The V factor

At this time last year (the third week in April) 202 houses – detached and semis – sold in Toronto. This year sales were 30. Gulp. That’s a decline of 85%, showing just how nasty the virus has bitten. In all of the GTA (six million souls) the collapse was almost equal, at 80%.

Condos? Even worse. Sales of 231 in Toronto last year fell 86% to 32, and faded by 87% in the rest of the region. And look at this graphic showing the condo sales-to-new-listings ratio in the Big Smoke over the last few months. From 120% in February it crashed to about 10% last week. No showings, no sales. No sales, no market.

Toronto condo sales plop as pandemic panic pops

Not unique to Toronto, either. The same is happening in Vancouver, Victoria and Montreal. In Alberta it’s a full-blown economic crisis. In the flatlands, it might as well be January – things are frozen solid. So the questions are simple. Is this temporary and will demand/sales explode in August? Or is this a new normal – sellers afraid of buyers poking through their stuff; no more open houses; skittish mortgage lenders; people seeking distance over convenience?

Here are some of the current realities. Several of them will stick.

  • The suburbs are suddenly looking good. Back-to-the-land is back. Your hippie parents would understand.

For the last decade moisters flocked to the city. The denser the population, the better. More social interaction. More connections. Nightlife, networking and collaborative workspaces. Commuting was dissed and hated. Cars eschewed. Condos ruled. Walk to work. Live in a loft with dangly pipes and a bike elevator, next door to Starbucks.

The virus changed that, of course. City cores are germ factories The subway’s a death chamber. Maybe you’re breathing the same air your neighbour is. Yuck. Besides the Mills are now in full family-formation mode, so bringing up junior in a sea of concrete isn’t such a hot idea. Wouldn’t a back yard and a pooch be nice?

You bet. Just watch the renaissance happen. Minivans. Barbeques. Lawnmowers. Ant spray. The works. And the whole rural thing is the next phase. Now that nobody needs to actually go to work anywhere, why not?

  • Sales have crashed. Listings have crashed. Prices are holding as a result. However people selling really have to sell. Buyers have bargaining power.

As the virus hit and sales crashed, sellers retreated. Listings have dropped everywhere, which means average prices have remained reasonably steady as less demand meets lower supply. But this also means those who have kept their properties on the market really, really, really need to sell. Choice may be more limited, but the potential bargains are multiplying with each week this mess continues. If you’re in a position to strike with a meaningful, actionable offer, then go for it. You can even include a few conditions, if you want, like a home inspection. And write in what you fancy. Some furniture. The garden tractor. Dog.

  • Getting a loan is getting harder. A lot harder.

Yes, the virus has done a great job of dividing us into two groups – the creditworthy, bullet-proof elite (civil servants, teachers, first responders, essential service workers) and the tenuous riff-raff (small business owners, hairdressers, construction dudes, corporate vice-presidents, airline pilots, financial advisors, electricians). Credit is available and cheap, but risk has jumped dramatically. After all, 12% of all the mortgage-holders across the nation have asked for deferred payments, indicating distress. Four in ten Vancouver homeowners now say they’re approaching poochedness. The tide has gone out. Many are naked.

Lenders and brokers are therefore spending more time looking at a borrower’s job stability and financial status than in the past. When a pandemic arrives which infects few but bites everyone, even high-paying glam jobs can be wiped away in weeks. If you’re buying or refinancing, make sure you grovel – or get a job at Service Canada.

  • Condos are the past. Dirt is the future.

The condo market is in shambles. Pay attention. This could happen again. And again. The virus may return, widely or in pockets. For weeks or months. Nobody knows. But meanwhile whole condo buildings are sealed to non-residents. Showings are kaput. Inmates are worried about common areas, elevators and garbage rooms. Airbnb has collapsed and thousands of units will be coming on stream as a result.

Inherently people now want more space, distance, security. This will fuel interest in properties with their own plots of land, windows that open and gaps between residential structures. Besides, at $1,200 per foot (or above), urban condos in Toronto and YVR had become excessively, insanely, irrationally expensive. Lately the $1-million-plus-unit market has withered and died. There is a watershed moment coming for the cliff dwellers. Many will be shocked as they slide into negative equity.

Will these realities hold? Or is it impossible to see the future clearly through the fog of pandemic-inspired mass panic and economic destruction? Will house lust inevitably overcome the infection of fear?

Time will tell. But a cabin with three laying chickens and a creek suddenly beckons.

 

297 comments ↓

#1 Flop... on 04.19.20 at 11:55 am

#202 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 12:02 am

“Maybe Flopster could make the trip too, he might like to see a decent SFD that does not cost 1 million!”

/////////////////////////////

Happy Sunday Trackie!

I think, actually I know, this isn’t a real estate blog much anymore, and I have been keeping my findings to myself regarding the market,but since you gave me some rope, I will attempt to hang myself.

This house in my hood just sold for 950k for those still interested in what’s going on.

The will blow the other 50k on a garden full of kale, I am told…

M45BC

http://remax-selectvanbc.com/officelistings.html/listing.r2443120-3234-prince-edward-street-vancouver-v5v-3×5.91560576

#2 Flop... on 04.19.20 at 12:01 pm

“Yes, the virus has done a great job of dividing us into two groups – the creditworthy, bullet-proof elite (civil servants, teachers, first responders, essential service workers) and the tenuous riff-raff (small business owners, hairdressers, construction dudes, corporate vice-presidents, airline pilots, financial advisors, electricians)”

/////////////////////

Wow, the world is messed up!

That’s something I thought I’d never see.

I was placed in the same group as Billybob and Garth…

M45BC

#3 Still need to commute on 04.19.20 at 12:07 pm

Acreage in the lower mainland / Fraser Valley is still pricey.
1-3 acres in Maple Ridge for 1.4m is ridiculous!
Hoping prices will fall, but this article leads me to believe the opposite!

#4 Paul on 04.19.20 at 12:09 pm

With all this unemployment, if RE doesn’t eventually collapse then I don’t know what it will take for this to happen.

#5 Your 3rd Cousin...:) on 04.19.20 at 12:09 pm

#249 Shawn Allen on 04.19.20 at 11:47 am
#186 Cousin Jimmy on 04.18.20 at 10:20 pm
#169 Cousin Jimmy on 04.18.20 at 9:00 pm
#35 Shawn Allen on 04.18.20 at 11:23 am
“My 107 year old third couscin has actual personal memories of the Spanish Flu!”

“Right, 59, don’t assume everyone is on here is your age. The years go by fast, George would probably tell you the same.

Don’t assume that fact that third cousins are on average of the same age…”
—————————————————————-
I should have taken my own admonition on assuming. One makes an ass out of you and me…(Ass u me) Well hats off to cousin George and may he continue his long life. 107 is an amazing age!

#6 Lefty on 04.19.20 at 12:15 pm

Agreed on the condo futures, attached living in general I think will be a tough sell going forward. Even our fearless leader is hiding out in the backwoods (the PM, not you)

#7 Essential with a Cabin on 04.19.20 at 12:20 pm

My peers laughed at me when I remained in my small Halton GTA detached home and built a cabin on my acreage up both. Our 3 member family are all essential workers and we remain mentally strong at this point. Stay Safe.

#8 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 12:22 pm

Anyone care to revise their comments from last week? Trolls.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/19/there-are-no-missing-ventilators-elon-tesla-kept-their-promise/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwivn6vX8vToAhVBMH0KHcK0DwgQFjAAegQIAxAC&usg=AOvVaw1ycb54uIYPGPMxgQ578e2A&ampcf=1

#9 George on 04.19.20 at 12:25 pm

Could be worse , ya could be holding preferred shares . What a shit show , I tried to warn everyone

#10 Armpit on 04.19.20 at 12:34 pm

Garth…

Perhaps a poll on the dogs here if they live in urban/rural/suburbs, apt/condo/semi/detach/parents basement.

And where they intend to go in the next 5-10 years.

#11 Grunt on 04.19.20 at 12:34 pm

When there’s a vaccine or herd immunity will everyone want dirt then?

#12 Dave on 04.19.20 at 12:39 pm

Will Trump hit China with serious consequences for not acting sooner?

#13 Vanrenter on 04.19.20 at 12:45 pm

A follow up to yesterdays blog about personal financial strategies during the pandemic…

I am home with my adult children planning a new business for them that they will open post Covid.

2021 will be a great time to open with all the business’ that close. There will be an abundance of locations for lease and quality employees available.

On our to-do list…

Prepare a detailed business plan
Talk to industry experts
Read business books (I recommend the E-Myth)
Research the industry online
Choose a name and design a logo
Zoom with our accountant and lawyer
Etc etc – lots to do :)

“Entrepreneurship is living a few years of your life like others won’t so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can’t”

#14 TurnerNation on 04.19.20 at 12:46 pm

A bigger problem. Cash strapped owners and landlords without rental and B&B flow will forgo paying of condo fees.
As these cheaply built buildings age the pot will be dry for repairs. Expect Soviet era crumbling bloks.

A good convo starter. State ‘ Things have changed lots eh?’
Yah.
‘Well the good news is, I’ve asked around everyone I know and meet – with their deep networks – and nobody knows anyone who got it”.
Me too.
(Stand back as penny drops).

– Oh you know why it’s called social and not physical distance right? At that distance you cannot whisper. Private conversations in public are impossible.
You must talk loudly. In the old days local watchers would lurk. Now it’s for the A.I. to hear every conversation. Any “Smart” devices, starting with your phone is A.I.
Smart coffee makers have Ram and CPU capacity to rival any laptop. Why
On Wikipedia look up Smart dust.
It’s real. Everything is recording.
All to keep us safe and healthy right?

#15 shredder on 04.19.20 at 12:46 pm

tenuous riff-raff

You forgot surgeons….wasn’t there a recent report here about one making $900 large/yr now applying for Gov’t handouts?

#16 not 1st on 04.19.20 at 12:48 pm

Millennials are hilarious. First cant get into the market, now wont be able to get out.

#17 akashic record on 04.19.20 at 12:51 pm

DELETED

#18 Abc123 on 04.19.20 at 12:51 pm

So the questions are simple. Is this temporary and will demand/sales explode in August?
——

Sales and prices will explode in the GTA when and if of course ,even a modicum if
of business returns to the city.

Excess demand over whelming supply has not changed . Sentiment as strong as ever for RE. The environment for transacting the exchange of RE only has.

Bring normalcy to the sales process and watch what happens RE bears .

#19 But all the hipsters ... on 04.19.20 at 12:53 pm

would have to learn to drive and buy fossil fuel. Put a good used Toyota on my driveway with a sign on it that said “For Sale cheap.” Was willing to almost give it away as I had purchased a replacement. Many phoned as it was ideal for a young person but as soon as they heard it had a standard transmission, that was the end of the conversation. Nobody knows how to drive them anymore it seems. Finally sold it to a guy on a picket line who bought it to teach his son how to drive a standard.

#20 JM on 04.19.20 at 1:00 pm

Can someone explain to me how the markets won’t get clobbered? GT, you say the markets are forward looking…the future don’t look go good. I fear that Mr. Peart’s sentiment may be felt for quite some time.

“We can go from boom to bust
From dreams to a bowl of dust
We can fall from rockets’ red glare
Down to brother can you spare”

Economic contraction was priced into equities last month. Markets are looking forward to recover and smart investors are plucking off some of the incredible bargains in REITs and prefs. Stay invested. Stay balanced. – Garth

#21 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 1:01 pm

#1 Flop… on 04.19.20 at 11:55 am
#202 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 12:02 am

“Maybe Flopster could make the trip too, he might like to see a decent SFD that does not cost 1 million!”

/////////////////////////////

Happy Sunday Trackie!

I think, actually I know, this isn’t a real estate blog much anymore, and I have been keeping my findings to myself regarding the market,but since you gave me some rope, I will attempt to hang myself.

This house in my hood just sold for 950k for those still interested in what’s going on.

The will blow the other 50k on a garden full of kale, I am told…

M45BC

http://remax-selectvanbc.com/officelistings.html/listing.r2443120-3234-prince-edward-street-vancouver-v5v-3×5.91560576
——

Well at least that one isn’t a burnt out collapsing shell for that price like others we’ve seen out your way.

Out here, that place would be 300k tops.

I think the RE topic will be back, and maybe a different conversation going on next spring…

#22 James on 04.19.20 at 1:03 pm

Do not underestimate a potential secondary impact of condo prices tumbling.

As buildings become less attractive and less occupied the condo corporation will collect less in maintenance fees. This will happen if and when people bail because their extreme debt is no longer serviceable. I am looking at you AirBnB’ers and spec buyers.

When that time comes and buildings empty to an unexpected degree, how will repairs and maintenance take place?

Less money = less maintenance, = property value drops further.

Rinse and repeat.

I witnessed exactly this unfold in the 80’s when interest rates went through the roof and foreclosures ran rampant.

#23 Barb on 04.19.20 at 1:04 pm

The garden tractor. Dog.
Time will tell. But a cabin with three laying chickens and a creek suddenly beckons.

————————————

So maybe my 15 acre C-5 zoned property 10 minutes from town will sell.
But any seller who includes their dog is despicable beyond words.

#24 Yukon Elvis on 04.19.20 at 1:04 pm

#12 Dave on 04.19.20 at 12:39 pm
Will Trump hit China with serious consequences for not acting sooner?
…………………………..

I believe he will. And I think the rest of the world will not be far behind. This is bad news for China. They are going to take a fearsome beating over this and probably have a financial crisis too. Probably the end of their 6% growth per year if you believe that number. They will be lucky if their GDP does not decline by 6% per year. IMHO.

#25 Leftover on 04.19.20 at 1:04 pm

Prices haven’t collapsed quite yet as the housing market is in limbo (for those non-papists out there, limbo is the state a soul is in just prior to entering purgatory).

When it comes it will resemble past real estate purges, a 30% to 40% drop. That’s in general, for example houses in Vancouver might drop more than houses in Toronto.

If there is a crawl back, and there might not be due to the factors Garth mentions above, it normally takes at least 5 years though in Toronto in 1989 it took something like 12 years to recover to previous valuations.

Time to buy in a couple of months? Maybe, but no need to rush.

#26 Dogman01 on 04.19.20 at 1:06 pm

#4 Paul on 04.19.20 at 12:09 pm

With all this unemployment, if RE doesn’t eventually collapse then I don’t know what it will take for this to happen.

—————————————————–

This is the ultimate test, if it holds then going all in on RE is a sure thing.

I can’t understand how Canadians cannot see that shelter has been used to lower the standard of living for all.

An perfect strategy as it kills the net generation but maintains the illusion of a wealth increase for the vested segment of the population.

#27 Damifino on 04.19.20 at 1:08 pm

Dirt will be less popular when those lured by a sentimental view of a deep rural lifestyle find out they’ll be getting a quite bit of it on their hands.

They’ll also be working much harder for the privilege. I predict a short-lived resurgence of “The Whole Earth Catalog” followed by a return to the pursuit of comfort and convenience.

#28 Same ol' story on 04.19.20 at 1:09 pm

Unless there is a huge correction in prices, none of this means anything.

#29 Sold Out on 04.19.20 at 1:10 pm

#8 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 12:22 pm
Anyone care to revise their comments from last week? Trolls.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/19/there-are-no-missing-ventilators-elon-tesla-kept-their-promise/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwivn6vX8vToAhVBMH0KHcK0DwgQFjAAegQIAxAC&usg=AOvVaw1ycb54uIYPGPMxgQ578e2A&ampcf=1

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Not in the slightest. Musk sent Bi-PAP and CPAP machines, not ventilators. Some moderately ill patients can have their airways gently assisted by them, but not the critically ill. Neither of these devices is a “ventilator”; rather they are designed to keep one’s airway open, not to deliver O2 to the lungs.

Mostly used for treatment of sleep apnea.

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/493386-california-hospitals-say-elon-musk-sent-them-bipap-cpap-machines-not

#30 akashic record on 04.19.20 at 1:11 pm

#17 akashic record on 04.19.20 at 12:51 pm

DELETED

You will remember this some day.
Call it a hunch.

Remember what? – Garth

#31 Watcher on 04.19.20 at 1:13 pm

How quickly that sentiment shifted.

Thanks Garth. Appreciate your time and effort.

#32 Grunt on 04.19.20 at 1:14 pm

100 years ago Toronto’s harbor was heavily industrialized. Today it’s wall-to-wall vertical. Could it become more horizontal? Is the future for many of Toronto’s financial ditrict towers & condos harbour infill to the islands?

#33 Then they came for the sex workers! on 04.19.20 at 1:21 pm

Well this is a slam dunk for T2… he can’t say no!

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-sex-workers-say-theyre-at-risk-have-been-left-out-of-canadas-covid-3/

#34 Figure it Out on 04.19.20 at 1:22 pm

Oh give me a home
Where the Subarus roam
The last mile is V22bis

But Amazon Prime
Won’t get there in time
Gene Autry was taking the piss

#35 TrmpNation on 04.19.20 at 1:23 pm

I already found my small piece of land down in Miami. Good luck to all, and remember Garth’s advise: Never bet against America.

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.19.20 at 1:25 pm

@#2 Flop
“I was placed in the same group as Billybob and Garth…”

++++

Then just be glad you’re posting anonymously under a pseudonym…!

#37 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 1:28 pm

#234 Doug Rowat on 04.19.20 at 10:26 am
#214 BillyBob on 04.19.20 at 6:38 am
I applaud the concept behind today’s post – it’s always good to periodically review ones expenses and remove any unnecessary clutter. But ultimately it’s only a bandaid solution that may field a few temporary bucks – for most people the problem is their whole attitude to money, saving, and living within their means.

Throwing a few things on Craigslist isn’t going to change that.

Selling household items was one of 10 suggestions, which I figured most cynical commenters would key on to dismiss the entire list. You did not disappoint.

It’s also a 700-word blog post. It was only intended to make a small contribution to people’s finances. Did you expect it to solve the recession? Fix all investor misbehaviour?

You could have made a small contribution yourself. But you didn’t.

–Doug
———

I think the “Kijiji economy” is totally a good way to make some tax free cash. It’s not uncommon for me to have an envelope with 3-4 grand sitting in it, it’s been near 10 grand on occasion. I sell stuff continuously.

Just this year, Kijiji cash paid for my new (to me) guitar, and brand new 100w head and 2×12 cabinet right from Long and McQuade. Also an ss laundry tub. I’m down to about 100.00 left right now.

Selling your unwanted things and turning the cash around on things I want (also bought on Kijiji) has left my chequing account unscathed almost every time.

I already have a list of stuff that has to go this year which should bring 3.5-4K. Plans are in place on how to spend that cash too :D

#38 YouKnowWho on 04.19.20 at 1:31 pm

Garth,

Nothing has changed. Nothing.

The young should not be afraid of Covid-19 at all. You know this well Garth.

If the odds on growth of market were like the odds of young person’s recovery from Covid-19, you’d get a LOC against Bandit to invest in the young in this Covid-19 situation.

The old wrinklies are afraid of Covid-19. Out of the city with them into Brantford, etc. As was always the case.

What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger.

Covid-19 is no exception.

The way I see it, the Chinese Virus is a 3 prong threat.

1. The Wrinklies – clearly. Chopping down the dry old trees like the spring wind. Everyone’s time comes.

2. The ones who took their health for granted like dummies. The smokers of cigarettes. Weed. The users of recreational drugs. Those considering LCBO essential service and need. Those eating away their health – even if it is you vs. thousands of scientists trying to stuff you with sugars and carbs through subconscious addiction. Those taking their mobility for granted, sitting, not being active. What did you think? It was a free-pass to neglect and abuse the gift that is your body? Not using your brain to figure out a way to have fun the smart way?

3. Those young people who through drawing a short straw from DNA’s hand have some compromised health issues – I do feel for this group most. Natural selection is a [email protected]#.

But let’s not blow this case of sniffles out of proportion.

HOW MUCH LONGER will the youth of the world put up with this crap?

The scared wrinklies want the young to stop having fun. Stop holding hands. Stop kissing. Stop having opportunities. Stop meeting someone. Stop having sex! Stop starting families.

PUT IT ALL ON HOLD YOUTH OF THE WORLD! So they can make it from 84 to 86!

That’s a tough sale. Call me cold, but NO SALE here.

My conversations have shown the young to be even more terrified of the virus that the mature. They all think if they contract it, they die. When you get your world view from Twitter, whaddya expect? – Garth

#39 TalkingPie on 04.19.20 at 1:32 pm

I think it’s only logical that sales have currently all but stopped; I’m actually surprised that there were as many as there were. In the same vein, I’m not currently getting new tires mounted on my summer convertible or needlessly going to Home Depot to buy non-essential landscaping supplies – but I will, as soon as things settle down, because I still want and/or need them.

