Wusses?

It’s hard to imagine anything losing 40% of its value overnight. But that happened to oil. What a mess. And while that was sending Alberta’s premier into a raging Tweetstorm, people in NS were trying to understand a mass murder. On top of a pandemic.

These are not easy times. I thought about that as the SAVD (Self-Anointed Virus Cop) who lives beside the park yelled at me again when I walked Bandit along the edge of a deserted field. ‘Go home,’ he screamed. ‘And stay there.’ I ignored him. Bandit, too. He’s deaf now. We walked on.

Did you see the poll today?

While angry protests against lockdowns, quarantines and empty businesses erupt in the US, Canadians are reacting in a far different way. Is it our cautious nature? Or all the new money Ottawa is sending households? Look what the Angus Reid survey found: close to 80% say it’s too early to open stores or workplaces. Almost a third believe we should stay locked at home until sometime between July and October. And even if restrictions were officially lifted, most would choose to continue self-isolation. At home, in their yards. Yelling at guys walking dogs.

Source: Angus Reid

Our political leaders and the media did a fine job of scaring the crap out of us. Polls found that by two weeks ago 70% of adults believed they’d get the virus and 60% felt their symptoms could be severe. So far 0.094% of Canadians have tested positive and of those 4.5% died. Most have been the aged, with about half being nursing home patients. Globally 96% of folks who get the bug experience mild symptoms. But the fear of death has apparently reached 100%, so the economic consequences may be more profound than we all suspected.

The virus has shackled economic activity, crushing the demand for energy and leading to oil prices that hit $10 US, then went into free fall – to less than zero for futures on Monday (crude was over $50 a few months ago). Negative oil. Astonishing. It’s ugly for Canada, where the black stuff remains our biggest export. No wonder Jason’s head is imploding. But an even bigger component of the economy now is residential real estate, and that’s where Monday’s poll really bites. The oil-house combo suggests Canadian economic recovery could be a lot slower than that of the States, where authorities (and citizens) seem more willing to let the virus spread through the herd. That may be logical. It may be suicidal. Time will tell.

What do these things mean for investors?

Social pressure’s likely to keep Canada shuttered until well into the summer. Maybe longer. The odds of a pile of small businesses not opening again – despite Ottawa’s payroll subsidy and zero-interest, partly-free loans – are 100%. If the restaurants and bars do swing open, customers may be too chicken to flock back. Theatres, concerts and sporting events are toast. This will be a year without vacations, condemning Airbnbs, festivals, hotels, tourist destinations and artists. The cruise business is kaput, which hurts both coasts. Airlines will stagger back, but the restoration of lost routes will depend on demand – which is based on public confidence (and as of today everybody must wear those damn masks).

In short, in an economy where two-thirds of all GDP is dependent on consumer spending, what people believe, matters. So when 77% says, ‘keep ‘er shut’ you have an idea of what to expect.

Given this fear – valid or not – how do you invest?

First, look at this gauge of consumer confidence in Canada. Yikes,

Source: Nanos Research, Bloomberg

When so many are fearful, the world brims with opportunity. That should go without stating. But people too afraid to go out of their houses to earn a living are unlikely to be astute investors. Hence anyone looking to buy a house from a virus-motivated vendor will probably do well. People on the market now are highly motivated. Capital Economics said Monday houses prices in general will fall 5% during the pandemic. That’s probably light – but still means $75,000 off the average Toronto pile.

In terms of a financial portfolio, look at the beaten-down energy sector. Amazing. Given the economic contraction in China and the big hole coming in US GDP (maybe 30-40%), demand has crashed. The oil supply depots are full. It’s not worth digging the stuff up. The decline is historic. We were back to prices of 20 years ago on Monday morning. By afternoon the stuff was worth less than nothing.

This will change. The economy will rekindle, and the world still runs on oil, despite Mr. Musk. My fancy portfolio manager and analyst buddy Ryan says crude at $50-60 a barrel in 2021 is a definite possibility, once the surplus inventory is burned off. “I believe we’re close to the bottom.” So when something everybody needs loses 100% of its value in four months, guess what you should do?

There’s more. Look at poor REITs, pummeled because of the virus’ impact on commercial landlords and office towers empty of cubicle slaves. That will change. The world may have more online shopping and remote workers going forward, but this prime real estate will continue to pump out income. And then there are the poor preferred shares, yanked lower in terms of market value by central bank interest chops. The yields are delicious (near 6%), and it’s a certainty rates will gradually augment as economic activity resumes over the next two years. Tax-efficient capital gains happen when you buy low and sell high. This is low.

Will most people miss this stuff? You bet.

Will they stay home, scared? Yup.

Will they overstate risk? Guaranteed.

And they shall reap what they sow.

310 comments ↓

#1 not 1st on 04.20.20 at 2:05 pm

The US will burn through that virus and restart their economy into a behemoth.

Canada will still be staring at our collective navels wondering what happened.

I am convinced Canada does not survive this intact.

Kenny needs to take a trip to Washington and meet with our future benefactor.

#2 RobL on 04.20.20 at 2:10 pm

It would be interesting to get a detailed explanation of how the preferred shares market works/behaves. Their pricing seems to be more difficult to understand than either bonds or shares at least for me.

Thanks.

#3 YouKnowWho on 04.20.20 at 2:12 pm

Garth,

Preach the word of truth!

Amen!

#4 Attrition on 04.20.20 at 2:12 pm

I’m not sure the flock sowed any of this, but we’ll surely reap.

#5 Robocop on 04.20.20 at 2:13 pm

First

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 2:14 pm

Timely observations.
With a lot of common sense tossed in.
A shame our leaders cant do the same.

#7 YouKnowWho on 04.20.20 at 2:15 pm

It’s weird that 100% are afraid of death, because I told you only 98% will die at some point in our lives.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gfLtWQ3Kjwc

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 2:19 pm

@#284 Sail Away
“A bear ate your neighbor? Wild.”
+++

A typo, Berzengy meant beer…..neighbor is probably an alcoholic.

#9 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 2:21 pm

Yes, wusses.

For your neighbor, my solution would be to create a 4’x4′ fold-up sign with ‘NO’ in huge black letters, and the next time he yells, carefully unfold it for him, display, then carefully fold it back up and continue on your way.

#10 Andrewski on 04.20.20 at 2:22 pm

We remain fortunate, no one’s yelling at us as we walk our 11 week old pit bulls. We’ve had people stop to take a few photos, so Gibson & Bala consider themselves to be celebripups!

#11 FreeBird on 04.20.20 at 2:22 pm

Sincere condolences to all effected by the mass shooting in NS. I have a theory (and concerns) but will respect the memories of lives lost, those still coping and wait for more info. Thank you to 23-year veteran RCMP officer Heidi Stevenson who lost her life in line of duty for Canada and all officers who do this everyday. Being bored wasn’t a luxury. Maybe a debate on guns could be delayed just for today.

Stay safe has a new meaning.

#12 David Pylyp on 04.20.20 at 2:23 pm

I hope the lockdown will relax the grip on Toronto by the first of May if not Mid May.

The grip on the economy is fatal.

We can get thru this together if we get out and support business and restaurants.

Staying closed for Pride, Caribana, Toronto Races will be the death of the hospitality business.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#13 zloy on 04.20.20 at 2:24 pm

so, is now the time to load up on good stocks?

#14 Linda on 04.20.20 at 2:26 pm

The weather is warming up. I think it not unreasonable that as the weather warms, so too will the appetite to ease restrictions & cautiously return to more normal activities. I’m guessing May long weekend will be the tipping point.

#15 Lahdeedah on 04.20.20 at 2:27 pm

Oil now -$6.40 a barrel…minus. Did not think that was possible. #TIL

#16 Habitt on 04.20.20 at 2:30 pm

Great post. Thanks for keeping it real.

#17 JB on 04.20.20 at 2:33 pm

All of my friends and neighbors are shitting their pants so I’m investing heavily in Kimberly Clark as they make Depends the best fitting Adult Diaper on the market! I should make a fortune.

#18 Yukon Elvis on 04.20.20 at 2:35 pm

My blue chip dividends arrive at the end of the month. I am sniffing around the oil patch. Crazy super low valuations out there. Thinking of buying maybe six or eight of the ones that have been sh*t kicked the hardest. Might turn into ten baggers next year. It is money I can afford to lose so no big deal really.

#19 PSL on 04.20.20 at 2:35 pm

-11.42

who thinks Saudi and Russian cuts matter?
who thinks this will have no consequences..??

-$14 now..

NEGATIVE PRICES

think about it

#20 BrianT on 04.20.20 at 2:35 pm

I guess it would be politically incorrect to conclude that the same guys who have the power to get the price of a barrel of oil to 5 cents probably are the same guys quarterbacking this scamdemic. I gotta say I am impressed with their power/ability but it does kinda make a mockery of financial markets IMO.

#21 FreeBird on 04.20.20 at 2:38 pm

Oakville family hit with $880 fine for rollerblading I’m empty parking lot…prob to keep sanity and stay healthy. Ridiculous and worrying:

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEC5uEdnfNNE7BE1idp2qtRIqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowqeP_CjDdg_oCMMTh6QU?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA%3Aen

Meanwhile I guess group travel by govt plan, in person (vs online credit card) food bank donations and personal trips to cottages are all deemed necessary travel per PSAs inundating us daily tell us.

#22 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 2:46 pm

Re: oil

Due caution should be taken with oil. If thinking about producers, be very careful, since many companies that look like good values could go bankrupt. The Gulf and Russian supply glut can crush North American companies.

Oil itself is and will continue to be in demand. My immediate play while prices are low is betting on good companies that require oil and gas. Asphalt suppliers, airlines, ocean freight, should all see increased profits in the short term.

Who can know what will happen long term? The big companies like Exxon and Shell will always buy oil for stockpile and distribution, so their business should stay active, but at greatly reduced profit if they’re not producing. Wouldn’t trust anything about Saudi Aramco… Buffett has big positions in Suncor and Occidental.

Lots of variables right now.

#23 BlogDog123 on 04.20.20 at 2:47 pm

If oil is at Minus XXX per barrel, can I back up my tanker truck several times this week and have them pay me to take it off their hands?

Now to find a safe way to store all this in my backyard and heat the house with crude oil for the next few seasons…

#24 SunShowers on 04.20.20 at 2:48 pm

Ok, the economy is tanking and businesses are closing because people are stuck at home and not going to work.

So why can’t capitalists and entrepreneurs just create more wealth to keep everything going?

I mean, it’s been said here many times in no uncertain terms that capitalists and entrepreneurs are “wealth creators”, so what’s stopping them?

#25 curious on 04.20.20 at 2:48 pm

so whats the consensus oil/energy sector etf to load up on?

#26 Marco on 04.20.20 at 2:48 pm

Well, 46 percents of Canadians polled, ask for two or six months extension of quarantine.
So, UBI of 2000 bucks could work well as a permanent fixture. As I understand UBI, everybody got one and on the top of that can work . And pay taxes of course. Imagine a freedom not to be under pressure to accept any job to survive. On the lighter note we had to deliver a big garden table and nobody wish to go out and help us. We found on Kijiji a guy who came four months ago to the country and bought a truck.
Working like crazy this days. His cell phone constantly ringing. How to get rich in Canada. See, Canadian dream is still alive.

#27 not 1st on 04.20.20 at 2:52 pm

#18 Yukon Elvis on 04.20.20 at 2:35 pm
—-

Don’t buy anything Canadians juniors because they are probably headed for bankruptcy. Buy an integrated with big US exposure.

Trump wont let the oil biz flame out. Expect a full on embargo of foreign crude entering the country. But if that happens they wont need Canadian crude for a while either, unless Alberta separates.

Don’t discount it. AB and Sk have experiences max pain, its only another small step to go the distance and join trumpland before Trudeau tried to come for more equalization. Bled dry by Trudeau or join the states and get a 40% bump in price of your main commodity. Total no brainier.

#28 Fused on 04.20.20 at 2:52 pm

Garth,
Another excellent post full of great information. USO, still piling in every pay period hoping for down days to a dollar, cheap just like CODX in January. Chicken little portfolio so whatever the sky is falling on I look at buying.
CODX still has legs, pump and dump maybe?
No sellers remorse as am picking up other goodies at historic lows.

#29 Ronaldo on 04.20.20 at 2:53 pm

Yes indeed. It’s bad enough that we have these self appointed Condo cops, self appointed neighbourhood cops, and now self appointed Corona cops. What next?

#30 Suburban Bob on 04.20.20 at 2:59 pm

Condolences to everyone in Nova Scotia today. Sadly, the connection to health care and support for the social and mental determinants of health is very weak in Atlantic Canada. New Brunswick was just confirmed again as the most impoverished province in Canada, and NS, NFLD and PEI are close behind.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-poorest-province-equalization-payments-1.5400170

This is the one factor that makes me pause about the relative merits of living in a condo in an urban centre and heading out to small town Canada. This was a big part of discussions here yesterday.

All factors considered, I think a condo in the GTA or Montreal or Vancouver or Calgary, in an area with such density of social and health amenities, is much more attractive than settling down in poorer small areas, including, sadly, Nova Scotia today. Those parts of the country will probably experience more serious health/social/violence issues in the years ahead if the COVID19 poverty keeps accentuating the already existing underlying poverty. I would be especially concerned about Newfoundland and Manitoba going to the head of the line in the years ahead. Maybe nice to visit, but I’d prefer a concrete box in the sky for my family to a house in a place where the economic and social supports are much weaker.

Stay safe everyone.

#31 Robert B on 04.20.20 at 3:01 pm

Garth
You know after Tues the WTI price of a barrel will be over $20 again…
But next months contract might find its way down to negative too….Not fun for Canada.

#32 Ronaldo on 04.20.20 at 3:01 pm

#25 curious on 04.20.20 at 2:48 pm
so whats the consensus oil/energy sector etf to load up on?
—————————————————————–
Have a peek at XEG now at 3.98. I bought at 2.85 a couple weeks back. Pays 6.6 dividend. Long term should do well.

#33 Attrition on 04.20.20 at 3:05 pm

It’s time to assert your right to freedom. Go where you want when you want, where legal to do so. If you own a business, open it!

Un-elected, unaccountable, appointed public figures can’t use health scares to restrict our charter rights without our consent.

There are so many contradictions in the official approaches, it’s obvious they don’t really know what they’re doing.

For example, the government knows smoking causes cancer, but lets people decide for themselves and smoke.

The government also knows Covid19 is a limited impact pathogen that puts at risk a tiny portion of the population, but doesn’t let people decide for themselves.

This hypocrisy is obvious, and dangerous. If you’ve even scanned or read the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, you’d be concerned.

By all means wash your hands often, sanitize if you believe that does anything, wear a face mask if you value fashion over evidence, but remember that cowering is only for cowards–and being a coward is a choice.

I won’t let anyone, government included, make that choice for me, through social shaming or gov’t dictate.

We live our lives with the risk of millions of deadly pathogens every single day.

Start asserting your right to freedom.

That’s the only way this imposed lock down will end.

#34 Stephen on 04.20.20 at 3:05 pm

Garth! I know this is not a virus blog as said many times, but can you please please please please please, when you quote any type of infection/mortality rate, use “of confirmed cases” or “confirmed cases”. Lots of research is underway, showing mortality rates around 0.5%. Take Canada’s total deaths and convert that to likely cases….its like 320,000. There is probably a portion of these blog readers who have had it without knowing!! I know this is not a virus blog, but please please please please use “confirmed cases”. Its so important. It reduces fear, its bring practicality to the whole thing. You can’t calculate a true rate without knowing true infections.

People are seriously taking deaths/confirmed cases, and going oh shit i am screwed!!! The media is pushing this type of alarmist reporting, its good for ratings!

Infections are way way way way higher than being reported, in all likelihood. Have us might be scared and have little covid antibodies floating around in our blood.

Rant over, also, in Alberta here, Crude oil trading at -$29……yikes, that is confirmed.

#35 Shawn Allen on 04.20.20 at 3:06 pm

I neglected to short oil two days ago despite saying

#6 Shawn Allen on 04.17.20 at 2:43 pm
Alberta Bound… for hard hard times

I’ve lived in Alberta for over 30 years. Oil prices are headed to close to zero for a while and likely not headed back to $40 anytime soon. It’s not because of a price war now. It’s because oil wells world wide are gushing out way more than the demand and the storage is full and it’s hard to even stop most of the wells. Costs money to shut down and restart.

Oil that is basically going to spill on the ground if not sold is not worth anything. As Kenny said, Alberta is going to have to pay people to take away the Canadian select heavy crude and that’s because there is no place to store it. Hope the buyer has storage.

#36 FreeBird on 04.20.20 at 3:07 pm

Apparently there’s now a fear of takeout. I’m very high risk and was down for weeks in Mar w/a virus (no test so not sure what) but since have eaten take out from local family run place w/precautions. We also buy from local farmer CSAs to help support them. Produce is so good.

How to still do takeout and be safe, really:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/beta.ctvnews.ca/national/2020/3/20/1_4861597.html

https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/how-to-safely-order-food-delivery-takeout-and-groceries-during-coronavirus-quarantine/

#37 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 3:08 pm

#13 zloy on 04.20.20 at 2:24 pm

so, is now the time to load up on good stocks?

—————–

The big drop and correction has already happened. It’s not a bad time to pick up US index. I bought a decent amount in this range on the way down and feel comfortable with it.

Avoid Canada. Especially oil. Even recession-proof CNR will take a hit since they have big oil delivery contracts.

#38 KS on 04.20.20 at 3:09 pm

Is it worth getting into preferreds before one has filled up the TFSA account limit?

I understand they should sit in a non-reg account for the tax benefit. Or does this represent a good enough buying opp that you could add it to the TFSA?

#39 Freedom First on 04.20.20 at 3:09 pm

Yes Garth! I was waiting for this Post. Feeding time!

Freedom First

#40 espressobob on 04.20.20 at 3:11 pm

As a global index investor,well let’s just say I own all the sectors. No need to load up on energy when it’s already factored in.

Doing so brings in extra risk many don’t need right now or in the future when it recovers.

Going for a home run isn’t the answer long term.

#41 lookingup on 04.20.20 at 3:11 pm

I wouldn’t give alot of credence to Capital Economics. I remember about 5 years David Madani, chief economist from Capital Economics was predicting a 30% price correction in Canadian housing. He couldn’t have been more wrong.

#42 Emile on 04.20.20 at 3:12 pm

It is surreal watching the deals available; and while I am probably not as astute as your colleague I’ve been on the same page and already have rebalanced to maximize the upside.

#43 Lost...but not leased on 04.20.20 at 3:12 pm

Are you aware of Alberta BILL 10 ???

How many other Provinces have drafted similar draconian measures ???

“Don’t ever let a crisis go to waste”????

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-carpay-albertas-bill-10-is-an-affront-to-the-rule-of-law

#44 Shawn Allen on 04.20.20 at 3:13 pm

Canadian Energy Industry Capital Expenditures

The industry is finally starting to understand that if there is a glut of oil and gas (as there has been in Alberta for years and now there is in the world), the appropriate level of capital spending is as close to zero as you can get it. Sad but true.

The industry continued to add to production during the glut for over five years now. Whoops.

#45 Phylis on 04.20.20 at 3:15 pm

So the exported oil is effectively now an import…. hmmm.

#46 Drill Baby Drill on 04.20.20 at 3:17 pm

Give this shutdown 2 more mths and watch how sentiment changes. People will be begging to go back to work once all the overdue bills pile up.

#47 Network Admin on 04.20.20 at 3:17 pm

In Toronto where I live all small parks are packed, much more people than before the quarantine. No wonder as all big parks are closed.

#48 Drill Baby Drill on 04.20.20 at 3:19 pm

Your assessment of the future price of oil is dead on. Oil is (was) being burned at 100MM bbls/day. The economy will need cheap oil in order to rebuild and grow. Canada produces 3.8MM bbls/day or 3.8% of the worlds daily needs.

#49 O Cannabis! on 04.20.20 at 3:24 pm

i”M gROOVin aLL tHIs timE at hOMe in tHE bAsemeNt wiTH yEW alL heRE

hAppY 420 everBUDdy. AliTTLe MJ MakeS aLL tHe BAd stufF gO aWAY

#50 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 3:24 pm

#24 SunShowers on 04.20.20 at 2:48 pm

Ok, the economy is tanking and businesses are closing because people are stuck at home and not going to work.

So why can’t capitalists and entrepreneurs just create more wealth to keep everything going?

I mean, it’s been said here many times in no uncertain terms that capitalists and entrepreneurs are “wealth creators”, so what’s stopping them?

