Rent day

“My local mechanic told me he might not make it, yet four weeks ago he couldn’t keep up with the work,” says Jeff. “For over 5 years that I’ve known him, he’s always been busy.  But now, a bump in the road that might set him back for 2 months is going to bankrupt him?  Makes no sense…he spent more than he made and now his future has come to collect. Garth, humanity is doomed because accountability is lost.”

The tide’s sweeping out. So many are naked.

Today’s rent day, for example. What a mess that may bring. Look what the cascading virus has brought crashing into our ill-prepared society.

As you may have heard, about a million tenants may not make their payments by sundown. After missing one or two paycheques, and before being bailed out by the feds’ $2,000 monthly payments, they’re tapped. Apparently all those blog posts and surveys here about half of folks being two hundred bucks from misery were correct.

Politicians are wading in, confusing many who believed rental real estate was a sure bet. The premier of Ontario has told renters straight-up that if it’s a choice between groceries and rent, they should choose food. That may be reasonable, but landlords also have to eat. Meanwhile several provinces (Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, BC) have nixed evictions and even shut down the dispute-resolution boards. In other words, non-payment of rent will have no consequences for a long, long time.

Big landlords, like residential REITs, have the financial reserves to withstand a no-rent storm (and several are trying to be empathetic). But the little guys may get crushed. Those who bought condos to rent out and were already in negative cash show (an estimated third of all leased Toronto condos, for example – ditto in Vancouver) will see real and immediate losses. There are mortgages to pay (the current bank deferral rules do not apply to rental units), condo fees, property taxes and insurance premiums.

About half all condo sales in recent years have gone to speculators, investors and amateur landlords. If tenants lose jobs, deplete savings, freak out at the shutdown of the economy, or just want to preserve their precious cash and withhold their rent, unit owners are powerless. They cannot collect. They cannot evict. They can’t turn off the water or the heat. They cannot appear before the landlord-tenant board, because it’s shut. They cannot get mortgage relief (unles CMHC-insured – rare).  They can only eat the losses.

Will government step in?

BC is giving tenants $500 a month. Ottawa’s CERB will start doling out two grand a month later in April, but no stipulation the cash is used for rent. Same with the EI payments claimed by almost two million people in the last few weeks. Face it – nobody has any sympathy for residential landlords. The impact this might have on urban real estate values is real.

Meanwhile, witness what Mr.Virus has done to Airbnb. Total collapse, to the point where the company is offering to pay some compensation to hosts whose properties are empty and will remain so. Bookings have evaporated along with travel, the value of airline stocks and the jobs of pilots. With hotel occupancy collapsing below 5% nationally, Airbnb operators are SOL. Those who bought properties solely to do short-term rentals are pooched – and at last count (before the pandemic) there were 22,000 of them in the GTA alone.

Suddenly the collective wisdom of holding income-producing real estate doesn’t look so wise. The costs remain. The revenue is gone. Gains from market appreciation are fully taxable. But the market has frozen, making a sale doubtful. The number of short-term rental units being listed is rising exponentially. Real estate’s Achilles heel – illiquidity – is kicking a lot of butts.

The same dilemma is unfolding with commercial real estate. Small businesses are in awful shape, with zero programs in place for landlords to get mortgage deferral consideration, or free money from the feds. Yup, T2 has offered to loan entrepreneurs up to $40,000, but that’s more debt and the process is complex. Lately even giant corps – like Canadian Tire and A&W – have been asking their landlords for six months of payment relief.

Meanwhile homeowners who can’t make their mortgage payment this month (or the next five) can defer it. But the costs are significant. Interest continues to accrue. There is then interest on that interest. All must be paid back later, in the form of an increased monthly or an inflated overall debt load upon renewal. And, by the way, mortgage rates have been going up.

In short, real estate’s no refuge. But a lot of tenants are about to live for free.

$      $      $

 
If you’re interested in what my suspender-snapping, fancy pants professional portfolio manager colleagues are thinking this week about markets, investments and what’s to come, here’s the conference call we had with clients last night. Stay strong.
 
Turner Investments Client Call, March 31 2020:
.mp3 Audio – OR – .m4a Audio

351 comments ↓

#1 trexx on 04.01.20 at 10:59 am

Let’s all be good neighbors…..social distancing please.

#2 Andrewski on 04.01.20 at 10:59 am

“Fasten you’re seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride”.

#3 Frumpy on 04.01.20 at 10:59 am

The only promise in life is death.

#4 Andrewski on 04.01.20 at 11:08 am

I wonder how many landlords in BC will register their illegal suites in order to be directly paid the $500 from the government?
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2020MAH0048-000561

#5 YouKnowWho on 04.01.20 at 11:12 am

This better not be “the best April Fool’s stunt” ever pulled!

Ontario – 1966 cases, 534 recoveries, 33 deaths.

Thats 1399, 14.7M people in Ontario – so, basically currently 1 positive per 10,000 people and sub 2% death rate, with 1/2 of the 33 number in that one Bobcaygeon seniors home.

Obviously this could get out of control, and this is what we’re working to prevent here.

Serious questions ahead and post Covid.

If life is worth this much fight, perhaps this will collectively make us ask “what is the meaning of life?” after this.

What are we fighting for here? Another breath? Another latte? Another new smartphone? New model of car?

I really think priorities will re-arrange after this. Of course, I could be wrong and people could just go bat$#!+ YOLO crazy and really put the pedal to the metal on the useless purchases. I somehow doubt it though.

#6 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 11:12 am

So many lessons in such a short time. Turns out all those renters are still renters for a reason. They weren’t saving mortgage pmt and investing, they were burning both ends of the candle. At least someone with their own place should have 10-20k in heloc to access you would think.

#7 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 11:16 am

The leader of the movement even got his own oped.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/hersh-were-choosing-to-keep-our-rent-and-were-asking-you-to-join-us/ar-BB120Urq?ocid=spartanntp

#8 Remembrancer on 04.01.20 at 11:24 am

Hey blog dogs its flea and tick season, before engaging with social media Fivers, useful idiot RT reposters and foreign troll factory trawlers take note…

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/russia-spreading-propaganda-during-covid-19-pandemic-canadian-study-1.4877271

#9 Fused on 04.01.20 at 11:27 am

Benefits Canada, explaining the changes to DB pension plans, new rules as brought in by OFSI, March 27th 2020 to stop pension insolvencies.
Basically, no more commuting out of your pension plans.

#10 Howard on 04.01.20 at 11:31 am

There are mortgages to pay (the current bank deferral rules do not apply to rental units)

————————

Not true, Garth.

https://nowtoronto.com/lifestyle/real-estate/small-landlords-rent-strike-toronto-coronavirus/

“Landlords with CMHC-insured mortgages who are facing financial difficulties have access to the same tools and relief measures,” says Audrey-Anne Coulombe, a spokesperson for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Try it. – Garth

#11 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 11:37 am

The financial papers are talking dividend cuts in a lot of sectors.

So renters cant make a month under duress, but big companies don’t have enough cash on hand to carry dividends for a couple months?

#12 Sail away on 04.01.20 at 11:39 am

Apocalypse preparation

A small, cheap and efficient wood stove can be made from a paint can with a Dremel and drill. Lots of videos online. A more upscale one can be built from a 12″ stovepipe with 2 endcaps.

It’s best to flatten the top to allow a pot for cooking and to put a few inches of sand in the bottom to avoid burn-through over time.

The stove can heat one insulated room or a tipi tent in comfort. Install a heatproof stovejack where the chimney pipe exits the house or tent if you choose to use a chimney.

#13 Keep Your Rent on 04.01.20 at 11:48 am

Tenants keep your rent.

Landlords keep your distance.

#14 YouKnowWho on 04.01.20 at 11:49 am

#9 Fused on 04.01.20 at 11:27 am

Basically, no more commuting out of your pension plans.

**************************

That’s a big one! Is that brand, applicable to all plans?

#15 Remembrancer on 04.01.20 at 11:50 am

#10 Howard on 04.01.20 at 11:31 am
There are mortgages to pay (the current bank deferral rules do not apply to rental units)

————————

Not true, Garth.

https://nowtoronto.com/lifestyle/real-estate/small-landlords-rent-strike-toronto-coronavirus/

“Landlords with CMHC-insured mortgages who are facing financial difficulties have access to the same tools and relief measures,” says Audrey-Anne Coulombe, a spokesperson for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Try it. – Garth
——————————————————-
Ya, first question to ask is how many of those landlords with a standard 20% down mortgage for “investment property” are actually CMHC insured? I know I wasn’t…

#16 Sail away on 04.01.20 at 11:54 am

#11 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 11:37 am

The financial papers are talking dividend cuts in a lot of sectors.

So renters cant make a month under duress, but big companies don’t have enough cash on hand to carry dividends for a couple months?

——————

Why would any company pay out dividends if doing so would jeopardize their future? Far better from a fiduciary duty to shareholders perspective to keep the money for continued operations. I would expect any company I hold shares in to do this.

This is one reason Berkshire Hathaway pays no dividends: they know how to use the money more effectively in-house.

#17 YVRmoister on 04.01.20 at 11:56 am

Doesn’t the $500 rent subsidy here in BC go directly to the landlord, never touching the hand of the tentant?

#18 Thanks for the recording on 04.01.20 at 11:56 am

I was fairly depressed this morning with BC announcing be prepared for months and Trump now saying mid Summer.
I honestly believed we would reach peak cases in about two weeks.
So two things either the government knows something we do not and it’s really bad.or they are playing with us saying yes it will be a few months, then come May 1st they will say congratulations thank you for social distancing everything worked we will be online soon.

Anyway thanks For the recording I was thinking this morning a cascading our of control death spiral starting with two million not paying rent and commercial business going under.
But your recording gave me hope that yes this is a self induced controlled comma and we will soon break free.

This will certainly be one for the record books and stories for our grandchildren.
One question Garth
What about all the government debt?

#19 SunShowers on 04.01.20 at 12:00 pm

EI and the $2000 CERB do not cover costs of living (it’s one or the other, you don’t get both simultaneously). The CERB is not going to be a “bailout” for anyone, except for the poor, overworked souls managing Service Canada’s EI applications.

Expecting Canadians to be able to pay for all the necessities like food, shelter, utilities, vehicles, etc on 55% of their income, despite all the studies showing that half of Canadians are $100 per month from insolvency was simply not realistic. What did people think was going to happen? Something has to give.

You can get angry at the government for EI/CERB being too stingy (if you could claim both simultaneously, it would be pretty easy to go about business as usual), or you can get angry at banks for offering mortgage deferral to principal residences but not investment or commercial properties.

But at the end of the day, it is extremely difficult for me to muster any sympathy for landlords and AirBNB hosts.

#20 akashic record on 04.01.20 at 12:01 pm

European banks suspend dividends. WOW!

That’s like suspending paying rent for shareholders.

#21 Remembrancer on 04.01.20 at 12:02 pm

#9 Fused on 04.01.20 at 11:27 am
Benefits Canada, explaining the changes to DB pension plans, new rules as brought in by OFSI, March 27th 2020 to stop pension insolvencies.
Basically, no more commuting out of your pension plans.
———————————————————–
Is this the link you forgot to include? Maybe not the best month to look to commute anyway n’est pas?

https://www.benefitscanada.com/news/osfi-temporarily-freezes-portability-transfers-annuity-purchases-due-to-coronavirus-144554

#22 Bogdan M on 04.01.20 at 12:02 pm

So with all of this do people really think that this won’t be worse than the GFC? To me the markets seem delusional .. and the bounce back we had may just be a dead cat bounce. There will be buying opportunities ahead but not for months.

#23 Yukon Elvis on 04.01.20 at 12:03 pm

Old as dirt here but I can remember when the rule of thumb was that we should have three months living expenses in a rainy day fund. If you didn’t, you were a big dummy and deserved what u got. We rarely drove new cars or took out of country vacations and didn’t have credit cards. Lived thru several recessions, hyperinflation, stagflation, 20% interest rates, market melt downs, etc. No one bailed us out. WTF has happened to us ?

#24 akashic record on 04.01.20 at 12:04 pm

#6 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 11:12 am

Turns out all those renters are still renters for a reason. They weren’t saving mortgage pmt and investing, they were burning both ends of the candle

Haha… non-judgemental, eh?

#25 the Jaguar on 04.01.20 at 12:07 pm

Before ‘oil’, there was always agriculture.

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/from-oil-roughneck-to-cowboy-alberta-workers-consider-career-change

#26 Brian Ripley on 04.01.20 at 12:08 pm

“Meanwhile homeowners who can’t make their mortgage payment this month (or the next five) can defer it. But the costs are significant. Interest continues to accrue. There is then interest on that interest. All must be paid back later, in the form of an increased monthly or an inflated overall debt load upon renewal. And, by the way, mortgage rates have been going up.” Garth

From Open democracy: this editorial about the bond market, interest rates and risks:
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/why-coronavirus-could-spark-capitalist-supernova/

SNIPPET:

“Interest rates are now deep in negative territory – but not if you are Italy, facing an enormous increase in its debt/GDP ratio, not if you are an indebted corporation trying to refinance your debts, not if you are an ‘emerging market’. Since March 9, corporate interest rates have gone through the roof; in fact few corporations can borrow money at any price. Investors are refusing to lend to them. Corporations are now facing a credit crunch – in the midst of global negative interest rates! That’s why the ECB decided to borrow €750 billion from these same investors, and use it to buy the corporate bonds which these same investors now refuse to purchase, and why the USA’s Federal Reserve is doing the same on an even bigger scale. Italy’s (and the EU’s) fate now depends on the willingness of the Bundesbank to replace its private creditors. Their refusal to do this would be the final stage of the EU’s death agony.”

And here is the Washington Post’s timeline of Trump’s assertions vs reality published yesterday March 31st:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/trump-coronavirus-statements/?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening

Scroll down the page to see the dynamic changes at ground level.

Investments in Trump’s vision of a “perfect” economy about to suddenly come roaring back like a “miracle” should be tightly hedged… don’t you think?

The problem with Trump is that he is a pathological liar.

So was/is Bernie Madoff.

For those that don’t understand what psychopathology produces in a small percentage of the population, here are the markers:
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/category/trump

Trump is a prime exemplar.

#27 JFC on 04.01.20 at 12:10 pm

Additionnal help coming? A line of credit that will never be repaid?

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/03/31/ottawa-eyes-low-interest-lines-of-credit-for-households-battered-by-covid-19.html

#28 Lefty on 04.01.20 at 12:10 pm

Blog post before noon – is that a first?

Airbnb is to real estate investing what crypto is to stock market investing. Enjoy your empty faux hotel rooms.

#29 Penny Henny on 04.01.20 at 12:11 pm

Someone here mentioned lottery tickets yesterday.
Today I was at Giant Tiger and saw a sign that read “as of Mar 29 we are no longer selling, checking or cashing lottery tickets until further notice”.

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.20 at 12:12 pm

April 1st

I wonder how many people with “automatic rent” withdraw access for their landlord just got dinged with a $100 NSF fee from the banks….

#31 YouKnowWho on 04.01.20 at 12:13 pm

New Ontario numbers.

2392, 689 resolved, 37 deaths. In Ontario 1.1 cases per 10,000 people – a 10% increase from yesterday.

Canada Wide

8,591 cases reported, 1,297 recoveries and 101 deaths. Health officials have administered 244,846 tests.

1.91 cases per 10,000 country wide.

3.5% positives on tests.

1.2% death rate, likely to increase.

#32 Dutchy on 04.01.20 at 12:14 pm

Warren Buffett’s quote:
“it’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.”

#33 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 12:16 pm

Well color me shocked, after being locked under house arrest for 2 months, Chinese people popped out and filed for divorce. Coming here next.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/divorces-spike-in-china-after-coronavirus-quarantines

#34 Long Memory on 04.01.20 at 12:18 pm

And the keep your rent crowd can’t figure out why nobody will rent to them when the crisis passes, and it will. Just like the people who walked away from mortgages can’t figure out why nobody will give them a mortgage even though it happened more than 7 years ago. Duh

#35 Mattl on 04.01.20 at 12:23 pm

“My local mechanic told me he might not make it, yet four weeks ago he couldn’t keep up with the work,” says Jeff. “For over 5 years that I’ve known him, he’s always been busy. But now, a bump in the road that might set him back for 2 months is going to bankrupt him? Makes no sense…he spent more than he made and now his future has come to collect. Garth, humanity is doomed because accountability is lost.”

—————————————————————

I agree this is ridiculous. But that consumer spending is what was driving the markets. If the mechanic and millions like him weren’t living cheque to cheque, we don’t have Dow 29k.

And FWIW, large business and Gov did not save for a rainy day either. Basically everyone was living it up.

And that is why is it IS different this time. Consumer spending is not going to come back, people will learn big financial lessons. High unemployment will likely be persistent, and long term.

I think the idea that we know what’s coming – a V shaped recovery – is naive. It’s just as likely that we go through a long period of slow recovery. I don’t see how we rebound quickly from this.

#36 Doug t on 04.01.20 at 12:27 pm

What a bloody mess – this is going crush so many people and for a long time. Try to be KIND to one another during this storm people

#37 Mattl on 04.01.20 at 12:27 pm

And regarding renters missing April rent, that has more to do with dirtbags trying to skirt responsibility then personal finances. Layoffs only started recently, and very few Canadians have missed a cheque as of yet.

If 1MM renters – who have been heavily subsidized by their landlords, amirite?- are missing their payments then I would expect that homeowners will miss twice as many payments.

I think we are going to learn two things; people are screwed, being a landlord to bottom feeders sucks, and renters have far worse outcomes.

#38 Lee on 04.01.20 at 12:28 pm

#5,

My understanding is the death rate from the regular flu is 0.1%. So 2% is a huge difference. That’s 20 dead for every 1000 infected instead of 1. Right now Canada is at 108 deaths for about 9,000 cases. That would be 0.1% or so death rate. Although, the deaths appear like they will double shortly, so the 0.1% will likely rise. Of course, we will never know if what we are doing worked, or if the virus was not as bad as advertised. At this point, seems like at least a few more weeks of pain are in order before politicians have to make some big decisions. I am not sure we can take this until July as some politicians suggest. I don’t know if hospitalization rates and ICU rates are higher for COVID.

#39 conan on 04.01.20 at 12:38 pm

I think most of these Airbnb units are going to go on the market. Meaning, they become normal rental units.

Could be an opportunity for renters near the end of their lease, and they live in over priced digs.

#40 Andrewski on 04.01.20 at 12:41 pm

Warren Buffet Op Ed:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-latest-advice-could-help-you-retire-much-richer-2020-03-16

#41 Harley Tempke on 04.01.20 at 12:41 pm

Correction: BC renters can apply for the $500 rental assistance BUT it is tied to first being approved by the Trudeau Libs for that program AND the $500 goes direct to the landlord not the tenant.

Second, there is no way to apply yet for either program as government has not clarified who may apply and what criteria applies to whom and why they and how anyone might qualify. The questions haven’t been made public by CRA.

IMHO this talk from government is all smoke being blown up our collective asses to assuage as many people as possible while EI Cheques go out putting the truly desperate into a more ignorable minority. It won’t surprise me if there is zero money going out any time soon.

Anyone relying on the mixed signals from Trudeau Kibs is desperate indeed and so unnerved they can’t think straight. Read the fine print of the offerings , they have said a lot, confused many, done nothing. Sound familiar?

#42 just say no on 04.01.20 at 12:42 pm

Blood from a stone……it’s a lotto winner world…4 millionaires made yesterday on lotto Max…..30,000 millionaires made in Canada in 2019….can anyone help a fellow Canadian? I am sorry to see all those that tried so hard in life to end up suffering with all this friction and illness and fear. Easter around the corner…speaking of blood.

#43 Soryn on 04.01.20 at 12:44 pm

#6 not 1st

“So many lessons in such a short time. Turns out all those renters are still renters for a reason. They weren’t saving mortgage pmt and investing, they were burning both ends of the candle. At least someone with their own place should have 10-20k in heloc to access you would think.”
——————————————
What an arrogant a$$ you are. Many renters choose to be renters because it financially makes sense or they have no other choice. Have some compassion you schmuck and gain some insight.

#44 TurnerNation on 04.01.20 at 12:49 pm

Early on I posted here that we are witnessing the greatest Corporate Global Takeover ever.
Let’s see an opinion from Bloomberg scribes.
It mentions Blackrock. They and others like Statestreet, Fidelity, own almost all the ETF and holdings.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-27/federal-reserve-s-financial-cure-risks-being-worse-than-disease

To put it bluntly, the Fed isn’t allowed to do any of this. The central bank is only allowed to purchase or lend against securities that have government guarantee. This includes Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities and the debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. An argument can be made that can also include municipal securities, but nothing in the laundry list above.

So how can they do this? The Fed will finance a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for each acronym to conduct these operations. The Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, will make an equity investment in each SPV and be in a “first loss” position. What does this mean? In essence, the Treasury, not the Fed, is buying all these securities and backstopping of loans; the Fed is acting as banker and providing financing. The Fed hired BlackRock Inc. to purchase these securities and handle the administration of the SPVs on behalf of the owner, the Treasury.

In other words, the federal government is nationalizing large swaths of the financial markets. The Fed is providing the money to do it. BlackRock will be doing the trades.

#45 IHCTD9 on 04.01.20 at 12:49 pm

Well I’m sure it’s been said already, but maybe this virus is the shake down some of these urban RE birdbrains needed.

Blow everything you’ve got on a 600sf “investment” condo, only to find in a few short years that:

1. Mortgage rates are going up
2. The expected huge appreciation ain’t happening
3. You’re having a hell of a time renting the thing out
4. Your esteemed tenants just turned April’s rent cheque into beer money

Some folks have to learn the hard way.

#46 VancouverGuy on 04.01.20 at 12:51 pm

I was wondering if there is data on how many properties are under mortgages vs. those financed. The situation is quite different for properties where there is non financing. Just operating costs (incl.taxes) vs. paying off operating costs and payments.

#47 Spiltbongwater on 04.01.20 at 12:52 pm

Garth, do you think the BC provincial government will be smart enough and use their new database of landlords to make sure landlords have been reporting rental income? I think they could get a windfall of information to share with CRA of where and what is being rented.

