The hammer

Once upon a time, tenants paid their rent. Or were tossed.

Once upon a time, investors could borrow against their houses to buy rental units, turning idle equity into cash flow, with tax-deductible loan interest.

Once upon a time HELOCs were safe.

But that was then. This is now. It’s virus time.

Last week major banks began making it known to buy a property, rent it out and be a landlord, you’d better have cash for the 20% down payment. No borrowing from a line of credit. No gifted money. No using plastic. In the grand scheme of things, this seems like a small change. But it’s not. This is what your mom would call a harbinger.

First, tenants are no longer to be trusted. Governments, either. Unknown numbers of renters didn’t pay up on the first of April. You can be sure many more will be keeping their cash on the first of May. Thus some REITs have been hammered in recent weeks, since being a landlord is now akin to sneezing on someone’s kid.

Not only have most provinces made it illegal to boot a non-paying tenant during the current crisis, they’ve also indefinitely disbanded landlord-renter tribunals. It could be months and months – or well over a year – before a property owner can be rid of a deadbeat occupant. Meanwhile (by law) they must keep premises heated, serviced, maintained and insured. Suddenly being a landlord is a perilous occupation, rife with financial risk. And the banks don’t wish to share it with you.

Second, this foretells a hammer coming down on HELOCs. After all, it was too good to last. Canadians have borrowed more than $300 billion against their houses (not counting mortgages of $1.6 trillion), and at least a third of them pay only interest on the outstanding balance. In fact, if you used a home equity loan to buy a rental property, you never want to pay it off – since all interest can be deducted from income received, reducing tax payable.

This change is also a warning to everyone with a HELOC, whatever you used the cash for. We’re in a debtstorm at the moment. The virus has made everything worse, instantly, by throwing millions out of work. The fact 600,000 families won’t be making mortgage payments for the next six months is costing the banks about $778 million every four weeks in lost income. It’s risk-off time for the guys in the big, shiny towers at King and Bay.

Remember, lines of credit are demand loans. You can be called upon to repay some or all of your LOC – secured by real estate or not – at any time. This has never happened on a wide scale, of course. But we’ve never turned off the economy before, either. By refusing to allow lines to fund investment property purchases, consider the first shot to have been fired. That banker may be gunning for you, next.

So, third, the virus has shown – in the starkest of terms – that millions of Canadians have allowed debt to render them impotent. The bankers are exposed. Expect them to be reducing risk in future, especially as politicians and financially-pooched Canadians bumble their way to added chaos.

The feds asked the banks to defer mortgage payments. They did. Now borrowers are screaming that missed payments will be added to their outstanding balances (duh). They thought ‘deferred’ meant ‘free.’ Ottawa has also asked that credit card interest be slashed. Political leaders have clearly sided with tenants who cannot/will not pay, with homeowners who borrowed debt they cannot service plus consumers who financed lives with plastic, not income.

Ms. Virus quickly proved all those posts about people being a couple of hundred bucks from monthly misery were correct. Witness the fact over five million people have applied for the emergency monthly pogey of two grand. They lacked the resources to survive four weeks without help. Yikes.

At the apex of this are the banks. They can, and will, absorb some of this pain. But when we come out of the dark and into the sun again – in a month or two – credit will no longer flow like the mighty Fraser.

So stop this yammering about a debt jubilee, kids. It’ll be exactly the opposite.

     

A brief word about your portfolio. Despite massive unemployment in Canada and the US, the awful impact of Covid-19 on the US and unknown damage to the global economy, stocks have been on a roll. The gains last week were the best in 45 years, with American markets plumping by more than 12% and Bay Street following.

Are investors nuts? Don’t they know what’s happening? Over 16 million US workers out of a job in four weeks and unemployment jumping from 3% to 10% – how could that lead to an equity rebound?

Markets may well have gotten ahead of themselves and will retreat, but as the gauge of fear (the Vix) drops, the S&P 500 has rocked because (a) the bad news is old news and (b) the worse things get the more governments and central bankers will spend to prop it all up, plus (c) the virus is starting to plateau.

The four words now echoing: stay calm and go long.

About the photo: Tell me honestly you didn’t need a puppy picture today. Especially one who can shop!

 

287 comments ↓

#1 604Sam on 04.12.20 at 1:55 pm

First! Wash your hands and be safe dogs.

#2 Owe Canada on 04.12.20 at 1:58 pm


”The latest surge in government debt sales comes after levels had already risen in 2019 when global debt across all sectors bulged by over $10 trillion to exceed $255 trillion.”

“By the end of 2019, global debt stood at 322% of GDP – 40 percentage points higher than at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, the IIF said.”

Government debt sales hit record $2.1 trln in March in “dramatic” global debt bulge -IIF

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-debt-iif-idAFL8N2BV42M

April 2020 Global Debt Monitor: COVID-19 Lights a Fuse

https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/3839/April-2020-Global-Debt-Monitor-COVID-19-Lights-a-Fuse

#3 Emile on 04.12.20 at 2:02 pm

> The fact 600,000 families won’t be making mortgage payments for the next six months is costing the banks about $778 million every four weeks in lost income.

Wow, that is a boatload of money!

#4 TurnerNation on 04.12.20 at 2:03 pm

Perhaps fittingly I composed this this morning:

Do we really have Property Rights in Canada? (This weblog pointed out, they are not enshrined in the Charter). Is this illusion of right fast being stripped away? Evidence below.

1. A municipality in Ontario is refusing to turn on water valves, to properties deemed seasonal. Stay home they order. (The rationale is a blunt tool of oppression, that healthy people might overwhelm local ERs (despite no one knowing anyone sickened)). At this point you are paying property tax, insurance, maybe mortgage on a property you cannot access. Do you really own it?

2. BC’s punitive tax on secondary/seasonal properties. At this point your chances of selling this rec property in this market might be slim. Liquidity lockup. That tax if left unchecked will deplete your property’s worth to zero. Add in the calls of closing the BC-AB border keeping healthy people out and…do you really own your property?

3. Loan to value. If rec property or rental condo markets seize up or re-reprice much lower, and banks re-assess Loan-to-value – on mortgages and Helocs – a mark-to-market with ensuing margin calls, did you really own the property or was it more temporary?
Why settle for the eggs (interest), when they can take the entire goose (condo).

4. Renter rights. Need I say more. Evictions are banned, rent payments are optional, squatting is legal. Do you really own that property? The Great Reversal into global communism is here?

4. Insurance. That blunt tool of our elites already used to drive families onto the street, out of their perfectly good and now-uninsurable Condos. (Climate change you see!) What else could Insurance be used for, in the drive to the big C? Let’s check the archives…

#43 TurnerNation on 11.10.19 at 6:16 pm
Hearded into cities and wholly dependent on record high government electricity prices. With a stroke of a pen the insurers can imprison us all into cities.Toronto is ready – with an unending pipeline of 50-80 storey condos.

#91 TurnerNation on 01.21.20 at 11:39 pm … the full scope of condo Insurance being used a a weapon – that rural areas would be declared uninsurable and forcing people …into cities

#5 YouKnowWho on 04.12.20 at 2:12 pm

Garth,

There is no standup comedian doing finance comedy.

Why don’t you hit up a few open mic nights?

You could be as big as Tim Allen, talking about financial tools.

#6 Jimmy on 04.12.20 at 2:13 pm

Happy Easter to our very fine host and to everyone here for puppy pics!

#7 Lost...but not leased on 04.12.20 at 2:14 pm

Happy Easter all !

#8 Brian Ripley on 04.12.20 at 2:16 pm

“Without an effective therapy or a vaccine, the U.S. could expect 18 months of rolling shutdowns as the outbreak recedes and then returns, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said.

“We’re looking around the world. As they relax the economic controls, the virus flares back up again,” Kashkari said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

“This could be a long hard road that we have ahead of us until we get either to an effective therapy or a vaccine,” he said. “It’s hard for me to see a V-shaped recovery under that scenario.”

Bloomberg reporting today, April 11, 2020:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/u-s-leads-world-in-deaths-pentagon-funds-masks-virus-update

#9 YouKnowWho on 04.12.20 at 2:16 pm

Since we were talking about The 10 Commandments yesterday down here on the underbelly of the blog…

Task masters would whip the slaves to get them to do what they wanted.

What are the Bank Masters doing here and now to their debt slaves?

#10 kc on 04.12.20 at 2:16 pm

The spoken truth…..

Cheers

#11 Dave on 04.12.20 at 2:16 pm

There are empty high rises everywhere along with Cranes making new ones. If no one is buying…how many months before the banks pull the plug on Developers?

#12 Linda on 04.12.20 at 2:21 pm

Todays picture is ‘AWWWW!!!’. Thanks for sharing:)

HELOC’s are indeed demand loans, but if the banks don’t want to end up becoming landlords I can’t see them calling them in, especially since they can’t currently turf the tenants. Once this crisis passes however I think there will be a credit reckoning.

As for those who though deferred meant ‘free’, talk about one toke over the line. The Big 5 are not the bank of Mom & Pop kids. They actually expect you to pay them back & are not going to go ‘there, there’ & let you off the hook no matter how sad your story is. Ditto for any other financial institution & heaven help you if you are in the clutches of a payday loan shop.

#13 dosouth on 04.12.20 at 2:28 pm

Early today Garth. just enjoying riding out a thunder/lightening extravaganza here in NW Alabama. wind 25-40 mph and possible tornado. Most americans are so overwhelmed by all of this. Got their cars pulled right up to the entrance doors of their coaches for the quick escape, and us, well, our motorcycle won’t help us much.

These things tend to make you deal with the immediate and put your faith in the long term planning you have done…or not done.

Happy and safe Easter………..

#14 Mean Gene on 04.12.20 at 2:28 pm

The voice of reason, many thanks for your time and thoughts

#15 Nat on 04.12.20 at 2:29 pm

You’re the best Garth. Happy Easter

#16 Christie ARMpits on 04.12.20 at 2:30 pm

Happy Easter Garth & family

#17 HowDeepThePain? on 04.12.20 at 2:30 pm

I don’t fear the Virus but I do fear government response.

Will Justin T. apologize (which he loves to do) for reacting late and then over reacting? Maybe some screening at YYZ 4 -8 weeks ago would have been a good idea?

John T. – 6 weeks ago he was shaming parents for pulling kids out of schools who’s parents recently traveled to China. But now I can’t even go for a walk outside without getting fined?

The political correct madness needs to stop. People desperately true leadership.

#18 Brian Ripley on 04.12.20 at 2:31 pm

My 6 city real estate charts for sales and inventory, absorption rates and months of inventory is published: http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html

Months of Inventory is startling in its consistency of how quickly inventory has been liquidated especially since last year.

This does not appear to be a result of rising sales especially in Toronto and Vancouver but suggests that the FOMO crowd has been very busy this last year.

Falling knives if that is what is in store for the balance of 2020 could turn into falling pianos.

#19 Blair on 04.12.20 at 2:32 pm

I don’t have any debt. I own my own place. I have investments. I’ve always paid my bills and taxes. I dare say that I’ve worked hard. Am I going to be paying for the massive government debt created because some people are so financially irresponsible? Still, I feel fortunate. Happy Easter to you and Dorothy, Garth.

#20 Flop... on 04.12.20 at 2:36 pm

Flop’s Coronavirus Song Of The Day.

(On being encouraged to snitch on each other and the surveillance by big brother)

Rockwell, featuring Michael Jackson.

Somebody’s Watching Me…

M45BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7YvAYIJSSZY

A snippet.

I’m just an average man with an average life
I work from 9 to 5, hey hell, I pay the price
All I want is to be left alone, in my average home
But why do I always feel
Like I’m in the Twilight Zone?
I always feel like somebody’s watchin’ me
And I have no privacy
I always feel like somebody’s watchin’ me
Is it just a dream.

#21 Viorelli on 04.12.20 at 2:36 pm

The virus is undoubtedly creating other economic opportunities: last week in Sicily a couple of people covered head to toe walk into the bank. Everyone in the line up suddenly got very nervous. “Calm down everyone, it is not a virus, just an armed robbery!” All the people in a line breathed a sign of relief: “oh that’s fine!’

#22 Miss Construed on 04.12.20 at 2:36 pm

I always need a puppy picture. It’s the only reason why I read this blog. Thanks always for the sage advice, Garth.

#23 binky barnes on 04.12.20 at 2:37 pm

Best blog on the internet. Thanks for all you–and your Saturday sidekicks–do on a year-round basis, Garth. And all the best to you and Dorothy on this holiday weekend.

BB

#24 B from Q on 04.12.20 at 2:37 pm

Happy renter since the arrival to Canada. Paying my dues and not living above my means. Usually a contrarian – i.e. when all people are herding toilet paper, I just watch the show from the sidelines with the popcorn and a Corona (R) in my hand.

How can we avoid the limitless burden being generated today by the government? Put pressure on them today or fight later? It doesn’t matter for me anymore, rather it is a fight for my 3 kids. I (or my kids) don’t want to pay for the ‘freebies’ given out today.

The people in charge
1. will not pay the bill,
2. they are not being held accountable and
3. are not exploring all the options.

#25 auskirby604 on 04.12.20 at 2:39 pm

I’d guess 25% of people in our DT West End Van apt didn’t pay rent for Apr and won’t until we have to.

Landlords have screwed many of us over with crappy upkeep and not enforcing the rules of the apt like noise complaints etc.

The gov’t will be forced to help out any landlords that have financial trouble and all will be business as usual. If we all just don’t pay, the problem will be taken care of by the gov’t.

And before ppl start ripping on us millennials, remember we didn’t ask to be brought into this world, we’re trying to get by and it’s not our fault that this #[email protected] took place. The gov’t won’t go bankrupt as they control how much money they can make. Need another billion, they can just make it and give it out. Easy as that. People are making this more complicated that it really is.

#26 Gino on 04.12.20 at 2:39 pm

House/condo prices haven’t come down. Why don’t you ever call this out in your negative real estate blogs?
Landlords can apply for financial relief from government so they don’t need to kick renters out. Everything is fine.
If debt is cutoff by banks money will not flow to stocks or balanced funds either so it wouldn’t be just real estate. All the feds money printing has bid up stocks and real estate. You cannot poopoo one and hold the other in a pedestal.

GTA prices have indeed declined since mid-March. There is no financial relief aimed at landlords (at least I know of none. Do you?). LOCs can be used for equity purchases, but no longer for rental property down payments. Try again. – Garth

#27 NFN_NLN on 04.12.20 at 2:39 pm

As is tradition, if the yellow bellied Trudeau gets scared by his shadow, we’ll have 2 more months of quarantine.

But most just say that is superstitious non-sense.

NFN_NLN

#28 Reality is stark on 04.12.20 at 2:42 pm

This blog has preached balance for good reason.
But good reason does not exist in the Canadian populous.
When you read between the lines in the comment section you realize how ignorant the average Canadian is. I guarantee you that people are not using this time to exercise more and lose weight and improve the condition of their lungs. The person who comments here is likely 30-40 pounds overweight and smokes like a chimney.
They pontificate about epidemiology with a background in history. Ludicrous.
You would think at least one comment would be about using this pandemic to trigger a life altering moment to be less of a burden to our “free” healthcare system. The reality is that most will gain another 15 pounds watching UTube and Netflix. Very disturbing.
Garth is right. Many Canadians will receive EI and CERB and higher GST rebates and choose not to pay rent. That is how socialists behave.
As the Chinese focus on the automotive sector and take more of those good paying jobs from Canadians focusing on social justice concerns, try to see if you can abscond with wealth from family courts. It is going to be extremely difficult as the marriage rate and birth rate disintegrate.

#29 seb on 04.12.20 at 2:46 pm

Big question is: is this lockdown is even constitutional?

The Constitution of Canada, the supreme law of Canada, prohibits government from enforcing arbitrary detention (self-isolation) & treatment. (A.C., supra, at paragraphs 100-102,136)

It includes the right to refuse medical treatment & the right to make “reasonable medical choices” without threat of criminal prosecution. (R. v. Smith, 2015 SCC 34 at paragraph 18.). The Emergencies Act is constrained by the Charter.

#30 akashic record on 04.12.20 at 2:47 pm

Are banks regulated by the government or the government has to ask them “to do favours”?

Let’s get this straight first.

#31 Mark on 04.12.20 at 2:47 pm

I think there is a huge difference between people using CERB because their job is no longer paying vs. what you describe as people needing money after only two weeks out of work. The government shut the economy down, money is there, why not use it. Wouldn’t you expect people to prudently access financial tools that are available?

#32 akashic record on 04.12.20 at 2:49 pm

#19 Blair

Thumbs up!

#33 Sail Away on 04.12.20 at 2:50 pm

Oooh… harbingers. I love harbingers. And foreshadowing. Unrest is exciting. So many niches to explore. You never know where the treasure will be.

All is well in the world. Sitting with a coffee on the deck watching my son and girlfriend pulling crab traps in the dory. And plotting of course. Always.

Lots of work ahead for the Sail Away empire. Thinking hard assetts and critical infrastructure. Money is an accepted fictionary item of value that can be used to accumulate the important things.

#34 Andrew on 04.12.20 at 2:52 pm

Long S&P sub 2000 when it gets closer to bottom over the next 12 months.

#35 Stoph on 04.12.20 at 2:53 pm

Even the comments at CBC are unsympathetic to people being charged interest on their deferred mortgage payments despite the very sympathetic CBC writer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/banks-charge-interest-on-interest-for-mortgage-payment-deferral-1.5529399

#36 auskirby604 on 04.12.20 at 2:54 pm

What about the NDP guy saying everyone should just apply for everything and just get it. That evens the playing field.

#37 wallflower on 04.12.20 at 2:55 pm

I look forward to reading the final report on CERB several years out. Know people pulling in tens of thousands cash per year registering for CERB based on their minimum annual reporting (~$12,000).
Who really needed it?
Who got it who really needed it?
How much overkill?

#38 Georg on 04.12.20 at 2:56 pm

the worse things get the more governments and central bankers will spend to prop it all up, plus

,,,,,,,,,,,

LOL, ah those fiscal conservatives

SPY 150 , sorry man

Consumption , ya need consumption…..

#39 KNOW IT ALL on 04.12.20 at 3:02 pm

THE BANKS are not going to call HELOCS back. Who’s got the money to pay, forced to sell then – nope no buyers, not on this scale.

DEBT ORGY….. already begun. 73 Billion of it here 2.3 Trillion south of the border.

Exactly opposite you say….. yeah right cuz this times somehow different?

#40 jerry on 04.12.20 at 3:08 pm

The VIX.

Is the vix an autonomous measure of market sentiment (sort of like a thermometer that simply reports your temperature)? But is not the thing that actually causes your temperature to rise or fall.

#41 binky barnes on 04.12.20 at 3:09 pm

And before ppl start ripping on us millennials, remember we didn’t ask to be brought into this world, we’re trying to get by.

