No good choice

The terrified, the prudent, the father-knows-best crowd want the economy to stay shut. Polls show most Canadians, scared and pliant, agree. But a vocal minority cry the vulnerable should be protected, the health care system bolstered and adults allowed to assess their own levels of risk. In other words, turn the thing back on.

Both views have been expressed here. The debate will intensify. Meanwhile it’s becoming clear just how pooched our population is.

We know six million people applied for government emergency income support – about a third of the entire workforce, unable to survive a single month without pay. And we know that as of two days ago, Ottawa had already shipped $20 billion out the door. Never happened before.

But evidence is emerging a huge number of homeowners are unable to carry their properties, living paycheque-to-paycheque, and now just kicking their debt Waterloo down the road. If the virus hangs around for, oh, six months, real estate is in serious trouble. Obviously a lot of people own properties they could not actually afford.

Check this out:

  • Over half (54%) of homeowners have asked their lenders for mortgage assistance, like payment deferral, according to a Forum Research poll. Says mortgage broker/blogger Rob McLister in response: “Given 60% of homeowners have mortgages, that’s the majority of people with mortgages. It’s hard to wrap one’s head around that high of a number given most people have jobs and fallback resources…But suffice it to say, a lot of people feel they’re in need of mortgage help.”
  • Six per cent of people have already missed a mortgage payment, while 14% of renters couldn’t pay their landlords. (Over half of all renters asked for relief.)
  • Somewhere between 600,000 and a million homeowners have requested, and received, six months of payment deferrals. This is costing the banks close to $1 billion in monthly cash flow, and all of that money is being added to the debt that families will have to finance.
  • One bank alone – CIBC – has approved 250,000 deferrals and payments on $20 billion worth of home loans, credit cards and LOCs. The woman in charge of banking operations is frank. She calls it “toxic.”

“We do have a highly indebted Canadian consumer that we’ve been talking about for quite some time, and just under half of Canadians live paycheck to paycheck,” said Laura Dottori-Attanasio. “If you add that people are no longer working and generating cash flow, I do think it makes for a toxic combination that’s going to be much more difficult to overcome the longer this takes to resolve.”

There is little doubt the combination of sudden, virus-inspired unemployment and irresponsible personal debt poses a structural risk to the Canadian economy. Add in oil – this week worth nothing, or close to it – plus the public’s reluctance to allow businesses and workplaces to re-open, and things darken more.

You cannot blame some schmuck with a house, two kids, a mortgage and no pension for losing his job to Covid-19, but you can hold him accountable for having no savings, resources or resistance plus a steamy pile of debt. All those warnings about 50% of people living within two hundred bucks a month of insolvency were apparently correct. When the inevitable shock came, they folded.

Now it’s all about timing. “The length of this crisis,” says the bank exec, “is going to be probably the most important determinant in terms of what things look like in the future.”

All true. And this is why leaders need to make choices. Quick ones.

Complicating it all is oil. What a disaster. Prices were negative Monday and barely positive Tuesday. What cost $50 just a hundred days ago is now changing hands for a few bucks. Cars are garaged and gas demand is down 35%. Air Canada just parked all is US-bound planes for a month. Porter hasn’t been flying for weeks. Factories are shut. The world is using a third less energy thanks to the virus, and there’s no place left to put all the oil.

So what?

This is deflationary. So is the virus. So is the fact hundreds of thousands have stopped making mortgage payments. Or buying houses. Or earning an income. Or spending money in stores. Canada’s GDP will crash 14% in the second quarter, says Capital Economics, compared to a -12% decline in the States. The bounce-back will be impressive when it comes – but with most Canadians wanting the lockdown to continue into autumn, the trauma will probably worsen.

Who survives deflation?

People with money, not debt. Oh boy.

 

283 comments ↓

#1 Andrewski on 04.21.20 at 3:14 pm

Garth, you’ve been posting this message, of having money set aside, for many years & now that we’re just at the start of this s^!t$torm, it’s sad to read the stats on the too many who are completely financially unprepared.

#2 Ed McNeil on 04.21.20 at 3:16 pm

The father-knows-best crowd? Garth, you are dating yourself.

You understood it. – Garth

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 3:17 pm

Hmmmm
Deflationary vultching
“D.V.”
Better than the reverse I suppose.

#4 Roial1 on 04.21.20 at 3:20 pm

Remember not so long ago we where paying 1.50$ and more for a liter of gas. Peak oil and running out of it???
The switch is breath taking.
Oh, and my new dog is slowly coming around. It takes some dogs more time to bond as they get older.
What she does not know is that WE are not going to give up on her. She’s worth it!

#5 Blair on 04.21.20 at 3:20 pm

This all sounds dispiriting. You probably don’t take questions on here, Garth, but I wonder what deflation is.

Prices, wages and asset values fall – the opposite of inflation. Money becomes more valuable. Debt becomes unrepayable. – Garth

#6 Property Accountant on 04.21.20 at 3:21 pm

The virus is not as deadly as officials and WHO thinks it is.
Recent German study and US Santa Clara County, CA study point to that. Although there are some flaws in those studies, the actual death ratio points to somewhere between 0.12% to 0.4% of infected people, making the virus close to influenza stats.
German Study
US Santa Clara County study

#7 How long can this go on on 04.21.20 at 3:21 pm

How long can governments specifically USA and Canada print money without a massive power shift from North America to China or another power? 10 years? 20? 50?

#8 TurnerNation on 04.21.20 at 3:28 pm

Porter airlines: their web site for the past month states Taking Reservations for June 1st.
Seeing as they got federal funds/bailout, they might know.

We have no leaders. At points if someone said we have a shadow government behind the scenes I would not protest. What this weblog writes, is taking place in every country. Shall we call it Global reset/power grab?

#9 TheDood on 04.21.20 at 3:29 pm

A work colleague of mine works part-time at the local Harley dealer as a weekend mechanic, more out of a passion for motorcycles than financial need. There are many customers who bought brand new bikes (the high end expensive ones) on leverage in the last few years who are now desperate to dump them. We’re both weekend riders and licking our chops at some of the deals on tap. It sucks knowing in the back of your mind that you’re taking advantage of a fellow human being’s desperation, but, then again, they’re in that position primarily because of past questionable financial decisions. I like my bike as it is so may end up passing on any deal, then again, one might come up that is too good to let pass………..

#10 Armpit on 04.21.20 at 3:33 pm

I sense a lot of Boomers – who were able to retire but are staying because they enjoy working – will feel the same as the Older Sport Athletes after a lockdown/strike.

They may return – but after seeing how “different” it is — Will Retire.

If they cannot because they were not financially prepared… they will be a sorry bunch.

#11 yvr_lurker on 04.21.20 at 3:35 pm

It is problematic that many do not have savings to last for a few months. However, there will be many that sign up and take the Gov’t offerings when they really don’t need to (human nature).

However, I don’t think the typical family has a contingency plan for both members losing their jobs at the same time, being unable to find another one because their “industry” is shuttered, and then trying to survive on meager pogey for a 6 month or more hiatus. I would not be too hard in blaming the victims here; they should have had more savings, but these are crazy times.

How about putting some of the blame and focus on the actions (or inaction) in China in starting this whole mess. The only comment you have made in this direction is something like “it is a problem when a virus starting overseas can easily affect your grandma in Kelowna”. What will Mr. Market do to ensure that there will not be a repeat of this contagion originating from China in the future?

#12 Attrition on 04.21.20 at 3:35 pm

Who survives deflation?

Hmm.

Deflation: “Deflation is a general decline in prices for goods and services, typically associated with a contraction in the supply of money and credit in the economy. During deflation, the purchasing power of currency rises over time.”

So, goods and services get cheaper. The dollar gets stronger, relatively.

So far so good. Me likey.

Oh, but there’s this: “not everyone wins from lower prices and economists are concerned about the consequences of falling prices on various sectors of the economy, especially in financial matters. Deflation can harm borrowers, who can be bound to pay their debts in money that is worth more than the money they borrowed”

Ouch. That might hurt, but only if not if working. The dollars I’m paid in will also be worth more. Sounds like a wash if you spend less than you earn.

Ah, I see this too: “By definition, monetary deflation can only be caused by a decrease in the supply of money or financial instruments redeemable in money.”

Ok that’s not happening. They’re printing money faster than they can burn it.

So…instead of deflation, or hyperinflation, we might see real inflation closer to the 2% target for once?

I’ve said it before: cheaper oil benefits people. Cheaper houses and cars, too. Cheaper food, if it comes to pass, most definitely.

The only ones who don’t stand to benefit from deflation or truly modest inflation are bankers and CEOs.

And in a low or negative rate environment, governments benefit hugely. The cost of all our national debt is going down down down.

I see no downside.

What am I missing?

#13 calgary rip off on 04.21.20 at 3:37 pm

Why are people overextended? Greed.

Is a want really a need? Why cant a person be happy with what they have right now?

I mostly dont want the travel because it is bs in its ideology. Why cant people just be happy where they are? Besides the reality that every year these idiots travelling everywhere spread around all these weird diseases.

Secondly why are people in such a mental funk being by themselves? How exactly is anyone alone really? The internet is still on and there are still people. I recall distinctly weeks of alone time in rural Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, where I would run long and far and see not a single human for many kilometers. In between runs I would listen to Deep Purple’s “The Shield”, “the Address”, “Hey Joe”. Sounds always had a strange effect in Idaho. But hey the entire state is like Narnia’s the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe by C.S. Lewis. I had enough to keep me occupied with studies, the scenery, my exercise routine and the internet had just begun and I wasnt really using it although Netscape was up at the local computer kiosk. I didnt talk to my parents and other than the local LDS Church ward I didnt talk to anyone other than my professors. I did fine. Eliminating all the superficial BS is a good thing as is most interactions daily.

People should just be who they are rather than wasting time and money on BS in attempting to prove things to others who dont care anyway. When you are dead it isnt like that fancy car or house or whatever is worth anything other than the memories attached.

The bat virus really shows how crappy the majority are with making decisions and priorities. It also shows how some are able to differentiate between what is important and what is irrelevant. Stupid decisions cost time and money and currently the Canadian government is Big Daddy for the overgrown children who could not manage themselves properly mentally, emotionally and fiscally.

Keep up the excellent posts and keep healthy Garth.

#14 Sail away on 04.21.20 at 3:39 pm

#6 Property Accountant on 04.21.20 at 3:21 pm

The virus is not as deadly as officials and WHO thinks it is.

————–

Yawn… old news… it’s been over for some time.

The media will have an extremely tough time relinquishing this raison d’etre, though.

T2 is getting dopamine hits from the irresponsible as he throws money everywhere and will never accept that reasonable people view his fiscal irresponsibility with contempt.

#15 FreeBird on 04.21.20 at 3:40 pm

“Canadians owe $1.76 for every dollar in disposable income. In Vancouver, that spikes to more than C$2.30”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/once-safer-than-gold-canadian-real-estate-meets-its-match

Not going to end well. Hard lesson for many and it will effect all of us in some way.

#16 Risk vs virus on 04.21.20 at 3:42 pm

We need a balance approach to deaths and economy
Let’s find a middle ground, we need to stop this C19 fear.
The current path is dangerous.

Have a good read by Howard Marks
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
Here’s an excerpt

Driving an automobile is risky. In 2018, the number of auto-related fatalities in the United States was 36,560, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Yet we don’t ban automobiles, nor do we impose a 10 mile an hour speed limit. Doing so would eliminate most of those deaths and injuries, but it would also adversely affect economic activity enabled by faster transportation of people and products.

Overall, the benefits of automobiles exceed the costs. Individuals knowingly assume the risks. Businesses compete to make money by reducing those risks. To deal with market failures and externalities, and to provide a certain minimum floor, we have regulatory mechanisms imposed by government to mitigate risks and compensate for losses.

These same approaches can be useful in guiding the public policy response to the coronavirus, showing the way to a middle ground that minimizes harm without excessive costs to either the economy or individual freedom. . .

I thought that was excellent I am willing to take risks

As I have been saying all along BC 5.5 million people
Less than 1,700 cases probably another 25 at 3:00
86 dead. Mostly old people.

3,000 a month die every month in BC
Don’t get me wrong Dr. Henry has done a fantastic job, now let’s get the economy back to work.
And do not say ya what about all those Asymptomatic people. Can anyone provide a Canadian statistic?
Nope because the governments are either hiding the information or don’t have a clue, now ask yourself why!
Focus on 1,600 cases it’s just not adding up.

#17 Camille on 04.21.20 at 3:42 pm

Well written analysis, illustrating lack of clarity which currently exist on reopening the economy, and exiting the lockdown.
The country – and markets – made considerable progress recently, but are now back in a rut. Perhaps leadership will come from the provincial premiers, on a regional basis (same in US – state wide and through some european countries).
It’s definitely negative (market wise) this week. And we see all
the bickering coming on how to open the economy – unions, government, etc.
But the bond portion of a portfolio is doing well, and when stock prices are restored, the value of the average portfolio will be greater than before the crisis.

#18 I Love Deflation on 04.21.20 at 3:43 pm

Yeah! I love deflation. I have been waiting for this lovely lady for a long, long time! Come here baby, I gotta big hug for ya!

#19 Living happy on 04.21.20 at 3:43 pm

My family is living a great life. Modest house that we have prioritized paying the mortgage down on. Even though friends ask why, When rates are so low? We drive a minivan because it’s practical. By others standards it looks like a boring life but we’re happy. Now The virus comes along. Those who have lived within their means, put aside emergency funds are going to get stuck helping paying down a deficit to fund those who overstretched on homes and toys.

How can I capitalize in these times or is just sleeping well at night my reward?

#20 CEW9 on 04.21.20 at 3:43 pm

#7 How long can this go on on 04.21.20 at 3:21 pm

How long can governments specifically USA and Canada print money without a massive power shift from North America to China or another power? 10 years? 20? 50?

_________________________________________

That’s a valid question, except for the fact that China & every other country in the world is doing the same. Monetary floodgates are open.

China has a lot more to lose, both economically and politically, from changes in supply chain logistics from this thing. With closed borders and quarantines look to see businesses move supply chains closer to home. North America will shift to Mexico & perhaps other areas in Latin America. Europe supply will pivot to the Baltics and Poland. Basically anywhere with a low wage within regional boundaries.

The trend with China losing manufacturing was already underway with US trade wars. This is just another step in that direction.

The political fallout in China will be all but assured if the economic fallout runs deep enough.

#21 Franco on 04.21.20 at 3:49 pm

While it is true that most people will survive the virus, I find it very irresponsible of you not to mention that without the health care system many more would die and many that do survive will have scarred internal organs for life.

#22 Shawn Allen on 04.21.20 at 3:49 pm

How the Virus is caught?

In the news we hear that being in a old folks home is a great way to catch the virus. Also certain work camps and shoulder-shoulder meat plants.

Living in the same house as an infected person will often mean you get it.

Other than that hardly a word on how anyone caught it.

Don’t they know? Where are the stories about Jane who lives alone and only went out to the grocery store catching it?

Apparently almost the whole population going to grocery stores (and over 95% without a mask) has led to almost no one very few grocery employees catching it that way. At least none reported. Friends of our own supermarkets. No staff infected. Knows of only a few at his competitors stores. So what does that tell you. It tells me that retail shopping with a bit of caution is very LOW risk. So, let’s open the rest of retail?

Or, if people are getting it from being out and about just a bit then please tell us the specifics. Need to know exactly what to avoid. Can’t sit home forever!

I do think the distancing and closures have prevented the hospitals from over-flowing in big cities. But can we now ease with caution? Should caution include masks?

Furthermore, what do we now know about the risk of a bad outcome for healthy people under about age 60? VERY few stores about young people dieing (yes a few, very few). Can anyone name a single young healthy celebrity that has died of it? Not a one?

Exactly which pre-existing conditions are dangerous? If it is mild Asthma and certainly mild high blood pressure or mild diabetes we should have seen a lot of bad outcomes in those under 60 as many have those conditions. Information please.

I’m still a bit on the fence about the stay-at-home policy. I think it was necessary, but has it time come to go? I think it probably should ease off on May 1. Possibly with mask-wearing strongly encouraged.

But I don’t mean to minimize the risks or the fear. And perhaps those without children (of any age) have a very hard time understanding the fear a parent has for their children (again of any age).

#23 Sail away on 04.21.20 at 3:50 pm

#9 TheDood on 04.21.20 at 3:29 pm

It sucks knowing in the back of your mind that you’re taking advantage of a fellow human being’s desperation…

——————

There are few things better than a good vultch! They feel bad, you feel good.

The scales balance. Even karma.

#24 YouKnowWho on 04.21.20 at 3:51 pm

The cheaper the gas, the more I want to ride my bike.

Must be something to do with the quarantine. Or maybe it’s my bike. You should see it. Carbon. Full XTR. 19.4lbs. SID Select DebonAir 120mm.

FAST! Off road. On road. It’s a bullet.

0L/100km – crazy fuel efficiency!

#25 John on 04.21.20 at 3:51 pm

How about dumping the oil in huge underground mineshafts, some of them are massive.
Fill er up. Sucker er out.

#26 Jim P on 04.21.20 at 3:54 pm

Don’t know if you answer questions here, but I’m one of the lucky ones with a safe job, full salary, DB pension, and because my spending has dropped (because everything is closed), I’m accumulating spare cash. So do I invest it in my TFSA (balanced etc.), or do I pay down my car loan with a 1.09% interest rate?

#27 Big Jim and the Twins on 04.21.20 at 3:58 pm

We know six million people applied for government emergency income support – about a third of the entire workforce, unable to survive a single month without pay.

———————————————-

We know six million applied, does it mean they cannot survive without it? I’m sure many are taking it because they are eligible, and why shouldn’t they?

Because they have a moral compass? – Garth

#28 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 04.21.20 at 4:00 pm

That’s why I come here Garth
facts over fear

#29 Shawn Allen on 04.21.20 at 4:05 pm

How to beat the virus

One and only one country with a large outbreak has beat the virus back to near-zero new cases.

That’s China. And we know they did it with about eight weeks of almost total lockdown and universal mask wearing and temperature taking and lots of testing.

And which countries with big outbreaks are trying the ONLY model that has worked? None? Better to assume like Trump, that China is telling lies. Okay then.

#30 Rico on 04.21.20 at 4:06 pm

Come on now, Garth.
“The terrified, the prudent, the father-knows-best crowd want the economy to stay shut.”
No one wants the economy to stay shut. All that matters is to open up the economy in a way that doesn’t overwhelm the medical system.
How is it that your opinions are more valid than those of the medical experts who say it is not yet time?
I trust Dr. Bonny Henry.

