Patience

The fallout continues. More than a hundred thousand Canadians a day are applying for EI. Over 2.1 million so far, or 11% of the entire workforce. In the States 100,000 were expected to lose jobs in March. Over 700,000 did. And last month was but the start. It’s a mess. Turning off the economy to stem a pandemic has no good outcome.

A few more snapshots, then a look forward…

  • Close to 300,000 requests for mortgage deferrals now. Each of the Big Five banks has been getting about ten thousand a day. It’ staggering how many folks bought houses yet survive paycheque-to-paycheque.
  • Airbnb is disintegrating. In downtown Toronto (and Vancouver) scores of condos are hitting the rental market or being listed, even when there are no buyers. Nobody’s booking short-term rentals anymore. Cash flow is gone. It’s estimated as many as 7,500 units in Toronto alone could leave Airbnb and enter the rental pool, pressuring lease rates lower. There are few travelers and those on the road would rather stay in a hotel where management can afford cleaners and buckets of bleach.
  • One towering condo building in DT Toronto now has 110 units on the market. “This,” says a seasoned 416 agent, “has never happened.”
  • Realtors in Vancouver and Toronto just released March numbers. Gangbusters until the 15th, crickets afterwards. “Uncertainty surrounding the outbreak’s impact on the broader economy and the onset of the necessary social distancing measures resulted in the decline in sales since March 15,” says the Toronto board. “Sales figures for April will give us a better sense as to the trajectory of the market.” You bet they will. Wear a helmet.
  • Don’t work in one of those industries or services the politicians have deemed ‘essential’? Then don’t bother applying for a mortgage. You won’t get one.
  • RBC says the housing market across Canada will see a 30% sales drop this year, with lower prices.
  • Have you seen what’s happened to Robson Street? This is Vancouver’s busiest drag, home to moisters and hipsters, once famously hosting a Starbucks every few hundred feet. “Community life that has been killed by high rents, expensive real estate, property taxes and now Corona,” says Joe. Here’s what he means

Well, there’s more, but you get the point. This is why governments have opened the floodgates, thrown out their budgets and are flowing tens of billions into society. Because so many of us are prevented from working, or even going outside, the personal financial consequences are dire. Thus we have an EI overload, the two-grand-a-month emergency benefit, 75% payroll subsidies, industry bailouts, mortgage deferrals and states of emergency across the nation. More to follow.

April’s jobless numbers will surge. So will the virus stats, especially in the US. The meme is growing that Trump miscalculated the pandemic, tried to politicize it, then was trampled by the consequences. It’s possible he’ll go into the November election with the same 10% unemployment rate (or more) that Obama inherited from Bush. Mr. Market is starting to fret about that, but relieved Joe Biden is the opponent, instead of that wild-eyed commie from Vermont.  Sigh.

Politics aside (the virus is also keeping T2’s minority government alive as Tories nix their leadership contest), what should we expect in the months to come? Here are some probables…

  • There’s no way the Bank of Canada will raise rates in 2020 or 2021. Maybe the year after. So a variable-rate loan makes more sense now than it has in some time.
  • Real estate markets in Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and pretty much everywhere outside of Alberta won’t revive until the fall. Yup, six months. The Royal Bank sees a huge 40% surge in home sales in 2021.
  • Airbnb is done. This should mean more rental units hitting the big cities long-term along with falling lease rates. Tenants are in the driver’s seat. Bad time to be a landlord, but April 1st showed you that.
  • Condos are crippled. Added to the collapse of the short-term rental market is the ickiness factor. Memories of this virus will be long and indelible. Lots of people want nothing to do with germy elevators, communal living, common hallways and garbage rooms or exercise areas coated in bodily fluids. Values will fall.
  • A federal deficit exploding from $24 billion to $180 billion is historic. But here we are. It could hit $200 billion if the economy stays turned off until, say, October. This will be the Mother of All Excuses for a suite of tax increases in the next two or three budgets. Start thinking about strategies now. This pathetic blog will have more to say on that in the days to come.
  • Recovery? It’s a given. Only the timing is in question. Normal life may not be normal for a long while, but the pent-up desires will be huge, and take place in an atmosphere of public relief and historically cheap money. Governments at all levels will want you to spend your rear off in order to generate economic activity and sales tax revenue.
  • Your portfolio will revive. Demand was turned off, and will be turned back on. Markets may plumb new lows and fluctuate dramatically, but if your stuff is balanced and diversified, the outcome is known. This is not the prelude to a depression. Turn off BNN. Definitely turn off CNN. Don’t even think about watching CBC. Virus porn.
  • So, simple. You just need to stay alive until September!

In that vein, I now give you free access to all the infectious disease control experts, public health authorities, pandemic modelers and renowned epidemiologists in the comments section. Enjoy.

 

279 comments ↓

#1 Kurt on 04.03.20 at 3:18 pm

I am very annoyed with people questioning the hit the economy is taking from our response to COVID-19, but probably not for the reason you’re thinking of. Economic disruption KILLS. Sometimes quickly, when losing job and home causes a spiral of despair ending with the Black Dog killing us with our own hands. Sometimes a little more slowly, with addiction, reactive violence, inattention and the related morbidity. Sometimes very slowly, as the effect of stress cuts a year or three from our life expectancy. Every dollar of economic activity forgone is 50 cents of tax revenue forgone, which means less to spend on police, roads, education, and yes, health care, all of which have safety implications. Finally, lower socioeconomic status is clearly related to inferior health outcomes, and as far as anyone can tell, the relationship is causal. Often when I hear someone questioning whether our response to COVID-19, I hear some very fortunate, selfish whiner snivelling that the impact of these measures on their portfolio is unfair and unjustified. They often use cowardly spin and reframing to hide their selfishness, but you can tell that it *is* selfishness that motivates them; otherwise, they would just tell the truth: economic disruption kills.

It is much too early to say whether the health impact of countermeasures will be greater than the losses due to the disease; that is to say, we don’t and can’t know whether we have the balance right. But balance should be a concern now, not later, and we should at least *try* to strike a balance. As an example. the Japanese government depopulated an exclusion zone around Fukushima Daiichi. We now know that the mortality due to displacement stress is DOUBLE what the population would have experienced due to radiation effects had they been allowed to remain in their homes. I hope that when all is said and done, we get the balance right.

#2 Vanrentor on 04.03.20 at 3:20 pm

For those of you with cash on the sidelines… what’s your entry strategy?

When an ETF hits a certain price, or when an index hits a level? Maybe Dow 16K

Or when the number of Covid cases starts to flatten?

The million dollar question is when to jump back in.

#3 NoName on 04.03.20 at 3:23 pm

Funny thing how people adapt quickly, from self lubricating armchair macro economics to “infectious disease control experts, public health authorities, pandemic modelers and renowned epidemiologists in the comments section” -GT in a jiffy.

#4 Armpit on 04.03.20 at 3:24 pm

I NEVER….NEVER TRUST GOVERNMENT TO “HELP” PEOPLE – too many abuses and before the money trickles in, too many people got greased in the process of delivering it.

ONLY PEOPLE CAN HELP PEOPLE – START WITH YOUR FAMILY, NEIGHBOURS, COMMUNITY AND MORE.

#5 Hamilton Lisa on 04.03.20 at 3:25 pm

I think it’s time to break up with Airbnb.
Hidden cameras, false advertising, taking rental units off the market…
I went to Montreal earlier this year and had my reservation cancelled TWICE. Extremely annoying and I ended up spending way more than I wanted to…and the place I ended up with didn’t have any parking. The no parking info was there..but in a teeny tiny paragraph on a page you wouldn’t usually look at. ANNOYING. Never again! It cost me as much as a hotel in the end..and I might have had a free breakfast at least!
https://www.nomadicmatt.com/travel-blogs/break-up-with-airbnb/

#6 Classical Liberal Millennial on 04.03.20 at 3:27 pm

In today’s presser, they are saying the pandemic could last 18-24 months. They can’t possibly expect social distancing and shutdowns for that long…can they? And if so, how long before society revolts and simply decides to slowly wake up the economy with or without the government’s approval? After all, they can’t arrest everybody.

#7 JB on 04.03.20 at 3:32 pm

Condos are crippled. Added to the collapse of the short-term rental market is the ickiness factor. Memories of this virus will be long and indelible. Lots of people want nothing to do with germy elevators, communal living, common hallways and garbage rooms or exercise areas coated in bodily fluids. Values will fall.
……………………………………………………………………
CONDOS and CONDO owners are now officially dead. Property value just tanked and will never return. If you own one your toast, if you were buying one then your an idiot. If your renting one then you OK but your next door neighbors could be crackheads now.
Do not want to say I didn’t warn you but actually I did!
BUY A CONDO LOSE YOUR SHIRT

#8 Sail away on 04.03.20 at 3:32 pm

Well, if there’s ever been a time to cutoff all illegal drugs to Canada, this is it.

No flow, no supply. Cold turkey. Sorry junkies, life is hard.

#9 palebird on 04.03.20 at 3:33 pm

And Trudeau still is in hiding. Will not release any useful information on the status of the virus in Canada. What a farce.

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 3:36 pm

BC Ferries passengers are down 80% thus they have just announce the cancellation of ALL sailing from Horsehoe Bay to Nanaimo and the reduction of sailings from Twsawassen to Swartz Bay to 4 per day.
Major layoffs of staff.

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/b-c-ferries-cuts-sailings-on-major-routes-suspends-service-on-others-1.24112289

#11 Question for YVR_Lurker on 04.03.20 at 3:38 pm

#369 yvr_lurker on 04.03.20 at 3:16 pm

With this knowledge, and witnessing the global shutdown with Covid19, are you perfectly happy going forward and resuming the status quo with China and not insisting on any changes on their behavior with regards to live animal markets? Are you happy to resume the 200 flights a day between China and the West when we are given the “all clear” signal? Should we all celebrate when this is over by the G7 group meeting the leaders in China for a special banquet with civet cat and pangolin on the menu? If so, you are a complete utter fool.

_______________________________________

Blah, Blah, Blah,…

As you claimed that the Chinese culture produced Covid -19, my question for you was: did your culture produce HIV?

Based on your online psycho profile, I would presume you preferred to be inflicted by HIV rather than Covid because HIV is your cultural, right?

#12 Frank Scotts on 04.03.20 at 3:39 pm

Garth, I remember before Trudeau Federal Liberals got in, some poster stated a 1 trillion dollar debt in the first 4 years and nobody took that poster seriously. I believe that poster stated that he is a socialist not a Liberal.

I guess that poster was right and even if the corona virus did not happen, this would be done the same 1 trillion deficit just a few years later.

#13 joblo on 04.03.20 at 3:40 pm

Kanada’s new IMF buds Argentina, Venezuela, Italy and Greece.

#14 Fused on 04.03.20 at 3:40 pm

#2 Van Renter
USO, end of March all in and still buying with every dollar I can.

#15 Back to the basics on 04.03.20 at 3:41 pm

Great post
As usual I arrive depressed and then cheered by your positive in the long term and we will survive outlook.
I stopped reading many of the posts you are correct to many virus experts.
Yes I agree turn off the news.
I was going to post today about your future predictions.
For example in my little mind, high deficits, equate to high debt which equates to run away inflation. Then gold should be a good bet?
But it appears no one is worried that far out. They are more focussed on second quarter is a write off and then wait and see how this virus peaks. Before thinking about third quarter and forth quarter.
While you say hold and wait it’s real tough!

I appreciate your somber thoughts
But….. yes I had to go but…..
Okay to recap 1.6 million unemployed and climbing, rents and mortgages being not paid or postponed. Commercial rents are in trouble. Oil is cheaper than beer.
So given all this…

Should it not start to cumulate? I agree not a depression but the cumulative damage could be far reaching?
Are the experts even thinking about this cumulative effect? Or they think poof it will all disappear when we peak and the trillions get spent. Just curious?

Maybe start a fun poll on the next run on consumer goods
So far,
Hand sanitizers
Masks
Toilet paper
Frozen food
Gym equipment
Guns and ammo to a certain aspect as you need a licence.
So what’s our next idiotic run on goods
Anyone want to guess? Makes for a more interesting blog rather than doom and gloom.
Have a great day walk in the woods and breathe

#16 Sold Out on 04.03.20 at 3:42 pm

#365 ted on 04.03.20 at 2:27 pm
#356 JB wrote “………………………………………………………………
That is fine if they cut us off masks.
T2 can call Hydro Quebec and get them to turn off the taps. Even a 1.5% reduction in power would through the US into disarray. He can brush up on his drama teaching when he tells them that he can hear them on the phone they must have a power problem in Washington.”

I think this is a perfect example of a petty Canadian. I like how people like you accuse the USA of being a bully and demand that we try to kill Americans directly on a whim by turning off the lights. Well that wouldn’t happen you clearly don’t understand how the electricity markets work but the point is you believe that if we don’t like something that they do we should try to kill them. What a petty man.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

A government can pursue whatever boneheaded policy it has within its grasp; it doesn’t mean that governments of other countries, or private sector manufacturers, have to get on board.

Denying delivery of PPE could result in deaths as well, probably among medical personnel mostly.

If every country in the developed world took Dim Donnie’s view and refused to help anyone other than their own, America would have to resort to military invasion to secure what they formerly imported with ease.

The notion of American exceptionalism will continue to bite them in the ass, and Americans will have to go back to sewing Canadian flags on their luggage to travel safely, if travel ever returns to normal.

Americans are different than Canadians, yes, but they’re not exceptional; isolationism will kill far more people than turning down the hydro dimmer switch. Their struggling underclass is well armed, thanks to the 2nd Amendment, and will be in no mood for the Mango Mussolini’s antics when they can’t buy their cheap, imported crap.

#17 Leftover on 04.03.20 at 3:46 pm

According to Hemingway, bankruptcy happens, “slowly at first, then all at once”.

Those were the days before private debt of 270% of GDP, now it’s just a Big Bang.

Outcome? Income surtaxes, long term unemployment as many businesses simply won’t reopen and, finally, no more capital gains exemption for principal residences.

Looking forward to Garth’s advice in the coming days.

#18 the Jaguar on 04.03.20 at 3:48 pm

‘Close to 300,000 requests for mortgage deferrals now. Each of the Big Five banks has been getting about ten thousand a day. It’ staggering how many folks bought houses yet survive paycheque-to-paycheque.’

I subscribe to the theory of individual responsibility, but in no way should any of the ‘Big Five banks’ be surprised this debacle has landed on their plate. Obsessed with being compliant on debt service ratios to keep OSFI happy while ignoring credit useage patterns (gobs of consumer debt), looking the other way and taking the path of least resistance on questionable income streams in order to ‘grow their mortgage book’. Ultimately they will fall back on the tired old adage of ” If we didn’t give them the mortgage they would have crossed the street and gotten it at Bank A,B, C, or D”. Maybe so, and maybe a bank isn’t a parent, but one sees the result of the rubber hitting the road. If you put people into things they really cannot afford and have not the financial maturity to handle this is often the result. A flood, a forest fire, job loss, all the occasional fender benders. But what you now have is a severe multiple vehicle collision. Let’s just be honest. The six month payment deferral is as much to save your own ass as it is your customers. If RBC is correct on the 30% correction and the herd chooses to bail instead of staying the course you’ll need more than your usual measure of creativity in your financial statement preparation.
Nice’grafitti’ on the Robson Street photo. Gives the neighbourhood a real ‘ghetto’ overturn. The penalties for that sort of mischief should be severe. Maybe cut off a finger or two. I’m still on my Rodrigo Duterte roll.

#19 Keith on 04.03.20 at 3:49 pm

The solution for the government to keep the accumulators accumulating, is to venture where they haven’t been in a long time – estate taxes. All those juicy baby boomers, who have been able to make gains on real estate, RRSP’s, and other investments. All those people who have pensions and investments and don’t travel anymore, living on a fraction of their income. What you leave behind, the government will step in between you and your heirs, and charge a substantial toll.

#20 Hamilton Lisa on 04.03.20 at 3:54 pm

“And Trudeau still is in hiding. Will not release any useful information on the status of the virus in Canada. What a farce.” – Palebird

Not all of us have a bunch of “Hereditary Chiefs” waiting for us outside. It’s so much nicer to stay INSIDE! How convenient…

#21 conan on 04.03.20 at 3:57 pm

The million dollar question is when to jump back
in.- Vanrentor

For me, it is this:

1) When a region gets over the curve and is on the down side.
2) When Saudi Arabia and Russia are about to cut a deal.
3) Border opens up between Canada and USA.
4)Currency valuations look attractive, meaning, I think I can make money on the trade, and on the currency.

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 3:57 pm

@#10 Question PRC Authority

Stop eating bats.

#23 Linda on 04.03.20 at 4:01 pm

Not surprised by AirBnb downturn. If people are not traveling, obviously any travel based accommodation including hotels/motels will see their occupancy fall off a cliff. On the plus side, if owners are now putting their units on the market for long term rent or sale, all those who were complaining that AirBnb was keeping rents artificially high can now benefit. Except – oops – most of those who couldn’t find affordable living before the virus are likely laid off & having no reserves are awaiting government relief in the form of EI or CERB. Or moving back in with the parents, always assuming the parents will let their potentially germ laden offspring through the door.

So let’s see – housing is likely to become more affordable, bank rates to remain at historic lows, overcrowded tourist destinations are empty, pollution has been temporarily reduced, government workers are being laid off in droves (at the municipal & provincial levels, anyway). For those who live under flight paths or next to busy roadways or train tracks the sound of silence fills the air. Happy now?

#24 CORONSPIRACY on 04.03.20 at 4:02 pm

“If Sweden, which has not locked down its economy and society, emerges with a death toll from COVID-19 that is somewhere in the middle of the pack of European countries, there is going to be a lot of recrimination, particularly against those who have tried to silence any discussion about the true extent of the threat that COVID-19 actually poses”

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/7649/prepare_for_the_mother_of_all_s_t_storms_if_sweden_pulls_this_off

#25 KB on 04.03.20 at 4:03 pm

Why do I think people that were sensible in buying an affordable home, stashed away 3 months of expenses in a savings account and tried to maximize their RRSP and TFSA contributions every year will be the ones to pay for these bailouts?

#26 Jesse Livermore on 04.03.20 at 4:06 pm

#354 Not So New guy on 04.03.20 at 1:31 pm

“Frustration is when you realize that had you made your trades in a slightly different way, but equally safe, you would have made $30k last month.”

Nothing like hindsight being 20/20 huh?

