Smile

The results were a shock.

In the midst of what can only be described as economic rubble, 30% of Canadians say they shouldn’t return to work until the virus is gone. Gone. No new cases. Another 20% want to stay home until there’s a vaccine. Whenever. A quarter would return to their jobs only when there’s no pressure on the health care system. Just 6% want to work now. So says this week’s Leger poll.

Conclusion: at least half the country is cool with sweatpants, Netflix and government pogey. Wall-to-wall media virus porn and politicians making the most of a crisis did a bang-up job of scaring the poop out of folks. And now they’re being paid to stay home.

Since this is not a virus blog, we won’t talk about the flattening curve, the under-utilized hospital emergency rooms or the way a bug ate our civil liberties. History will judge this pandemic against all those in humanity’s past. And it likely won’t be proud.

Let’s focus instead on what comes next.

Job losses and economic decline are without precedent. In four weeks 22 million Americans became unemployed, wiping away 10 years of growth. The jobless rate went from 3% to 17% in a flash. Retail sales have crashed. It will takes years for this to recover, which is a big deal since 70% of the US economy is based on consumer spending.

The good news is that America’s a highly-diversified behemoth with deep pockets and a presidential election in seven months. Once virus restrictions are eased in May the snap-back in GDP will be impressive, even if the jobless rate stays in double-digits until next year. The expectation of this is why stock markets have reclaimed a lot of the ground they shed when the virus arrived. In six months investors will be happy they sold nothing in the storm.

But Canada is not America. There are two things we need to fret over. Oil. Houses.

World crude prices were below $20 US again Thursday. Demand has been destroyed by the impact of the virus as governments in many countries turn off their economies. The situation is the most dire in 30 years, and for Canada it’s a blow. Oil is our biggest export. Alberta is fatal. So much for those Wexit guys.

As for real estate, it’s hard to overstate the negatives – and this sector is a bigger hunk of the economy than energy. Household debt is off the charts, at an historic high. We owe more than the Yanks did when their real estate collapsed. Legions of people bought houses with 20-times leverage, and even with rock-bottom mortgage rates they are now hurting. Over 600,000 households – representing 12% of all bank mortgages – have asked for payment deferrals. Airbnb has collapsed, which will force tens of thousands of units into the rental pool – dropping lease rates – or onto the open market, diluting prices.

In Toronto half of all condo sales over the last decade have gone to speckers and amateur landlords. Yet 40% of those owners lose money every month and hang in just to secure capital gains – an illusion now. In Vancouver 45% of homeowners say they won’t be able to keep making mortgage payments and a growing number believe property taxes will also go by the wayside. As a result the city’s mayor is talking bankruptcy. Imagine what they would do to civil service defined benefit pensions.

Almost 30% Canadians are on government benefits, including millions with no cash and all their net worth in property. It’s worth remembering the American market cratered when just 8% of homeowners got into financial difficulty. So if politicians and public sentiment keep workers from working for another two or three months, we need to seriously assess the risk in real estate.

Then there’s tax. Somebody must pay for the $200 billion in excess government spending the pandemic is costing as Ottawa pumps out the cash. Already the rich face a 54% top marginal rate, and their ranks are thin. The greatest pool of untaxed wealth in the country is residential real estate. How much longer can that remain the case?

Well, you can mull these concerns with me, or suck on the soma realtors are dishing out.

Says ReMax: “The COVID-19 outbreak will be a tough, but temporary blow to the Canadian housing market. As Canada collectively presses pause on the economy and our lifestyles, real estate demand and activity will temporarily take a seat. The bounce-back of the national housing market, however, is projected to be strong. A cooler Spring, a sizzling Fall.”

Says Royal LePage: “From our experience, we are not expecting significant year-over-year price changes in 2020. Home price declines occur when the market experiences sustained low sales volume while inventory builds. Currently, the inventory of homes for sale in this country is very low, matching low sales volumes as people stay at home. It is easy to mistakenly equate a handful of transactions at lower prices to a reset in the value of the nation’s housing stock. Distressed sales that occur during an economic crisis are a poor proxy for real estate value.”

There. Is everything clear now? Unprecedented economic destruction. People in no hurry to work. An historic debt crisis. Six million on the dole. But house prices will be higher.

At least we still have a sense of humour.

 

321 comments ↓

#1 Owe Canada on 04.16.20 at 3:03 pm

The “cure” is the reduction of the level of debt (the great “de-leveraging”). In 1931, Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon explained the process to President Herbert Hoover: “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. … enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people.”

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2008/10/deleveraging_fairy_tale_ending.html

#2 Frustrated on 04.16.20 at 3:03 pm

So I am a just a fish in this Covid 19 ocean, my story goes like this. I was in the States when this really broke so get back home to be quarantined 14 days. Tried to get back in work mode the listings that were to come online (value approximately 4.5 million) put on hold. The buyers that were ready to get a place are waiting . Four properties I administrate three did not pay Aprils rent. One tenant that was moving now wants $23,500 to vacate. My Daughter is pregnant she works at a big hospital was informed by her nanny two days ago she was quitting and going to collect C.E.R.B. this was after she came to us upset because she thought we were going to let her go and she really needed her job. So now no daycare for our granddaughter while my daughter goes to work at ground zero (She is dedicated and won’t stay home during these times),It doesn’t pay much lol but I get to see my favorite little person a lot more. Good luck and be safe

#3 Franco on 04.16.20 at 3:04 pm

Stay safe everyone.

#4 Natrx on 04.16.20 at 3:06 pm

Oh you didn’t know?! Toronto housing is immune to anything.

#5 Drill Baby Drill on 04.16.20 at 3:07 pm

Please please dear Lord give us a vaccine and I really really promise not to buy any more overpriced real estate.

#6 FK on 04.16.20 at 3:09 pm

Thank you again for being the voice of reason during this past few months

#7 Mark Moretti on 04.16.20 at 3:10 pm

“There. Is everything clear now? Unprecedented economic destruction. People in no hurry to work. An historic debt crisis. Six million on the dole. But house prices will be higher.

And so will the stock market.

Somehow you always forget how absurd that is.

#8 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.16.20 at 3:10 pm

I swore I’d never, ever, ever do the firrrsssst thing.

#9 Physicist on 04.16.20 at 3:12 pm

Soma
is what they would take when
hard times opened their eyes
Saw pain in a new way,
high stakes for a few names
Racing against sun beams,
losing against their dreams
In your eyes

#10 Howard on 04.16.20 at 3:12 pm

This new Bloomberg article about Canada’s impending real estate collapse is a great read. The info is already familiar to everywhere here, but it’s a good summation nonetheless.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/once-safer-than-gold-canadian-real-estate-meets-its-match

Some takeaways, copied/pasted from the article : 

– Canadian households spend the highest proportion of income to service debt among G7 nations (13.4%).

– Real estate has become Canada’s largest sector. Including residential construction, it accounted for 15% of economic output last year; energy accounted for 9%.

– The City of Vancouver fears it’s heading for insolvency after it surveyed residents and found that 45% of households say they can’t pay their full mortgage next month and a quarter expect to pay less than half of their property tax bills this year.

– Today, Canadian households owe C$1.76 for every dollar in disposable income. In Vancouver, that spikes to more than C$2.30 — a ratio that puts the so-called supercar capital of North America on par with Iceland before the global financial crisis.

– Canadians owe C$2.3 trillion in mortgages, credit card, and other consumer debt, about equal to the country’s GDP, which is an even higher ratio than the U.S. had before its housing bust.

– If only 2% of the housing stock were to be listed for sale, it would trigger the kind of supply shock behind a 1990 crash- Half of investors weren’t generating enough cash to cover the cost of owning their rental properties.

– About 30% of apartment rent due April 1 went uncollected.

– Nearly a third of Canada’s Airbnb hosts — who jointly had 170,000 active listings in late 2019 — need the income to avoid foreclosure or eviction.

#11 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.16.20 at 3:13 pm

Oh and those poll results are sickening. Country is full of a bunch of welfare recipients and scared rabbits.

#12 JB on 04.16.20 at 3:17 pm

#76 Smoking Man on 04.15.20 at 4:18 pm

Hey Dolce Vita, what’s your Twitter ID.
If you don’t mind sharing.

I’m @SmokingMan

Cheers..
……………………………………………………..
Gesù, l’account twitter di Smoking Man ricalca Twitter Faith Goldy e Alex Jones. Merda santa che fa paura Dolce Vita.

#13 PSL on 04.16.20 at 3:17 pm

stock markets won’t recover until the Banks do. JPM, WFC, BAC, C, etc etc are all getting destroyed today. As are the Canadian banks. this is a fake rally. the nasdaq is the only strong market holding things up.

Trump won’t get re-elected because he’s going to push for workers to go back and there will be another flood of cases. more deaths. he’s done.

the US has lost 22Million jobs in 3 months. MORE than they created since the economy recovered from the GFC.

and you think there will be no fallout from all this debt? lost jobs? money printing? good luck.

#14 JB on 04.16.20 at 3:20 pm

#2 Frustrated on 04.16.20 at 3:03 pm

So I am a just a fish in this Covid 19 ocean, my story goes like this. I was in the States when this really broke so get back home to be quarantined 14 days. Tried to get back in work mode the listings that were to come online (value approximately 4.5 million) put on hold. The buyers that were ready to get a place are waiting . Four properties I administrate three did not pay Aprils rent. One tenant that was moving now wants $23,500 to vacate. My Daughter is pregnant she works at a big hospital was informed by her nanny two days ago she was quitting and going to collect C.E.R.B. this was after she came to us upset because she thought we were going to let her go and she really needed her job. So now no daycare for our granddaughter while my daughter goes to work at ground zero (She is dedicated and won’t stay home during these times),It doesn’t pay much lol but I get to see my favorite little person a lot more. Good luck and be safe
…………………………………………………………….
I feel for you man. Clearly T2 and his merry band of malcontents didn’t think this through as the worms crawl out of the woodwork to milk the system for a freebie.

#15 Attrition on 04.16.20 at 3:22 pm

As much as I find those involved in the real estate fee industry as loathsome to be around as scurrying rats (nothing personal), I’d wager they’re likely correct.

Fall could be insane for RE (at least in the decent parts of the country to live in–not the 90% of the country that’s frozen, windswept, flat, depressing, empty, landlocked, hot, humid, boring, or francaphone…).

Folks sitting on cash, plumped up lenders eager to lend, people craving normalcy, deferred sales rebounding, shying away from digital assets…it could be spectacular.

Garth, by now you must be tempted to admit: there is no ‘troubled future’ for real estate in Canada. They won’t ever let it fail.

Population increasing.
300,000 immigrants a year and growing.
Vast proportion of the economy dependent on it.
Governments eager to print and borrow to keep it going.

Why would a little invisible virus stop it?

#16 Leftover on 04.16.20 at 3:23 pm

There’s no stopping taxation of capital gains on principal residences now; as Garth says it’s the largest pool of untaxed wealth in Canada.

It has the added attraction that the people who will pay the most are over 50, exactly the folks that Liberals want to target in order to satisfy their base of younger voters.

What does it mean? Surely a reset, notwithstanding economic turmoil that also undermines the housing market. When prices collapse it’s usually by 30% to 40% (Vancouver 1982, Toronto 1989, multiple USA cities 2009).

As Vancouver realtors are now saying, “$2 million is the new $4 million”.

#17 joblo on 04.16.20 at 3:26 pm

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/corbella-criticism-of-dr-tam-by-premier-kenney-good-medicine/wcm/d9adc97c-b5b3-4c67-b6f8-005fdfc31d04

Things that make me go hmmmm?

Who in Canada is heavily invested in China?

Bombardier? BMO? Caisse de depot? SNC Lavalin? Power Corporation?

#18 Dolce Vita on 04.16.20 at 3:27 pm

Well, if it was the intent of the Cdn. MSM to scare Canadians dungless they succeeded.

To quote the UK’s Channel 4 News, so what you’re saying is: 1/2 of Canadians happy to sit it out, many until 2021 and 1/4 need life support not far away, accessible to themselves only.

I was thinking today about many in Spain not going back to work (gunshy, can you blame them) and Italia down right intrepid compared to the Spanish (or foolhardy, we’ll have to wait and see).

Oh, Canada. I take that Q4 rebound back. Oh, my.

———————————————–

“There. Is everything clear now?”

Yup.

#19 Alberta Ed on 04.16.20 at 3:27 pm

The Trudeau Liberals are already considering taxing capital gains on homes. Why else would Canada Revenue require home sale information in your tax return?

#20 Ej on 04.16.20 at 3:28 pm

Asking a realtor if housing is a safe bet is like asking a used car salesperson if the 20 year old rust-bucket on the lot is in good shape.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/once-safer-than-gold-canadian-real-estate-braces-for-reckoning-1.1422032

#21 Howard on 04.16.20 at 3:28 pm

Oil is our biggest export. Alberta is fatal. So much for those Wexit guys.

————————–

And yet, Alberta is STILL on the contributing side. It sends more to Ottawa than it gets in return.

If this current situation doesn’t grant Alberta some time on the recipient side of equalization (for the first time in, what, 60 years?), then nothing will. The formula is permanently rigged against them.

#22 Andrew on 04.16.20 at 3:33 pm

“The good news is that America’s a highly-diversified behemoth with deep pockets and a presidential election in seven months. Once virus restrictions are eased in May the snap-back in GDP will impressive, even if the jobless rate stays in double-digits until next year.”

The occupy movement was laughed at because people being peaceful in the streets will dwindle after a few weeks. Bitcoin didn’t exist then. People at home without jobs still being paid by government while watching a stock market recover next year? Keep an eye on the new orange exit sign. Not a prediction just an observation.

#23 Habitt on 04.16.20 at 3:35 pm

By the time the second wave hits, we will have the guaranteed income. Then watch the underground economy. Not a good picture. Tax baby tax. Best wishes to all.

#24 Sean Bell on 04.16.20 at 3:36 pm

OK… boom… and we weren’t supposed to time the market… but let’s say one had some money come in late so he missed the January investment goal… (a good time not to jump in…)

… would now be the moment to jump in? Where would you put $100,000 of TFSA ready money today?

#25 Linda on 04.16.20 at 3:37 pm

I am not surprised by the reluctance of many regarding returning to work. First there is the very real concern that going back would expose them to Covid-19. Next, the CERB relief program may well allow some beneficiaries to have more income than they would have received from their usual employment. Throw in the fact our all too brief warm weather season is about to begin. So possible fatal infection vs. potential extra money in the pocket plus the summer off. Gee, let me think…..

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.20 at 3:39 pm

Well,
Lets see how many “For Sale” signs start popping up on the toys( Boats, bikes, quads, etc etc etc.) come June when the depth of this starts to sink in…….
I expect the banks will start repo’ing houses by Sept. then it will be an avalanche of Banks rushing in to be first to flog these dying horses

#27 Faron on 04.16.20 at 3:41 pm

Thanks for all of your work on this blog. This post seems right on and is frightening in what the implications are for the country. Just this morning I ran up Victoria’s skid row where now there is a legitimized tent city. It sprawls for two city blocks and lines the newly installed bike lane termed the “Lisa Helps Expressway”. The homeless are encouraged to sleep in parks and on the beaches to maintain social distancing. It’s not hard to imagine this city within the city expanding as people’s economic dreams melt to zero.

Aside from more gov’t bail outs, there are two things I see that could help support the real estate markets in the long term. Probably won’t help the near term bite.

First, demand. Folks have to live somewhere and the rental market in Van, Toronto, and here in Victoria is extremely tight. That may help keep inventories down and prices high. Obviously, that says nothing about those who simply can’t afford their homes any more, but a serious question will be where do those people go who have to sell? Move back to Alberta? Or will enough speculators who are eking it out put their air BnBs on the rental market and ease rental supply?

Second, the rate of supply of new homes is going to crash. The US housing starts came in lower than expected and I’m sure the same will be happening here.

Maybe the long-term upside to this is that it will wake people up from the false promise of moving to coast where coffee shops and yoga studios abound and real estate goes up up up. Then they will realize that profoundly livable, fun, safe and cheap places are strewn across the heart of Canada and over to the east coast and they will move there and live where markets are in some semblance of balance.

I would love to see statistics on physical economic mobility wherein people move to achieve a better livelihood for themselves. I would wage that it’s been concentrated in people moving to coastal BC, Toronto and in years past Fort Mac, Edmonton, Calgary (back when oil was a thing). It would be refreshing to see people begin to value other places in this beautiful country. Easier said than done, I know, butt he west coast and southern Ontario are overbought and overdone.

#28 Dolce Vita on 04.16.20 at 3:41 pm

You ‘gotta hand it to the Cdn MSM, they’re consistent if nothing else.

Watched CTV Nat’l News a couple of nights back and if not for what I posted yesterday that has opened in Italia you would conclude this:

✔Austrian dress shops open (no masks or gloves or distancing).
✔Spanish doing construction (some of them, masks, gloves & distancing).
✔Danes letting their kids go to school (empty schoolyard), and
✔Italian card shops open, only (masks, gloves & distancing).

They have really done a number on Canadians, I’ll say. I am all for prudence and acting responsibly but I think they have swung the pendulum way over to the one side, scaring Canadians all to heck.

Hopefully here in Europe we can show that once you have a flattened curve, low transmissibility rates and with the proper precautions, it will be OK to start reopening the Cdn. economy, I sure hope so after what I read here tonight.

#29 Yegmillenial on 04.16.20 at 3:45 pm

I’m so pissed at myself that I wasted 4 prime years of my life after university with almost no income. This was my fault due to a lack of work ethic, entitlement and maybe some mental illness(mild depression/anxiety).

Now I am grateful because I am the lucky few who just happened to start a new job and although things are slow, it has a good career path and income potential.

But who knows, if things get worse, I may not forgive myself for squandering 4 years of life.

#30 Oracle of Ottawa on 04.16.20 at 3:45 pm

From what I’m reading, there is a disconnect from what is happening to the markets where investors believe this is a simple correction and everything will be fine by next month, and the most likely scenario where everyone sits at home and collects pogey for who knows how long. If the consumer is the driving force behind the economy, then how is that supposed to happen?

#31 J on 04.16.20 at 3:51 pm

Hey blog dogs. What is your opinion on these so called tail funds that payout big during dramatic downturns. Is it prudent to keep 2-3% of a portfolio in them? What are the downsides?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-advised-universa-tail-risk-fund-returned-3-600-in-march

#32 Blair on 04.16.20 at 3:52 pm

Is Canada washed up, not because of adversity, but because of the attitudes and values (or lack of values) of the people?

#33 TurnerNation on 04.16.20 at 3:53 pm

Solution: when the banks begin cutting credit,
re-assessing spec properties, lowering LOC/HELOC limits and increasing interest rates, we will see people begging to work.

Italy we ain’t. They sound more normal.
($2000 is nice…but you’ll have to give up your borrowed toys, rec and spec properties – the benefits of credit.
Embrace socialism, or get back to work)

#34 Stone on 04.16.20 at 3:54 pm

Job losses and economic decline are without precedent. In four weeks 22 million Americans became unemployed, wiping away 10 years of growth. The jobless rate went from 3% to 17% in a flash. Retail sales have crashed. It will takes years for this to recover, which is a big deal since 70% of the US economy is based on consumer spending.

———

And how is this different from Europe? Maybe…nothing.

#35 HowDeepThe Pain? on 04.16.20 at 3:55 pm

I hear rumours Justin is considering a rent support program, paid directly to the landlords. Sounds ridiculous, is the government going to backstop every investment?

Then again, it would be interesting to see some landlords squirm. Admit that they haven’t been paying taxes on a separate income property(or basement) or go without a few cheques from either the renter or the government.

#36 NFN_NLN on 04.16.20 at 3:55 pm

“Another 20% want to stay home…”

And this boys and girls, is why communism always fails. Always.

#37 Mean Gene on 04.16.20 at 3:55 pm

The City of Vaincouver has over 1 billion in reserves and a million dollar chandelier hanging under a bridge they can hock… and one of the poorest postal codes in Canaduh.

#38 Figure it Out on 04.16.20 at 3:57 pm

The US has 2.5x the cases per capita that Canada does, and 3.6x the death rate. Curve flattening is starting in both countries, so we aren’t just expecting their rates soon. Our banking system is better capitalized and more stable, and our political and medical leaders have bumbled less. We aren’t facing a ruinously divisive domestic election in November.

This isn’t the time to go wobbly.

