The dichotomy continues. The market goes up. The economy goes down. A lot of folks, understandably, don’t get it. They want black. They want white. Some even hate me
Like Matty, who sent this anguished note after yesterday’s post on some of the things to expect post-virus:
It’s actually incredible the amount of two-faced garbage you spew sometimes Garth. One day you make it seem like the pandemic is a temporary blip then you show how much of a fear mongering, view-grabbing blog poster you are. I’ve followed your blog religiously for the past several years, and while you’ve given some great advice, your approach to navigating this pandemic has been dismal at best. If you can’t see for yourself how conflicting your posts have been, I’m not sure anyone will be able to convince you otherwise.
Well, there’s a reason. This blog is a daily version of history. If we were dealing with something static, defined and distasteful, like a Drake video, analysis would be easy. But this is a virus. The first global pandemic of our lifetimes. And we have a questionable crop of leaders feeling their way through it. Suddenly the economy is being run by doctors while politicians are trying to be public health officials. The future’s messy. Nobody ever before has turned off the entire economy. Or tried then to turn it on again.
But Matty boy is right. When talking about financial assets, markets and portfolios, this blog has told you to be confident, hold tight and expect a reasonable result. When it comes to the economy and its impact on most people, it’s a far different story. So, why?
On one hand, the world’s a mess. There are now 30 million Americans on, or applying for, government largesse. The true number of unemployed is believed to be copiously higher. This is approaching 1930s Grapes of Wrath levels. In Canada, as noted, eight million are out of work and on the dole – which is unprecedented. Shut companies, idled workers and locked-down shoppers are gutting government revenues, as public spending soars. The Parliamentary Budget Office on Thursday confirmed the federal deficit will be the largest in history. By miles. Over $252 billion – ten times the pre-bug prediction. Mr. Trudeau will go down in history for that alone.
More mess. Only one in ten small businesses apparently qualify for federal rent relief, and four in ten will not reopen. By the way, mom-and-pops employ about eight million people, or 70% of the Canadian workforce. The GDP may decline by 25% in the second quarter of 2020 and unemployment in both Canada and the States will hit 15% or greater. Some say 30%. Corporate earnings will be ugly. Analysts estimate S&P companies will see profits decline by 34%. That’s double the last estimate of a couple of weeks ago.
We could go on. Dairy farmers are suddenly hit because all the restaurants and hotels are shut. Movers are idled because people aren’t buying and selling houses. People with Airbnb properties, hotels, tour companies, cruise lines or fishing lodges, are freaking out. Distributors are being crushed since there’s little demand for jet fuel. YVR just laid off an army of people. Shell has cut its dividend for the first time since the Second World War. Oil companies are bleeding big. Former deputy PM John Manley, a major Lib insider, says it’ll take ten years to get over Covid.
There’s no point sugarcoating any of this. It sucks. The longer things stay closed the longer and more difficult the recovery. Much will never be the same. Less bank branches. Hoardings along Main Street. Way fewer flights (and more costly seats). Structural unemployment and deficits along with tax increases.
In the new world many people won’t work again. Some companies will blow up. Whole sectors will shrink. Offices will close. Cities change. The points made yesterday were not to monger fear or grab views, but to probe how an unknown event might rock our world. If nothing else, the virus has exposed how vulnerable and victimized a nation of house-lusty, over-leveraged and financially illiterate grasshoppers we are. No savings, no reserves and no ability to last just a few weeks without a paycheque. Did you think so many lived so close to the edge? Is it not time to change?
But as all of the above unfolded, Mr. Market has held another theme. That gauge of fear, the Vix, has collapsed by 60%. The gauge of confidence, the equity market, has jumped 32% from the lows of late March. This despite the virus carving a hole in the economy and corporate earnings while hobbling governments and throwing millions out of work.
Investors with balanced and diversified portfolios saw a plop of 15% or more when the pandemic bit, but have regained most of their losses – now off just a few points. As tough as it might be to grasp when looking at the social carnage, markets absorbed and reflected Covid’s impact and now anticipate recovery. Pandemics are temporary. Like Kevin O’Leary or Svend Robinson they just go away if you wait long enough. Better things emerge.
And, of course, markets are being buoyed as never before by runaway fiscal and monetary policy. All those trillions in government spending and bond purchases along with crashed interest rates pour liquidity into the economy, make financing cheap and bail out corporate losers. This week the Fed boss said the central bank’s “full range of tools” would be used to prop things up and, “we will do it to the absolute limit of those powers.” So this is why the S&P is ahead 13% in a single month.
More to come. There will be volatility. Expect some brutal days. But those who ignore their properly-weighted portfolios will do just fine, even as the virus tortures millions and tears down their standard of living. This is the reckoning many thought would someday come. It’s here. In the loins of a germ.
As with the rest of life, the outcome is unfair.
255 comments ↓
Send know-it-all Matty to Mexico.
Terrible tragedy unfolding for a specific Mexican group. They could use Matty.
“The crisis is harming not only international drug smuggling but also other sectors of the narco economy. As state-imposed lockdowns force people to stay at home, the cartels will soon find themselves unable to stage kidnappings for ransom. Meanwhile, the fact that most businesses are shut will mean they will not be able to make much money from extortion. Furthermore, the declining oil and gas prices and the tanking economy will make petrol smuggling, another important income source for the cartels, significantly less profitable. ”
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/coronavirus-narcotics-drug-cartels-survive-covid-19-200427131004141.html
There will be an uprising and revolution against all of this, starting on Monday, May 4th.
Be there.
Okay that was dark Garth…I don’t see it in my neighborhood in toontown went for a bike ride with the kids all I saw was homes getting major renos and new Dodge trucks. Everybody seemed chill and happy on a nice day.
I have definitely noticed you seem to be back and forth between doom and optimism a lot, though his wording was more harsh than it needed to be. Lighten up a bit, Matt. As always, thank you for continued advice, Garth. Stay healthy!
“The Parliamentary Budget Office on Thursday confirmed the federal deficit will be the largest in history.” That’s true in absolute terms, but not as a percentage of the economy. Federal program expenditures exceeded 40% during World War 2 (maybe this is the type of statement Matty is referring to?)
The largest in dollar terms, bar none. And there’s no war. – Garth
On another, more productive note, Garth, I think programs like CERB are doing a magnificent job of spotlighting the black/dark economy.
‘In Canada, as noted, eight million are out of work and on the dole – which is unprecedented.’
I know several people who have either not sent in recent tax returns or have never, their entire lives (I am 50s), declared their full incomes. THEY have taken the CERB.
This CERB is driving entirely new number sets – people who have not been showing in the official data, such as national average income, rates of employment, etc.
The data scientists are having a field day with all this, one hopes.
And the CRA will bulge with data chasers for years.
And out comes director Michael Moore with yet another very controversial film:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE
“Climate change experts” are requesting that this film be censored, removed, banned, etc. Which means it is probably worth watching:
https://globalnews.ca/news/6881814/climate-expert-denounces-michael-moore-doc/
Perhaps there are just too many of us?
If COVID-19 had happened in the 1960s, the response would probably have been “let it rip” and oh well, Granny has had a good long life, she had to go sometime.
But we are in the age of virtue. “I am more virtuous than you are, and therefore I am going to cancel culture you!”
On top of that heap of virtue we have Donald, the unassailable. A teflon virtue-hacker. Breaks every rule of political correct speech, virtue signalling and yet nothing every happens to him.
He even seems to be immune to COVID-19. Is he from outer space? Many think so.
Donald’s greatest crime? He offends people when he talks.
Oh well. Perhaps the real virus is that we have all just become too gosh darn sensitive.
It’s a choice to read this blog. Don’t like it, don’t read it. I appreciate the good content and some fun opinions. Best of all no advertisements! The info here carries a different weight.
Thanks Garth
The economy will eventually recover, at least to some degree. What concerns me is that the grimness of this new life with covid will persist after recovery. Prosperity does bring a sense of joy, but real prosperity may not return in a working lifetime
Things are getting serious Garth. I think you should consider putting the link to The Automatic Earth back on the homepage of your blog.
Haters gonna hate.
Dicks like Matty aren’t worthy of measured responses, imo. What he’s really saying is:
“Thanks for the years of posting free advice that I agree with, but now that you’ve posted stuff that my small mind find conflicting, I’m going to lash out because I’m an entitled, spoiled WebRat who contributes nothing, expects everything and complains endlessly because I can.”
Perhaps he forgets you’re human, and despite the abs’n beard, expects machine-like, algorithmic perfection and consistency–for free, of course.
While I agree that your posts fluctuate between slightly positive to cautiously negative (as in all outlooks), I also find they fluctuate from leftish to almost rightish, from majestically witty to droll, and from too short to not quite long enough.
But they’re never dull or baleful, and are always highly anticipated, as you know.
Variety, Matty, the spice of life, even on an old icon’s blog.
I see happy people sitting on lawn chairs and having “long distance” conversations with neighbors, things I’ve never seen before, but these are wealthy neighborhoods.
The truth is ugly Matty.
Deal with it.
“But this is a virus. The first global pandemic of our lifetimes.”
Actually, no. Every year we face a global pandemic. It’s called the Flu. And it’s starting to look like this years pandemic wasn’t much deadlier than the last.
I talked to a moister a while ago.
He was eager beyond reason to buy a house in Toronto so that he could “be a Millionaire like all of his friends.”
When I tried to inject a little reason to the convo, as in…what happens if there is a market downturn, what happens if you lose your job, what if interest rates rise, etc.
He replied in a condescending tone, something along the lines of (and I am paraphrasing here):
“That’s the way YOUR generation saw things. We have a new and smarter way of looking at financial matters so step aside and let us run things properly like your generation failed to do.”
Sure wish I had that guys contact info.
It would be interesting to hear how things are going for him now.
US Fed Chairman’s view on shape of recovery: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-powell-analysi-idUSKBN22C1MU
Intersting comments from Matt. I’ve been following this blog for years as well and found the underlying advice and message pretty consistent since I started reading. That, along with a sprinkling colorful commentary that tends to drift about, is why I keep coming back.
Garth isn’t our father, he’s just a guy who writes an entertaining blog.
Thanks again Garth
While I agree your posts do seem to bounce between a positive outlook and then negative. I have come to appreciate your thoughts which are like a crossword, you need to get in the posters head.
First I believe you post and say hang on things will be better not tomorrow or the next month but in the future.
And a while back you said it will depend when we all go back to work, forget the noise.
For both the markets and the virus.
Second your negative posts meaning here are the risks right now that affect post one.
Meaning you have been informed of the risks!
Again it’s just noise.
Problem is this is the internet and people cannot figure it out.
Bottom line Garths priority as stated many times is to help people, it’s sad that we want everything sugar coated and figured out so we can sleep easy.
So bottom line is when do you need the money and then this affects your investment decisions.
My most famous advice was to a women 6 months ago she said I cannot stand the market fluctuations I have anxiety attacks.
My solution how much money do you need for two years?
Put that into cash and leave the rest invested because in two years your portfolio will smooth over the ups and downs.
Anyway she was and is extremely grateful no more noise no more worries.
So Garth I am very grateful for your posts without them I was depressed and you voice rings in my head, stay calm stay invested this will pass.
Thank you.
Well…the commie millennial’s are getting what they want, this is socialism…enjoy standing in the breadlines when it’s -30C in January! We will never pay off this debt…but what happens when the whole world does this? No more vacations, travel, entertainment, etc for the masses…only the wealthy will get to enjoy these luxuries. Deflation is coming, then hyper-inflation. Look up Weimar Germany if you’d like a preview for what’s to come.
Replacing income earned by participating in a viable economy with income generated by the assumption of government debt is a short term strategy implemented with fingers an toes crossed.
What seem to be occurring without any input from those citizens who will feel future pain is a structural change in the Canadian economy.
Worldwide demand for out natural resources may never reach pre 2020 levels again. All levels of government across Canada will see taxation revenues decline and debt servicing costs increase. The domino effect within a service based economy will increase unemployment as disposal income shrinks with each passing day.
Canada desperately needs to shift gears and find a more active role in the global market place. If our government does change their focus they may be left at the starting gate when the real competition for survival begins.
Today Justin Trudeau announces that effective May 4th, all citizens must remove both hands in order to combat the virus. At a press conference he announced the measures as necessary to save lives. “Hands touching things are the single largest contributor to the spread of the virus. I’ve always stated that my number one priority is to reduce the number of deaths caused by COVID19, and we have determined that this is the next necessary step to meet those goals”.
Citizens will be provided an array of stainless steel attachments that can be used for necessary trades, which can be removed and sterilized. The prime minister also stated “All shopping is transitioning to online delivery models and most technology can be controlled through voice activation, so the use of your hands have become an outdated concept in our time, and will only serve to spread more germs. After a transition period I feel most people wont even notice”,
Mandatory surgeries will be scheduled starting immediately, and is expected to create upwards of 5000 jobs.
#212 Captain Uppa on 04.29.20 at 9:48 pm
I am waiting for the “why I chose Lunenburg” post.
………………………………
Lunenberg….Atlantic ocean….Tug boat….Big fog horn….Gilligan’s Island….The Howells….Big money….Compounding for decades….Big commissions….Ginger and Maryanne….Lonely…Hawt….
Now you know.
GArtH dUDE, is iT StiLl 4:20??!!??
WOw hAVe I beEN HIGh foR twO WeEKS oR sumPIN?
ThesE muST be GReat TIMEs.
cHilL eveRBUDDy!!
Some people hate having their rose coloured glasses ripped off lol – reality can be so real it burns your eyes. Keep up the good work Garth.
Where do you see the real estate market in Vancouver Island going over the next 6-12 months?
Gotta say, I agree with some of Matty’s comments. I’ve also read your blog for years. The vast majority of it enjoyable and valuable, but I do commonly recognize contradictory statements on given subjects over time. The pandemic is another example.
Did you miss the part about this being daily history? Things change. Deal with it. – Garth
My friends at the flat earth society mentioned that this virus has so many members stressed out that it is pushing them over the edge.
“And, of course, markets are being buoyed as never before by runaway fiscal and monetary policy.”
It’s a runaway bull market in moral hazard. Will there ever come a time when folks realize that the unprecedented conjuring of trillion$ out of thin air by central banks has not been an unalloyed blessing? And what happens to markets if they do?
