It’s over

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

.

It’s hard to write a financial blog and not occasionally quote Warren Buffett. I often resist because his quotes are used so frequently that they’ve become cliché. I’m sure baseball announcers struggle the same way trying to avoid quoting Yogi Berra.

But damn. Buffett’s quotes are sometimes just plain perfect. So, as the coronavirus wreaks havoc on financial markets and as I survey the pummeled ETF landscape, I’m reminded of Buffett’s old line, “only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

And the coronavirus has revealed a lot of naked ETF swimmers. Mainly of the leveraged variety.

I’ve warned investors before that 1) ETFs frequently, and often unexpectedly, close up shop  and 2) leveraged ETFs, while performing as designed, can still overwhelm investors with their incredibly poor performances.

The events of 2020 have shown that these warnings were prescient. The Wall Street Journal recently cautioned that 2020 will likely see a record number of ETF closures (and its data doesn’t even include all of March) and, not surprisingly, ETF.com reports that a disproportionate number of these closings have come from the leveraged and inverse ETF space. In fact, ETF.com called what we’ve seen in this category over just the past few weeks a “bloodbath” as almost 30 leveraged products have been shut down, eight of them from Direxion alone. Rival ProShares has shuttered six.

An ETF closure is, of course, undesirable—funds must be redeployed elsewhere creating reinvestment risk and there may also be unexpected tax consequences—but this only amounts to a salting of the wound if the closure itself follows a stunningly rapid drop in value, which is what often occurs with leveraged ETFs.

It’s not that leveraged ETFs are performing in ways that are different from what’s fully disclosed in their prospectuses and, in fact, leveraged ETFs have been doing a much better job of stating their risks more transparently. Direxion, for example, highlights upfront in its fund descriptions that its products are “different and much riskier than most ETFs”.

However, the real problem with leveraged ETFs occurs when investors using them only see downside risk as an abstraction and become overconfident in their outlook. It takes a real market crisis, such as the one we’re currently experiencing, for the dangers of leveraged ETFs to really sink in.

First, let’s review leveraged ETFs and outline why they can be so problematic. I provided a few of the key risks in my previous blog post cited above:

So how do leveraged ETFs work? Essentially, they use mechanisms such as swaps, futures contracts and derivatives to provide investors with 200% [or] 300%…of the daily performance (either up or down) of an underlying index. The key term, however, is DAILY returns. These are products that don’t necessarily amplify returns over the long haul, rather just the returns over one trading day. Suddenly, the concept of ‘volatility drag’ enters the picture. …If [a] see-saw pattern [of market returns] continues, your [ETF value] will continue to diminish at a dramatically accelerated rate. The results can be devastating in a very short period…

Then, of course, there’s also the possibility that your market-direction forecast itself is entirely incorrect. If you’ve picked a leveraged ETF geared to favour an uptrending market and the market goes straight down, you can rack up even more significant losses also incredibly rapidly. In the past 10 years, the S&P 500, for example, has actually recorded a weekly decline of 3% or more 47 times, so it’s not as if meaningful short-term downturns are black swans—they occur constantly. And during the credit crisis there was even a week where the US market dropped more than 18%. Imagine how you’d fare with a…leveraged ETF during any of these stretches…

Well, proof that I was right about bad weeks occurring constantly for the S&P 500 has been provided by the coronavirus crisis. But let’s focus on my second point: getting your market-direction forecast wrong. If you’d felt a year ago, for instance, that things were as bad as they could get for the oil & gas sector and were certain that it was poised for an upswing, you may have made an investment in the Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Explorers & Producers 3x Bull ETF (GUSH). Well, thanks to volatility drag and your incorrect forecast, you would have, quite literally, lost ALL of your money after only 12 months:

Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Explorers & Producers 3x Bull ETF (GUSH) – one year

Source: Bloomberg

And, along the way, you would have been forced to become very comfortable with gut-wrenching 20% down-days. They occurred constantly. There was even one day recently where GUSH dropped by more than 80%. Again, that’s 80% in a SINGLE day.

Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Explorers & Producers 3x Bull ETF (GUSH) – sample daily returns

Source: Bloomberg

In addition to closing eight of its ETFs, Direxion also announced that it was reducing the leverage on another 10 ETFs from 3x to 2x, including GUSH. So, your investment that gave you 3x leverage on the way down is now only going to give you 2x leverage on the way up. Further, though GUSH hasn’t officially closed yet, with a 75% decline in its market cap since the highs of last year, this remains a distinct possibility. Then your losses will become permanent.

Many overconfident investors think that they’re prepared for the risk and volatility that comes with using leveraged ETFs, but in reality they’re not. And many don’t fully understand the shockingly sudden consequences of an incorrect market forecast.

Or as Yogi might put it, leveraged ETFs teach you very quickly that if you don’t know where you’re going, you’ll end up someplace else.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

176 comments ↓

#1 YouKnowWho on 04.04.20 at 11:04 am

Latest summary of what is known…

Less than 300 yards from the seafood market is the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Researchers from that facility and the nearby Wuhan Institute of Virology have posted articles about collecting bat coronaviruses from around China, for study to prevent future illness.

Richard Ebright, a Rutgers microbiologist and biosafety expert, told me in an email that “the first human infection could have occurred as a natural accident,” with the virus passing from bat to human, possibly through another animal. But Ebright cautioned that it “also could have occurred as a laboratory accident, with, for example, an accidental infection of a laboratory worker.” He noted that bat coronaviruses were studied in Wuhan at Biosafety Level 2, “which provides only minimal protection,” compared with the top BSL-4.

Ebright described a December video from the Wuhan CDC that shows staffers “collecting bat coronaviruses with inadequate [personal protective equipment] and unsafe operational practices.”

Separately, I reviewed two Chinese articles, from 2017 and 2019, describing the heroics of Wuhan CDC researcher Tian Junhua, who while capturing bats in a cave “forgot to take protective measures” so that “bat urine dripped from the top of his head like raindrops.”

And then there’s the Chinese study that was curiously withdrawn. In February, a site called ResearchGate published a brief article by Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao from Guangzhou’s South China University of Technology. “In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high risk biohazardous laboratories,” the article concluded. Botao Xiao told the Wall Street Journal in February that he had withdrawn the paper because it “was not supported by direct proofs.”

#2 Flop... on 04.04.20 at 11:17 am

Robax, I once quipped on here.

For hack investors like myself, ETF stands for…

Easy To F&@$-up…

M45BC

#3 Context on 04.04.20 at 11:18 am

Bought 1000 shares of JDST at 1.68 the other day

If I lose 1600 bux, so be it.

But at that price… I’ll hold it for a year or two unless it closes. Plenty of downside left for miners. They are laying people off just like the rest of the “non essentials”.

True story.

#4 not 1st on 04.04.20 at 11:21 am

I don’t know anybody personally playing with these leveraged etfs but if there is a Inverse China 3X I would take a chance there because globalization had just died an ugly death like we all knew it would and 25% if our oil demand was reliant on it.

China is not a growing economy, its a siphoning economy. It siphoned off a little bit of GDP and productive capacity from every country in the world who used to make what they do and then shipped it around the world. That model is done only China doesn’t know about it yet.

Buffets quotes might get a littler harder to rely on. He firesaled a bunch of Delta Airlines last night. Guess even he isn’t as steely eyed as we all thought.

#5 Lahdeedah on 04.04.20 at 11:25 am

Why would anyone ever buy mining or energy stocks or ETFs? They are volatile and cyclical and fickle.

#6 not 1st on 04.04.20 at 11:26 am

#1 YouKnowWho on 04.04.20 at 11:04 am
—–

You can go online and see people keeping bats and pangolins as pets in tiny apartments often with a couple other animals in there usually ducks or birds. What a petri dish experiment.

Humans are not supposed to live in close quarters with exotic animals like that. Even dog saliva can be deadly.

#7 Dogman01 on 04.04.20 at 11:26 am

I have noticed several “articles” from our state sponsored media, that start initially oblique, that all end up advocating for monitoring via cell phones.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-pandemic-end-1.5521710?cmp=rss

“Never let a good crisis go to waste”

Incrementalism is pretty powerful, metes it out in measurements too small to warrant a reaction, but overtime archives substantial chance.
“It is the humble petition of the camel, who only asks that he may put his nose into the traveler’s tent. It is so pitiful, so modest, that we must needs relent and grant it.”
“Once a camel has managed to place its nose within a tent, the rest of the camel will inevitably follow.”

#8 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 11:31 am

Thanks Doug, good post. I love cautionary tales.

I often speak to engineering classes as a guest lecturer and my go-to is discussing case studies. Disastrous ones are the best!

Speaking of that, maybe I know yvr_lurker… if you’re involved with UBC Engineering?

#9 Trump and Masks on 04.04.20 at 11:34 am

I apologize if this was posted twice
As we know Trump is planning to stop shipments to Masks to Canada
I would like everyone to tell their friends, Canada is the sole supplier not only to,3m but to the world on a specialized pulp that makes the masks! No wonder 3M was worried.
While my personal view is screw Trump and stop supplying pulp, diplomatic heads will prevail

Here’s the article google it if you want
Harmac mill pulp

https://www.vancouverislandfreedaily.com/business/nanaimos-harmac-mill-works-to-fill-doubled-pulp-order-for-medical-masks-and-gowns/

#10 Andrewski on 04.04.20 at 11:35 am

Doug, your post today only highlights the reality of self directed investors lack of financial literacy.

Just because an investor reads that ETF’s are superior to mutual or segregated funds, doesn’t mean it’s true.

Segregated fund guarantees are worth a look, regardless of the higher fees than ETF’s:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/segregated-funds-offer-guarantees-for-investors-but-they-come-at-a-cost-1.1308722

#11 Charlie Munger on 04.04.20 at 11:48 am

It’s times like this that the great Warren Buffet quote kicks in…

“you don’t know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out…”

#12 Yukon Elvis on 04.04.20 at 11:50 am

#1 YouKnowWho on 04.04.20 at 11:04 am
Latest summary of what is known…

Less than 300 yards from the seafood market is the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Researchers from that facility and the nearby Wuhan Institute of Virology have posted articles about collecting bat coronaviruses from around China, for study to prevent future illness.

Richard Ebright, a Rutgers microbiologist and biosafety expert, told me in an email that “the first human infection could have occurred as a natural accident,” with the virus passing from bat to human, possibly through another animal. But Ebright cautioned that it “also could have occurred as a laboratory accident, with, for example, an accidental infection of a laboratory worker.” He noted that bat coronaviruses were studied in Wuhan at Biosafety Level 2, “which provides only minimal protection,” compared with the top BSL-4.

Ebright described a December video from the Wuhan CDC that shows staffers “collecting bat coronaviruses with inadequate [personal protective equipment] and unsafe operational practices.”

Separately, I reviewed two Chinese articles, from 2017 and 2019, describing the heroics of Wuhan CDC researcher Tian Junhua, who while capturing bats in a cave “forgot to take protective measures” so that “bat urine dripped from the top of his head like raindrops.”

And then there’s the Chinese study that was curiously withdrawn. In February, a site called ResearchGate published a brief article by Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao from Guangzhou’s South China University of Technology. “In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan. Safety level may need to be reinforced in high risk biohazardous laboratories,” the article concluded. Botao Xiao told the Wall Street Journal in February that he had withdrawn the paper because it “was not supported by direct proofs.”
……………………………………

Very good observation / summary. Well done. I am still scratching my head over the trail of bread crumbs from the virology lab in Winnipeg and the Chinese “scientists” who were expelled to the lab in Wuhan. Thoughts ?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/chinese-researcher-escorted-from-infectious-disease-lab-amid-rcmp-investigation-1.5211567

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/national-microbiology-lab-scientist-investigation-china-1.5307424

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/questions-surround-canadian-shipment-of-deadly-viruses-to-china-66254

#13 Debtslavecreator on 04.04.20 at 12:03 pm

Barring a miracle, risk grows daily that large numbers of high yield and lower quality Corp bonds will default causing many of the funds / ETFs holding this paper to restrict or freeze redemptions

Sweden is the latest investment market to experience this.

Let’s hope for the best

Otherwise your money will be fixed with no income

Be very careful with the bonds.

