The bull trap

Do you agree with the following?

  • Virus spending’s off the charts. Governments can’t just borrow the money from the Bank of Canada, which creates it out of faerie dust and unicorn flatulence (as the Mills believe). So taxes are going up. A lot.
  • Interest rates have collapsed (look at bond yields – incredible). Mortgages are dropping. This is the sign of an unhealthy economy.
  • Recovery will come. The sun will shine again. Companies will make money and hire people back. But it will take ages. Air Canada (earnings off 90%) says three years to restore its business. Ouch.
  • We’re in the process of creative destruction. Much will change. People will piddle away less money on vacations and bamboo flooring. Consumer spending will fall. Employers will get lean. More will work remotely. Many unemployed will not be employed again.
  • The fact 720,000 families couldn’t make mortgage payments and asked for six months of forbearance is significant. Borrowed time. It ends in September.
  • Cities are stressed. Condos are unappealing now. Public transit is a costly sinkhole. Vast sporting arenas and convention centres will be empty for a long time. Real estate revenues down, costs up. Property taxes and utility costs will have to rise. Defined-benefit pensions will have to be reviewed.
  • Unemployment was a bit over 5% in February, then 7.8% in March. On Friday we will hear it was 18% or more in April. About five million just lost their jobs in a month. And it will take maybe five years before all those positions are restored. Look at this:

Click to enlarge: it’s ugly.

If you think the above is realistic, you know we’re closer than ever to a real estate reset in Canada. Yes, markets will bubble higher this summer as restrictions are eased and pent-up demand unleashed. Realtors will crow and mince around cockily. But it’s impossible to have a vibrant property scene when (a) the jobless rate is in double-digits, (b) income stress is everywhere, (c) taxes are increasing, (d) mortgage deferrals are ending and (e) governments fear a second Covid wave, keep social distancing in place and continue to terrify people.

The summer housing rally will be a bull trap.

This week we’re getting the latest stats out of Canada’s two bellwether markets. We know sales of condos in Toronto just declined 81% and detached deals were off 69%, while prices crashed 12% in a single month. And in Vancouver realtors report a 56% reduction in overall deals last month while the days-on-market number explodes more than 85%.

But will prices follow the sales numbers down?

Vancouver analyst Dane Eitel is warning his clients that a drop of $100,000 in average detached prices last month is just the start. Do not buy, he warns.

Don’t try to catch this falling knife. Prices are down over $230,000 from the peak which is good. It will become even more attractive with time. As prices decline to 1.40 Million that will exemplify a discount of $430,000 to the market from the peak. There is no rush to enter this market, we suggest patience.

As social distancing is eased, inventories will rise. As mortgage deferrals end, more cash-stressed households will list. “With few options remaining, selling real estate will become an unfortunate necessity. Which will inevitably lead to foreclosures coming to the market as well. None of which puts pressure on the buyers,” he says. “If selling, take the hit early before the knockout punch is landed.”

*     *     *

Ben works in SF for one of those fancy new-age, digital, collaborative tech outfits. “For the first time, I feel compelled to write in and challenge something you wrote,” he says. And he quotes me as stating: “The jobless crisis didn’t happen because the economy choked on its own (as in 2008) but because politicians choked it off. The public health emergency has been unique in our lifetimes and deliberately gutting the GDP to stop it was an exercise never before tried in modern times, or on a global scale.”

Here is his letter. Bears passing on to you…

So, I’m here in San Francisco, the first North American municipality to go shelter-in-place. I can tell you that before government action, the area’s biggest employers had already made steps to protect their employees: letting them work from home, in many cases mandatory. My employer did the same: a week before shelter-in-place was instituted, everyone was forced home. At the time there were only like 50 confirmed cases in the region.

During this period the city was quickly becoming a ghost town. Less people on the street, less people on public transit; the city’s white collar workforce staying at home. Coffee shops, restaurants, caterers, etc. were already feeling the pinch.

Even now with governments starting to ease up, the big employers are not going to race back to the way it was. Salesforce, Facebook, Google – they’re going to keep their 100,000s of employees at home, and local business will struggle to resume. Government has nothing to do with it.

This virus was going to impact us one way or another economically. I agree that government action exacerbated the situation, but your comments read like they’re the singular cause, and it hurts the rest of your writing that I’ve really come to enjoy over the years. Hope these anecdotes have some measure of influence on what you write next.

Good points. Indeed these corporations were leaders in social distancing and remote working. But governments have been directly responsible for ordering many businesses shut. Hairdressers, retailers, landscapers, dentists, cleaners, chiropractors, chefs, pilots, waiters and fabricators don’t have the luxury of working from a keyboard at home, keeping their incomes. In large part unemployment – and the massive cost of supporting those workers – has been the direct result of political decisions. And now governments find it’s a lot harder to turn stuff back on than it was choking it off. Most tragically, it’s the low-wage earners – not the six-figure Google kids – getting whacked by this.

We all see through our own lens, Ben. Sometimes clearly. Often not.

 

262 comments ↓

#1 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 4:09 pm

Another billion blown again today Garth. We are going to need to tax strategies pretty soon here.

#2 Bod Dog on 05.04.20 at 4:13 pm

Dow and S&P is up. Explain instead of bitching.

Are you aware that the bank of Canada used to create money out of faerie dust and unicorn flatulence until the terrorists that have seized control of our government shut it down. Now we borrow from foreign bank who create money out of faerie dust and unicorn flatulence.

We get to pay 60 billion per year in interest to them.

This is one fraked up country.

#3 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 05.04.20 at 4:17 pm

It’s getting to be whenever I hear the opinion of a expert or professional or specialist I want to do completely opposite

#4 Millennial Realist on 05.04.20 at 4:18 pm

“We all see through our own lens, Ben. Sometimes clearly. Often not.”

So true. Particularly destructive will be the “lens” of the paleo-conservative boomers who are insisting on reopening everything now, in spite of common sense.

According to the New York Times disclosure today, this means that the daily death rate of 1750 in the USA will increase to 3000 by June.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html#link-7b42d0f5

So, thanks to those idiotic attitudes, sometimes expressed in the comments here, America will soon experience the equivalent of a 9-11 disaster,

Every
Single
Day

#5 Stone on 05.04.20 at 4:24 pm

In all honesty, do I actually need to care about any of this?

I don’t own a house. My assets are all liquid (7 figures). I’m employed (even if I get cut, I get nearly 2 years of severance). If it was really necessary, I can pick up and move (to a lower tax jurisdiction).

What am I missing here?

Nothing, because it’s all about you. – Garth

#6 LP on 05.04.20 at 4:25 pm

I wonder how many people now having to work from home are tired of that little corner of the counter in the kitchen where their laptop is perched precariously on a stack of cookbooks? How many spouses are equally tired of trying to keep the little kids quiet while wife or husband conducts a work related phone call? Eventually it won’t be quite so funny when 2-year old Johnny runs by the camera in a diaper or the cat jumps up on the keyboard.

At some point, home workers are going to have to present a professional appearance to clients or bosses. Pants won’t be optional and hair and maybe makeup too better be looking good.

It won’t be overnight that people adapt to steady work at home. Permanent space must be allocated somewhere in already tight square footage for some people. Home offices are a relatively new “thing” in most homes. Maybe a man cave will disappear or a dedicated sewing room or home library. It won’t be all roses for some families and the constant togetherness will get on some couples’ nerves.

#7 G on 05.04.20 at 4:25 pm

Dr Paul Cottrell, Mike Adams warn of exploding medical tyranny and censorship in America Ep#5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZawr875JSQ

Just a guess,
Why has PM T. just signed off on taking the guns from law abiding legal gun owners, so you can’t defend your family from … the criminals with guns that want to harm you is my guess.
History has show that governments can do bad things after guns are taken from the people.

I guess we will soon find out if we Canadians still have any freedoms left to chose what is put into ours and our kids bodies, via food or injection. We will see. I hope there is still some smart wise humans left in our government? I can still see there might be bit left but it is getting hard to see as time passes.

#8 Fairmont WFC on 05.04.20 at 4:25 pm

so true. Its amazing how people who are still employed can’t understand that others are unemployed right now

#9 Leftover on 05.04.20 at 4:27 pm

Eitel also mentioned Vancouver listings in his latest post, down overall but up relative to sales.

I’ll say. March YVR detached sales to listings ratio was 20%, April’s is 10%, a 50% drop. It’s not a falling knife it’s a guillotine.

I’m also not convinced that interest rates will stay low for long. Supply and demand – there are a lot of bonds out there. Eventually (like once governments have to sell bonds rather than pawn them off on central banks) markets will drive the price down due to the glut, exactly like what’s happened to oil.

A year from now? Six months? I don’t know but remember how Gretzky played hockey – go where the puck is going to be, not where it is now.

#10 FreeBird on 05.04.20 at 4:30 pm

Lawsuits starting (class action may come when more see past fear and distractions). Good future blog post idea. I’ve posted elsewhere bc much of corp media isn’t covering and link this blog to show not all media is following party line…

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/lawsuits-pile-up-against-coronavirus-lockdown-measures-11587807000

https://amp.theguardian.com/law/2020/may/01/uk-government-faces-legal-challenge-coronavirus-lockdown-businessman-simon-Dolan

#11 SOMETHINGS UP on 05.04.20 at 4:31 pm

SO WHAT WERE GOVERNMENTS SUPPOSE TO DO??

Let the planes keep dumping in the virus from where it started.

Let the transmission of COVID multiply over and over by allowing millions to come into close contact with each other.

Overwhelm our hospitals and medical system to the brink of collapse.

Let Toronto end up like New York City?? 25000 DEAD in 2 months!!

Governments did what they were suppose to do – Their #1 priority.

PROTECT THE WELL-BEING OF IT’S CITIZENS FROM IMMINENT DANGER

The next time xyz country decides to drop bombs on our heads don’t take the governments advice. We’ll just put your name on a plaque (somewhere in these ashes lies a brave fool)

#12 Econ 101 on 05.04.20 at 4:34 pm

Hi Ben, please say hello to the bubble your living in for me…

I’ve seen this before. He’s probably one of those mills that discredit Ayn Rand while at the same time shrugging back at Atlas.

Sad and hypocritical.

What they did to my generation astounds me…like an early 90’s baseball player…”I got everything in the world: the ladies, the cars, the money! Now how do I screw this up?”

#13 Lilly Westholme on 05.04.20 at 4:37 pm

Garth, you say Defined benefit pensions will be reviewed. My plan allows for CV withdraws at current bond pricing rates for the next few months until it changes to the going concern amounts. This will significantly decrease the cv value. If I felt like changing careers, have ample savings to keep me going for a while, would this be a good time to act before it’s too late?

Once in a lifetime. – Garth

#14 Ed McNeil on 05.04.20 at 4:38 pm

A good point made about the lower end wage earners getting hit very hard by all this. What my biggest fear is what happens when the freebies are finished, and finished they will be before too long. I certainly hope the government is planning for this.

#15 Howard on 05.04.20 at 4:40 pm

Won’t there also be pent-up supply this summer?

#16 Toronto_CA on 05.04.20 at 4:41 pm

#4 Millennial Realist on 05.04.20 at 4:18 pm
So true. Particularly destructive will be the “lens” of the paleo-conservative boomers who are insisting on reopening everything now, in spite of common sense.

_____________

Hey Millenial Realist – you realise that a retired boomer is probably much more for a lockdown than a millenial should be right? The retired boomer has his wealth built, and doesn’t need to go to work. All he needs is his health.

You should want the lockdowns to end ASAP because it’s your future that is being used to pay for this thing. Which is protecting boomers and their parents from an early grave. Much more than the GenX/Mills/etc.

As for your death counter, yes, and do you know how many people will die from the stress of losing their job, livelihood, ability to feed their family, purpose for getting out of bed in the morning, etc?

It’s called “deaths of despair” and it’s real and measurable that deaths increase massively when unemployment spikes. Suicides, substance abuse, strokes, heart attacks, domestic violence etc all lead to deaths much earlier in otherwise healthy people because of economic shutdowns. As real and damaging as covid-19, just maybe not as instantly dramatic in some cases.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-true-costs-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/

#17 Taylor on 05.04.20 at 4:44 pm

#9 Leftover
“… A year from now? Six months? I don’t know but remember how Gretzky played hockey – go where the puck is going to be, not where it is now.“

He played on a surface that was 75×200. Anticipating the play wasn’t difficult. Regardless, there is nowhere to go. All area’s have real estate value’s that are ridiculously overpriced.

#18 Reximus on 05.04.20 at 4:44 pm

Im actually surprised there’s been as many transactions in real estate as there have been in the last 2 months…the RE marketplace is basically in the same boat as the restaurant business: essentially, closed by government decree

#19 JBush on 05.04.20 at 4:45 pm

As long as commodity prices stay low and inflation stays below target the bank of Canada can just print money. The Economist news magazine calls this People’s QE or helicopter money. Canada should print until inflation = 2%.

#20 Jake on 05.04.20 at 4:45 pm

“Defined-benefit pensions will have to be reviewed.”

Aren’t these pension agreements iron-clad and untouchable?

#21 JSS on 05.04.20 at 4:46 pm

So if house prices fall, will the HELOC’s registered against them also fall in proportion?

Of course not. Debt is debt. It only disappears when you pay it off. – Garth

#22 Felix on 05.04.20 at 4:48 pm

Welcome to……

Felix’s Feline Filosophy – Episode 2
****************************

Today’s deep thought topic for you to mull over in these hours of quarantine:

“Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by dogs,
And that has made all the difference.”

by Robert Frost

In how many dozens of ways would your life be better, without dogs?

*****************************

Feel free to develop your treatise in response and email me here, while maintaining social distance.

Enjoy your inner dialectic, and stay safe in your basement.

#23 wallflower on 05.04.20 at 4:49 pm

Not buying his argument because
1-Salesforce, Facebook, Google are not the whole world
(but will be facing the next step down in shocking down revenues; so many subscription non renewals; so many fewer advertisers)
2-the realization that economic growth and earth sustainability are not on compatibility pathways is eking its way into all core thought works; the consequences of which will be and are becoming the platform for the great reset
So, Ben, the big choke DID happen because the taps were turned suddenly.
But, there is always context. Practice run for when we do hit the Big Wall.

#24 Stone on 05.04.20 at 4:52 pm

#5 Stone on 05.04.20 at 4:24 pm
In all honesty, do I actually need to care about any of this?

I don’t own a house. My assets are all liquid (7 figures). I’m employed (even if I get cut, I get nearly 2 years of severance). If it was really necessary, I can pick up and move (to a lower tax jurisdiction).

What am I missing here?

Nothing, because it’s all about you. – Garth

———

Excellent! My supposed selfish, narcissistic self is thankful for that.

On the other hand, even those at the bottom of the food chain have the same opportunities I had. After all, That’s from where I came from. I shared with those around me what I was doing every step of the way, in detail. Their response was “pfffttt, that’s too hard.”

So no, can’t say I’m enthusiastic about comforting those same losers now. They chose to be grasshoppers. I chose to be an ant. They can still choose another path but we all know they won’t.

If a winner needs help and is willing to do the work, by all means I’m happy to give guidance but not for losers who want it all handed to them on a silver platter.

#25 FreeBird on 05.04.20 at 4:56 pm

#8 Fairmont WFC on 05.04.20 at 4:25 pm
so true. Its amazing how people who are still employed can’t understand that others are unemployed right now
—————-
A few don’t represent the majority. My spouse is lucky to still be consulting (w/quick thinking and changes to adapt client’s needs and taking on new work out of usual scope for income). We also made sure sub contractors could be paid when/if work was avail. A few friends can work but many can’t. This blog tried to inform and wake readers up for years to be better financially prepared for the future incl a possible recession or slowdown some chose to ignore it. This will be tough on many no doubt.

#26 Deplorable Dude on 05.04.20 at 4:59 pm

#11 Somethings up…” SO WHAT WERE GOVERNMENTS SUPPOSE TO DO??”

This…..apply a balanced solution, instead of a boot on neck of the 99.8%.

Sweden’s approach is working..

https://t.co/9bpNWWu1Ii

#27 Capt. Serious on 05.04.20 at 5:02 pm

I can echo Ben. I work for one of the less popular tech companies, but we started people working from home about a week before the government closed everything. I imagine those of us who don’t need to be on site will be among the last people coming back to the office. Prior to pandemic days I already worked 1 or 2 days a week at home (tending towards 2 when the winter road conditions hit), and I’d probably go back to that schedule ultimately.
I think crawling out of this mess is going to take a few years.

#28 Lost...but not leased on 05.04.20 at 5:05 pm

IMHO….as I stated earlier….NEW strata units will get slaughtered.

Still lots of multi- family strata construction in BC Lower Mainland, but these will have lost value , higher insurance( if any at all), as well as will existing financing remain in place.

Older stratas will take a hit….but overall they will be more attractive for a number of obvious reasons.

#29 G on 05.04.20 at 5:06 pm

COVID-1984
(Canadian health women at the 12min mark from old…)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCc2JsAUkwU&feature=emb_logo

#30 May the 4th Be With You on 05.04.20 at 5:07 pm

There will be an uprising and revolution against all of this, starting on Monday, May 4th.

Be there.

Do. Or do not. There is no try.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQ4yd2W50No

#31 Anthony on 05.04.20 at 5:07 pm

How do you know that mortgage deferrals will not be offered after September?

