Wild

Eeeeeeeeow! What a wild ride.

The stock market careened lower from record highs in just a few weeks by a shocking 38%. But lately it’s zipped back up an impressive 22%. Mr. Market apparently doesn’t think the world is ending. So I guess he doesn’t read the comments on this pathetic blog.

(When I walked back from the office yesterday Dorothy was a wreck. ‘What happened?’ I asked, sweeping her into my manly embrace. Finally she admitted it. “I read the comments,” she whispered. It took three awful episodes of Father Brown to cleanse her mind.)

Back on Bay Street an experienced vet says this: “We’ve had the shock and awe. The institutions are buying again. Consumer sentiment may start to improve. The bounce is technical. The market is pricing in a “V’ shaped recovery. Everybody wants one.”

People with nicely balanced and diversified portfolios who leave them alone will probably do fine. But what about the real estate market? Could the virus attack of 2020 be the catalyst for housing’s Big Reset?

Things are going from uncomfortable to excruciating for the realtor species. In Toronto, for example, showings fell 59% last week from the previous seven days. Same story for sales. Year/year deals are down 40%. The number of cancelled listings has grown by a third and new listings have plunged 33% as owners decide there’s no way germy strangers are coming through to fondle their stuff.

RBC (the biggest mortgage lender) says property values will fall. “Surging unemployment and the market’s illiquidity will compel a growing number of tight-squeezed [home] sellers to make price concessions. We think the recovery will come in stages—taking buyers up to a year to regroup and rebuild confidence amid high unemployment. Based on these assumptions, we project home resales to dive by nearly 30% this year in Canada to a 20-year low.”

Way worse in Calgary and Edmonton, of course, as Canadian oil prices crash (more to come, it seems). Meanwhile cash-strapped homeowners continue to melt down the banks’ call centres. Over a quarter million families have now asked for relief, and the calls are coming in at the rate of 80,000-120,000 per day. Staggering. Add this to the maybe-1,000,000 tenants who have indicated they can’t (or won’t) pay their rent tomorrow.

Now, here’s another flea on the dog: failed closings.

Almost 66,000 properties across Canada sold in the first eight weeks of the year, and a ton of those deals have yet to be completed. For every transaction there’s a family selling and one buying, so in the middle of a pandemic with mass unemployment and growing credit risk, many folks have a lot to worry about.

For example, the appraised value of a house may have declined between offer day and closing, jeopardizing financing. The buyer might have suddenly, unexpectedly lost a job and be unable to proceed. The mortgage broker’s funding commitment might have gone poof. Maybe an investment portfolio that was intended to finance the deal faded. Or perhaps, like so many in the blog’s steerage section, purchasers turned into paralyzed puddles of gooey anxiety. Buyer’s remorse, fear and loathing. Perchance they even got the bug.

Lots of reasons now exist for buyers to consider walking from a deal that poses risk. It’s not that dissimilar from 2017, when prices charged lower and deals disintegrated into lawsuits. Expect more, since a mere global pandemic is no legal excuse for getting out of a real estate contract. Buyers who fail to close not only give up their deposits, but also stand liable to pay the difference between their offered price and the ultimate sale price of the property in a down market. Plus legals. Ouch.

So, if you bought a house you could barely afford with a job, and are now unemployed, too bad. Even having the bank pull your funding won’t allow a clean break from the deal. With almost 10% of the entire workforce having applied for EI benefits at this point, expect some chaos.

And speaking of legal stuff, agents now need this sworn statement before they’ll even show you a house:

  • I have not travelled anywhere outside of Canada, or been in contact with anyone who has travelled outside of Canada, in the last 14 days.
  • I have not experienced any of the following symptoms in the last 14 days: fever, dry cough, shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing.
  • I have not knowingly come into contact with anyone experiencing any of the following symptoms in the last 14 days: fever, dry cough, shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing.
  • I have not knowingly come into contact with anyone with a presumptive or confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis in the last 14 days.

If you lie, the brokerage can go after you. The homeowner might, too. The cops will arrest you for non-self-isolation. The Social Distance Warriors will shame you mercilessly on FB, Insta and maybe (if they can dance) on TikTok.

Remember back when all you had to worry about were bidding wars, rockstar realtors in Audis, greedy sellers, blind auctions, runaway prices and your mom’s failed expectations? Damn, miss those days.

 

229 comments ↓

#1 NoName on 03.31.20 at 4:44 pm

Didnt do this for a while, post funny video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ML6LjKoyk8A

#2 BlogDog123 on 03.31.20 at 4:47 pm

This is finally becoming a dream come true for the ‘Happy House Crash Everyone’ dude.

Expect his unsympathetic comments peppered with ‘shyster’ for good measure.

#3 Phylis on 03.31.20 at 4:47 pm

Yikes, that’s dangerous, her shoe lace isn’t tied.

#4 Oakville Sucks on 03.31.20 at 4:49 pm

When the market crashes 33%, that means it’s got to go up 50% to get back to where it was! Percentage can be very misleading!

#5 JSS on 03.31.20 at 4:51 pm

If oil is headed down, then how come oil related stocks like Suncor and CNRL are like sooo up today???

#6 Red falcon on 03.31.20 at 4:51 pm

Oh ya…
and first!!!

#7 Emile on 03.31.20 at 4:51 pm

> The Social Distance Warriors will shame you mercilessly on FB, Insta and maybe (if they can dance) on TikTok.

This is the worst of this situation… I wish we treated adults like adults here… Like in Sweden and Holland.

#8 Mike on 03.31.20 at 4:52 pm

Crude prices will lose another 10% from where they are now, then start to head north again, not that it will be much consolation. Interest rates are going to bump up, risk is on and both provincial and federal governments are showing their complete lack of preparation.

#9 YouKnowWho on 03.31.20 at 4:54 pm

On the 20th day of COVID my Hon. J. Trudeau sent to me…

– Self quarantine
– Travel restrictions
– Closed borders…while planes are still flying COVID
– Social distancing…except on planes
– Bad case of germaphobia (Fear not Germany!)
– 10% salary subsidy
– make that 75% salary subsidy
– $2000 dollars!
– $82B aid
– make that $102B aid
– No limit Gift card (Expires Sept 30th, 2020)
– Mortgage vacation
– April’s Fools for Landlords
– Low interest rates
– Even lower interest rates
– Money for Kid’s Help Phone and United Way
– $40K loans for SMB
– $200M for shelters
– Something else this morning for $2B to help PM JT approval ratings

…and a Partridge in a Pear Tree

#10 Tiger 1960 on 03.31.20 at 4:55 pm

This is beautiful I love it I knew from an early age to prepare for this

#11 Caledondave on 03.31.20 at 4:56 pm

First?

#12 tonik on 03.31.20 at 4:59 pm

50% of Canadians living paycheck to paycheck.

Now millions upon millions to be unemployed, more than the Great Depression.

The next few weeks will drive a new awakening
– no mas debt!
– no mas spending!
– save save save

And with the economy being 70% consumer spending, this will not be a V recovery,

#13 Yukon Elvis on 03.31.20 at 4:59 pm

Lots of reasons now exist for buyers to consider walking from a deal that poses risk. It’s not that dissimilar from 2017, when prices charged lower and deals disintegrated into lawsuits. Expect more, since a mere global pandemic is no legal excuse for getting out of a real estate contract. Buyers who fail to close not only give up their deposits, but also stand liable to pay the difference between their offered price and the ultimate sale price of the property in a down market. Plus legals. Ouch.

So, if you bought a house you could barely afford with a job, and are now unemployed, too bad. Even having the bank pull your funding won’t allow a clean break from the deal. With almost 10% of the entire workforce having applied for EI benefits at this point, expect some chaos.
………………………………….

Not gonna happen. Can be legislated away with stroke of a pen. Like the stress test. Stop scaring the children.

#14 Lefty on 03.31.20 at 5:00 pm

At this point, I trust Mr Market’s prediction(s) of how this thing will play out WAY more than our so-called experts. They’ve pooched it from the beginning.

#15 Patty on 03.31.20 at 5:07 pm

“When I walked back from the office yesterday Dorothy was a wreck. ‘What happened?’ I asked, sweeping her into my manly embrace.”

WTF. Garth, you are in the group that should not be out walking anywhere. You should be in self-isolation. And maintain 6 feet distance from Dorothy and Bandit if you do go out, don’t embrace them.

#16 Rico on 03.31.20 at 5:08 pm

“We’ve had the shock and awe. The institutions are buying again. Consumer sentiment may start to improve. The bounce is technical. The market is pricing in a “V’ shaped recovery. Everybody wants one.”

Wow! Talk about delusional. The market always prices in a V shaped recovery even though it has never happened (this time it’s different?).
You just posted how Canadian consumers are DEAD with no job and no savings. EI is delayed, mortgage deferrals are being refused. Where is the money going to come from to restart the economy?
This’ll get messy. It has just begun.

#17 NotLegalAdvice on 03.31.20 at 5:08 pm

Where is that “housing only goes up” dude from a couple months ago?

Or “UPPA UPPA UPPA”?

#18 TheDood on 03.31.20 at 5:09 pm

#13 Yukon Elvis on 03.31.20 at 4:59 pm
Lots of reasons now exist for buyers to consider walking from a deal that poses risk. It’s not that dissimilar from 2017, when prices charged lower and deals disintegrated into lawsuits. Expect more, since a mere global pandemic is no legal excuse for getting out of a real estate contract. Buyers who fail to close not only give up their deposits, but also stand liable to pay the difference between their offered price and the ultimate sale price of the property in a down market. Plus legals. Ouch.

So, if you bought a house you could barely afford with a job, and are now unemployed, too bad. Even having the bank pull your funding won’t allow a clean break from the deal. With almost 10% of the entire workforce having applied for EI benefits at this point, expect some chaos.
………………………………….

Not gonna happen. Can be legislated away with stroke of a pen. Like the stress test. Stop scaring the children.
—————————–

Never say never, you are right, it could be legislated away with the stroke of a pen, but will it? I don’t think so. If I’m a seller and you signed a contract to buy, pay up. I don’t care if you lost your job. I already bought another property and need the proceeds of this sale to meet my financial obligations, plus I have 2 hefty lease payments on the 2 beemers in the garage.

The stress test will never go away, nor should it. Canadians have proven their stupid financial ways for decades and need this control in place to protect against their own bad decision making.

#19 Lahdeedah on 03.31.20 at 5:11 pm

AirBnB landlords are losing their $#!% and losing their shirts…

https://www.dailydot.com/debug/airbnb-coronavirus-rental-marker/?fbclid=IwAR2sj8AOOnV-P-_FEaA91I_wJ37VdCVknJjh1XR_kZtMCBXeAothhjjiSec

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/03/31/covid-19-could-mark-the-end-of-torontos-airbnb-era-and-good-riddance-heres-how-to-keep-it-that-way.html

#20 Dave on 03.31.20 at 5:11 pm

6-12 months from now, what effect will this have on prices if things blow over and pent up buyers start coming back in droves and more people start listing their houses again? Won’t it be a wash?

#21 Attrition on 03.31.20 at 5:12 pm

I’m starting to think people have forgotten the absolute and inverse relationship between interest rates and overall house prices.

Viruses, foreign buyers, even insurance scares are a mere puff.

Rates go down, house prices go up.
Rates go up, house prices go down.
Everything else is noise.

Sure, there can be short term impacts driven by changing tastes, demographics, etc. that drive small fluctuations in the housing market, and sure govt regulations can encourage bubbles (which can happen at lower prices as well).

But houses prices only go where rates do not–unless that eternal relationship has broken down and it’s suddenly, inexplicably and unpredictably different this time?

So where do you see (government) moving rates? That will tell you where house prices are headed.

Mortgage rates are currently rising. – Garth

#22 Paully on 03.31.20 at 5:13 pm

I’m thinking about picking up a killer deal on a lightly used luxury vehicle from a non-performing real estate agent some time this fall. There should be lots of repo deals!

#23 Ottawan on 03.31.20 at 5:13 pm

The pandemic may be global but the hit to RE will be regional,

#24 Stratovarious on 03.31.20 at 5:15 pm

Wow, you actually think that the market’s are on the mend? You, better than most, know that in a bear market is is common, indeed expected, that there are rallies that retrace part of the loss. Furthermore, much of the current “rally” was due to pension funds and others rebalancing investments (ratio between stocks and bonds), which required purchasing additional equity by quarter end. It is no mistake that the markets showed some weakness today since rebalancing was exhausted.

When the headlines hit that unemployment in the US is >20% (predicted by Goldman), corporate profits are down double digits, bankruptcies in restaurants, retail and hospitality are skyrocketing, and deaths in the US hit into the tens of thousands, you will be glad that you waited to buy “the dip”. Sentiment is too bullish to buy in the face of a pandemic where the investment community “knowns nothing” (to paraphrase Jim Cramer).

Markets will fluctuate, of course, but a 20% rise is dramatic. Headlines move guys like you, not professional traders. Stay invested. – Garth

#25 Zed on 03.31.20 at 5:15 pm

Garth,

Why would this crisis affect RE when the great recession did not have a real effect then, other than maybe -10% value for 4-6 months?

Did you think that so many jobs will just not come back?

The governments are throwing so much money at the economy/individuals that the money is still around.

No showings, no sales. No sales, no market. Price drops next. – Garth

#26 Howard on 03.31.20 at 5:19 pm

As mentioned, Trudeau will simply prohibit home sellers from pursuing buyers who cannot close due to job loss.

#27 Dave on 03.31.20 at 5:19 pm

How much will prices drop in 2020 in Metro Vancouver?

#28 Moh on 03.31.20 at 5:21 pm

Thanks for the post Garth. What do you think is going to happen to the people who bought new build homes in the Brampton, Georgetown, Milton area last year and already paid 20 per cent deposits?

#29 Howard on 03.31.20 at 5:24 pm

#19 Lahdeedah on 03.31.20 at 5:11 pm
AirBnB landlords are losing their $#!% and losing their shirts…

https://www.dailydot.com/debug/airbnb-coronavirus-rental-marker/?fbclid=IwAR2sj8AOOnV-P-_FEaA91I_wJ37VdCVknJjh1XR_kZtMCBXeAothhjjiSec

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/03/31/covid-19-could-mark-the-end-of-torontos-airbnb-era-and-good-riddance-heres-how-to-keep-it-that-way.html

—————————————-

The notorious ICE condos (two buildings) on Lakeshore currently have 96 units up for rent!

https://condos.ca/toronto/ice-condos-ice-condos-ii-12-york-st-14-york-st

#30 Franco on 03.31.20 at 5:25 pm

I wouldn’t be too surprised if a treatment is close by and at hand. Time to buy is now.

#31 Yukon Elvis on 03.31.20 at 5:27 pm

#18 TheDood on 03.31.20 at 5:09 pm

Never say never, you are right, it could be legislated away with the stroke of a pen, but will it? I don’t think so. If I’m a seller and you signed a contract to buy, pay up. I don’t care if you lost your job. I already bought another property and need the proceeds of this sale to meet my financial obligations, plus I have 2 hefty lease payments on the 2 beemers in the garage.
The stress test will never go away, nor should it. Canadians have proven their stupid financial ways for decades and need this control in place to protect against their own bad decision making.
……………………………………
Force Majeure :

force ma·jeure
/ˌfôrs mäˈZHər/
noun
1.
LAW
unforeseeable circumstances that prevent someone from fulfilling a contract.
2.
irresistible compulsion or greater force.

