Grasshoppers

Tens of thousands of Canadians are out of the country after vacationing. Most are stranded now. No flights. Closed borders. And a mess of them are running out of money. Maxed credit cards. No savings. No reserves. About to be tossed from hotel rooms they cannot finance.

Ottawa is bailing them out. The holiday folks are being given $5,000 loans to pay for lodging and food.

As detailed here yesterday, up to a million tenants have indicated they cannot pay rent. How many withheld payments yesterday is unknown. But May 1st won’t be any better. No savings. No reserves.

Governments are bailing them out with a $2,000-per-month CERB payment. Applications open Monday. The web site will be flooded, mercilessly. Meanwhile claims for EI have been at unheard-of levels. More than historic. Off the charts. People are desperate for money. No savings. No emergency funds.

In the last seven days alone over 60,000 homeowners besieged a single bank asking for mortgage payment deferrals. Multiply that by five and you can see what’s happening – a quarter million people a week who have houses but lack the money to pay for them. No savings. No contingency. No funds. Just debt.

This week came word half the businesses in Edmonton will soon fold. A major hotel in Halifax has reduced its staff from over 100 to ten. Occupancy in Toronto major’s hotels is less than 5%. Restaurant revenues have declined 100%. Says the Canadian Chamber of Commerce: “We are very concerned that without a significant increase in the assistance made available to businesses to keep their employees on the payroll, we are going to see massive numbers of layoffs and tens of thousands of small businesses going out of business entirely. It will mean that when we come out the other side of the tunnel there won’t be a business for employees to go back to.”

Government’s bail-out will cost $71 billion as it underwrites 75% of payroll costs. But businesses fret they cannot come up with the other 25% to qualify. There are calls for a hundred per cent subsidy. No retained profits. No cash flow, no business. No contingency.

The latest Nik Nanos survey finds one in five people are likely to miss a major payment this month – mortgage, rent or credit card. Among those under 34, the number jumps to almost a third. No rainy day or emergency fund. No plan. Paycheque-to-paycheque.

In response, government will be increasing spending as never before and is on track for a deficit of $180 billion in a single year – 220% above what Conservatives coughed up to get through the 2008-9 crisis. Almost all of this money will go directly to individuals. Opposition leaders say it’s too little, too slow. Parliament is coming back to authorize even more spending.

Yes, unprecedented times. Nobody thought two months ago the economy would be turned off. In fact a lot of us – perhaps the majority – believed adversity would never come. We were immune. There was no reason to be ready for it. So we were not. What we made, we spent. What we lacked, we borrowed. What we wanted, we bought.

Does it sound elitist, smug and unsympathetic to talk about debt and financial promiscuity at a time like this?

You bet. So not a single leader dares do it. Certain. Political. Death. Government’s avowed role now – after preventing people from working, paying their bills and supporting their families – is to paper it all over with borrowed billions. In the next three months there’s no option. Let ‘er rip. But the long-term consequences of our collective profligacy will be, well, Biblical.

Come September, Dog willing, we’ll all be back at it. Remaining stores and businesses will be open. A few more planes flying. Brave people traveling. Offices functioning. Houses being shown, bought and sold. Financial assets restored. Double-digit unemployment nibbled lower as the recession recedes. The subsidies, grants, loans, gifts and deferrals will be trailing away. But federal government debt will be higher by as much as 30% – in less than a year. Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio will crest 100%. The next budget could usher in toe-curling ‘emergency’ tax increases. Ironically, those who had savings, reserves, emergency funds, retained profits or prudence will be in the crosshairs.

This episode’s painful. Scary. Terrifying. A virus 95% of victims recover from has nonetheless created public panic. Media has convinced the bulk of the population they’re at imminent risk of death.

Overwhelmed health care workers have emerged as heroes. Thank you, thank you.

May every deceased patient and their family rest in our thoughts and hearts. This is awful. Loved ones were swept from you in a storm. Undeserved and tragic.

But when this is done, Canada, we need to have a serious talk.

 

375 comments ↓

#1 Mauro R. on 04.02.20 at 12:50 pm

All I can say is… WOW

#2 NFN_NLN on 04.02.20 at 12:53 pm

Garth,

Sorry to interrupt your virus pandemic blog, but I have an actual financial question regarding US equities.

If I have CDN cash and want to invest in US markets via ETFs is there any advantage/disadvantage to purchasing in CDN or USD dollars.

Example:
1. Convert CDN$ to USD$ and purchase SPY (for example)

2. Keep CDN$ and purchase VUN.TO (for example)

I didn’t notice fluctuations in VUN.TO when the CDN$ tanked? Shouldn’t VUN.TO roughly track SPY but deviate based on currency?

Does it make more sense to convert to USD$ directly and buy USD$ ETFs or to buy them through CD$ ETFs? Would this at least shelter you from exchange fees in/out?

#3 Caledondave on 04.02.20 at 12:53 pm

I have a 10 foot x 10 foot tent in the backyard which is a great Airbnb vacation. Ground is a bit wet. Only $100 a night.

Also phyrst

#4 E on 04.02.20 at 12:53 pm

Garth, you’re one of the nation’s most loyal sons, having served most of your life. How would you, an economist and patriot, propose to deal with the crushing debt?

#5 Keen Reader on 04.02.20 at 12:55 pm

Seriously considered cancelling our trip in Jan, still went then worried about anticipated travel restrictions, until safely home. Hard to imagine people were still heading out on Spring Break, then crying for help to return home… Yep, the many government largesses will eventually cost dearly.

Anyhow, increasingly bummed-out these days. Hated being forced by my employer to burn-off accumulated vacation days, to cover our mandated shutdown; worse now, with no end in sight. Relatives working at two different hospitals are bored, reporting big drops in patient numbers, elective surgeries postponed, etc. New regional travel restrictions were just issued, so harder to get out in nature for a bit of fresh air.

Meanwhile, our leaders are killing the economy based on worst-case fears. The low risk to working-age people does not warrant the extreme measures being imposed. Yes, older and immuno-compromised folks are more likely to die if infected, thus require additional protection. Still, no one’s life is so priceless as to bankrupt one’s own family and impose financial hardship on future generations. I’m all for flattening the curve, but with reasonable and effective measures.

As shown in Korea, widespread testing and extensive use of masks was enough to regain control. Any mask is better than no mask; even a bandana will reduce the spreading of virus-containing droplets. The point is reducing the viral load during exchanges between people, not 100% individual protection. Until enough people become immune (exposed or vaccinated), let’s keep bars closed, parties banned, etc, but allow people back to work, requiring businesses to respect the 2-m rule (or use alternative measures). Enough insanity!

#6 Yukon Elvis on 04.02.20 at 12:58 pm

And don’t try to trick old people. We know stuff.

https://youtu.be/imy1px59abE

#7 Roial1 on 04.02.20 at 12:59 pm

Well. got our new dog yesterday. She’s a beauty. 75lb. of companionship but more to come as she is only a year old.
nothing like training a new dog to be your friend and companion while isolated from the “bug”.
My advice in the Panic-demic, train a dog. Will get your mind off any problems.
All the best Garth.

#8 Dogman01 on 04.02.20 at 1:02 pm

So I hope this time, that when Government bails out the businesses it gets a share so that both loses and gains are shared.

In the last bail-out it was socialized loss and privatize gain.

In the immortal words of Megadeth –

What do you mean, “I don’t support your system”?
I go to court when I have to
And, what do you mean, “I don’t pay my bills”?
Why do you think I’m broke? Huh?
If there’s a new way
Oh, I’ll be the first in line
But it better work this time

If I don’t see a change, I will join the Grasshoppers as they seem to be the winners eh?
Moral Hazard and a Debt Jubilee!

#9 Fred on 04.02.20 at 1:07 pm

Cats rarely bounce over 20%. This give you a nice taste of what is to come, even if a sell-off intervenes. For a dead-cat bounce, the feline must be deceased. This one’s just pissed. – Garth

……………

opps;

As the coronavirus, or COVID-19, wreaks havoc on the U.S. economy, more than 66 million jobs across sales, production, and food preparation services are at “high risk” of layoffs, according to a St. Louis Federal Reserve economist.

Using 2018 occupational data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) detailing 808 occupations, the St. Louis Fed’s Charles Gascon found that 66.8 million people — 46% of working Americans — are employed in these occupations that are at “high risk” of layoffs.

going to be tough for folks who thought this was the ‘flu’

#10 No hand outs! on 04.02.20 at 1:08 pm

There should be no hand outs to those that have been financially irresponsible. Any help should come in the form of a loan – even if it’s zero interest. I have paid hundreds of thousands in taxes over the years and have lost a few lambos in the markets and no one is offering me anything!

#11 belly rubs on 04.02.20 at 1:09 pm

Ah, September, the air is brisk in the morning, ochre hues take hold in the foliage, and canucks start lighting fires along the border to deter invading hordes of scavangers. Actually, that’s in the plot of my dystopian fiction I started penning a few years ago. So, of course, I went to cash. Bought my own bs. Bought a farm up north. Loaded up on beans, bullion, and chainsaws. However, in my story, it wasn’t a pandemic. The trigger was a corrupt, debt-based fraud called an “economy” that set things off. Welcome to my fantasy world.

#12 Emile on 04.02.20 at 1:19 pm

> Media has convinced the bulk of the population they’re at imminent risk of death.

This. And they should be ashamed of themselves.

#13 BLTandfries on 04.02.20 at 1:20 pm

Speaking of grasshoppers, guys make sure you’re reviewing your prepping stock. Earlier this week I did an ammo tally, turns out I have several thousand rifle rounds but only twenty shotgun shells. Dunno what I was thinking when those are probably more important in a food shortage.

#14 BLTandfries on 04.02.20 at 1:23 pm

“My advice in the Panic-demic, train a dog. Will get your mind off any problems.”

100%, we’re doing that also, getting a new pupper in about a week. With the increase in break-ins consequent to the crumbling of society, can’t have too many dogs, and as you say, there’s nothing else to do right now anyway!

#15 Don Guillermo on 04.02.20 at 1:28 pm

Maybe some positive news today. Ryan’s prediction during Garth’s Investments Client Call March 31 may have nailed it.

Today’s market news reflects behind scenes talks with Trump, Putin and KSA were/are happening. Hope it keeps up.

Thanks Turner Investments for sharing the call. Very informative.

#16 GAV on 04.02.20 at 1:30 pm

Remember the fanatic and irrational Liberal types on this blog who defended Trudeau’s deficit spending of $20B/yr (during good times) by comparing it to Harper’s $50B during the financial crisis?

Sort of puts Liberal thinking into perspective.

Enjoy your $100 per loaf of bread.

#17 Palpha on 04.02.20 at 1:30 pm

I am a health care worker and going to comment about wearing masks. This is my personal opinion and in no way reflects my position as a health care worker.
Taiwan ( population 23 million ) has less infected people than city of Vancouver. The Taiwanese all wear masks. Wearing a mask will not protect the wearer of the mask unless it is worn correctly and put on and taken off correctly.
Most spread is by droplets and as such a simple ( cloth reusable ) mask will do. It protects others from you! We tell people to isolate when they are symptomatic but by then a lot or most of spread has already happened.
The only time you have to wear a N95 mask is when you are exposed to virus when it is aerosolized ie in very fine droplets. That scenario is when we do airway interventions like putting a breathing tube down your trachea to put you on a ventilator. This is typically done by anesthesiologists, emergency doctors and intensivists and of course their supporting staff like respiratory technicians and the nurses. We need the N95 not you. So unless you intend to do mouth to mouth breathing on someone at your next Costco visit you do not need a N95 mask. Give them to your hospital and make yourself a few re usable cloth masks. Putting them on is easy. Take them off carefully without touching it on outside and wash them in your washing machine.
It will give you protection from droplet spread and may remind you not to touch your face. Most importantly it will help prevent others from your droplets if you are a asymptomatic carrier.
Thanks Garth for doing a great job about informing people on the financial aspect of things. My balanced portfolio is down 5.5% I have a fairly substantial investment account, drive a modest car and yes I rent and love it.

#18 Megaman on 04.02.20 at 1:31 pm

People selling masks and handsan got busted yesterday in Richmond bc and yet just slapped with a fine most likely not from Canada instead of putting them in jail and give them the death penalty teach them a f in lesson

#19 Borden Renter on 04.02.20 at 1:32 pm

“Ironically, those who had savings, reserves, emergency funds, retained profits or prudence will be in the crosshairs.”
———————-

Garth, what form do you believe this vengeance on the prepared will take?

Will they lower TFSA or RRSP contribution limits? Maybe axe the TFSA entirely?

It’s crazy to see how this is all going. In ’08 they bailed out the banks and large corporations. In ’20 they’re bailing out corporations and every individual with a pulse and no money. In some ways we should have seen this coming. We’ve had things so good for so long, people can no longer be expected to deal with the consequences of their actions or hard times and expect big daddy government to foot the bill.

What’s a saver to do?

#20 Cto on 04.02.20 at 1:33 pm

Yeah,
yet I didnt take a penny, not will I, that 200 billion dollars of debt,… has now become MY debt!
Social communists!!!!

#21 Marco on 04.02.20 at 1:34 pm

Serious talk, with whom? All I can see is BUM.

#22 conan on 04.02.20 at 1:37 pm

Experts are now saying that Covid 19 is spread from breathing. A lot of people with Corona have no symptoms. The walking Corona invasion.

Normal breath – 2 foot spread
talking- 5-10 foot spread
singing- 10 -20 foot spread
yelling- 20-25 foot spread

Once the health workers are taken care of, everyone will get a mask. Scarves work well while everyone is waiting.

#23 AntMan on 04.02.20 at 1:40 pm

Mr Turner: Would you care to speculate on what this may mean for capital gains and dividends outside of registered accounts?

#24 physicist on 04.02.20 at 1:42 pm

Garth,

Any thoughts one invests now to position for the recovery with increased taxes, etc. forthcoming? Use tax shelters (TFSA, RRSP) of course, but any other suggestions?

Thanks again for all you do.

#25 Damifino on 04.02.20 at 1:44 pm

No savings. No reserves.

Although you’ve been on about it for years, I’m certain it brings you no joy to have been proven 100% correct.

I have savings. I have reserves. It makes me happier than if I didn’t. But I’m still not very happy.

#26 NFN_NLN on 04.02.20 at 1:47 pm

Pandemic Idiom of the Day:

Pyrrhic Victory:
A Pyrrhic victory is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat. Someone who wins a Pyrrhic victory has also taken a heavy toll that negates any true sense of achievement or damages long-term progress.

(Thanks for answering my financial question, back to the regularly scheduled pandemic fluff.)

#27 Deano on 04.02.20 at 1:47 pm

Hi Garth, if you haven’t mentioned this already, let’s talk about the companies that took their profits over the past decade and plowed them into share buybacks. Then they come knocking on the Federal Gov’s door asking for a bailout. We can malign individuals all we want (and yes, it is partly their fault, but let’s be honest, it’s not like wages have kept up with anything in the past 30 years), but let’s keep the corporate socialists on the front burner, shall we?

#28 not 1st on 04.02.20 at 1:49 pm

FOMO should be short for no hope. Guess that outback holiday in Peru and the Instagram posts aren’t as important as coming back to a place to live and a job. Oh well.

If deficit control is out the window, then the talk should move to economic expansion because its our only hope. How many major resource projects died because of Trudeau and his green cabal. Sure would be nice to have those at the ready when we come out.

Canadas federal debt is now approaching 1T and another 1T in provincial debt, 2.2T in consumer debt, probably an equivalent number in mortgages.

There is no way out of this but default.

#29 under the radar on 04.02.20 at 1:54 pm

#331 Yesterday
Cressford Recievership

ZERO to do with current crisis. Developer was in default because of cost over runs , construction liens and lying about their equity in the project.

#30 Mattl on 04.02.20 at 1:56 pm

“But when this is done, Canada, we need to have a serious talk.”

I agree, and that conversation can’t just focus on personal finances. Consumerism is the engine that drove markets higher, and that consumerism was fueled by gov’t and private sector backed lending schemes.

And large business clearly wasn’t prepared for an event like this either, the business bail outs will likely dwarf the ones for individuals.

And yes, those of us that did save will get to pay for the individuals and businesses that didn’t.

#31 Sask to AB on 04.02.20 at 1:56 pm

Thanks for your posts.
They are so appreciated.
Something to look forward to each day.

F57AB

#32 oh bouy on 04.02.20 at 2:00 pm

‘Media has convinced the bulk of the population they’re at imminent risk of death.”

Truly sad and sickening on their part.

#33 YouKnowWho on 04.02.20 at 2:06 pm

DYK – 98% of people will die in their life. The darkness is creeping toward you if you know it or not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfLtWQ3Kjwc

2020 Crude death rate will be 7.7 per 1000. Roughly 60m people will die this year due to having lived.

Just a little perspective for you as you ponder the 50K that died for the Covid flu to date, representing 0.08% of this predicted rate. Spare a thought for the other 99.92% dying this year due to life or non Covid causes. Is one life more important than another because the news talks about it?

This concludes your daily dose of desensifectant.

I fear we’re going to come out much sell sensitive to death on the other side of this. Is that good or bad?

#34 Handsome Ned on 04.02.20 at 2:07 pm

We all know this Canadian classic: “the old cook came on deck, he said fellas its too rough to feed you. At 7pm a main hatchway caved in. He said fellas, its been good to know ya.”

Continuing on a nautical theme; we are on an ocean liner that scimped on lifeboats and life jackets because it was deemed unsinkable. When it hit the ice berg the first class passengers and captain were quietly lowered on lifeboats. When the general alarm sounded it came apparent that there was only enough life jackets for a third of the passengers. The people with jackets were smug, saying that you should have paid attention to the safety briefing and got a cabin close to the life jacket stations. Some even said, have fun treading water all night.

When everyone had to jump, the ones without jackets drowned immediately. Many in life jackets were sucked into the propellors, the ones still floating died of hypothermia in ten minutes pleading to pulled on the lifeboats. Maybe some of you have reserved seating on the lifeboats. Old Ned has a lifejacket but he will never scold those without. It is nighttime, the water is frigid and the waves 20 feet high.

A follow up to the wreck: The captain when asked why he abandoned ship, said “he could better direct the rescue from safety”. The first class passengers got a full refund.

#35 down and out on 04.02.20 at 2:14 pm

You saying Brad Lamb lead me wrong on my 20% return on the condo .

#36 R on 04.02.20 at 2:14 pm

“Ironically, those who had savings, reserves, emergency funds, retained profits or prudence will be in the crosshairs.”

———————-
Maybe not now, but soon, can you suggest some methods to avoid being caught in the crosshairs?

#37 Deplorable Dude on 04.02.20 at 2:14 pm

The Canadian Government is refusing to release it’s pandemic models. Provincial daily briefings are essentially useless, they give no context. Might as well just be telling us daily flu stats.

The US’s public pandemic model is total garbage.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

Prediction model today estimated 135,000 beds in use.

Actual……31,000. (https://covidtracking.com/data)

Total garbage.

And we’ve shut the planet down for this. Insanity.

Btw….still believe all those global warming models folks?

#38 Dave on 04.02.20 at 2:15 pm

This blog has been talking about Debt for years. Every year we are on the brink so how is it that we can now spend 220% more then 2008 and still keep chugging along?
Shouldn’t there be a start to a long term recession in fall even when life starts to get back to normal?
Shouldn’t banks interest rates go sky high for mortgages along with higher down payments?

Many of the European countries were on the cusp of financial ruin…Italy in particular was in bad shape and now the economy should be RIP? Or does the country hand over all assets to IMF?

#39 S on 04.02.20 at 2:17 pm

Having said all that do you still feel that those who advocated holding gold as part of their investment, especially physical metal, were misguided?

Yes. – Garth

#40 Oracle of Ottawa on 04.02.20 at 2:25 pm

The markets have been up recently. I don’t think everyone has digested the repercussions of what we’re going through. We don’t know how long this will last. It’s going to take businesses a period just to get up and running. Most people who start back to work will not be spending but paying off debt. This is not going to be a V recovery in the markets. We would be fortunate with a U.

#41 45north on 04.02.20 at 2:27 pm

Does it sound elitist, smug and unsympathetic to talk about debt and financial promiscuity at a time like this?

You bet. So not a single leader dares do it. Certain. Political. Death. Government’s avowed role now – after preventing people from working, paying their bills and supporting their families – is to paper it all over with borrowed billions. In the next three months there’s no option. Let ‘er rip. But the long-term consequences of our collective profligacy will be, well, Biblical.

this is your time Garth

you saw that to be a politician you had skate around the truth – so you moved out of politics and for the last ten years you talked about debt and financial promiscuity. Every single day.

so the whole political process right now is a little silly. They’re all silly – Liberals, Conservatives, Dippers – they’re all just skating around.

The question is do they keep skating? Well yes probably but your blog makes them look silly and it makes it harder for them to keep skating.

#42 farmers need rain on 04.02.20 at 2:28 pm

Hi Garth followed you for a long time never commented before
Some numbers I have been thinking about
2.2 million EI claims last 2 weeks that equals 217 jobs lost for each confirmed case of Covid 19 today 10,161
cancer death in country yearly per million 2251
smoking related deaths per million yearly 1200
opioid deaths per million 397 yearly
flu deaths per million per year 94
car deaths per million per year in Canada 78
131 Covid 19 deaths in Canada today equals 3.48 per million
10161 infections stated on the news this morning
270 per million Canadians infected
I farm and have run 2 other businesses sold one 4 years ago the other one is cu put Covid
trying to decide if i should put a crop in this year or not
have most of last years crop and some of the years before crop on hand. poor crop last 2 years and poor prices ,sales contracts broken because of rail blockade
earlier this year was told buy grain buyer delivery options limited until july grain is moving now, supply chain for crop inputs still functioning I am fortunate no debt . farmers in central and northern Alberta have crop that was not harvested due to weather last year

#43 SunShowers on 04.02.20 at 2:29 pm

Worker bailout:
The choice between EI and the CERB is not sufficient, as I pointed out yesterday. Being able to combine the two would be enough to allow for workers to go forward with business as usual.

Business bailout:
Even a 100% wage subsidy wouldn’t be sufficient…since there is no business that I can think of whose sole expense is wages. There needs to be a subsidy that would allow them to pay their fixed expenses such as rent and utilities.

#44 Trojan House on 04.02.20 at 2:31 pm

Somehow I think the wool has been pulled over our eyes. I’m always somewhat skeptical anyway but I can only look at the stats being provided by the government via the MSM. Canada is standing at around 10,500 cases. That is about 0.00027% of the population (37,500,000 as of 2019). From what I’m led to believe and from what I’ve heard from healthcare officials is that this virus would multiply exponentially. So in my simple mind, we should be in the high tens of thousands or low hundreds of thousands by now (it’s been at least 2 months since the outbreak).

So, that can only mean that shutting the economy down, closing non-essential businesses and asking us to “social distance” is working…OR…we are being fed, once again, a big fat lie for reasons I can only imagine wearing a tin foil hat.

Whatever the case may be, I think Garth is bang on. The method they chose to “contain” this virus may wreak more havoc than the virus itself. And regardless if you’re a ‘social distance warrior’ or a ‘virus denier’ this is something we will all have to come to terms with.

#45 Sail away on 04.02.20 at 2:32 pm

#14 BLTandfries on 04.02.20 at 1:23 pm

“My advice in the Panic-demic, train a dog. Will get your mind off any problems.”

—————–

100%, we’re doing that also, getting a new pupper in about a week.

With the increase in break-ins consequent to the crumbling of society, can’t have too many dogs, and as you say, there’s nothing else to do right now anyway!

—————–

Yes! Never will the following break into my house:

Grouse
Pheasants
Chukar
Quail
Ducks
Geese
Rabbits

People are always welcome. Especially if they bring a treat.

#46 Lost...but not leased on 04.02.20 at 2:34 pm

Dolce Vita:

Not trying to get int p*ssing match…I feel bad that Italians are being lied to.

When I watch video of vacant streets in your beautiful country (we’ve been to Rome)and your politicians threatening their own citizens with Flamethrowers…I cringe.

All the best…

#47 Lost...but not leased on 04.02.20 at 2:43 pm

Future ?
Possible scenarios…

My late father told me that as WW2 refugees, his family of 7 were holed up in a rectory in southern Austria for 5 years.

After Great Depression WW1…..many mansions in Vancouver’s Shaugnessy area were converted to rooming houses.

My guess 2020 ?
…. is that the economy will never return to what it was, unemployment and poverty will be off the charts, and the gov’t may declare martial law and your McMansion turns into a rooming house.

#48 Blair on 04.02.20 at 2:46 pm

Is it possible to have a serious talk with the calibre of politicians these days?

#49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 2:48 pm

@#33 Handsome Ned

My my, and I though the Academy Awards were over.

Well, if we’re going with your analogy of the sinking ocean liner and the “1st class” ( I assume you are insinuating “the rich”) being lowered and then the rest of the passengers being tossed overboard in a cruel sea wearing moldy lifejackets……

Dont forget …if your analogy is to be accurate…… only 1.5 % of the passengers die…….and they are from all income groups…. rich and poor…..

