The outcome

Stocks up again. Volatility down. Portfolios restoring. Man, this drives some people nuts.

Not a day passes without a renowned macroeconomist wag or savant quant analyst in the steerage section telling you, ‘markets will make new lows,’ or ‘the worst is to come.’ But it’s not happening. It’s done. Mr. Market hit the bottom in the third week of March. If you’ve been waiting with cash to jump in, you probably waited too long.

But, but, but, how could it be? This very blog has detailed the blood-and-guts status of the economy. Retail slaughter. Eight million on the dole. Oil heading back to ten bucks. Record household debt. Real estate Armageddon. Missed rents. Mortgage mayhem. Intestines and oozy juices everywhere. How come rich people with financial assets are getting a free ride? The over-leveraged, under-capitalized, no-savings deplorables demand blood!

It’s true. Stocks cratered 35% or more when the virus invaded. Since then there’s been a serious retracing. The S&P has zipped higher along with Bay Street. Fear’s gauge, the Vix, has plunged. Balanced and diversified portfolios took a tumble of 15% or more, then quickly reversed. Soon it may be as if a pandemic never happened, leaving investors whole while so many others in society are whacked.

So, yeah, why?

Markets retracing in a V pattern

First, as this pathetic blog has said repeatedly, pandemics are blips. They pass. This mess is not the result of a structural failure. Banks are not wobbling nor big corps failing. Politicians turned the economy off and artificially curtailed demand in order to deal with a health emergency. It was shocking, disruptive and hurtful, but also temporary. Markets and investors get this. Growth will be back in Q3, when I can finally get a haircut and stop looking like the lead guitarist in Black Sabbath.

Second, the response by central banks and governments was overwhelming. The Fed and the Bank of Canada crashed interest rates within days, then started buying up securities by the vanfull. The system is awash in liquidity. There’s no credit crisis of the kind that killed us in 2008-9. Governments followed this with the greatest amount of public spending since WW2. Trillions. Everybody is getting a cheque of some kind. It’s astonishing.

Third, we went into this coronavirus hell with a relatively strong economy – certainly in the US. Unemployment at a 50-year low, corporate profits robust, trade barriers coming down, record high consumer confidence, rising real estate markets, peak stock values, low inflation, cheap rates and a pending American presidential election. A lot of big companies report earnings this week. Prepare to be surprised.

Fourth, Covid didn’t kill us. Yes, many perished, sadly, and by the time things are done there may be two million infections in the States. But Canada has largely escaped. The curve flattened. The health care system didn’t buckle. Restrictions will be slowly lifted here, as is the case in Italy, China, New Zealand, several US states and elsewhere. What was believed to be a massive shortage of ventilators in the States turned into a surplus. Most of the fatalities have been among the aged, or those with underlying medical conditions. Society as a whole is not threatened. And when therapies or a vaccine emerge, CV19 will be just another thing. Remember measles used to kill. Diabetes was fatal. Markets are saying this is the beginning of the end, not the end of the beginning.

So as the economy turns back on corporate earnings can restore, taking the place of government and central bank stimulus. This would suggest the bottom was a month ago. It does not mean stocks won’t have some brutal days ahead. But it does signal a brighter future. Hope. The way out.

However, there’s bad news, too.

Remember this blog told you Covid would make the wealth gap grow? Yup. Happening. People with financial assets are emerging relatively unscathed. Gains beckon. But folks with big debts, no savings, no reserves and (for a while now) no incomes, are even more pooched. Says Deloitte economist Craig Alexander: “One of the great legacies of the current crisis is that after the pandemic has passed, we’re going to have more indebted households.”

The other big deficit is confidence. Wall-to-wall pandemic coverage by the Coronavirus Broadcasting Corp, and other MSM outlets has parroted the message of governments anxious to control and modify behaviour. History will tell us if they went overboard or the message was justified. But polls suggest a majority are quite happy to collect pogey instead of a paycheque and are terrified of being infected and quickly dying. That the number of active cases of the virus today (26,800) amounts to .07% of the Canadian population seems moot. Folks don’t care. They’re scared

Worried people are not risk-takers. They eschew investing. They buy condos, instead, using big leverage – which is perfectly safe because the bank gave them the money. They don’t trust financial markets, believe the government will look after their retirement and get new vehicles with 84-month loans. Household debt explodes. That’s understandable (if risky) when the economy’s firing on all cylinders. When a crisis hits, disaster. If a legacy of the virus is falling house values, business failures and structural unemployment (all likely), the chasm grows. The rich hold assets. The rest hold debt.

Which are you?

 

190 comments ↓

#1 Deplorable Dude on 04.27.20 at 2:27 pm

#288 Figure it out. “ – Trump’s had some guy who sells pillows on TV at one of his recent press conferences,”

The guy was retooling to produce 50,000/mask week.

#2 Classical Liberal Millennial on 04.27.20 at 2:29 pm

I like this more positive post after yesterday’s downer. But I’m still confused as to whether you think this is a temporary or structural blow to the economy, employment, etc. You seemed to have indicated both.

#3 oragano on 04.27.20 at 2:34 pm

i’m betting retest of the march low. i could be wrong.

#4 Emile on 04.27.20 at 2:40 pm

Coronavirus Broadcasting Corp *bwahahaha!

I’m within 1% of Book Value == Market Value; let the recovery continue!

#5 Graeme on 04.27.20 at 2:40 pm

Coronavirus Broadcasting Corp! haha totatally. Notwithstanding the even worse news from NS it’s been reporting on nothing else for about as long as I can think now.

#6 Anna on 04.27.20 at 2:44 pm

Thanks for the positive vibe.
Disappointed in the lack of a timeline in Ontario’s plan to reopen the economy.

#7 Linda on 04.27.20 at 2:46 pm

I can see Canada cautiously reopening over the next two months if the death & infection rate here looks to have stabilized or receded. The USA though may be a different story. The reported infections to date are higher than the next 5 highest countries combined. On the plus side, while the USA has the #1 spot in both infections & number of deaths overall, they do seem to be keeping the percentage of death to infection around 5 to 5.5 percent. Compare that with Belgium, whose percentage of death to infection rate is a shocking 15%+. Bottom line is that Canada needs to be careful to not open the border to the USA until such time as their own infection/death numbers have stabilized/dropped. Hopefully that will occur in the near future.

#8 Tim123 on 04.27.20 at 2:47 pm

I have been trading stocks and options this month and have been doing great. The volatility has worked well for short term trading. It looks like we may be near a short term high so am taking profits and may do a few shorts. The risks are to the downside in the short term right now as the market has run well since the March lows. I think 2950 on the S&P will be hard to break in the short term hence me taking profits and might do a few selective shorts.
I have to agree the people with money have the ability to really increase their wealth.

#9 Boombust on 04.27.20 at 2:48 pm

The stock markets are operating on a wing and a prayer. Casino Royale.

#10 FYI on 04.27.20 at 2:49 pm

Apparently trumps looking into this.

– An aide to an influential king in Ivory Coast has said the monarch could order a procession of naked women to ward off coronavirus, AFP reports.

Amon N’Douffou V, the king of Sanwi, in the southeast of Ivory Coast, held a special exorcism ceremony last week seeking divine intervention to protect his 3 million subjects against the epidemic.

#11 I didn't get a cheque on 04.27.20 at 2:51 pm

Aaaargh! That’s all I have to say.

#12 active on 04.27.20 at 2:52 pm

Rich baby! 35 yrs old and all my net worth in financial assets…such a relief…and I’m still employed…

#13 Sail away on 04.27.20 at 2:54 pm

“Remember this blog told you Covid would make the wealth gap grow? Yup. Happening. People with financial assets are emerging relatively unscathed.

Which are you?”

——————

Let’s just say the Sail Away world domination tour begins now.

#14 Dean Richmond on 04.27.20 at 2:56 pm

Hi Garth,
You sir have been the only voice of reason in this ridiculous time which has shown the worst of people and the best. Sweden will be the country 2 years from now that everybody will say got it 90% right. Real thought out reasoning and a smart approach. They thought it out and will be so much better financially in the long run. Unfortunately people can not let their old relatives go and think prolonged aging in a care home is a quality existence. This has highlighted the need for people getting older to think long and hard about getting old and the quality of life the wish for THEMSELVES and not what the kids think is best for them. It’s a cruel realization.
Peace to all.

#15 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 04.27.20 at 2:58 pm

This crisis like all of the other before has once proven that living within your means and having cash ready to pounce when other sell like there’s no tomorrow is the key to a happy life. You also had the opportunity to discover if your significant other is truly the one you can live with forever.
Summary of a happy life:
Housing 30%-35% of Net Income (include property tax,insurance if owned)
Emergency fund: 4-6 months of core expenses
Investments: Long term focused – SWAN no need to panic
Personal life : You can still function as a couple/ family after a month or two without getting out of the house.

#16 Leftover on 04.27.20 at 2:58 pm

While the system is awash in liquidity, the retail consumer is facing a classic liquidity gap. Cash is king, bonds and resulting credit less so. Hence tighter credit rules and potential deflation.

This will come home to roost when the BoC has to off-load the new debt into the market. Where will the buyers come from? It’s not as though CAD is a reserve currency. Continue to print and we become Argentina. Raise rates and scupper debtors, including the government.

No wonder Poloz bailed.

#17 It can't go on like this on 04.27.20 at 3:01 pm

It boils me blood when I see restaurants now pushing 20% tips. Not only are them servants now getting base wages, but food is also 50 to 100% up in price in restaurants over the last few years. That’s a triple big dip, yes. It’s a dip on a dip. Portions are also typically smaller, so add that too.

The real problem is that the Mills seem quite happy to pay whatever price you throw at them. They are driving up prices to their own detriment. Any X or Boomer I speak to seems to not enjoy eating out (bang for buck all round) as they once did. Many are voting with their feet.

My standing joke is the only time I enjoy a meal out is when someone else is paying.

#18 Adc on 04.27.20 at 3:02 pm

Assets ftw.

#19 trailor_sailor on 04.27.20 at 3:03 pm

Don’t forget about the ‘second wave’ etc. Not going to be a catastrophe, but might see some more forced closures and another fall dip

counting chickens, etc.

#20 espressobob on 04.27.20 at 3:07 pm

Please, not the ascending markets again. The problem is all the harvesting of profit. What a pain in the ass. Why did I and a few others buy those cheap asset classes when they were on sale?

Should have sold at the bottom. What were we thinking?

#21 Piet on 04.27.20 at 3:10 pm

Like many of the blog dogs, I’m positioned toward the asset end of the asset-debt spectrum. Not nearly as loaded with assets as some are, but richness consists of more than just material wealth. Life is rich if one is healthy, free of undue stress, and has sufficient free time to enjoy nature, hobbies, family, and friends.

It’s nice to see the portfolio has been regaining some lost ground. I didn’t have the courage to buy during the downturn, but Garth’s relatively upbeat prognosis may motivate me to use the last bit of available cash to do some rebalancing.

#22 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 04.27.20 at 3:11 pm

I look at it this way. Companies are not printing a lot of new stocks right now but governments through their central banks are creating lots of new money.

Since the supply of cash is going up a lot faster then the supply of stocks the value of stocks will rise relative to the value of cash. So we should see higher stock prices. This is called asset inflation.

#23 Goober on 04.27.20 at 3:15 pm

Hey blog dogs,

As a long-time recipient of our financial prophet’s wisdom and wit, I have frequently witnessed impassioned pleas to our gracious host asking him to update the blog’s software to allow for improved navigation of the interconnected comments. As an old-time code-monkey now put out to pasture, my brain suddenly burped out a faint relic of long-forgotten info that may offer a partial work-around to this age-old issue.

When one wants to refer to a previous comment, instead of copy/paste, insert a link to the reference. It’s not that hard to do:

Scroll to the comment you are referring to and click the # sign to the left of the commenter’s name. The new URL (link) in your browser’s address field is the permalink to this comment. Select it and copy it.
Go to “Share your comment:” at the bottom of the page and type in your submission. Where you want to refer back to the original post, add this bit of code around your text that refers to the post:
<a href="https://www.greaterfool.ca/year/month/date/post name/#comment number">your text that refers to the post</a>
It goes without saying that the link you copied in step one is pasted in place of the Greaterfool example link above.
Select the “Submit” button and wait for your comment to pass through Garth’s moderation.

Each comment on greaterfool.ca has a unique link and all links are sequential based on time submitted. For instance, this link goes to the very first comment on Garth’s blog (only four comments that day) and this one goes to the first comment from today’s post. To return your comment, just click your browser’s “back” button. Easy-peasy.

One can only surmise that our financial oracle, bearded crystal ball gazing mystic, sage of Lunenburg, financial tea leaf reading prognosticator, former Minister of National Revenues, blog dog nominee for the Order of Canada, Harley riding badass, lover of all things canine, lone voice of reason crying out in the Canadian financial wilderness, NYTimes bestselling author and lastly, all round jolly good fellow’s* chiseled abs have been a result of him slogging through over 707,688 individual submissions over the past 12+ years – not to mention the innumerable DELETED and BANNED submissions (plus those too odious to even see the light of day). My hat’s off to you Mr. Turner.