Force majeure – examples
There are dozens of circumstances or events that we class as examples of force majeure. War, riots, earthquakes, hurricanes, lightning, and explosions, for example, are force majeure events. The term also includes energy blackouts, unexpected legislation, lockouts, slowdowns, and strikes. Etc.

#32 Megaman on 03.31.20 at 5:34 pm

It’s funny when the dr said oh the virus looks like it’s leveling off. No it’s not just started it’s going to get worse before it gets better dumb dumb. And people with restaurants say they can’t pay rent. When you own a business you should be saving money not pissing it away or drinking it all every night thinking your a big shot “REALLY”. How many people are going to scam the system now can’t pay my rent when probably they have money in the bank. Putting Canada in the hole a lot deeper thanks. Wake up save your money don’t be some one your not. Nobody care

#33 Stone on 03.31.20 at 5:34 pm

When I walked back from the office yesterday…

———

Huh? What? Are you telling me your office was open when you and your employees are the ideal candidates to work from home considering the circumstances?

That’s disappointing.

Even the shills on BNN are working from home.

BNN: 1 Garth: 0

Of course I work daily from my office. It’s 300 feet from my house. Killer commute. – Garth

#34 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 5:36 pm

#15 Patty on 03.31.20 at 5:07 pm

WTF. Garth, you are in the group that should not be out walking anywhere. You should be in self-isolation. And maintain 6 feet distance from Dorothy and Bandit if you do go out, don’t embrace them.

—————

“The Social Distance Warriors will shame you mercilessly on FB, Insta and maybe (if they can dance) on TikTok.”

You called it. Heck, even on your own blog, it seems.

#35 Marco on 03.31.20 at 5:36 pm

What you call Mr Market is a bunch of criminals who in accordance with governments and banks push you to gamble your money, teach you lingo so you feel important while you loosing and ready to brag and lie about your success in the markets . And by the way real estate agents will go to China to pimp 2 x 4 assets and that poorly built condos so do not expect prices to fall. Government will bail and prolong capitalism by granting and lending the money to everybody this time and then translate that debt to government bonds and sell it as derivatives around the world.
This is extremely cunning government which did not bother to provide face masks even to doctors. This is government which will hide number of dead by not testing the population and will continue to import Wuhan virus without any concern for replaceable people (just import more). While brave leader stays in self isolation and Ukrainian immigrants daughter doing his job. Ah and “shame” word is deleted from Canadian English dictionary, long time ago.

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 5:38 pm

That is one well fed, fat fox in that pic.

I golfed in Fox Meadows in PEI a few years back.
The bloody foxes were so tame they were waiting for us golfers on the 10th tee to walk away from our carts so they could steal our hotdogs…..
Bloody bandits.

#37 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 5:39 pm

#31 Yukon Elvis on 03.31.20 at 5:27 pm

Re: Force majeure

Exactly. We’re managing dozens of projects where contractors or owners have claimed this in the last month.

Claim all you want. No defence here. – Garth

#38 Reality is stark on 03.31.20 at 5:41 pm

Please don’t tell me people on this blog don’t know what a dead cat bounce is.
Good lord people can’t honestly be that naive.
It’s one thing to be an investing novice but for those who actually know how to read we have ventured into absurd territory.

Cats rarely bounce over 20%. This give you a nice taste of what is to come, even if a sell-off intervenes. For a dead-cat bounce, the feline must be deceased. This one’s just pissed. – Garth

#39 Joe Schmoe on 03.31.20 at 5:41 pm

Nothing like arguing on the internet! Where all the discussions are rational, and people are willing to change their opinions based on new information!

My Opinions:

No one knows what the statistics will look like in the end. Every country has responded differently, and the case numbers and severity/fatality rates reflect that. Using China or Italy to presume what will happen in Canada is faulty logic.

Western Society was not ready to let a bunch of people die so others can continue to overspend at Homedepot and Walmart. Get over it. We have not yet resolved abortion or assisted suicide…we are not going to race to choosing for people any time soon.

Canada will be fine. Individually we will all have less personal wealth, but we rolled the dice with this throw away consumer economy. Times change.

There is an opportunity to actually invest in infrastructure to displace the number of McJobs that will likely not come back.

Provincially, our Health Care systems did what they could to effectively manage predicted peak case loads. Time will tell what the end result may be. I think they did a great job. Self Isolation allowed them the time to actually think case management through. My wife is on the front lines…we learned a lot in the past couple of weeks.

Remember, if all the political nay sayers around the severity of this virus did the right thing in late Jan, it would probably be over by now….

Lastly, I am a horrible homeschooler. What the heck is a conjunction again?

#40 I’m stupid on 03.31.20 at 5:43 pm

It’s said that communism is shared suffering. What can we call democracies that force some to live off of 2k a month while employees that are sitting at home that happen to work for government get full salaries? I call that oppression.

I’m unemployed, I’ve paid over $2million in income tax over the last 20 plus years and after all that I’m entitled to $570 a week. I’m fortunate enough not to need to go to work so I’m not complaining.

If I was a young unemployment indebted person I wouldn’t listen to any of the govt b.s.

#41 MF on 03.31.20 at 5:44 pm

“The institutions are buying again. Consumer sentiment may start to improve. The bounce is technical. The market is pricing in a “V’ shaped recovery. Everybody wants one.”

-Of course we want a v shaped recovery. Nobody said otherwise. It was paid for with trillions and billions of future tax money so we all expect it.

It’s what comes after when the trillion and billion dollar bill for it comes that we are all worried about.

Oh yeah, and there will be reverberating shocks that will transform the economy. More working from home, less reliance on China for anything, hesitation to attend events with large crowds, more automation, cruise industry gone etc. Real estate is dead though. That part you are correct about.

MF

#42 Stone on 03.31.20 at 5:45 pm

#33 Stone on 03.31.20 at 5:34 pm
When I walked back from the office yesterday…

———

Huh? What? Are you telling me your office was open when you and your employees are the ideal candidates to work from home considering the circumstances?

That’s disappointing.

Even the shills on BNN are working from home.

BNN: 1 Garth: 0

Of course I work daily from my office. It’s 300 feet from my house. Killer commute. – Garth

———

That’s not my point. If you’re going in and not actually seeing clients there, fine. If you do have client meetings face to face, that’s wrong.

Unbelievable. – Garth

#43 Toronto_CA on 03.31.20 at 5:46 pm

In the UK you now need a minimum of 25% down, more with the bigger lenders:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52106119

Nationwide blamed “an extremely high number of enquiries about existing mortgages and ongoing applications”.

“That is why we have taken this decision on a temporary basis although, by continuing to offer home loans up to 75% LTV, we can continue supporting the housing market,” it said.

Other lenders that have taken similar action include Santander and Skipton Building Society but many have gone further, by reducing the loan-to-value ratio to 60%.

That means borrowers will need a 40% deposit or equity in their home to be able to get a mortgage.

Lenders that have done this include Barclays, Halifax, Virgin Money and The Family Building Society, while the Coventry Building Society has cut its LTV ratio to 65%.

#44 Blacksheep on 03.31.20 at 5:46 pm

“Back on Bay Street an experienced vet says this: “We’ve had the shock and awe. The institutions are buying again. Consumer sentiment may start to improve. The bounce is technical. The market is pricing in a “V’ shaped recovery. Everybody wants one.”
—————————————
Agreed: “Everybody wants one”

Problem is, Covid has not run it course as the worst is yet to come according to doctor / experts. Because once the unfortunate but very likely peak loss of life, shudders through Financial District of Gotham Central in about two weeks, even the most hardened investor may temporarily retreat.

What’s Buffet say?

Every professional trader/investor/fund understands the case numbers in the US will explode. That is not news. – Garth

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 5:47 pm

@#33
“Of course I work daily from my office. It’s 300 feet from my house”

++++
I probably walked past your hacienda two weeks ago when I was in Lunenburg during the Covid19 Twilight Zone festival…..About 5 people in the entire town on the streets
Nice area.
Next time I’ll be in front of a rented marching band so you know its me….I’ll be the one with the baton and the tall hat.

Will I smell you coming? – Garth

#46 Brian Ripley on 03.31.20 at 5:49 pm

I updated my Employment Earnings charts:
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

Note that the data are JAN 2020 (2 months lag).

A bit of a record occurred in January …. 5 provinces produced new peak highs as well as Canada nationally.

For you Trump fan boys, January was idyllic as tabled by this Twitter post:

Pé @4everNeverTrump

Now the GOP claims impeachment hurt our coronavirus response.

CDC issued a warning on Jan 8.
Trump was acquitted on Feb 5.
He held rallies on Jan 9, Jan 14, Jan 28, Jan 30, Feb 10, Feb 19, Feb 20, Feb 21 & Feb 28.
He golfed on Jan 18, Jan 19, Feb 1, Feb 15, Mar 7 & Mar 8.

7:23 AM · Mar 31, 2020·Twitter for Android 4.8K Retweets 8.3K Likes
Source: https://twitter.com/4everNeverTrump/status/1244993615488675846

#47 Stone on 03.31.20 at 5:53 pm

#42 Stone on 03.31.20 at 5:45 pm
#33 Stone on 03.31.20 at 5:34 pm
When I walked back from the office yesterday…

———

Huh? What? Are you telling me your office was open when you and your employees are the ideal candidates to work from home considering the circumstances?

That’s disappointing.

Even the shills on BNN are working from home.

BNN: 1 Garth: 0

Of course I work daily from my office. It’s 300 feet from my house. Killer commute. – Garth

———

That’s not my point. If you’re going in and not actually seeing clients there, fine. If you do have client meetings face to face, that’s wrong.

Unbelievable. – Garth

———

I completely agree with your last statement.

#48 Leo on 03.31.20 at 5:53 pm

Ya… never ever read the comments. Seriously.

#49 Keith on 03.31.20 at 5:56 pm

Mushroom stocks are like cannabis five years ago.
http://www.shroomstocks.ca. Speculative capital only. O’Leary is in.

SHRM
CODE
LITT
RVV
BOSS
MMED

#50 Attrition on 03.31.20 at 5:56 pm

#41 MF on 03.31.20 at 5:44 pm
…Real estate is dead though. That part you are correct about.
MF

Yup. You said it.

Real estate (as a speculative investment for flippers, a fashionable accessory for the wannabe wealthy, a plank in realtors endless ponzi-scheeming chess games, a tool for money launderers, a haven for undeclared rental income from foreign students who only pay cash, etc) is dead (for a short while) though.

Right on the money, MF.

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 5:57 pm

@#42 Stone
“That’s not my point. If you’re going in and not actually seeing clients there, fine”
+++

People can actually go to work and not receive clients.
I have been working at the office the past 2 weeks and seen no one.
Very productive.

For the record.
Garths office was closed Thursday March 19th at 10 am. Lights were off. No one inside…….unless he saw me coming and hid…..understandable in the circumstances.

The Subway down the street was open. Terrible coffee.

#52 theoryAndPractice on 03.31.20 at 5:57 pm

Any long term commitment will be postponed. This is what Mr virus caused (or used for), along with many other social and economic implications.

#53 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 5:58 pm

#37 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 5:39 pm

Re: Force majeure

Exactly. We’re managing dozens of projects where contractors or owners have claimed this in the last month.

“Claim all you want. No defence here. – Garth”

—————–

Oh, I have no idea if it would work for real estate contracts. Probably not.

Covid has been accepted as force majeure for construction contracts due to it being an “unforeseen and material change affecting the work”.

#54 Penny Henny on 03.31.20 at 5:58 pm

Eeeeeeeeow! What a wild ride.-GT
………….
Well that opening line sure reminded me of this Kia commercial. Welcome to the swamp. Fitting really!
Garth are you a closet Kia lover? (CKL)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjiKv4A-7OY

#55 not 1st on 03.31.20 at 5:59 pm

Gundlach is saying the market will retest and fall through the March lows next month. Both the 2008 and 2001 crashes had a hard second let down in them and they took months to play out. Second chance to go to cash?

You have to admit Garth, people didn’t expect to be investing under these circumstances. Liquid investing has to have one tenet and that’s reasonable vision of stability. That’s out the window.

When Trump extended the lock down to Apr 30th I started to lose hope this can be turned around. There are governor who have extended that to June 1st. I mean people are going to come out of their house arrests in 2 months and see tumbleweeds down the street. How on earth do you restart this thing?

I am thinking the best investment is a vacay property a long ways from civilization.

#56 Nonplused on 03.31.20 at 6:01 pm

Sometime this month (April) I need to move my daughter out of her apartment because her lease is up and she has no idea when classes will resume. But obviously we will have to leave the house and get a trailer to do that. Plus stop for gas along the way.

Interesting a lot of people are still taking their dogs to dog parks because “the dog needs a walk”. But my experience is that dogs do not practice “social distancing”. I’m not to worried that dogs can catch Covid, although there has been at least one reported case, but given that the virus can survive for many hours on a variety of surfaces, isn’t the dog itself a surface? And even if people refrain from petting strange dogs, the dogs themselves do a lot of playing together.

I have also observed a trend on social media where people are posting pictures of their “isolation parties”. Even in the case there are less than 10 people involved, I don’t think that is what the recommendation is.

I imagine this is also screwing with visitation for separated/divorce parents.

My wife and I both work from home, and so far she has been relatively unaffected, but now her firm is asking people to work reduced hours and take vacation. So our family income looks poised to head the same way as my portfolio.

Crazy times indeed. Hopefully this is all just a test and whoever runs the simulation will just set it back to sometime last year.

#57 Buck on 03.31.20 at 6:02 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth!
I’ve been reading your blog for years, finally got the wife to start reading. Luckily I have listened to what you have been trying to pound into peoples heads. I only wished I could have managed to get more of my crew to live within their means, save for that snowy cold day here in alberta. This is a wakeup for many too bad some are going to have suffer, lord knows they woudn’t listen. Now we will have to pay, listen and read about the self inflicted sniveling.
This government and country needs to tear a page from the Taiwan play book to get this country rolling again. Let’s get that Canadian know how fired up.
Don’t just lay there and hope for the best get testing people isolate the sick, enforce isolation. You can’t shut down the country for months for a few. Lets get ahead of the curve.
Things aren’t too bad here hunkered down on a half section. Glad not to be one of those folks trapped in a elevated shoe box with those sticky buttons.

Ry AB

#58 Blacksheep on 03.31.20 at 6:03 pm

I just picked up a $ 10,000 piece of multi use manufacturing equipment (new $40K plus) in excellent condition for $1500 at an action last week. I was expecting to pay about $4000, minimum.

But nobody was bidding.

Sticking with the theme.

I’m thinking about giving a low ball offer on a very nice lake view home in the OK this week. If they bite, I’ll tie it up now with a long possession and flog my place once the Covid fear dissipates and the pent up demand rushes back.

Maybe Shawn was right about that Buffet guy…

#59 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 6:03 pm

Wow, social distancing snowflakes have shamed Garth twice so far on his own blog, without any clue whatsoever about the circumstances.

Amazing self-righteousness on display.

#60 MF on 03.31.20 at 6:04 pm

“Cats rarely bounce over 20%. This give you a nice taste of what is to come, even if a sell-off intervenes. For a dead-cat bounce, the feline must be deceased. This one’s just pissed. – Garth”

-That cat is not pissed, nor dead.. more like on life support and without any brain function since 2008. 100% dependent on greater and greater amounts of stimulus to stay alive.

So here we are, 82 billion $ of stimulus in one week and a faint heart beat after all other organs have failed celebrating.