—————-

That erudite comment has officially established your age of maturity at 11.

#51 Blog Bunny on 04.20.20 at 3:29 pm

Can someone let me know what will happen with the equalization payments? Usually it was Alberta that was contributing to Quebec, but I do not know the details. Maybe now ON/QC will subsidize Alberta.

#52 Wrk.dover on 04.20.20 at 3:30 pm

Drove to town, pulled on an N-95 and nitrile gloves before I went into NAPA. Came out, pulled off the gloves, threw them behind the seat.

Went to CTC, put on another pair of gloves, came out, gloves off, unlock door, threw those gloves gloves behind the seat too.

Went to the liquor store, more gloves on and repeat, for four more stops. Many gloves now self cleaning behind the drivers seat for next time out.

Reopen under those rules. What can go wrong?

#53 Dave on 04.20.20 at 3:35 pm

If Trump put tariffs or sanctions against China….China will also retaliate. Will this lead to a financial war….everyone loses?

#54 BrianT on 04.20.20 at 3:35 pm

The poll results make me feel ashamed of this country. I could even understand if the cowardly public wanted to continue to hide in the basement but that isn’t good enough for them-they need to see that the enforcers are crushing those who aren’t cowering in fear. I couldn’t feel more contempt for them at this point.

#55 Robl on 04.20.20 at 3:36 pm

Another argument for getting the economy going again.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

#56 Penny Henny on 04.20.20 at 3:38 pm

A few thoughts
-although preferreds are yielding 6% so are the big 5 banks (on average)
-I thought CDN was the petro dollar, WTI is minus 35 a barrel and CDN is down just over half a cent
-too bad they can’t store that excess oil in empty office towers in Calgary

#57 Howard on 04.20.20 at 3:41 pm

With Alberta down for the count, who is going to pay Quebec’s bills?

#58 Jay on 04.20.20 at 3:42 pm

This is the lifestyle the environmentalists want us to adapt to in order to meet emissions targets, which are probably still too high as trucks are running to get food to us. How many I wonder will vote to keep this lifestyle permanently.

No vacations, no travel, growing food in our own yard, no entertainment, no sports and no freedom. I’m starting to think this virus was engineered by the environmental interest groups and the governments are all on board to shut everything down in order to force us to adapt to the lifestyle they want. The Feds have no desire to lift restrictions….ever. Oil collapse is just another victory to them.

#59 Toilet Paper [email protected] on 04.20.20 at 3:43 pm

Forget oil stocks. Nothing clears up the skid marks of a crashing economy better than TP!

Buy now or be priced out forever!

#60 DD on 04.20.20 at 3:45 pm

I remember Garth mentioning a few months ago that people do not have property rights like they think they are. Case in point: Quebec police are now telling cottage owners that they ‘no longer have the right to go to their secondary residences’. I suppose anyone with a seaside cottage in PEI is also SOL.

Add cottages to the list of casualties this year thanks to the overreaction to this pandemic. Even if the majority of owners would do the right thing, by buying supplies in the city (avoiding interaction with rural folk) and going straight home if unwell.

Let’s hope this loss of freedom is very temporary.

#61 Leichendiener on 04.20.20 at 3:47 pm

Mass shooting are always inconsolable. And on top of what is happening economically. It was a bright, sunny day today. And many more to come.

#62 Lost...but not leased on 04.20.20 at 3:48 pm

#49 O Cannabis! on 04.20.20 at 3:24 pm
i”M gROOVin aLL tHIs timE at hOMe in tHE bAsemeNt wiTH yEW alL heRE

hAppY 420 everBUDdy. AliTTLe MJ MakeS aLL tHe BAd stufF gO aWAY

======================

Finally…someone qualified to be Prime Minister !!!

#63 Phil on 04.20.20 at 3:49 pm

Trudeau compared us to the”greatest generation” those who fought and died for freedom in the world wars, when he said: “our duty is to stay home and tremble” ( OK I paraphrased).
what strength, what courage, what leadership!
what an idiot!
Garth, we need leaders!
Although it must be said: Trudeau is one of the leading followers.

#64 Howard on 04.20.20 at 3:50 pm

To those who think this is a golden opportunity to buy oil stocks. Maybe. I guess the fundamentals can’t possibly get any worse at this point.

But take a look at natural gas. Long term downtrend looks to be bottoming here. Oil shut-ins mean no associated natural gas production. Unlike oil demand, which has cratered something like 30% due to Corona, natural gas has remained relatively resilient with only 5-10% decline in demand.

#65 Gil on 04.20.20 at 3:52 pm

Polls found that by two weeks ago 70% of adults believed they’d get the virus and 60% felt their symptoms could be severe.
**************************************
Quite likely the 70% of population eventually getting it is quite likely. Severe systems for 60% seems unlikely in light of recent testing results

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/

Nearly one third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19, a startling indication of how widespread infections have been in the densely populated city.

Overall looks like virus is much wider spread than previously thought but also quite a bit less lethal. Having said that I am not surprised many prefer to keep getting paid 2000/m rather than returning to the jobs that pay not much more and in some cases less. So speeding up restrictions on CERB will turn the “public opinion” when it comes to restrictions pretty fast.
And it has to be staged. Start with much wider selection of stores and manufacturing, proceed to services 2-3 weeks later

#66 Oakville Sucks on 04.20.20 at 3:53 pm

The Liberals will open our borders to foreign investors to buy up every house on the market. It will keep the only component of the economy left afloat.

#67 Sold Out on 04.20.20 at 3:54 pm

I’m guessing that the proponents of re-opening the economy are those who would run little risk of infection. What you’re advocating is that low-paid, public-facing positions, with no attached benefits or OHS standards, should get their wussy asses back on the line.

No non-essential sectors are coming back on-line until schools fully re-open. Schools will re-open when teachers and their unions decide it’s safe.

You’d think all those superior private schools, unburdened by unions and interested solely in what is best for students, would be champing at the bit to re-open. I guess non-union teachers like the pogey, too.

#68 NotLegalAdvice on 04.20.20 at 3:58 pm

What’s a good oil stock I should pick up?! Anyone know?

#69 Jay on 04.20.20 at 3:58 pm

#47 Network Admin on 04.20.20 at 3:17 pm
“In Toronto where I live all small parks are packed, much more people than before the quarantine. No wonder as all big parks are closed”
___________

There is no logic or common sense anymore to the things all levels of government and businesses are doing to try and appear they are helping.

In Alberta they closed the largest provincial parks where people can easily safely social distance, forcing everyone to crowd in smaller parks and pathways. I’ve seen many businesses like liquor stores with an in and out door close off all but one entrance so everyone has to dodge each other through a single door, then post signs all over saying “for your safety”. Cashiers at drive through joints wear the same gloves all day, handling money then your food and everything else around them.

Its all a farce, and a giant joke and in my opinion driven by the self appointed virus police types than actual medical reasons or expert advice.

The real virus is the local community Facebook group full of garbage advice and fear.

#70 Big Jim and the Twins on 04.20.20 at 4:00 pm

#10 Andrewski on 04.20.20 at 2:22 pm
We remain fortunate, no one’s yelling at us as we walk our 11 week old pit bulls. We’ve had people stop to take a few photos, so Gibson & Bala consider themselves to be celebripups

——————————————

What do you need Pit Bulls for? Are you a drug dealer?

#71 Yukon Elvis on 04.20.20 at 4:01 pm

#27 not 1st on 04.20.20 at 2:52 pm
#18 Yukon Elvis on 04.20.20 at 2:35 pm
—-

Don’t buy anything Canadians juniors because they are probably headed for bankruptcy. Buy an integrated with big US exposure.
……………………………….

I hear ya. I am looking at 5 blue chip integrated dividend payers with between 5-13% divs. And a few others…….

#72 Penny Henny on 04.20.20 at 4:02 pm

#37 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 3:08 pm
#13 zloy on 04.20.20 at 2:24 pm

so, is now the time to load up on good stocks?

Avoid Canada. Especially oil. Even recession-proof CNR will take a hit since they have big oil delivery contracts.

///////////////

won’t they be leasing out empty oil cars for storage?

#73 The West on 04.20.20 at 4:05 pm

I am having a hard time understanding what exactly “COVID19” is. The death toll is hardly anything to lay awake at night contemplating – it is so insignificantly miniscule. Went for a drive to our local hospital – empty. Empty. I know no one who has COVID, my socialist teacher pension mother-in-law been ranting and raving “we’re all going to die” “stay in your house” “oh, you conspiracy lunatics” …where is COVID19….??

My business has been shuttered, my employees would rather do drugs and procreate at home (on the bread dole) – and for what….someone wants us to be afraid, with no reason, they just want the fear.

Hail to the founding fathers of the free world. The US is waking up to what’s going on and the violence is well on its way. We shouldn’t want that – but what is the solution? COVID19 isn’t coming….a totalitarian bureaucracy is….

This tragedy has nothing to do with a virus….they shut down the economy and are letting it die on their own terms.

Serfdom incoming….

#74 earthboundmisfit on 04.20.20 at 4:07 pm

Having had absolutely nothing else to report on these last six weeks, the Canadian media is in an orgasmic frenzy on the Nova Scotia story, like a fat kid on a chocolate bar. Can we not all just spend a little time grieving the loss of life? It’s just soooo damn sad.

#75 Oracle of Ottawa on 04.20.20 at 4:08 pm

I believe there’s more pain coming. If your going to invest, I would suggest a laddered approach. And I would stick to index etf’s instead of individual stocks. Some industries are going to have a major hurt.

#76 burnaby south gardener on 04.20.20 at 4:09 pm

Attrition:on 04.20.20 at 3:05 pm
…”By all means wash your hands often, sanitize if you believe that does anything, wear a face mask if you value fashion over evidence, but remember that cowering is only for cowards–and being a coward is a choice.I won’t let anyone, government included, make that choice for me, through social shaming or gov’t dictate.We live our lives with the risk of millions of deadly pathogens every single day.Start asserting your right to freedom.That’s the only way this imposed lock down will end.”
1) Nice to know you are willing to be an asymptomatic carrier aka Typhoid Mary and infect other people, many of whom either will not survive or will suffer permanent damage to their lungs/kidneys/liver/cardio vascular system.We are currently 4+ months into this pandemic. given a) there are no effective treatments, b) it is looking doubtful a vaccine can be developed as this virus primarily attacks the epidermis (skin and outer layer of the lungs), and c) we are no where near the testing capacity to confirm who has or had the virus, how are you going to return to normal? I am all in on returning to normal when We can  test anyone who works in healthcare, anyone who works with the elderly, and anyone who works in close contact with the general public at least once a week to confirm they are not asymptomatic spreaders. Anyone who tests positive would have to self isolate for 15 days and then go back to the routine of being tested every week.2) Because of unusual health conditions, I am at much greater risk of dying if I contact the virus. Ran 13.5 k this morning and I will bet my time beat your time, assuming you can even run that far. As far as being a coward, a few years ago, I walked 4 k on 2 sprained ankles and a broken leg. Yes, I bloody well wear a mask in public, keep by distance from the cov-idiots, wear gloves and wash my hands.Beat that Atttrition.

#77 Oakville Sucks on 04.20.20 at 4:11 pm

I remember when the propaganda in 2015 was oil cannot go lower than $75 a barrel. It’s impossible…

#78 Sail Away on 04.20.20 at 4:15 pm

#34 Stephen on 04.20.20 at 3:05 pm

Re: Covid semantics

It doesn’t matter how the rates are reported. This thing is so over. Nobody around my place cares anymore.

US is starting back up and everyone will try to forget this boondoggle as fast as possible. Some will try to hang onto the fear because it provides them leverage of some type.

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 4:15 pm

Another reason not to live in BC.
Just renewed my personal truck insurance for the year
6 year old Toyota 4wd .
Fire, theft, collision, etc.
10+ year safe driving discount @ 43%
Total cost?
$2135.00
God bless govt insurance and to all the uncivil servants who worker there….. :)

Renewing the 15 year old company van later this week.
I expect the cost will be in the $3000.00 range.
Stay tuned.

#80 Cto on 04.20.20 at 4:16 pm

So what capital economics is gone from a 30% housing correction to a 5% correction? What? Really?
If that’s the case then hosing is the best investment going…
It had a 30% gains in 4 years and now dropping back 5…Only to go nuts again in a year or two…

#81 George S on 04.20.20 at 4:19 pm

The survey was a typical survey that has an agenda because the option of “until the National Public Health Advisory Committee advises us to back off on the social distancing and quarantine” which to me would be the sensible option rather than the opinion of a random selection of people that are not epidemiologists specializing in infectious disease epidemics.
Just like the SAVCs that you describe, the SAVEDs (SA Virus Denying Experts) are problematic and should keep their opinions to themselves.

During your career as a financial expert you have counselled many people about investment and how to make money by investing and essentially saved their financial lives. People benefit by listening to your advice because you have developed an expertise in the area of finance. Everyone looks to you to give them the best possible advice for their financial “health”. People second guess you and ignore your opinion at their peril.

So why would anyone ignore the advice of National Public Health Officials and try and second guess them. They are experts in their fields and are tasked with making the best decisions for people in Canada that are ignorant of science, medicine, and interpreting scientific models of disease progression.

There are many ways of interpreting what is going on with CV19. It depends mostly on the testing criteria. The only sure fire death statistic is the % fatality in the settled cases which has consistently been 21% for the last several weeks. About 80% of the people put on ventilators die. Some of the other reporting can be confusing because all cases start out at being non-severe and then either progress to more severe or don’t.
Because people occupy an ICU bed for a couple of weeks there is a potential to completely swamp the health care system and have a whole bunch of people die because of CV19 rather than from it. If you go into the hospital with a cardiac arrest they will put you into a hypothermic coma on a ventilator to prevent brain damage, if all the ICU beds are used up then you are SOL.

#82 O caNnABis! on 04.20.20 at 4:20 pm

gARTh dUDe -iTs lIKe TotaLLY 4:20 on 4-20, the BesT DAy eVER iN cANniBa!!

yOU and JustIN aRE my Bff’S FoReVeR!

AnD rePLACing caSH waSTED on bEEr and SMokes with MJ wilL bE AwesoMelY BeTTr FInanCiAl PlannING donTCHA tHInk? LeaVeS moRE douGH to puT oN EtfS.

Be nICe tO YOur bUDTeNDer toDay eVERbuDDy!

#83 TurnerNation on 04.20.20 at 4:24 pm

Q. How do you lure an animal out of freedom and into captivity?

1. Dangle food ($2000/mo worth) in a trap.
2. Play the sound of a wounded or diseased animals (hospital beds).
3. Use other animals as bait (social media influencers).

And that folks is how a new world order of socialism and dependence was rolled out within a few weeks.

Once you realize that the sole purpose of news is Predictive Programming, you will be free.
This is old old technology. A snap these days:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bernays

#84 Ronaldo on 04.20.20 at 4:27 pm

#43 Lost… but not leased

Regarding Alberta’s Bill 10.

Here is what HRH Prince Michael of Lichenstein had to say to Claudio Grass in a reccent interview which ties in very closely what Bill 10 will allow the government to do. A very dangerous bill.

—————————————————————–
In China, the crisis was first ignored by the centralist system and then
crushed by brutal, authoritarian measures. These measures will help the
totalitarian state reinforce control over its citizens in the future. Our
democratic countries must avoid the temptation to use the emergency
measures taken today to control the citizens tomorrow, for example via
tracking their movements and contacts through mobile phones.

#85 Shawn Allen on 04.20.20 at 4:29 pm

Alberta and Equalization?

#51 Blog Bunny on 04.20.20 at 3:29 pm

Can someone let me know what will happen with the equalization payments? Usually it was Alberta that was contributing to Quebec, but I do not know the details. Maybe now ON/QC will subsidize Alberta.

**************************************
There is tons of federal money now flowing into Alberta. It’s now the only gusher to be seen in the province.

And Alberta corporate and personal income taxes for 2020 are sure to be WAY down. But don’t hold your breath waiting for the Wexit types to update their calculation about how so much more federal money was collected in Alberta than spent in Alberta.

#86 PastThePeak on 04.20.20 at 4:47 pm

As always, the answer depends on multiple factors (unfortunately, most people struggle with one).

In some provinces, and certainly in some towns and cities, certain business could start to reopen **now**, with the right requirements. Some provinces have less than a handful of new cases every day.

There is no reason most retail can’t open up provided that:
– restrictions on number within any given store
– safety equipment & training for staff (shields, sanitizer, PPE)
– everyone has to wear a mask to enter a store

Some manufacturing or construction can go ahead in these places, if the situation permits distancing, sanitize the sh*t out of stuff, again masks-for-all, and controlling the numbers. I spoke with a guy at the Costco line and he was still working, but they used half the numbers with increased shifts.

It isn’t that hard. Just think it through. Unfortunately, most people find thinking hard, and resort to sloganeering, canned responses, left vs. right, continuous confrontation, whatever.

#masksforall

#87 Dee on 04.20.20 at 4:47 pm

Today I was buying oil stocks and I will be the first one you see in a restaurant and a movie theatre! Why, well because a life lived in Fear isn’t worth living. Psychology professors will tell you that. For those that want to stay home, that’s great because I will be more then happy to take your job!!! Run for Prime Minister Garth, you will get my vote and many others!

#88 Howard on 04.20.20 at 4:49 pm

#85 Shawn Allen on 04.20.20 at 4:29 pm
Alberta and Equalization?

#51 Blog Bunny on 04.20.20 at 3:29 pm

Can someone let me know what will happen with the equalization payments? Usually it was Alberta that was contributing to Quebec, but I do not know the details. Maybe now ON/QC will subsidize Alberta.

**************************************
There is tons of federal money now flowing into Alberta. It’s now the only gusher to be seen in the province.

And Alberta corporate and personal income taxes for 2020 are sure to be WAY down. But don’t hold your breath waiting for the Wexit types to update their calculation about how so much more federal money was collected in Alberta than spent in Alberta.

————————————-

Alberta was on the contributing end for, what, 60 years, to the tune several hundred billion $$?

And you’re chortling over Alberta POSSIBLY receiving a bit of equalization this year? Come on. And it isn’t even guaranteed since even with the oil collapse, Albertan salaries and productivity, in the 80% of its economy not tied to energy, are still likely higher than the national average.

#89 J on 04.20.20 at 4:50 pm

#24 SunShowers on 04.20.20 at 2:48 pm

Ok, the economy is tanking and businesses are closing because people are stuck at home and not going to work.

So why can’t capitalists and entrepreneurs just create more wealth to keep everything going?

I mean, it’s been said here many times in no uncertain terms that capitalists and entrepreneurs are “wealth creators”, so what’s stopping them?
—————————

You live in an amazing country. Indeed, all free capitalist societies allow citizens the opportunity to pursue their dreams. It’s not perfect, but is (much) better than the alternatives.

So what’s stopping YOU from creating more wealth and jobs for others? Your comment almost disgusts me.

I watched the movie Dunkirk last night. True heroes who fought and died for us and our freedoms. They are definitely NOT wusses.

#90 Yukon Elvis on 04.20.20 at 4:53 pm

#53 Dave on 04.20.20 at 3:35 pm
If Trump put tariffs or sanctions against China….China will also retaliate. Will this lead to a financial war….everyone loses?
……………………………….

China is in a world of hurt. Financial war might be painful for us, disastrous for China. Chaos and possibly regime change for China. imho

#91 C on 04.20.20 at 4:54 pm

Ive got 6k in TFSA room, i’m looking at ZEO I think…. unless XEG is a better buy. Its either that or VFV for all 6k :P.

Thoughts?

#92 Lost...but not leased on 04.20.20 at 4:57 pm

BC report:

PNE cancelled…

Study shows:

— 80% of students do NOT qualify for Federal Benefit

— Roughly same % of students feel they won’t be able to pay rent and/or pay for groceries

Over 2U Justin….(BTW can’t walk on water because the ice will melt)

#93 Sail Away on 04.20.20 at 4:58 pm

#63 burnaby south gardener on 04.20.20 at 4:09 pm
Attrition:on 04.20.20 at 3:05 pm

——————

…”By all means wash your hands often, sanitize if you believe that does anything, wear a face mask if you value fashion over evidence, but remember that cowering is only for cowards–and being a coward is a choice….

We live our lives with the risk of millions of deadly pathogens every single day.Start asserting your right to freedom.That’s the only way this imposed lock down will end.”

——————

1) Nice to know you are willing to be an asymptomatic carrier aka Typhoid Mary…

I am all in on returning to normal when We can test anyone who works in healthcare, anyone who works with the elderly, and anyone who works in close contact with the general public at least once a week to confirm they are not asymptomatic spreaders. Anyone who tests positive would have to self isolate for 15 days and then go back to the routine of being tested every week.