#24 Deplorable Dude on 04.27.20 at 3:17 pm

#7 Linda…” the USA has the #1 spot in both infections & number of deaths overall, they do seem to be keeping the percentage of death to infection around 5 to 5.5 percent.”

Wut?

Worst case New York City reported this morning 25% of residents have had C19 and recovered..based on ongoing antibody tests.

That puts IFR at 0.5%…..and dropping, as the testing continues.

#25 Oracle of Ottawa on 04.27.20 at 3:19 pm

I just heard that consumer optimism is at an all time low. I’m starting to believe this V-shape recovery is happening too easily. A 2nd pandemic wave or a longer economic rebound can undermine this recovery. All it takes is a bit of unforeseen bad news to move the markets lower. I have been buying but I feel the markets have gotten ahead of itself. I would proceed with caution.

Just stay the course with a balanced portfolio. Trying to time things is silly. – Garth

#26 Goober on 04.27.20 at 3:23 pm

As reference to above:

Ustabe on 04.27.20 at 3:07 am

The two replies to this comment from yesterday unfortunately focused on the ill-conceived china cover-up portion, and completely missed the most important part, which is the story from the Financial Times.

Ustabe is right in bringing this info to light. The FT is one of the world’s leading business news organisations, recognised internationally for its authority, integrity and accuracy and is head and shoulders above some Zerohedge-type of rumour sites that get posted here from time to time. Somebody did a lot of work and researched mortality rates in 14 countries world-wide to see what was really going down (pun intended).

Of late I have been increasingly skeptical of government data regarding the WuFlu. However, after looking at the story and charts in this FT article, I’m now thinking that even the official figures might be overlooking the bigger picture. If it’s accurate, further research into this data needs to be done, as it potentially indicates what many have feared about this pandemic and its wider-ranging effects.

#27 Do we have all the facts on 04.27.20 at 3:35 pm

Love the optimistic tone but I remain concerned over the impact that current government policies might have on our economy in the future.

One interesting aspect of the Canadian economy is the percentage of our GDP extracted by all levels of our government to provide services to their constituents. In 2019 over $875 billion, or more than 50% of a $1.712 trillion GDP, was collected to support our Federal, Provincial, Territorial and local governments.

In the USA the Federal, State and local governments collected revenue of $5.78 trillion from a GDP of $21.4 trillion in 2019. Revenues collected by all levels of government in the USA only represents 27% of their GDP.

Expressed another way a significant portion of Canadian GDP is currently committed to the provision of services to Canadian citizens. In the event of a contraction in our GDP in 2020 there will be consequences that very few government officials seem willing to present to Canadian citizens.

We are running out of the room necessary to stimulate growth of Canadian GDP. The United States is in a position to devote a much larger share of their GDP to economic stimulus.

Canadian governments need to sharpen their pencils and stop trying to borrow their way to a brighter future.

#28 Stratovarious on 04.27.20 at 3:36 pm

You remind me of George W Bush declaring “Mission Accomplished” in his now infamous speech in May 2003 on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. We all know what happened next.

Even if the disease has not been as bad as the medical experts predicted (at least thus far), the medicine has been particularly ugly.

Eventually, the 20% unemployed in the US, the growing debt on all levels, the implosion of real estate, and the lost jobs in the service and energy industries, will dramatically reduce earnings. In a far distant time, earnings mattered and the price paid for an equity had some relationship with the earnings potential of the business. The Fed and Ottawa can’t bail everyone out for ever, or can they?

Today Jeffrey Gundlach shorted the market, and Trump’s approval numbers continued to drop. Someday soon Wall Street will get a taste of Main Street. Buckle up.

I declared nothing, but instead presented facts. Dispute any that you’d like. – Garth

#29 Mattl on 04.27.20 at 3:41 pm

“Banks are not wobbling nor big corps failing”

Banks may be in decent shape now – you could argue they are wobbly – but big Corps are most definitely failing. Or would be if not for Trillions in stimulus. Hospitality is basically getting wiped out and 2019 travel levels are probably years away. Airlines would be kaput.

I still disagree with you on the how structurally sound the economy is. I mean if the economy was in such great shape pre-COVID, why did it require massive deficit spending in both the US and Canada? Why was the Prez so fearful of normalizing interest rates? And is a service based economy based completely on debt financed consumer spending really a great structure to build on?

Let’s be real, markets aren’t coming back because the economy is fundamentally sound, they are coming back because they are being pumped. Markets know that Gov’t will spend any amount necessary to prop up the economy. Which is of course true, no one is willing to go through the reset we so badly need so we will come out of this V shaped, but in terrible shape.

Please name any large corporations that are failing (and airlines are not yet in that category). – Garth

#30 Ustabe on 04.27.20 at 3:42 pm

Let’s just say the Sail Away world domination tour begins now.

Sarcasm, right?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“On Sunday, the Financial Times published an in-depth look at excess mortality around the world over the last few months. What emerged was a clear indication that we’re undercounting the deaths caused by COVID-19 — perhaps by as much as 60%. ”

Please read the charts found at this link. Its not about cell phones or other ideological deflections, its about the second wave. Those interested might Google up Spanish Flu second wave.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

Personally I prefer non-pharmaceutical interventions to getting hospitalized.

#31 Ian on 04.27.20 at 3:43 pm

As always Garth, thanks for the advice. My wife and I saw our portfolios fall 11% at the bottom, we bought heavy on great companies, REITs, index funds and have seen those returns put us ahead of our pre-covid period by 4%, up almost 20% since Jan 1. 30’s no debt, baby on the way and $400K in the bank not including our pensions, and yes TSFA’s maxed. Dog is sleeping next to me, off to go change oil on my motorcycle. Life is great!

#32 Dolce Vita on 04.27.20 at 3:50 pm

Death and Taxes.

The former we all fear, same with the latter.

Yes a rebound of course. But after that you will have a Gov USA and Gov Canada with the near Debt to GDP ratio as threadbare Gov Italia. That debt will sap growth by diverting money from the economy to finance the debt and of course taxes will go up to try and pay off the debt.

Look to many years of slow growth and high unemployment as the latter lags the official end to a recession by years.

It will not end well for at least a decade unless you are debt free and invested, even then Gov’s will certainly be tapping your wallet as much and as frequently as they can get away with it.

Trust in death and taxes.

#33 Leftover on 04.27.20 at 3:50 pm

Thanks
!

#34 Guy in Calgary on 04.27.20 at 3:56 pm

After obtaining my CFP I received a good job offer back in early March but i needed to write CPH and LLQP as part of the offer. Naturally exam centers closed and I have been sitting here twiddling my thumbs waiting.

Justin had continued to say, self isolate to flatten the curve. The curve is now flat and the healthcare system did an incredible job. Let’s start getting back to “normal”.

Glad i started nibbling at equities. Portfolio almost fully recovered.

#35 Mattl on 04.27.20 at 4:02 pm

Please name any large corporations that are failing (and airlines are not yet in that category). – Garth

—————————————————————-

I guess it depends on the definition of failing.

Airlines are only not in the category because of the bailout package. They had billions in dollars of refunds in collections that were backstopped by gov’t. They most definitely would have failed, and some likely will.

Ford is in real trouble – I’d say suspending the dividend is not a sign of a successful company.

The Cruise lines may not make it out of this. They are large corps.

You suggested yesterday that half of restaurants will fail, large corps in and exposed to restaurant are going to be in trouble. In what scenario could half of restaurants fail and no large corps fail?

I’ll take that as an admission of failure. You can go now. – Garth

#36 Attrition on 04.27.20 at 4:03 pm

Sold all equities back in late Feb, as I posted here. Something just didn’t feel right or natural about the coordination of the viral reactions by governments.

All this money, all these programs, were ready to go just like that? All these Covid signs and logos printed so quickly? All these identical talking points in so any different languages around the world?

It takes weeks to get anything done in government, and yet here were these national programs in most countries that were strikingly similar–in place within days of each other.

I knew then that none of this was knee-jerk. Saying the Covid 19 and the reaction was highly anticipated is probably an understatement.

Anytime I see coordinated effort where none naturally exist, I head for the exits. Back in ’08, I missed by one click of my mouse Ford stock at $1.14 before it climbed back up to about $14. Every month, when I make my mortgage payment, I’m reminded. Didn’t want to let that happen again.

Sat on cash for about a month, then jumped back in in late March. Missed the bottom of the bottom, but close enough for a market timer like me with a paltry portfolio. This time around I eschewed ETFs for boring Index funds–Canada/USA 50/50 split for now. The index funds are up, up and away…for now.

ETFs give me the creeps–I’m not sure why. Instinct I guess, based on seeing a few go dark over the years, plus the amount of leveraging they often use.

So far, the Index fund gains have bought me a new trials bike.

(Garth – I highly recommend you take up the sport. Your abs, and every other muscle, will chisel themselves in a couple fun weeks.)

I’m now looking for a van to carry it in, rather than the hitch rack I use now. Too public, and I don’t want to tempt anyone to engage me and suggest I say home. Few could survive the verbal onslaught I’d unleash, and I rarely enjoy making adults cry.

Plus, there’s no need to flaunt my healthy hobbies when so many choose to stare out with empty eyes from the windows of their condo prisons.

And so, as I drive by on my way to the riding park (members only) with a Timmies dark roast in hand and the heavenly sounds of Tony Iommi’s Jaydee ‘Old Boy’ custom cranking that first riff of You Won’t Change Me at chassis-shaking decibels, I can only think: shelter on, Sheeple, shelter on.

Hide from viruses, hide from the markets, hide from opportunity, and hide from each other. Sheltering is what sheep do best, and it’s ok.

It’s ok.

#37 Freedom 57 (I was a slow learner) on 04.27.20 at 4:11 pm

Looks like the CRA is setting up to nail all the cheats who took the CERB payout, but didn’t qualify for it. They readily admit that nobody was turned away, but some shouldn’t have applied for it anyways. It may be 2-3 years before CRA contacts you, but when they do, they want their money, and they have many means to get it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/federal-benefits-dilemma-underground-economy-more-audits-expected-1.5544741

#38 Pete from St. Cesaire on 04.27.20 at 4:12 pm

The people whom the media and the government have paralyzed with fear to the point that they are terrified of their fellow countrymen should be able to collect disability due to their inability to be amongst others without experiencing panic attacks / PTSD.

#39 Thanks on 04.27.20 at 4:12 pm

Thanks Garth
Held on and bought some more of the oversold stocks.
Still nervous as we cannot predict the future.
You are correct there will still be ups and downs. Analyst need to understand the new normal.

But right now I am more relieved to see some provinces making a plan. And the world is opening again. May not be normal for a while but it’s will be a bright future.
Tempted to take some negative oil off losers hands just need to figure out where to store the ship. Ha ha

As for haircuts
Did you read this enterprising barber said as soon as restrictions are lifted he’s auctioning off haircuts for three weeks to highest bidder!
Smart!
And the world is made of smart people yes we will see some devastation and bankruptcies. But the smart people will be figuring out how to make money.
Already fashion companies are matching that mask to that dress. The new women in the 20s will be mysterious!

And on a good note the federal deficit might not be as high as predicted if we are phasing in now I think full steam ahead in the fall if not sooner.
Happy days are here again!
Looking forward to you doing a write up on government debt and the impacts maybe later this year when they add up the free money.
Cheers have a great week!

#40 Figure it Out on 04.27.20 at 4:15 pm

“The guy was retooling to produce 50,000/mask week.”

That’s just enough for a press release. Think about how few 50k/week is compared to 800k active cases in the US, or China’s ramped up production capacity of 110 million masks per day.

The Department of Veterans Affairs is spending almost $75,000 on masks with MyPillow, run by Trump friend Mike Lindell, according to a recent purchase order on USASpending.gov. Lindell said that the order has not been filled yet because the company has yet to find a subcontractor to actually make the masks, since the VA wants KN95 and disposable masks and MyPillow only makes cloth masks. Asked if MyPillow is going to profit off the order, Lindell said, “We’re not making one dime of profit.”

Bid on contracts you aren’t capable of filling, issue press releases, get on TV with the president. Grift 101. Company’s got an F at the BBB, company settled with the FTC after claiming its pillows alleviated all sorts of medical issues, without any proof. Grift 101.

Even if this guy was all above board and altruistic, Trump shouldn’t be running an epidemic like a reality show, or a Jerry Lewis telethon.

Do math. When Trump says they’re ramping up to produce one million test kits a week, your reaction should be “Great! that’s enough to test every American once over the next six years.”

#41 Dolce Vita on 04.27.20 at 4:18 pm

Still people here debating C19. Who cares?

People scared dungless and as Garth says, like the idea of being paid to stay home and lay low.

I mean look at “herd immunity” Sweden and all the BS coming from that country’s knucklehead Gov. Norway next door with 1/2 the population, locked down, has near 1/3 the cases, 1/10 the deaths of Sweden and is going to start opening up its economy.