For sure, there is at least one force mightier than any central bank: Social Unrest. Pretty hard to concentrate on your portfolio when rioting is going on outside…
Thanks again Garth,
You are one of the few that actually have the courage to say it as it is. For a virus to do so much in such a short period of time should indicate just how fragile our civilization happens to be. Simply, the more complex the society the bigger the fall.
If anything should be remembered after Ms. Covid moves on is that we are China cups in a tea shop and when we drop, the aftermath is disastrous. Our civilization has just gotten too complex to sustain itself. But, where do we go as going back to the good old days is long behind.
Must admit there is a lot of mixed messages in my city. Sure restaurants are not “sitting” people but they are very busy with takeout. Literally have to call ahead 2 days in some cases to secure your order.
My street is crazy busy with Reno’s, pavement projects and landscaping.
I called my car dealer to book an appointment: “we are very busy….no appointment until 19th May”
My best friend of the last 20 years is a manager at the local Home Depot: “We are busier than we have been in years…can barely keep up”
I have a hard time envisioning the doom and gloom you just outlined there Garth.
But….I’m no expert….just some observations in my locale.
actually FEAR is the pandemic of our times and it’s a DOOZY
And there are too damn many people on this rock
I think two huge problems looming on the horizon are.
1- Dishonest workers staying home and further taxing either employers or the bailout gods.
This will have a trickle down or should I say tsunami down effect on the tax payers.
2-Restaurants are proposing reopening under the guise of temperature checks.
Temperature checks won’t work with asymptotic carriers who are still contagious.
Herd immunity is the end game.
Everyone will eventually be exposed.
It’s an unfortunate fact and there will a substantial death toll.
And if it turns out that it was created in a lab and has gain of function characteristics then that makes things far worse in a few ways.
#114 Pete from St. Cesaire on 04.29.20 at 5:34 pm
Come for the Blog and stay for the occasional gem in the comments pile.
We are hitting the abundance threshold; we have already realized “Infinite Goods” with software and entertainment.
I was first introduced to this possibility based on the Star Trek Economy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQQYbKT_rMg
We are on the path where all the stuff you need will be produced by 20% of the people, with everyone else having no economic role but that of consumers.
Traditionalists will rail agianst those lazy SOB’s but the choice is Dystopia and exponential horrors of the 20th century or a UBI.
Already the Kids are blowing their brains and finances out on education to land a sketchy precariat career.
This whole financial disaster reminds me of an off shore fishing trip I went on while holidaying on the Cook island of Aitutaki.
One minute it’s calm and the beer is flowing.
And then before you can believe it we are in 30 foot swells and the puke is flying.
Should one feel “survivors remorse” when a person is liquid and capable of taking advantage of this economic tsunami? Many great businesses will be available for practically nothing. I feel bad about the victims for their suffering and failure. Sigh….what to do?
History vs the News
I would respectfully point out that “daily” stuff is only the news, which you do an admirable job of addressing. History is the accumulation of days, best looked backward upon from the vantage point of a future time. But then this wouldn’t be a blog rather it would be a text book of dates and figures and personalities.
The Matty’s of this world are too into instant news, unverified factoids, alarmist headlines. Your blog isn’t that. He should take a chill pill and unplug until things are clarified.
People here are being too hard on Justin. Try and concentrate on the positives. The hair. The suit. The beardlet. The hard won life experience slogging up thru the trenches dragging that giant trust fund around. It’s hard on a guy. The budget will balance itself. No worries. Chill.
This pandemic is certainly not kind to a lot of people.
For me, this month has been fantastic. My income to expense has been higher than any other month in the last five years. I have absolutely no debt and a small balanced portfolio that continues to grow.
I own no property, have no vehicle or credit cards.
When people realize that they don’t need to buy most of what they do buy, they might get on track to improving their future, although I doubt it. Who needs an $80,000 pickup truck or a $800,000 house.
I hope the airlines get going soon. I want to book my trip to Spain, fully paid before I leave.
Garth, doctors really have no clue how to deal with the bat virus. I see this every day when my manager gets the cardiac unit together for the huddle. Its always the same: Hand washing, mask wearing. Thats all. Next week the cardiac unit starts to bring back patients for procedures and more of the lab will open up. Forget about social distancing at my work. It is more like an elevator, or working in one. And apparently masks are in short supply. Parking services has decided to give free parking so thats also a cluster depending when you get to the hospital in the morning and break spaces to eat are minimal. University of Calgary medical wing at the hospital is barricaded, so I cant go there anymore either to get away from people. No way Im eating close to anyone I dont know. What to do? I go outside and eat in my vehicle in the parking lot. Eat lunch, listen to a few podcasts, read scripture, take a nap. Then I climb the 9 flights of stairs again after the meal.
People want certainty. There isnt any. Ever. Living now is a bit like living in Viking times. So I change my thought pattern accordingly. Plan for the future but live moment by moment. Could die at anytime. What to do? Read scripture. Exercise. Pray. Dont worry about the little things.
Last thing: Given that medical “authorities” dont have a clue how to handle this bat virus, there are resources for the medical person and lay person: Tons of orthomolecular studies on vitamin D3 and C. These cant kill you. One physician MD apparently took 100,000 units of D3 a day for six months. Had blood tests every couple days. His blood levels reached 325 nanogram/ml(whatever the measure level is). Apparently <20 and CVD19 will kill you. Above 80 levels(optimal is around 70 and can be achieve by 5000-10000 units a day) and apparently ZERO patients have this level of Covid, meaning that if your levels are high statistically you will never see the inside of a hospital. As an aside, Vitamins D3 and C fix a multitude of normal health problems. So why authorities are lying about studies saying Vitamin C doesnt stop things like sepsis is because they are using in most cases minimal dosage for heavy disease and acute care. No. You must use large amounts of vitamin C for acute illness, like 100 GRAMS a day IV. And no wonder the studies dont work. It appears doctors are more fearful of litigation(some doctors) and this makes no sense. Even at work if I mention vitamins I get looks from physicians. Well, the common person only has to go online or to a store and buy the vitamins. My suggestion to anyone reading that is to do just that. Evidence based medicine at this point is retarded and too slow to catch up. Sure once a vaccine is available I will get it, however this whole thing reminds me of when a nurse last year went to the Phillipines for pro bono work, got sick and then came back and infected the whole unit. I went to my doctor and he just shrugged his shoulders. So I did my own research at how to get better and I did. Other than needing oxygen which by then it is likely to late hospitals do nothing for Covid. Best to circumvent possible problems and go nuts with vitamin D and C and avoid hospitals unless you cannot breathe.
I hope eventually this bioweapon is nailed somehow cause Im quite tired of having naps and waking up in the morning feeling like Im in a recent Netflix movie about 2 guys who went to the Arctic and got infected. The continual nonsense from those supposed to be leaders is a joke as is the response from medical authorities. It is like the blind leading the blind. Or Donald Duck.
Keep up with this not pathetic blog.
You’re doing a great job Garth! Hopefully thoughts from people like Matty doesn’t stop you from sharing your running thoughts. Your thoughts on the pandemic are spot on.
Even here in Ottawa the municipality changes their mind daily. One day they decide to disallow window visits at long care homes, and then the next day they change their minds and allow it.
Or, one day you’ll get a $880 fine for having a beer with your neighbor over the fence respecting social distancing parameters, but the next day they decide to allow it.
My dog and I are getting fat from walking dizzying circles around the neighborhood. Why are the wide open dog parks closed? Why can’t I throw a fishing line in a river? Some restrictions make no sense.
Only my cat is unaffected by all this. She just eats, poops, and sleeps like she always did. She still has her svelte figure.
AAPL.US. So soon?
http://www.macrumors.com › how-to › opt-out-covid-19-exposure-notificat…
1 day ago – Tap on COVID-19 Exposure Notifications. Tap the toggle to turn the feature off. The purpose of the exposure notification system is to limit the …
Garth, your blog has been a refreshing, end-of-day read of mine for years. Your honest opinion and perspective is why I keep coming back. This blog is an oasis where folks can share their diverse and often dissenting thoughts in a respectfully moderated forum – a rarity. Many of us have also profited from your savings and investment advice – thanks for this too. Your daily sacrifice for this community is truly appreciated! All the best to all blog-dogs during these strange times!
Um, some pandemic eh?
Lay offs, pay cuts, loss of benefits.
Who would of thunk doctors and nurses losing their jobs.
Maybe they’ll move to Ontario, don’t we have a shortage?
A few news video clips with the article.
https://healthimpactnews.com/2020/crisis-in-america-hospitals-across-the-country-begin-to-close-due-to-lack-of-patients-nurses-and-doctors-being-laid-off/
Oh dear. What kind of mess are we in for should a second wave hit? To the fallen members of our armed forces god bless. Forever grateful
It will be A long haul Canada until a vaccine comes.
I remember Garth’s post about the Leger poll where Canadians want the virus to be “gone, gone.” So I took the R0 numbers for Italia, from the Health Ministry, and calculated when there would be 0 cases…to show what a long haul it will be. It would take too long to explain the calculations here, but these are the results based on yesterday’s Italian data, “gone, gone” for Italia:
Earliest Date = August 7, 2020
Latest Date = November 11, 2020
The above are based on R0 = 0.5 and 0.7, respectively, and a Serial Interval of 4 days (1 “generation”) for COVID-19. A couple of links below show the calculations for those that are handy at eyeballing Math.
Canada, save maybe PEI and NB (I suspect but do not know for sure), are nowhere near the above R0 numbers. Manitoba, per the Winnipeg Free Press, will have their R0 number in about 2-3 weeks. They plan to reopen before, I think that is risky without knowing their R0, a coin toss probability.
The point here Canada is that until a vaccine comes, it will take longer than the above dates for Mr. Virus to be “gone, gone” from Canada.
So PREPARE, BRACE for that.
——————————-
R0 = 0.5 Calc: https://i.imgur.com/9BvQM0P.jpg
R0 = 0.7 Calc: https://i.imgur.com/TU32uGw.jpg
——————————-
PS: Matty, I cannot imagine what you are going thru but if you can, don’t let one “aw dung” erase “1000 ‘atta boys”.
What’s the beef with O’Leary? He may have dropped out from running for PM, but from the looks of it, he’s doing pretty darn good.
Whew! What a disrespectful little note Matty sent. ( Hope that isn’t the Kelowna guy who sometimes posts….).
I see nothing contradictory. It’s perfectly reasonable to question whether the Canadian response to the Pandemic has been an overreaction given how different nations have responded and especially in view of the ‘dead wrong’ death projections etc., based on faulty modelling provided at the onset.
Pointing out the financial implications of our response to the Pandemic is a related but completely different and very serious issue. In case you haven’t noticed Matty, we are in the middle of a transatlantic flight and both pilots just went into cardiac arrest. Hope you are wearing your Depends.
And as Garth has pointed out, it also doesn’t help that our biggest national export is oil (currently on its own ventilator), our secondary national industry is housing ( doesn’t require a ventilator yet as it already is its own gas bag ),and everyday Canadians have ignored advice for years about high debt levels and now don’t have jobs. There’s no road map for this disaster and some people are not going to survive. Not talking about the poor souls who catch Covid.
Mr. Turner, where the hell is our PPE?
We’ve got to sift through all these disgusting, germ-laden messages from the steerage losers here and put them up, yet you continue to ignore our requests for personal protection. We also need to be keeping at least two megabytes away from digital contact with the worst deplorables here, and you know who they are.
What the hell is this about? And no, don’t just tell us to buy our own masks with our CERB money, you freakin’ idiot.
We are filing multiple grievances and will be taking serious action shortly.
You have been warned.
Emma Zaun
Shop Steward
CUPE (Canadian Union of Peelers and Exhibitionists)
#39Calgary-except for you no medical personnel are even discussing preventative health measures re this virus (except for hiding in the basement waiting to be vaccinated)-I would rather have you running the response to this thing than Theresa Tam.
I always thought that the carbon taxes would be used to restrict our travel; now it will be airline seat prices.
Westjet blocking off 1 seat per row.
If you doubt they wish our travel rights removed, just look at the programming message: “Stay home”
Mass delusions: being in a plane full of recycled air for hours is fine. But sitting in there less than 3 feet away from someone is bad.
At this point in time you are forced into believing that everyone is sick, a carrier. But that standing 6 feet away keeps you safe! We’re talking literal black death plague here folks. But standing 6 feet away protects you.
We are living the greatest mind control ritual ever.
All those new phrases they taught you on week one – you know them there’s only a handful – will be used to further our enslavement.
Using ‘contact tracking’ expect entire areas of cities to be made off limits or shut down by rolling alerts.
WHY do you think the Amber Alert featured so heavily last year? Along with grocery pick-up and app food delivery.
Expect an alert to go off on your, all affected citizens must lock down at home for 2 weeks, police will swarm the areas and detain stragglers – all because an ‘spreader’ was tracked into the area. Far fetched?
Today the CEO at the company said that due to the shrinking economy, we get 3% wage cut for a year, no RRSP match and smaller bonuses. I guess we are still working and hoping to continue working during this pandemic, but if things get worse who knows. They estimate in the U.S. pretty soon it will be 45 million people unemployed, God help us all.
#41 TurnerNation on 04.30.20 at 5:08 pm sez:
“AAPL.US. So soon?
http://www.macrumors.com › how-to › opt-out-covid-19-exposure-notificat…
1 day ago – Tap on COVID-19 Exposure Notifications. Tap the toggle to turn the feature off. The purpose of the exposure notification system is to limit the …”
————————————–
What in the phaq are you talking about?
Yesterday went to Canadian Tire and now you cannot go in the store to shop, you have to call in your order and you pick it up at the curb. Things are not getting better.
#39-Calgary Rip Off
Yes and over 90% of ventilated patients die.
It’s not the right tool according to some outspoken front line Drs.
Plus to use a ventilator correctly is a whole other subject, your dealing with 3 different atmospheric
pressures and the lungs can be fatally damaged very
quickly.
I am just so curious as to how the layoffs and reduction in wages (how many blog dogs are keeping their jobs but going to 80% pay? – I know many people going there for 6 months to 1 year) are going to hit the housing markets.
I think by September we will see a lot of people trying to sell their houses to get out of the financial vice they’ve wound up in, and tap that equity. Unless HELOC use skyrockets even further.
Love to hear what the dogs and Garth think is going to happen this autumn to house prices and sales.