Humour can be found in many places. The US National Association of Realtors still employs “Chief Economist” Lawrence Yun, who didn’t see the last bust coming either: “Home sales will decline this spring season because of unique economic and social consequences resulting from the coronavirus outbreak, but much of the activity looks to reappear later in the year. Home prices will remain stable because of a pandemic-induced reduction in inventory coupled with less immediate concerns over foreclosures.”

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.20 at 4:05 pm

@#290 Ronaldo
“Yes, and over here on Vancouver Island we are also told to stay home and only go out for essentials yet they allow people from the lower mainland and everywhere else to hop on the ferries and come over and use our parks and beaches to get away for the long weekend. Go figure. Makes no sense whatsoever and makes one wonder why we take all this so serious. Are they that stupid?”
+++

Nah, not stupid, just illiterate( that means we cant read).
OR we want ALL you Islanders to get sick and die so we can buy your homes cheap cheap.

The truth isnt pretty like I am….

#40 NFN_NLN on 04.16.20 at 4:07 pm

#5 Drill Baby Drill on 04.16.20 at 3:07 pm
Please please dear Lord give us a vaccine and I really really promise not to buy any more overpriced real estate.

Done. God has blessed you with an immune system. Up to 75% of people fight the virus and gain immunity without even being aware of it. 23% get flu symptoms and a paltry 2% get flu symptoms and die. Overall not bad.

#41 espressobob on 04.16.20 at 4:07 pm

This is a pandemic. Some of this hasn’t sunk in yet for many.

A nasty little bug is proving quite contagious and kills roughly 3.5% of those who contract it.

It should reason that we all follow protocol.

While it has gutted certain areas of the economy why would anyone want to find out if their the 96.5% ?

Given evidence many more people have contracted the virus than have sickened or been tested, the mortality rate is likely far lower. – Garth

#42 Kevin on 04.16.20 at 4:08 pm

Great post, Garth. The real estate market makes no sense.

I’d appreciate your advice on currency (CAD, USD) and hedging it with some precious metals too. I feel the loonie is toast.

#43 NFN_NLN on 04.16.20 at 4:09 pm

“As a result the city’s mayor is talking bankruptcy. Imagine what they would do to civil service defined benefit pensions.”

Justin Trudeau will just hand over B.C. to the Chinese government in exchange for settling some of our debt, similar to Russia and Alaska.

Trudeau already serves the Chinese so this isn’t even a stretch.

#44 Fused on 04.16.20 at 4:11 pm

Thank you CODX, took profit today at $13.00, used TFSA room in January, $70,000 more in the TFSA now. Will now be hunting for more deals now, hopefully another leg down.
Between Dec 2018 low point and the March 2020 low points, how are people not making money hand over fist, an amazing two plus years of returns.

#45 Dolce Vita on 04.16.20 at 4:13 pm

#12 JB

Did not see the Smoking Man request, thank you. If he trolls me I do hope he knows there is a Mute feature in Twitter.

That translation was very bad and BTW, I follow those people, FYI.

Centrist with Left and Right leanings depending upon the subject.

In other words, if the person Tweeting is rational and makes a cogent argument I’m all in regardless of political stripe.

Ya, and I follow Trump as well (Ok you got me, Biden too).

#46 NFN_NLN on 04.16.20 at 4:16 pm

#28 Dolce Vita on 04.16.20 at 3:41 pm
You ‘gotta hand it to the Cdn MSM, they’re consistent if nothing else.

Hopefully here in Europe we can show that once you have a flattened curve, low transmissibility rates and with the proper precautions, it will be OK to start reopening the Cdn. economy, I sure hope so after what I read here tonight.

I guess you didn’t watch the news. Justin “I’m on my 34th day of my 14 day quarantine” Trudeau said, no economy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEx15CXhf0w&t=45m50s

But he is sending more Canadian tax dollars for WHO contributions

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEx15CXhf0w&t=37m9s

#47 calgary rip off on 04.16.20 at 4:17 pm

Thank you for this information.

Experts are debating about immunity either through infection and through vaccine. Right now it is unclear how long immunity will last through exposure. It seems possible that this bat nonsense will be here for years. Perhaps if containment measures are successful transmission will stop although this also seems unlikely.

What is key is not the virus itself but individual response. It is curious that mainstream medical is not discussing alternative theories such as vitamins. No one seems to know exactly how and why a misaligned immune response occurs. It can happen to anyone. A cytokine storm seems more problematic than Covid itself.

Given the unpredictability of this bat virus it seems likely that problems will be around for at least 2-3 years. And that is if a vaccine is forthcoming. Even with a vaccine if the virus keeps circulating like influenza again the real issue will be preventing cytokine storm. Also at key issue is the reality that in many patients lungs are working fine but oxygen sats are dropping due to hemoglobin uncoupling from red blood cells. And in the meantime conventional medicine is seeking to treat patients with ventilation oftentimes rather than consulting with other ideas from orthomolecular medicine.

The general populace is correct: The only way to prevent infection is to live on your own island. This is problematic for crop harvesting and the economy. Maybe damaging for social relations as most humans don’t think like cats.

I am thankful that the internet exists and people are learning to treat themselves rather than relying on evidence based medicine which at this point seems entirely irrelevant besides only offering oxygen in help to breathe. Other than that it seems medicine offers ZERO to covid patients. And I work in a hospital. Im glad that when I visit stores the vitamin C is selling out. That is a good sign that the message is getting out and will likely prevent suffering and “flatten the curve”. Not one single patient should die because evidence based medicine needs to hurry up and figure out what they are doing, either through vaccine or other strategies. Im hopeful that the vitamin C therapy and D3 will be available to those in care homes who need it the most.

#48 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 04.16.20 at 4:17 pm

factsnotfear

#49 Doug t on 04.16.20 at 4:18 pm

PLEASE let this outrageously over priced housing market in this country collapse – pretty please

#50 JacqueShellacque on 04.16.20 at 4:19 pm

The vast majority of the young Toronto techies I work with care nothing for the economic impact of shutting everything down, and will whine when the first attempts at resuming normalcy are made. Yet when word got out that a family-run pizza place they liked was closing for good, they lamented how everything after the virus will be Starbucks and Dominos. They didn’t seem to connect the shutdown to the economic and financial impact of forcing a business to close.

#51 The truth and mull over thoughts on 04.16.20 at 4:20 pm

Thanks again Garth
While I don’t like the post, the truth must be told.

Let’s mull this over
High debt of governments,
a real concern but I don’t fully understand MMT and to be honest I remember when Canada was called a Banana republic. Not sure how the BOC buys government bonds with a ledger entry.
Anyway some kind of 100 year bond all corporations and Canadians will be forced to buy paying no interest?
Housing
Yes another concern what happens to all the mortgages
You said the banks will not fail, but boy will there be allot of stress. My thoughts some kind of government guarantee. For example housing prices fall 50 percent, government will guarantee the loan and the mortgage will have to be paid, maybe 50 year mortgages.
Otherwise whats the choice million of defaults and then what? Houses go to zero?
Employment
Yes we are all basically lazy, met a guy today said his employee quit and went on CERB till it’s over. He has six months of work backlog. And cannot find anyone to work for him Imagine.
I think when the economy gets going they won’t be able to find any workers and besides we have the do not pay rent movement.

One thing how can they tax house gains if your predicting the housing market will have a major pull back?

Okay selling Canadian stocks buying American.

I think the only saving grace is some sort of, I hate to say it, make Canada Great, bring home all the manufacturing and yes maybe prices will be higher but it will create jobs, and no robots until the debt is paid.

Have a great day thanks for posting.

#52 TheSpangler on 04.16.20 at 4:29 pm

Looking for some tasty real estate bargains this fall.

#53 Ronaldo on 04.16.20 at 4:30 pm

#13 PSL on 04.16.20 at 3:17 pm
stock markets won’t recover until the Banks do. JPM, WFC, BAC, C, etc etc are all getting destroyed today. As are the Canadian banks. this is a fake rally. the nasdaq is the only strong market holding things up.

Trump won’t get re-elected because he’s going to push for workers to go back and there will be another flood of cases. more deaths. he’s done.

the US has lost 22Million jobs in 3 months. MORE than they created since the economy recovered from the GFC.

and you think there will be no fallout from all this debt? lost jobs? money printing? good luck.
—————————————————————-
And you disagree with Trump wanting to get people back to work when you think there will be no fallout from all this debt? lost jobs? money printing?

Has to be one or the other. What is your solution?

#54 Figure it Out on 04.16.20 at 4:33 pm

Leger:
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/COVID-19-Tracking-Study-April-14-2020.pdf

Public Square Research:
http://www.publicsquareresearch.ca/reports/covid_19.pdf

Canadians seem generally more satisfied with their governments’ responses than in the US, the UK, or here in steerage.

#55 THE DEBT LOVER on 04.16.20 at 4:34 pm

LOTS of DEBT from governments, corporations, and small business will enable us to prosper our way out of this.

And when WE ALL take on more debt we fuel the kitten economy into a Roaring LION.

OUR PLANET is FUELED by DEBT.

Don’t mess it up!!!

#56 NFN_NLN on 04.16.20 at 4:36 pm

#24 Sean Bell on 04.16.20 at 3:36 pm

… would now be the moment to jump in? Where would you put $100,000 of TFSA ready money today?

SPY pre-COVID = $330
SPY bottom = $220
SPY today = $280

330-280 = $50 gains = year or more
280-220 = $60 gains = weeks

The majority of upside already happened champ. You eek out some slow gains now or you can go balls deep into something like AC.TO or MGM :)

#57 the Jaguar on 04.16.20 at 4:37 pm

@#1 Owe Canada on 04.16.20 at 3:03 pm

Mercy. There’s schadenfreude and then there is something as cold blooded as that quote by Andrew Mellon in your post. Wonder how the people who prefer sweatpants, Netflix & government pogey will react when the full measure of it washes up on their beach.
Even a gradual reopening of the economy won’t save those who behaved like pigs at the trough.

#58 David McDonald on 04.16.20 at 4:37 pm

I have a couple questions for Garth about the consequences of the massive increase of government debt and the destruction of private sector productivity.

The first is the evolution of inflation and interest rates. During the great recession the US engaged in quantitative easing and lots of experts predicted massive inflation. It didn’t happen, inflation and interest rates remained low. This time even the Bank of Canada has started quantitative easing. What’s going to happen?

The second worry is about the stability of our country. I recall the separatist sentiment in Quebec was strongest when the balance sheet of the federal government was weakest. Many in Quebec simply wanted to walk away from the debt. What is going to happen this time?

#59 JacqueShellacque on 04.16.20 at 4:44 pm

“Hey blog dogs. What is your opinion on these so called tail funds that payout big during dramatic downturns. Is it prudent to keep 2-3% of a portfolio in them? What are the downsides?”

The downsides are losing all money you invest in those particular funds, not to mention drawing Garth’s ire.

However Nassim Taleb (author of ‘Black Swan’, one of the partners of Universa, along with his protege Mark Spitznagel) believes that our financial markets are built using inappropriate risk models, and that the actual amount of risk is potentially catastrophic. Mark Spitznagel stated in an interview I saw online last week that he fully expects the markets to give back the last decade of gains (even beyond what’s happened to this point). The investment model they propose is what they call the ‘barbell’: either extremely low risk or extremely high risk, and nothing in between. So like 85% of your portfolio in T-bills cash etc, the rest risky but convex (low downside, very high upside) assets. Taleb asserts that someone invested for the last 50 years, who just happened to ‘miss’ the 10 worst days in that timeframe, would have double the CAGR of someone who just bought and held through those days. The important thing (according to this paradigm) is to avoid being a sucker when the next LTCM or Lehman Brothers boondoggle hits.

So as much as I love Garth, Doug, and Ryan, I have moved 3% of my portfolio into bear ETFs (SDS and HSD), and plan on putting another 2 or 3% into VIX if/when this all calms down and it goes back to its usual lethargic levels, in order to be hedged for the next time (and there will be a next time). I’ve also taken a moonshot on GUSH and HNU (about 1% of total portfolio).

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.16.20 at 4:46 pm

#28 Dolce Vita on 04.16.20 at 3:41 pm
You ‘gotta hand it to the Cdn MSM, they’re consistent if nothing else.

Watched CTV Nat’l News a couple of nights back and if not for what I posted yesterday that has opened in Italia you would conclude this:

✔Austrian dress shops open (no masks or gloves or distancing).
✔Spanish doing construction (some of them, masks, gloves & distancing).
✔Danes letting their kids go to school (empty schoolyard), and
✔Italian card shops open, only (masks, gloves & distancing).

They have really done a number on Canadians, I’ll say. I am all for prudence and acting responsibly but I think they have swung the pendulum way over to the one side, scaring Canadians all to heck.

Hopefully here in Europe we can show that once you have a flattened curve, low transmissibility rates and with the proper precautions, it will be OK to start reopening the Cdn. economy, I sure hope so after what I read.
————————————
You really should get your facts straight before you shoot off your mouth.
Austria is just opening Mc Donald’s, drive in only and only 70 country wide.
Here in BC they always allowed drive ins at fast food restaurants.
And there’s lots of construction going on.
By the way, you’re still worshipping Salvini?

#61 willworkforpickles on 04.16.20 at 4:47 pm

US GDP may be impressive but the national debt load isn’t.
Even before the crisis it took 105% of the GDP just to service the debt with a trillion $ more being added to the yearly total to service everything else.
That was when the USND stood between 23/24 trillion dollars.
By the end of this year the US National Debt will balloon to 34.5 trillion dollars requiring an additional 1.5 trillion or more (likely 2 trillion annually) added to it to service it. Not to mention the usual trillion on top of it still to be added to the NATIONAL DEBT servicing everything else.
It’s past the point of no return. A debt apocalypse is coming a great deal sooner now than before this pandemic existed.
The stock market has not reclaimed a lot of its ground due solely to GDP expectations but for FOMO and the subsequent run up in stocks as the corrupt US government earmarks 1.7 trillion of the so called 2.2 trillion support package for Wall St. and corporate America going under the guise of the covid pandemic platform to get away with it unabated.

Three years ago Trump said he was the king of debt. He said he loves debt. He’s done very well with debt. He said if a downturn comes he can re-negotiate debt with discounts. Now he increases the US debt with what appears to be little or no intention of paying it back.

Many holding a devaluing US currency will be dumping US dollars around the world.

A destabilising currency crisis in all its horror this way cometh.

#62 Smartalox on 04.16.20 at 4:50 pm

A couple of thoughts about the poll regarding people not wanting to ‘return to work’ until it’s all over – if ever!

There are a lot of people who DO continue to work – from their homes. They may be doing their jobs, getting paid, and paying their bills, but also not looking forward to a return to their offices (long trafficky commute, cold lunches, boring meetings, annoying co-workers) any time soon.

It may be difficult to contemplate returning to the office (NOT returning to work) if your kids are not ALSO in school / day care. One of the greater challenges my wife and I have encountered in working from home is balancing work time and child care.

I work from 8am to 12 noon, while she does child care. Then from 12 noon to 6pm, she works at her job, while I do the child care. Then I’ll work from 7 to 11pm to make up the rest of my day, and she’ll finish her day as well, once the little one is in bed.

But neither of us is looking forward to returning to the panicked rush to get everyone up, fed, showered and out the door by 7:45 every morning, or the hustle to get home by 5 and dinner on the table by 6pm every night.

So, to recap: no great desire to return to our previous working lives, but no significant change in the amount of work being done. Also, a return to work is not anticipated until a return of children to school (or camp, if summer) is possible.

#63 Smartalox on 04.16.20 at 4:54 pm

Vancouver would not be on the verge of declaring bankruptcy, if they had actually COLLECTED property taxes from residents instead of allowing residents aged 60 and older to DEFER their property taxes until their properties sold.

The risk attached to that huge IOU has just spiked as thousands of (fully paid) property owners watch the value of their properties evaporate, and if forced to sell, are looking at moving into retirement and care homes.

#64 Iconoclast on 04.16.20 at 4:57 pm

At this point, the debt no longer matters.

Nobody can rationally argue that it will ever be repaid.
Or even that it could be repaid, or should be repaid.

The fuse is lit on the destruction of western currencies.
All of them.

My bet is that Italy defaults first. On everything.
Everyone else will follow.

All debt will be zeroed one way or another. Might as well
do it now in the shadow of a pandemic.

About time too. Time to start over.

#65 Trojan House on 04.16.20 at 4:58 pm

#56 David McDonald on 04.16.20 at 4:37 pm

There was no inflation because the banks did not loan out the money. I think this will be more deflationary because people won’t have confidence to go out and spend because they don’t have a job and the banks won’t have the confidence to lend to people who don’t have jobs.

#66 John on 04.16.20 at 5:02 pm

I live in Gibsons BC which like the rest of the country is in lock down.
My buddies wife’s a realtor up here, she’s got numerous Chinese buyers who want to get out of China ASAP.
The housing market will do just fine.
Nothing to see here.

#67 Yoowzers on 04.16.20 at 5:02 pm

#60 JacqueShellacque on 04.16.20 at 4:44 pm

“Hey blog dogs. What is your opinion on these so called tail funds that payout big during dramatic downturns. Is it prudent to keep 2-3% of a portfolio in them? What are the downsides?”

The downsides are losing all money you invest in those particular funds, not to mention drawing Garth’s ire.

However Nassim Taleb (author of ‘Black Swan’, one of the partners of Universa, along with his protege Mark Spitznagel) believes that our financial markets are built using inappropriate risk models, and that the actual amount of risk is potentially catastrophic. Mark Spitznagel stated in an interview I saw online last week that he fully expects the markets to give back the last decade of gains (even beyond what’s happened to this point). The investment model they propose is what they call the ‘barbell’: either extremely low risk or extremely high risk, and nothing in between. So like 85% of your portfolio in T-bills cash etc, the rest risky but convex (low downside, very high upside) assets. Taleb asserts that someone invested for the last 50 years, who just happened to ‘miss’ the 10 worst days in that timeframe, would have double the CAGR of someone who just bought and held through those days. The important thing (according to this paradigm) is to avoid being a sucker when the next LTCM or Lehman Brothers boondoggle hits.

So as much as I love Garth, Doug, and Ryan, I have moved 3% of my portfolio into bear ETFs (SDS and HSD), and plan on putting another 2 or 3% into VIX if/when this all calms down and it goes back to its usual lethargic levels, in order to be hedged for the next time (and there will be a next time). I’ve also taken a moonshot on GUSH and HNU (about 1% of total portfolio).
….

They just made 3600% in March!……

#68 Ronaldo on 04.16.20 at 5:03 pm

The Federal Quarantine Act

Read and heed. Or get fined.

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-justice/news/2020/04/government-of-canada-further-facilitates-enforcement-of-the-federal-quarantine-act.html

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.16.20 at 5:06 pm

What’s the sudden love affair with Italia.
Sure, it’s a beautiful country.
But they always have been a basket case.
Tourism is their mainstay.
Can’t see the tourists coming back any time soon.
Tough time, ahead.
At least in Canada, we have natural resources and stable governments.

#70 Camille on 04.16.20 at 5:07 pm

Again this survey is worthless. People will desperately want to return to work when they start to have no money (if most are spending what they earn EI or equivalent will not suffice). So they’re ok for a little while but not for long. Wait and see.

#71 Lost...but not leased on 04.16.20 at 5:11 pm

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.20 at 3:39 pm
Well,
Lets see how many “For Sale” signs start popping up on the toys( Boats, bikes, quads, etc etc etc.) come June when the depth of this starts to sink in…….

I expect the banks will start repo’ing houses by Sept. then it will be an avalanche of Banks rushing in to be first to flog these dying horses
=================

Its already starting..

Local auction house was on News…many people are already throwing in towel and trying to get ahead of the tsunami by putting near new “used” assets on auction block.

This creates a spiral that impacts the “new”market .

Watch bartering come back big time…

Housing Market?…hard to say…Canadian banks don’t want “jingle mail”…at least not historically.

#72 conan on 04.16.20 at 5:13 pm

Scary when you think about it. Everyone is saying the vaccine is the magic bullet, but Covid has already mutated. That is the latest according to studies from India.

If true , the vaccines that ends up working would probably cure cancer as well.

#73 Not So New Guy on 04.16.20 at 5:15 pm

I used to love my country. Mainly because of the people. I don’t think I do any more. Mainly because of the people.

That you would have that many people living high off their children’s servitude disgusts me to no end.

I wonder how these people would answer if you asked them how they think this will all play out

#74 Lahdeedah on 04.16.20 at 5:15 pm

#83 Blacksheep on 04.15.20 at 4:54 pm
Whom on this blog believes:

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

As you saw with the toilet paper hoarding situation, and the mismanaged messaging around face masks and social distancing, not many people have the latter quality you listed: common sense. The so-called “bankrupting” was merely a side-effect of a lack of common sense, ill-preparedness and misleading messaging.