#31 flanneur on 04.21.20 at 4:18 pm

@Attrition

Down side? Really you can’t see one?

#32 Oakville Rocks! on 04.21.20 at 4:18 pm

Garth, sometimes you are as bad as the media.

“The bounce-back will be impressive when it comes – but with most Canadians wanting the lockdown to continue into autumn, the trauma will probably worsen.”

Doesn’t this statement contradict the poll you quoted yesterday that showed 61% of Canadians thought that restrictions should be eased no later than 1 or 2 months (June at the latest)?

I can only speak for Ontario but I would bet that by Mother’s Day, Doug Ford is easing restrictions and businesses will be allowed to get back to work. I am not saying it will be business as usual, it will be business with common sense social distancing and some forms of PPE where appropriate. Restaurants & Cafes (with limits) by June, farmers markets by July but no theatres, sporting events or summer music festivals this year. Absolutely by the end of May, some surgery and cancelled doctor’s visits are restarted. The social distancing and shut down that was put in place has bought us the needed time going forward. The only lag that I hear about is the lack of medical grade PPE at too many healthcare facilities given that healthcare workers have to assume each patient has CV-19 until they know otherwise.

Here is a really interesting article/opinion from the NY Times on what people should really be looking for with respect to COVID-19. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

#33 AGuyInVancouver on 04.21.20 at 4:20 pm

The terrified, the prudent, the father-knows-best crowd want the economy to stay shut. Polls show most Canadians, scared and pliant, agree. But a vocal minority cry the vulnerable should be protected, the health care system bolstered and adults allowed to assess their own levels of risk. In other words, turn the thing back on.
_ _ _
Funny, the demographics of that vocal minority who “want the healthcare system bolstered” look an awful lot like those people who run crying to the Fraser Institute the second it looks like their taxes are going up.

Last week we spent $20 billion paying people (who apparently saved nothing) not to work. Surely we could find a more worthwhile social benefit. Like health care. – Garth

#34 binky barnes on 04.21.20 at 4:21 pm

The does this (deflation) mean that savers will, in fact, be rewarded Garth?

#35 Linda on 04.21.20 at 4:27 pm

I’ve no doubt post-civid analysis will be going on for decades. In particular, Sweden’s response. They have not shut down their country, though they are practicing social distancing. There are roughly 3.6 Canadians for every Swedish citizen, yet the gap between confirmed deaths from coronavirus between the two countries is less than 100. We also have roughly 2.5 times the confirmed cases that Sweden has, despite our higher population. So I think it is fair to say the lockdown plus social distancing has had a positive result in keeping both the number of infections plus the number of deaths down in Canada.

That having been said, the economic fallout from locking down is so great that I can’t help but think that Sweden’s response would have been the better way to go. I get that people don’t want to die or see their loved ones taken from them. I also get that the elderly, particularly those in nursing homes, make up at least half of the reported deaths. However, speaking from experience, I can testify that any time a seasonal virus occurs there is a much higher incidence of death among the health compromised elderly, do what you will.

#36 Re-Cowtown on 04.21.20 at 4:28 pm

Re: Unaffordable Toys

I saw the same thing a number of years ago in the oilpatch. A young buck was bragging to me about how many vehicles he and his wife owned. Between motorbikes, quads, boats, hot rods, snowmobiles etc. he figured he owned over twenty vehicles. I told him “Don’t worry, if you stay in the oilpatch long enough it will take all of those away”.

Another young buck was bragging about his brand new $100K truck. I told him, “Look around the lease. See what kind of piles of crap the old hands drive? You need to ask yourself what they know that you don’t.”

And now he knows. Other sectors of the economy aren’t much different. It just all happens slower.

#37 earthboundmisfit on 04.21.20 at 4:29 pm

“People with money, not debt. Oh boy.”

Currently, and fortuitously, I’m on the correct side of that equation. However, when this all washes out and the piper must be paid, things will change. “Tory times are hard times” and “it’s a hard, it’s a hard, it’s a hard rain’s gonna fall”.

#38 Calgary retiree on 04.21.20 at 4:31 pm

#271 Figure it Out on 04.21.20 at 10:55 am

So far fewer than 1,600 Canadians have died of virus. Half were aged. Last year 45,000 died of smoking. Today the pessimists are clearly in charge. – Garth
——————————————–

Others have identified your comment as a false equivalency. I agree. Here are some well known observations:

People perceive risk in two mayor categories: voluntary and involuntary. Smoking and driving a car would fall in the category of voluntary. We are willing to accept vastly greater risks and consequences for voluntary risks.

Getting killed by a virus, or by some deranged random killer falls into the category of involuntary risks. We have a much lower tolerance for involuntary risks.

Comparing numbers based on both categories is meaningless.

Last year 27,000 Canadian women were diagnosed with breast cancer. Five thousand died of it. Involuntary. – Garth

#39 PSL on 04.21.20 at 4:32 pm

“…but you can hold him accountable for having no savings, resources or resistance plus a steamy pile of debt.”

________________________________

no.. of course we can’t blame central banks for the last 20 years printing money to bail out bad actors, keeping interest rates below the rate of inflation, making savings worth nothing, and forcing people into decisions that make no sense.

no… of course the central banks are not to blame.

please…

#40 Leftover on 04.21.20 at 4:32 pm

Housing?

Why buy a house when you can rent one for nothing?

#41 alf on 04.21.20 at 4:33 pm

#13 calgary rip off on 04.21.20 at 3:37 pm
Why are people overextended? Greed.

Is a want really a need? Why cant a person be happy with what they have right now?
—–

Wise words. Brings to mind one of my favorite quotes of all time.

“Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.” Epictetus

Simplicity, in my opinion, is always better.
The world we live in has become too complex for your average human.
Most folks can’t even figure out what to eat anymore.

#42 Gb on 04.21.20 at 4:37 pm

I’ve been watching Sweden closely and by all accounts—->they are balancing the virus and the economy really quite well by the looks of things.

Shutting things down for a period of time to do an inventory of supplies and “prepare” I’m okay with.

But where is the plan? I watch Trump nightly and at least they have outlined some sort of a template to get things moving again.

#43 mj on 04.21.20 at 4:37 pm

if we don’t open up the economy, and oil stays low. Does anyone think the bank of Canada will go into negative rates?

#44 Snoopy on 04.21.20 at 4:37 pm

#12 Attrition

You ask “what am I missing,” in that government is pumping in liquidity (ie. what informally would be called printing money).

What you are missing, is that the total amount of “money” in the system is not just paper money. It is the total amount of paper money plus credit that has been extended.

In fact, “money” is a piece of paper backed by a promise. It used to be (a long time ago) a promise to pay the bearer of the money a bit of gold. For a long time now, it has been a promise to actually do, frankly, nothing. Anyway, the point is that physical cash can be thought of in a way simply as a form of credit or promise. Upon this foundation, the world has spiralled into an ever increasing pyramid of almost unbelievable credit/debt piled onto even more unbelievable credit/debt. I’m not sure anyone knows how much debt / credit exits in the world. I believe it exceeds 1.5 Quadrillion (yes) by some conservative estimates when all forms of derivatives etc are taken into account.

So, you can have inflation either by printed money increasing or credit increasing or a combination of both (which we have had for a long time).

Now, we have a situation where the amount of debt in the world is rapidly being destroyed (because people are defaulting, or the fear of default is growing) beyond the pace of governments to print money.

For example, if the gov puts 10 trillion into the economy, but more than that amount of debt is destroyed by non-payment or fear of it, then that is deflationary.

So, the reason the world is deflating and will continue to do so (in my opinion) is because the world of credit can and will deflate faster than governments can print money.

Of course, there will come a time in the future when enough credit is destroyed by bankruptcy/default that new money that is printed will begin to expand the total amount of money (which is the total of all paper money plus credit). At that point, if money is printed rapidly then you will see inflation, possibly hyper inflation.

But any period of hyper inflation will only happen AFTER the glut of credit int he world is first destroyed, which is the period of time we are now experiencing.

Anyway, I am answer the question posed with my thoughts, as they explain why there is deflation happening despite huge government liquidity injections.

Other people may have different views. These are mine, respectfully submitted.

#45 Tater on 04.21.20 at 4:40 pm

#20 Calgary retiree on 04.21.20 at 4:31 pm
#271 Figure it Out on 04.21.20 at 10:55 am

So far fewer than 1,600 Canadians have died of virus. Half were aged. Last year 45,000 died of smoking. Today the pessimists are clearly in charge. – Garth
——————————————–

Others have identified your comment as a false equivalency. I agree. Here are some well known observations:

People perceive risk in two mayor categories: voluntary and involuntary. Smoking and driving a car would fall in the category of voluntary. We are willing to accept vastly greater risks and consequences for voluntary risks.

Getting killed by a virus, or by some deranged random killer falls into the category of involuntary risks. We have a much lower tolerance for involuntary risks.

Comparing numbers based on both categories is meaningless.

Last year 27,000 Canadian women were diagnosed with breast cancer. Five thousand died of it. Involuntary. – Garth
————————————————–

How many caught it from someone on the subway?

#46 DFO on 04.21.20 at 4:43 pm

That having been said, the economic fallout from locking down is so great that I can’t help but think that Sweden’s response would have been the better way to go. I get that people don’t want to die or see their loved ones taken from them. I also get that the elderly, particularly those in nursing homes, make up at least half of the reported deaths. However, speaking from experience, I can testify that any time a seasonal virus occurs there is a much higher incidence of death among the health compromised elderly, do what you will.

————————————-
And now my friends in Sweden are telling me the officials there fear approx 1/3 of Stockholm is infected.

#47 Ray Skunk on 04.21.20 at 4:46 pm

#9

It sucks knowing in the back of your mind that you’re taking advantage of a fellow human being’s desperation, but, then again, they’re in that position primarily because of past questionable financial decisions.

I’ve spent the last 15-20yrs of my life doing the “right thing” – eschewing debt, living within my means, not speculating on housing and screwing vast sections of society – basically keeping myself to myself, living modestly and quietly, looking on while some others d**k-swing about their new car, their next vacation, how much they made assigning a condo.

Well, it took a while, but now the worm has turned. I won’t be going out of my way with the “I told you so” and the rubbing it in, but by the same token I won’t feel guilt about my outlook finally coming good and my strategy prevailing.

As Garth said, it sucks that Covid has screwed a bunch of people (some of whom have been doing the “right thing”). But, there are many who tapped themselves out on consumerist crap and laughed down at the likes of us while we saved for the proverbial rainy day.

I hope you enjoy your new Harley. If the previous owner had to liquidate it after one month of financial troubles, they had no business buying it to begin with.

#48 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:47 pm

#281 James on 04.21.20 at 11:53 am
#225 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.20.20 at 11:16 pm

#154 Smoking Man on 04.20.20 at 7:10 pm
Wusses?

Bit off topic but been scanning the internet to find out what kind of gun the Nova Scotia killer used….

So far no luck.

Guess paying the MSM is working for T2
—————
Why does it matter what kind of gun was used?
Take your sick mind back to the States.
________________________________________
Send the Old Man packing back to his second amendment loving nut-bar president Trump. Good luck at the border, hope you don’t have a fever. WTF is wrong with you? Who cares about the weapon used Old Man it was real people that were killed by this raging unhinged lunatic.
Get a grip on what is more important! These innocent people had families and lives to live. Now their lives have been cut short buy a nut.
Christ you need to get a grip on reality.

RIP To all of the victims in Nova Scotia and pray
———————————————————

First and foremost, yes RIP to the victims and strength to their devastated families. This is all that counts in this tragedy. Second, you are correct in putting the idiot known as Smoking Man in his place. What a revelation of his character that in a time of incomprehensible tragedy he is wondering what kind of weapon was used. Get your ass out of Canada and back to your Trump loving NRA paradise.

#49 Spiltbongwater on 04.21.20 at 4:48 pm

NYC % of deaths above normal. 298%. Canada dodged a bullet perhaps with some of the actions or inactions. Lets just open the pools and barbershops and see if we can be better then NYC. After all non contagious activities like smoking and driving kill more people.

#50 n1tro on 04.21.20 at 4:49 pm

Dear Prime Minister Trudeau,

I would like to request that you use your powers to declare a debt jubilee for me and my fellow Canadians. It’s not our fault that we were house horny and over leveraged ourselves with cheap mortgages on million dollar homes with slanted roofs. The media told us that housing was universal right.

Also, thank you for the CERB, the $8K help me pay for the granite countertops I had installed in my condo.

Cancelling out my mortgage debt would sure make me a life long liberal voter (wink, wink!).

Yours truly,

Home Owner who was told housing never goes down.

#51 CalgaryCarGuy on 04.21.20 at 4:49 pm

I believe wage stagnation has played a huge part in the growing debt load that many people now carry. Wage stagnation has been with us for over a decade now…maybe even longer. I was laid off at the end of January from a car dealership I first started working for in 1993. In 2008 (it was still boom times in Calgary then) all employees except sales people and technicians were told their pay was capped. Some people took a wage cut and then a cap. I was one of those. When I left in January I was still making exactly what I made in 2007…right to the penny. Why didn’t people leave? Mainly because that company was a very good place to work otherwise. People were loyal and just hoped that at some point a raise would come. It never did. The other reason is that you build up your clientel while working retail and having to start all over again somewhere else is sometimes daunting.
Over that same period of time everything was still rising in price of course so every year your pay was worth less and less. The last couple of years I witnessed parts prices going through the roof. I said to management several times that people were already struggling with car repair bills and we were starting to price ourselves out of customers. It has to end somewhere. When your pay keeps up with inflation all is well. When it doesn’t you’re screwed.
Although my example is maybe extreme (maybe not) I am of the belief there are a great many other people in the private sector whose pay hasn’t kept up with inflation either for a long period of time. It’s unsustainable.

#52 Ovi on 04.21.20 at 4:50 pm

Last year 27,000 Canadian women were diagnosed with breast cancer. Five thousand died of it. Involuntary. – Garth

Some of those deaths are a result of lifestyle choices.

#53 E on 04.21.20 at 4:52 pm

I remember the horrendous hyperinflation in the soviet union. Now, the deflation. Of the stories I will tell the great grand kids.

#54 The West on 04.21.20 at 4:54 pm

“You cannot blame some schmuck with a house, two kids, a mortgage and no pension for losing his job to Covid-19, but you can hold him accountable for having no savings, resources or resistance plus a steamy pile of debt. All those warnings about 50% of people living within two hundred bucks a month of insolvency were apparently correct. When the inevitable shock came, they folded.”

Are you serious?? We have a centrally planned economy run by the shadow neo-liberals who have outsoured our incomes and then given us credit cards to by assets that no one can afford without debt….HAHA….”they folded” ….they never had a chance….

Ready….plug your ears…..

They privatized the profits and socialized the losses!

We’ve been sold out. Stop printing money! Stop funding debt based lives that are not real, unplug the plebs from the lie and let this circus burn right down to the ground! But, I know, we would never let the serfs wake up – for now – the dream is still too appealing.

They privatized the profits and socialized the losses.

#55 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:55 pm

“Who survives deflation?

People with money, not debt. Oh boy.”

As a child of immigrants who went through the Great Depression and WW2, it was ingrained in me from an early age to save for the rainy day. Or to use the parlance of Warren Buffett, to show that when the tide went out, you are not swimming naked. Well it has served me well in life. This might be just what the financial doctor ordered as it will permanently imprint in the minds of many the need to eschew debt and having savings/portfolios that grow over time. Time will tell…

#56 Attrition on 04.21.20 at 4:55 pm

Anyone else notice how pro-Virusers sound a lot like anti-Vaxers? Two sides of the same coin.

No matter what evidence you present, if it doesn’t jive with their beliefs, they dismiss it.

Garth, you can’t win against them. It’s like arguing about evolution with the religilous. Doomers believe in doom, nothing else. Apocalypse, end times, etc etc. etc.

In their eyes, the calm, rational folks are wrong, we just can’t or won’t see the pending doom because of some character flaw or inherent ignorance. Only they, the emotional, reactive and prone to panic are correct and can see clearly…

On and on, over and over.

We the rational are outnumbered.

It’s always been so.

#57 Keen Reader on 04.21.20 at 4:55 pm

Hopefully you guys manage to convince lots of folks to stay home instead of travelling. Much easier to fully enjoy the memorable sites when fewer people abound. Nothing wrong with Balconville, especially for everyone else!

#58 Scott on 04.21.20 at 4:56 pm

Garth 6 million people applying for CERB doesn’t mean they all can’t afford a month without it. Similar to OAS, not everyone is in dire need of it. If you qualify though, why wouldn’t you take it? I’m still on the books at Air Canada due to the subsidy but that may be up June 6th. 2k a month happens to be just about the right amount for me to live frugally each month during this. I could live a few months burning my emergency fund. After that I could slowly cash out the TFSA and live off that but why in the hell would I not take the 2k a month that I will qualify for?
Applying for CERB doesn’t mean they’re on the street if they don’t get it.

#59 TurnerNation on 04.21.20 at 4:57 pm

Its’ amazing how the Keep Your Rent movement appeared suddenly out of nowhere, slick web site and all , and spread nationwide within days. Posters – I saw them – sprung up. This is a big planning.
At once it became a political tool in support of the UBI (which we all know was waiting in the wings).

If y’all cannot see we are under a co-ordinated attack, with a timeline, I cannot help you.
Shoot you will not be seeing the whites of their eyes.

#60 unbalanced on 04.21.20 at 4:59 pm

Moral compass…hmmmm….I think of Bronfman family , SNC-Lavalin and general revenues. Need I say more.

#61 Freedom First on 04.21.20 at 5:00 pm

Sad time for many people, world wide, and in Canada. Hard times are not good for anyone.

#62 Tbone on 04.21.20 at 5:01 pm

#10 armpit
I retired this year and I agree that I would not go back after all this subsides if I was still working .
It is so refreshing to wake up without a single thought
Of work . I often don’t even know what day it is . Every day is Saturday now. Life is good .
I hope everyone gets a chance to experience it .

#63 Lee on 04.21.20 at 5:01 pm

I think if people are sitting on cash, sit a few months more. I expect that the stock market will plunk again because it is inevitable that the virus infection rate will move upwards as people begin to socialize too early. The media will then publish scary headlines about how we returned to work too soon and how now we have to social distance all over again. This will be too much for many people invested in the market to handle.

#64 MA on 04.21.20 at 5:03 pm

The only source of reliable Canadian news at the moment in regards to this crisis is this website. What a tragic comedy.