With houses it may well be similar. A house isn’t like a haircut or going out to eat – you don’t buy one often, and usually you can wait a few months in order to do it if the conditions aren’t right. Right now we’re sort of in a limbo.

The question is: When will things open back up, and will the demand for housing remain? I think it’s too early to tell. If people are once again gainfully employed, and Air BnBers can get back to renting out to tourists, we may well be right back where we were three months ago. Alternately, if people are losing their incomes and desperate to sell once the Trudeau bucks stop, we may see a different reality. Time will tell.

Personally, I rented in downtown Montreal for ten years, and it was good for me as a single twenty-something who was going to university part-time and starting to build a nest egg. Even then, I always knew I eventually wanted space – some land and a garage to call my own – and I now have those. I’m very happy with it, but I think the demand to live downtown will always remain high among the population in general.

#40 TurnerNation on 04.19.20 at 1:34 pm

No. Buying land or going rural will not work.
At this point it’s all about driving us Off the land (and self sustenance) and control of food supply.
Evidence is all here folks:
– All of North America is under an outdoor burn ban. No campfires or cooking self sustainability is allowed.
– Many US states have banned hunting fishing and boating. You no longer are allowed your own food supply.
-Most states banned purchase of non essential items. Store aisles are roped off. Even Amazon enforces this. This would include gardening products.
– Herding us into controlled cities (Toronto Google Smart city) and a limited food supply is the goal.
– Parks beaches and so on are off limits the land has been taken away from you.

Never forget it always was CROWN land. Coronation. Corona. Crown. This is the final land grab.

#41 TurnerNation on 04.19.20 at 1:40 pm

All boat launches are closed. You cannot go fishing and sustain yourself.
All to keep us safe and healthy right? This is the final land grab. Stay home and off the land they tell us

#42 NoName on 04.19.20 at 1:43 pm

#8 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 12:22 pm
Anyone care to revise their comments from last week? Trolls.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/19/there-are-no-missing-ventilators-elon-tesla-kept-their-promise/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwivn6vX8vToAhVBMH0KHcK0DwgQFjAAegQIAxAC&usg=AOvVaw1ycb54uIYPGPMxgQ578e2A&ampcf=1

Comon SA, you difference between sleep apnia machine and ventilator. Yes some sleep apnia machines can be converted to be use as a ventilator, but delivery box has to be much bigger to accommodate for bladder or pressurized cylinder.

https://twitter.com/flcnhvy/status/1251318202321305606

#43 MF on 04.19.20 at 1:45 pm

#18 Abc123 on 04.19.20 at 12:51

Lol the only “demand” is for mortgages and debt. The second that easy access is reduced down goes the whole deck of cards.

Oh yeah. Almost forgot about the interest rates that are being desperately manipulated down by the US fed to the tune of what 15 billion a month lol. When that stops -and it has to- and rates rise and teeny tiny bit it’s all over.

Demand can disappear real quick.

MF

#44 Enlightened on 04.19.20 at 1:46 pm

Hi Garth. Off Topic.
Watched a Netflix good feel movie called The Healer. Corney a bit, but it was set in Lunenburg NS. I tried to get a glimpse of the BMO building without but could not spot it. You probably already know about it but thought I would mention it. Nice little town you have there :)

It’s on my agenda to explain why I chose this place. It did not just happen. – Garth

#45 Joseph R. on 04.19.20 at 1:50 pm

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/08/29/where-theres-smoke-2/

You wrote that entry in 2018. Have you heard back from that couple since then? I can only They must have lost about 30% of the portfolio last month?

Or, for that matter, any other member of the FIRE Movement?

#46 Nottawa Housing Bust on 04.19.20 at 1:51 pm

#18 Abc123

I do not think sales will be exploding for some time. I am currently shopping for a house (we sold in October when! and renting)
And I am seeing a lot of relisting after conditional offer.
On brand new houses so home inspection no issue. Its financing. Banks are demanding more down as a hedge to falling prices.
This is what will crash market. Tightened credit markets. It’s what wiped out the US market and it will hit here but to a lesser extent. No matter what though, if major fin institutions think prices will fall. They will fall. Simpler as that.

#47 Phil on 04.19.20 at 1:53 pm

Speaking of Mr. Trudeau:
Folks are getting angry…starting to realize they’ve been had…many agendas.
Saw the Trudeau presser and it reminded me of groundhog day. The nervous little rodent comes out of his den to give his prognostication…if he sees his shadow it’s 4 more weeks of isolation. Then he scuttles back into his burrow.
We should call him our Punxsutawney PM!

#48 Trojan House on 04.19.20 at 1:55 pm

As of tomorrow, you will be required to wear a mask when flying. Judging by the comments section over on mainstream media sites, people are afraid, very afraid. They want to wear masks everywhere now even when (and if) things start opening up – for example, on public transit. They’re also saying that social or physical distancing, whatever they’re calling it now, should remain in place as well.

Thanks to governments and the MSM scaring the crap outta people, things will not return to “normal” for a long, long time apparently.

#49 Keyboard Smasher on 04.19.20 at 1:56 pm

Just IMAGINE getting swindled for half a million or more dollars to get locked up in a concrete human hive covered in various biogenic residues and secretions…

As the urgency to liquidate this garbage-tier asset classes accelerates, will there be any good opportunities to profit?

Is there an instrument to short the condo market?

#50 TurnerNation on 04.19.20 at 1:56 pm

If you want the final proof.
Look around your city or town. Where are all police and bylaw enforcement resources stationed with visible presence? Where are the tickets handed out?
On the LAND. All parks, closed beaches, bike paths, school fields etc . The signs posted state do not stop. Keep walking. Do not sit down. Like a minefield.
Where is the yellow caution tape posted? Playgrounds, soccer fields. All have been taken away from you.
The message is clear. You will be punished for being on the land.
It’s not your land. It’s the Crown’s. Final land grab.

#51 ts on 04.19.20 at 1:56 pm

#18Abc123 on 04.19.20 at 12:51 pm

“Sales and prices will explode in the GTA when and if of course ,even a modicum if
of business returns to the city”

Wishful thinking. With high unemployment and some barely making it, where will this demand come from? Condo dwellers are stuck, so no way to move up. Hmm—- re seems like it will be toast and ready for a huuuuuge price drop.

#52 Paul on 04.19.20 at 2:03 pm

Ah yes mortgages the banks?have they tightened choked is more like it.
Some what rural House sells $520,000 the back says no $170,000 down. Looking private willing to pay 7% still no takers as yet.

#53 MF on 04.19.20 at 2:07 pm

#172 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.20 at 9:14 pm

“While the rest of us non union losers go through our daily grind to earn enough money to pay the bills and save up enough money to maybe, j-u-u-u-st maybe, ”

-And there’s your problem. You should have made different choices in life if that’s what you value.

You’re entire argument looks like a personal issue more than anything evidence based.

Start here:

https://www.tdsb.on.ca/About-Us/Employment/Teaching/Secondary

MF

#54 Bucky on 04.19.20 at 2:07 pm

I have co-workers in YVR who’s life I glimpse on Zoom meetings (I’m not even in the same time zone). Looking and sounding very, um, cozy with both parents working from home and kids all hanging in condo boxes downtown. Not saying the lifestyle doesn’t partially offset this, but if the space was an issue before, this has to be giving them a push to bolt for the hinterlands. After all, what is the advantage of spending a fortune to be close to an office a few blocks away when you can work remotely? Commercial office REITs may be a bit dodgy for the next few months.

#55 TalkingPie on 04.19.20 at 2:08 pm

#26 Joseph R. on 04.19.20 at 1:50 pm

You wrote that entry in 2018. Have you heard back from that couple since then? They must have lost about 30% of the portfolio last month?

Or, for that matter, any other member of the FIRE Movement?

********************************************

This couple, former clients of Garth’s, was featured – and even did a Q&A – on here: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/05/20/chutzpah-2/

From the sounds of it, despite all the naysayers, they’re doing just fine.
https://www.millennial-revolution.com/

The name of their website is stupid, but their story and their free self-investing workshop are not.

#56 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 2:09 pm

#13 Vanrenter on 04.19.20 at 12:45 pm

A follow up to yesterdays blog about personal financial strategies during the pandemic…

I am home with my adult children planning a new business for them that they will open post Covid.

——————-

Good luck!

#57 oh bouy on 04.19.20 at 2:12 pm

For sure some of the more paranoid folk will head for the hills. as well as the ones priced out of the cities.
Over all I don’t think it’ll take long for most to go back to what was their normal a few months ago. at least the ones who are still employable.

#58 Abc123 on 04.19.20 at 2:15 pm

#51 ts on 04.19.20 at 1:56 pm
#18Abc123 on 04.19.20 at 12:51 pm

“Sales and prices will explode in the GTA when and if of course ,even a modicum if
of business returns to the city”

Wishful thinking. With high unemployment and some barely making it, where will this demand come from? Condo dwellers are stuck, so no way to move up. Hmm—- re seems like it will be toast and ready for a huuuuuge price drop.
——///-

Oh boy, another same old same old post I have been reading for over 10 years on this blog with the usual “ huuuge” or “ look at below” or proverbial “ crash” adjectives thrown in for colour.

No drop , no crash in price even with the temporary drop in sales . Plenty of demand ,to overwhelm supply , including foreign buyers and commenters on the site and blog, just waiting to pounce .

In fact, you’re probably one of the buyers in line waiting for a price bargain. Nope , keep waiting.

#59 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 2:17 pm

#23 Barb on 04.19.20 at 1:04 pm

The garden tractor. Dog.
Time will tell. But a cabin with three laying chickens and a creek suddenly beckons.

——————-

So maybe my 15 acre C-5 zoned property 10 minutes from town will sell.

But any seller who includes their dog is despicable beyond words.

——————-

Oh, it’s fine. We’ve taken over a number of dogs over the years and they’ve all accepted the new arrangement quite easily. Although some like to think dogs have deep and abiding loyalty to a single person or family, my experience is that they’re all about the pack, regardless who it is, and they adapt seamlessly.

There are probably outliers, but I haven’t seen it.

#60 oh bouy on 04.19.20 at 2:17 pm

@#34 TrmpNation on 04.19.20 at 1:23 pm
I already found my small piece of land down in Miami. Good luck to all, and remember Garth’s advise: Never bet against America.
____________________________________

have fun dodging bullets and hurricanes

#61 MC on 04.19.20 at 2:20 pm

Garth – always love the content, your insights on everything are always bang on.. all aside from your insistence that cities and urbanity is going away… this didn’t happen in London, Tokyo, NYC and despite this latest virus, isn’t going to happen here. With world population approaching 8 B, like it or not, denser areas are where citizens will be living and the unsustainable suburban lifestyle won’t be where people flock to.

No comment was made about cities “going away” or people “flocking” to less dense locations. But the virus will rekindle interest in non-urban living. – Garth

#62 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 2:21 pm

#36 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 1:28 pm

IH, just wondering for the bbq: where exactly do you keep that envelope of cash?

#63 PVS on 04.19.20 at 2:25 pm

“A word to the wise is sufficient”.

Governments and influential figures around the globe must repeat simple and common sense messages to their citizenry on a daily basis in order to manage this complex crisis. Similar, this site needs to frequently remind some that if you have nothing good (valuable) to say, simply read the article and reflect. Many times, less is more. The wise can learn something every day, especially during these rare historical moments.

#64 Figure it Out on 04.19.20 at 2:30 pm

#42 NoName

If you’re debating the Tesla dweebs whether an obsolete CPAP machine counts as a ventilator, they’re already winning. GM is already delivering newly built ventilators, Elon still hasn’t finished the solar roof of his Nevada factory. He whiffs on his easy promises, no need to debate the tricky ones.

#65 Camille on 04.19.20 at 2:32 pm

Holy shmoly. Whole condo buildings sealed to non-residents! Wow. Must be really bad.
Ok, well time for everyone including millenials to get back to work. Can’t spend everyday walking in the park with the wife, pushing the baby carriage, dragging the designer dog. Have to pay for the condo (yes, that where they’re living) and Audi. Can’t do pretend work at home and get paid full salary. Wear the mask. Practice social distancing and whatever else is required.
Approximately 1500 deaths in Canada, maybe half in care facilities, which were neglected. 37,000,000 population. Make the plan, work it. Get back to work. Leaders start leading.

#66 Stay Invested on 04.19.20 at 2:34 pm

First to Akashic records, you do realize making threats can have you charged! And unless you can read the records you should change your name. Because very very few people in Canada can open them safely.

Back to Garth,

Remember me I was going to sell as I was fed up.
Anyway while you made fun of me indirectly it did keep me invested. And I am happy to say I am now up almost 1 percent since December. So thanks for that.

I am still very worried, perhaps I read to much news perhaps I overthink the unemployed and the economy and shuttering small business topped with people not paying rent and mortgages. And then holy moly Batman government borrowing. Then half of analyst say run away inflation half say deflation.
Then we have medical people who are just as bad at forecasting as economist. And Advising the government not sure which is worst.

The only smart thing I have read is we are in totally uncharted waters! No kidding

Then you write and Say stay invested.

So I know it’s wise words, and yes short term crazy market swings larger than a roller coaster, and long term return to some kind of profit for some industries.

I don’t want to put you on a spot but are you not a little worried about this massive debt? I know gold may not be the answer but do you see a problem in a few years or you don’t worry that far out, and that not meant to be sarcastic.

Thanks for your posts and please ban the idiot.
Cheers

Debt is an issue and it will bring more taxes. But it will also foster an increase in inflation and ultimately interest rates. Stay invested. – Garth

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.19.20 at 2:36 pm

@#53 MF
“You’re entire argument looks like a personal issue more than anything evidence based.”
++++

As a business owner and taxpayer….yeah its personal…..

I liked you better when you just felt sorry for me……

Tell you what.
When the tax revenues are down, waaaaaay down, and the govt temporary layoffs for the public sector become permanent…..I’ll feel sorry for you, ok?

#68 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 2:40 pm

#62 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 2:21 pm
#36 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 1:28 pm

IH, just wondering for the bbq: where exactly do you keep that envelope of cash?
——

I put it on the cement floor of my drive shed, then drive the TD9’s left track over top of it.

It’s safe as long as no one comes along that knows how to start a 50’s vintage gas-diesel crawler.

I may break some of that envelope cash out for you however, if you show up at the bbq with some fresh smoked Alaskan Steelhead :D

#69 Off Duty on 04.19.20 at 2:41 pm

Feeling good in the Oakville hood. Especially with the single freehold detached mortgage being paid off Jan 31 2020. First responder defined benefit pension and living a good life slightly below ones means for years.

How are financial advisors in the 2nd group? I can understand if one was just starting out and trying to “build a book” but if one was established they should be receiving their % from the investments every month no?

Only thing of concern these days is how JT will come after the folks who were prepared through increased taxes. That and when one can travel again.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.19.20 at 2:44 pm

@ MF

I’ll see your “Continuing Education” link and raise you to the Ontario Sunshine list of all 166,000 public sector workers making over $100,000 per year.

https://www.ontario.ca/page/public-sector-salary-disclosure

A vast majority work for schools oddly enough…….

I wont bother with their pensions today…

#71 Tudval on 04.19.20 at 2:47 pm

At this point, the city is closed, so it’s quite a waste of time to compile stats on sales and draw any conclusions. Apparently there are plans in works to open things up soon and there would be little long term damage if this can be done gradually within the next couple of months. About non-urban living.. lol, all the best services are in the city and will always be. For the young, for the middle aged and for the elderly. Even if you don’t care about schools, shopping, entertainment etc.. etc.. at least you might still be thinking about health care. The #1 factor, by far, of surviving a health crisis is proximity to a hospital equipped to take care of your problem.

Actually, #1 is a primary care provider. Do some research on physicians-per-population/location. – Garth

#72 Smart Millenials on 04.19.20 at 2:47 pm

Millennials are smarter than the Boomers. Too many boomers screwed up their life in marriage and divorce mess. Boomers wasted millions of dollars in marriage and kids. Millenials are living different. Most millennials are forgoing marriage and family. The goals have changed. Now people want to retire early and have a lot of different experiences including travel. Condo living will not go away. There are benefits to living in the city which suburbs cannot offer.

#73 PSL on 04.19.20 at 2:50 pm

Economic contraction was priced into equities last month. Markets are looking forward to recover and smart investors are plucking off some of the incredible bargains in REITs and prefs. Stay invested. Stay balanced. – Garth
_________________________________

wishful thinking. the fallout hasn’t even begun. there will be no recovery yet.

this is a 9/11 moment. market got slammed. then recovered 25-35% over the next few months. by mid 2002 the market was in free fall making new lows as reality hit.

same as when Bear Sterns went belly up in the spring of 2008. first shoe to drop before reality hit later that year.

the fed is in the midst of printing 60 TRILLION dollars to support bankrupt companies, bankrupt individuals, bankrupt state and local governments, bankrupt pension plans….

Singapore’s Hin Leong Trading (Pte) Ltd owes $4 billion to it’s creditors. Taking huge losses on oil trading. anyone here thinks they’re the only ones? how many more cockroaches will come out of the woodwork?

This is a slow motion disaster that will take months if not longer to play out.

So don’t invest. Let’s compare portfolios in two years. – Garth

#74 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 2:52 pm

#27 Damifino on 04.19.20 at 1:08 pm
Dirt will be less popular when those lured by a sentimental view of a deep rural lifestyle find out they’ll be getting a quite bit of it on their hands.

They’ll also be working much harder for the privilege. I predict a short-lived resurgence of “The Whole Earth Catalog” followed by a return to the pursuit of comfort and convenience.
— —-

Getting dirty becomes enjoyable after a while. A lot of the work invested in a pc of property, a garden, or construction/reno projects is highly gratifying. I keep looking at my wood pile every time I walk past the window. Then I start thinking about what other trees I need to take down (to make the pile bigger ha ha!).

I think Mr T is right. The whole homesteading/prepper/minimalist/alternate living movement was kicked off by the GFC. Some folks wanted out of debt, and off the treadmill. Many did so via a simplistic, hands on lifestyle where no job, and little cash was needed. This virus is going to spark some similar sentiment.

#75 Mr. Market? on 04.19.20 at 2:56 pm

Economic contraction was priced into equities last month. Markets are looking forward to recover and smart investors are plucking off some of the incredible bargains in REITs and prefs. Stay invested. Stay balanced. – Garth

———————————————————

Sorry Garth, not buying it. Markets have been propped up with unprecedented trillions in stimulus, that’s it. Investors and markets flying blind as they drive up prices with little to no economic data to support it while ignoring catastrophic job losses, mass bankruptcies and collapsing GDP with atrocious corporate earnings that will last at least a year with no crystal ball of how this all turns out. Let’s not even talk about a mushroom cloud of government debt exploding across the globe.

Forward thinking, seriously? Why bother having corrections and bear markets at all when you can just glaze over and ignore disastrous economic data while always looking ahead to better times? Anyone can see that this “market recovery” (the mother of all sucker rallies) is wayyyyyyyyyyy ahead of itself and is in no way rational. Unless someone can show us a fancy chart of what may very well become a world wide depression that only lasted 3 weeks according to stock market values, in the past 120 years.

Multi billionaires like Buffet are not sitting on hundreds of billions in cash for nothing.

Of course there is no depression, nor will there be one. The economy was tuned off. It will be turned on. This was not a structural event. Yes, fiscal and monetary policy are stimulating markets and that will continue until corporate profits restore. But stay in cash and enjoy the 0.05% returns. – Garth

#76 Flail Away on 04.19.20 at 3:02 pm

I see your silly defense of Elon’s most recent nonsense from a Tesla FanBoy Site with the always acerbic New York Post which calls Elon a “Covidiot” – hahah, love it. (link below)

Elon Musk is tech Covidiot No. 1 during coronavirus pandemic

https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/elon-musk-is-tech-covidiot-no-1-during-coronavirus-pandemic/

Hey Elon, first rule of business, under promise, over deliver not the opposite.

#77 Don Guillermo on 04.19.20 at 3:06 pm

#47 Phil on 04.19.20 at 1:53 pm
Speaking of Mr. Trudeau:
Folks are getting angry…starting to realize they’ve been had
******************************************

Should of known you were had the moment he said “because it’s 2015”

#78 YouKnowWho on 04.19.20 at 3:06 pm

My conversations have shown the young to be even more terrified of the virus that the mature. They all think if they contract it, they die. When you get your world view from Twitter, whaddya expect? – Garth

Garth,

Absolutely! I’ve made it a point to talk to the young in the social distancing lines and indeed, CBC – Coronavirus Broadcasting Corporation and the other 24/7 Covid-19 TV channels have scared them into oblivion. I wrote about it here a few times to share my street level research weight the blog dogs.

