The big fear

As the U of Pittsburgh announced a Covid vaccine Monday (!) the Trudeau-bucks portal opened, and was utterly swamped. No surprise there.

This not-a-virus-blog can’t tell you if the new treatment will work at keeping the bug at bay, but the evidence continues to mount that people went into this crisis with their pants around their ankles. So far (three short weeks) about 2.5 million have claimed EI payments. Another two or three million will scramble after the two-grand-a-month benefit. And we know more than 500,000 homeowners have besieged the banks looking for mortgage deferral relief. That’s a staggering 11% of all home loans currently held by the Big Banks, and the number is swelling. This is shifting more than $650 million per month from payments, to an increase in the amount these folks will owe. And they think they’re getting a deal…

The dismal state of personal finances, the panic, the despair, the fear and the spirit of defeat and retreat so evident among the sad posters on this site may be swell news. Could this be that moment of utter capitulation, when most people think recovery will never come, depression is certain, capitalism will fail and we’ll all be huntin’ squirrel and boiling bark? Sheesh. Look at the public mood. It’s ugly. Social distance warriors everywhere.  Renters stiffing landlords. Politicians yelling at citizens. Travelers being shamed. Asians hated. All amid a cacophony of pandemic predictions which have shocked and stressed the masses.

But, wait. Lo, what’s this?

Look at volatility on the financial markets – the fear gauge of investors called the Vix. After spiking madly to a level greater than 2008 just a few weeks ago, it’s plunged by almost half. Why has the measure of market anxiety dropped so fast even as the economic damage of turning off the economy builds?

And have a gander at the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500.

This is a proxy for the entire American economy, currently headed for a jobless level of maybe 30 million, and a collapse in corporate profits as planes don’t fly and people sit at home. But, yikes, this market has added 20% since late March and soared, giddy, on Monday. (The Dow gained 1,627 points and the S&P grew 7%.)

So, huh? What’s going on?

The key thing to remember about equity markets is that they’re forward-looking. Leading indicators. Investors care a lot more about where we’re going than where we are. That’s exactly why the Dow, the S&P and Bay Street crashed by about 30% in mid-February even before the emergency orders went out, the ICUs started filling with patients or the WHO declared a pandemic. Trouble was coming. It was gonna be bad. Head for the cellar.

Of course it takes average people a lot longer to smell fear. They start to react strongly when governments tell them to go home, stores close, jobs are lost, the toilet paper hoarding starts, cash flow disappears and the media brims with non-stop, cover-to-cover virus porn. As the news gets more grim, fear becomes panic, then desperation and finally to the point where some random guy yells at me to ‘go home and stay home’ when I’m walking my dog. That would be now. Capitulation. Be careful, or we’ll all die. A recent poll found that 50% of Canadians fear they will get the virus. So far it’s 0.04%.

So what does Mr. Market see?

More volatility, of course. That’s a given. And there will be many bad days to come with assets losing value. But recovery is inevitable. Daily deaths have leveled off in Europe. Falling, even. Public health officials think the apex may have arrived in New York City. Social distancing, hand-washing, cancelling events, remote employment – it all seems to be working. At least that’s the perception. That the pandemic would end was never in doubt. The issue has been one of timing. And it now seems closer. At least the end of the beginning.

Meanwhile some great companies look cheap. Central banks and governments are spending historic amounts to fluff asset values, finance the unemployed, inject liquidity into the system, bail out distressed industries and protect the capital markets. This is the moment of truth for fiscal and monetary policy. It was TPTB that shoved the economy into a medically-induced coma, and it will be the same guys who breathe the life back into it.

Of course, none of the above means markets cannot retest lows or that your corner Chinese restaurant will ever re-open. Millions of people have received a big whack on the head – folks who thought debt didn’t matter and caching was for chipmunks. Large swaths of the population will be hurting for years to come. Much of it will be self-imposed. Some of it very unfair. But that’s life. And the death rate is still 100%. Sucks.

So, you can wallow and vex with the nihilists in steerage. Or you can prepare for what’s coming. Whatever. Just don’t yell at me.

 

262 comments ↓

#1 Flop... on 04.06.20 at 4:53 pm

Well, it’s that time of year that the White House trots out that person with the weird looks, in the ill fitting suit, that freaks all the kids out.

Not Trump, The Easter Bunny.

Trump likes this time of year apparently.

He knows for once he’s not the weirdest looking dude up on stage.

Even Justin seems to enjoy a Hot, Cross, Trump…

M45BC

https://www.bustle.com/p/2019-white-house-easter-egg-roll-photos-make-it-look-like-quite-the-holiday-party-17133808

#2 Emile on 04.06.20 at 4:59 pm

+1 for optimism.

#3 Where's My Charity Money Going Galeneau? on 04.06.20 at 5:00 pm

Re: #239 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.20 at 8:25 am
@#228 Where’s my charity money Galeneau?

I’m just curious.
Do you see conspiracy’s every time you go to the bathroom and use toilet paper?
(Since it was obviously manufactured by the pulp and paper industrial complex…..the bleach in the paper allows them to track you….)

Or when you finish, wash your hands and look in the mirror?
++++++++++++++++++++++++
What part of my entry is a theory?
I guess the CRA is a conspiracy theorist then also, and the Competition Bureau’s bread fixing charge is all a figment of my imagination. You know Loblaw did rat out their accomplices to save their azz in that case. The Comp. Bureau was investigating them for their shoddy points system including missing customer points through incompetence or malfeasance when Loblaw came clean on the bread fixing and threw everyone under the bus to stop the points investigation (still has no conclusion 5 years later).

I was simply asking if Mr. Weston was trying to correct his blatant disregard for the law and not playing us for fools. I believe the latter.
Superstore still has no literature on what % of and where charity money given by customers goes after all this time (years after they refused to be give any response to Marketplace’s question). Wouldn’t you like to be able to read where your hard earned gift goes?
Garth would have deleted me if he felt it was not newsworthy or libellous.

Also: #184 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 8:10 pm
damn spell check
5 “Twoonies”

did anyone notice?
+++++++
I noticed but felt a waste of time to respond to such an inane entry.

#4 Lost...but not leased on 04.06.20 at 5:00 pm

OK…not Phyrzzzt…

…..but close is good enough in horseshoes and handgrenades

#5 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 5:04 pm

The eggheads and politicians will deflect and say its was because of social distancing measures which have only been in effect for a week, maybe two.

So if that can save millions of lives, allegedly, then why don’t we have a infectious disease jubilee every year and then businesses can plan for it. Set it in the middle of flu season and make it 2 weeks every year. We should be able to stop all flus, colds and infectious diseases as well as stop deaths from car accidents.

But in reality, they were wrong and we will all be paying for it. We basically got a 30day trial of socialism for nothing. Hope it focused some minds but I doubt it.

#6 Doug t on 04.06.20 at 5:04 pm

The Cornhole is a ploy by TPTB – they want more control over your so-called ‘civil liberties “ and we are playing right into it. Things will NOT be the same when this passes. Just as they were not the same after the twin towers were blown up. We’re all just rats in a maze looking for that bit of cheese really. At least for now you can still have a glass of wine with that cheese – enjoy it while you can

#7 I'm worried about ... on 04.06.20 at 5:06 pm

my local Chinese Smogiebode. They were almost dead and gone before this.

#8 what am I missing? on 04.06.20 at 5:06 pm

DJIA up 7% today, while covid numbers in the US are worsening. Also, BoJo is in the ICU (hope he makes a full recovery). The wild stock market swings as of late make no sense to me. Are the algos running wild???

#9 Michael King on 04.06.20 at 5:07 pm

“more than 500,000 homeowners have besieged the banks looking for mortgage deferral relief. That’s a staggering 11% of all home loans currently held by the Big Banks”
I’ve been reading this blog for many years and the analyses offered by you and your colleagues are usually on the mark. However, that stat is a shocker. I don’t deny that the economy and financial markets will eventually recover and stabilize. But those who predict wine and roses by Q3/4 are engaging in wishful thinking IMHO. Here’s a reality check and thank you Garth.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/there-is-no-plan-for-the-end-of-the-coronavirus-crisis.html

#10 Paully on 04.06.20 at 5:07 pm

This would be a great time for the TTC to close the subway from Finch to St. Clair and get the ATC upgrades done quickly and finish up the connection to the Eglinton LRT. Small crews, working all week could maintain good distancing, while finishing up a job that has been taking way to long.

#11 Niagara Region on 04.06.20 at 5:08 pm

On April 2, 2020, on Amanpour & Co, Dr. Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College, London, said that he believes that one-third of all Brits now have the coronavirus. The problem is that because testing levels are so low, the size of the current population with the virus is dramatically undercounted.

#12 We Live in a society on 04.06.20 at 5:10 pm

Let Toronto real estate collapse! It’s not as if the bottom 80% of young and unemployed men will care in any case, as they are already disenfranchised living in a post-estrogenized society.

#13 Leftover on 04.06.20 at 5:12 pm

The real trick will be getting people making $2,000 a month for nothing and thinking they don’t need to pay rent to go back to a job. What a bummer, man!

But the damage is done. Landlords are toast, real estate may crumble, and many small companies won’t re-open after this one. Our society is in for some self-inflicted hurt.

#14 Mike in Airdrie on 04.06.20 at 5:13 pm

Garth can you please write a blog on what you think will happen to value of CAD once we are through the crisis? Are we going to be taxed into the ground to pay for it all?

If the feds borrow huge sums and dish money at anything with a pulse what does that look like going forward?

#15 Leigh on 04.06.20 at 5:14 pm

According to this leading scientist in epidemiology; social distancing has prevented a herd immunity from developing among the 80% of younger people who had a better chance of developing antibodies against Covid-19 after contracting it, so basically the nursing homes should have been closed and schools remained open.

https://youtu.be/lGC5sGdz4kg

#16 Keen Reader on 04.06.20 at 5:14 pm

Highly grateful for Garth’s daily dose of knowledge and wisdom. No yelling but definitely looking for any additional investing advice. The concern is seeing CV-19 numbers still going up, plus many financial “experts” calling for more downside ahead. It could be a while yet before markets fully recover. So how is everyone readjusting their portfolios meanwhile?

I’ll start with my current positions:
Cash – 13%
XBB/SB – 13%
XIC – 17%
XSP – 15%
XWD – 23%
XPF – 11%
Some XRE & GLD

Not very greedy, 5-10 year horizon; waiting for more clarity to redeploy the cash, yet debating to trim XWD soon (cristallizing losses?). Looking forward to comments!

#17 MF on 04.06.20 at 5:17 pm

“The key thing to remember about equity markets is that they’re forward-looking. Leading indicators. Investors care a lot more about where we’re going than where we are.”

-No. Equity markets care more about the amount of stimulus they get than anything else. This has been the case since 2008. Remember all those years where the dow would rise when jobless claims would come in high? Bad news = more stimulus = good news. Lol. Just lol.

We’ve had multiple weekend warrior posts by Doug and Ryan proving the relationship between stimulus and equities with charts, graphs, and so on.

So of course we will get a recovery. No one doubts that. Let’s just remember it cost 2 trillion dollars.

MF

#18 Sail Away on 04.06.20 at 5:18 pm

Hey Shawn Allen,

As it’s turning out, the impact of the Corv seems closer to my expectation than yours.

Does that mean your opinion was idiotic? Not that I would ever insult another’s opinion in that way, of course.

#19 Howard on 04.06.20 at 5:19 pm

Boris Johnson’s condition worsens and he is admitted to the ICU and is on a ventilator. Dominic Raab has effectively taken over. It is not looking good.

#20 dosouth on 04.06.20 at 5:21 pm

Here we sit in Red Bay Alabama, waiting for repairs to our Tiffin motorhome. We have been traveling for 7 months…the last few in the states. 3 cases of Covid-19 in the county we are in. Safe in our home on wheels, delayed by ? weeks due to repairs but no “run” for the border. Safer here than in Canada. Reading your blog keeps perspective in our world but most of all your stats are at least informative. Unfortunately Trudeau thinks we cannot handle the truth…Government are not the leaders, common sense is, and you cannot legislate that.

#21 just a dude on 04.06.20 at 5:23 pm

Garth,

It sucks that some random dude yelled at you, but not surprising. Sorry you had to endure such an indignity from a nameless member of the panicked masses.

I recently told the family unit that we have to be collectively wary of how neighbours and others perceive us as we dare step out to get groceries (just once a week, I swear!) or to head to work (of the essential kind – we lucked out).

Thank you for remaining a voice of reason and calm.

#22 marnic on 04.06.20 at 5:23 pm

CBs and gov’t breathing life back into hollowed out, worthless corporations…yeah, I feel so much better now. Markets to the moon, we need a bigger bubble, stat!

#23 Boombust on 04.06.20 at 5:25 pm

The stock market is “forward-looking”? Hmm, not according to famed economist (now deceased) John Kenneth Galbraith; he always said the market was a “lagging” indicator. Others have weighed in saying that it is “co-incident” at best.

Yes, the Casino Royale was open for business again today. So? At least you got it right toward the end when you hinted that Wall Street and Main Street are quite different animals.

#24 Dave on 04.06.20 at 5:27 pm

And why isn’t anyone talking about the incompetence of the WHO?
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/04/02/China-Secrecy-Pandemic/

#25 JacqueShellacque on 04.06.20 at 5:27 pm

The SDW stuff seems to be generational. The young and/or everyone with a [email protected] account seems to be both an expert epidemiologist (a word most probably would not have known a month ago), as well as holder of a morally superior card. I’m curious about how much fear of backlash from keyboard warriors stretches this out longer than it needs to be, if that hasn’t been done already. At the risk of generalizing, young urban techies (who I work with but due to differences in age and background I am not one of) are not concerned about the economic or social impacts of the shutdown.

In a work chat room today one guy was fuming about seeing 2 ‘elderly’ women jogging 6′ apart from each other in a park in Ottawa on Sunday. It wasn’t enough for him that they maintained the 6′ distance: they were in that proximity for an extended period, possibly expelling droplets, etc. All the hallmarks of modern morally vain douchery were there: feigned concern on behalf of others who wouldn’t need it or don’t care, uncivil and antisocial umbrage taken for violation of arbitrary social norm. Other than the economic effects, this will be the lasting legacy of the virus.

#26 Dave on 04.06.20 at 5:31 pm

Will the Canadian government learn a lesson regarding Debt?

Debt problem has been raging and now so many people are screwed. Biggest contributor is Housing – buying or renting – either way majority of your money is sent to one line item.

Will the government and the financial system take this moment to Pivot or are we going back to the crazy world of spend now pay later?

#27 Zed on 04.06.20 at 5:32 pm

Maybe the skies are clearing enough for me to think to cross back into Canada after a very good 6 months driving around southern U.S. and Mexico.

Did i miss anything?

Being in Florida the last month, warm under blue sky, with social distancing but with services available, i feel pump up to face the canadian spring.

Portfolio is down from its high of mid-Feb., only one dividend cut so far from my diversified portfolio, but looking forward to spend some CAD (at par) into the economy to help it move forward.

Thanks Garth for your support, coaching and uplifting daily blogs.

#28 S on 04.06.20 at 5:32 pm

“…but the evidence continues to mount that people went into this crisis with their pants around their ankles…”

And those whose pants were not around their ankles have promptly dropped them so as to appear needy and get while the getting is good.

#29 Sail Away on 04.06.20 at 5:33 pm

#11 Niagara Region on 04.06.20 at 5:08 pm

On April 2, 2020, on Amanpour & Co, Dr. Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College, London, said that he believes that one-third of all Brits now have the coronavirus.

The problem is that because testing levels are so low, the size of the current population with the virus is dramatically undercounted.

——————

Problem? What problem?