#65 Hugues S Nerin on 04.21.20 at 5:04 pm

With all the money they print, the value of the money decrease…
So the price should go up..?…
Leading to inflation…. instead of deflation…
The winners being those with debts & real estate & company shares
Instead of those with cash..
I see it that way…?…

#66 72 and scratching my head on 04.21.20 at 5:05 pm

Why has the news media ignored the obvious need for the Government of Canada and each Provincial government to improve the accommodation and the health care of elderly Canadian citizens with pre-existing conditions that increase their risk to viral infections.

Far too many elderly citizens are forced to live in profit oriented shared accommodation that offers minimum health care services. Viral infections are with us to stay and our priority should be improve living conditions for those citizens with the greatest level of risk.

I have not heard one offer of support for the construction of affordable housing with improved health care for Canadian citizens with pre-existing health concerns. No problem splashing 200 billion dollars to support a lockdown but not one mention of trying to improve the life expectancy of Canadians who are at risk.

If the Government of Canada can buy $200 billion of mortgage debt to support the real estate market they should be able to support an improvement in housing conditions for the citizens who paid taxes for forty years or more.

Just saying!!!

#67 MF on 04.21.20 at 5:06 pm

“ But a vocal minority cry the vulnerable should be protected, the health care system bolstered and adults allowed to assess their own levels of risk. In other words, turn the thing back on.”

Lol that’s not what the vocal minority says. More often than not they call for anarchy, point fingers, cite junk science, and disparage experts.

Most people want to get back to work, but cautiously. They are open to suggestions but don’t want to harm others and point fingers.

We aren’t pliant, we are understanding. Big difference.

MF

#68 SmallTownSteve on 04.21.20 at 5:11 pm

#47
Wrong, they are reporting that 1/3 of the Swedish population have herd immunity.

#69 Drew on 04.21.20 at 5:13 pm

The comeuppance for people buying houses they can’t afford, no savings, and living beyond their means was coming sooner or later

#70 Sail Away on 04.21.20 at 5:14 pm

#41 alf on 04.21.20 at 4:33 pm
#13 calgary rip off on 04.21.20 at 3:37 pm

Why are people overextended? Greed.

Is a want really a need? Why cant a person be happy with what they have right now?

—————-

Wise words. Brings to mind one of my favorite quotes of all time

“Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.” Epictetus

Simplicity, in my opinion, is always better.

The world we live in has become too complex for your average human.

Most folks can’t even figure out what to eat anymore.

—————-

Exactly. Enrich yourself by reducing wants.

Today I’m ‘working’ from home while lying on the couch. Heck, don’t even need a computer. Just a comfortable couch and a smartphone. Now and again I nod off.

Later, dinner will consist of food. So simple for us omnivores.

#71 Snoopy on 04.21.20 at 5:19 pm

#67 Hugues S Nerin

No. See above.

Again, the government cannot print money to get out of this mess. Not unless they do do at a scale that is literally 100 or 1000 times what they are currently doing.

We are in a period of sustained deflation that will affect all assets denominated in cash. Which means everything, including gold etc.

However, once the debt/credit glut is purged, then we will face the possibility of severe inflation. At that point, all the usual blah blah blahs of hyper inflation will apply (land, precious metals etc.)

Anyway, carry on.

#72 S on 04.21.20 at 5:21 pm

“Prices, wages and asset values fall – the opposite of inflation. Money becomes more valuable. Debt becomes unrepayable. – Garth”

Now I’m a little lost… So are you still advocating being fully invested or should one with cash stay with cash? Not trying to bait you, I just really need some direction. Especially now that money is being thrown from helicopters at anyone who asks… Almost as though it didn’t have any value at all.

#73 Stan Brooks on 04.21.20 at 5:22 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-reach-3-000-50-110324862.html

Gold to reach 3 k USD/Bank of America.

That is 4.3 k in loonies. It used to be 600 bucks/in loonies in 2005.

7 times appreciation in 15 years. How much was the official inflation? sub 2 %? Right.

Cheers all bullion lickers,

#74 Oracle of Ottawa on 04.21.20 at 5:25 pm

All the more reason to have mandatory financial courses in school. Nobody has a clue on fiscal responsibility.

#75 Gil on 04.21.20 at 5:28 pm

The bounce-back will be impressive when it comes – but with most Canadians wanting the lockdown to continue into autumn, the trauma will probably worsen
***************************************

It’s not difficult to bounce from a 15% contraction and almost total shutdown. Those expecting that with all the extra debt, much higher unemployment and depressed consumer spending, economy will be roaring…. Well, they are in for an unpleasant surprise

#76 Howard on 04.21.20 at 5:28 pm

A deflationary impulse would indicate the stock markets are also set to go lower for longer. Oh wait, but that’s different?

#77 Dogman01 on 04.21.20 at 5:34 pm

#4 Roial1 on 04.21.20 at 3:20 pm
Remember not so long ago we were paying 1.50$ and more for a liter of gas. Peak oil and running out of it???
The switch is breath taking.

I remember peak oil, books were written about it; “How your World is going to get Smaller”
How could they all be so wrong?

I remember the 1st Gulf War, “Weapons of Mass Destruction!”
How could they lie so blatantly?

It is why I can’t believe “Climate Change”, it is just too convenient and they are so wrong and they lie.

It is why I am a bit concerned with the Covid reaction thus far..

#78 Snoopy on 04.21.20 at 5:35 pm

#79 Howard

Correct. Much lower. Much much lower. For much much longer.

Just my views.

#79 Reality is stark on 04.21.20 at 5:36 pm

Are you people for real?
You mean to tell me you didn’t know we were already in a deflationary environment?
The rest of the world works for $2.00 an hour. Goods are made in those places.
We exported those jobs.
We printed money here to artificially raise the price of houses. You borrowed against the house to buy things you really couldn’t afford.
If you told your significant other you would only pay cash for things because you were prudent and understood deflation they would leave and take whatever capital was accumulated in court.
This isn’t even news.

#80 Calgary retiree on 04.21.20 at 5:36 pm

“Last year 27,000 Canadian women were diagnosed with breast cancer. Five thousand died of it. Involuntary. – Garth”
———————————————

Right, and we’re spending great resources on the prevention and treatment. But, I’m sure it hasn’t escaped you that cancer is not contagious. If it were contagious we would practice separation and isolation as we do for the virus. Again, false equivalencies.

Could it be that you have an ideology or political viewpoint to prove?

#81 Gil on 04.21.20 at 5:37 pm

#12 Attrition on 04.21.20 at 3:35 pm
I see no downside.
What am I missing?

***********************************
You are looking at it as a consumer, wrong way.
Ask the Japanese. They had deflation for years, low spending (both consumer and corporate), anemic economic growth. Unemployment as an added benefit

#82 Chris in Edm on 04.21.20 at 5:39 pm

The thing that keeps me up the most at night about this whole pandemic is what it’s going to do to our future economy and taxes. I’m sure NOTHING is being said (other than on this blog) about the sad financial state Canadians are in because people and governments are focused on trying to tackle this virus, but when we do (and we will), I’m positive no one is going to ask the tough questions loud enough and everyone will just go back to trying to keep up with the Jones’.

#83 The real Kip (Ret) on 04.21.20 at 5:40 pm

Anyone notice how clean the air is these days? Why would we be in a hurry to go back to burning all that oil?

#84 Roger_home_inspector on 04.21.20 at 5:42 pm

#13-Calgary-Rip-Off

I couldn’t agree more. I don’t get the whole travel thing. We’ve won the generic lottery living in Canada at this present time. Why would I want to go vacation at some sun destination which is essentially me going to enjoy myself in someone else’s poverty?? I’m quite happy to stay put.

#85 Freida Freeman on 04.21.20 at 5:42 pm

Garth, Can the Billionaires in Canada help Canadians during this pandemic, like give them some cheddar? We are all on Team Canada and now is the time to help for those that have Billions and nowhere to spend it. The money shared will go right back into the economy and help our GDP, strengthening Canada, our home.

#86 Piano_Man87 on 04.21.20 at 5:46 pm

I am really starting to think most of the developed world got this wrong.

Sweden hasn’t closed schools, restaurants, gyms, or bars. They have closed clubs. Every other table at restaurants are not for use. People are encouraged to work from home. The elderly and frail are being protected. The virus is being allowed to spread throughout the rest, who have a 99+% chance of surviving. Death rate is not skyrocketing. It is tame. Not as good as the other Nordic nations, but not as bad as Spain or Italy. Hospitals have spare ICU capacity.

Their rationale is that most countries will be doing what they’re doing in a while anyway – their measures are sustainable. Ours aren’t. As evidenced by our crumbling economy. We will see a big wave when we loosen up. Why prolong the inevitable, when we will have nothing to show for our aggressive lockdowns but hundreds of billions of debt, QE, and millions out of work? What is the point of this destruction if it just delays something, but doesn’t solve it?

#87 THE DEBT LOVER on 04.21.20 at 5:48 pm

GOVERNMENTS bury themselves in DEBT.
They BAIL-OUT themselves

Corporations bury themselves in DEBT.
GOVERNMENTS Bail-out the Corporations

CITIZENS bury themselves in DEBT.
Governments and Corporations Bail-out the citizens.

BY THE WAY – Who is over-lending to who?

STOP LENDING!

#88 Coopoiler on 04.21.20 at 5:52 pm

So. Lots of people are suggesting that manufacturing will come back to North America from China when this is done. I disagree. When a widget costs five dollars from China no one is going to pay ten dollars for one made here, not even seven dollars will make them buy here. Oil is a perfect example! Decades ago Canada established a national energy program so we would be free of world prices. When the oil was cheaper in Canada everyone cheered and agreed. As soon as the price of world oil started to go down we cried, why should we pay more than anyone else so the plan was abandoned.

#89 BS on 04.21.20 at 6:00 pm

#36 Linda on 04.21.20 at 4:27 pm

I’ve no doubt post-civid analysis will be going on for decades. In particular, Sweden’s response. They have not shut down their country, though they are practicing social distancing. There are roughly 3.6 Canadians for every Swedish citizen, yet the gap between confirmed deaths from coronavirus between the two countries is less than 100. We also have roughly 2.5 times the confirmed cases that Sweden has, despite our higher population. So I think it is fair to say the lockdown plus social distancing has had a positive result in keeping both the number of infections plus the number of deaths down in Canada.

Way too early to conclude anything. Canada may get a spike up as soon as we partially open. Then we may shutdown again because people freak out. We will need to see where we are at in 6 months or a year. In the end the deaths may be about equal on a per capita except Sweden did it without shutting down on and off and destroying their economy. Sweden will have herd immunity while we are still hiding in our basements on and off. When all is said and done I bet shutting down just delays the inevitable infections and spreads them out over a longer time. Maybe necessary to the extent not to overload hospitals but our hospitals are empty now and were never close to capacity. My bet is Sweden’s model will the the best.

#90 DFO on 04.21.20 at 6:00 pm

Herd immunity implies there’s a barrier of immune animals between the infected and uninfected.

Please tell me how that’s being organized in Sweden. I’ll save you the time, it’s not, it’s just people milling about as per normal, so there are no herd immunity benefits.

#91 Sail away on 04.21.20 at 6:03 pm

#80 Dogman01 on 04.21.20 at 5:34 pm
#4 Roial1 on 04.21.20 at 3:20 pm

Remember not so long ago we were paying 1.50$ and more for a liter of gas. Peak oil and running out of it???
The switch is breath taking.

—————

I remember peak oil, books were written about it; “How your World is going to get Smaller”
How could they all be so wrong?

I remember the 1st Gulf War, “Weapons of Mass Destruction!”
How could they lie so blatantly?

It is why I can’t believe “Climate Change”, it is just too convenient and they are so wrong and they lie.

It is why I am a bit concerned with the Covid reaction thus far..

—————

My contributions:

I remember WorldCom
I remember Enron
I’ve studied McCarthyism and the Salem Witch Trials and the Rise of the Third Reich
I remember ‘vaccines cause autism’
I remember Covington Catholic high school kids
I sailed slowly through the GREAT PACIFIC GARBAGE PATCH for weeks, and saw nothing out of the ordinary
I keep track of the climate movement
I keep track of the Covid hysteria
I sometimes manipulate people

…and have learned to apply skepticism liberally

#92 Retro Marxist on 04.21.20 at 6:04 pm

Remember when oil prices were triple digits and the oil companies told us that it’s demand and supply? Why the meow are these same oil companies begging for corporate welfare because the demand for oil has collapsed while supply has increased because of the Saudi-Russia beef?

Further to this, the Ontario PCs are taking federal emergency monies from welfare recipients by deducting the benefits dollar for dollar from their benefits.

Capitalize the profits, but socialize the losses!

#93 Oakville Sucks on 04.21.20 at 6:07 pm

Who saw the CTV News bit today “Sex workers need to be compensated for lost income”????

I’m sure the liberals are working on a package for them too!

#94 THE DEBT LOVER on 04.21.20 at 6:07 pm

Some legacy SOAP OPERAS to keep you all couch potatoes busy.

Guiding Light – into Bankruptcy
As the World Turns – into DEBT
Days of Our Lives – in DEBT
One Life to Live – so live it in DEBT
All My Children – live in DEBT
The Young and the Restless – are in DEBT
The Bold and the Beautiful – are in DEBT
Dallas – didn’t do it without DEBT
Dynasty – Supplied the DEBT

NETFLIX requires a CREDIT CARD to watch these shows. MORE DEBT.

#95 Attrition on 04.21.20 at 6:11 pm

#84 Gil on 04.21.20 at 5:37 pm

#12 Attrition on 04.21.20 at 3:35 pm
I see no downside.
What am I missing?

***********************************
You are looking at it as a consumer, wrong way.
Ask the Japanese. They had deflation for years, low spending (both consumer and corporate), anemic economic growth. Unemployment as an added benefit

I do look at Japan.

First hand, on the ground, for decades, and often. I’ve written books about living and travelling in Japan. I’d be there now, probably harvesting uni on some northern beach, if it wasn’t for this darned viral outbreak.

People mention the Japanese experience like it’s some sort of scary thing. I don’t get it.

Tiny country, incredibly innovative, likely world’s second largest economy now, and a massive middle class nation of savers.

Houses are dirt cheap. In some areas, they give the land away, but this is due to demographics as we all know. They…um…decided long, long ago not to let their culture get washed away by mass immigration…

Little economic growth, but an unmatched standard of living and life expectancy.

Not the worst outcome for a country.

#96 Toronto_CA on 04.21.20 at 6:12 pm

Thanks for bringing up deflation Garth, I did think and comment a few days ago this looked like a deflationary cycle starting due to lack of demand.

I know from your GFC postings that deflation is as bad for the economy as high inflation and something to be avoided at all costs.

I would love to see a poll of Garth’s readers to see who here thinks it is necessary for the lockdowns to be extended until September versus thinks they should be ended in May.

Personally my view is it is already out there and the lockdowns are not doing anything anymore, and we should slowly and surely start opening schools and socially distanced retail/offices.

#97 BrianT on 04.21.20 at 6:13 pm

I am surprised that people who are interested in investing knowledge would not wonder why almost 100% of the MSM and government mouthpieces are speaking with one voice on this topic-so much so that there are calls for criminalizing any dissent at all on this. Does that sound like a fair and balanced discussion of what should be done?
We are being bombarded with 24/7 info that all says the same thing-stay inside-FEAR-thinking is dangerous, blah blah blah. Don’t all those who are scared feel just a little insulted by how dumbed down all this B/S is? Just a little insulted?

#98 Editrix on 04.21.20 at 6:16 pm

The BBC American news had a piece on the NYC low wage workers and how they’re coping with everything. Interesting to see that a couple of people interviewed said they can hold on for a month or two, drawing on their savings. Not seeing that in the Canadian stories.

Looks like when this lock down is over, the US will surge ahead of Canada, the opposite of the recovery after 2008.

#99 Sail away on 04.21.20 at 6:18 pm

#310 NFN_NLN on 04.21.20 at 5:52 pm

COVID-19 is a medical break through. Ever since it’s introduction it has completely eliminated deaths from plain old flu and pneumonia.

—————

Hahaha… this deserves a repeat!

#100 the Jaguar on 04.21.20 at 6:22 pm

@#50 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:47 pm
I wonder if any of the three of you who posted your vicious comments about Smoking Man are aware he is in a fight for his life right now. Even if that were not the case this isn’t your blog or your right to attack other people. You might want to look over your shoulder in the future in case ‘Karma’ is gaining on you. All three of you.

#101 Graphics Girl on 04.21.20 at 6:23 pm

So it’s OK for the government to go into debt, encourage spending, but dog forbid we do! GDB depends on us to do so.

Yes, I have debt, but if I did lose my job in a recession, at least I would have options to make ends meet: dog walking, Tim Hortons, rent room out to a student… but my options have been taken away. Without my vote.

I’m with the U.S. protestors. Why are we so agreeable to our politicians devastating our economy for a select few who are vulnerable?

Mandate – and supply – everyone with masks. If you’re diabetic, asthma, sick, then stay home.

#102 Trojan House on 04.21.20 at 6:30 pm

#48 DFO on 04.21.20 at 4:43 pm

“And now my friends in Sweden are telling me the officials there fear approx 1/3 of Stockholm is infected.”

And of those 1/3, something like 96% are asymptomatic. Let’s do the math. Stockholm has about 1 million people. One third is 300,000. If 96% are asymptomatic, that is 288,000. That leaves the other 4% or 12,000 people who have symptoms. If the death rate is 3.5%, that’s about 4200 people or 0.42% of a million.

When you write it the way you did, that’s fearmongering.

#103 Barb on 04.21.20 at 6:35 pm

Can only imagine how the banks will rake in unbelievable profits with all those deferred mortgage payments, plus interest?, being tacked onto the principal.

Almost time to buy more banks…

#104 Francis on 04.21.20 at 6:43 pm

#6 Property Accountant on 04.21.20 at 3:21 pm
The virus is not as deadly as officials and WHO thinks it is.
Recent German study and US Santa Clara County, CA study point to that. Although there are some flaws in those studies, the actual death ratio points to somewhere between 0.12% to 0.4% of infected people, making the virus close to influenza stats.
German Study
US Santa Clara County study

———

Lol. I stopped reading at “ Although there are some flaws in those studies…”

I stop reading at WHO

#105 A Girl Who Invests on 04.21.20 at 6:45 pm

Now add on top all the people who have never invested/traded before throwing loads of money into the market thinking they can make fast money. So.eone posted on Reddit that he just lost his life savings investing in USO. $175,000 gone in 2 days. So foolish. And more and more people are asking stock market questions which make it obvious they don’t know what they’re doing. They all assume everything will only go up and when it doesn’t they bail and take massive losses. They’ll all learn a very hard lesson. And this will pile up on the money issues people already have.

