it, wonders why he didn’t do it years ago, and fancies everyone would want the same thing if only they knew. Revealed preferences, folks. There’s a reason people rented WeWork space instead of working from home, There’s a reason you saw them at Starbucks or the library with a laptop.
Any changes will be minor, and temporary.
But if it were really to pan out like Garth is sketching out, I’d pity the fool owning commerical or residential REITs, banks, lifecos, consumer discretionary, energy, raw materials, health care — basically the whole index, outside of tech. Own the index OR believe in the collapse of urban civilization, which is all civilization.
All men are created equalitatively.
We all get up in the morning and put our pants on “one arm at a time”
https://youtu.be/loFdQMDE754
@ The Jaguar: those planes were probably NAV Canada taking advantage of the quiet skies to do some shakedown runs of the local Instrument Landing System.
https://blog.navcanada.ca/unusual-flight-tracks-its-probably-our-flight-inspection-aircraft/
The flights literally push the envelope to confirm that the steepest / shallowest take offs / landings allowed by the flight control system are possible.
My office used to be next to YVR and I had a great view of the North runway approach. Most of the planes that approached did so in one portion of the sky. Day after day, a dozen planes an hour, all on the exact same track.
Then one day, I saw the little white Nav Canada plane coming in what seemed to me to be ‘WAY too low and WAYYYY too fast’.
I almost had an accident, myself.
Then he came around and did it again. And again.
City of Richmond just laid off 900 staff.
I just showed a new house there go for 1.2 million, the first new construction I have seen sell in the Inner Ring of Greater Vancouver for that price in a long time.
If you held a gun to my head, I would choose Richmond over Surrey.
Actually, in Surrey, someone else would hold a gun to my head…
M45BC
https://www.richmond-news.com/news/city-of-richmond-lays-off-900-staff-redeploys-another-50-1.24129327
So my question to all the cottagers who think they are entitled to endanger the health of others by ignoring the “stay at home” requests is “How much property tax do you need to pay to be allowed to spread a virus during a pandemic?”.
BANNED
#223 Wrk.dover on 05.05.20 at 11:53 am
So your strategy is to tell a 60 year old to swap his knees with day in day out ladder work for a meal ticket!
This is after you swapped out your knees at a younger age too, correct?
///////////////////////////
Hey Workie, I have actually done Mr Rowlandson’s job and it’s not easy.
I knew he was 60, that’s why I was trying to get him one last gig before retirement, where he might be waiting for the mailman to come with the cheque.
I didn’t necessarily see him doing soffits and fascias, but he would have some transferable skills and tools.
When you are outside the construction circle it can be tough to get a break, start talking to people, tell them honestly what your capable of and what you’d like to try and a whole new world can open up.
Some companies value experience, some are roundabouts, easy come, easy go, he just needs one company, not to feel sorry for him but to let him pass on some of his transferable experience before it is gone.
I have some empathy for this man, I have 30 years in the trades and he reminds my of some of the cantankerous old-school guys that taught me during my apprenticeship.
No one should have to live in a car, he has been accused of trolling in the past, but he maintained he is a stair builder who lives in his Honda.
I have lived in a vehicle, by choice, for months on end doing camping road trips and I think even in that scenario tight spaces are not good for your overall mental health.
My knees are fine, my ankle is buggered because I had a fall and snapped a heap of stuff.
That was 20 years ago, I have managed to get this far and will try and proceed for another 15 albeit temporary full time when needed.
I do like a good knees-up though…
M45BC
BTW Ryan, how’s that REITs on Sale strategy panning out?
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/riocan-freezes-new-projects-during-virus-rents-slump-1.1431651
I’m very concerned about the next two quarters at least. Of great interest is all the dividends being cut and suspended. All in on REITs ? I prefer cash right now.
I got a gut feeling we’re going to have Trudeau running the show for quite a few more years. Canadians have sent his approval rating almost as high as Bush Jr’s was after he stood amongst the rubble of the WTC towers and proclaimed that “soon they will be hearing from all of us”. All Trudeau had to do was start sending cash to anyone who asked for it. Anyone need a calculator? Didn’t think so.
I think we can bank on plenty of left wing SJW type politicians from here on in. I don’t see a need to wet my finger and test the breeze anymore. Most Canadians who get out and vote like the stuff Trudeau does, so we are going to see more of it.
I think Trudeau has enough Women, under/unemployed, public sector, and youth at this point to overpower those who will be forced to pay the brunt of the tax increases permanently.
If you own a business, or make a great wage, and don’t work for the government, you had best start planning – you’re all Trudeau has left – so expect glowing red dots to start appearing on your chest not too long from now.
I have a great plan going forward, but unlike in the past will be unable to get too detailed with it here. Rest assured that I won’t be paying my fair share until I see someone in Ottawa that gives a damn.
This virus will likely be a society altering event like 9/11 was. Costs, restrictions, regulations, taxes and red tape will increase permanently. Better start thinking about it…
I am wondering what will happen with major multi-billion capital projects of public transit? After COVID-19 most people would prefer personal car even if it takes loner. So we will need more and better roads and parking facilities, not the subways going north to nowhere. We need better health care and hospitals, we need better emergency service for next pandemic, earthquake or flooding. It was a shame when the Algo shopping mall in Elliot Lake collapsed in year 2012, it took too long for the Toronto-based Heavy Urban Search and Rescue (HUSAR) to arrive and they waited for to long to enter the collapsed mall because they were armatures and did not know what to do. What if we have major earthquake during winter time? How many millions of Canadians will freeze and die waiting for rescue?
