The big unlock

Alex asked a simple question of me on the weekend:

Should we make some low ball offers on houses that have been on the market for a while (given current state of market and low level of competition) while this pandemic is still going on? Or should we wait a bit, once it becomes apparent that real estate has jumped the shark, sellers get desperate/insolvent and listings start to pile up?

We have some flexibility in timing for buying a house, and don’t want to catch a falling knife… So I guess my question is: is it a good time to buy? ;-)

Sadly I must utter the three words that pain me the most. I don’t know.

There, I’ve said it. Judge me. But first an explanation why this blog (or anyone else) won’t have the foggiest about what comes next until this week has ended. Or beyond. Here’s why…

The jobs massacre.
Friday will be epic. Historic. Remember that day since it’s unlikely you’ll see this again: a jobs report telling us 5 million Canadians have lost their incomes and the unemployment is 20%. Actually Scotiabank economist Derek Holt says the jobless level would be an unbelievable 35%, were it not that four million people have given up looking for work.

Remember the unemployment level hovered near 5% a few months ago. Thus, we have the largest, fastest, ugliest spike in history.

Ditto in the States. Poor Trump. In one month all the jobs – 23 million of them – created in the last ten years vanished. Thirty million are on the dole there and eight million here. This is the worst performance since the 1930s and ten times the drop at the end of WW2 when the economy demobilized from its war-time high. The US rate will travel from 3% pre-virus to 16% now. Ouch.

But it’s all temporary, right?
Yeah. It is. The jobless crisis didn’t happen because the economy choked on its own (as in 2008) but because politicians choked it off. The public health emergency has been unique in our lifetimes and deliberately gutting the GDP to stop it was an exercise never before tried in modern times, or on a global scale.

So what happens when it gets turned back on? How fast will the rebound be? How much pent-up demand? Will consumers burst out of lockdown and swarm stores, take vacations and buy cars – or not?

This, Alex, is what we don’t yet understand. Consumer sentiment is key to where real estate (and the whole economy) goes in the coming months. Polls show media and governments have done a bang-up job scaring the crap out of people. Most Canadians think they’ll probably get the bug and, if they do, die. The stats tell us under 1% are infected and 96% of those have mild symptoms. But no matter. We’re terrified. This is why Warren Buffet dumped $6.5 billion in airline stock. You should pay attention to that. Turning on the economy will be a lot harder than turning it off. And the longer this takes, the poorer the outcome for real estate, hospitality, travel, tourism, oil and Alberta.

So people have lots to spook them.
Car sales were down across Canada 74% in April. There are now 720,000 families who have asked for mortgage deferrals, or 15% of all those with home loans. A record, of course. This is twice the number that requested help in the US (7%). Obviously too many folks own real estate they can’t afford, and lenders have a lot of ‘splaining to do.

Major real estate boards (Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver) report their April numbers this week. They will be a disaster. Big headlines. As of last week there was a decline of 81% in condo sales across the GTA and a 79% dip in 416. Detached sales were down 69% in Toronto. Showings/appointments are averaging 30 a day, compared to a normal 130. But broker Stephen Glaysher says, optimistically, “We have reached the bottom of the market.”

Not so in Calgary. This is what the realtor’s in-house economist there says:

“COVID-19 changed everything. Our city and province face the additional challenge of the dramatic shift occurring in the energy sector. The uncertainty in the market is expected to cause a dramatic decline in housing demand over the second quarter. With social distancing expected to soften by the third quarter, the pace of the decline in sales will ease by the third and fourth quarter. However, a turnaround in sales is not expected by the end of the year, as the financial implications for many households will have lingering effects.”

Exactly. Lingering effects. Collateral damage. Wounded consumer confidence. How much, and how deep?

Conclusion:
Canadians are cocooning, frightened, with millions living off government handouts and bombarded with negative news. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus has resurrected financial markets, but the future now hangs on consumer confidence. Key is the ability of governments to unlock the lockdown without a surge in new cases – and the economy functioning in an age of social distancing with realtors in nitrile gloves and little blue masks.

So, Alex, this much is clear: people listing houses now have to sell. Otherwise they wouldn’t. They’re motivated and ripe for a lowball offer. Second, once the restrictions ease expect a flood of new listings – maybe more supply than demand in some markets. Prices will be unrealistic, as sellers try to exit at early-March levels. Wait them out. Because the real gush of listings comes when the six-month mortgage deferrals run out – September. Meanwhile the unemployment rate of 20% or higher now is not going back down to 5% any time soon. Widespread income loss and social distancing are negatives for houses. Plus we’re being told to expect a Covid-19 rerun (of some kind) in the autumn.

So if there’s a property on the market you like now, give it a shot. If not, wait for the fall surge amid a new spate of scary headlines. Then strike.

I guess I knew after all. How reassuring is that?

 

195 comments ↓

#1 Ace Goodheart on 05.03.20 at 4:12 pm

Is it not true that real estate down turns last about 10 years and take about 5 years to reach their bottom?

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.20 at 4:13 pm

Sell in May and stay away…..

The numbers this week should have the stock market crapping it’s pantaloons.
10% short term decline? 20?

#3 Bill Gates 5G Microchip Vaccine Depopulation Mass Immigration NWO on 05.03.20 at 4:21 pm

Real estate prices only have to go up.

#4 Brian Ripley on 05.03.20 at 4:21 pm

Cash flow crunch begins as FEB 2020 Employment earnings show the new trend change after multiple peaks in January
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

On the street:
Calgary condos trading at MAR 2006 market prices
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

Cash will again be king.

#5 Leftover on 05.03.20 at 4:24 pm

Moody’s says a 30% drop.

But as always it’s a local thing. Calgary may have already dropped that much, Vancouver might still and drop even more, Toronto could fare better. Who knows.

Lost jobs and tighter credit certainly point to deflation though, and, as noted, September is when things will really hit the fan.

Probably best to wait, there’s no rush.

#6 Zed on 05.03.20 at 4:25 pm

Great post just as i ‘m going to visit a house listed for 8 months already, asking price was reduced by 50k last week.

I know how to approach the negotiation now.

#7 Keen Reader on 05.03.20 at 4:26 pm

Depending on one’s portfolio, the dip in house prices should be bigger than the dip in the markets, for a house to truly be a good deal at this juncture. The math is easy only if looking in isolation at the “bargain”. The potential upside of remaining invested could lead to delaying a purchase, even if house prices raise again. Leverage (mortgage) is also a factor to consider. Not simple!

#8 Dolce Vita on 05.03.20 at 4:28 pm

“Meanwhile the unemployment rate of 20% or higher now is not going back down to 5% any time soon.”

Yet again, no TRUER words.

I ran the latest “gone, gone” numbers for Italia based on recent positive case numbers and R0 data. Here are dates for when there should be 0 cases in Il Former Bel Paese:

R0 = 0.7 October 26, 2020
R0 = 0.5 July 3, 2020

Without knowing what R0 is for Canada but looking at the John Hopkins “Daily Cases” histogram today, Canada looks to be 2 months behind Italia (assuming peak has been reached in Canada, doesn’t look it):

THUS, add a couple of months to the above dates for “gone, gone” in Canada (well, new cases = 0)

…early September to the end of December.

——————————-

“…wait for the fall surge amid a new spate of scary headlines”

FALL 2021.

#9 Last Gasp on 05.03.20 at 4:29 pm

Correlate this.

Passenger traffic at Canadian airports were down 99 per cent year to date. Tourism levels for summer in BC are expected to be down 95 per cent for international visitors and 85 per cent for locals. Von Gretz the often cited Austrian School of Economics poobha, postulates that in western economies, property will reset down 90 to 95 percent and raw land down 99 per cent, which is typical in deep depressions like 1929 and he forecasts our economic uplift out … and up …by 2025. Yikes! His model suggest similar cascading value resets in waves as stressed borrowers dump assets to stay liquid. Possible with 40 pet cent unemployment peak and no viable or much lower future income. Is there any economic correlation with any statistics from anyone anywhere, anymore as we are all flying blind here. Probably not, as I also I have been wrong about everything so far. Prognostications uttered are in fact cheap, mine included. Anyway like an early winter, things just keep getting worse. What kills you in such circumstances is the “normalcy basis” thinking that a very warm fall won’t effect what comes in very, very, bad winter. It isn’t how cold it gets but how quickly when you haven’t properly prepared. And baby it’s getting cold outside.

#10 Pessimistic on 05.03.20 at 4:29 pm

Garth sir, I agree more with you when you say home owners in GTA will eat drywall rather than accept low ball offers. TD said it real estate will be 7-8% higher this year and sky rocket 2021. More ppl will hear TD prognosis and make it happen. As for me wishing for last 7 years after starting to read your blog that impossible happens…. while I am very thankful for your advice on the investing over these years

To be accurate, TD’s economist said: “Canadian home prices (will) suffer an outsized decline in the second quarter. After which, national average home price growth should proceed at a positive, but subdued pace for the remainder of the year. Read the report for yourself here. – Garth

#11 Lost...but not leased on 05.03.20 at 4:41 pm

RE slaughter…

A while back it was posted that many condo projects being built in BC for 2020 completions were 93% sold.

These are the one’s that will get hit FIRST…as buyers begin to bail and/or their financing..insurance etc collapses…aka they will be literal and figurative ghost towers.

#12 JSS on 05.03.20 at 4:42 pm

The missus and I are both still working (thank god, praise him, knock wood, etc). The issue is that, even though we’re both still getting a pay check, we’re too scared to spend. So now we’re saving more. Spending less on gas, eating out, buying useless things etc. And I think even after this pandemic ends, we will remain more frugal.

So two things:
1) the pandemic has changed our spending habits
2) even though we’re employed, we’re spending as if we’re unemployed. Our minds are telling us “hey you might be out of a job tomorrow. Make sure you have some $ saved. So don’t spend!”

#13 not 1st on 05.03.20 at 4:42 pm

How about the argument about staying liquid and mobile?

Why would you want to trap yourself when Canada is clearly going down.

Trudeau has spent no money on our major industries that would bring us out. He has virtue signalled and bought votes. Without our export engines Canada cannot climb out of this. Some house lusty people sure don’t know jack about how the Canadian economy works.

I am willing to bet that UE us closer to 40% and that it will never be single digits again on our lifetime.

Does that sound like a vote of confidence to really bury yourself into a overpriced home now. Those things will be half price in a few yrs and then you may not even want to live here by that time and need to look for opportunity else where for your family.

#14 not 1st on 05.03.20 at 4:45 pm

If Canada tries to lock us down again in the fall, I will be buying an E5 visa and joining trumpland.

#15 Reality is stark on 05.03.20 at 4:54 pm

Let’s talk about bankruptcy.
In a socialist nation the virus is not a negative for everyone. Take the example of the 29 year old 6 years out of university. $60,000 in student loan debt and $20,000 in credit card debt. They are collecting EI and also got CERB. They are currently not paying rent but are banking the CERB to find a nicer rental accommodation.
The new amateur desperate landlords are likely to demand a 3 or 4 month deposit. They will be pleased to get that amount assuming their new tenant to be responsible.
Once they give their new landlord the money and move in for September they intend to claim hardship and declare bankruptcy. Their application will be accepted.
These are the unintended consequences of socialism.
When I talk to Americans I explain how Canadians view taxes as providing freedom whereas Americans view taxes as tyrannical.
Their arguments usually centre around the fact that when the average public servant makes double the private sector wage you create a new ruling class. Nepotism becomes endemic as only the well connected get those government positions which have less and less to do with merit.
As we move towards a 60 cent dollar and debt downgrades the new ruling class will become more strict about you following their rules.
More taxes may not provide you with more freedom after all.
We will all pay an enormous cost for not cutting the costs of government after the financial crisis.
You have lost your money and your freedom.
As a perfect example of the naïveté of the average Canadian we don’t need to look any further than this blog. This is a financial forum where you would think we would be debating Nouriel Roubini’s latest theories of stagflation but the imbeciles here focus on gun issues.
Pathetic. You get the poverty you deserve.

#16 Dolce Vita on 05.03.20 at 5:02 pm

One thing I find a bit unsettling is seeing people demanding the economy be opened up, not so bad in Canada, worse in the USA (our largest trading partner).

We won’t know in Europe with economies opening up how that is going to go for another 2 weeks (Apr. 14 Phase I reopening, 3.5MM back to work + essential services at work already), in Itala’s case, that is to say, will COVID resurge?

I say 1 month after the fact based on the Spanish Flu, all I could find. If you have Netflix, watch “Coronavirus Explained” and fast forward to these 2 time marks:

15:30
18:00

to see St. Louis at the time did all the right things, loosened up and had to lockdown again 1 month later.

—————————–

Why these US States that are loosening their economies up…we’ll find out how that went in about 3 weeks. Sad thing is that they will say look nothing happened, let’s open up more…and they probably will.

1 month later, the truth will be told.

I think N. America will be in trouble economically for a lot longer than thought (4th Qtr optimistic). But, you know, you always hope for the best.

#17 calgarymatt on 05.03.20 at 5:03 pm

Good analysis. We will not get out of this economically, for a few years. Our national debt will likely double in 2-3 years.
Prior to COVID Canada intentionally knee-capped the energy Industry which was 10% of GDP. Now we have a massive hole to dig out of with 10% less workers and many more Canadians getting used to handouts.
In some ways having our finances a mess will allow some much needed reforms in Canada. A focus on economy and productivity needs to be done. The days of fishing or doing construction for 12 weeks and collecting pogey the rest of the year may be at risk. We do have a very well paid civil service that could use a haircut. I could go on.

