The cost

It’s been a month, more or less, since the emergency began. Consequences pile up.

Few aspects of life have escaped change. Civil liberties, for example, have been slashed. So far most people are willing to trade unemployment, inconvenience, long hair, hug deficits, closed borders, self-anointed cops and draconian rules for what they’ve been told is a reprieve from death-by-virus. Politics are being altered. Trudeau’s approval rate has soared. Trump’s is faltering. Public finances may be changed for a generation or more. Your child’s child will still be paying Covid taxes. Airplanes won’t be fun anymore. Mass events are done. Packed bars and open-concept offices may be a year away. Or more.

Financial markets panicked and crashed 35%, bounced and have retraced half that loss. Balanced portfolios did their job and losses are modest. Interest rates crashed and will stay that way for a long time. Mortgages fell in price then crept higher as lenders smelled risk. The jobless rates spiked wildly and government support payments have ballooned. Many small businesses won’t open again. Airbnb is toast. Half the restaurants are gone forever. Hotel occupancy is 5% or less, with most shut. The health care system held, but many folks missed surgeries or cancer treatments. All the schools and government offices shut, but no teachers or civil servants were furloughed. Some people wonder about that.

In short, we’ll long remember 2020 and its lessons. Did government over-react? Was the media irresponsible in its pandemic panic? Was public opinion manipulated? Or will this be a triumph of society, arresting a killer bug in its slimy little tracks? And might this be the end of a globalized world where the next health crisis rides a routine flight into YVR or YYZ?

One thing’s for sure. We offed the economy.

Canada’s GDP could be 15-20% lower in the next few months (that’s 1930s levels), with a third of the workforce on pogey and a majority of mortgagees asking lenders for relief. Here’s a snapshot: the Broadview-Danforth business association, in a frantic part of Toronto, asked members how long they can survive during the current emergency (some will qualify for the rent relief Ottawa has announced). Half could not pay April rent and 72% said May would be impossible. Over 70% of landlords said they missed receiving April’s full rent and 82% expect nothing next week.

Worse, 61% of small business owners believe they’ll be roadkill within three months, and 76% will fail within five. Ouch

Yes, politicians are pouring on billions in borrowed money, but recovering from the emergency will take a lot longer than most expected, or can survive. Provinces say it will take months just to get barbers or dentists working, with restricted retail operations allowed and no eateries or pubs as in the past. Given all this, an unemployment rate of 15% or so will not fall back to 5% for a wicked long time. Government deficits will be gut-wrenching. Taxes rise.

And what of real estate, where so many Canadians park all of their net worth?

Not so hot.

In this past month in Toronto, for example, detached home sales tanked by 73%, condo sales declined 76% and townhouse deals collapsed 90%. Buyers are retreating, sellers are withdrawing listings, and realtors are running around in facemasks, nitrite gloves and booties as they madly FaceTime the few prospects left.

Here are the sales stats for Ottawa:

Calgary and Edmonton are disasters, with the residential markets reflecting the chaos and vacuity of the commercial market. We told you about Vancouver on Friday – where prices are expected to decline by up to a third – and meanwhile the BC realtors’ association is forecasting a deep recession and sharp decline in home prices. Bad news in a real estate-lusty province where $22 billion a year was generated by house sales.

Amateur landlords everywhere are being creamed. Many bought units to rent out short-term, but visitors and tourists are gone. No sense trying to rent them residentially, since cash flow is marginal or negative. Selling’s the only option – but no market in which to do so. What once held the promise of cash flow and capital gains is now mired in the morass of illiquidity.

While this occurs, thousands of people who bought in February and early March are trying to get out of closings in April and May. (Good luck with that.) Others who bought firm with existing homes face a market without buyers and the potential for financial ruin. Others purchased in March when prices were cresting, only to have the properties appraised for less this month. That means a lower mortgage, and the need to cough up extra cash.

In short, this ain’t a pretty picture. Given what now appear to be structural changes in the economy (high jobless numbers, business failures, increasing tax, reduced mobility, oil price plop) why should we expect buyers to leap back into action? How is it logical a robust market and rising prices can co-exist with the post-pandemic detritus? Beats me.

One month, and all this.

Let’s hope we, at least, saved humanity.

 

291 comments ↓

#1 Flop... on 04.26.20 at 2:06 pm

#79 TurnerNation on 04.25.20 at 11:24 pm

#50 Flop… this is the future. From Peru a short vid how they do social distancing. The armed man directing it all at :20 in is a nice touch.
This is not a health practice, it is a prison practice. Life as we know it is over.

//////////////////////

I’ve been trying to keep things as normal as possible.

One of the lower earners on here, I still like to have 2 or 3 budget holidays a year.

It gives me something short-term to look forward to.

Spring Break didn’t take off, still haven’t received a full refund from the travel insurance company.

The next one I normally do is some camping in the summer.

I like to camp in Washington State.

Will I be allowed to cross the border in August?

Time will tell.

If not in B.C if all the provincial parks are still shut I will try a free camp beside a river.

That might be a finable offence too.

What’s the chances the let the forest fires rage this summer to keep us out of the backcountry…

M45BC

#2 squire on 04.26.20 at 2:15 pm

Foist.
The real estate companies and their propaganda will never end. Even if we have 50% unemployment they will say it’s a “great” time to buy. It’s going to be a wicked lesson for many soon. If not, already.

#3 Chris on 04.26.20 at 2:27 pm

Garth i do agree with you that Vancouver real estate prices will fall, i don’t think a 33% decline is gonna happen. Canadian gov’t will do everything possible to provide a floor in prices. I hope you are correct though as I am only in liquid assets :)

#4 THE DEBT LOVER on 04.26.20 at 2:31 pm

The fortress surrounding CAPITALISM has crumbled!

Finally the tide went back out to sea and the only ones who benefit are the wealthy – the exact ones who created the laws to benefit themselves.

“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” – Baron Rothschild

#5 Shawn Severin on 04.26.20 at 2:37 pm

DELETED

#6 rentin on 04.26.20 at 2:42 pm

I think the number of lives saved with these drastic measures is arguably nil. It could be negative.

For:
– Reduced deaths to covid by flattening curve
– Reduced deaths due to air polution (short lived effect)

Against
– Increased deaths due to critical surgeries canceled
– Increased deaths due to higher stress for people
– Increased deaths due to nutjobs dressed as police officers

I think what we can see is how people forgot what price we pay for having better lives through outsourcing poverty and polution.

This today, is the bill that comes at the end of a lavish dinner; WTF? we spent $2,000 on wine?

#7 ArcticOutback on 04.26.20 at 2:48 pm

Daily reader for years, infrequent poster. Thank you Garth for running this incredible blog!

Has anyone else noticed traffic picking up lately? It will be interesting to see how much longer the Government can keep folks physically distancing, especially as the weather improves. Cottage owners will be especially inching to get away.

#8 Michael King on 04.26.20 at 2:49 pm

Maybe your best essay yet re: the pandemic and its economic/financial effects. People will need a reality check now and then until this is over. Thank you Garth and your colleagues for keeping the blog going. Thanks also to everyone posting comments. They make for interesting reading seven days a week.
Here’s a supplemental piece, mainly about the US.
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-crisis-worse-fear-c88158d2-64a3-4da6-a85a-cc6556a6207d.html

#9 Trojan House on 04.26.20 at 2:55 pm

Not sure if real estate sales are “not so hot.” At least for new builds. Standing in the social distancing line today at Home Hardware, the lady in front of me started up some small talk.

She said she works sales for a new builder. They put a new subdivision up online yesterday morning. It sold out in 3 minutes. Yes, 3 minutes! Online! Site unseen! It seems the coronavirus hasn’t stopped new home house lust.

#10 Do we have all the facts on 04.26.20 at 2:56 pm

I live in Peterborough (90,000 pop) where there has been one death contributed to the Covid 19 virus. The majority of people I talk to are certain that it was the lockdown that avoided hundreds more.

When I suggest that our Government compare all deaths over the past six weeks with historical mortality rates to determine a more accurate picture of the true impact that the Covid 19 virus has had in Canada I am met with astonished stares.

What if it turns out that the number of additional deaths that occurred during the imposed lockdown was only slightly higher than historical averages? Would that mean that lockdowns will become the norm every flu season or would it indicate that Covid 19 might not have been as deadly as predicted.

One thing is certain and that is all Canadians have paid a very high price to implement strategies designed to protect us from a threat that has yet to be measured against mortality rates based on actual facts. Counting the number of dead without historical contexts seems somewhat irresponsible to me.

We deserve better from our elected governments.

#11 Leftover on 04.26.20 at 2:57 pm

Waiting for the standard -30% drop in real estate prices during a recession might prove pointless. This time it could be worse.

If you live in Vancouver, who, exactly, do you think is going to be able to buy that $4 million house? Is it even worth $2 million? While the government can print money, consumers can’t, they actually have to pay back their debt. The longer it goes the worse it’s going to get.

I honestly don’t think it’s a government/media plot, but it’s suspicious when there’s a dog-pile on any remote indication of an emerging clinical solution.

It is very likely that actual infections are orders of magnitude greater than reported cases, and even the stellar Dr. Henry suggests that while not a certainty, once infected thus immune is the norm. If powers that be try to suppress that notion, then it’s time to worry.

#12 Ernest on 04.26.20 at 2:59 pm

hug deficits… is this a Freudian slip from our fearless leader?

Yes, hugs. You miss ’em? – Garth

#13 AlMac on 04.26.20 at 3:01 pm

On lessons learned.

I am not holding my breath that an objective post-pandemic review will be conducted as those that advocated and implemented the restrictions and response (politicians and their CMOs) are convinced that what they did was right and will be loath to criticism given the gravity of consequences on the population and economy as Garth has outlined.

I have given up modelling this event in Canada as the lack of available data continues; my first projection on April 3 of total deaths in Canada of 2200-3300 is now looking light. I suspect that range would have tracked higher if I was able to parse out the significantly higher rates in the LTCFs.

#14 not 1st on 04.26.20 at 3:02 pm

Trudeaus day is coming. Once the cheques end, the jobs don’t return, there is no tax revenue coming in or even places left to tax, the 1% have moved money out, the dollar drops to 55c and Canada gets a downgrade to BBB. Then we will see how pretty he looks.

I will go a step further. Canada will crack at the end of this because Trudeau will go after some place to tax that doesn’t offend his base and that will trigger a constitutional crisis. The west is already moving toward the US to create an oil economic zone. Its only a little step further to create a real economic union.

He will be in the history books as the guy who lost a G7 country. Bank on it.

#15 Marco on 04.26.20 at 3:05 pm

What is Canada GDP? How much money Government spent in crisis (figures and percentages)?
How much of GDP stays in Canada?

#16 Emile on 04.26.20 at 3:10 pm

I’m glad I took a vacation last November to Europe. Ain’t flying there these days, with the 14 days of extra vacation quarantine at the end…

#17 Felix on 04.26.20 at 3:12 pm

Thank you for the excellent, illuminating photograph.

The intelligence of cats as demonstrated here in effective social distancing will be a major part of saving humanity from this virus. We are your super heroes.

You will all owe us, big time. (Don’t worry, we have plans already in place for how to recoup our resulting well-deserved entitlements)

On the other hand, not only are dogs stupid and disgusting but they are a big part of the Covid-19 problem in cities right now.

Instead of letting them poop and walk in their own backyards, low IQ dog owners are taking them on the streets for needless walks, impinging on social distancing everywhere they go. About half of dog owners also have them on long leashes, increasing this problem. (*Check your local bylaws, dog owners. Most cities have limits of 2 metres for leash length, precisely to increase social safety. Yet half of you dog-worshipping doofus-es have illegal, extended leashes which make sharing streets and sidewalks dangerous for other humans even without a virus.

Not to mention the incredible degree of filth and bacteria in the fur and face of the average dog out there. This is affecting communities from Lunenburg to Victoria.

Dogs will destroy humanity, like Bitcoin. Cats are like balanced, diversified portfolios, which will save you all.

#18 Linda on 04.26.20 at 3:14 pm

‘no civil servants or teachers were furloughed’. That must be at provincial or federal levels for the civil servants, because they sure have been laid off at the municipal level. As for teachers, hard to determine whether any have been laid off. Does the description of ‘instructor’ mean that employee is a teacher? How about ‘teaching assistant’? Certainly layoffs have been announced in Alberta that included those designations. Also, when is a layoff not a layoff? When your employer announces you won’t receive a layoff notice, but won’t necessarily be called upon to do any paid work for the foreseeable future. The nature of contract work being, if you don’t perform any work you don’t receive any income.

#19 Ejy on 04.26.20 at 3:17 pm

I am not willing to go into “hug deficits”, nor is my dog, and I abhor the mass mentality, the group-think and blind allegiance to leaders (who do not know what real adversity is) and who supposedly know best. Every second person on the is an expert on the virus, frenziedly checking their news through facebook or terrified cdn media…). Maybe Orwell had Canada in mind…

#20 baloney Sandwitch on 04.26.20 at 3:21 pm

Garth, Very downbeat post today. Are you OK? This is not the worst we have faced as a nation. Keep things in perspective, its just a couple of months off. we will recover.

#21 april on 04.26.20 at 3:23 pm

#10 – According to reports this is a new virus…right? they knew it was very contagious but not much more hence the lockdown. The usual winter flu is well studied and has a vaccine plus antibiotics so no need to lockdown.This thing attacks heart, kidneys, and brain besides the lungs.

#22 Ejy on 04.26.20 at 3:24 pm

No, we have sacrificed humanity in order to (or at least as the terrified masses who do not know real adversity believe) save a few humans in rich countries, while hundreds of millions of poor are at serious risk of malnourishment or death by starvation as the flow of goods and trade plummets due to covid-19 restrictions.

#23 YouKnowWho on 04.26.20 at 3:26 pm

Is anyone else angry? I’m angry.

The US and Canadian MSM is just insane!

I hope all of you have gone on youtube to listen to the clip that Trump said about UV light and bleach.

Here is a guy, President no less, in an open stand up meeting setting, brainstorming and throwing ideas, and he’s being chastised for it?

We live in a world where ideas and suggestions are frowned upon? He even suggested that doctors should look into it.

What is happening? He said nothing about lysol!

If I smoke cigarettes I’m injecting nicotine into my system! To inject doesn’t only have one meaning. Are people illiterate?

I mean, we drink water and it has chlorine in it. Clearly there is a safe/tolerable chlorine level in the body. We swim in pools with chlorine that kill diseases and transmission. Could an inhaler with precise dose of chlorine deliver this ideal dose to targeted area? Perhaps. Could those dumb e-cigarettes finally be used for something good and deliver vapour with precise dose of chlorine to lungs? Maybe.

UV Light? Could thin UV LED lights be pushed into the lungs instead of giant ventilators tubes? I’m reading that 97% of those over 65 on ventilators die, so what the hell are they even doing the whole ventilator song and dance for? Liability? If you have a 3% success rate, that’s basically a pointless effort – save the ventilators for the 40-64 year olds.

These are all ideas he offered and the liberal MSM spun it to hell. It’s crazy. Unless you have better ideas, shut the hell up and think. I think these two have potential actually. I mean 97% kill rate of those over 65 on ventilators is something we should keep doing instead?

Trump pulled the funding from WHO and they crap on him. Few days later they realize he’s right about WHO.

And who the hell is that Canadian WHO doctor? Bruce Aylward? What the hell is up there?

I don’t know what the heck is going on with the media here, but I’m starting to think Chinese media is more free and reasonable.

#24 PVS on 04.26.20 at 3:30 pm

“All the schools and government offices shut, but no teachers or civil servants were furloughed. Some people wonder about that.”

Last time I checked, teachers were asked to work from home and students are continuing their studies while earning credits. As for other civil servants, better to earn some of your pay working from home than not working and collecting government support until being recalled.

I wonder how it would make sense to lay people off to help pay for people who already are.

Keeping the most people working during this crisis makes cents for the whole economy.

#25 Dominoes Lining Up on 04.26.20 at 3:32 pm

At this point I am a little surprised by the RE markets in Toronto. When I drive through midtown most days I am seeing homes listed and then “sold” within just a matter of days for the most part. Same for the condos I have seen listed. Not as many listings for sure, prices seem similar, but not a lot of laggards so far. Not what I expected, frankly.

Maybe this is phase one of reopening a late “spring” market and we’ll see repercussions later, hard to say right now. I think the fall may be different at least.

On another note, it really seemed like yesterday was some kind of ‘Rebellion Saturday’, something that I think will increase each week now.

Not only were there those people protesting on the lawn at Queen’s Park, but I was stunned at how busy malls were. The nearest WalMart had a crazy long lineup outside, about 500 metres of people spaced apart, and a full parking lot. Maybe it’s partly weather, but at least in the less affluent parts of the city people are out spending on whatever, maybe they have to. I did notice this weekend that in more affluent central parts of Toronto I drive through, like Forest Hill, Bayview and Leaside, retail things are still quite quiet. Maybe those folks have already stocked up and don’t feel the urgency to go out shopping, but it is definitely different. But in lots of more average parts of the city, seems like people just gave a middle finger to restrictions yesterday and went out.

#26 Paul on 04.26.20 at 3:35 pm

After all the carnage, lost lives, jobs, relationships, changes to the world. All the blame on Politicians, Airlines,Dog walkers, bench sitters, on and on why isn’t the World isn’t screaming at and about CHINA

#27 Lost...but not leased on 04.26.20 at 3:38 pm

From Local TWITTER ….in BC

—Apparently a Toronto YouTuber says AirBnB hosts are crying for a bail – out ?

—-A local lawyer posted that of the commercial landlords he knows so far approx. 30% of their tenants have given up…WILL NEVER OPEN AGAIN.

—Also, another landlord said the commercial rent assistance is a joke…too much red tape , effectively a temporary band-aid…aka a waste of time and not interested.

—-Local Realtor re: Residential Real Estate..even if interest rates go to zero…people will not buy until they feel they have secure source of income and thus not interested.(which translates into years ?!? as people will feel burned and a long time to heal ….)

#28 YouKnowWho on 04.26.20 at 3:38 pm

76%?

Jesus.

I thought 30%.

The you said 50% if independent restaurants, and I though…yeah, I can see that.

76%? I mean, with no revenue…it makes sense too. Danforth is full of restaurants, who’s going there now? They can’t survive on 50% of historic levels.

Brutal.

#29 Ace Goodheart on 04.26.20 at 3:39 pm

RE: Residential real estate:

Listings and sales have disappeared here in Toronto, but prices have not budged.

When I go on bungol.ca I find the same Bloor West offerings, for the same prices. It is quite incredible to watch this.

For example, this home has been for sale, in one form or another, for one month and 17 days:

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.657309&-79.496194&15?listing=384-armadale-avenue-toronto-w4716937-4070505

The price? 2 million CDN.

Takers? None whatsoever.

This is quite unbelievable. This is Bloor West, where MLS listings used to get snapped up by bully bids before the open house could even be held. The realtors didn’t even bother posting pictures of the houses most of the time, there was no point. Someone would just “google” it anyway, and the above asking “bully bids” would pour in.

Now it is just crickets. No action.

It is really beyond belief that a house would sit in this area for over a month, at that price range. There should have been multiple bids. That is a very nice house, priced correctly for the area. It should have sold.

So while sales evaporate, prices are NOT moving downwards. The houses are just not selling anymore.

Real estate prices do not drop overall in a month. Unreasonable expectation. – Garth

#30 Keen Reader on 04.26.20 at 3:40 pm

@10 Do we have all the facts

Lots of sources clearly show big jumps in death rates. Here’s for NYC: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

Maybe many of these deaths are pulled forward by COVID, yet its impact is now undeniable. The question is what is a reasonable compromise between reducing R0 and further crashing the economy. Care to comment?

