Buying lust

Jesus. I look just like him now.

Or, given my physique, more like Dog the Bounty Hunter.

“You actually remind me of Bandit,” Dorothy said. “Get a haircut.”

I wish. But the barbershop closed under Emergency Order the day before I could get there and it looks now like it’ll be May, maybe June, before my locks can be lopped. No doubt the demand will be large – as for everything else we can’t buy, hire, access or consume right now.

It’s spring, too. New car season. Imagine in a few weeks when there are motivated, freshly-rehired sales guys. Zero-down, zero-financing rates. Dealerships desperate to unload 2020 inventory. The deals should be epic and the buying, too, when a new vehicle can be yours for what feels like free – no money down, no interest, awesome price and a set of free floor mats.

Economics is actually pretty simple. Supply and demand. In a society where two-thirds of all activity of the result of consumer spending, what people want, desire and do ends up creating growth, jobs, incomes and wealth.

Lately, thanks to Mrs. Virus, demand has been squished (along with civil liberties and, in many cases, civility) by governments anxious to keep folks alive and the health care system viable. But buying lust hasn’t gone away. It’s merely abated. Growing, too. And it shall return with a frenzy once the immediate crisis has passed. Pent-up demand, relief and optimism will trump worries about personal debt, especially when money is so cheap. This is human nature.

The pandemic? It will fade, of course. Health scares always do. They’re not structural. This isn’t the end of humanity, nor the commencement of an economic depression. Yes, we’re all messed up at the moment. Politicians are spending horrible amounts of money. Some business models (like Airbnb or the cruise industry) are being crushed. Taxes will be higher. Hand-shaking rarer. Dependency on governments greater. Every big event (and this one’s global) brings change. Globalization just took a gut punch, for example. When a bat in China ends up sickening your gram in Kelowna, it’s time to reconsider a few things. We will.

But as far as the economy’s concerned, recovery is assured. And it will likely be here in full force by the autumn.

It’s useful to look back to the last time people swore a rerun of the 1930s was coming and it was ‘different this time.’ It wasn’t, because it never is. The actions of governments and central bankers – fiscal and monetary stimulus – brought sunshine where there had been despair and turned fear into shopping.

Look at cars, for example. Here’s what happened to US light vehicle sales during the 2008-9 credit crisis, and how government programs reversed the decline leading to economic recovery and a torrent of deals.

Real estate’s the same. In Toronto 2008 house prices cascaded lower by about 15% before recovering and surging. Same with new home sales, as you can see below in America. Demand gathered like water held back by a temporary dam, only to spill over and create a tsunami of buying. Shopping lust is a powerful thing. It sweeps away fear.

Well, this is what you have to look forward to. The world will be a little changed, but the fundamentals will remain. Folks still want clothes, cars, new iPhones, houses, vacations… and haircuts. We’ve all been dealt a setback, forced into a period of reflection, loss and – for many – isolation and loneliness. We’ll always remember 2020. Regret it.

But it also lets us appreciate what we had – the freedom, mobility, friendship, choice and plenty that makes this a good life. It’s coming back. Big.

Gotta go now. Dorothy’s sharpening the garden shears. This could be brutal.

                      Bandit                                                   Garth

(Actual photos, April 5th, 2020)

 

322 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 11:17 am

Bandit looks happy about those shades.
Garth’s new look, been working on your tan while arresting bail jumpers?

#2 YouKnowWho on 04.05.20 at 11:18 am

Ever day that passes, I’m more and more convinced this is all a major overreaction to a flu season.

#3 Thanks on 04.05.20 at 11:24 am

I enjoyed your post today
Thanks

Have a great day!

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 11:25 am

@#129 Marco Poloshirt
“Mandarin is not your choice language anymore.
It is a must”

++++

I guess that’s why millions(billions?) of kids in China, India, etc learn English ( the linga franca of money) as a second language?

#5 Al Bundy on 04.05.20 at 11:26 am

The real problem is that when human societies lose their freedom, it’s not usually because tyrants have taken it away. It’s usually because people willingly surrender their freedom in return for protection against some external threat. And the threat is usually a real threat but usually exaggerated.

#6 Figmund Sreud on 04.05.20 at 11:26 am

The pandemic? It will fade, of course.
________________________

Of course it will. Still, … most interesting:

“Did Bill Gates Just Reveal the Reason Behind the Lock-Downs?”

https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/04/did-bill-gates-just-reveal-the-reason-behind-the-lock-downs/

… dunno. Have-a-read. Have-a-hear. Ponder after, …

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, AB.

#7 Brave new world on 04.05.20 at 11:27 am

Yer only gonna be allowed out if you have the right antibodies and your cell phone will be used to track you. Electronic jail for the antibody negative folks! Ok that’s just too insane!… but but is it!

#8 YouKnowWho on 04.05.20 at 11:28 am

I like your optimism Garth. But no cigar on the recovery.

20-25% of jobs won’t come back. No way corporations don’t take the opportunity to cut labour costs. That’s why unemployment claims in US resulted in up market day. We know it means cost cutting.

Small business will be hurt and revenue will transfer to chains and big guys.

Restaurants will be brutalized due to no spring and summer patio season.

So will tons of other seasonal businesses.

And in the end Politicians will pat themselves on the back for saving lives in what will turn out to be a normal flu season.

This mess will leave a big scar Garth. It will not just pop back up like Don Johnson’s hair after a swim on Miami Vice.

#9 whatabout on 04.05.20 at 11:33 am

I am wont to believe you Garth, and God knows being alone in quarantine makes reading posts like this think a bit more positively, but what about the reports out of Ontario putting the short range of the pandemic at 18 months (summer 2021) and the long-range in prospect of 24 months to get out of this pangolin flu pandemic?

I just don’t see how governments can let things get to any semblance of “back to normal” economically, when the risk of secondary or tertiary waves of infections will simply kneecap us all over again.

Unless we can find some way to develop an abundant domestic supply of masks for all Canadians, with everyone forced to wear one in public spaces, I don’t see how we’ll be able to get back to lighting up the economy again in the near future.

#10 Coming Back on 04.05.20 at 11:38 am

Wouldn’t millions out of work and a huge portion of the population earning nearly nothing for months, hamper this pent up demand?

It concerns me.

#11 Andrewski on 04.05.20 at 11:42 am

Unless it’s an April Fool’s joke, cruise line bookings are up?!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/despite-coronavirus-outbreaks-cruise-ship-190353331.html

#12 Greg on 04.05.20 at 11:42 am

Well China cases dropped off and they only had 3000 deaths in a country of 1.4 Billion so I’m sure we’ll be just fine.

#13 CORONSPIRACY on 04.05.20 at 11:44 am

hospitals empty, nurses and staff being SENT HOME
==================================

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msTGeAVuSxs

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/04/04/ground-reports-healthcare-focus-whats-going-on-in-your-city-town-neighborhood/

12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic
==============================

https://www.globalresearch.ca/12-experts-questioning-coronavirus-panic/5707532

Mount Sinai Hospital in Miami Beach. Empty parking on Level
========================================

https://twitter.com/miamisurfer1011/status/1246187012073443330

simple twitter search for “hospitals empty”
==============================

https://twitter.com/search?q=hospitals%20empty&src=typed_query

Here’s my local Manhattan hospital, and as you can see, it’s a very mellow war zone.
========================================

https://twitter.com/m3digital/status/1244394788419444740

Bill Gates leading the vaccination / Digital ID2020 campaign
(he would know about viruses)
========================================

“Eventually we’ll have certificates of who’s a recovered person, who’s a vaccinated person… Because you don’t want people moving around the world… this digital immunity proof will help facilitate the global reopening up.” -Bill Gates

Have we been hoodwinked? looks like THE JIG IS UP. The misattribution of deaths WITH Coronavirus as deaths OF Coronavirus needs to stop!

#FilmYourHospital

#14 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 11:44 am

@#3 whatabout?

“pangolin pandemic” ……..two thumbs up!

Mind if I steal that and ask the Trump administration to swap out “Kung Flu” for your offering?
Seems a tad less volatile in this pc world.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-addresses-kung-flu-remark-says-asian-americans-agree-100-with-him-using-chinese-virus

#15 Sold Out on 04.05.20 at 11:50 am

#6 Figmund Sreud on 04.05.20 at 11:26 am
The pandemic? It will fade, of course.
________________________

Of course it will. Still, … most interesting:

“Did Bill Gates Just Reveal the Reason Behind the Lock-Downs?”

https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/04/did-bill-gates-just-reveal-the-reason-behind-the-lock-downs/

… dunno. Have-a-read. Have-a-hear. Ponder after, …

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, AB.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Okay, I read, I pondered, then I read this:

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/offguardian/

#16 Andrewski on 04.05.20 at 11:51 am

Too many have been living way beyond their means & it’s only going to get exponentially worse:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/average-canadian-debt-rose-2-7-to-72-950-by-end-of-2019-equifax-1.1400875

#17 BrianT on 04.05.20 at 11:55 am

I was on Oahu at an empty beach park and when we walked back to the car in the parking lot the Dog (the one on the right) was there with his wife and a camera guy arresting some woman and filming it-was not very exciting to watch-the main thing that was surprising was that the Dog was no more than 5 ft 7 inches tops-on the show he looked a lot bigger.

#18 Gail Bostwin on 04.05.20 at 11:55 am

Garth, when and how should we expose ourselves to the market in times like these when holding a medium sized cash pile?

#19 kc on 04.05.20 at 11:56 am

Many in here asking about bringing back manufacturing to Canadian soils…. You do not have any grasp on what it takes to start up, operate and make money in business.

there is a reason that all those jobs got off shored in the first place. THE BOTTOM LINE.

It will never come back to our country for many reasons. Government red tape is one of the biggest. why you think so many cheap jobs are in lower placed countries? they have to carbon taxes, and the other garbage can full of just governments to jump into.

then comes the wages, all payments, and taxes.

everyone is screaming min wage 15 bucks? ok sure factor that into the price of your cheaper stuff being made in Canada. and remember… business is in business to make money, so at the end of the day… how many dollars are left for owners or stock market share holders?

We can’t even get a pipe line to flow what we actually can sell in this country. how in hell can we compete with China? India? Bangladesh? you kids are too lazy to work in a sweat shop for 15 bucks an hour after you told them to get a degree in social sciences and be 60K in debt….

think about that and please tell me again how we in Canada can support these “bring it back” ideas?

#20 Reality is stark on 04.05.20 at 12:00 pm

One little item worth mentioning. China is ramping up production to disrupt the supply chain. They were hollowing out North American production to take 30% of world GDP from 15% and now the goal is 45%. They are already offering significant price reductions to force North American companies to stay shut permanently.
They want those $30.00 per hour manufacturing jobs so that we can replace them with $15.00 per hour distribution jobs.
It won’t be quite as easy to purchase a car on much lower wages. The west is being hollowed out and deflation is the future no matter how much money our governments try to print.
Check out the latest Maclean’s article regarding just how nice China is. They are currently buying favour with some masks, but lying to the WHO and allowing wealthy Wuhan infected residents to fly around the world to get away was unconscionable.
This will be another vicious reset. We have to get costs down and learn to live with less.
Marriage and children will only be for the fortunate. Be prepared to compete with brilliant immigrants for good jobs.
Good luck to your children, they will need it. They won’t have the advantage of borrowing against an overvalued GTA home to finance an unsustainable lifestyle.
Living artificially as we were being hollowed out was just an uninformed insane reaction of a naive SJW socialist nation oblivious to the obvious.

#21 oh bouy on 04.05.20 at 12:04 pm

@#6 Figmund Sreud on 04.05.20 at 11:26 am
The pandemic? It will fade, of course.
________________________

Of course it will. Still, … most interesting:

“Did Bill Gates Just Reveal the Reason Behind the Lock-Downs?”

https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/04/did-bill-gates-just-reveal-the-reason-behind-the-lock-downs/

… dunno. Have-a-read. Have-a-hear. Ponder after, …

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, AB.
___________________________________

come on man, sites like this are pure fiction.
read accordingly.

#22 YouKnowWho on 04.05.20 at 12:06 pm

NEEDS vs. WANTS

Has this “alarm test” been a good lesson on what we NEED and what we WANT yet?

Not only were finances in the gutter in the first place, with record household debt levels at 176.3%, but now more borrowing is the solution to the problem and you expect WANTS to not be impacted?

I’m learning how much I can do without actually.

And you know what, I’m not going to buy many many useless WANTS later on that I was quite used to, because they are useless, pointless and meaningless.

I could buy them now online if I really wanted to, but I don’t for various reasons, including not wanting to load up the shipping guys in this time of house confinement when people have NEEDs. I’m quite confident that this sentiment will have an impact, either out of choice like I am making, or out of necessity like others may. Either way, it’s going to shave billions out of the consumer economy.

And about those haircuts Garth. That lost revenue isn’t coming back. IF you even decide to cut that amazing flowing volume of hair in June, 3, 4, 5, haircuts worth of revenue would have been lost by your barber from you alone. Oh sure, he can take out a loan to replace it. Will he?

He’s a barber, likely old school and smart. He has savings. Not only will he not have 3, 4, 5 haircuts worth of disposable income to spend, but he’s living off his savings now – because barbers have them, and he’ll need to replace those savings as well.

That savings replacement wave will also take money out of consumer spending.

Many pieces. Certainly won’t be black and white. But certainly we’re not going to be roaring in the fall. Fall by the way is when people will be bracing for another flu season, freshly off the memory of what the last one was like, they are likely to be a bit more reserved as well.

What do I want for Christmas? Nothing. A walk in the fresh snow please. You?

#23 Raging Ranter on 04.05.20 at 12:08 pm

Hey #12, wrong website. You’ll be happier here:

https://911truth.org/

Weird how those whom the lockdown should affect the least (those who rarely emerge from their parents’ basement) are most upset over the lockdown.

#24 kc on 04.05.20 at 12:11 pm

19 Reality is stark on 04.05.20 at 12:00 pm

xxxxxx

wow did we drink from the same well??

#25 YouKnowWho on 04.05.20 at 12:15 pm

COFFEE

Are you brewing at home? I have been for some time. Not to save money, which it obviously does. Just to not keep dumping plastic into ocean for 1 cup of coffee. The cup is lined with plastic, and so is he lid. BRUTAL.

Keep home brewing after Covid-19 – PLEASE! And ideally drip, not those pods. If you must do the Nestle aluminum pods – but drip filterless is greenest cheapest and best without doubt. Spend your money on good roasted freshly ground coffee, not plastic or aluminum packaging!

You think people will learn to not depend on Tim’s for Coffee now? I hope so. I think so.

Revenue out of coffee shops? No doubt. One can only hope we take out a few million lids out of the trash and eventually ocean daily thanks to Covid-19 by brewing at home. If 2 million people start to brew at home now, that’s $1.5B out of the coffee shop industry alone and also 730M lids and 730 plastic lines cups!

Fingers crossed! We need to consume less coffee related plastics for a few years just to make up for all these bags, masks, gloves we suddenly seem to be needing.

Can you imagine what hospital trash looks like today?
That Indian wouldn’t have a tear in his eye, he’d have a breakdown.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7OHG7tHrNM

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 12:16 pm

@#18kc
“It will never come back to our country for many reasons. Government red tape is one of the biggest. why you think so many cheap jobs are in lower placed countries?”

++++

You are wasting your breath.

Trying to reason with facts and figures to the hopelessly economically challenged social justice warriors that want everything given to them as “a fair living wage income” without actually working for it …. all while being told “good job” for doing nothing.

Yeah, we need more Human Resources managers…..that’ll fix everything… yeesh.

As communist countries and dictatorships ramp up their disinformation campaigns……

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/politics/china-russia-coronavirus-disinformation.html

#27 Freckles on 04.05.20 at 12:17 pm

Someone asked yesterday if we personally know anyone with Covid-19.
An ex-coworker returned to Canada from traveling to Hawaii. He’s a super fit guy in his mid forties. He was completely bed ridden. Had to sleep sitting up to assist with breathing. Lost 15 pounds. Not good, but recovered.
And I wish people here would stop arguing over the seriousness of this virus, the projected deaths, the comparisons to other viruses, and the conspiracy theories behind all things medical/financial. Granted, this may cut the comments in half, but sheesh people. Let’s be kind and rational. I know, high expectations.
My job requires that I go to the office regularly, so not much has changed for me, but I know it’s impacted others greatly. I look forward to returning to normal. Whatever the new normal is. At the very least, I’m confident that one day soon, I’ll see TP on the shelves again, and I will know the sheeple panic is over. *eye roll*

#28 Russ on 04.05.20 at 12:18 pm

Hey Garth,

Save the shears.

Just learn to play the guitar, 80s metal type. You already look the part.

It doesn’t take much skill, mostly attitude. You’ll be fine.

A Marshall stack and a Gibson SG is my recommended pairing. (The Strat is much too common for you to play.)

Cheers, R

#29 Sigmund Freud on 04.05.20 at 12:20 pm

Okay, I read, I pondered, then I read… – #14 Sold Out on 04.05.20 at 11:50 am
_____________________________

Ah, yes. That TED vid published is unverifiable, … fake, doctored, I presume? It conveys information that is not always supported by evidence. Got that, …

… bah.

F.S.

P.S., … an original fake here:

https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_how_we_must_respond_to_the_coronavirus_pandemic

#30 HowDeepThe Pain? on 04.05.20 at 12:22 pm

In the middle of the storm people have trouble seeing the other side. Peaking new cases, mass testing, a treatment, and an oversupply of PPE is coming in the next six weeks.

Then we just need people to get over the irrational fears of dying. We will be are own biggest enemies on this, people need to STFU!

There is an social, mental health and economic health of not getting back to work. People need to STFU!

Corona Virus Shamers need to be asked if they are willing to have their pension cut by a 1/3rd or delayed 3-5 years…suddenly they have a different perspective…

Protect the venerable until we have a vaccine, but we also need to support small business and get back to work next month.

#31 Figure it Out on 04.05.20 at 12:25 pm

People who can shop again will shop again.

But there are huge losses, and they won’t be evenly distributed.

Drain your retirement savings to save your home or business? You won’t get that back.
Lose your home equity when you’re foreclosed on? You won’t get that back.
Lose a well paying job when you’re too old to find a similar role elsewhere? You won’t get that back.

This will probably play out similar to the GFC in the US a decade ago: The rich will end up richer, through asset price inflation. Most of the middle class will get through, somewhat diminished financially, but not by more than their neighbours. The poor will be just as poor. But some fraction of the middle class (10-20%, maybe?) will fall into relative poverty and not recover.

This is a big deal, because middle class spending makes the economy go round. The rich don’t spend much more as they get richer, and the poor spend everything they’ve got, which is not a lot. But middle class consumer discretionary spending is the stuff that economic expansions and contractions are made of. US new auto sales and new home building never surpassed the pre-2006 peak — even with a larger population and greater productivity. Ponder that.

#32 SOMETHINGS UP on 04.05.20 at 12:30 pm

NOTHING IS GOING TO CHANGE……

Except for your hierarchy of needs

#33 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 12:31 pm

Driving to the steelhead river today, my CV joint blew out on a corner.

I went out to the main road with this sign:

CV PROBLEM
NEED RIDE

Ended up walking home 12km. What’s up with that?

#34 BrianT on 04.05.20 at 12:32 pm

It will be difficult for real economic growth to return as a new real cost to investment has materialized-the threat of an arbitrary government shutdown ( as has already happened to thousands of businesses). The other problem is that economic certainty contributes to wealth creation and investment and that is gone for now-the fear is obviously what might the government do next-really nothing is off the table-just the draconian measures already enacted would have only been predicted by extreme conspiracy theorists 10 years ago-the assumption is that after smacking us in the head and taking our lunch money the bully is not coming back and we made the right decision to roll over for him-life doesn’t usually work out like that-I think it is more likely that this is just the beginning as at least 80% of the Canadian public is cheering on the bully.

#35 Dogman01 on 04.05.20 at 12:32 pm

For too many years, an elite sector of owners has been allowed to export jobs to low wage (and low standards in everything) locations. Then have unfettered access to sell those items back to the markets they are in the process of destroying. As 95% of us are wage earners this has only served to destroy the social contract between labor and capital. Not only that but labour has been brought into our market in big numbers further increasing the supply and suppressing the demand (price) for labor.
This is why we have had such a rise in wealth inequity in the West, the “value added” all goes to owners now, and not much to labor, – it is killing our society and the deal of capitalism = middle class prosperity. (hence the backlash of the Trump vote in 2016).