Fair to say that all assets’ valuations swing from being undervalued to overvalued, over various lengths of time. Why should anyone be surprised that Canadian RE is about to experience the downward part of this inevitability?
Covid1984 has only accelerated the trajectory of the path, that’s all.
If you’re a renter, sit back and wait for 3-4 years, when the collapse has run its course.
There’s no way in heck people are going to work from home forever, everyone would lose their minds sitting at home in their pyjamas, would be a big toll on mental health. When the virus is finally gone or a vaccine comes, life will surely go back to normal.
Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY
I live in Alberta. Originally from BC. Play high BC property tax!!
You think I should stay away from my summer place after what I’m paying!!!
#172 Darth Targo
working in healthcare as I do, I was today forwarded a document drafted internally by a biotech or pharma company in the US, the essence of which was, that an effective vaccine is unlikely within the next several years, for a host of reasons.
——————-
This is the same sentiment I am getting talking with my colleagues who work in epidemiology and have some more detailed information than the average citizen. Today I just transferred the second half of our RESP to a two year GIC. Am only down 3.5K from 72K in early March (it was 59K in late March!) , but I see way too much downside over the next few years to risk all the effort we made to save it for him for the past 15 years. I have much more confidence in our family being able to save over the next few years by eating out less and not buying much of anything. Cheap, Frugal, I don’t care what anyone calls it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52553229
“Prof Neil Ferguson quits government role after ‘undermining’ lockdown”
Then there’s this guy; who orchestrates the shut down with fear models of questionable assumptions, then goes and has his cheating married lover break the rules for him.
I mean, as if people didn’t have enough reason not to trust people in positions of power. They have to go flaunt the rules they help make. Makes me sick.
#5 you need some help. Don’t make up nonsense . Read the mobility clause of the charter.
#108 Will sell for 900k -realtor just creating hype, guess he got you.
Condo market has seen the most speculation and that market will suffer most .
SFH Prices may not head as far south as most here would like , if supply is not there. Big assumption that everyone heads for the exits when deferrals end. I suspect not everyone deferred because they had to, same as those who took government funds that did not need it.
Not much will change in the short term or even long term. While we were mostly equipped to work remotely, builders cant keep up with demand, hence why vacancy rates and inventory levels have been so low for years with prices constantly rising. A new stock of suburban or rural housing ain’t coming any time soon. Also, no mass defaults on home mortgage or rents; ppl need to live somewhere, unless you think 20+% homelessness can happen. Everyone is getting bailed out, so chill, walk your dog, drink a whiskey, and this will all be in the rearview mirror soon.
It is looking like Mr. Market is pricing in inflation.
The Dow will go up 1%/day until it is six digits?
Not something I want to believe in, so it must be so.
#205 Flop… on 05.05.20 at 11:56 pm
Fair explanation. I wonder if he makes the stairs, or just installs. I custom made a dozen housed stringer cases over the years of my past, and that skill set crosses over into or from any finish/cabinet grade work as you say.
#75 YouKnowWho on 05.05.20 at 5:13 pm
Just walked passed the closed High Park. Flowers and trees are being protected by Police with guns. Strange, in a funny way.
I’ll tell you who’s really getting hurt by this High Park closure….the High Park squirrels.
…
Squirrels are like goats—they’ll eat anything. They’re also smarter than your average beaver. We have goats and squirrels around here. Each critter has a sales pitch. Some are pathetically effective. Chickadees are bright too. I think I blew $400 on sunflower seeds last winter.
I applaud your ability to see consequences from outside the human box. Refreshing.
#203WW1-Newsflash-the overwhelming majority of Toronto residents are not infected and will not hurt you-your reliance on the MSM has warped your thinking. The second point is that all this nonsense such as preventing owners from visiting their cottages is totally illegal-it is no different than if those towns tried to prevent a particular ethnic group from using the cottages they own.
#1 Owe Canada on 05.05.20 at 2:53 pm sez:
“Nearly 400 employees at a Missouri pork plant tested positive for COVID-19. None of them had symptoms.
https://www.businessinsider.com/hundreds-food-plant-workers-tested-positive-for-covid-19-asymptomatic-2020-5”
—————————————————————–
Doesn’t quite fit in with the fear monger’s “we’re all gonna die” narrative does it?
When you tally up all economic activity that was closely tied to Real estate in Canada in 2019 we find that these activities represented 23% of our total GDP and were responsible for over 20% of GDP growth.
Without putting too fine of a point on it the quality of life most Canadians have come to expect has been achieved by maintaining healthy real estate markets.
A significant component of growth within all sectors of Canadian Real estate markets over the past twenty years has been the annual arrival of hundreds of thousands of new citizens through immigration.
Given the current border closures due to the Covid 19 virus one might anticipate that a reduction in the number of new citizens arriving in Canada will affect all real estate markets in 2020.
It is time for honest and unbiased assessments of the probable impact that a severe reduction in immigration in 2020 and beyond might have on Real estate markets and the Canadian economy in general.
Pretending that the world will return to a pre-2020 environment in the near future seems foolish. It is time to replace hope and crossed fingers with realistic plans to protect the quality of life of all Canadians in very difficult times.
@ #16
“soften the blow”?
Nope. It would mainly serve to drag financial ignorance, carelessness and stupidity further down the road.
@ #34
Yup. Dumb money is so painful to watch, and more painful as to its consequences on the broader economy.
It came as a revelation that, in watching the past 20 years of insane re price increases unfold as interest rates dropped, people are far more naive, gullible and unstable (bidding wars) than I had assumed.
Talk about a ton of low-hanging fruit for realtards.