MF

#61 Felix on 03.31.20 at 6:06 pm

Cats rarely bounce over 20%. This give you a nice taste of what is to come, even if a sell-off intervenes. For a dead-cat bounce, the feline must be deceased. This one’s just pissed. – Garth

Damn right we’re pissed! (And we’ll get even)

Stop using that metaphor!

Take your anti-feline RACISM and shove off!

#62 Leftover on 03.31.20 at 6:08 pm

Jobs recovery will be delayed by $$$ handed out; maybe some of those jobs won’t come back but real problem is a lot of people won’t want to go back over the summer because life is better on the dole.

Some concern over food supply as TFW’s are going to find it tough to get across the border in time for harvest. Perhaps $2,000 a month could be converted to a piece-rate by the bushel? It’s wartime after all.

Landlords are about to get kicked but too much leverage will do that to you. Somewhat the same for small business owners that strip their companies of retained earnings and undermine their LOC.

Banks, utilities and large-caps will all come out okay, sooner rather than later.

Housing? Unemployment, tight credit and rising mortgage rates are a perfect storm. So is pent-up supply, which will skyrocket in a couple of months.

#63 Figure it Out on 03.31.20 at 6:08 pm

” .. a mere global pandemic is no legal excuse for getting out of a real estate contract .. “

It sure as hell is, if you’re a professional with a decent lawyer. “Material Adverse Condition” (MAC) clauses are common in nearly all big money deals, real estate or M&A. But if you let your local real estate board write your contract for you, and your agent convince you to go in with a “clean” offer at your”best” price, you get what you get, and best not be upset.

#64 Blacksheep on 03.31.20 at 6:09 pm

“Every professional trader/investor/fund understands the case numbers in the US will explode. That is not news. – Garth”
———————————-
Just basing my assumption on your constant reminder of how powerful an emotion, fear can be.
———————————-
“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Frank Herbert, Dune

#65 Alex on 03.31.20 at 6:13 pm

Real estate prices in Toronto will resonate around whether the banks decide to cut Large swaths of their work force based on economic activity and their own profits .Those valuations will go hand with what near future financial tremors That will manifest over the next few months. Toronto real estate is Canadas banking capital and a international city that’s dependent on a strong world economy. With less banking sector jobs potentially being cut Toronto could be in for a hard landing.

#66 Sold Out on 03.31.20 at 6:13 pm

From the Guardian

“¥¥British banks scrap dividends and bonuses
Britain’s biggest banks have agreed to scrap payouts to shareholders and are expected not to pay out any bonuses to senior staff, after a request from the Bank of England.

The Prudential Regulation Authority, which is part of the Bank, said Standard Chartered, NatWest, Santander, the Royal Bank of Scotland, Nationwide, Lloyds, HSBC and Barclays have all agreed to drop their dividends and share buybacks until the end of the year, and cancel outstanding dividends from 2019.

It comes as the UK prepares for a potential recession. The PRA said that the decision is a “sensible precautionary step given the unique role that banks need to play in supporting the wider economy through a period of economic disruption”.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Are we going to see similar measures here?

#67 Marco on 03.31.20 at 6:14 pm

And I hope Freeland will run for Prime Minister in next election and all immigrants will vote en block.
Canada is about French and English and the rests are visitors? Well, we will see about that.

#68 MF on 03.31.20 at 6:15 pm

#40 I’m stupid on 03.31.20 at 5:43 pm

No one from the private sector is working from home?

You paid 2 million in taxes. Sounds like you’ve done pretty good so far.

MF

#69 Penny Henny on 03.31.20 at 6:15 pm

#22 Paully on 03.31.20 at 5:13 pm
I’m thinking about picking up a killer deal on a lightly used luxury vehicle from a non-performing real estate agent some time this fall. There should be lots of repo deals!
/////////////

FAIL!!!
First of all if people can no longer afford their car payments do you think that there is any chance they have been keeping up with the scheduled maintenance?
Secondly Realtors have cooties, yuch!

#70 Alex on 03.31.20 at 6:16 pm

Real estate prices in Toronto will resonate around whether the banks decide to cut Large swaths of their work force based on economic activity and their own profits .Those valuations will go hand with what near future financial tremors that will manifest over the next few months. Toronto real estate is Canadas banking capital and a international city that’s dependent on a strong world economy. With less banking sector jobs potentially being cut Toronto real estate prices could be in for a hard landing.

#71 Wrk.dover on 03.31.20 at 6:16 pm

So they made their quarter, look the best they could, Fed print cash influx and all.

Now watch the rest of the week closely.

Will they ring the opening bell from the rail of the 70,000 ambulance moored at the foot of Wall Street?

#72 Figure it Out on 03.31.20 at 6:17 pm

“If oil is headed down, then how come oil related stocks like Suncor and CNRL are like sooo up today???”

Jason Kenney said “if he can buy a pipeline, I can buy a pipeline.”

#73 Penny Henny on 03.31.20 at 6:19 pm

Of course I work daily from my office. It’s 300 feet from my house. Killer commute. – Garth
/////////

TMI.
Too easy to find your home base now.

#74 BS on 03.31.20 at 6:24 pm

#25 Zed on 03.31.20 at 5:15 pm
Garth,

Why would this crisis affect RE when the great recession did not have a real effect then, other than maybe -10% value for 4-6 months?

Did you think that so many jobs will just not come back?

The governments are throwing so much money at the economy/individuals that the money is still around.

No showings, no sales. No sales, no market. Price drops next. – Garth

The starting point of the great recession was different. Today there is way more debt and a way bigger housing bubble. Unemployment is expected to be worse this time around. Foreign buyers will be selling not buying. And the biggest factor during the great recession mortgage rates were cut in half. Mortgage rates are not going any lower this time. In fact they are currently going higher and credit has tightened. Expect a 50% hair cut in YVR and YYZ as a best case scenario.

#75 Jager on 03.31.20 at 6:25 pm

Much of this buying is due to the Fed boosting large caps. The Bond market is telling a different story and Oil is still in purgatory facing a potentially lengthy purification.

Unemployment? let’s not go there.

Yes. The VIX is trending down but many analysts want to see 40 (or lower) for a solid week before any formation of a possible bottom.

Note: The debt bubble has now been painfully blown into a supergiant to keep the show on the road. At least for a while…

#76 Opportunity on 03.31.20 at 6:26 pm

Garth,

I read your articles every day. For the response, I only read your replies because I think most of the responses are from people little intelligent comment.

#77 oh bouy on 03.31.20 at 6:26 pm

@#47 Stone on 03.31.20 at 5:53 pm
#42 Stone on 03.31.20 at 5:45 pm
#33 Stone on 03.31.20 at 5:34 pm
When I walked back from the office yesterday…

———

Huh? What? Are you telling me your office was open when you and your employees are the ideal candidates to work from home considering the circumstances?

That’s disappointing.

Even the shills on BNN are working from home.

BNN: 1 Garth: 0

Of course I work daily from my office. It’s 300 feet from my house. Killer commute. – Garth

———

That’s not my point. If you’re going in and not actually seeing clients there, fine. If you do have client meetings face to face, that’s wrong.

Unbelievable. – Garth

———

I completely agree with your last statement.

____________________________________

lol, stone you are a next-level troll

#78 Asterix1 on 03.31.20 at 6:27 pm

Bankers are cute! Talking about a V shape recovery!

Cant blame them for trying, it’s their job to get you to spend more on stuff that you cant afford.

I have the feeling this will be a L shape stagnant mess for a while. Too much $ left the markets, RE will go down, less jobs (many wont comeback), no savings, more debt, more stress all over the place.

Economy was already heading down before this mess started. Yes, lots of cash is getting pumped into the system, that does change many things. But, I still get the feeling this will be a L shape stagnation period.

#79 Leo on 03.31.20 at 6:28 pm

Kenny spends 1.1 billion on Keystone XL… so we can ship more oil at below market price to the US….
All while he is laying off health care and education workers and cutting medical budgets… what a POS.

#80 Steve French on 03.31.20 at 6:28 pm

Current status of (broadly) B&D, home-made ETF portfolio since 20 January:

Minus 12.9%

Not great- but I’m still sleeping fine.

#81 Poor Dorothy on 03.31.20 at 6:29 pm

I am really sorry to hear about Dorothy. I feel for her, sometimes reading this blog is far from interesting and entertaining. Although today takes the cake
Some women telling you to walk 6 feet away from your wife, I guess her and her husband sleep in separate beds.
As far as going to work, go for it. People like sticking their noses where they don’t belong.

I laughed at your comment on the dead cat bounce.

I wish I had your confidence with the market
As far as housing it’s worrisome as well.
Now moving onto oil
So we are back to 1970s prices. I guess they lost money producing oil back then as well.

If someone can explain to me about oil it’s a commodity right? So it should be a supply and demand thing, yes I am naive. So why in the 90s were we saying peak oil and it’s over $100 and now 30 years later we have so much oil and it’s 20 dollars And Russia can produce at $20 so why can’t Canada? I mean really oil consumption has dropped what 20 percent. So why did oil drop so much.

Every one take a deep breath look out the window life is precious. Here’s what I saw today a humming bird, a bald eagle and Robins. A glorious day!

#82 Steven Rowlandson on 03.31.20 at 6:32 pm

Play it again.
https://youtu.be/VScSEXRwUqQ

#83 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.31.20 at 6:33 pm

“Social Distance Warriors”? I’m stealing that one. Soon it’ll be world famous. Let’s talk about royalties.

@Dorothy- NEVER read the comments. Ever. There’s way too many emotional “think of the children” arguments here at times like these.

(Hope I’m picking the right “side”).

#84 Drinking on 03.31.20 at 6:37 pm

#33 Stone

I actually feel sorry for you! Nobody I know is as clueless as you are!

#85 CL on 03.31.20 at 6:39 pm

Socialism in Canada on the way!!

#86 Leftover on 03.31.20 at 6:43 pm

#66 Sold Out….

Re UK bank dividend suspensions, those banks still owe the Exchequer a lot of £££ since the GFC bailouts.
Not the same as here at all.

#87 the Jaguar on 03.31.20 at 6:44 pm

Yes, the current state of oil & gas isn’t great, however this is what one of the most respected scientists anywhere has to say about the future of fossil fuels:
“Some environmental groups assert that it will be relatively easy to swap out fossil fuels for renewable energy—wind, solar, biomass, biofuels and geothermal energy. That is unlikely given the scale of such a transition. Renewable energy can certainly be scaled up a lot, along with geothermal energy for heating and cooling, but we will likely need fossil fuels for decades to come as we make the transition.That’s because solar and wind are intermittent, on an hourly and seasonal basis, and the energy they produce – electricity – makes up only 17 per cent of current delivered energy in Canada.They need to be backed up by dispatchable sources like natural gas, or with storage, to provide reliable power. Solar and wind now provide less than 5 per cent of Canada’s electricity generation, and much less of total delivered energy.” –David Hughes is an earth scientist and author of ‘Canada’s Energy Outlook: current realities and implications for a carbon-constrained future.
Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan are the ‘sunniest” in the country and Warren Buffett is part of a 200 million dollar plan to build a wind farm in southern Alberta where we already have a significant number.
Seems like we have the bases covered to keep the lights and heat on in Alberta. If others think the world can run without fossil fuels they are entitled to their opinion. But it isn’t just about cute little electric cars. It’s the bigger infrastructure of what powers electricity, what moves farm machinery ( your food source) and tankers that bring everything you need to survive in your life from far away countries, and oh yeah….it’s about what powers the machines that dig minerals like lithium out of the earth so Tesla can build those electric cars and you can talk all day on your cell phone. It’s the inter-connectivity of all these things and their relationship to fossil fuels. The smart money is already considering where to place their resources and plan strategically for the future which will not resemble the world pre- Covid-19 crisis.

#88 Another Deckchair on 03.31.20 at 6:47 pm

@BillyBob from yesterday

Another reason why oil’s not going to disappear shortly – people love helium for their floaty balloons and the odd MRI that saves lives. It comes out when oil wells are drilled.

Oh, (a bonus bit) and hydrogen for clean energy, “the exhaust is water!” cars, etc, it’s easiest to get from burning natural gas in a process called steam reforming; IIRC about 30-40% less energy used than when using electrolysis.

I learned about the hydrogen source from the NASA Shuttle when it started flying, NASA did not push the source of their hydrogen as much as “it’s water!” trail.

#89 Trojan House on 03.31.20 at 6:48 pm

Social Distance Warriors – ha ha! That’s funny! Apparently there is a lot of them commenting on this blog. I had a run in with one of them today at Costco. Told me I was standing too close to her. I just laughed her off…

In other news, get ready for the April fool’s joke – the carbon tax goes from $20 a tonne to $30 per tonne tomorrow. And MPs salaries are set to increase as well.

#90 Lahdeedah on 03.31.20 at 6:49 pm

#29 Howard on 03.31.20 at 5:24 pm

Yep, that’s very telling. Lots of people buying condos these days to be landlords. Wonder how many are AirBnBs. Seems like such a tenuous ‘business’ to be in. Better to get long-term tenants and lock it in. However, with today’s condo prices, there’s less profit margin in longer-term rentals. Can’t make as large a profit with longer-term as with short-term. Looks like our long-term rental unit shortage just got solved.

#91 crazyfox on 03.31.20 at 6:50 pm

“We’ve had the shock and awe. The institutions are buying again. Consumer sentiment may start to improve. The bounce is technical. The market is pricing in a “V’ shaped recovery. Everybody wants one.”

Ah, exuberance. Confidence. Technical! Lots of cash on the sidelines waiting to jump in! FOMO! Is this sucker better or worse than the GFC? Mr. market says better? What do dogs think, better or worse.

I will remind, Mr. market’s reputation for sentient augury back in January well, sucked. And, we are betting on one horse with a wobbled real estate bubble propped up by, wait for it, $20 oil and another horse that is playing catch up in every sense of the word (lots of states in 15 to 20% case growth) heading into an earnings season that won’t be pretty. Government bailouts are fine if we think its all free money (free answer: its not). With Trump, what’s not to trust, I’m sure there will be plenty of oversight watching over how all that “free money” is spent:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

#92 JP on 03.31.20 at 6:51 pm

Alberta housing is toast if SA and Russia don’t start playing nice soon. Edmonton Journal headline: ”COVID-19: Nearly 60 per cent of Albertans $200 or less from being broke: Poll“

#93 Fishie on 03.31.20 at 6:51 pm

Garth,
Could this be the window of opportunity (or necessity) to higher interest rates? The obvious thought would be that they have to stay low to stimulate the economy back into health, but it’s complicated.

#94 Flop... on 03.31.20 at 6:53 pm

Flop’s Corona Virus Song Of The Day.

Def Leppard.

Hysteria…

M45BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yMzyleT2FqY

A snippet.

Oh, I get hysterical, hysteria
Oh can you feel it, do you believe it?
It’s such a magical mysteria
When you get that feelin’, better start believin’
‘Cause it’s a miracle, oh say you will, ooh babe
Hysteria when you’re near.

#95 Howard on 03.31.20 at 6:55 pm

Another day, another Fed liquidity scheme!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-will-launch-new-lending-facility-for-foreign-central-banks-11585657885

The Federal Reserve said Tuesday it would launch a temporary lending facility that for the first time will allow foreign central banks to convert their holdings of Treasury securities into dollars, its latest bid to alleviate strains in global markets.