This state of “bankruptcy” as you call it cannot last forever. There are limits to how long things can stay shut down, mathematically, and it will be that in-between phase of opening things up but not yet having all the measures in place, for antibody testing, a vaccine, proper mask protocols for people in public, which will be the next challenge.

I feel like this will be a “negotiation” phase during which people will be deciding whether resuming normal activities is for them or not, and how far they will go with protective measures. Do I really want to return to the office? Do I really want to ride the packed subway for 45 mins, there and back?

NY Governor Andrew Cuomo is ordering everyone in public to wear a mask or face covering. Frankly, his pragmatic leadership is refreshing. Let’s hope our Premiers and Prime Minister are up to the task.

#75 JSquared on 04.16.20 at 5:16 pm

Will be interesting to see how life permanently changes after the virus has past. Perhaps folks don’t want to return to work because they’ve gotten a taste of how convenient working from home actually is. Mon-Fri, 9-5 is going the way of the dodo bird (thank gawd) and people are enjoying it. No more long commutes stuck in traffic, gas prices, distracting co-workers, office politics etc. You can actually get an 8hr workday finished in about 4 when you’re not bombarded with constant interruptions and coworker’s swinging by your space to socialize.

#76 BrianT on 04.16.20 at 5:17 pm

Currently in the GTA houses are still selling (even with bidding wars)-you can see it on Bungol-why? Beats me. I guess in the GTA the desire to buy RE is the only emotion that is stronger than the fear of the virus. Re taxes it is beyond absurd, almost perverse to have people making Tax Free gains of 5 or 6 million or more on their principal residence while working stiffs have to pay income tax on their measly wages.

#77 the Jaguar on 04.16.20 at 5:18 pm

Here is the full cold blooded quote. I had to look it up.
Inspiring, really. Just the medicine society needs.

“liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate… it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people.”

#78 Alberta Boy on 04.16.20 at 5:23 pm

My wife is a front line hero RN working emergency and Covid screening rotations in a large Alberta hospital. People honk their horn outside our house and give us coffee coupons etc. She then goes to work with 5 to 10 other people and they do absolutely nothing (ok, there was one concerned guy with a runny nose yesterday). All of the other floors on the hospital have been emptied out with everyone being paid to stare at each other while they await the surge. They all wonder amongst themselves if this was the appropriate course of action but there is an underlying fear of overtly questioning; everyone is afraid to not look “woke” enough. No one wants to be a denier that hates the most vulnerable. I am pretty sure we could have housed the most vulnerable at 5* resorts with carefully prepared food and medical care for a lower cumulative cost on society. But….I am pretty sure the vaccines and contact tracing applications are the goal more than protecting the vulnerable. Strange times…(For the record, I am an atheist NDP supporter so I have a baseline wokeness and generally agree with giving up my freedoms for others).

#79 Lee on 04.16.20 at 5:25 pm

Civil service pensions won’t get touched. I’ll wager on it.

#80 Healthcare Worker Support on 04.16.20 at 5:28 pm

Grocery store clerks getting a wage premium due to the risk involved working during this time.

But not healthcare workers.

Healthcare workers in BC told they are not getting anything (aside from nurses) and thanked for their commitment. That is a lot of healthcare workers putting their life on the line and can’t even be rewarded with an hourly wage premium for doing so at present.

Nobody cares about hot air political talk in crisis. Put money where mouth is and heads need to role in supply chain when the BC system is out of masks literally the first week of this crisis. When amazon is more realiable and able to fulfill your PPE needs better and faster than an internal gov health system supply chain it might be time for an investigation. The public deserves answers.

#81 Lee on 04.16.20 at 5:31 pm

#44,

What’s your evidence Trudeau serves the Chinese? He sent them a batch of surgical masks when the mayor of New York was telling people to hit the town?

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.16.20 at 5:34 pm

66 John on 04.16.20 at 5:02 pm
I live in Gibsons BC which like the rest of the country is in lock down.
My buddies wife’s a realtor up here, she’s got numerous Chinese buyers who want to get out of China ASAP.
The housing market will do just fine.
Nothing to see here.
———————————
What lock down.?
You can still go from Gibson to Vancouver, if you wanted.
No roads are blocked.
About 60% of all businesses are still open.
You should see the car line ups at Starbucks and McDonalds.
Wonderful to walk around Steveston. No pesky tourists.
Pajo’s Fish and Chips is open.
The air is fresh and the weather gorgeous.
Take this Italia.

#83 BrianT on 04.16.20 at 5:34 pm

All this talk of a vaccine is hilarious-any vaccine getting out within 12-18 months is definitely rushed to market and
quite possibly will screw you up permanently-so total panic about a virus but total complacency about somebody injecting you with an experimental vaccine. Makes sense.

#84 greyhound on 04.16.20 at 5:38 pm

“For those interested in a compilation of more skeptical opinions coming from medics, this link offers a good aggregation:”
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/#latest

#85 binky barnes on 04.16.20 at 5:43 pm

A couple of days ago I called Canada the world’s biggest sissy nation. Did not get one bit of blowback because everybody knows it to be true. No group of people on this planet enjoy the good-life as much as we Canadians do. And this is all fine except when one stops to consider the huge number of people who do not work, do not pay any tax, who lack motivation to do so, etc, yet still enjoy the good-life…….courtesy of government freebies.

Why would anybody expect these Canadians to get out of their sweat pants, off the couch and turn-off Netflix in order to help get the country’c economy moving again? Won’t happen.

The chickens have finally come home to roost, my friends. This country–that was once the bright shining light on the hill–is toast.

#86 twofatcats on 04.16.20 at 5:44 pm

I can see huge decreases in house sales. I am not sure we will see huge decreases in house prices for the SFD primary residence.

If house prices do not decline in the next few months it means a SFD primary residence in the GTA is one of the safest assets to own on this planet. It survived a global recession of 2008 and a global pandemic of 2020. It is safer than gold, safer than cash, safer than equities and safer than private sector full time employment. The only safer asset in this country is a Canadian public sector defined benefit pension plan.

#87 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.16.20 at 5:44 pm

I figgered it out! The poll was strictly limited to teachers and other government employees receiving full pay and “working from home” and millennials on CERB making more than they would be making actually working. GRAVY TRAIN BABY!

Problem solved.

#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.16.20 at 5:44 pm

About the picture:
The dog is saying:
Leck mich am Arsch.
Only German speakers will get the meaning, sorry.

#89 Calgary retiree on 04.16.20 at 5:45 pm

DELETED

#90 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.16.20 at 5:46 pm

#75 JSquared on 04.16.20 at 5:16 pm sez:

“Will be interesting to see how life permanently changes after the virus has past. Perhaps folks don’t want to return to work because they’ve gotten a taste of how convenient working from home actually is. Mon-Fri, 9-5 is going the way of the dodo bird (thank gawd) and people are enjoying it. No more long commutes stuck in traffic, gas prices, distracting co-workers, office politics etc. You can actually get an 8hr workday finished in about 4 when you’re not bombarded with constant interruptions and coworker’s swinging by your space to socialize.”
————————————————
Does the pay drop commensurate with the time served? Be careful what you wish for.

#91 Reality is stark on 04.16.20 at 5:56 pm

With cannabis sales up 600% since the crisis began you won’t be getting your rent as a landlord.
Socialists spend your money they don’t give you money.
They may tell you they didn’t marry you for your money but they will initiate divorce to grab the majority of it.
You’ll find out who they really are in court.
A bungalow in Toronto is worth 5 times family income. Family income was $70,000 and is now $60,000 after the Covid reset unless you are a public servant.
You can do the math. $300,000 is all your house is worth and all it was ever worth.
Just because our government created a lot of social justice warriors trained to rape you in family court and artificially raised unproductive housing assets to tax it back later does not qualify them as “friendly”.
Like all socialist governments they smile to your face while they are stabbing you in the back.
We love our socialism while it kills us softly.
There is nothing like the morality of mediocrity.
The CRA can try to get the money back from Canadians who blew the overpayments on weed and booze but you can’t get blood from a stone.
Property owners about to suffer a 50% haircut will also face additional taxes.
Public service salaries and pensions are safe.
You were warned and did nothing. You never pressured our government to be responsible and accountable and you’ve been swindled.
No wonder the rest of the world thinks Canadians are naive.

#92 Al on 04.16.20 at 5:59 pm

Brad Lamb’s take on the lockdown:
On Covid-19 And Our Immediate Future

Written by Brad J. Lamb

Like most Canadians and citizens of the world, I am accepting our government’s current version of the best response to COVID-19. I am, however, becoming less satisfied as I watch the world melt away in an unprecedented loss of wealth, business, and employment. The damage to our world as a result of these forced measures will be devastating. Alcoholism, drug addiction, spousal abuse, child abuse, suicide, depression and other mental health issues are massively on the rise. Poverty and an inability to pay monthly bills is also soaring. The stress on everyone is becoming unmanageable. It is possible that the toll that the government exacts from its citizens to fight this virus will exceed the damage caused by the virus itself. In effect, we have two pandemics: COVID-19 and an economic depression (along with the deaths and misery that come with the latter). We will need to deal with both.

New American models put the United States at a revised estimate of up to 60,000 COVID-19 deaths. The Canadian model currently estimates 11,000-22,000 deaths. The estimate for Canada appears to be high based upon the assumption that both countries are in approximate lock step with the maturity of the virus. The U.S. is tracking 23,000 deaths currently and Canada is at 767 (as of April 14). I wouldn’t be surprised if in a week the Canadian estimate of 11,000-22,000 gets reduced substantially as new models arise as a result of new data.

Keep in mind, we were all told that the objective of the extreme emergency measures being imposed (i.e. – almost complete commercial shutdown and home quarantining) was to ‘flatten the curve.’ This was clearly communicated as the only way to keep the medical system (specifically our hospitals) from being overloaded and allowing people to get the necessary treatment in order to survive. The goal was NOT to reduce our infection rate to ZERO before lifting the personal and economic restrictions.

By all accounts, in both the U.S. and Canada, the use of intensive care facilities and ventilator usage is well below the doomsday scenario of 30 days ago. In fact, in most regions, we are through the surge and hospitalizations are falling. My understanding is that hospitals here in Canada and, in the U.S., have more capacity than they need for beds and ventilators. According to a Globe and Mail article published on April 13, in Alberta, as of April 11, only 13 patients were in hospital intensive care for the treatment of Covid-19. Even in Ontario, which has struggled with low testing rates and outbreaks at long term care homes, hospitals are not being overrun with Covid-19 cases. As of April 11, official Ontario statistics show that nearly 80% of the Ontario ventilators are not being used. In other words, there is plenty of patient capacity. It looks like we have accomplished what we have been asked to do. We pushed the infections and admissions down the road, so the hospitals did not get overloaded. We know and have been told that hiding from COVID-19 isn’t a medium or long-term solution. It is going to run its course. We will have to gain herd immunity as a community. Waiting in isolation for the infection rate to hit zero or for a miracle vaccine or cure was not the plan 30 days ago. This is a new narrative. We were told we just need to flatten the curve. This was to allow the most vulnerable an opportunity to be treated in hospital. This has been accomplished. Comparing COVID-19 impacts on mortality with other deadly causes in Canada is displayed below (as deaths per year).

CAUSE OF DEATH DEATHS PER YEAR

Suicide 4,200

Flu 8,500

Accidental Deaths 13,300

Accidental Drug Overdoses 14,500

Heart Disease 50,000

Cancer 83,000

Alcohol-related Deaths 88,000

Every cause of death should be treated with equal importance, and if 5,000 people die from COVID-19 this year, it will be tragic. It is also tragic that 14,000 people die from drug overdoses as well. We do not quarantine the country to prevent opioid overdoses. 88,000 people die from alcohol-related incidents. Interestingly, the LCBO is an ‘essential service’ in this time of quarantine and pandemic. We absolutely need to be better at protecting the ‘at risk’ population, but this is not everyone; it is possibly 1-2% of the population.

If we had an option to self-isolate for many months, we could look at that, but we do not. More people may die in Canada due to the quarantine that due to the virus. On average, Canadians save $160/month. One third of Canadians have no savings. Many millions in Canada literally live paycheque to paycheque. Deaths from the 7 causes above will definitely increase as a result of the quarantine. Every week of quarantine will carry a cost.

The Federal budget deficit is going from a bloated $16B in 2019 to an astounding, unbelievable number of $180B in 2020. This is a just an early estimate and the final tally will likely be much higher. The deficit during the ‘great recession’ of 2009 was approximately $50B to put this in perspective. Our cumulative debt as a 153-year-old nation is about $750B pre-COVID-19 (in one year we will add another $180B). Who exactly is being helped by this monster deficit? Well, I can tell you my companies are not being helped. I have talked to dozens of other small and medium sized business owners and they aren’t getting any meaningful help either. Getting any answers from any level of government is impossible. I am dubious that any of the largesse will really help people. I am sure that abuses from fraudulent claims will occur in large numbers. Are unemployed workers really getting the help they need, and if so, for how long? It seems to me that a better path might have been advisable. For instance, if the elderly and infirm had self- isolated starting in January and masks had been issued to everyone else with an instruction to maintain a reasonable physical distance, could we have avoided the shut down?

Well, Taiwan and Sweden did just that and they avoided an economic shutdown and personal quarantine. Obviously, trusting people to stay at a safe distance and using masks work. Why did the government not trust us to do it this way? Were we lied to about this? $180B buys a lot of masks and ventilators. Why wasn’t the quarantining of compromised individuals initiated when we knew about the risk for these people? Why did all levels of government and experts sit on this until the only response was a world-wide depression initiated by a coordinated shutdown and quarantine? For those who do not know, in the 1930’s we had what was is known as the “Great Depression.” It was a horrendous time – just ask your grandparents and they will shudder at the memory of the misery. Violence, murder, lawlessness, and suicide was epidemic. Unemployment peaked at 25%, GDP declined by 30%. On a world-wide basis, very few are now working. It is very likely that Canada and the U.S. will see unemployment at levels higher than 25% and GDP will likely fall more than 30%. This happened overnight. The Great Depression rolled on for years to hit those numbers. The misery from this will be epic. The tax base for government spending is going to be greatly reduced, likely to 50% of a typical year. Where will they get all this helicopter money?

So, what do we do? We must demand honesty from our leaders. For instance, why are they comfortable publishing death/mortality models but they won’t publish honest infection models? Why aren’t the statistics of infection and death not published by age category and whether the person had an underlying illness? Is it because we would learn that the infection is not deadly for the vast majority of those infected and this would undermine the government’s message that the only solution is totally economic shutdown and self-isolation for EVERYONE? They seem content to scare the shit out of the population with ‘honest’ death rates (which by all accounts are proving to be less than initially thought). Why will they not release the TRUE infection models? No one can believe that just 26,000 people have been infected in Canada. This number is absurd.

In a random test, it has been reported that as much as 70% of the Lombardy province of Italy has been infected with COVID-19. There are 10 million people in Lombardy. So, 7 million people by way of this study could reasonably be infected in Lombardy, with perhaps 9,000 fatalities. Admittedly, 7 million is probably too high, but it does create food for thought. The fact is we do not know because no one will tell us.

The Italian government’s tests confirm 160,000 people are infected and sadly, 21,000 are dead. This is for the whole of Italy. Is it possible that tens of millions of Italians are infected with 21,000 dead? Do we want to know this? I think we do. A significantly lower death rate will likely change our response. Already the models in the U.S. are being adjusted down. World-wide mortality rates range from 1% to 10% based on tested individuals. What if the mortality rate is 1/10th, 1/20th, or 1/100th of the published mortality rates? What if COVID-19 is similar to the seasonal flu based on mortality rates and overall expected deaths?

I think we need to demand to see the truth about the models of those infected. We need to see an estimate at how many Canadians have this virus NOW! We must quickly test millions of people without symptoms to understand the real model. It could be that several million Canadians are already infected and cured. Many people that become infected have none or very slight symptoms. Many millions of people may be immune. Why are the immune in quarantine? We should isolate those at high risk and allow all immune and low-risk people back to work and re-open our economy. Before you ask me to continue to help drive our civilization to ruin, I want answers, I want the truth, and I want it now.

If you like this, please share it. We need our government to take action now before it is too late. All our lives are at stake.

Brad J. Lamb

#93 Stan Brooks on 04.16.20 at 5:59 pm

In cuckoo’s land of the debt slaves prices always go up.

And intelligent, honest, competent real estate professionals lead the charge to wealth and prosperity with integrity and transparency. Along with excellent private bankers who never ever underwrite risky loans and competent central bankers who inspire trust and confidence.

There is no inflation in this land of the wealthy, just growth and prosperity.

And despite doom and gloom articles like this one:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadians-could-see-less-food-higher-prices-if-aid-does-not-come-agriculture-group-184636729.html

there will be no inflation folks, the BoC boss said so.

Cheers,

#94 PastThePeak on 04.16.20 at 6:02 pm

When you pay a lot of people more to not work – than work – the results should be fairly predictable…

#95 BS on 04.16.20 at 6:18 pm

Conclusion: at least half the country is cool with sweatpants, Netflix and government pogey.

That is what free stuff does. It makes people lazy. No incentive to work. The longer this goes on the worse it will get. And it looks like it will be going on for a while with the Drama Teacher at the helm. He understands free stuff and not working since it is the story of his life.

Printing money can only do so much and there will be negative consequences. The CAD is going to tank. The stock markets are not reflecting this and are overvalued IMO. I have increased my positions in USD cash and gold over the past week.

#96 Jay on 04.16.20 at 6:21 pm

I give up, were already toast, doesn’t matter how much I’ve lost on my house and how much I’m going to be taxed.

All real estate will get taken away from us and divided up so everyone has an equal amount, of course friends of Justin and government officials will get the nicest places.

Business will become state owned, so they can control pay and equality. No more imports of vehicles past 2020 allowed, no more private ownership of anything. Only Costco will remain open, and will be government controlled, with limited stock and plenty of lines. We will be fixing up our 2019 pickup in 50 years to keep it running. We will create our own Canadian made car to give out, that will make a Lada feel like a Rolls Royce, comes in any colour as long as its black.

Trump will enact sanctions against Canada for not opening up the border fast enough, we will blame all our problems on the US for the next 50 years.

Justin the dictator, already has the beard started, soon he will start erecting revolution statues of himself to proclaim the success against the virus and the new order of things. It will be known as the Revolution.

If were going to become Cuba, at least we can join them, make Cuba a new province and give us the option to live down there instead and enjoy the nice weather.

#97 Smartalox on 04.16.20 at 6:26 pm

@ The Jaguar #77:

If you want to see the living, 21st century embodiment of that quote, have a look here:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/jared-kushner-slumlord-millionaire-cant-evict-the-virus

When the ‘great financial crash’ happened in 2008-2009, the people who walked away from residential mortgages were overwhelmingly white, middle-class families that had leveraged gains in the value of their primary residences to finance and purchase additional real estate, either to ‘flip this house’ or to become small-time landlords.

When the crash occurred, most of these investors liquidated their ‘investment’ real estate… mostly to save their principal residences.

As happened in 1931, the pieces of the wrecks were ‘picked up by more enterprising people’ in the form of corporations like Kushner’s, and professional Air BnB’ers that seem to own dozens of properties, but not live in any of them.

Guess who’s going to survive THIS real estate downturn?

#98 Steven Rowlandson on 04.16.20 at 6:28 pm

This pandemic will in hind sight be seen as the farce it really is except for those on ventilators or in body bags.
The plague that will do the most harm is the on going plague of political correctness and government debt which is still officially too sacred to do anything against. The cost to our existence due to this could be more severe than most would admit to.
One other plague which is present in Canada is the real plague bacillus called Yersinia Pestis. Nature is always lurking in the back ground waiting to get you all….Remember humans all safety and glory is fleeting.

#99 Nonplused on 04.16.20 at 6:28 pm

I’m surprised the number of people who don’t want to go back to work isn’t much higher. Most people alive today weren’t around for the Spanish flu so I think the effects of all the shut businesses, social distancing, self isolation, daily death counts, etc. on the psyche has probably been far reaching. People will never return to “normal”.

If the Spanish flu serves as a good example of what to expect, if the measures are relaxed too quickly there will be another major outbreak and we’ll be right back where we started.