A just in time, precarious economy leveraging foreign with wage arbitrage where essential items must be imported, does not serve society, it only has served the 0.001% (who don’t worry about the Healthcare systems they would never use it)

“So, let’s remember. There are those among us who, in serving themselves, serve no one.” – Garth Turner

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-if-covid-19-has-taught-us-one-thing-its-that-canada-needs-to-be-more-self-sufficient?video_autoplay=true

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-its-the-ordinary-joes-not-the-liberal-elites-that-are-allowing-society-to-continue-to-function-during-covid-19?video_autoplay=true

#36 akashic record on 04.05.20 at 12:33 pm

There will be recovery – no doubt.

My barber will miss several of my payments that he will never recoup, though.

Luckily most demand is not now or never again.

#37 TurnerNation on 04.05.20 at 12:37 pm

What if…. whaf if banks begin lowering Loan to Value allowances and begin calling in HELOC outstanding balances. Margin calls.
I’d give this a 70% probability.
The banks and government seizing the means of production.

#38 Dolce Vita on 04.05.20 at 12:37 pm

Again, that was excellent Garth, just excellent.

What I have been saying from the outset, life will return to normal sure enough but it will take awhile for total recovery (I hope Q4).

Your charts prove the point.

———————————

“When a bat in China ends up sickening your gram in Kelowna, it’s time to reconsider a few things. We will.”

Ya, like vital medical + equipment supply chains.

Ensure all production done in Canada, by Canadians and with factory outputs that can be ramped up quickly for a pandemic. Needs to be done after this mess is over.

#39 Kool Aid on 04.05.20 at 12:42 pm

Life goes on, always, no question.

Time will pass, new normal will return, agreed.

Corps, large, medium and small will lay off millions, insolvencies will soar, consolidations abound.

Yes, the greatest opportunity of a lifetime is rapidly unfolding, and those with unencumbered liabilities and dry powder can feather in on these pronounced price dips over the next many quarters.

Who doesn’t want Triple AAA assets for CCC prices, will some corps will be swallowed whole at pennies on the dollars.

It will be interesting to see where the big five banks end up who shoulder a tremendous amount of risk on the balance sheet.

Current stock prices do not fully account for the possibility of suspended or cancelled dividends, some of these institutions have been paying for since the early 1800’s.

Canadian banks use to be a buy at 9-10.5/PE, not now, maybe I’d nibble around 7 PE with this current back drop.

Not the time to buy risk, not yet anyhow, imo.

Stay safe, special thanks to everyone working to assist others in these extraordinary times…that includes you Bandit.

#40 Sigmund Freud on 04.05.20 at 12:50 pm

come on man, sites like this are pure fiction.
read accordingly.
– #20 oh bouy on 04.05.20 at 12:04 pm
___________________

It seems to me, … I’m living in an insane asylum of my very own making! It seems to me, … I step outside the frame of your realm!

So, sorry, … and thanks for your nudge!

F.S.

#41 of two minds on 04.05.20 at 12:51 pm

I’m not sure what the economic impact will be.

Some, like after 9 / 11, will adopt / augment their YOLO attitude and up spending – “only live once”

Some will have had a “near death ” experience with their finances and become more frugal – “save every penny”

I think it will come down to;
1) how much economic pain they may endure thru this
2) change in net worth
3) the change in their home’s value
4) their age
5) their job status / prospects / unemployment rate
6) speed of economic recovery / length of lock down
7) their ability to access credit

While the barber may see an immediate surge in demand for haircuts – they are small dollars in the overall picture.

What do you blog dogs think will happen post CV 19 ?

#42 Dolce Vita on 04.05.20 at 12:56 pm

Garth, so shoot me, VIRUS PORN…

Since unlike ON, Cdn Gov does not want to disclose projections to the people (you know, the most educated population on Planet Earth can’t take the truth I suppose???) I decided to use Public Domain data from a more than reliable source to calculate Cdn. Projections.

Immediate gratification people, skip to bottom and click.

Background on calcs follows for the number crunchers…

———————————

SOURCE: Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
(the people that changed the minds of UK, Germany, US etc. to lockdown etc.)

DOCUMENT: “Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries”, March 30, 2020.
(search doc name in Google, PDF file)

———————————

Took their data (as they did in their calculations) and applied to Canada for projections.

Imperial College data accuracy Mar. 28 deaths (Country, Projection, Actual, Range):

Italy 10000, 9136 [8,200 – 13,000]
Norway 17, 16 [7 – 33]
Spain 4700, 4858 [3,700 – 6,100]
Germany 320, 325 [240 – 410]

Ranges elastic, I know, but due to lack of testing I think. They are using current & past pandemic data knowledge in their +/- 2 Std. Dev. calcs [the ranges]. On the testing they say:

“In all countries, we estimate there are orders of magnitude fewer infections detected than true infections, mostly likely due to mild and asymptomatic infections as well as limited testing capacity.” In layperson’s language, a lot of infections not reported, mild infection, we took that into account.

———————————

Here is the projection (HOPING, FINGERS CROSSED Canada pulls off Norway, Lowest Attack Rate):

https://i.imgur.com/1arbrta.png

PS:

I also made the same calculations for AB, BC, ON & the Excited States of America.

#43 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 1:01 pm

Ok, ok. After all the dire predictions and warnings, reviewing data, crunching statistics on cases vs deaths vs flus/colds, I revise my statement from a month ago that it was just a cold.

New statement: Chill, it’s just the flu.

Prove me wrong. Reference Sweden and Brazil, don’t say ‘will, could, would, should, etc”. Shawn Allen, feel free to unload some insults.

#44 Figure it Out on 04.05.20 at 1:01 pm

“Corona Virus Shamers need to be asked if they are willing to have their pension cut by a 1/3rd or delayed 3-5 years…suddenly they have a different perspective…”

Dude, an epidemic that mostly spares young contributors while taking the scythe to old pensioners is a pension actuary’s wet dream.

Better to talk about how it might affect life insurance policyholders…

#45 YouKnowWho on 04.05.20 at 1:08 pm

FYI

For those looking to spend on services instead of things after Covid-19…in case you’re wondering…

Toronto’s Brass Rail and Upper Brass have not been deemed “essential” like LCBO or weed dispensaries and they are closed due to Covid-19 until further notice.

They are also not offering take-out or curb pickup.

#46 Dr V on 04.05.20 at 1:10 pm

35 Dogman01

“This is why we have had such a rise in wealth inequity in the West, the “value added” all goes to owners now, and not much to labor, – it is killing our society and the deal of capitalism = middle class prosperity.”
————————————————————-

You could say the same at the time the plow was invented. Owners of horses and plows instead of farmers. So it’s an ancient argument that is forever valid but perhaps irrelevant.

Look at 19 kc and 20 Reality’s comments. Do we really need manufacturing jobs? Or do we just need to manufacture?

#47 oh bouy on 04.05.20 at 1:10 pm

@#41 Sigmund Freud on 04.05.20 at 12:50 pm
come on man, sites like this are pure fiction.
read accordingly. – #20 oh bouy on 04.05.20 at 12:04 pm
___________________

It seems to me, … I’m living in an insane asylum of my very own making!
________________________

indeed.

#48 Russ on 04.05.20 at 1:13 pm

Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 12:31 pm

Driving to the steelhead river today, my CV joint blew out on a corner.

I went out to the main road with this sign:

CV PROBLEM
NEED RIDE

Ended up walking home 12km. What’s up with that?
====================================

Maybe they recognized you from this comment section?

I dunno, just trying to help out.
I like to solve problems where others cannot see the obvious.

Cheers, R

#49 Renter's Revenge! on 04.05.20 at 1:15 pm

#34 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 12:31 pm
Driving to the steelhead river today, my CV joint blew out on a corner.

I went out to the main road with this sign:

CV PROBLEM
NEED RIDE

Ended up walking home 12km. What’s up with that?

=========

Maybe the sign was too small.

#50 BrianT on 04.05.20 at 1:16 pm

No one is talking about the huge almost overnight increase in power of government workers as opposed to small business owners and employees-the trend was continuing for decades and then this giant jump happened all at once. I have talked to a few friends and relatives who are government employees and every one is strongly in favor of shutting down the economy for “as long as it takes”-if you mention the damage to the economy they get upset and feel totally insulated from any economic pain from a prolonged shutdown (which is probably realistic).

#51 Not So New guy on 04.05.20 at 1:16 pm

I’m calling 225 – 250 and above daily comments on the Garth Turned Proprietary Market Indicator™ or GTPMI™ as a sign of the market panic/bottom.

Once it moves below that I assume that things should start to calm down.

This does not account for the Smoking Man factor. We may need to adjust for that

#52 Jager on 04.05.20 at 1:17 pm

Missing your Kid(s) being in school yet? I presume this is why the beverage stores remain open. Lol
https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1246557244902309889

#53 Grunt on 04.05.20 at 1:18 pm

Paid all the time with debit during this emergency. Wondering if COVID will begin the death roll for coins & notes?

Why should we have to carry cash around if we could just tap phones for sundry stuff like family, neighbors & vending machines? Surely the technology is here now?

#54 Not So New guy on 04.05.20 at 1:21 pm

The government should just keep it’s fingers out of the pie

The Lesson Of A Crash That Cured Itself

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/lesson-crash-cured-itself

#55 Bad Hombre once yelled at the orange menace, he peed his pants on 04.05.20 at 1:22 pm

DELETED

#56 crossbordershopper on 04.05.20 at 1:24 pm

its not that this time will be different, different happens in different ways, the advent of credit in every form has been hiding the fact that our productivity is very low, coupled with government regulations etc. I don’t see 10=20% of business ever really reopening.
this is a great opportunity for reset, business will go down their head list and check and x beside your name, just like hockey cards, got him, need him, and pass, lots of 60 year old passes,
so if your 60 to 65 and don’t have your house in order financially, your done, no reason to hire an old guy in the best of times, let alone when you can get a hungry guy at half the price.
china is playing their cards well, the west doesn’t get volume of people, expendable people, the west cant get their head around loosing thousands of people isn’t a big deal in China, they know that we are our brothers keeper, where they have a difference of opinion in the term social contract.
pent up demand that people are looking for will be long and hard, people are tapped out, the demand equation is fuelled with debt, with no new debt formation arising from the banking system and people have no reserve powder it wont happen, very low and long, no v or w recovery, I cant see it. when you are paycheque to paycheque and after the disruption, government bailout, your back to getting I guess a lower paying job, because hey employers can just rehire you at 20% less wage, why not, fire everyone, and rehire who you want back.
back to paycheque to paycheque, its bad when you have no money saved up after working 25 year of your life buying crap and using it.
people will start moving in with their family, independence will be a luxury for many, lower wages, higher prices etc. its stagflation in a new form, lower wages, yes lower carrying costs for debt if you can get it, because just because you can get a mortgage for 2.4% go to the bank and try to get it. they will be super picky. business revenue down because all the “buyers” who normally spend what they get from the paycheque will be fewer of them, 20% fewer, which is 20% less demand across the board.
so if you think the hairdresser, the clothing store, etc will just take a pause till sept and then reopen and things within 3 months will be back to normal, not this time, its 18 to 24 months before we see kinda back to normal but with 20% across the board revenue loss never to come back. permenant underclass will develop no upward mobility due to education or debt will be available. if taxes rise to 60% marginal rate, which I expect or capital gain on residential homes, or asset testing for seniors, or taxation of estates and lottery winnings will all be in the cards. 100 billion annual deficits in Canada minimum 50billion a year annual deficits due to demographics, loss of revenue, loss of immigration a bunch of older people leaning on the health care system.
go to the us, when the borders open up again, a successful business in Canada will be one where you can squeak out a living. almost everyone will take a haircut of their wealth, expectation, health, and happiness when its over, 5,10,15,20% depending on where you started and how sensitive you were.

#57 Brian Ripley on 04.05.20 at 1:28 pm

“Same with new home sales, as you can see below in America. Demand gathered like water held back by a temporary dam, only to spill over and create a tsunami of buying.” Garth

My Toronto and Vancouver housing charts are up with the March data: http://www.chpc.biz/

Looking at Toronto and Vancouver housing (two of the most unaffordable cities in the world but with 20th century infrastructure), one might think that the “tsunami of buying” is already on, or maybe that the FOMO crowd never sleeps.

But anyone on the margin is going to be looking at their balance sheet and a continuation of ZIRP & NIRP is not going to entice those to take on more debt on the promise of future equity.

And nationally, if one looks at my Debt, Net trade and FDI chart it is absolutely clear that the Canadian investment community for the last 20+ years is looking for low wage, low regulation jurisdictions to invest in.

This is the effect of ZIRP & NIRP:

“With the 2018 FDI clocking in at another big “wide”, the super trend is now very clear; the flight of Canadian capital towards offshore workers is still on and accelerating.​

Cheap capital is in search of cheap productive Labour in an effort to realize a better return on investment from exploiting the price mismatch. Clearly this is working as our deeply negative Balance of Trade data suggest; we buy more than we sell, hence we supply net income to entities outside our “borders” financed and subsidized by our own cheap credit and our willingness to hock the future.​”

But if history is worth looking at, after a credit boom comes debt revulsion and a credit bust. The large banks will get bailed out, but those on the margin will not.

Most of us work in the supply chain of goods and service. Those jobs are at risk of being automated and managed by fewer people as we move between Industrial Revolution 4.0 and 5.0

If you are young and have money for either a down payment on a condo or further education to leverage your ability to compete for higher wages… do the latter.

#58 wendi1 on 04.05.20 at 1:33 pm

A better question: how much money would it take to build enough hospitals, train enough professionals, and have enough masks, gowns, ventilators and ICUs to eliminate hallway medicine and have a bit left over for surge emergencies?

A: Not as much as it costs to shut down the economy for a year to 18 months.

#59 jane24 on 04.05.20 at 1:33 pm

I disagree Garth, when this is indeed over there will be a small recovery but when millions have been living on air for months they will not be rushing to buy big ticket items like cars. They will have major debts to pay off first. Some may have actually learned the difference between ‘needs’ and ‘wants’ and how much better one feels with cash saved for the next plague.

This coronavirus will restructure both the economy and people’s thinking.

#60 Steerage Clowns on 04.05.20 at 1:35 pm

#56 Bad Hombre once yelled at the orange menace, he peed his pants on 04.05.20 at 1:22 pm

DELETED

Geez Garth… how can you deny us that wisdom!

#61 not 1st on 04.05.20 at 1:37 pm

People aren’t going to have 30 restaurant meals or 30 haircuts on the day things resume. Partial pent up demand maybe for hard goods but service industries will not be able to recoup a couple months of shutdown.

Maybe some will adapt, offer more options for curbside, delivery etc and gain some market back that way. I would kill for a Dennys grandslam right now.

#62 Figure it Out on 04.05.20 at 1:41 pm

“Ended up walking home 12km. What’s up with that?”

It’s an efficient market. As they drove by you, everyone was thinking “if he’d really needed help, somebody would have picked him up already.”

#63 Stone on 04.05.20 at 1:41 pm

#18 Gail Bostwin on 04.05.20 at 11:55 am
Garth, when and how should we expose ourselves to the market in times like these when holding a medium sized cash pile?

———

With a trenchcoat.

#64 Flop... on 04.05.20 at 1:43 pm

Getting a haircut is one problem.

My dental appointment got cancelled.

I went to the dollar store and bought a teeth cleaning kit and took it home and started hacking plaque off.

Mixed results, but will get better with experience.

Available Monday through Friday after 5pm for teeth cleaning in Greater Vancouver…

M45BC

#65 YouKnowWho on 04.05.20 at 1:44 pm

#20 Reality is stark

Too much truth in one post. But without doubt – truth.

#27 Freckles

One example does not a trend make. A 56 year old friend got it. Sore back. No coughs. Confirmed via test. Lasted 5 days, then week to be back to normal. Smoked all his life – quit 3 years ago. We good?

Vast majority are recovering. Some will get taken out. Nature giveth, nature taketh.

Consider this – there are a lot of a asymptomatic people who aren’t even tested. What if only 1/2 of the people who had it were tested? What if it’s a 1/3? 1/4? 1/10? I wouldn’t put up with the test myself unless absolutely necessary for example. I’m pretty sure I’m far from alone on this.

If we tested only 1/2, it’s a 2.5% death rate.

If we tested 1/10 it is .55%.

But make no mistakes about it, TONS of tests were missed, not done, people didn’t bother getting the test.

U.S. has 45m symptomatic flu cases 2017-2018. Take 4% positive for Covid-19 like now and you get 1.8m cases vs. 300k currently. We have plenty of runway for this thing to do it’s thing still. And it will.

#66 Stone on 04.05.20 at 1:47 pm

#25 YouKnowWho on 04.05.20 at 12:15 pm
COFFEE

Are you brewing at home? I have been for some time. Not to save money, which it obviously does. Just to not keep dumping plastic into ocean for 1 cup of coffee. The cup is lined with plastic, and so is he lid. BRUTAL.

Keep home brewing after Covid-19 – PLEASE! And ideally drip, not those pods. If you must do the Nestle aluminum pods – but drip filterless is greenest cheapest and best without doubt. Spend your money on good roasted freshly ground coffee, not plastic or aluminum packaging!

You think people will learn to not depend on Tim’s for Coffee now? I hope so. I think so.

Revenue out of coffee shops? No doubt. One can only hope we take out a few million lids out of the trash and eventually ocean daily thanks to Covid-19 by brewing at home. If 2 million people start to brew at home now, that’s $1.5B out of the coffee shop industry alone and also 730M lids and 730 plastic lines cups!

Fingers crossed! We need to consume less coffee related plastics for a few years just to make up for all these bags, masks, gloves we suddenly seem to be needing.

Can you imagine what hospital trash looks like today?
That Indian wouldn’t have a tear in his eye, he’d have a breakdown.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7OHG7tHrNM

———

Forget about the hospital. Have a look at the grocery store parking lots. Full of used gloves, masks, etc.

#67 TurnerNation on 04.05.20 at 1:48 pm

Demand dropping = Fires UP. A classic cycle

Maybe this is why the Insurance companies massively jacked all rates in past 6 months, a little bird told them what’s coming – at the top of an economic cycle?

https://www.winknews.com/2020/04/04/fire-at-rsw-destroys-over-3500-rental-cars-port-authority-says/
A fire that spread across 15 acres destroyed more than 3,500 rental cars at the rental car overflow area of Southwest Florida International Airport on Friday, Lee County Port Authority said.
The cause of the fire remains under investigation

– This ship appears to be another prop in this world stage. Makes for great footage on our tele-screens.
https://news.yahoo.com/1-000-bed-comfort-supposed-122130789.html
The 1,000-Bed Comfort Was Supposed to Aid New York. It Has 20 Patients

#68 Dogman01 on 04.05.20 at 1:51 pm

#47 Dr V on 04.05.20 at 1:10 pm

If you are making coffee cup in Canada to sell to Canadians then everyone’s a winner. You have to compete for labour at a Canadian rate, pay for Canadian infrastructure and of course charge a price that allows a profit. Taxes paid, Canadian workers paid and a profit…everybody wins.

But if you make the cup in China, and import it in, well no Canadians working, no Canadian tax or infrastructure paid, the only winner is the person making the profit. (oh I forgot the CPC wins also) . This is parasitic, and net extractive; but has become an acceptable model.

It is not even Trade anymore, like I give you X you give me Y. It has become we buy China crap and they keep our debt. Like the other poster asserts, I suspect our “friends’ in the CPC will use this opportunity to further hollow out the Western World.

China under the CPC is a rival; they will not forget the humiliation, they won’t forget the west forcing Opium on their population. Not only have we hollowed out or economy we have turned them into an economic superpower.

#69 not 1st on 04.05.20 at 1:52 pm

Some forecasters said any country not under the major central banks affiliated with the federal reserve and linked to the US reserve currency will be staring down a sovereign debt default in the future.

In 2009 we weren’t trying to kill our resource and export sector with draconian and backward climate policy. There are remote mines in the middle of nowhere that are shutdown. Govt spending wont lead us out and consumer spending will be muted for a while. Who will be the first person to get on a plane again? So what leads us out? Probably real estate borrowing.

#70 Wrk.dover on 04.05.20 at 2:01 pm

Cv problem – Constant Velocity Joint Problem

No one caught the Corona Virus Problem angle.

Find a new site for deep puns Sailor Boi.

#71 Val on 04.05.20 at 2:04 pm

Please note that pent up demand only valid for things that last, eg houses, cars. Not so much for meals, entertainment, spring clothing, vacations, hair cuts, etc.
Whatever is not consumed now, is gone permanently.

So economy will take a hit, and this is the million dollar question right now – how big. If we knew, then P/E would also be known, then hence market would find its footing.

There could be second, third, etc waves of this virus, and we could be locked down for 3-6 months. The hit that E will take is unknown, and to say that the bottom is in is premature.

#72 Howard on 04.05.20 at 2:05 pm

Or, it could be like the prolonged, stagflationary 13-year bear market experienced from 1969 to 1982. Nobody knows yet.