I’m no economist but apparently this means two things:

– foreign central banks can temporarily exchange treasuries for eurodollars, which means they won’t have to sell them outright; the Fed wants to prevent foreign treasury holders from selling because that pushes up yields/interest rates

– more eurodollar liquidity into the system, thereby weakening the USD, exactly as Trump has been shouting for for years

It’s fascinating to witness the creativity of the Fed to come up with completely new procedures and strategies almost daily in order to keep a lid on interest rates. Good subject for a book someday – paging Michael Lewis.

#96 Drinking on 03.31.20 at 6:56 pm

#76 the Jaguar

I always enjoy your posts; you are well informed, logical and fair.

My biggest beef is that many people do not realize on what it takes to keep people alive in extreme temperatures. In the Western Prairies when when we had the extreme cold temps the first things to fail on our grid were the alternative energies.

I am all for finding new ways but people need to realize that it takes a great amount of money to do so. The Prairies have done remarkable work but it just seems to slip through the “headlines” and people like “Stone” just love to post the most negative although he/she have enjoyed a lifetime of living off of oil and gas. Do me a favor and ask this person what he/she drives, how they heat there home or basement suite; the computer they use was generated from what? You are bright, you know the rest! I just could not be bothered arguing with these hypocrites! Thanks for your post!

#97 I ... on 03.31.20 at 6:57 pm

cut my lawn today in the sunshine out here in the LM. Daffs are in full bloom and the cherry trees are next. Get a grip …

#98 Figmund Sreud on 03.31.20 at 6:58 pm

Way worse in Calgary and Edmonton, of course, …
___________________________________

Huh? ICYMI, … we, shirtizens of Kenneystan and TC Energy Corp. – together – are proceeding with TC’s $8-billion Keystone XL pipeline!

We, the most-tar-sands-blessed jurisdiction, are providing a financial backing, … pushing this overly-stalled pipeline project forward, amid a current global oil market collapse! Yes, …

Yes, indeed, … we – right about immediately – are investing $1.1 billion in Keystone XL and, … further, … backing fully TC’s $4.2-billion credit facility! It’s all true, …

Shovels in the ground by tomorrow, I hear!

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, AB.

#99 Dave on 03.31.20 at 6:59 pm

Wall Street indicating a return to normal ie a V shaped recovery vs Main Street only beginning to suffer. Are we not just in the bull trap phase of this chart… this looks like the start of about every other bursted bubble chart I’ve seen.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4140975-investors-cant-ignore-this-clear-sign-of-stock-market-bubble

#100 foolrally on 03.31.20 at 7:00 pm

“But lately it’s zipped back up an impressive 22%.”

more recently due to large funds doing Q1 rebalancing. let the wild ride begin.

#101 Alberta Ed on 03.31.20 at 7:01 pm

On the bright side, I just read that Justin is coughing up $2.5 million from his rainy day fund (hidden behind the wine rack in Chateau Bill’s cellar) so folks in the north can go back on the land to avoid the corona virus.

#102 Attrition on 03.31.20 at 7:04 pm

#78 Leo on 03.31.20 at 6:28 pm

Kenny spends 1.1 billion on Keystone XL… so we can ship more oil at below market price to the US….
All while he is laying off health care and education workers and cutting medical budgets… what a POS.

Ignorance may be bliss to write, but man it’s painful to read sometimes.

Leo, you realize that without having been able to ship oil there would be no health care and education workers or medical budgets in Alta, right? That place would be a flat icy and wind whipped grassland for malnourished bison.

And you realize that by the time the pipeline comes online, oil prices will probably be at least double what they are now?

And, you understand that the great adage of ‘buy low, sell high’ applies to government investments, too?

Or do you think Alta was built on pixie dust, ground unicorn horns, and gender-neutral declaration forms?

#103 willworkforpickles on 03.31.20 at 7:06 pm

Conspiracy? Experimentation? It could be… IMO
Trump announced today a potential 100,000 to 240,000 Corona virus deaths….A deliberate overestimation combination cover-up? It wouldn’t surprise me.
First-lockdown the country…Done. Then, sign trillions of dollars in aid packages into law…Done. Next, wait for the outcome and watch the fatalities fall far short of the current projection…We’ll see.
That’s the experiment. If it turns out that way, then… Mission Accomplished.
Instead of letting this virus run its usual course the way the flu has previously, taking an average 50,000 American lives each year…use the basis of this lockdown and the low number of deaths (yet to be tallied) to enforce future lockdowns citing the lower death rate here for taking such measures and there you have it. The US government answer they can and will use to justify piling on more debt again and again to sidestep the runaway future debt bomb issue with no regard for its eventual fall-out.
How much of these current and future cash infusions will the average working man and small business man see…I’d say … very little of it overall before the whole house of cards of national debt crashes in.

#104 Lahdeedah on 03.31.20 at 7:07 pm

#86 the Jaguar on 03.31.20 at 6:44 pm

Iceland is nearly 100% sustainable energy-powered – 30% from geothermal, and the rest from dams (they have a lot of waterfalls).

I was there last fall. It gets cold there. Nobody was freezing their butts off. It’s very doable.

Don’t forget that with solar, you can bank the energy over the high months.

And who says we can’t go into business building the world’s supply of solar panels and wind turbines? In addition to planting some of that on our expansive prairies.

One Hot Island: Iceland’s Renewable Geothermal Power
Iceland goes green by tapping the power of the planet
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/iceland-geothermal-power/

#105 Ultraman on 03.31.20 at 7:08 pm

Father Brown would have already find the source of that virus.

#106 Smoking Girl on 03.31.20 at 7:09 pm

The Coronahoax has all the earmarks of a psyop.

Simulation experts like Dr. Colleen Brown create panic in the media while crickets are heard at local hospitals. No one is dying in the hospitals. It’s a plan to enforce Marshall law using the government to steal our freedoms.

Just like nine-eleven when virtually the whole political establishment lied to us, we must recognize that we’re ruled by liars and traitors. Virtually every participant in the panic game, including Trump, is a traitor. But why is this news?

#107 akashic record on 03.31.20 at 7:10 pm

Cats rarely bounce over 20%.

Rarely, like several trillion dollars worldwide “stimulus” in weeks.

#108 Gooblygoo on 03.31.20 at 7:16 pm

Can Trump succeed in doing what Lincoln and Kennedy tried but could not do….. bye bye Fed or bye bye Trump….. i hope its the latter.
Cov ID 2019 just might do the trick.

#109 Flop... on 03.31.20 at 7:20 pm

I looked at my Stephen Harper signed citizenship certificate to read the fine print, to see if I have to work during a pandemic.

No mention.

Self-employed bee.

No honey, no money.

I will continue to work.

I have already paid my rent for April…

M45BC

GLOBAL COVID-19 LOCKDOWN TRACKER.

Visualize the current state of COVID-19 lockdowns around the globe as it unfolds.

https://auravision.ai/covid19-lockdown-tracker/

#110 not 1st on 03.31.20 at 7:28 pm

Ontario already flirting with a shut down all the way to Canada day. All public events in TO cancelled.

Garth, you know the economy cant survive that.

#111 just say no on 03.31.20 at 7:31 pm

All this time I thought Canada was made up of lotto 649 millionaires, boy I feel stupid….. looks like we will be getting to rent nice condos for maybe 1,000.00 month? Since the income does not meet the rent? Rich investors need tenants and won’t reduce selling price and must collect something? Renters refusing to pay? And for buying,who wants to stretch for unrealist values- “Wild” has just made my day.

#112 Nonplused on 03.31.20 at 7:32 pm

#78 Leo

If a $1.1 billion investment can get Keystone going, down the line it will return far more money to pay healthcare and education workers. You can’t put the cart before the horse. Oil will not stay at $20 forever, and when it comes back to say something more like $60, having another 800,000 bbl/day will fund a lot of jobs, including teachers. Teachers do not fund themselves.

#113 wallflower on 03.31.20 at 7:34 pm

I totally know someone who just backed out of their deal.
And technically, they did not have to. But they took advantage of a clause and said, Sai YA nara.
Next year, maybe, after the crash. They are currently renting after having sold over a year ago.

Negating a deal because a condition was not fulfilled is not the issue at hand. That’s normal practice. Vacating a contract because of regret is another matter. – Garth

#114 Midnights on 03.31.20 at 7:34 pm

A change is a coming…
https://apnews.com/c407ecb931c6c528b4cceb0ecc216f0c

#115 KoniJr on 03.31.20 at 7:40 pm

This is the garbage RE cartel are pushing in Alberta now!

“We can do 100% financing! This could be your chance to own. It’s a buyers market. Take advantage now, before it’s too late! What you need; ◾️Good credit ◾️ Full time job If you’re looking for the opportunity to get into a home and you can’t afford the down payment, then now is the time to act.”

The desperation is mind blowing, this is going to get real ugly.

#116 Jager on 03.31.20 at 7:40 pm

#80 Poor Dorothy on 03.31.20 at 6:29 pm

“If someone can explain to me about oil it’s a commodity right?”

Yes.

Hope this helps…
“So it should be a supply and demand thing”

By and large yes. However price manipulation also occurs due to the futures market etc.

“So why in the 90s were we saying peak oil”

Peak oil is based on the underlying principle of a finite resource in short supply. It is finite however the supply is enormous when its true origin is understood.

“it’s over $100 and now 30 years later we have so much oil and it’s 20 dollars And Russia can produce at $20 so why can’t Canada?”

WTI intermediate currently sells for about $22/23 per barrel.
Largely extraction methods. Some are more or less costly. Further Russia can aleviate some of the losses via the ruble and currency markets.

“I mean really oil consumption has dropped what 20 percent. So why did oil drop so much.”

It’s dropped much more. Less demand due to economic contraction, Wuflu etc. Further and more importantly Saudi Arabia and Russia are pumping oil into a decreasing market to drive U.S. shale producers (a newer type of extraction process) into bankruptcy. Some will but shale will prevail.

#117 Treasure Island CEO - 345.44 Troy Ounces of Gold Within Bicycle Distance on 03.31.20 at 7:41 pm

The housing market is frozen like most everything else.

Show me a listing on the West Coast going at a discount to the insane prices of 3 months ago – none!

House prices take time to adjust.

The real data that will be worthwhile is what is the job damage after businesses reopen? If we are still at 9+% unemployment after business is back to normal then f me sideways – it’s over. If not, things should come back.

BUT, I expect like all good employers to never bring back what they call all the dead weight they have been wanting to clean out as well as take actions to become more efficient aka reduce staff and have any remaining staff increase workload to cover for the reduction in employees. Same stuff happened in 2008.

Anyone needing to sell anything do it now. The next few months cash will be in the hands of consumers thanks to Trudeau. After that, if no jobs are back good luck selling anything.

And this (around summer time) is where the real price drops on real estate will occur.

Anyone renewing their mortgage or having to sell in the next 2 years will be in the high risk category – as in losing 50% or more. This number will go down with time if things ever get back to normal.

But let’s be real. WWIII has already started.

#118 Jager on 03.31.20 at 7:43 pm

Attention Maestro,
Please delete the previous mirror post. It contains a cut/paste typo. Thanks!
—————-////——————-

#80 Poor Dorothy on 03.31.20 at 6:29 pm

“If someone can explain to me about oil it’s a commodity right?”

Yes.

“So it should be a supply and demand thing”

By and large yes. However price manipulation also occurs due to the futures market etc.

“So why in the 90s were we saying peak oil”

Peak oil is based on the underlying principle of a finite resource in short supply. It is finite however the supply is enormous when its true origin is understood.

“it’s over $100 and now 30 years later we have so much oil and it’s 20 dollars And Russia can produce at $20 so why can’t Canada?”

WTI intermediate currently sells for about $22/23 per barrel.
Largely extraction methods. Some are more or less costly. Further Russia can aleviate some of the losses via the ruble and currency markets.

“I mean really oil consumption has dropped what 20 percent. So why did oil drop so much.”

It’s dropped much more. Less demand due to economic contraction, Wuflu etc. Further and more importantly Saudi Arabia and Russia are pumping oil into a decreasing market to drive U.S. shale producers (a newer type of extraction process) into bankruptcy. Some will but shale will prevail.

Hope this helps…

#119 Drinking on 03.31.20 at 7:51 pm

North Korea of Canada. All of you that have cottages dating back generations; well equipped, will not socialize with anyone besides your family, paid the taxes to the community for in some cases over 75 yrs, this is what Canada has become. Sigh!!!!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/albertans-stay-home-covid19-1.5516316

#120 WUL on 03.31.20 at 7:57 pm

#78 Leo on 03.31.20 at 6:28 pm
Kenny spends 1.1 billion on Keystone XL… so we can ship more oil at below market price to the US….
All while he is laying off health care and education workers and cutting medical budgets… what a POS.

****

Shipping at a loss.

He’s worse than what you called him.

#121 kc on 03.31.20 at 8:04 pm

Serious question ….

Anyone here work at a major lottery center and can answer me why I can’t advance buy my sets of numbers that I have played for years? usually buy 4 draws in advance at a time.

I have asked the girls at the gas station and they say that the lotteries might be shutting down? is there any truth to this? and if so… I thought the lotto max and 6/49 were cash cows for the government.

thanks

#122 Blog Bunny on 03.31.20 at 8:07 pm

Anybody selling into this rally ?

#123 ronh on 03.31.20 at 8:08 pm

#67 Marco “And I hope Freeland will run for Prime Minister”. She is the PM, Rhodes Scholar. PT is not.

#124 Faron on 03.31.20 at 8:11 pm

The markets will respond to big news or unforeseen events be they positive or negative. Think about it, when is the last time you looked at the news and were surprised? Yeah, late Feb? Maybe again when you got locked down mid March?

At this point, there’s not much new news so the markets are responding by looking at valuations in light of likely eventual improvement and seeing bargains everywhere. The market shrugged (or had already priced in) off huge new unemployed numbers out of the US; they are shrugging off (or have already priced in) rising deaths/infections in the US; the CDN market is shrugging off (or has already priced in) gutter oil prices.

However, maybe this is just the free-fall when everything feels weightless despite impending doom as we crash back to earth. We are all locked into our homes either working from home or performing an essential service or jobless and negotiating that bureaucracy. Days run together with no distinction. Major corporations are propped up with infinite credit. Your local mom and pops businesses are probably dropping like flies but that’s never going to make the news. Essentially, for the time being, many are numbed out. So what would the flies in the ointment be (however unlikely they are)?

–Something comes in that makes the fact of the pandemic really hit home. Just today I found out a friend of my sister’s has COVID. It’s one degree less removed from me now. Maybe this will happen to many soon? Maybe ongoing virus growth causes greater restrictions on people thus further squeezing the economy?

–Housing market panic due to defaults or FOSL (fear of selling low) or fear of underwaterness or flood of supply from speculators. I could see a new wave of fear from that. If housing goes crunch (which would mean consumer credit going crunch as well) just as oil companies debt gets downgraded and smaller players begin to default, you could see a hiccup from the banks that may be unnerving.

–Some kind of new supply shock due to the virus like a food spike or any other kind of upward pressure on consumer staple prices. Sick-outs or other labour protest.

–Public unrest as people get fed up with loneliness.

–geopolitical tomfoolery. N. Korea does something silly. Or a major cyber attack comes when the global west is weak. (reaching here).

Something doesn’t sit right with me. It’s hard to see a sharp V event when the impacts are massive so-far and still developing. Seems equal weight that something bad is lurking or good news/no news is all that’s left here.