#50 leebow on 04.02.20 at 2:49 pm

What moral hazard?

#51 jsto on 04.02.20 at 2:56 pm

Well, I just heard from the Vancouver Real Estate Board that fees and monthlies are to remain in place as they are… On-line courses costing exorbitant amount are still to be taken at this time… despite no income and no sales… Simply great! Things have come to be so expensive that paycheque to paycheque seems to be the only viable strategy…

#52 Trojan House on 04.02.20 at 2:59 pm

#35 R on 04.02.20 at 2:14 pm

“Maybe not now, but soon, can you suggest some methods to avoid being caught in the crosshairs?”

Yeah, a 12 gauge.

#53 James on 04.02.20 at 3:02 pm

PLEASE Mr Turner, can you write a column (or more) for those of us who have acted prudently for decades and can expect to be “in the cross hairs” when the recovery comes and the debt burden comes down?

It is truly appalling to think that those of us who have worked so hard and sacrificed so very much in order to be (better than) debt free might be expected to pay for the collective profligacy of so many many greater Greaterfools!

Your thoughts/ideas are urgently requested.

Thank you.

#54 Figmund Sreud on 04.02.20 at 3:07 pm

Department: ‘if pigs fly with their tails forward’

“Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!” [… bold added for emphasis]

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245720677660925952

… but I digress grossly from today’s main theme, sorry.

Best,

F.S. -Calgary, AB.

#55 SG on 04.02.20 at 3:08 pm

Anyone who has lost their job should want to take advantage of deferring their mortgage payments whether they have savings or not – prudent risk mitigation. Secondly – even a $200B Fed deficit with another $100B thrown in for post Corona stimulus purposes, we are in better shape deficit wise than at the end of WW2. The real issue is how big will our economy be coming out of this, and are we now dealing with structural deficits ( unless cuts, taxes to mitigate).

#56 Okay another Story on 04.02.20 at 3:17 pm

Yikes do not like this post, but the truth is hard to swallow.
Anyway let’s have a smile
We had a run on hand sanitizers, masks, and toilet paper.
And now drum role please, general manger at Canadian Tire told me there is no no home gym equipment in the stores shelves are bare.
Too funny, cannot pay the rent but can buy gym equipment.

I guess after you wrote this blog many of us with savings will blow it before the tax man take it away.
I know your still positive on a rebound, bu tit sounds dire!

#57 Yukon Elvis on 04.02.20 at 3:17 pm

#25 NFN_NLN on 04.02.20 at 1:47 pm
Pandemic Idiom of the Day:

Pyrrhic Victory:
A Pyrrhic victory is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat.
…………………

So what ? You should see the other guy.

#58 Overheardyou on 04.02.20 at 3:17 pm

Honestly, this makes one wonder why save and invest when the government will always be there to back you up. Plus, when they up taxes it will be on the ones who worked hard and saved anyway. The rest who didn’t would just demand more ‘equality’. What a sad world we live in.

#59 Gary on 04.02.20 at 3:18 pm

Garth, just retired, have a couple of 100K in retained earnings which is my own pension plan, take out 30K. per year TO SUPPLEMENT CPP &. OAS.
Should I buy a Bobcat & Truck start a new business that
will have negative cash flow, to keep the Libers from
taxing the hell out of my retained earnings

#60 Lambchop on 04.02.20 at 3:20 pm

#17 Megaman on 04.02.20 at 1:31 pm
People selling masks and handsan got busted yesterday in Richmond bc and yet just slapped with a fine most likely not from Canada instead of putting them in jail and give them the death penalty teach them a f in lesson
________________

Whoa! Someone drank the Kook-aid

#61 mycomicshop on 04.02.20 at 3:22 pm

there should be no bailouts of anyone. not now. not in 2008. not ever. this is a complete joke. printed money in the trillions. never to be paid back. companies behaving poorly get bailed out by taxpayers. individuals living pay to pay, getting bailed out by governments now printing trillions.

it’s all a joke. and Turner thinks physical yellow metals are poor investments. best investment in the last 20 years and counting.

The reality is that there can be no unlimited QE unless the market allows it to happen. Does anyone think the FED can keep doing this forever? every time there is a crisis, it prints trillions, buys trillions, expands its balance sheet by trillions, and never has any intention of paying it back.

you’ll wish you owned physical metals when the bond market decides to have fits and refuses to accept all this.

politicians will never raise taxes enough to pay this money back. central banks will just print what governments need. the game is all but over.

#62 The West on 04.02.20 at 3:24 pm

Deflation kills economies

Inflation kills governments

I cannot understand, for the life of me, why it is the responsibility of those who have worked hard to get ahead to continually be financially exploited for the benefit of those who continue to prove they are not worthy of survival in this world. Don’t mean to sound heartless but, do we realize where we are headed as a country here? Why not close my business, layoff my employees and sit at home and do drugs? Why not? Those who are doing it live at least as good as my 60 hours of hard work a week.

This country needs to fail! Let it collapse, those of us who are strong and able will sort it out.

Down with Ottawa!

#63 Keith on 04.02.20 at 3:30 pm

My parents were born in the depression. In conversation with my mother, she told me how she and my father put aside as little as $10, but always something to have an emergency fund of two months salary. Different times.

I get that holding cash is a losers game net of taxes and inflation. I don’t understand how no contingency plan for so many people is the new reality. The line of credit, is an emergency plan. Money from relatives, if necessary is an emergency plan. TFSA’s, RRSP’s can be tapped – extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.

My wife and I bought our first property about a year before the RRSP based home buyers program started. We had little in the way of RRSP savings, about the same amount as our down payment at the time. But it was there as an emergency fund if absolutely necessary.

We have lost something as a nation, I have long wondered how people could “live on the edge” financially year after year and not suffer from stress. People used to work for the same company for forty years, and have a pension and emergency savings. A small amount of savings, in whatever form is a great mental bulwark in these times.

My wife and I don’t qualify for any assistance, and my wife’s net income isn’t a lot more that the government benefits on offer. No matter. We are so lucky compared to most, and I couldn’t be more grateful to our parents and grandparents for their great example that practicing thrift, no matter what the context is one of the most beneficial things you can do for yourself, for society and the planet. Good luck dogs, this too shall pass.

#64 Mattl on 04.02.20 at 3:32 pm

#35 R on 04.02.20 at 2:14 pm
“Ironically, those who had savings, reserves, emergency funds, retained profits or prudence will be in the crosshairs.”

———————-
Maybe not now, but soon, can you suggest some methods to avoid being caught in the crosshairs?

————————————————————

Safe bet that they will go after high salary wage earners. This is the well they have gone to the past 20 years and I don’t see that stopping.

#65 Lefty on 04.02.20 at 3:32 pm

Being a grasshopper when your PM and his ruling wedding party are all ants..

#66 TheDood on 04.02.20 at 3:33 pm

I can’t speak for everyone here, but I’m going to be really pissed if my nest egg takes a hit because of others fiscal irresponsibility.

One of the key learnings for this whole COVID episode has to be personal finance education for young people still in school. School boards approve all sorts of curriculum subjects – food prep, woodwork, basket weaving, etc. One of my daughters social studies teachers is teaching is his version of climate change – approved by a school board in…………you guessed it, BC. Certainly subject matter can be developed which teaches the idiot population about saving, investing, avoiding debt, not listening to your parents about RE, buying what you need only.

I’m going to write our school board about this and urge all the dogs to do the same – and don’t ask nicely. Demand change. NOW!

#67 oh bouy on 04.02.20 at 3:38 pm

@#38 S on 04.02.20 at 2:17 pm
Having said all that do you still feel that those who advocated holding gold as part of their investment, especially physical metal, were misguided?

Yes. – Garth
______________________

like wearing a mask, false sense of security.
but hey, whatever makes you feel better.

#68 Faron on 04.02.20 at 3:43 pm

“Btw….still believe all those global warming models folks?”

First, thanks for the great post today Garth. This is a cataclysm. Seems we are speeding down a highway at night with our headlights off here. Although my opinions seem differ from yours in some areas, I really appreciate your view and dedication to providing it.

Regarding Mr. Deplorable:

–their modelling (COVID) is bang on for deaths so far, which is their modelling target. To get hospital resource use they back-calculate from the modelled death. This compounds potential error. Error in their death model and error in their hospitalization model. (I read their paper, did you? Ask Garth for my e-mail and I’ll send it to you if you don’t have access).

–They have had only a few months to develop a model and its based on early and incomplete data.

–It’s called model uncertainty. No one ever claimed 100% accuracy. You see those shaded areas around the curves? Those are their model range. They are huge. For total deaths the range is 40k to 177k. You think being a politician is easy? This is what they have to form policy on routinely in all arenas.

–The global warming models have been accurate for temp or, if anything, have underestimated things. They are also based on physics while this modelling is based on statistics. The comparison is apples to oranges.

#69 Stone on 04.02.20 at 3:48 pm

Goodbye zombie companies. Hopefully, whoever picks up your assets in the soon to come firesales will deploy them in a more efficient manner and have some foresight to retain some dry powder for emergencies like this one.

#70 Kurt on 04.02.20 at 3:50 pm

#16 Palpha on 04.02.20 at 1:30 pm

Ding! Ding! Ding!

We have a winner!

What you write lines up with everything I’ve read about universal use of masks – you don’t protect healthy people from the air, you protect the air from the (unknowingly) sick people. Now it remains to be seen whether this proven approach is adapted by our governments.

Do you have any recommendations for what fabric to use? I’ve got a pretty varied scrap box.

#71 Doug t on 04.02.20 at 3:52 pm

Will people ever learn? Hopefully but doubtful

#72 Mf on 04.02.20 at 3:53 pm

This makes me think I should retire a year or two earlier. That way I don’t have to pay as much tax to support the financial illiterates.

#73 Alberta Ed on 04.02.20 at 3:53 pm

Let’s hope that one of the lessons learned is to never elect a profligate government like the Trudeau Liberals.

#74 Modeler on 04.02.20 at 3:55 pm

#36 – spot on comment re models. Poor approximations of the real world constructed of millions of modeling elements, each tainted with multiple degrees of human judgement. Yet touted as an unquestionable view into the future. Okey dokey.

#75 nan on 04.02.20 at 3:57 pm

“This episode’s painful. Scary. Terrifying. A virus 95% of victims recover from has nonetheless created public panic. Media has convinced the bulk of the population they’re at imminent risk of death.”

99.5%. 1/200 will die, not one in 20. Probably even less with access to non-capacity constrained healthcare.

#76 NotasSmartasyouthink on 04.02.20 at 3:58 pm

#66 oh bouy on 04.02.20 at 3:38 pm
like wearing a mask, false sense of security.
but hey, whatever makes you feel better.

_________________________

Right and the masks did nothing for the folks in Taiwan?

#77 Joe on 04.02.20 at 3:59 pm

I wonder if Government stimulus packages will result in significant increase in construction activities in the next five years.

#78 LTRFTW on 04.02.20 at 4:00 pm

All the rules have changed, anything is possible.
Our instant world demand instant action. Stay with the herd and you’ll be OK. If you all run off the cliff, at least you won’t die alone.

Gone are the days where we sought independence and accepted responsibility for our actions good or bad. Today, there is always someone to bail you out for a price. My first credit card had a $100 limit until you could demonstrate that you were responsible. People save for a rainy day and had to pay cash for most of the things they bought. Now you can rack up the balance and just have to make the minimum payment. When times get tough, ( like today ) the government comes along and bails you out.

Putz’s like me that saved for their retirement, put money aside for stormy waters and had the guts to tell our kids that we can’t afford an expensive vacation every year (but we can go camping ) have no idea what the future holds. I’m proud to know that everything I have came from hard work and determination. My kids are amazed that I can cook, repair, garden and be content with reading a magazine beside the fire I built with the wood I chopped.

We will get through this crisis eventually but not unscathed. My generation is patient and resourceful. I don’t know about your generation.

This is just the beginning, never say never.

#79 ts on 04.02.20 at 4:01 pm

#52 James on 04.02.20 at 3:02 pm

Agree 100%!!!

#80 Stahom on 04.02.20 at 4:03 pm

Even if we are all laid bare financially from this, a certain population that has exercized fiscal discipline will climb out and rebuild. Those who cannot find this trait will struggle and suffer for the balance of their days.

#81 accountant on 04.02.20 at 4:08 pm

1 M cases worldwide, 50k died, that does not mean 5% of death rate. You should only count the 262k CLOSED cases of which 51K died. That’s actually 20% death rate

Bogus. Fully 95% of active cases are mild and will lead to full recovery. Please tell us you are not really an accountant. – Garth

#82 GB on 04.02.20 at 4:08 pm

Garth,

Reading this blog X 20 years. It’s almost like you are a prophet with how you harped on the dept and spend happy society that endangered us all.

So…I have followed your advice (by and large) and lived within my means. I shunned debt and only bought what I could afford…..with cash.

I don’t earn a large salary so it’s not like I’ve accumulated a massive amount but enough cash to survive a year without income.

My fear now however is that folks that went ahead and spent and borrowed beyond reasonable capacity is going to end up impacting those that were diligent (austerity measures, taxes, etc etc).

I’m annoyed by the fact that the housing market was allowed to mushroom like it did.

I’m annoyed that people spent like thieves without ever considering that historically….things go south without warning.

I’m annoyed that as a saver and someone who respected human history (risky) that I’m in the cross hairs for economic implications.

#83 ts on 04.02.20 at 4:08 pm

This corona virus is giving new meaning to “silent spring”.

What a nightmare. I still cannot believe that a virus can cause such upheaval in the entire world. So now we’re told to stay home another 12 weeks! I hope someone discovers the vaccine soon or we’re all doomed.

#84 Dolce Vita on 04.02.20 at 4:09 pm

Thanks for the capable update Garth.

Have stopped perusing Cdn. MSM media about the economy.

Get more out of your Blog than a days worth of reading them, hands down.

#85 Yukon Elvis on 04.02.20 at 4:09 pm

Would not surprise me to see an increase in sales taxes too over and above what Garth mentioned.

UK VAT is 20%, France 20%, Italy22%, Germany19%, Ireland23%, Netherlands 21%, Norway25%, Russia20%, Sweden 25%, Austria 20%.

#86 Figure it Out on 04.02.20 at 4:11 pm

“Cressford Recievership ZERO to do with current crisis.”

True. Ditto Boeing’s problems, mostly stemming from a badly redesigned airplane, Newfoundland’s (taking on Muskrat Falls debt), a bunch of US shale E&P, and many, many others.

But anyone who managed to make it to this month will blame their failure on the bug, or blame the bug when asking for a bailout, and will spend the rest of their lives telling everybody else (and themselves, in many cases) that it wasn’t their fault.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 4:12 pm

@#50 jsto
“Well, I just heard from the Vancouver Real Estate Board that fees and monthlies are to remain in place as they are… On-line courses costing exorbitant amount are still to be taken at this time… despite no income and no sales… ”

+++

Apparently you didnt get the Real Estate memo ( or is that meme?)

https://theprovince.com/news/metro-vancouver-homes-sales-up-then-down-in-march-rebgv/wcm/86a4e4fe-0bca-404d-9e74-0ac3ed4ae3ac

#88 Flanneur on 04.02.20 at 4:15 pm

My dog can catch rabbits if need be , my mortgage just dropped to 1.45%, and now stocks are cheaper to buy. Some good. Some bad, I’m handing out refunds to many clients this week and will not get any govt $.

The balance is still to the positive.

For all the humanists, maybe we have too many people on this earth? Nobody wants their family to get Covid but natures got its own plans.

#89 Franco on 04.02.20 at 4:17 pm

When you say 95% recover, it’s like you are saying this is no big deal, then why are governments all over the world going crazy trying to contain it and leaders like Trump that would love to have everything opened up is refusing to do so after seeing the data?

#90 Deplorable Dude on 04.02.20 at 4:18 pm

$67 Faron “–It’s called model uncertainty”

WE SHUT DOWN THE FRICKING PLANET……

The only stats that matter are beds needed, that’s why we shut everything down to stop overloading the hospitals.

We committed economic suicide, submitted to voluntary house arrest, and are encouraged to snitch on our neighbours based on a model this is currently incorrect by

…..400%

For actions this drastic governments better be pretty damn sure of their figures.

#91 BillyBob on 04.02.20 at 4:22 pm

#66 oh bouy on 04.02.20 at 3:38 pm
@#38 S on 04.02.20 at 2:17 pm
Having said all that do you still feel that those who advocated holding gold as part of their investment, especially physical metal, were misguided?

Yes. – Garth
______________________

like wearing a mask, false sense of security.
but hey, whatever makes you feel better.

=================================================

Don’t know why this still isn’t understood, but here goes.

The wearing of masks by the general populace is not to give the wearer a sense of security. It’s to protect those around the wearer. If everyone is wearing one, it lowers the spread of droplets. Kind of important when transmission is possible by people without symptoms.

Once again, a shout-out to my adopted home Czech Republic. The only country in Europe who’s chosen to adopt the best practices based on results in Asia, instead of pandering to politics and PC.

I’ve noticed a groundswell of backtracking in the Western media now starting to gather around reversing the “masks don’t do anything” meme. Even the WHO is starting to waffle.

Brutally bad leadership all around.

#92 Dolce Vita on 04.02.20 at 4:24 pm

“A virus 95% of victims recover from has nonetheless created public panic.”

Everyone fears death Garth, it’s in our nature. People see the 5% not the 95%. What can I tell you.

Follow the health rules, recommendations you should be fine. Though, I will tell you that your Health Officers spew a lot of BS to the people. Cdn. Docs frightened when peak comes, understandable, Canada has 1/2 the per capita Doctors that Italia has and look what has happened here.

All of these and other things, are churned subconsciously and the conscious outcome manifests as fear. It’s in our nature, the way we were made. Hopefully, our aeons Engineer Mother Nature, got it right.

—————————————–

Look what I got in the mail yesterday for free from Gov Italia (hint, you wear them to protect others):

https://i.imgur.com/ysHn28G.jpg

Subtle hint by them, nice gesture though. Though, I can buy them across the street at my tobacconist at €2.50 each.

—————————————–

Glacial, watch paint dry faster, Italian bureaucracy no longer, I take it back, this being rolled out today:

1. TEN MINUTE COVID test that also detects antibodies, 100% accurate.

2. Hydroxychloroquine for infections.

The latter stops the infection, lung cells returned to normal (below part of clinical trial finding by Italian Virologist incl. eeucch lung cell photos at the end to prove the point, use Google Translate).

https://www.ilriformista.it/cose-il-plaquenil-il-farmaco-che-secondo-burioni-puo-prevenire-il-coronavirus-71919/

—————————————–

…meanwhile, back in Canada?

#93 the Jaguar on 04.02.20 at 4:25 pm

All due respect, what good would a ‘serious talk’ do anyway? We have a society and government that provide incentives and rewards for bad behaviour. Intelligence, morality, discipline and thoughtful thinking are virtues in small supply and regrettably smaller demand these days. Maybe what’s really needed is some updated version of ” the beatings will continue until the morale improves”? I like the idea. And maybe until people get the message we need governmental leadership in a somewhat toned down version of somebody like President Rodrigo Duterte of the Phillipines who addressed drug lords thusly during his election campaign:
“Forget the laws on human rights. If I make it to the presidential palace, I will do just what I did as mayor. You drug pushers, hold-up men and do-nothings, you better go out. Because I’d kill you. I’ll dump all of you into Manila Bay, and fatten all the fish there.”
Mercy.

#94 CGN on 04.02.20 at 4:28 pm

#13 BLTandfries on 04.02.20 at 1:20 pm
Speaking of grasshoppers, guys make sure you’re reviewing your prepping stock. Earlier this week I did an ammo tally, turns out I have several thousand rifle rounds but only twenty shotgun shells. Dunno what I was thinking when those are probably more important in a food shortage.

____

Be careful what you say in public. You might be one of those guys who buys a pail of BB’s and a brick of .22 shorts from Candian Tire, then is raided by the local constabulary who crow “he had thosands of rounds of ammo!”

Not the time to be talking about what lurks in the ammo closet.

#95 Sail away on 04.02.20 at 4:28 pm

#84 Yukon Elvis on 04.02.20 at 4:09 pm

Would not surprise me to see an increase in sales taxes too over and above what Garth mentioned.

UK VAT is 20%, France 20%, Italy22%, Germany19%, Ireland23%, Netherlands 21%, Norway25%, Russia20%, Sweden 25%, Austria 20%.

——————

US federal sales tax: 0

Alaska, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon sales tax: 0

Other states range up to the highest of 7.25% for California.

Who is the world powerhouse again? Strange how they don’t tax their residents to death. Coincidence?

#96 Larry Laffer on 04.02.20 at 4:30 pm

[…] virus 95% of victims recover from has nonetheless created public panic. Media has convinced the bulk of the population they’re at imminent risk of death”

Please stop now. Stop insisting on the “meager” death rate, that’s only part of the story (as well as being far from insignificant). 20-40% of all Covid-19 patients require hospitalization, and among those, roughly a quarter end up in ICU. This tsunami of patients turns hospitals into war zones, and other citizen are denied health coverage as a result;many of them will get sick or die as collateral damage. Meanwhile, doctors and nurse also get sick and die as unsung heroes. This is far from a harmless flu, it’s a major health crisis. The economy cannot function normally during a major health crisis, how’s that surprising?

And do not blame the media for reporting what you’ve failed to see for the past month. Health care experts are worth listening to. Properly deal with the health crisis first, then try restarting the economy when Covid-19 gets under control.

As for personal finances… well, the harm’s done, right?, But telling everyone to ignore Covid-19 will certainly not help, it will just delay the recovery further, and that’s harmful for everyone.

Where, exactly, did I tell anyone to ‘ignore Copvid-19’? Exaggeration tempts us to ignore everything else you say, however valid. – Garth

#97 Chris in Edm on 04.02.20 at 4:33 pm

Unfortunately, there won’t be a serious talk when this is all done. We’ll go back to business/debt as usual because that’s the culture we live in and the ‘leadership’ we have.

I’d really love to know 2 things:
1) Why is Trudeau still isolating at his cottage? Isn’t the 14days of self isolation up? Yeah other people are urged to work from home, but this guy is literally the only politician on Earth hiding right now. Coward.
2) Why can’t parliament work and vote remotely? The rest of us use skype, teams, etc… Why can’t they?

#98 IHCTD9 on 04.02.20 at 4:34 pm

#71 Mf on 04.02.20 at 3:53 pm
This makes me think I should retire a year or two earlier. That way I don’t have to pay as much tax to support the financial illiterates.
——

That’s a good plan if you can swing it. I can’t fathom how 17 million workers are going to cover the 12 figure annual debts Trudeau is currently running.

This Trudeau train is one everyone should start planning to get off of. It’s going off the rails.

#99 Dolce Vita on 04.02.20 at 4:37 pm

#45 Lost…but not leased

You’re “measly cold”, bird of a feather, soulmate, Bolsonaro not doing so well and neither is Brazil.

Confirmed: 7,910
Deaths: 299
Recovered: 127
Active: 7,484

…and the “measly cold” has not even begun plying its trade there yet.

Same with Socialist, we can’t afford a lockdown, wishy washy protocol implementing Sweden (also in the early stages):

Confirmed: 5,568
Deaths: 308
Recovered: 103
Active: 5,157

——————————-

Then again as your mind works, it’s all a lie. Cure worse than the disease.

Natural Selection. Watch in real time.

#100 Dazed and CONfused on 04.02.20 at 4:39 pm

Strange how the USA hasn’t yet discovered the simplest, most cost-effective and live-saving mask ever mass produced.

Duct Tape.

Just one 2″ x 4″ piece of Duct Tape over Dr. Bone Spurs mouth would probably end up saving the lives of millions of Americans.

#101 Figmund Sreud on 04.02.20 at 4:39 pm

Yes, unprecedented times.
_________________________

Indeed. As panic over coronavirus spreads, we simply had to, … had to make the ultimate choice: … either to enact the most brutal logic of the survival of the fittest, or, … some kind of reinvented socialism.

Reinvented socialism it is for now. Panic has a logic of its own.

But when this is done, Canada, we need to have a serious talk.
________________________

Why? That would be so, … so democratic. Socialist. Beside, there is a templet as how all this may easily be done. Recall the name Walter Lockhart Gordon.

Remember Walter Lockhart Gordon? No? Well, … Gordon presided over the Bank of Canada and the federal Ministry of Finance over the last world war times. As I recall from my history lessons, … he made two relevant speeches to the nation. One at the onset of the war, … and the second after the end of it. The first one promoted enforced socialism upon the masses, … the second one scolded it!

I will try to dig both stories out, …

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, AB.

#102 Wrk.dover on 04.02.20 at 4:44 pm

Will an N95 mask protect my TSFA-FDIC protected GIC?

It will be interesting to see if ten years contribution to that thing amounts to more value than a ten year stock portfolio TSFA to when the dust settles.

#103 Marco on 04.02.20 at 4:44 pm

Oh, I rather read that Canadian stories how we are all in this together, then this about how other people are irresponsible but I am so prudent and mama taught me to save… give me are break.
What percentage of “Canadian Economy” is consumption?