I can’t imagine there are that many Swedes there saying:

“Pick me, pick me, I want to be infected, I want to be infected, yes…I do!”

You know, you need 60-70% of the population having been infected (and lived) for Sweden’s magical herd immunity.

So those of you that think C19 rates are really low, abandon lockdown, it’s a war there will be casualties…then man up (“be a man”) or woman up (or Bill C19 up) and be a Swede and let Mother Nature decide this for you:

Natural Selection.

Hands up? If not, zip it.

———————————

Meanwhile in Italia ironing out the kinks before May 4 and as usual, they are worried about their Summer Beach Culture…how you know things are looking up except for the fact Gov debt screwed beyond words…hey, what the heck enjoy what you can.

#42 Sail away on 04.27.20 at 4:19 pm

#30 Ustabe on 04.27.20 at 3:42 pm

Let’s just say the Sail Away world domination tour begins now.

Sarcasm, right?

—————–

Not really. My deepest desire was a 40% market drop and that’s what we got. Everything moved forward at that point.

The Sail Away domination plan proceeds forthwith. Can’t touch Buffett, so Munger’s my role model.

#43 Sail away on 04.27.20 at 4:23 pm

#41 Dolce Vita on 04.27.20 at 4:18 pm

So those of you that think C19 rates are really low, abandon lockdown, it’s a war there will be casualties…then man up (“be a man”) or woman up (or Bill C19 up) and be a Swede and let Mother Nature decide this for you:

Natural Selection.

Hands up? If not, zip it.

—————–

Yep, I’m in. My firm was back at it last week and we have about 80% in-office today. I’m the oldest at 48, so we’re effectively immune.

Getting a leg up on the competition before they stop slacking.

#44 Why do you think ... on 04.27.20 at 4:25 pm

people seem so scared now? A generation ago this would never have happened. Mass media? Social media? Upbringing? All of the above? More?

#45 Oakville Sucks on 04.27.20 at 4:25 pm

We love the Liberals! They’ve bought so many votes!
They set us up for a summer of leisure and play.

A) Students can actually party this year without having to worry about a job that pays them the same after taxes. Also by not working OSAP will be a lot more for them this September!

B) CERB has the minimum wage worker quitting and staying home to work full time on Exercising and Meal planning. Take note of all those fit people by summers end.

C) Farm work…Millennials don’t do that crazy stuff!!!

#46 jess on 04.27.20 at 4:27 pm

The other big deficit
conjecture………..> confidence
================
The World Health Organisation has recommended the following strains for the 2020 southern hemisphere flu season:

A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus; (strain change)
A/South Australia/34/2019 (H3N2)-like virus; (strain change)
B/Washington/02/2019-like (B/Victoria lineage) virus; (strain change) and
B/Phuket/3073/2013-like (B/Yamagata lineage) virus.

https://www.workinghealth.co.nz/all-your-flu-vaccine-questions-answered-here/

#47 Sail away on 04.27.20 at 4:31 pm

#35 Mattl on 04.27.20 at 4:02 pm

Re: corporations failing

————

Mattl, if you’re so sure the failures are coming, then why don’t you short the corporations?

Unless you’re just one of the many who enjoys talking and never acts, of course.

By the way, my small corporation is not failing by any stretch of the imagination; exactly the opposite, actually.

#48 Down and back on 04.27.20 at 4:36 pm

Thanks Garth great post, yes still lots of wildcards!

As I said previously I was down $100,000 across three accounts.
My TFSA minus 35,000 and now showing a 2 percent gain
Wife’s TFSA minus 35,000 still off by $4,000 but only two stocks are loosing as they were oversold expect gains in a few months.
My trading account down $30,000 and still off by $3,000
Again one stock oversold and a few penny stock that got hammered, but I see the light.
I had many sleepLess nights.
You were a saving grace with your hang on the ships sinking but all hands to the pumps!

#49 Linda on 04.27.20 at 4:41 pm

#14 ‘Dean’ – valid point regarding QOL (quality of life) when it comes to old age homes. Death being inevitable, never has scared me. What does scare the crap out of me it the prospect of living in an old age home for any length of time. I’m not talking those ‘retirement living’ places where the residents are able to care for themselves but the places where residents QOL can be very poor indeed.

#24 ‘Deplorable’ – the rate I quoted is based on Worldometer posted numbers of confirmed infections vs. deaths per country. The USA as of this morning was just under 1 million Covid infections confirmed; confirmed deaths at 56,000 plus. 5% of 1 million is 50,000.

#50 chumpy le chump on 04.27.20 at 4:46 pm

Garth,
Thanks to you and this blog I am on the right side of the chasm. I got divorced a few years ago during the sale of our home (at the peak of peaks in Vancouver ) and decided that i liked liquidity and hated debt.

#51 Dave on 04.27.20 at 4:47 pm

Garth,
if a vaccine is 18 months away, how quickly will the economy rev back into gear? Who’s going to want to get on a plane? Go to a show? Stay in a hotel? Get food service in a restaurant by some guy with a mask and gloves? Won’t it take the economy much longer–and therefore stocks– to rev back up?

#52 Camille on 04.27.20 at 4:48 pm

Good post, thank you. Had many sleepless nights, and worry. Lots of should I have solt out. Garth helped smooth out the worries; this one was above my pay scale as they say. Did nothing.
Run a 50/50 portfolio. Down 19% at low. Supposed to be a 30/70 portfolio – I am very risk adverse; but forced to go deeper to earn dividends and interest for income – 3.5% ex capital gains. Cost .5% plus lots of my time. Probably down 6-7% now. Cannot tell what future will bring.

#53 Buck on 04.27.20 at 4:49 pm

“ Please name any large corporations that are failing (and airlines are not yet in that category). – Garth”

C’mon, which corporation is going to tell you that they are failing? None of them. Why would they speak the truth and show their hand?

Because they’re publicly-traded and must disclose all relevant information. – Garth

#54 Nosferatu on 04.27.20 at 4:49 pm

“Growth will be back in Q3, when I can finally get a haircut and stop looking like the lead guitarist in Black Sabbath.”

I love your blog Sir but as a guitarist, was deeply hurt by this sentence. He has a name goddamit. Its Tony Iommi. And he has a severed finger on his fretting hand. He is a legend and you should know his name.

In all seriousness, if things turn out as we hope, I shall be financially independent inside of 2 years. A huge debt of gratitude to your blog for steering me in the right direction. You should get tax exemptions for this work, and I’m not kidding. thank you.

#55 CRA wants its money on 04.27.20 at 4:50 pm

To 37 freedom 57,
Thanks for the article
Yes I am grateful the CRA is going after the cheats.
But I was thinking 2.5 million on Welfare and 50 percent of population lives paycheque to paycheque.
I don’t think they will be able to get blood from a stone.
Only good thing CRA never writes off its money owed.
Personally print all the cheats names in the paper.

Wow underground economy is 45 billion imagine if we could tax that!
I think the government goofed they should have sent out food stamps and rent money paid to landlords.

But sadly that would have closed the liquor stores
On another note I see The German people said a resounding no to app trackers. I guess they know something we don’t.

#56 Coho on 04.27.20 at 4:50 pm

Who knows for sure whether things will revert back to normal or what the “new normal” will look like. I’d wager certain restrictions will remain in place to reinforce the conditioning of the lockdown mentality and to quickly institute new lockdown measures when “new emergencies” arise.

What is much easier to predict is intent. Already by way of fear and good will we have acquiesced to lockdowns and social distancing which have cost us dearly in health, finances and liberties. There are so many of us without access to health practitioners and hospital services that suffer from a myriad of chronic pain and illness. Ten million people die of malnutrition and starvation each year. There are estimates that some 200 million or more will due this year because of the way governments have dealt with C19. Do politicians, our medical overlords and MSM talk about that?

It’s about intent. The authorities asked for a foot and they’ve taken a yard. You can bet they’ll be asking for more. Things will go the way the ruling elite want them to. It’s about timing and opportunity. I wrote many years ago on this very blog that we were building our own prison through technology and that it would be used against us.

The same old master/slave mentality since time immemorial exists today although it has been better hidden. Times have never before been this dangerous. Old hatreds and lust for power and world domination with modern technology at its disposal. How can it end well for the people?

#57 Natasha on 04.27.20 at 4:52 pm

CGXEnergy is the future. 185 billion barrels of oil down in the Guiana-Suriname basin.

#58 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 04.27.20 at 5:01 pm

“The rich hold assets. The rest hold debt.

Which are you?”
————————————————————
Zero debt, plenty of assets, diversified holdings on three continents, including homes in two European countries. To boot, bought 20,000 shares of Barrick Gold in March when it cratered to below $20 and haven’t sold. Closed at $37.80 today. Do the math… and no, I am not a looney gold bug!

If you were modest, you’d be perfect, right? – Garth

#59 Jay on 04.27.20 at 5:04 pm

Lets hope we actually start reopening schools, parks, stores and restaurants in the next few weeks, without too many ridiculous rules. I can live without concerts and the stampede, but my kids need to see people their own age again, and take the childhood back.

Social media is full of scared people for some reason fighting against opening up, like they want to stay locked up forever. Any research that shows the virus isn’t as bad as its made out to be, or that living a normal life will not result in mass death is dismissed.

Lets remember the entire purpose of this economic shut down, closures and distancing measures was to avoid a huge spike in hospital cases, and to buy some time to prepare for it, not sit around until cases are zero. We bought the time, at great cost and avoided the huge spike. Hospitals are now ready and for the most part, empty and waiting.

Death rates are much lower than the models had shown. Its about free choice, those that don’t want to risk it can keep hiding in the basement. The rest of us should get on with our lives and be able to go camping, and exercise at the gym. We are responsible enough to live safely and take precautions. Open it up!

#60 Flywest29 on 04.27.20 at 5:06 pm

Have you seen the comments section over at the Coronavirus broadcasting Corp? If those fools were running things we would be all living in our basements under the covers for the rest of our lives. There are some seriously scared people there, not to mention they all have gotten their PHDs in virology and epidemiology. The CBC and MSM has done a number on the psychology of Canadians, wow. Thank you Garth again for being a voice of reason and rationality.

#61 Leo Trollstoy on 04.27.20 at 5:08 pm

Because they’re publicly-traded and must disclose all relevant information. – Garth

Sometimes I feel bad that Gartho has to explain things to idiots

#62 Jake on 04.27.20 at 5:08 pm

All assets baby… no debt! Bring it on.

#63 Buck on 04.27.20 at 5:09 pm

“ Please name any large corporations that are failing (and airlines are not yet in that category). – Garth”

C’mon, which corporation is going to tell you that they are failing? None of them. Why would they speak the truth and show their hand?

Because they’re publicly-traded and must disclose all relevant information. – Garth

##################

“Must” is the opportune word, but are they? Corporations have and continue to manipulate their numbers/information to prop up their stock value.

Has Trump, and presidents before him, always disclosed all relevant information? No.

#64 ww1 on 04.27.20 at 5:10 pm

#23 Goober on 04.27.20 at 3:15 pm
Each comment on greaterfool.ca has a unique link and all links are sequential based on time submitted.

I’ve noticed that comments will occasionally be renumbered during the course of the evening if Garth deletes earlier posts or (sometimes) apparently approves them out of order.

#65 Sail away on 04.27.20 at 5:14 pm

#36 Attrition on 04.27.20 at 4:03 pm

Hide from viruses, hide from the markets, hide from opportunity, and hide from each other. Sheltering is what sheep do best, and it’s ok.

It’s ok.

—————-

Yep. It’s hard to pick low-hanging fruit from inside your house.

Guess someone else will have to get it. Hmmmm… wonder who that’ll be??

#66 yorkville renter on 04.27.20 at 5:16 pm

me? I’m still waiting for my corporate self-directed account to be opened so I can BUY BUY BUY before it’s too late to enjoy these tasty dividends!

#67 what on 04.27.20 at 5:22 pm

@#43 Sail away on 04.27.20 at 4:23 pm
#41 Dolce Vita on 04.27.20 at 4:18 pm

So those of you that think C19 rates are really low, abandon lockdown, it’s a war there will be casualties…then man up (“be a man”) or woman up (or Bill C19 up) and be a Swede and let Mother Nature decide this for you:

Natural Selection.

Hands up? If not, zip it.

—————–

Yep, I’m in. My firm was back at it last week and we have about 80% in-office today. I’m the oldest at 48, so we’re effectively immune.

Getting a leg up on the competition before they stop slacking.
___________________________

you’re only 48?
had you pegged at late 60’s retired dude that spends all day on this blog.

#68 Sail away on 04.27.20 at 5:33 pm

#67 what on 04.27.20 at 5:22 pm
@#43 Sail away on 04.27.20 at 4:23 pm

————–

you’re only 48?

had you pegged at late 60’s retired dude that spends all day on this blog.

————–

I’m mature for my age

#69 Bobby Bittman on 04.27.20 at 5:37 pm

Boeing is dead meat already. Who’s gonna buy their commercial aircraft…. nobody. It will be on welfare for years.

