Virus porn

 

“People are not very good at statistical analysis and probabilistic reasoning,” says blog dog Matthew. “I feel like this pandemic has now taken on a whole psychological life of its own, most citizens comply with the official story and are scared by the media, but in truth the reaction is way out of proportion to the evidence, and the ensuing damage to humanity will be staggeringly worse.”

Ya think? Just read the comment section of this pathetic blog. Apparently we’re all days away from a wheezy death. Politicians get a pass on gutting the economy and blowing a hole in finances that will take a generation to mend. Because we’re terrified.

This is not a virus blog. Let’s make that clear yet again. We have no idea where this little bugger is headed. How many of us will sicken, succumb, or the impact on our health care system – all unknown. But we can see 100% are being damaged in an engineered shutdown of epic proportions.

“To allay our fears it is so important to note that up to 1,500 Canadians die each year from seasonal flu (including kids),” Matt continues. “Covid is well and safely within that range.”

But few believe it. (Actually 12,200 Canadians were hospitalized with the flu last year while 3,500 died of it. Thus far we have had 67 Covid fatalities.)

Darker days could lie ahead. We have no idea. So let’s deal in some facts.

First, people are not prepared for this shock. Or any shock. The number applying for EI has shattered all records by a huge factor. Up to 800,000 tenants are believed unable (or unwilling) to pay their rent on Wednesday.

A survey released Monday shows 49% of us are a few hundred bucks from bankruptcy and the number worried about debt (46%) is inflating fast. A quarter couldn’t pay their monthly bills even before the lights went out two weeks ago. About 35% figured they’d soon be jobless. This is a snapshot of a nation in personal financial crisis. No savings. No reserves. No plan.

Second, if you really want something to worry about, here it is: oil.

Crude prices have slumped to twenty bucks, a 17-year low and we’re running out of places to put the stuff. This is Canada’s biggest export. It costs more to move our crude than the oil is worth. Global demand has fallen by a quarter in recent weeks thanks to Covid, and that’s a first. Despite that, Russia and the OPECers have been fighting and increasing supply. Canada, with its pipeline problems and expensive oilpatch operations, has seen its price collapse. Alberta may go with it.

Third, real estate accounts for more of the Canadian economy than all manufacturing. And guess what Virus Porn has done there? Yup, killed it dead.

For example, the following words form part of a release Royal LePage is requiring sellers to sign before an agent will show their home. Yikes.

I am requiring that my Listing REALTOR® market, provide access and show my property to third parties and potential buyers and I do so voluntarily and of my own free will without any coercion by any person or company and being fully aware that we are in the midst of a COVID?19 virus pandemic and the virus appears to be highly contagious;

I fully understand that by allowing access to third parties and buyers entering into or onto my premises that I may be exposing myself to the potential transmission of the COVID?19 virus to myself, my family or my friends and I knowingly, freely and voluntarily accept the inherent risks of this activity, including possible contamination, illness and death;

I will maintain at least a 6 foot (or 2 metre) social distance from all persons that my Listing REALTOR® or any Co?operating REALTOR® brings onto my premises during showings of my property or visits by my REALTOR® or other third parties for marketing preparation purposes;

I have been advised by my REALTOR® that upon completion of any showings of my property to any third parties that I air out the premises and disinfect and clean all surfaces in the Premises including but not limited to door handles, switches, windows, counter tops or any other surfaces. I further understand and agree that these efforts may be limited in their effectiveness of preventing viruses or diseases of any kind;

I have been fully advised by my Listing REALTOR® of the risks involved in marketing, selling and providing access to my home during the COVID?19 virus pandemic and I take full responsibility for any negative consequences resulting from continuing these efforts at this time;

No showings, no sales. No sales, no market.

Fourth, political spending is off the charts. The federal deficit was supposed to an awful $24 billion next year. It will be north of $130 billion. The legacy of tax could be breathtaking in an already high-tax nation. People are being given $2,000 a month. Businesses will be subsidized to maintain payrolls. You can be sure this is a big step towards a universal income – because people have no savings. No reserves. No plans. However, 70% own houses. Go figure.

By the way, Robert sent me this note Monday afternoon: “Just had a call from a friend whose mother in her 90s in a retirement home with supplemental private health and whose life is supported by rental income was told by her tenants, residential and commercial, that they are not paying rent April 1st. Commercial is definitely able to pay. Balanced portfolio sure would be good now.”

So, feel free to worry. But not about getting sick. We can fix that.

 

311 comments ↓

#1 Flop... on 03.30.20 at 4:21 pm

Flop’s Corona Virus Song Of The Day.

Ben Lee

We’re all in this together…

M45BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wKnGem7P-ug

A snippet.

I saw you walking
In the city
We’re all in this together
The city’s changing
‘Cos we are changing
And we’re all in this together
Every twelve seconds
Someone remembers
That we’re all in this together
In the kitchen
Of your rent-control apartment
We’re all in this together.

#2 Derek R on 03.30.20 at 4:24 pm

Whether or not the virus will make every Canadian sick, it has certainly managed to infect Canadian society. And just as it can make people of any age extremely ill without killing them, it is perfectly capable of putting the economy on life support. And that is basically what it has done.

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 4:26 pm

Wow!
Well, if we want accurate stats

The worldometer

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

#4 Virus on 03.30.20 at 4:29 pm

We are little behind the US on the curve. In Canada, the virus is going to increase in the next few months similar to what happened in the US, Italy, Spain, China etc. When the number of cases hit the peak in Ontario around July-August, US cases will be on a decline. We should have a shutdown till the cases peak in July-August.

#5 Mean Gene on 03.30.20 at 4:29 pm

What is going to happen if this or something else rears it’s ugly head in a year or so.

Government derives revenue from economic activity, it appears this has be forgotten, as it merrily goes about damaging it and spending money (all borrowed) to give snowflake pot money… it isn’t like Ebola is running amok for eff’s sake.

#6 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.30.20 at 4:35 pm

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US front man for managing the “pandemic,” has just written an article that ought to be titled: I WAS WRONG AND THIS IS MY CONFESSION.
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/29/turn-the-economy-back-on-even-fauci-is-confessing/

#7 Emile on 03.30.20 at 4:38 pm

I am thankful we are lucky here at the casa. While our hours have been reduced, not extensively so; and the dividend cash transfer (tomorrow!) will provide a cushion to this bad stretch we are going though.

That said, other than our mortgage (following your rule of 90…) we have a paid car in the driveway and no other debt; with reserves adding up to months of expenses that we don’t have to tap into.

#8 Sean on 03.30.20 at 4:39 pm

“People are not very good at statistical analysis and probabilistic reasoning,” says blog dog Matthew.

Seems like Matthew is patient 0 in this regard. The stats show this will be far more lethal than the annual flu. I don’t suppose he offered a suggestion as to what we should be doing instead?

I think the idea is to maintain current abatement practices, but also not become immobilized puddles of anxiety. – Garth

#9 Paddy on 03.30.20 at 4:40 pm

UBI???….good lord, capitalism will be dead.
Garth, the virus doesn’t scare me but this socialism, UBI talk is giving me the chills….

#10 oh bouy on 03.30.20 at 4:40 pm

thanks for this Garth.
Que the fear mongers.

#11 Michael King on 03.30.20 at 4:41 pm

European banks are suspending dividend payments. The head of the BIS is calling for a global freeze in the banking sector. Garth, your thoughts? FYI fellow readers.
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/banks-across-europe-suspend-dividends-and-stop-share-buybacks-57793098

#12 Handsome Ned on 03.30.20 at 4:41 pm

I am a retired blue collar guy. About 4 months ago I was reviewing my portfolio with my financial advisor. She assured me how well positioned I was. Mortgage free 450 thousand assessed value condo, paid up 3 year old car, 200 thousand nest egg and a net pension income of 27 thousand per year. Four months later a worthless condo, a nest egg now of 160 thousand soon to be devalued dollars . The other good news is that the company paying my defined benefit pension was on shaky grounds before the virus and is now completely shut down. I guess I am still considered a lucky bastard but can you spell bank bail in. Garth can you recommend tasty pet food

#13 It’s Science, Stupid on 03.30.20 at 4:42 pm

OMG, dogs, do any of you know what a novel virus is? STOP trying to compare it to seasonal flu. What an unbelievably ignorant thing to do. Damn right this isn’t a virus blog, so stop trying to downplay the seriousness of the virus.
It’s novel. No one has immunity to it. Not herd or otherwise. You don’t have natural antibodies to it, like most of us do to known and seasonal flu strains.
Garth, if you want to be useful with your financial-blog-that-isn’t-a-virus-blog, go back to messaging about how markets recover. Stop pretending you know how medical patients recover, or how pandemics play out without major public health action.

Actually I have no idea about that, and have offered no opinion. But it seems like many more will suffer from the reaction to the virus than the pathogen itself. Common sense is as required as fear. – Garth

#14 What happened to all the rail blockades? on 03.30.20 at 4:43 pm

Well at least we solved that problem!

#15 oh bouy on 03.30.20 at 4:43 pm

@#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 4:26 pm
Wow!
Well, if we want accurate stats

The worldometer

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
________________________________________

even those aren’t truly accurate.
we simply don’t know how many people have/had the virus. still amusing to watch the progression on there though

#16 Davy on 03.30.20 at 4:46 pm

Virus madness

British media reported on a 21 year old woman „who died of Covid19 without any previous illnesses“. However, it has since become known that the woman did not even test positive for Covid19 and died for another reason, possibly even suicide. The Covid19 rumor had arisen „because she had a slight cough“.

A Berkshire coroner said the death was related to Covid-19 after being told Middleton had a cough, the source said. But this surprised medics at the hospital, who have not recorded it as a coronavirus incident.

Daily updates here….
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

#17 Devil Anse on 03.30.20 at 4:47 pm

Hi Garth – It seems you don’t like the way our three levels of government are handling the current situation. I would love to see a blog post of how you would handle this crisis if you were PM, or in your former role as a cabinet minister. What would you differently? What would you do the same?

#18 Steve on 03.30.20 at 4:48 pm

One Government agency shuts their doors while all the others remain working and assisting the public.. but hey, lets burn every public servant right?

#19 SunShowers on 03.30.20 at 4:48 pm

Well Garth, there are 2 possibilities here.

Either the overwhelming majority of medical professionals in the world (and the government officials they go on to advise) are correct about this virus, and our actions are either justifiable, or maybe even insufficient.

OR

The financial sector (who has an enormous vested interest in the status quo, as myopic as it might be) is correct, and this whole thing is overblown.

I hate to say it, but I’m not liking the odds for the “not a virus blog.”

#20 Peter Courtney on 03.30.20 at 4:50 pm

Just who are we borrowing all of the money from that the govt is handing out? Who do we owe?

#21 Re-Cowtown on 03.30.20 at 4:52 pm

Crude prices have slumped to twenty bucks, a 17-year low and we’re running out of places to put the stuff. This is Canada’s biggest export. -GT
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

BS . Try $3.58/barrel for Western Canada Select. $20 is a wet dream. Think about that; we’re down to a box of Timbits for a barrel of oil.

Why? Trudeau’s Spectacular Failure on building pipelines to tidewater. Canadian oil is landlocked and we are unable to get world prices, which are closer to $20 or $22.

But more importantly, Trudeau’s Spectacular Failure allows Putin and Saudi Arabia to choke out Canadian Oil at their leisure. We cannot compete on the world stage because Trudeau’s Spectacular Failure ensured that we can’t even get there.

You want to know who’s been paying the FN and Greens to destroy Canada’s oil industry? We just found out. You think Trump is a Putin Stooge? Check out the groundhog who pops out of the GG residence everyday at 11:00am.

The $20 referenced is WTI, not WCS. It is accurate. – Garth

#22 Wrk.dover on 03.30.20 at 4:54 pm

This guy here sees Garth’s present mood on the American side of the same story.

Though he too, is Canadian.

https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 4:54 pm

@#17 Steve
“…..but hey, lets burn every public servant right?”
+++

Well.
At least you didnt call them “civil” servants
Thats a good start.
Here’s a pack of matches.

#24 Millennial Realist on 03.30.20 at 4:55 pm

Boomers, please stay home. Quarantine yourselves now. Do not go out anywhere. For essential services, try to get this done by phone or delivery or have friends assist you where that is a possible alternative.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-s-top-health-official-says-all-people-over-the-age-of-70-should-be-self-isolating-during-pandemic-1.4874308

This is for your benefit and also to reduce the demand on our health system that will be needed for others much more in the days ahead.

#25 bob on 03.30.20 at 4:58 pm

Garth, I’m disappointed in you today.
You start with this assertion
“We have no idea where this little bugger is headed. How many of us will sicken, succumb, or the impact on our health care system – all unknown.”

But that statement is false. We only need look at Italy vs South Korea vs China for example.

There are tons of stats and epidemiology stodies and math and science that predict and model (just like your firm uses financial models, moving day averages, etc).

So if your first statement is false, everything else that follows is suspect. i.e. that this isn’t serious. It is serious.

But to be clear, it is okay to have an honest discussion that says “X people die” is not worth the Y billions we are spending. But be realistic. X isn’t 67.

Look to the US announcements yesterday. They are predicting 100K deaths in good-case scenario. Do nothing, and it was millions.

#26 Flop... on 03.30.20 at 4:59 pm

I’ll do some more community service on here.

Do you live in Vancouver?

Are you unsure as to what is happening with your kids education?

If so, write me at any time in the next few months, and I will ask Mrs Flop to answer your questions to the best of her abilities…

#27 CEW9 on 03.30.20 at 5:00 pm

Well, the MJ market seems to be doing ok in the down turn.

HMMJ just announced their spring dividend – north of 16% annualized. Its not a sure & regular dividend (but neither are the banks, this year).

People will skip out on paying their rent, but they need their smoke. It’s a weird world.

#28 GB on 03.30.20 at 5:00 pm

Is it just me or is this boiling down to the option of complete economic collapse and all it’s horrific consequences (suicide, anarchy, crime etc)….or a healthcare over run with dire consequences (massive death toll).

Either one looks terrible.

But which one is worse?

That seems to me to be the unenviable position we are in.

Does that seem accurate?

