By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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Today I’m going to mix things up, moving away from my typical boring market analysis content and instead focus on the science aspect of this corona virus and pandemic. I’m fortunate that my brother is a specialist in this field as he’s been incredibly helpful to me in understanding some of the key elements of this virus. Today he’s going to try to provide answers to some critical questions and concerns around this deadly virus.
A bit of background first. Dr Shawn Lewenza is an Associate Professor at Athabasca University and an Adjunct Professor at the University of Calgary. He is a microbiologist with 25 years of experience researching bacterial infections, with a focus on understanding how microbes cause disease and evade the immune response, as well as antibiotic resistance and discovery. Clearly he’s a real treat at dinner parties!
Shawn, can you tell our readers a little about the science and the progress related to the development of a vaccine for the COVID-19 corona virus?
There are many developments in the brief time since the beginning of this pandemic that are rapidly leading to a COVID-19 vaccine. The outbreak was officially reported from China on December 31, 2019, and the first genome sequence of the corona virus responsible for the initial cases was released on January 13. It was only 63 days later when the first vaccine candidate from the biotechnology company Moderna was injected into volunteer humans for phase I trials. This was a world record setting time to go from virus sequence to the start of phase I human trials. The first phase determines if there are protective antibodies made in response to the vaccine and tests safety in humans, while phase II will determine if the vaccine is effective to prevent infection. This company is testing a novel mRNA vaccine strategy, which highlights our openness to new approaches.
In total, there are over 50 candidate vaccines being developed worldwide, which include multiple vaccine strategies, and clinical trials have already started1. While a vaccine normally takes between 5-7 years to commercialize, most experts agree on a much tighter timeline of 12-18 months for a COVID-19 vaccine.
There are multiple $1 billion dollar COVID-19 vaccine projects, both by industry (Johnson & Johnson) and private investment. The Bill and Melinda Gates foundation has deep experience in vaccine development and has committed to the construction of multiple vaccine production facilities. Rather than waiting for trials to determine a winning formula, this bet hedging approach will produce several hopeful candidates, with the intention to deliver a billion doses of vaccine by the time the data from the clinical trials are out.
What is the concept of herd immunity and how is it relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic?
Herd immunity is the process whereby a majority of the population become immune to an infection, through recovery after a natural exposure. When the immune herd approaches 60-80%, there is a very low risk of continued spread and outbreaks. The percentage is higher for highly infectious viruses like measles, and rough estimates of 50-65% have been made for COVID-19. All evidence suggests that COVID-19 infections produce an effective immune response that should lead to protection for life. A vaccine would decrease the time necessary to reach herd immunity, but many outbreaks flame out before the vaccine has been developed. This was true for the SARS corona virus in 2002-2004. The silver lining, however, is that all the work done on the SARS vaccine is accelerating the development of the COVID-19 vaccine.
Are there potential antivirals that may support the recovery from the pandemic?
In addition to vaccines and the growing percentage of recovered patients, new and repurposed antiviral drugs are a major hub of activity in biotech and basic research labs worldwide. While we have many antibiotics to treat bacterial infections (also under threat due to antibiotic resistance), we have relatively few antiviral drugs. Viruses are small, minimalist entities, with few moving parts, which makes the design of antivirals more challenging.
The anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine was found to be effective in a small, clinical study that some have criticized. A repurposed drug like this one already has FDA approval, which shortens the path to actually using this drug in a new context. Despite the uncertainty, clinical trials are already underway. The normal restraints for identifying lead compounds have been greatly relaxed during this pandemic. In addition to drugs that target the virus, this pandemic is also highlighting the importance of drugs that dampen the immune response, which are another strategy to treat this infection. Many of the symptoms may be due to an overreactive immune response attempting to clear the infection.
What most impresses you about the response of the scientific community to this pandemic?
Because of the strict social distancing and self-isolation policies that we are successfully implementing in Canada, it does mean that many basic science labs are also shutdown. I have been really impressed with the volunteerism seen in many scientists who are committing their time, lab equipment and expertise to help with many aspects of the pandemic. COVID-19 testing relies on a relatively simple method that most grad students in molecular biology could perform, and there are many trainees actively carrying out these tests, in support of the public health labs.
This pandemic is a wakeup call to governments about the need to invest more in preparedness, and in research towards testing and vaccines. This coronavirus pandemic is similar to most outbreaks, where the source of the virus is from food animal production, and I think this outbreak will lead to many policy changes that will reduce the risk of future outbreaks.
References
1. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/record-setting-speed-vaccine-makers-take-their-first-shots-new-coronavirus
2. Read here if you would like to see a simple description of the how the corona virus hijacks our cells. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/11/science/how-coronavirus-hijacks-your-cells.html
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.
274 comments ↓
Rhino, thanks for coming out of your cave to write this Saturday post.
I live for new material.
You are my saviour…
M45BC
No Matter What
Our (entire way of living) you see today was built from DEBT.
Your Hospitals, Universities, Medical Laboratories, Roads, Schools, Houses, Cars, Restaurants, Malls, All of Garth’s paycheques from working for government, you name it…….
ALL BUILT FROM DEBT!!!
Stop worrying and go get you some DEBT and build something.
Happy Easter Weekend!!!!
Throwing your brother to the steerage wolves…..oh this is gonna be fun!
Trump wants better antibiotics!!
Ryan, please ask your brother if the virus Justin caught from Adrienne Arsenault, that makes him silence the last half of the last word of every sentence he utters, can be caught from the TV set!
I am afraid to listen to him for more than a minute per day. I d hat e to talk like t… .
Unfortunately the various programs including CERB, Wage Subsidy, Emergency Business Loans are being misused and the benefits claimed by people who are not eligible. There is so much fraud going on. I hope the Government audits every business owner who applies for these programs so that the taxpayer funds are not squandered.
One question ….
Why bother wasting billions on a vaccine when it attacks the people who are at 1 of 2 things….
Deaths door in older folks, and 2 people who are already not in good health?
If people took better care of their health maybe this “covid” scare wouldn’t be anything to worry about anyway.
I’ll say it here first.
We now have a Dr Influenza ;)
Happy Easter blog dogs.
Good summary.
Ryan did you ask what your brother’s exit strategy advice from this nightmare would be?
Smart family the Lewenzas!
Well since Germany has decided that “patient zero” contracted the Wu-Flu from a contaminated salt shaker…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-defences-i/pass-the-salt-the-minute-details-that-helped-germany-build-virus-defences-idUSKCN21R1DB
Experts have been working day and night to determine …. “How to pass the salt” safely….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nORRgU8sGdE
Simplejack, rest assured.
The world is a little safer today because of this video
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A potential real risk is the government shutting down our food supply. Evidence? Sure.
– Last week Maple Leaf Foods in ON stopped an entire plant when a worker got sick.
– In the GTA a large Longos supermarket is closed for two weeks after a worker got sick.
This is so easy to roll out, a simple report, suspected report or headline will close a store. Fear rules. Science not so much. Perfectly good food, not allowed to buy.
I’ve kind of been hinting at this since late last year. In fact I outright called it in September, December and more. Learn their moves. It’s not a fun game but it is essential in these times.
#49 TurnerNation on 09.10.19 at 8:54 pm
I beleive in my lifetime good foodstuffs will be trashed as armed men look on and people are starving. Maybe the correct karbon permit was not applied for, or the WHO claims dread disease and we comply. Trees have more rights than yourself.
…
#91 TurnerNation on 12.17.19 at 8:06 am
For years now I’ve stated a time will come whereby armed government men destroy perfectly good food stuffs while desperately hungry people look on. Maybe the WHO says there is a virus, or maybe the correct ‘carbon permit’ was not obtained beforehand
Ryan/Shawn – thank you for this information.
Thanks for the credible info. It’s in short supply.
Great post Ryan. I always look forward to the Saturday contributions to this blog.
Thanks to your brother for taking the time to provide interesting answers.
Smart politicians listen to smart Ph.D.’s & base their decisions on the best minds out there, not their own metrics…
Shawn,
You mentioned herd immunity. Shouldn’t there be a balance between herd immunity and the extreme self isolation policies? I mean we are still 12 months away from a vaccine and we can’t shut down the economy until then and it seems we are preventing the natural ability to build herd immunity in the population that would take place.
In good news: Tesla’s China factory built over 10,000 Model 3s in March.
Elon’s the man. Global diversification, baby.
And the ventilators he’s building are apparently amazingly better than existing ventilators.
How about this one Flop.
A more positive Corona virus song of the day
DEVO
‘Whip it’ live version
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQidM91CkXE
Athabasca University is online university? Great future of Canadian education is here. God bless the Queen.
kc “One question ….
Why bother wasting billions on a vaccine when it attacks the people who are at 1 of 2 things….
Deaths door in older folks, and 2 people who are already not in good health?
If people took better care of their health maybe this “covid” scare wouldn’t be anything to worry about anyway.”
Where to start with this one. First, it’s not just old people and those with poor health that are affected by this virus. Second, even if this were true shouldn’t we do everything we can to save these people. They are not just statistics or some number on a TV screen. They are real people with family and friends who want them to be safe and looked after. Third, many people who have the virus are asymptomatic, meaning they don’t feel the affects of the virus but have it and are spreading it unknowingly. Fourth, if we don’t develop a vaccine then this virus can keep coming in waves (until we reach herd immunity), which will destroy our economy for years to come. So a vaccine is absolutely necessary for a whole host of reasons. – Ryan L
#279 Steph yesterday – you exactly described a plan.
Learn from history. From 1994 (!) A scanned document describing cities’ efforts from all over Canada, what they are doing for UN (UNCED) sustainable development plan. We are almost 30 years later.
*Note I cannot vouch for this website linking it, I read only its document.
https://canadiantruths.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/municipal-primer.pdf
The latest poll shows that 58% of Americans feel that Communist China should pay a financial penalty for their actions re this virus-that is a very high number considering almost the entire MSM is opposed to this-my prediction is that we have passed Peak Popularity for Communist China in the west-politicians are going to realize that somebody is going to have to be blamed for this one and efforts to stick Trump with the bill are failing miserably-any politician that Communist China doesn’t own is going to start pointing the finger forcefully-bet on it.
Scary to think that science already knows that a vaccine is the only way out of it.
Very much like the moon missions in so far as what new technologies, and advancements, we are going to get in the medical field.
Necessity, being the mother of all invention, means we will need new economic policies as well.
Anything to do with debt, would be timely.
#6 kc on 04.11.20 at 12:46 pm
One question ….
Why bother wasting billions on a vaccine when it attacks the people who are at 1 of 2 things….
Deaths door in older folks, and 2 people who are already not in good health?
If people took better care of their health maybe this “covid” scare wouldn’t be anything to worry about anyway.
———
So, in other words, if we saw you dying on the sidewalk, we should just keep on walking, right?
Duly noted.
Interesting read, maybe posting about the virus will be reverse physiology to talk about Finance. Ha ha
BC stats is the government lying?
Please do not get me wrong I believe in social distancing and all that but something is not quite right
BC population 5.5 million
Total Cases as of yesterday 1,410
476 active and of those half are from retirement homes. Sounds good!
Tested 52,000
Even a simple guy like me extrapolating this means 1410 divided by 52,000 times 5.5 million means we have 149,000 people with this disease but we only have 50 cases a day. Something is very wrong? or they have it and no symptoms is this is what government assumes and why the economy is shuttered for many months?
New cases has been under 50 a day for a few days
So my question is how are these 50 contracting the disease why are we not being told?
Why is the government not telling us?
The 50 cases were they actually tested? Or are they counted because the pass the online test?
Who was tested and why were they selected?
Back to money talk
I listen to the voice recording very good.
One question based on everything we’ve been hearing millions out of work businesses going under, people cannot pay rent or mortgage. How do you see REITs as a bargain ? In my mind this sector will be the hardest hit? Especially if total recovery may be years away.
Two weeks ago I understood the logic of oil being at bottom and creating buying opportunity but I don’t see REITs.
Have a great weekend, thanks for reading.
T2 comes down the steps at the cottage like Moses from the mountain but with only one commandment a day. Such drama I can hardly wait for next new rule to follow to save us all .The networks know this is over dramatic but never shows or question the other parties in prime time . The opposition just lets it slide and wonder why a Saturday sitting in the house of commons is necessary even thou they had all week , because it makes T2 appear to be working over time dragging the reluctant opposition back to work . Oh the Humanity
#6 kc
NAILED IT!
We’re fatter then ever. Eating more sugar than ever. Being less active than ever. Now being forced to be less active by the government. Taking less car of ourselves.
Eating more fast food than ever – thanks high blood pressure. Number of people smoking is same or higher, sure lower % of population, but in terms of how many smoke – likely same or higher number of smokers. Add “cool” weed. Alcohol. Other recreational drugs.
You think this stuff is all free pass for your health with no consequences?
Covid-19 cometh to collect! Knock, Knock – it’s the green fog!
I know this may seem insensitive, but I’ve been paying attention to who they are rolling into the hospitals in NY on news reels, and I’m estimating 100lb overages on those people or more. Unfortunately it does appear racially skewed – because of the economic inequality there is much more likelihood that those people are in jobs where they can’t work from home – increasing their risk of contact, on top of their economically induced health challenges.
I don’t mean to paint Americans as fat. I actually don’t need to. It’s been done already by others, including their own internal American studies. You don’t think a whole whack of health issues follows weight alone?
I also want to point out something here. Not to belittle anyone’s clear experience in an area of science – which is by magnitudes higher than mine – obviously. However, the Bro is bacterial expert, not viral expert. It matters, because in these times, I want to listen to reality, facts, from absolutely top virologists on the plant – where the hell are they? Can one of them speak on their behalf please?
Personally, the more I read, the more I think about it, the more I doubt effective vaccine will come to this thing. We better get ready to suck it up, man up and give each other a nice juicy handshake and hug and deal with it. Come closer my brother! No, don’t cough into your shoulder or arm. Sneeze away!
None of the SARS viruses got a vaccine.
Common Cold virus doesn’t have one – still.
Flu virus vaccine is 40% effective or there about, more or less.
Viruses are a whole different ballpark to bacteria. Different league. I think they are the premiere league in fact.
The more I read about viruses, the more impressive they are to me. The more amazed I am at how clever they can be. Viruses are AMAZING! Viruses are AWESOME! I mean…talk about compact genius. You can’t deny their awe inspiring abilities.
Certainly more claver than our ability to keep up with them scientifically.
What movie should I watch tonight? How about “War of the Worlds” with Tom Cruise? Anyone want to come over to watch? No? You scared of me having a virus? See…viruses are the bee’s knees baby!
“And the ventilators [Elon’s] building are apparently amazingly better than existing ventilators.”
Well sure. Standard medical device makers aren’t visionary enough to add a fart mode. An obvious easter egg for a ventilator, bu only in hindsight. That’s why people call him a genius.
FYI
While there is much evidence that various vaccine strategies against SARS are safe and immunogenic, vaccinated animals still display significant disease upon challenge. Current data suggest that intranasal vaccination may be crucial and that new or combination strategies may be required for good protective efficacy against SARS in humans.
Thank you, Lewenza brothers, for this information!
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Corona virus are resistant to vaccines as they easily mutate as seen in common colds defying long term immunity on humans or a vaccine as a viable eradication strategy, Billy Goat Gates propaganda not withstanding. This virus is now mutating into a more virulent form as seen by symptomology variants from initial reported cases from China. Also CRISPR genetic insertions from non natural vectors suggest this as either a lab experiment sloppily released into the public sphere, or a variant bioweaponized virus. Multi nation investigations are uderway and will determine fault and if China or North Korea or other is to blame a pariah
state and permanent embargo will ensue globally. Qui Bono afterall?
There are at least 8 distinct covid
strains as proven in recent Iceland National survey. Immunity boosting through orthomolecular protocols have best outcome for herd immunity …
ergo vitamin and probiotic enhancements for the herd.
As a side note,
Wall Street and Bay Street have bifurcated and per usual permanent state policy expect welfare for the financial sectors and bankruptcy for Main Streeet. Market upturn is entirely artificial underpinned by massive floats fromT2 and your future tax revenues. Expect Canada to go on war footing with tax rates far exceeding current levels with semi permanent rationing of basic staples for the next few years. Expect a VAT tax at 25 per cent as in Euro Zone here soon.
It is hard not to come to awareness that Great Depression 2.0
here with 25 per cent of mortgage holders planning to send jingle mail by August to Banks and a million declaring personal bankruptcy by May 1 thr annual anniversary of communism.
Softball questions. Softball answers.
And dear Dr. Shawn, there’s no evidence that the lockdowns are either working or not working. None. And there never will be, despite the fearmongers stating it is working/did work.
Let’s isolate the vulnerable, stop delaying the development of herd immunity and get back to work.
The cure is worse than the disease.
When right wing dude come to power, first is attacked health care system and education.
Anybody who is opposed is label teacher or communist.
That’s why toilet paper supply is important. To soothe verbal diarrhea of right wing idiots.
Anyway, when this plague subdue, you’ll have The Rolling Stones concert and enough booze and marijuana to forget until next hit. Because Chinese wet markets are open, baby, again.
two strains or more?