If nobody cares, it’s not a problem.

Flu is flu. Just get it, have a day of fever and be done.

#30 Last Gasp on 04.06.20 at 5:35 pm

Just a thought. Any blog dogs know of anyone in their circle have:

A) permanently shuttered a business in their burbs?
B) got a successful T2 federalae loan so far?
C) have been told when they get their old job back?
D)have bounced on paying the mortgage?
E) have anyone in their family that got the bug and recovered and are herd immunized and ready to back into battle?

My personal count is (if your rotary buddy’s hearsay is worth salt) is 8 out of 180 business in our burg KO’ed permanently including our vitamin shop, a curry restaurant, a shoe store, and a few personal service places like weight loss and counseling services directly related to the covid bug. Be interesting to hear the street vibe where you are at from the other Garthites in rest of our white north.

#31 MF on 04.06.20 at 5:36 pm

#5 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 5:04 pm

No. They didn’t get anything wrong. The pandemic is just beginning. New cases every day. Lol I wouldn’t declare any sort of victory yet. The virus doesn’t give to poops about the two trillion dollars the fed just spent to prop up the stock market a few percentage points.

Let’s face it. The economy was on unsteady footing before the virus. It’s not the politicians fault. Nature couldn’t care less about yours or my portfolio, or anything. The virus has no brain, no empathy, no fear, no strategy. It’s a moving target and there is no financial solution to it.

MF

Smoking deaths in Canada, annually: 45,000. Opioid deaths in Canada, 2018: 4,900. Virus deaths in Canada to date: 322. Maybe we should be focusing additional energy in other areas, if we care so deeply about preventing mortality. – Garth

#32 Dustin on 04.06.20 at 5:39 pm

Even Garth Turner gets yelled at, now I don’t feel so bad, thanks for that. I got told several profanities because I forgot we’re not allowed to share the elevator anymore.

#33 Flanneur on 04.06.20 at 5:41 pm

Today we have police patrols in park, mon morning, the weekend too. People are starting to act weird. Lots of space so everyone can keep their distance but now people give weird looks like you’re going to infect them saying hi from 15 feet away.

#34 mark on 04.06.20 at 5:41 pm

Vaccine?
Ya right!
You know how hard it is to get that right! and Safe!
You know what happens when you get it wrong!
A screwed up vaccine with side effects will make the corona virus look like a walk in the park.
They will cut corners with the vaccine and people will be more sick and death rate higher.
The Doctors on here can articulate, they have screwed up in the past with one and it was a night mare.
I believe its called, binding anti-bodies, which is a no no.
The fastest vaccine we have Every had i believe it is the mumps vaccine, it took 4 YEARS.

I will let the doctors chime in please to articulate specifics.

Thanks for the blog Garth.

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.20 at 5:50 pm

@# 3 Where’s the Conspiracy Greedeau?

Geez, ya took a while to respond.

Busy underlining the pertinent passages in “The Catcher in the Rye”?
Or buying more copies of the book via Amazon?

#36 Sail Away on 04.06.20 at 5:51 pm

Alright, who willingly missed out on the huge market leaps because of fear and herd behaviour? Get used to it: if you chose to miss this, you’ll also miss the next one in the same way.

Ka-ching! $$$$$$$$

And some wonder why the rich get ever richer.

My innate modesty prevents a listing of the specifics. Suffice to say they have been really quite fantastic. With more to come.

#37 Toronto_CA on 04.06.20 at 5:54 pm

My fiance was walking by himself to get groceries today, and was stopped by a police officer and questioned why he is out.

If this is what society has come to, forget the huge question of whether slowing the virus is worth the economic destruction/suicide; can we have a better discussion on whether it’s worth living in a place where civil liberties are under such massive attack?

What was the point of fighting wars for freedom if we are under martial law and house arrest based on faulty science and unknowns?

I think the Swedes have this right.

#38 You know val on 04.06.20 at 5:54 pm

Someone needs to invent a face masks for dog’s!

#39 Dave on 04.06.20 at 5:55 pm

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/04/02/China-Secrecy-Pandemic/

#40 WHAT IS GOING ON on 04.06.20 at 5:56 pm

Corona is the distraction….

What changes are secretly happening to the world behind our backs?

#41 Nonplused on 04.06.20 at 5:57 pm

#29 Sail Away on 04.06.20 at 5:33 pm

“Flu is flu. Just get it, have a day of fever and be done.”

——————–

There seems to be a great number of people who know something about virology that disagree with you.

And let’s not forget that the goal of all this “social distancing” is not to prevent widespread infection, which seems unavoidable, but to prevent it from happening all at once, overwhelming the medical facilities. If that happens the death rate will be much higher than it is now and many people will die who could have been treated. What the appropriate number of people who should be left to die in the hallways is I am not sure, but the goal appears to be zero.

Still people shouldn’t be yelling at other people for walking their dogs. At some point things have gone too far. I’d classify dog walking as an essential service like the grocery store. But I wouldn’t go to an off-leash park because dogs don’t know about this social distancing stuff.

#42 Linda on 04.06.20 at 5:59 pm

Hopefully normal programming will return soon. This has been quite the eye opening experience. It is more than obvious that we as a species need to work on our personal emergency response plans. The problem with waiting for someone to save you is that by the time they arrive it might be too late. ‘God helps those who help themselves’. Very true, especially under circumstances such as these.

#43 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 04.06.20 at 6:00 pm

It is truly breathtaking how fast commercial real estate of high quality in high traffic areas in London, Ontario are papering over more than half of whole strip malls. Not going out for days and within no time realtor signs go up. Previous occupants were bars and craft beer pubs and eateries and nail shops and yoga studios. The virus is knocking people off their feet more than just physically.

#44 BobC on 04.06.20 at 6:02 pm

“ Public health officials think the apex may have arrived in New York City. Social distancing, hand-washing, cancelling events, remote employment – it all seems to be working.”

Reminds me of the guy in Toronto who would stomp his left foot as hard as he could three times every morning.
After a few weeks his family finally asked him why he did that.
“To keep the elephants away”
They laughed and said, “ There’s no elephants in Toronto!”
He replied “See it’s working!”

#45 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 6:03 pm

#32 Dustin on 04.06.20 at 5:39 pm

I got told several profanities because I forgot we’re not allowed to share the elevator anymore.

——————

It’s surprising how offended some people get when you chuckle at ridiculous behavior.

Management courses teach ways to get along with everyone. It’s much more productive to identify the righteously self-involved early, and then concentrate effort on reasonable people.

#46 Peak Preparedness on 04.06.20 at 6:04 pm

Maybe in light of one potential source of the virus (bats) we should reconsider our plans to eat other rodents like squirrels in the SHTF scenario.

#47 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 6:06 pm

#31 MF on 04.06.20 at 5:36 pm

Cases are not increasing, flatlining and declining especially in EU. This thing is over. Probably circulating in NA since December.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

#48 -=withwings=- on 04.06.20 at 6:07 pm

@#5 not first

So if that can save millions of lives, allegedly, then why don’t we have a infectious disease jubilee every year and then businesses can plan for it.

how about we have them when warranted and plan for them?

Set it in the middle of flu season and make it 2 weeks every year.

Covid has nothing to do with the flu but if we had done your plan, hard, early, and aggressively enough (see: S Korea) it would have been over with. Instead, we suffered through people insisting it was nothing (just 0.15% dead!) while Rome burned. Literally.

We should be able to stop all flus, colds and infectious diseases

Most of these are imminently survivable, we have good protocols for them and good vaccines. Why would you shut down the economy for something we have the tools to manage? Sometimes trumpers are just baffling with their ‘logic’

as well as stop deaths from car accidents.
March 2020 will probably be the safest month since forever so at least you got one thing right.

And Garth keeps the stupid train moving:Smoking deaths in Canada, annually: 45,000. Opioid deaths in Canada, 2018: 4,900. Virus deaths in Canada to date: 322.

That’s 123 deaths per day due to smoking, the cumulative effect of 25 years of smoking. We are likely to hit double that from Covid19 in just 3 months

#49 conan on 04.06.20 at 6:11 pm

And why isn’t anyone talking about the incompetence of the WHO?- Dave

Here is the other side of the story.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO5EXjFKE7U

I am still looking at this, trying to make my mind up, for now I think blame should be shared with the West. As soon as Italy flared up everyone should have known that this virus was very dangerous.

#50 People Panic on 04.06.20 at 6:13 pm

Here is an interesting article that poses some serious questions for the “just a flu” crowd:

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/if-lockdown-needless-over-reaction-then-why-did-china-lockdown-half-its-economy

The fact of the matter is that it is much more likely that governments are not telling the whole truth about what they know about this virus, but that it is worse than they are saying not better.

There is no rational explanation for why China would shut down its entire economy over something that didn’t frighten the dickens out of them. And whatever secrets they may be keeping it is likely western intelligence operations figured it out and passed in on to their respective governments.

#51 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 6:15 pm

I’ve noticed a lot of neighbours are setting up vegetable gardens this year. Anyone else seeing that?

#52 Trojan House on 04.06.20 at 6:16 pm

Cities are starting to layoff workers as well. I was just reading, for example, that Ottawa laid off all their spring/summer seasonal workers as everything will be shut or non-operational until June 30th at least.

Ottawa also said they were losing $1 million per week in revenue from everything being closed. I couldn’t find any other articles about any other cities but I can imagine it will be the same thing. Garth hasn’t spoken about what all this lost revenue will do to property taxes but you can bet your bottom dollar that they will be going up exponentially over the next couple of years.

So renting comes out once again – you don’t have to pay it now or for the foreseeable future nor will you have to pay the property tax increases going forward.

#53 Wookie Card on 04.06.20 at 6:17 pm

#38 Toronto_CA

Exactly. This needs to be brought to light in the pathetic, sycophantic mainstream media.

Mr Turner, thank you for continuing to raise the issue of civil liberties being curtailed whilst the Canadian economy is being crushed.

Surprised – sort of – by how few readers seem to care about this intrusion into one’s personal space. Maybe you’re all Millennials?

“Papers Please!”

#54 Peter Courtney on 04.06.20 at 6:17 pm

The people that should be terrified, are the people that were prepared for an economic down turn. The govt will be coming for YOUR wealth when the virus is over.

#55 Rico on 04.06.20 at 6:18 pm

No nihilism, just realistic expectations (no rose coloured glasses either).
I don’t short the market but the next couple days could very well provide an opportunistic messy top to this rally.

Nibbled at some oil at WTI=$21 and rebalanced away from some commercial REITs but otherwise still holding with a healthy cash position.

#56 Brian Ripley on 04.06.20 at 6:20 pm

Just heard Trump (at his daily “briefing”) say they have now tested 1,790,000 people.

That’s about 1/2% of the U.S. population.

The problem is that asymptomatic people are spreading the virus and authorities (and neighbours) don’t know who those people are.

Canada’s tested numbers are far less than 1/2% of our population.

At this point, we don’t know how long this pandemic is going to affect Canada, the U.S. and our global trading partners.

The fix is going to be gradual in coming.

#57 Oracle of Ottawa on 04.06.20 at 6:21 pm

Before everybody gets giddy. This is going to play out longer than you think. It has to get to the point where the number of cases are so low so as to not jeopardize workers resuming their jobs. You cannot allow businesses to resume too early. Otherwise you’ll create another wave of infection which could postpone the economy once again.

#58 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 6:22 pm

#35 Yukon Elvis on 04.06.20 at 5:48 pm

I like the Canadian “oligopolies” such as banks, pipelines, telecoms, and railroads.

———————–

Railroad, yes. Specifically CNR. Banks? Not me, but ok, if they’re interlisted with US markets and have exposure to both.

Pipelines, maybe. I’d stay light.

I’ve punted telecom positions in expectation that Elon Musk and Starlink will either team with one of the biggies and take over all market share, or will choose to fully disrupt them all.

#59 wisdom trumps on 04.06.20 at 6:23 pm

Many thanks Garth and co.

Your 90 rule works and is correct.

Diversification an liquidity is best. Staying invested is wise. Having cash available is key. Debt management is paramount.

Levels heads prevail. Stay come and proceed with this wonderful blog.

#60 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 6:27 pm

Garth the most shocking thing about this isn’t the virus or china or the economy or the unknown, it has to be how quickly people surrendered, no demanded, that their rights be taken away in exchange for a hint of security, even financial security.

I fear socialism is coming here to stay.

#61 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 6:27 pm

A recent poll found that 50% of Canadians fear they will get the virus.-GT

///////////////

I don’t know about others but I don’t fear getting the virus.
I fear passing it to others if I am infected and asymptomatic.
But to get the virus and develop the antibodies is where we have to get to to bring normal back in our lives.
Stay away from me you oldies.
M55ON

#62 Me on 04.06.20 at 6:29 pm

Stop comparing Coronavirus deaths to heart disease, or smoking, or flu deaths. You’ll be embarrassed that you said it, sooner or later.

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-is-bad-comparing-it-to-the-flu-is-worse/amp

#63 Deplorable Dude on 04.06.20 at 6:30 pm

How quickly we’ve turned into a Police State.

This is some really dystopian Black Mirror sh1t the Police are pulling here.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/during-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-quick-happy-birthday-tune-can-turn-into-a-1546-fine?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#

#64 Stone on 04.06.20 at 6:33 pm

As the news gets more grim, fear becomes panic, then desperation and finally to the point where some random guy yells at me to ‘go home and stay home’ when I’m walking my dog.

———

Are you sure it wasn’t about Bandit not keeping his social distance from the rando’s lawn while bandit was doing his duty?

#65 The West on 04.06.20 at 6:36 pm

The REAL index predictors will be how much longer a destroyed credit market will enable all of this “recovery” spending you talk about. This was played as hard as it could be in 2008 and now we are left worse off. As Buffet says, “the tide is out….”

And the reality is, by allowing banks to privatize profits (by extending credit they have no business extending) and socialize losses (now the tax payer bails out the bank AND the overburdened consumer) we are simply destroying the people who work hard and live within their means (the REAL economy).

Whether there is a “recovery” or not, I promise you one thing: the responsible citizens will again be brought down to a lessened average by a destructive banking system and an irresponsible government.

Full-on Communism is how this will end, the establishment will soon own everything and the people will own nothing. SERFDOM.

My God deliver us from this evil.

#66 NFN_NLN on 04.06.20 at 6:37 pm

#15 Leigh on 04.06.20 at 5:14 pm
According to this leading scientist in epidemiology; social distancing has prevented a herd immunity from developing among the 80% of younger people who had a better chance of developing antibodies against Covid-19

https://files.ontario.ca/po-covid-19-technical-briefing-en-2020-04-03.pdf?_ga=2.213707796.1084526040.1586104468-530662726.1585619471

Anyone under 30 and in good health should get back to work.

#67 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 6:38 pm

#18 Sail Away on 04.06.20 at 5:18 pm
Hey Shawn Allen,

As it’s turning out, the impact of the Corv seems closer to my expectation than yours.

Does that mean your opinion was idiotic?
////////////

Nope. Still you.

#68 BlogDog123 on 04.06.20 at 6:41 pm

When times were good, I saw a leftover ATM receipt that said:

Withdraw $40: Insufficient funds.

So if you don’t have lots of money, it comes down to some hard choices like living with someone else, get another job you really don’t want, etc…

I guess those displaced Canadian workers who cannot work are not likely to replace these migrant farm workers. Different skill-set or work ethic or pay expectations?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/canada-lifts-travel-restrictions-for-foreign-workers-1.5505579

#69 Lost...but not leased on 04.06.20 at 6:43 pm

#47 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 6:15 pm
I’ve noticed a lot of neighbours are setting up vegetable gardens this year. Anyone else seeing that?