#29 slick on 03.30.20 at 5:00 pm

Doug Ford has been catching accolades for his work during this crisis. I concur. He has taken action as soon as issues are brought to his attention. I was hoping our PM would be like that, but alas, Trudeau’s actions come days,or weeks after a light has been shone on the problem.
two examples;
1) He knew on the thursday before March Break, that the lid was going to close on Travellers. He let thousands of people get on planes and head south, knowing full well that within a week the airplanes were going to be shut down. I believe it was monday or tuesday he made the’ It’s time to come home’ speech.

2) He announced 3 days ago that passengers on buses, trains , and domestic plane flights, would be refused passage if they showed signs of illness. Why the delay??? This rule should have been in place weeks ago. there should have been screeners with thermometers at the entrance gates. But noooo, let it drag on until thousands have travelled and spread this virus. Shameful!!

And while i am at it, Trump is a character, for sure. Never admits a mistake, but could you picture Biden in charge of this mess?? Or Hilary??? She would be busy selling stock and lining her pockets. The US is lucky to have Trump at the top. The alternatives would be horrendous. Canada is finding out the price of soft leadership.

#30 Suede on 03.30.20 at 5:02 pm

long time listener

100th time caller.

The budget will balance itself.

The wealth gap will widen

The tax man will come.

And your carbon taxes will go up.

Welcome to The Great Reset.

Manager your money. Give up that fancy car and things you can’t afford.

This is the first time Canadians have EVER been in a crisis situation. Immigrants all know this well – “save your money for a rainy day”. It’s raining out there kids. Prepare accordingly.

#31 People Panic on 03.30.20 at 5:02 pm

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz

It’s the graphs at the bottom of your link that have everyone in a tizzy. In short, the number of infections is doubling every 5 or 6 days, which is an unheard of growth rate. The number of flu cases does not do that and instead remains relatively constant because it is already widely circulating.

Here are some stats for just Canada:

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html

The good news is that it appears “social distancing” has in fact greatly slowed the infection rate from the original exponential path. Let’s hope that is the case.

Whether it was worth the cost we probably won’t even be able to tell in hindsight.

#32 Don Guillermp on 03.30.20 at 5:04 pm

One hour long but well worth the time. Most of us have time.

Rational, expert thoughts in plain language from Dr. John Ioannidis at Stanford who talks about
hashtag COVID19. Great interview that explains data gaps, why Italian situation is so unique and extreme, and why the death rate is very likely overstated. We need to stop panicking.

Policy makers will need to make informed decisions soon, based on better data – urgently needed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4rmjwd0g&feature=youtu.be

#33 Doug t on 03.30.20 at 5:06 pm

Feeling more and more like an organized economic crash – but why? And by who? Things that make you go hhhhmmmmmmmm

#34 State 51 on 03.30.20 at 5:06 pm

I guess we just found out who was bankrolling the anti-pipline crowd.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/texas-or-canada-where-will-oil-hit-0-first

#35 Anon on 03.30.20 at 5:08 pm

If you are comparing trailing indicators of flu to COVID, such as the number of cases or deaths, then should wait until the latter shows signs of peaking to make an apples-to-apples comparison.

While COVID remains in the exponential-growth phase, it is not a useful comparison because each day will bring a larger increase in cases than the previous one.

By contrast, flu is all over the world and can transit the hemisphere each season by many directions. It doesn’t have to start small from a single place.

#36 not 1st on 03.30.20 at 5:08 pm

#4 Virus on 03.30.20 at 4:29 pm

That’s great, then what is your solution for restarting the smoking rotting corpse of an economy that will be left?

#37 Deplorable Dude on 03.30.20 at 5:10 pm

The planet has hit the economic self destruct button to save some Boomers.

Our only hope for a speedy resolution is that these pill treatment trials work in New York. First results being reported tomorrow I think.

#38 Howard on 03.30.20 at 5:10 pm

Anyone who struggled with unemployment prior to this month should be rightfully annoyed at this extra $2000 of “emergency” dole granted to the newly unemployed.

We have EI for those who lose their jobs to provide a cushion and a hand up while they job hunt or retrain. That is sufficient. Just because there happen to be more people currently unemployed than previous years doesn’t make their personal situation different or any more of an “emergency” than those who lost their jobs before. They are not worthy of MORE taxpayer money than anyone who experienced unemployment prior to the Covid-19 era.

#39 Franco on 03.30.20 at 5:11 pm

I understand the economic impact is going to be something that most of us have never experienced in our time, but why are all governments taking these drastic steps if it was not a big deal, seems to me Trump would love to open up everything, but he knows the damage this will do. The Health care system alone will collapse if this virus goes unchecked. Hopefully this curve thing happens soon, so we can start getting thing going again.

#40 I just can't believe ... on 03.30.20 at 5:12 pm

the price of gas actually came down a significant amount in the LM. Surely the powers at be could have come up with another reason to keep hosing us. This is unheard of.

#41 Linda on 03.30.20 at 5:13 pm

I very much doubt that those who support the concept of ‘universal income’ would enjoy it becoming reality. Because there is no way it would support the luxury lifestyles they doubtless envisage they’d have. Forget ‘Lifestyles of the Rich & Famous’ & think ‘Les Miserables’.

My current forecast for the economy is ‘Gloomy, with a 100% chance of tax increases’. I sure hope I’m wrong, but the signs & portents are not in our favor right now.

#42 Hairhead on 03.30.20 at 5:16 pm

Since it seems to be a recurring theme that the coronavirus came from some evil lab, either Chinese, American, or Other, I offer the following link from a Ph.D. biologist. https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2020/03/28/where-did-sars-cov-2-come-from/

For those who think that’s tl:dr, here is the plain-language version of article.

If you suffer from a catastrophic brake failure, then check your brake lines you will see either 1) worn, weakened brake line failed from natural causes, ie. wear and tear, or 2) a nice clean cut, which means that some murderous &*%*& snipped your brake line deliberately.

Scientists have examined COVID-19, and it shows all of the earmarks of natural development; if it had been made in a lab, it would remains and marks of the chemical tools which genetic scientists use to modify organisms.

Let’s just set that myth to rest, eh?

#43 BlogDog123 on 03.30.20 at 5:16 pm

It does seem unfair that a “crisis today” should not be paid for by “today’s generation”. Including seniors.

Trudeau feels quite comfortable with large deficits / debts and kicking the problem down the road.

google “Illinois pension crisis” to understand how decades of kicking the problem down the road has worked out for Illinois.

#44 Stoph on 03.30.20 at 5:18 pm

I have yet to hear of any government plans for widespread testing. Just think of how many people who are currently self-isolating ‘just-in-case’ they have the virus could work again if they were tested rather than sitting at home for two weeks. This would benefit the worker, the employer and the government. I’m sure the cost of a test is a fraction of 2 weeks of EI.

#45 MF on 03.30.20 at 5:18 pm

Who is blog dog Matthew?

The flu stats are annual. Check back in February 2021 to see if they are comparable.

Oh yeah, and let’s not forget we have no vaccine, no medication, and no immunity for covid. Minor details i guess?

This virus is particularly rough on a certain large segment of the population that is born after ww2 and has an incredible amount of wealth. These people are the ones that go on cruises, eat in restaurants, lease cars and so on. This is the demographic that is most fearful, and rightfully so. They also have a lot of power. Maybe that’s why the response has been so strong?

One thing is for sure, if Garth thinks this will just pass then we will have business as usual then why the worry? Why would it take a decade to heal economically?

The real pain and damage were done over the last 10 years when our economy ran on real estate, aided, abetted, and encouraged strongly by our low rate environment. That’s what we should be lamenting. Not oil, nor covid.

MF

#46 Re-Cowtown on 03.30.20 at 5:21 pm

The $20 referenced is WTI, not WCS. It is accurate. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

True. But misleading. We don’t get WTI prices. The sad part is that Alberta is dying and we’re arguing how deep the grave is.

Any generic reference to ‘oil price’ or ‘world oil price’ is West Texas Intermediate or Brent. Never WCS. – Garth

#47 Timmy on 03.30.20 at 5:22 pm

IF the majority of sellers pull their homes off the market for 5 months and then re-list when this subsides, how will this lower prices? Won’t there be a similar number of homes on the market when this all blows over? In which case, probably not much effect on prices.

#48 JSS on 03.30.20 at 5:27 pm

The Covid virus is one issue.
The financial repercussions is another

But the big one that has not been brought up much is the impact of mental health effects on people of all ages. Depression, anger, sadness, anxiety, suicide, etc. either from sitting at home all day, money problems, to job loss, to business failures, to fear of losing a job.

#49 Meep on 03.30.20 at 5:28 pm

#34
I’m pretty sure those already on EI cannot apply for CERB. You either get one or the other. At least, that’s what the information online says.

#50 Dave on 03.30.20 at 5:30 pm

One of the lessons from the 2009 crash in the US from Paul Krugman, Princeton Economist who was in Obama’s cabinet, was that the stimulus wasn’t enough and many people didn’t work and didn’t pay taxes for years, while many never worked in their field again. The Govt should have done more for the people early on. Of course Obama didn’t have the balls to jail the bankers who clearly should have been accountable….You can’t fault the Canadian government for what they are doing. The people in the gig economy and low paying precarious work need help now. I’d like to hear your solution if you have a better one.

#51 RyYYZ on 03.30.20 at 5:30 pm

#23 bob on 03.30.20 at 4:58 pm
That number is already up by 19 (or 17, depending on whose figure you use) to 84 reported deaths now, in Canada. I was a little hopeful after two days with only 5 new deaths each day, but realistically, looking at the total cases and rate of new cases, more deaths were bound to follow.

#52 Lost...but not leased on 03.30.20 at 5:31 pm

Despite that, Russia and the OPECers have been fighting and increasing supply. Canada, with its pipeline problems and expensive oilpatch operations, has seen its price collapse. Alberta may go with it.

===================

Gee…where are all the protestors and blockades ???

Oh..right…mission accomplished !!!

#53 Niagara Region on 03.30.20 at 5:33 pm

Here is another great website with up-to-the-moment stats on COVID-19 deaths, illnesses, and recoveries:

https://ncov2019.live/

Cars continue to stream past my window on a steady basis. Stay home!

How are people driving cars infecting others? Just curious. – Garth

#54 Abc123 on 03.30.20 at 5:36 pm

Stock market will recover , returning all losses incurred over past few weeks , within the next few years or so.

Real estate prices in the GTA, already showing their incredible “ stickiness” ,will get a complete pass when it comes to price declines ,over next few weeks and months as the global health situation improves, only to move to new higher highs, with all the government largesse.

Think 2008/9 . Houses barely blipped down only to skyrocket afterwards.

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 5:37 pm

@#19 Peter C
“Just who are we borrowing all of the money from that the govt is handing out? Who do we owe?”

++++
The scary / amusing version?

The tax paying Millennial’s !

Bwahahahahahaaha

#56 Nonplused on 03.30.20 at 5:37 pm

My favorite tinfoil hat theory is that the governments of the world are staging the pandemic to cover up a coming collapse of the financial system. There are some fairly obvious problems with this theory:

1. There is no way you are going to get countries as diverse and antagonistic towards each other as China, the US, Russia, Iran, Europe, Asia, and South America to agree to and coordinate such an effort.

2. There are way too many people involved. You know the saying, “two men can keep a secret as long as one of them is dead.”

3. It’s the worst cover-up ever because anyone with 2 synapses that function knew all about the debt problem already well before the Covid panic. All this might do is change the timing of events, not the outcome.

4. Commentors are rightly fairly alarmed by all the government borrowing being announced as a result of this thing, but let’s face it all that money was going to be borrowed eventually anyway. All they’ve done is bring it forward by some years. Government borrowing has been on a generally exponential growth pattern for many years with only brief respites.

5. Passing a spending bill is not the same thing as actually spending the money so it is yet to be seen if Trudeau will actually spend his $138 billion or Trump his $2 Trillion. Well, they will eventually but can they do it in a year? We have to wait and see.

#57 Rico on 03.30.20 at 5:39 pm

Everyone here must know the difference between log and linear scale scales for stock charts, so they must also know the difference between linear and exponential growth.
Anyone thinking the response is overblown clearly does not.
Quit whining about the economy and the stock market. We need to get through this well.
Check the double peak infection rates from the Spanish flu if you think relaxing social distancing early is a good idea..

#58 sailedaway on 03.30.20 at 5:40 pm

Real estate? who cares, the realtors can go and pick potatoes, yes more work than getting photocopies signed but will do the arrogant lot some good.

The socialist republic of Canada is dead for a generation.
Justin the great distrusts business so much that he openly threatens us if we dare abuse the wage subsidy. ffs.

I don’t recall him threatening RBC, Mc Cain?
Or the teachers either?

The little comic who’s never done a day’s work in the real world. We elected (not me ) a clown, we’re getting the circus.

Maybe we could have picked up the best solutions coming out of the UK and Australia? No, so clever up north, we should have quarantined all people coming back from abroad in schools, hotels etc.

But no, we still think it’s the 80’s and ‘trust’ people. ahahah.

Maybe St Maxime Bernier will save us. lol

#59 Howard on 03.30.20 at 5:41 pm

Biden MIA, his handlers are keeping him hidden.

Trump’s approval rating way up.

New chatter that some Democrats want to install Andrew Cuomo as the nominee.

#60 Coopoiler on 03.30.20 at 5:41 pm

Justin was finally asked by a reporter what he intended to do about the scheduled carbon tax increase on April first. His answer! Nothing! He stated he is committed to helping the middle class and this is the right way to go.
Gas is finally cheap but we are not allowed to go anywhere

#61 Lost...but not leased on 03.30.20 at 5:42 pm

“Old Man’s Friend”

Spouse’s granny was in a Seniors care wing at local hospital back in early 1980’s. You got to know several of the parties. Then, over a short period of time, several were just “gone”.

Mother -In -Law (who is now 85)said matter-of- factly that a bout of flu went through the wing…and referred to it as the “Old Man’s Friend” .

This was translated as they were old, many of them wheelchair bound, and not the best quality of life, hence the “flu” was their “friend” that released them from their current earthly fate.

Otherwise, nothing new here…its a natural cycle but our failed leaders are pimping the facts into Fear Porn.