__________________________________

This is one of the most pathetic things I have ever read. This kid needs a swift kick in the backside. What a loser!

#42 Camille on 04.12.20 at 3:15 pm

Lots of inconsistent stuff here. Ill try to help set things straight. Things will get back to normal and rates will be very low, but may rise some, reversion and banks need it. Bullish.
Demand for housing will resume. This is innate, though perhaps inconvenient. Same happened in great recession.
Further market plunge is manager’s necessary cautionary message, but not assured. For this to happen economy must be near collapse or for recovery to be far far off, and for that to happen virus effects have to worsen with no clear path to resolution. Open for debate because of herd immunity question?
Canada will follow US (who understand economics, don’t rely on what T2 or NYT, or The Guardian say). Plus socialists don’t understand anything. Cannot lock down healthy, working people, when solution is testing and targeting most vulnerable, as in senior assisted care living. If you have doubts in your government, and their abilities to know and lead, look no further. Heart wrenching and totally unacceptable. Fear have led population to accept this so far. But a clear path is required if a revolt is to be avoided. Bullish.
Many are waiting for the next market leg down, and I would bet on it, but not at the cost of liquidating my portfolio.
Did my best here. Look up mohamed el-erian’s path to resolution, stop reading david rosenberg’s nonsense (you’ll lose all your money).

#43 akashic record on 04.12.20 at 3:20 pm

It looks like the Democratic Party is ready to drop Biden.

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.20 at 3:24 pm

@#35 Stoph
“Even the comments at CBC are unsympathetic to people being charged interest on their deferred mortgage payments”

++++

Over 5000 comments on that story….. :)-

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.20 at 3:27 pm

@#268 Figure it out
“Singapore’s a pretty great place if you like living in a one party state with no free press. The food’s good, too.”
++++

Over 35% of the population are foreign workers, makes for lots of good restaurants I guess.

#46 the Jaguar on 04.12.20 at 3:27 pm

Jiminy Crickets! There’s nothing new under the sun about the Ancient Warrior Banks providing hardship relief in times of fires, floods, crop failures, etc., and this current calamity makes any of those seem like cream puff troubles. They’re buying a little time for themselves as well, as ‘non performing’ loans and mortgages can cause a little trouble in the magic accounting department. I doubt any loan would be called provided payments are being contractually made, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they capped limits to current balances to ensure any sudden elevator drops in value don’t impact their obligations under the Bank Act (80%).
Goes without saying their aggressive and sometimes willfully blind adventures in the mortgage lending department are likely going to catch up with them. No doubt they are going over certain portions of their portfolios that represented ‘non standard lending’ with a microscope. People will sell their souls to hang on to the house their families live in, but as for properties they viewed as cash cows on the AirBnB market, well maybe not so much. Even if the crisis blows over sooner versus later, demand will be unpredictable, but predictably very slow. The smart money is thinking about that right now. Herdonomics, as Smoking Man often repeated.
Fishman will be tickled you used the phrase ‘mighty Fraser’, Garth.

#47 the Jaguar on 04.12.20 at 3:33 pm

P.S. This wednesday will mark the 108th anniversary of the sinking of the RMS Titanic. Considered unsinkable. Oh boy.

#48 YouKnowWho on 04.12.20 at 3:34 pm

#29 seb

You, me, they…just sheeple. Not able to make our own decisions. Especially during a war.

We’re at war here, didn’t you know? Enemy is stealthy, cleaver. Did I ever tell you how amazing viruses are?

Since we’re all out of sports, maybe we should treat this Covid vs. Humanity as a Virus Night In Canada sport event?

What the game recap so far? Who’s winning?

I’d say the offensive play of the virus has been flawless. It dismantled our defences and scared our experienced players off the field. Piggybacking around the country on our Manitoba Jets. Canadiens are falling down like Leafs in the fall. Senators don’t know how to respond, throwing Oil on the Flames. We’re damn near a riot and burning down our own city – like Canucks fans.

Score so far…

Virus 19 : 0 Humans

…end of period 1.

#49 Keep Your Rent on 04.12.20 at 3:39 pm

Tenants keep your rent.

Landlords keep your distance.

CERB: Relief for tenants or bail out for landlords?

The CERB going out under conditions in which rent payment is due just means relief for landlords and crumbs for tenants. There is no avoiding or ignoring the double-crisis tenants will face every month that the COVID-19 crisis goes on while rent is expected.

The setup here is that individual tenants are being required to assume all the financial and legal responsibility for securing a bailout for landlords while being told the Federal Government has saved us. Landlords waited for April 6th with even more anticipation than tenants themselves. It’s why they have repeatedly reminded tenants to apply for this relief money. They view it as their money. On the day that the CERB was made available, tenants across the city have been contacted with renewed demands for immediate payment of rent or commitments to the above mentioned potentially catastrophic “repayment agreements”.

These landlords know as well as anyone that the math doesn’t add up. Paying back April’s rent on top of future rent within a few months will not be possible for many tenants. To make matters worse, these repayment plans are often contingent on tenants signing to voluntarily vacate if all terms of their repayment agreement are not met. This effectively eliminates a defense against eviction at the Landlord and Tenant Board when it re-opens. If a landlord is able to get 75%-95% of each tenant’s CERB, then they will. But they are also more than satisfied with getting every dollar that they can while also guaranteeing they can get rid of lower income tenants.Even for those who qualify, the Canada Emergency Response Benefit doesn’t add up to as much as we might think. We’ve all heard the “$2,000/mo for all Canadians in need” figure. This $2,000/mo is taxable income and repayment will be required. The taxable portion (say 20% or $400/mo) is a debt. To view it as anything other than a debt is dangerous.

Now, let’s do some simple addition: In Toronto, the average rent for a 1 bedroom overall sits at about $1,500/mo and a bachelor costs $1,200/mo. But the newer the lease the higher the rent. Leases on 1 bedrooms signed in 2020 had an average rent of $2,300/mo.

Best case scenario: With $1,600/mo from CERB (after tax) and $1,200 ~ $1,500 monthly rent, a tenant has $100 ~ $400 to survive on for a month (not including debt accumulated).If 75%-95% of the CERB is expected to go to landlords then who is this relief actually for, and what emergency is being prioritized? Are unemployed tenants really expected to survive a global pandemic on as little as $25 a week while landlords are paid in full?

Very few tenants who receive money through the CERB will have anywhere near enough to cover rent, food, and other supplies for April. Let alone be able to pay May rent as well.

And tenants with no income who can’t get the CERB money will just be abandoned to eventual eviction or crippling debt?The willful ignorance of simple math that politicians, bankers, and landlords continue to operate under with respect to rent is unacceptable. As long as rent remains on the table for the 700,000+ tenant households in Toronto, it is a clear and present danger to the health and safety of everyone.

1. As of April 7, 2020, the CERB excludes hundreds of thousands of workers

Approximately 842,000 workers in Canada will (or should) receive nothing from the CERB under its current structure, according to a study by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. Currently excluded groups include the following:

1.workers who lost their jobs before the COVID-19 crisis but did not work enough hours to qualify for EI;
2.freelance or self-employed workers whose income has been dramatically reduced but not wiped out entirely;
3.“gig economy” or part-time workers who pick up an occasional shift;
4.migrant workers who don’t have a valid Social Insurance Number or Individual Tax Number;
5.students, recent graduates or others who earned less than $5,000 in the past year;
6.any worker who “voluntarily” stopped working at some point during the crisis.

These exclusions may change as new policies are announced but these groups remain excluded as of now.

2. The CERB is taxable income

Workers who qualify for the CERB will have to repay a significant chunk of the $2,000 they receive when filing their taxes next year. Assuming a 20% income tax rate, $400 per month will have to be repaid which means the CERB is really worth $1,600/mo at the end of the day. Rent for a one bedroom apartment in Toronto is close to or above the full $2,000/mo CERB payout. Remember that there is no way for workers to make up this difference, because they are not allowed to earn additional income while receiving the CERB. Using the CERB to pay rent leaves tenants with virtually no money to live on. Potentially for months.

3. The CERB is time limited

The economic fallout of COVID-19 will far outlast it. The coverage period for CERB ends October 3rd 2020. Over a 34 week period, an unemployed worker is entitled to a maximum of 16 weeks’ worth of benefits, which is $8,000 (or $6,400 after taxes). The government has given no indication that workers who remain unemployed for more than 16 weeks will receive EI or some other benefit. It is entirely possible that those who receive the full CERB benefit will have to rely on this money to survive through the summer and fall. And it is entirely possible that those that cannot survive on that little for so long will be forced to work in unsafe conditions for either themselves or others. Or access some form of debt. Either of these two options would exacerbate or prolong either a public health crisis, economic crisis, or both.

4. There is little oversight or verification

ALL applicants for the CERB are apparently being approved. If someone accesses relief in error or CRA disqualifies a person next year, that person will then be faced with repayment of the relief money and further financial or legal penalties. The guidelines for eligibility are entirely unclear for many unemployed workers. If it turns out that the full CERB would be required to be repaid by an unemployed worker and 75%+ of that money had already been given to their landlord, that financial burden will crush someone that has been fortunate enough to make it through the COVID-19 crisis. Burdening unemployed workers with the responsibility of determining their own eligibility as well as facing severe repercussions for any mistakes made, just drops a ticking time bomb into their already overburdened and uncertain lives.

http://parkdaleorganize.ca/2020/04/08/cerb-bail-out-for-landlords/

#50 Sail Away on 04.12.20 at 3:48 pm

Rarely have we lived in more propitious times.

Be the crocodile. If we can’t get a crocodile’s immunity, we can at least emulate its actions when the herd of prey panics. Mmmmm… dinner… and dessert

#51 Westcdn on 04.12.20 at 3:54 pm

I hear the Quebec Premier is very popular within his Quebec province. It looks the Union Nationale has returned. Meanwhile I grit my teeth about the fate of oil sands and Albertans. Maybe they will clear a path for us. I still think we are over governed. I see most “experts” as not being able to take advice but they certainly dish it out and have the gall to expect me to obey without question. That kind of response from me is earned.

I am optimistic this pandemic is overblown and GT will be vindicated for his stand. There is still much to be learned so best to stay with common sense and protect your health for the weak. I am being punished for investing into relative illiquid equities. The game is not over. Recently I have been buying floating rate preferred shares as a hedge if I can get them cheap.

I used to listen to Marianne Faithfull to sooth my soul…
Working Class Hero

hppts://www.bhttpsing.com/videos/search?q=Marianne+Faithfull+Working+Class+Hero&docid=608021979817642635&mid=8D0DE6F72E1D139C3B918D0DE6F72E1D139C3B91&view=detail&FORM=VRAASM&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3DMarianne%2BFaithfull%2BWorking%2BClass%2BHero%26qpvt%3DMarianne%2BFaithfull%2BWorking%2BClass%2BHero%26FORM%3DVDRE

Broken English

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=marianne+faithfull+broken+english+song&docid=608039043720743902&mid=15D97FCCCB726AC8B2D815D97FCCCB726AC8B2D8&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

#52 Banks on 04.12.20 at 3:55 pm

800 million a month or 2.4 billion a quarter considering the banks made 10.5 billion last quarter.
I think banks are a great buy and I can earn between 5 and 6 percent waiting out the storm.

Happy Easter and thanks again for the past weeks of solid posts.

#53 Westcdn on 04.12.20 at 3:56 pm

Lets try the link again… Working Class Hero

https://www.bhttpsing.com/videos/search?q=Marianne+Faithfull+Working+Class+Hero&docid=608021979817642635&mid=8D0DE6F72E1D139C3B918D0DE6F72E1D139C3B91&view=detail&FORM=VRAASM&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3DMarianne%2BFaithfull%2BWorking%2BClass%2BHero%26qpvt%3DMarianne%2BFaithfull%2BWorking%2BClass%2BHero%26FORM%3DVDRE

#54 Allan Lee on 04.12.20 at 3:59 pm

Thanks for being you and all you do, Garth! Have a safe and Happy Easter.

#55 TheDood on 04.12.20 at 3:59 pm

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver claims that realtors are an ‘essential service’ here – https://www.rebgv.org/news-archive/provincial-government-lists-realtors–as-an-essential-service-.html

A link inside the article says ‘read full article here’. Went to the link, not one word on realtors or real estate.

#56 Heloguy on 04.12.20 at 4:01 pm

What I take from this pandemic is investing should not have any emotion surrounding it. A million or even 10 million deaths, in the great scheme of things means nothing to the world as a whole. A saying we had in the military is, If a turnip falls off the truck, go get another turnip…. We are all just turnips.

#57 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 4:08 pm

“If you watched the video, you would not write about “why not concentrate on explanations and research from actual virologists” – because in the linked video that is exactly what happened. He was citing virology research papers.:

But why do YOU need a non-virologist to mediate between you and virologists? What’s his game? What’s he selectively emphasising and de-emphasising? Who likes the video you linked to? Well, we can check the last question.

One is linked from a comment on a blog whose author says “I’ve come across some videos that seem to indicate that the state and MSM deceit may be on an even deeper level than I thought.” — OK, paranoid

Another is linked on a comment that says “JC’s back in his non-whack job mode and makes a good case we are being intentionally deceived about the origin of the virus.” — so even the people recommending his videos think he’s a sometime whack-job?

What about this Wittkowski guy? Here’s an interview with him from ten days ago, predicting total US deaths could hit a maximum of 10k over four weeks. Well, they’re already at 21.5k. I guess if you believe the death toll has been wildly inflated, he could still be right…

Also, he seems to have jumped on the bandwagon. He’s no longer at Rockefeller U, but CEO of ASDERA, which is “seeking partners to commercialize a class of treatments (pat. pending) to improve autophagy and reduce inflammation in age-related conditions including metastatic, neurodegenerative, cardiovascular, metabolic, and virus (incl. coronavirus/SARS-CoV-2) diseases.” Yeah, who wants to bet there was no mention of coronavirus in his linkedin profile a month ago? the “including” virus certainly seems tacked on to the rest, which are all “age-related.” Whatevs, it is the right of every American to try and turn a quick buck.

Here’s “J.C” –
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-couey-a20a1383

If you want actual virology stuff, I googled best virology blogs and found several good ones, along with a podcast. If you want amateur hour conspiracy theory nuttery, it looks like you already know where to look.

#58 Heloguy on 04.12.20 at 4:09 pm

During the pandemic is it okay to tell someone to “Stay Positive”?

#59 Tony on 04.12.20 at 4:12 pm

Re: #3 Emile on 04.12.20 at 2:02 pm

It’s not costing the banks anything as the interest accrues and the banks get ready to foreclose if the mortgage holder can’t pay the mortgage plus put up a boatload of cash if for some reason real estate values start to drop.

#60 aerozone on 04.12.20 at 4:16 pm

My mother called everything a harbinger.
You might say she was a harbinger binger.

Thanks for your relentless support of the facts, Garth!

#61 Thank you Garth! on 04.12.20 at 4:20 pm

Ever since I started reading this blog a few years ago, I started following your advice – investing and paying down debit. And literally 3 days after the covid hit, I paid my final payment on my LOC. Done and dusted. Except the house, I have zero debit. No car payment, nothing. And I managed to gather some nice assets along the way too. THANKYOU FOR YOUR BLOG. I found it at the right time in my life and am benefitting from your free advice. I sit here in my sunny yard not caring about money through this, and hell I might go have another beer. You the man Garth. Life-long fan here.

#62 Lee on 04.12.20 at 4:22 pm

#3 Emile,

I don’t think 5-6 Billion is that much to the big banks. CMHC has told them it’ll buy 150B of bad mortgage loans from them. And this is with stored premiums – not one tax dollar will be used. Say what you want about the government, but CMHC is well managed. It is well positioned to keep the banks afloat in almost any scenario. I tell people if they fear a big bank failure consider keeping some money in Ontario savings bonds or U.S. treasuries. If the states defaults we’re toast anyway. And what happened to the FIRE people?

#63 Lost...but not leased on 04.12.20 at 4:23 pm

DELETED

#64 Penny Henny on 04.12.20 at 4:25 pm

Witness the fact over five million people have applied for the emergency monthly pogey of two grand. They lacked the resources to survive four weeks without help. Yikes.-GT
//////////////

I’ve heard it said before, maybe even here, anytime the government is offering free money – Take it.
So whether these folks lacked the resources or not the smart move is to take the money.

#65 Smoking Man on 04.12.20 at 4:27 pm

Just wanted to wish all the dogs, their loved ones, Garth, Doraty and Bandit and all the crew at Turner Investments.

Happy Easter.

#66 Penny Henny on 04.12.20 at 4:27 pm

The four words now echoing: stay calm and go long.
//////////

Smokie says Camel toe.

#67 Handsome Ned on 04.12.20 at 4:30 pm

Imagine a large group of people dining together at a fancy restaurant. The desert plates and brandy glasses are cleared. The waiter puts the bill in the center of the table and the guy who ordered liver and onions with tap water gasps as he glimpses it. Some one picks up the bill, does a tip calculation and says everyone put in 200 dollars. This is where we are headed. I hope your not the liver and onion guy.

#68 Post on 04.12.20 at 4:38 pm

Happy Easter, Dorothy, Bandit and Garth.
Happy Easter Doug, Ryan and family.

May you all be safe and healthy.

#69 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 4:42 pm

“I guarantee you that people are not using this time to exercise more and lose weight and improve the condition of their lungs.”

You’d probably have gotten a pretty good chuckle watching me repack the bottom bracket bearings in a cheap department store bike last week. And my choice words for the manufacturer saving $0.03/unit by skipping the bearing cage.

#70 BlogDog123 on 04.12.20 at 4:44 pm

A landlord’s guide to squeezing your basement tenants to pay rent on time:

Some of these you would have needed to plan for in the design of your basement rental suite:

1. Few electrical outlets provided in the unit, each with 5 amp breakers. Good tenants who pay on time get the remainder of outlets activated with 15 amp service.
2. Lower the water pressure to minimums set by law. Same goes for the capacity of the hot water tank.
3. Separated electrical panel and meter.

Of course if you turn the screws on your non-paying tenant, they’ll end up being like that Michael Keaton character in Pacific Heights and start breeding cockroaches in your basement…

#71 RoddyJohn on 04.12.20 at 4:46 pm

It is all an illusion! We will continue to live paycheque to paycheck. Our priorities are messed up badly – there are 3 billion iPhones produced yet we are unable to assemble easily obtainable medical equip (masks, ventilators etc).

Let the consumptive consumers prevail….

#72 Dolce Vita on 04.12.20 at 4:49 pm

Speechless.

Good Lord, I knew it was bad but not THAT bad.

+5 million on emergency monthly pogey. That’s a 1/4 of the damn Labour Work Force. Yikes is right.

Reads like the free wheeling anything goes days of pre-virus banking and borrowing are coming to a bone crushing end.