I put my lumber footed brockle faced roan gelding back on hay. Thought we were riding at dawn …
So far so good in Italia. The April 14th Phase I opening of the economy where 3.5MM went back to work has not caused Italia’s R0 of 0.5 to 0.7 to budge 1 bit. And, axe to grind me, 3.5MM workers and according to CTV National News and NBC Nightly News, THAT’S a lot of “Card Shops”, who knew?
Phase II begins on Monday, at least another 2.5 to 2.8 MM go back to work. Every Monday thereafter more of the economy is reopened.
Gov Italia said again today that if R0 > 1, back to the trenches and roll back of the reopening. They went on to say decisions will be based on Science (Germany’s Merkel today said the same and good news, their R0 came back down from 1 to 0.7 today, good for them).
Most if not all of the other European nations starting to reopen but nowhere near the scale that Italia has and will as of this Monday. It seems to me they are waiting to see how “Canary in the Coal Mine” Italia makes out. I would to if I were them.
Our PM Conte, his guts, our blood…hopefully not the latter.
Don’t wish Italia luck, wish the West luck…if Italia fails with all their preparation (work protocols to spin your head unlike America’s Wild West) then it’s going to be an ugly year for all.
I’ll let you know what didn’t work and why…so you can keep away from whatever it was.
———————————-
Still goofs here posting about herd immunity. AGAIN, you need 60-70% of the population to have been infected and lived (e.g., for measles herd immunity is in the mid 90 %’s).
Simple Math “herd people” for Canada, # of Canadians required for herd immunity, minimum:
37.59MM x 0.6 = 22.6 MM that lived.
Current Canadian Cases = 54,000 and that includes cured plus deaths.
YOU HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO to get to herd immunity, many months of Sundays LONG.
Math shows what a stupid premise herd immunity is from the word get go.
Also, for the intrepid:
How many here volunteer to be infected?
Ya, I thought so.
A lot of people have been harping on about “the government is giving out too much money”, “the CERB and other COVID emergency funds are a cash grab and will bankrupt us” etc etc.
What you don’t realize is that if you didn’t flood the economy will liquidity after shutting it down you would surely go into a depression.
No one on this board has given any other viable alternative, quite simply because there is no other alternative.
Pity Alberta. They can’t catch a break…
https://mobile.twitter.com/BillTufts/status/1255890119191662597
Nothing was ever in doubt.
The virus was only an accelerant.
Since 2008 we should have cut back on public service salaries and benefits but we had twits like Kathleen Wynne paying them more.
We have been in an underlying deflationary environment for years.
Real estate has been outrageously overvalued. Canadians for the most part are simply delusional. The social justice lunacy taught in schools that you are independent until it is time to play victim is farcical.
No accountability.
At least our national pastime gives a sector of our population a dose of reality. When you step on the ice it is kill or be killed. You learn some real life skills real fast.
There is no sugar coating your ineptitude, it is there for all to see.
For the rest it’s all about begging for handouts because the government owes you.
Goosing non-productive assets by printing money does not an economy make. Read my previous posts.
None of this is revelation.
If you paid $900,000 for a semi in Toronto or 3 million for a small detached in Vancouver a couple years ago you were just the greater fool.
It’s actually incredible the amount of two-faced garbage you spew sometimes Garth. One day you make it seem like the pandemic is a temporary blip then you show how much of a fear mongering, view-grabbing blog poster you are. I’ve followed your blog religiously for the past several years, and while you’ve given some great advice, your approach to navigating this pandemic has been dismal at best. If you can’t see for yourself how conflicting your posts have been, I’m not sure anyone will be able to convince you otherwise.
===================
Garth…
We told you to buy her flowers…or at least use those Groupon coupons.
“And, of course, markets are being buoyed as never before by runaway fiscal and monetary policy. All those trillions in government spending and bond purchases along with crashed interest rates pour liquidity into the economy, make financing cheap and bail out corporate losers.” – Garth
So if you understand this why are you not equally as disgusted by this type of profiting from government largesse as you are people taking $2000 a month even if “they don’t need it”?
It’s the double standard that’s hard to swallow. The wealthy benefit from bailouts no matter how irresponsible their behaviour, but regular people dealing with precarious work, student debt, falling salaries etc. are excoriated by you.
Healthy companies mean employment. Even lefties like you need a job. – Garth
Thanks Garth for taking the time year after year to write what you do! Your articles are insightful, interesting and they create thought and discussion. It’s nice to see there are still a few people left who are not “SHEEPLE”.
Matty boy… you get what you pay for …put a plug in it!
I lost 12.5% in the drop, and am nearly back.
Money printer go brrr!
This blog really has flip flopped, like that person said. But if I’m honest, so have I. Who hasn’t oscillated between fearful and optimistic in the past several weeks?
Being realistic is not being fearful. There has been no flipping and no flopping. Just flapping. – Garth
#7 Ace Goodheart on 04.30.20 at 3:36 pm
Yeah..and the 1918 pandemic that saw businesses and school closed?
When did life begin in the 1960’s?
MF
I really, really, don’t get what was so Gawd awful about the world on any given date prior to December 2017, when the Dow was never ever higher than it is tonight what with all the known known’s about how hobbled going forward is going to be.
More than a decade of constant QE and relatively zero interest for companies to buy back shares to enable having a smaller dog pack to send dividends to, then when the fan gets stained brown, they get a reboot from the fed, rather than re-sell those ghost shares.
But with all of the above, the market is only uppa uppa, while the rest of all assets are dooma dooma.
I want a reset, not as a buy low opportunity, but as a reconing with reality of the actual situation. (And the 30%+- drop was not a reset either.)
Value things a few years beyond ’08, and then I’m a believer in accounting accuracy.
Garth is right in that changes occur daily. Now in BC Dr Bonnie Henry is saying that the risk of catching the virus from someone walking or running by you is infinitesimally small, even within six feet. So with the medical “experts” running the province (and Country) how can a financial guy keep up?
Now they are confounded by the fact that getting an annual flu shot LOWERS the effectiveness of the vaccine-they don’t have a clue why-I don’t think the sheep understand that this whole subject is not like fixing a broken leg or taking out an appendix-it is a lot of guesswork, studies and surprises https://www.statnews.com/2015/11/11/flu-shots-reduce-effectiveness/
Man, tough gig you have Garth. Why can’t you predict with absolute certainty what is going to happen? Especially in an event unlike any the world has experienced before.
I too have read your blog for years, and on occasion respectfully disagreed with you. But to think you can’t adjust your views or perspectives when the chess pieces move is absurd. The world in crisis is changing by the hour. You observe, learn, and adjust. We all should, it’s how we survive this.
And yes, I know I’ll (and you’ll) get criticized again for saying the world has never experienced an event such as this. But I certainly don’t recall governments around the world shutting down their economies in the past. But hey, what do we know.
RE: #66 MF on 04.30.20 at 6:11 pm
#7 Ace Goodheart on 04.30.20 at 3:36 pm
Yeah..and the 1918 pandemic that saw businesses and school closed?
When did life begin in the 1960’s?
MF
//////////////////////
The Spanish flu killed between 20-30% of the people it infected.
COVID-19, based on studies coming out of California, kills about 0.9%.
It is slightly more lethal than your average influenza outbreak.
And Spanish flu killed healthy 20 to 30 somethings with no underlying medical conditions.
Testing, testing, 1,2,3.
Here is the latest report from the COVID 19 testing site near Cambie and 33rd.
The sign previously said…
Satellite Assessment Site for Health Care Workers and Medical Staff.
Hardly seen an potential patients there the last 5 or 6 weeks
This morning I noticed a change.
A piece of duct tape had been placed over the medical and health care workers part.
This is a pandemic where money is getting hosed against the wall and they are using handmade signs with garbage bags and duct tape.
This country is high-class.
Now it just says Satellite Assessment Site.
I thought maybe they were ready to switch the testing over to general public.
On the way home there was multiple vehicles queuing in-line to be tested.
Definitely some sort of strategic change is afoot.
This has been Mr Flop reporting for Sesame Street News…
M45BC
I cant believe ‘Matty’ doesnt have anything better to do than whine about an opinion blog, not on the blog comment area, but to its’ author…
Healthy companies mean employment. Even lefties like you need a job. – Garth
Healthy companies need customers with money. Even right wingers like you understand this.
Then get a job. The pogey will end. – Garth
Merci encore Garth. Can’t imagine what the damage will be like if and when the second wave hits. God bless our fallen military members. So sad, Forever grateful.
“As with the rest of life, the outcome is unfair.”
I’m not sure that is completely true. The ants will probably weather the economic winter that we are in better than the grasshoppers will. People who have balanced portfolios and savings and sizable equity in their house probably can survive without too much hassle. AirBnB super hosts who tried to build a real estate empire using borrowed money are probably going to lose everything. But it doesn’t strike me as unfair. The virus is unfair, but so are most causes of death. Death is unfair. But consequences are not.
I think we are in for a prolonged period of deflation and recession, at least a year, maybe more. There will be no V shaped rebound. The Fed can print all it wants but giving $1500 a month ($2000 Canadian) to the unemployed is probably not going to ease the incredible demand side shock we have seen. Beside most of them need it to cover rent or if they decide to “KeepYourRent” they have no place to spend it except Costco, assuming they have a membership. Even if they start easing the restrictions soon I ain’t heading back to the pub anytime soon. Or a sport game. Or to church. Or buying a new car. I already have lots of TV’s and computers so no new demand is coming in that area either. And I am not so sure I want to go to the mall. So I think the Fed printing will not help restart the economy. That is going to be a long slow road.
Groceries on the other hand will possibly as much as double in the next months as the disruption to the supply chains is starting to be apparent on almost every aisle at Costco. Once again the ants (preppers with deep pantries) will come out ahead of the grasshoppers. I don’t think these price increases will stick, the supply chain will recover probably in 6 months or less, but prices are sticky so some of the inflation will remain.
But, eventually covid will be co-gone and people will come out from their fallout shelters. At that time the Fed will have to try and suck all this new money they are printing out of the system, the government will have to reign in the out of control deficits, and people will have to start paying their rent again or we will see a mighty inflation as the economy goes back to work. I think this is what the stock market is pricing in. Companies that have pricing power will survive and perhaps see increased earnings. The earnings won’t be worth as much in real terms, and neither will the stock prices, but it will be better than having been in cash which will be trash. This is why I believe the stock market isn’t going to crash much further in nominal terms. The adjustment will come in the value of the dollars used to measure it. The analysts who do their calculations to value stocks are not unaware of just how much money is being printed and what that means long term. Cash is trash, and most everyone who matters knows it.
So to summarize I see 1-2 years of bad times and deflation (except at the grocery store), followed by an inflationary return to growth. 5 years from now the dollar will be worth 80% of what it is now, at best. This is why a balanced diversified portfolio is the place to be.
Everyone is wondering how on earth we are going to pay for all this government spending. There is only one possible answer: inflation. Not new taxes, because that is just robbing Peter to pay Paul (although they will try it), but inflation. Inflation has been inevitable since 1971 and it isn’t different this time. Historically, it is the only way a deeply indebted government has ever got out of it.
Interesting fact for all of you COVID-19 computer screen addicts:
In the Province of Ontario, no one under the age of 40 has died of the virus.
In the age group 40 – 59, there have been 39 deaths.
Each year, 150 people are struck by lighting in Ontario.
That means that if you are between age 0 and 59, and you live in Ontario, you have a better chance of being struck by lightning than you do of dying from COVID-19.
vaccine? good grief man
And Canada isnt Italy, thank goodness
#46 Jake
What’s wrong with o’smeary? The guys a douche bag to start and then the 100 other things of course
#2 May the 4th Be With You on 04.30.20 at 3:24 pm
There will be an uprising and revolution against all of this, starting on Monday, May 4th.
Be there.
——————
No thanks.
Garth what do you think of a 250 billion dollar federal deficit this year?
This is what you get with government funded experts, medical or otherwise. Except for natural disasters (for now), there isn’t a problem that governments can’t create.
#74 Ace Goodheart In the Province of Ontario, no one under the age of 40 has died of the virus.
——
stop making sh!t up
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-confirms-86-new-covid-19-deaths-surpassing-a-total-of-1-000-1.4918670
Matt your dumb and weird and a bit too sensitive. Time to take of your poop poop diapers off and grow up or grow a pair!
Garth I love this blog, keep up the great posts.
I never know which Garth I’m gonna get on a daily
basis. . .
There’s happy go-lucky Garth, cowboy Garth, Harley open-road Garth, doomer Garth . . sexy beach abs Garth.
It’s so Machiavellian, I love it!
I look forward to spending time with you everyday – sorry Dorothy, don’t be jelly :-)
#12 Dustin on 04.30.20 at 3:52 pm
I see happy people sitting on lawn chairs and having “long distance” conversations with neighbors, things I’ve never seen before, but these are wealthy neighborhoods.
——————–
Ya, we be doing that. I know my neighbors now better than ever. Who knows what this change means into the future? It is definitely different than it was in February when for the most part I only knew which cars belonged to which houses.
#66 MF on 04.30.20 at 6:11 pm
#7 Ace Goodheart on 04.30.20 at 3:36 pm
Yeah..and the 1918 pandemic that saw businesses and school closed?
When did life begin in the 1960’s?
MF
==============
Re 1960’s
Not sure when it began…
……but it most certainly ended when T1 was elected.
#72 Ace Goodheart on 04.30.20 at 6:25 pm
Yeah there were more than one wave in the Spanish flu.
Plus the death rate you cited is despite the lockdown and total shut down of the economy.
“Interesting fact for all of you COVID-19 computer screen addicts:”
“In the age group 40 – 59, there have been 39 deaths.”
-Yeah you mean like Nick Cordero? He’s listed as “recovered”..just without a limb:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/cordero-amputations-complications-1.5542217
Do a little digging. See the stories of the healthy younge people who are recovered by have their bodies damaged.
Like Garth wrote, nothing is black and white.
MF
Used to be able to get investing advice here.Now just bitching about stuff.
Is the market headed down. The latest earning are good partly because tech is not affected ad badly. Partly because the shutdown came at the end of the quarter.
Where does there S&P go from here. The computers trading stock seems very bullish at the moment.
#78 Ace
In the Province of Ontario, no one under the age of 40 has died of the virus.
In the age group 40 – 59, there have been 39 deaths.
Each year, 150 people are struck by lighting in Ontario.
That means that if you are between age 0 and 59, and you live in Ontario, you have a better chance of being struck by lightning than you do of dying from COVID-19.