#62 Jager on 03.30.20 at 5:43 pm

The Canadian oil-patch is now comatose and the near future is even bleaker. Alberta’s economy will fall into depression. The nation cannot be far behind.

Barring a V shaped (rapid) recovery (unlikely) a heart breaking, dystopian future awaits Canadians.

The central banks sucked the world into a debt maelstrom. We took the bait hook, line and sinker.

I’m troubled for our children. They didn’t deserve this…

#63 Another Deckchair on 03.30.20 at 5:44 pm

Rent.

I’m not a landlord nor renter atm; but:

1) CBC Ottawa, about a month ago, lots of articles about lower income people being booted; lots of articles about charities not being able to find affordable rentals;

2) Facebook this past week a few “tenant said that they’d not make rent but I need this for my mortgage”

I think the gauntlet has been thrown; when this COVID-19 blows over, rents will be a) harder to find and b) really expensive.

I think the renters are in the midst of doing a collective shooting-themselves-in-the-foot, thanks to the government saying “we’ll help”. Yeah, right!

#64 Attrition on 03.30.20 at 5:45 pm

As Garth has oft suggested, time to shift focus from viral to financial.

But first, for context, here are the known-knowns:

a) The virus will likely make dead about 1-2% of those it infects

b) If you’re not in a high risk group, you’ll be fine

c) Governments are reacting with unprecedented, unimaginable stimulus

Given that the above are true, we can expect to see unimaginable new taxes on real estate, on bank deposits, on capital gains, on dividends and on income.

There is no other option.

These taxes will coincide with what is sure to be some form of inflation. What other outcome of deficits and stimulus is possible? The prospect of hyperinflation is the only thing savers and investors should be turning into puddles of anxiety over.

Not only will all our assets and income be taxed more than ever before, the buying power of every dollar will be decimated. Our Canuck bucks are going down, down down…

Thus, it’s time to wake up to the new reality about to dawn. Whether you see this as a coordinated event, a legitimate response to a viral threat, or a long predicted conspiracy unfolding before your eyes, it doesn’t matter.

The world you know is the past, and I’ve seen the future.

It was a few years ago when I traveled through Eastern Russia and was shocked at the sight of young Russians digging in vast potatoes fields. Growing up in Canada, I’d never seen ‘white’ folks working in the fields, and certainly not young people.

Breathing in the dust for hours and hours, exposed fingertips raw from digging, foreheads sweat soaked and noses sunburned for a few pounds of potatoes to take home? No thank you. That was why we had temporary foreign worker programs in all provinces…

I didn’t realize then that I was glimpsing the future.

#65 NFN_NLN on 03.30.20 at 5:47 pm

#373 BS on 03.30.20 at 4:43 pm

Trudeau:
Trudeau and federal officials argue border controls might stigmatize some Canadians and upset China.
Feb. 1: Justin Trudeau speaks at large Lunar New Year celebrations in Toronto and addresses COVID-19 outbreak: “There is no place in our country for discrimination driven by fear or misinformation,” Trudeau says. “This is not something Canadians will ever stand for.” Ottawa sends 16 tonnes of personal protective equipment to China in February on 4th.

Contrary to your name, this is not BS. It sounds made up and comical but sadly it is all true.

Trudeau was maybe out cucked by the Italian mayor and his “Hug a Chinese” campaign, but then again his wife was infected AND he wasn’t. She likely got it from her boyfriend :).

#66 JohnAB on 03.30.20 at 5:47 pm

If this virus situation doesn’t bring down the real estate from the overpriced levels it is now, then you can say that the RE investment is the safes ever. Lol. And no, 20% won’t cut it.

#67 joblo on 03.30.20 at 5:48 pm

Lieberal report card:

Justin Trudeau…F
Pat Hajdu……….F
Bill Blair…………F
Melanie Joly……F
Francois Phillipe Champagne ..F
Carolyn Bennett.F
Marc Garneau….F
Chrystia Freeland.F

as well Dr. Teresa Tam…F

Non confidence yet?

#68 Sail away on 03.30.20 at 5:48 pm

Every indication points to this being a virus our immune system recognizes, attacks, and develops antibodies.

So it’s novel. Who cares? Our bodies can deal with it.

Every virus each individual has not personally had is novel to that person.

A novel virus is truly dangerous when it is something our body can’t fight, or one the completely overwhelms a healthy immune system.

This isn’t that.

#69 Paul on 03.30.20 at 5:49 pm

Mayor John Tory, on tv threatening park goers with huge fines! But he didn’t say anything about not going to Chinese restaurants like he did a couple of months ago.
Oh ya it’s different now.

#70 joblo on 03.30.20 at 5:52 pm

DELETED

#71 Don Guillermo on 03.30.20 at 5:53 pm

#30 Don Guillermo on 03.30.20 at 5:04 pm

Rational, expert thoughts in plain language from Dr. John Ioannidis at Stanford

Listen to the good doctor. I may talk some of you off the ledge!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4rmjwd0g&feature=youtu.be

#72 Blue Angel on 03.30.20 at 5:54 pm

Beer is too expensive in Canada!
A barrel of oil is now cheaper than a pint of beer in Canada – https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/a-barrel-of-oil-is-now-cheaper-than-a-pint-of-beer-in-canada.html

#73 TurnerNation on 03.30.20 at 5:56 pm

They are already soft selling what’s to come. Most small businesses will never recover. I bet they cull CPP payouts too. They must be losing lots.
A permanent took for lock down, as when prisons put on a lock down from time to time.
Our lives are ruled by the curve now; numbers on the tele-screens. 1984.

MIT Technology Review.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/

The orange line is ICU admissions. Each time they rise above a threshold—say, 100 per week—the country would close all schools and most universities and adopt social distancing. When they drop below 50, those measures would be lifted, but people with symptoms or whose family members have symptoms would still be confined at home.

#74 Mattl on 03.30.20 at 5:56 pm

First, people are not prepared for this shock. Or any shock. The number applying for EI has shattered all records by a huge factor. Up to 800,000 tenants are believed unable (or unwilling) to pay their rent on Wednesday.

————————————————————–

So much for the wealthy renter.

And yes, I know a large number of homeowners requested mortgage deferral but that number – reported at 250K – is significantly less then 800K, and nearly 70% of people own their home.

I’ve argued here for years that renters have worse outcomes, and that they are not saving the delta between rent and home ownership. If 800K renters can’t make rent, wtf are all these people going to do in retirement, living off limited savings and OAS?

One thing for sure, it would suck to be a landlord.

#75 Buy Low Sell High on 03.30.20 at 5:57 pm

https://ncov2019.live/data

Live update several times a day broken down by country.

#76 AlMac on 03.30.20 at 5:58 pm

My focus is on the future. I have not heard from politicians from any country about an exit strategy from this pandemic, other than possible timelines about how long the current strategy might last. By exit I mean what will be the specific triggers to reopen business? For example, no new cases, or declining or no more daily deaths, or some low or declining infection rate, or vaccine availability etc. Have I missed something? Providing links on this would be greatly appreciated (I am not looking for your personal views).

On another note, I am tracking the trends of daily Covid cases and deaths by country (worldometers.info) to try to figure out an endpoint to this event and to guide spending my cash reserves in the market. I bought some energy today; it is crazy that the price of a barrel of WCS oil is less than 2 cans of my favourite craft beer!

#77 not 1st on 03.30.20 at 5:58 pm

Those freaking out about the virus deaths and infection rates are so short sighted its just sad.

The collective damage to our economy, our mental health and our society at large is immense compared to the death toll. So many nasty truths have been exposed, the psychiatrists are going to have a field day for years to come.

But the one thing that’s evident is how weak we are as a society. Scared of shadows around the corner, running to hide behind the skirt of big govt. Putting zero effort to making your life resilient, and a leader cowering in his own cottage popping out like a broken cuckoo clock every day to spout platitudes to the drooling masses.

#78 Marco on 03.30.20 at 6:00 pm

We’re all not in this together. For example Richard Branson creep is sitting this out on his island (maybe his friend Barack is with him, because is not usual for him not to stab orange dude regularly). After this pass his capitalist cronies will bail out his grounded company. So do not pay the rent you unwashed masses from slums and press for universal income.

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 6:00 pm

@#59 joblo
“Non confidence yet?”

++++

Soon grasshopper, soon.

#80 Lahdeedah on 03.30.20 at 6:03 pm

I think you’re forgetting that of the 70% who own homes, many have access to a HELOC, which comes in handy, and many of the older home-owning generation have already paid off their mortgages and have plenty of savings to draw from. To say that all 70% of home owners are without access to cash is a sweeping generalization, only supports your personal bias (against owners). You seem to deal in extreme binaries, when reality is more of a gradient.

#81 Last Gasp on 03.30.20 at 6:03 pm

Rent strike. Mortagage strike. Payroll strike.Tax strike.

Sttrike left, strike right … strike until there is nothing left to strike.

Greta’s green economy is unfolding before our eyes. Blue skyscraper, coyotes in the inner city and rats free ranging in New Orleans. Nature is winning but human comforts are evaporating. The
Microsoft human virus and Greta’s green new deal have merged. Government plans never execute as the plan envisions. Blowback will be a bitch.

Top down suppression will lead to a ground swell poverty induced revolution. When you are about too loose every thing you will lose it on anyone above your pay grade. The tea leaves are cloudy and no one’s future can be decerned. Interesting times indeed.

#82 butter upon bacon on 03.30.20 at 6:04 pm

What’s a saver to do? I have lived prudently for 10+ years, saved and built up a little nest egg. No debt, no mortgage, no car loan, no credit card debt. I even happened to be sitting in a lot of cash when the stock market tanked.

Here’s the thing, I’m about to get whacked anyways because the government is going to make it rain money for the next 6 months to a year, bailing out home owners and essentially making my savings worthless. I should have levered up and just hoped that my 2k/month from the government would have covered my debt payments plus a mortgage deferral.

I am still employed (for now) so not getting any of that sweet free govt money and no mortgage deferral necessary, obviously still going to pay my rent because even if I lost my job I would pay it out of savings (that I thought we were ALL suppose to have, turns out it was just me).

I feel like my best bet is to knock 30% off the price of a house and throw in an offer and hope the seller is desperate.

#83 North Shore guy on 03.30.20 at 6:04 pm

Hi Garth
In north shore we are forced to work in open office environment (I haven’t met a single millennial who likes it by the way) and we are told that it has more to do with expensive real state as apparently you can cram 40% more people that way in same space.
Anyways, the point is my colleagues seat less than 2 feet away from me in all directions without any walls, if they open the office up that will guarantee spread of virus as most of us take public transport.
This shutdown seems logical to me, I think if we are forced to work from office then statistics will be much higher than what you see currently.
May be do a detailed post on how you think this should be handled? which balances both the economy and health. No seriously, I respect you opinions a lot and I would like to know.

#84 Fasa on 03.30.20 at 6:06 pm

Hmm 70% home ownership looks a good place to start to recover some of those billions of dollars in debt T2 has spent…its coming my friends.

#85 akashic record on 03.30.20 at 6:06 pm

“This is not a virus blog.”

It takes 14+ days to show the symptoms for the host. Contagious in the meantime.

#86 Nonplused on 03.30.20 at 6:07 pm

Goldman sees WCS (Alberta oil) dabbling with $0 this year:

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/texas-or-canada-where-will-oil-hit-0-first

#87 akashic record on 03.30.20 at 6:10 pm

#31 Doug t

Feeling more and more like an organized economic crash – but why? And by who? Things that make you go hhhhmmmmmmmm

Staring at the rabbit hole, eh?

#88 butter upon bacon on 03.30.20 at 6:11 pm

#62 JohnAB on 03.30.20 at 5:47 pm

My sentiment exactly, I told the wife that if we hold out 1-2 years and market survives through the next recession then nothing will take it down. I’m sure it takes 1-2 years for a pullback like this to show up in the housing market but still.

#89 Sold Out on 03.30.20 at 6:14 pm

One of the first FI sector casualities here on beautiful Vancouver Island.

https://www.encorefx.com/

#90 butter upon bacon on 03.30.20 at 6:14 pm

#81 Fasa on 03.30.20 at 6:06 pm

do you mean targeting tax-free capital gains?

#91 Penny Henny on 03.30.20 at 6:14 pm

#20 Re-Cowtown on 03.30.20 at 4:52 pm
Crude prices have slumped to twenty bucks, a 17-year low and we’re running out of places to put the stuff. This is Canada’s biggest export. -GT
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

BS . Try $3.58/barrel for Western Canada Select. $20 is a wet dream. Think about that; we’re down to a box of Timbits for a barrel of oil.

///////////////////////

That is freaking incredible.
A box of timbits for under 4 bucks!

#92 TRON on 03.30.20 at 6:15 pm

‘A survey released Monday shows 49% of us are a few hundred bucks from bankruptcy’.

I find this very difficult to believe and will be astonished if true. Garth what survey was that and where is it posted?

Google it. MNP. – Garth

#93 Oracle of Ottawa on 03.30.20 at 6:17 pm

Went for a walk today and it’s the first time I noticed people staying 6 feet away when passing. I guess we’re in the “fear” section of the chart Ryan posted on Saturday. Still away to go before thing’s get back to normal.

#94 Steve French on 03.30.20 at 6:18 pm

The problem with Garth’s position is that after strict distancing and quarantine measures are put into place, some time later the pandemic will hopefully be placed under some control, with limited loss of life.

Then Garth can sit back and say:

“See– I was right! The whole thing was overblown. The Trudeau government overreacted!”

Well, no. It is not an over-reaction. These measures are what will stop a major health crisis from morphing into a complete s**t tsunami.

It’s a strategic position that I guess is aimed at boosting his own credibility and standing in this crisis.

But actually, it’s not very helpful.

With all due respect, you are still behind the curve on this Sir Garth.

My ‘position’ is we’d better be damn sure about the pay-off for shutting down the economy. Many are suffering for it. Parliament is shut. Debate is gone. Anyone asking questions about political actions is branded by people (like you) as having a personal agenda. That is ad hominem, and the mark of a muddled mind. You can do better. – Garth

#95 akashic record on 03.30.20 at 6:20 pm

#79 butter upon bacon

Sorry guy… you have savings. Your role is to pay for the bailout, that’s what you qualify for from the government.