=================

Thank them 4 their service…

The LIEberal party needs to replenish their brain trust ranks.

Carrots represent Ontario….Rutabagas represent Quebec….

Its all good !!!!

#70 Figure it Out on 04.06.20 at 6:44 pm

Lookin’ good, Garth

https://www.macleans.ca/society/technology/what-google-data-says-about-canadian-vs-u-s-social-distancing-efforts/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGVSIkEi3mM&feature=youtu.be&t=33

#71 NFN_NLN on 04.06.20 at 6:44 pm

Garth can you do another online poll.

I’d like to know the percentage of doomers that are:

1. Short sellers greedily trying to push the market down further.
2. Failed short sellers that missed out and are trying to ride late.
3. Confused rubes.

#72 NFN_NLN on 04.06.20 at 6:46 pm

How to survive a pandemic:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/king-of-thailand-isolates-from-coronavirus-with-20-women/

#73 Sydneysider on 04.06.20 at 6:46 pm

Have you been wondering why 3.5% milk is running low in the stores?

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/dairy-farmers-dumping-milk-covid-19-200219238.html

#74 YouKnowWho on 04.06.20 at 6:47 pm

This blog is so uplifting, you’ve put me in the mood for some love making tonight Garth.

Reach out and touch someone!

#75 Trojan House on 04.06.20 at 6:47 pm

#67 NFN_NLN on 04.06.20 at 6:37 pm

From the CDC:

“Results are for the identification of 2019-nCoV RNA. The 2019-nCoV RNA is generally detectable in upper and lower respiratory specimens during infection. Positive results are indicative of active infection with 2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease. Laboratories within the United States and its territories are required to report all positive results to the appropriate public health authorities.”

Report released March 30th:

https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download

Not sure where that Ontario report is going.

#76 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 6:50 pm

#68 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 6:38 pm
#18 Sail Away on 04.06.20 at 5:18 pm

Hey Shawn Allen,

As it’s turning out, the impact of the Corv seems closer to my expectation than yours.

Does that mean your opinion was idiotic?

—————–

Nope. Still you.

—————–

Not bad, Penny, not bad. It was a lobbed softball, but you did hit it.

#77 John in Mtl on 04.06.20 at 6:53 pm

Garth, that’s all good and swell; can you eventually elaborate (in a future article perhaps) on what you see as **consequences** of the pandemic and the humongous amounts of “money” injected into the markets and main street? I mean, I get the markets are forward looking but surely there will be **repercussions** of all this for a few years into the future.

That we’ll recover and return to some sort of normalcy is a sure thing, what do you envision for the future of business and life in Canada?

Thanks for all the time you spend on speaking your mind and enlightening us folks. Much appreciated. Not a MSU, I really mean what I say!

#78 Doghouse Dweller on 04.06.20 at 6:53 pm

#16 Keen Reader
So how is everyone readjusting their portfolios meanwhile?
————————————————————
They be historically fluffing asset values . I be taking profits and getting the hell out of Dodge.
Not much fluffing happening with my ZDV -28.35% YTD. I guess Poloz isn`t “spending” Ha! enough yet. But the shinny stuff is overwhelming any losses. Oh ya , forgot he don`t have any.
ZEQ, ZDM~ -15% YTD.
Why ditch XWD soon (cristallizing losses?) Its the most diversified thing you own and only -12% YTD. Ditch the bond funds , call it an education fee ,only forward losses to be had from the return to ZIRP and the bond down grade liquidation vortex at hand.

#79 Barb on 04.06.20 at 6:55 pm

So nice to read the phrase “the end of the beginning…”

There’s lots of “available” money out there, waiting to go into the market. H has been itchin’ too. Perhaps the noisiest doom and gloom people here might be happier participating in a non-financial site?

Thank you, Garth, for being a psychiatrist to the minions.

#80 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.06.20 at 7:01 pm

This is the link to the actual data that the Ontario Govt. based their projection models on. This is what we shut the economy down for. It was really hard to find, but I found it.

So….. Pay attention to the “case fatality death rate” broken down by age. Note this rate is based on the number of cases confirmed by testing, not the actual number of people who are actually infected. Because we have no way to know. I’m sure the actual number of infected is understated by a factor of 10.

But the spin is that they’re actually patting themselves on the back.

https://files.ontario.ca/po-covid-19-technical-briefing-en-2020-04-03.pdf

#81 Kilt on 04.06.20 at 7:03 pm

Garth kind of nailed this one.

Looking at the latest numbers out of Canada and World. Keeping in mind a few data points don’t make a trend, but this thing is over.

Curves are flattening everywhere. And it doesn’t appear to be associated with testing limitations.

You might have a few late stage places like India, Brazil, Turkey and Russian that could pump out big numbers and make the news for a few weeks. Japan’s number are also starting to climb.

Local governments could drag this out for another six weeks, anything more and they will be doing more harm than good. Social distancing works, but I’m sure you could achieve the same effect without shuttering half the businesses.

Best to get those 6%+ dividends while you can.

Kilt.

#82 the Jaguar on 04.06.20 at 7:08 pm

Why is that big orange fluff ball being carried by a Swede? He’s adorable, ( the dog not the Swede), but doesn’t look very happy.

Talked a neighbour off the ‘ledge’ this afternoon after coming across him sunning himself on a patio. Was able to do so from a safe distance, natch. He was hand wringing about his investment portfolio.
“Don’t look, Ethel”, I said. “By the time mutts like you figure out the market is doing a nose dive it’s too late anyway”. “The worst thing to ever do is run for the exits”. “Sit tight, remember your mother’s advice about a watched pot never boiling, and make the most of the extra time you now have on your hands”. “Watch an uplifting movie or read a similar book.” All classic Jaguar advice on finances, life and love.
A great one (book) is entitled “At All Costs”, by Sam Moses. Available as an audio book from Amazon and all about Operation Pedestal, the great convoy mission to Malta during the Second World War. All about real human sacrifice, survival and heroism.
Now somebody cut that orange fluff ball loose………….

#83 akashic record on 04.06.20 at 7:12 pm

As the U of Pittsburgh announced a POTENTIAL Covid vaccine Monday.

May arrive to doctor’s office by the time the economy recovered.

#84 Attrition on 04.06.20 at 7:16 pm

Sold all equities in early March and bought back in today. Missed the 20% pop, but cest la vie. Expecting more bottoms to come, but all this market obsessing has bored me.

Plus, I don’t like what I’ve become: a wannabe market watcher, stock picker, market timer. That ain’t investing and it takes too much attention–and for what? A few extra bones ten years down the road? I repeat: not worth the energy.

Besides, it’s dirt biking, fishing, 4x4ing, gardening and (almost) BBQing season in these parts. I got a carburetor to rebuild and some clutch disks to replace on one of my old Betas. Way more interesting and rewarding.

I sold high and bought back in lower, so good enough for me. Now I’ll set and forget for a few years. It’s money I shouldn’t need for 15 years minimum, so I’ll check back then. Maybe.

Oh, and I’m done with ETFs. They cause needless anxiety. Are they leveraged? Are the gonna fold? Who gets paid first?Too many what if’s.

No thanks.

So in addition to still holding a goodly chunk of cash and an emergency LOC just in case (plus a few GICs in TFSA, sorry Garth) I went to bank-issued US and Canadian index funds. Might add an international one if things go further south.

I can live with 0.7% MERs. Canada might be a dog for a few more years, but I’m disinclined to ever bet against the USA.

By my reasoning, all the stimulus has to find its way to companies and assets. I could ignore that, complain about private profit and public risk, shake a first at the unfairness of it all, or I could grab a little chunk for myself.

Why let only the rich get richer?

#85 BrianT on 04.06.20 at 7:16 pm

Obviously about 80% of the Canadian public enjoys prison life (my government loves me and cares about me just like my Mommy) and 20% doesn’t. Unless you are a feminized child you are in the minority in 2020 Canada-it is what it is.

#86 Dolce Vita on 04.06.20 at 7:22 pm

Excellent.

#87 Flop... on 04.06.20 at 7:24 pm

#52 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 6:15 pm
I’ve noticed a lot of neighbours are setting up vegetable gardens this year. Anyone else seeing that?

/////////////////////////

Just tried to help my Mother in law get set up for the growing season today.

They want to expand,and she was curious as too which common vegetables she could plant from their own seeds.

I think the motivation is not so much the cost savings but more the current waiting in line to purchase stuff they could be growing.

I showed her this.

https://www.realfoodhomestead.com/2018/02/best-vegetables-grow-seed-garden/

Then I showed her a short video on how to grow carrots from their own seeds.

I bring big black pots from new construction houses that have trees or large shrubs delivered in them for mature landscaping.

Some of these same types of pots are over $50 each at Canadian Tire and such and so if you are walking by a construction site in the city and see a heap by the dumpster, you should grab them.

On a job house last year, I grabbed 12 large pots, so they can place them in the sun on the concrete in the back yard.

They already grow lots of stuff like kale, herbs, tomatoes and lettuce in them.

They cannot drive the Internet…

M45BC

#88 RoddyJohn on 04.06.20 at 7:27 pm

#20 dosouth on 04.06.20 at 5:21 pm

Here we sit in Red Bay Alabama, waiting for repairs to our Tiffin motorhome. We have been traveling for 7 months…the last few in the states. 3 cases of Covid-19 in the county we are in. Safe in our home on wheels, delayed by ? weeks due to repairs but no “run” for the border. Safer here than in Canada. Reading your blog keeps perspective in our world but most of all your stats are at least informative. Unfortunately Trudeau thinks we cannot handle the truth…Government are not the leaders, common sense is, and you cannot legislate that.
____________________________________________

Safer in Alabama??
What are you basing that on?

#89 Tony on 04.06.20 at 7:29 pm

Re: As the U of Pittsburgh announced a Covid vaccine Monday

From what I read that was last Thursday April 2nd and the stock market in America sold off on the news the next day. So much for that one.

#90 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.06.20 at 7:29 pm

@67 NFL_NLN

You beat me to it.

#91 Peak Preparedness on 04.06.20 at 7:30 pm

#52 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 6:15 pm

I’ve noticed a lot of neighbours are setting up vegetable gardens this year. Anyone else seeing that?

——————

You must live in Victoria. We’re still snowed under. One of my rain barrels is frozen solid even though the drain has been open all winter. Strange the other one is fine, and they are both in the sun. Thankfully it’s plastic so with any luck it is still water tight even though it looks like a frozen water bottle, all stretched at the bottom.

Anyway get down to your local garden center as soon as you can, the US experience is showing that they are locking down “non-essentials” now even in open stores and the garden center is included, so no seeds for you.

#92 Faron on 04.06.20 at 7:31 pm

#49 -=withwings=- on 04.06.20 at 6:07 pm

“And Garth keeps the stupid train moving:”

Yeah, wow.

#93 Treasure Island CEO - 710.22 Troy Ounces of Gold within Bicycle Distance on 04.06.20 at 7:33 pm

Looks like a few are in the running for finding a cure; however, U of P looks pretty promising.

I might have missed the ultimate dip buy of a decade – oh well.

I took the stance and still am taking the stance of another leg down before converting my gold and pouring into ETFs.

#94 Nonplused on 04.06.20 at 7:36 pm

The last few weeks have seen well over 100 comments by now, but today not so much and yet moderation is not taking that long. Did everybody die from Covid? Or did they just decide to go shopping and walk their dogs? Or maybe there has been a new policy at GreatFool to silently delete trolls? Alternatively maybe everyone finally figured out how to reset their Netflix password.

#95 Sean on 04.06.20 at 7:36 pm

Correction. 0.055% of Canadians are CONFIRMED to have COVID-19.

The estimated infection rate is at least 2-3 times higher than this (in Canada, people without breathing difficulties are not currently being tested), and will continue to grow without strict measures (more strict than we have now) in place, as the R0 value must be below 1 for the infections to stop.

#96 conservative on 04.06.20 at 7:37 pm

Great article, garth!

#97 Stone on 04.06.20 at 7:37 pm

#55 Peter Courtney on 04.06.20 at 6:17 pm
The people that should be terrified, are the people that were prepared for an economic down turn. The govt will be coming for YOUR wealth when the virus is over.

———

Had a convo with T2 and Chateau Bill. They told me just to copy and paste how they’re set up and all will be good.

So I did.

Problem solved.

#98 Did not sell on 04.06.20 at 7:38 pm

Thanks Garth for making fun of me selling yesterday I hung on today.
Sorry to hear someone yelling at you, I know how you feel I got torn to sheds about BC should stop shipping pulp to the Americans. I am still shivering from the hate posts.

To Penny, The city of Victoria is starting a vegetable garden in the largest park in the city. First time since the second war. They say to feed the poor.

I started my garden planning last year, so far a fence square foot garden plots and earth has cost me $1,000 that’s allot of vegetables ha ha.
But heck the wife is happy so the money is well invested.

Someone wrote about all that government debt and taxes,
Basically it will never be paid off unless they inflate it away.
As I said yesterday governments may cut and reduce first OAS. Maybe increase GST.

Thanks Garth for all your posts this Month
I will make a donation in your name to the animal shelter

Look forward to your tax strategies posts.
Cheers

#99 Ordinary Blog Dog on 04.06.20 at 7:42 pm

Trying to make a mask appropriate for tigers. And trying to get Tiger King Joe lined up to do fittings once design is sorted …. what a gig! He could get furlough for this ‘essential service’, right?

#100 John in Mtl on 04.06.20 at 7:49 pm

#41 WHAT IS GOING ON on 04.06.20 at 5:56 pm

Corona is the distraction….

What changes are secretly happening to the world behind our backs?

Yep… Very much on my mind also. Certainly lots of crap going on behind our backs…

– Lightening the pensions unfunded liabilities?
– China preparing to invade Taiwan / Hong-Kong (pandemic is an occasion/diversion)?
– The rich making out like drunken sailors on all that “money”
– Fixing “overpopulation” and resource depletion?
– Getting rid of the old / sick / “undesirables”?
– {your favourite conspiracy theory here}

#101 Dolce Vita on 04.06.20 at 7:50 pm

Looks like something “good” came out of COVID-19 afterall. By one very puzzled Yale Cardiologist…

Where Have All the Heart Attacks Gone?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/well/live/coronavirus-doctors-hospitals-emergency-care-heart-attack-stroke.html

——————————-

Probably take awhile to vaccinate everyone but at least the fear factor will have subsided.

What’s puzzles me, besides heart attacks disappearing, is that from your charts Garth it seems Mr. Market sensed something good afoot.

Maybe Jung was correct afterall about a Collective Subconscious.

——————————-

Just as well help probably on the way. A few hours ago Italia just committed €400 Billion in loans etc. to ALL businesses, big and small.

A staggering amount of money that could be put to better use.

#102 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 7:54 pm

#49 -=withwings=- on 04.06.20 at 6:07 pm

Instead, we suffered through people insisting it was nothing (just 0.15% dead!) while Rome burned. Literally.

————–

Really? Rome literally burned? I didn’t see anything about a fire.

Or did you mean ‘figuratively’, which means metaphorically, or making use of a figure of speech?

#103 Ronaldo on 04.06.20 at 7:54 pm

The day of reckoning according to Mike Maloney. Interesting how what he wrote about in 2008 is very similar to what is going on right now.

https://goldsilverliberty.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-day-of-reckoning-for-this-economic.html

#104 Freedom First on 04.06.20 at 7:57 pm

Garth, I know what it is like to be yelled at.

Being someone who has lived all my adult life being debt-free, diversified, liquid, balanced, single, child free (vasectomy), in an over populated, dying planet, causes people horrific resentment.

Now, after seeing so many people caught swimming naked, I am really grateful that I had recently moved from AB to BC.