Just for reference, Warren Buffett sat on a stage for nearly 5 hours taking every sort of financial question from viewers and media alike giving thoughtful detailed answers and responses. He is 89 yrs old. Just amazing.
Likewise Trump gets grilled daily for almost 2 hrs about every little detail. He stands in there and takes it.
Now go load up a fluffy press conference from Justin Trudeau or a softball media interview with presidential wannabe Joe Biden.
@#207 IHCTD9
“I got a gut feeling we’re going to have Trudeau running the show for quite a few more years. …………… All Trudeau had to do was start sending cash to anyone who asked for it….”
+++++
I wouldnt be too worried.
Its only been about 2 months.
Wait until the money is cut off Sept 1st. and if the flu comes around in the Fall for round two…… oh my my.
Then people file their tax returns next Spring…
I’d wager that most people receiving 2 k of CERB money per month , have put zero aside to pay their share of income tax.
Lets see how popular Tx2 (Times two the Debt) is this time next year.
#211 View on 05.06.20 at 2:48 am
Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY. You have a cabin, so it does not apply to you ;)
@#211 View
“I live in Alberta. Originally from BC. Play high BC property tax!!
You think I should stay away from my summer place after what I’m paying!!!”
+++
I used to have a cottage on the East Coast of Canada.
All the relatives were over for a bbq one night andone of them opined that all the “non locals” were driving prices into the stratosphere and should be banned.
I asked him what he was paying in property tax for his much larger house on a much larger piece of property.
I then informed him my property tax was double his because I wasnt a “local”….even though I was born there..,
So I said, “Next winter when your roads are being plowed, your garbage is being collected, and the school buses are running …..thank a double property tax paying non local that uses the property maybe two months out of twelve…”
Crickets….
I sold the cottage a few years later.
Got tired of being gouged by a penniless govt.
I guess we’ll all be getting used to that soon enough.
#224 not 1st on 05.06.20 at 8:19 am Now now. Justin is very good at answering questions. He jumps on the stump response without even referring to the question. It takes talent to reach into the filing cabinet of prepared responses and pull out the appropriate deflection or distraction, for all canadians. Together.
@ Toronto_CA #213
His nickname in the UK was “Professor Lockdown”. He predicted millions of deaths in the USA.
Did you know he tested positive for coronavirus and potentially exposed his married lover and her family to the virus after he self-isolated for 2 weeks? He “assumed” he was immune after that length of time.
Police are taking no further action against him because they said he claimed responsibility for his actions. Whatever that means.
Imperial College is sticking by him though.They’ll just remove him from the media feeds and probably kick him upstairs with a juicy promotion.
In China they’re looking for patient zero. In the west we should be looking for economic psychopath zero. Ferguson’s in the running but he’s got some heavy competition including Fauci, Birx and Gates.
Justin’s path is on an identical trajectory as his father. Elected under a media hysteria, fails to live up to any of it, squeak out a minority which he maneuvers into a majority. That’s the good news for him.
The bad news is he will oversee an economic collapse just like the 70s with a deflationary event this time only to probably lose in disgrace and live out his life as recluse pariah, just like PET did.
It may be a little more complex that that. – Garth
I’ve noticed traffic in the Lower Brainland is back to normal for the morning rush this week.
People tiring of the CERB money re application run around already?
Or perhaps they realize they cant live on 2k a month in “The Best Place on Erf”
Hi Garth, have to politely disagree with youe “post virus downtown work visions”.. BMO aside, the other banks have already begun their back to work plans for their employees. CIBC is taking a phased approach, in accordance with the gov. And am positive BMO wont sit on the sidelines when they do.. As for DT office space and condos going empty? Ppl and gov, so badly, want things to go back to how they were.. and when this (non) threat has dissipated, ppl will be right back at it again. Some ppl will stay away, but a whole influx of new ppl are ready to take their place. They’re waiting for prices to lower to snatch them up. You know just how short the masses’ memories are.. thats why they need stupid headlines reminding them of non dangers everyday.
I said nothing about condos and office towers being ’empty’. Don’t take things to the extreme. Condo buyers/owners can no longer count on capital gains and the towers will fill with tenants at lower rates. Life will continue. But the halcyon days are so… February. – Garth
#47 Wuhan we got y’all in check
I don’t think 80% working from home is feasible in the long term without productivity suffering.
——————————————————————–
That’s true.
I can assure you that those that “work” from home spend at least 50% of their time effing the dee.
@#180 cowtown cowboy on 05.05.20 at 9:58 pm
Too funny, Ontario covidiots arguing about cottage life…and here I thought the last election was the height of their stupidity…looks like they’re just getting warmed up
_______________________
your comment says more about your character than anyone from ontario
@ #5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!
As long as you and your municipal governments don’t also hate our money you will remain powerless.
#191 Long-Time Lurker on 05.05.20 at 10:44 pm
>Ever been here, Flop?
Tasmania’s ruggedly beautiful quarantine site.
///////////////////
Morning Lurker, yes, went there once on a school trip 30 something years ago.
The main thing I remember was the rugged terrain and the colour of the rocks…
M45BC
@#233 Dharma Bee
“I can assure you that those that “work” from home spend at least 50% of their time effing the dee.”
+++
I agree 100 % after watching my workers “eff the dee” 50% of the time texting AT work!
#65 Something’s Up
EVERYTHING’S TEMPORARY
….. Remember That!!!
——————————————————————–
Yes.
And nothing is permanent.
Everything is impermanent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jog50BgjTjE
We falsely believe that the way things are will remain that way.
Good or bad. We are trapped into thinking that what we see and what we feel is some sort of permanent reality.
We make poor decisions based on this short term outlook.