#96 NoName on 03.30.20 at 6:20 pm

#83 Nonplused on 03.30.20 at 6:07 pm
Goldman sees WCS (Alberta oil) dabbling with $0 this year:

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/texas-or-canada-where-will-oil-hit-0-first

That makes no sense, condering the fact that us refiners have hard time refining light oil. They relay on our heavy stuff so that process and equipment needs no upgrading. If I remember correctly refined mix now is 50/50. And they sell sulfur one of buy products for profit too.

#97 BS on 03.30.20 at 6:20 pm

Alternative lenders halt redemptions, signaling mortgage cracks

Some of Canada’s biggest non-bank commercial mortgage lenders are freezing redemptions as investors try to flee the asset class.

Like with all housing busts credit contracts first.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/real-estate/video/alternative-lenders-halt-redemptions-signaling-mortgage-cracks~1930073

#98 YouKnowWho on 03.30.20 at 6:20 pm

The more I read, the more I learn, the more this looks like a clear Lab escape at the WIV – Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Here is a Feb 22nd piece from NY Times with some chilling quotes and timeline:

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

Here is a quote from one of the main highly respected scientists, who highlighted all the SARS lab “escapes” China has had, and who publicly expressed concern about China rushing to BSL-4 level lab – WIV the Wuhan Institute of Virology being the only BSL-4 lab in China coincidentally. WIV has published research on sequencing over 300 Coronaviruses, and has been doing work infecting HeLa/Human cells with these hybridized version of SARS Coronaviruses.

Also, pay attention to the BSL-2 part – how other labs in and around Wuhan study SARS and Coronaviruses at much much lower biosafety levels.

>>
Except for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, two deadly viruses that have caused outbreaks in the past, coronaviruses have been studied at laboratories that are labelled as operating at a moderate biosafety level known as BSL-2, Ebright says. And, he says, bat coronaviruses have been studied at such labs in and around Wuhan, China, where the new coronavirus first emerged. “As a result,” Ebright says, “bat coronaviruses at Wuhan [Center for Disease Control] and Wuhan Institute of Virology routinely were collected and studied at BSL-2, which provides only minimal protections against infection of lab workers.”

https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/experts-know-the-new-coronavirus-is-not-a-bioweapon-they-disagree-on-whether-it-could-have-leaked-from-a-research-lab/

#99 NoName on 03.30.20 at 6:23 pm

@nonaplaused

I get reading zero dude, causless renal, but anything from Goldman first thing I think they are making lemonade…

#100 Steven Rowlandson on 03.30.20 at 6:24 pm

“No showings, no sales. No sales, no market.”

After looking at the Kijiji real estate listings for Barrie it does not look like there has been any panic among real estate investors. No capitulation yet. Perhaps they think that if they stonewall the market that impoverished workers will some how bend over and make these genocidal real estate fanatics rich. It is highly unlikely to happen. We may however see something worse than the 1930s. All that debt could go bye, bye and home and land prices could go poof for lack of income support. You can’t get blood out of a rock.

#101 oh bouy on 03.30.20 at 6:24 pm

@#74 Marco on 03.30.20 at 6:00 pm
We’re all not in this together. For example Richard Branson creep is sitting this out on his island (maybe his friend Barack is with him, because is not usual for him not to stab orange dude regularly). After this pass his capitalist cronies will bail out his grounded company. So do not pay the rent you unwashed masses from slums and press for universal income.
_____________________

privatize the profits, socialize the losses
– rich branson

honestly don’t know if he said that, but he could have :)

#102 Sail away on 03.30.20 at 6:27 pm

Now this. This is a dangerous virus… for rabbits. A similar novel virus for humans would be truly catastrophic:

Rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) is a novel rabbit calicivirus in the genus Lagovirus causing acute hepatic necrosis in European rabbits, leading to disseminated intravascular coagulation and death in >90% of susceptible animals

#103 MF on 03.30.20 at 6:29 pm

52 Abc123 on 03.30.20 at

Not likely.

Real estate is slow to rise and slow to fall. Massive unemployment is its weakness, because of the leverage. And in the gta, its ALL leverage.

And lol at anyone who think life will just go on after this.

MF

#104 Reality is stark on 03.30.20 at 6:29 pm

Why would a socialist pay rent?
These are people who only require accountability from you not from themselves.
They’ll take the $2,000.00 cheque. But the horrible capitalist landlord can stuff himself.
They have expectations of you not of themselves. They expect you to get up at 5:00 a.m. for work. They will get up when they damn well please.
As Jack Nicholson said in “As good as it gets” just take away reason and accountability.
Pay your taxes and your family court settlement.
They want your money and they’ll come right to your front door to get it.

#105 Drinking on 03.30.20 at 6:29 pm

That video was priceless! :)

#106 Penny Henny on 03.30.20 at 6:31 pm

#34 not 1st on 03.30.20 at 5:08 pm
#4 Virus on 03.30.20 at 4:29 pm

That’s great, then what is your solution for restarting the smoking rotting corpse of an economy that will be left?

//////////////////

Canadian government is giving everyone money!

Business revenues down by 30%.
Gov’s got your back, will pay your payroll.
Once things are allowed to open up again the pent up spending will be huge.
At least there will be no depression.

#107 DFO on 03.30.20 at 6:32 pm

Who cares about stats when it’s clear hospitals are over capacity. This means every single non covid 19 illness/injury/whatever will not be treated. This is why you idiots who aren’t taking precautions are idiots. Garth seems to be ignoring how many flu cases are actually making it to the ER and what impact they have on hospitals.

The other things that are becoming clear. Deficit spending isn’t an actual issue. Corporations are so well managed that a 1 month long dip in sales requires billions in aid. And poor people aren’t supported not due to a lack of money but due to a lack of empathy and unwillingness to acknowledge the real costs of poverty VS austerity.

#108 Terry on 03.30.20 at 6:35 pm

Just the facts for only 13 minutes of your time……….if you want to listen?

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238721

Now you know where we are headed. Good Luck.

#109 the Jaguar on 03.30.20 at 6:38 pm

The FDA has approved emergency use of the Malaria drug Trump made reference to at his recent press conference, and also an “instant test” for the horrid Covid-19. Takes 5 -13 minutes for the result.
Every economic concern Garth has put forth is a legitimate one, and part of me really thinks society had it coming. ( see Garth’s Post ‘The Emergency’, March 26th—Bang on!). Real estate listings have certainly evaporated, and it’s a productivity race between Banks and Service Canada to see who can process the most requests for financial relief. As for the oil business, this latest crisis is hardly the first “let down” washing up on the beach. The current one a result of Saudi throwing a temper tantrum and Putin not blinking. Somehow that stings a little less than your own countrymen and government trying to drown or suffocate your every effort to keep your industry alive. Hard times are nothing new to Albertans, and though many will feel the pain, we still have a lot going for us here. We have a proud agricultural tradition, a surprising number of other companies that find it agreeable to do business here including Amazon, and a very resilient population.
We’ll see who is still standing when it’s all over. I will put my faith in the great province of Alberta.

#110 Calgary retiree on 03.30.20 at 6:39 pm

“Thus far we have had 67 Covid fatalities.”
—————————————————–

Yes, thus far.

Unlike financial markets, the spread of viral contagion is not that hard to predict. Uncontrolled, it will be exponential. As I showed in my post yesterday, it may take just a few months to reach 60% of the population.

Based on 37 million Canadians and a 1% fatality rate that would result in 222,000 fatalities.

Yes, the economic impact of the control measures will be disastrous, but do not misrepresent the pandemic as a minor medical issue

When the infection rate was far less than one-tenth of one per cent in China, why will it be 60% here? Curious. – Garth

#111 Mattl on 03.30.20 at 6:40 pm

#79: homeowners are not getting bailed out. If they are , please point me to where I get my free money cause as an employed homeowner there is zero in this package for my family. Actually thats not true, I pay effective 40 percent tax, so the result will be more tax over the next decade, likely 6 figures worth.

2k plus EI? Nope, my wife makes less then 5k so we don’t get that one.

Increase to childcare benefit? Ya no, we are means tested out of that one.

The BC 500 dollar per renter? Nope, we own our home.

Literally nothing in an 80b package for my one income family.

The majority of the stimulus is targeted to to lower, under employed Canadians. This group is majority renters. So enough with the bail out homeowners BS. Simply not true, there is nothing in the Trudeau package specifically for homeowners.

The banks are voluntarily deferring payments, which will lengthen the term. A nice gesture for those that lost their jobs but hardly a giveaway. And again, this homeowner doesn’t qualify. And I don’t have one person in my peer group, mostly homeowners, that qualifies for anything.

#112 Lost...but not leased on 03.30.20 at 6:41 pm

“Rent Strike”…

What I foresee will be a bit of a lull, as Landlords won’t know how to react. Give it a month or so…it all depends on mortgages in existence.

Some Landlords will be caught in a position of “Cutting Losses”…and will begin to retaliate –err respond to market conditions…. with cutting off of utilities, ie gas/electric/water….I am not aware of any law that obligates them to further subsidize tenants.

Then the “fun” begins….

#113 Trojan House on 03.30.20 at 6:41 pm

It is obvious by all the comments on here so far, and in the last couple of weeks, that a lot of people are extremely panicked by the virus and following the sentiment that it will spread exponentially therefore we must shelter in place lest everyone get it, and a portion of those who do will be pushing up daisies.

Seems to me that humans are only linear thinkers and most of us do not look at future outcomes (massive personal debt) nor do we look at external factors that cause the outcomes. Climate change is a really good example of this. The climate is changing, humans pollute therefore it is humans that cause climate change. Nevermind all the external factors that could potentially cause the climate to change like a solar minimum for example.

Same goes with this virus. It is great to look at what the federal government is doing without really thinking about the effect on the future. We only see that this the solution for right now but we can’t stop and think what $130 billion plus deficits, and in a few years time a trillion dollar debt, will do to Canada and Canadians. It’s like dropping a pebble in the water and watching the ripples fan out in every direction. All those ripples are possible outcomes. For example, there may be no money to put towards the homeless, therefore, countless thousands more die.

Regardless of the outcome of the virus, it certainly has set us on the path of the great unknown. I can see number of possible outcomes as outlined above – like a UBI forever (I believe another commenter mentioned it as well). What do others think? Break out the crystal ball for a moment and think about it.

#114 Roman Reality on 03.30.20 at 6:43 pm

Garth,
I know its not intentional because I know its not in you. However, some of your comments may be misleading people into believing the Covid threat is less than the common Flu. I have family in Northern Italy. Some are in law enforcement, some in the medical field, others in engineering. Every year they experience the common flu like the rest of us do. Interestingly, their hospitals and emergency respondents have never seen ANY event such as this. My wife is a health-care worker at the local hospital where people way smarter about this stuff than you and I are scared to death for the communities they serve. So to think that we should just sit back and think of this as nothing more than another inconvenience like the flu is incredibly naive and disrespectful to those suffering pain in epic proportions.

Because I am not paralyzed with fear does not mean I ‘sit back and think of this as nothing.’ Would you rather I panic? What exactly are you asking for? We’re destroying an economy and seriously indebting the next generation. As stated, we should all pray the sacrifice was worth it. – Garth

#115 Mike on 03.30.20 at 6:45 pm

Advanced Toronto RE sales:
* Freeholds: -42% yoy
* Condos: -47% yoy

https://twitter.com/areacode416/status/1244705088343552000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1244705088343552000&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html%231244705088343552000

#116 Tony on 03.30.20 at 6:46 pm

Re: #4 Virus on 03.30.20 at 4:29 pm

I believe the opposite is true. We’ll see in time if all the people in the GTA previously being exposed to Sars and the Asian flu are less likely to die. So far this theory is true the Canadian death rate is very low.

#117 James on 03.30.20 at 6:47 pm

Garth, just wondering, how do Dorothy and Bandit feel about the video clip you posted tonight?

(Dude, you might wanna play nice, you know it can get pretty boring staying indoors, might wanna have some friends to …play with, if you know what I mean…..)

#118 mark on 03.30.20 at 6:47 pm

Watch refineries declare force majeure here very soon.

#119 Attrition on 03.30.20 at 6:47 pm

#74 not 1st on 03.30.20 at 5:58 pm

But the one thing that’s evident is how weak we are as a society. Scared of shadows around the corner, running to hide behind the skirt of big govt. Putting zero effort to making your life resilient, and a leader cowering in his own cottage popping out like a broken cuckoo clock every day to spout platitudes to the drooling masses.

And they, by and large, lap it up like fish tossed to so many seals. They get the govt they deserve, but there are a whole hellofa lot of us who get a govt we do not deserve.

#120 Don on 03.30.20 at 6:48 pm

I think Garth’s point is correct. What we are bdoing is the worst of all solutions. We are only suppressing the curve for a short time. The virus is still there and the 2nd wave would come around in our traditional flu season possibly doing even more damage. Hoping for enough ventilators is not really an option as the survival rate once you need one is grim. In the meantime we have destroyed what was already a shaky economic situayion

#121 Tony on 03.30.20 at 6:54 pm

Re: #79 butter upon bacon on 03.30.20 at 6:04 pm

Make a beeline for Tangerine their parent company is one of the big 5. Once the liquidity crunch ends you’re screwed. My guess is you have only a few more days and will never see rates like this again.
Tangerine Bank
Mar 30
2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20

#122 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.30.20 at 6:54 pm

#54 Nonplused on 03.30.20 at 5:37 pm
1. There is no way you are going to get countries as diverse and antagonistic towards each other as China, the US, Russia, Iran, Europe, Asia, and South America to agree to and coordinate such an effort.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Until you realize that there already exists a world government. Why do you think that there has been an identical response worldwide to Covid? The inter-national antagonism is just for show.

#123 Jay on 03.30.20 at 7:01 pm

Alberta will crash and burn and everyone out east will cheer and say things like “should have diversified” and “all eggs in one basket” and the like. They will laugh until they realize the money has stopped flowing east.

Oh well, soon this will be over and we can get back to self destructing our own economy in the name of climate change instead.