We rent, we won’t get any help from BC as our income has not been effected yet, and we have savings so BC said we need not apply. I have not read the rebate policy, but hopefully there is cap on rebate that the $500 can only be used if the rent was $2000 per month or less. Are they saying the person renting a $4000 per month hpuse in West Van will get $500 off the rent? Maybe they should have lived in cheaper digs.

#48 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 12:55 pm

#42 Soryn on 04.01.20 at 12:44 pm

Truth hurts buddy and there is no sense sugar coating it even if it offends you. That’s your problem. If the place you desire to live in so bad will make you a chronic renter with zero emergency fund and no investments then you have made a bad life decision.

Only personal equity, not the govt, can save you in a crisis and looks like most renters have none.

#49 BillyBob on 04.01.20 at 12:55 pm

#27 Mattl on 04.01.20 at 12:23 pm

And that is why is it IS different this time. Consumer spending is not going to come back, people will learn big financial lessons. High unemployment will likely be persistent, and long term.

——

Yeeeeahhh…no. You vastly, vastly overestimate the intelligence of the populace at large. The second they get the ” all clear” they’ll be right back to their entitled ways. Zero collective memory.

———————————————————————————

I think we are going to learn two things; people are screwed, being a landlord to bottom feeders sucks, and renters have far worse outcomes.

——-

Mostly agree except need to qualify the last statement. Renter these days is far, far better than a leveraged owner or a big mortgage. A bad rental rep may hurt some day if you renege on the rent, but not as bad as losing your purchased home.

Even with a paid-for residence I’m glad to have a modest one with low running costs instead some massive McMansion.

#50 N on 04.01.20 at 12:56 pm

For years, regulators have tried to make the financial system safer by blocking banks from taking on the extreme leverage that almost toppled the industry in 2008. Turns out, the risks just moved.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/supercharged-debt-bets-unravel-and-expose-wall-street-s-big-risk

#51 dutch4505 on 04.01.20 at 12:58 pm

#22 Yukon Elvis
Old as dirt here but I can remember when the rule of thumb was that we should have three months living expenses in a rainy day fund. If you didn’t, you were a big dummy and deserved what u got. We rarely drove new cars or took out of country vacations and didn’t have credit cards. Lived thru several recessions, hyperinflation, stagflation, 20% interest rates, market melt downs, etc. No one bailed us out. WTF has happened to us ?

___________

amen Sorry….I am driving a 14 year old Subaru with 300K kilometers. New F150 and two European vacations per year brother in law is crying the blues.

#52 Reynolds753 on 04.01.20 at 1:02 pm

#3 Frumpy on 04.01.20 at 10:59 am
The only promise in life is death.
_________________________________

And taxes

#53 Mike in Calgary on 04.01.20 at 1:02 pm

I told my tennant in my rental condo that if he needs a break for a few months to let me know. He’s a good guy and I’m happy to accomodate him. And it hasn’t had a mortgage for the last 4 years.
I was in my my 20’s during the 80’s in Calgary. I learned back then that debt should be avoided or is used only when absolutely necessary. And bankers are not your friends.
This is going to be another hard lesson for alot of people.

#54 IHCTD9 on 04.01.20 at 1:03 pm

#30 YouKnowWho on 04.01.20 at 12:13 pm
New Ontario numbers.

2392, 689 resolved, 37 deaths. In Ontario 1.1 cases per 10,000 people – a 10% increase from yesterday.
——

Or…

2.5 Millionths of 1% of the population of Ontario has died from CV-19.

.0000025%, that’s about double the chances of a Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction level asteroid hit reoccurring in 2020.

#55 Devil Anse on 04.01.20 at 1:13 pm

#28 Penny Henny on 04.01.20 at 12:11 pm
Someone here mentioned lottery tickets yesterday.
Today I was at Giant Tiger and saw a sign that read “as of Mar 29 we are no longer selling, checking or cashing lottery tickets until further notice”.

——————————–

It’s true, they don’t want people passing pieces of paper back and forth. But the online purchases are still up and running. Ergo, many fewer people playing, increasing odds of winning ‘guaranteed’ prizes. From what I can tell, only the 6/49 has this feature (a guaranteed million bucks with each draw).

#56 Andrew on 04.01.20 at 1:15 pm

Cute call. The hopium is real. Brb gunna make some hedges based on foreign policy oil hunches.

Down we go boys buckle up

#57 Marco on 04.01.20 at 1:18 pm

Face it – nobody has any sympathy for residential landlords.

True and true. How come you weren’t landlords in countries from you came here. You were proles.

#58 paulo on 04.01.20 at 1:21 pm

Wow amazing how things can change quickly

Banks in the British isles RBS,STANDRED,and a number of others have gated mortgage approvals to 25 to 40 % of LTV
A Snap shot of whats Coming……
As for the big fiver here in canuckastan i would look carefully at there sub prime condo loan portfolios and be on the look out for junk etf offerings with these sub prime garbage loans condos are death in major markets in Canada likely going to 30 or 40 cents on the dollar of current ponzi scheme prices

#59 Doing better than a doctor, apparently on 04.01.20 at 1:23 pm

WOW! I guess I don’t have to feel so bad about having a “crappy” job after all. I keep my expenses low, rent and have almost a years salary saved up just in case.
I need to get this money working, though. Any advice on which robo investors are the best? I don’t have THAT much money saved so I don’t want to pay too much in fees.

#60 paulo on 04.01.20 at 1:24 pm

RE post #43

Required minimum down payments of 25 to 40 % of
LTV

#61 Sam on 04.01.20 at 1:26 pm

It’s not true that rental properties can’t defer their mortgages? I bank with TD and RBC and have 2 rental properties. They both qualified it for 6 month deferral. However I did go the very next day at the branch when the announced it, so not sure if they’ve undergone changes to their policies since then.

#62 Pity the Debt Pigs on 04.01.20 at 1:26 pm

Can’t help feeling proud that our household does not have to consider stiffing our landlord or applying for government financial aid.

We have lived responsibly below our means and have nary a care about our financial future.

I hope this serves as a wake up call to all the people who have lived as debt pigs.

While I am mildly annoyed our government needs to bail out a large portion of our citizens, I am proud not to be one of them.

Garth, thanks for the financial education you give day after day. I have absorbed every word.

#63 Pity the Debt Pigs on 04.01.20 at 1:31 pm

Is it now a question of when instead of if the government starts collecting capital gains on the sale of primary residences? Seems like the last unexplored taxation avenue left. This covid bill is going to be huuuge.

#64 Honest Realtor on 04.01.20 at 1:32 pm

This blog seems to be promoting the idea of not paying rent for April and onwards. Why this pic today and so much room given for people to brag how they won’t pay rent?

As much glee as you may take in a possible downturn of the real estate sector, Mr. Turner, be very careful what you wish for.

Real estate is now very embedded in our entire economy. If it crashes, so will everything. And I guarantee that in the wreckage afterwards you won’t have enough clients coming to your business to invest in stocks for you to pay your bills either.

Having a bad day? – Garth

#65 Blacksheep on 04.01.20 at 1:33 pm

There has been a lot of media chatter in the last few days:

1) That Covid restrictions are likely to not loosen up, till July.

2) Dr. Bonnie and others, publicly voicing concerns about a “second wave”.

Based on this new messaging, I thing there’s gonna be a problem.

The “Stay home” plan is not going to work for too much longer, because the now complacent public, will run out of patience.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQQrIGkAtSk

Once they realize this bug will become endemic and with us until a vaccine is produced (12-18 months if ever) they’ll start demanding to get back to work before we economically destroy our society.

The good news is this “social distancing” will flatten out just enough of the curve, to stop the H.S. from becoming overwhelmed with cases, causing significantly more loss of life. It will become accepted that we cant really reduce the # of people that become infected, only the timeline at which it takes place.

Societies’ mindset will shift to:

There are something’s in this world we cannot stop.

So lets get the hell on with it.

Then nature, will run its course.

#66 AGuyInVancouver on 04.01.20 at 1:36 pm

#38 conan on 04.01.20 at 12:38 pm
I think most of these Airbnb units are going to go on the market. Meaning, they become normal rental units.

Could be an opportunity for renters near the end of their lease, and they live in over priced digs.
_ _ _
Who will be able to afford to rent them?

#67 Doug t on 04.01.20 at 1:40 pm

#63 Honest Realtor

Honest? Come on now please – the ponzi of your sector has helped lead us here fool

#68 KNOW IT ALL on 04.01.20 at 1:40 pm

WHY are CANADIAN NURSES and DOCTORS that work in the US able to cross borders everyday??

They are bringing COVID-19 INTO CANADA and helping to spread it.

MAKE the American hospitals pay for them to stay over there!!!!!!

#69 Remembrancer on 04.01.20 at 1:41 pm

#11 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 11:37 am
#19 akashic record on 04.01.20 at 12:01 pm
European banks suspend dividends. WOW!

That’s like suspending paying rent for shareholders.
——————————————–
No its not.

While it may make a catchy meme, dividends are not a contracted payment for owning a share ie rent, unlike actual rent which is based on the terms of a contract – aka the lease which for example is a contract between the landlord and tenant both who have rights and obligations, including payment…

#70 Mattl on 04.01.20 at 1:42 pm

Soryn – the context here is this is a comments section that has blasted RE owners for years. Everyone that owns a home is in debt up to their eyeballs, renters are getting one over on their landlords, renters are saving the delta between the cost of rent and the cost of home ownership. Renters were going to vulch in large numbers when the RE finally corrected, etc.

Some of us have been saying for years, careful what you wish for. The event that takes out RE likely takes out the economy. The fact that 1mm renters can’t pay rent two weeks into a crisis makes it pretty clear to me that renters have worse outcomes.

I’ve been accused of being a realtor multiple times for saying this – and that owning a home is an important part of middle class financial balance. 250k people applied for mortgage deferral, 1mm renters (1/3 of the population) can’t pay rent. Maybe the idea that homeowners are pickled in debt and renters are getting the upper hand is a bit if a canard?

#71 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 1:42 pm

Suspected SARS virus and flu samples found in luggage: FBI report describes China’s ‘biosecurity risk’

https://news.yahoo.com/suspected-sars-virus-and-flu-found-in-luggage-fbi-report-describes-chinas-biosecurity-risk-144526820.html

#72 Neo on 04.01.20 at 1:43 pm

#37 Lee on 04.01.20 at 12:28 pm
#5,

My understanding is the death rate from the regular flu is 0.1%. So 2% is a huge difference. That’s 20 dead for every 1000 infected instead of 1. Right now Canada is at 108 deaths for about 9,000 cases. That would be 0.1% or so death rate. Although, the deaths appear like they will double shortly, so the 0.1% will likely rise. Of course, we will never know if what we are doing worked, or if the virus was not as bad as advertised. At this point, seems like at least a few more weeks of pain are in order before politicians have to make some big decisions. I am not sure we can take this until July as some politicians suggest. I don’t know if hospitalization rates and ICU rates are higher for COVID.

********************************************

To answer your question there are 120 cases of ICU treatment in hospitals….That is in the entire country. Why did Ford just order 10,000 ventilators for just Ontario? There aren’t even 10,000 cases yet in Canada. This is totally being blown way out of proportion.

#73 JSS on 04.01.20 at 1:52 pm

The REIT : XRE, and I guess BPY, are looking good now.

At least with XRE, you’re getting a monthly income.
It’s only $13 something a unit – cheaper than toilet paper

#74 Mattl on 04.01.20 at 1:52 pm

48- not true, the median renter today if likely in a far worse position. 40 percent of homeowners have no mortgage at all. And the 1.7 in mortgage debt is backed by 6t in equity. And homeowner median income is twice that of renters.

I don’t wish poor on anyone – even though lots of renters want homeowners to get crushed – but the median renter is going are going to take a far bigger hit as this thing plays out. The idea that they were saving the difference between rent and home ownership has alway been ridiculous.

#75 Ed on 04.01.20 at 1:56 pm

People are getting sick from G5 radiation not corona virus
Fear and stress shut down peoples immune systems and affect the way we think… Its about the Banks and bailing out the crooks.
Meanwhile, in Canada:
100 dead
37,560,000 in lock down.
More than 100 people in my neighborhood get on their balconies everyday and cheer at 7PM. This while their liberties are being systematically severed from them, and their financial choke collars tightened.
The corona virus exists. It has many many different strains, viruses mutate all the time. This new strain has been used to frighten people into submitting to shutdowns of entire countries, which will lead to the greatest global depression of all time. This virus appears to be fairly mild when symptoms manifest, but the powers that be have chosen to use it to manipulate billions of people to bend to their will. This has been planned for a long time, and sadly the time is now here.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.20 at 1:58 pm

@#63 Honest Realtor
“Real estate is now very embedded in our entire economy. If it crashes, so will everything. And I guarantee that in the wreckage afterwards you won’t have enough clients coming to your business to invest in stocks for you to pay your bills either.”
++++

Bwahahahaha.

Honest realtor…..

Bwahahahahahahahaahahahahhaha.

Thanks for the belly laugh.

Apparently the corona virus and the stock market slump dont “rate” one iota in your narcissistic “Real Estate is everything” existence.
Pathetic

#77 MF on 04.01.20 at 2:00 pm

“Face it – nobody has any sympathy for residential landlords. The impact this might have on urban real estate values is real.”

-I know I don’t. Sorry. You take the risk you face the consequences. That is how this whole investment thing is supposed to work, right?

Well it hasn’t over the last decade.

These people have been coddled and babied like they were some too big to fail necessity for years. We’ve seen never ending accommodative policies implemented for their benefit at the expense of all other aspects of our economy. The risk was removed yet the reward maintained, creating a fully artificial sense of invincibility, complacency, and abhorrent arrogance.

The interesting thing is that the whole time alarms were repeatedly raised and then immediately discarded. Well here we are. The entire warped system looks like it’s about to be brought to its knees and no one should be surprised.

Me? My rent is paid, as always. My landlord is nice, although she lives overseas (country unnamed)like so many. Owing the rent was never the issue here though. The issue is how landlords have been given way too many perks. Given the current situation, renters are demanding the same protection too.

MF

#78 jack on 04.01.20 at 2:01 pm

won’t those airbnb landlords just request mortgage deferrals? Lets see what happens in 6 months.

#79 TheDood on 04.01.20 at 2:07 pm

#63 Honest Realtor on 04.01.20 at 1:32 pm
This blog seems to be promoting the idea of not paying rent for April and onwards. Why this pic today and so much room given for people to brag how they won’t pay rent?

As much glee as you may take in a possible downturn of the real estate sector, Mr. Turner, be very careful what you wish for.

Real estate is now very embedded in our entire economy. If it crashes, so will everything. And I guarantee that in the wreckage afterwards you won’t have enough clients coming to your business to invest in stocks for you to pay your bills either.

Having a bad day? – Garth
_________________________________________

‘RE is now very embedded in our entire economy’

There lies the problem. How much of Canada’s GDP is tied to locals selling WAY OVER PRICED real estate to one another. This is stupid, and has to stop, and we’re now presented with an opportunity to reset and go in a different direction, which we should. That model is not sustainable and is the major reason people do not have the financial means to sustain themselves when we hit a bump in the road.

#80 Eaglebay on 04.01.20 at 2:12 pm

#13 Keep Your Rent on 04.01.20 at 11:48 am

“Tenants keep your rent.

Landlords keep your distance.”

You’re a crook. Not facing up to your obligations is theft. You’re stealing from your landlord and as a parasite you want the government to bail you out.

#81 Blacksheep That Was So Funny! on 04.01.20 at 2:17 pm

Thank-you Blacksheep for the YouTube clip. I’m a married woman and even I was giggling! That made my day :-)

#82 Faron on 04.01.20 at 2:18 pm

#26 JFC on 04.01.20 at 12:10 pm

Additionnal help coming? A line of credit that will never be repaid?

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/03/31/ottawa-eyes-low-interest-lines-of-credit-for-households-battered-by-covid-19.html

———————————————————————-

There are strong cases to be made for this. Think of it like student loans. A student borrows at a low rate for four years in order to learn and gain skills all the while not contributing much to the economy. This benefits all in the end by producing a well-educated, skilled workforce. It’s an investment made by society to improve people’s chances of a better paying job than their parents had. And, if the gov’t is going to provide infinite credit to corporations, the very least it can do is extend a similar hand to citizens.

Demonstrated need. You need to show through tax filings and bank statements that you are on the verge of being bled dry and not because you own two spec condos and an Audi.

These loans should be regulated so that repayment is required regardless of bankruptcy or any other mitigating factor thus helping to ensure repayment.

Repayment could be rolled into the tax structure so that annual filing needs to demonstrate payment else your tax bill is raised (if your income is above some threshold level).

Interest rates should be very low. Benchmark + 1%. But there should be interest. There’s risk here and interest will encourage repayment.

Loans should be forgiven in full or partially if people take jobs in less desirable locations or in high-needs fields.

Payment is immediately deferred if a person is out of work or goes back to university or trade school.

Some mechanism is needed to show that funds are being used for living expenses. You take a loan, you agree that you are going to file the receipts of expenditures on your tax return.

Credit limit should be high. Annual income x 0.6 x projected virus timeline.

#83 Dmitry on 04.01.20 at 2:22 pm

#13 Keep Your Rent

You are an idiot with your idiotic movement.

My tenant is paying rent this month – not all of it, but majority of the amount with the rest next month.

#84 MF on 04.01.20 at 2:22 pm

53 IHCTD9 on 04.01.20 at 1:03

IH,

Mortality rate is one factor, infection numbers are another. Strain on the health care system is a third bigger factor here.

What happens if someone with lung issues not related to covid needs treatment but no beds are available? Does that count in the covid stats? Someone with asthma who needs emergency treatment? Are they captured?

Right now all we are doing is buying time. Time for the medical system to adapt, and for some treatment to be developed.

Check out the world case curve to see we are in this.
Hint: it’s not good.

MF

#85 baloney Sandwitch on 04.01.20 at 2:22 pm

The govt has created a moral hazard by banning evictions. Non-payment of rent has no consequences. Not that I blame them because the govt does not want a family evicted for not paying rent in the middle of a pandemic.

#86 Trojan House on 04.01.20 at 2:24 pm

“Mr. Virus?” Why not Mrs. Virus?

Some commenters on this pathetic blog seem to take joy in the misery of other people. All the “I told you so” people are having a field day.

While predictions of the end of times come and go, who could have foreseen governments’ reaction to this virus pandemic? Nobody, unless perhaps Nostradamus, but he’s no longer around.

Who could have seen a pandemic create this much turmoil in the world? Apparently, WHO and other health organizations but true to form, out of sight, out of mind.

People are in trouble I think because this is the lifestyle that the West has sown in the last 30 years or so. Consumerism at its greatest level. Free flowing credit, monthly payments instead of total cash payment. Go in to any car dealership and the first thing they ask you is what you want your monthly payment to be. Price inflation running rampant (pick up trucks up to $80,000), 84 months to pay back a loan, all-inclusive vacations every year and it goes on and on. And of course, house lust – tear downs selling for a million bucks, $800,000 mortgages… All paid for by credit and debt being promoted by governments and the financial industry.

So I can’t blame people. This lifestyle has been hammered into our heads. And now all the “I told you so” people trying to rub salt in the wounds of people who will be truly hurting after all this is said and done. Good for you that you drive a 14 year old Subaru. You’re not better than anyone but, yeah, perhaps you were more prudent. And if this situation were in didn’t happen, you wouldn’t be able to gloat. So keep it to yourself. Just be thankful you’re not in the same situation and be sympathetic to people who are.

#87 Wait There on 04.01.20 at 2:27 pm

Well there is a simple solution here. Just like equifax, we can have a registry for those who stiffed the landlords.
Landlords have to register to view the database. When the rental period ends and they are applying to rent. A simple check can be made.
Mortgage holders are not getting anything free. They are deferring their payment. They are still paying to have shelter. Renters must understand this. If they want to defer payment, the government must loan them the money. Doug Ford needs to wake up to this.

This is fair.

#88 Wait There on 04.01.20 at 2:33 pm

The return orders should apply when the flatness is done or the load is easing in the hospital. First there will be an antibody test that NYC is currently testing. Others are also doing the same thing. To test everyone will be an impossible task. So intially, those under 30 who have no underlying medical issue will be requested to return to work. All those above a certain age who wants to return will then be tested for antibodies. After a month or three weeks the bottom end will move up so that those over 35 will be requested. etc.
I understand doctors want to prevent deaths but doctors will not be able to practice if there is no money for the hospital and drugs etc. So some kind of compromise will be required.

#89 Doghouse Dweller on 04.01.20 at 2:36 pm

Ford f-150 raptor dudes fear not ! Ford Credit to provide payment relief during crisis . Customers there can call and discuss options.
Gas, plates and insurance can go on the MBNA Harley-Davidson Mastercard . No legend left behind.
KIA folks pay up or else !

#90 Damifino on 04.01.20 at 2:41 pm

#22 Yukon Elvis

WTF has happened to us ?
———————————–

A fire hose of free money drained a stunning amount of wealth from the future. Then the future became now.

#91 Marco on 04.01.20 at 2:43 pm

Relax. Small time landlords do not declare their income
to avoid taxes, therefore they will not ask government to bail them out. All is cool.

#92 Blog Bunny on 04.01.20 at 2:45 pm

People, make sure to take good care of your pets through this mess.

#93 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 2:54 pm

#82 Dmitry on 04.01.20 at 2:22 pm
#13 Keep Your Rent

My tenant is paying rent this month – not all of it, but majority of the amount with the rest next month.

——

Back in 2008 when I was a landlord, one of my tenents start out just like that. Late, but partial pmt with promise to get the rest in 10 days. Never came. next month, no rent but lots of excuses. Gave him another months grace while he squatted in my place. At the end of that with threat of eviction he gave me 3 post dated cheques to catch up as his income came in. Every cheque bounced on its date.

After that we were at the rental ombudsman to file for eviction. He had the nerve to show up the proceedings and beg for leniency which he got for 2 more months. Finally another application led to an order to evict. A warning at his door by the bailsman led to him being forcefully dragged from the residence 3 days later in front of his 3 yrs old child.

An investigation found that he had assets of some type in the US but we were unable to access them for damages due to cross border technicalities.

And that’s why I will never be a landlord again.

Moral to the story, once some of these people get behind the 8 ball, this is where it eventually ends up.