2) Because of unusual health conditions, I am at much greater risk of dying if I contact the virus.

——————-

I’m with Attrition. You should stop being selfish. If you’re concerned, then stay inside, stop running and, by all means, self-isolate.

The vulnerabilities of a few should not take precedence over the needs of the vast, vast, vast majority.

#94 PastThePeak on 04.20.20 at 5:00 pm

#24 SunShowers on 04.20.20 at 2:48 pm
Ok, the economy is tanking and businesses are closing because people are stuck at home and not going to work.

So why can’t capitalists and entrepreneurs just create more wealth to keep everything going?

I mean, it’s been said here many times in no uncertain terms that capitalists and entrepreneurs are “wealth creators”, so what’s stopping them?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Some are. Multiple businesses in our area are out hustling & bustling to increase their service offerings for delivery, create meal kits, alcohol delivery, selling masks, etc. My son (17) got a job in delivery and is making much more than the job he lost in retail.

Strangely, nothing innovative or helpful from the government in terms of services. Unless you include handing out ridiculous fines to solo people or families spending 5 minutes in a park, minding their own business away from everyone else.

But sure Sun, you are right, individual business and companies just can’t compete with the genius of Trudeau and big government…

#95 BrianT on 04.20.20 at 5:06 pm

#76Burnaby-I just checked the records and as far as I can see nobody died and made you Queen of England-so here is some free advice-how about you mind your own business and let other adults in a “free” country mind their own business.

#96 Ejeff on 04.20.20 at 5:06 pm

The MSM sure did and continues to so a great job scaring people. I was having a hard time understanding why governments would want to shut down economies. After watching this video which is quite long I now understand. The end goal is mandatory vaccinations. This will guarantee big pharma trillions in profits year after year. I encourage you to watch it is very enlightening as to how the system works.

LINK DELETED. No anti-vaxxers welcome here. – Garth

#97 Toronto_CA on 04.20.20 at 5:09 pm

I really, really dislike that Garth is yelled at by a cop to go home when he’s walking Bandit. I live in London (UK) now and when I walk around the City for my daily exercise/sunshine I have been stopped by cops randomly.

Don’t these cops have better things to do than harrass lone men walking in broad daylight? The loss of civil liberties concerns me greatly. It would be one thing if we were loitering in a group, but surely one on a walk (or walking a dog) is insane to use government resources to harass.

This kind of oppression needs to stop or they will deal with civic unrest, if rationale, law-abiding professionals start to feel like it’s time to protest the over zealous police.

In other news, I’ve bought a ton of oil stocks, so I am hoping for the rebound in prices.

Garth – could all of this lead to DE-flation, with demand dropping in unprecedented terms and a global recession in the cards? I know we feared it after the GFC.

#98 JonBoy on 04.20.20 at 5:09 pm

#67 Sold Out on 04.20.20 at 3:54 pm

You’d think all those superior private schools, unburdened by unions and interested solely in what is best for students, would be champing at the bit to re-open. I guess non-union teachers like the pogey, too.

—-

My children attend a private school. They were up and running (online) as scheduled when spring break was over. They didn’t lose a single day and ALL teachers are taking classes, same as usual. This same school is being used as the model for the Ministry of Education in BC for how to conduct online classes and get student learning maximized.

They want to open as soon as they can but they are following directions from BC Health Authority as to when that will be. No one expects anything to re-open before September but in a parent/teacher online meeting the other day, they said that they are prepared to open as soon as they are allowed.

#99 Nixter on 04.20.20 at 5:10 pm

A vaccine forget about it.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/don-t-count-a-covid-19-vaccine-for-at-least-five-years-says-ai-based-forecast
Yeah with a 5% efficacy.

If your sick stay home, if your afraid stay home.
Those of us who know how to live, go out for fresh air, sun, and talk to people.
We don’t live in bubbles, and that six feet under distancing isn’t for health.
It’s to keep us in control, they don’t want us gathering to protest.

#100 Sail Away on 04.20.20 at 5:10 pm

#72 Penny Henny on 04.20.20 at 4:02 pm
#37 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 3:08 pm
#13 zloy on 04.20.20 at 2:24 pm

so, is now the time to load up on good stocks?

—————

Avoid Canada. Especially oil. Even recession-proof CNR will take a hit since they have big oil delivery contracts.

—————

won’t they be leasing out empty oil cars for storage?

—————

Unlikely. Oil storage is strictly regulated differently than transport.

#101 Attrition on 04.20.20 at 5:14 pm

#76 burnaby south gardener on 04.20.20 at 4:09 pm

Attrition:on 04.20.20 at 3:05 pm
…”By all means wash your hands often, sanitize if you believe that does anything, wear a face mask if you value fashion over evidence, but remember that cowering is only for cowards–and being a coward is a choice.I won’t let anyone, government included, make that choice for me, through social shaming or gov’t dictate.We live our lives with the risk of millions of deadly pathogens every single day.Start asserting your right to freedom.That’s the only way this imposed lock down will end.”

1) Nice to know you are willing to be an asymptomatic carrier aka Typhoid Mary and infect other people….Yes, I bloody well wear a mask in public, keep by distance from the cov-idiots, wear gloves and wash my hands.Beat that Atttrition.

Easy.

You’re one of the weakened.

Stay home, stay away, stay well.

It is simpler, safer, smarter and more economical for the sickly to stay home rather than the healthy. How can anyone argue otherwise?

And regarding freedom of movement, why should you get to choose for me? Can I tell you to go out and take risks? No.

Nor should you get to tell me not to. I don’t need anyone’s permission to live my life (least of all the cowering).

As for asymptomatic carriers, well, that could apply to many deadly pathogens. Why choose just this one to try to shame and control people?

Sadly, I agree there are covidiots in this scamdemic.

But they’re not who you think they are. Find the nearest mirror, and take a good long look.

You’ll see one staring back.

It’s over.

#102 PastThePeak on 04.20.20 at 5:16 pm

#96 Ejeff on 04.20.20 at 5:06 pm
The MSM sure did and continues to so a great job scaring people. I was having a hard time understanding why governments would want to shut down economies. After watching this video which is quite long I now understand. The end goal is mandatory vaccinations. This will guarantee big pharma trillions in profits year after year. I encourage you to watch it is very enlightening as to how the system works.

LINK DELETED. No anti-vaxxers welcome here. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ejeff, the money in pharma is **NOT** in vaccines. It is in ongoing treatments. Vaccines (outside of the flu) are administered once, or perhaps every decade. Purchased on mass by governments in many countries, or small amounts per dose.

Your whole conspiracy theory doesn’t even get to the smell test. Ignorance beyond belief…

#103 south slope gardener on 04.20.20 at 5:18 pm

Sail Away on 04.20.20 at 4:58 pm

You again miss several points.
1) The overwhelming majority of the people infected with covid 19 are ASYMPTOMATIC. That means they can infect OTHER people without showing any symptoms. For example someone who works in a long term care home.
So 2) I *am* staying away from people as much as  possible – starting my runs before 6 am.

3) As I stated previously, I AM in favour of opening up those business where it is possible but with the regular testing mentioned in my first post. 

#104 macduff on 04.20.20 at 5:21 pm

I guess the “summer” gas will be cheaper this year.

#105 Marco on 04.20.20 at 5:22 pm

Well, Andre Malraux (I do not expect that you know who he was, same as you do not know who that guy whose sculpture is in front of Concordia Uni, was ), in his book of memoirs he said that The West had plans to bomb 50 industrial cities in China if China become too dangerous and push them beck that way. But then western corporations discover how to make more using China. So now The West can confront China and ask for payment for this disaster, mandatory relocate corporations back home. Well to get money itself obviously will not be enough. They will squander the money, same as they squandered Empire, but alternative is that all of us will wear masks and our wages will look more like Chinese wages. And accordingly or diet will diversify, including bats….

#106 bob on 04.20.20 at 5:24 pm

So Garth, do you think enough businesses will survive until Canadian’s perception changes?

If not, won’t that lead to a myriad of bankruptcies in the next 3-6 months? And in turn, won’t that become structural as opposed to temporary? I mean, after a year, I don’t see hospitality and retail returning anywhere near peaks of 2019.

Even large-scale small business failures would not show up in GDP numbers nor in equity markets. But it would be a human tragedy. – Garth

#107 Attrition on 04.20.20 at 5:25 pm

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 4:15 pm
Another reason not to live in BC.
Just renewed my personal truck insurance for the year
6 year old Toyota 4wd .
Fire, theft, collision, etc.
10+ year safe driving discount @ 43%
Total cost?
$2135.00
God bless govt insurance and to all the uncivil servants who worker there….. :)

That’s not because you live in BC.

That’s because you live in the Lower Brainland, I assume.

I live in BC.

My insurance is 1/3 of that on a comparable vehicle and same 43% discount.

Not defending the ‘Corproration, but when you live in the YVR rats nest, you gotta pay to poo.

#108 bob on 04.20.20 at 5:34 pm

Even large-scale small business failures would not show up in GDP numbers nor in equity markets. But it would be a human tragedy. – Garth

But if businesses close, layoffs happen. If retail sales lag 20%, then that could be 20% more layoffs. We may see more automation, more online sales. Good for IT and engineers. Aren’t we going to see high unemployment.. for at least a year if not longer? Who is going to pick up the retail space once someone shutters their door?

#109 GB on 04.20.20 at 5:34 pm

Garth, what is the best ETF, in your opinion, to go long on oil in?

#110 Gil on 04.20.20 at 5:40 pm

I remember last month on this site there were folks recommending to buy oil because it fell so much.

How about them apples?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/oil-markets-us-crude-futures-in-focus-as-coronavirus-dents-demand.html

West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery fell more than 100% to settle at negative $37.63 per barrel, meaning producers would pay traders to take the oil off their hands

It’s a futures contract. Don’t get overly excited. – Garth

#111 George on 04.20.20 at 5:40 pm

Serious question – are people surprised with those Canadian polling results ?

C’mon folks , Canada is a munchkin and always will be. What’s important TO Canada is what happens south .They sneeze we hurl

Keep your fingers crossed frieghtend Canadians

#112 Nonplused on 04.20.20 at 5:41 pm

This article explains WTH happened today:

https://boereport.com/2020/04/20/oil-crashes-ends-negative-for-the-first-time-in-history/

The problem is with storage full even as demand returns (assuming it does) it will take a long time to get back to normal operating ranges. On the other hand it would be a good time for Trump to fill up the strategic petroleum reserve as he will be getting paid to do it. He was going to fill it up to support oil prices before but the house wouldn’t give him the money. Now there is no excuse really.

Here is why the meat aisle at Co-Op got ransacked:

https://www.activistpost.com/2020/04/meat-prices-suddenly-surge-as-food-processing-plants-shut-down-with-1000s-of-tons-left-to-spoil.html?utm_source=Activist+Post+Subscribers&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=64e3f169c0-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_term=0_b0c7fb76bd-64e3f169c0-388338759

I doesn’t take too much extrapolation to assume that other types of food processing are not immune to shutdowns. I should have bought more Spam.

And here is more fear-mongering about the effects of all this:

https://boereport.com/2020/04/20/column-what-about-the-other-99/

This may be why Trump seems so much more willing to gamble with lives rather than risk permanent damage to the economy. It is perhaps a question worth asking. Lots of people die trying to earn a living without covid. We risk dying every day we get out of bed and even some days where we don’t.

Anyway it is looking more and more to me like this thing is going to take a very long time to sort out. Alberta especially may experience something like a depression. The oil jobs are not coming back for years. And until they do the other jobs won’t come back either. And once all the small businesses go bankrupt, who is going to restart them? All eyes will be on the previous operator but he is getting wiped out.

#113 -=withwings=- on 04.20.20 at 5:42 pm

As I understand UBI, everybody got one and on the top of that can work . And pay taxes of course. Imagine a freedom not to be under pressure to accept any job to survive.

You don’t understand UBI, the concept, or the reality. at all. Keep guessing though. (hint: Canada already has a UBI system, it’s broken, inefficient and incredibly expensive to maintain….)


For example, the government knows smoking causes cancer, but lets people decide for themselves and smoke.

The government also knows Covid19 is a limited impact pathogen that puts at risk a tiny portion of the population, but doesn’t let people decide for themselves.

This hypocrisy is obvious, and dangerous. If you’ve even scanned or read the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, you’d be concerned.

.

Good grief. Second hand smoke can kill others that why the government banned smoking almost everywhere. You want to kill yourself, go ahead, but don’t light up where you can hurt others. Covid is second-hand smoke. Tell you what, you are free to go anywhere you want but cant go anywhere where smoking is banned. zero hypocrisy there, right? Go ahead. Go to the…nowhere.

Are you aware of Alberta BILL 10 ???

How many other Provinces have drafted similar draconian measures ???

“Don’t ever let a crisis go to waste”????

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-carpay-albertas-bill-10-is-an-affront-to-the-rule-of-law
Conservative governments good, liberal governments bad. Always. therefore, this is good and you should be thankful.


Ok, the economy is tanking and businesses are closing because people are stuck at home and not going to work.

So why can’t capitalists and entrepreneurs just create more wealth to keep everything going?

I mean, it’s been said here many times in no uncertain terms that capitalists and entrepreneurs are “wealth creators”, so what’s stopping them?

—————-

That erudite comment has officially established your age of maturity at 11.

yeah we all need to just pick ourselve up by the bootstraps and work hard!

The Liberals will open our borders to foreign investors to buy up every house on the market. It will keep the only component of the economy left afloat.

its never been closed, but where are the ‘foreigners’ going to get the money when their own economy is tanking too?


I am having a hard time understanding what exactly “COVID19” is.

Fortunately, others do, like doctors and microbiologists. no one expects you to understand. Stay inside.

I can’t even get through the rest of these nonsense conspiracy theory postings….

#114 Doug t on 04.20.20 at 5:43 pm

Population boom?
Increased alcoholism?
Increase in mental health illness?
Suicides up?
Violence and domestic abuse up?
Bankruptcies up?
Government control / police state control up?
Bank fees and taxes up?
.60 cent dollar?
Lost generation?

Did I miss anything ? Please add to list

#115 JSS on 04.20.20 at 5:45 pm

It’s a great time to buy:

– Canadian Natural Resources
– Suncor
– Imperial Oil
– Exxon Mobil
– Royal Dutch Shell

Or an ETF like XEG.

I’m not an oil guy, but if it’s this cheap and planning to hold for a long time…

#116 butter upon bacon on 04.20.20 at 5:45 pm

What are the odds Trudeau directly bails out homeowners if the market starts falling?

You’re underwater? No worries feds will cover this difference. Can anyone give a math/finance based answer as to why this couldn’t happen?

#117 jsto on 04.20.20 at 5:46 pm

So far nothing much felt in the economy… other than gas gone so much cheaper… I’d like to see a real effect due to this unprecedented shock – houses down 30-40% for one…

#118 Penny Henny on 04.20.20 at 5:47 pm

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 4:15 pm
Another reason not to live in BC.
Just renewed my personal truck insurance for the year
6 year old Toyota 4wd .
Fire, theft, collision, etc.
10+ year safe driving discount @ 43%
Total cost?
$2135.00
//////////////////////

2017 Mustang Conv
2018 Ford Escape
full coverage on both
12 and 18 km/yr
pleasure use only
$1350/yr combined.

I guess you win :)

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 5:51 pm

@#82 O caNnABis!

+++++

dO yOu HAve tO gET TotaLLY riPPed on sAtiVa to tYpe LIKe thIS?

#120 canuck on 04.20.20 at 5:52 pm

I think those polls are a crock. Turn off the taps of fed money and see how fast people want to go back to work.

The inmates in America are getting tired and edgy. They will open up for business sooner than we think and Canada will get swallowed up.

Sweden has the right strategy. Let ‘er buck and let the herd immunity develop so there won’t be a 2nd surge like what will be felt in North America.

#121 Penny Henny on 04.20.20 at 5:53 pm

Hey ITCHY (tractor guy)

here’s an idea for you.
swap out snow tires for summer tires, door to door.
drive down the road and see a car with the steelies on and let them know you’ll swap em out for $50.

Battery powered impact gun, floor jack and you’re golden

#122 butter upon bacon on 04.20.20 at 5:53 pm

#109 JSS on 04.20.20 at 5:45 pm

I like Exxon and I have a small stake in them but they haven’t dropped much since the 3rd week of march when they bottomed and rallied. 5% drop on today’s news.

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 5:54 pm

@#107 Attrition
“but when you live in the YVR rats nest, you gotta pay to poo.”
+++

True enough. The Lower brainland it is……..subsidizing Maserati’s with Learners permits…….

#124 n1tro on 04.20.20 at 5:54 pm

#22 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 2:46 pm
Re: oil
—–

Wouldn’t a better play be companies that can store the oil glut? Maybe shipping companies with a large fleet of oil tankers because the oil has to go somewhere eventually so they make money for storage and then shipping.

#125 Reality is stark on 04.20.20 at 5:55 pm

Why don’t we try a little logic.
Oil is toast and we export lots of oil.
A bungalow in Toronto is worth 5 times family income (approximately $300,000).
You won’t be able to borrow against your house again to finance a car or your kid’s wedding or education.
You won’t get a Heloc for a reno.
So where is this mythical economy everyone talks about?
It does not exist.
There will be an enormous outcry in this country when you try to get people back to work.
The will is not there. The will to keep collecting $2000.00 a month in this country is alive and well. There is also a strong belief in not paying rent as there is strong anticipation of rents receding and plenty of places coming to the market. There is virtually no immigration and lots of new housing supply hitting the market.
You may have the mistaken belief that socialists have scruples and integrity, they have neither.
Keep your doors locked.

#126 BrianT on 04.20.20 at 5:59 pm

Georgia becomes first US state to open (with major criticism from the MSM and conformist sheep)-good news of the day.

#127 Nicolas on 04.20.20 at 6:00 pm

Few people got the disease, so… shelter-in-place worked?

Circular reasoning festival today.

#128 TurnerNation on 04.20.20 at 6:03 pm

Why would our rulers close their amazing money making Sports franchises? Because those empty stadiums will be where you go and lineup for your mandatory.
They will be kept closed until this time.

Might as well spend all ya got? Funny money.
The last year, Bank of Canada developed a Digital currency.
Today they killed the petro dollar.

https://www.digitaldollarproject.org/

The time has come to explore options for a digital dollar, and the principal members of the Digital Dollar Foundation (The Foundation) have sounded the call for this needed dollar innovation. Together with Accenture, a global leader in CBDC advancement, the Foundation has formed the “Digital Dollar Project” (the Project) to study potential avenues to utilize U.S. digital dollar tokenization and its implications on the U.S. and global economic and financial systems.

#129 Lost...but not leased on 04.20.20 at 6:10 pm

Garth posted a photo a while back re: person in SCUBA outfit and air tank at a supermarket.

In essence…via example..this would create self- contained/self -sufficient/self -isolating homo sapiens that could then go back and sustain/retain the economy.

Why hasn’t T2 simply legislated and thus ramped up production of the aforementioned, and thus allow us humble tax – slave peons to go back to some semblance of normal ?

#130 JohnAB on 04.20.20 at 6:12 pm

#113 jsto on 04.20.20 at 5:46 pm

Don’t think that’s gonna happen. The only thing that can influence the prices is the availability of the credit. If the banks decide to tighten the rules of granting loans, you will see a decline in the prices. As a reference you can take the 2017 year and the stress test. By adding a 2% stress test on top of the mortgage interest you could see prices going down quite a little bit. Now consider from one side that there are people losing jobs and some businesses close forever and on another side the tangling with the mortgage stress test by bringing it down + the low (lowest ever?) rates offered by the banks + still a high immigration + an industry the government cannot afford to lose + giving away money so even the home owners with mortgages can survive and you won’t see mortgage defaults as a massive event and you won’t see a sudden drop in prices. Banks as well don’t want to see prices drop: imagine you have a mortgage of 950k for a 1 mil house. You paid 140k the first 5 years. Now your house is worth 800k (-20% in price). On your mortgage renewal you’ll have to bring the difference of 60k to be able to get a renewal. Now imagine how many will default in this situation.. and who wants that? The banks don’t want it. The govt doesn’t want it. The overstretched moister having nightmares about it and of course they don’t want it as well. It’s as simple as that. I can think only that this industry will be supported and the prices might flatten.. for a while.. then will start going up again. So no, don’t wait for a crash. I wish I would be wrong now, but it makes as much sense to keep the prices up now as it doesn’t make sense how we got here…

#131 JRS on 04.20.20 at 6:15 pm

Here you go: 97% of active cases are mild. – Garth

Respectfully ‘mild’ is doing a lot of work here. From that same webpage, the other 3% – the ‘serious and critical’ – is defined as “represents for the most part the number of patients currently being treated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU)” https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/about/#definitions

Thus ‘mild’ includes anything short of an ICU. If one spends a week in hospital but is lucky enough to avoid ICU that would hardly be considered ‘mild’.