#124 Love Statistics on 03.30.20 at 7:03 pm

Statistics is always manipulated to suit the persons objective.
Here’s one…..
1.5 million applied for unemployment in two weeks. Now get your pencils out. 15.5 million Canadians work.
But everyone focuses on comparing this to last year and the previous month
14 million people are working and we will all be back to work in mid May June at the latest.

It’s very sad the way everyone panic
Common sense …. in January we should have tested everyone entering the country and guess what none of this would have happened. Duh!

Looking at Total cases in Canada 7,418 and 86 deaths.
Yes it is a moving target during the day got it.

I can never get a good picture on how many tested.
But again this skews results as they only test people who have come in contact with an affected person.
Again Statistically it can be misleading.

The cases doubled in six days, maybe it will double in another 6 or someone will say but exponentially it will be higher yeah whatever!
In 6 more days 16,000 cases, and maybe 6 days after that
32,000 cases and that will be the peak.
86 deaths double and double 320 and add a few more old folks maybe 400.

And then it’s all over.

Anyway in 7 to 10 days will will know the answer to this mess. Since we are all in self isolation then this will blow out in 14 days from start of self isolation right!

I am still predicting a baby boom in 9 months. All that pent up demand.

#125 Jay on 03.30.20 at 7:08 pm

#74 not 1st. We are definitely weak as a society. No one alive has had to fight for what we enjoy or undertake real hardships. People are willing to trade every inch of real freedom we have at the first sign of a little bug.

“Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither Liberty nor safety”. Ben Franklin

#126 James on 03.30.20 at 7:09 pm

There is some hope for an early end to the pandemic and prevention of future reoccurrence:

1) The Phase three trial of Remdevisir, a treatment drug for Covid-19, are due out in mid-April. The same company makes the treatment/cure for Hep C, HIV, etc. The first two phase trials and anecdotal result should great promise in assisting patients in quick recoveries from Covid-19.

2) Multiple companies are pushing forward with vaccines which would prevent a reoccurrence of the virus in the fall or next year. This is super important as virologists have stated that reoccurrence is very likely. A vaccine will almost certainly not be ready until September or more likely 2021.

Keep safe everyone and follow the public safety guidelines.

#127 Government control after the crisis on 03.30.20 at 7:09 pm

Do you remember a few days ago Garth posted something to the effect that government will start controlling our lives.
Here’s an interesting read by

Yuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus | Free to read

https://amp.ft.com/content/19d90308-6858-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75#

Yuval Noah Harari is author of ‘Sapiens’, ‘Homo Deus’ and ‘21 Lessons for the 21 century

It’s really scary so be forewarned your civil liberties are at stake !

#128 Stone on 03.30.20 at 7:10 pm

Kinda funny how up to a month ago Alberta was considering separating from Canada and going its own way because, you know, they’re so great and all.

Along comes a virus and shuts everything down while at the same time an oil war occurs. Soon to be $0/barrel WCS and an undiversified economy to boot.

Great plan!

Where are all the redneck truck nutz blowhards now? Are they now quivering in the same place as the crypto junkies?

#129 Tony on 03.30.20 at 7:11 pm

Re: #66 Sail away on 03.30.20 at 5:48 pm

One of the problems with Covid19 is in many cases we’re seeing an autoimmune response where the immune system attacks the lungs themselves or lung tissue not just the virus.

#130 Parksville Prankster on 03.30.20 at 7:12 pm

I think I’d rather have challenging questions without any complete answers than complete answers that don’t allow any challenging questions.

#131 Mattl on 03.30.20 at 7:13 pm

And for those comparing Covid to a common cold or flu, check out the story from WA state. 60 people attended choir practice on Mar 6, 45 caught the virus of which 5 went to the ICU and 3 died. Crazy

#132 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 03.30.20 at 7:18 pm

It sure looks like the civilized world or the first world has come to the decision that “sacrificing the economy” is a worthwhile and normal decision to save a statistical number of lives which would equal the number of people per year who die from your run-of-the-mill flu. I guess we will have to go back and get out our “depression readers” to see how this plays out. My mom used to tell us stories how the “tramps” showed up at your back door to ask for food and how the “tramps” used to “ride the rails”. Mom and her stories.

#133 Faron on 03.30.20 at 7:21 pm

Great video and thanks for plugging away at this Garth and giving us commenters fodder to debate the pros and cons of what’s going on here.

The ethical questions we are wrestling with are enormous. If we do/did nothing millions would die and the economy would take a smaller hit. Taking the extreme measures we have is whacking the economy hard and keeping infection rates somewhat contained and thus are saving many lives due to COVID but at the cost of potential long-term economic pain and the public health effects that attend large scale poverty.

One thing to keep in mind is that there would also be economic impacts in the do nothing case either through voluntary isolation, through the number of deaths, through the sheer public health cost of caring for the sick, through work refusal etc. It’s not known how big that impact would be, so it’s easy to discount, but it certainly wouldn’t be zero.

Here’s a good article looking at the downsides of our lockdown approach as well as the upsides.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-reopen-analysi/the-us-weighs-the-grim-math-of-death-vs-the-economy-idUSKBN21H1B4

#134 BC Stats on 03.30.20 at 7:25 pm

Total population 5.0 million
Total tested 42,000
Total infected 970
Total recovered 460
Total deaths 19
Now based on last years statistics from Stats Canada
3,500 people died in March 2018 in BC
And we average 3,000 a month
Do you still think this is a crisis?
Todays diversion

Now how many people do you think are at home self isolating and having sex. Now extrapolate that one! And drum role
Statistically speaking how many will get pregnant
Now that will be a strain on health care.
Hot stock tip, buy diaper stocks.

#135 Lost...but not leased on 03.30.20 at 7:27 pm

Because I am not paralyzed with fear does not mean I ‘sit back and think of this as nothing.’ Would you rather I panic? What exactly are you asking for? We’re destroying an economy and seriously indebting the next generation. As stated, we should all pray the sacrifice was worth it. – Garth

================================

Agree Garth…

I am not paralyzed with fear either…but the crystal ball ain’t giving me much comfort either.

We are in UNcharted waters, concurrent with failed leadership.

Toxic combo with long term repercussions.

#136 Faron on 03.30.20 at 7:28 pm

Another thing to keep in mind for you conspiracy minded folks is this: the stock market lead the political/public reaction to the virus. Equity markets were rosy despite the full month of bad news until the weekend of the 23rd/24th when cases erupted in Iran and Italy.

Markets plunged yet political action and public reaction was almost nil for the better part of a week. There wasn’t (and almost cannot be) conspiracy in the markets. There was fear based selling as well as analyst driven selling when folks calculated what would happen if the virus reached N. America. Finally in the second week it dawned on the politicians (actually the US fed) that action was needed.

From there everything evolved in an ad hoc (making crap up as we go) manner with the Chinese lock-downs and quarantine the only example to follow where results were proven.

Dollars to donuts this would evolve the exact same way under any combination of governments/political spectra. Fumbling in the dark, egos in the mix, and a messy and inefficient solution.

#137 Ronaldo on 03.30.20 at 7:28 pm

#12 Handsome Ned on 03.30.20 at 4:41 pm
I am a retired blue collar guy. About 4 months ago I was reviewing my portfolio with my financial advisor. She assured me how well positioned I was. Mortgage free 450 thousand assessed value condo, paid up 3 year old car, 200 thousand nest egg and a net pension income of 27 thousand per year. Four months later a worthless condo, a nest egg now of 160 thousand soon to be devalued dollars . The other good news is that the company paying my defined benefit pension was on shaky grounds before the virus and is now completely shut down. I guess I am still considered a lucky bastard but can you spell bank bail in. Garth can you recommend tasty pet food
—————————————————————
Ned, if your balanced and diversified portfolio is down 20% you need to fire your advisor. 10.5% should be more like it.

#138 AGuyInVancouver on 03.30.20 at 7:29 pm

#6 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.30.20 at 4:35 pm
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US front man for managing the “pandemic,” has just written an article that ought to be titled: I WAS WRONG AND THIS IS MY CONFESSION.
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/29/turn-the-economy-back-on-even-fauci-is-confessing/
_ _ _
Lol, you realize that oh-so-reputable blog you quoted already had to put up a disclaimer as they had completely misread their source material?

Get your news from the Globe & Mail, not some sketchy blog.

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 7:31 pm

@#87 Roman Reality
Ok.
We get it. Thousands are dying.
But does shooting the economy in the face help?

Does loaning millions of spendthrifts billions of dollars help?
We …are…. killing….the…..economy.
The canuck buck will be toast.
Months of unemployment( if not years) for 15% of the working population? 25%? to hand out a couple of thousand bucks that accomplishes almost nothing?
What does that teach the people that saved nothing for a rainy day?

They can sit back and wait for money to rain down upon them from the govt….

How about just giving them food stamps and gas cards…
And make them wait in long lines for that meagre privilege.

I have ALWAYS had a 3-6 month stash of money set aside for …. a car accident? cancer? lay-off? whatever…

The liberals have set the tone for generations to come to expect “helicopter cash” any time things get rough.

When did people stop preparing for the future and start sitting back and waiting for the govt to provide everything.
Christ its like living back on the East Coast in the early 1980’s again and seeing the endless UI scams…..

What a disaster.,

#140 Sydneysider on 03.30.20 at 7:31 pm

#74 not 1st said it very well.

#29 People Panic

From the link you provided:

“Of the COVID-19 cases reported in Canada to date, approximately half (51%) are male. Approximately one third (29%) of cases are 60 years old and over.”

Approximately half of the cases are female too yet the writer refers to males only. And the number 29% is closer to one quarter than one third, but the writer refers to the latter only.

On top of that, the numbers of newly reported cases are woefully inaccurate. Plotted: 3500 cases; actual reported: 7400. This error is too great to be explained by civil servants not working weekends. More likely, those responsible are not working at all.

#141 APB on 03.30.20 at 7:32 pm

Hey Garth,
I was wondering if I could get your opinion about something. My wife in I are in our mid 30’s. No kids, don’t plan on having any. We have always been good with money. House is paid for. Monthlies are half of monthly net. Put a couple thousand into 60/40 mutual funds every month, maxing our regiatereds first. Good savers. Plus we both have DB pension plans. We have always tried to be responsible with money. Just always seemed like the sensible thing to do. That being said, if there is a shift to a UBI, would that be a good thing? In your opinion, what are the pros and cons of a UBI? Also, if growing gov debt a big deal? Wouldn’t the gov just issue more bonds and try to service the yields? I’m trying to peicw together with litmited knowledge where things go from here, bigger picture.
Cheers,
APB.

#142 Ronaldo on 03.30.20 at 7:36 pm

Actually I have no idea about that, and have offered no opinion. But it seems like many more will suffer from the reaction to the virus than the pathogen itself. Common sense is as required as fear. – Garth
——————————————————————
Common sense, something that appears to be lacking by many. I once heard a story of a little girl who asked her grandpa what he wanted for Christmas. He replied, “a pound of common sense”. So the little girl saved her allowance and a few months later Christmas arrived and she presented her grandpa with his gift. He opened it up and inside he found it filled with pennies, one pound of them. He smiled and thanked her.

#143 NoName on 03.30.20 at 7:38 pm

#117 Mattl on 03.30.20 at 7:13 pm
And for those comparing Covid to a common cold or flu, check out the story from WA state. 60 people attended choir practice on Mar 6, 45 caught the virus of which 5 went to the ICU and 3 died. Crazy

now that you mention choir… short podcast about sound before choir was kicked out and music prohibited… Podcast only 4min interesting.

podcast
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/22/808404928/listen-the-sound-of-the-hagia-sophia-more-than-500-years-ago

choir from portland (two songs)- Lost Voices of Hagia Sophia and
https://cappellaromana.org/product/lost-voices-of-hagia-sophia-medieval-byzantine-chant/

#144 YouKnowWho on 03.30.20 at 7:38 pm

Garth,

Politicians should never waste a crisis.

The way Justin is playing this, is exactly the way he should, and the way his extensive Drama training dictates.

He’s playing with Other People’s Money.
He looks like a saviour to many – buying them votes.
If he gets re-elected, he’ll have majority.
If he doesn’t get re-elected he’ll leave a steaming pile of crap for the Cons next time around.

Bottom line – where is the down side?

WIN – WIN Baby!

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 7:40 pm

@#128 Out of Work, ride the rail.
“My mom used to tell us stories how the “tramps” showed up at your back door to ask for food and how the “tramps” used to “ride the rails”. Mom and her stories.”
++++

Thats what your grandkids can say about you… old timer.
You can regale them with the time your internet was cut off for months and you had to play solitaire with a real deck of cards.
You know.
The horror stories around the campfire before you put them to bed…….

#146 Bob Dog on 03.30.20 at 7:40 pm

How about some useful info like when will the market bottom so I can pile in. So far we are only back to where things were in 2016 which hardly seems like the economic catastrophe outlines above. The markets were in bubble territory. Anything could have send markets down this far like it did last Dec.

#147 Sold Out on 03.30.20 at 7:43 pm

Oops, looks like Trump sent 17.8 tons of medical supplies to China just as cases were ramping up in the US. Funny, he’s not bragging about it.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/trump-china-coronavirus-shortage-governors_n_5e8179c6c5b66149226a0ff8?ri18n=true

#148 Steve on 03.30.20 at 7:45 pm

Universal income could simplify all government programs from welfare, EI, disability, Athletes support. I think giving money to people versus business is better. Businesses simply look at eliminating competition and create barriers to entry. Let businesses compete for the people’s money.

#149 yvr_lurker on 03.30.20 at 7:46 pm

#91
Well, no. It is not an over-reaction. These measures are what will stop a major health crisis from morphing into a complete s**t tsunami.

———————————–
One key yardstick will be in the end to compare how Canada fares versus the United States, which responded much more sluggishly to the pandemic. They were slow to shut everything down. Moreover, many lower income people did not get tested for Covid19 in the beginning due to the medical costs. To me it is clear that the pandemic in Canada will be much more manageable than across our border. However, even if we have it under control our economy will limp along until most of the western world has it in check. Who knows how long this will be. However, it does annony me for people to compare this to a bad flu or to say that what is going on in NYC or other hotspots is overblown. Those cooler trucks of corpses is not a stage prop set up by CNN.