This is not NYC. – Garth

#31 Jay Currie on 04.26.20 at 3:41 pm

On real estate I think we are looking at a reality lag. There is still plenty of money sloshing around in people’s bank accounts and lots of people still have jobs and businesses which produce income. However, as you point out, the longer this goes on the fewer jobs and businesses will exist at the end.

The banks recognize this and, while they have stepped up and deferred mortgage payments, they have also significantly tightened the requirements for new mortgages. Unless you already have one, HELOCs are in the rearview mirror. Credit card limits are being reduced. Credit quality is now the number one criteria for bank lending.

All of which means that demand for real estate is cooling. But what about supply? As you have pointed out, there are a lot of AirBnB condos which are heavily leveraged and totally empty. There are also a lot of single family homes owned by people who have lost their income. The 2K handout does not make much of a dent in a 1 million dollar mortgage. Deferral is great but, sooner or later the bank wants its money. (And there will be very little political appetite for bailouts on 1 million plus houses.)

A 30% drop across the board makes sense, but the higher end is going to be looking much higher than that. Much higher, think 60% plus. As a realtor in Vancouver put it, “2 million is the new 4”.

#32 Bad Hombre once yelled at the orange menace, he peed his pants on 04.26.20 at 3:42 pm

I found an old flowbee, ripped a six foot board off the guy next doors fence and duct taped them together. I brought my shop vac out to the parking lot and hooked it all up together. We are offering haircuts, at a safe six foot distance, for $50. We also have hamberders and covfefe, to go only. Located next door to Fat Don Donny’s safe self disinfectant injection site for all you fools that believe anything that mango menace has to say in his tangerine tantrums of delusional dementia.

#33 Leftover on 04.26.20 at 3:43 pm

To #10 Do we have all the facts:

“When I suggest that our Government compare all deaths over the past six weeks with historical mortality rates to determine a more accurate picture of the true impact that the Covid 19 virus has had in Canada I am met with astonished stares.”

Turns out that overall death rate is down, at least here in BC:

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/birth-adoption-death-marriage-and-divorce/statistics-reports/death-reports/deaths-by-lha-2020.pdf

#34 YouKnowWho on 04.26.20 at 3:43 pm

2 things.

1. I can’t help but think this 7:30 noise parade isn’t taking into consideration those sleeping to take over night shift in hospitals. Those people need rest. Social media gone silly?

2. Scotiabank arena making 10,000 meals for first responders and their families has got to be eating into the sliver of remaining revenue the restaurants left standing are able to capture. Right?

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 3:44 pm

“Trudeau’s popularity has soared”

Ugh.
Hopefully not for long.
Lets see how popular he is by Sept when the closure have been in place for 4 months, not 6 weeks.
And the smooth, calming message from govt is really beginning to grate on everyone.
But the damage is done.
Our economy, our dollar, our deficit….. done like dinner.
Welcome to the new economic reality.
Soup kitchens with free pink T-shirts.

#36 Lambchop on 04.26.20 at 3:45 pm

#1 Flop… on 04.26.20 at 2:06 pm

If not in B.C if all the provincial parks are still shut I will try a free camp beside a river.

That might be a finable offence too.

What’s the chances the let the forest fires rage this summer to keep us out of the backcountry…

M45BC
___________________

Can the forestry companies afford to let their income burn? I’m thinking and hoping not, as I also enjoy the backcountry of BC.

On a different note, I watched the new Michael Moore movie and find that it all fits together with some other agendas that are currently en vogue like the plant-based diet push.

Also, the Trudeau Foundation agenda meshes beautifully with this unending lockdown of our has-been nation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1754&v=oeNB91vDTWI&feature=emb_logo

#37 Xpat on 04.26.20 at 3:47 pm

Ahh 7/11 in Thailand… dinnggg donngg

#38 the Jaguar on 04.26.20 at 3:48 pm

It’s nice to see the occasional cat featured in the daily photo. I love dogs too, and both make loving additions to a household. The one featured seems to define serenity and quiet observation, not generally a canine attribute where extraversion and people pleasing are usually the qualities on display. Cats can be a great friend to dogs and I feel confident Bandit would welcome one as a friend to cuddle up with………
Hard to believe our Prime Minister’s popularity ratings are rising, but the Conservative Party is truly adrift at sea now. Cancelled like the NBA, NHL, or MLB season. They won’t be able to get anyone’s attention given the current preoccupation with the Wuhan Flu which is getting a little tiresome. I may need to escape from it all. It might not be possible for a few months, but I am working on the blue prints right now. Time to ‘take off’. A ‘Year of Living Dangerously’ seems like the perfect antidote to all this madness. Exit, stage left come the fall months.

#39 SunDays on 04.26.20 at 3:49 pm

“What once held the promise of cash flow and capital gains is now mired in the morass of illiquidity.”

Great description of the bond market.

Bonds are liquid. – Garth

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 3:49 pm

@#7 Arctic Outback
“Has anyone else noticed traffic picking up lately? ”
****

Yep,
Noticed it last week.
Rush hour is picking up.
Obviously people cant afford to stay home.
The trickle back to work will soon turn into a flood.
I feel sorry for the restaurants/barber shops/ etc. that are easy soft targets for the misguided By-Law ticket writers.

#41 Edmonton Dave on 04.26.20 at 3:50 pm

Back in the old days, I’m old, only those who were sick were quarantined. Frail and elderly people took steps to protect themselves. Society carried on. I miss those days Garth. The impact of shutting down the entire economy for this long is massive for those without savings. I feel sorry for our country. And I feel sorry for those that have passed away and their families over this virus. But one day soon we need to reopen, in steps, sooner than later.

#42 Ronaldo on 04.26.20 at 3:52 pm

7 ArcticOutback on 04.26.20 at 2:48 pm
Daily reader for years, infrequent poster. Thank you Garth for running this incredible blog!

Has anyone else noticed traffic picking up lately? It will be interesting to see how much longer the Government can keep folks physically distancing, especially as the weather improves. Cottage owners will be especially inching to get away.
—————————————————————–
Absolutely, especially in the provinces least affected by the virus. 82.6% of cases are in Ontario and Quebec with 91.5% of deaths. Alberta and BC are 13.6% of cases and 6.7% of deaths.

So, 49 days since the first recorded death in Canada (Mar 9th), Alberta is averaging 1.2 deaths per day and BC 2 deaths per day.

Is it really as bad as we are lead to believe. Doesn’t seem so.

#43 Hmmmmm on 04.26.20 at 3:52 pm

Okay a few things
First thank you Garth for the hard to take honest post!
After reading this post Should we still hold stocks? Sounds like depression coming. Groan!

Stop worrying about a typo or comma hugs is it’s with a comma.
Moving on
I applaud or rather standing ovation to comment 10, do we have all the facts. Garths been alluding to this as well with tens of thousands of missed operations and cancer treatments, how many have died from delays.
Here in BC 12,000 missed operations. How many died.
I been trying to get statistics how many have died in BC in March compared to previous years. But not a chance why aren’t reporters asking these important questions.
Also we should be demanding how are these people in Canada and in in BC are getting the virus, dead silence!

We know yesterday 95 new cases in BC 40 from a federal prison, 11 from that idiot in cold lake who did not quarantine and 12 from the poultry farm. Thank you for that information.
Now where the the remaining 21 get the virus. Why are we not being told this information

Next has everyone stopped and thought a minute whose really running the country? Yep 13 medical officers. And one in Ottawa. Groan we will never get out of this mess.

Ask yourselves this question if 20 to 50 percent of the people are Asymptomatic and we’ve all been in quarantine for 30 days, should they not be technically virus free?
Have a great weekend.

#44 Mean Gene on 04.26.20 at 3:54 pm

Mother nature has reminded us who is the boss.

#45 Lost...but not leased on 04.26.20 at 3:56 pm

#10 Do we have all the facts on 04.26.20 at 2:56 pm
I live in Peterborough (90,000 pop) where there has been one death contributed to the Covid 19 virus. The majority of people I talk to are certain that it was the lockdown that avoided hundreds more.

When I suggest that our Government compare all deaths over the past six weeks with historical mortality rates to determine a more accurate picture of the true impact that the Covid 19 virus has had in Canada I am met with astonished stares.

===============================

The ” Powers That Be ” must be ROTFLMAO.

Here in BC, a Province of 4 Million…we have had 100 alleged deaths from the alleged pandemic. The vast majority that have contracted the alleged pandemic recover.

Hence…it appears the majority must feel that they should vote with their feet…stay home ?!? cower in fear….and allow their present circumstances to be destroyed and whatever the future holds be seriously mortgaged.

No one appears willing to “Bell the cat” and say ” Let’s take a chance and get back to normal “.

Talk about the herd self-culling…our ancestors must be rolling over in their graves.

#46 TonyT on 04.26.20 at 3:57 pm

Tell me Garth, what would the economy look like if we continued business as usual?

How may restaurants would have closed permanently with 1/2 the number of patrons?

How did things work out for the Boris and the U.K. as they delayed a lockdown?

“This is not NYC — Garth”

Typical Garth (the politician) non-response but hey, it’s your blog.

The comment was about New York. This is not New York. Not so hard to understand. – Garth

#47 Figmund Sreud on 04.26.20 at 3:58 pm

The Cost
________________

Well, … the cost. Nearly 2.8 million people infected worldwide, … and subsequently killed about 200,000 as of this weekend’s start. Yet, … yet, this bug, its origins, biological mechanisms and weaknesses continue to elude top scientific minds. It’s true, …

Once, this bug thought to be a pathogen that primarily attacks the lungs. But now, it is turning out to be a much, much more formidable foe. Doctors find that this bug is actually affecting nearly every major organ system in the body! And not just in olden folks, …

Anyway, … some supporting stuff:

A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients
https://www.washingtonpost.com//health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/

… canoe with care.

F.S. – Calgary, AB.

#48 Phil on 04.26.20 at 4:02 pm

Not sure what it means, but Tangerine auto extended my HISA 3 months at the “special” rate of 2.5% which was to expire April 30.
Are they cash short? My account is about 450 K.
other HISA’s are offering about 0.5%.
I know what you think of HISA’s Garth but I’m a codger and safety is all right now.

#49 Roial1 (or loyal one) on 04.26.20 at 4:03 pm

#17 Felix on 04.26.20 at 3:12 pm

Dear Felix, Why don’t you spit those lovely wild bird feathers out of your “D.T.” lying mouth and admit to your “Murderous”out door activities.
You cats are killing wild birds at an outrageous rate and your poor blind slaves will not admit that you are doing this.
Us “loyal” dogs are doing our best to chase you murderers back into the darkness but we face a bad press because of a few “Bad apples” who have bitten your owners (correction, slaves).
Have a good day.

#50 Yukon Elvis on 04.26.20 at 4:06 pm

Trudeau’s approval rate has soared.
…………………………

Snap election in the fall. Majority third term, write it down.

#51 Statistics on 04.26.20 at 4:07 pm

To 33 leftover
Thanks for the post, I like the stats!
Hard to analyze 3 months, but appreciate the effort
It’s very close to stats Canada death rate per month
It does decline in March from January and February
But if you look at the five year trend for March yes it appears to have declined below the five year trend unfortunely I don’t have 2019 numbers

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310070801

Very interesting indeed !

#52 Calgary retiree on 04.26.20 at 4:07 pm

The IMF predicts a 6.2% reduction for Canada’s 2020 GDP

https://globalnews.ca/news/6815298/coronavirus-world-recession-1930s-imf/

Rounding some of the numbers, I calculate that to be about $100 billion US. What are we getting for this investment? Obviously, we saved lives. But how many? Hard to say. Today we have 2560 deaths, let’s assume the total for 2020 will be 4000.

Now, let’s say our practices reduced mortality by about 90% and without preventive measures our death toll would have been 40,000. That comes to a cost of about $2.8 million per person saved.

Wild assumptions? You bet. But you can put in your own numbers and get some rough idea.

#53 Jager on 04.26.20 at 4:08 pm

“Worse, 61% of small business owners believe they’ll be roadkill within three months, and 76% will fail within five. Ouch”

That’s a big Ouch!

A type of V shaped recovery may take place in the markets (watch out for the earnings reports this coming week. Some are expecting a somewhat deep but temporary unwinding) however the broader economy will hurt for many years.

An enormous liquidity trap coupled with debt deflation ensures a great deflationary period and a diminished middle class.

From there…?

Socially speaking, expect homelessness to catapult in major urban centres and hunger to become a daily facet of life for far too many.

#54 Charles on 04.26.20 at 4:09 pm

Call me a prophet, call me anything you want but in december and january i was having a bad feeling about everything. I could not find out what it was, I don’t suffer depression or anxiety or never did. I am telling you now, this my be worst, way worst than we think. It is going to be apocalyptic. Love your family, stay close to them and pray.

#55 Dolce Vita on 04.26.20 at 4:11 pm

#6 rentin

The alternative is “herd immunity”, you know, where for it to work you need 60-70% of the population to have been infected (and lived to be enumerated).

Any volunteers Canada including you there “rentin”?

#56 NFN_NLN on 04.26.20 at 4:15 pm

DELETED

#57 Moscow Mitch on 04.26.20 at 4:17 pm

#32 Bad Hombre once yelled at the orange menace, he peed his pants on 04.26.20 at 3:42 pm
I found an old flowbee, ripped a six foot board off the guy next doors fence and duct taped them together. I brought my shop vac out to the parking lot and hooked it all up together. We are offering haircuts, at a safe six foot distance, for $50. We also have hamberders and covfefe, to go only. Located next door to Fat Don Donny’s safe self disinfectant injection site for all you fools that believe anything that mango menace has to say in his tangerine tantrums of delusional dementia.

‐—————————

I’m nominating Disinfectant Donnie for a Noble prize in scienceness and Twitter journalanism. He’s a stable genius, and has a very good you know what. It’ll have to be a tiny prize though, or it’ll make his hands look miniscule. #TrumpisNOTalaughingstock

#58 NFN_NLN on 04.26.20 at 4:19 pm

New Michael Moore DOcumentaty was released (full length on Youtube)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE

Spoiler alert, green energy is a scam.

Watch for yourself. I’ll save the implications and let you connect the dots yourself. Bonus points for whoever responds with the solution to prove you watched the video :)

#59 espressobob on 04.26.20 at 4:20 pm

50% of restaurants biting the dust doesn’t sound unreasonable. Not sure where Garth gets these stats, but if this situation lingers into June that percentage could be conservative.

Like a domino effect its the suppliers, general and specialized contractors (like myself), trained staff and servers will take a big hit as well. The list goes on.

For anyone who falls into this category, all I have to say is welcome to the foodservice industry. Have a nice day.

#60 GB on 04.26.20 at 4:22 pm

Hey Garth….been following your blog for 20 years.

Are you still confident in a recovery (either V or U shaped)?

And if so…what is your timeframe projection? (Your guidance here is always appreciated….given it’s at no charge :)). My family truly appreciates all you offer.

Cheers.

Of course there will be recovery. Until we know the pace at which government will lift restrictions, timing is impossible. – Garth

#61 Dolce Vita on 04.26.20 at 4:22 pm

#45 Mean Gene

So true.

——————————

In EARLY March when I tweeted Hajdu, Trudeau, Bains, Freeland (and Butts just in case he was still in charge) to prepare, ventilators shortages in Europe (embargo soon and it happened) etc. all I got back got back from Canadian Tweets was this in as many words:

Italia 3rd World, Canada Superman.

Of course, I replied with projections I had made then using Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team data, told Gov Canada to prepare it will get bad:

Projected # of Infections = 33,831
Projected Deaths = 683

More Tweet responses from Canadians: Italia 3rd World, Canada Superman and we have SARS Memory, plenty of PPE’s and Ventilators.

Well, that worked out well didn’t it? (April 24th Canada: 43859 cases, 2289 deaths).

#45 Mean Gene was correct:

“Mother nature has reminded us who is the boss.”

She also reminded us that she knows nothing about National Bravado.

Red tooth and claw is what she is about when she set her mind to it.

#62 earthboundmisfit on 04.26.20 at 4:24 pm

“He will be in the history books as the guy who lost a G7 country. Bank on it.”

Having played no small part, it seems only fitting that Gerry Butts should get busy writing Trudeau’s legacy as the Prime Minister who destroyed the Federation. Forward by Catherine McKenna and Katie Telford. Guest appearnces by Elizabeth May who, with a coiterie of First Nations representatives, can begin the book launch party with a sacred flaming pallet toss.

#63 Not a sheeple on 04.26.20 at 4:27 pm

I love how Garth tells people not to be sheeple, and then presents the MSM narrative as though it’s fact.

‘Trudeau’s approval rate has soared. Trump’s is faltering.’

Yeah. Right.

At least according to the mainstream news which told us Hillary had the 2016 election in the bag, and that Trump was colluding with Russia. Give me a break.

So the ipsos poll says Turdeau has 74% approval rating. Nobody I know approves.

Interestingly, my mother writes a community newspaper in small town Saskatchewan. She wanted to write about how Justin shuttered all the Service Canada offices during the time when people needed them most but her vanilla editor would have kiboshed it at the gate so she didn’t even try.

instead, she contacted a reporter friend of hers in one of the city centres and he pitched the story to his editor. The editor said he couldn’t write the story because it would put their federal funding at risk.

Wake up people.

Public opinion polls are done by opinion-tracking organizations, not media. Feel free to provide your own statistics. Your mom, by the way, is probably lying to you. I can see why. – Garth

#64 Lost...but not leased on 04.26.20 at 4:28 pm

#47 TonyT on 04.26.20 at 3:57 pm
Tell me Garth, what would the economy look like if we continued business as usual?

How may restaurants would have closed permanently with 1/2 the number of patrons?

================

I think “Big Brother” has sent out coded messages re: the “new normal”.

Lets face it….many people’s hope and dream to have their own business often gravitate to opening restaurant and bars. New normal will be ” social distancing” which will seriously reduce seating capacity…lets say at least by 50% if not more.

Not necessarily saying “conspiracy”, but major fast food chains…the majority of which have “drive through”…will be coincidentally perfectly positioned to take up ” the slack”.

#65 MF on 04.26.20 at 4:29 pm

#123 Penny Henny on 04.26.20 at 12:38 p

“ You think Tam is doing a good job.
Hmmm,
coming from you why am I not surprised”

-Hmm looks like you have no argument.

So are you going to volunteer to be the first to get infected and start “herd immunity” that may or may not occur or what?

MF

#66 TonyT on 04.26.20 at 4:30 pm

“The comment was about New York. This is not New York. Not so hard to understand. – Garth”

The comment was about the death rate in a city that was hard hit by Covid-19.

You chose to focus on NYC because it allowed you to ignore the actual question. You know, just the way politicians are taught to distract and deflect.

I would love for you to do an article detailing what the economy would look like if we continued business as usual.

Maybe you could discuss what *you* would have done differently? For bonus points, detail how it would have saved the economy?

Alas, I doubt this will happen — it’s much easier to yell at clouds.

The world is not black and white. Nobody (sane) has suggested the virus be allowed free reign. The issue is finding the right balance between disease mitigation and destroying the economy. Stop being a drama queen. – Garth

#67 not 1st on 04.26.20 at 4:31 pm

#23 YouKnowWho on 04.26.20 at 3:26 pm
Is anyone else angry? I’m angry.
—-

I have been saying that since the start. The best paid eggheads are in these press conferences and they all have the same non answers.

There is a pandemic on, what are our options?

Option A; destroy economy
Option B; destroy economy faster

Are there any treatment protocols that can alleviate this?

Option C: See option A

Same thing with our so called climate scientists.

#68 not 1st on 04.26.20 at 4:33 pm

Of course there will be recovery. Until we know the pace at which government will lift restrictions, timing is impossible. – Garth
—-

There might be recovery, but this patient is going to be on the disabled list for quite some time.