#94 Howard on 04.01.20 at 2:54 pm

#92 Howard on 04.01.20 at 2:53 pm
#60 Sam on 04.01.20 at 1:26 pm
It’s not true that rental properties can’t defer their mortgages? I bank with TD and RBC and have 2 rental properties. They both qualified it for 6 month deferral. However I did go the very next day at the branch when the announced it, so not sure if they’ve undergone changes to their policies since then.

——————————-

See, Garth? What you claimed is not true.

And this landlord gets to avoid paying his mortgages for two months without any hit to his credit score (unbelievable, really) and presumably without having to present proof of financial duress. Must be nice to have the government constantly stack the deck in his favour. Renters who are financially secure certainly can’t get access to a 6 month deferral to use the extra cash in the stock market.

——————–

Six months, I meant.

Don’t be so sure. Mortgages that are not CMHC-insured have no guarantee of a deferral – and most investment properties require a 20% downpayment (no insurance). In any case, mortgage deferral is not mortgage-free. This means an increased debt and higher future payments, while a tenant skipping rent may never make the LL whole. Not so happy a situation for osners. Meanwhile condo fees and taxes need to be financed. – Garth

#95 thewolf on 04.01.20 at 2:56 pm

The secret now that moral hazard has been tested and embraced (brought to you by the guys in finance) is to make sure you are too big to fail – i.e. stick with the herd.

Too many people cannot pay rent so gov will pay it for you. If thousands continue not to pay rent even after the virus is gone gov will have to keep bailing them out as the system will just not be able to handle default on that scale, wall street has taught us that, now packaged and accessible to the masses.

They call this Modern Monetary Theory – gov prints and pays.

Enjoy the chickens coming home to roost – stay in the middle of the flock and enjoy!

Just don’t worry about a thing, you will be punished if you are prudent…

#96 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 3:01 pm

Oh I forgot the best part of that story. Upon imminent forgeable eviction, the tenant doxxed me, found out my home address and phone number, threatened that he knew people in my city who take care of sht and that I should watch my back.

Fun times.

#97 Hans on 04.01.20 at 3:04 pm

LTB is closed… that means legal evictions can’t happen. What’s the result? Reports of landlords locking tenants out – what did people think was going to happen? LTB being shut works both ways – legal evictions can’t happen, but renters also don’t have their main source of protection available. It’s hard not to have sympathy for people losing their jobs and being in a difficult spot. At the same time, people holding back rent because they don’t feel they should pay should be tossed to the curb for taking advantage of the current situation.

#98 I’m stupid on 04.01.20 at 3:04 pm

I guess giving the same interest rate to someone with a chmc insured mortgage and someone with a loan to value ratio of 99% was not the same risk. Who would have thunk it.

Now this
https://apple.news/AKqm__ltrSrOpnAlEJcFTeA

#99 Gil on 04.01.20 at 3:07 pm

“My local mechanic told me he might not make it, yet four weeks ago he couldn’t keep up with the work,” says Jeff. “For over 5 years that I’ve known him, he’s always been busy. But now, a bump in the road that might set him back for 2 months is going to bankrupt him? Makes no sense…he spent more than he made and now his future has come to collect. Garth, humanity is doomed because accountability is lost.”
***************************************

A micro example of the macro economy over the last decade. Private citizens, governments, whole economic sectors – boom. I would understand if we were having this discussion in July, fine. We started having it before the quarantine really started in North America.

A real indication of a V shaped recovery indeed

#100 Blacksheep on 04.01.20 at 3:10 pm

Complaisant public, not complacent public.

#101 J on 04.01.20 at 3:13 pm

“The same dilemma is unfolding with commercial real estate. Small businesses are in awful shape, with zero programs in place for landlords to get mortgage deferral consideration, or free money from the feds.”

I own some commercial RE. I called my lenders (two large banks and a smaller credit union) and they were all more than willing to work with me if need be. Either interest only or full deferral for 3-6 months. So although there are not any official programs in place, with my anecdotal experience it seems that they want to help keep their clients afloat, albeit on a case-by-case basis.

#102 JonBoy on 04.01.20 at 3:15 pm

My happy rent story for the day (for those that think all landlords are bad and that renters have been marginalized for long enough):

I emailed my landlord just to tell him not to worry about us not paying rent, that I was still working without issue, and we had plenty of savings if I did lose my job. With all the hoopla going on about renters not paying their landlords, I figured a bit of proactive support wouldn’t go awry and maybe would help him sleep a little better at night.

He responded quickly to thank me for the email, congratulated me on our new baby (he knew we were expecting), and told me things were tight on his end (income down 50%). He’s working with his bank to try and mitigate some of these issues (non-payment of rent, primarily) and they’re doing what they can but he’s still going to be hard-hit if this continues for long.

HOWEVER, despite that situation he offered me a $100/month reduction in rent because of the increased costs of a new baby and because he knows things are probably getting tight for many people.

I thanked him for the offer but suggested he hold onto it to help offset his losses and said that we could revisit the conversation if in fact I did lose my job (temporarily or otherwise).

Imagine, a friendly, supportive conversation between landlord and tenant, with understanding and goodwill throughout. Who’d’ve thunk it?

#103 renter in Surrey on 04.01.20 at 3:18 pm

Opinion – corona virus will do nothing to sky high prices of #vanre, same as GFC, stress test, etc.

#104 Lost...but not leased on 04.01.20 at 3:19 pm

Friend and I did some on-line research.

There are a growing number of Vloggers that are suspicious of there local authorities(OMG…say this isn’t so ..will this spread???) and checking out their local hospitals.

Major hospitals in LA and NYC have no line ups as alleged…empty parking lots…bored staff and security guards.

Hawaii and Kentucky…same results.

I submitted in past post I drove by RGH last Sunday around Noon and the parking lot was nearly empty.

Think about it…IF you buy into the Fear Porn….you won’t leave your abode and your sense of reality is skewed via MSM.

Suggestion: Drive by your local hospital and report back.

#105 Zabuk on 04.01.20 at 3:23 pm

Most tenants are required to give first and last months rent to the landlord prior to moving in. Now if I had a good tenant who for whatever reason was having difficulties I might tell him (or her) that I will apply the last months rent to this month that is now due, and they can repay that deposit later. But at the very least, most landlords should have kept that last month’s rent on deposit – perhaps for a situation like this – and it should give some cushion. Perhaps I am naive thinking this might work – I dunno. People have to try and work with each other if possible. Scammers don’t count.

#106 Stoph on 04.01.20 at 3:42 pm

What happens to tenants if the property they are living in undergoes foreclosure? Is it any different than if the property is sold?

I take it that they would get to continue living there until the new owners take possession.

#107 Jager on 04.01.20 at 3:44 pm

A must read on Forbes about the U.S. housing market. Note the Twitter post about the highly leveraged Airbnb super-hosts (put your drink down first).

The enormous amount of leveraging across the entire economic/financial spectrum ensures a lengthy downturn.

The great wealth transfer begins…

#108 Mattl on 04.01.20 at 3:45 pm

#100 J on 04.01.20 at 3:13 pm
“The same dilemma is unfolding with commercial real estate. Small businesses are in awful shape, with zero programs in place for landlords to get mortgage deferral consideration, or free money from the feds.”

I own some commercial RE. I called my lenders (two large banks and a smaller credit union) and they were all more than willing to work with me if need be. Either interest only or full deferral for 3-6 months. So although there are not any official programs in place, with my anecdotal experience it seems that they want to help keep their clients afloat, albeit on a case-by-case basis.

——————————————————–

Of course they do. Banks aren’t interested in owning homes or restaurants. They have always been willing to negotiate terms to keep their clients in their properties. Only when the client has no hope of repayment will they close on the business.

It is why defaults historically are historically low – even at the peak of the GFC foreclosures didn’t break 3%. And that was with the crazy mortgage schemes they had in place.

Which is why the bellyaching about the mortgage deferral is so odd. The people complaining about it have clearly never had a relationship with a lender, or have had any exposure to business ownership.

#109 Jager on 04.01.20 at 3:45 pm

Link here:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2020/03/31/why-us-housing-bubble-20-is-about-to-burst/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

#110 Attrition on 04.01.20 at 3:51 pm

I was a landlord for years. Owned two condos. Dumped both in 2016. Can’t lie. Saw what was coming.

They were cash-flowing like no body’s business–international students. Cute little geese laying golden eggies.

Then I saw the light. It was an oncoming train that I estimated would arrive in a few years. It seemed pretty obvious.

International students numbers were dropping. I was the only idiot, it seemed, claiming all rental income. Costs were going up. Tenants were getting worse – druggies and working girls started showing up at showings.

In town, they started building apartments, making it harder to attract tenants to older condo units. The feds were starting to scrutinize every amateur landlord expense. I was getting sick of fixing sinks and toilets.

When I say I dumped them, I mean it. Sold both privately to an ‘investor’ about about $10K under assessed. Just wanted them gone.

When I went to sign the sales papers, I shook my head when my lawyer handed me the certified cheque, net expenses. “Five years, and that’s all I get,” I sighed.

“What do you mean? Most people selling these days are bringing me cheques. You’re lucky,” he said.

Shortly after I sold, the condo market slowed right down. Prices started coming down. Condo fees went up. Then, condo insurance debacle came along, and now the Great Viral Event of 2020.

In the ensuring years, not a single day has gone by where I haven’t been extremely glad to have sold.

#111 Confused on this Virus on 04.01.20 at 3:54 pm

Sorry Garth I don’t want to hijack this blog.
So many people are misleading information including governments.
So as far as I am aware China started lock Down around first week of January and then towards end of January most of the country. Now the country is mostly out of quarantine and slowing going back to work.
Co2 emissions are rising okay got that

So in total about Three months mainly because of the slow reaction of realizing what hit.

Now in Canada we are now being told this won’t be over till July and we have not even reach 10,000 cases.
Quebec was explained in the news yesterday that because their spring break was before the rest of Canada most Quebecers were in Florida and brought the disease home.
Okay got that.
So we have been self isolating for two weeks, but we had a million people fly home a week ago so we need to wait another 14 days. Okay got that.
Soooooo my long winded point basically in my little mind this Should be peak cases and declining in two weeks?
So why are governments saying till July.
We responded and shut down the economy immediately
Unlike China.
So please tell me why are we extrapolating this to start compounding out of control???
Why is Ford ordering 10,000 ventilators.
Am I missing something are we not being told the truth.
Thanks for your patience
Have a great day!

#112 Deplorable Dude on 04.01.20 at 3:57 pm

#102 Lost….but not leased…” Major hospitals in LA and NYC have no line ups as alleged…empty parking lots…bored staff and security guards.”

Beds/ventilators in use should be the yardstick. That’s why we’ve shut down the economy…to not overwhelm hospitals.

Government appears to be massively over pessimistic.

This is the official Gov model –

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

Doesn’t come close to actual real data in terms of beds used.

Check out any State for daily updated real data.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

I checked New York yesterday. Estimated bed use was over 3 times higher than actual. Same for a couple of other random States I checked.

“But just wait 2 more weeks”

#113 Bourbon on 04.01.20 at 3:59 pm

reference comment #86 – there is already a service that tracks tenant rental payment history, it’s called Rentcheck and it’s HQ in Toronto.

#114 Pierre on 04.01.20 at 4:04 pm

“But the little guys may get crushed. Those who bought condos to rent out and were already in negative cash show (an estimated third of all leased Toronto condos, for example – ditto in Vancouver) will see real and immediate losses.”

It’ called business risk, and provides a good lesson to the masses of speculators that being a landlord is (or should be) no different that being a small entrepreneur. For way too long, governments have protected landlords much more than tenants, and landlords have come to believe it us a sure-fire way to riches. This reset, as tragic as the consequences are in many other respects, at least will cause a major reset of expectations, which is a good thing IMHO. Building wealth is great, but as a society it is important that it requires taking risk and being productive, as opposed to being a speculator investing in government-enabled asset bubbles and feeling entitled to bevoming wealthy at no risk.

#115 JB on 04.01.20 at 4:07 pm

#57 paulo on 04.01.20 at 1:21 pm

Wow amazing how things can change quickly

Banks in the British isles RBS,STANDRED,and a number of others have gated mortgage approvals to 25 to 40 % of LTV
A Snap shot of whats Coming……
As for the big fiver here in canuckastan i would look carefully at there sub prime condo loan portfolios and be on the look out for junk etf offerings with these sub prime garbage loans condos are death in major markets in Canada likely going to 30 or 40 cents on the dollar of current ponzi scheme prices
…………………………………………………………………
CONDO HELL IS COMING, oh sorry that was supposed to be WINTER IS COMING!
Yes siree own a condo lose your shirt good luck petri dish owners in the sky.

#116 Lost...but not leased on 04.01.20 at 4:08 pm

What the future holds…?!?

Gov’t is simply putting bandaids on the Titanic….given nations are as rudderless as driftwood.

They keep kicking can down the road….errr “moving projections forward”.

Renters ability to pay will decrease….landlords will probably start Jingle Mail.

Small businesses won’t recover…we will be at mercy of large chains.

Watch for NWO “ORDER OUT OF CHAOS”

#117 BS on 04.01.20 at 4:10 pm

#63 Honest Realtor on 04.01.20 at 1:32 pm

This blog seems to be promoting the idea of not paying rent for April and onwards. Why this pic today and so much room given for people to brag how they won’t pay rent?

Have you ever heard the term what comes around goes around? Since the rental shortage a few years ago landlords everywhere have been treating tenants like crap. Simple greed. You would think if you were a property owner and your place went up in value and you had no vacancies you would be happy. Nope, landlords wanted more. Landlords everywhere did things like renovictions, obscenely increased rent through fixed leases and generally treated their tenants very poorly because they had the power to do it. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Enjoy!

Having said that my landord is very nice and I have paid my rent. I have rented for under market for years and he has never tried to get me out or illegally raise my rent like many greedy landlords may have. For him that is paying off now because he will get every penny of the rent due. If you are a landlord and not getting paid you now know why.

#118 Financial Distancing on 04.01.20 at 4:10 pm

That next great wave after social distancing: financial distancing ;-)

– Pierre

#119 MichelMD on 04.01.20 at 4:10 pm

“I wouldn’t panic. Investors should stay in the long term. Goldilocks is alive and well.”

– Larry Kudlow on CNBC December 11, 2007

“Coronavirus is well contained.”

– Current Presidential Economic Advisor Kudlow on February 25, 2020

#120 Franco on 04.01.20 at 4:12 pm

When will this end? I thought we had a lot of smart people and this is the best that they come up with?

#121 Dolce Vita on 04.01.20 at 4:14 pm

#44 IHCTD9

“…maybe this virus is the shake down some of these urban RE birdbrains needed”

#53 IHCTD9
“2.5 Millionths of 1% of the population of Ontario has died from CV-19.”

—————-

Abject lesson in how to fall upon one’s own sword.

#122 BS on 04.01.20 at 4:18 pm

#72 JSS on 04.01.20 at 1:52 pm
The REIT : XRE, and I guess BPY, are looking good now.

At least with XRE, you’re getting a monthly income.
It’s only $13 something a unit – cheaper than toilet paper

The only dividends that are safe right now are utilities and telcos. Retail REITS will cut for sure. They are not going to get paid rent and there will be massive bankruptcies going forward with their tenants in an area where there was ready weakness.

It’s always amusing to me how people take scenarios to the extreme. No, Loblaws, Canadian Tire, Shoppers, Sobeys and the major retailers who anchor retail malls will not go bankrupt, ‘massively.’ I’m sure looking forward to shopping again. Aren’t you? – Garth

#123 Pennok newsletter on 04.01.20 at 4:19 pm

A while back this blog quoted The Pennock newsletter.
I subscribed.
This newsletter is saying move to cash.
Am I missing something if your investment team says stay invested.

If you’re going to subscribe to a financial letter, learn the lingo. “Liquidity” does not mean “cash.” – Garth

#124 Ronaldo on 04.01.20 at 4:24 pm

#37 Lee

Right now Canada is at 108 deaths for about 9,000 cases. That would be 0.1% or so death rate.
———————————————————–
1.2%

#125 BS on 04.01.20 at 4:25 pm

86 Wait There on 04.01.20 at 2:27 pm

Well there is a simple solution here. Just like equifax, we can have a registry for those who stiffed the landlords.

Excellent idea. Equifax has a market cap of 13.8 billion. I am sure you can get the funds together and get this started.

#126 Deficits Matter on 04.01.20 at 4:30 pm

The various Government programs to bailout or help individuals and small business comes at a huge cost to taxpayers. Deficits are expected to be over 120 billion. Taxpayers wake up. We should reduce the deficits and stop the bleed. or Canada will become a Third World Country.

#127 Dee on 04.01.20 at 4:31 pm

Funny how it’s all “our” responsibility and problem now. Does a federal government not have responsibilities? Had we been testing like South Korea did, we wouldn’t be in this mess. I guess it’s hard to test when you have no medical supplies because you just gave 16 tonnes of them to china.

#128 Catalyst on 04.01.20 at 4:31 pm

Do you recommend small biz owners stop paying rent if their business is shut down (non-essential)?

I am concerned landlords will lock people out and not follow the law as there is no enforcement vehicle for tenants either.

#129 Toronto_CA on 04.01.20 at 4:31 pm

Why is ANYONE talking about the death rate with any kind of authority? We would need to know how many people have had the virus, which means antibody tests and mass testing.

China has 1.3 billion people and had 3,312 deaths.

If the death rate was anywhere close to 4% of everyone who caught the virus, there’s no way the virus would only have killed 3,312 people.

Death rate is probably much like the regular flu, 0.1% or so IN MY OPINION. We won’t know until we actually know how many people have had the virus and a lot more time has passed.

Stop saying anything about the death rate based on the very small amount of people who have actually been tested, and with no knowledge of asymptomatic people who have never been testing.

It makes you look like an idiot.

#130 Tony on 04.01.20 at 4:31 pm

The renters who don’t pay will all be put on the universal black list leaving it impossible for them to rent anything in the province of Ontario in the future. The landlords can also sue them in small claims court should they actually have money and choose not to pay rent.

#131 Ronaldo on 04.01.20 at 4:33 pm

#65 AGuyInVancouver on 04.01.20 at 1:36 pm
#38 conan on 04.01.20 at 12:38 pm
I think most of these Airbnb units are going to go on the market. Meaning, they become normal rental units.

Could be an opportunity for renters near the end of their lease, and they live in over priced digs.
_ _ _
Who will be able to afford to rent them?
—————————————————————-
Who will buy them and at what cost to make them viable to rent?

#132 Virus on 04.01.20 at 4:35 pm

US is expected to have over 100,000 deaths in a couple of weeks. That’s worse than World War 1 & 2, 9/11, Afghanistan War, Iraq War all combined.

Virus does not discriminate. Canada would also have over 100,000 deaths if we do not have an extended shutdown till Summer or even Fall. Economy will come back but the lost lives will never.

This is not a virus blog. I am lowering the hammer on posts like this. – Garth

#133 PAY THE RENT on 04.01.20 at 4:37 pm

BE AN ADDULT AND PAY THE RENT

#134 Kerry Hull on 04.01.20 at 4:37 pm

I was laid off 2 weeks ago and I don’t know how long it will take to get my job back. It could be 4 weeks to 4 months plus until they reopen.

In the meantime I will have to wait for EI probably another 2 to 4 weeks at the very least. The last 15 years working 6 days a week I always made it a real priority to save 18% to 20% of my gross every month.

I have diligently accumulated $170,000 for an emergency reserve and in savings accounts, cashable, redeemable GIC’s, GIC’s, OSB’s, RRSP’s, TFSA’s. I did this by cutting out many things including many vacations, eating out no more than 3 times a month, quitting smoking, buying a older used car and getting cheapest insurance possible, rent just a small pace not too big etc.

I helped my best friend and coworker last week by giving her a $10,000 loan for 1 year without interest. She has some savings but not that much. I can help her with this time with no problem and she is real glad I am responsible to be in a better financial situation than her.

Odds of getting the ten grand back? – Garth

#135 Lost...but not leased on 04.01.20 at 4:39 pm

Re: Evicting tenants and new owner occupying purchased home:

https://www.richmond-news.com/b-c-eviction-ban-won-t-apply-to-tenants-in-purchased-homes-given-prior-notice-1.24110617

So…if you sold a rented home prior to March 30 the tenant (given prior notice)can be evicted to allow for new owner to occupy.

However…after March 30…you, as new owner seeking to occupy it can NOT evict an existing tenant.

Wow…talk about a kick in the n*ts to RE market.

#136 Rico on 04.01.20 at 4:40 pm

“We’ve had the shock and awe. The institutions are buying again. Consumer sentiment may start to improve. The bounce is technical. The market is pricing in a “V’ shaped recovery. Everybody wants one.”

Woop, woop. Can we get a “W” shaped recovery??

#137 Opportunity on 04.01.20 at 4:40 pm

I think this is a good time to be considering a purchase in Sept/Oct with bids of 40-50% off of todays values. Foreclosures will result in banks wanting to dump everything they get back. I like reckless investors.

#138 Attrition on 04.01.20 at 4:41 pm

You know most of us are already likely immune, right?

From today’s NatPost:

The science data clash erupted in the U.K. after media reported on an Oxford University paper that suggested as many as half the population of the U.K. may have already been infected by COVID-19, a number that would drastically reduce the fatality rate. In the paper itself, eight authors acknowledge their work as preliminary but they say their assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic is that there was already considerable spread in the U.K. population and that, accordingly, the fatality rate will be much lower than realized.

The Oxford paper reaches the same conclusion as Canada’s science adviser. It calls for the “urgent development and assessment” of tests to determine the degree of immunity in the population.

#139 GP on 04.01.20 at 4:43 pm

Easy to make assumptions on why people can’t afford rent after missing a few pay cheques.

Do you actually know if your mechanic was spending more than he was making? Cost of operating a brick/mortar business in Vancouver is not what it used to be 20-30 years ago. I know of many small businesses that cannot afford to operate after two weeks of no incoming revenue.

It wasn’t long ago that I was working for a start-up and not making much money, which unfortunately had me living pay-to-pay after rent, bills, student loans, etc. Don’t assume people aren’t saving for “rainy days” because they don’t want to or have no “accountability”.