#27 YouKnowWho on 04.03.20 at 4:08 pm

I just realized – no haircuts to be had!

Thanks Covid-19 for bringing back the 80s hair!

I’m going for the Don Johnson myself. You?

…who’s cutting Justin’a hair during this Social Distancing? He looks freshly cut!

#28 renter in Surrey on 04.03.20 at 4:13 pm

It were not local incomes that drove RE prices to the moon, so losses of local incomes will not drive RE prices down neither

https://www.utpjournals.press/doi/full/10.3138/cpp.2019-009

#29 Pete Pandemic on 04.03.20 at 4:14 pm

#309 JB on 04.03.20 at 9:37 am
#280 Jane24 on 04.03.20 at 1:45 am

“This is the 4th killer virus to come out of China in my lifetime and sadly it won’t be the last.”

This gives new meaning to the phrase Made in China…

#30 Jager on 04.03.20 at 4:16 pm

#3 NoName on 04.03.20 at 3:23 pm

So why are you (still) reading and posting in the comments? If the comment section disturbs you wouldn’t it suffice to read Garth’s blog post and then move along?

Don’t you believe that most people are intelligent enough to self censor?

Let the people have their say. A thin veneer of free speech appears still to exist, which at times, Garth does censor.

#31 Sean on 04.03.20 at 4:16 pm

Re: Sweden. Expect the relative freedom to change soon.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/04/04/why-swedes-are-not-yet-locked-down

#32 JP on 04.03.20 at 4:19 pm

I am expecting hear a lot more references to “pay their ‘fair share’” in future political cycles.

Might be worthwhile building a drinking game around it …

#33 Grunt on 04.03.20 at 4:20 pm

Garth if you don’t already have one you might want to pickup one of those electric hair cutting/grooming device for home use.

#34 Coho on 04.03.20 at 4:20 pm

DELETED

#35 Trump is a Chump on 04.03.20 at 4:26 pm

#291 Fred Baxter on 04.03.20 at 7:01 am
#244
Truthseeker 2 on 04.02.20 at 10:38 pm
Highly respected Martin Armstrong declares his sources say this virus is a pandemic story is a left wing G7 coup versus Trump:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/un-want-global-power-to-tax-10-for-the-coronavirus/

Makes some sense when one looks at the election prospects of the split USA Democrats as the next election approaches and the state of EU.

———
“Martin Arthur Armstrong is an American self-taught economic forecaster who uses his own computer model based on pi. He spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million and hiding $15 million in assets from regulator.”

That makes Martie an excellent Republican! can’t get better credentials than that!

#36 Peter Courtney on 04.03.20 at 4:29 pm

So Garth, I totally agree the covid 19 will end. The big question is how do we protect what’s left from the tax Nazis.

#37 Phylis on 04.03.20 at 4:30 pm

#17 the Jaguar on 04.03.20 at 3:48 pm

Nice’grafitti’ on the Robson Street photo. Gives the neighbourhood a real ‘ghetto’ overturn. The penalties for that sort of mischief should be severe. Maybe cut off a finger or two. I’m still on my Rodrigo Duterte roll.

If you notice in the photo, the white mini wheeled trailer with the pylons surrounding it, is a multi camera portable security camera system. They have a tendency to show up in crime infested areas. So ya, its real now.

#38 Honest Realtor on 04.03.20 at 4:30 pm

So let’s get this right, Mr. Turner. You want to totally downplay the effect of this coronavirus when it suits you, but because you hate real estate, you assume it will be bad just for that sector.

Hmm. Now a reality check.

The real estate market will quietly pause and then roar back. Condos are a fact of life for millions, and are actually safer and cleaner than you think. SFD’s are much more ‘dirty’ and have higher health risk exposures.

As some global locations suffer more and people are crowded and unhappy there, they will want to come to Canada. And demographically, and to help with the debt from this episode, Canada will increase immigration, putting even more pressure on housing in bigger cities.

All in all, a short pause and possible downturn in RE will merely be an amazing buying opportunity. If things don’t do down, buy anyway, because for sure prices will be much higher in 1 and 2 years than today.

You can’t beat basic demographics and economics.

Your points might have been worth reading with the ad hominem crap. If you hate me, why come here? – Garth

#39 Printing Press Perry on 04.03.20 at 4:32 pm

#4 E on 04.02.20 at 12:53 pm

“Garth, you’re one of the nation’s most loyal sons, having served most of your life. How would you, an economist and patriot, propose to deal with the crushing debt?”

The printing press has been around since Gutenberg invented it in the 1400s. You can be euphemistic and call it quantitative easing if you like but given Gutenberg credit and just roll the printing presses…

#40 Death on 04.03.20 at 4:34 pm

lots of predictions garth….on what is unpredictable, this is after all a grand scam, so unless you are an insider you dont know where this is headed.
safe prediction-> less freedoms and wealth destruction for the masses.

#41 Lisa on 04.03.20 at 4:34 pm

I was willing to do this social distancing stuff for a few weeks, but at this point there is no end in sight. At some point, which I believe is coming soon, the effects on our psychological health will be worse than the deaths from this virus. I hate living like this. My family is doing better than most but the tension is still palpable. Are we under the illusion that we can control everything? At what cost? I do not assent to living in a police state!

#42 The real Kip (Ret) on 04.03.20 at 4:34 pm

Well hey, on the plus side, Canada will easily make our climate change commitments as per The Paris Accord.

Winning!

#43 Jesse Livermore on 04.03.20 at 4:35 pm

#23 AntMan on 04.02.20 at 1:40 pm

“Mr Turner: Would you care to speculate on what this may mean for capital gains and dividends outside of registered accounts?”

Quite the optimist aren’t you? I believe you meant to say capital losses….

#44 mountain guy on 04.03.20 at 4:37 pm

A modest proposal
In order to simplify an over-complex process for supplementary income during this lock-down, without missing any of those in dire need:
1: provide $1,500/month to ALL Canadian adults (plus $?? per child). No bureaucracy, just deposit the money in their bank account on file with CRA, (cheques to those who can demonstrate they don’t have bank account on file.) Every month until this is over. i.e. temporary universal basic income. Those who don’t need it can donate it if they so choose.
2: reduce the Basic Deduction for 2020 & 2021 by $1,500 X number of months of UBI in 2020. It’ll be taxable at each individual’s top marginal rate. May be needed for 2022 as well to pay it all back. Better this than added to the near infinite national long-term debt. No whining – everybody gets the money. And we pay it back promptly as if it were a short term loan. No new systems, no new bureaucracy, just one simple change to the existing CRA individual tax form.
NOTE: this does not in any way obviate the need for the assistance essential for survival of small businesses.

#45 Incubus on 04.03.20 at 4:39 pm

@ #23 CORONSPIRACY on 04.03.20 at 4:02 pm

Sweden is right, the shut down is totally absurd and will do more harm than good.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/03/31/economies-wont-be-able-to-recover-after-shutdowns/

#46 When’s My EI Coming? on 04.03.20 at 4:40 pm

I applied for EI but since then crickets? Nothing in the mail, no access code, zip. Anyone one else not loaded waiting to hear back about their claim?

And no, I’m not a dead beat, I’ve lost my job due to covid. And No I’m also not part of the DONT pay your rent crew either. Got no bailout from my employer just a see ya later, call a help line if your depressed.

I’m just a hard working person, who can’t swing it for 12 to 18 months without work. No credit card debt, small savings but scared, so go easy on people like me.

#47 Faron on 04.03.20 at 4:41 pm

“In that vein, I now give you free access to all the infectious disease control experts, public health authorities, pandemic modelers and renowned epidemiologists in the comments section. Enjoy.”

Ha, that’s great, and thank you for another great post today Garth. I’m a real-estate doomer, so I like hearing my thoughts in the echo chamber :-).

Serious question: do you take real estate reports from banks that have a massive portion of their business in mortages with a grain of salt? 30% sounds like a reasonable drop, but who are the keeping the 70% alive? These are the banks that have pumping mortgage sales hard in recent years with no mention of fast-rising housing cost to income ratios. What do the independent analysts say? Or will you just run into the same problems of self-interest in their reporting?

I’m going to try hard to refrain from wading into the coronavirus crud for a while. Deeps breaths, count to ten. I can do it.

#48 J on 04.03.20 at 4:41 pm

I thought I’d provide an update of what I’m seeing “on the ground”. I own some commercial RE and here is what my tenants are experiencing. It’s an informal view of the current economic situation, but some may find it interesting.

Automotive. The detailing shop has slowed down, but he has a contract with the police so hopefully he’ll be able to scrape by. Ditto for the graphics and signs shop who has a few contracts with solid customers. The windshield shop is only open about 3 hours a day but he is keeping busy enough to be ok for now. The mechanic shop seems to be slower but still ok for now. A specialized auto service shop has been closed for over a week – she is very scared of the virus and has chosen to self-isolate (I don’t blame her).

Vape products. He’s as busy as ever and is even looking to expand.

Beauty Salon. They were mandated to close shop a couple weeks ago. I feel bad for them. One of the owners is a single mom. They will get hit harder than most from this.

Doctors. The family docs are very busy, obviously. The eye doc has slowed down and only does emergencies.

Provincial Services. One is swamped dealing with covid-19 related stuff. The other is a community-outreach facility and they have to modify how they operate for now.

Liquor Store. They are very busy. No surprises here.

Disaster Recovery and Restoration. He is bursting at the seams with all his usual work and now covid-19 related work.

Farmers. Nothing has changed. They have been preparing for the season. Farmers are awesome.

#49 Trojan House on 04.03.20 at 4:42 pm

#6 Classical Liberal Millennial on 04.03.20 at 3:27 pm

Very good question. I heard it could be endemic so we may to have deal with it on an seasonal basis. But I think you’re right, there is no way anybody will self-isolate, social distance and remained closed for that long. I think people will revolt and they will try to arrest everyone but that’s when the SHTF.

#50 mountain guy on 04.03.20 at 4:46 pm

#1 Kurt – thank you! The stress of poverty kills, directly and indirectly.

Thank you Garth for your level headed posts throughout this crisis, and for your wisdom and advice over the years

#51 Ahhh ... Robson Street ... on 04.03.20 at 4:46 pm

where one corner had 4 coffee joints all facing each other and two of them (kittycorner) were both Starbucks. But what a place to sit and people watch. Remember watching all the “beautiful people” walking by while another unlucky fellow was going through the bins picking out discarded cigarette butts and lighting them up. Even the actual Robsenstrasse hotel was just demolished and Hoy’s is no more. Hoy’s had lot’s of tables and was a great place to get a large plateful of good Chinese food for cheap along with a bottle of Tsingtao beer for $2.99. Saw the writing on the wall when a “chic” noodle house opened up right next door with very few tables and the lineup stretched down the block. And this was just a few months ago … RIP.

#52 MicroGX on 04.03.20 at 4:48 pm

n that vein, I now give you free access to all the infectious disease control experts, public health authorities, pandemic modelers and renowned epidemiologists in the comments section. Enjoy.
———-
Haha , had a good laugh at that!! Thanks for another solid informative post.

#53 BS on 04.03.20 at 4:48 pm

#7 Sail away on 04.03.20 at 3:32 pm

Well, if there’s ever been a time to cutoff all illegal drugs to Canada, this is it.

No flow, no supply. Cold turkey. Sorry junkies, life is hard.

I guess you forgot who runs this city, province and country. Instead of getting people off drugs they are now supplying them.

Vancouver’s mayor has urgently asked Ottawa for a legal exemption, saying users’ need to source drugs makes social-distancing impossible for them

B.C. drug users will be given access to a safe supply of drugs to encourage self-isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic. New prescribing guidelines allow health professionals to supply people with a history of substance use and a confirmed or suspected case of COVID-19 with the drugs they need to stave off withdrawal symptoms.

https://www.macleans.ca/society/health/a-safe-supply-for-drug-users-may-be-the-only-way-to-head-off-an-even-greater-coronavirus-tragedy/

#54 Wait There on 04.03.20 at 4:50 pm

OK, all these programs will come from the other 60% who pay net taxes.

Add to this what happens if CMHC needs help with the insurance programs. The banks are OK, they’re backed up by CMHC…….if they haven’t offloaded those mortgages as yet to the central bank.

#55 Leo on 04.03.20 at 4:53 pm

#5 Hamilton Lisa

I love his site & Book. …Found out about him from the Quit like a Millionaire book. :)

#56 Alberta Boy on 04.03.20 at 4:53 pm

The science is settled. 97% of scientists and 100% of fine arts majors know that Covid-19 is worth destroying our economy for. All of the deniers out there need to wake up and realize that they are either with us or they are with the carbon dioxide… I mean coronavirus.

Hopefully the government will act quickly and close down any denier websites that share misinformation. Our very lives depend on it.

#57 Jay on 04.03.20 at 4:53 pm

Governments keep running deficit and going into debt like its no big deal and always seem to have an infinite amount they can “borrow”, and only seem to care about debt to GDP ratio. Every government, everywhere is doing this it seems.

However a certain percentage of the budget must go to interest payments. How does this work? Who is receiving the money paid through interest? who is the debt owed to exactly?

If the answer to all of these questions starts or ends with “China”, we are in serious trouble.

#58 #21 Fartz on 04.03.20 at 4:57 pm

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 3:57 pm

@#10 Question PRC Authority
Stop eating bats.
_____________________________

Fartz, stop playing with monkey, Less HIV.

#59 Ztn on 04.03.20 at 4:59 pm

“Real estate markets in Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and pretty much everywhere outside of Alberta won’t revive until the fall” Is that mean Alberta will not revive till 202…? Definitely the oil industry is in a hole.

#60 Marco on 04.03.20 at 5:03 pm

Well, how about start eating bats and other Chinese delicacies to strengthen our immunity.
Because they will hit us again and again….

#61 John Galt on 04.03.20 at 5:04 pm

I will stop the motor of the world

#62 Kilt on 04.03.20 at 5:04 pm

Actually those mortgage deferral requests have nearly topped 500,000 or 10% of all Mortgages in Canada.

https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/canadas-big-banks-field-half-a-million-mortgage-deferral-requests

#14 Back to the basics

You missed alcohol in that list.
And baking products – (yeast, flour, baking powder).

It is like everyone is going to sit in their house, watch netflix and get fat. Another future economic cost.

Kilt.

#63 Deplorable Dude on 04.03.20 at 5:10 pm

….”The duration of containment efforts does not matter”

Are we merely kicking the can down the road and making things worse by suppressing herd immunity.

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

Better hope those TrumpPills work.

#64 CEW9 on 04.03.20 at 5:10 pm

#2 Vanrentor on 04.03.20 at 3:20 pm

For those of you with cash on the sidelines… what’s your entry strategy?

When an ETF hits a certain price, or when an index hits a level? Maybe Dow 16K

Or when the number of Covid cases starts to flatten?

The million dollar question is when to jump back in.

___________________________________________

If you want a strategy, split your cash into equal segments and dollar cost average. Or spend each segment on boosting relatively poor performers in your portfolio to bring them up to proper balanced percentage. Set a time segment – monthly, bi-weekly, bi-monthly, or whatever for your purchases. Do not get caught into going all in at any one point in time. Averaging reduces risk.

Never try to ‘jump in’. Timing the market is impossible. Haven’t you learned that yet? If not, you soon will.

Over the last few years dollar-cost averaging has consistently resulted in buying less with the same money. Fail. – Garth

#65 Nothing Surprises on 04.03.20 at 5:12 pm

I’m curious.

Turn off CNN. Are you thinking the alternative to watch is Fox News?

#66 Richmond will be under water by 2014 on 04.03.20 at 5:14 pm

My yard stick is airlines.
When do the planes fly again?
When is the first flight to Milan, or London etc?
When are hundreds of thousands of humans throwing thousands of dollars at airlines in order to be shoe horned into an aluminum tube in order to fly to some far off place in order to spend tons of cash on a vacation?
When that is happening the economy will be well along the way to recovery.
Me thinks that’s a long way away.
2021? Maybe. Maybe late 2021. More like 2022 really.
Along the way anything could happen. The risk of complete and total world collapse has never been higher. It’s certainly higher now than during WWII.
I said it befor and I’ll say it again this crisis is bigger than WWII in basically every measurable metric except deaths. If things go well that will stay the same. If things go bad I could definitely see more deaths then WWII over the next 6 years (the war lasted 6 years).
That is the gravity of the situation. It’s that serious. We are just beginning to see things start to break down at the street level. Looting, property crime is spiking. Courts are closed and prison inmates are beginning to be released.
Take a close look at that photo of downtown Vancouver. What is that white thing on the sidewalk? It has the VPD crest on it. The Police have deployed a remotely operated surveillance camera unit right there on the sidewalk.
Fire deptartments across the LM have been ordered to only respond to life critical calls and they made the point of specifying overdoses do not qualify as critical. So watch out for the dead bodies if you go to the grocery store (depending on your neighborhood obviously).
What’s it going to be like in 6 more weeks of this? What’s skid row in LA going to be like in 6 more weeks? Baltimore? Chicago?
And then 6 weeks after that?
Can we really print all this money and have no ill effects? If you thought the cost of living was too high befor the pandemic just wait until after. If there is an after.
Our dollar will have to be slaughtered. Our taxes will have to go through the roof. All of which will stifle the economy as we go forward.
In Canada and especially my hood I do feel we have a good position on this thing. I think stuff will start opening up in June and we will be able to see friends and family and go to a restaurant and play golf and go to the lake etc. But the border won’t be open and the planes won’t be flying. Not for a long time.
Might be best to build a wall. A big beautiful wall. There might be American refugees pouring across the border befor fall if America doesn’t hold it together.
Look at New York. They are going to be shutdown right through the summer. That’s going to work fine? No rioting? No looting? Americans just sitting there. That’s just one state. What about all the others?

Just a hunch, but you might have eaten way too many Storm Chips while in isolation. – Garth

#67 Just anybody on 04.03.20 at 5:16 pm

“Real estate markets in Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and pretty much everywhere outside of Alberta won’t revive until the fall. Yup, six months. The Royal Bank sees a huge 40% surge in home sales in 2021.“
—————

And we know what that will do for prices .

Buy when you wish but don’t wait to long

#68 Sail away on 04.03.20 at 5:17 pm

#7 Sail away on 04.03.20 at 3:32 pm

Well, if there’s ever been a time to cutoff all illegal drugs to Canada, this is it.

No flow, no supply. Cold turkey. Sorry junkies, life is hard.

————–

#51 BS on 04.03.20 at 4:48 pm

I guess you forgot who runs this city, province and country. Instead of getting people off drugs they are now supplying them.