Now why would you buy a junk bond ETF in the first place? High-yield is high-risk. – Garth

#14 Throwing in the towel on 04.04.20 at 12:04 pm

I want to thank everyone at Garth Turner investments for advice during these extraordinary times.
Yes I am stressed, to be honest the Convid19 virus does not worry me. It’s all the misinformation, conspiracy theories and advice, and don’t even get me going on governments saying saying July to September. Really? do you really know? Honestly the death rate is nothing.
But you make charts and say this would have happened?
I don’t think so. Again make up stats based on what?

To me the most Important thing is the economy!

And right now even advice about the economy range from a great reset to Depression to V recovery to long and painful recovery that may take years. All over the map
Many say move into cash, many say it’s too late, many say hang on to your hat.

So yes I am fed up
Even if I don’t understand all these financial newsletters even this one is confusing one day housing will bust the next day hang on sunny skies are ahead to this one today about ETFs and leverage, is this important?

So what do we know as facts
Millions unemployed originalLy 4 months now longer?this cannot be good no matter how you spin it.
So same goes for all the spending poof!
I think you said a million missed rents and mortgage payments. Surly this is not a one off, more likely 6 months
Same for commercial real-estate
Thousand of small business bankrupt they are not coming back, maybe someone will rise from the ashes but who has money?

You compare this to the Great War and the Spanish flu that’s killed 50 million and yes they survived and moved forward. Yes we are a bunch of softies
Different generation different times.

Anyway I am hitting the sell button Monday. I might loose, but if you are wrong then this is going to end with millions loosing everything. No v curve recovery because you don’t have any analysis all you have that’s the way it was in the past. There will be no one to buy because all the stock market rise was corporations buy backs.
I think recovery in 5 years not 5 months.

Good luck and thanks again I want to believe you are right but I am exhausted and it’s not even close to being over.

There will be many buyers happy you are giving up. – Garth

#15 Xpat on 04.04.20 at 12:11 pm

Treasuries look like a blow off top to me. Maybe ending this 40 year bull market.

The question is – is it bullish for equities?

#16 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 12:18 pm

#13 Throwing in the towel on 04.04.20 at 12:04 pm

Anyway I am hitting the sell button Monday. I might loose, but if you are wrong then this is going to end with millions loosing everything.

—————–

Why? All industry is based on people and there will be just as many people after this is over. There has been no material change.

#17 Dogman01 on 04.04.20 at 12:19 pm

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html

I don’t think the above is surprising, and I understand science needs hypothesis then evidence, before they take action, which takes time.

I suspect with this thing we may have been better off with the approach “prove it does not” vs “prove it does”.

#18 Linda on 04.04.20 at 12:20 pm

Thanks for the lesson of the day, Doug. I could wish our various provincial & federal governments took heed of financial advice such as is promoted on this blog. For instance, Canadian produced oil recently lost value to the point that shipping it cost more than the market value of the oil itself. Yet the Alberta provincial government decided to allocate/invest 7 billion dollars in pipeline construction just last week. This when the Alberta government was also cutting off funds to beleaguered school boards, tasked with providing online learning to thousands of students as it is anticipated that schools will not reopen until September. Which has led to the issuance of thousands of pink slips to school board staff. And in a move that will reflect unfavorably on their policy skills, unilaterally cancelling existing contracts with doctors & reducing fees to physicians for various procedures. To be fair, the revised fee schedule was supposed to align costs to match those those paid in other provinces, as a recent study apparently showed Alberta was paying more than any other province for the same services. Though it is noteworthy that the current Minister of Health for the province of Alberta’s spouse just happens to own a business that would provide for profit care that – surprise – coincidentally happens to encompass services that have just been ‘fee adjusted’ by the province. Call me cynical, but I do wonder just how accurate the study that led to the changes was & whether it was ‘adjusted’ to ensure a foregone conclusion.

#19 Johnny Peede on 04.04.20 at 12:24 pm

“Overconfident Investors “? Boy, it’s hard to say that without laughing your butt off. 12 years of government manipulated ZIRP that fooled “investors” into thinking money for nothing was the new normal. Was it Jesse Livermore who said ” Money always finds its way back to it’s true owner”? Maybe not, but a truer phrase was never coined.

The retail punters who leveraged their future to buy condos and ETFs are getting crushed. The investment industry as we know it is going to come back, but it won’t look anything like today. 60/40 portfolios were for the fat and lazy. The future is going back to basics, a stock pickers game, retail punters not welcome. The floor will be cleared of weak hands.

When Greenspan created the ZIRP in 2000 he threw a blanket over the heads of an entire population of schmucks and it made stupid the new normal. Finally, the reversion to the mean is upon us. Investing in the stock market was never meant to resemble a government program for seniors savings. Those days are over. The last 20 years of “investing” were an illusion, created to confuse.

#20 DON on 04.04.20 at 12:28 pm

@Smoking Man

I am sorry to hear SM.

I hope for the best road ahead for you and your family.

My thoughts are with you.

Until then rage against the machine, my friend.

#21 akashic record on 04.04.20 at 12:39 pm

The Oracle dumped airlines shares, as airplanes dump fuel before crash landing.

#22 MPAC on 04.04.20 at 12:41 pm

@#13 based on the dozens of RE investors I’ve spoken with, and I attended a webinar where listeners were polled to determine how many of their tenants didn’t pay rent for April, the numbers seem to be around 8% of tenants haven’t paid rent ( around 200 hundred people in the Greater Toronto Area were polled).

Everyone of my tenants paid, but I expect May – August to be much much worse.

#23 Don Guillermo on 04.04.20 at 12:47 pm

Global CV-19 update (numbers rounded) April 04th
Cases: 1,150,000
Deaths: 66,000

Typical Global annual flu (numbers rounded)
Cases: 5,000,000
Deaths: 650,000

#24 Doug Rowat on 04.04.20 at 12:49 pm

#4 not 1st on 04.04.20 at 11:21 am

I don’t know anybody personally playing with these leveraged etfs but if there is a Inverse China 3X I would take a chance…

There’s an ETF for every insane market wager. Even Nashville. Yee-haw! No, wait, that one closed too:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/finance/investment-management/article/20989689/nashville-area-etf-to-liquidate

–Doug

#25 espressobob on 04.04.20 at 12:49 pm

Those old Horizon beta pro ETFs I believe where designed for day traders and a few BNN characters that believe they can outsmart Mr.market until reality sets in and leaves these poor souls with a loss and wondering what they were thinking?

I’ll stick with a quality portfolio tracking the major indices.

#26 Flop... on 04.04.20 at 1:08 pm

Flop’s Corona Virus Song Of The Day.

Bee Gees.

Stayin’ Alive…

M45BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=I_izvAbhExY

A snippet.

Well now, I get low and I get high
And if I can’t get either, I really try
Got the wings of heaven on my shoes
I’m a dancin’ man and I just can’t lose
You know it’s alright, it’s okay
I’ll live to see another day
We can try to understand
The New York Times’ effect on man

#27 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.04.20 at 1:11 pm

Hmmmm,
Some ETF’s are sinking faster than a Venezuelan Navy Patrol boat

https://globalnews.ca/news/6774974/cruise-ship-venezuela-ramming/

Another excellent topic Doug, explained in laymans terms. Thanks again.

#28 DON on 04.04.20 at 1:11 pm

#9 Trump and Masks on 04.04.20 at 11:34 am

I apologize if this was posted twice
As we know Trump is planning to stop shipments to Masks to Canada
I would like everyone to tell their friends, Canada is the sole supplier not only to,3m but to the world on a specialized pulp that makes the masks! No wonder 3M was worried.
While my personal view is screw Trump and stop supplying pulp, diplomatic heads will prevail

Here’s the article google it if you want
Harmac mill pulp

https://www.vancouverislandfreedaily.com/business/nanaimos-harmac-mill-works-to-fill-doubled-pulp-order-for-medical-masks-and-gowns/
***************

To add to this:

Harmac Mill was taken over by the employees about 16 years ago when they faced a shut down. Been up an running ever since. I met some of the engineers in the companies first year – hard working dedicated and you could see they had ideas and drive.

Good for them! A good local company.

@Sail Away
Dick Proenneke ‘Alone in the Wilderness’ is a great example of human ingenuity. Love watching his documentaries.

#29 Parksville Prankster on 04.04.20 at 1:12 pm

When it comes to designing and selling a leveraged ETF product, the old adage rings true:

Lie to people who want to be lied to, and you’ll be rich.

Tell the truth to people who want the truth, and you’ll make a living.

Tell the truth to people who want to be lied to, and you’ll go broke.

#30 Throwing in the towel on 04.04.20 at 1:13 pm

Thanks for commenting Mr.Turner
You are right of course
But that’s because the smarts ones had cash and sold before the crash.
I will have cash when we hit bottom so I will be a buyer as well when the real panic sets in.
Cheers have a wonderful day!

Crystallizing losses to buy assets later when prices rise is an amateur mistake. If your portfolio is balanced and diversified and you don’t need the money immediately, just ignore the damned thing. – Garth

#31 BS on 04.04.20 at 1:15 pm

#9 Trump and Masks on 04.04.20 at 11:34 am

I apologize if this was posted twice
As we know Trump is planning to stop shipments to Masks to Canada

Trump signed an executive order yesterday that 3M must supply masks in the US exclusively to the US, Canada and Mexico. Quit reading fake news.

#32 Deplorable Dude on 04.04.20 at 1:17 pm

#9 Trump and Masks.

I live about 10 minutes from Harmac in Nanaimo. Funny how we’ve ended up in the middle of this.

Globalisation has shown that when the sh1t hits the fan, it’s every man for himself.

Maybe we ought to make these critical medical supplies in Canada instead of just selling the raw materials, and also relying on China for so many medical materials, e.g. pills.

Trump took a lot of heat for slapping tariffs on Canadian Steel as he considered it a national security asset, and wanted the US to be self sufficient. Same applies to medical supplies in a national emergency.

#33 Richmond will be under water by 2014 on 04.04.20 at 1:18 pm

Lulz at all the triggered Canadians over Trump doing exactly the type of thing he ran his entire campaign and based his entire political Avatar on. Obviously domestic made vital emergency equipment that is in extreme shortage needs to remain domestic in an emergency!
Trump loses nothing and his base absolutely loves it.
The triggered Canadian snowflakes are insufferable. Every
Single
Channel
The mashing and gnashing of teeth is deafening.
What does our leader do? Does he step up to the plate and rally the troops? Ask industry to rise to the occasion and produce the coveted paper mask? No.
“Orange man is a big meanie”
We are pathetic. We don’t have the industrial capacity to make simple paper masks?
Oh I get it we can build condos though. Tons of them, as far as the eye can see.
But no masks sport. We have to rely on someone else.
Turns out that someone else is in much more dire straits then us. Have you looked at the US? It’s a Covid dumpster fire. They need their masks much more then we need their masks.
If Canada is over run with Covid and the country collapses – no big deal for the world. Nobody cares.
If America is over run with Covid and the country collapses- the whole world collapses and then China becomes the worlds top super power and we are all standing in a bat soup line alongside Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk.

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.04.20 at 1:20 pm

Sorry to hear of your predicament Smokey.
I suspect you will be kicking ass and taking names no matter where you are.
Just be sure to reserve a seat for me.
I’ll need the non pc company and you’ll need to get caught up on the latest blog gossip.

#35 not 1st on 04.04.20 at 1:22 pm

I have news for everyone, there are trees in the US so I doubt Trump is sweating it.

Why cant Bombardier make them? Seems like the plane and train biz is going to be dead for a while.

#36 Keen Reader on 04.04.20 at 1:23 pm

@Smoking Man:

Terrible news, sorry to hear. Just re-read your e-book recently, good laughs and wise tidbits to be gleaned. Even my wife liked it! Glad you took the time to write and thanks for your numerous contributions to this blog’s comments (the uncensored ones, anyway!). Life is indeed short, enjoy every moment left, as we all should!

Guy

#37 MF on 04.04.20 at 1:31 pm

4 not 1st on 04.04.20 at 11:21

Gonna agree.

The world has changed. Expect supply chains to be brought back home and away from places like China. The Premier actually stated that yesterday so it’s not just an idea.

It will never be as it was. There is talk that this virus will never go away and will just circulate like other corona viruses. My boomer parents are frightened. I assume millions of others are as well. Airline travel, cruises, restaurants, sporting events, hotels, concerts, real estate open houses are all going to suffer for a long long time.

It will never be as it was.