——————
immurement
confirmed cases jan -april ….fast and furious indeed
1 to 2 to ~4000 in 2 months sars was just a warmup
china
jan 11 41 confirmed…. april 6 – 75 66 /april8 -86 tested – 83157 peak feb 13
pop. – 1,394,015,977 (July 2020 est.)
italy
jan 30th 2 confirmed april 6 4316 tested -132547 pop. 62,402,659 (July 2020 est.)
germany
jan 29 4 april 3677 tested 99225
80,159,662 (July 2020 est.)
france
jan 26 0 april 6&7th 1850 /3881 tested 73488
pop – 62,814,233
uk feb 2 april 5903 tested 51612
pop. 65,761,117 ~2020
ontario
Jan. 27, 2020: The National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg confirms that a man in quarantine in Sunnybrook Hospital is Canada’s first documented case of the new coronavirus.
===========
outsource or not
privatize profits / socialize losses?
private insurance
Health Minister Greg Hunt has effectively nationalised the country’s private hospital sector for the duration of the contagion crisis after promising to “guarantee the viability of private hospitals” which have lost most of their business after the government banned non-essential elective surgery.
Will the private health sector as able to sell itself as something worth paying extra for is going to be an interesting question,”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/from-jaws-of-death-to-lifeline-private-health-insurers-unexpected-windfall-20200403-p54gpk.html
Federal Industry Minister Karen Andrews says Australia needs to be self-sufficient in making essential medical kit, like face masks and ventilators, with the COVID-19 pandemic raising questions about the local manufacturing sector’s ability to deal with future crises.
“What we’ve learned out of this is that there are some things that we have to be self-sufficient in. So let’s not look to what’s going to give us the cheapest price,” Ms Andrews told The Age and the Herald.
“I think we’ve learned that manufacturing is an essential capability, that a nation needs to have its sovereign capability to address not only this crisis, but many other kinds of crises,” she said.
usa march 15th zero reporting april 6th 33,510 confirmed cases
italy
jan 30th 2confirmed april 6-4316 tested -132547
62,402,659 (July 2020 est.)
usa march 15th zero reporting april 6th 33,510 confirmed cases april 7th 26,493 –
These are the types of articles I enjoy reading. Nice to hear the opinion of someone positive and educated on the matter. Great write up.
Just got back from Fraser st.
Two block line up to get into Van City credit union.
All Boomers.
Don’t they know it’s Saturday…
M45BC
April 11, 2020 – from today’s papers
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/that-is-a-surprise-doctors-still-waiting-for-feared-surge-of-covid-19-patients-in-canadian-icus
But, perhaps surprisingly, critical-care physicians in the hardest-hit provinces say they have yet to face that feared surge of Coronavirus sufferers. So far, at least, there is no flood, and plenty of available ICU beds. The latest report from Ontario’s critical-care system on Friday showed just two additional coronavirus patients admitted to an ICU anywhere in the province the day before. Despite having to treat over 530 confirmed or possible COVID-19 people, almost 78 per cent of the province’s expanded intensive-care capacity remained free.
Let’s get real, the WHO and all the government projections for this “pandemic” were ridiculously wrong from day 1.
Tell me again, why did they kill the economy? For a disease that’s a bit more severe than the regular flu..
Truth is slowly coming out!
Ryan, can you ask your ‘bro’ to develop his last statement “I think this outbreak will lead to many policy changes that will reduce the risk of future outbreaks.” To what policy changes does he refer? Curious as the reference is to ‘future outbreaks’, not our prepardness to handle them.
Also, since he is resident in Calgary can he give us his take on why the number of cases is so significantly higher in Calgary versus Edmonton though the population numbers are very similar? (917 calgary versus 386 Edmonton)? We appear to have more of “something” in Calgary. What or who is it? While our ‘airport’ is still open, it doesn’t add up that Calgarians would travel more internationally to a level that would support the huge gap in numbers, though it is generally acknowledged that its citizens are more sophisticated and intelligent than their northern counterparts. Those from Edmonton coming home on an international flight arriving in Edmonton would still be counted in their home city, correct?
I used to think we’d be hooped if a massive earthquake hit the Pacific Coast.
Thanks to the events of this year.
Now I know we’re hooped if a massive earthquake hit the Pacific Coast…
M45BC
Think: when you go Metro, NoFrills, WalMart after disinfecting the cart and you pick a fruit and then pick another one and leave the first in the pile, when you approach or touch the plastic bags roll, when you pay with cash or with debit and enter the pin, do the cashiers swab the POS each time or each fruit…huhhh?? Who touched and stocked all the fruits??
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5907354/
The modeling studies estimated that workplace social distancing measures alone produced a median reduction of 23% in the cumulative influenza attack rate in the general population..
So for a mere 23% reduction in median attack rate your liberal government locked down a country and wanted extended Exceptional Measures, that were rejected yeterday by the Provincial Governors.
Does the Canadian federal government think that 99% of the population is comprised of idiots…They clearly do.. lol
Sorry, I have forced everyone to think a little bit, now everyone can continue their CBC/CTV scheduled programming for the 11:00 am daily Covid19 horror show..
2 thumbs up, more if I had any.
COVID-19 in Canada: https://virihealth.com/
By province: https://virihealth.com/provincial-trends/
Global spread: https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-04-10
——————
for data nerds:
data in public access: https://github.com/ishaberry/Covid19Canada
Direct link to excel spreadsheet (download):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D6okqtBS3S2NRC7GFVHzaZ67DuTw7LX49-fqSLwJyeo/export?format=xlsx
—
P.S. Love how this pandemic forced the fiscal arm to act. The central bankers have been talking the need for fiscal help for quite some time. Governor Poloz has done its move and is unlikely to go deeper in the short to mid term. It is up to Trudeau to make sure he keeps printing and don’t stop, but does he have the balls? 180B is not enough.
I do not like black dogs and ham
I do not like them, Sam I am
They whine, they blurt, they snivel, they assert
Detractors should be banished
When their feelings are hurt
I do not like black dogs and ham
I do not like them, Sam I am
Thanks for sharing Ryan.
In THIS post, I won’t get into whether COVID 19 exists or not.
People are not keeping their eye on the ball…NOBODY has come up with a credible plan on how the economy will recover.
Lets say this nightmare ended in a week, or a month…
THEN WHAT ????
neo “Shawn, you mentioned herd immunity. Shouldn’t there be a balance between herd immunity and the extreme self isolation policies? I mean we are still 12 months away from a vaccine and we can’t shut down the economy until then and it seems we are preventing the natural ability to build herd immunity in the population that would take place.”
I agree that we can’t wait 12 months for a vaccine and shut down the economy. The best way to build the immune herd is to combine the natural infections with a vaccine, which we don’t have yet. Sweden has opted for an alternative view to managing the outbreak, by not having shutdown the economy and no recommendations for strict self-isolation. While they have more cases and deaths than neighbouring countries, it remains to be seen if it will work for them, or will result in a regrettable tragedy. The other idea is to start testing those who have recovered with the antibody test and let those people go back to work and teach in schools. As a third option, one scientist made the interesting prediction to let people go back to work 2 days a week, everyone on the same 2 says, and stay in self-isolation for the remaining 5 days. – Shawn L
https://medium.com/@urialonw/containing-sars-cov-2-with-a-two-day-workweek-fbdea4030d30
Social distancing is preventing us getting herd immunity and guaranteeing we will have a second wave in the autumn.
Valiant effort to impart factual information to those who’ve immunised themselves against any intrusion by reality.
Maybe more effective if it was presented as a YouTube video.
nice read
Ryan , a few months ago you commented on prefeered shares as still a good asset class in a portfolio. I challenged you , provided its hitorical returns and its performance in 2008. That is increases volitilty and decreases returns in a portfolio. You disagreed
CPD ytd : -17%
your thoughts?
@#31 Figure it out
“Standard medical device makers aren’t visionary enough to add a fart mode. ”
+++
I’m just happy to know I cant be replaced by a robot quite yet….
I hope Shawn is correct but I have my doubts because of the confusion that is being creating in the public sphere via “social media”, which I include traditional main stream media and corporate agenda “press” releases.
This New Yok Times March 27, 2020 piece “The Religious Right’s Hostility to Science Is Crippling Our Coronavirus Response ~ Trump’s response to the pandemic has been haunted by the science denialism of his ultraconservative religious allies.” By Katherine Stewart author of “The Power Worshippers: Inside the Dangerous Rise of Religious Nationalism.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opinion/coronavirus-trump-evangelicals.html
This blog, “The Greater Fool” that Garth Turner so generously allows most people to opine in, is a good example of how “believers” will believe anything that suits their own bias which is usually cloaked in economic and personal financial terms. This works for those whose personal economy reflects their goals.
But the prime example of this ability to cognitively dissociate from reality on this blog is repeatedly shown every week by the anonymous Trump fans who love to elevate Trump to god status despite the fact that Trump is a pathological liar loved by the hard core Republican party’s libertarian agenda to, as Steve Bannon urges, “deconstruct the administrative state”. This is not new. The Republicans have been at this in earnest since after WW II and especially since the 1970’s.
Trump is following Putin’s playbook… take over the justice arm of government (Bill Barr), destroy free speech (fire or neutralize whistle blowers), belittle rational thought (Fox Media et al), block legislation that benefits the social contract (Moscow Mitch), release corporations from government scrutiny via deregulation and promote the fascist state with other autocratic regimes that elevate and reward those who comply by creating an oligarchy and place any opposition into an underclass by rigging the system (tilt the voting apparatus).
Sounds like projection to me. I would not be surprised if he blamed “god” for his pending decision, because every week we witness Trump shifting all blame to anyone or anything other than himself despite in this case of a global pandemic, he was warned by Obama’s outgoing administration and his own advisors in 2019.
The 2011 Canadian census counted only 24% of Canadians as having no religious affiliation. I don’t have the same hope as Shawn does especially when it comes to “policy changes” that interfere with the majority (76%) of our national epistemic ignorance.
AS an example, this weekend, BC Ferries Corp has been transporting Vancouver mainlanders et al over to Vancouver Island to repeat their annual easter-passover pilgrimage to join relatives.
Here is the history of global plagues and the “invention” of isolating carriers to slow the spread: https://www.history.com/news/pandemics-end-plague-cholera-black-death-smallpox
We’re in a deadly pandemic people, Stay Home. If you are asymptomatic travelling about, you are further spreading the Covid 19 virus in my neighborhood.
STAY HOME
It means that you are biased, or clearly have a hidden agenda..this is official news from today..
You actually think that if you don’t post it, people are not reading the online paper and can’t make a simple calculation.
April 11, 2020 – from today’s papers
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/that-is-a-surprise-doctors-still-waiting-for-feared-surge-of-covid-19-patients-in-canadian-icus
But, perhaps surprisingly, critical-care physicians in the hardest-hit provinces say they have yet to face that feared surge of Coronavirus sufferers. So far, at least, there is no flood, and plenty of available ICU beds. The latest report from Ontario’s critical-care system on Friday showed just two additional coronavirus patients admitted to an ICU anywhere in the province the day before. Despite having to treat over 530 confirmed or possible COVID-19 people, almost 78 per cent of the province’s expanded intensive-care capacity remained free.
Let’s get real, the WHO and all the government projections for this “pandemic” were ridiculously wrong from day 1.
Tell me again, why did they kill the economy? For a disease that’s a bit more severe than the regular flu..
#46 Dolce Vita on 04.11.20 at 3:07 pm
2 thumbs up, more if I had any.
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That’s the beauty of being an inbred Tasmanian, four thumbs come in handy…
Two Lewenza’s tag teaming in the comments section, yeah, it could be the end of the world…
M45BC
Thank you, Dr. Shawn Lewenza, and to Ryan for organizing this Q&A for his regular Saturday slot (which I look forward to each week). I appreciate hearing from informed experts.
As with other communicable diseases, medical professionals will come up with a vaccine to get this pandemic under control.
We as a society just need to buy them enough time to get there without having our ICUs being overwhelmed in the meantime.
#53 Sold Out on 04.11.20 at 3:22 pm
Valiant effort to impart factual information to those who’ve immunised themselves against any intrusion by reality.
——————-
Be sure to let the doctor know that hydroxychloroquine is a bunch of hokum, SO.
Haven’t you been quite vociferous (well, wordy) about that?
@ #6 kc
“One question…
If people took better care of their health maybe this “covid” scare wouldn’t be anything to worry about anyway.”
I would love for you to try to say that to my wife’s face, who has two autoimmune disorders (rheumatoid arthritis and lupus) that have left her with lung capacity about 60% of normal. Despite the joint deformation and other challenges that has left her unable to type a commercial speed among other issues, she works to this day as an administrative assistant, far below her intelligence and character for a take home pay not that far above the $2000 per month a hell of a lot of people are getting for sitting around the house in perfect health. Work that she is glad to have despite the difficulties she faces because it gives her life purpose and meaning and contribution.
There’s a hidden story behind the condition of most people in the world, which is why the major religions preach compassion and community building. But for the grace of God, so go you or I. Count your blessing and don’t be so quick to judge.
Is there a virus that would make Trudeau shut up and go away?
I was hoping for more from this article, specifically some info to calm a lot of peoples nerves, maybe kill rate for HEALTHY humans in 30-60 age group. You here so much garbage, and the younger people dying you never know how “healthy” they actually are.
Thanks for the post.
Gets a “D” fail for me.
Thanks for effort though.
This is a little different than before. Even if you have mild symptoms they want you tested, before they were just telling people to stay home and self isolate.
“With Ontario Premier Doug Ford calling for increased testing across the province, Hirji renewed his call for those exhibiting respiratory symptoms, even mild ones, to call public health for a COVID-19 assessment.”
https://www.wellandtribune.ca/news-story/9939282-have-a-runny-nose-niagara-public-health-wants-you-tested-for-covid-19/
#56 Brian Ripley on 04.11.20 at 3:27 pm
This blog… is a good example of how “believers” will believe anything that suits their own bias…
….despite the fact that Trump is a pathological liar…
[rant, rant, rant.. Trump, Trump, devil.. ad nauseam]
————–
Good work, BR. Rarely have we seen irrational bias so clearly demonstrated, haha.
I was just driving and the guy on the radio said there are…
47 lost jobs for every case of Covid-19?!
…so like about…
770 lost jobs for ever death due to Covid-19?!
Any feedback on what is an acceptable number here?
Do we lose 10,000 for every case of cancer?
Do we lose 100,000 for ever case of child killed in a car?
READY
> DOES NOT COMPUTE
> LOGIC ERROR
> RECALCULATE
#54 Freddy on 04.11.20 at 3:26 pm
Ryan , a few months ago you commented on prefeered shares as still a good asset class in a portfolio. I challenged you , provided its hitorical returns and its performance in 2008. That is increases volitilty and decreases returns in a portfolio. You disagreed
CPD ytd : -17%
your thoughts?
——————-
Poor form, bro. Using a financial disaster to try to prove your point. Unfair.
North Americans will not learn anything from this epidemic just as they didn’t learn anything from SARS.
They will be as obese as ever.
They will have more misplaced respect for the CCP than ever.
They believe in the recent rhetoric coming from Taylor Swift which actually works against what they want. The marriage rate about to fall off a cliff.
People are lost and about to become much poorer vaccine or no vaccine.
Their is a basic inability to prioritize coupled with feelings of entitlement stemming from the acceptance of mediocrity.
Our society is imploding as folks spend more than they make due to their false sense of reality.
Now that a public servant makes 150% of the private sector wage (including all remuneration such as the guaranteed gold plated pension) our society is making absolutely no sense whatsoever.
The people here want a Chairman Mao jacket. Problem is they will never be able to fit in one.
Ask your brother why bill gates has such a interest in vaccines?
Why is a software engineer handing out medical advice?
The head guy at WHO (he’s a Ethiopian) is extremely corrupt. He’s been in trouble before.
It will be a rainy day in hell that I give up my freedom to To some new power grab security controls put on us.
If new measures are put in after this so called pandemic, we are doomed. What a hell
Of a distraction this has been to 99 percent of the world. Wake up people! They should be quarantining the old and people with health issues. Not everyone so the whole world economy shuts down. This is called the lockstep simulation scenario. Time to move into the Bush.
Scientists say many more people than previously thought could have acquired coronavirus immunity after discovering 15% of people in city dubbed ‘German Wuhan’ could be carrying antibodies.
“If 15 per cent of people do have antibodies, Germany’s actual death rate could be as low as 0.37 per cent – five times lower than the current level.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8206831/Europe-close-herd-immunity-coronavirus-ALREADY.html
Upcoming Property Tax hikes, what’s really going on Boys?
Yesterday I had reported to me the largest law enforcement (city and province) presense in the GTA, seen since the G20 days.
But today downtown midtown and central, on roads and highways – as I saw myself – zero patrols were seen. None. Nada.
What’s the difference?
Yesterday one could collect full Statutory Holiday overtime pay.
Whereas today, one could stay home with family.
Learn the rules lads. Learn the rules.
27 Stone on 04.11.20 at 1:58 pm
So, in other words, if we saw you dying on the sidewalk, we should just keep on walking, right?
Duly noted.
XXXXXXXXX
At 52 I don’t care. if I am dying bury me where I drop. Now if it’s the Ebola, you will know cuz that is about the only thing that I am actually scared of (just set me on fire as I don’t want to infect others) …..