Considering the fact that the banks are making money off deferrals…

If a homeowner has enough equity in the home, why wouldn’t banks let the interest accumulate on the principal up to a certain ratio?

Because they are vital assets with cash flow attached to them. They will defer only if told to do so. – Garth

#32 yorkville renter on 05.04.20 at 5:09 pm

Grateful that my business continues as does my wife’s work… When the economy crashed in the early 90s my dad wasn’t so lucky and a lifetime of work was flushed down the toilet.

It sucked BIGLY. Especially seeing how it impacted my Dad who was in his 50s at the time.

I feel for everyone who lost their employment through no fault of their own.
———

specific to #21, Garth, I think the poster meant the amount that can be borrowed from the LOC…

Almost all LOCs are demand loans and can be altered by the lender in any way at any time, including the face amount offered. – Garth

#33 TurnerNation on 05.04.20 at 5:14 pm

Really simple . Globalist’s goal is equality – turning First World into 2nd world. Which is why T2 gave 850m to the WHO just now.
Which is why small businesses with their very high multiplier for productivity were trashed.
Airlines and meat too.
Climate change reparations/carbon tax were to accomplish this, they sped things up fast huh.

The best explanation is one I posted, this is not mine I saw it elsewhere:

“”We’re in an experiment. We’re now getting a glimpse of what a high tech, low carbon, limited mobility civilization looks like. The technocrats must be loving this – they’re going to have so much data to analyze after the experiment is over. Other major interest groups will use this experiment to further their agendas (fascists, Bill Gates and Big Pharma, Wall Street, climate change alarmists, etc.)””

#34 Do we have all the facts on 05.04.20 at 5:15 pm

In previous posts I asked a very basic question!

What is the Government of Canada doing to protect or expand our GDP?

The world market place is changing every day and our major trading partner has hinted at a more protectionist stance in the future. We need more than updates on the Covid 19 virus from our PM.

There is more than $1.5 trillion invested in various pension funds in Canada.

Maybe it is time for our government to consider guarantees for investments dedicated to expanding Canada’s role in the global economy.

#35 A J on 05.04.20 at 5:16 pm

I think a lot of people started off this quarantine optimistic, but are starting to waver. I know it was and is necessary to do this. Letting the virus run rampant and collapse our healthcare system just wasn’t an option. But the hurt just grows deeper. I hope they don’t wait too long to reopen. I see the stress every day when I drive down Bloor street. The line ups outside the banks are biblical. Everyone was borrowing too much. The cracks in the foundation of our society continue to widen and crumble. I have no doubt that everything will eventually come around, but the damage for many people will be life altering. I hope everyone learns for this and stops their incessant borrowing and debt accumulation. Our society was already wobbly to begin with. Most people looking solid from the outside, but inside were two weeks away from financial disaster. This is a reset. And I hope most people learn from this and self-correct. Life will eventually go back to normal, but lets hope people’s spending habits do not.

#36 Jeff on 05.04.20 at 5:17 pm

I agree with all those points, except with the rise of tax by a lot.

There is many way to pay a debt. Government can increase tax, but this mesure is not popular and tend to make people less productive.

Another more subtle way is to make inflation high, but have interrest rates stay low by hiding real inflation numbers. Purshasing power erode year by year and people point out compagnies as the evil one instead of government. I think this scenario have more chance to happen.

Beside, high inflation will solve the retreat fund problem. Most of them are indexed by a mere 2%, just imagine if real inflation is 10% and your retreat fund just increase by 2%… You lose 8% of purshasing power per year !

#37 FreeBird on 05.04.20 at 5:18 pm

Real truth behind extended lockdowns has little to do with generations and far more to do with the last two points on Garth’s list in this post. There’s a lot of distraction and drawn out fear campaigns going on. I’m sure it’s not laying groundwork for future plans that will effect younger people going forward in more then monetary ways. FYI not all boomers have pensions outside of CPP/OAS. Time to watch something non Covid related by chromecast.

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/04/29/now-what-7/

#38 Xpat on 05.04.20 at 5:19 pm

#5 Stone on 05.04.20 at 4:24 pm
In all honesty, do I actually need to care about any of this?

I don’t own a house. My assets are all liquid (7 figures). I’m employed (even if I get cut, I get nearly 2 years of severance). If it was really necessary, I can pick up and move (to a lower tax jurisdiction).

What am I missing here?

———–
Jesus, obtuse much?

Crime. Liberties. Inflation. People you care about…

#39 Handsome Ned on 05.04.20 at 5:20 pm

That picture looked like handsome Ned back in the day!

#40 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 5:21 pm

I find it irksome when people use ‘less’ instead of ‘fewer’.

The dumbing down continues. Like using ‘literally’ in place of metaphorically, figuratively or analogous to.

Now these words have become re-defined to mean either.

Running headlong toward 1984’s ‘Newspeak’.

I thought you focused on grenades. – Garth

#41 Andrei on 05.04.20 at 5:23 pm

Garth, downtown will not die – I have 3 kids at home, and while we became closer as a family during the lockdown, nothing can replace a proper office.

Nobody said it would die. But it’s not going back to February. – Garth

#42 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 5:23 pm

#39 Handsome Ned on 05.04.20 at 5:20 pm

That picture looked like handsome Ned back in the day!

—————–

Which one of the women were you?

#43 Faron on 05.04.20 at 5:24 pm

#4 Millennial Realist on 05.04.20 at 4:18 pm

So, thanks to those idiotic attitudes, sometimes expressed in the comments here, America will soon experience the equivalent of a 9-11 disaster,

Every
Single
Day

————————————————-

+1

Quoth the boomer: “Who cares?”

or

“As long as it isn’t terrorists doin’ the killing, fine by me. Granny was gettin’ on my nerves anyhow.”

#44 Oakville Sucks on 05.04.20 at 5:25 pm

In all honesty, do I actually need to care about any of this?
I don’t own a house. My assets are all liquid (7 figures). I’m employed (even if I get cut, I get nearly 2 years of severance). If it was really necessary, I can pick up and move (to a lower tax jurisdiction).
What am I missing here?
************************

What i’m seeing more and more of (especially in Oakville) is that rich people are such idiots!

#45 TurnerNation on 05.04.20 at 5:26 pm

Hertz rental car- hit the wire now – they are preparing for Bankruptcy. Avis Hertz

#46 bob on 05.04.20 at 5:26 pm

Hi Garth,
I agree with you… but I don’t know about the conclusion.

Low-income jobs are the ones mostly affected (other than specific industries hotel and hospitality). And new jobs have/will be created. Think, Zoom’s market cap. Research, perhaps renewed focus on healthcare, pharmaceuticls, research, technology professionals, etc.

Therefore, the people who are likely to be able to afford to buy a house, are still the same people 6 months out.

#47 the Jaguar on 05.04.20 at 5:26 pm

There it is on full display. That singular trait of the millennials. He writes ” and it hurts the rest of your writing that I’ve really come to enjoy over the years”.
This is why Dorothy said “Why do you put up with it?”

He couldn’t just present his argument respectfully offering his own insight or opposing view. He couldn’t leave it there. He had to engage in a mean little parting shot. Of course it demeans him and shows a lack of honourable behaviour. Shame on him.

If companies allowed or ordered their employees to work from home those same employees still have jobs and income. Hell of a lot different than being told your company is shuttered with no income or assurance your job is coming back. It shows a lack of compassion.

#48 Hans on 05.04.20 at 5:29 pm

Curious on your perspective on the potential for lawsuits, class action and otherwise against various levels of government for the decisions they’ve made during the pandemic. The expected defence would be that there were potential health consequences if we didn’t shut everything down, but those consequences didn’t come to pass. It’s the “what-if” that didn’t happen and now the economy is hobbled and many people are suffering as a result. I struggle with how gov’t can force bankruptcy on such a large scale for whatever reason, and the sheeple simply roll over and take their $2K/month, plus whatever pandemic tax advances that are available. I look forward to hearing your take if you’re willing to share. Thanks for all that you do Garth!

#49 Habitt on 05.04.20 at 5:31 pm

Hi Garth. Not many DBPs left. Do you think the feds will perhaps move to DCPs? Do you think it could involve workers already retired? It should be scrutinized. Why should government workers get what most do not. Thanks

#50 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 5:33 pm

#17 Taylor on 05.04.20 at 4:44 pm

…there is nowhere to go. All area’s have real estate value’s that are ridiculously overpriced.

————

Really? All areas?

$89k doesn’t seem too bad:

https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Home-For-Sale/SK/Neudorf/211-May-STREET/87304890.html

#51 Kevin on 05.04.20 at 5:33 pm

Premier Kenney is now publicly talking about a PST. The world is going to hell!

#52 Ejy on 05.04.20 at 5:33 pm

Very good prediction, I agree that buying RE this summer is a bull trap. I think it is possible in some markets for prices to decrease 30 to 40 %. On Vancouver Island lots of non resident owners, (China, Europe) are a
selling now at a discount, seems they know what is coming in the fall.

#53 Piano_Man87 on 05.04.20 at 5:34 pm

If there’s anything that can be gained from this it is that I hope Canadians look out for one another, and learn to be more self sufficient. If you can, please donate to your local foodbank. Families are going to be struggling more than ever right now.

#54 JonBoy on 05.04.20 at 5:35 pm

#4 Millennial Realist on 05.04.20 at 4:18 pm

So, thanks to those idiotic attitudes, sometimes expressed in the comments here, America will soon experience the equivalent of a 9-11 disaster,

Every
Single
Day

—-

Just so you know, right now, they experience TWO 9/11s every day, as a course of regular life, and nearly THREE 9/11s every day in January, February and March of most years.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm

If you look at the COVID-19 death stats and regulations, they’re allowed to PRESUME that someone died of COVID-19, as one of two options attributing death to COVID-19. Given the money they receive for treating COVID-19 patients, it’s a no-brainer that they’re overstating deaths to COVID-19.

Look at the trailing stats (ie, for previous months, once they’ve collated the data) for deaths other than COVID-19 in the coming months and you’ll see a drop in other “reasons” for dying. Why? They’re attributing deaths to COVID-19 for any reason they want, including presuming (without any objective proof or test) that the person had it. Statistically, it doesn’t hold a drop of water but people want to believe that everyone is dying of COVID-19.

Don’t believe everything you’re reading. Oh, and pass me the prophecy stone you’re holding. It’s broken.

#55 ovidet on 05.04.20 at 5:38 pm

Do governments need to raise taxes if debt servicing costs are really low? historically high deficits but historically low rates.

#56 Earth to Justin the Tone Deaf on 05.04.20 at 5:43 pm

Personally, I could care less about “assault rifles”. They mean nothing to me as the term “assault rifle” is meaningless. Any rifle can be used as an “assault rifle”, even a BB gun.

The larger issue is that T2 is massively over-stepping the line of his mandate. He was elected (barely), in a minority or provinces, and lost the popular vote. He cannot credibly claim to be “representing” the entire country, especially in that he failed to elect a single MP in much of it. His is a naked power grab, pure and simple.

Having said that, if T2 wants to outlaw all guns of any type as a test in a small area of the country and see how it works I’m all for it. I see no problem with outlawing all guns in 416. They seem to be most concerned about it. Then have at it. Make every gun illegal, and then see how it works out.

If there are no shootings or gun deaths in the 416 for five years, that would prove that his idea is sound.

Have at it. I’m 100% behind taking away guns from people where I don’t live. That’s kind of the point of T2’s idea isn’t it?

#57 ImGonnaBeSick on 05.04.20 at 5:43 pm

#4 Millennial Realist on 05.04.20 at 4:18 pm
“We all see through our own lens, Ben. Sometimes clearly. Often not.”

So true. Particularly destructive will be the “lens” of the paleo-conservative boomers who are insisting on reopening everything now, in spite of common sense.

According to the New York Times disclosure today, this means that the daily death rate of 1750 in the USA will increase to 3000 by June.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html#link-7b42d0f5

So, thanks to those idiotic attitudes, sometimes expressed in the comments here, America will soon experience the equivalent of a 9-11 disaster,

Every
Single
Day

——–

Yeah, it’s easy just to hide… In war it’s probably easier to surrender than to fight too. You’re life might be better off, or it may very well not be… But at least you’d still have some semblance of life. Rotting away in a cell.

War takes bravery. War takes fighting. Eventually you have to say my fear is not greater than my freedom. And then you put away your fear, and you get to work.

So you can stay hidden in your fear. No one’s stopping you, but you better stay there forever, because now your once healthy immune system will now be susceptible. But to the ones willing to take the risk, you’re the drowning man trying to pull us down with you. Dangerous. Anyone with a healthy immune system should be getting out into the streets. Get this economy turned back on, remind these brutes that we are adults, and we will judge our own risk now that we have the information that we can look up.

It’s time to protect the susceptible, now that we know who they are, and everyone healthy person to do their part and that is to build the herd immunity and send this virus back to hell.

Our ICUs are not overrun. We have capacity to slowly open, judge the results, and react accordingly.

You are a scared child. That’s fine. Get out of the way and go watch your Netflix.

#58 LP on 05.04.20 at 5:43 pm

#40 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 5:21 pm
***************************

Then you must really love injured for wounded and
bringing for taking.

F72ON

#59 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 5:44 pm

And to think, the whacko leftists on Twitter wanted to give Trudeau emergency powers for 2 yrs. Wont even take that long. Trudeau will have destroyed Canada in 6 months. Thanks Toronto.

#60 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 5:46 pm

#24 Stone on 05.04.20 at 4:52 pm
#5 Stone on 05.04.20 at 4:24 pm

In all honesty, do I actually need to care about any of this?

I don’t own a house. My assets are all liquid (7 figures). I’m employed (even if I get cut, I get nearly 2 years of severance)…

———-

…said the turkey on Christmas Eve.

Or the Venezuelans.

In 2013, your CAD would buy $1 of US goods. Now it will buy $0.71 of the same.

A little hubris for having planned well is fine, but suggest you look at the writing on the wall and pre- prepare for the relocation you mention. When things go sideways, they go in a hurry and the opportunity to prepare will be gone.

#61 Leo on 05.04.20 at 5:48 pm

#20 Jake

DB pensions are protected… So Kenny just passed bill 22 to change the law so it wasn’t so protected. What stops any other government from doing the same.

#62 Reality is stark on 05.04.20 at 5:49 pm

Why can’t we focus on bankruptcies and how much they will add to the debt burden?
I assume 10 billion declaring bankruptcy to absolve themselves from student loan debt and credit card debt. I assume 90 billion from speculative property purchases. With people not paying rent amateur landlords can’t hold on for long especially with their outrageous debts.
We need a legitimate discussion about this subject instead of the constant lunacy in irrelevant trivial garbage that goes on here.
I assume the bankruptcies will ensue en masses once CERB ends.
Anyone have any expertise in this pertinent subject?

#63 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 5:53 pm

#40 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 5:21 pm

“I thought you focused on grenades. – Garth”

—————-

Oh, believe me:

When there’s a grenade in the room, EVERYBODY focuses on it.

#64 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 5:56 pm

Garth, do you have any contacts in Calgary? Might want to rethink that oil play through the TSX. I have it on good authority there will be swack of juniors filing for bankruptcy and another group of majors who toughed it out since Justin got in, pulling the pin now and bailing on Canada for good.

Our once mighty oil export business reduced to rubble by a Trudeau again. We are all poorer without that industry. So sad.

#65 The TRUMP Pandemic/Depression on 05.04.20 at 5:59 pm

Re-starting the economy will be quite difficult and quite slow but governments are and will continue to do what-ever-it-takes to keep things moving so negative interest rates are coming and in a big way… helicopter monies too all for the elusive inflation figures that are required to dilute debt… It will take years but this seems the way out for those willing to keeping treading… Dont stop what ever you do,,, don’t stop…

#66 Asterix1 on 05.04.20 at 5:59 pm

Any tips? What’s a good service/site to use in Toronto if you do not want to sell a property using a RE agent?

Paying that much in commission makes no sense!

#67 Ronaldo on 05.04.20 at 6:06 pm

We all see through our own lens, Ben. Sometimes clearly. Often not.
——————————————————————
So true. We tend to forget about those dang deplorables don’t we? You know, the ones that make up 70% of the workforce who are mostly out of work right now and not able to serve you your coffee from home. I sure miss them.

#68 Stone on 05.04.20 at 6:09 pm

#38 Xpat on 05.04.20 at 5:19 pm
#5 Stone on 05.04.20 at 4:24 pm
In all honesty, do I actually need to care about any of this?

I don’t own a house. My assets are all liquid (7 figures). I’m employed (even if I get cut, I get nearly 2 years of severance). If it was really necessary, I can pick up and move (to a lower tax jurisdiction).

What am I missing here?

———–
Jesus, obtuse much?

Crime. Liberties. Inflation. People you care about…

———

Aren’t you aware? The wealthy are building glittering walled cities where your every want and desire is fulfilled so long as you have the wealth to pay for it. Didn’t you get the notice?

Oh…you didn’t? Oh…you’re poor and can’t afford it?