All I want to know is who is going to pay for all this largesse by Gov? Certainly not the people that the cash is going to.

We’ll see how sustainable these “Middle Class” giveaways by Justin are after this is all over. THAT I have to see with a Gov up to its eyeballs in debt.

————————–

PS:

Italia opening up the economy for a lot of workers and companies April 14th.

I’ll let you all know how it’s going (mistakes mostly) so Canada doesn’t repeat any of the errors that Canary in the Coal Mine Italia makes.

Poor Italia, leading developed Western nations in all the wrong ways as of late. On that sad note, Buona Pasqua to all.

#73 Penny Henny on 04.12.20 at 4:52 pm

Bikers rejoice!

With so little traffic and so many with free time I think the bikers will be out in full force this summer.
I would even consider the 400 series highways as being safe.
Are motorcycle shops considered essential?
I guess that depends if you ride a Harley.

#74 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 4:55 pm

“Even the comments at CBC are unsympathetic to people being charged interest on their deferred mortgage payments despite the very sympathetic CBC writer.”

Left unsaid was that the banks flow many of those mortgage payments through to Canada Mortgage Bonds, the holders of which will be expecting their semi-annual interest payments to arrive on schedule, backed as they are by the Full Faith and Credit of the Government of Canada. $238 billion outstanding. You’d think somebody would remember the basic mechanics of the mortgage market, a mere decade after the GFCcgave us all an education.

#75 Economy on 04.12.20 at 4:56 pm

When will the Government start becoming fiscally responsible? Will they ever care about the increasing deficits and stop throwing public money at small businesses which are anyway going to fail. The taxes are going to increase several fold to finance the interest on the crazy deficits.

#76 Don Guillermo on 04.12.20 at 5:11 pm

#51 Westcdn on 04.12.20 at 3:54 pm

I used to listen to Marianne Faithfull to sooth my soul…
Working Class Hero
********************************************
Here’s another soothing one you might enjoy. A Trinidadian friend just sent it to me. “Heal the World – Renegades” played by pan players from all over the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeWz8R0MyYw

#77 Sail Away on 04.12.20 at 5:14 pm

#57 Heloguy on 04.12.20 at 4:01 pm

What I take from this pandemic is investing should not have any emotion surrounding it. A million or even 10 million deaths, in the great scheme of things means nothing to the world as a whole. A saying we had in the military is, If a turnip falls off the truck, go get another turnip…. We are all just turnips.

———————–

Haha, yep. It’s only the individual turnips that think they’re important.

And… they’re not. The sooner that’s accepted, the easier life is.

#78 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 04.12.20 at 5:16 pm

Some doctors might be of some help if you need surgery. However, if doctors had their way, they would put the entire world under quarantine for two years, and then never lift it. But the American economy was not made to be shut down. A famous, healthy, wealthy, wise and incredibly stable genius once Tweeted that, “THE CURE CANNOT BE WORSE (by far) THAN THE PROBLEM!”

It seems only prudent to maintain a healthy skepticism towards doctors, who are no longer content to kill untold numbers of people with their unwashed hands, and unborn babies with their blood lust, but now want to kill off the entire economy to demonstrate their power to do harm.

While diligently searching (with DuckDuckGo – “The search engine that doesn’t track you.”) for any relevant information at all related in any way at all to that Chinese virus from Wuhan (sometimes referred to as COVID-19), I came across this wonderful poetic wisdom from the past:

POEMS AGAINST DOCTORS by HUMBERT WOLFE (1885-1940)

THE doctors are a frightful race.
I can’t see how they have the face
to go on practising their base
profession; but in any case
I mean to put them in their place.

THEIR AVARICE

THE doctor lives by chicken pox,
by measles, and by mumps.
He keeps a microbe in a box
and cheers him when he jumps

at unsuspecting children, who
have two important nurses;
but if it bounds where less than two
are kept, he simply curses.

His greed is such that though you ache
in every limb, be sure
if there is nothing else to take,
he’ll take your temperature.

And if at first he can’t succeed,
he has another try,
and takes your pulse. Some people plead
“The man must live!” But why?

THEIR IGNORANCE

AND then besides. It makes me boil
the way he snarls “Cod Liver Oil”
in a loud tone, or even louder
“I think we’ll try a soothing powder.”

Powder be blowed! Do you suppose
that any Doctor really knows
where powders go when they are taken,
why medicine bottles should be shaken —
or what’s the matter with your lung
by making faces at your tongue!

Of course he can’t. The truth is that
he doesn’t know what he is at,
but must say something or another
to satisfy your anxious mother,
who never is content until
his medicines make you really ill.

The thing to do is to be firm,
and tell the creature he’s a worm,
and, when he breaks into a stammer,
smash all the bottles with a hammer,
mix pills and powders, and then stir
the mess with the thermometer.

Next leave your bed, and order crates
of almond-paste and chocolates,
plum-cake and various kinds of peels,
eat them before and after meals.

And as for diet, swallow jam on
hot buttered toast with pounds of salmon,
a lemon-squash with straws to suck its
sugar, and water-ice in buckets.

And, last of all, when he is ill,
with thwarted spite send him your bill.

————————————————–
————————————————–

HUMBERT WOLFE

OTHER men have written worse
than the author of this verse,
but at least they had the wit
not to go, and publish it.

————————————————–

#79 BC_Doc on 04.12.20 at 5:20 pm

Owe me $10k and can’t pay? You’ve got a problem.

Owe me $1m and can’t pay? I’ve got a problem.

Banks and landlords have a big problem.

#80 BlueAngel on 04.12.20 at 5:23 pm

“Witness the fact over five million people have applied for the emergency monthly pogey of two grand. They lacked the resources to survive four weeks without help. Yikes.” – Garth

Even if I have financial resources to last for years, I applied for the Canadian emergency fund because I am technically unemployed. this money will be used later to help me pay my taxes when the next government has to cut services and raise taxes to repay this orgy of money that it distributes at will. I am entitled to it, I take it! Those who already paid no taxes will receive more and will not have to repay a cent !!

Oh Canada. – Garth

#81 Free markets are gone on 04.12.20 at 5:24 pm

In just weeks, policymakers have become an unprecedented backstop for private-sector credit markets. We are now in a bi-polar world of financial repression with artificially low financial volatility. The impact on FX volatility is very negative. The relentless global liquidity trap means that exchange rates have become a key instrument for central banks. Policymakers are well on track now to selling infinite amounts of their currencies. This is already resulting in “beggar thy neighbour” policies. In the coming months we will see the Canadian dollar becoming a long overdue victim of this, I expect it to drop to 60 cents to the USD. I, for one, in February liquidated most of my portfolio and have beeen sitting is USDs since then. Up already by 15 percent annualized!

#82 Canuck on 04.12.20 at 5:24 pm

The flow of credit is already starting to slow down. Scotia dealer finance, the branch of the bank that does auto, RV and Marine loans have gone to the dealership network this past week advising they have reduced TDS ratio’s anywhere from 5-10%.

C rated credit won’t likely get any credit at all. C+ is on the bubble for getting approved. Maxed A&B won’t be getting anymore either.

The other lenders won’t be far behind.

#83 Flop... on 04.12.20 at 5:26 pm

Are lives in danger in Vancouver?

People have voted with their feet, a resounding no.

Every park packed, do you really think people would go outside to work on their suntan if they thought it would cost them their lives?

People are vain here, but not that vain.

If the government wants to full-on nanny state why not drop off a box of processed food once a week, and a box of fresh produce to each residence twice a week?

Is it a crises or not, make up your minds.

As far as the goody handouts, I have a theory as to why it is so popular, so accepted, so early on in the race.

Besides the whole 170% debt thing, people have been slaving away to pay off the mortgage, or rent for that matter, and are probably burnt out after the last little while serving these costs in places like Toronto and Vancouver.

The easy solution, spend some time at home, out with the kids, going for a drive.

Instead of sweating bullets, the government is allowing all these people to have subsidized staycations, with little thought seemingly being given on what to do when the piper comes around…

M45BC

#84 BrianT on 04.12.20 at 5:32 pm

#29-Seb-LOL that is a good one-we don’t need no stinking constitution here (the latest poll is 72% hold that sentiment) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OcM23Hbs5U

#85 Nonplused on 04.12.20 at 5:41 pm

“So stop this yammering about a debt jubilee, kids. It’ll be exactly the opposite.”

“You shall count off seven Sabbaths of years, seven times seven years; and there shall be to you the days of seven Sabbaths of years, even forty-nine years. Then you shall sound the loud trumpet on the tenth day of the seventh month. On the Day of Atonement you shall sound the trumpet throughout all your land. You shall make the fiftieth year holy, and proclaim liberty throughout the land to all its inhabitants. It shall be a jubilee to you; and each of you shall return to his own property, and each of you shall return to his family. That fiftieth year shall be a jubilee to you. In it you shall not sow, neither reap that which grows of itself, nor gather from the undressed vines. For it is a jubilee; it shall be holy to you. You shall eat of its increase out of the field. In this Year of Jubilee each of you shall return to his property.” – Leviticus 25:8–13

I’m not sure the concept of a “Jubilee” applies to mortgages and credit cards. It was more of a slavery and land thing if I read that right.

Anyway, like a great many other socialist ideas a “debt Jubilee” is a wonderful sounding but difficult to imagine idea. Who’s debts would be forgiven? Governments? Businesses? Mortgages? Student loans? And what about the people that currently hold all that debt in their retirement portfolios who just got shafted big time? What about the people who don’t have mortgages? Do they get a free house too?

A debt Jubilee would simply be impossible to implement without completely destroying the economy. It would be better to just continue using bankruptcy for those debts that cannot be paid. It’s really not the worst thing in the world to go bankrupt. Sometimes it offers relief.

#86 Dominoes Lining Up on 04.12.20 at 5:42 pm

Dominoes, hammers, they all have loud potential impacts.

I worry also about businesses that are seasonal facing up to realities that are time-sensitive and may force dramatic decisions upon them. This is now about to happen in real time.

What will happen to summer camps (and the plans of parents) in the weeks ahead, for example, if they cannot get bookings by June? What about all kinds of recreational activities and facilities? Spring auto sales? Food production and gardening? (Got some desperate ‘tree trimmer’ flyers stuck on my door this weekend)

Will time-sensitive and seasonal businesses out of desperation choose bankruptcy? What about people trying to dump real estate outside of the big markets?

Will, perhaps, some choose more sketchy alternatives?

Here’s one big seasonal farming business that’s just gone up in flames, being investigated by police as “suspicious”:

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/04/12/police-investigating-suspicious-fire-at-algoma-orchards-in-newcastle/

I am in no way saying the owners committed arson. But the police think someone may have, obviously.

Could we be on the cusp of epic insurance scams across the country and the world? Cottage owners (who are not even welcome now to come visit, according to local municipalities) perhaps choosing to burn down the cabin rather than sell it at a lower price?

So many dominoes may be about to come down in close succession if this is not managed well.

#87 Habbit on 04.12.20 at 5:42 pm

#49 keep your rent Kindly go suck your thumb somewhere and be quiet goof

#88 ivan on 04.12.20 at 5:43 pm

Do retired people qualify for any emergency funds?

#89 Wrk.dover on 04.12.20 at 5:45 pm

#237 MF on 04.12.20 at 10:46 am
“I think we can kick the can down the road on all this debt for a decade at least. Yes we have a lot of debt outstanding but I see interest rates remaining low for a long time so we should be able to service it. But I do believe one day we’ll have to deal with all this debt and I see a potential global restructuring of the debt. – Ryan L”

-What’s the plan for us who are saving for retirement and will be in the market during that time?

10 years is not that long for economies and markets.

Any thoughts?

——————————————–

Once upon a time retirees lived on interest too.

All the king’s horses and all the King’s men couldn’t put that together again in eleven years post 2008, because they thought growing the ‘market’ 15%/year was cooler than restoring normal. (hint: they could make money without having money, unlike needing money with which to collect interest on.)

Don’t expect this new situation to ever be sorted out, if they couldn’t fix that one.

P.S. Look at shipping stats for so far this year, 2008 isn’t fixed yet except for being papered over by Trump tax cuts for the rich.

#90 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 5:51 pm

“If the government wants to full-on nanny state why not drop off a box of processed food once a week, and a box of fresh produce to each residence twice a week?”

Canada dumps milk, America hoards cheese.
https://psmag.com/economics/what-will-the-us-government-do-with-1-4-billion-pounds-of-cheese

#91 rookie57 on 04.12.20 at 5:53 pm

Whoever coined the phrase “when the tide goes out you see who is naked” was spot on. All these people who can’t make ends meet when the SHTF over a relatively short time frame. SHEESH. I have to give my head a shake to just take it in.

#92 Flop... on 04.12.20 at 5:59 pm

Saw a guy wearing this t-shirt the other day.

Blue Collar versus Everybody, printed on the front.

I should probably get one in times like these.

Supplied by the aptly named Troll Clothing Company.

Turns out you can get just about anything printed on them in the same format.

Flop versus Arthritis was available.

Garth Turner versus Ottawa was sold out…

M45BC

https://trollcoclothing.com/products/blue-collar-vs-everybody-tee-black

#93 Reynolds753 on 04.12.20 at 6:00 pm

#25, #36, auskirby604

“I’d guess 25% of people in our DT West End Van apt didn’t pay rent for Apr and won’t until we have to.
____________________________________________

Evidently not a rule of law sort of person are we? You know, sign a contract fulfill your legal obligation. Or, perhaps, this is full on troll.

#94 Property Accountant on 04.12.20 at 6:01 pm

Markets went up because FED & other central banks, including our BOC, started Quantitative Easing (again) and are buying government and corporate bonds from the markets as well as mortgages from the institutional banks, with freshly mint digital money that miraculously appears on yours and theirs bank accounts. Money that NEVER EXISTED BEFORE.
US stimulus package alone is over TWICE the size of TARP program in 2009.

No wonder market prices are going up, if NEW printed money is in the game. Government as a player is keeping the market up.

Government is the cure…. and we thought less government is better. NOT ANY MORE.

#95 Flop... on 04.12.20 at 6:09 pm

Flop Sucks! t-shirts have just started building up inventory nicely, after nervous Vancouver developers and home-owners made a run on them during the 2017/2018 infamous Pink Snow Project.

My wife bought one…

M45BC

#96 Marco on 04.12.20 at 6:14 pm

Markets may well have gotten ahead of themselves and will retreat,

Just wait for second quarter results and then buy. Fall attack of virus will be muzzled.
And you’ll never pay your debts except if steady jobs and corporate pensions come back like in boomer times. So no worries. Live your life, consume and help “economy” to recover.
Oh, yes, say thanks to President Putin for oil break.

#97 the Jaguar on 04.12.20 at 6:19 pm

omg, a third post. I am verklempt. But this is a really interesting perspective not just on Covid, but really more on geopolitical relations, China, going forward, etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XzQ8wcVmj4

#98 cristian on 04.12.20 at 6:22 pm

About landlords. I happen o be one I own 18 units in 2 buildings in the Beaches\Upper Beaches area in Toronto. Everybody paid ( I had one tenant asking me for 2 days delay). So as usual RE is local and if you own in a good location you have good tenants all will pass. You also need to have a cash cushion as a landlord for stuff like what is happening now .. Otherwise you are an amateur landlord sorry to say and you will be in big pain

#99 Stone on 04.12.20 at 6:27 pm

#89 Habbit on 04.12.20 at 5:42 pm
#49 keep your rent Kindly go suck your thumb somewhere and be quiet goof

———

I don’t think that is their intent. On the topic of intent, I think theirs is effective. Look at your reaction. It says everything.

#100 Barb on 04.12.20 at 6:27 pm

Happy Easter to Garth, Dorothy and Bandit.

“…in a month or two.”
That’s very encouraging.
Because we want to believe it.

How much is that doggie in the window (cart)?
Adorable photo…despite my great love of Shepherds.

#101 MF on 04.12.20 at 6:28 pm

46 the Jaguar on 04.12.20 at 3:27

An absolute ton of the houses and condos in the gta are rental units for students or or foreign workers. I’d wager around 40-50% or more (seriously).

People living in homes for their family will do whatever it takes (if they can) to stay there, but all these rentals that have totally warped the market?

MF

#102 kc on 04.12.20 at 6:31 pm

#93 rookie57 on 04.12.20 at 5:53 pm

Whoever coined the phrase “when the tide goes out you see who is naked” was spot on. All these people who can’t make ends meet when the SHTF over a relatively short time frame. SHEESH. I have to give my head a shake to just take it in.

XXXX

Warren Buffett

#103 theoryAndPractice on 04.12.20 at 6:34 pm

CBC.ca: Health Canada says rapid blood test for COVID-19 remains under review.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/health-canada-rapid-blood-tests-under-review-1.5529590
Made-in-Canada test being sold to U.S. but can’t yet be used here

Why?

#104 Wrk.dover on 04.12.20 at 6:37 pm

Want a covid music title?

Infected, by Teenage Head

Canadian content: neat guitar end.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdhL92mO6k4

#105 Barb on 04.12.20 at 6:38 pm

#25 auskirby604

“…remember we didn’t ask to be brought into this world, we’re trying to get by and it’s not our fault that this #[email protected] took place.”

——————————-

Ah…a much-needed Trojan advertorial.

#106 MF on 04.12.20 at 6:39 pm

#35 Stoph on 04.12.20 at 2:53

I saw that. I don’t blame that couple. There have been years of favourable policies towards to home ownership, and it doesn’t look like it will be changing much. Real estate is also seen as the only investment thanks to a very effective media campaign, fear of all other investments like stocks (which may be warranted as we have seen), as well as plain human emotion (I want that now).

Why wouldn’t people expect to be bailed out?

There hasn’t been real risk/reward in real estate since 2008.

MF

#107 Drinking on 04.12.20 at 6:43 pm

Happy Easter all!

Dolce will appreciate this! Andrea Bocelli Easter performance for those of us that appreciate the love he portrays to all of us with a gift that is a true blessing to humanity. Stay safe!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huTUOek4LgU

#108 MF on 04.12.20 at 6:49 pm

#91 Wrk.dover on 04.12.20 at 5:45 pm

The link kc posted last blog entry was pretty frightening for anyone who listened to it.

Commenter basically said what we knew:

-Debt levels are extremely high. Here in canada and around the world.
-right now all these bonds being purchased by central banks are artificially lowering rates, making the debt levels manageable (sort of).
-other than central banks (who have now started even buying stocks) the credit market would be very different and rates would sky rocket…big problem for all this debt.
-central banks can’t do this forever.

He begged the question: how do we get out of this?

No one seems to have an answer. But what is clear is in the next decade (or less now) there will be a massive credit crisis. Real estate, stocks, bonds, everything is at risk of imploding.

For people like myself with a longer than ten year time frame…what is our plan?