#73 DON on 04.05.20 at 2:05 pm

#42 of two minds on 04.05.20 at 12:51 pm

I’m not sure what the economic impact will be.

Some, like after 9 / 11, will adopt / augment their YOLO attitude and up spending – “only live once”

Some will have had a “near death ” experience with their finances and become more frugal – “save every penny”

I think it will come down to;
1) how much economic pain they may endure thru this
2) change in net worth
3) the change in their home’s value
4) their age
5) their job status / prospects / unemployment rate
6) speed of economic recovery / length of lock down
7) their ability to access credit

While the barber may see an immediate surge in demand for haircuts – they are small dollars in the overall picture.

What do you blog dogs think will happen post CV 19 ?
*************

I couldn’t agree more. I get the feeling February 2020 numbers will take some time to get back to. No quick fixes. The world just got a taste of consequences.

9/11 was a momentary fear for those not directly involved while this virus is real for all to varying degrees. Who even wants to get sick with this thing. It has reached into the living rooms of people around the world. Fear is harder to overcome, whatever that fear may be.

2008/2009 was a debt binge and credit disaster that essentially got papered over, but the bad debt(s) never went away. What’s going on behind the scenes in that arena?

Demand will come back but not in the same way, unless ALL those JOBS come back in the next two months.

Will Trump put tariffs on Saudi Oil to save the US?
Save American oil jobs…

On a side note. Some graduate students are asking for free tuition for the summer semester. I could only bare to read the headline.

But I would like things to get back to the ‘new normal’ as soon as possible.

Now is the time to enjoy your personal relationships and take some much needed time for yourselves. Sooner or later the Wagon Master will give the order to move out.

Take care everyone!

#74 Sigmund Freud on 04.05.20 at 2:06 pm

indeed – #48 oh bouyon 04.05.20 at 1:10 pm
________________________

Look, buster, … I’m imaginatively bankrupt! Forgive me, …

Best,

F.S.

#75 New Poll on 04.05.20 at 2:08 pm

Okay great Sunday post. Always need a pick me up!

Okay since we are making predictions
How will the government start chipping away at our new debt in 2021 and beyond, federal only.

clawback OAS down to 60,000
CPP increase age limit to 67 or higher
Increase Capital gains taxes maybe 75%
Say goodby to pension splitting
Soft taxes might as well increase gas taxes while prices are so low
Increase GST the more you spend, hint at Garths pent up demand, the more you pay
Increase personal taxes by 1 percent or more!

Use your creative juices to add to the list
We need a diversion from the virus and doom and gloom

Have fun!

#76 YouKnowWho on 04.05.20 at 2:12 pm

#29 Yukon Elvis

So Elvis is buzzed?

I have a FlowBee. It’s awesome. I did some math, and I’m easily at $5000 saved for my kids haircuts to date and parents constantly complement their cuts.

I’m really good with it now after years of practice. I can cut my own too, fade and all. Even the wife comes to my salon to trim her split ends now. I charge her double – as is the way for women haircuts.

#77 Diharv on 04.05.20 at 2:13 pm

#12 Greg on 04.05.20 at 11:42 am
Well China cases dropped off and they only had 3000 deaths in a country of 1.4 Billion so I’m sure we’ll be just fine.

Like any data out China has any credibility.

#78 Sorry Dorothy ... on 04.05.20 at 2:14 pm

Here’s a tip for you Garth and dawgs that was passed along to me by an ex-coworker. He sent his wife to a one day hair cutting course and bought her a set of scissors and voila …
Worked for me too …

#79 Honest Realtor on 04.05.20 at 2:16 pm

I’m pleased and impressed Mr Turner.

In barely two days our views are now very much aligned.

” …a tsunami of buying…” Yep!

Exactly what is ahead for real estate, could not have said it better myself.

Pent up demand will push SFDs higher right away with a paucity of listings. This will then highlight the great value of condos, which will also move up well. The market will catch up and be roaring. Homes in expensive areas of Toronto are being gobbled up right now.

Plus, the COVID-19 episode will push more people to want to come to Canada from less secure places, and the federals will definitely need to increase this immigration to help pay the bills over the next decade.

This stoppage will be seriously reversing within mere weeks. Any slight downturn now will, in retrospect, be a great buying opportunity.

Home values in areas like the GTHA and YVR will at least double, maybe triple by 2030.

Within 2 years, the dominant phrase of the new age will be memorable, and COVID-19 will be a distant memory:

“The Roaring Twenties”

It’s coming folks – don’t miss out!

#80 Living and learning on 04.05.20 at 2:19 pm

Here is a video of Rudy Giuliani (NYC Mayor on 911) interviewing a NYC Dr that has cured hundreds of CV19 patients with hydroxychloroquine. Now India, where the drug is made is restricting its export. Most pharmaceutical drugs are now manufactured in India or China. There is now an extreme shortage of the drug and I think that is why Canada is not using it. Canada is down playing it’s use because they don’t have much of it!!! Thousands of Drs in the world are using the drug to treat themselves! The drug is off patent and is cheap – $20 for 1 person. Trudeau should get on top of this ASAP. Once the drug is widely available the pandemic will end and we will be back to normal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbWZj0RaW9o

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/india-bans-all-exports-of-trumps-game-changer-virus-drug/ar-BB12bfRU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCF9UQzwgKo&list=PLBkM8ClxA0kdT9NF75VAP4YV-fF9EHP8x&index=5

#81 Honest Realtor on 04.05.20 at 2:21 pm

….or maybe we will call the decade ahead

“The Second Roaring Twenties”

or

“The New Roaring Twenties”

Any thoughts?

We are in for an awesome decade ahead folks!

#82 SoggyShorts on 04.05.20 at 2:22 pm

Hey Garth,
I’m curious, how are the greaterfool.ca numbers? Seems like a big uptick in comment count, but what about site visitors? Even smoking man made a return so I’m guessing traffic is way up.
Can you do one of those site stats posts again please?

Also, thank you. Because of you I’ve been able to stop checking my PF after checking it almost daily for over a year( but I still come here daily for more “stay the course” advice.)

#83 crazyfox on 04.05.20 at 2:22 pm

I appreciate your optimism Garth, I truly do. There is no doubt pent up demand from people with money for the basics, never mind new cars and houses but here’s the thing. Everyone else (what, half the population living check to check and those depending on their checks) will need that hair cut and restock the shelves but beyond that, in a world with cloudy earnings, its not an environment that encourages people to spend.

Money managers see what has happened to people’s net worth, people aren’t aren’t going to jump out of the gate and buy a new car unless they feel financially secure. A few of us always will but the rest of us poor sops? Worried for their financial future and rightly so. What happens with this pandemic when economies open up or this fall assuming some seasonality, will governments be prepared?

Hopping on a plane to Disneyland or a cruise or vacation, new cars are no longer the first things on our minds now. Travel, sports, entertainment, restaurants and hotels are going to take a big hit until people can trust in seasonality or an effective drug or vaccine and at the moment its not there.

Hope for optimism rests in free movement. Seasonality may not offer this the way we hope as explained in the past… maybe enough to open up the economy to some degrees, but we need to get case numbers down. Adequate test and trace will not be enough on its own. We need to have temp guns in use everywhere people gather to stop the mild case and pre-symptomatic spreaders and GPS cel apps tracking infected are an excellent compliment to this, even in a nation like Canada with only 40% cel phone market share.

Masks should be compulsory for the public when they ever come, until the numbers no longer justify. I could give two shits about people’s freedom’s, these are not ordinary times! It’s the only way to stamp out the spread of this virus with an open economy in my view no matter what the season and the longer it takes for Canada and the U.S. to catch onto this, the more we will economically suffer for it.

What has me worried is that the higher ups south of the line didn’t know what to do all the way through the spread of this pandemic and for the most part, still don’t. Until political changes come, nothing will change there. The system is on auto pilot with the wrong programming and the pilot elects were never there to look after things, just themselves. There’s no leadership and some of them can’t be replaced until next year. This isn’t just a scientific problem, its a political one and until these issues are resolved, the economics of this thing will suffer tremendously for it.

I really hope I’m wrong. I can only say that this blog’s existence has always been intertwined with caution. Don’t borrow your brains out. Don’t feed systemic risk (debt bubble, housing bubble). Don’t take on too much risk with investing, life, with all of it, take your time with it, do the research, don’t get emotional, don’t force it. Success requires patience and recognizing danger and opportunity and being proactive/reactive when it comes. These time honored traditions of prosperity will never change.

Looking back, dot com boom and bust, 911, GFC, bond market disruption, commodity crash, we didn’t think something new would come into play like a modern day pandemic? What, Trump leadership and election year insulates us from the dangers of the world? What follows, more bond market disruption? War? Inflation driven by bankruptcy and shortage? Supply/demand income shock? Climate change? Another pandemic? (another one will come I think, within 2 years) There will always be real dangers in this world, nothing’s changed here. I’m not saying be paralyzed by danger, what I’m saying is respect it and stay true to the mission. We can’t control what happens, but we can always control how we respond.

#84 Gino on 04.05.20 at 2:22 pm

At least we got to learn just how much of the population is truly one pay cheque away from bankruptcy. Keep printing the fake money Feds. This country needs it. Especially for those Garth speaks of with the pent up demand for goods and services. They’ll need someone’s money to use to pay for this stuff.

#85 Albertaguy (still) in AZ on 04.05.20 at 2:32 pm

Garth, too funny! Looked in the mirror yesterday and thought…I need a haircut…so brought out the electric trimmer, scissors, comb and a mirror… with a bit of help and mixed opinion from the better half I ended up with one of the best haircuts i have had in a while…reminded me that my dad used to cut his own hair, in fact i never knew him to go to a barber … ever…maybe we revert to the past in many ways after this is said and done

85F in AZ today…

#86 Barb on 04.05.20 at 2:37 pm

“…Ya, like vital medical + equipment supply chains.

Ensure all production done in Canada, by Canadians and with factory outputs that can be ramped up quickly for a pandemic. Needs to be done after this mess is over.”

——————————–
And just how do WE ENSURE that occurs?
Got T2’s phone number?
Park yourself at his door?
Trump’s cellphone nbr?

The cream of ideas seldom rises to the top in modern societies with modern politicians.

Perhaps it was always thus…

#87 Linda on 04.05.20 at 2:41 pm

Bandit, as always, looks suave & debonair:) As for today’s post, I agree that eventually the economy will recover & yes, there will be ‘pent up demand’. What might be lacking however are the financial resources to permit the predicted sales frenzy. People who have been out of work & relying on EI or CERB to cover the costs are unlikely to have the resources to purchase anything but the basics upon their return to work. It is quite possible that there will be requests for immediate payment of various living expenses – rent, utilities, loans etc. that have been deferred due to not having funds to pay them in the first place. When is a bargain not a bargain? When you are spending funds you don’t have available in the first place.

That having been said, anyone who does have excess cash on hand should have plenty of opportunities to score deals. Though there may be fewer deals than anticipated because the businesses which would normally offer them closed for good.

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 2:43 pm

@#82 Dishonest Realtor
“We are in for an awesome decade ahead folks!”
+++

“folks”?

Could it be?

Has “Best Place on Earth” returned to the fold……?

#89 G on 04.05.20 at 2:45 pm

Ever time my wife cuts my hair I am not allowed to look in a mirror! lol
She usually gets a foot massage as payment. tips are extra ;)
If this goes on awhile I may need to learn to cut her too. It’s a good thing it grows back just in case.

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 2:47 pm

@#62 Janetwofour
“wants vs needs”

++++
let me se if I have this…..

I want a Palazzo in sunny Calabria.
I need one without a braggadocio Brit as my neighbor.

Is that about right?

#91 Steven Nicolle on 04.05.20 at 2:47 pm

My wife who is not a hairstylist cuts my hair. It’s not hard. Maybe a store near you has a clipper set and Dorothy could give it a whirl. You’ll have a few months to let it grow back in. Nice mop!

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 2:49 pm

@#64 Flop
“I went to the dollar store and bought a teeth cleaning kit and took it home and started hacking plaque off.”

++

You played rugby and have more than one tooth?

#93 Al on 04.05.20 at 2:55 pm

A few weeks!? Lol

“B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix says there’s “zero chance” any of the COVID-19 orders now in place will change by the end of April.”

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/lockdown-to-remain-for-weeks-some-restrictions-likely-until-vaccine-found-1.24110232

Months, maybe.

There are 24 days left in April. BTW, this comments section is humourless, sad, nihilistic and depressing. Bandit and I are outta here. – Garth

#94 joblo on 04.05.20 at 2:57 pm

What’s she been doing lately?

Mona Fortier, Minister of Middle Class Prosperity and Associate Minister of Finance

“Minister Fortier is focused on making life more affordable for Canadians, protecting the environment, and helping businesses prosper. She is a strong advocate for linguistic duality and always searches for the right balance between prosperity and social justice.

As a mother of three, a University of Ottawa graduate, community leader, and entrepreneur, Minister Fortier knows that it is important to come together with an ambitious plan to build stronger and better communities while growing the middle class.”

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/corporate/organizational-structure/bios/minister-middle-class-prosperity-associate-minister-finance.html

#95 TurnerNation on 04.05.20 at 3:02 pm

#2 YouKnowWho the numbers on the tele-screen are prescripted and desired to get the following reaction.
Sports have been ended this is all the masses have.

Live-Dead-Recovered. Win-Lose-Tie.

The reaction? Iran just applied for IMF loans. That’s the long game.
One you see the numbers as being a tool and focus on the long game it all makes sense. Our tele-screens rule our lives and freedom now. Our elites are scolding us for playing outside in the sun. Thus, the numbers must be increased, and the lock down continues.

#96 Hawk on 04.05.20 at 3:07 pm

I have some reservations about this theory of “pent up” demand. Certainly in some cases it will be true, but in most cases not.

Let’s think logically. Let’s assume the lockdown = 3 months exactly.

1. Before this happened, I went to eat out 3 days a week. When it blows over, I will not be going out 6 days a week for the next three months, to make up the deficiency and may in fact even have to reduce the outings based on fallen income, in the near future.

Some restaurants may close permanently, another thing to consider.

2. Some of my new habits, such as making my tea/coffee at hime now, instead of Aroma Cafe may become entrenched permanently, even if I can re-afford easily the additional coffee.

3. Yes I may take a longer vacation when it blows over, than I would otherwise have (so to be fair this is a case of actual pent up demand).

But that presumes that borders and travel may open up speedily once the lock down ends. It also presumes that airlines are still in business, as our hotels and many other things required for tourist travel, many of which may no longer be around.

4. The fact that a lot of vendors may be looking to dump inventory does not mean I and many others will buy stuff we don’t need. Tons of people have lost, jobs, life savings etc. (Fortunately I have not, but that does not mean I will be going on a buying spree, I tend to buy what I need and use, and while many people don’t do that, from now on many ay come around to that idea).

5. Many people will be looking to change their working habits to remote work, which even corporations seem to be encouraging. This will also reduce demand for urban residency and a host of other factors.

When the lock down ends, its not the end of the world, but neither is back to normal immediately.

Normal is quite far on the horizon after shutting down the entire world.

#97 From the Leastcoast to the Lestcoast on 04.05.20 at 3:08 pm

Will/can the recovery liken the 2008 debacle? The bailout is even larger this go around and the last dive never actually recovered. We may continue to want to buy buy buy but most Canadians were already maxed out and a recession was already forecasted before this disaster. This will be a much longer recovery (even if everything goes well). I think the stock market and housing market are in for much larger haircuts than the one you’re gonna get. Good luck with that! lol

#98 Stone on 04.05.20 at 3:08 pm

#69 Dogman01 on 04.05.20 at 1:51 pm
#47 Dr V on 04.05.20 at 1:10 pm

If you are making coffee cup in Canada to sell to Canadians then everyone’s a winner. You have to compete for labour at a Canadian rate, pay for Canadian infrastructure and of course charge a price that allows a profit. Taxes paid, Canadian workers paid and a profit…everybody wins.

But if you make the cup in China, and import it in, well no Canadians working, no Canadian tax or infrastructure paid, the only winner is the person making the profit. (oh I forgot the CPC wins also) . This is parasitic, and net extractive; but has become an acceptable model.

It is not even Trade anymore, like I give you X you give me Y. It has become we buy China crap and they keep our debt. Like the other poster asserts, I suspect our “friends’ in the CPC will use this opportunity to further hollow out the Western World.

China under the CPC is a rival; they will not forget the humiliation, they won’t forget the west forcing Opium on their population. Not only have we hollowed out or economy we have turned them into an economic superpower.

———

Humiliation? What about betrayal? Betraying the developed world that raised it out of its self imposed poverty and misery by not advising it of the virus that now puts the world at a standstill and continuing with its lies.

Don’t take it from me. Look at the corporate world. They despise uncertainty. They want to know week by week, quarter by quarter, where their revenues and profits come from. The CCP has created heavy uncertainty and risk.

Do you really think the corporate world will allow that to continue? I don’t. They will move all their manufacturing out from anything that creates uncertainty and risk.

From superpower to bottom of the list loser. What is gained can just as easily be lost. Bye bye China. It won’t take long to start to see the effect.

#99 Calgary on 04.05.20 at 3:10 pm

Canada should stop all specialised pulp for medical production, medical supplies and equipments to the US immediately.

Why is Trudeau still hiding in his house? Shame on him!

#100 not 1st on 04.05.20 at 3:13 pm

Maybe Garth doesn’t spend much time in the twitterverse but the same SJWs who will be hammered by this downturn with no backstop and are the first in line for a govt handout are now clamoring for just UBI forever for them, because this is still all rich people and corporations fault.

#101 Flop... on 04.05.20 at 3:21 pm

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 2:49 pm
@#64 Flop
“I went to the dollar store and bought a teeth cleaning kit and took it home and started hacking plaque off.”

++

You played rugby and have more than one tooth?

/////////////////

I have never played rugby.

It’s a regional thing in Australia, Tasmania is more into our version of football, Aussie Rules.

I have still got all my teeth,well, up until I started experimenting with dentistry with dollar store utensils, because of something about a virus going around.

My dentist regularly offers to remove my wisdom teeth, but then I wonder how I would fit in with all the bored engineers in the comments section…

M45BC

#102 Barb on 04.05.20 at 3:24 pm

$65 in my wallet, for the last 4 weeks.
The wallet clasp has cobwebs on it…

#103 Dolce Vita on 04.05.20 at 3:25 pm

“There are 24 days left in April. BTW, this comments section is humourless, sad, nihilistic and depressing. Bandit and I are outta here. – Garth”

CHIN UP Garth. I appreciate what you are writing about, very, very much.

It’s smart not only in facts but analysis. And I concur with what you say, a lot. Epic Cdn economic history is being made and you are chronicling and analyzing it on the fly very well.

And you know, people are blowing off steam (being in captivity). Humanity.

Nose to the grindstone like you have been doing.

Don’t forget Farragut.

#104 BS on 04.05.20 at 3:26 pm

#6 Figmund Sreud on 04.05.20 at 11:26 am
The pandemic? It will fade, of course.
________________________

Of course it will. Still, … most interesting:

“Did Bill Gates Just Reveal the Reason Behind the Lock-Downs?”

The point Bill Gates makes about people having to prove vaccination in the future before travel is the minimum that going to happen.

This event has changed the world forever. The economic impact is too large to go back. This virus is the 4th in the last 20 years (Ebola, SARS, MERS). It is the most contagious but the least deadly. In the future if everything goes back to normal there will be other viruses that will be worse. Maybe just as contagious but more deadly like SARS or Ebola. There is no preparation for that other than to stop it in the first place. This cannot happen again.

This virus and the previous viruses were accidental. There is no question terrorist or enemy states like North Korea will look at this as a new weapon. All you need is to get one infected person in. Or vile in. Easier and more damaging than a nuclear weapon and nobody would know where it came from. Look what it did to the US air craft carrier. It took it out of service. It could have been the whole fleet. One infected person is all you need.

Worldwide travel and relatively open borders as we know it are done forever. The European union will get borders. The Euro will be finished as a currency as Italy and Spain will need their own currencies to print money.

Key manufacturing supply chains will come back to North America and Europe. They have to. Globalists like Trudeau will be voted out of office. These changes alone will change the world economy drastically. There will be winners and losers. Local workers will be winners. More local jobs that aren’t service jobs. China will be the loser. Maybe developing countries like India who have a democracy will be winners. Still manufacturing will come back to home countries.

There will be inflation because goods will cost more. The travel industry will change. More domestic vacations and far less abroad and far less foreign visitors coming in. Canada will have to follow the US to maintain our relatively open border with them. We have no choice no matter who our leader is.

Think of air travel a few decades ago. You could literally walk on a plane with no ID and a gun in your carry on smoking a cigarette. It was like getting on a bus in a third world country. Now think what you have to go to to get on an airplane now. In the future air travel will be 10 times more restricted both getting on the plane and getting into another country. Visas will be required from everywhere.