#140 SimplyPut7 on 04.01.20 at 4:50 pm

Those who bought properties solely to do short-term rentals are pooched – and at last count (before the pandemic) there were 22,000 of them in the GTA alone.

———–

It’s been the talk of the virtual office. If you are paying market rent and you have a month-to-month lease with your landlord. Once people are allowed out of the house again, do you move into a better building offering lower monthly housing costs?

Seems like a pretty easy answer to me…

Now, where are all of those landlords who were bragging about their tenants paying their mortgage?

#141 Linda on 04.01.20 at 4:51 pm

#28 ‘Penny’ – not surprised at lottery sales being suspended. Most people who buy tickets pay with cash & the lottery tickets themselves are paper, so the chances of germ transferral are actually quite good. Ditto for checking said tickets.

As for various financial relief programs, keep in mind that the money being doled out is all of it taxpayer dollars. Which will transform into taxpayer debt, since the funds collected were insufficient to cover expenses (hence, deficits) BEFORE the pandemic. Going to be one rare Canadian individual or business who has not received some sort of bail out before this virus runs its course. Though I have to say I have not as yet heard about what recourse retirees might have should their retirement income prove insufficient for expenses. Insofar as I am aware, neither EI or CERB applies. Age & experience is unfortunately not a guarantee of financial smarts. Some of those households teetering on the brink of financial insolvency are likely to consist of the plus 65 crowd.

#142 45north on 04.01.20 at 4:52 pm

In other words, non-payment of rent will have no consequences for a long, long time.

here’s one boomer’s experience as a landlord:

we rented out the upstairs to a young girl with a baby; my wife and I cleaned up a stroller and gave it to them. A few days later, the boyfriends moved in. According to the Ontario Landlord Tenant Act I couldn’t kick them out. One dark night, two of Toronto’s finest stood behind me while I told the boyfriends to leave. The next day the girl and her boyfriends moved out. Thank God for the Toronto police.

Some people wonder out loud why there isn’t more rental accommodation – it’s because the risks of owning property to rent out are not worth it – as we now see. The present crisis is going to reduce the number and quality of rental accommodation. For a long, long time.

#143 BS on 04.01.20 at 4:53 pm

120 BS on 04.01.20 at 4:18 pm
#72 JSS on 04.01.20 at 1:52 pm
The REIT : XRE, and I guess BPY, are looking good now.

At least with XRE, you’re getting a monthly income.
It’s only $13 something a unit – cheaper than toilet paper

The only dividends that are safe right now are utilities and telcos. Retail REITS will cut for sure. They are not going to get paid rent and there will be massive bankruptcies going forward with their tenants in an area where there was ready weakness.

It’s always amusing to me how people take scenarios to the extreme. No, Loblaws, Canadian Tire, Shoppers, Sobeys and the major retailers who anchor retail malls will not go bankrupt, ‘massively.’ I’m sure looking forward to shopping again. Aren’t you? – Garth

I prefer online where I can. It is easier.

Did you not just write this?

The same dilemma is unfolding with commercial real estate. Small businesses are in awful shape, with zero programs in place for landlords to get mortgage deferral consideration, or free money from the feds. Yup, T2 has offered to loan entrepreneurs up to $40,000, but that’s more debt and the process is complex. Lately even giant corps – like Canadian Tire and A&W – have been asking their landlords for six months of payment relief.

Add in the now empty Sears stores and The Bay not far off. Anchors typically get a low lease rate. Most of the money is made off the smaller stores which were already going bankrupt due to Amazon. All those people who where not ordering online prior to the pandemic now are. These habits will stick. There is a reason Amazon is up on the year where retail REITS like RioCan are down close to 50%.

#144 Tony on 04.01.20 at 4:58 pm

Re: #85 Trojan House on 04.01.20 at 2:24 pm

The bible did profess “3 crowns” in the period of Trump. The crown spikes of the Coronavirus as seen magnified show crown spikes.

Oh boy. – Garth

#145 Ronaldo on 04.01.20 at 4:59 pm

This virus thing is causing real problems now with barber shops shutting down. Barber called last week cancelling my hair appointment. Am thinking that soon I will have to decide between buying a dog license or having my wife cut my hair. Not sure what woulld be worse.

#146 Barb on 04.01.20 at 5:00 pm

#105 Zabuk on 04.01.20 at 3:23 pm

But at the very least, most landlords should have kept that last month’s rent on deposit – perhaps for a situation like this – and it should give some cushion.
———————————
It’s often used to repay the damage deposit of the tenant who is vacating. Lucky landlord whose last tenant left the place clean and in good repair. Happy to return it!

#147 Hawk on 04.01.20 at 5:02 pm

So happy I am an “ex-landlord” except for one last tenant who did pay.

Hey Buyers looking to “vulch” for living in a condo or house get ready. After this blows over many landlords, will sell properties at a discount, cut their losses and get out of this business forever. You can cash in on this exodus, by buying cheap.

#148 Dolce Vita on 04.01.20 at 5:04 pm

Truth today Garth, good…depressing, yes.

———————————–

Some VERY GOOD, hospital in Napoli has developed a RAPID TEST giving results in 10 minutes:

-positive or not
-presence of covid antibodies

Both significant, BUT the latter means that people can go back to work. Though certification needed…by Govs (Germany, Italy, UK that I could find pondering how to do that).

Also, clinical trials done in Italia on:

-hydroxychloroquine
-tocilizumab

both work, different ways but it means covid stopped dead in its tracks if you are infected, lung cells return to normal…fewer or no deaths, more cured.

How fast the Naples test and the 2 drugs will become mainstream is anyone’s guess…but an interim stop gap to covid and letting people resume the semblance of life as it was, is on the way until a vaccine found (Johnson & Johnson US starting trials now, expect very early 2021 results).

Who knows, maybe we will get that ECONOMIC REBOUND by the end of the year after all.

HOPE.

———————————–

MAYBE the Germans are not the only ones that can’t count covid, La Stampa article minutes ago saying covid deaths in Italia overstated by 30%, in some parts of the country double counted, triple counted but not a total number given.

Tried to Retweet the article fewer yet minutes ago and it no longer exists, Twitter did not pull it, La Stampa did (error 404).

Yet another Italian Reporter that will be writing articles from some TBD Siberian Gulag.

#149 BS on 04.01.20 at 5:04 pm

#133 Virus on 04.01.20 at 4:35 pm

US is expected to have over 100,000 deaths in a couple of weeks. That’s worse than World War 1 & 2, 9/11, Afghanistan War, Iraq War all combined.

To put it in perspective that is about 2 times a bad flu season and less than the flu and opioids combined. How much effort have they put into the opioid epidemic? And even flu they make you pay for a vaccine which show how much they put into stopping that.

#150 Drew on 04.01.20 at 5:05 pm

I payed rent today; I guess I’m a fool.

#86
That’s the why, but when people like me tell people like that “Save some money” and they just go buy another $80k truck, then beg the government now for money because they have none. When is it Ok to get smug and annoyed about it?

#135
Be careful, lending to friends is a complicated thing

#151 Hawk on 04.01.20 at 5:08 pm

A long time ago a russian realtor lady told me, laughing, how she used the mob to take care of dead beat tenants for her clients and the police were quietly paid off.

I think she’s still in business and I expect some of her client’s tenants are going to get the business.

#152 Wrk.dover on 04.01.20 at 5:08 pm

My keyboard doesn’t have the opposite of this symbol

/

So I call a for hyphen recovery, as it is the only option

_

#153 Oakville Sucks on 04.01.20 at 5:10 pm

Did you guys know Prince Harry and Markel are renters in Malibu?

#154 Figure it Out on 04.01.20 at 5:12 pm

“Well there is a simple solution here. Just like equifax, we can have a registry for those who stiffed the landlords.”

I like to do little thought experiments. Often, I use a mental shortcut — the law of conservation of stuff.

In this case, the ‘stuff’ is renter households, and rental units. Also total households, and total housing units.

Every landlord wants top quality tenants, of course, sure. And every tenant wants a nice unit. But half of all rental units are below average, as are half of all tenants. This virus certainly isn’t going to change that. If 37 tenants skip a few rent payments, maybe they’ll have trouble renting again. But if 300,000 do, landlords are going to have trouble finding pristine tenants — just as they do now. If they quit the landlord business and sell the unit, that unit ends up eventually housing an owner or renter family anyway — conservation of stuff again. Otherwise, half of them are going to have to rent to a below average tenant. Math.

I think the most realistic and honest landlords are 1) big residential REITs, who KNOW they’re going to get some bad tenants, but use rigorous screening, quick-as-possible evictions, solid capitalization and the law of large numbers to keep it manageable. And 2) Rooming house/SRO operators, who KNOW most of their tenants are bad, but keep costs low and occupancy high, and know what day the cheques come in.

Undercapitalized small-time landlords are merely a source of newspaper stories when they rent to tenants who turn out to be indoor goat farmers or what have you, can’t get them evicted for nine months, and didn’t have insurance to cover the damages. Or their AirBnB becomes a raging house party ending in a shooting.

Cheesecake Factory has just flat out told its landlords it won’t be paying rent. Canadian Tire and A&W are angling for reductions. That’s how it works in the corporate world. Just like the housing bust in the US, where corporate real estate owners with non-recourse financing just walked away from their properties, while media scolds blared at the little guy that he had to honour his promises.

#155 rknusa on 04.01.20 at 5:16 pm

I do not understand why it was necessary to call a moratorium on rental payments, irresponsible

why all this assistance so quick

we have unemployment insurance that will kick in for those who qualify, the only persons who might have need help are those in the gig economy but again why so early, everyone is living pay check to paycheck?

I could have seen assistance in a month or two but immediately before the pogey checks even arrive?

the system is then a house of cards and we are all screwed for all these people living beyond their means

with so many in the gig economy in the future the government needs to set up a separate insurance plan for those, they have not been paying into EI but will now get assistance, unfair to those who have paid in for decades, just encourages financial irresponsibility

but I guess that is the Canadian way

#156 S on 04.01.20 at 5:17 pm

And then there is that from Government of BC MInisterial Order No. M089:

“Landlord’s right to enter rental unit – Residential Tenancy Act
8 (1) Despite section 29 (1) (b) of the Residential Tenancy Act and sections 11 (2) (a) and (3) of
the Schedule to the Residential Tenancy Regulation, a landlord must not enter a rental unit
that is subject to a tenancy agreement even if the landlord gave the tenant written notice in
accordance with those sections that the landlord would be entering the rental unit.
(2) If a landlord gave written notice under section 29 (1) (b) of the Residential Tenancy Act
before the date of this order, and the date for entering the rental unit given in the notice
increase is after the date of this order, that notice is null and void.
(3) Despite any section of the Residential Tenancy Act, the Residential Tenancy Regulation or
any term of a tenancy agreement that limits entry by a landlord into a rental unit that is
subject to a tenancy agreement, a landlord may enter a rental unit that is subject to a tenancy
agreement if the following applies:
(a) an emergency in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic exists, and
(b) the entry is necessary to protect the health, safety or welfare of the landlord, a tenant,
an occupant, a guest or the public.”

So no rent, no evictions, no dispute resolution process and for landlords no right to enter their own property except in some very special circumstances. Mr. Turner mentioned here on several occasions Canada’s weak property rights. What property rights?
So glad I didn’t get talked into the landlord business.

#157 rknusa on 04.01.20 at 5:18 pm

after this is over just wait till you see how many people in arrears walk on their landlords

thanks Douggie

#158 saskatoon on 04.01.20 at 5:19 pm

#9 Fused

link?

#159 HH on 04.01.20 at 5:22 pm

@ #69 Mattl

Aren’t you confusing cause and effect somewhat?

Your position is that renting is fundamentally a worse choice that leads to worse outcomes compared to ownership, right?

You come to that conclusion based on the lousy circumstances of renters you see. (Fine, you can ignore the few renters like myself hanging around this blog, who are decent earners, diligent savers and investors. We are rare freaks of nature and exception to the rule – I’ll give you that.)

But then, won’t any society you look at always have about 20-30% of population in its lower socioeconomic layers that would never be able to afford ownership, no matter what they do?

So doesn’t the crazy high 2/3-ish home ownership rate we have in Canada, mean that everybody who possibly could afford to buy has already bought? i.e. Literally every single individual who thought he had two pennies to rub together and could convince a loan officer of that, has gone out, got a mortgage and bought a place?

Then, ignoring the few rare freaks in rented digs with substantial portfolios, pretty much everyone in that remaining non-owning 1/3-ish of population are folks who could never in any country, planet or lifetime afford ownership anyway. It’s not really a matter of choosing renting vs. ownership for them.

So their financial situation is not relevant as argument.

The whole debate on this blog has always focused on those 2/3 of population who can afford buying and who therefore actually MAKE A CHOICE between buying and renting. In this country (with exception of a few rare portfolio-fetish freaks on this blog) they have pretty much ALL chosen to buy.

The question then is: would some of those 2/3 who bought have been better off not buying, but renting and investing?

So the debate is over whether it’s always the best choice for everyone in those 2/3. Perhaps many of them would have been better off renting and investing the difference?

#160 Linda on 04.01.20 at 5:24 pm

#86 ‘Trojan’ – about the credit lifestyle choice issue. When I was trying to convince my Mom that something I wanted to do (which she though I shouldn’t) was the right choice, I’d try the ‘all my friends are doing it’ argument. Her reply? ‘If all your friends jumped off a bridge, would you do that too?’. Drove me nuts, but her point was making poor decisions isn’t justified because ‘everyone is doing it’. That includes finances. As for the minimum wage/contract work excuse for being short on cash, I recall the work coffee fund. Come payday, all the lowest paid employees in the office always had the funds ready. The highest paid manager types with engineering degrees rarely had any cash in their wallets & would have to be reminded the following week that they still hadn’t paid. People who get used to living on credit often forget to set aside funds for a rainy day. Just saying.

#161 DFO on 04.01.20 at 5:25 pm

To the idiots wondering how we can be in danger while using China’s numbers. Well the fact is the cases miraculously stabilized then dropped after a Communist senior official meeting with Xi. They’re lying, always have, always will.

https://twitter.com/evdefender/status/1228776070092115971?s=20

#162 Sail away on 04.01.20 at 5:26 pm

#135 Kerry Hull on 04.01.20 at 4:37 pm

I helped my best friend and coworker last week by giving her a $10,000 loan for 1 year without interest.

—————-

That’s a good way to lose $10,000 and a best friend. If you value the friendship, you should tell her it was a gift.

#163 Lost...but not leased on 04.01.20 at 5:30 pm

#149 Dolce Vita on 04.01.20 at 5:04 pm
Truth today Garth, good…depressing, yes.

===========

My understanding is you live in Italy ?

Do you believe there is a “pandemic”…or not ?

The way I see it…Italy and its response is being “groomed” to be the template for the REST of the Western Nations.

Ciao.

#164 Stone on 04.01.20 at 5:30 pm

Quite a few landlords in the comments section today. I can feel the sweat running down their backs, all the way into their butt crack. Very palpable. I guess the big reset for many of them is about to occur. KAPOW!!!

The strange thing is this. This blog repetitively shouted from the rooftop about liquidity, balance, and diversification. Also, over and over again, it’s been outlined here how being a landlord is a Very. Bad. Idea.

Were none of these idiots paying attention?

We’re all reading the same blog, right?

#165 Smoking Man on 04.01.20 at 5:32 pm

Can’t believe everyone is falling for the coronsvirus scam.

Flue kills way more people, how is this not relevant.

Clue 1

https://youtu.be/5pIMD1enwd4

#166 world traveller on 04.01.20 at 5:33 pm

Some talk about extending social distancing and shutting down non-essential business until July. Good luck with that! People are getting squirrely at less than 2 weeks, This cure is worse than the disease. They’d better figure out a cure or some more reasonable solutions like in Sweden or Singapore or there will be pitchforks in the streets.

#167 tiktok on 04.01.20 at 5:37 pm

Anything connected to debt is failing = almost everything

Stocks diving again, quelle surprise !

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.20 at 5:39 pm

@#145 St. Tony of the Obvious

“The bible did profess “3 crowns” in the period of Trump. The crown spikes of the Coronavirus as seen magnified show crown spikes.”

++++

I guess the name “Corona” which is Latin for “Crown” wasnt your first clue……..

Aiiiii Carumba

#169 akashic record on 04.01.20 at 5:41 pm

#162 DFO

People born and raised in Western countries have not been exposed to the level of absurdity that exists all over the world. They are naive and live in a false sense of safety.

#170 Reality is stark on 04.01.20 at 5:42 pm

You have to suck the cash from the only place you can get it. Allowing people to not pay rent is just an inadvertent way of taking wealth from property owners.
The government will take every drop of blood from you before they touch any public sector pension plan. They will make sure you are broke first.
Socialism is subjective, that is why people like it. No accountability. That is why you are criticized for being “unemotional” and “practical” if you live by the objective nature of capitalism.
They get to absolve themselves of all blame.
A typical socialist has come back from vacation with absolutely no intentions of self isolating. Rules are for you, not them.
On a more pertinent note it would be wise to gate off a perimeter of about a half mile all around our major hospitals. I’d hate to see a deluge at our emergency departments from people illegally getting through our borders expecting treatment on humanitarian grounds.
This is going to get much uglier before it gets better.

#171 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.20 at 5:42 pm

@#154 Oakville REALLY sux

“Did you guys know Prince Harry and Markel are renters in Malibu?”
+++

Yeah, they heard Smoking Man was moving out so they had the place repainted and schlepped right in.

#172 akashic record on 04.01.20 at 5:45 pm

#165 Stone on 04.01.20 at 5:30 pm

Quite a few landlords in the comments section today. I can feel the sweat running down their backs, all the way into their butt crack.

Watch your back, what comes may not stop with the landlords’.

#173 MF on 04.01.20 at 5:46 pm

#93 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 2:54 pm

That’s crazy, and pretty much exactly what kind of story I would expect having a rental property.

In other news, here I am. My landlord lives in *country unnamed* and she’s very nice. I’ve never missed a month’s rent. All liquid. Lots of savings and two jobs working 7 days a week.

I never bug my landlord from *country unnamed* for any maintenance, complaints, or even to say hi. Nothing.

Yet, every year my landlord from *country unnamed* cannot resist the desire to raise my rent. Every year I debate leaving and going somewhere else. If there is one more increase I’m out. So while bad tenants need to leave, good tenants need to be valued. This is what all these amateur landlords don’t get, and why there is such anger and resentment.

MF

#174 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.20 at 5:47 pm

@#162 DFO

“They’re lying, always have, always will.”

++++

Not when they promised our top security clearance expert they would pay him in US Dollars !!!!!
:)

https://globalnews.ca/news/6469618/cameron-ortis-charges-rcmp/

Kinda makes ya wonder what the point of all those security clearance checks are for?

Maybe they should be called Security Cheques?

#175 Sail away on 04.01.20 at 5:48 pm

No rent deferred will ever be paid. The renters have no tangible product to show for the deferred money and they will always be in similar desperate straits.

Water under the bridge.

#176 oh bouy on 04.01.20 at 5:48 pm

@#165 Stone on 04.01.20 at 5:30 pm
Quite a few landlords in the comments section today. I can feel the sweat running down their backs, all the way into their butt crack. Very palpable. I guess the big reset for many of them is about to occur. KAPOW!!!

The strange thing is this. This blog repetitively shouted from the rooftop about liquidity, balance, and diversification. Also, over and over again, it’s been outlined here how being a landlord is a Very. Bad. Idea.

Were none of these idiots paying attention?

We’re all reading the same blog, right?
_________________________________

who’s really the idiot?
while i would never want to be a landlord, i do have sympathy for some of them right now.
folks that are holding back their rent are just straight up low character dirtbags.
at least have a conversation with your landlord to work something out. goodluck renting another place in the future.

#177 MF on 04.01.20 at 5:51 pm

#164 Lost…but not leased on 04.01.20 at 5:30 pm

Maybe..just maybe Italy is being used an example of what NOT to do?

Did you consider that in your “analysis”?

MF

#178 crowdedelevatorcoughz on 04.01.20 at 5:54 pm

Glad to be…COUGH!…with you all in the elevator…COUGH! as we ride up together 60 floors to the office…COUGH!…for a little meeting!

Lemme tell you about my trip to..COUGH! …Italy last month. It was…COUGH!..really wonderful, except everybody looked sick. But way better than Wuhan where I was….a, a, AAA CHOOOOOO!…the week before. I like the Chinese food in Mandarin here at home much better! How about…a,A, AAA CHooo…you?

(Happy April Fools!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

#179 Terry on 04.01.20 at 5:55 pm

I’ll say it again. Shutting down our economies and locking down everybody was a HUGE mistake. This will not work. Vaccination, which is very unlikely, or herd immunization is the only way to manage this. Sadly, many people will die. Avoidable was the social and economic breakdown we are seeing unfolding before us all. Going forward to this winter this virus will undoubtedly re-emerge with all it’s variants after it slows down this summer. These viruses never go away just like the the seasonal flu will never go away. We are all going to have to get used to the increased risk of catching this virus as we get older. Medical technologies and drugs created an imbalance in nature. Now nature is counter balancing.

#180 alf on 04.01.20 at 5:58 pm

#80 Eaglebay on 04.01.20 at 2:12 pm
#13 Keep Your Rent on 04.01.20 at 11:48 am

“Tenants keep your rent.

Landlords keep your distance.”

You’re a crook. Not facing up to your obligations is theft. You’re stealing from your landlord and as a parasite you want the government to bail you out.
—–

I really have no dog in this fight one way or the other but, don’t be surprised when a contract that is not honorable is not honored.

#181 cramar on 04.01.20 at 6:00 pm

We should all be thankful we are living in Canada. The latest CONVID-19 stats have 3x as deaths in Michigan than in all of Canada.

#182 YouKnowWho on 04.01.20 at 6:00 pm

EVERYONE IS SO DISGUSTING!

Have you been out there? This behaviour will not just go away. Social norms have certainly been upended.

I though this would cause a baby boom. Not when wifes see husbands as disgusting when they clear their throats.

#183 joblo on 04.01.20 at 6:02 pm

Anyone able to get thru to TD Direct Investing?