#18 Piano_Man87 on 05.03.20 at 5:03 pm

People only selling houses because they have to is 100% true.

My parents were going to sell their house this spring to move closer to their grandkids. But the virus has put those plans on hold. Why sell unless they absolutely have to? They are going to wait until next spring.

Prices are not a great way to judge the housing market right now… here in Saskatoon sales activity has plummeted – nearly by 50%. But prices are higher, I think because condo sales are down, so on balance, the avg. price moves up. In reality, the market is trashed.

#19 Coho on 05.03.20 at 5:05 pm

I think this is the wrong time itching to buy a house. There might be another lockdown scheduled for the next flu season. Rest assured this first go at global global lockdown has seen a an unprecedented degree of global economic/food/product/supply chain/medical/human/politico etc behavioural data gathering.

We’re seeing “would be” or “will be” tyrants in the making. The ruling elite have learned a lot during this first go round. The boot of tyranny may indeed be eased of our necks just a little for a limited time. However, will there be a round 2 when the boot will exert ever more pressure on our collective throats that would result in a dystopian global society?

With the current data in CV19 many people are irrationally fearful of the chance of contracting and dying with the virus. Who knows what is in store in the near future? Perhaps a deadlier breakout. Future lockdowns may be inevitable since the groundwork has already been laid. It has gone swimmingly well for the ruling elite and has opened up all kinds of narratives and options of human control going forward.

I’d wager a third or fourth lockdown attempt would be unlikely because the one two punch fear factor delivered by gov and media would be far less potent. Thus even those who are most fearful now would perceive the establishment and its minions to be crying wolf by then. Now and into next year is the ruling elite’s best window to grab and keep hold of
unprecedented and widespread powerr over the people.

And we have seen that certain “leaders” very much like having their boot on people’s necks. Look at the tyrannical behaviour of some of the US state governers.

#20 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 05.03.20 at 5:09 pm

BUFFET BELIEVES IN AMERICA…..!!!

But he stayed on the sidelines during the crash.

Could be only for 1 reason.

https://youtu.be/1hul1kuWDKE

#21 Linda on 05.03.20 at 5:12 pm

Have to say, can’t see consumers saving the day any time soon. We have to get to the point where the lockdown ends first. Now some easing is beginning or about to begin in various provinces, but that is just a toe in the water. If there is a surge or spike in infections that toe is going to get withdrawn PDQ. However, let us be optimistic. All is well & after cautious easing life is back to ‘normal’. Except it won’t be. An unknown number of businesses will not survive the shut down. In the economic game of chairs the laid off workers are not all of them going to get another chair any time soon. Add in the fact that a rather hefty chunk of the population was unable to survive without government largesse. If they didn’t have the funds to pay for stuff like food, rent, utilities etc. during the lockdown, doesn’t seem likely they will have funds post lockdown. Further, when & if they do get back to work, seems likely that most if not all of whatever they earn will have to be turned over to various creditors.

Will non-essential spending resume? Eventually. However, expect prices to soar for luxury items like dining out, travel or personal care. If business must maintain social distancing, the cost of providing that service will have to be passed onto the customer. Looks like we all of us get to live in interesting times.

#22 Comrade on 05.03.20 at 5:13 pm

Perhaps this all can change on a dime. I still dont see how.
Based on my industry, engineering, me and most of people in my network are able to coast on some of the existing contracts, and majority of projects were already cancelled or pushed out a year or two ahead. Majority of us are expecting to lose 70 to 90% of revenue in june. So if we are not working and issuing tender packages, then construction and manufacturing will be affected after. There are some government projects, but that’s not enough sustain us all.
And current government wage subsidy programs are meant to last till beginning of June. That 250bil deficit can easily be between 500 bill and 1 trillion by the end of 2021 as they will have to be extended beyond june and some major stimulus packages will be required.
I don’t want to be all doom, but it’s hard to see how this will recover quickly. And I can’t even think what will happen if we have to go through this again in Fall.
Yet when you read comments on FB and MSM majority wants strickter lockdowns, soccer moms are losing it even at a thought of sending their kids back to school before September.

#23 Grunt on 05.03.20 at 5:13 pm

Public psychology hinges on arrival of a COVID vaccine or 2nd & 3rd waves of infection. Whichever occurs first.

The preference will be for homes. Sealed HVAC towers may well become least desirable. While older apartment buildings with balconies and opening windows and the ability to produce positive air pressure into common areas may just suffice.

#24 Happy Sunday on 05.03.20 at 5:15 pm

Thanks Garth great post!
Actually I was thinking the same thoughts today
Where is the future going?
Consumer sentiment?
And what will it look like? For sure never the same.
Agree no light switch to turn the economy on. And
Long term? Well we will eventually recover when is a guess.
Every day I read the news and all the analysis all the charts and everyone making predictions in every direction yep a just a guess.

And for me it is fear of the unknown and that’s the driver.

Should I preserve some cash before the next correction?
Do I wait collecting dividends until we recover.
What are safe stocks?
Over the past 11 weeks every stock declined did not matter, some recovered really well, some are speculative based on an assumed recovery of the day like Airlines or oil well someday they gotta go up.
Monday both should drop?
My observations is the money moves very fast to the hottest trend of the day based on assumptions!
No one is investing they are just buying and selling on latest news or tweet.

You say this will be a bad week because unemployment numbers are released. Should be a yawn because it’s already expected and priced into the markets.
You mentioned weeks ago 720,000 are asking for mortgage deferrals, another yawn, bank stocks already priced it in, and as you said it’s a deferral banks will make it in the end.
Our buddy Mr. Buffet lost $50 million another yawn he has to report market losses. Should have been expected. Selling the airlines should not have been unexpected, everyone has talked about travel being dead. Gosh it’s even in the local paper.

Again just a guess.
So is it a balanced portfolio and wait and see?
What’s Balanced?

Or sell while you can get your money out and wait?
cash is king especially looking for opportunities and not necessarily stocks could be a depressed business or a new business?
Buy gold waiting for hyper inflation?
take delivery of 50 million barrels of oil because they give it away?
Buy a depressed house well it’s long term like a balanced portfolio Right?
Did I mention in the 80s a friend got a house for nothing, here are the keys you can have it for the mortgage.wow!
interest rates are cheap maybe negative?
Buy a farm and grow veggies and raise animals.

What are you doing?

Me I am waiting for the next shoe to drop! something thats not expected! Not a black Swan but something not really on anyone’s radar.
My prediction for Monday is as Good as yours!

Have a great Sunday thanks for reading.

Have a great Sunday

#25 the Jaguar on 05.03.20 at 5:15 pm

A wise man (Garth) once said, ‘ Sales fall first. Prices later. Usually a lot later. ‘
If this has been historically true, seems to me it will be more so this time. It’s unfortunate that the Wuhan Flu’s (nope, not a typeO) many victims also includes the economy, but you don’t need a degree in Economics (or medicine) to see that the condition of that patient has been downgraded to “grave”. Recovery will be slow with prognosis unknown.
It’s not reasonable to scare the bejesus out of people and think blowing a whistle with a call out of ” O.K., everybody back in the pool” will result in an immediate return to previous norms.
There will be some pent up demand for haircuts, golf games, table service at outside patio restaurants and whatnot, but the herd has been seriously spooked. Any community with heavy reliance on tourism will feel the impact. Turns out the twinning of Highway # 1 near Golden, B.C. was perfect timing as the traffic will be lighter than usual this year. People will enjoy their own backyards and provincial equivalents where they can return home to their own beds when the sun goes down.
If they need to sell or downsize their homes they can enjoy the summer months courtesy of the generosity extended to them by way of payment deferrals authorized by their bad ass, ancient warrior Bank. Don’t forget to express your thanks.
All things considered I see it as an excellent opportunity to simply ‘Walk off the Reservation’. ( Can I still say that?. Oh well, I did ).
The madness of crowds affords the perfect opportunity to slip through unnoticed like Hannibal Lecter. WestJet, I’ll be perched at the edge of my seat with my carry on, awaiting you to green light my boarding call.

#26 BS on 05.03.20 at 5:15 pm

#18 Piano_Man87 on 05.03.20 at 5:03 pm
People only selling houses because they have to is 100% true.

My parents were going to sell their house this spring to move closer to their grandkids. But the virus has put those plans on hold. Why sell unless they absolutely have to? They are going to wait until next spring.

Tell that to this guy who owned the house below who just sold in a court ordered sale at a price 5% over what he paid in 2008. There are always people that must sell and must take what ever the market will pay. That sets a new price for similar properties. The virus and recession that follows will increase these must sells and decrease those who able and willing to buy.

_______________________________________

1511 ERRIGAL PLACE, West Vancouver
Bought 2008 $4,260,000

Just Sold $4,400,000

2019 Assessed: $5,695,000
2018 Assessed: $7,069,000
2017 Assessed: $7,667,000

https://www.audrychua.com/SoldbyAudryChua.php/Details/319/1511-errigal-place-west-vancouver-british-columbia

#27 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.20 at 5:20 pm

@#12 JSS

“we’re spending like we’re unemployed”
********

And therein lies the dilemma.
Our economy is largely based on Mr and Mrs Consumer out there buying “stuff”.
And when they stay home and hunker down for weeks, months …….years?
God help the economy……

#28 Ejy on 05.03.20 at 5:22 pm

Judging by my business, I would say no recovery in sight for at least a year or more. Normally, with a recession (such as 2008-9) I see business drop for about 2 weeks and then come piling back in. Pre Covid I could see my income solid several months out; now it is week-to-week (I am an essential service). Clients who are realtors are scared and stunned (Vancouver Island); they do not believe the BCREA predictions of quick recovery. Lots of scared people with no reliable income in the foreseeable future; not going to be buying cars or homes anytime soon (only those who really need to, not those who just want to). I asked a realtor client what he planned to buy over the next few months; “gardening stuff” he said, “will try to become more self-sufficient.” He gets his wife to cut his hair now, feels that is fine for the future. Most people are petrified and that is not going away anytime soon.

#29 Rich on 05.03.20 at 5:24 pm

It will vary by market segments, there is no such thing as a city real estate market; just a series of villages and investment tiers. I’m a Realtor in Calgary (25 years) and you can’t find a four-plex anymore as people exit the stockmarket and look for “dividends”. However “big house” inventory is piling up in the suburbs. While the depths of the recession may rewrite owning property, the fundamentals always stay the same.

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.03.20 at 5:24 pm

Looks like the old Sage has been caught swimming naked.

#31 YouKnowWho on 05.03.20 at 5:25 pm

What’s that? You miss human touch? Let Samantha Fox tell you what to do!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W1btg3mpEOc

#32 Pessimistic on 05.03.20 at 5:26 pm

If Canada tries to lock us down again in the fall, I will be buying an E5 visa and joining trumpland.

Aside from E5 what are some other ways to escape to trump land Legally? Please advise

#33 Living and learning on 05.03.20 at 5:27 pm

As evidence mounts that the source of the corona virus was the Wuhan lab, a lot of fingers are starting to point to Dr. Fauci as he was funding, to the tune of about $7.4 million, the Wuhan lab scientists through the NIAIH (US National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases) which he was the head of. Obama shutdown this type of research in the US in 2014 as it was too dangerous so it got moved it to Wuhan. Newsweek magazine is now onto him. I’ll bet Gates is trying to distance himself from Fauci right now. Trump should fire him asap.

https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741

#34 Michael on 05.03.20 at 5:29 pm

“Nitrite gloves” (are they explosive?) don’t you love spillchucker?

Re stats say 1% infected. What stats Garth? Ontario isn’t testing anywhere near enough people to know what percentage of the population is infected. On the one hand maybe you get a test if you have symptoms and on the other stay home because asymptomatic infected people are spreading it! WTF? Restarting economy when you aren’t taking testing seriously like Doug is most certainly not seems like the height of folly. This ain’t over.

#35 YouKnowWho on 05.03.20 at 5:33 pm

Everything said about real estate makes sense.

Except there is this.

Banks are safe, risk secured my CMHC, aka Government.

The very Government that makes rules about stress test, money giveaways, stands to lose from real estate cratering both with CMHC costs and economic losses.

And so, any doubt that Mr. Trudeau will use his unlimited spending Gift Card that he has in his pocket until September, as needed? Nothing is out of the question when it comes to keeping real estate afloat in this land of delusion.

As you keep pointing out Garth, real estate is Canada’s #1 industry. Wouldn’t you do all you can for the #1 industry in the country?

#36 Bad Hombre once yelled at the orange menace, he peed his pants on 05.03.20 at 5:41 pm

DELETED

#37 Northshore guy on 05.03.20 at 5:50 pm

In my opinion the 6 month mortgage deferral is far too long. It’s so long it’s almost a holiday. They should have kept it at 3 months with a possible extension of 3 months based on data. Most of people I know are celebrating it and enjoying the cash flow. You have to understand people can’t think 2 months in future and 6 months for them is a lifetime.
They are fully expecting another 6 month holiday if lockdown happens again in fall.
Sadly I think that will happen, gotta keep the house of cards.

#38 apeil on 05.03.20 at 5:54 pm

#1 @ #3 – wake up fellows…. Garth is right, also listen to Ross Kay at Howestreet.com

#39 TheDood on 05.03.20 at 5:57 pm

Alex asked a simple question of me on the weekend:

Should we make some low ball offers on houses that have been on the market for a while (given current state of market and low level of competition) while this pandemic is still going on? Or should we wait a bit, once it becomes apparent that real estate has jumped the shark, sellers get desperate/insolvent and listings start to pile up?