#104 JohnAB on 04.02.20 at 4:45 pm

So basically the ones who are indebted will be tip-top. The ones who saved and thought of the future, will be the losers… I remember a couple of years ago on this blog, in this comment section when the commenters were saying “you think the government is gonna bail you out? Think again!” and here it happens. From the existing situation I can only say: never be afraid to take a big debt. If you go by the flow, everything will be ok. If we have a crisis situation, you’re gonna be having your mortgage payments postponed + bailed by the government + keep your house. If your house is going down right now in price, wait for a year or two. It will go back up in price. Do not expect the central bank to raise rates high. It won’t go over 2%. We are not going back in the days of 14% rates anymore, since this is unsustainable. Expect the money value to go down over time at a much faster rate than the official inflation rate. And yes, buying a house in a hot market with lots of immigration, will at least keep the prices up, but in most cases with a 50k investment (downpayment), will make you money double in 1 year. Writing this comment and understanding the said above I want to puke… saving money doesn’t work. Investing, well, look at the market. That’s why people turn to houses…

#105 Kato on 04.02.20 at 4:52 pm

#56 Yukon Elvis on 04.02.20 at 3:17 pm
#25 NFN_NLN on 04.02.20 at 1:47 pm
Pandemic Idiom of the Day:

Pyrrhic Victory:
A Pyrrhic victory is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat.
…………………

So what ? You should see the other guy.
—————

“If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined”. – Pyrrhus of Epirus

#106 Terry on 04.02.20 at 4:53 pm

I’ll say it again. Closing down our economies and locking people down was a HUGE mistake. What we need to do going forward is seriously look at shutting down all the Main Stream Media outlets, CBC, CTV, CNN, CNBC, MSNBC etc…They are the real villains in this economic catastrophe.

#107 Timmy on 04.02.20 at 4:53 pm

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/04/02/China-Secrecy-Pandemic/

#108 Dolce Vita on 04.02.20 at 4:54 pm

Sorry about the Mr. Virus updates Garth.

It’s my way of saying chin up, help is on the way, we can return to our normal lives soon enough and get back to doing things we like with certainty that we will not snuff it.

If events continue to unfold at the rapid pace like today, WHO KNOWS (who, not WHO, pun intended)?

ECONOMIC REBOUND 4TH QTR.

Looking like it to me, more and more each day (2021 vaccine or not).

———————————————–

Keep posting your take on the economy Garth, much appreciated by yours truly.

#109 Smoking Man on 04.02.20 at 5:00 pm

#105 Terry on 04.02.20 at 4:53 pm
I’ll say it again. Closing down our economies and locking people down was a HUGE mistake. What we need to do going forward is seriously look at shutting down all the Main Stream Media outlets, CBC, CTV, CNN, CNBC, MSNBC etc…They are the real villains in this economic catastrophe.
,………..

Nice, you get it.
Diabetes and old people die from this.

#110 Shawn Allen on 04.02.20 at 5:00 pm

How to Stop the spread

#21 conan on 04.02.20 at 1:37 pm
Experts are now saying that Covid 19 is spread from breathing. A lot of people with Corona have no symptoms. The walking Corona invasion.

Normal breath – 2 foot spread
talking- 5-10 foot spread
singing- 10 -20 foot spread
yelling- 20-25 foot spread

*******************************
So… Speak only softly and carry a long stick

And wear a mask when out, any kind will help.

And stay home as much as possible.

#111 The Wet One on 04.02.20 at 5:01 pm

So we’ve hit a bit of a milestone today.

There are 1,000,000 confirmed infections at this time https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (April 2, 2020 at 1:24 p.m.)

There are 51,485 dead.

We don’t know how many people are asymptomatic or simply weren’t tested and have the disease.

The economy is on lockdown.

Should we, let it rip and just carry on with whatever rate of death we see now and revive the economy?

Should we continue the lockdown or reduced activity until a bona fide end to this can be arrived at (large scale immunity or vaccine)?

How many dead should we allow to pile up over what span of time?

Let’s hear it folks. What’s your call?

Pretty sure no matter what the government does, they’ll catch hell from someone and be turfed from office no matter what. So who cares what they do. They’re going down.

What’s your call?

Me, I’m not sure yet. If one assumes there are no cases beyond the reported ones, and we let it rip, stop doing anything to stop the virus and let the economy limp along as best as it can, 1/20th of people die. With a population of 7.8 billion humans on earth, that’s 390 million dead. About 5 years worth of population growth.

That price seems too steep. And yeah, I get that there are confounding factors that makes that estimate erroneous and unreliable, but no one knows anyways, so it’s as good a high side guess as any.

If doing what we doing now keeps the death rate to 1 in 200, that’s 39 million dead out of the world’s 7.8 billion. The economy will be in tatters though. So we’ll have economic devastation the likes of which we’ve never seen and lose about WWII levels of dead.

Not sure I’m willing to pay that price either (in dead or economic suffering).

So I really don’t know.

What’s your thoughts?

How much economic harm for how much death?

What’s your call?

Because that’s what this all boils down to in terms what actions we should collective take.

Or do I have that wrong?

Save every life at whatever cost?

Save the economy at whatever cost?

Somewhere in between? Save as much life as cheaply as possible?

What’s the call.

In either case, the governments (federal and provincial) are probably going to lose the next election.

Then again, maybe, just maybe, people value their elders, parents, family members and so on more than they do money. From reading the people who post here, I don’t get that sense, but maybe they do.

We’ll see one way or another.

Again, let me know how you would decide the matter. I’m interested in knowing.

#112 Penny Henny on 04.02.20 at 5:01 pm

From the article. Wow.
Ryan Boon, 28, account manager
“My job has been deemed essential for the moment, but I’m not sure how much longer that will be the case. Also, my pay is commission-based and my partner lost her job earlier this month. I live in a building with 200 units, owned by a giant corporation. What we are doing here is putting landlords on notice. Our sincere hope is that landlords will refrain from attempting to collect rent and from attempting to evict tenants who reallocate their rent to more immediate needs. I’m keeping my rent on April 1 in support of my neighbours who cannot afford to prioritize the wealth of their landlords over the well-being of their families.”

https://torontolife.com/city/right-now-i-can-either-pay-my-rent-or-starve-these-torontonians-are-keeping-their-rent-on-april-1/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=This%20City%20-%20April%202%202020%20-&utm_content=This%20City%20-%20April%202%202020%20-+CID_7d665c33fbc9af0c6d26701e41b17e9f&utm_source=Newsletters&utm_term=Meet%20Megan%20Kinch

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 5:02 pm

@#102 Marco
“What percentage of “Canadian Economy” is consumption?”
++++
Well, these days.

If you exclude everything else ….

100% of the current economy consumption is……toilet paper

#114 Attrition on 04.02.20 at 5:03 pm

With deepest respects to the great man himself, I give you this:

We shall be taxed to the end. We shall be taxed in our homes, we shall be taxed on the seas and oceans, we shall be taxed, with shrinking confidence and shrinking strength in the free market, we shall give up our nation, whatever the cost may be. We shall be banned from the the beaches, we shall be banned from the landing grounds, we shall work in the fields and wander in the streets, we shall be taxed in the hills; we shall never recover…

Yours singularly,
Attrition

#115 Annek on 04.02.20 at 5:04 pm

For all that think this Corona virus is no big deal. Please watch this link:
https://youtu.be/4J0d59dd-qM

Makes you think..

#116 SOMETHINGS UP on 04.02.20 at 5:06 pm

IT’s ALL a Ponzi Scheme.

#117 JSS on 04.02.20 at 5:06 pm

Man I feel like such a loser trying to live within budget, saving, investing, and working to pay down debt.
Turns out that it was a mostly pointless and a futile exercise.
Thought it was the right thing. When will we win?!?!

#118 OK, Doomer on 04.02.20 at 5:07 pm

So PM, let me see if I git this correct:

You don’t want to release data on a COVID model with only a few variables and can be easily tested and updated and adjusted over a daily or weekly time-frame because you’re concerned that conclusions can be misleading.

But relying on outrageously complicated Global Warming computer models with thousands of unknown and unmeasureable unverifiable variables cast hundreds of years into the future to rework the entire economy is just fine.

What a fool.

#119 Off Duty on 04.02.20 at 5:07 pm

Hi Garth,

So where do you recommend two 42 yr olds with a paid off mortgage, zero debt and both still employed in “essential services” put their $$$?

I want to make the most of a down market before the government comes for the ones that were prudent and always lived slightly below their means!

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 5:09 pm

Garth is ahead of the curve
This weeks’ The Economist

https://www.economist.com/printedition/2020-04-04

#121 Figure it Out on 04.02.20 at 5:11 pm

“The next budget could usher in toe-curling ‘emergency’ tax increases. “

Eh, what the heck for?

It isn’t like Canada is going to lose competitive position with a high debt level. We print another C$200B, the US will probably print US$4-5T on top of the $1T deficit they were running even before COVFEFE-19, with a supposedly “strong” economy, the UK prints, even “swartz null” Germany might end up rot zwei or so.

Interest rates will be held down via central bank interventions, those $2/hr raises will never be rolled back, food and TP prices will remain reasonable because the masses won’t be able to pay more, and nominal asset prices will climb, climb, climb.

Any higher taxes on the rich or the middle class will be strictly exemplary, not nearly enough to put a dent in the debt (which won’t be paid off, by you or your grandkids). It’s called asset price inflation, folks, and it will not be televised.

#122 Linda on 04.02.20 at 5:15 pm

A serious talk is one thing. People actually learning from this quite another. What they have learned: they can spend what they want, never save a thing, go on trips even as borders are closing & ‘the government’ will bail them out when their finances go ‘ka-boom’. While I’d really like to think that those stranded vacationers will have to pay back the bailout, chances are that the government will indeed impose ’emergency measure’ taxation on those who did prepare for a rainy day. Lesson learned: act irresponsibly. You’ll be rewarded for it.

#123 tin on 04.02.20 at 5:18 pm

So… moar debt = V recovery?

#124 Orange Man....Orange on 04.02.20 at 5:18 pm

#99 Dazed and CONfused on 04.02.20 at 4:39 pm

Just one 2″ x 4″ piece of Duct Tape over Dr. Bone Spurs mouth would probably end up saving the lives of millions of Americans.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

I’m sure you’re one of these people who’s waiting to see what Adam Schiff and Pelosi come up with next for Impeachement 2.0.

I’ll bet Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi will drop acid and hallucinate a conversation between Putin, Xi and Trump where they all plotted to gain control of Mars by letting loose a Zombie face melting virus in Manhattan. The kind of plot that even Stephen King could write an ending to.

I can hardly wait.

I wonder if Jim Carrey and Rob Reiner have finally figured out that they’re less important to society than each and every. Having said that, I’ll aso bet that they’re all stocked up on #TrumpPills.

#125 Orange Man....Orange on 04.02.20 at 5:20 pm

I wonder if Jim Carrey and Rob Reiner have finally figured out that they’re less important to society than each and every delivery truck driver.

#126 Wait There on 04.02.20 at 5:20 pm

No economist has costed out what it would have cost the economy to block ALL travel from and to China in January.
If we had done this AND quarantined all arrivals with MANDATORY requirements we would be humming along.

Now look at the cost of progressive thinking of we cannot do that. Even when we blocked Europe there were protests. Believable?
Now look at the cost of signalling we are not right wing racists. Hell I am Chinese and I was calling for the same restrictions as those in Hong Kong was calling for. Are the people in HK racists? Get a grip Prime Minister.

Next thing, the WHO should be disbanded and a reset start. If they had called a pandemic at the end of January, the world would be much better off. That “guy”, is he a CCP operative?

Why did China knowingly allow it to get out? Hey, if their economy is going down, the rest of world should share in the pain as well. Is that not communism, share the pain with everyone. Even to this day, their claim of no cases is bogus. Real fake news.

#127 Blog Bunny on 04.02.20 at 5:21 pm

Garth,

You and your associates look truly badass on your firm’s front page, but I was surprised to hear how gentle your voice is on the podcast.

Things will get better after Easter. I have God’s word for it. Now we have to endure the punishment. If only it could make people smarter.

#128 Marco on 04.02.20 at 5:24 pm

The Latest: US to recommend widespread wearing of masks
Where to buy it? In the best country in the world. North of USA.
Where?
Also, Coronavirus supplies for Canada diverted to U.S.
Blame the landlord.

#129 Yukon Elvis on 04.02.20 at 5:24 pm

#103 JohnAB on 04.02.20 at 4:45 pm

Writing this comment and understanding the said above I want to puke… saving money doesn’t work. Investing, well, look at the market. That’s why people turn to houses…
………………………………………….

We need both. Paid for home = no rent. Dividend paying blue chips = cash flow.

#130 Grunt on 04.02.20 at 5:25 pm

I still whiff environmental levies. Oil is cheap. More tax on gas. Transportation can pass it off to the customer base as fuel surcharge. Everyone else pays.

#131 Penny Henny on 04.02.20 at 5:26 pm

10 million Americans have applied for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks. You’d think it would get more headlines.

#132 Wait There on 04.02.20 at 5:34 pm

Everybody will eventually figure out it all started in China NOT the people….The Chinese Communist Party and officials. Never Trust Communists.

Unfortunately any reprisals to China will always affect the citizens and not the officials. The citizens are the innocent.
Remember that people.

#133 not 1st on 04.02.20 at 5:35 pm

Maybe the term progressive govt will be swept away along with Trudeau in the fall. That’s the first step to a recovery.

Why do people prefer having smoke and sunshine blown up their you know what until it finally results in locking down the entire population and depriving them of the liberty and ability to earn any kind of living. Living in total oblivion until it all comes crashing down.

#134 Tenants, jeez... on 04.02.20 at 5:35 pm

So, yesterday 3 of my 7 tenants did not pay the rent, they told me they don’t have the funds. Just now I find out the rent cheques of two of my other tenants bounced. This is just too much! Is there anything I can do?? If this goes on for another month ot two I will be getting in problems myself. I certainly don’t want to be forced to sell one of my buildings in this mess, surely once we are out of this crisis values will be back to normal again. But what to do meanwhile??

#135 Eco Capitalist on 04.02.20 at 5:39 pm

Thank you for posting the pod cast. Hearing you talk markets brought a whole lot of CTV flashbacks.

#136 Marco on 04.02.20 at 5:40 pm

Well, some results of globalization… Western people will be wearing face masks like Chinese.
Same salaries is next step. After that Chinese salaries will be higher because they are more hard working.

#137 crazyfox on 04.02.20 at 5:41 pm

A virus 95% of victims recover from has nonetheless created public panic. Media has convinced the bulk of the population they’re at imminent risk of death. – Garth

15% of recovered victims will end up with some degree of organ damage, lets not forget about that. It’s not just 95/5 life or death cut and dried. Anyone who has had severe pneumonia knows you aren’t 100% the same after you recover, but I digress.

There’s a lesson in exponential growth that shouldn’t be missed on us, here. This virus without any efforts to stop its spread, is doubling every 5 days. We can see it in most charts on worldometer with national charts.
15% average daily growth =
1.15 x 15% = 1.32% 2nd day
1.32% x 15% = 1.52% 3rd day
1.749% 4th day
2.011% day 5, doubles every 5 days.

Lets put it to practical numbers. If this 5 day doubling continues through an 18 day cycle (5 day incubation, 10 day symptoms, 3 days shedding virus after symptoms disappear), a 15% daily growth rate adds up to a 3.6 transmission rate (each person infects 3.6 people on average) assuming the world doesn’t lift a finger to stop this novel virus and it has it’s way. Btw, that’s high.

Let’s start with a base number for easy math, say 1,000 infected to drill it home.

1,000 @ 5 days = 2,000. 2,000 @ 10 days is 4,000. 4,000 @ 15 days = 8,000. 8,000 @ 20 days = 16,000. @ 30 days, 64,000. @ day 40, 256,000. @ day 50, 1,024,000 infected cases. 1,000x growth in 50 days, if we do nothing.

We can continue to minimize and downplay the risk but where has it gotten us? We minimized risk when this virus came off the planes. There should have been 14 day quarantines for every passenger regardless of symptoms but we didn’t do it because we didn’t want to over react. “It’ll wreck the airline industry and tourism for a flu”, we heard. As a result of not doing what was needed then, we are dealing with something economically 100 times worse called exponential growth.

Look at this chart from Italy for example, and tell me I’m wrong. Follow the rate of growth, fairly consistent at 15% average:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Italy is a poster child for what happens to a nation that does nothing until the last minute and even then, they resisted because of the same argument, “it’ll hurt the economy, its not that serious, more people die of the flu”. Well, are they better off? I can go through all the nations, most have a similar 1.15% daily rate of exponential growth in the top 20 nations, see for yourselves, trace their total case charts:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Point is, if governments would have done nothing, even for just a couple more weeks, it would be cataclysmic. They all know this now. Even a thick and dim numb nuts blowhard like Trump gets it. The dangers are real. But the economic consequences to not meeting this challenge head on could be even more devastating.

What we should be asking as Canadians is, “are we doing enough”? Canada had 1377 new cases today with a daily average increase close to 13%. Anomalous? I sure hope so. When did Canada go into lock down, the 19th, 20th of March, it’s been 2 weeks. If these numbers don’t drop in the next few days, we will need to do more. Masks and temp guns at grocery stores (like Amazon). We have to. What’s the government weekly burn rate to cover everyone it can, is it 30, 40 billion? Have a serious talk with Canada in the fall, why wait, we need it now.

#138 Panic driven fear on 04.02.20 at 5:42 pm

What Garth is trying to contribute is that we are at the point t
of taking actions that may be counterintuitive to slowing virus.
Calling police for kids in a park. Closing bridges, highways etc to limit travel etc. All of this exposes police to kore persons than they should.

No doctor on earth is going to dispute social distancing
. It’s in the hippo oath to do job harm etc. Therefore they have to reccomend the most direct form of prevention. So we live with social distancing.

As for recovery rate, mort rate, we will NEVER KNOW UNTIL PANDEMIX HAS PASSED. Those of us old enough to remember SARS, remeber an extremely high mort rate of approx 10% if I remember correctly. It turned out to be approx 4%. And we did no do any where near the testing as now.

Fast forward 20 yrs and we are here again. Only this time virus was not trapped as well and seems to transmit quicker. We still do not know mort rate, but it seems high. We are testing a large amountnof population (240000 so far) and have approx 10000 cases. The main difference this time is real time media ( twitter facebook) and 24 hr news cycle. We did not shut the plant down in 2003, and not even in 2009 for H1N1 which resulted on over 500000 deaths.

The econ Rrelated deaths of this will FAR OUTWEIGH THE DEATHS FROM THE VIRUS.

Fear and panic everywhere. We need to take a deep breath and evaluate situation and act accordingly.

#139 Bob in Hamilton on 04.02.20 at 5:43 pm

The future tax increases in this country will be epic…..get ready.

#140 Lost...but not leased on 04.02.20 at 5:44 pm

OUCH…

BC Local Gov’ts and their fiscal health:
This could get ugly…as their revenue sources are drying up and their reserves are quite lean.

Surrey? OUCH !!!

QUOTE:

British Columbia’s city halls are contracting during the early onset of the COVID-19 pandemic response, and a lengthy economic decline will force local policy makers to decide how to employ financial reserves to stave off much greater attrition.

Paul Mochrie, Vancouver’s deputy city manager, said about 1,500 city workers have been laid off even after factoring in a relatively small number of workers who have been redeployed to emergency operations, particularly in the Downtown Eastside. The cuts are mostly in frontline services, such as at recreational facilities and libraries.

But as the pandemic progresses, those revenue generators will continue to eat away at city budgets, he says.

“The hole depends on the length of time they’re closed. It’s a really broad range of potential outcomes.”

By far the largest revenue stream for cities is property taxes. In Vancouver, property taxes represent $832 million of $1.8 billion in 2019 revenue. Metro Vancouver mayors have asked the provincial government to broadly expand property tax deferrals, normally reserved for residential property owners over the age of 55 and with a one-quarter equity stake in the home.

Putting aside that quagmire, Mochrie says council will be given a range of options in the coming month(s) with different pandemic scenarios.

“The full magnitude of the cost impact is still something we’re assessing,” said Mochrie.

He sees it as a given that the city will immediately utilize a $146.3 million stabilization reserve, earmarked for “events such as inclement weather, catastrophic events, environmental hazards, extraordinary public safety situations, economic downturns and unforeseen changes in revenues.”

City manager Sadhu Johnston informed city council Tuesday its revenues are down 90% this month and expects losses in the “hundreds of millions” should physical distancing requirements persist to the end of the year.

But drawing down on the other $1.3 billion in reserves will be a political decision.
“That would be one area for sure that council would ultimately have to decide on; how much of the capital fund gets deferred and those funds redirected back into operations,” said Mochrie.

“So there could very well be projects delayed and then the other option would be service reductions – just scaling back the level of services the city provides.”

Vancouver has a $1.6 billion operating budget for this year.

But first, the city will need to determine what can and cannot be spent. Many reserves are earmarked under provincial law as “statutory,” meaning they cannot be redirected by city council. And statutory reserves will be needed over the coming year to pay for road repairs and new water mains, for instance – and particularly so if cities need to absorb non-payment of property taxes.

If property tax deferrals are not expanded (paid out by the province to cities as low-interest loans to property owners) and landowners default on payments, a much more substantial hole in the budget will be evident. And cities by law cannot run deficits outside of some loans for infrastructure.

The Ministry of Housing and Municipal Affairs declined to answer whether it will expand property tax deferrals.

Mochrie said there are ongoing discussions between cities and senior governments to determine if there is other financial support coming (mayors have also asked for unconditional grants to cover lost revenue). He said changing legal requirements surrounding statutory reserves isn’t outside the realm of possibilities.

“We’re either going to have to balance or there would have to be some change; either a direct funding infusion or some other change to manage during this time.”

In a worse case scenario and with civic governments left to handle non-payments of taxes, Mochrie envisions a “more drastic response.”

Mochrie notes how each city will vary in its financial response. But few cities have more reserve money than their annual operating budget.

Similar to Vancouver, the City of West Vancouver has laid off 450 civic workers to date and is now conducting a review of its operating budget.

“We’ll be looking for every available cost-cutting measure we can find, moving to only essential services for the next three to six months, and really sticking to the bare necessities,” said Mayor Mary-Ann Booth, via email.

As of December 2018, West Vancouver had about $101 million in reserves and $156 million in expenses.

Burnaby has the most total reserves of any B.C. city, with $1.6 billion as of December 2018, thanks to a blitzkrieg of development over the past decade and conservative spending. Its operating budget in 2018 was only $511 million. No one from the city responded to requests for comment on how it may plan to support its residents via reserves.

In Richmond, council has been taxing residents an extra one per cent to bolster its capital reserves for over the last decade. Buoyed by roughly $18 million per year in casino revenues over the last five years, it has accumulated a relatively well-funded capital works reserve for what financial planners have described as being needed for a “rainy day” or economic downturn.

Coun. Linda McPhail said the city has yet to determine how it may cushion the financial blow of the pandemic. McPhail said she would need to give more thought to a long-term response. For now, the city has closed much of the services other cities have. But, when asked how she’d consider cutting spending or simply providing tax rebates or cuts to residents, McPhail suggested city capital works projects would help revitalize the local economy.

Richmond has $540 million in reserves with annual expenses of $439 million (December 2018).

If Burnaby and Richmond are among the better financially positioned cities, Surrey is positioned much less favourably, with only $86 million in reserves and $773 million in annual expenses. Surrey also has $229 million in debt.

Audit committee member Coun. Jack Hundial says city council should reassess its key capital expenditure in the coming two years – a $45 million police force transition from the RCMP to the Surrey Police Department.

– With files from Mike Howell

[email protected]

#141 Last Gasp on 04.02.20 at 5:46 pm

We are in a profound sea change

We have entered new times and are sailing into unknown, roiled waters. Like some black sinister mist of Avalon … no one knows where we are, or where we are collectively headed. We only know where we have come from. The era will be spoken of as Pre 2020 and soon Post 2020 with no ability for foresight let alone a sense of sound direction.

The viral fog of Covid 19 will compound every decision into permanent life altering decisions. Every government decision will in future be reversed or abandoned as the collateral and reactionary results become fully apparent. The government had reversed the money pipes where money now goes to the people because absent this gesture financial armageddon would be underway instead of deferred.

This will work for but a short season. Unless risk is better apprehended by those in power the cure will poison the patient beyond recovery. A bubble economy, wrapped in bubble wrap rules, protected for too long from every thing but a once in a century pandemic has ruptured our membrane of delusion. Tommorrow is here and she is one angry mother.

#142 Word for "wait there" on 04.02.20 at 5:47 pm

Hey “wait there”, you may be a Chinese. But you are the type ” 汉奸” Chinese.

#143 Freedom First on 04.02.20 at 5:49 pm

Garth, you have a great blog. And you even give free tummy rubs!