#70 Freedom First on 04.27.20 at 5:42 pm

Correct a wise person and they will thank you. Correct a fool and they get angry…..-very old proverb-proven true every day on this #1 Financial Blog

Freedom First

#71 Reality is stark on 04.27.20 at 5:48 pm

Happy days are here again.
What could possibly go wrong?
All back to normal.
A tiny bit of extra debt for the country.
People not likely to pay rent for 6 months.
Many corporations only hiring back half the staff they let go.
It’s party time.
The whole thing makes me laugh.

#72 Barb on 04.27.20 at 5:52 pm

“…Mr. Market hit the bottom in the third week of March.”

—————————————-

While many folks are indeed suffering (from being overextended financially), there are lots of people with money.

#73 Lisa on 04.27.20 at 6:05 pm

Garth, can you and your valiant crew comment on Raoul Pal and his doomsday predictions.
He scared the hell out of my husband who now want’s to withdraw ALL of his money from his portfolio because, and I quote, “It’s different this time.”
It irritated me to no end, but I’m not an expert and can’t explain myself properly!
I understand him in a way as he says the market is overvalued (sounds familiar!) but he’s just so negative!
He believes in investing in BITCOIN. Sigh.
Help! Thank you! 7 year reader this year!
https://olduvai.ca/?p=52248

Rule 12: Never marry anyone who reads doomed websites. – Garth

#74 BillyBob on 04.27.20 at 6:10 pm

Someone posted a link to a Twitter video of people social distancing in Peru. It creeped me out and reminded me of a famous ad from the 80’s by a certain computer company, so I hacked a couple clips together.

See if you can spot the similarities 36 years apart.

https://youtu.be/eauqYBwh3MY

#75 Shawn Allen on 04.27.20 at 6:40 pm

You’re not allowed to question the need to tip 20% in restaurants!

#17 It can’t go on like this on 04.27.20 at 3:01 pm

It boils me blood when I see restaurants now pushing 20% tips.

********************************
That’s a “third-rail” topic. But I must ask: What other industry would condone let alone totally facilitate a system where the customers bribe the staff with off-to-the side cash payments for good service? Just asking. Well it used to be a sort of bribe or gift. Now it’s totally an obligation. An extortion. Is it not?

The closure and near-death experience of the restaurant industry should be used to rethink this practice. Pay reasonable wages to staff and forget this tipping nonsense?

#76 Wrk.dover on 04.27.20 at 6:45 pm

QE addict, Crack Ho, I don’t get involved with either.

#77 Piano_Man87 on 04.27.20 at 6:45 pm

Hair salons are re-opening in Saskatchewan May 19, along with many other retail businesses.

Sorry for doubting your predictions, Mr. Turner.

Starting to wonder.. all the modelling of COVID-19 cases was wayy too pessimistic in Canada on a province by province basis. I wonder if the unemployment projections are in a similar boat.

#78 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 6:48 pm

When will it be safe for our groundhog PM to come out of his hovel?

#79 Nonplused on 04.27.20 at 6:50 pm

You don’t look anything like Ozzy Ozborne.

You missed the best news of the day though, and that is that Trump is going to stop giving daily pressers. “Waste of time” he says. He’s probably right, but the media isn’t going to like it. What will they put on the news?

In other news I don’t know how Canada’s food banks are fairing but word is in some places in the US the national guard has been called in to keep everything orderly. They are swamped, and we are only 1 month or so in. Meanwhile farmers are plowing produce under because they can’t sell it. What this is all showing is just how important restaurants like McDonald’s were to the supply chain. I know, I know, you don’t like McDonald’s. I am not commenting on their food, only pointing out that a lot of people eat there and they sell a lot of fries. Those fries can’t just be repackaged and sold at Costco. It’s sort of like what happened to the toilet paper once people started doing all their business at home rather than the school or office. It’s not that there is a shortage, there is lots of it piling up, but it’s the wrong kind.

I can’t comment without saying something about the covid. I still can’t tell from the internet whether we are at the beginning or the end. Some reports say it is very deadly based on using confirmed cases as the denominator, and others say the actual cases are way higher and it is a lack of testing that underestimates the denominator so most people that had it either didn’t know or mistook it for a flu. In the beginning it was said that smokers were all going to die from covid but then along comes a French study that claims smokers only make up 5% of the serious cases whereas in France they make up about 35% of the general population, so now they are handing out nicotine patches to medical staff. (Although I suspect that is useless, if smoking does offer resistance it is probably because the smoke is as toxic to the virus as it is to the smoker. Sort of like Trump’s “inject disinfectant”. The virus can’t find a place to land that isn’t covered in tar.) So I would say at this point nobody really knows what is going on. It remains the case that this all could have been just a drill. I guess we’ll see. I think most of the questions will be answered by the end of May.

But I, like many others, suspect that the cure could turn out to be worse than the disease. Many of those McDonald’s workers aren’t going back until their benefits run out. Why would they? They are getting $1500 a month, don’t have to pay rent, and don’t have to work. They haven’t ever had it better. Assuming they can find toilet paper that is.

And I think I have an explanation for why the stock market is doing so well. When the economy restarts, it is going to be an excellent opportunity for big corporations with access to funding to put all the small businesses they compete with out of business for good. They will be able to restart faster and thus steal market share. Once again the rich win no matter what. It’s just like a game of Monopoly. He who ends up with the most money eventually ends up with all of it. To quote the great philosopher JC himself: ” For to him who has will more be given, and he will have abundance; but from him who has not, even what he has will be taken away.” Of course I am taking that seriously out of context, he was talking about the spiritual, but who says it isn’t a universal axiom?

#80 Flop... on 04.27.20 at 7:05 pm

Well, I don’t remember meeting them, but two friends of my family on my wife’s side passed away from COVID-19, my wife informed me when I got home from work.

An older gentleman and his son…

M45BC

#81 Jager on 04.27.20 at 7:06 pm

The question during GFC2 is not that stocks would rebound. The question is for how long and to what level? A record amount of central bank monetization has taken place to support financial assets. Record amounts of bad news and the markets move up. (This is clearly not always due to markets having already priced in the negative).
Note: Most of the current market gains reside in the top 50% of companies especially the so called FAANG’s

It seems that market fundamentals have become almost meaningless or at least very simplified. Fed monetizes then buy stocks. Fed threatens to reduce it’s balance sheet then sell stocks.

The virus was the prick that partially popped the GFC1 bubble (blown since 2008) and previous monetary missteps. A bear market crash. So the question to ask is this. When and what will cause GFC2 bubble to burst and how soon?

The monetization this time around is much deeper and more extensive and is very unlikely to provide as much kick as the previous jolt dished out during GFC1 (The law of diminishing returns).

Will it simply be another bear market crash or will we get an actual stock market crash? How is it possible to prevent this from happening? (A technological revolution that transends many industries is now required). Further, will it be in 2, 3 or 4 years before a global monetary reset is necessary?

It isn’t just that almost every asset class is extremely bloated in valuation it’s also the record amounts of debt globally relative to GDP.

Whatever occurs in the longer term* it’s a guarantee that the middle class will pay the steepest price…

* very strong deflation after short term pent-up demand ends and after that?

#82 Sydneysider on 04.27.20 at 7:08 pm

BC’s provincial health officer today again claimed a decrease in new cases, whereas the plot of new cases vs time remains strictly linear since April 1 (with 33 cases per day).

I blame myself to some extent, for passing those medical students in Physics 130. But is it too much to expect people in her position to do linear regression?

#83 Arse on 04.27.20 at 7:09 pm

I have no idea what is happening in the market. I am staying out the market for now to be on the safe side.

#84 Lysol Public Relations on 04.27.20 at 7:11 pm

For Immediate Release:

“As a global leader in health and hygiene products, we must be clear that under no circumstance should our disinfectant products be administered into the human body (through injection, ingestion or any other route).”

*However, for all deplorables in this steerage section, we encourage you to ingest, inhale and drink our products freely, as well as to insert as many Lysol wipes as possible into every bodily orifice. As a guideline, we suggest the following numbers of wipes per orifice, updated based on the latest scientific evidence:

Nasal: 35
Esophageal: 225
Anal: 850
Ear canal: 20
Urethral tract: 55

Following these guidelines benefits you by reducing pain, and society by reducing the numbers of you.

Furthermore, any deplorables here who look themselves in the mirror after such insertions and find themselves in tears may consider spraying 1 full can of Lysol aerosol disinfectant into each eye.

#85 arse on 04.27.20 at 7:15 pm

Earth will be engulfed the expanding Sun as it inflates to stop it from collapsing as it runs out of its Hydrogen fuel.
Until then it could be QE forever. The party could go on for another billion years.

#86 Scott Gaber on 04.27.20 at 7:16 pm

Yesterday, TurnerNation had some fun with the folks in the dog pound. The terms “tinfoilhatter” and worse were thrown around. Highly theatrical and very entertaining.

Then last night while checking out Crave, I stumbled across an episode of Shelter in Place hosted by Vice co-founder Shane Smith. He interviewed Edward Snowden, someone I deeply admire for his bravery in taking a stand for digital privacy. The interview focused on the intersection of the virus and Big Brother. If you have a subscription to Crave, check it out. If you don’t, the takeaway quote for me from the 22-minute interview was: “What is being built, is the architecture of oppression”. Tossed and turned for a bit after I went to bed as I digested that.

As Lambchop said yesterday – “Lots of things are unfathomable, until they’re not.”

#87 NoName on 04.27.20 at 7:17 pm

#79 Nonplused on 04.27.20 at 6:50 pm

I’ll assume that food donations are down, on my way out last week from grocery store food donations bin looked bit light so I started thinking about kids taking non perishable food to school, for food drive every so often. So same day proactively I made an online donation to food bank and Ronald MacDonald house…

#88 NoName on 04.27.20 at 7:20 pm

#84 Lysol Public Relations on 04.27.20 at 7:11 pm

800-something, Is that how much you pay for coffee enema, hipster. I can se energy levels are up.

#89 Shawn on 04.27.20 at 7:23 pm

Garth you should dedicate an entire post to Dr Ericsson’s disposition. The video now has 5.1M views and is spreading fast.

Imagine if over time they’re shown to be 100% correct? Will there be class action lawsuits against governments? There have to be repercussions…

This has been a gong show.

#90 Shawn on 04.27.20 at 7:24 pm

Dr Erickson is the correct spelling. Sorry.

#91 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 7:25 pm

So are we looking at 2 blended quarters, part very good other part very bad? Q1 pretty good until end of March, blends into an ok earning but no disaster. Same thing to Q2, April and part of May bad, with a good bounce end of May and June, sliding pretty much into somewhat subdued normal Q3.

Wall Street has to know what the earnings are coming down the line. I am sure their quants can model a few months with no economic activity.

if that’s the case, that’s probably a somewhat v shaped checkmark the index is pricing in.

#92 Treasure Island CEO - Gold Liquidated on 04.27.20 at 7:25 pm

I just financed the deal for Dana White to purchase Pedo Island. He is renaming it Fight Island.

The Covid curve is Caanda is not flattening. It is fattening and going straight up.

Why would people be scared of catching Covid? Is it because it damages the lungs, leaves scar tissue, reduces lung capacity, affect organs such as brain, kidneys, and all these other things? I wouldn’t want to catch it.

Furthermore, where is Kim Jong-Un?

Lastly, Jeffrey Gundlach is shorting the market with LQD, saying it will test new lows. I wouldn’t bet against Jeffy. He has nailed everything in the past few years.

#93 Steph on 04.27.20 at 7:26 pm

Which are you?
———————–

I thank Zeus and all other Gods I have assets and cash and was able to use the storm to accumulate even more.

Amen

#94 Shawn on 04.27.20 at 7:26 pm

The evidence supporting similarity to influenza in terms of mortality and infectivity continues to grow…

#95 Physics 10 ... on 04.27.20 at 7:30 pm

#82 Sydneysider on 04.27.20 at 7:08 pm

I blame myself to some extent, for passing those medical students in Physics 130. But is it too much to expect people in her position to do linear regression?
———————————————————–
Pie are round
Cake are square

#96 EmmEmm on 04.27.20 at 7:43 pm

contrary to this blog’s advice, I bit the bullet last Thursday. was down 27K in my portfolio by mid-March. sold for 30K and change and came out a little ahead. Yes, I chickened out and Garth may shake his head reading and approving this post but honestly with all the uncertainty going around, I wanted to cover my losses.

if the market blips again, I will enter. if not, I still will, at some point.

#97 AK on 04.27.20 at 7:46 pm

“Stocks up. Man, this drives some people nuts.’
=====================================

– Short sellers, Day traders and Dart throwers.

#98 Drill Baby Drill on 04.27.20 at 7:50 pm

“Which are you ?”
I am a taxpayer about to go into retirement.

#99 Owl Eyes on 04.27.20 at 7:51 pm

“ It was shocking, disruptive and hurtful, but also temporary. Markets and investors get this. Growth will be back in Q3, when I can finally get a haircut and stop looking like the lead guitarist in Black Sabbath.”
First, there is that structural issue of consumer debt bubble that the shut-down might have acted as pin to; second, there are vast sectors that will not come back until international and inter regional travel opens up in (who knows how long? But not by end of summer I think); third, the Black Sabbath look is cool.