We have some flexibility in timing for buying a house, and don’t want to catch a falling knife… So I guess my question is: is it a good time to buy? ;-)
______________________________________

Is a great time to consider buying provided its on your terms. Garth is correct in that any listing currently on the market is someone who’s in way over their head debt wise and is ripe for a good ol fashion vulchin’.

Because these are unprecedented times, there’s no reference for how to move ahead. If I was you, I would consider offers at 30-40% lower than ask and see what happens. It is definitely a vulchers market for sure. If a deal can’t happen on the terms you want, just walk away. No harm done.

#40 May the 4th Be With You on 05.03.20 at 5:59 pm

There will be an uprising and revolution against all of this, starting on Monday, May 4th.

Be there.

#41 AB on 05.03.20 at 6:07 pm

#15
With an limited world view like yours, it is no surprise the socialists can brainwash the masses. Yikes! All the money in the world does not buy freedom. Time to read a history book.

#42 Alex on 05.03.20 at 6:11 pm

Thanks Garth! Awesome explanation. This is why I come back everyday!

#43 Wrk.dover on 05.03.20 at 6:28 pm

I’m a Jed Clampet when it comes to having the $ and not knowing how to deal with financial instruments, but after another week that won’t mean a thing. Cash will finally be back in style.

It’s been a long old hold.

#44 Drinking on 05.03.20 at 6:32 pm

Well, I dug a few more shovels of dirt today for my underground bunker, it’s Sunday, decided to take it easy; preparing for the fall when the Covid,Wuhan,Sars 2 or whatever one one’s to call it will combine with the seasonal flu.
Vegetable seeds are growing nicely; got rid of my potentially carrying virus felix (cat) flee bag; did not want her to infect me; got myself a second canine instead; she is a meanie, bad tempered will capture a few squirrels if needed! I think that I set; just need to start brewing my own choice of drink. :)

#45 zandra on 05.03.20 at 6:36 pm

@#32 Pessimistic on 05.03.20 at 5:26 pm
If Canada tries to lock us down again in the fall, I will be buying an E5 visa and joining trumpland.

Aside from E5 what are some other ways to escape to trump land Legally? Please advise
____________

good chance it’ll be bidenland by then.

#46 Felix on 05.03.20 at 6:43 pm

As a public service to help provide a thoughtful distraction to readers during this pandemic, I am pleased to present the first edition of what will hopefully be a recurring item here on Greater Fool for those with curiosity and higher IQs.

Welcome to……

Felix’s Feline Filosophy – Episode 1
****************************

Today’s deep question topic for you to mull over in these hours of quarantine:

If you escape to the outdoors for some relief and sunshine and see a “Lost Dog” sign on a telephone pole in your neighbourhood, what does that mean?

Has anything of value actually been lost?

Is it possible that this may indicate a positive gain, instead?

Could this be a deep state ruse to distract you from the pandemic?

If you come upon a mutt, obviously low IQ, that appears to be lost, how are you not interfering with the effects of beneficial Darwinian evolution if you attempt to return it to its human slave?
*****************************

Feel free to develop your treatise in response and email me here, while maintaining social distance.

Enjoy your inner dialectic, and stay safe in your basement.

#47 SquareNinja on 05.03.20 at 6:45 pm

#9 Last Gasp on 05.03.20 at 4:29 pm
Correlate this.

WHOA… you said what needed to be said. Things ain’t going back to normal. It doesn’t matter if the economy wasn’t sick before COVID-19… it’s sick now. Many businesses, especially small businesses, will be forced to close forever…

#48 Flop... on 05.03.20 at 6:46 pm

I’ll do a couple of posts to show what is currently possible in Vancouver area.

The second one is a Pink Post, no squealing Vancouver homeowners on here, you can’t have it both ways.

Here is a new home that just sold in Richmond for 1.23

I say new, it was built 2 years ago and took them that long to sell

Originally asking 1.62 April 2018

Busier road I think but if you look at the short video it is a decent looking place.

Alright, I’m going to get out the goggles and gloves out of retirement and do a low- end pink post next…

M45BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kqBKvRUnCmc

10819 SOUTHRIDGE ROAD
Richmond.

Sold for 1.23

#49 looking up on 05.03.20 at 6:48 pm

Be where on the 4th?

Or do you mean just wake up alive?

#50 AGuyInVancouver on 05.03.20 at 6:49 pm

#3 Bill Gates 5G Microchip Vaccine Depopulation Mass Immigration NWO on 05.03.20 at 4:21 pm
Real estate prices only have to go up.
_ _ _
It is funny, we wouldn’t be able to discuss whether Trudeau will be forced to lower immigration targets here, yet somebody can promote a crazy, right-wing nutbar theory right off the bat.

Called satire. – Garth

#51 Drill Baby Drill on 05.03.20 at 6:55 pm

I say wait until the second round of Covid 19 is over this winter then start aggressive house hunting. Before then there will still be too many thinking their home is worth far more than it actually is.

#52 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 05.03.20 at 6:55 pm

There are many, many positives in the data from the corona virus…many times more people have had the virus than the authorities thought and the death rate is extremely “low” and comparable to the seasonal flu. This fact should be at the start of all the media press releases showing the vast majority of people survive and a significant percent don’t even know they had it. Why the health authorities are not screaming the fact that we are almost all of us going to live and live long and be healthy is “a very worrying question?” Our world is safe. In Canada where the death rate begs the question are we missing the data?

#53 Flop... on 05.03.20 at 6:57 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Vancouver.

Well, it’s actually a Pink Snow case but the year is all messed up, so are the seasons.

I will show this one because it roughly shows the bottom of the Westside market, and also what happened to these guys who got too far ahead of the market in 2016.

I’m trying to focus on realistic options for the truly interested on here, I can show high end carnage daily, but I have proven that point into submission.

xxxx Osler Street, Vancouver

Paid 2.13 June 2016

Sold 1.66 late April 2020

So even though it’s at the bottom of the detached market, they still took a 22 percent chop to the back of the head.

At least someone in Vancouver got a haircut…

M45BC

#54 psydney on 05.03.20 at 6:59 pm

‘Most Canadians think they’ll probably get the bug and, if they do, die.’

I’m not sure who you’ve been talking Garth, but this isn’t true. And no, people I’ve spoken with are not terrified either. Canadians, for the most part, are doing what’s being asked of them to slow the spread.

I get it… hyperbole. But it seems it’s becoming a theme of your otherwise excellent blog. If you say it enough, maybe it will become Truth.

Leger poll found 64% of Canadian fear becoming sick of the virus and 76% think a family member will. Here‘s a report on it. Maybe you should read more. – Garth

#55 Darwin on 05.03.20 at 7:00 pm

#40 May the 4th Be With You on 05.03.20 at 5:59 pm
There will be an uprising and revolution against all of this, starting on Monday, May 4th.

Be there.

————————-

Still no thanks.

#56 Yukon Elvis on 05.03.20 at 7:05 pm

#31 YouKnowWho on 05.03.20 at 5:25 pm
What’s that? You miss human touch? Let Samantha Fox tell you what to do!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W1btg3mpEOc
……………………..

Many thanks for that one…..Memories……..sigh….

#57 IHCTD9 on 05.03.20 at 7:20 pm

I think they might have to extend this CERB thing. I’m sure business is going to suck for the rest of the year.

Meanwhile, I’m getting a ton of stuff done around the bunker complex. Got 20 yards of 5/8” crusher run coming in tomorrow, the driveway is going to look like new. I’m also designing a rock bucket for the small track loader, going to order the steel this week and start welding it up. Took 3 trees out, dug out the stumps, filled the holes, planted grass seed. My wood pile is getting huge.

Hopefully the economy blows enough for Trudeau to extend the CERB. Once the Covid spending starts to slow, he’ll start itching to blow 10 or 20 billion more on something. Might as well be more free cash no?

If so, I’m in like Flynn…

#58 WAKEUP on 05.03.20 at 7:24 pm

Any guesses as to what the Dow’s going to do tomorrow?
Some of the worst economic numbers ever and it goes up almost daily.

The Virus is still running rampant, and there are asymptotic carriers out there everywhere showing no signs of illness but are still contagious.

Has anyone considered how this facade is going to be paid for?

I’ll share a secret, your paying for it, and so are your kids, and their kids, and their kids….

Futures down 1.4% at 19:30 ET. – Garth

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.20 at 7:30 pm

@#49 Looking up and dont see anything
“Be where on the 4th?”

++++

May the 4th….be with you.

Keep an eye peeled for Star Wars Geeks out in full regalia…..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Wars_Day

I’m fat enough to go as Pizza The Hut.

#60 Ballingsford on 05.03.20 at 7:33 pm

That’s one of the reasons I like you Garth! You’re man enough to say “I dont know.”

No one knows what’s coming these days.

Well, maybe millenials do, they seem to know everything! Bless their souls and little hearts!

#61 Damifino on 05.03.20 at 7:34 pm

#23 Grunt

While older apartment buildings with balconies and opening windows and the ability to produce positive air pressure into common areas may just suffice.
————————————

Yep… I rent one of those. I’d never consider a sealed place. Fabulous fresh air is blowing in from the Pacific through my suite and across my balcony today.

Wouldn’t trade it.

#62 Ed McNeil on 05.03.20 at 7:35 pm

I do not see the complete failure of the economy as some suggest. However it is doubtful that things will be the same. I think perhaps we will have an updated New Deal as instituted by FDR during the Depression. We will come out of this, no doubt changed, but stronger, more resilient people.

#63 WAKEUP on 05.03.20 at 7:40 pm

Imagine what’s going to happen when the bailout gods implement a law that subsidizes people that are feeling sick or pretending to feel sick down the road.

I unfortunately don’t have that much faith in man kind when money’s involved, imagine how many people are currently milking/ extorting the system.
With lots more to come.

#64 joblo on 05.03.20 at 7:42 pm

Alex:
“So I guess my question is: is it a good time to buy? ;-)”

would you buy in Venezuela?

#65 Ronaldo on 05.03.20 at 7:44 pm

#37 Northshore guy on 05.03.20 at 5:50 pm
In my opinion the 6 month mortgage deferral is far too long. It’s so long it’s almost a holiday. They should have kept it at 3 months with a possible extension of 3 months based on data. Most of people I know are celebrating it and enjoying the cash flow. You have to understand people can’t think 2 months in future and 6 months for them is a lifetime.
They are fully expecting another 6 month holiday if lockdown happens again in fall.
Sadly I think that will happen, gotta keep the house of cards.
—————————————————————-
I wonder how much equity they had to have in their home in order to get the deferral and will they even qualify for addtional deferral once the prices collapse and they are seriously under water. Did any of the uninsured mortgages qualify for this deferral?

#66 Turned over my garden ... on 05.03.20 at 7:49 pm

today. ‘Maters ready to plant … peas, beans,beets,lettuce,swiss chard too. Freezer still half full of game from last years hunt. Grapes looking great … t’will be good. Maybe enough for some homebrew this year … life is good on the left coast. If you have a little soil you can grow a lot if inclined … you can keep “save the dishes”

#67 Angry Bird on 05.03.20 at 7:52 pm

#33 Living and learning

——––———————————————————-

Look up Fort Detrick.

And stop relying on the main-stream media for your information!

#68 Ronaldo on 05.03.20 at 7:55 pm

#47 SquareNinja on 05.03.20 at 6:45 pm
#9 Last Gasp on 05.03.20 at 4:29 pm
Correlate this.

WHOA… you said what needed to be said. Things ain’t going back to normal. It doesn’t matter if the economy wasn’t sick before COVID-19… it’s sick now. Many businesses, especially small businesses, will be forced to close forever…
—————————————————————
Yes, and good luck to those that are left in getting anyone to come back to work especially in the service industry like Timmies, bars, restaurants, etc. Kids are getting paid $2000 to stay home with mommie and daddie and will not go back to work unless they are foreced to. They have until July 15th before that little scheme runs out. My son advies me that he is having difficulty getting his former workers (uni students) to work as a result of this free money. He tells me that a friend in same business in Calgary can’t find willing workers for same reason even with the unemployment at such high levels and they won’t come back unless they get $25 to $30 per hour. Socialism at its finest.

#69 Cto on 05.03.20 at 7:56 pm

Garth is right with everything he says, if it was 1990…
However Canada has changed and the government knows it.
Over the last 10 to 20 years they have let Canada’s primary industry become building and selling houses to each other.
Making things for the world to buy is too hard… That’s it.!
Turtle boy and his liberals will destroy everything else to keep a floor in the housing market. Canada has Nothing else.
That’s right Moreau, we know what you’re thinking…

#70 Trojan House on 05.03.20 at 7:59 pm

Everyone should watch the movie “Brazil.” So pertinent today even down to the a line Robert DeNiro’s character says: “We’re all in this together.”

Of course there will be a second wave. We were late locking everyone down and social distancing so all this is doing now is prolonging the virus, so in fact, a second wave is not really a second wave but just the first wave extended.

It’s time for our PM and health authorities to get a second opinion and not rely just on the WHO. Isn’t that what most people would do when diagnosed with an illness?

#71 Cto on 05.03.20 at 8:00 pm

#65 Ronado

Do the uninsured mortgags qualify for a deferral?

Good question Garth do they?

Yes. – Garth

#72 Rowdie on 05.03.20 at 8:00 pm

Good post Garth! Yes, wait until September and onwards, to even think of purchasing a home. Feels we are at the threshold of a huge decline in the real estate market here in B.C. The debt ratio versus income is unthinkable, and all this free money is compounding the real problem. People receiving $2,000 a month (will end in July), and if extended, they won’t go looking for work. Maybe, just welfare later. B.C. needs a shake up, and it’s getting a BIG one!