I cannot believe how easy it was to scare them into obedience. Critical thinking is in short supply without doubt Garth, as you well know. I mean, this whole bloody blog raison d être is to get people to think critically, and you know what a thankless job that is. Same inability to think critically pushed the young to take on crazy debt to buy crazy over priced 400sqft condos, is what makes them so easy to control with Covid-19.

The young have been turned into such germaphobes, they will probably never again even attempt to exchange bodily fluids with another human being again!

It’s crazy how easy the wrinklies have had it with the young.
– They’ve taken their wealth.
– They’ve loaded them up with debt.
– They’ve taken away all their fun to ensure wrinklies own safety.
– They’ve taken away young’s futures and opportunities.

All that’s left is to harvest the young for fresh blood full of goodness and hormones and of course plasma full of Covid-19 antibodies!

Anyhow, I didn’t say the aren’t afraid in my original comment. I say they should not be. But we are in 100% agreement – they are soft and scared. Well, maybe not the 30-50 year olds, but anyone up to nearly 30 – chicken! And they are the LEAST likely to even have symptoms! How crazy is that?

OH, and agreed 100%
Twitter, FaceBook, all the social media cesspools have indeed made critical thinking even shorter in supply.
Lack of critical thinking in the young maybe the #1 product of social networks, and perhaps the entire internet Garth. Hard to avoid the internet though, so I avoid social networks and tread the rest of the world wide webs carefully.

You ever hear about that ONE guy on the planet who has never typed http://www.facebook.com into a browser URL bar?

That’s me!

So to summarize, indeed Garth, the youth are doing it to themselves.

Even with Amazon! Which is quite funny actually.

That guy who’s name we know (but I’m afraid to name for fear of his F.U. money being unleashed on me) who owns Amazon is a relentless villain who’s entire business plan appears to be based around his fondness of Connery era James Bond villains. He probably likes his women to all him, Dr. No…Competition Relentless Goldfinger! No abbreviations.

This is an old joke, but go ahead, type in relentless.com into your browser, see what happens. See?

#79 Stan Brooks on 04.19.20 at 3:13 pm

Not just dirt, productive dirt. Farmland.

Dirt in the big cities/all those small backyards is worth nothing.

Organic farm with solar system, own water source, fertile land, a greenhouse, close to a river/see/lake, plenty of fishing, gorgeous weather, own vineyard, 24 degrees in march. Available in Spain, Italy, France, Eastern Europe after the virus. Maybe some places Florida and Texas/with some compromises.

Much better and many times cheaper than a shoe-box glass noisy cold condo in the big city with giant mortgage, no job and huge maintenance and property taxes. But hey, the lobby is great, enjoy it.

Debt is ‘the issue’. Other people’s debt driving inflation and your prices higher. Insane competition in everything incentivized by governments. First it was housing, now food, soon water and oxygen. Retirement impossible. No jobs for the young. But higher taxes.

Cheers,

#80 akashic record on 04.19.20 at 3:13 pm

#30 akashic record

Remember what? – Garth

The content you censored – assuming you listened to it.

Yup. Delete-worthy. Take your tinfoil elsewhere. – Garth

#81 YouKnowWho on 04.19.20 at 3:13 pm

Garth,

One question please. Quick Yes or No answer.

Did you ever think you would live in a world where the economies of the planet would be suspended and youth of the world submit into total control over a a disease who’s brother and sister is the common cold? A disease that’s in the young people’s camp?

#82 Flop... on 04.19.20 at 3:14 pm

Below is one of my posts from late last year.

They were derided at the time, but it could work out well for them.

Maybe these guys knew what was coming?

Yeah, right!

They grabbed a structure about as basic as you can get on a plot of land for under 500k in Greater Vancouver.

That could be the new Mission…

M45BC

//////////////////////////////////

#2 Flop… on 11.17.19 at 3:55 pm

Bit of garden shed talk on here.

Reminded me of this garden shed in Maple Ridge that recently sold for 450k.

We are told to shovel all our net worth into real estate.

Before late 2016 there were lots of shiny tools in the Vancouver real estate shed.

Mr Market pulled out his trusty old Correction Broom that he had been lying dormant for around 15 years.

Since then a lot of people have been raked…

https://idx.myrealpage.com/wps/-/facebook~1,preview~1,_wf~520/mylistings/414/listing.r2382156-13385-232-street-maple-ridge-v4r-2r6.89118163

#83 Manitoulin Martin on 04.19.20 at 3:18 pm

“Time will tell. But a cabin with three laying chickens and a creek suddenly beckons.”

How about 200 acres of gently rolling hills and a hardwood forest in the world’s largest fresh water island, the gem of the Great Lakes, Manitoulin Island. To boot, the greatest sunsets on the planet, star filled night views that are unmatched and surrounded by beautiful Lake Huron. This is what the locals, known as Haweaters call paradise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manitoulin_Island

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haweater

#84 Penny Henny on 04.19.20 at 3:20 pm

I got to say if there is one good thing that has come out of this virus scare is at least I don’t have the Jehovah Witnesses knocking on my door every other week.

#85 Keith in Rio on 04.19.20 at 3:20 pm

No one is going to want to live in the idyllic ‘burbs, unless the current millions strong throng of “work at home” employees is allowed to continue to, well, work at home.

Good luck with that. Employers being the controlling narcissistic asshats that they are.

Right now in YYC you cannot sell anything in the suburbs that is not located on the C-train line (within a one block walk walking distance). People will not sit in traffic for 1-2 hours each way, each day.

Sorry to pop your bubble their Jedidiah…….

That must explain the 30% commercial vacancy rate in Calgary. – Garth

#86 akashic record on 04.19.20 at 3:21 pm

#44 Enlightened on 04.19.20 at 1:46 pm

Hi Garth. Off Topic.
Watched a Netflix good feel movie called The Healer. Corney a bit, but it was set in Lunenburg NS. I tried to get a glimpse of the BMO building without but could not spot it. You probably already know about it but thought I would mention it. Nice little town you have there :)

It’s on my agenda to explain why I chose this place. It did not just happen. – Garth

I also watched it, looks like a great place.

#87 Dolce Vita on 04.19.20 at 3:22 pm

After reading a couple of days ago that 94% of Canadians in Panic Porn over C19, Gov and Health Officers have to start reporting Ro numbers & the Cdn MSM has to ask God for more brains, dumb and dumber.

Italia used Ro to open a chunk of its economy April 14 when Ro = 1 and so far so good. A couple of days ago Ro = 0.8 (0.7 per the Bugs People means it over). Much more of the economy to open in early May. And so far, so good.

It’s not just the Italians, Germans too. They hit 0.7 a day or so ago which is excellent. Merkel is going to start opening up the economy next week, in Phases it reads, like Italia is doing (Cdn MSM will tell you they are Card Shops).

Then you read the Cdn MSM “2 bricks short of a full load” take on Germany opening up based on Ro:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-16/coronavirus-s-relentless-march-in-europe-clouds-reopening-plans

Where the author thinks if deaths, cases increasing how can Ro be useful?

Forgets that the recovery time for C19 in mild cases is approximately 2 weeks and is 3-6 weeks for patients with severe or critical disease.

WHICH MEANS there are deaths to come from cases BEFORE when Ro > 1 or >> 1.

Why I said, dumb and dumber & divine intervention for grey matter needed.

———————————

SO GOV CANADA & HEALTH OFFICERS, grab a brain, tell Cdns their regional Ro so they have an idea of when it’s going to end instead of talking about the usual BS “flattening curve” or “in a few weeks” which, FFS say nothing, tells them nothing of when it will be over.

You know Gov Canada & Health Officers you would be talking to the most highly educated populace on Planet Earth…I think they can negotiate the Ro concept.

People like milestones to shoot for or beat, give them some, numbers better that “Flat Earth” euphemisms.

BTW Ro common knowledge in Italia and Germany, Ministry of Health sites talk about it and explain it and both Health Ministers let the public know the Ro number.

Then in Canada…

Let people have an idea when their Civil Liberties will be returned to them.

#88 Deplorable dude on 04.19.20 at 3:22 pm

The politicians know….they just aren’t explicitly saying it yet.

We will be under partial social distancing until a vaccine is found (if ever). Our BC government said as much in yesterday’s update.

That appears to be the only option they are considering.

Could be a couple of years…if we’re lucky.

So no large group gatherings until then. I can see entire industries being wiped out, e.g. Restaurants, sports leagues/venues.

Seems insane to me. Kids are basically immune, and most folks of working age are fine unless they pre existing conditions.

Just seems the overriding factor is we cannot allow hospitals to be overwhelmed regardless of impact on society.

I just hope with a huge amount of testing we find a large amount of herd immunity, and we can pin down effective viral treatment drugs.

#89 Stan Brook's Psychiatrist on 04.19.20 at 3:23 pm

#79 Stan Brooks on 04.19.20 at 3:13 pm

“Not just dirt, productive dirt. Farmland.
Organic farm with solar system, own water source, fertile land, a greenhouse, close to a river/see/lake, plenty of fishing, gorgeous weather, own vineyard, 24 degrees in march. Available in Spain, Italy, France, Eastern Europe after the virus. Maybe some places Florida and Texas/with some compromises.”

I will personally buy you your plane ticket Stanley so you can get your broke ass out of Canada. Must hurt being a boomer and not having two cents to rub together huh Stanley? Don’t worry, Europe is accepting refugees. I’m sure they can take one more in with you.

#90 akashic record on 04.19.20 at 3:26 pm

#30 akashic record

Remember what? – Garth

The content you censored – assuming you listened to it.

Yup. Delete-worthy. Take your tinfoil elsewhere. – Garth

Let’s revisit in a year or two to see who was wearing the tinfoil hat and who had the yester’s.

#91 dealone on 04.19.20 at 3:26 pm

RE: #9 George and preferred shares

What has happened to them? Genuinely interested – buying opportunities?

#92 Penny Henny on 04.19.20 at 3:30 pm

#36 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 1:28 pm

Selling your unwanted things and turning the cash around on things I want (also bought on Kijiji) has left my chequing account unscathed almost every time.

I already have a list of stuff that has to go this year which should bring 3.5-4K. Plans are in place on how to spend that cash too :D
///////////

How much junk do you have?

#93 Joseph R. on 04.19.20 at 3:32 pm

#55 TalkingPie on 04.19.20 at 2:08 pm

This couple, former clients of Garth’s, was featured – and even did a Q&A – on here: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/05/20/chutzpah-2/

From the sounds of it, despite all the naysayers, they’re doing just fine.
https://www.millennial-revolution.com/

The name of their website is stupid, but their story and their free self-investing workshop are not.

***********************************

Thanks TalkingPie!

#94 Gino on 04.19.20 at 3:36 pm

Oh wow so the thousands of buildings in Toronto and GTA will become ghost buildings? Will toronto and the GTA the economic engine of Canada then collapse if no one is living or working there? Will prices in Barrie Milton and King come down to support the move to burbs? A detached costs $600,000 plus. And if everyone moves there won’t prices go higher due to demand? Does this mean no one will want to go to coed gyms? Medical buildings? Garth whats the ripple effect of hundreds of thousands of building becoming vacant and everyone leaving toronto? You can’t make a prediction then leave us hanging!

#95 Mike on 04.19.20 at 3:36 pm

#73 PSL on 04.19.20 at 2:50 pm
……………………………..
This is a slow motion disaster that will take months if not longer to play out.
………………
So don’t invest. Let’s compare portfolios in two years. – Garth
…………………………
I don’t think that PSL is saying do not ever invest, he/she is just cautioning everyone from jumping in now, which makes totatl sense.
I do agree that this will very likely be a dead cat bounce and new lows will happen. Might be weeks or month but it is likely to happen.
Instead of staying always invested it’s OK to hide in bond, USD, maybe gold to a smaller degree for now.
Have a shopping list and have pre-set levels where you want to buy.
I’d say some around SP500 at 1900ish, more at 1500 and lots at 1000 if we get there.
Not the end of the world, there will be bright days ahead. But lots of people will get slaughtered if they stya invested now, they will NOT be able to hold when/if we get to SP500 1000 (maybe lower?)
Heck they will likely sell all out even if we just get to 1500.

Market-timers never get it right. Stay invested. – Garth

#96 JohnAB on 04.19.20 at 3:37 pm

Remember this:
Nothing, absolutely nothing will crush the prices of the semi and detached homes in GTA. The sellers will keep their homes until they can sell for the price they want and the buyers will be having moist dreams until they can overstrech themselves to buy a house. Every single RE owner knows that if the market goes down, it’s temporary and it will eventually go up again. And with the stimulus + immigration we have how, good luck on hoping buying the house you want for 20-30% less. I predict that the houses under 1 mil will have no more than 3-5% price decrease this year, and a huuuuge price increase next year and the years after.
Yes, there will be less movement on the market, and some realtors will have to find a real job, but for the ones on the sidelines waiting for seller begging you to buy their homes, ain’t gonna happen. You (and me too) should have bought when you had the chance.

#97 Penny Henny on 04.19.20 at 3:38 pm

#29 Sold Out on 04.19.20 at 1:10 pm
#8 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 12:22 pm
Anyone care to revise their comments from last week? Trolls.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/19/there-are-no-missing-ventilators-elon-tesla-kept-their-promise/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwivn6vX8vToAhVBMH0KHcK0DwgQFjAAegQIAxAC&usg=AOvVaw1ycb54uIYPGPMxgQ578e2A&ampcf=1

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Not in the slightest. Musk sent Bi-PAP and CPAP machines, not ventilators. Some moderately ill patients can have their airways gently assisted by them, but not the critically ill. Neither of these devices is a “ventilator”; rather they are designed to keep one’s airway open, not to deliver O2 to the lungs.
/////////////////

Hey Sold Out and you too Noname.

Sail Away doesn’t say bad things about your God so why are you saying bad things about his?

#98 Last Gasp on 04.19.20 at 3:42 pm

Farming is a 1 per cent net profit low margin business that requires fecund soil, exceptional skills, good weather, sweat and Farm Credit Corp funding as no commercial bank wants you as a customer. Naieve people thinking they will go back to the land without these skills and still meet their annual tax bill let alone mortgage payments are delusional. Then paying an extra hundred to two hundred grand for the added semi rural lot for a “sustainable” victory garden” that yields 800 bucks a year in raw produce that will waste 70 % of cent f garden yield because they lack pest management, preserving, canning or food safe skills just to run away from the current pestilence du jour is just another fad. The same properties will be in the remainder bin , 3 years later after divorce followed by bankruptcy. Saw this trend in the Okanagan orchards with first English families selling to the Germans who sold to the Portiguese who sold to the East Indians who are now aging and selling to the Mexican imported labor. In each case from 1910 to 2020 the successive parents tried to pass the farm on to their kids who bounced, and sold it to the next wave of smart farm workers who were willing to take on 20 years of sweat equit
y for a down payment and hope thier kids would take it over one day. The only ones who did not fit this profile were the Quebec pickers who always went back home to live of winter dole and come back in
spring until too old or established in Quebec to return.

You can put good money on the reality that most people will make the wrong decision at the right time with predictable frequency.

#99 Figure it Out on 04.19.20 at 3:44 pm

Manson Family murders never happened PUBLISH
My coffee maker is spying on me PUBLISH
Man never walked on the moon PUBLISH
Secret Walmart martial law plan PUBLISH
Chemtrails chemtrails chemtrails PUBLISH
Political leaders have secretly been replaced by actors PUBLISH
5G cell towers cause… PUBLISH
????? DELETE too tinfoil

Hell’s Bells, Garth, stop deleting stuff crazier than what you publish — It’s probably eligible for a Hugo Award!

#100 Ustabe on 04.19.20 at 3:45 pm

I think Mr Ustabe is quite skilled with a BBQ, maybe he would offer to feed us,

While I am reasonably skilled on a gas grill, my true passion is a smoker. I have three….down from five. LOL, downsizing in my old age.

