“For the first time in 65 years,” the note read, “we are being forced to close.” It could have added, ‘so pray for us.’
Just another piece of paper in another shop window. I have no idea when the place where I buy my shirts and socks will reopen. Or if it will. But I know the guys who own it – father and son – and this week agreed to give them some money against future purchases – cash flow – trying an ensure the doors will swing back open in May. Or June. Or July.
Unfolding is a modern tragedy. Last month our nation lost 1.01 million jobs, double the estimate and eight times worse than ever before. The unemployment rate went up 40% in four weeks. There are now four million people signed up for emergency government support, which is a fifth of the entire workforce. Just the start. April will be worse. Way worse. It’s a certainty Ottawa will have to find more billions.
Almost all losses are (of course) in the private sector. Few government workers have been impacted as Ms.Virus decimates the economy. The labour participation rate has plunged. Far more women than men are seeing their wages wiped out. Youth unemployment’s popped 63%. Most of the destruction is in the service sector, and among people in our society who can least afford adversity.
So why did the stock market gallop higher by hundreds of points, continuing a rally that’s wiped away the sting investors felt?
First, the virus threat may have been overstated. The US just cut its estimates of Covid-related deaths in half. Things are stabilizing in Europe. Canada is flattening the curve. Yes, we are months away from any semblance of normalcy and all deaths are tragic. But that scary talk of 30-60% of the population being infected seems more absurd now than when the federal health minister causally and shockingly tossed it out. Nowhere in the world has this occurred. Why should it happen here?
Second, massive job losses and the systematic dismantling of the economy will bring even more government and central bank cash flooding in. In just three weeks almost 17 million Americans have applied for pogey. Last week alone 6.6 million filed jobless claims. In Toronto last week condo sales crashed 80% and detached home sales were off 69%. Prices have already started to slide – down 9% for houses. More to come. And in the States, a growing real estate crisis is taking shape.
Only 69% of renters have paid landlords for April. About 15 million homeowners are expected to miss payments if the economy stays shut for two more months. In Canada almost 600,000 families have applied to have their mortgages deferred for half a year, even though it inflates their debt load. Meanwhile people trying to obtain or renew mortgages are being rejected by lenders if they’re employed anywhere in the service sector – hotels, car sales, food, mining, oil.
This is a mess spiraling out of government control. Rest assured it will result in gobs of new stimulus. There’s an expectation central banks will consume huge amounts of publicly-traded financial securities as well as injecting more liquidity into the system, buying up additional billions in mortgages, taking loan costs to nothing and in the process throw gas on the markets.
Remember what I said about the crisis augmenting the wealth gap? The poor, low-wage hourly restaurant or hospitality worker loses her only source of income, yet the portfolios of privileged people like me are fully restored.
Where’s the justice in that?
There is none. It’s the legacy of governments who have purposefully idled and disadvantaged those among us who can least sustain the damage. Yes, it was done for a noble reason – to limit illness and death. To save the health care system. Because we were all freaked.
But here are the results, with more troubling ones to come. It’s worth noting, by the way, the emergency order shutting my neighborhood men’s wear store – like all the provincial, municipal and national dictates that have trashed the economy and cost a million families their livelihood – was not voted on. No provincial legislatures approved them. The House of Commons is not sitting. Opposition leaders are self-gelded. The most significant individual economic acts in Canada’s history, and the greatest level of expenditures ever seen, just kinda happened. Because of a virus that has so far taken 462 lives. This compares with 8,511 deaths last year from the flu. And we shut nothing then.
Do not construe this as diminishing the impact of the virus. Not my intent. Polls show two-thirds of Canadians are terrified of being infected, and expect it will occur – when this is wildly unrealistic. Fear is the most powerful emotion. And some is wholly justified. For the families who have seen loved ones stricken and perish, job loss and failed stores matter not. Nor should they.
But once Easter weekend passes, it may be time for questions.
288 comments ↓
First!
All I have to say is “told ya so”
So in this time of uncertainty and business closures, I was thinking of opening a new business to help stimulate the economy. A novelty business selling pins, buttons, t-shirts, bumper stickers and overall COVID-19 pandemic memorabilia. Already trademarked:
I survived the pandemic of 2020! Along with the other 99.999%.
Moist talkers be gone!
World travel is soooo 2019.
Cruises are for suckers!
COVID–Schmovid
Face masks are sexy!
Gold, guns and sanitizer.
TP King
COVID 19 tamed the climate protesters!
Sorry hippies, you’ve lost the cachet of long, unkempt hair.
New Proverb: Cast out the bat that cougheth or shiteth on you.
For the mathematical crowd:
COVID 19 stats are 38% accurate, 51% made up, and 11% bat farts (+or- 3%)
COVID19=(EI+CERB)2MM
Bats 1 – Economy 0
Team V!
Too soon?
To add to the “fear”, T2 today said we won’t have any normalcy for a good 18 months or whenever a vaccine is approved. Yet…. reputable scientific sources say it is antibodies that will be more effective. And those are mere months away.
> It’s worth noting, by the way, the emergency order shutting my neighborhood men’s wear store – like all the provincial, municipal and national dictates that have trashed the economy and cost a million families their livelihood – was not voted on.
Thank you for your perspective. This is the piece that is missing in the mainstream media; holding the politicians feet to the fire for *all* the damage that is occurring; not just virus related.
It is true that very few of us will get the virus. And fewer will die. BUT if we acted like Italy, Spain and the US we will inevitably kill many doctors and nurses and other health care givers.
100 doctors dead in Italy as of this morning. Already several nurses and doctors dead in the US from overwhelmed hospitals. So it isn’t just the fear of us getting infected.
Re: “But that scary talk of 30-60% of the population being infected seems more absurd now that when the federal health minster causally and shockingly tossed it out.”
Did you criticize the estimate, in those terms, when it was released?
Look it up. – Garth
Christ 20% unemployment now?
I wonder if the Canadian pandemic modellers calculated what 20% unemployment will do to the death rate?
That was great Garth.
I mean look it, there will be an antibody test coming out very soon that will let infected and cured and those with natural antibodies to get back to work. It’s an anyday now thing.
The amateur hour Canadian Chief Health Officers (not a Virologist among them) will have to break down and permit the prescription of drugs used that kill the infection off.
When that happens, people will go to work knowing if they get infected they will get cured, sidelined for a week or so.
Italia is dong that right now and planning for May.
Canada should plan for June, you are about 1 month behind us. And I see LOW ATTACK RATES (save poor Quebec) in the rest of Canada, so no worries Canada, more like PATIENCE (even in Valhalla).
So chin up, pressure Gov and Health Officers to get there act together and we’ll see this thru.
For job losses, choked, it will take years for the economy to properly recover (jobs returning). Best focus on the positives above that will work.
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And as an Italian, I feel for you sartorially.
WHAT a kind and selfless act that was by you Garth helping your fellow man out in need, wonderful, just wonderful, REALLY.
Garth, please fix your numbers or state your source. According to infection prevention and control Canada the total annual deaths from flu are 500 – 1500 per year on average.
https://ipac-canada.org/influenza-resources.php
I agree that what we are all experiencing is a major economic tragedy. I’ll contend that it is also a major health tragedy. 500 people dead on top of the typical death rate is 500 people dead. If a hurricane blew through Nova Scotia and killed 500 in Halifax or across the province, it would be a major tragedy. Questions would be asked about why more wasn’t done to prepare the population.
I strongly disagree with the notion of comparing death numbers and thereby justifying or refuting public health action. It’s simply tasteless and ignores the very real possibility that inaction would be worse for both the economy and human life.
I’ll agree though that we won’t know the death rate of COVID-19 until a year or two from now when we have a handle on the # of excess deaths that were reported. Until then, the death numbers (on both sides of the debate) need to be dropped. We don’t know the death rate from COVID-19 because we don’t know the actual number of positives nor do we know the actual numbers of deaths. Flu is better known, but even there, the vast majority of people that get the flu don’t get tested for it and I’m sure that many who die don’t get flu counted as the cause of death.
The flu/pneumonia mortality rate in Canada averages 20 per 100,000 population, or about 7,500 annually. – Garth
Real estate agents continue to say it’s a good time to buy regardless…times are good, buy. Times are bad, buy. Everything is closed during a global pandemic, buy.
A very blunt and very honest article. Thank you.
#3 Freckles on 04.09.20 at 3:29 pm
COVID 19 tamed the climate protesters!
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No, it didn’t. 1) we have enough taste not to pile on or distract from the immediate problem. 2) CO2 emissions are going to be waaaaaaay down this year. Unfortunately at a major cost, but here’s hoping that low oil prices combined with the stimulus/quantitative easing go a long way to helping us switch to renewables. Alberta, you have a lot of wide open and windy prairie space. A billion spent on a pipeline for crappy bitumen sold at a $25 discount was money badly spent.
Bravo Garth
Seen many downturns in my life, but never seen more job losses at the same time than what is happening now. Reminds me that being balanced, diversified, and Liquid is important.
My most important rules, that I learned as a kid, shoveling shit at a racetrack, however, are first, never borrow money for any reason, and, as Buffett says, cash is like oxygen, I always want plenty of it around.
DELETED
So, what? After this, increased immigration, step up money laundering , blaming orange bozo and cheering peoplekind. No questioning self isolation and cowardice of PT2. Just give canuck a chance to make a buck, because canuck lives to make a buck, not vice versa. It is dangerous, however to call virus Ms.
That itself can be proven costly.
Because of the speed of this action, everyone is in shock.
Don’t expect that, or the goodwill that comes with it, to last very long
My crazy ass theory.
The financial world was showing signs of imploding.This corona virus came along.Golden opportunity to flood the financial markets with trillions and trillions of dollars.Once the money is out there then the lock downs are eased.
(If this comment does not get published then I’ll know you are in on it Garth)
Ayn Rand on 04.09.20 at 3:28 pm
All I have to say is “told ya so”
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Oh look. The most famous welfare collector of all is here to gloat.
Seing as this is the Greaterfool comments section, I shouldn’t be surprised that the patron saint of cognitive dissonance would eventually appear.
#3 Freckles
What a self-congratulatory dunce.
Per Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (the accurately predicting, tracking pandemics World Wide for 20 years people):
“between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March”
And that for just 11 countries in Europe (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom).
Canada’s mortality rate about 2%, WITH A LOCKDOWN.
Now re-do your Math. Oh you can’t because of lockdowns.
How worse it would have been, nobody will ever know, but WORSE IT WOULD HAVE BEEN.
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I disagree with you Garth on the “462 lives” per the above. It’s a non sequitur argument.
The flu does not kill rapidly with Bilateral Interstitial Pneumonia and it has a vaccine.
The flu, to your point, did not need a lockdown nor did it infect millions.
# 13 – Faron
No, it didn’t.
_________________
Noted. Can I put you down for a ‘Moist Talkers Be Gone’ bumper sticker?
They put the numbers out this morning – could be 11,000 or could be more than 350,000. Thanks for nothing.
#10 Faron on 04.09.20 at 3:51 pm
Yes, if a hurricane blew through Halifax and killed 500 people, it would be a tragedy. Just like it is right now. A major tragedy that people died from CV-19. However, did they shut down the entire economy of NS for that hurricane for a month, two months, up to 18 months? No!!!
Like public health authorities and the media, you are speculating. Not only that you are speculating on the side of fear. The only thing you can go by are the numbers and the numbers just don’t add up to shuttering the economy for 18 months. So the authorities better smarten up and actually get real numbers then to back up their claims. Until then, it’s all just a shell game.
I thought it was Mrs Virus. Is she now single?
The Mrs complained. – Garth
Dear Mr. Turner,
Upon your advice, we ended up renting a house 7 years and couldn’t be happier.
Our landlord, who got back from China almost 2 years ago (lucky her!), was walking by our house on March 30th while we are outside. She smiled & waved and thanked us for paying our rent ($1400/month) which we always do a few days before month end.
Although we are not the richest people, we believe we incredibly wealthy.
Thank you.
Despite Trudeau’s incompetence, once again by failing to test internation arrivals and not locking things down early enough I’m sure glad the government has shut down many business and restricted movement to minimize risks and prevent unecessary deaths. As Bill Gates said: you can recuscitate and economy but you can’t recuscitate dead bodies piling up.
Took a mortgage out on one of my rental buildings. First time in years I have been in debt. Terrible thing, this virus. Forced me into an unbelievable investment opportunity. Oh well, it’s a two year mortgage. Will pay it back in full, in cash when it comes due.
Took the money and put it into my favourite three index funds, when markets were in their funk following the COVID-19 dip.
I am now up $150,000 US dollars.
Plan is to declare the income, pay the income tax (1/2 what I would have had to pay, if I had actually worked for the money as opposed to just getting it for free), and then pay back the mortgage.
Yay virus.
This is such a nothing burger.
Warren Buffett: “Be fearful when others are greedy, greedy when others are fearful”
I would like the government to post the compatible numbers of deaths directly caused by this virus to the increase in number of suicides, increase in domestic abuse, murder rates country wide, as well as deaths due to people not getting required health treatments, surgeries and medication while the hospitals await a so called massive increase in people with a bad flu.
The young are being asked to sacrifice the prime years of their lives, sacrifice opportunity, freedom, social interaction, right to make a living, just so that the old might live a few more years.
Garth, you write your portfolio is fully restored. I think you are talking about the future outcome, are you not? Otherwise you are among the masters of the universe.
Thank you. – Garth
#6 ThinkOfTheCareGivers
” if we acted like Italy, Spain and the US we will inevitably kill many doctors and nurses and other health care givers.
100 doctors dead in Italy as of this morning. Already several nurses and doctors dead in the US from overwhelmed hospitals. So it isn’t just the fear of us getting infected. ”
Exactly. Who would take care of those injured or sick due to reasons other than COVID-19?
And who in their right mind would want a career as a health care provider knowing that in the case of a pandemic, their government would respond with “it’s just a flu, suck it up and get back to work”?
Aww for the picture. A mastiff to lean on you is a pretty good comfort measure.
The flu/pneumonia mortality rate in Canada averages 20 per 100,000 population, or about 7,500 annually. – Garth
=0.02% equal to an Attack Rate.
—————-
Germany is estimated to have one of the lowest attack rates at 0.7% -Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
Other Attack Rates:
Italy 9.8%
UK 2.7%
Norway (the lowest) 0.41%
Spain 15%
-Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
—————————–
Divide 0.02% into the above rates and you’ll begin to understand the virulence of C19.
To compare it to the flu is ill informed BUT NOT YOUR FAULT GARTH.
It’s the fault of Canadian Chief Health Officers lack of public information or its know how, communicating poorly beyond words and the Glee Club Cdn. MSM that keeps parroting “glimmer of hope” messages which shows their inability to do basic math, simple research per the above (though TOEFL a must) and fact checking on their own.
I did it. And I’m not even paid to do it.
The dumbing of a nation. Thank God Canadians are a fearful lot, they have good to reason to be and their gut feel, oh so correct.
The virus is the sideshow. It’s the economy that will haunt us for a decade….or2….or3….
Great post Garth. Thanks
Perspective is good as Gratitude these days.
Attaboy Garth
Someone’s got to start saying things that
don’t fit their plan.
Just imagine if these people were in charge of Juno Beach that fateful day.
Broken record here Garth but I am so impressed with what you did for that Father Son business I am at a loss to express adequately in words.
I may disagree with you at times, but you have my deep respect.
Now if only the rest of the well healed in Canada were but half as generous as you.
What a Canada that would be.
The whole reason is hasn’t gotten terrible here is because we shut things down and have stayed inside. There are numerous examples what has happened to the places that didn’t do that quickly enough.
Play me the tiniest violin for the neighbourhood clothing store going out of business. I’d rather my grandfather not die alone with a tube down his throat. To suggest otherwise is so profoundly ghoulishly greedy.
Re:Reits CRT.UN consists of properties anchored by Cdn. Tire: ARP.UN.income producing CDN auto dealerships with AFFO of 86.6%, Now to the good part: My prediction~In 9 months we experience a Big Baby BOOM=Gov’t strain~oh well..
I don’t know when the “woke” generation is going to wake up and realise the pain being felt is all on them to save the old rich boomers from a slightly earlier than normal demise.
The young moisters are the ones losing their jobs and futures to put the countries into self-imposed depressions that will destroy their livelihoods and jack their tax rates and/or inflation rates for decades to come.
And all of us should be rightly pissed at the civil liberties taken away without any rights or votes.
If this continues into March, expect massive civil unrest. I’ll be participating, and this hasn’t cost me a dime so far, I just don’t believe in taking away people’s most basic rights and harassing people for going for a walk without any kind of evidence.