#125 Terry on 03.31.20 at 8:13 pm

I can see that the markets will recover over time. This is NOT the end of the world. As for people…….everyone will have to come to the conclusion on their own to abandon their fear and anxiety, accept their own mortality, stop watching the news and get busy living or get busy dying. We are only deferring the extent of this viral infection by locking everyone down. When we all return to work and the flu season hits this winter along with Covid-19 re-emerging again with all it’s variants and changes are we going to lock everything down again? I don’t think so. We either find a vaccine for this virus, very unlikely, or develop herd immunity against it. This is the only way those most susceptible to it are going to get the best protection. Modern medicine and drugs created an imbalance in nature………..Mother Nature is counter balancing that imbalance. I think we should all just get on with our lives.

#126 rknusa on 03.31.20 at 8:15 pm

I am still seeing many houses listed on realtor.ca that are listed at the beginning of the week and gone a few days later

listed prices are higher than ever too

seems like Canada is still a housing superpower to me

#127 Jay on 03.31.20 at 8:18 pm

RE values will never decline unless mortgage eligibility rules are directly tied to CRA’ s income confirmation of an applicant. Or unless rates increase
After the virus, homes(not condos) will become more valuable to buyers.

#128 IHCTD9 on 03.31.20 at 8:23 pm

#56 Nonplused on 03.31.20 at 6:01 pm

…but now her firm is asking people to work reduced hours and take vacation. So our family income looks poised to head the same way as my portfolio.
——-

Welcome to the club.

I’ve been lovin’ it so far. Raking is done, doing some tree maintenance. Tomorrow I’ll sharpen the mower blades, put the battery back in, change the oil and filter etc…

Going to redo my driveway too, just have to wait for the spring load restrictions to end before I can get the dump trucks into the bunker complex.

IMHO, you both should enjoy any time off you have – the years ahead bring the fallout of this incandescent government debt mushroom cloud, and the relentless attempts to finance same thru taxation. I probably won’t be reading the news then either. We asked for it with this guy, and we are damned sure going to get it.

Be glad you’re not one of these blockheads who mortgaged every dollar they’d ever make for 25 years to own some dump shack in YVR/GTA.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 8:24 pm

@#59 Sail Away
“Wow, social distancing snowflakes…..”

+++++

I melt snowflakes…..

#130 Howard on 03.31.20 at 8:30 pm

#103 Lahdeedah on 03.31.20 at 7:07 pm
#86 the Jaguar on 03.31.20 at 6:44 pm

Iceland is nearly 100% sustainable energy-powered – 30% from geothermal, and the rest from dams (they have a lot of waterfalls).

—————————-

Dams are exceptionally destructive to the environment and wreak havoc on aquatic ecosystems. Not “green” in the slightest.

#131 Smartalox on 03.31.20 at 8:33 pm

Some additional thoughts about oil pricing in Canada. The so called ‘Peak Oil’ related to the end of new supplies of so-called ‘conventional’ oil wells, of the type that have been exploited for over 120 years.

Since the turn of this century, the boom has been in extracting oil from less conventional locations, especially where it is embedded in shale (the 2000-2014 North American ‘boom’) that requires fracking to extract.

These more complicated resources take more effort to exploit, and therefore, oil prices have to be higher, to support exploration and drilling.

Once those new supplies came online, and the wells started producing, increased supply reduced prices, and companies stopped developing new wells (and employment for well drillers dried up).

The Oil sands, which have been in production since the 1980s, also had a boom when oil prices were high in the early part of the 21st century. They were also affected by lower prices due to over supply of shale oil that was at least easier to refine than oil sands’ bitumen, so they cut production, and shelved new projects as well, costing more jobs, though different than those lost in well drilling.

Now, the other big global producers are having a ‘race to the bottom’ price war, at the same moment that there is reduced supply due to decreased demand.

The objective is to drive higher cost producers out of the market, in the hope that those producers will be driven out of the market, or, at the very least, will face higher costs to re-enter the market, meaning that the global price of oil will have to get to even higher levels, before competitors have market conditions that make their activities profitable.

#132 Genesis II on 03.31.20 at 8:34 pm

“I have not experienced any of the following symptoms in the last 14 days: fever, dry cough, shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing.”

Hmmm…

I have had ALL those symptoms – mainly due to seeing my portfolio dissintegrate during said period.

#133 sailedaway on 03.31.20 at 8:35 pm

#75 “little intelligent comment.”

or very little English, like you?

#134 sailedaway on 03.31.20 at 8:37 pm

#82 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.31.20 at 6:33 pm

That tongue of yours must be raw from all the licking.

#135 cramar on 03.31.20 at 8:38 pm

Y’all remember the movie “The Big Short” right? In the midst of the 2008 meltdown a few real smart traders, saw it comin’ and reaped a fortune. Well, it was bound to happen again! Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman just made $2.6 Billion in a few weeks by shorting the market.

The more things change, the more things stay the same… or at least repeat.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/investing/short-sellers-market-coronavirus/index.html

#136 sailedaway on 03.31.20 at 8:45 pm

#103 Lahdeedah on 03.31.20 at 7:07 pm

Most of the “hydro” (dumb name for electricity) is produced by nuclear and dams in ON and close to 99% of heating is electric and real hydro in QC. Only gas used in in QC is rural, and for some cooking.

Heating can be done with heat pumps, even in Canada, but enbridge and the ilk don’t want you to know that.

Need to keep jobs for the truck nuts who don’t know what a book is.

#137 joblo on 03.31.20 at 8:47 pm

https://nationalpost.com/news/best-case-scenario-covid-19-measures-expected-to-last-until-july-government-document-says?video_autoplay=true

Insane

#138 oh bouy on 03.31.20 at 8:47 pm

@#103 Lahdeedah on 03.31.20 at 7:07 pm
#86 the Jaguar on 03.31.20 at 6:44 pm

Iceland is nearly 100% sustainable energy-powered – 30% from geothermal, and the rest from dams (they have a lot of waterfalls).

I was there last fall. It gets cold there. Nobody was freezing their butts off. It’s very doable.

Don’t forget that with solar, you can bank the energy over the high months.

And who says we can’t go into business building the world’s supply of solar panels and wind turbines? In addition to planting some of that on our expansive prairies.

One Hot Island: Iceland’s Renewable Geothermal Power
Iceland goes green by tapping the power of the planet
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/iceland-geothermal-power/
_________________________________

icelanders are lucky/unlucky to live atop a giant volcano i guess.

#139 sailedaway on 03.31.20 at 8:50 pm

#116 Treasure Island CEO – 345.44 Troy Ounces of Gold Within Bicycle Distance on 03.31.20 at 7:41 pm

Love the comment about ‘dead weight’ donna from accounts who doesn’t fit in her chair and is drinking her fourth triple/triple and might do 30 minutes of ‘work’ today is going to discover the joys of EI

Not sexist, should also happen to Owen the builder, who still doesn’t know what a computer is and thinks a house is worth 750000 in a culture less tundra. LOL

Omegas fail, alphas rise.

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 8:53 pm

My my my.

Who needs “Carrier Killer” missiles or torpedos…..when you have the flu…..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-navy/sailors-do-not-need-to-die-warns-captain-of-coronavirus-hit-u-s-aircraft-carrier-idUSKBN21I2SV

I wonder how long it will take to disinfect an Aircraft Carrier and all those planes……..

#141 sailedaway on 03.31.20 at 8:54 pm

#125 oh bouy on 03.31.20 at 8:47 pm

Iceland is lucky, like a REAL sovereign nation, to have told creditors to sod off after 2008.

We wouldn’t have the E.D leaders we have in US/UK/CA if we’d done the same.

#142 Mr Canada on 03.31.20 at 9:01 pm

Don’t worry Dorothy, the rational people will get through this just fine. I feel for the folks especially with real estate in Alberta, a barrel of western crude going for less than $5 ??

#143 MDQ on 03.31.20 at 9:07 pm

if you log into zealty.ca and show the sold properties in vancouver in the last 7 days you might be surprised:
1. there are quite a bit of properties that have sold in the past week
2. on average, these are 20% up from property assessments

Can anyone explain this insanity?

#144 Keyboard Smasher on 03.31.20 at 9:18 pm

Some great deals still out there on some great Canadian energy producers with high quality assets and managerial teams that have seen through $20 oil price environment in the past.

Purchased ARX, WCP and Royal Dutch Shell today, thinking of picking up some US industrials next week, wish I had more cash on standby for this.

Plus the Bat flu made Toronto traffic tolerable for the first time since the 90s.

#145 Father Brown... on 03.31.20 at 9:19 pm

…I would have put you down to more of a Doc Martin grumposaurus type

#146 IHCTD9 on 03.31.20 at 9:21 pm

#141 Mr Canada on 03.31.20 at 9:01 pm
Don’t worry Dorothy, the rational people will get through this just fine. I feel for the folks especially with real estate in Alberta, a barrel of western crude going for less than $5
——

The last used, empty barrel I bought (for burning) cost me… 10.00

#147 -=withwings=- on 03.31.20 at 9:22 pm

@don G
Alberta has had $600 Billion in the last 40 years moved into Federal coffers that Norway hasn’t to deal with (Alberta’s pop roughly 2/3rds of Norway’s).

So thoroughly debunked you should be embarrassed for even posting it. How about Alberta charges the same sales tax as Norway (25%+). How much could you have saved in your rainy day fund then? Extrapolate that

********************************

So sales tax is your answer? Let Canada rape us and then add a 25% tax. Debunked? Elaborate on that. You think giving all your money away and then charging sales tax works. YOU should be embarrassed. You ever been to Norway? Sweden? I have. You are the reason that Canada will never ever work again. Your wings will never fly! We are effed!

********************************

NO. If you are going to compare Alberta to Norway you need to compare ALL levels of taxation and not cherry pick random numbers and post complaints about being rich.

Alberta has been the richest province in Canada for many, many years. So they have paid more taxes than, say, PEI. And they hate it! Hate having the highest income (and thus the most per person in income taxes) hate having the richest corporations (and thus more corporate taxes) just hate it! Always crying about their wealth and the taxes generated by it. Save for a rainy day? How DARE you suggest such a thing! Well, I have good news. I am sure in 2020 your taxes paid will go down. A lot. That should make y’all super happy…right?

I don’t know who is more clueless here, Garth or Trump. At least Trump has finally come around to some sensible actions. Garth? Still waiting. Only 0.15% dead! I’ts nothing, really!

Social distancing is the ONLY tool at our disposal for now. And even with draconian measures, it’s not slowing things down enough to keep health resource burdens at reasonable levels.

You can blow it off and see how well the economy does when 20% of those infected are hospitalized, or should be, but are probably dying in the streets instead. Seriously, dude, screw shareholder value for once. Lets get this done, once, and finish it.

#148 Doug in London on 03.31.20 at 9:22 pm

But lately it’s zipped back up an impressive 22%. Mr. Market apparently doesn’t think the world is ending.
————————————————————-
Damn, I was hoping to score some more bargains, paid for with today’s dividends. Having not read all the comments I found the latest episode of Still Standing with Johnny Harris, this time in Mattawa, was enough to cleanse my mind.

#149 Figmund Sreud on 03.31.20 at 9:22 pm

If a $1.1 billion investment can get Keystone going, down the line it will return far more money to pay healthcare and education workers. – #111 Nonplused
__________________

You think? Look, an unrestrained Canadian oil sands production and, … and U.S. shale oil production accelerated drop in global prices since ~2014. Fact. Yet, … yet, both this “unconventional” oils cost much, much more to extract, process – refine into a diminishing amounts of useful fractions, … and require bags and bags of debt financing!

Anyway, … on paper, Alberta – Canada, in fact – has the third-largest resource of oil in the world. In reality, however, ~ 97.4% of proven reserves are of low, low-quality oil sands that are emissions and energy intensive to extract and very, very costly to further upgrade and refine. Vast percentage of it (oh, ~80%) remain unrecoverable, … are too deep for open mining and requires even more energy and resources to access. It’s all true, … but never taken into consideration when arguing future viability.

In addition, invariably, we always extract the highest-quality, least costly to recover deposits first, … which spells – on the longer time scale – that much of remaining oil deposits will cost exponentially far more and more to extract as time passes, … pause and ponder a bit.

Best,

F.S.

#150 Wrk.dover on 03.31.20 at 9:29 pm

I’ve been thinking quite a bit about the wisdom of putting all of your eggs into a military industrial complex basket rather than social healthcare all month.

Then we find out a carrier is just a glorified cruise ship with a runway.

They nearly or do have a dozen of these puppies afloat.

What are the odds of Covid Carrier Part II being announced before the week is done? Plus the submariner episode to follow?

Sad.

#151 Ronaldo on 03.31.20 at 9:35 pm

#89 Lahdeedah on 03.31.20 at 6:49 pm

Looks like our long-term rental unit shortage just got solved.
——————————————————————
Well, the banks and other mortgage companies will own them so depends what they will want for rent. Since banks don’t really want them, they will probably flog them for about 1/2 price. Maybe some big corporation will come in and buy them all up for pennies on the dollar like they did in the US after the GFC. Interesting times ahead.

#152 1255 on 03.31.20 at 9:35 pm

There’s no V shaped recovery or pent up demand. People have lost their jobs and chances are that a lot of them won’t get their jobs back. Others have lost months of income. Demand has been destroyed.

It’s going to take a while to get out this downturn.

#153 The Real Mark on 03.31.20 at 9:40 pm

“#142 MDQ on 03.31.20 at 9:07 pm”

Straight up manipulation or transfers between non-arms length, related entities. There’s so many people associated with RE who are desperate, absolutely and utterly desperate, to portray a completely different narrative than reality.

#154 Drinking on 03.31.20 at 9:43 pm

#142 MDQ

Really?? You need to ask, Cannot say anymore cause Garth would ban me! Each person can decide to there utmost respected educational platforms out there! All the best!

#155 Drinking on 03.31.20 at 9:49 pm

Garth this was posted days ago, just letting you know that something is not right in the posting of the posters who responded. :)

#143 Drinking on 03.31.20 at 9:16 pm
#141 Mr Canada

Really??? Almost 8 billion in the world, although we are all trying alternatives are just not up to the demand people expect; especially with all this new technology; instead of criticizing our ideals I wish to hear from the one’s that “REALLY” believe on what is next now that we are re bankrupt; care to pay for our next grocery bill??? Hey, our kids will make the difference, ha, ha,ha! I have no more to say! Ask our elected one’s ha.ha,ha!

#156 not 1st on 03.31.20 at 9:55 pm

Three luxury condo projects in downtown Toronto go into receivership

https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/03/31/three-luxury-condo-projects-in-downtown-toronto-go-into-receivership.html

#157 BC Renovator on 03.31.20 at 9:59 pm

#121 Blog Bunny on 03.31.20 at 8:07 pm
Anybody selling into this rally ?

______

Yes, Cheaper times around the corner

#158 John Ratner on 03.31.20 at 10:02 pm

Garth, not insinuating that you’re suggesting this, but this will not be a V shaped recovery. Granted, the sell-off overreaction has levelled off, the recent upswing in markets has been Q1 rebalancing. Smart money knows this is a bull trap. We’re simply way too early into this for the market to have fully digested a full economic shutdown. The resulting economic & corporate data will be gut-wrenching and I expect the market to react appropriately and test new lows. And seriously, listen to Wall Street, not Bay Street.

#159 Barb on 03.31.20 at 10:10 pm

…and a 6.3 EQ in Idaho today, ~100 mi from Boise.
Felt in W Canada.

Thought it was the grandson trying to get the woodpecker off the roof.