#150 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 7:48 pm

Geez, 9 months from now….there’s gonna be a ton of Christmas and New Years babies……

#151 Ronaldo on 03.30.20 at 7:49 pm

#35 Deplorable Dude on 03.30.20 at 5:10 pm
The planet has hit the economic self destruct button to save some Boomers.

Our only hope for a speedy resolution is that these pill treatment trials work in New York. First results being reported tomorrow I think.
——————————————————————
Actually, it’s more to save the generation before the boomers. Oldest boomer, me, is 73 and I would like to know of the 61 deaths in Canada, how many were above that age. I would expect that would be the majority.

#152 Sold Out on 03.30.20 at 7:49 pm

Trump lets the cat out of the bag. How Republicans really win elections…

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/trump-republican-party-voting-reform-coronavirus

#153 Yukon Elvis on 03.30.20 at 7:51 pm

#140 YouKnowWho on 03.30.20 at 7:38 pm
Garth,
Politicians should never waste a crisis.
The way Justin is playing this, is exactly the way he should, and the way his extensive Drama training dictates.
He’s playing with Other People’s Money.
He looks like a saviour to many – buying them votes.
If he gets re-elected, he’ll have majority.
If he doesn’t get re-elected he’ll leave a steaming pile of crap for the Cons next time around.
Bottom line – where is the down side?
WIN – WIN Baby!
………………….

Funny. I posted pretty much the same thing a few days ago and got deleted. Does Garth owe you money ?

You were deleted because your comment childishly mocked the prime minister’s name. – Garth

#154 Terry on 03.30.20 at 7:58 pm

Not good………..store fronts in major cities all over the world are getting boarded up. They know whats coming. The bottom is years away everyone. The recovery will take a lifetime after destruction is finished. First their was growth, then stability, then decline………….now it’s time for destruction once again.
After that I expect the Crown, in Canada, to step in and seize all private property and the improvements thereon for the greater good. This is after all financial assets will be confiscated from us. We will all be Tenants of our new Landlord her Majesty the Queen.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/retailers-prepare-civil-unrest-boarded-stores-seen-soho-beverly-hills

#155 Ronaldo on 03.30.20 at 7:58 pm

#45 Timmy

Check this out. This will give you the answer of what to expect with real estate.

https://stevesaretsky.com/

#156 sonnydaze on 03.30.20 at 8:00 pm

I miss Spock.

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one.

One should strive to neutralize cognitive bias.

https://www.pensford.com/why-flattening-the-curve-is-overrated/

#157 not 1st on 03.30.20 at 8:01 pm

#140 YouKnowWho on 03.30.20 at 7:38 pm

The US injected almost 10T into its economy with the intent of bringing it our fast.

Trudeau committed 100B mostly in deferred taxes and mortgage pmts. Canada is no rubber ball, its going to take a lot more inertia to get our economy rolling again and with demand for our top exports in the gutter that’s going to be a monumental challenge. Canadas consumer economy will be offline for a while. Even of a hair salon or restarurant opens up, they will have to get over the virus is everywhere stigma which could be long lasting.

No Trudeau has earned himself a chronic recession that will be 4 quarters long. I suspect the forks and pitchforks will come out for him in the fall. Cant hide in the cottage forever.

#158 Ronaldo on 03.30.20 at 8:01 pm

#51 Niagara Region on 03.30.20 at 5:33 pm
Here is another great website with up-to-the-moment stats on COVID-19 deaths, illnesses, and recoveries:

https://ncov2019.live/

Cars continue to stream past my window on a steady basis. Stay home!

How are people driving cars infecting others? Just curious. – Garth
————————————————————
Yep, there’s that common sense again.

#159 TRON on 03.30.20 at 8:02 pm

‘A survey released Monday shows 49% of us are a few hundred bucks from bankruptcy’.

I find this very difficult to believe and will be astonished if true. Garth what survey was that and where is it posted?

Google it. MNP. – Garth

——————————————————————————————-
Google search showed about how MNP is in a business that relies on people going bankrupt. Also that the survey was a sampling to support a narrative of someone wanting you to believe 49% of Canadians are going bankrupt and not an actual survey we’d expect from an reliable source like Angus Reid. Being short a couple of $100 does not put you in bankruptcy court but certainly is not a good place to be if you don’t make some changes.

#160 Drinking on 03.30.20 at 8:04 pm

#124 Stone

What a stupid post! Most of us were out there working out butts off; paying high taxes to help support the rest of Canada. You know what FU, you Libs are all the same, focus on a couple of loud mouths, ignore the rest of the 99.9 % that have never said a thing; well good luck; got your wish, Alberta is bankrupt, now what??? Hope you will enjoy paying much higher taxes with much lower services, jack ass!!

#161 Garth's Butler on 03.30.20 at 8:07 pm

Garth, What have you done to your portfolio in recent days to weather COVID 19? Are you adding at these levels or waiting for the next epic drop?

#162 John in Mtl on 03.30.20 at 8:08 pm

#4 Virus on 03.30.20 at 4:29 pm

We are little behind the US on the curve.

I think its the other way around; we are in a better position than in the US because we instituted social distancing earlier. However, Tru-Doh! dragged his heels on closing the border, big big mistake. Many provinces acted more quickly than the federal government and it was at their almost screaming insistence that the border was finally closed. Unfortunately, the US is going to get hit big time; go have a look at flightradar24 and tell me how they are not going to infect each other…

In Quebec, we have a lot more cases simply because 1)- our spring break {many travelers out and in} was earlier than most other provinces and; 2)- we are doing a lot more testing at the moment; and 3)- the snowbirds are coming back home.

All those worl-o-meters, SCMP, COVID2019Live.info, Johns-Hopkins, etc. stats websites – you cannot infer ANY conclusions or outcomes from the numbers they present; too much is unreported, wrongly counted and unknown . No one region can compare itself with another and derive useful conclusions from it, its an apples to oranges to pears to watermellons comparison.

A few weeks ago I was questioning how come India had such low infection rates. Look at them now – mega-panic! It’ll take quite a while to get accurate data on what’s happening over there.

#163 GB on 03.30.20 at 8:11 pm

Science to the rescue:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/human-testing-for-johnson-and-johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-this-fall-1.4874581

#164 Lost...but not leased on 03.30.20 at 8:12 pm

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 7:40 pm
@#128 Out of Work, ride the rail.
“My mom used to tell us stories how the “tramps” showed up at your back door to ask for food and how the “tramps” used to “ride the rails”. Mom and her stories.”
++++

Thats what your grandkids can say about you… old timer.
====================

Oh good….

Phartzy is in the bullpen when Dr Phil. catches COVID 19

#165 Calgary retiree on 03.30.20 at 8:13 pm

“When the infection rate was far less than one-tenth of one per cent in China, why will it be 60% here? Curious. – Garth”
—————————————-

Please note that I stated it would be about 60% after three months of uncontrolled progression. Merkel predicted possibly 70% in Germany. China actively intervened as do we. Are you basing your Chinese infection rate on the total China population?

Did you base your Canadian infection rate on the total Canada population? – Garth

#166 East Coast Life Style on 03.30.20 at 8:18 pm

Smoking Man was so unbelievably right.

You warned us Smokey!

#167 MF on 03.30.20 at 8:19 pm

#121 Love Statistics on 03.30.20 at 7:03 pm

Like i posted about a few days ago, the baby boom will come AFTER the quarantine is over. Now that is the pent up demand you talk about… :)

However, there will be a concurrent increase in divorces from long term couples being couped up too long with no where to go. Any cracks in the relationship are now being magnified.

Lots of cranky people out there….for various “reasons”.

MF

#168 Obvious on 03.30.20 at 8:19 pm

Yes people some people are within a few hundred bucks of insolvency. However, they will have choices. No internet, no eating out, no vacations, Walmart clothes, and the like. A whole generation is going to learn a new word…thrift

#169 yorkville renter on 03.30.20 at 8:25 pm

Is Robert an Infectious Disease professional? What does Robert do to qualify his opinion as anything other than opinion?

Genuine question.

Otherwise, it’s just another opinion

#170 Marco on 03.30.20 at 8:25 pm

Actually it is pathetic how often people ask for private financial advice here.
For free, off course. In the country in which every information is for sale and
just curses and profanities you get for free.

#171 rob on 03.30.20 at 8:26 pm

Scientists claim China is lying about total coronavirus COVID-19 cases

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/71531/scientists-claim-china-is-lying-about-total-coronavirus-covid-19-cases/index.html

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

#172 Keep Your Rent Everyone on 03.30.20 at 8:29 pm

Looking forward to having some more money to spend on Uber Eats on Wednesday :)

Come May 1, street party here we come!

#173 Deplorable Dude on 03.30.20 at 8:37 pm

To quote Mr Spock…

“The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few”.

Quarantine granny, get the rest of the planet back to work, and let the chips fall where they may.

#174 JohnSSaccy on 03.30.20 at 8:38 pm

Not from some sketchy blog:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0GFFjszgPjRcMc522Iuv2bGyqUtD5mFqBdYecjJDwcbt4vmL5z8LiOmbY#Echobox=1585530212

WUHAN COVID-19 DEATH TOLL MAY BE IN TENS OF THOUSANDS, DATA ON CREMATIONS AND SHIPMENTS OF URNS SUGGEST

#175 Blog Dog du Jour on 03.30.20 at 8:40 pm

Covid deaths should, legally, have to be published along with the pre-existing illnesses and conditions of the patient.

Without this the statistics are less than meaningless they are misleading the world. Most deaths had two or more serious terminal or chronic illnesses and age of death was very close to the national average. I mean help all of us put this into the most honest context possible, please. Do not obscure any data or facts.

Consider the annual deaths in Canada from ALL causes. Take for example work place accidents, likely 10,000. Car accidents around 2,000.

The WHO and epis don’t have perfect track record either: H1N1

#176 Barb on 03.30.20 at 8:43 pm

“Gas is finally cheap but we are not allowed to go anywhere”

—————————————–

What a crock!
Fill the tank, get in the car with the family (after everyone’s had a pee at home), bring snacks or sandwiches, DRIVE and see the countryside, the cattle and sheep in the fields, the daffodils coming up, the trees shedding needles after a windstorm, that pretty lake where you’d like to fish, that gorgeous German Shepherd guarding the long driveway of that weird looking house.

Go!
A great getaway!

Otherwise, ask yourself why we Canadians are so bloody submissive.

#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 8:55 pm

@#142 Bob Dog
“How about some useful info like when will the market bottom so I can pile in. ”
++++

Well.
If Garth told us all when the market was at the bottom.
And we all jumped in and made a killing.
The authorities would realize there was market manipulation and arrest Garth.
Garth would then be forced to admit he’s actually a space/time traveler from Nictonite.
Smoking Man, Garth, Matt Damon…..all the decent aliens would have to leave.
Then we’d be stuck with the weird ones, Trudeau, Freeland , Trump…..
So.
No.
He’s not giving you free advice.

The

#178 Stone on 03.30.20 at 8:59 pm

#142 Bob Dog on 03.30.20 at 7:40 pm
How about some useful info like when will the market bottom so I can pile in. So far we are only back to where things were in 2016 which hardly seems like the economic catastrophe outlines above. The markets were in bubble territory. Anything could have send markets down this far like it did last Dec.

———

Sorry to say this but you already missed the bottom. Oh well. Better luck next time. Greed sucks, doesn’t it?

#179 Attrition on 03.30.20 at 8:59 pm

#162 Barb on 03.30.20 at 8:43 pm

Otherwise, ask yourself why we Canadians are so bloody submissive.

A question too often asked, never answered.

#180 Wait There on 03.30.20 at 9:00 pm

In times like this we need leaders who can assess risk reward quickly and have balls to do so knowing that it is never a win win solution every time. That’s what we need someone who is fearless of what is up ahead.

I am sorry but our Prime Minister just does not have what it takes to show that. He’s not even thinking of what next……. in the coming months. Prime Minister not in waiting but in hiding. No experience of risk taking in the real world and it shows. Canadians will follow along and also hide till it is over even if it takes 18 months. Show some backbone…or do you know what that is?
For the haters of the USA. They will lead the world out of this. Not Trudeau.
Do not forget what could have been….what if they had impeached and charged the President of the United States in January. Just think for a moment where we would be.

#181 Figmund Sreud on 03.30.20 at 9:01 pm

Timely question, “Is the U.S. Able to Handle COVID-19?”

Longish snip, first:

The issue of the virus is not manufactured, (though there are still many in the U.S., who regard it as an overblown scare), nor is the dilemma of the divergent timelines. Actually – a great deal hangs on how these timelines play out – our global economic and political prospects, no less.

Just about everyone and his dog now claims to have modelled Covid-19. But in truth, we still know very little on which to accurately predict the virus’ course. The ‘data’ is made unreliable: firstly, because not only does the virus have different mutations, but secondly, owing to it acting in two quite different modes: One is mild, or even asymptomatic (the 80%); and the second mode is serious (requiring hospitalisation) – and for a minority of the 20% – deadly.

But consequently, we simply do not know how much of the population is infected, or is still to be infected – precisely owing to its very mildness or, its asymptomatic characteristics amongst the 80 percent-ers. There hasn’t been enough testing – and anyway, given its mild or non-noticeable iteration, many people may have it, but don’t test.

… full story:

Is the U.S. Able to Handle COVID-19? – Global Prospects Hang on This Question
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/03/30/is-theus-able-handle-covid-19-global-prospects-hang-on-this-question/

Best,

F.S.

#182 oh bouy on 03.30.20 at 9:03 pm

@#143 Terry on 03.30.20 at 7:58 pm
Not good………..store fronts in major cities all over the world are getting boarded up. They know whats coming. The bottom is years away everyone. The recovery will take a lifetime after destruction is finished. First their was growth, then stability, then decline………….now it’s time for destruction once again.
After that I expect the Crown, in Canada, to step in and seize all private property and the improvements thereon for the greater good. This is after all financial assets will be confiscated from us. We will all be Tenants of our new Landlord her Majesty the Queen.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/retailers-prepare-civil-unrest-boarded-stores-seen-soho-beverly-hills
__________________________________

Dude! your blood pressure is saying maybe steer clear of that zerohedge nonsense.