Yep Ebola and rattle snakes ….
Other than that, I don’t buy into flu shots, or that we need a vaccine for every sniffle that comes our way….
Haven’t been laid up more than a day in bed in 20 years…. you take care of what you put in your body and how you take care of it and you will stay healthy.
G. Carlin had it straight goods about germs….
30 YouKnowWho on 04.11.20 at 2:02 pm
Fully agree….. CHEERS
Can the Lewanza bros please comment on the Deaths of Despair caused by the structural damage to the economy being done by the shut downs? And why these deaths are somehow more worthy of massive civil liberty infractions while other preventable deaths aren’t?
Ryan wrote above that “shouldn’t we do everything possible to stop those deaths”? I ask you, shouldn’t we do everything possible to prevent other deaths to? Where does it end? Where do you draw the line?
I think you draw it at committing economic suicide and having police officers harrass people for playing on their front lawn (happening here in the UK right now).
I guess some won’t be happy until massive civil unrest happens because a few ignorant overzealous cops push the wrong people too far.
****INSURANCE*****$$$$$$*****BLEEDING****
Was driving around the other day and heard one of THE major Tennis events has collected over $200 Million in payouts due to cancellation (annual premium was around $3 Million). They will still lose as annual revenues for the event are around $400 Million.
I was actually pondering the fiscal state of the INSURANCE industry, given they were already retreating from the CONDO market.
QUESTION:
How many other groups/ events /individuals etc. have claims pending ala “Act Of God” events whose payouts will bankrupt the insurers ???
Great article. Much better than constantly hearing and reading doom and gloom. When this ends most of us won’t be taking life’s many pleasures for granted. Hugs and kisses from family and friends will be appreciated more.
Where to start with this one. First, it’s not just old people and those with poor health that are affected by this virus. Second, even if this were true shouldn’t we do everything we can to save these people. They are not just statistics or some number on a TV screen. They are real people with family and friends who want them to be safe and looked after. Third, many people who have the virus are asymptomatic, meaning they don’t feel the affects of the virus but have it and are spreading it unknowingly. Fourth, if we don’t develop a vaccine then this virus can keep coming in waves (until we reach herd immunity), which will destroy our economy for years to come. So a vaccine is absolutely necessary for a whole host of reasons. – Ryan L
>>>
Ryan L, vaccines for these type of viruses prove to be ineffective and short term. Look at flu – need a hit every season, or maybe even 2 hits. Plus they basically suck in effectiveness overall. Coin flip basically.
Catching Covid-19 now for the young would be an effective vaccine for life most likely.
So while your question is quite valid on ethical and moral grounds of looking after the weak and the old, I give you this question to counter:
Should we sacrifice the youth, their likely permanent immunity with minimum consequences to them for the duration of their lives, at a price of saving those who have either neglected their bodies by choice (food/smoking/drugs/inactivity) or worn out their bodies due to milage?
For crying out loud…how much “blood” are we going to suckle out of the youth of this world for the wrinklies?
I’m telling you Ryan, this will turn into a generational war really soon. I see the joggers, the parks, the bike paths already. The young are starting to figure it out that odds are with them on this one in a big way.
To put it another way, if this was Hold’em, the young would be INSANE not to call this hand all-in and to instead yield to the bluffing wrinkles and those who took their bodies for granted. In % terms, it’s not even a 1 outer on the river!
This whole thing is yet another big economic loss for the young.
The wrinkles stand no chance of winning this hand if it ends up being played that way. BUT – they are making all the rules to the game. How much longer with the young agree to play it?
They should agree to lose now. Lock themselves in their self quarantine and wait this out, while the young go out and built herd immunity. THAT is the way this should play out.
Yeah, some people who have neglected their bodies will pay the price, but what did they think? They could have their cake and eat it too? Did they really think that smoking/alcohol/weed/non-activity/over weight/bad food had no consequences?
Indeed, some innocent with underlying conditions will die. Nature is cruel like that. This process happens in every living thing on the planet. As usual, it only matters when it happens to humans, because we only care about ourselves. We don’t care about the plant, tree, dog, monkey that dies.
Poor form, bro. Using a financial disaster to try to prove your point. Unfair.
…………….
You mean like the financial disaster in 2008, in which preferred shares got crushed?
the point is to use history to aid in financial decisions. Some do, others dont
how is that ‘unfair’? lol
Robert F Kennedy Jr has pointed out that Bill Gates paralyzed 496000 children in India through his vaccination campaigns, causing Gates’s agency to be expelled from India-I guess now Robert F Kennedy Jr is a Conspiracy Theorist for pointing out these facts https://thebl.com/us-news/robert-f-kennedy-jr-answers-bill-gates-on-the-dangers-of-a-mandatory-ccp-virus-vaccine.html
#61 Keith on 04.11.20 at 3:40 pm
Sorry to hear about your wife. she didn’t ask for the conditions she has. she has no choice, and has to play the hand she was dealt. i am/was more directing my comments to the ones who indulge in their own demise.
no ill words meant to personally attack anyone.
sorry if i was taken out of context.
#40 Flop… on 04.11.20 at 2:43 pm
Just got back from Fraser st.
Two block line up to get into Van City credit union.
All Boomers.
Don’t they know it’s Saturday…
M45BC
Va city ahead of urve with No Interest creditcard and loans, LOCredit, etc. Maybe overcharging by big bamks is over?
Ps:: those tents behind hospital at 33 and oak/cambie , vancouver bc ( think you mentioned them in prior post) is a new drive through virus testing facility. Open now. Shhh, big secret heard here on Garths blog!
Ps:: Great big thanks for bringing stellar Dr. brother in, & to Garth ( & the ever lovely Dorothy !!)
Thank you for Shawn’s explanation.
Surely your brother had a criticism of how this pandemic is being handled? Not enough print space?
For example…is the acclaimed “herd immunity” being unnecessarily delayed due to imposed isolation? Especially since SARS knowledge is reducing timelines?
#77 Spectacle on 04.11.20 at 4:48 pm
#40 Flop… on 04.11.20 at 2:43 pm
Just got back from Fraser st.
Two block line up to get into Van City credit union.
All Boomers.
Don’t they know it’s Saturday…
M45BC
Va city ahead of urve with No Interest creditcard and loans, LOCredit, etc. Maybe overcharging by big bamks is over?
Ps:: those tents behind hospital at 33 and oak/cambie , vancouver bc ( think you mentioned them in prior post) is a new drive through virus testing facility. Open now. Shhh, big secret heard here on Garths blog!
Ps:: Great big thanks for bringing stellar Dr. brother in, & to Garth ( & the ever lovely Dorothy !!)
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Hey Speckie, yeah been driving by that assessment site for about the last 3 weeks.
Seems like more police than prospective patients.
I thought it was originally for the public, but I slowed down and read the sign.
It stated.
Satellite Assessment Site For Health Care Workers…
M45BC
You realize, of course, that a virus is not a bacterial infection.
There is debate as to whether or not a virus is actually alive.
This particular virus is one of seven Corona viruses that infect humans. Four are harmless cold viruses. The other three are MERS, SARS and this one, SARS-2.
Corona viruses are all RNA viruses.
There has never been a successful vaccine developed for an RNA virus. Reason? They are sloppy at copying themselves and make a lot of mistakes. Result is they constantly mutate.
They are focussing on making a vaccine which can mock the SARS-2 spike protein which binds to the ACE-2 receptor on cells located in the human respiratory system. The hope is that the spike protein will not mutate and that human anti bodies will recognize a mocked up one.
There is a very interesting relationship between vitamin D deficiency and this virus. COVID-19 is essentially a cascading failure of our own immune system over responding to the SARS-2 virus. The result is pneumonia.
#62 Alberta Ed on 04.11.20 at 3:47 pm
Is there a virus that would make Trudeau shut up and go away?
Yes, it is called a Federal election. Please call your MP and ask them to get it going. One problem, I expect the Cons to lose a ton of seats. Might not help with JT , but it will help with the “faux rage” that 70 percent of Canadians are sick of. CBC blog is infected and so is this site.
I share many people’s concern with what this is doing to the economy and I fear the outcome could be dire. But there is a deep “fog of war” surrounding this virus. I don’t think anybody fully understands it. But it is not “just another flu”. It is much more viral and faces a population largely with no immunity to it.
The latest tactic of those who are immune to logic and mathematics is too say “Look! The cases and deaths are lower than forecast! The models were all crap! They lied to us again!” But those models were based on a “do nothing” scenario. If anything all this discrepancy does is lend credence to the idea that maybe social distancing and self isolation worked more or less as intended.
It is akin to the people who think the 2000 computer bug was a hoax because the lights didn’t go off. But this logic does not account for the 1000’s of Cobol programmers who were pulled out of retirement to fix the problem in the years leading up to 2000. A huge effort was made to avoid the problem, but most people remain blissfully unaware of that effort because they were not involved. A further group says “my PC was fine ergo it was a hoax” but PC’s were never at risk of the problem and won’t be until the year 10,000 because they use a different date system than was common in the 50’s. Back then computer resources were scarce so it was common to only use 2 digits to represent the year.
So this covid thing is a good time to remind ourselves that most of the time we really don’t know what is going on, and that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, not only because of what you can do with it but also because of what you can get wrong by jumping to conclusions.
The fact of the matter is that covid has moved to the #1 cause of death in the US in a matter of just a few short months. This also validates the models. Will it stay at #1 for any length of time? Probably not and results from other countries indicate it should start to decline soon. But had nothing been done we don’t really know what could have happened. What we know is that the people who study such things thought it could be bad, and they were in the best position to make such forecasts, not a bunch of amateurs reading Zerohedge.
Herd immunity is what nature has given us. The ability of creatures to create antibodies and memorize how for life is better than any vaccine that will ever be made.
Somehow, I think it will come down to this.
It’s like trying to pick stocks. It comes back to the mean in the long run.
Thanks for sharing Lewenzas.
More like it should be a wake up call to voters to elect competent government leaders. Ones who don’t react to a pandemic by using identity politics as the basis for decisions like not implementing travel bans because they are racist. Or electing leaders who’s favorite country is a communist dictatorship (China) and second favorite country is also a communist dictatorship (Cuba). We should also elect leaders who put Canada first and do not send all out personal protective equipment to China after we already know there is a significant threat here and we are low on these same supplies for our own front line medial workers. We should not elected leaders who hide in their basements for the first 30 days of the biggest crisis to hit our country in a century. We should elect leaders for more than a famous last name and nice hair. This poor decision by a minority of naive Canadian voters has cost us all dearly.
#86 Wait There on 04.11.20 at 5:08 pm
Not exactly.
Immunity is only given if one is able to defeat the infection.
This doesn’t take into account the agony some the infected might have to endure, the long lasting effects if one is able to survive, and that immunity may only last a little while since pathogens are always mutating.
Herd immunity can come about, but only after many are infected, perish, or suffer.
MF
#77 Freddy on 04.11.20 at 4:43 pm
Poor form, bro. Using a financial disaster to try to prove your point. Unfair.
——————-
You mean like the financial disaster in 2008, in which preferred shares got crushed?
the point is to use history to aid in financial decisions. Some do, others dont
how is that ‘unfair’? lol
——————–
It’s unfair because it’s too early to know anything. We know preferreds dropped, but will they stay down or was it a flash that will recover? In 2008, preferreds recovered.
Too early. Give it time. Don’t gloat yet.
Re: COVID 19
Remember..
—-Life is a sexually transmitted disease
—-it is Terminal
— ending in Death
(…..hence Bill Gates is busy finding a vaccine ?!? )
Ryan, this is exactly the kind of information that’s missing from the daily scoldings conducted by our elected officials and their unelected medical officers. Maybe that’s changed, but I don’t know – we stopped watching the news over a week ago. Thanks muchly.
I went to work yesterday because I could, not because I needed to.
When you work in residential construction, days like yesterday, when I was the only person on site, are good for spending a bit of time working in the hallway and stairwell of a house.
If I want to get kicked in the bum, and have someone stand on my tool every five minutes, I just come to this blog’s comment section…
M45BC
“I think this outbreak will lead to many policy changes that will reduce the risk of future outbreaks.”
Voters need to make sure this happens! Write lots of letters to your representatives.
LOL Brian Ripley is the definition of projection.
A vaccine would be nice but is too far off.
A week or so ago APN01 was a promising looking treatment but any news of this has fallen off. It was in stage 2 testing after successful lab testing for which it was found to stop reproducing from cell to cell in its host.
Sure hope this can get fast-tracked. Does the good brother have any info on this?
#60 Sail Away on 04.11.20 at 3:38 pm
#53 Sold Out on 04.11.20 at 3:22 pm
Valiant effort to impart factual information to those who’ve immunised themselves against any intrusion by reality.
——————-
Be sure to let the doctor know that hydroxychloroquine is a bunch of hokum, SO.
Haven’t you been quite vociferous (well, wordy) about that?
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
I will confidently reiterate my position, which is that there is no evidence of efficacy from any study that meets the “randomized, double-blind” gold standard that any drug is held to. If there was, we’d be reading about it now, wouldn’t we?
Do you rely on anecdata to call up bridge spans, or do you defer to rigorously examined and proven tables or formulae?
We may, … just perhaps, end up as a proverbial burnt toast! So goes a jest in this oped, …
… The belief that it is worth sacrificing anything and everything at the altar of flattening the coronavirus curve is foolish. But many leaders are behaving that way. We need a clearer picture of all that is at stake before those at the helm burn down the village to save it. […]
… Many difficult decisions lie ahead. We stand the best chance of making good decisions if we consider everything at stake, and not only the singular goal of reducing Covid-19 deaths.
Best,
F.S. – Calgary, AB.
Lockdowns Won’t Stop the Spread
Stopping the coronavirus and protecting the economy are one and the same, but it is too late to do either.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/lockdowns-wont-stop-the-spread-11586474560?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/wvheErK575
#77 Freddy on 04.11.20 at 4:43 pm
Poor form, bro. Using a financial disaster to try to prove your point. Unfair.
…………….
You mean like the financial disaster in 2008, in which preferred shares got crushed?
the point is to use history to aid in financial decisions. Some do, others dont
how is that ‘unfair’? lol
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Please don’t engage Sail Away in any conversation.
He’ll just end up telling us how he’s made a gazillion dollars this year (in a down market at that), used the virus to cheat his employees out of proper severance, went boating with the dogs and then climbed brokeback mountain and then to end the day he tipped a peasant $300 to tie his shoe for him (actually velcro).
so do the wealthy healthy ($$means) spread it over to the poor unhealthy?
the south is going into winter and Flu … should get interesting
76 YouKnowWho on 04.11.20 at 4:32 pm
see odious debt and the debt jubilees
=======================
sanctions vs loan embargo’s –
The key to a loan embargo is a concept known as “odious debt.”
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/odious-debt-when-dictators-borrow-who-repays-the-loan/
..”Numerous other dictators have borrowed from abroad, expropriated the funds for personal use, and left the debts to the population they ruled. Under Mobutu Sese Seko, the former Zaire accumulated more than $12 billion in sovereign debt while Mobutu diverted public funds to his personal accounts (his assets reached $4 billion in the mid-1980s) and used them to retain power by paying cronies and military expenses. Similarly, when Ferdinand Marcos lost power in 1986, the Philippines owed $28 billion to foreign creditors, while Marcos’s personal wealth was estimated at $10 billion.
so many examples here
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/
https://www.icij.org/investigations/panama-papers/crumbling-economies-must-tackle-tax-evasion-to-tackle-coronavirus-crisis-experts-warn/
I can’t figure this out. Why is it we will do pretty much anything to save a life in this pandemic no matter the cost financial and to enjoyment of life, but we won’t ban tobacco smoking? We make marijuana legal? Little is spent on road safety compared to the deaths car accidents cause. Why don’t we have better driver training and get older less safe cars off the road for example. We allow people to eat themselves to death with obesity and poor eating habits (many of whom are the people that will die from complications with the virus). It boggles the mind there is such low hanging fruit to save lives but nobody is concerned about it until it is a virus. I get some things only kill the person who makes the choice but some do not. There is plenty of innocent victims of second hand smoke, car accidents kill innocent people daily and if our hospitals are filled with people with smoking caused lung cancer and health issues caused from poor eating habits like diabetes it impacts us all. If we banned smoking and let the virus rip we may have less deaths.
None of this squares with what Karen posted on Facebook.
@79 kc
Apology accepted. It’s a good point that a healthier society costs less in health care costs at all times, not just in a crisis.
Thanks Lewenzas.
As appreciated as the work of virologists and epidemiologists et al is, we used to realize that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Given the borrowed trillions that are being spent due his virus, it’s more like an ounce of prevention is worth 1,000 tons of cure. There are certainly immediate questions surrounding the public health aspect, but we don’t live in a technocracy. At some point the voices of those who need to get back to work need to be heard, and the economic effects of having borrowed so much money just to see us through a few months need to be determined and mitigated. In turn this will lead to social and political impacts that can’t at the moment be predicted. The longer this shutdown goes on, the more dangerous it becomes to our societies in the long term.