I never feel smug or elitist for having looked after myself. However, I do feel grateful. Enough to try and help others over the years, which is more satisfying than anything. Even knowing that the help I offer pales in comparison to the giving of our host, Garth, and also knowing that, after me, everyone comes first.

Freedom First

#144 Drinking on 04.02.20 at 5:49 pm

First of all big clap to all those that are keeping us going.

Interesting article by Pierre Poilievre and Shannon Stubbs. I like it!

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/want-real-stimulus-heres-20-billion-worth#comments-area

#145 yvr_lurker on 04.02.20 at 5:51 pm

perhaps the majority …. believed adversity would never come.

——————————-
It is indeed problematic that many (mostly young) families don’t have enough savings to last 3–4 months without money coming in…. However, I don’t think what you are describing is “adversity”. When I think of this word, I think of a job loss for one of the parents (the other partner still working and providing some income) and then one finds employment again in a few months to get back on the boat. Adversity; perhaps one has to look after a sick child for a few months or an elderly parent, thereby having to go to part-time. Adversity is not the word I would use to decribe shutting down the entire economy, leaving kids at home from school (and trying to home-school them), having little hope at all in finding a job if you are in one of the impacted industries. It is not like you have been let go from Air Canada and can then seek employment from Cathay or Emirates…. your whole industry is f&*&*d until the situation is improved. It is more akin to working in a little fishing village in Newfoundland, only to learn that there has been a decree that there will be no more Cod fishing. Clearly, though many will get to work at some stage (unlike the Cod fishery), but the word “adversity” trivializes what is going on now. Need a better descriptor.

#146 Don Guillermo on 04.02.20 at 5:52 pm

#118 Off Duty on 04.02.20 at 5:07 pm
Hi Garth,
So where do you recommend two 42 yr olds with a paid off mortgage, zero debt and both still employed in “essential services” put their $$$?
I want to make the most of a down market before the government comes for the ones that were prudent and always lived slightly below their means!

****************************************
Put your $$$’s into hiring a professional advisor!! Sheesh!

#147 G on 04.02.20 at 5:52 pm

#91, re: …meanwhile, back in Canada?

I hope the Doctors and Health Minister are listening to the promising treatment results some Doctor is having with low 3 cost($20USD) drug treatments that are keeping people alive and most out of hospitals.
Sounds like some should be given the treatment early and not just be sent home to either get better or worse on there own. See link

I now believe this lock down might end much sooner than you think, especially if they find treatments than greatly reduces death and keep people out of hospital in the very small % that get very sick. And there seems to be a low cost treatment that does just that. But of course zinc and the other 2 drugs don’t have big profit margins for some.

Personally I started drinking some ‘tonic water’ with a ‘zinc’ vitamin each day. chloroquine help more zinc get into your cells. The zinc interferes with virus replication machinery. And C&D3.

Most people will be fine regardless, mild flu or no symptoms at all ~80% thankfully.
The 20% that might need some extra oxygen, of that very smaller % might need more help like ventilators maybe. If this Dr. findings are not just an anomaly…

If sick people are treated early with these 3 low cost drugs/mineral, they seems to be keeping his patients either out of hospital and/or alive. see link.

Interview with a Doctor in NY city treating people with COVID19.
EXCELLENT NEWS: Hydroxychloroquine Treatment Effective on 699 Patients (starts @1:27) 41min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TJdjhd_XG8&t=1209s

Also in the news, I’m glade to see Trump has declared war on the drug cartels who’s profits are used buy and for…

Saw something about some ‘Q’ guy, but it was April 1 and probably has no basis in fact? Also being it was April 1 maybe the reports some test kits from China are faulty or contaminated with it are also not correct?

#148 Karherine on 04.02.20 at 5:53 pm

#95 Larry Laffer
And do not blame the media for reporting what you’ve failed to see for the past month. Health care experts are worth listening to. Properly deal with the health crisis first, then try restarting the economy when Covid-19 gets under control.

Well said!!!! Can’t agree more! The sooner we all listen and follow the instructions of our health experts and leaders, the sooner this will be over and we can smile about our portfolios.

#149 Katherine on 04.02.20 at 5:54 pm

Excuse typo in my name

#150 John Dimas on 04.02.20 at 5:58 pm

The U.S. with all it’s money printing and bailouts the Dow, S&P 500 etc. equity markets could only achieve around a 7% to 8% annual return since their 2000 highs to 2020 highs. Now at best 5% to 6% annual returns with the 30% or so haircut.

This used to be happen easily in down markets and a so so growing economy. It looks like in 2020’s is going to be a lost decade or a really low return decade 2% to 35 annual returns at best.

#151 MF on 04.02.20 at 5:58 pm

#5 Keen Reader on 04.02.20 at 12:55 pm

“Still, no one’s life is so priceless as to bankrupt one’s own family and impose financial hardship on future generations. I’m all for flattening the curve, but with reasonable and effective measures.”

-It’s not that easy. What are those reasonable and effective measures you speak of?

How do you get to decide whose life is priceless and whose isn’t?

Lets go back to January, when the fear of the unknown was causing people to demand drastic measures. Well here we are. Sorry to say but most people support the lockdown and understand why it’s occurring.

If your gripe with the situation is mostly financial, then you should have been paying attention, objecting, and preparing for the last decade as the stage was being set for the current mess.

MF

#152 Faron on 04.02.20 at 5:59 pm

#89 Deplorable Dude on 04.02.20 at 4:18 pm

$67 Faron “–It’s called model uncertainty”

“WE SHUT DOWN THE FRICKING PLANET……”

Who is this “we”? Do you think there’s a conspiracy? Some cabal? Some deep state maybe that got together and planned this all out? The Illuminati? If you think that, you are deluded. Look at how the last few months have evolved. Everyone is behind the curve and everyone is doing what appears to save the most lives.

“For actions this drastic governments better be pretty damn sure of their figures.”

The actions are drastic because the risks associated with a path of inaction are extremely high. Also, humans tend to downplay the risks and likelihood of something bad happening. In an ideal world weighing risk against probability would be a major factor in making decisions. Take driving your car. You have a roughly 1/8000 chance of dying in a car accident each year. Over a life, the odds are 1 in 100. The risk to you is infinite — death — but everyone thinks the chances are miniscule so they continue to drive.

In the COVID case the probability of catastrophe is high if a course of inaction is taken. The risk of said catastrophe to human life (and the economy) is extreme relative to the risks associated with the path we are on.

Don’t forget that If 1-5% of the population gets deleted, there would be a major economic impact from that disaster as well.

#153 yvr_lurker on 04.02.20 at 6:05 pm

#125

Why did China knowingly allow it to get out? Hey, if their economy is going down, the rest of world should share in the pain as well. Is that not communism, share the pain with everyone. Even to this day, their claim of no cases is bogus. Real fake news.

—————————–

I agree with this completely. The west should have done what Taiwan did in January. Completey shut down all travel to/from China. Taiwan has always been deeply suspicious of the accuracy of reports coming from China, and they had a bad history with SARS. Such a shutdown would have required a coordinated approach between countries. As we have witnessed, the virus in the U.S. has essentially travelled around the world arriving in NYC from Europe. Without a FAST coodinated approach between countries we were doomed from the outset. Hopefully, going forward Govt’s will view the potential of pandemics and how to respond to them in a vigorous and coodinated way. This won’t be the last one if we stay on the track we have been on with rampant globalization

#154 Trojan House on 04.02.20 at 6:08 pm

The UN released a report today calling for: “A large-scale, coordinated and comprehensive multilateral response amounting to at least 10 per cent of global GDP is needed now more than ever.”

https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_report_socio-economic_impact_of_covid19.pdf

So now the UN wants to tax us as well.

#155 Don Guillermo on 04.02.20 at 6:10 pm

#144 yvr_lurker on 04.02.20 at 5:51 pm

Also in the news, I’m glade to see Trump has declared war on the drug cartels who’s profits are used buy and for…

******************************************
If it wasn’t for these cartels Netflix would be quite boring …

#156 MF on 04.02.20 at 6:14 pm

#151 Faron on 04.02.20 at 5:59 pm

“In the COVID case the probability of catastrophe is high if a course of inaction is taken. The risk of said catastrophe to human life (and the economy) is extreme relative to the risks associated with the path we are on.

Don’t forget that If 1-5% of the population gets deleted, there would be a major economic impact from that disaster as well.”

-Shhh. You are speaking too much truth. You’re going to be shunned for “drinking the kool-aid” by a bunch of invincible E-tough guys with decades old super human immunity, who are obviously smarter than a 2 billion year old pathogen.

—————————————————————–
NoName,

Hope you got my response from Garth’s last post.

MF

#157 HH on 04.02.20 at 6:16 pm

@ conan

“Normal breath – 2 foot spread
talking- 5-10 foot spread
singing- 10 -20 foot spread
yelling- 20-25 foot spread…”

Yep… Much talk here about what customs and aspects of daily life will need to change now. This is my favourite.

We shall all practice the ancient, fine, civilised, much neglected and all-but-forgotten art of *** shutting one’s gob ***.

Or at least talking quietly for a change. Especially in public.

#158 bill hilly on 04.02.20 at 6:20 pm

Damn some of you folks are dark.

#159 Reality is stark on 04.02.20 at 6:21 pm

So now we get to negotiate with the teachers.
They are pulling in their full wages for not going to work while everyone else takes a 50% wage cut if they are lucky to have a job. What would you pay them? Would you continue to subsidize their gold plated pension?
An institution which pumps out social justice warriors taught to financially rape in family court doesn’t serve anyone.
Just because our future is with highly intelligent healthy immigrants does not give our teachers a free pass to do a lousy job indoctrinating socialist mediocrity.
If they don’t want to work for 25% less and no matching to their pension plan hire a brand new energetic workforce that emphasis individual accountability.
Teaching children that they are victims when it is convenient and ultimately they are not responsible for anything is reprehensible.

#160 Flop... on 04.02.20 at 6:24 pm

Now what was that old saying again?

Never let a good virus go to waste…

M45BC

#161 Flop... on 04.02.20 at 6:31 pm

Flop’s Corona Virus Song Of The Day.

Europe.

The Final Countdown…

M45BC

A snippet.

We’re leaving together,
But still it’s farewell
And maybe we’ll come back
To earth, who can tell?

I guess there is no one to blame
We’re leaving ground (leaving ground)
Will things ever be the same again?

It’s the final countdown
The final countdown.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw

#162 Barb on 04.02.20 at 6:37 pm

“Ottawa is bailing them out. The holiday folks are being given $5,000 loans to pay for lodging and food.”

————————————————-

Is it just me or are we all utterly stunned that people who were so close to the edge of zero dollars would go on a (presumably pricey) vacation? We’re not talking 50 miles away…we’re talking other countries.

No room on their credit card?
My gawd, how careless and stoooooopid some people are to have no emergency cash/credit.
I’d leave them in their safari treehouses.

Money handouts everywhere. Numerous posters said that savers are being punished. After Garth’s post, I believe it now too.

Government is going insane, obviously led by their most talented.

#163 BelKel on 04.02.20 at 6:37 pm

Re: A virus 95% of victims recover from has nonetheless created public panic.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

The largest cohort of >44,000 persons with COVID-19 from China showed that illness severity can range from mild to critical:

Mild to moderate (mild symptoms up to mild pneumonia): 81%
Severe (dyspnea, hypoxia, or >50% lung involvement on imaging): 14%
Critical (respiratory failure, shock, or multiorgan system dysfunction): 5%

To have a chance to ‘recover’, need hospital capacity.

#164 not 1st on 04.02.20 at 6:39 pm

You guys do know that more than a 800K kids go missing every year in the US and not a peep from the hysterical hypocritical MSM. Never see anyone crying on camera for that. 2000 kids a day and they don’t even put them on milk cartons anymore.

The general public has such a warped view of the real world. Its sad really. Such a low information society.

#165 HH on 04.02.20 at 6:42 pm

I am going to go off topic and throw some investment-related musings into this virus blog.

One asset that disappoints me bitterly these days is gold.

A while back I heeded the goldbugs and got a 5% slice of it into my portfolio. As a hedge against Armageddon, you know. Cause it was supposed to do so well during tough times.

And when markets sank this spring, it merely held. Then started sinking. I managed to sell at damn near cost and use proceeds to buy up suddenly cheap stock ETFs. So it basically did the job of cash in my portfolio.

But I expected it to be do so much better than cash… I thought that when times were tough, gold would soar like a big-ass bird and give me a fat profit!

Theory being, that when there is blood in the streets and people are scared, everyone runs out and buys gold.

Instead everyone ran ought and bought toilet paper.

Duh! That’s it. I am so done with the barbarous relic.
So much for it performing well during crisis times.

You just can’t wipe yourself with a gold brick.

That’s one home truth I’ve learned from this mess…
In fact, I think I’ve discovered the following new investment law-of-nature for myself:

“If you cannot wipe yourself with it, it is NOT a true safe haven asset.”

That’s why paper cash is the ultimate safe haven. In most Zimbabwe-like hell of devaluation and inflation, you can still find one use for it…

#166 Barb on 04.02.20 at 6:50 pm

#7 Roial1 on 04.02.20 at 12:59 pm

Well. got our new dog yesterday. She’s a beauty. 75lb. of companionship but more to come as she is only a year old.
————————————————-

You are one lucky duckie! (Been w/o a dog for 4 yrs).

Sounds like she’s going to be a very large dog…and with love, thoughtful training and good food, she’ll treasure you and yours for many years.

#167 Penny Henny on 04.02.20 at 6:50 pm

#109 Shawn Allen on 04.02.20 at 5:00 pm
How to Stop the spread

#21 conan on 04.02.20 at 1:37 pm
Experts are now saying that Covid 19 is spread from breathing. A lot of people with Corona have no symptoms. The walking Corona invasion.

Normal breath – 2 foot spread
talking- 5-10 foot spread
singing- 10 -20 foot spread
yelling- 20-25 foot spread

*******************************
So… Speak only softly and carry a long stick
//////////

I need investors!
I’ve developed a social distance whacking stick (a yard stick). Hold the stick at arms length and if you can reach anyone with it then whack um.
Available online for only $9.99. Ladies models also available for slightly more (they are longer).

#168 Attrition on 04.02.20 at 6:50 pm

How’s FIRE working out again?

From today’s NYT:

Earlier this month, Eric Richard was in Bali, Indonesia, enjoying the tropical weather and carefree life of a retiree. Last summer, at 29, Mr. Richard had quit his job as a corporate operations manager to become a “digital nomad.”

Now he is hunkered down at his parents’ house in Michigan, having returned to the United States as concerns over the coronavirus outbreak grew and travel bans were put in place around the world. He is in self-isolation as a precaution. And in recent weeks, he said, he has seen his net worth drop by more than $100,000.

“It’s definitely not a great feeling, to say the least,” Mr. Richard said.

He is an adherent of the FIRE movement, the personal finance strategy popular among millennials. It stands for “financial independence, retire early.”

I remember Garth pointing out, on several occasions, that retiring at 40 was a bad idea for several reasons.

Q: Where are those couple of guys who kept arguing with him on this?

A: In the basement of a house they don’t own, on a couch they didn’t buy.

#169 Nonplused on 04.02.20 at 6:51 pm

#38 S on 04.02.20 at 2:17 pm
Having said all that do you still feel that those who advocated holding gold as part of their investment, especially physical metal, were misguided?

Yes. – Garth

——————-

As they say in trading circles, “Even a blind squirrel finds the odd nut.”

People who bought gold say in 2006 did quite well, but it is a speculative investment. And there are liquid physical funds like CEF so taking delivery or buying a stack of coins isn’t worth the effort. About the only place you can sell them is at the Scotia Bank bullion desk. You can sell silver coins at a coin shop but expect pawn shop type discounts. Unless the coin is collectible, you’l get about 50% of the melt value.

Gold will never be used as cash again. I think it was Mark Dice who did a video some years ago where he was trying to sell a one ounce $50 gold coin on the street for face value (so $50) and nobody would take him up on it. At that time I think the coin was worth about $1000. But people don’t know what it is. Even though they will pay many times what a coin costs per ounce for a ring or necklace.

#170 BobC on 04.02.20 at 6:53 pm

this is a great video for those of you that thinks fake news is deliberate.
It made by an recent ex tv news reporter that tells how it really is. Some real surprises in it.

https://youtu.be/HqI84i345Cw

#171 Flop... on 04.02.20 at 6:53 pm

[email protected] 70

Do you have any recommendations for what fabric to use? I’ve got a pretty varied scrap box.

/////////////////

Hey Kurt.

I work in a dusty workplace.

Sometimes I rock a n95 mask.

Whenever I run out of masks, I wear a bandana from the dollar store, like I’m about to rob s bank.

Desperate times, desperate measures.

I wouldn’t bother making anything, bandana works well.

$1.40 with tax.

Buy a few, wash after each use…

M45BC

#172 Kurt on 04.02.20 at 7:00 pm

Thanks for the ideas, flop!

#173 Lee on 04.02.20 at 7:03 pm

For those of you who believe Covid19 is no big deal, you have to ask yourself why China went so nuts trying to contain it?

#174 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 7:04 pm

@#160 Floppie
“Never let a good virus go to waste…”

++++
I think it was the other way around.

“Never let good waste go to virus..”

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/rest-stops-barring-washroom-access-to-truckers-a-huge-problem-as-virus-spreads-1.4874430

#175 Why Bother on 04.02.20 at 7:04 pm

What motivation is there to be responsible and save? It seems the system is rewarding people and corporations for being short sighted. The ones who’ve been sacrificing and saving continue to get the short end of the stick. Let people borrow from their registered savings or issue bailouts in the form of loans (individuals and businesses alike). All this encourages one to leave the country but where do you go that is any better?

#176 oh bouy on 04.02.20 at 7:05 pm

@#164 not 1st on 04.02.20 at 6:39 pm
You guys do know that more than a 800K kids go missing every year in the US and not a peep from the hysterical hypocritical MSM. Never see anyone crying on camera for that. 2000 kids a day and they don’t even put them on milk cartons anymore.

The general public has such a warped view of the real world. Its sad really. Such a low information society.
_______________________________________

don’t even try to reason man.
you’ll be corona shamed into submission.
let the lemmings go over the edge.

#177 Sydneysider on 04.02.20 at 7:09 pm

#2 NFN_NLN

I feel the best strategy right now is to buy CAD-hedged Canadian ETFs that invest in the US equities (e.g. XQQ rather than QQQ).

Reasoning:

CAD is abnormally low at present. When in future it rises a bit, an unhedged Canadian ETF will lose a corresponding chunk of value in CAD terms, even if NASDAQ stays unchanged. Hedging protects from this.

But if you choose to convert to USD, you should use Norbert’s Gambit to eliminate most of the exchange fees. If you buy US equity now in strong USD your capital gains in CAD will be reduced if the CAD is higher than today at the time of sale (typically the case near the top of the market).

#178 islander on 04.02.20 at 7:10 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/catastrophe-sweden-coronavirus-stoicism-lockdown-europe

Let’s keep an eye on blasé Sweden…

“Panic, though, is exactly what many within Sweden’s scientific and medical community are starting to feel. A petition signed by more than 2,000 doctors, scientists, and professors last week – including the chairman of the Nobel Foundation, Prof Carl-Henrik Heldin – called on the government to introduce more stringent containment measures. “We’re not testing enough, we’re not tracking, we’re not isolating enough – we have let the virus loose,” said Prof Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, a virus immunology researcher at the Karolinska Institute. “They are leading us to catastrophe.”

#179 Jager on 04.02.20 at 7:11 pm

With record amounts of debt (incl. record levels of unfunded liabilities) and record low interest rates it’s a certainty that a longer term recovery is baked into the cake. i.e. How do you now effectively stimulate the economy?

Further, taking old debt off the books to create new debt is simply blowing the monster bubble even bigger. Been there, done that. Remember: at some point the old debt must be reintroduced/addressed.

What happens if the Fed (now the worlds central bank) loses control and interest rates skyrocket? Will the debt bubble finally (after all these years of inflating) gravitationally collapse into a blackhole?

How could it not? And the plan then?

#180 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 7:13 pm

@#148 Karherine

I was listening to your argument because I thought you were Russian or something…..

Then………. I realized you misspelled your name….
inexcusable.
Sooo disappointed.
Mr Fartz signing off.

#181 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 7:17 pm

@#175 Why Bother?
“What motivation is there to be responsible and save? ”

+++++

Self respect?
Or we could all just accepted our egregiously over taxed fate and quick working, paint our teeth grey and beg for money in front of the liquor store.
What the hell.
Tax free income.

#182 Questions, Musings and Ramblings on 04.02.20 at 7:19 pm

If we were quarantined for 2 weeks
And if it takes 2 weeks of self isolation to know that you’re not sick or to recover from mild Covid-19
And if a peak is some 2 weeks away
Does that mean that maximum infections are happening right about now? After 2 weeks of isolation?
****

Am I the only one hoping that after 1 month of quarantine, the person coming up sick (only the 80% or milder cases) will have to complete a 10 page questionnaire about his/her whereabouts and habits – so conclusions can be drawn where the hot spots are and how this virus is still spreading?
****

I know there are plenty of models for infection spread rate going up – is there one for the rate going down after the peak based on length of self isolation?
****

3 months mean roughly 6 – two week – periods. What are we looking for at the end of the 3 months to conclude we are safe to return to normalcy? What’s the end game?
Zero infections?
No more money in the coffers?
Last virus dying in a ditch under CBC supervision?
Most people cope best if they have a definitive line they can pull to.

#183 Nonplused on 04.02.20 at 7:21 pm

#56 Okay another Story on 04.02.20 at 3:17 pm
Yikes do not like this post, but the truth is hard to swallow.
Anyway let’s have a smile
We had a run on hand sanitizers, masks, and toilet paper.
And now drum role please, general manger at Canadian Tire told me there is no no home gym equipment in the stores shelves are bare.
Too funny, cannot pay the rent but can buy gym equipment.

——————-

More likely the gym equipment comes, or highly depends on parts, from China.

Even Apple is having trouble coming up with their own iPhones because they are assembled in China.

Which leads to tinfoil-hat theory of the day: We had to shut down the economy not because of Covid but because there were no products to sell coming from China. The real reason Ford had to shut down is that they ran out of parts.

I have a nice (well, at the time) Norco bike. “Designed in Canada, made in China” it says. Norco are out of business now because it turns out they can design bikes in China now too. They just copied the design.

Perhaps all this offshoring is the real problem. In addition to all of the things Garth talked about today, I think supply lines and the value of local labor will also be a subject for future consideration. Imagine how many jobs are coming back to Detroit and Windsor if Ford and GM decide they cannot rely on Chinese imports of parts? And this is across all products. I have a pair of K2 skis, that is a California company, that similar to my bike says “designed in California, made in China”. Do the people who make them in China even know what they are for? They certainly aren’t buying any at $800 a pop. And that isn’t any less than they cost when they were made in California. I mean, to understand a ski, you just need to look at an old Canadian Tire catalog. Or maybe see an old one mounted on the wall in a pub. It is a fine piece of wood free of knots carved a certain way with steel edges on it (nailed at that time but glued now). Add paint for a modern ski. We can’t do that here? We have trees.

The take-away tinfoil-hat theory is this: Supply chains and the value of local labor will also be reconsidered, and localized.

#184 Ustabe on 04.02.20 at 7:23 pm

…If it wasn’t for these cartels Netflix would be quite boring …

Tiger King! You have to chew past the first two or three episodes but man oh man does it get going after that. 10/10.

~~~~~~~~~

you know how McDonalds brags about its billions and billions of hamburgers served? Yesterday I ordered 500 Big Macs at the drive through and they couldn’t/wouldn’t do it.

Similar logic at the local, non chain pizza place…order 50 pies and the first ones out are cold before the last ones in the oven even begin cooking.

~~~~~~
Some of all of you all need to give your morning meds a chance to kick in before you start typing. Guns, bullets, shot shells, acceptable numbers of allowable deaths?

Then this guy:
#18 Megaman on 04.02.20 at 1:31 pm

People selling masks and handsan got busted yesterday in Richmond bc and yet just slapped with a fine most likely not from Canada instead of putting them in jail and give them the death penalty teach them a f in lesson

Not only published but only commented on by one other poster. What are you allowing yourselves to become?

Those of you getting a new dog…I’m sure you will be doing everything in your power to prevent the transmission of parvo, right?
Treat your dogs better than your fellow man because preexisting conditions allow that moral leap in your world?

#185 Lord Falkland on 04.02.20 at 7:31 pm

I know people that are layed off, have a lot of savings, but still applied for the deferral. Sounds odd but still food for thought!

#186 The Mrs on 04.02.20 at 7:31 pm

Thank you for taking the time to write everyday Garth, we appreciate it very much. Your advice has been sage and helpful.
We wish you, Dorothy and all the staff (and their families) at Turner Investments good health and happiness always, but especially during this difficult time. Hugs and kisses to Bandit. XO

#187 Flop... on 04.02.20 at 7:32 pm

Crowdie
@#160 Floppie
“Never let a good virus go to waste…”

++++
I think it was the other way around.

“Never let good waste go to virus..”

/////////////////

Hey Crowdie, yeah I saw that story.