That is part of why we have “recency bias”.
Nothing stays the same. Life is not linear. To believe otherwise is folly. Regardless of how hard we try to fight it, we are all on a non linear unpredictable path that leads to nowhere and ultimately means nothing. The experiences along the way are completely uncontrollable, regardless of what your mind convinces you of.
If you visually map out human existence, it would look something like this:
https://alyjuma.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/lifepath.jpg
The virus and its effects are just another random phenomenon along the way.
Keep on truckin’ people.
I think it’s a bit premature to put a fork in the 200+ year trend of increasing urbanization due to a virus that, in all likelihood, will be eradicated by a vaccine in 12-18 months.
The Spanish Flu didn’t kill urbanism. WW2’s tens of millions of civilian deaths in urban environments didn’t stop urbanism. The Cold War’s omnipresent threat of urban-focused nuclear war didn’t stop urbanism. 9/11’s threat of urban terrorism didn’t stop urbanism. Yet COVID will?
Is Canadian real estate pooched? Surely. But this has much more to do with mass speculation, lax money laundering laws, and the financial industry’s greed than a sudden halt of a centuries-long evolution of human society.
Hard to understand why people respond with extremes. I did not suggest urbanism would be ‘killed’. Of course not. The subject was downtown intensification. And, yes, the virus is dealing it a blow. Real estate values will respond. Regarding the Spanish flu, I think they just had dial-up in 1918. right? – Garth
Hmmmmm.
Does the Military Industrial Complex have a “solution” to our latest Great Depression?
https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN22I16W
Only an invasion of Taiwan (the location of some of the largest and most sophisticated computer chip factories on the planet) will make it so?
Happy Birthday Adele!
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/06/entertainment/adele-instagram-birthday-scli-intl-gbr/index.html
A shooter arsonist with a replica cop car goes on a multiday rampage in NS and the cops are awol, but carry a toy gun around in a star wars costume and its hammer time.
https://nationalpost.com/news/stormtrooper-with-a-gun-alberta-police-take-down-restaurant-worker-in-costume
#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.05.20 at 3:10 pm
Stay away is so right!
All you GTA cottage tourists need to sit tight and stay away from our communities.
THAT’S AN ORDER!
Kawartha, Muskoka, Erie shores, Collingwood, Grey-Bruce, you name it.
Don’t put OUR safety in jeopaardy by coming for meaningless visits!
Most of the people being treated and tested for Covid in our small hospitals are already bozos from Toronto who are ‘just visiting’. We DON’T have the capacity for you all if you get sick! And you’ll steal the ability for us to treat ourselves.
If you do not stay away, small communities have the legal emergency power to seize your property and sell it for 25% of the assessed value, then withhold the proceeds as a penalty for your EXTREME NUISANCE AND ENDANGERMENT.
And WE WILL. WE DO NOT CARE.
Go back to the cottage in 2021.
NOT A DAY BEFORE!
********************************
If the Toronto bozo’s own their cottage, then it’s their legal right to come and go as they choose. How selfish you are, profiting of the TO crowd all these years only now to turn your back. Shame on you!
(And no, you do not have the legal right to confiscate someone else’s property!)
#97 theoryAndPractice on 05.05.20 at 5:45 pm
#28 JB on 05.05.20 at 4:02 pm
—
Not very so true ! Canadian health care system is a BIG failure, I wish I have never been in Canada, I can tell you that. Not because I’m directly hit by that , but I’m hurt very badly indirectly in several occasions.
At this moment, I’m just praying for someone to survive the Canadian Health Care as I write this.
It took them not to figure out what is going almost two and half months and the person is now placed in ICU right now fighting for her life with help of machines, after 74 days (to be exact) of un-treatment otherwise 14hrs a week gym she could do just before that.
Ah, another one, Something that will impact a new-born for his lifetime, just because a stup1d $h1t did not turn the right button of the ultraviolet light in his first 24 hours of life.
I’m also not just telling the previous ones that happened in the past, under amendment-5, right to remain silent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNEvS-1ZGgM
……………………………………………………………….
My sincere wishes for your loved ones return to health!
Now if you don’t like the Canadian health care system I encourage you to move back to your country of origin or somewhere else where you believe that your health care needs would be better served.
Try the United States they have excellent health care if you can afford it and that is where you may practice the fifth amendment!
@ #240 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.20 at 9:46 am
The link you supplied doesn’t work (404 error).
At any rate, I mentioned my worry a few months ago about Taiwan and Hong-Kong and how china has their eyes on those two. May well be the start of WWIII.
#232 MC on 05.06.20 at 9:08 am
Hi Garth, have to politely disagree with youe “post virus downtown work visions”.. BMO aside, the other banks have already begun their back to work plans for their employees. CIBC is taking a phased approach, in accordance with the gov. And am positive BMO wont sit on the sidelines when they do.. As for DT office space and condos going empty? Ppl and gov, so badly, want things to go back to how they were.. and when this (non) threat has dissipated, ppl will be right back at it again. Some ppl will stay away, but a whole influx of new ppl are ready to take their place. They’re waiting for prices to lower to snatch them up. You know just how short the masses’ memories are.. thats why they need stupid headlines reminding them of non dangers everyday.
I said nothing about condos and office towers being ’empty’. Don’t take things to the extreme. Condo buyers/owners can no longer count on capital gains and the towers will fill with tenants at lower rates. Life will continue. But the halcyon days are so… February. – Garth
………………………………………………………………
Hi rises of any sort are also so…..February now.
who wants a concrete cubical that encases you in someone else’s bad breath and BO not to mention the other nasties in the air. Eew
Ya sure non-dangers………..bahahaha you sound like an anti-vaxxer.