#160 Drinking on 03.31.20 at 10:14 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/idaho-quake-calgary-1.5516990

Live close to the Foothills Hospital; never felt a thing; over the top reporting by the C.B.C.?? Oh, what the ________!

#161 Ok sure on 03.31.20 at 10:35 pm

#136 joblo on 03.31.20 at 8:47 pm
https://nationalpost.com/news/best-case-scenario-covid-19-measures-expected-to-last-until-july-government-document-says?video_autoplay=true

Insane
_—-_———————-

Articles like this seem to be a dime a dozen these days.
All with their own dubious ‘models’
All the so called experts are hedging right now.
A lot of this could, might, may happen worst case scenarios

#162 Last Gasp on 03.31.20 at 10:39 pm

This is not a crash. This is worse. It is a crush.

The black swan formerly known as covid has crushed our portfolios, crushed our jobs, crushed our tax base. Worst of all, it has crushed our futures.

The recent gains in the markets are a classic bear market up bounce. It is not a V recovery but a very drawn out W in vagerated declination wiping down into a vaporizing wrinkle. Each sucessive up bounce will be lower than the previous one. Thus April will be more brutal than March. Fasten your seat belts and keep your barf bags handy as the up and downs will be biblical. However spring is coming and a respite by June should give a pretty good indication where we go from there… diabolical virus be damned.

#163 Awshtin Powerz on 03.31.20 at 10:40 pm

Of course I work daily from my office. It’s 300 feet from my house. Killer commute. – Garth”

Garth, allowing 10 feet elevation per floor, and assuming you work on the 30th floor of one of the gleaming 5 start financial towers, could one logically deduce that you are living in a secret command and control bunker in the underground parking area. This would be around 300 feet from your office?

#164 John in Mtl on 03.31.20 at 10:40 pm

@ #123 Faron on 03.31.20 at 8:11 pm
–geopolitical tomfoolery. N. Korea does something silly. Or a major cyber attack comes when the global west is weak.

#116 Treasure Island CEO – 345.44 Troy Ounces of Gold Within Bicycle Distance on 03.31.20 at 7:41 pm
– But let’s be real. WWIII has already started.

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 8:53 pm
– Who needs “Carrier Killer” missiles or torpedos…..when you have the flu…..

Been wondering if this pandemic is partly (or totally) a diversion of sorts; or something to take advantage of (never let a good crisis go to waste). We know China wants Taiwan and Honk-Kong, badly, among other things brewing in the geopolitical sphere. So they let out a virus, it kills a few 100,000’s of their own people but the CCP don’t care; there’s 1.3 billion more. The virus spreads worldwide and especially destabilises the USA, traditional ally of Taiwan and of “freedom”. Into a few months (april-may), the armed forces are kept busy quelling homeland unrest, and dealing with sickness in their ranks, rendering them pretty much unavailable to help allies much. China moves in, by invasion or attack, and seize what they wanted for so long.

They have all our tech and the means to produce it now, they have a formidable million strong marching army and have tons of all kinds of arms, bombs, missiles, satellites, aircraft, etc. Who knows how much they have stockpiled, they had 20 years to prepare. And prepare they do/did – they are playing the long game and XI Jinping did say publicly that he aims for world power.

The markets? The West and Europe may well be bankrupt by the time the dust settles; if not, our economies will be very seriously impacted in the short term. Long term, as usual, we will pick up the pieces and rebuild. Hopefully on more sane and solid principles and ground.

S**t has been a long time coming, whatever form it might take.

#165 Where's My Money Going To Greedeaus? on 03.31.20 at 11:10 pm

How come I think the pre-emptive usuary from the house/condo insurance companies has something to do with all these class action insurance claims that will permeate the courts in the next 5 years. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/class-action-launched-after-airlines-give-credits-not-refunds-for-cancelled-flights-1.5516156
Maybe they are also in on the world reset….Just a thought. Look at their involvement in the Lehi Utah company that supplied most/all Canadian banks their “money manager” software.
https://craft.co/mx-technologies.
This bank info is sent to the US in Lehi (just down the block from NSA server farm) and perused by the Insurance conglomerate that is behind this company. All, in my opinion, to use against you when you make a claim.
Better not be buying anything unhealthy with your debit /credit card as they now know….
That’s also why they want to get rid of cash, so they can peruse every purchase info to use against you in the future.

#166 PastThePeak on 03.31.20 at 11:12 pm

#60 MF on 03.31.20 at 6:04 pm
“Cats rarely bounce over 20%. This give you a nice taste of what is to come, even if a sell-off intervenes. For a dead-cat bounce, the feline must be deceased. This one’s just pissed. – Garth”

-That cat is not pissed, nor dead.. more like on life support and without any brain function since 2008. 100% dependent on greater and greater amounts of stimulus to stay alive.

So here we are, 82 billion $ of stimulus in one week and a faint heart beat after all other organs have failed celebrating.

MF
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I go away from the blog for a month or so, and when I come back this last week, I see that MF has been abducted by aliens and replaced! Has no one else noticed? Nothing this current MF is saying was like what came from the old MF. Is this Bizarro MF?

I agree with most of what you are saying, new MF.
– Markets are likely to retest or go below the March lows, as the economic impact kicks into high gear. No one knows for sure, but believing anyone thinking that all time highs of Feb are coming back soon are delusional. The market was ahead of itself then. Right now it is just back to slightly overvalued if the virus had never shown up!

– No one is talking about it, but all of this unprecedented debt and money printing is NOT going to be unwound (see last 2 years of history). In fact, it will only grow even after “recovery”. Multi-trillion $ deficits & an expanding Fed balance sheet will continue into the foreseeable future. The US deficit this year is likely to be 3+T$. The debt will hit $30T in a few short years, and $50T before end of the decade.

– The USD, as world reserve currency, can do this for a period of time, but eventually (and it might literally be overnight), the global faith in the dollar will end. That is when financial chaos will really hit the fan.

Read the book “The Mandibles”….

#167 PastThePeak on 03.31.20 at 11:22 pm

#103 Lahdeedah on 03.31.20 at 7:07 pm
#86 the Jaguar on 03.31.20 at 6:44 pm

Iceland is nearly 100% sustainable energy-powered – 30% from geothermal, and the rest from dams (they have a lot of waterfalls).

I was there last fall. It gets cold there. Nobody was freezing their butts off. It’s very doable.

Don’t forget that with solar, you can bank the energy over the high months.

And who says we can’t go into business building the world’s supply of solar panels and wind turbines? In addition to planting some of that on our expansive prairies.

One Hot Island: Iceland’s Renewable Geothermal Power
Iceland goes green by tapping the power of the planet
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/iceland-geothermal-power/
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Did you know the 82% of Canada’s electricity is already produced from non-fossil-fuel sources? Hydro (60%), nuclear (15%) and wind (4-5%) (with a smattering from biomass and solar).

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/nrgsstmprfls/cda-eng.html

Spending billions & billions to add a couple more % points on solar doesn’t seem to be a wise use of money…but then again, most people are not wise…

#168 Bobby on 04.01.20 at 12:09 am

The first lowball offer is always the best. This is going to get ugly real fast. It will be hard to show some sympathy to sellers.
I’ll bet there are also some good deals on Lexus, Audi’s and Merc’s coming very soon.

#169 the Jaguar on 04.01.20 at 12:19 am

@#95 Drinking on 03.31.20 at 6:56 pm

Yes. Even ‘Greta” doesn’t offer any plausible solution or explanation as to how the world will ‘run’ on a fossil fuel shutdown. I am all ears and anticipation. Cannot wait to hear the solid scientific explanations to support killing oil and gas exploration and production. The ‘silence’ is quite deafening because the madness of crowds hasn’t the brains to think through the process. In a strange, bizzare, and totally unanticipated series of events the current crisis is going to change the way we think and act about everything. All bets are off. In no way can any of us predict the outcome, but those who have been paying reasonable attention may have some advantage. Everybody else is destined to a rush to the exits and I cannot pity them based on their behavioural pattern which was well warned. I’ll be watching from my cat bird seat.

#170 will on 04.01.20 at 12:20 am

#5 JSS

If oil is headed down, then how come oil related stocks like Suncor and CNRL are like sooo up today???

it’s because Trump and Putin had a telephone conversation today about oil, among other things.

#171 futures!!!! on 04.01.20 at 12:28 am

For a dead-cat bounce, the feline must be deceased. This one’s just pissed.

…………….

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!

what a mush, never fails

#172 Flop... on 04.01.20 at 12:29 am

2020 : The Movie, sucks so far.

Bunch of bad actors.

Probably only score 13% on Rotten Tomatoes…

M45BC

#173 Not So New guy on 04.01.20 at 12:30 am

Two points:

1. I thought when banksters messed up with reckless lending and needed to be bailed out by central banksters, that shareholders and bondholders had to pay a price? I guess that isn’t the case anymore. So now shareholders and bondholders get bailed out by CBs with a dilution of taxpayer’s dollars and we call it free-market capitalism? So another plank in accountability is pulled from the system…that’s pathetic. The elite have become brazen, cowardly thieves

2. I am looking forward to the day Justin (or more likely his successor) has to stand before all the beliebers and explain to them how the law of diminishing returns works

#174 Notagreaterfool on 04.01.20 at 12:58 am

#21

We have been in a credit bubble. Loose lending. This is why prices are up historically. Should lending tightening up and job losses add up, prices go down.

#175 VicPaul on 04.01.20 at 1:15 am

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 5:38 pm

I golfed in Fox Meadows in PEI a few years back.
The bloody foxes were so tame they were waiting for us golfers on the 10th tee to walk away from our carts so they could steal our hotdogs…..
Bloody bandits.

*********

Same with the crows at Nicklaus North in Whistler! Swoop down, land on the cart seat – a little crow-hop and Bob’s your uncle, your sandwich is flyin’ away! Word.

In the ensuing chaos and rebuilding over the next two years(?), there will be deals to be had for those with cash money…same as it ever was.

M56BC

#176 VicPaul on 04.01.20 at 1:23 am

#121 Blog Bunny on 03.31.20 at 8:07 pm
Anybody selling into this rally ?

*********

And willfully take a 10-20+% haircut with a 15 year investment horizon….why?

M56BC

#177 The Mandrake Mechanism on 04.01.20 at 1:56 am

I’m supposed to attend a music event in Miami late October 2020 – i’m not buying tickets because i think the storm will still have not passed due to cooties and a wiped out balanced portfolio. In the mean time, these are a few of my favorite posts….73, 74, 94, 102, 105, 116, 117….

#178 DON on 04.01.20 at 2:12 am

#142 MDQ on 03.31.20 at 9:07 pm

if you log into zealty.ca and show the sold properties in vancouver in the last 7 days you might be surprised:
1. there are quite a bit of properties that have sold in the past week
2. on average, these are 20% up from property assessments

Can anyone explain this insanity?
***********************

The Greatest of the Greater Fools?
and/or
Underground money still in need of a good washing?

#179 Ronaldo on 04.01.20 at 2:16 am

This is not an April Fool’s joke

https://nationalpost.com/news/best-case-scenario-covid-19-measures-expected-to-last-until-july-government-document-says?video_autoplay=true

#180 SoggyShorts on 04.01.20 at 2:17 am

#4 Oakville Sucks on 03.31.20 at 4:49 pm
When the market crashes 33%, that means it’s got to go up 50% to get back to where it was! Percentage can be very misleading!
——-
Another interesting one is what it would really take to go Depression style -85%

You can’t do it all in one go because they’ll close the markets.
So we’ve had 1x -30%
How many more to go -85%?
Another -30% and
Another -30% and
Another -30% and
Another -30% and
Some more to hit 15% of peak.
And that’s with no ups in-between

#181 SoggyShorts on 04.01.20 at 2:21 am

Question:
When and how do index members and their ETFs rebalance /update?

The s&p 500 is represented by VOO, but what if a few companies go kaput or almost kaput? When would the Index update, and when would VOO update to reflect it? Is there much lag?
My google-fu is weak today

#182 Mlegs on 04.01.20 at 2:35 am

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Annotation-2020-03-29-122539-768×559.jpg

Dead cats don’t typically bounce more than 20%? I beg to differ.

#183 JSK on 04.01.20 at 3:49 am

I lived thought he collapse of USSR. Get comfortable people, and prepare to endure a decade of pain, or as it is known in Russia – regular life.

You have 2 options here. Either the governments and the central banks fail to contain growing resentment in their ability to manage (i.e. cover their own gentle behinds), or they do succeed at overruling reality with synthetic numbers, in which case, say goodbye to your purchasing power and get ready for food rations. Rewarding inactivity? That leads to no good, but without it, half the country will be on the street in a month. So the government does the only thing it can do. The same thing that was tried in the Weimar Republic. Their politicians were also trying to rescue the economy. They had reparation payments, we have the virus and the oil prices. Net result – get USSR collapse express style.

Economy is like a brain deprived of oxygen. 1 minute leads to discomfort, 5 minutes you faint, longer and you don’t reboot at all. Quarantines are a breath holding exercise. And every country has its tolerance.

#184 I’m stupid on 04.01.20 at 6:24 am

#68 MF

I’m not talking about working from home. I’m talking about city, provincial and federal employees who had their department shut down and are no longer working but are still getting full salaries. I’m speaking about fairness, if non working private sector employees that are being forced into unemployment by government policy are being given 2k a month why should unemployed government employees receive full salaries?

#185 BillyBob on 04.01.20 at 6:29 am

It’s nice to see that a global pandemic hasn’t dampened the ardour of the eco-ideologues.

Demand for Alberta oil has been pushed further into the future by the current crisis. It hasn’t gone away. At all. Neither has the need for oil, unless one truly believes we will all just live happily ever after inside forever as we currently. For this and many other reasons, some less quantifiable than others, Alberta will be fine longterm.

The statement that one can “bank the energy” of renewables on the scale that would be required to replace fossil fuel-based energy is just false under current battery storage technology.

Offering Iceland, with a population of a few hundred thousand living in a very unique geography, to suggest that geothermal is “very doable” is just silly in a world of 7 billion. So is suggesting that hydroelectric dams could be the answer in places that don’t have that option. Yes, it works in Iceland. So?

There is presently no other readily-available energy source other than nuclear that has the same calorific value as fossil fuel. That’s neither pro or against renewable energy, that’s just physics.

Unless some hitherto unknown miracle energy or energy-producing process is discovered, we will either need to burn fossil fuel, or roll back civilization to the population levels and quality of life humanity had before its discovery. I know which one the Gretins would choose, but I’m not quite as masochistic myself.

#186 neo on 04.01.20 at 6:59 am

Cats rarely bounce over 20%. This give you a nice taste of what is to come, even if a sell-off intervenes. For a dead-cat bounce, the feline must be deceased. This one’s just pissed. – Garth

Garth,

I believe there was two 20% dead cat bounces on the way to the March 2009 lows. There were also 20% bounces during the Great Depression. You can’t honestly think we can enter a bear market and exit it in the same month. This isn’t 1987 Garth. There is far more going on here.

Never did I say the market declines were over or that this is the beginning of the V. It’s not. I’ve made it clear there are awful virus numbers to come, a 15% jobless rate in the US plus a GDP crash (and maybe the end of Trump). But there is also the certainty of recovery. The market knows that, so big rallies are just as consequential as the expected declines. Best strategies: (a) stay invested and (b) turn off the news. – Garth

#187 Wrk.dover on 04.01.20 at 7:00 am

#164 PastThePeak on 03.31.20 at 11:12 pm

Republican administrations, every LAST time!