Forget I said anything. Carry on…

#69 Comrade on 05.04.20 at 6:13 pm

Or try to have consideration for single parents (I am not one) who are tying to look after kids, homeschool them, and work at the same time. School closures were by government.
While it may be true that some businesses acted before government lockdown, but that was result of MSM fear mongering, and message from officials. Even today, as the provinces are opening Trudeau is saying that he wouldn’t be sure if he would send his kids to school, and asking people not to leave the house unless they really have to. Someone can look at the data and say provinces are lifting restrictions, and people are still not going back to work or school, so they are chosing to do so on their own, and ignoring the message that’s coming from higher ups.
After I came from U.S. in early March, and developed mild cough which I usually do after travel, recommendation from nurse line was to isolate myself for 14 days, which I did, and that was a week before any travel ban and lockdowns here in BC. So even if the government didn’t impose lockdowns, people were already advised not go to work if they have any of the following symptoms, cough, sore throat, or fever and self isolate themselves. I don’t get behind that companies did it completely on their own without underlying public health and MSM pressure.

#70 Camille on 05.04.20 at 6:17 pm

As a simple commenter, I congratulate Garth on his most gracious posts yesterday and today. Yesterday was honesty and humility galore, restaint and papa talks to son, while today is the master talking to grasshopper, simple.

#71 Brian Ripley on 05.04.20 at 6:18 pm

My Vancouver housing charts are up:
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

Sales volume is heading towards capitulation.

#72 Juan on 05.04.20 at 6:20 pm

Hi Garth
I noticed you are bullish in stocks, can you please elaborate why the “bull trap” doesn’t apply to stocks?

Sometimes it does. – Garth

#73 Attrition on 05.04.20 at 6:25 pm

Has Garth and steerage reached peak fear, or is it still yet to come?

The reason I ask is that the death rate for Covid 19 in all of Canada, as of about ten minutes ago, is:

0.01022%.

Yes, that’s % and yes, those are real/official numbers.

That sinking in yet?

If you times 0.01022%. by a million apples, you’d have a box of 102 apples. I wonder how many apple farmers would sell the farm if they were loosing 102 apples to disease for every million they harvested.

That is what we are allowing our government to do, to us, right now.

Doesn’t seem very logical, or natural. It’s almost as if we’re being manipulated and controlled by fear.

0.01022%.

All this fuss, all this generational destruction that is yet to come, is about that.

When it comes to real estate, forget the investor lens you see the world through, and instead consider owning a piece or land–even just a lot–that is arable and defensible.

That would be a wise investment.

Because if the government is willing and able to destroy the free market for something with a 0.01022%. death rate, there is nothing they can’t or won’t do.

Just remember, you let it happen.

#74 Trojan House on 05.04.20 at 6:27 pm

#4 Millennial Realist on 05.04.20 at 4:18 pm

Oh my! 3000 by June! Let’s keep it locked down forever because people gonna die. As unfortunate as it is, anyone dying is terrible but I got news for you MR, it happens. The predictions in the US of A was something like 60,000 dead was it not? What is it with millennials these days? They’re afraid of their own shadows.

I can’t wait for your response either because I know what it’s going to be.

#75 Last Gasp on 05.04.20 at 6:30 pm

Spoke with my neighbor heart surgeon who is furloughed during this contradictatory covid holiday. Kind of reminiscent of the 1930 bank holiday, as now … like back … ⁹then everybody had time on their hands but no body had any extra money. Seems what comes around truly does go around and history does rhyme.

Waxing philosophically, he stated that an elegant fibonacci scale of one to twelve ratio as a biological mathematical resonance from trauma event to first phase of systemic healing. In other words if you had twelve years of bad diets it will take one year of very, very clean living to undue the effects of your prior toxic habits (with no cheating in your year of gusticating rehab). Like wise, if I put you into a coma for a month, intubate you, and put you on life support, later I can pharmaceutically wake you up again.

It will require twelve months to get you and your cells back to a prior state of cell health and full repair so all you have are left with just your memories and not your injuries. Some heal faster than others and this is an observation, not a medical law.

Similarly when you put the Canadian economy into an artificialy induced coma for three months it will probably take three years to get it back to where we were in 2019. That does not mean your lifting weights and running marathons, more like just wiping your own behind and being able to file your taxes. Forget the heroic stuff.

Thus, using this cardio metric for T2’s Team Canada, look to 2023 before we get back to a mild, meek ,”almost like normal.” And we are all going to need a lot of hand holding to get there. The biggest loss is trust and confidence, all the while we keep mining our hopium bank account.

It will be interesting.

#76 conan on 05.04.20 at 6:33 pm

Defined-benefit pensions will have to be reviewed.-Garth

I would be taking my federal government pension right now….do not wait. Likewise if you work in a private place that still has these…take the commuted value…do not wait.

#77 will on 05.04.20 at 6:34 pm

Agree. But –

“utility costs will have to rise”

Why?

Same costly infrastructure, fewer industrial/commercial users. So, higher charges. – Garth

#78 Roger on 05.04.20 at 6:37 pm

The man from SF wore there were “less people”.

How do you get “less”? People?

#79 Handsome Ned on 05.04.20 at 6:38 pm

To Sail Away: I was the girl in the middle. Got mad and got a sex change to join the patriarchy. If you criticize my choice, Trudeau will send you to jail.

#80 Steven Rowlandson on 05.04.20 at 6:49 pm

The federal debt was at 733 billion today and climbing and may reach 900 billion plus this year. This is criminal insanity and it must end!
By the way I did not complete my application for the CERB and the situation is likely to stay that way. Dealing with government without being all of the government is too much BS for me.

#81 fishman on 05.04.20 at 6:51 pm

Millenial Realist, Who boomer paleos conservatives are you listening to? That wanna open up. The Trumpster? I listen to the Trumpster because I’m a fanboy. For entertainment, not financial decisions.
Every day this system is locked down,every day we go deeper into debt, every day “lil potato” stuffs free money into your pockets is an up day for me. Its all relative.Things don’t go up in deflation times. Smart boomers got TD’s, gold, cash & no debt. These things stay the same while everything else gets less. And there’s no taxes. Hard too get taxes with no gains. You Millenials are going to climb out of this hole with no cash, no job & debt. Only anchor ever increasing wealthier boomers carry is a millennial kid or two e-mailing tasty west van view semi-waterfront, Arthur Ericsson type builds for 1.5 million. Of course if she shuts down too long & can’t get started things can get real mean. Then the worm turns & its your time to rock & roll. Us boomers will be hiding.

#82 Barney on 05.04.20 at 6:54 pm

Millenial Realist #4
Your ragging on the paleo-conservative boomer has one serious flaw. You quoted the failing New York Times. You lost all credibility right there.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.20 at 6:56 pm

Due to the Trudeau enforced lock down of all dangerous activities…….
My hair is almost long enough to do the “comb over” of my male pattern baldness like Trump.
Does anyone know where I can get a bottle of fake blonde to cover my wispy, thinning, patchy, gray locks?
Or should I just keep wearing a MAGA baseball hat?

https://globalnews.ca/news/6573558/maga-hat-pigeons-trump/

#84 WAKEUP on 05.04.20 at 6:57 pm

I think what’s important to consider is the elephant in the room, the fact that nothings really changed regarding the Virus.
It hasn’t been contained and an asymptotic carrier can have it and show no signs but be contagious for up to 21 days, with recent US Navy research suggesting up to 28 days.

Think about the implications of that, the Virus is highly contagious and can live on surfaces for days, it’s a time bomb that’s not fully understood.

Virologists are regularly saying that the Virus is causing new and different symptoms.
Yesterday it was reported that babies were going into full system shut down, and had to be resuscitated.

There’s loads of excitement and hedging on a vaccine but the Virus has mutated numerous times according to ongoing research.
That makes the odds of a effective vaccine very very slim.

The percentage of people that have died from the Virus after admittance to the hospitals is quite high.

Of the 1.1 million admitted to hospitals and 251k deaths that equates to a 17% mortality rate.

With the growing speculation and recent intel that the Virus has gain of function characteristics if proven to be correct means that a monster has been released on mankind.

It’s understandable that we all want things to return to where they were but nothings really changed.

The UN has announced that the spin off from this virus could lead to the starvation of hundreds of thousands of people, into the millions if its not harnessed soon.
Projections of up to 340k deaths in third world countries a day.

#85 BillinBC on 05.04.20 at 6:57 pm

#78 Roger
“The man from SF wore there were “less people”.
How do you get “less”? People?”

Exactly…Grammar Police should be called. It is “FEWER people. Use when the objects are countable. “Less” something is use with non-countable objects such as “less water”.

#86 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 6:58 pm

#79 Handsome Ned on 05.04.20 at 6:38 pm

To Sail Away: I was the girl in the middle. Got mad and got a sex change to join the patriarchy. If you criticize my choice, Trudeau will send you to jail.

————

Haha

#87 Lost...but not leased on 05.04.20 at 6:58 pm

#76 conan on 05.04.20 at 6:33 pm
Defined-benefit pensions will have to be reviewed.-Garth

I would be taking my federal government pension right now….do not wait. Likewise if you work in a private place that still has these…take the commuted value…do not wait.

==========================

A colleague sent me a scanned copy of “RE-Deployment” document for a Local Gov’ts CUPE employees.

In summary…the gist appears to be based on seniority…that a person with say 20 years seniority and say a secretary has to be willing to be assigned to a diverse number of options…even outside labour jobs.

Seems to be a way to keep job if one has lots of seniority..but lower seniority rung could be SOL..ie a person 35 years old with say 10 years service as a Water Works employee could be laid off..if not outright terminated.. to make room for a 45 year old secretary with 20 years seniority.

THUS:
Defined benefits for even Civil Servants will increasingly be a thing of the past…moreso with a General Public that is taking on the chin and gut….and will not tolerate the fiscal pain not being shared.

#88 Steve French on 05.04.20 at 6:59 pm

Garth:

In these last posts you are now fully grasping the severity of the situation!

SteveO

#89 joblo on 05.04.20 at 7:00 pm

Just for balance, Lieberals & MSM (especially CBC), a daily tally of new cases and deaths from Abuse, Suicides, Alcoholism, Depression and Drug use (your contribution to is noted) please.

#90 DataP on 05.04.20 at 7:04 pm

With respect to Bob, it is very easy for people who work in Technology to seamlessly transition to a home office, and be just as productive for their organization. I know, it is exactly what I have done.
But as pointed out.. restaurants, hair salons, and a plethora of other service industries are not as flexible. But these are businesses who employ a huge portion of the countries people.
When these smaller but valuable business’s go under, who will be left to pay the huge residual tax burden? Who will have the earnings needed to repay this government spend fest?
IT processionals? Nurses? Doctors? Teachers? The evil rich? Anyone who owns anything outright?
All of the above.
The roller coaster is almost at the top, so hang on.

#91 Nonplused on 05.04.20 at 7:07 pm

I agree with Ben, a good portion of the population was starting to take safety measures before the government made them mandatory and will continue to do so when the lock down is lifted. The toilet paper panic started before the government did anything. Not everyone is a covidiot. This is why you don’t see widespread dismissal of the rules by the population. If the government tried this sort of overreach without the consent of the people the people would just ignore it. Some already are. Oh well Darwin will have his day I suppose.

I myself am increasingly more concerned that there is a black swan (the pandemic is a white swan) out there in the financial system that will hit in June or July, or maybe as late as October. Remember the crash of 2008 started in the subprime market, and “Helicopter Ben” said it was “contained”. This time around nearly everyone is defaulting (not paying rent, deferring mortgage payments, not paying their Visa cards, etc.). And this could go on well past September. Coupled with banks tightening lending standards and even the employed may not be able to buy a house. That will trickle down to car loans and credit card applications soon. The governments tried to front run the problem this time by making massive injections of money into the economy before anything broke, but will it work? Just because it worked in 2008, when the problem was largely constrained to the over-leveraged banking sector, doesn’t mean it is going to work when applied to the entire over-leveraged economy. The entire over-leveraged economy depends on cash flow and it is “just in time”, as has been discussed by Garth many times. Half the population is less than $200 a month from not paying the bills (or something like that) and that is when they are working. Many of the recently unemployed aren’t going back to work for some time, especially if we get another spike once the lock-downs are lifted.

And now we get news that new cases aren’t really dropping by as much as was hoped. Deaths are dropping but not new cases. The lock-downs may have been for nothing.

There is still much that is unknown about this virus, and much that is unknown about the affect the government reaction will have. It is early days yet and many of the policies are just starting to roll out. Time will tell. However I am beginning to believe it was a mistake to believe the reports and follow the advice that came from the Chinese Communist Party. We never thought that was a good idea before. How did it suddenly become one?

Other news coming out of China is that cell phone subscriptions have fallen by some 20 million. Oops, forgot to censor that one. Never happened before, in China the cell phone subscription numbers only go up. Now, there could be many explanations for this including the most probable being economic hardship, but it could also indicate that the death toll is an order of magnitude higher than what they are reporting. There is no way to tell, it is the fog of war. Time will tell, but for now we are all just feeling around in the dark.

#92 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.04.20 at 7:15 pm

#188 Faron on 05.04.20 at 4:22 pm sez:

“So, for the record, you are saying that you understand that climate change is real and a real problem?!”
———————————————————
No one says that climate change isn’t a problem. Where we disagree is what the cause is and if there’s anything peoplekind can do about it.

Except adapt.

Like humanity always has.

#93 conan on 05.04.20 at 7:15 pm

#64 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 5:56 pm

Humor me for a minute because I have never been able to figure it out.

Why is it Justin’s fault when Alberta has had 40 years of Conservative government and 10 years, when they were running the entire she-bang?

#94 NFN_NLN on 05.04.20 at 7:16 pm

#21 JSS on 05.04.20 at 4:46 pm

Of course not. Debt is debt. It only disappears when you pay it off. – Garth

Love to be a stickler, but there are (5) historical methods for shedding debt.

1. Tax
2. Sell Assets (ie Alaska)
3. Inflation
4. Seize Assets (ie War)
5. Abolish debts

I think #4 is my favorite because of the irony of trying to save lives from a virus. Anyone not paying attention to the “North Taiwan Sea” will foolishly dismiss this one.

Some countries are floating #5: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3qUS3DlfXg&feature=youtu.be&t=8m0s

#95 Flop... on 05.04.20 at 7:22 pm

This blog is getting too expensive for me.

I was so sure that Scurvy Sailor was going to win Greaterfool Knob Of The Year, on this blog, that I placed a $10k bet at the bookmakers.

And then Faron turned up.

Could be a dead heat…

M45BC

#96 Tbone on 05.04.20 at 7:22 pm

# 66 asterix1

Purple bricks is a real estate company that will list your place on the mls for a nominal fee

They were called com free a few years ago . I used them and sold a rental property a few years ago .

Just be aware that real estate agents will ignore your listing and it will take longer to sell as they won’t show your place to their customers. They may call you and try to negotiate a deal and if you cooperate you will sell quicker .

My property was for land value in a desirable area so was an easy sell in a hot market . I ended up paying a little over 1 % commission on the sale as I made a deal with an agent .

#97 MGTOW on 05.04.20 at 7:23 pm

The guy in that photo is my hero.

#98 Deplorable Dude on 05.04.20 at 7:29 pm

Hmmm? So BC just released some graphs showing peak infections rates.

The peak and decline starts pretty much on the day of our ‘lockdown’, 15th of March.

However diagnosed infections is a lagging indicator.
Given the incubation period of upto 2 weeks that means in BC we reached the peak and started declining before lockdown.

So lockdown is a waste of time.

What am I missing?

https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/news/b-c-records-170-excess-deaths-so-far-during-covid-19-pandemic/?fbclid=IwAR1IQOBAbTO7D5A9hOgaMAH5BzDg9Z-9r7GKyDasJuk8i98JLXQBFL-CQ_s

#99 Work from home if you can on 05.04.20 at 7:32 pm

#6 LP

Working from home has been a Dogsend for us, and we were doing it long before covid. Our house is only 1950 sqft on the main floor (but it does have a fully developed walkout basement, so it is bigger than it seems). That gives us room for not 1, not 2, not 3, 4, but 5 desks for working on. Mind you we have a desk in every bedroom except the master and 2 elsewhere.

And we are saving a lot of money on transportation and clothing and eating lunch at the food court. When you save money, you reduce your carbon footprint. It’s all win-win, even if I have to pay to power the computers, which is small change. We were already paying for everything else.

The only downside seems to be that the automatic thermostat is kind of useless except at night.

#100 Steven Nicolle on 05.04.20 at 7:35 pm

Garth I like reading your posts. However I have to say some of these comments are really apathetic toward others who just maybe are having a tougher time than they are right now for more than financial reasons even. I couldn’t sleep at night if I put some of these on a comment and sent it. I like to think I am part of a majority who think the same.

#101 Darwin on 05.04.20 at 7:37 pm

#30 May the 4th Be With You on 05.04.20 at 5:07 pm
There will be an uprising and revolution against all of this, starting on Monday, May 4th.

Be there.

Do. Or do not. There is no try.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQ4yd2W50No

———————-

Still no thanks.

#102 Jay on 05.04.20 at 7:40 pm

Our school setup a drive by parade so that teachers could see their students. Waving from their cars. Mothers and children went to go stand on the sidewalk, way more than 2 metres apart to go wave at their teachers. They were excited about it for days.

Someone came out to scream at the kids to get back in their house. Walking along the entire route, swearing at them and their parents, some who were nurses. The day was ruined, and the kids are now afraid of going outside, afraid of random people screaming at them. They have already forgotten their friends, they walk around like zombies, they haven’t smiled in weeks.

This is what we have become, driven by fear. People are on social media screaming “its too early!”. Data be damned, we need to save lives.

I don’t want to live in this country anymore.