#73 East Coast Life Style on 05.03.20 at 8:00 pm

No vaccine by Dec. 31st 2020. Not gonna happen.

#74 Nonplused on 05.03.20 at 8:05 pm

I’ve been thinking and reading a lot about this and have come to believe the restart will take a lot longer and be a lot bumpier than people expect. Every week we are exposed to some new and even worse news that most people hadn’t planned for or considered possible. Some examples of things to consider:

The toilet paper panic that started this thing off and seems ridiculous in hindsight has been followed by a very real disruption in meat processing that has shuttered a good portion of North American capacity. Expect this to get worse before it gets better. “Culling” has already started especially among chickens. That is food that is going away and not coming back. Sure, they will raise new chickens down the road but the ones that get culled represent a hole in the production that won’t be filled because once they are gone they are gone. It’s similar to wasted productivity when people stay home.

Bars and restaurants that are allowed to open on May 14th or whenever it may be at 50% capacity might chose to stay closed. Margins are already pretty tight so they may be operating at a loss. Also, the owner/operator will have to carefully consider whether anyone will show up. Or whether the staff would rather collect $2000 a month to play MineCraft.

Very little is known about this virus at this point but even after more than a month of the schools being closed people are still catching and dying from the virus. Heck at this point we don’t even know if catching and surviving it gives you immunity. So it is very possible once things reopen we will see an immediate second spike and be going through the whole thing over again just like an evil version of the movie Groundhog Day.

When the malls reopen, will people who didn’t have any money before the outbreak flood in to buy new things they don’t need with money they don’t have? Will there be a lineup to get in with social distancing and numbers of people controlled like at Costco? Will they have to set up sneeze screens? And how long will it be before the trucks carrying summer fashions and mountain bikes arrive at the loading docks?

Oil, of course, will not rebound for a long time, so Alberta is truly pooched. Not only is the price war still on, but everywhere you can store a barrel of oil is stuffed full to the brim. Since the recovery will likely take years, not weeks, demand isn’t going to just bounce back, so it will take a long time to burn off that inventory.

Airlines are pooched. Air travel was already a huge hassle but imagine adding temperature screening, mouth swabs, and mandatory masks to the check-in process. Many people will say “no thanks”. And even if the public returns to their love of being abused by the TSA, what about all those airplanes sitting on the tarmac for over a month now? Can you just fill ‘er up and take off? I think not. There will be maintenance and many of the airlines will be bankrupt without bailouts so they simply won’t be able to afford to do it.

Of course AirBnB, hotels in general, cruise lines, etc. are done like dinner. They will not survive without bankruptcy. Imagine if there were another outbreak on a cruise ship sailing around aimlessly looking for a port that would let it dock? And another outbreak on a cruise ship there most certainly be.

And how will Disney reopen? Will lineups be allowed with social distancing? How many people can they allow in the park at a time? Will the typical theme park customer have any money to go?

New car demand may rebound but there isn’t going to be any “pent up demand” because the old cars haven’t gone anywhere for over a month and the 30% of people who are unemployed aren’t going to qualify for that critical interest free financing. Many people may reconsider whether it even makes sense to buy a car you may not be driving much in the next year.

And this, my friends, sadly, is but a partial list. Only time will tell if shutting the economy down was worth it, or we should have just spent all those billions on emergency triage tents and taken the hit. Perhaps people should have been allowed to make their own decisions. Perhaps the response should have been more measured, as in maybe shutting down schools and other compulsory activities but allowing people to decide for themselves if they want to risk an Adele concert. My contention is that free people and the free markets they create always come up with a much better solution than government can. And how on earth did we decide to follow a model invented by the Chinese government? Did they invent the cell phone? Have they ever invented anything but new and unusual forms of cruelty and oppression? I’m talking the Chinese government not the people so please don’t delete.

Guidelines and suggestions are one thing. Overruling the will of the people is another. The damage here could be not just a broken radiator and dented fender but perhaps a totaled frame.

And if I haven’t been pessimistic enough on this admittedly long and depressing comment, consider this: The “black swan” is still out there. The pandemic is a white swan we should have been prepared for. Where is the black swan? I don’t know. If I did it wouldn’t be a black swan anymore, at least not for me. But I would hazard a guess that as in 2008 it is in the financial system. It will be some sort of unexpected consequence of this simply unprecedented level of interference in the system by government. What they have done is bigger than a war, all wars, excepting nuclear war.

I think the history books will say the government should have spent the money mobilizing triage tents as like the TV show M.A.S.H., rather than trying to contain the crisis within the current health care system by “flattening the curve”. This could be the worst blunder government has ever made since the US bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki setting off the arms race. We are still living under the dire and ominous clouds that produced. As with those bombings, they really hadn’t thought it through. Perhaps it was beyond human intellect to do so. Perhaps this is too.

#75 Ballingsford on 05.03.20 at 8:10 pm

Been following you for a long time Garth. In my early years, I learned from your wisdom and sometimes posted.
Then I got it! That was an “aha” moment when finally got it.
Been a quiet follower for years afterwards now because I got your message. I post occasionally now.

Mostly to try to wisen up millenials in an off-the-cuff way and let the smart ones take something from it.

Garth, you are doing a service that will have long lasting effects for people with an open mind.

“It is a wise and unselfish man who plants a tree and knows theyll not sit in its shade.”

#76 Steve French on 05.03.20 at 8:15 pm

Yo Garth, and other blog dogs:

What do you think of Thomas Piketty?

https://theweek.com/articles/906013/worlds-dominant-ideology-breaking-what-replace

#77 Long-Time Lurker on 05.03.20 at 8:22 pm

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea has reported six fresh cases of the new coronavirus, continuing a month-long streak of below 100.

Infections continue to wane in the hardest-hit city of Daegu, where no new cases were detected.

Figures released by South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Saturday brought national figures to 10,780 cases and 250 virus-related deaths.

At least 1,081 cases have been linked to international arrivals, but these cases have also declined in recent weeks as the government strengthened border controls, such as enforcing 14-day quarantines on all passengers coming from overseas.

With its caseload slowing, government officials have been relaxing social distancing guidelines and shifting focus to ease the shock on the economy. During the first three months of the year, the economy saw its worst contraction since late 2008 as the pandemic hit both domestic consumption and exports.

Health authorities still raise concern about a broader “quiet spread” and is planning antibody tests to learn how widespread the virus is.

The Associated Press

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/05/01/the-latest-singapore-to-let-some-businesses-reopen-may-12/

#78 Ronaldo on 05.03.20 at 8:27 pm

#52 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 05.03.20 at 6:55 pm
There are many, many positives in the data from the corona virus…many times more people have had the virus than the authorities thought and the death rate is extremely “low” and comparable to the seasonal flu. This fact should be at the start of all the media press releases showing the vast majority of people survive and a significant percent don’t even know they had it. Why the health authorities are not screaming the fact that we are almost all of us going to live and live long and be healthy is “a very worrying question?” Our world is safe. In Canada where the death rate begs the question are we missing the data?
—————————————————————
The data is there. For example in BC, YTD (124 days) there has been 114 deaths due to the virus or .92 deaths per day. Canada wide, 3675 deaths or 29.6 deaths per day.

In January this year, there were 75 deaths due to drug toxicity or 2.3 deaths per day and we don’t hear too much about that.

From the Public Health Agency of Canada
————————————————–

Current Seasonal Influenza Update
The 2019-2020 influenza season began on August 25, 2019.

In Canada, as of April 4, 2020 there have been 42,475 confirmed cases of Influenza. To date there have been 24,332 cases of Influenza A and 18,143 cases of Influenza B.

—————————————————————
Here are the weekly influenza reports from Gov’t of Canada website:

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/flu-influenza/influenza-surveillance/weekly-reports-2019-2020-season.html

As Figure it Out says, “figure it out”.

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.20 at 8:29 pm

@#56 Yukon Elvis

Page 3 girl Samantha Fox?
I didnt think anyone used more hairspray than The Donald until I saw that old blast from the past video.

#80 ImGonnaBeSick on 05.03.20 at 8:31 pm

I find it amazing that Ryan’s recession indicators seem to be incredibly accurate… Regardless of the reason. Does he weigh the same as a duck?

#81 paul on 05.03.20 at 8:35 pm

#60 Ballingsford on 05.03.20 at 7:33 pm
That’s one of the reasons I like you Garth! You’re man enough to say “I dont know.”

No one knows what’s coming these days.

Well, maybe millenials do, they seem to know everything! Bless their souls and little hearts!
————————————————————————————————
Garth, said he did not know then corrected himself. Lol

#82 Ronaldo on 05.03.20 at 8:35 pm

#57 IHCTD9 on 05.03.20 at 7:20 pm

As my ma used to say, “Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth”.

#83 short horses on 05.03.20 at 8:37 pm

Garth, Ryan, and colleagues, I just wanted to say thanks again for your daily dose of free (priceless) advice. I did the math and my globally diversified portfolio of low-cost index ETFs is down 2.6% YTD — not bad, all things considered. I can even pay my rent on time.

#84 MF on 05.03.20 at 8:42 pm

#14 not 1st on 05.03.20 at 4:45 pm
If Canada tries to lock us down again in the fall, I will be buying an E5 visa and joining trumpland.

-You forgot about the virus. And that this is a worldwide issue.

The US actually has more cases than Canada (relatively speaking).

MF

#85 John on 05.03.20 at 8:43 pm

I know I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again.

I live on the Sunshine Coast of BC.
A good friend of mines wife is a realtor of 40 years.
She’s buying properties for buyers from Asia now.
She said there is loads of interest and money on the sidelines.

The buyers want to get out of China to somewhere rural and less populated.
It makes sense but I think it’s going to have a negative spin for many locals or others with a limited budget who would like to buy a home.

It’s hard to compete.

#86 Smitty on 05.03.20 at 8:45 pm

This real estate market is similar to what happened in 1989/1990. In 89 house prices peaked and in 1990 was the start of declining prices. Don’t bother low balling any offer, you will still be overpriced to what the property is actually worth. House prices will be 10% lower by September of this year and another 10% by this time next year.

#87 Mike on 05.03.20 at 8:53 pm

Lower Brainland BC home prices only go up on yearly basis.

Come COVID or hatch virus or what not…

#88 conan on 05.03.20 at 8:58 pm

My guess is that Covid has not finished surprising us yet. Every time it surprises us it is never positive.

My long shot guess on what Covid will do, that has not happened yet, is a complete shakedown of off shore banking. Any element that is remotely negative to nations is going to get nuked.

#89 NFN_NLN on 05.03.20 at 9:02 pm

I don’t like half measures. If we’re going to emulate communist values I say we rip off the band-aid and go all in.

Let’s round-up the 0.02% of high risk patients from their homes and “concentrate” them into “health camps”.

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. Or are they waiting until all guns are outlawed in Canada first?

#90 MF on 05.03.20 at 9:09 pm

#54 psydney on 05.03.20 at 6:59 pm

“Canadians, for the most part, are doing what’s being asked of them to slow the spread.”

-Going to agree with this sentiment fully.

“Leger poll found 64% of Canadian fear becoming sick of the virus and 76% think a family member will. Here‘s a report on it. Maybe you should read more. – Garth”

-That survey only asked 1500 people, and it was online. Global news added this:

“Leger’s internet-based survey cannot be assigned a margin of error because online polls are not considered random samples.”

-And then there’s this:

“They appear even more concerned for their loved ones, with 76 per cent of respondents saying they were afraid someone in their immediate family would become infected.”

-Like psydney posted, people are more concerned about the well being of those more at risk, IE why we are trying to slow the spread.

MF

#91 45north on 05.03.20 at 9:24 pm

Last Gasp

Passenger traffic at Canadian airports were down 99 per cent year to date. Tourism levels for summer in BC are expected to be down 95 per cent for international visitors and 85 per cent for locals. Von Gretz the often cited Austrian School of Economics poobha, postulates that in western economies, property will reset down 90 to 95 percent and raw land down 99 per cent, which is typical in deep depressions like 1929

which understates the problem. I mean the great depression of the 1930’s left an indelible mark on society – specifically my parents and my wife’s parents. I’ve read the Fourth Turning but it seemed a little obtuse and vague. The good news is its meaning will become clear. I’m a boomer – raised in Toronto, I remember standing in the hallway in our house while Hurricane Hazel pounded against the windows. We’re headed for political problems like we’ve never seen.

#92 Yukon Elvis on 05.03.20 at 9:40 pm

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.03.20 at 8:29 pm
@#56 Yukon Elvis

Page 3 girl Samantha Fox?
I didnt think anyone used more hairspray than The Donald until I saw that old blast from the past video.
………………………….

Yah, what a hottie. I downloaded the pics. :)

#93 TurnerNation on 05.03.20 at 9:42 pm

For all you 2nd wave fans – hoping that your team makes a showing this winter.
Do you think it’s normalcy displaying the entire world’s personal health file in real time on your screens?
Wins-Losses-Ties.
More to the point what do you think this information is being made available to you in real time?

Sports aren’t on.
During your next doctor’s visit ask them to broadcast your stats on the newswire why don’t you.
It’s a sick game.
Anytime something’s Free, you are the product.
Your mind specifically. There is no news we are being given; only predictive programming.

#94 Hawkeye on 05.03.20 at 9:43 pm

I Know a person who put in 27 ridicules offers on houses in Toronto 1 took it [thats all you need] So Alex if you really want to buy a house try that approach, do not forget the real estate fees,and the ,transfer fees.