Once we get through the initial deflationary shock, plan on inflation coming back with less offshore manufacturing. That means higher interest rates at some point. Probably higher taxes. Maybe time to cash out any gains. Housing will be decimated with higher rates even after what happens from shutting down the economy. Bonds will also be decimated with higher rates. Those with debt will not fair well. Buying cruise ship or airline stocks because they are cheap will be a poor decision. Biotechnology stocks could be big winners. Those rate reset prefs could finally shine. Companies that are able to manufacture domestically will be big winners. Automation will be a big winner. Gold will go higher. At least with indexes you will get in on what ever happens. Invest accordingly.

#105 mark on 04.05.20 at 3:37 pm

I agree with a lot of others, there is no way for a quick recovery, people are living on air now and for many months into the future, they have money for nothing for months or years down the road to buy anything, its survival mode for years.

#106 Penny Henny on 04.05.20 at 3:38 pm

Mike from mtl mentioned that he does not hear the fire truck sirens as often with the lockdown.
Funny, I just mentioned the same thing to my wife yesterday.

#107 Shawn Allen on 04.05.20 at 3:38 pm

China beat the virus so we will too? Really

#12 Greg on 04.05.20 at 11:42 am said:

Well China cases dropped off and they only had 3000 deaths in a country of 1.4 Billion so I’m sure we’ll be just fine.

**************************************
China showed what was it six weeks ago? that a near-total lock down including wearing masks and doing tons of testing and temperature taking was a way to beat the virus.

And most of the world ignored that success for weeks and has yet to really emulate it.

Look at the following site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Click each country and look. I’m not sure ANY other country can be said to have beaten the virus. Taiwan is close.

A few countries have definitely managed to flatten the curve and that includes Spain and Italy albeit at a high level that possibly still exceeds their hospital capacity. South Korea and some other have flattened at a management level but not yet beaten the virus down to close to zero active cases like China has.

Canada may or may not be close to flattening at a level the hospitals can handle.

The U.S. under Trump is/was very late in imposing lock downs and is not close to flattening the curve. Same for U.K. U.S. deaths are already nearly three times higher than China with a third the population. Likely headed to what 10 times higher so 30 times higher per capita?

It’s hard to see how Canada and especially the U.S. will get active cases down close zero without at least eight weeks more of shutdown. And it may take masks and near total true isolation to get there.

In summary. U.S. deaths already are way higher than China and going much higher yet. They will be lucky to flatten at a level their hospitals can handle. Shutdown will continue and tighten for at least 8 more weeks more likely 12 or more.

#108 Penny Henny on 04.05.20 at 3:45 pm

“You actually remind me of Bandit,” Dorothy said. “Get a haircut.”-GT

/////////////

I’ll be getting out the dog clippers tomorrow and cut my own hair.

#109 Ustabe on 04.05.20 at 3:46 pm

We are buying gift certificates from any of the local, independent, owner operated restaurants we frequent. Those that aren’t open for take out we will catch them up after the storm.

I’ve urged a number of neighbours and friends to do similar and I believe its happening on a larger scale than just our hundred bucks here, another there.

If they fail to make it, so be it, I hope the few dollars I spend on gift certificates at least brought a smile to the beleaguered restaurateur’s face.

#110 BS on 04.05.20 at 3:47 pm

#38 TurnerNation on 04.05.20 at 12:37 pm

What if…. whaf if banks begin lowering Loan to Value allowances and begin calling in HELOC outstanding balances. Margin calls.
I’d give this a 70% probability.

The banks don’t need to lower the LTV for this to happen. As prices fall HELOC room will drop anyway. I heard a mortgage broker on the radio yesterday and he said he is seeing appraisals coming in 20% lower in Vancouver compared to 1 month ago. He even had one on the same house which was 20% lower one month later. That lowers the the HELOC amount by a huge amount right there and if someone was close to max LTV the bank may require immediate payment and a new appraisal and then call it as prices go lower.

#111 Sail away on 04.05.20 at 3:50 pm

#100 Calgary on 04.05.20 at 3:10 pm

Canada should stop all specialised pulp for medical production, medical supplies and equipments to the US immediately.

—————-

And how, exactly, would that help? One of the very few industries that is still exporting and is going well, you want to shut down?

Canada has no use for that stuff.

Please, expand on your statement.

#112 Ronaldo on 04.05.20 at 3:51 pm

#100 Calgary on 04.05.20 at 3:10 pm
Canada should stop all specialised pulp for medical production, medical supplies and equipments to the US immediately.

Why is Trudeau still hiding in his house? Shame on him!
——————————————————————
Would it make any difference if he wasn’t?

#113 joblo on 04.05.20 at 3:52 pm

“When a bat in China ends up sickening your gram in Kelowna, it’s time to reconsider a few things. We will.”

Ya, forget Beyond Meat,

Invest in Beyond Bat

#114 Re., Dolce vita on 04.05.20 at 3:59 pm

Why is Italy such a shit show ? What happened?

Won’t have to worry about tourists for a long time, wouldnt catch me alive in that country

So sad

#115 not 1st on 04.05.20 at 4:00 pm

#104 Dolce Vita on 04.05.20 at 3:25 pm

Dolce, your model is calling for 32,000 deaths in Canada? Did I read that right?

Have you seen the modelling for new york that is 4 fold higher than the cases are currently trending.

I think the eggheads got this one wrong too.

#116 Ezra on 04.05.20 at 4:01 pm

Steve Katsikaris alleges that COVID19 is a globalist hoax because there are travellers coming to Canada as usual:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OgnukiLIKE

#117 Marco on 04.05.20 at 4:01 pm

Corporations rule the western world, politicians are just pawns in the game. Corporations prop the China because it is profitable and also cheap goods give you feeling that you are middle class. What exactly is middle class. I guess it is something obscene because self isolated trust fund boy use the word so much. Because, see now when you have problems, working class save you derrieres. So I do not understand this nationalistic thing in Canada. Suddenly you discover that everything you need is made in China. Only thing that can unite bums across the country is hockey. This is not homeland to anybody. It is a dark cold place in which you cannot thrive if you do not have a tribe. And tribes in Canada do not mix. Police patrol in trenches dug between them. It is tribal economy of incompetent people without merit. And you will now face Imperial China? Only people in today’s world who can stood up to China are Russians and they seams a little bit reluctant after west try to kill them for last hundred years.

#118 Shawn Allen on 04.05.20 at 4:03 pm

God Save the Queen

Our Queen gave a good little speech today. She will soon be 94 and is still working.

God Save the Queen
God save our gracious Queen,
Long live our noble Queen,
God save the Queen;

#119 Jon on 04.05.20 at 4:05 pm

When will it end?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6AWuzVlZGH0

#120 oh bouy on 04.05.20 at 4:08 pm

@#106 mark on 04.05.20 at 3:37 pm
I agree with a lot of others, there is no way for a quick recovery, people are living on air now and for many months into the future, they have money for nothing for months or years down the road to buy anything, its survival mode for years.
__________________________

lol

#121 NoName on 04.05.20 at 4:08 pm

Now that vaccine are mentioned… Press play

https://youtu.be/v9EM9ZrUQA4

https://youtu.be/QyzBm50AKuI

#122 MF on 04.05.20 at 4:10 pm

#80 Honest Realtor on 04.05.20 at 2:16 pm

Lol for real estate, we already passed the “roaring twenties”. It’s more like we are now headed for the “dirty thirties”.

House prices only go up forever right?

MF

#123 Notyet on 04.05.20 at 4:14 pm

All these charts show a 5 year V recovery from previous peak to achieve same level.

#124 Piano_Man87 on 04.05.20 at 4:19 pm

Epidemiologists modelling in Ontario: “Yeah, our models go out as far as 24 months tracking this pandemic.”

Garth: “Yeah, I bet I can get a haircut in a month or two.”

Nobody has suggested a two-year lockdown and closure of businesses. Beyond ridiculous. – Garth

#125 Asterix1 on 04.05.20 at 4:29 pm

Pent-up purchases will be suppressed by unsustainable and debt.

Average Joe is maxed out, falling RE market will erode any semblance of richness. It’s definitely not FDI or our energy sector/manufacturing that is keeping the lights on anymore.

A V shape recovery seems improbable (at least in Canada).

#126 Viorelli on 04.05.20 at 4:32 pm

Many people think that things will stabilize and get back to normal fairly fast. However, things are in doubt. Our economy had been hollowed out, when a country loses its manufacturing and farming, it loses its identity and becomes a parasitic welfare state. We had lost both, the manufacturing is in China and US, farming is mostly in US and Mexico. Only healthcare, some natural resources, government services, and tourism remain. We can safely assume that tourism is also gone for now, with government services and natural resources on the decline. There is simply no demand from China for manufacturing purposes and government needs to get lean due to the lack of revenue coming in from taxation. This leaves us with healthcare, but not every citizen can become a care aid or collect welfare. Unless specific long term gains are set and policies implemented, we will see some long term devastation results. First we need to completely cut off all manufacturing in the third world and set up shop at home, yes t- shirt will cost $30 and shoes 200, but Canadians will be at work. Second, close the borders to TFWs, foreign students, and foreign investors, corporate and personal to correct market imbalances for our citizens. Significantly limit immigration. Third, bring back the farming on a massive scale. Trade and dependance on USA will remain on a controlled scale. We need them to survive. Israel does not import Chinese goods, they make their own, their farming feeds most of Eastern Europe, not bad for a tiny country, manufacturing cannot be outsourced, it is a law! Scientists and researchers do not share trade secrets with China to keep work at home and advance their own economy, these are just a few things to learn. We had a pretty decent economy and lifestyle in North America in the 60s and 70s, why can’t we bring it back? But with some improvements for our own citizens?

#127 KNOW IT ALL on 04.05.20 at 4:37 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTgHf5dIYpA

Fast forward to about 18:00

Explanation on how the financial system work.

#128 Fred on 04.05.20 at 4:42 pm

Poor dolce vita, so quick to criticize Canada and was ..so proud of Italy

How r things over there champ ?

#129 I think I lost it on 04.05.20 at 4:44 pm

Seeing your photo today, I thought:

“I think I lost it, let me know if you come across it
Let me know if I let it fall along a back road somewhere
Money can’t replace it, no memory can erase it
and I know I’m never gonna find another one to compare”
-Lucinda Williams

#130 Kilt on 04.05.20 at 4:47 pm

#94 Al
“B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix says there’s “zero chance” any of the COVID-19 orders now in place will change by the end of April.”

Not that I disbelieve you. But, if the numbers start coming in at 10 to 20 new cases a day. Can you really justify shutting down the economy, schools and sports for that? How about a move to getting back to normal:
Keep social distancing.
Start providing masks and hand sanitizer to everyone.
Install thermal scanners at Airports
Keep some travel limits in place.
Have select schooling, smaller classes for kids not keeping up with homework. Or an option for kids to come to school if they have no one at home to take care of them.

Sweden isn’t looking that bad right now.
We have 277 dead in Canada. How many of those people would have died this year anyway. Most are associated with retirement homes and people with health issues. The flu has the same effect on retirement homes.

#38 TurnerNation
Why call in Heloc? Banks have no desire to kill the golden goose. As long as they can keep collecting interest they are happy.

Kilt.

#131 Kilt on 04.05.20 at 4:51 pm

Local Real Estate Stats for March.

Sales up 8% over March 2019.
Prices up 8%

It does have me scratching my head. Considering you couldn’t get TP at Costco or Superstore on the 15th of the month.
But I still see cars slowing down or stop when they drive by a listing.

Kilt.

#132 Last Gasp on 04.05.20 at 4:53 pm

I applaude the normalcy bias in this equivalent of a “financial urgent-care” blog.

It ir is exceedingly important to face the viral enemy with resolve whilst economic bullets, shrapnel and body bits of comrades around us are labeling blown up. The mortal economic casualties every second are unremitting and will continue so a long, long time. The problem is most of the collateral damage in this war are from our own superiors. There is a reason that those of
us in the small business trenches will soon seek to fragge the inept officer class.

Took the weekend to catch up with my old cohort in the business world south of
the 49th, back east and out west. The morbid consensus for the small business owner caualties is that 10 per cent gave given up the ghost and are in the process of permanently shuttering. If this heavy bombing by the Federal High Command lasts until the first week of May, 25 per cent will be forced to quit. Additional attrition from balance sheet infections and bebt sepsi as opposed to outright bullet in the head by stay-at-home orders is an additional 10 per cent, despite trying to survive by spending every last loonie in the till.
The banks cannot get cash into business fast enough to save them, there is no credit worthiness left in the retail
system. Debt cannot displace demand. Demand has been psychologically and financially destroyed.

We were not bouncing back. It will not be business as usual. Confidence in the future and in governance has been destroyed for a generation.

Sorry Garth, but your world view is pre-virus. I wish and hope you are right, and it is all Mary Poppins and we goe back to how it was. But the viral facts before us belies that grim reality.

#133 Trojan House on 04.05.20 at 4:55 pm

I’m not so sure there will be pent up demand when and if this is over (except for barbers and hairdressers of course!). I don’t recall when the financial crisis hit in 2008/09 that over 1 million people filed for some type of government assistance. I also don’t remember businesses being shut for long periods, or at all. Yes, some banks in the States took a hit and closed up, others had to be bailed out and big companies like GM also needed bailouts. CMHC also needed a cash injection of $75 billion from our government in case there were big hits to our banks.

This time I think it is different because of the closing of businesses and the laying off of people. As many commentators have already expressed, we’re really not sure if some of those businesses will be able to open when things start back up. As for the people that were laid off, again it is really a crap shoot whether the company they work for will be able to open and even if they can open, how many employees will they be able to re-hire until revenues return?

So for a lot of people, those big purchases, even though there may be really great deals out there, may have to wait.

Anyway, Garth and everyone else, including myself, are just predicting what may happen as we don’t really know. Clarence Campbell once said “predictions are for gypsies.”

#134 Wrk.dover on 04.05.20 at 5:11 pm

128 Viorelli on 04.05.20 at 4:32 pm
Many people think that things will stabilize and get back to normal fairly fast
We had a pretty decent economy and lifestyle in North America in the 60s and 70s, why can’t we bring it back? But with some improvements for our own citizens?

——————————

Mulroney, that’s why. He sunk the knife in and twisted it. My former occupation has the scars to prove it.

#135 BLTandfries on 04.05.20 at 5:18 pm

As for Bill Gates, he didn’t vaccinate his own children!

https://www.uspoliticsandnews.com/why-didnt-bill-gates-vaccinate-his-own-children/

I never pictured him as the Antichrist but anything looks possible nowadays.

Good thing the TrumpPills are coming.

#136 Guillaume on 04.05.20 at 5:28 pm

For those in the private sector, small business entrepreneurs and self employed that can swallow this first wave without choking, there will be a huge reward so people hold on ! Now I can’t wait to see the second wave that is going to hit every level of gouvernement When the coffers will sit empty Like in Newfoundland Labrador. Perfect time to get a leaner, more efficient gouvernement… Can’t wait to see education budget halves when we will figure that online learning is very efficient and cost ten times less than having full time teachers on site, I can’t wait…

#137 Nonplused on 04.05.20 at 5:32 pm

Cash for clunkers was one of the dumbest ideas ever. How can it make sense to destroy perfectly good equipment before its time? And based on my reading of the graph it didn’t make much difference, just a temporary blip. It still took 4 years for sales to solidly recover.

So I guess the question is how much economic damage will the stupid virus do before it is tamed? Will it be a V-shaped recovery? Or will the process take years as the recovery from 2008 did? Will the barber shops be open in May or September? Or not until next year? I’m going to bet on May for the barber shops but a period of years before the economy is back to 100%. A lot of people and businesses just got a great big hole blown in the balance sheet.

I expect some fundamental challenges/changes coming up as well. Those people who have discovered they can work just as effectively from home probably won’t want to go back to the office. WeWork is probably not going to make it, but they were in trouble anyway. The airlines and cruise ships may never return to their peak. The US will probably pass legislation to domesticate production of certain critical medications and supplies. I don’t know if “insourcing” will become a thing but I think a lot of manufacturers are going to spend some time reconsidering their supply chains. Oil is going to take a long time to get back to $60 so shale and Alberta are in trouble. And prepping might go mainstream. Maybe saving too, although that might be too much to ask now that the government has stepped in as a universal income provider in times of trouble. The lesson learned might be that if they can do it once they can do it again.

#138 MF on 04.05.20 at 5:34 pm

#134 Last Gasp on 04.05.20 at 4:53 pm

I too think Garth is incorrect. No one can predict the future. Garth has been right on lots of things, but wrong on some biggies as well. A lot of us come here for the predictions so it’s all good.

Anyways,

A huge segment of the population with lots of wealth and spending power (baby boomers) is spooked. My parents included. They haven’t left the house in weeks. I bring them all groceries and anything else they need. They won’t be eating out in restaurants, going on cruises, going to theatres, flying to vacation spots, or shopping in malls for a while. At least a year or two. All those services that depend on this segment of the population will suffer for a prolonged period. How could they not? This is not even considering the haircut all their portfolios have taken.

So, there is definitely pent up demand, but it will blunted.

We are dealing with a biological problem, not a financial one. We don’t need a financial solution, we need a biological one, and that looks to be over a year away. A year is a long time when someone is living pay cheque to pay cheque, which many people are, at least according to many previous blog posts we’ve had.

MF

#139 Huckster Hal on 04.05.20 at 5:44 pm

#12 Greg on 04.05.20 at 11:42 am

“Well China cases dropped off and they only had 3000 deaths in a country of 1.4 Billion so I’m sure we’ll be just fine.”

And I have some swampland in Florida to sell you. Tell me you are trying to be sarcastic…

#140 the Jaguar on 04.05.20 at 5:47 pm

We wish Dorothy god speed in her holy mission of mercy with the garden shears. Failure is not an option, as they say at NASA. The mullett photo next to Bandit is already disturbing, but if Garth’s photo is replaced with one of him with a ‘man bun’ it would be too much to bear………

#141 conan on 04.05.20 at 5:51 pm

The day they closed the barbers down was the day I had to go get my hair cut because it was long, too long actually. Now I look like something from a castaway movie.

I wonder if hair dressers that visit you at home or the office will be a post virus thing?

#142 Ken From BC on 04.05.20 at 5:53 pm

Fear not Garth. My wife has been threatening me with a haircut as well. I told her I want let it grow a little longer and then she can give me a mullet. Maybe relive some of my mis-spent youth. Might look good on you. Take care.

#143 Living and learning on 04.05.20 at 6:00 pm

Have you noticed that Trump and his inner circle are all out and about while Trudeau and his inner circle are all in isolation? Trudeau is holed up at home and Freeland is where? MIA? Trump has said publicly that he is not afraid of the virus. Has Trump and his team with their families all taken hydroxychloroquine as a preventative measure? I’ll bet they have.

#144 Figmund Sreud on 04.05.20 at 6:00 pm

Dept.`Pullin’ Pipe: OPEC+++ production meeting now delayed ‘til Thursday, … at least.

Saudi Aramco, ADNOC delay OSPs until after OPEC+ meets on output cuts: sources

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/040520-saudi-aramco-adnoc-delay-osps-until-after-opec-meets-on-output-cuts-sources

I say, So what? Any agreement, on the whole, will end up irrelevant.

Producers, in general, are forced to cut production mainly due to low price and low demand. Supply/demand balance will probably not improve much for another quarter, … or three. Current oversupply stands, roughly, at ~12-million bbl/day. Third quarter may drop to, … say, ~6-million, fourth to ~4.5.

Not enough, …

… mind you, Jason Kenney indicated recently that cutting Alberta’s production a bit is on the table! [ … it’s that extra + in OPEC +++ ]

Btw, … US and Canada discuss putting tariffs on Saudi and Russian oil [… who knew that US and Canada importing Russian oil?]

… US President Donald Trump has called on rival oil producers to cut production by as much as 15m barrels a day but said on Friday that tariffs “are one tool in the tool box” if Saudi Arabia and Russia do not quickly reduce supplies, threatening a deepening schism with Washington’s key Middle East ally.

https://amp.ft.com/content/5f4704e9-0942-4707-97c0-eba79f4fcbb8?__twitter_impression=true

Best,

F.S.

#145 Not So New guy on 04.05.20 at 6:00 pm

For my first return haircut, I plan on giving at least a $40 tip!

#146 ChinaSux on 04.05.20 at 6:03 pm

DELETED

#147 Tim Horton on 04.05.20 at 6:11 pm

#25 YouKnowWho on 04.05.20 at 12:15 pm

COFFEE

“Are you brewing at home? ”

You bet I am cowboy! Grind my own delicious coffee beans. Best coffee in town…

#148 Calgary on 04.05.20 at 6:14 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-04/norway-may-join-oil-output-cuts-for-the-first-time-since-2002

Tripartite agreement(US, Saudi & Russia) that includes cuts from all oil-producing countries(Canada, Norway, Brazil, UK, etc.)