I live life even more telling people only on a “what they need to know” basis.

Freedom First

#105 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.06.20 at 7:59 pm

“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience”

CS Lewis.

#106 Linda on 04.06.20 at 7:59 pm

#53 ‘Trojan’ – Vancouver, Calgary & Edmonton have also laid off thousands of staff. Since recreation centres/parks etc. are closed, recreation staff were laid off first. Next were library staff for the same reason. If it isn’t open, don’t need the workers. I don’t know about Vancouver, but both Calgary & Edmonton news claimed those respective cities were losing millions in revenue even with the layoffs. This apparently due to transit ridership taking a big dive. There have been announcements of temporary service cuts to the public transit systems in response to the drop in ridership.

#107 akashic record on 04.06.20 at 8:00 pm

#52 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 6:15 pm

I’ve noticed a lot of neighbours are setting up vegetable gardens this year. Anyone else seeing that?

I set up mine every year.
How about erecting green houses in cottages, where many of the affluent people seek refuge now from the city?

#108 Steven Rowlandson on 04.06.20 at 8:07 pm

Rest assured the public are not ready for the bubonic plague. It is 10x worse than covid-19 and tends to happen during grand solar minimums periodically.

#109 Don't eat fish medicine! on 04.06.20 at 8:09 pm

Yes, it is true that a product like Chloroquine can be found in certain fish tank treatments. But also note the recommended fish tank treatment is based on the amount of water, not the amount of fish, and it is not the same drug!

Let’s look at the hot tub. A certain amount of chlorine (or bromine) is required to keep the nasty germs and algae at bay. But you don’t eat it! If you do, you probably die.

All powerful drugs need to be administered under the advice of a doctor. Perhaps you could survive ingesting fish tank medicines, people might think, after all the fish do. But don’t try it and if you do dilute it as you put it in the fish tank. A little bit like an ounce for 40 gallons of water. Even then it is pretty stupid. Go see your doctor.

#110 Les on 04.06.20 at 8:15 pm

Poor Boris Johnson. The powers that be are using Covid to get rid of him. Mark my words. He won’t make it out of there alive.

#111 NFN_NLN on 04.06.20 at 8:20 pm

#76 Trojan House on 04.06.20 at 6:47 pm

Not sure where that Ontario report is going.

I believe South Park spells it out nicely:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixtieePLkV4&feature=youtu.be&t=0m44s

#112 Dolce Vita on 04.06.20 at 8:21 pm

#49 -=withwings=- , #104 Sail away

“Really? Rome literally burned? I didn’t see anything about a fire.”

———————-

I just checked a local webcam and it’s still there (221 h CET).

#113 TurnerNation on 04.06.20 at 8:22 pm

And yet it’s been many years and no vaccine for these. Why? From Wikipedia:
“SARS.. at the end of the epidemic in June 2003, the incidence was 8,422 cases with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 11%.[10]
H1N1: Some studies estimated that 11 to 21 percent of the global population at the time—or around 700 million to 1.4 billion people (of a total 6.8 billion)—contracted the illness.
– Map of staggering number cases:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#/media/File:H1N1_map_by_confirmed_cases.svg

– Let’s focus on the Money on this investment blog. Several unusual once-in-a-lifetime things took place late last year:
– The Repo market seized up
– Insurance companies announced premium increases magnitudes in order. The excuse? “Climate change”
– Tik Tok, as noted many times on this weblog, came to prominence and generated tons of distractive content.
All of this was perfect timing before a global lockdown with people glued their screens, a severe financial rout, and the specter (at least in some countries) of reactive looting and property destruction.
(This weblog’s lead photo of a boarded-up Robson St)

#114 Dolce Vita on 04.06.20 at 8:29 pm

PS: Garth…

You said a few days ago that you would talk about what has to change (and you have said a few things here and there into the mix of daily events).

It would be nice to get your take on that, laundry list style, economically or otherwise.

Thanks for all the economic news and analysis to date during C19.

#115 Lost...but not leased on 04.06.20 at 8:33 pm

Bore -ass Johnson…

Pre RIP???? aka bad movie plot

Patron/Patreon saint of bad haircuts

#116 Faron on 04.06.20 at 8:38 pm

#104 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 7:54 pm

Really? Rome literally burned? I didn’t see anything about a fire.

Or did you mean ‘figuratively’, which means metaphorically, or making use of a figure of speech?

———————————————

Actually, the Oxford English Dictionary literally modified their definition in 2013 to include “emphasis” even on the figurative.

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.20 at 8:39 pm

@#112 Les is Moore

“Poor Boris Johnson. The powers that be are using Covid to get rid of him. Mark my words. He won’t make it out of there alive.”

++++

The Covid Consortium …..gotcha

here’s a little poem written on a tombstone in Tombstone Arizona.

” Here lies Les Moore
Kilt by 4 slugs from a 44
No Les
No More”

God I love 19th century humor……

#118 Palpha on 04.06.20 at 8:39 pm

Canada’s top health officer now recommending use of non medical masks by public.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/non-medical-masks-covid-19-spread-1.5523321

#119 Smoking Man on 04.06.20 at 8:40 pm

I’m thinking, why does no one die of anymore:

Gun shots.
Heart Attacks.
Over Dose.
Flue.
Getting hit by a bus.

Everyone is now dying of Coronsvirus.

What a scam…..

#120 Still Happy Prairie Guy on 04.06.20 at 8:40 pm

#20 dosouth

So you’re sitting in AL feeling safe. So were we until Mar 17 when we headed home. Our daughter is a nurse at an AL hospital who has some scary stories. AL was late to start testing. I’d get back to Canada soon.

#121 Steve French on 04.06.20 at 8:41 pm

Donny: Are these the Nazis in the comment section, Walter ?

SteveO: No Donny, these blog dogs are nihilists. There’s nothing to be afraid of.

Bunny: Smoking Man doesn’t care about anything. He’s a Nihilist!

Nihilist: Ve vont ze mawney Garth Turners!!

Smoking Man: Yeahhh.. and then maybe WE CUT OFF YOUR JOHNSON!

Walter: Smokey this is not Nam- this is Bowling. There are rules.

#122 Terry on 04.06.20 at 8:43 pm

“Social distancing, hand-washing, cancelling events, remote employment – it all seems to be working.”

It’s only extending the total rate/speed of infection over a longer period of time. It’s preventing herd immunity from taking place. It’s allowing the virus to peek it’s head back out this winter after all the restrictions have ended and begin infecting people again at the same time the regular flu season starts. It’s allowing the virus more time to possibly mutate into an even deadlier strain, wave #2, like the 1918 Spanish Flu did. This virus will be back season after season. All we did right now is destroy our economies and many peoples livelihoods. As I’ve said before….this was a HUGE mistake. What I want to see is accountability from the Chinese Communist Party Hardliners. The Chernobyl nuclear disaster in the Ukraine in 1986 was the pivot point for the eventual fall of the Soviet Union. So let it be so for this Covid-19 virus for the ruination of the Communist Government in China. The world should demand a regime change there! World governments should all work together going forward in supporting an overthrow of the CCP.

#123 Ed on 04.06.20 at 8:49 pm

Stock market is a complete disgrace and fraud. Can anyone remember it going up 1500 one day and down 1800 another day then back up thousands of points one day then back down thousands of points the next day, what the hell is this? Cant something or someone do something about this criminality?

#124 meslippery on 04.06.20 at 8:50 pm

some random guy yells at me to ‘go home and stay home’ when I’m walking my dog
—————
Poor old Bandit not looking too fierce.
Got me thinking of my not so long ago departed German Shepherd. You would want to be armed to think about yelling at me.. She would growl at you.
That would set most people a step back.

#125 Doghouse Dweller on 04.06.20 at 8:56 pm

#69 BlogDog123

Origanally migrant farm harvest workers now
those programs have displaced Canadian workers in just about every service sector job available ,planting , greenhouse, meat packers, hotels, nursing homes, fast food, janitorial,retail, housekeepers and on and on .
Figures are sketchy but at least 200,000 foreign workers here working and traveling while Canadian citizens are under house arrest, and poor Garth can`t even take his dog out for a wiz on the seaweed.

You can`t make this stuff up.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/work-canada.html

#126 Blog Dog du Jour on 04.06.20 at 9:00 pm

Yesterday a friend in Ottawa was fined $700 for being the only person in a city park with his toddler son.

You would think the cops could help distance people in the grocery store instead. I don’t see enough obvious measures in place in the grocery where 10,000 customers could roam through it each day or an asymptomatic staff person could infect 100 others a day. But wide empty parks, exercising on your own, watch out!

#127 Faron on 04.06.20 at 9:03 pm

#63 Me on 04.06.20 at 6:29 pm

Stop comparing Coronavirus deaths to heart disease, or smoking, or flu deaths. You’ll be embarrassed that you said it, sooner or later.

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-is-bad-comparing-it-to-the-flu-is-worse/amp

——————————————-

Naaaah, they’ll just find a differen’t way they are “right” about something.

Thanks for the article.

#128 Attrition on 04.06.20 at 9:03 pm

#112 Les on 04.06.20 at 8:15 pm

Poor Boris Johnson. The powers that be are using Covid to get rid of him. Mark my words. He won’t make it out of there alive.

Though I generally eschew predictions of eminent doom, this doesn’t seem like an unreasonable one. Not the conspiracy aspect, but the chance of his succumbing.

Anyone have stats for men age 50-60 with confirmed Covid19 cases who enter ICU and make full recoveries?

Anyone?

#129 Bob in Hamilton on 04.06.20 at 9:05 pm

I dare anyone to tell me to go home and stay home while I walk my German Shepherd…it would get ugly real fast.

God save us from the Snowflakes….

#130 John in Mtl on 04.06.20 at 9:10 pm

One thing about this situation: If I were Google, I’d get as many google-earth/google-map cars in the streets because now that there is no traffic and no people, it would make for very nice clear and clean images of city streets!

#131 Doghouse Dweller on 04.06.20 at 9:10 pm

The number of temporary foreign workers in Canada increased considerably from the early 1990s.

Stats can 613,200 as of 2016

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-626-x/11-626-x2019016-eng.htm

#132 whiplash on 04.06.20 at 9:13 pm

#110 Steven Rowlandson
Rest assured the public are not ready for bubonic plague. It is 10x worse than covid-19 and tends to happen during grand solar minimum.

Or when a town in Mongolia had to be quarantined last year because a couple ate raw kidneys from a marmot and contracted black death or bubonic plague and died an agonizing death.

Just another food group from the “global pandemic menu”.

#133 Dr Talc on 04.06.20 at 9:18 pm

“That was when they suspended the Constitution. They said it would be temporary. There wasn’t even any rioting in the streets. People stayed home at night, watching television, looking for some direction. There wasn’t even an enemy you could put your finger on.” ~ Margaret Atwood, The Handmaid’s Tale

#134 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 9:23 pm

#112 Les on 04.06.20 at 8:15 pm
Poor Boris Johnson. The powers that be are using Covid to get rid of him. Mark my words. He won’t make it out of there alive.
—-

Boris is about to be cured with hydroxychloroquine and then so will a lot of other people too.

#135 IHCTD9 on 04.06.20 at 9:26 pm

I’m already planning for the return of normalcy, and to when the Libs ultimately turn their attention to the steaming putrid mountain of debt their cv-19 policies have created.

I doubt cutting public staff and services will be on the agenda, so that pretty much just leaves taxes. Obviously there is no way they can tax us sufficiently to cover this bill. I was thinking 200 Billion, now I’m thinking 225 by 2021, and near 400 Billion by the time Trudeau finishes up in 2023. That’ll be a record if it comes to pass, we’ll be within spitting distance of half a Trillion in just two “the budget will balance itself” terms lol!

Anyway, I can only laugh at the predicament we are now in. There are only about 16-17 million private sector workers in this country. That’s near 30 grand for every Man Woman and Child who has a job in Canada just for the principal, and just for Trudeau Junior’s contribution! Haaaahahaha!! Half of us can’t even put 200.00 into savings at the end of the month ffs – lol!

Tax freedom day in Canada is June 14 for 2020, pretty much half of what you make all in if you’re doing nothing to avoid them. There’s just no room to tax us enough, Laffer curve theorists generally agree the maximum before revenues start dropping is between 60-70%. We are not far off the bottom end of that. Average individual income in Canada is a little over 50 grand, 35% of us don’t work, and 40% of those of us that do get so many handouts that net income taxes paid are zero.

Short story is, we might finally have euchred ourselves. Best get a plan together to avoid taxes.

Or, denominate your savings in usd, quit your job; and vote Trudeau in 2023…

#136 cramar on 04.06.20 at 9:34 pm

#259 JB on 04.06.20 at 10:11 am
……………………………………………………………
Cramer could be right and if so then Crow will be a dinner item with rabbits and rats.
I tend to think there will be a rebound after the scorched earth policies have been ended. I’m looking forward to a vacation somewhere besides my backyard.

========================

Travel is nice, but there is nothing like home! I love my yard! It gets many hundreds of hours of loving attention and thousands of hours of use each year. We live in our yard much of the year. It is my vacation paradise.

I did get a chuckle out of Garth’s comment. I certainly will not be eating crow literally and don’t think figuratively. I personally see opportunity, but am concerned about those in the working world today who were swimming naked in an ocean of debt. A world of pain is coming for them. This black swan is really a velociraptor who loves naked flesh.

The one thing that will change GUARANTEED is the divide between the wealthy and poor will increase.

#137 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.06.20 at 9:34 pm

#103 Dolce Vita on 04.06.20 at 7:50 pm

Maybe Jung was correct afterall about a Collective Subconscious.

—-

Sorry I hate to correct, but it’s Collective Unconscious…

#19 Howard on 04.06.20 at 5:19 pm
Boris Johnson’s condition worsens and he is admitted to the ICU and is on a ventilator

——

Boris is _not_ on ventilation. Reading guys, it’s important, and ICU is 1. precautionary, and 2. because he’s the prime minister. Let’s not count him amongst the dead yet…

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5522983

#138 MF on 04.06.20 at 9:36 pm

Smoking deaths in Canada, annually: 45,000. Opioid deaths in Canada, 2018: 4,900. Virus deaths in Canada to date: 322. Maybe we should be focusing additional energy in other areas, if we care so deeply about preventing mortality. – Garth

-It’s innacurate to focus on mortality. There’s three main factors here. Moral, financial, and psychological.

From a moral perspective, society has determined that people who perish from opioids or smoking willingly engaged in those behaviours over the course of many years even though they knew the health risks. They did this because they derived pleasure. They made a personal choice.

The virus is different. No human willingly seeks infection over the course of many years or derives any form of pleasure from it. It’s misery all around. Also, since risk is not equally distributed across all segments of society, so those less at risk have a moral duty to protect those more at risk by not spreading it.

Financially speaking, we derive financial benefit from cigarettes and opioids in the form of tax revenue and jobs.

The virus has little to no financial benefit, unless you sell toilet paper and purell. Our economy depends on people interacting with each other in airports, the mall, restaurants, theatres, and on and on. If let unchecked, the virus would just spread uncontrollably in these settings, and the economy would have suffered regardless.

In the end, psychology is what separates Covid19 from smoking, drinking, opioids, car accidents, the seasonal flu and everything else thatc carries a mortality rate. The virus is novel. Not one person has immunity to it, meaning everyone is at risk of infection and could potentially face the threat of immediate mortality. That’s why covid19’s mortality rate is not comparable to anything else, and so meaningful. No one feels safe.

MF

#139 -=withwings=- on 04.06.20 at 9:52 pm

#49 -=withwings=- on 04.06.20 at 6:07 pm

Instead, we suffered through people insisting it was nothing (just 0.15% dead!) while Rome burned. Literally.