#106 the Jaguar on 04.21.20 at 6:46 pm

@#37 Re-Cowtown on 04.21.20 at 4:28 pm
I love this post.

“Another young buck was bragging about his brand new $100K truck. I told him, “Look around the lease. See what kind of piles of crap the old hands drive? You need to ask yourself what they know that you don’t.” And now he knows. Other sectors of the economy aren’t much different. It just all happens slower.”

Likely the same young buck owes more than $100K on the truck because the one he traded in when he visited the dealership still had a significant balance owing on its contract. Many of these guys just drive the trucks to the airport when the SHTF and park them with the keys left inside and then board a plane back to New Brunswick or their province of origin. That will catch up with them, of course.
While I agree with the banker quoted ( Laura Dottori-Attanasio), fact is even if lockdown is lifted and business gets a green light to re-open, there is no way to know if all jobs will come back or if consumers still behind in payments will bring demand back. No way to know where the wreckage will lie. But the landscape will be permanently changed as will many people’s lives.

#107 oh bouy on 04.21.20 at 6:48 pm

@#105 the Jaguar on 04.21.20 at 6:22 pm
@#50 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:47 pm
I wonder if any of the three of you who posted your vicious comments about Smoking Man are aware he is in a fight for his life right now. Even if that were not the case this isn’t your blog or your right to attack other people. You might want to look over your shoulder in the future in case ‘Karma’ is gaining on you. All three of you.
_________________

more like ‘karma’ caught up to smokingman.

#108 Ace Goodheart on 04.21.20 at 6:48 pm

It might not be a good idea to be in cash right now.

Governments around the world have shown a willingness, really a complete openness and almost a desire, to print money and give it away.

How much is your $2000.00 CDN worth, when anyone can go on the internet, answer three questions, and get $2000.00 CDN put into their bank account, for free, never to be repaid?

You can’t print a house, or land, or stock (without devaluing the company) or trust units (REITS and their underlying assets).

I see the massive money printing operations going on right now around the world as inflationary.

Maybe I am wrong. Time will tell I guess.

#109 Francis on 04.21.20 at 6:48 pm

One bank alone – CIBC – has approved 250,000 deferrals and payments on $20 billion worth of home loans, credit cards and LOCs. The woman in charge of banking operations is frank. She calls it “toxic.”

It that just me that find highly ironic that a lender that poison their clients with debt call them toxic?

#110 Nonplused on 04.21.20 at 6:50 pm

Deflation? Possible but the effects of all this money printing without corresponding productivity strikes me as inflationary, as does all the supply chain disruptions. You can’t print money to pay people to sit at home and not cause inflation. They need to produce so there is a corresponding amount of goods and services to go along with the money.

Perhaps we’ll get deflation in areas where there is a lot of debt like housing but inflation at the grocery store, the worst of both worlds.

The oil thing hurts more than it helps at this point. In theory cheap energy prices help the economy but as we are proving right now that only works if there is some “pull” from energy demand. None of my vehicles have gone anywhere in a couple weeks so it wouldn’t matter to me if gas was free. But it has been absolutely devastating for the Alberta economy, and the Canadian economy as well. Ottawa is a lot more dependent on royalties and taxes from the oil patch than people like to think.

I think we have to move to a state where we reopen the economy on at least a limited basis and monitor outbreaks, turning to a more focused regime. I just got an account relayed to me that came from a ER doctor in Lethbridge for example and his story is that the hospital is pretty empty. There aren’t too many cases down there and the people who would normally come to the ER are staying away, so he is actually slower than before the crisis. So why should Lethbridge be on lockdown? Measures like frequent hand washing and social distancing are probably all they need right now. Maybe masks. Maybe they could make masks and send them to Calgary, where there is more of a problem.

#111 S.Bby on 04.21.20 at 6:50 pm

I’m seeing cars for sale on Craigslist now with the verbiage: “selling due to job loss” should be some good deals a coming. Like a 1975 Trans Am almost cherry condition asking $23K.

#112 Nonplused on 04.21.20 at 6:53 pm

#4 Roial1 on 04.21.20 at 3:20 pm
Remember not so long ago we where paying 1.50$ and more for a liter of gas. Peak oil and running out of it???
The switch is breath taking.

——————————-

A 30% drop in world wide oil demand is not the same thing as having an abundance of it. What we have is an abundance of misery.

#113 Pragmatist on 04.21.20 at 6:54 pm

For those of you out there who are ardent environmentalists and supporters of Greta Thunberg: how do you like this dream world now? We’re quite low-carbon now. Be careful what you wish for. Let’s try not to be hypocrites and continue to consume and consume yet claiming to be environmentally-friendly. Composting doesn’t ease the guilt of consumption.

#114 Dogman01 on 04.21.20 at 6:54 pm

#53 CalgaryCarGuy on 04.21.20 at 4:49 pm

I am of the belief there are a great many other people in the private sector whose pay hasn’t kept up with inflation either for a long period of time. It’s unsustainable.

———————————————————-
The standard of living in Canada has been dropping for 30 years, between your lived experience above and the basic shelter prices continually rising.

There is no demand for labour…., we outsource jobs and import labour to keep the price for labour stagnant. Labour has no voice, no power, and no awareness. The “buyers” of labour are smart, know what is going on, have access to government decision makers and has a long term perspective. They ensure they have cheep and compliant labour.

For 90% of the people on the bell curve, your only hope is a Government Job.

#115 Hawk on 04.21.20 at 6:56 pm

This is exactly what I have been thinking. All the youtube pundits (except Harry Dent), particularly the Gold proponents are arguing for hyperinflation in the near future.

But other than food, medicine, essential toiletries etc, why would we have hugh inflation right now?

No the big ticket items will be experiencing Deflation, not Inflation.

#116 Trojan House on 04.21.20 at 6:58 pm

From the CDC, 2017-18 flu season in the United States:
– estimated 45 million got sick
– 21 million visited healthcare
– 800,000 hospitalizations
– 61,000 deaths
– highest number of flu cases since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (estimated 60 million cases in the US)

Further:
– rates of hospitalization in all age groups was the highest since 2005
– 11 million children infected
– 28 million 18 to 64 year olds infected
– 6 million in the age of 65 or older

However:
– 67% of those over age 65 hospitalized with 85% of those succumbing to the infection
– 9600 adults died (18 to 64)
– only 640 children died

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm

#117 Ron Jeremy on 04.21.20 at 7:02 pm

#97 Oakville Sucks on 04.21.20 at 6:07 pm

“Who saw the CTV News bit today “Sex workers need to be compensated for lost income”??”

Your pseudonym is quite Freudian after one reads your comment…:)

#118 Ace Goodheart on 04.21.20 at 7:03 pm

Here is an interesting case study in Toronto housing:

This is a million, two hundred thousand dollar Toronto house:

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.656738&-79.488404&15?listing=577-beresford-avenue-york-w4724057-4077144

Yes, the madness continues.

Last year this house would have gotten about $900,000.

#119 Dogman01 on 04.21.20 at 7:03 pm

#95 Sail away on 04.21.20 at 6:03 pm

#80 Dogman01 on 04.21.20 at 5:34 pm
#4 Roial1 on 04.21.20 at 3:20 pm

—————————————–

A good quote:

“When I was young and naïve, I believed that important people took positions based on careful consideration of the options. Now I know better. Much of what Serious People believe rests on prejudices, not analysis. And these prejudices are subject to fads and fashions.”
– Paul Krugman

#120 SOMETHINGS UP on 04.21.20 at 7:04 pm

The WORST is yet to come!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hul1kuWDKE

#121 David Pylyp on 04.21.20 at 7:13 pm

If you struggled to make your payments before; how will you handle these changes in priorities, inflation, increased expenses and probably increaseed interest rates?

Renew and Consolidate into a lower rate

David Pylyp
Toronto

#122 S.Bby on 04.21.20 at 7:13 pm

Trudeau says this is the new normal until a vaccine is found. That’ll be 12 to 18 months… or never by some accounts. Meanwhile the US will be back at work long before then.

#123 not 1st on 04.21.20 at 7:21 pm

Garth why do the heads of the big 5 have to make some derogatory statement to their customers? I assume they have Mr Morneau on speed dial and can offer up something else other than economic suicide as public policy.

#124 AisA on 04.21.20 at 7:24 pm

I almost feel bad for the folks who are really afraid to go out at all, when there is a good chance they’ve already had and dealt with the virus without even knowing it.

There are a lot of them.

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 7:26 pm

@#113 oh bouy

My my , a new low….even for you.

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 7:32 pm

@#119 Pragmatist
“……supporters of Greta Thunberg: how do you like this dream world now? We’re quite low-carbon now. Be careful what you wish for….”
+++
True enough.
However, that being said.
I wonder if the people the most air polluted cities ( Delhi, Calcutta, Beijing, etc.) will start wanting clean air after the work starts cranking back up.
They’ve had a “taste” of clean air for the first time in decades……

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-india-lockdown-clear-skies-clean-air-pollution-12662694

#127 oh bouy on 04.21.20 at 7:33 pm

@#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 7:26 pm
@#113 oh bouy

My my , a new low….even for you.

__________________________

lol, that’s pretty rich coming from you.

#128 Dolce Vita on 04.21.20 at 7:35 pm

Choked to no end about the numbers today and where that is headed. Truthfully. A sigh for Canada.

————————-

Reading the too and froes here about C19, its lethality etc. Whether it is or not is a moot issue now.

Rather than argue that science better to use something that is working and I have suggested here many times and that is:

Ro

to decide when to open an economy as Italy has done and the Germans are doing, both of which use Ro as a key indicator towards that end (the French as well). The number is publicized widely by both Health Ministries.

Again an Ro=1 means the contagion is stable, 1 infected will infect no more than another. An Ro 1.0. C19 takes a few weeks to heal if not longer. Sadly, the “backlog” lingers until it is cleared away.

In the meantime rather than freaking out you know those cases and deaths will go down and instead of paralysis, analysis on how and when an economy should open back up can ensue.

And yes, we have begun to reverse positive cases from increases to decreases here in Italia. Expect the same to come from Germany with an Ro of 0.7.

Get with it Canada. The populations is smart and can negotiate an Ro number. You can be planning, even with new cases and deaths, knowing they will abate soon enough.

No time wasted.

#129 dutch4505 on 04.21.20 at 7:36 pm

Flatten the curve! Remember that? That is why we were placed in lock down mode.

Mission accomplished. The curve has been flattened.

Now the governments are changing the goal posts. They want us to stay in lock down mode until a vaccine is found.

“Make Canada/USA free again”

#130 Dolce Vita on 04.21.20 at 7:44 pm

Forgot to provide the increase decrease chart for positive cases in Italia:

https://i.imgur.com/hWVdFJa.png

You can easily eyeball when Ro <= 1 started and when in the last couple of days it went to 0.8.

Reliable.

Rather than waiting for it be "Gone. Gone." when you know cases and deaths will drop and start planning to open the economy up instead of wasting time.

I look at the US situation today and the poor people there are not given an rational reason to remain in lockdown and when that might end.

Ro is the answer. Being used in 3 of the G7, we can' all be wrong.

#131 Drill Baby Drill on 04.21.20 at 7:44 pm

I love the smell of diesel exhaust in the morning.

#132 Sail Away on 04.21.20 at 7:45 pm

#113 oh bouy on 04.21.20 at 6:48 pm
@#105 the Jaguar on 04.21.20 at 6:22 pm
@#50 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:47 pm
I wonder if any of the three of you who posted your vicious comments about Smoking Man are aware he is in a fight for his life right now. Even if that were not the case this isn’t your blog or your right to attack other people. You might want to look over your shoulder in the future in case ‘Karma’ is gaining on you. All three of you.

—————–

more like ‘karma’ caught up to smokingman.

—————–

Cold. Too cold.

Don’t make it about you, don’t pretend your judgement about good or bad karma has any relevance.

Not anyone’s place to judge. It happens to everyone. You’ll get there.

#133 Drill Baby Drill on 04.21.20 at 7:47 pm

Trudeau is as lame a PM as I have ever had to endure. I am over 65 with health issues and I currently have a head cold that would kill a moose. I cannot believe we would keep our economy shut down for more that 4 – 6 weeks max. To even consider anything longer is beyond my capacity to understand. Good luck to us all.

#134 Jay Currie on 04.21.20 at 7:49 pm

I expect deflation and a calling to account on over leveraging both personally and corporately. I am not in a rush to get into the market but the one thing I am paying very close attention to is the debt levels of the companies I am screening.

The banks in Canada are going to be taking very hard looks at their exposure as will institutional investors. I expect there will be some excellent opportunities as whole sectors sell off. But there will also be some companies which will be re-rated downward simply because they are carrying unsustainable levels of debt. 30-40% off may be a sale or it may be a sucker’s bet.

(Which leads to the question of whether ETFs need more scrutiny than they have been given to date. Putting two A+++ companies in with a bunch of Bs and more than a few Cs might have worked a year ago, now, not so much.)

#135 BLTandfries on 04.21.20 at 7:50 pm

” in a time of incomprehensible tragedy he is wondering what kind of weapon was used.”

If you can calm yourself, I will explain to you why many of us are wondering the same thing, which is that JT is using this episode as a pretext to push his disarmament agenda EVEN THOUGH it’s pretty bloody clear that the weapon used wasn’t one of the “scary guns” that Justin and Blair want to ban (because if it was then we’d be hearing about it from the media 24/7).

Put another way, we want to confirm Justin’s shamelessness in using the tragedy for his own agenda.

#136 Linda on 04.21.20 at 7:51 pm

#48 ‘DFO’ – suspected is just someone doing an estimate. Confirmed is the number to follow. Plus a healthy dose of skepticism over numbers out of places like China. Either those folks have already developed a vaccine that works like gang busters & are immunizing everyone in sight, or they are lying like rugs over their actual infection & death numbers. Because you know, they could be punished if they admit things aren’t going well, just like the doctor who blew the whistle. Dragged before a court, browbeaten into a retraction & when the lid finally blew off no apology or vindication was forthcoming. His reward was to die of the disease & you can bet those officials who tried to cover things up are still doing just that.

BTW, I have also read some articles estimating much higher rates of infection for Canada as well. Stockholm Syndrome, anyone?

#93 ‘BS’ – my original post goes on to say that we might have done better to emulate Sweden. Yes, cases/deaths might still spike. Or not. Thus far the Swedish response seems to be the superior model.

I guess the question I have is, if annual seasonal viruses have been killing off a goodly chunk of institutionalized senior citizens all these years & no one was worried about it, what has changed? The fact we weren’t all aware that was occurring didn’t mean the deaths didn’t happen. If we hadn’t reacted to this, hadn’t called it a pandemic & just went on like always, would this panic still have occurred? Or would everyone have shrugged it off?

#137 John on 04.21.20 at 7:53 pm

Could someone please explain to me how they can make a vaccine for Covid 19 when it’s mutating?
Already 30 mutations have been identified.
And why didn’t they make a vaccine for the common cold which is also a corona virus.
Time to think outside the bubble.
Something’s fishy.

#138 Fasa on 04.21.20 at 7:54 pm

Moral compass…maybe when Father knows best aired on TV, but I’m afraid those days are long gone.

Be safe all, don’t panic and stay balanced!

#139 FYI on 04.21.20 at 7:54 pm

A bipartisan investigation by the Senate Intelligence Committee has validated the January 2017 U.S. intelligence assessment describing Russia interference in the 2016 presidential election — including Russian efforts to help Donald Trump — describing it as accurate, thorough, and untainted by political bias.

https://news.yahoo.com/bipartisan-senate-report-says-2017-145850378.html?bcmt=1

#140 Dolce Vita on 04.21.20 at 7:56 pm

Here are the daily deaths chart for Italia:

https://i.imgur.com/fypccs3.png

Still but a definite downward trend, also, ICU C19 beds have been dropping for about 2 weeks now.

You will say how good can Ro be with those deaths as explained before, the deaths are from cases weeks ago when Ro > 1. Sadly, a “backlog” that will take those weeks to clear out.

You could not say that if you did not know the concept of Ro.

Why Minister of Health and Health Officer Canada wide should get their act together calculate the Ro for Provinces, tell the people what the number means and get on with planning to open up the economy.

I boggles my mind that all you get about Ro in Canada is crickets.

If they don’t do it, then you know they are either dumb or nationally arrogant. Either way they will cost Canada untold billions in their ignorance.

Mercifully, threadbare Italia saw the light, as did Germany, as did France…the UK, getting there.

#141 Karlhungus on 04.21.20 at 7:57 pm

Debt in deflationary times is awesome. It goes down without you paying on it !

Actually it goes up, champ. Harder to pay. – Garth

#142 Andrew MacNeil on 04.21.20 at 8:02 pm

I still can’t believe people saying that this is no more deadly than the flu. They are forgetting the amount of death in a short amount of time, including a decent amount of social distancing.
So lets say 50,000 people in the US die from the flu every year, which normally operates the whole year. Well, covid-19 is doing that in 2 months. And still most of the countries are locked down.

Do you believe, that if there was no lock down in the US, the death toll would be 200,000+ ? Would you consider that more deadly than the flu? What if there was a million? At what point would you consider quarantine necessary? The fact that nearly every medical professional is concerned, shouldn’t that tell us something? Should we not listen to them? If we will not listen to infectious diseases experts during a pandemic, well then maybe nature is trying to extinguish us because we are too ignorant.
Of course we all want the economy to open. We have all lost jobs, closed businesses. When it’s deemed reasonable to do so, then it will happen. Until then…stay safe indoors :)

#143 JSquared on 04.21.20 at 8:06 pm

#64 Freedom First
Sad time for many people, world wide, and in Canada. Hard times are not good for anyone.

I disagree. What you should say is “Hard times are not FUN for anyone!” Big difference. Nothing wrong with hard times, life will always throw some your way, the key is to LEARN from those hard times and change whatever it is you’re doing that got you in that position. Speaking from experience, as a younger version of myself caught on the wrong side of the 2008 GFC, I learned pretty quickly the burden of debt & the importance of living below my means. Over the past decade educated myself financially, put myself in an excellent position compared to most and cannot begin to describe the complete peace of mind being able to go to sleep at night unfazed by what’s currently going on. Priceless.

#144 mountain guy on 04.21.20 at 8:07 pm

#6&#14
Regarding the danger of coronavirus. The Santa Clara study showed a fatality rate of 1.5% using a test with a false positive rate of 1.5%. I.e good fodder for social media, but useless as science.