I asked Ryan or Doug a few times but didn’t get an answer. It’s okay. The post was late and they are busy. We’re just lucky to have them post. Maybe a future topic Garth?

MF

#109 Doug t on 04.12.20 at 6:53 pm

#49

You should move to a communist country – find out how lovely it is !

#110 Nonplused on 04.12.20 at 6:54 pm

“Last week major banks began making it known to buy a property, rent it out and be a landlord, you’d better have cash for the 20% down payment. No borrowing from a line of credit. No gifted money. No using plastic. In the grand scheme of things, this seems like a small change. But it’s not. This is what your mom would call a harbinger.”

This probably should have always been the case. And it is probably only the first of a great number of changes to our economy and our attitudes coming down the pike. But I am becoming increasingly convinced that covid might be the spark that started the fire but it didn’t grow the forest.

Let’s face it, we had a whole pile of unsustainable problems before covid that most readers of this blog are already familiar with, but I’m bored so I’ll list a few.

– debt levels
– unsustainable debt growth
– lack of savings
– excessively high taxation
– wage inequality
– inflation
– unsustainable population growth
– resource depletion
– globalization/job outsourcing/automation
– pollution
– extinction/loss of habitat
– topsoil erosion
– congestion on the roads

and the list goes on. At some time or another we were going to have to change the way we are doing things. Covid will be a snowflake that starts the avalanche.

In addition to this several social trends have been building that we all know about but have been slow to accept due to inertia. Some include:

– working from home
– studying from home/home education
– reduced work hours
– online commerce
– self reliance/prepping
– home gardening
– fuel efficiency
– alternative fuels
– buying local
– sustainability
– environmental protection
– saving the bees and other animals
– de-urbanization

How this is all going to work out is anyone’s guess, but usually the world ends up a better place. Sure, many mourned the fall of Rome, but many also celebrated. I envision that the “age of empire” is ending, and things will become a lot more local. In the new world you won’t depend on one country (China) to produce 90% of the pharmaceuticals you need. Multinationals won’t be putting all the local businesses out of business. Walmart might still be around but they will be selling a lot more stuff that was produced locally. Small towns will repopulate and a sense of community will return. Far away places like Ottawa will have a lot less say in local politics.

Of course I could be just dreaming but let’s hope. We have to make changes anyway so let’s make positive ones.

#111 $arcastic Serious on 04.12.20 at 6:59 pm

Pay your rent, buy a Hummer, drive 1000 miles every day and help increase oil and land prices!

Crude oil futures extended losses in overnight trading, on investor disappointment after OPEC agreed on a smaller-than-expected cut in production. OPEC and allied oil-producing countries agreed to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day for May-June, below the initial proposed 10 million bdp cut.

#112 Sail Away on 04.12.20 at 7:01 pm

I went swimming naked today when the tide went out. It was fantastic! It was surprising to see the hordes of Canadians already doing the same. We had a big happy crowd of low-tide skinnydippers.

We’re doing it again tomorrow if anyone’s interested? Low tide is 4 pm. Join the crowd!

#113 Saskatoon on 04.12.20 at 7:03 pm

#49
I agree that the money provided by CERB is not enough to cover costs for some people in Toronto.

I don’t think it needs to cover the costs. People should have money saved up for rainy days. I recognize that there are special circumstances that cause individuals to be in tight financial situations such as:

There may be individuals who had to leave their parents home after high school graduation and started paying rent in a city like Toronto while working full time at a low paying job or in school with a loan. I feel for those individuals as this will be difficult for them with only $2000 gross per month.

I personally would love to give those people more money!

I think changes need occur if you live in a city that’s expensive and can’t save money because of that. Move somewhere cheaper for 2-5 years and save. I know it’s not that simple but what I’m trying to get at is this:

People should first save money for rainy days. I was lucky to have my parents not kick me out right after graduating university. Instead of renting an apartment or buying a home I saved everything I could before I rented a nice 1 bedroom for $1100 in Saskatoon. I saved $31000 (after taxes) of my $57000 gross salary while living with them for 1 year. I moved out after knowing I had an emergency fund.

What I’m trying to get across quickly here is that there are lots of people who can save but don’t because they want the nice house, nice car, nice clothes, nice social life. I wish those people saved for 1-2 years and thought of the future a little bit. I personally know a lot of people who could spend less money easily but don’t.

#114 ww1 on 04.12.20 at 7:04 pm

#94 Flop… on 04.12.20 at 5:59 pm
Saw a guy wearing this t-shirt the other day.

Blue Collar versus Everybody, printed on the front.

I should probably get one in times like these.

Supplied by the aptly named Troll Clothing Company.

Turns out you can get just about anything printed on them in the same format.

Flop versus Arthritis was available.

Garth Turner versus Ottawa was sold out…

M45BC

https://trollcoclothing.com/products/blue-collar-vs-everybody-tee-black

Perhaps not too surprisingly, all the large sizes are sold out.

#115 mark on 04.12.20 at 7:04 pm

I find it hard to believe they’ll pull up the drawbridge on credit. It’s the only trick they’ve used for 25 years. Governments everywhere will be coming up with madcap schemes to induce people to borrow. Your old fav the 40 year mortgage might come back as the 50 year mortgage.

#116 Leftover on 04.12.20 at 7:05 pm

Just got off the phone with my banker daughter. Some highlights:

– Many (50%?) retail branch closures will be permanent

– Banks aren’t too exposed to developers but secondary mortgage companies and credit unions are and they’re in panic mode because most in-progress projects are toast

– Credit rules are so tight that bank employees themselves can’t qualify. First time ever

The biggest future change will be credit; who gets it and how it’s assessed. Big drop in loan-to-value rates, HELOC’s are going to get squeezed and interest rates are heading up across the board, not just fixed rate mortgages.

Thinking of cashing in on that house? Too late…

#117 Nonplused on 04.12.20 at 7:05 pm

#96 Property Accountant on 04.12.20 at 6:01 pm

Markets went up because FED & other central banks, including our BOC, started Quantitative Easing (again) and are buying government and corporate bonds from the markets as well as mortgages from the institutional banks, with freshly mint digital money that miraculously appears on yours and theirs bank accounts. Money that NEVER EXISTED BEFORE.
US stimulus package alone is over TWICE the size of TARP program in 2009.

No wonder market prices are going up, if NEW printed money is in the game. Government as a player is keeping the market up.

Government is the cure…. and we thought less government is better. NOT ANY MORE.

——————–

Government (central banks in particular) cannot change the value of real things and labor relative to each other, they can only change the value of their currency. Any support they add to a market to inflate prices is temporary and false. It doesn’t add value (but it does stave off insolvency by inflating away debt). Inflation will be the result.

Money isn’t real. It belongs in the same category as math, or maybe measurement. You can’t make the 2×4 bigger by making the inches smaller. Now it’s a 3×6, but it is still the same size.

#118 TurnerNation on 04.12.20 at 7:07 pm

No wonder our elite rulers want us staying inside.
Look around your neighborhood. An economic and social attack like no other. Not even in a WW. In every country.
Stores boarded up, no culture, long lines for food – forced shortage. Food banks running dry. Beautiful parks, untouchable. Elderly left abandoned, left to die.
The State might consider them “burdens” anyway, it would not be the first time in history.
The real horror lies behind closed doors. People under lock down with what may be abusive spouses. Kids in isolation. Fret over job loss, unable to apply for another. The State has virtually taken over/blocked the means of production in many.
Self-harm? Plenty. It can take many forms.
Starting at screens, re-wiring brains – to authority.
Never forget who did this to you.

The good news? Hey it will end in months. If only you co–operate with authorities. Soon. You aren’t trying hard enough they will say. Soon. Keep trying. Soon.
False hope. These are proven tactics.

#119 YouKnowWho on 04.12.20 at 7:08 pm

I’m done thinking about it. I have the solution we can implement immediately for this Covid-19 crisis.

65 and older need to stay in self-isolation. The stores belong to them before 10AM. No one else can shop. No exercising for the young before 10AM either. The compromised, weekend, at-risk, need to stay in self-isolation. They can all have priority for masks, sanitizer, gloves, etc.

Everyone else – BACK TO IT! Go out there. Mingle with each other. Hold hands. Hug. Build the herd immunity. It will take a few months. Law needs to be passed that Covid-19 is treated same as regular Flu for liability purposes. No crazy liability risk for anyone because they sneezed. No closing of stores for weeks because someone got it. Just like with Flu. No difference.

We’ll be done with it in no time. By July we’ll have herd immunity in Canada and we can be ahead of EVERYONE!. The sooner we start, the sooner we’re done.

LET’S GO!

You think Justin and the news media can undo the fear and germaphobia they’ve instilled over past few months?
They did it, they need to undo it.

To begin with, Justin would need to use a different dramatic tone of voice to the one he’s been using over past weeks. You know, the one where he sounds like he’s talking to use like we’re a 3 year old child? Personally, it’s starting to really grid on me. He sounds to me like some type of male Alexa computer voice generator.

#120 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.12.20 at 7:11 pm

#105 theoryAndPractice on 04.12.20 at 6:34 pm sez:

“CBC.ca: Health Canada says rapid blood test for COVID-19 remains under review.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/health-canada-rapid-blood-tests-under-review-1.5529590
Made-in-Canada test being sold to U.S. but can’t yet be used here

Why?”
———————————————
Because it would be discovered that way more people have the virus than first thought with little or no symptoms which would therefore vastly lower the fatality rate. Thus the fear could no longer be stoked.

I’ll leave it up to you as to the reasons they wish to do this.

#121 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 7:13 pm

“Evidently not a rule of law sort of person are we? You know, sign a contract fulfill your legal obligation.”

I’d be OK if we could all be psychopaths, or we were all expected to fulfil our obligations if possible. The former wouldn’t be pleasant, but it would be equitable, in a warped way. But I really hate that the little folk are exhorted to keep their promises while corporate psychopathy is tolerated without a peep. Cheesecake Factory refused to pay any of its rents across the board. Canadian airlines say “so sorry we cancelled your flight and no refunds, but here’s a voucher good for 24 months” — and the government backs them up. Hustlers trying to resell cleaning supplies are vilified, but corporate boards who approve big management bonuses days before bankruptcy? Nary a peep.

As a capitalist, I say God’s in his Heaven and all’s Right with the World, but as a human it’s enough to make me weep.

Nobody is saying “let’s all share the burden” — save senior levels of government — and abuse is heaped on them for it. If we aren’t complaining about a piddling thousand or two going to somebody else, we’re moaning about completely hypothetical future tax increases.

“Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me.”

#122 Spectacle on 04.12.20 at 7:20 pm

105 theoryAndPractice on 04.12.20 at 6:34 pm
CBC.ca: Health Canada says rapid blood test for COVID-19 remains under review.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/health-canada-rapid-blood-tests-under-review-1.5529590
Made-in-Canada test being sold to U.S. but can’t yet be used here

Why?

—-Oh oh, somebody thinks the sock coward cares —

Do not think the current government and His ( unless he identifies as something else…) puppeteer team actually cares about Canadian well being ! Nay nay.

That humility, care, responsibility ended with Garth Turners tenure.

They pretty much have a selfish, greedy Agenda now. Sad & pathetic. Forget about Him/her Doing anything other than trying for a dictatorship of sorts to keep wealth & Power. Read below, now that was close!!

Imagetorontosun.com
Web results
OLIVER: Trudeau just tried to overturn the election results

#123 NFN_NLN on 04.12.20 at 7:26 pm

#73 Dolce Vita on 04.12.20 at 4:49 pm

PS:

Italia opening up the economy for a lot of workers and companies April 14th.

Where are you getting that information:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/italy-remain-lockdown-3-200410232013521.html

#124 David Pylyp on 04.12.20 at 7:26 pm

Landlords currently hold units based on market value increases in price. Rents generally do not cover the Purchase price, maintenance and property taxes.

If their tenants are non paying ( non performing assets ) the landlords will sell off / with or without tenants in place. This will flatten prices if not create a decline.

Toronto is going to be over supplied for condos.

Commercial Tenants will be worse off.

Cheap credit that kept all ships afloat has sailed.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#125 Shawn Allen on 04.12.20 at 7:27 pm

The Money is Where?

#31 Mark on 04.12.20 at 2:47 pm said:

I think there is a huge difference between people using CERB because their job is no longer paying vs. what you describe as people needing money after only two weeks out of work.

The government shut the economy down, money is there, why not use it.

Wouldn’t you expect people to prudently access financial tools that are available?

************************************
Agreed whoever is eligible will take it even if they don’t strictly need it and who can blame them? Free money. And right people lost income because of government action.

But you say the money is”there” ? Where’s that? Actually what was “there” was the ability for the government to borrow at extremely low rates.

If the government can borrow at like 1% and if rates stay low then amazingly there might be little harm from the debt binge. It will never be paid back but if it can be serviced forever at 1% then it may be no big deal.

But surely interest rates WILL rise at some point? A $200 billion 1% loan that rolls over at say 3% starts to get expensive.

#126 Shawn Allen on 04.12.20 at 7:28 pm

P.S. I guess Mark just meant the government made the cash available so why not take it. Agreed.

#127 Sail Away on 04.12.20 at 7:30 pm

#110 MF on 04.12.20 at 6:49 pm

For people like myself with a longer than ten year time frame…what is our plan?

I asked Ryan or Doug a few times

———————

Everybody needs to have their own plan.

My current plan is to take ever larger stakes in critical public infrastructure while concentrating the engineering business contracts more and more on all levels of government to take advantage of stimulus. My two companies are in line right now for $80k no-interest stimulus loans with $20k forgiveable plus 75% salary replacement. No-interest gov’t loans are going straight to the markets, and $20k is pure free $, haha.

The best way to deploy cash is still be determined. I’ll probably talk about it more… ;-)

#128 John in Mtl on 04.12.20 at 7:32 pm

Thank You, Garth, for all the wisdom and good vibes!

You paint a grim picture of a possible future but one that reflects the coming reality. All this credit house of cards was bound to fall over some day, and the day has come for those who over-extended themselves and did not plan for the inevitable setbacks that happen in life.

Following your wise words and doing what was a logical course of action, this is a storm that I can easily weather, provided I come out of this alive!

For the life of me, I cannot envision renters (of which I am one) not being responsible and not fulfilling their obligation – the owner furnishes you a place to call home, and in return you pay for this service. How on earth can some people be so dishonourable in our society of plenty?

#129 VicPaul on 04.12.20 at 7:33 pm

#106 Wrk.dover on 04.12.20 at 6:37 pm
Want a covid music title?

Infected, by Teenage Head

Canadian content: neat guitar end.

*********

Wicked! Thanks Wrk.d – this brought me back to about 14 years-old…and my sweetheart Carla…god, she was magnificent!

M56BC

#130 Frank on 04.12.20 at 7:33 pm

#49: Keep your rent

Life sucks when you play the victim. Put as much time in your career as you do in your long rambling posts and you will be able to pay your rent like a self respecting adult.

#131 fishman on 04.12.20 at 7:34 pm

Ah Sail Away! Nothing like a little confirmation bias to brighten my Easter. I’ve been pounding the cash from terms, maples & savings accounts into hard assets & critical infrastructure of my company by way of shareholder loans. Three months now. Hoping another month & half & 50 maples will get me up to & in position at the starting line.
If not now, when? You must be a student of history & Lenin, (by the way a history teacher). He said there are times when decades go by & nothing much changes, & then weeks go by & the world changes more than in the preceding decades.

#132 Freedom First on 04.12.20 at 7:35 pm

“Happy Easter” To Everyone!

#133 kc on 04.12.20 at 7:36 pm

#110 MF on 04.12.20 at 6:49 pm

No one seems to have an answer. But what is clear is in the next decade (or less now) there will be a massive credit crisis.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

We are here now…… People are just now starting to see the mess we are in. Less than 2 years is what I feel will be the turning point.

Govs. can’t paper our way out of this mess without 1 of 2 things…
hyperinflation, or god forbid, ww3.

The debt bubble is just to large and when the over night money markets crash, it will be ugly.

#134 jamie on 04.12.20 at 7:38 pm

Excellent post…will it ever get to the point where savers and financially responsible folks will be rewarded again? or is the mantra gone forever? cause other than having less stress right now, savers and people who live within their means are still not being rewarded…ultra low interest rates for pretty much ever…and our taxes are gonna get ballooned in order to bail out those who were irresponsible…it’s almost getting to the point of “who cares? why not just spend stupidly and borrow to the hilt? the government is gonna take it from you if you don’t”…normal economic fluxes are not left to happen anymore…central banks diddle with rates…Feds bail people out who are foolish…what’s next? debt forgiveness? UBI?

#135 Terry on 04.12.20 at 7:40 pm

Down we go into the rabbit hole! There has never been a successful Corona virus vaccine and it’s almost a certainty there will never be one. The air is the air and there is nothing that can be done about it. Open up the economies around the world and just let everybody get back to their lives. Over time almost everyone in the world will get this virus. Most will survive to live another day. Many will have no symptoms at all. Many more will struggle but get through it. Some will struggle and be damaged afterwords but they will still get through it. A few will unfortunately draw the short straw and will expire. Life is difficult, stressful, full of angst, fear, guilt, pain, hate, sorrow, Hope, Joy, Happiness, Faith & Love. Thats life folks…………..for good or bad each day is unfolding as it should.

#136 YouKnowWho on 04.12.20 at 7:41 pm

Vince McMahon – both middle fingers high up to Covid-19!

The most real sport in the world is back this week. Probably sponsored by Corona too.

https://www.wrestlinginc.com/news/2020/04/backstage-news-on-why-wwe-is-returning-to-live-tv-shows-669146/?_gl=1*19ukgsv*_ga*YW1wLUNjdGR5ZzJ3ejlCWE9QTG14N0s4ZHlGNWRjWGRMZ0JhSG82eHhMX2l4dkVwbGNUVm05RlZydUVhYzVqYl9wdC0.

Respect Mr. McMahon.

#137 Sail Away on 04.12.20 at 7:44 pm

#134 fishman on 04.12.20 at 7:34 pm

Ah Sail Away! Nothing like a little confirmation bias to brighten my Easter. I’ve been pounding the cash from terms, maples & savings accounts into hard assets & critical infrastructure of my company by way of shareholder loans. Three months now. Hoping another month & half & 50 maples will get me up to & in position at the starting line.

If not now, when? You must be a student of history & Lenin, (by the way a history teacher). He said there are times when decades go by & nothing much changes, & then weeks go by & the world changes more than in the preceding decades.

——————–

Yes. Great time to prepare. Is your company existing and eligible for the stimulus loan/income subsidy? Or startup?

Sole shareholder or several? Can the company take advantage of this climate?

#138 Abc123 on 04.12.20 at 7:54 pm

The fact that 5 million people have applied for pogey of 2 grand a month does not prove that they don’t have the resources to survive for four weeks without pogey it just means that people will take advantage of anything that is handed out for free.