B.C. drug users will be given access to a safe supply of drugs to encourage self-isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

————–

I have no words

#69 oh bouy on 04.03.20 at 5:19 pm

“This is not the prelude to a depression. Turn off BNN. Definitely turn off CNN. Don’t even think about watching CBC. Virus porn.”

_________________________________

Just turn off all media in general.
hair-on-fire journalism is rampant.
virus porn indeed.

#70 Linda on 04.03.20 at 5:19 pm

What I’m wondering is whether the overall shutdown due to Covid-19 has allowed Canada to achieve its promised CO2 emission targets. Seriously. Because if it can be proven that this current situation has allowed that target to be met, that gives us a base line of what we’d have to do to achieve that goal long term. If this is what ‘giving a little’ looks like, I’d say we are going to have to find viable alternatives PDQ.

#71 Handsome Ned on 04.03.20 at 5:22 pm

I think the end result is we become Cuba without the nice weather and hot women. We will not have to worry about real estate as everyone will get “free” housing. All those 2 bedroom condos are perfect for 3 families. We are already used to lineups, shortages and travel restrictions. We will pretend to work and the government will pretend to pay us. Unfortunately modern cars can not be haywired by backyard mechanics like 57 chevs.

#72 Just anybody on 04.03.20 at 5:22 pm

#37 Honest Realtor.

Unfortunately for a guy like me who has been bearish on RE for years, this synopsis really does seem the most plausible and likely.

I think the best thing I can do for myself is get off my deeply entrenched negative opinion of GTA RE and realize that the tailwinds first the sector are unstoppable.

#73 Sail away on 04.03.20 at 5:23 pm

#55 Alberta Boy on 04.03.20 at 4:53 pm

The science is settled. 97% of scientists and 100% of fine arts majors know that Covid-19 is worth destroying our economy for.

—————–

Hahaha

#74 D.D. Corkum on 04.03.20 at 5:24 pm

#23 CORONSPIRACY on 04.03.20 at 4:02 pm

“If Sweden,…”

—-

The article you linked failed to do basic research into possible alternate explanations.

Sweden has much lower population density, slightly lower median age, and slightly higher life expectancy at birth than the rest of the European Union.

#75 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 5:24 pm

haha Vancouver. Will riot if the Canucks lose the cup but will gladly lock themselves away and board up the city for a virus.

#76 Paul on 04.03.20 at 5:24 pm

Stay alive,a little dramatic.lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpWWCTVbFfM

#77 Landlord Larry on 04.03.20 at 5:25 pm

“Tenants are in the driver’s seat. Bad time to be a landlord, but April 1st showed you that.”

Actually April 1st came and went with no problems from my tenants. For years I have charged them under market rates and serviced the hell out of them. I got on any problem immediately and they all appreciated that. We are actually friends. I have had some tenants who were with me for 40 years. I subsidized an old lady who lived to be over 100 and I didn’t raise her rent for the last 25 years of her life. The greedy landlords, and I know many, who always wanted maximum market rates, who got rid of tenants to put in new ones at maximum rates are now learning something the Buddhists call karma…

#78 Paul on 04.03.20 at 5:27 pm

Has anyone seen the latest data TRREB is pumping out. Almost trying to make it sound as if the RE market is doing well.

#79 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 5:27 pm

What are the taxed coming that as in your words will make your toes curl? Capital gains?? What else is there to go after?

#80 JG Cali on 04.03.20 at 5:28 pm

Over the last few years dollar-cost averaging has consistently resulted in buying less with the same money. Fail. – Garth

How can that be true? Isn’t buying whenever you have the money basically the same as DCA but every couple of months instead of every week? You’re still buying in. Genuinely confused.

#81 Flanneur on 04.03.20 at 5:28 pm

I was ok staying inside other than for walks/exercise, but now LEASHES in the parks, the world is closing in.

#82 crazyfox on 04.03.20 at 5:30 pm

#23 CORONSPIRACY on 04.03.20 at 4:02 pm

I doubt that Sweden can. Sweden is a week behind and will have to make hard choices soon.

If there is a European exception to lockdowns, it would be Germany. Germany has, for example, 4x the ICU capacity of Italy and is testing 100,000+ a day now. The way to keep economies open is through test and trace.

The use of masks, temp guns and GPS cel tracking apps of infected in conjunction with 14 day self quarantines for mildly infected all contribute strongly toward a nation opening up it’s economy but test and trace is the most important part of it. We’ll get there.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 5:30 pm

@#57 Question PRC Authority
“Fartz, stop playing with monkey, Less HIV.”

++++

Hmmm, I guess that means they dont just EAT monkeys in China….

https://www.avert.org/professionals/hiv-around-world/asia-pacific/china

#84 Ronaldo on 04.03.20 at 5:30 pm

#2 Vanrentor on 04.03.20 at 3:20 pm
For those of you with cash on the sidelines… what’s your entry strategy?

When an ETF hits a certain price, or when an index hits a level? Maybe Dow 16K

Or when the number of Covid cases starts to flatten?

The million dollar question is when to jump back in.
—————————————————————
XEG which was a dog of an etf went from $23.04 to $2.85 and I bought at that price figuring there wasn’t much downside left. It closed today at $4.08.

There are many other good companies in the resource sector that have been decimated. It really is bargain hunting time. If you have the patience to wait for them to come back, you will be well rewarded.

#85 Printing Press Perry on 04.03.20 at 5:32 pm

#28 not 1st on 04.02.20 at 1:49 pm

“Canadas federal debt is now approaching 1T and another 1T in provincial debt, 2.2T in consumer debt, probably an equivalent number in mortgages.

There is no way out of this but default.”

You think Canada is alone with its debt? You don’t have to default on debt denominated in your own currency when you have a printing press. Sorry, when you can do quantitative easing…

#86 NoName on 04.03.20 at 5:34 pm

#29 Jager on 04.03.20 at 4:16 pm
#3 NoName on 04.03.20 at 3:23 pm

So why are you (still) reading and posting in the comments? If the comment section disturbs you wouldn’t it suffice to read Garth’s blog post and then move along?

Don’t you believe that most people are intelligent enough to self censor?

Let the people have their say. A thin veneer of free speech appears still to exist, which at times, Garth does censor.

Nothing deesturbs me in comment section, that was supposed to be funny, rule of the thumb is that very few laugh on my jokes…

And as for self censoring and intelligence, that works best under totalitarian regimes, we are not there yet…

#87 Marco on 04.03.20 at 5:34 pm

And stop to compare this to WWII. With attitude like that you will never defeat Isis…
Your parents and grandparents run from red army and find shelter here. It was worse than virus…

#88 Cecil the Centenarian on 04.03.20 at 5:36 pm

#33 YouKnowWho on 04.02.20 at 2:06 pm

“DYK – 98% of people will die in their life. The darkness is creeping toward you if you know it or not.”

Not for the 2% who will not die in their life…

#89 Felon Musk on 04.03.20 at 5:39 pm

#69 Stone on 04.02.20 at 3:48 pm

“Goodbye zombie companies. Hopefully, whoever picks up your assets in the soon to come firesales will deploy them in a more efficient manner and have some foresight to retain some dry powder for emergencies like this on.”

You really don’t understand the game Stone. These zombie companies will continue to be propped up by capital markets. You think Tesla is going to disappear any time soon?

#90 Interstellar Old Yeller on 04.03.20 at 5:39 pm

Happy Friday, Garth. I appreciate your repeated calls for calm. Looking forward to your tax strategies for the future.

#91 wallflower on 04.03.20 at 5:44 pm

spent about 6 hours in emerg waiting area yesterday – this was after learning my own doctor is not appearing for some time (maybe next week?) and walk-in clinics aren’t – except for the one I went to where I called from my cell (what do people do who do not have cell phones? or is this the reason why emergency departments are typically overwhelmed?) to learn that if I left my number, a doctor would call at some time in the future for a telephone-only appointment.
We have a pandemic and our entire system shuts down. Same union as Service Canada?
But it sure was quiet at emerg.
Likely I bathed in multiple COVIDey type lotions …. ai.

Choices are stark.

This blog is experiencing pandemic level comment numbers these days.
I have always enjoyed the comments section.
Pls keep it open as a choice for us! Thank you!

#92 AK on 04.03.20 at 5:48 pm

“Airbnb is disintegrating.”
=====================================

Good riddance. They were supposed to issue an IPO this year.

#93 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 5:49 pm

Garth, you need to put out a post showing our real debt;

– federal
– provincial
– municipal
– mortgages & helocs
– student loans
– autos and toys
– consumer
– corporate
– CPP (yes your CPP is in debt, bet you didn’t know that)

I estimate that number to be more than $6-8T.

Canada is technically insolvent. Our real debt to GDP is 300%. And there is no place left to tax to get to this and Trudeau has refused to try and grow the economy.

I predict Canada cracks and the US picks up the pieces. I predict Trudeau becomes the historical poster boy for the break up. He will be in the history books.

#94 Boomnust on 04.03.20 at 5:50 pm

The only reason the Greater Vancouver RE market was going “swimmingly” until mid-March is because home prices continued to drop. And, that’s all there is to it.

#95 AK on 04.03.20 at 5:51 pm

“Recovery? It’s a given. Only the timing is in question. ”

====================================

Based on the behaviour of the VIX over the past couple of days, It may be sooner rather than later.

#96 Shawn Allen on 04.03.20 at 5:52 pm

What new taxes will come?

#78 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 5:27 pm
What are the taxed coming that as in your words will make your toes curl? Capital gains?? What else is there to go after?

*******************************
Watch for corporate taxes to rise when this is done. Hopefully the competitive race to the bottom on corporate taxes is over.

Businesses whined incessantly about taxes (even as their tax rates truly plummeted for years) and now almost all of them are reaching out to grab money from the government. Profitable corporations can and will pay more taxes. If no profit, then no worry about higher corporate tax rates.

#97 Ronaldo on 04.03.20 at 5:54 pm

#14 Back To Basics

So what’s our next idiotic run on goods
Anyone want to guess? Makes for a more interesting blog rather than doom and gloom.
Have a great day walk in the woods and breathe

——————————————————————

With all the bank branches shutting down across the country I would expect that maybe the next run would be for CASH. Comes in handy if the power goes out or the ATMs run out.

Also, keep your tank fueled up in case you need to make a quick getaway to your favorite isolated spot.

There has already been a run for AG and AU as most dealers have none to sell and mines are shutting down. Nasty little virus it is.

#98 I’m stupid on 04.03.20 at 5:54 pm

My mom works at Sunnybrook hospital. I haven’t seen her in 3 weeks, her boss is in quarantine, her bosses boss is in quarantine along with many others. I spoke with her today and she told me that she’s given 2 masks and they must last her entire shift. All is not well.

I’m in the construction industry and I’m pissed off. How can it be expected at 200-300 guys working together on site is ok but if the same guys are in a park together they get fined?

Thirdly, I just found out my cousin in Italy tested positive for COVID-19. She just finished kemo for breast cancer. Now it’s a waiting game to see how bad it gets.

#99 Retro Marxist on 04.03.20 at 5:57 pm

Airbnb is disintegrating.
———————————————————–

Good riddance! They don’t incur taxes and expenses like real hotels do and they take away rental properties from the locals.

#100 NewWest on 04.03.20 at 6:03 pm

#50 Ahhh … Robson Street … on 04.03.20 at 4:46 pm

Even the actual Robsenstrasse hotel was just demolished and Hoy’s is no more. Hoy’s had lot’s of tables and was a great place to get a large plateful of good Chinese food for cheap along with a bottle of Tsingtao beer for $2.99.

—————————————–

Hon’s. It was Hon’s Wun-tun House. Great place for a quick, solid meal with all the green tea you could drink, and leftovers for lunch the next day. I’m guessing the owners sold out for condo development, like has happened with everything else down Robson now.

The original was at Main and Broadway back in the day. Best thing for a hangover after a night at the Admiral was noodles with Hon’s chili oil liberally applied…..

There’s a branch in New Westminster on 6th Street that carries on the tradition.

#101 You are so funny! on 04.03.20 at 6:05 pm

“So, simple. You just need to stay alive until September!”

Everyone around me was wondering why I couldn’t stop laughing. That was an awesome punchline!

#102 Stone on 04.03.20 at 6:07 pm

#66 Just anybody on 04.03.20 at 5:16 pm
“Real estate markets in Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and pretty much everywhere outside of Alberta won’t revive until the fall. Yup, six months. The Royal Bank sees a huge 40% surge in home sales in 2021.“
—————

And we know what that will do for prices .

Buy when you wish but don’t wait to long

———

I suspect it will be a mass dumping of real estate to get whatever money the sellers can get their hands on. I suspect that the time of foreign students at universities is over with. Same with mass immigration. As for vacations out of the country or any other international travel, I suspect new rules requiring a 14 day quarantine upon arrival to the destination and another 14 day quarantine upon return. In other words, a 2 week vacation becomes a 6 week ordeal. It’s happening now – gouvernment will not back off that restriction going forward, especially if social distancing stays in place for 18-24 months. Count on it.

No, real estate will become the new leper outside of being a home to live in.

I see rent reductions coming big time.

#103 Penny Henny on 04.03.20 at 6:09 pm

In the States 100,000 were expected to lose jobs in March.-GT

//////////////////

I was amazed to read that too. In what world are they living to expect ONLY 100,000 job losses last month?

#104 Sail away on 04.03.20 at 6:09 pm

#82 Felon Musk on 04.03.20 at 5:39 pm

You think Tesla is going to disappear any time soon?

—————–

Nope… because Tesla is awesome

#105 AK on 04.03.20 at 6:11 pm

#2 Vanrentor on 04.03.20 at 3:20 pm
“For those of you with cash on the sidelines… what’s your entry strategy?”

“Maybe Dow 16K”
====================================

Dream on, Champ.

#106 Attrition on 04.03.20 at 6:15 pm

In that vein, I now give you free access to all the infectious disease control experts, public health authorities, pandemic modelers and renowned epidemiologists in the comments section. Enjoy.

Oh man, truly laugh out loud funny, and so damn true.

#107 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 6:16 pm

My city keeps coming out with brilliant new ordnances for this pandemic. Well you can still go for a walk in the park, but everyone has to walk in one direction. The grocery store now has arrows on the floor to follow. If you don’t, the social distance shamers will be on you like crazy. The pharmacist is dressed up like he works in a nuclear reactor.

#108 TheDood on 04.03.20 at 6:19 pm

#10 Question for YVR_Lurker on 04.03.20 at 3:38 pm
#369 yvr_lurker on 04.03.20 at 3:16 pm

With this knowledge, and witnessing the global shutdown with Covid19, are you perfectly happy going forward and resuming the status quo with China and not insisting on any changes on their behavior with regards to live animal markets? Are you happy to resume the 200 flights a day between China and the West when we are given the “all clear” signal? Should we all celebrate when this is over by the G7 group meeting the leaders in China for a special banquet with civet cat and pangolin on the menu? If so, you are a complete utter fool.

_______________________________________

Blah, Blah, Blah,…

As you claimed that the Chinese culture produced Covid -19, my question for you was: did your culture produce HIV?

Based on your online psycho profile, I would presume you preferred to be inflicted by HIV rather than Covid because HIV is your cultural, right?
_____________________________________________________

As much as you don’t like yvr_lurker’s question about live animal markets, its still a good question. Bird flu, Swine flu originate from these places do they not? If a single flu virus coming out of one of these markets is causal to the current situation, then its certainly of interest to know what these countries (all countries with live markets, not just China) forward actions might be. If nothing is done, we may clean up the COVID mess and then something new/novel might appear again, and Bingo, we’re right back in March 2020. That wouldn’t be good would it?

#109 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 6:19 pm

#94 Shawn Allen on 04.03.20 at 5:52 pm

—–

Well the US isn’t going to do that so that’s not going to work, just cause more capital flight out of here and probably a good chunk of the citizenry too this time.

#110 Hobo Harry on 04.03.20 at 6:23 pm

#168 Attrition on 04.02.20 at 6:50 pm

“How’s FIRE working out again?
Q: Where are those couple of guys who kept arguing with him on this?

A: In the basement of a house they don’t own, on a couch they didn’t buy.”

Or under a bridge they didn’t…

#111 Reality is stark on 04.03.20 at 6:25 pm

Who is going to pay rent next month when folks realize that their current rent is 25% more than it will be in 3-6 months?
Some landlords who have a good relationship with their tenants were paid April 1.
The reality is that once tenants realize they can virtually stay in any accommodation for the next 6 months rent free they won’t be paying anyone. The sheriff will be overloaded with evictions but they are likely not to enforce them as they have better things to do.
Sorry to burst your bubble but the taxman has come to get those with real estate since it is the only place left to abscond with money.
Did I forget to mention that the public sector will not be accepting any wage concessions as they are now the ruling class?
You thought our response to Covid was pathetic?
Our governments had a chance to restructure the country after 2008 and did nothing.
Pure ineptitude and nothing short of revolting. Read my posts. They have all been consistent.
It’s one thing to get fleeced and another entirely to get raped.

#112 Jack76 on 04.03.20 at 6:25 pm

#76 “Landlord Larry”
Agreed, as a renter and previously a landlord, caring and sharing the load works both ways.

#113 Just anybody on 04.03.20 at 6:26 pm

#100 Stone.

I have taken a screen shot of your post and will post it verbatim at the end of this year, or next ,when the anticipated mass dumping starts, or not .

I have done the same with similar posts like yours , over the past 10 years plus for this blog , so please do not feel singled out at all. You may turn out to the one who is finally correct . Best of luck ( you will need it)

#114 mj on 04.03.20 at 6:26 pm

what will happen if the virus is still around in November, in the states. What happens to the election?

#115 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 6:31 pm

Canadas Minister of Health on record saying China did not conceal this outbreak.

Next day FBI says they did including a guy they caught trying to smuggle SARS and MERS out the country. we have our own bad link as well, Order of Canada recipient fired and deported from Winnipeg lab.

Smoke and fire.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/618726/fbi-warned-biosecurity-risk-china-coronavirus/

#116 BLTandfries on 04.03.20 at 6:33 pm

I’ve been trying to remember to floss. Don’t wanna need dental treatment right now.