#69 Keen Reader on 04.26.20 at 4:33 pm

“This isn’t NYC”
Of course; the point is that stats exist that dispel C-19 being “just a bad flu”. The question remains WRT how to balance real economic damage against real people getting infected. I’ve repeatedly suggested we are over-doing it and should focus on the more effective measures proven elsewhere. What’s needed is a gradual lifting of lockdowns, masks-wearing, protecting the vulnerable, etc, right here and not in NYC!

Cheers

#70 GAV on 04.26.20 at 4:33 pm

This virus crisis was/is a godsend to Trudeau.

Think about it. Two and a half months and a half ago Justin was overseas giving money away trying to buy a security seat. Incuding giving millions away to Senegal to develop their fossil fuel industry.

Meanwhile back home the Liberals were letting pipeline blockades destroy the economy, a decision needed to be made for Frontier (risking a revolt), and all this put his minority government in jeopordy.

Now, he didnt need to make a decision on Frontier (as if he had the guts to anyway), the bockades have run away, and he doesnt have to answer to any parliament.

His past budgetting incompetence disappears, because it is irrelevent compared to blowing $200 billion now to save us all.

He can fullfill every Liberal’s orgasmic dream and drop multi billions from a helicopter for wealth redistribution (regionally) while allowing the Albertan fossil industry to melt away.

He can stand in front of tv cameras everyday fielding softball questions from a bought off media. Civil liberties and free speach can now be reduced to the “Liberal standard”.

It is indeed “sunny ways” for Liberals everywhere.

There really is no better time for Wexit.

#71 Keen Reader on 04.26.20 at 4:35 pm

Switching back to the topic, I’m happily renting now but stand ready to pounce when RE drops enough. Quick calcs show that the house I rent outside Montréal would need to drop by ~30% to warrant buying it, considering all expenses of owning. This doesn’t even factor the opportunity costs, nor drawing funds from a mildly-depressed portfolio. Overall, this means RE dropping 30% more than a B&D portfolio; will we get there? Unless missing something, I may just enjoy my nice subsidized house for a while yet.

#72 NFN_NLN on 04.26.20 at 4:36 pm

#43 Ronaldo on 04.26.20 at 3:52 pm

So, 49 days since the first recorded death in Canada (Mar 9th), Alberta is averaging 1.2 deaths per day and BC 2 deaths per day.

Is it really as bad as we are lead to believe. Doesn’t seem so.

—-

“11 Edmontonians attempt, or die by suicide per day.”

https://11ofus.ca/

Real campaign, real slogan. Looks like the COVID-19 has a better PR team.

Off the record, suicide rates are in fact up. I believe NET NEW suicides actually out pace COVID-19.

#73 MF on 04.26.20 at 4:37 pm

122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 12:26 pm

I think you missed the point. And what are you going on about millennials lol

I’m assuming you believe the US economy will be roaring? If that’s the case, what makes you think we won’t benefit? A 62 cent dollar won’t stay there long with a roaring US economy.

If you think the situation is so dire, please sell me your stocks. It’s all going to zero anyways. They’re worthless. We’ll start with oil.

MF

#74 JacqueShellacque on 04.26.20 at 4:37 pm

Next weekend in southern Ontario shaping up to be a nice spring one, 15 degrees or so and sunny. Maybe most people will be willing to spend another weekend inside. Maybe not. Either way, I feel a tipping point coming, even in obedient Canada. In the US the momentum to reopening probably can’t be stopped at this point. The cultural divide is being laid bare, and it can happen here too. White-collar urbanites trust experts and consider the non-conformism of the independent-minded, the blue-collar, or the rural underclass just another sign of their obtuseness. The rest question the expertise of the elites, pointing out a lot of stuff recommended by experts the last 30 years or so hasn’t worked out so well for everyone and is even to blame for what’s happening now. The next month or so is crucial for those in authority who claim the legitimacy their expertise supposedly grants them. As Garth’s graphs point out, the cost of this increases non-linearly the longer it goes on. If the elite are seen to be moving the goalposts away from ‘flatten the curve’ and dragging their feet on reopening, their authority will be seriously undermined. In the US that will definitely mean Trump 2020, and in Canada it could mean constitutional crisis.

#75 Dolce Vita on 04.26.20 at 4:37 pm

#54 GB …about V or U shaped recovery.

“Of course there will be recovery. Until we know the pace at which government will lift restrictions, timing is impossible. – Garth”

————————–

Lacey Hunt plain speaking Texan, politically dispassionate Investment Management Economist had a CHILLING take of what will happen “no Vee shaped recovery” and why.

Interview by some Comm. YouTuber that could not believe his luck at whom he had stumbled upon, WELL WORTH a view – talks about more than just about deflation, what happens in the US after COVID, makes a lot of sense:

“What is deflation? U.S. Treasuries expert Lacy Hunt explains how money’s buying power changes.”

49 min, bear with him 1st 5:30 min or so…delivers right after that…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhwK0rV0JDA

————————–

To be honest Garth, your In Cold Blood analysis today OPTIMISTIC of what is to come after listening to Hunt.

Heaven help us all.

#76 NFN_NLN on 04.26.20 at 4:43 pm

#14 not 1st on 04.26.20 at 3:02 pm

He will be in the history books as the guy who lost a G7 country. Bank on it.

——

“The new deal was informally called TPP-11, but Turnbull wrote that the other countries were so annoyed that they were ready to announce a TPP-10 agreement that excluded Canada.”

“I was extremely disappointed with Justin and felt really bad for Shinzo Abe. He’d put so much into the TPP-11 and this was a very public humiliation. Likewise for Prime Minister (Nguyen Xuan) Phuc of Vietnam. He had dozens of cameras waiting to record the historic moment, and then it hadn’t happened,” wrote Turnbull.

Even more annoying for the other leaders was they felt they had “bent over backwards” for Canada during the negotiations, allowing for the clunky new name requested by the Canadian delegation, among other things.

Turnbull also felt that Trudeau had personally let him down. After initially believing that Trudeau had been unfairly cast as a “lightweight” by his critics, simply because of his youth and looks, Turnbull had come to believe that Trudeau was “more thoughtful than some of his reviews suggested.”

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/worried-about-offending-trump-flaky-trudeau-humiliated-fellow-leaders-during-tpp-trade-talks-former-aussie-pm

#77 Scott on 04.26.20 at 4:44 pm

@14

I’ll give you 10:1 odds that Canada and all it’s provinces remain in tact. I’ll even give you five years after Trudeau leaves office. Let’s say 10$ if I’m right, 100$ if you’re right and Canada falls apart. Let me know if you’re interested.

#78 West Van on 04.26.20 at 4:44 pm

A residential lot, 5644A Westport Road, West Vancouver, just sold. According to the property assessment it was purchased in June 2018 for $2,036,000. The purchaser decided to sell it again and originally listed a few months later for around $2,200,000. It’s 2018 assessment was $2,124,000.

It’s 2019 assessment was $1,592,000.

He just sold it for $1,075,000. So he lost $961,000 in less than 2 years. Plus expenses – transfer tax, financing costs, property tax, site improvements, realty fees. So the seller lost well over $1,000,000 in less than 2 years or more than 50%.

https://bcres.paragonrels.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=99015ab4-b1d0-41b3-8663-570c851bf263&Report=Yes

Wow, a 27,000 sq ft view lot in West Vancouver for just over $1,000,000. Who would have thought! The listing agent (top producer) knows a few things about the West Vancouver market and it’s conditions.

Also. the property is right next door to the home of another very prominent and established The land value on his 2019 assessment was virtually the same ($1,574,000). Down she goes!

So what drives an owner to realize this kind of loss now? A realization of what is coming? Personal financial situation? Both?

#79 Lexi on 04.26.20 at 4:47 pm

Delurking to hit the LIKE button for #10 DoWe Have all the Facts?

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 4:50 pm

@#74 MF
“I’m assuming you believe the US economy will be roaring?”
+++

No . I dont.
I think this will be a long, long, painful, world wide recession …..or worse….
And Millenials will have bragging rights in about 50 years when they sit around a fireplace (still in their mom’s basement) regaling the grandkids about “how it was way worse than the Boomer’s wimpy little recession in the 80’s”
And they will speak the truth.

Economists will win Nobel prizes as to why the “Great Depression of 2020” was so bad and so long.
But they’re economists and theory is everything as opposed to reality.

#81 Coho on 04.26.20 at 4:52 pm

Lots of 2020 left to unfold. As bad and as quickly things have turned, I think 2020 has more of what will be future calamitous memories yet to unfold.

C19 media coverage is 24/7. It’s really done a number on people. The 6 foot distancing rule is not enough for some people’s liking. They’re afraid, understandably so. Global warming is no longer an issue. It’s no longer needed since C19 checks all the boxes of reshaping humanity. The majority of people are begging for their governments to “save “them. In other words we’re asking for it.

For those of us that are aware of the mentality and intentions of the real power behind world affairs, those high above the pay grade of its minion governments, the new world order, unfortunately will not be for the benefit of mankind.

#82 Doug t on 04.26.20 at 4:59 pm

I read an interesting article on this being the end of a 300 year cycle in which we leave the era of religious belief/control and enter the next phase of the human experience. What that will look like should be mind blowing – where are we headed? Capitalism/consumption has destroyed us – globalism has made us sick and reliant- the future beckons

#83 TonyT on 04.26.20 at 5:00 pm

“Stop being a drama queen. – Garth”

There it is, don’t tackle the subject or address the question, attack the person instead.

“The world is not black and white. Nobody (sane) has suggested the virus be allowed free reign. The issue is finding the right balance between disease mitigation and destroying the economy.”

Actually, quite a few so-called sane people have suggested the virus be allowed free reign. Many have also backtracked since and have been desperately trying to whitewash the past.

As for finding a balance, you are very clear in your writing that you do not believe the current actions of the Canadian government offer a good balance.

So, why not write a post detailing what *you* would do differently?

Maybe offer some suggestions as to how this balance (between disease mitigation and destroying the economy) can be better achieved.

#84 Sail Away on 04.26.20 at 5:00 pm

#21 april on 04.26.20 at 3:23 pm

#10 – According to reports this is a new virus…right?

This thing attacks heart, kidneys, and brain besides the lungs.

———————-

The brain, yes, definitely the brain.

It’s caused mass hysteria, delusions and unjustifiable actions worldwide.

#85 SunDays on 04.26.20 at 5:01 pm

“Bonds are liquid. – Garth”

Only because Central Banks buy them up. With that logic the Gov’t can easily create liquidity in the residential real estate markets too. It is great for buying votes.

Sometimes this blog is terrifying. – Garth

#86 conan on 04.26.20 at 5:01 pm

Snap election in the fall. Majority third term, write it down. -Yukon Elvis

I agree with you here. I am not sure how the snap election will come about., but one thing is for sure, I have never seen the Conservatives look so “not worthy” of anyone’s vote. They look more brutal every day. They should issue paper bags for all of them to wear.

#87 uncle fester on 04.26.20 at 5:01 pm

#25 Dominoes Lining Up on 04.26.20 at 3:32 pm
… The nearest WalMart had a crazy long lineup outside, about 500 metres of people spaced apart, and a full parking lot…
######################

Stop with the BS! You don‘t even know what a metre is!

#88 MF on 04.26.20 at 5:02 pm

5 JacqueShellacque on 04.26.20 at 4

No.

What you have developing is the same with any issue.

People on the extremes of either side are the loudest, and the middle -which is 95% of people- being the most quiet.

Majority of Canadians feel like they are helping the fellow countrymen, particularly the most vulnerable. Almost everyone wants this thing done and over with and is trying their best just to cope.

MF

#89 Eco Capitalist on 04.26.20 at 5:05 pm

Various news articles filtering out about the damage to Nurseries, as they’ve lost their first season. More businesses wondering if Mother’s Day will be a bust. How many seasonal businesses will perish with a lost summer? Even with the information presented in this blog, it’s hard to grasp the enormity of the economic damage being done. I wonder if our local Main Street, currently being renovated to provide a better pedestrian experience, will have any tenants come the end of this?

#90 Lee on 04.26.20 at 5:06 pm

I think the only long-term solution is some form of guaranteed minimum income for people 24 and over. This is not a refined plan but what I set out below would be some of the main points. It will probably thin out the work herd to those who truly have something to contribute rather than just taking an income. The minimum income would have to be substantial though – like $50,000 for an individual, $70,000 per couple, and then another $10,000 per child under 20. You would be able to earn a little bit of money – like $10,000 a year – if you are covered by the paln. I say about 25% of people would use it keeping in mind that many would be seniors so CPP and OAS would have to be reduced or eliminated for anyone taking the minimum income who is over 65. You would not be excluded based on wealth. You’d have to be a citizen or landed immigrant. My guess is this would cost about $200B a year to fund after factoring in savigs for CPP, OAS, GIS, UI and welfare. It would be treated as income so it would be taxed as income would be so government gets some of it back. Most welfare programs would of course go away and a lot of EU would be eliminated. Everyone who works would of course not have to pay CPP or EI premimus because at 65 or while unemployed they would just switch to the guaranteed income. Can’t be worse for most that what we have now. It will self regulate. As too many people go on guaranteed income, employers would be forced to raise wages. Needs a lot of refining. But seems like we can’t keep having people go though long stages of unemployment every 10 years. I can see its stressing people out and it is wearing them out.

#91 GB on 04.26.20 at 5:07 pm

Thanks Garth.

I mainly inquire about timeline because I have RESP’s for my two daughters (one is going into grade 12 the other grade 9)…so the older one is going to have to access her RESP’s in a year….

We lost a solid 5K on a 30K RESP account (which I suppose is okay)….but I wonder what the projection is over the next year is all.

Should we expect a recover of that loss….or not so much?

And if not…should we transition the RESP’s to a cash account?

It’s the short term stuff that troubles me most.

#92 Western on 04.26.20 at 5:08 pm

To #1 Flop

Go to the silver skagit road by hope this summer. You will find some nice spots there, if the parks are closed.

#93 MF on 04.26.20 at 5:13 pm

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 4:50 p

I just skipped the part about millennials. Don’t care.

Now, if you think the world is heading for a deep depression, then there isn’t anything I can tell you other than the virus was just the immediate spark but not the actual cause.

Worldwide debt levels are what are putting us at risk.

Harry Dent has a good take on all this.

PS I’ll still gladly buy all your oil stocks.

MF

#94 Camille on 04.26.20 at 5:15 pm

Keep dreaming. Mr. Doctor is not gonna wait 2 years in a diversified portfolio before buying a house. Doesn’t want a mortgage. Grow up. Cannot look at real estate sales less than a month in a lockdown. As if everyone all of a sudden no longer wants home ownership. They’re all hunkered down planning their attack when the lockdown lifts. Apologies, but ignoring what people want is not realistic, and has been wrong for the past 10, 20, 30… years.

#95 Figure it Out on 04.26.20 at 5:21 pm

“11 Edmontonians attempt, or die by suicide per day.”

Source?

I looked at Alberta’s annual suicide rate and scaled by Edmonton’s fraction of Alberta’s population — easy googles. Got one suicide every three days. Is a success rate of 1/33 likely? Seems low. So I googled, found:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1446422/
(studies 8 US states)
…Which found 11 suicides per 100k (Alberta running at about 13, in the ballpark). And 119/100k attempts. Which would put Edmonton at about 3.2 attempts/day.

11/day would imply a much higher rate of attempts, and a much lower rate of success than the US study. Seems unlikely.

#96 Had on 04.26.20 at 5:21 pm

It will settle down as follow:
Kids are at ZERO risk of dying from the virus
Median age of death is 78 -80 years
Death rate .1 to .4 percent

Total obliteration of economic and social life

#97 Dolce Vita on 04.26.20 at 5:21 pm

Not so much financial or economic but a “glimpse” about a post C19 World…protocol results coming May 4th to Italia:

-Metro in Rome, Milan: Seats go from 1,200 to 150 (BTW, same sign that the Cat in the image standing on above will be on all subway flooring, spaced out of course).

-Restaurants, when they open May 18, must space patrons no closer than 2 m (which shrinks seating well below 50%), each table & chairs in its own private habitat of Plexiglas.

-Travel only within a Region (like saying you can only travel within your Province).

-Airplane seats, every middle seat empty or back facing (Ryanair not happy, says Gov Italia should pay them for the empty middle seat…see what they say when on the verge of bankruptcy).

etc.

Not a Fun World to come here in Italia indeed.

Like No Fun Vancouver (apologies Left Coast, but I could not resist).

—————————

PS:

Italians still perplexed about how its Summer Beach Culture is going to work out. You know, it’s like they don’t have bigger problems to worry about but having said that, at least they’re optimistic that not all of La Dolce Vita in a mask with gloves.

REALITY: popular beach resorts near me (Bibione, Jesolo, Lignano, Caorle) have taken all the precautions for spacing etc., result:

Summer bookings falling like a lead balloon.

Make that No Fun Italia.

#98 Ejy on 04.26.20 at 5:25 pm

Another factor in the potential deterioration of RE: A neighbor was panicked as her two home-stay students vanished faster than Garth at an Adele concert. And they are asking for their prepaid home-stay money back. All home-stays for the summer, fall and next winter look to be cancelled as well. Seems there are many people in the lower mainland & VI who rely on international students studying English &/or attending Uni to pay their mortgage…

#99 Yuus bin Haad on 04.26.20 at 5:29 pm

Hey, I just realized – I didn’t catch a cold this year

#100 TurnerNation on 04.26.20 at 5:29 pm

People were out in droves all Jan/Feb/March. Nobody got sick. Until the media wanted them to. And no one is dying of anything else at the moment.
—-
Once again this a global land grab. Which why we are currently kicked off all Crown land and parks.

They are coming for more of your land. Mortgage defaults are a key tool. So many levers were pressed at once and in only 1 month. Globally

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/why-protect-30-planet-2030-global-deal-nature-conservation/

The deal calls for 30% of the planet to be protected by 2030, with an additional 20% to be maintained or restored to a natural state and designated as climate stabilization areas.

#101 YouKnowWho on 04.26.20 at 5:30 pm

Garth,

Re: haircuts. I’m out. I’ve mastered my haircut. Tipping myself $10. Canadian Haircut TAM has shrunk!

But I’m going to get some take out tonight, try to put a dent into this 76% Restaurant closure darn it!

#102 Jager on 04.26.20 at 5:31 pm

To be clear. In my previous post (#54) I noted a liquidity trap and separately debt deflation.

In a classic liquidity trap businesses and individuals hold cash and pay down debt (i.e. less money sloshing around in the economy). There is no stimulus as interest rates are already rock bottom and debt may be at a peak.

Debt deflation however is noted as debt default leading to credit contraction (i.e. banks lend less).

All this of course leads to a severe period of deflation.

#103 islander on 04.26.20 at 5:32 pm

https://www.40listings.com/REBGV/R2452142/3004-w-king-edward-avenue-vancouver-west-mackenzie-heights-v6l1v3

….foreclosure sales in YVR

https://themacnabs.com/vancouver-foreclosure-for-sale/

win a few… lose a few…

#104 Lost...but not leased on 04.26.20 at 5:35 pm

#79 West Van on 04.26.20 at 4:44 pm
A residential lot, 5644A Westport Road, West Vancouver, just sold. According to the property assessment it was purchased in June 2018 for $2,036,000. The purchaser decided to sell it again and originally listed a few months later for around $2,200,000. It’s 2018 assessment was $2,124,000.

It’s 2019 assessment was $1,592,000.

He just sold it for $1,075,000. So he lost $961,000 in less than 2 years. Plus expenses – transfer tax, financing costs, property tax, site improvements, realty fees. So the seller lost well over $1,000,000 in less than 2 years or more than 50%.

==================

West Van was known as nouveau riche hub…

However…not rocket science most peoples’ property values have dropped….with NDP etc. taxes on top.

Next assessment period will quantify the fi$cal bleeding..which will re$ult in major mill rate adjustments in 2021. Ouch !!!

Fa$ten your $eatbelts !!!
(but then again…a collateral benefit is gov’ts at all level will be forced to be fi$cal con$ervative via threat of revolution.)