That was ugly. – Garth
Economic and health tragedy. Without a lockdown the tragedy would be beyond epic for both the economy and human lives.
There IS no easy answer here other than to acknowledge that not only are we not immune to this virus, we are also not immune to crises of all kinds that appear to harken back to medieval times. We may also have a food crisis next year.
The government has to do what it is currently doing. They have no choice. It is terrible.
So, CERB is fully taxable as income, with nothing deducted at source. Do we expect this to result in more than a few surprises come 2020 tax season?
It still shocks me that so many Canadians are demanding more government oversight and interference in our lives.
The most dangerous words ever spoken: “I’m the government, and I’m here to help.”
Inflation 2.0
The jobs are not coming back. Most of the layoffs are in industries which can rehire cheaper and more desperate workers, such as 19 year old high school graduates. Try getting a 30-something Millennial barista working $14 an hour to compete with 7.7 billion other potential baristas across the globe. Once that job is gone; it’s gone. It’s not coming back.
The jobs report will show that the Coronavirus is the pin which pricked the bubble and not the cause.
It is unsustainable for the working class in Toronto to earn $4,000 median a month while paying over 50% in rent (when the land for the apartment was bought for that same amount of money 50 years ago).
Toronto is one city which will soon collapse and have an underclass of the unemployed. And no, welfare isn’t going to cover the food costs, much less the rent. Try finding a place to stay in Toronto for $700 a month. It’s impossible. People will resort to crime and robbery to get by in Canada after the CERB is done with in June of 2020.
THIS is the Macronical where the future starts today ™:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBKQqygTFKg
#21 Dolce Vita on 04.09.20 at 4:09 pm
Yes, the flu does have a vaccine. However, in the States the “vaccine” was only 45% effective up to February 2020 and in Canada it was marginally better 58% for the same time period.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/midseason-flu-vaccine-yields-45-protection-us-58-canada
They essentially try to guess which strain will be more prevalent for the season to determine which “vaccine” to use. So based on those numbers, even if a vaccine were somehow developed for CV-19 in the near future, chances are it is not going to be entirely effective.
Annual deaths from the seasonal flu are in the range of 290,000 to 650,000 worldwide as per WHO.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
In the US alone, about 35 million people got the seasonal flu in 2018-19.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
During the 2018-19 flu season in Canada there were about 40,000 CONFIRMED cases. I can’t find the stats for how many potential cases there were.
https://ipac-canada.org/influenza-resources.php
Sorry Dolce, but you’re way off.
Freckles: Too soon?
On the contrary, not a moment too soon. First time I smiled today. Keep them coming and I’ll be sure to buy one of those pins.
In the meantime I’ve been wondering how were going to climb out of this crater that the grasshopper king is creating by literally giving away the farm. For what it’s worth here’s one idea: Put the GST back up to 7%. I think this has some merits both politically and economically. When Stephen Harper cut the GST to 5% he expected people to be dancing in the streets singing his praises. Didn’t happen. Instead the proles offered a collective yawn and the economist crowd rolled their eyes. I suspect putting it back to 7% will draw little to no political blowback while offering a guaranteed and instant revenue bump to our bankrupt government. After all, everybodys got to buy stuff and this tax is pretty hard to dodge for those not actively involved in the dark economy (mostly labor not materials). Also it has the advantage of being pseudo progressive in that folks with more money tend to spend more and thus pay more tax. Thoughts anyone? (no ad hominems please).
Public health experts: we are driving towards a cliff
Governments: turn the wheel, avoid the cliff
Internet: the cliff was never a threat
We have 462 deaths because we turned the wheel. If we didn’t? New York or Italy in Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, etc…
So how bad would that have been? New York population is 20 million, so assuming the quoted flu stats are similar, 20 per 100,000 means flu season in New York causes about 4000 deaths over several months.
They are currently 7000 dead (and wll go higher) *in three weeks*, not several months. (remember last flu season when NYC had reefer trucks for morgues? me neither)
The same in Canada would have meant over 10,000 deaths Canada, in less time than resources could handle.
That is the train we avoided by stepping off the tracks.
Shutting the economy in NYC did not prevent their deaths. They also turned the wheel. Be careful with your conclusions as there may well be other factors at play. That’s where debate is as useful as compliance. – Garth
Our scientific community is absolutely horrendous. WTF are these eggheads doing? Waiting 18 months for a vaccine that might never come when treatments are staring them in the face. They cant get off the billion dollar drug development treadmill which are often confirmed by 5 yrs of mouse maze studies.
‘Striking’ evidence emerges that TB vaccine may be effective against Covid-19 — countries that use it have TEN TIMES fewer cases
https://www.rt.com/news/485206-tb-vaccine-covid-19/
Remember what I sad about the crisis augmenting the wealth gap? The poor, low-wage hourly restaurant or hospitality worker loses her only source of income, yet the portfolios of privileged people like me are fully restored.
Where’s the justice in that?
There is none.
———
Did somebody kidnap Garth and replace him with an avocado toast eating millennial?
Since when is life fair? Last time I checked, it couldn’t care less about anyone. Either learn the rules of the money game or be roadkill, no? I grew up poorer than shit and in 20 years of working on an average income during that time, I have a 7 figure investment portfolio. You can work hard or you can work smart. Unfortunately, most people are dumb and that is the real reason they’ve now been caught with their pants down financially.
Do you think these same people will learn from this experience and make better choices. A few will but the majority will not. Tough!
What I find most disturbing of all is the sheer level of fear. Despite the fact that the vast majority who contracted this virus will recover – more than 300,000 already have as per the ‘world meter’ website tracking the virus – people seem to be of the opinion that if they get this virus they will die. Facts, logic or rational thought does not apply.
The death rate would have been much more had there been nothing in place to prevent the spread. Initially governments did not take this very seriously and now here we are. One thing that I have learned is that I now truly believe that the death penalty should be abolished as prison is a lot worse and I feel right now I am in a way in a prison and can’t wait to be released, imagine being in a real prison.
Not to sound crass, Garth, but can you and/or Doug and Ryan write up something for those of us who have not lost anything (or may even benefit) how we might prepare ourselves for what might result in the medium term (3-5 years) from all this debt and unprecedented liquidity pumped into the system? Can we expect inflation and how to prepare for that, for example, or any possible changes in strategy to benefit?
I lost my job a month ago. Wife has been given notice, last day is a few weeks. We live in a region that now has (according to news reports) an 85% unemployment rate. Eighty-five percent. Let that sink in.
CERB &EI don’t cover expenses, but they help. As a household we are now deficit situation, which we can weather for a while, mostly because of heeding financial advice from places like this.
I fear my region has a long way to go before we get to recovery mode.
2-4 years to hopefully climb out of the financial abyss the Liebrals have pushed us into….
Thank you for always leaving us on a positive note. That is so very important. We need your team’s strength to keep things in perspective. May I add, lets remember to smile and say hi to people. It never hurts anyone.
Our dedicated canine friends also help, right?
I wish you were still in Politics Garth. It seems to me your article is about using common sense, something our current government has no clues about. T2 said today that we cannot go out to play again unless there is a vaccine. I wonder if he is aware that vaccines in general don’t work as well with older patients. Being it seems this covid19 is a disease that affects the elderly more , does this mean we can NEVER go out again? It’s a virus, they don’t disappear because you stay home and hide. Vaccines can never protect everyone, so eventually risks must be taken. How could our economy ever flourish again, when so many have bought into the myth that life is only to be lived, if it’s without risk??
I don’t know about the rest of you, but I sure wouldn’t want to be a healthcare provider if the majority of commenters at this blog had their way.
If we want dedicated health care providers who will work in our country, we can’t throw them to the wolves expecting them to just deal with it.
I think the fear is well founded. Sure, the death rate is very low. But that’s not all we should be afraid of. Many are left with permanently damaged lung function. If you are someone who is sedentary, it may not matter to you. But I love distance running, and I’m terrified of getting COVID-19, and losing the ability to go for a run. Some people have a hard time walking briskly after recovering from this. Professional athletes have had their abilities destroyed. Studies show that people who recovered from the 2003 SARS epidemic still show it in their lung X-rays.
For all those questioning how serious this virus actually is: I would be curious what you would say to the many health workers in Italy, Spain, and the US who will have PTSD for a very long time as a result of what they went through.
The effects of this virus will be felt there for decades. I’m not saying the government’s actions have been perfect, but I am saddened by all the so-called experts who are so quick to look at a few weeks of incomplete data and throw stones.
If you want to know how serious this is, look at how fast thousands have died compared to an entire year of influenza.
For those interested, I have yet to hear the information contained in this podcast rebuffed: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-peter-attia-drive/id1400828889?i=1000470102859
#1 Erica Michael on 04.09.20 at 3:27 pm
First!
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Erica Michael, I don’t know if that is your real name but you are a super star in my book.
Respect!
My wife and I have been discretely asking various small business owners if they need money. Fortunately, they all seem to be weathering the storm. For how much longer, I do not know. One of owners suggested we donate money to a local arts council. It seems that several local artists got caught flat footed having prepared to open up exhibits but now, they are unable to and so no sales.
“…talk of 30-60% of the population being infected…”
——
“Confirmed cases” and “infected” are two different variables. You are comparing apples and oranges.
A substantial part of the population will in fact get infected without meaningful symptoms. Just how many won’t be known until there is a test for antibodies to reveal past infections.
Its quite plausible that double-digit percentages will get infected; that doesn’t mean double-digit percentages will show symptoms let alone seek a doctor’s help.
So your argument should really be just what it was in the beginning: an illness from which most people recover.
If there are no symptoms, why do we care? Is that worth destroying the economy for? – Garth
the price of gold will now start to reflect all this money printing. what a great system this “capitalism” has become. stocks decline, fed prints trillions and never reduces it’s balance sheet.
and you think this is all good. better hope you don’t get any blowups in the sovereign debt markets, or any other skeletons out of the closet.
why don’t we just have the FED print money and buy up everything?? what a disgrace.
There’s an expectation central banks will consume huge amounts of publicly-traded financial securities as well as injecting more liquidity into the system, buying up additional billions in mortgages, taking loan costs to nothing and in the process throw gas on the markets.
Garth sir, are you referring to housing market or stock?
Not houses. Real estate is decimated by high unemployment and restricted credit as lenders react. – Garth
Recall to the Coronavirus hoax people I said watch Brazil that refused to do anything per it’s a “measly cold” Pres. Bolsonaro.
Go to John Hopkins to see how the measly cold is going for them.
Hint: They’re closing borders, fewer cases than Canada, double the deaths.
That worked out well.
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#29 Trojan House
Your 1st link: that’s 48 to 58% more protection than the non-existent C19 vaccine provides.
Your 2nd link: Can you not do basic math? Take those flu numbers and using Norway/Canada, your best case scenario = 0.41/0.02 = multiply flu by 20.2 times to get C19 numbers, the minimum.
Your 3rd link: whatever, just multiply by 20.2 times (best case scenario)
Your 4th link: same as above, broken record and I do mean broken.
I am sure you have been running your manifesto by others unchallenged but really, you need to inform yourself better and learn to some basic math using comparative information (yours only looks at the flu – now there’s no comparison in that).
Find the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team data and do some math will you to the flu data you have.
Won’t you be surprised.
#6 Think of the caregivers on 04.09.20 at 3:45 pm
100 doctors dead in Italy as of this morning.
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My wife is an ICU nurse, about as front line as one can get, and I care deeply about this subject. But I am frustrated by the media and other people slinging fear unnecessarily. It’s terrible that 100 doctors died, but that’s significantly less than the general population death rate.
In a quick google search I found Italy had 437000 doctors in 2018 out of a total population of 60.48 million making doctors a net 0.72% of the population. 100 doctors died out of a total of 18279 COVID related deaths making doctors a significantly lower net 0.55% of the deceased.
Granted, the COVID deaths are likely skewed toward people in their retirement years, older than the average doctor. But the numbers above reassures me that my wife is not facing as horrifically increased risk of death as the stories imply. Of course that takes away the drama of the headline, so I wouldn’t expect the media to report anything that takes the 2 minutes of research this takes.
#13 Faron on 04.09.20 at 3:56 pm
#3 Freckles on 04.09.20 at 3:29 pm
COVID 19 tamed the climate protesters!
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No, it didn’t. 1) we have enough taste not to pile on or distract from the immediate problem. 2) CO2 emissions are going to be waaaaaaay down this year. Unfortunately at a major cost, but here’s hoping that low oil prices combined with the stimulus/quantitative easing go a long way to helping us switch to renewables. Alberta, you have a lot of wide open and windy prairie space. A billion spent on a pipeline for crappy bitumen sold at a $25 discount was money badly spent.
/////////////////
Oh Faron :(
And I was starting to like you.
“…..Only 69% of renters have paid landlords for April….”
And renovictions to foster Airbnb are soooo yesterday.
Karma, baby, Karma.
#27 Ace Goodheart on 04.09.20 at 4:26 pm
Took a mortgage out on one of my rental buildings. First time in years I have been in debt. Terrible thing, this virus. Forced me into an unbelievable investment opportunity. Oh well, it’s a two year mortgage. Will pay it back in full, in cash when it comes due.
Took the money and put it into my favourite three index funds, when markets were in their funk following the COVID-19 dip.
I am now up $150,000 US dollars.
Plan is to declare the income, pay the income tax (1/2 what I would have had to pay, if I had actually worked for the money as opposed to just getting it for free), and then pay back the mortgage.
Yay virus.
This is such a nothing burger.
///////////////
HEY! SAIL AWAY.
You gonna take this crap?
This Ace guy is trying to out brag you.
Let’s change the subject back to a couple of days ago…
Please give Dorothy her say…what books can she recommend to get us through this bizarre time. Please and thank you Garth,
Yes, I still appreciate YOUR blog Garth, but can you share your space to diverging topics?
(OK I’m just noisy and love to see what people are reading. It often expands my horizons).
No so fast:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/south-korean-scientists-warn-covid-19-can-spontaneously-reactivate-cured-patients
On another note: Three cheers for Garth for offering help.
Garth, it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation with C19.
C19’s virulence numbers are at least 20X those of the flu, even if at similar mortality rates and if you do nothing…they’ll lynch you for all the deaths.
If you do something, it costs a fortune economically to try and render citizens harmless, but if you don’t…they’ll lynch you for all the economic pain.
I look at this whole thing Garth and I think:
CATCH 22.
You cannot win for losing.
“No provincial legislatures approved them. The House of Commons is not sitting. Opposition leaders are self-gelded. The most significant individual economic acts in Canada’s history, and the greatest level of expenditures ever seen, just kinda happened.”
This right here is why I don’t believe what is happening is simply a result of the virus but more a cover for unilateral abuse of our freedoms and financial pillaging of the masses without recourse do to another financial crisis that was already brewing in the Repo market.
It is certainly difficult to know what the Gov’t should be doing with regards to controlling the spread. Sweden’s caseload has shown dramatic increases in the past week, Tokyo has seen a large spike when it seemed like it was under control, and I don’t think any of us here in BC want what is going on in NYC where they were very slow to impose the lockdown. My sense is that we will be living in challenging circumstances even after some segments of the economy are re-opened. How can we open up air-routes all over the globe when some countries are in a much worse way than us in Canada? Not happening. I think it will be very difficult until a vaccine is developed and implemented en-mass.
Where’s the justice in that?
===============
This entire crisis is created by the government like 99% all problems facing mankind.
The government failed to do the ONE single thing that it should do (secure the borders) and ended up doing (as always) what it should not do, which is interfere in the market place by shutting it down.
In a free market those who wanted to stay at home and sacrifice their jobs or businesses voluntarily could have made that choice, without that choice having been forced on the entirety of society.
There is a NEVER a time when the governments interference in the lives of the citizenry, has a net positive outcome, the free market always yields better results.
By like all the masses around the globe, Canadians will vote for ever more government, believing the insanity that government is the solution rather than the problem in the first place.
Because since socialism and free market interference has been a catastrophic failure for the 10000th time it’s been tried…………….so we must go down that road yet again.
And pay the price accordingly!!!
I wonder how many of the posters of late realize exactly how extraordinary they are?
Maybe we should talk hockey for a while…after all you, individually, have probably more policy impact on the NHL that you ever will politically.