#145 Long-Time Lurker on 04.21.20 at 8:09 pm

Summarizing the global pandemic situation as of this week:

European countries are reducing their lockdown restrictions as are Australia and New Zealand.

The USA is caught in a limbo between lockdown and opening up.

Russia, Japan and Singapore are having outbreaks. Singapore had the virus under control but they didn’t monitor their temporary workers which is where their current outbreak is occurring.

Wuhan Coronavirus/Wuhan-400 is starting to spread through Africa.

Iran is said to be reducing their lockdown. About half-a-month-ago I read that scores of members of the Saudi royal family got infected.

Officially, China has Wuhan-400 under control. Unofficially, I’m reading that outbreaks are occurring in Guangdong, Sichuan, Hebei (Hubei?) and a province next to Russia (Harbin?). It’s not over in Wuhan, either. (Twitter source if you can find it.)

I think Canada will start to develop a better strategy regarding it’s pandemic approach once Europe and Australia start to show good results with reducing their lockdowns.

Canada was slow to act to shut the borders and is slow to act to restart the economy. The Chief Medical Officers did the best they could with the novel coronavirus (Wuhan-400) but were using the SARS strategy. (Generals fighting the last war.)

BC’s leadership was good and got good results, but are keeping the economy shut down too long and are causing economic destruction. I think they need to adopt a more localized pandemic response approach instead of keeping the entire province shut down.

Canada’s Federal leadership was slow to comprehend the seriousness of Wuhan-400, slow to shut the borders and are slow to reopen the economy through a more localized application of their Pandemic Procedures. Dr. Theresa Tam did well considering the novelty of the pandemic. Trudeau & Hadju were slow to comprehend and were slow to act (and still are on the economic front.) You get what you vote for.

#146 sonnydaze on 04.21.20 at 8:12 pm

#50 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:47 pm
#281 James on 04.21.20 at 11:53 am
#225 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.20.20 at 11:16 pm

Please do not kick someone when they are down, that makes you almost as gutless as the shooter. Smokey take care,

‘We cannot hope to affect the conscience of the world when our own conscience is asleep.’

Carl von Ossietzky,  Died in Berlin-Pankow under Gestapo custody, 4 May 1938

#147 Nonplused on 04.21.20 at 8:14 pm

#9 TheDood

It isn’t going to be just Harleys that can be had on the cheap. Boats, RV’s, exotic cars, Skidoos, practically everything is going to be for sale. The question is, who will buy them?

We are about to witness the world’s largest ever community garage sale.

But the problem will be that sellers can’t really sell for less than what they still owe so prices will be sticky until the repo man gets involved.

Motorcycles (and boats and RV’s and such) should only be purchased cash. You don’t really need that albatross around your neck when the SHTF. At least with a mortgage you can say you needed a place to live, so it was worth the risk.

#148 Nonplused on 04.21.20 at 8:20 pm

#25 John on 04.21.20 at 3:51 pm
How about dumping the oil in huge underground mineshafts, some of them are massive.
Fill er up. Sucker er out.

—————————

Or, they could just leave it where it is for now. Which do you think would make the most sense?

#149 Dolce Vita on 04.21.20 at 8:22 pm

I read the sources by #6 Commenter and will explain why arguing mortality rates etc. is a moot issue as I said above.

Reason magazine in N. American and as a MSM group they cannot seem to get it thru their thick heads that mortality is calculated differently by countries.

Germany does “from” counting, they only count a C19 death if that was the only disease the person had.

Italy does “with” counting. If you died of heart attack and they cut your body open and see C19 they will count is a C19 death. Means C19 + other underlying factor.

The UK only counts “with” hospital deaths and not deaths at home.

So N. American MSM has not informed N. Americans very well, so you are forgiven but should have realized there were discrepancies on your own. I did and how I learned the above.

I read the Santa Clara report where they also state in essence, take know positive cases and multiply by 50 to 85X to calculate the actual # of cases.

Multiply current US cases by 20 to 85X and use the German rate of 0.35%.

That is till a whack of deaths.

——————————————–

Thus stop arguing moot issue Science, it is not homogenous and instead use something that actually works like:

Ro.

In Italy they have said we will have distancing and masks until a vaccine is found but early May a good chunk if not all the economy will be opened up.

As for herd immunity, 60-70% of the population needs to have been infected for that to happen.

Any volunteers?

I mean, what the heck, Boris did. Unwittingly, put his money where his mouth was.

#150 bullwinkle on 04.21.20 at 8:22 pm

Still early yet, but Sweden may end up with the better results.
I agree with isolating the vulnerable and reducing other activity, not shutting it down. Less money and disruption all around.

I am 66, diabetic and if required to isolate by the gov’t I would. The gov’t can help by covering costs for home deliveries and home visitations.

#97 Oakville Sucks;
The gov’t has an opportunity here to employ many of those ‘sex workers’ who are out of work.

#151 Nonplused on 04.21.20 at 8:23 pm

#30 Shawn Allen on 04.21.20 at 4:05 pm
How to beat the virus

One and only one country with a large outbreak has beat the virus back to near-zero new cases.

That’s China. And we know they did it with about eight weeks of almost total lockdown and universal mask wearing and temperature taking and lots of testing.

And which countries with big outbreaks are trying the ONLY model that has worked? None? Better to assume like Trump, that China is telling lies. Okay then.

———————————–

Can I have some of what you are smoking?

#152 Long-Time Lurker on 04.21.20 at 8:30 pm

>The future past?

Dubrovnik: The medieval city designed around quarantine

The Lazarettos of Dubrovnik are a reminder of the city’s foresight in combating infectious diseases centuries ago.

By Kristin Vuković
22 April 2020

…Across the Adriatic Sea in Ragusa (present-day Dubrovnik, Croatia), however, the city’s Great Council passed a ground-breaking law in 1377 to prevent the spread of the pandemic requiring all incoming ships and trade caravans arriving from infected areas to submit to 30 days of isolation. The legislation, Veniens de locis pestiferis non intret Ragusium vel districtum (“Those arriving from plague-infected areas shall not enter Ragusa or its district”), stipulated that anyone coming from pernicious places must spend a month in the nearby town of Cavtat or the island of Mrkan for the purpose of disinfection before entering the medieval walled city. “Hence, Dubrovnik implemented a method that was not only just and fair, but also very wise and successful, and it prevailed around the world,” Milošević writes.

Isolation and discipline are the two important things

Co-author Ana Bakija-Konsuo, MD-PhD, added that Dubrovnik was the first Mediterranean port to sequester people, animals and merchandise coming from infected areas by sea or land, keeping them separate from the healthy population, while Venice stopped all ships and trade, halting life in the city. The Ragusan Republic imposed very strict punishments and fines for offenders who did not follow the 30-day quarantine law (trentine, as the term was written in a document found in the Archives of Dubrovnik, dated 27 July 1377). In the beginning, quarantine was 30 days, but it was eventually prolonged to 40 days as in Venice…

http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20200421-dubrovnik-the-medieval-city-designed-around-quarantine

#153 CL on 04.21.20 at 8:34 pm

I don’t even know what to say. All of your comments are accurate. Sad that even a “business” that is to make a profit can’t make it a month either. I am not very smart but I am a planner and I’ve always been plan for the worst hope for the best so in times like these I can sleep.

I am also out of work. But I don’t lose a second of sleep because I was prepared. I’ve made it through all turbulence from the 80’s to now without help or huge salaries etc. So I have little compassion or empathy to individuals and business that can’t make it right now. I do feel bad people have put themselves in this position from their own choices, nobody else’s.

I admit though, I am getting worn out from this socialist experiment. This is certainly a glimpse of it. The scary part is Canadians are such soft wuss’s that they don’t want to leave their houses, they want government to save them and their poor decisions, we have no leaders anywhere that have the guts to make the decision they need to make instead cowering under CMO’s and “med” professionals who clearly have zero clue about the real world and that the world needs an economy even to pay them. So the economy, and Canada, are dead. Get used to it.

Government and wuss’s. It’s a deadly combination. I’m losing hope.

#154 Pandemic on 04.21.20 at 8:37 pm

Please see the following chart to understand the situation more clearly:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/200419-image-covid-19.jpeg?itok=IvdHI4Vd

#155 KNOW IT ALL on 04.21.20 at 8:48 pm

ALL FOR NOTHING!

#156 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 04.21.20 at 8:51 pm

The “Stay Safe” meme is akin to dating Jack the Ripper. Our whole secure world like a rug has been pulled out from us. Safety has been replaced by “Government Speak”. This prolonged inability of the authorities to remove this state of “pause” from society is a sledgehammer to kill a knat.

#157 John on 04.21.20 at 9:01 pm

#155 – Nonplused

I don’t think that’s an option?

#158 Entrepreneur on 04.21.20 at 9:06 pm

Have to have proper testing of everyone to legally shut down the economy. We are not a communist state, simply as that. We live, we fight, for freedom! And bring it on!!!

And really, scaring the little kids, what next? Are we going to get another wave or two but properly most of us have had it. No testing, one-sided study, conclusion and direction, basically learning as they go. What!?! And how long have they been at this job!?!

Shut down of our economy while the big stores remain open, liquor stores are longer, is this not one-sided?

I think the Americans should form their own panel of experts, what is there to lose, safer.

Yes, I worry about the environment but would have like to see a correction of globalism, lean more toward nationalism. Also, the news always point out how sad it is in about families, kids in other countries but it seems to me it is okay to disrupt families/kids in this country, double stranded.

Thinking of you Smoking Man, recover soon.

#159 Gretzky fan on 04.21.20 at 9:14 pm

What sort of rates are people being quoted for mortgage renewals at the moment? We are low risk borrowers (liquid assets that easily cover outstanding mortgage amount) and banks have always been willing to offer very nice discounted rates. However, lots of hurdles this time around. Would be keen to hear others’ experiences.

#160 Coho on 04.21.20 at 9:15 pm

The MSM has done a good job scaring the wits out of people. As things unfold the statistics around C19 show that although it may be highly contagious it is not nearly as severe as first thought.

Read the headlines carefully. They will state that so and so died “with” COVID-19 and not “of” it. Apparently it is becoming widespread knowledge that deaths by other means, cancer, heart attacks, etc are being recorded as C19 deaths. Even with inflated numbers it does not support an open ended lockdown.

It is unfortunate that the majority of people are afraid and begging government to keep them in their houses. How pray tell can we expect to stand on guard for thee, Canada, when we’re this afraid? There must be something in the water.

Why is it surprising that many people do not have savings when it is encouraged that they purchase everything they possibly can if they can carry those purchases with monthly payments? Slogans abound: “Don’t start making payments for 6 months.” “Don’t pay till 2022.” “House prices always go up.” “The government would never let house prices drop”, and etc. It is mass programming. People are old to spend and they do. People are told to be very afraid and they are.

#161 espressobob on 04.21.20 at 9:17 pm

When our medical experts get a handle on this bug things will change in our favor.

Some believe otherwise.

#162 Data Science and Statistics on 04.21.20 at 9:21 pm

For Andrew MacNeil (#149) I choose not believe your diatribe either…for the very simple following reasons detailed below.

The know it all types, the terrified, the prudent, the father-knows-best crowd is usually horribly wrong…

The Pandemic is obvious now. That dude from London must have placed the mother of all shorts bet on LSE – London Stock Exchange prior to publishing his crap “paper”, that inspired western governments all over to self destruct to get rid of a more severe flu variety bug…lol

https://www.thedailybeast.com/imperial-college-prof-neil-ferguson-who-inspired-us-and-uk-coronavirus-lockdowns-is-in-self-isolation

Why lockdowns are the wrong policy – Swedish expert Prof. Johan Giesecke

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:

UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based

The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only

This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”

The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better

The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact

The paper was very much too pessimistic

Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway

The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown

The results will eventually be similar for all countries

Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%

At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available.

https://youtu.be/bfN2JWifLCY

#163 John in Mtl on 04.21.20 at 9:28 pm

Sir Garth, since RE is about 15% of the canadian economy, how far do you figure the government, the banks & CMHC are willing to go in order to stall (or avoid) some of the inevitable bankruptcies brought on by the overleveraged?

How far are those entities willing to go to float those who made bad financial decisions?

Do you think the gov’t will pull a fast one like “we’re all in this together, those that have the means (ie: financial assets) should help those who are in trouble”; thereby confiscating some of our personal wealth?

Dawg I wish this “lockdown” will end soon and the gov’t will do the right thing as in letting us healthy people go about life while protecting those that really are vulnerable. In light of the accumulated data so far, its pretty clear who is vulnerable and who is less (or not) vulnerable. The whole thing is getting a bit ridiculous at this point.

Thanks, Garth, for all that you do for us. I salute you, kind gentleman.

#164 Millennial Realist on 04.21.20 at 9:31 pm

How bizarre is the status quo globalized paleo economy right now?

Take a look – you could make tens of millions on the oil market right now. Just buy a tanker and go to market.

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/5dm7mn/buy-tanker-during-coronavirus-oil-prices

#165 Nonplused on 04.21.20 at 9:31 pm

#164 John on 04.21.20 at 9:01 pm
#155 – Nonplused

I don’t think that’s an option?

————————-

Yep it is. It has been sitting there for 100’s of millions of years, it can sit a few more. I guess, because I am in touch with the Alberta oil patch, I know this is exactly what they are doing, for some projects but more may follow. SAGD is being shut down for the first time since it was developed. Other projects will follow. Producing it to just store it doesn’t make any sense other than on a seasonal basis. You store for winter, like a squirrel, not for something like this. The storage is near full now, so you leave it in the ground. It will still be there next year or in 1000 years.

#166 Nonplused on 04.21.20 at 9:36 pm

Trump is Paul Atreides only older.

#167 Yuus bin Haad on 04.21.20 at 9:41 pm

Who’s on for stagflation at 5 to 2?

#168 John in Mtl on 04.21.20 at 9:42 pm

@ #13 calgary rip off on 04.21.20 at 3:37 pm
People should just be who they are rather than wasting time and money on BS in attempting to prove things to others who dont care anyway.

Well, you can pretty much blame our entire systems of marketing, schooling and various indoctrination BS for this. It is the very basis of our current society that needs to be thoroughly scrutinized and renovated.

The other thing is that the majority is so asleep from all this BS that they don’t really know who they are! Blog Dawg “Sail Away” said it best the other day: “The only thing abnormal is that humans no longer accept they are part of the natural world.”

#169 Don Guillermo on 04.21.20 at 10:04 pm

#86 The real Kip (Ret) on 04.21.20 at 5:40 pm
Anyone notice how clean the air is these days? Why would we be in a hurry to go back to burning all that oil
******************************************

Well, other than spoiling your personal enjoyment Kip, maybe the billions of people that will starve to death if we don’t get this back on track. Small example below:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/-we-will-starve-here-india-s-poor-flee-cities-in-mass-exodus

#170 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 10:19 pm

@#134 Oh bouy
“lol, that’s pretty rich coming from you.”
++++

i’m a millionaire by comparison.
because……..
I dont kick blogdogs when they’re down.

#171 will on 04.21.20 at 10:24 pm

i work in a grocery store. 13 years now.

when i first started, i got sick all the time. every virus that walked in the door. i started there after not working much for some time. i had spent the previous 4-5 years studying and doing a few jobs here and there.

i hardly get sick anymore. when i do it’s usually because i let my defenses get down. maybe i partied too hard, didn’t eat enough, and picked up the nearest available virus.

i think all this self isolating is not good for one’s health. i think you have to be out and about exposing your health continuously to the herd. if you don’t, i think that is when your immunity goes down. i think if there is a so called “second wave” it will be among people who isolated themselves for too long and let their defenses atrophy.

if they are afraid to go out now, they should be doubly afraid to go out when the plague has passed, because they might pick up the virus from someone who conquered the virus by being in the midst of it, but still carries it, and is asymptomatic. and they will not have developed the natural defenses to it.

get out and stay out.

#172 Doug t on 04.21.20 at 10:25 pm

We are all rats in a lab – born, schooled in a box by strangers, moulded to work for the system, given a few crumbs along the way to keep us in line, perhaps “retire” and then die paving the way for the next sap – life?

#173 Phylis on 04.21.20 at 10:30 pm

#86 The real Kip (Ret) on 04.21.20 at 5:40 pm Nope. Same as it ever was. Your nose is beautiful.

#174 Scott on 04.21.20 at 10:32 pm

I understand inflation and it’s implications. Could you discuss deflation and it’s consequences in a post?

#175 Mark Moretti on 04.21.20 at 10:35 pm

Because they have a moral compass? – Garth

Here it is again. They are taking a benefit LEGALLY. Just like your wealthy clients take a tax write-off LEGALLY. Zero moral difference.

#176 Phylis on 04.21.20 at 10:37 pm

#95 Sail away on 04.21.20 at 6:03 pm Geta coulda used a direct callout too. Now she is sad.

#177 not 1st on 04.21.20 at 10:42 pm

Garth, look for the study that came out if USC today which shows the case fatality rate at 0.1-0.3%.

The cassandras on the blog are way off base. This is right in line with the seasonal flu, we just have a dishonest MSM following it daily.

#178 palebird on 04.21.20 at 10:43 pm

After reading through a sampling of the comments one thing becomes very clear. In Sweden they are not going to have a second wave and a third wave and on and on. The population is infected and most will carry on their lives. Not so here. What are we trying to do ( and please don’t tell me we are planking or flattening the curve as per miracle worker Tam)? Humans cannot outmaneuver mother nature period. So why are we going down this path? This ends when everyone is infected. There will be no effective vaccine, that is a pipedream. Hopeless idiocy everywhere.

#179 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.21.20 at 11:03 pm

#114 Ace Goodheart on 04.21.20 at 6:48 pm

I see the massive money printing operations going on right now around the world as inflationary.

Maybe I am wrong. Time will tell I guess.
==================================

Yes we will certainly see devaluation in our currency.

Home price increases are not because the home increases in real value. It is because over the last 50 years Government has been debasing our currency.

It is the debasing of the currency that drives asset values soaring.

The Credit worthy individuals benefit and the Hoi Polloi Will have their meager savings raided without touching the balance in their account.

The mantra is to take from the weak and give to the strong.

It is in MHO that this is also the best way to distribute wealth in war time. We are now in a war without a doubt.

We will see the cost later in the form of debased currency and higher taxation. The populace will conform and accept.

For the moment the government is supporting the Hoi Polloi. After the War with the virus is over they will continue the raid on Bank accounts of the elderly and the uneducated weak.