#105 Leftover on 04.26.20 at 5:36 pm

To 52 Statistics

Here’s the source site, more years available, same conclusion (overall death rate has gone down):

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/life-events/statistics-reports/deaths

#106 Penny Henny on 04.26.20 at 5:37 pm

#66 MF on 04.26.20 at 4:29 pm
#123 Penny Henny on 04.26.20 at 12:38 p

“ You think Tam is doing a good job.
Hmmm,
coming from you why am I not surprised”

-Hmm looks like you have no argument.

So are you going to volunteer to be the first to get infected and start “herd immunity” that may or may not occur or what?

MF
////////////////

My argument is this.
If I were to get this virus there is likely a 35% I wouldn’t feel a thing. Another 63% chance I would feel anything from a mild cold to a bad flu. 1.4% chance I would seek medical treatment and finally another 0.6% chance I would die from it.
And I’m 55 years old. MF you’re still under 40.
Last I read there has been 1 death in Ontario for those under 40 years of age.

And regarding Tam, she is a joke.
First it’s ‘not transmittable from human to human’. How about ‘it would be very rare for us to have a case in Canada’. Then ‘closing boarders won’t help’. And ‘masks don’t help’.

Son, you’ve been brainwashed. What is sad is you are only too happy to give away your freedoms.
I guess that is easier than accepting accountability for your own destiny.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 5:37 pm

@#84. TonyTantrum
“Maybe offer some suggestions as to how this balance (between disease mitigation and destroying the economy) can be better achieved.”
++++

You’re missing the point.
This isnt a theoretical discussion of coulda shoulda woulda…..even though I think its safe to assume that perhaps quarantining the most vulnerable in society (elderly/sick) would have been a far more prudent way to go? Since the vast majority who do get the flu are fine.

The Govt HAS shut the economy down.
The Economy IS tanking.
People ARE permanently losing their jobs.
The virus deaths AREN’T as bad as originally forecast.
Wait til the end of this work week when its may and the April unemployment/ negative sales/numbers for the US, Canada and the world come out…..
The stock markets are going to crap their pants.
And its……
Just the beginning.
But Trudeau does look good on camera with the stern , calm, fatherly tone finished off with the beard with hints of grey….makes him seem wiser doesnt it?
Now if only he could get rid of that wheezy stutter.

#108 alf on 04.26.20 at 5:42 pm

If this one hasn’t already been posted, it should have been.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnmMNdiCz_s

Sad reality when comedians are far more rational and trustworthy than the media and politicians.

Stand up often appears to be the last remaining refuge of truth. Even if they get it all wrong, at least they were funny.

#109 Yukon Elvis on 04.26.20 at 5:48 pm

Yes, politicians are pouring on billions in borrowed money, but recovering from the emergency will take a lot longer than most expected,
………………………….

After the crash of ‘08 it took six years for the tsx to recoup those losses.

It took just 12 months for a balanced portfolio to recover. – Garth

#110 Figure it Out on 04.26.20 at 5:50 pm

“it’s hard to grasp the enormity of the economic damage being done”

On the other hand, think of how LITTLE economic damage is being done. The 20th century’s two world wars killed millions, and billions of person hours and dollars worth of raw materials were converted into arms and munitions, and used to destroy the homes, factories and arms of the other side. Decades worth of capital accumulation (REAL capital, not mere money) were lost.

Versus? We’re going to see maybe a million deaths and very little loss of our productive capacity. Factories are still standing, planes and ships will voyage again, and our farms can be as productive as ever. The ownership of those assets may be shuffled around a bit, but the assets themselves will remain. All we lose is a few months of economic output. Which — on average — means delaying the iPhone upgrade cycle and keeping the old car another year. This ain’t Venezuela, where people are ten or twenty pounds lighter than they were at the onset of their troubles.

How we deal with the consequences of the economic reshuffling is strictly a political policy issue, and has nothing to do with the bug.

#111 Flop... on 04.26.20 at 5:54 pm

#93 Western on 04.26.20 at 5:08 pm
To #1 Flop

Go to the silver skagit road by hope this summer. You will find some nice spots there, if the parks are closed.

//////////////////////////

Thanks Western, this is not a virus blog, so I guess I’ll see if I can turn it into a camping blog.

I have camped down that road lots of times, mainly at the forest campsite, Silvertip.

It was getting a but unruly towards the end of my last stays their, police called both Friday and Saturday nights by other campers because of partying.

I used to do the weekend warrior thing to places like that every Friday during summer and then I decided to switch strategies and take a couple of weeks of in the summer and have a more relaxing time with less crowds.

I like to free-camp and use forestry campsites.

My wife likes plumbing, so she prefers provincial and state parks.

I have camped from the Yukon all the way down to Yosemite, and the eastern side of Mt Rainer is my happy place in the summer.

Even with the shoddy currency, we use a tank of gas to get down there, 20 bucks a night (CAD) camping fee, sometimes free-camp and a tank to get back and a load of groceries.

It works out to be an efficient holiday in some of the best country in the world you could wish to see.

Two summers ago we did the Chinook Byway for the second time after a few days around Rainer and we had whole forest campgrounds to ourselves during the week in the first week of August.

Social distancing and camping go hand in hand.

I’ve never camped within six feet of someone else except my wife.

My vehicle is 21 foot long, one of us could be sick and we’d still not be breaking any rules.

Probably have to sleep on the toilet.

Wouldn’t be the first time…

M45BC

#112 S.Bby on 04.26.20 at 5:55 pm

The longer our elected officials defer to the medical experts who now seem to be running our country, the worse the economic damage will become. Traffic is picking up and more people seem to be out and about so my thinking is that the public won’t be willing to be contained much longer. So could this mean even more draconian controls to keep us in line?

#113 yvr_lurker on 04.26.20 at 5:56 pm

All the schools and government offices shut, but no teachers or civil servants were furloughed.
—————————————–

In general I have been pleased with the effort and material that the public school teachers have been providing to continue grade 10 for my kid. Every day they have some online lectures and they have hw that is due that they made into online assignments. We need to provide a little extra home schooling in the evening, but I feel that the kids are getting through the material needed for the next grade (by and large). If anyone has the illusion that putting this material online is easy on some easy-to-use platform you are nuts.

At the university level, everything is now online (courses, meetings, working with research teams) and it has been a huge undertaking to go from essentially zero material online to putting the remainder of course online, exams online, supervision online. This fall I can well imagine that much of this will be even better we have a second iteration of this. However, I am sure that there will be no extra work for sessionals or occasional lecturers, but IT people will be in high demand
to provide support to deliver what is needed.

What I am genuinely concerned about is that politicians and the publicj think it will all be back to normal once the vaccine arrives. This is, from what I read and from those I talk to at work, a big IF. I think it will take a huge medical breakthrough (akin to climbing Meru in Nepal) to get there.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-may-be-impossible-to-produce-scientists-covid-2020-4

My sense is that we may more readily develop some better forms of treatment once one gets COVID19, but that the foolproof “vaccine” will not be in the cards.

I think it is best to try to use the data to estimate the R0 in different provinces and then use this to slowly get people back to work so as to not decimate the economy more than needed. The “new-normal” of some form of social distancing will be with us for a long time I think; no 20K people hockey games, little international travel, no huge conventions etc; however based on the R0 value we cannot all be locked down in place to wait for the arrival of the saving vaccine.

What I am hoping for is that the virus essentially disappears on its own like SARS and the version of H1N1 associated with the 2.5 year Spanish flu. However, to me it is clear we are in for a very long haul. If anyone has a bunch of unused freqeunt flyer points, I think it is time to cash them in for a home espresso machine or other consumer item. Don’t think you will be needing these points for a good long while.

#114 Entrepreneur on 04.26.20 at 5:58 pm

I am too troubled by the comments T2 makes everyday coming to the mike announcing millions/billions then says he stands behind science, data, and health officials.

What I see is the shutdown of our Canadian economy and the “questionable” science, data and health officials. Are we not allowed to ask questions? Feels like it!?!

All I hear from the health officials say is that they are learning as they go and the death rate (but now saying mostly the elderly home.)

To close ALL of Canada`s economy was an over-reaction. The proof is in the pudding with the double-standard economy. If this pandemic was so bad as to close our economy down then the Liquor Stores should have been closed down, other big outlets.

We should be allowed to question without fear of being called out for whatever reason. Avoiding the question, it seems to me (news panel, making a big deal of racism but many of us do have questions and all are more intelligent than this.)

#115 Mark Moretti on 04.26.20 at 6:00 pm

So much complaining about Trudeau here, whatever you think of him or his policies, name anything substantive Ford did differently in Ontario?

Conservative, Liberal there is no good solution here, and everyone more or less is working from the same play book.

#116 Long-Time Lurker on 04.26.20 at 6:04 pm

>Twitter Source confirmations: about 7-14 days lead time from source. I again reasonably doubt the official numbers.

#152 Long-Time Lurker on 04.21.20 at 8:09 pm
Summarizing the global pandemic situation as of this week:

…Officially, China has Wuhan-400 under control. Unofficially, I’m reading that outbreaks are occurring in Guangdong, Sichuan, Hebei (Hubei?) and a province next to Russia (Harbin?). It’s not over in Wuhan, either. (Twitter source if you can find it.)

Dawn Liu and Associated Press

13h ago / 2:04 AM PDT
China reports no deaths for 11th straight day

China’s National Health Commission reported no new deaths for the 11th day in a row on Sunday. It confirmed 11 new cases, bringing the total to 82,827 in the country — 77,394 of which have been reported fully recovered.

Five of the new cases were in Heilongjiang province, a northeastern border area with Russia that has seen a surge in infections. Another was in Guangdong province, a manufacturing and tech region bordering Hong Kong in the south. The other five cases were imported from overseas.

As the number of reported new infections continue to remain low, China has started to lift restrictions on public life.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/2020-04-26-coronavirus-news-n1192811/ncrd1192826#liveBlogHeader

#117 DON on 04.26.20 at 6:04 pm

#1 Flop… on 04.26.20 at 2:06 pm

**************
I talked to a BC Provincial Park Worker yesterday, it didn’t sound like they are opening anytime soon. Camping is cancelled at the moment.

5000K social distancing tree planters are about to start planting contracts before the summer heat comes. If it is a hot summer the back country will be shut down. Hope we have a mild summer.

#118 Canuck on 04.26.20 at 6:07 pm

DELETED

#119 Wrk.dover on 04.26.20 at 6:07 pm

The diagnosis and prognoses book doesn’t balance.

Markets priced too high, for the future they represent.

#120 Sail Away on 04.26.20 at 6:08 pm

“Worse, 61% of small business owners believe they’ll be roadkill within three months, and 76% will fail within five. Ouch”

—————

Hopefully my competitors, because we’re doing fine with good reserves.

Their star employees can always join the winning team.

#121 Drinking on 04.26.20 at 6:10 pm

Felix will be so proud of that useless feline that sitting there waiting for his/her hand out! :)

On a different note; myself working with Filipino’s over the years; they are decent hard working people. Yeah, I know there is always the argument that money is sent elsewhere like everyone else that is trying to “HELP OUT FAMILY”; the naysayers is unwarranted; https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cargill-high-river-jbs-brooks-deena-hinshaw-1.5545113,
it is not the hard working people that provide us with food but the owners and managers that are to blame.

I have lived in Alta for 50 plus years; been part of great teams from all cultures; the blame is not on the workers. Most of us get it here!

#122 Drinking on 04.26.20 at 6:12 pm

Correction, fat thumbs; it is the hard working people providing us with what we sustain.

#123 TRON on 04.26.20 at 6:12 pm

I can only imagine the number of kids who will be asking mom and dad to dip into their home equity for a loan. Also, I wish people would stop talking as if the government is bailing them out by providing financial assistance. It’s instead a loan from taxpayers and the companies that pay employee taxes on the 15th of every month forever. By shutting the economy we are just going to make it more difficult to employ people and pay all those taxes. There is nothing good about any of this and one can praise Trudeau because running a sociologist government is his pedigree; no accountability and an enslaved population.

#124 Nottawa Housing Bust on 04.26.20 at 6:12 pm

#49 Phil

I have a similar account with them and received the same notice. What is up with that. Maybe beat to break down into 4 accounts with 100 k in each for CDID purposes.

#125 DON on 04.26.20 at 6:15 pm

There’s been a surge in food delivery employment so maybe all restaurants will go to take out only. Even grocery’s can be ordered and delivered.

As for schools in BC, teachers are sending out lessens to kids. Working from home will be a savings for corporations/gov and reduce car travel and erase commuting time for most while allow easy of passage for those who must commute.

People can ware masks and glove where/when needed depending on situations.

Not sure why they are shutting down the great outdoors, in the Spring…’in the middle of the pouring rain’…?

The stores are still open just stood in a quick Rona line up, the store was just as empty as normal.

#126 Sail Away on 04.26.20 at 6:16 pm

#98 Dolce Vita on 04.26.20 at 5:21 pm

Make that No Fun Italia.

—————-

So nothing’s changed?

#127 Shivers down my spine on 04.26.20 at 6:22 pm

Whenever Trudeau speaks, it is like the proverbial fingernails on the chalk board. I become nauseated. I wonder if anyone else feels this way? I just don’t like the guy. Disingenuous.

#128 To 55 the prophet on 04.26.20 at 6:24 pm

Just because you had a bad feeling in January does not mean this will get worst or that’s the future years from now.
People do not understand that any predictions of the future changes as new information and decisions are made that changes the timeline.
For example yes your feeling in January was doom and gloom because the governments of the world were slow to react. And at the time governments were not going to take action.
therefore your prediction was made based on the timeline of no one taking action. Therefore your prediction was correct based on the decisions of the day.

However, and a big however, governments around the world change and reacted!
Now that time line has changed based on current decisions around the globe
So now what is your feeling for the next 6 months that’s what matters now because the timeline shifted to a new reality.
But I will add a interesting tidbit , think in the world of professional mediums who see the future, none are predicting disaster or doom and gloom
Even Garth says someday we will recover and he’s a normal guy with long hair tough abs motor bike. and two weekend soothsayers. Just saying.

#129 BrianT on 04.26.20 at 6:24 pm

#75Jacque-good comment about white collar urbanites-what people often miss is that the “education” system is largely a conformity factory-that is the exact blueprint it was set up under over 100 years ago and very little has changed to the structure since-which is mind boggling-the amount of taxpayer money wasted every year as the move to online learning is fought against tooth and nail by the government is enormous-anyway the reality is that the more years anybody plays the role of “student” the more of a conformist sheep they become-like training a dog-very difficult to shake the sheep mentality once it is ;locked in and for this reason very few “white collar urbanites” every try-the vast majority delegate all logical thinking to their perceived betters.

#130 kommykim on 04.26.20 at 6:24 pm

RE: Many small businesses won’t open again. Airbnb is toast.

========================================

Silver Lake Partners and Sixth Street Partners don’t think so. They collectively invested another billion on April 6th. I agree with you though, Airbnb will not be the same and am glad for it. Using residential properties for commercial purposes is just not right. Now if we could just get our municipal councils to crack down on all those illegal suites…

#131 Reality is stark on 04.26.20 at 6:25 pm

And you want to know how delusional the average Canadian is look no further than comment 86 from Camille. Every woman is going to marry Mr. Doctor.
Probably working 80 hour weeks at the hospital and pulling in $500,000 annually.
Yup he can afford any house he wants. Every 20-35 year old woman will qualify to be his wife.
Now for reality.
The average 40 year old GTA guy is about to get slaughtered. He’ll lose $500,000 on his house. His salary has been cut by 25% and likely his benefit cut is next. His portfolio will be down another 25% and there will be nothing for a decade of Christmases for the family. When that reality sets in his significant other will be filing for divorce (already happening in record numbers).
This isn’t a Disney fantasy Camille.
Stagflation is no party.
And no, they won’t all qualify for doctors. As a matter of fact most will be on social assistance.
He’ll lose $500,000

#132 kommykim on 04.26.20 at 6:29 pm

RE:#113 S.Bby on 04.26.20 at 5:55 pm
The longer our elected officials defer to the medical experts who now seem to be running our country, the worse the economic damage will become.

========================================

Yes, lets be like Trump and stop listening to those pesky experts. We need to find a way to get some UV light and disinfectant inside our bodies to avoid a COVID death by dying some other way. Genius.

#133 april on 04.26.20 at 6:31 pm

# 85 – exaggeration… these outbursts were going on prior to the lockdown.

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 6:31 pm

@#76 Dolce Vita

Interesting interview.
A possible 6-10 year recovery…. Yikes!

#135 DON on 04.26.20 at 6:35 pm

41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 3:49 pm

@#7 Arctic Outback
“Has anyone else noticed traffic picking up lately? ”
****

Yep,
Noticed it last week.
Rush hour is picking up.
Obviously people cant afford to stay home.
The trickle back to work will soon turn into a flood.
I feel sorry for the restaurants/barber shops/ etc. that are easy soft targets for the misguided By-Law ticket writers.
***********

lots of landscaping companies are on the road in the morning as the weather improves.

#136 Sydneysider on 04.26.20 at 6:38 pm

#56 Dolce Vita
#6 rentin

As I posted the other day, there has been a spectacular (ca. 20%) decline in the number of March deaths in BC this year, representing 600-700 people who have cheated death. (This can be compared with 100 covid deaths to date, and 50-100 monthly fentanyl deaths.)

Apparently the normal life that we all hanker for is more deadly than we appreciate.

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/life-events/statistics-reports/deaths

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 6:38 pm

@#116 Mark Morretti
“….name anything substantive Ford did differently in Ontario?”

+++
His brother was famous for all the wrong reasons and it helped him get elected?

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 6:43 pm

@#1+1+1= 4 I havent Figured it Out
“All we lose is a few months of economic output….

$$$$$$$

Your financial naiveté , while amusing, is somewhat troubling….
Talk to us this time next year and we’ll compare Coles Notes.

#139 Paul on 04.26.20 at 6:43 pm

#117 Long-Time Lurker on 04.26.20 at 6:04 pm

======

You are going to believe stats coming from China?

Want to buy a Condo? Lol

#140 espressobob on 04.26.20 at 6:44 pm

GFC, Brexit, or Corona, there proves to be something in common. A buying opportunity?

Few act on this, instead justifying the glass half empty.

Bummer.

#141 Nonplused on 04.26.20 at 6:48 pm

We are already at peak tax. There just isn’t anything left to tax out there, and nobody has any money. They could try raising taxes on the top 10% a little more but it will be a drop in the bucket.

I think we may be facing great social changes unlike anything we’ve seen before. The collapse of the Soviet Union comes to mind. But at least the Soviet Union was more or less separated ethnically and culturally into distinct geographical regions when it collapsed so the various countries more or less went their way peacefully and carried on in their own manners.

In Canada and the US it is not clear that could happen, because outside of Quebec we are all more or less mixed together. There will not be agreement between the left and the right what should be done. The government will not be able to bail everyone out forever, so at some point they will have to reopen the economy but that doesn’t mean the economy will want to be reopened. If so many businesses are closed forever as outlined as a possibility above that means possibly years of unemployment for many people. That won’t sit well with the restless youth once the CERB is phased out. They are going to riot. Desperate people do desperate things. Property crime (especially theft) will go way up. If you have a well stocked pantry make sure nobody knows about it.

The next few months will be telling. I’d watch Alberta as a canary in the coal mine because the oil price situation is going to be especially hard on that province. People could leave to find jobs I suppose, but where? And how will they sell their house when everyone is trying to leave? Imagine Calgary as an abandoned mining town. It won’t get that bad and it won’t last forever but we could be looking at a long road ahead.

All because of a stupid bat.