#103 Triplenet on 05.04.20 at 7:46 pm

#22 Felix

Woof you !
– Rex

#104 Nonplused on 05.04.20 at 7:47 pm

#56 Earth to Justin the Tone Deaf on 05.04.20 at 5:43 pm
Personally, I could care less about “assault rifles”. They mean nothing to me as the term “assault rifle” is meaningless. Any rifle can be used as an “assault rifle”, even a BB gun.

————————

Don’t worry about it. The law is redundant assault riffles have been illegal in Canada for a long time. The best you could do was a semi-automatic with 5 in the clip and all the guns sold in Canada that look like their US counterparts have complied. So what Trudeau has done is just ban guns that look like assault riffles. A hunting rifle is just as dangerous. So is a shot gun at close range.

#105 NFN_NLN on 05.04.20 at 7:48 pm

#59 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 5:44 pm
And to think, the whacko leftists on Twitter wanted to give Trudeau emergency powers for 2 yrs. Wont even take that long. Trudeau will have destroyed Canada in 6 months. Thanks Toronto.

Recession coming… we’ve got a plan for that:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTMBgZApXWU&t=1m48s

#106 Shawn on 05.04.20 at 7:50 pm

Someone forgot to tell the Canadian technology sector (XIT) that the economy is in a depression. New all time highs this week?

#107 Shawn on 05.04.20 at 7:50 pm

The US software sector isn’t far off. IGV

#108 Sail Away on 05.04.20 at 7:51 pm

#96 Flop… on 05.04.20 at 7:22 pm

This blog is getting too expensive for me.

I was so sure that Scurvy Sailor was going to win Greaterfool Knob Of The Year, on this blog, that I placed a $10k bet…

—————-

I know, right? I bet $10k that you’d go stomping off in another tantrum, but here you are… Looks like we’re both losers. We’ll just have to make the best of a bad situation it seems.

#109 BS on 05.04.20 at 7:52 pm

One interesting thing I heard was the virus has caused pandemonium in places like India where many North American call centres and even some tech workers are located. These call centres were run 24/7 and are now shutdown. In India and other developing nations they don’t have access to decent phones or high speed internet at home. They are essentially shutdown rather than working from home like here. Just anther reason we should see jobs coming back to North America.

#110 Shirl Clarts on 05.04.20 at 7:53 pm

#5 Stone on 05.04.20 at 4:24 pm
In all honesty, do I actually need to care about any of this?

I don’t own a house. My assets are all liquid (7 figures). I’m employed (even if I get cut, I get nearly 2 years of severance). If it was really necessary, I can pick up and move (to a lower tax jurisdiction).

What am I missing here?

Nothing, because it’s all about you. – Garth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Ouch! Burn.

Listen, Stone. If you could have moved to a lower tax jurisdiction (BC, Ontario), you would have done so already.

“b-b-b-but I rent, I have mobility!”. Sure, but it has limitations – we can only venture where our lifestyles afford us to go.

The fact is, you are about as stuck – living in a not so pleasant but geographically affordable area – as the rest of us. After moving to the coast, rent or not, you can count on serious lifestyle or portfolio changes. Take your pick.

#111 Shawn on 05.04.20 at 7:54 pm

If the Nasdaq hits 10000 this year I’m buying a Tesla. ;)

#112 Jay on 05.04.20 at 7:54 pm

#84 WAKEUP on 05.04.20 at 6:57 pm

Go back to hording toilet paper, and quit fear mongering. Why don’t you tell us your real agenda. This thing has killed almost no one healthy under the age of 70.

#113 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 7:56 pm

#93 conan on 05.04.20 at 7:15 pm

Because I don’t remember any conservative govt with the hate on for oil, do you? Anybody you ever remember except PET actually passing legislation to hurt an industry?

#114 Paul on 05.04.20 at 7:56 pm

I agree Garth with RE.
However… who knows what they will do in Ottawa. More free money, maybe cover their mortgage payments and blame the 2% for their poor financial decisions. Look at the bright side, the budget will balance itself.

#115 Flop... on 05.04.20 at 7:57 pm

#80 Steven Rowlandson on 05.04.20 at 6:49 pm
The federal debt was at 733 billion today and climbing and may reach 900 billion plus this year. This is criminal insanity and it must end!
By the way I did not complete my application for the CERB and the situation is likely to stay that way. Dealing with government without being all of the government is too much BS for me.

///////////////

You still struggling in Barrie, Steven?

Did you see the post someone from Barrie put up the other day about having trouble finding construction workers, because they are all on CERB and don’t wanna come back to work.

Could be an opportunity for you.

Forget about writing about genocide for a while.

You could find a decent job to get you through to retirement and out of your car.

Seize the moment…

M45BC

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.20 at 7:59 pm

@#98 MGTOW
“The guy in that photo is my hero.”
+++
Yeesh.
Until he gets caught , gets divorced, gets skinned alive in Court, get’s dumped by the “other” woman…
OR
Those are his sisters and they’re headed to Church!

#117 BS on 05.04.20 at 8:00 pm

99 Deplorable Dude on 05.04.20 at 7:29 pm
Hmmm? So BC just released some graphs showing peak infections rates.

The peak and decline starts pretty much on the day of our ‘lockdown’, 15th of March.

However diagnosed infections is a lagging indicator.
Given the incubation period of upto 2 weeks that means in BC we reached the peak and started declining before lockdown.

So lockdown is a waste of time.

What am I missing?

Nothing other than you believed what the government told you. Remember the lock down was to flatten the curve. Looks more like declining and past flat to me. The government enjoyed the control so much they have moved the goal posts to eliminate the virus. Of course the virus will not be eliminated until there is a vaccine a year or more away. Expect more control. After that it will be the next virus they need to control you over. Left wing governments. Get used to it as long as they are in power or until the country is bankrupt.

#118 Don Guillermo on 05.04.20 at 8:03 pm

#92 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.04.20 at 7:15 pm
#188 Faron on 05.04.20 at 4:22 pm sez:
“So, for the record, you are saying that you understand that climate change is real and a real problem?!”
———————————————————
No one says that climate change isn’t a problem. Where we disagree is what the cause is and if there’s anything peoplekind can do about it.
Except adapt.
Like humanity always has
*****************************************
And we aren’t going to solve climate change with solar, wind or bio mass energies.

#119 Goober on 05.04.20 at 8:04 pm

Hey CERB recipients. If you’re worried about money after your $8000 runs out, looks like the issue of universal benefits for all just won’t go away: https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/arts-and-life/life/faith/anglican-lutheran-bishops-argue-for-minimum-income-program-570160892.html
As it’s been mentioned before, this issue has many social and economic facets. While T2 has recently downplayed his support for UB, I can’t see this not popping up continually as we manage to dig ourselves out of the post-pandemic world.

#120 Shawn on 05.04.20 at 8:07 pm

One has to wonder if the traditional banks will be disrupted in the 2020s the way the oil companies were disrupted in the 2010s.

#121 Dirty Dan on 05.04.20 at 8:08 pm

#53 Piano_Man87 on 05.04.20 at 5:34 pm
If you can, please donate to your local foodbank. Families are going to be struggling more than ever right now.

Are these the same families that gave Trudeau and his economy destroying lock-down a 79% approval rating?

Let them eat cake.

#122 Not sure what to say on 05.04.20 at 8:15 pm

To the last commenter deplorable dude. Yes interesting stats, the argument is that without lock down it would have been worst. But makes you wonder if they panicked for nothing, we will never know. Like I say over and over again 870,000 people on Vancouver island and we average one case a day. So where are all the asymptomatic people where are all the cases. Mean while people die from missed surgery. Thousands on the dole and a wrecked economy. Good job, and no one in BC was against sending pulp to the US after they banned sending masks to Canada, golly gee we saved 100 jobs.

Back to Garth
Thanks again for posting every day
Today made me want to sell all my stocks ha ha

I know i know I have visions of this long haired chiseled ab dude with his dog along side, riding the roller coaster yelling hang on! Hang on!

Yep hang on for dear life! grin!

I think the recovery is way out there. You never mention the D word but it might be a pretty bad recession.
I worry allot but your are correct the sun does shine. I guess I am better than most folks I don’t worry about my business going under and bills to pay. Just worry my portfolio is down.
On an up note started an online training business today cost nothing. So we shall see.

Have a great week, buy and guess and sell and guess do not time the market. But your REIT you mentioned was down 2 bucks on the day did you sell or did you buy?

#123 MF on 05.04.20 at 8:16 pm

I agree about real estate being negatively impacted.

“Virus spending’s off the charts. Governments can’t just borrow the money from the Bank of Canada, which creates it out of faerie dust and unicorn flatulence (as the Mills believe). So taxes are going up. A lot.”

-This part I’m a little skeptical of. Who was responsible for 2008? Zero interest rates? Hint: not millennials.

And I agree with Ben. The virus was coming whether we like it or not. It’s on its own time. It couldn’t care less about economies, debts, emotions, and unemployment rates. It’s mother nature. And there will be more of them, too.

MF

#124 Blog Dog du Jour on 05.04.20 at 8:26 pm

Anyone still planning on contributing to an RRSP after this when you have seen exactly what a government can do to a decent economy?

I seriously wonder if the TFSA is even safe? Can the gov scoop that away as well?

#125 Figure it Out on 05.04.20 at 8:32 pm

I’d find it a lot easier to believe that we/the government will have to pay all this money back, if I could believe that we borrowed it from somebody in the first place.

If you added up all the cash, bank accounts, and coins in jars held by all the people, pension funds, banks, insurance companies and non-financial corporations worldwide, even hidden in tax havens, you wouldn’t get anywhere near the $4(?) trillion the US is borrowing, plus Canada’s $150 billion, plus all the other countries’ bar tabs. Even Buffett’s $120 billion+ in “cash” is in T bills.

If the cash wasn’t available to be borrowed then the cash wasn’t borrowed. So how can it need to be paid back?

It was maybe believable when Canada was “only” borrowing an extra $20-30 billion a year, and the US only a trillion, back in those halcyon days a few months ago. But if I’d asked you then whether the US could borrow an extra $3T and Canada an extra $200B, you’d have said of course not. Nobody had that much cash to lend.

Yet here we are. This is MMT.

#126 Blog Dog du Jour on 05.04.20 at 8:37 pm

Local knowledge – some industrial customers in GTA cannot afford to pay their electricity bill at the moment.

I really do not think the government has a clue the kind of damage they have done to Canada. This is not what I call protecting Canadians from harm it’s the direct opposite.

Why isn’t there more opposition to rank stupidity?

#127 MF on 05.04.20 at 8:42 pm

#123 Not sure what to say on 05.04.20 at 8:15 pm

“Like I say over and over again 870,000 people on Vancouver island and we average one case a day. So where are all the asymptomatic people where are all the cases. Mean while people die from missed surgery. Thousands on the dole and a wrecked economy. Good job,”

-I’d say 1 case/day is a good thing, and it’s a measurable goal. The other examples are simply hypotheticals (which are hard to measure).

MF

#128 Ronaldo on 05.04.20 at 8:44 pm

#76 conan on 05.04.20 at 6:33 pm
Defined-benefit pensions will have to be reviewed.-Garth

I would be taking my federal government pension right now….do not wait. Likewise if you work in a private place that still has these…take the commuted value…do not wait.
—————————————————————–
Good idea assuming you are able to take the commuted value. One should check this out before they get a surprise.

https://www.advisor.ca/retirement/retirement-news/are-you-entitled-to-a-commuted-value/

#129 Flop... on 05.04.20 at 8:47 pm

It’s expected to be 23 degrees in Vancouver this weekend.

That’s camping weather, for sure.

As Global News B.C continues to disintegrate, I find myself watching more of the Washington State stations.

They released their lockdown reversal plan the other day.

Camping was listed in Phase 2, so it’s on their radar.

I just need permission to cross the border, or I can just walk across with my family and no documents and a suitcase, like I see on tele all the time…

M45BC

#130 MF on 05.04.20 at 8:50 pm

#113 Jay on 05.04.20 at 7:54 pm
#84 WAKEUP on 05.04.20 at 6:57 pm

Go back to hording toilet paper, and quit fear mongering. Why don’t you tell us your real agenda. This thing has killed almost no one healthy under the age of 70.

-You mean like 40 year old Nick Cordero, the dancer.

He’s still alive..just maimed, and listed as “recovered” in the stats.

MF

#131 short horses on 05.04.20 at 8:54 pm

that picture tho

#132 Faron on 05.04.20 at 8:55 pm

#119 Don Guillermo on 05.04.20 at 8:03 pm

#92 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.04.20 at 7:15 pm
#188 Faron on 05.04.20 at 4:22 pm sez:

“So, for the record, you are saying that you understand that climate change is real and a real problem?!”

———————————————————
” No one says that climate change isn’t a problem. Where we disagree is what the cause is”

The cause is the burning of fossil fuels. There is zero question among anyone who knows radiative transfer or paleoclimate (I know both well) that this is the case.

“and if there’s anything peoplekind can do about it.”

Stop burning relic carbon reservoirs. It’s simple. Implementing that is not simple.

” Except adapt.
Like humanity always has”

Agreed. But getting from here to fully adapted will be a mess unless measures are taken. If nothing is done, the adaptation will have to happen quickly and the period of adaptation will be fraught with famine, war and economic decline.

” And we aren’t going to solve climate change with solar, wind or bio mass energies.”

Wind will work for sure, solar yes, nuclear certainly to cover for the windless and sunless times. Bio mass not so much. The movie had that right. Biomass is glorified garbage disposal. A dumpster fire if you will.

Fun fact. If CO2 production goes on unchecked for another century, warm high humidity areas will become lethal to mammals that rely on sweat to cool themselves. Think of that. All the furry critters in the forests in the SEern US will drop dead. Humans that can afford to cool themselves in AC will be fine, but the ecosystems will be trashed.

#133 Mike on 05.04.20 at 9:01 pm

LOWER BRAINLAND home prices won’t come down….bring on whatever Virus.

#134 MF on 05.04.20 at 9:01 pm

#59 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 5:44 pm
And to think, the whacko leftists on Twitter wanted to give Trudeau emergency powers for 2 yrs. Wont even take that long. Trudeau will have destroyed Canada in 6 months. Thanks Toronto.

-That’s your problem right there. You’re on twitter.

Step back from the computer. Breathe. Now delete your account and never go back.

You’re welcome.

MF

#135 Westopia on 05.04.20 at 9:02 pm

#11 Somethings up…” SO WHAT WERE GOVERNMENTS SUPPOSE TO DO??”

Sweden…

https://globalnews.ca/news/6901068/coronavirus-sweden-approach/

#136 Dolce Vita on 05.04.20 at 9:05 pm

#73 Attrition and “0.01022%”

Other fun mortality facts:

Road Fatalities: 0.005%
Flu: 0.004%
Suicide: 0.01%
Heart Attacks: 0.11%
Every death in Canada: 0.75%

Using your very bad Math “supported “conclusion and in light of the above %’s it follows that Canada should then abandon…

#137 Second time in a week ... on 05.04.20 at 9:07 pm

a different bank has called just “to see if I’m OK.” The guy from the big bank today asked if now was a good time to talk. I said actually no … what do you want? “Oh … we are just touching base with our clients to see that they are OK.” I told him I was just fine and he got the message. Wonder what he was selling?

#138 Trojan House on 05.04.20 at 9:08 pm

Take a second to think of your “new normal” (I hate this propaganda phrase). What does it mean or look like to you? For example, for me:

My daughter plays competitive minor hockey. She was just recruited to play at a university in the US. However, how can minor hockey start up again if there are physical distancing rules still in place? You can’t have crowded arena waiting areas. Imagine multi-rink complexes. There are sometimes hundreds of people there. And forget about minor hockey tournaments. I feel bad for my daughter as she may not be able to play again anytime soon. Tryouts for next season have been cancelled and there is no timeline for its return.

Speaking of hockey, how will it be possible for the NHL to return for the same reasons as above. They won’t allow 18,000 people in one place. Sure, they can play in empty arenas but most teams make money from ticket/gate revenue and concessions. Sure they can televise them but I can see where instead of being broadcast for free, it will be by pay-per-view for every game. I could not afford this at all. I only attend one or two games per year because it costs so much.

Anyway, those are a couple of my thoughts. What are yours?

#139 Toni on 05.04.20 at 9:14 pm

#97 MF on 05.03.20 at 9:54 pm
——————
#95 Toni on 05.03.20 at 9:44 pm
“I sincerely wish I am wrong but I don’t see nothing fun about the demographic and social perspective here.”

-So I guess you’ll be moving to Africa then. Best demographics on the planet (youngest).

MF
—-
Thanks for the recommendation. As a matter of fact, I lived and worked there for 8 years. Beautiful human and eye-opening experience.

#140 Lawnboy on 05.04.20 at 9:19 pm

#116 Flop
Perfect!!! Just perfect said.

The fall of 1981 was much the same as today for me, Calgary bust, high rates, few prospects, so I sucked it up, quit my job, went college as a mature student. I made more money, on my first coop than ever! (Computer Electronics Tech).

One day I was sucking up to a prof (Phd Physics), and he asks , “ what have YOU done, show me your work”!!!
Floored me, really, so embarrassed. He was right. I never ever forgot that day.

So Flop, the jist of your words…..Hey Buddy,…What is your plan, what have you done? I have a pic of Einstein with the words “ never confuse motion with action”.

Stop the lip service and DROP the CLUTCH. !!!!
Mother of God!!!

Lb

#141 DON on 05.04.20 at 9:22 pm

I have to agree with Ben re working from home.