There also needs to be a reckoning with the free flow of trade and people from places where this sort of virus can arise. It can’t be business as usual. The open borders, free trade crowd need to develop a sense of realism. The theory of comparative advantage, on which free trade policies are based, makes massive assumptions, one of which is that there are no externalities to trade. I think 4-6 trillion spent trying to mitigate a foreign virus, not even to mention the deaths, is as big an externality as can be imagined, and even the most rabid anti-free trader from the 80s would’ve been laughed at had they tried to get people to imagine what’s happening now. The interconnected, just-in-time, debt-ridden ways of government, business, manufacturing, and even personal finance need to be reassessed or we risk worse.
We absolutely can’t have ‘prevention’ as a goal at this point. Prevention is impossible now, since the virus is invisible there will always be a percentage chance it exists in a given volume of air or on a surface area, and you can’ t know. It’s not like pregnancy, which has a sure-fire, guaranteed prevention method (which is rendered almost ineffective by beer and bad music, but that’s a separate point). Once it’s here, you can’t prevent it.
Ryan, I’m a firm believer in the 60/40 Garth/Ryan/Doug portfolio, but don’t you think there is room for instruments like leveraged and inverse assets as a small (2-3%) percentage of a portfolio to mitigate these events? Sure someone not stupid enough to sell into the storm won’t lose, but isn’t there still a long-term impact on the rate of return, which is the biggest factor in determining portfolio growth over the long term?
DELETED
@#85 Stupid-19 on 04.11.20 at 5:08 pm
I share many people’s concern with what this is doing to the economy and I fear the outcome could be dire. But there is a deep “fog of war” surrounding this virus. I don’t think anybody fully understands it. But it is not “just another flu”. It is much more viral and faces a population largely with no immunity to it…
___________________________
meh, you come off just as dumb and preachy as the conspiracy theorists on here
Fraud on 04.11.20 at 12:45 pm
Unfortunately the various programs including CERB, Wage Subsidy, Emergency Business Loans are being misused and the benefits claimed by people who are not eligible. There is so much fraud going on. I hope the Government audits every business owner who applies for these programs so that the taxpayer funds are not squandered.
—
Don’t worry yourself too much about it.
The government is a bigger fraud than all of the other fraudsters combined.
They’ve managed to leave a whole lot of taxpayers out in the cold with their CERB criteria.
Bailouts for all or for none.
65 Sail Away on 04.11.20 at 3:53 pm sez:
“#56 Brian Ripley on 04.11.20 at 3:27 pm
This blog… is a good example of how “believers” will believe anything that suits their own bias…
….despite the fact that Trump is a pathological liar…
[rant, rant, rant.. Trump, Trump, devil.. ad nauseam]
————–
Good work, BR. Rarely have we seen irrational bias so clearly demonstrated, haha.”
———————————————————
Were you around when Ripley suggested that Mommies get “proxy votes” for each child during elections?
Oh yeah, super genius this guy be.
I can’t believe that some idiots thought that by deferring their mortgage payments was like free money. And those same idiots blame the banks for taking advantage of them by asking the money to be paid back. Unbelievable!
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/banks-charge-interest-on-interest-for-mortgage-payment-deferral-1.5529399
#72 kc on 04.11.20 at 4:29 pm
27 Stone on 04.11.20 at 1:58 pm
So, in other words, if we saw you dying on the sidewalk, we should just keep on walking, right?
Duly noted.
XXXXXXXXX
At 52 I don’t care. if I am dying bury me where I drop. Now if it’s the Ebola, you will know cuz that is about the only thing that I am actually scared of (just set me on fire as I don’t want to infect others) …..
Yep Ebola and rattle snakes ….
Other than that, I don’t buy into flu shots, or that we need a vaccine for every sniffle that comes our way….
Haven’t been laid up more than a day in bed in 20 years…. you take care of what you put in your body and how you take care of it and you will stay healthy.
G. Carlin had it straight goods about germs….
30 YouKnowWho on 04.11.20 at 2:02 pm
Fully agree….. CHEERS
———
So, I was right about you yesterday. You’re dumb as bricks and you need to follow doctor’s orders and take your meds.
And, if you already don’t care at 52, your life must really suck.
Happy Easter everybody!
In spite of what a lot of the comments on here say I believe we all stereotype groups of people. My ex in-laws are all Canadian and I winter in Florida surrounded by Canadians.
This article is how I’ve always and continue to picture Canadians and felt a need to share it.
I must add that I feel you’ve taken it to far and will regret voting and re-electing an Obama type leader. But like us in the States you’ll learn to regret it and get back to normal.
To all Canadians I offer best wishes, best health and the best of luck.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/10/told-my-landlord-i-cant-pay-rent-due-to-coronavirus-how-he-responded.html
New bank levy must be used effectively in fight against dirty money11 March 2020, London – Commenting on today’s announcement by the UK Chancellor that a new levy will be imposed on UK banks to tackle dirty money, Ava Lee, Senior Campaigner at Global Witness, said:
“Today’s announcement that the government will introduce a levy on banks to tackle money laundering is very welcome. As the news of another Unexplained Wealth Order showed again yesterday, the UK is often at the heart of international corruption investigations. The money raised must be used to bring the real owners of UK properties, companies and trusts into the light, by reforming Companies House, introducing a register of the real owners of properties without delay, and giving law enforcement the resources they need to investigate and prosecute people who don’t play by the rules.”
=========
March 4, 2020 – Washington, D.C.: Today, experts on money laundering and financial investigations, including two Global Witness staff, filed an amicus brief in support of Congress’ authority to subpoena Donald Trump’s financial documents from Deutsche Bank and Capital One. The Supreme Court has scheduled oral arguments for this case for March 31, 2020.
Our brief speaks to Congress’ legislative power and the importance of subpoenas and investigations for Congress’ ability to create strong anti-money laundering laws. It is a historic moment for the fight against illicit money in the US. Global Witness joins other financial and money laundering experts in urging the Supreme Court to side with Congress.
Stefanie Ostfeld, Deputy Head of Global Witness’ US office, said:
“Global Witness has uncovered corruption, money laundering and illicit financial transactions across the world, including in the US, for over 25 years. Time and again, we see how the corrupt and other actors take advantage of money laundering loopholes in the US to hide, steal or spend dirty money.
As the Supreme Court takes on this historic case, it must affirm Congress’ right to subpoena financial documents, whether or not they involve the President. Understanding how money laundering works is critical to passing reforms needed to protect the US financial system from corrupt influence.
For over a decade, Global Witness has fought for anti-money laundering reforms to make it more difficult for illicit actors to exploit aspects of the global financial system to launder their ill gotten gains.
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/congress-must-have-power-subpoena-financial-documents/
#86 Wait There
Herd immunity is what nature has given us. The ability of creatures to create antibodies and memorize how for life is better than any vaccine that will ever be made.
————————–
You don’t seem to grasp how vaccines work. Nobody wanted to wait around for a herd immunity to develop against smallpox. It was an utterly horrifying disease.
Notice I use the word ‘was’. Smallpox is now gone from the world because a vaccine allowed immune systems to mount a defense against it without the necessity of an often fatal brush with hell.
PS..
It should be noted that only one country ran an extended “do nothing” experiment with covid-19: China. This was probably because at first they didn’t know what they were dealing with. And what happened? The hospitals overflowed very quickly and the death count skyrocketed to the point the crematoriums couldn’t keep up with the bodies. They also as a result did the first isolation experiment, in a draconian way, and it seemed to work to at least slow the death rate. But they still have a long road ahead, as do we.
So our experts had a lot of real world data to base their models on. The fact that we have, for now anyway, avoided overloading our health care system as happened in China should probably be looked at as a time when they finally got something right rather than with further scorn.
Those same experts have been warning us for years that something like this was going to happen sooner or later, and that we were unprepared. Right again on both counts.
So at this point it is experts 3, skeptics 0.
Will it be worth the costs? That I do not know. Virology and economics are 2 different fields. But I am betting leaders talked to experts in both fields before proceeding. Trump is a business man so I am sure he had several scenarios run and implemented the one that gave him the best chance of reelection in November.
It could have been Scenario A “do nothing” with predicted results of overwhelmed hospitals and a high death count (there is an economic cost to that due to lost productivity and expertise) and everyone staying home for 2 weeks anyway because they are either sick or too afraid to come out of the house, vs. Scenario B “take action” which might at least save the hospitals and probably hasn’t got much more economic impact than Scenario A.
Folks, think about it for a second. In the do nothing scenario the airlines would still all be grounded. The cruise industry would still be in port. Pubs might still be open but would they get enough customers to pay the bills? Would you want to go to work if you could avoid it? Would you sign your kid up for soccer or send him to school? The fact is that this virus was going to have a huge economic impact no matter what, because people would have responded to it more or less as they are now. Years from now we will be able to read huge amounts of research on whether the isolation and bailouts worked or didn’t work, most of it crap, but I think we can agree at this point it was worth trying because the alternative was potentially just as grim. Dead people don’t pay taxes or go on cruises. And from a political point of view, the government needs to appear as if it is doing something even if the net result is same-same.
Stay safe everyone and donate to your local food bank if you can. They are being swamped like a Costco at open.
#78 BrianT on 04.11.20 at 4:44 pm
Robert F Kennedy Jr has pointed out that Bill Gates paralyzed 496000 children in India through his vaccination campaigns, causing Gates’s agency to be expelled from India-I guess now Robert F Kennedy Jr is a Conspiracy Theorist for pointing out these facts https://thebl.com/us-news/robert-f-kennedy-jr-answers-bill-gates-on-the-dangers-of-a-mandatory-ccp-virus-vaccine.html
Garth, why do you allow this garbage to be published?
I clicked the link and Googled the damning “496000 children” part.
Everything is one or two days old and consists of Facebook garbage, Twitter garbage and websites I’ve never heard of and would be safe in saying are purveyors of garbage. Even r/conspiracy has a swing at it.
Not one mainstream news site has this in any form, not right, left or center. All of the sites are publishing very similar stories, almost as if they are copying it verbatim from somewhere else. Even hardwarezone.com, that bastion of fair and independent news reporting.
And on page three of Google search results we find tigerdroppings.net. Another bastion of truth…
I made it to page 4 or 5 where the Russian disinformation sites start popping up…not a mainstream national or local news website in 5 pages reporting this drivel.
BrianT (or is it Ivan?), you should be ashamed of yourself.
#65 Sail Away on 04.11.20 at 3:53 pm ………… As one of Trump`s supporters proudly said, ” I know he lies, but I trust him”
Last Gasp “Corona virus are resistant to vaccines as they easily mutate as seen in common colds defying long term immunity on humans or a vaccine as a viable eradication strategy, Billy Goat Gates propaganda not withstanding. This virus is now mutating into a more virulent form as seen by symptomology variants from initial reported cases from China. Also CRISPR genetic insertions from non natural vectors suggest this as either a lab experiment sloppily released into the public sphere, or a variant bioweaponized virus. Multi nation investigations are uderway and will determine fault and if China or North Korea or other is to blame a pariah
state and permanent embargo will ensue globally. Qui Bono afterall?
There are at least 8 distinct covid
strains as proven in recent Iceland National survey. Immunity boosting through orthomolecular protocols have best outcome for herd immunity …
ergo vitamin and probiotic enhancements for the herd.
As a side note,
Wall Street and Bay Street have bifurcated and per usual permanent state policy expect welfare for the financial sectors and bankruptcy for Main Streeet. Market upturn is entirely artificial underpinned by massive floats fromT2 and your future tax revenues. Expect Canada to go on war footing with tax rates far exceeding current levels with semi permanent rationing of basic staples for the next few years. Expect a VAT tax at 25 per cent as in Euro Zone here soon.
It is hard not to come to awareness that Great Depression 2.0
here with 25 per cent of mortgage holders planning to send jingle mail by August to Banks and a million declaring personal bankruptcy by May 1 thr annual anniversary of communism.”
Corona virus is an RNA virus, and it’s normal to see mutations and variants arise in different people during the pandemic. There are minor genetic changes occurring in the virus, this allows us to precisely track the disease, but this is not enough to call it a new or different ‘strain’. It’s giving a cutting-edge, refined view of how the diseases spreads. However, people love the idea that the virus is mutating to become more or less virulent in humans. We don’t know this is true. It’s tempting but purely speculative. Many previous ideas have been discounted. Here’s a nice commentary on that subject. – Shawn L
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0690-4
Bytor the Snow Dog ” Softball questions. Softball answers.
And dear Dr. Shawn, there’s no evidence that the lockdowns are either working or not working. None. And there never will be, despite the fearmongers stating it is working/did work.
Let’s isolate the vulnerable, stop delaying the development of herd immunity and get back to work.
The cure is worse than the disease.”
The burden of proof is on you to say that social distancing and self-isolation is not working. The virus has spread over the entire world in a few months! It’s killing many people, over 100,000 (an underestimate for sure). If we didn’t take any measures to limit spread, it would be much worse. I fail to see any logic to your statement. Isolating the vulnerable is a good idea. Letting the virus run wild is not sustainable, too many casualties in those infected, the health care system and its workers. I too find it hard to accept that this is the best path because there is so much collateral damage to the economy, and so much unknown about what the future will look like. – Shawn L
I survived the toilet paper apocalypse because I am a Costco shopper so I had 48 rolls in stock when the panic started, and now it is still hard to find but you can get it. I bought an extra pack of 36 rolls once it was back in stock even though I still have most of my original 48 rolls, but I think that should suffice. It looks weird to have damn near 70 rolls of toilet paper in the house. But these are weird times.
I’ll tell you one thing I didn’t and still don’t have any of: N95 masks. I am not attempting to secure any either because it turns out the hospitals were under-stocked as well and I’ll let them get them first (or I will be forced to for now I suppose). But once this blows over, assuming I am still alive, I’ll be buying some. They don’t go bad.
The house we live in was built at a time when large pantries and cold rooms were a thing. And because I tend to fill up my cart when I go shopping, it is fairly well stalked. I imagine this will be a new trend going forward even for condos. Empty fridges and cupboards and a small trip to get what groceries you are going to eat today are probably a thing of the past. We are all preppers now. Just don’t go crazy all at once, because that is what drives shortages.
the Jaguar “Ryan, can you ask your ‘bro’ to develop his last statement “I think this outbreak will lead to many policy changes that will reduce the risk of future outbreaks.” To what policy changes does he refer? Curious as the reference is to ‘future outbreaks’, not our prepardness to handle them.
Also, since he is resident in Calgary can he give us his take on why the number of cases is so significantly higher in Calgary versus Edmonton though the population numbers are very similar? (917 calgary versus 386 Edmonton)? We appear to have more of “something” in Calgary. What or who is it? While our ‘airport’ is still open, it doesn’t add up that Calgarians would travel more internationally to a level that would support the huge gap in numbers, though it is generally acknowledged that its citizens are more sophisticated and intelligent than their northern counterparts. Those from Edmonton coming home on an international flight arriving in Edmonton would still be counted in their home city, correct?”
Almost all outbreaks of influenza or corona viruses including SARS, MERS and COVID-19, are caused by viruses that emerged from animals raised for food. Due to the factory farming methods, each animal is easily susceptible if an infection of bird flu occurs, and each animal is an incubator for the virus. For the flu, virus strains from human and animal (pig or bird) infect a common source, and eventually share genetic information, leading to new, hybrid strains. These new strains may be highly virulent and transmissible to humans. For the coronaviruse outbreaks, there are natural variants that allow the virus to hop from a bat, to another animal, eventually to humans. These are standard evolutionary processes and will ensure that future outbreaks are inevitable.
For future policy, we need to consider the way we raise animals. China should crack down on the ‘wet markets’, and ban them. For years, the government supported wet markets because it employed so many people. Other policies are to keep consistent funding to virology, vaccinology and pandemic preparedness. The Trump government disbanded the pandemic response unit (Global Health Security and Biodefense) that Obama developed. – Shawn L
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#99 Penny Henny on 04.11.20 at 5:48 pm sez:
“Please don’t engage Sail Away in any conversation.
He’ll just end up telling us how he’s made a gazillion dollars this year (in a down market at that), used the virus to cheat his employees out of proper severance, went boating with the dogs and then climbed brokeback mountain and then to end the day he tipped a peasant $300 to tie his shoe for him (actually velcro).”
———————————————————
Don’t forget that he stole your wife, kicked your puppy, and that one time at band camp….well, that’s best left unspoken.
mark “I was hoping for more from this article, specifically some info to calm a lot of peoples nerves, maybe kill rate for HEALTHY humans in 30-60 age group. You here so much garbage, and the younger people dying you never know how “healthy” they actually are.
Thanks for the post.
Gets a “D” fail for me.
Thanks for effort though.”
There is a wide age distribution of those infected in Canada. – Shawn L
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107149/covid19-cases-age-distribution-canada/
#56 Brian Ripley on 04.11.20 at 3:27 pm
Stay home and please spare us your communist Chinese talking points.
At least we know who the black sheep of the family is now!
#115 Ustabe
There is a growing resistance about Bill Gate’s activities in the field of medicine.
#106 oh bouy on 04.11.20 at 6:00 pm
meh, you come off just as dumb and preachy as the conspiracy theorists on here
————————
So sad for you I guess. PS most of the 15 year olds are hanging around on Reddit not here.
#85 Stupid-19…” But those models were based on a “do nothing” scenario.”