#117 coronspiracy on 04.03.20 at 6:35 pm

“We demonstrated, in fact, that we don’t really have a civil society any longer. What shocked me having spent such a long time in the Soviet Union…under the Soviet Union’s rule most people regarded it with a certain amount of contempt, made jokes about it, realized they were being mocked and fooled. In this case the population accept what they’re being told without any question. It’s extraordinary. The old USSR would have loved to have a population like the current western world which actually genuinely believe the propaganda and does what it’s told.”

peter hitchens

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmLQmzsqtB4

#118 Paul on 04.03.20 at 6:35 pm

#53 Wait There on 04.03.20 at 4:50 pm
OK, all these programs will come from the other 60% who pay net taxes.

Add to this what happens if CMHC needs help with the insurance programs. The banks are OK, they’re backed up by CMHC…….if they haven’t offloaded those mortgages as yet to the central bank.
————————————————————————————————
Hey, buying Up to 200 Billion what go wrong

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/finance-and-investing/insured-mortgage-purchase-program

#119 AGuyInVancouver on 04.03.20 at 6:36 pm

#37 Honest Realtor on 04.03.20 at 4:30 pm
So let’s get this right, Mr. Turner. You want to totally downplay the effect of this coronavirus when it suits you, but because you hate real estate, you assume it will be bad just for that sector.

Hmm. Now a reality check.

The real estate market will quietly pause and then roar back. Condos are a fact of life for millions, and are actually safer and cleaner than you think. SFD’s are much more ‘dirty’ and have higher health risk exposures…
_ _ _
LOL, what a steaming load.

Are you actually delusional enough to believe a SFH inhabited by just your family is more germy than a 200+ unit condo, full of strangers with questionable hygiene coughing in the elevators, the hallways and touching all the elevator buttons? I knew realtors were accomplished spinners of horsehockey, but I didn’t think you actually believed it yourself.

The Toronto market will be dead as a doornail.

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 6:38 pm

@#114mj
“what will happen if the virus is still around in November, in the states. What happens to the election?”

+++++

Biden will be President…

#121 CalgaryCarGuy on 04.03.20 at 6:40 pm

I was laid off on January 27th from a dealership I first started working for in 1993. At the time I was sort of surprised but not really as I was becoming expensive to keep in the modern Calgary economy. Having said that I was working for exactly the same money I made in 2007! As it turns out I am actually happy I got laid off when I did as I ended up being ahead of the crowd for getting enlisted with EI. I got my first payment two weeks ago. When I went to fill out my online report today I had a lot of trouble. What normally takes about five minutes to do took about forty-five. The system is obviously overloaded as I kept getting a window that said ‘service unavailable’ even when changing screens when answering questions. I kept at it…refreshing the screen multiple times for each question and finally got the report submitted. I’m hoping they get their computers upgraded before my next report as more and more people are accessing it. You could tell it wasn’t far from crashing completely. By the way I am the guy that lives in a motorhome by myself out near Bragg Creek west of Calgary. So I have been self isolating since the end of January. The ideal spot to live in the best of times but especially now. Nobody else here but deer, moose, and cougars (the wrong kind).

#122 Keyboard Smasher on 04.03.20 at 6:41 pm

Let’s lobby our squirrely PM to compel Trump to pass the NOPEC bill which would strip Saudi Arabia of its immunity to anti-trust legislation in their price fixing attempts via OPEC.

#123 Dolce Vita on 04.03.20 at 6:44 pm

Garth Turner, 2020:

“…exercise areas coated in bodily fluids”.

Jack D. Ripper, 1964:

“Mandrake…the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids…a foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids without the knowledge of the individual, and certainly without any choice. That’s the way your hard-core Commie works.”

———————————-

Ya…let the bullets fly Dr. Turner.

#124 Nonplused on 04.03.20 at 6:49 pm

#15 Back to the basics

It’s hard to say whether there has been a true run on gym equipment or if it is a supply chain disruption at this point. If it is a run of all the people who suddenly can’t use their gym memberships, then that also may have consequences down the road for all those sweaty icky shared equipment facilities. People might not be rushing back to share dumbbells with who knows who for some time.

In any case I think a more useful list would be things people might want to think about buying the next time they have to go out. Alternatives if you will, to the stuff that is already hard to find.

My first suggestion would be any kind of food that has a long shelf life without refrigeration. I’ve noticed many that are unloved by the hoarders. Some examples:

Canned meats
Actually any canned foods you can find
Dried soup mix
Poptarts (good one if you have kids)
Peanuts (if you aren’t allergic)
Chocolate bars
Cliff bars
Trail mix
Shop towels and paper towels
Kitchen garbage bags (for putting the shop towels in, don’t flush them or you’ll have bigger problems than no toilet paper)
Pet supplies
Bubly and pop (as an alternate to bottled water)
Juice boxes
Gatoraide
Windex, Comet
Laundry and dishwasher detergent
Vitamin C

You get the idea. Think of things that last a long time but are still in stock. But don’t hoard, or you might end up with a pantry full of canned ham that you really didn’t need.

#125 Gino on 04.03.20 at 6:53 pm

I’m confused Garth. How will the economy revive if no one wants condos, gyms, stacked towns, hotels or office buildings anymore given the icky factor? Won’t the GTA be empty? Won’t companies, businesses and construction go to zero? Where will people live – especially if detached homes don’t follow suit and go down in price? I’m confused how can you make a statement like that and then say all will revive after. And what about Europe, NYC, Beijing? They have more buildings and condos than us!

#126 Jager on 04.03.20 at 6:53 pm

Are the medical experts in any type of unison regarding expected expected fatalities, prevention (masks/no masks) or treatment (e.g. drug efficacy)?

In absence of the experts clear answers (guidance) people seek answers.

Rightly so.

Fear for their loved ones and themselves causes them to reach out, some artlessly others more guardedly.

All this is to be expected. Much in the world has suddenly changed yet the conduct of humanity remains as it was.

What have I missed here?

Finally, on a slightly different note…
https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1244212567695863809/photo/1

#127 DON on 04.03.20 at 6:55 pm

#101 You are so funny! on 04.03.20 at 6:05 pm

“So, simple. You just need to stay alive until September!”

Everyone around me was wondering why I couldn’t stop laughing. That was an awesome punchline!
************

Were you rocking back and forth while laughing?

At least you didn’t cough or sneeze.

In a Pharmacy a friend sneezed while reaching for a package of allergy medication. Due to all the ‘looks’ he got, he felt compelled to explain himself out loud.

This virus has created a lot of Trauma that may continue to exist on a gradient scale. Some will save a rainy day fund, some will rethink priorities..etc…

Everything comes down to jobs and future purchasing power. What about the impact on the bottom of the property ladder? All those renters who buy houses to push everyone else up the ladder.

Like toilet paper, I hope some essential products will be produced in Canada from now on.

Lots of fear out there on the streets and in the world… warranted or not. That’s our starting point on the road to social economic recovery. Every generation seems to get their own kick at an economic crisis. The sharing economy is in trouble and more office space to provide more room between workers (or some will continue to work from home). Shift happens!

Patience is right Garth!

It’s no longer a virtue, it is a necessity.

And this EI stipend is not enough to pay the bills people were paying on full incomes.

All the best to everyone! Be safe but don’t panic and support local businesses we need to get them back on their feet.

#128 Jimmy Hoffa on 04.03.20 at 6:58 pm

#261 Axehead on 04.02.20 at 11:36 pm

“Just wondering … will school happen during the summer months and will teachers work during the summer? Makes sense that this would happen.”

You really don’t understand the union gangsters do you Axehead? No friggin chance of that happening….

#129 Jager on 04.03.20 at 6:58 pm

Are the medical experts in any type of unison regarding expected expected fatalities, prevention (masks/no masks) or treatment (e.g. drug efficacy)?

In absence of the experts clear answers (guidance) people seek answers.

Rightly so.

Fear for their loved ones and themselves causes them to reach out, some artlessly others more guardedly.

All this is to be expected. Much in the world has suddenly changed yet the conduct of humanity remains as it was.

What have I missed here?

Finally, on a slightly different note ;)
https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1244212567695863809/photo/1

#130 Cbo on 04.03.20 at 7:03 pm

‘You’re richer then you think’
If you made between $60K-$100k over the last ten years you were instantly eligible for a $700k – $1M collateralized loan.
Well you’re not as rich as you thought.
But wait! Don’t panic sell. Banks don’t want to hold the bag (overpriced RE asset). The bank will happily defer your payments while charging you a hidden penalty in deferred interest charges. By their estimates it will take you up to six months to find a new hamster wheel and keep chippin away at that massive amortized loan.

#131 Cash is King on 04.03.20 at 7:04 pm

•Recovery? It’s a given. Only the timing is in question. Normal life may not be normal for a long while, but the pent-up desires will be huge, and take place in an atmosphere of public relief and historically cheap money. Governments at all levels will want you to spend your rear off in order to generate economic activity and sales tax revenue.

Spending your butt off is how people end up living pay cheque to pay cheque. Many will not do it again.

When do we begin to read about the large number of people declaring bankruptcy?

#132 Faron on 04.03.20 at 7:04 pm

#67 Sail away on 04.03.20 at 5:17 pm

#7 Sail away on 04.03.20 at 3:32 pm

Well, if there’s ever been a time to cutoff all illegal drugs to Canada, this is it.

No flow, no supply. Cold turkey. Sorry junkies, life is hard.

————–

#51 BS on 04.03.20 at 4:48 pm

B.C. drug users will be given access to a safe supply of drugs to encourage self-isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

————–

I have no words

——–

“Cut off all illegal drugs.” Ha ha haaa, that’s a good one.

C’mon, you free market capitalists should know well enough that where there is demand (in this case driven by very strong addiction) there *will* be supply. This is why the war on drugs failed. This is why no country will ever succeed in halting a drug black market unless the country controls the supply chain and drives prices down even if it offends your delicate morality.

I know it gets your undies in a bunch, but one or a small team of persons in protective gear administering will do a lot to keep gatherings down when compared to hundreds of addicts grouping up to buy from another addict none of whom are able to much in the way of hygiene.

And maybe you should take an opportunity to actually have a conversation with an addict or a someone who is struggling. You will realize that you are in the presence of a fellow human with the same heart you have but who happened to have the sh*t kicked out of them either by bad choice or circumstance. You’ll probably laugh together and get a genuine smile.

And you realize that the uptick in homeless people and addicts is strongly correlated with the rise in the housing cost/income ratio. Right? And you realize that many who are living paycheck to paycheck are doing so because they came of age when specuvestors and air BnB drove housing costs (both rent and ownership) way out of reach while wages stagnated and opportunities were minimal?

Good, I thought so.

#133 Joey Smallwood on 04.03.20 at 7:05 pm

#312 Genevieve Monterro on 04.03.20 at 10:08 am

“Garth, any idea why Justin Trudeau is wearing an ankle monitor?”

To ensure he doesn’t leave the country when the TSHTF big time…

#134 Toronto_CA on 04.03.20 at 7:05 pm

Count me in with the Swedes. If I were in charge:

1) do the lockdown currently in place for 4 weeks total. Enforce it as much as possible.
2) use the 4 weeks to throw as much money as you can to the hospitals and get masks, ventilators, beds, ICUs as well prepared as you can. Get doctors in from Asia where the virus has run its course. Ramp up testing and encourage app use to find those in contact with infected so they can isolate.

3) after 4 weeks, let people under 40 out of lockdown who are healthy or have antibodies – keep all gatherings under 500 people or less, encourage strongly social distancing everywhere, and mask use as well.
4) after 6 weeks, let people under 50 out of lockdown – same caveats
5) after 8 weeks, let people under 60 out of lockdown

After 12 weeks, everyone is free to make their choice. Keep people social distancing until the virus is stopped via herd immunity. The economy can get phased on over time as more and more people are allowed to leave.

Well..I’m sure there’s a million holes in my plan, but that’s what I would do. Limit the economic damage as much as possible while still giving people a fighting chance from a virus we will probably all get at some point in our lives anyway (and recover from in 99%+ percent of the case).

For those trying to time the market entry – don’t bother. Find an etf where you like the price (there’s a lot of bargains out there easy to find) and go in. Plan on it going even lower over the next 6 months, and don’t sweat when it does. In 3 years, reward yourself for buying in at a 35+% discount.

#135 Nonplused on 04.03.20 at 7:06 pm

#16 Sold Out on 04.03.20 at 3:42 pm
#365 ted on 04.03.20 at 2:27 pm
#356 JB wrote “………………………………………………………………
That is fine if they cut us off masks.
T2 can call Hydro Quebec and get them to turn off the taps. Even a 1.5% reduction in power would through the US into disarray. He can brush up on his drama teaching when he tells them that he can hear them on the phone they must have a power problem in Washington.”

——————

I worked for several years for a major US power producer and came to know the US power market fairly well as a result, so I think I can consider myself more of an expert on this than most.

Cutting off power exports will only hurt Quebec. Most US power producers are sitting on loads of coal and oil units that don’t run for economic or environmental reasons, but few have been decommissioned. The oil units in particular only run under extreme load situations like a severe cold snap, but they have to be kept sitting there for said cold snap. But trust me, these power companies would like nothing better than an excuse to turn all these units back on and make some money. These units have been a financial albatross around their neck for many years driving several bankruptcies. Trump the destroyer (of regulations) wouldn’t hesitate for a second to relax pollution controls should there be a need.

Also, these plants are all on standby (well, some have been decommissioned, but many are on standby). They have oil in the tanks and coal in the yard. The oil units can be online in a few hours and the coal units in a day.

And we are heading into summer and all the factories are closed, so they don’t need the power anyway.

#136 Orange Man....Orange on 04.03.20 at 7:09 pm

“The meme is growing that Trump miscalculated the pandemic, tried to politicize it, then was trampled by the consequences.” – Garth

=============

Those are the talking points that Pelosi and Schiff are sending out to CNN, MSNBC, et al.

None of it really happened, but are a prelude for Impeachment 2.0.

It would be funny if it wasn’t the Pandemic. Now it’s just sick and twisted.

#137 Repurchase Disagreement on 04.03.20 at 7:09 pm

Thank you Activists, Politicians, niave Educators, and apologists (e.g. anyone who has used the term Climate Denier) for focusing attention away from a REAL threat – Global Pandemic – and spending money out the wazoo on AGW (dirty little secret is WAY more than 3% of Atmospheric Scientists do NOT buy the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change scenarios).

So I say you all bear responsibility for the lack of basic preparation and lack of PPE. You should be ashamed.

#138 Sail away on 04.03.20 at 7:10 pm

#122 Keyboard Smasher on 04.03.20 at 6:41 pm

Let’s lobby our squirrely PM to compel Trump to pass the NOPEC bill which would strip Saudi Arabia of its immunity to anti-trust legislation in their price fixing attempts via OPEC.

———————

Oh, have no delusions: Trudeau does not have capacity to compel Trump to do anything.

At one time, he could have requested.. but after being caught mocking Trump on camera, you better believe that ship has sailed.

This is the reality of Canada’s relationship with the US today. Most of it due to the hubris and sanctimoniousness of T2 and Freeland.

#139 Oncebittwiceshy on 04.03.20 at 7:11 pm

Just anybody on 04.03.20 at 6:26 pm
#100 Stone.

I have taken a screen shot of your post and will post it verbatim at the end of this year, or next ,when the anticipated mass dumping starts, or not .

I have done the same with similar posts like yours , over the past 10 years plus for this blog , so please do not feel singled out at all. You may turn out to the one who is finally correct . Best of luck ( you will need it)

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Now, that is our first clue that you are probably under 40.

Stone has a very good recollection of the housing crashes in the early 80's. This is the way the housing market really works.

Sorry Garth, there will be no pent up demand for housing when we are experiencing 15 – 20% unemployment.

OSFI and policy makers are currently pulling out all stops to ensure bank liquidity now. The people that are working are going to have one hell of a time getting a mortgage or a mortgage re-finance when the banks are watching home prices fall.

Someone will list there home (a must sell) and the ever present and helpful realtor will list it at the market rate. The owner will get anxious after 2 weeks without a sniff and then they will drop the price, but not meaningfully.

Over the next 2 months, as they experience a recessionary market, they will drop their price significantly but not quite enough.

They will find price discovery when someone making $40,000/yr decides that it might be worth putting in a stink bid … and it gets accepted.

Now, unfortunately, you are sitting in that same building/cul de sac/development and you are about to learn what comparable sales in the area means.

Too bad that Stone and others, if they are smart, will not be singing "I told you so" because there are a lot of homeowners in for a world of hurt. Smugness is reserved for those "house millionaires".

#140 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 7:12 pm

Canada should be ashamed that we don’t have the industrial production here to make a simple paper mask or plastic shield.

We should be even more ashamed that not one of our premier companies who have been bailed out repeatedly by the govt, couldn’t switch up a corner of their plants to start popping these out.

Yes looking at you Bombardier, Loblaws, Irvings, Auto sector you disgusting parasites.

Whats more we should be ashamed of a PM hiding in his cottage. The only leader in the entire world doing so. Trump out there every day, takes heat and hate from all direction.

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 7:13 pm

@#122 CalgarycarGuy

Crappy news you got whacked.
Good ole Bragg Creek.
I used to go 4×4 ing out there in 1980.
Nothing but bush back then. Beautiful foothills country
I saw the upgrades there and in Kananaskis and Canmore after the winter Olympics.
Canmore was a slow truckstop in 1980 after the coal mine shut down.
Used to party up on the old ski lodge on Pigeon Mountain….crazy.

#142 Blog Bunny on 04.03.20 at 7:13 pm

I feel so blessed for my own gym in my basement right now. Being an introvert at heart has its advantages at times like these.

#143 Sold Out on 04.03.20 at 7:15 pm

Just a reminder, the pulp used to make 3M N95 masks comes from BC.

They’re busting their butts to keep 3M supplied, even after Dim Donnie’s ham-handed application of the DPA.

https://www.timescolonist.com/business/nanaimo-mill-churning-out-pulp-for-medical-masks-gowns-1.24106220

Per Adrian Dix:

Meanwhile, Dix said he was “disappointed” by news out of the U.S., that President Donald Trump has ordered 3M to stop exporting N95 masks to Canada.

But Dix said it would not be helpful to withhold pulp from B.C. mills that 3M uses to make those masks.

“This action is wrong. It’s wrong for them, it’s wrong for us,” he said. “We shouldn’t respond with retaliation. We should respond with calls to work together.”

#144 BLTandfries on 04.03.20 at 7:16 pm

“I just realized – no haircuts to be had!”