I suspect that the vast majority of those reading my comments are going to think I am paranoid but Here goes: If many small businesses will never open up again, who do you think is going to be picking up the equity lost if not the larger firms and especially the giants like Amazon( who pays almost nothing in Canadian taxes). So, are we seeing an even greater concentration of wealth into the hands of fewer and fewer people? So small businesses get an interest free loan of up to $40,000 for the first year but what happens after that. Since the banks will be administering the loans, will they just start charging interest on money that never belonged to them? And what about the vaccine that will supposedly save us all. Who will own the patent and will we all have to pay for it possibly through our governments? So with the projected future Viruses coming down the line, are we seeing but the first of many huge windfalls for the drug companies fortunate enough to get the patents? Is that fair, since governments have financed, as usual, a large portion of the research costs. So much for our great capitalistic system. The noose tightens as more and more of us become serfs to be manipulated by the powers that really run things. If the world was fair, since the super rich who stand to gain handsomely as a result of the lockdown, should they not be billed for the cost of the bailout money to all the people losing their businesses and jobs. After all, the governments we have could have done more to prepare for this type of crisis. One reason they did not,I suggest, is because they have essentially been put in place by the monied interests who believe that efficiency demands that we do not stock up on PPE’s or ensure that adequate facilities exist to test everyone. Maybe in the future this will come to pass but I wouldn’t count on it because the bottomline suffers if assets are left just sitting around. You think our governments actually look after our interests?Given a real choice, how many of us Canadians would have ever approved Canada’s deals with offshore tax havens which have permitted many of the super rich to get out of paying their fair share of taxes. And why have no Canadians been charged as a result of the Panama papers expose. The answer – None.
With the more than likely re-election of Trump, it will be full steam ahead. Especially, if this goes till November. Citizens will have had with sheltering in place by then, too. Trump is not known to be a patient man.
#59 Piano_Man87 on 04.09.20 at 5:22 pm
I think the fear is well founded. Sure, the death rate is very low. But that’s not all we should be afraid of. Many are left with permanently damaged lung function. If you are someone who is sedentary, it may not matter to you. But I love distance running, and I’m terrified of getting COVID-19, and losing the ability to go for a run. Some people have a hard time walking briskly after recovering from this. Professional athletes have had their abilities destroyed. Studies show that people who recovered from the 2003 SARS epidemic still show it in their lung X-rays.
********************************************
You are just flat out lying about pro athletes. The first professional sports league to cancel the season was the NBA in mid March. EVERY player who contracted the virus had mild to no symptoms and is now clear of the virus and are back to their regular training regiment. No abilities have been destroyed, stop talking foolishness.
Poof.
Everybody is ghosting me!
Harry and Melamine have fisted Canada without nary a royal middle finger… slinking into the Hollywood Babylon Cesspool of more deserved fandom base.
My bank won’t even talk to me. I just get bland e mails letting me know were just friends now that my credit rating scanted below her iminimal expectation of a desirous fiscal relationship. Forget the fact that we gave been fiscally intimate for I er 40 years. My dentist is completely awal, and hiding in his Shaunessy panic room.
Only a garbled voice mail and an unupdated web page promising glossy
Dentine from circa 1998.
A pandemic let’s you know who your friends real are. My local bottle picker who sorts the local bin sans personal protection equipment or T2 ‘s charity graft still talks to me. My repairman is still jolly and available… despite all risks resurrecting my temermental dry
er. Aren’t working clothes dryers an essential covid service?
Thus should this perilous scourge get me … they will be my benefactors. Kindness is a daily act practiced without self reflection.
Bless the little people for they are my heroes.
#112 Les on 04.06.20 at 8:15 pm
Poor Boris Johnson. The powers that be are using Covid to get rid of him. Mark my words. He won’t make it out of there alive.
+++++++
I marked your words as suggested. Do you prefer hat or crow?
Does anyone else see it…the slow creepy increase of the fear mongers and bubble wrappers invading supposedly “right wing” blogs and comment sections?
It’s happening here, and the NP comments sections are getting unreadable because of these idiots, and well, because the comment software sucks.
I do. The narrative must be maintained. Remember SJWs, April 30 is when it all falls apart for you.
Book it.
If the lockdown accidentally reduced water treatment chemical production, chemicals as important as the covid19 chemical reagent shortage, then we could cause a cholera epidemic from our tap water. So called non-essential cuts beyond April 30 are risky in unforeseen ways. Politicians and doctors do not know all that is essential for our lives in densely populated cities until the chain link gets cut and something bad happens. Somebody might know and does not have the ear of the central planners regarding what is about to happen.
Polls show two-thirds of Canadians are terrified of being infected, and expect it will occur – when this is wildly unrealistic.- garth
I think 2/3 of us will catch this. Some people think that the real numbers are 10 times higher then what we officially say now. Wait til testing gets better.
This virus …..
RE: THE HUNDRED DECEASED ITALIAN DOCTORS
I’m back on this website after an absence of a few years. Truly appreciated perspectives from Garth. And more than a slight note of anger and worry in this post from Garth, which is concerning, coming from someone as sanguine as Garth. Feels like where I was emotionally 2 weeks ago. Like the song says, “there’s a mighty judgement coming, but I might be wrong”
Now to the point:
Multiple mentions in this comment section about the HUNDRED ITALIAN DOCTORS deceased.
May they all rest in peace, and may they have the final comfort that was almost certainly denied to their bereaved families by these cruel circumstances and stupid, panicky officials
BUT: to be clear this list is a legacy list of mostly elderly, retired individuals who once worked as doctors (and dentists).
Couple weeks back when I cared more I calculated the mean age was 69 and the oldest was 94.
Ok.
Elsewhere, they cite the “hundred dead doctors” and alongside something like 30 dead nurses. How does that even begin to make sense – triple the number of doctors dead vs nurses.
This “hundred Italian dead doctors” is pure CoronaTerror – pure shock propaganda, and pretty stupid at that
How much more of these pornographic Corona lies are out there?
Who knows. But stop repeating the dead Italian doctors nonsense.
The Chinese are going back to work if that makes anyone feel better.
They are further solidifying their supply chain.
You have the housing market to save you. That has been the false economy here for years.
With no loving in our souls and no money in our coats you can’t say we’re satisfied.
Angie ain’t sticking around Ace.
They don’t live on buttons.
#Support Your Local Businesses
I guess you have a lot of money to spread. You are like the Federal Government and Fed throwing in the helicopter money
Just paid the bill for my $2,400 Munsterlander pup. It warms the cockles of my heart to help out high-end hunting dog breeders in these difficult times.
The breeder then demonstrated the sire’s pointing style on a few birds after which we retired to the gun room for manager’s dram Talisker and cigars.
Picked up a nice bottle of wine and takeout Vietnamese on the way home, and, being in a good mood because of the pup, I tipped $200 instead of the usual Corvid $100.
This lockdown is hell. Pure hell.
#49 not 1st on 04.09.20 at 5:07 pm
https://www.rt.com/news/485206-tb-vaccine-covid-19/
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Remember last time RT started showing up in western news feeds? I do, it was during the 2016 US election when Russia was pushing an influence campaign. Pick your propaganda wisely.
Listening to my local 6 o’clock news just now. Covid-19 death predictions for the country: somewhere between 11,000 and 300,000. Of course they led with the 300,000 figure. Fear-mongering and sensationalism. Disgraceful.
“Politicians don’t think of it as blowing up the economy. They think of it as doing what voters want. Voters are concerned about the possibility of catching COVID-19. They are concerned about their older relatives dying. Voters assume that the economy is no problem. In fact, the economists tell them to expect a V shaped recovery. An awfully lot of people think that the “real economy” is separate from what happens elsewhere, but there is a lot of connection.” Gail Tverberg
Garths comment that mortgages not being renewed reminds me of the first time my mortgage came due in 1983 (interest rate of 18.75% by the way). Letter came from the bank ( credit union actually ) stating that your mortgage is due and payable in full at the end of the month. My Mouth fell open, my pants filled up I had no idea that was how this worked. Reminded me of old movies about the depression were they foreclosed on your farm. Fortunately for me next page said “we are willing to extend to you the following mortgage. That’s when I decided this mortgage thing needed to go away as soon as possible, what if that second page was not attached, bank has your house and you have nothing. A real eye opener.
CNBC linked, UN says this may plunge 1/2 Billion people into poverty. They’d know.
For the doomers, not as widespread as you’d hoped; mainstream site in USA:
https://www.kuow.org/stories/washington-state-to-return-centurylink-field-hospital-to-feds
Army field hospital for Covid-19 surge leaves Seattle after 9 days. It never saw a patient
The 250-bed facility, for which setup began on March 30, was intended to help Washington state’s health care system tend to non Covid-19 patients in the event of a hospital surge.
But just three days after announcing the facility was ready to receive patients, officials say they’re returning the hospital to the federal government.
The action is aimed at helping another state with a more significant need for hospital capacity at this time, according to the Governor’s Office. The facility did not see any patients during the time it was slated to operate in Seattle.
Here is a new term for you all. Induced depression.
Just like the induced famine in the Ukraine in the 1930’s.
#70 Penny Henny on 04.09.20 at 5:42 pm
#27 Ace Goodheart on 04.09.20 at 4:26 pm
Took the money and put it into my favourite three index funds, when markets were in their funk following the COVID-19 dip.
I am now up $150,000 US dollars.
Plan is to declare the income, pay the income tax (1/2 what I would have had to pay, if I had actually worked for the money as opposed to just getting it for free), and then pay back the mortgage.
Yay virus.
This is such a nothing burger.
———————-
HEY! SAIL AWAY.
You gonna take this crap?
This Ace guy is trying to out brag you.
———————-
Thanks for the heads up, Penny.
Stop discussing financial moves, Ace. Didn’t you know this blog only argues for or against the Corvid?
And especially talking (bragging?) about success! My god, man. You’re allowed to whine about losses so the masses don’t feel threatened, but don’t talk about success. Geez, what are you? Some kind of elite?
It doesn’t help that people can’t seem to do math, statistics or even think critically.
760 Canadians die each day, 7,700 Americans.
Amor Fati…. it is all just fuel for the fire.
All politicians should have the words; Unintended Consequences tattoed on the backs of their hands. I went on a cycle tour of Ireland in 2000, and was happy to discover that every village had at least 2 pubs. A few years ago I read a book on the death of rural Irish pubs. The soccer mom, nanny state government enacted draconian drunk driving laws. A pint of stout could put you in the pokey. The Guardia would set up roadblocks on the roads into villages and nail everyone driving home. Of course many of the pubs went under. Apparently in Ireland there are lots of bachelor farmers, working alone and living alone. Their whole social life was having a couple pints with their mates at the local. when this was taken from them the suicide rate was far greater than the drunk driver toll. This is where we are.
Re #63:
If there are no symptoms, why do we care? Is that worth destroying the economy for? – Garth
—–
In truth, I don’t know. Quite possibly it isn’t.
The danger is walking the fine line between suggesting public health models are “wrong” versus acknowledging they could be valid in their own way but are not meant to capture economic consequences of public policy.
Having said that, I’d be curious of the longer-term economic pros/cons of avoiding loss of life. It might be emotionally painful, but there probably is a practical price tag on human life where measures up to that price pay for themselves… yet measures beyond that price are costlier than the benefit.
The million (well, trillion) dollar question is whether governments all over the world are overpaying or not. Hard for me to judge until we know the outcome.
“Polls show two-thirds of Canadians are terrified of being infected, and expect it will occur – when this is wildly unrealistic.”
Garth,
You and I and our families have likely each had other strains of coronavirus (along with adenovirus and rhinovirus) that only caused cold symptoms. These viruses are ubiquitous and easily transmitted. In all likelihood, we likely will contract CV-19 at some point. Am I stressed about catching it myself? No. Could it take me out? Perhaps, but that’s life. Interesting times.
BC Doc
https://www.hopkinsguides.com/hopkins/view/Johns_Hopkins_ABX_Guide/540143/all/Coronavirus
Ch
Told-Ya-So ! The decisions to lock down and close-up our economy was a HUGE mistake. Their models were wrong and fraudulent. Now millions have lost their jobs. Your medical, media and political idiots have done this to us! Lies, lies and more lies! We should all be able to sue them! Why so many people listened to and followed these clowns bewilders me. What a mess we have stumbled ourselves into and we inflicted this on ourselves. We listened to people who have no clue of the complexities of our interconnected economy and no clue of the HUGE damage that has been done. Canada, you were lied to, this is a fraud and you’re paying for it with your livelihoods!
That was really good of you to help out your local clothing store Garth.
My 6 biggest Canadian SF Detached chart is up:
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html
Vancouver underwhelms
Calgary drifts down
Toronto at resistance
Ottawa at resistance
Montreal at new price highs but Edmonton now 3% below the Plunge-O-Meter 2013 target
At the beginning of the week I searched Vancouver Craigslist “apts/housing for rent” with a filter selected for “furnished” There were 72 listings.
Today there are 3000:
https://vancouver.craigslist.org/search/apa?bundleDuplicates=1&availabilityMode=0&is_furnished=1&sale_date=all+dates
If you are a renter or a buyer, it’s time to sharpen your pencil.
Legend has it that Christ rose from the dead on Easter Sunday, bringing salvation to all mankind. Perhaps this Easter brings hope again?
Garth, thank you for your balanced review of the situation, acknowledging the tragedy but also reminding us that there will be a tomorrow. And a tomorrow after that. The sun will still rise and the rivers will still flow and eventually we will crawl out from under the bed and the human spirit will march on in all its corrupt glory. Maybe we will learn a few things. As Adam and Eve learned when they ate the wrong apples, you don’t mess with some things.
#2 Ayn Rand.
Unbelievable coincidence. I was watching a Neil Peart interview at lunchtime today, before Garth posted this. Mind Blown… Strange times.
First time poster, first time suck-up, long time lurker. (Well…I’m only 31 so at least 1/3rd of my life)
Garth, your blog is the only vindicating reason to open my laptop on a daily basis. Thank-you. I would follow you into war.
Wow. Just wow.
Sad that on a financial blog a significant number of people don’t understand simple math.
The unchecked expansion rate of this infection is between 33% and 50% per day.
33% increase per day means you go from 100 to 1M cases in a month.
Some percentage of these are asymptomatic. Unchecked they become super spreaders due to all that breathing and such.
Physical distancing is ALL that prevents unchecked expansion. B.C. did it early and have flattened. Other areas of the world did not do it early and have seen or will see massive increases (watch Florida).
A percentage of those cases require hospitalization, which is a limited resource. When it runs out we’re all screwed.
The fact that physical distancing works is not evidence that we shouldn’t have done. It is proof that we should have and must continue to do it.
Removing physical distancing in a population with no significant immunity will revert to the 33-50% unchecked expansion rate.
The lockdowns are an attempt to prevent deaths caused not only by the virus, but from an overwhelmed healthcare system. With or without the Rona, there will still be serious falls, heart attacks and strokes, car accident victims, immunocompromised people, gunshot victims, pregnant moms with life-threatening complications, etc. Where will they find care when all available beds are over-saturated with infected people? You keep blaming the government for chopping off a finger when the alternative would have been decapitation. Kind of hard to benefit from economic growth when you’re dead.
At #208 Herb on 03.16.20, 10:34 am, I linked to a 10 minute video (with English sub-titles) by a German pulmonologist who severely criticized on factual and statistical grounds how the Corona Crisis was being handled by the medical profession and government. He has been vilified for his efforts by personal attacks on his retired status, age and reliance on YouTube and the internet, but has not been disproved with facts, perhaps the ultimate proof that he is right. He also has found support from other specialists.
The facts, faulty statistics and panic he attacked have not changed, so he is worth watching again –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI
I guess we can expect real stagflation in the coming months and years. Isn’t that going to be fun.
We’ve seen little inflation over previous years of quantitative easing because that money created by the fed didn’t by any great extent surface in the real economy.
Now with a greater pile of newly created money due to actually be released into the real economy to support the unemployed through the pandemic, inflationary pressures will mount. Combine all that with a lack of economic growth and you get stagflation. Essentials cost more, non essentials become worth less.
As always, what we are observing here with covid is that government solutions always, always, always make things worse.
Let the people solve the problem and the problem will be solved. Let the government solve the problem and the problem will not only be worse but it will also never go away. All these new covid experts are not going to suddenly resign when this is over. Indeed it is in their best interest to make sure it is never over. It’s going to buy them a new mansion with a pool.
Business update:
The government is now subsidizing 75% of employee salary for up to 12 weeks and is giving $40k interest-free loans, with $10k forgivable if paid off within 3 years. After three years, the loan can be extended for another 3 years at 5% interest.
Yowza!
The $40k loan is almost irrelevant for us, since it represents (for illustrative purposes) about 30% of one month’s payroll, but the $10k forgivable will be nice, and the wage subsidy is big.
Some observations about flattening the curve.
– The curve depicts the rate of new infections.
– The shaded part under the curve represents the total number of people who are expected to be infected.