Nope they weren’t. The US models always assumed social distancing was in place. They got revised down from 2 million deaths to less than 6000.
I do a lot of reading and have been intrigued by a number of articles questioning the timing/identification of the virus. It appears the arrival of the virus may have been earlier and masked by flu season. If this is the case, many people could have had the virus well before alarms went off about it. Is this something researchers are looking at? I understand there are tests available to see if has been present but this type of testing has not been widespread. I believe a study done in Chicago has suggested that the virus has been around awhile. Interesting reading anyways.
DELETED
I would argue the opposite. The burden of proof is on you who claims it works since the cost if so high. There are many experts who disagree.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg&t=19s
By the way…if you go to the T2 Bux ($2000) site and open up an application it tells you:
“Note: if you are subsequently determined to be ineligible, you must repay the benefit.”
How nice. It is NOT saying: if a fraudulent application is made you could be fined up to $X, face repayment and interest penalties, and/or face X months in prison.
Nope. It says simply:
“Note: if you are subsequently determined to be ineligible, you must repay the benefit.”
I can only imagine what’s taking place now.
If they keep pushing this financial leaver…then BK ensues and under emergency edict we get into a situation where private ownership of property/assets is no longer allowed. ; the State runs and takes care of all. That has never happened in history has it?!
You have no suggestions for Canada? We have no control over how China raises, sells and eats animals. It is my understanding there are still wet markets today. This has been in their culture for centuries. Not something even the government there can change easily (if they wanted to). The pandemic response unit was not disbanded in the US. That was fake news. I hope other experts in Canada have better answers.
They are doing blood transfusions from people who have been infected, recovered and developed antibodies to covid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47IOaG2oUQQ
I’m not expert, but wouldn’t that be faster than making a whole new vaccine?
Thank you Ryan and Dr. Shawn Lewanza; much appreciated for this post! I have forwarded this to many of my associates!
Lewanza: “even if this were true shouldn’t we do everything we can to save these people.”
—————————————
First, Excellent post! Good explanation of the current state of affairs.
Second, I disagree with your statement above. We are talking of people who have reached the end of their natural lifespan. Pneumonia moves regularly through nursing homes and causes the death of many – and it’s often a blessing. No news here.
Are people so fearful of death that they want a ventilator shoved down their throat in their dying hours? I’ll pass.
Meanwhile, I’m alive, and I want to go fishing and camping in my remaining good years. Come the May long weekend I’m outa here – no matter what Kenney or Trudeau tell me!
Sorry, misspelled your names; thank you Lewenza’s.
Speaking with such certainty about immunity is a bit early.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
this is all, apparently, because the health care systems couldn’t handle an outbreak. Which means no gov’t was prepared and, as a result, we pay the price.
It needs to run its course. Disease has been part of life from the beginnings of mankind. It happens, people die, people survive, and the world goes on and population still grows and human society still advances.
It will this time too if these geniuses don’t kill us all first from economic devastation first.
#118 Shawn Lewenza on 04.11.20 at 6:43 pm sez:
“Bytor the Snow Dog ” Softball questions. Softball answers.
And dear Dr. Shawn, there’s no evidence that the lockdowns are either working or not working. None. And there never will be, despite the fearmongers stating it is working/did work.
Let’s isolate the vulnerable, stop delaying the development of herd immunity and get back to work.
The cure is worse than the disease.”
The burden of proof is on you to say that social distancing and self-isolation is not working. The virus has spread over the entire world in a few months! It’s killing many people, over 100,000 (an underestimate for sure). If we didn’t take any measures to limit spread, it would be much worse. I fail to see any logic to your statement. Isolating the vulnerable is a good idea. Letting the virus run wild is not sustainable, too many casualties in those infected, the health care system and its workers. I too find it hard to accept that this is the best path because there is so much collateral damage to the economy, and so much unknown about what the future will look like. – Shawn L”
————————————————
Let’s see…..
“If we didn’t take any measures to limit spread, it would be much worse.”
You assertion, you prove it. But you can’t. Why? There isn’t any proof, and there won’t be any. Because no one has a time machine. Italy, Sweden, USA etc. are all unique countries and have different populations with different health parameters and therefore comparisons aren’t really viable.
“Isolating the vulnerable is a good idea. Letting the virus run wild is not sustainable, too many casualties in those infected, the health care system and its workers.”
What is the fatality rate in Canada (as flawed as that stat is, given that it only counts positive tested cases as infected) of those under 40 ? Under 50? Under 60?
Hint: It’s 0% to 2%. Depending on co-morbidities. And deaths are overestimated, not underestimated. There are many sources for this. Reporting standards in regards to vital stats have been adjusted and essentially if you were tested positive for the virus it is being listed as a cause of death.
Health care workers should take responsibility for themselves and make sure they have the proper PPE or they should refuse to work.
Let’s see what the overall fatality rate per country data says when it comes out. I suspect that the fatality rates for medical causes other than Covid will drop dramatically. Except for suicides from despair, bankruptcies, and divorces of course.
I appreciate your contributions here but what the world really needs at this time is for more doctors and professionals to get out of their cognitive myopic medical bubbles and start to think a little more broadly like Dr. Knut Wittkowski and others have done.
Health care workers should take responsibility for themselves and make sure they have the proper PPE or they should refuse to work.
#122 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.11.20 at 6:55 pm
#99 Penny Henny on 04.11.20 at 5:48 pm sez:
“Please don’t engage Sail Away in any conversation.
He’ll just end up telling us how he’s made a gazillion dollars this year (in a down market at that), used the virus to cheat his employees out of proper severance, went boating with the dogs and then climbed brokeback mountain and then to end the day he tipped a peasant $300 to tie his shoe for him (actually velcro).”
———————
Don’t forget that he stole your wife, kicked your puppy, and that one time at band camp….well, that’s best left unspoken.
———————
Haha. That was Penny? Let’s just say he’s… enthusiastic.
#109 Zed on 04.11.20 at 6:09 pm
Re-I can’t believe that some idiots thought that by deferring their mortgage payments was like free money. And those same idiots blame the banks for taking advantage of them by asking the money to be paid back. Unbelievable!
It’s believable.
They live among us and breed…. that’s what’s scary!
@123 Ryan L.
Junk stats. This is the distribution of cases where a ”
….Figures include cases for which a detailed case report form has been received by the Public Health Agency of Canada from provincial partners.” In other words tested positive cases. What a hoot.
Show me the hospitalization rate per age group.
Show me the fatality rate per age group.
Then divide all of those by at least a factor of ten, then divide that by the actually population of Canada.
@#120 Shawn Lewenza on 04.11.20 at 6:49 pm
Thank you for your response re the ‘policy changes’ that will reduce risk of future outbreaks. I only wish those policy changes were ones that could be controlled within our own country and not dependent on countries where cultural norms have found ‘wet markets’ to be acceptable. Doesn’t appear those practices were curtailed after the Sars outbreak in 2002, eighteen years ago. Just sayin’.
You didn’t respond to the second part of my question regarding the Calgary/Edmonton numbers and I recognize it may be impolitic for your to do so. I have my own theory on this issue. Thank you for sharing information and for your service to Calgarians and the greater community.
.
109 Zed – full disclosure. I paid off my mortgage over
10 years ago. I own shares of that bank. And my income has been cut in half. May improve when the dust settles. Or not, in which case I just go home.
I’m not sure how to be both generous to people owing money, and fair to people like myself. Perhaps treating the balance like an LOC and only requiring interest
payments for X months, and automatically extending
the current terms by that same timeframe.
I would also like to see the government introduce benefits that cover other parts of the population. How about a one time $10k RRSP withdrawal with no tax
and no requirement to repay? Or a higher personal
exemption for 2020?
#123 Ryan Lewenza on 04.11.20 at 6:55 pm
mark “I was hoping for more from this article, specifically some info to calm a lot of peoples nerves, maybe kill rate for HEALTHY humans in 30-60 age group. You here so much garbage, and the younger people dying you never know how “healthy” they actually are.
Thanks for the post.
Gets a “D” fail for me.
Thanks for effort though.”
There is a wide age distribution of those infected in Canada. – Shawn L
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107149/covid19-cases-age-distribution-canada/
********************************************
Thank You Ryan for response.
So i checked the numbers in canada, small sample about 20% have gotten corona for 45-64 age group.
I checked the state of new york city for a bigger sample size, i am sure someone will check my math and point out if i am wrong?
But for anyone that wonders the death rate for NYC in this age group is about 50 per 100000 people.
0.0005% (5 to the -4 power?)
Never said i was good at math.
If i am right let that sink in…………………its a very small number….
Thanks Ryan.
Mark. I feel better, yes i am laid off, time to go back to work?
Besides cutting my hair a few weeks back, which was hilarious; today I baked my first ever apple pie; need to look at the bright side once in awhile! Ok, enough of that, going back to drinking and whining like some mils! I have never seen so many bikini pics in my life on the Daily Mail; lol!
#4 Wrk.dover on 04.11.20 at 12:40 pm
totally with you on that one
I cannot get through a full sentence of JT
And thank you Shawn, also for the response and link.
Mark.
#108 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.11.20 at 6:05 pm
65 Sail Away on 04.11.20 at 3:53 pm sez:
“#56 Brian Ripley on 04.11.20 at 3:27 pm
This blog… is a good example of how “believers” will believe anything that suits their own bias…
….despite the fact that Trump is a pathological liar…
[rant, rant, rant.. Trump, Trump, devil.. ad nauseam]
————–
Good work, BR. Rarely have we seen irrational bias so clearly demonstrated, haha.”
———————————————————
Were you around when Ripley suggested that Mommies get “proxy votes” for each child during elections?
Oh yeah, super genius this guy be.
— –
I remember that one. Let Mom cast an extra vote on behalf of each child who is not old enough to vote.
No mention of single Dads also getting to vote on behalf of their kids though, so I guess the Men only get to vote once.
Yeah, no one could ever guess where Ripley is trying to go with that idea lol!
#88 BS on 04.11.20 at 5:22 pm
We should elect leaders for more than a famous last name and nice hair. This poor decision by a minority of naive Canadian voters has cost us all dearly.
——————————————–
Shoulda woulda coulda elected the guy that had a two paragraph bio on wiki only a month before the election, just because of his cute dimples and Jonah Hill familiarity looks.
All parties are guilty of ignorant leadership nomination.
I would love to ask any random scientist why is the solution to every problem is economic collapse? Virus, shut down economy. Climate change, shut down economy.
And his science is already out dated on HCQ. A 1000 person study was released yesterday. 91% recovery rate. But the MSM wont publish that, instead we have a moisty speech from Trudeau to occupy our quarantine purgatory.
And I am not taking any vaccine or tracking scheme from Bill Gates. If the SARs model is a guide then all of these seasonal flu strains we are vaccinating for have burned themselves out 18 months before we are vaccinated. Shooting ourselves up for something that doesn’t even exist in the population anymore.
A universal antiviral is what I will wait for.
#97 Sold Out on 04.11.20 at 5:43 pm
#60 Sail Away on 04.11.20 at 3:38 pm
#53 Sold Out on 04.11.20 at 3:22 pm
Valiant effort to impart factual information to those who’ve immunised themselves against any intrusion by reality.
—————–
Be sure to let the doctor know that hydroxychloroquine is a bunch of hokum, SO.
Haven’t you been quite vociferous (well, wordy) about that?
—————–
I will confidently reiterate my position, which is that there is no evidence of efficacy from any study that meets the “randomized, double-blind” gold standard that any drug is held to. If there was, we’d be reading about it now, wouldn’t we?
——————
It’s disingenuous to trumpet an expert’s words for the purpose of shaming those of another opinion, when you very clearly disagree with one of that expert’s statements yourself.
#18 neo on 04.11.20 at 1:21 pm
&
#51 Shawn Lewenza on 04.11.20 at 3:17 pm
_______________________________________
In my view, the balance is a functioning health care system.
Only as we build up treatment capacity to exceed treatment demand, will we see a loosening of isolation restrictions. If the numbers threaten to overwhelm the system, restrictions will be reinstated.
As we continue to build healthcare capacity we can expect restriction to ease, slightly and gradually. But they will likely remain in some way until a vaccine is produced.
This is the only justification I can see the gov’t using for reducing restrictions other than open revolt, which may also occur.
A functioning health care system is not just for COVID patients, you know. Every car accident, every cancer treatment, every broken arm, workplace accident, heart attack, dialysis, et.al. that needs treatment of any sort was & is at risk if COVID numbers get out of hand. It really is for everyone.
So the jist of this story remains that a respiratory influenza type virus has to “run through” our population anyway, because as long as there is a deep “reservoir” of non-immune individuals, the population will remain liable to re-infection blooms.
The governments were afraid of an infection rate so high as to overwhelm ICU capacity. Now that this concern has been alleviated, time to open the schools and businesses and let the complex biological warfare machinery of our own bodies to develop their own protein weapons.
Vulnerable people should remain isolated, but it’s time to lift the closures and forced quarantines.
#91 TurnerNation on 12.17.19 at 8:06 am
For years now I’ve stated a time will come whereby armed government men destroy perfectly good food stuffs while desperately hungry people look on. Maybe the WHO says there is a virus, or maybe the correct ‘carbon permit’ was not obtained beforehand
—————————————————————
Well the didn’t need armed government men to do this:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/farmers-deal-with-glut-of-food-as-coronavirus-closes-restaurants-11586439722
#88 BS on 04.11.20 at 5:22 pm
This pandemic is a wakeup call to governments about the need to invest more in preparedness, and in research towards testing and vaccines.
More like it should be a wake up call to voters to elect competent government leaders. Ones who don’t react to a pandemic by using identity politics as the basis for decisions like not implementing travel bans because they are racist. Or electing leaders who’s favorite country is a communist dictatorship (China) and second favorite country is also a communist dictatorship (Cuba). We should also elect leaders who put Canada first and do not send all out personal protective equipment to China after we already know there is a significant threat here and we are low on these same supplies for our own front line medial workers. We should not elected leaders who hide in their basements for the first 30 days of the biggest crisis to hit our country in a century. We should elect leaders for more than a famous last name and nice hair. This poor decision by a minority of naive Canadian voters has cost us all dearly.
…….
So, I assume you would be happy if a “minority of naive Canadian voters’ elected a “Conservative” government…even though they would have likely made very similar decisions? You need to get over your disdain for the leader and focus more on what is occurring and how we are handling it. Overall, our results seem encouraging though there are and will be, decisions that were and are not perfect.
Wet markets are 140billion renmeembees (20billon USD) “industry” I don’t see them winding down or transitioning in “farmers market” any time soon. There is interesting video about markets made by vox on utube, thet is where I got a number…
Well I guess my question will be ignored. Would love to hear why Deaths of Despair from someone young and able are somehow less tragic than deaths from Covid-19 for the 75+ crowd in a nursing home. Yes I know Covid-19 does very rarely kill people who are young and healthy, but the stats are overwhelmingly that it kills people who were very sick before they got it and very old.
Deaths of despair don’t target people who have lived a full, long life; they target people who have given up hope of having a life ever.
1% unemployment rate increase = 40,000 deaths in America (and the studies say it has a similar per capita impact in other countries). Destroying the economy jumps the unemployment rate temporarily to 20+% or higher, and probably some permanent structural damage to get us to what? 10%?
End the lockdowns in May with social distancing and by age group. Keep the vulnerable in self isolation until a vaccine or herd immunity is formed. This “let’s keep the economy shut indefinitely” is HORRIBLE for young people and will result in more deaths along with the awful impact to civil liberties and futures of hundreds of millions/billions of young people globally.
Sweden has it right, I’m afraid. Yes they’ll have more deaths than Denmark per capita, but they’ll probably end up with less deaths per capita than UK, France, Italy, etc. and without the crippling debts, layoffs, and abuse of power from police to keep people from going out of their houses.
#118 Shawn Lewenza on 04.11.20 at 6:43 pm
“The burden of proof is on you to say that social distancing and self-isolation is not working. ”
Strictly speaking, the burden lies on those who proposed it as a public policy, not those who object to it. Otherwise, we must submit to any arbitrary measures. As an academic, you know that.
What is meant by “working” in the absence of any defined objective or exit strategy?
I think nobody can deny that social distancing will reduce the rate of infections. In BC, the COVID-19 deaths in the last month amount to 20% of the normal respiratory deaths.
But so what? We have less than 200 people in hospital, but 4000 empty beds awaiting customers (and 4000 people whose surgery has been postponed indefinitely). My family doctor is pleading with his patients to visit his clinic since he has no work nor income now.
I fear the battle against this virus will lead to a Pyrrhic victory unless the strategy changes.
#123 Ryan Lewenza on 04.11.20 at 6:55 pm
There is a wide age distribution of those infected in Canada. – Shawn L
——————————————————-
The link you provided is the infection rate per age group and not the mortality rate. The link below provides the age relationship.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
#141 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.11.20 at 7:57 pm
“…to get out of their cognitive myopic medical bubbles and start to think a little more broadly like Dr. Knut Wittkowski and others have done.”
He is one voice, one idea, one professional opinion among many many other ones.
You, Sir, sound like a disciple of whoever appears to agree with your way of looking at things; in other words “confirmation bias”.
Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that’s higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.
The new figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other groups were published Dec. 13 in The Lancet medical journal.