MF

#38 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 1:32 pm

#9 Trump and Masks on 04.04.20 at 11:34 am

I apologize if this was posted twice

As we know Trump is planning to stop shipments to Masks to Canada

——————–

You should apologize for posting it once.

As BS mentioned, it’s not true. Stop being reactionary just because Trump is named.

#39 Wrk.dover on 04.04.20 at 1:33 pm

I was just talking to an un-leveraged landlord from a twenty foot distance. He said he has told his tenants it’s free rent until they get back to work.

He knows tenants are assets, even though they have none and live cheque to cheque.

I bet that decision will pay him back well when they get back to work.

#40 BillyBob on 04.04.20 at 1:34 pm

#265 Barb on 04.04.20 at 11:37 am
Our niece is a flight attendant for Emirates air out of Dubai. She can’t get home to Vancouver, stuck in a hotel room, food brought in on order. Limited kitchen facility in her room. Receiving $400/mo from employer.

The reason she didn’t get out before borders were closed is due to a 14-day quarantine following a flight from USA.

Canadian consulate is beyond useless. Family is so worried, knowing Arabs’ penchant for relegating women as second class people. Puts a whole new spin on overseas jobs.

=================================================

Hmm. Where to begin?

I worked for Emirates Airline for nearly a decade, lived in Dubai the entire time. I have many friends both flight attendants and pilots, still working there today.

All flight attendants at Emirates are provided company accommodation free of charge, which is an apartment not a hotel. The only time I’ve ever seen anyone being put in a hotel was during a temporary shortage of leased accommodation during a hiring boom, but that was years ago.

All employees are presently on 50% of base salary, so your $400 doesn’t make sense. Even if your niece is absolutely brand new, the starting base salary for the lowest rank of cabin crew (GR 2, (before flight pay and layover allowance) is around $1800 CAD.

Your comment about “Arabs’ penchant for relegating women as second class people” is ignorant in the extreme. The way Arabs – or any ethnicity/culture – treat women varies wildly from country to country and even within countries. In the UAE, women are probably more represented in government positions proportionally than they are in Canada. Do not confuse Dubai with Jeddah or Doha.

You niece will be fine. Emirates has world-class medical services for its staff and no lack of money or resources. She’s safer than most Canadians in Canada.

That’s the true spin on that particular overseas job.

#41 Sold Out on 04.04.20 at 1:36 pm

#30 BS on 04.04.20 at 1:15 pm
#9 Trump and Masks on 04.04.20 at 11:34 am

I apologize if this was posted twice
As we know Trump is planning to stop shipments to Masks to Canada

Trump signed an executive order yesterday that 3M must supply masks in the US exclusively to the US, Canada and Mexico. Quit reading fake news.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

So, Dolt #45 and his ‘policy by tweet’ fail on April 02 was walked back by the grownups yesterday? After the grownups explained to Dim Donnie that America can’t actually produce everything they need to get through the current crisis?

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245876816922972162

#42 yvr_lurker on 04.04.20 at 1:44 pm

#8 Sail Away

I often speak to engineering classes as a guest lecturer and my go-to is discussing case studies. Disastrous ones are the best!

Speaking of that, maybe I know yvr_lurker… if you’re involved with UBC Engineering?
——————————

Maybe we have crossed paths…. but let’s not look under the hood…

#43 Stone on 04.04.20 at 1:46 pm

#13 Throwing in the towel on 04.04.20 at 12:04 pm
I want to thank everyone at Garth Turner investments for advice during these extraordinary times.
Yes I am stressed, to be honest the Convid19 virus does not worry me. It’s all the misinformation, conspiracy theories and advice, and don’t even get me going on governments saying saying July to September. Really? do you really know? Honestly the death rate is nothing.
But you make charts and say this would have happened?
I don’t think so. Again make up stats based on what?

To me the most Important thing is the economy!

And right now even advice about the economy range from a great reset to Depression to V recovery to long and painful recovery that may take years. All over the map
Many say move into cash, many say it’s too late, many say hang on to your hat.

So yes I am fed up
Even if I don’t understand all these financial newsletters even this one is confusing one day housing will bust the next day hang on sunny skies are ahead to this one today about ETFs and leverage, is this important?

So what do we know as facts
Millions unemployed originalLy 4 months now longer?this cannot be good no matter how you spin it.
So same goes for all the spending poof!
I think you said a million missed rents and mortgage payments. Surly this is not a one off, more likely 6 months
Same for commercial real-estate
Thousand of small business bankrupt they are not coming back, maybe someone will rise from the ashes but who has money?

You compare this to the Great War and the Spanish flu that’s killed 50 million and yes they survived and moved forward. Yes we are a bunch of softies
Different generation different times.

Anyway I am hitting the sell button Monday. I might loose, but if you are wrong then this is going to end with millions loosing everything. No v curve recovery because you don’t have any analysis all you have that’s the way it was in the past. There will be no one to buy because all the stock market rise was corporations buy backs.
I think recovery in 5 years not 5 months.

Good luck and thanks again I want to believe you are right but I am exhausted and it’s not even close to being over.

There will be many buyers happy you are giving up. – Garth

———

Are we moving into the capitulation phase of the BMO chart?

If yes, that only leaves the despondency phase and the depression phase.

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/03/28/closer-to-the-bottom/

Just curious, how farare you down that you’re willing to throw in the towel?

#44 Damifino on 04.04.20 at 1:48 pm

#29 Throwing in the troll

Ten percent of my net worth is in cash. The rest is firmly invested for the long term. I’ve operated that way for over ten years contrary to advice from many that I had far too high a reserve. I understood the reasoning but I never wanted to risk that last 10%. I called in my ‘sleep at night’ money.

It turns out to be a fair lump of dough. Enough to pay my way for quite a long while. I certainly will not be selling any of the remaining 90% into the storm.

You sound like a fellow without any reserve operating funds. That’s the only reason I can see for the mistake you are about to make. Everyone I’ve known who crystallized losses in a crisis never recovered them.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.04.20 at 1:48 pm

@ Question PRC Authority

Well. Its a start.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6766984/coronavirus-china-eating-dogs-cats-ban/

Now if only they could admit they have an HIV epidemic.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(18)30098-7/fulltext

#46 Stone on 04.04.20 at 1:50 pm

#32 Richmond will be under water by 2014 on 04.04.20 at 1:18 pm
Lulz at all the triggered Canadians over Trump doing exactly the type of thing he ran his entire campaign and based his entire political Avatar on. Obviously domestic made vital emergency equipment that is in extreme shortage needs to remain domestic in an emergency!
Trump loses nothing and his base absolutely loves it.
The triggered Canadian snowflakes are insufferable. Every
Single
Channel
The mashing and gnashing of teeth is deafening.
What does our leader do? Does he step up to the plate and rally the troops? Ask industry to rise to the occasion and produce the coveted paper mask? No.
“Orange man is a big meanie”
We are pathetic. We don’t have the industrial capacity to make simple paper masks?
Oh I get it we can build condos though. Tons of them, as far as the eye can see.
But no masks sport. We have to rely on someone else.
Turns out that someone else is in much more dire straits then us. Have you looked at the US? It’s a Covid dumpster fire. They need their masks much more then we need their masks.
If Canada is over run with Covid and the country collapses – no big deal for the world. Nobody cares.
If America is over run with Covid and the country collapses- the whole world collapses and then China becomes the worlds top super power and we are all standing in a bat soup line alongside Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk.

———

There’s an error in what you wrote. If that comes to pass, we won’t be in a bat soup line. We will be the bat soup. Count on it.

#47 oh bouy on 04.04.20 at 1:52 pm

@#32 Richmond will be under water by 2014 on 04.04.20 at 1:18 pm
Lulz at all the triggered Canadians over Trump
__________________

Lulz at all the canadians hanging onto trumps every word.
weirdos.

#48 BrianT on 04.04.20 at 2:08 pm

Why are Canadians terrified of a cause of death that is extremely unlikely yet totally complacent about other far more likely causes of their death? It seems like 80% of the public have zero ability to think logically when bombarded with non stop propaganda.

#49 MF on 04.04.20 at 2:10 pm

39 BillyBob on 04.04.20 at 1:34

Even during a pandemic you have to bash Canada by claiming utter falsehoods. Gotta ask why?

Do me a favour. Do a quick google. Type in “best places to live in the world”.

See which countries show up.

MF

#50 Jeff on 04.04.20 at 2:13 pm

Hi Doug, does a 1x inverse ETF (e.g. HIU) have the exact same volatility drag as a standard 1x ETF like XSP? So as per your example a $250 loss on $100,000 over two trading days?

#51 NFN_NLN on 04.04.20 at 2:25 pm

#5 Lahdeedah on 04.04.20 at 11:25 am
Why would anyone ever buy mining or energy stocks or ETFs? They are volatile and cyclical and fickle.

Because they’re at the bottom of the cycle dumb dumb.

#52 Lost...but not leased on 04.04.20 at 2:25 pm

Later I will post a video that has Bill Gates as a panelist.

I used to think he was some banal kind of Nerd…and on the more philosophical side of vaccines.

Now I see him in a much MUCH different light.

This dude is a psycho……he is into full bore global communism and using the COVID 19 as leverage.

More Later…

#53 Sam on 04.04.20 at 2:27 pm

Many overconfident investors think that they’re prepared for the risk and volatility that comes with using leveraged ETFs, but in reality they’re not

……..

nonsense

winners and losers in life. Notice you said nothing about the winners on the trade. Focusing onlt on the losers. Fear sells in the ‘advisory’ world.

#54 BS on 04.04.20 at 2:30 pm

#40 Sold Out on 04.04.20 at 1:36 pm

This was Trumps tweet you linked to:

We hit 3M hard today after seeing what they were doing with their Masks. “P Act” all the way. Big surprise to many in government as to what they were doing – will have a big price to pay!

The fake news reported that Trump will not ship masks to Canada when in fact what he did was stop masks being shipped from the US overseas to the highest bidder and restricted shipments to withing the US, Canada and Mexico. You can read the order he was referring to in the tweet instead of getting fake news to interpret it for you. The fake news is still reporting today that masks are being held from Canada. Maybe get a different source of information so you can quit embarrassing yourself.

#55 JacqueShellacque on 04.04.20 at 2:38 pm

Doug/Garth,

Given how we’ve 3 times in the last 20 years seen events that most advisors using standard prediction models say couldn’t be possible once in 20,000, doesn’t it seem a non-terrible strategy to put a small but certain percentage of one’s portfolio into betting on volatility, unpredictability, and the certainty that some banking bozos will run us into the ground again in even more spectacular fashion than before at some point before mid-century? This is Taleb’s point (seeing reference to the black swan, I’m sure you’ve read the book) that you can make the upside possible with minimal cost.

#56 BS on 04.04.20 at 2:39 pm

#29 Throwing in the towel on 04.04.20 at 1:13 pm

Thanks for commenting Mr.Turner
You are right of course
But that’s because the smarts ones had cash and sold before the crash.
I will have cash when we hit bottom so I will be a buyer as well when the real panic sets in.
Cheers have a wonderful day!

Easier said than done. Few people are able buy at the bottom. That is why you have a bottom because there are few buyers at that point. Once everyone rushes in to buy the bottom, the bottom is gone and you missed it. What makes you think you are in the top of all traders which will get the bottom right? Based on your current record with no cash already a month in to the correction I would say extremity low you time this right. Remember the news will be worse at or near the bottom so you will be even more scared than you are today. Once the news changes to give you confidence to buy the bottom will be long, long gone.

#57 Landlord Larry on 04.04.20 at 2:42 pm

21 MPAC on 04.04.20 at 12:41 pm

“@#13 based on the dozens of RE investors I’ve spoken with, and I attended a webinar where listeners were polled to determine how many of their tenants didn’t pay rent for April, the numbers seem to be around 8% of tenants haven’t paid rent ( around 200 hundred people in the Greater Toronto Area were polled).

Everyone of my tenants paid, but I expect May – August to be much much worse.”