————–

Really? Rome literally burned? I didn’t see anything about a fire.

Or did you mean ‘figuratively’, which means metaphorically, or making use of a figure of speech?

—–

“Rome is burning” is an expression meaning ‘big things are happening’ and they are being ignored by the leaders. In this case, the big thing is *actually* happening in Rome. As in literally, this time, Rome is the subject of the big thing.

So I meant what I wrote, literally. I am sure it is still there, looking very pretty.

#140 RobK on 04.06.20 at 9:53 pm

I’m afraid the pandemic will wax and wane for another year causing market turmoil. But my bigger fear is we may have world-wide food shortages this winter causing civil unrest and starvation on a scale not seen in hundreds of years. Mr. Market may go down from this even more than from Mr. Covid

#141 Sail Away on 04.06.20 at 10:03 pm

#115 Ed on 04.06.20 at 8:49 pm

Stock market is a complete disgrace and fraud. Can anyone remember it going up 1500 one day and down 1800 another day then back up thousands of points one day then back down thousands of points the next day, what the hell is this? Cant something or someone do something about this criminality?

——————-

Isn’t it awesome?!

I think the family Corvidae has something to do with it. They are known thieves and tricksters.

One could, of course, always learn about markets and try to beat them at their own game.

#142 MF on 04.06.20 at 10:03 pm

#110 Steven Rowlandson on 04.06.20 at 8:07 pm

There are antibiotics for the plague..but you knew that already right?

MF

#143 Sail Away on 04.06.20 at 10:06 pm

#141 -=withwings=- on 04.06.20 at 9:52 pm
#49 -=withwings=- on 04.06.20 at 6:07 pm

Instead, we suffered through people insisting it was nothing (just 0.15% dead!) while Rome burned. Literally.

——————

Really? Rome literally burned? I didn’t see anything about a fire.

Or did you mean ‘figuratively’, which means metaphorically, or making use of a figure of speech?

——————

“Rome is burning” is an expression meaning ‘big things are happening’ and they are being ignored by the leaders. In this case, the big thing is *actually* happening in Rome. As in literally, this time, Rome is the subject of the big thing.

So I meant what I wrote, literally. I am sure it is still there, looking very pretty.

——————

Thanks for explaining.

I read that Rome burned and my head literally exploded.

#144 MF on 04.06.20 at 10:10 pm

#87 BrianT on 04.06.20 at 7:16 pm

Many people, me included, are spending the time to enjoy some much needed relaxation and get into contact with friends and family I haven’t spoken to in a while because I’m usually so busy.

I’m also reading a few books and helping others get groceries (or toilet paper).

That’s not prison life.

MF

Is some employer paying you to ‘work remotely’ that way? – Garth

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.20 at 10:12 pm

@#128 Blog du jour

“Yesterday a friend in Ottawa was fined $700 for being the only person in a city park with his toddler son.”
++++

Never underestimate the ability of someone in a position of authority….to abuse that power.
Its usually in direct correlation to their obedience to blindly follow orders.

#146 Sold Out on 04.06.20 at 10:16 pm

#136 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 9:23 pm
#112 Les on 04.06.20 at 8:15 pm
Poor Boris Johnson. The powers that be are using Covid to get rid of him. Mark my words. He won’t make it out of there alive.
—-

Boris is about to be cured with hydroxychloroquine and then so will a lot of other people too.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The only people pushing hydroxychloroquine are Dim Donnie and his economic adviser, Peter Navarro. Neither of whom, I might add, are doctors or scientists.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/16/novartis-lawyer-michael-cohen-tormy-daniels-payment

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/novartis-ceo-cautions-efficacy-coronavirus-treatment

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/major-producer-of-hydroxychloroquine-once-paid-michael-cohen-hefty-sum-for-access-to-trump/ar-BB12eeHz

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-adviser-navarro-clashes-fauci-hydroxychloroquine-unproven-drug/story?id=70002207

#147 DON on 04.06.20 at 10:18 pm

And Trump’s pivot is complete: Uncle Trump?

He is still trying to pump up the markets, but now his attention is on voters.

South China Morning Post.

“Politico | Trump’s new coronavirus argument: 2 million people are being saved

Even as Trump adopts a sombre, get-ready-for-the-worst tone, he has still sought to portray himself as a hero for his actions thus far.”

#148 Renter's Revenge! on 04.06.20 at 10:18 pm

Could everyone please stop using the word “nibble” when referring to buying securities?

It’s starting to gross me out.

#149 Reality is stark on 04.06.20 at 10:20 pm

There may be one glimmer of hope that the folks on this blog are beginning to see the bigger picture. By now you must realize that the communist Chinese are not your friends.
They ignore intellectual property rights and manipulate currency. They purposely misled the WHO. They murdered innocent Tibetans. They are not nice. They cannot be trusted.
Do not give them any credence for their handling or control of the virus over and above what we have done in the free world.
Your job is to fight them tooth and nail to participate fairly in order to get access to our markets. Trump may be a blowhard but both he and Pence are right about China. Take some time to listen to Maura Moynihan (daughter of Patrick Moynihan) to understand the truth about China.
They are taking your middle class lifestyle and turning it into a lower middle class lifestyle before your very eyes. You need to fight back and support politicians who bargain a harder deal with China.
Your children’s future depends on it.
Do not allow them to expose our freedom as the reason we were slow in containing the virus.
Let freedom reign.

#150 Doug in London on 04.06.20 at 10:24 pm

@Ed, post #125:
I don’t follow the markets that closely and couldn’t give a damn if they go up 1500 one day and down 1800 another day. You should be in it for the long haul, but last month when the sale prices were at their best you could have put in some real lowball offers to scoop up some DIRT CHEAP stocks. Hey you can still put in some lowball offers now! Don’t fight the system, learn to work with it to your advantage.

If this volatility is such a real problem why don’t you get a petition going to regulate stock prices? How about a system where once a month the benevolent government publishes a list of what stocks should be traded at based on fair book value? If anyone offers to pay more than that price or sell at less they are hit with a penalty of 100 times the difference or $10,000 whichever is more. Wow, that would be like the centrally planned economy in the good old days of the Soviet Union. That would be awesome! It was the perfect system. I mean really, who cares if you have to wait up to 12 years to get a cheapo car like a Lada or Trabant? What’s the hurry?

#151 meslippery on 04.06.20 at 10:24 pm

Smoking deaths in Canada, annually: 45,000. Opioid deaths in Canada, 2018: 4,900. Virus deaths in Canada to date: 322. Maybe we should be focusing additional energy in other areas, if we care so deeply about preventing mortality. – Garth

-It’s innacurate to focus on mortality. There’s three main factors here. Moral, financial, and psychological.

From a moral perspective, society has determined that people who perish from opioids or smoking willingly engaged in those behaviours over the course of many years even though they knew the health risks. They did this because they derived pleasure. They made a personal choice.

The virus is different. No human willingly seeks infection over the course of many years or derives any form of pleasure from it. It’s misery all around. Also, since risk is not equally distributed across all segments of society, so those less at risk have a moral duty to protect those more at risk by not spreading it.

Financially speaking, we derive financial benefit from cigarettes and opioids in the form of tax revenue and jobs.

The virus has little to no financial benefit, unless you sell toilet paper and purell. Our economy depends on people interacting with each other in airports, the mall, restaurants, theatres, and on and on. If let unchecked, the virus would just spread uncontrollably in these settings, and the economy would have suffered regardless.

In the end, psychology is what separates Covid19 from smoking, drinking, opioids, car accidents, the seasonal flu and everything else thatc carries a mortality rate. The virus is novel. Not one person has immunity to it, meaning everyone is at risk of infection and could potentially face the threat of immediate mortality. That’s why covid19’s mortality rate is not comparable to anything else, and so meaningful. No one feels safe.

MF
————-
Yes
Front line workers and overwhelming the Hospitals is
is really the issue.. Not whats more deadly.
I could drive a car without a seatbelt drink a beer a smoke a cigarette and live to be 60 so far but that’s not the point.

#152 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 10:25 pm

#148 Sold Out on 04.06.20 at 10:16 pm
—-

And neither is Bill gates who is pushing global vaccinations and tracking with immunization passports and nanotech.

I will take hydroxy before I take his vaccine.

#153 Figure it Out on 04.06.20 at 10:25 pm

Unconfirmed reports this hour that Boris has been admitted to the morgue… Strictly as a precautionary measure.

#154 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.20 at 10:25 pm

@#140MF
“That’s why covid19’s mortality rate is not comparable to anything else, and so meaningful. No one feels safe.”

++++

I guess thats why every health expert and every leader quotes daily death numbers….hopeing the mortality curve will drop.

I feel perfectly safe because God hates a-holes and doesnt want me…..and Beelzebub hates my stench.
Win win.
I’m gonna live forever through the overwhelmed, offended, ofaculatory, observations of every elevator rider on the planet for years to come……because I’m just ….me.

P.S.
You dont have to sign your initials at the bottom of the comment. They’re already at the top….

#155 TurnerNation on 04.06.20 at 10:27 pm

The economy: GTA Walmarts are shutting down stored, curbside delivery only. I noted a sudden spate of appparent cases are GTA supermarkets – employees. Timing is everything. Believing is everything.
Is there a chance all stores will be closed and the Government will hand out food rations/packets to all?
This would certainly require set up of a bunch of local locations.

Things that make you go hmm.

Toronto is turning public library branches into food bank
https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2020/04/toronto-library-food-banks/
Tory said the first four food banks are already open, while two more are set to open to the public on Tuesday. The first location opened on March 25 in partnership with the North York Harvest Food Bank, and three opened this past week in partnership with the Daily Bread Food Bank.
Starting April 7, food banks will be available at six TPL locations…
Three more TPL locations are also set to open food banks at a later date…
Toronto also announced today that they’ll be facilitating food banks in some Toronto Community Housing buildings for tenants, and in specific community centres where possible.

#156 Deplorable Dude on 04.06.20 at 10:28 pm

So in BC after 3 weeks of soft lockdown our Covid19 hospitalisation is flat at about 140, available 4200 beds.

So 3% of available beds used.

Overreaction much?

When is this mythical surge happening? We’ve already self isolated for 3 weeks. Any surge should have happened by now.

So what’s the plan Comrade Horgan? When can I go back to work?

#157 Sail Away on 04.06.20 at 10:29 pm

MF, regarding the Corvid: millions and millions now have antibodies against it, and it’s not very dangerous.

You mentioned nobody feels safe. I actually feel quite safe, or if not safe, at least fully willing to accept the consequences.

But then I’m not a pantywaist.

#158 Steven Nicolle on 04.06.20 at 10:30 pm

Everyone should just chill and relax. We are getting paid to stay home. Duh? After this is over everything will return back. Just relax, nothing we can do about it. Read a book. Spend time with your spouse and kids. Use the phone and call people. Pretend it’s 1988 again. Relax people. Stop worrying about this politician or that one. This is a pandemic. It happens.

#159 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 10:32 pm

What will it take for people to wake up to what Canada is becoming. Geezus a socialist used to be just a guy who wanted a better dental plan, now its full on fealty to communist china.

Huawei sending millions of masks to Canada as supplies grow short
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-huawei-sending-millions-of-masks-to-canada-as-supplies-grow-short/

#160 Figure it Out on 04.06.20 at 10:33 pm

“Obviously there is no way they can tax us sufficiently to cover this bill. I was thinking 200 Billion …”

The ten year Canada is at about %0.60 right now, so we can float $200B at a cost of $1.2B/year. Interest only, because we won’t be paying off the principal. If the market gets antsy and bond prices drop/rates rise, our central bank can just buy back the bonds. Rates fall, and we’re no longer paying net interest. Our dollar shouldn’t do too badly, what with the US printing $4T, and the UK, Japan etcetera joining in.

I think they used to call it MMT, back when it was something we couldn’t possibly do.

#161 VicPaul on 04.06.20 at 10:36 pm

#24 Dave on 04.06.20 at 5:27 pm
And why isn’t anyone talking about the incompetence of the WHO?
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/04/02/China-Secrecy-Pandemic/

*********

Sadly, I have recently lost the last vestige of repect/hope I had for global organizations like the WHO, who have been going out of their way to congratulate China on their handling of the virus (…?)(and days ago allowed China a seat on a regional Human Rights Council (WTF?)…..and two months ago, a high-ranking U.N. official spoke out (aka, shot his uninformed mouth off) re: the native rail blockades – quickly falling into the identity-politic speak of the decade, it’s racist! When informed that 20 of the 20 aboriginal groups along the pipeline route had signed legal agreements he was quoted as saying he “wasn’t aware of that.” Hmm, don’t know the facts, but feel qualified/entitled to cast accusations of racism from your country in Africa…how the F is that type of misinformed rhetoric helpful behaviour from trusted(?) officials?

M56BC

#162 the Jaguar on 04.06.20 at 10:46 pm

This is so good I need to share it. Obviously the focus on the americans and their economic and stimulous programs, but parallels can easily be drawn. He makes some very good points.
It makes me feel optimistic.

https://www.hoover.org/research/kevin-warsh-and-long-road-back-economic-recovery

#163 Toni on 04.06.20 at 10:50 pm

My neighbor diagnosed with cancer a few months ago just told me that he goes to the hospital regularly for his treatments. The cancer wing is packed, the rest is a desert zone.
Thanks Garth for your daily wisdom!!

#164 Ronaldo on 04.06.20 at 10:51 pm

#38 Toronto_CA on 04.06.20 at 5:54 pm

What was the point of fighting wars for freedom if we are under martial law and house arrest based on faulty science and unknowns?
————————————————————–
EVENT 201

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

#165 Attrition on 04.06.20 at 10:57 pm

#144 MF on 04.06.20 at 10:03 pm

#110 Steven Rowlandson on 04.06.20 at 8:07 pm

There are antibiotics for the plague..but you knew that already right?

MF

Heh…gold.

Oh oh oh…can I answer?

Here goes: the answer is no. No, he didn’t.

#166 Drama Queens on 04.06.20 at 11:32 pm

Smoking deaths in Canada, annually: 45,000. Opioid deaths in Canada, 2018: 4,900. Virus deaths in Canada to date: 322. Maybe we should be focusing additional energy in other areas, if we care so deeply about preventing mortality.

AGREED. The masses just seem to enjoy the panic & hysteria! Nobody knows what to buy or sell but they all love to buy the propaganda!

#167 Keyboard Smasher on 04.06.20 at 11:54 pm

Boy I thought Canadian energy was dirt cheap before the crash… Picking up cash flow for dimes on the dollar currently.

#168 Fortune500 on 04.07.20 at 12:03 am

Continuing on the ‘good news front’ for Covid, a new drug called EIDD-2801 has also shown a great deal of promise as a treatment. They need a marketing department to work on that name though …

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/06/828322576/promising-drug-on-the-horizon-for-covid-19

#169 AACI Homedog on 04.07.20 at 12:07 am

Sail away…did you used to be the “Freedom First” personna?

#170 Not So New guy on 04.07.20 at 12:38 am

Ottawa also said they were losing $1 million per week in revenue from everything being closed.

====================================

I wonder if the business hating commies that inhabit a good portion of our governments will finally clue in as to where their revenue comes from and who they need to support in order for us all to prosper?

#171 Nonplused on 04.07.20 at 1:06 am

Everybody please don’t be doing virology. Not your forte. Nobody knows what this thing is except the Chinese, and they aren’t saying but wow what a reaction, and the western intelligence agencies who have been spying on China and well, wow, what a reaction. When was the last time you saw something like this? Well, you haven’t. The world wide reaction indicates that maybe they know something we don’t. And please understand “they” have lots of people who know a lot more about virology than you do. And they are all shitting bricks.