Pandemics are “whit swan” events, we’ve known about them for years. They come along with regular frequency. However the response has been unprecedented. Things are happening that have never been tried before. If you ask me, that makes for fertile ground for a “black swan” event. Something truly unexpected might happen as a result of all this intervention. You don’t take a finely tuned machine like a pocket watch and hit it with a hammer and expect that nothing will happen. Hopefully all we need to do is replace the crystal glass but at this point we don’t know how hard we hit the watch. It is stopped though, that much we can tell. I guess we’ll see when it’s time to wind it up whether it still works.

#142 Damifino on 04.26.20 at 6:52 pm

#26 Paul

After all the carnage, lost lives, jobs, relationships, changes to the world. All the blame on Politicians, Airlines,Dog walkers, bench sitters, on and on why isn’t the World isn’t screaming at and about CHINA
——————————-

Because it won’t do a scrap of good.

I greatly behooves western countries not to become dependent on anything China says or does when it comes to critical concerns of safety and security.

Consider Taiwan. They are the one country on Earth most distrusting of China. They prepared well and are doing well thanks to their previous experience with SARS and their rapid realization China was ‘hiding something’.

What a surprise!

I’m deeply disheartened by Canada’s criminal lack of preparedness. The word has been out for decades that the next pandemic is assuredly on it’s way.

No one from here forward should consider voting for politicians that don’t pledge to ensure our ability to fend for ourselves in such a crisis and further to be held accountable for inaction on the matter.
———————————————–

As for the USA, I knew long ago they’d lost the will to care for their own when I saw thousands of shocked and stressed people (mostly blacks) stranded in a New Orleans football area for many days after Hurricane Katrina. There were Canadians on the scene helping out long before FEMA mobilized a response.

#143 NFN_NLN on 04.26.20 at 6:58 pm

#91 Lee on 04.26.20 at 5:06 pm
I think the only long-term solution is some form of guaranteed minimum income for people 24 and over. This is not a refined plan but what I set out below would be some of the main points.

This is genius. Forget the virus, we should do this all the time. Just print money and hand it out. You can burn it for fuel, wipe with it, write on it and if you bundle it up you can make environmentally sustainable building material for the homeless.

Now we just need a solution to food production and we’re set. Any suggestions Lee?

#144 Flywest29 on 04.26.20 at 6:59 pm

#114 yvr_lurker

Luckily for everyone your feelings, thoughts and opinions mean nothing.

#145 Joe on 04.26.20 at 7:01 pm

Garth, hang in there , your going to make it!

#146 Pandemic on 04.26.20 at 7:01 pm

#117 Long-Time Lurker

I don’t trust the news out of China. It’s all heavily censored. The news from the MSM here is pretty bad too but at least we have an underground free press to fact check them.

For example, the MSM is running wild with the story that Trump said people should “drink bleach”. He never said the word “drink” or the word “bleach”, although it was quite a gaff. (He said “inject disinfectants” but I am sure he was thinking some sort of thing that wasn’t toxic and administered by a doctor.) But yet people are running with the idea that he said “drink bleach” as if it was verbatim. The media lies all the time, and that is here where it is not censored.

#147 TheDood on 04.26.20 at 7:03 pm

#9 Trojan House on 04.26.20 at 2:55 pm
Not sure if real estate sales are “not so hot.” At least for new builds. Standing in the social distancing line today at Home Hardware, the lady in front of me started up some small talk.

She said she works sales for a new builder. They put a new subdivision up online yesterday morning. It sold out in 3 minutes. Yes, 3 minutes! Online! Site unseen! It seems the coronavirus hasn’t stopped new home house lust.
____________________________________

Consider the source – a real estate SALES person. They have a vested interest in making sure everyone knows their product is business as usual, whether truth or lies.

#148 jess on 04.26.20 at 7:08 pm

refund transfers! making tax time easy indeed!

https://www.propublica.org/article/millions-of-people-face-stimulus-check-delays-for-a-strange-reason-they-are-poor

seven years ago
anuary 18, 2013 / 7:25 PM / 7 years ago
U.S. court strikes down IRS tax preparer regulations
Patrick Temple-West

4 Min Read

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – In a surprising blow to the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, a federal judge on Friday barred the agency from regulating thousands of non-professional tax return preparers, throwing into doubt a multimillion-dollar enforcement program already underway.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax-return-preparer/u-s-court-strikes-down-irs-tax-preparer-regulations-idusbre90i00p20130119

#149 Nonplused on 04.26.20 at 7:10 pm

#144 NFN_NLN on 04.26.20 at 6:58 pm
#91 Lee on 04.26.20 at 5:06 pm
I think the only long-term solution is some form of guaranteed minimum income for people 24 and over. This is not a refined plan but what I set out below would be some of the main points.

This is genius. Forget the virus, we should do this all the time. Just print money and hand it out. You can burn it for fuel, wipe with it, write on it and if you bundle it up you can make environmentally sustainable building material for the homeless.

Now we just need a solution to food production and we’re set. Any suggestions Lee?

—————————–

My suggestion would be to let people print their own money using ink jet printers. Only ink jet though, and not those new ecotank printers, they must be banned, along with refilling cartridges. That way the value of the currency would be backed by the cost of ink, which in an ink jet printer is one of the most expensive liquids on earth. Problem solved.

#150 BC Renovator on 04.26.20 at 7:11 pm

Hey Garth, long time reader, not much of a Comment’er.
Appreciate your insight and knowledge, as it has influenced me to invest more in markets and be more liquid, what better time!
Can you talk about Gold in one of your posts? I went against your advice last Summer and took some positions, which I still hold. Gold has ripped and has been great for rebalancing my portfolio to the upside. What are your thoughts on Gold today (besides it being “a Rock”) and how will it perform in Deflationary environment, in our near future? Thanks

#151 KNOW IT ALL on 04.26.20 at 7:12 pm

ONCE we get out of LOCKDOWN……

It’s NO HOLDS BARRED!!!

Gonna buy and do everything I ever wanted.

And I’m going to use the BANKS money to get it.

LIFE IS SHORT ….. ONE VIRUS IS ALL IT TAKES.

#152 MF on 04.26.20 at 7:16 pm

#107 Penny Henny on 04.26.20 at 5:37 pm

-Again, are you going to volunteer to be one of the first infected and be a guinea pig or not?

Sure the odds are on your side, but they are not 100% are they? Who is to say that you won’t be part of the smaller group of people with severe complications that affect you for the rest of your life? How would herd immunity feel then?

The truth is, you don’t have the right to decide who should be comfortable taking that risk. It’s like asking people to play Russian Roulette. I will leave it to the experts on this one.

“Son, you’ve been brainwashed. What is sad is you are only too happy to give away your freedoms.
I guess that is easier than accepting accountability for your own destiny.”

-Your belief that “brainwashing” is occurring is more of a reflection of your own beliefs than anything else. Like I posted earlier, the extremes to both sides of this issue are very vocal. The other 95% in the middle, where I lie, are taking a cautionary but open and flexible approach. I would be mindful of your own biases.

MF

#153 Todd on 04.26.20 at 7:20 pm

Garth, you seem to keep picking on teachers. I can only tell you what I am seeing everyday in my home. My wife working her butt off delivering online learning to her students. She has been working 14hr days between posting work, marking work, communication with students, zoom meetings, and trying to learn new ways to educate he students. They may not be in the classroom, but they are most certainly working.

Well, she is. And our thanks for the dedication. – Garth

#154 Nonplused on 04.26.20 at 7:20 pm

#4 THE DEBT LOVER on 04.26.20 at 2:31 pm
The fortress surrounding CAPITALISM has crumbled!

————————-

No, the fortress surrounding fictionalization has crumbled. Capitalism as Adam Smith defined it is doing just fine. (For those who don’t have time to read the book, capital is investment in productivity improvements paid for out of profits. Think a farmer’s barn. Heck taking time to clear the boulders from the field is a capital investment. A leveraged buyout is not.)

#155 Kona on 04.26.20 at 7:24 pm

Gotta love real estate boards. On April 14th, Ottawa’s Real Estate Board stated that home sales were down more than 60% in the first two weeks of April. Average residential prices it stated dipped slightly, from about $505,000 in 2019 to $496,000 in April 2020.

What they didn’t point out though was that average residential prices in Feb 2020 was $564,000 and March 2020 was $560,000 making that dip in the first two weeks of April unheard of in sleepy Ottawa.

#156 not 1st on 04.26.20 at 7:32 pm

MF, Canadas currency is not tied to the US currency. Its tied to oil, interest rates, debt and our credit rating.

So guess where it is heading.

And when the US does boom, I am willing to bet dollars to donuts we don’t participate this time.

Name one economic endeavor that Trudeau has announced in his 5+ yrs? Not once did he enhance any of our powerhouse sectors except taking debt and buying votes with it. That’s all he has done. The real pain hasn’t even started for Canada. I imagine he is trying to hide out for another 6 weeks, shut down parliament for the summer then try to remerge in the fall for a snap election. If I am the leader of the CPC, I wouldn’t want to win that election. Let him own it.

I am willing to buy a put on Justin. A nice big fat long one. I am willing to bet that Canada now follows every other file he has touched.

#157 Asterix1 on 04.26.20 at 7:32 pm

Prices have been falling in GTA RE for a few years. When you compare apples to apples, it’s a big -% drop compared to the past.

Sure, average price may have gone up, means nothing. Stat manipulation at best.

Debt levels are atrocious, salaries stagnated a while back + this Pandemic financial repercussions! It is toast!

Lots of agents posting today. The funniest “was at the supermarket, lady sold all units in 3h”. Or the “things haven’t changed crowd”…

To all they younger folks, try and move to the USA for 2 years. Make US$, save, them come back if you want, get lots of C$ Pesos, and buy a home.

#158 Pandemic on 04.26.20 at 7:33 pm

#47 TonyT on 04.26.20 at 3:57 pm

The comment was about New York. This is not New York. Not so hard to understand. – Garth

————————

Garth hasn’t maybe referred to the stats on his blog because “it isn’t a virus blog”, but he is obviously aware of them. If you take New York out of the statistics, particularly “lower New York” (what we typically think of as New York city), the stats for the US don’t look all that bad and the US drops to 11th for deaths per 100,000 people. New York city is an outbreak, and I think if you’ve ever been there you could understand why they were more vulnerable than say Nebraska. So the problem is that the government instituted a “one size fits all” solution whereby what was good for New York was applied to the whole nation.

#159 Randy on 04.26.20 at 7:37 pm

The good news for LTC homes is that all deaths will be blamed on Covid-19 and they won’t be investigated or sued for C Difficle as the cause of all these deaths.

#160 DON on 04.26.20 at 7:37 pm

#76 Dolce Vita on 04.26.20 at 4:37 pm

Thanks for the you tube link – he’s not the only one thinking this way.

#161 Figure it Out on 04.26.20 at 7:41 pm

“Whenever Trudeau speaks, it is like the proverbial fingernails on the chalk board. I become nauseated.”

– Doctor, it hurts when I do this
– So don’t DO that!

I haven’t heard Trudeau’s voice in weeks. If he says anything important, it’ll be on the news websites in fifteen minutes, and if he says anything REALLY important and you need to hear the wording and nuance for yourself, I assume you can go back and watch that one video?

Why torture yourself unnecessarily? Unless you get off on that sort of thing…

#162 Pension expert on 04.26.20 at 7:46 pm

Public sector union leaders would have been wise to offer up a 10% pay cut because there will be a lot of layoff notices to the 6.5 million public servants in Canada when governments struggle to meet payroll.$200-$250 billion deficits can easily spiral into $500 billion when revenue has dried up.Government workers of all stripes will be hurt—it will just take a few months.

#163 yvr_lurker on 04.26.20 at 7:55 pm

#145 Flywest29

Luckily for everyone your feelings, thoughts and opinions mean nothing.

——
I concur, and no need to read the link I provided. Everything you need to know you can get from the twitter feeds of the big Orange dope.

#164 Tim123 on 04.26.20 at 8:02 pm

I don’t see things getting back to normal until there is a vaccine which is over a year away. There currently is no treatment if you get coronavirus virus so that will be important to get. I have heard that a treatment can hopefully be developed later this year if we are lucky.
This means many of the jobs will not come back for a while. I think tourism related jobs and close contact jobs ( hotels, restaurants, retail stores, coffee shops, dentists, optometrists, gyms, airlines) will not come back for a while, at least until a treatment is found but not fully back until a vaccine is found in mid 2021 at the earliest.
This implies that real estate is going to crash badly. The prices were too high and when people lose their jobs they likely will have to sell. Others who will have to sell include landlords who have tenants who have missed payments. Also investors with units in AirBnB will also be forced to sell.

#165 Drill Baby Drill on 04.26.20 at 8:09 pm

This Covid 19 BS came right at the right time for Selfie Boy. The economy was tanking anyway now with Corona he can shut the economy down hand out tons of Canadian Tire money and sit back and say “see can’t blame me”. Very convenient for him.

#166 MF on 04.26.20 at 8:14 pm

#158 not 1st on 04.26.20 at 7:32 pm

The entire Canadian economy is greater than any elected politician from any political parties, even though they do have some input.

The Canadian currency is also tied to economic strength like GDP, unemployment etc. in addition to everything you mentioned.

If the US economy booms down south I see it as virtually impossible to not have a positive effect on us. It always does. I wouldn’t bet against it.

I also see a lasting effect of this pandemic being a return of some manufacturing (pharma, medical supplies) to north america, and greater flow of these goods between us and the US.

MF

#167 Franco on 04.26.20 at 8:20 pm

Trump would be proud of you, it’s the only thing Trump cares about and that is making money. No one knows where this virus thing is going, what if a vaccine is not found, what if this virus is the virus that keeps on giving, lot of what ifs. I do not like what is happening to our economy, but somehow I believe that we are doing the right thing as most governments and Scientists all over the world are saying this is very serious. This virus has silenced the opposition parties here in Canada and the U.S., not often that you have political parties come to the same stage at the same time and agreeing with each other.

#168 Lost...but not leased on 04.26.20 at 8:33 pm

#161 Randy on 04.26.20 at 7:37 pm
The good news for LTC homes is that all deaths will be blamed on Covid-19 and they won’t be investigated or sued for C Difficle as the cause of all these deaths.

======================

Actually………NO……au contraire.

The longer this “alleged pandemic” goes on..the more people…(albeit a current minority that can only get larger)….will wake up and realize we are not only being scammed fiscally……but much much WORSE.

#169 neo on 04.26.20 at 8:41 pm

I just want to remind all the alarmists on here.

There has been 835 deaths in Ontario so far.

0-19 years old. 0 deaths.
20-39 years old. 3 deaths.
40-59 years old. 22 deaths.
60+ years old. 810 deaths.

So 25 deaths in a population of 14.5 million people in the past 2 months under 60 years old. Yet we shut the entire economy over this and convince everyone under 60 they are all going to die.

The government and MSM refuses to release this information and would rather have everyone living in fear.

This is absurd.

#170 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 04.26.20 at 8:48 pm

The Sobey’s here in London, ON was kinda empty on Saturday a.m. The cashier was a gem (serious good attitude). Sobey’s is east coast so they know their good manners rock the Ontario folks big time. Then I met a lovely young South Korean student on the way to my car, she said it was a struggle to get her air back to Seoul but she is gone end of April. Funny how darned nice those foreign kidz are? Those foreign students are a nice bunch we are lucky to visit us here in Canada. Now that I have adapted to the new autocratic “science” in charge of our life and future my only real issue is getting “dental care”. I am able to cook; sew; clean and manage in my domestic life but “I can’t pull teeth”. Yes, the media has “browbeaten us into complete SUBMISSION” including me but I won’t fight the transformation. In dollars and cents they have taken a “high-end upscale middle class consumer” and beaten him/her into a curmudgin miser non pareil. Yes my friendz gone are the Starbucks lattes; the hair salon; the nail salon; the massage; the car wash; the Keg; Tim Horton’s; the mall; BEd Bath and Beyond and on and on and on. So now I spend nada. Heck I bought two pounds of lean hamburger and made three meals. Yes, I can take ten pounds of Potatoes for $2.99 and they last three weeks. Scrooge has nothing on me. I guess the Uber Autocrate Major deserves my unbending bow.

#171 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 8:50 pm

@#165 Pension expert
“Public sector union leaders would have been wise to offer up a 10% pay cut because there will be a lot of layoff notices to the 6.5 million public servants in Canada when governments struggle to meet payroll.”

-0$-0$-0$-0$-0$

yep.
Gonna be interesting seeing how much union brotherly love there is at public works when Mr Lay-off or Mr. Pay-cut comes a-knockin.
Especially when everyone is up to their eyeballs in debt and they cant take either.

#172 DON on 04.26.20 at 8:52 pm

“Chinese households faced high debt risk before coronavirus hit

Survey by central bank highlights problems the economy was facing before the Covid-19 outbreak
More than half of families were in debt, particularly the middle classes and small businesses”

https://www.scmp.com/news/article/3081560/chinese-households-faced-high-debt-risk-coronavirus-hit

#173 Trojan House on 04.26.20 at 9:04 pm

#30 Keen Reader on 04.26.20 at 3:40 pm

The headline on Yahoo News read “Canada reaches dire new coronavirus milestone.” Opened it up and it was that Canada has reached 2500 deaths.

#174 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.20 at 9:10 pm

@#168 MF
“If the US economy booms down south ….”
++++

You expect this mythical boom to occur in the next
3 months?
6 months ?
12 Months?
2 years?
4 ?

#175 BobC on 04.26.20 at 9:13 pm

Interesting how they report deaths daily but never the number that recovers.
Doom and gloom is what everybody wants I guess.

#176 Figure it Out on 04.26.20 at 9:15 pm

“The government and MSM refuses to release this information and would rather have everyone living in fear.”

So how’d you get a hold of it? Dumpster diving behind Queen’s Park at midnight?

Here, let me help you out:
https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2020-04-20.pdf

Comes out every day. Cases and deaths, by age group. Just change the date in the URL for different dates.

The Truth is Out There, and THEY aren’t hiding it from you. Who’s been telling you different?

#177 Jager on 04.26.20 at 9:21 pm

So there’s this growing sentiment…

https://mobile.twitter.com/SallyMayweather/status/1253470128928407558/photo/1

#178 S on 04.26.20 at 9:32 pm

In the last couple of centuries several million people died fighting so that we today can live in a relatively free world. Interesting how quickly we give up the civil rights bought and paid for with blood with hardly asking a question of our leaders… and not just in Canada. And where is the media in all this? I guess so long as the fridge is full and entertainment aplenty all is well. Shame on us all.

#179 Wrk.dover on 04.26.20 at 9:32 pm

#163 Figure it Out on 04.26.20 at 7:41 pm
“Whenever Trudeau speaks, it is like the proverbial fingernails on the chalk board. I become nauseated.”

– Doctor, it hurts when I do this
– So don’t DO that!

I haven’t heard Trudeau’s voice in weeks. If he says anything important, it’ll be on the news websites in fifteen minutes, and if he says anything REALLY important and you need to hear the wording and nuance for yourself, I assume you can go back and watch that one video?

Why torture yourself unnecessarily? Unless you get off on that sort of thing…

———————————

It’s not what Trudeau says, it’s how he says it. Every sentence has the volume clipped on the last w___.

So yeah, wait to read what ever point he makes that a journalist throws out there, or read the trans_____.

That’s a__.

#180 You know val on 04.26.20 at 9:34 pm

That’s correct Garth be like Governor Cuomo….he’s the best answer…the people RULE,…

#181 J. Canuck on 04.26.20 at 9:34 pm

On an entirely different subject, what happened to the drive to make more information available to citizens searching for a house to buy? I thought that listings would be up front about previous selling prices, days on market etc.

Nova Scotia does it, but it appears everyone else is behind the curve.

#182 Dave on 04.26.20 at 9:39 pm

Teachers and other Government employees need to chip-in their share. Especially the teachers, they are working about 25% ..should be furloughed.