“Due to high volume of calls we cannot complete your call/Try back later”

“We are having technical difficulties try calling back later”

“Due to high volume of calls we cannot complete your call/Try back later”

“We are having technical difficulties try calling back later”

“Due to high volume of calls we cannot complete your call/Try back later”

Merry Go Round :(

#184 Lost...but not leased on 04.01.20 at 6:03 pm

#165 Stone on 04.01.20 at 5:30 pm
Quite a few landlords in the comments section today. I can feel the sweat running down their backs, all the way into their butt crack. Very palpable. I guess the big reset for many of them is about to occur. KAPOW!!!

=======

So….what’s the alternative ?

If memory serves me correctly…..the Feds bailed out of this version of social housing decades ago via such initiatives as MURBS….Co-ops etc.

Who fills the void? (hint: usually the private sector).
Gov’t has clearly deferred “housing” to this sector.

So..what does the future hold ??

Is Fearless Leaders Turdeau and Morneau plan to effectively confiscate any/all private sector housing via “softer expropriation ” (aka bankruptcy) as this alleged “pandemic” ramps up ???

You know…massive foreclosures…banks bailouts…and tenants are now under the thumb of massive bureaucracy ???

Enjoy!!!

#185 JSS on 04.01.20 at 6:04 pm

“Lately even giant corps – like Canadian Tire and A&W – have been asking their landlords for six months of payment relief.”

A&W has temporarily stopped paying monthly distributions as well

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/a-amp-w-revenue-royalties-income-fund-announces-temporary-suspension-of-monthly-distributions-due-to-the-impact-of-covid-19-874415461.html

#186 The Spectre on 04.01.20 at 6:09 pm

Garth, thanks for everything, we ❤ you.

Peace and keep safe folks.

#187 Anon on 04.01.20 at 6:10 pm

Using publicly available stats from the Johns Hopkins dashboard…

From 1 to 24 March, the number of confirmed cases grew 23% each day in Canada and 32% each day in the USA.

Since 24 March, the daily increase is 14% in Canada and 16% in the USA.

I don’t know if this is because of changes in testing methodology or truly reflects a successful social distancing campaign. If it is a genuine slowing, then I would stress that it is still growing exponentially but at a slower rate.

Good for hospitals: more time to release existing patients ahead of any peak. But the economic interruption of social distancing won’t end yet should governments wish to maintain this “50% flattened” curve.

#188 Ustabe on 04.01.20 at 6:11 pm

China has 1.3 billion people and had 3,312 deaths.

And 21 million cell phone deactivation’s in this period. What is up with that?