#172 NFN_NLN on 04.07.20 at 1:08 am

#146 MF on 04.06.20 at 10:10 pm

I’m also reading a few books and helping others get groceries (or toilet paper).

That’s not prison life.

MF

Is some employer paying you to ‘work remotely’ that way? – Garth

Welcome to Trudeau’s new workforce. Go to EI.

#173 NFN_NLN on 04.07.20 at 1:10 am

#148 Sold Out on 04.06.20 at 10:16 pm

The only people pushing hydroxychloroquine are Dim Donnie and his economic adviser, Peter Navarro. Neither of whom, I might add, are doctors or scientists.

The one thing you don’t misrepresent is your name, lol.

#174 Not So New guy on 04.07.20 at 1:12 am

It’s surprising how fast you can brainwash a population

#175 BS on 04.07.20 at 2:01 am

#148 Sold Out on 04.06.20 at 10:16 pm

The only people pushing hydroxychloroquine are Dim Donnie and his economic adviser, Peter Navarro. Neither of whom, I might add, are doctors or scientists.

Looks like there are a few more people who are pushing it.

Detroit Dem says Trump’s touting of hydroxychloroquine helped save her life

A Democratic state representative from Detroit has recovered from coronavirus and she says it was the combination of the drug hydroxychloroquine and President Trump that saved her life…”It has a lot to do with the president … bringing it up,” Whitsett said in an interview with the Detroit Free Press. “He is the only person who has the power to make it a priority.”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/detroit-dem-says-trumps-touting-of-hydroxychloroquine-helped-save-her-life

Then you have the doctors

LA doctor seeing success with hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19

“Every patient I’ve prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free,” Dr. Anthony Cardillo told Eyewitness News in Los Angeles. “So clinically I am seeing a resolution.”

LA doctor seeing success with hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19

And the medical societies

Medical group endorses anti-malarial drug treatment for coronavirus patients

America’s major medical society specializing in the treatment of respiratory diseases has endorsed using hydroxychloroquine for seriously ill hospitalized coronavirus patients.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/medical-group-backs-giving-hydroxychloroquine-to-coronavirus-patients/

Sold Out you are reading too much fake news. Turn off CNN.

#176 BS on 04.07.20 at 2:15 am

#148 Sold Out on 04.06.20 at 10:16 pm

You have to get off the fake news. Hydroxychloroquine is a generic drug. Anyone can make it and a full treatment for a patient is $20 retail price. There is no money to be made off this stuff. Novartis has already donated all its supply.

Still, generic manufacturers have already made commitments to ramp up production of hydroxychloroquine. In her note, Fadia wrote that Amneal Pharmaceuticals (AMRX) has said it will make 20 million pills by mid-April, Mylan (MYL) could provide 50 million pills using the ingredients it has available, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA) will ship 6 million pills by the end of March and more than 10 million in total within a month. Novartis (NVS) subsidiary Sandoz has said it will donate 130 million doses if the drug is approved for Covid-19 patients

https://www.barrons.com/articles/hydroxychloroquine-generic-drugmakers-demand-spikes-covid-19-french-study-lupus-51585056712

#177 Steve French on 04.07.20 at 2:16 am

Give it to us straight up, no chaser Smoking Man:

What did the Doc say?

How long you got?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJs2eCqhTN0

#178 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 04.07.20 at 3:59 am

#263 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 11:01 am
#249 Jack Rabbit Johannsen on 04.04.20 at 9:04 am
——————
“Similar in some respects to one of my heroes: Dick Proennekke, who built a cabin in the Alaskan bush in his 50’s and kept detailed records:”

————————————————————–

You both may be interested in checking the YouTube videos of Shawn James, My Self Reliance.

Shawn James, now 50 years, lives in Ontario, started building a cabin in the woods in 2017 using mostly hand tools with the occasional use of a chainsaw when needed. Lost his business during the financial crisis of 2008 and ended up $700,000 in debt. Rebuilt the business long enough to pay off the debt, then escaped urban and corporate life. Dick Proenneke is his hero and inspiration too.

James has a website with his story on it but the rest is in great need of updating. His goal is to be as self reliant as possible but focuses on earning his income now from his YouTube channels and some branded merchandise sales.

My Self Reliance shows the videos of his cabin builds, followed by his outdoor kitchen, sauna bathhouse, cabin addition and his adorable dog, Cali. Initially the videos were just him working, no talk, but he started giving some verbal explanations and updates in some videos. Interesting to see his techniques and try to figure out what he is making. He sold the urban house recently and he and his wife now live full-time at the cabin.

His other YouTube channel, Shawn James, contains brief 10-minute videos of talk where he explains his motivations and thoughts on various topics, both his work and what’s happening in the world.

My Self Reliance:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIMXKin1fXXCeq2UJePJEog

Shawn James:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5L_M7BF5iait4FzEbwKCAg/

For a quick look, here is two years of cabin build condensed very rapidly into a 5 minute video. The whole series was interesting to watch though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmYCUljsrDg

#179 Not So New guy on 04.07.20 at 8:07 am

This whole covid thing is like our culture trying to take a historical selfie so that we can be remembered for something

#180 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.20 at 8:14 am

@#160 Steven Nicolle

“We are getting paid to stay home. Duh? After this is over everything will return back.”

++++

Obviously your reading and comprehension are on two opposing sides.
“We are being paid to stay home……”….duuuuuuuh,

The economy will not “return back” to normal.
You dont lay everyone off and shut everything down in the world for a month without severe economic ramifications.
The posing politicians dont care.
They still collect a pay cheque.
They still toss billions of taxpayer $$$$ into the jobless fire to look good and get re-elected.
Or did you miss that part? $190 billion dollars to be spent over the next year in Canada alone.
$190 billion in extra taxes you and I will have to pay.
Our dollar will be worth less than the toilet paper you so obviously covet. And you cant wipe your ass with a loonie.
The virus may be a big zero for 95% of the population but the melting economy turning to zero isnt.
Duuuuuuh.

#181 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.20 at 8:21 am

@#174 NFL
“Welcome to Trudeau’s new workforce. Go to EI.”

+++

No no.
EI is so Boomer.

Lets call it a “Living income for all” because its 2020 .

And we’ll all put on pink T-shirts and dance around a campfire to celebrate the eradication of all things bad and mean.

Hurray we eradicated poverty and bullying and global warming and anti everything.
Good job everyone!

#182 BrianT on 04.07.20 at 8:38 am

Italy and Spain have been the worst hit by the virus-they ran the numbers the other day and this virus will not even make a dent in the life expectancy advantage Italians have over Americans. The sky is falling!The sky is falling! Help me Mommy! (or Bill Gates).

#183 OK, Doomer on 04.07.20 at 8:46 am

Just caught Dr. Oz on the tube. He said that he contaced a colleague who treats lupus patients to ask him about the safety of #TrumpPills.

The colleague has been prescribing them for decades to his 800 lupus patients with ZERO harmful side effects. He also stated that ZERO of his patients have contracted COVID so far.

Now that Dr. Oz is onboard with handing out #TrumpPills two things are over:

1. COVID

2. Dr. Oz’s TV career.

#184 Howard on 04.07.20 at 8:54 am

#139 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.06.20 at 9:34 pm

Boris is _not_ on ventilation. Reading guys, it’s important, and ICU is 1. precautionary, and 2. because he’s the prime minister. Let’s not count him amongst the dead yet…

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5522983

————————————-

You are correct and I apologize for that bit of misinformation. Indeed according to the BBC he is not a ventilator. And thank goodness, since the Covid survival rate is quite low for those requiring ventilation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52201048

Hearing Boris was seriously ill hit me hard. In a world of stateless globalist elite who don’t give a damn about their own people, it’s rare to see a leader who actually cares about the citizenry and THEIR desires (general cynism about politicians aside) as opposed to the desires of Davos.

#185 OK, Doomer on 04.07.20 at 8:58 am

Watch Dr. Oz kill off his TV career but help save thousands of lives with #TrumpPills

TDS sufferers will not let him get away with this heresy. He must be punished.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6147715065001#sp=show-clips

#186 Phylis on 04.07.20 at 9:03 am

Some asked about the next shortages we expect to see. I didn’t notice any guesses, so here’s one. I expect to see a shortage of participant ribbons.

#187 Phylis on 04.07.20 at 9:11 am

#179 Steve French on 04.07.20 at 2:16 am I think he did already. You just had to read it from the mind he explained it with. Go back and check.

#188 Smoking Man on 04.07.20 at 9:27 am

179 Steve French on 04.07.20 at 2:16 am
Give it to us straight up, no chaser Smoking Man:

What did the Doc say?

How long you got?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJs2eCqhTN0
…….

6 to 18 months…. Sucks.

#189 Dharma Bum on 04.07.20 at 9:28 am

#64 Deplorable Dude

How quickly we’ve turned into a Police State.
——————————————————————–

I’m getting t-shirts made up that say:
RESIST THE VIRUS NAZI GESTAPO BASTARDS!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QP5X6fcukM

The cops are a joke. I think that withdrawal from all the closed down Tim Horton’s have further addled their already small brains.

#190 Ustabe on 04.07.20 at 9:29 am

#188 Phylis on 04.07.20 at 9:03 am

Some asked about the next shortages we expect to see. I didn’t notice any guesses, so here’s one. I expect to see a shortage of participant ribbons.

So, who came up with the idea of participant ribbons?

It certainly wasn’t my millennial kids. It was their teachers and school principals, etc. All late boomers or early Z.

Like us, man. Far out, eh?

#191 Dharma Bum on 04.07.20 at 9:33 am

#140 MF

That’s why covid19’s mortality rate is not comparable to anything else, and so meaningful. No one feels safe.
——————————————————————–

Boy, you sound really scared.

It’s a good thing that the free world didn’t have to rely on the likes of you during times of imminent crisis. I wonder how you’d react if conscription was still around.

Sheesh.

#192 NoName on 04.07.20 at 9:40 am

#185 OK, Doomer on 04.07.20 at 8:46 am
Just caught Dr. Oz on the tube. He said that he contaced a colleague who treats lupus patients to ask him about the safety of #TrumpPills.

The colleague has been prescribing them for decades to his 800 lupus patients with ZERO harmful side effects. He also stated that ZERO of his patients have contracted COVID so far.

Now that Dr. Oz is onboard with handing out #TrumpPills two things are over:

1. COVID

2. Dr. Oz’s TV career.

I’ve been watching this dudes YouTube for a while not than many video but what he have are very good. Lung docktor also.

https://youtu.be/Kdye8z1GoNE

#193 oh bouy on 04.07.20 at 9:43 am

Government ministers in Spain are saying they plan to accelerate plans to introduce a universal basic income, after 302,265 people signed on as unemployed last month as the Covid-19 outbreak led to a fresh economic crisis in the country.

___________________________

UBI in most countries will be one of the changes when things get back to ‘normal’

#194 Phylis on 04.07.20 at 9:52 am

#192 Ustabe on 04.07.20 at 9:29 am
Yes and who will be handing out the next batch? The stage has been set. Enjoy the show.

#195 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.20 at 9:58 am

@#192 Ustabe
“It was their teachers and school principals, etc. All late boomers or early Z.”

++++
Definitely a Z that was never allowed to participate.

#196 JB on 04.07.20 at 10:00 am

#190 Smoking Man on 04.07.20 at 9:27 am

179 Steve French on 04.07.20 at 2:16 am
Give it to us straight up, no chaser Smoking Man:

What did the Doc say?

How long you got?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJs2eCqhTN0
…….

6 to 18 months…. Sucks.
………………………………………………………………..
Smoking Man that does suck, but then all of us really do not know how long we have on this third rock from the sun. Better places to go in the end.
Make the best of the time with friends and family. Mend your wars, quarrels and then live life at full blast.

#197 Sail Away on 04.07.20 at 10:01 am

#180 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 04.07.20 at 3:59 am

Re: Shawn James

Thanks! Very nice.

#198 JB on 04.07.20 at 10:09 am

#324 BillyBob on 04.06.20 at 6:27 pm

#255 JB on 04.06.20 at 9:54 am
#190 Smoking Man on 04.05.20 at 8:33 pm

Recovery sooner than most think.

Hospitals are empty. Anyone that dies now it’s coronsvirus.

Few months ago no one trusted MSM, now they own the store…

Sad….
………………………………………………………………
Actually Smoking Man it is sad my wife has seen three people die at her hospital. She is nurse here in Toronto and there is an ethical reason the hospitals are pretty damn empty.

==================================================

Umm, a nurse seeing three people die…in a hospital…may be sad, but it’s hardly unusual. Nor exactly a statistical spike.
………………………………………………………..
Three people died in one day in one wing of the same virus. Three people two older patients and one 45 year old. That was not the entire hospital death rate for the day but come on man whats wrong with you. Jesus man the idea of a hospital is to try to save people and there is NO CURE for this virus and really no treatments. All she can do is make them comfortable while they have an endotracheal tube down their throats to help them breath. Not a pretty way to go!

#199 Howard on 04.07.20 at 10:15 am

#184 BrianT on 04.07.20 at 8:38 am
Italy and Spain have been the worst hit by the virus-they ran the numbers the other day and this virus will not even make a dent in the life expectancy advantage Italians have over Americans. The sky is falling!The sky is falling! Help me Mommy! (or Bill Gates).

——————————

Well of course it won’t silly because the average age of those who died from the disease in Italy is right around 80. It’s true that this is 2 years younger than Italy’s average life expectancy of 82, however deaths in Italy, as elsewhere, are skewed towards men who have a lower general average life expectancy than women. So the impact to average life expectancy will be minimal not because Covid is overblown but simply because the deaths thus far already closely match up with general life expectancy stats.

Statistics are hard.

#200 Slim on 04.07.20 at 10:15 am

Dr? Oz on Fox News:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQ_mrOkZnbc

To all those people that voted for Trump, just don’t expect Jesus to save you!

#201 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.07.20 at 10:22 am

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.20 at 8:14 am
@#160 Steven Nicolle

“We are getting paid to stay home. Duh? After this is over everything will return back.”

++++

Obviously your reading and comprehension are on two opposing sides.
“We are being paid to stay home……”….duuuuuuuh,

The economy will not “return back” to normal.
You dont lay everyone off and shut everything down in the world for a month without severe economic ramifications.
The posing politicians dont care.
They still collect a pay cheque.
They still toss billions of taxpayer $$$$ into the jobless fire to look good and get re-elected.
Or did you miss that part? $190 billion dollars to be spent over the next year in Canada alone.
$190 billion in extra taxes you and I will have to pay.
Our dollar will be worth less than the toilet paper you so obviously covet. And you cant wipe your ass with a loonie.
The virus may be a big zero for 95% of the population but the melting economy turning to zero isnt.
Duuuuuuh

——–

Yep, that $190B bailout will only cost each Canadian taxpayer (18.7m filers, but only 12m actually pay anything) just $16,000 each on average…

#202 Sail Away on 04.07.20 at 10:24 am

#151 Reality is stark on 04.06.20 at 10:20 pm

…communist Chinese are not your friends.

They murdered innocent Tibetans. They are not nice. They cannot be trusted.

Your job is to fight them tooth and nail to participate fairly

You need to fight back and support politicians who bargain a harder deal with China.

Your children’s future depends on it.

Let freedom reign.

————————–

Oh my. Which playbook are you quoting?

Are you talking (ranting, actually) about Chinese freedom as well, or only freedom defined within your own narrow boundaries?

Also, you missed one:
-they sent Canada millions of masks

#203 MF on 04.07.20 at 10:29 am

#193 Dharma Bum on 04.07.20 at 9:33 am

“Boy, you sound really scared.