#183 Steven Nicolle on 04.26.20 at 9:47 pm

China has the draconian measures but they are working. Never would you see the same implemented here and especially in States. Their first wave will still be going on till the Fall when the next wave hits. Goodbye Trump!

#184 Doug t on 04.26.20 at 9:52 pm

Looks like “teaching” may become extinct in the traditional form in the near future. Heck those box’s we all lived in were nothing more than daycare and a Petri dish rolled into one – AI will eventually take over the roll of putting kids brains in a blender

#185 Gil on 04.26.20 at 10:07 pm

Given what now appear to be structural changes in the economy (high jobless numbers, business failures, increasing tax, reduced mobility, oil price plop) why should we expect buyers to leap back into action?
****************************************
Finally, Garth. It took you a while but you finally admit that the consequences are structural. Its not some passing craze. Structural problems exacerbated by huge pile of debt from residents as well as businesses. As a result very little wiggle room for maneuver

#186 Annek on 04.26.20 at 10:10 pm

Shivers down my spine on 04.26.20 at 6:22 pm
Whenever Trudeau speaks, it is like the proverbial fingernails on the chalk board. I become nauseated. I wonder if anyone else feels this way? I just don’t like the guy. Disingenuous.
——
I agree. He is just reading rehearsed scripts that his writers have written for him. Giving out money as if there is no tomorrow. A minority government making daily decisions without parliamentary consent.

#187 Teacher on 04.26.20 at 10:16 pm

“…but no teachers or civil servants were furloughed. Some people wonder about that.“
————————————
My wife is a teacher. I can guarantee you that she’s working harder and more hours now than at school, which was already a lot. If she was furloughed, the government would partly pay her anyways and then there would be absolutely no distance learning provided by the school boards for the students. I guess those that don’t have kids might wonder.

#188 dosouth on 04.26.20 at 10:16 pm

We will see how much longer young folks who are getting paid for doing nothing will want to sit and wait. Us oldies actually believed the reports in the beginning now…..we have a child telling us what to do when he has no idea.

This too will not end well if he doesn’t hurry up and actually make a decision. Not sure what poll u found his ratings were up but hope they are more accurate soon, you know, like the supposed effects of this virus. But then what do we know…..

#189 Toni on 04.26.20 at 10:21 pm

Wait for when JT will turn off the tap. BTW, will he at one point? Should not the cheque book put in a safe? anyway… then that will take a few months to really start feeling the domino effect of this shutdown, when cash flow dries up. The entrepreneur spirit and confidence will take a while to come back. Recovery is all about confidence, gone for a while, not coming back soon, as long as we are told that a second wave could hit us, expect a new “normal”, blablabla, etc..

#190 Kilt on 04.26.20 at 10:23 pm

#14 not 1st

The west is already moving toward the US to create an oil economic zone.

——-
Good luck with that. Oil will be dead for a very long time. You lose credibility to bring that up.
——-

#34 Stone
I guess everyone striving to be a Starbucks barista is having second thoughts now.

——
Our Starbucks is still open. Busy as hell too. Any restaurants/cafe with drive-thru or take out options are open. I have yet to see any places shut down.
——

Garth says
“Airbnb is toast”
Not quite. It might even benefit from people straying away from Hotels due to the turnover rates. There hasn’t been a significant drop in available listings. Bookings have taken a beating, but they are starting to stabilize. Sure, some landlords may throw in the towel. But the concept will survive.

Kilt.

#191 YouKnowWho on 04.26.20 at 10:28 pm

Garth, you watch MSM? I do enjoy a dog and pony show on occasion.

See all that protesting going on? Open the beach! Open the city! People have had enough!

If Canada was hitting 19C we’d have a rebellion!

Too bad you aren’t in the Niagara Region anymore. It was like a zombie apocalypse yesterday. You would have enjoyed a walk.

#192 Drinking on 04.26.20 at 10:29 pm

#91 Lee

24 and over (what do you mean by over? 25); huh??? You cannot be serious’ 55 and over I can understand since I had (and many of us) forced to work since I/they were around 8 yrs old. Either you did it or got your ass kicked!! 24 give me a fricken break!!!! Wow, just wow, grow the hell up!!!

#193 Canada-USA on 04.26.20 at 10:32 pm

@ #64 Not a sheeple

You are so right “Not a sheeple”, Garth is forgetting the silent minority.
Trump is the only president in the world standing in front of the media everyday, very smart and driving them crazy, I love it!

Trump 2020!

#194 Double Spacing PLease on 04.26.20 at 10:33 pm

Garth you are not helping social distancing. Could you please start using double spacing on the page to show you get it?

#195 Canada-USA on 04.26.20 at 10:35 pm

Garth, please change “minority” for majority”. My bad, just watched “Minority report” last week.

#196 Gil on 04.26.20 at 10:35 pm

#95 Lee
The minimum income would have to be substantial though – like $50,000 for an individual, $70,000 per couple, and then another $10,000 per child under 20.
***************************************

In US prisons let the inmates go due to COVID19. Canada is paving way with setting insane free

#197 Lee on 04.26.20 at 10:37 pm

#164,

Not one full time government worker will be laid off. Older ones may be offered early retirement packages. Hiring will slow to a trickle. There will be no raises for years. But nobody will be laid off. The unions have been part of the bailout talks.

#198 the Jaguar on 04.26.20 at 11:31 pm

@
#142 Nonplused on 04.26.20 at 6:48 pm

Steady kid. This is not the time to sink into deep despair. We will need all our all skill, determination, and faith in our abilitities to find our way home.
This is Alberta. We don’t quit. Not in our DNA.
Take a look at this video clip. The way out will be nothing short of a resurrection. It will be, to borrow a descriptive phrase from the pandemic, ‘unprecedented’. Keep hope alive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPOvBPRYkts

#199 Dominoes Lining Up on 04.26.20 at 11:32 pm

Further to my earlier post –

I was bored and took the dogs for a drive this evening in the long spring daylight. Drove around to check out the parks and see what’s still open in midtown. Checked out about a dozen or more residential streets within 2km of my place. Hardly any listings, but here’s what I counted:

11 houses total with signs on the lawn

4 were for sale

7 already sold

(Two of the solds just happened since Friday, as well.)

So there is some unexpected energy in the real estate market right now in TO, it seems, in terms of sales speed, while volume is way down, though.

I also was in a lower income area driving around yesterday, and noticed no SFD for sale signs at all among hundreds of houses, really odd for springtime.

This will be interesting as it plays out. I won’t be surprised to see major market ups and downs, maybe both, week by week.

#200 the Jaguar on 04.26.20 at 11:45 pm

Oh. I might have got the wrong clip.
Non Plused….here is the Alberta landing……

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3LcGb0DGM8

#201 rob on 04.27.20 at 12:00 am

@ #154
My sister-in-law, who works as a teacher for the Hamilton-Wentworth Catholic District School Board, says that all she’s been doing is watching Netflix and gardening. Once a week posting work online and barely marking anything…AND getting paid…regularly!

#202 Stoner on 04.27.20 at 12:37 am

What is wrong with this?
Canada’s debt to GDP is already around 350% and will get worse as the debt increases through QE by BOC and all the largesse from the government plus GDP lays an egg because of economic shutdown.
CAD goes to 60UScents.
Bond vigilantes make an appearance and refuse to buy Canadian treasuries at low interests.
BOC keeps printing money because Bonds don’t sell.
CAD goes to 50 US cents.
Rinse and repeat and you get hyperinflation or to restore confidence in Canada, BOC is forced to increase the yields to some ridiculously high number which crashes the stock market.
Meanwhile to further reduce the deficit, Canada starts punitively high levels of taxes including taxes on primary residence sales, increasing taxes on Capital gains. They can’t extract any more blood from high income earners.
It seems to me like we are going to experience incredible amount of pain no matter what.
I’m trying to figure out why this logic is flawed. Anyone?

#203 Lee Adams on 04.27.20 at 12:47 am

#10 Do we all have the facts

“I live in Peterborough (90,000 pop) where there has been one death contributed to the Covid 19 virus. The majority of people I talk to are certain that it was the lockdown that avoided hundreds more.

When I suggest that our Government compare all deaths over the past six weeks with historical mortality rates to determine a more accurate picture of the true impact that the Covid 19 virus has had in Canada I am met with astonished stares.

What if it turns out that the number of additional deaths that occurred during the imposed lockdown was only slightly higher than historical averages? Would that mean that lockdowns will become the norm every flu season or would it indicate that Covid 19 might not have been as deadly as predicted.

One thing is certain and that is all Canadians have paid a very high price to implement strategies designed to protect us from a threat that has yet to be measured against mortality rates based on actual facts. Counting the number of dead without historical contexts seems somewhat irresponsible to me.

We deserve better from our elected governments.”

Well check this out because it goes 180 degrees against the current norm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

#204 Goober on 04.27.20 at 12:49 am

Hey #171 neo:
Just to add to your mortality breakdown:

There has been 6 deaths in Manitoba so far:
– 0-19 years old. 0 deaths
– 20-39 years old. 0 deaths
– 40-59 years old. 1 death (54 year-old)
– 60+ years old. 5 deaths

So 1 death under 60-years-old in a population of 1.37 million people during the past 2 months.

Absurd doesn’t even begin to describe it.

————————————————————–

I just want to remind all the alarmists on here.

There has been 835 deaths in Ontario so far.

0-19 years old. 0 deaths.
20-39 years old. 3 deaths.
40-59 years old. 22 deaths.
60+ years old. 810 deaths.

So 25 deaths in a population of 14.5 million people in the past 2 months under 60 years old. Yet we shut the entire economy over this and convince everyone under 60 they are all going to die.

The government and MSM refuses to release this information and would rather have everyone living in fear.

This is absurd.

#205 Lee on 04.27.20 at 12:55 am

#144,

You’re so shortsighted. If you crunch the numbers you’ll see that you won’t need to print money. But that being said I have talked to people about this idea today and one modification i would make is it would kick in at 50. We don’t want to tie down the exuberance of youth. 50 is when a lot of people start to find keeping and finding work quite hard. There are people in that age range in 2008 who never found gainful employment ever again even after years of success before then. We can’t go on like present. And I voted Ford.

#206 Long term plan? on 04.27.20 at 1:43 am

153 MF on 04.26.20 at 7:16 pm

If not herd immunity, then what? Lockdown until new cases =0?

I thought that the idea was to max out the healthcare system.(without overwhelming it) so that we are close to but not going over 1 in 1 out of hospitals until we hit that 70%

Maybe I’m missing something but as far as I can tell anything else is either a lockdown that lasts for several months(18?) waiting for a vaccine that might not happen, or a cycle of lockdowns for each seemingly inevitable wave of outbreaks.

For small countries that acted quickly the eradication method was possible (e.g. NZ) but with virtually no immunity they will have to be forever vigilant at their borders like never before. Not too bad for an island, but for Canada? Could we ever reach a point where can-us borders could be reasonable again?

Before you ask, yes, I would volunteer for herd immunity, I’m 40.

#207 Drunken Stupor on 04.27.20 at 1:53 am

DELETED

#208 Goober on 04.27.20 at 2:02 am

Hey #171 neo:
Further to my earlier Manitoba update, my family in Saskatchewan just sent this to add to the record:

There has been 4 deaths in Saskatchewan so far:
– 0-19 years old 0 deaths
– 20-39 years old 0 deaths
– 40-59 years old 0 deaths
– 60+ years old 4 deaths

So 0 deaths under 60 years old in a population of 1.168 million people during the past 2 months. Beyond absurd (part 3)

Anyone else want to help fill in the remaining provincial numbers?

———————————————————

I just want to remind all the alarmists on here.

There has been 835 deaths in Ontario so far.

0-19 years old. 0 deaths.
20-39 years old. 3 deaths.
40-59 years old. 22 deaths.
60+ years old. 810 deaths.

So 25 deaths in a population of 14.5 million people in the past 2 months under 60 years old. Yet we shut the entire economy over this and convince everyone under 60 they are all going to die.

The government and MSM refuses to release this information and would rather have everyone living in fear.

This is absurd.

#209 Robert Ash on 04.27.20 at 2:49 am

Deflation will affect all Asset prices and Wages will be pressured Downward. Prices for items, then will begin to fall… Heavily Leveraged Debt like Real Property will be also negatively affected, and this is accelerated by the Psychology to commit to a major leveraged purchase. So Housing will experience a significant correction in Van and TO…. Sadly! Non Liquid Financial assets, and some common stock because of the very excessive Corporate Debt and Future Earnings will push Equity values lower, unless the Corporates have good Balance sheets, unlevered, and a bonus if they have free cash flow… Air Canada, bought their stock when the should have been selling stock at these higher multiples, for example… So many Corporations, like this… If you own a House, and enjoy it… relax, but consider staying in this property for another 7-10 years… If I owned a Revenue Property I would list it today and take any reasonable offer… any reasonable offer… Cash will be an appreciating asset.
My concern just now is on the Food Supply as Albatiors, and Ag Producers, cull and dump, render and destroy… Hopefully someone focuses on this potential problem… It is what it is… But comparing Death and Infection rates while being Quarantined, seems, Pointless other than to suggest it is working… The other rather scary consideration is that CV19, is like the HIV debacle, that is still with us, and the Virus mutates, continuously and a Vaccine is ellusory…. Dog a smile and a pass please….

#210 Ustabe on 04.27.20 at 3:07 am

Welp, I’ve been trying to leave this crap show alone but some of you need to look at the charts contained within this FT.com article. (Financial Times)

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

Won’t click? Well, it tells us that this Covid stuff is definitely not the flu.

Recall China…85,000 deaths reported but way over 20 million cell phone accounts dropped. But I’m sure that is normal, to lose so many accounts right at their biggest holiday period.

#211 Tony on 04.27.20 at 3:13 am

What people do not realize is they actually do not make any money on their primary residence. If I buy a house for 500k, and take a 30 year mortgage with a 10% down payment. in 30 years I have paid close to 1.5 million for the house including property tax and interest. Then there are renovations, upkeep, etc. If i sell the house for 1.75 million in 30 years, after land transfer tax, real state fees, and other small expenses, I MADE NO MONEY. Yes you read that right. I just received it all at once but over the last 30 years I have spent what I sold for. Because people need a roof over their heads, and somewhere to live, there will always be a strong market in Canada, along with all the immigration coming in. 1st train of thought for immigrants? own your own home. That is how it works.

Almost all people are renting their homes from the bank.

#212 James Kook on 04.27.20 at 4:23 am

Herdonomics tells that nature will win,
As quickly as the herd was scared, as quickly will forget.

Everyplace will be crowded virtually next day after they think no danger, the big shepherds declare The End, and mass-media stops spreading BS.

#213 Toronto_CA on 04.27.20 at 5:30 am

Remember when Lisa Simpson pulls out her rock, and convinces Homer that it keeps Tigers away?

Homer : Well, there’s not a bear in sight. The Bear Patrol is sure doing its job.
Lisa : That’s specious reasoning, Dad.
Homer : Thank you, sweetie.
Lisa : Dad, what if I were to tell you that this rock keeps away tigers.
Homer : Uh-huh, and how does it work?
Lisa : It doesn’t work. It’s just a stupid rock.
Homer : I see.
Lisa : But you don’t see any tigers around, do you?
Homer : Lisa, I’d like to buy your rock.

I’m starting to think a lot of governments are Homer. If the virus is completely widespread already as a lot of studies suggest, the damage is largely done. Hospitals haven’t been over run, which was the point of the lockdowns. No one wanted to see ICU beds being rationed out to the youngest while old people died (although this sort of Sophie’s Choice thing does happen in the medical world all the time).

We aren’t seeing this. Here in the UK we have completely empty hospitals capable of taking thousands of Covid patients (Nightingale Hospitals).

It’s time to start slowly reopening. A “chance” of a 2nd wave destroying the economy is a better risk than a certainty that the first wave will, in my mind. I don’t know how anyone can argue otherwise.

#214 Neo on 04.27.20 at 6:43 am

#178 Figure it Out on 04.26.20 at 9:15 pm
“The government and MSM refuses to release this information and would rather have everyone living in fear.”

So how’d you get a hold of it? Dumpster diving behind Queen’s Park at midnight?

Here, let me help you out:
https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2020-04-20.pdf

Comes out every day. Cases and deaths, by age group. Just change the date in the URL for different dates.

The Truth is Out There, and THEY aren’t hiding it from you. Who’s been telling you different?

******************************

You are just proving my point. Most people just sit in front of the TV and listen to whatever CP24, CTV or CBC tells them. Politicians like Ford and Trudeau have never calmed people down by saying their children are safe. They continue to shutdown schools by implying the complete opposite. Just read the release by Lecce. Dr. Tam has NEVER at any point given out this information. It’s just death counts and new cases and new outbreaks all day 24/7 with very little context unless you are willing to dig for it. Just stay home and be scared. There is no transparency in the daily endless news conferences. Just fear mongering every day.

#215 LP on 04.27.20 at 7:11 am

#203 rob on 04.27.20 at 12:00 am
@ #154
My sister-in-law, who works as a teacher for the Hamilton-Wentworth Catholic District School Board, says that all she’s been doing is watching Netflix and gardening. Once a week posting work online and barely marking anything…AND getting paid…regularly!
*****************************
Then your s-i-l is a failure as a teacher in this current context and perhaps also in normal times. Taking her salary while doing next to nothing is fraud IMO. And having the nerve to brag about it is beyong the Pale.

#216 James on 04.27.20 at 7:27 am

#23 YouKnowWho on 04.26.20 at 3:26 pm

Is anyone else angry? I’m angry.

The US and Canadian MSM is just insane!

I hope all of you have gone on youtube to listen to the clip that Trump said about UV light and bleach.

Here is a guy, President no less, in an open stand up meeting setting, brainstorming and throwing ideas, and he’s being chastised for it?

Balance of post removed….
—————-

Here’s a wiki page that explains in detail where your theories originate in respect to the defending the President:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki//wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

Read this and think about it.

It’s spot on!

#217 Kathy on 04.27.20 at 7:52 am

I read your post every day. I look forward to it, in fact I check the web site multiple times until the daily post is there! I do have a life, though I sit behind a computer all day for work.
I have never contributed to your comments section, but I am writing this message in appreciation for the time and commitment you put into it every day.
Cheers

#218 belly rubs on 04.27.20 at 7:53 am

Living on farm, wholesale garden products, can’t keep up with requests. No sleep, early season, preparing for field seeding like mad. Peas, beets, onions, some tubers in. Doubling our raised beds. Lots of fauna: baby deers, ducks, songbirds, squirrels, meadow life very noisy. Costs for fuel cheap, a bonus, though having to do more equip fixes on site, some part delays. Lots of sunlight early this year (two weeks early) but ground still chilly. Cultivating and getting soil fluffy. Bees and hummingbirds around. Trees filling out. Went to town for “essentials” two or three times–pretty laid back, no stress. Pandemic so far about a 3/10 on my crisis meter. Could be one of our best years ever, given gardening interest. Normal u-picks for early summer should be no problem.

Outcome really depends on an individual’s positioning going into a situation, and considering the animals and dependents onsite, we have to be prepared to carry on through any crisis (financial, fire, drought or otherwise) just as a matter of lifestyle.

Alarm going off…4:30am

#219 Stan Brooks on 04.27.20 at 8:17 am

I see, so the broken renters who don’t have saved money for a month or two of rent are going to create the demand for multimillion dollar homes in GTA/Vancouver because ‘the government can not allow housing to fail’.

Just watch out and relax as everything it seems is starting to fall apart. For example, no meat at the shelf, oversupply or potatoes when people can’t afford french fries:

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/family-farms-will-be-lost-hog-farmers-fear-bankruptcies-pork-shortage-as-meat-packing-plants-close

It is just one damn month into the crisis.

What lies ahead?

The degree of indebtedness of the plebs is simply alarming. No savings whatsoever.