#132 Seth on 04.20.20 at 6:16 pm

So what ya’ll buying?

#133 Ej on 04.20.20 at 6:18 pm

Petrified old ladies, sending their terrified husbands to shop (see them glare at baking aisles for unknown ingredients, blocking traffic). Self-righteous teachers, prov & fed workers (with self-serving unions) who are not affected financially and happy to not work. Fear-mongering politicians playing the “safety above all else” card to the hilt in order to garner the allegiance of the prev mentioned. This spells the death of many, many businesses, and the entrenchment of the self-righteous SAVDs (Orwell saw this coming, “group-think”). This may be the start of a long slow burn of Canada as we know it: debt & taxes way up, reasonableness & civility way down, and a cult of fear expected from everyone.

#134 n1tro on 04.20.20 at 6:18 pm

#118 butter upon bacon on 04.20.20 at 5:45 pm
What are the odds Trudeau directly bails out homeowners if the market starts falling?

You’re underwater? No worries feds will cover this difference. Can anyone give a math/finance based answer as to why this couldn’t happen?
——–
No need for fancy math/finance for the answer. The government, regardless of party, for the most part doesn’t give a shit about the people (as a whole). Rather, the leaders (recent ones) use their idealogues when setting policies. Back in the days, leaders would just put big businesses interest when setting policies which kind of tricked down to the rest of us but those days are gone I think.

I see the current government waging war on homeowners more than bailing them out in a desperate attempt to collect back the money they have burned away dealing with this silly virus. As with evil doctors, all homeowners are the new face of greed. How else can you explain living in your own home while others have to rent?

#135 islander on 04.20.20 at 6:24 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-cartels-are-scrambling-coronavirus-snarls-global-drug-trade/

This should end badly for a few….”businesses”

“Huge amounts of these mail-order components (used to produce fentanyl) can be traced to a single, state-subsidized company in Wuhan that shut down after the outbreak earlier this year, said Louise Shelley, director of the Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center at George Mason University, which monitors Chinese websites selling fentanyl.

#136 Grey Dog on 04.20.20 at 6:25 pm

Yikes…does SAVD not realize how much you have invested in his community?

Will one always be from ´Away’ if they are not born there? (Several generations ago…according to my husband).

What is on your license plate? Health Card? Ontario? Nova Scotia? Might help settle it…

#137 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 6:26 pm

#126 n1tro on 04.20.20 at 5:54 pm
#22 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 2:46 pm
Re: oil

——————

Wouldn’t a better play be companies that can store the oil glut? Maybe shipping companies with a large fleet of oil tankers because the oil has to go somewhere eventually so they make money for storage and then shipping.

——————

In the short term, this could factor in. Storage in supertanker is far more expensive than storage on land, though, so I’d expect the shore storage would be filled with cheap oil first, then the companies may use the supertanker oil to handle the continuing use, rather than paying hugely more to have them store it in the tankers.

However… shipping oil is also fuel intensive, so the oil tanker companies will also get a bump from low fuel prices. Definitely worth considering both ocean cargo and oil shipping companies. Let’s say the storage option could give the tanker-specific companies a fat tail.

#138 Ustabe on 04.20.20 at 6:27 pm

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 4:15 pm

Another reason not to live in BC.
Just renewed my personal truck insurance for the year
6 year old Toyota 4wd .
Fire, theft, collision, etc.
10+ year safe driving discount @ 43%
Total cost?
$2135.00
God bless govt insurance and to all the uncivil servants who worker there….. :)

Renewing the 15 year old company van later this week.
I expect the cost will be in the $3000.00 range.
Stay tuned

My Nissan SUV fully insured via ICBC costs me just over $1,000 for the year. Full collision and comp.

Of course your rates will be high if you chose to live where idiots are crashing their high end imports all the time.

If I chose to move above the Oyster River my rates would be much higher due to the accident level on the Gold River Highway.

#139 Lost...but not leased on 04.20.20 at 6:32 pm

Great UNwinding…

Spouse is now working from home….has about 2 years till retire.

Gas is currently under a dollar/litre before this ( ie 89 cents/litre)…so she is one less “taxable”driver.

Mental health goes UP(taxable???)… as 2 less hours per day in daily commute.

Our transit system(Translink)is very reliant on gas taxes…has announced major deficit ($75 million/month) and now major layoffs and routes suspended.

Public Services were one of the last shoes to drop….but if and when the rest of “us” get back to normal…how will “they ? “

#140 Attrition on 04.20.20 at 6:41 pm

Ah, absolutes.

#127 Reality is stark on 04.20.20 at 5:55 pm

Why don’t we try a little logic.
You won’t be able to borrow against your house again to finance a car or your kid’s wedding or education. You won’t get a Heloc for a reno.

Hmm. No one can see the future.

I’m pretty sure people who quality will still be able to borrow against the equity in their house, or be able to apply for a get a Heloc or LOC for whatever they want.

Give your head a shake.

The banks would never shut down their cash cows, especially with gov’t carrying the risk for them.

If anything, everyone’s going to be offered more credit than they need.

#141 Canyon Guthrie on 04.20.20 at 6:41 pm

Ok, finally some direction from Garth, Load Energy, REITs and Preferreds to Kingdom come. Now GO!

#142 John Smith on 04.20.20 at 6:47 pm

Sellers are not nearly as motivated as they should be. Slow cognition ability. Give it another 6 to 12 months.

#143 Ustabe on 04.20.20 at 6:49 pm

A couple of quick thoughts.

Reading the Independent, a British newspaper of note, lots of neuropathy showing up in recovered Covid-19 patients. Flu doesn’t have that, eh? Remember polio and its boomerang action? My father went through that, no fun at all.

History: The first wave of the Spanish Flu took out 3 to 5 million. People got sick of restrictions and opened things up and the second wave then proceeded to take out 20 to 50 million. Numbers are a bit fluid due to reportage and record keeping back in the day. Learn from history or be condemned to repeat it.

Lastly, how come no comments from all you sturdy conservative types on the folks down south blockading roads leading to hospitals? Lots of you had lots to say when it was FN blocking railroad tracks up here.

Really lastly: all the web activity and etc promoting those blockades down south have been traced to a single entity, ID as yet undetermined but it looks like a off shore, coordinated disruption tactic.

Carry on.

#144 Linda on 04.20.20 at 6:50 pm

#43 ‘Lost’ – not at all surprised by Bill 10. To say the UCP is made up of a bunch of deranged zealots who will do anything to impose their beliefs on others & who embody ‘my way or the highway’ is understating matters. Using the current crisis to increase their powers regardless of rule of law? The only ‘rule of law’ they believe in is the one that lets them do as they please.

#145 penguin on 04.20.20 at 6:51 pm

I have had cars pull over while taking my dog for a walk on the sidewalk, telling/yelling at me “Go Home, Stay Home”. Hypocrites!

#146 BS on 04.20.20 at 6:52 pm

This whole virus seems to be a left and right thing now.

The left wants all freedoms removed, everyone in their house at all times, no dog walking, no working, lots of free stuff for everybody until the virus goes away. They want the government to tell everyone what to do on everything and want to tattle on those that don’t comply.

The right is ready to get back to work, doesn’t want hand outs, understands life comes with risks and the virus will not go away for possibly a year or longer when there is a vaccine. We are adults and can deal with risks without the government micro managing us. We let others be – even if they are not social distancing with their dog.

I guess it has always been that way to some extent. The left wants the government to control everything and free stuff for everyone. They are in their glory now. The right believes in personal responsibility, earning a living and freedom. We hate what is going on.

Problem is now there is nobody working to pay for all the free stuff for the lefties (yes lefties people have to work to pay for your free stuff).

This can’t last much longer.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 6:52 pm

@#139 ustabe smart
“Of course your rates will be high if you chose to live where idiots are crashing their high end imports all the time.”

++++
One “chooses” to live where the work is…..and, dare I suggest, perhaps the govt employed geniuses charge the owners of High End Imports $5000 per year so the good drivers of low end imports can get a break?
I’ve been driving cars, trucks, motorcycles in the Lower Brainland for 40 years….accident free….and I would conservatively say I have handed the Monopoly Govt Car Insurance well in excess of $50,000 for that “priviledge” of car insurance ….so that their unionized employees can get extravagant salaries, benefits and pensions…(oh god,….here we go again)
A service that could easily provided for half the price by the private sector..

#148 AGuyInVancouver on 04.20.20 at 6:56 pm

#54 BrianT on 04.20.20 at 3:35 pm
The poll results make me feel ashamed of this country. I could even understand if the cowardly public wanted to continue to hide in the basement but that isn’t good enough for them-they need to see that the enforcers are crushing those who aren’t cowering in fear. I couldn’t feel more contempt for them at this point.
_ _ _
Buh bye Bri, don’t let the door hit you on the way out. I’m sure the Trumpers will welcome you with open arms and a death’s head mask.

#149 WestCoaster on 04.20.20 at 6:57 pm

I believed the scientists and seeing doctors and nurses dying globally , not the media or politicians. The ” numbers are low means it’s a hoax ” crowd is getting lame for a professional.

#150 not 1st on 04.20.20 at 6:59 pm

Manitoba has another death today, that’s 6 total, locks down for another month. Seriously WTF? Are we going scurry under our beds every time someone dies.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6841680/manitoba-covid-19-numbers-monday/

#151 Figmund Sreud on 04.20.20 at 7:01 pm

Poobah Kenney of UCPstan this morning:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWE85RFUEAEsCfA?format=jpg&name=small

… it’s true.

Anyway, … pollsters claim if an election was held in Alberta – last week poll, UPC would loose marifinally. Bit more than 27% who voted UPC, last election, would vote Andy Pinky Party now!

Wow! Just, WOW, …

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#152 RyYYZ on 04.20.20 at 7:08 pm

So, interesting, the poll results show that a lot (a combined 77% on the poll) of Canadians think we need to wait quite a while before relaxing restrictions.

I find that interesting, because looking at comments (I know, I know) on various stories on the “light at the end of the tunnel” story out of Ontario today, it seems like a lot of people feel that they’ve been lied to and these restrictions were unnecessary. I guess angry people are more likely to comment?

#153 Smoking Man on 04.20.20 at 7:10 pm

Wusses?

Bit off topic but been scanning the internet to find out what kind of gun the Nova Scotia killer used….

So far no luck.

Guess paying the MSM is working for T2

#154 yvr_lurker on 04.20.20 at 7:11 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-cartels-are-scrambling-coronavirus-snarls-global-drug-trade/

This should end badly for a few….”businesses”

——————-
I was reading this today as well. Perhaps with the short supply of Fentanyl and the ongoing crisis it will be an impetus for many who have been addicted to change their ways. This issue of China of being the world’s leading supplier of many of the key ingredients for Fentanyl, which was a huge health problem for certain segments of our society a few years ago, MUST be addressed in any resumption of trade with that country when this is all over.

#155 Genesis II on 04.20.20 at 7:12 pm

DELETED

#156 YouKnowWho on 04.20.20 at 7:12 pm

Latest report from Toronto Downtown.

Bike path PACKED from Strachan to York, even Jameson to Strachan was quite busy by quarantine standards. Joggers, bikers, walkers. Young people are starting to get out there. Although, plenty of masked avengers still.

I’m telling you, Justin is lucky it’s not 19C and this April is chilly because…well…good luck cutting into Canadian’s warm weather.

#157 Treasure Island CEO - 1420.00 Troy Ounces of Gold within Bicycle Distance on 04.20.20 at 7:15 pm

I don’t know Garth. I am hearing about those who have caught it have lingering health effects that simply won’t go away.

If you don’t have your health, you don’t have anything.

Avoid catching it if you can. Just because you survive does not mean you are in good health. Nobody knows the long term effects from this thing.

#158 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.20.20 at 7:17 pm

#33 Attrition on 04.20.20 at 3:05 pm sez:

“It’s time to assert your right to freedom. Go where you want when you want, where legal to do so. If you own a business, open it!

Un-elected, unaccountable, appointed public figures can’t use health scares to restrict our charter rights without our consent.

There are so many contradictions in the official approaches, it’s obvious they don’t really know what they’re doing.

For example, the government knows smoking causes cancer, but lets people decide for themselves and smoke.

The government also knows Covid19 is a limited impact pathogen that puts at risk a tiny portion of the population, but doesn’t let people decide for themselves.

This hypocrisy is obvious, and dangerous. If you’ve even scanned or read the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, you’d be concerned.

By all means wash your hands often, sanitize if you believe that does anything, wear a face mask if you value fashion over evidence, but remember that cowering is only for cowards–and being a coward is a choice.

I won’t let anyone, government included, make that choice for me, through social shaming or gov’t dictate.

We live our lives with the risk of millions of deadly pathogens every single day.

Start asserting your right to freedom.

That’s the only way this imposed lock down will end.”
———————————————————

Well said. If the bubble wrappers wanna cower under their beds they can do that. The rest of us can live our lives as we see fit.

#159 Flop... on 04.20.20 at 7:19 pm

Crowdie04.20.20 at 4:15 pm
Another reason not to live in BC.
Just renewed my personal truck insurance for the year
6 year old Toyota 4wd .
Fire, theft, collision, etc.
10+ year safe driving discount @ 43%
Total cost?
$2135.00
God bless govt insurance and to all the uncivil servants who worker there….. :)

/////////////////

Hey Crowdie, did you get a letter from ICBC as normal?

Mine is due in a little while and still no letter.

My insurance will probably be roughly the same amount as yours.

Was you able to go to your normal broker, or just do it online.

As a technophobe, I’ve been struggling.

Just tried to renew a prescription over the phone for the first time.

Been trying to get my license renewal with ICBC too, but no luck.

If they keep some of the new ways of doing stuff it could be better, but some of the staff I have been talking to are doing stuff on the fly and need more time and training.

I look forward to a bit of normality with a haircut and teeth cleaning at the dentist.

My wife gave me a bowl-cut and I have rampant plaque on my teeth, now I have to deal with ICBC.

Have I not suffered enough…

M45BC

#160 Deplorable Dude on 04.20.20 at 7:22 pm

#136 islander “Huge amounts of these mail-order components (used to produce fentanyl)”

China’s other ‘great’ export. Can we just completely cut them off please?

#161 Abc123 on 04.20.20 at 7:25 pm

80 Cto on 04.20.20 at 4:16 pm
So what capital economics is gone from a 30% housing correction to a 5% correction? What? Really?
If that’s the case then hosing is the best investment going…
It had a 30% gains in 4 years and now dropping back 5…Only to go nuts again in a year or two…

———-

Exactly and precisely !

#162 Abc123 on 04.20.20 at 7:32 pm

#119 jsto on 04.20.20 at 5:46 pm
So far nothing much felt in the economy… other than gas gone so much cheaper… I’d like to see a real effect due to this unprecedented shock – houses down 30-40% for one…

——-

Ya don’t hold your breath.

#163 n1tro on 04.20.20 at 7:33 pm

#138 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 6:26 pm
#126 n1tro on 04.20.20 at 5:54 pm
#22 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 2:46 pm
Re: oil
——
Check out STNG, my chart told be to get in at $18 last week and ride till $22

#164 Trojan House on 04.20.20 at 7:39 pm

Self-Anointed Virus Police Department or SAVPD lol!

#165 Cdn Mom on 04.20.20 at 7:50 pm

#34 Stephen on 04.20.20 at 3:05 pm
Garth! I know this is not a virus blog as said many times, but can you please please please please please, when you quote any type of infection/mortality rate, use “of confirmed cases” or “confirmed cases”. Lots of research is underway, showing mortality rates around 0.5%. Take Canada’s total deaths and convert that to likely cases….its like 320,000. There is probably a portion of these blog readers who have had it without knowing!!
………….

Absolutely! One of the epidemiological modellers in Ontario press conference today said, in response to a question: other countries, depending on test they used, report 50% undetected infections, another was “north of 90%” undetected infections. My understanding, after listening twice, was that they meant within the general population, asymptomatic, NOT individuals who were ill and tested.

I am 100% certain I had it here in northern Ontario, from late March to mid April. Testing was negative, however they did not test me until about day 12, day 10 at the earliest. About day 5 or 7, when I was most ill, my nurse practitioner told me they knew there was already local community transmission, but they weren’t testing without travel or contact with a confirmed case. At that time, we had maybe 3 confirmed cases due to travel.

Weirdest illness I’ve ever had. Come and go “can’t get warm” periods for two days, but never thought I had a fever, or was ill. Days later, lots of unproductive coughing for a day. Three days later, lungs felt like I had walked out into -30c arctic air (that seizing feeling), combined with a light bronchitis feeling. Each exhalation was not a smooth motion, but like it happened in steps. Two days of intense upper and lower gastro stuff.

Continued to smoke lightly, and shallowly, throughout. Initially called nurse practitioner because I thought it was some kind of allergy…snow was melting, I thought maybe snow mould. She clearly thought it was the virus. I came to believe the same, throughout the illness. I have no known allergies.

I’ve had the flu three times as an adult. This was no flu bug. No feeling like I’d been hit by a truck, no aches, no headaches, no runny nose or mucous, no high fever. Now my brother (flies back and forth to oil in Alberta) has it here, with exactly the same symptoms, but more severe. Called right after his test…couldn’t string three words together without a breath in between each. Asthmatic. He’s fine now, 5 days later, awaiting test result, but now his wife has mild symptoms.

It’s everywhere, I’ve only been to the grocery store once every two weeks since mid-March. And still, we have only one test-confirmed, community spread case. And a lot of people picking up a very weird illness, with LOTS of negative tests.

54, female, smoked since 12, mild emphysema, otherwise healthy

#166 Sold Out on 04.20.20 at 7:52 pm

#144 Ustabe on 04.20.20 at 6:49 pm
A couple of quick thoughts.

Reading the Independent, a British newspaper of note, lots of neuropathy showing up in recovered Covid-19 patients. Flu doesn’t have that, eh? Remember polio and its boomerang action? My father went through that, no fun at all.

History: The first wave of the Spanish Flu took out 3 to 5 million. People got sick of restrictions and opened things up and the second wave then proceeded to take out 20 to 50 million. Numbers are a bit fluid due to reportage and record keeping back in the day. Learn from history or be condemned to repeat it.

Lastly, how come no comments from all you sturdy conservative types on the folks down south blockading roads leading to hospitals? Lots of you had lots to say when it was FN blocking railroad tracks up here.

Really lastly: all the web activity and etc promoting those blockades down south have been traced to a single entity, ID as yet undetermined but it looks like a off shore, coordinated disruption tactic.

Carry on.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Just like the Tea Party was a an “organic” movement.

Bought and paid for by those well-known organic farmers, the Koch brothers.

#167 Steph on 04.20.20 at 7:55 pm

Just buy Tesla stock. I just bought a Model 3 with some profits I made YTD.

Extraordinary car, it’s like a space ship!

Oil is so 2019.

#168 David W2 on 04.20.20 at 8:04 pm

Any suggestions for good REITS and preferred /OIL ETFS to look at?

Thank you in advance.

#169 always_long on 04.20.20 at 8:04 pm

Please no stock or ETF tips. We are already fully invested as most of us have followed this blog’s advice for years.

#170 Flop... on 04.20.20 at 8:05 pm

Canada has 44 billionaires.

I still haven’t received a letter to tell me if I’m on that list either…

M45BC

Mapping Billionaires Around the World.

“The coronavirus has affected people from all walks of life–including those worth more than $1 billion. As global markets are in flux, the net worth of the world’s richest people has fluctuated to the point where many of them have lost the title of “billionaire.” Our new visualization takes the most recent data from Forbes to illustrate how many billionaires there currently are in each country, as well as the size of their cumulative net worth.”

Top 10 countries with the Most Billionaires

1. United States: 614
2. China: 388
3. Germany: 107
4. India: 102
5. Russia: 99
6. Hong Kong: 67
7. Brazil: 45
8. United Kingdom: 45
9. Canada: 44
10. France: 39

https://howmuch.net/articles/world-map-of-billionaires-2020

#171 Trojan House on 04.20.20 at 8:10 pm

#76 burnaby south gardener on 04.20.20 at 4:09 pm

I’m sorry. Walking a 4k on two sprained ankles and a broken leg does not make you a hero. If you did that while storming Juno beach then I would definitely say you’re not a coward. Otherwise, I would say you basically fit Garth’s description of someone who is terrified of this coronahoax, regardless if you can run 13.5 km every morning and I couldn’t make it to a kilometre.