Been reading all the business news and most companies were already investing in work from home infrastructure to decrease costly office space and the virus was the trigger to speed this up.

Some governments were allowing work from home for at least one or two days a week. It is a big space/money savings issue. Plus, people are learning to make good coffee/meals at home and when they realize the savings………..’Emergency funds’ the new buzz words.

Of course the young will keep on living outside immediately, but the older folk (with most of the money) may not venture out so quickly, affecting tourism etc.

I drove through retirement mecca Van Isle (basically no older people to be found). One or two folks on the Beaches, that’s it! Some restaurants appeared open but social distancing was obvious (again hardly any older folk). They represent the bread and butter for various businesses in these towns. Summer student jobs based on tourism and most students will go home given up their rental digs. More rentals on the market, most colleges and unis are online right now – it was slowing going that way (most subjects other than lab work).

The virus is a catalyst in so many ways.

Also with more people working from home, less car needs, less take out food needs, but easier more enjoyable commutes for those that have to and cleaner air. There’s always a silver lining.

The economy was suspect prior to the big chill out, why would we expect all 8 cylinders to fire up with a turn of a key? Buffet sitting on the sidelines seems to have spooked a lot of professionals over the weekend.

#142 Stone on 05.04.20 at 9:26 pm

#122 Dirty Dan on 05.04.20 at 8:08 pm
#53 Piano_Man87 on 05.04.20 at 5:34 pm
If you can, please donate to your local foodbank. Families are going to be struggling more than ever right now.

Are these the same families that gave Trudeau and his economy destroying lock-down a 79% approval rating?

Let them eat cake.

———

Now, had you instead said, “did these same people make an effort to save for a rainy day?” and the answer was “no.”, then I would agree.

Instead, you would burn people for their right to vote and that’s not appropriate.

Don’t worry. Karma’s a bitch and she’ll have her way with you, that is, if she hasn’t already. I have a feeling you’ve already had a taste of her considering how bitter you are.

I used to volunteer in a food bank and saw what a cycle of dependence it created. The food bank wasn’t there to help people, only ensure those working at the food bank continued to get funding and donations and therefore, in almost all cases, encouraged the recipients not to improve their lot in life because without them, the foodbank would need to close. That system is not set up to automatically wean people off the dole. When it does become that, I’ll have a different opinion. Considering human nature being what it is, I’ll be waiting a long time.

#143 John in Mtl on 05.04.20 at 9:31 pm

@ #4 Millennial Realist on 05.04.20 at 4:18 pm

” …So true. Particularly destructive will be the “lens” of the paleo-conservative boomers who are insisting on reopening everything now, in spite of common sense.”

Not necessarily just the boomers pushing a quick reopening. Its more the “freedom lovin’, gun totin’ rednecks that know-it-all. I can’t fault them too much though, the US government (and their revolving-door experts) has been less than honest for dozens and dozens of years now; and that’s putting it very mildly. Is it any wonder they don’t trust the government? I for one sure don’t, been watching this game for too many years.

#144 BrianT on 05.04.20 at 9:32 pm

#4Millenial-If you keep your eyes open eventually you might realize that if you read it in the NY Times it is never accurate and quite often a blatant lie-that is why it is called the Toilet Paper of Record.

#145 joe on 05.04.20 at 9:34 pm

step 1 fix the dollar. end the petro dollar and copy japans attempt at a global investment fund. that or cheat and peg the yen.

step 2 eliminate income tax, corporate tax and corporate benefits. these do not allow small companies to compete with large companies, or allow our country to compete with other countries on an even playing field. replace with user taxes and universal care.

step 3 have a UBI but make working have a financial reward. the cost to working is quite high, wages must fairly compensate.

step 4 – force unions to not discriminate based on age, sex, religion. the largest employer in the country is the government. their workforce is not an even representation of the demographics of the country mostly because unions defend their members at the expense of discrimination. it is the governments job to force unions to not discriminate, especially when they are the government is themselves the largest offender of breaking the law.

step 5 – fix transfer payments. transfer payments should be based on the fair economic value of the provinces resources and user tax income. not including hydro seems to be a baseless and unfair foundation. many provinces are also allowing large amounts of illegal un-taxed products (pot beer cigarettes, cars, houses). If ontario and bc are going to turn a blind eye to billions in lost pot tax that should be their problem. another large issue is paper companies effectively having free rent on crown land. if the company cant pay its taxes than the land should be appropriated.

#146 Living and learning on 05.04.20 at 9:37 pm

New Brunswick adopted hydroxychloroquine and one month later, all 118 covid patients recovered, no death, no active case.

https://twitter.com/Covid19Crusher/status/1256869896014704640

#147 Dolce Vita on 05.04.20 at 9:38 pm

#26 Deplorable Dude

The last BS estimate provided by the equally BS Gov Sweden was 25%, people with Coronavirus antibodies.

They forgot to mention that was for Stockholm only and later retracted the number to say at most it was 10-17% (when Imperial College challenged their BS).

So those fun facts from”Authoritative Right Wing” news source The Spectator (David and Frederick Barclay, the owners, that alone should explain it all).

In fact the Swedes believe their Gov so much that in the town of Lund they did this:

“Dump a ton of chicken manure in a major park in an attempt to deter thousands from visiting for an end-of-winter celebration”

If you have ever been to Sweden during End-of-Winter Celebration, you’d understand that was a big deal.

In fact, its nearby lockdown Nordic Noir neighbors Denmark, Finland and Norway (total population = 16.7MM) all locked down and doing much, much better in # of deaths. Sweden (10.23MM) has this many more deaths than the other 3 combined:

65% more deaths.

YEAH Herd Immunity, yet another victory…as if.

#148 Faron on 05.04.20 at 9:40 pm

#99 Deplorable Dude on 05.04.20 at 7:29 pm

The peak and decline starts pretty much on the day of our ‘lockdown’, 15th of March.

I’m pretty sure they report the back projected date of infection when they report “episode date”. Here’s the fed’s language:

“*Episode date corresponds to the earliest date reported according to the following order: Symptom onset Date, Specimen Collection Date, Laboratory Testing Date, Date reported to the province/territory or Date reported to PHAC.”

This builds in lag.

#149 Drill Baby Drill on 05.04.20 at 9:52 pm

Stone #5
“I’m employed (even if I get cut, I get nearly 2 years of severance).”

Complete BS

#150 Dolce Vita on 05.04.20 at 9:53 pm

Some bone chilling analysis today Garth but true and well done. And a lot of pushback here today…a lot of your flock not financially happy.

But the alternative was to let the virus run rampant unchecked. They should have done that instead.

If they had, the “flock” today would instead be happy about the deaths, their money intact and that those deaths were acceptable losses.

As long as it wasn’t them and in the ultimate arrogance they would not have died ’cause they’re Superman and love the current odds of death, of course those are the odds when under lockdown…the other odds we will never know.

That’s the Canadian version of humanity for you from far too many in your “flock”.

Money over people.

What ever happened to your humanity?

#151 Drill Baby Drill on 05.04.20 at 9:55 pm

#21 JSS
“So if house prices fall, will the HELOC’s registered against them also fall in proportion?”
WTF?? Are you kidding? No you pay the original contracted dollar amount.

#152 Ballingsford on 05.04.20 at 9:55 pm

#138 Second time in a week … on 05.04.20 at 9:07 pm
a different bank has called just “to see if I’m OK.” The guy from the big bank today asked if now was a good time to talk. I said actually no … what do you want? “Oh … we are just touching base with our clients to see that they are OK.” I told him I was just fine and he got the message. Wonder what he was selling.
–‐—–‐–

Tell him or her you would like some mvestment advice and string them along. Theyll transfer you in short order and then hang up, or have some more fun at the other end.

#153 Ronaldo on 05.04.20 at 9:57 pm

#78 Roger on 05.04.20 at 6:37 pm
The man from SF wore there were “less people”.

How do you get “less”? People?
———————————————————–
How do you get “wore”?

https://www.quora.com/Which-is-correct-less-people-or-few-people

#154 sean on 05.04.20 at 10:09 pm

#188 Faron on 05.04.20 at 4:22 pm (yesterday’s post):
“So, for the record, you are saying that you understand that climate change is real and a real problem?!”

#92 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.04.20 at 7:15 pm
“No one says that climate change isn’t a problem. Where we disagree is what the cause is and if there’s anything peoplekind can do about it.’

——-

Ah yes, stage three of the “four stage strategy” (ref. BBC “Yes Prime Minister”, season 1, episode 6, 1986):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak

Stage four is when they tell you that maybe there was something we could have done, but it’s too late now (sigh) :-)

M52ON

#155 Tony on 05.04.20 at 10:10 pm

Re: #15 Howard on 05.04.20 at 4:40 pm

All that’s left in the housing market is speculators. Everything here depends on what happens to the American and Australian residential housing markets.

#156 Chaddywack on 05.04.20 at 10:10 pm

All I know is that on the west side of Vancouver the houses that are selling are mostly going well above asking. I never understood houses selling 2-300k above asking during the heart of COVID with no competition….why would you ever bid above asking if you’re the only one!? but it happens!

I was having trouble digesting this, but the bull trap situation makes perfect sense. We were looking.

Not anymore.

#157 Al on 05.04.20 at 10:11 pm

Ontario landlords will have to wait until after July 6, 2020 before the Landlord & Tenant Board will come out of its deep slumber to hear eviction applications for non-payment of rent!

#158 DON on 05.04.20 at 10:26 pm

#99 Deplorable Dude on 05.04.20 at 7:29 pm

Hmmm? So BC just released some graphs showing peak infections rates.

The peak and decline starts pretty much on the day of our ‘lockdown’, 15th of March.

However diagnosed infections is a lagging indicator.
Given the incubation period of upto 2 weeks that means in BC we reached the peak and started declining before lockdown.

So lockdown is a waste of time.

What am I missing?

https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/news/b-c-records-170-excess-deaths-so-far-during-covid-19-pandemic/?fbclid=IwAR1IQOBAbTO7D5A9hOgaMAH5BzDg9Z-9r7GKyDasJuk8i98JLXQBFL-CQ_s

*****************
To add: BC started to lock down retirement homes back in February when concerns surfaced in retirement homes in Washing State. BC has been locked down less than other Provinces. Maybe they got to it early. In BC kids were on spring break for the last two weeks of March so were already home in advance of the lock down came in April.

We should be turning our attention away from the virus to some degree and observe what is happening out there. The US-China-Australia blame, trade, arms… Cdn Helicopter down.

Both Trump and Biden are running tough on China campaigns, Trump may just exceed expectations and push to hard. Muscle flexing time. Till we find an external threat to earth we will war among ourselves. Or evolution may take great strides in the next couple of years/decades. But now we have tactical nukes on the battle field. How does that play out?

There’s a netflix movie on the behind the scenes build up to the second world war. The depression hit the Allies harder than Germany who was on the road to a comeback after WW1. Obvious in hind site, I know…but look around us. Can we safely say that WW2 was the last world war, less we forget. I may just have to stop reading the news. North Korea and South Korea exchanged bullets in the last few days.

#159 Flop... on 05.04.20 at 10:26 pm

Mr Rowlandson, below is the post from a few days ago I was referring to.

I have tried to help you in the past and you just go silent and then come back on talking about living in your car.

Mr Taylor, maybe you can help this supposedly struggling fellow out with a contact via Garth?

Mr Rowlandson, speak up.

Do you need some help, or not…

M45BC

#106 Mark Taylor on 04.30.20 at 7:41 pm

“Anyway, as a side bar, I have a client that is a Soffit/Fascia/Eavestrough/Siding Contractor(Barrie area). He employs about 12 guys & worried in March…laid most of them off to take advantage of Justin $$$$. He now has work booked to end of June, but cannot get some of his guys to come back. Don’t want to give up the free $3000/month. Pretty sure this is going to be the Justin virus…worse than Corona.”

#160 Barb on 05.04.20 at 10:31 pm

“But governments have been directly responsible for ordering many businesses shut.”

—————————————

Exactly! I own a little par 3 recreational facility and the local health guy phoned me to say it could not open. Then 5 weeks later, golf courses are among the first to open again as distancing is easy to control with wider tee times.

Government was directly responsible for my business being shuttered for the entire month of April.

Happy there was pent-up demand, as the facility is now open.

#161 stats freak on 05.04.20 at 10:38 pm

never mind all this depressing stuff…..got any recent pictures of Bandit to share? :D)

#162 Mohammad on 05.04.20 at 10:43 pm

Nothing will change. Once lockdown is lifted things will return as they were the richer will get richer and the opposite for the poor. People who are established will continue with their lives and the people who are not will continue to struggle. It’s unfortunate but it is what it is!

#163 Fake News Is Everywhere on 05.04.20 at 10:45 pm

Turns out now that Wanda the fish treatment lady is under investigation for homicide. Turns out the marriage was on the rocks already, and the deceased friends say he (an engineer with John Deer) would have never done something like knowingly consume fish pond treatment.

And oh boy is Wanda going to have to answer a whole bunch of questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7hw2KBv8sk

All the news if fake, all the time. The are selling adds. It is no more truthful than WWE. It’s a hurricane of f’ing lies, to quote Green Day.

Even Trump’s “disinfectant” gaff, which was a pretty big gaff, did not suggest to “drink bleach”. I use chlorine in my hot tub as a disinfectant and if you ingest a little of that or say some pool water at the Y guess what? You’ll be fine. But that is not the same thing as “drinking bleach” even though the active ingredient is the same. Dilution matters. Even your tap water has chlorine in it, to kill all the bugs, but it is even more dilute than the hot tub water. It is not the same as “drinking bleach” even though again all the active ingredients are the same.

My guess is had Wanda treated the koi pond as per the instructions and then served her husband up a glass of pond water he would have been as alive and well as the fishies. Dilution matters. Dosage matters. Following the instructions matters.

#164 Nonplused on 05.04.20 at 10:56 pm

#133 Faron

Did you watch the new Micheal Moore film?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE

It’s long and a slug to get through parts of it but I think he has got the main premise right: Wind, solar, and biomass are a false hope and have turned into a boondoggle.

#165 NFN_NLN on 05.04.20 at 10:58 pm

#151 Dolce Vita on 05.04.20 at 9:53 pm

As long as it wasn’t them and in the ultimate arrogance they would not have died ’cause they’re Superman and love the current odds of death, of course those are the odds when under lockdown…the other odds we will never know.

Setting the bar a little low? I didn’t know being under 80 years old and not having diabetes makes you super man.

I can see where the attitude comes from Dolt-a-Vita:

“The looming storm is all down to Italy’s mounting debt levels. In 2018 the country’s ratio of debt-to-GDP was 132.2% and is expected to rise to 135% by 2020 based on forecasts from multinational agencies such as the International Monetary Fund.

“[…] the last time Italy’s debt ratio was as high as it is today was in the 1940s when the government was in default on its external debt,” states a recent report from London-based financial research firm Capital Economics. The country also defaulted after WWI.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2019/06/20/doomed-how-theres-no-way-out-of-the-debt-crisis-for-italy/#56bcb68768bb

Disgusting man-children that steal money and default for generations.

#166 Sail Away on 05.04.20 at 11:37 pm

#142 DON on 05.04.20 at 9:22 pm

Also with more people working from home, less car needs, less take out food needs…

—————-

Maybe even fewer

#167 Toni on 05.04.20 at 11:42 pm

#20 Jake on 05.04.20 at 4:45 pm
“Defined-benefit pensions will have to be reviewed.”
Aren’t these pension agreements iron-clad and untouchable?
—-
Among changes the Treasury Board have enacted in the recent past: benefits payable to contributors, contribution rates, change in minimum service completion.

#168 Alberta Trapper on 05.04.20 at 11:54 pm

Canadian Peso: with all this bailout money where will we be, initially I thought .61 now .56 seems possible, so I bought BMO, And a couple of ETFs in US Dollars last month.
Currencies are all being devalued, however 80% of our trade is with the US, so we really gelt hammered, which will really affect our cost of living, no one seems to be aware of this, unless you cross the border.

#169 Faron on 05.04.20 at 11:55 pm

#96 Flop… on 05.04.20 at 7:22 pm

And then Faron turned up.

Glad to be the liberal sand in your conservative bearing grease. Keep on rolling…

#170 cl on 05.05.20 at 12:09 am

I think life will go back to normal sooner that latter.

– Been working from my basement, I enjoy thinking my kids will go back to school next Monday (in Quebec City). Seem to me a lot of parents saw Yes when school asked if they agreed to send their kids.
– I believe my wife will want to go back to her office next week too, to be able to focus on her job.
– I neighbor just bought a new house. Too many kids in a small house during a time like this one help. I saw a lot of SOLD sign. I believe walking and lot a time help.

So when people see life most go on, they will go back to normal…

#171 DON on 05.05.20 at 12:24 am

#26 Deplorable Dude on 05.04.20 at 4:59 pm

#11 Somethings up…” SO WHAT WERE GOVERNMENTS SUPPOSE TO DO??”

This…..apply a balanced solution, instead of a boot on neck of the 99.8%.

Sweden’s approach is working..

https://t.co/9bpNWWu1Ii
**************************
A little behind in the news, just read a bloomberg article saying the opposite. Britain tried and then proceeded to a lock down. Still not sure what to think at this point in time.

#172 DON on 05.05.20 at 12:31 am

#152 Drill Baby Drill on 05.04.20 at 9:55 pm

#21 JSS
“So if house prices fall, will the HELOC’s registered against them also fall in proportion?”
WTF?? Are you kidding? No you pay the original contracted dollar amount.
************

Agreed, but it was an honest question.