#149 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 04.05.20 at 6:16 pm

#135 Trojan House on 04.05.20 at 4:55 pm

“Anyway, Garth and everyone else, including myself, are just predicting what may happen as we don’t really know. Clarence Campbell once said “predictions are for gypsies.”

Well good ol Clarence didn’t know the all knowing, all wise, financial tea leaf reading sage, oracle of Lunenberg, lone voice crying out in the Canadian financial wilderness, comforter of blog dogs, sagacious financial mystic, crytal ball gazing prophet, pandemic calming financial guru and lastly all round jolly good fellow that runs this blog! Clarence was talking about mere mortals my friend not the mighty Garth!!

#150 Sold Out on 04.05.20 at 6:16 pm

#137 BLTandfries on 04.05.20 at 5:18 pm
As for Bill Gates, he didn’t vaccinate his own children!

https://www.uspoliticsandnews.com/why-didnt-bill-gates-vaccinate-his-own-children/

I never pictured him as the Antichrist but anything looks possible nowadays.

Good thing the TrumpPills are coming.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Well, if anyone is an expert on viruses, it’s the guy who invented Windows OS.

Maybe examine your sources a little more closely. I can’t imagine why anyone would promote drivel from skeevy sources like this one, unless they have an agenda.

“It’s not an easy thing to determine who is behind a website,” said Ben April, director of research at Farsight Security, a San Mateo, California, company with tools that specialize in tracing the history and connections of websites — or domains — on the internet.

In late 2017, a variant of one of the websites, US Politics and News, turned up on the hosting service BlueAngelHost in Sofia, Bulgaria. It was listed as uspoliticsandnews.com.com, and several experts said the domain could have been hijacked by internet criminals.

https://mediatrust.com/media-center/florida-websites-peddle-far-right-news-owner-and-motives-remain-hidden

#151 Faron on 04.05.20 at 6:19 pm

Thanks for the levity Garth. Much needed.

I was considering gluing coronavirus spines on my car just to help keep traffic at bay. Too soon?

#152 Prince Charles on 04.05.20 at 6:22 pm

#120 Shawn Allen on 04.05.20 at 4:03 pm

“God Save the Queen
Our Queen gave a good little speech today. She will soon be 94 and is still working.
God Save the Queen
God save our gracious Queen,
Long live our noble Queen,
God save the Queen;”

Hear, hear! Yes, mother gave a wonderful speech to calm the nerves of the nation today. Very proud of her! Long lie the queen!

#153 Stone on 04.05.20 at 6:23 pm

Nobody has suggested a two-year lockdown and closure of businesses. Beyond ridiculous. – Garth

———

Even before this whole virus thing, there was plenty going on that was beyond ridiculous.

Household debt at something like 178%. That sounds beyond ridiculous.

People buying dustboard houses for 10x annual earnings. That sounds beyond ridiculous.

Tell me again what’s beyond ridiculous? Seems like beyond ridiculous is just a normal day in the neighbourhood.

#154 According to Goldman on 04.05.20 at 6:23 pm

Garth, what do you think about the opinion of the chief strategist for global equities and head of European macro research at Goldman Sachs, see
https://dailynewsx.in/stock-market-crash-goldman-warns-of-crisis-ratings-still-too-high. In particular, he says stocks are still too expensive, many measures for stock market valuation are not close to any of these milestones, and that it is too early to jump in now.

#155 Noam Chomsky on 04.05.20 at 6:33 pm

#96 TurnerNation on 04.05.20 at 3:02 pm

“The reaction? Iran just applied for IMF loans. That’s the long game.”

Iran had a better chance of getting that IMG loan than a snowball lasting 5 minutes in hell. The US is sticking it to Iran huge with this pandemic. They are just giddy over what is happening to the Iranian people and even many in the government. Covid19 is doing so much dirty work in Iran for the USA, they can’t believe their good fortune. If you don’t believe me check out my video below and I will explain it to you. The USA will not allow any IMF money to go to Iran…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-N3In2rLI4

#156 Grunt on 04.05.20 at 6:40 pm

Say Garth I work slap bang right in the middle of Toronto’s Portland. Right now it looks like a Mad Max apocalypse with all the bulldozed prep for flood plain work. New bridges etc. Since all 3 levels of government are involved to the tune of $billions. I’m wondering how this is going to work out post COVID?

I’m wondering if it’ll freeze or go private consortium with casinos, ferris wheel etc. Who knows.

#157 Upenuff on 04.05.20 at 6:41 pm

Any car dealers out there???

Are you getting a feel that Garth’s 2008-09 chart may come to fruition? Any talk of that on the floor?

Are dealers ready to wheel and deal already?

#158 binky barnes on 04.05.20 at 7:16 pm

Listened to our noble prime minister for a few minutes today. He is great when he starts “talking to the kids out there”, the ones who can’t play with their friends and all that stuff. No world leader can “talk to the kids out there” with the same compassion as our guy can. The semi-sultry voice, the soothing eyes, the impish grin–he can really connect with the kids.

In fact, it is pure genius. I can just picture those parents who take voting advice from their kids: “Mommy/Daddy you need to vote for that nice Mr. Trudeau, he was so nice the way he talked to me when my playground was closed last year. Remember? Please mommy/daddy, you just have to vote for him.” Parents will listen to their kids too–pure genius from his handlers.

Can’t you just picture Churchill reassuring the kids of Coventry during the Battle of Britain. Or JFK telling little Jimmy in Tennessee that things will be okay during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Or Josef Stalin reminding young Olga in Minsk not to worry despite the Nazi invasion in ’41. Nope. I bet these guys had more important daily business to attend to than “talking to the kids out there.”

Rome burned while Nero fiddled.

#159 S.Bby on 04.05.20 at 7:17 pm

I have heard it said that people look like their dogs.

#160 S.Bby on 04.05.20 at 7:19 pm

Ford will absorb 3 months of payments and defer 3 months of payments, so no payments for 6 months on any new Ford vehicle.

#161 Terry on 04.05.20 at 7:20 pm

I finally knew someone who has died from the Corona virus. He was a co-worker I worked with in the past that I have known for over 3 decades. He just passed away leaving behind a wife and 3 children. He struggled many times with severe respiratory problems and infections. God bless my friend and God’s peace.

#162 S.Bby on 04.05.20 at 7:22 pm

My wife just cut my hair and our two boys as well and did a fine job. We have decided no more barbers for us (at $50+ a shot) and I expect there will be more restructuring like this by others as we pull out of this funk.

#163 Yuus bin Haad on 04.05.20 at 7:23 pm

Oh, I misinterpreted what I saw the other day – Mayor Tory wasn’t fraternizing with that group of ne’er-do-wells on the sidewalk – he was warning the punks that after he dealt with those evil scofflaws walking their dogs in the park, he was going to come after them! Ha, ya, right.

#164 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 7:25 pm

#140 MF on 04.05.20 at 5:34 pm

A huge segment of the population with lots of wealth and spending power (baby boomers) is spooked. My parents included.

—————-

I’m not surprised. You seem easily spooked. Maybe genetics.

#165 Gerald on 04.05.20 at 7:25 pm

The dog (not Bandit) looks a little like you Garth, just happier. ;)

#166 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 7:28 pm

@#119 Marco Poloshirt PRC troll
“And tribes in Canada do not mix. Police patrol in trenches dug between them. It is tribal economy of incompetent people without merit. And you will now face Imperial China?”

+++

Hate to break it to you Poloshirt but “Imperial China” ended when the commies took over in ’49.
Anywho.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Chinese economy staggers to it’s knees without all those fat, lazy gaijin foreign devils buying trinkets and baubles with “Made in China” stamped on them.

Globalisation good or bad.
When the rest of the work gets the flu….
China’s export driven economy gets sick…..

Aiiii-yaaaaa.

#167 BrianT on 04.05.20 at 7:29 pm

When the final accounting is done on this fiasco it is quite likely the death toll from the virus will be far less than the death toll from the deliberate destruction of the economy. Even media bigwigs like Tucker Carlson are finally pointing out the obvious-economic depressions kill a very large number of people. It is interesting how all the top “health experts” have a strange tunnel vision on this topic-I wonder why that would be.

#168 Gerald on 04.05.20 at 7:31 pm

Was thinking of buying a new truck before this virus arrived. It’s too soon but at some point I may low ball (way low) my way into a new truck. They will need the cash flow in a couple of months. If not a new truck, maybe a new home closer to the kids so they won’t have to drive too far to shovel my snow.

#169 Maybe ya look like a ... on 04.05.20 at 7:35 pm

#34 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 12:31 pm

Driving to the steelhead river today, my CV joint blew out on a corner.
I went out to the main road with this sign:

CV PROBLEM
NEED RIDE
Ended up walking home 12km. What’s up with that?
—————————————————-
Gooey-Bob.

#170 islander on 04.05.20 at 7:41 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-virus-in-the-body-politic-we-have-lost-our-ability-to-cherish/

An essay by Ai Weiwei. Worth reading and reflecting on in these troubling times.

#171 FlO on 04.05.20 at 7:43 pm

Once the lockdown in China started to be lifted, barbershops were packed and the Apple stores that first opened had queues forming. ‘Rage spending’ is what media here called it – pent up demand, maybe from ‘Hongbao’ itching to be finally spent (family fiscal stimulus’?).

There are comments on Reddit from Americans who pointed out that the combined Federal assistance and State UI may actually exceed their regular pay.

#172 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.05.20 at 7:45 pm

#60 jane24 on 04.05.20 at 1:33 pm
I disagree Garth, when this is indeed over there will be a small recovery but when millions have been living on air for months they will not be rushing to buy big ticket items like cars. They will have major debts to pay off first. Some may have actually learned the difference between ‘needs’ and ‘wants’ and how much better one feels with cash saved for the next plague.

This coronavirus will restructure both the economy and people’s thinking

———-

The problem with this Jane, is that it’s easy to forget how to be poor… It’s hard to forget how to spend.

I predict business as usual in a couple months

#173 Sunny South on 04.05.20 at 7:45 pm

Dear Dr. Garth et al, as someone who is scalp gifted, I unfortunatedly am unable to appreciate your follicle related needs. On a happy note, before going outside to play with the other neighbourhood dogs, mine was kind enough to leave the radio on so I would not be lonely while she was gone. Such a great girl. Long life, health and prosperity to all fellow blog dogs and our esteemed host and his family.

#174 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 7:50 pm

@#160 binky barnes

” “Mommy/Daddy you need to vote for that nice Mr. Trudeau, he was so nice the way he talked to me when my playground was closed last year. ”

++++

Unfortunately, if Burnaby was any indication……most of the rugrats missed “Mr Trudeau’s Neighborhood” chat today.

They were busy with their parents in the playground…

I guessing the parents missed the “Stiff upper lip” speech by The Queen as well….damn colonials.

#175 not 1st on 04.05.20 at 7:52 pm

This guy has the US models on his site and tracks the actuals along with it. The models are showing factors of 2-5 times higher than actuals.
https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1245798197533896704

Garth is right, over in a month, 2 at the most.

#176 theoryAndPractice on 04.05.20 at 8:03 pm

Garth which metal band you and bandit are in ?
Well, I’ ll figure out one for you. I think we will remember the ‘wasted years’

https://youtu.be/Ij99dud8-0A

https://youtu.be/7vP2hFFV57E

#177 down and out on 04.05.20 at 8:05 pm

Garth run if those garden shears are the electric powered type those scars will show when you become an egg head like me.

#178 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 8:05 pm

Speaking of the crashing cash economy.
I won $20 and a free play in the Lotto Max.
Went to a Chevron Gas station to fill up on $.98/liter gas
( yes people thats a BINGO inn over priced vancouver).
Anywho.
I was the only car at the 12 gas pumps at noon…..on a rare sunny day…

I decided in these hard economic times
that I would
a) get a free Play for the next draw
b) cash in my $20 “winnings”.

……just about cleaned the gas station out of cash.
They gave me 2 fives and 5 loonies and were freaking at that……..

Trudeau better hurry with that Emerg. Cash…..this economy is maxxed to the hilt on Debit cards.

#179 Calgary Mark1 on 04.05.20 at 8:06 pm

Driving to the steelhead river today, my CV joint blew out on a corner.

I went out to the main road with this sign:

CV PROBLEM
NEED RIDE

Ended up walking home 12km. What’s up with that?

—‐————————————-

Really? You want people to ignore the 6 foot spacing guidelines that have been all over the news 24/7 while simultaneously picking up a hitchhiker? And then you vent on the blog about this? What does this even have to do with a financial/real estate blog?

#180 TurnerNation on 04.05.20 at 8:07 pm

From last blog entry comments it was writtenL

“I am in northern bc, small community of about 10,000 people, covid is in our city. Personal friend in quarantine right now. Many not working, city workers shut down, essential service only. Very few ventilators in NORTH bc.”

– 10,000 people had their rights suspended, locked in their homes, the economy mainly shut down because a few people might be ill? OK…
BTW at the USA hospitals, which are FOR-PROFIT and reeling under the loss of revenue when all other procedures canceled, some reports that almost all deaths are being coded as Covid. Why? Why not. Higher payouts from insurance and Federal assistance. Learn the game boys.

#181 Sold Out on 04.05.20 at 8:10 pm

#171 Maybe ya look like a … on 04.05.20 at 7:35 pm
#34 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 12:31 pm

Driving to the steelhead river today, my CV joint blew out on a corner.
I went out to the main road with this sign:

CV PROBLEM
NEED RIDE
Ended up walking home 12km. What’s up with that?
—————————————————-
Gooey-Bob.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I’m gonna say it was the unibrow.

xoxox

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 8:10 pm

damn spell check
5 “Twoonies”

did anyone notice?

:)

#183 Mr Canada on 04.05.20 at 8:11 pm

Sat on the edge of Lake Ontario today with my spouse , beautiful sunny day, water was like glass, very clear, no planes over head, and that brown ozone layer in the horizon was gone. Some positives to share on a Sunday….

#184 Long-Time Lurker on 04.05.20 at 8:16 pm

Time to start a rock band, Garth! Call it Garth and the Bandits! Garth on lead vocal & guitar. Dorothy on keyboard. Doug on drums. Ryan on backup guitar and vocals. Sinan on bass. Did you keep your spandex?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrZHPOeOxQQ

#185 Chris on 04.05.20 at 8:16 pm

What do you mean by saying the economy will be in full force by autumn? Full employment? Sp500 back to feb levels? Please elaborate

Now where did I say that? My reference was to a recovery being in full force by the autumn. The economy and markets will eventually restore fully, but not instantaneously. Garth

#186 Chris on 04.05.20 at 8:25 pm

Fair enough I may have read that wrong. But what does a recovery in full force mean anyway? Im a numbers guy , please provide an example.

#187 Terry on 04.05.20 at 8:33 pm

God Bless and God Speed Ron. I was great working with you.

https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/family-urges-donations-to-london-covid-19-fund-after-virus-kills-beloved-father-of-triplets

#188 Smoking Man on 04.05.20 at 8:33 pm

Recovery sooner than most think.

Hospitals are empty. Anyone that dies now it’s coronsvirus.

Few months ago no one trusted MSM, now they own the store…

Sad….

#189 Nonplused on 04.05.20 at 8:33 pm

#170 Gerald on 04.05.20 at 7:31 pm
Was thinking of buying a new truck before this virus arrived. It’s too soon but at some point I may low ball (way low) my way into a new truck. They will need the cash flow in a couple of months. If not a new truck, maybe a new home closer to the kids so they won’t have to drive too far to shovel my snow.

———————-

I don’t know how far car prices will drop, because like land, they aren’t making any more of it (for now). They probably won’t fully restart the factories until they see the demand. It would be foolish for them to do so, because selling cars at a loss would only make matters worse for them.

And so far as I remember, there were already dealer incentives before this whole thing started. I had to take my truck in for a recall notice in January (that I had been sitting on for a year) and since it was only going to take a couple hours and the show room was empty I decided to take a test drive. Loved the car (Grand Cherokee) but expressed no interest in buying. Well the incentives fell from the roof! The only thing they didn’t want was cash. 15% off sticker if you financed though. This was before. I think for the next while we will be referring to things as “before” and “after”. Once we get to “after”.

But I don’t expect the factories to restart until the cars start moving off the lot, so there is a bottom to prices. And it is right around where it was “before”.

Remember folks, income is unpredictable, but prices are sticky.

#190 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 8:34 pm

@#181 CalgarySocialDistanceNazi

“Really? You want people to ignore the 6 foot spacing guidelines that have been all over the news 24/7 while simultaneously picking up a hitchhiker? And then you vent on the blog about this? What does this even have to do with a financial/real estate blog?”
++++

You do realize he was joking right?
My gawd.

#191 Treaure Island CEO - 634.88 Troy Ounces of Gold within Bicycle Distance on 04.05.20 at 8:43 pm

Anyone living in Vancouver learned to cut their own hair long ago. No disposable income for that and the Walmart clipper set only costs $30 for a good 10-year service life.

#192 Nonplused on 04.05.20 at 8:46 pm

#186 Long-Time Lurker on 04.05.20 at 8:16 pm
Time to start a rock band, Garth! Call it Garth and the Bandits! Garth on lead vocal & guitar. Dorothy on keyboard. Doug on drums. Ryan on backup guitar and vocals. Sinan on bass. Did you keep your spandex?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrZHPOeOxQQ

——————–

I think Twisted Sister is my favorite big hair band. Not because I had any use for their music, but because they were so cynical about exploiting the whole thing. “Ya we are the rebellion, but we signed with a major label”.

Anyway don’t forget Bandit on background howls and rhythmic barking.

#193 Swanson on 04.05.20 at 8:46 pm

Garth’s old clients made it onto the New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/style/fire-movement-stock-market-coronavirus.html

They sound like they will be fine though since they are frugal.

#194 Figure it Out on 04.05.20 at 8:50 pm

“When the final accounting is done on this fiasco it is quite likely the death toll from the virus will be far less than the death toll from the deliberate destruction of the economy.”

First, there will never be a definitive, final accounting. It’ll be “uncle had the bug but they never tested him” vs. “cousin OD’d, but it was the shutdown that broke his heart” x 500,000.

Second, though they’d be loath to say it, I’d bet plenty of upper-class middles would trade the deaths of 50-100k lowers against the deaths of 20-30k uppers.

What scares people about the bug isn’t the deaths, it is the arbitrary randomness of the deaths.
– We live with opioid and alcohol deaths because it’s mainly the poors
– lung cancer deaths because we don’t smoke
– auto deaths because we don’t drink and drive, much, and aren’t out and about in the middle of the night
– flu deaths because the olds were going to die anyway…

And on and on. People rationalize COVID as being no biggie because:
– It’s just the olds, again
– preexisting conditions
– Italians hug and kiss too much
– I don’t eat bat, somebody else’s fault
– fake media is making it all up/exaggerating/hoax
– liberal city/apartment dweller thing, and I’m red state suburban
– “covered in Jesus’s blood” https://twitter.com/DevonESawa/status/1246724587770896384

#195 In Garth, Not God We Trust on 04.05.20 at 8:53 pm

#140 MF on 04.05.20 at 5:34 pm
#134 Last Gasp on 04.05.20 at 4:53 pm

“I too think Garth is incorrect. No one can predict the future. Garth has been right on lots of things, but wrong on some biggies as well…”

You know you are just plain lucky that the all wise, all knowing, all encompassing financial sage, oracle of Lunenberg, lone voice of reason crying out in the Canadian financial wilderness, sagacious financial tea leaf reading prognosticator, denouncer of financial charlatans, gadfly to Canada’s parliamentarians, former minister of National Revenue, long time serving MP, NYTimes bestselling author and all round jolly good fellow doesn’t zap you with a bolt of lightning for posting what you just posted….

#196 Gary on 04.05.20 at 8:59 pm

When the lockdown is finally over who will invest in Canada, or will the exodus of investment continue.

We can’t build a pipeline to our own refinery’s
We are increasing Carbon taxes.
We are still a part of the Paris Climate Accord
We let protesters block our Railways
Any resource development has to be approved by Ottawa
The Tides Foundation is part of our Government

What or Who will create jobs in this new economic age, saving the Wales will not save us.

#197 Cal Guy on 04.05.20 at 9:13 pm

Another cruise ship docks in Miami. Don’t expect this to go away soon. People made silly choices and now gov’t has to bail them out to bring them home. Think they will all self-quarantine? Human nature tells me nope. I hope if and when this happens agin, it will be a full fledged lockdown immediately. Most of us in Canada have been for three weeks, but borders have been open and more people coming in from all over. I wonder if these global supply chains we hear of will change much when this is over. Could we shift more of the “stuff” we get from China to Mexico? Have more a true North American Union.