As I said in a previous post, I have always looked at my tenants are partners with me. In any partnership both sides have to give something of value to the other side for there to be harmony. I have never, ever charged full market rents. I have had other landlords I know roll their eyes, call me an idiot for doing this but the reason should be obvious. I wanted longterm tenants who paid their rents and in times like this they are not going to stiff me. The landlords you cite above do not have this relationship with their tenants. So the tenants will stick it to the landlord because in their minds (and probably correctly) they see the landlord as just a money collecting jerk and not a friend like mine see me…

#58 Lost...but not leased on 04.04.20 at 2:44 pm

In that vein, I now give you free access to all the infectious disease control experts, public health authorities, pandemic modelers and renowned epidemiologists in the comments section. Enjoy.
GARTH

===============================

Re COVID 19:

It was reported that people who have taken the Flu shots aka “vaccines” are testing POSITIVE for COVID 19( this is in addition to a large % of FALSE POSITIVES being determined for those tested )

Economic Recovery ?
I am watching experts saying this “pandemic” may roll out for (2) + Years.

#59 not 1st on 04.04.20 at 2:46 pm

#36 MF on 04.04.20 at 1:31 pm
—-

If the choice is globalization and cheap products vs my health, freedom, community and security, its a slam dunk.

Bye bye china. Have fund with your communist dystopia.

#60 Jackrabbit Johannsen on 04.04.20 at 2:50 pm

#263 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 11:01 am
#249 Jack Rabbit Johannsen on 04.04.20 at 9:04 am

——————

“Good story. Thanks!

Similar in some respects to one of my heroes: Dick Proennekke, who built a cabin in the Alaskan bush in his 50’s and kept detailed tecords:”

You’re welcome and thanks for the link to Dick Proennekke. Great video. He was a modern day Henry David Thoreau. Good for him!

#61 Yuus bin Haad on 04.04.20 at 2:56 pm

I’ve never seen Mayor Tory so angry – there he was, with a gaggle of ne’re-do-wells on the sidewalk, going on about those evil scofflaws walking their dogs in the park. Imagine!

#62 Think! on 04.04.20 at 3:00 pm

Some posters minimize covid vs the flu. The flu doesn’t put as many in ICU at the same time. That’s why we are trying to flatten the curve. Covid is overwhelming our medical resources.

#63 MF on 04.04.20 at 3:02 pm

#22 Don Guillermo on 04.04.20 at 12:47 pm
Global CV-19 update (numbers rounded) April 04th
Cases: 1,150,000
Deaths: 66,000

Typical Global annual flu (numbers rounded)
Cases: 5,000,000
Deaths: 650,000

-So covid already has 1/5 total cases of annual flu in just a month, even though the annual flu has been circulating for thousands of years.

Got it. Thanks Dan.

MF

#64 Reality is stark on 04.04.20 at 3:07 pm

Trudeau bragging that Canadians isolated themselves better than Americans so will have the health capacity to handle the crisis.
The reality is that our population is less dense (supposedly?). We never took any special precautions and I’ve witnessed our young folks congregating without a care in the world. We have a similar western laissez fairer attitude as the USA.
Mayor DiBlasio from New York wants forced enlistment of former health care workers to New York State as well as expropriation of health care equipment from other states to go to New York immediately.
Where do you think this is going?
Exactly. Trump is not going to let Americans die in the streets while adjacent states and Provinces have patient capacity and medical staff.
Mr. Trudeau will not have the luxury of excluding Americans from our hospitals.
This is about to turn ugly.

#65 Sail away on 04.04.20 at 3:24 pm

Hopefully the Canadian live animal markets never shut down.

I’m a huge fan of:

Chilcotin grouse
Alberta pheasants
Kelowna turkeys
Deer, elk, moose
Salmon, trout and bottomfish

Round it out with the odd squirrel or rabbit. We don’t really buy meat…

#66 Don Guillermo on 04.04.20 at 3:25 pm

#62 MF on 04.04.20 at 3:02 pm
#22 Don Guillermo on 04.04.20 at 12:47 pm
Global CV-19 update (numbers rounded) April 04th
Cases: 1,150,000
Deaths: 66,000
Typical Global annual flu (numbers rounded)
Cases: 5,000,000
Deaths: 650,000
-So covid already has 1/5 total cases of annual flu in just a month, even though the annual flu has been circulating for thousands of years.
Got it. Thanks Dan.
MF
***************************************

It’s just data MoFO.

Feel free to interpret how you choose. We know Coviod has been around longer than a month. I believe much longer but that’s just my speculation.

Also, feel free to add any data of your own. Emotional responses are not very helpful .

#67 Lost...but not leased on 04.04.20 at 3:30 pm

NYC…

DeBlasio and Cuomo

Isn’t that USA equivalent of Toronto…aka center of the universe ???

This appears to be ” 9/11 ” 2.0…Fear Porn central
Stir and Repeat.

Hmm….

#68 Doug Rowat on 04.04.20 at 3:31 pm

#54 JacqueShellacque on 04.04.20 at 2:38 pm

Doug/Garth,

…doesn’t it seem a non-terrible strategy to put a small but certain percentage of one’s portfolio into betting on volatility, unpredictability, and the certainty that some banking bozos will run us into the ground again in even more spectacular fashion than before at some point before mid-century? This is Taleb’s point (seeing reference to the black swan, I’m sure you’ve read the book) that you can make the upside possible with minimal cost.

There’s some merit to including products designed to track, say, the Cboe Volatility Index. But such ETFs, if held long term, generally speaking, go to zero. Therefore they almost perpetually need to be ‘topped up’ to maintain their usefulness. Such ETFs also usually aren’t cheap running close to a 1% MER.

Yes, they will pay off big once a decade or so, but it’s a pretty discouraging ride while you’re waiting.

A balanced, global portfolio filled with plenty of low-to-negatively correlated assets will serve you just as well.

–Doug

#69 Not So New guy on 04.04.20 at 3:35 pm

#26 Jesse Livermore on 04.03.20 at 4:06 pm

#354 Not So New guy on 04.03.20 at 1:31 pm

“Frustration is when you realize that had you made your trades in a slightly different way, but equally safe, you would have made $30k last month.”

Nothing like hindsight being 20/20 huh?

=============================

Settle down there, shotgun.

The market did exactly what I expected. The ironic part was that I just got a little too greedy and complacent. I was picking up nickles and playing both sides of the trade while waiting for the big crackup-boom. It actually went farther than I planned

I have since adjusted. It’s Mr. Market’s move next

…now I only need to wait another 80 years for a similar once in a lifetime event to cash in again :D

#70 Rintin on 04.04.20 at 3:38 pm

Better to buy stocks themselves. Just look at the top 10 or 20 etf holdings and voila.

With zero fee trades why not, cheaper than etf fees and better control.

Besides too many etf are just synthetic, why stick ur money in fake nothing when you can be a real shareholder?

#71 MF on 04.04.20 at 3:42 pm

#65 Don Guillermo on 04.04.20 at 3:25 pm

-It’s just a flu Dan. That was how your data was intended to be interpreted. Amirite?

MF

#72 mark on 04.04.20 at 3:46 pm

How do i get smoking mans book?

#73 Barb on 04.04.20 at 3:47 pm

#39 BillyBob on 04.04.20 at 1:34 pm

Thanks for replying. I’ve sent your comment to her mother; hopefully she’s reassured by its content.
Appreciate your cutting through the “family miscommunication chafe”.

#74 Figure it Out on 04.04.20 at 3:53 pm

Some people seem a bit confused as to what Trump did or didn’t order yesterday, regarding exports of PPE.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/memorandum-allocating-certain-scarce-threatened-health-medical-resources-domestic-use/

“… the Federal Emergency Management Agency, in consultation with the Secretary of Health and Human Services, shall use any and all authority available under section 101 of the Act to allocate to domestic use, as appropriate, the following scarce or threatened materials …”

No mention of Canada or Mexico. No surprise there.

#75 Sail away on 04.04.20 at 3:59 pm

#68 Not So New guy on 04.04.20 at 3:35 pm

…now I only need to wait another 80 years for a similar once in a lifetime event to cash in again :D

—————

Maybe for that specific trade, but we have a long and broad base of opportunity staring us in the face right now.

#76 Smoking Man on 04.04.20 at 4:11 pm

Thanks for the kind words dogs..

Much appreciated..

#77 Lost...but not leased on 04.04.20 at 4:12 pm

Local Gov’t insolvency?

https://www.richmond-news.com/city-of-vancouver-lays-off-1-500-workers-during-pandemic-fears-loss-of-200-million-in-revenue-1.24112570

====================

A LOT of hurt is coming to a Local Gov’t near you.

Layoffs of Civic Workers are ramping up.

Their “Reserves”, on average… appear to be at or less than a years’ annual budget.

City of Vancouver was looking at 7% property tax increase…can’t get blood out of a stone.

Lean and Mean will be the new normal.

#78 Trojan House on 04.04.20 at 4:22 pm

#195 Genesis II on 04.03.20 at 9:28 pm

Thanks for posting that essay. It was very well written and extremely well thought out. His thoughts regarding the numbers hits the nail on the head – we just don’t know, even though the MSM and health organizations keep touting them.

I don’t necessarily buy in to what he’s selling in his conclusion, however, I believe the writer is bang on when he says that our culture (Western) has been taught to live in fear of death, over the last 30 years or so, rather than the fear of not living life to its fullest (I’m paraphrasing this obviously). And he makes really good points arguing that position.

#79 Jimmy on 04.04.20 at 4:31 pm

Here is the link to SM book:

https://www.amazon.ca/Deplorables-Dyslexic-Smoking-Man-ebook/dp/B01MXKNY5N

#80 Camille on 04.04.20 at 4:31 pm

Thank you Doug for showing what is speculative, risky, and why. How would you consider covered call blue chip etfs, do you invest in these products, or do you consider these derivatives also?
Note that ZJK is a high yield bond etf, with exposure to USD (extra protection), and is not performing too poorly. Many funds have some limited exposure to high yield.
Also, TMF tracks treasury yields very well with no decay, approximately 50 year duration.

#81 Flop... on 04.04.20 at 4:34 pm

Look at the chart from 2000 onwards.

Last time I saw something go that straight up, I had to thank viagra…

M45BC

Visualizing the Ever-Rising National Debt.

“Congress and President Trump are responding to the coronavirus pandemic by pumping over $2T of stimulus into the economy. The government is sending checks to workers, guaranteeing loans to small businesses and propping up the airlines. And all of this activity is adding to the national debt, which as our latest visual illustrates, has been exploding for years.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/timeline-us-debt-history

#82 espressobob on 04.04.20 at 5:01 pm

#69 Rintin

ETFs that track major indices by market capitalization for a small fee are hardly synthetic. Quite the opposite and re weight on their own with no effort on the part of a retail investor and said ETFs own the underlying individual stocks anyways.

No brainer. No conspiracy theory.

#83 Haven't read a lot of ... on 04.04.20 at 5:02 pm

the comments lately … what’s with Smoking Man? He is a fictional character by his own words. If he truly is not well … I wish him all the best … stay strong …

#84 Attrition on 04.04.20 at 5:08 pm

#8 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 11:31 am

Thanks Doug, good post. I love cautionary tales.

I often speak to engineering classes as a guest lecturer and my go-to is discussing case studies. Disastrous ones are the best!

Speaking of that, maybe I know yvr_lurker… if you’re involved with UBC Engineering?

Twenty years ago, I worked in IT at UBC. Strolling down from the car park one morning with my carpooling co-worker, I noticed a couple buildings and a little square covered with banners and graffiti.

They all said the same thing: “Gears are Qu**rs!”

It was part of a froth week battle with the commerce students, I think it was.

#85 BrianT on 04.04.20 at 5:14 pm

Even those who despise and hate Trump should realize that at this point he is literally the only chance we have to salvage this first world standard of living and society. Bill Gates and Drs Fauci and Birx all want the USA economy shut down until this virus completely vanishes even if it permanently destroys our society. Does anyone actually think Biden or Obama or Trudeau are not on board with Bill Gates on this one? Of course they are-Trump has been obviously controlled to a certain degree but there is the hope he wakes up and changes course before it is too late-there is ZERO chance Canada opens before the USA so it is Trump or nobody unless you like living the Bernie Sanders utopia-permanently lining up for toilet paper rations. https://nationalfile.com/president-trump-vs-bill-gates-on-treatment-fauci-has-a-100-million-conflict-of-interest/

#86 Lost...but not leased on 04.04.20 at 5:28 pm

Smoking Man:

Reading between the lines…from last post.

Legacy is QUALITY…not quantity.

Wishing you all the best !!!