Perhaps a little less drama would go a long way .

#139 Sail Away on 04.12.20 at 7:57 pm

#120 TurnerNation on 04.12.20 at 7:07 pm

Look around your neighborhood. An economic and social attack like no other. Not even in a WW. In every country.

Stores boarded up, no culture, long lines for food – forced shortage. Food banks running dry. Beautiful parks, untouchable. Elderly left abandoned, left to die.

The real horror lies behind closed doors. People under lock down with what may be abusive spouses. Kids in isolation. Fret over job loss, unable to apply for another. The State has virtually taken over/blocked the means of production in many.

Self-harm? Plenty. It can take many forms.
Starting at screens, re-wiring brains – to authority.

———————

Alright, Dystopia. We all live in the world we make, and honestly… yours sucks.

You’re welcome to join my utopia anytime. No Debbie-downerism allowed.

#140 Drill Baby Drill on 04.12.20 at 8:04 pm

Many many home owners are about to get a life lesson in mortgage financing and compound interest. Do not sit back and let the principle ride for six months you will never come out from under it.

#141 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 8:05 pm

“But you say the money is”there” ? Where’s that? Actually what was “there” was the ability for the government to borrow at extremely low rates. If the government can borrow at like 1% …”

As time goes on, I’m having more and more trouble believing this.

If our government borrows $100B for ten years at 1%, and at the same time our central bank is buying $100B of govvies to support the market, was the $100B in cash actually out there for the government to borrow?

Similarly, if the Fed has to inject hundreds of billions into the repo market to keep it from collapsing, what does that mean? Repo isn’t just non-financial corporations pawning the silver to tide them over payday… It seems there are a lot of hedge funds out there willing to own $200B in ten year treasuries at 1%… as long as they can borrow $190B of overnight money at 0.05% to finance it. And the Fed will print if necessary to keep the plates spinning.

So I don’t see government borrowing money so much as just plain printing it. It seems half of us sees money as something in limited supply (as it was, sort of, when backed by gold), and half of us sees it as just an arbitrary number in a computer, to be incremented when necessary.

The people who think about this all day and publish their thoughts (often billionaire hedgies) seem to be in violent disagreement as to how this will play out. Indeed, if they all agreed, I suppose they would trigger whatever comes next.

#142 AGuyInVancouver on 04.12.20 at 8:07 pm

..Ms. Virus quickly proved all those posts about people being a couple of hundred bucks from monthly misery were correct. Witness the fact over five million people have applied for the emergency monthly pogey of two grand. They lacked the resources to survive four weeks without help..
_ _ _
One doesn’t flow from the other. If I was laid off but debt free with cash in the bank, why on earth would I turn down $2,000 in free government money? That doesn’t make sense.

Because you have ethics and self-respect? Oh wait… – Garth

#143 Lindsey McCann on 04.12.20 at 8:12 pm

A few things to think about.  I agree with the goal of getting the economy back on track, however loosening the restrictions on movement and participation in the economy is going to be very challenging when we don’t yet have a) reliable antibody tests, b)  effective treatments. Never mind a vaccine (18 months out). How do you prevent health care workers, care home workers, etc from getting the virus? Who can you allow to work in long term care if you don’t know if they are immune to the virus?
If the goal is herd immunity without this type of test, the social and economic cost is also going to be very high. Currently in the USA, over a period of 10 weeks since the 1st record case of covid 19 in the USA, ~ 22,100 people have died. That is equal to 40 % of the number of Americans that died in the Vietnam war over a period greater than 10 YEARS. 
I don’t see any easy answers to this. 

#144 Wrk.dover on 04.12.20 at 8:19 pm

#110 MF on 04.12.20 at 6:49 pm

For people like myself with a longer than ten year time frame…what is our plan?

———————————————

I’m a 66 year old Toronto raised societal drop out, living deep rural, self sufficient in NS since 86.

If I was younger, I think I’d go squat on an abandoned homestead in Chernobyl. The cancer would set in quicker there.

The frat boys on Wall St. blew your future up their collective nose, while I was handcrafting my existence, with a vast tool collection, the satisfying way.

#145 Smoking Man on 04.12.20 at 8:23 pm

When I came back to Canada in mid Jan, on every channel, every news paper.

The Rail Blockaid. That was it. No other news.

Then boom. Someone snapped their finger nails.

Coronsvirus…..COVID 19

Something is not right here..

#146 Drill Baby Drill on 04.12.20 at 8:29 pm

There is very good news about Kung Flu in Canada. It is starting to abate here in the west (new infections)over the past several days as well as in eastern Canada. We are going to pull out of this in good shape physically. Economically is a different matter cause maybe 60% of the people layed off due to this virus emergency will be called back. Let’s face it our economy Canada wide was overextended.

#147 oh bouy on 04.12.20 at 8:29 pm

@#139 YouKnowWho on 04.12.20 at 7:41 pm
Vince McMahon – both middle fingers high up to Covid-19!

The most real sport in the world is back this week. Probably sponsored by Corona too.
________________________

more theatre than sport

#148 Drill Baby Drill on 04.12.20 at 8:32 pm

All this borrowing that Trudeau is doing will put us in Tax Hell.

#149 It's good t'see that Garth ... on 04.12.20 at 8:33 pm

knows his mighty rivers. And it’s good t’see the mighty Fraser still undammed. What a watershed and what a history … I bet the turkey population is not happy this weekend … stay healthy …

#150 OK, Doomer on 04.12.20 at 8:34 pm

#65 Penny Henny on 04.12.20 at 4:25 pm

I’ve heard it said before, maybe even here, anytime the government is offering free money – Take it.
So whether these folks lacked the resources or not the smart move is to take the money.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

A former business partner once told me that the only way that customers can show you their appreciation is to pay you.

And that the only way you can show your contempt for your government is to take all of their money away from them.

Clean up needed on Aisle T2…

#151 Marco on 04.12.20 at 8:38 pm

#145 AGuyInVancouver on 04.12.20 at 8:07 pm
..Ms. Virus quickly proved all those posts about people being a couple of hundred bucks from monthly misery were correct. Witness the fact over five million people have applied for the emergency monthly pogey of two grand. They lacked the resources to survive four weeks without help..
_ _ _
One doesn’t flow from the other. If I was laid off but debt free with cash in the bank, why on earth would I turn down $2,000 in free government money? That doesn’t make sense.

Because you have ethics and self-respect? Oh wait… – Garth

Well,that was ad hominem…
This is a corporation, no constitution
charter is not that…

#152 Steve French on 04.12.20 at 8:39 pm

Status of Steve-O’s globally B&D, DYI, liquid & sexy portfolio:

– Minus 10.1% since 20 January, 2020.
– Minus 3.0% since 20 June, 2019.

(Yawn. I plan to snooooozzzeee right through all this mayhem….)

#153 Terry on 04.12.20 at 8:41 pm

We are very close everybody……….hungry people with almost nothing will have nothing to lose very shortly. Law and order WILL BREAK DOWN when there is less and less food to eat. Look at how far we have fallen already that nobody saw coming and very few thought could ever happen here. Well, guess what, it’s happening here right now. To ALL politicians EVERYWHERE, open up the economies RIGHT NOW or we will not be coming back from where we are heading! We have weeks maybe days left before this blows up big into everyone’s faces!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-meatpacking-idUSKCN21U0O7?taid=5e935e504dc6720001214804&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

#154 robert james on 04.12.20 at 8:41 pm

Now this is a fine kettle of fish !! Who would of thunk?? https://vancouversun.com/news/covid-19-city-of-vancouver-at-risk-of-bankruptcy-says-mayor/wcm/8fd95f9e-2cd0-4d67-b83d-c19ee6fe284d/?fbclid=IwAR39izIcLWa6uel2L4BTdt2NHeuLDknkhpO

#155 Marco on 04.12.20 at 8:42 pm

#148 Smoking Man on 04.12.20 at 8:23 pm
When I came back to Canada in mid Jan, on every channel, every news paper.

The Rail Blockaid. That was it. No other news.

Then boom. Someone snapped their finger nails.

Coronsvirus…..COVID 19

Something is not right here..

Pise se blockade, bubuleja…

#156 Re-Cowtown on 04.12.20 at 8:45 pm

Re: ethics of taking goverment cash

What are the ethics of Green activists lying and lobbying the Trudeau government to kill off an entire segment of the economy, bankrupt a province and impoverish three generations? And Trudeau doing the electoral math to calculate that listening to the foreign funded Green activists is an election winning strategy?

Just asking.

Next to that, taking some cash from Trudeau under terms that you unquestionably qualify for seems like pin money.

#157 kc on 04.12.20 at 8:47 pm

I live right under the fly way for YVR (vancouver int) airport. no where near it (45 kms). There is usually a solid stream of planes 1 ever 1.5 to 2 minutes, however today out in yard doing spring work and it is completely silent. NOTHING… very eerie … almost apocalyptic silent.

#158 Fused on 04.12.20 at 8:49 pm

#118 Left Over
Genworth and Home Capital Group are on my watch list, waiting for the news stories of “uninformed investors” who can not get their money out of those two and many other private MICs that were paying 8%-10% risk free returns.
They are about to find out about illiquidity risk now, possible run on these companies just like with TP and hand sanitizers

#159 Sold Out on 04.12.20 at 8:59 pm

Hey Garth,

What happens when the houses of those reverse mortgage takers drop 30% in value?

#160 Go Figure on 04.12.20 at 9:00 pm

Today is a fairy tale,

because never before in history has the world financial system operated as a virtual fantasy land completely dislocated from reality.

#161 NoName on 04.12.20 at 9:05 pm

#135 Freedom First on 04.12.20 at 7:35 pm

“Happy Easter” To Everyone!

Happy Easter to you also.

#162 Ronaldo on 04.12.20 at 9:06 pm

#43 akashic record on 04.12.20 at 3:20 pm
It looks like the Democratic Party is ready to drop Biden.
——————————————————————-
He looks like he’s ready to drop any day now. The guy’s losing it.

#163 Buy Low Sell High on 04.12.20 at 9:07 pm

My Landlord is a corporation holding dozens of apartment buildings across the GTA. If I didn’t pay my rent on April 1st (which, by the way, I did pay) then that would be my problem. If, say, a conservative amount or tenants did not elect to pay, amounting to 5~10%, then that would be my Landlord’s problem. I have many questions about may develop into an absolute fiasco.

1. What incentive is there for these tenants to pay if they are secure in the knowledge that Ontario has ceased all evictions?

2. What incentive is there for them to pay if they know that they are already planning to move out in a few months time? In other words, why not just help themselves to several months free rent on their way out
the door.

3. If this turns out to become a Landlord’s problem, i.e. too many tenants decide to withhold rent (whatever that number is) then what is the Landlord to do? Mass applications to the Ontario Rental Tribunal, once it reopens, resulting in mass eviction orders for non payment of rent and the resultant mass termination of leases and ultimate evictions? How many months will this take to evict and subsequently refill the vacant units will qualified tenants.

4. What if Landlords acquiesce and forgive deadbeat tenants the unpaid rent and reset the tenant ledger to zero? What does that mean for the responsible and ethical tenants who paid their rent dutifully thoughout this crisis? Will they be granted to the same rent jubilee as the deadbeats!

Owe a landlord $1,850 and it’s the tenant’s problem, when the landlord is owed $500,000 ~ $1,000,000, it’s the landlord’s problem.

3.

#164 A J on 04.12.20 at 9:19 pm

It’s amazing to me how people totally accepted how broke they were. Living paycheque to paycheque like they could do it for the rest of their lives, and never have to pay the piper. Time to pay up. I think everyone was living in a fantasy land before, and now it’s time for some reality. Life isn’t supposed to be lived by accumulating this much debt. The banks are partly to blame. They never should have allowed people to take out so much. When I closed my car loan, I remember the bank randomly offering me a $50,000 line of credit to keep me as a customer. I literally laughed out loud. Other people though, see that as free money. And think about all the things they can buy. They enslave themselves and now, that piper wants their money. Should we feel bad for people? I guess so, but where’s the personal responsibility? Everyone wants to point their finger in blame at everything and everyone as to why they’re going broke. They should look in the mirror.

#165 Drew Riedstra on 04.12.20 at 9:20 pm

On the go long sentiment: the market can look past the current news only until it steps on the rake and it flips up and knocks it for a loop. We’re rocking and rolling until we’re in the clear so bettin on any clear direction is a crap shoot. Once the financials start rolling in for next quarter, and next quarter….things aren’t going to be looking so rosy in the future. Time to get back in the chinchilla business again . Happy Easter Cowboy!

#166 willworkforpickles on 04.12.20 at 9:21 pm

Despite the calamity at hand stocks are booming.
Therein lies the big con as the banks rub their hands with glee knowing the greater portion of the newly created trillions will be channeled to the big corporations already buying back stock with their own surplus cash. These corps have the thumbs up to do this knowing their current outlays will be replenished with this new money. As the market has done a bounce off the recent bottom largely because of this, the resulting FOMO currently dominating the markets has just about everybody and his little brother who has any cash kicking around filing into (back into) stocks.

#167 Don Guillermo on 04.12.20 at 9:29 pm

#114 Sail Away on 04.12.20 at 7:01 pm
I went swimming naked today when the tide went out. It was fantastic! It was surprising to see the hordes of Canadians already doing the same. We had a big happy crowd of low-tide skinnydippers.
We’re doing it again tomorrow if anyone’s interested? Low tide is 4 pm. Join the crowd!
***********************************
Ahh … Wreck beach. Remember it well.

#168 THE DEBT LOVER on 04.12.20 at 9:36 pm

Here’s how to create and build a LEMONADE STAND business…….

How is it financed??? Four letter word.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEDIj9JBTC8

#169 Math is Hard on 04.12.20 at 9:36 pm

600,000 homeowners in trouble? This will leave a mark.

If we have around 10 million households in Canada and 2/3 are homeowners, that gives us 6.6 million households who are homeowners.

Of that, about 60% have mortgages, which is around 4 million.

If 600,000 of the 4 million are in trouble in the first month, that is 15% which is 50% higher that the U.S. experience which tanked their economy. (10% screwed the US)

And you can expect that number to rise on the 15th and 30th of each month from now until…?

We know that 40% of Canadians have less than $200 in emergency funds. Being generous, if half of Canadians have less than $3,000 in emergency savings, we can assume that that will be burnt off in 60 days. This jives with 5 million emergency fund applications in the first month; which is about 50% of all Canadian households.

By June 1st we could be looking at 30% of Canadians in trouble on their mortgages. And that’s when the banks will lose patience and it’ll start to get real.

If we follow the US model where the first thing to go is the vacation property, there will be some unbelievable deals on summer homes by the end of summer. Maybe even corrections 67% like were seen in Phoenix, Vegas and Florida.

This is going to get very ugly, very quickly and the feds don’t have deep enough pockets to stave it off.

#170 Don Guillermo on 04.12.20 at 9:38 pm

#121 YouKnowWho on 04.12.20 at 7:08 pm
I’m done thinking about it. I have the solution we can implement immediately for this Covid-19 crisis.
65 and older need to stay in self-isolation.
******************************************
Can we move it to 67 & 10 months? Asking for a friend!

#171 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 9:42 pm

“If I was laid off but debt free with cash in the bank, why on earth would I turn down $2,000 in free government money?”

Agreed. If you’re eligible, you’re eligible. The government isn’t saying don’t take it unless you have no other resources.

It’s just like claiming a tax deduction you’re eligible for, even if you don’t need the money.

No comparison. Moral hazard. – Garth

#172 TurnerNation on 04.12.20 at 9:45 pm

#118 Leftover – has the MOST important comment on this weblog tonight . (As enthralled as you might be with mine ;) )
>Credit unions: this weblog warned always about dealing with the teaser too-high GICs at your yokel credit union.
>Wasn’t it Where’s the money Greedo – in some of his more lucid posts – highlighting the lowered deposit insurance with the CUs?
> On the heels of thwarted bank mergers of yesteryear, could the Big 5 banks step up and taker over flagging CUs? Could THIS be the real purpose of Bail in Bonds? At least that they knew the real estate lending card tower would untowardly lean at any rate. But when.

#173 meslippery on 04.12.20 at 9:51 pm

Always thought globalization and free trade sucked for the poor and the(middle class) if we had good paying jobs like GM Oshawa. Maybe some would have some savings to fall back on. Turns out globalization means we have no PPE either. Nothing wrong with trade just make sure its not only for the rich to get richer but for the benefit of the Canadian citizens.
So if it can be made here make it here. Tariff imports.
Thats what I think I like about Trump But not much else.

#174 PastThePeak on 04.12.20 at 9:54 pm

#110 MF on 04.12.20 at 6:49 pm

He begged the question: how do we get out of this?

No one seems to have an answer. But what is clear is in the next decade (or less now) there will be a massive credit crisis. Real estate, stocks, bonds, everything is at risk of imploding.

For people like myself with a longer than ten year time frame…what is our plan?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Very few even think about this. Of those that do, opinions vary.

Mine:
– How doe we get out of this? We don’t. Only the very rich will maintain anything close to current standard of living.
– Gov’t / CBs will do everything in their power to kick the can as much as possible. No politician will not stop as they do not want to be blamed for the mess. This means ever increasing amounts of money printing / debt monetization. There is no limit to the amount of $$ printed – only the confidence of the people.
– Demographics are clearly also working against any solution
– It will be a race to the bottom for debt & currencies. Eventually, confidence in the USD will be lost, and all hell is likely to break loose.

Short term, I am still investing a portion of my cash in dividend & growth equities (includes a portion of REITs and preferreds), together with an existing bond mutual fund via work RRSP, as no one knows the future for certain. This is split between CAD and USD, and also some Swiss & UK companies for some international exposure.

But I also have a different balanced portfolio under development:
– Accumulating physical AU and AG (don’t want to use the names or might be deleted). Part of my equities are top name mining stocks
– Own farm land, buying machinery, next is to build a greenhouse
– Started a side sole proprietor business for the above that gives near-term tax benefits while building the biz
– Start semi-retirement early (in 5 years at 55) to avoid as much as possible the expected crushing taxes. Basically work longer, but earning less, at something that is sustainable.

Doesn’t get me down though. Enjoy the life you have, family / friends, look to build something survivable.

#175 Mr Canada on 04.12.20 at 9:58 pm

The feds asked the banks to defer mortgage payments. They did. Now borrowers are screaming that missed payments will be added to their outstanding balances (duh)…. Witness the fact over five million people have applied for the emergency monthly pogey of two grand. They lacked the resources to survive four weeks without help. Yikes.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I thought Canada was a wealthy country. The government is wilfully throwing borrowed money at anyone, whether they need the emergency pogey or not in spite of them promising if you didn’t need it, you have to pay it back next year (yeah, right). It’s an “entitlement”, it’s “free”! why save when the government “has your back” to quote T2. This is the dependency culture we have all created, and in the long term it will end badly for those that need support the most.