My 12V portable pellet smoker traveled with us as we toured the Atlantic provinces three years ago…introduced many a PEI camper to the wonders of pulled pork tacos.

~~~~~~~
In my hood we have doctor owned medical clinics advertising for new patients, dental ones too. Also my property taxes are under $3,000 for the year. To the door mail, water both in and out, garbage, recycling including food and yard waste all included. My town has millions of dollars in the emergency fund as well. We all seem to get along with one another as well…odd exception sure but generally speaking it is a real community.

I, like Garth, could live anywhere I chose. Like Garth, where I live did not just happen, it was researched, planned and put into effect. Made the correct choice more than 20 years ago. As did Garth, wonderful spot, although his community camp grounds need a lot of work.

However I am perfectly content to let Dr’s Tam and Henry guide us out of this pandemic. Those of you who want to open it up and let it roar will soon enough see the results of opening it up by watching the various US states that are ignoring scientific, medical advice.

If you are correct, great. If the medical establishment is correct, good for us too. We will see.

Bear in mind that if you open it up its a possible death warrant for me you are aligned with. Over 70, probably diminished lung function from the excesses of youth and so on.

But, ya, even tho some of you want me to die, I’d cook for you. Smoked ribs, pulled pork and even a 18 hour brisket if you want.

#101 Ronaldo on 04.19.20 at 3:49 pm

Time will tell. But a cabin with three laying chickens and a creek suddenly beckons.
——————————————————————-
We saw the same thing happening in the 70s and 80s. They were called “The new rustics”. 5 acre lots became very popular and all the talk was moving into the country and being self sufficient. How times never change. They simply repeat.

#102 Dolce Vita on 04.19.20 at 3:51 pm

This 94% of Cdns in C19 Panic Porn is clearly going to wreck the economy as today we read it’s impact on RE will be immense not to mention the Fed budget deficit.

To an extent I blame the COVID Clown Car that is the Cdn MSM for the Panic Porn and scaring Cdns s***less.

For example my prior Comment how Cdn MSM are too thick to understand the concept of Ro as a reliable measure of when to open an economy.

Here is another instance of “thickness”, in this case Lisa LaFlamme or whatever her name is and the segment “Inside a Toronto ICU”, start watching at the 2 min mark (Lisa very pleased with this segment):

https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1942077&jwsource=twi

where poor frontline workers complaining they worry about being coughed on by patients and getting infected themselves.

So CTV, are you the same people that ran the video from Bergamo and tsk, tsk’ing them?

Did you forget to notice how Bergamo handled the same problem, weeks ago, image from that video (they used UK Channel 4’s vid in their broadcast):

https://i.imgur.com/IJE7SZr.png

Ya, those are moveable ventilators and bubble helmets to prevent what the poor Toronto ICU workers said they were afraid of.

Then again what’s wrong with me, Gov Canada Mar. 5:

https://i.imgur.com/2czbpgB.jpg

And the Cdn MSM at that press conference…All Hail The Emperor with No Clothes on and DON’T ask any questions that matter, ’cause $600 MM is riding on that.

You have failed Cdns, Cdn MSM. You’re hopeless.

#103 Not So New guy on 04.19.20 at 3:53 pm

#12 Dave on 04.19.20 at 12:39 pm

Will Trump hit China with serious consequences for not acting sooner?

====================================

I’d lay money on it but what we have seen in the past is that Trump prefers his revenge served cold.

That is now a chip in his hand and he will play it at the most opportune time and to his greatest advantage

#104 Stan Brooks on 04.19.20 at 3:53 pm

#95 JohnAB on 04.19.20 at 3:37 pm

Of course. When all you know is houses this is what happens. No economy but prices will go up. Sure. Unemployment in GTA will be higher, much higher than it used to be in Detroit and Chicago for a veeery long time in the next quite a while.

So who is buying those houses again? Unemployed people on government handouts?

People should have cashed their lottery tickets. Now it is gone, forever. Jump of 10-15 years into the jobless stagnation government handouts dependent future.

I was planning for it in 10-15 years time counting on gradual arrival but snap, a month or two and it is already here. Irreversably.

No amount of CPR will resurrect this dead horse/Canadian real estate. And to you and all other hungry real estate agents out there: The good old times are not coming back. Quit those drugs and your delusions.

Cheers,

#105 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 3:56 pm

#92 Penny Henny on 04.19.20 at 3:30 pm
#36 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 1:28 pm

Selling your unwanted things and turning the cash around on things I want (also bought on Kijiji) has left my chequing account unscathed almost every time.

I already have a list of stuff that has to go this year which should bring 3.5-4K. Plans are in place on how to spend that cash too :D
///////////

How much junk do you have?
—-

Had lots, but running down now. I had so many mustang parts at one time, quite a few big ticket items too. I had 7 tractors at one point, it’s all pretty much gone.

Once the junk is gone, I am going to do the buy cheap, fix, and sell thing.

#106 Not So New guy on 04.19.20 at 3:59 pm

I think a wise job seeker would be looking for a job NOW. Since most of your competition would rather sit at home and feed off Trudeau bucks, there should be quite a few employers looking for people who are willing to do what so few others are willing to do.

As this drags on and the economy slowly starts to reopen, the opportunities should blossom. Getting ahead of all those clowns who are going to hold out for every last dollar while mewling for more should put you in great standing before your new employer. If it’s a union position you also have seniority going for you.

As a guy once said:

You beat 50% of the people by doing what’s right,
The next 40% by working hard,
The next 10% is a dogfight

#107 Penny Henny on 04.19.20 at 4:02 pm

#76 Flail Away on 04.19.20 at 3:02 pm
I see your silly defense of Elon’s most recent nonsense from a Tesla FanBoy Site with the always acerbic New York Post which calls Elon a “Covidiot” – hahah, love it. (link below)

Elon Musk is tech Covidiot No. 1 during coronavirus pandemic

https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/elon-musk-is-tech-covidiot-no-1-during-coronavirus-pandemic/

Hey Elon, first rule of business, under promise, over deliver not the opposite.
///////////

With cults it’s over promise and under deliver

#108 Mr. Market? on 04.19.20 at 4:05 pm

Of course there is no depression, nor will there be one. The economy was tuned off. It will be turned on. This was not a structural event. Yes, fiscal and monetary policy are stimulating markets and that will continue until corporate profits restore. But stay in cash and enjoy the 0.05% returns. – Garth

————————————

Got back into all equities over 3 weeks ago while strapping myself in for what should be a prolonged, bumpy and long grind back up hopefully being in a much better place 2 or 3 years from then, not 3 weeks. Getting back out, sorry.

No depression or at the very least a profoundly deep recession by shutting down all economies in the world with hundreds of millions of sudden job losses across the globe, many of them permanently? With commodities in the ditch with no end in sight regardless of supply manipulation? Something that has never been done or happened before? What are we expecting, the roaring 20’s in 6 months?

We actually have in hand, and are only beginning to receive, nightmarish and very early economic data, and no the market has not priced any of that in, not in any meaningful way as of Friday’s close. The markets are shooting in the dark and rejoicing in free and unprecedented helicopter money without the 1st clue of how this will all play out, cognitively dissident of what is right in front of them.

I never expected to and nor did I truly earn a 30% gain in 3 weeks, but none of this is rational and illogical rallies in past crises have proven time and time again that they cannot be sustained. Or is it different this time?

If you are suggesting real estate will suffer significantly due to this crisis, then stocks and bonds will also, possibly more with interest rates stuck at zero. Oh and good luck seeing them go up ever again…and going from zero to 1% in 10 years doesn’t mean a thing.

You invested for three whole weeks? Time to stop giving people advice here. – Garth

#109 Dolce Vita on 04.19.20 at 4:06 pm

Some of you are thinking aren’t you the guy that said not to bash Gov and show some gratitude for all the cash being shoved to Cdns?

Ya, that’s me.

But, since I’m a non-resident I get $0, so I can bitch.

Come to think of it, maybe I should Tweet Justin and see if they have any cash to spare for Canadians like me that went turncoat to Italia, the “Turncoat Italia CERB Restitution Fund”.

—————————————–

Some, sort of good news?

Background: Italians are a beach culture in Summer, where you will find them (escape tourist hordes in our cities, well not this year, Thank God…no more Nordics, Austrians and Germans on our beaches that think it is their God Given Right to nude sunbathe and scare all our Italian Grandmas).

So you know things are getting better here when Italians wondering how are they going to make all this social distancing mask etc. thing work on the beach? Here are some poor souls doing precisely that, the poor things look lost:

https://rep.repubblica.it/pwa/generale/2020/04/17/news/coronavirus_guida_4_maggio-254324999/

If masks mandatory on the beach, well Italians will end up with a reverse tan to the guy on the right in this image:

https://i.imgur.com/YT9FtMa.jpg

Best I could come up with on a more cheery note with all the doom and gloom coming out of Canada nowadays.

—————————————–

Thank God we have Garth to steer us thru it all.

#110 YouKnowWho on 04.19.20 at 4:07 pm

#4 Paul on 04.19.20 at 12:09 pm
With all this unemployment, if RE doesn’t eventually collapse then I don’t know what it will take for this to happen.

——-

Logic says this should happen. Therefore expect government manipulation to prevent it, as has been the case all this time.

Why? It shows economic activity, drives profits for banks who pay off politicians and of course the revenue from property taxes is the shizznit.

Evidence/link banks are ‘paying off politicians’? Or did you just make that up? – Garth

#111 Loonie Doctor on 04.19.20 at 4:17 pm

We took to the more rural life years ago. We live in the country on acreage, but short drive or bike ride via a trail system to the downtown of a major city. Geothermal heating/cooling. Solar panels (MicroFIT) that more than pay for our hydro/gas bill. Garden, fruit trees, maple syrup. Giant storage building for our tractors and toilette paper. Plenty of squirrels and the dogs can hunt in the security of their 20 acre invisible fence. Our neighbors all patrol the area with guns on golf carts. A prepper’s paradise really. I always felt the eccentric nature of our place may make it a difficult sell someday – maybe not. Best luxury self-quarantine facility around.
-LD

#112 Flop... on 04.19.20 at 4:18 pm

Penny Henny.
#36 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 1:28 pm

Selling your unwanted things and turning the cash around on things I want (also bought on Kijiji) has left my chequing account unscathed almost every time.

I already have a list of stuff that has to go this year which should bring 3.5-4K. Plans are in place on how to spend that cash too :D
///////////

How much junk do you have?

//////////////////

Call me old school.

I never inquire about another mans junk…

M45BC

#113 Ace Goodheart on 04.19.20 at 4:21 pm

The Toronto real estate resale market has been closed by the Ontario government.

We are allowed to sell houses in “emergency” type situations. Other than that, no new listings.

Interestingly enough, more and more “emergency situations” are popping up. You can’t actually get into a house right now, but you can do an “open house” by way of video.

There is an industry building up of people who can “trouble chase” houses by virtual showing, picking out problems with wiring, plumbing, potential insulation issues, water leaks, whether or not a house has ever been insulated. All the good stuff you used to be able to use on a walk through to bargain for a lower price (or at least scare away the competition during an open house) all has to be viewed virtually now.

I used to count the vents. I estimate about 90% of the houses I have viewed in Toronto over the years, have HVAC systems that were designed by someone going to a Home Depot, buying a bunch of duct work and banging it into place over the weekend.

HVAC is something an engineer does, with blue prints and calculations. Otherwise, the main floor of your house is an oven in the winter, while the upstairs bedrooms freeze. During the summer, the third floor gets about as much A/C as a Bangkok slum.

HVAC problems are notoriously hard to fix. If you don’t see each and every duct located underneath a window, chances are the house is not to code, and never was.

There are no listings in Toronto right now because it is pretty much illegal to list.

For those of us waiting for all the power of sales that should materialise in November/December (especially if a second wave of the virus hits late November, as we all expect it will), that is OK for us.

I don’t mind buying distressed properties by way of video showing.

Though I would never touch a condo with a barge pole.

#114 not 1st on 04.19.20 at 4:22 pm

What does downtown living in a box provide that living on the outskirts or even close rural doesn’t? I mean skip the dishes is pretty much ready to deliver anywhere, amazon too and I can watch the Raptors on 8K HD without having to carry vaccine papers. If my rights have to be infringed for those apparent attractions, then count me out.

Garth, you missed a little something from your poll the other day. We were supposed to shutdown to flatten the curve. The curve is flattened now and no hospital is in danger of being over run. But the loony left has moved the goal posts again. Now the economy cant restart until news cases are zero or we have a vaccine and now you see them calling for shutdown for another 6 weeks or more.

If that happens, the rebound is going to be much more muted because that will cause a bankruptcy and default wave through the economy. A health crisis has morphed into a financial crisis into a political battle with the SJW crowd, again.

When will our PM get done his super Mario game?

#115 Phylis on 04.19.20 at 4:27 pm

I wonder how many people are spending their downpayment savings and will figure they will build up a bigger buffer. I see delayed purchases.

#116 Ambi and Vasu on 04.19.20 at 4:29 pm

#13 Vanrenter on 04.19.20 at 12:45 pm

On your “to do list” please add one more item

“Teach your kids to keep the accounts (every penny spent) of the new business from day “zero” on a daily basis. Managing money is the most critical part in a successful business”.

For example, you have already started brain storming on your business… Keep a log of the hours burnt…. Every hour burnt is “dollar spent”. This should be done by the end of the day, every day, before going to bed……

Typically, every business owner starting a new business considers this as the last of their priorities

#117 Not So New guy on 04.19.20 at 4:33 pm

#72 Smart Millenials on 04.19.20 at 2:47 pm

Millennials are smarter than the Boomers. Too many boomers screwed up their life in marriage and divorce mess. Boomers wasted millions of dollars in marriage and kids. Millenials are living different. Most millennials are forgoing marriage and family. The goals have changed. Now people want to retire early and have a lot of different experiences including travel. Condo living will not go away. There are benefits to living in the city which suburbs cannot offer.

=============================

best laid plans….

#118 baloney Sandwitch on 04.19.20 at 4:37 pm

Your stuff about houses has me a bit scared. I am heavily into banks and their dividends. With mortgages defaulting should I be selling?

What defaults? – Garth

#119 JohnAB on 04.19.20 at 4:48 pm

#102 Stan Brooks on 04.19.20 at 3:53 pm

The people who will be able to keep paying mortgages will keep their houses. And I am almost sure that the ones who won’t be able to pay for their mortgages will be bailed out. No governmnet will allow such a big sector of the economy (15%) to crash, since that would mean the end of their political party. We’ll get our savings diluted first (with the huge injections of money and later real inflation of prices), then we’ll see more credit available, and maybe even 40-50 year mortgages with a reate under so called “official rate of inflation”. Got to keep the show going on!

#120 Work and Tumble on 04.19.20 at 4:49 pm

Hi Garth,
Vacationed in Halifax stayed at the Prince George last summer for Canada Day weekend, rented a car traveled around the province we really enjoyed Nova Scotia. Had a day in Lunenburg, even had my photo taken in front of you shop, live in southern Ontario and are thinking of going back for a week or two again later this summer if all is well? Would love to hear the story about what made you make the move? We are not enjoying Ontario like we did years ago and have been talking about an adventure.

I shall address this soon. Next time come in! – Garth

#121 Flop... on 04.19.20 at 4:53 pm

Someone mentioned Lake Huron area.

I remember the first couple years I was on here, a guy that went by Ontario’s Left Coast used to help me out.

From memory I think he lived in Goderich.

Wonder what he’s up to now.

Hey OLC, if you are still lurking, give us a shout and tell us what your life is looking like nowadays.

Common Sense, you might as well too.

I trust Cramer in Leamington is doing fine.

I remember a gentler time on this blog, when we used to give notice we were going on holiday, because we didn’t want anyone to worry about us for a while…

M45BC

#122 Linda on 04.19.20 at 4:58 pm

If the people who have been applying for mortgage deferrals etc. are also the people who were living payday to payday, it seems logical that many of them will end up having to sell their properties/declare bankruptcy. It depends on length of crisis, when or even if they resume paid employment & just how demanding the creditors will be. Going to be one heck of a post Covid hangover.

#123 Phylis on 04.19.20 at 5:04 pm

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.19.20 at 2:44 pm There are many base teachers at the top of the grid (at least here) that are at the 97k mark. The ones that go over are the ones that do extra credit. Wait a little bit for the commoners after the next contract to push the sunshine list to the moon!

#124 Work and Tumble on 04.19.20 at 5:05 pm

Reply#119.

I would have, but the day we were in town was a Sunday.

#125 Yukon Elvis on 04.19.20 at 5:06 pm

#117 baloney Sandwitch on 04.19.20 at 4:37 pm
Your stuff about houses has me a bit scared. I am heavily into banks and their dividends. With mortgages defaulting should I be selling?
……………………..

The banks and dividends are safe. The head banksters have been on the media saying they would not cut dividends. Further: bank stocks/dividends are heavily held by pension plans, etfs, mutual funds etc. Imagine the chaos if the banks were to cut and the divs and the etfs and mutual funds and pension plans dumped the stocks. Everything would blow up. So the government will step in and protect the banks, no worries there. And they also don’t want to have CMHC cover any huge losses. So: your dividends are safe and the bank stocks will recover. Imho. Don’t lose any sleep over it.

BTW, Dallas-based Neiman Marcus is about to go bankrupt this week, with $4.8 billion in debts. A chunk of that is owed to the CPP. Yeah, that CPP. – Garth

#126 cristian on 04.19.20 at 5:08 pm

#44
Hi Garth. Off Topic.
Watched a Netflix good feel movie called The Healer. Corney a bit, but it was set in Lunenburg NS. I tried to get a glimpse of the BMO building without but could not spot it. You probably already know about it but thought I would mention it. Nice little town you have there :)

It’s on my agenda to explain why I chose this place. It did not just happen. – Garth

*************************
Lunenburg
Old Town Lunenburg is one of only two urban communities in North America designated as a UNESCO World Heritage site. Seventy percent of the original colonial buildings from the 18th and 19th centuries continue to greet visitors with their colourful façades.

Wander Old Town Lunenburg’s distinctive waterfront with its colourful buildings and listen for salty tales of seafaring and rum-running and discover a charming town filled with amazing restaurants, distilleries, breweries, artisans and unique shops. You can even book a walking tour with Lunenburg Walking Tours where your guide will wow you with the equally colourful history of the town.

#127 oh bouy on 04.19.20 at 5:08 pm

@#83 Manitoulin Martin on 04.19.20 at 3:18 pm
“Time will tell. But a cabin with three laying chickens and a creek suddenly beckons.”

How about 200 acres of gently rolling hills and a hardwood forest in the world’s largest fresh water island, the gem of the Great Lakes, Manitoulin Island. To boot, the greatest sunsets on the planet, star filled night views that are unmatched and surrounded by beautiful Lake Huron. This is what the locals, known as Haweaters call paradise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manitoulin_Island

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haweater
____________________

enjoyed a dozen or so summers in gore bay but you’re really fluffing this place up a bit.

#128 Handsome Ned on 04.19.20 at 5:09 pm

“cabin with 3 laying chickens and a creek suddenly beckons.”

How many long term urbanites are capable of killing a chicken, let alone blowing the heads off of cute foxes, coyotes, badgers, hawks, etc. that are eying their flock. In parts of bc you could be dealing with 700 lb grizzlies. I know a guy in Bella Coola who had to plug one that was killing his horses. Even though I have the means to kill a moose I prefer to buy my meat packed in Styrofoam. My 65 year old back will not handle packing out moose quarters.

Why would you kill a laying hen? – Garth

#129 oh bouy on 04.19.20 at 5:12 pm

@#72 Smart Millenials on 04.19.20 at 2:47 pm
Millennials are smarter than the Boomers. Too many boomers screwed up their life in marriage and divorce mess. Boomers wasted millions of dollars in marriage and kids. Millenials are living different. Most millennials are forgoing marriage and family. The goals have changed. Now people want to retire early and have a lot of different experiences including travel. Condo living will not go away. There are benefits to living in the city which suburbs cannot offer.
___________________________________

no companionship, children?
that’s a grim choice bruh.

#130 Keith in Rio on 04.19.20 at 5:12 pm

That must explain the 30% commercial vacancy rate in Calgary. – Garth

————————————–

It’s actually a 40% net vacancy rate for DT commercial RE as empty properties that are still having the leases paid, are not counted in the totals. That stats from a long time friend who works directly in the bizz here in YYC.

You only live in the suburbs once in your life.

The inner city or right DT is where it’s at.

#131 Manitoulin Martin on 04.19.20 at 5:17 pm

#122 oh bouy on 04.19.20 at 5:08 pm

“enjoyed a dozen or so summers in gore bay but you’re really fluffing this place up a bit.”

I fell in love with it the first time I set foot on the island and the magic never leaves me. That’s why I own my 200 acre summer and weekend retreat there. I fly from Toronto to Gore Bay to get there. Check out these amazing photos of the world’s largest freshwater island.

https://www.google.com/search?q=manitoulin+island&rlz=1C1CHBF_enCA865CA865&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiz3-els_XoAhUDGs0KHS74AfcQ_AUoAnoECBwQBA&biw=929&bih=932#imgrc=URBpBisAv-yt-M

#132 willworkforpickles on 04.19.20 at 5:18 pm