—————————-
Am pretty calm about all of this Covid stuff. However, you are a smart fellow and I am sure you can see the fallacy here in your argument.
1. 39 people in this group over the past 5 weeks with
extensive social distancing. 150 or so over a full year from lightning. Would you like to pro-rate the Covid group over a year when the second and third waves hit
us?
2. Or should Ontario have been super-slow to react like the UK or NYC and witness firsthand for ourselves the wave?
That being said, we all can’t sit in our basement for the next year, and they will have to take calculated chances to open things up piece by piece…. but there is no sensible comparison between lightning strikes and Covid19
2. O
Clearly this Matty person doesn’t understand the current $hit storm is a fluid situation, each day there is something new cropping up that someone didn’t anticipate, welcome to a new reality.
After all is said and done, we should look at making China accountable for this. Germany had to pay its allies for the WW2 debts and I’m not sure if the world should go a similar path but we need some serious assurances that China or any other country enforces strict policies re wet markets… Otherwise we will see another virus in the future.
I absolutely love how many people are split thinkers, unable to understand the dichotomy of a real world. Ideas change as details come into light. If you are unable to change your opinion or beliefs based on debate or new data you have a mental issue. You should always be trying to better yourself through understanding. I love argument, but not to try to dominate another person’s ideas, but to enlighten myself to a different way of thinking. Matty, you are an idiot.
Mr. T, excellent as always, I’m amazed at your ability to write substance every day (Yukon Elvis, we’re allowed to compliment our host once in a while)
PS. Yukon Elvis, I’m kidding, I loved it when you called Dolce a brown nose kiss ass.. (paraphrased)
Predictions;
1) snap election called 1 to 3 months after lockdown ends
2) no major tax increases announced prior to election
3) UBI or economic equivalent enacted or promised by Liberals
4) majority Liberal government elected, (possibly with C.Freeland or Mark Carney as candidate, not Trudeau).
5) Income tax, GST, etc. increased markedly after election
6) Canada loses AAA credit rating
7) Canada becomes a de facto socialist state.
The Canada you once knew is already gone
yada yada yada
give it a rest … How do we make money during this mess…
anyone know of a stock that makes acrylic sheet sneeze guards for grocery stores..
#65 Piano_Man87 on 04.30.20 at 6:07 pm
This blog really has flip flopped, like that person said. But if I’m honest, so have I. Who hasn’t oscillated between fearful and optimistic in the past several weeks?
————
Yep, I’ll take that. Irritated and sardonic, yes. Optimistic, yes. Fearful? Never in the slightest.
About that pony ride we didn’t quite pull off this morning. Think I might have an answer. I inbroke fishing with a couple sea captains that were WW2 vets. Both Sergeants in the Canadian army. One a paratrooper/sniper, the other mine demolition. They both had a lot of the same superstitions. Never leave on a friday, never bring a black suitcase aboard, never whistle in the wheelhouse, never open a can upside down, never stick a knife in the mast. Pretty generic stuff. Also they both rather weirdly never pronounced the word horse on the boat. They would spell it out. Like, there’s a 200 h-o-r-s-e power engine in here. So next time we should gather the men & saddle up the h-o-r-s-e-s & leave at dawn.
#57 Dolce Vita on 04.30.20 at 5:52 pm
Also, for the intrepid:
How many here volunteer to be infected?
Ya, I thought so.
————–
I learned in the military to never volunteer for anything.
That said, I will cheerfully go about my business in exactly the same way as ever and accept that life has risks.
“The largest in dollar terms, bar none. And there’s no war. – Garth”
Sure, no war. But even after WW2 (when gov’t spending was north of 40% of GDP) income tax rates were higher than they are now, yet the economy still grew and the standard of living increased. The level of taxation and the rate of growth in an economy have no correlation. There are jurisdictions with high taxes and high growth, high taxes and low growth, low taxes and high growth, low taxes and low growth and everything in between. A large budget deficit does not mean future economic armageddon.
#34 What the ? on 04.30.20 at 4:49 pm
This whole financial disaster reminds me of an off shore fishing trip I went on while holidaying on the Cook island of Aitutaki.
One minute it’s calm and the beer is flowing.
And then before you can believe it we are in 30 foot swells and the puke is flying.
—————–
It takes at least a full day or more of continuous 40-50 knot winds to build 30 foot swells. Stuff no recreational fishers would venture into.
However, I’ve been on many fishing and boating trips where people exaggerate.
I am not going into politics or views today Garth. Once in awhile one just needs to see the beauty in life such as the picture you posted today on your blog! :)
@78 Ace Goodheart-
Just stop it. Don’t you know that in Canada any opinion that does not stoke the fear is not allowed?
Your Social Credit Virtual Signaling License is hereby revoked by order of the PMO, with an unequivocal endorsement from Doug “trust me I’m a real Conservative” Ford.
#85 Sail away
Are all fishermen/women liars or do only liars fish? :)
Saw T2 on TV today. His hair is different. Did he dye it? Too bad because that was his only redeeming personal asset..
@#73 Flop
“This is a pandemic where money is getting hosed against the wall and they are using handmade signs with garbage bags and duct tape.”
++++
Yep. Oh Canada.
And here we are at week 7 and they are finally doing general population Covid tests ? Maybe?
Yeah, hundreds of millions of $$$$$ spent on “officialdumb” to “strategize, pontificate, meet, design flow charts, design work pyramids, create messages of empowerment, hire advertisers, create commercials with famous Canucks, …….. but no mass testing facilities ……
Our bureaucrats at their finest during a crisis.
I cant wait for a massive earthquake on the West coast or a War where govt decisions are needed asap.
#58. When everyone is liquid they go and by new cars and things like overpriced electronics, sending that money to other countries that make stuff. So for those of you with government cheques looking for stuff to spend it on please try and spend it on things made in Canada like, bottles of maple syrup, BC wine, barrels of oil and um…apples?
Hi Garth
My pic was on your blog last September….thanks for that. Will for sure introduce myself next time in your town. I pulled “After The Crash” off the shelf today & despite is broken binding & falling out pages(WTF) got right into it. Not far in yet, but found myself trying to compare numbers( 2008) to today, that I don’t have. I’m thinking another book wouldn’t be a reach for you! Maybe a look back covering the last ten years….some 2020 analysis…and a look at the next ten (should I live that long). Please send my free copy Ha! Ha!.
Anyway, as a side bar, I have a client that is a Soffit/Fascia/Eavestrough/Siding Contractor(Barrie area). He employs about 12 guys & worried in March…laid most of them off to take advantage of Justin $$$$. He now has work booked to end of June, but cannot get some of his guys to come back. Don’t want to give up the free $3000/month. Pretty sure this is going to be the Justin virus…worse than Corona.
I’m not picking on you Ace, I’m only using your post as an example of false hope.
There is no equivalency between measuring death by lightening or death by pandemic.
I have updated my Pandemic History chart today: http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/pandemic-update
A pandemic by its very definition “occurs over a wide geographic area and affects an exceptionally high proportion of the population”
We are not going to get herd immunity until 70-80% of the population has contacted and survived Covid 19 and we have only maybe tested 2% of the global population. We don’t know how many asymptomatic people are spreading the virus.
As my post highlights, “Public transportation and all their attendant hub and support systems should be avoided until herd immunity sets in…”
We still don’t know enough about this novel coronavirus AND a vaccine that can be distributed throughout the global population is still a year away, maybe more.
And for those of you who cannot understand why Trump behaves the way he does, here is my post of April 26th http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/predator-trump
This post covers the following:
“Leading psychologists explain how Trump’s self-delusions make him stunningly effective at predatory deception.”
“Trump doesn’t want coronavirus testing: His instinct is always to hide the truth.”
“Is Trump killing people on purpose?”
“Democide: The murder of any person or people by a government, including genocide, politicide, and mass murder.”
I know that if any of the Trump fanboys read the above post, they will get very excited and want to throw shade my way. But I doubt they will actually read it because like Battered Wife Syndrome or Stockholm Syndrome, the Trump fanboys are the victims to Trumps abuse.
Yo Matty…..I think you’re suffering from voter’s remorse. If it helps you should know you’re not alone.
“Mr. Trudeau will go down in history for that alone.”
Unfortunately this will be a badge of honour for Selfie Boy.
Sometimes it’s a speed bump, but you’ll get over it.
Sometimes it’s a pothole and you will rebound.
Then there’s the pedestrian and you’ll swerve.
Then there’s a cliff and you wonder when’s the last time you changed the brakes.
Will this event create a nation of savers again?
Finally a chance for a defining moment of a generation.
This is the best blog going period. The economy just as in wives and relatives need to be vetted every once in a while. This time is no different. Many businesses were barely hanging on as it was and this will accelerate their unfortunate demise. But many of the bigger corps that truly do need to go to the great beyond won’t because of their close political and business / banking ties. Government positions need a very hard look at next.
Let’s put things in “Perspective” We probably all think that it’s a mess out there now. For a small amount of perspective at this moment, imagine you were born in 1900. Many would think that that was a pretty simple time of life. Then on your 14th birthday, World War I starts, and ends on your 18th birthday. 22 million people perish in that war, including many of your friends who volunteered to defend freedom in Europe.
Later in the year, a Spanish Flu epidemic hits the planet and runs until your 20th birthday. 50 million people die from it in those two years. Yes, 50 million.
On your 29th birthday, the Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 25%, the World GDP drops 27%. That runs until you are 33. The country nearly collapses along with the world economy. If you were lucky, you had a job that paid $300 a year, a dollar a day.
When you turn 39, World War II starts. You aren’t even over the hill yet. And don’t try to catch your breath. If you lived in London England or most of continental Europe, bombing of your neighbourhood, or invasion of your country by foreign soldiers along with their tank and artillery was a daily event. Thousands of Canadian young men joined the army to defend liberty with their lives. Between your 39th and 45th birthday, 75 million people perish in the war.
At 50, the Korean War starts. 5 million perish.
At 55 the Vietnam War begins and doesn’t end for 20 years. 4 million people perish in that conflict.
On your 62nd birthday there is the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tipping point in the Cold War. Life on our planet, as we know it, could have ended. Sensible leaders prevented that from happening.
Now, in 2020, we have the COVID-19 pandemic. Thousands have died; it feels pretty dangerous; and it can be!
Now think of everyone on the planet born in 1900. How do you survive all of that? When you were a kid in 1965 and didn’t think your 85 year old grandparent understood how hard school was. And how mean that kid in your class was. Yet they survived through everything listed above.
Perspective is an amazing art. Refined as time goes on, and very very enlightening. So let’s try and keep things in perspective. Let’s be smart, we are all in this together. Let’s help each other out, and we will get through all of this. (with b&d portfolio’s i hope!)
#87 Lost…but not leased on 04.30.20 at 6:50 pm
#66 MF on 04.30.20 at 6:11 pm
#7 Ace Goodheart on 04.30.20 at 3:36 pm
Yeah..and the 1918 pandemic that saw businesses and school closed?
When did life begin in the 1960’s?
MF
==============
Re 1960’s
Not sure when it began…
……but it most certainly ended when T1 was elected
————————————-
Mulroney, gave birth to the down hill slide aimed at the dawn of the millennia from hell! Paul Martin was the only shining light in that whole period. Now, nothing but decadence.
Oops, and Garth was a savior…
Tenants are stronger when we organize and refuse individual deals with the landlord.
Thousands of tenants who have not paid rent this month were contacted by their landlords. Some landlords have issued eviction notices, many others have attempted to pressure tenants into agreeing to repay rent. These landlords have the same goal in mind: keep tenants divided and therefore weak.
Tenants are organizing. Rather than dealing with the landlord as individuals, tenants are responding to landlords’ eviction threats and pressure tactics collectively. Tenants are demanding that landlords forego rent collection and all threats of eviction during the Covid-19 crisis; that no tenant should face eviction or personal debt for not paying rent during a pandemic.
Agreeing to rent repayment puts tenants at risk
Many tenants face pressure from landlords to agree to repay April rent on top of future rent. By signing repayment agreements tenants potentially put themselves at greater risk of eviction later on. There is no clear end in sight to the pandemic or to the worsening social and economic conditions tenants have been especially hard hit by.
Relief money is not rent money
In a matter of days 500,000 jobs disappeared in Ontario. Many of us were living cheque to cheque before Covid-19. The relief money was offered to respond to the crisis of not having money for food and medicine. If we use relief money for rent we will have practically nothing left.
Paying only part of the rent doesn’t protect tenants
By law paying part of the rent is treated the same way as not paying rent at all. Many tenants need to keep that money for food, medicine, and other supplies.
N4 eviction notices do not require tenants to move out
If you receive an N4 eviction notice you don’t have to move out.
Landlords must apply to the Landlord and Tenant Board for an eviction order. Currently, the enforcement of evictions and new eviction orders has been suspended by order of the superior Court of Ontario.
Volunteering to Vacate
Landlords are using the crisis to pressure tenants into voluntarily moving out so they can raise rents on units by hundreds of dollars a month. The form used to voluntarily end your tenancy is called an N11. Do not sign anything.
#104 sharon kubic on 04.30.20 at 7:32 pm
Saw T2 on TV today. His hair is different. Did he dye it? Too bad because that was his only redeeming personal asset..
—–
I thought that too. More red in it? His beard is getting a bit darker gradually too, I think.
We need to sell something that everybody wants, like fresh canadian water….that will get the debt down bigly.
DELETED
#106 Jay on 04.30.20 at 7:36 pm
#58. When everyone is liquid they go and by new cars and things like overpriced electronics, sending that money to other countries that make stuff. So for those of you with government cheques looking for stuff to spend it on please try and spend it on things made in Canada like, bottles of maple syrup, BC wine, barrels of oil and um…apples?
———————
Haha. That’s funny. Everything we’re buying with stimulus cash is imported. Never thought of it that way.
Can’t touch another human being?
Do as Depeche Mode says and “reach out and touch faith!”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u1xrNaTO1bI
If you are looking for something to read:
https://www.amazon.com/When-Money-Dies-Devaluation-Hyperinflation/dp/1586489941
Dont think it was made into a movie.
#100 Sail away on 04.30.20 at 7:27 pm
However, I’ve been on many fishing and boating trips where people exaggerate.
——————————————-
a friend who felled old growth trees all his life up on the BC central coast when I asked him “how big in diameter do the old Doug firs get?” He answered “well the biggest I ever cut was about 12 feet … but they do tend to get larger in the beer parlours.”