It will not change. Live with it.

#180 jamie bumbac on 04.21.20 at 11:06 pm

Garth,

Another excellent post. I appreciate the input, ramblings and emotion-free, logical analysis. This type of thinking is lacking in our governmental leaders. Be well. Keep up the excellent work.

#181 NEVER GIVE UP on 04.21.20 at 11:18 pm

I’m on the 7-11 wine diet during the lockdown!
Unbelievable but I drink 2 bottles of delicious wine every evening but don’t eat between 7 pm and 11 am!

Losing weight! Slowly but relentlesly!

Enjoying the lockdown so much! My business is down 50% but I am sincerely grateful that I am surviving!

My Vancouver delivery driver has bugged out because he has elderly parents that he takes care of. I support him. So I am doing his job and loving it! It gives me a chance to get back to physical work and exercise!

Life is beautiful in Lockdown!

I’m a happy camper!

#182 Stan Brooks on 04.21.20 at 11:31 pm

There will be deflation of stuff that is not in demand, i.e. majority of the products and services that we mostly spent on in the past.

There will be inflation of necessities. Mostly food, only some essential services that you can not live without.

There will be less money in the pocket, important things will cost more and people will spend it all on ever shrinking necessities.

Labour is doomed, the downward pressure on wages will be horrific and if you count of it/salary in the private sector/ making a living, paying for the mortgage, etc. you are living in a fantasy land.

Government employees could be marginally better but the ability to sustain large public sector in these conditions is not that significant.

The people off the grid/preppers or people moving to a fertile farmland and self-sustainability would be better off. But times will be harder.

Most impacted obviously will be the big cities. There is already significant outflow from the largest US cities – NY, LA, Chicago in the last few years, with the trend very fast accelerating as of lately.

The reason? Low wages and ever increasing cost of living, .i.e. constantly and rapidly diminishing living standard.

So to state that GTA (a city in a ‘developed’ country with negative population increase if you exclude immigration) that is in reality a giant credit driven cheap labour camp will only grow, along with house prices is rather unrealistic.

Yes, we know that the big business owners dream of ever cheap labour competing and working for peanuts but:

1. There is no abundance of such labour available abroad as other countries actually grow and will continue to grow much faster after this crises.

2. We are past-peak debt, with one of the highest total debt per capita in the world.

3. The ability of stretched sheeple, deeply in debt to sustain life, be productive and reproduce is practically non-existent.

4. The automation will render that labour useless. So instead of triggering growth you increase the number of people dependent on handouts.

Cheers,

#183 Sail Away on 04.21.20 at 11:32 pm

#115 Francis on 04.21.20 at 6:48 pm

One bank alone – CIBC – has approved 250,000 deferrals and payments on $20 billion worth of home loans, credit cards and LOCs. The woman in charge of banking operations is frank. She calls it “toxic.”

It that just me that find highly ironic that a lender that poison their clients with debt call them toxic?

—————–

Poison their clients? I’m pretty sure the bank didn’t put a gun to anyone’s head.

That’s the thing about being a grownup: you take debt, you deal with it. You don’t accuse lenders of poisoning the people who are eager to take a mortgage.

Try on big boy pants to see how it feels, Francis. Yep, adulthood is tough.

#184 DON on 04.21.20 at 11:43 pm

#113 oh bouy on 04.21.20 at 6:48 pm

@#105 the Jaguar on 04.21.20 at 6:22 pm
@#50 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:47 pm
I wonder if any of the three of you who posted your vicious comments about Smoking Man are aware he is in a fight for his life right now. Even if that were not the case this isn’t your blog or your right to attack other people. You might want to look over your shoulder in the future in case ‘Karma’ is gaining on you. All three of you.
_________________

more like ‘karma’ caught up to smokingman.
****************

Karma rides a boomerang.

Keep your head down.

#185 Not So New Guy on 04.21.20 at 11:45 pm

Deflation.

I’m saving $300 in fuel every month on my work vehicle.

I’m getting my Trudeaubucks the hard way

#186 Axehead on 04.21.20 at 11:55 pm

“Life is hard, if you’re stupid,” John Wayne.

#187 Looney Baloney on 04.21.20 at 11:56 pm

Lets stop beating up indebted households over their eyeballs in debt and put the blame where it really lays – banksters and easy mortgage credit. It is time to end the CMHC and force the banks to have some skin back in the game.

The easy money in mortgages is also the reason Canada seriously lags the US in entrepreneurship and innovation. Why lend to business and startups and take a risk when you can make practically risk free loans that is guaranteed by Ottawa?

The casualty in all of this is of course the lowly saver. By pushing interest rates to zero and fostering a hefty hidden inflation tax, the federal government and their crony banks have eroded the sweat and toil of the men and women who build this great country.

There are only two ways out of this mess – take the blue pill, keep printing more to try and inflate our way out of the debt, which of course will never work, eventually leading to the loonie and its fiat siblings to be worth less than oil etfs and cryptos are now. Or increase interest rates and tighten credit, ripping of the band aid, causing short term pain while saving our children’s futures. The overinflated boomer houses can head back to their nominal values, while the virus puts them out of their misery. The younger generation, who are broke already, will get a fresh new start. Guess which pill we will be taking.

#188 Gil on 04.22.20 at 12:04 am

#99 Attrition on 04.21.20 at 6:11 pm
People mention the Japanese experience like it’s some sort of scary thing. I don’t get it.
***********************************

I am not sure what’s not to get. Almost 20 years of complete economic stagnation, falling GDP and complete lack of foreign investment starting in 1990. With deflation being one of the major factors.
Japan entered this period as a yong roaring economy. Where is it since? All it’s might is gone sideways. IT took Japan decades to become a dominant player, so it can’t be squandered overnight but losing 20 years put it on a wrong side of the trajectory. Not having enough investment during the tech boom basically ended Japanese electronics dominance.
The fact that you go to Japan is not helpful unless you were doing business there in 1990 and in 2005 to see the difference

#189 Yukon Elvis on 04.22.20 at 12:10 am

Interesting take on things from an interesting man:

Beijing made it clear in 1999 that when it went to war with the US it would be a new kind of war.
People’s Republic of China (PRC) Pres. Xi Jinping then announced in October 2018 that he had begun a “new 30 Years War” with the US.
But there seemed to be no “Pearl Harbor” moment, so the rest of the world disregarded the declaration of war. That was a mistake.
It became clear that the 2020 COVID-19-inspired “global fear pandemic” laid out the battlefield terrain and saw the opening shots emerge from the PRC in a variety of strategic formats. To be sure, COVID-19 was not itself the “Pearl Harbor moment”; it was the subsequent fear pandemic which drove down the global economy.
Beijing could not wait any longer to begin strategic operations — the new form of “total war” — if it was to survive as a global power and to assume primacy within its symbolic 30 year timeframe.
From Beijing’s standpoint, given that the PRC economy was already in massive decline, it was critical that the economies of its strategic rivals should also be forced into decline. That may or may not have been a planned aspect of the PRC’s COVID-19 response strategy, but it certainly was quickly adopted by Beijing.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Is-Waging-A-New-Kind-Of-War-Against-The-US.html

#190 Infrared on 04.22.20 at 12:10 am

Garth,
“people applied for government emergency income support” absolutely not equal “unable to survive a single month without pay”, please stop saying this.
This is not a food bank benefit for needy; this is unemployment benefit we paid for years, now it’s time to collect.

You paid nothing into the CERB. – Garth

#191 Rowdie on 04.22.20 at 12:12 am

#160 CL

Totally agree with you with your comments, and others who think the same. Our leader T2, is becoming soft and palatable.. I have stopped listening to any media news about the virus. Time to roll in the economy, but, you know I think we are toast anyhow for some. It is like living in a bad movie. Alberta is probably done for, oil overflow, but, I truly do not feel sorry for those who were over the head in debt. Other than the fault of the Bank of Canada, delivering low interest rates. Get used to it people, we are heading into a new generation/life, and hope everyone learns from their mistakes.

#192 Moses71 on 04.22.20 at 12:12 am

#55-OVI face
“Last year 27,000 Canadian women were diagnosed with breast cancer. Five thousand died of it. Involuntary. – Garth

Some of those deaths are a result of lifestyle choices.”
Yes, and so are the multitudes of prostate cancer cases

#193 Garyll on 04.22.20 at 12:15 am

Garth,
Seems like the inverted yield curve of 2019 has yet again has proven itself a worthy predictor of a recession. Now I believe 6 for 6 since 1950.
Your thoughts on this would be appreciated. Thanks for your financial guidance and steadfast work.
Garyll

#194 Charles Du Longue on 04.22.20 at 12:20 am

Cash is King, we always knew that. But, the power of bullshit political propaganda over time convinced many many many , far too many, that this time “ it was different”.

Successive ( fill in name here) governments wanting to spend more than they could afford convinced entire populations that debt was good. They trotted out charts and graphs, they had proof. Apparently Ms McKenna was of sound mind after all when she screeched “ If you lie often enough and yell it loud enough, people will start to believe”.

In all fairness to Ms McKenna, that technique was immortalized by another great orator-citizen, a Mr Goebells of Nazi Party fame. So, forgive her for her drunken screed. She was only saying what she’d been paid to say.

“Debt is good”. There’s even a new name for it, sounds benign enough , Modern Monetary ( Hooey) Theory. It states that countries with a currency can never become insolvent. The skies the limit with MMT.

What else has carried over from Mr Goebells, oh yes, rat lines. Government has created a “rat on your neighbour” policy so seductive that three little clicks to 311 will allow a cathartic rush of satisfaction, transferring your misery to some other bum you wish evil upon.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-its-time-for-reasonable-canadians-to-show-solidarity-against-the-covid-19-snitches

Zieg Hiel !!! Oh , that feels good too. More please, we’ll follow because we’re Canadian. It’s a movement. Can’t wait to get back on the freeway for some pent up road rage.

#195 morrey on 04.22.20 at 12:25 am

Notwithstanding what some people think, cities and condos are not going the way of the Dodo Bird. My partners and i are close to bidding on a condo. The owner has 3 condos that were supported by AirBnB $, _were_, but we found out his bank is breathing down his neck. We are ready to make an offer that will shave 140K off his asking. He is squeezed something awful…

#196 Gil on 04.22.20 at 12:27 am

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 7:32 pm
I wonder if the people the most air polluted cities ( Delhi, Calcutta, Beijing, etc.) will start
wanting clean air after the work starts cranking back up.
They’ve had a “taste” of clean air for the first time in decades……
*********************************************

Its been shown again and again, with the standard of living rising people demand more ecological quality. Person that is out of work in Delhi or Jakarta doesnt have the luxury of the golden billion folks, or governments that throw money at them. Not working meaning literally no food on the table. Once their family are not hungry and they are not afraid that first job loss leading to you being on a street, they start acting (not caring) about environment. And demanding their governments to spend more of their dollars on it. Not the other way around

#197 Spectacle on 04.22.20 at 12:36 am

#6 Property Accountant on 04.21.20 at 3:21 pm
The virus is not as deadly as officials and WHO thinks it is.
Recent German study and US Santa Clara County, CA study point to that. Although there are some flaws in those studies, the actual death ratio points to somewhere between 0.12% to 0.4% of infected people, making the virus close to influenza stats.
——— Why not, I’ll have a go here ——-

So had to get my wife in to get some medical,testing done.
– call to family GP. Sent several prescriptions, for 3 different medical diagnosis/treatments.
– calls to walk in clinics , Open for busines, but turns out they brilliantly can now do over the phone medical….really! Amazing, they should diagnose automotive troubles too then.
– take her in, to Richmond emerge, told by phone it will be 3.5 hour wait. ( this was essential medical, the ongoing issue).
Turns out emerge is empty. Just her, and one othe single man in there with a nipple infection. ( I didn’t ask…).

Driving around with my 4 year old son, listening to CBC, same story at most Vancouver hospitals, no regular clients , rate of statistical,weak, frail, etc just not showing up in hospital either!
Something seriously not being told to public about reality of Covid virus . Emerge and corona specific hospitals are actually Empty!

Maybe we have been had here?
Ps: the reason Smoking man mentioned the weapon used in the Canadian mass shooting is that Trudeau is now misleading Canadians ( along with some media…) and wants to imply it was an Asauot style weapon, and take them from Canadians. This is just another attempt to run over Canadian rights and abuse his authority, some would admonish. He tried to give himself exactly such a dictatorship recently, and most never noticed.
Awaiting your reply Butts
By the way Sir Turner, the last few Blog postings were works of art!

#198 Money's Gone Poof Greedeau!!! on 04.22.20 at 1:13 am

Re:#24 YouKnowWho on 04.21.20 at 3:51 pm
The cheaper the gas, the more I want to ride my bike.

Must be something to do with the quarantine. Or maybe it’s my bike. You should see it. Carbon. Full XTR. 19.4lbs. SID Select DebonAir 120mm.

FAST! Off road. On road. It’s a bullet.

0L/100km – crazy fuel efficiency!
++++++
For 5 years have been riding an 80 lb (100 lbs w/gear) delta recumbent trike with a steel frame (Sun EZ3 USX HD). 0-35 kms in a block max (level ground), but have lost mega weight and have finally got some muscle striation in the legs after 2 years of hardly riding because of the fires in BC.
An aside:
Also listening to Charles Adler on the radio tonight he had a guest on imploring all politicians who are wealthy to give up their salaries!!!!! He personally called out Trudy and Morny, now who else was doing that yesterday?
I will go one further and call out ALL politicians who are double-dipping on more than one level of gov’t, which seems to be de rigueur for most career politicians.
How many pols-bureaucrats are going to be collecting 2-3-4 gov’t COLA pensions. My guess more than one in their riding.
We have to have a ceiling on how much these “employees” can excrete from the taxpayer.

#199 Calgary on 04.22.20 at 1:30 am

Where is the best place to put your money to work after Covid 19 ?

#200 You know val on 04.22.20 at 1:32 am

Remember buddy on cp24….”were holding back offers until????” Yup… way da go dude!

#201 Not So New Guy on 04.22.20 at 1:35 am

Herd immunity.

What an insulting term.

That tells you all you really need to know about how the medical industry views you.

Could they not call it group immunity?

#202 crossbordershopper on 04.22.20 at 1:39 am

like i said before the future is government controlling everything, they will own all our homes, they might decide that a doctor get to live in the nice one, and a regular family a townhouse or something.
if private ownership is effectively wiped out and the govt backstops everything, administered by the banks, the banks will have no incentive to take a risk unless it has a govt seal of assurance on it. why would they.
the minimum payments to everyone has started with CERB , and it will continue, i guess if you ask most canadians if they give you a cheque of whatever, enough for food, and shelter would you just live in the basement playing video games for the rest of your life. the answer is probably yes, the majority anyway.
Canadians for the most part are not creative, not business managers, then again customers are cheap and demanding here i find in general. either way, Marx was right, labour is worth the lowest management will pay, and when companies bring back the jobs we will be living on minimum wage, everyone, smart, hard working, etc, educated, no matter, were all poor, just getting by, answering to the masters of the governement and the global world order 1% ers.

#203 SoggyShorts on 04.22.20 at 2:01 am

#76 Stan Brooks on 04.21.20 at 5:22 pm
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-reach-3-000-50-110324862.html
Gold to reach 3 k USD/Bank of America.
That is 4.3 k in loonies. It used to be 600 bucks/in loonies in 2005.
7 times appreciation in 15 years. How much was the official inflation? sub 2 %? Right.
Cheers all bullion lickers

*******””
So because gold went up 11% it’s going up 100% more? Sure.
BTW how is your “guaranteed $2.00/L gas” by the end of 2021 looking Nostradamus?

#204 jane24 on 04.22.20 at 2:36 am

I do think that a big part of the vast application numbers is that it is simply free money on offer, so take it. It is not just Canada either. Here in England our little hair salon is closed down for the virus. The free money from the govt is more than it makes net in the average week after wages which are also being 80% paid by the govt. We top up the missing 20% as we appreciate our staff.

Better believe that we took it despite being comfortable. The application form was only one page long too! Money delivered in a matter of days. There will be massive fraud in both countries around this virus. Hopefully for the next one and sadly there will be a next one, lessons will be learned by everyone.

#205 Fused on 04.22.20 at 2:42 am

Can Albertans do anything right?
http://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/g5r5n6/someone_yolod_a_pension_fund/

#206 majik on 04.22.20 at 3:06 am

If the media framed the economic consequences in the same way they do the virus then they could easily scare people back to work. How about a daily national debt announcement? Or maybe a counter that measures daily unemployment claims, jobs lost, mortgages deferred, future tax burdens. Make the economics scary.

#207 BillyBob on 04.22.20 at 5:59 am

#113 oh bouy on 04.21.20 at 6:48 pm
@#105 the Jaguar on 04.21.20 at 6:22 pm
@#50 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:47 pm
I wonder if any of the three of you who posted your vicious comments about Smoking Man are aware he is in a fight for his life right now. Even if that were not the case this isn’t your blog or your right to attack other people. You might want to look over your shoulder in the future in case ‘Karma’ is gaining on you. All three of you.
_________________

more like ‘karma’ caught up to smokingman.

=================================================

What loathsome glibness. A new low from oh buoy. Wish I could say I’m surprised.

It’s a sign of how deep a nerve Smokingman has been able to strike in these oxygen thieves that they feel compelled to express such repulsive sentiments.

Keep fighting the good fight Smokey.

#208 George on 04.22.20 at 7:19 am

The whole world will be back to work soon enough ,except ambitious Canada

Sitting at home waiting for Trudeau’s cheque

Embarrassing doesn’t even cut it

#209 Stan Brooks on 04.22.20 at 7:32 am

#210 SoggyShorts on 04.22.20 at 2:01 am

11% YTD.

Bank of America said it/about the gold price. Their argument is inflation. Spot on.

The $ 2/litter gas prediction was based on price of oil of 60 $ barrel (we were there a few months ago) + increased carbon taxes. Gas at the stations did hit 1.40-1.50 prior to that.

Of course the virus changed that. It is coming though, just delayed by several years.

As for predictions: They are always with some degree of probability in terms of timing. Bernanke said that all is good with the financial system and housing in 2007 just before the crash. And he is still regarded as the savior of all.

So yes, inflation is coming, first in food and essentials and later in energy.

There is too many of us with too few resources.

Cheers,

#210 BrianT on 04.22.20 at 7:38 am

Latest survey shows 90% of Americans see Communist China as a threat-80% see mass migration as a threat-these numbers are wild because you cannot get 80% of Americans to agree on anything these days.