It’s a good thing that the free world didn’t have to rely on the likes of you during times of imminent crisis. I wonder how you’d react if conscription was still around.

Sheesh.”

-Now where did I say I was scared?

The discussion here is on the economy and the stock market, both of which are being heavily impacted because of mass fear.

And what are you going on about with conscription? Last time there was conscription for a certain age group during a certain south east asian war it didn’t go very well did it champ?

MF

#204 TurnerNation on 04.07.20 at 10:40 am

Today’s Data points.

– Traffic accidents down: from a 705 area code dept:
“During the last week of March in 2019, our police service investigated eighteen motor vehicle collisions, which involved thirty drivers and passengers. During that same time frame in 2020, that number had dropped to just one collision, involving two people.”

– Today’s layoffs: Organigram, OGI.TO, 400 people.

– Popular restaurant change folding:

https://dailyhive.com/toronto/marche-international-leaving-canada-closing-toronto
After ten years in the industry, the gastronomy company says it’s leaving the country is for economic reasons.
The company is expected to close its Toronto restaurants — located at Brookfield Place Street and Concourse Level — at the end of May.

#205 Attrition on 04.07.20 at 10:45 am

#173 Nonplused on 04.07.20 at 1:06 am

Everybody please don’t be doing virology. Not your forte.

And I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that deduction, extrapolation, and critical thinking aren’t yours.

Virologists make projections and predictions and have a vested interest (their jobs, incomes and self esteem) that isn’t easy to overcome and shouldn’t be ignored.

They can be unaware of it themselves, yet this bias can cause them to double down on doom and gloom predictions, and downplay good news.

The virus will do its thing despite virologists. And much like a virus, blog dawgs will do ours…

#206 Ejeff on 04.07.20 at 10:45 am

I’ve never posted here before, but this video is interesting. Who is benefiting from all these scare tactics? Of course big pharma will at the end of the day.

https://youtu.be/modKe1XeFL4

#207 not 1st on 04.07.20 at 10:49 am

Why were ETFs hit harder than individual stocks this go around? Is it because there are lots of twitchy mom and pop holders in these who dump when they see their shadow?

If so, that’s a good argument for going back to individual holdings which institutional investors usually buy.

Your premise is untrue. – Garth

#208 Attrition on 04.07.20 at 10:54 am

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.20 at 8:14 am
The economy will not “return back” to normal.
You dont lay everyone off and shut everything down in the world for a month without severe economic ramifications.
The posing politicians dont care.
They still collect a pay cheque.
They still toss billions of taxpayer $$$$ into the jobless fire to look good and get re-elected.
Or did you miss that part? $190 billion dollars to be spent over the next year in Canada alone.
$190 billion in extra taxes you and I will have to pay.
Our dollar will be worth less than the toilet paper you so obviously covet. And you cant wipe your ass with a loonie.
The virus may be a big zero for 95% of the population but the melting economy turning to zero isnt.
Duuuuuuh.

Fartz, a sign of evaporating reason is thinking you know with certainty what the future will bring. No one does*.

And other than knowing that there will be, with 100% certainty, some very upset people in an elevator one day soon, neither do you.

Take a step back. Sure, stuff doesn’t add up and we’ve never seen blah trillions blah blah shutdown blah billions more blah blah, but this doesn’t mean the game’s over. Far from it.

Instead of making predictions, stop playing with your crystal balls and bite into some evidence. There is plenty of it lying around right now, and it points to…well, everything Garth has said.

Don’t just let the rich get richer!

*Ya ya, except death and taxes

#209 BrianT on 04.07.20 at 10:57 am

#201Howard-WOW-thanks for informing us that the average age of virus deaths in Italy is 80-nobody knew that-you are a real sleuth-it is not like we are bombarded with info about this virus 24/7-congratulations.

#210 Sold Out on 04.07.20 at 10:57 am

Trump lickers are gonna need de-programming, when all is said and done.

I know that these citations do not rely on your ‘gold standard’ for evidentiary support – YouTube – and you won’t read them, but there is no reliable evidence for your claims re: hydroxychloroquine.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200329-french-expert-says-second-study-shows-malaria-drug-helps-fight-coronavirus

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/30/in-france-controversial-doctor-stirs-coronavirus-debate-156889

https://forbetterscience.com/2020/03/26/chloroquine-genius-didier-raoult-to-save-the-world-from-covid-19/

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-04-01/trump-chloroquine-coronavirus-bad-science-hiltzik-column

#211 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.20 at 11:07 am

@#203 Im Gonna
“Yep, that $190B bailout will only cost each Canadian taxpayer (18.7m filers, but only 12m actually pay anything) just $16,000 each on average…”

+++
The scary version?
The majority of the 12 million that pay taxes dont have an extra $1600 let alone $16,000

Debts-ville baby!

#212 not 1st on 04.07.20 at 11:08 am

Your premise is untrue. – Garth
—-

Most individual stocks fell about 30% give or take. There are ETFs that fell 50-70% in the initial drop. Now the NAVs are still 50% under the individual holdings and not closing very quickly.

Why the difference? I say liquidations by mom and pop and small investors for survival cash.

#213 NFN_NLN on 04.07.20 at 11:09 am

IT’S OVER — for COVID-19

https://www.ilcittadino.it/cronaca/2020/04/02/contagiati-senza-saperlo-all-avis-sono-ben-40-su-60/KYwVaGiHShP3odU4dY4zx3/index.html

1. There is a shortage of tests
2. Therefore they are only testing the really sick
3. They certainly weren’t testing people with no symptoms
4. Italy needed blood
5. As per protocol they needed to test it; which included COVID-19 tests
6. BOOM! 40 out of 60 people had antibodies but NEVER knew it. They caught it, they fought it AND they were immune.

a) How many people have no symptoms and resistance? Not Zero, not even close. 60%?
b) How many people have mild symptoms and resistance? Not Zero.
c) How many people end up in hospitals and survive? P(H|S) = 97.9%
d) How many people end up in hospitals AND die 2.1%.
P(H|D) = 2.1%

How many people would die OVERALL? Only 2.1% of the small population that even needs to be hospitalized. For people not good with math, when you multiply two numbers less than zero… it gets smaller.

#214 Silent the people on 04.07.20 at 11:21 am

Justin Trudeau said”the budget will balance itself”
and is going about proving it! The system is broken
and we will soon find out! Shutting down the economy
was a stupid idea that will cost generations dearly! We
will never return to life as of 2019 but we must all hope
it’s new version will be kind to the less fortunate! Please
donate what you can….

#215 NFN_NLN on 04.07.20 at 11:38 am

2.1% death rate
330M people in the US
6.9M ceiling on deaths
2T stimulus package
= $288,600 per dead person

The US is extending the lives of people who were already old/sick by a couple of years for $288,600 per person.

They’re also destroying the lives of the remaining 98%.

#216 PastThePeak on 04.07.20 at 11:51 am

#46 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 6:03 pm

Management courses teach ways to get along with everyone.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You clearly missed that day…

#217 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.07.20 at 12:02 pm

@213 Sold Out-

She lost, dear.

#218 PastThePeak on 04.07.20 at 12:03 pm

#57 Brian Ripley on 04.06.20 at 6:20 pm
Just heard Trump (at his daily “briefing”) say they have now tested 1,790,000 people.

That’s about 1/2% of the U.S. population.

The problem is that asymptomatic people are spreading the virus and authorities (and neighbours) don’t know who those people are.

Canada’s tested numbers are far less than 1/2% of our population.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Worldometer coronavirus site maintains a plethora of statistics, including tests performed, and baselined to test/1M pop.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

USA has tested 5,983/1M, while Canada has tested 8,767/1M. So Canada has tested more as a % of population than the USA.

Many countries have tested much higher percentages.

#219 PastThePeak on 04.07.20 at 12:07 pm

Just spoke to a colleague who lives in Montreal. A friend of hers is in ICU. Just off ventilator now and looks like might survive. Doctor told him when he went on vent that it was 50:50.

He is 55 with no underlying health issues. This isn’t just a matter of sheltering the 75+ crowd and letting “burn through the population”.

I know…I am wasting my time trying to get that message across…

#220 Ronaldo on 04.07.20 at 12:15 pm

#152 Doug In London

I mean really, who cares if you have to wait up to 12 years to get a cheapo car like a Lada or Trabant? What’s the hurry?
——————————————————————
You could get hit bay a car.

#221 Orange Man....Orange on 04.07.20 at 12:23 pm

#213 Sold Out on 04.07.20 at 10:57 am
Trump lickers are gonna need de-programming, when all is said and done.

I know that these citations do not rely on your ‘gold standard’ for evidentiary support – YouTube – and you won’t read them, but there is no reliable evidence for your claims re: hydroxychloroquine.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Those videos don’t say what you claim. If you watch them carefully all they say is that the drug is not “proven” against COVID. So what? That means nothing. By the time beuraucratically approved “proof” comes along the battle will be won or lost. Yours is a child’s view of the universe.

Adults look at it and say “There’s no downside and lots of anecdotal evidence about upside. Use it until something better comes along”.

You need to stop thinking like an anti-science, anti-Trump anti-vaxxer and start thinking like Hawkeye Pierce or Trapper John from MASH.

Get on with saving lives. Figure out what happened later over a latte and biscotti.

#222 S.Bby on 04.07.20 at 12:31 pm

I wonder if that guy who posted last Friday that he was going to sell off all holdings on Monday morning really did that? If he did, he’s kicking himself now.

#223 Tony on 04.07.20 at 12:38 pm

Re: #217 Silent the people on 04.07.20 at 11:21 am

Everyone had money up to the year 1980. Had this happened 40 years ago it may have not even made the news. Trudeau shouldn’t be bailing out anyone except the handicapped and the remaining war veterans.

#224 David Pylyp on 04.07.20 at 12:43 pm

e know more than 500,000 homeowners have besieged the banks looking for mortgage deferral relief. That’s a staggering 11% of all home loans currently held by the Big Banks, and the number is swelling. This is shifting more than $650 million per month from payments, to an increase in the amount these folks will owe. And they think they’re getting a deal”

Those people with a business; who rent their location, maybe entitled to wage subsidy programs, but No one is offering to pay the commercial rent on their business or restaurant.

Even the best are deferrals.

We’re not done yet. Big Bailiff Business coming.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#225 Faron on 04.07.20 at 12:46 pm

Wow, this place is a war zone.

I wonder how many people posting here angrily made big mistakes in the stock market and either got pooched when it crashed or are missing out on the recent big gains.

I, for one, had some grumpy days because of those things. I’ve since rebalanced and set an extremely cumbersome password on my online brokerage and am going to try to whistle past the grave yard. Literally.

#226 BrianT on 04.07.20 at 12:49 pm

For how long now have we been lectured that “Diversity is our Strength”-now we have a newer virus and that gets thrown in the trashcan-no diversity allowed-one size fits all-treat a town with zero virus cases the same as NYC or you want death and destruction-everybody conforms 110% or they are evildoers-if you are in a 500 acre park with 3 people it is no different (worse actually) than riding a crowded subway car (that they keep running while policing the nature trails). Jeez.

#227 Sail away on 04.07.20 at 12:55 pm

#222 PastThePeak on 04.07.20 at 12:07 pm

This isn’t just a matter of sheltering the 75+ crowd and letting “burn through the population”.

I know…I am wasting my time trying to get that message across…

———————

I sincerely hope you’re wasting your time and the world is waking up to this being a giant overreaction to a flu.

We knew this early on: the Diamond Princess was the best control experiment possible. Hard data, you know.

Also, regarding your ‘friend of a friend’ stories: for the rest of us, your story is an anonymous anecdotal description of the illness of a friend of a friend. If we all go out to the that degree of separation, it nearly encompasses the entire world.

At the very least, assuming each person knows 30 people, your story encompasses 30 cubed, or 27,000 people, so one sick 55 yo out of 27,000. And it sounds like he’s recovering. Pretty innocuous as a whole, wouldn’t you say?

#228 Bezengy on 04.07.20 at 1:01 pm

#218. NFN_NLN on 04.07.20 at 11:38 am
2.1% death rate
330M people in the US
6.9M ceiling on deaths
2T stimulus package
= $288,600 per dead person

– – – –
Canada

Trudeau says 150 billion, so I think we can safely say 300 billion based on his past performance.
How many lives will we save? Let’s say 1 percent of 35 million, or 3.5 million, or approx. 85k per life saved. Of course if we save only half the cost jumps to 170k per person. And if we only manage to actually save say 100k when all is said and done, then we’re talking 3 million per person. This doesn’t include provincial costs of course, and really no one is counting anyway. Not cool bro.

#229 RealisticPessimist on 04.07.20 at 1:26 pm

PastThePeak: ” I know…I am wasting my time trying to get that message across…”

Most definitely. The cognitive dissonance displayed here is astounding. You can’t change that.

Also, don’t waste your time mentioning the chaos that would have ensued due to an overwhelmed health care system had our governments decided to ignore science and “just let it rip”.

And don’t waste your time discussing how it’s not a black and white choice between lives versus economy (both will take a hit regardless what we do), nor that the “just let it rip” option could be worse economically than trying to flatten the curve.

#230 Sold Out on 04.07.20 at 1:30 pm

#224 Orange Man….Orange on 04.07.20 at 12:23 pm
#213 Sold Out on 04.07.20 at 10:57 am
Trump lickers are gonna need de-programming, when all is said and done.

I know that these citations do not rely on your ‘gold standard’ for evidentiary support – YouTube – and you won’t read them, but there is no reliable evidence for your claims re: hydroxychloroquine.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Those videos don’t say what you claim. If you watch them carefully all they say is that the drug is not “proven” against COVID. So what? That means nothing. By the time beuraucratically approved “proof” comes along the battle will be won or lost. Yours is a child’s view of the universe.

Adults look at it and say “There’s no downside and lots of anecdotal evidence about upside. Use it until something better comes along”.

You need to stop thinking like an anti-science, anti-Trump anti-vaxxer and start thinking like Hawkeye Pierce or Trapper John from MASH.

Get on with saving lives. Figure out what happened later over a latte and biscotti.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Show me the science that says hydroxychloroquine saves lives. Not your belief that it does no harm; that’s not science, nor is what fictional characters did on a 40 year old tv show. Talk about child-like magical thinking.

I fully understand and support the proven science behind the efficacy of vaccines; the current information on hydroxychloroquine doesn’t begin to even approach that standard.

Trump is to hydroxychloroquine what the Rev. Jim Jones was to Kool-Aid.

#231 NoName on 04.07.20 at 1:31 pm

Does anyone knows how long it takes to receive EI self reporting pin??? If i dint report my self in 3 days i loose benefits that i never recieved…

anyone?

#232 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.07.20 at 1:33 pm

@#231 Berzengy
“Trudeau says 150 billion, so I think we can safely say 300 billion based on his past performance.”
+++

My God.
If the pipeline is any indication try $450 Billion.

#233 Sail away on 04.07.20 at 1:35 pm

#219 PastThePeak on 04.07.20 at 11:51 am
#46 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 6:03 pm

Management courses teach ways to get along with everyone.

——————

You clearly missed that day…

——————

No, no. I paid full attention and formulated this management style:

Employees have nearly full flexibility and latitude to do their job and are rewarded accordingly. However, if I need to spend my time managing their work habits, behavior or feelings, a small amount of feedback is given, and if no change… goodbye.

And especially no hidden office gossip/politics. If it happens once, a small amount of feedback is given…

#234 Howard on 04.07.20 at 1:38 pm

#212 BrianT on 04.07.20 at 10:57 am
#201Howard-WOW-thanks for informing us that the average age of virus deaths in Italy is 80-nobody knew that-you are a real sleuth-it is not like we are bombarded with info about this virus 24/7-congratulations.