I know the Alfred Newmans (what, me worry?) of the world think it is no big deal or some sort of conspiracy (the don’t remember the Spanish flu I guess). But I for one would want to see the death counts drop significantly before phasing things back in. And I would start with businesses, not schools! Schools are breeding grounds for every other kind of virus there is at the best of times. Head lice too. Yuck. Kids are gross.

And people please please please stop pointing to the hospital utilization to say “see? No problem.” All that proves is that social distancing works as it did for the Spanish flu. We know from Wuhan what happens if you do nothing in the early phases. They went from not knowing they had a problem to people dying in the hallway in 2 months. The west largely avoided that scenario (so far) because we knew it was coming in advance.

So, no matter what Trump says, don’t expect to be going back to “normal” anytime soon. He is engaged in calming the nation at best or wishful thinking at worst. He can’t “restart” the economy by edict, he can only remove federal restrictions. People have to crawl out of their hidey-holes before the economy will restart and at present they have had their wits scared out of them. And if there is a second outbreak and we go through the whole thing a second time the damage could be permanent.

And now we have reports of meat plants closing due to outbreaks. Now I know why the meat section at Co-Op got ransacked, but I didn’t realize people were that forward thinking. Or had that much freezer space. Dog help us if that starts happening to Amazon or Costco. At some point we are going to have to just risk getting sick. But I don’t know if the Costco cashiers really agree with that. They may not show up.

#100 David R McDonald on 04.16.20 at 6:29 pm

#65 Trojan House on 04.16.20 at 4:58 pm

Thanks, I see your point. Demand could be so low we actually get deflation.

#101 Faron on 04.16.20 at 6:32 pm

#76 BrianT on 04.16.20 at 5:17 pm

Currently in the GTA houses are still selling (even with bidding wars)-you can see it on Bungol-why? Beats me. I guess in the GTA the desire to buy RE is the only emotion that is stronger than the fear of the virus.

————————————-

I once listened to a good description of how money flows during a economic downturn. A lot of it simply gets taken out of the equities market and much of it will flow elsewhere. This is a huge pool of dollars and if everyone in the world knows that Canadian real estate is the physical equivalent of the Japanese Yen, then the money will flow here. Foreign buyer tax or no.

#102 Wrk.dover on 04.16.20 at 6:33 pm

I am naively curious about Companies that bought back stock in the recent past and now need some unanticipated cash flow.

Do they put their bought back investment for sale at current market value and take a haircut, or what?

Is ‘what’ socialism?

#103 Cabin Fever in Alberta on 04.16.20 at 6:34 pm

#78 Alberta Boy

Awaiting a surge that wont ever come. All the health experts, doctors nurses unions will keep telling politicians to keep society shut down, no matter how empty the hospitals and cases there are, why would they say any different. They still have jobs. No skin in the game.

Politicians will also listen to what they say and keep everything shut down. Why would they do any different, they still have job. No skin in the game. Also apparently an infinite amount of money to just pay everyone without question because the priority is only to save lives.

I cant imagine what small town and places like Nunavut feel like. No cases, no chance of infection yet they are still shut down and cant live their lives.

#104 YouKnowWho on 04.16.20 at 6:35 pm

The House Hype in this country is unbelievable.

Obviously there is a reason for this hype.

Canada after all is the 2nd smallest country on the planet, and we’re all pickled in here tighter than Macau @ 21,340 people per km2. Right?

#105 Trudeau on 04.16.20 at 6:36 pm

Nice poll results ,eh ?

What have I said over and over again ?
Canadians r the dumbest lol

Guess what , Trudeau is a lock for the polls ..he’s paying them to stay home.Why work ?

RIP Canada

#106 cto on 04.16.20 at 6:38 pm

Right now the big guys at organized real estate are on conference call will Trudue and poloz.
They are saying,
“make it work!,… or else!!!”

The Trudue/poloz team know what to do,… and its gonna mean some pain for all Canadians but mostly for those that worked the hardest and saved the most.

Ohh welll….

#107 GrumpyPanda on 04.16.20 at 6:41 pm

Toronto real estate board used to publish a weekly newspaper of houses for sale. From 1989 to 1994 as prices kept going down every week they reminded you this is a great time to buy. Commission-based salespeople are not going to publish a report telling you to come back in two years when prices are lower

#108 espressobob on 04.16.20 at 6:44 pm

Given evidence many more people have contracted the virus than have sickened or been tested,the mortality rate is likely far lower. Garth

There is no evidence to prove that those who fly under the radar are spared. The medical profession is taking this bug seriously.

I would love to wake up in the morning and view this as a tempest in a teapot. Like you and most it just seems if we behave this crisis will blow over.

That would be a good ending.

#109 Deplorable Dude on 04.16.20 at 6:47 pm

#78 Alberta Boy “She then goes to work with 5 to 10 other people and they do absolutely nothing ”

BC Hospitals are 97% empty when it comes to reserved Covid19 resources. Meanwhile my neighbour opposite has had heart related surgery cancelled indefinitely.

They need to at least start scheduling the elective surgeries again.

Meanwhile another neighbour 4 doors down, sold his home at the start of March, literally a few days before the sh!t hit the fan. This week he took down the realtor sign….and hasn’t moved…..hmmmm?

#110 butter upon bacon on 04.16.20 at 6:48 pm

Steve Eisman was wrong about shorting Canadian housing/banks.

He was also wrong about shorting Tesla…..for the same reason.

In his own words: “It’s very hard to short a stock that’s a cult”

#111 Sail away on 04.16.20 at 6:48 pm

#92 Al on 04.16.20 at 5:59 pm

Brad Lamb’s take on the lockdown

——————–

Very good. Pretty much my exact take on the whole thing since the Diamond Princess.

I admit that I may have been too subtle in posting my extreme skepticism about the Corvid emergency. Will try to be more direct about things in the future.

#112 Oakville Sucks on 04.16.20 at 6:49 pm

If the photographer have taken the photo when the dog was crapping it would have looked like he was smoking a cigar.

#113 Sail away on 04.16.20 at 6:51 pm

Shawn Allen, you owe me an apology.

#114 Wexit delayed but not forgotten on 04.16.20 at 6:52 pm

I agree with Garth that Alberta is pooched. The covid is one thing but $5 WCS (oil) is quite another, and we aren’t getting much help from natural gas either.

The layoffs that started in 2014 never really got better, but now there is a second wave going on that is not just trimming fat but cutting to the bone. Selling a house right now in Calgary is damn near impossible especially anything approaching a million dollars. And it’s made even more complicated now that you can’t really do open houses or even viewings.

But, for all the smug Ontarians that think this is well deserved, remember: Where goes Alberta goes the nation. You can’t see the price of your largest export drop by 90% and expect to be able to keep the socialist dream alive.

#115 Bark on 04.16.20 at 6:53 pm

#29

—-

Think of it this way. That experience has shaped your values so you probably have more appreciation for the opportunity you have now. When I was young I quit a good job that basically fell into my lap. Only I had no idea how good I had it until I worked elsewhere. I didn’t appreciate a good job until I experienced working not so good jobs. I talked to my boss and was lucky to get my job back but I lost my seniority and tens of thousands of dollars in wages. But the experience changed my idiot mindset and made me appreciate what I had. That alone made it worth it. Sounds like you’ve got a good head on your shoulders. Realize you screwed up but dont beat yourself up over it too much. It probably has made you a better man.

#116 YouKnowWho on 04.16.20 at 6:56 pm

The Realtor release sounds like I should buy the $3M detached immediately.

30% of Small Business will go E.O.L.
30% of Corporate jobs will go E.O.L.

Replaced by Amazon delivery and warehouse jobs.

Laziness will take hold.

And somehow we’ll all be buying $700K 400sqft boxes in the glass skies and $3M 20 foot lot detached homes?

Sounds right to me.

#117 Stone on 04.16.20 at 6:59 pm

So, the banks are strong due to capital and liquidity controls imposed after 2008-9 GFC. What about other companies?

I’m thinking new criteria will be enacted that forces all companies, from big and all the way to Mom and Pop size businesses, to follow the same kind of capital and liquidity controls.

This way, if a quarantine lockdown occurs again, the need for gouvernment handouts and/or intervention becomes irrelevant.

I’m tired of all these loser zombie companies that can’t stay afloat on their own for more than 2 weeks. If you own a company like that, you’re a loser, not a business owner.

That’s right. Loooosssseeerrr!

Was that mean? Yeah. Does it make it any less true? Nope.

#118 LuckySOB on 04.16.20 at 7:00 pm

I am happy to see the parasitic real estate agent industry suffer. Let em endure a slow and painful death as the problems they helped create in house pricing slowly begin to correct themselves. Its satisfying to see them squirm in discomfort as their profits tank. I wonder if even they buy the BS they are spreading, or if they know its a steaming pile….

#119 Figure it Out on 04.16.20 at 7:00 pm

Doug is Justin’s wingman.

https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/i-dont-want-them-in-ontario-ford-says-of-americans-until-pandemic-under-control

Class act — getting out there and saying what the PM diplomatically can’t.

#120 YouKnowWho on 04.16.20 at 7:01 pm

Statistics Canada said last week that 14 per cent of Canadians it surveyed reported consuming more alcohol than they had been pre-pandemic, while 10 per cent said they were drinking less. More recently, a Nanos Research poll received reports of increased alcohol consumption from 25 per cent of Canadians between the ages of 35 and 54, and 21 per cent of those aged 18 to 34.

Great.

I guess no one is aware of the fact that it weakens the immune system, when you may need it most.

Drink Away!

#121 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.16.20 at 7:02 pm

Brad Lamb’s post was great. Too bad it ill fall on deaf ears. The fear has been stoked and unless men say enough it won’t be stopped.

#122 Madcat on 04.16.20 at 7:04 pm

Tried to find a few people to work for me for a few weeks… Most of them said no because they didn’t want to mess up collecting their free money…

#123 Well said Brad on 04.16.20 at 7:05 pm

I read it twice Brad!
Well said and thanks Garth for allowing a long post.

Actually many of my friends and I discuss the same things
We heard that 18 percent of people on cruise ships tested positive and no symptoms.
Another study I forget where showed 50 percent tested positive no symptoms.

Yes something is very wrong with the numbers produced in Canada.
Hopefully on Friday Dr. Bonnie Henry is giving us better information for BC
Yes send everyone back to work with masks and social distancing end this economic madness.
Cheers.

#124 Re-Cowtown on 04.16.20 at 7:05 pm

It boggles the mind that the Realtors can state that the housing market will be unaffected and not go to jail.

Then again, T2 can tell us all that the budget will balance itself and he isn’t in jail.

I detect a pattern here.

#125 auskirby604 on 04.16.20 at 7:05 pm

DELETED

#126 Flop... on 04.16.20 at 7:09 pm

Garth always said if he formed government anywhere, to thank me for my service to this blog, he had earmarked me as Minister For Middle Class Stupidity…

M45BC

#127 RevCan on 04.16.20 at 7:10 pm

#2 Frustrated

“My Daughter is pregnant she works at a big hospital was informed by her nanny two days ago she was quitting and going to collect C.E.R.B.”

Your daughter’s nanny is in for a big surprise. You are not eligible for CERB if you voluntarily leave your job. However I would advise to let her leave and hire someone more loyal. Also you don’t want someone with those sorts of morals around your grandchildren.

Also I hope your daughter’s nanny was paying her taxes in 2019. If not there won’t be a case for CERB as we will have no evidence she had an income. But let her leave anyway for the above mentioned reasons.

#128 David Pylyp on 04.16.20 at 7:13 pm

The the price reductions in Toronto ; The five stages of grief, postulates a series of emotions experienced by homeowners who may experience their first loss of equity. People will first react with denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally acceptance.

Last time the bounce took 5 years. Will you hang on?

David Pylyp
http://HouseValuesToronto.ca.

#129 Owe Canada on 04.16.20 at 7:14 pm

#77 the Jaguar – Thank you for posting Andrew Mellon’s full quote on this matter. I did not realize until I read your post that my post did not include the following:

People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, …

https://www.businessinsider.com/no-silver-lining-to-the-great-recession-2014-9

#130 Who left the barn door open? on 04.16.20 at 7:19 pm

#16 Leftover on 04.16.20 at 3:23 pm
There’s no stopping taxation of capital gains on principal residences now; as Garth says it’s the largest pool of untaxed wealth in Canada.

—————-

What capital gains? As always, the government is a day late and a dollar short.

I’d be ok if they taxed capital gains on primary residences if you could also deduct mortgage interest as is the case in the US. But my guess is that balances out in the long run, so no net gain.

And we already have property taxes.

#131 not 1st on 04.16.20 at 7:25 pm

Dow futures rip 800 points higher amid report Gilead drug showing effectiveness treating coronavirus

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

#132 Felix on 04.16.20 at 7:25 pm

And the canine in the foreground is about 2x more intelligent than the one in the background.

#133 Amral Khan on 04.16.20 at 7:28 pm

What are the odds that retail sales tax might go up 1% to help the government recover some money

#134 cristian on 04.16.20 at 7:30 pm

In my opinion not property tax will be the first one to go up. I think the GST will go up a lot first .. incme tax .. property tax will follow

#135 TurnerNation on 04.16.20 at 7:31 pm

In terms of my take that private property ownership will one day become illegal (the State will provide) I don’t think they will outright do this.
No the devil will be in the details. (As with the t3rr0r scares post 9/11, this current scare will be rolled out whenever change is a requirement).

How about this:
– In order to buy a house you will require the Mark, that is a credit score of at least xxx. All others will be denied. The current banking/credit/housing rout will drop many.
– Buying or selling will incur even more taxation levels.
– Only those in essential industries will qualify for full financing (remember, they will roll out this current crisis off/on over a long period. Recall the many years of the T3rr0r Colored Alert levels?
– HELOC and LTV values will be changed, greatly; not much room for buying of spec properties.
Speaking of, banks might require a huge downpayment of xx on those.
– All this and interest rates have not yet risen…just imagine how low your qualifying amount could fall.

At some point more and more people will be pushed into life-long renting. Why not. Pay your rent sometimes, especially when they roll out this crisis again.
– Another reason not to own spec or rental properties.

#136 islander on 04.16.20 at 7:32 pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_a_Mouse

“But, Mousie, thou art no thy-lane,
In proving foresight may be vain;
The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,
For promis’d joy!

Still thou art blest, compar’d wi’ me
The present only toucheth thee:
But, Och! I backward cast my e’e.
On prospects drear!
An’ forward, tho’ I canna see,
I guess an’ fear!”

Click link for full poem by Burns (1785) with English ‘translation’.

#137 butter upon bacon on 04.16.20 at 7:36 pm

#100 David R McDonald on 04.16.20 at 6:29 pm
#65 Trojan House on 04.16.20 at 4:58 pm

Russell Napier and Lacy Hunt talk a lot about the risk of deflation. According to them the stage has been set.

Russell Napier on why periods of excessively valued equities occur:

“Investors believe in a combination which has never been delivered. And what is that combination? They believe that growth, by growth I mean dividend/earning growth. They believe that growth can remain high and interest rates can remain low. That’s all you have to believe in, and you can believe in an incredibly high valuation for equities…..we have never actually produced that combination of growth and steady long term low interest rates.”

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.20 at 7:37 pm

@#85 binky barnes
“This country–that was once the bright shining light on the hill–is toast.”
++++

Thankfully Britain showed us the way downhill so we didnt make the same mistakes… :)

#139 Dj on 04.16.20 at 7:40 pm

The cure is to limit public service to 8 years in a lifetime for most of professions. As I already mentioned, my book about it is published and I will offer GT a free copy if interested…

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.20 at 7:45 pm

@#98 Ferengi Rowlandson

“.Remember humans all safety and glory is fleeting….”

++++

Are you quoting Rules of Acquisition now?

#141 Tim123 on 04.16.20 at 7:49 pm

I have to agree that housing prices are going down. The question of how much will largely depend on how long this social distancing goes on. One thing about all of the AirBnB rentals that are now going to hit the rental market, is that I cannot see why people would move right now to a new apartment or condo. I mean people do not have to pay for their rent right now so why leave your apartment when its free. For the people with money to rent a condo, why would they do this during the middle of a coronavirus pandemic. I guess we will see how many people were investors who bought houses to rent out were highly leveraged. This is a trade that most people never in their wildest dreams could have seen real estate going down in prices. The numbers I have seen in the US there are around 31% of renters who did not pay their rent in April. Canada should be similar. I think May will have an even higher number of renters not paying their rent because there really are not many consequences to not paying rent when there are so many people doing it.
ReMax and Royal Lepage are both trying to pump up real estate and take advantage of people who will believe them, that real estate can never go down.
Anyways, it is a lesson that many people will learn and realize that real estate can go down like many other investments.

#142 Smoking Man on 04.16.20 at 7:49 pm

Jacksonville will open it’s Beaches tomorrow…

The recovery begins.

#143 cristian on 04.16.20 at 7:50 pm

Me again ..LOL .. there is no testing .. my friend a firefighter .. got fever 38C … called his chief .. he was told not to come and go for testing .. went to East York General covid testing … they told him no testing he does not fit the criteria … finally they make him appointment .. doctor says he does not have all symptoms … he begs to be tested .. noooo .. he asked for a paper to show his chief that he went for testing to no available … finally he got tested … Positive result online in 2 days … he felt nothing .. was positive ..quaratined for 14 days with whole family wife and 3 kids from 10 to 16 years old .. end of story .. People with preexisting conditions stay inside for now .. it is very very dangerous for some people

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.20 at 7:52 pm

@#126 Flop
“Minister For Middle Class Stupidity…”

++++
Please let us know if you will occupy the same office of the Former Minister of Middle Class Prosperity Pablum Spooning…… or something like that……check the closets, there should be lots of pink T-shirts you can use as rags when you create CERB make work projects to wipe off the dangerously slippery Rainbow coloured paint on all the cross walks in Canada.

#145 Flop... on 04.16.20 at 7:52 pm

Who is the most nervous person in Nova Scotia about job security at the moment out of these three?

The mayor of Halifax?

The mayor of Lunenburg?

The Premier of Nova Scotia…

M45BC

#146 Gilead on 04.16.20 at 7:56 pm

#5 Drill Baby Drill on 04.16.20 at 3:07 pm. Your wish has been granted.

#147 Drill Baby Drill on 04.16.20 at 7:59 pm

And here we thought we were already in tax hell. Wait until the next few budgets by whichever politoco happens to be in power. Hey cheer up there are 3 optional paths forward we can take 1) Increase taxes by 40% 2) Inflate the hell out of our currency (see #1) 3) Join the USA

#148 Jager on 04.16.20 at 7:59 pm

The problem

The GFC2 crisis will result in the biggest debt and asset bubbles ever blown by central banks and governments (GFC1 + GFC2 bubbles combined).

No one disputes this. (Yes, stock markets are still highly inflated. Even more so today with shrinking GDP).

So our childrens children will still be paying for this debt. Right?

Wrong…

The above assumption presupposes that central banks can hold interest rates under two or three percent (zero is better) for much of this “generational” duration.

Do you believe that possible?

When central banks lose control there will only be two options (notwithstanding a soon coming technological revolution – it is possible).

1. Debt Jubilee

Or

2. War

The debt holders* would much rather begin a war than lose much of their wealth and power.

* Debt is an asset to the lender and a liability to the borrower.

You decide gentle reader.

#149 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.20 at 8:00 pm

@#133 U Kahn’t be serious
“What are the odds that retail sales tax might go up 1% to help the government recover some money”

++++

Errrr.
I’d say we’ll be damn lucky if the Federal Liberal govt doesnt raise the GST to 10% as an “emergency, temporary” measure……Kinda like when World War One ended and they introduced “Income tax” as a temporary measure to pay for it…….

But then the Provincial trough snuffling Hogs will run squealing towards the taxpayers to rip a pound of flesh out of our still twitching carcasses.
Not to be outdone by the municipalities ( you know, the ones that are “broke” one month after this all started?) That will desperately need cash to pay their retired govt workers ( garbage men, By-Law officers, Parks and Rec rink rats)their well deserved pensions……

Stay tuned Mr Kahn ….If you have any money……the tax man is coming for YOU !

#150 Lost...but not leased on 04.16.20 at 8:14 pm

#99 Nonplused on 04.16.20 at 6:28 pm
I’m surprised the number of people who don’t want to go back to work isn’t much higher. Most people alive today weren’t around for the Spanish flu so I think the effects of all the shut businesses, social distancing, self isolation, daily death counts, etc. on the psyche has probably been far reaching. People will never return to “normal”.

If the Spanish flu serves as a good example of what to expect, if the measures are relaxed too quickly there will be another major outbreak and we’ll be right back where we started.