#211 rudolf Reusse on 04.22.20 at 7:57 am

The Corona virus has certainly brought to light, how shallow the financial wealth of the average Canadians actually is, and how many citizens are actually living from paycheck to paycheck.

Only after one month without steady income, thousands of home owners and tenants were already unable to pay their mortgages or rents on the first of April. But this is only the beginning. One reaon is, that consumers have been encouraged for decades to buy big houses and fancy cars they actually could not afford. Consequently many families have no savings, because they are constantly paying off debts.

The Government of Canada is now spending billions of dollars to fight the consequences of the epidemic, and to prevent that their debt-ridden peasants do not go bankrupt en mass..This raises the question what Ottawa intends do when it runs out of funds?

One can only hope that they will not start printing money when their coffers are empty. This has been tried once before, and has resulted in catastrophic financial consequences in Europe and on Wall Street, It brought the “Roaring Twenties” to a screeching halt in the last century.

#212 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.22.20 at 7:58 am

@#203 Gil
“with the standard of living rising people demand more ecological quality….”
++++

Kinda like India with the largest group of people in the “middle class”….?

Rich or poor, when people realize they have been hacking and coughing breathing muck for years and they get a taste of normal air… I’m thinking they’re not going to be happy going back to muck

#213 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.22.20 at 8:02 am

@#211 Jane24
“…..our little hair salon is closed down for the virus….”
++++

I’m quite sure Amazon delivers blue tint and you dont have to tip the grubby little delivery man….

#214 SunDays on 04.22.20 at 8:09 am

#54 Stone on 04.21.20 at 4:49 pm

I guess you were thinking of Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan. They bought funeral and crematory companies in Spain, Portugal, France.

https://www.otpp.com/news/article/-/article/778136
https://www.otpp.com/news/article/-/article/773767

#215 Flywest29 on 04.22.20 at 8:15 am

#208 Not So New Guy

Does that hurt your feelings? Are you going to be ok? Maybe you should stay inside a little longer so you don’t get your feelings hurt. Poor little guy I hope you’ll be ok.

#216 Bezengy on 04.22.20 at 8:27 am

#189 Stan the man

———————-

Now I understand
What you tried to say to me
And how you suffered for your sanity
And how you tried to set them free
They would not listen, they did not know how
Perhaps they’ll listen now

#217 oh bouy on 04.22.20 at 8:37 am

@#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 10:19 pm
@#134 Oh bouy
“lol, that’s pretty rich coming from you.”
++++

i’m a millionaire by comparison.
because……..
I dont kick blogdogs when they’re down.
___________________________________

lol, you’re the lowest of the low in here.

#218 Headhunter on 04.22.20 at 8:47 am

Morality? We eat beef, other places in the world think we are nuts as they revere cows. We have dogs as pets and love horses too. Other peoples eat em…

The system is rigged we all know it. Stock market? Never a word about “Front Running” or “HFT High Frequency AI Trading”

Why lambaste the little guy when the CMHC bails the banks out time and time again? To the tune of billions.

Dont worry about the debt take all the free money you can! Debt will be wiped clean as there will be a new currency based on something other than promisary notes… thats where this lockdown is headed

Cheers mates hope all are well and safe!

#219 the Jaguar on 04.22.20 at 8:47 am

In today’s National Post regarding the CERB $$$.
The CRA sez the following:
“The Agency is also warning Canadians who received any number of $2,000 payments through CERB or Employment Insurance that they probably will have to reimburse some of it if they are rehired thanks to the wage subsidy.

That’s because payments made by the government through CEWS to employees are retroactive to March 15. That’s the same date Canadians could apply to receive money through CERB.
“We have information on website on how to repay that back. We’re going to make that process easier by allowing people to very easily repay it by pressing a few buttons on CRA’s MyAccount portal,” one CRA official explained.
“We are also looking at other options to facilitate the repayment. There is a possible collections issue for the Agency, there is also potential hardship for the individuals. So we are actively exploring other ways to make it easier for people to make the repayments,” his colleague added.”

As Milton Friedman once said…”There is no free lunch”.

#220 Penny Henny on 04.22.20 at 8:51 am

#124 Ace Goodheart on 04.21.20 at 7:03 pm
Here is an interesting case study in Toronto housing:

This is a million, two hundred thousand dollar Toronto house:

https://www.bungol.ca/map/43.656738&-79.488404&15?listing=577-beresford-avenue-york-w4724057-4077144

Yes, the madness continues.

Last year this house would have gotten about $900,000.
//////////////////

Sorry Ace you are off by a fair bit. Last year that house would have pulled $1,100,000 easy.
I know the area extremely well. Played lots of road hockey there and still have family on that block, I watch what every house on that block goes for.
Hey LP, is that the block where your grandfather lived?

#221 TurnerNation on 04.22.20 at 8:55 am

Well dogs if you want to know the future just check out the news. (There is no news, only predictive programming).
ONE type of plant/factory is being closed up all over Norther America. MEAT plants.
(Cigarette and alcohol plants remain humming along)

We know the long term goal is lab-made meat; that’s already here. Baby steps. As per the news our current recipe is:

Low food supplies + closed courtrooms and prisons = ?

Let’s just say, food delivery trucks increasingly hold more value than Brinks trucks.

Is this all about a virus or re-making the food supply? You decide.

#222 Penny Henny on 04.22.20 at 8:56 am

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 7:32 pm
@#119 Pragmatist
“……supporters of Greta Thunberg: how do you like this dream world now? We’re quite low-carbon now. Be careful what you wish for….”
+++
True enough.
However, that being said.
I wonder if the people the most air polluted cities ( Delhi, Calcutta, Beijing, etc.) will start wanting clean air after the work starts cranking back up.
They’ve had a “taste” of clean air for the first time in decades……

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-india-lockdown-clear-skies-clean-air-pollution-12662694
////////////////

So the choices are clean air and no work OR polluted air with work and food.

#223 TurnerNation on 04.22.20 at 8:56 am

^By the way will this surprise cold weather snap – ongoing – be affecting the food planting season? (I’m not one of those weather mod guys, just asking.)

#224 Lefty on 04.22.20 at 9:05 am

#200 Garyll

I thought so too, but I’ve been seeing inverted yield headlines for years now:

2016:
https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/03/the-yield-curve-inverted/

2018:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yield-curve-just-inverted-that-s-huge

#225 BillyBob on 04.22.20 at 9:28 am

#211 jane24 on 04.22.20 at 2:36 am
I do think that a big part of the vast application numbers is that it is simply free money on offer, so take it. It is not just Canada either. Here in England our little hair salon is closed down for the virus. The free money from the govt is more than it makes net in the average week after wages which are also being 80% paid by the govt. We top up the missing 20% as we appreciate our staff.

Better believe that we took it despite being comfortable. The application form was only one page long too! Money delivered in a matter of days. There will be massive fraud in both countries around this virus. Hopefully for the next one and sadly there will be a next one, lessons will be learned by everyone.

===================================================

The UK Job Retention Scheme web portal only opened Monday morning (April 20) and 140,000 companies applied on behalf of a million workers. It remains to be seen if the money will be delivered “in a matter of days”.

As usual, the brag about being comfortable, yet still take the money. At least you’ve made the association with fraud. It’s small wonder the UK just continues to crumble away into irrelevancy. Donkeys led by donkeys, you’re truly an illustration of an electorate receiving the leaders you deserve.

crowdedelevatorfartz really has you pegged accurately.

#226 72 and scratching my head on 04.22.20 at 9:37 am

BANNED (again)

#227 James on 04.22.20 at 9:37 am

#214 BillyBob on 04.22.20 at 5:59 am
#113 oh bouy on 04.21.20 at 6:48 pm
@#105 the Jaguar on 04.21.20 at 6:22 pm
@#50 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:47 pm
I wonder if any of the three of you who posted your vicious comments about Smoking Man are aware he is in a fight for his life right now. Even if that were not the case this isn’t your blog or your right to attack other people. You might want to look over your shoulder in the future in case ‘Karma’ is gaining on you. All three of you.
_________________
more like ‘karma’ caught up to smokingman.
=================================================
What loathsome glibness. A new low from oh buoy. Wish I could say I’m surprised.
It’s a sign of how deep a nerve Smokingman has been able to strike in these oxygen thieves that they feel compelled to express such repulsive sentiments.
Keep fighting the good fight Smokey.
________________________________________
Here below is his thoughtless, insensitive, tactless and callous comment he posted that was remarked about. Now go sit down and think about the 22 + people that lost their fight for their lives and their grieving families in Nova Scotia. Who now mourn those killed in the weekend shooting rampage and deal with lives lost and have to deal with COVID-19 as funeral providers call on the provincial government to deem their services “essential.” These people cannot even grieve and lay their loved ones to rest with a proper burial. Then this guy asks about what type of weapon was used to murder them? WTF?
______________
#155 Smoking Man on 04.20.20 at 7:10 pm
Wusses?
Bit off topic but been scanning the internet to find out what kind of gun the Nova Scotia killer used….
So far no luck.
Guess paying the MSM is working for T2

#228 Dharma Bum on 04.22.20 at 9:38 am

DELETED

#229 James on 04.22.20 at 9:43 am

#226 the Jaguar on 04.22.20 at 8:47 am

In today’s National Post regarding the CERB $$$.
The CRA sez the following:
“The Agency is also warning Canadians who received any number of $2,000 payments through CERB or Employment Insurance that they probably will have to reimburse some of it if they are rehired thanks to the wage subsidy.

That’s because payments made by the government through CEWS to employees are retroactive to March 15. That’s the same date Canadians could apply to receive money through CERB.
“We have information on website on how to repay that back. We’re going to make that process easier by allowing people to very easily repay it by pressing a few buttons on CRA’s MyAccount portal,” one CRA official explained.
“We are also looking at other options to facilitate the repayment. There is a possible collections issue for the Agency, there is also potential hardship for the individuals. So we are actively exploring other ways to make it easier for people to make the repayments,” his colleague added.”

As Milton Friedman once said…”There is no free lunch”.
______________________________________
As well the CERB has no deductions so they had better be squirreling away some of that cash for their repayments to the gov later at tax time.

#230 Helga Saven on 04.22.20 at 9:46 am

BANNED

#231 RealisticPessimist on 04.22.20 at 9:46 am

#224 @#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 10:19 pm
@#134 Oh bouy
“lol, that’s pretty rich coming from you.”
++++

i’m a millionaire by comparison.
because……..
I dont kick blogdogs when they’re down.
___________________________________

lol, you’re the lowest of the low in here.

==============================

Not quite the lowest, but close. Not surprising he is clueless about that though.

#232 not 1st on 04.22.20 at 9:49 am

Coronavirus pandemic ‘will cause famine of biblical proportions

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/coronavirus-pandemic-will-cause-famine-of-biblical-proportions/ar-BB131epV?ocid=spartanntp

#233 James on 04.22.20 at 9:57 am

#229 Penny Henny on 04.22.20 at 8:56 am

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 7:32 pm
@#119 Pragmatist
“……supporters of Greta Thunberg: how do you like this dream world now? We’re quite low-carbon now. Be careful what you wish for….”
+++
True enough.
However, that being said.
I wonder if the people the most air polluted cities ( Delhi, Calcutta, Beijing, etc.) will start wanting clean air after the work starts cranking back up.
They’ve had a “taste” of clean air for the first time in decades……

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-india-lockdown-clear-skies-clean-air-pollution-12662694
////////////////

So the choices are clean air and no work OR polluted air with work and food.
__________________________________________

Clean air and no work, you go hungry and expire from starvation.
Polluted air with work and food you still expire perhaps just a more cruel death via poisoning of your bodily intake in sustenance or cardio pulmonary issues from the air.
The choice is always ours and it should be a prudent balance.

#234 robert james on 04.22.20 at 10:02 am

I have zero sympathy for debt slaves that bought properties as an invetment.. As a tax payer I do no want to pay for these pigs.. Reap it !!!

#235 James on 04.22.20 at 10:24 am

#230 TurnerNation on 04.22.20 at 8:56 am

^By the way will this surprise cold weather snap – ongoing – be affecting the food planting season? (I’m not one of those weather mod guys, just asking.)
__________________________________________
Of course it will but more importantly “who will plant the crops?”
Without the numerous foreign workers who come to do our work what will the outcome be? If they are too frightened to come here and work we are screwed.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/canada-lifts-travel-restrictions-for-foreign-workers-1.5505579

#236 Dharma Bum on 04.22.20 at 10:26 am

#23 Sail Away

The scales balance. Even karma.
——————————————————————–

Yin Yang, baby.

#237 JM Keynes on 04.22.20 at 10:33 am

#181 Scott on 04.21.20 at 10:32 pm

“I understand inflation and it’s implications. Could you discuss deflation and it’s consequences in a post?”

Ever heard of the Great Depression? 95% deflation. Make the connection? Deflation is the sign that the economy is in contraction. Central banks and governments don’t like contracting economies.

https://www.variantperception.com/2019/03/01/eurozone-deflation-risk-remains/

#238 BillyBob on 04.22.20 at 10:35 am

#234 James on 04.22.20 at 9:37 am

Here below is his thoughtless, insensitive, tactless and callous comment he posted that was remarked about. Now go sit down and think about the 22 + people that lost their fight for their lives and their grieving families in Nova Scotia. Who now mourn those killed in the weekend shooting rampage and deal with lives lost and have to deal with COVID-19 as funeral providers call on the provincial government to deem their services “essential.” These people cannot even grieve and lay their loved ones to rest with a proper burial. Then this guy asks about what type of weapon was used to murder them? WTF?

=================================================

Oh give it a rest. Don’t even try and dress your well-known antipathy for Smokingman in self-righteous moralizing. It doesn’t fool anyone.

He only asked what anyone with any interest in gun laws – either for or against – will want to know. To deny that both sides of THAT unwinnable debate will obsess on the details of this tragedy is asinine.

You may feel it was too soon to ask out loud, but “thoughtless” hardly equates to the venom you and others spewed. Shameful.

#239 Gordie Howe on 04.22.20 at 10:36 am

#166 Gretzky fan on 04.21.20 at 9:14 pm

“What sort of rates are people being quoted for mortgage renewals at the moment? We are low risk borrowers (liquid assets that easily cover outstanding mortgage amount) and banks have always been willing to offer very nice discounted rates. However, lots of hurdles this time around. Would be keen to hear others’ experiences.”
———————————————————-

You can always get Wayne to co-sign the loan for you…

#240 korn on 04.22.20 at 10:40 am

not deflation but stagflation is coming….higher prices, no growth.

#241 Toni on 04.22.20 at 10:40 am

#57 The West
“They privatized the profits and socialized the losses”.
Perfectly said

#242 Oscar on 04.22.20 at 10:41 am

#153 sonnydaze on 04.21.20 at 8:12 pm
#50 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:47 pm
#281 James on 04.21.20 at 11:53 am
#225 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.20.20 at 11:16 pm

“Please do not kick someone when they are down, that makes you almost as gutless as the shooter. Smokey take care.”
———————————————————–

Sonny boy, you are assuming I knew Smokey was in a fight for his life. I didn’t until it was pointed out. I wouldn’t have made my comment although now that I know my thought is, why would someone in the fight of his life be so callous as to ask what kind of weapon was used in this beyond tragic story? To be asking about a weapon that was used to end the innocent lives of 22 people in Canada’s worst mass shooting. Give your head a shake Sonny boy and think about it…

#243 Yukon Elvis on 04.22.20 at 10:53 am

#173 Nonplused on 04.21.20 at 9:36 pm
Trump is Paul Atreides only older.
…………………………..

You mean the Kwisatz Haderach ??!! Who are u anyway? Bene Gesserit?

#244 Sail Away on 04.22.20 at 10:53 am

#245 BillyBob on 04.22.20 at 10:35 am
#234 James on 04.22.20 at 9:37 am

Here below is his thoughtless, insensitive, tactless and callous comment he posted that was remarked about. Now go sit down and think about the 22 + people that lost their fight for their lives and their grieving families in Nova Scotia. Who now mourn those killed in the weekend shooting rampage and deal with lives lost and have to deal with COVID-19 as funeral providers call on the provincial government to deem their services “essential.” These people cannot even grieve and lay their loved ones to rest with a proper burial. Then this guy asks about what type of weapon was used to murder them? WTF?

———————-

Oh give it a rest. Don’t even try and dress your well-known antipathy for Smokingman in self-righteous moralizing. It doesn’t fool anyone.

He only asked what anyone with any interest in gun laws – either for or against – will want to know. To deny that both sides of THAT unwinnable debate will obsess on the details of this tragedy is asinine.

You may feel it was too soon to ask out loud, but “thoughtless” hardly equates to the venom you and others spewed. Shameful.

———————-

Agreed. Poor form and cowardly.

#245 Mattl on 04.22.20 at 11:01 am

Garth are you ever going to do a post about all the corporate and SMB welfare being provided? Seems a little tone deaf to drone on day after day about the homeowner that didn’t save enough dinero, without addressing the massive amounts of taxpayer money going to businesses that also didn’t save for a rainy day.

Also would like to see some content on the apparently solid structure of the economy. We don’t make anything and are completely dependent on consumer spending. What would happen to the economy is Joe Six Pack suddenly woke up and were to save 15% of his income? If he didn’t gorge on debt, take trips, buy cars and toys he couldn’t afford. Seems strange to blast the guy whose reckless spending is propping up markets.

There is a very clear correlation between consumer debt and market performance, one needs the other, which puts to rest the idea that the economy has no structural issues.

Business subsidies are largely going to payroll support, to provide money to employees who are not working. Seems like a consumer subsidy to me. – Garth

#246 Penny Henny on 04.22.20 at 11:17 am

#240 James on 04.22.20 at 9:57 am

Clean air and no work, you go hungry and expire from starvation.
Polluted air with work and food you still expire perhaps just a more cruel death via poisoning of your bodily intake in sustenance or cardio pulmonary issues from the air.
The choice is always ours and it should be a prudent balance.

//////////////

Well let’s see how long you and your family are prepared to go with no food.

#247 Yukon Elvis on 04.22.20 at 11:23 am

#245 BillyBob on 04.22.20 at 10:35 am

He only asked what anyone with any interest in gun laws – either for or against – will want to know. To deny that both sides of THAT unwinnable debate will obsess on the details of this tragedy is asinine.
……………………………………

Funny thing about that. Most people have no idea what an assault weapon actually is. Doesn’t matter what it looks like, it is what is DOES. An assault weapon is SELECTIVE FIRE. It can be fired one shot with one trigger pull OR thirty shots with one trigger pull. That is selective fire, therefore an assault weapon. A non assault weapon can ONLY be fired one shot will one trigger pull. Doesn’t matter what the weapon looks like, it is what it actually does.