Sounds like you may make a good recruit for SAVPD.

#172 meslippery on 04.20.20 at 8:13 pm

#115 -=withwings
Good grief. Second hand smoke can kill others that why the government banned smoking almost everywhere.
——————
Yeah no walking in the park with a smoke you will kill others. See thin edge of the wedge.
It was Ok because you did not smoke so now we have this no walking at all…

#173 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.20.20 at 8:13 pm

DELETED

#174 truefacts on 04.20.20 at 8:16 pm

@ #115 – wirhwings

“Good grief. Second hand smoke can kill others that why the government banned smoking almost everywhere. You want to kill yourself, go ahead, but don’t light up where you can hurt others. Covid is second-hand smoke.”

With all due respect, that’s not a fitting analogy as smokers can still go anywhere anyone else can, they just can’t smoke there. House arrest for everyone, whether or not they actually have the virus is quite different…

#175 LCBO on 04.20.20 at 8:20 pm

Stay inside Turner.

DO YOU HEAR US!!!???

If we see you outside with Bandit one more time…..

NO DONAIRS FOR YOU EVER AGAIN!!

——-
LCBO

(Lunenburg Covidiot Bureau of Oppression)

#176 TurnerNation on 04.20.20 at 8:32 pm

Well as our forum host learned there are some people to thrive under Communism.
His neighbour gladly slipped into the crisp new Block Captain commandant uniform the The Party mailed him, strode around the Prefecture post haste.
“You there citizen! Return to your home or place of business at once.”

I wish to god I was joking but we just witnessed the past and/or future.
As per the archives I predicted this. Even began saying Kommunist Kanada here. How’d I know? Because humans never change:

#18 TurnerNation on 12.30.17 at 6:13 pm
In Soviet Kanada house own you.
Someone snitched to his Prefecture Block Captain

#121 TurnerNation on 04.25.13 at 9:57 am
It’s over. Cling to your shreds if you must.
We’re “global citizens”, now, in the North American Union Lo-Wage zone, prefecture #5. Report to your block captain for your daily duties, comrade. The party elites’ sunshine list pensions are saggy.

#154 TurnerNation on 12.25.15 at 10:07 am
Exercise a few times each week. Situps or treadmill or walk your prefecture block (observe through windows everyone staring at glowing screens desperate for “information” – as book 1984 prediction).

#334 TurnerNation on 04.08.13 at 6:55 pm
400th?? We are turning into Soviet Russia here.
Our Glorious Leader standing behind signs indicating “A Strong Canada”, and that our military will ‘keep us safe’; and his “Economic Action Plan” will bring prosperity to each prefecture

#177 PastThePeak on 04.20.20 at 8:33 pm

Here you go: 97% of active cases are mild. – Garth
++++++++++++++++++++++

Indeed, but it is also a snapshot in time (it is not saying all those who were tested positive were mild the whole time). Hopefully you also checked the other stats regarding resolved outcomes.

To note: “Mild” covers everything from asymptomatic to worst flu you ever had – but just short of being hospitalized. Severe / Critical are in hospital.

Clearly better to be “mild” in that definition, but not at all like what most would think mild means…

#178 Oncebittwiceshy on 04.20.20 at 8:38 pm

Westcoaster: “I believed the scientists and seeing doctors and nurses dying globally , not the media or politicians. The ” numbers are low means it’s a hoax ” crowd is getting lame for a professional.

|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

… and that, my friend, is the biggest problem. The “leaders” have absolved themselves of all responsibility by deferring to the medical community.

Quite frankly, any doctor would recommend social distancing and isolation for their patients during the average flu season. Why take the chance?

Only 44% of Canadians have even bothered getting vaccinated for the Swine Flu. I’m sure if Harper dumped that Pandemic on his Chief Public Health Officer everyone would have had mandatory vaccinations or we would have been following the same regimen we are now.

Instead of being an elected “leader” and making crucial decisions based on all factors, Trudeau has chosen to defer to the “specialists” who will never make a recommendation other than what we are seeing.

The medical professionals are doing their jobs … Trudeau isn’t doing his. He wipes his hands clean of any responsibility for deaths or economic suicide by citing the “professionals”.

In the meantime, we all pay the price for his lack of leadership.

Here is Canada’s Development of the Influenza Pandemic Plan in response to the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic

https://sencanada.ca/content/sen/Committee/403/soci/rep/rep15dec10-e.pdf

“The Plan is based on several key assumptions informed by past experience and current knowledge.
• Origin: The next pandemic will first emerge outside of Canada and be present in Canada within 3 months, although it could be sooner given the speed of
population mobility.
• Timing: The virus could arrive at any time during the year (i.e., not just during flu season), and the first peak of illness could occur within 2–4 months after the virus
arrives in Canada, followed by the first peak in mortality (after approximately 1 month). There will likely be two or more waves of illness and each wave may go across Canada in 1–2 months affecting several locations simultaneously.
• Epidemiology: The incubation period, method of transmission and period of communicability are based on current understanding of the influenza virus. It is
assumed that a pandemic influenza virus will transmit efficiently from person to person allowing for large numbers of individuals to be infected. It is expected that there are specific groups that will be at increased risk for complications or poor clinical outcomes.
• Impact: Over 70% of the population will be infected, but only 15–35% will become clinically ill – the rest of the population having asymptomatic infection.
Mortality is expected to be between 0.4–2% of the population depending on the pathogenicity (or clinical severity) of the pandemic virus.
• Absenteeism: During an outbreak, a workplace absenteeism rate of between 20–25% can be expected (as compared to 8% during a normal winter). Rates would be influenced by factors such as the type of work, extent of social interactions, and implementation of measures that encourage infected individuals to stay at home.”

#179 conan on 04.20.20 at 8:38 pm

so whats the consensus oil/energy sector etf to load up on?- Curious

I do not like this industry at all at the moment. If I had to buy tomorrow , I would give it all to ARAMCO. They have the power to play with prices and drive the competition out. I am convinced that is what their plan is.

#180 Flop... on 04.20.20 at 8:47 pm

I am in medical limbo waiting to have 8 screws removed from my ankle.

Melbourne, Australia is restarting elective surgeries next week.

How much longer will I be screwed…

M45BC

#181 Bezengy on 04.20.20 at 8:49 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 2:19 pm
@#284 Sail Away
“A bear ate your neighbor? Wild.”
+++

A typo, Berzengy meant beer…..neighbor is probably an alcoholic.

——————

Nope.

https://www.tulsaworld.com/archive/black-bear-attacks-kills-ontario-student/article_c593c25e-c891-5add-a7ed-414766aa303c.html

#182 WUL on 04.20.20 at 8:51 pm

#147 BS on 04.20.20 at 6:52 pm

“The left wants all freedoms removed, everyone in their house at all times, no dog walking, no working, lots of free stuff for everybody until the virus goes away. They want the government to tell everyone what to do on everything and want to tattle on those that don’t comply.”

bs…bs…bs…

Most apt handle in the comment section. Full of it.

You’re the type that when civil liberty lawyers groups challenge government rights infringement in courts. label them as lefties.

Gawd, are we fkd in political discourse these days and you are an exemplar of deficiency.

Nice job. Please crawl away.

WUL

#183 Dianne M Maley on 04.20.20 at 8:56 pm

Be careful about guys who scream at you to go home when you’re walking your dog. Can’t help but wonder about that killer who had an obsession about being a cop. He shot a woman out for a morning walk. Murdered so many. Was enforcing his sick idea of “staying home” his motive?

#184 james Stevenson by on 04.20.20 at 8:56 pm

I’ll preface this by saying as an essential worker I’m taking home a private sector paycheck…I drive a truck…2 things I’ve noticed doing deliveries in the GTA…since last Thursday, a massive increase in the number of cars on the road throughout the day…going to work?…construction of condo’s is going at break neck pace..not sure who’s going to buy them.
Also, the people telling us to self isolate are getting a paycheck…the majority of these, are paid with tax payer money…one of these tax payer funded people, is a guy that tells us everyday how bad it is and we need to stay indoors under the covers, is doing so from his cottage

#185 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 04.20.20 at 8:58 pm

“These are not easy times. I thought about that as the SAVD (Self-Anointed Virus Cop) who lives beside the park yelled at me again when I walked Bandit along the edge of a deserted field. ‘Go home,’ he screamed. ‘And stay there.’ I ignored him. Bandit, too. He’s deaf now. We walked on.”
————————————————————

This just proves the old adage that a prophet is without honour in his own home town…

#186 Lost...but not leased on 04.20.20 at 8:59 pm

#145 Linda on 04.20.20 at 6:50 pm
#43 ‘Lost’ – not at all surprised by Bill 10. To say the UCP is made up of a bunch of deranged zealots who will do anything to impose their beliefs on others & who embody ‘my way or the highway’ is understating matters. Using the current crisis to increase their powers regardless of rule of law? The only ‘rule of law’ they believe in is the one that lets them do as they please.
===============================

Well…we live in UNprecedented times in what we were previously understood to be under “democracy”.

Now I see what we were warned about….democracy = MOB rule.

Here in BC…we have a very fragile “democracy”, BC NDP has an alliance with (3) Green Party members.

Where is the official opposition…aka the BC Liberal party….are they in jail…???…kidnapped ??? AWOL???

Point is…whether it is BC…Alberta…Ontario….etc…regardless of which party is in power…..we Canadians are under de -facto Martial Law…soon to be de -jure Martial Law.

#187 PastThePeak on 04.20.20 at 8:59 pm

#147 BS on 04.20.20 at 6:52 pm
This whole virus seems to be a left and right thing now.

The left wants all freedoms removed, everyone in their house at all times, no dog walking, no working, lots of free stuff for everybody until the virus goes away. They want the government to tell everyone what to do on everything and want to tattle on those that don’t comply.

The right is ready to get back to work, doesn’t want hand outs, understands life comes with risks and the virus will not go away for possibly a year or longer when there is a vaccine. We are adults and can deal with risks without the government micro managing us. We let others be – even if they are not social distancing with their dog.

++++++++++++++++++++++++

Well, I agree with you that it seems it is all about left or right, always polarized. It is very lonely here in the pragmatic middle.

I am a fiscal conservative (and typically vote same), and agree that opening up the economy (with *smart guidelines to limit spread of virus*) is very important. Start of May makes a lot of sense, and maybe earlier for provinces with very low new cases.

But I also understand science, can read credible reports, to know that COVID-19 is much worse than the seasonal flu. I don’t just take numbers at face value – which is why I looked into the popular seasonal flu numbers and found that they are *pure modelling with no relation to cause of death* (numerous posts over last couple weeks). Hence using that as the benchmark is a fail.

Yes, the left seem to love gov’t, take their word as gospel, are happy to get paid by them for months, and think social distance shaming for legal activities is their new hobby. This will lead to economic destruction.

But the “right” seem to have no regard for anyone else’s safety, think any data on serious nature of COVID-19 is gov’t BS, but any data that shows a glimpse of wider (mild) spread is absolute truth with no further data required. They laugh off any reports of serious complications from those that didn’t die. That “Freedom” (their own) is above every other consideration in a shared society.

We can get the economy (most of it) going again with some smart guidelines:
– masks for all (at least when entering a shared work space, store, or public area)
– keep the physical distancing in there
– reduce #s in any shared area
– increased employment in security, and sanitation

Sounds like a good middle ground, based in science, allows more freedom but addresses safety of others, and gets the economy moving.

Based on Garth’s comment section, expect it to be derided by both sides, if they can even stop arguing long enough to read it…

#188 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 9:01 pm

@#159 Floppie
“My wife gave me a bowl-cut and I have rampant plaque on my teeth, now I have to deal with ICBC.
Have I not suffered enough…’
++++

Omg
Classic.
:)

Yep, got the letter from “Icky Bicky” a few weeks ago…
Vague promises of possible “savings” were nothing but smoke and mirrors.

Ben Dover Mr McCavity.
you have no where else to go.

#189 fishman on 04.20.20 at 9:03 pm

Good on you Garth for blocking the anti -vaccinators. My mother had polio & the Salk vaccine arrived just in time to save her from from total paralysis, but not early enough that damage done to body made life painful & miserable. Only after leaving home & getting beyond teenage self-absorption did I come to realize what a non complainer she was. Later I had a sea captain mentor who’s daughter had been in a iron-lung for 20 years at that time. I straighten out these idiots quickly too. Just not as gently as you.

#190 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 9:09 pm

@#154 Smoking man
“So far no luck.’
++++

Try the Guardian newspaper from England and The Daily Beast.
Some interesting reports
Better than the pablum served here.
So far?
Rifle and handgun.

#191 akashic record on 04.20.20 at 9:21 pm

These are not easy times. I thought about that as the SAVD (Self-Anointed Virus Cop) who lives beside the park yelled at me again when I walked Bandit along the edge of a deserted field. ‘Go home,’ he screamed. ‘And stay there.’ I ignored him. Bandit, too. He’s deaf now. We walked on.

Who would have guessed that the paradise-looking Lunenburg is a nasty place after all.

Hopefully you kept your condo in Toronto, where you can seek refuge.

But look at the bright side, they still have not forced you and Bandit to show your immunity passports that entitles you to walk on the streets. And they even let you ignore them and walk away.

#192 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.20.20 at 9:23 pm

Be careful with that SAVC Mr. T… Scared people are as dangerous as a scared dog and just as unpredictable. Make sure you take your walking stick with you, just in case ol’ yeller decides to not physically distance himself…

#193 Keyboard Smasher on 04.20.20 at 9:25 pm

RE: “Negative Oil”

The WTI oil price is the price of a futures contract which is an instrument 99% of people do not understand.

WTI futures require physical delivery of product, which in this case means that if somebody buys May contracts then he has to deliver the barrels in a short term period.

If you buy the contract now and it expires at your hands then you have to make the delivery in Cushing, Oklahoma. The May contracts mature tomorrow, which is why we’re seeing these wonky prices momentarily.

#194 So much confusion on 04.20.20 at 9:28 pm

For the comments on transfer payments to provinces google it and go to government of Canada official public accounts and guess what every provinces get transfer payments and equalization payments.
Can every one use the worldometer I tired of everyone quoting every statistic under the. Sun
Basically the government did not understand the danger then they overheated and did the stupidest things, now Trudeau runs parliament how he likes. Sounds like control to me.
So we need some humour why is the quarantine like a dogs life?
We wonder around the house looking for food
We go for a walk and told to stay away from strangers
A car ride is exciting.
Have a great day! And stop fear in its tracks.

#195 CL on 04.20.20 at 9:30 pm

Sad state of affairs. There’s no doubt we are validating to other countries in the world that we are a country of wusses.

Canadians, say hi to socialism. This is what you wanted, but will you want it when you have to live it? considering the quantity of wusses in this country, they probably will.

Sayings exist (most are proverbs or derivatives of) for a reason and usually very true but simple. Careful what you wish for.

#196 Robert Ash on 04.20.20 at 9:38 pm

It is sad that Two Countries in the World, with very questionable ethics, can control, and laugh at us… Well make that 3 countries… you pick the Third… SA and Russia have dumped Oil, into the market and SA soon after made strategic purchases of Beaten up stock prices for Equinor( Norway) Shell ( Dutch), Chevron and Exxon, etc… while also doing this destablizing tactic, to well inflict pain on the world… Imagine if we have progressive talented forward thinking Politicians, who realized with some smart moves… Trade restrictions, a North American Producing zone, including Mexico, could actually help the world, and ourselves… A North American lead strategy could offet the control, and damage others can inflict, and protect our Economies, but also offer World Class standards to produce and reduce emmissions, and also offer other Major Global customers, many more choices that now only lead them to the Two not so nice countries… It is sad to see, such wasted opportunities, and that dosn’t even address the positive impact of Jobs, Cleaner Standards, Reduced Emmissions… Then factor in the increased Revenue, Good Paying Jobs, National Energy Security, R and D, for Emissions, and Renewable strategies… Just an Agreement, authored by smart and realistic Leaders. Nah better to hang out with Greta, and make sure the MSM stict to the narrative, that Oil and Gas and Energy are not important… then sumuggley sit and play on Face Book, and Twitter… Scary!

#197 DON on 04.20.20 at 9:43 pm

#127 Reality is stark on 04.20.20 at 5:55 pm

Why don’t we try a little logic.
Oil is toast and we export lots of oil.
A bungalow in Toronto is worth 5 times family income (approximately $300,000).
You won’t be able to borrow against your house again to finance a car or your kid’s wedding or education.
You won’t get a Heloc for a reno.
So where is this mythical economy everyone talks about?

*****

The US and Canadian economies are based on consumerism for the most part.

Prior to the virus, consumers were involved in peak debt…(and still are) the virus pricked the debt bubble. Debt saturation. Not everyone is going back to their old jobs.

How can we return to the pre-virus world? Who will want to/can go into more debt after this experience?

People’s memories suck for the most part but fear is a long lasting memory.

#198 Mr Canada on 04.20.20 at 9:48 pm

Wusses? Yep, a lot of the blame goes to us Baby Boomers who are equally wusses giving their kids (Millennials, Gen Y And Z) everything under the sun only to have T2 throw more borrowed $$ at everyone. 15 years olds who make $1k a year get paid CERB of $6k-$8K ?? Really? Future voters no doubt. Social media darlings that love shaming will simply refuse to participate in any planned opening of the economy and will be screaming online from their enabling parents basement.

#199 Trojan House on 04.20.20 at 9:51 pm

#188 PastThePeak on 04.20.20 at 8:59 pm

“We can get the economy (most of it) going again with some smart guidelines:
– masks for all (at least when entering a shared work space, store, or public area)
– keep the physical distancing in there
– reduce #s in any shared area
– increased employment in security, and sanitation”

Again, exactly what Garth is talking about – you’re one terrified individual. Who’s going to enforce it if you don’t wear a mask? Who’s going to enforce it if you don’t physical distance? What do you mean increased employment in security? For who and what? And sanitation?

Sorry, your suggestions really don’t make any sense.

#200 MF on 04.20.20 at 9:53 pm

“Canadians are reacting in a far different way. Is it our cautious nature?”

-Yes it is.

All I’m hearing is how we are doing this to save the most vulnerable, how we are in this together, how we are hopefull and so on.

Is there a problem with that? Why the slant?

Nobody is enjoying this situation. Everyone is worried about the economy. But normal people are getting by and understand the situation.

The only people struggling are those who have mental instability. It manifests itself in situations like this plain and clear.

MF

#201 not 1st on 04.20.20 at 9:58 pm

Montana becoming Nazi Germany.

https://montanadailygazette.com/2020/04/14/montana-county-demands-people-wear-government-issued-arm-bands-to-do-business/

#202 NoName on 04.20.20 at 10:04 pm

Block Captain Commandant…

I was talking to my colleague earlier today and he was telling me about back home and block captain commandant former communist commissar, was handing out tickets to people walking.

So ticket is funny if its paid with in 48hrs is (cant remember a number) let sat 20$, if not fine doubles up to 40$.

So dude goes to pay fine, to save him self some money, as he was going to pay, he was handed new fine for walking around.

After second fine he was $#!7I35 scared to go home not to get 3rd fine.

no word of the lie here

#203 Apocalypse2020 on 04.20.20 at 10:05 pm

Kim Jong Un is dying.

Wild card.

#204 akashic record on 04.20.20 at 10:08 pm

#197 Robert Ash
SA and Russia have dumped Oil, into the market and SA soon after made strategic purchases of Beaten up stock prices for Equinor( Norway) Shell ( Dutch), Chevron and Exxon, etc… while also doing this destablizing tactic, to well inflict pain on the world…

They were acting by their own financial interests, using established, common trade practices, available for all actors of the economy anywhere in the world. SA didn’t have monopoly on “making strategic purchases of beaten up stocks”.

#205 Flywest29 on 04.20.20 at 10:09 pm

Garth, I don’t know how you do it. Moderating these comments. If these are the “good ones” I can’t imagine the garbage you see. God help us if these people are the “average Canadian”. The only sane voice here is smoking man. No joke. As far as Canadians being scared into submission. Pathetic.

#206 Gil on 04.20.20 at 10:12 pm

It’s a futures contract. Don’t get overly excited. – Garth
*****************************

I understand what futures contracts are ;-) It doesn’t make it any less extraordinary, after all this never happened before for a reason

#207 Long-Time Lurker on 04.20.20 at 10:17 pm

Ironically (?), I loaded up on REITs last week and equities today. It looks like I missed the very bottom which was at the end of March because I stuck to my data instead of trusting my gut. It’s okay if I’m wrong. I’m hedged. By the way, I call “bottom” (late).