==============================

I posted a while back that the Spanish Flu was one of THE first bio – weapons created at a US base, that has been documented. I can provide the link upon request.

(NOTE: The Gov’ts have traditionally used prisoners and military as guinea pigs.)

#151 Midnights on 04.16.20 at 8:17 pm

Everybody wants a million dollars
but nobody want to work…lol

#152 YouKnowWho on 04.16.20 at 8:20 pm

We know it is a house of cards.

But they have done EVERYTHING they could to prop it up.

You think they’ll stop now?

Wrinklies dying didn’t own RE. They’ve been kicked out into nursing homes already.

As unbelievable as it seems, these bankers and politicians will find a way to prop this gasbag. The alternative is worse.

Canadian RE is too big to fail. It is more Canadian than Hockey and Maple Sirup COMBINED!

#153 Tom on 04.16.20 at 8:20 pm

In the US, 89% of Democrats and 72% of Republicans also agree to continue social distancing measures regardless of economic impact. Seems that a lot of sane people care more about health than money

#154 YouKnowWho on 04.16.20 at 8:22 pm

You know why Real Estate cartels are feeling peppy?

Justin has a No-Limit spending Gift Card until Sept 30th.

He’ll use it for Canadian Real Estate. You’ll see.

#155 Brent Robarts on 04.16.20 at 8:32 pm

I believe in all the fundamentals you have outlined about the Canadian real estate, but the industry now has a formidable ally in addition to all levels of government, that is the BOC. You can’t win against the people who can legally print money.

#156 Genesis II on 04.16.20 at 8:33 pm

Someone with a sense of humour posted this on a forum I sometimes use:

HERE ARE THE OFFICIAL CORONAVIRUS GUIDELINES:

1. Basically, you can’t leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can.
2. Masks are useless, but maybe you have to wear one, it can save you, it is useless, but maybe it is mandatory as well.
3. Stores are closed, except those that are open.
4. You should not go to hospitals unless you have to go there. Same applies to doctors, you should only go there in case of emergency, provided you are not too sick.
5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster.
6. Gloves won’t help, but they can still help.
7. Everyone needs to stay HOME, but it’s important to GO OUT.
8. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarket, but there are many things missing when you go there in the evening, but not in the morning. Sometimes.
9. The virus has no effect on children except those it affects.
10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…
11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms. Oh, my..
12. In order not to get sick, you have to eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand and it’s better not to go out, well, but no…
13. It’s better to get some fresh air, but you get looked at very wrong when you get some fresh air, and most importantly, you don’t go to parks or walk. But don’t sit down, except that you can do that now if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant (but not too old).
14. You can’t go to retirement homes, but you have to take care of the elderly and bring food and medication.
15. If you are sick, you can’t go out, but you can go to the pharmacy.
16. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn’t wear masks or gloves. But you have to have your groceries decontaminated outside for 3 hours. Pizza too?
17. Every disturbing article or disturbing interview starts with “I don’t want to trigger panic, but…”
18. You can’t see your older mother or grandmother, but you can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver.
19. You can walk around with a friend but not with your family if they don’t live under the same roof.
20. You are safe if you maintain the appropriate social distance, but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.
21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours, no, four, no, six, no, we didn’t say hours, maybe days? But it takes a damp environment. Oh no, not necessarily.
22. The virus stays in the air – well no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room, in one hour a sick person can infect ten, so if it falls, all our children were already infected at school before it was closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, however in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, which, studies show, the virus can travel further, maybe.
23. We count the number of deaths but we don’t know how many people are infected as we have only tested so far those who were “almost dead” to find out if that’s what they will die of…
24. We have no treatment, except that there may be one that apparently is not dangerous unless you take too much (which is the case with all medications).
25. We should stay locked up until the virus disappears, but it will only disappear if we achieve collective immunity, so when it circulates… but we must no longer be locked up for that?’,

thanks Lisa MacPherson

#157 Steven Nicolle on 04.16.20 at 8:33 pm

With the Leger Poll it shows that Universal Basic Income is not far behind. Give each adult enough money to spend boosting the economy but not enough for them to sit on their you know what. Say $1500 a month. Then have them work for the rest. This will happen because like you say after this most people will be either jobless, debt up to their ears or business closed. House values will drop even though you have some stupid realtor saying right now prices remain high. Will with credit tightening after this that house that has been on the market cause the owner still thinks it is 2017 will have to drop their price won’t they. Until there is a vaccine no one is going to be running to restaurants or bars etc. People here will not wear mask here like in Korea because we are a country of spoiled people. There enough said. People have their heads in the sand.

#158 renter in Surrey on 04.16.20 at 8:35 pm

For last 25-20 years ReMax and Royal LePage were right and fools waiting for RE to crash were wrong.

Even with current sky high unemployment rate 88% of all bank mortgages have not asked for deferrals, so they are fine.
It means that Canadian RE prices do not depends of local tax slaves.

I bet we will see higher RE prices in 2021 and after.

#159 T-Rev on 04.16.20 at 8:35 pm

When did we become such a bunch of pu**ies? I’ve been given the option to work from home, but I don’t, because it’s ridiculous and I get more done when I actually see people in person. Anecdotally, I’m seeing more folks in the office lately, properly distancing and being safe, and the growing chorus is that now we have seen with our own eyes the (extremely low) risk this loses to healthy working age populations it’s time to get back to work.

Keep the wrinklies in isolation, put on a homemade mask, wash your hands, stay 6’ part when practical but don’t panic when you can’t, space the restaurants seats out, keep the rec centres, nightclubs, and sports arenas closed, continue to limit family gathering frequency and size, put on your big boy pants, and lets get back to work. Yeesh.

#160 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 04.16.20 at 8:36 pm

My “once a week” outing for LCBO and groceries was highlighted by a brisk wind and late April snow shower but I did get a parking slot right in front of the liquor store. God blesses his little sparrows as we are reminded daily from our virtue signaling Capitain on CBC at lunch time. The line-up for booze was civilized and only about ten god-fearing six foot spaced respectful comrades. At the grocery store wierd..what no line-up. But wait the drama unfolds. What’s a grocery store without a security guard (Americans hire them for theft but in Canada we hire them for “germs”) said guard had no line-up but was about to start one with me but I “meowed loudly” and called her “queen” and I got in. NOt so fast (two paces later) as another “guard” emptied my hands of my previously virtuous recyclable bags. Finally in the store and following the “arrows” until I got to the last line where I see all these people lining up to pay and there is a screaming voice “CASH ONE”. Needless to say all the cashes are open but there is a line-up as we are not allowed to interupt or disturb the cashiers as they wipe their spaces and “ruminate on the cleansiness”.

#161 Alex Allardyce on 04.16.20 at 8:41 pm

Very good post today.
Thanks Again for the insight.

#162 Joseph R. on 04.16.20 at 8:47 pm

Link to the latest (April 14, 2020) Leger poll:

https://leger360.com/surveys/concerns-about-covid-19-april-14-2020/

it was conducted using Americans (N=1,012) and Canadians N=1,508)

Some Takeaways:

19% of the population applied for the CERB (about 740,000 out of 37 million)

Maritimers are the biggest Snitch in Canada.

65% of Canadians are worried about the American response to the Coronavirus. 53% of Americans don’t know if Canada exists.

62% of Canadians are afraid of contracting it.

13% of Canadians and 19% of Americans have a relative or acquaintance diagnosed with the COVID-19 virus.

56% of Canadians believe the worst is yet to come. 37% of Americans only think so.

Manitobans are the least to like their Premier’s Response to the pandemic.

35% of Canadians had their income negatively impacted (temporary or permanently).

#163 Ontario Ollie on 04.16.20 at 8:50 pm

#19 Alberta Ed on 04.16.20 at 3:27 pm

“The Trudeau Liberals are already considering taxing capital gains on homes. Why else would Canada Revenue require home sale information in your tax return?”

The report of your home sale is to make sure it is a principal residence. If it is not, you will pay capital gains tax on it.

#164 Joseph R. on 04.16.20 at 8:53 pm

* 7,030,000 out of 37 million.

#165 John in Mtl on 04.16.20 at 8:57 pm

“… But house prices will be higher.

At least we still have a sense of humour.” – Garth

Love *your* sense of humour, Garth

#166 Rural Rick on 04.16.20 at 8:57 pm

After reading the previous comments I am reassured that our government is following the guidance of highly qualified public health officials rather than the opinions expressed by the blog dogs.

#167 Nonplused on 04.16.20 at 9:01 pm

#139 Dj on 04.16.20 at 7:40 pm
The cure is to limit public service to 8 years in a lifetime for most of professions. As I already mentioned, my book about it is published and I will offer GT a free copy if interested…

———————-

So, the engineers that oversee road construction for the city or province can only look forward to 8 years of employment after 4 years of additional education?

Doctors can only work 8 years after nearly that long in school?

Teachers as well 4 years of education to work 8?

What about garbage collectors?

I don’t think Garth will be interested in your book and I certainly am not either. The 50% is alive and with us! And now they are writing books!

#168 Decent Majority on 04.16.20 at 9:03 pm

#98. Finally, a Ferengi. You got that right Ferengi. These Canadianslugs are feeling comfortable and safe. Mama government is going to take care of them. MSM tells them so. Except at some point they are going to get bit. The only unknown is from what direction the teeth are going to come from. Who will they blame then?

#169 Julie on 04.16.20 at 9:13 pm

“Unprecedented economic destruction. People in no hurry to work. An historic debt crisis. Six million on the dole. But house prices will be higher.”

House prices sky rocketed after 2009 due to lower mortgage rates and a weaker dollar, Garth, you are forgetting that. It happened once, it could happen again.

#170 Alan Greenspan on 04.16.20 at 9:13 pm

#60 JacqueShellacque on 04.16.20 at 4:44 pm
.
“However Nassim Taleb (author of ‘Black Swan’, one of the partners of Universa, along with his protege Mark Spitznagel) believes that our financial markets are built using inappropriate risk models, and that the actual amount of risk is potentially catastrophic…”

The financial markets don’t need to be built on appropriate risk models because the kind folks at the Federal Reserve will support the financial markets when they implode. They have been doing this for the past 40 years and aren’t going to stop any time soon. Former Federal Reserve head honcho, Ben Bernanke is now gainfully employed at Citadel, a hedge fund. Yes, a hedge fund. Think they have an inside track to the Federal Reserve? You bet they do… The Fed is buying up everything and anything in the financial markets. Inappropriate risk models mean nothing. When they blow up, the fed will step in and pump in money. Check out some of the crap they are backstopping..

https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/federal-reserve-s-high-yield-etf-buying-defies-explanation

#171 yvr_lurker on 04.16.20 at 9:15 pm

Dow futures rally 700 points after report says Gilead drug showing effectiveness against coronavirus

———————

Holly shit, I did not realize that I was a two-bit actor in the Handmaid’s Tale by Margaret Atwood. With the lockdown, and city workers giving out fines for those violating social distances, and now with Gilead sciences coming to the supposed rescue, I wish I could turn the remote off and get to another channel. (for those who do not read books, you will have no idea what I am talking about).

#172 Lee on 04.16.20 at 9:18 pm

#131,

I think it’s mostly because Trump is setting forth a game plan for reopening the economy. That’s what’s moving futures.

#173 Alan Greenspan on 04.16.20 at 9:20 pm

#64 Iconoclast on 04.16.20 at 4:57 pm

“At this point, the debt no longer matters.
Nobody can rationally argue that it will ever be repaid.
Or even that it could be repaid, or should be repaid.
The fuse is lit on the destruction of western currencies.
All of them.
My bet is that Italy defaults first. On everything.
Everyone else will follow.”

You need to follow your own train of thought. You stated that the debt no longer matters and then state Italy will default and everyone else will follow. The ECB will not let Italy default just like it didn’t let Greece default. It’s a money printing world and you don’t default when trillions can be produced at the click of a mouse…

Remember what you said at the start of your comment, the debt no longer matters…

#174 Paul on 04.16.20 at 9:25 pm

#147 Julie on 04.16.20 at 9:13 pm
“Unprecedented economic destruction. People in no hurry to work. An historic debt crisis. Six million on the dole. But house prices will be higher.”

House prices sky rocketed after 2009 due to lower mortgage rates and a weaker dollar, Garth, you are forgetting that. It happened once, it could happen again.
————————————————————————————————
Not to mention nothing down and 40 year amortization plus only needed a heartbeat to qualify.

#175 Harold the Homeowner on 04.16.20 at 9:29 pm

#130 Who left the barn door open? on 04.16.20 at 7:19 pm
#16 Leftover on 04.16.20 at 3:23 pm

There’s no stopping taxation of capital gains on principal residences now; as Garth says it’s the largest pool of untaxed wealth in Canada.

“And we already have property taxes.”
———————————————————-

You are correct in pointing this out. Last time I checked mine were about $1k a month. If that isn’t taxation, tell me what is…

#176 Ustabe on 04.16.20 at 9:30 pm

#149 Rural Rick on 04.16.20 at 8:57 pm

After reading the previous comments I am reassured that our government is following the guidance of highly qualified public health officials rather than the opinions expressed by the blog dogs.

Me too, Rick.

From the odious to the absurd, history will not be kind to quite a few of these folks’ opinions. Notice the silence on Trump’s fav drug? Ever since chloroquine started killing folks all on its own just as medical personal warned both Trump and Trump apologists are strangely silent.

#177 NFN_NLN on 04.16.20 at 9:33 pm

#142 Tom on 04.16.20 at 8:20 pm
In the US, 89% of Democrats and 72% of Republicans also agree to continue social distancing measures regardless of economic impact. Seems that a lot of sane people care more about health than money

You’re looking at an old report. I have the revised numbers for today; it’s 14% Democrats and 12% Republicans. Open your previous link to confirm.

#178 Andrew on 04.16.20 at 9:34 pm

Where’s Captain Uppa?!

#179 Alan Greenspan on 04.16.20 at 9:41 pm

#137 butter upon bacon on 04.16.20 at 7:36 pm
#100 David R McDonald on 04.16.20 at 6:29 pm
#65 Trojan House on 04.16.20 at 4:58 pm

“Russell Napier and Lacy Hunt talk a lot about the risk of deflation. According to them the stage has been set.
Russell Napier on why periods of excessively valued equities occur:

“Investors believe in a combination which has never been delivered. And what is that combination? They believe that growth, by growth I mean dividend/earning growth. They believe that growth can remain high and interest rates can remain low. That’s all you have to believe in, and you can believe in an incredibly high valuation for equities…..we have never actually produced that combination of growth and steady long term low interest rates.”
—————————————————————

The above folks don’t understand that rates are low, are even negative in parts of the world and markets have been stabilized and now are poised to surge. Check out the Dow as it rages ahead with trillions of Fed pumped money. This is the new normal folks. Mainstreet has Depression level unemployment and Wallstreet is roaring ahead. As the good folks on Wall Street say, “the Fed is in our bed.” You can’t lose when the Fed is in your bed…

#180 Homeowner Harold on 04.16.20 at 9:44 pm

#134 cristian on 04.16.20 at 7:30 pm

“In my opinion not property tax will be the first one to go up. I think the GST will go up a lot first .. incme tax .. property tax will follow”

Oh great! Looking forward to paying $2k a month in propery tax instead of $1k…

#181 PastThePeak on 04.16.20 at 9:45 pm

Given evidence many more people have contracted the virus than have sickened or been tested, the mortality rate is likely far lower. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++=

What “evidence” is that?

#182 bill on 04.16.20 at 9:49 pm

Dr Judy Mikovits says in a youtube interview that people with covid19 probably
had it injected into them. She thinks it was an ingredient in the flu vax for a few years. we’ll never know the truth

#183 Nonnoo Nicola on 04.16.20 at 9:52 pm

#178 Andrew on 04.16.20 at 9:34 pm

“Where’s Captain Uppa?!”

Guess he’s on a real downa…..

#184 45north on 04.16.20 at 9:54 pm

In Toronto half of all condo sales over the last decade have gone to speckers and amateur landlords. Yet 40% of those owners lose money every month and hang in just to secure capital gains – an illusion now.

Things are looking pretty grim for the condo market. The speckers and amateur landlords are gona dump them. The banks will go after their primary residences. Another thing, nobody’s gona want a condo after COVID-19. Elevators, work-out rooms, pools – nobody’s gona want them. That’s one advantage of Lunenburg – they are no condos. I mean nothing like the condos in downtown Toronto.

Almost 30% Canadians are on government benefits, including millions with no cash and all their net worth in property. It’s worth remembering the American market cratered when just 8% of homeowners got into financial difficulty. So if politicians and public sentiment keep workers from working for another two or three months, we need to seriously assess the risk in real estate.

I just watched Frances Donald, Economist for Manulife. She said the Canadian economy is far more vulnerable than the US. In 2008 the US had its deleveraging. Canada never did. Canadians are highly levered, they have lots of debt.

This is the great reset.

#185 Alan Greenspan on 04.16.20 at 9:54 pm

#172 Lee on 04.16.20 at 9:18 pm
#131,

“I think it’s mostly because Trump is setting forth a game plan for reopening the economy. That’s what’s moving futures.”

That a the trillions the Fed has pumped into the markets…

#186 IHCTD9 on 04.16.20 at 10:00 pm

#15 Attrition on 04.16.20 at 3:22 pm

Garth, by now you must be tempted to admit: there is no ‘troubled future’ for real estate in Canada. They won’t ever let it fail.

Population increasing.
300,000 immigrants a year and growing.
Vast proportion of the economy dependent on it.
Governments eager to print and borrow to keep it going.

Why would a little invisible virus stop it?
———

The government is beyond broke. The urban housing bubble will last as long as the feds can resist taxing RE capital gains. Capital gains is pretty much all urban real estates’ got for profit, renting it out has come up short for years. If ever the feds could slide thru a motion to tax RE gains without causing a riot, now would be the time.

Double edged sword of course, but the promise would get more votes now than ever before for any ambitious politician willing to worry about the consequences of his promises later.

If RE CG’s get taxed, that’s it. Hundreds of thousands of new Canadians with the 30-40 grand they brought with them won’t fix it (never could).

What’s the government gonna do – put income taxes up 20%? RE CG tax is the last low hanging fruit that can make a difference. It’s only a matter of time, and we can give Trudeau our thanks when it does (no matter who is in office at the time).

#187 Alan Greenspan on 04.16.20 at 10:00 pm

#170 Alan Greenspan on 04.16.20 at 9:13 pm
#60 JacqueShellacque on 04.16.20 at 4:44 pm
.
“However Nassim Taleb (author of ‘Black Swan’, one of the partners of Universa, along with his protege Mark Spitznagel) believes that our financial markets are built using inappropriate risk models, and that the actual amount of risk is potentially catastrophic…”

Taleb and the Spitzer need to ask why when LTCM, which was run by Nobel Laureate quants blew up because of inappropriate risk models, I, the great Alan Greenspan rescued them and all turned out well. Wall Street doesn’t give a damn about risk models when the Fed is in your bed and will bail you out. Think in terms of a degenerate gambler who doesn’t give a crap about his bets being risky when at the end of the day, his billionaire daddy will cover his losses and give him fresh money for new bets…

https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/yes-bank-rescue-echoes-of-the-1998-ltcm-bailout

#188 Alan Greenspan on 04.16.20 at 10:07 pm

#171 yvr_lurker on 04.16.20 at 9:15 pm

“Dow futures rally 700 points after report says Gilead drug showing effectiveness against coronavirus
———————
Holly shit, I did not realize that I was a two-bit actor in the Handmaid’s Tale by Margaret Atwood.”

Actually you are a two bit actor in the great money printing game of the Federal Reserve. And to boot, it’s not a work of fiction by Margaret Atwood. It is real. As Mark Twain correctly stated, “truth is stranger than fiction…”

#189 Barb on 04.16.20 at 10:09 pm

Any bets babysitting a 5 year old until September will kill me long before a virus?

Odds?

#190 45north on 04.16.20 at 10:10 pm

The truth and mull over thoughts

how can they tax house gains if the housing market has a major pull back?

– make a speech,

– pass legislation

– create an office to administer the tax

– collect the tax

– borrow the money to cover the difference

#191 not 1st on 04.16.20 at 10:16 pm

#176 Ustabe on 04.16.20 at 9:30 pm
—-

Didn’t you notice as soon as Trump pointed out a 60 yr old drug might be a potential treatment, well big pharma went into overdrive and now there are new drugs coming out the ying yang, vaccines months off instead of 2 years.