#87 islander on 04.04.20 at 5:37 pm

http://www.ekathimerini.com/251279/opinion/ekathimerini/comment/coronavirus-kills-off-neoliberalism

Coronavirus kills off neoliberalism in Europe

“The coronavirus is likely to produce the biggest paradigmatic shift in economic policy that Europe has witnessed since the 1980s. As governments switch to new policy instruments, the biggest economic casualty of the coronavirus across Europe looks set to be neoliberalism.”

#88 Smoking Man on 04.04.20 at 5:47 pm

Operation Mockingbird. Just love MSM.

https://youtu.be/rUDP6e5N9gw

#89 mark on 04.04.20 at 5:53 pm

Who could have looked at this nonsense and not seen it happening during a crisis?

“We built Fundrise portfolios to be a fortress in times of uncertainty”

Five points in, that’s why were suspending redemptions!

https://fundrise.com/education/blog-posts/we-built-fundrise-portfolios-to-be-a-fortress-in-times-of-uncertainty

#90 Smoking Man on 04.04.20 at 5:57 pm

Google below.

Corvid-1984

#91 Doug Rowat on 04.04.20 at 6:01 pm

#69 Rintin on 04.04.20 at 3:38 pm

Better to buy stocks themselves. Just look at the top 10 or 20 etf holdings and voila.

It takes 50-60 positions to properly control unsystematic risk. If you want a global portfolio, double this number. How many bowling pins do you plan on juggling?

–Doug

#92 Dr V on 04.04.20 at 6:11 pm

76 – Lost – I’m thinkin’ on writing to a couple of local mayors about reducing our property taxes for this year.
I mean the feds are helping with the CERB right? And
the province with the $500 rental handout. As a
business owner I can get 75% wage subsidy for
employees. As a landlord I’m supposed to work with
my renters.

As the cities shut down services and lay off workers
their overall expenditures will shrink.

What do you think my chances are??

#93 not 1st on 04.04.20 at 6:13 pm

Garth/Doug, if there actually is an 12-18 month push on for this to continue or if this is likely to come back again in the fall before a vaccine is ready, you still wouldn’t sell and go to cash?

Whats going to be left of the economy and our finances after that?

If the cases aren’t slowing by middle of this month then I assume another sharp leg down is going to happen.

#94 kc on 04.04.20 at 6:32 pm

#47 BrianT on 04.04.20 at 2:08 pm

Why are Canadians terrified of a cause of death that is extremely unlikely yet totally complacent about other far more likely causes of their death? It seems like 80% of the public have zero ability to think logically when bombarded with non stop propaganda.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

BINGO, turn off the TV news, the radio and start to think for your selves. Critical thinking might get you to the point of thinking that this virus is a cover up for the crash in the world credit market and the banks’ short term money market went bust… 2 Trillion dollar bailouts?

Why else would the world’s economy be completely nuked?

Also ask one other question… take NYC and draw a 300 mile radius, then take a look at what cities that circle includes… now one last question, what part of the usa would get bombed first? Floating naval hospital in New York… why?

#95 binky barnes on 04.04.20 at 6:35 pm

I am hopeful that Canada can become less dependent on China–and to a lesser extent the USA–going forward.

#96 Penny Henny on 04.04.20 at 6:42 pm

How can anyone resist investing in a ETF called ‘GUSH’.
It sounds so orgasmic!

#97 People Panic on 04.04.20 at 6:43 pm

Maybe the toilet paper panic was the right thing to do after all:

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/this-is-interesting-what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-it-isnt-really-about-hoarding-and-there-isnt-an-easy-fix/

Although I can’t see why they couldn’t just start selling commercial toilet paper at Costco.

#98 This just in on 04.04.20 at 6:51 pm

Showroom dummies droppin’ like flies:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KFo5JPIeZ6c&list=PL50VqWgr-XoFK9WXreVnOYqSWPqdIpy-F

#99 Lost...but not leased on 04.04.20 at 7:03 pm

#91 Dr V on 04.04.20 at 6:11 pm
76 – Lost – I’m thinkin’ on writing to a couple of local mayors about reducing our property taxes for this year.
I mean the feds are helping with the CERB right? And
the province with the $500 rental handout. As a
business owner I can get 75% wage subsidy for
employees. As a landlord I’m supposed to work with
my renters.

As the cities shut down services and lay off workers
their overall expenditures will shrink.

What do you think my chances are??
===============================

Its WHEN…..not IF…

My own stooooooooopid Local Gov’t placed “BETS”(..no pun intended)…on casino revenue.

At peak..they were garnering over $20 Million annually.

My “napkin math” has resulted in “conservative” calculation of approx. $300,000 in weekly revenue dependent on casino. Their “reserve” fund is barely above their annual budget.

They have irresponsibly pi$$ed away millions of OUR tax etc. dollars on fatuous self -deification projects…y’now Mayor and Council and Top bureaucrats have torn down and rebuilt various civic projects(ie Fire Halls…Rec centers etc. etc.)

Silver Lining=Lets not let a cri$i$ go to waste…
We need a major purge and attitude adjustment at ALL levels of gov’t.

#100 Ordinary Blog Dog on 04.04.20 at 7:09 pm

@SM

Hope you and yours are ok SM. I have enjoyed your posts over the years. I have laughed, and I have cried …. laughing! You also made me think about some things you have mentioned, you closet Voltaire you. And I think you are the second most popular blogger here, only surpassed by the Oracle of Lunenburg. You keep posting – I will keep looking for your message.

#101 Steve French on 04.04.20 at 7:16 pm

Yo Smoking Man:

Brain cancer– is this,… for real?

Or is this part of your next character re-invention?

Hang in there mate… remember:

“When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.” – Hunter S.

#102 Nonplused on 04.04.20 at 7:19 pm

Good article Doug.

I think it is important for people to also understand that when investing in a leveraged fund, you are in a sense using margin like you would in a margin account. I’m not sure exactly how it works with a short fund, but a long fund has to use margin to buy the 3x or 2x or whatever it is shares. This comes with a financial cost. It also means as the share price declines they either have to post additional margin or get closed out. I think that is one of the reasons these funds tend to perform so poorly. In the long run it is hard to recover the margin costs. It is also why the can go to zero on what would seem a survivable move in the stock market. For example a 3x fund will have its margin wiped out by a 33% move but the situation is made much worse as they are forced to liquidate. I think that’s how it works anyway.

I’ve seen some funds set up so the manager is offering both long and short leveraged funds with the idea being to basically match speculators against each other, reducing risk for the firm and also margin expenses. But this doesn’t always work as there is no way to guarantee there will be as many shorts as longs in the market. At least with shares, shorts have to “borrow” shares so they can never exceed the number of longs.

Also shorts beware! In both stocks and commodities it is assumed that the value can’t go below zero, but the upside is not bounded. So being short always has a limited potential return, but being long does not.

(Zero = bankruptcy for shares and it is usually a rare short term occurrence for commodities to trade below zero. There are some notable exceptions for byproducts. Sulfur was a good example years ago. It wasn’t worth shipping so it piled up in huge amounts outside Alberta gas plants. The piles are all gone now though.)

#103 Drinking on 04.04.20 at 7:27 pm

Good post Doug, yep, the barn door closed!

#104 Faron on 04.04.20 at 7:27 pm

#65 Don Guillermo on 04.04.20 at 3:25 pm

#62 MF on 04.04.20 at 3:02 pm
#22 Don Guillermo on 04.04.20 at 12:47 pm
Global CV-19 update (numbers rounded) April 04th
Cases: 1,150,000
Deaths: 66,000
Typical Global annual flu (numbers rounded)
Cases: 5,000,000
Deaths: 650,000

——–

-So covid already has 1/5 total cases of annual flu in just a month, even though the annual flu has been circulating for thousands of years.
Got it. Thanks Dan.
MF

————–

Here are some dispassionate numbers for you Don.

From the US CDC:

Total annual deaths from all causes in the US: 2.8 million per year

Deaths per day is that divided by 365 or: 7600 per day

The 2017/2018 year was bad for flu and pneumonia (they are tracked together) and was responsible for 11% of all deaths at its peak from both flu and pneumonia.

0.11 * 7600 = 836 deaths per day.

However, pneumonia and flu are lumped together. Not all pneumonia comes from flu, so the actual flu deaths are lower. 10% of that total is typically attributable to flu, leading to 83 deaths per day. The real number of flu induced deaths is somewhere in between.

Yesterday, with coronavirus still far below its peak lethality, 1328 people died in the US. 1328 / 83 = 16. Yes, 16 times more people are dying of coronavirus than they would of flu alone per day when compared to a recent high mortality flu peak death period.

Even if you assume all pneumonia+flu deaths arose from flu, you get 1328 / 836 = 1.58.

A typical year peak flu death rate is 7.6% of deaths. This leads to P+I death rate of (.076 / .11) * 836 = 576 deaths per day at peak. 1328 / 577 = 2.3, or coronavirus is 2.3 times deadlier than baseline flu+pneumonia at best or ( 0.076 / 0.11) * 83 = 57 deaths per day. 1328 / 57 = 23.3, meaning over a typical year, coronavirus is 23.3 times deadlier than flu alone at worst. Again, the answer is in between.

Plus, this year is actually above baseline for flu deaths so the coronavirus deaths are happening on top of an already high flu death rate.

Sources:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

Get over it. This isn’t a conspiracy and it is serious.

#105 John in Mtl on 04.04.20 at 7:34 pm

#19 Johnny Peede on 04.04.20 at 12:24 pm
” The future is going back to basics, a stock pickers game, retail punters not welcome. The floor will be cleared of weak hands. ”

Huh? were all those HFT computers destroyed overnight? This gigantic casino known as the stock market will continue, and continue, and continue…

But life will never be the same again. Globalism gonna die down quite a lot.

#106 Armchair Medic on 04.04.20 at 7:35 pm

#98 This just in on 04.04.20 at 6:51 pm
Showroom dummies droppin’ like flies:

———————-

Dude, dummies are used for training all the time. Beware of the Flat Earth society. They can find a conspiracy in anything, and they are oblivious to facts. They see what they want to see.

But I suppose if the moon landings were a hoax to your way of thinking then coronavirus could be a hoax too. The difference is of course that if you don’t believe in the moon landings or the space station or dinosaurs it isn’t going to get us all killed!

#107 Happy Basement Dweller on 04.04.20 at 8:20 pm

What, no real estate hating today? I love my moms basement.

#108 Hoonigan on 04.04.20 at 8:22 pm

MF on Billybob…

Even during a pandemic you have to bash Canada by claiming utter falsehoods. Gotta ask why?

What’s your point here, MF? Do you feel that Billybob is being untruthful in his assessment of the situation in Dubai? Have you worked as an expat in the Middle East? Are you aircrew?

Stick to commenting on what you know, whatever that is…

Personally, I’ve got a number of Canadian friends in the aviation field stranded in unpleasant situations (Yemen, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, China..).
They are hunkered down for the duration.
Luck of the draw I’m not one of them, fortuitously taking a semi-retirement job with a Canadian aeromedical operator last year.

#109 TurnerNation on 04.04.20 at 8:31 pm

Inverse ETFs? Naw this is the great Inversion our rulers have planned.

– healthy people are presumed sick
– law abiding people and laid off people are being arrested and fined for socalizing
– criminals are being freed and not held in jail as courts are closed.
– police stopped enforcement of traffic laws and minor offences. So much for serve and protect our communities. And they are enjoying full pay for little work. Our heroes are they?
– Thrifty savers are punished over and over again by surprise interest rate cuts.
– thriftless uhh spendthrifts also are rewarded with the government handouts.
– small business and job creators are being destroyed.
– the means of capital are being seized by lenders, government.
Everything was turned upside down for the new system coming. Hang on.