Hopefully most home owners know the correct answer to that question. Right>

#173 Leo on 05.05.20 at 12:32 am

With all this crazy massive amount of borrowing going on by governments around the world why aren’t bond prices going up? shouldn’t lenders be making a lack of money in this process?

#174 Sydneysider on 05.05.20 at 12:34 am

#99 Deplorable Dude

BC has revised the number of March 2020 deaths to 3567. This compares to 3551 for March 2019. Since 2012, the trend has been for March deaths to increase by ca. 50 each year, so this year can be considered normal.

Visual examination of bar charts leads to misleading conclusions. A quantitative regression approach shows that BC has reported 33-34 cases per day since April 1. There is no indication that this will change even if we stay confined for 10 more years, but it will probably increase if we are let out.

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/life-events/statistics-reports/deaths

#175 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 12:50 am

@#130 Flop
“I just need permission to cross the border, or I can just walk across with my family and no documents and a suitcase, like I see on tele all the time…”

++++

I think you’re confusing the people crossing the border with the Trump refugees fleeing north in taxi’s…….or temporary farm workers…..and CERB also has them handled…..

T2 at his finest to create a bankrupt, Bolivarian , “utopia” …
Viva Venezuela!

#176 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 12:58 am

@#145 Brain Teaser
“NY Times it is never accurate and quite often a blatant lie-that is why it is called the Toilet Paper of Record.”

++++

Hmmm
I guess thats why the New York Times has won more Pulitzer Prizes ( 130 at the latest count…if you can count) for their news reporting than any other News paper…..because they’re a fish wrapping Tabloid…..?

Let me guess, you heard it on the internet……or better yet….. from a Pro Trump Russian website

My God.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/business/media/new-york-times-pulitzer-prizes.html

#177 Deplorable Dude on 05.05.20 at 12:59 am

#149 Faron…” I’m pretty sure they report the back projected date of infection when they report “episode date”.

Nope. BC apparently has 3 different reporting systems operating; When BC Health reports it, when it gets reported to Health Canada, and the last most useful is symptoms onset date, which is the graph I was referring to. Those are actual reported dates, no lag.

#178 Sparrow on 05.05.20 at 1:18 am

#81 Fishman

Millenial Realist, Who boomer paleos conservatives are you listening to? That wanna open up. The Trumpster? I listen to the Trumpster because I’m a fanboy. For entertainment, not financial decisions.
Every day this system is locked down,every day we go deeper into debt, every day “lil potato” stuffs free money into your pockets is an up day for me. Its all relative.Things don’t go up in deflation times. Smart boomers got TD’s, gold, cash & no debt. These things stay the same while everything else gets less. And there’s no taxes. Hard too get taxes with no gains. You Millenials are going to climb out of this hole with no cash, no job & debt. Only anchor ever increasing wealthier boomers carry is a millennial kid or two e-mailing tasty west van view semi-waterfront, Arthur Ericsson type builds for 1.5 million. Of course if she shuts down too long & can’t get started things can get real mean. Then the worm turns & its your time to rock & roll. Us boomers will be hiding.

—————-
Don’t call a plumber….fishman drained it!
Man, I love this blog!
Thanks Garth!
(And fishman)

#179 tim123 on 05.05.20 at 1:23 am

I definately think a real estate crash is coming and I think it essentially comes down to the question of what the unemployment rate is. I can’t see industries like airlines, hotels, restaurants, tourism, retail, some manufacturing, some service industries, casinos, business travel are not coming back to full 2019 levels until a coronavirus vaccine is found in 12 months to 18 months at the earliest. This means that the number of people without a salary will not be able to pay for their inflated mortgages which will force people to sell their houses or at least not buy new houses. Add in the fact that amateur landlords with renters who do not pay their rent and airBnB landlords will probably want to sell. This is going to be ugly and for the real estate industry and banking industry to pretend that double digit unemployment rates are not going to affect the real estate market are just being disingenuous.

#180 drydock on 05.05.20 at 1:35 am

#4 Millennial Realist on 05.04.20 at 4:18 pm

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Ok Karen.

#181 Shannon Tier on 05.05.20 at 1:46 am

DELETED

#182 WAKEUP on 05.05.20 at 1:51 am

#131 MF
Logic not fear mongering, I hope I’m wrong.
Time will tell.

#183 Lorne on 05.05.20 at 1:54 am

#139 Trojan House on 05.04.20 at 9:08 pm
Take a second to think of your “new normal” (I hate this propaganda phrase). What does it mean or look like to you? For example, for me:

My daughter plays competitive minor hockey. She was just recruited to play at a university in the US. However, how can minor hockey start up again if there are physical distancing rules still in place? You can’t have crowded arena waiting areas. Imagine multi-rink complexes. There are sometimes hundreds of people there. And forget about minor hockey tournaments. I feel bad for my daughter as she may not be able to play again anytime soon. Tryouts for next season have been cancelled and there is no timeline for its return.

Speaking of hockey, how will it be possible for the NHL to return for the same reasons as above. They won’t allow 18,000 people in one place. Sure, they can play in empty arenas but most teams make money from ticket/gate revenue and concessions. Sure they can televise them but I can see where instead of being broadcast for free, it will be by pay-per-view for every game. I could not afford this at all. I only attend one or two games per year because it costs so much.

Anyway, those are a couple of my thoughts. What are yours?
………
All players will be required to wear FULL plastic face shields.

#184 Robert Ash on 05.05.20 at 2:24 am

I am very concerned for Small businesses and those folks, that took Mortgages, from the RE shadow banking firms.. The Capital market for the small business owner, of a Trucking company, small Construction firm, Self Branded convenience store, Restauranteur… etc… These SB’s often source capital via the small consolidators.. Like the Household Finance..of years past… . this is where the average family business will feel the first wave of pain, that is on hold for just now… Hopefully the Virus, takes a holiday, as Higher Temps, Humidity and UV light naturally reduce the viral impact… Let’s try to help the Local Laundry Mat, or Shoe Repair, Mechanic… Why not have your home painted if you can afford, it… you are spending more time there, likely… And don’t forget our Fur Friends… The SPCA’s will need some attention.. We can get out of the Judgement chair, and use some common sense, to help each other… All Goverments, will not be the sole source of a remedy… it is up to us, as Canadians, to help each other… That is a guaranteed return!

#185 Wrk.dover on 05.05.20 at 5:56 am

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/china-trump-coronavirus-lab-china-wuhan-pomeo-conspiracy-boris-johnson-a9498226.html

#186 Tony on 05.05.20 at 7:22 am

Israel institute isolates COVID-19 antibody

Israel institute isolates COVID-19 antibody; Claims it a ‘Significant breakthrough’

Israel has isolated a key coronavirus antibody at its main biological research laboratory, the Israeli defense minister said on Monday, calling the step a “significant breakthrough”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qlsa9PS97yQ

#187 Steven Rowlandson on 05.05.20 at 7:33 am

Well Flop I would need a new home as a signing bonus for a start as Canadian employers either cannot or will not pay enough for me to buy a place to live on my own.
Otherwise I would need a triple digit wage rate with regular raises and full employment.
I would need Justin Trudeau’s job and full
authority to do as I see fit for as long as it takes.
At nearly age 60 it is an all or nothing deal and right now the correct conclusion is that Canada and the rest of the world has nothing to offer but BS and plenty of it.
The last 42 years has proven it to me.

#188 under the radar on 05.05.20 at 7:51 am

From the CDC Website. Completely forgotten . Is Covid 19 a game changer, sure for a while . People will fly and cruise again.

“In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States. “

#189 maxx on 05.05.20 at 7:56 am

AC? Judging from the comments section of countless articles written about it, much of the traveling public would agree that it can bathe in the “rouge” until unicorn flatulence wafts into the ether.

#190 Millennial Realist on 05.05.20 at 8:07 am

“The price of reopening the economy: tens of thousands of American lives”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-economy-models/index.html

This makes sense?

We have to deal with the virus properly. Then, IMMEDIATELY, we must seize the moment to de-carbonize the economic status quo and mitigate climate change on a global emergency basis.

Everything must be changed.

Boomers, most of you, sadly, please just get out of the way, and take your ideas with you. Your ideologies are so ancient and irrelevant for now and the future.

#191 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 8:25 am

@#191 Millennial Surrealist
“We have to deal with the virus properly. Then, IMMEDIATELY, we must seize the moment to de-carbonize the economic status quo and mitigate climate change on a global emergency basis.”

++++

“Immediately decarbonize the economic status quo”.

Spoke like a true brat with delusional demands of immediate gratification.
Ironically .
We will NOT achieve all of this because….”the budget will balance itself” Trudeau…. is currently BURNING the economy down around us….
Your hero is a zero.
Simplistic climate change economic voodoo
Dont forget to close your eyes, click your heels twice and hold your breath until you get what you want……

#192 BrianT on 05.05.20 at 8:34 am

#191Millenial-you forgot to mention the most important issue of our time (according to esteemed Joe Biden)-Transgender Equity. So I can’t grade you an A on this one.

#193 Angela on 05.05.20 at 8:38 am

Re #62
I worked in bankruptcy on the way up in my accounting firm, if you have questions shoot! First thing to know is you have to be out of school 7 years to discharge student debt in Canada through bankruptcy. Not gonna work for those recent grads.

#194 Dharma Bum on 05.05.20 at 8:39 am

#95 PBrasseur

Don’t like the 70 cent CAD? Wait till it becomes 60…
——————————————————————–

Ahhhhhh….just like in those heady good old days of the late nineties, when my revenue was in $USD. I sure miss that 50% plus kicker!

#195 TurnerNation on 05.05.20 at 8:51 am

The war is on small business (our independence and right to assemble, and earn money by self) and of course on travel. Airlines and car rentals being decimated.
It was in our faces from day one, #stayhome right?
The Globalists have a plan and it’s rolling out and fast.
All of our leaders are on board, hence the co-ordinated global action in this regard.
….
“The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that independent lenders who provide asset-backed credit to small and medium-sized businesses face widespread failure in the coming months as financing markets seize up and borrowers struggle to pay their loans. The Globe’s Mark Rendell writes that small asset-backed finance companies, which originate loans and package them together for sale to banks and insurance companies, are being squeezed by a business model that has little capacity to absorb a tidal wave of loan payment deferrals or defaults. Should these lenders begin to fail, small and medium-sized enterprises, from trucking companies to dentistry practices, could lose a crucial source of financing. Small loan and lease companies typically finance new loans by selling old loans or by issuing commercial paper. “Originators don’t have any cash flow for themselves unless they’re originating, because they’ve pledged it all to the funders,” said Moe Danis, an industry veteran who ran asset-backed securitization programs for Sun Life Financial and Canadian Western Bank, among others. “So if they can’t cover their overhead through new originations, they’re stuck,” he said.
© 2020 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#196 TurnerNation on 05.05.20 at 9:02 am

Learn how the game is played boys. Your tax dollars at work.
Last year Air Canada buys AirTransat.
And Onex bought Westjet airlines. Boom times.

This year the Feds are bailing out both using our tax dollars/wage subsidies.

The CEO of Onex this is his wife Heather…Indigo owner. The elites taking care of each other using our money:

Six Canadians invited to secretive Bilderberg conference | The …www.thestar.com › business › 2013/06/05 › six_canadians_invited_to…
Jun 5, 2013 – Canadians invited to secretive Bilderberg conference include Loblaw’s Galen Weston, Indigo’s Heather Reisman, TD’s Ed Clark.

#197 Al on 05.05.20 at 9:30 am

Excellent investigative reporting by the Star that confirms that the large number of deaths in long term care homes could have been prevented were it not for Premier Ford’s nickel and dime cutbacks on government spending: https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2020/05/05/key-moments-in-ontarios-slow-response-to-the-covid-19-outbreak-in-nursing-homes.html

#198 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 9:36 am

Hmmmm
If Vancouver Realtors are admitting April RE sales down 67% ( the worst numbers since 1982……)

What are the actual numbers?

https://vancouversun.com/news/metro-vancouver-home-sales-hit-38-year-low-in-april/wcm/93866031-14fe-4320-8aef-1b9967c162a9/

#199 Hammond Armor on 05.05.20 at 9:36 am

Swedes frog march into Corona Valhalla. Liberals there are so braindead they’d rather die than admit defeat.

https://www.nationthailand.com/opinion/30387219?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=internal_referral

Thousands die riding a hockey stick curve designed by the false narrative of the WHO narrative. Trudeau- Butts goose stepping is all the rage.

#200 Fused on 05.05.20 at 9:48 am

That did not take long

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/carnival-cruise-line-plans-to-sail-again-starting-in-august-1.4924079?cache=

Like I posted before, buying up these stocks, along with airline stocks will pay off.

#201 BrianT on 05.05.20 at 9:50 am

#197Turner-that whole Bilderberg thing is something that a lot of younger people are unaware of-for decades the Bilderberg meeting took place (big money meeting with government reps in secret) and all the MSM claimed it wasn’t happening-that anyone who said it was happening was a Conspiracy Theorist-now of course the same MSM openly admits it without any sort of apology for blatantly lying to their readers all those years.

#202 Fused on 05.05.20 at 10:03 am

Forgot to add April 02, the stock was trading at $7.97 now trading at $14.24.
How many of the blog dogs bought in, there is a lot of easy money to be made in this market lately.
Imagine buying the cheap calls, cashing out now unreal profits, yet people huddle in cash, fortune favors the bold.
Buy low sell high, not hard to do but when it looks like the world is going down in flames, you can not beat these deals.
Eagerly awaiting the next Pearl Clutching/MSM induced terror event with cash in hand.

#203 Faron on 05.05.20 at 10:14 am

165 Nonplused on 05.04.20 at 10:56 pm

#133 Faron

Did you watch the new Micheal Moore film?

Yeah, I did. I blathered on about it here:

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/05/03/the-unlock/#comment-709308

I appreciated the points about general overpopulation and resource destruction and/or awareness of how our activities impact regions we don’t often think about.

I’m not surprised there is corruption. Some of these industries are growing and becoming profitable, so of course dirty money is going to come in. Take that as a hint for future investment. These industries WILL explode. Tesla is a fetish, but it also indicates that these things are viable.

Al gore always seemed creepy to me. But, it doesn’t mean his movie was incorrect.

I agree that biomass burning is not good. I got useful information from the film that I confirmed with other resources.

I liked that they philosophically linked people’s blind leap into green “things” as arising from deeply entrenched fear. I have family friends (boomers) who spent millions building a “green” house with money they did not have. This is in Oregon where a bungalow can be had for <$200k. They failed to realize that if they just build a smaller stick-built house closer to the city their impact would have been less and they would have saved money. There is plenty of stupidity and blind faith on the left.

I was disappointed they didn't talk about nuclear. It's a clear winner in my book. You think people have irrational fear of the coronavirus? Start talking to them about nuclear energy production and they will really start wringing their hands.

The film was way outdated when it came to solar and wind. Those sources repay their carbon deficit very early in their lifetimes. Still not sure how steel will be smelted without coal in the future, but otherwise the energy will come off the grid which will eventually be mostly wind, nuke, hydro and solar.

Hydro is interesting though because a MASSIVE amount of CO2 is released to produce the cement. But I think that the 50+year lifetime of a dam still overpays that carbon cost relative to coal/gas/oil.

#204 Phylis on 05.05.20 at 10:14 am

#165 Nonplused on 05.04.20 at 10:56 pm Reminds me of driving through southern ontario… flat and boring with planned curves in the highway to keep you awake. No there are hundreds if not thousands of wind machines that went up for Mcginty and wyndy. Pretty to watch them turn. Interesting to see the synchronization of the red lights slowly flash at dusk in unison across the horizon. The end of life replacement/repair/removal bill will be that of cleaning up wells in Alberta. Same as always, the people responsible for putting them up will not be around.

#205 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 10:17 am

@#200 Hammond Armour

So….. if I read the article correctly.

Sweden isolated the elderly and not much else and has the same death rate as everyone else that did isolate everything?

So they achieved the same results without crushing their economy?

Gee who woulda thunk it.

There’s gonna be some very long and hard questions for Trudeau when this is over.
Mr Minority Govt that ran roughshod over the entire political process.

Not to mention dumping a new, revised, lengthy, detailed, 1500 firearms long Gun Control Legislation onto the still grieving populace ? One week after the Nova Scotia murders! One week?
When was the last time the govt did ANYTHING that detailed, that quickly?

The cynics among us might suggest the Liberals waited for just such a slaughter to dust off their waiting legislation because “it played well to the cameras”?
Absolute craven politics. Absolutely Disgusting.
But I digress.

Back to the economic RUIN of our country for years to come…
From unemployed taxpayers hammered with bills, bills, bills and taxes , taxes, taxes…..
All who are voters …who will not forget….. come election day.