Turns out it doesn’t take 10 yrs and a billion dollars to make some treatments if threatened by a generic drug costing 10c a day.

#192 Wait There on 04.16.20 at 10:17 pm

“FLATTENING THE CURVE”

Somewhere that term got lost in translation when 50% of the population thinks that this shutdown was to wait out the virus or wait until there is a vaccine.

IT NEVER WAS ABOUT THAT. Yet the press and media and everyone kept saying stay safe stay safe. Our PM kept pushing that meme as well. This is what we get now and we will pay a dear price for a long time. People are shell shocked. Just like the mask situation, they dug a hole so deep for themselves that when it was apparent that the mask advice was wrong they quietly relented.

The same thing is happening about flattening the curve. The press and media and leaders have dug themselves a hole they will find hard to climb out now. Reality will bite hard.

So you would have expected the WHO to tell us of asymptomatic transmissions. Hell the informed knew that the majority of transmissions of COVID were asymptomatic at least three weeks ago if they were keeping up with research…..up to 86% was one study in Europe.
So now we get this
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt/coronavirus-clue-most-cases-aboard-u-s-aircraft-carrier-are-symptom-free-idUSKCN21Y2GB

#193 Cognitive Dissonance on 04.16.20 at 10:17 pm

It’s not just realtors that are delusional.

https://www.ccn.com/warren-buffett-is-quietly-calling-the-stock-markets-bluff/

Meh, but what does Buffett know?

#194 Lost...but not leased on 04.16.20 at 10:19 pm

Someone posted earlier re: DB … civil servants and they will be just fine???

Actually, I DARE the Gov’t to maintain the status quo re: aforementioned aka can’t get blood out of a stone MEETS civil unrest.

The DB unwind has been going on in USA for years and will migrate North.

#195 John in Mtl on 04.16.20 at 10:23 pm

#15 Attrition on 04.16.20 at 3:22 pm

Fall could be insane for RE (at least in the decent parts of the country to live in–not the 90% of the country that’s frozen, windswept, flat, depressing, empty, landlocked, hot, humid, boring, or francaphone…).

I for one am very glad to live in Quebec. Yep, not perfect by any means but you know what? I’m also happy that few want to live here, for it keeps the place sane and affordable, unlike TO (the BPOE, ya, sure…) or Van. Oh, its soooo hard to learn to speak french.

And as far as your comment on “decent parts of the country … francophone”, Va te faire cuire un oeuf bonhomme, h*stie de con. Du monde comme toi, on n’en veut pas”.

#196 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.16.20 at 10:24 pm

Who is Brad J . Lamb?
He sure likes to ravel on.
Hope he does not become a regular poster.

#197 Rotsaltz on 04.16.20 at 10:24 pm

I am lucky. I am ok financially and did not lose my job. I am not interested in sitting at home in my pjs and watching Netflix while I should be at work. I don’t believe anyone is interested in doing that. I want to go back to work and envy my nephew who is a mechanic and has worked through all of this. I believe working hard is associated with mental health. Not Netflix and doing nothing.

#198 A J on 04.16.20 at 10:25 pm

Nobody pumps out propaganda like the real estate sector.

#199 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.20 at 10:29 pm

@#171 yvr-lurker
“I did not realize that I was a two-bit actor in the Handmaid’s Tale by Margaret Atwood…… (for those who do not read books, you will have no idea what I am talking about)…..”
++++

Anyone within 200 miles of Toronto or within earshot of the CBC will have heard of Madge Attweird and her beloved dystopian “vision” of Canada’s future under a socialist Liberal govt.( in the not too distant future if the economy has its way…..)
Some of us just prefer to ignore Hogtown’s shrill, endless, Toronto-centric cheerleading for that creepy hack known as Madge Attweird.
But I digress.
Just be glad you still live at least 2000 miles outside the “zone of Handmaiden influence” where everyone follows Madge to her endless, meaningless Canadian Awards ceremonies and claps until their hands bleed.
Living in Lotusland and dodging the Zombies on Hastings dont seem that bad.

#200 YouKnowWho on 04.16.20 at 10:30 pm

You remember that Wall-E scene about Fitless Humans?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-kdRdzxdZQ

How accurate is that? You think there is no price for Amazon deliveries vs. going to the store and bringing it home? No price for food delivery? No price for all that screen time? Surprise! There is!

#201 Jack the Flipper on 04.16.20 at 10:30 pm

Crash !!!!!!! Haha haha, O Yeah, it’s here. Grab the popcorn. Finally, after 20 years of ZIRP and savers getting laughed at while crazy borrowing was called normal, it’s over, Kaput.

https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/canadian-real-estate-great-reckoning-covid-19

Not sorry I’m laughing. The egg on face of so many triple landlords is comical. cash is king baby.

Hahaha , good luck. Love that thought about civil service pension plans getting gutted. Love it. The smug get mugged. Reversion to the mean . Adam Smith baby. The business cycle is back. I own my place outright, don’t owe a dime. Invested in contract utilities paying dividends.

In the Black Plague time they wheeled a cart through the streets to take away the dead. In the modern age those guys are called bankruptcy trustees and repo men. Hahaha.

#202 YouKnowWho on 04.16.20 at 10:32 pm

Vaccine

I ask again.

Let’s say China comes up with a rushed vaccine – would you roll up your sleeve to get injected with this Chinese vaccine?

#203 PastThePeak on 04.16.20 at 10:33 pm

#289 Toronto_CA on 04.16.20 at 1:37 pm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
_________

21% fatality rate? Good God the number of people who are numerically illiterate is astounding me, and this is on a finance blog.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Apparently you are too dimwitted to follow a link and read for yourself. 21% based on outcomes, of confirmed (tested) cases.

God, with people as ignorant as you, Canada is in deep trouble…hopefully your job (if you have one) doesn’t involve you advising anyone…about anything…

#204 Robert Ash on 04.16.20 at 10:34 pm

Housing and Underfunded Defined Benefit Pensions, will be the biggest problems, going forward.

#205 John on 04.16.20 at 10:35 pm

Common cold is a Coronavirus so why haven’t they a vaccine for that?
I know why.

#206 IHCTD9 on 04.16.20 at 10:36 pm

Well, got the handout cash stuffed into the bank account. They deposited a grand more than they should have.

Sweet.

I wonder if they’ll catch it later?

I wonder how much more I’ll get that I never should have? I’ll keep y’all posted.

Am I the only one?

Right, not a chance in hell.

What a bloody mess.

#207 fishman on 04.16.20 at 10:43 pm

Most people I know applied for “lil potato’s” free money. So what? What are you a cop, worse, a rat? Because their too lazy to work? Are you nuts? They applied because its free money. Quit whining, dig down, lay the brown ones on the table. Nacht Geld. Get the job done NOW.This is a great time to get ahead of those silly enough to be Valiumized by the CBC. Later the pleasure of watching SJW’s with outstretched hands mewling, “but, but, I have victim status, please sir, more porridge.”

#208 Possible on 04.16.20 at 10:44 pm

#158 renter in Surrey on 04.16.20 at 8:35 pm
For last 25-20 years ReMax and Royal LePage were right and fools waiting for RE to crash were wrong.

Even with current sky high unemployment rate 88% of all bank mortgages have not asked for deferrals, so they are fine.
It means that Canadian RE prices do not depends of local tax slaves.

I bet we will see higher RE prices in 2021 and after.

————————————————–

Renter, I think you are right. People seem to be willing to sacrifice anything to buy a house and our governments and policy makers will bend to the pressure and do everything to enable them. The only thing that can bring down this pyramid is if one day people cannot pay. But this pandemic has made it clear that when people cannot pay it doesn’t matter. Prudence and saving for a rainy day are outdated concepts. The free market is an outdated concept. People have been trained to behave recklessly without even knowing it. The masses think they are doing the responsible thing by investing in their own home. So people will continue to dive into more and more debt. New programs will be formed to make extremely highly priced houses “affordable”. I wonder if we’ll see 40 year mortgages and then even 50 year mortgages become a thing at some point. Mortgage insurance on $3M houses, why not? Just get the taxpayer to back it. Government shared ownership? Sounds good, more taxpayer backing. Most people have zero concern about piling up future tax bills. Governments have to protect the taxpayer to remain solvent, and if the taxpayer is fully enslaved to the houseing market, then government has to protect the housing market. Stupid? Yes. Possible? I fear so.

#209 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.16.20 at 10:45 pm

Brad
Lamb.
Now I remember the condo King who had some weird ads way back.
Those were the days when we all made fun of realtors, called them realturds.
Good times.

#210 Mark Moretti on 04.16.20 at 10:46 pm

#179 Greenspan

“The above folks don’t understand that rates are low, are even negative in parts of the world and markets have been stabilized and now are poised to surge. Check out the Dow as it rages ahead with trillions of Fed pumped money. This is the new normal folks. Mainstreet has Depression level unemployment and Wallstreet is roaring ahead. As the good folks on Wall Street say, “the Fed is in our bed.” You can’t lose when the Fed is in your bed…”

——–

Right, and the same folks here so distraught about our collective future because regular folks took $2000 from the government and some of them didn’t need it think the scenario you outlined is great because the markets are up!

Hypocrites the whole lot. It’s all deficit spending. It’s all debt that will NEVER be paid back, and everyone here knows it.

#211 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.20 at 10:47 pm

@#143 cristian
“there is no testing….”

++++

Excellent comment!
Does ANYONE …..ANYWHERE in a major Canadian city know WHERE a “non emergency worker” (ie medical, fire, cop, whatever….) can get TESTED?

Any(non emerg) blog dogs been tested? Anywhere?

And then again…. if we can get tested…….

Whats the fricken point?

1 hour after your test (which results you may or may not get for at least several days).

You could become infected from another source……!
A pointless endeavour unless we want to know how far this virus has spread……or do we?

Seems odd the govt hasnt been testing everywhere to try and get ahead of this.
Possibly to avoid panic?

Ok, so no testing for the blog dogs and the great unwashed rabble that pay all the govt taxes….
Gotcha.

Isolate the elderly, the sick, etc. .
You know….the 1% that may die if they have underlying conditions like…….they’re old or sick before they got cv-19

And lets get back to fricken work!

Jayzus.
The paralysed, politically correct, team decision, share the blame crowd in charge have dropped the ball biiiiiiig time.

Kiss this economy bye bye for a decade.

#212 IHCTD9 on 04.16.20 at 10:49 pm

#181 PastThePeak on 04.16.20 at 9:45 pm
Given evidence many more people have contracted the virus than have sickened or been tested, the mortality rate is likely far lower. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++=

What “evidence” is that?

——

Many folks have tested positive for CV-19, yet are asymptomatic. You or I could be positive right now. How many of these? My guess is a lot.

Many folks who are sick as dogs, and show all the symptoms of being positive for CV-19 but are in no danger of dying, have not been tested (my Dad included). How many of these? I guess a lot.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn the official infection rate is only half of the actual, but we will never know because we are not going to test every single person on the planet.

#213 Stone on 04.16.20 at 10:51 pm

For all of you thinking Sweden was doing such a fine job regarding the virus, well, you’re stupid.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-death-toll-mounts-epidemiologists-urge-leaders-to-ignore-their-own-public-health-agency

#214 TurnerNation on 04.16.20 at 10:52 pm

Ooo I bet I know what’s coming next in this country. Paper ballots are dirty, we must use…Electronic Voting Machines.
With them there’s nothing to count. They do the counting for you. They do the counting for you. They do the counting for you. The count is pre-done. For you.
How to win 101.

#215 IHCTD9 on 04.16.20 at 10:56 pm

#178 Andrew on 04.16.20 at 9:34 pm
Where’s Captain Uppa?!

I got big rider’s nonna over for a beer. He offers the following message:

“He a no posta when da house she a go downa.”

#216 Sail Away on 04.16.20 at 11:24 pm

#99 Nonplused on 04.16.20 at 6:28 pm

I’m surprised the number of people who don’t want to go back to work isn’t much higher. Most people alive today weren’t around for the Spanish flu…

If the Spanish flu serves as a good example of what to expect, if the measures are relaxed too quickly there will be another major outbreak and we’ll be right back where we started.

I know the Alfred Newmans (what, me worry?) of the world think it is no big deal or some sort of conspiracy (the don’t remember the Spanish flu I guess). But I for one would want to see the death counts drop significantly before phasing things back in.

And people please please please stop pointing to the hospital utilization to say “see? No problem.” All that proves is that social distancing works as it did for the Spanish flu.

——————–

Comparing Covid to the Spanish flu is not a logical comparison.

Let me explain:

The SF was incredibly deadly and predominantly affected those in prime health. It only reached this level of danger after mutating from a more benign strain. A note here: this is absolutely the opposite direction most flu mutations take; there is far greater benefit to a virus in becoming less deadly to ensure greater propagation and longevity.

The last time a flu mutated into an exceptionally dangerous strain was over 100 years ago. Since then, there have been untold numbers of colds and flus, both unknown and more recently, known through epidemiology. The overwhelming majority, actually all, mutate to be less deadly and become endemic.

History gives us at least 100 years of lessening effect over time, with the Spanish flu being the outlier by presenting extreme danger before mutating to a less dangerous strain.

Covid 19 is not too dangerous now. It should logically become even less so. Anything different would be unprecedented.

It is almost certain that events which historically proceeded in the same direction 100% of the time will also proceed similarly now.

#217 Midnights on 04.16.20 at 11:25 pm

As they say there are 3 sides to a coin. Heads, tails, and the middle.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/04/dr-david-brownstein/fake-covid-19-death-numbers-and-there-still-is-good-news/

#218 Sail Away on 04.16.20 at 11:35 pm

There are no statistics worldwide that support Covid 19 presenting any undue risk to healthy people.

Biologists often see diseases weaken and kill old and immunocompromised animals. That’s normal.

The only thing abnormal is that humans no longer accept they are part of the natural world.

#219 Sail Away on 04.16.20 at 11:35 pm

There are no statistics worldwide that support Covid 19 presenting any undue risk to healthy people.

Biologists often see diseases weaken and kill old and immunocompromised animals. That’s normal.

The only thing abnormal is that humans no longer accept they are part of the natural world.

#220 Teacher on 04.16.20 at 11:41 pm

One good thing about all this home schooling is that a lot of parents are finding out that we weren’t shitting them; their kids are assholes.

#221 Lisa on 04.16.20 at 11:43 pm

Some facts from a Kelowna businessman

https://www.kelownanow.com/watercooler/news/news/COVID_19/Kelowna_businessman_creates_video_urging_province_to_get_back_to_work/?fbclid=IwAR1q-KHwm908AJFDR3aA4_wFmFE4kZkL8-p7HlD59dNEcVLhC9JkEpLVKq8#fs_85231

#222 Dj on 04.16.20 at 11:48 pm

#167

———————-

So, the engineers that oversee road construction for the city or province can only look forward to 8 years of employment after 4 years of additional education?

——————————————————-

So, some entitled should be public servants for life while others do not get a chance at all? Let’s give everybody a chance and see who is the best. There is a private sector as well, maybe they should try it as well instead of milking the system the entire life?

Doctors can only work 8 years after nearly that long in school?

——————————————————–

I said “The cure is to limit public service to 8 years in a lifetime for most of professions”, but you jumped to mention doctors. Jumping into conclusions without knowing facts…. not good…

Teachers as well 4 years of education to work 8?

——————————————————–

Poor teachers. We all know who and how get jobs in education. Those that can’t teach…

What about garbage collectors?

——————————————————–

Maybe a good fit for you.

I don’t think Garth will be interested in your book and I certainly am not either.

——————————————————–

I already offered you a garbage collector’s job. Do not be greedy…

The 50% is alive and with us! And now they are writing books!

———————————————————

Some are cut only to write comments and like posts on social media…

#223 Nonplused on 04.16.20 at 11:51 pm

#150 Lost…but not leased on 04.16.20 at 8:14 pm
#99 Nonplused on 04.16.20 at 6:28 pm

I posted a while back that the Spanish Flu was one of THE first bio – weapons created at a US base, that has been documented. I can provide the link upon request.

(NOTE: The Gov’ts have traditionally used prisoners and military as guinea pigs.)

————————–

I am not sure how the US government was doing bio-engineering in 1917 but these days I am about to accept anything I read or see on the internet.

#224 Conspiracy Theory on 04.16.20 at 11:56 pm

What happened to all the “chemtrails”??? Is the US government so poorly funded that they can’t keep poisoning us without vacation travel?

#225 Blog Bunny on 04.16.20 at 11:56 pm

I wonder if I already got the virus. I am exposed to it every day but never had any symptoms. Can not wait to restart normal life. Give me freedom or give me death.

#226 S on 04.17.20 at 12:29 am

#37 NFN_NLN on 04.16.20 at 3:55 pm

” “Another 20% want to stay home…”

And this boys and girls, is why communism always fails. Always. ”

———————————————————-

In communist party run countries it was illegal, at least for men, to be unemployed. One would get his average national salary to afford his basic needs. But if he could not find a job the state would find him a placement… or prison. Who knows, looking at the above stat maybe they were on to something.

#227 Dr V on 04.17.20 at 12:32 am

151 Midnights – you might be surprised at the number of people who have a million dollars…..and still work.

#228 Retired at Just the Right Time on 04.17.20 at 1:27 am

“As a result the city’s mayor is talking bankruptcy. Imagine what they would do to civil service defined benefit pensions” – Actually, there will be no impact on pensions. In British Columbia civil servants and their employers (Government, cities, school boards etc.) each pay about 10% of gross salary to the Provincial Superannuation Commission. The Commission, in turn, passes the money to the British Columbia Investment Management Corporation who invests it. So, the money is two arms lengths away from the government. An actuarial review done about 2 years ago had it funded at over 100%. I wish that you, and the folks at the Fraser Institute, understood that many defined benefit pension plans are not “pay as you go” plans. They are fully funded.
Now, is it fair that civil servants get this plan when others don’t? That is a different question.

#229 Robert on 04.17.20 at 1:31 am

The next destination on this track is simply more of what drove the train along here in the first place; loose lending, money laundering (foreign and domestic), rampant speculation. The State and the Banks won’t let the Ponzi pop, they’ll simply add more players. Hmm.

#230 NFN_NLN on 04.17.20 at 2:02 am

#181 PastThePeak on 04.16.20 at 9:45 pm
Given evidence many more people have contracted the virus than have sickened or been tested, the mortality rate is likely far lower. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++=

What “evidence” is that?

https://www.lastampa.it/topnews/primo-piano/2020/04/02/news/coronavirus-castiglione-d-adda-e-un-caso-di-studio-il-70-dei-donatori-di-sangue-e-positivo-1.38666481

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread.html

#231 Toronto_CA on 04.17.20 at 4:31 am

#181 PastThePeak on 04.16.20 at 9:45 pm
Given evidence many more people have contracted the virus than have sickened or been tested, the mortality rate is likely far lower. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++=

What “evidence” is that?
_________________

Read this article on Iceland, where they’ve worked with the private sector to test 10% of the population.

The estimated fatality rate there is 0.0041% of the population, and they had no lockdowns just good testing/tracing/social distancing.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11381081/iceland-coronavirus-testing-reveals-less-deadly-half-population-asymptomatic/

When you actually test more than just the sick people in the hopsital (those reacting poorly to the illness rather than everyone) you get much worse results than testing a population. Too bad we are destroying the economy based on bad data.

#232 EE on 04.17.20 at 5:06 am

Thanks Garth and fellow posters for the rational perspective and the good jokes.

For #181: See Iceland’s random testing results.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/coronavirus-testing-iceland

#233 Gilead on 04.17.20 at 7:20 am

#205 John on 04.16.20 at 10:35 pm …Because a common cold wont kill you. Smarten up.

#234 Shagwagon on 04.17.20 at 7:32 am

Hmmmmm, hundreds of thousands, maybe in the low millions, of ‘investor condo’s’ in TO and Vanc bought on credit, remain unoccupied and unrentable due to the collapse in taxes, new rules against foreign ownership, those who might own an extra, corona unemployment and AirBB travel getting smoked. Its a tidal wave of bad news. Who’s going to pay the freight.

I read where some realtard wag bellowed out the ‘the government must pay’. Flipping condos to one another had become more than mining and energy combined. Who didn’t see that wouldn’t end well? Bail out the condo speckers? Brilliant idea.

They should form a political lobby, build a place of worship and make the REBs heads bishops and popes. Certainly was a laugh to read Brad Lambs desperate manifesto, OMG.