Bunch of smooth talk loving know nothings.

#133 Manitoulin Martin on 04.19.20 at 5:21 pm

#120 Flop… on 04.19.20 at 4:53 pm

“Someone mentioned Lake Huron area.”

That would be me Flop. Manitoulin Island, the world’s largest freshwater island in Lake Huron. The gem of the Great Lakes.

#134 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 5:24 pm

#68 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 2:40 pm
#62 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 2:21 pm
#36 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 1:28 pm

IH, just wondering for the bbq: where exactly do you keep that envelope of cash?

——————-

I put it on the cement floor of my drive shed, then drive the TD9’s left track over top of it.

It’s safe as long as no one comes along that knows how to start a 50’s vintage gas-diesel crawler.

I may break some of that envelope cash out for you however, if you show up at the bbq with some fresh smoked Alaskan Steelhead :D

——————-

Haha. That sounds like a safe place. Probably not great for storing jewelry, though.

Oh, I’ll be bringing smoked salmon for appies and fresh for the bbq. Might bring a few squirrels for those who want to practice apocalypse eating.

#135 Thanx for the chuckle ... on 04.19.20 at 5:26 pm

#72 Smart Millenials on 04.19.20 at 2:47 pm
Millennials are smarter than the Boomers.
—————————————————–
HAHAHAHAHAHA ….

#136 Reality is stark on 04.19.20 at 5:32 pm

$2.89 for a barrel of Western Canada Select and the price is falling. How can that not be good for Canada?
Taxes have to skyrocket.
If you want to pay public servants even more you have to get the money from somewhere. Am I missing something?
When you tax more the people have less money to invest. Am I missing something?
When China decimates your manufacturing base and leaves you with low paying distribution Amazon jobs how do you have more money for investing?
Are we going to try to print our way to prosperity?
Have you all lost your minds?

#137 My big sister told me on 04.19.20 at 5:59 pm

Can’t help but wonder how the challenge experienced by special care homes dealing with COVID-19 will impact older Canadiens and their decisions to list their real estate or not. Although we have been in discussions with my parents about selling their home, there is no way they will sell now.

#138 Yukon Elvis on 04.19.20 at 6:07 pm

Why would you kill a laying hen? – Garth
………………………..

The eggs hatch and u get a new hen. The hen gets old and stops laying. Chop chop. Chicken face soup with beak on.

#139 Stan Brooks on 04.19.20 at 6:09 pm

#118 JohnAB on 04.19.20 at 4:48 pm

It won’t matter.

7.5 millions, 1/3 of the workforce filed for help in the first month of the lock-down. Government is distributing taxes and printing money, this is all does. Plus subsidizing in some cases useless inefficient spending.

There is no way in hell majority of these jobless are going back to work any time soon, if ever and the ability of the jobless to support a housing market that is already 4-5 times overpriced in GTA/Vancouver is non-existent.

Yes, they will print money but demand is not generated through handouts, is is built with years with slowly blowing up the credit bubbles.

Once it is gone, it is gone, it takes many years if not decades to build again the interconnected complex network of global businesses.

What will come out of this money printing exercise will be huge inflation of necessities, like food and essential services, irreparable decline in everything else that can last a very long time.

Did you read Ryan’s advice yesterday? It was all about cutting unnecessary expenses and surviving, this is the total opposite of the credit orgy from the past where people with huge debt could borrow though HELOC against equity in their houses, buy expensive cars go on vacation, do renovations etc. It is all gone, never to return in your lifetime.

Cheers,

#140 Yukon Elvis on 04.19.20 at 6:15 pm

#124 Yukon Elvis on 04.19.20 at 5:06 pm
#117 baloney Sandwitch on 04.19.20 at 4:37 pm
Your stuff about houses has me a bit scared. I am heavily into banks and their dividends. With mortgages defaulting should I be selling?
……………………..

The banks and dividends are safe. The head banksters have been on the media saying they would not cut dividends. Further: bank stocks/dividends are heavily held by pension plans, etfs, mutual funds etc. Imagine the chaos if the banks were to cut and the divs and the etfs and mutual funds and pension plans dumped the stocks. Everything would blow up. So the government will step in and protect the banks, no worries there. And they also don’t want to have CMHC cover any huge losses. So: your dividends are safe and the bank stocks will recover. Imho. Don’t lose any sleep over it.

BTW, Dallas-based Neiman Marcus is about to go bankrupt this week, with $4.8 billion in debts. A chunk of that is owed to the CPP. Yeah, that CPP. – Garth
…………………………………

Which is why the govt. will never allow the Banks to fail. CPP also holds some if not all of the Big 5. And so do many etfs and mfs. Not to mention many corporate pension plans which rely on the divs to stay afloat.

#141 akashic record on 04.19.20 at 6:24 pm

Why would you kill a laying hen? – Garth

How long before big cities will encourage people to raise chicken?

Save the chickens! – Garth

#142 Smoking Man on 04.19.20 at 6:25 pm

Wow, 10 people killed in Nova Scotia.
Garth, any where near you?

#143 Flop... on 04.19.20 at 6:25 pm

Flop’s Coronavirus Song of the day.

The 1975

Love It If We Made It…

M45BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1Wl1B7DPegc

P.S, I view this song as a modern version of political commentary like Billy Joel’s “We didn’t start the fire”

Watch the film clip, some modern day news makers like Trump and Weinstein make special appearances.

A snippet.

Consultation
Degradation
Fossil fueling
Masturbation
Immigration
Liberal kitsch
Kneeling on a pitch.

The war has been incited and guess what?
You’re all invited
And you’re famous
Modernity has failed us.

#144 Damifino on 04.19.20 at 6:28 pm

#74 IHCTD9

Getting dirty becomes enjoyable after a while. A lot of the work invested in a pc of property, a garden, or construction/reno projects is highly gratifying…
—————————–

Absolutely! And I know you’re an extremely practical, hands-on rural dweller who’s okay with a little dirt. Maybe even a lot of dirt. Make no mistake, I respect you for that. I’m much that way myself even though I now dwell in an apartment in downtown YVR.

I have a long history of practicality. I’ve replaced my roof (took a few weeks because I was also working full time as a software engineer), once built a home in the Gulf Islands, and for years repaired my own vehicles and was (and still am) the go-to guy for repairing anything else for everyone I know.

I know tools (still have some), I’m comfortable with machinery and electrical devices and I don’t shy away from practical challenges. Two days ago I repaired the bobbin winder cam in my wife’s sewing machine. Hey, all in a day’s work.

It’s because of my background I say this: The soft-palmed desk jockey romantics heading to the back forty to establish new Walton Families are in for some big surprises.

#145 Cory on 04.19.20 at 6:29 pm

Oh Garth,

You really have a way with words. Loving the article!!!

#146 Flop... on 04.19.20 at 6:31 pm

#135 Manitoulin Martin on 04.19.20 at 5
#120 Flop… on 04.19.20 at 4:53 pm

“Someone mentioned Lake Huron area.”

That would be me Flop. Manitoulin Island, the world’s largest freshwater island in Lake Huron. The gem of the Great Lakes.

//////////////////

Yes Martin, you are correct, I was trying to be vague.

In times like these it is probably better to keep gems to ourselves for fear of being overun.

Keeps the crowds away.

I’ll show you how it’s done.

Tasmania is a shithole…

M45BC

#147 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.19.20 at 6:33 pm

Garth sez:

“It’s on my agenda to explain why I chose this place. It did not just happen. – Garth”
————————————————-
Come on Garth. We all know you are a member of the Illuminati and Lunenburg is one of the debarkation points where the Annunaki Lizard People are coming to pick you up before the Earth is bulldozed to make way for an interstellar freeway.

#148 BillyBob on 04.19.20 at 6:33 pm

#2 Flop… on 04.19.20 at 12:01 pm
“Yes, the virus has done a great job of dividing us into two groups – the creditworthy, bullet-proof elite (civil servants, teachers, first responders, essential service workers) and the tenuous riff-raff (small business owners, hairdressers, construction dudes, corporate vice-presidents, airline pilots, financial advisors, electricians)”

/////////////////////

Wow, the world is messed up!

That’s something I thought I’d never see.

I was placed in the same group as Billybob and Garth…

M45BC

==================================================

The honour is mine.

*tips hat*

#149 Ordinary Blog Dog on 04.19.20 at 6:35 pm

Years ago my wife was so enthralled with the many doors in Lunenburg, she took photos and made us a coffee table book. The bright colors, quaint surroundings and an opportunity to stroll the town – priceless. This was before the Oracle of Lunenburg moved in …..

#150 Flanneur on 04.19.20 at 6:36 pm

They allow chickens and bees in Edmonton. Grow some veggies and you’re all good.

#151 Md on 04.19.20 at 6:37 pm

None of that is gonna happen Garth. The pandemic will pass and the Toronto real estate market with chug along as usual. This market is totally detached from real world economics. There’s to much illegal money floating around that needs to be cleaned, to manyforeign buyers that are using proxies to snatch up real estate in the GTA. There may be a small hiccup from all this. But in no way is this market going down significantly. Heard this story one to many times before. Not buying it.

#152 Was his name ... on 04.19.20 at 6:39 pm

#130 Handsome Ned on 04.19.20 at 5:09 pm
I know a guy in Bella Coola who had to plug one that was killing his horses.
—————————————
Bill H. by any chance? I remember him telling me of shooting a grizz in his neighbor’s pig sty while he was looking after them as the neighbors were away on holidays. Twas at night of course and his wife held the flashlight on the beast … tough breed them Norwegians.

#153 Nonplused on 04.19.20 at 6:40 pm

“a cabin with three laying chickens and a creek suddenly beckons”

A good well or a spring is what you want. Most creeks are polluted. Good enough for the garden maybe but you don’t want to drink it without treating it first.

I looked at a property once that had a creek at the bottom of the hill in a nice rural setting quite close to the mountains. To my surprise I could find no septic tank or field. Nope, the sewer pipe ran right out the side of the hill. The foliage seemed to quite like the extra water and nutrients, but I imagine some of it was making it down to the creek. My guess is whoever built that setup figured that if bears can crap in the forest, why can’t he? Also there are creeks in Alberta that no longer have fish once they make it down to farm country. Fertilizer is my guess.

#154 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.19.20 at 6:41 pm

@#144 Smoking man

Not near Garth. Other side of the province.

I was in that community a month ago while visiting friends. I bought a painting from an art gallery right next to where it happened.
My buddy said the cops were everywhere, all night.
Might have been an ex girlfriend/new boyfriend dynamic that set off the nut job.
10 people. crazy.
Sad.

#155 Leftover on 04.19.20 at 6:42 pm

As for the decline of cities, this is according to the folks who publish all the news that’s fit to print:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/coronavirus-moving-city-future.html?algo=top_conversion&fellback=false&imp_id=344860941&imp_id=454087329&action=click&module=Most%20Popular&pgtype=Homepage

#156 islander on 04.19.20 at 6:42 pm

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/b-c/leaky-condo-crisis-rears-its-head-again-in-b-c-1.1074573

Old news, but still should be on all BC buyers’ radar. If you are a potential condo buyer, insist on having depreciation report and up to date insurance policy up front.
Beware of any condos, low rise or high rise built in the 80’s or 90’s.
Beware impoverished fellow ‘owners’ who may not be able to afford yearly maintenance and special assessments.
Better yet, buy a piece of land and pitch a tent. Less agony in the long run!

#157 MF on 04.19.20 at 6:44 pm

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.19.20 at 2:36 pm

“As a business owner and taxpayer….yeah its personal…..

I liked you better when you just felt sorry for me……

Tell you what.
When the tax revenues are down, waaaaaay down, and the govt temporary layoffs for the public sector become permanent…..I’ll feel sorry for you, ok?”

-Teachers are tax payers too.

And what was your reason for going into business? Last time I checked, businesses exist to make money.

Nothing wrong with that.

But here you are, complaining about teacher salaries.

Meaning,

If you wanted to make money, and you believe teachers make more than you as a business owner, than here you go again:

https://www.tdsb.on.ca/About-Us/Employment/Teaching/Secondary

MF

#158 Handsome Ned on 04.19.20 at 6:44 pm

“Why would you kill a laying hen.”

The answer is 3 are useless, you need to raise a flock to eat and provide eggs. You kill the old hens for soup. Even if you kept them times for eggs only; you would still have to fend off critters. I remember as a child staying at my grandparents farm, and grandpa having to get up in the middle of the night with his 22 many times. I inherited his Remington pump action model 12. Built in 1907, still a tack driver. That gun provided a lot of food for his family. Garth you would be shocked to learn that it also quickly ended the suffering of many an old farm dog. I should be so lucky.

#159 Flop... on 04.19.20 at 6:48 pm

#143 akashic record on 04.19.20 at 6:24 pm
Why would you kill a laying hen? – Garth

How long before big cities will encourage people to raise chicken?

Save the chickens! – Garth

///////////////

Might sound absurd, but I don’t know anymore.

Just when I thought things couldn’t get any kookier, there was a save the bees advertisement on the radio the other day.

With everything going on I think the bees are gonna have to fend for them selves.

Rough numbers.

1 percent of the world is trouble.

49% is scared witless.

50% is going about business as usual.

But the ad wanted us to ” grow it, not mow it”

Are they talking about body hair, or what?

Pollinators of the world unite…

M45BC

#160 Common sense on 04.19.20 at 6:50 pm

C,mon Garthy….

Flop is asking for me.

Can I come on an embarrass you how I am killing it shorting oil? I’ll bet you in writing $250,000 I will be up more than you in 2 years…or you just want to keep milking the masses on your fees…you arrogant snarky little man…

#161 other guy in Vancouver on 04.19.20 at 6:51 pm

#68 IHCTD9: “It’s safe as long as no one comes along that knows how to start a 50’s vintage gas-diesel crawler.”

I found a pdf of the operator’s manual for the International Harvester TD-9 in about 15 seconds. Always wondered what IHCTD9 meant…

#162 oh bouy on 04.19.20 at 6:51 pm

@#133 Manitoulin Martin on 04.19.20 at 5:17 pm
#122 oh bouy on 04.19.20 at 5:08 pm

“enjoyed a dozen or so summers in gore bay but you’re really fluffing this place up a bit.”

I fell in love with it the first time I set foot on the island and the magic never leaves me. That’s why I own my 200 acre summer and weekend retreat there. I fly from Toronto to Gore Bay to get there. Check out these amazing photos of the world’s largest freshwater island.

https://www.google.com/search?q=manitoulin+island&rlz=1C1CHBF_enCA865CA865&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiz3-els_XoAhUDGs0KHS74AfcQ_AUoAnoECBwQBA&biw=929&bih=932#imgrc=URBpBisAv-yt-M
______________________

fly there huh. nice.
I’m stuck on the ferry or the 7hr drive around sudbury

#163 Cal Guy on 04.19.20 at 6:52 pm

It will be hard to tell what will happen to vacation homes in the future too. It seems the wealthy in places like New York have escaped to their summer homes. In Canada, it could be a similar move. I still feel like most Canadians have been regimented into this isolation lockdown type lifestyle for almost a month. Why do the PM and Scheer get special treatment to go to vacation homes etc. Why do we still have flights coming in from all over? Look at some airport arrivals. Now our border will be closed with the US until May 30. People are going to start getting impatient and demand more freedoms and answers to all this. Look south of the border, as people protest and demand “the right to work” – geesh do you think some Canadians feel that after getting their Trudeaubucks and free rent etc etc.

Once the economy come back, how many people will want to dump the condo lifestyle for a single family home. Probably many, but most cities will be unaffordable as well as still having a large amount of unemployment. This could be our 2008 crisis as the US experienced.

#164 Ronaldo on 04.19.20 at 6:58 pm

#13 Vanrenter

“Entrepreneurship is living a few years of your life like others won’t so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can’t”
——————————————————————
Great quote. I sent this off to my sons who are both very successful entrepreneurs who have not been affected by this crisis. Fortunate to be in the right field.

#165 Paul on 04.19.20 at 7:01 pm

https://www.facebook.com/iShootCabo/videos/1707797636029528/UzpfSTY5MTM4NzU0MjoxMDE1NzIzNDE5NDQ1NzU0Mw/

#166 Ronaldo on 04.19.20 at 7:02 pm

#16 not 1st on 04.19.20 at 12:48 pm
Millennials are hilarious. First cant get into the market, now wont be able to get out.
——————————————————————
Those that didn’t have any money to begin with will simply declare bankruptcy and walk away like they did down south. No biggy.

#167 Nonplused on 04.19.20 at 7:05 pm

I don’t think we are anywhere near understanding what the full impacts of this shutdown are going to be. It really hasn’t been tried before in modern times. The main problem I see is leverage and loan availability. The central banks can only bail out so much for so long without a corresponding rise in productivity, or surely hyperinflation must result.

I think we are only starting to see the results of the shutdown on employment. Sure, the government said they were bailing out everyone, but they didn’t. Of the 4 working age adults in my family, only one was eligible for CERB and we aren’t sure about that because she normally works summers between semesters and is a student.

The same disaster is happening on the small business side. Offering relief for salaries seems like a nice political gesture but many small business also pay rent on show rooms, shops, warehouses, etc, pay utilities, have revolving loans to support inventories, etc., and etc. I don’t think round 2 of the layoffs will be as big as round 1 but it is certainly coming.

Now that grocery store clerks have learned that they are an essential service and not eligible for government assistance I bet it will be a lot harder to hire them in the future. Wages in this sector will go up and with it the cost of food.

Oil prices will be pooched for a long time. I read a report today that at least 3 million barrels a day of demand will never return as companies and vacationers shun air travel and the work-from-home trend accelerates. All the storage tanks are full and so are most of the tankers but they are just sitting at sea.

Food courts are probably permanently pooched as well. As are theaters. And maybe sporting events. It will be a least a year before people are going to feel comfortable cramming into such locations so only those with significant TV revenues can be expected to survive.

The food riots are already starting in Africa.

The food processing plants are starting to shut down in the US.

And there is lots more to come. This isn’t the end, only the beginning of the end.

It may turn out to be true what the critics said, that the actions taken to cure the patient were worse than the disease. I guess we will find out.

#168 Asterix1 on 04.19.20 at 7:10 pm

RE prices were already falling for a few years in GTA. This will make the slide even worse.

Things will get back to normal once a vaccine is shipped to all.

Will condos keep going up, no. No chance! Anyone who bought, anything in GTA in past while, are cooked!

Regarding suburbs, they blow in GTA. Too expensive to consider being viable. They are àso mostly soulless and ugly!

#169 YouKnowWho on 04.19.20 at 7:15 pm

Evidence/link banks are ‘paying off politicians’? Or did you just make that up? – Garth

—————

Garth,

Obviously I made it up.

#170 conan on 04.19.20 at 7:16 pm

One thing going for us, and that is Covid does not like soapy water. We can use innovation to kill Corona with soapy water. Waiting for the vaccine is dumb IMHO.

I know this bug is terrible, but in a way, I think we are lucky that it is not something much more lethal to us.

#171 Paul on 04.19.20 at 7:16 pm

#143 akashic record on 04.19.20 at 6:24 pm

Why would you kill a laying hen? – Garth

How long before big cities will encourage people to raise chicken?

Save the chickens! – Garth
————————————————————————————————
Whats Two or three Million chicken here or there?

https://www.wattagnet.com/articles/40045-allen-harim-reportedly-depopulating-2-million-birds?v=preview

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-poultry/indonesia-to-cull-3-million-chickens-in-a-bid-to-boost-prices-idUSKCN1TR1YO

#172 PSL on 04.19.20 at 7:18 pm

#96 Mike on 04.19.20 at 3:36 pm
_________________________________________

the markets are a game. wall street establishes rules. most people play by those rules. always stay invested for the long term. keep money in the game. generate fees. get more suckers to buy stocks. don’t worry about a 90% collapse in the Nasdaq, keep invested. don’t worry about a 50% collapse in the SP, keep invested. have professionals take their money way.

the key is to make up your own rules for the game. you decide how you are going to invest. you decide what you will buy. you decide when to be in or out. you decide the security or market. you decide your rules. don’t play their game. don’t buy stocks when the PE ratio is the second highest level in HISTORY (that was in Jan/Feb).
don’t buy bonds when they are paying nothing….

here’s a guy who gets how corrupt and unethical American capitalism actually is. watch this CNBC clip of Chamath telling the host that airlines should go bankrupt. straight up .. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISiNaGsCGtw

it’s capitalism for the small guy. they can fail and lose their jobs. but heck, we can’t let the rich fail.
this crisis is all about screwing the worker yet again, and hedge funds, CEOs, Banks, Airlines etc etc, make out like bandits.

companies borrowed money to buy back stock, raising their stock prices, and leaving the companies broke as usual. they can’t survive a 1 month shut down. now they have to go begging to the government for bailout loans.

banks make bad loans to energy companies, airlines, cruise ships, hotels.. now the government is going to spend trillions supporting all these zombie companies, instead of letting them fail.

meanwhile, Americans will get a $1200 check in the mail. and who will pay for all this debt? the poor suckers who got those $1200 checks…

it’s all a complete joke. don’t play their game. make up your own rules.

#173 YouKnowWho on 04.19.20 at 7:21 pm

#140 Yukon Elvis on 04.19.20 at 6:07 pm
Why would you kill a laying hen? – Garth
………………………..

The eggs hatch and u get a new hen. The hen gets old and stops laying. Chop chop. Chicken face soup with beak on.

………………………

So humans are Chicken’s Covid-19? :-)

#174 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.19.20 at 7:22 pm

@#157 common courtesy
“you arrogant snarky little man…”

****
Wow!
Sez the snarky troll….
( Just ask MF…., If ANYONE can spot a snarky, smelly troll its me….)

#175 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.19.20 at 7:26 pm

@#148 Flop
“Tasmania is a shithole…”

++++

I’m intrigued even more……

#176 BillyBob on 04.19.20 at 7:27 pm

#235 Doug Rowat on 04.19.20 at 10:26 am
#214 BillyBob on 04.19.20 at 6:38 am