I been realizing it for a while. May go full mullet.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/1e/e1/fa/1ee1fa760664b79d87d072490b9480e3.jpg

#145 coronspiracy on 04.03.20 at 7:17 pm

“Dear Chancellor,

As Emeritus of the Johannes-Gutenberg-University in Mainz and longtime director of the Institute for Medical Microbiology, I feel obliged to critically question the far-reaching restrictions on public life that we are currently taking on ourselves in order to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 virus.”

Copy Pasted for the lazy/scared people who dont want to klick links:
=============================================

1. Statistics

In infectiology – founded by Robert Koch himself – a traditional distinction is made between infection and disease. An illness requires a clinical manifestation. [1] Therefore, only patients with symptoms such as fever or cough should be included in the statistics as new cases.

In other words, a new infection – as measured by the COVID-19 test – does not necessarily mean that we are dealing with a newly ill patient who needs a hospital bed. However, it is currently assumed that five percent of all infected people become seriously ill and require ventilation. Projections based on this estimate suggest that the healthcare system could be overburdened.

We are Currently Not Measuring the Incidence of Coronavirus Diseases, but the Activity of the Specialists Searching for Them
My question: Did the projections make a distinction between symptom-free infected people and actual, sick patients – i.e. people who develop symptoms?

2. Dangerousness

A number of coronaviruses have been circulating for a long time – largely unnoticed by the media. [2] If it should turn out that the COVID-19 virus should not be ascribed a significantly higher risk potential than the already circulating corona viruses, all countermeasures would obviously become unnecessary.

The internationally recognized International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents will soon publish a paper that addresses exactly this question. Preliminary results of the study can already be seen today and lead to the conclusion that the new virus is NOT different from traditional corona viruses in terms of dangerousness. The authors express this in the title of their paper “SARS-CoV-2: Fear versus Data“. [3]

My question: How does the current workload of intensive care units with patients with diagnosed COVID-19 compare to other coronavirus infections, and to what extent will this data be taken into account in further decision-making by the federal government? In addition: Has the above study been taken into account in the planning so far? Here too, of course, “diagnosed“ means that the virus plays a decisive role in the patient’s state of illness, and not that previous illnesses play a greater role.

3. Dissemination

According to a report in the Süddeutsche Zeitung, not even the much-cited Robert Koch Institute knows exactly how much is tested for COVID-19. It is a fact, however, that a rapid increase in the number of cases has recently been observed in Germany as the volume of tests increases. [4]

It is therefore reasonable to suspect that the virus has already spread unnoticed in the healthy population. This would have two consequences: firstly, it would mean that the official death rate – on 26 March 2020, for example, there were 206 deaths from around 37,300 infections, or 0.55 percent [5] – is too high; and secondly, it would mean that it would hardly be possible to prevent the virus from spreading in the healthy population.

My question: Has there already been a random sample of the healthy general population to validate the real spread of the virus, or is this planned in the near future?

4. Mortality

The fear of a rise in the death rate in Germany (currently 0.55 percent) is currently the subject of particularly intense media attention. Many people are worried that it could shoot up like in Italy (10 percent) and Spain (7 percent) if action is not taken in time.

At the same time, the mistake is being made worldwide to report virus-related deaths as soon as it is established that the virus was present at the time of death – regardless of other factors. This violates aPrinciples of only when it is certain that an agent has played a significant role in the disease or death may a diagnosis be made. The Association of the Scientific Medical Societies of Germany expressly writes in its guidelines: “In addition to the cause of death, a causal chain must be stated, with the corresponding underlying disease in third place on the death certificate. Occasionally, four-linked causal chains must also be stated.“ [6]

At present there is no official information on whether, at least in retrospect, more critical analyses of medical records have been undertaken to determine how many deaths were actually caused by the virus.

My question: Has Germany simply followed this trend of a COVID-19 general suspicion? And: is it intended to continue this categorisation uncritically as in other countries? How, then, is a distinction to be made between genuine corona-related deaths and accidental virus presence at the time of death?

5. Comparability

The appalling situation in Italy is repeatedly used as a reference scenario. However, the true role of the virus in that country is completely unclear for many reasons – not only because points 3 and 4 above also apply here, but also because exceptional external factors exist which make these regions particularly vulnerable.

One of these factors is the increased air pollution in the north of Italy. According to WHO estimates, this situation, even without the virus, led to over 8,000 additional deaths per year in 2006 in the 13 largest cities in Italy alone. [7] The situation has not changed significantly since then. [8] Finally, it has also been shown that air pollution greatly increases the risk of viral lung diseases in very young and elderly people. [9]

Moreover, 27.4 percent of the particularly vulnerable population in this country live with young people, and in Spain as many as 33.5 percent. In Germany, the figure is only seven percent [10]. In addition, according to Prof. Dr. Reinhard Busse, head of the Department of Management in Health Care at the TU Berlin, Germany is significantly better equipped than Italy in terms of intensive care units – by a factor of about 2.5 [11].

My question: What efforts are being made to make the population aware of these elementary differences and to make people understand that scenarios like those in Italy or Spain are not realistic here?

source: https://www.globalresearch.ca/open-letter-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/5708004

#146 Dolce Vita on 04.03.20 at 7:18 pm

That was excellent Garth, just excellent.

Again, perused all the hapless Cdn. MSM economic news…PALES, WITLESS in comparison to what you wrote today (and you held back “Well, there’s more”).

Please don’t hold back Garth. It’s important economic news that Canadians need to know about and are getting piecemeal, if that.

————————————

And from Ontario today (CBC not the only ones into virus porn headlines, the UK in there as well like a dirty shirt):

“Canada: Ontario warned to expect 15,000 deaths from coronavirus”

…they later state:

“3,000 to 15,000 over the course of the pandemic, which they say could last as long as two years.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/ontario-canada-coronavirus-warned-to-expect-15000-deaths

————————————

2 years, are you kidding me?

In Italia today some in Gov talking about relaxing what amounts to Martial Law by mid-May with the caveat of “we’ll see”.

NO WORRIES CANADA

Canada, if deaths really start to mount up, hapless Health Officers will cave and do what Italia is doing and implement or fast track life saving drugs to stop the virus. 2nd from the right already as prophylactic drug therapy, far right tried in Naples already with success, Gov Pharma Italia getting heat from Italian MSM as to why not “yesterday morning”, expect they will cave soon enough:

https://i.imgur.com/ZJ1zCWh.jpg

————————————

Canadian Health Officers will end up being held to account after this over for not having implemented above drug therapies to lessen deaths ESPECIALLY IF EVEN HALF OF WHAT ONTARIO THINKS, HAPPENS.

For example, Alberta’s “hero” Health Officer Hinshaw (family physician, community medicine per her resume) said a few days ago said that she doesn’t like hydroxychloroquine so not trying it.

I mean LUCKY AB (pun) when they have the word of Hìnshaw over that of some of World’s top virologists, right?

#147 Nonplused on 04.03.20 at 7:18 pm

#19 Keith

RRSP’s and other assets are taxed upon death as if they were cashed out in a single year. In other words, the estate tax is already 50%. The only thing exempted is the primary residence.

I think we can add “armchair tax collectors” to Garth’s list of deplorables in this comment section.

#148 Nonplused on 04.03.20 at 7:20 pm

#24 CORONSPIRACY

Except that Sweden is now locking down.

#149 Wrk.dover on 04.03.20 at 7:23 pm

This is a real love in going on right here tonight!

Happy hour at Hedonism II has nothing on this site.

#150 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 7:23 pm

@#100 New West

many’s a time I swilled at the Admiral and many’s a time I ate at Hon’s.
Good to know they’re in New West.
i’ll have to check it out.
After the Covid19 pandorum dies down…..

#151 bintopo on 04.03.20 at 7:23 pm

November election won’t happen. Trump will cancel the election until further notice!

#152 Faron on 04.03.20 at 7:24 pm

#103 Penny Henny on 04.03.20 at 6:09 pm

In the States 100,000 were expected to lose jobs in March.-GT

//////////////////

I was amazed to read that too. In what world are they living to expect ONLY 100,000 job losses last month?

———————

Has to do with timing of data collection. They collect data over the week that includes the 12th of the month. This month, that period occurred before most lock-downs began. Cycle seems to be survey for a week, analyze data for a couple. Release he report in the first week of following month, revise then repeat.

#153 TheDood on 04.03.20 at 7:26 pm

#38 Honest Realtor on 04.03.20 at 4:30 pm
So let’s get this right, Mr. Turner. You want to totally downplay the effect of this coronavirus when it suits you, but because you hate real estate, you assume it will be bad just for that sector.

Hmm. Now a reality check.

The real estate market will quietly pause and then roar back. Condos are a fact of life for millions, and are actually safer and cleaner than you think. SFD’s are much more ‘dirty’ and have higher health risk exposures.

As some global locations suffer more and people are crowded and unhappy there, they will want to come to Canada. And demographically, and to help with the debt from this episode, Canada will increase immigration, putting even more pressure on housing in bigger cities.

All in all, a short pause and possible downturn in RE will merely be an amazing buying opportunity. If things don’t do down, buy anyway, because for sure prices will be much higher in 1 and 2 years than today.

You can’t beat basic demographics and economics.
________________________________________

Uuuhh, OK. And the Leafs will win the Stanley Cup.

#154 Seb on 04.03.20 at 7:26 pm

I bet that if we crazy glued shut the lips of politicians and the media for three months, most of our problems would go away.

It is like they are pulling the “Little Albert Experiment” on us.

#155 Ron Jeremy on 04.03.20 at 7:30 pm

121 CalgaryCarGuy on 04.03.20 at 6:40 pm

“By the way I am the guy that lives in a motorhome by myself out near Bragg Creek west of Calgary. So I have been self isolating since the end of January. The ideal spot to live in the best of times but especially now. Nobody else here but deer, moose, and cougars (the wrong kind).”

Well maybe after this post, given that you have revealed where you live, the right kind of cougars will show up…

#156 BLTandfries on 04.03.20 at 7:41 pm

“I now give you free access to all the infectious disease control experts, public health authorities, pandemic modelers and renowned epidemiologists in the comments section. Enjoy.”

I missed this the first time. Bro I am gonna tell you something 100% seriously, I am a health professional in twice-weekly telecons with senior health authorities, and I can tell you with certainty that they don’t know or tell me anything that I hadn’t already picked up from the internet. They set actual policy that I have to abide by, but it’s based on facts that I have mostly already gleaned.

#157 Dolce Vita on 04.03.20 at 7:41 pm

1 Last Thing on transparency so Cdns know how long this economic debacle will last and can plan for.

Sort of? refreshing and in light of what ON disclosed today about mortality projections:

“Patty Hajdu, Canada’s Minister of Health, and Chief public health officer of Canada Dr. Theresa Tam told reporters Wednesday that the health care system has the potential to be overwhelmed in all of the COVID-19 scenarios projected by the federal government.”

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/video/watch/coronavirus-outbreak-canada-healthcare-system-cant-handle-a-surge-in-covid-19-cases-ministers-say/vp-BB121Y3x

————————————-

It would be nice to know the projections so people can plan accordingly.

Canada has most educated lot in the WHOLE WIDE WORLD yet Gov worries they cannot handle the truth.

I mean, come on.

TRUTH important so people can plan $$$ lives during this crisis.

I forgot, MEANWHILE ON THE LEFT COAST:

BC Chief Health Officer MOONBEAM & her devout followers at CTV Vancouver still jabbering on about a “flattening curve”.

It must be the Orca’s helping out?

WHAT a crock from them.

#158 You are ... on 04.03.20 at 7:42 pm

#100 NewWest on 04.03.20 at 6:03 pm

#50 Ahhh … Robson Street … on 04.03.20 at 4:46 pm

Even the actual Robsenstrasse hotel was just demolished and Hoy’s is no more. Hoy’s had lot’s of tables and was a great place to get a large plateful of good Chinese food for cheap along with a bottle of Tsingtao beer for $2.99.

—————————————–

Hon’s. It was Hon’s Wun-tun House.
—————————–
absolutely right … my error. Hoy’s was on Kingsway at Inverness. Great place too, but last I saw it was up for sale. After closing down the Addy we used to stop in at Portfino’s (one block west on Hastings as I remember) and the owners would always bring out a bottle of grappa for the “loyal customers.” Free of charge too. Actually tossed the pizza dough in the air for all to see. But I remember the original Hon’s was on Main and Pender(ish.) They used to make the soup in the front window. Ever try the green door?

#159 Back to the basics on 04.03.20 at 7:43 pm

Thanks for your comments Ronaldo and nonplused.
I thought cash would be king, and you are correct with banks shut and limited withdrawS. but all retailers insist on credit cards. I think the future will be non cash transactions.
Nonplused a great list I include can salmon as it has a shelf life of fives years. Which I just found out.

Oh yes it was a Canadian tire general manager who told me people were buying gym equipment ent of the shelves.

#160 yvr_lurker on 04.03.20 at 7:43 pm

#8 Sail Away

Well, if there’s ever been a time to cutoff all illegal drugs to Canada, this is it.

No flow, no supply. Cold turkey. Sorry junkies, life is hard.

—————————————————-
It would be fantastic if that was the outcome; that some would be able to overcome their addiction. Brutal process though, being cold turkey. Unfortunately where I live one neighbour who is newly unemployed has been sitting on his deck smoking joints all day long looking at his phone. Perhaps it is his way to cope, but there is no social distancing from the smell.

#161 Calgary on 04.03.20 at 7:44 pm

Trudeau still in quarantine(hiding). What a shame! Good just for Pride Parade and recreational drug legalisation. Thumbs up for Jason Kenney. Even Trump is all hands on deck.

#162 Doug t on 04.03.20 at 7:44 pm

Patience or patients?

This economic destruction is going to change the way countries work together – socialism/communism on the rise?

#163 Doghouse Dweller on 04.03.20 at 7:47 pm

#151 bintopo
November election won’t happen. Trump will cancel the election until further notice!
——————————————————
It`s the Game of Thrones and we’re The Shithole of the North

#164 Figure it Out on 04.03.20 at 7:48 pm

“OK, all these programs will come from the other 60% who pay net taxes.”

If governments consistently run deficits decade after decade, how can taxpayers claim, with a straight face, that they’re paying for everything?

It’s like laying down your credit card and paying for the table’s dinner, bragging to everyone that you picked up the tab, and never paying your credit card bills. You can pick up the tab, or you can leave it for the next generation… but don’t do one and claim to be doing the other.

#165 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 7:50 pm

@#140 not 1st
Re disgusting corporate govt handout parasites

Total agreement, however, you forgot:
SNC Lavalin, the banks, the oil companies, the media, etc etc etc.

As for Trudeau’s cottage hideaway…..we’ll let the voters decide…

#166 yvr_lurker on 04.03.20 at 7:52 pm

#11 Questioning Man

Based on your online psycho profile, I would presume you preferred to be inflicted by HIV rather than Covid because HIV is your cultural, right?
——————————

????? While you are working on your grammar, I suggest that you also try to make coherent paragraphs that follow some logical order. Then, perhaps we can have a debate.

#167 Barb on 04.03.20 at 7:58 pm

“Start thinking about strategies now. This pathetic blog will have more to say on that in the days to come.”

———————————

Yes, hoping you’d have strategies for us, Mr. T.
But in some cryptic way.
(Morneau reads…ahem).

#168 Dolce Vita on 04.03.20 at 7:58 pm

I know, I know, nattering BUT I forgot to mention that not only the news you wrote about today was impressive but to me equally IMPRESSIVE was your:

Analysis.

As I said before and I will say it again, you are at your best in times of crisis.

The ONLY source of economic news and analysis I have read so far that a person can actually begin to plan their economic lives around during this crisis.

Thank you.

#169 Zed on 04.03.20 at 8:01 pm

I think that the time has come to tax principal residence with capital gain just as any other personal stuff that is taxed: stocks, mutual funds, cars and gold bullions (if you make a profit).

The federal government is here now to help so all those RE profits have to be shared with the government.

My BCE shares that I bought at $10 so many years ago, i have to pay tax on any profit even if they only followed inflation after all those years. The federal government help foster RE gains, time to share.

I say that every house sold from now on has to be reported to the CRA and a part of any profit has to be given to Canada. I would say just like stocks, 50%, regardless of the amount of years you owned (renovation receipts accepted to reduce the profit).

We are in serious financial position now, something serious has to be done. I hope that the PM is more that just “Sunny Ways”!

This action would really make housing more affordable since trade up people would have less money after selling so able to pay less the next one, and so on.

Like Jessy James said when asked why he was robbing banks: “ this is where the money is”.

The small businesses that the finance minister wanted to tax more the last few years, they have no more money.

#170 wallflower on 04.03.20 at 8:01 pm

#97 Ronaldo on 04.03.20 at 5:54 pm
and the bank run on cash you predict

just curious… what would YOU be spending your cash on? or using it for?
or rather, HOW… I mean who deals in cash?

#171 Don Guillermo on 04.03.20 at 8:03 pm

#42 The real Kip (Ret) on 04.03.20 at 4:34 pm
Well hey, on the plus side, Canada will easily make our climate change commitments as per The Paris Accord.
Winning!
********************************************
And then when we see no change in weather patterns we can throw away the climate change boat anchors and get on with life.

#172 Nonplused on 04.03.20 at 8:08 pm

121 CalgaryCarGuy on 04.03.20 at 6:40 pm

“By the way I am the guy that lives in a motorhome by myself out near Bragg Creek west of Calgary. So I have been self isolating since the end of January. The ideal spot to live in the best of times but especially now. Nobody else here but deer, moose, and cougars (the wrong kind).”

——————–

Ah, Bragg Creek. So beautiful. So many motorcycles once the snow melts and the gravel has been swept up that they actually have special parking lots for them. And Highway 66. I think I can include Bragg Creek as part of my new theme that there is no such thing as a non-essential job. I am out of double salted dropies (a Dutch candy), and the only place I know to buy them by the kilogram is in Bragg Creek. A family runs the candy store. They also sell ice cream. I am betting they are closed. I bet that is hurting. Everyone knows about the store, they have been a staple of the community for years, but what can they do now?

There is a pub in the same mall, I am expecting that they are also closed. As well as a few other vendors. When will the motorcycles come back? The motorcycles and RV’s and other day time tourists that come through are the lifeblood of the town.

PS I never did notice a lack of “cougars” in Bragg Creek, especially in the pub.

#173 Robert Ash on 04.03.20 at 8:10 pm

It would be interesting to learn what alternatives to Fixed Asset purchases and or strategies are under consideration, given the low yields presently. How do we maintain the balance with this segment of our Portfolios. Is it simply a GIC strategy, for a short duration, Fixed asset strategy. With the Corporate Bond Market so tenuous, what are folks considering in this market. Today?