#95 Toni on 05.03.20 at 9:44 pm

Canada deserved better. These April stats are mind blowing and more scary than any covid19 headlines. I read some small businesses owners testimonies tonight: for those still hoping a quick re-opening, most are at 1 month/max 2 before shutting down definitively. Recovery will not happen without a huge dose of confidence. As for now, nothing is done to boost this confidence. In any given economy downturns I have witnessed, the first people who were leaving a country were generally those who could afford it. People staying behind were either too old to start a new life or have no financial backup to do so. I sincerely wish I am wrong but I don’t see nothing fun about the demographic and social perspective here.

#96 Ballingsford on 05.03.20 at 9:44 pm

#81 paul on 05.03.20 at 8:35 pm
#60 Ballingsford on 05.03.20 at 7:33 pm
That’s one of the reasons I like you Garth! You’re man enough to say “I dont know.”

No one knows what’s coming these days.

Well, maybe millenials do, they seem to know everything! Bless their souls and little hearts!
————————————————————————————————
Garth, said he did not know then corrected himself. Lol
—-
I’ve known a lot of Paul’s. Most of them are intelligent and able to read between the lines.
You missed it.

#97 MF on 05.03.20 at 9:54 pm

#95 Toni on 05.03.20 at 9:44 pm

“I sincerely wish I am wrong but I don’t see nothing fun about the demographic and social perspective here.”

-So I guess you’ll be moving to Africa then. Best demographics on the planet (youngest).

MF

#98 The Trudeau Dellema. on 05.03.20 at 9:59 pm

Ok blog dogs, what would you do?

My daughter (student) has been offered a job at Stupid Store. Front line. 1 month. She already have employment at summer camps in July and August if they go ahead.

Problem is if she takes the job the student relief stuff gets scaled back. She say “well I get $2 over minimum wage danger pay”. But I say “yes but you have to deduct $1250 from your paycheck. You’ll be working for much less than minimum wage.”

You see here the problem with bailouts? Does anyone get it?

Anyway I am considering gifting her the difference between what she would make at Stupid Store and the $1250 to have her stay home and stay safe. What would you do?

Do you now see the irrevocable damage that has been caused by government interference? A kid cannot even take a job anymore without being put behind the eight ball.

#99 Doug t on 05.03.20 at 10:08 pm

I can’t wait for the time when we look back at this and go “ Oh my god what did we do” – it’s a disaster

#100 Ronaldo on 05.03.20 at 10:27 pm

#70 Trojan House on 05.03.20 at 7:59 pm
Everyone should watch the movie “Brazil.” So pertinent today even down to the a line Robert DeNiro’s character says: “We’re all in this together.”

Of course there will be a second wave. We were late locking everyone down and social distancing so all this is doing now is prolonging the virus, so in fact, a second wave is not really a second wave but just the first wave extended.

It’s time for our PM and health authorities to get a second opinion and not rely just on the WHO. Isn’t that what most people would do when diagnosed with an illness?
——————————————————————
I don’t think this wave thing holds much water. I believe that viruses are pretty stable and steady. It’s the record keeping and the testing that produces the waves imo. I believe the virus had plenty of time to make its rounds by the time they shut us down and until they start doing testing for anti bodies, they won’t know how many of us have been infected by it since many don’t even get any symptoms from what I have read. I suspect that even when we open up again that we will not see much difference in the death rate which is currently very low and concentrated in certain areas. It will probably be out of the way by end of June. Time to get on with it.

#101 Ronaldo on 05.03.20 at 10:33 pm

#74 nonpulsed

A good analysis.

#102 WAKEUP on 05.03.20 at 10:44 pm

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/05/02/intelligence-report-says-china-lied-about-origin-of-coronavirus/amp/

Francis Boyle author of the current US Bio Warfare Act confirms the New York’s Times assessment of the lethality of Covid 19-15-17%
Numbers based on info coming out of China.

If this Virus is Geo engineered with gain of function characteristics it’s not going away any time soon.
It’s been weaponized says some of the top Virologists.
None of which were wearing tin foil hats.

#103 Not 1st on 05.03.20 at 10:51 pm

Sovereign wealth funds buying up US equities

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-05-01/norway-s-1-trillion-wealth-fund-expands-u-s-stakes-amid-rout

#104 Sail Away on 05.03.20 at 10:58 pm

Some interesting thoughts from Kevin Kelly:

• I’m positive that in 100 years much of what I take to be true today will be proved to be wrong, maybe even embarrassingly wrong, and I try really hard to identify what it is that I am wrong about today.

• Over the long term, the future is decided by optimists. To be an optimist you don’t have to ignore all the many problems we create; you just have to imagine improving our capacity to solve problems.

• The universe is conspiring behind your back to make you a success. This will be much easier to do if you embrace this pronoia.

#105 neo on 05.03.20 at 11:15 pm

At the end of the day if Buffett is sitting on $137 billion and not willing to buy into this rally and the U.S. consumer that accounts for 70% of the economy has a 13% savings rate. The highest since the early 80’s. That tells me there is no pent up demand as you put it Garth and no V shaped recovery. People are hunkering down. The rest of 2020 is a complete right off at the very least. The US elections this year is going to be a gong show.

#106 NFN_NLN on 05.03.20 at 11:22 pm

USA – Back to School in September
USA – Vaccine before the end of the year

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg3hFWlOIuU&feature=youtu.be&t=18m0s

#107 BS on 05.03.20 at 11:26 pm

#85 John on 05.03.20 at 8:43 pm
I know I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again.

I live on the Sunshine Coast of BC.
A good friend of mines wife is a realtor of 40 years.
She’s buying properties for buyers from Asia now.
She said there is loads of interest and money on the sidelines.

The buyers want to get out of China to somewhere rural and less populated.
It makes sense but I think it’s going to have a negative spin for many locals or others with a limited budget who would like to buy a home.

It’s hard to compete.

There were a total of 21 houses sold in the whole Sunshine Coast in the last 30 days.

#108 Kim on 05.03.20 at 11:28 pm

“#3 Bill Gates 5G Microchip Vaccine Depopulation Mass Immigration NWO on 05.03.20 at 4:21 pm”

Trump just lost his Presidency for 2020 using this one quote.

#109 JSquared on 05.03.20 at 11:45 pm

Took a stroll down by the water today, mid afternoon, over to Granville Island to pick up some fresh produce. Tons of people out ‘n about, keeping the social distance, but still definitely got the feeling (or maybe it’s just me) that people are “over it” Too many weeks trapped indoors and no one cares anymore. Life is about living, being around other human beings, having fun, laughing. If we all have to stay cooped up, scared, trapped inside, just existing, not living…what’s the point?

#110 David on 05.03.20 at 11:58 pm

I tend to think the real elephant in the room is the prospect of another Covoid19 outbreak later this year. I can’t see how we can shut down the economy again and pay everyone to stay home. The economy will never recover. We might see some serious civil strife if the situation doesn’t stabilize. People are getting very frustrated and it will only get worse when the free money dries up. I don’t entirely share Garth’s view on the stock market and its prospects for recovery. This market downturn really does look different. Some sectors (airlines, cruise ship industry, tourism) might take a decade to recover.

#111 Not So New Guy on 05.04.20 at 12:02 am

The credit spigot will be key.

how much ‘free’ money the banks give out to goose the dead horse will determine much

#112 akashic record on 05.04.20 at 12:25 am

Michael Moore’s latest documentary is an unexpected eye-opener.

#113 Cherry Nameit on 05.04.20 at 1:53 am

Trudeau-Butts and Greta, now proven by their own kind to be fakes, phonies, idiots and liars . The Green Lie is just that, complete fabrication. As many of us already knew.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/smith-new-documentary-kills-off-the-sacred-gods-of-environmental-movement/wcm/7fca5b77-1742-412b-a31a-c5a37c8089e8

Thanks to media taking bribes by way of selling advertising space and nasty academics smothering the truth by battering their own with threats and sanctions the Green Carpet Baggers almost won.

we knew all along the same capitalists turned global control freaks, the Rockefellers, Soros, Steyer, spat a thousand ‘green groups’ with puppy dog sounding names like Tides and Stand Earth etc etc etc at us to bribe small native bands and fund atrocious law suits against energy. These are the same people who had built the oil industry to its peak through coal and gas investments to make billions and all they wanted was to do it all over again with Green.

We always knew that Climate Taxation was only created for the wealth distribution scam. But when the insane power grabbing thieves got hold of a few light headed politicians it was easily turned into a global scam.

It will take criminal charges against the likes of Trudeau to expose this and return peace to children who were used as pawns to suicide for the camera’s. Poor Greta, a sick child put out by her greed consumed parents. What of the millions who need to be deprogrammed, including our PM.

#114 willworkforpickles on 05.04.20 at 2:01 am

Broker Stephen Glaysher’s optimism is way high on the optimistic side at any rate where the gauge on RE in Canada matters most …South Central Ontario…

#115 Shannon Teir on 05.04.20 at 3:05 am

Can I make a suggestion? Can we maybe use this COVID disaster as an opportunity to EMPLOY a million MILLS and New Grads when the economy finally opens up?

Its a fact that civil servants are deep into double dipping, the unions and bureaucrats allow it, nudge nudge wink wink. The new grads have no opportunity to get that first job, find their way into a life of tax payer bliss because the old guard teachers, civil engineers, forestry , social work, ministry this and that, have ploughed themselves into debt so deep that only by screwing the young grads can they keep their heads above the elite elegant water. I say this is a disgrace.

How can Trudeau and company ignore the unemployment of entire generations just to satisfy the greed of a few? Retirement pensions should mean just that, retired, make way for a young person likely better educated and energized to start a new life.

A million young grads and unemployed Mills to buy homes and cars to start families and build the infrastructure of tomorrow.

Instead all that consumption and demand is getting flushed down the economic toilet in expensive car leases and mortgages that high living double dipping civil servants bought on credit and the gift of a double income courtesy of the unions and politician.

Are the high life civil servants retired or not? If they are give them a pension. If they aren’t don’t let them double dip and screw entire generations out of a life.

This seems an obvious solution to re-employing a million people. it will reinvigorate the economy. its fair to give the retired age persons a pension, but not at the cost of a stalled economy. Young people must work now. Old workers get that pension anyway.

Stop the madness, get the young back to work. If the stats show that a few retired double dippers have to sell up the mansion they bought with the largesse, so what? They still get the pension. Its not like we’re throwing old teachers to the wolves. They still get 70% of their working wage after 30 years service. No ones denying them that.

A teacher retired with a final wage of on average 82,000 will receive a generous retirement. They’ll need to pay tax on that but who doesn’t? They still get CPP on top. It leaves them with a very comfortable $5000 grand a month.

Get the young to work right now and the economy will boom with pent up demand from an new demographic that needs and wants everything. Milk and Honey here. Dont pee it away.

#116 Howard on 05.04.20 at 3:53 am

Any Toronto tenant looking for a desperate landlord take advantage of?

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.642802&-79.380128&17?listing=14-york-street-toronto-c4737765-4089930

Price changes:

April 6, $1 980
April 7, $1 890
April 13, $1 860
April 14, $1 850
April 17, $1 790
April 19, $1 760
April 26, $1 730
April 30, $1 710

Put in an offer for $1600 and I suspect this panicky owner will jump at it.

#117 belly rubs on 05.04.20 at 4:49 am

Fed historical employment chart shows shocks come quickly, like a thief at night, then employment trends back to normal. Whatever normal is, or new normal, those applicable systems always taper toward public pacification. That’s why I read blogs such as this, to gauge public perception, a litmus test of anecdotes.

Over the next 90 days, Canadian public will gradually ease into new patterns of socially acceptable behaviour, using common sense, self monitoring, community roll outs, and relying on personal affirmation of health between family, friends, and associates. The shadow of pandemic, lockdown, and distancing will taint relationships for 18 months. I expect more U-pick berry business this year, but people will also be on select restaurant patios socializing soon, with advisories to those with health issues to continue some isolation into summer.

Market lows for S&P still to come, then up after July—if US Pres has enough influence pre-election.

I’m guessing Real Estate activity will likely parallel employment numbers. Those who must sell setting any new discount price levels. Rather than buyers bidding up, sellers will reduce ask until a bite, because there isn’t a clear market profile of post-pandemic buyers. A tally of damage to economic sectors isn’t complete yet. Investment grade RE is in limbo. Off grid rural hide-a-ways might be up.

Beets, onions, radishes, early—ground still cool. One more week of fluffing dirt then big seeding. Vernal equinox was earlier this year than over a century—lots of light, low warmth. Bees are back.

#118 Toronto_CA on 05.04.20 at 6:14 am

I really think Canada is going to get the beating it never took from the 2008/9 crisis; mostly in the form of RE correction of Biblical proportions.

Canada’s overreliance on household debt to fuel consumer spending and the housing market, coupled with regional dependency on oil prices is just setting us up for the “economic shock” the BoC and Garth have warned everyone about for years.

At least most of Garth’s readers at least self-reportedly have huge amounts of capital on hand for emergencies and invested they can tap when their homes are reduced 30-40% in value and they lose their incomes.

As I’ve said, tons of white collar professionals are being laid off quietly or put on reduced wages. This is deflationary, we all get paid less and prices drop in turn to spur consumer spending. Scary, historic times we live in.

https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-covid-round-pinsent-masons-irwin-mitchell-rpc-and-weightmans-take-action

#119 Stan Brooks on 05.04.20 at 6:32 am

Everything is temporary. The devil of course is in the details – how long before these jobs come back.

In normal times – 3-5-7-… years. With automation most of the jobs will never come back.

This blog mentioned bank branches that were closed due to the virus that will never reopen. So will many restaurants, small businesses.

That feeling of being rich due to the credit super-bubble is gone, most likely never to be back. It fueled the consumption ‘economy’.