#110 Don Guillermo on 04.04.20 at 8:31 pm

#105 Faron on 04.04.20 at 7:27 pm

Here are some dispassionate numbers for you Don.
From the US CDC:
Total annual deaths from all causes in the US: 2.8 million per year
Deaths per day is that divided by 365 or: 7600 per day
The 2017/2018 year was bad for flu and pneumonia (they are tracked together) and was responsible for 11% of all deaths at its peak from both flu and pneumonia.
0.11 * 7600 = 836 deaths per day.
However, pneumonia and flu are lumped together. Not all pneumonia comes from flu, so the actual flu deaths are lower. 10% of that total is typically attributable to flu, leading to 83 deaths per day. The real number of flu induced deaths is somewhere in between.
Yesterday, with coronavirus still far below its peak lethality, 1328 people died in the US. 1328 / 83 = 16. Yes, 16 times more people are dying of coronavirus than they would of flu alone per day when compared to a recent high mortality flu peak death period.
Even if you assume all pneumonia+flu deaths arose from flu, you get 1328 / 836 = 1.58.
A typical year peak flu death rate is 7.6% of deaths. This leads to P+I death rate of (.076 / .11) * 836 = 576 deaths per day at peak. 1328 / 577 = 2.3, or coronavirus is 2.3 times deadlier than baseline flu+pneumonia at best or ( 0.076 / 0.11) * 83 = 57 deaths per day. 1328 / 57 = 23.3, meaning over a typical year, coronavirus is 23.3 times deadlier than flu alone at worst. Again, the answer is in between.
Plus, this year is actually above baseline for flu deaths so the coronavirus deaths are happening on top of an already high flu death rate.
Sources:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
Get over it. This isn’t a conspiracy and it is serious
******************************************
Thanks for the numbers Faron. I appreciate it. I’m not in the conspiracy theory camp. I’m concerned the cure maybe worse than the disease. If the virus can kill millions a decimated global economy can kill billions. We need to get this right.

#111 Re-Cowtown on 04.04.20 at 8:49 pm

Trudeau now wants to make gun control a priority. What a tone deaf pultroon. But I can see why he wants to disarm the peasants; he’s scared of them.

So how about this: Start small. Make guns illegal in Toronto (Not the GTA, just the burg of Toronto) first. Totally illegal. 100% illegal. Zero tolerance. This is what they want. Give it to them. Monitor the crime stats. Then see how many shootings there are.

If no massive drop in shootings in TO, then there’s no point rolling it out to farms on the prairies.

#112 akashic record on 04.04.20 at 8:59 pm

@Smoking Man

Wishing you well!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwUxXQlKvHs

#113 Sold Out on 04.04.20 at 9:12 pm

#54 BS on 04.04.20 at 2:30 pm
#40 Sold Out on 04.04.20 at 1:36 pm

This was Trumps tweet you linked to:

We hit 3M hard today after seeing what they were doing with their Masks. “P Act” all the way. Big surprise to many in government as to what they were doing – will have a big price to pay!

The fake news reported that Trump will not ship masks to Canada when in fact what he did was stop masks being shipped from the US overseas to the highest bidder and restricted shipments to withing the US, Canada and Mexico. You can read the order he was referring to in the tweet instead of getting fake news to interpret it for you. The fake news is still reporting today that masks are being held from Canada. Maybe get a different source of information so you can quit embarrassing yourself.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I think it’s safe to say, sit down and STFU.

#114 akashic record on 04.04.20 at 9:15 pm

Blog dogs, any of you knows someone personally, who is infected with covid-19?

#115 Wrk.dover on 04.04.20 at 9:21 pm

81 Flop… on 04.04.20 at 4:34 pm
Look at the chart from 2000 onwards.

Last time I saw something go that straight up, I had to thank viagra…

M45BC

———————————————-

Shortly before it hit 7/8 of a trillion, the stuff I was reading then was pretty panicky about that point of being that of no return. Learn to fix stuff they said, buy a chain saw and tiller then go very rural, become self sufficient on multi purpose land they said. Nurture it they said.

Worked out pretty good all along the way to here, that Boomer cool aide I drank from 78-82.

Thanks, Mother Earth News, issues 22 thru 100.

Google it Player 1

M66NS

#116 Stone on 04.04.20 at 9:21 pm

#89 mark on 04.04.20 at 5:53 pm
Who could have looked at this nonsense and not seen it happening during a crisis?

“We built Fundrise portfolios to be a fortress in times of uncertainty”

Five points in, that’s why were suspending redemptions!

https://fundrise.com/education/blog-posts/we-built-fundrise-portfolios-to-be-a-fortress-in-times-of-uncertainty

———

That was a fun read. I especially like the following item:

“Why we are suspending redemptions

Fundamentally, Fundrise investors own real property, which is simply not liquid.“

Well duh, Sherlock. I actually don’t feel sorry for those who invested in this.

That is hilarious!

#117 Nonplused on 04.04.20 at 9:22 pm

Not surprised this is surfacing on YouTube again:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRuS3dxKK9U

#118 People Panic on 04.04.20 at 9:37 pm

Not surprised this is surfacing on YouTube again:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRuS3dxKK9U

———————-

The virus just exposed our underbellies to the lions. This shouldn’t have been a big deal in the days of genetic sequencing and N95’s. But, debt. Nobody had anything in the pantry because they were servicing debt. Not even enough N95’s or toilet paper to go around. It’s all debt. Now we have to pay with our lives.

#119 Terry on 04.04.20 at 9:49 pm

For all those contemplating selling in this investment climate think of investments like it was your house. Do you consider selling your house every time things get rough and real estate loses value? Or do you tough it out and wait for better conditions? Do you appraise your home every year, or worry about whether or not it’s worth more this month than last? After all, if you’re not selling and you don’t need the money, who cares!

#120 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 9:56 pm

#105 Faron on 04.04.20 at 7:27 pm

Get over it. This isn’t a conspiracy and it is serious.

———————

That’s your opinion.

Just understand that you may very well be wrong.

#121 YouKnowWho on 04.04.20 at 9:58 pm

#105 Faron on 04.04.20 at 7:27 pm

Hey, a lot of numbers being thrown around.

2017-2018 CDC notes 61,000 deaths due to Seasonal Flu, and that is an estimate in a range of 46,000 – 95,000

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

So that would give us 167 per day.

But here is the crux, it is called SEASONAL flu because it only lasts for a season. If you go with the December-February period, that’s only 3 months/90 days. Not scientific, but let us attribute 75% of the 61K US deaths to this 90 day peak flu season period, that’s 508 per day. What if the actual number was closer to 90K vs 61K? Now you get 750. See how those get close to the dramatic numbers reported?

Yeah, this maybe nasty version, but there are so many variables in this one to go along with it.

Consider a few points – not being insensitive, just stating facts.
– Americans are more obese than EVER!
– Smoking, drinking, weed – these habits have a price on health Faron.
– Laziness – Thanks Amazon! US is Amazon’s #1 market, is it not? How much stuff is shipped to Americans? Amazon is the very definition of laziness. Oh sure, call it convenience, it’s laziness. Amazon off-loads that American consumer laziness on an army of “slaves” that have to make up for that laziness by packing and bringing it to their lazy butt’s at their door.

Bottom line to what I’m saying is this…

Perhaps HUMANITY is not in a very good shape.

There are more of us than ever.
We’re fatter than ever.
We’ve neglected our health more than ever.
We’re living longer than ever.
We’re lazier than ever.

And while we’re at it who’s dying? People in the city of New York? Is that so? With that dirty air, all those particulates, emissions, Volkswagen Diesels, Mercedes “clean” Diesels, all those Diesel trucks making those Amazon deliveries, all those Diesel buses – what, did you think those fine particulates Volkswagens were emitting were not costing YOUR health? You don’t think they were selling YOUR lungs with their lies? REMINDER – DO NOT BUY a Volkswagen or a Mercedes, no matter how good the deal is. That crap is unforgivable. Don’t be a sellout!

…back to Humanity.

2020 Humanity Crop maybe particularly vulnerable and maybe the flu has a larger impact than usual because of the poor shape the “inventory” is in.

So, 2020, it’s not 61K, it’s 183K to trim off all these dry branches. 183K, 75% in the 90 days of peak flu season, 1525 per day.

$#!+ health decisions related to food, smoking, activity have a price Faron. Maybe 2020 is the year nature collects? Or Jesus punishes? As you wish.

But I’m not sure I’m happy about all this fear, being locked in my house, having time stolen for me to try to save some of these drying dying branches. I’m still debating that one – but nature seems to be pretty black and white on this issue normally. Maybe that is why I’m seeing so many young people out there running, biking, hiking, smelling the spring flowers. They’ve decided that those same Boomers that have made this place what it is, and showed little care for the environment deserve one back.

Ahhhhpshiu….was that a sneeze?! RUN BOOMER RUN! The young don’t give a crap about you.

#122 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 10:02 pm

#115 akashic record on 04.04.20 at 9:15 pm

Blog dogs, any of you knows someone personally, who is infected with covid-19?

——————–

Of course not. You?

#123 YouKnowWho on 04.04.20 at 10:02 pm

Oh, Faron – another thing – AGE!

Western world is getting older than ever. So as the older population represents a larger number, the impact of the “Blade Runner 2020” Flu is harsher, and that could be multiplying the numbers.

Forgot to mention that one. I hope I’m the first one to come up with Blade Runner Flu! It’s a pretty good one.

#124 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 10:07 pm

For those who think they know everything there is to know about this covid thing based on reported info, just think back to the times you invesred or didn’t invest in something based on reported news.

How many times did it turn out the story was a whole lot different behind the scenes? Yep, thought so.

Take every bit of news with a grain of salt.

Believe nothing that you hear and only half of what you see.

#125 Barb on 04.04.20 at 10:08 pm

#40 BillyBob on 04.04.20 at 1:34 pm
—————————
#265 Barb on 04.04.20 at 11:37 am
Our niece is a flight attendant for Emirates air out of Dubai. She can’t get home to Vancouver, stuck in a hotel room, food brought in on order. Limited kitchen facility in her room. Receiving $400/mo from employer.

The reason she didn’t get out before borders were closed is due to a 14-day quarantine following a flight from USA.

Canadian consulate is beyond useless. Family is so worried, knowing Arabs’ penchant for relegating women as second class people. Puts a whole new spin on overseas jobs.

===================================

Hmm. Where to begin?

I worked for Emirates Airline for nearly a decade, lived in Dubai the entire time. I have many friends both flight attendants and pilots, still working there today.

All flight attendants at Emirates are provided company accommodation free of charge, which is an apartment not a hotel. The only time I’ve ever seen anyone being put in a hotel was during a temporary shortage of leased accommodation during a hiring boom, but that was years ago.

All employees are presently on 50% of base salary, so your $400 doesn’t make sense. Even if your niece is absolutely brand new, the starting base salary for the lowest rank of cabin crew (GR 2, (before flight pay and layover allowance) is around $1800 CAD.

Your comment about “Arabs’ penchant for relegating women as second class people” is ignorant in the extreme. The way Arabs – or any ethnicity/culture – treat women varies wildly from country to country and even within countries. In the UAE, women are probably more represented in government positions proportionally than they are in Canada. Do not confuse Dubai with Jeddah or Doha.

You niece will be fine. Emirates has world-class medical services for its staff and no lack of money or resources. She’s safer than most Canadians in Canada.

That’s the true spin on that particular overseas job.

——————————–
Sent your reply to her Mother today. Here is her response (she assumed you were a female flight attendant):

“She is (you are) incorrect. Yes she does and is currently living in free company accommodations in Dubai.
Groceries have to be ordered and delivered while in quarantine. Security is placed in the lobby to ensure you do not leave while strict restrictions are imposed. Delivery of food and other essentials is not free. Food is extremely expensive.

Her salary is based on flying hours. If you do the math the reduction of pay amounts to 75 percent and not as reported on social media as 50 percent.

She (you, BillyBob) may have been a crew member with Emirates previously however things have now changed in Dubai amid Covid19.

Individuals are removed from accommodations and placed in hotel if suspected or high risk for Covid19. Most cabin crew are women and are treated subservient. Hospitals are full.
Stressful for anyone”

#126 NoName on 04.04.20 at 10:13 pm

@ Smoking Man

I am sorry to hear that. My mother battled cancer for yrs, for a while looked that beat it, but slowly cancer metastasized on her brain, had a surgery, she was ok for a while but at the end, that was what got her.

cheers

#127 Terry on 04.04.20 at 10:14 pm

Just go about your life normally. Adapt to and overcome all the hysteria, panic and lies around you. Covid-19 will never go away. It will resurface in the winter’s again and again, with all it’s variants. Right now we are only deferring the full impact while in the process destroying our economies. Again, this was a HUGE mistake! The whole world will get this and yes, sadly, many will die. Accept your mortality everyone. We have become too soft of a society. We live, then something for all of us fails eventually and then we die. Life is a “Now You See It Now You Don’t proposition. Death has always been a part of life…………no one gets out of here alive.