#208 Shawn Allen on 04.20.20 at 10:23 pm

Barrels?

#180 Stone on 04.20.20 at 8:45 pm
A barrel of oil is now worth…nothing.

Wow!

*****************************
But if you have a ton of empty barrels (storage) those are worth a LOT. Gonna be a mess if you take delivery of that May oil contract tomorrow and have no storage.

#209 Ronaldo on 04.20.20 at 10:26 pm

#162 Abc123 on 04.20.20 at 7:32 pm
#119 jsto on 04.20.20 at 5:46 pm
So far nothing much felt in the economy… other than gas gone so much cheaper… I’d like to see a real effect due to this unprecedented shock – houses down 30-40% for one…

——-

Ya don’t hold your breath.
—————————————————————
Not likely to happen in most places when interest rates are at rock bottom. Son just got his variable mortgage renewed at prime minus 1.2. Mortgage now 1.25%. Of the $1450 he now pays, $290 goes to interest, rest to pay down mortgage. Cheap like borscht.

#210 Figure it Out on 04.20.20 at 10:28 pm

“Bit off topic but been scanning the internet to find out what kind of gun the Nova Scotia killer used….”

He built himself a replica police cruiser down to the last detail. Figure it out.

#211 Lost...but not leased on 04.20.20 at 10:29 pm

#190 fishman on 04.20.20 at 9:03 pm
Good on you Garth for blocking the anti -vaccinators. My mother had polio & the Salk vaccine arrived just in time to save her from from total paralysis, but not early enough that damage done to body made life painful & miserable. Only after leaving home & getting beyond teenage self-absorption did I come to realize what a non complainer she was. Later I had a sea captain mentor who’s daughter had been in a iron-lung for 20 years at that time. I straighten out these idiots quickly too. Just not as gently as you.

========================

The above was another testimonial from [email protected]^sfied client of Dr. Bill Gates

#212 burnaby south gardener on 04.20.20 at 10:33 pm

Trojan House on 04.20.20 at 8:10
‘Sounds like you may make a good recruit for SAVPD.’
Again, you, Sail Away and Attrition: consistently miss the point.
As I stated previously, I AM in favour of opening up those business where it is possible but with the regular testing mentioned in my first post. 
I have no interest in being a a SAVPD. Never suggested anything in their support.

#213 Steven Rowlandson on 04.20.20 at 10:36 pm

wti $1.62 – wcs discount of $12 wti up $39.25 to $1.62
Canada gets $-10.38 a barrel for wcs crude

Can you all say cuckoo? Where is my free gasoline?

#214 Last Gasp on 04.20.20 at 10:42 pm

Who would gave thought that a 13 dollar vial of biovirus could wipe out 13 trillion globally in a mere three months. Talk about a diabolical return on malinvestment.

#215 DON on 04.20.20 at 10:42 pm

#193 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.20.20 at 9:23 pm

Be careful with that SAVC Mr. T… Scared people are as dangerous as a scared dog and just as unpredictable. Make sure you take your walking stick with you, just in case ol’ yeller decides to not physically distance himself…
+++++++++++

I am sure Garth acted accordingly with respect to a shameful goofy act by a belligerent dozy SOB.

I would understand more if the town was riddled with virus cases. But it isn’t.

I haven’t seen any belligerent acts in small town Van Isle…other than the toilet paper incident in a ‘high net worth’ retirement town, between a mom/baby and older guy making off with the toilet paper prize (using force) in the local grocery store. No one was injured in the incident except for morals. And that was over Toilet paper, which is stored in big warehouses and delivered to the stores daily. It is to big to store, so it is ordered when needed – daily if required (old summer job).

Some people need to chill to say the least. I look around me and take an honest assessment and think to myself if we had to go to war with this lot…For Fcks sake!

I have a neighbour bitching about having to go to work while others get paid to stay at home. I just reminded him that some of those folks may not have a job to go back to…but he really thinks he’s missing out as the weather is great at the moment.

I like this Social Distancing thing, comes in handy at times…let’s keep it!

#216 Toni on 04.20.20 at 10:46 pm

This is indeed a special place, opinions expressed here do not match the results of the poll.

#217 CJohnC on 04.20.20 at 10:51 pm

Republicans, the extreme right and maybe Russia pushing the reopen issue: documented:

https://krebsonsecurity.com/2020/04/whos-behind-the-reopen-domain-surge/#more-51320

#218 TRON on 04.20.20 at 10:58 pm

If Wreck beach is closed after the May long weekend I’ll be using my apartment balcony instead. Consider yourselves warned :)

#219 BS on 04.20.20 at 11:01 pm

#188 PastThePeak on 04.20.20 at 8:59 pm

But the “right” seem to have no regard for anyone else’s safety, think any data on serious nature of COVID-19 is gov’t BS, but any data that shows a glimpse of wider (mild) spread is absolute truth with no further data required. They laugh off any reports of serious complications from those that didn’t die. That “Freedom” (their own) is above every other consideration in a shared society.

Freedom means you are free to stay in their houses in self isolation. In your home you have no risk while others brave the way creating heard immunity.

#220 Last Gasp on 04.20.20 at 11:03 pm

Looks like chubby Kim Jong of North Korea took the covid challenge and won. Obese with comorbidities Little Kim was just the kind of bioreactor covid 19 thrives in and when it is most damaging. Maybe T2 is right and this covid bugger gets everybody even the high and mighty like senators or even PM’s? That is why the lockdown is so fervent. Seems like the bug was around Vancouver as early as mid December
2019 and likely the 1st surepticious
wave and as of April, we are actually now in the second wave. Lots in my social circle report a very bad bug here during December which was symptom identical to the unnamed covid but with no high amount of reported mortality back then as opposed to now. It has split off into different strains with higher lethality. Like the Spanish Flu version 1918, expect a hyper lethal 3rd wave after the summer lull by next January 2021. We are not out of the woods yet. Forget social distancing. We need to go better and free personal protection face masks gloves and sanisprays. Open up economy and reboot so we can reequip and not starve.

#221 Greg on 04.20.20 at 11:06 pm

I think the herd fear factor is greatly underestimated and will be a real strain on getting the economy humming again. That being said, I’ll sink a few bucks in oil. What’s the best way to buy it? Are you buying into individual companies? Are there ETFs? There are no stupid questions. That’s my excuse, and I’m sticking to it.

#222 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.20.20 at 11:06 pm

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 4:15 pm
Another reason not to live in BC.
Just renewed my personal truck insurance for the year
6 year old Toyota 4wd .
Fire, theft, collision, etc.
10+ year safe driving discount @ 43%
Total cost?
$2135.00
God bless govt insurance and to all the uncivil servants who worker there….. :)

Renewing the 15 year old company van later this week.
I expect the cost will be in the $3000.00 range.
Stay tuned.
—————
WTF don’t you move to Alberta.
And spare us your constant complaining.

#223 Yuus bin Haad on 04.20.20 at 11:15 pm

Too bad, with this virus thing – I miss hanging out with the young commodity traders for happy hour after a hard day at the desk – they sure are a funny bunch.

#224 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.20.20 at 11:16 pm

#154 Smoking Man on 04.20.20 at 7:10 pm
Wusses?

Bit off topic but been scanning the internet to find out what kind of gun the Nova Scotia killer used….

So far no luck.

Guess paying the MSM is working for T2
—————
Why does it matter what kind of gun was used?
Take your sick mind back to the States.

#225 Gary C on 04.20.20 at 11:33 pm

Looks like the Fed can’t print oil storage tanks, so here we go to a 60 cent dollar “at least”. BOC will print like crazy
to fund the Government, T2 will bring in his Globalist UN backed agenda.
Let’s shut down Oil, Nuclear Power, build more Windmills

Oops, Windmills kill Bats & Birds

#226 YouKnowWho on 04.20.20 at 11:33 pm

Was the Musketeer joke a bit much?

He’s the most handsome of the Musketeers. The leader!

#227 Sail Away on 04.20.20 at 11:34 pm

#163 n1tro on 04.20.20 at 7:33 pm
#138 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 6:26 pm
#126 n1tro on 04.20.20 at 5:54 pm
#22 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 2:46 pm

Re: oil

——————-

Check out STNG, my chart told be to get in at $18 last week and ride till $22

——————-

Thanks! Since your post, I’ve been researching TK, NAT, FRO, SFL, and DHT. Some serious momentum amongst tankers right now.

I’ll probably take equal positions in 3 tanker companies as a hedge, since a leak could be a stock catastrophe for any one.

Regarding STNG, I’m always a bit suspicious of companies headquartered in Monaco. What do you know about them?

#228 Steve N on 04.20.20 at 11:47 pm

Here we go with the power of statistics once again…how convenient..amd it is impressive how powerful an influence this shit is….
So I have to trust Angus Reid? How about if 3 or 4 organizations do the same survey of same amount of persons randomly ?

OTHERWISE THIS IS PROPAGANDA AND NOTHING ELSE

#229 Sail Away on 04.20.20 at 11:48 pm

#167 Steph on 04.20.20 at 7:55 pm

Just buy Tesla stock. I just bought a Model 3 with some profits I made YTD.

Extraordinary car, it’s like a space ship!

——————

You go, Steph! Yep, Teslas are something else. I enjoy letting critics take mine for a rip.

#230 Hejhog on 04.21.20 at 12:25 am

I struggle to understand any thought process that would require a threshold number of dead before accepting that the impending pandemic necessitated unprecedented communal steps to prevent total health system apocalypse. For those that feel a shutdown was not warranted what is the correct number or percentage or mortality rate that would necessitate the measures taken? And, absent the measures taken, would we have seen your threshold metric?

#231 Ronaldo on 04.21.20 at 12:26 am

DELETED

#232 ANON on 04.21.20 at 12:37 am

I’m so old I remember when talk of sub 20$ oil was doomer territory…

#233 Not So New Guy on 04.21.20 at 12:44 am

I remember when the left mocked Harper for hiding in the closet.

I guess they are going to need to revise history and call him a visionary!

ROTFL!

#234 channel surfer on 04.21.20 at 12:46 am

Agree about the buy ops. Many many growth companies have somewhat recovered but not fully. Same with fixed proxies, reits and uts.

However, as we go into the numbers coming, which show unemployment and earnings much worse than fully reported, another leg down, resembling a double bottom is almost assured.

EI apps were one million in March, they’ll be 7 million at May end. Cerb apps likely another 7 to 9 million. that will send another panic through the retail sellers.

Oil is not ZERO, the May contract has zero bid. June is a very active $22. There’s a difference. However negative perception will drive investment out of the market . The $C dollar will be under pressure due to both the above, and the many more negative factors at play for Canada and ergo Canadian stocks.

If you’re in need of your money over the next 12 months, sell into this rally. If you’re horizon is 24 months and the sale on stocks, inc Prefs, is delicious.

Time to buy, no. Times up, no. Part of the next panic sale is after the April numbers are released and current bid of relief rally buyers is washed out. Seasonal factors remain, Sell in May and Go Away, could be a game changer for buy and hold, ugly summer bear could be deep.

Election year buying could start to occur early fall, peaking in November. So, sell now and wait, or just wait and collect your dividend cash until as above.

#235 Not So New Guy on 04.21.20 at 12:52 am

#24 SunShowers on 04.20.20 at 2:48 pm

Ok, the economy is tanking and businesses are closing because people are stuck at home and not going to work.

So why can’t capitalists and entrepreneurs just create more wealth to keep everything going?

I mean, it’s been said here many times in no uncertain terms that capitalists and entrepreneurs are “wealth creators”, so what’s stopping them?

===================================

Wealth is maxed out when leisure = 100%

You can’t get any wealthier than that. The only flaw in our system is that we have stolen that wealth from future generations of Canadians. That is where the cowardice comes from. Not only robbing the cradle and the piggy bank but stealing from them before they even exist!

If this leisure were bought with our own income instead of someone else’s, we would be able to say that capitalism has passed the ultimate test

So, once again Marxists:

This is not about capitalism/socialism this is about DEBT!

I still hold out hope that one day they will clue in

#236 bob klinck on 04.21.20 at 1:29 am

Alas, no one is talking about the phenomenon of mass hysteria, to which history has shown, all too often, people have a peculiar susceptibility. “Authorities” like Anthony Fauci, Trump’s chief medical adviser who declared that COVID-19 is 10X as deadly as regular flu before any significant testing for infection rates was done, are patently trying, for some reason, to whip up mass hysteria.

#237 My Money's Going Poof, Greedeau, you ...!!!! on 04.21.20 at 1:41 am

RE:#130 TurnerNation on 04.20.20 at 6:03 pm

These past few weeks you have been so on the money with your entries. Here:

February 25, 2020
Contingency Planning for a Central Bank Digital Currency
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/research/digital-currencies-and-fintech/projects/

Oct 15, 2019
https://thelogic.co/news/exclusive/bank-of-canada-exploring-digital-currency-that-could-share-information-with-police-tax-authorities/

December 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oo3klBRk8YU

It is all so blatant it’s sickening….

#238 crazyfox on 04.21.20 at 2:07 am

TSX’s oil bull ETF likely hit bottom today. Did you ride the bear? Unless the ETF up and folds, oil will be back.

The markets are so dependent on consumer spending… what will happen as economies reopen, will flames ignite consumption priming markets with renewed optimism in the face of ugly Q2 numbers that people shrug off with hope for the future, or will there be no virus seasonality and an open economy blows out more cases with paranoid people frozen with fear crushing consumer spending?

Time will tell.

There’s an interesting theme going on beyond the noise. On one hand, we’ve led ourselves to believe that humanity has dominion over nature and in some contexts, this is true. We can, through knowledge, creativity and ingenuity, design molecular substances better than mother nature herself. Food going bad? We can preserve that. A bug going ’round? We have drugs and vaccines. Aim high and “we can do it”, send people to the moon, to other planets some day, talk to each other from the other side of the world, there is a tech fix for everything and the markets lurch higher on greed and FOMO.

On the other hand, we are natural, an interconnected part of the natural environment. When we stray from this truth, stray from the natural fixes out there and don’t get enough of the nutrients we need (like Zinc and Vitamin D) to keep our immune systems strong and couple it with bad foods and additives (like sugar) and toxins, our immune systems become compromised and disease sets in like virus’s. Some unnatural substances the markets profit from can and do make us sick. The food and drug industry, without governments holding them to account, has it’s way for good and ill and as long as people make money, few care. Even when a pandemic comes around. “we will have a drug, a vaccine, we have dominion over nature, eat what you want, as much as you want, we will have a fix”, sound familiar?

Humanity has created a catch 22 built into our monetary systems. For greater profit, corps have to synthesize compounds that don’t exist in nature. We have to denature it so we can patent it, call it our own, call it exclusive and sell it because there isn’t much profit in nature or nutrition and natural remedies. Even when facing a pandemic that has frozen half of the world’s economy, we still believe this. Even then.

We are competing against mother nature herself, against evolution that has lasted hundreds of thousands if not millions of years with the belief that we can come up with something better. Is it better, or is it a perversion of nature? Has our tech in relation to the green revolution created a better world teaming with nearly 8 billion, or is it just a rat race toward the perversion of nature ending in environmental global disaster in climate change? Is it a false choice, is it both but because of the numbers the conclusion is still the same?

Like i said, an interesting theme.

#239 My Money's Gone Poof, Greedeau (+Icky Bicky)!!! on 04.21.20 at 2:15 am

Re: #189 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 9:01 pm
@#159 Floppie
“My wife gave me a bowl-cut and I have rampant plaque on my teeth, now I have to deal with ICBC.
Have I not suffered enough…’
++++

Omg
Classic.
:)

Yep, got the letter from “Icky Bicky” a few weeks ago…
Vague promises of possible “savings” were nothing but smoke and mirrors.

Ben Dover Mr McCavity.
you have no where else to go.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
I got one of those letters with nothing but BS and hyperbole, not a single number on it!
I have had the same insurance for 10 years (>doubled in that time with 43%) but they are making me contact them so they can twist my words to acclaim they are giving me a break by only raising my rates 25%, like EFartz……..
How come I have not seen layoffs at ICBC when there’s 50+% LESS vehicles on the road.
Vancouver mayor and councillors gave themselves a huge 10% cut in pay after laying off 1500 workers, no doubt mostly lower rung. “It’s a symbolic show of solidarity, recognizing that everybody’s making sacrifices and it’s a tough time for everybody in the city,” Coun. Pete Fry told Glacier Media Friday. Wooo 10% cut, try no raise over 10 years. They are so strong…..
How come none of those guys are on pogey? Should be proportionate to the # of blue collars getting dumped.
Why aren’t our esteemed FED leaders not also taking pay cuts (and not a measly 10%) and pogey instead of giving themselves raises last month? Have they ever missed a paycheck due to Phoenix payroll disaster?
That’s you Greedeau-Morneau…..
How about lead for once!!!!
Oh yeah I forgot, ONE WORLD UN….

#240 crazyfox on 04.21.20 at 3:21 am

#188 PastThePeak on 04.20.20 at 8:59 pm

A well reasoned comment. I lament nutritional deficiencies as not being suspected and used as a therapy for infected, confirmed cases. It is well known (ok, maybe not that much) that Vitamin D (a hormone really, so vital to the immune system we call it a vitamin) and Zinc (also tremendously important to a healthy immune system) are common deficiencies.

Some 2 billion people are walking around deficient of Zinc. Covid-19 caused 30% of South Koreans to lose their taste and smell, a common symptom of an acute Zinc deficiency. It’s an easy deficiency to prove to one’s self as well. If you take a Zinc capsule apart and put it in your mouth and it tastes like water, you are deficient. If it takes seconds to a half a minute before you taste Zinc, you are sub clinically deficient depending on how many seconds it takes. If you taste Zinc right away, you are good! It’s cheap and easy to diagnose a Zinc deficiency, deficiency is common and its not something one wants to be low on facing a viral attack. Low white blood cell count should be enough on its own to explain why that is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn7ljlShkVE

In the winter months, an estimated 40% of the global population is short of Vitamin D. These are cheap and easy fixes here and its not like there aren’t scientific studies saying the trace metal Zinc coupled with natural Zinc Ionophores aren’t suggested as a potential cure at least In vivo (in glass) trials like a 2010 medical study entitled, Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Inonophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2973827/

Author’s summary: “Positive-stranded RNA (+RNA) viruses include many important pathogens. They have evolved a variety of replication strategies, but are unified in the fact that an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) functions as the core enzyme of their RNA-synthesizing machinery. The RdRp is commonly embedded in a membrane-associated replication complex that is assembled from viral RNA, and viral and host proteins. Given their crucial function in the viral replicative cycle, RdRps are key targets for antiviral research. Increased intracellular Zn2+ concentrations are known to efficiently impair replication of a number of RNA viruses, e.g. by interfering with correct proteolytic processing of viral polyproteins. Here, we not only show that corona- and arterivirus replication can be inhibited by increased Zn2+ levels, but also use both isolated replication complexes and purified recombinant RdRps to demonstrate that this effect may be based on direct inhibition of nidovirus RdRps. The combination of protocols described here will be valuable for future studies into the function of nidoviral enzyme complexes.”

A 2010 medical study was done invitro across a wide array of group 4 viruses that demonstrated increased intracellular Zinc concentrations in cell Cytoplasm disrupted viral RNA replication with the use of Zinc Ionophores (Quercetin (found in veggies, berries), Hinokitiol (Juniper Bush), Pyrithione (onions)).

The implications of this study are huge. There’s no other way of putting it. Why was there no live trial followup? No money in it I guess. But geez, what a colossal blunder potentially epic to not follow up on this.

We are talking about a potential nutritional cure for the entire spectrum of Baltimore classification group 4 and 5 RNA positive/negative single strand replication viruses. It’s a long list (take a look):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus

Corona viruses including covid-19, Rhino (that’s the entirety of the common cold right there, how much money does the world lose from common cold sick days alone), Hep A & C, West Nile, Dengue fever, yellow fever, Polio, Arthritis, Encephalitis, all Picornavirus, Togaviridae and Coronaviruses, its a long human to human list from group 4 virus’s alone:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Picornavirus

Now, I realize that in glass trials like the one mentioned from 10 years ago isn’t a live trial but nations, NGO’s, Bill Gates angel investors, health nuts with jingle, like no one could come up with enough scratch to follow up on successful glass trials like this?

It’s like I said. If we can’t denature it, we can’t patent it and if we can patent it, we can’t make money from it and if we can’t make money from nutrition, we don’t invest in a nutritional fix. Either the human race is pathetically sloppy, or just willfully ignorant. Why rattle the markets. Better just to not know the truth right?