#188 oh bouy on 04.01.20 at 7:39 am

@#181 JSK on 04.01.20 at 3:49 am
I lived thought he collapse of USSR. Get comfortable people, and prepare to endure a decade of pain, or as it is known in Russia – regular life.
________________________

LOL

#189 Jager on 04.01.20 at 7:45 am

-Wall Street Journal-

“A Wuhan Writer Takes On China’s Communist Machine and Becomes an Online Star”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-wuhan-writer-rages-against-chinas-communist-machine-and-becomes-an-online-star-11585733403

#190 Tater on 04.01.20 at 7:45 am

#26 Howard on 03.31.20 at 5:19 pm
As mentioned, Trudeau will simply prohibit home sellers from pursuing buyers who cannot close due to job loss.
—————————————————————-

Who’s job loss? If I sell my place and the buyer loses his job, am I off the hook for the place I bought? Why? I can’t close due to a job loss, not mine, but still. Where does the chain break?

All this would do is completely lock up the property market.

#191 Wrk.dover on 04.01.20 at 7:54 am

#164 PastThePeak on 03.31.20 at 11:12 pm.

(I should clarify this is the republican part I refer to)

” The market was ahead of itself then. Right now it is just back to slightly overvalued if the virus had never shown up!”

#192 Mr real mark on 04.01.20 at 7:55 am

The real mark, you are the smartest person here.
Thank you.

#193 Howard on 04.01.20 at 7:59 am

Garth get a load of this.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/03/31/ottawa-eyes-low-interest-lines-of-credit-for-households-battered-by-covid-19.html

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suggested Tuesday that help was on the way for Canadians who may have to take out loans to pay bills as they endure the economic shocks of business closures and unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Those conversations continue with the banks. We’re also looking at ways of easing access to credit for individuals so that they can shift their bank balances and their credit card balances to a lower interest line of credit,” Trudeau said during his daily briefing.

…The outcome of those discussions is not clear yet, but it’s evident from their public comments, that Trudeau and his ministers are pressing financial institutions to make low-interest options available to cash-strapped customers.

And those of us who were responsible, who put money away, who lived within our means, and therefore aren’t “cash-strapped”. What do we get out of this? Do we now have to pay HIGHER rates in order to bail out subprime borrowers who get government mandated preferential treatment? Is that how it works now in this clown world?

#194 Ottawa veteran on 04.01.20 at 8:12 am

Don’t forget that the military just announced it has put the brakes on the Annual Posting Season. There are several hundred service families who get posted each summer, and the military has decided to either delay for several months, or out right cancel the moves.
That’s a lot of lost business for realtors, as pretty well all veterans buying/selling use full priced realtors.

#195 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.20 at 8:20 am

@#181 JSK
“And every country has its tolerance.”
++++

My tolerance just about peaked yesterday when I went to the bank.
15 people line up outside the door.
10 minute wait to get to the front door.
Bank employee pulls out a cue card and starts asking me,
“Have you have any of these symptoms lately’, sweats, fever, dry cough”………. W…T….F….?…… “No”
“Have you been outside the country in the last 14 days?”……………….. “No”
“Have you visited anyone who has been outside…”
Jesus christ!
I JUST WANT TO DEPOSIT A CHEQUE AT THE BANK MACHINE.”

“Oh, you didnt have to wait in this line for that.”

“Perhaps a sign outside informing people of that might have saved me and YOU some time?”

3-6 months of the same inane questions by people without the brains god gave an apple.
Shoot me now.

#196 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.20 at 8:33 am

@#188 Howard
“And those of us who were responsible, who put money away, who lived within our means, and therefore aren’t “cash-strapped”. What do we get out of this? Do we now have to pay HIGHER rates in order to bail out subprime borrowers who get government mandated preferential treatment? Is that how it works now in this clown world?”

+++++

Yep.
sad truth is…..
When this is all said and done ……
When the rising taxes decimate any people who have saved for a rainy day…..
When there is no more money to be fleeced by the rubes in the Carnival tent……
This group of political financial idiots will pack up and move on to their nice , inflation indexed pensions and let someone else deal with the torches and pitchforks mobs……

#197 earthboundmisfit on 04.01.20 at 8:57 am

The suits are going to have a field day (make out like bandits) regarding the applicability of “force majeure”. I suspect they will succeed, if not by legal argument then by legislative fiat. Because Mr. Turner, despite your protestations to the contrary, this time it’s begining to look different, …. very, very different. Best wishes and please keep up the good fight.

Force majeure is no legally valid reason to exit an agreement of purchase & sale for a residential property without penslty. – Garth

#198 JB on 04.01.20 at 9:14 am

#105 Smoking Girl on 03.31.20 at 7:09 pm

The Coronahoax has all the earmarks of a psyop.

Simulation experts like Dr. Colleen Brown create panic in the media while crickets are heard at local hospitals. No one is dying in the hospitals. It’s a plan to enforce Marshall law using the government to steal our freedoms.

Just like nine-eleven when virtually the whole political establishment lied to us, we must recognize that we’re ruled by liars and traitors. Virtually every participant in the panic game, including Trump, is a traitor. But why is this news?
…………………………………………………………………..
Jesus. Smoking Man has expired and gone to dust and in his ashes has risen Smoking Woman?
Damn Smoky you came back as a wacko woman. Are you at least hot?
OK loopy let it rip, lets here some more please.

#199 Smoking Man on 04.01.20 at 9:15 am

105 Smoking Girl on 03.31.20 at 7:09 pm
The Coronahoax has all the earmarks of a psyop.

Simulation experts like Dr. Colleen Brown create panic in the media while crickets are heard at local hospitals. No one is dying in the hospitals. It’s a plan to enforce Marshall law using the government to steal our freedoms.

Just like nine-eleven when virtually the whole political establishment lied to us, we must recognize that we’re ruled by liars and traitors. Virtually every participant in the panic game, including Trump, is a traitor. But why is this news.
,………..

Beats Me.

#200 TurnerNation on 04.01.20 at 9:17 am

A look at the Macro – what the globalists are rolling out worldwide as we speak.

1. Private ownership will be no more. Already in Europe these new “smart cities” decree that all cars shall be
co-owned/crowd shared.

2. No private ownership of homes. If you are a landlord now and your tennants stop paying, you cannot kick them out. So who really owns your home? You or them?
– People are leaning on HELOC, 2nd Mortgages for cash flow. Bank owns say 60-90% of your house anyway. You own what?
– Property taxes surely will rise, the city will eat 3-6% of your home’s value in taxes each year. You are left with which shrinking %?

3. Savers – don’t even think of it. No interest will be paid.
4. Investors? Get ready for capital gains hikes to pay for the socialism

5. Travel restrictions: goes without saying now.
Electric cars have low range, there will be no rural charging stations

6. Government control over food supplies. A ban on foreign workers will shrink output. They will step in.

7. Energy poverty. Natural Gas, Oil are at record lows. We are not allowed it though. No we will be made totally depending upon Government controlled Electricity prices (at record highs), aided by white elephant and boondoggle “Green” energy projects – handed out to Party Faithful.

8. Forcing people off their land and rural areas. Could be done by bankrupt provinces shutting down rural services; or insurers not providing coverage.
Where will everyone be forced too? You know all those small busineses, car dealers, retail stores about to go bankrupt in the cities? That Land will be used for condos.

Look people figure it out. I’m not even an elite and I can see what’s happening. I’m not going to even cover the UBI, handouts, socialism. That’s already here. And we are only WEEKS into this Global rollout. Their plans is going fine

#201 JB on 04.01.20 at 9:17 am

#193 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.01.20 at 8:20 am

@#181 JSK
“And every country has its tolerance.”
++++

My tolerance just about peaked yesterday when I went to the bank.
15 people line up outside the door.
10 minute wait to get to the front door.
Bank employee pulls out a cue card and starts asking me,
“Have you have any of these symptoms lately’, sweats, fever, dry cough”………. W…T….F….?…… “No”
“Have you been outside the country in the last 14 days?”……………….. “No”
“Have you visited anyone who has been outside…”
Jesus christ!
I JUST WANT TO DEPOSIT A CHEQUE AT THE BANK MACHINE.”

“Oh, you didnt have to wait in this line for that.”

“Perhaps a sign outside informing people of that might have saved me and YOU some time?”

3-6 months of the same inane questions by people without the brains god gave an apple.
Shoot me now.
…………………………………………………………..
lmfao
Should have told told them I’m not allowed to talk to strangers and your strange!

#202 Howard on 04.01.20 at 9:18 am

#188 Tater on 04.01.20 at 7:45 am
#26 Howard on 03.31.20 at 5:19 pm
As mentioned, Trudeau will simply prohibit home sellers from pursuing buyers who cannot close due to job loss.
—————————————————————-

Who’s job loss? If I sell my place and the buyer loses his job, am I off the hook for the place I bought? Why? I can’t close due to a job loss, not mine, but still. Where does the chain break?

All this would do is completely lock up the property market.

———————————

Tater you ask a perfectly reasonable, logical question. But, to put it mildly, we have a government and particularly a Prime Minister that do not operate under logic and reason.

#203 Oil on 04.01.20 at 9:36 am

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question on oil

#204 oh bouy on 04.01.20 at 9:37 am

@#183 BillyBob on 04.01.20 at 6:29 am

Demand for Alberta oil has been pushed further into the future by the current crisis. It hasn’t gone away.

________________________________________

there will always be demand for oil, just not the difficult/expensive to extract type. that probably won’t be back in our lifetime.

#205 PastThePeak on 04.01.20 at 9:44 am

#185 Wrk.dover on 04.01.20 at 7:00 am
#164 PastThePeak on 03.31.20 at 11:12 pm

Republican administrations, every LAST time!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=

I did see your clarification, so thanks as I wasn’t thinking it was stock market.

But in any case, the fact is that US financial recklessness is very bi-partisan. In terms of running up debt, it has been every administration. Bush II doubled the debt in his terms, as Obama did in his. Trump will have a bigger 4 year expansion than any other. Lyndon Johnson drove massive spending increases. And in all cases, Congress was (mostly) enthusiastically going along with it.

For stock markets, the dot com boom (ending in bust) was during Clinton’s term. Many recessions & stock market bears in 60s and 70s were across both administrations. The 82 crash was Reagan, but he was fixing what he inherited from Carter. Republicans definitely talk about it more…but actions aren’t much different under the hood.

In the end, outside of some wild cards like Bernie Saunders, Republican and Democrat politicians are bought and paid for by the elites (now led by bankers). Horrible Fed chairs have been both Republican and Democrat. They are all educated at the same places. They all think alike.

#206 Dharma Bum on 04.01.20 at 9:45 am

The origin of this problem is not economic. It is health related. Only the symptoms are economic.

The overriding driver of the symptoms is fear. Human fear and panic. Fear of death. The single biggest flaw of the human psyche. We are aware of our own mortality, and so we react hysterically when faced with the prospect of imminent death. Hysteria leads to irrational behaviour.

The good news, however, is that although we are a horribly weak and flawed species, driven by fear and ruled by stupidity and gullibility, we do have another trait that will ultimately save us. It’s called adaptation. In other words, we will eventually get used to things.

Face it, we’re only going to stay “locked up” and “socially isolated” for so long before we say, screw this. If a higher death rate amongst our pathetic species is the price to be paid, then, so be it. We will simply get used to it. We will ADAPT to a new normal, if that’s the way things are going to have to be.

It may take a bit of time, but we will move on regardless.

A disease will not stop us forever. The brakes may have been slammed on because we were blindsided, but once the fog clears, we will collectively carry on, notwithstanding the possibility that people will get sick more often, and some may even perish from this virus.

Yet, we will come to accept even that. The financial and societal fate of the entire species will not be sacrificed for the sake of saving a few lives and preventing the temporary illness of a small percentage of individuals.

The situation will eventually normalize. Life will go on. People will adapt.

Is everybody out there so ridiculously ignorant to think that that the human race has not experienced numerous major life changing upheavals throughout our existence on this planet?

We adapt and eventually figure out a way to restructure society and our lives to deal with the new situation.

Read a book.

https://courses.lumenlearning.com/culturalanthropology/chapter/human-adaptations/

#207 Mattl on 04.01.20 at 9:59 am

So in summary, housing pooched, yuge unemployment, Canadians are broke yet Mr. Market is expecting a V Based recovery. Makes sense.

I think the last few years have demonstrated Mr. Market is an idiot.

And this crash is going to demonstrate why owning a home – particularly a detached – is an important part of being balanced. Sure wouldn’t want to be renting in a high rise and be fully committed to markets, balanced or otherwise. Because this time it appears to be different.

#208 Deplorable Dude on 04.01.20 at 10:08 am

The ONLY figures that should matter to us right now are # of hospital beds being used, plus forecasts into the next few months. Not deaths, not new cases….BEDS.

That is after-all why the economy has been shutdown…to not overwhelm hospitals.

I can’t find that info anywhere on Gov websites.

I’m not even sure Gov knows these figures? I don’t see them discussed at pressers.

The US has a good website estimating the forthcoming Doom by State. These are the models the US Gov is using.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

However actual realtime data is way under the projections for every state I checked. e.g. yesterday New York was estimated between 37,000-51000 beds used. Actual reported was just over 15000.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

#209 Phylis on 04.01.20 at 10:20 am

#197 Smoking Man on 04.01.20 at 9:15 am Aawwwhhh now you have a follower, how sweet.

#210 rickyspin on 04.01.20 at 10:23 am

Ford is delaying North American production “Indefinitely”

V-shaped recovery in action!

:)

Nobody suggested the V has started. The markets, however, know that it will. Patience. – Garth

#211 Not So New guy on 04.01.20 at 10:29 am

#42 Stone on 03.31.20 at 5:45 pm

That’s not my point. If you’re going in and not actually seeing clients there, fine. If you do have client meetings face to face, that’s wrong.

Unbelievable. – Garth

=================================

It’s not a concern. Garth only starts spitting when he gets mad

#212 45north on 04.01.20 at 10:41 am

RBC says property values will fall. “Surging unemployment and the market’s illiquidity will compel a growing number of tight-squeezed sellers to make price concessions. We think the recovery will come in stages—taking buyers up to a year to regroup and rebuild confidence amid high unemployment. Based on these assumptions, we project home resales to dive by nearly 30% this year in Canada to a 20-year low.”

Me and my neighbours cannot sell our houses. But we don’t care. Except for the guy with a “for sale” sign on his lawn.

I never imagined this crisis. If I had known a year ago, I don’t think I would have done much differently. I cannot see much advantage or disadvantage to Lunenburg Nova Scotia. Nice view of the Atlantic Ocean. You have to drive to Bridgewater for Walmart, but it’s no big deal.

#213 LP on 04.01.20 at 10:42 am

#161 Awshtin Powerz on 03.31.20 at 10:40 pm

Nah…think a little more east of where you’re imagining.

#214 YouKnowWho on 04.01.20 at 10:46 am

And so it begins to make main stream.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-save-grandma-or-save-the-economy-it-depends/

Who do you give the ventilator to?

40 year old person who took care of their body or a 40 year old smoker who made choices to smoke?

40 year old or 80 year old?

What is the value of a life? Is every life same value?

Is a 70 year old same “value” as a 40 year old?

What if the 70 year is a doctor and the 40 year old is a smoking alcoholic?

This is one heck of a rabbit hole we could go down here.

Seems that Black Mirror episode about each person having a social media/review like rating out of 5 stars is not far off, is it?

It would certainly make it easy for medical people to decide who to save and who to relegate to the back of the line. 4 stars or less – no ventilator for you!