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914
Coronavirus death toll so far worldwide after 5 months of epidemic/pandemic…
We have to add China to the official numbers, 3,000 x 20 = 60,000 dead likely.
Notice I have a correction factor of 20 as we deal with Commies and Party lies…
Coronavirus Cases: 1,779,099
Deaths: 108,770 + China 60,000 ~ 190,000 dead.
So regular flu season likely kills 646,000 people in a full calendar year (which is more like 6-7 months of cold season) and Covid19 killed 190,000 in 6 months, with my added China correction factor.
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci said Sunday that it is likely the coronavirus will become a seasonal occurrence.
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/491239-fauci-says-its-likely-coronavirus-will-be-seasonal
Let’s see what will it be
1.) Covid19 + very low flu deaths -> Covid19 basically replaced the flu
2.) Covid19 + regular number of flu deaths
3.) Covid19 + high number of flu deaths
The key here is if the two numbers combined are significantly higher than 646,000 flu deaths annually.
For everyone with half a brain, need I say more..
I am waiting for the 2019-2020 flu seasonal numbers with baited breath…lol
Just another heads up as to how Albertan’s are helping out once again; I am sure that we will get numerous posts (not here) but on other news sites on how bad we are; anyways, here it is: https://globalnews.ca/news/6807827/alberta-support-covid-19-provincial/
#159 NoName on 04.11.20 at 8:56 pm
…Wet markets are 140billion renmeembees (20billon USD) “industry” I don’t see them winding down or transitioning in “farmers market” any time soon.
Then, the only protection would be to ban all travelers from China (and other such places that have these wet markets) until we have the proper tools to protect ourselves from another incident like this one.
Oh, how I wonder what the voters will do come next election. I wonder even more about when will Canada find a bold, intelligent and balanced leader; and as a bonus, one that doesn’t pander to lobbyists.
I doublt M Tru-Doh! would have the testicular fortitude to do this.
Mr. And Mrs. Lewenza,
You make great babies!!
You can see what Trudeau did and what the Conservative opposition was calling for. Big difference.
The road to Canada’s COVID-19 outbreak, Pt. 2: timeline of federal government failure at border to slow the virus
Feb. 3: Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux in the House of Commons:“Other countries are taking proactive measures by declaring a public health emergency. Other countries are cancelling all flights into and out of China. The United States said it is implementing these measures to increase its ability to detect and contain the coronavirus. Why has Canada not done the same?”
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/the-road-to-canadas-covid-19-outbreak-pt-2-timeline-of-federal-government-failure-at-border-to-slow-the-virus-2/
#56 Brian Ripley on 04.11.20 at 3:27 pm
— —
Man, I’ve read a few conspiracy theories in my time, but this one takes the cake lol!
The coronavirus pandemic is a media creation, fake news, the biggest psychological warfare stunt in history.
Nothing can justify the economic devastation caused by the media generated coronavirus panic. The real agenda is make everyone dependent on the government by throwing millions out of work and destroying small business. Then, force everyone to accept vaccines and a digital tattoo as the price of employment and free movement and assembly. Marginalize independent thinkers. Of course, this is all done to “protect your health.”
FYI:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/3SGegBmtZ1He/
I have seen alot of PMs come-and-go, but I must say that Canada has never had a leader as ineffectual as Justin Trudeau. You can just tell by listening to the man speak that he has not got a clue and is in miles over his head. Just so clueless and uninspiring it is not even real. Canada has sunk to depths I could never have imagined. Shame :(
For future policy, we need to consider the way we rais #120
China should crack down on the ‘wet markets’, and ban them. For years, the government supported wet markets because it employed so many people. Other policies are to keep consistent funding to virology, vaccinology and pandemic preparedness.
——
This is what I was saying weeks ago. However, I am more pessimistic about China’s long-term willingness and ability to curtail a cultural practice with the wet markets that has been ongoing for at least a few centuries. Although there are certainly similar wet markets in other parts of Asia, there hundreds of flights a day between say Vietnam and the west. If it originated in Vietnam, the west could much more readily cut the flights and travel between them and us.
China seemed to learn nothing from the SARS episode; Initially they were stricter with the wet markets for a few years after SARS, but then they relaxed controls. How exactly is the rest of the world going to be able to monitor and verify that the wet markets are closed going forward past COVID19? Highly problematic, and I would not trust much proclamation that comes from the Chinese Gov’t. We certainly can’t have that every five years the world economy gets shut down when they have something emerging from these markets. In my view they have already had a few clear opportunities to take a different path. We need some type of social distancing from China going forward, producing more of vital supplies locally, and finding other countries to replace some of what China produces. I forsee that Mexico could be a more major trading partner.
#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.11.20 at 3:27 pm
@#31 Figure it out
“Standard medical device makers aren’t visionary enough to add a fart mode. ”
+++
I’m just happy to know I cant be replaced by a robot quite yet….
—
You would be surprised how fast you could… As a kid sad sb3000 silent but deadly.
https://youtu.be/aA-TVmMWNxo
#154 Sail Away on 04.11.20 at 8:41 pm
It’s disingenuous to trumpet an expert’s words for the purpose of shaming those of another opinion, when you very clearly disagree with one of that expert’s statements yourself.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Is this the statement that you accuse me of disagreeing with?
“The anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine was found to be effective in a small, clinical study that some have criticized.”
Well, Dr. Lewenza is a big boy, and didn’t put me in my place, so what’s your beef? I’m pretty sure he doesn’t need you to fight his battles for him.
Here’s the sum total of what is known wrt the use of HCQ in treating Covid 19:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944120303907
The most promising statement I can find in it is:
“Chloroquine seems to be effective in limiting the replication of SARS-CoV-2 (virus causing COVID-19) in vitro.”
So, it seems to limit viral replication in a test tube. Still far short of the afore-mentioned gold standard, but worth investigating.
The study Dr. Lewenza cited has been criticized because it also falls short of the gold standard. It was drawn from from a small patient group that was not randomly selected, and patients that suffered adverse events were eliminated from the data.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/journal-publisher-concerned-over-hydroxychloroquine-study-67405
Just because high-school students build surprisingly sturdy bridges from spaghetti, it doesn’t mean you can build a 3rd North Shore crossing on that design.
You seem to have a long list of rules you apply to all posters you disagree with, but are the first to complain when someone tries to censor you.
“Poor form, bro. Using a financial disaster to try to prove your point. Unfair.”
Maybe let other grown-ups fight their own battles, instead of pretending you’re the comment police.
I have been looking at the data to date. Using the federal model presented a couple of days ago, here is my analysis. The deaths by infection rate were presented as follows: 2.5% and 5% infection rate will result in 11,000 and 22,000 deaths respectively; apparently a linear relationship from the origin to 5%. Applying a normal distribution (bell curve) to daily deaths data to date, with an assumption that the peak will be reached in the next week, the infection rate will range 0.5% – 0.75%, and the total number of deaths will range 2,200 to 3,300.
I will update this as new data comes in because I don’t see it being provided by the Chief Medical Officer and politicians.
I can’t agree more with Garth’s call for a plan, as I pointed out in a comment more than a week ago.
@#127 Stupid-19 on 04.11.20 at 7:10 pm
#106 oh bouy on 04.11.20 at 6:00 pm
meh, you come off just as dumb and preachy as the conspiracy theorists on here
————————
So sad for you I guess. PS most of the 15 year olds are hanging around on Reddit not here.
____________________________________
lol, I hope 15 year olds aren’t on here listening to old buggers gripe all day. that would be sad.
#161 Sydneysider on 04.11.20 at 9:02 pm
I fear the battle against this virus will lead to a Pyrrhic victory unless the strategy changes.
—- –
You can stop worrying, the damage is already baked into the pie. It’ll be a few years before the fallout comes to bear, but we are in big trouble.
19 million workers (public ones included), 40% of them don’t pay income taxes, handouts everywhere (ask me for details), oil is toast, mining been dead for years, everyone’s broke, tax freedom day mid June.
Not to mention this government has spent most of its time chasing big business out of the country and took a good swipe at killing off small ones too. It’s like someone is paying these Libs to bankrupt us.
I figure 225 billion in new debt just this year. Trudeau blew 120 billion in his first term (the budget did not balance itself). 3 more years of these Looney Libs will likely see another 90-100 billion or so stacked on top. So Trudeau’s total damage will be not far off a half TRILLION dollars.
That’s 60+% of the entire combined federal debt outstanding at the time Trudeau took office.
There’s just no way to get revenues up enough to cover this unless they can sell bonds for 1/2% and pay interest only till the end of time. If the global economy ever gets going again for long enough to cause rates to rise, we’re basically ******.
Thanks for a great and insightful column. Always appreciate the wonderful information provided by this blog. Stay well, and happy Easter.
Well here is an unexpected result, Quebec starting to fan the separation flames due to the pandemic.
https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2020/04/11/de-la-pandemie-a-la-souverainete
This one is for you, Sail Away:
———————————–
Russian President Vladimir Putin has imposed a national lockdown across Russia until the end of the month to try and fight the coronavirus, after Russia’s bold attempt to block transmission including border closures and severe travel restrictions that were at the time some of the most aggressive in the world, it seems the country’s effort either fell apart, or the virus managed to sneak inside anyway.
—-
It’s OK. I know you are smarter than Vlad. Please reach out to him and tell him that COVID is no big deal…
Japanese are smart; let us hope “especially Canada” takes suit! https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211367/Japanese-manufacturers-offered-1billion-China.html
REALITY CHECK.
Let’s say China develops this rushed vaccine.
Who’s putting their hand up to get injected?
>>>
“If you think about the way the Communist Party thinks about legitimacy, successfully developing a vaccine independently would be a huge boost for China’s prestige, which matters to them a great deal. I can definitely see that being a top priority.”
Safety should also be a concern because vaccines are supposed to be given to a large number of healthy people.
“Vaccines are given to healthy individuals while small molecules [medicines] are given to someone who is already sick, so the risk calculus is different,” Adalja said.
Cheng noted that vaccination had a long-term impact on the human body.
“Vaccines work by ‘training’ the immune system with a part of, or weakened form of, the virus. In general the vaccine itself doesn’t persist in the body, but the immune cells do and provide protection against later infection,” Cheng said.
Chinese officials said they were trying to balance safety with the urgency of the situation.
“We have high quality R&D teams and we have vaccine manufacturers,” said Zhang, from the biotechnology development centre.
“But we must be aware that vaccines are a special product given to healthy people and safety must come first … Vaccine development must follow scientific procedures and strict management and we have to give scientific researchers time to come up with a safe and effective vaccine.”
Yan Jinghua, a vaccine expert with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, agreed.
“There is no approved vaccine for this coronavirus anywhere in the world yet, and that means there is a lack of experience and there is no risk assessment for the vaccine yet,” said Yan, speaking at the same press briefing as Zhang.
“It is a challenge for vaccine researchers. We have to have sufficient proof of the risks and benefits … safety is the number one concern – we want to have a licensed vaccine as soon as possible … but we have to make sure it is safe.”
“Iceland has tested one-tenth of its population for coronavirus at random and found that half of people have the disease without realising.
They also discovered that 1,600 people have been infected with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak. Of these cases, there were only seven deaths, indicating a fatality rate of just 0.004 per cent…”
“The testing process has given the Nordic island a unique insight into the behaviour of the virus and is allowing them to resist a large-scale lockdown like those seen across the continent. ”
“By taking this route, Reykjavik has become the country with the highest proportion of coronavirus cases in the world simply due to their extensive screenings.”
“Scientists in Iceland have been leading the research against the coronavirus, and claimed at the end of last month that they had found 40 mutations of the respiratory illness. ”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8210401/Iceland-finds-half-population-asymptomatic-infected-Covid-19.html
***************
So, highest case numbers PER CAPITA in the world in Reykjavik and an extremely low fatality rate. Orders of magnitude lower than the average flu.
And over 40 mutations found thus far. But we’re going to get a vaccine? Sure we are. This must be the New Science. Joining the team with the New Math.
And last time I checked, Reykjavik was a capital city, not a country. Although it wouldn’t surprise if this is now the case since we’ve been catapulted into the twilight zone. But I suspect sloppy journalism as per usual. The New Journalism.
#63 Mark
Have a listen to this fella.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YitWZj9QhdQ&feature=youtu.be
For once, half decent article by the Mail…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8211397/The-fantasy-new-liberal-world-order-crumbling-says-JOHN-GRAY.html
Hashtag #MeToo tarred many innocent victims without any due process of crimes never reported and never proved and showed how easy it is to tar a whole gender with only a whisper of a lie. How can we forgive strangers for destroying your job; your life; your future and your economy?
“Tens of millions of Americans will lose their jobs over the coronavirus crackdown.”
“And all because the so-called “experts” and their liberal media cohorts created a panic and were off by MILLIONS in their careless predictions!”
“It is important to note that the IHME models predicting hundreds of thousands of dead Americans had social distancing and total lockdowns baked into the projections”
“So far — 21,500 Californians have tested positive for the virus and 596 have died.”
*******************
Again a lower fatality rate than for regular influenzas.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/unacceptable-called-experts-off-25-million-california-golden-state-reaches-peak-covid-19-deaths-596-21500-infected/
#128 Deplorable Dude on 04.11.20 at 7:12 pm
#85 Stupid-19…” But those models were based on a “do nothing” scenario.”
Nope they weren’t. The US models always assumed social distancing was in place. They got revised down from 2 million deaths to less than 6000.
——————
Huh? The actual deaths are already over 20,000 so the new model must be wrong too. And there may be models that now include social distancing but that wasn’t even a thing a few months ago. The original models were based on the Wuhan data. This stuff is very easy to google.
Thanks Inf… Lewenza
how dumb r Canadians? a recent poll thinks the govt has done a great job
‘great job’ = no pandemic plan, severe shortage of PPE, no oversight as, well, who was watching italy, s korea, taiwan, china?, having to shut the economy down
say it out loud– Canadians r a dumb bunch. Reap what you sow
Government could have said public sector gonna sit this one out.
Fine, sit on your ass, just set up online programs so I can go about my business.
Private sector, you’re on your own, do as you please at a distance.
We haven’t been shut down yet, but rumours are swirling that they are thinking about it.
Blue collar bums don’t just get to go back to work and push paper around, we have real deadlines and consequences.
If you are unable to service clients, they go elsewhere and you die on the vine.
I will spend some of my life savings before I suck on Trudeau’s teat.
That money’s got blood on it.
Welfare used to be for the needy, now it’s reserved for the greedy.
Blue collar life takes a pound of flesh a day, still got my pride.
M45BC
#19 Sail away on 04.11.20 at 1:23 pm
In good news: Tesla’s China factory built over 10,000 Model 3s in March.
————
The bad news: No one is gonna buy them.
Chinese factories are closing down again, cause there’s no market.
Unemployed people don’t by stuff.
I thought you know that.
For future policy, we need to consider the way we raise animals. China should crack down on the ‘wet markets’, and ban them. For years, the government supported wet markets because it employed so many people.
——–
Shawn,
So you agree with Trump that this is a China Virus.
Any insight as to Fransis Boyle the author of the US Governments Bio Weapons Act stating that Covid 19 is Bio engineered?
Thank you both for this fact-based, evidence-supported and well articulated post. In these times of social media and 24 hour news cycles it is great to come to a balanced source of information. . . and one that still allows for comments to boot! I appreciate all that you are doing. And you too Garth! Your delete button must be getting worn out.
Death rate > infected
Millennials economy being destroyed to save Boomers
Because of the strict social distancing and self-isolation policies that we are successfully implementing in Canada,
Of course it seems just wishful thinking.
Toronto police roll out stricter COVID-19 enforcement after letter from mayor
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/tory-calls-stricter-covid-19-133008064.html
People walking in the parks and on the streets every day while relaxing, not working/’working from home’ and enjoying government handouts.
You wish . I’m watching CNA, my regional news channel for Asia. The Covid response in Singapore has been so much more professional and responsive. Singapore’s PM Lee is the kind of leader Canadians could only about during a crisis. He’s really leading the charge. He’s out front, surrounded by the best minds and most qualified people in the country. It’s calm and firm, things get done, without panic.
Of course, Singapore is a meritocracy, where only the best are elevated in leadership positions. Unlike Canada, where part time drama teachers and graphic artists make the Corona response a disastrous failure.
Singapore has fewer deaths in the entire than “Nursing Homes” in Quebec and North Vancouver. Singapore took charge right away, closing borders to sick people, temperature checks for all. It worked to quarantine arrivals, not like Trudeaus brochures.
Everyone wears a mask. Hand sanitizers for all, nobody calls you a racist for keeping your distance. The Health Authorities issue straight talk, not the ever changing head spin we get from politically correct agenda setters. You know your government is working in a serious coordinated way that cares about national public health not its commitment to foreign influence of radical donors.
The police aren’t arresting or fining mass numbers of people walking or shopping to show off their influence. Average citizens are not ratting our neighbors , it isn’t done here. You get a sense that people take their social responsibility more seriously here.
Singapore is functioning, unlike the panic that’s been pushed on Canadians. Attacking Corona instead of pushing a political agenda put Asian countries way ahead of the curve and its actually safer here than there. Maybe if the governing party had a leader like PM Lee lives could have been saved and the economy would still be functioning.