So here, half of the world is sitting idle because there isn’t enough profit to pursue knowledge that could have ended this before it began! It could end not just this pandemic but literally cure through nutrition a wide range of human to human virus’s. But wait, business can’t make money off that! Better to have an economic depression than look to see if there’s a nutritional natural fix… y’know? Lets look at Hydroxychloroquine as a desperation Zinc Ionophore fix instead, a drug is smarter than a healthy immunity system with or without the Zinc, irrelevant it seems, whatever is good for the golden calf. (The idols humanity worships, what we value, we are so friggin’ lame)

#241 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:23 am

#98 JonBoy on 04.20.20 at 5:09 pm
#67 Sold Out on 04.20.20 at 3:54 pm

You’d think all those superior private schools, unburdened by unions and interested solely in what is best for students, would be champing at the bit to re-open. I guess non-union teachers like the pogey, too.

—-

My children attend a private school. They were up and running (online) as scheduled when spring break was over. They didn’t lose a single day and ALL teachers are taking classes, same as usual. This same school is being used as the model for the Ministry of Education in BC for how to conduct online classes and get student learning maximized.
————————————————————

Our private school in Ontario hit the deck running after March break as well. Same schedule, teachers teaching online. Total teacher interaction just like a physical classroom except online unlike the public schools that are run by the union gangsters. What pogey are you talking about?

#242 BillyBob on 04.21.20 at 6:06 am

I know this doesn’t fit with the narrative of today’s post, but according to a recent and credible poll, a majority of Americans are in fact just as concerned that their officials will lift distancing and lockdown protocols.

Perhaps not as “wussy” as Canadians, but there it is.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/19/poll-coronavirus-restrictions-194377

(Poll was conducted by Wall Street Journal but WSJ site is behind a paywall.)

Some encouraging stats, showing that most people actually aren’t thrilled with Trump’s bizarrely inept handling of the crisis.

#243 Penny Henny on 04.21.20 at 8:01 am

My apologies if this was already posted
“The May U.S. WTI contract fell US$55.9, or 306 per cent, to settle at a discount of $37.63 a barrel after touching an all-time low of -US$40.32 a barrel. Brent crude benchmark was down 9 per cent, to settle at US$25.57 a barrel.

At the same time, a barrel of Western Canada Select — which normally trades at a discount to WTI — closed at US$8.37 per barrel, down 22.5 per cent on the day.”

WCS $46 higher than WTI.

Will we ever see that again, ever?

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/negative-wti-crude-technical-crash-nobody-selling?video_autoplay=true

#244 Penny Henny on 04.21.20 at 8:05 am

and also from the same article a more balanced explanation

““Nobody is paying us to take their crude away,” said one crude oil trader with a refining company on Monday, as WTI plunged and after WCS briefly traded at -1 U.S. cent in the futures market Sunday night.

The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because oil trading is commercially sensitive, said that WTI prices for physical delivery are based on the average value of contracts traded in a month, and are set over a month ahead of time.

Meanwhile, the price of WCS barrels sold in May were set during the contracting period between April 1 and April 16. “These contracts are already negotiated and done,” the person said, adding, “there’s nobody selling crude on a one-day price — it’s all done on a monthly average.”

#245 Penny Henny on 04.21.20 at 8:15 am

#146 penguin on 04.20.20 at 6:51 pm
I have had cars pull over while taking my dog for a walk on the sidewalk, telling/yelling at me “Go Home, Stay Home”. Hypocrites!

//////////

What part of the country do you live in?

#246 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 8:17 am

@#223 Ponzie Preamble
“WTF don’t you move to Alberta.
And spare us your constant complaining.”
++++

I didnt realize Alberta didnt have the internet….
Its a shame Austria does.

#247 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 8:25 am

@#240 My money’s gone to Icky Bicky
“I got one of those letters with nothing but BS and hyperbole, not a single number on it!”

++++

Yeah I noticed that the ICBC letters used to inform you that you car insurance was running out in 30 days and the letter would state exactly how much you had to pay and for what.
Since the annual fee is now over $2000 for regular car insurance for a 10+ year safe driver they seem to avoid putting that simple fact on papaer.
I’m sure it took endless meetings of expensive, unionized, govt bureaucrats to determine that publishing the obscene amount you have to pay for insurance was…..unpopular……

But we should stop talking about how expensive ICBC rates are. It annoys Ponzie Pooper….he gets mad.

#248 Bezengy on 04.21.20 at 8:44 am

Can’t imagine the chaos going on inside our CRA offices. My guess is that the system has been overwhelmed and any sort of control or proper procedure has been thrown out the window.

#249 Dharma Bum on 04.21.20 at 8:55 am

#24 SunShowers

I mean, it’s been said here many times in no uncertain terms that capitalists and entrepreneurs are “wealth creators”, so what’s stopping them?
——————————————————————–

Our inept, socialist, corrupt, self-serving government.

#250 the Jaguar on 04.21.20 at 8:56 am

Excellent article ( though somewhat depressing) in the link below. Includes these two gems:
“Canada’s six largest banks, which loaned $58.8 billion to the Canada’s overleveraged oil industry in 2019 — a 59 per cent increase in the last five years — might quietly be panicking in board rooms at an appropriate physical distance.”

I love Art Berman. His quote in the article is one for the ages..
“It seems unlikely that what is happening today will cause society to experience some transformative epiphany that will end the age of oil. If anything, we will need inexpensive liquid fuel more than ever in a poorer world. Rather than seeing 2020 as a year of unspeakable loss, it is my sincere wish that we somehow find ways to live better with somewhat less.”

Here is the link:
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/04/18/Code-Blue-for-Oil/

#251 Gil on 04.21.20 at 9:03 am

Here you go: 97% of active cases are mild. – Garth
********************************************

Garth, you are treating statistics very liberally ;-)
So if it takes person many weeks to get rid of the virus (large number of active cases) but those that die , die in the first week or two (not counting in active cases for long), you draw a conclusion from this number that 97% of the cases are mild?

I draw no conclusion. I provided a statistical link. Believe it or don’t believe it. Your choice. – Garth

#252 maxx on 04.21.20 at 9:04 am

“We were back to prices of 20 years ago on Monday morning.”

Disastrous. There is an interesting nugget embedded in that statement. Perhaps it’s a bit of a litmus test for what has transpired over the past 2 decades.

Prices for many goods over time are a dynamic. Always. Supply and demand, yada, yada. However we have seen CBs diddle with interest rates for the duration (actually for longer, since the early 90s, but let’s keep it simple), causing distorting fallout in many prices, but mainly on RE to triple or more since around 2000.

RE prices should have followed inflation, not the dictates of realtards, egged on by crashed interest rates and the stupidity of FOMO dopes. At 3% inflation, RE would not even have doubled.

Little in this economy is trustworthy. Markets are casinos. There is without doubt money to be made, but risk is crazy high.

If you buy anything, especially RE, be merciless.

#253 not 1st on 04.21.20 at 9:07 am

Whatever the machinations in the futures market, a barrel of oil is not worth zero.

Oil will be the prime mover of the economic return long before any corporate earnings.

Trump should meet the Saudi tanker fleet with a few carrier battle groups and stick one in the strait of hormuz, then we will see what the real price of oil is.

#254 BrianT on 04.21.20 at 9:08 am

#188Past-you are letting your emotion of fear override your logical mind-this is understandable as you have ingested a 24/7 barrage of nonsense designed to keep you from thinking logically. Are you this afraid of health risks to you personally that are far greater than this virus-obviously not-would you be if the machine focused your attention on those more likely risks? Of course-you would be terrified but since by omission the machine is telling you not to worry you only fear what you are told to fear.

#255 Phylis on 04.21.20 at 9:13 am

So i wonder how many fewer oil traders there will be given that a few must have experienced a very painful event. Sell no matter how much it costs! I have a tough time understanding why market rules allows people to trade things that they cant actually use, need or acquire. It’s called a free market, but trading has many rules. Price discovery alone is not a final justification. I guess it comes down to buyer beware. Just pondering. It’s just an insight as to how much speculation is out there. The answer is plenty.

#256 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 9:34 am

Obese dictator Kim Jong Un + a two pack a day habit =
Open heart surgery at the ripe old age of 36

Who sez karma doesnt have a sense of humor

#257 Wait There on 04.21.20 at 9:36 am

#253
RE pricing should also follow real productivity. Not inflation. In that respect, RE should have been a laggard since Canadian productivity has been at the rear of the pack.

This is something Canadians don’t understand.

Wusses? Well, I can make a comment about the ones wanting to become Canadians vs. Citizens of the USA. In general if a person was very capable and wanted to make something of their life, they would head down to the USA where the opportunities are greater by far. The RISKS are higher as well but given capabilities, they know they will be rewarded.
People who choose Canada come for the socialist system of free this and that. They don’t really come to Canada for the “opportunities” of capitalism.

In fact, the average US resident looks towards a successful person in their field and want to emulate their success and they are looked up to. Up here, they are seen as being too rich and should be taxed. A very different mentality. When resources scored a high price and revenues, Canada could get away with this…not so right now.

#258 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 9:43 am

Well, to hell with a crazy , nuclear power without its obese leader at the helm ( no I’m not talking about the US) …. crazy Kim is old news.

Lets talk about China’s boycott of Canadian lululemon tights….. the horror……

https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN2231G7

#259 calgary rip off on 04.21.20 at 9:47 am

What is relevant is decision making. Making decision are taken for granted and this bat virus is making that clear.

Each day there are many little decisions. And in this time those little decisions matter.

The medical industry is scrambling to understand how to understand this virus. Is it a bioweapon or just natural? Is immunity from exposure long term or not at all? Can a vaccine work? Why do some get cytokine storms and others do not?

The reality is that for each individual the world is very different. And this has been demonstrated clearly by this virus.

I am thoroughly enjoying the lack of business and non essential activities. I dont wish ill will on any of the workers however plane flights for vacations are a waste of time and money. Enjoy your life how it is now.

I am in favour of not allowing businesses to recup until next year. People complain about being “alone”. What crap. The internet demonstrates repeatedly that 99% of people care about nothing but themselves. I am not one that pays lip service to others. And I dont lie to them either if I dont approve of what they are doing.

Keep walking your dog. Your lungs, CNS and immunity thank you.

And yes Canadians are smarter than Americans. It pays to be cautious.

#260 Phylis on 04.21.20 at 9:48 am

PH…The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because oil trading is commercially sensitive, said that WTI prices for physical delivery are based on the average value of contracts traded in a month, and are set over a month ahead of time.

This helps. Thx, it leads to more questions but i wont bother asking here.

#261 Penny Henny on 04.21.20 at 9:55 am

Never let a good quote go to waste.
Former Australian prime minster Malcolm Turnbull

‘Justin,’ I said, ‘we’re not here to talk about your socks’

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/worried-about-offending-trump-flaky-trudeau-humiliated-fellow-leaders-during-tpp-trade-talks-former-aussie-pm

#262 not 1st on 04.21.20 at 10:06 am

#260 calgary rip off on 04.21.20 at 9:47 am

Another SJW shamer. Your socialist cave awaits.

Lock yourself away and sign away your rights if you are so afraid of shadows while the rest of us figure out how to put society back together again. Don’t worry, you don’t have to participate. Govt cheques are coming.

#263 James on 04.21.20 at 10:13 am

#242 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:23 am

#98 JonBoy on 04.20.20 at 5:09 pm
#67 Sold Out on 04.20.20 at 3:54 pm

You’d think all those superior private schools, unburdened by unions and interested solely in what is best for students, would be champing at the bit to re-open. I guess non-union teachers like the pogey, too.

—-

My children attend a private school. They were up and running (online) as scheduled when spring break was over. They didn’t lose a single day and ALL teachers are taking classes, same as usual. This same school is being used as the model for the Ministry of Education in BC for how to conduct online classes and get student learning maximized.
————————————————————

Our private school in Ontario hit the deck running after March break as well. Same schedule, teachers teaching online. Total teacher interaction just like a physical classroom except online unlike the public schools that are run by the union gangsters. What pogey are you talking about?
_________________________________________
Two of my children are in private with the third just entering the system this year. Absolutely correct about the private system up and running pretty damn well. They are all online and working at a decent pace. They didn’t miss a beat. Mind you between my wife an I we are alternating the work from home thing. This week I am in the R&D / production facility. Needless to say the teachers here in the province are overpaid and run by the unions. If any of them have any decent ideas about furthering education and making it better they are shut down by the union. It is a time for the teachers union reps to out and get a real job instead of being leaches on the back of the teachers and the taxpayers of this province. I hope the whole education system collapses under the weight of the this current monetary shortfall crisis and we kick the union out.

#264 General Douglas MacArthur on 04.21.20 at 10:14 am

#254 not 1st on 04.21.20 at 9:07 am
.
“Trump should meet the Saudi tanker fleet with a few carrier battle groups and stick one in the strait of hormuz, then we will see what the real price of oil is…”

Now you’re talking cowboy!

#265 Fartzy's Buddy on 04.21.20 at 10:15 am

#257 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.21.20 at 9:34 am

“Obese dictator Kim Jong Un + a two pack a day habit =
Open heart surgery at the ripe old age of 36
Who sez karma doesnt have a sense of humor..”
————————————————————-
You got that right Fartzy! Karma is a bitch…

#266 Jesse Livermore on 04.21.20 at 10:19 am

256 Phylis on 04.21.20 at 9:13 am

“So i wonder how many fewer oil traders there will be given that a few must have experienced a very painful event..”

Phylis oh Phylis. Traders are either long or short. It is a zero sum game. There are traders who have made a fortune from oil going where no oil price in futures markets has gone before. There are traders who were short (because of the zero sum game of futures, for every long there has to be a short) and are now wealthy beyond imagination for the average Joe Blow…

#267 BrianT on 04.21.20 at 10:33 am

#260Calgary-our deepest appreciation for you letting us walk dogs-you are so kind and gracious-this scamdemic has brought these little aspiring dictators out of the woodwork like yapping Chihuahuas.

#268 Chris Serran on 04.21.20 at 10:38 am

I just did a poll. It found 70% of the people who read this blog think they have all the answers. Also 60% felt they would make better decisions than the experts and leaders. Unfortunately none of them have a clue. Things will stay shut down until the new cases and deaths are actually trending down. Things will start to open up long before 3 months from now, but in a gradual and smart way. Some businesses will fail, some always do. Some will thrive. If you think the USA is doing so great take a look at the news in Texas – they are getting smashed just like Alberta. Buy strong businesses and hold long term. Probably best to stop reading this blog as well, too much hype.

#269 Phylis on 04.21.20 at 10:44 am

#267 Jesse Livermore on 04.21.20 at 10:19 am
256 Phylis on 04.21.20 at 9:13 am

“So i wonder how many fewer oil traders there will be given that a few must have experienced a very painful event..”

Phylis oh Phylis. Traders are either long or short. It is a zero sum game. There are traders who have made a fortune from oil going where no oil price in futures markets has gone before. There are traders who were short (because of the zero sum game of futures, for every long there has to be a short) and are now wealthy beyond imagination for the average Joe Blow…

Understood, and i did say ‘a few’, someone had to bail at a point never seen before…. ok, since i’m here, time for the next ponderance. Can i create an oil contract without the ability to produce, or do i have to buy one that a producer already created. Can i generate a naked contract?

#270 Figure it Out on 04.21.20 at 10:55 am

– Globally 96% of folks who get the bug experience mild symptoms.
– Here you go: 97% of active cases are mild.

The dead as a percentage of closed cases is 21% (same source as the above claim). Active cases outnumber closed cases 2:1 because growth. It is likely that a lot of currently active cases with mild symptoms will be dead within weeks.

I’m optimistic that we’ll get through this, and fairly soon, as long as we don’t let optimists control the narrative, and we learn from the overly optimistic elsewhere.

So far fewer than 1,600 Canadians have died of virus. Half were aged. Last year 45,000 died of smoking. Today the pessimists are clearly in charge. – Garth

#271 Doug t on 04.21.20 at 10:58 am

#269 Chris Serran

So why are you here then?

#272 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.21.20 at 11:01 am

#146 penguin on 04.20.20 at 6:51 pm sez:

“I have had cars pull over while taking my dog for a walk on the sidewalk, telling/yelling at me “Go Home, Stay Home”. Hypocrites!”
——————————————-
Maybe they’re taken aback by seeing a penguin walking a dog?

I got a million of em!

#273 BrianT on 04.21.20 at 11:02 am

LOL-Trump just said he is going to suspend all immigration to the USA and the MSM and conformist sheep are howling in outrage. Here in Canada our fearless leader plans to increase immigration-why not? Shut down all the productive sectors of the economy-make it illegal to work and ramp up immigration-I guess it would work if we were all billionaires selling groceries to eaters with government cheques.

#274 Lefty on 04.21.20 at 11:08 am

#269 Chris Serran on 04.21.20 at 10:38 am

“60% felt they would make better decisions than the experts and leaders”
——————————–

I postulate that the experts were ~90% wrong in their decisions leading up to the outbreak. Our top experts labelled the virus ‘low risk’ as late as March 7th, they flip-flopped on masks & border shutdown efficacy, etc. I think a dart board would have made better decisions.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6644667/coronavirus-risk-low-canada/

#275 oh bouy on 04.21.20 at 11:13 am

@#264 James on 04.21.20 at 10:13 am
#242 Oscar on 04.21.20 at 4:23 am

#98 JonBoy on 04.20.20 at 5:09 pm
#67 Sold Out on 04.20.20 at 3:54 pm

You’d think all those superior private schools, unburdened by unions and interested solely in what is best for students, would be champing at the bit to re-open. I guess non-union teachers like the pogey, too.

—-

My children attend a private school. They were up and running (online) as scheduled when spring break was over. They didn’t lose a single day and ALL teachers are taking classes, same as usual. This same school is being used as the model for the Ministry of Education in BC for how to conduct online classes and get student learning maximized.
————————————————————

Our private school in Ontario hit the deck running after March break as well. Same schedule, teachers teaching online. Total teacher interaction just like a physical classroom except online unlike the public schools that are run by the union gangsters. What pogey are you talking about?
_________________________________________
Two of my children are in private with the third just entering the system this year. Absolutely correct about the private system up and running pretty damn well. They are all online and working at a decent pace. They didn’t miss a beat. Mind you between my wife an I we are alternating the work from home thing. This week I am in the R&D / production facility. Needless to say the teachers here in the province are overpaid and run by the unions. If any of them have any decent ideas about furthering education and making it better they are shut down by the union. It is a time for the teachers union reps to out and get a real job instead of being leaches on the back of the teachers and the taxpayers of this province. I hope the whole education system collapses under the weight of the this current monetary shortfall crisis and we kick the union out.
_____________________

well la-ti-da

#276 oh bouy on 04.21.20 at 11:17 am

@#269 Chris Serran on 04.21.20 at 10:38 am
I just did a poll. It found 70% of the people who read this blog think they have all the answers. Also 60% felt they would make better decisions than the experts and leaders. Unfortunately none of them have a clue.
_______________________

ya, not sure the ‘experts’ and ‘leaders’ have a clue either. making it up as they go along.

#277 AisA on 04.21.20 at 11:35 am

Folks really need to start calling the response to this cold the stupidest thing they have seen in their entire lives or it’s just going to continue. Even the folks who weren’t sure if it was the right thing to do are too embarrassed to say it because they were scared initially.

I’ve tried to post and had to stop myself over the last couple of weeks to not be offensive or belligerant.

We have simply all been played for fools while a coordinated re-engineering of society is taking place.

#278 SoggyShorts on 04.21.20 at 11:44 am

#111 Stone on 04.20.20 at 5:40 pm
Global death rate currently sits at 6.90%.
*******
Where are you pulling that number from?
Does it account at all for the fact that in almostevery single country test kits are limited and therefore symptomatic people are given them as a priority?
A study in Iceland found that about HALF of infected were asymptomatic– this changes statistics drastically.