#206 Stone on 05.05.20 at 10:24 am

#162 stats freak on 05.04.20 at 10:38 pm
never mind all this depressing stuff…..got any recent pictures of Bandit to share? :D)

———

If Garth is complaining he’s looking like Cousin It, Bandit’s probably looking the same. I think you’ll be waiting until they get to see the friseur. Lol

#207 Faron on 05.05.20 at 10:26 am

199 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 9:36 am

Victoria just released their report.

http://www.vreb.org/pdf/VREBNewsReleaseFull.pdf

Even when the numbers are in plain sight, they pick the brightest light among them. In the write-up they stress that the “benchmark” price went up YoY and Mar to Apr. However, when you look at the actual average or median selling prices, there were drops in local detached homes and condos. So people who buy are spending less on homes. I’m sure the benchmark price will drop next. Most importantly the sales:listings ratio fell to ~15%’

The value of single-family homes in Victoria plunged 11% last month. – Garth

#208 YVR Expat on 05.05.20 at 10:35 am

#93 conan on 05.04.20 at 7:15 pm
#64 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 5:56 pm

Humor me for a minute because I have never been able to figure it out.

Why is it Justin’s fault when Alberta has had 40 years of Conservative government and 10 years, when they were running the entire she-bang?
*****************

The Federal government has let down Canada’s oil industry and Alberta. The politicization of pipelines has hurt Canada’s reputation worldwide, this will impact everything from future capital investment and future prosperity. This hurts everyone in the country.

#209 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 10:40 am

@#208 Faron
“I’m sure the benchmark price will drop next. Most importantly the sales:listings ratio fell to ~15%

++++

Yup.

First the sales tank….

Then the prices follow as people realize ….”unless I drop my price”…..
Hopefully May will be the beginning of a race to the door as sellers realize they have to drop their price …quickly and sharply, to be noticed…

Will panic set in by June ?
July a full real estate rout?

#210 YouKnowWho on 05.05.20 at 10:43 am

Thank you airlines!

…for continuing to fly the Chinese Virus around the world and around countries.

We appreciate it!

https://globalnews.ca/news/6904184/coronavirus-passenger-on-toronto-moncton-westjet-flight-tests-positive/

Please gallery, do feel free to tell me how it’s all safe now, how there aren’t many passengers. Yeah yeah yeah.

Kid plays in an empty lot by himself, gets $880 ticket.
Airlines fly Chinese Virus around world – GOOD JOB!

#211 Sam Beck on 05.05.20 at 10:47 am

What did I tell you? A few weeks ago I wrote here that these puffed up civil servant corona nazis would create an environment of murder, and here you are. People can only be pushed So far. Same goes for politicians.

https://torontosun.com/news/world/michigan-store-security-guard-murdered-over-mask-enforcement-cops

I forecast a lot more of the same, as have several national citizen journalists in Canadian media.

#212 Lambchop @ Flop on 05.05.20 at 10:47 am

#188 Steven Rowlandson on 05.05.20 at 7:33 am
Well Flop I would need a new home as a signing bonus for a start as Canadian employers either cannot or will not pay enough for me to buy a place to live on my own.
Otherwise I would need a triple digit wage rate with regular raises and full employment.
I would need Justin Trudeau’s job and full
authority to do as I see fit for as long as it takes.
At nearly age 60 it is an all or nothing deal and right now the correct conclusion is that Canada and the rest of the world has nothing to offer but BS and plenty of it.
The last 42 years has proven it to me.
________________

I have come to realize, through trying to help people in this manner, that the people who are deserving and appreciative of assistance are usually not the ones that need it most because they make it happen for themselves.
This response to your legitimate offer of help speaks volumes about the intended recipient’s nature and sense of entitlement, jealousy and lack of work ethic. Unfortunately, no amount of help will do any long-term good for people with this attitude.

Success is a mindset, and you either have it or you don’t.

#213 not 1st on 05.05.20 at 10:55 am

Faron, now you know that green energy is a scam. Its impossible to defend it in any way.

Wait until you find out climate change is one too.

#214 not 1st on 05.05.20 at 11:11 am

Turns out Canadians are paying the rent, just not with money.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/sex-for-rent-offers-quietly-flourishing-in-nl-—-and-this-tenant-says-she-dropped-everything-to-escape-it/ar-BB13BZS2?ocid=spartanntp

#215 Toronto_CA on 05.05.20 at 11:12 am

@#200 Hammond Armour

So….. if I read the article correctly.

Sweden isolated the elderly and not much else and has the same death rate as everyone else that did isolate everything?

So they achieved the same results without crushing their economy?

____

Or without the greatest infringement on civil liberties in our lifetimes. I really think basic human rights like freedom of assembly being taken away needs to be urgently taken into consideration the longer these lockdowns go on.

Guidance to social distance? Absolutely. Use common sense. Making laws up and arresting people?

Unconstitutional. And very problematic. Here’s the former Supreme Court justice with a great opinion piece from a few days ago:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8281007/Former-Supreme-Court-judge-LORD-SUMPTION-gives-withering-critique-Governments-lockdown.html

“… there are some things that may work and that a totalitarian state like China can do. But a country like Sweden with its long liberal tradition cannot do them unless it wants to become like China.

We, too, have to ask ourselves what kind of relationship we want with the State. Do we really want to be the kind of society where basic freedoms are conditional on the decisions of politicians in thrall to scientists and statisticians? Where human beings are just tools of public policy?”

#216 joblo on 05.05.20 at 11:15 am

#169 Alberta Trapper on 05.04.20 at 11:54 pm
“Canadian peso”?

Kanadian yuan

#217 Attrition on 05.05.20 at 11:21 am

#210 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 10:40 am
@#208 Faron
“I’m sure the benchmark price will drop next. Most importantly the sales:listings ratio fell to ~15%

++++

Yup.

First the sales tank….

Then the prices follow as people realize ….”unless I drop my price”…..
Hopefully May will be the beginning of a race to the door as sellers realize they have to drop their price …quickly and sharply, to be noticed…

Will panic set in by June ?
July a full real estate rout?

Wishful thinking. Not gonna happen, at least not for long.

There is still too much wealth in this country. The minute a significant chunk is shaved off prices, people will flock in to buy.

Lack of physical open houses only means the RE cartel will have to modernize and move towards one click online RE purchases. It’s already happening.

House prices will do pretty much what the stock market did–wobble, then start to recover.

There can’t really be any other outcome. And just wait for the next wave of Hong Kong immigrants–or did you forget about that?

Prices are down 10-12% over one month in major markets and there is no ‘flocking to buy.’ – Garth

#218 Lahdeedah on 05.05.20 at 11:21 am

No, Sweden’s approach of laissez faire is not working, fyi, to all who posted it was. Sweden has a 12.29% mortality rate.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A friendly reminder that the government’s actions that affect the small businesses shutting down, as stated, were to save the health care system from completely imploding.

You already see stories of doctors committing suicide (USA), jumping out of windows (Russia). Imagine if we didn’t try to ‘flatten the curve’ – our hospitals and health care system would be decimated. We’d lose health care workers. Do you want any old schmo off the street providing you with care? Probably not. The supply of health care workers is not infinite, nor are hospital resources.

By overwhelming the health care system, you would also put other more urgent health cases at risk. Those people would become casualties because of the resulting overwhelm.

And then, people would be rioting not because they are forced to stay at home, but because the government wasn’t doing enough to protect them and their hospitals.

You can’t envy the position that the government is in as a result of this. They have to keep a very fine balance. And they can’t predict the future. They can only rely on historical data.

And as always, think of our health care workers, as they are the ones on the front lines, working along with the government regulations, to manage this.

Small business are screwed because they rely on close contact with customers. And there just isn’t a realistic way around that to prevent spread, other than social distancing. Do you really want to get a massage right now, a dental cleaning, a hair cut with people breathing into your face? Have a pint in a restaurant when buddy over there is coughing? Doubt it.

#219 WAKEUP on 05.05.20 at 11:27 am

#131 MF

Also in response to your fear mongering comment.

The Virus predominantly targets seniors and Canada currently has over 6.5 million seniors and a unknown amount of asymptotic carriers out in the public.

As I’m sure you know asymptotic means they have the Virus but are showing no signs of illness.
They are contagious for up to 3 weeks or longer.

That in my books is a recipe for disaster and I’m not trying to scare people I’m trying to inform them.

#220 Faron on 05.05.20 at 11:38 am

210 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 10:40 am

Will panic set in by June ?
July a full real estate rout?

——————————————

Yeah. I think right now, as Garth mentioned, there are enough people covering their payments with a HELOC thinking “I got this”. Or their payments are in forebearance. But it won’t be long before they see how over leveraged and under water they are.

I also don’t think the magnitude of this crapstorm has quite sunk in for folks yet.

I don’t want to say “I hope so” because of the even-greater economic badness that will come on the heels of a RE crash. But, I’ll be in the market in the fall and wont mind a low interest mortgage at a huge discount relative to now.

Garth: if I may ask a question. When do the banks start to worry about the uninsured mortgages backed by the Bank of Mom?

#221 BrianT on 05.05.20 at 11:46 am

#177Crowded-yeah the stupid sheep love these awards-the Pulitzer is the Oscar of reporting-these ridiculous awards are great-they tell the stupid sheep what is good and what is bad-what is important and what is to be ignored.

#222 Wrk.dover on 05.05.20 at 11:53 am

#160 Flop… on 05.04.20 at 10:26 pm
Mr Rowlandson, below is the post from a few days ago I was referring to.

I have tried to help you in the past and you just go silent and then come back on talking about living in your car.

Mr Taylor, maybe you can help this supposedly struggling fellow out with a contact via Garth?

Mr Rowlandson, speak up.

Do you need some help, or not…

M45BC

#106 Mark Taylor on 04.30.20 at 7:41 pm

“Anyway, as a side bar, I have a client that is a Soffit/Fascia/Eavestrough/Siding Contractor(Barrie area). He employs about 12 guys & worried in March…laid most of them off to take advantage of Justin $$$$. He now has work booked to end of June, but cannot get some of his guys to come back. Don’t want to give up the free $3000/month. Pretty sure this is going to be the Justin virus…worse than Corona.”

—————————-

So your strategy is to tell a 60 year old to swap his knees with day in day out ladder work for a meal ticket!

This is after you swapped out your knees at a younger age too, correct?

#223 CanadIain on 05.05.20 at 11:56 am

A question Garth: If governments can simply print endless amounts of money, why does it need to tax us dolts?

Money cannot just be ‘printed’. It must be ‘issued’ which increases the money supply. The more there is, the less each dollar is worth. If this money is not contained and ascribed a value (interest) then inflation ensues and prices jump significantly – making the issuing of more money necessary. That’s how currencies and economies are destroyed when your dollar is not the global reserve currency. – Garth

#224 doug t on 05.05.20 at 11:58 am

#191 Millennial Surrealist

lol thanks for the chuckle

#225 Moller on 05.05.20 at 12:06 pm

#73 Attrition on 05.04.20 at 6:25 pm
You are speaking from hindsight. Those numbers change every second.

If no measures were taken to stop the spread, the chances of the virus spreading to someone with a compromised immune system would increase, which would lead to a higher death rate.

Has that sunk in?

As for your apple farmer analogy. Are the “diseased” apples infectious? The virus has an approx. R0 = 2.5, which means one “diseased” apple will infect at least 2.5 other apples. The apple farmers would probably destroy their crops or sell the farm knowing this.

#226 Toronto_CA on 05.05.20 at 12:11 pm

#219 Lahdeedah on 05.05.20 at 11:21 am
No, Sweden’s approach of laissez faire is not working, fyi, to all who posted it was. Sweden has a 12.29% mortality rate.

_______

I hate to call people stupid, but you deserve it. The mortality rate you posted is invalidated in that you have no idea how many people have actually been infected with the virus. Nor, factually, do you know if the death counts include people who died with Corona rather than from it. Anyone stating a mortality rate without a qualifier is a complete idiot and lacking basic intelligence about numerology.

Sorry to be so blunt, but I’m sick of it. Stop being such a doomsayer. Plenty of studies saying the number of actual cases is a huge multiple of the confirmed cases, for the obvious reason that testing is very low and started late. 50-85x is the number the Stanford study put on it; may be wrong but history can judge.

Second, to your “Sweden failed” line, here’s an article stating that Sweden got R below 1.0 without overwhelming the health care system. That was the goal, so I guess Sweden didn’t fail by their own measure of success.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sweden-tames-its-r-number-without-lockdown

Let history do the judging, and people like you at least try to qualify your idiotic assumptions before labeling them as facts.

#227 Dr V on 05.05.20 at 12:17 pm

204 Faron – a thoughtful comment

213 Lambchop – agreed

#228 Sail away on 05.05.20 at 12:21 pm

Re: plastic in ocean

Remember there was all the sensationalist news about the “Great Pacific Garbage Patch”? Apparently solid floating plastic for 700 miles. Conveniently located outside of any shipping lanes.

Then a lot of sailboats went through and said, ‘hmmm… no floating plastic to be seen. Weird.’

Then the story changed to ‘submerged microplastics’. Now, it’s changed again to ‘ocean seafloor plastics’. Oh, ok then. Guess we won’t be confirming that.

Here’s the thing: The world’s oceans are almost unimaginably large. Enormously larger than all the land together. Ponder that.

#229 Stone on 05.05.20 at 12:26 pm

#218 Attrition on 05.05.20 at 11:21 am
#210 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 10:40 am
@#208 Faron
“I’m sure the benchmark price will drop next. Most importantly the sales:listings ratio fell to ~15%

++++

Yup.

First the sales tank….

Then the prices follow as people realize ….”unless I drop my price”…..
Hopefully May will be the beginning of a race to the door as sellers realize they have to drop their price …quickly and sharply, to be noticed…

Will panic set in by June ?
July a full real estate rout?

Wishful thinking. Not gonna happen, at least not for long.

There is still too much wealth in this country. The minute a significant chunk is shaved off prices, people will flock in to buy.

Lack of physical open houses only means the RE cartel will have to modernize and move towards one click online RE purchases. It’s already happening.

House prices will do pretty much what the stock market did–wobble, then start to recover.

There can’t really be any other outcome. And just wait for the next wave of Hong Kong immigrants–or did you forget about that?

Prices are down 10-12% over one month in major markets and there is no ‘flocking to buy.’ – Garth

———

Are those “immigrants” from Hong Kong going to be stupid enough to come to a country with high unemployment, taxes that are likely going uppa, uppa, uppa, and throw money into residential real estate that is already over-inflated and now going into an unknown downward spiral?

If I was one of them, that wouldn’t be my first choice. Or my second. Or third.

#230 BrianT on 05.05.20 at 12:40 pm

The bottom line is that this virus overwhelmingly kills old sick people-and not even that subgroup-overwhelmingly the virus kills old sick people who live in large cities-NYC a great example in the USA-any old sick person living in NYC was hundreds of times more likely to be killed by this virus than an old sick person living in say Arkansas or Hawaii. An old sick person living in Toronto is statistically 16.3 times more likely to die from this virus than an old sick perosn living in Oakville. That is a gigantic statistical difference. So we decided to destroy the economy and society to hopefully lessen the number of old sick people in large cities dying. Maybe going forward old sick people should reconsider living in large cities.

#231 Sky on 05.05.20 at 12:49 pm

Sweden : Covid-19 tracker

Sjukdomsfall = Cases

Intensivvårdade = Intensive care

Avlidna = Deaths

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

#232 SOS on 05.05.20 at 12:51 pm

The first time I heard the phrase “new normal” was from my doctor after my baby was born. It’s medical jargon. Every time I hear a politician say that I’m reminded of who are running our country.

#233 Don Guillermo on 05.05.20 at 12:51 pm

#133 Faron
Did you watch the new Micheal Moore film?

I was disappointed they didn’t talk about nuclear. It’s a clear winner in my book. You think people have irrational fear of the coronavirus? Start talking to them about nuclear energy production and they will really start wringing their hand

***************************************
I agree that nuclear energy is worth pursuing but it has many problems and limitations. This Forbes article explains how many nuclear projects would be required to accomplish zero emissions in the US alone.

” To reach net-zero by 2050, the US alone would need to deploy one new nuclear power plant worth of carbon-free energy about every 6 days”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050-requires-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-every-day/#2e59437735f7

Convincing the GP to even accept nuclear energy is difficult enough and then throw in the costs and the years it takes for engineering and approvals. I worked on the Darlington Nuclear project in the mid eighties and at the time it was the most expensive project in Canadian history. It was coming in at north of $13 Billion when I left and wasn’t even close to being fully commissioned.

No easy answers.

#234 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 12:59 pm

@#218 Attrition
“Lack of physical open houses only means the RE cartel will have to modernize and move towards one click online RE purchases. It’s already happening.”
++++

Uhhh
Yeah.
Like Zillow in the States?
Or The online service in Nova Scotia?
The ones that publish historic sales, and prices for every house , condo etc?
The onesd the Real Estate cartels have tried repeatedly to sue out of existance?

HOPEFULLY the covid 1984 shake up will be the final nail in the coffin if the monopoly that is the Canadian real estate sham.

But I wont hold my breath ( unless I’m on an elevator)

#235 Attrition on 05.05.20 at 1:06 pm

#226 Moller on 05.05.20 at 12:06 pm

#73 Attrition on 05.04.20 at 6:25 pm
You are speaking from hindsight. Those numbers change every second.

If no measures were taken to stop the spread, the chances of the virus spreading to someone with a compromised immune system would increase, which would lead to a higher death rate.

Has that sunk in?

As for your apple farmer analogy. Are the “diseased” apples infectious? The virus has an approx. R0 = 2.5, which means one “diseased” apple will infect at least 2.5 other apples. The apple farmers would probably destroy their crops or sell the farm knowing this.

Did I suggest taking no action to stop the spread? No, I did not.

Has that sunk in? Good.

Now, you’re correct that the numbers change constantly. The death rate could go either way at anytime.

But that’s not the point.