Google up China and cremation urns. Poke around.

~~~~~~~~~~
A lot of folks calling themselves landlords are like the lady who puts a band-aid on a neighbour kid’s knee and then calls herself a nurse. Landlords don’t have one or two condos, that is a hobbyist.

Landlords rent bedrooms and two rent for more than one, three for more than two. Etc. As our business matured we had in excess of 30 bedrooms rented out plus two commercial units.

Sure we had the normal issues but my “landlord” stories differ wildly from most of those posted here. Maybe the problem doesn’t reside solely on the renter’s shoulders?

#189 Dolce Vita on 04.01.20 at 6:11 pm

#164 Lost…but not leased

THAT is a VERY GOOD question. I have been asking myself that for the past 23 days of lockdown Martial Law here in Italia (Pordenone, FVG) well, since early January actually. Just pig sick of it all.

The only evidence I have been able to offer to myself is the Italian MSM more than well balanced and report accurately (e.g., Commie “Il Manifesto” to we hate the EU and all Lefty’s “Il Giornale” with neutral RAI and everything else in between). They really go after the Italian authorities (Ministry of Health, Civil Protection Agency) with very blunt questions about the pandemic (every day, 1800 hr CET report to the nation).

If voracity is a measure, then yes, it’s a pandemic. Queen of Scoops “La Stampa” intimated they are over counting the deaths by 30%, but that got pulled 30 minutes ago.

So I assume, yes it’s a pandemic and of course WHO says it is too, so we have to put faith in them though the Americans and today Japan’s Deputy PM say WHO are covering up for the Chinese (much worse than they reported, 1,000s of, truck loads of funerary urns in Wuhan do not square with Gov China estimates).

I have always said, someone was bound to notice the caskets because of Covid, in their case, the urns.

To me, it’s more basic. I can’t get vaccinated for it like the flu. And I could die from it. Pandemic or not, scares the heck out of me. And here in Italia it is a lot worse than influenza in mortality rate, a lot worse (I check that Italian site every so often).

The deaths didn’t start to “rack up” here until covid got a foothold in Italia. I have been following since early Jan. reports out of China. I could see the WRITING ON THE WALL THEN, cancelled my planned trips immediately by mid-January.

The luxury that Canada and the USA had is we tried to warn everyone (esp. the EU) and were dismissed. Hopefully, not as bad in Canada as here.

Maybe that “mea culpa” guilt is driving N. American MSM into near hysteria and want it to be a pandemic.

We’ll see but to be honest, both US and Canada have healthcare systems ranked in the #30s thanks to Gov cuts or Private healthcare and your peak estimated to be this month and into May, so it does not look good in terms of being overwhelmed…look what it did to #2 Italia. Also, ON and AB Docs articles in last 2 days say they are scared shitless.

And I thought Italians got excited, we’re amateurs compared to N. Americans (but at least we eat and dress better).

————————

-Little help to you I am sure, but my thinking thus far.

Besides, Bolsonaro of Brazil about to put the “pandemic or not” question to the test. He is treating it as the flu and not following Italian protocols as is everyone else in the EU and N. America.

Watch BRAZIL and therein will be the answer.

#190 Steven Rowlandson on 04.01.20 at 6:14 pm

“The tide’s sweeping out. So many are naked.”

I am not surprised. Thanks to the powers that be I might not be able to keep my laptop charged up as they have closed a gazebo that has power in a park in Barrie. This Covid 19 thing is as big a farce as global warming. The one thing is that global warming isn’t being treated as a medical martial law situation. I have still not met anyone with the disease… As far as the street people are concerned this whole affair is a tempest in a tea pot and these are people who encounter disease first hand. Most if not all of them hardly have so much as a cold. They are getting miffed over the loss of public amenities that make their life tolerable. Libraries, drop in centers,community centers,public washrooms and dining rooms at restaurants. Recharging sites for recharging electronics is important.

#191 Figure it Out on 04.01.20 at 6:15 pm

“This is not a virus blog”

Every investing blog is, for the foreseeable future, a virus blog. Talking about investing at this juncture without talking about you-know-what is like talking mortgages without mentioning interest rates.

I guess you could make it exclusively a dog blog for a few months or so…

#192 mark on 04.01.20 at 6:17 pm

The online landlord forums are quite the hoot. They’re admonishing their tenants for not having anything socked away, when a lot of them readily admit they’ve got nothing for an emergency either.

Imagine complaining you’re going to the wall because your tenants are bums, when your whole enterprise was based on nothing more than the hope those bums would keep coming through for you.

#193 LuckySOB on 04.01.20 at 6:18 pm

So is the time to buy an investment property as a long term rental fast approaching, assuming one has the line of credit or the cash on hand already?

#194 Dolce Vita on 04.01.20 at 6:22 pm

#164 Lost…but not leased

PS:

Watch Sweden as well. They are implementing very few Italian protocols and say their economy cannot afford it.

So PANDEMIC OR NOT?

Watch BRAZIL and SWEDEN (sort of).

#195 YouKnowWho on 04.01.20 at 6:23 pm

You guys think we’ll kill off the regular flu and cold with this as well, as a bonus?

#196 Asterix1 on 04.01.20 at 6:24 pm

V recovery wont happen. It’s going to look like this.

Q2 Q3 Q4

L_______J

#197 Snoopy on 04.01.20 at 6:26 pm

Some random thoughts:

1. A while ago I posted that once in a rare while interest rates begin to rise no because the economy is healthy and growing but because borrowers demand greater returns for fear of default. We are there I think, and my view (as worthless as anyone else’s) is that you are going to see over the course of the next months and years increased mortgage and general interest rates to the public.

2. Regarding whether the PM can pass a law that says “anyone who can’t afford to complete their real estate deal is allowed to back out of it risk free,” I don’t think that is correct. A house purchase is a contract. That is not federal jurisdiction. I suppose each of the provinces could pass their own laws, but the PM is not able I don’t believe to swoop in and order such a thing.

3. I’ve been watching this blog for a long time and even though I comment infrequently, I think I have a pretty good sense of it. There are a lot of people invested on outcomes and bragging rights and most of it has a really healthy spirit attached to it. Some of the newcomers, or the really entrenched people, hopefully will be able to continue their messaging in a way that doesn’t delight in personal hardships that are surely coming to a lot of people, maybe some of us even if we don’t personally expect it to happen.

4. It is unbelievable that GT has kept this site going every single day for so long. I personally think he is quite wrong about what is about to happen, and if he is (whether about the virus, the market, or anything) I hope everyone keeps their comments respectful and no one does anything to cause him to shut this blog down.

5. If things recover nicely in a relative way, and we come together and the market rallies and we all go back to normal, then that will be great. If things fall apart, this country in particular feels particularly vulnerable to the rise of politics of the extreme – on both sides of the fence. I hope whatever happens we can find a way to speak to each other politically and put people into control of our lives who continue to value the essential things that we value today.

OK. Sorry for the ramblings. Carry on.

#198 Cbo on 04.01.20 at 6:28 pm

I had all of my rental properties mortgage payments deferred for 2 months in the event of a ‘relationship breakdown.’

None are CMHC insured.

Through BMO. Branch manger is a reasonable guy.

#199 Burnaby Boy on 04.01.20 at 6:29 pm

I too paid my rent today but I know its all interconnected; repairs, property tax and so on.

#200 Abc123 on 04.01.20 at 6:36 pm

House prices in Toronto have risen so far this year and have surpassed 2017 highs. The 905 is picking up steam , especially Richmond hill , which is near pricing at its peak

The delusion among posters here that GTA real estate prices will decline is just that a delusion. Sellers won’t sell if they don’t get their price and to add don’t want to move anyway during this terrible time in the world.

Interest rate declines as well as all the free money being handed out one way or another by the government coupled with mortgage deferrals will do nothing but reinforce the notion that real estate purchases are “ safe” and that the government will not let the housing market” fail”

It’s unfortunate that financial market investors do not have these eco generous advantages for sure, but rather than compare and complain , just join the the RE investor class .

Look bottom line, if you want a property in the GTA buy one now. You may even get a deal and a coupe of years from now it will certainly be a bargain in retrospect.

What brokerage are you with? Curious. – Garth

#201 Craig on 04.01.20 at 6:37 pm

Garth do you think that the US and Canadian banks will follow the European/ UK banks and suspend dividends ?

No. – Garth

#202 OK, Doomer on 04.01.20 at 6:37 pm

Was just watching Vassy Kapelos beat up Morneau. She hit him with the 3-6 week time frame to getting a system in place where employers can start APPLYING for help. Morneau obfuscated and tried to tell her that the cheques will be out “shortly” after that.

She didn’t believe it and Morneau’s body language screamed “PLEASE DON”T ASK ME THAT AGAIN. I DON”T BELIEVE IT EITHER!!!”

But think about the accounting logistics: you need to apply monthly and prove a 30% monthly drop in sales ffor the same month in 2019. This means that you’re tacking on a minimum 30-45 days, as virtually no one can prep their books on the last day of the month given the penalties for false CRA filings. Quarterly for most, maybe, which would be 90 days.

The feds are asking everyone to totally rework their accounting systems to access the funds while threatening strong penalties if they’re wrong.

And you’re asking CRA to administer it, a government department that operates at a glacial pace and suffers no fools.

Logistically this will be a massive goat show CF.

Do what Trump is doing; everone gets a cheque and it’s 100% taxable. If you’re in trouble it’s manna from heaven. If you’re employed it’s pin money. Either way the economy wins.

#203 Abc123 on 04.01.20 at 6:38 pm

Meant external or exogenous not eco generous in previous post .

#204 Blair on 04.01.20 at 6:38 pm

Respectfully Garth, I don’t believe that the virus and investing can be altogether separated. I look forward to your blog every day.

Fine. But let’s skip the body count projections and the Apocalypse. – Garth

#205 Raging Ranter on 04.01.20 at 6:42 pm

@#104 Lost but not leased, visitors have been banned from hospitals. All elective surgeries and treatments cancelled. And the hypocondriacs who jam up public emergency rooms in more normal times (“the regulars” as those working in E wards call them) are staying away because they’re afraid of the virus. Do you think maybe that accounts for the empty parking lots? While the MSM has its drawbacks, repeating info from QAnon vloggers isn’t going to improve your accuracy. Why not talk to someone who works in a hospital – get your information from an actual source? Instead of seeking confirmation from fellow conspiracy theorists on the Internet.

#206 Paul on 04.01.20 at 6:43 pm

#158 rknusa on 04.01.20 at 5:18 pm
after this is over just wait till you see how many people in arrears walk on their landlords

thanks Douggie
————————————————————————————————
I had rental properties for years ,l never looked at it as taking advantage of anyone I provided a clean safe place for people to live and they paid the rent win win.There were lots of times needed to cut some slack. But never would I rent to anyone with out a credit check ,job letter and a current landlord recommendation. Hey if they lost a job or unforeseen event yes help out for sure.

#207 Farm Wife on 04.01.20 at 6:45 pm

#5 YouKnowWho on 04.01.20 at 11:12 am

” What are we fighting for here? Another breath? Another latte? Another new smartphone? New model of car?”

Things worth fighting for in my book are good health to enjoy looking forward to spring, first calves, first geese, first crows, first robins and the first arrival of the sixth generation in our family.Gardens and crops to be put in and being grateful to still have the strength to do both. When the snow goes I will be throwing the saddle on my old horse and taking a ride to the back bush to search for the first crocus. We are both at the age that this might be the last time for either one of us to enjoy this tradition but I have hope for the next year. I am sure we Canadians will endure and survive what the future brings and come out the other side better humans for it.

#208 Dolce Vita on 04.01.20 at 6:51 pm

BTW to all, Tweeted to Justin, 1 hour ago or so, about the:

-10 min. Naples Hospital Covid test also detecting antibodies (today).

–hydroxychloroquine & tocilizumab Italian clinical trials that those drugs successfully treat a covid infection and return lungs back to normal (in the last 2 days).

Told him “I’d get on top of that if I were you.”

-It will probably get lost in the Twitter haystack of tweets sent to him every day.

Hope not, for Canada’s and everyone else’s sake.

—————————————

Will sure help a long ways to an economic recovery in Q4.

#209 Questions, Musings and Ramblings on 04.01.20 at 6:53 pm

#74 Mattl
40 percent of homeowners have no mortgage at all. And the 1.7 in mortgage debt is backed by 6t in equity

Does the 6t equity include the equity owned by the 40 percent homeowners with no mortgages?

#210 Flop... on 04.01.20 at 6:54 pm

#186 Raging Ranter on 04.01.20 at 6:42 pm
@#104 Lost but not leased, visitors have been banned from hospitals. All elective surgeries and treatments cancelled. And the hypocondriacs who jam up public emergency rooms in more normal times (“the regulars” as those working in E wards call them) are staying away because they’re afraid of the virus. Do you think maybe that accounts for the empty parking lots? While the MSM has its drawbacks, repeating info from QAnon vloggers isn’t going to improve your accuracy. Why not talk to someone who works in a hospital – get your information from an actual source? Instead of seeking confirmation from fellow conspiracy theorists on the Internet.

////////////////

The only thing I can add to this is to mention the site I drive by again.

Near 33rd and Cambie at the back of a hospital in a car park there is a corona virus assessment site.

Normally see a few people going in and some activity under the white wedding style tents.

Don’t know how many sites there are like this in Greater Vancouver, but I guess the plan is to keep possible positive cases away from the hospital.

Sign says, No photography.

Not busy today, police looked bored…

M45BC

#211 Nonplused on 04.01.20 at 7:03 pm

I guess what we have learned today is that there is no such thing as a “non-essential business”. Every job is essential to someone. And then there is the trickle down effect.

If everyone had followed my grandmother’s advice to have 2 months worth of living expenses on hand perhaps this wouldn’t have been so rough. Mind you she lived at a time where EI wasn’t a thing.

I think even people with 2 months living expenses on hand might still have decided not to pay the rent. What if this goes 4 months? How about 6? But at least if it did end in 2 months they could pay the back rent when they get their job back. If they do get their job back. A 2 month payment default isn’t so bad to survive if the back rent gets paid at the end of it but there are many people out there who just won’t be able to pay the back rent at any point in the foreseeable future.

My daughter paid her rent today but the lease is up at the end of the month. The unit she is renting is highly dependent on university students. With the start date for classes to resume undetermined I don’t think the landlord is going to have any luck re-leasing it for some time, so the effect is the same even if the contract has been honored to the letter. There will be a great many units across the land in the same circumstance. No school, no students. No students, no rent.

This situation is already causing panic across the US as students are not signing up for fall classes. Why would you commit to $40,000 extra in student loans when there is no guarantee you’ll get anything for the money? So we can add higher education to the long list of enterprises currently going bankrupt.

School boards are already laying off band, drama, phys-ed and art teachers. How far behind can instruction positions at universities and trade schools? And who could have foreseen the day when a teacher got laid off because there were no students?

And let’s not forget the auto-workers. The lipstick they put on it was that the had to close the factories because of “social distancing”. But the reality of the matter is that the showrooms are as empty of potential buyers as an open house in Calgary’s Mount Royal district. So that shyster car salesman is getting the same treatment as the realtors we so love to hate on this blog. So is that mechanic who always overcharges.

We are only a few weeks into something that could go on for months and already the fallout has been epic.

#212 HH on 04.01.20 at 7:05 pm

@ #146 Ronaldo

“This virus thing is causing real problems now with barber shops shutting down.”

Just buzz ’em off. A shiny bald cranium is much easier to keep clean and disinfected, which is sure useful these days. Not to mention cheap.

Ladies may feel differently, of course. I can see how this can turn into a hardship for women.

For guys though… meh… nothing to complain about.

#213 Wrk.dover on 04.01.20 at 7:06 pm

#195 Abc123 on 04.01.20 at 6:36 pm

Look bottom line, if you want a property in the GTA buy one now. You may even get a deal and a coupe of years from now it will certainly be a bargain in retrospect.

What brokerage are you with? Curious. – Garth

———————————————–

Trump International?

#214 Lost...but not leased on 04.01.20 at 7:07 pm

#171 Dolce Vita on 04.01.20 at 6:22 pm
#164 Lost…but not leased

PS:

Watch Sweden as well. They are implementing very few Italian protocols and say their economy cannot afford it.

So PANDEMIC OR NOT?

Watch BRAZIL and SWEDEN (sort of).

====================================

Italy has intrigued me from DAY 1 of this alleged “pandemic”

I watched news feeds that had one Italian politician threatening FLAMETHROWERS to non compliant citizens…another had a mayor walking down nearly deserted beach scolding a couple of people playing ping pong.

Then…see a video that was allegedly of a crowded hospital room(beds/staff/patients) in USA..that was later exposed to be from ITALY.

Regardless…the mounting evidence is ..for whatever reason..ITALIAN “COVID 19″stats have been exposed as BOGUS..there are a number of extenuating factors that can logically explain the deaths (ie age/pre-existing conditions/poor air quality/use of toxic drugs etc etc).

Overwhelming evidence is…more succinctly…if a person has been “diagnosed” with “COVID 19″…and they had :

—bad heart..
—terminal cancer and
— gun shot wound..

…IF they die…its attributed to COVID 19….
(BTW: don’t trust me…research it !!!!)

My concern is if…..as I alluded to earlier , WE, the General Public do NOT do our own objective research and , instead..simply “trust” the Politicians and the Professionals…WE will get exactly what WE deserve..(an admittedly loaded comment).

#215 Barb on 04.01.20 at 7:09 pm

TD predicts $180B deficit.

#216 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.20 at 7:13 pm

@ Abc123
“The delusion among posters here that GTA real estate prices will decline is just that a delusion.

++++
Its been 2 weeks of s!!tstorms
Lets all meet back here in 6 months shall we?

P.S. Love your name.
A realtor that can finally count…

#217 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 7:14 pm

This virus in a insidious worm of the mind.

How many people are carefully using masks and barely touching anything and worry about the veggie dept at the grocery store.

But then deep in your mind you are thinking about that time you attended a leafs game and used the bathroom toughs, or that time you packed into the front row of a concert or bumped your way through Disneyland or rode cattle class at the back of a 787 for 20 hrs.

Think back further of the disgusting things you did in your misspent youth.

Lots of time to think in quarantine.

#218 Kick out the jams on 04.01.20 at 7:15 pm

The fact that Garth keeps pumping out blog updates – and even provides his weekly call to the public – on a daily basis astounds me. I don’t think he has missed a day in years.

Garth, you truly are very generous human and appreciate all the advice over the years.

#219 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.20 at 7:15 pm

@Abc123
“Meant external or exogenous not eco generous in previous post .”
+++

Doesnt matter what you meant or said.
You’re biased and will say anything to get a commission.

#220 Stone on 04.01.20 at 7:16 pm

#177 oh bouy on 04.01.20 at 5:48 pm
@#165 Stone on 04.01.20 at 5:30 pm
Quite a few landlords in the comments section today. I can feel the sweat running down their backs, all the way into their butt crack. Very palpable. I guess the big reset for many of them is about to occur. KAPOW!!!

The strange thing is this. This blog repetitively shouted from the rooftop about liquidity, balance, and diversification. Also, over and over again, it’s been outlined here how being a landlord is a Very. Bad. Idea.

Were none of these idiots paying attention?

We’re all reading the same blog, right?
_________________________________

who’s really the idiot?
while i would never want to be a landlord, i do have sympathy for some of them right now.
folks that are holding back their rent are just straight up low character dirtbags.
at least have a conversation with your landlord to work something out. goodluck renting another place in the future.

———

My rent is paid. Never said I was a part of the “don’t pay your rent” movement. Also, they are idiots. When you see the shit hitting the fan and still jump in with both feet and make no attempt to reverse course, you’re an idiot.

Stupidity needs to be punished. It will make them stronger in the end. You hope. And if not, oh well.

#221 Abc123 on 04.01.20 at 7:17 pm

#201 abc123 And Garth response .

I am not a realtor and I think you can do better than that.

I am real estate investor however a “ brick kicker “ if you wish.

Look just saying it’s been pretty damn good all these years on my “ side of the playground” and I believe very strongly it will continue to be.

Admonish me if you wish.

Yes. It’s ‘brick licker’. – Garth

#222 Questions, Musings and Ramblings on 04.01.20 at 7:17 pm

#87 Wait There
Well there is a simple solution here. Just like equifax, we can have a registry for those who stiffed the landlords

We should also have a registry of all the landlords – on CRA website will do

#223 Sooooo on 04.01.20 at 7:17 pm

So first time on this blog, read over most of the comments, Yukon Elvis #23 nails it.

#224 Mattl on 04.01.20 at 7:18 pm

HH #160 :

I get where you are going and don’t disagree.

My position has always been that owning a reasonable affordable SFH – and I realize that is not possible in all markets – is the right move for most middle/upper middle class Canadians. The idea being that people are financially illiterate, and they will not save the difference.

So home ownership, even if it is a stretch, or the buyer pays too much, will pay off for large majority of people over the long run. It is forced savings for idiots.

Trying to time the RE market is a mistake, and there are a number of posters here hoping for RE to implode not understanding the downstream effects of a market crash, and not realizing they missed previous bottoms and will miss the next one.

So while the comment section has been calling people fools for buying in 2010, 2012, 2014, etc, I suspect these folks will have better outcomes over the long term then same level incomes that rent.

#225 rknusa on 04.01.20 at 7:22 pm

#166 Smoking Man on 04.01.20 at 5:32 pm

Can’t believe everyone is falling for the coronsvirus scam.

Flue kills way more people, how is this not relevant.

Clue 1

https://youtu.be/5pIMD1enwd4

yes it is a world wide coordinated conspiracy to take away Smoking Man’s right to spout garbage and vomit

go back to your cave

#226 Last Gasp on 04.01.20 at 7:24 pm

The checks for all Canada Government relief programs will be run through the reliable federal Phoenix Pay system.

It worked really well last time and you should all be fine. Well we think you will be fine.

Anyway, checks will be conveyed through Canada Post which is also the most reliable way to get you your federal lucre into your desperate and probably by now now sweaty palms. We have recently partnered with the Zimbabwe National Bank to handle the extra burden of processing your relief checks and then routed through our last remaining verification staff in our miltary base in Afganistan to verify your claim and a final inspection on each application. We need to make sure you … our valued tax slave stays on the plantation, and after all are for
real. You can rest easy fellow citizen … we have your back.

#227 Attrition on 04.01.20 at 7:27 pm

#218 Abc123 on 04.01.20 at 7:17 pm

Admonish me if you wish.

Yes. It’s ‘brick licker’. – Garth

Solid Gold.

There are full time, well paid comedians who can’t deliver zingers with such effortless regularity and punch.

Priceless.

#228 Flop... on 04.01.20 at 7:28 pm

I put this lockdown tracker up last night.

It looks as though it has been extensively updated since the first time I showed it.

They haven’t rounded us all up and put us all in pens yet.

It looks as though there are still some free-range humans roaming in the jungles of Papua New Guinea…

M45BC

GLOBAL COVID-19 LOCKDOWN TRACKER.

Visualise the current state of COVID-19 lockdowns around the globe as it unfolds.

https://auravision.ai/covid19-lockdown-tracker/

#229 Steerage Clowns on 04.01.20 at 7:34 pm

#166 Smoking Man on 04.01.20 at 5:32 pm

Can’t believe everyone is falling for the coronsvirus scam.

Flue kills way more people, how is this not relevant.

Clue 1

https://youtu.be/5pIMD1enwd4
….

Yer getting old and slow, forgot to say it was all staged by Soros….

#230 Kilt on 04.01.20 at 7:37 pm

“Sensible people will do sensible things, like keeping their social distance and washing their hands”.

Come on Garth. 50 million people voted for Trump. The fact that the big ticket items at the local Walmart have been Toilet Paper, Guns and Ammo should tell you about how sensible people are.

Kilt.

#231 People Panic on 04.01.20 at 7:38 pm

One thing that this crisis is proving beyond a shadow of a doubt is how epically challenged the bottom 50% is.

It all started with toilet paper. Now considered an essential but somehow we got along without it for 200,000 years. Well, all the way back to the beginning. Adam and Eve did not have toilet paper. Much of the world still does not to this day.

Also on display is how many people left their pantries empty even when they were getting 0.0% on their bank accounts. Suddenly, now is the time to stock up on dried beans. And they had the money before or they wouldn’t have it now. Beans are cheap.

But the situation is deteriorating. Health workers in the UK are being abused on their way to and from work for being “disease spreaders”. The health ministry has advised them all not to wear their uniforms or other identifying items like security badges when commuting. This is outstanding. This is like attacking the firefighters for trying to save your house.

But the list doesn’t end there, oh no. “Isolation parties”, people putting step ladders up to get over barricades to parks, people stealing medical equipment they don’t know how to use, people licking toilet seats and intentionally contaminating stocks (what there are) in stores, and some idiot that decided to spray bleach in a Walmart destroying $10,000 worth of goods. I wish I could say that was the end of it but no, it is only a small sample.

There are signs of hope though, but mixed with signs of despair. The president of MyPillow recently said he was converting all applicable equipment to making masks. Good. Response? He’s a Christian! So, bad. I don’t care if he is a Satanist if he starts pumping out masks.

Side note Chic-Fil-A came under a large attack because they were giving money to the Salvation Army, which last I checked was still a registered charity. They had to stop. This is the craziness of the 50%. You should decide on where you buy your chicken sandwich on where you get the best product for the money, not on whether the owners share your ideology.

For example I have some very nice oak chairs made by hand by hutterites or some other weird to me religion, in their shop probably by hand. Should I care what they personally believe? Nope. They are damn nice chairs. You can’t get something like that at Ikea. And PS Chic-Fil-A makes a good sandwich. I don’t care what they do with the money once I get my tasty lunch.

These times will be a boon to future psychologists. The human experience has always been weird, I don’t think it has changed, but never before has the internet recorded it all in such detail for future study.

#232 Nonplused on 04.01.20 at 7:48 pm

#226 rknusa

It is clear to me you didn’t do well at math or microbiology.

The common flu has a 100% penetration rate. So you can divide the number of deaths by the total population. Easy math.

Covid has a nearly non-existent penetration rate, but it is growing exponentially, doubling in days. Thus comparing it to the flu is like comparing an electric drone to a NASA rocket. Sure, the rocket just took off and the drone is higher, but that won’t last long. Maybe to late April if nothing is done.

#233 45north on 04.01.20 at 7:49 pm

Figure it Out:

the law of conservation of stuff.

like the law of conservation of matter – it can neither be created or destroyed

I find it curious, laughable really, the view that society is ordered by the same laws that govern physics. It’s not true. It’s laziness – it’s the idea you can govern society without putting too much effort into it.

For that matter, you would think you’d learn physics or something. But that’s too much effort.

#234 Dolce Vita on 04.01.20 at 7:53 pm

#215 Lost…but not leased

WAIT A MINUTE…

Difference between Italia and others on confirming indeed a COVID death is this:

They do a POST-MORTEM.

So, there is confirmation of a COVID infection.

For example, Germany does no post-mortem, relying on observed symptoms.

Also, the main killer is INTERSTITIAL PNEUMONIA. Shows up immediately in an X-Ray. Still, even with that they do a post-mortem here in Italia to be sure.

So, you are incorrect in your assertions about public knowledge. There is no sleight of hand here in Italia. Why I keep telling people on this Blog to stop believing N. American MSM Left biased media. You have no balance save nutter Fox.

Here someone I have been following for awhile, a UK Doctor before COVID hit UK reading a Tweet from an Italian colleague in hardest hit Bergamo:

https://youtu.be/3A6s-6LLWZI?t=408

So, still think something else other than COVID?

#235 45north on 04.01.20 at 7:53 pm

Burnaby Boy: I too paid my rent today but I know its all interconnected; repairs, property tax and so on.

that’s the lesson “it’s all interconnected”.

one example is COVID19 – People get on airplanes and travel. The disease is spread from China to the world. We’re interconnected.

another example – property owners and tenants. Welfare of one group impacts the welfare of the other. They’re interconnected.

#236 Calgary retiree on 04.01.20 at 7:55 pm

Meanwhile, the Con darling Kenney went full commie in Alberta.

He now allows renters to skip – and no mention of landlord compensation. Lots of Calgary home owners are renting out their house or condo to avoid foreclosure.

Disaster.

#237 Raging Ranter on 04.01.20 at 7:59 pm

Abc123, Keynes once said that a speculator takes risks of which he is aware, while an investor takes risks of which he is unaware. You are, without a doubt, a real estate investor, just like you say. Do come back in 6 months and tell us how you’re doing.