– It matters not whether the curve is tall and skinny, or low and broad – the number of people expected to be infected is THE SAME in both cases.
– Isolation and social distancing are only intended to slow the rate of new infections; this is essential to give infected people time to get better so that health care resources are not overwhelmed.
Slowing the rates of new infections also allow the authorities to increase resources to answer the threat.
– More masks
– More more PPE
– More beds, more rooms
– More ventilators
As those new resources come online, the capacity of the healthcare system will grow. With increasing capacity, some restrictions will be lifted, as the system will be able to tolerate more infected people.
But flattening the curve will NOT end the threat.
The virus survives in the population by passing from host to host. If the virus’ current hosts do not pass it on either by quarantine (enforced) or self-isolation (voluntary) and the virus runs its course, then the chain of infection can be broken, and pockets or clusters can be managed more effectively.
But this is NOT happening at the moment.
– Currently, testing is completely inadequate to accurately assess the true numbers of infections; in Canada, at the moment, testing is only used to confirm a diagnosis in the presence of symptoms or strong suspicion.
– Flattening the curve also gives time to get more test kits and testing services.
– With enough test kits, authorities can stop playing catch-up and defense, and start getting proactive: identifying infected people even if they are not symptomatic, isolating them, tracing their contacts, and then finding, and isolating them. Then, and only then, will they start breaking the chain of new infections.
And that will bring up all kinds of new questions:
– Most isolation and social distancing actions taken to date have been voluntary. Authorities have asked some businesses to shut down, and most have complied without challenging the orders. Fear is doing the job that enforcement cannot.
– What’s going to happen when the authorities have the capacity to come to your home, or your office, or your kids’ school, and compel you to answer questions about where you have been, and who you have been there with? A MAJOR invasion of privacy, you say? They already have that authority under current laws.
– And what if you are told you need to take a two-week unpaid quarantine, just because you booked a cruise with some dude who can’t stop picking his nose and wiping it on everything? Retribution? Sue the ‘superspreader’ for damages? Not likely. Not even a remote possibility, so it would seem, given recent events.
#73 Dolce Vita on 04.09.20 at 5:46 pm
Garth, it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation with C19.
C19’s virulence numbers are at least 20X those of the flu, even if at similar mortality rates and if you do nothing…they’ll lynch you for all the deaths.
If you do something, it costs a fortune economically to try and render citizens harmless, but if you don’t…they’ll lynch you for all the economic pain.
I look at this whole thing Garth and I think:
CATCH 22.
You cannot win for losing.
———————————————————–
Brilliant comment.
Imagine we do none of the social distancing thing, decide the economy is too shaky to withstand a shutdown, and 5-10x the people get sick. The political fallout would be enormous.
Conservatives moaning about the economy now would instead be tearing into T2 for being weak and doing nothing and letting people die. Liberals now who may be supportive of the measures would also be enraged at the gov for doing nothing and letting people die.
The do nothing approach would also depend on every other significant world government doing the same, otherwise everyone would point and squeal “why aren’t we doing as X does?!”
Hey Penny,
The things you insinuate I brag about were and are financial instruments fully available to everyone.
I did post on here in real time about my market moves as I was making them. Then my summary earlier today detailed how it all worked out. Maybe you should just follow along instead of whining. Then you’d be rich.
But you probably know better. It’s a common theme.
“The poor, low-wage hourly restaurant or hospitality worker loses her only source of income, yet the portfolios of privileged people like me are fully restored.
Where’s the justice in that?”
In my TFSA, I made a bet on some tech stocks (Amazon, Google) and a balanced portfolio. They performed well, and I’m even. It’s like this crisis didn’t happen at all. I’m lucky but it just doesn’t feel right to be honest. The world will be different, but my portfolio is restored. SMH.
The Federal Government justifiably shuts down the economy due to health reasons……a must!
The Federal Government could justifiably shut down the out of balance salaries now paid to federal civil servants or at least the pension justifications and indexing due to economic reasons…….. a must!
Would reduce the ever widening chasm between the 21st. century serfs and the royal court officials.
#66 Dolce Vita on 04.09.20 at 5:33 pm
Well there’s your flaw right there:
“Find the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team data and do some math will you to the flu data you have.”
Do some research on Imperial College and you’ll learn that there numbers are skewed and were withdrawn in the UK. Dr. Ferguson was caught in a bit of a lie, which he earnestly tried on Twitter to get himself out of.
In other words, that 20.2 multiplier is a bit bogus and exactly because of the headlines of today. Nobody has any clue on the numbers. They could be this or they could be that. Not only that, they are counting everyone who died of a respiratory disease as a Covid related death. I put up the link for that the other day so go back and look. Of course you probably ignored because it doesn’t play into YOUR narrative.
The transmission on my truck went. The truck is old and only used for work so spending 3k to fix it plus needing new tires and doing new breaks is not worth the cost. My problem now is that I’m not able to buy a new one. I’ve tried all week, contact multiple dealerships but they all say the same thing. If you pay for it with cash we can do the deal otherwise it’s impossible because our financing divisions are closed. Now I have the money to pay cash but why would I want to? This is ridiculous.
I’m at the point now where I would rather get covid and if I beat it be free of this. I’ve gone back to work because I’m stir crazy. I may be crazy for doing so but I don’t care.
#64 PSL
why don’t we just have the FED print money and buy up everything?? what a disgrace.
————————————————————————-
That`s exactly what`s been going on since 2008 and the so called emergency rates forever recovery, Today, Mr. Free Market finally expired and the printing press gears shifted into ponzi hyper-drive.
They can`t reduce the balance sheet`s so called assets . They tried and were hit by a giant Repo-asteroid.
“The central bank astounded markets on Thursday when it announced an historic move to buy risky corporate debt as part of a larger $2.3 trillion rescue package for businesses and municipalities hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic. Just two weeks ago, the Fed drew a line in its whatever-it-takes playbook, saying it would only consider the purchase of investment-grade corporate debt as part of any efforts to pump liquidity into the credit markets.
Under the newly expanded Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF) program, the Fed will now buy what many pension funds will not: speculative grade corporate bonds. Junk. ”
~ fortune.com
Grey dog
Great book alert for man or woman…Every Secret Thing by Emily Cole. Wartime novel about honorable men and women, spies, politics – not a ‘thriller’ by modern definition of that word.
F72ON
Respectfully Garth, I think it is rather early to declare “Nowhere in the world has this occurred. Why should it happen here?” for a virus that has only been around for five months. Nowhere in the world have they not done shutdowns and just let it run through the population – which is where the 30-60% of the population number comes from. Boo to your Minister if he didn’t make that clear. There are no good solutions but given the virus has an infection R0 of almost three (every infected person will pass on on average almost three new infections, which is where the exponential growth comes from), the 30% – 60% number is clearly correct IF we just do business as usual.
@ my local Timmies I’ve noticed the local Metro staff usually frequent it for their morning coffee.
I’m sure they have coffee at their store, but the employees walk over for their break. Likely a get away with their shop buddy. See it every morning walking the dog.
I loaded a gift card with 50 bucks and told the manager to load their order onto that card when anyone shows up in a Metro uniform.
Not gloating, but since Garth brought it up, if anyone can afford to the same, this group can.
Pay it forward if you can.
Opec deal tonight, 10M bbls coming off the market. Hope you filled up last week.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/oil-jumps-ahead-of-make-or-break-opec-meeting.html
Is it safe to do a gift card joke yet…
M45BC
A bit morbid but it was done in WWII.
How about we restart the economy by having the government issue life insurance to all returning workers, just like it did with GI insurance in WWII.
There’s a risk of dying, yes. But the risk to the population is also great if the economy languishes.
Instead of someone dying as in WWII and they said “He bought the farm” for his parents, it would be “He bought the house”.
If we’re at war, mobilize the population with an adult , informed acknowledgement of the risk and ask us all to willingly shoulder that risk.
Keeping us all wrapped up in cotton batten is a snowflake approach and that won’t work.
I know this is very scary to many people to even contemplate but a logical person looking at this fiasco objectively has to at least consider the possibility that the crushing of the small business and non government/non big business sector was the goal of this thing and not an unwanted side effect. I am not saying that is a fact. I am just saying an objective fact is that there has never been anything major done to improve the health of Canadians before if it would harm the economy at all-example-years ago trucks used to be limited to 10 mph slower speed limit on the highway for safety ( a big truck has no stopping power)-this was thrown out and thousands of innocent people have died because of it-I don’t see any posts here whining about those unnecessary deaths-all to save a relatively small amount of money-there are numerous examples-before about a month ago the economy always came first and the health of Canadians was at best a distant second. All of a sudden the same people that always prioritized money over health have now done an instant 180? That is the story many are swallowing.
#27 Ace Goodheart on 04.09.20 at 4:26 pm
—-
Very nice, Ace. I love to see rational people taking opportunities right in front of them.
While the average dude was hoarding tp and waiting for a stimulus cheque, there are opportunities in that market to set yourself up for life.
@#9 Dolce Vita on 04.09.20 at 3:50 pm
“poor Quebec”.
Stop spewing nonsense and disinformation about Quebec! You don’t know squat. We have **more cases documented simply because we test more**. And… most of our cases are in senior residences and old-age long-term care hospital facilities.
Here’s my answer to your comment yesterday, in case you didn’t read it:
#64 Dolce Vita on 04.08.20 at 5:38 pm
FYI: Quebec blew past their best case scenario a few days ago.
Funny, I listen to Premier Legault and Dr Arruda’s press conference every day, and I’ve seen their best/worst scenario (download available to the public here:
https://www.quebec.ca/sante/problemes-de-sante/a-z/coronavirus-2019/) and Quebec is very much close to the best case scenario. I dunno where you get your information from.
Why are all these flight still in the air?
https://www.flightradar24.com/
…all these weeks and months later?
I can’t have a latte in a cafe? I can’t play basketball? But I can fly to Montreal or Vancouver?
Why? How?
Why are commercial planes flying into and out of JFK every day still?
Obviously right to air travel is more important than our civil liberties.
There better be nothing but frikken masks and ventilators on these planes!
50 years from now when historians are gathered around my bedside to record my last observations of days past I will truthfully answer them about “surviving” Covid19.
“It wasnt the virus that drove the population murderously insane.
It wasnt the virus that crushed society and made the majority kill each other.
It wasnt the collapse of the financial system and hanging of most Boomers.
It was the inconsistencies of day to day life.
The inane questions “have you been out of the country the last 14 days” at the Royal Bank for endless months straight……
The lotto ticket stores that will accept your filthy cash but wont redeem your winning ticket….
The cashiers that stand behind shields totaling up the groceries …..and then hand you your bag….
The liquor store clerk that doesnt wear a mask or gloves yet berates you for using a recycled bag…..
The gas station that wont sell coffee or donuts but sells …gas…from the pump….that everyone must touch….
Yes the inconsistencies drove everyone into a murderous, insane rage……..all for a flu that killed less people than a regular annual flu.
@#124 Flop
“Is it safe to do a gift card joke yet…”
&&&&&&
Sure. Go for it.
What could be wrong with it?
Trust me.
Garth,
The 30-60% infection was based on the do nothing scenario. The very low numbers of death (so far!) is a result of social distancing efforts.
While you might not intend to diminish virus impact, you are in fact do just that by misleading people:
e.g.:
do nothing 30-60% infection –> 300K deaths
do what we do now ~10% infection –> 3000 deaths.
We’re killing the economy to PREVENT 300K deaths.
I don’t understand why you keep on mixing the two up.
Action 1 leads to result A,
Action 2 leads to result B
We can’t say result B was so mild, that Action 2 was stupid and we should have done Action 1.
—
Having said that, I agree that society/govt could have voted on which action they preferred. Save the tailor shop or save the nursing home. Seems like we can’t have both, and governments made the choice for us.
Where did I say ‘do nothing’? Extreme statements suggest weak arguments. Of course we should mitigate, but with common sense. Far fewer deaths and not 4 million on pogey. – Garth
Betty White is considered too young to run for President…
M45BC
Mapped: China’s Manufacturing Superpower vs. the World
“In 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump said on the campaign trail, “My plan includes a pledge to restore manufacturing in the United States.” Manufacturing has remained a major emphasis of Trump’s presidency, perhaps never more so than during the coronavirus pandemic, with the invoking of the Defense Production Act. So, what is the state of the U.S., and the global, manufacturing industry?”
Countries with the Five Largest Manufacturing Industries
1. China: $4T (28.37% of world total)
2. United States $2.3T (16.65% of world total)
3. Japan: $1T (7.23% of world total)
4. Germany: $806B (5.78% of world total)
5. South Korea: $459B (3.29% of world total)
https://howmuch.net/articles/map-worlds-manufacturing-output
#118 I’m stupid
A GM I presume? Anyway there are more than one ways to buy a truck if you have cash.
Next time don’t leave it so long. You keep your tools clean, or a fool you be.
@Sail Away
did you ever consider german shorthaired pointer?
#113 Seebee “ Imagine we do none of the social distancing thing, decide the economy is too shaky to withstand a shutdown, and 5-10x the people get sick. The political fallout would be enormous”
——————-
This isn’t a binary choice, there are other options.
Self isolate the sick and elderly and let the rest of us get back to work (and get herd immunity).
Or do you want to end up waiting for a vaccine? …by which time we’ll all be living in a Mad Max movie.
Garth you sre correct questions are going to be asked. Not only are we being completely tsunamied in debt Trudeau today thru out the Emergency Powers Act treat. If I was much much younger i would………
“But that scary talk of 30-60% of the population being infected seems more absurd now that when the federal health minster causally and shockingly tossed it out.”
The incompetent Health monster should go back to making nice designs on her computer.
Is that a Coronavirus stimulus package in your pants, or are you just happy to see me…
M45BC
Mapping How Much Money Governments Are Injecting into their Countries To Fight Coronavirus.
“Just last year, the American economy was performing strong: the Dow Jones hit record highs and the U.S. unemployment hit a record 2.1%. In usual times, it would have been highly unlikely to have seen the country’s largest-ever stimulus package just a year later. But, the coronavirus has brought entirely unique circumstances to the world economy, and the U.S., along with other countries, has responded with massive economic programs.”
The Five G20 Countries with the Largest Coronavirus Stimulus Programs.
1. United States: $2.3 trillion (11% of GDP)
2. Germany: $189.3 billion (4.9% of GDP)
3. China: $169.7 billion (1.2% of GDP)
4. Canada: $145.4 billion (8.4% of GDP)
5. Australia: $133.5 billion (9.7% of GDP)
https://howmuch.net/articles/worlds-economic-programs-against-coronavirus
#28 Jay on 04.09.20 at 4:31 pm
The young are being asked to sacrifice the prime years of their lives, sacrifice opportunity, freedom, social interaction, right to make a living, just so that the old might live a few more years.
Sheesh… you must be part of the “instant gratification” and “I want it now” crowd. It has been what, about a month, that we are hunkered down?
And you are (over)reacting as if this was gonna last for YEARS. Bwaaaaa, “sacrificing the prime years of their lives…” you’re gonna sacrifice at most a few MONTHS.
Patience is a virtue. Yeah, “old values”, like saving for a rainy day, living within your means, saving for what you want, etc. That stuff is all outdated now ’cause the world and human history started in year 2000. Right? Right?
By the way, while there are no good solutions, I do think there are really only two that are sensible. There is what Sweden is trying – keep the vulnerable at home while businesses remain open and you try to build up “herd immunity” in the population. Once you have at least 60% who have had the disease (assuming it confers immunity) then you can reopen fully because the chance of community transmission is low. Or you can do what China did and NZ is trying, which is a strict lock-down to eliminate the virus from the community altogether. This strategy will mean travel restrictions for a long time until a good treatment or a vaccine is available, but it will allow businesses to reopen if successful. Halfway measures where the virus continues to spread while businesses fail seem the worst of both worlds to me.
DELETED
>I read about an Ontario study coming up with similar conclusions, today or yesterday. This one came out about two weeks ago. I was busy.
—
On-again, off-again looks to be best social-distancing option
Chan School coronavirus analysis finds strategy would prevent overwhelming hospitals while building immunity
BY
Alvin Powell
Harvard Staff Writer
DATE
March 27, 2020
With global coronavirus cases heading toward half a million, Harvard infectious disease experts said recent modeling shows that — absent the development of a vaccine or other intervention — a staggered pattern of social distancing would save more lives than a one-and-done strategy and avoid overwhelming hospitals while allowing immunity to build in the population.