#174 Treasure Island CEO - 512.44 Troy Ounces of Gold within Bicycle Distance on 04.03.20 at 8:11 pm

You just need to stay alive until September?

Easy for you to say, Garth, living in your vaulted bank / bunker.

Dr. Jacob Glanville of Distributed Bio tweeted on Tuesday that after nine weeks, “we have generated extremely potent picomolar antibodies that block known #neutralizing #ACE2 #epitopes, blocking the novel #coronavirus from infecting human cells.”

“I’m happy to report that my team has successfully taken five antibodies that back in 2002 were determined to bind and neutralize, block and stop the SARS virus,” he told Radio New Zealand’s “Checkpoint” – adding “We’ve evolved them in our laboratory, so now they very vigorously block and stop the SARS-CoV-2 [COVID-19] virus as well.”

Glanville says that the treatment could be ‘out by September,’ however he will need ‘funding and efficient GMP manufacturing.’

Now I get why September is the chosen month.

#175 Bonezone on 04.03.20 at 8:13 pm

There will not be a sudden go back to previous normal.

Done son

#176 Barb on 04.03.20 at 8:16 pm

“…prison inmates are beginning to be released.”

A Clockwork Orange, by Kubrick.

#177 NoName on 04.03.20 at 8:17 pm

this is interesting

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

#178 Dolce Vita on 04.03.20 at 8:19 pm

#145 coronspiracy

Let me shorten your diatribe (grist for your mill).

Search for this document by the “Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team” and look at projections of uncounted infections (they are THE source that changed the minds of UK, Germany, USA, etc. to lockdown):

“Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries”

Go to Table 2. Take +/- 2 Std. Dev. numbers and divide into published deaths on those dates.

About 0.1% or so is what you should get for the mortality rate.

There, no mile long diatribe necessary.

——————————–

But HERE’S THE RUB(S):

1.) The flu has a vaccine, COVID does not.

2.) The flu has drug therapies and does not kill via near fatal & rapidly in all cases: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

You can argue the pandemic conspiracy & mortality rate all you want but in the end, THE RUB(S) wins it.

When a COVID vaccine comes along, then you can chest-thump BUT not before.

#179 yvr_lurker on 04.03.20 at 8:24 pm

#121 and # 172
Bragg Creek
——————–

The area around Bragg Creek, Turner Valley and the Kananaskis is probably my favorite area east of the rockies. Terrific for hiking in Peter Lougheed park, great vistas once you get into the alpine and not the busloads of tourists that overwhelm Banff and Lake Louise. Peaceful, scenic, and the locals are great. My wife’s brother lives in Okotoks and every year we come visit in the summer.

#180 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 8:25 pm

There is nothing Trudeau can do to hurt Trump. US has more than ample power supplies to go it without Quebec.

Maybe we should have been a better ally to the US under Trumps watch instead of bashing him and the country everyday. Trump is the ONLY US president to never be invited to visit Canadian soil by a PM. You think he doesn’t know whats going on up here with Trudeau and his band of misfits and our Marxist media.

The Texas national guard could take Canada in an afternoon. Trump is going down to teach Venezuela a lesson, maybe Canada is next.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6774974/cruise-ship-venezuela-ramming/

#181 Drinking on 04.03.20 at 8:27 pm

#172 Nonplused

Ha, I was in your (ghost) town yesterday, never noticed the motorhome; just had to get out of dodge for the day! Great place indeed!

#182 nbe on 04.03.20 at 8:33 pm

Hi Garth,

I am a bit confused by the comment “Real estate markets in Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and pretty much everywhere outside of Alberta won’t revive until the fall.”

I expect wave two of the virus to hit in the fall – and we will still not have a vaccine.

Barry

#183 Drinking on 04.03.20 at 8:43 pm

#181 Drinking to Nonplused: No, I did not get our of my vehicle (just incase people in Bragg Creek are wondering); respecting the rules, just enjoyed the scenery!

#184 Steve French on 04.03.20 at 8:45 pm

Communist Party of China is starting to make their geopolitical move.

This is unrestricted warfare.

Cold War 2.0 is on like donkey kong folks.

For real.

#185 da man on 04.03.20 at 8:46 pm

Ontario Government stops Constructions….

That is the biggest BS news story of the day…90% of my company’s work is allowed to proceed. 90% of all construction in Ontario still qualifies as essential services…what a bunch of bull.

#186 John in Mtl on 04.03.20 at 8:46 pm


“Normal life may not be normal for a long while, but the pent-up desires will be huge, and take place in an atmosphere of public relief and historically cheap money. Governments at all levels will want you to spend your rear off in order to generate economic activity and sales tax revenue.” – Garth

And I would urge everybody to “vote with your wallet” – start buying locally or nationally made stuff. It will be of better quality and slightly more expensive but it will last longer. STOP BUYING CRAP FROM …..!

#187 Jake on 04.03.20 at 8:47 pm

“This is not the prelude to a depression” – Garth

Cramer thinks we’re gettin’ close…
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/cramer-week-ahead-we-could-be-on-the-verge-of-a-depression.html

#188 Tinfoil Hat on 04.03.20 at 8:48 pm

Some conspiracy theories are just true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovnUyTRMERI&feature=emb_title

#189 Bob Dog on 04.03.20 at 8:52 pm

Whats with the plywood boarding up the place? I’ve seen 25% vacancy rates on Robson in the past and nobody boarded up the place.

Someone is trying to make a point or a slumlord is planning for a very unpleasant future

#190 Willie Sutton on 04.03.20 at 8:55 pm

#169 Zed on 04.03.20 at 8:01 pm

“Like Jessy James said when asked why he was robbing banks: “ this is where the money is”

You stand corrected Zed. The quote, “that’s where the money is” came from America’s greatest bank robber of all time, Willie Sutton. Sutton claimed a reporter who interviewed him made up the quote. It is also the title of his autobiography.

https://www.amazon.ca/Where-Money-Was-Willie-Sutton/dp/067076115X

#191 Smoking Man on 04.03.20 at 9:00 pm

What really sucks.

I’m not going to be around long enough to see if my predictions kill it..

Shit happens..

Love all you dogs…

#192 TurnerNation on 04.03.20 at 9:07 pm

… Today TD is announcing more relief through our TD Helps program by reducing credit card interest rates by 50% for customers facing financial hardship.

“Over the last few weeks, everyone across TD has been coming together in extraordinary ways to support Canadians through the crisis,” said Teri Currie, Group Head, Personal Banking. “We continue to stand by our customers, by making credit available, providing access to critical banking services across all of our channels. Most Canadians pay their credit card on time, but we know that right now some families are facing financial hardship and are in need of some additional relief.”

Through TD Helps, almost 30,000 customers facing financial hardship have reached out to us for personalized advice and relief over the past three weeks, including deferrals on payments of credit cards, personal loans and mortgages, debt consolidation into lower interest loans, and other measures. The TD Helps program has been in place since the 2008 financial crisis to help customers experiencing financial hardship. In recent weeks, they have been overwhelmed with calls – 10 times more than normal – and colleagues from other areas of the bank have been redeployed to provide advice and help to those customers in urgent need of assistance.

Today TD is announcing more relief through our TD Helps program by reducing credit card interest rates by 50% for customers facing financial hardship. Customers experiencing financial hardship and in need of credit card relief can visit td.com/covid19.

#193 Stone on 04.03.20 at 9:20 pm

#113 Just anybody on 04.03.20 at 6:26 pm
#100 Stone.

I have taken a screen shot of your post and will post it verbatim at the end of this year, or next ,when the anticipated mass dumping starts, or not .

I have done the same with similar posts like yours , over the past 10 years plus for this blog , so please do not feel singled out at all. You may turn out to the one who is finally correct . Best of luck ( you will need it)

———

Oh goodie. Do I have a chance of winning a prize if I’m right?

#194 MF on 04.03.20 at 9:21 pm

178 Dolce Vita on 04.03.20 at

That’s IF a vaccine is created. And IF one is created how protective will it be?

Lets face it, we are all going to get this thing at some point. 80% or so will have a mild to severe infection. 20% will be in agony. Like not 1st mentioned our best strategy is to stay healthy as can be and hope for the best. Right now we are just trying to give room to the medical system to get ready.

Oh yeah, the recovery will come…but it’s going to be way more muddled than everyone here is expecting. No real “V”, more like an “L”. Talk to any baby boomers how they feel, and they will tell you they are understandably frightened. This is a huge segment of our population that is relatively wealthy. Less cruises, restaurants, sporting events, concerts, etc.

MF

#195 Genesis II on 04.03.20 at 9:28 pm

A very interesting (and balanced) perspective on this Coronavirus. Long but worth the read, if you like reading more than sound-bites:

https://charleseisenstein.org/essays/the-coronation/?_page=2&fbclid=IwAR3XG6oyRpO3qZV6txIrdKlpGuv13Fwx4foxgmiSW3aZR8L8ZV0SYuvpYQA

The Conspiracy Narrative

Because Covid-19 seems to justify so many items on the totalitarian wish list, there are those who believe it to be a deliberate power play. It is not my purpose to advance that theory nor to debunk it, although I will offer some meta-level comments. First a brief overview.

The theories (there are many variants) talk about Event 201 (sponsored by the Gates Foundation, CIA, etc. last September), and a 2010 Rockefeller Foundation white paper detailing a scenario called “Lockstep,” both of which lay out the authoritarian response to a hypothetical pandemic. They observe that the infrastructure, technology, and legislative framework for martial law has been in preparation for many years. All that was needed, they say, was a way to make the public embrace it, and now that has come. Whether or not current controls are permanent, a precedent is being set for:

The tracking of people’s movements at all times (because coronavirus)
The suspension of freedom of assembly (because coronavirus)
The military policing of civilians (because coronavirus)
Extrajudicial, indefinite detention (quarantine, because coronavirus)
The banning of cash (because coronavirus)
Censorship of the Internet (to combat disinformation, because coronavirus)
Compulsory vaccination and other medical treatment, establishing the state’s sovereignty over our bodies (because coronavirus)
The classification of all activities and destinations into the expressly permitted and the expressly forbidden (you can leave your house for this, but not that), eliminating the un-policed, non-juridical gray zone. That totality is the very essence of totalitarianism. Necessary now though, because, well, coronavirus.

#196 Drinking on 04.03.20 at 9:31 pm

I am not sure about the rest of you blogs; given this crisis, things have really stood out to me.

Support our farmers that feed us; why in the hell would the government charge them a carbon tax????

Energy, we all need it, plenty of it in Canada, why import it from countries that are trying to ruin us?

More manufacturing needs to be done in this country; yes, one will pay a little more but at least we will have the resources when it is needed.

Pulp Mills, people love their toilet paper, kleenex and paper towels.

All can be done in today’s environment with much less degradation to our land and air comparing to the past.

Oh, by the way, all these industries help support our health care, pensions, etc!

Why on earth would we allow any other country to take that away from us? Have we not learned a lesson in all this??

#197 Keith on 04.03.20 at 9:35 pm

@ #147 Nonplused

Read my comment more carefully. The number of baby boomers whose income will be high enough outside their RRSP for their entire RRSP to be taxed at the top marginal rate is so small as to be irrelevant.

The comment is referencing when the government needs money, it will have to tap places it hasn’t been. According to Garth, the major asset of most boomers is their home, with precious little else. Look for an asset tax on estates, including the currently exempt principal residence.

#198 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.03.20 at 10:02 pm

#6 Classical Liberal Millennial on 04.03.20 at 3:27 pm
In today’s presser, they are saying the pandemic could last 18-24 months. They can’t possibly expect social distancing and shutdowns for that long…can they? And if so, how long before society revolts and simply decides to slowly wake up the economy with or without the government’s approval? After all, they can’t arrest everybody

——–

That’s why the military is coming to a neighbourhood near you in 2 weeks…

#199 Lorne on 04.03.20 at 10:05 pm

#17 the Jaguar on 04.03.20 at 3:48 pm

Nice’grafitti’ on the Robson Street photo. Gives the neighbourhood a real ‘ghetto’ overturn. The penalties for that sort of mischief should be severe.

If you notice in the photo, the white mini wheeled trailer with the pylons surrounding it, is a multi camera portable security camera system. They have a tendency to show up in crime infested areas. So ya, its real now.
…………..
Actually, some of the merchants including Lululemon, are inviting some street artists to create something on the plywood they have put up. It actually has the potential to be rather pleasant.

#200 Moses71 on 04.03.20 at 10:15 pm

They better add PST to Alberta. So tired of Alberta repelling PST like they’re exempt and “OK”. After living here 10 years, get over it and bring it back. This province needs money.
Sorry old AB timers. The good old days were over in 2015.
Coming from someone who is still working in a pandemic proof position. I’ll be paying my share..

#201 YouKnowWho on 04.03.20 at 10:20 pm

#88 Cecil the Centenarian

Yo! #88 Dale Jr., link the video if you’re going to comment on my comment!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfLtWQ3Kjwc

#202 Shawn Allen on 04.03.20 at 10:20 pm

#191 Smoking Man on 04.03.20 at 9:00 pm

What really sucks.

I’m not going to be around long enough to see if my predictions kill it..

Shit happens..

Love all you dogs…

**************************
That does suck big time. Very sorry to hear it. You, Smoking Man, were a big addition to this blog. Added greatly to the making the comments interesting and drew tons of responses.

I don’t know if your full story came out but but from what I understood you risked a lot to put out at times some pretty wild views. Brave. I respect that.

Stay with us as long as you can! We need both your predictions and the entertainment.

#203 WUL on 04.03.20 at 10:21 pm

#179 yvr_lurker on 04.03.20 at 8:24 pm
#121 and # 172
Bragg Creek
——————–
The area around Bragg Creek, Turner Valley and the Kananaskis is probably my favorite area east of the rockies. Terrific for hiking in Peter Lougheed park, great vistas once you get into the alpine and not the busloads of tourists that overwhelm Banff and Lake Louise. Peaceful, scenic, and the locals are great.

nailed it…nailed it…nailed it…

It’s paradise. I’ve spent thousands of hours in the area. Hunting, hiking, X-country skiing, camping, fishing, golfing…looking for cougars…. Hush! Keep it a secret!

My children can spend more time there now that they have lost their jobs. I’ll keep showing up at the coal face every morning and swing the nine pound hammer so they have something to eat.

WUL

M64Real Rotten Rodeo Rough Stock, AB

#204 Classical Liberal Millennial on 04.03.20 at 10:24 pm

#6 Classical Liberal Millennial on 04.03.20 at 3:27 pm
In today’s presser, they are saying the pandemic could last 18-24 months. They can’t possibly expect social distancing and shutdowns for that long…can they? And if so, how long before society revolts and simply decides to slowly wake up the economy with or without the government’s approval? After all, they can’t arrest everybody

——–

That’s why the military is coming to a neighbourhood near you in 2 weeks…

———

I’ll be back in 2 weeks to let you know you’re wrong.

#205 VicPaul on 04.03.20 at 10:24 pm

#46 When’s My EI Coming? on 04.03.20 at 4:40 pm

I applied for EI but since then crickets? ….

I’m just a hard working person, who can’t swing it for 12 to 18 months without work. No credit card debt, small savings but scared, so go easy on people like me.

*********

No worries brother – it’s people like you and me (and billions of others) that make up much of what gets done in this world. Strange days indeed…most peculiar momma.

M56BC

#206 Steve on 04.03.20 at 10:27 pm

Two years ago in Westbank I paid 2500$ a month rent driveway to driveway with the worst crack house outside of Rutland. I came home one day to find seven police vehicles blocking the street and all my nice neighbours face down in the gravel handcuffed. The only two AR-15’s the cops have around here were out getting some sun, and we weren’t allowed to go home for about an hour. Basically another grey overcast day in the rotting husk I grew up in called the Okanagan Valley. But think of it… 2500$ a month. There were two homeless women living in the shrubs by my front yard, and at least 24 people came and went from the drug house every day. We saw some totally hilarious stuff happen, like one of the creeps power launching a full sized quad onto himself, and then plowing it right through the back window of his truck. That was a good day, on a bad day, my fifteen year old got hit up by a drunk, high hooker right in our driveway. There was also a guy that seemed like he was dead in front yard. Pretty chill place. But 2500$ a month was a bit steep even to see my neighbours full ass hanging out of his jogging pants as he drunkenly beat the exhaust manifold on one of his side pieces beater ford ranger. I did what I had to do to look after my kids and wife. That place was the only hole we could find in this wasteland. Now I’m paying 1200$ a month for 600 square feet of 1960 sawdust walled heaven. It’s colder inside the house than it is outside thanks to some miracle of convection. Hey! I hope the landlords around here get dragged until their paper thin. Greedy currs.

#207 45north on 04.03.20 at 10:37 pm

Faron: do you take real estate reports from banks with a grain of salt?

here’s the quote:

RBC says the housing market across Canada will see a 30% sales drop this year, with lower prices.

operative word is “will” – future tense. It’s a get-out-of-jail-free card.

#208 45north on 04.03.20 at 10:38 pm

J: I own some commercial RE and here is what my tenants are experiencing. It’s an informal view of the current economic situation, but some may find it interesting.

it is interesting. You’re lucky to have the tenants you do.

#209 Stone on 04.03.20 at 10:39 pm

#186 John in Mtl on 04.03.20 at 8:46 pm

“Normal life may not be normal for a long while, but the pent-up desires will be huge, and take place in an atmosphere of public relief and historically cheap money. Governments at all levels will want you to spend your rear off in order to generate economic activity and sales tax revenue.” – Garth

And I would urge everybody to “vote with your wallet” – start buying locally or nationally made stuff. It will be of better quality and slightly more expensive but it will last longer. STOP BUYING CRAP FROM …..!

———

Completely agree.

#stopbuyingcrapfrom…

If it isn’t a hashtag yet, it should be…like yesterday.

#210 45north on 04.03.20 at 10:40 pm

Linda: What I’m wondering is whether the overall shutdown due to Covid-19 has allowed Canada to achieve its promised CO2 emission targets. Seriously. Because if it can be proven that this current situation has allowed that target to be met, that gives us a base line of what we’d have to do to achieve that goal long term. If this is what ‘giving a little’ looks like, I’d say we are going to have to find viable alternatives PDQ.

You’re right the current situation gives us a base line of what we’d have to do to achieve that goal – if you’re going to have this kind of reduction, you’re going to have this kind of cost.

The cost is unacceptable. The goal is unrealistic.

A realistic goal would be to keep emissions at present levels.