#5 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.05.20 at 3:10 pm
Stay away is so right!
All you GTA cottage tourists need to sit tight and stay away from our communities.
THAT’S AN ORDER!
Kawartha, Muskoka, Erie shores, Collingwood, Grey-Bruce, you name it.
Don’t put OUR safety in jeopaardy by coming for meaningless visits!
Most of the people being treated and tested for Covid in our small hospitals are already bozos from Toronto who are ‘just visiting’. We DON’T have the capacity for you all if you get sick! And you’ll steal the ability for us to treat ourselves.
If you do not stay away, small communities have the legal emergency power to seize your property and sell it for 25% of the assessed value, then withhold the proceeds as a penalty for your EXTREME NUISANCE AND ENDANGERMENT.
And WE WILL. WE DO NOT CARE.
Go back to the cottage in 2021.
NOT A DAY BEFORE!
………………………………………………………………..
Bahaha yes try that in court.
Confiscate your property what the hell are Fidel Castro?
I’d be willing to bet that you love the Bozos money flowing into the county coffers every year via taxation and local spending. Ask your local store, gas station, marina, and beer store how their revenues are during the HIGH SEASON?
Listen if they obey rules and don’t congregate outside of their own families, wear PPE when purchasing something in the store then go find another tree to piss on.
Productivity. How many of you are pretending to be at work right now?
#227 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.06.20 at 8:41 am
—————————————-
That has to be PEI, where there is a problem with too many come from away speccers.
My wife hoards a triple building lot on the busy end of the main drag through the Annapolis valley.
Property tax $8.00/yr total.
Wow, great news Garth. You were right all along, the economy is getting back to normal and better than ever. ADELE IS BACK and better than ever too.
I’m going out and buying a KIA to celebrate.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/06/entertainment/adele-instagram-birthday-scli-intl-gbr/index.html
SUNCOR – Dividend cut! 3.5B loss
(TWENTY!!!) MILLION Americans lost their jobs in April.
The whole system is unravelling.
TAKE COVER!!
Like I said before, climate change is a hoax and the people working on the ground have known for 5 yrs that the earth is actually in a cooling cycle known as a GSM.
And I said with the idiocy of the shutdown and those weather conditions, we will be lucky to avoid a famine.
https://twitter.com/TempGlobal/status/1257357590276853761
#248 Phylis
How many of you are pretending to be at work right now?
————————————–
I am. But I’m also retired. So I guess it’s a moot point.
I read that the Starbucks in First Canada Place (B-mo tower) has reopened.
If the downtown towers become emptied, what to do with floors of space located right on prime transit lines?
What to do…what to do…convert them into housing? But for whom.
Now here’s where you must change up your thinking. See our elite rulers play the LONG game. Whereas us plebs concern ourselves with only the next paycheque or not. Everything is planned out, nothing chanced.
Look at the people behind increasing Kanada’s population to 100 MILLION people. Many are bankers, financeers. I mean they of all people would know how to dispose of their downtown banking space. Turning it into condos:
https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/team/
#19 Gb on 05.05.20 at 3:48 pm
Garth I recall several years ago you were calling the end of suburban living. Times have certainly changed
Wasn’t me. – Garth
————————————————–
I thought the same thing as Gb, it was from, I think, Garth’s book called “2015 After the Boom: How to Prosper Through the Coming Retirement Crisis”. What I got from that book was that Boomers were all going to selling their big family homes in the suburbs at the same time and downsizing, and using their homes as retirement nest eggs; however, the kicker was that there’d be no one to buy these McMansions and large sprawling homes that required a car to even go buy a jug of milk.
F52BC
I wrote that book 26 years ago. I predicted real estate troubles, record stock values and a retirement squeeze. Here we are. – Garth
USA will need to reign in or sanction to get needed tax revenue. Once they try everything else.
Kanada to weak and stupid.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/companies-pay-zero-taxes-trump-tax-law-132512117.html
Well, our house and property has never looked so good. All niggling maintenance is done, the house is newly-painted, and the trees are trimmed.
This is a bit like sailing for months at a time. By the end, the sailboat topside is in the best shape possible since nice days and doldrums are used to clean, fix, organize, whip lines, oil gear, patch sails, sew chafe strips, etc.
Oh, and nap, of course. Same as this ‘working’ from home.
#205 Flop… on 05.05.20 at 11:56 pm
#223 Wrk.dover on 05.05.20 at 11:53 am
So your strategy is to tell a 60 year old to swap his knees with day in day out ladder work for a meal ticket!
This is after you swapped out your knees at a younger age too, correct?
///////////////////////////
Hey Workie, I have actually done Mr Rowlandson’s job and it’s not easy.
I knew he was 60, that’s why I was trying to get him one last gig before retirement, where he might be waiting for the mailman to come with the cheque.
I didn’t necessarily see him doing soffits and fascias, but he would have some transferable skills and tools.
—-
Hey Flopster, are guys still doing siding and eaves trough off of ladders? In my previous career, anytime the millwrights needed to do a lot of overhead work, I ended up renting one of these:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IJ2bOZUdVU
#229 Sky on 05.06.20 at 8:43 am
As of this morning, he resigned. There could have been people dropping dead around him but as it has been through time immemorial, the little head always trumps the big head when it comes to making logical decisions.
#248 Phylis on 05.06.20 at 10:20 am
Productivity. How many of you are pretending to be at work right now?
_____________
I’m actually here, but mostly pretending.
To JB and YVR expat:
Yes, local municipalities CAN and WILL confiscate and sell cottage properties with unpaid taxes!