#238 Oakville Rocks! on 04.01.20 at 8:01 pm

Garth, thanks again for sharing the weekly Turner Investments Client Call. Very helpful.

#239 YouKnowWho on 04.01.20 at 8:01 pm

#208 Farm Wife

You named a lot of free stuff! Best things in life really are free!

My hope is 10%, maybe 20% will learn this it will be something. Unfortunately it also will make 50% anti-social and disgusted with others. Not sure if net result is a gain.

#240 Pandemic on 04.01.20 at 8:08 pm

People, please stop comparing a virus that has only really been with us for 3 months with with the flu, which has been with us forever and our natural defenses have had lots of time to adapt to, does over a year. You are comparing swords to nuclear bombs. There isn’t an analogy. Covid is not the flu. We have natural herd immunity to the flu. We have nothing except science against Covid.

#241 Flop... on 04.01.20 at 8:08 pm

It’s been pretty laughable the last few days to see people mention force majeure, without having a clue as to what it means.

Justin Trudeau cannot force me to shovel manure…

M45BC

#242 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.20 at 8:15 pm

and while we squawk about the flu…..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-violence/as-gangs-ravage-mexico-town-mayor-seeks-answers-to-husbands-killing-idUSKBN21J6E4

34,000 murdered last year in Mexico….34,000

#243 Figmund Sreud on 04.01.20 at 8:19 pm

Mr.Virus
________________________

Ah, of course. Meet Mr. Virus – portrait and all!

Mr. Virus, please proceed.

I am the fire, and you are the fuel.

Let me introduce myself.

You can call me COVID.

Let’s face it, Sars-Cov-2 is just a mouthful.

Just because I resemble the genome of my notorious sister, SARS, your species gave me this awkward title.

So just call me COVID.

Or contagious COVID.

I noticed that you didn’t bother to name four of my other relatives: NL63, 229E, OC43, HKU1.

And I know why. They just make sniffles, watery eyes and runny noses. Well, mostly. Except for babies, and the very old.

But every child has coughed one of my numbered brethren, and so your kind, in some respects, already knows my family in a very casual and dismissive way.

Now, forgive my manners.

Perhaps you have been disrupted by news of my global travels, and my exponential growth.

Or perhaps I have brought anxiety, sickness or death to your home.

Let me explain. This is nothing personal.

Believe me. […]

I’m the Virus You Named COVID-19. Glad to Meet You
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/03/31/Virus-Behind-COVID-19-Explained/

… smiling but outright chilling tiny pricklin’, …

F.S. – Calgary, AB

#244 China fatality number on 04.01.20 at 8:23 pm

The cremation urns does appear to outnumber the reported number of deaths. That’s because the urns contain also other types of normal deaths for the families who could not claim them because of the quarantine

#245 the Jaguar on 04.01.20 at 8:25 pm

Be it resolved that the Jaguar will no longer refer to the current period of confinement as ‘the crisis’, but now only as ‘the debacle’, as the previous term really only elevates a sense of anxiety. While ‘the debacle’ presents an opportunity to test previous boastful declarations of ones ability to live a spiritually frugal and simple life, I have to admit it’s all becoming a bit tiresome. The daily mat exercises, culinary expertise, and personal inventiveness only go so far. I feel like the Von Trapp Family climbing the Austrian Alps singing ‘Climb Every Mountain’, hoping to glimpse the Covid 19 version of Switzerland. Things may improve now that the bike tires are pumped up, but only if the damn weather would start cooperating.
The collection of pirated baseball games and new reads ordered from Amazon will provide some relief, but importantly I would like to thank our host Garth Turner for continuing to bring us this blog and connection each day. A beacon of light, sanity and insanity, and especially hope, thoughtful prose and food for thought. It’s grounding. Thank you to Dorothy who allows it to continue. Thank you Jesus for also keeping the liquor stores open during ‘the debacle’.

#246 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.01.20 at 8:26 pm

54 IHCTD9 on 04.01.20 at 1:03 pm
#30 YouKnowWho on 04.01.20 at 12:13 pm
New Ontario numbers.

2392, 689 resolved, 37 deaths. In Ontario 1.1 cases per 10,000 people – a 10% increase from yesterday.
——

Or…

2.5 Millionths of 1% of the population of Ontario has died from CV-19.

.0000025%, that’s about double the chances of a Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction level asteroid hit reoccurring in 2020.

———–

Wait! There’s a chance of a Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction level asteroid hit reoccurring in 2020????

Quick destroy the economy and make everyone stay in their houses!!! IT’S THE END! PREPARE!!

#247 Remembrancer on 04.01.20 at 8:30 pm

#227 Last Gasp on 04.01.20 at 7:24 pm

it’s cheques…

#248 Hamsta on 04.01.20 at 8:39 pm

This virus is like a big crash on a NASCAR racetrack. Time for a yellow flag and everyone marks time until the mess is cleaned up.

The folks caught, the corporations caught etc. are exactly totally wicked and stupid. This was an exogenous event like an asteroid hit. The work stoppage for millions was imposed as an emergency measure.

Think about this. Say you can’t make the rent for a few months. OK, the landlord wants to evict you. If he does, he has to find a replacement renter. Where is this new cash rich renter going to come from if nobody is working because of government order?

A lot of the usual analyses of market crashes don’t apply in this situation.

#249 Doug t on 04.01.20 at 8:50 pm

#219 kick out the jams

LOVE MC5

#250 fishman on 04.01.20 at 8:54 pm

Rebalance 5G portfolio time. Garden,girl, guns. gold & God. Going overweight on the veggies & salad stuff. Noticing shortages of some seeds. Hopeless rebalancing girl portfolio. Corona world you dance with the one you brung or your dancing solo. I’m liquidating my position on guns & ammo. Lil potato & his helper, french fry husband,are trustworthy. Their inclusive love & strength through diversity will convert the hungry unemployed barbarians. With these two leaders we can rely on a long, peaceful & prosperous life. Aprils Fools, just kidding. Started liquidating gold. No, really. If this isn’t time,when is? I imagined that it would be a cash/goldmaple transactional environment. Its the exact opposite. I take the maple out of the safety box. Sell it to the dealer. Take the check to the CU, deposit in my Co. checking account. Nobody takes cash, gotta be plastic. Then I square up with internet banking. Refresh & Repeat to cover my cash burn. I’ve got a serious LOC but too old to run any debt.
As far as the Big Guy in the sky? I have made some promises. Not making excuses ,but under stressful predicaments. Also a tendency to overbalance on the girl,gold portfolio. We’re going to have a talk about my situation. Hear he’s quite forgiving. Have good intentions.

#251 Phylis on 04.01.20 at 9:00 pm

Just a few clicks on the phoenix pay system and we’ll all be ok.

#252 rknusa on 04.01.20 at 9:11 pm

#226 rknusa

It is clear to me you didn’t do well at math or microbiology.

The common flu has a 100% penetration rate. So you can divide the number of deaths by the total population. Easy math.

Covid has a nearly non-existent penetration rate, but it is growing exponentially, doubling in days. Thus comparing it to the flu is like comparing an electric drone to a NASA rocket. Sure, the rocket just took off and the drone is higher, but that won’t last long. Maybe to late April if nothing is done.

so nothing to be alarmed about right

it is too bad there is not a law for people like you to be put in jail for spreading misinformation

yes I guess you are smarter than every other health expert in world that is warning us about this

I would close by saying best wishes but that would be a lie

#253 Lee on 04.01.20 at 9:15 pm

Just saw an interview with Bill Gates. He thinks we need to stay shut down for at least ten more weeks.

#254 the Jaguar on 04.01.20 at 9:15 pm

#202 Craig on 04.01.20 at 6:37 pm
Garth do you think that the US and Canadian banks will follow the European/ UK banks and suspend dividends ?

No. – Garth’

ANCIENT WARRIORS! No way will they suspend dividends!

Last post, I have been on a ‘roll’.

#255 IHCTD9 on 04.01.20 at 9:17 pm

#122 Dolce Vita on 04.01.20 at 4:14 pm
#44 IHCTD9

“…maybe this virus is the shake down some of these urban RE birdbrains needed”

#53 IHCTD9
“2.5 Millionths of 1% of the population of Ontario has died from CV-19.”

—————-

Abject lesson in how to fall upon one’s own sword.

—-

Lemme guess, you thought I meant said shakedown had something to do with the cv-19 body count – amirite?

C’mon Dolcey, obviously these big city Rentiers are going to get punished thanks to the lunacy surrounding CV-19, not the .0000025% who have died. All their tenants are running around with their hair on fire, losing their jobs, and refusing to pay their rent. No way to evict. Can’t cut services. Can’t drag them out on their @sses. For months…

This is a shakedown for land lords if there ever was one.

Since you happen to be one of those dudes who is having a spaz attack over a near zero death rate, these two posts should not have been so confusing for ya.

#256 IHCTD9 on 04.01.20 at 9:25 pm

#236 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.01.20 at 8:26 pm
54 IHCTD9 on 04.01.20 at 1:03 pm
#30 YouKnowWho on 04.01.20 at 12:13 pm
New Ontario numbers.

2392, 689 resolved, 37 deaths. In Ontario 1.1 cases per 10,000 people – a 10% increase from yesterday.
——

Or…

2.5 Millionths of 1% of the population of Ontario has died from CV-19.

.0000025%, that’s about double the chances of a Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction level asteroid hit reoccurring in 2020.

———–

Wait! There’s a chance of a Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction level asteroid hit reoccurring in 2020????

Quick destroy the economy and make everyone stay in their houses!!! IT’S THE END! PREPARE!!
——

Not so fast! There is only about HALF the chance for total planetary annihilation later this year, as there is of you dying of Covid.

So maybe let 50% of the economy survive (we’ll destroy the rest next year).

#257 Fat Tony Sez on 04.01.20 at 9:25 pm

Hmmm, I’ve long disliked REITS. Mostly because I have never seen an apartment building where the rent covered the debt the building could attract. I looked hard at one point. I have loads of friends who made lots of money investing in property. They must be a lot smarter than me.

However, I have learned that having a stash of cash and an unsecured line of credit gets one through most things.

Save some money, be frugal, live within your means. There is no way on earth to predict the future, that past rarely informs the future. Bad stuff happens because it just does. Plan for that, not for the good.

Anyone can make through good times, few make it well through bad times.

#258 HH on 04.01.20 at 9:29 pm

@ Mattl

“So home ownership, even if it is a stretch, or the buyer pays too much, will pay off for large majority of people over the long run. It is forced savings for idiots.”

Point taken. Easy to lose sight of that when hanging out with mostly like-minded people on investment forums. But then, yes, stories like recent one quoted on this blog about a surgeon earning $800K/year who ended up broke certainly drive that point home.

If even high-performing high-earners can be like that with their money, maybe “protection from themselves” is the biggest benefit of RE for most folks.

#259 akashic record on 04.01.20 at 9:33 pm

#166 Smoking Man on 04.01.20 at 5:32 pm

Can’t believe everyone is falling for the coronsvirus scam.

Flue kills way more people, how is this not relevant.

Clue 1

https://youtu.be/5pIMD1enwd4

If you actually take the time to watch the video it makes you wonder.

There is an option, of course, that all these videos, shot at various hospitals, were taken before the pandemic.

That would be a counter-conspiracy theory though.

#260 Lost...but not leased on 04.01.20 at 9:40 pm

#235 Dolce Vita on 04.01.20 at 7:53 pm
#215 Lost…but not leased

WAIT A MINUTE…

Difference between Italia and others on confirming indeed a COVID death is this:

They do a POST-MORTEM.

So, there is confirmation of a COVID infection.

For example, Germany does no post-mortem, relying on observed symptoms.

Also, the main killer is INTERSTITIAL PNEUMONIA. Shows up immediately in an X-Ray. Still, even with that they do a post-mortem here in Italia to be sure.

So, you are incorrect in your assertions about public knowledge. There is no sleight of hand here in Italia.

============

Sigh>>>>>>>>>>>

If your views are representative and reflective of the average Italian….may one of the world’s most classic civilizations R.I.P.

#261 Ottawa_vet on 04.01.20 at 9:44 pm

The military decided that this Annual Posting Season (APS) where several hundred veterans sell their home, and buy another in a different location is going to be delayed and/or canceled. There are going to be a lot of realtors hurting big time. I bet some make half their income from the APS. It’s going to be a shocking year for some.

#262 not 1st on 04.01.20 at 9:54 pm

COVID-19: Nearly half of Edmonton businesses expect to permanently close, three per cent already have: survey

https://edmontonjournal.com/business/local-business/covid-19-chamber-survey-march-31/

Good job politicians.

#263 Abc123 on 04.01.20 at 9:54 pm

238 Raging Ranter on 04.01.20 at 7:59 pm
Abc123, Keynes once said that a speculator takes risks of which he is aware, while an investor takes risks of which he is unaware. You are, without a doubt, a real estate investor, just like you say. Do come back in 6 months and tell us how you’re doing.
—————

Yes I will do as you wish with confidence .

And by the way , the last 20 years have been absolutely spectacular and since total net equity in RE dwarfs liability , I could care less with a 50 % haircut in prices ( which will not happen .. more like gain).

Net cash flow overwhelms costs. Happy to give a “ break” to my reliable tenants if necessary.. all good for me .

Happy to leave it all up to you to find the next Apple , Netflix or shopify. Never worked for me . I’ll stick to what I know and where the “tailwinds” exist.

Garth I knew it was licker but typing on an iPhone is what it is . Take the layup and enjoy

#264 ImGonnaBeSick on 04.01.20 at 10:09 pm

233 Nonplused on 04.01.20 at 7:48 pm
#226 rknusa

It is clear to me you didn’t do well at math or microbiology.

The common flu has a 100% penetration rate. So you can divide the number of deaths by the total population. Easy math.

Covid has a nearly non-existent penetration rate, but it is growing exponentially, doubling in days. Thus comparing it to the flu is like comparing an electric drone to a NASA rocket. Sure, the rocket just took off and the drone is higher, but that won’t last long. Maybe to late April if nothing is done.

————

“On January 25, 2020, Canada confirms its first case of COVID-19 related to travel in Wuhan, China.”

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html#a1

I’m not one to call you out nonplused, because I like you comments.. but we had 60+ confirmed covid-19 cases in Canada as early as January. I’m not sure I would call this a rocket… And yes, this can absolutely be compared (and should be) to a seasonal flu.

Remember, 30+ million Americans had the flu this year, 40,000 Canadians. In Canada on average, 12,000 (66/day) are hospitalized for the flu, and 20/day don’t ever come out…

In hospitals they have entire floors dedicated to flu victims and overflow. At my wife’s hospital they’ve had to send overflow to the states and take over other rooms (like endoscopy rooms, etc) to handle sheer numbers…

#265 J Bird on 04.01.20 at 10:10 pm

Garth, What advice are you offering to clients with $1,000,000 CAD that is free and ready to put to work in this environment?

#266 Treasure Island CEO - 402.88 Troy Ounces of Gold within Bicycle Distance on 04.01.20 at 10:15 pm

After today’s information it doesn’t matter what you have. RE, Cash, Gold, whatever. All will disappear.

Growing food from your bunker will enable one to survive.

Looks like a year long process now.

I received an email from PWL saying now is not a bad time to have GICs for the next 8 months.

New England Journal of Medicine: 90% of the globe will get Covid-19.

#267 Lost...but not leased on 04.01.20 at 10:17 pm

OK Fear Porn fans….lets try again…

Evidence of “MADE IN CANADA ” pork barreling

CUI BONO: Many of us via GF schooling know inherently

…….”Something is not right” MEETS “Never let a crisis go to waste”

https://www.bitchute.com/video/hdBt-kaIsOs/

OK…for those with low attention span FFWD to
14:20 mark of video to at least 20:00 minute mark(albeit its all very informative).

Played for suckers… oui???

No Charge….

#268 John in Mtl on 04.01.20 at 10:39 pm

@ 19 SunShowers on 04.01.20 at 12:00 pm
What did people think was going to happen? Something has to give.

The people thought the government nanny would solve all their reckless
financial decisions. It is each person’s responsibility to fend for
himself and make contingency plans for unforeseen events that happens
in life.
——————————————————————

@ #104 Lost…but not leased on 04.01.20 at 3:19 pm
@#166 Smoking Man on 04.01.20 at 5:32 pm

You don’t get it, do you? They are awaiting the tsunami. It may come, or it may not
but they are ready for it, as they should be in this situation.

#269 GA on 04.01.20 at 10:41 pm

Cresford Group Bankrupt…3 large condo tower in Toronto

https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/services/insolvency-assignments/33-yorkville.html

#270 cramar on 04.01.20 at 10:56 pm

Heard on the news that now 50% of all Canadians are on the verge of bankruptcy. Don’t know what this stat is based on or how factual.

#271 David Debto on 04.01.20 at 11:17 pm

In the past, they had a way of dealing with people who were irresponsible with their personal finances and who were held accountable…debtor’s prison.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debtors%27_prison

#272 conan on 04.01.20 at 11:20 pm

ummmm it’s real ok…… No idea why so many people who post here do not believe Corona is serious.

https://www.facebook.com/OccupyDemocrats/videos/235760004452774/

#273 Spock on 04.01.20 at 11:41 pm

Usually the money never finds its way back. I learned this the hard way during the 2000 crash and lots of folks (friends) were unemployed.

Since then what I have done is if the person has a line of credit – it is cheaper (and best for everyone involved) for me to pay the interest on their LOC for one year (or whatever duration it is for emergency to get over) than be liable for the entire debt.

When the debt is in their name – when times become better the debt principal starts getting paid as soon as the interest payments from me ceased.

#135 Kerry Hull on 04.01.20 at 4:37 pm

I helped my best friend and coworker last week by giving her a $10,000 loan for 1 year without interest. She has some savings but not that much. I can help her with this time with no problem and she is real glad I am responsible to be in a better financial situation than her.

Odds of getting the ten grand back? – Garth

#274 slick on 04.01.20 at 11:47 pm

I see that Ontario teachers, and the Gov’t are willing to get back to the negotiating table. Teachers are being paid full salaries since the schools were closed.
While teachers are crowing about parents finally seeing how their kids behave during school hours, parents are seeing teachers true value, etc. The rest of us are seeing the benefits of online classes and learning.
If everyone else can work from home, why not teachers that are still on the payroll.
If classes average 25 kids, why not put a teacher one on one for 1/2 hour per kid twice a week. Parents can oversee the brief lessons, and have kids do the homework. Teachers put in 5 hours per day of lessons, (plus their precious ‘prep time’) that is 10 kids per day.
5 days per week is 50 mini lessons per week.

We are getting shafted by these people liberalizing our kids. There is no reson they shouldn’t be working from home as they are getting paid.

#275 MK on 04.01.20 at 11:51 pm

Three Downtown Toronto Cresford Condo Developments Go into Receivership:
https://torontostoreys.com/cresford-condos-receivership/

#276 Wild Bill on 04.01.20 at 11:54 pm

Saw a clip on a US news station – not CNN – about the possibillity of the US gov’t buying apt buildings from all the owners so that ppl don’t go bankrupt and hurt the financial companies.

Wonder if something like that could come here?

#277 Jimers on 04.01.20 at 11:55 pm

What happens when renters start abandoning their places cause the neighbor is infected with one of the viruses?

Sail away – Yah I looked into those rocket stoves, best backyard version I saw for frying your squirrel or boiling water was made out of about 20 house bricks stacked just right.

#278 westcoast on 04.01.20 at 11:57 pm

My neighbor in Langley just bought a 3 million dollar place in late January while their current place is still listed for 2.45 million. Another neighbor just bought a 1.5 million “flipper” that he’s currently renovating – he borrowed to buy it. That may sting…

Don’t know there total financial situation, they do drive Mercedes so maybe they can afford both places?

#279 crazyfox on 04.02.20 at 12:02 am

The markets basically have 2 factors to weigh in moving forward. First, is the damage done to economies while nations idle down from covid-19 and the second is the virus itself. The economic damage has been tremendous. Governments in North America are looking to add 10% more intergovernmental debt to GDP over this, tapping their wallets for future shocks. Public indebtedness is about to take a big hit. So is the consumer and businesses large and small. Some sectors are a disaster, like energy and travel but real estate is the sector to really watch.

Canada’s real estate sector was in a bubble before covid-19 hit. We can argue about the levels of risk but its been medium high risk for years. Ascending valuations have been a cash cow for financials and the entire construction industry but this, I fear, will reverse. This site has been hammering away at the levels of risk caused by over indebtedness for more than a decade precisely because of unforeseen events like this. At some point, it was going to be bond market disruption like the GFC or Europe or something in the future, maybe war or overpopulation/environmental damage or inflation or international economic slowdowns or war but we knew we were vulnerable. It’s funny how success blinds us to the risks, but we let it ride anyway. Everyone else was doing it. Trump won’t let anything happen, etc..

Well, the chickens have come home to roost. Canada’s real estate and debt bubble has imploded. We haven’t seen the numbers yet, but they will be ugly. Commodities are in a ditch for the foreseeable future, demand will not be pretty, incomes will fall, unemployment will be high, cash will be king and times will be tight. This is what we have to look forward to now is some brutal numbers going forward.

The mistakes concerning international response have been many. The Chinese response to COVID-19 up to Jan 23rd was slow. The moment the outbreak happened, every plane in/out of China should have been grounded. Any cases traced from other nations should have been grounded. The world should have predicted the supply side shocks relating to this virus. The methods in China, once proven to work, should have been copied across the world with epidemics regardless of infringements on peoples freedoms. Like, what do we have now? Does this look like freedom to you?

The messaging from national governments world wide has been one of minimizing and downplaying risk. “it’s not coming here.” “It will end shortly.” The death rate could be .1%, it’s just another flu.” Remember those? All lies engineered to boost the markets but in effect relaxed reaction. The consequence was governments slow to react but not just just governments, their people.

The levels of misinformation is mind numbing. The WHO and U.S. CDC are still telling the world masks don’t work. Now the message is changing to “they might work but due to shortage, our front liners need them first”. Which is fine, but why mislead the public when such lies slow government/public response?

https://in.news.yahoo.com/covid19-airborne-sars-cov-2-061112424.html

The link above is saying this virus is airborne. Early on, the WHO along with the CDC have insisted that COVID-19 is droplet and contact transmission only, contrary to what South Korea has said for more than a month now or studies like this one out of Nebraska today.

What South Korea said is that small droplets can evaporate, becoming aerosols under the right conditions (warm and dry with draft). What this means is masks/respirators work and not just for droplets. PPE is a major component to getting nations back to work as is testing and tracing, temp scans and GPS tracking cel apps. Like, who knew.

#280 westcoast on 04.02.20 at 12:03 am

What really pisses me off is that I work and sacrifice to save and I hear jackasses at work laughing that they’ll get free money for rent.

So stupid, they should have to pay it all back. This system is so broken that savers get punished and spenders get rewarded twice – from the initial purchase and then from free handouts from the gov’t.

#281 Notagreaterfool on 04.02.20 at 12:07 am

201: Credit tightening and job losses are game changer. House prices cannot escape. How do you think Bank will approach an applicant for a mortgage if he works in a non essential field? How will they treat income rental homes (non primary residents)? New ball game.

202: TD has said no employee layoffs and all investment dollar decisions have gone into a suspension mode. Time will tell if dividend will be safeguarded. It has been sacrificed by some European banks.

Garth: you said “They cannot collect. They cannot evict. They can’t turn off the water or the heat. They cannot appear before the landlord-tenant board, because it’s shut. They cannot get mortgage relief (unles CMHC-insured – rare). They can only eat the losse” ….they could sell the condo

#282 Harley Tempke on 04.02.20 at 12:27 am

Another day another Liberal delay. Finance Minister Morneau is slip sliding his info-spew like a grease on a griddle. The promised money Trudeau announced is just getting pushed back and pushed back, from immediate to next week to unknown, to a few weeks, to next month. The Liberals are toying with desperate people’s lives. Why?

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-trudeaus-attempt-to-help-may-kill-many-small-businesses

#283 Don Guillermo on 04.02.20 at 12:30 am

#254 Lee on 04.01.20 at 9:15 pm
Just saw an interview with Bill Gates. He thinks we need to stay shut down for at least ten more weeks.

***************************************
Dr B Gates?

#284 Nonplused on 04.02.20 at 12:43 am

Oh this is too far down the rabbit hole for anyone to see, but:

N.N Taleb on insurance: “If you have to look for insurance, you can’t get it. You have to have it before.” (somewhat paraphrased) I guess if the toilet paper crisis taught us anything it is that. You either have toilet paper before the crazy starts or you won’t get it.

Word is there really is a shortage of physical gold this time. Go figure. Why wouldn’t there be if you can’t buy toilet paper? All the mines are closing. But yet gasoline is as cheap as I remember seeing it in 20 years. Despite refineries closing.

This really is different this time and anyone who says they know what comes next is a psychic. A Tarot card reader. A prophet. Nobody knows. Will life return to normal? I imagine one day. But from an economic perspective there is something to be said that this Covid thing has had the affect of an limited nuclear war. Much more impact than Hiroshima. Tinfoil caps on: What if it was meant as a full out attack, the winner being those most prepared in advance? Even though they cannot go unscathed? Remember, in many games the winner is the team that suffers the least injuries. Winning a nuclear war is not about losing a city, it is about losing less cities.

Things will be different in 2021. The big change is going to be credit and debt. Assuming we survive until then. Credit and debt has been nuked. There will be no more of it.

#285 not 1st on 04.02.20 at 12:45 am

….and we have our first province teetering on insolvency.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/newfoundland-labrador-oil-pandemic-covid-coronavirus-dwight-ball-1.5516620

#286 cultural elitist on 04.02.20 at 12:52 am

@ #203 OK, Doomer
… think about the accounting logistics: you need to apply monthly and prove a 30% monthly drop in sales for the same month in 2019. This means that you’re tacking on a minimum 30-45 days, as virtually no one can prep their books on the last day of the month given the penalties for false CRA filings. …
… Logistically this will be a massive goat show …

Do what Trump is doing; everyone gets a cheque and it’s 100% taxable. If you’re in trouble it’s manna from heaven. If you’re employed it’s pin money. Either way the economy wins.

I fully agree. There is no benefit to complex hoop-jumping under these conditions. Means-testing requires an expensive administrative apparatus, generates stress, and leaves holes in the safety-net. Any solution is going to be somehow “unfair”.

The simplest solution is the best. Just send everyone a cheque (taxable). The money will get spent into the economy, and everybody benefits.

#287 Repent on 04.02.20 at 1:07 am

Repent, repent, the end is nigh. Repent, repent, we’re all going to die.

#288 NFN_NLN on 04.02.20 at 1:13 am

Garth, I must admit this blog is a genuine service to Canadians. After reading the comments here I no longer fear dying from COVID-19, in fact I welcome it with open arms.

I think Trudeau has the right idea. Go inside and forget everything and everyone until this blows over on it’s own.

#289 Smartalox on 04.02.20 at 1:23 am

I’m not normally a person to complain about globalization and the off-shoring of manufacturing to countries where labour is a few pennies per part cheaper, but with every health service in the world fighting to buy N95 masks from the same few (overseas) suppliers – in some cases having shipments of ‘paid for’ masks being intercepted and sold for higher amounts to other jurisdictions while in transport – makes me wonder if we shouldn’t establish requirements for the domesticity of ‘strategically important’ companies and industries.

#290 Joe Quinn Phoenix on 04.02.20 at 1:51 am

#166 Smoking Nam

The sanest, most reasonable comment on this entire page (next to mine of course).

#291 Dolce Vita on 04.02.20 at 3:22 am

This morning:

1.) Hydroxychloroquine widespread deployment in Italia (we do not want to sentence our citizens to death when a treatment that works is available, Tweeted to Gov Canada & CTV Nat’l News).

https://twitter.com/prodreamer1/status/1245451968148996096

2. )10 min COVID test that also detects antibodies now being deployed in Italia (here a nurse watching the test, elated she is negative):

https://video.repubblica.it/edizione/napoli/coronavirus-l-infermiera-di-napoli-si-emoziona-dopo-il-test-negativo-felice-per-la-mia-famiglia/357279/357839?ref=search

3.) Yesterday, Gov Italia dropped off free masks in my mailbox.

HOPEFULLY, Italia after mid-April lockdown finished can soon get BACK TO WORK.

——————————–

#261 Lost…but not leased

Read above, reconsider whom is at risk of RIP and you are the poster child of Non Sequiturs.

#292 Jager on 04.02.20 at 5:22 am

Tam: Current evidence doesn’t support the public needing masks
https://youtu.be/_edxN5kkBtc

Dr Tam is:

a) telling the truth
b) exercising doublespeak (You should wear a mask but…)
c) a quack
d) preoccupied thinking about buff dudes in speedos

You decide gentle reader…

#293 Howard on 04.02.20 at 5:42 am

#199 Cbo on 04.01.20 at 6:28 pm
I had all of my rental properties mortgage payments deferred for 2 months in the event of a ‘relationship breakdown.’

None are CMHC insured.

Through BMO. Branch manger is a reasonable guy.

—————————————

Must be nice to be able to skip payments without it even impacting your credit score.

#294 under the radar on 04.02.20 at 6:17 am

What goes around comes around

During GFC I had a national tenant that asked for partial rent relief on their additional rent for the balance of that year. I obliged , although many of their other bigger landlords did not.

They stayed my tenant for about 20 years and never forgot the gesture. Needless to say ,their rent paid for my building at least twice.