#49 BrianT on 04.30.20 at 5:39 pm
“except for you no medical personnel are even discussing preventative health measures re this virus (except for hiding in the basement waiting to be vaccinated)-I would rather have you running the response to this thing than Theresa Tam.”
-Washing your hands is not a preventative health measure? This is the first year my hands look worse in May than they did in January.
MF
What I learnt from comment section of this blog is if you wish to have well balanced portfolio you ought to be Costco consumer. Not even Wallmart. Costco. Well ,Wallmart try to have business in Germany but gave up. Germans refused to buy that crap. Low class investors here. Very low class. Deplorables.
Euro zone economy sinks; Spain’s daily coronavirus deaths at lowest tally in nearly 6 weeks
PUBLISHED WED, APR 29 20208:44 PM EDTUPDATED THU, APR 30 20207:37 AM EDT
…10:00 am: South Korea reports no new domestic cases for first time since February peak
South Korea reported no locally transmitted cases for the first time since its Feb. 29 peak, according to Reuters. There were still four new infections, all attributed to travelers from overseas, according to the Korea Centers for Disease control and Prevention.
That took the country’s total to 10,765. The death toll rose by one, with the total number of fatalities at 247.
South Korea has been widely praised for its efforts successfully containing the outbreak, after it instituted widespread testing and intensive contact tracing.
— Weizhen Tan
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-latest-updates-asia-europe.html
Germany avoids the worst of coronavirus crisis — but how?
By Erik Kirschbaum and Laura King, Los Angeles Times
…This month, Merkel, who has a doctorate in quantum chemistry, was captured on video giving a crisp, precise 98-second explanation of coronavirus transmission rates — a clip that, fittingly for the times, went viral. Even as a child, Merkel was meticulous and measured: she once deliberated for 45 minutes before jumping off a diving board.
“Merkel has emerged as an excellent crisis leader,” said Joern Leonhard, a history professor and author at the University of Freiburg. “She truly does think and analyze things as you would expect from a natural scientist — she listens, weighs the evidence, and then moves forward, in very small, incremental and rational steps.”
That abundance of caution sometimes garners criticism, but is perceived now as reassuring and steadying, he said.
“People know: it’s never a show with her,” Leonhard said. “And that’s all been extremely helpful during this crisis.”
In recent weeks, Merkel’s popularity has reached record highs, according to opinion polls. A DeutschlandTrend survey for ARD television in early April said nearly two-thirds of Germans pronounced themselves either satisfied or extremely so with her performance. More than 90% supported the tight lockdown measures she ordered.
“It’s a strange time,” said Oliver Bischof, a physiotherapist in Berlin, noting the conflicting pressures of public health and economic well-being. “But it seems like Merkel and the government are doing all the right things. It’s a difficult balancing act.”….
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/germany-avoids-the-worst-of-coronavirus-crisis-e2-80-94-but-how/ar-BB13omeF
OK listen up y’all, here’s how the new normal is gonna look. Virus will be here for the forseeable future.
People will have to wear masks outside at all time.
Travel becomes incredibly expensive due to socal distancing and sterilization and cleaning costs.
The age of internationalism will basically end due to the foregoing.
Everything goes virtual.
Group sports such as hockey, football, soccer, rugby and contact sports such as boxing, MMA are prohibited. They are replaced by esports.
Home schooling and distance learning become the norm
Taxes skyrocket to pay for healthcare, as everyone will be forced to take a daily government pill, which big brother will tell them keeps them safe.
A wealth tax is levied on everyone except government ruling elite.
The books, 1984, Animal Farm and even the name George Orwell will be prohibited as authorities ban “blasphemous” ideas.
Democratic elections are banned as the election cycle and process become untenable due to social distancing. Communist style governing cancels populated by the elite will run things.
“It takes at least a full day or more of continuous 40-50 knot winds to build 30 foot swells. Stuff no recreational fishers would venture into.”- chee……. sAiL aWaY.
I have seen 10-15 foot swells come out of nowhere on Lake Winnipeg. Why could that also not happen on this guys fishing trip in the middle of the South Pacific Ocean
You need a cheese sandwich. Maybe one day I will tell you how to cook them.
Great post, horrific and sad but to the point..
However, this market is toast.. toast
You have all been warned!
t black
@#103 Drinking
I was curious as to Captain Tom’s new “honorary” rank of Colonel and wondered where Major stood in the lineup.
(Captain, Major, Colonel).
He jumped a rank OR the politicans didnt want everyone singing “Ground control to Major Tom”…
Anywho.
My curiosity got the better of me and I looked at who had the “highest rank in the world”…..
“Wife” was the answer on the internet.
Yup, the world is way better now…well, as long as the stock market plunges. Asset prices need to come down to reasonable levels, environment is a lot better, greedy people deserve to suffer, on well to those that spend more than they earn etc….
and carefully listen for the “bandwagon”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-tests-specialrepor/special-report-fdas-lax-rules-on-coronavirus-blood-tests-open-u-s-market-to-dubious-vendors-idUSKBN22C3IG
======
american military deaths
the Korean War american military 37,000
1950-1953
WW2- american military 298,000
1939-1945 Spanish Flu American citizens – 675,000
1918-1919 WW1 117,000
1914-1918
Vietnam War American military – 58,000
Americans Killed by Inaction, Neglect, Incompetence and Corruption
63,856
(out of 1,095,019 current cases)
https://www.dcreport.org/
#26 Ian Bolton on 04.30.20 at 4:25 pm
Gotta say, I agree with some of Matty’s comments. I’ve also read your blog for years. The vast majority of it enjoyable and valuable, but I do commonly recognize contradictory statements on given subjects over time. The pandemic is another example.
Did you miss the part about this being daily history? Things change. Deal with it. – Garth
——
Most people expect others to be like them and make inferences and decisions based on belief systems, especially their own, which rarely change. When they read or hear something based on data, especially changing data, they can’t comprehend how inferences and decisions can change based on the changing data.
It blows my mind how utterly stupid and ignorant the majority of the population is. Especially lately. The majority believe they know something without actually knowing anything, to the point they will argue to the death even in the face of contrary data.
The ship is sinking folks! It’s not because of a virus, it’s because of the reactions to a virus. Stirred up by the media who are loving the increased ears and eyeballs.
Think the corona has been bad? Just wait for the hangover.
#89 Bob Dog on
Used to be able to get investing advice here.Now just bitching about stuff.
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I’d demand a refund.
#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.30.20 at 7:34 pm
@#73 Flop
“This is a pandemic where money is getting hosed against the wall and they are using handmade signs with garbage bags and duct tape.”
++++
Yep. Oh Canada.
And here we are at week 7 and they are finally doing general population Covid tests ? Maybe?
Yeah, hundreds of millions of $$$$$ spent on “officialdumb” to “strategize, pontificate, meet, design flow charts, design work pyramids, create messages of empowerment, hire advertisers, create commercials with famous Canucks, …….. but no mass testing facilities ……
Our bureaucrats at their finest during a crisis.
I cant wait for a massive earthquake on the West coast or a War where govt decisions are needed asap.
———
You can’t wait for people to die you say. Probably the most ignorant comment I’ve read of yours.
You can really stink a space up.
Garth you are scaring me tonight. 10 yrs basically means never.
Unless the US fed bails us out until trump can buy us for 30c on the dollar on the condition that Justin gets an orange jumpsuit.
This article had a couple good zingers…I liked the one about Kevin O’Leary.
#106 Jay on 04.30.20 at 7:36 pm
#58. When everyone is liquid they go and by new cars and things like overpriced electronics, sending that money to other countries that make stuff. So for those of you with government cheques looking for stuff to spend it on please try and spend it on things made in Canada like, bottles of maple syrup, BC wine, barrels of oil and um…apples?
*******
and….Weed. Man!
#95 and the budget will balance itself on 04.30.20 at 7:13 pm
yada yada yada
give it a rest … How do we make money during this mess…
Drive in movies? Door to door sanitation services? Figure out a way to monetize Justin living in your head rent free? Robotic mani/pedi machines?
I’m involved in a silent investor way with boutique assisted living homes. We have three, each with 5 bedrooms with full bath, large kitchen/dining area, large common area, private gardens. Round the clock trained caregivers, nurses and nurse practitioners on constant rotation, etc. Local owner ship. Our waiting list has now exploded…more than doubled…maybe figure out something along those lines. We were going to do one more this year but it looks like the market is suddenly bigger. Old folks warehouses, everybody stacked into a building on top of one another doesn’t seem to be in favour any more. We are even getting solid inquires from residents of the expensive ones.
Or you could listen to Smokey and do fourex…apparently its easy and all you do is make money.
Or you could trust it all to the market…
Buy a laundromat and offer a COVID-19 sanitation cycle for an extra loonie?
Remember, the guy with the nicest lawn isn’t any better than you…he’s just out on his lawn, looking, observing, watering, weeding, seeding. Ignore the lawn and you get nothing. Same with making money…you have to do something, it doesn’t just happen.
That is a thing too many ignore…you go to it, it doesn’t come to you.
#113 A little perspective on 04.30.20 at 8:01 pm
You had me until you started quoting the propaganda slogans of the pandemic – “we’re all in this together.”
Seems that Americans are starting to wisening up. Another thing that will impact the consumer society. Less spending on frivolous stuff. It might be too much to ask that Canadians do the same.
Americans are hoarding cash: Savings rate hits its highest level since 1981
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/investing/savings-rate-federal-reserve/index.html
The Vancouver “Rain” finally had the guts to call it:
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-covid-19-crisis-set-to-hammer-metro-vancouvers-housing-prices/
The beginning of the end…
#320 OlderbutWiser on 04.30.20 at 4:52 pm
#319 conan on 04.30.20 at 4:38 pm
Sorry conan but Sail Away is right…it takes people with wealth, that they are willing to risk it, creating businesses that create jobs…without them, Canada becomes a backwoods country.
—2—————-
So far Sailer Boy is all just talk.
On the Internet, everyone can be the Shah of Persia.
#129 conan on 04.30.20 at 8:43 pm
“It takes at least a full day or more of continuous 40-50 knot winds to build 30 foot swells. Stuff no recreational fishers would venture into.”- chee……. sAiL aWaY.
——————
I have seen 10-15 foot swells come out of nowhere on Lake Winnipeg. Why could that also not happen on this guys fishing trip in the middle of the South Pacific Ocean
You need a cheese sandwich. Maybe one day I will tell you how to cook them.
——————-
Haha, I just had a grilled cheddar on wonderbread sandwich after reading that. Delicious!
Anyway- 30 ft swells are gigantic. Absolutely huge. Not something you recount as making you puke, mostly because on a recreational fishing boat you’d be dead.
Hey Dogbloggers
If you are still working and getting a full paycheque, or Comfortably retired with decent pensions…..
Tip the guy or girl at the grocery store next time. Whether it be the one that stocks the shelves or checks you out. And Thank them for the great work they do.
They are also heroes for coming in to work for almost the same wages as those that got laid off.
#7 Ace Goodheart on 04.30.20 at 3:36 pm
” gosh darn ”
Never seen those 2 four letter words strung together Why not throw a Meeker-esque gee whilickers in for good measure. You need to buy some rap CD’s to up your street cred
@#136 T is for Thick
“You can’t wait for people to die you say. Probably the most ignorant comment I’ve read of yours….”
++++
Wow!
Reading and comprehension not your strongest trait I see.
Canadian scholastic “participation” winner I suppose….
Sigh.
How you segway from govt incompetence at their handling of the Covid slow motion “crisis” to my musings of a real crisis such as a major earthquake being an overwhelming situation that the incompetents ( aka govt donkeys pulling the Debt cart off a cliff) in charge being unable to handle a real emergency situation……
sad that I had to ‘splain that to you Homey T.
But with a one letter name such as yourself……cant say I’m surprised you cant think outside the box.
Good little sheeple ….keep voting Liberal.
A few months ago (which feels like a few years ago), you recommended that one should stay invested because unemployment was at historic lows, Trump would likely win re-election, corporate profits were great, and the trade rhetoric was deescalating. This was a reasonable thesis.
Fast forward a few months, and Trump is in big trouble, profits are evaporating, unemployment is hitting depression levels, China is hated, and the world is anything but happy and secure.
It is not unreasonable to assume that if the facts underlying your investment thesis in January changed, your advice would change or at least be tempered. But that was not the case.
In retrospect your advice can be summarized in basic terms: Don’t worry too much about unemployment, bankruptcies, the price of oil, or government debt. Instead, NEVER, NEVER FIGHT THE FED. If the Fed is adding liquidity in the trillion dollar level, buy stocks hand over fist. And don’t buy a condo in Vancouver.
#116 Keep Your Rent
How about this:
Homeowners keep your houses for yourselves.
Would-be tenants keep your distance.
I never owned a rental property, and never will. Can’t care less if it is still profitable. I won’t sign up for being pushed around, no matter how much cash I could get.
You want a place to live, then go qualify for a mortgage. Or pay the full house or condo price, whichever suits you better.
#25 Dave on 04.30.20 at 4:23 pm
Where do you see the real estate market in Vancouver Island going over the next 6-12 months?
—————————————
Hi Dave,
I think they will just leave it on the Island.
Too hard to move realestate anywhere else.
252 billion.
—————————————
Some of it going to MSM print publications who, by the way, have been losing business to lack of ad revenues for over a year.
But they went to T2, hat in hand, and he complied with their request.
Idiot.
I have read on this blog several times in the past that an emergency fund is not necessary, since emergencies almost never happen. An LOC or HELOC are good for that.
I don’t think Garth has been flip flopping, rather giving his opinion on how it is affecting the world (and local) economy whose environment changes daily. The longer this drags out, the more uncertainty and consequences there are.
I can’t get past the worldwide infection rate: the number was so low my calculater couldn’t calculate a value. When I tried for the death rate, it exploded.
#294 IHCTD9 on 04.30.20 at 1:03 pm
Mostly agree with what you are saying, just a few notes.
In the minimal labour society, much of the public revenues will come from taxing the robot labour, and relatively few from the human’s income tax.
Goods manufactured in the country will be taxed, and so will be the imports. In both cased, based on the estimated amount of robot/AI labour that went into those goods.
And yes, people will be able to earn some extra money in addition to UBI.
The government will have to get cheaper; not necessarily smaller though. AI will make it cheaper to create and enforce all kinds of regulations, including a fair amount of stupid regulations.