So how exactly will the ‘recovery’ work when we are at peak total debt (the highest in G7 and arguably in the whole world), zero rates and 35 % real unemployment (20 % ‘official).

Will these jobless numbers keep climbing?

What kind of inflation will come with the endless spending on credit?

Cheers,

#120 Steven Rowlandson on 05.04.20 at 7:20 am

Homeless people should make one cent on the dollar low ball offers on homes. The genocidal greed demons they are up against need a good bitch slap and a reality check.

#121 Tater on 05.04.20 at 7:33 am

I know of a firm in Calgary looking for more office space ( a unicorn these days) and are getting quotes in the $20 per sq ft range. Their current lease is in the $60s.

#122 Do we have all the facts on 05.04.20 at 7:37 am

#78 Ronaldo

In early March 2020 I began to ask why the mainstream media were not reporting on the underlying conditions associated with all deaths being attributed to the Covid 19 virus.

It had become very clear to me that the Covid 19 virus, like all viral and bacterial infections in the past, posed a serious threat to elderly individuals with compromised immune systems. Instead of taking immediate measures to protect the most vulnerable, particularly those living in over crowded long term care facilities, our governments decided to invest hundreds of billions of dollars to mitigate the impact on a general population with natural immunity from viral or bacterial infections.

Now we are being told that a second or third wave of viral infections is possible and that the lockdown should continue into the summer. Don’t you find it strange that Curly and his minions added billions of dollars in debt without introducing measures designed to improve the accommodation and health care provided to those citizens who are actually at risk to the Covid 19 virus.

Let’s face facts no government wants to focus on the years spent neglecting the obvious need to protect elderly Canadians at risk to every form of viral or bacterial infections. Better to have Canadians focus on a threat that originated in China.

I am tired of the hypocrisy of our governments. Please focus on the immediate need to improve the quality of life and health care provided to the most vulnerable. They truly do deserve much better after years of loyal service to this country.

#123 BillyBob on 05.04.20 at 7:56 am

84 MF on 05.03.20 at 8:42 pm
#14 not 1st on 05.03.20 at 4:45 pm
If Canada tries to lock us down again in the fall, I will be buying an E5 visa and joining trumpland.

-You forgot about the virus. And that this is a worldwide issue.

The US actually has more cases than Canada (relatively speaking).

MF

===================================================

Simplistic worldview as always. Relative to what? Of course the US has more cases. Perhaps that’s something to do with having 300,000,000 more people than Canada…?

The risk of Covid-19 in “The US” varies so vastly geographically as to make your generalization meaningless. Much like our provinces, health care policy is set by states, not nationally.

Highest deaths in NY: 24,708.
Lowest deaths in MT: 16.

Deaths in ON: 1216.

Second only to QC.
No wonder you’re scared.

#124 darth dog on 05.04.20 at 8:06 am

#116 Howard on 05.04.20 at 3:53 am
Any Toronto tenant looking for a desperate landlord take advantage of?

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.642802&-79.380128&17?listing=14-york-street-toronto-c4737765-4089930

Price changes:

April 6, $1 980
April 7, $1 890
April 13, $1 860
April 14, $1 850
April 17, $1 790
April 19, $1 760
April 26, $1 730
April 30, $1 710

Put in an offer for $1600 and I suspect this panicky owner will jump at it.

——————

Who wants to be stay in a tiny box and sleep in your kitchen? 1600 is no deal for that.

#125 Headhunter on 05.04.20 at 8:10 am

#115 Shannon Teir on 05.04.20 at 3:05 am

Agree 110%!

Boomers (which I am one) very very selfish generation… most of us were born on 3rd base but we think we hit a triple.. are egos are too big to admit we are not that smart just got lucky.

We had is easier and imho there is no comparison

#126 TurnerNation on 05.04.20 at 8:16 am

It appears, this economic zone knows as ‘kanada’ just got its communist Cultural Revolution.

– The old ways of decadence are no longer. The end of live theatre, local sports leagues, pub nights.

– Replaced with ready-made online Globalist content from the tech giants which rule our world: Netflix, Disney, Time Warner, Amazon, Apple et al.

– I imagine all medium to large gatherings and events will be held on government approval only, on a case by case basis. That is they must be deemed enriching and diversifying enough.
Sorry your town’s annual Horseshoe throwing/Beer Pong Olympics will not make the cut. #Stayhome and watch stuff online, k.

– Look around suburbs like Markham, Oakville in the GTA. Houses, then a ‘Smart Centre’ shopping mall. You are allowed only the generic big-chain stores. NO culture.
They have a larger supermarket, drugstore, LCBO; one fast-casual food chain; a bank; and a Subway and a dental office and a dry cleaners. That is life in bleak kanada.
Work, home, big-chains, online globalist content.

#127 YouKnowWho on 05.04.20 at 8:27 am

#40 May the 4th Be With You on 05.03.20 at 5:59 pm

There will be an uprising and revolution against all of this, starting on Monday, May 4th.

Be there.

———————————

Where? LEGO stores are in malls, so closed. Can’t get a Star Wars set to celebrate.

And everyone is already Darth with masks the new fashion accessory for Spring 2020. “Look, I am in a lineup.” Is the way you say it now.

#128 TurnerNation on 05.04.20 at 8:29 am

^ Did you notice last year the big consolidation among US media and TV giants? And the run up of food delivery apps, and online ordering/pickup at grocery stores. The groundwork was laid.

– Maybe CBC will do a follow up ‘fell good’ story on all the people who came here from Syria, started a small business, and now are wiped out??

The corporate scam continues. Go ahead try calling your airline, credit card, or big box store you are forced to use.
They have the same message, Covid blah blah, extremely long wait times; short on staff. (did they all pass on?). Everyone is working at home, call centers are mobile. You cannot reach anyone by phone; More likely they laid people off.
I imagine the government call centers are the same.
The big con.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.20 at 8:35 am

@#76 Steve French

Interesting article…and all before I had my 1st coffee.

“Socialism vs barbarism…”

Well if the version of socialism is a life lived under baby Trudeau’s wheezy, lecturing, guidance….

“I’ll take barbarism for 2 Alex”.

#130 MF on 05.04.20 at 8:37 am

123 BillyBob on 05.04.20 at 7:56 am

Can you read?

That’s why I said relatively speaking.

My advice to you is to stick to airplanes.

MF

#131 Cto on 05.04.20 at 8:44 am

Garth
Question,
What if banks are forced to provide mortgage deferals for an additional six months at the end of summer?
Could that seriously affect pensioners, collecting bank dividends? Will the government force the banks to throw these people under the bus to save their all important housing market? What do you think will happen?

The payments are being deferred, not waived. Banks will actually collect more from these homeowners over time. Don’t fret over it. – Garth

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.20 at 8:53 am

I wonder if Thomas Pickety owns millions of $$$$ in shares….a rich capitalist as it were.

Will he crap his intellectual pantaloons when the markets bleed red this week like the rest of us?
Or will he cheer the coming Millennial “basic wage” tax tax tax revolution?
Only surrealists know for sure.

#133 May the 4th Be With You on 05.04.20 at 8:55 am

There will be an uprising and revolution against all of this, starting on Monday, May 4th.

Be there.

Do. Or do not. There is no try.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQ4yd2W50No

#134 John on 05.04.20 at 9:06 am

NFN_NLN
Get your trigger finger ready could be a wee dip coming.

#135 Job#1 on 05.04.20 at 9:12 am

#90 MF

“They appear even more concerned for their loved ones, … afraid someone in their immediate family would become infected.”

-Like psydney posted, people are more concerned about the well being of those more at risk, IE why we are trying to slow the spread.

Get off your sanctimonious high horse. Concern about “loved ones” does not equal “those more at risk”. It’s you that’s making that connection.

If job#1 is to protect the at-risk, then it has been an unmitigated disaster, especially after all that Premier Ford promised to do. In Ontario, 4 out of 5 covid deaths have been in LTC homes. God preserve me from such a fate if this is what passes for “concern”.

#136 the Jaguar on 05.04.20 at 9:26 am

@ #74 Nonplused on 05.03.20 at 8:05 pm

Whew! Nothing left to do but climb into ones Thelma & Louise convertible, hit the gas and head for the cliff.
And what if that ‘Black Swan’ is China itself? All those empty cities it has built, its people no longer trusting their government, its complete loss of face internationally. Maybe this little firecracker called Covid will set off something previously unimaginable in a country that supplies the world. And maybe we will be left to wonder why we sold our soul so willingly in the pursuit of cheap goods. Maybe Andrew Mellon had it right all along……
‘“Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.”
It doesn’t have to be total armageddon if this happens even at a 50% level, but it will feel that way to some people. I think they call it ‘Judgement Day”.

#137 MF on 05.04.20 at 9:59 am

135 Job#1 on 05.04.20 at 9:12 am

“ Get off your sanctimonious high horse”

-Stopped reading right there. Good luck.

MF

#138 maxx on 05.04.20 at 10:01 am

“Will consumers burst out of lockdown and swarm stores, take vacations and buy cars – or not?”

Not in our household. We love to travel, but aren’t hopping aboard aircraft nor cruise ships anytime soon.

As for all of the plasticrap from overseas, ditto.

I truly hope that “pent-up” demand has seriously begun sublimating and people realize how much precious, beautiful cash they were wasting on high profit margin junk they absolutely don’t need. I see more people discovering how to take better care of themselves by getting out into the fresh air and beauty of nature than ever before. Hopefully this will stick.

The rest is mostly all cowpat.

And to Hades with the airline industry, its despicable arrogance and consumer abuse.

Here’s a better approach and one which I believe we’ll see more of:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ceciliarodriguez/2020/05/01/sicily-wants-to-lure-tourists-by-helping-pay-for-flights-and-hotels-post-lockdown/#41e9cd5431b9

Business of all stripes should brace and be ready for the head-to-head that will be required to win from their competitors what is left of the consumer purse.

#139 Dharma Bum on 05.04.20 at 10:03 am

In 2018, there were 1,922 fatalities as a result of automobile collisions in Canada.

World wide, about 3700 people lose their lives every day due to vehicular accidents.

Every 24 seconds, someone dies on the road.

Additionally, 10’s of millions per year incur non-fatal injuries resulting in severe life long disabilities.

What are the governments thinking??? They must immediately ban cars, and make driving illegal. This is a PANDEMIC, people. Lives are at stake. Stay home. Don’t drive! To believe otherwise is irresponsible.

These statistics must be reported by all government leaders on a daily basis via the lamestream media outlets.

We are all in grave danger. Start PANICKING!

https://www.statista.com/statistics/448234/fatalities-caused-by-road-traffic-collisions-in-canada/

https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

This message brought to you by the Society Of Paranoid Soccer Moms, and the Fear Mongering Association of Irresponsible Vote Buying Politicians.

#140 Stone on 05.04.20 at 10:15 am

#124 darth dog on 05.04.20 at 8:06 am
#116 Howard on 05.04.20 at 3:53 am
Any Toronto tenant looking for a desperate landlord take advantage of?

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.642802&-79.380128&17?listing=14-york-street-toronto-c4737765-4089930

Price changes:

April 6, $1 980
April 7, $1 890
April 13, $1 860
April 14, $1 850
April 17, $1 790
April 19, $1 760
April 26, $1 730
April 30, $1 710

Put in an offer for $1600 and I suspect this panicky owner will jump at it.

——————

Who wants to be stay in a tiny box and sleep in your kitchen? 1600 is no deal for that.

———

$500. Take it or leave it.

#141 heloguy on 05.04.20 at 10:30 am

#95 Toni on 05.03.20 at 9:44 pm

“I sincerely wish I am wrong but I don’t see nothing fun about the demographic and social perspective here.”

-So I guess you’ll be moving to Africa then. Best demographics on the planet (youngest).

MF

Check out Namibia. That’s where I would go.

#142 cramar on 05.04.20 at 10:33 am

I saw on a newsfeed a few days ago something about the cost of housing in GB being forecast to drop 30%. (Cannot find it now.) My first thought was will this happen here?

#143 Stone on 05.04.20 at 10:34 am

Just wanted to make a comment about a vaccine for the coronavirus and the magic 8 ball prognostication that something will be developed in the next 12-18 months.

Like unicorns, it doesn’t exist, nor will it. Ever.

#144 Dharma Bum on 05.04.20 at 10:47 am

Garth –

This guy is using your terminology. Time to issue a cease and desist order?

https://www.arpinvestments.com/arl/five-lessons-from-history-4-5

“Now we are facing the most dramatic economic setback ever – even worse than anything we saw during the great depression of the 1930s.”

“Do you really think rising equity markets can be justified in such circumstances? I am fully aware that the rally is driven by the Fed’s actions and nothing else but, as I see it, what began as a relief rally has turned into a Greater Fool rally.”

Comments?

#145 Figure it Out on 05.04.20 at 10:52 am

“What are the governments thinking??? They must immediately ban cars, and make driving illegal. This is a PANDEMIC, people.”

There’s plenty upside to driving, though. I can get thirty pounds of groceries home in ten minutes on a rainy day without getting wet. Flop doesn’t have to haul around a hundredweight of tools on the bus.

I catch the bug, best case is I have to see a doc who shoves a stick way up my nose, and then I self-isolate for two weeks. Possibility of a severe case, or long term complications. Where’s the upside, aside from not having to worry about catching it anymore… maybe? I’d rather not.

Anyway, I always thought to myself, “boy, if someone invented cigarettes today, governments would ban them. Maybe alcohol, too. Much downside, little upside.” Then vaping came along.