It’s already the law in Ontario and most provinces.
https://www.ontario.ca/laws/regulation/030181
And under Emergency powers, this can happen in whatever accelerated timeframes the town desires.
STAY AWAY YOU URBAN TOURIST IDIOTS!
AND PAY YOUR TAXES!
OR ELSE!
#227 crowdedelevatorfartz
I also owned a summer home in PEI for 14 years. I also had someone parrot to me about how summer people should rent the cottages and not push up the price of their properties. So I calculated: that year I had spent $22,000 on their fair isle, plus taxes. Plus, I did it for 14 years.
Without cottagers there will be no Canadian Tire, Home Hardware, restaurants, pubs, construction services etc in your town. There will be no way for your fellow residents to earn a living as well drillers, septic installers, tree trimmers all go under. I saw this economy develop in PEI, and I’ve seen it go down there. Be very careful what you wish for.
@248 Phyllis
I’ve run a business from home for 4+ years now.
No change, except that others I deal with are now at home, too.
It all seems to be working just fine, thank you.
#188 John in Mtl on 05.05.20 at 10:32 pm
@ #175 Yukon Elvis on 05.05.20 at 9:43 pm
I have seen those giant hornets up close when i was in Asia. It was like having a hummingbird fly past my head. They are big and nasty. I hope that they don’t get established here.
There is speculation (in the cited article) that they cannot survive well in our cold climate. Lets hope so!
Do you know if they are repelled by permethrin?
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I don’t know what repels them. I was more worried about the giant spiders next to my face when I woke up in the mornings. I bought an air-soft pistol and pellets to deal with those. They are really quick so I had to shoot fast. They did not realize I was an IPSC master pistol shot, the body count was high.
#251 OMG
Dow’s in the green.
Don’t worry be happy.
#41 Toronto_CA on 05.05.20 at 4:30 pm
Thanks for the link. This interview is also brilliant, it really should be read:
Dymond: The restrictions in movement have also changed the relationship between the police and those whose, in name, they serve. The police are naming and shaming citizens for travelling at what they see as the wrong time or driving to the wrong place. Does that set alarm bells ringing for you, as a former senior member of the judiciary?
Sumption: Well, I have to say, it does. I mean, the tradition of policing in this country is that policemen are citizens in uniform. They are not members of a disciplined hierarchy operating just at the government’s command. Yet in some parts of the country, the police have been trying to stop people from doing things like travelling to take exercise in the open country, which are not contrary to the regulations, simply because ministers have said that they would prefer us not to. The police have no power to enforce ministers’ preferences, but only legal regulations – which don’t go anything like as far as the government’s guidance. I have to say that the behaviour of the Derbyshire police in trying to shame people into using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the Fells so that people don’t want to go there, is frankly disgraceful.
This is what a police state is like. It’s a state in which the government can issue orders or express preferences with no legal authority and the police will enforce ministers’ wishes. There is a natural tendency of course, and a strong temptation for the police to lose sight of their real functions and turn themselves from citizens in uniform into glorified school prefects.
Dymond: There will be people listening who admire your legal wisdom but will also say ‘well, he’s not an epidemiologist, he doesn’t know how disease spreads, he doesn’t understand the risks to the health service if this thing gets out of control’. What do you say to them?
Sumption” What I say to them is I am not a scientist but it is the right and duty of every citizen to look and see what the scientists have said and to analyse it for themselves and to draw common sense conclusions. We are all perfectly capable of doing that and there’s no particular reason why the scientific nature of the problem should mean we have to resign our liberty into the hands of scientists. We all have critical faculties and it’s rather important, in a moment of national panic, that we should maintain them.
From:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/former-supreme-court-justice-this-is-what-a-police-state-is-like-
Collective hysteria, people.
You have it.
#254 TurnerNation on 05.06.20 at 11:03 am
I read that the Starbucks in First Canada Place (B-mo tower) has reopened.
If the downtown towers become emptied, what to do with floors of space located right on prime transit lines?
What to do…what to do…convert them into housing? But for whom.
Now here’s where you must change up your thinking. See our elite rulers play the LONG game. Whereas us plebs concern ourselves with only the next paycheque or not. Everything is planned out, nothing chanced.
Look at the people behind increasing Kanada’s population to 100 MILLION people. Many are bankers, financeers. I mean they of all people would know how to dispose of their downtown banking space. Turning it into condos:
https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/team/
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The 100 Million thing has intrigued me from the start…but how does this lockdown benefit Canada, or the elites? I agree there is something that doesn’t add up, I don’t understand how destroying the world economy benefits anyone…but the powers that be seem to want this.
#5, #93 and all of your other cottage stay away posts..
I own a cottage and went up to do needed maintenance.. brought all my groceries, didn’t leave and did not go into town.. the only ones I saw NOT social distancing were the locals.. they stood so close together talking and even several (from different households and all locals) met at our neighbours location for beers!! Inside!! No way am I going near any of you locals lol.. seriously.
#172 Darth Tango on 05.05.20 at 9:36 pm
I know this is a finance blog, not a virus blog, so I’ll say this too, apropos of money: I would, in real life, wager a large amount of cash that there will be no effective vaccine in 2020, nor probably in 2021. Things aren’t going back.
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I don’t understand how we got from “flattening the curve” to “wait for a vaccine”.
If we get lucky great, but anyone thinking they would be able to ride this out for a vaccine is a fool.
Wouldn’t it be funny if the vaccine had a higher mortality than the virus for people under 30?