#183 akashic record on 03.30.20 at 9:04 pm

“My ‘position’ is we’d better be damn sure about the pay-off for shutting down the economy.”

Nobody is damn sure about any of this. Not even sure – at all.

It’s placing all the chips to the most magic-looking spot on the roulette table. You win, you win big, you lose you lose big.

This is not an act of what you call “investing”.
No damn sure average 6-7% return.

#184 devore on 03.30.20 at 9:08 pm

I wonder how many will die as a result of the response. Unfortunately, direct virus deaths are easy to count. They are easy to attribute. They are immediate. Deaths due to lost/diminished income, stress, reduced lifetime income, and lowered standard of living will be immeasurable over the next 10-20 years. And just like economic consequences that aren’t full realized until years down the road, no one will connect the dots and learn anything.

Two weeks of a minor personal financial shock (lost/delayed paycheck) has put millions of Canadians on the brink of homelessness, many of whom are calling openly for outright communism. All the while the economy and industry that ISN’T shut down is operating just fine, while governments struggle to do anything, other than lock people up in their homes and force unemployment. This is not the time to look to government for anything constructive.

Also, turn off CNN, their job is to keep scaring you to keep your eyeballs glued to their ad breaks.

#185 CalgaryCarGuy on 03.30.20 at 9:09 pm

Re #124 by Stone
What I would like to say to you Garth won’t print but it has to do with sex and travel. The sentiment for Albertans to leave is still there because Trudeau and the Liberals are still in government. Period. Get it? Although financially behind the 8 ball right now we are still, and always will be, the toughest most resilient province in this whole country. Just like Jaguar said a few posts back. So bite me.

#186 AR on 03.30.20 at 9:18 pm

https://amp-theatlantic-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/608719/

Millions could die in the US. Trump botched the initial response badly. Best case a few hundred thousand die. It is more contagious and has a higher mortality rate than the flu. And sadly it’s not going away anytime soon.

#187 Flop... on 03.30.20 at 9:21 pm

#148 Sold Out on 03.30.20 at 7:49 pm

Trump lets the cat out of the bag. How Republicans really win elections…

/////////////

Hey Soldie.

I believe that is the old version of the saying.

New version.

The bats out of the bag now…

M45BC

#188 Gino on 03.30.20 at 9:23 pm

Olympics cancelled. Pride parade still a go.
Garth I don’t ever read you write about governments injecting trillions of fake money into the markets as another reason why things are tanking. Virus is a catalyst not a cause.

#189 gfd on 03.30.20 at 9:24 pm

China’s PMIs Preview: Enjoy those blue skies while you still can, manufacturing is back.

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/chinas-pmis-preview-enjoy-those-blue-skies-while-you-still-can-manufacturing-is-back-202003302248?utm_source=onesignal&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=analysis

#190 J on 03.30.20 at 9:24 pm

I am reminded of a wonderful quote from Frank Herbert, author of Dune. “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer”. It seems to me that more fear and less rational thought is driving some boundless government decisions.

I’m older than average. Decided to go back to school. The primary thing we are taught is to think critically. Of everything we read and hear. Even “reliable” sources such as respected journals or “expert opinions”.

Garth is prudent in asking tough questions over the past several weeks. I see very little debate happening, and a lot of fear mongering, especially from a variety of media sources. More discussion is required. We need to clearly understand consequences from various strategies. COVID-19 is obviously a serious problem, but we should think very hard about the strategy being employed. I don’t see all of South Korea essentially shut down. Nor Singapore. Nor China. The virus is not rampant in those countries. What steps have they taken that Canada has not?

Maybe the Canadian governments are taking the best possible steps. However, consider these questions… Are governments positioning the nation to minimize the health impact of COVID-19, yet ensuring that the economy can still function at the best level possible during the crisis? Will my children be paying for the government’s actions for the rest of their lives? Will other serious issues such as domestic abuse, alcoholism, drug use, suicide, and depression skyrocket as a result of current policies? Is there a better way to safely isolate people identified as vulnerable, allowing others to continue to work and contribute to society while still maintaining new social distance practices? If so, will the health care system still be able to cope with expected severe illness from otherwise healthy people (i.e. still keep the “curve flattened”)?

There are many other questions that could and should be debated.

#191 not 1st on 03.30.20 at 9:26 pm

#124 Stone on 03.30.20 at 7:10 pm
—-

Well I know how to get a 40% increase in our crude price and 13B in our pockets and endless pipelines to our door with the stroke of a pen.

Better wake up, there is no version of Canada coming out of this without our resource wealth (ie oil) leading it.

#192 M.T. on 03.30.20 at 9:30 pm

“Either the overwhelming majority of medical professionals in the world (and the government officials they go on to advise) are correct about this virus,”

Speaking as a medical professional (physician), this is bogus. It’s reminiscent of the “overwhelming majority of scientists who support global warming” BS. Nope, reality is that 99% of us physicians have no idea what’s going on either. How could we, any more than anyone else, when the virus is so new and so little is known about it?

I’m hopeful for that TrumpCure though.

#193 Yukon Elvis on 03.30.20 at 9:32 pm

Funny. I posted pretty much the same thing a few days ago and got deleted. Does Garth owe you money ?

You were deleted because your comment childishly mocked the prime minister’s name. – Garth
………………………..

Writing this down. He Who Must Not Be Mocked. Thou shalt not take his name in vain. Got it.

Same rules for all public figures, when I catch it. Grow up. – Garth

#194 slick on 03.30.20 at 9:35 pm

#132 Faron
North america never took this virus serious until the NBA cancelled that first game. 4 hours later, the season was essentially over.
NhL a day later.

#195 Wrk.dover on 03.30.20 at 9:35 pm

Every.Person.Wears.A.Mask.

You cough in your mask, no droplets in my mask.

virus starves to death.

there is no story to tell.

#196 T. on 03.30.20 at 9:36 pm

**Scientists have examined COVID-19, and it shows all of the earmarks of natural development**

That’s the same dude who can’t see the obvious design everywhere in the natural world, I wouldn’t trust anything he says on the topic.

#197 AB on 03.30.20 at 9:55 pm

Émile #7
Good on you Sir. These are the days to be thankful. We just returned early from our New Zealand trip where they went full scale Communist( their PM is actually a Communist). Manufacturing hysteria for government control. It worked. Insane there. We got back to Canada by the grace of God, the Americans and an experienced travel agent. The Novotel at the Auckland airport would not let us out. They said” The Government has taken over the hotel” . I made a big stink and the manager finally let us out. Four layers of exit controls to get to our gate at the airport. Was never so glad to get home. Will enjoy our two weeks isolation at home. As soon as we reached the USA, we could breathe. God bless America! True friends are there in a crisis!

#198 will on 03.30.20 at 10:01 pm

#172 Barb

that’s what i’m thinking of doing. rent a (sanitized) car, and head out on a road trip. i’ve got 4 weeks vacation coming and lots of destinations in mind. i wonder, are campgrounds on lockdown?

#199 Reality is stark on 03.30.20 at 10:11 pm

Global news article bragging about how our country is so much better prepared with lots of ventilators at the ready should we need them.
Guess what? Lots of people know how to read.
We have stated that we will be turning asylum seekers back at the border temporarily during this crisis.
All well and good.
However sick New Yorkers will be coming across by the thousands and I’ll let you in on a little secret. The U.S. will not take them back when they are sick.
You can figure the rest out yourselves.

#200 Harrison Bergeron on 03.30.20 at 10:15 pm

Jordan Peterson reading ‘Harrison Bergeron’ is available on YT for those in the balcony who can’t hear Garth…..

#201 JohnAB on 03.30.20 at 10:20 pm

#85 butter upon bacon on 03.30.20 at 6:11 pm

It’s simple: no government wants a RE crash on their watch. They will try to keep it up, they will start giving away money, and I’m not gonna be too surprised if they will start paying for the mortgages of the ones who overstreched lol….
I mean, why do I pay on average ~39% taxes from my income? So I could have a bigger downpayment and a lower mortgage? Nooo! So others get free money! Sound fair, no? :(((

#202 bob on 03.30.20 at 10:22 pm

To answer your question Garth:

When the infection rate was far less than one-tenth of one per cent in China, why will it be 60% here? Curious. – Garth


You can’t have it both ways. You can’t say China got out unscathed, it only took 2 months… and then think this is no big deal.

Examples:
e.g. https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-coronavirus-quarantines-other-countries-arent-ready-2020-3
* China did lots of testing (Ontario has a huge backlog)
* China rushed to build new hospital (Canada, we have hallway medicine)
* China shut down the city, e.g. trains didn’t stop in Wuhan (um, TTC and GO train still running)
* China walled off hospital wards to separate patients (Did I mention hallway medicine?)
* China had security checks and used technology to track people’s movements (Have you seen anyone wear a quarantine bracelet here?)
* China, people wear masks, it is socially acceptable (Canada, we have a shortage! Hospitals ration doctors 1 mask a day!)


Now, did China have social programs to pay laid off workers?

That is a separate and distinct discussion about Canada willing to spend huge sums of money.We can argue if we should be providing wage subsidies, rent relief, etc.

** But do not CONFLATE the issue. Don’t shrug off the seriousness of this virus! (please)


(aside, I even heard China had drones to monitor its citizens). And this is what it took to get back to normal in 2 months. I think Canada will take more than 2 months, and I think more strict measures are coming.

#203 Flop... on 03.30.20 at 10:25 pm

#148 Sold Out on 03.30.20 at 7:49 pm
Trump lets the cat out of the bag. How Republicans really win elections…

//////////////////////

Hey Soldie.

I believe that’s the old version of the saying.

New version.

The bats out of the bag now…

M45BC

#204 MF on 03.30.20 at 10:26 pm

#174 Stone on 03.30.20 at 8:59 pm

The bottom was 2 trillion ago.

MF

#205 MaryEn on 03.30.20 at 10:40 pm

If renters don’t pay rents and government does not protect private property rights, landlords have an ethical right to not pay any property related tax.

Btw. I’m renter and will pay my coming rent as any other service or good I use. It’s not a question of money but dignity!

#206 mark on 03.30.20 at 10:40 pm

Do ya think i will be spared from corona virus?

15% – ZPR
15%- VEQT
5%- SU $24.00 averaged on way down.
15%- CGL.T
10%- VSB
10%- ZFL
15% – ZPR
15% – XEC EM.

I can beat this Chinese flu. Down 9% to date, dumped the 2 equities so 30% cash.

#207 Attrition on 03.30.20 at 10:40 pm

God bless America! True friends are there in a crisis!

Here here!

It never fails to unsettle me when I see how many Canadians take every benefit Americans graciously bestow upon us, and return only scorn, disdain, smugness and self righteousness.

Americans treat us like kin.
We treat them like garbage.

Remember those first flights outta Japan when Covid hit? Weeks until a Canadian chartered plane could arrive.

“No problem,” said the Americans, “we got room on ours.”

I think they took like 60 Canadians home on one flight.

When this happened, I wondered why none of the Canadians–surely, the vast majority anti-Trumpers, better than Americans, etc.–didn’t stand on principle and refuse the offer and remain on that cruise ship off Yokohama. I’d love to see their Twitter feeds. How many anti-American sentiments expressed over the months prior.

Most of the world’s peoples know how to graciously accept a kindness or preferential treatment. Not canuckle-heads tho.

To any Americans reading: rest assured many, many Canadians appreciate your benevolence towards and tolerance of us, the little pinko flea on your shoulder.

#208 mark on 03.30.20 at 10:42 pm

one fund should be ZRE typo.

#209 Sail Away on 03.30.20 at 10:53 pm

#185 Reality is stark on 03.30.20 at 10:11 pm

We have stated that we will be turning asylum seekers back at the border temporarily during this crisis.

However sick New Yorkers will be coming across by the thousands and I’ll let you in on a little secret. The U.S. will not take them back when they are sick.

You can figure the rest out yourselves.

——————

Ooh, ooh: let me give it a shot!

Sick (and well) New Yorkers will flood the country while Canadian border control maintains social distancing and avoids contact at all costs. Once here, the sick-ers will look around and say, ‘Not bad’, overtake all hospitals, and, wresting ventilators from existing patients, will self-heal themselves.

After that, it will be like the war of 1812 in reverse. The New Yorkers will march on Ottawa as Canadians scatter like shoppers before crowdedelevatorcoughz. When tired, the NY army will commandeer houses, sending resident fleeing from their (the New Yorkers’) droplets.

Upon reaching Ottawa, they will drag Justin from his cubbyhole, much like Saddam Hussein, and proceed to intimidate him with heavy, Darth Vader-like breathing. Sophie will consider saving him, then decide to instead take up with a bad boy from the gang. Canada will fall like a house of cards, with Justin sobbing piteously in the background, crying out from time to time ‘Why me? Why, cruel world?’

That what you’re thinking?

#210 Ronaldo on 03.30.20 at 10:53 pm

Dr. Ron Paul on the crisis. Have a listen.

https://goldsilvernews.blogspot.com/2020/03/ron-paul-it-wasnt-different-this-time.html

#211 Fast Eddie on 03.30.20 at 11:02 pm

DELETED

#212 45north on 03.30.20 at 11:11 pm

Third, real estate accounts for more of the Canadian economy than all manufacturing. And guess what Virus Porn has done there? Yup, killed it dead.

yep

Mike: Advanced Toronto RE sales:
* Freeholds: -42% yoy
* Condos: -47% yoy
https://twitter.com/areacode416/status/1244705088343552000?

following the link, Scott Ingram gives absolute numbers for 416 freeholds – from his chart, I’d say that in April, freeholds are going to be down 70% year-over-year. Or maybe 80%.

I’d say Toronto real estate has just lost half its value.

#213 Jimmy Da Bouche on 03.30.20 at 11:11 pm

It’s not a choice between fighting the virus and keeping your economy going. The choice is either you voluntarily shutdown your economy or you wait a few months and have the virus shut it down for you.

Are the economic consequences of a shutdown/lockdown/quarantine going to be devastating? Of course. But the economic consequences of letting the virus spread through your country are far worse.