#215 NoName on 04.01.20 at 10:47 am

#204 Dharma Bum on 04.01.20 at 9:45 am

The overriding driver of the symptoms is fear. Human fear and panic. Fear of death. The single biggest flaw of the human psyche. We are aware of our own mortality, and so we react hysterically when faced with the prospect of imminent death. Hysteria leads to irrational behaviour.

yes 100% correct, here is a proof, video is from funny show but i did vitnest or told similar behaviour.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO8N3L_aERg

#216 Jackie Singer on 04.01.20 at 10:56 am

April 1st is here and rent is due. Many hundreds of thousands of renters both residential and commercial can’t pay, not won’t pay, but can’t pay.

This has been well known for more than a month. However , Trudeau has obviously chosen to do nothing. He must want to sew chaos among desperate people. There’s no other explanation, unless you’re onside with the fringe Canadians who firmly believe that Trudeau is not his own man and is instead a front man for an evil cabal whose goal is to gut Canada for reasons of their own.

Again, it looks like a coup, but is It instead just extreme incompetence? There has to be a reason for the non action. It would be the height of cruelty not to let single Moms and seniors have some sense of what’s going on. People are very worried.

The Trudeau government purposely pushed any decision they might make about assistance until it was too late. Does Justin not have a calendar? Has he never known what happens went an eviction procedure is hanging over your head and babies and mommies are frightened?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-commercial-property-landlords-push-back-against-rent-relief-requests/

The Trudeau Libs have not given anyone any idea how or when to apply. Why? The BC government now says their program depends on being qualified by the Trudeaus. If there’s a riot or two I won’t be surprised. Trudeau has driven good people past their limits.

#217 NoName on 04.01.20 at 11:02 am

Interesting video taleb on virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb2pXXUSzmI&fbclid=IwAR3KKtSnp0SHweLXWvyv8u9R6njb15Ce3W_gemFJ4ptfTkOw1SVW5QupiFg

#218 Scheer Weakness on 04.01.20 at 11:04 am

Garth, what do you think of Scheer’s comments this morning dissing Trudeau?

It seems like the Conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot, MacKay and Scheer, trying to politicize a crisis where nobody knows what’s going to happen.

They maybe should realize this is not lying Trump’s America, and be more balanced.

#219 BillyBob on 04.01.20 at 11:08 am

#202 oh bouy on 04.01.20 at 9:37 am
@#183 BillyBob on 04.01.20 at 6:29 am

Demand for Alberta oil has been pushed further into the future by the current crisis. It hasn’t gone away.

________________________________________

there will always be demand for oil, just not the difficult/expensive to extract type. that probably won’t be back in our lifetime.

====================================================

We’ll see. The virus and supply glut/demand collapse of oil do not change the science of energy provision whatsoever. Only the economics, and only temporarily.

When something is vital and not practically replaceable, it becomes more and more worthwhile to procure at higher and higher cost. Of course the cheapest will be consumed first. It already has been.

But contrary to what the ecowarriors will have us believe, fossil fuels are presently still completely vital for vast swaths of industry, manufacturing, transport, agriculture, medicine to name a few. Couple that with a complete lack of realistic alternatives on offer to replace them at this point in history, not on any meaningful scale yet, and not close. Sure, shell games such as replacing ICE vehicles with EV will help to reduce emissions where vehicles are concentrated, but that doesn’t necessarily give a net reduction of energy consumption. Those Tesla batteries have to have their lithium mined somehow, their manufacture powered somehow, their batteries charged somehow. “Zero-emissions” is the biggest lie ever.

In the long run, economics will rule. If fossil fuels are still as vital when the cheaper reserves runs low, you better believe whatever reserves are available will be extracted.

#220 Figure it Out on 04.01.20 at 11:15 am

“When the rising taxes decimate any people who have saved for a rainy day…..”

– Taxes are still based on income, not wealth/savings
– Capital gains are still 1/2 off taxes
– Canadian dividends are still taxed lower than labour income or interest
– Being decimated (literally losing 1/10 of your stash) doesn’t seem so terrible, compared to BK, long term unemployment, losing your home, or death

But it won’t be rising taxes you need to watch out for. It’ll be inflation.

” if non working private sector employees that are being forced into unemployment by government policy are being given 2k a month why should unemployed government employees receive full salaries?”

This is just crabs-in-a-bucket style thinking. Seemingly everyone is saying either “if he gets a bailout, I want a bailout” or “if I have to suffer, make them suffer, too!” Everybody wants somebody else to suffer more.

#221 TurnerNation on 04.01.20 at 11:47 am

#210 rickyspin on 04.01.20 at 10:23 am
Ford is delaying North American production “Indefinitely

–Oh they will return. Once the government corporate handouts are completed. You see the game here? It’s a bankers Shell game. Magic Money.
Air Canada bailouts are being discussed openly. That’s what the third bailout of theirs in my lifetime?

#222 Gil on 04.01.20 at 11:49 am

#204 Dharma Bum on 04.01.20 at 9:45 am

The origin of this problem is not economic. It is health related. Only the symptoms are economic.
***********************************

Its a very popular narrative but I couldnt disagree more. Yes, the trigger of the crisis is medical. But it underlined what was obvious for the last several years. OVERLEVERAGED!
Everything and everybody is relying almost exclusively on cheap money and ever growing debt. Depending on the maarket and geography manifestations are different but the underlying problem is the same. In US companies are using cheap money to inflate their stock price, in Canada where stock market is not diversified enough the same cheap money is fueling real estate and the list goes on.

The new norm is – cheap money is there in unlimited quantity to prevent not even a recession but the market correction. Several times over the last several years correction (who knows might be a possible recession) was averted by flooding economies with liquidity generated by debt. Well, congratulations. Chickens will come to roost, how hard and how fast, yet to be seen.
For now after unprecedented expansion of the last decade neither folks nor businesses have any fat on them and are leveraged to the kilt so government had to come to the rescue in a matter of two weeks. And will continue coming to the rescue

#223 Lambchop on 04.01.20 at 12:06 pm

#214 Jackie Singer on 04.01.20 at 10:56 am

The Trudeau Libs have not given anyone any idea how or when to apply. Why? The BC government now says their program depends on being qualified by the Trudeaus. If there’s a riot or two I won’t be surprised. Trudeau has driven good people past their limits.
_________________

I have often wondered, through recent years of watching the mindbending ineptitude of our dear leader(s), what it would actually take for the average Canadian to have enough and actually stand up, revolt, fire our overlords.

I thought the rail blockades would be the final straw, but not enough people knew the real story, and had empathy for the FN group.

I think this might be it though. Total economic destruction, bankruptcies, foreclosures, lost investments, extreme taxation. We might actually be at the point where people put their phones down for a minute, turn off the msm, go outside and DO something.

Or maybe not.

#224 BillyBob on 04.01.20 at 12:22 pm

#220 Figure it Out on 04.01.20 at 11:15 am

” if non working private sector employees that are being forced into unemployment by government policy are being given 2k a month why should unemployed government employees receive full salaries?”

This is just crabs-in-a-bucket style thinking. Seemingly everyone is saying either “if he gets a bailout, I want a bailout” or “if I have to suffer, make them suffer, too!” Everybody wants somebody else to suffer more.

====================================================

No, I think it’s more trying to grasp the logic of having one employee class bear the load of the crisis disproportionately versus another.

If all employees are tax-paying citizens, and public sector employees truly believe in their socialist principles, they should be willing to accept the practical outcome of said principles. Government employees are quite happy to accept the largesse of taxpayer-funded salaries, why should they not sacrifice as the non-government employed taxpayers?

As highlighted couple days ago, some of them are absolutely vital and still refuse to work. Meanwhile the most humbly-compensated of private employees keep going to work so we can eat, get our trash collected, and so on.

So could you explain why public sector employees should receive full pay to sit at home, while private sector employees get a pittance, if they’re lucky?

Dismissing it as petty jealousy isn’t going to cut it.

#225 JB on 04.01.20 at 12:45 pm

#199 Smoking Man on 04.01.20 at 9:15 am

105 Smoking Girl on 03.31.20 at 7:09 pm
The Coronahoax has all the earmarks of a psyop.

Simulation experts like Dr. Colleen Brown create panic in the media while crickets are heard at local hospitals. No one is dying in the hospitals. It’s a plan to enforce Marshall law using the government to steal our freedoms.

Just like nine-eleven when virtually the whole political establishment lied to us, we must recognize that we’re ruled by liars and traitors. Virtually every participant in the panic game, including Trump, is a traitor. But why is this news.
,………..

Beats Me.
…………………………………………………………………
Jesus your out there. So are the treatments done? Looking forward to the meet and greet at San Francesco beers at the Monarch. Hope your holding out well against this non-existent corona hoax.
Keep well.

#226 JB on 04.01.20 at 12:50 pm

Do not get in an elevator for gods sake. Now I know that she is exposed much more than we would normally be to all of this nasty stuff but wow this is crazy.

Hi this was a post by an infectious diseases nurse that I found in a comment section.

1. I don’t use the elevator. We call it the disease box. Mask up if you must use on. Use your elbow to push the buttons. Then wash your hands.

2. If a door has a handicap button, I use my elbow to push it. If not, I use my sleeve to turn the handle. Then I wash my hands.

3. When I wash my hands, I do everything with my elbow. Turn the water off with a paper towel. I open the door with a paper towel.

4. I do not shake hands. Elbow bump.

5. I keep an N95 mask in each pocket. When in doubt, I whip it out.

6. I don’t touch my food with my hands, ever. I hold burgers and sandwiches by the wrapper or in a napkin.

7. I don’t touch my eyes, nose or mouth.

8. I was my hands before going to my car to go home.

9. I strip down as soon as I get home. I keep a work clothes hamper in our mud room.

10. I take a shower. All this may or may not help in a full blown pandemic but I sleep well knowing that I’ve done what I can to protect my family.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/coronavirus-in-elevators-looking-for-an-advise/

then I saw this yuck.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gross-coughs-and-sneezes-form-traveling-disease-clouds/

#227 Figure it Out on 04.01.20 at 1:23 pm

“… and public sector employees truly believe in their socialist principles …”

Saying your average public sector employee is a socialist makes about as much sense as painting private sector employees as capitalists. They’re wage labourers, all of ’em. Are pilots who fly for state owned airlines socialists?

“So could you explain why public sector employees should receive full pay to sit at home, while private sector employees get a pittance, if they’re lucky?”

I don’t know how many public employees are at home on full pay. Or private.

But a lot of people here are outraged that some tenants, who can pay their rent, are planning not to. If an employer can pay its employees, should it not? Some are, and some can’t. Some aren’t even though they could. The fewer employees get paid, the more who can’t pay their rent/mortgage/bills, buy stuff, and support the rest of the economy. Having the government stop paying employees just inflicts more damage on the economy, as a matter of pure economics.

This situation is meting out plenty of pain and unfairness on the deserving and the undeserving alike. I think meting out more pain in the name of less unfairness will just make things worse for longer.

#228 JonBoy on 04.01.20 at 2:17 pm

#226 Figure it Out

This situation is meting out plenty of pain and unfairness on the deserving and the undeserving alike. I think meting out more pain in the name of less unfairness will just make things worse for longer.

—-

Pain is a necessary part of learning most lessons. I see no reason why we should all of a sudden start relieving people’s pain (two to three weeks into a crisis, mind you!). Pain focuses you to eliminate it and ignore all other issues. Someone in pain only wants the pain to end and they’ll do whatever it takes to stop it.

That means that you realize that having two brand new cars with $600 monthly payments is painful. You get rid of one (or both) of them and then you don’t do it again.

That means that having the latest phones and gadgets is painful. So you stop spending that, with the $100 phone plan every month, so that it doesn’t hurt the next time this happens.

That means that eating out a lot is painful. You start learning to cook and buy your own groceries and keep your food expenses down.

It means you start saving rather than taking a vacation or two every year to Mexico or wherever.

Alleviating the pain for those that have CHOSEN their over-reaching lifestyle is unfair and unreasonable. You’re using the money from those that planned and sacrificed to not be in pain to help those that chose the opposite.

People need to learn and if we’re three weeks into “the pain” and we’re already bailing people out, that’s a huge problem. People need to realize they have no money. People need to realize they are living beyond their means. People need to realize that real estate isn’t always a sure bet and speculative buying can bite you.

People need to learn how to manage their money and bailing them out with dollars that are better spent elsewhere is not the solution, ESPECIALLY this early into the crisis.

If people need money “now”, even in a non-crisis, they’d still be hooped because you have to wait a few weeks to even get EI payments. How would they have survived before this crisis, if they lost their job?

I get it: some people are living hand-to-mouth and are genuinely financially stressed at the best of times. This type of situation destroys them. But those type of people also usually have some form of government support already and chances are they can actually survive a little better than most.

When I was in university, we often had less than $10 in the bank. If I lost my income in that situation, we would have really struggled. But that’s not normal for most people, and most people aren’t living off $1500 a month like we were.

Bottom line: people need the pain. We’re taking away the pain and that means a lot of people aren’t going to learn nearly as well as the should/could if we let things slide for a bit. We need a real estate correction (a big one!). We need people to save money. We need people to learn to live below their means. This is a prime opportunity for those types of lessons. They didn’t learn in the good times so maybe it’s time to let the bad times roll….

I’m looking for a new (used) car. I have cash saved for it and I’m just hoping that some of these people have the sense to take my decent offer before things get so bad that they only get 50% of what their car is (used to be) worth, instead of 80%. One car I’m following is down 25% in the asking price (which was already very low to start) in the last three weeks and still no buyers…

#229 Sky on 04.02.20 at 7:19 am

Is this the most gargantuan mediagasm of fear mongering in our lifetime, or what?

The virus, the virus, the virus! Have we been put under house arrest with limited entertainment options so the TV can finally finish us off with its endless stream of concocted terror? Is that the plan?

Reaching out to family for some emotional relief is a losing battle. People who were sane and rational only a couple of weeks ago have now gone off the deep end. If you don’t buy into their “this virus is gonna kill us all ” script you get the phone hung up on you. Paranoia is in bloom. It’s all the rage.

Ask yourselves this – Why aren’t they dropping like flies in the big cruise ships with bars otherwise known as prisons? How are they “social distancing”? Shouldn’t the prison populations alone have overwhelmed our hospitals?

And sacrificing the young and the healthy at the altar of the old and feeble is a recipe for economic suicide.

So how will this all shake out? Don’t ask the govt or their “experts”. They’re flying by the seat of their pants and making it all up as they go along. Like Neil Ferguson of Imperial College renown who said half a million Brits were going to bite the dust and then revised the figures down to 20K and recently 5K. These are the people your govt is listening to.

I’ve heard numerous references now on CNBC to the “new world”. Look for that buzz word to become more common.

And isn’t this a small taste of the climate alarmist’s wet dream? Industry shut down, hardly anyone driving or flying, the sinking C02 emissions. I say just a small taste because we still have electricity, gas and meat. Baby steps, baby steps. Tiptoe totalitarianism. But we’re on our toddling way.

Somebody mentioned Bill Gates on this forum who said we need to lockdown for another 10 weeks. Would that be the famed international virologist, Bill Gates? Or am I confusing him with computer nerd Bill Gates whose expertise in virology consists of the viruses and spyware installed on his crappy Window’s systems?

If it’s any consolation :

“European mortality bulletin week 12, 2020

Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show, overall, normal expected levels in the participating countries; however, increased excess mortality is notable in Italy.”

https://www.euromomo.eu/