#267YVR-IMO the destruction of the economy is simply collateral damage-I think it is quite clear to all of us at this point that the global “elite” are unified in their desire to transform western societies into more of what we would consider to be a Police State. That is why the MSM is nonstop in its slavish devotion to Communist China’s Police State-which is exactly the model the “elites” would like to institute in all western countries. Right now you get an $800 ticket for being all alone in a big empty park-which is totally illegal by the way-who would have believed this would ever happen in Canada-people are going to have to wake up and realize the stupid frightened sheep are going to wreck this country for good (which is definitely not their intention).
Thank you for this post.
Fear is a constant in life. Stress is really about how much fear a person can handle mentally. I can handle a lot. Thing is the body reacts typically before emotions register. For me this typically means getting sweaty as if I am about to run somewhere or fight. This happens a lot in response to the presence of certain people.
People are dealing with a lot of real fear right now. Besides constant media bombardment, the medical community has no algorithm to understand the CCP bioweapon and each treatment is according to what the doctor decides which is also dependent on avoiding litigation should the patient die.
Major changes with manufacturing and distribution likely from all this and a PR nightmare for China.
Housing values? Right now the listings are still holding steady in Calgary. Nothing moves quick here. Problem is if things get bad in so many different variables renewing mortgages on a property less than purchase price is a problem.
It gets worse. The premier Kenney has no plan. PST? Duh. That shouldve been implemented years ago. Schools going back? Fired many teachers. Oil bitumen? In what market?
The only thing really that is constant right now is clean water, electricity, and gas heating. Apparently though in Ontario some of the rivers are now polluted with sucralose. These artificial sweeteners dont degrade. And perhaps Covid is being released into the water supply. Yay?
All this plays like a bad movie. Reminds me of the lyrics “Im trapped under ice” by Metallica. A bit like the “Ride the lightning” album.
The planes flying over Calgary? According to a coworker at the hospital who is a stewardess and laid off she says for at least a couple years, those are cargo jets, she says she cant work on those flights.
Sleeping better at night? I rely on the Book of Mormon. Call it what you will. Crazy? Not really. Works better than alcohol and without the cost. I rotate the Bible with it. In this apocalytic like world, people need to believe in something.
#257 Sail Away on 05.06.20 at 11:24 am
Well, our house and property has never looked so good. All niggling maintenance is done, the house is newly-painted, and the trees are trimmed.
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Nice. This year everyone seems to be doing tree maintenance. I toppled 3 with the crawler, and did a major trim/cut back. I’ve bucked and piled it all and am close to 2 bush cords.
Only complaint is that it’s sometimes a PITA to get the stuff you need. Like paint, solvents, degreasers – lots won’t ship this stuff, “in store pick up only”.
But yes, the IHCTD9 bunker complex is also looking very park like right now :D.
#75 YouKnowWho
LOL Don’t fear monger. And don’t act like the police are protecting trees with rifles. All they are doing is standing near the park carrying their normal guns, as they always do, whether they are responding to a shooting or directing traffic.
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Also, don’t underestimate some people’s love of Toronto. As a millennial, with many friends who live downtown, we love the city for many reasons. Most of which is the entertainment, culture, convenience and lifestyle. I have no doubt that many people will take this opportunity to move away. Many people, myself included, have been considering buying a house in the ‘burbs for many years. And it seems, for many people, they are taking this opportunity to shift their lives around. But, I have no doubt that Toronto will, one day, rebound and expand again. Young people especially, love living downtown. But I agree, things will change in the amount of people living, working, and commuting downtown. My office is working on people staying home for the foreseeable future as well. The positives to this are endless. And if prices downtown go down in the meantime, I welcome it. I’m sick of the gentrification happening down and watching Torontonians be priced out of the city if they’re not making 6 figures. If you overleveraged and bought an income property when you couldn’t afford it, too bad for you. Risk is inherent in the game you played. And you lost. Learn from this.
210 Cdn Expat on 05.06.20 at 2:18 am
There’s no way in heck people are going to work from home forever, everyone would lose their minds sitting at home in their pyjamas, would be a big toll on mental health. When the virus is finally gone or a vaccine comes, life will surely go back to normal.
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For some people it takes a while to get used to not being chained to an office and realize that they can dress up, and there is nothing to lose their mind about doing the same work at home, what they do on the tax farm.
#266 Attrition on 05.06.20 at 11:55 am
Sumption” What I say to them is I am not a scientist but it is the right and duty of every citizen to look and see what the scientists have said and to analyse it for themselves and to draw common sense conclusions. We are all perfectly capable of doing that and there’s no particular reason why the scientific nature of the problem should mean we have to resign our liberty into the hands of scientists. We all have critical faculties and it’s rather important, in a moment of national panic, that we should maintain them.
—-
That goes for Politicians too. Any authority. A good example is my disregard for bylaws. I find these to be written primarily for the benefit of the utterly stupid, or purely for revenue generation.
Get a permit for a yard sale? Nope. Get a fire permit to burn scrap wood in a barrel? Sorry. Get a permit to build a new deck (and take the old one down)? Right, not happening.
So many folks offer their compliance simply because “it’s the law” giving no more thought to it. That’s pretty sad.
First thing I consider when a new bylaw/rule lands on my back, is enforcement. Making stupid rules is easy and cheap when everyone plays along, and we subsequently have a mountain of these.
When it comes to [email protected] rules, I figure if it’s not worth enforcing them; it’s probably not worth complying with them either.
#269 “ I don’t understand how we got from “flattening the curve” to “wait for a vaccine”.”
Funny that……
I saw a Dr on the Twitterverse summerise Covid19 quite nicely recently…..
If you’re under 70, C19 is less lethal than the flu.
If you’re over 70, C19 is about 10 times as lethal.