————————————

Way to miss the point. Your comment about life expectancy was dumb and irrelevant – that was my point. How would average life expectancy be impacted if the average age of the Covid deaths roughly matches the average life expectancy age to begin with? I don’t think you understand, never mind.

#235 SoggyShorts on 04.07.20 at 1:38 pm

#215 not 1st on 04.07.20 at 11:08 am
Your premise is untrue. – Garth
—-

Most individual stocks fell about 30% give or take. There are ETFs that fell 50-70% in the initial drop. Now the NAVs are still 50% under the individual holdings and not closing very quickly.

Why the difference? I say liquidations by mom and pop and small investors for survival cash
*******
Can you expand on this? What ETFs? What Stocks?
VOO and the s&p500 have moved together as far as I can tell.

#236 Brian Ripley on 04.07.20 at 1:38 pm

“So Canada has tested more as a % of population than the USA.” #221 PastThePeak on 04.07.20 at 12:03 pm

Thanks for the note and link to Worldometers.info I had not seen those data before.

So Canada has tested 0.9% and the U.S. 0.6% of population.

This small percentage of testing is a problem because the Covid 19 virus is being spread by asymptomatic (subclinical) infected people. We do not know who has the virus and who those people have been in contact with.

See this page https://www.cebm.net/2020/04/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/ (Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine) published yesterday. Snippet from this page follows:

What did we learn (see the table for the analysis)

>That between 5% and 80% of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 may be asymptomatic
>That symptom-based screening will miss cases, perhaps a lot of them
>That some asymptomatic cases will become symptomatic over the next week (sometimes known as “pre-symptomatics”)
>That children and young adults can be asymptomatic

We also learnt that there is not a single reliable study to determine the number of asymptotics. It is likely we will only learn the true extent once population based antibody testing is undertaken.

That is the problem. We simply do not know in time who is spreading the virus and who those people have been in contact with. So don’t count on a quick fix.

#237 JB on 04.07.20 at 1:53 pm

#218 NFN_NLN on 04.07.20 at 11:38 am

2.1% death rate
330M people in the US
6.9M ceiling on deaths
2T stimulus package
= $288,600 per dead person

The US is extending the lives of people who were already old/sick by a couple of years for $288,600 per person.

They’re also destroying the lives of the remaining 98%.
……………………………………………………………….
Jesus your a scary one. What are your next words of wisdom? Who made you God?

“several thousand more were packed into the hermetically sealed cars of two freight trains and sent on an aimless journey, lasting several days.”
― Saul Friedländer, The Years of Extermination

#238 PastThePeak on 04.07.20 at 2:04 pm

#151 Reality is stark on 04.06.20 at 10:20 pm
There may be one glimmer of hope that the folks on this blog are beginning to see the bigger picture. By now you must realize that the communist Chinese are not your friends.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=

+1000 (as it pertains to the CCP and all components of their control apparatus).

#239 Figure it Out on 04.07.20 at 2:04 pm

“How would average life expectancy be impacted if the average age of the Covid deaths roughly matches the average life expectancy age to begin with?”

If the life expectancy of a population is 81 years, the life expectancy of an 80 year old in that population is NOT one year, you ignish plotz.

#240 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 04.07.20 at 2:11 pm

Hopefully this virus is contained before the US election. Otherwise the election will be even more crazy than usual US elections.

#241 Sail away on 04.07.20 at 2:14 pm

#232 RealisticPessimist on 04.07.20 at 1:26 pm

———————

PastThePeak: ” I know…I am wasting my time trying to get that message across…”

———————

Most definitely. The cognitive dissonance displayed here is astounding. You can’t change that.

———————

More like clear disagreement. That’s not cognitive dissonance.

You crazies believe one thing; us pragmatists believe another. Different opinions. Fully acceptable.

#242 Sail away on 04.07.20 at 2:16 pm

#239 Brian Ripley on 04.07.20 at 1:38 pm

That is the problem.

—————–

There is no problem if you choose to believe there is no problem, Brian.

#243 PastThePeak on 04.07.20 at 2:35 pm

#216 NFN_NLN on 04.07.20 at 11:09 am

How many people would die OVERALL? Only 2.1%
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

No one knows how many will die. You can only determine what % have died from those who have reached an outcome (survived or dead).

Currently, based on 381,808 closed cases, the fatality rate is 21%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

#244 Sail away on 04.07.20 at 2:40 pm

If you want cognitive dissonance, try the belief that the world is ending, the Corvid family represents the biblical end of humanity, a major economic depression is coming, and there’s no hope… no hope…

And because of that, make the conscious choice to miss perhaps the greatest financial opportunity of our lifetime.

#245 Attrition on 04.07.20 at 2:44 pm

Ha…ok Doomers (of all generations), even CNN is reporting that a new model is predicting far fewer deaths and even fewer hospital beds needed.

(CNN)An influential model tracking the coronavirus pandemic in the United States now predicts that fewer people will die and fewer hospital beds will be needed compared to its estimates from last week.

Can’t wait to see the class actions when other disease patients suffer due to having to free up beds that ended up not being needed. Hundreds of million$…

Now, speaking of cognitive dissonance, how are all you doomers going to justify and excuse your irrational and emotional responses and fear?

“If we hadn’t overreacted, it would have been worse” ?
“No one could have known it wouldn’t get worse” ?
“We acted on the best information available at the time…” ?
“It was with an abundance of caution…” ? (Gawd I hate that line/excuse for mild tyranny)

The calm and rational among you await your emotional response.

#246 BrianT on 04.07.20 at 2:47 pm

@237 Tesla-that was the point of my original post-it wasn’t meant to be a cryptic crossword.

#247 Deplorable Dude on 04.07.20 at 2:52 pm

#233 Sold out..” Show me the science that says hydroxychloroquine saves lives. ”

————-

Current French trial. Bottom 2 numbers are important. Gets updated every couple of days.

# of patients on hydroxychloroquine

# who died while on hydroxychloroquine

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/

# of dead has only increased by 8 in the last 2 weeks since I’ve been watching it.

#248 Sold Out on 04.07.20 at 2:54 pm

#244 Sail away on 04.07.20 at 2:14 pm
#232 RealisticPessimist on 04.07.20 at 1:26 pm

———————

PastThePeak: ” I know…I am wasting my time trying to get that message across…”

———————

Most definitely. The cognitive dissonance displayed here is astounding. You can’t change that.

———————

More like clear disagreement. That’s not cognitive dissonance.

You crazies believe one thing; us pragmatists believe another. Different opinions. Fully acceptable.

#245 Sail away on 04.07.20 at 2:16 pm
#239 Brian Ripley on 04.07.20 at 1:38 pm

That is the problem.

—————–

There is no problem if you choose to believe there is no problem, Brian.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Can you explain the difference between your statement above and:

There is no problem if you close your eyes and refuse to see the problem.

Cuz I can’t. But I freely admit, I’m prejuduced against magical thinking solutions. It’s one of my many failings, to be sure. Imagine the suffering we could all just ignore away, if we believed hard enough.

Hang on a sec, do “thoughts and prayers” actually work? Damn, we’ve been doing literally everything wrong. Boy, is my face red.

#249 espressobob on 04.07.20 at 3:00 pm

Markets appear to be on the upswing. This is most unfortunate for those buying incrementally on the recent downswing.

The potential profit is more difficult harvesting than selling at the bottom.

Wish I’d thought of that.

#250 RealisticPessimist on 04.07.20 at 3:16 pm

StillHasn’tSailedAway: “You crazies believe one thing; us pragmatists believe another.”

Project much?

#251 RealisticPessimist on 04.07.20 at 3:37 pm

It’s telling how some who hang out here, seem to think that if you recognize COVID19 for the serious problem that it is, you are therefore irrational, over-reacting and paralyzed with fear.

A lot of black and white thinkers, so sure they are smarter than the experts. LOL.

#252 BrianT on 04.07.20 at 3:43 pm

Nobody to trying to tell anybody not to hide in their basement in fear of the all mighty virus-stay in there as long as you like-a year-10 years-stay until all danger has passed-what we don’t like is you telling us what to do-haven’t you heard of “My Body My Choice”-we are Pro-Choice with our bodies. Respect our choice.

#253 Penny Henny on 04.07.20 at 3:45 pm

#210 not 1st on 04.07.20 at 10:49 am
Why were ETFs hit harder than individual stocks this go around? Is it because there are lots of twitchy mom and pop holders in these who dump when they see their shadow?

If so, that’s a good argument for going back to individual holdings which institutional investors usually buy.
///////////////

Based on the assumption that ETF’s were hit harder that would make this the perfect time to buy them because they will rebound more.

#254 Samantha on 04.07.20 at 3:47 pm

I think markets are way too optimistic at this point. I think the markets will retest the recent lows and possibly go lower a bit. Still nobody knows the future so if you have cash buying in tranches makes sense for people with higher risk tolerance.

#255 Sail away on 04.07.20 at 3:48 pm

#251 Sold Out on 04.07.20 at 2:54 pm

Hang on a sec, do “thoughts and prayers” actually work? Damn, we’ve been doing literally everything wrong. Boy, is my face red.

——————-

It’s ok, Sold. Don’t beat yourself up. Everybody makes mistakes.

#256 ImScaredOfMyShadow on 04.07.20 at 4:53 pm

#239 Brian Ripley on 04.07.20 at 1:38 pm
“So Canada has tested more as a % of population than the USA.” #221 PastThePeak on 04.07.20 at 12:03 pm

Thanks for the note and link to Worldometers.info I had not seen those data before.

So Canada has tested 0.9% and the U.S. 0.6% of population.

This small percentage of testing is a problem because the Covid 19 virus is being spread by asymptomatic (subclinical) infected people. We do not know who has the virus and who those people have been in contact with.

See this page https://www.cebm.net/2020/04/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/ (Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine) published yesterday. Snippet from this page follows:

What did we learn (see the table for the analysis)

>That between 5% and 80% of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 may be asymptomatic
>That symptom-based screening will miss cases, perhaps a lot of them
>That some asymptomatic cases will become symptomatic over the next week (sometimes known as “pre-symptomatics”)
>That children and young adults can be asymptomatic

We also learnt that there is not a single reliable study to determine the number of asymptotics. It is likely we will only learn the true extent once population based antibody testing is undertaken.

That is the problem. We simply do not know in time who is spreading the virus and who those people have been in contact with. So don’t count on a quick fix.

—-

You’re right Brian.. We don’t know who has it… It could anyone, the mailman, the nice lady at the bank, the policman giving you a ticket for loitering, the neighbour’s dog.

You may even have it Brian! oooOOOoooo… Hopefully you’re one of the 98% (and rising) that will recover… Maybe you already had it!

Just sayin’.. Maybe you should just hide for the next 18 months so that when everyone else is immune, you get it then…

#257 gfd on 04.07.20 at 6:23 pm

Canada Has Put Housing Markets On Life Support. Here’s What’s Happening.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/housing-canada-covid-crisis_ca_5e8b3e02c5b6cbaf282cf63f?utm_hp_ref=ca-homepage

#258 Glenn on 04.07.20 at 6:55 pm

‘The big stock market rally – which has lifted equity values in general by more than 20% – is a preview of the future.’

Seriously? The stock market rebounded by 50% after the 1929 crash before spending the next two years sinking to a final bottom 85% below it’s 375 high.

NASDAQ did the same thing in 2000 before sinking to a final low of 1700, down from 5000. Same in 2008 and same for SP.

That’s some preview you are envisioning.

Markets almost always rebound about 50% before beginning the next leg(s) down. Nothing is certain about this crash in this particularly unique environment.

Or maybe you’re just trying to calm everyone and put on a positive spin. Maybe it will work but probably not.

You cherry-picked one sentence. Add the next one in – markets can retest lows. But the outcome is known, even if you fail to see it. – Garth

#259 Glenn on 04.07.20 at 6:59 pm

Markets are often lagging indicators as well. Trouble in the economy often begins before markets fall. In this case, the markets and coronvirus pretty much happened at the same time but this is truly a unique situation.

#260 reed marx on 04.07.20 at 9:48 pm

Garth, what a gargantuan load somthin-somthin you just spewed up above! Where the %!*$#$ do I start?? So markets lost their “forward-looking” abilities decades ago(think Regan’s Executive order to Working Group on Financial Markets 1988 also colloquially called the Plunge Protection Team). This introduced a permanent liquidity backstop for just about any stupid financial engineering that goes on Wall Street. This, as well as dissolving Glass-Steagall-Clinton, opened the door for the extreme moral hazard, collusion and corruption we see in the financial markets today. (last week we saw American Airlines hat in hand, despite spending the last decade buying its’ own stock instead of saving for a rainy day like we have now-WTF!?). Now “stock markets” are just Looking-Forward-To-Cash -Injections Mechanisms of utter moral corruption which is now clearly entering the realm of corporate/political fascism. Sure, you can markets are “functioning” but, for whom? It’s one of the most morally corrupt systems which really should have died a decade ago. The current form of “capitalism” (if that is what we are still calling that?) is a “dead-man-walking” bread-and-circus joke that supports the few at the expense of the majority and the planet. In its current CON-figuration, it has proven that it won’t reform itself. It desperately requires MAJOR reforms now and the political leadership is not intellectually/morally/ethically equipped to do anything, but keep it going. It is some dark bloody magic sire!!!

#261 the day after on 04.07.20 at 10:00 pm

I don’t care, whose fault this mess is.
Why? Because it makes no difference.
Fighting the virus and closing down the economy costs money.
Money, that has to be paid by someone.

And that is, what I care about. Who is “Someone”?

“Someone” is not everybody. It is those, who can pay something, and, what is important too, those, who can’t defend themselves against paying.
The “filthy-rich” can defend themselves by international mobility.
The poor, who didn’t even pay net-taxes before, don’t have anything, that can be taken from them.
That leaves the middle class. all of them? No. The middle-classy goverment employees already live from tax money.
So that leaves the “independant” middle class.

Oh, shucks, that’s me! (well, not alone)
Old (white) men, that work/have worked and saved. At least those, who stay above the grass, till this mess is over.

In the comment section some ask, what will be on “the day after”.
Estimating, that we are only about one quarter of the population, but “they” need money for the whole population, they will bleed us dry. If they can.
Can they? Normally yes. If we are clever, only partially.

The goal is simple: Look poorer, than we are.
Easily said, but nearly impossible to do.

First,what they will tax higher, will be income. – So we work less, to get into a lower tax group.

When they need more, they will tax, what we can not hide. Real estate, cars, pets, everything, that is registered. – What can we do? Scale down. At a big loss. Sell the mansion, buy a shack. Sell the pickup and it’s nuts, buy a kia, replace the dog with a turtle.
But that won’t help. Because selling leaves a paper-trail. They will tax the sales.

When even that is not enough, they will raise taxes on capital gains. Dividends, interest, whatever you can think of, and then some. – What can we do then? Bring our own wealth to the Bahamas, to be fined for criminal financial transactions? Turn to cash and stuff the matresses?
When too many do that, they will outlaw cash.

“They” simply will not stop untill we are as poor, as “everybody else”.

To cut a long story short:
We got only two options.
If we don’t like our children, or don’t have any, we can blow our wealth away… and live the rest of our lifes poor, but with nice memories.
Or, if we are family oriented, thinking in generations, not only in days…
well, with silver under the floorboard and gold under the rosebush we still live a poor life, but our kids get a kickstart in a, hopefully, better future.

#262 Alf on 04.08.20 at 4:41 pm

I highly recommend that everybody remain indoors indefinitely. The world is awesome with next to nobody in it.

Also, bailouts for everybody or for nobody. The latter suits me best. F the government and their BS criteria