The work, conducted by researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and led by Yonatan Grad, the Melvin J. and Geraldine L. Glimcher Assistant Professor of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, and Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology, also shows that if strict social distancing such as that imposed in China — which cuts transmission by 60 percent — is relaxed, it results in epidemic peaks in the fall and winter similar in size and with similar impacts on the health care system as those in an uncontrolled epidemic.
“We looked at how it would affect the thing that matters most — overwhelming the critical-care unit,” Grad said.
The problem, the researchers said, is that while strict social distancing may appear to be the most effective strategy, little population-level immunity is developed to a virus that is very likely to come around again….
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/how-to-prevent-overwhelming-hospitals-and-build-immunity/
How on earth are young people who have mortgages up the ying yang going to ever get out from under their debt?
I smell revolution coming and I am an old geezer.
>”…necrotizing lung…”
—
What it feels like to survive COVID-19’s dreaded “cytokine storm”
A doctor and coronavirus patient in recovery describes his experience surviving COVID-19’s worst side effect
KEITH A. SPENCER
APRIL 5, 2020 11:30PM (UTC)
…Such is the case of Jonathan Raskin, a 69-year-old pulmonologist who practices medicine in New York City, and who contracted coronavirus a few weeks ago and is currently in recovery. After self-isolating at home, Dr. Raskin’s temperature swelled to 102.8°; he spent several days in the hospital in a very bad state (by his own admission) before slowly recovering. As a pulmonologist, Dr. Raskin’s insights into what was happening to his own body are particularly keen, as he had a medical understanding of what was happening as it happened to him.
Dr. Raskin was kind enough to be interviewed about recovering from COVID-19 over the phone, from the comfort of his apartment in Manhattan where he continues to recover and is now in better health….
https://www.salon.com/2020/04/05/what-it-feels-like-to-survive-covid-19s-dreaded-cytokine-storm/
“The most significant individual economic acts in Canada’s history, and the greatest level of expenditures ever seen, just kinda happened. Because of a virus that has so far taken 462 lives. This compares with 8,511 deaths last year from the flu. And we shut nothing then.”
—
There is another more cynister reason – but if I utter it here, I will be marginalize as a CT-ist and probably banned.
For now, we’ll let the ‘innocent’ version above stand. People can make up their own minds – well, some of them can!
G
#131 NoName on 04.09.20 at 7:33 pm
@Sail Away
did you ever consider german shorthaired pointer?
——————-
Yep. GSPs are great bird dogs with endless energy. If I hunted every day of the year, they would be a front runner. The Germans breed wonderful bird dogs: GSP, Wirehaired Pointer, Munsterlander (large and small), Griffon, Weimeraner…
Flop’s Corona Virus Song Of The Day.
(Seems like half the country is on lockdown)
George Michael.
Freedom…
M45BC
A snippet.
All we have to do now
Is take these lies and make them true somehow
All we have to see
Is that I don’t belong to you
And you don’t belong to me yeah, yeah
Freedom (I won’t let you down)
Freedom (I’ll not give you up)
Freedom (gotta have some faith in the sound)
You’ve gotta give for what you take
Freedom (I won’t let you down)
Freedom (so please don’t give me up)
Freedom (’cause I would really)
You’ve gotta give for what you take
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=diYAc7gB-0A
Hoping with the travel rout, that the Vegas casinos bring back the Blackjack pays 3:2 instead of this 6:5 B.S. They were getting way to bold with the odds. Had to stick with craps exclusively for a reasonable bet.
It is a scary situation out there brought on by the most incompetent government we have had ever had in history. So much warning, so lack of preparedness; why, not to hurt peoples feelings. Now many peoples feelings are hurt.
I have noticed the mood of the populace in my hometown in the past week going from bad to worst. Another four weeks of this and goodluck Trudeau! Here is a suggestion; hire the best of the best whatever race they come from. Your current group could not claw there way out of a wet paper bag!
I very much hope people remember this fiasco at the next election! Screw it; I am having another drink!
@#125 BrianT on 04.09.20 at 7:13 pm
I know this is very scary to many people to even contemplate but a logical person looking at this fiasco objectively has to at least consider the possibility that the crushing of the small business and non government/non big business sector was the goal of this thing and not an unwanted side effect.
________________
bwahahaha, conspiracy theory nonsense.
#54 CEW9 on 04.09.20 at 5:17 pm
I lost my job a month ago. Wife has been given notice, last day is a few weeks. We live in a region that now has (according to news reports) an 85% unemployment rate. Eighty-five percent. Let that sink in.
CERB &EI don’t cover expenses, but they help. As a household we are now deficit situation, which we can weather for a while, mostly because of heeding financial advice from places like this.
I fear my region has a long way to go before we get to recovery mode.
————————————————–
I’m so sorry mate. I truly pray things will get better for you and your region.
85% unemployment? Careful releasing that info or the Dow and S&P will climb 50% in 1 week. After all, 20 million lost jobs throughout the continent in the past 2 weeks has the markets rockin and rollin like it’s the roaring 20’s.
Makes absolutely no sense, forward thinking, whatever. I piled some serious cash in 3 weeks ago hoping for a long grind toward some better numbers but never dreamed the markets could be this delusional. Manipulation and dissident behavior that even has everyone at Squakbox bewildered and confused. Beware of the biggest and most illogical sucker rally ever.
#131 bob on 04.09.20 at 7:28 pm
Garth,
The 30-60% infection was based on the do nothing scenario. The very low numbers of death (so far!) is a result of social distancing efforts.
While you might not intend to diminish virus impact, you are in fact do just that by misleading people:
e.g.:
do nothing 30-60% infection –> 300K deaths
do what we do now ~10% infection –> 3000 deaths.
We’re killing the economy to PREVENT 300K deaths.
I don’t understand why you keep on mixing the two up.
Where did I say ‘do nothing’? Extreme statements suggest weak arguments. Of course we should mitigate, but with common sense. Far fewer deaths and not 4 million on pogey. – Garth
—————————————————————
Garth, please explain how fewer deaths than what we have had and less economic support from the Gov’t would have been achieved.
Furthermore, if a significant portion of your readers find your statements misleading or incorrect or sometimes even callous, maybe you need to work on clarifying your writing? Or consider that you are dog whistling to your base — a page straight out of the Trumpian playbook.
That was telling. – Garth
Went to TD this morning to deposit a cheque. They have recently installed a machine outside and still have the one in the entry as well. There was a young woman at the machine, an older lady next and then me. We waited for at least 10 minutes while this person tried out many different cards. I finally asked the fellow guarding the door if we could use the machine inside and he told us to come in. Don’t know if she ever got any cash out but this may be an example of things to come. Tapped out.
#106 Rico on 04.09.20 at 6:28 pm
#107 Andrew on 04.09.20 at 6:28 pm
Well at least a few people understand our collective predicament!
The ONE thing that should have benn done much, much earlier, was to close the border to everyone and quarantine travelers. Had this been done at the right time, we would likely not have needed to shut down our economy. The cost would have been much cheaper too. Blame goes entirely to T2 and his ideological views.
Elsewhere, blame goes entirely to the corrupt WHO. They absolutely failed to declare a pandemic at the proper time. Why? 1- China, and 2- this: https://www.mintpressnews.com/wall-street-behind-delay-declaring-coronavirus-outbreak-pandemic-bonds/265264/
Faron: CO2 emissions are going to be way down this year. Unfortunately at a major cost
from the City of Ottawa Overview of Climate Change Master Plan
“limiting warming to 1.5℃ is possible with rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society”
The good news is CO2 emissions are way down because of rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society. The bad news is the cost is unacceptable. Impossible. A realistic goal would be to keep CO2 emissions where they are – and I mean where they were a year ago.
but here’s hoping that low oil prices combined with the stimulus/quantitative easing go a long way to helping us switch to renewables. Alberta, you have a lot of wide open and windy prairie space. A billion spent on a pipeline for crappy bitumen sold at a $25 discount was money badly spent.
“hoping that low oil prices go a long way to helping us switch to renewables” What? People are going to use less oil because prices are lower? Tell that to Justin Trudeau who imposed the carbon tax to make it more expensive.
how about “hoping that the stimulus/quantitative easing go a long way to helping us switch to renewables.” What? The stimulus is going to people to buy food – how are they going to switch to renewables?
“Alberta, you have a lot of wide open and windy prairie space.” The implication is they can set up massive wind farms to produce electricity which they can export over North America. Hogwash.
“A billion spent on a pipeline for crappy bitumen sold at a $25 discount was money badly spent.” It’s not spent. The Canadian Government needs to invest in pipelines and refineries to ensure Ontario has a reliable source of petro chemicals. Which it needs.
#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.20 at 7
@#124 Flop
“Is it safe to do a gift card joke yet…”
&&&&&&
Sure. Go for it.
What could be wrong with it?
Trust me.
////////////////////////
You’re asking me to trust a guy who farts in elevators?
I smell your odour and a set up.
Here’s what I submitted last night and never made it on the blog.
Hopefully 24 hours later Garth is feeling a little more jovial…
M45BC
———————————————-
Did you hear about the guy from Lunenburg who bought his wife a $500 gift card and they went bust?
No?
Me neither, don’t want to know anything about it either if it gets me BANNED…
M45BC
@Millenials. Newly Schooled.
So kids, how do you like the lines at LCBO, the grocery stores, and what ever else is open.
That’s Socialism. Be careful of what you dream about.
…..
Hey Dogs thanks for the links re other treatment.
the scary part is the country doesn’t have any leaders to steer the ship. They’re all cowards heading for the exits letting “Dr Tam” call the shots for the country. Yes, an un-elected bureaucrat with a different perspective than what politicians should have.
And, to add, Hadju should resign. Anyone with half a brain knew she was being a drama queen when she spewed someone else’s words. What she did was not only unprofessional, but the work of an amateur.
Retirement crises on the horizon. Many jobs are not coming back and thousands will be given packages to leave.
What’s ahead is the long road of retirement with many still saddled with heaps of debt. With interest rates in the ditch how are the indebted expected to pay down what’s owed and still have extra to live off of? Love it or hate it, the market is the only place turn to for that extra income.
Well it’s been a real nice bump up this past two weeks.
Had to take some profits today as some stocks up 20-35 %.
Bye bye stocks ….. hello cash
Maybe crazy maybe not!
Patience is a virtue
I actually made some money on gold.
Whoa!
Professor Knut Wittkowski shares his thoughts on Covid-19 pandemic.
“Perspectives on the Pandemic Episode 2:
Professor Knut Wittkowski, for twenty years head of The Rockefeller University’s Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design, says that social distancing and lockdown is the absolutely worst way to deal with an airborne respiratory virus.
Further, he offers data to show that China and South Korea had already reached their peak number of cases when they instituted their containment measures. In other words, nature had already achieved, or nearly achieved, herd immunity.”
https://youtu.be/lGC5sGdz4kg
10M bbls coming off the market. Hope you filled up last week.- Not 1st
See if it does anything. They really needed to cut 35 m.
Doesn’t it seem like a lifetime ago that the same people who are now saying the all mighty virus can wipe out all civilization were saying that the all mighty global warming-oh sorry climate change-was going to wipe out all civilization? Bummer-all the billions and trillions we were going to spend saving humanity from the scary climate change just got spent on the scary Plandemic. Maybe this means we got lucky and the big boys will forego charging us the billions and trillions they were going to take out of our hides for Climate Change.
I’m with you Garth on this one. I think we will look back on this sometime in the (near I hope) future and see this for the temporary mass insanity that it is. I have to wonder if this has all been orchestrated for some other purpose. But probably not. Occam’s razor and all that. But the price we will have to pay…. the hangover we will wake up with. That is going to be something to behold.
It didn’t have to be this way. The people in charge should be criminally liable for the millions of jobs and the debt load to fund all of the emergency hand-outs.
Taiwan, next door to Wuhan, shut down their borders almost instantly, tested and isolated infections, and ended up with a handful of deaths, without even shutting down public schools or the broader economy.
South Korea had an inventory of testing kits and this proved the most robust response to a new mutation. This lesson was learned after their 2009 brush with the Chinese swine flu.
Where are the Canadian lessons? Does this nation even have an institutional memory that goes beyond the 4-year election cycle?
The photo is heart-breaking.
Children should be playing with children, outside/inside, at school, climbing trees, playing soccer and baseball, catching frogs in ponds.
Even when kids are fighting, they’re learning.
My daughter now regrets having only one child…he’s a lonely little guy.
#155 45north on 04.09.20 at 8:15 pm
but here’s hoping that low oil prices combined with the stimulus/quantitative easing go a long way to helping us switch to renewables. Alberta, you have a lot of wide open and windy prairie space. A billion spent on a pipeline for crappy bitumen sold at a $25 discount was money badly spent.
——————–
Alberta won’t ever export wind energy because it isn’t near markets.
And you can’t make asphalt or plastic out of wind. At least not yet.
Oh good, Galen’s on the case too. If someone is standing too close to you in the checkout line, just email “[email protected] with ‘Social Distancing’ in the subject line” and it will be looked into.
According to the Buffet Indicator the stock market is significantly overvalued. Thats without even taking into account the the USA now has 10% unemployment.
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
Watch 28 days later. Better still, 28 weeks later. This pandemic isn’t over yet.
Lets play out with AC/DC, Rush and the Rolling Stones at the Toronto SARS concert. 500,000 people attended.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ewqtu9wHdFg
So far roughly 0.0007% of Canadians have been infected !
Great post Garth, thank you.
Bought some more of those stinking preferred’s I hate so much lol. $7 somthing.
Still have ZERO cases in my retirement home, so very proud of my frontline peeps tirelessly dogging it to keep the “cootie” out of our “home”.
As far as the “moist talkers”, it’s about time someone spoke up about these gross people who have always kept us at bay to be polite and not call it out. Moist talkers adjective is an understatement. Ugh. Sorry if you were offended by it, so I guess you must be one of “them”
“It’s worth noting, by the way, the emergency order shutting my neighborhood men’s wear store – like all the provincial, municipal and national dictates that have trashed the economy and cost a million families their livelihood – was not voted on. No provincial legislatures approved them. The House of Commons is not sitting. Opposition leaders are self-gelded. The most significant individual economic acts in Canada’s history, and the greatest level of expenditures ever seen, just kinda happened. Because of a virus that has so far taken 462 lives. This compares with 8,511 deaths last year from the flu. And we shut nothing then.”
__________________________________________
Given the situation described above, how can we say the government has acted nobly in all this? And today the PM declared that things will not be back to “fully normal” until there is a vaccine available. In other words, forced vaccinations are on the horizon. Many of us had lost faith and trust in government even before corona-gate hit. What is this going to do to peoples’ already elevated stress level?
Of course dictates have been handed down to governments by the ruling elite. That is why nothing has been voted on. No mystery there. Don’t be naïve thinking national governments are at the top of the power hierarchy on this planet. National leaders are merely puppets. Even the sleepiest among us realize this now.
What gives certain ones the right to speak for everyone under the pretense of a noble act? Beware those who say that we should be willing to make sacrifices (rights, liberties, financial strain) if it means we can save even one life. You can be rest assured that people spouting such nonsense would never give up anything for themselves. On the contrary the peoples’ loss is always their gain. Beware the wolves in sheep clothing.
Heir Trudeau still trying to get the emergencies act forced through.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/emergencies-act-province-letter-1.5526496
Garth was wondering for years why people never had savings, or investments or an emergency fund. Now he knows why. The majority of people have given themselves over totally to the govt. That’s their plan A, B and C and individual rights be damned.
#54 CEW9
……..85% unemployment…….
last time I saw that # it was for Banff, Fairmont Banff Springs closing their doors tomorrow at noon, unemployment 90% now!!
Alot of danger and rik still out there.
The whole flattening the curve, argument, fails to take into account what happens after people emerge from hibernation and startgetting infected again. The virus has not gone anywhere. And what about 2nd wave outbreaks, or even new viruses emerging b4 this one has run its course.
But more importantly, it seems the world has totally lost focus on the thousand of other diseases plaguing mankind which will continue to do so. Malaria, yellow fever, dengue, ebola, lupus, cancers or all sorts, etc, etc.
Will not mention the possibility of natural disasters such as earthquakes, flooding, hurricanes, etc as that might be perceived as being too negative.
Garth is right.
What will happen next, after the ‘curve is flattened’, is ‘Phase Two’.
Millions of those who have been isolating come back out and catch it. Then rinse, repeat.
This will probably kill 1-2 million in Canada alone as a result.
And the economy will never be close to the same. The spillover effects, poverty, disease, etc…will probably take out another 2-5 million over the next decade in Canada.
Not a smart response.