I’m not eager to enter the brave new world of UBI and the minimal labour society. In fact, glad that I’ll be in my retirement age, and possibly kick the bucket, before the full slate of changes takes hold. But, can’t deny the fact that the new order is coming.
104 sharon kubic on 04.30.20 at 7:32 pm
Saw T2 on TV today. His hair is different. Did he dye it? Too bad because that was his only redeeming personal asset..
…..
Lot of people having hairdressers coming to their homes to ensure their grey is covered and hair is cut.
Who knows? These hairdressers are perfect vectors for spreading Covid.
If Mr. Socks is going to his cottage and asking others not to go …
REALLY??????? Any thoughts Garth?
MONTREAL ― The COVID-19 economic crisis has shuttered our cinemas and airlines, thrown restaurants and bars into disarray and is currently busy running up a heck of a government deficit.
But apparently it can’t derail Canada’s housing markets, many of which can expect to see rapid house price growth once the outbreak passes, several recent forecasts have predicted.
Despite a steep drop in sales this year, the average home price in Canada will be 6.1 per cent higher at the end of this year than it was a year earlier, TD Bank said in a forecast issued this week.
So the libtards are now banning guns and there’s talk of hiring more bylaw ‘officers’ to patrol the streets dishing out tickets in case people are not at least 6′ apart or are talking moistly….ever watch the ‘Handmaid’s Tale’?…of course the Dystopian world portrayed is the work of the dastardly conservatives.. yet ironically time and time again it’s the left that are the fascists.
Quite a time to be alive..luckily the wifey and I are sitting at home banking cheques and trying not to self-inebriate ourselves to death..virus, what virus??? $50k in the bank ytd and should manage another $50k.. then it’s off to the Big Island for a few weeks…assuming there are still airlines by then
#140 Ustabe on 04.30.20 at 9:44 pm
I’m involved in a silent investor way with boutique assisted living homes. We have three, each with 5 bedrooms with full bath, large kitchen/dining area, large common area, private gardens. Round the clock trained caregivers, nurses and nurse practitioners on constant rotation, etc. Local owner ship. Our waiting list has now exploded…more than doubled…maybe figure out something along those lines. We were going to do one more this year but it looks like the market is suddenly bigger.
——————–
Sounds like a great idea!
#84 Reximus where are all these new cases coming from when everyone is under lockdown and distancing and most every store is closed? No one is close to one another.
There were next to no cases before the lockdown, when everyone was side by side in bars, elevators, busses and so on.
A great evening look outside, tons of people outside jogging walking their dogs, exercising.
Boy the narraitive collapses fast doesn’t it.
I said from the onset that the #s on Tee-vee will be used to rule us. The Win-Lost-Tie score. No sports you see.
COVID-1984
#103 Drinking on 04.30.20 at 7:32 pm
#85 Sail away
Are all fishermen/women liars or do only liars fish? :)
******************************
I watched a fishing program once when the host was asked what essential tools all good fishers should have handy. He replied that every boat should have binoculars becaise when you ask another fisher what bait he’s using, the fisher will lie “like all good fishers!”
It looks like the stock market took “only” 5 years to recover from 1929’s crash while the unemployment rate (at 25% just after the crash) took an extra 5 years (1940) to be at 15%. In 1933, there were still about 20% of Canadians relying upon government relief for survival. Economists distinguish from depression (long time to recover) to recession (less than one year to recover). The Canadian provinces that made it were Ontario and QC because more diversified. The Western’s relying on product exports were the most affected. Pretty challenging to compare the 1930s to now since the world globalized, we are service-oriented and manufacturing is gone, post-industrialized, “connected”, but not to the reality, more educated, but not necessary smarter. What is different this time? Many thanks Garth for keeping up and sharing your thoughts. We are lucky to have you. You are a wise man, much needed, specially in rough times.
@ Conan129: “It takes at least a full day or more of continuous 40-50 knot winds to build 30 foot swells. Stuff no recreational fishers would venture into.”- chee……. sAiL aWaY.
I have seen 10-15 foot swells come out of nowhere on Lake Winnipeg. Why could that also not happen on this guys fishing trip in the middle of the South Pacific Ocean
**************
I can’t comment on ocean swells, but have travelled lake Winnipeg lots. It is a big, big lake, but it’s not the ocean. Being a prairie lake it relatively shallow; hence, it can whip up in no time.
#29 the raven said:
“But, where do we go as going back to the good old days is long behind.”
i’m glad you used this phrase. the good old days. of course i don’t know exactly what you are referring to. but if you are talking about – say – the period of a few years prior to the covid-19, i don’t know if those were such good days. in the last 10 years we have been subject to tremendous amounts of RE greed, FOMO, huge debt, financial ignorance and uncertainty. what’s good about that?
people also say let’s get back to normal. what’s normal? there has been nothing normal about the past ten years. imho. when things go a certain way for long enough i guess it seems to be normal. hence the word “normalized” (that’s a fake verb made out of an adjective).
but i think you are optimistic, raven. and i am too. and not just in a financial way. i think something really good will come out of this. but it may not be recognized right away. sorry Garth if this is a little cryptic sounding. i guess i’m talking about potential societal benefits post covid. say like enforced financial literacy. some widespread humility maybe. some camaraderies may sprout up where individualism was before. i dono. what do you think raven?
Nonplused #77
“…Groceries on the other hand will possibly as much as double in the next months.”
————————————————-
Noticed it’s already been occurring. Especially meat prices, up a minimum of $1.50/kg over last week.
RE: #90 yvr_lurker on 04.30.20 at 6:58 pm:
“Am pretty calm about all of this Covid stuff. However, you are a smart fellow and I am sure you can see the fallacy here in your argument.
1. 39 people in this group over the past 5 weeks with
extensive social distancing. 150 or so over a full year from lightning. Would you like to pro-rate the Covid group over a year when the second and third waves hit
us?”
////////////////////////
Ahhhh, but COVID-19 has been with us since January 15th, 2020. Four months as of May 15th, which is 14 days away.
So if you take 39 deaths, in four months less 14 days, and then you add another 10 (for 1/2 a month, rounding up), you get 49 deaths every four months.
Well, there are three four month periods, in every 12 month stretch. Multiply by three, you have 147.
147 deaths in the 0-59 crowd, over a period of 12 months, versus 150 people getting hit by lightning.
It is still more likely you will be hit by lightning, than you will die by COVID-19, if you are between the ages of 0 and 59 years old and you live in Ontario.
Cheers!
RE: #39 Calgary Rip Off on 04.30.20 at 5:02 pm
No. You must use large amounts of vitamin C for acute illness, like 100 GRAMS a day IV. And no wonder the studies dont work. It appears doctors are more fearful of litigation(some doctors) and this makes no sense. Even at work if I mention vitamins I get looks from physicians. Well, the common person only has to go online or to a store and buy the vitamins. My suggestion to anyone reading that is to do just that. Evidence based medicine at this point is retarded and too slow to catch up.
=======================================
No, what’s retarded is your post. Jesus H Chr…. I hope no one follows your advice.
Part of what is coming across as flip flopping may be related a distinction that on recently hit home for me: The economy (pandemic driven train wreck that it is) and the market are not the same thing.
The latter is driven by sentiment and trades on expectations of a direction from what is perceived as where we are today. The economy is fact and metric based and sinks in over time.
Usually there is some degree of close correlation, all be it time delayed, but right now the recent rebound couldn’t be a better illustration how sometimes they are amazingly disconnected.
I personally think the realities of what is going to be an increasingly ugly economy will creep back into the market, and if there is any sense to it all, it may even revisit the march lows, but I also agree with what the oracle-of-greater-fools says about the value of both diversification and waiting out the storm. Even this time, which IS different, but at not different enough to make changing ones strategy make sense.
#116 Keep Your Rent on 04.30.20 at 8:07 pm
—————————————————–
One more reason not to become a landlord. People not paying rent will only make the housing situation worse as investors decide not to buy units to rent out.
DELETED
The largest in dollar terms, bar none. And there’s no war. – Garth
================================
Oh, there’s a war all right…
It’s a war on prosperity…
AND WE’RE WINNING!
#124 MF on 04.30.20 at 8:26 pm
This is the first year my hands look worse in May than they did in January.
—————
Everything in moderation, MF. Too much of that and the grownups might have to turn off your internet. Heck, you might even go blind, they say.
DELETED
I think you are quite consistent with your message. Some of the themes are:
Real estate is going down. Society will change, lots of people will be out of a job and will not do well until a vaccine is found for coronavirus. The wall street folks will do well. I have to agree with you on these points.
I like the Blog, it is providing me with a few outright Belly Laughs, and no disrespect intended…. Flat Earth… fell over the edge… O Cannabis, … Yukon Elvis… JT’s Beardlet.. …. I mean thanks and keep it up… we need a few laughs, and a moment or two of levity….
Still a Shite show coming, and I feel a lot of the Market activity is Institutional Investors, moving resources out of the Bond Market, where there is smoke on the Horizon..
Keep on Trucking Garth… Damn the Torpedoes..
#116 Keep Your Rent
Hey you voted for this, your dynamic leader in day 50 of his 14 day quarantine, has sold you out.
All those jobs that are gone forever, structural unemployment for millennials going forward not to mention the big pay cuts of over 30% just to keep your job, for now. Expect more outsourcing to virus free jurisdictions like Africa, India because it is all for the betterment of your fellow man.
This is not something you can blame on the boomers, all brought to you by the millennials.
By the way your right about not paying rent, your going to need every penny going forward to survive.
#140 U. The gated full service ‘retirement village’ concept is booming in Thailand and Malaysia. I can see it becoming just as popular in Indonesia and Vietnam in short order as the concept proves up.
These international style care homes are first rate here, very classy, staffed to the nines, labor is cheap, so are taxes and overhead. The cost savings are huge for families wanting to get the old ones into comfortable digs. Lots of cheap leases beachfront and mountain top.
Great security and hospitals are some of the best in the world, particularly in Thailand where medical tourism is huge. An elderly person can easily afford a personal servant for a few hundreds dollars a month.
Cheap compared to Canada, US and EU seniors care facilities. Lots of Euro’s and North Am retireds want the sunshine and elite lifestyle obviously. This is the future, try it out if care homes are your thing.
The Asians really attacked COVID head on and there are far fewer cases and deaths than Canada.
Love the blog- mandatory daily read. It’s been a good time to take stock of all the good and what we appreciate in our lives. This blog is one of them.
Imagine navigating the daily news, all the conflicting information in the world to write an intelligent articulate post 6 days a week pro bono? Oh and with no breaks even in times of crisis? Ya me too. Not a chance. Incredible.
Matty, give your head a shake and man up. You’re frustrated, want clear direction and basically to be given the answer but what a compliment to Garth even if you don’t realize it. He might be an oracle of sorts but he’s not a god. Not yet anyway.
Would the OJ glove fit Trumps hand?
For the 1st time I ordered something from Staples online obviously the other day. Said it would take 3 to 5 days delivery and was at my door in less than 24hrs from delivery.
Good-bye wasting my time walking around in malls and stores looking for stuff.
The last NAILS are in the coffin for physical storefront retailers.
Permanent change!
To quote Robert Frost ‘everything I have learned about life can be summed up in three words, it goes on.”
Markets are doing well for now and for good reason. But this can’t continue. Even wealthy individuals will have to draw down on investments of this continues. As corporations and governments flounder, institutions will chew through cash reserves and begin selling off stocks to meet their obligations. Collapsing real estate and private equity values will contribute to the carnage. Dividends will be history. Mr. Market is going to be the last morsel of food in an illiquidity driven famine – there will be a sell off to feed the need for cash.
Here is more info on my previous posting on the topic.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/biggest-deficit-in-history-bound-for-canada-watchdog-says-1.1429432
Look-what makes me laugh is most people are putting all their faith in Bill Gates and the government to save them-where do you think the Wuhan lab got the money to operate (it wasn’t all from Communist China)-anyway-there is no reason to believe any experimental vaccine developed will be more effective than the current flu vaccine-you can still get the flu and you can still transmit the flu after getting the flu vaccine-the guesstimate is that there are already at least 30 strains of this latest virus-you would need to be vaccinated against the right one-my point is that eventually everybody is gonna get this thing-if you are afraid you had better start getting healthier and stronger as of yesterday because that is literally all you can do for yourself. When your saviors locked you in the basement and said we will tell you when it is safe they made sure to tell you the LCBO is open so go get some booze. Why do you think that is? Because they are so concerned about your health?
Oooooh, licking my lips at another Tesla short. Just break 670 baby!
And Garth, if you promise to read it, I’ll send you a copy of Stephanie Kelton’s book when it comes out. Might change your perspective a bit.
The reason for the whole lockdown was to “flatten the curve.” So did it work? Apparently it did not:
https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/?fbclid=IwAR2euyIVjdT2ird2E9axckotgcwydse15FYaHs1470TodK_jlcDDqSzu-wc
The charts show ‘predicted’ versus ‘actual.’ The ‘predicted’ were almost bang on with the ‘actual’ so the curve did not flatten. Interestingly, the charts presented are supposed to model when the whole thing may ‘end.’
@#147 Armpit( interesting name by the way)
“They are also heroes for coming in to work…”
++++
I’m getting a little tired of calling everyone with a pulse that is doing the job they are paid for “heroes”.
Its the adult version of today’s children receiving “participation medals” just for showing up to a sporting event. Every child is a winner. Yay!
Please check with # 149 “T” for an explanation.
My mother bless her soul was fond of using a range of quotes she learned in Great Britain to describe her life in Canada.
One of her favourite sayings was “in for a penny in for a pound”. When actions of the Government of Canada since March 1, 2020 are examined we can conclude that once they bought into the world wide belief that the Covid 19 virus posed an extremely serious threat to the general population the “die was cast”.
Once the decision was made to inflict further damage to the Canadian economy the Government of Canada had no interest in determining the actual impact of the Covid 19 virus on the general population.
What the very limited analysis of Covid 19 data has revealed is the the large majority of reported deaths were elderly. However there has been very little data circulated to indicate whether the elderly who died from Covid 19 had pre-existing health conditions that had compromised their natural immune systems.
Without a detailed examination of each death being attributed to Covid 19 in Canada the general population
continues to believe that sheltering in place reduces their risk of death from the virus.
A few days ago Peterborough, where I live, reported the second death from Covid 19 in 2020. The individual was 90 years old and had been placed in palliative care in January 2020. In March 2020 the individual had tested positive for the Covid 19 virus and when they died in late April 2020 it was determined that the Covid 19 virus might have contributed to death.