#146 WTF on 05.04.20 at 10:57 am

Ray Dalio with a historical perspective on financial calamities. Quick and illuminating read, written as the virus commenced.

https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/#introduction

#147 Lahdeedah on 05.04.20 at 10:59 am

As I had predicted a few weeks earlier, the private-equity owned retailers who had their viable equity sucked out of them by their PE overlords (aka vampiric parasites) and saddled with crushing debt loads, are now floundering, thanks to being over-leveraged to the hilt. Neiman Marcus, J. Crew, and likely more to follow. Speaking of mismanaging finances and being addicted to massive debt…x10

No such thing as running a balance sheet with extra cash to fall back on, no, that’s what debt is for. Liquid equity is for the PE overlords to snorfle up and “support their lifestyles” with (actual quote).

Private equity: contributes nothing creative or constructive to the world, exists only for their own self-interest and is just a one-way suction of equity into their own pockets. It’s laughable that they expected to get a bail-out.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/business/j-crew-bankruptcy-jcpenney-sears-neiman-marcus-retailers-coronavirus/index.html

#148 The Great White North on 05.04.20 at 11:24 am

Scientist calls lockdown ‘incredibly harmful’ to individuals and economy..

Moreover, data from EuroMOMO, the European Union agency monitoring mortality and aiming to detect excess deaths over seasonal influenza, showed a narrow spike over the recent 2017 high. But that has since returned to within a normal range and below the 2017 peak.

https://i1.wp.com/asiatimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/AllAges.png?w=862&ssl=1

Homburg’s conclusions that the decision to announce a total lockdown on March 23 was made in haste are now supported by numerous epidemiologists and other medical specialists. At the time, he argued that the was not enough adequate data to support the decision or a reliable assessment of the dangers posed by the coronavirus.

Dr Klaus Pueschel, the director of the Institute of Forensic Medicine at Hamburg University, which has conducted more than 150 autopsies of people who had died of the virus, said that 80% of the deceased had prior cardiovascular illnesses. The average age of those examined by the Institute was 80 years.

In numerous interviews on German national television, Pueschel said that “this is not a killer virus” and that the “fear that large numbers will die from it are exaggerated.”

https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/global-virus-lockdown-was-madness/

Next time think if you want to vote for these clowns again.

So, the world governments destroyed the lives of billions of people for nothing..

#149 akashic record on 05.04.20 at 11:48 am

#141 heloguy

With increasing automation, robotics, switching to more sustainable living, the technologically most advanced, low population economies will have economic advantage.

Canada is very slow in innovation, in becoming an over-all high-tech economy. Instead, she is focusing on large number of low wage tax slaves in the GDP.

This epidemic puts the spotlight on just how much economically suicidal this path is.

#150 Stan Brooks on 05.04.20 at 11:52 am

How would you like inflation of necessities of 10-15 % while rates are stuck at 0.25 %, even potentially going negative? Because with some not-so-insignificant probability, it could be coming:


Fears Mount About Inflation Returning With a Vengeance

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/sum-fears-still-t-dispel-060000394.html

BNP Paribas Asset Management, which oversees more than $450 billion, has started building an overweight position in commodities for the first time in four years, while going underweight bonds. Ardea Investment Management, a Sydney-based fixed income asset manager, said it “materially” added inflation exposure from late March after the collapse in market expectations of price growth.

“In terms of tail risks not being focused on, inflation is definitely one of them,” said Gopi Karunakaran, a money manager at Ardea.

Total failure of monetary policy by incompetents and arrogant ignorants for which the most vulnerable will pay again – retirees and savers.

But hey you can get as much as you want cheap crap TVs, those will be deflating and probably will constitute 50 % of the ‘inflation basket of goods and services’.

Here is a site that measures current cost of living in big US cities which is the closest thing to the real inflation.
And no, it is not pretty. More to come.

https://chapwoodindex.com/

Retirees will enjoy generous sub 1 % indexations while savers enjoy ever increasing banking fees with zero (0.0x) interest on term (!) deposits.

Cheers,

#151 BrianT on 05.04.20 at 11:53 am

The MSM is ignoring the fact that the transit systems of Toronto and Montreal cannot function under “social distancing”-it totally goes against the whole model-which is to cram as many people as possible into a small space-the whole plan was to move a lot of people around-which is absolutely impossible under “social distancing”-so what is the plan? To have no functioning transit system for a couple years and then what? Everybody crams together until the next Plandemic?

#152 Do we have all the facts on 05.04.20 at 11:56 am

Who is providing Canadian citizens with an update on the percentage of mortgage debt in Canada held by the Government of Canada through CMHC or the Bank of Canada. Deferral of payments for billions of dollars of mortgages has no impact on financial institutions. Since the creation of government held and government insured mortgage backed securities revenue shortfalls related to insured MBS are being covered by the Government of Canada.

I have yet to see any indication of how the Government of Canada intends to record the total value of deferred mortgage payments attached to their portfolio of MBS.
If the value of the deferred payments plus accrued interest is simply added to the principal as predicted the actual risks faced by many mortgagors will increase.

In the event of future defaults of mortgages within the MBS owned by the Government of Canada shortfalls between the proceeds of foreclosures and the book value of the mortgages could become recorded as accounts payable to the GOC.

As a result 100% of the pain caused by the foreclosure of mortgages within MBS held by the Government of Canada will by felt by the original mortgagors as accounts payable to the GOC are collected in the future.

#153 Yukon Elvis on 05.04.20 at 12:09 pm

#98 The Trudeau Dellema. on 05.03.20 at 9:59 pm

Anyway I am considering gifting her the difference between what she would make at Stupid Store and the $1250 to have her stay home and stay safe. What would you do?
…………………….

Same.

#154 Trojan House on 05.04.20 at 12:15 pm

#148 The Great White North on 05.04.20 at 11:24 am

Yes, exactly. Dr. Knut Wittkowski and Dr. David Katz are saying the same things yet all we are STILL hearing about is how the virus is going to kill everyone if we don’t remained locked down and social distance. And people are buying it and remain as fearful as ever.

When is the MSM going to start reporting alternate views? They are supposed to be objective yet they are more interested in keeping the scare going in order to attract eyeballs to their channels.

#155 John on 05.04.20 at 12:33 pm

#143 Stone

You should let Trudeau know he just gave 850 million away of our tax money towards finding a vaccine for a virus that continues to mutate.

You’ve possibly seen this link, it’s Microsoft’s patent for nano technology microchipping it can be administered with a vaccine and is ready to go.

It has multiple applications such as commerce, medical information, passport, almost anything, it’s accessible via scanning.

https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2020060606

#156 JB on 05.04.20 at 12:33 pm

Major real estate boards (Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver) report their April numbers this week. They will be a disaster. Big headlines. As of last week there was a decline of 81% in condo sales across the GTA and a 79% dip in 416. Detached sales were down 69% in Toronto. Showings/appointments are averaging 30 a day, compared to a normal 130. But broker Stephen Glaysher says, optimistically, “We have reached the bottom of the market.”
…………………………………………………………………….
81% decline on CONDO sales is only the beginning in the GTA, what about the sales that are currently in flux and these investors are up to their proverbial armpits in a negative cash flow position. Majors capital losses come to the owners and investors.

#157 Don Guillermo on 05.04.20 at 12:39 pm

#153 Yukon Elvis on 05.04.20 at 12:09 pm
#98 The Trudeau Dellema. on 05.03.20 at 9:59 pm
Anyway I am considering gifting her the difference between what she would make at Stupid Store and the $1250 to have her stay home and stay safe. What would you do?
…………………….
Same
***************************************
She has zero risk at her age taking this job but you will create a life long lazy Liberal. Nice.

#158 Deplorable Dude on 05.04.20 at 12:48 pm

#141 BrianT..”
The MSM is ignoring the fact that the transit systems of Toronto and Montreal cannot function under “social distancing”-it totally goes against the whole model”

No mass transit system can work with social distancing. Imagine the line up to board a plane! Would be over a Km long. The London Tube, NYC subway! Never gonna happen.

There is almost no science backing up these arbitary distancing rules.

We need some common sense rules here, not knee jerk puesdo science that keeps changing.

We need to accept that it’s mainly the elderly and those that have pre existing conditions that are at risk. Our response should be targeted at those groups.

#159 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 12:57 pm

#98 The Trudeau Dellema. on 05.03.20 at 9:59 pm

…if she takes the job the student relief stuff gets scaled back. She say “well I get $2 over minimum wage danger pay”. But I say “yes but you have to deduct $1250 from your paycheck. You’ll be working for much less than minimum wage.”

You see here the problem with bailouts? Does anyone get it?

Anyway I am considering gifting her the difference between what she would make at Stupid Store and the $1250 to have her stay home and stay safe. What would you do?

——————

The pogey has turned regular people into welfare cases. Work and lose the pogey, or don’t work?

I’m always in favour of kids working, since they learn a lot from work. It’s good life preparation.

My son is home from university and we are employing him full time in housepainting and general maintenance. It’s his decision as to whether he applies for pogey on top of his cash job.

#160 april on 05.04.20 at 12:58 pm

#139 – your comparing apples with oranges… THINK!

#161 Ronaldo on 05.04.20 at 1:05 pm

#158 Deplorable Dude

We need to accept that it’s mainly the elderly and those that have pre existing conditions that are at risk. Our response should be targeted at those groups.
————————————————————
Exactly. They majorly screwed up didn’t they?

#162 Faron on 05.04.20 at 1:15 pm

113 Cherry Nameit on 05.04.20 at 1:53 am

I watched the new Jeff Gibbs doc (Michael Moore produced it). I’m a greenie however hypocritical. They made some good points that there is a serious problem with global population, climate, climate change and resource degredation. I also appreciated that they made the point that there is no such thing as a free lunch. It takes energy to make energy producing solar, wind, geothermal and other renewable energy types.

They were wrong in drawing an equivalence between green technologies and coal or gas burning power sources in terms of CO2 production. Depending on your source of data, the amount of carbon it takes to mine materials for and manufacture a wind turbine is covered in 1/100th of a wind turbine’s lifetime. If a good turbine lasts 20 or 30 years, it takes a few months to offset the carbon. In time that will go down as renewable energy becomes a larger mix in the grid. For solar it’s 1/20th. For nuclear it’s 1/50th or so. They used way outdated numbers and even much of the footage was archaic (note the 3:4 aspect ratio of computer monitors in some of the scenes. Those died 15 years ago).

They didn’t say much about wind because they know it’s a non-starter. Wind power is cheap.

That electric cars in some areas are powered by fossil fuel burning is true in some places (not BC or Quebec) but is missing the point for two reasons. One, a small engine is waaaaaay less efficient than a large power station that, through profit motive and regulation aims to be as efficient as possible. Second, electric cars are part of the transition. Nobody ever said they were the end solution.

About the corporate corruption. Well, is anyone surprised? When a profitable industry comes up to replace the ultra corrupt oil and gas industry, some of that dirty money is going to flow to the new industry. People are greedy and corporate lobbying and pocket lining is always going to be around. That doesn’t make Al Gore’s movie incorrect.

#163 Spacc on 05.04.20 at 1:25 pm

Just to preface my hunch with a grain of salt, I’m not in the 1%, and detached from the bottom 50%, but I think it will be a global cabin fever itch that people will need to scratch. Those like me who do not travel within US/Canada, will either experiment doing so or just resume travelling to Europe, S. America, etc.
Not to mention that travelling will probably now be a slightly bigger status symbol than before (due to more precarious financial situatinos) causing more people to extend themselves to treat themselves or to be able to name drop foreign places.

#164 Faron on 05.04.20 at 1:26 pm

158 Deplorable Dude on 05.04.20 at 12:48 pm

#141 BrianT..”

There is almost no science backing up these arbitary distancing rules.

—————————————-

Wrong:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30190-0/fulltext

—————————————-

“We need some common sense rules here, not knee jerk puesdo science that keeps changing.”

Common sense *IS* pseudo science. Real evidence based science will always undergo change. Any decent scientist will update their results as soon as new information comes in. Common sense is saying stuff like “don’t count your chickens before they hatch” even though poultry farmers will model exactly how many chickens they will get from a brood and what their profit will be based on those projections and the price of meat. If they used “common sense” they would bumble around in the dark.

“Our response should be targeted at those groups.”

So either take away their freedom of movement and put them at greater risk by raising the number of people commiunicable at any one time by throwing out social distancing? Or just throw them under the bus so you can hang out in your hippy drum circle? And right were the same people who decried Obamacare because of the “death panels” that were never a thing to begin with.

Do you care for your elders or not? Sounds like not.

#165 Faron on 05.04.20 at 1:33 pm

139 Dharma Bum on 05.04.20 at 10:03 am

This message brought to you by the Society Of Paranoid Soccer Moms, and the Fear Mongering Association of Irresponsible Vote Buying Politicians.

——————————————————–

Your line of thinking (read: repitition of your fave right leaning media source) has been thoroughly debunked. The simplest way is to look at excess deaths and note that the hundreds of thousands that have died are above and beyond the already existing death rates and have nothing to do with personal choice. This has also been batted back and forth here ad nauseum. You aren’t convincing anyone one way or the other at this point. Polarization has been achieved.

SOPSM and FMAIVBP: your societies need better acronyms.

#166 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 1:38 pm

#164 Faron on 05.04.20 at 1:26 pm
—-

You do know there were 650,000 flu deaths on the planet last year and that’s with a vaccine.

Did you lock granny up last yr.

If the economy doesn’t open up, granny will be the least of your concerns.