#176 Don Guillermo on 04.12.20 at 10:13 pm

#179 Mr Canada on 04.12.20 at 9:58 pm

I thought Canada was a wealthy country. The government is wilfully throwing borrowed money at anyone, whether they need the emergency pogey or not in spite of them promising if you didn’t need it, you have to pay it back next year (yeah, right). It’s an “entitlement”, it’s “free”! why save when the government “has your back” to quote T2. This is the dependency culture we have all created, and in the long term it will end badly for those that need support the most
**************************************
It was a wealthy country. Should be the wealthiest on the planet. We collectively decided to torpedo our resource wealth to satisfy the globalists and the climate alarmists. As our host says … oh Canada. I say oh no Canada :(

#177 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 10:35 pm

“No comparison. Moral hazard. “

Nuts! Fact is, it is the patriotic duty of every eligible but cash-flush Canadian to avail themselves of Canada Emergency Response Benefit cash… If only to remove the stigma that would otherwise attach to our less cash-flush brethren who need it.

Observe:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/u-s-banking-giants-tap-fed-s-discount-window-to-ease-stigma

See? You don’t need the money but you take the money anyway, to ease the embarrassment of everyone else.. Goes back to what I was saying at #123 about how the little guy has to put up with morality lectures regarding money, while the big guys just shout “MAXIMIZE SHAREHOLDER VALUE” and give everyone the fig.

N.B. Reminds me, someone was asking about crisis-appropriate hurtin’ music.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtKlYeKEKARPgS3DqdE_vsQ

Also, did Flop the selector not yet mention the Ethiopians’ Hong Kong Flu?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wy6-EVRYuCs

#178 Phylis on 04.12.20 at 10:40 pm

I’m sorry, your heloc cant be used for that.
I’m sorry, you can’t have a heloc.
I’m sorry, your heloc has been capped.
I’m sorry, your heloc has been reduced.
I’m sorry, your heloc has been exceeded.
I’m sorry, we demand payment on your heloc.
I’m sorry, you are in default of your heloc.
Wait for it. Wait for it.

#179 meslippery on 04.12.20 at 10:42 pm

LOCs can be used for equity purchases, but no longer for rental property down payments. Try again. – Garth
—————

How do they know what you are doing with the money?

#180 NFN_NLN on 04.12.20 at 10:47 pm

I don’t believe this was planned, but I do believe the extreme left have been waiting for an opportunity.

https://youtu.be/9FpTlleWdes

Viva Frei – Canadian lawyer on Kentucky event

https://youtu.be/8icA-iXWRcg

#181 YouKnowWho on 04.12.20 at 10:53 pm

#174 Don Guillermo

******************************************
Can we move it to 67 & 10 months? Asking for a friend!
******************************************

Going forward we’re going to treat adults like adults!

If he’s over 65 and wants to go out, guess what – NO BY-LAW bull$#!+ tickets!

There are real BY-LAW to enforce out there like poop-n-scoop and on-leash area violators! :-)

#182 kc on 04.12.20 at 10:54 pm

#265 MF on 04.12.20 at 1:09 pm

#246 kc on 04.12.20 at 11:10 am

“I suggest you follow this link to this date and scroll to the time and listen to M. Cambells insight into what the problem is. Here is some straight goods as the troubles we are in.

April 11 scan to 8:35

https://globalnews.ca/pages/audio-vault-cknw/?gref=cknw

-I suggest everyone listen to this little snippet. 8:35 AM. April 11. Thanks kc for that.

MF

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Hey MF,

go back to the saturday before, same time and listen to his commentary. you might enjoy that one also. (if it still up)

#183 Re-Cowtown on 04.12.20 at 10:55 pm

No comparison. Moral hazard. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

I don’t understand how being perfectly and legally entitled to federal funds differs from your oft stated position on optimizing tax avoidance.

Claiming “moral hazard” to shame people from excercising a clearly legal option makes no sense. Are you then willing to shame your clients for maximizing their TFSAs, RRSPs and RESPs? Or recommend that they not claim your advisor fees to them as a tax deduction?

I don’t think you want to head down that particular rabbit hole. False claims of superior morality are what led Trudeau to kill pipelines and now all of Canada has to live with the damage.

I’m not that deep, but over the years I’ve realized that the world boils down to a quote by Robert De Niro in the movie “The Deer Hunter”: “This is this…. it isn’t something else… This is this.”

Ignoring “This is this” creates all kinds of problems.

#184 Paul on 04.12.20 at 10:58 pm

#92 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 5:51 pm
“If the government wants to full-on nanny state why not drop off a box of processed food once a week, and a box of fresh produce to each residence twice a week?”
Canada dumps milk, America hoards cheese.
https://psmag.com/economics/what-will-the-us-government-do-with-1-4-billion-pounds-of-cheese
————————————————————————————————
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_cheese

#185 fishman on 04.12.20 at 11:10 pm

Sail Away: Government money i.e. free money. The kiss of death. Refer to Gartho the Great as in “moral hazard”.

#186 Lift Corktown on 04.12.20 at 11:20 pm

Totally agree with you.

#187 DON on 04.12.20 at 11:25 pm

#112 Nonplused on 04.12.20 at 6:54 pm

Nice list!

You forgot the shortage of Toilet Paper and Hand sanitizer. Far worse then debt or the credit fiasco.

#188 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.12.20 at 11:26 pm

Could a little grey mouse bring down the big orange elephant.
I root for the little guy.

#189 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.12.20 at 11:31 pm

#114 Sail Away on 04.12.20 at 7:01 pm
I went swimming naked today when the tide went out. It was fantastic!
———–
Hey, big guy.
Did it shrink?

#190 AisA on 04.12.20 at 11:34 pm

Stop blaming the current situation on an act of God that no one could see coming. The virus is not what needs to be overcome for people to get on with their lives. The Governmental reaction to rumors of something scary coming out of China is what we need to overcome.

#191 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.12.20 at 11:40 pm

#114 Sail Away on 04.12.20 at 7:01 pm
I went swimming naked today when the tide went out. It was fantastic! It was surprising to see the hordes of Canadians already doing the same. We had a big happy crowd of low-tide skinnydippers.
We’re doing it again tomorrow if anyone’s interested? Low tide is 4 pm. Join the crowd!
***********************************
Ahh … Wreck beach. Remember it well.
———-
Did Buffet go to UBC?

#192 Harley Tempke on 04.12.20 at 11:51 pm

IMHO, be long and go long suppositions lead to different conclusions along the Corona timeline. I am ” long” without commitment to ” going long” . Why?

Because I don’t think we’ve seen a bottom. The perception will likely shift negative when Q3 numbers are released. Those are really really super ugly. I think the whisper numbers on real unemployent and profits will shake another tranche of tremulous investors into the capitulation zone. Q2 caused a panic, Q3 is much worse. And it’s only weeks away.

My argument is that you can’t have a bear market recovery without a bear market bottom. Without confirmation thee last few weeks are a honey of a bear trap, a relief rally, nothing more.

Noting the light volume of this ” best week since 1947″ , you have to conclude that there’s no commitment by industrial traders. Without support, and a collapse in confidence due to shifting perception I think we’ll have to retest the lows.

Will the malaise last, that depends on how much structural damage politicians inject into the economy. Right now we have a policy recession, not a systemic structural failure. Government has turned off the economy. It can be turned back on. This is not a Lehman Event.

If the likes of Trudeau use this time to further the silly globalist agenda re: climate change and wealth distribution, decolonization , post nationalist migration Agenda 21 etc etc, then structural rot will pile on and much of the consumer economy will smoke like s dumpster fire for generations.

The fight for the soul of Canada is being fought by failed radicals in EU and American NGO boardrooms. The result of this war of ideologies will determine if you have an economy to invest in. If you’re all for a ratcheting up of taxes to kill resource revenue, then by all means stay the course. If you look at crumbling schools, antiquated universities and third world hospitals, stay the course.

#193 Dr V on 04.13.20 at 12:17 am

139 youknowwho

from the link

“The shows will continue without a live audience.”

So what?

#194 Karlhungus on 04.13.20 at 12:35 am

Garth I’m quite shocked that you are suggesting people not take the CERB. If they qualify, why would there be a moral hazard? It’s got nothing to do with your financial situation. If you’re laid off, take the cash. Someone should be punished for being responsible???

#195 JP on 04.13.20 at 12:44 am

Vancouver just came out and admitted that they are facing bankruptcy as a quarter of homeowners are unlikely to pay more than half owed taxes this year. Couple that with over 2/3’s of survey’d owners did not make a mortgage payment in April and more than half do not expect to make a payment in May – Lotusland might be about to lose some RE lustre.

Link: https://vancouversun.com/news/covid-19-city-of-vancouver-at-risk-of-bankruptcy-says-mayor/wcm/8fd95f9e-2cd0-4d67-b83d-c19ee6fe284d/

#196 JP on 04.13.20 at 12:47 am

To clarify: ” make a mortgage payment in April and more than half do not expect to make a payment in May” – make a FULL payment, likewise 30 percent of renters for April and 63 percent of renters for May will be unable to make a full payment.

#197 yvr_lurker on 04.13.20 at 12:55 am

Beijing tightens grip over coronavirus research, amid US-China row on virus origin

From CNN’s Nectar Gan, Caitlin Hu and Ivan Watson

China has imposed restrictions on the publication of academic research on the origins of the novel coronavirus, according to a central government directive and online notices published by two Chinese universities, that have since been removed from the web.

Under the new policy, all academic papers on Covid-19 will be subject to extra vetting before being submitted for publication. Studies on the origin of the virus will receive extra scrutiny and must be approved by central government officials, according to the now-deleted posts.

————————————

One would think that it is important for scientists from all countries to understand in detail the origins of this disease to prevent further events. Not helpful if the information is vetted and then twisted for political reasons.

To me this begs the question on whether this is the type of country that we should happily invite in to make the 5G network. Huawei would likely controlled in the same way by the Gov’t. I think Canada must join many other western countries to pass on Huawei.

#198 Econ 101 on 04.13.20 at 1:00 am

RE: #25 auskirby604

That is not how it works. Don’t even think for a second you know how it works. Now, after you find Waldo and open your first economics text book, first read up on the Dunning-Kruger effect.

That’s you! That’s you who they were talking about. Well, you and most politicians (not you Garth).

#199 akashic record on 04.13.20 at 1:07 am

#58 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 4:08 pm

You are now obsessed with the messenger.

After it turns out that the messenger is discussing virologist research papers, not just riding his bicycle on the streets of Pittsburgh, you suddenly switch to full conspiracy theory mode: “What’s his game? What’s he selectively emphasising and de-emphasising? Who likes the video you linked to?” OMG!!! And “why do YOU need a non-virologist to mediate between you and virologists?”

Oh, JC! Not the highly suspicious one, you Linkedin, but the real one.

It’s all in the damn video – but I guess you would never Figure It Out.

As for the “what about this Wittkowski guy”, yes his numbers are off.

But still much better than the estimate Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, made 2 weeks ago.

The real virologist blogs you follow must be full of buzz about this.

#200 Jim on 04.13.20 at 1:50 am

Isn’t that five words?…

#201 SoggyShorts on 04.13.20 at 1:57 am

49 Keep Your Rent on 04.12.20 at 3:39 pm

The math works just fine: 2k for you + 2k for your roommate is enough to pay rent and survive just fine even in Toronto.

If you are solo and don’t make enough to have a rainy day fund and don’t have a roommate and live in Toronto, then you’re an idiot.

#202 Werner K on 04.13.20 at 1:59 am

“Are investors nuts? Don’t they know what’s happening?”
I would say they are not nuts. If we ask Ivan Boesky he will tell us: Greed is all right, by the way. I want you to know that. I think greed is healthy. You can be greedy and still feel good about yourself.

#203 Not So New guy on 04.13.20 at 2:47 am

It’s times like this when we discover why the banks own all the big shiny office towers downtown in pratically every city

They don’t make money from borrtowing it…

#204 Not So New guy on 04.13.20 at 2:50 am

Note to self:

Always double-check posts before hitting submit. There is no edit

#205 boots on the ground in ptown, usa on 04.13.20 at 3:03 am

#115 Ustabe on 04.11.20 at 6:28 pm#78 BrianT on 04.11.20 at 4:44 pmRobert F Kennedy Jr has pointed out that Bill Gates paralyzed 496000 children in India through his vaccination campaigns, causing Gates’s agency to be expelled from India-I guess now Robert F Kennedy Jr is a Conspiracy Theorist for pointing out these facts https://thebl.com/us-news/robert-f-kennedy-jr-answers-bill-gates-on-the-dangers-of-a-mandatory-ccp-virus-vaccine.htmlGarth, why do you allow this garbage to be published?I clicked the link and Googled the damning “496000 children” part.Everything is one or two days old and consists of Facebook garbage, Twitter garbage and websites I’ve never heard of and would be safe in saying are purveyors of garbage. Even r/conspiracy has a swing at it.Not one mainstream news site has this in any form, not right, left or center. All of the sites are publishing very similar stories, almost as if they are copying it verbatim from somewhere else. Even hardwarezone.com, that bastion of fair and independent news reporting.And on page three of Google search results we find tigerdroppings.net. Another bastion of truth…I made it to page 4 or 5 where the Russian disinformation sites start popping up…not a mainstream national or local news website in 5 pages reporting this drivel.BrianT (or is it Ivan?), you should be ashamed of yourself.
——————————————————————
have you heard of internet scrubbing? I’m a functional medicine advocate. The past 5 yrs or maybe even just the past 3, have seen enormous amounts of information TPTB dont want you to know, scrubbed from the internet. Modern day book burning. One dr in spain Dr Vasquez, who holds 3 ph.d’s has recently directly experienced this. suddenly his books cant be purchased on amazon. Not toeing the party line. I suggest you look and trace back, all ownership of the MSM and where it leads.( Ask someone like Jess to do it, in fact. Always enjoy their posts.) Sadly, you wont find much to lead you to the truth nowadays if you use Google, Chrome etc. Let it be said that my impression of that site is the same as yours. Leery at first. If i didnt posess the knowledge that i do about that subject, I would feel the same as you as far as first impressions.
Read here every day, rarely comment much anymore but i admire Garth more than i could ever express for valiently standing for truth and reason. i’m 36 and i fear when our elders are no longer amidst us. How else can we learn from the past.

People wake up, Google is not your friend, as in what they’re doing as well as what using google does to your brain. Trains it not to think and blindly accept the party line. Yep, maybe i’ll get scorned for being CT. thats fine. Revelations bears me out. Pick up the Good Book sometime and put down google. canadians, you’re trained to think how they want canadians to think, and same goes for us stateside.
Read Epsilontheory.com, Dr ben hunt. his “Fiat News, fiat currency” article comes to mind. also: “Sheep Logic”. human behavior viewed thru the eyes of game theory. You may find, as i did, that maybe, just maybe “I’m not so smart after all”.
from a dual citizen living stateside.

#206 Sky on 04.13.20 at 6:19 am

@ seb #29 :

“Big question is: is this lockdown is even constitutional? ”

******************************************
As Mao put it ” Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” The eternal truth.

When you have things like this happening in BC, how much clearer can it get that the Constitution’s going up in smoke as we speak.

“The maximum fine for failing to comply with the quarantine is $750,000 and up to six months in prison, but those who put others at risk could face harsher penalties: up to a $1-million levy and three years imprisonment.

“Arrests would be a last resort, based on the circumstance and the officer’s risk assessment,” the RCMP said.”

Ah yes, the old officer’s “risk assessment” trick. Translation – ‘The amount of your fine will be determined by an assessment of the value of your stock portfolio & home equity.’ In other words, looting. With the homeless and other poor to be exempted.

What’s truly terrifying isn’t the government’s increasingly draconian measures. It’s people’s reactions to them. Most approve.

If they decided to execute the quarantine breakers in lieu of bankruptcy and prison some people would cheer them on. You can count one of my neighbors in on that. Which is how freaking paranoid we’ve become.

Some are predicting a revolt or rebellion of sorts. I can’t see it. Boomers too creaky and zoned out. Glued to the boob tube. The millies and zeds socially engineered and addicted to tech. Perhaps only if they lost access to their beloved screens and devices?

This really is a nightmare of a prison planet with some of the inmates getting a little antsy. We want out of our cells and want our jobs, bars and concerts back. But tragically, that’s about ALL freedom means to a lot of us.

Less censorship or the ability to think critically outside of our programmed straight jackets means nothing to most people. They don’t view these as critical freedoms. Which is why we find ourselves where we are. And why the governments can impose pretty much anything they want on the people they rule.

Never for a minute think the western governments don’t know exactly how far to push you. They have armies of bots and AI globally sweeping the web. Continuously monitoring, assessing, computing and calculating. All social media. The comment’s boards. Your location. What you’re thinking. And all in real time. Your thrills on pornhub or the latest version of Call of Duty are merely the hook.

And these current social distancing measures? They’re little more than a sick joke. Because… it’s the web that’s the sine qua non of TRUE social distancing. Do you want to give the web up? Yeah, that’s what I thought. Checkmate!

https://globalnews.ca/news/6804626/coronavirus-police-verifying-quarantine-order/

#207 Sky on 04.13.20 at 6:31 am

@ seb # 29 : When I asked if you wanted to give the web up? That was meant as a collective “you”. It’s not in any way intended as snark directed at you personally. :-)

#208 Johnny Peede on 04.13.20 at 7:25 am

Moral hazard? Is the Trudeau government using Communist Chinese Party propaganda as their songsheet for public health announcements?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/30/beijing-coronavirus-response-see-what-sticks-propaganda-blame-ccp-xi-jinping/

#209 BrianT on 04.13.20 at 7:27 am

#167Buy Low-one could call those tenants deadbeats but we are into uncharted territory here-the government has crushed the economy and the “rule of law” is force rules. My point is that if you are sure you will have enough money to survive you should pay your rent owed but anyone that isn’t sure they have enough money for survival is a fool to give away cash-I think we can all agree that this fiasco is going to dramatically increase the homeless and poor population in Canada-you definitely don’t want to be one of those.

#210 Steven Rowlandson on 04.13.20 at 7:29 am

Being a land lord and renting out places to live is Usury and the biblical penalty for lending anything upon usury to ones countrymen is death. It is more than just money lending Garth….. Let every man have his own home on a lot at a price of equal to or less than 3x his annual pay only and a 25% down payment and a low fixed rate if there is a rate at all. The NSDAP did 40% down and 0% mortgages with 25% debt forgiveness for every child born within 10 years. 4 children and one is debt free; not a bad baby bonus at all.
For nation and its people Garth.