Seems to me we need to be directing resources to protecting the over 70’s.
But hey wut do I know…
“…the lender expects that 30 per cent to 80 per cent of employees may continue to work from home at least some of the time…”
That’s very different from “80% of staff to stay home”.
The post read: “This week BeeMo shocked many when the bank said it expected up to 80% of staff to stay home, post-virus.” Accurate. – Garth
#275 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 12:57 pm
#266 Attrition on 05.06.20 at 11:55 am
RE: Bylaws
The problem with legislators is that most think their job requires them to create new laws.
I strongly believe that a ‘no net increase’ requirement should be put in place for all laws and bylaws.
Want a new one? Fine. Get rid of an existing one.
Should’ve been done long ago, but starting now would be the next best.
#276 Deplorable Dude on 05.06.20 at 1:13
Nobody is sitting and waiting for a vaccine. We are talking about slowly reopening the economy without a huge influx of new patients to put as back where we were.
Oh yeah, and the treatment talk is about anti body therapy right now, not vaccines.
Like I told you before, you need to take everything you read online with a grain of salt.
MF
@#262 Kaleycat
“that year I had spent $22,000 on their fair isle, plus taxes. Plus, I did it for 14 years.”
+++
Yeah I did it for 10 years, I averaged about $7500.00/year as I did most of my own repairs, landscaping etc.
I had a place out on Rocky Point. Was awesome. I could see my cottage as the Air Canada plane was on final approach to the Ch’Town airport.
Either way.
It was amusing shutting down a “know it all relative” that had never, ever lived any where BUT the Island in 75 years.
#275 IHCTD9 on 05.06.20 at 12
Following the law is “pretty sad”?
Laws are supposed to reflect morality. If you disagree with one you can lobby to get it changed.
Believing certain laws exist solely for “revenue generation” just sounds like cynicism.
MF
#273 A J on 05.06.20 at 12:46 pm
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The demographics and economic circumstances of Ontario bode poorly for your downtown utopia.
Ontario is rapidly aging as is Quebec and the Maritimes.
The cool downtown group you refer to will migrate to the burbs to have families and be replaced by a smaller cohort and that will continue no matter how many games the raptors win.
#276 Deplorable Dude on 05.06.20 at 1:13
Nobody is sitting and waiting for a vaccine. We are talking about slowly reopening the economy without a huge influx of new patients to put as back where we were.
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Sorry, ain’t going to happen. There will be a so-called second wave. Apparently by quarantining everyone just makes it inevitable that it will come back, perhaps stronger. No, what they should have done is let it run its course similar to Sweden.
RE: #268 crazytown on 05.06.20 at 12:09 pm:
This “stay away from your cottage” guy is not posting accurate information.
I was up at my cottage this past weekend (Muskoka), my dock guy called up and I arranged to get the dock in, the marina has my boat ready (waiting for the OK from the Province to put it in the water), my grocery service lady called up and made sure I was OK with stuff in the fridge (says she is so happy the cottagers are coming back, she has a huge credit card bill from the winter to pay off ’cause no local orders groceries, they all shop in the stores).
Every local I met was thrilled to see me, welcomed me back (from a distance, of course, social distancing still in effect).
This stay away guy is just nuts.
Time to scare Garth. Imagine JT saying this in a few short weeks:
“…which is why I’m announcing the the Canadian Housing Market Investment Plan. Under this new plan, the Government of Canada will invest in Canadian Housing to provide stability and security in this unprecedented time. No Canadian should suffer a loss on their home because of a public health issue. The government will guarantee a sale price equivalent to that which the home was originally purchased for. I hope this sends a strong message to Canadian homeowners: we’re here for you.”
#267 YVR Expat the purpose of the lock down is legion.
– Financial
– Moral (‘don’t pay rent’
– Familial: the state raising the kids (Google Education delivery, the tech companies being the new tools of our global rulers)
– Societal: bans on normal socializing.
– Cultural: destruction and bans on all cultural gatherings and practices
– Media, online and social media flooding and control over the message.
– Fostering State dependence: massive debt at all levels, UBI.
– And more. We in the fog of war, total chaos, no real information being given out. Left to guess.
Not me I know:
It’s all defined here. This is a global operation. That cannot be denied, the same script read by all leaders:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full-spectrum_dominance
#261 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 05.06.20 at 11:42 am
To JB and YVR expat:
Yes, local municipalities CAN and WILL confiscate and sell cottage properties with unpaid taxes!
It’s already the law in Ontario and most provinces.
https://www.ontario.ca/laws/regulation/030181
And under Emergency powers, this can happen in whatever accelerated timeframes the town desires.
STAY AWAY YOU URBAN TOURIST IDIOTS!
AND PAY YOUR TAXES!
OR ELSE!
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Now who in the hell would not pay their taxes?
Cottage owners pay their taxes.
Even cottage owners from the GTA.
So your argument is a non-starter.
So do we tell you to STAY THE HELL AWAY when you have to come to one of the major health care centres for a treatment that you can not get in cottage country? Think about it! Nah don’t even bother we will simply confiscate your car when you enter the GTA.
#284 ~ that’s so awesome to hear!! All of the locals and cottagers on my road have been welcoming and kind.. haven’t ventured into town and sorry to say it may be a long while before that happens but so happy to hear of your good experience.
#287 ~ yes, have already paid the owed taxes and will continue to do so of course..
#277
Are you gaslighting me? That is not the same, and you know it. I appreciate the point you’re trying to make in the post, but there’s no need to exaggerate.
https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/bmo-says-80-of-employees-may-switch-to-blended-home-office-work