#167 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 1:41 pm

Keep it coming. More of this. Open up:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/us-coronavirus-restrictions-continue-to-loosen-after-a-weekend-of-recreation-and-protest/ar-BB13zOo5?ocid=spartanntp

#168 Mattl on 05.04.20 at 1:42 pm

FWIW, in the Okanagan people seem to be going about their business. The local take out burger stand was hopping on Friday and the Rail Trail had tons of people out. Dropped into HD to return a tool – line up was too long so went to Crappy Tire and they were busy as well. Farmers market opened and was busy.

No indication that people are hiding under their bed in Kelowna. Looking forward to getting back to normal – time to reopen Retail.

#169 Attrition on 05.04.20 at 1:47 pm

Anyone who still thinks this is about a virus or about keeping people safe is totally naive.

Seriously, wake up.

Forget the R-naughts for a minute, ignore the vaccine false promises, and stop watching infection/fatality counters on every screen.

Those are all distractions.

dis·trac·tion
/dəˈstrakSH(ə)n/
noun

1. a thing that prevents someone from giving full attention to something else.

The only question we should be asking is what is the something else we’re not supposed to give our full attention to?

I don’t have an answer, but I do know this is the right question to ask, and the only question worth focusing on–especially as an investor.

Usually, following capital provides clues.

Usually.

#170 RobL on 05.04.20 at 1:53 pm

#122 Do we have all the facts

Canada’s Life expectancy currently is 82.96. Hong Kong has the highest at 85.29

50 years ago it was 73 in Canada.

#171 april on 05.04.20 at 1:59 pm

#85 – not believable.

#172 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.04.20 at 2:03 pm

@144 Dharma Bum:

Don’t give them any ideas…

#173 Lambchop on 05.04.20 at 2:22 pm

#155 John on 05.04.20

You’ve possibly seen this link, it’s Microsoft’s patent for nano technology microchipping it can be administered with a vaccine and is ready to go.

It has multiple applications such as commerce, medical information, passport, almost anything, it’s accessible via scanning.

https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2020060606

_____________________

If this comes to pass, I have every confidence that Neo will save us. I will not be a crypto-mining battery.

#174 Faron on 05.04.20 at 2:23 pm

#166 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 1:38 pm

#164 Faron on 05.04.20 at 1:26 pm
—-

“You do know there were 650,000 flu deaths on the planet last year and that’s with a vaccine.”

I like enumerating, so let me enumerate this for you.

First, that number is wrong, so no I don’t “know” it other than knowing it’s incorrect. That’s flu plus pneumonia. Not all pneumonia is flu, thus the flu deaths are lower.

Second, that number is modelled not counted. If you believe it you have to believe SARS-CoV-2 projections and the grave tone that people who make those projections take. You have to then take as fact that the massive projected deaths with no measures in place would have been correct. Not to mention economically devastating in their own way as even more people cowered in fear than are doing so now.

Third, flu is a known enemy. Much less infectious, much less deadly and you have antibodies to many flu strains which is why even in a bad year, you may not get it.

Fourth, when a disaster occurs that kills a Jr. Hockey team do you shrug off those deaths as a small fraction of the flu deaths? No, death is death and at any age it’s tragic when unexpected. 250,000 on top of the typical numbers is still a 250,000 people dead and that number is still climbing.

Fifth, you can’t compare the death rates of an unchecked disease with the deaths of a disease for which we took extreme measures.

“Did you lock granny up last yr.”

No, both of my grandmothers are dead.

“If the economy doesn’t open up, granny will be the least of your concerns.”

I agree in the sense that the stalled economy is wreaking all kinds of hell that will reverberate for half a decade. That’s a fact at this point. I agree that it sucks balls. I still have a job, but I know that in a year or two I very well may be putting a resume out into a very unforgiving job market.

Those who want to open up now aren’t being strong and revolutionary by being in the minority of people that do despite all evidence and consequences. You are being ignorant, naive and wasteful by proposing that we undo all the hard work and sacrifice that has been done to keep numbers where they are by opening up and risking another spike that will further scare people, kill people and cause folks to stay in and cause those businesses shrivel anyway. Opening up too quickly wont gain you anything other than an empty office/store/restaurant to socially isolate in. By toeing that line you are being at least as much of a sheepperson as you probably think I am.

I’m sorry that the provincial health officers use real and complicated words and sound competent in a way that you don’t relate to. There’s always trump whose utterances from the ID will resonate with you. Keep yourself in the echo chamber of dolts. Good luck.

#175 Faron on 05.04.20 at 2:37 pm

#98 The Trudeau Dellema. on 05.03.20 at 9:59 pm

“You see here the problem with bailouts? Does anyone get it?”

If people do not want to go back to work because minimum + $2 is less than the dole, then the price being paid for low-wage labour is too low. If the gov’t sets a base rate, then if employers want to have workers they have to beat that rate. This simply means minimum wage has to meet basic needs and expenses which it doesn’t in many large cities in Canada. Pay more, you will have workers. Margins too thin to pay more? You have to ask how much offshoring production has caused payable wages to fall.

#176 Toronto_CA on 05.04.20 at 2:42 pm

God Faron your condescension is so irritating. You do realise, there are a large and growing number of scientists who question the lockdowns that are far more educated on the matter than you or I?

It could be that history will judge Sweden as being incredibly smart in how they handled this. It may turn out the other way, but we don’t know yet. Talking like we do know is foolish. Particularly as study after study shows that the number of actual cases out there is a huge multiple of the confirmed cases, and potentially large % of the population had the virus without knowing it before the lockdowns started. History will tell. Not you.

I wish Garth had a block feature so that I could avoid seeing your daily dose of condescension and assumptions-used-as-facts wisdom.

#177 Ben on 05.04.20 at 2:49 pm

We recently moved into our SFH that we bought / closed in January in west side vancouver.

We bought because our growing family needed a space bigger than our townhouse.

At that time the market in Vancouver had gone down quite a bit. West side homes were down 20-30% from peak.

We bought with 75% down and only because I did not want to take money out of my corporation and pay taxes on it.

My advice is to buy only with a significant downpayment (more than 50%, higher for more expensive properties) and only if you have a significant amount of reserve (we have 2 million in reserves invested in bonds and stocks even after the melt down) in assets that are easily liquidatable. With the tax structure here it is very hard to service mortgages of over 1 million regardless of how much you make due to the fact that the government wants your money.

And above all, don’t rely on “rental income”. The government will always pass laws in favor of tenants. And forget about “investment properties”.

#178 Henry Makow on 05.04.20 at 2:50 pm

DELETED

#179 S on 05.04.20 at 3:00 pm

#174 Faron on 05.04.20 at 2:23 pm
#166 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 1:38 pm

Here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

#180 maxx on 05.04.20 at 3:01 pm

@ #4

Cash may be eclipsed from time to time, however it is and always will be, King.

#181 maxx on 05.04.20 at 3:15 pm

@ #12

Saving is the correct reaction, imho. We have never stopped, however now we are also saving more. Saving is not deprivation if you know where to get stuff cheap. It is like getting a bargain on the one hand, and buying yourself another gift, only the second is waaay bigger, liquid and a universal key to getting anything your heart desires down the road.

Save here, get a huge gift there. Love it.

Last week, I scored a genuine Chanel resin cuff (vintage, from the 90s) for $50 loonie bucks. This identical cuff, with embedded tag, sells for $2109.12 loonie bucks.

https://www.1stdibs.com/jewelry/bracelets/cuff-bracelets/chanel-resin-cc-black-white-wide-cuff-bracelet/id-v_9174482/

Look around you dawgs……you can stretch your money crazy far. If you really want to.

Time has come to get your fair share of value.

Saving is 99% of the fun.

#182 not 1st on 05.04.20 at 3:20 pm

#174 Faron on 05.04.20 at 2:23 pm

You clearly do not understand what the economy actually is. Its an abstraction to you probably because you are working in some capacity far removed from its core.

I work in the core of the economy providing basic essentials to all humans and I will tell you, we will be damn lucky to avoid a famine this yr if this continues.

#183 SoggyShorts on 05.04.20 at 3:30 pm

#112 akashic record on 05.04.20 at 12:25 am
Michael Moore’s latest documentary is an unexpected eye-opener.
*******
Haven’t seen it yet myself, but I read that it was taken down after several experts pointed out how badly researched and sourced the data was in the film.

#184 John on 05.04.20 at 3:49 pm

# 173 Lambchop

Neo’s currently social distancing.

#185 Don Guillermo on 05.04.20 at 4:13 pm

#183 SoggyShorts on 05.04.20 at 3:30 pm
#112 akashic record on 05.04.20 at 12:25 am
Michael Moore’s latest documentary is an unexpected eye-opener.
*******
Haven’t seen it yet myself, but I read that it was taken down after several experts pointed out how badly researched and sourced the data was in the film
***************************************
Yes, my cousins neighbours best friend’s sister said she didn’t like it either. They said she was an expert.

#186 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 4:17 pm

#180 maxx on 05.04.20 at 3:01 pm

Cash may be eclipsed from time to time, however it is and always will be, King.

—————–

Hmmmm…

How about ‘cash is king when it is, but it’s not when it’s not’ ?

It is always worth remembering that cash is a human-accepted concept and countless currencies have lost all value.

I’d say that cash is a concept and timeless assets are king. Cash can be a help in gaining those.

Assets include: geographic location, knowledge, recession-proof skills, influence, self-sufficiency, the willingness to take action.

#187 Faron on 05.04.20 at 4:17 pm

#176 Toronto_CA on 05.04.20 at 2:42 pm

You could just keep on scrollin’. Think of it like hunting for stations on the FM dial when you are travelling. Oh crap, christian rock… Anyhow, glad you tuned in!

#188 Faron on 05.04.20 at 4:22 pm

#185 Don Guillermo on 05.04.20 at 4:13 pm

#183 SoggyShorts on 05.04.20 at 3:30 pm
#112 akashic record on 05.04.20 at 12:25 am

So, for the record, you are saying that you understand that climate change is real and a real problem?!

#189 Don Guillermo on 05.04.20 at 4:37 pm

#188 Faron on 05.04.20 at 4:22 pm
#185 Don Guillermo on 05.04.20 at 4:13 pm
#183 SoggyShorts on 05.04.20 at 3:30 pm
#112 akashic record on 05.04.20 at 12:25 am
So, for the record, you are saying that you understand that climate change is real and a real problem?!
*****************************************

Anyone that watched the documentary would know that it wasn’t denying climate change

#190 Sail away on 05.04.20 at 4:54 pm

Here’s the Corvid performance to date for the portfolios of ‘Canada’s Warren Buffett’ Prem Watsa vs. Warren Buffett himself.

Prem Watsa’s FFH: -44%
Buffett’s BRK: -22%

I’ll stick with the original.

#191 Jansrant on 05.04.20 at 5:12 pm

#115
Your right on the money, if we dont make way for the next generation of workers things are going to become very unpleasant. People need to work, have mo eh left over to invest and grow their families. We have two over 40 millennials in our family. They have no hope and probably borderline depressed or worse.
I was in the store the other day and was offered a senior discount. Pass it along to the next generation, I don’t need it, they do.

#192 Uncle Charlie on 05.04.20 at 10:55 pm

Possible good news re: COVID

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/groundbreaking-discovery-of-antibody-which-prevents-infection/ar-BB13AyKM?ocid=spartandhp#image=BBZeIyF|3

———————————————

#112 akashic record on 05.04.20 at 12:25 am
Michael Moore’s latest documentary is an unexpected eye-opener.
*******
Haven’t seen it yet myself, but I read that it was taken down after several experts pointed out how badly researched and sourced the data was in the film.

Over 6 Million views and counting. If it IS taken down it won’t be because of badly researched/sourced data. I wouldn’t comment on it unless you’ve actually watched it …

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE

#193 James on 05.05.20 at 8:02 am

#155 John on 05.04.20 at 12:33 pm

#143 Stone

You should let Trudeau know he just gave 850 million away of our tax money towards finding a vaccine for a virus that continues to mutate.

You’ve possibly seen this link, it’s Microsoft’s patent for nano technology microchipping it can be administered with a vaccine and is ready to go.

It has multiple applications such as commerce, medical information, passport, almost anything, it’s accessible via scanning.

https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2020060606

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I read the patent information. I did not see anything to indicate that this was “nanotechnology” intended for injection into people. It specifically stated that this would be wearable technology.

Where did you see nanotechnology/injection mentioned?

#194 JB on 05.05.20 at 1:07 pm

Its a good thing Smoking Man that you returned to Canada for your professional health care treatments and palliative care. We do have world class hospitals here and lead in Cancer treatment. The view from out west doesn’t look too good with Covid-19. Contracting a virus like this while under treatment is very risky. This is just the one county alone in California. Besides its always better to be around friends and family for support during any crises. Keep safe!

https://patch.com/california/newportbeach/covid-19/2020-05-05

#195 Tim on 05.07.20 at 12:33 pm

“Most Canadians think they’ll probably get the bug and, if they do, die. The stats tell us under 1% are infected and 96% of those have mild symptoms.”

Leaving aside that 1% are infected CURRENTLY…

So, 4% have serious enough symptoms to have to be hospitalized and on the order of half a percent to one percent die.

Imagine someone offered you a game of Russian roulette with a special revolver with two hundred chambers in it. 192 of the chambers are empty. Seven have a special bullet that won’t kill you but will send you to the hospital for weeks and maybe screw up your organs permanently. One chamber, a bullet that will kill you slowly over several weeks.

What payoff would it take for you to play that game? Me, I don’t know that there’s a pot big enough, but it would definitely have to be orders of magnitude bigger than my current salary.

You don’t gamble with stuff you can’t afford to lose.

Silly analogy. The risk cannot be completely eliminated. Ever. – Garth