#198 1255 on 04.05.20 at 9:17 pm

No – you’re wrong. There’s no pent up demand! That is absolutely ridiculous. This completely different than 2008/09. The world has stopped. Millions have lost their jobs – many may not have a job for a while. People are not thinking about buying new ‘stuff’ – their trying to figure out how to survive the next month or even the next week.

#199 gerald on 04.05.20 at 9:21 pm

SAIL AWAY..
Driving to the steelhead river today, my CV joint blew out on a corner.

I went out to the main road with this sign:

CV PROBLEM
NEED RIDE

Ended up walking home 12km. What’s up with that?

_________—-______—–______—–________—-___

CV (CORONA VIRUS) problem

#200 fishman on 04.05.20 at 9:27 pm

Afraid I might be a little late but Garth, you don’t want to let the wife cut your hair. First, as a women, she thinks that mens haircuts are simple compared to womens hairdos, which they are. Hasn’t factored in that simple like minimalist interior design pops out the simplest mistake into a glaring error. So now you got a bad hair cut. What’s next? Lie & say “oh no, its looks fine”. She’ knows your fibbing. That just digs you deeper. And she’s got to look at you everyday. Also endure her friends giggling behind her back on how she made you look nerdy. Which will be true. That makes her feel bad. Crack a joke & say the only difference between a bad haircut & a good haircut is two weeks. Your reaching. Best bet is to stall. Get a pro.

#201 Sold Out on 04.05.20 at 9:31 pm

It looks as though the Swedish ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus experiment maybe almost over.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/sweden-prepares-to-tighten-coronavirus-measures-as-death-toll-climbs

#202 FAKE NEWS on 04.05.20 at 9:41 pm

HOPE YOUR RIGHT GARTH!!

I need me a brand new VETTE!!!

VROOM……VROOMMMMMM

#203 Jager on 04.05.20 at 9:51 pm

I’m unsurprised to see they trotted Kissinger out for an opinion piece in the WSJ to pump globalism. I wonder if Henry could adequately address my concern?

Many are surprised to learn that global governance did have an antecedent. More than once.

They were called empires.

Assyria, Egypt, Babylon, Persia, Greece (only up to Alexander as after his death the empire quickly began to breakup) and finally Rome.

In essence they were global governments (though much less efficient than that currently envisioned). They ruled the planet virtually unchallenged until their demise and importantly shaped their world’s art/architecture, commerce, education, laws/justice and religion.

The takeaway?

Each of these previous empires (prototype world governments) was ruled by an all powerful and often despotic authority. Personal rights as we know them today were virtually nonexistent. Property ownership subject to class (social status). Women faced absolute authority twice over. First at home and then within the empire. All or most rights were ceded to the all powerful state from birth.

What’s old is new.

Do the proponents of globalism (world government) envision safeguards to individual rights should this darkness come again?

#204 Terry on 04.05.20 at 10:09 pm

The restrictions and lock downs will be lifted shortly. Pent-up demand for things we need will be high until those needs can be filled. Then the psychology of what the politicians did to us will cause a shift in attitudes towards spending and saving. That’s when we will know the true cost of what was a HUGE mistake in shutting everything down. Secondly, accountability courts for the medical experts whose models were wrong and deeply flawed, the Main Stream Media who pumped the panic and fear campaign, the lying cheating Chinese Communist Party hardliners who hid this from the world for months and the Politicians who blindly followed them all and led us down this rabbit hole. Finally………shame on the American people for not rising up to stop them! Why do you think America’s founding Fathers created the Constitution specifically with the Second Amendment in place!

#205 MF on 04.05.20 at 10:23 pm

#166 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 7:25 pm

My parents did extremely well in life.

You’re right. It is genetics.

MF

#206 Sold Out on 04.05.20 at 10:26 pm

Bolsanaro tried to deny the virus like his idol, Dim Donnie. It’s not going well for him either.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-a/brazils-bolsonaro-isolated-weakened-by-coronavirus-denial-idUSKBN21K333

https://www.brasilwire.com/does-brazil-already-have-a-new-acting-president/

#207 Dr V on 04.05.20 at 10:40 pm

63 dogman01 – Thank you for the reply. I don’t disagree with your points.

But my question is what are we going to do about it?

I don’t want a job manufacturing coffee cups or other “China crap”.

#208 bobby13 on 04.05.20 at 10:51 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k05b8aGDCNI

to further bill g this Doctor reveals whats going on very intresting

#209 Sold Out on 04.05.20 at 11:01 pm

Even the CEO of Novartis downplays the efficacy of his own product, hydroxychloroquine, in treating Covid19. But for some reason, he still donated 30 million doses to the US national stockpile.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/novartis-ceo-cautions-efficacy-coronavirus-treatment

Remember when Novartis tried to buy access to Trump via Michael Cohen?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-novartis/trump-ex-lawyer-cohen-drugmaker-novartis-wanted-him-to-lobby-he-refused-idUSKCN1QG2DU

What do you wanna bet that Novartis/Sandoz stock is about to go parabolic?

#210 Fused on 04.05.20 at 11:02 pm

https://www.businessinsider.com/tiger-tests-positive-for-covid-19-bronx-zoo-in-nyc-2020-4

I guess we have to test and quarantine all the animals now.

#211 bullwinkle on 04.05.20 at 11:10 pm

#46 YouKnowWho,

The House of Lancaster is also not offering take-out, but may have curbside pick-up.

#212 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 04.05.20 at 11:31 pm

#172 Nonplused on 04.03.20 at 8:08 pm

I am out of double salted dropies (a Dutch candy), and the only place I know to buy them by the kilogram is in Bragg Creek.

——————————————

Try Edelweiss Village in NW Calgary near SAIT. Quirky family-owned little giftstore/groceteria/deli/cafe selling German, Dutch, Polish and Scandinavian imports. They have a range of Dutch salted candies in bulk.

#213 not so liquid in calgary on 04.05.20 at 11:34 pm

Garth, you’re a dead ringer for Joe Exotic ;-)

#214 Doghouse Dweller on 04.05.20 at 11:35 pm

Norman Levine Top Pick – signal = BUY, price target = unlimited

TSX:YEN Ishares 2x Daily Bull Pent-up Demand ETF

#215 Harley Tempke on 04.05.20 at 11:39 pm

We have to stop saying “ This is no different from the past financial calamities”. This is a pandemic, not an accounting error”. This can’t be fixed with stimulus. This is either going to be killed by a yet discovered vaccine or we’ll face years of rolling death. Dead people don’t buy new cars. The future of investing is strictly for long-eyed stock pickers with gutsy grit , emotionless accountancy. Corona will stab at the index for years but in the face of adversity a few brave companies will gain ground. Bonds will continue to offer hopelessness in blind safety unabated.

China has tried to put on a brave face by restarting factories, but the product just sits in the dock because there’s no one to buy it. It’s not about factory production obviously. Hoping this will end with a surgical V that’s saves us all is not a strategy. Hope is good, but it won’t put a dime in your pocket.

Hope, emotional strength, strong resolute leadership is what Queen Elizabeth gives us. God bless her. Do you remember when she spoke for our country? We weren’t the bitter ‘Post National’ Trudeau spittle of a people as described today by our leftist bureaucrats and globalist overlords. When the Queen spoke, people stopped and listened. Our “Bearded One”, not so .

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52176222

And BTW, the schizophrenic WHO has once again spun its stance as it has more times than the bed ridden puking demon infested actress of “The Exorcist” fame and announced that keeping the sick off aircraft is a good thing and wearing a mask is now necessary, so heed. It might save your life.

#216 alf on 04.05.20 at 11:51 pm

#206 Terry on 04.05.20 at 10:09 pm

—-

Sure dude! In an ideal world maybe.
More likely, justice will be meted out in exactly the same way it was after the Global Financial Crisis.
Divide and conquer part 2.

#217 Off Duty on 04.06.20 at 12:00 am

My barber has only ever accepted cash . I sure hope he saved a large %age of the taxes he is not paying on the income he is not claiming. Nice enough guy but don’t feel bad for him. Hopefully he read the book “The Wealthy Barber “!!

#218 Dirty Dan on 04.06.20 at 1:23 am

> And it shall return with a frenzy once the immediate crisis has passed. Pent-up demand, relief and optimism will trump worries about personal debt, especially when money is so cheap. This is human nature.

I’ll believe we’re in a real pandemic when the price of escorts starts to dive.

No middle men, no management, no government regulations, no training and no barrier to entry… the true barometer of any local economy. And they haven’t dropped prices at all!

#219 Calgary Mark1 on 04.06.20 at 1:23 am

#192 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 8:34 pm
@#181 CalgarySocialDistanceNazi

“Really? You want people to ignore the 6 foot spacing guidelines that have been all over the news 24/7 while simultaneously picking up a hitchhiker? And then you vent on the blog about this? What does this even have to do with a financial/real estate blog?”
++++

You do realize he was joking right?
My gawd.

—————-

Yup, CV joke. Totally Hilarious. IMO Sail Away already wastes enough time with his “regular” posts. Dont need comedy hour too

#220 Longterm on 04.06.20 at 1:29 am

Bill Rees. As usual, telling it like it is:

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/04/06/The-Earth-Is-Telling-Us-We-Must-Rethink-Our-Growth-Society/

#221 Not So New guy on 04.06.20 at 1:30 am

It is said that misdiagnosis by doctors kills more people every year than guns do.

Are we about to see that experiment on a mass scale?

#222 Irish Stew on 04.06.20 at 1:39 am

Thank you for the article – sometimes a light of hope in bad days.

No one will really know how it will play out – but the economy cannot run on zero for too long.

Also, to all conspiracy theorists – using youtube as a reference link is not a very validating credential.

#223 Harley Tempke on 04.06.20 at 2:18 am

When even the most vociferous Trump Hate rags like The Atlantic wake up and realize that Trump Hate is wrong headed you know there’s a Sea-Change afoot in the whacko left political architecture. Me Trudeau take note. We haven’t heard a word from Greta, Suzuki, Butts, Soros, why? You’ve got a brain? Use it.

The Atlantic: Consider the Possibility That Trump Is Right About China.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/consider-possibility-trump-right-china/609493/?utm_source=feed

#224 Where's My Charity Money Going Galeneau? To Barbados? on 04.06.20 at 2:47 am

Unfrigginbelievable!!!
Just watching the CTV Sunday night news and who do I see in an ad, venerated billionaire Galen Weston, owner of Roblaws, convicted in an ~$400mm tax dodge (2018 CRA court decision, originally revealed in 2015 wikileaks (https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/loblaws-tax-barbados-1.4816973, https://business.financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/loblaw-delivers-closing-arguments-in-437-million-tax-dispute-with-cra)), begging to give to his “charity” to give for the covid pandemic.
Now, is this his time to repent, or is most of this heading the way of the Clinton Foundation’s Haiti Charity, which suspiciously headed to Switzerland just before the Trump election. Or is it to pay for the extra couple $/hour he is paying so his workers will keep his stores running while risking their lives?
I wanna see the numbers!!!!!!!
This is the company, when I asked the manager of the local store to produce the figures which showed dispersion of donated funds, would not even come down to speak with me.
I asked because CBC’s Marketplace had a show on charities and said to ask for numbers on where the money goes because they are supposed to have them available at the check-outs per “THE LAW”.
When I asked they stopped the automatic choice on the self serve checkouts, but they have been back for a couple months now.
I’m so disappointed and mad that he hasn’t paid back that money from the CRA decision yet, he’s appealing!!!

#225 Where's My Charity Money Going Galeneau? To Barbados? on 04.06.20 at 2:50 am

More history on Loblaw CRA tax case:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/loblaws-tax-barbados-1.4816973

#226 Where's My Charity Money Going Galeneau? To Barbados? on 04.06.20 at 3:00 am

Also wonder if Loblaws is supplying their front end workers with PPE’s?
Please advise……
My guess is no.

#227 MARK POETSCH on 04.06.20 at 4:56 am

This is the START of the EVERYTHING BUBBLE BURSTING.
We’re not going to recover from it this time !! .

#228 Steve French on 04.06.20 at 5:36 am

Pray for Smoking Man!

SteveO.

#229 Wrk.dover on 04.06.20 at 5:53 am

Based on airlines cutting 90% of flights to NY and companies facing liquidity crunch the Dow Futures are up 900 points.

But of course!

It’s good news week! Trump said as much!

#230 BillyBon on 04.06.20 at 6:41 am

#184 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 8:10 pm
damn spell check
5 “Twoonies”

did anyone notice?

:)

==================================================

I noticed (apparently, OCD is a desirable trait in airline pilots) but thought maybe you paid 5 bucks on snacks or something.

5 CAD pesos don’t go far in a gas station mini-mart these days…

#231 BillyBob on 04.06.20 at 6:43 am

Apparently though, my OCD does not extend to spelling my nom de plume correctly…damn the lack of edit function…

#232 SquareNinja on 04.06.20 at 6:55 am

#6 Figmund Sreud on 04.05.20 at 11:26 am
The pandemic? It will fade, of course.
________________________

Of course it will. Still, … most interesting:

“Did Bill Gates Just Reveal the Reason Behind the Lock-Downs?”

https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/04/did-bill-gates-just-reveal-the-reason-behind-the-lock-downs/

… dunno. Have-a-read. Have-a-hear. Ponder after, …

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, AB.

***** ***** *****

What a disingenuous article… the kind of article that confuses the less sharp-witted in order to pull the wool over their eyes. Conspiracy theory…

Anyway, this point of view is purely an American one. After all, vaccines are FREE in most of the world…

#233 Jager on 04.06.20 at 7:11 am

Has a faint light appeared at the end of the tunnel?

Looks to be one of the better starts for a Monday since the trouble started.

I sense that were turning a corner in these recent crises.
Any news now which is less negative is definitely a positive.

#234 Garth Turner, Order of Canada on 04.06.20 at 7:52 am

Attention blog dogs across this great land, I propose that when the dust settles, and it will, the gifted mystic, all knowing oracle of Lunenberg, financial prognosticator without equal who runs this blog of comfort in times of physical and financial distress, be given the Order of Canada for being the calming, sagacious guide for millions of Canadians lost in the financial wilderness. Blog dogs, are you on board with my proposal?

#235 cto on 04.06.20 at 8:11 am

“The world will be a little changed, but the fundamentals will remain. Folks still want clothes, cars, new iPhones, houses, vacations… and haircuts.”

Unless China changes a lot of that when they become the new world power.

Masks are a good example, all these western countries fighting over masks. there was a time when Canada had the industrial capacity to mass manufacture such a thing. No more, we blame the United states for saying” our masks are ours”…(seemingly the only other country outside of China to actually make such an inane thing and obviously not fast enough.

China seems to be able to effortlessly make 1000000s of them with their eyes closed.

#236 physicist on 04.06.20 at 8:13 am

Folks,

Like the covid-19 data itself, the data from the comment section must be interpreted carefully.

In reality, on the continuum of responses, the true severity of this thing is likely somewhere right in the middle of Sail Away and MF…..

#237 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.20 at 8:25 am

@#228 Where’s my charity money Galeneau?

I’m just curious.
Do you see conspiracy’s every time you go to the bathroom and use toilet paper?
(Since it was obviously manufactured by the pulp and paper industrial complex…..the bleach in the paper allows them to track you….)

Or when you finish, wash your hands and look in the mirror?

#238 Dharma Bum on 04.06.20 at 8:30 am

Way worse disruptions have occurred to shake up societies and economies throughout human history.

Yet, we’re still here. Through all of the ups and downs and turnarounds, we are still here. Hmmmmm.

The only “difference” now is that too many of us are cowardly entitled pussies (meeeeowwww) who hysterically freak out over the slightest thing and head for zee hills.

Like every crisis that has occurred since the dawn of man, it’ll pass, and we’ll reinvent ourselves in some way shape or form, and carry on. The innovative and intelligent will thrive, while the masses plod along and grind it out. Same as it ever was.

Suck it up, buttercup.

#239 Phylis on 04.06.20 at 8:37 am

Still giggling. SA you just keep casting it out there and keep reeling them in. This is entertaining.

#240 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.20 at 8:38 am

Apparently world wide pandemics and money losing corporations dont compute when your the head of a govt employee union…

https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/04/05/ferry-workers-threaten-legal-action/

Ferry passengers down 80%
Ferry staff estimated to infected.
BC Ferries losing millions per week running empty ships.

How dare BC Ferries lay off workers like the rest of the world…..

Keep running the Ferries at a horrendous loss to the Taxpayer because ….. we deserve our jobs.

That, in a nutshell, is the mindset of the average , unionized, govt worker.

Myopic, self absorbed, over indulged, whining fools with absolutely no regard for anyone but themselves and their undeserved pay cheques.

I’m sure the rest of the laid off public will be very understanding………

I cant wait to see how hard we all get hit with higher taxes and user fees when this economic shite show is over

#241 UmiouiuS on 04.06.20 at 8:43 am

#236 Garth Turner, Order of Canada on 04.06.20 at 7:52 am
Attention blog dogs across this great land, I propose that when the dust settles, and it will, the gifted mystic, all knowing oracle of Lunenberg, financial prognosticator without equal who runs this blog of comfort in times of physical and financial distress, be given the Order of Canada for being the calming, sagacious guide for millions of Canadians lost in the financial wilderness.
Blog dogs, are you on board with my proposal?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Abs-olutely ..!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appointment_to_the_Order_of_Canada

#242 BrianT on 04.06.20 at 8:49 am

DELETED

#243 Pgljoy on 04.06.20 at 8:55 am

After wading through all the doom and gloom comments here and feeling the need for a shower after reading them.Question .. how close to feel we are to the point between despondency and depression on the market cycle chart? The bride and myself are looking to buy some good dividend stocks.Over the next little while.

#244 cramar on 04.06.20 at 9:15 am

Here’s were we disagree Garth.

You say the world will be “little changed” post-covid. I see the world NEVER being the same going forward. The world did change after 9/11 and the Great Recession. Ten million Americans lost their homes during the Great Recession. This time the unemployment and homelessness will be staggering. The economy was moribund for a decade after the GR. There will be a new normal now for sure. Especially economically. Depression-era unemployment, poverty, bankruptcies. For example, 1/3 to 1/2 the restaurants in North America are predicted to not reopen.

You say the pent-up demand will stimulated the economy. I see it initially, but only from an economy firing on 3/4 cylinders. Those who were one paycheck from insolvency will be insolvent. The chickens will come home to roost! Those who put off rents, car payments, utilities for months will now have to pay them. This means they will NOT be buying consumer items. The homeless, destitute, and unemployed will not be buying goods and services.

A new normal for sure! It certainly will not be business as usual.

So many morose people here will be eating so much crow. – Garth

#245 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 9:16 am

Just a little note that will brighten the day of many who frequent this site.
With real estate sales slowing down to a slow crawl just imagine how many of the less qualified agents will give up on the profession and move on to more fruitful employment. Thus leaving a more professional group to serve the public.

#246 Blog Bunny on 04.06.20 at 9:17 am

Can not wait to start travelling again. Have 3 trips to Europe planned for this summer and fall. It should get better after Easter.

#247 TurnerNation on 04.06.20 at 9:18 am

The Military has just now been deployed in Toronto BTW.
Don’t worry – consumer spending will return any day now – any day!!
Papers please, we are the enemy.
People haven’t yet realized it but what’s but what’s been unleashed is Collective Punishment.
If you worked hard your whole life, payed taxes, maybe even served your country, and you need a hip or knee replacement? Denied.
Dental work? Denied.
A simply haircut to maintain your dignity? Denied.
City police are threatening and ticketing people who simply stop or sit in public. Sitting down on public transit is *perfectly okay*. Still think this is about keeping us safe from a germ? I got news for you.
As the book 1984 people are perfectly begging for their enslavement now.

The military has not been deployed. You just lost the remainder of your tenuous creds. – Garth

#248 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 9:21 am

#140 MF on 04.05.20 at 5:34 pm
A huge segment of the population with lots of wealth and spending power (baby boomers) is spooked. My parents included. They haven’t left the house in weeks. I bring them all groceries and anything else they need.
//////////////

Well MF, I guess since your parents aren’t leaving the house you at least have use of their car and you don’t have to TTC it anymore.

#249 YouKnowWho on 04.06.20 at 9:27 am

More of this MSM!

We need pressure to be applied for these answers. Well done Globe and Mail.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-lets-zoom-xi-he-has-questions-to-answer/

#250 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.20 at 9:31 am

Hmmmmm

Perhaps all those out of work BC Ferries employees can go to the Okanagan this Summer and pick fruit…..