#211 Drinking on 04.03.20 at 10:40 pm

#200 Moses71

Well perhaps we will have to but you stating that you have lived here for ten years and you still do not understand as to why Albertan’s rebel against this action??? You just do not get it!!

To all the provinces that have a sales tax out there; are there finances any better? As a true Albertan we all know if you give them more they just spend more! That has always been our way of thinking; let’s keep them in line with what they have otherwise we will end up like Ontario! But that is not the point, the point of Albertas mentality is to try and live within your means; although with this younger generation it has completely failed. So now, I guess within the next year or two we will have a P.S.T. and it will make no difference whats so ever! I miss the old Alberta where common sense was a norm!

#212 45north on 04.03.20 at 10:41 pm

Ronaldo: With all the bank branches shutting down across the country I would expect that maybe the next run would be for CASH. Comes in handy if the power goes out or the ATMs run out.

merchants don’t want cash


Also, keep your tank fuelled up in case you need to make a quick getaway to your favourite isolated spot.

there are lots of isolated spots but nobody wants to go there

you can have your own fantasy crisis but this isn’t it.

#213 45north on 04.03.20 at 10:42 pm

once bit twice shy

Someone will list his home and the realtor will list it at the market rate. The owner will get anxious after 2 weeks and then he will drop the price, but not meaningfully. Over the next 2 months, as he experiences a recessionary market, he will drop his price significantly but not quite enough. He will find price discovery when someone making $40,000/yr decides that it might be worth putting in a stink bid … and it gets accepted.

Now, unfortunately, you are sitting in that same place and you are about to learn what comparable sales in the area means.

yep

#214 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.03.20 at 10:43 pm

I’m going to make a radical prediction here and say everything goes back to exactly the way it was in a couple months of returning to work.

It did with SARS, it did with H1N1, it will with the cold.

#215 Rogan Josh on 04.03.20 at 10:50 pm

#1 Kurt
#40 Death
#41 Lisa
#45 Incubus
#56 Alberta Boy
#195 Genesis II

There needs to be discussion of these ideas in the mainstream media.

#216 Stahom on 04.03.20 at 10:58 pm

Prepare your response for siblings, adult children, relatives who come for financial support due to their “unfortunate “ circumstances. Some may be worthy, some not so much. Charming memory of my Audi driving sister in AB real estate asking not so long ago why I’m driving a 7 year old Toyota, “a rental car” in her words.

A friend’s sister in law and husband recently appealed to the pensioned father in law because they are flat broke despite the trip to Cuba at Christmas that they “deserved”. These adult children are 50-ish…yikes.

#217 Terry on 04.03.20 at 11:07 pm

I’ll keep saying it again and again………….Shutting down our economies and locking people down was a HUGE mistake. The decisions to do this will go down in history as one of the BIGGEST BLUNDERS EVER in the 21st century. It took decades for everyone to recover from the shock of the Great Depression and this economic dislocation we all find ourselves in will also take decades to recover from. Just like in WW2………..”papers please”………. is this what we are going back to? It’s happening now! It sometimes seems like Covid-19 is a convenient disguise for an economic reset, taking away more of our civil liberties and putting us all down some notches. Just saying???

#218 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 04.03.20 at 11:08 pm

“In that vein, I now give you free access to all the infectious disease control experts, public health authorities, pandemic modelers and renowned epidemiologists in the comments section. Enjoy.”

Thank you for that brilliant introduction Garth!

The bottom line is we are all going to die someday.

#219 kc on 04.03.20 at 11:15 pm

#198 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.03.20 at 10:02 pm

#6 Classical Liberal Millennial on 04.03.20 at 3:27 pm
In today’s presser, they are saying the pandemic could last 18-24 months. They can’t possibly expect social distancing and shutdowns for that long…can they? And if so, how long before society revolts and simply decides to slowly wake up the economy with or without the government’s approval? After all, they can’t arrest everybody

——–

That’s why the military is coming to a neighbourhood near you in 2 weeks…

————

if you see the military be prepared for ww3…..

#220 Longterm on 04.03.20 at 11:18 pm

#100 NewWest on 04.03.20 at 6:03 pm

You must be a babe in arms. The original Hon’s was in Chinatown, ‘back in the day’ c. early 90s. Much more mainstream than Kent’s Kitchen with the tripe and rice deal for $3.

#221 BS on 04.03.20 at 11:21 pm

#143 Sold Out on 04.03.20 at 7:15 pm
Just a reminder, the pulp used to make 3M N95 masks comes from BC.

They’re busting their butts to keep 3M supplied, even after Dim Donnie’s ham-handed application of the DPA.

https://www.timescolonist.com/business/nanaimo-mill-churning-out-pulp-for-medical-masks-gowns-1.24106220

Per Adrian Dix:

Meanwhile, Dix said he was “disappointed” by news out of the U.S., that President Donald Trump has ordered 3M to stop exporting N95 masks to Canada.

But Dix said it would not be helpful to withhold pulp from B.C. mills that 3M uses to make those masks.

“This action is wrong. It’s wrong for them, it’s wrong for us,” he said. “We shouldn’t respond with retaliation. We should respond with calls to work together.”

That was fake news. Trump signed an order today which stated masks will be sent to Canada and Mexico from the US. In other words Trump helped Canada with the mask supply.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6146995664001#sp=show-clips

#222 TurnerNation on 04.03.20 at 11:31 pm

WHAT was I thinking? From Dec to Feb hammering my point. I had no idea exactly what would happen. But my intuition told me UN agenda 2021 was real and that they would get cracking. The tale of the tape is below.
(IMO we are done for. They can’t bring it on at once,it must be a slow drip. BK by Sept? We all fall down.)

#86 TurnerNation on 02.13.20 at 7:50 pm. I’ve been telling you guys, 2020-2021 will bring utter and unbridled chaos to Kanada. While our UN …

Jan 19, 2020 – #1 TurnerNation on 01.19.20 at 2:22 pm … (I’ve told you guys over and over watch into 2020-2021 they are speeding up this

Jan 26, 2020 – #33 TurnerNation on 01.26.20 at 5:54 pm. All the new guys are out this weekend. I’ve been pounding the table, that the 2020-2021 things will be moving SO fast.

Dec 2, 2019 – #6 TurnerNation on 12.02.19 at 3:28 pm … It is moving SO fast now into 2020-2021.

#102 TurnerNation on 02.01.20 at 11:17 am
Well folks I’ve been suggesting to Watchout, that 2020-2021 they will be ramping up world chaos like crazy.

#223 WUL on 04.03.20 at 11:32 pm

#191 Smoking Man on 04.03.20 at 9:00 pm

Love you right back, SM.

The world needs more Junior B “Hardrock Blueliners” who are deep thinkers.

Drop the mitts and throw the Dukes against whatever ails ya, Pardner.

Sincerely,

WUL

#224 Steven Nicolle on 04.03.20 at 11:37 pm

The world will not be the same after this. Until there is a vaccine if someone coughs in a restaurant everyone will make a run for it. People are spooked. No one will have jobs or money to revive the economy after this. Actually the people who lived paycheque to paycheque are the ones who kept the economy going. The gizzards who sit on their investments just wake up and look at their bank balance. This is no Fall comeback. Fall next year maybe. But hey we needed a reset so we got one. Now maybe prices will plummet so much that young people starting out may be able to afford a down payment on a house or a car. Ha!

#225 Ronaldo on 04.03.20 at 11:42 pm

#170 wallflower on 04.03.20 at 8:01 pm
#97 Ronaldo on 04.03.20 at 5:54 pm
and the bank run on cash you predict

just curious… what would YOU be spending your cash on? or using it for?
or rather, HOW… I mean who deals in cash?
—————————————————————–
Drug dealers, hookers, massage parlours, donations to street people. Use your imagination.

#226 TurnerNation on 04.03.20 at 11:43 pm

Are they getting ready to shut down all borders? Why not.
Effect on markets (….)

https://twitter.com/TravelGov/status/1245854753025736704
The Department of State urges Americans not to delay travel home. Transportation options may soon be unavailable
We urge US citizens who wish to return to the US to do so now, or be prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period.

#227 Soviet Capitalist on 04.03.20 at 11:51 pm

Garth, can you help me, please, with a question?
When inflation will surge to a point to make people protest in the streets, will the only tools available to fight it be: increase interest rates and sell all the bonds that BoC is currently buying?

#228 please share to everyone in Canada on 04.03.20 at 11:52 pm

Sorry to post but this must be shared to all Canadians include our PM
Trump and his 3m masks just burn me.
Anyway please tell everyone you know,
Canada is the only country in the world that makes a specialized pulp to produce masks including sole supplier of 3M
Read it here
https://www.vancouverislandfreedaily.com/business/nanaimos-harmac-mill-works-to-fill-doubled-pulp-order-for-medical-masks-and-gowns/

#229 Jager on 04.04.20 at 12:18 am

#191 Smoking Man on 04.03.20 at 9:00 pm

I’m saddened to hear of your condition. Your illness that was once rare is now growing at an alarming rate. It’s very troubling.

Whether by fate or otherwise it’s no small wonder that I’m still here. It was then that I learned to walk by faith (trust).

I remember Billy Graham being asked the following question on a radio program out of Buffalo. “What is it that’s surprised you the most about life?”

Remarkably to me at the time he replied the following:

“The brevity of life.”

So true…

#230 CL on 04.04.20 at 12:45 am

I don’t say much but you should be commended, Garth. I used to come here for your chiseled abs. Now I come here for your chiseled words of comfort that you provide here while we suffer through this economic suicide. Thanks for your words supported by your convictions.

#231 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.04.20 at 12:50 am

Yeah, it was called Robson Strasse in the 80’s.
Good old fashioned German fare : Schnitzel, Bratwurst and Saurkraut.
Those were the days, my friend.
We thought they never end.

#232 fishman on 04.04.20 at 12:57 am

Robson & Alberni Street. Most expensive $100/sq,ft & higher triple net rent in the city. All those Italian named stores selling expensive stuff to even more expensive women. Windows now boarded up by plywood splashed with fresh graffiti. Holt Renfrew anchored that shopping district. As I drove by I flashed back to the morning after the night Canuckleheads lost to Boston in game seven. Theres Francesco Aquilini coming out of Holt Renfrew trailing this blonde. A cross between Marilyn Munroe & Jayne Mansfield. No modern skinny bone wrack for this Italian. Both hands full of beautiful wrapped packages almost to his chin. Didn’t look fazed that his team had just lost the Stanley Cup. Now that my fellow bloggies is the way to face the agony of defeat. Or nowadays, the isolation of the quarantine.

#233 bdwy on 04.04.20 at 1:29 am

In that vein, I now give you free access to all the infectious disease control experts, public health authorities, pandemic modelers and renowned epidemiologists in the comments section. Enjoy.

————————
Best smile I’ve had all day!!! Thank you!!

yep, writing better than plumbing for those so gifted.

the wuflu has a long way to go to make a dent in this…
https://www.worldometers.info/watch/world-population/
(DO click the blue button “watch as we increase”)

i think it has no chance. in fact after watching that for a minute it’s starting to feel like we are the virus!

#234 Johnny Peede on 04.04.20 at 3:27 am

#2 Vanrent, the time is now obviously. Just not all at once. Incrementally, month by month? Quarterly? We don’t know the end date of Wuhan Bat Eater Virus, but we know it’s not ELE. I’m ready for a year, prepared for two or three. One thing I know, my young wife and the children will grow into these investments and buying stocks when there’s blood in the streets is a good strategy. This is my time, I put a lump of cash aside, I’ll be in my 70″s before that’s chewed through. By then I know the stocks I buy now will blossom for the wife, and many years from now the kids will inherit the benefits of compounding growth in industry core companies. I know Trudeau hates energy, but seriously, the debt is going to blow fanatics ideology out the door and industry will demand more energy to pay off the debt. Energy companies like CVE, SU or MEG are almost free right now. It’s stupid not to see this clearly. I buy because I believe this is not ELE. Patience is a virtue.

#235 The Real Mark on 04.04.20 at 4:01 am

So I guess Trudeau Sr. and Trudeau Jr. will both have the distinction of being Prime Ministers during periods of monetary instability.

Both will likely end up doubling the debt in their terms in office.

“Like father, like Son”.

I’m sure Andrew Scheer (and the Party) is silently dancing a jig that they lost.

“Look for an asset tax on estates, including the currently exempt principal residence.”

How much RE or stock equity will there really be once the deflation is done? Maybe windfall profits on gold and gold miners. I think the logical conclusion here is that the governments are going to be forced to engage in severe cutbacks of (real) compensation for their employees.

I’m reminded of a visit last summer to a national park’s park museum. In 1929, workers received what amounted to $50/month, plus room and board. By the time 1932 rolled around, the public workers had been reduced to compensation little more than room and board.

#236 Zebilf Gristenwoald on 04.04.20 at 4:02 am

Garth,

The 800 pound gorilla in the room that no one wants to address is how the world economy will operate after countries emerge from lockdown, even though the virus may still be lurking about. Some of the population will have “herd immunity” while others will still be waiting to attain it (or perish in the process unfortunately). How this affects various industries is yet to be seen. For instance airlines…will elderly passengers without immunity want to fly or even be allowed to? Will various other services be segregated between those with herd immunity and those without. Will people be required to carry a card showing their immune status or be implanted with an “immune status” microchip? Tough to want to invest into such uncertainty. It is clear that things will never be the same again

#237 crazyfox on 04.04.20 at 4:34 am

In that vein, I now give you free access to all the infectious disease control experts, public health authorities, pandemic modelers and renowned epidemiologists in the comments section. Enjoy. – Garth

Clearly these are arduous, exigent times. In absence of clear science, ancillary ersatz will have to suffice. :) One must be no doubt careful where one treads, as parlous footing in recalcitrant context can easily stub one’s toe!

There were a number of policy complaints I had earlier on that were addressed this week:

– The CDC has done an about face on masks. The U.S. government has recognized the error of its ways and has done a reversal on messaging. Masks, even cloth masks, are now advisable. “wear ’em if you got ’em”.

– The U.S. has forced corps like 3m to stop exports of PPE. This is bad for Canada and other nations, but necessary for the U.S. .

– The WH has leveled with the public somewhat, on the threat this virus poses projecting 100,000 to 240,000 thousand will die from the virus. Absent to my knowledge were estimated timelines which are critical in determining the thinking within the WH but they are at least conceding now that the number of infected will be in the millions. It would have been a continued disaster for the WH to minimize and downplay the dangers of Coronavirus so this reversal is more than welcome.

Even so, some crucial questions are not being asked. “why are we not using temp guns to scan temperatures”? There’s a fever going ’round, haven’t they noticed? It’s people with mild symptoms that are healthy enough to get around that are spreading this virus. Regardless of mild symptoms, most will run a temperature:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/covid-19-spreaders-with-mild-or-no-symptoms-may-be-contributing-to-pandemic-experts-1.4880737

There needs to be some kind of government policy on the use of temp guns/scanners specifically at grocery store settings and essential services. Amazon now requires it’s employees are temp scanned and wear masks indoors. When multi billion dollar corps adopt policies like this voluntarily, we should take notice. We need temp guns in indoor public places until the numbers suggest otherwise.

A conversation needs to happen concerning GPS cel tracking apps for infected people and it needed to happen 2 months ago. Like, any time would be nice. If governments have been asked by reporters in the past, things change as quickly as policies wearing masks, ask again. Governments across the world are not going to be able to shake the applied models that have led to success in nations like China, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong and GPS cel tracking apps of infected are in my mind, a necessary component.

These are not normal times. The public needs to be empowered to defend itself through masks, PPE, temp scans and cel apps designed for easy trace of ongoing chains of infection. As case numbers go up, the general public needs to know that everything that be done is being done not just by government but by each other to feel more safe and in control.

Finally, test and trace. As of April 1st, 1 million tests were completed in the U.S. to confirm 210,000 positive tests. This is far from near enough suggesting the numbers in the U.S. are significantly higher than what is being reported.

By contrast, Canada tested 250,000 people for 11,000 confirmed tests (April 1st stat). This is near 5x the testing per capita of the U.S., but still well below South Korea’s testing (443,000 for 10,156 confirmed cases, April 3rd stats).

Opening up economies can’t be done without wide scale testing. If we can’t find them, we can’t trace them and if we can’t trace them, we can’t stop this virus meaning it all comes back to testing, scanning for the most common mild symptom, i.e. fever followed by quarantines. We shouldn’t be shutting down entire economies to merely slow the spread, but to stamp out the virus entirely like China. Even near success with mostly open economies like South Korea and Singapore is enough. All else is a potential road to failure. Otherwise, we are cooking economies for some half assed attempt that will likely only blow up later in time.

The western world has been caught flat footed with supply, we know this, but it doesn’t have to be this way with intelligence. The messaging has to be truthful and on point, or the economy will only face more short term damage and long term risk.

#238 Wait There on 04.04.20 at 4:59 am

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-the-breakthrough-xi-jinping-has-been-waiting-for-and-hes-making-his-move/

NEVER TRUST THE COMMUNISTS.

#239 Wait There on 04.04.20 at 6:25 am

“What the polls are showing—surveys by EKOS Research among others—is that Canadians are scared witless. Canadians think they have a 50-50 chance of becoming infected. Sixty per cent say they are feeling serious stress, a feeling most acute among those under the age of 50.”

Macleans.

This is trouble brewing. This same group will be required to go back out first to revive the economy.

#240 earthboundmisfit on 04.04.20 at 7:00 am

Yes sir. September, at the earliest. Good lord willin’ and the creek don’t rise.

#241 Wait There on 04.04.20 at 7:12 am

#236, Crazyfox

First I fully believed that Aymptomatic transmission was in play in February. We all know that we already distance ourselves from sick people already especially during flu season. That means that the screening policy was essentially useless and in Canada it was based on the “honor” system. Well I always shake my head when I see how the honor system works today. It is anything but honorable.
A study done and published in New Scientists indicates that 86% of transmissions were likely asymptomatic. i,e, People showing no symptoms. The first case in Germany actually showed this. Did government not see this? OOPS they relied on WHO reports.

There is a study/ modelling that indicates that there are in fact a lot more people were/are infected but don’t know it. How much more…..up to 10 – 20 times more. If this is the case, then the death rates used in the modelling that the governments are using are widely inflated because of the hidden number of cases.

That essentially means that the test to determine how many people have already HAD Covid is critical to reopening the economy and this will have a HUGE impact our government leaders’ decisions. If the death rate drops by a factor of 10-20-30, that is HUGE.