#100 Colin on 04.27.20 at 7:56 pm

I agree with you Garth about the people who missed a buying opportunity.

But don’t you think there will be one more?

I do. Summer is always summer, no matter what. Stocks go down. This time, I think there will be another significant drop, maybe by August. Even better, if it happens in October, fools will think this is another 2008 crash or worse. Then things will really rocket upwards into 2021.

One more buying chance ahead people, don’t miss it.

#101 MF on 04.27.20 at 7:59 pm

#92 Treasure Island CEO – Gold Liquidated on 04.27.20 at 7:25 pm

“Why would people be scared of catching Covid? Is it because it damages the lungs, leaves scar tissue, reduces lung capacity, affect organs such as brain, kidneys, and all these other things? I wouldn’t want to catch it.”

-Agreed fully with your post. These people with permanent damage to lungs and other organs are all listed as “recovered” for all the stat junkies on here.

After we start re-opening this thing will spread again like crazy, like it has been anywhere re-opening has been attempted.

We kind of have no choice though, so the race is on for treatment.

#94 Shawn on 04.27.20 at 7:26 pm

It’s the total opposite. The evidence is now showing this thing attacks other organs besides just the lungs. This is not a flu. As for that Dr you mentioned, I guess everyone’s using this to try and make a name for themselves. My guess? He will probably have a brand new youtube channel and instagram page selling his treatment to go with it very soon.

MF

#102 conan on 04.27.20 at 8:01 pm

I am cautious til mid fall of this year. I want to know if Covid 2.0 is worse than 1.0. Plus, a whole of bunch of other variables. Too much irrational exuberance in the markets right now. What is there to be happy about?

#103 DD on 04.27.20 at 8:03 pm

The rich hold assets. I’d say the assets will soon be taxed. Trudeau will borrow from the NDP playbook on new revenue generation, and it won’t be pretty.

#104 Deplorable Dude on 04.27.20 at 8:09 pm

#40 Figure it out.

Lol…you need to see a doctor, you gotta bad case of Trump Derangement syndrome. I post one sentence and you respond with an essay.

#105 Deplorable Dude on 04.27.20 at 8:16 pm

#49 Linda The USA as of this morning was just under 1 million Covid infections confirmed; confirmed deaths at 56,000 plus. 5% of 1 million is 50,000….

…….

Lol in that case BC’s death rate is 10% based on that methodology…

You need to get a handle on how many have actually been infected, not those just that reported symptoms.

Antibody testing…NYC doing it big time. Indicates 25% of population infected. iFR of 0.5% and that doesn’t include under 18’s, so will keep dropping as they do more testing.

#106 PVS on 04.27.20 at 8:17 pm

#56 “The same old master/slave mentality since time immemorial exists today although it has been better hidden. Times have never before been this dangerous. Old hatreds and lust for power and world domination with modern technology at its disposal. How can it end well for the people?”

A close look at the history of the modern world provides plenty of evidence of significant improvement in many aspects of life during the later part of the 20th century to the present day. The media today accentuates fear and problems without much thought to perspective and healthy dialogue. The wise see and hear through the fog and noise.

I mostly agree with Garth on the potential for personal and economic growth in the post pandemic world moving forward. Consider that quality of life has improved for many around the world over the last few decades. As a result, even higher living standards and expectations for the good life are put in focus. This is not say there is not plenty of inequality here in Canada and especially beyond. It is simply a reality check for most of us privileged to consider and debate these current problems and hopefully better understand where we are heading as a people who hold hopes and dreams for a better tomorrow.

Life is exceptionally good for many today and this is good as long as those with the means do their part to help and encourage others to meet their tomorrow on better footing. The sun waits behind the clouds.

#107 Frustrated Mom on 04.27.20 at 8:26 pm

Meanwhile teachers get full salary to not teach our kids. Parents are left to themselves to do all the work. Where is our cut of the pay for doing the job?

Stay at home moms don’t receive any of this government assistance money, even if they would have gone back to work at some point, and they have to teach the kids full time school, serve as lunchtime supervision (which we are still paying the school for).

Cant wait until the fall when teachers, encouraged by the unions after their cut of the government funds, will refuse to work due to unsafe work environments around kids, unless of course N95 masks, hazard pay and a max classroom of 15 kids are provided. Need to hire many assistants and more teachers, pile on the debt!

#108 Don Guillermo on 04.27.20 at 8:32 pm

#78 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 6:48 pm
When will it be safe for our groundhog PM to come out of his hovel?
********************************************
He’s a one trick pony and his polling numbers are rising. Why would they stop until they see polls trending down.

#109 BS on 04.27.20 at 8:33 pm

COVID-19 to spur depression ’10 times worse’ than 2008: Rosenberg

“If we call ’08 and ’09, the ‘Great Recession’, this is 10 times worse at any level. How is this just a plain little recession?” Rosenberg said.

“Depression is something that happens every century but the definition is that this will cause a secular shift in attitudes in terms of how we live, how we work and how we travel, and the approach toward debt and spending. This is going to be a long-lasting impact here.”

I am with Rosey. This thing is far from over.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/covid-19-to-spur-depression-10-times-worse-than-2008-rosenberg-1.1427819

Rosie has always been apocalyptic. So far wrong. – Garth

#110 The Mandrake Mechanism on 04.27.20 at 8:36 pm

If you can influence the leaders, either with or without their conscious cooperation, you automatically influence the group which they sway

I Like numbers – they show behavior past, present and future.

And you will know Bonnie Henry and her Fluevog shoes ($339 per pair plus tax) by the Fentanyl trail of her dead. She will ride the citizens long and hard as she spikes your buttocks with her Operetta heels. The Covid Cowgirl rides again complete with fringed Lone Ranger mask that would even make Orville Peck sweat with anticipation. Here’s Bonnie’s Fentanyl numbers:

-2014 (91), -2015 (153), -2016 (667), -2017 (1,226), -2018 (1,334), -2019 (833)

How about the Covid numbers for Canada in general….

3/27 (39), 4/4 (231), 4/11 (653), 4/27 (2,804)

Woe to you o earth and sea, for the devil sends the beast with wrath…
…and more fun with numbers you little devils….

BMO – 101.25 (2/21) 69.81 (4/27)
ENB – 55.41 (2/21) 29.66 (4/27)
Loblaw – 69.92(2/21) 75.00 (4/27)
MG – 69.63 (2/21) 50.40 (4/27)
RY – 108.00 (2/21) 84.95 (4/27)

Who cares about large Corporations – unless you’re playing in the casino – it’s the small to medium businesses that hire the majority of workers, and pay the tax. You want the future? Pay attention to your American masters. Pay attention to their death rate. Pay attention to their debt, their earnings and their bankruptcies.

What is your plan when you get your last CERB cheque in July? How do you pay back a $40K loan (less $10K) when your business is shuttered? You can’t turn on the Canadian economy in a flash. Defer defer defer. Print print print fiat. Covid has destroyed the confidence of the consumer. It’s the little guy that got screwed, not the big guy.

Here’s a benchmark – when you can cross the us/cda border back and forth then you’ll see relief. Pay attention.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.20 at 8:39 pm

@#55 CRA wants its money
“I think the government goofed they should have sent out food stamps and rent money paid to landlords.
But sadly that would have closed the liquor stores.

-$-$-$-$-$

Totally agree about food stamps and rent paid directly to landlords……however, I think people would roll up their coins, max out their plastic, and beat an old lady at a bus stop for her purse …..to get a bottle.

#112 Armpit on 04.27.20 at 8:39 pm

Is that graph 2/3rds of a “V ” or 1/2 of a “W” ?

Stay tuned!!

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.20 at 8:45 pm

@#67 what?
“you’re only 48?
had you pegged at late 60’s retired dude that spends all day on this blog.”
++++

Nah,
He’s doing well, own’s his own company, the employees know their jobs and don’t need a great deal of direction, his time is his own…..so he comes here to kick the hornets nest in “steerage”.

#114 Figure it Out on 04.27.20 at 8:52 pm

I’m having trouble understanding your overall thesis, Garth.

If:
– household debt was bad before, and
– it’s getting worse, and
– unemployment is up, and
– taxes will be going up, and
– consumer spending (much of it discretionary) is much of the economy

…Then why would we expect new highs in the stock market, before household balance sheets are deleveraged?

Where did I say new highs? – Garth

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.20 at 8:54 pm

@#84 Lysol sales team
“Nasal: 35
Esophageal: 225
Anal: 850
Ear canal: 20
Urethral tract: 55”

++++
President Trump has assured us a few sips of disinfectant was a joke.
However.
You missed a few orifices…..time for an updated list.
Please ensure that “Oral” precedes “Anal”

#116 THE DEBT LOVER on 04.27.20 at 9:06 pm

There is an EXTREME DISCONNECT between the markets and the economy.

The earnings report that will come out DO NOT reflect the effects of COVID.

Those will be reflected in Q3 and Q4 and will be ugly.

Employment rate is 30% in North America and will get worse.

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE NEXT BLACK SWAN STRIKES SOON & FEDS ARE OUT OF OPTIONS??

Were all in for a back-hand of MEGA proportions.

Brace for impact!!

Markets will CRASH 50% minimum.

#117 Doug in London on 04.27.20 at 9:16 pm

Mr. Market hit the bottom in the third week of March.
—————————————————————-
That’s what I said in a past posting, that it was at or near bottom then. Yes, it could drop back some but if you’re waiting for a drop to the lows of march you could end up being disappointed. I don’t know why more people weren’t frantically piling in as much money as possible during mid March when the sales were at their best. The stock markets had actually shut down and stopped trading a few times. I figure it’s because for every sell order there were at least 1000 buy orders from greedy investors like me, and the system couldn’t handle it.

#118 GrumpyAuldScott on 04.27.20 at 9:16 pm

Math?
26800/37000000= 0.000724 * 100 = 0.0724%
.007%= .00007*37000000=2590.
Did I miss something?
COVID is not over yet. Its going to circulate all over the world and it will be back. So far we have dodged a bullet but our low infection rate could hurt us in the future if/when a subsequent wave of the virus comes back.
Economic cheer leading is pre-mature in my opinion.

#119 Lokytre on 04.27.20 at 9:29 pm

These are early days so too early to jump to conclusions. Will take at least 2-3 years for this to work its way thru the system, so a bit early for self-back slapping and congratulations about how the worst is over. Expecting at least 2-3 more craters and new lows over next 12 months.

#120 Paul on 04.27.20 at 9:33 pm

#75 Shawn Allen on 04.27.20 at 6:40 pm
You’re not allowed to question the need to tip 20% in restaurants!

#17 It can’t go on like this on 04.27.20 at 3:01 pm

It boils me blood when I see restaurants now pushing 20% tips.

********************************
That’s a “third-rail” topic. But I must ask: What other industry would condone let alone totally facilitate a system where the customers bribe the staff with off-to-the side cash payments for good service? Just asking. Well it used to be a sort of bribe or gift. Now it’s totally an obligation. An extortion. Is it not?

The closure and near-death experience of the restaurant industry should be used to rethink this practice. Pay reasonable wages to staff and forget this tipping nonsense?
————————————————————————————————
Actually the tips mostly are paid by plastic not cash on the bill so a percentage (small) goes the the credit card company plus its income tax exposed.Plus there is a thing tip out that goes to the kitchen, the bus staff and the restaurant owner or manager takes a cut.

#121 ResidentPsych on 04.27.20 at 10:08 pm

#113 CEF
@#67 what?
“you’re only 48?
had you pegged at late 60’s retired dude that spends all day on this blog.”
++++

Nah,
He’s doing well, own’s his own company, the employees know their jobs and don’t need a great deal of direction, his time is his own…..so he comes here to kick the hornets nest in “steerage”.
————————————-

In other words, he is a weirdo with a need to continually prove himself to a bunch of anonymous people on someone else’s blog. And CEF wants to be just like him.

#122 Highlander on 04.27.20 at 10:08 pm

#109: Rosie has always been apocalyptic. So far wrong. – Garth***thank you Garth- steady hand on the wheel***tugboat wheel no less :)

#123 Nonplused on 04.27.20 at 10:10 pm

#120 Paul

“Actually the tips mostly are paid by plastic not cash on the bill so a percentage (small) goes the the credit card company plus its income tax exposed.Plus there is a thing tip out that goes to the kitchen, the bus staff and the restaurant owner or manager takes a cut.”

————————

That was all true at 10%. But now the minimum wage is up. The only reason to tip 20% is for extraordinary service or if you are hitting on the waitress.

Tipping is a weird thing. Why not pay them more and put it in the prices? The concept comes from the US, not Europe. In the US it was not uncommon that waiting staff did not get paid at all and their tips were their livelihood. That is not the case here or even there in the now.

I haven’t been to Europe in years, but last I was there tipping was considered rude. The cost of the serving staff was included in the price.