…But ultimately it’s only a bandaid solution that may field a few temporary bucks – for most people the problem is their whole attitude to money, saving, and living within their means.

Throwing a few things on Craigslist isn’t going to change that.

Selling household items was one of 10 suggestions, which I figured most cynical commenters would key on to dismiss the entire list. You did not disappoint.

It’s also a 700-word blog post. It was only intended to make a small contribution to people’s finances. Did you expect it to solve the recession? Fix all investor misbehaviour?

You could have made a small contribution yourself. But you didn’t.

–Doug

———————————————————————————–

I did not dismiss the ideas presented. You specifically stated: “My specific purpose here is to allow you to gain a bit more control over your finances.”

And the greatest way a person can do that is to gain control of the way they think about money. Sorry if pointing out that most people’s financial problems are structural, not acute, is seen as cynicism.

———————————————————————————–

#233 MF on 04.19.20 at 10:21 am
#215 BillyBob on 04.19.20 at 6:48 am

I’m actually doing very well, thank you.

Meh I try not to get personal with people, but your persistent personal attacks are hilarious.

=================================================

Actually I attack your loser mentality in the hopes that maybe one day you’ll stop rationalizing it and instead change it. For someone doing “very well” you sure do come across as whiny and unhappy.

Which incidentally, I’m hardly the only one to comment on.

#177 Flop... on 04.19.20 at 7:31 pm

#162 Common sense on 04.19.20 at 6:50 pm
C,mon Garthy….

Flop is asking for me.

Can I come on an embarrass you how I am killing it shorting oil? I’ll bet you in writing $250,000 I will be up more than you in 2 years…or you just want to keep milking the masses on your fees…you arrogant snarky little man…

/////////////////

Well, that didn’t go as planned.

I guess that’s why they recommend you don’t do live television with kids and animals…

M45BC

#178 airbnb won't die on 04.19.20 at 7:33 pm

I have to laugh at the “airbnb” is dead thesis.

As if people will never travel again.

Airbnb and airlines will come roaring back with a vengeance in 3 to 6 months, max.

People will travel like they have been locked up for 6 months and just got out.

#179 Jeremy on 04.19.20 at 7:37 pm

I humbly disagree on this one. I’m already hearing of bully offers during the crisis. Young people still want urban living.

#180 kommykim on 04.19.20 at 7:38 pm

RE:#14 TurnerNation on 04.19.20 at 12:46 pm
Smart coffee makers have Ram and CPU capacity to rival any laptop. Why

========================================

No they don’t. Don’t be a nutter.

#181 Mississauga Mel on 04.19.20 at 7:38 pm

#165 Cal Guy on 04.19.20 at 6:52 pm

“. Why do we still have flights coming in from all over? Look at some airport arrivals.”

Not at Canada’s busiest airport Pearson. The flights are few and far between. I know because I live under some of their flight paths and it is quiet in the skies…

#182 Farmer Fred on 04.19.20 at 7:41 pm

I am going to blow IHCTD9’s cover. Here he is driving his pride and joy…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPPNPgGh8j4

#183 NoName on 04.19.20 at 7:45 pm

Yesterday or day before when tractor mentioned a chicken coup I went to utub and watch is it having chicken coup profitable, so rule of the thumb is 4-5 yrs only in tractor coup, after that chicken soup.

Here is an interesting podcast about free range organic chicken, it was all fine until bold eagle showed up.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2017/02/03/513302816/episode-752-eagles-vs-chickens

#184 Steve on 04.19.20 at 7:46 pm

Who has the greater Schadenfreude? The rich or the poor? Time will answer that. Meanwhile,, there is no reason that Covid will go away, and there is no reason for it to be all alone. It could have a friend! Called H5N1… so keep humble and remember that your life does not result from the things you possess.

#185 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 04.19.20 at 7:47 pm

#162 Common sense on 04.19.20 at 6:50 pm
C,mon Garthy….

Flop is asking for me.

“Can I come on an embarrass you how I am killing it shorting oil? I’ll bet you in writing $250,000 I will be up more than you in 2 years…or you just want to keep milking the masses on your fees…you arrogant snarky little man…”

———————————————————–
A little more respect is in order there owboy for our esteemed host, oracle of Lunenberg, lone voice of reason in the Canadian financial wilderness, former Minister of National Revenue, NYT bestselling author, denouncer of free spending politicians and money printing central banks and lastly all round jolly good fellow!

#186 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 04.19.20 at 7:59 pm

Most Canadians are full of fear at any outing where the public or other people are present. When the world is suddenly invited back into the public sphere and told a thousand times a day that “you are safe to go out and share with your fellow men” if all those timid folks will agree with the new message from media. What happens if the world decides to be frightened to death for a generation?

#187 JohnAB on 04.19.20 at 8:00 pm

#141 Stan Brooks on 04.19.20 at 6:09 pm

That’s true. Less credit will cut the prices since less will be able to buy. Still it’s strange that the prices are still holding in these times. I guess the time will show. If in the autumn the RE won’t bounce back, then I’ll be wrong. And I’m gonna be very happy if I’ll be wrong in that matter. Thanks for your replies, a pleasure to have such a discussion.

#188 Figmund Sreud on 04.19.20 at 8:01 pm

Pandemic, shmandemic, … Kenneystan is done! So sad, …

Anyway, … a question:

Why it is hard for some people to understand that if storage and pipelines are full that there will be little oil production, if any?

And if there is no production, there is no wellhead oil price….

https://mobile.twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1252012402306093056

… actually, there still is a price, as I type:

17:56 pm CST 19/04/2020 WTI Crude 16.95 -7.22%

… brutal.

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#189 Farmer Fred on 04.19.20 at 8:04 pm

146 Damifino on 04.19.20 at 6:28 pm
#74 IHCTD9

“It’s because of my background I say this: The soft-palmed desk jockey romantics heading to the back forty to establish new Walton Families are in for some big surprises.”

You go that right John Boy! Farm life isn’t easy but it has gotten easier with more and more mechanization. I remember slugging 10,000 bales in hay season in my youth and all day Saturday cleaning out manure from barns that were built in the 1800s and weren’t accessible for tractors. Tons of cow manure wheel barrowed out to the barn yard…

#190 not 1st on 04.19.20 at 8:05 pm

Why would you kill a laying hen? – Garth
—-

We should ask Trudeau that one.

#191 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 8:07 pm

All this chicken talk! Dad kept Turkeys when I was a kid. We slaughtered them by hand, boiled ‘em, plucked and cleaned them old school. Those were 20-25 lbs, they had a lot of leg power if you didn’t bonk them on the head just right. 300 lbs or so into the freezer, that’s enough bird to get sick of after a while :/.

Not sure if the $ of raising chickens works out in the end these days, when you can buy the things on sale for a couple bucks a lb. maybe free range birds would work out provided they can feed themselves?

Cheapest is probably just to go out and shoot few wild turkeys…

#192 Jed Clampett on 04.19.20 at 8:09 pm

#136 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 5:24 pm
#68 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 2:40 pm
#62 Sail Away on 04.19.20 at 2:21 pm
#36 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 1:28 pm
—————————————————————

“Oh, I’ll be bringing smoked salmon for appies and fresh for the bbq. Might bring a few squirrels for those who want to practice apocalypse eating.”
————————————————————-
Hot damn uncle Jed! Squirrels and some screech and we got ourselves a humdinger of a party!! Yeehaw!!

#193 Ronaldo on 04.19.20 at 8:12 pm

Actually, #1 is a primary care provider. Do some research on physicians-per-population/location. – Garth
————————————————————-
Now I know why you chose Nova Scotia.

#194 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 04.19.20 at 8:13 pm

#110 Dolce Vita on 04.19.20 at 4:06 pm

“Thank God we have Garth to steer us thru it all.”
—————————————————————
You got that right cowboy! He is financial prophet sent down to steer the financially illiterate masses to the promised land of no debt and healthy financial portfolios.

#195 PastThePeak on 04.19.20 at 8:15 pm

#9 George on 04.19.20 at 12:25 pm
Could be worse , ya could be holding preferred shares . What a shit show , I tried to warn everyone
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

What do you mean? I recently purchased some perpetual preferreds from A-rated blue chip CAD companies which yielded 7-8% on purchase price.

I am down a bit on the earlier lots I purchased (5-6% yields), but being perps they are solid, and I expect will recover.

If there is another leg down (which is my forecast), then I may pickup some rate resets (which were absolutely killed, and will be more) for some (longer term) upside interest rate protection, while still getting a great yield in the short term.

The key to preferreds is purchasing from top-rated companies (where default risk is low), but when the market is against that type of preferred (perpetual when rates were rising, and rate resets when falling). You hold for the yield, nliot capital gain, but purchasing below the liquidation / recall value provides insurance.

#196 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 8:17 pm

#184 Farmer Fred on 04.19.20 at 7:41 pm
I am going to blow IHCTD9’s cover. Here he is driving his pride and joy…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPPNPgGh8j4
——-

Ha! Mine is actually a loader. This is pretty much the exact machine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITSWU6toCq0

#197 Barb on 04.19.20 at 8:18 pm

“It’s on my agenda to explain why I chose this place. It did not just happen. – Garth”
————————-
Yes, ostensibly part of the strategy (ies) you were going to tell us about…

#198 PastThePeak on 04.19.20 at 8:23 pm

#38 YouKnowWho on 04.19.20 at 1:31 pm
Garth,

Nothing has changed. Nothing.
The young should not be afraid of Covid-19 at all. You know this well Garth.

If the odds on growth of market were like the odds of young person’s recovery from Covid-19, you’d get a LOC against Bandit to invest in the young in this Covid-19 situation.

The old wrinklies are afraid of Covid-19. Out of the city with them into Brantford, etc. As was always the case.

What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger.

Covid-19 is no exception.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/young-covid-positive-redditors-describe-agony-symptoms-lasting-nearly-two-months-after

#199 Figure it Out on 04.19.20 at 8:28 pm

“I am going to blow IHCTD9’s cover. Here he is driving his pride and joy…”

Thanks! After that, Youtube serves up “1949 IH TD-9 dozer starting procedure” so now I don’t have to bother reading the manual…

#200 Scott Nearing, Living the good life! on 04.19.20 at 8:37 pm

Anyone can return to a more simplistic life. The past failures of the original back to the landers was because the actually thought they could survive solely off the land.
With the ability to work from home and the assistant of modern technology it’s very doable today.

Plenty of reasonably priced rural property with in commutable distance to the GTA. It doesn’t have to all or nothing. Father of the back to the land movement Scott Nearing put the seed of discontent into the minds of a generation that returned to the cities after failure to thrive.

However, like anything in life there’s always resourceful survivors that make things work regardless of the challenges. Solar technology, better options and readily available you tube examples support options not found in the Whole Earth Catalogs. Selling city, to live rural doesn’t mean isolation, driving into any small town would be fast than most commutes to most peoples jobs. It’s time to venture north of Hwy7 it’s a big world we have as our oyster. Wood lots are very developable, if you buy the right forested area. Plus you’ve potential for acquiring a hardwood lot. With fire wood that provides two sources of heat, once when you chop it…. the other when you burn it. This is as good as any equity portfolio. Social distancing isn’t an issue when your neighbours are a quarter mile away on either side of your spread. Plenty of less traveled roads close to small cities that support similar businesses that litter Toronto and other metropolises. Diversity is the spice of life! So get one.

#201 back to the land on 04.19.20 at 8:40 pm

But a cabin with three laying chickens and a creek suddenly beckons.

_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_

I hear the call too!

#202 Farmer Fred on 04.19.20 at 9:04 pm

#193 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 8:07 pm

“All this chicken talk! Dad kept Turkeys when I was a kid. We slaughtered them by hand, boiled ‘em, plucked and cleaned them old school. ”

Ah the memories. We had a big gaggle of geese and a roster of roosters that we put in the freezer. For that matter, we had our own beef and pork. European parents. We were so self sufficient that going to the grocery store was a once a month trip. Homemade bread, butter and cheese to go with the best homemade wine you have ever had…

#203 TurnerNation on 04.19.20 at 9:07 pm

Gentlemen and oldsters, just in time for your AM brew tomorrow when you read this: the coffee maker I saw years ago did come with Intel CPU and RAM onboard.
Now all that power has been moved to cloud-based Artificial Intelligence.

https://ideaing.com/ideas/best-smart-coffee-makers/

Compatibility – Some could be connected to Bluetooth while some via WiFi. You can operate your device even from afar by just tapping your phone. Some work with voice recognition when connected with Amazon Alexa or Google. You just have to tell it your instructions, and then you have your coffee made!

— And for you techies, this is a reality . For example stuck to ones hands it would transmit every keypress you type on a keyboard.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartdust

#204 Farmer Fred on 04.19.20 at 9:23 pm

#99 Last Gasp on 04.19.20 at 3:42 pm

“Naieve people thinking they will go back to the land without these skills and still meet their annual tax bill let alone mortgage payments are delusional. Then paying an extra hundred to two hundred grand for the added semi rural lot for a “sustainable” victory garden” that yields 800 bucks a year in raw produce that will waste 70 % of cent f garden yield because they lack pest management, preserving, canning or food safe skills just to run away from the current pestilence du jour is just another fad…”
————————————————————

Spot on there with your comments. Fact of the matter is that you don’t need that much land to provide you with all the produce you could ever want. I know gardeners in the city who have vegetable gardens that produce so much they give large portions of it to neighbours because they can’t consume it all themselves.

#205 Farmer Fred on 04.19.20 at 9:33 pm

#80 Stan Brooks on 04.19.20 at 3:13 pm

“Not just dirt, productive dirt. Farmland.
Dirt in the big cities/all those small backyards is worth nothing.”
—————————————————————
You know not of what you speak. I know older immigrants in the big city who have gardens of useless dirt according to you that could feed their block with all the produce their gardens generate. Farms are worth millions in Southern Ontario. Good luck trying to buy one unless you have millions sitting around to invest.

#206 Freckles on 04.19.20 at 9:34 pm

Surprisingly, this is not the first time that this blog has wandered down the chicken path.

#207 MF on 04.19.20 at 9:39 pm

#200 PastThePeak on 04.19.20 at 8:23 pm

Yup.

There are stories all over social media of young people being knocked down by COVID for weeks and months.

Many are from New York. It seems to start as something minor like a dry cough, and then suddenly gets drastically worse with joint pain, headache, and no energy. Laboured breathing is usually what ensues for a couple days.

It’s nasty. And like many viral infections, there are many remission-recovery cycles.

These stats are not caught in the mortality statistics, as they appear as “recovered”, but that doesn’t qualify how uncomfortable symptoms are.

These are primarily young people by the way.

“My conversations have shown the young to be even more terrified of the virus that the mature. They all think if they contract it, they die. When you get your world view from Twitter, whaddya expect? – Garth”

-I find that extremely hard to believe.

MF

#208 M. on 04.19.20 at 9:40 pm

“I shall address this soon. Next time come in! – Garth”

Well are you there all summer? I really do wanna take my bike down there some summer weekend. I’m even a primary care provider, I’ll give you a free physical…

I’ll give you an office. – Garth

#209 Curious George on 04.19.20 at 9:41 pm

#172 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.18.20 at 9:14 pm

“Actually if you meticulously reread all of my 90,283 comments you will notice I loathe the deification of all public servants that receive endless accolades for…..doing… their… jobs….
Very WELL paid jobs I might add.
Not just teachers.”

Come on Fartzy, tell us how you really feel! No holding back…

#210 KAC on 04.19.20 at 9:44 pm

#180 airbnb won’t die on 04.19.20 at 7:33 pm
I have to laugh at the “airbnb” is dead thesis.

As if people will never travel again.

Airbnb and airlines will come roaring back with a vengeance in 3 to 6 months, max.

People will travel like they have been locked up for 6 months and just got out.
—————————————————————-

Many experts are suggesting that the virus will be a slowly declining seasonal threat, with us for many years as herd immunity slowly develops.

How many Airbnb operators can survive six months or more with zero income while their mortgages, taxes, maintenance costs, etc., continue?

In Vancouver we are being told that 30% of our hotels are looking at possible bankruptcy, and that’s with most having professional management, years of experience and much deeper pockets than the average Airbnb operator.

We live in interesting times.

#211 butter upon bacon on 04.19.20 at 9:51 pm

#189 JohnAB on 04.19.20 at 8:00 pm
#141 Stan Brooks on 04.19.20 at 6:09 pm

As someone who has sat on the sidelines for 6 years I agree with John. I want Stan to be right but I just don’t see it happening.

The government bailouts, strength of the banks, high immigration rates and govt backstop of the CMHC……housing can’t fall in Canada.

Long term this drags on our economy making it incredibly unproductive and look up the Canada 100million plan. New hire engineers at my plant make 50k/yr, same wage I started at 7 years ago. But to rent in a small city outside the GTA is $1500/month + utilities compared with $800 7 years ago.

I think if we are going to bring in the immigration levels that we are planning to we should at least be able to keep up with housing supply, the country is effectively empty.

#212 the Jaguar on 04.19.20 at 10:01 pm

#208 Freckles on 04.19.20 at 9:34 pm
Surprisingly, this is not the first time that this blog has wandered down the chicken path.

Chickens are interesting. Alert and inquisitive. Good photographic subjects. Engaging little creatures that bring a smile to your face. Foghorn Leghorn is an all time favourite of mine. “I mean there’s somethin’ ugggh about a kid that don’t play baseball……”.

I’m still wondering why Doug singled out Billy Bob for a rebuke given the numerous dip-shit postings that occur on the blog on a daily basis. I may even have to own that diagnosis at times. I guess if I am going to pick a side it will be Billy Bob’s. Enough said.

#213 Common Sense on 04.19.20 at 10:12 pm

#179 Flop

Doing well…Thanks to Smoking Man a few years turning me on to Forex Trading, I quit my business and now trade oil…never been better..the trend is in, add 50X leverage, and the world is your oyster with the tight stop losses to reduce risk.

I stop in here to read the comment section and read Garth’s Holier Than Thou attitude for a chuckle now and them.

After all it’s Garthy’s blog and he can be a prima donna as he wants to. Right?

Looking forward to see if I bump into him on vacation this summer. Curious if he is as arrogant in person as he is on here sometimes. What do you think? I doubt it. Likely a softie in person. I will report in, that is IF we travel this summer. NS is beautiful in the summer.

Hope all the best in B.C. Keep safe, isolated and check out oil…it will make a lot of people comfortably rich when the trend turns…far more certain that the 60/40 split god always promotes here to keep the cash flow going to his life!

#214 Trudeau on 04.19.20 at 10:17 pm

Unfortunately, Canada never had a pandemic plan. Severe shortage of PPE’s. Watched from a distance. Did’t consult with Taiwin or S Korea. No watchdogs

Canada had to shut its economy. There will be a dramatic rise in bankrupcies, mental health issues

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/canadian-police-look-for-shooter-possibly-driving-police-car

sad sad day Canada. Step down Trudeau, do the right thing. Apologize to hard-working , noe unemployed Canadians

#215 George on 04.19.20 at 10:19 pm

sad sad day

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/canadian-police-look-for-shooter-possibly-driving-police-car

Canada was not prepared for this pandemic. Had no plan. Severe shortage of PPE. Didn’t consult with Taiwin, S Korea. Had to shut the economy down.

Bankruptices , suicides , rise in mental illness, civil unrest

Trudeau, do the right thing, apologize to Canadians then step down

#216 JP on 04.19.20 at 10:22 pm

“Buy now or be priced out of the market.”
– every RE agent.

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”
– Jean Claude Junker, former EC President.

– April 2: 10% of home loans (0.5M) went into deferral (CanadaMortgageTrends).

– As of the 18th: 14% (0.67M) (Reuters).

– 25% of owners in YVR may not be able to pay their full property taxes this year. (Global News)

– China’s economy is contracting. (SCMP – Coronavirus:China’s economy unlikely to be saved by ‘revenge spending’ as worried consumers emerge from lockdown).

– Oil price collapsing.

– Vancouver reported an oversupply of condos in 2019 (9,000 units completed vs 3,000 the year before). (BCBusiness.ca “Property Watch: An oversupply of condos is not a good sign”.)

The first few grains in a potential landslide?

#217 kc on 04.19.20 at 10:22 pm

169 Nonplused on 04.19.20 at 7:05 pm

I Second what you said here. And a talking head on Van Global tonight said this “social Distancing” and shut downs “could” go on for a year…. (no wonder I stopped watching the news 2 weeks ago. Just happened to have it on tonight. A year?? good luck with that…..

170 Asterix1 on 04.19.20 at 7:10 pm

Things will get back to normal once a vaccine is shipped to all.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Glad you are willing to roll up your sleeve for the MAGIC CURE…. you can also have my share. I have a bullet for my temple before i let them shoot me with the “CURE”

#218 Flop... on 04.19.20 at 10:33 pm

#150 BillyBob on 04.19.20 at 6:33 pm

Wow, the world is messed up!

That’s something I thought I’d never see.

I was placed in the same group as Billybob and Garth…

M45BC

==================================================

The honour is mine.

*tips hat*

//////////////////

Amongst the action of the day, I missed that one.

That was kind.

Thanks…

M45BC

#219 YouKnowWho on 04.19.20 at 10:41 pm

#200 PastThePeak

——————————

Come on man, that’s anecdotal as it gets. A Reddit thread comments? Really? Must be as true as internet comment and restaurant reviews online.

In this day and age of drama/insta/re-tweet me and “me, me, me” I only trust audited information confirmed by multiple sources.

Also, I told you, the MSM has an agenda to scare the young. I highlighted it here when it started with the March Break crowds in Florida and drunk young kids on TV saying “Coronavirus won’t stop me from partying!”