*sigh*
So let me get this straight. Guy comes onto a FREE blog at the behest of his brother. Generously donates his obvious years of education, experience, expertise to try and bring a bit of science to the emotional zoo animals.
And STILL has to endure the sniping, the insults, the low-IQ challenges.
Yeah, I know. Garth does it every day. But it’s his blog, you’d think people could be a little more civil to a guest.
At any rate, thank you, Brothers Lewenza.
“Professor Knut Wittkowski, for twenty years head of The Rockefeller University’s Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design”
It’s amazing how many crackpot experts have been discovered by the internet’s hordes of unlettered crackpots. At least now I’ve heard of Rockefeller University.
Here’s Knut’s publications:
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Knut_M_Wittkowski
This guy is not an expert in infectious disease or virology. Doesn’t mean he’s wrong, but he’s no expert. Still, crackpot research institute PhD beats crackpot backwoods Montana MD who hasn’t been reading the journals for 25 years…
#36 Bytor the Snow Dog “Softball questions. Softball answers.”
There’s a whole internet out there. If this is where you come for your COVID news, you’re doing it wrong.
This is where *I* come to check out the Canadian crackpot zeitgeist, as Garth has spent years lovingly cultivating several heirloom strains.
So Sweden and Mexico decided not to shut their countries down. Calamaty? Catastrophe? Sky falling? No. Sweden has 88 deaths per 1 million. Mexico has 2.
How about some context. The 2017-2018 flu season in the USA killed an estimated 61000 for a rate of 184 deaths per 1 million
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm.
The current USA death rate stands at 62. That’s with social distancing. But also with a healthy dose of fudging the numbers based on this previously linked document. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf
I’m a respiratory therapist in a acute care facility. We went through our flu season a few months back. 16 ventilated patients in a 22 bed ICU. We survived. Some old folks didnt. That’s life. Hopefully good ones. We’re setting up a lot of people for some shitty lives. For what?
#199 BillyBob on 04.12.20 at 5:46 am
I don’t see people being rude to the Brothers Lewenza, but I do see them calling out problematic language in their posts such as:
“..shouldn’t we do everything we can to save these people” – > which absolutely deserves to be questioned since we don’t do “everything” we can to save anyone, it’s a balance of individual choices/freedoms against risks to health and safety in life. We’ve struck a balance and that balance has been shifted away from individual liberty towards safety without any consultation or vote or debate very quickly. And without knowledge of how effective total lockdowns are versus social distancing/masks/etc
Here’s another problematic quote
“Fourth, if we don’t develop a vaccine then this virus can keep coming in waves (until we reach herd immunity), which will destroy our economy for years to come.”
There’s no vaccine for the common cold, because viruses like Covid-19 mutate quite quickly. The flu vaccine has to be updated every year and retaken because of this. So a magical bullet vaccine isn’t going to come save us. Herd immunity will save us. And herd immunity can be achieved by opening up the lockdowns and letting young healthy people catch the virus and let nature do it’s thing (immunize them through natural defenses!).
Also we’re destroying our economy ourselves, trading a known destruction for a possible future worst case scenario. I’d much rather the governments properly fund their respective health care systems than spend trillions giving everyone money to do nothing indefinitely. Deaths of despair are real.
Here’s another problematic quote:
“The burden of proof is on you to say that social distancing and self-isolation is not working.”
At the unprecedented cost to government balance sheets and individual liberties and job losses, I would say this statement is extremely troubling. You could make up any massively sweeping policy that protects lives at the expense of freedom and say it works if hold this test to it. Individuals suffering don’t have the resources or power to prove the government’s policies wrong. Ridiculous. Give your head a shake. That’s not how logic works.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/16-million-people-just-got-laid-off-but-us-stocks-had-their-best-week-in-45-years-2020-04-10?mod=bnbh_mwarticle
This isn’t math class but I see the daily grappling with numbers here now that we’re dealing with flu stats and zero decimal blah blah blah.
This blew me away :
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/math/decimal-to-percent-calculator.php
How is it even possible for 0.36 to equal 36% ? Yet this is the predominant method now found on the net for converting decimals to percentages and is all over the kid’s math sites. Are they teaching this to children in the schools? Back in the day when we had schools, of course.
Google pretty much buried this link: ( pertinent snippet below)
http://www.numbernut.com/fractions/decimal-intro.html
“The numbers on the right side of the point are the decimal values. Those numbers represent values called tenths, hundredths, thousandths, and so on… The decimal values are values that are less than one.”
So, numbers to the right of the decimal point are LESS than 1%. And they are teaching the kids it’s 36%. Yeah, it’s 36%… OF ONE PERCENT.
How many of you went through the school system having your brains scrambled with this nonsense? No wonder you’re scared to death of this coronavirus. You’ve been mathematically crippled. Victims.
How can we believe the numbers being fed to us by the media? Not only are they lying but now we have to interpret which math language they’re using. New Math could come in handy for you though, Garth. Think of the killing you’d make.
WARNING: All others using this method – Stay away from mixing the pool chemicals!
#174 Sold Out on 04.11.20 at 10:18 pm
You seem to have a long list of rules you apply to all posters you disagree with, but are the first to complain when someone tries to censor you.
——————–
First statement:
Nope. Rules can only apply when there is enforcement capacity. You’re talking about difference of opinions or viewpoint.
Second statement:
Yes, I will always strongly disagree with someone trying to enact censorship of a contrary opinion, mine or another’s. Are you a fan of censorship?
“Any insight as to Fransis Boyle the author of the US Governments Bio Weapons Act stating that Covid 19 is Bio engineered”
Guy’s a friggin’ tax lawyer. Was the virus caught trying to claim novel deductions?
#163 John in Mtl on 04.11.20 at 9:14 pm
#141 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.11.20 at 7:57 pm
“…to get out of their cognitive myopic medical bubbles and start to think a little more broadly like Dr. Knut Wittkowski and others have done.”
He is one voice, one idea, one professional opinion among many many other ones.
You, Sir, sound like a disciple of whoever appears to agree with your way of looking at things; in other words “confirmation bias”
—
Maybe, but among others, this professor of neurobiology at the University of Pittsburgh’s medical school also happens to agree with him. He actually calls Knut Wittkowski the foremost expert of the field
in the second link, where he talks about pseudo-experts occupying C19 coverage in mainstream media.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIW3TQpVJYs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vwd79-LGVM0
#180 PastThePeak on 04.11.20 at 10:40 pm
This one is for you, Sail Away:
——————
Russian President Vladimir Putin has imposed a national lockdown across Russia…
It’s OK. I know you are smarter than Vlad. Please reach out to him and tell him that COVID is no big deal…
——————
Vlad must do what he feels best. I have no horse in his race.
#205 Sky on 04.12.20 at 7:02 am
“How is it even possible for 0.36 to equal 36% ? Yet this is the predominant method now found on the net for converting decimals to percentages and is all over the kid’s math sites. Are they teaching this to children in the schools? Back in the day when we had schools, of course.”
********************************************
Are you for real? I’m holding out hope that you just suffer from difficulty with reading comprehension when reading things you find on the internet, but wow.
Sold Out: I also don’t care about hydroxychloroquine in the slightest. Hydro, lollipops… same deal.
I was pointing out what I felt was intellectual sleight of hand in your statement:
“Valiant effort to impart factual information to those who’ve immunised themselves against any intrusion by reality.”
Using the doctor’s words to take a jab at those with different opinions than yourself, without appending, ‘although I myself don’t agree with your assertion about the malaria drug’, is disingenuous.
Again, I don’t care about the drug’s efficacy or lack thereof. Not the point.
@ Leo Trollstoy # 196 :
Death rate > infected
Millennials economy being destroyed to save Boomers
***********
I hear you, Leo.
All boomers – please be extra nice to the millennials on this forum.
Because once the T2 disaster economy comes to full fruition we might need some technological help from the millies and the zeds.
I know I sure do.
My 3D printer keeps spitting out white bread. I wanted whole wheat.
” … this professor of neurobiology …”
NEXT!
You people really don’t get this whole “expert” thing, do you? There are probably some professors over in the history department whose opinions and data are more insightful than a neurobiologist’s — because they’ve actually studied epidemics as part of their life’s work, rather than dropping in like a tourist a few weeks ago.
If you can’t find many (or any) actual virologists to buttress your position, that should tell you something.
WOW-this is a shocker-high profile ultra left wing Bill Maher calls out Communist China for this virus-the other day when I predicted Peak Popularity for Communist China in the West had passed I didn’t think guys like Maher (a mouthpiece for the Dems) would jump on board https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htUlcy1yNbw
Garth and the team,…as well as dogs
I have been noticing a huge amount of chatter on the internet calling for a massive Debt Jubalee.
They argue that this will stave off massive recession with repercussions.
If this happens, can they actually confiscate cash savings in banks to relieve debters?
Can we blog on this?
Seems like this is a more imminent crises than the virus.
Well, this is a new one for me. BREAKING NEWS. Buyers are predators. Read all about it.
https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/04/10/they-bought-a-new-home-but-cant-sell-their-old-one-and-in-some-cases-have-lost-their-income-the-devastating-impact-covid-19-is-having-on-toronto-homebuyers.html
So buyers are predators because greedy sellers are retarded and leave themselves open to be eviscerated.
We’ve already seen “Landlords keep your distance, Renters keep your rent.” Is it now time for “Sellers keep your distance, Buyers make no offers.”?
#200 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 6:00 am
It’s amazing how many crackpot experts have been discovered by the internet’s hordes of unlettered crackpots. At least now I’ve heard of Rockefeller University.
—
That’s your limitation.
https://www.rockefeller.edu/about/awards/nobel-prize/
@ TalkingPie – # 210
O.36 is NOT 36%. It is less than 1%. Remember all numbers to the RIGHT of the decimal are less than one.
To put it another way : One ( 1 ) is a whole number. Numbers to the RIGHT of a decimal point are fractions of the number 1. So 0.36 can also be expressed as slightly more than 1/3 of one percent.
Read the second link. I give up.
Latest statistical breakdown for Ontario. For some reason a federal breakdown for deaths by age (heading “Severity”, Table 3) is not available. Also a note of interest is that hospitalizations and ICU stats are “cumulative”. Wonder why they wanna pump up the numbers?
We overshot here folks. Time to end the madness and spend our resources to protect the vulnerable.
https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2020-04-10.pdf
“That’s your limitation.”
Prestigious but small. With a student body numbering 218, I’m guessing you hadn’t heard of Rockefeller University either. Regardless, the prof you quoted isn’t an expert in a relevant field.
@201 Figure it Out-
You need to change your username.
#205 Sky Are you for real?
In Orillia, 0.77% of all the families said yes.
#213 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 8:58 am
” … this professor of neurobiology …”
NEXT!
You people really don’t get this whole “expert” thing, do you? There are probably some professors over in the history department whose opinions and data are more insightful than a neurobiologist’s — because they’ve actually studied epidemics as part of their life’s work, rather than dropping in like a tourist a few weeks ago.
If you can’t find many (or any) actual virologists to buttress your position, that should tell you something.
—
Funny, he is talking about how people commonly dismiss information based on what the source is – instead of the information itself.
Are you ever going to start to discuss the information, instead of the messenger?
If not, then the NEXT! applies to you.
@#215 cto on 04.12.20 at 9:13 am
Garth and the team,…as well as dogs
I have been noticing a huge amount of chatter on the internet calling for a massive Debt Jubalee.
They argue that this will stave off massive recession with repercussions.
____________________________________
that’s just wishful thinking on the part of folks carrying obscene amounts of debt. will never happen.
@#214 BrianT on 04.12.20 at 9:01 am
WOW-this is a shocker-high profile ultra left wing Bill Maher calls out Communist China for this virus-the other day when I predicted Peak Popularity for Communist China in the West had passed I didn’t think guys like Maher (a mouthpiece for the Dems) would jump on board https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htUlcy1yNbw
_______________________________-
if you could see past your ideology you’d note that he’s just calling a spade a spade. which is his schtick in general.
DELETED
@#201 Figure it Out on 04.12.20 at 6:27 am
#36 Bytor the Snow Dog “Softball questions. Softball answers.”
There’s a whole internet out there. If this is where you come for your COVID news, you’re doing it wrong.
This is where *I* come to check out the Canadian crackpot zeitgeist, as Garth has spent years lovingly cultivating several heirloom strains.
_______________________________
hahaha, great post.
this comments section should be used for entertainment only.
cto “Garth and the team,…as well as dogs. I have been noticing a huge amount of chatter on the internet calling for a massive Debt Jubalee. They argue that this will stave off massive recession with repercussions. If this happens, can they actually confiscate cash savings in banks to relieve debters?”
I think we can kick the can down the road on all this debt for a decade at least. Yes we have a lot of debt outstanding but I see interest rates remaining low for a long time so we should be able to service it. But I do believe one day we’ll have to deal with all this debt and I see a potential global restructuring of the debt. – Ryan L
More importantly, Ryan, what is your opinion on UTILITY ETFs right now? Like ZUT, ZWU, XUT, and similar.
I noticed that my utility ETFs remained fairly stable while broader market indexes dropped drastically.
Would you suggest an increase in the percentage of utility ETFs to curb portfolio volatility?
These utility instruments seem to stay the course while continuing to pay above average yields.
What is your opinion?
Thanks.
198 benny leung
After the 1000 word essay.
I’m assuming you like Singapore?
#205 Sky on 04.12.20 at 7:02 am
Pretty simple really. 10/100 = 0.10 which, taken as a percentage, is 10%. Works for higher numbers too.
@#199 billybob
“And STILL has to endure the sniping, the insults, the low-IQ challenges.”
++++
Its a low IQ thing.
We cant help it ……cause we’re dumb.
I thought my name was the first clue.
The social distance nazi’s win another one……..
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/drive-in-easter-sunday-service-nipawin-saskatchewan-covid-19-coronavirus-1.5529917
…..shut down because people “might” get out of their cars….
If this whole Wu-Flu thing plays out to be a huge “nothing burger’ ….good luck getting anyone to listen the next time something like this happens….
#225-oh bouy-LOL! Maher spent a couple years pushing the absurd Trump is a Russian spy garbage (funny how that narrative just somehow vanished into thin air)-yeah Bill Maher is a real truth teller. Jeez.
#198 Benny Leung on 04.12.20 at 4:23 am
You wish . I’m watching CNA, my regional news channel for Asia. The Covid response in Singapore has been so much more professional and responsive. Singapore’s PM Lee is the kind of leader Canadians could only about during a crisis. He’s really leading the charge. He’s out front, surrounded by the best minds and most qualified people in the country. It’s calm and firm, things get done, without panic.
Of course, Singapore is a meritocracy, where only the best are elevated in leadership positions. Unlike Canada, where part time drama teachers and graphic artists make the Corona response a disastrous failure.
+++++++++++++++++++++
Truer words have never been said. And it isn’t just Canada either (although our federal leadership is the weakest) – all of the West (with its PC and woke culture) has failed miserably in responding to COVID-19. The information was released at start of January, and all countries did nothing for 2 months. Then it has been one reaction to another, often overturning actions done just two weeks earlier.
The greater tragedy – NOTHING will be learned from this. Canadian politicians will not look to Singapore and Taiwan & determine how to do better…they will just bicker and blame the other political parties, spending tons of money without any benefit.
“I think we can kick the can down the road on all this debt for a decade at least. Yes we have a lot of debt outstanding but I see interest rates remaining low for a long time so we should be able to service it. But I do believe one day we’ll have to deal with all this debt and I see a potential global restructuring of the debt. – Ryan L”
-What’s the plan for us who are saving for retirement and will be in the market during that time?
10 years is not that long for economies and markets.
Any thoughts?
MF
#193 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.12.20 at 12:28 am
For future policy, we need to consider the way we raise animals. China should crack down on the ‘wet markets’, and ban them. For years, the government supported wet markets because it employed so many people.
——–
Shawn,
So you agree with Trump that this is a China Virus.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Well, it could be called the Wuhan Virus, which is exactly what the Chinese government called it in the beginning…
@Shawn and Ryan-
I should have framed my questions in a better fashion. I apologize for the snarkiness.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/petition-calling-for-who-boss-tedros-to-resign-nears-1m-signatures
100k people dies of Covid-19.
I heard a stat on a news radio discussion that over same time span 150k people died of hunger.
I found this quite sobering, because we do have the vaccine for hunger.
Even Murphy is rolling now.
#13 TurnerNation That is pretty good foresight. But I wouldn’t be worried about it lasting too long. I think Bill and Melinda will have a vaccine before we lose too much weight.. just enough to make us beg for it.
Despite Mr. Turner repeatedly saying otherwise, this now officially appears to be a virus blog.
;-)
#228 Ryan Lewenza
“I think we can kick the can down the road on all this debt for a decade at least. Yes we have a lot of debt outstanding but I see interest rates remaining low for a long time so we should be able to service it. But I do believe one day we’ll have to deal with all this debt and I see a potential global restructuring of the debt. – Ryan L”
Thanks for the swift reply…i hope you’re right.
A Debt Jubalee to me is just about as bad as being invaded by a foreign country and having everything that i have sacrificed, worked hard, and saved for suddenly taken from me…to the benefit of the new regime.