#211 Headhunter on 04.13.20 at 8:07 am

Its ABSURD for the gov’t to shut down means of production and commerce and still expect the people effected to pay their bills. No Mr Landlord you spend your life savings, that you should have saved for this raining day. Kick you tenant out when you can… Good luck finding a new one,cause be 10000″s of units just like yours up for rent. New boss will be same as the old one..(tenant)

All you gloating penny pinchers should have bought that car, watch, went on that once in a lifetime vacation. Too bad so sad. Wont being enjoying that $$$$ anytime soon if ever. (truth is you get your enjoyment by counting it) Want to leave the country? Gov will decide for you. Hell you cant even cross a provincial line without going through a checkpoint. (cant even go to your cottage now)

Divide and Conquer I guess still works, peeps in HK, and the Yellow Vests in France knew what sticking together could do.. enter social distancing!

Things will NEVER be the same again, thats what you are being prepped for. Social Distancing here to stay IMHO. When you close all Provincial parks more is going on then a virus. Sorry.

#212 Benny Leung on 04.13.20 at 8:14 am

Communist Party Propaganda misplaced? Why is it being repeated by Health Minister Hadju? So far many have questioned the Trudeau Liberals positions, no answers?

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1898690/chinas-misplaced-pandemic-propaganda

Is it as many Canadian journalists have suggested, incompetence? Or is it political? Will there be any transparency forthcoming?

#213 Headhunter on 04.13.20 at 8:19 am

Same family.. live under same roof.. at an empty parking lot $880 fine..

https://globalnews.ca/news/6810568/coronavirus-oakville-ontario-rollarblading-fine/

still thinks its just for a virus?

#214 OK, Doomer on 04.13.20 at 8:22 am

#198 Karlhungus on 04.13.20 at 12:35 am
Garth I’m quite shocked that you are suggesting people not take the CERB. If they qualify, why would there be a moral hazard? It’s got nothing to do with your financial situation. If you’re laid off, take the cash. Someone should be punished for being responsible???

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Excellent comment. If you don’t need the cash today (maybe later, who knows?) but qualify, then take it anyway and donate it to the Food Bank. Then take the tax deductible donation.

Or look for a neighbor who need help. On my street I have several neighbors who are up their necks on lease payments on their new BMW’s, Porsches and Audis and are stressed out because they don’t know where the money for their next mani-pedi is going to come from. Lend them a hand.

My 14 year-old Nissan with 250,000km is paid for so it’s the least I can do to help them out.

#215 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.20 at 8:31 am

#197 Dr V on 04.13.20 at 12:17 am
139 youknowwho

from the link

“The shows will continue without a live audience.”
—————-
Live audience?

#216 Kevin on 04.13.20 at 8:35 am

Hey Garth. Am starting to think aptmts and condos are big germ farms to stay away from. Don’t think I want to be in a hall or elevator with other warm water germ bags.

#217 Figure it Out on 04.13.20 at 8:39 am

“After it turns out that the messenger is discussing virologist research papers, not just riding his bicycle on the streets of Pittsburgh, you suddenly switch to full conspiracy theory mode”

No, I showed you who was linking to the video. It’s easy to do — you just google the code that Youtube uses to identify the video, and up pops the sites that link to it. Like this: google.com/search?q=zIW3TQpVJYs

Who links? Conspiracy theory sites.

Prediction: JC goes on to make more nutty videos that you’ll enjoy. Why? Dopamine. His neurology videos garnered a few hundred views each, but his more recent was-the-bug-made-in-a-lab conspiracy work get thousands, sometimes tens of thousands. He gets a rush — minor internet celebrity, at last. Makes a self-congratulatory video after getting 1,000 followers. Keeps doing what’s been working for him.

No, I still haven’t watched his videos, and I won’t be, for reasons I explained. Took me longer to write these few posts than to research him and form an opinion about him (and you).

Marshall McLuhan said that the medium is the message. This most certainly applies to weirdo backlit Youtube videos about government biowarfare conspiracies linked to by the fringe which enjoys such fare.

How did you discover his work?

#218 Stone on 04.13.20 at 8:49 am

No comparison. Moral hazard. – Garth

———

So, per this blog, we have Social Distance Warriors and they are to be shamed for their incorrect line of thinking. Not that I agree with that.

Now, we have Moral Hazard Warriors who want to pass their personal judgement on others. Should they be shamed too? I actually agree with this one though.

Does the Us vs Them narrative sometimes create unexpected blowback?

What’s good for the goose is good for the gander?

The issue is simple: take money you don’t need in the midst of a national emergency when health care workers are short of protective equipment, the government’s broke and this will result in more tax? The social compact is broken. – Garth

#219 Survey this on 04.13.20 at 8:55 am

“No comparison. Moral hazard. – Garth”

Garth, may I suggest that you use this topic for your next survey.

#220 Note to YVR_lurker on 04.13.20 at 9:00 am

DELETED

#221 Sky on 04.13.20 at 9:07 am

@ Smoking Man #148 :

” When I came back to Canada in mid Jan, on every channel, every news paper.

The Rail Blockaid. That was it. No other news.

Then boom. Someone snapped their finger nails.

Coronsvirus…..COVID 19

Something is not right here..”

******************************

How’d you travel? By time machine?

A group from the 1960’s, Buffalo Springfield, remember them?

There’s something happening here
What it is ain’t exactly clear
There’s a man with a gun over there
Telling me I got to beware……

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bl-vbBnJ3I

“If you can remember the 60’s you weren’t really there.” Whoever said that, nailed it. Incredible times.

#222 Sail Away on 04.13.20 at 9:13 am

#189 fishman on 04.12.20 at 11:10 pm

Sail Away: Government money i.e. free money. The kiss of death. Refer to Gartho the Great as in “moral hazard”.

——————-

My take is that private companies can make better profitable use of monies than the government could and it will keep staff employed who would otherwise be laid off. Personal compensation is a byproduct of a successful company… and the gov’t also benefits very well from taxes.

It would irresponsible for a company owner to not accept freebies. I might even start taking a salary for myself again.

#223 Figure it Out on 04.13.20 at 9:17 am

“have you heard of internet scrubbing? I’m a functional medicine advocate. The past 5 yrs or maybe even just the past 3, have seen enormous amounts of information TPTB dont want you to know, scrubbed from the internet. Modern day book burning. One dr in spain Dr Vasquez, who holds 3 ph.d’s has recently directly experienced this. suddenly his books cant be purchased on amazon.”

I google the guy on amazon.com and I get 92 results in books. The first page is all the quack’s stuff, in paper or Kindle format — I didn’t check the rest.

His three degrees are:
University of Western States (Doctor of Chiropractic, 1996)
Bastyr University (Doctor of Naturopathic Medicine, 1999)
University of North Texas Health Science Center, (Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine, 2010)
I mention it because he’s a tad reticent about them, only mentioning “3 doctorate degrees from fully-accredited universities in the United States” on his website. Ashamed of his Almas Mater?

So he’s one of those “doctors” who hasn’t seen the inside of a medical school. I google “dr vasquez” and his page is in the first page of search results, even though there’s probably over 1,000 doctors Vasquez on the planet. He’s hosted by WIX, a mainstream internet provider. Doesn’t seem like he’s being suppressed at all.

It is a common pitch in the field of, um, alternative medicine and pills, that “they” are suppressing this and that the medical establishment doesn’t want you to know that. Appeals to the desperate, the gullible, and the paranoid.

#224 Penny Henny on 04.13.20 at 9:20 am

#175 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 9:42 pm
“If I was laid off but debt free with cash in the bank, why on earth would I turn down $2,000 in free government money?”

Agreed. If you’re eligible, you’re eligible. The government isn’t saying don’t take it unless you have no other resources.

It’s just like claiming a tax deduction you’re eligible for, even if you don’t need the money.

No comparison. Moral hazard. – Garth
//////////////

Same as when various levels of govt were handing out $14,000 cheques so people could drop $100,000 on their Model S Tesla.
Should we be shaming all the Tesla owners?
I meant, other than Sail Away?

#225 Ottawa_Vet on 04.13.20 at 9:20 am

Interesting news coming out of Vancouver:
1. Over 30% Van residents surveyed say they will pay less (or no) property tax than required, because they are broke, and
2. BC began offering subsidies for renters, which requires the landlord to fill out paperwork. Some landlords are refusing because they have illegal suites.

https://www.straight.com/covid-19-pandemic/mayor-kennedy-stewart-releases-results-of-survey-showing-grim-economic-impact-of-pandemic-on

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/04/12/tenants-in-illegal-suites-might-have-difficulty-accessing-rental-subsidy/

#226 BrianT on 04.13.20 at 9:22 am

#217Headhunter-people haven’t adjusted to the new reality-in this case the guy has to say sorry about that-move on and come back to the same place 5 minutes later if they want to rollerblade-you can’t argue about it-the last poll is that 72% of the public thinks this is great-so we are a “democracy”or Idiotcracy-it is what it is.

#227 Howard on 04.13.20 at 9:30 am

Witness the fact over five million people have applied for the emergency monthly pogey of two grand. They lacked the resources to survive four weeks without help. Yikes.

——————————

That doesn’t mean all of them NEEDED it.

If the government is offering free money, why not take it? Even if you have to pay it all back when you file your tax return next year, in the meantime you can put the cash into a nice dividend paying stock.

Exactly why we are a nation in distress. Citizens who care not about the nation. Sad. – Garth

#228 Stone on 04.13.20 at 9:37 am

#222 Stone on 04.13.20 at 8:49 am
No comparison. Moral hazard. – Garth

———

So, per this blog, we have Social Distance Warriors and they are to be shamed for their incorrect line of thinking. Not that I agree with that.

Now, we have Moral Hazard Warriors who want to pass their personal judgement on others. Should they be shamed too? I actually agree with this one though.

Does the Us vs Them narrative sometimes create unexpected blowback?

What’s good for the goose is good for the gander?

The issue is simple: take money you don’t need in the midst of a national emergency when health care workers are short of protective equipment, the government’s broke and this will result in more tax? The social compact is broken. – Garth

———

Problem is, there is no social compact to break because it doesn’t exist. At one time, it may have but that hasn’t been the case for many, many years.

To have a social compact, you need social cohesion. When people don’t even know who their neighbours are, how can you have social cohesion, much less a social compact?

It’s sad but unfortunately true.

#229 Bezengy on 04.13.20 at 9:42 am

#199 Vancouver Bankrupt
_______

Toronto’s Mayor John (show me the money) Tory stated yesterday the city would face significant financial challenges and taxpayers can’t be expected to pay for them, so he is asking the provincial and federal for help. Gotta love that Toronto mentality.

#230 Flop... on 04.13.20 at 9:44 am

The issue is simple: take money you don’t need in the midst of a national emergency when health care workers are short of protective equipment, the government’s broke and this will result in more tax? The social compact is broken. – Garth

/////////////////////////

Garth, I was trying to write about this the other day.(See below)

I don’t want any part of a government using people dying to ram through a socialist agenda.

You are the wordsmith of the village.

I am the butcher…

M45BC

///////////////////

#192 Flop… on 04.12.20 at 12:05 am

I will spend some of my life savings before I suck on Trudeau’s teat.

That money’s got blood on it.

Welfare used to be for the needy, now it’s reserved for the greedy.

Blue collar life takes a pound of flesh a day, still got my pride.

M45BC

#231 not 1st on 04.13.20 at 9:53 am

These death stats coming out of the US are complete garbage.

We are basically tracking a subset of all cause mortality exacerbated by a respiratory virus. Regular flu, pneumonia, heart disease, immune compromised, diabetic, cancer, all some of which are rolled into covid deaths. Along with the lack of transparency in testing in the greater population and the number of people going untested, undetected and asymptomatic, we basically have no idea what the real numbers are on anything.

But for a strain of covid to magically appear as 100 times or more virulent than anything we have seen in 100 yrs is highly unlikely. H1N1 has mutated 5 times and that hasn’t happened. This could have rolled through some of the western population back in November already and we just halted the herd immunity.

#232 BrianT on 04.13.20 at 9:56 am

Re the social compact-those thousands of small business owners whose financial futures have been crushed arbitrarily by the government feel the Social Compact has been broken, ripped apart. shredded, you name it-and they are right.

#233 Moose Loose on 04.13.20 at 9:57 am

The old social contract model of pogey for the poor was broken by the Liberal Party 40+ years ago when universal became the replacement ideal and it is more purely communistic: universal healthcare, universal pensions and universal basic income and now universal emergency benefits.

#234 not 1st on 04.13.20 at 10:00 am

Exactly why we are a nation in distress. Citizens who care not about the nation. Sad. – Garth

Hear what you are saying Garth, but did you know in the relief package passed a few weeks back was a $200M donation to Africa, again. That’s on top of the close to $50B of our money already given away to global pet causes by Trudeau.

I don’t think Canadians should feel guilty about accessing govt programs when that is going on.

The ‘government’ is us. We pay for it. – Garth

#235 Sail Away on 04.13.20 at 10:02 am

Social contracts go two ways. When a government blandly allows lawbreakers to shut down national transportation and cripple the country’s resource movement, that is also breaking the agreement.

The thousands of CN Rail workers who lost their jobs from that may have thoughts.

It works best when both sides play by the rules.

#236 Mississauga Mel on 04.13.20 at 10:02 am

#217 Headhunter on 04.13.20 at 8:19 am

“Same family.. live under same roof.. at an empty parking lot $880 fine..
https://globalnews.ca/news/6810568/coronavirus-oakville-ontario-rollarblading-fine/

Didn’t get ticketed but last week while keeping my social distance and walking along a path, an unmarked cop car was crawling along the path. Creepy…

#237 Fused on 04.13.20 at 10:08 am

We are not a nation anymore, I believe our leader has now referred to Canada as a post nation state, this is his doing not ours. The identity that we use to have that bonded us together has been thrown to the curb, give the little emperor his just desserts.

#238 Dharma Bum on 04.13.20 at 10:12 am

#74 Penny Henny

Are motorcycle shops considered essential?
——————————————————————–

Abso – FRIGGIN – lutely!

Had the old Harley on the trickle charger yesterday, getting ready for some empty highway cruising!

#239 Buy Low Sell High on 04.13.20 at 10:15 am

#213 @BrianT

Agreed in that I think the numbers of homeless are going to increase after this mess clears, whenever that comes to pass. Also, if one has to choose between paying rent or paying for food well, then, food wins!

I want tenants to be accorded equal financial treatment once the dust settles. If some tenants who are a few months behind on their rent are given rent concessions then the landlord need offer those concessions to all. If the landlord is not offering rent concessions to any of the tenants in arrears then the landlord must proceed with their legal right to evict if the tenant has failed to clear their debt in a reasonable time period. I don’t live in a rent subsidized property and I don’t want it to turn into one!

#240 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.20 at 10:22 am

Many Governments around the Globe have authorized relief measures.
The Prez has just allocated 2T.
Why pick on Trudeau?

#241 Sail Away on 04.13.20 at 10:28 am

I have a social compact with our local crows. Each morning during nesting season, I throw a handful of dog food on the roof. Their end of the bargain is to wake me at first light every day by rap, rap, rapping at the chamber door (actually kitchen window), grab the dogs’ tails, terrorize the cat, and most importantly, provide amusement. Win-win.

#242 Sail Away on 04.13.20 at 10:34 am

Penny Henny: good point about Tesla car and stock owners. They should be admired and emulated, definitely not shamed.

#243 not 1st on 04.13.20 at 10:34 am

AB gets in trouble and all the whack SJW tell them to diversify the economy to green projects.

Wonder what their solution is for Vancouver? Maybe virtue signalling and RE speculation don’t pay the bills either.

The moral hazard starts when we start bailing out individual municipalities and provinces for their largess.

#244 akashic record on 04.13.20 at 10:55 am

#221 Figure it Out

His video was a response to an interview that I watched with an other expert earlier. That’s how I got there, and I am glad I did, because it contained valuable information. Now you know. The secret is out.

Your channeling of McLuhan is ridiculous.

The message of your “trusted virologists” use the same YouTube/Internet medium as anyone else.

McLuhan also avoided value judgement attached to medium.

Good bye.

#245 YouKnowWho on 04.13.20 at 10:56 am

New Cannonball Record time set! 45 minute improvement thanks to empty roads, no traffic, no cops, no road work closures. WOW.

https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a32092440/26-hour-38-minute-cannonball-record-coronavirus/

Thanks Covid-19!

#246 Don Guillermo on 04.13.20 at 11:02 am

Exactly why we are a nation in distress. Citizens who care not about the nation. Sad. – Garth

I agree and very sad indeed. Unfortunately Canada’s reckless PM leads the way. Not only by destroying Canadas wealth (way before CV-19) by deliberately shutting off our Natural Resource industries and handing the business over to many non environmentally friendly countries just to please the globalists but also by his own words:

From the Guardian: The prime minister, Justin Trudeau, articulated this when he told the New York Times Magazine that Canada could be the “first postnational state”. He added: “There is no core identity, no mainstream in Canada.”

#247 James on 04.13.20 at 11:03 am

#148 Smoking Man on 04.12.20 at 8:23 pm

When I came back to Canada in mid Jan, on every channel, every news paper.
The Rail Blockaid. That was it. No other news.
Then boom. Someone snapped their finger nails.
Coronsvirus…..COVID 19
Something is not right here..
__________________________________________
#77 Smoking Man on 07.02.19 at 1:28 am
In all our sons camand.
Canada ain’t Canada anymore. A nation of loyal subjects.
The king use to be England, look what the globalist did to that country. Your next. God bless Q
Drop to your knees Canada and kiss the ring of the globalists.
You gave never been free. You are natinon of the owned.
Escape before it gets worce.
________________________________________
#79 Smoking Man on 07.02.19 at 1:43 am
Oh Canada the land of cowards and the sucks ups.
True patriot, the coward that cant flick the middle figure to being owned crazy people. It’s in our hearts camand.
With glowing hearts we drop to our knees to new taxes.
We smile alot because we are afraid to smoke a cigarette.
I’ve put my faith in Trumps America. Where hard work is rewarded.
Happy Canada day suck ups.
__________________________________________
When I came back to Canada??????????
Welcome to Canada Old Man.
Start kissing and hugging all of us cowards. Sorry social distancing!
BTW. How is your faith in Trumps America going from North of the 49th.

#248 The West on 04.13.20 at 11:11 am

The welfare system once again strikes to save the rich (rather, those who have access to printed money that leverage it unto us who pay them to live). All these CERBs are to save the landlords and their economy so we spend, spend, spend to keep the elite afloat. It is my hope that every Canadian takes this money and stuffs it into a savings account. At some point we need to cure the exploitation going on in the western world, especially on the Canadian tax farm. What is going on is, frankly, unjust.

We see an exact model during COVID19 – privatizing the profits and socializing the losses. Before anyone jumps on and rings me over “but muh gubement is helping me” just you wait until tax filing next year….just wait….let’s talk then.

#249 not 1st on 04.13.20 at 11:12 am

Did I translate this right? Pretty harsh on our leader especially coming out of Quebec media.