There is a lot of garbage everywhere. You can’t trust anything you read.

But the fact is this. The chances of death for young is slim to none!

And guess what? The young can die from the flu, common cold complications, walking to a Staples during a wind storm and a sign comes down and chops their head off (true story).

DYI – more people have died of starvation in same period as we’ve been counting Covid-19 deaths in 2020 world wide? As I said, we have the vaccine to that disease.

#220 Figure it Out on 04.19.20 at 10:54 pm

A Country Counterpoint:

I think things are going to get back to kinda normal in 6-12 months. Norovirus didn’t kill the cruise industry. Terrorism, consolidation, higher prices and a crappier airport and in-cabin experience didn’t kill North American air travel. Spanish Flu didn’t kill the handshake.

Look at the crap (high rents/mortgages, congestion, poor transit, pricey and inconvenient parking) that people in Toronto and Vancouver (and New York and San Francisco) put up with. Look at the STAGGERING air pollution that people in major Chinese cities put up with! That’s where the GDP is generated in the (erstwhile) modern economy. The Scotia Tower’s occupants generate more GDP in a week than Lunenburg does all year.

If the media is to blame for the population’s fear, then it’ll be the media that reverses that, with advertising for tourism and entertainment, and puff pieces about how life’s getting back to normal.

I also don’t think we’re going to see any middle class tax increases. It’s the last thing a weak economy needs, and the government’s consulting economists will point to Japan.

So let’s look at where government will be cutting discretionary spending. Not health operating budgets. Probably not education. Not those cities vying for international business, headquarters, and country HQs. My guess? Rural infrastructure. You betcha. You’ve always known that paving that tertiary highway costs just as much as doing the road in the city (more, with equipment travel and manpower accommodation) with far fewer people using it. But if you all voted the right way, or lived in a swing riding, your provincial Member would come through. That ribbon cutting ceremony with three levels of government for that new hospital, arena, curling rink? Nope. Maybe you’ll get a one-time operating grant of $50,000 to patch the roof on the old one. New fire truck, new fire hall? Don’t think so. Spruced up park, rebuilt pier, beautified seawall? Not a priority. The brightest of the country folk have long known that urban GDP subsidised those rural ridings with fewer voters and longer highways. Do you really think that will continue with these budget deficits?

Just my thoughts.

P.S. I joked earlier about the land of the Subaru — an urban person’s idea of what a rural person might drive. But I’ve lived there, and I know the truth… Rusty Bronco II with a loose front end is more like it. Don’t upgrade it yet; you’ll need it for those roads. Won’t see a lot of paving crews in the summer of 2021.

#221 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 11:03 pm

#201 Figure it Out on 04.19.20 at 8:28 pm
“I am going to blow IHCTD9’s cover. Here he is driving his pride and joy…”

Thanks! After that, Youtube serves up “1949 IH TD-9 dozer starting procedure” so now I don’t have to bother reading the manual…
——-

Damn YouTube!

I checked that vid out, lucky for me and my envelope of cash, there is a glaring omission in buddy’s starting procedure. He did everything right obviously, but did not sufficiently explain everything he was actually doing when he switched from gas to diesel.

Saved!

#222 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.19.20 at 11:20 pm

Dolce,
You are repeating yourself.
Your 15 minutes of fame are over.

#223 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.19.20 at 11:29 pm

#132 Keith in Rio on 04.19.20 at 5:12 pm
That must explain the 30% commercial vacancy rate in Calgary. – Garth

————————————–

It’s actually a 40% net vacancy rate for DT commercial RE as empty properties that are still having the leases paid, are not counted in the totals.
—————–
I’m sure there are no vacancies in the favelas in Rio.

#224 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.19.20 at 11:37 pm

Luenenburg.
Sounds like a beautiful place.
How’s the Bratwurst?

#225 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 11:42 pm

#202 Scott Nearing, Living the good life! on 04.19.20 at 8:37 pm
——

Good post. I like the old saying “firewood heats you twice”!

These days the rules have changed for anyone trying get off the urban hamster wheel. Big city couples selling out of a metro can simply buy their way in with cash mortgage free, all they need from there is a minimum wage job and they’ll be fine if resourceful. Smart folks can drive the cost of living through the floor, and find ways to make cash. Single dudes/dudettes can do the tiny house thing and live for almost free.

Some of the more interesting cost saving strategies and money making I’ve seen are as follows:

Wood powered truck – no gasoline needed, drive on sweat.

TULD cooking stoves – smokeless wood cooking

Home made solar setup for the bare minimum.

Wood stove heating – no NG or LPG required

Bandsawmill – turn logs into 10-20k year, and free building materials

Selling potted flowers/plants 5-6k year

Fixing and Flipping equipment – 10-20K year

Roadside produce stand – feed your tummy and your wallet with your garden 5-6k yr.

A couple could also gross 60k with two min wage jobs, and that would be enough on its own.

Now, if you’re the kind of guy that needs to call CAA to change a tire, and your idea of fun is going to a restaurant, then you’d better stay in that condo. But if you’ve got a pair with a side order of skills, and take great satisfaction in a job done by your own hand (even if you get them dirty) – then you’ve got enough.

So many avenues are available today, and so much knowledge and resources available for free on the web. Outside of the land itself, everything you need can be had dirt cheap. There surely has never been a better time on this planet to try an off the beaten path lifestyle.

#226 stage1dave on 04.19.20 at 11:45 pm

#204 IHCTD9 on 18.04.20

Wow, a 7 string…man, I’m still tryin’ to cope with 6! I’ve never got up enuff nerve to try and “restify” one of my axes either, too worried I’d screw it up. Most of my stuff is Epiphone and 80s Aria Pro anymore, bailed on the Gibsons years ago…too much money for the amount it got used. Good luck on hotrodding that Schecter, btw; I haven’t kept up with 7 string stuff at all.

Fox body-wise, now on my 7th Capri between 5.0/t5’s and a couple turbo cars. After almost 12 years of ownership, I’ve put almost 100km on it…I’m a long time Mopar/Buick guy, so getting into these things in the 90s was kind of a breath of fresh air; cheap thrills (well, they used to be) that are well built, easy to work on, and PDQ!

Haven’t owned a Mustang yet, but the wife had an 85 GT for several years and loved it…and she is not liking this bubble-back window one bit!

#227 Drunken Stupor on 04.20.20 at 12:36 am

Tired of this Covid madness. Can someone in mainstream media pls put things in perspective? Over 2.8mln people die in USA every year. That is over 7.5k a day, over 300 per hour, more than 5 per minute… Curves are way flatter than they told us (and the models supposedly included strict quarantine) … so why are we still in lockdown?

#228 SoggyShorts on 04.20.20 at 12:57 am

#94 Joseph R. on 04.19.20 at 3:32 pm
#55 TalkingPie on 04.19.20 at 2:08 pm

This couple, former clients of Garth’s, was featured – and even did a Q&A – on here: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/05/20/chutzpah-2/

From the sounds of it, despite all the naysayers, they’re doing just fine.
https://www.millennial-revolution.com/
The name of their website is stupid, but their story and their free self-investing workshop are not.
***********************************
Thanks TalkingPie!

****************
PLEASE keep in mind that this FIRE couple, MMM, and any other bloggers you read up on make more money off books and blogs than they did while working. Of course they’re doing fine, ALL multimillionaires are doing fine.

MMM for example was the most frugal and iirc “retired” on a about 600k.
In 2016 he was worth around 4m and making 400,000/y on his blog

https://personalfinancenews.com/mr-money-mustache-earns-400000-a-year-on-his-blog/

#229 BigAL on 04.20.20 at 7:29 am

I still can’t believe you’re going on about condos. Listen- condos aren’t going anywhere, anytime soon. They are the current, near, and distant future. What’s the most coveted address in NYC? Not some home in the burbs with a lawn to mow on weekends. It’s Park Ave., or anything else overlooking Central Park. It’s all condos. Get over it already. Even amidst all this ‘doomsday’ fear, the prices of real estate in the major cities of Canada have barely budged. When this is all behind us people will be socializing more than ever. People will realize how important human interaction is to quality of life. Patios will be standing room only. Bars and clubs will be jammed with sweaty bodies on the dance floor. Dating apps will see a surge in activity as people get back to dating since everyone will be bored-to-death of masturbation by that point. Stop thinking like an old man and put yourself in the minds of those 20-50 years of age instead. You’ll find its a much different world than the one you are suggesting.

#230 O caNnABis! on 04.20.20 at 7:43 am

Heeeeeeeeeeeyyyy EveRBudDy!!

HAPpyy 420 to YeWALlLLLL!!

ChiLLaXxxxxxxxxxxinnnnnnnnnnnn……..

#231 Wrk.dover on 04.20.20 at 7:47 am

#202 Scott Nearing, Living the good life!

The book has a horrible ending when they move to a terrible piece of land.

The rest of the book is helpful.

#232 Wrk.dover on 04.20.20 at 7:50 am

#225 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 11:42 pm

So do it already! It’s the theme you always pump here.

#233 PSL on 04.20.20 at 7:52 am

front month Crude oil price… $11.70
that’s not going to have any adverse effects at all….

#234 BrianT on 04.20.20 at 7:57 am

#139MyBig-you make a good point-if you are afraid of this or any virus in the future the last place you want to be is in a retirement home-those forced in will still go but you would expect everybody else to say no thanks.

#235 Wrk.dover on 04.20.20 at 8:02 am

#226 stage1dave on 04.19.20 at 11:45 pm

https://www.long-mcquade.com/9862/Guitars/Parts/EMG/David_Gilmour_Strat_Set_with_Pickguard.htm

Car builder too. Might put this on my 5 string Tele.
I delete the fat E string on all guitars.

#236 Pgljoy on 04.20.20 at 8:12 am

Have to laugh at all these people with electronic coffee makers. What do you do when your power goes out ,lick your Kcups. We live in small town where power can go out for a time.You quickly learn how to boil water and press your coffee or at least percolate it. On a gas stove ,BBQ or in the fire pit.Plus you can piss people off by saying you are saving the environment but not using Kcups.

#237 So much for logic on 04.20.20 at 8:35 am

WTI at 11 bucks and CAD still at 71 cents.

OK then.

#238 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.20.20 at 8:59 am

#229
Big words, Al.
But, another “roaring twenties” could be coming.
Followed by a bank crash and a long and severe depression.

#239 PastThePeak on 04.20.20 at 9:01 am

#191 Farmer Fred on 04.19.20 at 8:04 pm
146 Damifino on 04.19.20 at 6:28 pm
#74 IHCTD9

You go that right John Boy! Farm life isn’t easy but it has gotten easier with more and more mechanization. I remember slugging 10,000 bales in hay season in my youth and all day Saturday cleaning out manure from barns that were built in the 1800s and weren’t accessible for tractors. Tons of cow manure wheel barrowed out to the barn yard…
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ah, the good old days of my youth. I hear ya on the manual manure cleaning…that was a chore dished out when I or my cousins pissed off the old man:) We slung lots of square bales as well (not to get in a pissing match, but we averaged about 35K bales per year…:)

A lot easier today of course to do more per person – round bales, detachable implements on loaders, wood splitters…but the economics aren’t any better…

#240 akashic record on 04.20.20 at 9:06 am

WTI at 11 bucks

Wake-up call to restructure the economy.

#241 IHCTD9 on 04.20.20 at 9:11 am

#232 Wrk.dover on 04.20.20 at 7:50 am
#225 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 11:42 pm

So do it already! It’s the theme you always pump here.
—-

I pump this idea for the younger folks who left for the big city to find a good paying job, and are pretty much headed for a savingless/assetless retirement due to RE/rent increases, prevalence of single incomes, and in some cases stagnant not so great wages.

There are a collection of good reasons why all these aspiring homesteader/prepper/tiny house/FIRE folks are young. They are playing by a different set of rules than you and I did, and a whack of them pulled the pin on something different. They realized they were on a hamster wheel going nowhere.

I’ve already got a bought and paid for run of the mill small town life and see no need to cut cost more than I already do via a off the beaten path lifestyle. Although if I were single…

One thing I suggested that I will also be doing myself is wood heat (outdoor gasification boiler, home built), but that’s it (for now).

#242 PastThePeak on 04.20.20 at 9:13 am

#219 YouKnowWho on 04.19.20 at 10:41 pm
#200 PastThePeak
——————————
Come on man, that’s anecdotal as it gets. A Reddit thread comments? Really? Must be as true as internet comment and restaurant reviews online.
+++++++++++++++

Yes it is anecdotal. That is the only information out there yet for COVID-19 patients that didn’t die. It is less than 3 months since it hit NA shores, and really less than 2 months since the cases started to climb.

What do you expect – peer reviewed studies from multiple authors? Maybe you can point to an “audited study” that indicates there are no complications?

I completely agree that the fatality rate for under 25s is very small. My point is that there are lots of stories of complications and extended duration of this illness, even if the person doesn’t die. Not dying doesn’t mean it is a walk in the park, and that it is no worse than the common cold. Logic is failing you.

#243 SoggyShorts on 04.20.20 at 9:18 am

#236 Pgljoy on 04.20.20 at 8:12 am
Have to laugh at all these people with electronic coffee makers. What do you do when your power goes out ,lick your Kcups. We live in small town where power can go out for a time.You quickly learn how to boil water and press your coffee or at least percolate it. On a gas stove ,BBQ or in the fire pit.Plus you can piss people off by saying you are saving the environment but not using Kcups.

*********
Weird flex, but ok:
1. The number of times that a power outage has prevented me from using my Keurig in the morning is zero.
2. If it does happen, then meh I’ll go without for that 1 day every 10 years.

#244 Dharma Bum on 04.20.20 at 9:23 am

No comment was made about cities “going away” or people “flocking” to less dense locations. But the virus will rekindle interest in non-urban living. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Maybe it was just blind instinct, but back in January I bought some land 3 hours north of Toronto and I also bought a shotgun.

My Spidey-senses must have been tingling.

#245 IHCTD9 on 04.20.20 at 9:27 am

#220 Figure it Out on 04.19.20 at 10:54 pm

So let’s look at where government will be cutting discretionary spending. Not health operating budgets. Probably not education. Not those cities vying for international business, headquarters, and country HQs. My guess? Rural infrastructure. You betcha.
— –

All that stuff you mentioned is paid for by the city/municipality/province (in parts), not the feds, and wouldn’t amount to a hill of beans compared to Trudeau’s projected deficit for just 2020. How many miles of rural road and new cop shops will 200 Billion buy? Probably all of them.

Your question is a good one though, but I see it differently. The middle class will 100% eventually have to pay for it, no one else could. It’s just a matter of how far we can kick the can down the road before something forces the government’s hand.

#246 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 9:28 am

@#230 O caNnABis!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0kCYP_iPtg

#247 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 9:30 am

@#238 Ponzie Plot
“Followed by a bank crash and a long and severe depression.”
+++

Followed by a World War started by an Austrian with delusions of grandeur….

#248 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.20.20 at 9:33 am

@#229 big? Al

“Dating apps will see a surge in activity as people get back to dating since everyone will be bored-to-death of masturbation by that point.

*****
You must be constantly bored….

#249 not 1st on 04.20.20 at 9:50 am

#229 BigAL on 04.20.20 at 7:29 am

Have a look at the condo towers built in the 70s and 80s. Look like a great place to live?

Every condo tower built is a future low income or even slum lord location. The strata fees cannot keep up the maintenance on these things and they fall into disrepair. Nobody will renovate them because that’s a losing preposition so they just rot in place.

Its the worst RE investment you can make.

#250 IHCTD9 on 04.20.20 at 9:56 am

#229 BigAL on 04.20.20 at 7:29 am

Stop thinking like an old man and put yourself in the minds of those 20-50 years of age instead. You’ll find its a much different world than the one you are suggesting.
——

Ok, I’ll I’ve it a shot.

20 – Can’t wait to graduate with my masters degree and head to the gleaming big city and start my new life!

25- Man, that degree was expensive, and these entry level positions barely cover my rent! But things will get better.

30 – Crap, I can’t get a date to save my life! Wish I had some more $ to impress the ladies, but renting this condo and knocking down my student and consumer debt takes everything I’ve got. Having GF would go a long ways to help cover expenses too!

35 – S.O.B.! Still renting! Still single! Still paying off my student debt!

40 – Bloody Hell, still in the same boat I was in 10 years ago, and my job just got outsourced to India! Now I’m in the gig economy with no benefits or pension!

65 – No assets. No savings. Whew, good thing I inherited my parents house! Now I can start saving for retirement.

#251 oh bouy on 04.20.20 at 10:03 am

Good on Denmark. Their Government has just become the 1st to announce that companies that are registered in tax havens won’t be eligible for bailout.

#252 IHCTD9 on 04.20.20 at 10:03 am

#249 not 1st on 04.20.20 at 9:50 am
#229 BigAL on 04.20.20 at 7:29 am

Have a look at the condo towers built in the 70s and 80s. Look like a great place to live?

Every condo tower built is a future low income or even slum lord location. The strata fees cannot keep up the maintenance on these things and they fall into disrepair. Nobody will renovate them because that’s a losing preposition so they just rot in place.

Its the worst RE investment you can make.
—-

Yep, 100%. It’s the doom of all condo towers everywhere. Condos always go to zero, by the time fist fights are breaking out at the condo board meetings, it’s already too late to sell, and you go down with the ship.

Condo’s are for renting, not owning. No dirt? No deal.

#253 JB on 04.20.20 at 10:10 am

Welcome to Condo Hell!

#170 Asterix1 on 04.19.20 at 7:10 pm

RE prices were already falling for a few years in GTA. This will make the slide even worse.

Things will get back to normal once a vaccine is shipped to all.

Will condos keep going up, no. No chance! Anyone who bought, anything in GTA in past while, are cooked!

Regarding suburbs, they blow in GTA. Too expensive to consider being viable. They are also mostly soulless and ugly!
…………………………………………………………………….
#249 not 1st on 04.20.20 at 9:50 am

#229 BigAL on 04.20.20 at 7:29 am

Have a look at the condo towers built in the 70s and 80s. Look like a great place to live?

Every condo tower built is a future low income or even slum lord location. The strata fees cannot keep up the maintenance on these things and they fall into disrepair. Nobody will renovate them because that’s a losing preposition so they just rot in place.

Its the worst RE investment you can make.
………………………………………………………………….
This is just a snippet of what our future could hold with the first wave of a virus. All of those hipsters and moisters tucked away in their 20 story concrete coffins must be going ape shit crazy. They can’t grow shit up there in the strata. Oh but the view is gorgeous. Ha ha ha. Wait until the values drop and elevators stop working then the water is turned off all of this after the leaky roof and windows. Nobody wants to live up there and they don’t even own anything except to right to occupy that stale stagnant air space. Eventually they will have to come down at night to raid our backyards for fresh fruit, vegetables and water. That’s is when the real war will start. Dystopian future yes but, not that far off if you think about it.

#254 YouKnowWho on 04.20.20 at 10:10 am

#24 Yukon Elvis on 04.19.20 at 1:04 pm
#12 Dave on 04.19.20 at 12:39 pm
Will Trump hit China with serious consequences for not acting sooner?
…………………………..

I believe he will. And I think the rest of the world will not be far behind. This is bad news for China. They are going to take a fearsome beating over this and probably have a financial crisis too. Probably the end of their 6% growth per year if you believe that number. They will be lucky if their GDP does not decline by 6% per year. IMHO.

…………………………..

You make a lot of sense Yukon. But, we should never underestimate how easily the consumer is bought and sold. Perfect example of this is how much we care about people throwing themselves off buildings after making iPhones for 12 hours a day. We don’t care. We want those iPhones! Joe Fresh is doing just fine after that Bangladesh building collapse. We’re all in on buying more cheap clothing.

I thought the consumer would surely turn away from Volkswagen for example after the diesel scandal. After all, VW were selling everyone’s health and lungs with their dirty diesels. People who made the healthy choice to walk and bike and not pollute with cars were paying the price!

Yet, lo and behold, the consumer didn’t care at all about this. They were easily seduced back into buying VW products with rebates, low prices, etc. Dieselgate? History.

We’re hooked on this consumerism crack. Personal ethics vs. a new shiny car from a filthy company at a great price?

Can your ethics drive you around?

#255 kc on 04.20.20 at 10:12 am

#227 Drunken Stupor on 04.20.20 at 12:36 am

Tired of this Covid madness. Can someone in mainstream media pls put things in perspective?

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Our owners are telling you the perspective they want you to know. “You are going to die of covids” Do some research into who owns all the radio and TV stations and you will see that they are owned by a small group, and this group is told what to report and why to report it.

There are NO independent mainstream media reporters any more. All post 9/11 media must follow the “official” story.

This time it is “FEAR” report your neighbour and fear the closeness of civilization.

1984 has come to fulfillment

Solution is easy…. turn OFF the TV and radio, live your life how you want to. NOT how they are programming you to think and live.

#256 David Pylyp on 04.20.20 at 10:13 am

The Sky is not falling.. Business will come back…

We are in the people’s needs filling business.
There will be changes, but in reality our function does not disappear. It may be different…
We may adopt new business techniques, Smoother, better communication. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvFfLcNMlKc

This video is from a different business’s perspective but his points are spot on. Nothing will change in its pure structure. Solve people’s problems, they will pay you.

Condos will be dumped because they no longer increase in value. Cash flow will be the only profit. New taxes on Capital Gains will be swift to harvest equity.

It will be interesting

David Pylyp
Toronto

#257 JB on 04.20.20 at 10:15 am