#248 Sail Away on 04.22.20 at 11:25 am

#249 Oscar on 04.22.20 at 10:41 am
#153 sonnydaze on 04.21.20 at 8:12 pm
#50 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:47 pm
#281 James on 04.21.20 at 11:53 am
#225 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.20.20 at 11:16 pm

“Please do not kick someone when they are down, that makes you almost as gutless as the shooter. Smokey take care.”

——————-

Sonny boy, you are assuming I knew Smokey was in a fight for his life. I didn’t until it was pointed out. I wouldn’t have made my comment although now that I know my thought is, why would someone in the fight of his life be so callous as to ask what kind of weapon was used in this beyond tragic story? To be asking about a weapon that was used to end the innocent lives of 22 people in Canada’s worst mass shooting. Give your head a shake Sonny boy and think about it…

——————-

Oscar: yes, you were lumped in with the people who knew Smokey and took shots at him indicating his health problems were a result of karma. Juvenile is maybe the most polite description for that behaviour.

Regarding disagreeing with a sick person’s opinion: there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. Being sick doesn’t give a free pass. Using the sickness in a rebuttal is the only issue.

Specifically to the issue at hand: Trudeau immediately used the shooting to push his gun-control agenda. Smokey’s question is on-point from that angle.

#249 Sold Out on 04.22.20 at 11:26 am

Regarding SM and his comments…

I think the charitable view would be that he has an invader in his brain that may be pressing on vital tissues, and this may result in lowered impulse control and other cognitive challenges.

It may, however, be difficult to see the difference from his pre-tumour state due to his documented lack of internal filters.

Regarding the NS tragedy, the pertinent question in my mind is: Did the RCMP fail to put out a public alert because they thought they were dealing with a cop gone bobozigzag? Was the priority getting this guy in custody quietly, to save embarrassment?

NS RCMP got some ‘splainin’ to do.

#250 Lahdeedah on 04.22.20 at 11:37 am

Neiman Marcus on the brink of bankruptcy – yet another company that has been over-leveraged, over-indebted by parasitic, equity-sucking private equity management. Just like Forever21.

Perfectly good company. Terrible management by vampiric private equity companies that suck out all the equity as “profit”, over-leverage the assets, and then try to sell it off to someone else (greater fool style) for further “restructuring” and outsourcing to China.

This kind of private equity activity doesn’t help the ‘economy’ one bit. There will probably more of these over-leveraged companies surfacing to entertain bankruptcy, now that their vampiric owners have sucked them dry and they cannot survive in this covid era because they were already overly indebted.

You’re talking about regular folks doing this to themselves – what about the corporate class who do this as a way of business? To even more destructive ends? This is already costing tens of thousands of jobs. And who keeps the juicy profits? The private equity firms, and the law firms and consultants they work with to manage the ‘deal’.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/know-neiman-marcus-potential-bankruptcy-200853233.html

#251 RyYYZ on 04.22.20 at 11:43 am

#245 BillyBob on 04.22.20 at 10:35 am
Oh give it a rest. Don’t even try and dress your well-known antipathy for Smokingman in self-righteous moralizing. It doesn’t fool anyone.

He only asked what anyone with any interest in gun laws – either for or against – will want to know. To deny that both sides of THAT unwinnable debate will obsess on the details of this tragedy is asinine.
=============================

100% correct. The fact that the RCMP so far has released no details about what kind of gun(s) this guy used, or how they got them, hasn’t stopped the usual suspects from piping up about gun control again already. Never let a crisis go to waste as they (cynical manipulators of the public that they are) say. It’s hardly unreasonable to want to know the details.

#252 Kothar on 04.22.20 at 11:45 am

another $ 9 billion! Trudeau daily emerges from his hovel and at 1115 states at the camera in his shaggy grizzled appearance and shovels more $ out the door to anything with a pulse!

#253 Sail away on 04.22.20 at 11:47 am

#252 Mattl on 04.22.20 at 11:01 am

Garth are you ever going to do a post about all the corporate and SMB welfare being provided?

Seems a little tone deaf to drone on day after day about the homeowner that didn’t save enough dinero, without addressing the massive amounts of taxpayer money going to businesses that also didn’t save for a rainy day.

“Business subsidies are largely going to payroll support, to provide money to employees who are not working. Seems like a consumer subsidy to me. – Garth”

——————

Mattl, I’ve laid this out before from the corporate perspective. Here it is again:

Companies do not save money in order to employ unproductive workers. My company, for example, does indeed have good reserves saved; but, and here’s the important part:

This is NOT to retain workers for whom there is no work.

Again: our saved cash is not to keep workers employed.

Should I say it a third time?

No company is in the business of charity. People save money to keep themselves alive. Companies save money to keep the company alive.

I would definitely be laying off more staff if there was no government subsidy. There is no way I’m putting the company’s future in doubt in order to be nice.

Clear?

#254 Ivan the Moderate on 04.22.20 at 11:54 am

How can a 100B giveaway be deflationary?

#255 Entrepreneur on 04.22.20 at 11:56 am

Same around here #204 Spectacle. Hospitals on VI have very few cases of the covid-19, released, empty beds waiting and waiting for the big pandemic rush.

I think we all had the virus but were not tested. What bothered me is when I heard on the news that when an elderly was tested positive in a Elderly Care Home the visitors were not tested!?! WTH!?!

Businesses around at first were in shut down, then slowly opening with safe guards in place, different tactics to keep business moving and are busier than ever. Probably not taking the CERB.

#256 Lambchop on 04.22.20 at 11:57 am

#254 Yukon Elvis on 04.22.20

Funny thing about that. Most people have no idea what an assault weapon actually is. Doesn’t matter what it looks like, it is what is DOES. An assault weapon is SELECTIVE FIRE. It can be fired one shot with one trigger pull OR thirty shots with one trigger pull. That is selective fire, therefore an assault weapon. A non assault weapon can ONLY be fired one shot will one trigger pull. Doesn’t matter what the weapon looks like, it is what it actually does.
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Any gun that can fire multiple shots with a single trigger pull is a fully automatic weapon, and these are restricted in Canada already. Not legal to possess.

Trudeau is trying to outlaw what he deems as “assault weapons” that are in actual fact, semi automatic weapons, meaning they can be fired successively but still only one shot per trigger pull. Some of these guns (ar15) can be modified to look like fully auto guns, that’s the issue.

Asking what type of gun was used to murder 23 people is not an outrageous question because the government will ty to use this heinous crime as an excuse to ban certain types of guns which most likely was not the typr os weapon used here.

#257 Mattl on 04.22.20 at 12:03 pm

Business subsidies are largely going to payroll support, to provide money to employees who are not working. Seems like a consumer subsidy to me. – Garth

————————————————————–
Why does the government need to pay the salaries of Air Canada employees? We already have consumer subsidies in place to cover workers that are laid off.

And if that’s the logic being used, then the consumer subsidies are business subsidies, as those funds will make their way right back into the economy.

The economy is clearly broken if each event requires massive government stimulus. We can point the finger at that guy that borrowed too much, but we will be looking for that same guy to borrow even more to keep the party going. God forbid he actually starts saving.

#258 Ronaldo on 04.22.20 at 12:09 pm

#206 Calgary on 04.22.20 at 1:30 am
Where is the best place to put your money to work after Covid 19 ?
——————————————————————-
Food banks.

#259 Armpit on 04.22.20 at 12:12 pm

After T2’s announcement today – he has gathered all the votes from the 40% of households who don’t pay taxes, and all students, Quebecors and First Nations.

To solidify this forever… he will reduce the Voting age to 16.

#260 Sail away on 04.22.20 at 12:14 pm

Action – Reaction

This Covid time could be productively used to research offshore banking and shell companies. These are absolutely legal and legitimate financial instruments.

Remember: it’s far better to prepare a year in advance than to be one minute too late.

#261 Gerry Sweet on 04.22.20 at 12:23 pm

BANNED (Sheesh, just go away already)

#262 FYI on 04.22.20 at 12:24 pm

The anti-quarantine protests seem spontaneous. But behind the scenes, a powerful network is helping.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-the-conservative-networks-backing-anti-quarantine-protests/2020/04/22/da75c81e-83fe-11ea-a3eb-e9fc93160703_story.html

#263 Ronaldo on 04.22.20 at 12:29 pm

#218 Rudolph

One can only hope that they will not start printing money when their coffers are empty.
——————————————————————–
The coffers are empty and have been for a very long time.

#264 Yukon Elvis on 04.22.20 at 12:36 pm

#263 Lambchop on 04.22.20 at 11:57 am

Any gun that can fire multiple shots with a single trigger pull is a fully automatic weapon, and these are restricted in Canada already. Not legal to possess.
…………………………………..

Those are prohibited, not restricted. I have restricted since the 70’s which includes all handguns. Short barrelled hand guns are prohibited. Full auto is prohibited. Only military gets those. The only way to get one is to toss a bale of hemp across the the border and have someone toss you an M16.

#265 Deplorable Dude on 04.22.20 at 12:39 pm

So is there anybody T2 isn’t giving money to?

#266 YvrOptimist on 04.22.20 at 12:54 pm

I’m amazed 267 comments and not a single one (that I could see) commenting on the very first statistic in this post. Namely, and I quote:

Over half (54%) of homeowners have asked their lenders for mortgage assistance, like payment deferral, according to a Forum Research poll. Says mortgage broker/blogger Rob McLister in response: “Given 60% of homeowners have mortgages, that’s the majority of people with mortgages. It’s hard to wrap one’s head around that high of a number given most people have jobs and fallback resources…But suffice it to say, a lot of people feel they’re in need of mortgage help.”

Which means that 90% of mortgage holders have asked for relief in some way. (54% of homeowners are looking for mortgage assistance and 60% of homeowners have a mortgage.) That’s hardly ‘a majority’. It’s everyone. If this is true, it is nothing short of cataclysmic. Can we have this confirmed in some way, or was this an oversight?

#sorrywhat #factcheck

#267 Calgary on 04.22.20 at 12:59 pm

Where is the best place to put your money to work after Covid 19?

#268 TLDR on 04.22.20 at 1:02 pm

TLDR – No good choice

] Canadians divided on grand re opening date after ‘the bug’ is mitigated. The risk averse majority are currently OK with an extended quarantine, a vocal minority want an accelerated return to the pre bug ‘good ole days’

] Emerging evidence that a huge # of Canucks are struggling to pay mortgages on pricy real estate after their incomes have been cut or eliminated

] [email protected] labels the predicament “toxic” and just when you thought things were at their worst ] the lifeblood of the CDN economy, The Price Of Oil (TPOO) has crashed even lower than Consumer Confidence Level’s (CCL)

] whats next? – deflation ?

#269 Lambchop on 04.22.20 at 1:06 pm

So YukonElvis, are we on the same page that Trudeau referring to semi-autos as “assault weapons” is incorrect and misleading?
Fed Libs trying to ban semi autos, are already using this recent tragedy to further that agenda. If this murderer took the time to make a fake police car, I can make an educated guess that he was armed with a 9mm handgun to complete the look.
Not sure what a handgun has to do with a semi-auto long gun.

I would like this conversation to end. – Garth

#270 Bezengy on 04.22.20 at 1:11 pm

True story. A couple of years ago a local guy took his atv for a ride and never came back. The cops initiated an investigation and found him dead of a heart attack about 1 km from where they found his atv. They released no details for two weeks. During this time the poor guy died from every known unimaginable death you could think of. Wolves, bears, you name it, and his dog apparently suffered a cruel death too, but he’s ok now.

#271 James on 04.22.20 at 1:14 pm

#245 BillyBob on 04.22.20 at 10:35 am

#234 James on 04.22.20 at 9:37 am

Here below is his thoughtless, insensitive, tactless and callous comment he posted that was remarked about. Now go sit down and think about the 22 + people that lost their fight for their lives and their grieving families in Nova Scotia. Who now mourn those killed in the weekend shooting rampage and deal with lives lost and have to deal with COVID-19 as funeral providers call on the provincial government to deem their services “essential.” These people cannot even grieve and lay their loved ones to rest with a proper burial. Then this guy asks about what type of weapon was used to murder them? WTF?

=================================================

Oh give it a rest. Don’t even try and dress your well-known antipathy for Smokingman in self-righteous moralizing. It doesn’t fool anyone.
He only asked what anyone with any interest in gun laws – either for or against – will want to know. To deny that both sides of THAT unwinnable debate will obsess on the details of this tragedy is asinine.
You may feel it was too soon to ask out loud, but “thoughtless” hardly equates to the venom you and others spewed. Shameful.
_____________________________________
I do not know what fight he is in however the rhetoric from him was inexcusable and insensitive. That is always his MO. Besides his spins on the far right. What is more important at this time? The families? Of whom one of my neighbors was related to. They are grieving so where is the compassion for them? We can all discuss the vehicle of death later at an appropriate time. As for T2 he is just as insensitive spinning further control of weapons. As for his thoughtless it equates to asking the relatives of the deceased at the funeral if they are considering selling the deceased persons car.
Please describe the venom I used verbatim?
Please feel free to post my venom as his post as well.

#272 Lambchop on 04.22.20 at 1:53 pm

I would like this conversation to end. – Garth
____________

You’re right, of course.
Apologies

#273 yvrmc on 04.22.20 at 1:55 pm

DELETED. I said the conversation was over. It is. – Garth

#274 Sail away on 04.22.20 at 2:40 pm

#278 James on 04.22.20 at 1:14 pm

As for his thoughtless it equates to asking the relatives of the deceased at the funeral if they are considering selling the deceased persons car.

—————-

My brother has a combination funeral home and secondhand furniture store in South Dakota. The prices are dead low.

#275 Fabio on 04.22.20 at 3:01 pm

Today on Facebook I asked the Prime Minister why he’s keeping Nunavut under lockdown with zero cases and zero deaths. My message was deleted. How nice.

I asked another question, how are we paying all this money back, and here is the response.

Fabio: I’m thinking it is coming from an emergency fund created after the World Wars…money set aside each budget in the event of an emergency…since we’ve never had a crisis on this grand of a scale its been accumulating for decades. Now I come to this epiphany because Canada is a corporation and all corporations have ‘slush’ funds. For example…condo corporations have what’s known as a Common Fund where that money is ear marked for general property maintenance….Canada has one…its just on a much grander scale.

#276 Deplorable Dude on 04.22.20 at 3:50 pm

#278 James

Smokey lives rent free in your head. Nothing but personal attacks from you. Give it a rest, adds nothing to this blog.

#277 A J on 04.22.20 at 3:53 pm

We aren’t doing this because everyone’s going to die, we’re doing this so we don’t overwhelm our health care system with everyone getting sick at once. That needs to be understood. Lots of people don’t give a sh*t about our health care providers or our elderly. That is becoming increasingly clear. But what if our health care system was overwhelmed with COVID patients and you (the proverbial you) got into a car accident and couldn’t get proper treatment. Would you all care then?

The evidence seems sufficient to conclude we have avoided that situation. No Canadian hospital is overwhelmed. Meanwhile a clear-the-deck attitude (to deal with Covid rush that did not materialize) cancelled various cancer treatments and surgeries. A shame for those people. – Garth

#278 A J on 04.22.20 at 4:00 pm

The evidence seems sufficient to conclude we have avoided that situation. No Canadian hospital is overwhelmed. Meanwhile a clear-the-deck attitude (to deal with Covid rush that did not materialize) has put off cancer treatments and surgeries. A shame for those people. – Garth

Then we avoided a disaster scenario and should be happy and pleased. No? Should I feel worse for the people who lost their lives, or those who lost their houses because they mismanaged their finances? I’m going to stick with feeling sorry for the dead people.

That may be heartfelt, but it made no sense. – Garth

#279 A J on 04.22.20 at 4:32 pm

That may be heartfelt, but it made no sense. – Garth

Cool. LOL

I’m not going to go into a big diatribe. Only to say, the worse case scenario in all our lives is death. So shouldn’t the most important thing we do is protect ourselves, and others, from that outcome? I understand that this is an economic blog and you look at things from a very specific lens. But, I’d feel much more badly at the end of this if more people died, than if more people suffered from economic struggles. My parents went bankrupt during my lifetime. My Mom and I shed much more tears from my Dad’s death than we did when we lost everything material. This is how I look at it. But at the end of the day, there’s no winning in this situation. It’s lose-lose. So arguing about what’s right and what’s wrong feels pointless.

#280 Axehead on 04.22.20 at 7:21 pm

This blog and the weekly conference call are exponentialy more valuable than CBC diatribe. Garth, how about about a television station? The TBC?

#281 Anon Poster on 04.22.20 at 8:21 pm

“How long can governments specifically USA and Canada print money without a massive power shift from North America to China or another power? 10 years? 20? 50?”

1. Hard currency nations, primarily western, US, Canada, and Euro based countries, will print money as a last resort and at the cost of eastern nations, like China and the rest eroding their hard earning savings till kingdom comes.

2. Exporting based economies, again mostly Eastern nations like China, will suffer a second blow as a result of export restrictions and other national security measures by the west with a spiraling collapse of industrial output and massive unemployment with no social contracts and the lack of other means including inflationary fiat like measures.

3. You can now guess who is capable of weathering the economic storm and ask yourself if China can run the world without a functioning economy.

You see the West had already won the war already. It is now just a game of attrition.

#282 Kt on 04.22.20 at 10:48 pm

The sad thing is it is all a numbers game. The government cannot feed and take care of everyone during this crisis which is what most expect so the economy is going to have to open sooner then later. Our hospitals were not overwhelmed which is why we did this so now to get on with it we need to move on. From all the comments I read no one seems to have any money saved for an emergency if they don’t lift quarantine soon there will be a revolt.

#283 Westcdn on 04.23.20 at 12:17 am

It looks like I was wrong hoping for a vaccine to CV19. It looks like bring it on which is unfortunate for me. I can only hope that my resistance to flus and pneumonia continues.

I am concerned about social distancing and don’t want to be a Typhoid Mary. I will carry on thinking I am an inflected and distance myself from the weak. The house beside me went up for sale. It really is a brand new build. I hope the owners don’t lose much since I like them.

I was down about $300k on my CDN equities representing a nearly 40% loss. Being I am nearly a 100% CDN equities it hurt – reminds me of why my wife divorced me among other things she accused. Baseless I say but then I have bias opinions. My youngest daughter rides me hard on my attitude. I have gotten back 50% of my losses and expect more – I am not sitting on my thumbs.