Its the end folks, its over and done. Baked. Unless, Trudeau coughs up a freebie for the poor real estate landlords. How many votes is that? I guess we’ll find out.

https://news.trust.org/item/20200413065535-edq5n/?utm_campaign=trending&utm_medium=trendingWebWidget&utm_source=detailPage&utm_content=link5

#235 Curious George on 04.17.20 at 7:56 am

#206 IHCTD9 on 04.16.20 at 10:36 pm

“Well, got the handout cash stuffed into the bank account. They deposited a grand more than they should have.”

How did you get it? Did you lose your job?

#236 Nonno Nicola on 04.17.20 at 8:07 am

DELETED

#237 BillyBob on 04.17.20 at 8:17 am

Anyone else wondering if Ponzius Pilate has an Italian ex-boyfriend or something? Seems awfully bitter and defensive about Italy. Doesn’t seem to realize it says more about him than the country he’s attacking.

The place has been through utter hell and I’d still take their food, wine, women, cars, clothes, culture, history and music over their Canadian counterparts in a millisecond.

Viva l’Italia and godspeed with the attempts to re-open.

#238 maxx on 04.17.20 at 8:19 am

There is so little traction left in this economy.

Money has little value now, other than to plug endless emergencies and the effectiveness of that device is eroding, ’cause CBs have sanded interest rates to near-zero.

I completely agree that we need to yank the stuffing out of some industries which essentially produce nothing other than the gains of predation and pure, unadulterated greed. That’s already happening. Housing is the first one that springs to mind. No single industry should EVER hijack a national economy.

A huge casualty of much of the cash some are availing themselves to is that it will seriously harden many Canucklehead’s tendency to sloth. I’ve seen so many at work in both public and private industry sit around playing solitaire (nearly all day), bend work around coffee and smoke breaks and spend gobs of time yakking on personal calls. It will be a bitch getting that lot out of inertia.

Welcome to the sweatpant economy.

Maybe we can export our debt!

#239 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.20 at 8:25 am

@#226 Retired govt worker…

“….understood that many defined benefit pension plans are not “pay as you go” plans. They are fully funded….

++++
No. They are just fully guaranteed by …..the taxpayers.

I’m watched many private sector union tradesmen (in the 2008 stock market aftermath) receive notice that their union pension funds were being cut….”due to unforeseen circumstances in the valuation of the pension plan….”

NEVER forget.
Public servant pensions are guaranteed because the City, the province or the the Feds are legally required to pay out those pensions…..and if those pensions are hit with the same stock market downturn?
If the market invested govt employee pensions drop lower than the promised (guaranteed) pension payouts?

No problem. Politicians know……
The tax payers are always there to “balance the books”.

Trouble is….the taxpayer is now broke, the govt is now broke, the stock market is whipsawing back and forth…..

I wouldnt be too smug about those “guaranteed pensions”…. not this time.

#240 LackofTesting on 04.17.20 at 8:37 am

“Does ANYONE …..ANYWHERE in a major Canadian city know WHERE a “non emergency worker” (ie medical, fire, cop, whatever….) can get TESTED?”

**********
Not even hospital staff are getting easily tested. A friend and his wife work at two different hospitals in Toronto. They both had a cough and body aches. They phoned work and told them of their symptoms. Both were told to go to work. When they showed up for work, they both failed the screen. Both of them were let in to work. This was 2 weeks ago.

#241 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.20 at 8:38 am

@#235 billybob
“The place has been through utter hell and I’d still take their food, wine, women, cars, clothes, culture, history ….”
++++

Egad!
You’d rather drive a Ferrari than a Chevy Acadian?
Traitor!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acadian_(automobile)

#242 YouKnowWho on 04.17.20 at 8:38 am

China says it doesn’t fudge numbers.

China says it doesn’t cover up anything.

Then today revised Wuhan death numbers by 50% and said the economy shrunk 6.8% in Q1. Shut down…6.8%.

Roll up your sleeve for that rushed Chinese magical vaccine! It will be OK. Don’t worry about it!

#243 Wrk.dover on 04.17.20 at 8:55 am

Another drug, invented just in the nick of time.

Reminds me of when there was a limp generation about to enter adulthood in ’98, so Viagra was developed to help them perform like previous generations do on their own.

#244 Little Rider on 04.17.20 at 8:55 am

#215 IHCTD9 on 04.16.20 at 10:56 pm
#178 Andrew on 04.16.20 at 9:34 pm
Where’s Captain Uppa?!

“I got big rider’s nonna over for a beer.”

You realize that a nonna is a grandmother…

#245 OK, Doomer on 04.17.20 at 8:59 am

The CBC is now instructing kids on how to counter their parents “conspiracy theories” that the Wuhan virus was made in a lab.

Nothing like our good ol’CBC being bought and paid for by the Chairman Mao. Next thing you know they’ll be carrying stories “Budgets balance themselves”.

#246 John in Mtl on 04.17.20 at 9:01 am

@ #202 YouKnowWho on 04.16.20 at 10:32 pm
“…would you roll up your sleeve to get injected with this Chinese vaccine?”

N.O. B.L.O.O.D.Y. W.A.Y. Especially from China.

And even more so from any pharma company that has made a “no liability” deal with the government. It’s just criminal. The deal should be made public knowledge. People should be in outrage and in the streets if anything like a fast-track +/- proven vaccine became mandatory.

#247 John in Mtl on 04.17.20 at 9:03 am

@ #218 Sail Away on 04.16.20 at 11:35 pm
“The only thing abnormal is that humans no longer accept they are part of the natural world.”

This. Totally agree with you, Sail Away.

#248 Re-Cowtown on 04.17.20 at 9:05 am

#238 LackofTesting on 04.17.20 at 8:37 am
“Does ANYONE …..ANYWHERE in a major Canadian city know WHERE a “non emergency worker” (ie medical, fire, cop, whatever….) can get TESTED?”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sweet Home Alberta. Got a cough or a runny nose? Go get tested. Edmonton, Calgary, Med Hat, GP.

Pick a city, any city. But be warned, it’s only good for this crisis, not the next one.

Too bad it won’t happen again because some foreign eco-activists killed the oilpatch and with it the $$$ to respond to a crisis. Thank Greta for that one. and good luck to you next time.

#249 Keen Reader on 04.17.20 at 9:09 am

@#195 John in Mtl on 04.16.20 at 10:23 pm

Merci John! Don’t set your bar too high, you seem good enough to be liked as is! Hopefully you do feel welcome and part of the group.

#250 Penny Henny on 04.17.20 at 9:14 am

#120 YouKnowWho on 04.16.20 at 7:01 pm

I guess no one is aware of the fact that it weakens the immune system, when you may need it most.

Drink Away!
///////////

Don’t mind if I do.
Although I typically wait until 4:30 in the afternoon. I find it’s good to have structure, you know some sort of schedule.

#251 Penny Henny on 04.17.20 at 9:15 am

Funny how my more obnoxious comments are made after that time.

#252 Smoking Man on 04.17.20 at 9:17 am

Dow futures set to explode to up side.

Where are all the traders here?
Are there any traders here?

#253 oh bouy on 04.17.20 at 9:22 am

Robert Reich
@RBReich

Thanks to a provision in the coronavirus stimulus package some of the wealthiest Americans could receive a $1.7 million tax break.

Meanwhile, American workers get a check for $1200 with Trump’s signature.

America has socialism for the rich, harsh capitalism for the rest.

#254 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.17.20 at 9:23 am

@#223 Rabid Rabbit
“I wonder if I already got the virus. I am exposed to it every day….”
+++

Stop licking doorknobs….

#255 Flop... on 04.17.20 at 9:41 am

Gonna rev my gas guzzler three extra times this morning in support of Alberta…

M45BC

#256 IHCTD9 on 04.17.20 at 9:47 am

#242 Little Rider on 04.17.20 at 8:55 am
#215 IHCTD9 on 04.16.20 at 10:56 pm
#178 Andrew on 04.16.20 at 9:34 pm
Where’s Captain Uppa?!

“I got big rider’s nonna over for a beer.”

You realize that a nonna is a grandmother…

Yep, I didn’t have big rider’s actual nonna over, I had “big rider’s nonna” himself over.

Actually, the whole post was all just bs concocted so I had an excuse to post some “italiadian”.

#257 IHCTD9 on 04.17.20 at 9:54 am

#233 Curious George on 04.17.20 at 7:56 am
#206 IHCTD9 on 04.16.20 at 10:36 pm

“Well, got the handout cash stuffed into the bank account. They deposited a grand more than they should have.”

How did you get it? Did you lose your job?

How else are you supposed to get it?

Just ask for it and they hand it over?

#258 Head Shaker on 04.17.20 at 9:56 am

The wreckage of the economy will have a name at some point to teach business and history students about how a canal of idiots and mercenaries teamed up to kill a country. I suggest “ The Trudeau/Butts Gambit”.

Now that assets are in the toilet, the mercenaries who continue to flood Canada with the very product that our Trudeau/Butts cabal has worked hard to kill, oil, are buying the same assets that Trudeau has killed with his destructive policies. How wonderfully Machiavellian.

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/after-wrecking-the-oil-market-rich-opec-states-are-picking-up-big-oil-stocks-and-other-assets

Canada likely won’t survive Trudeau/Butts, but the Saudi Arabians are going to do quite well.

#259 DM on 04.17.20 at 9:59 am

This rent subsidy is going to bring many landlords to the surface who never declared their rental income.

#260 PastThePeak on 04.17.20 at 10:04 am

#212 IHCTD9 on 04.16.20 at 10:49 pm
#228 NFN_NLN on 04.17.20 at 2:02 am
#229 Toronto_CA on 04.17.20 at 4:31 am

#181 PastThePeak on 04.16.20 at 9:45 pm
Given evidence many more people have contracted the virus than have sickened or been tested, the mortality rate is likely far lower. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

What “evidence” is that?

——————————————–
Thanks for the links

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11381081/iceland-coronavirus-testing-reveals-less-deadly-half-population-asymptomatic/

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread.html

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Guys, just to level set, my position is not that COVID-19 is the end of the world, people should panic, and the economy should be destroyed. I am 100% behind opening up as much as possible, and as quickly as possible. No reason that most retail can’t open up, in most Canadian communities, right now (with the right guidelines).

I am trying to point out the difference of “what people think” or what some expert “estimates”, from the data available.

There is indeed ample evidence, in multiple countries, that a large portion of those tested were asymptomatic or very mild. It was 30% in a China study (take that for what it is worth), 25% on Not 1st’s link, and almost 50% in the Iceland study. I have read a few others that are in that ballpark.

But – that is all captured in the official data, and from there the fatality rates (for those tested). As a reminder – case fatality rates are determined by cases with an “outcome” – not on the total case # when this is growing significantly each day.

Clearly, the solution is much more testing, for both infected today, and antibody testing, which will broaden the base and give a better view.

Are there asymptomatic / mild cases not captured – of course. How big? As many as were tested? Double? Triple? Pretty unknown (a “known, unknown” to quote Rumsfield).

From the Sun article: According to a report by three infectious disease specialists at Oxford University, Carl Heneghan, Jon Brassey, and Tom Jefferson, “there is not a single reliable study to determine the number of asymptotics.”

I do find it curious that the same people who question the impact of COVID-19, when there is clear data on overloaded healthcare services, CFR, serious complications for some…

…also pull out the “seasonal flu” annual deaths (completely modelled with no relation to testing or cause of death stats, and over stated by about 5-10x) as being the same, or perhaps worse.

#261 Jesse Livermore on 04.17.20 at 10:08 am

#250 Smoking Man on 04.17.20 at 9:17 am

“Dow futures set to explode to up side.
Where are all the traders here?
Are there any traders here?”

Of course the Dow is going uppa, uppa, uppa as the Big Rider’s nonno would say. The fed is pumping trillions into the markets. What else would they do???

#262 Dharma Bum on 04.17.20 at 10:16 am

#33 Stone

Actually, this has nothing to do with being scared. I think most people know a good thing when they see it. Also, they realize going in to work is a waste of time – you can use the best hours of the week for yourself, not your employer.
——————————————————————-

For sure.

Why choose to go back to work when you are being encouraged to stay home, and PAID to stay home by uncle Justin?

These dirtbags have never been happier. They dread the day the “all clear” signal is given. Then the free money stops and they have to get off their collective arses and go back to jobs they hate for less money than they were making before (because of the coming income tax increases and wage freezes).

#263 Sky on 04.17.20 at 10:25 am

@ yvr_lurker #171 :

Dow futures rally 700 points after report says Gilead drug showing effectiveness against coronavirus

———————

Holly shit, I did not realize that I was a two-bit actor in the Handmaid’s Tale by Margaret Atwood. With the lockdown, and city workers giving out fines for those violating social distances, and now with Gilead sciences coming to the supposed rescue, I wish I could turn the remote off and get to another channel. (for those who do not read books, you will have no idea what I am talking about).
****************

This has all the appearances of a Nasdaq tulip bulb rally. Because while the Gilead drug, remdesivir, looks promising, the clinical data has yet to be released. So far we’ve had nothing more than a leaked anecdotal hospital account.

Then there’s Moderna, who the US govt. just threw almost $500M at and is getting a 20% bump post announcement. Sweet, if you had that info PRE announcement. Those in charge of doling out the bucks would NEVER use that information for their own benefit would they? What with insider trading laws and all. HAHAHA.

Moderna is working on mRNA vaccines and has never brought a vaccine to completion or to market. Super secretive they are. Smoke and mirrors. This makes them the perfect candidate to grant half a billion to.

Cheer up though. Things are looking up. Waaaay up. Because we’re going to Mars. Elon Musk said so.

Elon’s just experiencing a few minor technical difficulties right now – like SpaceX failing to make it up to the International Space Station which is a whopping couple 100 miles up in space (the moon’s over 200,000 miles out). Boeing’s Starliner failed as well. They called the failure “off-nominal insertion”. Love the creative language.

Meanwhile, back in Handmaid’s World, as we breathlessly await the upcoming wonders and miracles of the technocracy, it would be swell if our overlords could figure out how to supply us with a few masks. My sewing skills are sadly sub par.

#264 Sean on 04.17.20 at 10:30 am

Good data on here for a more up to date look.

http://www.torontocondos.org/toronto-condo-market-update-1-month-since-state-of-emergency/

#265 Figure it Out on 04.17.20 at 10:35 am

Ferrari, but you have to listen to Italian pop, at a high enough volume that the engine doesn’t drown it out?
– or –
Acadian, and you can listen to anything you want (including that leak in the exhaust manifold).

It’d be a close-run thing, for me. Don’t @ me about Pavarotti or Corelli. The above are the choices, but you can have any colour pinstripe you want on the Acadian.

#266 Wrk.dover on 04.17.20 at 10:36 am

DELETED

#267 Sold Out on 04.17.20 at 10:43 am

#251 oh bouy on 04.17.20 at 9:22 am
Robert Reich
@RBReich

Thanks to a provision in the coronavirus stimulus package some of the wealthiest Americans could receive a $1.7 million tax break.

Meanwhile, American workers get a check for $1200 with Trump’s signature.

America has socialism for the rich, harsh capitalism for the rest.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I thought you had to be a porn star, or defense attorney, to get a cheque that’s been personally autographed by Trump.

#268 Brett in Calgary on 04.17.20 at 10:48 am

I work at AHS on the data side, we have 13 people in ICUs for coronavirus across the entire province. Nine are in Calgary. Most zones (i.e. Central, North) project to have 1-2 people in ICU for COVID in the next 7 days and trending down. All due respect to my colleagues and the emergency measures taken by AB, but this is not a pandemic.

#269 Ponzius Pilatius on 04.17.20 at 10:49 am

#253 Flop… on 04.17.20 at 9:41 am
Gonna rev my gas guzzler three extra times this morning in support of Alberta…

M45BC
—————-
In hope it is a glorious Lincoln Navigator.
Nothing else will do.

#270 Ejeff on 04.17.20 at 10:53 am

I believe this is exactly right. Until more random testing is done we cannot know the fatality rate of this virus nor how many people have already had it.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

#271 BillyBob on 04.17.20 at 10:55 am

A Ferrari engine IS music.

There’s nothing else when one opens up. Or Maserati. Or Lambo. Or…

I don’t expect the Tesla-drivers to get it.

#272 Lahdeedah on 04.17.20 at 10:58 am

#99 Nonplused on 04.16.20 at 6:28 pm

Totally agree.

There is a variety of thinking going on – magical thinking (Trump) and realist thinking. We need more of the latter.

#273 Sail Away on 04.17.20 at 11:00 am

#251 oh bouy on 04.17.20 at 9:22 am

Thanks to a provision in the coronavirus stimulus package some of the wealthiest Americans could receive a $1.7 million tax break.

Meanwhile, American workers get a check for $1200 with Trump’s signature.

America has socialism for the rich, harsh capitalism for the rest.

——————-

Not really. Companies employing workers can get tax breaks.

As to that: tax breaks are far better than stimulus cash since it does not incur debt on the country.

Here, the gov’t is subsidizing my firm $15k per month to keep people employed and giving us $10k for free. And talking about commercial rent assistance. Good thing I’m also the landlord, haha.

But… all that could have been done with tax break rather than deficit cash. Much better for the national debt. Even more better if the result was less government. But never will the gov relinquish taxes- I always get a kick ( in a sad way) from public budgets listing taxes as ‘revenue’. Need more revenue? Raise taxes, duh.

#274 Sail Away on 04.17.20 at 11:03 am

Correction to my last post: govvie is subsizing salary by $15k per week. $60k or so per month.

#275 Jay on 04.17.20 at 11:06 am

The prime minister says his only goal is to save lives. How noble, however not one mention about the mental health struggles of kids, currently being forced to isolate inside potentially abusive homes, with no communication with the outside world. And apparently its going to go on for “many more weeks”

Its happening, due to the fear of their parents. I let my kids play outside in our yard and take them for walks often, however they have many former school mates that have not seen outside of their own house for more than a month now, not gotten any exercise or social interaction and are really struggling. It is literally a form of torture, and no one seems to care.

We are sacrificing our societies youth to “save” the old.

#276 Sail Away on 04.17.20 at 11:12 am

#269 BillyBob on 04.17.20 at 10:55 am
A Ferrari engine IS music.

There’s nothing else when one opens up. Or Maserati. Or Lambo. Or…

I don’t expect the Tesla-drivers to get it.

———————-

I enjoy the sound of performance engines as well.

Generally in a steadily decreasing way behind me, haha.

#277 TurnerNation on 04.17.20 at 11:19 am

#184 45north not so likely. The condo market is all there is. With tightening credit regs and soaring property taxes houses will become even less do-able.
Where else will all the young people live and newcomers to the country if not in apartments and condos?

I can name dozens of people I know who are not paralysed with fear. Precautions yes.
If this means more room in gyms, elevators, stores and transit then I’m all for it. The normals will do fine. If people wish to self isolate forever and see their mental health retreat, well we’ll take care of them later in life.
A good future career might be as a mental health specialist or counsellor. For now the rest of us will live on.

#278 Sail away on 04.17.20 at 11:27 am

#261 Sky on 04.17.20 at 10:25 am

Elon’s just experiencing a few minor technical difficulties right now – like SpaceX failing to make it up to the International Space Station which is a whopping couple 100 miles up in space (the moon’s over 200,000 miles out).

———————

Why are you posting nonsense?

SpaceX has been delivering cargo to the ISS since 2011 and is completely on track for its first crew delivery this year.

Also, why does everyone hate on Elon? Tesla did indeed donate and deliver ventilators to California hospitals as promised, notwithstanding CNNs completely unjustified hatchet job.

What did anyone else do besides criticize?

#279 Brett in Calgary on 04.17.20 at 11:30 am

Interesting article suggesting possible COVID case fatality rate < 0.05% and an infectious rate many times that of the flu.

https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843b

#280 Don Guillermo on 04.17.20 at 11:30 am

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.20 at 3:39 pm
Well,
Lets see how many “For Sale” signs start popping up on the toys( Boats, bikes, quads, etc etc etc.) come June when the depth of this starts to sink in…….
I expect the banks will start repo’ing houses by Sept. then it will be an avalanche of Banks rushing in to be first to flog these dying horses
*****************************************
Might be a good time to vultch one of those supercars the indebted love to prance around Vancouver in.

#281 JonBoy on 04.17.20 at 11:32 am

#213 Stone on 04.16.20 at 10:51 pm
For all of you thinking Sweden was doing such a fine job regarding the virus, well, you’re stupid.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-as-swedens-death-toll-mounts-epidemiologists-urge-leaders-to-ignore-their-own-public-health-agency

—-

Anyone with a brain would anticipate Sweden having a higher death rate up front, as they’re basically saying “Let’s get it over with”. Deaths per capita (deaths per 1000 people, for instance) is what’s going to matter in the end, not how many you had for a given day, week or month. It’s the sum total of deaths, divided by the overall population, that will be the only fair metric. Whoever has the lowest percentage of their population die from COVID-19 will determine who did the right thing.