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2020/04/12/dabord-confines-bientot-confits

#250 Dharma Bum on 04.13.20 at 11:12 am

#222 Stone

What’s good for the goose is good for the gander?

The issue is simple: take money you don’t need in the midst of a national emergency when health care workers are short of protective equipment, the government’s broke and this will result in more tax? The social compact is broken. – Garth
——————————————————————-

Hey people, face it, it’s just WRONG to take the Trudeau handout if you really don’t desperately need it. Come on, do you really want to be taking the paltry crumbs from that slime bucket? Seriously.

Besides, every dollar taken by the citizenry, whether legitimately or not, will come back to haunt them. It’ll be a tax obligation that will build over years. It will be a permanent record of who the economically dependant and destitute are. Taking that stipend is nothing to be proud of. If you actually need it to survive a few months, shame on you. You have completely mismanaged your life. This is proof. If you take it even though you don’t need it, double shame on you.

“People go on postponing everything that is meaningful. Tomorrow they will laugh; today, money has to be gathered… more money, more power, more things, more gadgets. Tomorrow they will love – today there is no time. But tomorrow never comes, and one day they find themselves burdened with all kinds of gadgets, burdened with money. They have come to the top of the ladder – and there is nowhere to go except to jump in a lake.”

Osho

#251 conan on 04.13.20 at 11:14 am

that millions of Canadians have allowed debt to render them impotent.- Garth

How many did not have a choice though?

A ton of people saw their jobs change from being something that could support a family to not being able to do that.

Business was fast to figure out what jobs could be turned into bottom feeder professions. Like those that provide basic care at old age homes.

The creation of gig jobs. Low pay, no benefits, and a serious bending of the rules to make almost any employee a self employed person. Seriously, any one who does a service for someone else at less 30 dollars an hour should be an employee with deductions.

I believe in the efficiencies of business. I am generally a free market person, but there are limits. You can not have business interests start eroding the strength of the nation. And this is what has happened to us.

#252 Sail Away on 04.13.20 at 11:23 am

#244 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.20 at 10:22 am

Many Governments around the Globe have authorized relief measures.
The Prez has just allocated 2T.
Why pick on Trudeau?

——————–

Canada has a Prez?

Oh, you’re talking about another country. The reason we pick on Trudeau is because he is the leader of the country in which we live, and his actions affect us far more than do the actions of leaders of other countries. Because, you know, leaders’ policies of different countries are specific to their own country.

Does that help?

#253 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.20 at 11:29 am

I wonder what sort of social contract the people will expect when the economy is decimated, the govt is broke and there is no more “free money” to hand out to every brainless idiot that cant save 6 months worth of emergency money.
It should be in about a year at this money printing burn rate.

I guess the “free money” taps get turned off in Sept so we should see more moaning and bitching from the public parasites ( insert voters here) by Nov. 1st…..

9 months from now we will need emergency funding to supply maternity wards with diapers and participation ribbons.
Happy New Year new moms and dads.

#254 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.20 at 11:30 am

@#244 Ponzie Pilot
“Why pick on Trudeau?”
++++

Because he’s ruining our economy?

#255 akashic record on 04.13.20 at 11:32 am

The ‘government’ is us. We pay for it. – Garth

Though we have no actual, meaningful control on spending.

It’s like a credit card with no spending limit, given to a not even beautiful trophy wife.

#256 Wrk.dover on 04.13.20 at 11:33 am

USA win the trade war yet?

#257 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.20 at 11:46 am

Gee whiz.
Round #2 before the first round is even over.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-more-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21V0JQ

Time to let the flu run its course ? Since that’s what it seems like it’s doing anyway?

End the ridiculous isolation tactics, admit that this flu is going to infect everyone…possibly multiple times……and get back to work?

#258 Dr V on 04.13.20 at 12:21 pm

219 Ponzie – not sure if the sarcasm font was on. If not, WWE cancelled its live shows (often 12000+ fans) for taped studio performances from its development
and training centre with no fans in attendance. From the link provided, it will now air these live, from its development centre, but still with no live audience.

WWE can have an interesting juxtaposition of following the rules, pushing the limits, political correctness, redneck patriotism, women’s rights and bikinis.

if the sarcasm font was on, I am presuming the reference to a “live” audience as opposed to a living breathing thinking one?

When Ted Turner bought rival world Championship Wrestling, according to Mcmahon, he phoned Vince and told him “Guess what Vince, I’m in the wrestling business” to which Mcmahon replied “That’s great Ted,
I’m in the entertainment business”. WWE has continued to evolve in its marketing and branding and
is a great study for this as well as some social commentary. This is not your father’s pro wrestling.

What I don’t understand now, is that people actually think other people believe it’s real.

#259 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.20 at 12:27 pm

#256 Sail Away on 04.13.20 at 11:23 am
#244 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.13.20 at 10:22 am

Many Governments around the Globe have authorized relief measures.
The Prez has just allocated 2T.
Why pick on Trudeau?

——————–

Canada has a Prez?

Oh, you’re talking about another country. The reason we pick on Trudeau is because he is the leader of the country in which we live, and his actions affect us far more than do the actions of leaders of other countries. Because, you know, leaders’ policies of different countries are specific to their own country.

Does that help?
—————-
Sigh!
Another linear thinker.

#260 Lefty on 04.13.20 at 12:29 pm

The only certainty is that the Canadian experts (well intentioned and gender balanced as they may be) have been wrong about this virus and what it could/will do from day one. What on earth makes anyone think they’ll get it right going forward?

Time to try the Swedish approach

#261 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.13.20 at 12:39 pm

I’m sure Figured Nothing Out will attack this guy as a source as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86VJlhw0DQQ&feature=youtu.be

#262 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.20 at 12:42 pm

@#253 not1st
” Pretty harsh on our leader especially coming out of Quebec media….”

++++

“…..because its 2020?”

J’applaudis leurs critiques. il le mérite.

#263 SOS on 04.13.20 at 12:45 pm

Maybe this reaction is really just a practice run for a more contagious, more deadly pandemic. I’m finding some comfort in thinking that right now. It helps explain what’s going on without making me think the government doesn’t care about young people.

#264 James on 04.13.20 at 12:47 pm

#261 Wrk.dover on 04.13.20 at 11:33 am

USA win the trade war yet?
_________________________________________
Here’s the score.

USA China
—————————–
0 | 1.4 billion
|

Don’t invest in Pork futures right now.

#265 James on 04.13.20 at 12:49 pm

#259 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.20 at 11:30 am

@#244 Ponzie Pilot
“Why pick on Trudeau?”
++++

Because he’s ruining our economy?
__________________________________________
WRONG, WRONG, WRONG.

Because he ruined our economy!

#266 Don Guillermo on 04.13.20 at 12:57 pm

#265 Lefty on 04.13.20 at 12:29 pm
The only certainty is that the Canadian experts (well intentioned and gender balanced as they may be) have been wrong about this virus and what it could/will do from day one
**************************************
Is Dr Tam the last in the world still believing Chinas numbers? Believing what someone says just because of their ethnicity is racist.

#267 not 1st on 04.13.20 at 1:02 pm

Garth doesn’t see the microcosm of society at work. He needs to go to twitter. The people who got a flash deposit from the govt are now attacking the people who are trying to keep afloat on their own merits but suggesting the restrictions start to loosen.

Why would any business owner with means empty his own pockets to stay afloat while that group went instantly on the dole and starts attacking them. There is no reasoning with that group. Why should we act so virtuous and decline govt money when you have those idiots acting all entitled and preachy.

Subsidizing a whole generation of SJWs was a big mistake. They are more entitled than ever.

I don’t know about the social contract being broken but our society clearly is.

#268 IHCTD9 on 04.13.20 at 1:06 pm

Interesting comments on partaking of benefits when you don’t need to.

Being as honest as possible, I have been an advocate for avoiding and offsetting taxes since the day Trudeau said “the budget will balance itself”, and “because it’s 2015”. I knew what was coming, and have been damned right about pretty much everything.

I also decided I did not want to become a crusty old @sshole over political actions I had no control over, and for which most of my fellow Canadians supported. Life sucks when you fall into that hole (I know a few who have, and they’re hard to be around).

So, I decided to take control of that which was in my power to control, make a plan, and to find satisfaction in carrying out said plan to the best of my abilities. I still vote too, but so far have been getting out gunned.

My plan was/is to minimize my financial support of politics I totally disagree with. I have done well despite taking no benefit/deduction I was ineligible for, and working to avoid situations where taxes become due – like shingling the roof myself, shopping the FNR’s, fixing our own vehicles etc. So far in Canada doing all this stuff is legal.

So, I am perfectly eligible for the CERB, and am taking it even though I do not absolutely need to. Why? Because it is in accordance with the plan: “to minimize my financial support of politics I totally disagree with”. I am not breaking the law one bit, and will discontinue the benefit the day I am called back to work.

Now, some folks will just hate my guts for this. Frankly, that’s just too bad. Consider me as the problem you get when a government like the Trudeau Libs are voted in. Trudeau has not means tested this benefit, so taking it becomes a simple matter of choice. I choose yes. Hate the game boys, – the game.

If you are seething with rage reading this, then do what I did. Make a plan. Build a road to happiness and start conducting yourself in a manner that discourages governments like we have right now from ever getting elected again. No more 5 figure annual handouts just because you have kids. No more big breaks at tax time for the selected demographics. No more 2000.00 monthly handouts to basically anyone with 5 minutes to apply.

Make this happen, and my tax bill goes through the roof.

Until then, you‘d better get a piece of leather to bite on.

#269 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.20 at 1:23 pm

@#272 Not1st
“Subsidizing a whole generation of SJWs was a big mistake. They are more entitled than ever”

+++

Not to worry “firsty”

The subsidies cant last forever…without taxes to support it…. no matter how “unfair” the “Universal Income” people believe it to be so in their delusional “utopia” of zero work= universal pay ( it used to be called Welfare until the social justice warriors decided that was too “Class” biased…).

Sept will be here before they know it…just as round two for the Fall flu season cranks up…
No more “free money” for rent or food…..cause the govt will be broke.
Then the fun will begin.
The tattoo parlours must be going bankrupt at an exponential rate…..
Food or tats = priorities.

:)

#270 JSS on 04.13.20 at 1:29 pm

I’d suspect a number of HELOC’s will be converted into a mortgage, and maybe some HELOC amounts may be reduced. Less risk for the banks.

Also, just wondering – since landlords will now assume more risk (tenants not paying rent, banks not lending the same as before), will rents go up in order to compensate for the additional risk.

#271 Stone on 04.13.20 at 1:30 pm

#254 Dharma Bum on 04.13.20 at 11:12 am
#222 Stone

What’s good for the goose is good for the gander?

The issue is simple: take money you don’t need in the midst of a national emergency when health care workers are short of protective equipment, the government’s broke and this will result in more tax? The social compact is broken. – Garth
——————————————————————-

Hey people, face it, it’s just WRONG to take the Trudeau handout if you really don’t desperately need it. Come on, do you really want to be taking the paltry crumbs from that slime bucket? Seriously.

Besides, every dollar taken by the citizenry, whether legitimately or not, will come back to haunt them. It’ll be a tax obligation that will build over years. It will be a permanent record of who the economically dependant and destitute are. Taking that stipend is nothing to be proud of. If you actually need it to survive a few months, shame on you. You have completely mismanaged your life. This is proof. If you take it even though you don’t need it, double shame on you.

“People go on postponing everything that is meaningful. Tomorrow they will laugh; today, money has to be gathered… more money, more power, more things, more gadgets. Tomorrow they will love – today there is no time. But tomorrow never comes, and one day they find themselves burdened with all kinds of gadgets, burdened with money. They have come to the top of the ladder – and there is nowhere to go except to jump in a lake.”

Osho

———

Pointless argument. People like money, especially when it’s free with no strings attached.

I’m not eligible for that pogey as I continue to be employed however I’m not a fool to recognize how this plays out.

Moral Hazard Warriors: 0 Pogey folk: 82 (billion)

#272 Figure it Out on 04.13.20 at 1:31 pm

#266 Bytor the Snow Dog

Awesome, a video linked from 4chan that EXPOSES THE CLINTONS! Nope, not watching that one either.

#273 Mattl on 04.13.20 at 1:31 pm

#143 Drill Baby Drill on 04.12.20 at 8:04 pm
Many many home owners are about to get a life lesson in mortgage financing and compound interest. Do not sit back and let the principle ride for six months you will never come out from under it.

———————————————————

Median mortgage is under 300K and there have to be lots of folks, like me, under 2%. I’m not deferring my mortgage but with interest rates where they are at I’m not sure a 3 or 6 month deferral is that much of a deal.

#274 Steve N on 04.13.20 at 1:46 pm

Justin “Pavlov candy” Trudeau

and when the candy is gone comrades, what then? Guns to shut you up?

Wake up this is not about a corona virus. The death rate is nothing out of the normal and as soon as we have enough statistics from around the world, this will become obvious and hopefully we will throw Justin out on his ass and take our country back. He is destroying our economy by the day like it was the black plague and nobody in power is brave enough to say so!! And forget about the mouthpiece journalists.

It is probably about saving his EU buddies who coincidentally were on the verge of going bankrupt when the virus hit Italy. Guess he wants us to be bankrupt too?

#275 Don Guillermo on 04.13.20 at 1:46 pm

#275 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.13.20 at 1:23 pm

The tattoo parlours must be going bankrupt at an exponential rate…..
Food or tats = priorities

********************************************
I’m betting on the tats. Their parents will make sure they have food and TP.

#276 not 1st on 04.13.20 at 1:58 pm

Ontario extending lockdown for another month? NYC is talking about lifting theirs. WTH.

Might as well the first province to default. Be a couple more right behind it.

#277 Sail away on 04.13.20 at 2:03 pm

#273 IHCTD9 on 04.13.20 at 1:06 pm

———-

Re: accepting freebies

I always harvest legal low-hanging fruit. It’s there, take it, end of story.

No guilt, no introspection. The government’s job is to choose what they take and what they offer.

When I get to negotiate the amount of tax they take, or weigh in on their decisions about where it’s spent, maybe then I’d consider voluntarily refusing an offer.

#278 Mattl on 04.13.20 at 2:06 pm

Exactly why we are a nation in distress. Citizens who care not about the nation. Sad. – Garth

————————————————————–
The focus on some guy that makes 60K a year taking 2K a month, because his company can’t carry him for 3 months, is completely missing the point.

How about a post on all the companies that didn’t save for a rainy day? About the Banks, who have made billions, so quick to shut down branches and eliminate employees. So the Bank gets bailed out, but the branch manager who is laid off can’t take the 2k per month because he was a saver?

I’m hardly a socialist but when are we going to ask these businesses to stand on their own, or let them fail. I am concerned that we don’t make anything in Canada anymore. We are completely dependent on debt fueled consumer spending – imagine if people actually started saving 10% of their income, what that would mean to GDP.

This clearly isn’t just a problem with the citizenry, or home owners. The system is broken.

#279 Calgary on 04.13.20 at 2:11 pm

Many years from now when we look back, the global lockdown could be a very big mistake. Biz permanently shut. Layoff workers stay unemployed. Bankruptcies and suicides the norm.

No V-shaped or U-shaped recovery. Everyone is hoping the economy will jump back up again. After lockdown was lifted, China struggled to restart its economy as its major markets(Europe & North America) are dead.

The vicious cycle feeds on itself. Extended lockdown is like committing seppuku.

#280 Steve N on 04.13.20 at 3:40 pm

If businesses fail, especially the little guys, then this means more candy can be handed out from the printing press (which by the way they want to take the candy completely digital- just look at Europe they are already looking openly at his thanks to this excuse of a corona pandemic). To get the candy they will need more information. You didn’t think it was “ask and no questions” did you? And it is the SMALL businesses that are destroyed.

Trudeau is racing us to a grave (housing too) over what will turn out to be a good drill (practice) for when a truly scary germ comes along which is good, but thank you for revealing to the public Justin just how much power you have – heck you even wanted and attempted to have no opposition for a year at first. What does that say ??

Investment behaviour will change from all this whether or not JT tries to take some freedoms away as of bonus.

#281 unbalanced on 04.13.20 at 3:41 pm

#273 IHTCD9…. Where do taxes come due shingling your own roof,FNR’s, fixing your own car. Please explain your rant.

#282 MichelMD on 04.13.20 at 4:40 pm

Quoting Bill Bonner: “Is money you don’t earn as good as money you do? We’re going to find out.”

#283 Wuhan we got y'all in check on 04.13.20 at 9:52 pm

I’ve never taken a govt handout in my life and to quote a wise man

“I’ve got money in the bank, I can still get high, that’s why my girlfriend thinks that I’m so fly”

#284 Christopher Lackey on 04.14.20 at 12:45 am

I noticed you wrote that 5 million Canadians “needed” the emergency pogey.

You might be missing quite a big group of people, who don’t necessarily “need it” to survive right now but that would take it, because they are eligible for it, no?

I don’t think people necessarily engage in this moral calculus when money is made so freely available…

#285 T pt 2 on 04.14.20 at 8:31 am

They are now requiring 20% down and a fico score over 700 to qualify for a new mortgage.

JPMorgan Chase’s profits fell by 69 per cent in the first quarter as America’s biggest bank prepared for a “fairly severe recession” by dramatically ramping up loan loss provisions while the global economy reels from the economic fallout of coronavirus.

The bank reported net income of almost $2.9bn for the three months ended in March, down from about $9.2bn a year earlier. Earnings per share of 78c were far worse than the $1.76 predicted by analysts contributing to a Bloomberg poll.

The fall in profits was primarily driven by a surge of almost $6.8bn in provisions for loan losses, which chief executive Jamie Dimon attributed to “the likelihood of a fairly severe recession”. Total loan provisions came in at $8.3bn for the first quarter of 2020, the highest since 2009 during the global financial crisis.

#286 John Doe on 04.14.20 at 10:22 am

Renters can’t be trusted? Renters deserve the same treatment as home owners.

Renters will get turfed sooner or later and the landlord will eat the loss, or sue. They can rent again, sell the property, or gift it to their kids.

Owning multiple homes has always been a risky investment. Where is it written that a second property is guaranteed to make money? That it will “appriciate”?

You are all risk takers. This time, you all lost.

Now you want security?

Buy a 3 month GIC.

#287 Steven Rowlandson on 04.14.20 at 1:43 pm

“So stop this yammering about a debt jubilee, kids. It’ll be exactly the opposite.”

Even hyperinflation’s end with currency and debt being restructured by knocking many zeroes off the total and issuing a new currency. Usually governments don’t have the sense to retire their debt using the newly printed debt free cash thus stabilizing the debt situation which means the debt crisis comes to a head and the debt and currency really does go for a dive. The system has a fluid stability as long as debtors pay down their debt…
When they don’t and allow it to get out of control then you have a problem.