#244 Dharma Bum on 04.20.20 at 9:23 am

No comment was made about cities “going away” or people “flocking” to less dense locations. But the virus will rekindle interest in non-urban living. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Maybe it was just blind instinct, but back in January I bought some land 3 hours north of Toronto and I also bought a shotgun.

My Spidey-senses must have been tingling.
……………………………………………………………………..
Smart move. Land, water and space you will survive.

#258 Lahdeedah on 04.20.20 at 10:19 am

Wow…$11.32 a barrel for oil right now. Major indicator that the current mini-rally is not going to last…

Time to throw up those wind turbines, and fancy Tesla solar panel roof shingles…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oils-may-contract-skids-about-20-at-nadir-as-crudes-woes-continue-2020-04-19?mod=home-page

#259 IHCTD9 on 04.20.20 at 10:29 am

#226 stage1dave on 04.19.20 at 11:45 pm
#204 IHCTD9 on 18.04.20

Wow, a 7 string…man, I’m still tryin’ to cope with 6! I’ve never got up enuff nerve to try and “restify” one of my axes either, too worried I’d screw it up. Most of my stuff is Epiphone and 80s Aria Pro anymore, bailed on the Gibsons years ago…too much money for the amount it got used. Good luck on hotrodding that Schecter, btw; I haven’t kept up with 7 string stuff at all.

Fox body-wise, now on my 7th Capri between 5.0/t5’s and a couple turbo cars. After almost 12 years of ownership, I’ve put almost 100km on it…I’m a long time Mopar/Buick guy, so getting into these things in the 90s was kind of a breath of fresh air; cheap thrills (well, they used to be) that are well built, easy to work on, and PDQ!

Haven’t owned a Mustang yet, but the wife had an 85 GT for several years and loved it…and she is not liking this bubble-back window one bit!

Ha! We are living in the golden age for guitar players. It’s amazing – no, REDICULOUS how good of a guitar you can get today for the price. The Schecter is staying stock, it’s pretty much perfect as is. I’m modding my first guitar, so much good hardware for peanuts. That old Samick new, cost me almost 100 hrs of labour back in the 80’s! It’s totally beat top to bottom, inside and out, but 300.00 and some time will make it 2x better than it was new. I can’t really make it worse than it already is!

I always liked the RS 5.0 Capri’s. At one time, there were way too many foxbody stangs out there, so the Capri was something different! Back in the day, nothing went quicker/faster than a foxbody for the $, so I jumped on the bandwagon. My streetable ‘84 went high 10’s on a 150 shot of juice. I started fading out of the scene when “The Fast and the Furious” came out and the cops were nailing everyone who even chirped the tires. When drive clean came out, and the smog patrol, that was it. The car came off the road, and I never got back into modding again.

#260 Not So New guy on 04.20.20 at 10:50 am

With the price of oil so cheap in Canada, you would think someone would be turning it into electricity

#261 MF on 04.20.20 at 10:50 am

253 JB on 04.20.20 at 10:10 am

I am one of those millennials living in a condo with a great view although I don’t own it. What you describe couldn’t be further from the truth. Nobody is panicking. No one is worried about growing food. Nobody cares.

Values will will go down so I’ll give you that.

What I will say is this: if someone is prepping for the apocalypse because of a 1 month pandemic and buying shotguns and land, then that person is unstable, and probably to be avoided in the best of times. It’s stressful times like this where actually see who is crazy and cracking under pressure.

MF

#262 Ronaldo on 04.20.20 at 11:02 am

Absolutely disgusting.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/compliants-fines-parks-covid-19-1.5537814

#263 Lahdeedah on 04.20.20 at 11:04 am

#244 Dharma Bum on 04.20.20 at 9:23 am
No comment was made about cities “going away” or people “flocking” to less dense locations. But the virus will rekindle interest in non-urban living. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Maybe it was just blind instinct, but back in January I bought some land 3 hours north of Toronto and I also bought a shotgun.

My Spidey-senses must have been tingling.

– – – – – – – – – – – – –

I’ll spot your survivalist purchases and raise you the purchase of a reusable N99 mask I made 9 months ago, for the stinky bus terminal I have to walk by on the way to the subway for work. 2 years ago, I purchased a box of 50 disposable surgical masks for the same reason but never used, due to their non-ubiquitous colour. Recently gave those away to family members who needed them.

Before this happened, I had started thinking about where my ex-army, ex-boss lives with his survivalist, extra generator house up in the boonies, thinking how he’s prepared for anything…he has a wife who is a sniper champion…she can shoot a target at 1km…his job is to spot her while she aims. It’s really cute, in a weird, ultra conservative, ex-army kinda way. Ironically, my current boss also owns guns thanks to his moose hunting hobby.

#264 Figure it Out on 04.20.20 at 11:05 am

#245 IHCTD9 on 04.20.20 at 9:27 am

“All that stuff you mentioned is paid for by the city/municipality/province (in parts), not the feds, and wouldn’t amount to a hill of beans compared to Trudeau’s projected deficit for just 2020. How many miles of rural road and new cop shops will 200 Billion buy? Probably all of them.”

Yes, but the provinces will be even more strapped going forward. Many were in bad shape before, and tax revenues will be down with health spending and social transfers (welfare) going up. Rural municipalities are nearly all dependent on the kindness of their provincial government.

I’m kind of an anti Kunstler, if you’re familiar with his theories. He thinks suburbs will be doomed because of sprawl and high energy prices. But I look at Canada’s rural areas as a great big money sink. If you’re far enough out that you’re on well and septic, sure. But the cost of maintaining water treatment and distribution, sewer and pole lines has gone up faster than inflation, and will continue to.

The furthest reaches of our ‘civilization’ are fly-in mining camps, where everyone makes $100k+ and the value created/extracted justifies the expense, much of it borne by the private sector. And fly-in FN reserves, where GDP is often below $10k/person, but the government flies in everything at huge expense. But closer to home are the sprawling, less densely populated areas of the country, disproportionately full of retirees who don’t pay much tax but expect the closest hospital to be well funded and well staffed, want high speed internet, plowed, paved roads, regular garbage pickup, daily mail delivery, and all the other things that are really expensive to provide when the driveways are 200′ apart. It was a nice luxury while it lasted.

“The middle class will 100% eventually have to pay for it, no one else could. “

Yes, if it is paid for at all. I don’t see us buckling down, raising taxes and paying down the increased debt over the next 10-20 years. We either inflate our way slowly out of the debt, maybe at 4-6% for a decade — post WWII style, or we do a Japan — zero or negative inflation, zero interest rates, and the debt just keeps piling up for a decade or two. Wealthy bondholders do NOT want to see higher inflation.

But what do I know?

#265 TurnerNation on 04.20.20 at 11:11 am

#209 MF guess you’v never had bronchitis before.
But what of anyone you or others personally know? Why are all the woes of hardship from news reports or unknowns on social media? These are seeded stories for our oppression.
Use your head…where is the real time dashboard of all the heart attacks worldwide? And stories of agony, of patients, then grieving family. So much for patient health record confidentiality too.
A lot of This is a stage show we are being shown.

Have you tired to find a dentist? You cannot. Why no media stores of all the people currently in agony with tooth aches and infections all over the world? It’s collective punishment. You are being played man. Big time. You traded our freedom for a social media story.

#266 Sail Away on 04.20.20 at 11:11 am

With oil where it is, the large asphalt firms are stockpiling bitumen at rock-bottom prices.

Lafarge is worth your time. Good dividend as well.

#267 BillyBob on 04.20.20 at 11:19 am

#263 Lahdeedah on 04.20.20 at 11:04 am

Before this happened, I had started thinking about where my ex-army, ex-boss lives with his survivalist, extra generator house up in the boonies, thinking how he’s prepared for anything…he has a wife who is a sniper champion…she can shoot a target at 1km…his job is to spot her while she aims. It’s really cute, in a weird, ultra conservative, ex-army kinda way. Ironically, my current boss also owns guns thanks to his moose hunting hobby.

=================================================

I hope she’s a good shot, them viruses are pretty small.

#268 EE on 04.20.20 at 11:31 am

To #38.

Nailed it. Thank you.

#269 Kat on 04.20.20 at 11:31 am

My husband is in the trades and I have a side gig that involves repairing and restoring which means we are both handy. The people’s homes he goes into he is never surprised anymore how they don’t even know the basics of shut offs etc. Myself I need to make sure any items I have and sell are fully done as any diy is beyond most even the simplistic stuff that requires a screw driver. So while a house with chickens very much appeals to many taking care of one will be beyond most as self sufficient living is beyond the millennial city dweller. Why do you think making bread has taken off? Most have never baked bread in their lives learning this basic skill makes them feel self sustainable with their mountains of tp beside them.

#270 Mattl on 04.20.20 at 11:31 am

#41 TurnerNation on 04.19.20 at 1:40 pm
All boat launches are closed. You cannot go fishing and sustain yourself.
All to keep us safe and healthy right? This is the final land grab. Stay home and off the land they tell us

—————————————————————

Not sure where you live but the boat launch near me in the Okanagan was busy all weekend, probably 30 boats launched on Saturday.

#271 Barb on 04.20.20 at 11:35 am

Horrible news out of Nova Scotia.
Sadness is nation-wide.

#272 not 1st on 04.20.20 at 11:45 am

#264 Figure it Out on 04.20.20 at 11:05 am
—-

You have a backward view on capitalism. Capital is created by development. By not developing our resource rich hinterlands like the US did, we are vastly poorer.

#273 Figure it Out on 04.20.20 at 11:45 am

I got alternative Foxbody memories. My old man bought an early Fairmont. 200ci six, a pollution control system that worked like a strangulated hernia, and a four speed with an overdrive as tall as Wilt Chamberlain. It would pass gas stations, but it wouldn’t pass anything else. Factory order, because the ones on the lot had radios, and he wasn’t going to waste money when the old aftermarket AM unit from the Maverick worked just fine…

#274 Figure it Out on 04.20.20 at 11:47 am

Come to think of it, I think the Maverick radio was originally in the Falcon…

#275 IHCTD9 on 04.20.20 at 11:57 am

#264 Figure it Out on 04.20.20 at 11:05 am
—-

As far as I understand, small towns and municipalities are dependent on the province for hospitals and schools, and that’s pretty much it. Rural roads and related infrastructure costs are on the local residents directly.

I hear ya on the far flung FN reserves, but most of us rural folks pay pretty good taxes, and get near zero for it (no street lights, sidewalks, sewage, water, “free” garbage pickup etc…).

The small city I work in has a brand new school, police station, fire station, city hall, public works building and library. Most just over the last 5 years or so. I think the province chipped in a bit for some of these, but the bulk of the costs came from us property tax payers and local businesses. These projects were actually stated as reason for recent property tax increases.

The feds can save zero dollars on rural infrastructure- FN reserves excluded of course. Provinces input in two areas, and outside those, it’s at their discretion, and not big.

One thing we see out here in the boonies are rampant subdivision developments for the retirees and others moving in. The city is all for it due to the new taxes, and they are trying to keep these developments close to the city itself. Doing so gets every buyer a 200.00 city water/sewer bill every month, and a pretty sizeable tax bill. This is the rural future IMHO. Attracting businesses of decent size is a totally dead duck. New revenues are going to be from residential property taxes for the most part, and these taxes are what will pay for the bridges, roads and 100k/year city employees.

#276 Wrk.dover on 04.20.20 at 12:04 pm

#225 IHCTD9 on 04.19.20 at 11:42 pm

One thing I suggested that I will also be doing myself is wood heat (outdoor gasification boiler, home built), but that’s it (for now).

—————————————————

Smallest pieces, biggest surface exposed wood chips, conveyed through a solar super heat reflector mirror setup. You don’t even need to burn the wood to glean the gas.

Cake walk, but why bother?

You missed the day two weeks ago that I mentioned I am all in on Solar hot water and grid tied electricity here. 2.5 bush chords heats my R-2000.

The solar electric cost 13 years of previous billing.

Vehicular gasoline consumption, three litres/day, year in and out.

#277 JB on 04.20.20 at 12:07 pm

#261 MF on 04.20.20 at 10:50 am

253 JB on 04.20.20 at 10:10 am

I am one of those millennials living in a condo with a great view although I don’t own it. What you describe couldn’t be further from the truth. Nobody is panicking. No one is worried about growing food. Nobody cares.

Values will will go down so I’ll give you that.

What I will say is this: if someone is prepping for the apocalypse because of a 1 month pandemic and buying shotguns and land, then that person is unstable, and probably to be avoided in the best of times. It’s stressful times like this where actually see who is crazy and cracking under pressure.

MF
…………………………………………………………………..
Not my post about shotguns but still plausible. Sorry for your current living circumstances but I hope your view is gorgeous. You are at least very intelligent by being a renter and not an owner of one of these money pits. Been there and done that re the condo shit lifestyle. IMHO it is for people who can’t even change their own tire, light bulb or have the time to water a plant in the window or old people who go there to ride out their sunset days with four concrete walls to look at until they meet their maker. Just look at the sadness of people riding the elevator up and down every day. That is providing it is in working order! Values definitely plummeting!

#278 Lambchop on 04.20.20 at 12:10 pm

#204 Farmer Fred on 04.19.20 at 9:04 pm

Ah the memories. We had a big gaggle of geese and a roster of roosters that we put in the freezer. For that matter, we had our own beef and pork. European parents. We were so self sufficient that going to the grocery store was a once a month trip. Homemade bread, butter and cheese to go with the best homemade wine you have ever had…
____________________

Is this my brother?
This is exactly how I grew up and it taught me many valuable things that I still apply to my life today.

The value of hard work and a good work ethic, the true cost of food, how to think critically, and of course animal husbandry, gardening and preserving.

I live in a small city on a small lot in a small house. I have a garden, fruit trees, berries, chickens, and a cheese press. I don’t need all these things to survive, I can just go to the grocery store but there’s something about knowing I have a modicum of independence that helps me sleep well at night.

#279 JB on 04.20.20 at 12:21 pm

Just heard on the radio the GOP anti-vaxxer people are starting to rally against a vaccine.
My advice to them is “Then don’t take it.” Darwin was absolutely right in his theories. The method Darwin proposed for evolution was natural selection. Do to the fact that resources are restricted in nature, organisms with heritable traits that favor survival and reproduction will be likely to to leave additional offspring than their peers, causing those traits to intensify in frequency over future generations.

#280 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 12:26 pm

#262 Ronaldo on 04.20.20 at 11:02 am

Absolutely disgusting.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/compliants-fines-parks-covid-19-1.5537814

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That’s right: heavily fine the generally respectable and law-abiding, but give a free pass to transients and criminals. This includes the rail blockaders.

Different rules for different layers of society: inveterate troublemakers who can openly flout bylaws with no fear of reprisal and responsible taxpayers who are scrutinized for the smallest infraction.

Great strategy.

#281 Bezengy on 04.20.20 at 12:28 pm

Cabin life is great here in the north and I wouldn’t trade it for a New York penthouse, but that’s just me. Soon we’ll have running water depending on when the frost lifts, but for now it’s the loo and a weekly drive to the local spring. Waking up in a 50 degree room today was enough to make one really appreciate a hot coffee. Love our 10k trek every morning, no people but quite a few animals. Seen our first bear last week, gotta carry bear spray from now on. Lost my neighbour to one a few years back so we’re extra careful.

#282 Lahdeedah on 04.20.20 at 12:48 pm

#267 BillyBob on 04.20.20 at 11:19 am
#263 Lahdeedah on 04.20.20 at 11:04 am

I hope she’s a good shot, them viruses are pretty small.

– – – – – – – – –

Lol, I was gonna say, you can’t exactly shoot the virus.

#283 yvr_lurker on 04.20.20 at 1:01 pm

Well, there must be a first for everything. Probably the first time I have agreed with Sail Away in #280.

I am pretty sure that many of the by-law officers are going to let their new powers go to their head. Ffing ridiculous. No need to ticket a kid shooting hoops on an empty basketball court or especially the two women sitting at the end of a park bench. Just tell them to move along. Yet when all the misguided ones think that it is their right to block train lines day after day (so that parents can get back to Maple Ridge on the west coast express to pick up their kid from daycare.. and get a fine fromthe daycare), the protestors get a big pass. Is it perfectly reasonable to blockade the Burrard street bridge and Georgia street at rush hour inconveniencing thousands of little people trying to get home from work? Gov’t does nothing and let’s it go. But for sure, let’s give a 700.00 fine IMMEDIATELY without warning to the two twenty year olds who have lost their jobs sitting on the ends of the park bench.

#284 Sail away on 04.20.20 at 1:20 pm

#281 Bezengy on 04.20.20 at 12:28 pm

Cabin life is great here in the north and I wouldn’t trade it for a New York penthouse, but that’s just me. Soon we’ll have running water depending on when the frost lifts, but for now it’s the loo and a weekly drive to the local spring. Waking up in a 50 degree room today was enough to make one really appreciate a hot coffee. Love our 10k trek every morning, no people but quite a few animals. Seen our first bear last week, gotta carry bear spray from now on. Lost my neighbour to one a few years back so we’re extra careful.

——————

A bear ate your neighbor? Wild.

You’ve just taken us from pastoral splendor to the forest primeval. Nature red in tooth and claw.

And definitely launched yourself far into the lead for ‘most rural’.

#285 BrianT on 04.20.20 at 1:41 pm

I am in the GTA about 5 minutes from the GO train and we have a pack of coywolves (big ones-about the size of a German Shepherd) living right behind the back fence-also have wild turkeys, deer, etc. It is surprising how much wildlife lives in the urban areas.

#286 BrianT on 04.20.20 at 1:45 pm

#283Yvr-they do that because it is easy and they have a quota to fill-they aren’t going to try that nonsense at Jane and Finch in TO or the rough areas of North Etobicoke. They would end up with a broken windshield for sure (at best).

#287 JohnAB on 04.20.20 at 1:54 pm

To Garth:
Since your blog is so popular, would be nice to have some improvements in the comment section:
1. Have a + and – buttons (or thumbs up and thubms down) to know how many people agree/disagree with the comment (i think that would be an amazing feature, and statistically valuable for everybody)
2. Being able to leave a reply to a comment, that will appear under that particular comment, and will contain the name of the person the reply was addressed to.

Something like the Spot.IM plugin https://www.spot.im/ (or anything else that makes the comment section easier to read)

#288 Stan Brooks on 04.20.20 at 1:56 pm

Oil at 1.26 per barrel!

WCS at minus 10 bucks?

#289 Sail Away on 04.20.20 at 2:15 pm

#287 JohnAB on 04.20.20 at 1:54 pm

To Garth:

Since your blog is so popular, would be nice to have some improvements in the comment section:

1. Have a + and – buttons (or thumbs up and thubms down) to know how many people agree/disagree with the comment (i think that would be an amazing feature, and statistically valuable for everybody)

2. Being able to leave a reply to a comment, that will appear under that particular comment, and will contain the name of the person the reply was addressed to.

————–

Thumbs down.

#290 Lahdeedah on 04.20.20 at 2:19 pm

#288 Stan Brooks on 04.20.20 at 1:56 pm

Dude, it just flashed at $0.03… Three cents!!!

#291 akashic record on 04.20.20 at 2:20 pm

“And there it is… May WTI just traded below zero for the first time ever (trading -$7.50 per barrel)…”

The age of free energy has arrived…
Debt jubilee next…

#292 Lahdeedah on 04.20.20 at 2:21 pm

Omg, now it’s *negative*???

-$1.43

#293 IHCTD9 on 04.20.20 at 2:38 pm

#273 Figure it Out on 04.20.20 at 11:45 am
I got alternative Foxbody memories. My old man bought an early Fairmont. 200ci six, a pollution control system that worked like a strangulated hernia, and a four speed with an overdrive as tall as Wilt Chamberlain. It would pass gas stations, but it wouldn’t pass anything else. Factory order, because the ones on the lot had radios, and he wasn’t going to waste money when the old aftermarket AM unit from the Maverick worked just fine…
—- –

That’s hilarious! I also had a Fairmont. 1978, 2 door Futura model, also with the gutless 200 inline six. Pastel yellow exterior with a half (white) vinyl roof and white vinyl interior and tan dash. 3 speed auto sans od to ensure the minimum amount of horsepower made it to the ground.

The colour palette looked like something that came out of the back end of a goose.

And… I also owned a ‘77 Maverick. 4 door, red exterior with the vintage porno red interior and 250 inline six. AM radio as well :D

#294 IHCTD9 on 04.20.20 at 3:07 pm

#285 BrianT on 04.20.20 at 1:41 pm
I am in the GTA about 5 minutes from the GO train and we have a pack of coywolves (big ones-about the size of a German Shepherd) living right behind the back fence-also have wild turkeys, deer, etc. It is surprising how much wildlife lives in the urban areas.
——

Yep, those hybrids are really spreading. They’re killing off domestic pets on occasion out here. Big cities are loaded with certain kinds of wildlife.

I watched a documentary on Toronto Racoons a while back. According to the film makers, Toronto has the the densest population of coons anywhere in Ontario.

That’s actually scary based on how many I see out here in the sticks.

Question: have you seen any opossum’s? They have moved in out here. Started seeing them lying dead at the side of the road about 3-4 years ago. Last year I saw my first live (wild) one ever…

#295 akashic record on 04.20.20 at 3:08 pm

WTI

So next time I go to fill up the car, it will be free or I get paid to offload some of the storage, filled to the brim.

#296 Armpit on 04.20.20 at 3:15 pm

I’ve always said… one head… one roof required…and I’m happy where I live… I can rent a place in Florida during winter if I want…

Stay Strong Bluenosers…. we are all behind you in thoughts and prayers.

#297 mark on 04.20.20 at 6:45 pm

Mr Population, Doug Saunders said we’d all be happier and safer in sky kennels. Two weeks later he screaming the parks in the cities were our only hope!