#124 flop... on 04.27.20 at 10:12 pm

McGILL Univ: Free Online Course – PERSONAL FINANCE ESSENTIALS
Deal Link:https://www.mcgillpersonalfinance.com/Price:FreeRetailer:McGILL – In collaboration with RBC Future Launch and The Globe and Mail

M54BC

#125 Brumbled Potatoes on 04.27.20 at 10:21 pm

Simple question Garth, Canadian dollar: up or down by the year’s end?

#126 Don Guillermo on 04.27.20 at 10:28 pm

#107 Frustrated Mom on 04.27.20 at 8:26 pm
Meanwhile teachers get full salary to not teach our kids. Parents are left to themselves to do all the work. Where is our cut of the pay for doing the job?
*****************************************
Hmmmm … teachers, bouncers and snow board instructors all sitting at home with full pay. Something suspicious going on.

#127 I believe everything on Television on 04.27.20 at 10:38 pm

T2 told us we face 18 torturous months of 2nd and 3rd waves and wavelets. Does that mean we collectively pull another quadrillion from the World Bank ATM?

#128 Classical Liberal Millennial on 04.27.20 at 10:39 pm

3% of active cases are serious or critical. Not every critical case dies. You do the math. The province hit hardest, Quebec, has reopening plans starting May 11. We should start phasing in May long weekend, Canada Day, and then finish the reopen process with school in September.

#129 VicPaul on 04.27.20 at 10:42 pm

#69 Bobby Bittman on 04.27.20 at 5:37 pm

Boeing is dead meat already. Who’s gonna buy their commercial aircraft…. nobody. It will be on welfare for years.

*********

Possibly – but I think more likely, because of the duopoly they share with Airbus, the desire for healthy competition will help resurrect them – sooner than later.

(Business credentials….none)

M56BC

#130 Faron on 04.27.20 at 10:53 pm

So, what are the ways to close the gap between the well-off and the struggling? In the last decade, that gap has been partially filled by personal debt growth effectively simulating real wage increases and the capital appreciation of real estate that some have cashed in on and many others are going to watch vaporise in coming months. What are the policies needed to help rebalance the wealth gap somewhat? And without stifling the economy?

First, get the cost of living under control.

One idea would be to restrict non-resident ownership through zoning. You are allowed to own one home you are going to live in and if you want a second home without paying a large spec tax, it has to be in a region with vacation home zoning. Anything else gets the crap taxed out of any capital appreciation that occurs and is subject to spec. tax upon purchase. I was looking for a rental last year and was shown a place by a frantic (Alberta) couple who seemed frazzled that they had just taken on a massive loan and were going to need renters to cover those costs barely if at all. It was hard to feel sorry for them given that they are investing in housing in a community they have no interest in.

Foreign ownership needs to be severely restricted through an even higher foreign buyer tax. Those implemented in Van and Tor forced material declines in housing prices if temporary. I’m sure loopholes will be found, but something needs to be done. And, yes, it is a problem. I’ve read papers stating 5%-10% foreign ownership rates and that is plenty to skew a housing market.

Air BnB needs to be subject to the exact tax and regulatory framework that hotels are and use should be limited to rooms in owner or renter occupied residences. Or it should be illegal.

If there’s any housing market after all of that is implemented, the generated taxes should go toward creating affordable and rent controlled housing including sufficient temporary housing for a city’s homeless. The growth in homelessness in Victoria has been very noticeable over recent years as it has been in Vancouver, Portland, Seattle, Los Angeles and likely other places on the warm side of the continent. Sure there are addiction issues, but those that were on the brink, but could afford a $600/month bachelor pad then watched that price double in a few years are in their numbers.

#131 TomMac on 04.27.20 at 10:59 pm

Claiming we’ve made a bottom and up further from here is a bold prognostication Garth. I certainly am not ruling out a third leg that will make new lows. Just like the current opinion tug of war between coming inflation and deflation, you just can’t call the equity markets right now.

#132 Faron on 04.27.20 at 11:01 pm

The S&P closed at 2878 today. The same level it was at on August 26th, 2019. Yeah, 8 months ago. Given that there is a tough and very uncertain fight ahead and some serious thrashings in earnings, corporate stability and consumer confidence does this really make any kind of sense? Yeah, the market is forward looking, but in August last year when the market was in the same position, was there anything nearly as predictably long-term and dire as there is now? No. I can’t see the market going anywhere but sideways for the next several months.

Of course, this doesn’t matter to long term investors, but it’s going to induce a lot of fear in anyone prone to bailing out when the news gets bad.

#133 Long-Time Lurker on 04.27.20 at 11:10 pm

>If China is having outbreaks now and if they are occurring due to imported cases then Canada will have to continue legally quarantining all travellers coming into Canada or else outbreaks will start happening in Canada as well. So the future is Dubrovnik?

Is China fighting a second wave of coronavirus? Beijing shuts gyms and a city of 10million people is put in lockdown

-China has shut downs gyms and swimming pools in Beijing amid fears the country is vulnerable to a second wave of coronavirus.

-It comes just days after the communist regime quarantined a city of 10million people in its north west region near Russia

-And on Saturday China’s northwestern province of Shaanxi reported seven new imported cases coronavirus, all in citizens returning home from Russia.

By TOM PYMAN FOR MAILONLINE

PUBLISHED: 19:37 EDT, 25 April 2020 | UPDATED: 01:15 EDT, 26 April 2020

China has shut downs gyms and swimming pools in Beijing amid fears the country is vulnerable to a second wave of coronavirus.

It comes just days after the communist regime quarantined a city of 10million people in its north west region near Russia and on Saturday China’s northwestern province of Shaanxi reported seven new imported cases coronavirus, all in citizens returning home from Russia.

A second outbreak would be a setback for President Xi Jinping who is trying to restart the nation’s economy and present an image of power to the rest of the world.

Beijing claims that the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases in China, where the virus first emerged in late December, is now 82,816. The death toll remained the same at 4,632, with no new deaths reported on April 24.

But there is widespread disbelief at those figures across the globe from Western leaders who accuse Beijing of letting coronavirus spread across the globe while its leaders saved face….

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8257519/China-shuts-gyms-swimming-pools-country-battles-second-wave-coronavirus.html

#134 Long-Time Lurker on 04.27.20 at 11:10 pm

Dubrovnik: The medieval city designed around quarantine

The Lazarettos of Dubrovnik are a reminder of the city’s foresight in combating infectious diseases centuries ago.

By Kristin Vuković
22 April 2020

…Across the Adriatic Sea in Ragusa (present-day Dubrovnik, Croatia), however, the city’s Great Council passed a ground-breaking law in 1377 to prevent the spread of the pandemic requiring all incoming ships and trade caravans arriving from infected areas to submit to 30 days of isolation. The legislation, Veniens de locis pestiferis non intret Ragusium vel districtum (“Those arriving from plague-infected areas shall not enter Ragusa or its district”), stipulated that anyone coming from pernicious places must spend a month in the nearby town of Cavtat or the island of Mrkan for the purpose of disinfection before entering the medieval walled city. “Hence, Dubrovnik implemented a method that was not only just and fair, but also very wise and successful, and it prevailed around the world,” Milošević writes.

Isolation and discipline are the two important things

Co-author Ana Bakija-Konsuo, MD-PhD, added that Dubrovnik was the first Mediterranean port to sequester people, animals and merchandise coming from infected areas by sea or land, keeping them separate from the healthy population, while Venice stopped all ships and trade, halting life in the city. The Ragusan Republic imposed very strict punishments and fines for offenders who did not follow the 30-day quarantine law (trentine, as the term was written in a document found in the Archives of Dubrovnik, dated 27 July 1377). In the beginning, quarantine was 30 days, but it was eventually prolonged to 40 days as in Venice…

http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20200421-dubrovnik-the-medieval-city-designed-around-quarantine

#135 TurnerNation on 04.27.20 at 11:50 pm

Where’s the beef. Remember that only one type of plant is being closed all over N.A. Meat plants.
I’ll say it again. Tech companies rule the world. Everybody else is a distraction. E.I. *A.I.* O.

Impossible Foods Inc. is a company that develops plant-based substitutes for meat products
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_Foods
Impossible Foods has raised rounds of $75 million and $108 million from investors including Google Ventures, … and Bill Gates.[53]
In August 2017, $75 million in additional financing was raised after reaching key objectives,[56] with Bill Gates investing additional money.[57]

#136 NFN_NLN on 04.27.20 at 11:59 pm

#29 Mattl on 04.27.20 at 3:41 pm
“Banks are not wobbling nor big corps failing”

Please name any large corporations that are failing (and airlines are not yet in that category). – Garth

1. ACB.TO / Aurora :)
2. Heavy oil sand producers that run out of cash before demand recovers; ie CVE.TO / Cenovus

How do I collect my prize? Do I just email you directly?

#137 the Jaguar on 04.28.20 at 12:56 am

@#79 Nonplused on 04.27.20 at 6:50 pm
” In the beginning it was said that smokers were all going to die from covid but then along comes a French study that claims smokers only make up 5% of the serious cases whereas in France they make up about 35% of the general population, so now they are handing out nicotine patches to medical staff. ”

This is the crux of the matter. Increasingly everyone is becoming convinced that we are not being given all the facts and we are being treated like children, i.e. the health and government officials will tell us what ‘they’ feel we are entitled to know. This will only encourage revolt and rebellion and bad behaviour overall.
It’s amazing to me that given our advanced stage of civilization, (we are in the year 2020), with several ‘previous worldwide pandemic’ scares behind us,( SARS, etc) and with well funded self important organizations such as the World Health Organization, as a global community coming to grips with a global crisis we are so totally out of sync with statistical reporting. Seems somewhat basic that to solve any problem a deep dive is required, which means the consistent and uniform reporting of cases, hospitalizations, who died, direct causes, and importantly what were the key findings based on who was affected or died. It should be uniform world wide, but this is not the case. I include this link from a reputable UK source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30922-3/fulltext

Why are countries like UK and USA counting ethnicity attibutes but we are not? Why do the Brits consider this to be essential and we do not? This is why I asked Shawn Lewenza the question about why Calgary had so many more cases than Edmonton despite similar population numbers. He did not respond. ..As of today Calgary numbers are 3257 versus Edmonton 484. That is 6.79% more cases. City populations are similar. I’ll hazard a guess and say the number of temporary foreign workers in Calgary is significantly higher than in the north of the province. No blame, all are hard working people, but Alberta is a known for its non support of unions which also makes it easier to bring in lower wage workers, etc. Walk into any Tim Hortons, Sunterra, etc. , Cargill & two other meat plants already identified by the media and observe the common characteristic in evidence. Given the current changes implemented to international flights landing in Calgary and increased provincial monitoring the airport arrivals cannot be the reason for the disparity. If I am wrong about that then provide the statistical data to refute it.
If most cases/deaths are from retirement/seniors homes, then tell us what comprises the significantly higher numbers in my city where we are anxious for restrictions to be lifted. Do we have so many more seniors and vulnerable than Edmonton? I think not.
I look at the numbers in BC, which would have received more inbound flights from mainland China in the early stages of the crisis before restrictions and they are so much lower than Alberta. 1998 cases in all of BC as I write this versus almost 4000 in Alberta.
This really requires more development and transparency. Again, if you want to fix a problem you need to understand the root causes, and when there are huge discrepancies in statistical reporting it only invites distrust. Ignore distrust at your great peril would be my advice to government and health authorities. Many (including myself) want the economy re-opened for business.

#138 morrey on 04.28.20 at 1:10 am

There is still a lot of existential threats about …

How to save the human race from extinction:
If coronavirus doesn’t kill us, what about climate or AI? Here’s why we must get serious about saving the world.

https://on.ft.com/3aFRyhH

#139 Jane Blanchette on 04.28.20 at 1:16 am

BANNED

#140 KNOW IT ALL on 04.28.20 at 1:17 am

WHAT LETTER comes after “V”?

Don’t jump to soon – the storm ain’t over.

The eye is hovering over us so we just think were in the clear.

Once it starts to move again it’s going to catch a great many off guard that thought they had MOTHER NATURE figured out.

Don’t say you weren’t warned……..

#141 Jorge Orwell on 04.28.20 at 2:10 am

What will happen is a resetting of the global economy to post WW2, 1950s level. Conspiracy theorists will maintain that this was manufactured as the only way the OECD deomocracies led by NATO can keep control, as they were about to be steamrolled by China in a no growth phase characterized by quantitative easing. Whether conspiracy or not, a few few themes emerge from this:

The world order will revert to the top countries from the 1950s, maintaining their place at the top of the heap, primarily NATO members.

China will get displaced from the top of the global supply chain and most likely replaced by India. China may implode economically and politically and become fractured into 3 or 4 smaller friendly pieces, kind of like Taiwan.

Poor underdeveloped regions such as in Africa, Asia and Latin America will emerge even poorer.

The big shooters will also use this opportunity to rid the world of tin pot dictators such as in North Korea, Venezuela, Zimbabwe etc.

Organized religion will fall by the wayside, as the elite will enforce social distancing indefinitely as the new normal and use technology instead of religion as the opiate of the masses.