Given the large percentage of similar deaths occurring in nursing homes, long term care facilities, and to those in palliative care across Canada it would seem essential that the general population be provided with a more accurate perspective on the impact of Covid 19 on citizens with healthy immune systems.
Our governments certainly have to improve the health care being provided to those who are vulnerable to the Covid 19 virus. At the same time they must use available data to determine whether strategies being imposed on the general population of healthy Canadians should be modified to reflect the actual risk of mortality.
Without all the facts the damage inflicted on our economy since March 2020 cannot be repaired.
“And, of course, markets are being buoyed as never before by runaway fiscal and monetary policy. All those trillions in government spending and bond purchases along with crashed interest rates pour liquidity into the economy”
A liquidity solution can’t solve a solvency problem. Bear markets don’t go straight down. The bottom isn’t in. Patience.
Look very carefully at the photo. So illusory, beyond the IQ of most dog owners. The useless canine’s tail is tensely curled, as he is poised to savagely turn on that innocent child and try to maul her to death. So predictable and dumb to allow this, humans.
Meanwhile in Florida, another stupid mutt interferes with the broadcast of life-essential weather information in that hurricane epicentre.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/30/dog-interrupts-weathermans-forecast-in-the-most-adorable-fashion/
So the weatherman could not warn Floridians of almost certainly upcoming hurricane catastrophes, thanks to an idiotic, idolatrous pooch.
Thousands may die as a result.
Thanks again, dogs.
Guess what?
Trickle Down Economics really DOES work!
Who knew?!
The tap gets shut off. The trickling stops. The little people get screwed.
One thing is for sure: regardless of the circumstances, in the long run, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer.
Either way, nothing runs while big business is handcuffed. They can afford to wait it out while the peons suffer and starve. The Feds know this, so bailouts will come, at the taxpayers’ expense.
OPEN THE ECONOMY NOW YOU DIMWIT POLITICOS!!!
#156 Michael in-north-york on 04.30.20 at 10:48 pm Seems to me you have forgotten about manufacturers tax.
It’s OK folks – Justin told me the budget will balance itself.
Yes this virus is not his fault but what is his fault is his failure to save for a rainy day during boom times.
We will all be eating SPAM in coming years thanks to T2. But at least he has nice hair right?
RE: #84 Reximus on 04.30.20 at 6:44 pm
#74 Ace Goodheart In the Province of Ontario, no one under the age of 40 has died of the virus.
——
stop making sh!t up
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-confirms-86-new-covid-19-deaths-surpassing-a-total-of-1-000-1.4918670
///////////////////////////
Ah yes, the numbers counting “comorbidities”.
There are two schools of thought on how to determine cause of death. The first one is the school of thought we have always used, since the dawn of medical science. In this system, cause of death is what a person actually died of.
So, if you die of a heart condition, and diabetes, and at the time you died, you also had COVID-19 in your system (but it did not kill you, the heart condition and diabetes did), cause of death is prescribed to what actually killed you. COVID-19 is a comorbidity. It was present in your body when you died, but it did not kill you.
That is the first school of thought.
The second school of thought basically says that if COVID-19 is present in a person’s body when they die, then COVID-19 killed the person. What actually killed the person, does not matter. If they had COVID-19, they died of COVID-19. End of discussion. If the person actually died of some other cause, it does not matter. COVID killed them. You cannot question this, and people who subscribe to this school of thought, get very angry with you, if you do.
My numbers are correct if we subscribe to the traditional school of thought, and do not list cause of death as “COVID-19” if COVID was a comorbidity.
Speaking of which, there are a number of things you are not allowed to say anymore, regarding COVID.
For example, although it is becoming quite obvious that COVID-19 is very closely related to vitamin D deficiency, you cannot say this. You will be shouted down and told to keep quiet. If people who are currently being told to stay in their homes, were told “get out and get some sunlight”, there would likely be way less cases of COVID. We could still social distance and at the same time, get some sun. But you cannot say this.
You cannot say that COVID is caused by a virus, and viruses burn themselves out. They become less virulent. They gradually wear themselves out. This is of course because they use our bodies to reproduce themselves, and they do a horrible job of it. They make tons of errors, eventually rendering themselves harmless. This takes about two years for a bad one like SARS-2, which causes COVID. Just about the same amount of time they figure it will take to come up with a vaccine.
So, three things you cannot say right now. Vitamin D probably reduces your chances of getting COVID, COVID will probably have burned itself out by the time we have a vaccine, and COVID is not usually the cause of death, it is usually a comorbidity.
Freedom of speech is a wonderful thing. Don’t let them take it away from you. You will never get it back.
I will support a UBI for our downtrodded and uninterest group of workers on the condition each of them has to volunteer 10 hrs a week or something as community serves.
Going to be lots of graffiti to scrapes and needles to pickup and soup kitchens to open after Canada takes its swan dive.
You don’t get to be part of a society that you contribute zero to. If your labour or your ambition is zero, then you have to find another area to contribute.
“Mr. Trudeau will go down in history for that alone.”
—-
I am willing to bet there is more history awaiting Mr Trudeau after this.
I predict the man who lost Canada will be his moniker.
#190 Do we have all the facts on 05.01.20 at 8:20 am
—
Good post.
But, look at the flip side of all our stupid government policies too.
Right now, I am getting an extended paid vacation courtesy of the Canadian taxpayer. I’m lovin it too. On top of that, I seem to be getting more free CERB cash than I figure I should be getting. Trudeau has also cranked up our CCB payments as well. The municipality has been picking up garbage for free all last month. My employer is getting wage subsidies and free loan cash from the Liberals out the wazoo, so my job is safe. My public sector employed wife has been working much reduced hours at home, but still getting full pay. My tax return is looking like it will (again) reduce my net income taxes paid to a freaking pittance.
TLDR: The wife and I are kicking it at home, getting paid for nothing, and my tax bill for all this is near zero.
If the Libs keep this up, I just may have to start voting for Trudeau style politicians. I can used to this hahaha!
So the Libs are cranking up the gun control rules.
Because a madman had illegal weapons smuggled in from the states…..
More billions of $$$$ in paperwork to keep the paper pushers feeling good about themselves.
Keep everyone’s mind off the Covid-1984 lockdown?
#168 Lightning Math
——————–
I see your calculation, but the underlying assumption you are using is that it is a linear relation of deaths versus time. Hopefully, when they ease up on the restrictions there is no second and third waves like in 1918 with periods of exponential growth.
This year though lightning strikes should be way down… hard to get struck by a thunderbolt when many are cowering in their basements.
Does anyone actually think the office is dead?
I’m not sure people will be zooming to work in their underpants from a mcmansion in the burbs unless they never want a promotion again.
#200 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.20 at 10:02 am
So the Libs are cranking up the gun control rules.
Because a madman had illegal weapons smuggled in from the states…..
More billions of $$$$ in paperwork to keep the paper pushers feeling good about themselves.
Keep everyone’s mind off the Covid-1984 lockdown?
—-
Hey, if Trudeau bans more guns, doesn’t that mean it will be much harder to smuggle those illegal weapons across the border? (LOL!)
I have thought about getting my PAL for years now. Sometimes I think it might just be better to buy an old off the record .22 from retired farmer. Never been registered, been sitting in the closet for 30 years, no one alive knows the thing exists.
Who knows, some day some yahoo might smuggle a .22 across the border and kill someone with it. Pow – now .22’s are banned.
Not worth being treated like a criminal via legal ownership for a guy who just wants to protect chickens.
#159 cowtown cowboy on 04.30.20 at 11:07 pm
Quite a time to be alive..luckily the wifey and I are sitting at home banking cheques and trying not to self-inebriate ourselves to death..virus, what virus??? $50k in the bank ytd and should manage another $50k.. then it’s off to the Big Island for a few weeks…assuming there are still airlines by then.
——————-
I have a bluewater sailboat available for… let’s say $50k. A month of cheerful sailing, then anchor in front of Hilo or Kona as long as you want in luxury ocean accomodations.
Who cares if planes fly? Nothing should keep you from that poke and taro! Really, what else is there to do?
The Parliamentary Budget Office on Thursday confirmed the federal deficit will be the largest in history. By miles. Over $252 billion – ten times the pre-bug prediction. Mr. Trudeau will go down in history for that alone.
_____________________________________________
And I though he would remembered for his outrageous socks, arrogant selfies, that funky homeless Vancouver drug addict beard, the fact that he uses “Umm” every [email protected] two seconds when speaking and his most famous statement that the budget will balance itself.
I’m still waiting Sockboy, so are we balanced yet? Now? Ever?
Still on the fence regarding T2 vs the Orange Menace as to which one is more of a dick!
#150 Stratovarious…” It is not unreasonable to assume that if the facts underlying your investment thesis in January changed, your advice would change or at least be tempered. But that was not the case.”
—————-
Garth (or any other financial advisor) is never going to tell you to goto cash.
And if they ever do….it’s already too late.
A balanced portfolio always has a cash position as part of the fixed income/safe component. But ‘going all to cash’ means someone is trying to time the market and in 99% of cases, they will miss the bounce and end up buying assets at higher values. Amateur move. – Garth
#202 mark on 05.01.20 at 10:30 am
Does anyone actually think the office is dead?
I’m not sure people will be zooming to work in their underpants from a mcmansion in the burbs unless they never want a promotion again.
—————–
Working remotely is like being married remotely. Sure, you can work out logistics but none of the fun and important stuff happens.
We are back to mostly full office. Just banking money. More in the account than we’ve ever had.
So
RBC says 5% reals estate price correction due to COVID
CIBC 5-10% correction
TD says 7.8 % price increase
REMAX Says…. Who gives a crap what REMAX says
Has anyone tried to get on Webbroker ??
#195 CanadIain on 05.01.20 at 8:37 am
It’s OK folks – Justin told me the budget will balance itself.
Yes this virus is not his fault but what is his fault is his failure to save for a rainy day during boom times.
We will all be eating SPAM in coming years thanks to T2. But at least he has nice hair right?
——————————————————
So who’s income do you want cut to allow the government to save money? Every dollar they spend is someone’s income and some of that income supports the business you work for or own.
Amazing on a finance blog how few people understand or have even heard of the paradox of thrift. Only been discussed for 300 years or so.
It’s so nice to have our 19 yo son home from university for summer without a job. We’ve hired him at $20/hr as the do-everything home maintenance employee. So far, the house exterior is mostly painted, vehicle maintenance done, pressure washing, yardwork of course, today the gunnels on the canoe are being replaced…
It’s so nice having employees do the heavy lifting.
I’ll definitely give a reference if asked. So far, it would be: Decent worker but sort of lazy and usually late. Even so, things are looking good. He’s paid by the hour so works slowly.
James that 252 billion dollar deficit and the politicians that consent to it is the real plague that we ought to beware of. Like the real estate market government debts and deficits are a dubious luxury this country can not afford.
This just hit the news about 20 min ago here – a new test that the believe can detect the virus in someone before they are infectious.
If true, they could potentially isolate the infected BEFORE they could spread it, thus breaking the transmission chain. Whoa.
Even the loser wannabe epidemiologists in the comment section should be able to grasp the implications.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/us-germ-warfare-lab-creates-test-for-pre-infectious-covid-19-carriers
#204 Sail Away on 05.01.20 at 10:43 am
#159 cowtown cowboy on 04.30.20 at 11:07 pm
Quite a time to be alive..luckily the wifey and I are sitting at home banking cheques and trying not to self-inebriate ourselves to death..virus, what virus??? $50k in the bank ytd and should manage another $50k.. then it’s off to the Big Island for a few weeks…assuming there are still airlines by then.
——————-
I have a bluewater sailboat available for… let’s say $50k. A month of cheerful sailing, then anchor in front of Hilo or Kona as long as you want in luxury ocean accomodations.
Who cares if planes fly? Nothing should keep you from that poke and taro! Really, what else is there to do?
Ahh Kona, spent Christmas there a year ago..gonna go up the coast a bit next time..
I’ve often fantasized about at 65′ Oyster but after reading the sequel to Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, they seem like too much work..maybe a 42′ Fountain???
Hell I’ll settle for a new Harley if I can get the wife on board…
New pup comes home in a few weeks. Here they are: F litter: https://www.facebook.com/fourpointkennels/
197 Not 1st
“I will support a UBI for our downtrodded and uninterest group of workers on the condition each of
them has to……”
The “U” stands for “universal”, of which your proposal
is not as it is limited to the impoverished on the condition they perform certain work.
#182 KNOW IT ALL
Good-bye wasting my time walking around in malls and stores looking for stuff. The last NAILS are in the coffin for physical storefront retailers.
—————————————
Good luck too getting assistance or resolution when what you order turns out to be unsuitable, defective or incorrectly specified on some supplier’s web site.
The last nails are in the coffin of actual human service by experienced, knowledgeable people.
Get used to the idea of wasting your time returning items and reordering what you thought you were getting in the first place. Maybe several times.
…That feeling when they appoint you the new central bank governor and the currency dumps on the news.
#149 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.30.20 at 10:25 pm
@#136 T is for Thick
“You can’t wait for people to die you say. Probably the most ignorant comment I’ve read of yours….”
++++
Wow!
Reading and comprehension not your strongest trait I see.
Canadian scholastic “participation” winner I suppose….
Sigh.
————
Defensive much?
You are a classless fool as evidenced by your language and behaviour.
Musings, or not, you don’t go around saying you can’t wait for a disaster with inevitable loss of life in order to (poorly) support your arguments and biases. Classless.
#78 Ace
Interesting statistics. Where can they be found?
Thanks.
#200 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.20 at 10:02 am
So the Libs are cranking up the gun control rules.
Because a madman had illegal weapons smuggled in from the states…..
More billions of $$$$ in paperwork to keep the paper pushers feeling good about themselves.
Keep everyone’s mind off the Covid-1984 lockdown?
_____________________________________________
Crazy’s and far right extremists will always sneak guns in to the country that is a fact. Don’t ban guns just get Sockboy to stand up for once in his miserable misguided and entitled life and make it a capital offense to smuggle guns into this country and a capital offense to use a weapon in the commission of a crime. Any crime! Legal responsible gun owners can continue on with their lives and the gang-bangers and wingnuts must pay by not getting to continue to occupy our space in this world. I’m really tired of this crap from every politician down to the local municipal level who wont push for harsher sentences in firearm based crimes but the first thing out of their mouths is to ban guns. Idiots!