The current commercial tenant requested and received a 50% deferral for April and May. All of the residential tenants paid their April rent, not one asked for help.

#295 MF on 04.02.20 at 6:51 am

#293 Jager on 04.02.20 at 5:22 am

What are you talking about?

She’s correct.

I see all kinds of masks these days, 90% of which offer zero protection. There are even some people walking around in bandanas over their face.

The real issue here is either the public doesn’t realize that viruses are really small (someone failed biology class), or they are just clinging to something that simply makes them feel better even though it has no efficacy.

Real protection has to come from the right mask with the right filter. It has to be put on correctly every single time, and is usually single use. If it is not put on properly it becomes a liability.

Get it now?

MF

#296 SoggyShorts on 04.02.20 at 6:56 am

#284 Don Guillermo on 04.02.20 at 12:30 am
#254 Lee on 04.01.20 at 9:15 pm
Just saw an interview with Bill Gates. He thinks we need to stay shut down for at least ten more weeks.

***************************************
Dr B Gates?
***********

Umm yeah, basically. He’s spent an incredible fortune and an impressive amount of time on infectious diseases.
Possibly the closest to an expert you’ll hear from.

#297 Wait There on 04.02.20 at 7:20 am

#290

OK, you’re now thinking about this and wondering if it is smart. The administration was worried about this same aspect but they were thinking militarily. How do they sustain the ability to process specialty steel and metals used in conflict etc. I.E the steel situation. They called that aspect a National Security Threat. NOW YOU UNDERSTAND. Without a semblance of a healthy base, you do not develop the skills and insight in advancing materials. Research costs money, you do not profit from research. The cash flow is made by selling consumer steel. The one that China dumps…..to intentional stifle competition.

Now the same narrative applies to PPE. The are intrinsically simple things. But the situation is worse because in normal times, we use a tiny fraction of what is needed in an epidemic. Who in their right mind would enter an industry like that. The only solution is to stockpile. Who is going to do that? The government? After paying DB plans and gov wages, a 25 cents surgical mask will become a $5 item. THAT is the problem. The only solution is people stockpile themselves. Who’s going to do that?

The only solution is tariffs to support domestic production. The orange top guy the #45 was scorned to applying this to steel. His guys unfortunately was not thinking about epidemics. If you depend on guys like Garth’s staff to assess the risk, they will come back and say historically the chances are so low, it won’t happen.
That is the situation we are in. The chance it could happen and would happen was deemed near impossible.

I said this three weeks ago. After this, this will change people’s thinking.

#298 LP on 04.02.20 at 7:22 am

#222 Abc123 on 04.01.20 at 7:17 pm
#201 abc123 And Garth response .

I am not a realtor and I think you can do better than that.

I am real estate investor however a “ brick kicker “ if you wish.

Look just saying it’s been pretty damn good all these years on my “ side of the playground” and I believe very strongly it will continue to be.

Admonish me if you wish.

Yes. It’s ‘brick licker’. – Garth
**********************************
Licker is quicker but kicker is safer!

#299 Wait There on 04.02.20 at 7:40 am

So the reporters want models.
There are all kinds of models that high school educated people are supposed to be able to use.

First, the simple calculator and infection model. Using a simple calculator on your phone, you can quickly estimate what will happen if the same behavior is practiced. A worst case scenario. If the case numbers doubles every 4 days. Then you take the case number and double it. i.e multiply it by two, over and over again. Each time is 4 days.

The doubling time of 4 days is affected by different things. The only way to infect is when people transfer it to one another. What affects that? How close we interact with each other. If we stayed apart for 14 days and completely stood still and did NOT MOVE AT ALL, then anybody getting sick could be singled out and they would not transfer to anyone else. Within 3 weeks, we have it licked. No transfer at all. the best case scenario.
Cannot happen, we don’t stand still.
We live with each other and families. Here is the problem and why Doug Ford chose two weeks or why two was recommended. Not sure dougie can figure this out. Now what happens when we move around, we infect each other. Now what happens if someone gets infected on the last day. EVERYBODY must do another two weeks cycle.
The lockdown in theory needs to last an extra two weeks from the last case of COVID. That is a sign it is still kicking around. Once this sinks in, you see that depending on how well, you execute this plan, it could take a long time.
Now add to this the use of masks which will slow infection. Add to this the aspect of immunity, which will slow infection. etc etc. There is an upper bound and a lower bound. If you sacrifice people and let them loose, we can be over this in less than 2 months. If you die, you die AND the population will be immune.
Lockdown well and you are at risk for a long time and flareups will start again, like it is happening in China. Each time a flareup starts it means a cluster lockdown of some type. FAST and on the spot testing will be a big big help. Testing that take 4-5 days is a joke with COVID.
Only recently USA issued on the spot testing that is reliable, this was a game changer. But the press does not understand the significance. Nor do people trained in the arts etc. ……the press.
ANYONE who graduated biology in high school can explain this or figure it out quickly given time. Shows you how many actually learned biology in high school.

Now the finance guys should be able to figure this out because the doubling time concept etc. is principally the same as interest rates. Except instead of 1-2% rates, you are dealing with big rates in short periods. The POWER OF COMPOUNDING. Same thing.

#300 maxx on 04.02.20 at 7:45 am

@ #3

The only promise in life is potential and possibility. Hope is the driver.

Death, is a given.

#301 Figure it Out on 04.02.20 at 8:08 am

“Nearly half of Edmonton businesses expect to permanently close, three per cent already have: survey”

[voiced with sangfroid] A lot of them probably had preexisting conditions.

#302 Jager on 04.02.20 at 8:28 am

#296 MF on 04.02.20 at 6:51 am

So your choice is either (b (c or maybe (d

Note: See my previous posts. I encourage people to wear a mask in public (N95)…if you can find them. This is done for personal protection and for the protection of others.

#303 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 8:31 am

Hmmm
A leader that is decisive and tells it like it is….. even if he is stark raving mad…….

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-philippines-dutert/shoot-them-dead-philippine-leader-says-wont-tolerate-lockdown-violators-idUSKBN21K0AY

#304 TurnerNation on 04.02.20 at 8:31 am

SEPT 2020: tens of million of young people will be out of work, no jobs, and no post-secondary school due to uncertainty. What to do – what to do.
Also, how did USA rise out of the Great Depression into industry?
Answer: War. Draft. WAR DRAFT.
There’s nothing new on this Earth. Only the same old play book. Pt. 3

#305 maxx on 04.02.20 at 8:38 am

@ #23

“WTF has happened to us ?”

So many of us believed the MSM hype of “you deserve it”, “you only live once”, “it’s a great investment” and “aspirational lifestyle upgrades”. The Joneses, seemingly, are alive and well.

Dawg, Canuckleheads are dumb. Maybe the dumbest on the planet, fiscally speaking. We had the American experience right in our faces from 2007-2012 and didn’t pay a lick of attention, panting and drooling in bidding wars. What putzes.

Some of us, apparently many on this blog, who took good care of their finances will sail through this COVID-19 crap in very decent shape, if not, in style.

COVID-19 will cremate the economy short-term and it will take a long time to restore as not only are dollars affected, the mindset of far too many Canadians is also. Already, many see this as an opportunity to take a “payment vacation” on debt and a lazier, more entitled and irresponsible mindset is increasing. The debt restructuring business will explode after this crisis.

#306 Jager on 04.02.20 at 9:13 am

Message to Steve Rowlandson:

I’m happy to send you the funds (interac email) for a 2nd laptop battery. Unsure when this lockdown (lack of charging stations etc.) will end so a charged backup might be helpful.

#307 YouKnowWho on 04.02.20 at 9:33 am

Is it me or are 80% of the deaths in Senior’s homes and long term care facilities?

Globe is reporting 600+ of these locations have Covid in it. As if it knew the addresses of all of these locations!

#308 Dharma Bum on 04.02.20 at 9:42 am

#65 Blacksheep

Societies’ mindset will shift to:

There are something’s in this world we cannot stop.

So lets get the hell on with it.

Then nature, will run its course.
——————————————————————-

That’s what I’ve tryin’ to tell ya!

Let’s get on with it people.

VAMANOS!

#309 Flop... on 04.02.20 at 9:46 am

Do you think Bill Morneau steals a McCain French Fry from the oven when he thinks his wife isn’t looking…

M45BC

#310 Time traveller on 04.02.20 at 9:51 am

The current world economic system crashed in 2008 and since that time the central planners have been working tirelessly in coordination to form a one world digital currency with special drawing rights and one world govt. The implementation of that system has lag time attached to it and will take about 3 years to implement. The banking system as we know it including the bond and stock markets will not be part of the new system and will be allowed to become obsolete. Try to plan accordingly. The USA as we currently know it will no longer exist with an alternate capital in Denver eventually being set up. What you are experiencing today via a level 1 low grade bio virus is an excuse to implement said measures without panicking the masses. This believe it or not will make for a better world.

#311 akashic record on 04.02.20 at 10:03 am

#269 John in Mtl on 04.01.20 at 10:39 pm
@ #104 Lost…but not leased on 04.01.20 at 3:19 pm
@#166 Smoking Man on 04.01.20 at 5:32 pm

You don’t get it, do you? They are awaiting the tsunami. It may come, or it may not
but they are ready for it, as they should be in this situation.

The premise of the whole story is that those particular hospitals were visited where the media reported massive lineups. They went to see it for themselves.

#312 Penny Henny on 04.02.20 at 10:14 am

#212 Nonplused on 04.01.20 at 7:03 pm

If everyone had followed my grandmother’s advice to have 2 months worth of living expenses on hand perhaps this wouldn’t have been so rough.
//////////////

Well have you ever thought that not everyone knew your grandmother.
Duh.
:)

#313 MF on 04.02.20 at 10:21 am

303 Jager on 04.02.20 a

Not b or c, but choice a.

Shes telling the truth.

The average joe cannot be trusted to use ppe properly. The public health messages are or mass consumption, not individual cases.

MF

#314 whiplash on 04.02.20 at 10:30 am

#300 Wait There

So reporters want models……

If every person carrying the virus on average transmits to 0.26 person per day, total number of new patients will increase by 1.26. The first 30 days in the US, 100,000 cases, by April 10-11 the number of new cases will be just under a million, and it just keeps snowballing.

Similar to offering to pay someone to work for you for 30 days at a penny a day and everyday it doubles.

#315 Mattl on 04.02.20 at 10:35 am

#210 Questions, Musings and Ramblings on 04.01.20 at 6:53 pm
#74 Mattl
40 percent of homeowners have no mortgage at all. And the 1.7 in mortgage debt is backed by 6t in equity

Does the 6t equity include the equity owned by the 40 percent homeowners with no mortgages?

————————————————————-

It does, and there is no doubt that a percentage of homeowners are over leveraged. But I think it’s important to remember that all that debt is backed by a significant amount of equity.

And homes for most are a long term hold – I think the average hold is around a decade. So while short term fluctuations are interesting, and get the blog dogs worked up, they really don’t impact large majority of homeowners.

#316 Mattl on 04.02.20 at 10:41 am

#216 Barb on 04.01.20 at 7:09 pm
TD predicts $180B deficit.

——————————————————————

Which will be paid for by…..hold for it……today’s millennial.

The millennial whiners that post here have no idea what they have signed up for. By the time they hit peak earning years, peak taxes will be required. Their parents will be living on passive, tax sheltered income.

Even better, they are lobbying for inheritance taxes, so when boomer dad bites it, the gov will take half their share.

The ultimate “careful what you wish for” scenario about to play out.

#317 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 10:42 am

@#313 Penny not saved
“Well have you ever thought that not everyone knew your grandmother.”
++++
Another brilliant observation by the “Henny”

Perhaps another way to look at the statement about saving 3 months worth of living expenses is…..

Some of our grandparents and or parents remember what it was like to live through the Great Depression.

When people didnt have the govt standing there as a Nanny handing out cash…..

Save some cash because this isnt getting better any time soon….

#318 Philanderer on 04.02.20 at 10:44 am

This shutdown is killing me. I haven’t been able to see my side-piece in weeks. Husband is driving me over the bend. When this is all done, I’m filing for a divorce.

#319 IHCTD9 on 04.02.20 at 10:49 am

#286 not 1st on 04.02.20 at 12:45 am
….and we have our first province teetering on insolvency.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/newfoundland-labrador-oil-pandemic-covid-coronavirus-dwight-ball-1.5516620
——

This situation is despite NL going bonkers with hundreds of new taxes and fee increases back in 2016.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nl-budget-tax-increases-1.3535716

They doubled the gas taxes, cranked the HST, put a new 15% tax on insurance premiums. Yet four years later, the second these doorknobs can’t borrow anymore money, they are out of cash in less than 3 months.

These poor residents of NL can’t take a $h!t without first paying the government for the privilege, but evidently it’s still not enough.

From the link:

“There is a point coming soon when this province will not be able to pay its public service,”

I think that paints a pretty clear picture of where the biggest liability lies…

Even so, I’d bet good $ that any Public Servant in the totally broke province of NL who is “self isolating” right now, is doing so with full pay.

#320 Biff on 04.02.20 at 10:57 am

Garth,
I can’t believe you have to read all this crap every day. Just shut down the comment section. It’s disturbing.

#321 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 11:06 am

@#319 Philanderer
” When this is all done, I’m filing for a divorce.”

++++

ahahaha, Classic.

9 months from now.
Lotsa babies and……… divorces.

#322 IHCTD9 on 04.02.20 at 11:08 am

So, September 2020 comes, and the good people of Canada feel it’s safe to crawl out of self isolation, and go back to work.

After all, the economy can’t take anymore, neither can our governments.

Good thing that every last CV-19 virus on the planet is dead by now right?

Not a chance in hell. The minute life goes back to normal, CV-19 cases will climb, all over again. Act 2.

The only question is, will the media decide to drive everyone stark raving mad again, thereby obligating governments to jump off a cliff trying to save everyone like in round 1?

Or will everyone finally just do what they can as dictated by their circumstances, and let nature run its course?

Fact is, nature WILL run its course, now, or later.

#323 Did not get rent... on 04.02.20 at 11:20 am

So, April 1 has come and gone, and three of my tenants in my seven properties did not pay their rent because, they claimed, their income and savings have plummeted. I can handle it, my properties quadrupled in value since
I bought them in the late nineties, but I surely hope next month we will be back to normal…

– Pierre

#324 Kothar on 04.02.20 at 11:23 am

they blinked as Ryan said might happen…genius prediction.

#325 Another Deckchair on 04.02.20 at 11:24 am

@320, the D9

“Even so, I’d bet good $ that any Public Servant in the totally broke province of NL who is “self isolating” right now, is doing so with full pay.”

Of course. As a 2 decade long fed. public servant, the unions rule. Not much management (Ex-levels) could do except just accept it.

But, before I left, I got to see one of the “Office 2.0” spaces or whatever they were called, with cubicles about the size of a school-bus seat, with eye-level view of hundreds of colleagues.

How do they keep the 2-metre rule of self-isolation? That’s just one problem of the result of the brainiacs who decided that the open concept of the Office 2.0 would save on building costs and increase communication.

Oh well! the old cubicles and even real offices that was there for most of my employment would be still ok. today. Shrug.

#326 not 1st on 04.02.20 at 11:26 am

Not Made in China Is Global Tech’s Next Big Trend

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/supply-chains-latest-not-made-in-china-is-tech-s-next-move

#327 Mattl on 04.02.20 at 11:29 am

#294 Howard on 04.02.20 at 5:42 am
#199 Cbo on 04.01.20 at 6:28 pm
I had all of my rental properties mortgage payments deferred for 2 months in the event of a ‘relationship breakdown.’

None are CMHC insured.

Through BMO. Branch manger is a reasonable guy.

—————————————

Must be nice to be able to skip payments without it even impacting your credit score.

————————————————————-

You realize all CDN banks have had a skip a payment in place for years. I could have skipped a total of 15 payments in the past 15 years.

Hope you are sitting down, I have another blockbuster for you. You can adjust he amortization period, thereby altering the payment amount.

A buddy just had his restaurant financing deferred. Does that bother you as well?

If it does, I have a solution for you!

a) buy a property or
b) buy a restaurant and
d) lose your job / get into a tight financial spot

You too will get all of these gravy private sector deferrals. Just think, all you need to do is take on a ton of debt, demonstrate you can’t service it, and your lender will extend that massive debt a few extra months. What a windfall.

#328 Sail away on 04.02.20 at 11:30 am

#319 Philanderer on 04.02.20 at 10:44 am

This shutdown is killing me. I haven’t been able to see my side-piece in weeks. Husband is driving me over the bend. When this is all done, I’m filing for a divorce.

——————

Well, it’s sort of your own fault for making life difficult and fooling around inside a marriage. Your husband will probably appreciate the divorce.

My wife and I are very much enjoying the time together. Long walks, good food, relaxation, a little slap and tickle when the mood strikes…

#329 Sail away on 04.02.20 at 11:35 am

#320 IHCTD9 on 04.02.20 at 10:49 am

This situation is despite NL going bonkers with hundreds of new taxes and fee increases back in 2016.

————-

Wait… you mean raising taxes with no industry support isn’t the magic bullet? Blasphemy!

Don’t let T2 hear you talking that way. After all: “Enough is enough!”

#330 Lahdeedah on 04.02.20 at 11:36 am

I wonder how many other condo projects will follow…

Three luxury condo projects by Cresford Group in downtown Toronto go into receivership

https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/03/31/three-luxury-condo-projects-in-downtown-toronto-go-into-receivership.html

So really, for all the AirBnB units that will flood the market looking for long-term tenants, or to sell off, there will likely be an equal amount of condo projects closing down, mid-construction…so you’ll win some, and lose some.

#331 Lambchop on 04.02.20 at 11:38 am

Invested in some commodities the other day.
One dozen fertile eggs, which I installed under a broody hen.
40 beautiful seed potatoes from Alberta, currently being chitted in the office/library.
Various seeds for high-production veggies.
Bag of kosher salt and an extra bag of sugar.

#332 Sky on 04.02.20 at 11:38 am

For those lost in the mushroom cloud of corona despair, perhaps some perspective is in order. A little trip down memory lane :

“During the 2017/18 season, influenza B/Yamagata circulated widely and dominated over mixed influenza A subtypes. Many European countries experienced a marked excess mortality among the elderly similar to that observed during the A(H3N2) dominated seasons 2014/15 and 2016/17.”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1198743X19300588
*************
What? A marked excess mortality in MANY European countries but zero house arrests ? Were they stupid 3 years ago?

************
” European Mortality Bulletin, week 13 2019:

Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show that the peak in excess mortality has passed and mortality is back to normal level….”

http://www.euromomo.eu/bulletin_pdf/2019/2019_13_bulletin.pdf

Again with the excess mortality and yet people were allowed to work, ALL businesses remained essential (especially to their owners and employees). And still no house arrests. Stuck in the Dark Ages, I guess.

Which brings us to the latest European mortality numbers :

European mortality bulletin week 12, 2020

“Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show, overall, normal expected levels in the participating countries; however, increased excess mortality is notable in Italy.”

https://www.euromomo.eu/

With the exception of Italy, we see normal mortality numbers. Normal numbers? Panic !!

We must immediately implement 24-7 media fear porn, shut down the western economies , crash the markets and – you guessed it – personal lockdown.

Now we’re finally cooking. Coming out of the Dark Ages at last.

It’s to save the old people, don’t you know. And the children. Don’t forget the children. Which of course have not in any way been forgotten as they are now full fledged members in good standing of the house arrest club.

If the European mortality numbers rise, as I suspect they probably will, remember this is a NORMAL recurrence. Now ask yourselves if the utterly insane response to this is in any way normal.

I am so pissed at the economic destruction and loss of liberty underway.

And for what? A damn bug that’s more than likely been with us since the fall.

#333 maxx on 04.02.20 at 11:41 am

@ #33

Not surprising – if relationships are on shaky/flimsy foundations to begin with, any crisis of this magnitude will force change.

Myriad fallout.

#334 Figmund Sreud on 04.02.20 at 11:50 am

Oh, great! More oil, … exactly what the world need.

Al-Khafji is one of two major fields in the Neutral Zone, along with the onshore Wafra that had been shuttered by a political dispute between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, before a deal brokered in December paved the way for their restart.

The fields, which have a combined capacity of 550,000 b/d, are in an area straddling the border between the two countries, which agreed in 1970 to co-manage and share crude production from the zone equally.

The Suezmax tanker Monte Toledo was loading up 1 million barrels of crude at the Ras al-Khafji terminal Thursday, data from Platts cFlow, trade flow software, showed.

The tanker arrived at the terminal on Wednesday, the first tanker to have arrived at the port in a number of years, according to Platts cFlow data.

First crude oil cargo set to be exported from Saudi-Kuwaiti Neutral Zone
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/040220-first-crude-oil-cargo-set-to-be-exported-from-saudi-kuwaiti-neutral-zone

F.S. – Calgary, AB.

#335 IHCTD9 on 04.02.20 at 11:55 am

#318 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.02.20 at 10:42 am
@#313 Penny not saved
“Well have you ever thought that not everyone knew your grandmother.”
++++
Another brilliant observation by the “Henny”

Perhaps another way to look at the statement about saving 3 months worth of living expenses is…..

Some of our grandparents and or parents remember what it was like to live through the Great Depression.

When people didnt have the govt standing there as a Nanny handing out cash…..

Save some cash because this isnt getting better any time soon….
———

Sometimes a little cash in the bank does alright. We have about 22 weeks wages in an “emergency fund”, and while my portfolio is taking multiple front kicks to the head right now, the EF is unaffected.

22 weeks is too much, some of it is earmarked, some was destined to get invested later this year after tax time. We just got lucky being slow to start moving it around so it escaped the carnage intact.

I think I’ll keep it up, but maybe saw it off at 8-10 weeks worth going forward. The reality is, even with being laid off, and all the crap going on in the world, there is a very good possibility that we will not need to dip into any of it.

#336 DarekV on 04.02.20 at 12:06 pm

I like listening to these client calls Garth. Thanks for uploading!

#337 Lefty on 04.02.20 at 12:06 pm

#321 Biff

No one’s forcing you to read the comments, dude.

#338 bdwy on 04.02.20 at 12:09 pm

Shes telling the truth.

The average joe cannot be trusted to use ppe properly. The public health messages are or mass consumption, not individual cases.

—————————-
shes a token hack. a danger to public health. a bootlicker. just like the WHO bootlicker in chief.
appointed on the basis of her genitals and skin color only.

her quote “don’t use a mask because the outside of the mask may get contaminated”

she needs to take this shining logic to the nhl coaching world.
“dont use a goalie because the puck may hit the goalie and then someone could get the rebound.”

#339 NoName on 04.02.20 at 12:12 pm

#314 MF on 04.02.20 at 10:21 am
303 Jager on 04.02.20 a

Not b or c, but choice a.

Shes telling the truth.

The average joe cannot be trusted to use ppe properly. The public health messages are or mass consumption, not individual cases.

MF

WOW… An average Joe PPE.

Oh man are you even re read your comments, you are getting funnier every day.

Let me guess, you have to be part of affluent and eloquent inteligencia to be competent enough to be able use of face mask and disposable gloves as intended.

Answer me who is average Joe, someone like me with 9.5 years of education who can’t spel his way out of paper bag, or someone bit more educated. I know I am definitely on a stats margins but that’s just me.

In 2016, more than half (54.0%) of Canadians aged 25 to 64 had either college or university qualifications, up from 48.3% in 2006. Canada continues to rank first among the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in the proportion of college and university graduates.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/171129/dq171129a-eng.htm

#340 GAV on 04.02.20 at 12:17 pm

Congratulations to Gerald Butts and his team.

They have managed to accomplished the impossible. They have made the Ontario Liberal Wynne government look professional and brilliant.

I have an idea to make the comments of this blog post better.

Please initial initialize your comment by stating if you voted Liberal federally. In that way, in order to protect their mental health, people can not waste time reading the rest.

Jason Kenny for Prime Minister or a free West.

#341 GSP on 04.02.20 at 12:18 pm

“And, by the way, mortgage rates have been going up.”

But Mr. Turner, couldn’t unlimited bond buying by the Fed keep interest rates low (forever)?

#342 maxx on 04.02.20 at 12:35 pm

@ #64

Ever heard of pent-up schadenfreude?

Clean the wax out of your ears – the laughter is deafening.

Suck it up, buttercup.

#343 IHCTD9 on 04.02.20 at 12:40 pm

#330 Sail away on 04.02.20 at 11:35 am

Wait… you mean raising taxes with no industry support isn’t the magic bullet? Blasphemy!

——

T2 don’t need no damn industry support!

“I always say I don’t know if I’m supporting them or they’re supporting me.”

– Dolly Parton

#344 Renter's Revenge! on 04.02.20 at 12:46 pm

#329 Sail away on 04.02.20 at 11:30 am
a little slap and tickle when the mood strikes…

=============================

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTGBQkCO_LM

#345 Figmund Sreud on 04.02.20 at 12:51 pm

Wholesale spot petroleum prices, 04/01/20 close

WTI 20.28 $/bbl, … Brent 14.85 $/bbl

A negativeBrent/WTI premium will kill U.S. crude exports, … and add to storage! Just watch, … and ski-doo with care playin’ dabbling in crude at this junction!
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/

F.S. – Calgary, AB.

#346 Mikeshouse on 04.02.20 at 1:57 pm

“Lately even giant corps – like Canadian Tire and A&W – have been asking their landlords for six months of payment relief.”

I have little sympathy For Canadian Tire in that if you, per-chance are a bit late with a credit card payment or whoops…miss one, you are charged 29% up from 19% percent, from then on for your balance, you draw cash or for new purchases till you pay your balance out.

#347 MF on 04.02.20 at 2:58 pm

340 NoName on 04.02.20 at 12:12

Hey man nothing i said was incorrect or not factual. Nothing was meant to be offensive either, sorry if it was taken that way.

The truth is still that public health recommendations are developed for mass consumption. The simplest, most effective way of transmitting advice is what they go for…even if it isn’t 100%.

You are correct about masks of course. But to expect the majority of people to be able to follow proper procedures (which even health care professionals struggle with) is a stretch. Tam is right. They can be worse than nothing if used incorrectly.

Friends? :)

MF

#348 David Pylyp on 04.02.20 at 3:28 pm

And so it begins….

Claimed; Cresford pre-sold 918 units in the Yorkville project, taking in $160 million in deposits. It is also claimed that Cresford took in $3 million from purchasers of 388 units at Halo and $49 million in purchase deposits on 499 units at Clover. https://www.thestar.com/amp/business/2020/03/31/three-luxury-condo-projects-in-downtown-toronto-go-into-receivership.html

#BAMM Sky cracked

David Pylyp
Toronto

#349 Left GTA on 04.02.20 at 8:39 pm

They should get their act together make more n95 masks and make everyone wear them. Fine them if caught not wearing it. Give jobs to people to be PPE officers and monitor them wearing it. Let the working adults go back to work wearing their masks so the economy does not fall apart. Let the kids do school on line and socialize on line.
Hopefully slow down the virus. I am a nurse sick with a chest infection I am on puffers, steriods and antibiotics. I have a bit of seasonal asthma. I tested negative for COVID and my Dr. thinks this is just a regular virus. I don’t know what to think but I am pretty sick. I work part time so no sick benefits and my work won’t pay me for covid related illness because i tested negative yet I am on self isolation as per public health I can not leave home for another 2 weeks. But they will pay the workers sick pay that is covid positive. The test are 80% accurate. No way i’m going to go anywhere to get retested and expose my self to more germs. I am SOL. They want me to return to work in 2 more weeks after being home sick with no pay for a month. Fortunately my Garth recommended portfolio has not been affected much.

#350 Shawn Allen on 04.03.20 at 2:52 pm

When to Buy/

#251 Lillooet, BC on 04.02.20 at 10:58 pm
HI Shawn Allen:

your favorite CWB has dropped quite a bit. At what level are you going to buy?

**************************
At the bottom?

#351 Shawn Allen on 04.03.20 at 2:59 pm

How is the virus spreading, exactly?

If it is spread by talking withing say 2 to three feet and touch things the infected have touched then there should be a large number of grocery store cash register clerks in the new cases. Most were unprotected at least up until the last few days. They touched items that hundreds had touched for days on end.

Are they (in any meaningful numbers) getting the virus or not. If not or if so, what does that tell us about the spread?

Travelers with no symptoms are now being told they can’t walk in a field by themselves for 14 days. And neighbors will gladly rat them out if they do that (near) zero-risk activity.

Meanwhile there has to be lots of people in grocery stores with the virus and if it is not spreading to the cashiers then what is up?