Nothing you or anyone else has said changes the fact that the Covid-19 death rate is minuscule, the risk of death from infinitesimal and the reactions of our governments draconian, destructive and disproportionate.

The frightened, like you, love this of course.

The freedom loving, like me, despise it.

Fear, control, moral superiority, and sanctioned and legislated risk aversion and social shaming are not mature, measured, reasoned or logical responses to any public health issue.

Let this sink in: your fear doesn’t rule me, just as my courage shouldn’t rule you.

#236 IHCTD9 on 05.05.20 at 1:10 pm

#215 not 1st on 05.05.20 at 11:11 am
Turns out Canadians are paying the rent, just not with money.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/sex-for-rent-offers-quietly-flourishing-in-nl-—-and-this-tenant-says-she-dropped-everything-to-escape-it/ar-BB13BZS2?ocid=spartanntp

A quick google reveals a hooker in Toronto costs 80-300.00 (I’m kind of shocked, 80.00 measly dollars to buy a Woman’s body? I pay a higher aggregate than that – and I’m married…)

Either NL tenants are 11/10, or the rental rates are outstandingly cheap…

#237 WAKEUP on 05.05.20 at 1:20 pm

#231 Brian T

Ever hear of soylent green?
Old guy taking a liberty joke.

From my research, weeks of it, I honestly think that at the end of the day regardless of all the precautions that have been instilled that it will be about herd immunity and the consequences that accompany it.

#238 Attrition on 05.05.20 at 1:21 pm

#230 Stone on 05.05.20 at 12:26 pm

#218 Attrition on 05.05.20 at 11:21 am
#210 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.20 at 10:40 am
@#208 Faron
“I’m sure the benchmark price will drop next. Most importantly the sales:listings ratio fell to ~15%

++++

Yup. First the sales tank….Will panic set in by June ?
July a full real estate rout?Wishful thinking.

++++

Not gonna happen, at least not for long….House prices will do pretty much what the stock market did–wobble, then start to recover.

There can’t really be any other outcome. And just wait for the next wave of Hong Kong immigrants–or did you forget about that?

Prices are down 10-12% over one month in major markets and there is no ‘flocking to buy.’ – Garth

I’d wager this is short term. There is a planet full of people who want to come to Canada. There isn’t a planet full of safe democracies with clean air, decent social safety nets, all the freedoms we take for granted, etc.

The pandemic shock will drive people to houses with yards and gardens–soft prices and low rates will accelerate this. Population growth will do the rest. #CoronaBabyBoom. Of course I could be wrong…

++++


Are those “immigrants” from Hong Kong going to be stupid enough to come to a country with high unemployment, taxes that are likely going uppa, uppa, uppa, and throw money into residential real estate that is already over-inflated and now going into an unknown downward spiral?

I dare say you’re suffering from that most Canadian affliction: disparaging and under valuing the numerous virtues of the country of your birth (or citizenship).

House prices are dirt cheap compared to many global markets. Taxes are nothing here. Corruption almost nonexistent. Banking incredibly stable. Elections a model for the world.

What Canadians consider extreme–taxes, govt waste etc.–isn’t even on the radar of economic immigrants.

They want a safe place to live and invest, and there are few places better than Canada.

As a side note, the government–Trudeau–isn’t the country. We don’t own his shortcomings, though we do deserve them for electing him.

But his impact on the nation? Fleeting at best–just like the virus.

#239 Follow up to your debt issue on 05.05.20 at 1:26 pm

Hi Garth
Thanks for posting and thanks for answering questions in the blog. I would like to follow up on your reply about debt
Money cannot just be ‘printed’. It must be ‘issued’ which increases the money supply. The more there is, the less each dollar is worth. If this money is not contained and ascribed a value (interest) then inflation ensues and prices jump significantly – making the issuing of more money necessary. That’s how currencies and economies are destroyed when your dollar is not the global reserve currency. – Garth
I understand this comment completely and agree
What I don’t understand if the BOC is buying government debt then are just making a pencil entry? Quantify easing
I understanding printing money, I understand government issuing debt to spend
I don’t understand where the BOC gets money to do QE.
Thanks been looking on google but all I could find was a journal entry?
http://behindthenumbers.ca/2020/04/08/canada-joins-the-qe-club-what-is-quantitative-easing-and-what-comes-next/
Have a great day!

#240 IHCTD9 on 05.05.20 at 1:31 pm

Here’s a pretty amazing vid:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG9TMn1FJzc

#241 not 1st on 05.05.20 at 1:42 pm

New pathetic announcements from Trudeau today.

Ag, oil, mining, resource extraction account for almost 25% of our GDP (including transport) and it got less money than foreign students did. Process that in your mind. Canada is an ugly place.

#242 not 1st on 05.05.20 at 1:46 pm

Garth, do you and your partners ever get together for a whiskey and calculate the debt load plus wealth destruction and capital flight that Trudeau has created under his watch?

How on earth can you even consider a bullish scenario for Canada. Its impossible.

The US is mulling an infrastructure program to restart their economy. What single economic initiative has Trudeau pitched. We are so screwed. Get everything you can into USD and the S&P. Forget Canada.

#243 Lahdeedah on 05.05.20 at 1:48 pm

#227 Toronto_CA on 05.05.20 at 12:11 pm

#219 Lahdeedah on 05.05.20 at 11:21 am
No, Sweden’s approach of laissez faire is not working, fyi, to all who posted it was. Sweden has a 12.29% mortality rate.

_______

I hate to call people stupid, but you deserve it. The mortality rate you posted is invalidated in that you have no idea how many people have actually been infected with the virus. Nor, factually, do you know if the death counts include people who died with Corona rather than from it. Anyone stating a mortality rate without a qualifier is a complete idiot and lacking basic intelligence about numerology.

– – – – – – – – –

Hey dummy, check the actual link I posted. Here I’ll post it again, since you can’t read simple data dashboards.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You want a Sweden ratio? Here is your Sweden ratio, under Active Cases:

Sweden
Confirmed: 23,216
Deaths: 2,854
Recovered: 4,074
Active: 16,288

Do the math. That’s right, it’s still:

Sweden
Mortality rate: 12.29%

Now who’s the idiot.

#244 Lahdeedah on 05.05.20 at 1:51 pm

#239 Lahdeedah on 05.05.20 at 1:48 pm
#227 Toronto_CA on 05.05.20 at 12:11 pm

#219 Lahdeedah on 05.05.20 at 11:21 am
No, Sweden’s approach of laissez faire is not working, fyi, to all who posted it was. Sweden has a 12.29% mortality rate.

_______

I hate to call people stupid, but you deserve it. The mortality rate you posted is invalidated in that you have no idea how many people have actually been infected with the virus. Nor, factually, do you know if the death counts include people who died with Corona rather than from it. Anyone stating a mortality rate without a qualifier is a complete idiot and lacking basic intelligence about numerology.

– – – – – – – – – –

Also, “numerology”? LOL. Are you consulting your horoscope too?

Speaking of basic intelligence…

#245 Toronto_CA on 05.05.20 at 1:52 pm

#232 Sky on 05.05.20 at 12:49 pm

What is your point? At this risk of sounding like a broken record, the number of confirmed cases is a fraction of number of actual covid-19 cases. Logically, that must be the case since testing was not done at all initially and is even now not sufficient in most countries (added to that the virus only lasts 2 weeks or so). And study after study says the same thing:

http://www.sci-news.com/medicine/actual-covid-19-cases-08305.html
“To test the quality of official case records, Professor Vollmer and Dr. Bommer analyzed data from a recent study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

Their data show that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of coronavirus infections and the true number of infected people worldwide may already have reached several tens of millions.”

Tens of millions of cases…or hundreds of millions I think could be possible. Why anyone is quoting mortality rates as if it proves anything needs to know that the data is completely useless because we don’t know how many asymptomatic or mild cases are out there. It’s like people have lost their ability to think, or have no grasp of math.

#246 Toronto_CA on 05.05.20 at 1:55 pm

#243 Lahdeedah on 05.05.20 at 1:48 pm

Repeat after me. Confirmed cases DOES NOT EQUAL total cases. Repeat it.

Therefore deaths from confirmed cases is not the actual mortality rate. Like I keep saying. It’s like talking to a brick wall. That mortality rate is meaningless because the denominator is unknown and could be off by a factor of 85x or more (again, the Stanford study gives this number, it could be wrong..who knows? Not you, not me).

Sigh. I give up. It’s like talking to a brick wall, only dumber.

#247 Faron on 05.05.20 at 1:56 pm

#234 Don Guillermo on 05.05.20 at 12:51 pm

Convincing the GP to even accept nuclear energy is difficult enough and then throw in the costs and the years it takes for engineering and approvals.

No easy answers.

————————————————-

Agreed. I think the 1970s were pivotal in this sense. The oil shocks hit and oil dependent nations responded by seeking energy security/independence. France and Japan went nuclear and now have a substantial portion of their grid powered by fission. The US started to go that route but Three Mile Island helped to kill public sentiment and that was that. It seems safe to assume the oil sector lobbied hard against nuclear also. I don’t know Canada’s history very well other than that Ontario has active power stations.

No easy answers, but efforts are needed.

#248 Toronto_CA on 05.05.20 at 1:59 pm

Obviously I meant numeracy, not numerology. I typed fast when I was ranting at your inability to grasp basic logic. But please, nitpick that typo and ignore the true argument I’m making around number of confirmed cases versus actual cases.
The fact that you typed out “LOL” in your reply indicates I shouldn’t be arguing with you and your room temperature IQ.

#249 Lahdeedah on 05.05.20 at 2:07 pm

#248 Toronto_CA on 05.05.20 at 1:59 pm

“Tens of millions of cases…or hundreds of millions I think could be possible.”

“Why anyone is quoting mortality rates as if it proves anything needs to know that the data is completely useless because we don’t know how many asymptomatic or mild cases are out there. It’s like people have lost their ability to think, or have no grasp of math.”

– – – – – – – – –

Really, interesting Watson. Do elaborate.

So what is it – tens of millions or hundreds of millions?

LOL.

You obviously don’t know how to read data, since you are referencing values that are not measured within the statistical analysis offered by Johns Hopkins Hospital data dashboard. The ratio concerns known infections vs mortality rates, not unknown infections.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I understand pulling numbers out of your rear is a much more effective method of calculation. Clearly, the world’s leaders need to consult you on your numerology intelligence.

#250 Faron on 05.05.20 at 2:29 pm

#229 Sail away on 05.05.20 at 12:21 pm

Re: plastic in ocean

Who were you quoting?

I think the garbage patch, or people’s understanding of it, is a bit like the POLAR VORTEX that our media outlets like to crow about when it gets a little cold. The media misrepresents things. But, it is there but has been misrepresented as looking like your local garbage dump.

Curious: Why would you sail through a Gyre that is, by definition, a low wind place? Wouldn’t you want to head further south into the trades if you were headed to Hawaii?

If there was wind do you think that in and among the seas you would be able to visually pick out the bits of plastic? It’s hard enough to see a person when they go overboard much less a tossed out cigarette lighter.

#251 MF on 05.05.20 at 2:40 pm

Faron and Lahdeedah scoring some victories here, and racking up points.

It’s like a Batman and Robin duo.

Reminds me of when IH used to manhandle people, before he went a little off the rails that is (still a fan though!)

MF

#252 Sail away on 05.05.20 at 2:45 pm

Markets up again. Making free money is such a fun adult hobby.

US markets up +32% from low. TSX up +0.91%. The aforementioned represents a significant statistical differential. Ignore it at your peril.

#253 Don Guillermo on 05.05.20 at 2:49 pm

#248 Faron on 05.05.20 at 1:56 pm
#234 Don Guillermo on 05.05.20 at 12:51 pm
Convincing the GP to even accept nuclear energy is difficult enough and then throw in the costs and the years it takes for engineering and approvals.
No easy answers.
————————————————-
Agreed. I think the 1970s were pivotal in this sense. The oil shocks hit and oil dependent nations responded by seeking energy security/independence. France and Japan went nuclear and now have a substantial portion of their grid powered by fission. The US started to go that route but Three Mile Island helped to kill public sentiment and that was that. It seems safe to assume the oil sector lobbied hard against nuclear also. I don’t know Canada’s history very well other than that Ontario has active power stations.
No easy answers, but efforts are needed.
***************************************

Darlington is just east of Oshawa. It was an Ontario Hydro plant. I’ve worked in oil & gas for decades and never once heard anyone talk negative of the Nuclear Industry. In fact we went through a phase where we wanted to implement small package reactors as energy inputs to reduce the carbon footprint of the oil sands. Of course the GP wanted no part of it.

#254 Dr V on 05.05.20 at 2:49 pm

Laadeedah – I dont usually jump in to the scrap, but I encourage you to look at the logic TCA is presenting.
It’s pretty straight forward. Your stance is based on how
somebody chooses to define the term.

240 Follow – from the part I read that is a good link. Money is more abstract than what people generally think. I prefer to describe the government bonds as “deposited” in the BOC as opposed to “bought”. They are like money in that they are a promise to pay (at maturity) with interest along the way.

#255 Faron on 05.05.20 at 2:50 pm

#227 Toronto_CA on 05.05.20 at 12:11 pm

It’s fun how you guys used to say “watch Sweden, watch Brazil”. And, now that Brazil is hurtling off the rails, it’s watch Sweden. LOL.

I gotta get off this thing…

#256 NoName on 05.05.20 at 3:00 pm

Some people fear corona some consume it… Anyways here is an interesting video to watch, bit longer but could help to estimate were are we at dude did for us and italy from data readily available on internet.

Only question is how accurate is all this iss because his guestimate is backstopped with data that may or may not be an accurate.

here is a link (30min long)

https://youtu.be/LnQcbAKWkPE

#257 NFN_NLN on 05.05.20 at 3:03 pm

#244 Lahdeedah on 05.05.20 at 1:48 pm

Sweden
Confirmed: 23,216
Deaths: 2,854
Recovered: 4,074
Active: 16,288

Do the math. That’s right, it’s still:

Sweden
Mortality rate: 12.29%

Dude… seriously, you forgot:

Unconfirmed: 1,879,451

Re-run your numbers.

#258 TheDood on 05.05.20 at 3:14 pm

#73 Attrition on 05.04.20 at 6:25 pm

…….When it comes to real estate, forget the investor lens you see the world through, and instead consider owning a piece or land–even just a lot–that is arable and defensible.

That would be a wise investment.
__________________________________________

Real estate is a wise investment?

The markets pay 7-8% annually plus dividends. For the short to medium term going forward real estate in Canada is a losing proposition, guaranteed to lose money.

#259 Sail Away on 05.05.20 at 3:35 pm

#251 Faron on 05.05.20 at 2:29 pm
#229 Sail away on 05.05.20 at 12:21 pm

Re: plastic in ocean

Who were you quoting?

I think the garbage patch, or people’s understanding of it, is a bit like the POLAR VORTEX that our media outlets like to crow about when it gets a little cold. The media misrepresents things. But, it is there but has been misrepresented as looking like your local garbage dump.

Curious: Why would you sail through a Gyre that is, by definition, a low wind place? Wouldn’t you want to head further south into the trades if you were headed to Hawaii?

If there was wind do you think that in and among the seas you would be able to visually pick out the bits of plastic? It’s hard enough to see a person when they go overboard much less a tossed out cigarette lighter.

——————

Faron, I would happily discuss my experiences sailing through the gyre, but I do not care to have you correct me on how my observations were wrong.

#260 Bees on 05.05.20 at 11:04 pm

Just so everyone is aware this news story is based on last year, when the bees were discovered in Washington state, white rock and Nanaimo.
The man sent to destroy the hive in Nanaimo made to much noice so the bees defended the hive, he got stung seven times said it felt like a red hot pin.went right threw the bee suit and his clothes.

Parts of the bees were sent to japan for analysis and all were from different hives which is good news.
Anyway no new discoveries yet in 2020. But it’s all over the news now.
So don’t worry yet.

Just to stir the statistics pot more people die in the US from honey bee stings than people die in Asia from the Asian hornet.
Just saying. They are in fact a non aggressive bee to humans but can destroy a honey bee hive in hours.

Anyway moms advice holds try don’t hit the bees nest or you will get stung.

However it is affecting the housing market for anyone with flowers In the garden that attract bees.

Cheers

#261 Tudval on 05.06.20 at 4:33 am

All this ‘analysis’ based on two month of data collected during a pandemic lock-down. Smart way to plan for the future… On the other hand, there will be those who look at the history of the cities over the last 150 years and see how they got over the many setbacks. As well, the ‘work-from-home’ has been tried over the last 30 years, nothing new – there is a reason it never caught on. It’s called Human Nature and its many manifestations.

#262 Tudval on 05.06.20 at 5:32 am

Toronto really was the best place to be during the lock-down. Good shopping still available and close to the best health-care. If you had a backyard, it really was like vacation.

At first, it will look like a slow start to the summer… then the restrictions will be lifted and the pent-up demand will start to kick-in. Economic stimulus will start to be felt by the fall. By next spring it will be bustling again. Then the foreigners will come. First, the hard done people of Hong Kong (provided they will be free to leave by then, depending on CPP mood). I feel for them – well educated, free spirited, decent people, losing their home to the whims of the Communist Party. No more two-system for them.

How things will evolve in the rest of Asia is anybody’s guess. Not so good is my guess. Which countries will Trump’s trusted partnership network include? We won’t know for a while yet. On the other hand, Canada will still look like a safe bet.