My line was a play on the saying never let a good crisis go to waste.

Please tell me you got it, because if you stop getting my Southern Hemisphere humour, then I’ll know all hell has really broken loose.

Farting in elevators.

You were ahead of your time in unsocial distancing…

M45BC

#188 Zed on 04.02.20 at 7:34 pm

Garth,

Do you think that the GST should be increased back to 7% or even higher to finance the fiscal imbalance in Ottawa?

I believe that if the GST had remained at that rate, the mad consumption in the country would have been reduced and the federal government would have had much more money now to play with. Consumption tax is much more honest, progressive (the rich spend more) and much easier to administer than all those tax brackets, shelters, exemptions and so on.

#189 Sold Out on 04.02.20 at 7:34 pm

#167 Penny Henny on 04.02.20 at 6:50 pm

I need investors!
I’ve developed a social distance whacking stick (a yard stick). Hold the stick at arms length and if you can reach anyone with it then whack um.
Available online for only $9.99. Ladies models also available for slightly more (they are longer).

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Tell the truth…

The men’s and women’s models are the same length; you just tell the women that their model is 42″.

We aren’t fooled. Ever.

#190 Fishie on 04.02.20 at 7:40 pm

#34 Handsome Ned, If only this were true, but your analogy is misaligned. This is not about the upper class versus the lower class. This is about people not living responsibly for too many years. In your analogy, it would be accurate to say some saved their earnings and bought the life vest and seat on the lifeboat, while others chose to spend those savings at the bar. People who have true hardships should be taken care of during these hard times, its only right. But the fools who spent foolishly in good times should not look to those who were responsible as elitists.

#191 Deplorable Dude on 04.02.20 at 7:43 pm

#152 Faron..

If we’re going drop a nuclear bomb on our nation’s economy to “flatten the curve” based on the projections of a single model, it shouldn’t be too much to ask that the model approximate reality when it comes to hospitalizations

….and not be off by over 300% outside of the model’s error range.

#192 oh bouy on 04.02.20 at 7:45 pm

@#170 BobC on 04.02.20 at 6:53 pm
this is a great video for those of you that thinks fake news is deliberate.
It made by an recent ex tv news reporter that tells how it really is. Some real surprises in it.

https://youtu.be/HqI84i345Cw
______________________________

oh man, you got me.
can’t believe I clicked on that tripe lol.

#193 Wuhan we got y'all in check on 04.02.20 at 7:49 pm

LTRFTW on 04.02.20 at 4:00 pm
All the rules have changed, anything is possible.
Our instant world demand instant action. Stay with the herd and you’ll be OK. If you all run off the cliff, at least you won’t die alone.

To paraphrase Gordon Gekko – people follow the herd like sheep, and sheep get slaughtered

#194 YouKnowWho on 04.02.20 at 7:49 pm

#35 down and out on 04.02.20 at 2:14 pm

You saying Brad Lamb lead me wrong on my 20% return on the condo?

—————————-

File a law suit!

#195 oh bouy on 04.02.20 at 7:50 pm

@#168 Attrition on 04.02.20 at 6:50 pm
How’s FIRE working out again?

From today’s NYT:

Earlier this month, Eric Richard was in Bali, Indonesia, enjoying the tropical weather and carefree life of a retiree. Last summer, at 29, Mr. Richard had quit his job as a corporate operations manager to become a “digital nomad.”

Now he is hunkered down at his parents’ house in Michigan, having returned to the United States as concerns over the coronavirus outbreak grew and travel bans were put in place around the world. He is in self-isolation as a precaution. And in recent weeks, he said, he has seen his net worth drop by more than $100,000.

“It’s definitely not a great feeling, to say the least,” Mr. Richard said.

He is an adherent of the FIRE movement, the personal finance strategy popular among millennials. It stands for “financial independence, retire early.”

I remember Garth pointing out, on several occasions, that retiring at 40 was a bad idea for several reasons.

Q: Where are those couple of guys who kept arguing with him on this?

A: In the basement of a house they don’t own, on a couch they didn’t buy.
____________________________________

to be fair, i think this – some would call a black swan event – will mess up more than a few lifestyles.
at least the dude is young enough to build it back up.
I’d hate to be a middle-aged or older fella with no $$$s and lots a debt.

#196 oh bouy on 04.02.20 at 7:50 pm

@#175 Why Bother on 04.02.20 at 7:04 pm
What motivation is there to be responsible and save?
_____________________

your own self-worth?

#197 Sail Away on 04.02.20 at 7:53 pm

#177 Sydneysider on 04.02.20 at 7:09 pm

—————–

Re: CAD vs USD

I’m curious: why would you think the Canadian dollar would increase in strength? It’s steadily done the opposite for the last 13-14 years… and Canada’s business climate is continually declining in relation to US as well.

#198 Cbo on 04.02.20 at 7:58 pm

I work for a multi national. One of our VP’s, mid 50’s contracted Covid 2 weeks ago. Based in Chicago.
Spent 10 days in ICU.
He was given Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin.
3 days after treatment he felt normal again.
5 days after treatment he was fit for release.
Back at work same week. I spoke w him last night to wish him well. He was eager to get back on calls.
It will be hard to kill American capitalism.

#199 dutch4505 on 04.02.20 at 7:59 pm

I need an answer. A budget deficit of 180 billion. How much of that will come back to the government or governments (provincial, civic) within 12 months in tax revenue?

None. – Garth

#200 Reynolds753 on 04.02.20 at 8:22 pm

#110 The Wet One on 04.02.20 at 5:01 pm
So we’ve hit a bit of a milestone today.
There are 1,000,000 confirmed infections at this time https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (April 2, 2020 at 1:24 p.m.)
________________________________________________________________

The call, you ask for? This is the proverbial rock and a hard place, damned if you and damned if you don’t question. I suspect that somehow we shall muddle through.

The call is akin to Heisenberg and his Uncertainty Principle. You can either know the velocity or the location of a particle. You cannot know both.

We can damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead and go on as best we can prior to any lock downs and social isolation measures. All can go back to their gainful employment and lives, such as they have become. The big downside risk is a continuation of infection: no curve blunting. Let it rip. Most will develop some sort of herd immunity. A significant minority will die, mostly older people, people with co-morbidities and men. An even larger portion, although a minority of cases, will go on to develop significant health issues especially lung/pulmonary problems. There may well be some relatively short lived chaos especially when health care resources are overwhelmed with what might well be a tidal wave of associated problems. Not a very pretty picture and many might have great difficulty in accepting this scenario. The economy will, no doubt, suffer acutely. Long term? Who can predict? We may be able to get some sort of economic normalcy albeit diminished.

The next option is to listen to the health care professionals especially those with solid knowledge in epidemiology and infectious diseases. The only skin that they have in this game is science and good statistics that can predicate outcomes. If the issue is survival of most of the population, they will advocate the position of lock down and social isolation for as long as it takes. How long? Until the case load becomes miniscule. There will be, of course, tremendous economic and social dislocation in doing so. We are just witnessing the tip of this iceberg. The upside: most of the population may well survive. The big hope in this is developing a specific Covid-19 vaccine and allowing proven therapies to work. There is no guarantee of a successful vaccine. I listened to an excellent medical education seminar today from Johns Hopkins and to date, there are no proven therapies. Some anecdotal, small study stuff and nothing, I repeat, nothing definitive. No doubt, much economic hardship will be experienced.

The third option: some sort of slow release, sustained mixture of the two extremes. Perhaps we can know a little bit of the speed and a little bit of the location. This would require some sort of proof of infection and subsequent immunity in the population. This may well be accomplished by checking for sera antibodies specifically IgM and IgG antibodies to Covid-19. This would allow this segment of the population with immunity to go back to work and resume a normal life. Of course, strict isolation of those not exposed to the virus or those without proof of immunity would need to be maintained. This is not easy and it can be done. Again, the hope of a vaccine would greatly speed this process up. There would still be significant economic and social upheaval. There may still well be significant, if less, medical costs involved with morbidity and mortality.

My call, then? No easy answers and there will be significant costs incurred no matter what is done. We will muddle through.

#201 Reality Check 2020 on 04.02.20 at 8:25 pm

1 M cases worldwide, 50k died, that does not mean 5% of death rate. You should only count the 262k CLOSED cases of which 51K died. That’s actually 20% death rate

Bogus. Fully 95% of active cases are mild and will lead to full recovery. Please tell us you are not really an accountant. – Garth

——————————

More like 5 M cases or more already. Probably closer to 10 M. This thing started spreading worldwide way before mid January. Do you know how many people fly from China to Vancouver, Toronto, NY, LA and a million other cities on any given day? People were spreading this for quite a while before anyone even knew there was an issue in Asia.

Also, have you tried to get a test? Not going to happen unless you’re very sick in most countries. There are at least 5x or 10x the amount of people who currently have or have already had this than the stats are telling us.

The death rate will likely be well under 1% when the real numbers finally come in. Unless of course the real numbers NEVER come in.

#202 shawn on 04.02.20 at 8:25 pm

So people will never learn if the government will come to the rescue. After all this they will just go back to living paycheck to paycheck, maxing out credit cards, buying things they don’t need. I hope the CRA takes the money back over time every tax year.

#203 Raging Ranter on 04.02.20 at 8:25 pm

@#179 Jager:

Shhh. Nobody wants to talk about that. Only doomers and gold bugs worry about that nonsense. We’re all investors here, and we believe in the omnipotence of central banks, and the power of the printing press to generate a return. The Fed will raise markets by force of will. They’ve done it every time since 1987. Yet you still think there are limits? Don’t be such a buzzkill by asking uncomfortable questions.

Price discovery is for losers. Don’t fight the Fed.

#204 NoName on 04.02.20 at 8:27 pm

@MF of course we are friends, but isee what you did there.

#205 Keen Reader on 04.02.20 at 8:29 pm

@ MF on 04.02.20 at 5:58 pm

The measures are what Korea did and keeps doing, as I wrote. Also, I’m not deciding whose life is priceless; I actually stated that none is.

Most people supporting the lockdown? Many here today don’t seem to agree with ongoing measures. A timely lockdown may help; the horses have left the barn, killing the economy now is definitely questionable.

Finally, I am semi-retired and work mostly for fun, enjoying the many contributions I still make; no financial worries whatsoever. My gripe is the massive debt developing, in addition to immediate impact to families. We could do better, learning from our Asian counterparts, instead of dismissing their effective measures on the basis of cultural differences, as repeatedly stated by western authorities. It didn’t have to be this way, to quote “Peak Prosperity”.

Be well !

#206 Coho on 04.02.20 at 8:32 pm

While acknowledging the world has changed, people at the same time think this too will pass. The road has become rough. Covid-19 is a major pothole amongst many smaller ones. Govts in concert with MSM are milking it for all its worth. If it is deliberately over-hyped then we are victims of deception. If it is not then we are victims of a mutating virus with over 40 known strains that was possibly deliberately unleased on the world to bring about change that could only benefit evil. Either way we’re pooched. Can we really trust that the road will smoothen out again? It appears the opposite is more likely in that this is the beginning of the unravelling.

Still, there are some people complaining that the irresponsible (insert deplorables if you wish) ones–those with nothing are getting government assistance whereas they are not because they have something. Such small minded pettiness abounds even when society is crumbling.

Of course we will recover. Normal may be different, but this is not the unraveling of society. Imagine how people felt after four years of horrible, costly war, then a pandemic that took 50 million lives. The world recovered. A new normal. Give your head a shake. We have lost perspective, in our soft lives. – Garth

#207 OK, Doomer on 04.02.20 at 8:37 pm

#163 BelKel on 04.02.20 at 6:37 pm
Re: A virus 95% of victims recover from has nonetheless created public panic.

++++++++++++++++++

The stats on this thing are irrelevant to misleading so far. Anyone whose taken STATS 101 knows that the numbers published daily are useless. The only stats that mean anything are how many people died each day. That’s it. The rest of the figures have no context and mean nothing. I’m sure the government has better #’s but don’t think the public can understand them.

Try us. You might be surprised.

My big concern is that the lack of data has potentially caused a massive amount of economic damage, a goodly chunk which may be permanent. For all we know the actual recovery rate may be 99.5%, in which case we’ve tanked the economy for nothing.

#208 YouKnowWho on 04.02.20 at 8:38 pm

So 75 out of 131 deaths are in these seniors homes?

And how the hell did 600 homes get hit? Did it get shipped by FedEx? So smart this Covid – knows the addresses where to go to get results.

#209 Wrk.dover on 04.02.20 at 8:38 pm

It must be bad when they don’t bully me over my having brain dead GIC’s right now.

From the same brainiac, maybe make masks from vacum cleaner bag material at home. (Red Greenesque)

#210 Stone on 04.02.20 at 8:40 pm

#168 Attrition on 04.02.20 at 6:50 pm
How’s FIRE working out again?

From today’s NYT:

Earlier this month, Eric Richard was in Bali, Indonesia, enjoying the tropical weather and carefree life of a retiree. Last summer, at 29, Mr. Richard had quit his job as a corporate operations manager to become a “digital nomad.”

Now he is hunkered down at his parents’ house in Michigan, having returned to the United States as concerns over the coronavirus outbreak grew and travel bans were put in place around the world. He is in self-isolation as a precaution. And in recent weeks, he said, he has seen his net worth drop by more than $100,000.

“It’s definitely not a great feeling, to say the least,” Mr. Richard said.

He is an adherent of the FIRE movement, the personal finance strategy popular among millennials. It stands for “financial independence, retire early.”

I remember Garth pointing out, on several occasions, that retiring at 40 was a bad idea for several reasons.

Q: Where are those couple of guys who kept arguing with him on this?

A: In the basement of a house they don’t own, on a couch they didn’t buy.

———

Strange how you’re only focusing on the one guy in the article. The others quoted in the article appear to be just fine. Even for that one guy, he said he lost $100,000, we don’t have the full picture. $100,000 lost based on how much total? $3 million or $300,000? Who knows.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/style/fire-movement-stock-market-coronavirus.html

I’ve lost six figures on my net worth and I’m in my mid-forties. Does it hurt? Sure, like anyone else. Does it break me financially? Nope. I still have 7 figures pretty much all in ETFs. I’m down -12.17% right now so not earth shattering. My Poverty Portfolio is just fine.

Overall, the article is pretty biased with very few numbers to back up what they’re trying to sell here. For sure, some idiots who do lean FIRE decided to cut corners, others leveraged themselves to hell on real estate and potentially on Airbnb. Those are the idiots but they’re the same type who buy crypto, or gold and silver bullion and think they can make bank in 12-18 months and then crap out. The other ones who thought it through are just fine. They just don’t make a good MSM news article.

#211 Faron on 04.02.20 at 8:41 pm

Two things:

How in heck is the stock market shaking off what appears to be more and more news that this economic gap/freeze/whatever is going to have major and lasting effects that could be multi-year?

Global MSCI sits at 2017 levels. 3 years at a generous 3% global GDP growth says that at base the economy is 10-12% bigger. Global stocks have grown at ~6% annual, so should be 18% higher. We are currently 14% below that. Is that 14% actually going to stand as the stock market impact of the biggest fiscal shock in global history? One that still appears to be unfathomed by many? Or are enough people clinging to the glory days of 6 weeks ago that the market is holding on juuuuust a liiiitle longer? I’m a doomsayer but I think this is why folks look at the 50day running mean. 50days is about how long it takes for people to really wake up to their situation. For it to really sink in.

Sorry for the doom. I need to get off of the internet.

#212 robert james on 04.02.20 at 8:44 pm

Trump supporters make me think of the old Bob Newhart show… “This my brother Darryl and my other brother Darryl”.. [icon_lol2.gif] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnZm-9TfSaA

#213 BigAl (original) on 04.02.20 at 8:47 pm

For the most part on here I see the typical conservative hopeless romantics peddling their tired “whoa is me” tripe. Yes yes, we know, no one works harder than you, everyone is out to get you, and to ‘fake news’ lie about you. Oh yes, almost forgot to paint in the required heartfelt rugged farmer/soldier/survivalist or whatever. Stuck between these romantic snowflakes and the kooky antifa nutbars, what is the average decent (actually) hard-working nuclear family to do? The western psychological landscape increasingly buries its realities in myth and games, looting its own treasury, while the world tilts east.

#214 Renter's Revenge! on 04.02.20 at 8:49 pm

Ohhhh I get it.

We’re all ants here, right?

#215 Stone on 04.02.20 at 8:50 pm

#192 Stone on 04.02.20 at 8:40 pm
#168 Attrition on 04.02.20 at 6:50 pm
How’s FIRE working out again?

From today’s NYT:

Earlier this month, Eric Richard was in Bali, Indonesia, enjoying the tropical weather and carefree life of a retiree. Last summer, at 29, Mr. Richard had quit his job as a corporate operations manager to become a “digital nomad.”

Now he is hunkered down at his parents’ house in Michigan, having returned to the United States as concerns over the coronavirus outbreak grew and travel bans were put in place around the world. He is in self-isolation as a precaution. And in recent weeks, he said, he has seen his net worth drop by more than $100,000.

“It’s definitely not a great feeling, to say the least,” Mr. Richard said.

He is an adherent of the FIRE movement, the personal finance strategy popular among millennials. It stands for “financial independence, retire early.”

I remember Garth pointing out, on several occasions, that retiring at 40 was a bad idea for several reasons.

Q: Where are those couple of guys who kept arguing with him on this?

A: In the basement of a house they don’t own, on a couch they didn’t buy.

———

Strange how you’re only focusing on the one guy in the article. The others quoted in the article appear to be just fine. Even for that one guy, he said he lost $100,000, we don’t have the full picture. $100,000 lost based on how much total? $3 million or $300,000? Who knows.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/style/fire-movement-stock-market-coronavirus.html

I’ve lost six figures on my net worth and I’m in my mid-forties. Does it hurt? Sure, like anyone else. Does it break me financially? Nope. I still have 7 figures pretty much all in ETFs. I’m down -12.17% right now so not earth shattering. My Poverty Portfolio is just fine.

Overall, the article is pretty biased with very few numbers to back up what they’re trying to sell here. For sure, some idiots who do lean FIRE decided to cut corners, others leveraged themselves to hell on real estate and potentially on Airbnb. Those are the idiots but they’re the same type who buy crypto, or gold and silver bullion and think they can make bank in 12-18 months and then crap out. The other ones who thought it through are just fine. They just don’t make a good MSM news article.

———

One little correction. I reread the article and they did mention that the guy only had somewhere between $500,000 and $1 million. I guess he in particular falls into the idiot category as I mentioned above. You definitely need a million + to make it but nothing stopping you from retiring in your 40s, 30s, or even 20s.

#216 Smoking Man on 04.02.20 at 8:53 pm

I’m thinking it’s a good time to go big into the market right now.

If I’m wrong which I don’t think so. It’s the brain cancer.

Love life.

#217 Lee on 04.02.20 at 8:54 pm

Re 186,

How can it be none? People will spend the 180B and that will generate HST, profits, payroll remittances. The government will get at least 10-20% of it back I’m guessing. It’s not all gone.

The federal government will still run a deficit – a new one – the following year. This one is just added to the overall debt, which then has to be financed with more borrowing. The answer to your question is, none. – Garth

#218 red falcon on 04.02.20 at 9:02 pm

Exerpt taken from a rather famous Canadian Investor:

“Debt worldwide is so high that a sharp expansion of money supply, which in time always causes inflation, is inevitable.”

Inevitable… where have I heard that from? Debtors dread it, Debtors run from it, Debt arrives all the same.

#219 Howard on 04.02.20 at 9:09 pm

The ICE condos, notorious former AirBnB den of debauchery where short-term rentals are verboten as of a couple weeks ago, now has 106 units seeking tenants, up from 96 just a couple days ago.

https://condos.ca/toronto/ice-condos-ice-condos-ii-12-york-st-14-york-st

#220 Treasure Island CEO - 510.23 Troy Ounces within Bicycle Distance on 04.02.20 at 9:09 pm

Garth says don’t crystallize any loss. Hold tight. Do nothing.

Meanwhile a ton of hedge fund managers including Mark Yusko is telling investors to brace for a nearly once in a lifetime downturn and that it is “not too late to go to cash”

I think the biggest play is going to be by all of the pissed off Canadian Millennials: the biggest ever wave of delinquencies is coming and is going to put all Canadian homes at a discount that makes Black Friday shopping discounts seem like a ripoff – meaning 40-50% price reductions.

Can you say UNDERWATER?

Everyone says, oh it will recover, etc. and prices will hold. No they won’t. Liquidity will make sure of that.

Wonder what hanging on to your house will yield? Look to Alberta from the past 5 years. Cutting ties early is an option if you have a plan B to GTFO…most are too weak to make this move until the actual print happens…and quite frankly it is probably already too late…but these miracle gov. payments might be the silver lining window for liquidating.

Steve Saretsky will be buying his first home, a single detached in Shaughnessy no less for around 400-500k in the coming year.

Pays to have a real vision subscription.

#221 Prairieboy43 on 04.02.20 at 9:11 pm

Just finished listening to CTV news Edmonton. First 25 minutes all Covid-19 discussion. Two minutes regarding local rural murders. One minute on Alberta economy. No mention of half Edmonton business going under…….nothing. Media needs a good whipping. Public flogging of all media management.

#222 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 9:13 pm

@#187 Flopster
“Farting in elevators.
You were ahead of your time in unsocial distancing…”

++++
Finally…..someone appreciates me.

#223 Left GTA on 04.02.20 at 9:15 pm

I posted on yesterdays blog instead of today. What needs to be done: Get moving on the mask making. Mandatory for everyone to wear n95 masks and go back to work! Police the mask wearing. Leave kids home to do online school.

#224 John in Mtl on 04.02.20 at 9:22 pm

#154 Trojan House on 04.02.20 at 6:08 pm

“So now the UN wants to tax us as well.”

NO WAY am I paying for the country/party responsible for this global mess, and neither should any Canadian be willing to do this. We must watch what our PM does and scrutinize every expenditure and deal he attempts to make on behalf of “all Canadians”. Let the country/party responsible pay for it. As a country, Canada is in deep enough s**t already! And… the toilet paper is running out.

#225 Andrew on 04.02.20 at 9:23 pm

Bitcoin Fund begins trading on the TSX Thursday April 9th under ticker QBTC.U
Share prices will reflect the day to day price of bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/3iq_corp/status/1245795669018693632?s=20

Do yourself a favour. Learn and consider.

#226 PastThePeak on 04.02.20 at 9:24 pm

Always come now for my daily dose of health crisis denial from the blog and its comment section. Most people recover you know – not a big deal. “Just the flu, bro…”

It’s funny how some people will latch onto Global Warming as the greatest threat to humankind, with models predicting catastrophe 100 years out (and always missing the short term predictions)…and blather on about “science”…

..but when thousands are dying everyday in the worst pandemic in 100 years (despite incredible isolation measures)…and front line medical personal will boldly state it is the worst they have ever seen…those same people claim it is no big deal and just fear created by the media.

Is it possible that sense and wisdom will ever come back? You know the answer…

#227 Calguy on 04.02.20 at 9:27 pm

This is sad. Borders not closed at all. Look at YVR arrivals. Still flights from China and USA. Plus the Feds using 40 flights to bring home “stranded” Canadians. We are gonna be doing this for a long time. All these people are not being quarantined while we are all making sacrifices. Not to mention all the Canadians on a cruise ship in Florida. Sorry if vacations were cut short but they made those choices life’s a bitch. When can we have a non confidence vote? Please relay these concerns. If borders were closed properly two weeks ago we might have a light at the end of the tunnel.

Very worried about housing…when people lose jobs tough choices will be made. Will Alberta return to 1980s I’m not sure. Will vancouver return pre expo 86. Probably not. But having jobs slashed will eventually make its way to housing.

#228 Wrk.dover on 04.02.20 at 9:29 pm

GST is the only federal tax that I have paid since it’s inception. If it weren’t for income splitting, I would even get it all back. This country is too cheap to live in to balance the collective book.

Unless you make more than you really need to have.

Then not so good huh!

#229 WUL on 04.02.20 at 9:31 pm

Garth,

Thank you for being a stalwart.

I screwed up my courage (liquid aided) and visited the CREB stats for Daily/Weekly single detached in Cowtown.

Sales down 44% over the last week compared to last year. Probably the poor weather.

In Calgary, downward sales prices are not always “sticky”. They can be plucky. Hope over experience.

Alberta pluck.

Cheers and best wishes to all,

WUL
M64Brokeass,AB

#230 Lost...but not leased on 04.02.20 at 9:35 pm

FYI:

Local Gov’ts … next domino to fall…re: tax and spend.

Majority have , on average and at best ONE YEAR reserve funds for rainy day.

https://www.richmond-news.com/b-c-city-halls-are-shrinking-but-some-have-bigger-reserves-to-fall-on-1.24111344

#231 Figure it Out on 04.02.20 at 9:36 pm

“It will be hard to kill American capitalism.”

It’s happening right before your very eyes. This week, shareholders of failing companies get a HUGE bailout, when what should happen is the shareholders get wiped, the bondholders become the new shareholders, and the DIP financiers become the new bondholders. Most of the big US airlines did it a few years ago, never cancelled a flight. GM and Chrysler did it in the GFC, kept making cars.