#128 Marco on 04.04.20 at 10:15 pm

Which country is firing on all cylinders while west is paralyzed?
Well, that country will rule you , not the Queen.
Mandarin is not your choice language anymore.
It is a must.

#129 Doug in London on 04.04.20 at 10:16 pm

@Lahdeedah, post #5:
You should only buy them when they are on sale, as energy stocks and ETFs have been until last week.

As for these leveraged ETFs, why not just buy regular equity ETFs when they are on sale, and if they get really cheap buy some on margin?

#130 Drinking on 04.04.20 at 10:24 pm

#118 Nonplused

I was thinking about that the other evening! Have been noticing alot of frustration out there; it is inevitable. Seeing how much of our freedom was taking away from 9/11; bailing out the banks in 2008/2009; always being crushed by the idiotic politicians, banks, corps, but more so the media; they are evil! Hope the clip goes viral again! “I am mad as hell and I am not going to take it anymore”!

Just incase you missed it by Nonplus; here it is again!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRuS3dxKK9U

#131 Looney Baloney on 04.04.20 at 10:30 pm

Wish you had written this a few weeks earlier, Doug. Learnt the hard way that losses are locked in every day, and it doesn’t always go up the same way it went down when the underlying asset recovers. Thankfully it was money I could afford to lose, but it still hurts and wish I had paid closer attention to the mechanics behind these tools. Still great for day trades though, just don’t bet money you can’t afford to lose.

#132 Gary on 04.04.20 at 10:30 pm

The World got a Margin Call, and could not meet it, even with cheap money which is why they got it in the first place.
All Governments are broke, Federal, Provincial, Municipal,
and what will be left of the middle class will have to pay
increased taxes on Everything, especially savings.

#133 cmj on 04.04.20 at 10:51 pm

To Garth, Doug and Ryan,
You are our rudder through this pandemic which influences our financial portfolios. It is obvious that your daily bloggers are coming more frequently to “Greater Fool”. Whatever the messages are from those who respond, we look to a place for accurate information and hope. I think it must be hard for all three of you to deal with this element of fear with your clients and bloggers but realistically, there are few places to go to get daily grounding
Just know many of us appreciate your insights and the energy it takes to respond to our fear.

#134 fishman on 04.04.20 at 11:02 pm

akashic redord. ya, my buddy just went through it, or at least we think so. Couldn’t get in to be tested back then so he just toughed it out. 90% sure he picked it up in a motel in California. He had packed his own food, didn’t stop anywhere to eat & nobody back from where he left came down with it. 28 jours later had sniffles , sneezes. 48 hours could only make 4 hours driving without pulling over. 3rd day made it into Canada & quarantined himself. Next 7 days consistent dry cough & sniffles, very weak & sick, eating a little , pineapple juice was a hit. Next 5 days stopped eating, couldn’t move off bunk. Lots of misery. Tried some Tylenol 3’s. Useless. Didn’t have the chest trouble they talk about. It was his back that was making him immobile. Next seven days could move a little bit more each day. Three weeks now, no coughing, no sniffles, doing a little walking. strength coming back. If it was the flu it was an awful rough variety. He will get tested to see if he’s got the antibodies if the system’s running better. Keep you posted.

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.04.20 at 11:18 pm

Perhaps the ONLY good thing to come out of the Corona Virus debacle…..

Will be new legislation to combat the endless conspiracy theory drivel on the internet….

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-5g/5g-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-is-dangerous-fake-nonsense-uk-says-idUSKBN21M0MS

Perhaps huge $$$$$$ fines and or serious jail time to stop the endless bs that infests the internet?

#136 Keith on 04.04.20 at 11:23 pm

@ #115 akashic record

I have a friend who works in construction. As soon as the epidemic was in the news, he posted on Facebook about how construction sites have inadequate sanitary facilities. I asked about washrooms from the movie/tv business he said none were available.

About a week ago, he was the sixth guy diagnosed on his worksite. He posted yesterday that he is about 75% recovered.

#137 yvr_lurker on 04.05.20 at 12:06 am

#95 Binky

I am hopeful that Canada can become less dependent on China–and to a lesser extent the USA–going forward.
————————

I second that sentiment. We need to be making more stuff locally, and develop our own industries more. Maximum efficiency really arises from maximum globalization. However, as we have seen that comes with significant risk for profilieration of disease, and shortage of critical supplies when the SHTF. Globalization will still be important, but it needs to be looked out critically with a different lens.

#138 YouKnowWho on 04.05.20 at 12:11 am

Faron,

One more thing, there will be variability in the standard Flu season just like with Covid, where in that 61,000 annual flu deaths, you will take 75% of that for the 3 month period and then map out a curve over the 3 months of the flu season, which means there are likely days where the flu takes out 2K, 3K per day. Maybe even peaks at more. Who knows. What is factual is that there is plenty of variability in the models.

#139 NFN_NLN on 04.05.20 at 12:27 am

#120 Terry on 04.04.20 at 9:49 pm
For all those contemplating selling in this investment climate think of investments like it was your house. Do you consider selling your house every time things get rough and real estate loses value? Or do you tough it out and wait for better conditions? Do you appraise your home every year

The rubes I work with… you bet they do. But they only talk about it on years it goes up.

#140 Not So New guy on 04.05.20 at 12:45 am

#75 Sail away on 04.04.20 at 3:59 pm

Maybe for that specific trade, but we have a long and broad base of opportunity staring us in the face right now.

=================================

I definitely agree. I find myself window shopping at the moment. There are so many bargains out there in basic industries. I’m just doing lazy screens right now but there are so many companies trading below book value it is jaw-dropping

I’m wary of oil right now because the producers just have too much control over the price given the supply glut but I think a good area to sniff around is in transportation. That won’t ever go away. They should rebound first as the economy comes back around

#141 K on 04.05.20 at 12:53 am

Hi all . Tough times. It is not about recent financial graphs and statistics. It is about human nature. Basically as humans we are stupid and greedy. So sorry but true. Short sighted and not prepared for any kind of shock . I learned everything I needed to know at 6 years old as a Cub ……Lord Bayden Powell “Be prepared” and at 64 years old………..I am .

#142 Faron on 04.05.20 at 1:14 am

#115 akashic record on 04.04.20 at 9:15 pm

Blog dogs, any of you knows someone personally, who is infected with covid-19?

————

I live in BC where cases are low. My family lives in the US. Sister has one friend with it. He’s in Idaho.

#143 Don Guillermo on 04.05.20 at 1:39 am

#120 Terry on 04.04.20 at 9:49 pm
For all those contemplating selling in this investment climate think of investments like it was your house. Do you consider selling your house every time things get rough and real estate loses value? Or do you tough it out and wait for better conditions? Do you appraise your home every year, or worry about whether or not it’s worth more this month than last? After all, if you’re not selling and you don’t need the money, who cares!
**************************************
Why would you sell your home unless you’re upgrading or desperate? Treating your home as an investment exaggerates problems. That’s supposed to be where you live.

#144 Not So New guy on 04.05.20 at 1:50 am

I wonder if the bank of mom and dad will be getting a bailout?

#145 Paul on 04.05.20 at 3:13 am

115 akashic record on 04.04.20 at 9:15 pm
Blog dogs, any of you knows someone personally, who is infected with covid-19?
————————————————————————————————
I have a big family plus 300 co-workers, the short answer is no. Other than being put out of work!

#146 G on 04.05.20 at 3:15 am

Since we can’t get N95 3M masks from US now, or at least until 3M fill all orders for USA first.
And Canada thought it was ok to just import PPE instead of making stuff at home.

Does anyone know if this practice is happening here in Canada? Or has seen it themselves? see link.

Who STOLE all the masks? 1hr 11min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImmRjT74i-c

Are the PPE N95 masks and test kits, thermometers, that are being shipped over from China now going to be inspected for effectiveness, accuracy and virus contamination before being distributed for use?
I hope so?!
We wouldn’t be the first Country to find issues with products out of china lately, if we did.
I hope the products are good and clean.
But do not assume they are, check, check, check!
If irradiating masks can kill virus if any is found, do so, so we can still use them.
But never forget if it happens!

The CCP Government is not the world’s friend, it now seems to me.
PM T needs to wake up!!! If he hasn’t yet.

It is the CCP Governments virus from Wuhan. The CCP government tried to cover it up at first and we all no how that has working out for the people in china and the world.
And don’t forget about the WHO director contribution to it spreading around the globe. Early on ‘it doesn’t spread between people China told the WHO’, even through Taiwan told WHO it can. No need to stop flying to and from China WHO director said!

Taiwan Battles WHO and China Over Coronavirus 11min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmsqeFAlSGA

#147 Toronto_CA on 04.05.20 at 5:25 am

#105 Faron on 04.04.20 at 7:27 pm

So you’re taking a seasonal flu virus death count and spreading it over a year, and picking the worst individual day.

If the flu killed over a year evenly, that would work. But a flu kills in a few months and dies off (sorry pun) in the warmer weather. So you need to adjust your figures for that.

#148 Wrk.dover on 04.05.20 at 6:53 am

re Mother Earth News, from wiki

In March 1975. in the March–April issue of the Magazine, Issue No. 32, John Shuttleworth said in the second installment of the Plowboy Interview: “For at least 20 years now, I’ve been getting an increasingly uncomfortable suspicion that all the major nations of the world — capitalist and communist — suffer from the narrow delusion that only people, and people alone, have any rights on this planet. Further, that human wants, needs, and desires — seemingly the more capricious the better — should be instantly gratified. And further still, that this can always be done in a strictly economic frame of reference.

“In short, I think that we live in an unbelievably marvelous Garden of Eden. Surrounded by miraculous life forms almost without number. Kept alive by a mysteriously interwoven, self-replenishing support system that, with all our scientific ‘breakthroughs,’ we still do not understand.

“And yet, as favored as we are by all this real wealth, we somehow perversely prefer to spend almost all waking hours interpreting the sum total of this reality in terms of the narrow and distorted, strictly human-centered concept of money.”

#149 BrianY on 04.05.20 at 7:06 am

@111 Don-since the beginning of March approx 282000 people died in the USA-8400 from this virus-3%-obviously much higher in NYC and a couple other hotspots-so the odds of any American having died from this thing so far is 39300 to 1 (Canadian odds about 169000 to 1)-if you are afraid and you want to hide in your basement nobody is trying to stop you-my advice to you is if your health is all that matters to you even if you have to live like a slave then there are lots of more dangerous things for you to fret about in the basement than this thing.

#150 Ricky Bobby on 04.05.20 at 8:09 am

#127 Terry on 04.04.20 at 10:14 pm

” Death has always been a part of life…………no one gets out of here alive.”

According to Ricky Bobby, only 98% of us will die during our lifetimes…

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ricky+bobby+98%25

#151 Harley Tempke on 04.05.20 at 8:39 am

#30 Throwing: I don’t know what you bought and who you think sold out to cash up, but your wrong in both counts.

1) Buy good companies ( Dividend Kings) , companies that have paid dividends for decades, and use the cash flow to buy more stock when they go on sale.

2) Selling is only occuring in the dark corners where retail punters who puke up stock because of margin calls. It hasn’t been smart money running in circles pouring gas on each other heads.

3) the Advisor Class buy bonds, ndependent investors store cash and hold bond proxies (utilities) . It’s a preference, that’s arguable, but Garth means well. Always strip 10% to 20% of every gain and put it aside. When that puke becomes 5% or more of your pile, buy more stock. Cash really is king. That’s why now is a time to buy incrementally, not crystalize losses by selling.

Frankly, you’re what investors refer to as a ‘weak hand’. Not being nasty but, you don’t belong here. You must be swept away before the market finds bedrock. That’s the way it works. Better luck wherever you end up.

#152 akashic record on 04.05.20 at 9:00 am

#115 akashic record on 04.04.20 at 9:15 pm

Blog dogs, any of you knows someone personally, who is infected with covid-19?

——————–

Thanks for all the responses. Wishing the best for everyone who was reported to be sick with this.

I don’t know anyone personally, or even indirectly, I live in Toronto.

It would be interesting if blog dogs would continue to let us know if they know anyone personally, due to the large audience.

#153 Bezengy on 04.05.20 at 9:13 am

@Smoking Man

Can’t think of anyone who has provided me with as many laughs. The #99 of the blog section imo.