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN21O179

#251 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 9:44 am

#159 Upenuff on 04.05.20 at 6:41 pm
Any car dealers out there???

Are you getting a feel that Garth’s 2008-09 chart may come to fruition? Any talk of that on the floor?
//////////////

I was selling used back in 2008-09 and what we really noticed was that any gas guzzler was being shunned. Prices at the auction dropped tremendously for those types of vehicles, but for the small Civic type cars there was almost no difference.
What is different this time is gas is super cheap.

Speaking of gas just a heads up for dirty tricks on pricing.
About two weeks ago I filled up at the Husky station and regular gas was about 75 cents or something. I glanced at the pricing on the mid level and the high octane and they were 40 and 50 cents more per litre.
I wonder how many people even bother to look at the posted price at the pump when the sign out front says 75 cents.

#252 NoName on 04.06.20 at 9:44 am

Yesterday wife was walking around house looking around, so.i aksd her what is she doing. She sad, you know what, our house does not have any character.
I sad you are mistaken honey, there is a one just before your eyes, you are just not seeing it…

Than I went on and sad how great it would be that I was born rich instead of good looking, shortly after she mentioned new kitchen. She left room laughing.

Now that genes were mentioned, Interesting read

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/the-role-of-luck-in-life-success-is-far-greater-than-we-realized/

#253 JB on 04.06.20 at 9:54 am

#190 Smoking Man on 04.05.20 at 8:33 pm

Recovery sooner than most think.

Hospitals are empty. Anyone that dies now it’s coronsvirus.

Few months ago no one trusted MSM, now they own the store…

Sad….
………………………………………………………………
Actually Smoking Man it is sad my wife has seen three people die at her hospital. She is nurse here in Toronto and there is an ethical reason the hospitals are pretty damn empty. She said all unnecessary interactions between the outside and inside persons have been furloughed. This is for the patience safety and the staff’s safety. All elective surgery has been postponed. Only serious emergency treatment and critical care situations are allowed. Even in your case with brain cancer they will not even consider bringing you in but would refer you to the major hospitals for cancer treatment. My wife said that they have had a contingency plan in place since SARS back 15 years ago that maps all of this out. It is a triage system that very quickly decides if you are first infected, next are you symptomatic or asymptomatic and if sick do you require need ancillary healthcare. If it is not a respiratory issue then you are usually sent packing home to ride the virus out. The deluge of COVID-19 patients could easily overwhelm the healthcare system as this virus is three times more contagious than your traditional flu. So I have to say I don’t know how they spin the news on the internet but my wife sees what is going on every day and it is not pretty. BTW She is staying at another nurse’s home near the hospital and I get the kiddies. Luckily my mother is at my home now to help. We only FaceTime now, it sucks especially for my little ones.

#254 Cto on 04.06.20 at 10:04 am

Garth I see you’re taking real estate has changed.

Now you realize Canada has nothing left. we are just a service-oriented economy servicing the real estate industry.
That’s it.

That’s why the government propping it up,
And will continue to until the very last dollar of debt.

#255 calgary rip off on 04.06.20 at 10:04 am

Thanks for the post.

About 4 years ago I got a haircut at Great Clips. Paid around $15+tax for it. I got home and my wife said “what is that?!” That Christmas she got me a self head hair cutter. Kind of like a lawn mower. I have been using it ever since. It does a nice job. A nice product from Walmart. Now I don’t need to go out, pay a tip, or wait. Saves time and money. Likely the demand for these self haircutters will increase as will the bald look which I don’t yet have. I don’t like someone else I don’t know touching my head and I don’t know if the scissors etc are clean.

Other demand is up: Vitamin C was sold out of the Sarcee NW Costco. Vitamin D3 oddly was not. Perhaps that message was missed for the sheep and the mainstream media. Also on stock plentiful was Coconut Oil. My wife commented that Vitamin C was sold out on Amazon Canada. Not so. I order the expensive Liposomal and powdered formula think it was around $110 Canadian. The regular abscorbic acid was sold out on Amazon. The order should arrive on Thursday. The other order for dog waterproof mattress covers and my daughters shotput arrived at the door sunday at 5 pm. I took a sterile wipe cloth and wiped down the box outside then my hands before opening the door and coming back inside.

Smart people should invest in Vitamin C companies. Will there be a vaccine? Yes. Will it always be effective? No. So likely Vitamin C will be popular from now forevermore until CRISPR can modulate DNA so humans make Vitamin C like my two Chihuahuas.

It appears the Chinese wet markets may have reopened. Expect in the future more Coronaviruses likely more deadly and virulent than the current one. Given that antibiotics don’t work against viruses researching of immunity, nutrition and decisions is prudent.

Until there are no viruses and diseases I will continue my social distancing that I learned in Seattle in the early 1990’s aka “Seattle Freeze”.

#256 JB on 04.06.20 at 10:05 am

#242 Blog Bunny on 04.06.20 at 9:17 am

Can not wait to start travelling again. Have 3 trips to Europe planned for this summer and fall. It should get better after Easter
………………………………………………………….
Ok Donald!
lmfao

BTW If you go to Germany Hasenpfeffer is a traditional German stew made from marinated rabbit or hare, cut into stewing-meat sized pieces and braised with onions and a marinade made from wine and vinegar.
Delicious.

#257 JB on 04.06.20 at 10:11 am

#246 cramar on 04.06.20 at 9:15 am

Here’s were we disagree Garth.

You say the world will be “little changed” post-covid. I see the world NEVER being the same going forward. The world did change after 9/11 and the Great Recession. Ten million Americans lost their homes during the Great Recession. This time the unemployment and homelessness will be staggering. The economy was moribund for a decade after the GR. There will be a new normal now for sure. Especially economically. Depression-era unemployment, poverty, bankruptcies. For example, 1/3 to 1/2 the restaurants in North America are predicted to not reopen.

You say the pent-up demand will stimulated the economy. I see it initially, but only from an economy firing on 3/4 cylinders. Those who were one paycheck from insolvency will be insolvent. The chickens will come home to roost! Those who put off rents, car payments, utilities for months will now have to pay them. This means they will NOT be buying consumer items. The homeless, destitute, and unemployed will not be buying goods and services.

A new normal for sure! It certainly will not be business as usual.

So many morose people here will be eating so much crow. – Garth
……………………………………………………………
Cramer could be right and if so then Crow will be a dinner item with rabbits and rats.
I tend to think there will be a rebound after the scorched earth policies have been ended. I’m looking forward to a vacation somewhere besides my backyard.

#258 Not So New guy on 04.06.20 at 10:17 am

#245 Pgljoy on 04.06.20 at 8:55 am

After wading through all the doom and gloom comments here and feeling the need for a shower after reading them.Question .. how close to feel we are to the point between despondency and depression on the market cycle chart? The bride and myself are looking to buy some good dividend stocks.Over the next little while.

==============================

I’d wait a little longer the GTPMI™ was below 200 earlier but popped above 250 in a late morning surge

There is still great uncertainty in the markets…

#259 MF on 04.06.20 at 10:18 am

#250 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 9:21 am

Agreed. Now if only they actually had nice cars to drive this would have worked out well.

My dad believes in buying cars outright and driving them until they die, so you can guess what kind of sleek hot rods they have in the garage.

MF

#260 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 10:18 am

#255 JB on 04.06.20 at 9:54 am

There is footage all over the internet of these empty hospitals. Entry, waiting room and even the hall ways. Ambulance drivers sleeping in the parking lot. The testing tents are empty. The hospitals ships in NY and LA are empty so is the central park mash hospital.

The MSM is saying its a war room with people lined up like cattle to get in and bodies lining the streets.

Not seeing it and the actuals vs the models show they got this wrong by a factor of 3 or 4.

Europe already looking at opening their economy now with deaths flatlining. Same will happen here in about a week to 10.

Garth is going to have enough blog material for another decade after this.

#261 TurnerNation on 04.06.20 at 10:20 am

Attention Citizens. No cause for alarm. Trust the authorities. Here are today’s published public company layoffs. Keep saving for your forthcoming consumer spending binge.

–CAE lays off 2,600 staff; 900 moved to part time suspends dividend
–High Tide closes Ontario retail stores, lays off staff

#262 Figure it Out on 04.06.20 at 10:26 am

“The only “difference” now is that too many of us are cowardly entitled pussies (meeeeowwww) who hysterically freak out over the slightest thing and head for zee hills.”

Local blog dog unwittingly summarises the setup for the Decameron (pestilence porn, Italy, c. 1350). plus ça change…

#263 Cool for Cats! on 04.06.20 at 10:29 am

Bronx Zoo Tiger Is Sick With the Coronavirus
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/nyregion/bronx-zoo-tiger-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage

The giraffes say no worries, it is just a flu and besides it can’t reach us up here.

TurnerNation is wrong. This is more like animal farm than 1984.

Does Felix know about this?

Cats keep your distance and stay indoors.

#264 Sail Away on 04.06.20 at 10:32 am

#254 NoName on 04.06.20 at 9:44 am

Re: luck

Yes, luck is definitely important. It’s equally important to exploit the luck to your benefit.

For example: Covid. Lucky or not lucky?

For my business, this could be a major inflection point. Many competitors were already leveraged when the flu started and are now deep in the red while maintaining all staff. We never carry debt, immediately cut staff, and are taking full advantage of all gov’t handouts. Most of our work is gov’t contracts, so the coming giant taxation could be beneficial.

Personally, this has been good for my portfolio and it’s appearing more and more likely I bought in heavily at the exact bottom two weeks ago.

So, is Covid one of those random strokes of luck in life? I’d say the signs are promising. Who else stands to score a win here?

#265 Trojan House on 04.06.20 at 10:45 am

#255 JB on 04.06.20 at 9:54 am

“Even in your case with brain cancer they will not even consider bringing you in but would refer you to the major hospitals for cancer treatment.”

This will be side effect, the deaths that have nothing to do with CVD-19 but are directly related to the shutdown of the healthcare system. Are those people’s lives not as important as the people’s live who die from the virus? How many will die from because of the economic shutdown? Are those lives not important as well?

Anyway, it will be interesting to see the fallout of this whole situation, which could possibly be much more than those who die from the virus.

#266 MF on 04.06.20 at 10:46 am

“So many morose people here will be eating so much crow. – Garth”

-Yeah just like we “ate crow” when Donald Trump got elected :D

I won’t even mention interest rates..please don’t DELETE I repent!

Decent CBC article about the aftermath of covid:

“Though it seems like deflationary end times to some right now, the COVID-19 scare is going to pass, and we will be left with monetary and fiscal bazookas having been fired,” worries market analyst Gary Tanashian on the site Seeking Alpha.”

“Existing bonds, a great investment over the past decade as interest rates fell lower and lower, will no longer be good to hold. The value of assets such as housing will fall as borrowing costs rise. Outstanding consumer loans will become a bigger burden.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/pittis-coronavirus-inflation-1.5521267

MF

#267 YouKnowWho on 04.06.20 at 10:48 am

Just listened to Dr. Steve on Opie’s podcast. Long story, let’s just say this guy knows his stuff and historically has been very enjoyable to listen to over the years. The more you listen to this guy the more you learn about how much this guy knows and how hands on he is with medicine vs. these showbiz Docs.

He predicts 9 more months of social distancing/isolation, and explains in detail why. Once you listen to this, you can see it’s hard to argue this.

https://omny.fm/shows/opie-radio-1/coronavirus-dr-steve-w-latest-accurate-info

#268 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 10:58 am

#257 calgary rip off on 04.06.20 at 10:04 am

It appears the Chinese wet markets may have reopened. Expect in the future more Coronaviruses likely more deadly and virulent than the current one.

—————-

The climate will thank the viruses.

Quite a few on here should be in favour of mass human extirpation for that reason, no? And if you’re ready, you can also profit financially.

Win-win.

#269 MF on 04.06.20 at 11:00 am

#262 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 10:18 am

Yeah I think i’ll listen to a front line worker rather than someone who watched a few youtube videos.

MF

#270 the Jaguar on 04.06.20 at 11:00 am

For Dolce Vita and his data collection:
In todays National Post, page two. About why Norway has been so successful with testing and keeping Covid numbers low. Might help explain higher numbers in some places………


Dag Berild, a medical doctor and Associate Professor at Oslo University Hospital, argued that the low level of antibiotic resistant bacteria in Norwegian hospitals may also have played a role in the country’s lower mortality rate.

“The argument for that is that many of the coronavirus pneumonia cases are complicated by bacterial pneumonia, so if that is the case with coronavirus, then patients in a country with a low resistance rate among bacteria would have a better prognosis than those in Italy, where they have an awful lot of resistant bacteria, particularly in Lombardy.”

#271 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 11:00 am

The VIX is half its march highs, so whatever is coming is priced in by now. The bottom was in about 2 weeks ago.

#272 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 11:04 am

From National Review article:

‘Johan Giesecke, Sweden’s former chief epidemiologist and now adviser to the Swedish Health Agency, says that other nations “have taken political, unconsidered actions” that are not justified by the facts.’

And there it is… a breath of sanity and objectivity in this farce.

Read that again: ‘that are not justified by the facts.’

And not your emotional factoids, but real facts.

#273 Don Guillermo on 04.06.20 at 11:06 am

And people stayed at home
And read books
And listened
And they rested
And did exercises
And made art and played
And learned new ways of being
And stopped and listened more deeply.

Someone meditated, someone prayed
Someone met their shadow
And people began to think differently
And people healed.
And in the absence of people who
Lived in ignorant ways
Dangerous, meaningless and heartless,
The earth also began to heal.

And when the danger ended
And people found themselves
They grieved for the dead
And made new choices
And dreamed of new visions
And created new ways of living
And completely healed the earth
Just as they were healed.

by Kathleen O’Mara – 1869

And how did that work out? – Garth

#274 TurnerNation on 04.06.20 at 11:07 am

I am a bearer of bad news today :(
Our rulers are openly saying they want to lock us down another 3 months to a year. Every country is on board with this, our new global order.

https://huddle.today/n-b-n-s-have-lost-38200-foodservice-jobs-due-to-coronavirus-crisis/

A survey by Restaurants Canada found that the COVID-19 crisis has cost the country an estimated 800,000 foodservice jobs since March 1, including 13,700 in New Brunswick and 24,500 in Nova Scotia.
The survey found many of those jobs may not return as nine percent of restaurants in the country won’t reopen, and another 18 percent could close within a month if the situation doesn’t improve.

“Basically, we’ve seen between 60 and 70 percent drop in employment, and 80 percent drop in sales across the industry,” said Luc Erjavec, Atlantic Canada VP for Restaurants Canada.

#275 Doghouse Dweller on 04.06.20 at 11:14 am

If anyone needs an education in pent-up demand, try contacting some one at the Bank , any bank. All you will get is some psychotic runaround from their answering machines that finally hang up on you.

Are they afraid of transmission of the Covid 19 bio-weapon over the phone lines ?

#276 Don Guillermo on 04.06.20 at 11:18 am

by Kathleen O’Mara – 1869
And how did that work out? – Garth

Apparently written by Kitty O’Meara last month.

https://womenyoushouldknow.net/fact-people-stayed-home-viral-poem-kitty-omeara-2020/

Figures. Social distance warriors, using the virus to further an agenda. – Garth

#277 MF on 04.06.20 at 11:18 am

#273 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 11:00 am

Of course the bottom is in. It cost two trillion dollars so you better believe it will rise a few percentage points. It will even go back to all time highs, eventually.

It’s what’s next that everyone should be a little nervous about. What happens during the next downturn. Are we going to see the fed spend another 2 trillion. Is this now the new normal? How long can that go on? What about debt levels? These are questions no one seems to have any answers for, but you better believe they should give you pause about putting money in for the long haul (greater than 5-10 years).

Actually, that’s a good topic for a blog post. I think it’s Doug that routinely says about the growing debt issue “we will deal with it later”. How are we going to deal with it?

MF

#278 NoName on 04.06.20 at 11:19 am

@SA

iam trying to make some lemonade too, sadly for me i’m missing main ingredient, water :-), but I am workin on it…

#279 Not 1st on 04.06.20 at 11:23 am

#271 MF on 04.06.20 at 11:00 am
—-

You can do that too. The filmers interview ambulance drivers, frontline staff, some of the posters are actually doctors and nurses. You can walk right up to the testing tents and see them empty. No ambulances coming in.

Don’t believe what the MSM is feeding you. They have already been caught trying to use Italy ICU footage as standin for US hospitals.

The models I posted show the curves will be less than half as high and half as long. The eggheads got it wrong again and scared everybody senseless. Now we torpedoed our economy.

#280 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 11:24 am

#252 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.20 at 9:31 am

Hmmmmm

Perhaps all those out of work BC Ferries employees can go to the Okanagan this Summer and pick fruit…..

https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN21O179

——————–

Yes! Also tie EI eligibility benefits to a certain measure of picked fruit. Head to the orchards for exercise, sun and fun.

If the work is there and needs to be done, why would able-bodied people be paid to sit on their tushes…

#281 Attrition on 04.06.20 at 11:33 am

#34 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 12:31 pm

Driving to the steelhead river today, my CV joint blew out on a corner.

I went out to the main road with this sign:

CV PROBLEM
NEED RIDE

Ended up walking home 12km. What’s up with that?

Funny, I had a similar but opposite experience.

I posted an add on Craigslist:

“I CAN HELP WITH CV!”

Inbox was flooded with emails and pleas from desperate people, not one of which was looking for help with their resume.

Still scratching my head.

#282 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 11:39 am

And if you think masks are our only confrontation with the americans, just wait. Gets better. Poke the bear.

Trudeau says no security risks in Chinese takeover of Canadian satellite firm

https://business.financialpost.com/technology/trudeau-says-no-security-risks-in-chinese-takeover-of-canadian-satellite-firm-2

#283 Dogman01 on 04.06.20 at 11:39 am

I have called my major Canadian bank Discount Brokerage several times over the last two weeks as I need to something important that cannot be done on line. It is TD Bank.

I think they needed to be called out, their phone system has been down, not just long wait times and after 2 hours dumping you off the call. Today their phone system will not even connect you.

Now they have had several weeks to ramp up the staff and ramp up the technology, but it looks they have failed to do this. I understand IVR phone systems and any modern one would allow them to connect remote staff quite simply.
They appear to have been unable to anticipate\react and we are 3 -4 weeks into this now.

Very disappointed.

#284 maxx on 04.06.20 at 11:50 am

Aviators would suit Bandit much better.

#285 cropgrower on 04.06.20 at 12:09 pm

No barbers till fall could mean comb overs accepted back into society as cool, and I get a full head of hair again.

#286 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 12:09 pm

I’ve rediscovered a love of ramen noodles. Such a great lunch when cooked with some veggies and a couple of eggs.

Reminds me of my 1994 tour in South Korea. When on patrol, every unit had an unofficial support kitchen trundling along behind- they’d be set up cooking food in minutes. A bowl of plain noodles was $1, deluxe with hot dog and cheese cost $2. Dried squid for a buck. A bottle of soju cost $2. Companionship for $20. Entrepreneurism at its finest.

Then at night, the ‘slicky boys’ would steal everything that wasn’t nailed down. Never caught them, but they stole lots. Even our lieutenant’s 9mm, haha. Don’t think that helped his career advancement.

#287 Faron on 04.06.20 at 12:24 pm

#282 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 11:24 am
Yes! Also tie EI eligibility benefits to a certain measure of picked fruit. Head to the orchards for exercise, sun and fun.

If the work is there and needs to be done, why would able-bodied people be paid to sit on their tushes…

———————————————-

I’m guessing, as an engineer, that you work at a computer and are, thus, being paid to sit on your tush. Or at least stand around at your desk all day. Funny how people always wish the hard labour on others.

#288 NoName on 04.06.20 at 12:31 pm

Black Swan

https://mobile.twitter.com/INVESTMENTSHULK/status/1247170692694540289

#289 Barb on 04.06.20 at 12:32 pm

“…be given the Order of Canada for being the calming, sagacious guide for millions of Canadians lost in the financial wilderness. Blog dogs, are you on board with my proposal?”

——————————
Yes, of course!
Hope Morneau doesn’t have a say in the matter.

#290 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 12:34 pm

#207 MF on 04.05.20 at 10:23 pm
#166 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 7:25 pm

My parents did extremely well in life.

You’re right. It is genetics.

MF

————–

And now you’re almost ready to stand on your own two feet, little fella!

#291 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 12:40 pm

#289 Faron on 04.06.20 at 12:24 pm
#282 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 11:24 am
Yes! Also tie EI eligibility benefits to a certain measure of picked fruit. Head to the orchards for exercise, sun and fun.
If the work is there and needs to be done, why would able-bodied people be paid to sit on their tushes…

——————

I’m guessing, as an engineer, that you work at a computer and are, thus, being paid to sit on your tush. Or at least stand around at your desk all day. Funny how people always wish the hard labour on others.