#138 Flop…,
have a look at the Federal Reserve Board press release, especially the enclosed Term Sheets, and tell us how much of that putative 2.3 trillion stimulus package has anything to do with “the coronavirus pandemic”.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200409a.htm
#70 Penny Henny on 04.09.20 at 5:42 pm
You got a problem with someone making money?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/rapid-blood-test-await-approval-in-canada-1.5518485
‘With new research suggesting there could be a substantial number of people infected without showing any symptoms, experts are increasingly recommending the use of population-wide rapid blood tests as an important tool in the process of returning to normal.’
“The rapid blood (serology) tests are already being used in Europe, Asia, Australia and the U.S.
But so far none of those tests has been approved for use in Canada.
One company, BTNX Inc., in Markham, Ont., is shipping thousands of rapid tests to hospitals in the U.S. “
#118 I’m stupid on 04.09.20 at 7:00 pm
Rent one for the month… It’s a 100% deductible work expense. This is all temporary mate…
Sorry Garth, chatty but it’s really that I’m a tough time getting over the Labour Force Survey (LFS) numbers. 1 MM lives wrecked last month by C19. Hard to wrap a person’s mind around let alone accept.
One thing I will say, and GOOD on StatCan, there was virtually NO DIFFERENCE between the LFS “Seasonally Adjusted” and “Unadjusted” numbers.
They used a 3-month moving average to smooth the data out which to me, is sensible.
Reading “The Daily” LFS page:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200409/dq200409a-eng.htm
I came across this:
“…1998 Ice Storm”
and thought What on God’s Green… but after reading the paragraph I realized that StatCan was trying to say that they do have experience with events not originated by man that greatly disrupt the labour market (further to my “there has never been a season like this” Comment the other day).
I enjoyed the honesty and most of all that FOR ONCE the “Seasonally Adjusted” data is about the same as the Actual or “Unadjusted” data. Nice, believable.
Again, GOOD ON YOU StatCan.
And I can’t imagine it must have been easy looking at the numbers after you compiled them, you must have been choked and swallowed hard just like the rest of us did today.
#151 Mr. Market? on 04.09.20 at 8:11 pm
“…but never dreamed the markets could be this delusional.”
Remember the saying: “the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.
The last figure I saw was 504 Canadians have died because of this virus. That figure may seem small compared to a population of about 34 million, but keep in mind that 1) it’s not over yet and many more will die, and 2) the death toll would be higher now and going forward if we did nothing to try and control this virus.
Wherever you live, you’ve noticed a decrease in traffic by now. I sure have, a weekday afternoon lately looks more like a Sunday morning. I bet Easter Sunday will be quiet like on one of those apocalyptic end of the world movies. Is there an upside to this decreased traffic? My guess is as many lives will be saved by reduced traffic deaths as there are saved from controlling COVID 19.
#79 Slim on 04.09.20 at 5:51 pm
With the more than likely re-election of Trump, it will be full steam ahead. Especially, if this goes till November. Citizens will have had with sheltering in place by then, too. Trump is not known to be a patient man.
……..
Really….a “more than likely re-election of Trump”?? Please make sure you are back to comment the day after the election.
Let’s face it folks, nobody has any good answers right now.
Garth’s advice is probably the best we can do for now, hold the course. Will it turn out to be correct? But as has been famously said in the past, “If you don’t know where you are going, you’ll probably end up somewhere else.”
Or alternatively, “Things are very hard to predict, especially the future.”
garth, are you concerned at all with the size of the Fed balance sheet? They are buying bond etfs to save the sector from collpase and high yield.
its there any risk in them buynig actual stocks
thnk you
Would you say Covid-19 is a communist disease or capitalist disease? :-)
Please, get past the communist China Virus / Wuhan Virus origin.
Clearly it’s communist, right?
– Capitalism is suspended.
– Everyone gets a government handout
– People are snitching on each other
– Soon – rations!
– Shortages already here – the toilet paper one was so communist!
– No freedom of movement
…strangely though, I have a feeling that any Communist country worth it’s salt, would let the old and the weak go. And actually yes, to free up housing inventory or those waiting for allocation…probably.
I hope we are beginning a rational discussion soon.
Here in the valley unemployment is running at 85% while the wealthy 2nd homeowners and people who can afford vacation rentals have overrun the town and locals are griping…. 1 hr lineups to get into the grocery store have just come into effect, and the local hardware store purchases now are a dance of physical distancing – which increases my overhead as I have to take time out of working to get supplies.
Can’t blame people for wanting to get out of the cities – with their population density but the whole dichotomy of rich vs working poor is very evident here.
Never seen so many people and dogs who I have never seen before – the dogs look happy.
We prepare for this virus to overwhelm our hospitals – so my friend’s cancer treatment was cancelled… Friends with restaurants and businesses that made this place so alive are shuttered… it has been decided – the virus is more important… triage is heartless.
Guess we will see if the cure is worse than the potential illness. I suspect it is.
2-3 weeks in and people are on the local radio crying about needing money…. and how they can’t get thru to the govt funds… hard lessons.
Financially – people are a disaster…
I still carry the wallet I bought at that store in Lunenburg Garth…
I remember very well when the local bakery had to move off of main street in my town 20 yrs ago – too expensive in the booming resort town they said… and then slowly the main street morphed… to the current flotilla of resort town businesses… they are – mostly – all now closed.
People need to seriously start talking about community resilience … or we will lose them.
3 weeks in and 85% unemployment —
if you pray – pray.
Be well.
#187 Hookshott on 04.09.20 at 10:13 pm
#79 Slim on 04.09.20 at 5:51 pm
With the more than likely re-election of Trump, it will be full steam ahead. Especially, if this goes till November. Citizens will have had with sheltering in place by then, too. Trump is not known to be a patient man.
……..
Really….a “more than likely re-election of Trump”?? Please make sure you are back to comment the day after the election.
I wouldn’t be surprised, the Bernie bros are going to punish the dems once again.
Gee all these scary posts and nobody has mentioned knowing someone seriously affected or blunted (all the way) by this virus.
But how many of you know a laid-off person? I know 2. Not including the dozens of businesses – now shuttered – that I frequented. 1000s of people
My point, some numbers are real, some are not.
Cue the my-cousin’s-aunt’s-stepson-was-hit-hard-how-dare-you crew so prevalent on many forums?
I’m glad I held off on that car purchase this year. I am curious how the government and industry think they can get the economy going after this is done. When people go back to work they will be trying to pay off the debts that they accrued during the shutdown, and most will be at a higher rate because the feds did not think about mandating lowered credit card rates to give people the opportunity to save some cashflow. I will be interested to see consumer debt to income ratio when we come out of this.
#187 Hookshott
If the Dems carry forward with Biden, a Trump re-election is all but a certainty. By November Biden is likely to be in an old age home. His mind is going.
Many people do not like Trump at all, but there is no doubt he is still quick on his feet and all there mentally.
And remember folks, being an a-hole does not disqualify you for anything so long as you get the job done. Oh I have worked for and with so many a-holes over the years to know this is one of the rules of life.
For everyone thinking this is temporary, you should first answer the question “was the response in any way commensurate with the threat” if your answer is to the posed question is no, the answer is no.
There are some very serious issues that the relatively used to be free world needs to resolve ASAP and those questions are not even on the table thanks to the virus porn.
I’m glad we have legislation like Alberta’s Emergency Management Act and the Public Health Act so that with declarations of a state of emergency give decision making powers to those who know something (like Dr. Deena in AB) and out of the hands of the dimwits we elect.
Fiscal, monetary and relief $moolah matters remain in the hands of the dimwits.
We can deal with that at the polls.
(and keep conservative politicians on the sidelines forevah – had to get that shot in).
Best wishes Canucks. Keep a hockey stick distance between you and others. Zdeno Chara length.
WUL
Garth, you should be careful to feel you have mastered
this virus! Sometimes wishing you were out is better than wishing you were in! Remember, you have Justin
at the controls! This is the idiot who claimed the budget
will balance itself…..
Population Canada 37.5 million
Pandemic cases 20,000
Dead 509
We are approaching peak cases
I don’t care if 30 percent of the people got this and have no symptoms
Unemployed over one million and 4 million applied for emergency funding
Now our fearless leader says maybe 12,000 will die and this will go on for many months and no travelling for a year.
Sorry WTF how do we go from 500 to 12,000 dead
China has restarted, and Europe is talking about restarting and the US wants to restart
But noooooo Canada says many months
Let’s hope the Tories stand up to Trudeau.
There has to be a better way.
On another note
My portfolio is now within 1,000 of what it was.
I feel very sorry for all the businesses that went under, but you know what they were probably on thin ice anyway.
Remember those 40 percent of Canadians living paycheque to paycheque, you get my point.
I forgot who said it but never bail out companies failures are good for the economy as new and better business will survive and thrive
As I said yesterday a pillow manufacturer in Vancouver was going under and he bought a medical mask making machine and restarted his business and hired back all his employees.
Enterprise is alive to those willing to move forward and take risks.
SCREW THE ECONOMY!!
It’s ALL a big PONZI scheme anyhow.
Debt used to create more debt to pay for more debt so we can all keep using more debt to buy the fake trophies made from debt.
Interesting documentary.
Does this answer where Corona originated?
https://youtu.be/3bXWGxhd7ic
Jumped to this point skipping other posts so if someone else already made made this point Oh well.
If this is all a ruse well it sure fooled most of the world.
I have money for to invest if you prove your point in the end.
If so splains the market Lucy.
https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101?fbclid=IwAR1z5mrK7lk2X3NTKJQf7lOoBWUaApVV3sHAKHePgpRH5BuPqcafbu2dYb4
Another report highlighting the extremely concerning susceptibility that humans have to this virus has been released. Researchers in Seoul have found several cases wherein patients who’ve recovered from COVID-19 have seen the disease “reactivate”, possibly because the virus was still lying dormant inside them, and had been reawakened, somehow.
There’s a growing body of evidence to suggest that many people just can’t build up an immunity to this drug doesn’t bode well for prospects of a universally effective vaccine.
‘Dynamic’ physical distancing could help balance COVID-19 fight, economy: study
BY LIAM CASEY, THE CANADIAN PRESS
Posted Apr 9, 2020 6:47 am PDT Last Updated Apr 9, 2020 at 6:50 am PDT
Dialing physical distancing measures up and down could be a way of sustaining the long-term fight against COVID-19 while not crushing the economy, a new study from Ontario researchers suggests.
The scientists from the University of Toronto and the University of Guelph used mathematical modelling to predict the course of the disease in Ontario….
https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/04/09/dynamic-physical-distancing-could-help-balance-covid-19-fight-economy-study/
182 Herb on 04.09.20 at 9:50 pm
#138 Flop…,
2.3 trillion stimulus package has anything to do with “the coronavirus pandemic”.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200409a.htm
———————————–
A lot of the fed’s actions are to fund loans. In the financial crisis, the troubled asset relief program that took bad loans off of bank’s books actually netted the fed a profit. Many of the loans this time around will not end in default and may lead to some profit to the Fed. The fed is the only entity that can backstop banks to this extent. If we are lucky, this will help bridge the coronavirus gap in the economy. It may not in which case run for the hills.
“Where’s the justice in that?”. No one ever said life was fair.
Still, I have no sympathy for those that might find themselves in such a predicament IF they voted for the current Blunder Boy regime. Just look at Sweden. Yes, it could have been different had you not voted for a follower instead of a leader. Life lessons can be tough.
The best time to panic, that is, overreact to a potential pandemic is shortly after a novel pathogen has been detected. So say famed student of risk, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan, and his colleagues. Of course, at that point, by definition few people have the virus and therefore it does not seem like a threat to the whole community.
…problems which start out small, but have the potential to create systemic ruin, MUST be solved when they are small. Waiting to see if such problems become large is courting the very systemic ruin we seek to avoid. The current result of letting coronavirus infections get out of control is a breakdown in the normal functioning of society for at least a number of months if not more than a year, and we get a snap economic depression to go along with it.
The lesson is quite clear. We must practice the precautionary principle whenever we are faced with problems that have the potential to cause systemic ruin.
So, in order to contain such potential pandemics in the future, we will have to “overreact” and panic early. That could force us to do that right thing—even though the right thing seems way out of proportion to the risk—in order to prevent a colossal problem that is many orders of magnitude worse that the inconvenience and economic loss associated with the early preventative steps we take.
resilience.org/stories/2020-03-29/overreacting-to-coronavirus-the-perverse-logic-of-panic-during-a-potential-pandemic/
#187 Hookshott on 04.09.20 at 10:13 pm
#79 Slim on 04.09.20 at 5:51 pm
With the more than likely re-election of Trump, it will be full steam ahead. Especially, if this goes till November. Citizens will have had with sheltering in place by then, too. Trump is not known to be a patient man.
……..
Really….a “more than likely re-election of Trump”?? Please make sure you are back to comment the day after the election.
…..
I wouldn’t be surprised, the Bernie bros are going to punish the dems once again.
……
Bernie supporters will not vote for Trump!
…………..
#197 Nonplused on 04.09.20 at 10:42 pm
#187 Hookshott
If the Dems carry forward with Biden, a Trump re-election is all but a certainty. By November Biden is likely to be in an old age home. His mind is going.
Many people do not like Trump at all, but there is no doubt he is still quick on his feet and all there mentally.
And remember folks, being an a-hole does not disqualify you for anything so long as you get the job done. Oh I have worked for and with so many a-holes over the years to know this is one of the rules of life.
……..
“all but a certainty”…again, check in the day after the election.
Trump is still “quick on his feet and all there mentally”….that is what we witness with all his inane comments like opening up the US for business after Easter (since changed after some of the back room boys finally got to him)…..but not a good example of being quick on his feet and all there mentally!
something to chew on:
“The coronavirus may be “reactivating” in people who have been cured of the illness, according to Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said.”
“Spain is moving to establish permanent basic income in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic”
Interesting
—
Professional gamblers would normally not be allowed to file for unemployment insurance benefits in Nevada, but circumstances have changed amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
These workers may qualify as independent contractors or self-employed “during this unprecedented time and under the CARES Act,” said Rosa Mendez, a spokeswoman for the Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation.
Professional poker player Chris Konvalinka told the Review-Journal last month that he was considering filing for unemployment benefits.
“We’ll see. I’m going to give it a shot,” he said. “It seems like a free roll to me. Worst case, they say no.”
For 2019, Nevada had a total of 119,232 weekly initial claims. In the past three weeks alone, 170,596 initial claims have been filed, according to a Friday statement from DETR.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/professional-gamblers-qualify-for-nevada-unemployment-amid-crisis-2001863/
This week’s issue of The Economist in the Graphic Detail section makes an interesting statistical observation about measuring covid-19. You might on to something Garth.
It starts to wind down, after there are sufficient Masks, PPE, and Ventilators, to stop any future mass infections, and give the Health Care workers, as reasonable chance statistically. Then the move to allow a restart.
Sadly the state of Finances in Canada, on a Business and Personal basis, will result is a major set back to the Economy, and will impact negatively employment, and housing. It is the Housing market that will forecast the extent of the short term damage. The Young, and Lower incomes destined for a Service Sector job, as ruled by Governement, will pay the biggest price. Ironically these same younger voters, will support their propensity for more Government, and exacerbate the problem…. Many Analysts, suggesting this is not a Structural recession…. In my view, all the Market incentives, NIRP and now ZIRP, and Buying Bonds, QE, etc. , to save the Credit market are infact Structural Deficiencies.
im looking for a boom and bust youtube animation video someone posted in comments a while back.. it was from some European source had animation and divided into seperate parts?
Here is the thing about the current number of dead: you can’t run the other experiment simultaneously. You have no control to compare to. Any thought on what would be happening if business usual is speculative. A history not taken.
#37 nb on 04.09.20 at 4:43 pm
The whole reason is hasn’t gotten terrible here is because we shut things down and have stayed inside. There are numerous examples what has happened to the places that didn’t do that quickly enough.
*************
Indeed. Had we done nothing and the infection rate was massive along with deaths, people on this blog would have complained of ‘incompetent government.’ Yet governments world-wide take decisive action using the best modelling and learning from the situation on the ground in other countries and we avert the worst. And then these same people complain that the current infection rate and death count is insignificant and doesn’t justify the intervention.
#157 45north on 04.09.20 at 8:15 pm
“What? People are going to use less oil because prices are lower?”
No, but if it stays low it will help kill off the tar sands and US shale producers which eventually will drive prices back up and force Alberta and BC to enter the 21st century of resource realities.
“The stimulus is going to people to buy food – how are they going to switch to renewables?”
There were many stimulus programs aimed at infrastructure in the fiscal crisis. It seems safe to assume that a forward looking leadership would put the dollars toward something that will be useful now and in the future if such programs are needed to get people employed again.