#142 Jimers on 04.28.20 at 2:11 am

Garth,

Not sure if you have covered this topic before, but erosion in ETFs? I know commodity ETFs, especially Bull/Bear; 2x, 3x funds like Horizon can suffer from it, from re-balancing. But how do the standard ETFs compare?
TIA

#143 Robert Ash on 04.28.20 at 2:37 am

I can only comment that Garth has much more experience in Financial Asset management than I do…..and I would vote for a Deflationary period… of 2-5 %, in real GDP terms…. It seems to me, that Bank Stocks for example, were in some cases over $ 100.00 per share, and are now considerably less, to trade today…
I did find an interesting article, as Linked Below.. some of the comparisons, I found interesting, given the real time difference… Tech advances ..low interest rates,Globalization. etc.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-we-in-for-a-repeat-of-the-long-depression-2019-11-27
As a very inexperienced Investor, I think one piece of advice I have considered, is timing the market is impossible, but maybe it is better to enter on an Upswing, with a few quarters of more conservative trends…after the Covid experiences/results are more definitive.
That’s what makes Investing interesting, interesting.. My concern, is the lack of basic Governance… Seems, there is a lack of Corporate discussions around Productivity improvements, or new factories, or process, or partnering, or intellectual property enhancements… That is what I can’t see, reminds me of the Dot.Com bubble, just no real fundamental metrics… remember people hyper investing in companies, that had never even had one operating period….

#144 Rural Rick on 04.28.20 at 3:40 am

Just stay the course with a balanced portfolio. Trying to time things is silly. – Garth
===================
Any jumping up and down on this sailboat would be unwise. Stay the course and stay at home.

#145 John on 04.28.20 at 5:20 am

Once the smoke clears it will be interesting to see which companies have merged with the state.

#146 Sail Away on 04.28.20 at 7:04 am

#121 ResidentPsych on 04.27.20 at 10:08 pm
#113 CEF
@#67 what?

“you’re only 48?
had you pegged at late 60’s retired dude that spends all day on this blog.”

——————

Nah,
He’s doing well, own’s his own company, the employees know their jobs and don’t need a great deal of direction, his time is his own…..so he comes here to kick the hornets nest in “steerage”.

——————

In other words, he is a weirdo with a need to continually prove himself to a bunch of anonymous people on someone else’s blog. And CEF wants to be just like him.

——————

Sigh…

So misunderstood.

I’m here as a public service to show what happens in real time when one acts instead of just talking. Well, I definitely do talk, but then act and provide accurate followup.

This is a finance blog and my interests include:

Finance
Business
Taxation
Investing
Capital preservation
Successful people
Logical analysis
High-octane bird dogs

…among others, of course.

The truth is that a person can have it all. They just have to be willing to do the hard things. For example: Read. Learn. Make mistakes. Avoid emotional decisions.

#147 Jackie Zip on 04.28.20 at 7:17 am

140 Know It.

Oh yeah, let’s call it for what it is. Let’s call mortgage holders other than what they are, dog crap wrapped in cat crap. Condo owners have no income, they can’t pay. Individual homeowners have been paying interest only and now they have to defer? Do I have to go on? The Trudeau Cash is a smoke screen. The economy is in flames. Trudeau can’t run out another tranche of 200 billion in give away job security. This is nutz !!! There is a housing collapse staring you in the face. Media pundits are saying immigration will soak up the excess !! Will 400 thousand newcomers replace 400 thousand SME going broke? Malls are going bust. REI.un is in life support with zero rent being paid. Hello !!!! Did you watch The Big Short? Watch it !! 40 cent CDN or less. BB- credit rating. Oil dead. Mining dead !! RE was all that kept Trudeaunomics floating. It’s gone !! Burning Platform !! Get out. Raise Cash !!

#148 Sail Away on 04.28.20 at 7:24 am

Good news: Tesla holds big lead in technology:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2020/04/27/vw-admits-tesla-lead-software-leak-internal/amp/

#149 Wrk.dover on 04.28.20 at 7:30 am

A couple of years ago, the new trend in the Caribbean vacation countries was consumer credit for car loans, seeing North America was saturated, I suppose.

Previously the fleet of cars in these places was small and the average ride was a beat up junker. Not so, the last two years though. All polished and new, over crowding the roads greatly.

I wonder where all the repos will go. Back to China from whence came the cash? Just an uneducated guess.

#150 Captain Uppa on 04.28.20 at 7:51 am

Little birdie told me that the owner of most TO commercial real estate is ready to dump 1/3 of it onto the market.

#151 Former Navy Chief on 04.28.20 at 7:55 am

“Everybody is getting a cheque of some kind. It’s astonishing.” – Garth

Not this guy! Former military, now public servant. We qualify for absolutely nothing…not that we’re hurting or anything, or that we’d take any handout if it we offered.

Managing to keep our debt level low and hanging onto our modest savings and ETF-based TFSA.

Buoy, am I glad I chose the right career path when I was eighteen years old!

Does anyone want the address of the nearest Canadian Forces Recruiting Centre?

#152 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.28.20 at 8:13 am

@#121 ResidentPsych
“And CEF wants to be just like him.”

++++

I am just like him…..

P.S. ….its ok, you can call me fartzy, CEF sounds a tad formal…..

#153 Dharma Bum on 04.28.20 at 9:10 am

History will tell us if [governments] went overboard or the message was justified. – Garth
——————————————————————–

If they went to far, I will sue them. I will sue Trudeau and Doug Ford. Yes I will. For punitive damages. Yes, that they’re giving to me! I have solid legal advice saying that I can. Right here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhjBlPucpd0

#154 BrianT on 04.28.20 at 9:17 am

#49Linda-even the really nice “independent living” places aren’t so great as a result of this virus-a friend of the family went into a really good one-she was healthy early 70s just lonely so I guess she wanted company-anyway the place is a mix-she was fully independent-cooking her own meals in her apartment-this thing hits and the first thing they did was ban anyone from leaving the property-you could not drive your car off the property-so you are stuck in this large building and you can roam the property-then they went to Level 2-everyone was forced to stay in their rooms! I couldn’t believe it when I heard it-she was forced to scramble and moved out to an apartment building-she said it became like an insane asylum-and mind you this was the nicest retirement home you can imagine. So anyway all these places are permanently downgraded IMO.

#155 looking up on 04.28.20 at 9:18 am

With all this stuff happening I was hoping to pick up a GTA rental property. Prices haven’t come down at all.

I don’t get it….

#156 BrianT on 04.28.20 at 9:33 am

#51Dave-I am not saying the economy has not been hammered but what people are missing is that a service economy is a bit of a zero sum game-all that money you note people are not going to spend on that stuff can either be saved (unlikely) or spent somewhere else. Example: you arent going to restaurants so now the money you have you pay a guy to put a deck on the house. The money spent doesn’t change-just who gets it.

#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.28.20 at 9:38 am

@#151 Former Chief
“Buoy, am I glad I chose the right career path when I was eighteen years old!”
+++

Haha Love the “nautical jibe” there.
Is it true you start at 18 and retire with a 25 year pension at 47?
I also read somewhere the Canadian military has at least one beaurocrat/pencil pusher/ officer for every combat soldier?
(I include, of course, hired subcontractors that push paper for the military such as SNC Lavalin….hoovering up millions of $$$ to “middle man” simple processes….because they contribute thousands of $$$ to re-election campaigns… I’d say not a bad return on their “investment”)

Crazy.

#158 Jay on 04.28.20 at 10:35 am

Trudeau announced that he’s now giving money to seniors. Didn’t we just shut down the economy to save them? How have retired seniors expenses gone up? They can’t go anywhere, do anything or drive anywhere just like the rest of us.

#159 Nah on 04.28.20 at 10:43 am

@#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.20 at 8:45 pm
@#67 what?
“you’re only 48?
had you pegged at late 60’s retired dude that spends all day on this blog.”
++++

Nah,
He’s doing well, own’s his own company, the employees know their jobs and don’t need a great deal of direction, his time is his own…..so he comes here to kick the hornets nest in “steerage”.
____________________________

Nah,
He’s definitely an old bugger with too much time on his hands. kinda like you.

#160 all scam all the time on 04.28.20 at 10:44 am

if you buy the DOW you are buying socialism… printed higher by the US FED. Markets will hit new record highs when the silly vaccine is developed…then new lows when the big war scam starts.

#161 Keen Reader on 04.28.20 at 11:03 am

Military pension is 2% per year, unreduced after 25 years of service. Starting at 17 y.o. (military college), one can retire at 42 y.o. with 50% salary, based on his/her best five years. If doing well career-wise, that could mean a $70K pension at first. Indexation kicks in once age+years of service = 85.

This may seem like a good deal, but keep in mind that someone leading a similarly big group of people would likely make much more money on the private side. Also, I count 20+ fairly close colleagues who died in operations; they don’t get to collect much on their pensions, although surviving spouse gets half. Many more have long-term disabilities to deal with. But that was the deal, and our choice, upon joining.

#162 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.28.20 at 11:05 am

@#155 I dont get it
“Prices haven’t come down at all.
I don’t get it….”

+++

Its only been 6 weeks since the closures started.
Give it 6 MORE weeks.
The April numbers will be an eye watering slap in the face.
Should get those negative $$$ numbers next week.

Millions on the dole.
Thousands of business still closed of out of biz.
Billions in tax revenue evaporated.
Govt helicopter money “lend lease” program out of sugar….

Yep.
July 1st will be interesting with fireworks and no one to watch them…..

The show must go on.

#163 TurnerNation on 04.28.20 at 11:14 am

#74 BillyBob that video is coming here soon. In the past year they tried so hard selling the closing of major Toronto streets to vehicles. The plan is to dial us backward, to 2nd/3rd world standards: rickshaws and tuk-tuks and bikes for us pesants.
Guess what now the Virus has allowed them to do just that. Amazing how this virus dovetailed with the UN’s goals.

Expect lines of people 6 feet apart, cameras watching overhead; the prison shuffle. This is not a medial practice it is a prison practice.

https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/04/toronto-close-some-curb-lanes-make-room-pedestrians-parking/

#164 not 1st on 04.28.20 at 11:24 am

Trudeau’s lavish handouts risk turning workers into welfare slackers

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/john-ivison-trudeaus-lavish-handouts-risk-turning-workers-into-welfare-slackers/ar-BB13jniM?ocid=spartanntp

#165 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 04.28.20 at 11:41 am

35 Million jobs lost between US and Canada alone.

That’s like the entire Canadian Population out of work.

No one paying their bills.

No one buying stuff and yet markets are heading North.

This is not going to be a recovery of such that anyone has been alive to tell us about. The only comparison is 1929.

The onion is slowly being pealed back and it’s going to sting your eyes like never before.

Nothing lasts forever…… just remember that.

The unemployment is largely temporary, not structural. Remember that. – Garth

#166 Figure it Out on 04.28.20 at 11:54 am

#148 Sail Away

If all the Tesla greatest hits videos I’ve watched, this is my current favourite:
https://geekologie.com/2020/01/tesla-on-autopilot-crashes-into-back-of.php

The software has identified a thing and avoided hitting it, but then completely forgets about the thing — which hasn’t moved — and runs into it.

So the software has NO memory, no state or object persistence. It’s amazing how well it works, when it works, given that. But rearchitecting their stateless neural network to incorporate memory would be a giant undertaking, and they’re obviously only doing incremental improvements currently.

So the thing now recognizes traffic lights and stop signs, usually. What if the light or the sign on your usual route home from work is missing one day?

#167 Faron on 04.28.20 at 11:59 am

#142 Jimers on 04.28.20 at 2:11 am

Garth,

Not sure if you have covered this topic before, but erosion in ETFs? I know commodity ETFs, especially Bull/Bear; 2x, 3x funds like Horizon can suffer from it, from re-balancing. But how do the standard ETFs compare?
TIA

——————————

Index tracking ETFs that hold equities won’t/can’t have a problem as long as there isn’t anything fishy going on in the background (there isn’t). The market for ETFs among the financial firms is highly competitive, so anything with a too high MER (DesJardins) isn’t going to attract funds and may have to close if the fund isn’t profitable. In the case of closure, I think the holder can opt to take cash or the underlying holdings as shares in some cases.

Non equity ETFs are a different bag and can get squirrely. Bond holding ETFs trade on stock exchanges while their underlying assets trade elsewhere and by a different process. This can lead to strange bid/ask spreads and large NAV/price differences.

The leveraged and inverse ETFs are based on derivatives of some kind and those can go to unexpected places when the markets are pushing the fringes. The negative oil price for the May contract partially arose because the USO etf was creating new units and thereby buying and holding a large fraction of the May contracts. When the time to roll those contracts over came, there was a need to sell a huge number of May contracts and there weren’t enough buyers because there was no where to put the stuff and earn money. Like household garbage, there’s lots of supply and zero demand so you pay to have it taken off your hands. The prices crashed hard negative essentially making the ETF units worthless.

Bottom line: don’t worry about ETF stability if you are holding plain Jane equity ETFs. Be cautious with derivative based ETFs because they may become exposed to untested fringe markets and behave erratically with your dollars attached.