He should ban cars instead. Drunk drivers kill more people than guns. Perhaps focus on the real issue which is mental health.
#212 Steven Rowlandson on 05.01.20 at 11:18 am
James that 252 billion dollar deficit and the politicians that consent to it is the real plague that we ought to beware of. Like the real estate market government debts and deficits are a dubious luxury this country can not afford.
________________________________________
First non-confidence chance we have we should vote his ass out of the office. However thanks to him and his crony Liberal friends we will be paying for this and all of the pre-Covid-19 spending for the next century.
…That feeling when crazy stuff gets posted from the CEO’s account, the stock plunges, you can’t guess whether the account has been hacked or not, and you’re not sure whether your trading would be different either way.
Ace won’t give you stats, because he’s lying. From 1986 to 2005 lighting strikes of people across Canada averaged 16.5 per year. They have not increased to 150 per year, in Ontario alone since. Unlike Ace, I’ll give a source:
https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/lightning/safety/fatalities-injury-statistics.html
In the US, they average 270 strikes and 27 deaths per year, source:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds
Ace, being an idiot, is regurgitating something he saw on facebook. Likely posted by another idiot.
211 Sail away on 05.01.20 at 11:17 am Why not put him on contract? Win win includes a great life lesson early.
Asked an uncle, Lobster fisherman, back east, 40 yrs, the roughest seas he experienced. About 12-15 ft. 30′ from nada? Mmmm no.
BTW for all you politically correct wordsmiths, “fisher” is a frikkin mammal. Its.already.taken. Invent something else from the book of political correctness
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher_(animal)
Now can someone please take PM Breathless on a fisher trip…soon?
#182 KNOW IT ALL
Good-bye wasting my time walking around in malls and stores looking for stuff. The last NAILS are in the coffin for physical storefront retailers.
Unfortunately, I didn’t have a good experience ordering shoes online. I had to return 75% of what I purchased. If you ask “why didn’t you buy in store?”, the models I wanted were only available online.
If someone is in palliative care, it is because they are medically terminal. End of life care. Going to die, with absolute certainty.
How can any palliative care death be considered a covid death? Not comprehending.
Garth, the TSX wont hold. There is no way it can. Advising people to hold when there is no market is not really a great strategy.
Investors are prepping to walk out of Canada with their money. They already know whats coming. Invest, sure, but not in Canada or if you do, make sure those companies have big US operations.
https://nationalpost.com/news/john-ivison-no-painless-way-out-for-liberals-from-the-worst-economic-blow-in-history?video_autoplay=true
“One tax lawyer I spoke with said that high-net-worth individuals are already anticipating their departure from Canada at a time when their asset values have decreased and the exit tax is cheaper. “People see the handwriting on the wall,” he said.”
You’re a funny guy. Bail from an index which is a third energy-related when oil is depressed and will inevitably rise with post-virus demand. Glad you are not managing my funds. – Garth
@#202 mark on 05.01.20 at 10:30 am
Does anyone actually think the office is dead?
I’m not sure people will be zooming to work in their underpants from a mcmansion in the burbs unless they never want a promotion again.
_______________________________
not dead but probably half the size.
#145 Sail Away on 04.30.20 at 10:06 pm
Anyway- 30 ft swells are gigantic. Absolutely huge. Not something you recount as making you puke, mostly because on a recreational fishing boat you’d be dead.
——
Because this is an ocean blog: You are mixing up 30′ seas with 30′ swell. It’s possible to be in a placid, smooth ocean with huge swell (probably not 30′ as 30′ open ocean swell is rare) rolling under you. It would make you hell of sick if you are prone to motion sickness, but if the swell isn’t breaking it would cause no harm. Swell is an organized sea condition occurring after waves have travelled some distance, not the conditions occurring in a storm.
30′ seas are another matter. Any small, open topped boat without positive buoyancy would be toast.
#200 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.01.20 at 10:02 am
So the Libs are cranking up the gun control rules.
Because a madman had illegal weapons smuggled in from the states…..
More billions of $$$$ in paperwork to keep the paper pushers feeling good about themselves.
Keep everyone’s mind off the Covid-1984 lockdown?
—
Keep everyone’s mind off failing to detect illegal weapon smuggling, failing to deal with a single armed criminal effectively, even failing to activate a warning system.
RE: #213 BillyBob on 05.01.20 at 11:19 am
That does sound promising. An existing drug from the “deep state” part of the government. The think out of the box department. It will fly through the FDA like a tic -tac UFO. It is just being repurposed. Should be good to go.
Oh boy. Not confidence-inspiring
~~~~~
Elon Musk
@elonmusk. 1h
Tesla stock price is too high imo
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·1h
I am selling almost all physical possessions. Will own no house
19 T on 05.01.20 at 12:08 pm
He was slowly spiralling out of control then got emboldened when one of the weekenders erroneously gave him a shout out.
Good calling him out.
MF
#227 WTF on 05.01.20 at 12:44 pm
Not very well read are you. “I will make you fishers of men.” But I won’t bother telling you where the reference is from nor how old the statement is.
#232 Faron on 05.01.20 at 12:58 pm
#145 Sail Away on 04.30.20 at 10:06 pm
Anyway- 30 ft swells are gigantic. Absolutely huge. Not something you recount as making you puke, mostly because on a recreational fishing boat you’d be dead.
—————-
Because this is an ocean blog: You are mixing up 30′ seas with 30′ swell. It’s possible to be in a placid, smooth ocean with huge swell (probably not 30′ as 30′ open ocean swell is rare) rolling under you. It would make you hell of sick if you are prone to motion sickness, but if the swell isn’t breaking it would cause no harm. Swell is an organized sea condition occurring after waves have travelled some distance, not the conditions occurring in a storm.
30′ seas are another matter. Any small, open topped boat without positive buoyancy would be toast.
—————-
Always nice to have someone who knows everything around. After you’re done explaining sea states to me, feel free to continue correcting Garth as is also your wont.
#221James-this is how it works-being a law abiding gun owner is considered to be a Right Wing thing and therefore bad-being soft on gun toting criminal thugs is a Left Wing thing and therefore good.
#230 not 1st on 05.01.20 at 12:50 pm
Investors are prepping to walk out of Canada with their money. They already know whats coming. Invest, sure, but not in Canada or if you do, make sure those companies have big US operations.
“You’re a funny guy. Bail from an index which is a third energy-related when oil is depressed and will inevitably rise with post-virus demand. Glad you are not managing my funds. – Garth”
—————
Oh, it’s definitely not worth selling at this low.
It is, however, an excellent time to exit the country, since capital gain departure tax on deemed disposition may never be lower.
So, yes, continue to hold, but use the greatly depressed valuation to exit at a bargain. Any future gains will be taxed under the new country’s tax regime.
#221 James on 05.01.20 at 12:18
Crazy’s and far right extremists will always sneak guns in to the country that is a fact. Don’t ban guns just get Sockboy to stand up for once in his miserable misguided and entitled life and make it a capital offense to smuggle guns into this country and a capital offense to use a weapon in the commission of a crime. Any crime! Legal responsible gun owners can continue on with their lives and the gang-bangers and wingnuts must pay by not getting to continue to occupy our space in this world. I’m really tired of this crap from every politician down to the local municipal level who wont push for harsher sentences in firearm based crimes but the first thing out of their mouths is to ban guns. Idiots!
—
I’ve read the idea of banning this gun and that gun as “gun control theatre”.
What did Trudeau do for a living before politics again?
#226 Phylis on 05.01.20 at 12:34 pm
Re: my son working for us
211 Sail away on 05.01.20 at 11:17 am Why not put him on contract? Win win includes a great life lesson early.
————–
Everything in good time. I’m happy enough now when he drags himself out of bed by 9:30.
In dog, child and employee training you need to know your subject.
They need to be ready for the next step, or you may as well be pushing a rope.
‘BTW for all you politically correct wordsmiths, “fisher” is a frikkin mammal.’
“I will make you fishers of men.” — SJW KJV translators, four hundred years ago. The mammal, being limited to N.America, probably didn’t have an English name back then. First!
215 Sail Away Beautiful pups. Thanks for sharing
Glad you are not managing my funds. – Garth
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Let me elaborate. When NA resumes operation, US shale will fill the vast majority of the US needs. Canada only uses 1.5M bbl a day, rest is sent to US. They wont be needing as much for a while.
China will be the target of the next election and will be kneecapped by Trump. They wont be buyers of our oil either. They will have to go to the ME for theirs. Oil futures even with demand returning will be in the doldrums for at least 2 yrs unless they shut every well in the country.
TSX is full of energy companies and financials with the financials providing credit for those energy companies as well as broke consumers facing double digit unemployment for the foreseeable future.
Trudeau has thrown max cash around until our credit rating will tumble and with that will be a sub 60c loonie. He used up all of our spare firepower and used none of it to restart the economy, just buy votes. We should be looking at a massive infrastructure program to kick it off. Not even being talked about. Gun control today.
The TSX is in for a sideways ride at best.
@
#213 BillyBob on 05.01.20 at 11:19 am
“The goal of research is to develop and validate an early host blood response diagnostic test for Covid,” ( lifted from the Guardian article ).
Where do they plan on administering these tests?
If blood samples required airports don’t seem likely.
I’m going to board a commercial flight end of October anyway. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. I’ve got the Viking genes, anyway.
I thought they were training dogs to ‘sniff out’ the virus. That could work at airports, although anybody eating a cheeseburger could create a distraction.
Maybe a sniffer cat could do it. Get to work on that one Felix.
#187 Tater on 05.01.20 at 7:56 am
Oooooh, licking my lips at another Tesla short. Just break 670 baby!
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Did you short it? If so, good call, haha.
#225 Tater on 05.01.20 at 12:34 pm
Ace won’t give you stats, because he’s lying.
Ace, being an idiot, is regurgitating something he saw on facebook. Likely posted by another idiot.
////////////////////////
Not true.
Over 90% of all lightning strikes on people each year occur in the Province of Ontario:
https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/lightning/safety/fatalities-injury-statistics.html
If you are going to be struck by lightning in Canada, chances are you will be struck in Ontario. It almost never happens in any other Province. No idea why, but those are the statistics.
Between 100 and 150 people are injured by lighting in Canada each year, and 10 are killed.
That is 160 people in a good year:
https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/lightning/frequently-asked-questions.html
Over 90% of those lightning strikes occur in Ontario.
So roughly 150 people per year in Ontario.
For some reason, Ontario is Canada’s lightning strike hot spot.
But, yeah, those are the numbers.
In Feb when I saw the overreaction starting, I sold my positions at the top, converted most of them into USD and bought the S&P.
The only pure Canadian domiciled investment I bought was ZSP as a bet against our dollar and for a rising S&P against it. That fund is almost exactly even with where I bought it in Feb.
The other fund I own holds 60/40 US to CDN. And for an oil play I bought Suncor. There are a handful of similar companies Canadian companies with large US exposure that would be of interest as well.
I am not betting against Canada, I am betting against Justin Trudeau.
239 Sail away on 05.01.20 at 1:35 pm
After you’re done explaining sea states to me, feel free to continue correcting Garth as is also your wont.
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You got it man. And you can explain to us why TSLA, GEO, and ICH were good ideas after boasting about a one day gain that has since vanished.
Excuse me, IEP.
And because I don’t yet know everything (aaaalmost, but not quite there yet). Please detail why owning four positions in those individual stocks, one headed by a loose cannon with the SEC watching him like a hawk and the other by a washed up stock picker, was a better choice than putting similar amounts in ETFs holding beat down sectors.
I’ll give you that shared in a major US bank are probably a win.
@#219 “T” = Thick
“Musings, or not, you don’t go around saying you can’t wait for a disaster …
++++
Apparently sarcasm escapes you.
Sigh.
Perhaps you should go back one letter in the alphabet to the letter “S” = Sarcasm.
or “N” for name calling
or “I” for ironic…..
@@36 IHCTD9
Yeah I think we should also ban vans since a lunatic stole one in Toronto and killed what was it? 10 people?
The issue is incarceration. Or lack there of.
Most thugs with illegal guns know the Canadian judicial system is a joke.
“Mandatory 4 years in jail for possession of a firearm in the commission of a crime”…..
Please.
Rapists and Murders get less time than that in Canada.
@#236 MF
“Good calling him out.”
+++
Bully!
Do I get a pink T-shirt?
extra Large.
#245 Habitt on 05.01.20 at 1:55 pm
215 Sail Away Beautiful pups. Thanks for sharing
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Haha, yes! Love it when a new member joins the team- it’s been 4 years since the last. He has such a life of absolute dog-ly fulfillment awaiting.
Life is good, very good.
@#230 WTF
“Asked an uncle, Lobster fisherman, back east, 40 yrs,….
++++
Yep
Had an uncle who was a lobster fisherman for about 40 years.
Hated the pc term “fisher”
When pc dweebs would ask him if he was a “fisher” he would reply,
“No, I’m a Master Baiter”.
Apparently my classless, crude toilet humor is genetic.
:)
TLDR – the reckoning
[] called out by loyal reader Matty [] the Wise One owns his vascillation on pandemic outcome themes(POT) and succinctly explains …
[] the ‘this too shall pass'(TTSP) THEME applies to inve$tment $trategies for The Rich(TR),
[] the ‘tough road ahead'(TRA) THEME applies to the lives of The Pooched(TP),
[] ‘what will happen'(WWH) as we face the ‘new realities’ brought on by ‘the bug'(TB), both economic and otherwise, applies to all.
[] TTSP = as always, for those travelling in first class(TiFC) – TR Will Get Richer, the markets will recover(almost have already) with the aid of every tool in the gov toolbox, market forecasts estimate profits may be down 1/3 in the short term and there will be fluctation, ignore it and pay attention to WWH which should provide food for thought(FFT) on your re balancing efforts. Assets of all flavors will be on sale, interest will be almost free, Let The Good Times Roll(LTGTR)
[] TRA – for the pooched(TP) – those travelling in economy, by necessity – even darker days may lay on your economic horizon, Little consolation in swelling class size as small biz gets decimated, just more competition for fewer jobs/gigs. Housing may be le$$, but without or with less work, still unnaffordable. Universal Basic Income(UBI) maybe, but no ones figured out how to make that work at scale.
This is the reckoning many thought would someday come. It’s here.
UNLESS we ….