Shawn is treatment with antiviral like below given to covid-19 patients in Canada?
National Post: Two-thirds of acute coronavirus cases tested on antiviral drug improved.
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/two-thirds-of-acute-coronavirus-cases-tested-on-antiviral-drug-improved
228 Ryan Lewenza on 04.12.20 at 10:13 am
cto “Garth and the team,…as well as dogs. I have been noticing a huge amount of chatter on the internet calling for a massive Debt Jubalee. They argue that this will stave off massive recession with repercussions. If this happens, can they actually confiscate cash savings in banks to relieve debters?”
I think we can kick the can down the road on all this debt for a decade at least. Yes we have a lot of debt outstanding but I see interest rates remaining low for a long time so we should be able to service it. But I do believe one day we’ll have to deal with all this debt and I see a potential global restructuring of the debt. – Ryan L
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
There is a larger problem that is not being addressed and if anyone wants to know some real insight to make you go HHMMMMMM
DEBT is the problem, and we need to get balls and address this.
I suggest you follow this link to this date and scroll to the time and listen to M. Cambells insight into what the problem is. Here is some straight goods as the troubles we are in.
April 11 scan to 8:35
https://globalnews.ca/pages/audio-vault-cknw/?gref=cknw
cheers
“Funny, he is talking about how people commonly dismiss information based on what the source is – instead of the information itself. Are you ever going to start to discuss the information, instead of the messenger?”
No. I don’t waste my time reading/watching the opinions of non-experts when I could instead be reading the opinions/research of experts. I use this rule in most fields, but especially the hard sciences.
Could someone from outside the virology field contribute to our understanding of COVID? Sure; even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. But the chances are low, much lower than rando university educated non-expert says stuff that’s dumb, wrong, obvious, or half-baked.
Why not concentrate on explanations and research from actual virologists? There’s plenty of them, and much of their writing — both for fellow experts, and for laymen — is available on the internet for free. So I just naturally assume that when someone (e.g. you) promotes non-expert opinion, it’s because they don’t like the expert consensus, and can’t find experts whose opinion they like.
When you double down and find some other non-expert (the neurobiologist) who endorses your first non-expert, I become even LESS likely to read any of it, because you’ve just demonstrated that you can’t figure out the difference between a persuasive and an unpersuasive argument. You posted links to the Youtube channel of a guy who’s been making videos about bicycling around Pittsburgh up until a month ago, and half of his videos since have “The New World Order” in the title. Maybe he fell off his bike and hit his head? Now all your endorsements become a liability in my scoring system.
#218 Sky on 04.12.20 at 9:35 am
@ TalkingPie – # 210
O.36 is NOT 36%. It is less than 1%. Remember all numbers to the RIGHT of the decimal are less than one.
To put it another way : One ( 1 ) is a whole number. Numbers to the RIGHT of a decimal point are fractions of the number 1. So 0.36 can also be expressed as slightly more than 1/3 of one percent.
Read the second link. I give up.
…….
.36 = 36/100 = 36%
Now, .36% is a different story .36/100 = .36%
#236 MF
I’m with MF, whats the plan for 10 years out???
How will we save our retirement? Will it be possible? and in what capacity?
Maybe material things are the safest…
@ Trojan Horse #231:
Pretty simple really. 10/100 = 0.10 which, taken as a percentage, is 10%. Works for higher numbers too.
***************
99.5 + 0.5 = 100
If 0.5 = 50% what does 99.5 = ??
See how crazy it can get. When using percentages I like to limit down to 100% of whatever’s being measured. When you get into the 1000% or 10,000% of whatever you’re talking about it makes its needlessly complicated. Why not just say 10 times more, or 100 times more.
And if the flu rate is something like 0.7 % it’s important for people to remember that number is less than 1%. Or less than one person in every hundred. With numbers to the right of a decimal always representing less than 1.
Simplify.
They better unlock us soon or we’ll all go nuts.
#228 Ryan Lewenza on 04.12.20 at 10:13 am
I think we can kick the can down the road on all this debt for a decade at least. Yes we have a lot of debt outstanding but I see interest rates remaining low for a long time so we should be able to service it. But I do believe one day we’ll have to deal with all this debt and I see a potential global restructuring of the debt. – Ryan L
—
Hi Ryan,
Thanks.
Are you saying that we have no idea how to deal with this, but hopefully in the next ten years we develop one, in the meantime, G_d, I mean, low interest rates willing, we will somehow survive?
Have you read or heard of Jeff Booth’s book, The Price of Tomorrow?
“Even before Ben Bernanke made the official declaration that the Fed is in fact targeting inflation, economists and governments around the world have counted on it to manage ever increasing debts. Jeff Booth, author of “The Price of Tomorrow,” argues that they are fighting an inevitably losing battle. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Booth makes the case that secular deflationary trends will be the ultimate undoing of monetary policy and technology is driving this deflation at an increasing rate. He touches on several of the most culpable technologies, the potential issues society will face as a result.”
https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/the-central-banks-losing-battle-with-deflation
Hello Shawn, The last week of December I bought a box of 3M 1870 N95 masks after watching an interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm, quote ” If you want to see what North America is going to look like in 4 months just look at China”.
My question, to keep these masks sanitized longer is it possible to lightly spray the surface with peroxide and dry before useing again.
#30 YouKnowWho on 04.11.20 at 2:02 pm
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
I have been holding off to get deeper into my views about this as I just read the rest of comments.
However to carry on with the thoughts of who is and isn’t healthy…
next time anyone is in safeway, or pick a food store. Take a look at what people have in their carts….
How many shopper’s carts are filled with processed “easy fast” foods? there is no money in fresh vegetables and meat that needs to be actually cooked. (no money and no factory jobs)
I was taught at an early age 7-8 how to cook and how to shop. stay away from the middle isles of the food stores as this is 100% processed.
no one steaming broccoli will be eating sugar and corn syrup. In the states all farmers are subsidized to grow corn, and what does that corn do? straight into processed foods. Garbage in, Garbage out.
I understand that people are busy, however, if they were taught how to cook they can whip up a healthy meal in 30 minutes. LAZINESS is the key factor.
why do governments want uneducated students?
In the states the SNAP cards will not allow a person to buy fresh fruit or vegetables. did u know that??
Now we have “skip” MC D’s on the wheels…
cheers
#228 Ryan Lewenza on 04.12.20 at 10:13 am
…
I think we can kick the can down the road on all this debt for a decade at least. Yes we have a lot of debt outstanding but I see interest rates remaining low for a long time so we should be able to service it. But I do believe one day we’ll have to deal with all this debt and I see a potential global restructuring of the debt. – Ryan L
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Hi Ryan, before this pandemic struck, I too was working on a roughly a 10 year timeframe until the advanced economies (and China) would really drown in their own debt.
Given all of the CB and gov’t spending announcements over the last month, and more expected in coming months, I believe that timeframe is closer to 5 years than 10.
And IMO this debt cliff will be far worse for the US than Canada. Yes, our deficits and debt will rise, and our economy will perform poorly (anti-business gov’t), but Canada cannot get away with the debt and CB money printing that the US will do. The US deficit is likely to be 3T this year (ending Sept 30th) and close to that next year. So by end of calendar 2021, US debt could be $30T, or approaching 150% of GDP. It will hit 200% of GDP well before 10 years.
Debt restructuring will mean a slaughter if you own bonds at the time.
There are increasing videos where Doctors and nurses in USA or Italy or other places are stating with fear and anger that…
After decades, the definition of the cause of death has been changed after COVID19 emerged, so that deaths are labeled COVID19 instead of the real cause.
Why?
#230 Crowd. I wish Canada had an adult leader with intellectual prowess, with the conviction to focus solely on the welfare of the citizens. You go to bed at night knowing your leader is working for you and your family. Polls don’t show that Canadians aren’t sleeping that well with Justin in charge.
Trudeau’s spin team is a disgrace. Justin’s priorities are spread too thinly as he tries to appease the many groups who influence him. Why was checking the health of inbound passengers a national fight? That ideology comes from a war zoneb outside Canada. The leadership in meritocracy nations like Singapore and Taiwan is unquestioned by citizens.
To answer your assertion, yes, it feels much safer in Singapore knowing the best of the best is coordinating an active and focused response, vs Canada where the bullcrap spin changes every day and has more politics than science as Canadas COVID pandemic response. Justin’s team changes position as often as he changes his costumes. Best wishes,bgood luck.
https://images.app.goo.gl/PYh47H9bLTHkjvCz7
For the people counting deaths and comparing the reality is nobody is dying from anything else right now. Every death of elderly person will be blamed on this. Bank on it. It makes headlines.
Again 300 posts and no one is relating how they, their friends or family are sick with this thing, anywhere in the world? Day in day out.
Just a question.
If our medical ‘industry’ spent as much energy on preventative medicine (getting people on the proper diet, the right amount of exercise and helping them to stop putting the common poisons in their bodies) as they do on emergent care, would we be facing as dire an ’emergency’ as we are now?
#232 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.12.20 at 10:31 am
@#199 billybob
“And STILL has to endure the sniping, the insults, the low-IQ challenges.”
—————–
Its a low IQ thing.
We cant help it ……cause we’re dumb.
—————–
Likewise. I tried to tie my shoes this morning and reaized.. I forgot how. AGAIN! Good thing the greaterfool site is bookmarked on my computer machine.
Chernobyl!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/world/europe/chernobyl-wildfire.html
Philippine volcano
Chinese Virus
Ukrainian Radiation
…all we need is an earthquake, tsunami, locusts, and politicians to start telling the truth and world end will surely be near!
Thank you Dr. Shawn for your insight. Sometimes I think most of us know more than we should at this point. Wash ones hands and practice social distancing, OK got it. Doing anything less is irresponsible.
Still believe Corona is best served with a wedge of lime. Doing otherwise should be considered a crime.
@#256 Ben Leung
“I wish Canada had an adult leader with intellectual prowess, with the conviction to focus solely on the welfare of the citizens….”
+++++
Alas.
I also wish we had a politician that would make difficult decisions without constantly using the Bank of Canada as a Bag of Cash…
But I’m stuck here….in Canada, in an elevator….. forever…..destined to pay exorbitant taxes.
10 years….maybe 20 before the country crawls out from under the fiscal debtweight imposed upon us by a leader who is “everything to everyone’.
“Pink T-shirts for everyone!”
#164 Drinking on 04.11.20 at 9:22 pm
Just another heads up as to how Albertan’s are helping out once again; I am sure that we will get numerous posts (not here) but on other news sites on how bad we are; anyways, here it is: https://globalnews.ca/news/6807827/alberta-support-covid-19-provincial/
****************************************
They should ship it by pipeline!
#246 kc on 04.12.20 at 11:10 am
“I suggest you follow this link to this date and scroll to the time and listen to M. Cambells insight into what the problem is. Here is some straight goods as the troubles we are in.
April 11 scan to 8:35
https://globalnews.ca/pages/audio-vault-cknw/?gref=cknw ”
-I suggest everyone listen to this little snippet. 8:35 AM. April 11. Thanks kc for that.
MF
@#234 BrianT on 04.12.20 at 10:39 am
#225-oh bouy-LOL! Maher spent a couple years pushing the absurd Trump is a Russian spy garbage (funny how that narrative just somehow vanished into thin air)-yeah Bill Maher is a real truth teller. Jeez.
________
dude, if you’re getting your info from infotainment like bill maher and fox then you have a big problem
“After decades, the definition of the cause of death has been changed after COVID19 emerged, so that deaths are labeled COVID19 instead of the real cause.”
Do you think a lot more people are dying than six months ago, but are dying of something other than COVID? Or that the death rate hasn’t gone up and the whole pandemic thing is fake news? What do the doctors and nurses think?
You guys need to learn more about the debt, where it is and who holds it and how the power of the reserve currency works.
Out of the 22T in debt, half that is on the fed reserves books now and increasing by the day as they buy up everything. Another 6T is held by foreign CBs and 1T by China. The rest of the debt is intergovernmental.
All the US has to do one day is default on that debt restructure the dollar or a new currency and peg it to something real, down goes china and the fed reserve. Fed is a private org, so they can go down in flames, wont hurt us. And China and other CBs, well that’s their problem.
Singapore’s a pretty great place if you like living in a one party state with no free press. The food’s good, too.
A lot of the rest of the worlds debt is in derivatives which are side bets and insurance between individual parties. It doesn’t have to be serviced by us or repaid back. Now some of those big parties could default because of one of these bets. Deutche Bank and JPM are two of the biggest scoundrels out there in that market. That could have a ripple effect but the CBs will just bail them out too and the debt just goes back to that balance sheet. All a big ponzi ferris wheel.
#253 kc on 04.12.20 at 11:44 am
People dont know how to cook, is one of the problems, but what you described was before quarantine days, when people had no time cook. Other day gargle sent me what i call “misery index” (time spent commuting) for march and it was “just” 19 hrs for hole month. what is lot less of my average month depending on what shift i am close to half less.
I gonna he to disagree on this one with you, i went shopping yesterday and produce and meat section was busiest, but it understandable that people will buy higher calorie food and preserved stuff just because of shelf life.
People will get creative eventually.
When i lost old job i knew it will get tight for a while until we adopt, so mutual agreement was reached to hide forks. So “gulash-es” and “tick soups” with slice of bread were just as delicious as inside ribeye roast, maybe because we were hungry, no we were not…
To give you an idea, here it is easy to make soups, kind of, 10-15 max 20cad per meal enough leftover for next day. Start with those 3; croatian bean soup grah, serbian casserole djuvec recipe, greack green peas stew should be enough left overs for a at least 2 days so week covered, “meatier” food on sat sunday. Was that hard?
Note, burrito is not food – its a snack.
#228 Ryan Lewenza on 04.12.20 at 10:13 am
…
I think we can kick the can down the road on all this debt for a decade at least. Yes we have a lot of debt outstanding but I see interest rates remaining low for a long time so we should be able to service it. But I do believe one day we’ll have to deal with all this debt and I see a potential global restructuring of the debt. – Ryan L
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
you wish 10 years.
it’s going to happen soon. why do you think gold is skyrocketing?
#247 Figure it Out
If you watched the video, you would not write about “why not concentrate on explanations and research from actual virologists” – because in the linked video that is exactly what happened. He was citing virology research papers.
He makes his videos about discussing researches, under the title Neurology Journal Club, while biking to work in Pittsburgh.
Somehow you managed to comprehend this as: “who’s been making videos about bicycling around Pittsburgh.” :D
You can also brush up on NWO, from a buttoned up enough messenger, just for you.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1992-03-01/, what-new-world-order
If you are unable to separate the information from the messenger, then we can’t discuss the information.
I am not interested in discussing what you think about the messenger, I care about the information itself.
#218 Sky on 04.12.20 at 9:35 am
@ TalkingPie – # 210
O.36 is NOT 36%. It is less than 1%. Remember all numbers to the RIGHT of the decimal are less than one.
**********
You’re getting confused through inconsistency.
0.36 is in fact 36% of 1
0.36% is far far less. You see that little “%” after the 6? That basically moves the decimal 2 places. Easy to remember as it has two little circles that look like zeroes.
Here’s an example:
10,000 x 0.36 = 3,600
10,000 x 36% = 3,600
See? Same answer.
The mistake would be placing the “36” after the decimal AND adding the “%” as well
10,000 x 0.36% = 36
Different answer. This is because we did both I stead of the first time where we used % or the decimal placement
Try them out on your calculator, i hope that clears it up.
Interesting. But as expected, there still has not been a successful Corona Virus vaccine ever created and it’s still unlikely there will ever be one. Thank you for adding more confirmation Dr. Lewenza to all of my other articles, bloggers, vloggers, posts, analysis, researchers, technicians, lab workers, comments, Doctors etc…
#264 Don Guillermo
Great idea if we actually had a pipeline across Canada; Oh wait?? Guess not, too bad! Back to being the bad people in Confederation!
After taking a break to enjoy the sunny days on west coast single track (the old Beta’s carb tune up was a success) I come back and see there’s even more drama and doom in the comments section. Didn’t think it would get worse.
I’m starting to wonder how so many doomsayers survived ’08. Ya, it’s going to get ugly, but then it always does.
So what.
The way I see it, there are only two possible outcomes.
Either it’s all over–full reset, indexes to zero, banks fail, all pork farms shuttered, houses now worthless, paper currency worth less than TP–and we’re just along for the ride (and in that scenario, no stocked portfolio, mattress, pantry or chest freezer will save you, only delay the inevitable or make you a target).
– Or –
This is business as usual (despite it feeling so unusual, like it always does when things like this happen), what goes down will again go up, everything will be papered over again because who cares, and this will be yet another incredible buying opportunity for equity and, later, real estate investors.
Not sure what other scenarios there could be.
This could be an apt opportunity for a smug Occam’s razor observation (“Which seems more likely to occur, simpler, less complex?”) or even a playful Chicken Little comment (“Dude, you’re right, it’s over, but tell you what, I’ll buy your house / Porsche / farm right now if you want to dump it and run.”) but I won’t stoop to either.
Instead, I’ll just say I’m betting on the latter, and am plowing everything I have into equities like it’s prom night.
Could be wrong and it could be game over, man. But if it is, my paltry portfolio won’t matter anyway. Yours neither.
So why not roll the dice?