#168 morrey on 04.28.20 at 12:15 pm

another view —
“In reality, the sooner and more completely we restore the old economy, the faster we simply recreate the conditions that got us sick in the first place and rendered us incapable of mounting an effective response.” — https://bit.ly/2zEDqZn

#169 Faron on 04.28.20 at 12:20 pm

#166 Figure it Out on 04.28.20 at 11:54 am

#148 Sail Away

————————————–

Oh man, I love that video. My guess is that its neural net classified the car transport as an upward sloping highway/driveway. Look at how the lines converge as if you are looking down a long empty road. Image recognition must have won out over the lidar. A Tesla has to be able to enter a steep driveway when the lidar will be telling it that objects are close and getting closer and I bet this is what it was “thinking”. Tesla saw the Mustang’s brake lights go off and thought it was time to pull in. Maybe the truck brake lights, which were low to the ground, weren’t visible to the Tesla’s cameras?

“What if the light or the sign on your usual route home from work is missing one day?”

This is the fun part. Another thing that could happen is overt sabotage. I read a journal article about images that can be created that look like nothing to a human but that will make an image classification system (like Tesla’s) see a stop sign and think “toaster”. Curiously, it only takes a small image to ruin the whole scene. So, one could construct such a spoof to say “tree” to Tesla and put it on stop signs and such and ruin everyone’s day. Of course, this came out a couple of years ago, so the issue has probably been addressed.

#170 Faron on 04.28.20 at 12:24 pm

“The unemployment is largely temporary, not structural. Remember that. – Garth”

Yet, as the shut-in lingers, the structure will steadily erode and it wont be until the reopening and when money begins to flow again that we know how rickety it has become.

#171 belly rubs on 04.28.20 at 12:28 pm

Re-investing in our business, not the stock market, has netted us 18% yoy. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Orders up over 900% since February: Gardening supplies. Personally, I can’t think of a publicly traded company that has the moral fortitude worthy of my investment.

Thanks for the urban perspective, gotta go…

#172 Lorne on 04.28.20 at 12:33 pm

#155 looking up on 04.28.20 at 9:18 am
With all this stuff happening I was hoping to pick up a GTA rental property. Prices haven’t come down at all.

I don’t get it….
……
Just remember…those prices you see are simply “asking” prices. Throw in a low ball offer to really see where the market is.

#173 Wrk.dover on 04.28.20 at 12:37 pm

#160 all scam all the time on 04.28.20 at 10:44 am
if you buy the DOW you are buying socialism… printed higher by the US FED. Markets will hit new record highs when the silly vaccine is developed…then new lows when the big war scam starts.

——————————-

The Dow is a Welfare Mother!

#174 SOMETHINGS UP on 04.28.20 at 12:38 pm

The unemployment is largely temporary, not structural. Remember that. – Garth

—————————————

WRONG – This is the “Great Economic RESET”.

IT HAS NOW BECOME STRUCTURAL.

What was once before is not going to be the same.

Technology (Amazon), Retail (Walmart), Uber Eats (food delivery) will become the new norm.

Goodbye Mom & Pop everything.

You and Rosenberg should get a room. – Garth

#175 Penny Henny on 04.28.20 at 1:19 pm

Crazy Theory? Humour me on this Garth, what do you think.
Okay so someday in the future (hopefully soon) restaurants will be allowed to re-open.
The most popular of the restaurants (The Kegs and such) will see all kinds of interest because these are peoples favorites. The problem for them is these restaurants will not be able to run at the same capacity because of social distancing rules so they will have to turn business away.
The other issue will be long line ups, but really who wants to wait a couple of hours to be seated?
So these frustrated consumers will seek out other dining options such as Jack Astors.
Now prior to this virus thing Jack Astors was probably not running anywhere near full capacity and with the social distancing rules, we will no doubt see in the short term for restaurants, will probably mean all restaurants will only run at 50% capacity max.
Long story short same store sales should not take a huge hit for SRV but the same cannot be said for the Keg, their same store sales will be down big.

#176 Rally? on 04.28.20 at 1:25 pm

By your estimation, Garth kind sir, how many corporations and businesses would be wiped out without nearly $8 trillion USD printed out of thin air and poured into the markets by G10 countries in the past 45 days coupled with 0% or negative interest rates? The market is not standing up on its own 2 feet and hasn’t for more than a decade. Many businesses, bank branches and retail locations never coming back. How can this not be considered “structural” ? Not healthy enough with free money, to survive a 30-60 day shutdown?

Seriously how can any of us pretend those socialist policies in a capitalist market have not prevented a drop of over 50% by now? Buffet and his crew calling money in this rally “dumb money”. Pulled my dumb money out on Friday after an almost surreal and completely unexpected 30% pop from where I got back in late March. All of this enthusiasm and jubilation made absolutely zero sense this soon. Markets are light years ahead of themselves.

I’ve never heard of a 3 week bear market and recession, have any of you?

#177 SunDays on 04.28.20 at 1:32 pm

This is a very tricky virus indeed.

I can walk into a Walmart store to buy a hockey bag, while the next-door Canadian Tire store is closed.

Any virologists here to explain?

#178 Sail away on 04.28.20 at 1:59 pm

Well, dividends continue to stack up, regardless of world shutdown. What to do with the cash?

Thinking equally amongst TSLA, GEO and IEP. BAC is compelling as well..

GEO and IEP pay around 16% dividend and have done this regularly for quite some time.

Any guesses about tomorrow’s TSLA earnings?

Also, don’t forget to stream the Berkshire AGM on Saturday: https://finance.yahoo.com/BRKlivestream/

#179 not 1st on 04.28.20 at 2:08 pm

The doctors in the vid Garth deletes are saying there are mass numbers of infected out there and a small death rate associated with it just like the flu and if we just keep testing they will find more and more cases, get scared and shut it all down again. The economy will never open at that pace. Its the ultimate chicken and egg. Testing solves nothing and will just breed paralysis.

Sweden has already proved you can do some light social distancing without destroying your economy. And with a PM in hiding I can see why people getting a little bone from the govt wont want to go back to work and will just start lobbying for UBI.

Its going to be a mess of a social experiment.

Some guy on BNN today apparently saying Canada will have a 1.7T deficit this year and will grow by 20% a yr for the next 2 yrs. That’s 2.4T. The dollar doesn’t survive that and neither does our credit rating.

#180 Attrition on 04.28.20 at 2:40 pm

If you want to study the limitless mysteries of the universe, you don’t need a telescope or satellite dish. You need only to study the pyramids of Giza.

Stay calm: I’m not suggesting they’re of extraterrestrial origin, just that their builders were clearly in possession of mathematical, physical, and geological knowledge we have yet to rediscover or master.

To say Giza is mysterious is an understatement. You could spend several lifetimes studying it and still not find the answers, but they’re there. If you’re into the unexplained, Giza is where you start.

Which brings me to Covid 19.

There are also many mysteries surrounding this pandemic. Too many. Fortunately, as with Giza, there is only one thing we need to study to find all the answers we need.

The Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

If you don’t know that this document foresaw government using health events to infringe on our rights and affect our mental health and well-being, you should probably read it.

It’s interesting when you realize that these founding documents were created to protect us from EXACTLY the situation we now find ourselves in.

If those who wrote the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, and the U.S. Constitution for that matter, foresaw the ways in which those in power would try to abuse the rights of citizens, surely it’s worth a look. It might even be important.

And it’s all right there, right under our noses.

#181 Blog Bunny on 04.28.20 at 2:58 pm

This pandemic exposes the hypocrisy of the political class. There are so many double standards.

I can get stuck in a lineup at Costco, where the parking is chock full, while a pastor preaching to people confined in their cars in Ontario is harassed by police.

There is a war on religion hidden behind this. That’s why I refuse to cooperate with this government and I refuse to help them. They were asking for additional health care workers – screw them. Screw the lockdown.

Angry Bunny.
The real bunnies sleep peaceflly and do not care.

#182 Ustabe on 04.28.20 at 3:01 pm

The truth is that a person can have it all. They just have to be willing to do the hard things. For example: Read. Learn. Make mistakes. Avoid emotional decisions.

#183 Ustabe on 04.28.20 at 3:10 pm

Whoops, an elbow posting! The above should have been followed with:

The fear of making a mistake is what holds most folks back.

A few years ago I got into a conversation with a couple of guys in the bar. You certainly would not these fellows moving in next door. Rough is almost an understatement.

Using my contacts in the food industry and some of my money we, against all advice from wife, friends, my advisor, etc, entered into an arrangement.

That arrangement is ongoing and returns mid 5 figures to me yearly for doing nothing. Well, I write one cheque a year. Then a few months later I deposit my original cheque amount and a month or so after that we divy up the rest. Every year…from now until the restaurants in LA are all closed.

#184 Steven Rowlandson on 04.28.20 at 3:25 pm

” That the number of active cases of the virus today (26,800) amounts to .07% of the Canadian population seems moot. Folks don’t care. They’re scared”

I must be different from the Canadian population because I am offended at the inconvenience of being off work and denied the amenities that make being homeless tolerable. Washrooms, showers, libraries, Tim Horton’s dining rooms. Good access to power and Wifi , access to stores and restaurants without being treated like school children doing a fire drill. Lack of normal access to tax and medical clinics when I need them sucks also.
Then the local governments and their house proud snitches love to persecute the homeless trying to seek refuge on crown land or trying to keep their electronics charged up. I came close to getting a ticket today for trying to access electricity for my computer and parking at a park. Those Canadians who are scared of something one billionth of their size need to grow up and grow some brains and gonads and get this country back to normal. Quit being Chicken Little!

#185 Changes ahead on 04.28.20 at 3:54 pm

I thought to buy condo, but this type of high rise buildings are no loner attractive due to:

1. Risk with next pandemics.
2. Glass walls are cheap to construct, but is expensive to maintain.
3. Maintenance fee is too expensive, because the property management is typically not efficient.
3. Earthquake issue. This will be our next “COVID” disaster. The high rise supposed to be designed as earthquake resistant, but many of them are vulnerable to seismic risk, due to rush design and construction.
4. Many people move from the large cities if they can (and likely will be required to work remotely so that the companies could reduce the RE cost). Inexpensive taxi without drivers service will soon emerge and support this tendency.

Also, remote nature of work will lead to think about the amount of company management that is really required. Many middle managers will lose their jobs when companies will change the way they operate. Competitive companies will become lean, companies will get rid off people who are not self-sufficient to work remotely, independently, accurately with minimum QC.

Companies will consider to sub-contract many activities to have flexibility.

Once employees get used to remote work without management supervision and become self-sufficient, they will become small businesses.

Public Transit large capital projects will receive less funding. Instead, more roads and parking facilities will be built.

#186 paulo on 04.28.20 at 4:17 pm

#176 penny henny:
Truth of the matter is that prior covid many if not all restaurants where dealing with declining sales and rising costs primary caused buy the following; 1) over indebted consumers cutting back eating out. 2) a massive over saturation of restaurants.
this virus event will cull the weak and marginal players likely 30% of the restaurants, after things restart with social distancing and peoples reluctance to go out i would think 20% more failures would be a reasonable
assumption for a minimum of 50% of current restaurants diapering.

#187 Sail away on 04.28.20 at 4:25 pm

#171 belly rubs on 04.28.20 at 12:28 pm

Re-investing in our business, not the stock market, has netted us 18% yoy. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Orders up over 900% since February: Gardening supplies.

Personally, I can’t think of a publicly traded company that has the moral fortitude worthy of my investment.

————-

Yes, often the personal company provides the best return. Especially when using the corporate tax environment within the company.

The issue I’ve run into in the past is that the company is self-sustaining; it’s fine to retain earnings for additional growth, but that all stays within the company and extra funds are at some risk to lawsuit or unexpected expenses like Covid, so I’ve drawn off and invested separately.

Now, though, I’m in process of reconfiguring the firm as a Buffett-esque umbrella corp. May discuss it further in a future post.

#188 Snoopy on 04.28.20 at 4:56 pm

Well Garth is on record with his views, right or wrong he has put them out there. I’ll put my “steerage” views out there so they are on record, for derision or praise or whatever. Within the next two months (let’s say by July 1) the markets (I follow the SP500/DJIA/Nasdaq generally) will be off 60% to 80% from their current levels.

Happy to eat my words if this turns out to be incorrect.

You will. – Garth

#189 bruro on 04.28.20 at 9:35 pm

Dead cat bounce. :)

#190 Doug in London on 04.28.20 at 10:10 pm

Worried people are not risk-takers. They eschew investing.
——————————————————-
Yes, I can see here in the comments why some people do well at investing while others don’t. Many here in the steerage section are expecting some big drop to occur again, so they wait and an opportunity to get in and ride the market up passes them by. I’m sure many so called investors were waiting for that second drop in April 2009 and missed the ride back up back then also. Yes, I’m baffled by shoppers that wait outside in the cold to get those Boxing Day bargains but won’t dive in head first on a buying blitz when stocks are on sale.