Its not perfect, but worth a watch:
https://youtu.be/F1eAFEBiQMs

#279 Liberty for Safety on 04.21.20 at 11:51 am

#201 MF
“All I’m hearing is how we are doing this to save the most vulnerable, how we are in this together,…”

No, we’re not really in this together. As a wrinklie, I’m at greater risk than younger cohorts. I decide what to do/not do to mitigate that risk. Your decision to work or not, distance or not, etc. neither raises nor lowers the risks that I face. I do not believe the poll respondents are motivated by the selfless and altruistic reasons you espouse. I believe they have imbibed the scary messages of MSM and public health figures, thereby finding an excuse to cop out of personal responsibilities, and, bonus,…money for free, don’t pay rent, enjoy the holiday!
Those at minimum risk have decided to trade everyone’s liberty for “safety”, and have empowered governments to direct the course of our lives to an unprecedented degree.
But governments don’t seem to want us to know what’s really happening with the pandemic. Inadequate testing leads to bogus stats. No need to test the entire population; random tests of general populace will indicate a much more accurate progress of infections. Surely money can’t be the problem, considering the amounts being printed these days. No, the gov. has accurately taken the pulse of social media to guide their power grab(s).
The generation that brought us safe spaces, victimhood as a career, grievance studies, cancel culture, anonymous pillorying of whomever, de-platforming, doxxing, etc., are now the arbiters of accepted social norms, a la Millennial Realist, Screwed Canadian Millennial and all that ilk. Well, we have certainly been “…run over by it.” as they have so kindly cautioned.
The liberty that you have willingly relinquished in a trade for perceived safety will not be easily recouped. But then you don’t really seem to care about either freedom or privacy. Liberty or safety? You can’t have one without the other.

#280 James on 04.21.20 at 11:53 am

#225 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.20.20 at 11:16 pm

#154 Smoking Man on 04.20.20 at 7:10 pm
Wusses?

Bit off topic but been scanning the internet to find out what kind of gun the Nova Scotia killer used….

So far no luck.

Guess paying the MSM is working for T2
—————
Why does it matter what kind of gun was used?
Take your sick mind back to the States.
________________________________________
Send the Old Man packing back to his second amendment loving nut-bar president Trump. Good luck at the border, hope you don’t have a fever. WTF is wrong with you? Who cares about the weapon used Old Man it was real people that were killed by this raging unhinged lunatic.
Get a grip on what is more important! These innocent people had families and lives to live. Now their lives have been cut short buy a nut.
Christ you need to get a grip on reality.

RIP To all of the victims in Nova Scotia and prayers to their families.

#281 Simone D on 04.21.20 at 11:56 am

So far fewer than 1,600 Canadians have died of virus. Half were aged. Last year 45,000 died of smoking. Today the pessimists are clearly in charge. – Garth

——————————————————-

False equivalency.

People choose to suicide by cancer stick and is a much slower process, while the virus is not really an option. You get it or you don’t. Also, coronavirus isn’t really taxable in the long term, so using smoking as a societal comparison to tolerate it is disingenuous.

The only thing they have in common is if you tried to ban smoking outright, the same apes would be out marching for their freedumbs as we have now over the lock-down.

Scientists and doctors are starting to piece together what is actually causing mortality with this virus, and it’s actually quite aggressive and is capable of infecting a much wider variety of organs besides your lungs.

— Mangalmurti says she has been “shocked by the fact that we don’t have a huge number of asthmatics” or patients with other respiratory diseases in HUP’s ICU. “It’s very striking to us that risk factors seem to be vascular: diabetes, obesity, age, hypertension.”

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

And who knows? The more hosts you let the virus move through, the more opportunity it has for mutation. Imagine if this were to become an annual thing like the flu? Or if the virus evolved some mechanism that allowed it to more readily evade white blood cells?

“Why are RNA virus mutation rates so damn high?”

https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3000003

Maybe we should make those calls once researchers have a much better picture of how this new virus operates.


Calling those who disagree with you “apes” tells us something about you. It’s not good. – Garth

#282 Lefty on 04.21.20 at 11:57 am

#272 Doug t

Because he is an expert on experts.

#283 George S on 04.21.20 at 12:00 pm

I am detecting some confusion about how mild or serious the COVID-19 cases are according to the daily published statistics. ever since the start of the pandemic the numbers have been that 96 or 97% of the ACTIVE cases have been mild indicating that only 3 to 4% of the ACTIVE cases are serious. This statistic is misleading because all COVID-19 cases start out as mild and then progress to being more serious after a week or two. Death or recovery usually occurs after a couple of weeks of being on a respirator in an ICU.
If 97% of the ACTIVE cases are mild and continue being mild then the number of SETTLED CASES would indicate that the death rate of SETTLED CASES was something around about 1 or 2%, which it isn’t.
When the death rate is consistently 21% of SETTLED cases that means that really a lot of those MILD ACTIVE cases progress to SERIOUS and a lot of those people die, especially if they have to be put on a respirator.
Everybody seems to be ignoring that statistic and claiming that they know what is best for the country and its economy.

As far as getting people to be afraid of a disease pandemic being a bad thing, why is it that many people claim that it is a good thing to have everyone made so afraid of the economy that they are willing to give up their lives and the lives of others to protect it?

If the lockdown is lifted prematurely all the damage to the economy from it will be for nothing because the pandemic will simply start up again and become uncontrolled and many more people will die unnecessarily, especially when the medical system collapses.

45,000 people dying of smoking is a “red herring” statistic because all those deaths are not destroying the health care system because the health care system has adapted to dealing with the current number of people dying of various diseases.
Minimization of the seriousness of a worldwide disease pandemic of a new disease is doing a grave disservice to people.
I realize that most governments worldwide are willing to accept the deaths of millions of people to preserve the economy. Even such things as the number of young Americans that were killed in the Vietnam war or the 1 million British Empire soldiers that were killed in WW1, those deaths were most likely due to some sort of economic reasons as are most conflicts that aren’t due to some people wanting to protect their religion.

“Governments worldwide are willing to accept the deaths of millions of people to preserve the economy.” Where are those millions of deaths? – Garth

#284 Barb on 04.21.20 at 12:07 pm

#93 Sail Away

“The vulnerabilities of a few should not take precedence over the needs of the vast, vast, vast majority.”
———————————-
Exactly.
But it occurs more and more.

Orchards/farms/acreages are now not allowed to burn prunings in my area. Far too much debris (the size of a garage) to bring in a chipper, which by the way, isn’t cheap.
Health bureaucrats want to keep the air clean so people with underlying conditions etc can breathe easier.

Shall I call those bureaucrats and entice them to arrive en masse with baseball bats when we report these pruning piles have become a den for rats.

Rats = another pandemic on the horizon?

#285 JRS on 04.21.20 at 12:14 pm

So far fewer than 1,600 Canadians have died of virus. Half were aged. Last year 45,000 died of smoking. Today the pessimists are clearly in charge. – Garth

Again, respectfully, this is a flawed comparison, and does not actually make the point you I presume you think it supposes.

The link below shows that weekly Covid deaths are greater that the weekly average from car crashes, cancer and heart disease. Note the plot is already a week old and the most recent week’s deaths were double the last week shown in the graph. Making comparisons to yearly total from chronic issues grossly misrepresents the acute immediate risk.

https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like

Bogus chart. The virus will spike and fall, as you know. Bad human behaviour (like smoking) continues to cost the health care system billions. Year. After year. After year. – Garth

#286 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.21.20 at 12:16 pm

From the Babylon Bee: NEW YORK, NY—At a press conference this morning, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio unveiled a new way that individual citizens can help enforce social distancing.

“It is up to every citizen to watch and monitor everyone else and report to the police anything they don’t like,” de Blasio said. “That’s why we have created a new enforcement program: Knowledgeable Actors Reporting Edict Noncompliance, or KAREN for short.”

With the new program, de Blasio is asking everyone to become a KAREN and use a special hotline to report anyone they see who isn’t following social distancing guidelines straight to the police.

“It doesn’t matter if it looks like people aren’t hurting anyone,” de Blasio said. “If you see anyone not doing exactly what our social distancing guidelines say, be a true KAREN and report them to the police right away. And if you think any business is behaving improperly, I want you to be a KAREN and march right in there and ask to speak to a manager.”

“I want everyone to know,” de Blasio added, “that KARENs are out there and they are not minding their own business.”

To further entice people to be KARENs, de Blasio also announced a rewards program for reporting on fellow citizens: Special Tokens for Individuals Taking Care to Hassle Every Suspect (STITCHES).

“Remember,” de Blasio said, “snitches get STITCHES.”

#287 John on 04.21.20 at 12:21 pm

So far fewer than 1,600 Canadians have died of virus. Half were aged. Last year 45,000 died of smoking. Today the pessimists are clearly in charge. – Garth

Except that cigarettes are not contagious like covid. And perhaps the social distancing and staying at home contributed to lowering the death cases.

Since the vast majority of people (so say the stats, to date) will not get the virus, or die, I thought the big issue was not overwhelming the health care system. Smokers do that routinely. Why do you not care? – Garth

#288 AisA on 04.21.20 at 12:35 pm

People with compromised immune systems and elderly people who happen to also be frail can choose to stay home, have groceries delivered and dropped off and be visited by care providers.

There was never a need to shut down and curtail freedoms. All that CERB money could have been used to take the best possible care of the sick and at risk, rather than spent to keep otherwise healthy people at home doing nothing.

#289 Not So New Guy on 04.21.20 at 12:42 pm

#254 not 1st on 04.21.20 at 9:07 am

Whatever the machinations in the futures market, a barrel of oil is not worth zero.

===================================

Actually, it can be. This is not an oil event, it is a credit event. Because the fed was tossing out so much credit at ultra-low rates, that money went into the oil markets and created a glut of inventory that jammed up the system.

That is what excessive credit does. It creates surpluses that the market can’t digest. This is why we had $17 trillion dollars worth of negative-yielding debt

The market can only take so much sugar before it starts
getting violently ill. The people at the Fed can’t understand that. They seem to think that a coffee shop on every corner will magically create more coffee drinkers

#290 UmiouiuS on 04.21.20 at 12:55 pm

“These are not easy times. I thought about that as the SAVD (Self-Anointed Virus Cop) who lives beside the park yelled at me again when I walked Bandit along the edge of a deserted field. ‘Go home,’ he screamed. ‘And stay there.’ I ignored him. Bandit, too. He’s deaf now. We walked on.”

That’s the one real negative about small towns, Garth. In the beeg city you meet a medley of different jerks, whereas in a tiny town you can bump into the same jerk, stuck on the same theme, repeatedly.

#291 JRS on 04.21.20 at 12:59 pm

Bogus chart. The virus will spike and fall, as you know. Bad human behaviour (like smoking) continues to cost the health care system billions. Year. After year. After year. – Garth

Garth, three of the lines are the chart are prior flu epidemics. They were prolonged multi-week/month events. The time scale of Covid will ‘rise and fall’ similarly, but at a mortality cost that exceeds all other causes. It will cost the health system billions.
Economy versus mortality is a false choice. Yes we must find a level of risk we can accept, but there is no version of this where the economy is saved, even if we decide to let it run its course.
If New York had not shut down, *MORE* people would have died and the economy would have *STILL* have cratered.

#292 Sail away on 04.21.20 at 1:00 pm

#275 Lefty on 04.21.20 at 11:08 am
#269 Chris Serran on 04.21.20 at 10:38 am

“60% felt they would make better decisions than the experts and leaders”

——————–

Our top experts labelled the virus ‘low risk’ as late as March 7th, they flip-flopped on masks & border shutdown efficacy, etc.

——————–

Funny how they had the correct response in the beginning, but were subsequently carried away by frenzied enthusiasm, eh?

#293 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.21.20 at 1:15 pm

@#280 Liberty for Safety on 04.21.20 at 11:51 am:

Great post! I just wanted to add that to understand what governments want from the pandemic, you need to remove the letters d, e, and m.

#294 MF on 04.21.20 at 1:18 pm

280 Liberty for Safety on 04.21.20 at 11

To be a wrinklie, and think like that is more of a representation of your personality than any of the theories you mentioned.

I only hope, if I am one of the lucky ones able to reach old age, that my worldview is the diametric opposite of the paranoia, cynicism, and delusion of yours.

MF

#295 Jesse Livermore on 04.21.20 at 1:18 pm

#270 Phylis on 04.21.20 at 10:44 am
#267 Jesse Livermore on 04.21.20 at 10:19 am
256 Phylis on 04.21.20 at 9:13 am

Understood, and i did say ‘a few’, someone had to bail at a point never seen before…. ok, since i’m here, time for the next ponderance. Can i create an oil contract without the ability to produce, or do i have to buy one that a producer already created. Can i generate a naked contract.
——————————————————–
Oil futures are traded by the CME group, an outgrowth and combination of the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The futures markets all have a degree of artificiality to them because the financial contracts for a commodity can dwarf the actual commodity itself. In other words, you can have a hell of a lot more oil in the futures markets than actually exists in reality. You can buy or sell oil futures all you want as someone will take the other side of the trade. These are financial markets, trading financial instruments, oil futures. If you want to wade into these shark infested waters, buyer or seller beware…

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cme.asp

#296 Attrition on 04.21.20 at 1:43 pm

Seriously, where’s Trumpocalypse2020?

#297 Liberty for safety on 04.21.20 at 1:56 pm

#295 MF

Since you refer to my “theories”, perhaps you could attempt to refute any of the points that I have made, instead of the smears in your last sentence:

paranoid? I simply stated my wish to asses my own risk and act accordingly without gov. coercion. Seems to me the paranoid are those at low risk, afraid to resume normal life.

cynic? ok you got me there.

Deluded? only time will tell.

Meanwhile, get these damned lockdown vigilantes off my/our case. New Yorkers now urged to snitch. Do you agree with this? It’s all starting to look so familiar, just like an eastern european country I came from.

#298 Phylis on 04.21.20 at 2:01 pm

#296 Jesse Livermore on 04.21.20 at 1:18 pm Ok, thx. In lighter news, Ms. Cardinal has become quite enamoured?/angered? with the reflection in my car’s side door mirror.

#299 Sold Out on 04.21.20 at 2:08 pm

#292 JRS on 04.21.20 at 12:59 pm
Bogus chart. The virus will spike and fall, as you know. Bad human behaviour (like smoking) continues to cost the health care system billions. Year. After year. After year. – Garth

Garth, three of the lines are the chart are prior flu epidemics. They were prolonged multi-week/month events. The time scale of Covid will ‘rise and fall’ similarly, but at a mortality cost that exceeds all other causes. It will cost the health system billions.
Economy versus mortality is a false choice. Yes we must find a level of risk we can accept, but there is no version of this where the economy is saved, even if we decide to let it run its course.
If New York had not shut down, *MORE* people would have died and the economy would have *STILL* have cratered.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

^This ++++.

Not this v.

Trump suspends US immigration.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52363852

What, is he that sure he won’t need another wife?

Welp, I guess that even during a national crisis, he still has time to slop the hogs.

Bonus points for referring to SARS-cov-2 as the “Invisible enemy”, because a president can’t be held responsible for something he can’t see, right?

https://www.newsweek.com/late-us-intelligence-community-alerts-slow-pentagon-response-contributed-us-militarys-1497620

But he doesn’t remember any briefing. Riiiigghhtt.

Good thing he negotiated that oil output cut, or the US could really be in trouble.

(Slow golf clap)

#winning

‐—————————————–

Garth, it’s looking less likely that you were turfed from the party for disobedience and more likely you were banished for being too far right, even for Harpercons.

#300 Dr V on 04.21.20 at 2:08 pm

my first comment directly to the pandemic, and the probabilities. from the cbc covid tracker

“Because the number of reported cases depends on how much testing is done and how targeted or widespread it is, epidemiologists consider deaths to be a better gauge of the actual number of infections and the progress of the epidemic. While it takes a couple of weeks for an infected person to be reported as a positive case, death occurs, on average, more than three weeks after a person has been infected.

That means while deaths represent information that may be more accurate and precise, the figures are also more out of date than reported cases.”

so if you compare cumulative deaths from today to infections 3 weeks ago……gulp…..not good…..

But you can temper that with this also from the tracker

“Cumulative numbers show the total number of people that have tested positive for COVID-19 and give a sense of how far the epidemic has progressed. The chart excludes people who are infected but have not been tested (many provinces don’t allow all people with symptoms to be tested, and some infected people are asymptomatic) and those who are still awaiting test results, which can take days. That means the actual number of infections may be much larger.”

So this can only drop the mortality rate.

The answer is clear. We don’t know.

#301 Trumpocalypse2020 on 04.21.20 at 2:19 pm

#297 Seriously, where’s Trumpocalypse2020?

—————————————————————-

I am still here. Preparing for what lies ahead.

#302 Lambchop on 04.21.20 at 2:39 pm

#297 Attrition on 04.21.20 at 1:43 pm
Seriously, where’s Trumpocalypse2020?
_____________

#204 Apocalypse2020 on 04.20.20 at 10:05 pm
Kim Jong Un is dying.

Wild card.
_______________

I wonder how many North Koreans could be saved from starvation just on KJU’s ration alone

#303 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 04.21.20 at 2:42 pm

#300 Sold Out on 04.21.20 at 2:08 pm

“Garth, it’s looking less likely that you were turfed from the party for disobedience and more likely you were banished for being too far right, even for Harpercons.”

The financial oracle, bearded crystal ball gazing mystic, sage of Lunenberg, financial tea leaf reading prognosticator, former Minister of National Revenues, blog dog nominee for the Order of Canada, Harley riding badass, lover of all things canine, lone voice of reason crying out in the Canadian financial wilderness, NYTimes bestselling author and lastly, all round jolly good fellow was booted out because that’s what society’s have always done to their prophets throughout history. They cannot bear the message that the prophet has brought…

#304 n1tro on 04.21.20 at 2:51 pm

#228 Sail Away on 04.20.20 at 11:34 pm
#163 n1tro on 04.20.20 at 7:33 pm
#138 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 6:26 pm
#126 n1tro on 04.20.20 at 5:54 pm
#22 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 2:46 pm

Re: oil

——————-

Check out STNG, my chart told be to get in at $18 last week and ride till $22

——————-

Regarding STNG, I’m always a bit suspicious of companies headquartered in Monaco. What do you know about them?
———————
I know nothing of them. I’m not in these trades long enough to care. If my chart setup says it is time to buy, I get in, Just got to be more disciplined to hold until the chart says to get out.

#305 TLDR on 04.21.20 at 3:14 pm

TLDR – wusses

] survey says Canucks beleive months of shutdown still lay ahead, as they search through the shattered shards of consumer confidence lying on the floor.

] what does one in invest in when the only thing lower than consumer confidence is the price of the countries historical #1 export and economic driver

] perhaps NOT in the troubled covid crippled industries like tourism (hotels, airbnb, vacations, cruises, airlines?) OR entertainment (theatres, concerts, festivals, sports) OR …

] perhaps YES to – ] Oil, ] RE discounted at -5+%, ] REITs, ] Preferred Shares.

] Most Canadians will miss out on these opportunites because they are risk averse and will be stuck hunkered down in their pricy abodes, watching the brave American canaries down south of the mason dixie line, fearlessly charging headlong into the covid coal mine. No risk aversion there, lets see how that turns out.

#306 BS on 04.21.20 at 3:23 pm

#271 Figure it Out on 04.21.20 at 10:55 am

I’m optimistic that we’ll get through this, and fairly soon, as long as we don’t let optimists control the narrative, and we learn from the overly optimistic elsewhere.

What you are saying is don’t let people like you control the narrative?

#307 NFN_NLN on 04.21.20 at 5:52 pm

COVID-19 is a medical break through. Ever since it’s introduction it has completely eliminated deaths from plain old flu and pneumonia.

#308 NFN_NLN on 04.21.20 at 6:04 pm

Overlay a heat map of:
– COVID-19 hot spots
– Liberal voters

– COVID-19 hot spots
– Red states vs blue states

– Liberal/Democratic voters
– People who want to stay at home

– Conservative/Republican voters
– People who want to go back to work

Why are liberals always on the wrong end of every bet?

Losers admire losers:
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/worried-about-offending-trump-flaky-trudeau-humiliated-fellow-leaders-during-tpp-trade-talks-former-aussie-pm

#309 NFN_NLN on 04.21.20 at 6:30 pm

Nothing changes for the coward Justin Trudeau

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8FuHuUhNZ0&t=18s

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-premiers-say-no-to-trudeau-on-emergencies-act

#310 Death rates on 04.22.20 at 9:26 am

Why do people Compare useless charts and say see. You can twist any information and produce a chart for your argument.

Now use real data.

We know there have been 1,834 deaths as of yesterday over 50 odd days.

Let’s go to stats Canada for some real death numbers.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310070801&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.1

In March 2018 in Canada 25,271 Canadians died or about 842 per day. April is a little lower at 23,547

Now if you were really smart you would be demanding of our medical officers and politicians how many Canadians died of non Convid 19 during the crisis and now let’s compare that to 2018 and 2019 on a daily basis.

Are non Convid deaths increasing as a percentage of the Canadian population during this crisis?
Just asking?
Thanks again Garth
Everyone have a great day.