#154 Toronto_CA on 04.05.20 at 9:33 am

I think none of us know anyone personally directly because testing isn’t out there generally and so many may have it with no symptoms so will never know they have it. I believe it’s already out there, just because celebrities (who CAN get tested when they rest of us can’t) and people like Sophie Trudeau and Boris Johnson have it – if it was SUPER rare like 83k/1.3bn % in China then a famous person getting it would be like a famous person winning the lottery. Double rare.

But it’s not, because the virus is already out there and the social distancing isn’t going to do much if it’s already widespread.

Guess we’ll find out when the deaths per million don’t spike in places that haven’t done lockdowns. Oh wait, we don’t have much of a control group to check that.

#155 Don Guillermo on 04.05.20 at 9:38 am

#149 BrianY on 04.05.20 at 7:06 am
@111 Don-since the beginning of March approx 282000 people died in the USA-8400 from this virus-3%-obviously much higher in NYC and a couple other hotspots-so the odds of any American having died from this thing so far is 39300 to 1 (Canadian odds about 169000 to 1)-if you are afraid and you want to hide in your basement nobody is trying to stop you-my advice to you is if your health is all that matters to you even if you have to live like a slave then there are lots of more dangerous things for you to fret about in the basement than this thing
***************************************
Not sure why you’re directing this comment at me. You obviously haven’t read any of my posts.

#156 Doug Rowat on 04.05.20 at 9:54 am

#93 not 1st on 04.04.20 at 6:13 pm

Garth/Doug, if there actually is an 12-18 month push on for this to continue or if this is likely to come back again in the fall before a vaccine is ready, you still wouldn’t sell and go to cash?

So if I knew what the future held for this virus and its likely impact on markets what would I do?

I’d get rich.

But I don’t.

–Doug

#157 MF on 04.05.20 at 10:02 am

Faron,

I wouldn’t put too much effort into convincing the “it’s just a flu” group.

The “it’s just a flu” thing is simply a defence mechanism. Sort of like a kid and his nighttime blanket. I’ll be okay I’ve faced worse kind of thing. Can’t blame people for having that coping strategy to be honest, even if they are spreading lies. Canada is actually flattening the curve so it could be giving us a false sense of confidence. We are actually doing pretty well and should realize that.

MF

#158 Kool Aid on 04.05.20 at 10:07 am

All the worlds risk assets are in trouble, the amount of investment grade debt downgraded to high yield is sobering, long term implication for overall portfolio values is evident.

Liquidations will lead to mass insolvencies, it will take many quarters to recover from the Covid economic paralysis.

I feel for the many, watching portfolios burn because of a a disruption out of there control.

Something is not right about this whole pandemic, surreal in nature, an invisible enemy comes and takes your wealth, closes your business, disrupts everything.

Everyone wondered where the reset would come from, into the unknown we wait, a once in a century event. Fortunes will be lost, optimism says fortunes will be made in time, when is the question?

Yes, there is plenty of opportunity to buy income producing assets in the many months ahead, but what?

Time for due diligence, read and understand balance sheets, ask questions about your investments, know why you own what you own, all liabilities are not created equal, good will is over valued.

Best of luck to each and every GF blog dog out there, keep safe, especially those working to assist others in these extraordinary times.

#159 Doug Rowat on 04.05.20 at 10:12 am

#134 cmj on 04.04.20 at 10:51 pm

To Garth, Doug and Ryan,
You are our rudder through this pandemic which influences our financial portfolios. It is obvious that your daily bloggers are coming more frequently to “Greater Fool”. Whatever the messages are from those who respond, we look to a place for accurate information and hope. I think it must be hard for all three of you to deal with this element of fear with your clients and bloggers but realistically, there are few places to go to get daily grounding
Just know many of us appreciate your insights and the energy it takes to respond to our fear.

I think this is our cheer at blog shift-change? Appreciated, thank you.

–Doug

#160 Dharma Bum on 04.05.20 at 10:20 am

Is this crisis becoming a self fulfilling prophecy?

A lot of people just want to be “right” at any cost.

#161 Penny Henny on 04.05.20 at 10:22 am

#152 akashic record on 04.05.20 at 9:00 am
#115 akashic record on 04.04.20 at 9:15 pm

Blog dogs, any of you knows someone personally, who is infected with covid-19?

——————–
brother’s co-worker. Toronto

#162 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 10:26 am

Statistics:

Here we go: akashic record asked which blogdogs knew someone with Covid.

Assuming 50,000 daily blog readers with each reader knowing 30 people equals 1.5 million, or roughly 5% of canada’s population. Further expecting anyone with a juicy positive case would report, that equals 1 positive case in 1.5 million.

There was another positive as ‘friend of sister’ in Idaho and two presumptive cases.

There you are. Math and statistics. The Corvid doesn’t sound so bad now, does it?

#163 BillyBob on 04.05.20 at 10:26 am

#49 MF on 04.04.20 at 2:10 pm
39 BillyBob on 04.04.20 at 1:34

Even during a pandemic you have to bash Canada by claiming utter falsehoods. Gotta ask why?

Do me a favour. Do a quick google. Type in “best places to live in the world”.

See which countries show up.

MF

===================================================

Settle down, MF. I was not comparing the UAE as a whole to Canada.

Emirates Airline has their own massive state of the art clinic staffed by Western-trained clinicians from around the world. My own doctor was German, my dentist American, for example. It is completely free of charge for the use of Emirates Group employees, including any medications. If any specialist treatment is required, that is included as well, by referral to the top medical facilities in Dubai. On par with anything worldwide, as they should be for what they pay.

No, this level of care isn’t available to all expat workers in Dubai, not by a long shot. And there are very poor hospitals, doctors and clinics in Dubai as well. But my comment was to someone worried about their niece, an employee of Emirates.

I said that Emirates Airline’s own medical care is better than that in Canada. And on balance that is true. An Emirates employee will receive better access, faster, to higher quality health care than the average citizen in Canada. I know of what I speak, I’ve been both.

The “best place in the world to live in” is a useless generalization. It’s entirely based on individual circumstances. If you actually experienced living somewhere else, you would learn this quickly.

#164 John in Mtl on 04.05.20 at 10:50 am

#129 Marco on 04.04.20 at 10:15 pm
Mandarin is not your choice language anymore.
It is a must.

O.V.E.R. M.Y. D.E.A.D. B.O.D.Y.
Resistance is NOT futile. I will NOT be assimilated.

#165 Tony on 04.05.20 at 10:50 am

Re: #147 G on 04.05.20 at 3:15 am

The yellow elastics or bands are far too tight for an adult. The masks may fit a 2 or 3 year old but I have one and will not wear it because its too tight.

#166 mike from mtl on 04.05.20 at 10:59 am

#115 akashic record on 04.04.20 at 9:15 pm

Blog dogs, any of you knows someone personally, who is infected with covid-19?
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Nope zero, not even third hand info. Though given current stats the odds are so low.

As an aside, wonder how crime rate is with everyone basically needing an ‘probable cause’ to be outside or driving? I live very close to a fire station, before all this hourly call outs were normal background din. Now there are almost days between fire / paramedic calls.

#167 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.05.20 at 10:59 am

#115 akashic record on 04.04.20 at 9:15 pm

Blog dogs, any of you knows someone personally, who is infected with covid-19?”

++++

Patience.
If the infection rates are as high as they say.
80% will get in in the next 6 months….or they may have already had it and not known it….

That being said.
If the govt actually had the ability to TEST everyone that was sick with flu like symptoms or just test EVERYONE…….in a quick and timely manner….we would have a much better idea of who, where and how it was spreading.

#168 Ustabe on 04.05.20 at 11:04 am

#162 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 10:26 am

Statistics:

Here we go: akashic record asked which blogdogs knew someone with Covid.

Assuming 50,000 daily blog readers with each reader knowing 30 people equals 1.5 million, or roughly 5% of canada’s population. Further expecting anyone with a juicy positive case would report, that equals 1 positive case in 1.5 million.

There was another positive as ‘friend of sister’ in Idaho and two presumptive cases.

There you are. Math and statistics. The Corvid doesn’t sound so bad now, does it?

That is the most illogical posting so far. That you would put any veracity into AR’s “poll” at all and further extrapolate that out to be inclusive of 5% of Canada’s population…just ridiculous.

#169 not 1st on 04.05.20 at 11:06 am

Canada is a sitting duck for these kinds of crisis. Only our remote geography and natural obstacles and sparse population are saving us. We cant make simple masks here and we don’t have any essential industrial production capacity at the ready.

Why on earth are our drugs and medical supplies made in other countries. This is nuts. Now India has banned exports of these drugs. I wonder if the MSM will go after them like the did Trump.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/india-bans-all-exports-of-trumps-game-changer-virus-drug/ar-BB12byNS?ocid=spartanntp

#170 HeadShaker on 04.05.20 at 11:26 am

#168 ” That is the most illogical posting so far. That you would put any veracity into AR’s “poll” at all and further extrapolate that out to be inclusive of 5% of Canada’s population…just ridiculous.”
—————————-

Indeed. Kinda makes you wonder, as is from someone who views himself as intelligent. Everyone has their mental deficiencies apparently, even engineer guest speakers at UBC.

#171 mark on 04.05.20 at 11:31 am

#115 akashic record on 04.04.20 at 9:15 pm

Blog dogs, any of you knows someone personally, who is infected with covid-19?

————

I live in BC where cases are low. My family lives in the US. Sister has one friend with it. He’s in Idaho.

I am in northern bc, small community of about 10,000 people, covid is in our city. Personal friend in quarantine right now. Many not working, city workers shut down, essential service only. Very few ventilators in NORTH bc.

#172 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 11:36 am

#168 Ustabe on 04.05.20 at 11:04 am
#162 Sail Away on 04.05.20

There you are. Math and statistics. The Corvid doesn’t sound so bad now, does it?

—————-

That is the most illogical posting so far. That you would put any veracity into AR’s “poll” at all and further extrapolate that out to be inclusive of 5% of Canada’s population…just ridiculous.

—————-

Exactly. Now apply the same logical skepticism to all other statistics shown for this. Especially predictions.

#173 akashic record on 04.05.20 at 12:16 pm

# Blog dogs, any of you knows someone personally… #

Thanks for all the responses.

Let’s keep the reporting continue. Please also by readers, who don’t normally post.

It is probably too early to draw valid stats, but we can have a better sense within this particular community, which is geographically diverse, yet well defined by the number of unique visitors.

#174 Sail Away on 04.05.20 at 12:21 pm

#170 HeadShaker on 04.05.20 at 11:26 am

#168 ” That is the most illogical posting so far. That you would put any veracity into AR’s “poll” at all and further extrapolate that out to be inclusive of 5% of Canada’s population…just ridiculous.”

—————–

Indeed. Kinda makes you wonder, as is from someone who views himself as intelligent. Everyone has their mental deficiencies apparently, even engineer guest speakers at UBC.

—————–

I never claimed such a view; that was all you.

#175 PHMIKE on 04.05.20 at 12:33 pm

#63 MF on 04.04.20 at 3:02 pm

#22 Don Guillermo on 04.04.20 at 12:47 pm
Global CV-19 update (numbers rounded) April 04th
Cases: 1,150,000
Deaths: 66,000

Typical Global annual flu (numbers rounded)
Cases: 5,000,000
Deaths: 650,000

-So covid already has 1/5 total cases of annual flu in just a month, even though the annual flu has been circulating for thousands of years.

Got it. Thanks Dan.

MF

We are over a quarter into the year it is April right…..? Coronavirus has been tracked back into late November at the very least but probably sooner , I’m not saying that we can be complacent it’s terrible what is happening but it doesnt seem to be much more problematic than the regular flu for most people… For the elderly and those with underlying issues it seems to be a bit worse.. I think the world is listening to much to WHO which is clearly a corrupt organization and needs to stop being funded by western countries if they are going to dance to the PRC drum… If this turns out to be more devastating than we currently have knowledge of I personally think the WHO officials who went to china should rot in jail.

#176 Where's My Charity Money Going Galeneau? To Barbados? on 04.06.20 at 3:30 am

Forgot to mention the Loblaw incident that started this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_price-fixing_in_Canada
“The Competition Bureau of Canada alleged, in court documents released 31 January 2018, that seven Canadian bread companies committed indictable offences[1] in what journalist Michael Enright later termed “the great Canadian bread price-fixing scandal” of 2018.”

Look to the Comp. docs…..