And the distribution of handouts is telling, mostly to unemployed workers, leaving small business owners, contractors and retirees out. In US they give the cheques to everyone. But we are the ‘social country’.

Sure and enjoy the ride,

Cheers,

#220 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.20 at 8:31 am

Will WWIII start over a really cheesy song?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-philippines-china/blow-for-chinas-virus-diplomacy-as-friendship-song-leaves-filipinos-furious-idUSKCN229131

Only China’s patrol boats know for sure.

#221 Figure it Out on 04.27.20 at 8:34 am

#215 Toronto_CA — “It’s time to start slowly reopening. A “chance” of a 2nd wave destroying the economy is a better risk than a certainty that the first wave will, in my mind. I don’t know how anyone can argue otherwise.”

Put it in numbers. Closing the economy costs ___ per week. If we reopen early, there’s a ___ chance that we’ll lose control and have to shut down all over again for another ___ weeks. If we keep things closed untll we are more sure, it will definitely cost ___. So the expected costs of the alternatives are ___ and ___.

Let’s see your numbers! Please don’t be that guy who fudges the numbers when his initial estimates come out more costly than he thought (I’m not saying they will, just resist the urge if they do).

#222 Toronto_CA on 04.27.20 at 8:57 am

#223 Figure it Out on 04.27.20 at 8:34 am

The costs are the same per week if we shut it down this week or next, so it’s basically if the risk is 10% of a recurrence being so high it overwhelms healthcare and forces us to reclose the economy (I think that 10% is about right, but agree that’s very subjective!) it’s 10x more costly to keep things closed indefinitely until a cure is found versus slowly reopening the economy now with social distancing and precautions taken.

#223 NoName on 04.27.20 at 9:05 am

#212 Ustabe on 04.27.20 at 3:07 am
Welp, I’ve been trying to leave this crap show alone but some of you need to look at the charts contained within this FT.com article. (Financial Times)

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

Won’t click? Well, it tells us that this Covid stuff is definitely not the flu.

Recall China…85,000 deaths reported but way over 20 million cell phone accounts dropped. But I’m sure that is normal, to lose so many accounts right at their biggest holiday period.

Cmon dont try to spin that 20mil in funny way. when i lose a job first thing i do is cut is cable and cell.

Just think about infrastructure and logistic of burning or burying 166666 people per day (and that is assuming over 4 month, asuming they head start for december and an article was published around this time in march if i remember corectly).

you shoud be sent in penalty box with someone else for not thinking …

#224 TurnerNation on 04.27.20 at 9:05 am

Many on here are still thinking in terms of the Old System. Why is the Govt not doing this or that.
I will tell you. The Old System is over. Let me tell you a little about the new system

It’s been said that the New System has been soft-sold to us for years in TV, Movies.

1. Court Systems and Landlord/tenant boards. I think there’s a good chance they will not be re-opened. The backlog would be untenable, cases would all be thrown out over delays.
In the New System crime will be almost nothing. “Sci-fi” told is this already. The electronic and biometric tracking will spot and ID criminals in real time.
Smart cities – as mentioned the Globe & Mail just now wrote some articles on them.

Say why do you think Musk is launching thousands of Satellites? We have a perfectly good and fast communication grid. Those new ones are for something else.
If you commit a crime or violate your travel permits of whatever you risk immediate fines (we have those – for sitting on a park bench, and they cannot be contested – and loss of your UBI, your health benefits, etc. All will be tracked via your new electronic ID.

-Small police DRONES are reported all over the world, this is common knowledge now.
With cash being phased out fencing stolen goods is pointless

– C’mon we know that every tech company is in on this, the electronic cage is vast; they have more data then god.

– I’ve heard but cannot verify that electronic sensors are being installed in all national parks and wooded areas. Sounds crazy right? It’s not – in the case of UN’s stated biodiversity requirements to protect and ban humans from up to 50% of the earth’s land. Again, ask yourself why Musk on behalf of whom just launched a massive overhead statallite survellience system.
Also ask why we are currently banned from all Crown land and national, provincial parks. Go ahead, ask. You cannot.

All of the above sounds impossible…yes it is not possible under the Old System. But the new system is about electronic control, the A.I. running the show. Ask your MP or MPP what’s going on, see if you get any sensible answer. The world will remain shut down until all this new technology is rolled out. Social Distancing is a prison tactic, not a health tactic.

I see some older people here lamenting the old days when only sick people were quanrantined under lockdown. Yes that old system was quaint. It’s gone now. Denial is a wonderful coping mechanism.

#225 what the on 04.27.20 at 9:08 am

#29 Ace

What I want to know is who in the world though “bungol” was a good name for a website?

An Aussie with a sense of humour I suppose.

#226 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 9:14 am

Calling for a recovery and a return to our former glory are two very different things. Sure we can recover but can Canada ever return to the G7 nation it was.

I don’t think so. Of the thousands of businesses that will permanently close, there are probably thousands who are in a little better shape but will say the heck with it and wrap it up anyway. Who is going to buy such a business when our weak leaders can shut you down on a hunch or bad advice from one of our ivory tower eggheads. I wouldn’t chance it.

Some are going to take that govt money and default or leave the country and let the CRA chase them. Others are preparing to shelter in place for the rest of their life and try to eake out a living where they can, probably in the black market.

People with still viable investments and businesses are moving to protect them from greedy Trudeau. The 1% are offshoring as we speak. Accountants are the busiest group in the country. Busier than doctors.

#227 lockdown forever? on 04.27.20 at 9:14 am

So New Zealand has apparently gone on some super strict lockdown and has so far not had many cases or deaths from Covid.

My question is, how long do they plan to do that for, and do they plan to shut the entire country down, as in, not let a single person in or out for the next 2 years?

If that isn’t the plan, then they are just delaying the inevitable, at a massive cost to their economy (not to mention mental health of the population).

Their leader is being heralded now.

Just wait. In 2 years she will be reviled.

#228 Figure it Out on 04.27.20 at 9:16 am

“You are just proving my point.”

You claimed that the government refuses to release the information. I showed you a daily government release of the numbers. That’s NOT proving your point. Other blog dogs dug up the same stats for other provinces. Also NOT proving your point.

Now you pivot and say the TV newsman isn’t doing a good enough job of presenting the numbers. So what? Low information TV watchers can’t handle complex things. Here’s what the TV watchers do:
https://www.foxnews.com/us/states-spike-poison-control-calls

I don’t want a nuanced case presented to the TV watchers. A loop of somebody shouting “STAY THE HELL HOME” on all channels 24/7 would be fine by me. These people can’t handle nuance.

I’m all for opening the economy as soon as safely possible. But I’m surrounded by a society of maroons who can’t tell the difference between a virologist and a radiologist, between an MD and a chiropractor, or between “sarcasm” and serious medical advice. Every last one of them thinks that their opinion is just as valid as anyone else’s.

The mayor of Wasaga Beach is petitioning the premier of Ontario to have seniors’ lawn maintenance declared an essential service. I rest my case.

#229 Dharma Bum on 04.27.20 at 9:20 am

It’s the politically correct spin and the unbalanced views of SJWs everywhere that have our politicians pandering to them, that has caused this problem to exacerbate.

These misguided commercial and retail business shutdowns are just making everything way worse.

In the long run, the economy is more important than anything. The economy is our life blood. Without it, death for all is guaranteed.

It’s time to OPEN UP, Buttercup!

Damn the torpedoes. Full speed ahead!

It’s the only option that will save us.

#230 NoName on 04.27.20 at 9:25 am

@ stanly

Can you plz tell tell me how retirees are left out did they lost a job or something, i can see some working part time and losing a job but they would be eligible for emergency relief.

Just for comparison in one of those ex Yu republics 65 or older they are allowed to do shopping on only friday between 4 and 7 am.

#231 YouKnowWho on 04.27.20 at 9:29 am

Touch….I remember touch.

Lack of it is being felt, ain’t it Chinese Virus prisoners?

It was always my favourite song off Random Access Memories. Enjoy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Gkhol2Q1og

#232 MF on 04.27.20 at 9:30 am

#216 Neo on 04.27.20 at 6:43 am

Actually there is a lot. If you listen to the news conferences, she gets asked all kinds of questions about why policies are being instituted.

The general take is this is a novel virus and we are learning about it as time goes on. Policies have to be flexible. People seem to think this is a virus we are familiar with, we aren’t.

Where should her info be televised to you? Zerohedge? Infowars?

MF

#233 Keen Reader on 04.27.20 at 9:32 am

@175 Trojan House on 04.26.20 at 9:04 pm

Knew that, what’s your point? Mine was to counter “#10 Do we have all the facts” about his doubting death rates – stats do exist that clearly show significant jumps thru the crisis. Obviously, using NYC as an example confused many here, unfortunately. Similar stats exist in the UK (yup, we aren’t the UK) and elsewhere. I could also give the anecdotal example of my BIL, who works for a funeral home and currently sees 5X the usual number of deaths, compared to the last several years.

My rebuttal was simply to state the facts. I am no doomer and repeatedly stated that current lockdown measures aren’t targeting the vulnerable folks, while overly protecting the low-risk crowd, at huge cost to the economy.

#234 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.20 at 9:36 am

@#226 Turnernation

“All of the above sounds impossible…yes it is not possible under the Old System. But the new system is about electronic control, the A.I. running the show….”

+++++

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37OWL7AzvHo

#235 NoName on 04.27.20 at 9:36 am

#222 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.20 at 8:31 am
Will WWIII start over a really cheesy song?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-philippines-china/blow-for-chinas-virus-diplomacy-as-friendship-song-leaves-filipinos-furious-idUSKCN229131

Only China’s patrol boats know for sure.

Now that you mention philippines, grandma aksed for some money, but payday loan store is closed… ok i could pay 5x and send it over internet, but they cant akcesit because of lockdown. i think that 10-15% of their gdp are remitances.

#236 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 9:38 am

Think about this for a minute. Boris Johnson gets the covid, isolates for a week, then to the ICU for a week, the recovered and released and now back to work. 21 days infected, to deaths door and back on the job for the UK. He is the epitome of stay calm and carry on and will now lead the British out of their lock down.

Our PM on the other hand, never got sick, has refused to reopen the HoC and has been in self isolation in his cottage for 40+ days except for his breathy sermons at 11:15 followed by questions from the toddler media.

#237 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.20 at 9:44 am

@#229 Lockdown forever?
“Just wait. In 2 years she will be reviled.”
+++

Give it 2 more months.

#238 James on 04.27.20 at 9:48 am

#222 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.27.20 at 8:31 am

Will WWIII start over a really cheesy song?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-philippines-china/blow-for-chinas-virus-diplomacy-as-friendship-song-leaves-filipinos-furious-idUSKCN229131

Only China’s patrol boats know for sure.
________________________________________
There is one fact only about China! You cannot trust them, full stop.
Their fundamental ideologies are always well disguised in smiles and casual assistance to whomever they need to bury into in order to achieve their goals. Duterte is a populist leader who has aligned himself and the Philippines with China. Unfortunately it could be the undoing of Philippine independence with China’s meddling as the Philippines is increasingly becoming more indebted and reliant on China. He is a brutal and lethal leader however compared to the Chinese leadership he is a merely a puppet and a means to an end. Trojan Horses come in many shapes.

#239 YVR Expat on 04.27.20 at 9:50 am

COVID19 is statistically similar to the flu?

Why did we kill the economy for this?

Something isn’t adding up.

#240 Neil Ferguson - The Charlatan Modeler on 04.27.20 at 9:56 am

Professor Ferguson is still the European reference for epidemic modelling.
– Yet it was he who, in 2001, convinced Prime Minister Tony Blair to have 6 million cattle slaughtered to stop the foot-and-mouth epidemic (a decision that cost 10 billion pounds and is now considered an aberration).
– In 2002, he calculated that mad cow disease would kill about 50,000 British people and another 150,000 when transmitted to sheep. There were actually 177.
– In 2005, he predicted that bird flu would kill 65,000 Britons. There were a total of 457.

Regardless, he became an adviser to the World Bank and many governments. It was he who sent a confidential note to French President Emmanuel Macron on March 12 announcing half a million deaths in France. In panic, the latter took the decision for generalized confinement that same evening. It was also Professor Ferguson who publicly announced on March 16 that, if nothing was done, there would be as many as 550,000 deaths in the United Kingdom and as many as 1.2 million in the United States, forcing the British government to review its policy.

Simon Cauchemez, who was his right-hand man in 2009, now heads the modelling unit at the Pasteur Institute. He is, of course, a member of the Scientific Committee of the Élysée, where he proposed generalized confinement. This committee was set up by the Director General of Health, Professor Jérôme Salomon, the spiritual son and former technical advisor to Bernard Kouchner.

The Ferguson team’s seizure of power was based on an intellectual swindle. Mathematical biology” (sic) could justify the liberal management of health services.

Unfortunately, while statistics can be used to evaluate the effects of this or that measure after the fact, they cannot predict the behaviour of a living organism, a virus. A virus seeks to spread, not to kill, which it unintentionally does when the species in which it nests does not yet have appropriate antibodies. No virus will eliminate any species, including humans, because if it killed them all, it would disappear with them.

Incidentally, extrapolating influenza measures to the Covid-19 epidemic is absurd: influenza affects many children, not Covid-19, which in demographic terms only kills elderly people or people with diabetes or high blood pressure. Children infected with Covid-19 have a very low viral load, it is not even known to this day whether they are contagious.

Professor Ferguson admitted on March 22 that he had carried out his calculations on the Covid-19 epidemic exclusively with a 13-year-old database of influenza epidemics.

In fact, one cannot help but notice the drift of this guru, who is no longer content to justify liberal policies applied to public health, but has come to advocate depriving entire peoples of their freedom.

#241 Penny Henny on 04.27.20 at 9:57 am

#212 Ustabe on 04.27.20 at 3:07 am
Welp, I’ve been trying to leave this crap show alone but some of you need to look at the charts contained within this FT.com article. (Financial Times)

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

Won’t click? Well, it tells us that this Covid stuff is definitely not the flu.

Recall China…85,000 deaths reported but way over 20 million cell phone accounts dropped. But I’m sure that is normal, to lose so many accounts right at their biggest holiday period.
////////////////

Cell phones can also be used as tracking devices by the govt. Though they do have facial recognition cameras everywhere in China anyways.

#242 George Orwell on 04.27.20 at 9:58 am

#226 TurnerNation on 04.27.20 at 9:05 am

I can’t believe Captain Garth lets you post your tin foil hat crap. Get out of the basement, get back on your meds, stop watching YouTube and breathe in some fresh air. Or is that being controlled by the big bad government as well? You imagination is running amok. Better yet, head for the hills of Northern Ontario or some other province, build yourself a cabin and spend the rest of your days off the grid while the rest of us continue on our merry way. You will be happier for it. No YouTube, no keyboard, just you and mother nature in Canada’s great wilderness. Thoreau would be proud of you. Now get packing and don’t let the door hit you on your butt on the way out…

#243 Stan Brooks on 04.27.20 at 9:59 am

#232 NoName on 04.27.20 at 9:25 am
@ stanly

Can you plz tell tell me how retirees are left out did they lost a job or something, i can see some working part time and losing a job but they would be eligible for emergency relief.

Just for comparison in one of those ex Yu republics 65 or older they are allowed to do shopping on only friday between 4 and 7 am.

Unemployed who lost their job due to the crisis should have:

1. EI
2. Savings in order to survive for at least 6-12 months.
It is not government’s or society’s fault that they failed in the above and CHOOSE to live paycheck to paycheck and deeply in debt during the ‘good times’.

With the handouts the yearly federal deficit alone approaches 200 billions. That is a lot of money and will create higher than ‘normal’ inflation in long run.

Retires will get nothing from the handouts, their ‘inflation’ indexing is much bellow the real inflation of necessities anyway and now with the addition inflation their situation will become much worse.

Plus their golden ‘retirement’ egg comprised of bricks and mortar is about to disappear among the smoke and mirrors of the biggest meltdown of credit generated ‘wealth’ the world has ever seen.

You basically will get close to nothing from your CPP and OAS/’inflation indexed’ pension in terms of real value.

Cheers,

#244 BillyBob on 04.27.20 at 9:59 am

#158 not 1st on 04.26.20 at 7:32 pm
MF, Canadas currency is not tied to the US currency. Its tied to oil, interest rates, debt and our credit rating.

So guess where it is heading.

And when the US does boom, I am willing to bet dollars to donuts we don’t participate this time.

===============================================

Exactly. MF is as usual, using wishful thinking instead of logic.

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-the-great-canadian-debt-surge-has-come-home-to-roost

I am no fan of Rosenberg, but I it’s difficult to fault his analysis here.

Just a snippet here, but read the whole article to see the comparisons to other nations and their credit ratings and some associated history.

QUOTE:
“It will be interesting to see how a central bank that does not govern over the world’s reserve currency and a country with a massive balance-of-payments deficit will be able to have all of this largesse find its way onto the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet — and the rampant money supply growth this will engender — without jeopardizing global investor confidence in the relative value of the Canadian dollar, which I believe will not end up bottoming until it hits 60 cents U.S.

As bold as that sounds, it may end up proving to be a conservative forecast. Canada’s 350-per-cent total debt-to-GDP ratio compares to 330 per cent in the United States, which has the most powerful army in the world and the world’s reserve currency, which means the Federal Reserve has the largest printing press of all and it gets its ink for free.”

#245 Stan Brook's Psychiatrist on 04.27.20 at 10:04 am

#221 Stan Brooks on 04.27.20 at 8:17 am

How’s the farm life working out Stanley? Have you planted your vegetable garden yet? Are you willing to host a blog dog party at your place? Details to be forthcoming Stanley on how your off the grid lifestyle is working out…

#246 Pension expert on 04.27.20 at 10:07 am

#199 Lee

Don’t be outrageous–a good 1/3 of highly paid Government administrators will be shown the door.This Pandemic has strengthened the fact ,they just aren’t needed,whether they are working from home or not.

#247 BrianT on 04.27.20 at 10:27 am

#210Goober-you forgot to mention that the vast majority of those over 60 deceased were stuck in long term care facilities-the average 60 year old has very little statistically to fear from this virus.

#248 Sail Away on 04.27.20 at 10:31 am

#238 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 9:38 am

Think about this for a minute. Boris Johnson gets the covid, isolates for a week, then to the ICU for a week, the recovered and released and now back to work. 21 days infected, to deaths door and back on the job for the UK. He is the epitome of stay calm and carry on and will now lead the British out of their lock down.

——————–

From this, one could deduce the corvid is not very dangerous.

Boris went to the ICU as a precautionary measure since he holds some sort of senior government position. ‘Death’s door’ might be a bit dramatic.

#249 MF on 04.27.20 at 10:34 am

246 BillyBob on 04.27.20 at 9:59 am

Exactly as usual for BillyBob:

Unable to concoct a simple statement without resorting to petty little personal remarks. Or deflecting? What does reserve currencies and militaries have to do with my point?

Looks like someone didn’t make the debate team in high school.

Anyways, Rosenberg is actually correct. Debt is a problem. My point was we won’t experience catastrophe as long as the US is booming down south. Many people are calling for a catastrophe…50 cent looney, massive inflation, huge unemployment. Won’t happen with the US booming. Pain yes? Real estate done? I believe so. But not the end of the world.

MF

#250 Boomer Bill on 04.27.20 at 10:36 am

#245 Stan Brooks on 04.27.20 at 9:59 am

“Plus their golden ‘retirement’ egg comprised of bricks and mortar is about to disappear among the smoke and mirrors of the biggest meltdown of credit generated ‘wealth’ the world has ever seen.”
———————————————————

Poor Stan. A loser boomer like you who missed the housing boom, is truly laughable. It must be hard waking up in the morning and being you. You make a negative Nellie look like an incorrigible optimist. If you had been like the rest of us boomers who sold their primary residences and harvested over a million in capital gain free money and are now sitting pretty with balanced portfolios as prescribed by Captain Garth and lovely homes outside the GTA, you wouldn’t be on this blog bleating away like the pathetic old broke boomer that you are. To repeat, it must really suck to be you…

#251 NoName on 04.27.20 at 10:42 am

#245 Stan Brooks on 04.27.20 at 9:59 am

Retires will get nothing from the handouts, their ‘inflation’ indexing is much bellow the real inflation of necessities anyway and now with the addition inflation their situation will become much worse.