Not this week, though. Bailouts for rich shareholders (and pension funds, to be sure), reduced hours and layoffs for employees of these companies. and those too small to shoulder their way to the trough.

#232 JP on 04.02.20 at 9:38 pm

An acquaintance once commented, “You know, if there is a zombie apocalypse, I am coming to your house – you look like you’re squared away.”

I replied, “I would love to have you for dinner, with Fava Beans and a nice Chian..”.

Never got to finish the sentence as they walked away.

#233 Well said on 04.02.20 at 9:38 pm

Of course we will recover. Normal may be different, but this is not the unraveling of society. Imagine how people felt after four years of horrible, costly war, then a pandemic that took 50 million lives. The world recovered. A new normal. Give your head a shake. We have lost perspective, in our soft lives. – Garth

Thanks well said.
I am still worried, yep soft as the pills bury dough boy!

#234 nobodythoughtofthisone on 04.02.20 at 9:41 pm

everyone keeps saying there are no flights. Has anyone looked at flight radar? Might be less.. but that is a lot of planes in the air if you ask me.
https://www.flightradar24.com/50.24,-56.63/3

The 75% subsidy is great and all, but its based on year over year revenue. If you have had any significant growth in your business over the past year you are out of luck. I personally have triple the over head of last April and would have to be loosing a ton of money to make 30% less then April 19. Most of these subsidies have some serious catches.. no such thing as a free lunch.

#235 State 51 on 04.02.20 at 9:41 pm

The Americans are expecting up to 30% crap out rate on residential mortgages due to COVID. To put it into perspective, 2008 had a 10% rate and that caused massive problems. Canada had minor problems in 2008, mainly due to the oilpatch keeping the Canadian economy afloat.

I don’t think Canada will be so lucky this time. T2 burnt the lifeboat.

#236 BobC on 04.02.20 at 9:50 pm

#192 oh bouy
Some people just want to believe in conspiracies. I’ve learned to just smile and nod in agreement.

#237 Left GTA on 04.02.20 at 9:56 pm

@17 Palpha

If everyone is wearing their N95 masks then there are no droplets.

#238 Sold Out on 04.02.20 at 9:58 pm

Explains much about the US response to the pandemic…

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/opinion/jared-kushner-coronavirus.html?algo=top_conversion&fellback=false&imp_id=929795210&imp_id=578667915&action=click&module=trending&pgtype=Article&region=Footer

#239 BS on 04.02.20 at 9:59 pm

67 oh bouy on 04.02.20 at 3:38 pm
@#38 S on 04.02.20 at 2:17 pm
Having said all that do you still feel that those who advocated holding gold as part of their investment, especially physical metal, were misguided?

Yes. – Garth
______________________

like wearing a mask, false sense of security.
but hey, whatever makes you feel better.

I am not sure about your definition of ‘false’ but masks do work as South Korea and Singapore demonstrated and gold bullion is up 33% year over year. I am happy to have both bullion and a mask.

On masks:
Top doctor in South Korea

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

Sprott Physical Gold Trust TSE: PHYS.TO up 33%

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PHYS.TO/

#240 not 1st on 04.02.20 at 10:01 pm

So the MSM and other hysterics drove some guy so mental that he decided to try to launch train off the pier and sink the USNS Mercy navy hospital ship.

https://www.businessinsider.com/usns-mercy-train-engineer-coronavirus-conspiracy-crash-2020-4

#241 Reed Marx on 04.02.20 at 10:04 pm

At least our central bank technically is public (as of 1938) therefore we can print our asses off a la “Modern Monetary Theory or MMT”. So far, it looks to me like a global MMT bailout of everything. This is really incredible.
Remember, it was the Fed last September that began propping up this stinking/sinking ship with 350 billion per month paper injections via the REPO market? That’s a full 5 months before the stock implosion began. Remember seeing that October spike in the U.S stock market that Donald Dump was taking credit for?
Since the mid 1980’s have taken on more and more debt in exchange for stagnant wages, diminishing freedoms and a stressful cheque-to cheque existence. This is not a healthy or sustainable way to have a thriving democracy or market economy. We need to rebuild a better system once this is over. Crap! I haven’t even mentioned the environment yet…

#242 Figure it Out on 04.02.20 at 10:11 pm

“It will be hard to kill American capitalism.”

Whiting Petroleum Corp.’s board approved $14.6 million in cash bonuses for top executives days before the shale oil producer filed for bankruptcy. Chief Executive Officer Brad Holly will collect $6.4 million of the total, which will be “paid immediately,” the company said in a filing Wednesday. — Bloomberg

#243 Blog Bunny on 04.02.20 at 10:37 pm

#210 Stone

Thank you for the article. I was debating whether I should FIRE at the beginning of the year, but I decided that being on an eternal vacation is too boring. I went for a prolonged break for 3 weeks to South America instead, and now I am back working on the front lines in this pandemic. The days locked at home (a poor man’s version of FIRE) are so boring that I do not regret my choice. It will be interesting how the FIRE community weathers the storm, especially Garth’s protégés at MILLENIAL REVOLUTION.

#244 Truthseeker 2 on 04.02.20 at 10:38 pm

Highly respected Martin Armstrong declares his sources say this virus is a pandemic story is a left wing G7 coup versus Trump:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/un-want-global-power-to-tax-10-for-the-coronavirus/

Makes some sense when one looks at the election prospects of the split USA Democrats as the next election approaches and the state of EU.

#245 Stratovarious on 04.02.20 at 10:38 pm

One of your best posts yet.

Although we may differ on “staying invested”, and how close we are to the bottom, the fact is that citizens of any country tend to practice the same “debt and financial promiscuity” as do governments. If Ottawa or Washington will not act responsible, why should Bob and Jane Citizen do any different? After all, the lesson from 2008-9 Great Recession was that Big Brother will bail your sorry ass out (or you can send the keys to your over leveraged home back to Wells Fargo with no penalty). This time around, both Ottawa and Washington will not be able to save everyone. The consequences will be HUUUGE.

#246 Doghouse Dweller on 04.02.20 at 10:41 pm

#208 YouKnowWho
And how the hell did 600 homes get hit?
—————————————–
Staff and lots of low pay no benefit temp foreign works in nursing homes. But you would never guess with the premium prices they charge.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-infected-health-care-workers-the-source-of-coronavirus-outbreaks-at/

#247 Caledondave on 04.02.20 at 10:47 pm

Garth….I am just wondering how Bandit is taking all of this? Dogs have an incredible sense of smell as well as being smart. Is Bandit okay or is he aware of something different affecting the people he loves?

#248 Barb on 04.02.20 at 10:51 pm

What does the International Monetary Fund have to say about all these deficits?

Are they wringing their hands in glee (that they’ll soon be in charge of the world), or moving into the concrete basement where there are no telephones?

#249 Jager on 04.02.20 at 10:54 pm

#216 Smoking Man on 04.02.20 at 8:53 pm

My bearish contrarian view point. Only that and nothing more. Others will have a different opinion and you may in fact be right…

Perhaps wait to see some stability in the VIX before any large scale (long term) buy-ins. It is on a downward trend but needs to do some leveling off.

As for todays price increase in Oil any agreements have thus far been unverifiable and US Bond yields (10yr) still signalling problems. The Wuflu news will become more frightening as the mortality rate increases. Upcoming debt defaults in the news will include words such as “worst ever” etc.

I think we’re still at that stage where losing a few thousand troops is regarded as great news as the prediction of the entire army being overrun was (at least for now) avoided.

What’s another week or so if your going large and long?

Note1: Many are now relying on technicals (for at least some insight) as these waters are unprecedented.

Note2: It also appears that we’ll see much more volatility (swings up and down).

#250 flop... on 04.02.20 at 10:56 pm

Three luxury condo projects in downtown Toronto go into receivership

https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/03/31/three-luxury-condo-projects-in-downtown-toronto-go-into-receivership.html

M54BC

#251 Lillooet, BC on 04.02.20 at 10:58 pm

HI Shawn Allen:

your favorite CWB has dropped quite a bit. At what level are you going to buy?

#252 Shawn Allen on 04.02.20 at 11:00 pm

Speak Softly?

#157 HH on 04.02.20 at 6:16 pm responded:
@ conan

“Normal breath – 2 foot spread
talking- 5-10 foot spread
singing- 10 -20 foot spread
yelling- 20-25 foot spread…”

Yep… Much talk here about what customs and aspects of daily life will need to change now. This is my favourite.

We shall all practice the ancient, fine, civilised, much neglected and all-but-forgotten art of *** shutting one’s gob ***.

Or at least talking quietly for a change. Especially in public.

*********************************
Talking more Quietly is something that would obviously help stop the spread of Covid-19.

I watched a video someone posted on this blog with the Korean top doctor and he explained the obvious fact that droplets are emitted even when talking and therefore we should wear masks.

Since we the western world mostly refuse to wear masks, the least we can do is #SpeakSoftly

Actually I have often in the past cringed at loud talkers and their spittle when dining in groups. I often slid my plate away from them and tried to cover it up a bit. Now we all have even more reason to talk more softly when within 6 feet of others and to protect our plates if we ever get back to eating in groups.

#253 1255 on 04.02.20 at 11:01 pm

Garth – I see you still think there is an overreaction to the virus.

Let me explain why lockdowns are in place…
If there were no lockdowns then everyone in Canada would catch the virus or close to it. Yes the majority of Canadians would catch it. It spreads like a common cold and what’s worse is that it spreads when people are asymptomatic.

The hospitals in Canada (or anywhere else in the world for that matter) are not equipped to handle the thousands of sick people that would require hospital care. This would overwhelm the health system and many more than 1-2% of the entire population of Canada would die because they wouldn’t have access to care.

Do you understand that? I don’t think you get it.

#254 Capt. Serious on 04.02.20 at 11:03 pm

I mean, people should have some savings, but nobody plans for a once in a hundred year pandemic. Ditto corporations and businesses, many of which run on very little free cash flow. Can you imagine the board meetings where management tries to pitch an emergency savings fund? Good luck. No, this is just our reality we have to live through.

#255 AACI Homedog on 04.02.20 at 11:08 pm

Smoking Man…please say it ain’t so…

#256 TRON on 04.02.20 at 11:12 pm

We are seeing the death of capitalism. Bailing out millions of people who took no responsibility for their finances is the final nail in the coffin.

The people who are dying from the virus have weak immune systems. The old folks and the lazy fat people with diabetes in the US are the hardest hit by this bug.

Isolate the old folks and chronically ill, let fat slurpy drinking lazy ones walk among us and take their chances and the vast majority return to work. It’s a simple responsible thing to do. We’ll thin the herd and say goodbye to our grandparents a little earlier then planned.

Or, take the government handouts and be enslaved by the rich forever.

#257 mark on 04.02.20 at 11:19 pm

S&P 1600 hello!

#258 Keyboard Smasher on 04.02.20 at 11:20 pm

Regarding oil and the solvency of the Canadian federal government:

If Trump wants the Russians to agree to production cuts, he’s going to have to cede and roll back sanctions that are a result of the hysterical anti-Russian rhetoric of the Deep State institutions. Russia built up vast gold and hard currency reserves for nearly a decade, and their budget is funded with a $25 per barrel WTI price for up to 10 years. Thanks to the frivolous sanctions, their industry and economy is largely immune to the shocks from the Bat flu.

Trump also has the ability to implement the NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act). This bill would make it illegal for Saudi and the OPEC nations to artificially cap oil (and gas) production or to set prices, and deprive Saudi Arabia of their immunity against litigation, meaning, the US can hit them with anti-trust legislation and seize the $1 Trillion in assets they hold in the USA.

#259 Manitoba Whale on 04.02.20 at 11:23 pm

#72 Mf on 04.02.20 at 3:53 pm
This makes me think I should retire a year or two earlier. That way I don’t have to pay as much tax to support the financial illiterates.
————————————
I am down to 15 hours a week, partly to have something to do partly because of tax reasons. Well worth it.

#260 ulsterman on 04.02.20 at 11:29 pm

I’ve said this in previous posts but given that the virus does not hospitalized HEALTHY people under about 60’ish, wouldn’t it have made sense to

1) Keep the working population working and paying taxes
2) Keep retired (more at home) people… at home… self isolating and used government money to pay for home grocery delivery, home nursing care, and home mental health support?

Sure some younger people would have still got flu-like symptoms and missed some work, but the stats suggest the majority of people under 60 would barely have known they were sick.

Seems odd to bring an economy to its knees for a virus that kills only a microscopic percentage of the population. Remember 99.985% of canadians are NOT infected with CoVid.

#261 Axehead on 04.02.20 at 11:36 pm

Just wondering … will school happen during the summer months and will teachers work during the summer? Makes sense that this would happen.

#262 WUL on 04.02.20 at 11:37 pm

#103 Marco on 04.02.20 at 4:44 pm

“Oh, I rather read that Canadian stories how we are all in this together, then this about how other people are irresponsible but I am so prudent and mama taught me to save… give me are break.”

******

I concur, wholeheartedly.

#263 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.02.20 at 11:48 pm

#95 Sail away on 04.02.20 at 4:28 pm
#84 Yukon Elvis on 04.02.20 at 4:09 pm

Would not surprise me to see an increase in sales taxes too over and above what Garth mentioned.

UK VAT is 20%, France 20%, Italy22%, Germany19%, Ireland23%, Netherlands 21%, Norway25%, Russia20%, Sweden 25%, Austria 20%.

——————

US federal sales tax: 0

Alaska, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon sales tax: 0

Other states range up to the highest of 7.25% for California.

Who is the world powerhouse again? Strange how they don’t tax their residents to death. Coincidence?
————
World powerhouse?
Putin just send them a 747 full of medical equipment.
1/4 of the global infected are Americuns and climbing fast.
And now the Prez is bringing out his secret weapon
Jared Kushner.

#264 Why Bother on 04.03.20 at 12:06 am

@ #181 Crowdedelevatorfartz

Self respect?
Or we could all just accepted our egregiously over taxed fate and quick working, paint our teeth grey and beg for money in front of the liquor store.
What the hell.

——————————-

Agree. This seems to be the new culture and the decision makers at the top are breeding poor behavior and habits by incentivizing debt on debt on debt.

#265 The Mandrake Mechanism on 04.03.20 at 12:13 am

The Mandrake Mechanism Hierarchy of Needs:
1) Electricity in my condo
2) Running water in my condo
3) Food on the shelves at Safeway
4) My debit card works when I need it

One month ago, HGTV was at the Sheraton Vancouver with a seminar on real estate – buy it and rent it out and buy lots of ‘em. As I sat there with 2,000 others I never questioned my selling of 5 rental units after 20 years of ownership – I cashed out (and paid the taxes) in 2017 and was happy to do so. Now here comes the Black Swan “Don’t pay rent May 1st” – who woulda thunk.

Actually the banks did. I’m sure they forecasted doom and gloom back in December, even when they were already laying off thousands. Ahead of the curve never mind flatten the curve. The government and mortgage holders/lenders are carrying the bailout but who will bail out the “bailer outers”? Us of course. Ironic that we’ve already been taken to the cleaners so that well is dry and finished but not the long term obligations of the worker bees and what small businesses we still have standing. Think Uncle Tom and his $1.3 trillion USD cheque to Wall Street back in 2009. Long term debt financing – 100 year amortization….yaaaayyyy.

Remember the headline “The rust belt’s new normal – China is reviving the American heartland one low wage at a time”? (Fuyao Glass Plant Moraine Ohio…or Ford/GM Oshawa – take your pick). We need a new documentary “Canadian Factory”.
Hindsight is 20/20 and I find it almost surreal looking at the historical 6 month pricing of Cdn bank stocks. The question is what is the future? Where do you (financially) run to? Buy low and sell high whatever. Diversified portfolio ear ache my eye. I paint your fence you serve me a meal….as long as my lower back holds out.

#266 morry on 04.03.20 at 12:13 am

“In 2018, the global government debt reached the equivalent of $66 trillion, or about 80% of global GDP.”

Everyone is in the same debt boat.

#267 Longterm on 04.03.20 at 12:16 am

#68 Faron on 04.02.20 at 3:43 pm

Very well put.

#268 wallflower on 04.03.20 at 12:19 am

This is definitely the kind of comment that ought to be
DELETED
Such a shame that posters like this make work for moderator. Posts like these are beyond disgusting.
Just imagine the stuff Garth sees that we never see if this appalls me.

:
#142 Word for “wait there” on 04.02.20 at 5:47 pm

#269 Lorne on 04.03.20 at 12:32 am

#105 Terry on 04.02.20 at 4:53 pm
I’ll say it again. Closing down our economies and locking people down was a HUGE mistake. What we need to do going forward is seriously look at shutting down all the Main Stream Media outlets, CBC, CTV, CNN, CNBC, MSNBC etc…They are the real villains in this economic catastrophe.
……
Really? A little more critical thinking might come in handy!

#270 Sydneysider on 04.03.20 at 12:34 am

#197 Sail Away on 04.02.20 at 7:53 pm

My observation is that historically the CAD seldom goes below 0.70 USD for long, so I would expect it to drift back to 0.75 in a few weeks and stay there for a while.

#271 TomMac on 04.03.20 at 12:35 am

Great column. I have read articles where those who cannot make a rent or mortgage payment after being out of work two weeks are becoming indignant about having to accept terms they don’t like. What on earth is wrong with this picture?

#272 Rowdie on 04.03.20 at 12:35 am

After all said and done, why would the saver’s foot the bill for all the knuckle heads who didn’t. I know the debt will be beyond belief, and I wonder will our government leader’s have to pay as well! Or, are they exempt. We are only pawns on the chess board, they just play us as they feel the need to. Pretty corrupt! Just have to wait see what develops in the end. Good bye millions of dollars saved from individuals.. hello third world!

#273 Tom from Mississauga on 04.03.20 at 12:48 am

So 3 employees on the day shift were sent home on symptoms today (I’m on afternoons). Our 400,000 s/f facility, packed with capital equipment, distribute various frozen food for every grocer in Canada and several Ontario restaurants. There’s no trained replacements. If I go back in tomorrow I’ll be singing O’Canada. Hope to god other distributors have been more careful than us.

#274 Jimmy Da Bouche on 04.03.20 at 1:06 am

“Nobody thought two months ago the economy would be turned off.”

Well, I thought that. I knew back in January that all this was going to happen. All the evidence was there, but no one wanted to believe it. No one cared.

If you watched this interview by Michael Osterholm on Fox Business from January 31st, you would have known what would happen.

https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6128645093001/?fbclid=IwAR0otKBvWFSnQu2rp99Ihdx_F_5b3oMW4ZZ4GXmBpTCcmADEMIQQevNPeSk#sp=show-clips

#275 CORONSPIRACY on 04.03.20 at 1:08 am

“Anyone who thinks for one second that I am exaggerating by calling this a global coup does not know me very well. I do not buy into conspiracy theories. I rely upon qualified sources – not rumor or conjecture. I have WARNED that we are facing a leftist coup of major proportions. I have warned that this virus was not a real threat from the beginning. It was not a biological weapon spliced with aids or a leak. This has been an intentional misrepresentation. My sources suggest it existed in the previous flu season in China.

The United Nations, and their World Health Organization, is behind this coup as well. The death toll is far less than the annual flu (about 10%) but the press is so happy to support this Marxist agenda. The journalists who are following orders from their managing editors are sealing their own future and that of their families and children. They used this virus for there is no vaccine but there are plenty of independent sources saying the medicine to treat malaria have been working with no deaths in France and elsewhere.

The United Nations has now produced a 26-page report outlining an action plan to address the various socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 and the DESTRUCTION of the world economy that has been intentionally carried out by the left. The United Nations has been using Climate Change to try to create a one-world government order, but they have run into way too much resistance. Climate Change is now dead. They have moved on to something that allows them to threaten that people will die IMMEDIATELY unless they surrender all their freedoms. The agenda of the Climate Change was to seize industry and effectively nationalize them. They will do that now by virtually bankrupting them and the state will just take them over. This is the scheme that was even talked about in Germany to nationalize companies since they cannot bail them out.

This is the oldest trick in the book. The United Nations is seeking the power to IMPOSE a 10% global tax on everyone for what they are describing as a “global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations.” This is because they conspired to create one out of a hyped up virus. You would think this is at the level of the Black Death.

Everything we have ever believed were our human rights are no longer valid. The left was trying to shut down all gun sales. Trump called gun shops essential for protection in light of rising civil unrest. This is the left moving AGGRESSIVELY to force their failed agenda to the ultimate power grab. The pension system is collapsing. All the promises they have made since World War II are crumbling to dust. This is why they have been so intent upon getting rid of Trump and were fighting against BREXIT. They want no opposition.”

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/un-want-global-power-to-tax-10-for-the-coronavirus/

Crazy? Or……

#276 Tudval on 04.03.20 at 1:13 am

In Ontario 98% of *clinical* cases recover from the Wuhan flu. Many won’t even know they had it. It gets worse as it hits retirement homes. Overwhelmed health care workers? In Italy and Spain, for sure. In Ontario, not so much. So far. In Alberta they expect 250 patients in ICU at the peak. In Ontario, it may be 2-4 times that. Not overwhelming. It’s not worst case scenario (which will be presented tomorrow), we never prepared for worst case scenario, we never prepared even for a run-of-the-mill epidemic, otherwise we wouldn’t fear running out of PPE one months into the flu season.

#277 CORONSPIRACY on 04.03.20 at 1:15 am

People realize the WHO director is a communist, right?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/06/world-health-organization-corrupt-wasteful/

#278 Carole King Tiger Baskin on 04.03.20 at 1:27 am

Re: 175 – I agree – it seems pretty clear there isn’t a point to save money in a city like Vancouver or Toronto – when really it appears all you need to do is put your money into a house … Even a global pandemic with the economy shut down doesn’t seem to drop the prices in these cities…. “According to RBC, property prices are expected to fall briefly in the second half of this year by about 3 per cent…” oh no….not 3% – Have you seen the markets lately??….

I suppose the 1.2M Canadians who have lost their jobs & applying for EI probably aren’t lined up to buy a $3M starter home in Kitsilano ….but then again – talk to (almost) any realtor…. this home has a basement suite, zoned for a lane-way home…..$3M is a steal…hurry now, there’s already 3 offers….. just think of the airbnb rental inco…..oh wait….

I’m excited to see what “in the cross-hairs” will look like for those of us who work hard, save, and are fiscally responsible…

Here’s an idea – instead of an RRSP Home Buyers Plan to help those buy that ‘dream’ home, Why not have a RRSP Covid Plan – pull out what you need from your own RRSP to let you pay for your rent…..pay it back over 15 years….

OR ….fine….let’s just keep adding more to the debt… why not?…. – the Boomers did it to us -we may as well do it to the next generation….

Oh & if you want to find them – they are probably partying on the beach while the rest of us are socially distancing at home….trying to flatten the curve to help out the real heroes on the front line… Its 7PM somewhere….Clap Clap! Cheers! Thank you.

#279 Faron on 04.03.20 at 1:43 am

#191 Deplorable Dude on 04.02.20 at 7:43 pm

” to flatten the curve based on the projections of a single model”

Educate yourself:

https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus/

#280 Jane24 on 04.03.20 at 1:45 am

This is the 4th killer virus to come out of China in my lifetime and sadly it won’t be the last. Between international travel and globalisation such events will become more common in the future. This is not a one-off. We need to resolve how future such events will be prepared for and managed as we cannot wipe out the world economy every winter. Individuals need to think out now how to physically and economically survive the next one as it will sadly arrive.

Avoid living in big condo blocks in big cities as these will always be an unhealthy environment. Try to get out of big cities. Keep cash savings so in an emergency the banks can’t play you. Play down debt for the same reason. Be a crazy person and keep anti viral products in the basement in a just-in-case box. I am sure that the intelligent folk on this blog can add more guidance for the 2021 pandemic to come. What a world!

#281 Calgary on 04.03.20 at 1:49 am

In Canada, anything with a door is closed now.

#282 Re 52 james on 04.03.20 at 2:21 am

No wonder you hate SM.
ENvy is ugly man

#283 Faron on 04.03.20 at 2:38 am

#37 Deplorable Dude on 04.02.20 at 2:14 pm

Actual……31,000. (https://covidtracking.com/data)

Total garbage.

———————————————————–

I dug into covidtracking.com’s data. You are right, it is garbage. The purpose of their site is to report testing numbers and that’s their focus. For other numbers, their total is the total reported by states and the vast majority of states don’t report Hospitalization, ICU or Ventilator numbers. None of the top 5 hardest hit states provide these numbers. For example, covidtracking gives a number of people on ventilators in NY a zero for yesterday even though more than 300 people died. So, their count is way low. Go to their site and take a gander at their spreadsheet.

#284 Moose on 04.03.20 at 3:16 am

@post 134 re: 7 tenants. No one feels sorry for you.