“The implication is they can set up massive wind farms to produce electricity which they can export over North America.”
Uh, it’s called wire. Or, in organized form, a “grid”. BC exports electricity to the US on the regular through that crazy wire technology. Or, pipelines in the sky as I like to call them.
“It’s not spent.”
I’m talking about Alberta’s proposal to pitch in for Keystone. Maybe not spent, but who do you think lines Kenney’s pockets?
“The Canadian Government needs to invest in pipelines and refineries to ensure Ontario has a reliable source of petro chemicals. Which it needs.”
Agreed, we aren’t going to drop oil cold turkey and as a feedstock for materials it’s invaluable. But materials is only 4% of total consumption, so we don’t need that much to cover that need.
I do not believe shutting down the economy is an over reaction. Please everyone continue to isolate. Collapse is a real possibility if not. This is not the flu. Not even close.
Don’t you wish you had real leadership?
Lockdown lifted as Israel’s corona count hits around 10,000
Our politicians will beggar you, crying in their soup, sopping up every dripping spit of fat before they admit to having reacted like sissy power grabbing a- holes and idiots to the real death numbers of COVID. Its pathetic, they’re all pathetic.
Take Canada back from the globalist coup before you wind up with George Soros as your head of state.
There’s a whole lot of wishful thinking and sheer make- believe in the comments section today.
And a whole lot of armchair epidemiologists…
Two posters, #106 and #112 are the only ones who are making sense to me.
IMHO.
See:
“This virus could change the way we live for years, not months”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-virus-could-change-the-way-we-live-for-years-not-months-20200409-p54inu.html
– Steve O
I meant to say #107 Rico and #113 Smartalox
Steve.
re #195 TurnerNation on 04.09.20 at 10:40 pm
Depends on where you live…. some of our communities and industries will be hit harder than others…
It’s going to be an interesting spring/summer…. and the morphing of local economies is going to be one for the case studies…..
Right now many are still in spring break mode… posting funny mask photos and radio ads thanking front line workers…
as for who I know who has been laid off – hundreds… all ranges – my SIL project manager for airline co, nearly all tourism related folks( I live in a resort town so big outlier – hence the huge figures), construction projects are currently “on pause”, and everyone in the service industry (hair, clothing, etc) … rental folks have their hair on fire right now….
your experience may vary
but I know this — society is hiccupping.. our portfolios will recover and grow…. gonna be a bit longer than we hoped… but…
autumn is coming.
don’t be hard, don’t be naive — just be human – if you’re on firm ground – reach out to what/who you want..
if you dont want to — well — there it is…
#267 Sail away on 04.09.20 at 12:07 pm
Thanks for the inadvertent reminder.
*********
Ha! No problem, although your 8% up number after that massive APT win implies that those misses you mentioned would have me in convulsions, so I don’t feel bad about not being on that APT train.
#89 Sail away on 04.09.20 at 6:06 pm
Picked up a nice bottle of wine and takeout Vietnamese on the way home
***********
This one I’m 100% sure I’ve got you beat on: I’m eating take out 2 meals a day, and technically it’s ALL Vietnamese food.
Actually, I’m pretty stuck here- everytime I rebook my flight for a later date it gets cancelled. I should have been back in Canada 5 days from now starting work but instead I’m looking at flights for May plus 14 days of quarantine.
Just like my portfolio though, I’m learning how to roll with the punches; if it’s decided or out of my hands it’s not worth dwelling on, right?
#273 Faron on 04.09.20 at 12:49 pm
#211 SoggyShorts on 04.09.20 at 7:03 am
YTD not Inc dividends
SOGG -13.26% 100/0
VEQT -14.28% 100/0
VGRO -11.79% 80/20
VBAL -9.01% 60/40
———————————————-
Wait, VGRO and VBAL are not “all stock”, or are you just tracking these?
I’ve been dumb and pessimistic so am missing some of the upside by dipping in and out. Didn’t see the additional 2+T fed backing coming. I guess that’s why you don’t try to time the markets…
************
The equity/bond mix is next to the standings
SOGG is my personal PF of all equities in 6 index ETFs
The rest are Vanguard’s global ETFs ranging from 100 to 60% equities.
Garth and many blogdogs recommend 60/40 so I put up VBAL for comparison for them. VEQT would be my logical benchmark.
VGRO is just the middle one I out up for anyone running similar.
I’m a often a bit hard on myself though as I compare my performance with VEQT on the way up and VBAL on the way down.
I think the most disturbing thing about this whole event is that this could just be a trial run
More drama at the Manitoba Lab after the mystery of summer of 2019 with Chinese national being barred.
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5528474
What is going on in Manitoba people?
DELETED
Trudeau’s first naked power grab didn’t work so now he’s started the steps to initiating the Emergencies Act by consulting the provinces. This guy needs to go. Now.
I for one will not vote for any government on any level that supports this nonsense. This country is lost.
While this is not the flu, when you consider the costs of what this is costing, the preparing for this would have cost a lot more.
Shutting off China from the start in January by the whole world would have been successful. LOOK AT TAIWAN. Since they are next to China AND since January. Less than 400 cases!!!! Hell less than what Ontario reports in ONE DAY. Taiwan had been exposed for nearly 4, FOUR months and they are next to China. Why? Their experience with SARS and they shut off China. Canada had the same experience with SARS and we are not close to China. The Prime Minister and his gang of progressives MUST be held to account for this.
Masks, for two months I explained why this was necessary. in one day Canada’s public Health Minister does an about face on this.
WHO ( Seriously should be called WUHAN Health Overlord) was negligent and the orange top guy is right. The should have called the word PANDEMIC since the first week in February. No excuses except they did not.
When CNN calls a Pandemic before they did, it tells you all you need to know.
Our Hadju has no qualification to be where she is except for female equality. This has cost lives.
Remember the bungling of this government has COST LIVES.
How to fix this up, throw money around any which way you can.
The word needs to get out. They cost real lives.
That said, Taiwan still kept their economy going during all of this and it did not cost as many lives as us and we are far from the end.
american article but still applies to Canada as well
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/opinion/coronavirus-us-economy-inequality.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_NN_p_20200410&instance_id=17527&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=83342226§ion=topNews&segment_id=24620&te=1&user_id=50ed3079913ef388946dde0c515d32db
@#223 Steve French on 04.10.20 at 2:30 am
There’s a whole lot of wishful thinking and sheer make- believe in the comments section today.
_______________________________
haven’t you been posting your own make-belief comments recently?
@#222 Tanny McBride on 04.10.20 at 2:14 am
Don’t you wish you had real leadership?
Lockdown lifted as Israel’s corona count hits around 10,000
Our politicians will beggar you, crying in their soup, sopping up every dripping spit of fat before they admit to having reacted like sissy power grabbing a- holes and idiots to the real death numbers of COVID. Its pathetic, they’re all pathetic.
Take Canada back from the globalist coup before you wind up with George Soros as your head of state.
____________________________
oh no! george soros is back. the horror.
you need to adjust your tinfoil hat lady.
I still haven’t got a straight answer on this one-is this Plandemic scarier than the scary Climate Change or not? That Climate Change monster was terrifying-if we didn’t basically cripple all western economies (according to esteemed Mark Carney) we were toast. But now the Climate Change monster all of a sudden seems so tiny-is it my imagination or have the MSM and government totally forgot the incredible danger we are in from the Climate Change monster? I guess we don’t need the Climate Change monster anymore-he is yesterday’s news-probably within a couple years 80% of Canadians won’t even remember he ever existed-he will become just another Conspiracy Theory-he has been replaced-the Virus monster is way scarier and gets the same result we were looking for from the Climate Change monster only way quicker and way bigger. Those guys aint dumb https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRDgihVDEko
@#220 Faron on 04.10.20 at 2:05 am
#157 45north on 04.09.20 at 8:15 pm
“What? People are going to use less oil because prices are lower?”
No, but if it stays low it will help kill off the tar sands and US shale producers which eventually will drive prices back up and force Alberta and BC to enter the 21st century of resource realities.
______________________________________
unless the OPECers manage to artificially raise oil prices to previous highs, hard to get oil like tar-sand/shale is done for good.
# 218- Capt. Serious:
Here is the thing about the current number of dead: you can’t run the other experiment simultaneously. You have no control to compare to. Any thought on what would be happening if business usual is speculative. A history not taken.
************
Thanks for pointing out the lack of a control group. Been on my mind lately.
I suppose the closest you can come would be countries like South Korea, Japan, or Sweden who didn’t shut down their economies. But these countries are neither demographically or racially consistent with Canada or the USA. And we’re still only getting limited information as to which strains of SARS-CoV-2 ( COVID-19) are predominant in different areas of the world. So, poor control groups.
But watch what happens when they finally let us out of our houses on parole. The media is going to scream to the high heavens how this economic shutdown ” flattened the curve.” All without scientific basis.
But what does real science matter anyway with a pair of high level bureaucrats (Fauci and Birx) leading the pack? Fauci’s had to sink his initial mortality numbers from this virus faster than his outrageous claims sank the stock market.
And speaking of the market – This has to be one of the biggest economic heists in history. How many insiders added to their already obscene fortunes by shorting the market because they KNEW exactly when Fauci’s crazy numbers were going to come out?
Follow the money, people. Follow the money.
Never let a crisis go to waste! Big Bloated Government will always grow – until all hell breaks loose. Once inflation picks up as a result of all this Free Money, interest rates & gold spike up, and bonds & stocks crash as a result then the Central Bank jig will be up. When will that happen? Some have said this widely discussed scenario will never happen. They also said the widely discussed scenario of a pandemic would never happen…
TAIWAN population of approx 24 million.
400 cases after 4 months. Ontario is reporting more than 400 per DAY.
Taiwan is exposing the farce of what the WHO is in plain sight and is also embarassing China with what they achieved.
There is excuse for Canada. Why?, we went through the SARS experience as they did. The difference is that they put capable people in ministerial positions because they understand it is a job with real responsibility and not a virtue signalling opportunity.
Why did we have to follow the average/WHO, why could Canada not cut a similar trail like Taiwan and say, I’m going after this because we understand what we face.
Wait did our provincial people not tell us that we were ready BECAUSE we had the SARS experience. From the SARS experience, did we not know we needed N95 masks for the frontline? Doug Ford needs to address why our hospitals did not prepare even though they said they were ready.
Right now, we are transfixed and deflected by what is happening but we need to look back and think why did it happen…..to learn once again.
MEDIOCRITY by following the masses supported by social media herding.
#50 Stone
Do you think these same people will learn from this experience and make better choices. A few will but the majority will not.
——————————————————————–
I have a nephew who lives like a hermit in a basement apartment, and collects pogey while playing on social media all day and espousing his idiotically misguided social justice warrior opinions.
Then the crisis happened.
He now lives like a hermit in a basement apartment, and collects pogey while playing on social media all day and espousing his idiotically misguided social justice warrior opinions.
Crisis? What crisis?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_Xz2q40ijA
Hey Garth,
Long time reader, first time poster. Thank you for all of the financial advice over the years – really appreciate it!
I’m concerned with the numbers you are sharing regarding covid-19 deaths vs seasonal flu deaths. Yes more people have died from the flu every year, but the only reason why more have not died from covid-19 IS because of the social distancing and quarantine measures put in place by the government. The current death/infected rate for Covid-19 varies per country, from around 1% in USA to 10% in Italy. Even taking the lowest figure, 1%, death rate is still 10x worse than the flu, in the best case scenario. Studies are also showing 1 person with covid-19 can infect more people than 1 person with the seasonal flu can.
The issue is the intelligent management of pandemic risk. We all know C19 requires social distancing, hand-washing and common sense. But turning off the entire economy is negatively affecting people in a profound way. I’m assuming you do not have a business which is about to fail? – Garth
Spot-on today!
#105 Theologian
As Adam and Eve learned when they ate the wrong apples, you don’t mess with some things.
——————————————————————–
Now is not the time for childish fables from fictitious publications.
The fed and treasury are in bed together now, eating junk bonds and every other substance responsible for heart attacks.
They are a meatloaf factory.
I’m off to service my essential business.
It’s essential to me, because it’s the only one I’ve got.
I will not get double time, just time served…
M45BC
BANNED
#171 Nonplused on 04.09.20 at 8:59 pm (Snickering), they can make bitcoins with it.
Niagara region home sales numbers for March
YoY
Listings down- 7.3%
sales down- 9.6%
prices up- 11.1%
days on market down- 41 to 37
Very interesting that new listings are coming to market every day
https://www.niagararealtor.ca/sites/default/files/March%202020%20-%20Media%20Release%20%28COMPLETE%29.pdf
“But once Easter weekend passes, it may be time for questions.”
How do we fire all the governments and keep them unemployed and quarantined?
So how many deaths are acceptable to re-open the economy? And deaths among what age-cadre? We accept automobile deaths, overdose deaths and self-inflicted lifestyle deaths as part of the cost of doing business, and don’t even blink about it.
5,000? 10,000? 20,000?
Please don’t say that even one death is unacceptable as our society has never shut down the economy to deal with cancer, overdoses, or car accidents so there must be a number that we tolerate.
What is it?
Assessing risk of death is something that we all do, albeit subconsciously. To ask someone to put a number on it is difficult.
I’ll propose that we compare the odds of death to that of the odds of of an airplane crash.
We all undertsnd that flying in an aluminum tube is an unnatural and risky act, but we all accept the risk for the reward.
So if that’s our standard, do we accept re-opening the economy as the same as the risk we run if we’re willing to take 20 filghts? 200? 2,000?
What’s your number?
Montana physician Dr. Annie Bukacek discusses how COVID 19 death certificates are being manipulated
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5wn1qs_bBk
This whole situation has been a form of psychological trauma.
Fear of dying from some unseen enemy.
Sudden loss of your career and livelihood.
Being denied fundamental civil liberties and freedoms.
Social stigmatization and forced coercion to jump on board with the COVID-19 religion.
The fallout will be catastrophic. The cute “Stay at Home” memes will soon give way to clear mental deterioration when people realize that the largely insufficient 2K from Trudeau runs out and that they have no job to return to.
Couple this will being treated like a criminal, and you have a complete picture of a mind-rape of a helpless populace.
#240Wait There-countries such as Taiwan, Japan and Singapore,etc. have governments and leaders looking out for their countries and societies. This has been evident for a very long time. Canada does not have that-not even close. Would anyone here be surprised to see that even though we are all under house arrest basically the flow of “undocumented migrants” as Justin calls them increases with the help of the Canadian federal government? Of course not. Would that happen in Japan or Taiwan? Of course not.
@250 OK DOOMER-
I dunno, ask Karen as apparently our country is run according to the wishes of risk averse soccer Moms now.
And while you ask them, be mindful and think of the children…
#250OK Doomer-you totally miss the point-this whole thing has nothing to do with health-the point is that when we tell you to drink bleach you drink bleach not give us lip-80% of Canadians are happy to drink the bleach and those stupid sheep are angry at you-what makes you think you are so special? In Oakville the cops charged a young couple with criminal trespassing for being alone on a soccer field-you can get on a crowded bus in Oakville but don’t endanger the stupid sheep by being alone in the middle of a soccer field. People are exposing us all to mortal danger by continuing to use nature trails such as the Bruce Trail-by you continuing to walk in the woods all us stupid sheep are imperiled.
Caught between a rock and a hard place.
Talking about relaxing restrictions as the number of causalities is low: What if it skyrockets and we have to implement even stricter rules at a later time, for much longer and with much higher overall price?
Then what?
The underlying issue is with the debt driven unsustainable economy and lack of savings.
50 years ago this would have been a walk in the park.
No amount of artificial stimulus will fix this, on the contrary, it will cause very, very bad inflation and impoverishment of the already poor debt slaves.
No amount of CPR will bring this dead horse back to live.
Cheers,
@#129 John in Mtl
“Stop spewing nonsense and disinformation about Quebec! You don’t know squat. We have **more cases documented simply because we test more**. And… most of our cases are in senior residences and old-age long-term care hospital facilities.”
++++
Errr no.
Statistically speaking. Quebec has the oldest (per capita) population in Canada.
If it were a country it would be the ninth oldest population in the world ranking slightly behind Japan ( who are about to get slammed with CV19 deaths) and Italy ( slammed with CV19 deaths)
I expect Quebec will be the hardest hit province, by far, in this country because of the large catholic Boomer families with multiples of children in the 1940’s,50’s and 60’s.
You wanted facts for the high death rate in Quebec?
The reasons are staring you in the face at every retirement party you attend….