There is planty of fin aid for old people, how about their kids, can they help them out? Years ago wifi made me shovel dryway for old people around, sometime their kids would come to bring them stuff and i would be shoveling and no hi or buy, that is a truth, happend more than once this winter alone. Luckily for me i have an ergonomic snow showel…

Plus their golden ‘retirement’ egg comprised of bricks and mortar is about to disappear among the smoke and mirrors of the biggest meltdown of credit generated ‘wealth’ the world has ever seen.

So what do you want gov to do to back stop re for old people? And how exactly all those retired peole are “using their” re to live off?
If reverse mortgage on their principal residence is mandated uppon retirement to live of you could make that argument, but it isnt not tha case, they are takink LOC to give down paymets to kids to buy more re…

#252 Stan Brooks on 04.27.20 at 10:57 am

#247 Stan Brook’s Psychiatrist on 04.27.20 at 10:04 am

I did not say off the grid, I said self-sustainability.

Cheers,

#253 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 11:05 am

Trump had a guy from NASA come in with a covid room fogger they use to disinfect the ISS. 1 hr fog disinfects an entire room. Restaurants and public indoor spaces are going to have to adapt those sorts of technologies if they want to open again. More private booths, break up the large spaces into individual sections.

In short, the days of stuffing everybody into cattle cars is over.

https://www.newsweek.com/nasa-scientists-have-developed-room-sterilization-machine-new-ventilator-fight-coronavirus-1500175

#254 Figure it Out on 04.27.20 at 11:06 am

#242 The Charlatan is a pretty good example of what I was talking about in #230.

One person writes up a bunch of wrong stuff (stupidity or malice? Who knows… or maybe WHO knows), and other low-IQ copypasta monkeys repost it all over.

“No virus will eliminate any species, including humans, because if it killed them all, it would disappear with them.”

This isn’t even valid logic for a virus confined to a single species. And our threshold isn’t “well, it won’t wipe us ALL out” at any rate. Just stupid. And that bit about statistics not being able to predict the behaviour of life? The entire life insurance industry begs to differ, as does much of modern agriculture.

Whoever posted #230 doesn’t exhibit the higher order brains required to discern good arguments from bad, but is capable of widely reproducing bad arguments given an appropriate internet environment. A viral super spreader, if you will. Probably doesn’t wash its hands, either. And wants to bump into you in aisle six at the store ASAP.

#255 the Jaguar on 04.27.20 at 11:08 am

I’ve been posting too much, but just this last one before I go away. Interesting article for those who like to follow the oil business………..

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4336930-shale-oils-final-theft-from-shareholders

#256 Headhunter on 04.27.20 at 11:34 am

boomer bill
Poor Stan. A loser boomer like you who missed the housing boom, is truly laughable.

……………………………..

name calling is weak, when you point a finger there is 3 pointing back at you BB ur just a bully and I know how to handle your type… keep the bragging goin kind sir.. life has funny quirky twists and turns…

#257 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 11:34 am

#251 MF on 04.27.20 at 10:34 am

MF just curious how old are you? In the early 90s Canada was declared an honorary member of the 3rd world. Our debt was downgraded, the loonie was 64c and the IMF was one step away from coming in here. That’s when our debt was half what it is now with a much younger population and our main industries still putting churning out. If it wasn’t for Paul Martin we would have been Venezuela 25 yrs ago.

Now that same situation is going to be revisited upon us. But this time, the fed debt is twice as much, so is the provincial debt and we have trillions in mortgages, helocs and consumer debt. Our population is aging, costs to carry pension commitments rising.

Just two questions. What is the domestic industry that will lead us out of this and secondly what programs will need to be cut or taxes applied to halt the dollar and the debt downgrade?

The US will be on a tear to insulate their economy within their own border so I wouldn’t count on that boom spilling across the border.

#258 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 11:36 am

Whats coming for all urban dense cities. Those 80 condo towers on TO wont be needed.

Homebuilders suddenly see sales jump as renters flee small urban apartments

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/coronavirus-homebuilders-see-sales-jump-as-renters-flee-urban-apartments.html

#259 Incubus on 04.27.20 at 11:37 am

Did government over-react? YES
Was the media irresponsible in its pandemic panic? YES
Was public opinion manipulated? YES.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/25/sweden-succeeds-lockdownswill-have-nothing/

#260 Lee on 04.27.20 at 11:41 am

#248 Pension Expert,

I think Harper was barely able to pare down the federal civil service by about 36,000 people in the GFC. Don’t expect JT to let anyone go as he primes for an early call. Ford will likely hold the fort too for at least until after the next election. Remember, they are politicians first. Huge deficits and higher taxes have now been baked into our heads. No need to cut spending. They will get nothing for it in return as politicians.

#261 BLTandfries on 04.27.20 at 11:44 am

“This is not the worst we have faced as a nation.”

The problem is that we are not a “nation” anymore the way we were during the World Wars.

#262 Figure it Out on 04.27.20 at 11:47 am

“Trump had a guy from NASA come in with a covid room fogger “

Jim Bridenstine was appointed NASA administrator by Trump – the first ever without a technical background. “The choice was quickly criticized by both Republican and Democratic politicians, saying that NASA should be headed by a “space professional”, not a politician or a Trump ally.” Confirmed by the senate on a straight party line vote. Doesn’t even hold a BSc, but he was executive director of the Tulsa Air and Space Museum, so there’s that.

Not to say that the fogger won’t work, it might! Or maybe the fog here is being provided by Bridenstein and Trump. “The BEST people,” Trump said.

#263 Goober on 04.27.20 at 11:52 am

#249 BrianT on 04.27.20 at 10:27 am
Thanks for pointing that out, but since the MB an SK governments haven’t been revealing much (if any) geographical info regarding infections in their provinces, we’re not exactly sure the context of where these deaths occurred. However, as best as I know, neither province has had any reports of serious outbreaks in long term care facilities. I guess we’ve been lucky on this so far.

You’re right that the average 60 year old has very little statistically to fear from this virus, as it appears, do most other younger age groups.

#264 Ryan movees the market on 04.27.20 at 11:54 am

So REITs take a big jump !!…. Turner Investments = market maker! so how many people read this blog!

#265 jess on 04.27.20 at 11:58 am

illiterates : rather than bleach one might just use nose plugs +swim googles since the virus enters those doors ;)

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6489/356
INTRODUCTION
The genetically diverse coronavirus (CoV) family, currently composed of
four genogroups [1 (alpha), 2 (beta), 3 (gamma), and 4 (delta)], infects birds and a variety of mammals. Thus far, only CoV groups 1 and 2 are known to infect humans.

#266 Trojan House on 04.27.20 at 12:00 pm

#212 Ustabe on 04.27.20 at 3:07 am

I heard that too, but this time I think that is total conspiracy theory. You do realize that there are 1.4 billion (with a ‘b’) people in China? I don’t think it would be out of the ordinary for 20 million to cancel or even open a cell phone account in any given period.

#242 Neil Ferguson – The Charlatan Modeler on 04.27.20 at 9:56 am

The latest stats out of the UK indeed show that the majority of those who required hospitalization were obese, and therefore, as we all know, a lot of the time that includes having medical conditions including diabetes and high blood pressure. The stat was 74% of people who were hospitalized fell in this category while another 22% were over the age of 60.

#267 Stan Brooks on 04.27.20 at 12:05 pm

#253 NoName on 04.27.20 at 10:42 am

I don’t disagree entirely with what you say but there is no excuse for the petty pensions people get in terms of real value for their not-so-insignificant-contributions.

The worse pension system in the developed world, pretty much. Plus indexed with an inflation index that has nothing to do with reality. In the old days they called it theft but I guess we are too sophisticated now for that.

Cheers,

#268 James on 04.27.20 at 12:34 pm

#260 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 11:36 am

Whats coming for all urban dense cities. Those 80 condo towers on TO wont be needed.

Homebuilders suddenly see sales jump as renters flee small urban apartments

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/coronavirus-homebuilders-see-sales-jump-as-renters-flee-urban-apartments.html
____________________________________________
I give it two-three years and condos will have depreciated to really what they are worth which is about 25% of current value. Then scoop some up for rental units. Current value of condos in TO & GTA is astronomical compare to their actual intrinsic value.

#269 Lorne on 04.27.20 at 12:36 pm

#163 Figure it Out on 04.26.20 at 7:41 pm
“Whenever Trudeau speaks, it is like the proverbial fingernails on the chalk board. I become nauseated.”
…….
Funny, exactly the way I feel when I hear Scheer speak!

#270 Do we have all the facts on 04.27.20 at 12:36 pm

Note to our Prime minister

Isn’t it time to invite a number of actuaries to Ottawa to offer their perspective on the Covid 19 virus. No group of professionals is better equipped to advise our government on the actual risk that the Covid 19 virus poses based on an examination of historical and current data (facts).

We know that Canadians with compromised immune systems are at risk when the Covid 19 virus enters their body. We also know that Canadians with healthy immune systems have only a minimum risk of death when the Covid 19 virus enters their system.

As I see it our government is asking healthy Canadians to pay extremely high premiums to protect the health of Canadians with compromised immune systems. I am pretty sure that an actuary might question the logic of this strategy if it was applied every disease that presents a risk to the general population Eg. Cancer or Heart disease.

#271 BrianT on 04.27.20 at 12:40 pm

I have noticed that the MSM is working overtime to cover up huge statistical differences in death rates-example-India death rate is .6 compared to 627 for Belgium-India basically has almost nobody dying from this thing and it isn’t because of their great handling-it is because it is too HOT there-another stat-Toronto death rate from this virus is 10.3 times the Oakville death rate-that is a huge disparity-I guess densification doesn’t work so well with a Plandemic.

#272 Lambchop on 04.27.20 at 12:49 pm

Just a point of interest regarding SpaceX’s starlink satellites. Intentions may not be as benevolent as “internet for everyone”

“Just last week, Air Force acquisition chief William Roper told reporters at the Pentagon that the Air Force and SpaceX will conduct an event on April 8, together with other branches of the U.S. military, that will see SpaceX Starlink satellites link up with multiple armed forces systems in a “massive” live fire exercise.”

“Air Force Magazine quoted Roper as saying he wanted a “50-50 split between success and failure” in this latest test, enabling developers to better work the kinks out of the new satellite-based system. During a less extensive test of the system last month, Starlink satellites connected with an AC-130 gunship. ”

It’s easy to call TurnerNation a tinfoilhatter, but sometimes there may be some nuggets in there that demand further investigation, whether they turn out to be true or not.
Lots of things are unfathomable, until they’re not.

#273 Lambchop on 04.27.20 at 12:51 pm

Linky

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32346/the-air-force-and-spacex-are-teaming-up-for-a-massive-live-fire-exercise

#274 Deplorable Dude on 04.27.20 at 1:15 pm

#264 Figure it out.

Jim Bridenstine is the best NASA Administrator since James Webb. Pretty much universally liked in the Space Community and Space Flight media, which I follow as a space enthusiast.

Oh by the way he was in the Army and Navy, and flew combat missions in Iraq.

So there’s that.

#275 jess on 04.27.20 at 1:16 pm

63 BLTandfries on 04.27.20 at 11:44 am
and poverty rates are higher but no one freaks over those:some humans have to decide starvation or virus
share insulin or pay rent … etc banting and best
https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/the-discovery-of-insulin

middle man cut
Millions of People Face Stimulus Check Delays for a Strange Reason: They Are Poor

The IRS has had trouble getting money to people quickly because millions of Americans pay for their tax preparation through a baroque system of middlemen.
Coronavirus Put Her Out of Work, Then Debt Collectors Froze Her Savings Account

out of network fees-

blackstone and kkr
Private equity-backed medical staffing companies that have cut doctors’ pay are continuing to spend millions on political ads, according to Federal Communications Commission disclosures.

Medical Staffing Companies Cut Doctors’ Pay While Spending Millions on Political Ads
https://www.propublica.org/
============
Anthropocene defines Earth’s most recent geologic time period as being human-influenced

#276 Sail away on 04.27.20 at 1:22 pm

#273 Lambchop on 04.27.20 at 12:49 pm

Just a point of interest regarding SpaceX’s starlink satellites. Intentions may not be as benevolent as “internet for everyone”

—————

Haha… you think?

Another 60 satellites were just launched recently, and TSLA is up another 8% today.

I wouldn’t advise betting against SpaceX, TSLA or Elon in any way. My TSLA was earlier up to a 10-bagger, dropped during the downturn and has now regained to all Covid losses.

Cue the haters. Success irritates a lot of people.

#277 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 1:25 pm

Now the eggheads have started fighting amongst themselves.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/flat-out-incorrect-anti-lockdown-rant-from-associate-biology-professor-draws-ire-of-sask-scientists/ar-BB13fzFi?ocid=spartanntp

#278 Sail away on 04.27.20 at 1:31 pm

#273 Lambchop on 04.27.20 at 12:49 pm

It’s easy to call TurnerNation a tinfoilhatter, but sometimes there may be some nuggets in there that demand further investigation, whether they turn out to be true or not.

Lots of things are unfathomable, until they’re not.

—————

Oh, have no doubt: TurnerNation is totally off his nut.

But of course a government will use a space-based communication system for the military; there should never be any question about that. And… with the military using this infrastructure, SpaceX is backstopped by the US government. No chance of failure. Similar to private prisons with govvie contracts. Think GEO.

#279 TurnerNation on 04.27.20 at 1:35 pm

#244 George Orwell haha Why did you choose that user name. Because you know. Drones are already yelling at people in Europe. Some countries are banning ‘fake news’ aka opinions with penalty.
I’ll be here…living in the UN Open Air tax slave farm.

As I said…in public people must talk from 6 feet apart. Whispers or private convos are not possible. We have ‘smart’ phones now.

Hey ask your elected officials when the courts and Crown lands will re-open. Lets us know. Don’t let me stop you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thoughtcrime

“Any sound that Winston made, above the level of a very low whisper, would be picked up by the telescreen; moreover, so long as he remained within the field of vision which the metal plaque commanded, he could be seen as well as heard. There was, of course, no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment. “

#280 TurnerNation on 04.27.20 at 1:41 pm

#273 Lambchop I’d actually not seen that article nor done any research. I know just how our elite rulers think.
Musk is only a front man I caught on a few years ago. For whom? Dunno but it will not be good.
These big tech companies already rule the world. People haven’t yet realised this.

#281 Mark Moretti on 04.27.20 at 1:45 pm

#277-Sail Away

Your profits come for corporate welfare. Elon is the worst of the worst, a Carnival Barker and Welfare Queen. Congratulations!

#282 Don Guillermo on 04.27.20 at 1:46 pm

#270 Lorne on 04.27.20 at 12:36 pm
#163 Figure it Out on 04.26.20 at 7:41 pm
“Whenever Trudeau speaks, it is like the proverbial fingernails on the chalk board. I become nauseated.”
…….
Funny, exactly the way I feel when I hear Scheer speak!
**************************************
Fortunately for you your state run media ensures you can endlessly listen to Junior 2.

#283 ts on 04.27.20 at 1:48 pm

#226 TurnerNation on 04.27.20 at 9:05 am

As scary as your post may be, I really think you are on to something. You make some excellent points, especially the one about the satellite surveillance system. Don’t let the naysayers deter you. Some people are simply in denial and are hopeful that everything will be back to “normal”.

#284 Wrk.dover on 04.27.20 at 1:54 pm

#238 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 9:38 am

breathy sermons

———————–

Oh Man! You nailed it!!!!!

#285 NoName on 04.27.20 at 1:54 pm

#268 Stan Brooks on 04.27.20 at 12:05 pm
#253 NoName on 04.27.20 at 10:42 am

I don’t disagree entirely with what you say but there is no excuse for the petty pensions people get in terms of real value for their not-so-insignificant-contributions.

The worse pension system in the developed world, pretty much. Plus indexed with an inflation index that has nothing to do with reality. In the old days they called it theft but I guess we are too sophisticated now for that.

Cheers,

No to be taken out of context, i like old people they did contributed imensly to what we have, but number are numbers. Im deplorable i dispize hipsters.

ya it is teft but from young ones, and they dont even know it.

In dollar terms contributions are relativly small per contributor. If you started workg in 1976 and you put in 40 yrs asuming that you max out cpp every year total cpp contribution would add up to around ONLY 95K, iven at if you add 6.5% (average return for tsx since 1988) it only adds up to 178k per maxed out contributor. What is saving them is all people that depart shortly after they retire, and more and more people are contributing in fund at bigger yearly contributions.

I may have got all this wrong but here its how i come to this conclusion.

And on a side note someone 1/2 of their age working last 20yrs maxing out cpp, almost contribute in cpp as boomer who contributed max for 40yrs…

To be on a safe side i didnt factor in cpi and purchasing power.

https://imgur.com/a/ybdZetT

#286 FYI on 04.27.20 at 1:59 pm

Apparently trumps looking into this.

– An aide to an influential king in Ivory Coast has said the monarch could order a procession of naked women to ward off coronavirus, AFP reports.

Amon N’Douffou V, the king of Sanwi, in the southeast of Ivory Coast, held a special exorcism ceremony last week seeking divine intervention to protect his 3 million subjects against the epidemic.

#287 Figure it Out on 04.27.20 at 2:06 pm

#275 Deplorable Dude — “Jim Bridenstine is the best NASA Administrator since James Webb. Pretty much universally liked in the Space Community and Space Flight media, which I follow as a space enthusiast.”

I’m glad to hear it. It’s nice to know that some of Trump’s hires work out. I hope you can see it from my point of view – Trump’s had some guy who sells pillows on TV at one of his recent press conferences, then he bragged about teleconferencing with the WWE’s Jim McMahon, so when I saw the post about NASA guy, I looked him up and found… sure enough, what I posted above.

Again, glad he’s working out.

#288 Marc Perreault on 04.27.20 at 2:23 pm

Unemployment only at 15%? I seriously thought it would be in the 25% range!

#289 Sail away on 04.27.20 at 2:43 pm

#282 Mark Moretti on 04.27.20 at 1:45 pm
#277-Sail Away

Your profits come for corporate welfare. Elon is the worst of the worst, a Carnival Barker and Welfare Queen. Congratulations!

————-

Thanks! I’m very happy.

#290 MF on 04.27.20 at 3:17 pm

259 not 1st on 04.27.20 at 11:34 am

I’m nearing 40, so getting up there.

What you talk about is all true, and worriesome.

Except this time around the whole world is in a similar position. This is not 1993. Demographics have changed everywhere, along with fiscal situations.

If we simply use debt as a metric than we aren’t as bad as a country compared to most others. This is not including over indebted individuals, of course. I’m talking government. Yeah yeah you have to add provinces and municipalities but the whole world is equally in trouble so the IMF will be very busy.

Resources? Policies? At the end of the day, regardless of who is in power, this country will still have its raw materials to fall back on. I don’t believe oil is being targeted like you always post about. I think the issues effecting oil prices are most international and not domestic, although the pipelines need to be built as soon as possible. Oil only has one way to go and that’s up. There’s also tech, finance, and other raw materials. We also have an educated population that is being messed over by house prices. They have to come down. The one positive out of this pandemic will be less reliance on real estate, less investment in it, and more in other more protective areas. Plus a return of some manufacturing (pharma and ppe as examples).

MF

#291 alf on 04.27.20 at 5:46 pm

#256 Figure it Out on 04.27.20 at 11:06 am

Damn! If that’s the comment produced by a high IQ brain I’d much rather remain ignorant.