NO ONE believes that this thing will be wiped out in a month of lockdown (or two or three, for that matter), so we’re just kicking the can down the road while ruining our economy.

Sweden is saying, “We can’t stop it so let’s just be moderately responsible, maintain social distancing and proper hygiene, get it over with, and keep ourselves solvent in the meantime.”

Canada doesn’t have a plan, that much is obvious. Trudeau doesn’t have a sweet clue as to how to manage this situation except “DON’T DO ANYTHING WITH ANYONE!” (while heading to his cottage in another province). He’s screwed over the country and he’s still not done with the job…

#282 Sail away on 04.17.20 at 11:35 am

Re: Sky, SpaceX, ISS

Here’s a video, fool:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7ta71l

#283 not 1st on 04.17.20 at 11:38 am

The odds of a fairly quick rebound are fading fast now. We are looking at June and later for nay economy restart. No way these companies can carry dividends 3 quarters.

I was hopeful at first but our policy eggheads are taking the super cautious super expensive super destructive approach now.

Carrying this to June has now baked in structural dysfunction at all levels of our economy.

#284 Re-Cowtown on 04.17.20 at 11:41 am

Trudeau helping the oilpatch with $750 million to improve it’s carbon emissions is like Marie Antoinette handing out her favorite cake recipes.

We are ruled by a moron. Plain and simple.

#285 OK, Doomer on 04.17.20 at 11:45 am

#269 BillyBob on 04.17.20 at 10:55 am
A Ferrari engine IS music.

There’s nothing else when one opens up. Or Maserati. Or Lambo. Or…

I don’t expect the Tesla-drivers to get it.

____________________________________

I love the smell of burning lithium in the morning. It smells like…Carcinogens.

#286 Re-Cowtown on 04.17.20 at 11:51 am

Alberta needs to give Quebec a 50% stake in the oilsands. I guarantee that Trudeau will have a pipeline built to tidewater by lunch time.

#287 Figure it Out on 04.17.20 at 11:52 am

One of the Maseratis in my neighbourhood sounds completely ridiculous. Engine’s screaming away as he’s doing 45 in a 40km/h zone, like he was going through turn 1 at Imola.

Maybe he stole first gear out of a dump truck. Not all Italian pipe organs are created equal.

#288 Sail away on 04.17.20 at 12:02 pm

#270 Lahdeedah on 04.17.20 at 10:58 am
#99 Nonplused on 04.16.20 at 6:28 pm

Totally agree.

There is a variety of thinking going on – magical thinking (Trump) and realist thinking. We need more of the latter.

———————-

You got part of that right: there is a variety of thinking going on – realist thinking (Trump and Sweden and Iceland and Brazil- notice how the list is expanding?) and emotional reactionary thinking. We need more of the latter.

#289 BrianT on 04.17.20 at 12:03 pm

#274Sail-back in the day I had a Vette with side pipes-I did 12.5 at the dragstrip with it-anyway-you could hear that thing coming from a mile away-driving that car was pure pleasure.

#290 kc on 04.17.20 at 12:17 pm

273 Jay on 04.17.20 at 11:06 am

“however they have many former school mates that have not seen outside of their own house for more than a month now, ”

XXXXXXX

Talking to a family member who lives rural bc. two young teen girls who are house bound on a farm and sever cabin fever. been locked on property since spring break, with no interaction with school friends, barely any internet service where they are. The cabin fever is turning them into zombies.

Can just imagine what another couple months of this will do to them. No friends allowed to interact with them nor they allowed at friends places due to the fear of the “covid 19 you going to die” fears…..

cheers

#291 Re-Cowtown on 04.17.20 at 12:22 pm

T2 deserves utter scorn for using COVID to further his climate change political aims.

Gross. Disgusting. Immature. Myopic.

His actions are beneath contempt. He can take his $750 million and stuff it. Spend it on building a water slide from Sweden to Ottawa so Greta can stop by any time. Carbon free.

#292 Ronaldo on 04.17.20 at 12:24 pm

#219 Lisa on 04.16.20 at 11:43 pm
Some facts from a Kelowna businessman
————————————————————-
Thanks for the link Lisa. When will common sense prevail? They have seriously fumbled the ball. We will have a much greater crisis on our hands as a result.

#293 GAV on 04.17.20 at 12:25 pm

$1.7 billion for 5200 jobs in Alberta. And it has environmental requirements to justify it.

Bombardier got more.

Meanwhile, PM’s lakeside residence gets $8.9 M upgrade.

Time to warm up the Wexit referendum.

#294 Earth to Justin the Tone Deaf on 04.17.20 at 12:30 pm

Alberta doesn’t need or want your help. Just get the hell out of the way, follow the rules and make sure everyone else does too.

You’re just the referee. That’s all. Put the puck down and slowly back away.

#295 Dr V on 04.17.20 at 12:30 pm

237 fartz – nailed it.

#296 Don Guillermo on 04.17.20 at 12:32 pm

#224 S on 04.17.20 at 12:29 am
#37 NFN_NLN on 04.16.20 at 3:55 pm
” “Another 20% want to stay home…”
And this boys and girls, is why communism always fails. Always. ”
———————————————————-
In communist party run countries it was illegal, at least for men, to be unemployed. One would get his average national salary to afford his basic needs. But if he could not find a job the state would find him a placement… or prison. Who knows, looking at the above stat maybe they were on to something.
*******************************************

… and as the old saying went “they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work”

#297 Bookworn Willy on 04.17.20 at 12:38 pm

#287 kc on 04.17.20 at 12:17 pm
273 Jay on 04.17.20 at 11:06 am

“Can just imagine what another couple months of this will do to them. No friends allowed to interact with them nor they allowed at friends places due to the fear of the “covid 19 you going to die” fears…..”

You mean it might turn them into reading books like we used to in the good ol days…

#298 Sky on 04.17.20 at 12:40 pm

@ Sail away : “Why are you posting nonsense?

SpaceX has been delivering cargo to the ISS since 2011 and is completely on track for its first crew delivery this year.

Also, why does everyone hate on Elon?”

****************
This might have a little something to do with it :

https://timeline.com/spacex-musk-rocket-failures-c22975218fbe

The link doesn’t include the last 4 years of entertaining flops however.

Elon Musk is a disgusting human being. And a complete narcissist.

When the amazing cave divers rescued the trapped boys in Thailand a couple of years ago, Musk falsely accused one of them of being a pedophile after he criticized Musk’s proposed mini submarine that Musk said would save the children. Which of course it would NOT have. The real life rescue took unparalleled skill, courage and self-sacrifice. Elon Musk has none of those things.

It’s always – Elon to the rescue… with HEAVY government funding naturally. And what would Elon do without his army of fanboys to continually stroke his ego?

#299 Stan Brooks on 04.17.20 at 12:41 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-12/fed-s-kashkari-says-u-s-may-face-18-months-of-rolling-shutdowns

“We could have these waves of flareups, controls, flareups and controls until we actually get a therapy or a vaccine. I think we should all be focusing on an 18-month strategy for our health care system and our economy.”

Kashkari warned that “this could be a long hard road that we have ahead of us until we get either to an effective therapy or a vaccine.”

“It’s hard for me to see a V-shaped recovery under that scenario,” he said.

My quiz for the day:

What will be the prices of food and essentials in 1.5-2 years?

a. 2-3 times more expensive
b. 2-3 times cheaper

Cheers,

#300 Sail away on 04.17.20 at 12:48 pm

#286 BrianT on 04.17.20 at 12:03 pm

#274Sail-back in the day I had a Vette with side pipes-I did 12.5 at the dragstrip with it-anyway-you could hear that thing coming from a mile away-driving that car was pure pleasure.

—————–

I can’t stand unnecessary noise. Harleys, quads, dirt bikes, 2-strokes, performance cars, etc.

I also bird hunt quietly- small toots on the silent dog whistle when direction is needed. Some talking, no yelling ever. Some handlers spend so much time fussing and yammering at their dogs that a good dog learns to completely tune them out. Totally counterproductive.

#301 Ace on 04.17.20 at 12:58 pm

Risk your life for the economy… or risk the economy for your life…

#302 JB on 04.17.20 at 1:12 pm

#46 Dolce Vita on 04.16.20 at 4:13 pm

#12 JB

Did not see the Smoking Man request, thank you. If he trolls me I do hope he knows there is a Mute feature in Twitter.

That translation was very bad and BTW, I follow those people, FYI.

Centrist with Left and Right leanings depending upon the subject.

In other words, if the person Tweeting is rational and makes a cogent argument I’m all in regardless of political stripe.

Ya, and I follow Trump as well (Ok you got me, Biden too).
…………………………………………………………….
Scusa amico mio.
My mother is Sicilian from Villagrazia near Palermo my father is from Vipiteno way the hell up North near Austria. So between the two parents my Italian is incasinato. My mothers dialect sometimes messes her up in Little Italy or with her Roman Italian friends.
Just saw Alex Jones rate on his twitter feed and it was either a massive stage show or he is really a whack job. You are correct to check out all sides, I follow a lot of the far right but draw the line with people like Jones and Goldy.

Saluti

#303 MF on 04.17.20 at 1:14 pm

#279 JonBoy on 04.17.20 at 11:32 am

Lots of misinformation out there. Wow.

We aren’t “kicking any can” down the road. We are buying time to deal with the inevitable increase in health care services and to have treatment – when the economy reopens.

MF

#304 Toronto_CA on 04.17.20 at 1:18 pm

“I do find it curious that the same people who question the impact of COVID-19, when there is clear data on overloaded healthcare services, CFR, serious complications for some…”

There’s also loads of empty hospitals:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8218299/Londons-Nightingale-Hospital-sits-19-coronavirus-patients-treated-Easter.html

4000 beds..19 in use. So, yeah I do question things when it results in absolute destruction of the economy and personal liberties and probably hundreds of thousands of deaths of despair that no one seems to think about or factor into conversations about preventable deaths!

#305 MF on 04.17.20 at 1:19 pm

81 not 1st on 04.17.20 at 11:38

Literally no one expected a quick recovery.

Either in the real economy or the stock market (with 2 trillion of “stimulus”).

There were structural problems way before the virus. Personal debt levels because of a real estate obsession are primarily reasons why.

MF

#306 Phylis on 04.17.20 at 1:20 pm

#267 Ponzius Pilatius on 04.17.20 at 10:49 am
#253 Flop… on 04.17.20 at 9:41 am
Gonna rev my gas guzzler three extra times this morning in support of Alberta…

M45BC
—————-
In hope it is a glorious Lincoln Navigator.
Nothing else will do.

Xxxxxxxxxx

I’ll rev my lawn mower. And no, It’s not a push type.

#307 BillyBob on 04.17.20 at 1:25 pm

#297 Sail away on 04.17.20 at 12:48 pm
#286 BrianT on 04.17.20 at 12:03 pm

#274Sail-back in the day I had a Vette with side pipes-I did 12.5 at the dragstrip with it-anyway-you could hear that thing coming from a mile away-driving that car was pure pleasure.

—————–

I can’t stand unnecessary noise. Harleys, quads, dirt bikes, 2-strokes, performance cars, etc.

I also bird hunt quietly- small toots on the silent dog whistle when direction is needed. Some talking, no yelling ever. Some handlers spend so much time fussing and yammering at their dogs that a good dog learns to completely tune them out. Totally counterproductive.

====================================================

Yet you obviously don’t mind the sound of your own voice.

I believe in keeping an open mind so I do try to find the value your comments add to the discourse, but your constant self-aggrandizement isn’t really that useful. Or interesting.

#308 Sold Out on 04.17.20 at 1:30 pm

#297 Sail away on 04.17.20 at 12:48 pm
#286 BrianT on 04.17.20 at 12:03 pm

#274Sail-back in the day I had a Vette with side pipes-I did 12.5 at the dragstrip with it-anyway-you could hear that thing coming from a mile away-driving that car was pure pleasure.

—————–

I can’t stand unnecessary noise. Harleys, quads, dirt bikes, 2-strokes, performance cars, etc.

I also bird hunt quietly- small toots on the silent dog whistle when direction is needed. Some talking, no yelling ever. Some handlers spend so much time fussing and yammering at their dogs that a good dog learns to completely tune them out. Totally counterproductive.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Ditto. My first impulse when I hear someone crack their pipes in residential areas is to find an old jar of mayonnaise to plunk them with.

#309 Rotsaltz on 04.17.20 at 1:47 pm

I think it’s enough now. I used to enjoy this blog. Now it’s all about accusing people of enjoying taking handouts and being dirtbags. I don’t see how these comments are helpful during this time. Everyone complaining about the leadership and Canada. Do it yourself then! Or move to another place. Problem is, people love to complain. Stop criticizing people. You value hard work? Work hard. You think the media is lying? Stop reading it. Just be the change you want to see around you.

#310 Nottawa Housing Bust on 04.17.20 at 1:52 pm

I thought this was a rela estate and financial advice blog. Are we so distracted…. for those that think the housing market will not crash I give you the G & M nov 1990 financial section. Quote ” the downtown that started in 1989 should bottom within a year ” . IT LASTED 12 YEARS. And that was with a couple of years of run up prices. Compare that to now. Debt levels all time high. Wages a
Barely increasing for inflation. And a ” gig ” economy. I am thinking we are heading for a Japan style deflationary decade or more. Who knows.
One thing is for sure, history will look at this bubble and say ” what were you thinking “

#311 Nottawahousing Bust on 04.17.20 at 1:53 pm

Link here

https://mobile.twitter.com/Baha64914330/status/1095054060951142400

#312 not 1st on 04.17.20 at 1:57 pm

#302 MF on 04.17.20 at 1:19 pm
—-

We have better visibility on this now. You are looking at 3 quarters negative GDP and like 2-3yrs for a larger rebound which most people wont be able to make.

In the process we are speeding ourselves toward a debt crisis especially in lil ol Canada which doesn’t have the means to whether such an event for very long. Trudeau hasn’t realized that while hes funding the arts and culture to the tune of $500M today while our primary industries start to die.

I am very bearish Canada now. I think this over reaction will kill a half dozen main industries in this country for a long time including RE.

#313 Deplorable Dude on 04.17.20 at 2:06 pm

#261 Sky ‘Elon’s just experiencing a few minor technical difficulties right now – like SpaceX failing to make it up to the International Space Station which is a whopping couple 100 miles up in space (the moon’s over 200,000 miles out). Boeing’s Starliner failed as well. They called the failure “off-nominal insertion”. Love the creative language.’

————–

Bollocks.

SpaceX DM1 mission was a success. Boeing was the one that failed miserably.

In fact NASA just announced this morning that the first American crew mission (DM2) is to launch to the ISS on May 27th on a SpaceX F9.

#314 PastThePeak on 04.17.20 at 2:06 pm

#301 Toronto_CA on 04.17.20 at 1:18 pm
“I do find it curious that the same people who question the impact of COVID-19, when there is clear data on overloaded healthcare services, CFR, serious complications for some…”

There’s also loads of empty hospitals:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8218299/Londons-Nightingale-Hospital-sits-19-coronavirus-patients-treated-Easter.html

4000 beds..19 in use. So, yeah I do question things when it results in absolute destruction of the economy and personal liberties and probably hundreds of thousands of deaths of despair that no one seems to think about or factor into conversations about preventable deaths!
++++++++++++++++++++++

Very selective quoting of my post. I stated right at the beginning I was in favour of opening up the economy as quickly as possible. Much more could be open right now in (most of) Canada. I agree fully that economic destruction can add more deaths than the disease.

However, I sense you are someone who likes to argue, for the sake of arguing. Hence, not much use in continuing…

#315 not 1st on 04.17.20 at 2:07 pm

Buffet is still on the sidelines with his $160B cash hoard, if he isn’t greedy enough with a 30% drop then I don’t think anyone else should be.

Obviously this is an extended bear rally now.

#316 Ace Goodheart on 04.17.20 at 2:17 pm

Canada is devaluing its currency.

When a country does that, the one asset that seems to hold its value is residential real estate.

You can’t print houses like you can print money, and they certainly aren’t making any more land.

Condos will not hold value as well. Also many condos in Toronto sit on leased land (yes the concrete box you bought actually has “air rights” over land belonging to someone other than the condo corporation).

#317 Lahdeedah on 04.17.20 at 2:18 pm

#285 Sail away on 04.17.20 at 12:02 pm
#270 Lahdeedah on 04.17.20 at 10:58 am
#99 Nonplused on 04.16.20 at 6:28 pm

Totally agree.

There is a variety of thinking going on – magical thinking (Trump) and realist thinking. We need more of the latter.

———————-

You got part of that right: there is a variety of thinking going on – realist thinking (Trump and Sweden and Iceland and Brazil- notice how the list is expanding?) and emotional reactionary thinking. We need more of the latter.

– – – – – – – – –

Don’t even for a second lump Trump, the biggest pandemic denier of them all and total screw-up, with Sweden, Iceland or Brazil, or call him anything close to a realist.

Magical thinking is what made him think that the 15 known cases he had at the beginning would soon be “zero”. Haha. Encouraging people to celebrate Easter?
Haha. Math and Science have proven him inexorably wrong.

#318 Shawn Allen on 04.17.20 at 2:28 pm

Don’t Annualize the GDP Drop

Annualizing a GDP change from a quarter makes sense when it is a smooth trend and the trend is expected to continue.

But it makes zero sense to annualize a step change in GDP due to a shutdown. Otherwise a 30% drop in Q2 will be annualized to a 120% drop which makes of course no sense.

I heard today China GDP was down about 6% annualized in Q1. Hard to believe it was that little of a decline. And it would be shocking if this was only a 1.5% drop annualized to 6%.

#319 Marco on 04.17.20 at 2:52 pm

Well , a lot of rage against socialism from people whose ancestors adored national socialism and after fall of concept found safe haven in Canada…

#320 JonBoy on 04.17.20 at 3:24 pm

#300 MF on 04.17.20 at 1:14 pm
#279 JonBoy on 04.17.20 at 11:32 am

Lots of misinformation out there. Wow.

We aren’t “kicking any can” down the road. We are buying time to deal with the inevitable increase in health care services and to have treatment – when the economy reopens.

MF

—–

Hope doesn’t create vaccines. Neither does faith in the media and government or even private enterprise.

There won’t be a vaccine any time soon. People are going to have to get the virus and get over it, or else stay inside indefinitely if they don’t want it (or can’t handle getting it).

What makes you think we’ll suddenly be successful at a vaccine when previous similar situations didn’t get any quick vaccine? Did someone find a herd of unicorns to provide this sudden miraculous cure? They take years to develop and prove and ensure safety.

The idea of waiting for a vaccine is ridiculous, based on history. What does make sense is measured allowance of infection and developing herd immunity, with protection in place for those that probably wouldn’t survive.

Ever take a look at the age data that CBC finally published? People under 50 are basically untouched by this thing (ie, don’t need a hospital and definitely don’t die), and that’s the group that makes up most of our workers.

At this point, we haven’t REMOTELY taxed our healthcare system. We can let a lot more people out without overloading it. Why? Because the ones that will be back to work are mostly under 50 and can handle it at home, just like any other flu-type sickness.

Overreaction (in hindsight) but they need to realize that this thing is very selective, they don’t need 4000 beds in Vancouver area, and they can get on with life without jeopardizing life and limb.

My bro-in-law works in a hospital in the USA, near a hotspot. They’re empty – virtually no cases – and the entire hospital is otherwise shut down. Why? Waiting for the “spike”. It’s insane and people are catching on that, except for select areas, this thing is not what the media is claiming it is.

What we can do is focus on testing to prove who has it (or had it), use some personal responsibility to self-isolate if we get a temperature spike or other symptoms, and move on with life.

#321 Sail away on 04.17.20 at 4:04 pm

#304 BillyBob on 04.17.20 at 1:25 pm

Yet you obviously don’t mind the sound of your own voice.

I believe in keeping an open mind so I do try to find the value your comments add to the discourse, but your constant self-aggrandizement isn’t really that useful. Or interesting.

——————

Self-aggrandizement? Ok, fair… but only as it relates to reality. Many of my posts have everything to do with operations as a business owner, as an investor and as an opportunist.

That needs to be clear for my posts to have relevance- and these often discuss actual actions taken and results from the action.