#242 Wait There on 04.04.20 at 7:23 am

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

#243 Contractor Carl on 04.04.20 at 8:07 am

#225 Ronaldo on 04.03.20 at 11:42 pm
#170 wallflower on 04.03.20 at 8:01 pm
#97 Ronaldo on 04.03.20 at 5:54 pm

“just curious… what would YOU be spending your cash on? or using it for?
or rather, HOW… I mean who deals in cash?
Drug dealers, hookers, massage.”

How about contractors doing home renos? Biggest cash industry in Canada. Hookers and drug dealers are just pocket change by comparison…

#244 Toronto_CA on 04.04.20 at 8:09 am

If the lockdowns continue until summer, I think everyone should prepare for and expect massive civil unrest.

That’s going to up the social and economic harm considerably, especially if governments decide it’s in the best interest to bring the army in to keep people from going outside.

#245 Just anybody on 04.04.20 at 8:29 am

First two weeks of March saw housing sales spike in the GTA with prices peaking.

I expect new highs and sales going gangbusters once we get past covid. In the meantime and much like a lawn that has gone dormant and brown, nothing is wrong with it , it’s just waiting for the sun to shine again for it to grow green , higher and lush.

Nope RE bears, no death to RE. Just the opposite .

#246 Grim Reaper on 04.04.20 at 8:34 am

#228 Jager on 04.04.20 at 12:18 am
#191 Smoking Man on 04.03.20 at 9:00 pm

“I remember Billy Graham being asked the following question on a radio program out of Buffalo. “What is it that’s surprised you the most about life?”
Remarkably to me at the time he replied the following:

“The brevity of life.”

That is why we all need to stop and smell the roses before we end up fertilizing them…

#247 jo on 04.04.20 at 8:45 am

He says you can’t catch a virus

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OjrcMxlaa3w&list=PL50VqWgr-XoGeEzkUslMLa7lz3NWM7BAn&index=3&t=0s

#248 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 9:00 am

#238 Wait There on 04.04.20 at 6:25 am

“What the polls are showing—surveys by EKOS Research among others—is that Canadians are scared witless. Canadians think they have a 50-50 chance of becoming infected. Sixty per cent say they are feeling serious stress, a feeling most acute among those under the age of 50.”

Macleans.

———————

Huh. My life has never been so calm and unstressful. Maybe retirement would be this way.

Another lake fishing morning with my son, a little yardwork and continue building a new camp tipi in the afternoon. Take the dogs for a hike with the wife. An afternoon nap. Movie or Netflix tonight.

Do it again tomorrow and all week. It’s endless vacation!

#249 Sky on 04.04.20 at 9:01 am

I’ve seen this movie before. Many times and in many countries. Spoiler alert – It does not have a happy ending.

When the government shuts down the means of production, there are words for this. You know what they are. You’re just too scared to admit it.

Of course the politicians needed some help in order to achieve this – being universally loathed by the populace. So they hauled out the scientific technocratic elite in their white coats and frightening hazmat suits. Who then scared the bejesus out of everyone despite their shockingly inaccurate claims and predictions. Fait accompli.

What happened to the anti-government protests in Hong Kong or the gilet jaune in France? Quiet as church mice now. Who even remembers that Trump was impeached or that Pelosi tore up the State of the Union address 2 short months ago? Down the memory hole. Corona virus? Or perhaps more fittingly… Convenient virus?

Shut it down. Lock em up. No worries. Your friendly government will provide. Until it can’t. Or won’t.

And the so-called freedom loving democracies bought this crap. Hook, line and sinker. Just as they knew we would – as evidenced over 55 years ago in the famous Milgram experiments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=22&v=yr5cjyokVUs&feature=emb_title

https://www.simplypsychology.org/milgram.html

#250 Jack Rabbit Johannsen on 04.04.20 at 9:04 am

1 Kurt on 04.03.20 at 3:18 pm

“I am very annoyed with people questioning the hit the economy is taking from our response to COVID-19, but probably not for the reason you’re thinking of. Economic disruption KILLS.”

I would like everyone to watch the NFB’s video documentary on the life of Herman “Jackrabbit Johannsen”. It was done in 1975 when he turned 100. Yes, you read that right and then he went on to live to be 112 and cross country skied until the young age of 105. Actually the NFB is a great resource for all things Canadiana. Check their site out folks during these isolated Covid19 days. Here is my point…

In 1929 Jack Rabbit lost everything in the 1929 crash and ensuing Depression. Everything. He had been a successful businessman and lost everything. Everything. He was 54 years old at the time and went on to live another 58 years…
He explains in the video how he moved to a cabin in the Laurentians and began a simpler life that required very little money. While not everyone can do what Jackrabbit did, many of the lessons of his life can be incorporated in 2020. We have been brainwashed to believe in an ever increasing economy, which is as David Suzuki says, “a human construct that nature doesn’t give a damn about.”

Check out the Jackrabbit video here:

https://www.nfb.ca/film/jack_rabbit/

#251 oh bouy on 04.04.20 at 9:15 am

@#238 Wait There on 04.04.20 at 6:25 am
“What the polls are showing—surveys by EKOS Research among others—is that Canadians are scared witless. Canadians think they have a 50-50 chance of becoming infected. Sixty per cent say they are feeling serious stress, a feeling most acute among those under the age of 50.”

Macleans.

This is trouble brewing. This same group will be required to go back out first to revive the economy.
____________________________

Chinese state ‘news’ sounds exactly like FOX ‘news’

#252 Sue on 04.04.20 at 9:20 am

#172 Nonplused on 04.03.20 at 8:08 pm
Re mmmm double salted licorice..
Also available at the bulk barn in Cochrane. Ill be honest not the freshest stock, pretty sure im the only one eating it. So Kindly dont leave the scoop in my bin and no sampling please ;) I find it odd the place is still open with all of the open bins and scoops. Not a fan of the bins.

#253 Stephen Poloz on 04.04.20 at 9:26 am

#57 Jay on 04.03.20 at 4:53 pm

“Governments keep running deficit and going into debt However a certain percentage of the budget must go to interest payments. How does this work? Who is receiving the money paid through interest? who is the debt owed to exactly? If the answer to all of these questions starts or ends with “China”, we are in serious trouble.”

Folks you all need to take an Economics course 101. In short, we owe the money to ourselves with the exception of :

Foreign ownership of Canadian debt:

“From 2009-2010 to 2013-2014, the amount of the Canadian’s debt held by foreign investors passed from 15% to 27% with a peak at 30% in 2012-2013. Even if growing, this level is still lower than or comparable to most G7 countries in 2013-2014 (France, 64%, Germany, 62%, United States, 48%, Italy, 33%, United Kingdom, 29%, and Japan, 8%.”

But what is more important is that the debt is in Canadian dollars which our printing presses can pay in the click of a mouse…

If you want to know how the Bank of Canada creates money for the Federal government here is your link:

https://lop.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebsite/default/en_CA/ResearchPublications/201551E

#254 Bytor the Snow Dog on 04.04.20 at 9:38 am

@195 GenesisII-

You got right to the meat of the matter. What worries me even more that it seems the majority of the sheeple (like Crazyfox) want to continue to live in their Bubble Wrapped World™ and will support these draconian measures to curtail our freedom 100%…..because Coronavirus.

#255 Cecil the Centenarian on 04.04.20 at 9:38 am

#201 YouKnowWho on 04.03.20 at 10:20 pm
#88 Cecil the Centenarian

“Yo! #88 Dale Jr., link the video if you’re going to comment on my comment!”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfLtWQ3Kjw

My bad! Sorry chief and that is Ricky Bobby at his best!! Muchos grazias senor!

#256 Randy, Assistant Sunnyvale Trailer Park Supervisor on 04.04.20 at 9:43 am

#206 Steve on 04.03.20 at 10:27 pm

“Two years ago in Westbank I paid 2500$ a month rent driveway to driveway with the worst crack house outside of Rutland. I came home one day to find seven police vehicles blocking the street and all my nice neighbours face down in the gravel handcuffed..”

Sounds like Sunnyvale Steve! If you ever want to switch coasts, come on over to Sunnyvale. Ricky and Bubbles have a trailer next to their’s that is available…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpwZ5iZ_Pmo

#257 Tommy Douglas on 04.04.20 at 9:48 am

#191 Smoking Man on 04.03.20 at 9:00 pm

“What really sucks.
I’m not going to be around long enough to see if my predictions kill it..
Shit happens..
Love all you dogs…”

Hang in there Smokie! The blog dogs send their love. Thanks for all your comments over the years and fight the good fight. It ain’t over till it’s over and savour every minute with your loved ones. Hoping for the best for you!

#258 YouKnowWho on 04.04.20 at 10:16 am

Oh look, Small Business is being declared too big to fail.

Right.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-small-business-is-too-big-to-fail-ottawa-has-little-time-to-come-to/

This will be one of the biggest consolidations of small business revenue into big business revenue since you heard the letters www together for the first time and it wasn’t a stutter.

Plus, I don’t know how I will feel about restaurants for a month or two after this clears. Who knows how old the food they will be serving will be? …out of necessity perhaps, but still.

#259 YouKnowWho on 04.04.20 at 10:21 am

Why isn’t there reporting still about the true origin of this thing?

I think liability needs to be assigned in this case to the most likely source, a lab on Wuhan that let this “escape”.

#260 Tough Times Terry on 04.04.20 at 10:24 am

Folks remember that tough times don’t last but tough people do…

#261 Phylis on 04.04.20 at 10:27 am

#227 Soviet Capitalist on 04.03.20 at 11:51 pm That’s quite the question you posed. Must best estimate is 07.11.24 at 16:27.34, give or take 10 years, with a 32% confidence level (I used a climate change model). Not to worry, the co2 inputs to the model said we are done in, what is it now, 11 years.

#262 WUL on 04.04.20 at 10:38 am

Offered to bolster our resolve:

Justice Learned Hand:

“Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it … The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right; the spirit of liberty is the spirit which seeks to understand the minds of other men and women; the spirit of liberty is the spirit which weighs their interests alongside its own without bias.”

And:

“That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.”

WUL

M64Thinking About What Matters

#263 MF on 04.04.20 at 10:58 am

244 Just anybody on 04.04.20 at

Lol sure bud.

Don’t forget to apply for your “mortgage deferral”.

MF

#264 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 11:01 am

#249 Jack Rabbit Johannsen on 04.04.20 at 9:04 am

——————

Good story. Thanks!

Similar in some respects to one of my heroes: Dick Proennekke, who built a cabin in the Alaskan bush in his 50’s and kept detailed tecords:

https://youtu.be/hy-4NxJRxNQ

#265 Blog Dog du Jour on 04.04.20 at 11:31 am

So possibly 15,000 Ontarions will die over two years.

Another 200,000 will also die from all the standard causes.

#266 Barb on 04.04.20 at 11:37 am

Our niece is a flight attendant for Emirates air out of Dubai. She can’t get home to Vancouver, stuck in a hotel room, food brought in on order. Limited kitchen facility in her room. Receiving $400/mo from employer.

The reason she didn’t get out before borders were closed is due to a 14-day quarantine following a flight from USA.

Canadian consulate is beyond useless. Family is so worried, knowing Arabs’ penchant for relegating women as second class people. Puts a whole new spin on overseas jobs.

#267 BrianT on 04.04.20 at 12:02 pm

With all the squealing from the frightened children you would never know that approx 99.4% of all the Canadians who died over the last month had deaths unrelated to this virus. Take your eyes off the CBC and WAKE UP.

#268 Dharma Bum on 04.04.20 at 12:03 pm

On the bright side, I don’t think there will be a long wait time to get my snow tires off this season. I’ll probably schedule an oil change for the same visit. The miserable service dude might even smile at me this time. I’m sure he’s been lonely. Like the Maytag repairman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZHsxPEAUOI

#269 Don Guillermo on 04.04.20 at 12:18 pm

#263 Sail Away on 04.04.20 at 11:01 am
#249 Jack Rabbit Johannsen on 04.04.20 at 9:04 am
——————
Good story. Thanks!
Similar in some respects to one of my heroes: Dick Proennekke, who built a cabin in the Alaskan bush in his 50’s and kept detailed tecords

***************************************
Very good story until the hypocrite Suzuki name came up.

#270 DON on 04.04.20 at 12:23 pm

@Smoking Man

I am sorry to hear SM.

I hope for the best road ahead for you and your family.

My thoughts are with you.

Until then rage against the machine, my friend.

#271 Dharma Bum on 04.04.20 at 12:51 pm

Patience.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErvgV4P6Fzc

We all need some.

#272 Linda on 04.04.20 at 1:19 pm

#210 ’45’ – While I do not see oil & gas production becoming obsolete in the near future, I do think the world will find ways to reduce CO2 emissions while maintaining current lifestyles. There are researchers working on developing zero emission engines. I can’t help but believe that if we can put men on the moon, operate a space station, send rovers to Mars etc. that we can as a species find better, less polluting ways to live the lifestyles we live now. What is the point of having intelligence if we don’t use it to improve daily life?

#273 Just anybody on 04.04.20 at 2:15 pm

#262 MF on 04.04.20 at 10:58 am
244 Just anybody on 04.04.20 at

Lol sure bud.

Don’t forget to apply for your “mortgage deferral”.

MF
————

What mortgage ? Lol

#274 Dr V on 04.04.20 at 2:56 pm

249 Jack – enjoyed it. Thanks.

#275 Genesis II on 04.04.20 at 3:14 pm

@Crazyfox

An excerpt from your post above:

“A conversation needs to happen concerning GPS cel tracking apps for infected people and it needed to happen 2 months ago. Like, any time would be nice.”

Man, you are the Globalist’s dream sheeple. One thing I can say with absolute certainty is, “The Government is NOT your friend”. But if they can get you to carry out their ‘plans’ all on your own, that’s the ultimate victory.

I’ve done a lot of research on this, and continue to do so as new information keeps piling up. There have been several ‘reports’ of hospitals overflowing with sick people (Covid), in NY, Berlin, among other places; a few thinking locals arrive at the site to investigate for themselves and see nothing. They have RECORDED this and shared online for others to see that the MSM is making things up! Wake up brother! I don’t have all the answers but I question things that just don’t make sense. I encourage you and everyone else here to be skeptical of ‘news’. Being ‘skeptical’ by the way, only means to actually USE your brains. Brainwashing happens to all, if you let it.

Peace

#276 Morrey on 04.04.20 at 8:57 pm

@#7 JB

Today I and 2 budies looked at a couple of Condos in Vancouver. One has dropped from 490 asking in Dec. to <350 today. The other was discounted 50K. We have the financing in place and we will be purchasing within the next 1-2 months. We see potential and upticks! In a city like Vancouver Condos will always be in demand.

#277 NAGA on 04.04.20 at 9:26 pm

Well Gartho – its taken the Covid explosion to bring me back to commenting. I have been an astute reader for a long time. Cant remember when I last posted – different email. I have rebranded myself not sure its working.

The reason for commenting is twofold. 1 impacts on financial markets and 2. Impacts on RE post Covid say late 2021.

The infusion of $ by both govts and CB’s is historic. This time majority targets individuals and small business – even though its going to take some time to get the $ flowing.

My question is what is the consequence of this historic infusion of $? Is it Depression (don’t think so) or inflationary? (I think so).

If depression then for both Markets and RE = disastrous consequences.

If inflationary then RE should wins provided owners can withstand the bridge between now and the end of Covid sometime in 2021.

There will be lots of hurt for REITS and small landlords. and Banks. I am guessing T2 will enact an emergency law that foreclosures are not allowed for all sectors – somehow blank cheques will be issued to renters and residential mortgage owner.

Forget Gold in any scenario.

After Covid – 98% or so of us will survive – some richer some poorer – most the same – but there will be a new normal – I am not ready to make predictions just yet of what that may look like.

One thing is certain – interest rates heading more negative is almost guaranteed – free money will be showered for the next 12 to 18 months all of us need to find a way to leverage this once in a life time bonus and get on the roller coaster ride!

If T2 tries to Tax RE (principal residence plus 100% of investment properties) how will the other parties align – with T2 or Cons? and could the current Cons leader be the one the bring down T2 and be part of a huge resurrection?

Back to good 20 year old scotch now will read your reply tmr thanks

#278 Mel on 04.05.20 at 5:34 pm

Yes, let’s turn off all those ” fake news” medias. Turn on the Fox’s news. Yes, yes, you will receive truth, but nothing but the truth. Well, in my world ” FORGET IT!”

Considering the fact that the gates of hell will be opened again soon, we shall go out with all of our remaining credit cards, and finish the remaining balances. Sure, there will be pent up demand, but not so fast….. We shall be paying all of our deferrals. You know, rents that were not paid, credit cards balances on hold, income taxes….. and the rest.

So, money might be cheap to the banks, but not so much to the rest of us. Paying back will be the priority for most.

#279 BigAL on 04.06.20 at 8:49 am

Why all the hate toward condos? Unfortunately high-rise housing is the only way to house a growing population in large urban areas. Look at cities like Tokyo, NYC, Hong Kong- do you think people in those cities scoff at living in a high-rise? It’s the only option for most people. People have been living in tight quarters among others for decades in those cities. People on this blog make it sound as if Toronto and Vancouver are some ‘real estate/economic/social’ experiment that has never been seen before. Nonsense. People will continue to live in condos out of necessity. Just like the poor live in crappy, out-dated, dangerous rental apartments in Rexdale, Scarborough, Jane/Finch, Regent Park because they simply have no other choice. Young professionals and small families will choose condos out of convenience(who the hell wants to sit in traffic for 2-3 hrs commuting in traffic everyday?) and cost(who the hell can afford a house in Toronto anymore?). Retirees will still downsize their homes for condos because who wants to deal with the upkeep of a house when they’re older and how else are they going to cash out the equity they’ve had sitting in their homes all these years? Condos are going nowhere. They will be an important part of the future of Canada and you are a fool if you can’t see that. Sure, prices may come down for a bit if this economy continues to stagnate for an extended time but so will houses. Once the economy picks up again and houses go back to their ridiculous status then condos will also shoot back up. People will always demand somewhere to live and people will choose the option that fits their budget, even if said budget is actually greater than most experts would advise. Let’s face it- most people in Toronto or Vancouver DO NOT have the budget to purchase a house and so the next best thing is a condo. It’s a choice that they can’t really control. The high-rise is the future of cities in Canada. Toronto will look like NYC and Vancouver will look like Hong Kong. It’s only a matter of time.