——————

Actually, I don’t really ‘work’, per se. Mostly gain my filthy lucre through the labour of others.

Also would never be eligible for EI, regardless of my love of free money.

#292 Don Guillermo on 04.06.20 at 12:49 pm

#289 Faron on 04.06.20 at 12:24 pm
#282 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 11:24 am
Yes! Also tie EI eligibility benefits to a certain measure of picked fruit. Head to the orchards for exercise, sun and fun.
If the work is there and needs to be done, why would able-bodied people be paid to sit on their tushes…
———————————————-
I’m guessing, as an engineer, that you work at a computer and are, thus, being paid to sit on your tush. Or at least stand around at your desk all day. Funny how people always wish the hard labour on others

*****************************************

– Picked Okanagan fruit in the late 60’s.
– Worked as a labourer in a lead/zinc smelter.
– Worked as a tradesman in maintenance and later construction.
– Spent the last half of my career in Engineering, mostly EPCM

The latter is by far the most difficult. I witnessed more people hurt from stress and heart failure in Engineering offices than onsite injuries.

I guess it depends on what you consider hard labour is.

#293 Lambchop on 04.06.20 at 12:55 pm

#289 Faron on 04.06.20 at 12:24 pm

I’m guessing, as an engineer, that you work at a computer and are, thus, being paid to sit on your tush. Or at least stand around at your desk all day. Funny how people always wish the hard labour on others.

____________________

Sitting on one’s rear end whilst actually working is still considered work.
Sitting on one’s rear end whilst at home and collecting a paycheque while not working is most certainly not considered work.

#294 Deplorable Dude on 04.06.20 at 12:59 pm

It’s over folks….at least in the US.

The official gov model got ‘revised’ overnight. Nearly a 50% drop in beds needed nationwide. No state will see bed shortages.

Revised model is still wrong for worst case NY.

Error margins so wide as to be useless, e.g. beds needed 13-1500….

Bizarre predictions of CA having only 1/5 deaths of MA despite having 6x population?

NY reporting 75% drop in new hospitalisations today. They’ve peaked.

Final death figures likely to be in the range of a bad flu season.

So expect a media onslaught telling us shutting down the economy worked…ignoring the fact the models were useless, and completely over estimated the impact.

Meanwhile in BC 3 weeks into semi lockdown we have 142 beds being used, out of 4200 available.

When can I go back to work?

When can I go back to work!

#295 TurnerNation on 04.06.20 at 1:11 pm

The source on Toronto, Military is below.
The stories we are told about animals + virus fit neatly into the forced Vegan movement. So many boxes being ticked off with this.
My agenda is to notice what’s going on. When people tell me their elderly parents are breaking down already, and it’s been a few weeks, and in their next sentence mention the S-word I pay attention.

Maybe these guys are just passing through town…what timing . Let’s hope so. Bylaw officers, Police, and Police Special Constables are extensively deployed around the city. Will they need re-enforcements

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/04/05/expect-to-see-more-military-vehicles-personnel-on-gta-roads/amp/

National Defence said the public can expect to see a larger number of military vehicles and staff on GTA roadways starting on Monday.

The military said Sunday they will be moving hundreds of Canadian Armed Forces members from across the province to Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Borden as part of a task force to help with the COVID-19 fight.

#296 Hookshott on 04.06.20 at 1:22 pm

#237 cto on 04.06.20 at 8:11 am
“The world will be a little changed, but the fundamentals will remain. Folks still want clothes, cars, new iPhones, houses, vacations… and haircuts.”

Unless China changes a lot of that when they become the new world power.

Masks are a good example, all these western countries fighting over masks. there was a time when Canada had the industrial capacity to mass manufacture such a thing. No more, we blame the United states for saying” our masks are ours”…(seemingly the only other country outside of China to actually make such an inane thing and obviously not fast enough.

China seems to be able to effortlessly make 1000000s of them with their eyes closed.
…….
Those are the “surgical masks”….easy to make. I picked up a couple of packages of 10 the last time I was in Shanghai. The ones we are more concerned with are the N95 masks not quite so simple.

#297 Sold Out on 04.06.20 at 1:51 pm

#296 Deplorable Dude on 04.06.20 at 12:59 pm
It’s over folks….at least in the US.

The official gov model got ‘revised’ overnight. Nearly a 50% drop in beds needed nationwide. No state will see bed shortages.

Revised model is still wrong for worst case NY.

Error margins so wide as to be useless, e.g. beds needed 13-1500….

Bizarre predictions of CA having only 1/5 deaths of MA despite having 6x population?

NY reporting 75% drop in new hospitalisations today. They’ve peaked.

Final death figures likely to be in the range of a bad flu season.

So expect a media onslaught telling us shutting down the economy worked…ignoring the fact the models were useless, and completely over estimated the impact.

Meanwhile in BC 3 weeks into semi lockdown we have 142 beds being used, out of 4200 available.

When can I go back to work?

When can I go back to work!

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Perhaps you should read the pertinent parts of the article…

“The IHME model is based on several key assumptions about social distancing in the U.S. It assumes all states will lock down — closing schools, telling residents to stay at home, closing nonessential businesses — and that “implementation and adherence to these measures is complete.” Crucially, it also assumes the continuation of social distancing until early August, well beyond the April 30 guidelines currently set forth by the White House.”

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/coronavirus-model-now-predicts-many-fewer-u-s-deaths.html

#298 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 2:08 pm

#261 MF on 04.06.20 at 10:18 am
#250 Penny Henny on 04.06.20 at 9:21 am

Agreed. Now if only they actually had nice cars to drive this would have worked out well.

My dad believes in buying cars outright and driving them until they die, so you can guess what kind of sleek hot rods they have in the garage.

MF
/////

Bitchin Camaro?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1v3CzvQ9e_w

#299 Piano_Man87 on 04.06.20 at 2:16 pm

#126 Piano_Man87 on 04.05.20 at 4:19 pm
Epidemiologists modelling in Ontario: “Yeah, our models go out as far as 24 months tracking this pandemic.”

Garth: “Yeah, I bet I can get a haircut in a month or two.”

Nobody has suggested a two-year lockdown and closure of businesses. Beyond ridiculous. – Garth

Nobody has suggested re-opening any non-essential businesses in a month or two. (Except for Trump)

My suggestion was that recovery would be robustly underway by the autumn. You have my permission to come back and apologize then. – Garth

#300 JonBoy on 04.06.20 at 2:30 pm

I heard on CBC this morning that Canada has tested 335,000 people for COVID-19. Approximately 15,000 tested positive (4.5%).

Of those 4.5%, approximately 1-3% may die, based on typical death rates for CONFIRMED cases. Let’s take 3%, just to make this as bad as possible.

So, 450 people will die OUT OF 335,000 PEOPLE. That’s 0.135% (ie, 1% of 1%).

Why is the economy shut down again? Seriously? Are people daft?

Yes, it’s contagious. Yes, it picks on old people. Yes, it can kill anyone (but it generally doesn’t). Like the flu, it can be nothing, it can be mild, it can be major or it can be life-threatening. This is nothing new to us!

Move on – it’s not the end of the world. Be careful around old people. People that have health issues definitely need to care for themselves. Susceptible people shouldn’t be out for a while and definitely shouldn’t be travelling by plane.

The rest of us? We’ll be fine. The WHO has missed the ball on this. The governments are focusing on the number of deaths and confirmed cases and ignoring the testing that has shown that the vast majority don’t have it or have already had it.

When we get tests that show who has antibodies, and it turns out a bunch of us already do, there are going to be a lot of people feeling silly.

#301 Ruane on 04.06.20 at 2:30 pm

Some of the stores I usually shop at have big sales online right now, so I’ve been starting my pent-up-demand shopping a bit early.

Garth, if your hair gets long enough, can you post a photo wearing a man bun? :) Garth + millennial hair = win

#302 Deplorable Dude on 04.06.20 at 2:40 pm

#299 Sold out.. “ Perhaps you should read the pertinent parts of the article…

“The IHME model is based on several key assumptions about social distancing in the U.S. It assumes all states will lock down — closing schools, telling residents to stay at home, closing nonessential businesses ”

——————

The original model was based on these assumptions as well. It’s useless.

They’re just gonna keep adjusting down till it matches reality.

#303 Faron on 04.06.20 at 3:06 pm

#302 JonBoy on 04.06.20 at 2:30 pm
So, 450 people will die OUT OF 335,000 PEOPLE. That’s 0.135% (ie, 1% of 1%).

Why is the economy shut down again?

————————————————————————–

Can you remind us again what an acceptable number of excess deaths is? And unacceptable? Thanks. That will be useful next time there’s a major tragedy so we can decide if we care or not. Should we have let this burn a little hotter and kill 10 x more people? 50 x? And you are certain that if everyone had sat on their hands starting with the Wuhanese and ending with Brasil we would all be better off?

BTW 0.135% is 13.5% of 1%

#304 Ustabe on 04.06.20 at 3:10 pm

#230 Steve French on 04.06.20 at 5:36 am

Pray for Smoking Man!

SteveO

The man who spent months (years?) posting on this blog dissing all things Canadian, from politicians to attacking folks on this blog most notably women posters?

The man who allegedly moved to California and showed his wife how to make millions in fourex?

The man with all this alleged wealth, living in the country with the best health care in the world who apparently has returned to his hated Canada to further his health care?

Why would anyone need to pray for him? He apparently has it all under control. Allegedly.

#305 Faron on 04.06.20 at 3:12 pm

#304 Deplorable Dude on 04.06.20 at 2:40 pm

The original model was based on these assumptions as well. It’s useless.

They’re just gonna keep adjusting down till it matches reality.

———————

Yeah, I hate it when those pesky scientists admit errors clearly and transparently and then fully explain the changes that they are making to improve their work. So corrupt. It would work so much better if they just blamed others for the shortcomings like our supremely effective politicians do.

#306 Pete Perspective on 04.06.20 at 3:25 pm

Folks I know there is a lot of hurt financially in society and a number of poor souls have left this earthly plane because of COVID19 but unless you are actually afflicted by the virus, put it all in perspective. I have known concentration camp survivors who were reduced to skin and bones and were on death’s doorstep. When they finally were liberated they have been grateful for every day of life since then. Put everything in perspective folks…

#307 G on 04.06.20 at 3:26 pm

#137 BLTandfries,
re: As for Bill Gates, he didn’t vaccinate his own children!
https://www.uspoliticsandnews.com/why-didnt-bill-gates-vaccinate-his-own-children/
I never pictured him as the Antichrist but anything looks possible nowadays.
(I noticed a comment below in your link say show me the proof he didn’t. So see link below.)

———

Of course he didn’t, he know what is in them.
If he really thought the population numbers were an issue (I acknowledge they might be.)
Bill should have not had any kids to start with. You know, lead by example, instead of do as I say, not as I do. But you must take the vaccines that I won’t give my own kids.(Because he love you so much, not)

Here is a link were Bill Gates says vaccines can keep down population numbers, close to zero. (Seem a number of videos with this have become unavailable for some reason. lots of Bill warning about a pandemic coming. To make him look good I guess.)

Bill Gates – Population Reduction @ TED 2010 3min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmzeYYWntxw

He come right out and says if we do a good job with vaccines we can keep the population down 15-20% aiming for near zero. (listen for an evil sounding laugh from the audience when he says it.)
So it is no wonder he won’t vaccinate his own kids!

#308 IHCTD9 on 04.06.20 at 3:36 pm

Applied online for the CERB today. Surprisingly it only took a few tries to get on the site, and the whole process was headache and glitch free. I’m pretty impressed since probably half the country is on there doing the same thing right now…

#309 Attrition on 04.06.20 at 3:38 pm

What surprises me is how many men commenting here don’t cut their own hair.

Newsflash: you’re unattractive even with long hair, and if the lady in your life says you are and that she ‘loves your hair when it’s long’ she’s lying.

You look foolish with a coif’d doo.

Save $25-$40 and cut your own hair to a man’s length.

#310 Handsome Ned on 04.06.20 at 3:39 pm

Costello: WHO caused this mess?
Abbot: Absolutely.
Costello: No, WHO caused this?
Abbot: Yes they did.

#311 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.06.20 at 3:41 pm

@#306 Ustabe human

Classy.
Do you pull the wings off flies too?

#312 Toronto_CA on 04.06.20 at 3:50 pm

#305 Faron on 04.06.20 at 3:06 pm

Hey Faron, google Deaths of Despair for me and note how much deaths go up with every 1% increase in unemployment. It’s not as black and white a call as you make it out to be.

God holier than thou types like you make me sick. Realise there are other view points. Destroying the economy costs lives and puts many people at risk of things just as deadly and awful as the virus.

#313 Deplorable Dude on 04.06.20 at 3:55 pm

#307 Farron….“ Yeah, I hate it when those pesky scientists admit errors”

————

They were off by over a 100%. And it STILL doesn’t match the reality on the ground.

How many millions of people have lost their jobs due to this ‘modelling error’?

Garbage.

#314 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 4:08 pm

#305 Faron on 04.06.20 at 3:06 pm
#302 JonBoy on 04.06.20 at 2:30 pm

So, 450 people will die OUT OF 335,000 PEOPLE. That’s 0.135% (ie, 1% of 1%).

Why is the economy shut down again?

—————–

Can you remind us again what an acceptable number of excess deaths is? And unacceptable? Thanks. That will be useful next time there’s a major tragedy so we can decide if we care or not.

—————–

Let’s go with 1% of the population as an acceptable number. For Canada, that would be around 370,000.

There are too many people in this world anyway. And climate change doesn’t happen by itself, or by raising taxes.

10-20% population reduction would actually be better for the climate, don’t you think?

What’s your number? Understanding, of course, that people do die. Yes, it’s true.

#315 JB on 04.06.20 at 4:09 pm

#306 Ustabe on 04.06.20 at 3:10 pm

#230 Steve French on 04.06.20 at 5:36 am

Pray for Smoking Man!

SteveO

The man who spent months (years?) posting on this blog dissing all things Canadian, from politicians to attacking folks on this blog most notably women posters?

The man who allegedly moved to California and showed his wife how to make millions in fourex?

The man with all this alleged wealth, living in the country with the best health care in the world who apparently has returned to his hated Canada to further his health care?

Why would anyone need to pray for him? He apparently has it all under control. Allegedly.
……………………………………………………………………
You do have a point and Smoking Man doesn’t necessarily believe in a higher power. My motto is to give any afflicted soul an opportunity to make peace with his, her or gender neutral own personal higher being. Or not! I know he has cried wolf and pulled some pretty outrageous insulting statements here but don’t kick a dog ever. You never know how that dog was treated in life. Hopefully he is at peace.

Job 19:21
Have pity upon me, have pity upon me, O ye my friends; for the hand of God hath touched me.

#316 JonBoy on 04.06.20 at 4:10 pm

#305 Faron on 04.06.20 at 3:06 pm

Can you remind us again what an acceptable number of excess deaths is? And unacceptable? Thanks. That will be useful next time there’s a major tragedy so we can decide if we care or not. Should we have let this burn a little hotter and kill 10 x more people? 50 x? And you are certain that if everyone had sat on their hands starting with the Wuhanese and ending with Brasil we would all be better off?

BTW 0.135% is 13.5% of 1%

—–

When the deaths are practically no worse than the “regular flu”, I’m perfectly fine with letting it run. As I stated, it appears to be more and more probable that many of us already had it (or will get it and recover without issue).

Shutting down AN ENTIRE COUNTRY (planet?) to save people that are mostly older than the average person lives in North America seems an overreach / overreaction to me.

Look at those that took a reasonable approach (and did just fine – South Korea and Thailand spring to mind), kept things rolling, used masks and cleaning and social distancing properly, and even though they “got the virus” way before us, they have less health problems (ie, deaths) and they didn’t kill their economy in doing so.

0.135% death rate is barely higher than that of the traditional flu (0.1%). If you think we should do this now, logically, you would also be okay with us shutting down the economy every spring to “save the world from the flu”. I’m betting you’re not okay with that….right?

#317 Sail away on 04.06.20 at 4:14 pm

#307 Faron on 04.06.20 at 3:12 pm
#304 Deplorable Dude on 04.06.20 at 2:40 pm

The original model was based on these assumptions as well. It’s useless.

They’re just gonna keep adjusting down till it matches reality.

—————-

Yeah, I hate it when those pesky scientists admit errors clearly and transparently and then fully explain the changes that they are making to improve their work. So corrupt.

—————-

No, he said useless, not corrupt.

In engineering, we have a technical term for models that predict incorrectly. We call them ‘not useful’, or sometimes ‘useless’.

#318 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 4:19 pm

#307 Faron on 04.06.20 at 3:12 pm
—-

Those scientists produced a model that caused the biggest and most costly policy decision in our history even larger than WW2. It has cost us trillions and will cost us trillions more. And the human impacts haven’t even begun to be calculated yet.

They owe us more than a fact of error 4 times the real data.

Trump gets skewered everyday for even little minute errors he might make and these eggheads messed up by literally millions of deaths. The estimated death toll for Saskatchewan was 15-30,000 people. We have exactly 3 in hospital ICU and a couple deaths so far.

These guys messed up big time and they deserve to be called out.

#319 Sold Out on 04.06.20 at 4:20 pm

#309 G on 04.06.20 at 3:26 pm
#137 BLTandfries,
re: As for Bill Gates, he didn’t vaccinate his own children!
https://www.uspoliticsandnews.com/why-didnt-bill-gates-vaccinate-his-own-children/
I never pictured him as the Antichrist but anything looks possible nowadays.
(I noticed a comment below in your link say show me the proof he didn’t. So see link below.)

———

Of course he didn’t, he know what is in them.
If he really thought the population numbers were an issue (I acknowledge they might be.)
Bill should have not had any kids to start with. You know, lead by example, instead of do as I say, not as I do. But you must take the vaccines that I won’t give my own kids.(Because he love you so much, not)

Here is a link were Bill Gates says vaccines can keep down population numbers, close to zero. (Seem a number of videos with this have become unavailable for some reason. lots of Bill warning about a pandemic coming. To make him look good I guess.)

Bill Gates – Population Reduction @ TED 2010 3min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmzeYYWntxw

He come right out and says if we do a good job with vaccines we can keep the population down 15-20% aiming for near zero. (listen for an evil sounding laugh from the audience when he says it.)
So it is no wonder he won’t vaccinate his own kids!
https://m.facebook.com/melindagates/posts/all-three-of-my-children-are-fully-vaccinated-vaccines-work-and-when-fewer-peopl/2585399605016954/

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Can we put the Bill Gates conspiracy nonsense to bed? His children are fully vaccinated, as are the children of tens of millions of sensible people.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2018/may/02/yournewswirecom/Website-falsely-claims-Bill-Gates-refused-to-vacci/

https://africacheck.org/fbcheck/hoax-claim-that-bill-gates-refused-to-vaccinate-his-own-children/

Nor is trying to “depopulate” the world. Reducing infant mortality is not genocide.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bill-gates-vaccinations-depopulation/

Do you idiots manage your own money? You couldn’t find yer arsehole with a map and a flashlight.

#320 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 4:23 pm

#305 Faron on 04.06.20 at 3:06 pm

Can you remind us again what an acceptable number of excess deaths is? And unacceptable? Thanks.
—-

Right back at you. What is the acceptable rate of death from suicide, from domestic abuse, from drug and alcohol overdose, from car accidents, from snake bites, from slips and falls, from the regular flu?

Logic, its such a brutal teacher.

#321 Don Guillermo on 04.06.20 at 5:52 pm

#322 not 1st on 04.06.20 at 4:23 pm
#305 Faron on 04.06.20 at 3:06 pm
Can you remind us again what an acceptable number of excess deaths is? And unacceptable? Thanks.
—-
Right back at you. What is the acceptable rate of death from suicide, from domestic abuse, from drug and alcohol overdose, from car accidents, from snake bites, from slips and falls, from the regular flu?
Logic, its such a brutal teacher
**************************************

Correct, It’s called risk/reward or risk management. We use it on everything we do. Flying, driving, building industrial plants, pipelines (oops forget that – the SJW’s have decided that one doesn’t apply)

#322 BillyBob on 04.06.20 at 6:27 pm

#255 JB on 04.06.20 at 9:54 am
#190 Smoking Man on 04.05.20 at 8:33 pm

Recovery sooner than most think.

Hospitals are empty. Anyone that dies now it’s coronsvirus.

Few months ago no one trusted MSM, now they own the store…

Sad….
………………………………………………………………
Actually Smoking Man it is sad my wife has seen three people die at her hospital. She is nurse here in Toronto and there is an ethical reason the hospitals are pretty damn empty.

==================================================

Umm, a nurse seeing three people die…in a hospital…may be sad, but it’s hardly unusual. Nor exactly a statistical spike.