#285 belly rubs on 04.03.20 at 4:02 am

#193 Wuhan we got y’all in check on 04.02.20 at 7:49 pm

To paraphrase Gordon Gekko – people follow the herd like sheep, and sheep get slaughtered

Sheep get sheared. Then they are let out to the meadow to grow more wool and forget the whole experience, until they are rounded up and sheared again. A human can get sheared 5 times a day, they are that gullible.

#286 Phylis on 04.03.20 at 5:01 am

Early to bed Garth? You feeling ok?

#287 Toronto_CA on 04.03.20 at 5:35 am

At what point is someone going to quantify the deaths of despair caused by our choice to shut down the economy for 3-6 months versus the deaths from covid?

Keeping in mind, deaths from the virus are likely to be more or less equally applied to older people (even rich old white men), while deaths of despair are only going to impact the poor/working class. And it could be in the hundreds of thousands if not millions the longer the “necessary” shutdowns happen.

For all the woke people thinking the shut downs are going to hit rich white men’s portfolios, note that the portfolios will recover but the amount of suicides and indirect suicides through substance abuse will not come back. And those will be young people of all races and genders who can’t pay the bills.

There’s a lot of people who need to really consider the implications for laying off 30% of the working class. The professional white collar class are still working.

My own opinion is that after May, turn the lights back on and get people working again. If it turns out the scientists at Oxford are right and this virus is already everywhere and most of us have antibodies, at least we’ve only done a month and a bit of damage, versus the 3-6 months of damage that doctors are calling for now.

#288 Harley Tempke on 04.03.20 at 5:36 am

,”Failure at the Border”. Decide for yourself.

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/national/the-road-to-canadas-covid-19-outbreak-timeline-of-federal-government-failure-at-border-to-slow-the-virus/

There’s no need to disparage the PM when he’s doing such a good job himself.

#289 Wrk.dover on 04.03.20 at 6:08 am

Ontario man wants refund for ticket when Justin Bieber Concert cancelled.

Says a lot about men in Ontario……

#290 not so liquid in calgary on 04.03.20 at 6:52 am

@ No hand outs! on 04.02.20 at 1:08 pm
“I have paid hundreds of thousands in taxes over the years and have lost a few lambos in the markets and no one is offering me anything!”

=====================================

… what about the tax deduction that came with the “lost lambos”??

#291 Fred Baxter on 04.03.20 at 7:01 am

#244
Truthseeker 2 on 04.02.20 at 10:38 pm
Highly respected Martin Armstrong declares his sources say this virus is a pandemic story is a left wing G7 coup versus Trump:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/un-want-global-power-to-tax-10-for-the-coronavirus/

Makes some sense when one looks at the election prospects of the split USA Democrats as the next election approaches and the state of EU.

———
Martin Arthur Armstrong is an American self-taught economic forecaster who uses his own computer model based on pi. He spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million and hiding $15 million in assets from regulators

#292 Sail Away on 04.03.20 at 7:46 am

Re: Covid

Watch Sweden. Watch Brazil. Watch Africa. Watch Russia.

No draconian restrictions, nothing out of the ordinary despite doomsayers.

Ponder.

#293 Re-Cowtown on 04.03.20 at 8:07 am

#289 Wrk.dover on 04.03.20 at 6:08 am
Ontario man wants refund for ticket when Justin Bieber Concert cancelled.

Says a lot about men in Ontario……

______

A classic! Made my day!

#294 MF on 04.03.20 at 8:08 am

#260 ulsterman on 04.02.20 at 11:29

Actually there is a sizeable percentage of young people who have a serious case of this, and are put in the hospital icu.

There’s reports all over social media and the news from young people reporting this.

85% of cases are mild or so, but 20% are not, and those are not just older people even though they are most at risk.

MF

#295 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 8:14 am

@#289 Wrk.dover
“Says a lot about men in Ontario……”

****

Dont get excited.
Its just Carly….from Cabbagetown.

#296 MF on 04.03.20 at 8:21 am

80-85% mild. 15-20% not mild.

Math issue.

Meh you get the idea.

MF

#297 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 8:22 am

@#280 JaneTwoFour
“I am sure that the intelligent folk on this blog can add more guidance….”

+++++

All the other intelligentsia are trying to figure out how someone who’s been alive since the Black Death in 1379 only owns a pallazzo in Calabria … and ….. I’m busy at the moment……tying my shoelaces….I’ll be done in a few hours

#298 oh bouy on 04.03.20 at 8:25 am

@#275 CORONSPIRACY on 04.03.20 at 1:08 am
“Anyone who thinks for one second that I am exaggerating by calling this a global coup does not know me very well. I do not buy into conspiracy theories. I rely upon qualified sources – not rumor or conjecture. I have WARNED that we are facing a leftist coup of major proportions. I have warned that this virus was not a real threat from the beginning. It was not a biological weapon spliced with aids or a leak. This has been an intentional misrepresentation. My sources suggest it existed in the previous flu season in China.
_______________________

lol, you better get over to costco before they run out of tinfoil

#299 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 8:36 am

Virus?
What virus?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-navy/u-s-navy-relieves-aircraft-carrier-commander-who-wrote-letter-urging-coronavirus-action-idUSKBN21K3B9

#300 Jay on 04.03.20 at 8:41 am

Greta is getting exactly what she wanted. now we know what happens when society is turned off. Now we can all sit at home, grow community gardens, go back to being hunter-gatherers and never travel anywhere, all while saving the planet.

Oh ya, and there are way too many people in the world to allow that lifestyle, so half of us need to go. If only there were a virus or something that would help in that regard.

#301 Jager on 04.03.20 at 8:48 am

An important point to note. At least a year prior to this meltdown we already had overcapacity in many supply chains due to shrinking demand. Many manufacturers in China already had warehouses filled with goods and were seeking additional funding to weather the storm.
i.e. Supply destruction was already beginning to form. (Follow the chain back to commodities).

This coupled with demand destruction (the largest in history on the way?) seems to cement a long recovery. No room in interest rates and an enormous pre-existing debt bubble in everything across the board.

The solution?

Blow the bubble into a star sized colossus until it blocks the view of absolutely everything.

And then…

We absolutely need another life altering breakthrough in science/technology to alter our economic destiny. Another computer styled revolution (or bigger) to drive growth. e.g. Nanotechnology coupled with Quantum mechanics and AI etc.

#302 NoName on 04.03.20 at 8:50 am

I was looking at sliver spot and prices on eebey and noticed that eebey 1oz sliver is 2x more than spot price.

Iam thinking if I by i wouldn’t know, did dude sent me a lead or sliver coin or bullions…

#303 jack on 04.03.20 at 9:14 am

Once this pandemic is over here’s how to prevent the next one:

*Quarantine all persons entering another country for 14 days – must be a controlled facility (not self isolation).*

Some countries, like Australia, do this for pets, but not people?

Yes, it will shut down the global travel industry, but who cares – travel within your own country. It will help the environment too.

I’ve been saying this should have been done for years – and everyone thought i was crazy.

#304 Penny Henny on 04.03.20 at 9:21 am

I’m seeing some significant price drops in Etobicoke on SFH’s. From red hot markets to stone cold.
This is worse than what happened in Apr 2017.
I have some reference since I was a seller in May of 2017

#305 Dharma Bum on 04.03.20 at 9:21 am

#91 Billy Bob

Even the WHO is starting to waffle.
——————————————————————–

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekQtShe8954

#306 Figure it Out on 04.03.20 at 9:22 am

“Ontario man wants refund for ticket when Justin Bieber Concert cancelled. Says a lot about men in Ontario……”

He bought it for your mom.

#307 Dharma Bum on 04.03.20 at 9:28 am

#138 Panic Driven Fear

The econ Related deaths of this will FAR OUTWEIGH THE DEATHS FROM THE VIRUS.
——————————————————————–

You are correct.

Look at it this way:

It’s Mother Nature’s way of culling the financially illiterate and debt pig herds.

#308 JB on 04.03.20 at 9:31 am

#109 Smoking Man on 04.02.20 at 5:00 pm

#105 Terry on 04.02.20 at 4:53 pm
I’ll say it again. Closing down our economies and locking people down was a HUGE mistake. What we need to do going forward is seriously look at shutting down all the Main Stream Media outlets, CBC, CTV, CNN, CNBC, MSNBC etc…They are the real villains in this economic catastrophe.
,………..

Nice, you get it.
Diabetes and old people die from this.
…………………………………………………………………..
#216 Smoking Man on 04.02.20 at 8:53 pm
I’m thinking it’s a good time to go big into the market right now.

If I’m wrong which I don’t think so. It’s the brain cancer.

Love life.
………………………………………………………………
#255 AACI Homedog on 04.02.20 at 11:08 pm

Smoking Man…please say it ain’t so…
……………………………………………………………….
Hey Smoking Man if your treatments for this malady are radiation and or chemo then please take this Covid-19 seriously. Don’t downplay it or spin it my friend. It is not just old people and diabetes. it really depends on your immune system and general health. You are at an extreme elevated risk factor. We have a friend doing the same at Princess Margaret and she is locked down so tight that she is living in the basement suit of their home completely isolated even from family. Trips for chemo and radiation via one family member only with mask, gloves and all. We want to have the meet and greet in a few weeks for some good eats and beers instead of standing over your coffin!
Just this one time try to be serious regarding Covid-19.

#309 JB on 04.03.20 at 9:37 am

#280 Jane24 on 04.03.20 at 1:45 am

This is the 4th killer virus to come out of China in my lifetime and sadly it won’t be the last. Between international travel and globalisation such events will become more common in the future. This is not a one-off. We need to resolve how future such events will be prepared for and managed as we cannot wipe out the world economy every winter. Individuals need to think out now how to physically and economically survive the next one as it will sadly arrive.

Avoid living in big condo blocks in big cities as these will always be an unhealthy environment. Try to get out of big cities. Keep cash savings so in an emergency the banks can’t play you. Play down debt for the same reason. Be a crazy person and keep anti viral products in the basement in a just-in-case box. I am sure that the intelligent folk on this blog can add more guidance for the 2021 pandemic to come. What a world!
…………………………………………………………………
It always comes down to high density communal living. Condos and apartments are the death fields for all of these old retires in the future years. They will be trapped, slowly infected one by one and die. I wouldn’t touch a condo or even enter one right now unless I absolutely had to.

#310 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 9:40 am

@#268 wallflower

停止吃蝙蝠 ?

#311 crazyfox on 04.03.20 at 10:06 am

Felt compelled to add some followup this morning, to my earlier comment. Please indulge me and look at the U.S. chart for a sec:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The U.S. now has 245,000 cases. From March 10th to April 2nd, cases grew from 998 to 245,000 in 23 days. (first comment with 5 day doubling, I used 40 days to get there) This is in part to the reality that the U.S. has more international flights than anywhere else in the world. As a consequence, one can assume that the U.S. became more seeded by infected travelers in the world than any other nation, reducing their average double time significantly compared to other nations.

My earlier comment used an example of exponential growth where no measures are taken to stop viral spread. This may be realistic with the spread of a novel virus early on, but as people get sick and people and governments become aware, measures are taken to change this. Even so, total reported cases in the U.S. doubled in the last 5 days.

40 states have some level or degree of “shut down” now. California’s governor for example, with 40 million told everyone to stay home on March 19th. There is a lag in the numbers, 12 to 14 days following choices like California and others, and overall testing has improved in the U.S. (still behind though) so the exponential growth will begin to slow.

That being said, 30,000 cases were reported yesterday. A conservative guess says the U.S. doubles or hits 500,000 around 8 days and hits a million in the following 12 days or so or a million 3 weeks from now. Canada’s largest trading partner could be looking at around 1.3 or 1.4 million cases by May 1st.

The U.S., simply put, did everything wrong. Leadership there has been nothing short of appalling. Trump has minimized and downplayed risk since day 1. 14 day quarantines should have been placed on all international flights in the days following Wuhan’s quarantine. There should have been a great deal more co-ordination with China, but Trump trade wars to enforce an Iranian oil embargo killed diplomacy.

Trump should have put an export ban on exports of masks and respirators, (like every other nation with manufacturing capacity did) and executed an emergency procurement of temp guns.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/point/2020/04/millions-n95-masks-are-being-exported-us-daniel-greenfield/

280 million N95 masks left U.S. soil in one day last month. Trump should have invoked the war time measures act to boost the manufacturing of further needed supply chains on U.S. soil. He had 2 months. He still should, even this late in the game.

We just found out that there is some evidence of aerosol spread indoors 2 days ago for example, changing the narrative on public need to use masks when South Korea told the world this more than a month ago. What was wrong with this information then? The world’s largest economy should have known this intel no later than early February.

$750 billion for military spending and budget cuts by a 1/3rd at the CDC, mostly on Trump’s watch, there’s a message in that. The brain drain and visible blunders at the CDC from testing to preparedness are nothing short of disgrace. The inability of governments to understand the science of this virus, the blunders with supply side and messaging, it all points to one giant $hit $how and the same incompetent people are still in charge.

We think Canada has it bad? Look at our largest trading partner. We think we’ve got lumps and bruises? Look at what is happening south of the line, its nothing short of EPIC fail.

#312 Genevieve Monterro on 04.03.20 at 10:08 am

Garth, any idea why Justin Trudeau is wearing an ankle monitor?

#313 NoName on 04.03.20 at 10:11 am

#292 Sail Away on 04.03.20 at 7:46 am
Re: Covid

Watch Sweden. Watch Brazil. Watch Africa. Watch Russia.

No draconian restrictions, nothing out of the ordinary despite doomsayers.

Ponder.

ya but what ruskies started doing on jan 21?

#314 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 10:17 am

#294 MF on 04.03.20 at 8:08 am
—-

The data coming out of Europe and china is showing younger people have usually lived in dense urban centers with exposure to air pollution and there is ancillary evidence of smoking and vaping being a contributor to their condition.

Good thing we legalized pot and the stores are wide open during the lock down. That should end well.

Liquor open too because everybody knows that adding booze to losing your job and income and being locked away with your family waiting for a govt cheque is a real hoot.

#315 maxx on 04.03.20 at 10:21 am

@ #27

Agree, however corps just do what they (are allowed to )do.

Blame pushover government for pandering to rich squealers on the basis of “jobs”. Corps are the elite of “human resource” reduction and most are sitting on mountains of cash.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/07/microsoft-apple-and-alphabet-are-sitting-on-more-than-100-billion-in-cash.html

#316 Jeff on 04.03.20 at 10:23 am

This episode’s painful. Scary. Terrifying. A virus 95% of victims recover from has nonetheless created public panic. Media has convinced the bulk of the population they’re at imminent risk of death.

Well in my opinion, 99,5% recover, because there is probably 10x more people who have it but never get tested and recover from it.

Plus the number shown in country like Italy are biaised.

#317 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 10:40 am

#311 crazyfox on 04.03.20 at 10:06 am

You can save yourself a lot of typing and just go with orange man bad. Actually saves time for all of us.

If you are actually comparing Canada to the US you have no idea of the real differences in the two countries. It would take too long to explain.

#318 Chris on 04.03.20 at 10:42 am

Should really stop reading – clearly the vast majority of the people who comment here think they know both financial and epidemiology. I would argue most know next to nothing about either. None of you know what is going to happen. Your best guess is just that – a guess. A tiny few will eventually be proven correct after the fact. All who think they know are idiots.

#319 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 10:42 am

@#312 Genevieve
“Garth, any idea why Justin Trudeau is wearing an ankle monitor?”

++++

He’s banned from Spring Break in Miami …?

#320 RE_Investor on 04.03.20 at 10:52 am

#134 Tenants, jeez… on 04.02.20 at 5:35 pm
At least you are 2 for 7. Leverage is a killer during times like this. I’m leverage free so I can weather any future bumps along this economic bomb!
I am 6 for 6 this month. We shall see what happens in May.

I guess you can go through the process of filing L9’s even though the LTB is shuttered (except for emergencies (http://www.sjto.gov.on.ca/ltb/forms/#landlord-forms). At least this puts them on notice. Perhaps before this is done, meet with each of your tenants (6 feet apart of course) and agree on a partial payment and then draft the agreement on a re-payment plan. You can use this document when the LTB resumes.

What is your process for selecting prospective renters?
I always ask my prospective tenants to provide a new credit score and report.
I always look for a decent income-to-rent ratio. I always make sure that all household members of the family are on the lease if the parents are borderline on the income-to-rent ratio.
I always rent my SFH below market rent. I don’t get greedy.
I always make sure to respond quickly to my tenants request for any service to the house.
There is always mutual respect between us and the tenants.
Try to buy SFH (semis and detached). Avoid condos. You can’t control what happens in the building.
So far I’ve survived the rental business since 1990 with no missed rent cheques.

Hope some of this helps you out now and in the future. You can survive, just don’t panic and sell.

#321 cramar on 04.03.20 at 10:53 am

Bill Gates says that that the U.S. has missed the boat in preventing the virus spread. He says there should be a U.S. wide shutdown for 10 weeks to get a handle on it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bill-gates-heres-how-to-make-up-for-lost-time-on-covid-19/2020/03/31/ab5c3cf2-738c-11ea-85cb-8670579b863d_story.html

#322 Sail Away on 04.03.20 at 10:57 am

This steerage is reminiscent of the Crusades. If one is on the morally correct side, anything is defensible. Never trust mob rule, but now it’s all mob rule with instant social media.

Over 4 billion articles have been written about Covid. The truth about the disease? The numbers (and especially deaths) are not statistically significant.

They weren’t early on, and they aren’t now.

Happy frothing.

#323 GB on 04.03.20 at 10:59 am

I had a very bad feeling about the USA when all the panic was setting in and things were shutting down….and Walt Disney announced that they would be “closing in a week” (15th March I believe).

What? So they could capture all that spring break revenue?

Crazy.

#324 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 11:02 am

@#307 Dharma Bum
“It’s Mother Nature’s way of culling the financially illiterate and debt pig herds.”

++++
Unless, of course, you’re Madonna…..

https://www.iheartradio.ca/news/madonna-deletes-bizarre-bathtub-video-1.11106299

#325 BLTandfries on 04.03.20 at 11:15 am

“Between international travel and globalisation such events will become more common in the future.”

No, because this is the beginning of the end of easy travel and globalisation. Nationalism is rising, and this is the fuel it needed.

#326 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 11:17 am

@#321 cramar
Re Bill Gates “He says there should be a U.S. wide shutdown for 10 weeks to get a handle on it.”

+++++

Imperious utterances from a multi billionaire sitting “self isolated” (with a bevy of staff waiting hand and foot over his every need) in his ivory tower hardly help the great unwashed deal with their day to day struggles…..the US has enough trouble already dealing with Trump’s bi-polar decision making process.

#327 Sail away on 04.03.20 at 11:19 am

When predators hunt herd animals, they invariably start by spooking and stampeding the herd. Big mistakes are made through blind panic and headlong rushing.

If you’re one of those panicking now and blindly following the herd, stop and think.

Regardless of whether this is all being orchestrated, or whether the entire human race is really this frantically reactionary, big mistakes are being made and will continue to be made. See if you can spot them. And, of course, take advantage.

If nothing else and if you have the means, this is the time to act benevolently to community small businesses and nonprofits that are hurting. Your dollars will have 10x the advertising impact they did before. Let media know; they love a good human interest story.

#328 Mattl on 04.03.20 at 11:26 am

#175 Why Bother on 04.02.20 at 7:04 pm
What motivation is there to be responsible and save? It seems the system is rewarding people and corporations for being short sighted. The ones who’ve been sacrificing and saving continue to get the short end of the stick. Let people borrow from their registered savings or issue bailouts in the form of loans (individuals and businesses alike). All this encourages one to leave the country but where do you go that is any better?

—————————————————————-

There is a huge incentive to save IMO. Those that are buried in debt, and need to work into their late 60s, will pay increased taxes. The real way to win going forward is to save/invest as much as possible and draw passive income. Those with big TFSA’s and unregistered accounts will be the winners at the end of the day.

I mean does anyone believe the debt junkies are actually winning? I can’t imagine living like that , or needing a 5K gov’t loan to get back from a trip to Mexico.

#329 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 11:36 am

There will be another casualty at the end of all this. Our inept media and our long list of so called experts who keep coming up with doomsday scenarios to scare everyone with.

Already the modelling for NYC is showing there should be 3 or 4 time as many cases coming out of there and its not happening. That hospital ship is empty as well as other hospitals in the state. The MASH hospital in central park is empty.

You cannot make current policy on modelling projections that are wildly variable or riddled with errors because its projected far into the future like climate change.

And if you are in charge of the FDA or CDC, you better have more ideas than just shutting the doors and waiting for a vaccine. Are there any treatments that have potential, nope. Oh but the president found one in his spare time. Oh that doesn’t work, we need 18 months of mouse maze studies to check it out, then some rogue scientist tries it and it works, now its made available.

And our MSM, well what will they be able to whip up after this scare to scare us even more? A good chunk of them have been laid off likely to never be rehired. The ones at home trying to make blog vids competing with citizen journalists in that space who have more followers than CNN do.

A lot of misplaced credibility in these so called experts and talking heads is going to die in this event. I welcome it.

#330 JonBoy on 04.03.20 at 11:38 am

#260 ulsterman on 04.02.20 at 11:29 pm
I’ve said this in previous posts but given that the virus does not hospitalized HEALTHY people under about 60’ish, wouldn’t it have made sense to

1) Keep the working population working and paying taxes
2) Keep retired (more at home) people… at home… self isolating and used government money to pay for home grocery delivery, home nursing care, and home mental health support?

Sure some younger people would have still got flu-like symptoms and missed some work, but the stats suggest the majority of people under 60 would barely have known they were sick.

Seems odd to bring an economy to its knees for a virus that kills only a microscopic percentage of the population. Remember 99.985% of canadians are NOT infected with CoVid.

—–

BINGO! I was saying this exact thing to my wife yesterday – let the unaffected (or generally “safe”) age group keep working and people with compromised immunity or old age can stay home and be safe.

The average age of those that die from COVID-19 is 79.5 years! Think of that for a second – the average age of those that die from this flu is HIGHER than the life expectancy of someone in the USA today. What does that tell you? It picks on old people, primarily.

Keep the wrinklies at home and let the rest of the population deal with it as they would any other flu (stay home for a few days or a week, then get back to work).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

According to this, people up to 40 years old have a 0.2% chance of dying from this (and that includes places that have less-than-stellar medical treatments, etc). People up to 50 years old have a 0.4% chance of dying. And again, this is about those that have been tested for it – it doesn’t even remotely account for those that had it but weren’t tested or didn’t even know they had it. Chances are, the REAL chance of dying is at least half or one quarter of the rate presented, if they included all those that actually had it but weren’t part of confirmed cases.

We’ve literally wrecked our economy and spent $100B+ (projected) for no good reason. Absolutely ridiculous.

I can’t believe that there isn’t a single journalist in Canada that hasn’t dug into the numbers to bring some sanity to what’s going on. What do they think – the virus is selectively going to old folks’ homes and wiping them out? No! It’s EVERYWHERE but it’s only really having an effect on old people (generally speaking) and immuno-compromised individuals.

Critical thinking appears to have died in this pandemic.

#331 Steven Rowlandson on 04.03.20 at 11:40 am

No chicken little’s allowed on the ballot would be a good start. Followed by banning leftists, globalists and deficit spenders from being in government would be close follow up measures. That would proscribe all the legal political parties and rightly so. In 1840 the BNA act was introduced to give Canada responsible government. It was a failure because the people in the political parties were the wrong stuff. The bible is correct. You can’t get good fruit from a corrupt tree.

#332 Damifino on 04.03.20 at 11:41 am

#326 crowdedelevatorfartz

Imperious utterances from a multi billionaire sitting “self isolated” (with a bevy of staff waiting hand and foot over his every need) in his ivory tower hardly help the great unwashed deal with their day to day struggles…
—————————————-

Ad hominem. There is either a basis for what Bill Gates says or there is not. Whether you disapprove of his wealth or lifestyle is irrelevant.

#333 yvr_lurker on 04.03.20 at 11:45 am

This is the 4th killer virus to come out of China in my lifetime and sadly it won’t be the last. Between international travel and globalisation such events will become more common in the future. This is not a one-off. We need to resolve how future such events will be prepared for and managed as we cannot wipe out the world economy every winter. Individuals need to think out now how to physically and economically survive the next one as it will sadly arrive.
———————————
I don’t know if it is 4 such viruses, my count has 3. However, I agree with this sentiment. We can’t wipe out the economy every time something new emerges out of their live animal markets. It has been documented scientifically that there are many other possible contagions that lurk in species associated with those markets. Cultural practices of wildlife delicacies are long-lasting in China. Hopefully a new world order would involve sourcing goods from other countries and for the west to keep more of a social distance from China. I can’t see them changing their cultural practices in a way that the rest of the world can monitor and be assured of.

#334 PastThePeak on 04.03.20 at 11:52 am

#311 crazyfox on 04.03.20 at 10:06 am

Everything you said there is true.

But it is also true that Canada is equally unprepared. Our chief medical officer did nothing other than parrot the WHO, which has proven itself completely incompetent and is nothing but a CCP propaganda mouthpiece.