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/elderly-oldest-population-world-japan/
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/apr/27/oldest-residents-elderly-ageing
The “oldest” cities are in Japan, Italy and Spain…….
https://www.aplaceformom.com/blog/9-13-16-canadian-cities-with-the-oldest-population/
Newfoundland and the rest of the Maritimes are “older” than Quebec but they are predominantly rural and the elderly arent jammed into cities……
The “Wu -Flu” is killing the elderly, the obese, and a very, very small percentage of others.
Time to rethink the world wide economic ban on everyone and focus on the people most affected?
#250 OK, Doomer on 04.10.20 at 10:05 am
So how many deaths are acceptable to re-open the economy?
What is it?
—————————–
I’ve read 0.3 deaths per day per million people indicates a safe rate of infection to take off restrictions and keep this thing in check. Depends on the pop density of the area too.
“The issue is the intelligent management of pandemic risk. We all know C19 requires social distancing, hand-washing and common sense. But turning off the entire economy is negatively affecting people in a profound way.”
I’ve been studying my fellow humans all my life. Many of them are terrible at infection control. They sample the grapes in the grocery stores, sneeze and cough without covering their mouths, and scientists find e.coli on absolutely everything, which means they don’t know how to wipe their asses and wash their hands. That’s the physical evidence.
How about inside their minds? Plenty of people right here on this comment section have expressed the view that it’s only the flu, only the olds succumb to it, etcetera. Politicians have called it a hoax, pointedly shaken the hands of all the hospital cases, said that they, personally, would not bother wearing a mask, etcetera.
These cretins are not going to get good at infection control overnight. And when told to limit shopping and travel to only essential business, many of them will form a very broad and elastic idea of what’s essential.
For a decade, this blog’s central theme is that most people are financially stupid – overindebted and underdiversified. Even though their credit card statements now tell them monthly how much interest they’re paying and that if they make the minimum payments and stop spending today, they’ll be all paid off when they’re 147 years old.
And you trust these cretins to wash their hands, socially distance, and self-monitor for symptoms? Yeah right.
The fact that we got the government we deserve might be the most terrifying concept of this whole pandemic.
Where have all the heart attacks gone?
https://cuencahighlife.com/a-cardiologist-says-where-have-all-the-heart-attacks-gone/
Hey are they conditioning us to wait in long lines outside of supermarkets (with pharmacies inside) and the Drug Stores?
T2 just told us. No one may buy or sell with normalcy unless they get a jab.
How to get that miracle needle? The same places currently offering flu shots.
….you’ll have to wait in long lineups outside supermarkets with pharmacies, and drug stores.
We are like animals to our rulers. Training us well. Shock and awe.
About that social distancing. First it was 3 feet. Then 6 feet. Now, if this researcher is correct it’s a whopping 27 feet. This could mean all the pretty yellow spacing lines on the Walmart and Costco floors were useless in limiting transmission of the virus.
“…it may seem surprising that the current understanding of the routes of host-to-host transmission in respiratory infectious diseases are predicated on a model of disease transmission developed in the 1930s that, by modern standards, seems overly simplified. ”
“…the gas cloud and its payload of pathogen-bearing droplets of all sizes can travel 23 to 27 feet (7-8 m).”
“A 2020 report from China demonstrated that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus particles could be found in the ventilation systems in hospital rooms of patients with COVID-19”
( This link doesn’t work well… click on the jama article)
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=content-shareicons&utm_content=article_engagement&utm_medium=social&utm_term=032620#.Xn048zPgZVA.twitter
Good Friday today in the Lowerbrainland.
Finally a bee-you-tee-full day on a holiday weekend no less…..
Warm, sunny, no wind.
Time to wash and wax the truck…..
My big kando landlord is allowing rent payment deferrals on a case by case basis. BUT you must come up with a re-payment plan.
Let’s see average $2000 rent, 6 months, now you got 10,000 in fresh debt.
Many might walk away and declare BK in the end.
DELETED
#242 Mon on 04.10.20 at 9:24 am
As I was trying to point out to Dolce Vita, the numbers cannot be relied on. Obviously they are not doing enough testing and there are reports that millions have already been infected with the virus. If that is the case, the death rate is not anywhere near the 3.5% or 1% that is stated. it could even be less than the seasonal flu.
The other problem is that they’ve been counting any death related to respiratory complications as CV-19 deaths even though it wasn’t even the primary reason for the death. So that will also skew the numbers.
The fact is we just don’t know exactly which is why Garth is correct in that a more prudent approach should have been taken.
#248 Penny Henny
The atmosphere in Niagara Falls is absolutely surreal, like some horror scene from the Carnival HBO series. A monstrous gamblers circus town totally deserted. No more constant circling tourist choppers , Just the silent echoes of the past lingering in the swampy river air.
For one of Justin`s favorite haunts the economic losses must be horrific ! They were spending like drunken sailors on fabulous new attractions like the never occupied children`s wild play park , a $130-million (no-distancing) theatre and an ill-conceived monster zip line blocking the walkway view of the falls. A fleet of brand new helicopters rust stranded at the hele-port next to the shuttered Great Wolf Lodge.
The flip your way to prosperity home sales numbers are the last thing on the unemployed population`s mind.
for those thinking that our government is doing a good job.
Check out
T A I W A N.
Then you will see that we have been led down the path by politicians who will cover up what they did wrong and use YOUR money to make you think think they are doing well.
Wait since 40% of Canadians don’t pay net taxes and more so after this, the government is doing a fantastic job.
#260 Figure it Out on 04.10.20 at 10:57 am
Re: handwashing, cleanliness, and blah blah
————
Yo, Fig: we’re animals, you know. Which other animals voluntarily wash their paws or care about germs? And somehow, the other species manage to survive.
As a matter of fact: the sloth, among other animals, has a symbiotic relationship with body fungus. Hippies were also onto this early on.
Crocodiles just don’t get infections, period. They have the strongest known immune system: an actual serum in their blood.
The least allergic humans known are rural Belgians who live in shared accommodation with farm animals. Some Austrians surely do the same. Looking at you, Ponz.
Exposure to germs and developed resistance is the key for any disease our body can handle.
Let me lead the way to less hygiene, more nature. Exercise your immune system! Catch the virus voluntarily and cheer it on. Create a more robust species.
My progeny will not live in bubbles. Hoping for crocodile-humans eventually.
#259 Faron on 04.10.20 at 10:49 am
#250 OK, Doomer on 04.10.20 at 10:05 am
So how many deaths are acceptable to re-open the economy?
What is it?
—————————–
I’ve read 0.3 deaths per day per million people indicates a safe rate of infection to take off restrictions and keep this thing in check. Depends on the pop density of the area too.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
As good a number as any. Thanks!
#259 Faron on 04.10.20 at 10:49 am
#250 OK, Doomer on 04.10.20 at 10:05 am
So how many deaths are acceptable to re-open the economy?
What is it?
—————————–
I’ve read 0.3 deaths per day per million people indicates a safe rate of infection to take off restrictions and keep this thing in check. Depends on the pop density of the area too.
_____
Did you Google Deaths of Despair yet, Faron? Do you realise that more people will die from the economy shutting down than the virus? So you’re trading economic destruction and more deaths from people not being able to put food on their family’s table than the virus would kill.
Sigh.
As you said, the models for the U.S. have improved significantly over the last week (90K+ deaths predicted last Friday to 60K+ deaths predicted a couple days ago). How does that square with the following Canadian predictions:
“Health officials said they expected the number of Canadians killed by the disease to double over the next week said that without controls in place, models show as many as 80% of Canada’s population could become infected, and as many as 350,000 could die.”
Based on that info, Trudeau is saying the following:
“This is the new normal, until a vaccine is developed…it will take months of continued, determined effort. We’ll need to keep practicing physical distancing, staying home and washing our hands.”
…
“It’s important that people understand that we will have to be vigilant for a year or year and half. There will be things we are not able to do,”
#250 OK Doomer
How many deaths are acceptable?
How about up to 2,000,000 Boomers.
Or up to 200 millenials and younger.
This would put our health priorities where they make the most sense, balanced by normal life expectancies.
Many of those who might catch the virus and die would very soon be in their final years anyway. Let’s not bankrupt the economy for that. A lot of the victims now are in their 80s or close to it, already well past the old mantra of “three score and ten”, marking a life long enough to be grateful for.
………
I should add something to clarify.
Millenials who are out there dancing around, hanging at the beach and pretending that the virus is no big deal, spreading their germs, well they are just as “expendable” as a 70 or 80 year old in my opinion. So a bigger number of those denialists is no problem, jmho
re: freaking out! Not anymore!
I stopped ‘freaking out’ when I learned Tonic water taken with some Zinc can interfere with virus replication. see link.
I now drink a can of tonic water with 50mg or so of Zinc each day. I’m hoping to be part of the 80% with mild sickness.
Chloroquine/quince in tonic water helps more zinc get into cells, the zinc interferes with virus replication slowing it down giving your own immune system more time to react to it.
I’m also taking multivitamin,C,D3,K2,B’s,folic acid, iodine, anti-oxidants like turmeric…, eating well, sleeping well, to help get my immune system ready to fight the CCP virus.
If I getting really sick or have underlying medical condition and need to seek medical help from a Dr. I will be insisting on $20.USD of 3 meds for 5 days. (if they don’t interfere with other meds I might be on.)
so I’m more likely to stay out of ICU and avoid death! see 2nd link.
How the zinc helps stop virus’s
Coronavirus Epidemic Update 34: US Cases Surge, Chloroquine & Zinc Treatment Combo, Italy Lockdown
MedCram – Medical Lectures Explained CLEARLY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M&t=280s
For the 3 drug to ask for if you get very sick.
The Hydroxy treatment appears to be working so far! In an exclusive interview, Dr. Vladmir Zelenko shares with us a preliminary study outlining that out of his 699 patients treated, he has had ZERO deaths, ZERO intubations, and four hospitalizations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TJdjhd_XG8&t=2118s
What is up with the media??
(They are tell us what they want the masses to know, not always what we should know. It’s been that way as long as I can remember.)
CBC interviewed yesterday (not a Dr) a women taking chloriquine for months for arthritis that had a bad reaction. It’s like they don’t even want people to look at it and use there brains.
They do want to push the vaccine, the one we don’t have yet. CBC should be interviewing the people that were trying to make a SARS vaccine and the animal trials the vaccine made the infection to the virus worse. Or interview the people that had bad vaccine reactions. Apparently most don’t, but all meds have possible unwanted effects for some.
But media aren’t paid to tell the masses about these people.
(personally I got bad colds within weeks of getting a flu shot. Stopped getting the flu shot and now only get mild colds, if at all. Yes, a study of one does not make it so. Take more low cost D3 in winter now.)
How healthy do drug corporations want people to be? They can’t sell as many expensive drugs to make a bigger profit, if most people stay well.
Most people in health care do want to help people get better if you get sick.
Seems there are a few in the ‘court/cult of the emperor with no clothes’ that look the other way. It’s not in there personal economic interest to take off there rose colored glasses, use there brains and say anything.
They are happy telling people putting ‘very toxic’ HFSA Fluoride in the drinking water and telling people it’s ‘safe and effective’, it is not! The legal documents say it, ‘can be dangerous if allowed to enter drinking water intake pipes’… But don’t let facts get in the way of the ‘option’ of ‘safe and effective’.
For the inquiring minds, http://fluoridealert.org/
So when they tell me we must all stay home for month until we all take a vaccine they don’t have, and have not had any long term double blind studies of, against a water solution.
You can perhaps understand my lack of faith, and questioning of the agenda and it’s safely.
Yes it is a real virus,
it is bad/worse than the flu for some people, most not, but can’t tell if it will be you. It can spread faster and easier than the regular flu. Did it get out of the P4 lab, maybe? The CCP did try and cover it up at first.
The WHO did help it spread by being the CCP mouth piece. ‘It does not spread between people. No need to stop flights.
CCP bought up PPE from around the world and had it shipped back to China before they told the world how bad it was.’ The CCP is not our friend, is it war? and with whom?
Might some be trying to use it for their own agenda. Like Bill Gates, ‘if we get a vaccines right we can reduce population by perhaps 15%’.
WHO guy, ‘we might need to come into peoples homes and take your sick family member/kids away to keep it from spreading’, (to force the vaccines into there bodies, without consent.)
I hope you all stay well or only get a mild case, if at all.
Do look at the first two links and pass them on!
Hope the studies eventually show the data that some doctor already sense they do.
I’m not sure when or if the mass media will tell use about treatments that work. Seems they want to push the vaccine that might be available at some future date, with limited testing, maybe. If they get one and it work great. But don’t force it on the people that don’t want it, or limit rights to work or move around until they do!
I’m doing my bit to not get it and slow it’s spread by social distancing, washing my hands, unable to work. Don’t force or cowers medications/vaccines into anyone that doesn’t consent!
Garth- Why the deletion?
The source is despicable. – Garth
“UN chief warns COVID-19 threatens global peace and security” (globe and mail).
As if we don’t have enough to worry about.
#59 Piano_Man87 on 04.09.20 at 5:22 pm
I think the fear is well founded. Sure, the death rate is very low. But that’s not all we should be afraid of. Many are left with permanently damaged lung function. If you are someone who is sedentary, it may not matter to you. But I love distance running, and I’m terrified of getting COVID-19, and losing the ability to go for a run.
———-
Yes, let’s over react and kill the economy so you can keep running in the slim chance you are effected to the point it affects your lung capacity.
271 Sail Away
“Hoping for crocodile-humans eventually….”
++++
Well if the “lizard brain” hypothesis is correct, we’re half way there
i love everything about Garth’s ideas-almost. But saying that 30% to 60% of the population getting the disease is “absurd” is like telling somebody standing on a railroad track not to worry about getting hit by a train, because statistically it’s not happening very often. Taking all the precautions we are taking is precisely like stepping off the damn track. It will be civil disservice if after all this sacrifice some people try to score points by saying it was over-reacting.
“Montana physician Dr. Annie Bukacek discusses how COVID 19 death certificates are being manipulated”
Just goes to show you can earn an MD and still lack critical thinking skills.
– She says her fellow doctors are doing an honest, best efforts job at filling out death certificates. Nobody’s coding brain aneurysms and gunshot wounds as COVID deaths.
– She says many infected with COVID have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic (I understand this is true) but extends that logic to symptomatic people sick enough to be admitted to hospital (almost certainly false)
– If we take her theory that many people coded as dying with/of COVID, or with symptoms DIDN’T die “of” COVID, she provides absolutely no explanation for excess deaths being seen in e.g. NYC. 1,000 deaths/day in a city that normally sees about 150 requires an explanation!
#73 Dolce Vita on 04.09.20 at 5:46 pm
Garth, it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation with C19.
C19’s virulence numbers are at least 20X those of the flu, even if at similar mortality rates and if you do nothing…they’ll lynch you for all the deaths.
If you do something, it costs a fortune economically to try and render citizens harmless, but if you don’t…they’ll lynch you for all the economic pain.
I look at this whole thing Garth and I think:
CATCH 22.
——–
Why does it have to be so binary? Look at Sweden, Taiwan, or S. Korea on how they are handling it.
Ease up on the news you are being fed by the news.
@#297 Paper Tiger
“232 farts
If I ever meet you in elevator you’ll never leave that elevator you’re a disgusting human being”
+++
Errr, I think you were referring to #231
Possible this got you wound up?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/06/police-absences-may-lead-to-rise-in-suicides-mps-told
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/03/31/trez-m31.html
My apologies if the truth makes you angry Paper Tiger.
“Disgusting” is in the nose of the beholder.
Threaten all you want from the anonymity of the internet.
Very brave of you.
Garth- Why the deletion?
The source is despicable. – Garth
So you know who wrote it? I honestly don’t. And I don’t know why it matters.
You would know, if you did. – Garth
I looked it up. Not gonna go too in depth but he looks like he’s a 2nd Amendment gun lover. Don’t see much else.
Nevertheless, his rant is very relevant to what we’re talking about here. But it’s your blog.
Yup. it is. – Garth
#284 n1tro
I get my news from the balanced Italian & English MSM.
Cdn news for the most part is for amusement as is FOX…one or both are evidently your news sources.
And what’s up with binary? What is that anyway? “In the know” name dropping?
What happened to plain speaking English?
I was bored today and thought I’d go out and drive around and check out some local ERs here in Scarboroughs biggest hospitals.
Expecting to see lineups covid-19 patients waiting to be tested I was received with silence, shocking silence.!
One person in the waiting room, that’s usually jammed with 100.
No sign of covid-19 patients, just silence, empty silence.
In Quebec, 90% of deaths due to Covid-19 are from people age 70+ and 9% from people age 60+.
Open up the economy and protect the people needed extra care!