You can pretty much say that all of Europe, Canada, US, and AUS/NZ were mostly unprepared quite late in the game (not until early March did much happen). Their focus was elsewhere…and it rhymes with “poke”…

#335 PastThePeak on 04.03.20 at 11:58 am

#292 Sail Away on 04.03.20 at 7:46 am
Re: Covid

Watch Sweden. Watch Brazil. Watch Africa. Watch Russia.

No draconian restrictions, nothing out of the ordinary despite doomsayers.

Ponder.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I am watching closely. Russia closed its border with China back in January (no PC and woke resistance there). Russia has a lockdown in Moscow, and extended their country-wide “holiday” to end of April, and are looking at country wide measures not that different from Canada (which are less stringent than US and Europe).

Sweden hasn’t implemented mandatory measures yet, but lawmakers are already bringing proposals forward, as their stats are going up significantly (from 200/day a few days ago, to 500/day now). Sweden’s per-capita cases and deaths are 2x and 6x Canada’s currently.

Brazil and all of South America are behind NAM in the curve. We shall have to see how it goes.

#336 Leo on 04.03.20 at 12:03 pm

This episode’s painful. Scary. Terrifying. A virus 95% of victims recover from has nonetheless created public panic. Media has convinced the bulk of the population they’re at imminent risk of death.

Garth, this is a callous statement from you. If the alternative better to let it bet and not isolate so that we can spread the virus to each other?

The quoted statement is factual and accurate. Stop being a social distance warrior. – Garth

#337 Barb on 04.03.20 at 12:05 pm

Send Meng home.

#338 Sail away on 04.03.20 at 12:20 pm

@#312 Genevieve

“Garth, any idea why Justin Trudeau is wearing an ankle monitor?”

——————–

It’s like an electronic dog collar. Trump zaps him when he (Trudeau) starts getting snide or self-congratulatory.

Trump has installed them on all world leaders and amuses himself by making them dance.

#339 SeeB on 04.03.20 at 12:23 pm

#311 crazyfox on 04.03.20 at 10:06 am

You can save yourself a lot of typing and just go with orange man bad. Actually saves time for all of us.

If you are actually comparing Canada to the US you have no idea of the real differences in the two countries. It would take too long to explain.

————————————————–

If only “Orange Man Bad” wasn’t just a reductive joke on the part of Trump apologists and “libtard” haters.

Would their saying “Orange Man REALLY Bad” help at all? Cause he’s like… REALLY bad. The combination of arrogance and ignorance make for a perfect storm of bad.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6772979/coronavirus-3m-n95-respirators-trump-canada/

#340 Ccs on 04.03.20 at 12:37 pm

Since wages and productivity became decoupled most people don’t have enough savings for a reason. Some of that is personal irresponsibility, but mostly its that the cost of living has risen out of step with what most jobs pay. So its not surprising that savings don’t exist for the majority.
I decided not to have kids yet and I escaped any school debt because of my family so I’ve got about 5 years of savings at this point. But if I had a kid or decided not to live like a student that would all have disappeared pretty quickly. Most people aren’t willing to forgo things like cars, vacations, etc for an investment portfolio.

#341 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 12:39 pm

#339 SeeB on 04.03.20 at 12:23 pm

You are offended that Trump wants masks for his own people? Brother, that’s what a national leader is supposed to do. Trudeau sent ours to China and they sent inferior supplies back in exchange. Trudeau has been sitting in his cottage for an entire month, he could have mobilized masks a month ago instead of giving dad sermons every day. Maybe he could ask Bombardier to make some.

The US is our best friend and ally and our economic lifeline and Canadians treat them like shite. So don’t be shocked when they decide to put their own people first.

#342 Wrk.dover on 04.03.20 at 12:42 pm

Right Wing Coup accuses Wannabe Left Wing Coup of……

#343 Keyboard Smasher on 04.03.20 at 12:46 pm

@SeeB

So basically, what you’re saying is… Orange Man bad?

Will there ever be a vaccine for the Trump Derangement sufferers?

#344 YouKnowWho on 04.03.20 at 12:50 pm

WTF is this Government of Ontario presentation?

Is this a joke? It’s gotta be the joke.

Is there a shortage of screens and graphic capability? I need to be imagining the charts and numbers and slides?

…”FOR THOSE WHO HAVE THE DECK???”

SHOW THE DAMN SLIDE ON THE SCREEN!

#345 YouKnowWho on 04.03.20 at 12:52 pm

BOOO!

6000 deaths was one imaginary model! Look at all the lives we’ve saved!

3000-15000 deaths? Sandbag on the top death number and then pat yourselves on the back for imaginary lives you saved?

This guy clearly freshens his breath with LifeSavers.

#346 Leo on 04.03.20 at 1:04 pm

*****
This episode’s painful. Scary. Terrifying. A virus 95% of victims recover from has nonetheless created public panic. Media has convinced the bulk of the population they’re at imminent risk of death.

Garth, this is a callous statement from you. If the alternative better to let it bet and not isolate so that we can spread the virus to each other?

The quoted statement is factual and accurate. Stop being a social distance warrior. – Garth
****

I am not disputing the facts. But the gvt forced a shutdown, as the rest of the world . So is the alternative of letting if bet better because as you said 95% is recoverable better? Who wants to play God here.

I suggested no alternative whatsoever. Nor was I callous. Go moan somewhere else. – Garth

#347 JB on 04.03.20 at 1:09 pm

#320 RE_Investor on 04.03.20 at 10:52 am

#134 Tenants, jeez… on 04.02.20 at 5:35 pm
At least you are 2 for 7. Leverage is a killer during times like this. I’m leverage free so I can weather any future bumps along this economic bomb!
I am 6 for 6 this month. We shall see what happens in May.

I guess you can go through the process of filing L9’s even though the LTB is shuttered (except for emergencies (http://www.sjto.gov.on.ca/ltb/forms/#landlord-forms). At least this puts them on notice. Perhaps before this is done, meet with each of your tenants (6 feet apart of course) and agree on a partial payment and then draft the agreement on a re-payment plan. You can use this document when the LTB resumes.

What is your process for selecting prospective renters?
I always ask my prospective tenants to provide a new credit score and report.
I always look for a decent income-to-rent ratio. I always make sure that all household members of the family are on the lease if the parents are borderline on the income-to-rent ratio.
I always rent my SFH below market rent. I don’t get greedy.
I always make sure to respond quickly to my tenants request for any service to the house.
There is always mutual respect between us and the tenants.
Try to buy SFH (semis and detached). Avoid condos. You can’t control what happens in the building.
So far I’ve survived the rental business since 1990 with no missed rent cheques.

Hope some of this helps you out now and in the future. You can survive, just don’t panic and sell.
……………………………………………………..
Avoiding CONDOS is easy but people who purchase them thinking that they can make money they are delusional. Renters in the condos are what destroys the market for the owners. People are inherently stupid though so meh!

#348 calgary rip off on 04.03.20 at 1:10 pm

Thanks for the post. As a health care worker I encourage all to take this disease seriously. Dont panic. Yet act like it can kill you and take defensive measures so it doesnt rather than being a fool and denying its power as it is unclear why some die and others do not. Assume it can kill you and ramp up your defenses.

I am one of the front line workers in cardiac services. There have been suspected Covid patients already. The reality is testing while helpful is unclear. It’s clear that even if a patient is asymptomatic fecal matter can spread Covid. Given that in a cardiac centre fecal exposure is not routine, the only reliable way to not be exposed is social distancing which is not entirely possible as food and necessities must be obtained. Apart from going to work and food shopping with my wife I dont go out ever, so this “new normal” is not new to me. When I was in graduate school in Idaho in 1995 there were weeks when I didnt see another human.

It is clear there is no offense yet against Covid 19. Additionally historically vaccinations have around 50% efficacy. What is also unclear is strain types during testing and resultant person response. What makes sense is to pull out all stops on defensive measures: Vitamin C 2 grams minimum daily. Vitamin D3 up to 10,000 units daily. Both C and D3 protect lungs and help immunity and virus defense. There is tons of evidence supporting this. Handwashing after touching anything. Consider everything contaminated. Breath holding if closer than 6 feet to other humans. This likely will be the new normal, as the “cat” is out of the bag and Covid 19 is now around likely forever will people be at risk from this new disease. Additionally it seems possible that in China right now wet markets have reopened. Thats exciting(sarcasm) in that animal research about what to eat is not being done. It is unwise to eat mammals(bats) that have 130+ viruses, many of which do not die(the viruses) until in excess of 105 centigrade.

If and when I get Covid 19(and survive hopefully) I intend to donate plasma/blood and be on front lines. I am blood type O+ and as such early non peer reviewed research says type O has less potential for severe complications.

Hopefully Richard Z. Cheng’s (MD PhD) model of handling both acute and potential patients is adhered to soon by the WHO to both reduce deaths and flatten the curve. Vitamin C intravenous 100 grams per day for patients introduces compassionate care while waiting for evidence based medicine to keep up.

I encourage all humans to be proactive in boosting their immunity. Consider it life or death as strain type encountered seems unknown by testing as is mutation types and rates of mutations. Get your vitamin C on board and Vitamin C on board unless you have medical contraindications to increasing the dose. If you dont have contraindications realize that “do no harm” is in keeping with ingesting vitamins which may make the difference between life and death. I for one do not prefer to feel like I am at 20,000 feet due to this stupid bat virus causing alveoli compromise and as such I am taking every available defense to protect myself which protects my family and the staff and patients I interact with daily.

Shanghai Expert Consensus on Covid 19 treatment
Richard Cheng MD PhD.
http://www.drwlc.com/blog/

I strongly urge all to consider Dr. Cheng’s advice.

#349 Not So New guy on 04.03.20 at 1:10 pm

I was at the 7-11 last night looking at a young lady working her ‘humble’ job. I thought to myself, “Little do you know, young lady, that you may have picked one of the best, most secure jobs in town.”

#350 Black Swan on 04.03.20 at 1:14 pm

I’m not really sure what to make of the report on Global news B.C., yesterday regarding the median age of death from covid19. 85 sounds like it’s right in line with mortality statistics.

Life expectancy varies in B.C. health regions, with Vancouver Coastal leading the way at 82.4 years for men and 86.4 years for women.

The Northern Region sees the lowest average life expectancy at 77.4 years for men and 81.9 years for women. The Island Health Region ranks in the middle of the five zones at 80.2 years for men and 84.1 years for women.

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/life-expectancy-lowest-in-northern-b-c-health-report-1.4269874

According to the BC Centre for Disease Control, the median age of people who contract the disease caused by the virus is 68, while the median age for people who die of it is 85.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6769101/seniors-homes-coronavirus/

#351 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 1:19 pm

@#332 Damfino
“There is either a basis for what Bill Gates says or there is not. His wealth has nothing to do with it….”
++++

Well.
His wealth certainly plays into his call for “10 weeks of isolation”.

Its far easier for a billionaire to opine about the rest of the world staying home for 10 weeks without pay.
To say his position of wealth has nothing to do with his opinion is hair splitting at its finest.

If he was living pay cheque to pay cheque ….
I highly doubt he would be insisting that he, and we, should stay home for another 10 weeks.

And since he stepped down from the Board of Directors of Microsoft a mere two weeks ago……he’s also retired….pensioned off, as it were.
Hardly a person that should be shooting off his mouth on how the rest of us should starve for another 10 weeks while he draws a pension..

#352 TurnerNation on 04.03.20 at 1:23 pm

#154 Trojan House no surprise there. The UN “climate change” plan was to force 1st World countries into forking over much money to lower countries.
Virus/Climate Change, same-same for our elite rulers. They cannot resist the power grab. Climate change wasn’t working, too many people not going along with it. Their A.I. Scraped all the online comments and convos…this time the fear has stuck. New World Order bro, get on board!!

#353 Lost...but not leased on 04.03.20 at 1:29 pm

#330 JonBoy on 04.03.20 at 11:38 am

I can’t believe that there isn’t a single journalist in Canada that hasn’t dug into the numbers to bring some sanity to what’s going on. What do they think – the virus is selectively going to old folks’ homes and wiping them out? No! It’s EVERYWHERE but it’s only really having an effect on old people (generally speaking) and immuno-compromised individuals.

Critical thinking appears to have died in this pandemic.

=============================

With very few exceptions, Canadian MSM seems to be lapdogs to the COVID 19 scam.

Didn’t Turdeau bye off the media with millions a few months ago ?

During 9-11..the boogeyman were human entities 1000’s of miles away.

In 2020…we have been brainwashed into believing anyone and everyone is a potential carrier (bio terrorist???) of the latest boogeyman aka COVID 19.

If and when this is all over….there will be a very sober reflection and analysis of the Cost versus Benefit.

#354 Not So New guy on 04.03.20 at 1:31 pm

Frustration is when you realize that had you made your trades in a slightly different way, but equally safe, you would have made $30k last month

:x

#355 Question for YVR_Lurker on 04.03.20 at 1:32 pm

#333 yvr_lurker on 04.03.20 at 11:45 am

Cultural practices of wildlife delicacies are long-lasting in China. Hopefully a new world order would involve sourcing goods from other countries and for the west to keep more of a social distance from China. I can’t see them changing their cultural practices in a way that the rest of the world can monitor and be assured of.

______________________________________

Hey YVR_lurker, how is the exam going for your 1000 engineer student?

Ever heard “HIV”? Can you exercise your last ounce of integrity and confess to the world that It IS Your Culture Practice that produced it? I would think HIV is DEFINITELY NOT Chinese, agree?

Since you appear to have ample time on hand, can you ask your engineer student to have contest to re-name the HIV? How about name it as: YVR_Lurker Love YVR_Lurker Viro?

#356 JB on 04.03.20 at 1:40 pm

#341 not 1st on 04.03.20 at 12:39 pm

#339 SeeB on 04.03.20 at 12:23 pm

You are offended that Trump wants masks for his own people? Brother, that’s what a national leader is supposed to do. Trudeau sent ours to China and they sent inferior supplies back in exchange. Trudeau has been sitting in his cottage for an entire month, he could have mobilized masks a month ago instead of giving dad sermons every day. Maybe he could ask Bombardier to make some.

The US is our best friend and ally and our economic lifeline and Canadians treat them like shite. So don’t be shocked when they decide to put their own people first.
………………………………………………………………
That is fine if they cut us off masks.
T2 can call Hydro Quebec and get them to turn off the taps. Even a 1.5% reduction in power would through the US into disarray. He can brush up on his drama teaching when he tells them that he can hear them on the phone they must have a power problem in Washington.

http://www.hydroquebec.com/international/en/exports/

#357 45north on 04.03.20 at 1:42 pm

RE_Investor:

in reply to Tenants

At least you are 2 for 7. Leverage is a killer during times like this. I’m leverage free so I can weather any future bumps along this economic bomb!

I always rent my SFH below market rent. I don’t get greedy.
I always make sure to respond quickly to my tenants request for any service to the house.
There is always mutual respect between us and the tenants.
Try to buy SFH (semis and detached). Avoid condos. You can’t control what happens in the building.
So far I’ve survived the rental business since 1990 with no missed rent cheques.

sounds good

#358 45north on 04.03.20 at 1:43 pm

yvr_lurker: talking about China: I can’t see them changing their cultural practices in a way that the rest of the world can monitor and be assured of.

me neither

#359 Fear and Panic on 04.03.20 at 1:47 pm

95% recovery rate. Projected infection rate of 0.005 % of population. Hunh.

Where is 30 to 70% of people will get this. 10 % mort rate. Time will tell but it is becoming clearer this may be an overreaction. A good overreaction, but with very very dire consequences.

Economic toll from this will lead to far more deaths and misery. Family breakdowns, opiod abuse ( which alone killed 1400 in ont last year), not to.mention direct link between poverty and shortened life span.

Like Garth said when this is over. We all need to have a serious talk.

#360 SeeB on 04.03.20 at 1:55 pm

#339 SeeB on 04.03.20 at 12:23 pm

You are offended that Trump wants masks for his own people? Brother, that’s what a national leader is supposed to do. Trudeau sent ours to China and they sent inferior supplies back in exchange. Trudeau has been sitting in his cottage for an entire month, he could have mobilized masks a month ago instead of giving dad sermons every day. Maybe he could ask Bombardier to make some.

The US is our best friend and ally and our economic lifeline and Canadians treat them like shite. So don’t be shocked when they decide to put their own people first.

————————————————————

Another ignorant knee jerk reaction. Did you read the contents of the article?

3M said if they were to do as Trump said, they it would likely provoke a response from Canada/Mexico, who provide materials for making said machines. The net effect would be LESS respirators for the US, not just Canada and Mexico.

First, as a Canadian, does it not bother you at that all that Trump would shut off the supply of respirators to Canada?

Second, you make a claim that Trudeau shipped off all our respirators. Back it up with some real evidence. Preferably not a blog or whatever Youtube personality you use for news.

This mindset and is literally what Garth has warned about for years with regards to blind nationalism and the closing of borders to trade. You would kill people here for sake of some twisted agenda.

Shout back all you want. Your shame is laid bare and we’re done.

#361 Wilbur on 04.03.20 at 1:55 pm

This too shall pass, if everyone does their do part and social distances and allows our medical facilities and doctors and nurses to handle the very ill..
Society will come up with a treatment and a vaccine.
The question will be how long before our portfolio’s return?
Those that saved and planned for our retirement will we be left holding the bag and be taxed on our capital gains at what rate?
Don’t forget folks we already paid tax on these funds…

#362 SeeB on 04.03.20 at 2:03 pm

#343 Keyboard Smasher on 04.03.20 at 12:46 pm
@SeeB

So basically, what you’re saying is… Orange Man bad?

Will there ever be a vaccine for the Trump Derangement sufferers?

———————————————————

Bad from the perspective of taking actions which would cause more damage and loss of life for the sake of wining points with blind nationalist?

Yes. Orange Man Bad.

Let me know how that Trump vaccine is going. Surely there is a market for it.

#363 John in Mtl on 04.03.20 at 2:19 pm

#358 45north on 04.03.20 at 1:43 pm

yvr_lurker: talking about China: I can’t see them changing their cultural practices in a way that the rest of the world can monitor and be assured of.

me neither

Same here. Maybe solve the problem by killing all their bats and throwing them in a fire?

Probably not, that would set off another undesirable chain reaction in the natural order of things.

#364 Abc123 on 04.03.20 at 2:21 pm

No apology whatsoever from Chinese authorities for once again plunging the world into a health , social and economic crisis.

Where is the outrage over this?

#365 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.03.20 at 2:23 pm

@#355 Question Authority
“can you ask your engineer student to have contest to re-name the HIV? ”
++++

Well, I see the People’s Army has joined the discussion……

#366 ted on 04.03.20 at 2:27 pm

#356 JB wrote “………………………………………………………………
That is fine if they cut us off masks.
T2 can call Hydro Quebec and get them to turn off the taps. Even a 1.5% reduction in power would through the US into disarray. He can brush up on his drama teaching when he tells them that he can hear them on the phone they must have a power problem in Washington.”

I think this is a perfect example of a petty Canadian. I like how people like you accuse the USA of being a bully and demand that we try to kill Americans directly on a whim by turning off the lights. Well that wouldn’t happen you clearly don’t understand how the electricity markets work but the point is you believe that if we don’t like something that they do we should try to kill them. What a petty man.

#367 Attrition on 04.03.20 at 2:36 pm

Did anyone not get the “America First” memo? I think it went out sometime in 2016.

It didn’t say “America First – subject to the needs of whiny Canadian leftists/social communists”

Those who’ve been knocking Trump and almost everything America endlessly are also the most vociferous and vocal yet again. I can’t understand this widespread wont in Canada to constantly bite the hand that feeds.

Take a four year crap all over Trump and the millions who democratically voted him in, and yet be the first to whine and complain when not getting special or preferential treatment from the same.

Delusional and hypocritical.

The other adjectives I’d like to deploy about people like that wouldn’t be shared by our host.

#368 akashic record on 04.03.20 at 2:49 pm

Chief public health officer of Canada today realized that the public wearing mask is useful.

Never too late.

#369 Armpit on 04.03.20 at 2:53 pm

TOO MANY PEOPLE AT HOME, BORED AND ADDING THEIR TWO CENTS ON THIS BLOG (I know…so am I)

#370 yvr_lurker on 04.03.20 at 3:16 pm

#355

Hey YVR_lurker, how is the exam going for your 1000 engineer student?

—–
Super-busy here. Let me suggest that you could take some time and learn a little grammar while you have more free time.

I stand completely by what I said. HIV was indeed a disaster for many segments of the population, but the key was that HIV was not an air-transmitted disease. It did not globally wipe out the entire economy and did not spread to all segments of the society. It was devasting, but very different than this. Also, at that time there were not detailed studies predicting that this contagion would jump from primates to humans.

In contrast, it has been documented for a decade by scientists that potentially very dangerous contagions lurk in live animal markets. With this knowledge, and witnessing the global shutdown with Covid19, are you perfectly happy going forward and resuming the status quo with China and not insisting on any changes on their behavior with regards to live animal markets? Are you happy to resume the 200 flights a day between China and the West when we are given the “all clear” signal? Should we all celebrate when this is over by the G7 group meeting the leaders in China for a special banquet with civet cat and pangolin on the menu? If so, you are a complete utter fool.

#371 Barb on 04.03.20 at 3:40 pm

Bet Trudeau’s now sorry of his targeted taxation on doctors’ corporations…

#372 Calgary on 04.03.20 at 4:15 pm

https://www.rt.com/news/484723-us-france-face-masks/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/mask-wars-coronavirus-outbidding-demand

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/3m-n95-masks-1.5520326

Hope the world will remember this.

#373 Ustabe on 04.03.20 at 4:25 pm

@#366 Attrition on 04.03.20 at 2:36 pm

I recall 9/11, a time of great uncertainty, when a small town in Canada opened its airport and unquestionably offered sanctuary and safety to over 7,000 US citizens. For weeks. No questions asked, no bill presented.

And here it is, April 3, 2020 and in another time of uncertainty, the President of the United States is lobbying a medical supply firm to stop selling respirator masks to Canada.

See any differences?

#374 wendy pearson on 04.03.20 at 4:29 pm

Re: #366 Attrition on 04.03.20 at 2:36 pm

One of the youtube comments which puts everything into perspective:

Maedora Smith1 week ago (edited)
This is the culmination of Trump and Putin let’s unpack a few things Trump defaulted on Deutsche Bank loan that Putin signed that’s when Putin owned Trump Trump gets elected via Russian meddling Trump has several secret meetings with Putin and other Russian government officials Trump weakens world economy with terrifs Trump dismantled the Center for Desease Control said it costed to much and called the virus a hoax Putin turns virus loose in China knowing it will cripple a already weak economy as well as kill many and go global doing the same Ever wondered why Russia hasn’t had the same devistating results from this even though Russia and China share a border ??? It all sounds bizarre but let us remember Germ warfare is the oldest tool in any governments toolbox
Show less

#375 crazyfox on 04.03.20 at 4:56 pm

#334 PastThePeak on 04.03.20 at 11:52 am

Agreed. The western world is inexperienced and unprepared for this, without question. It’s easy to look back and say, “why didn’t the world anticipate a shortage on masks, temp guns, gowns, face masks, ventilators”, it should have been obvious to people in the WHO, at intelligence, in government departments of health. That’s the problem, its too easy to see it now.

We were willingly unprepared and slow to respond. It only further confirms the likely sleepwalking and autopilot response on other serious issues of the world. The markets became our alter, be damned any truth that should get in her way.

It shouldn’t have been all that hard for the western world to follow the methodology of proven success abroad even so, but we sleep walked through it without taking it seriously. What the western world instead witnessed and endured was the denial and minimizing of how serious this virus is, and still is even now.

The disconnect between science and politicians is stark. It’s like we have to see how bad it is first, to react to it only with a fast spreading virus, there’s a 2 week lag on the numbers and with 2 weeks without testing, we can add a zero. In the U.S. on March 10th, there were 1,000 cases (April 3rd, 272,000). How many people mocked 1,000 cases as utterly insignificant to warrant a response? “What, we’re going to put air passengers into 14 day quarantines for a 100 to 1,000 cases?” “600, we’re going to shut down entire economies for that”? (Malaysia did. India… Poland, too.) It took the Republican Gov of Florida 9,000 cases to shut down today and he’s still allowing mass assembly’s in churches.

In contrast, California Gov Newsom shut down Cali after 700 cases. Most of Canada shut down after, what was it, 1500 on March 23rd? Some provinces went sooner. These are hard choices to explain to people, the kind of choices that will cost you your career if you are wrong or can’t message it right because of the economic consequences but when one understands the exponential growth potential, attack rate, transmission rate, whatever language works and the test and trace isn’t there to fill in the blanks, these are the hard choices you have to make or health care systems will likely be overwhelmed, more people will die and economically it will only cost us more.

North America’s economic nightmare was baked in as soon as the U.S. CDC tech fail with test kits became reality. That’s the truth of it. What’s also just as likely is failure was baked in as soon as Trump was elected. Only those who belong to political cults can’t see that Trump sucks at this. The May 1st U.S. Corona virus case count will be the easy testament as to why.