Here’s how it works:

If you lockdown and do it properly (very strict lockdown measures & lots of testing), then the number of new cases will start to decline, then the deaths will start to decline, and eventually you can get the new cases down to zero. You isolate everyone who has the virus until you’re sure that they cannot spread it again. Then you cautiously open your economy up again while keeping your borders closed and keep on the lookout for new cases popping up.

The other option is to just let the virus burn through your country. It would probably infect at least 50% of your population, but probably much higher, like 80% or 90%. The hospitals get completely overwhelmed. The mortality rate increases. Keep in mind, there are basically two mortality rates. The first is the mortality rate when you have access to healthcare and a ventilator. The second mortality rate is where you don’t have access to those things.

Making the decision to let is spread guarantees that your hospitals get overrun. And they get overrun by a big factor. You might need 30 times the capacity to provide care for everyone who needs it.

We’ve seen estimates that it could be around 10% or 20% of cases are bad enough that they require hospitalization. While we call the remaining cases “mild”, it doesn’t really mean mild like most people would think. While it’s true that some people show truly mild symptoms (or none at all), there are many people who become extremely sick. People describe it as worse than any flu they ever experienced. But if they’re able to breath, they don’t go to the hospital, and they’re classified as one of the “mild” cases. But these people might be incredibly sick for weeks in their own home.

So how do you run an economy when your entire population gets sick? You go to work, you work for a week or two, then you get sick and have to take maybe a month to recover. There is no evidence that you gain immunity to the virus after you’ve been infected and recover. There is some evidence to suggest that the second time you get infected, it’s actually worse. So even if you survive the virus the first time, are you going to survive it a second time, or a third time, or a fourth time? How many times do you think you’re capable of getting this sick and recovering? If you keep getting sick over and over again, people are going to stop working and quarantine themselves. It’s not going to the the government enforcing the lockdown, it will be people who are afraid of going out and getting sick again.

If the virus can infect a significant portion of your population, your country might just be done. It may never recover. That’s really the risk you run by letting the virus spread to keep the economy going. How do you deal with a situation where almost your entire population is either sick, recovering from being sick, or in the incubation period from a new infection?

In my opinion, the only sane option is to shutdown your economy, lock everyone down, keep everyone fed, keep the lights on and the water flowing, defeat the virus, then we can all move on with our lives.

#214 Figure it Out on 03.30.20 at 11:14 pm

“My ‘position’ is we’d better be damn sure about the pay-off for shutting down the economy. “

I think this is the nub of it, right here. We’ll never know what the counterfactual would have been. Decisions are being made with incomplete and incorrect data, and they must be made NOW, because waiting a week or two for a clearer picture is inadvisable when up against a foe growing by 20-40% per day.

Would the global financial crisis have been blunted if Lehman had been bailed out? Would letting AIG fail really have affected the man in the street for long, or perhaps even improved his lot? COVID-19 poses bigger and more unknowable questions.

The best that we can hope for is that our political leaders are taking counsel from the most qualified public health experts, and are making good faith decisions based on it.

Much of Canada’s enterprise value, as it were, is in natural resources, infrastructure and capital equipment. The rest is in human capital — our citizens’ skills. When this is over, we’ll still have the oil, the forests, the airplanes, ships and railroads. Our people will still know how to build bridges, houses, and satellites, make television shows, video games, and beer. We may lose a crop in the field, and the ownership of much of our capital stock may change hands as the overleveraged are temporarily unable to service their debts. But that’s all paper. They say that, during recessions, assets go back to their rightful owners.

Sic transit gloria mundi.

#215 Barb on 03.30.20 at 11:39 pm

Now the BCDC has mandated a burn ban (prunings, windfall branches) “in populated airsheds”.

Populated airsheds.
Jeezzuzz!

So, yes, let’s leave those huge piles of orchard prunings on acreages and provide nice little dens for mice and rats.

Heel click.
Fade to black.

https://www.castanet.net/news/Vernon/295832/City-of-Vernon-cancels-burn-permits

#216 Ronaldo on 03.30.20 at 11:40 pm

#190 J

I don’t see all of South Korea essentially shut down. Nor Singapore. Nor China. The virus is not rampant in those countries. What steps have they taken that Canada has not?
————————————————————

This should answer your question.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=gAk7aX5hksU

#217 Ronaldo on 03.30.20 at 11:54 pm

#186 AR on 03.30.20 at 9:18 pm
https://amp-theatlantic-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/608719/

Millions could die in the US. Trump botched the initial response badly. Best case a few hundred thousand die. It is more contagious and has a higher mortality rate than the flu. And sadly it’s not going away anytime soon.
————————————————————-
37, 815 deaths worldwide to date. This is about how many people die of the regular flu each year in the U.S. We’re at day 105 since this virus was first announced to the world. That would mean that in the USA about 11,000 have already died of the regular flu. 3000 have died in the USA of the Corona virus of which 1200 or so are in NY State.

This will all be over by summer. Relax.

#218 AisA on 03.30.20 at 11:58 pm

This whole thing is asinine. Drove past the windowed emergency of my local hospital, empty. The propaganda has even the hypochondriacs hiding under a pillow.

#219 BIG LEAFS FAN on 03.31.20 at 12:00 am

#84 .
You are dead right. T2 will be looking to tax the capital gains/or part thereof on sale of your residence in due course. They thought of this before but it was not palatable. Now they will be able to use the “we need every Canadian to pitch in” mantra to sell us on it.
Coming to a tax return near you very soon!

#220 Ronaldo on 03.31.20 at 12:18 am

Another common sense person who says it like it is. Worth the listen.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238721

#221 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.31.20 at 12:23 am

#345 Sail away on 03.30.20 at 12:15 pm
#333 Steve on 03.30.20 at 11:24 am

This morning we see the frightening and sad report that 32 of 65 residents in long term care in Bobcaygeon have been infected, and 9 of 32 have died.

—————

To be balanced here: nobody enrolls elders in nursing homes expecting them to walk out again.

A little acceleration happened. There’s no easy way to die. Very likely a relief in many cases.

Along with a few others on this blog, I’d much prefer to be set adrift on an ice floe when the time comes.
————-
Agree.
Plenty of crocodile tears shed by the beneficiaries of the estate.

#222 Janice Ricardo on 03.31.20 at 12:38 am

BANNED

#223 Drunken Stupor on 03.31.20 at 12:41 am

Couple alternative takes on Covid19

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-and-the-fable-of-the-bees/

#224 Figure it Out on 03.31.20 at 12:51 am

Somebody said that MAYBE “The financial sector (who has an enormous vested interest in the status quo, as myopic as it might be) is correct, and this whole thing is overblown.”

I don’t see the financial sector as having a monolithic view on this. E.g.
https://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2020/03/watch-what-chinese-do.html
https://morningporridge.com/the-morning-porridge

I’m too busy to watch droning video — only the written word has high enough bandwidth for me — so I’m not really following whatever Bass and Ackman are saying on the tube.

But financial industry opinion certainly isn’t monolithic.

#225 Spock on 03.31.20 at 1:01 am

I am around but things are definitely not logical right now.

Live alone and prosper __/\__
—————–

#156 sonnydaze on 03.30.20 at 8:00 pm
I miss Spock.

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one.

One should strive to neutralize cognitive bias.

https://www.pensford.com/why-flattening-the-curve-is-overrated/

#226 april on 03.31.20 at 1:03 am

Jim Quinn, Mar 30, Howestreet.com P For Pandemic {populist Rage] A very changed and frightening world is shaping up in his view.

#227 crazyfox on 03.31.20 at 1:39 am

I’m not sure how we can talk about economics without talking about the science and best government tactics behind this virus. They are both intertwined now. What’s the price of oil going to do based on supply/demand? Predict what this virus will do based on science and world government response, and you’ll find your answer. When will we get back to work? Science and government response will dictate some idea of when. Ask any economic question under the sun and the answer will be the same until this virus is managed. Good luck saying we can talk about economics while ignoring science & government response or vice versa, they’re intertwined.

What, are some here too cunningly stunted to listen to science and understand why governments have done what they are (or aren’t) doing? It seems as though some of us are. Look at China, back to work. Look at South Korea, most of their economy never shut down. Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, same thing. Travel restrictions, isolated quarantines, self quarantines, Whats app cel GPS tech, temp scans, respirators, hardcore testing, can’t stress it enough, test, test, test and trace the chains of infection, its no secret what they have done successfully. It’s called science and government response. Germany gets it, ramping up testing to 150,000 a week on top and their numbers are dropping. Their nation never went into full lock down and likely won’t now:

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/germany-looks-tracking-patients-suppress-092115227.html

Look at what we’ve done or haven’t and the reasons why, its no secret there either. Our testing here was abysmal in North America leaving governments to make 9 figure decisions flying blind with no followups of chains of infection. Asia was prepared for this, while the western world was not, its that simple. SARS and MERS prepared nations like China and South Korea for the correct response, while America snoozed and cut funding in critical areas of prep & intel coupled with supply side disruptions and now its costing us dearly, leaving a small but growing herd of financial planners more salty and sour with each timeless minute.

China and other nations have already demonstrated COVID-19 can be contained through science and good government response. I have no empathy for anyone’s thinking that there’s an economic fix without this. We’ve seen what poor government response has done, it’s called exponential growth. The video below is all about, yup, science and government response. What, do I still have to insult to provoke readers to watch the video below? Would it help, (likely, yes) what more can I do:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU&t=155s

#228 jane24 on 03.31.20 at 2:24 am

With reference to Alberta, all this covid business has done is speed up the inevitable. With the oil and gas market disappearing in the medium term due to the challenges and new legislation world wide about emissions, the question is what can Alberta make money from to exist?

As examples in 9 years time in the UK it will be illegal to buy an oil or diesel fuelled new car and in a couple of years illegal to buy a new house with an oil or natural gas fuelled furnace.

They have the dirtiest and most land locked oil in the world, there is no future for it at any price. I have read commentary that Alberta will move into high tech. Don’t make me laugh, too much competition there and too much investment needed to get Alberta off the ground. Indian techies cost $4000 a year, how can Alberta beat that.

Alberta’s climate is terrible, I believe it is still snowing there as I type. What is the point of Alberta now and yet this is the engine of the Canadian economy, oil always has been. Discuss.

#229 Howard on 03.31.20 at 4:13 am

#111 Mattl on 03.30.20 at 6:40 pm

Yet again you are conflating owning vs renting with income tax brackets. You do know those are two entirely different concepts and issues?

There is no moral or ethical reason that those who eschewed home ownership (whether by preference or necessity) should have to bail out those who bought.

#230 Howard on 03.31.20 at 4:26 am

#144 YouKnowWho on 03.30.20 at 7:38 pm

If he gets re-elected, he’ll have majority.
If he doesn’t get re-elected he’ll leave a steaming pile of crap for the Cons next time around.

———————————-

Excellent point. The strategy of the Ontario Liberals writ large. Except the mess McGuinty/Wynne left behind is mere spilled milk compared to the elephantine disaster awaiting any future Conservative federal government to clean up.

That’s what happens when Ontario women force a government on the country because they like the leader’s hairdo.

#231 Joe Quinn Phoenix on 03.31.20 at 4:38 am

#207 – Attrition

My thoughts exactly. Gracious folks in the States. Be careful what you say, Canadiots.

Meanwhile, why are soooo many people freaking about their portfolio? My b&d is only down 10.7% as of today.

#232 MF on 03.31.20 at 6:35 am

227 crazyfox on 03.31.20

“China and other nations have already demonstrated COVID-19 can be contained through science and good government response”

-Am I reading this correctly?

The chinese response was good?

Unbelievable.

The soviet response to Chernobyl was good too. Only 3000 Roentgen and everything was under control.

MF

#233 Shakley Tipton III on 03.31.20 at 6:59 am

BANNED

#234 JJ on 03.31.20 at 7:37 am

Interesting to note that not one Cdn politician (PM, MP, MPP, local councillors, etc. etc.) has offered to give up their salaries or pensions during the corona-19 pandemic. Service Canada is a disaster – impossible to get through on the phone lines. Present some stats on how many people/businesses have actually received funds.
Thank You

#235 Dharma Bum on 03.31.20 at 7:43 am

#72 Blue Angel

Beer is too expensive in Canada!
——————————————————————–

Now is the time for Buck-a-beer!

C’mon Doug, step up and do SOMETHING USEFUL!!!

#236 Dharma Bum on 03.31.20 at 7:45 am

Binged Ozark last couple of nights.

Season 3 sucks.

#237 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 8:16 am

Hmmm
So much for China’s bragging.
Zero symptoms makes for a tough hunt to eradicate the virus

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/china-zeroes-in-on-coronavirus-patients-with-no-symptoms-as-new-infections-rise-idUSKBN21I036

#238 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 8:27 am

@@228 jane24
“Alberta’s climate is terrible, I believe it is still snowing there as I type.”
++++

Not to worry. Your sister is quite happy in Edmonton…but her basement suite is still available if the pox gets too bad in Jolly old Blighty.
Just remember, She’s 7 time zones away. No phoning in the middle of the night to announce your pending arrival..

As for the dusting of snow in Alberta….pfft.
It snows in June there. They’re used to it.
The farmers need it for their future crops.

How about the 2 FEET of snow they are getting in the US midwest today.
Or the snow in Scotland? Spain? Italy?
Terribly hideous places to live I’m sure.

https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/worldwide_accumulation

#239 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 8:30 am

@#236 Dharma
“Season 3 sucks.”

++++

Thanks for the warning.
I liked season 1, never made it even halfway through season 2, wont bother with 3.

#240 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 8:41 am

Just when you thought Trump was the worst leader in the world…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro/brazils-bolsonaro-urges-no-more-coronavirus-quarantine-says-jobs-being-lost-idUSKBN21H3I3

Brazil
100 million people with a vast amount living in slums with no running water to “wash your hands”…
The explosion in virus deaths in South America?
Blame it on Rio

#241 IHCTD9 on 03.31.20 at 8:44 am

Did some grocery shopping for our household and for my parents yesterday, that was an interesting experience. Too wet to work outside, looks like the same for today.

I’m glad Ms. IH works in the public sector as that will probably be the only sector left standing if our leadership keeps things shut down much longer.

My already minimal income tax remittances stopped as of last Friday. My benefit application goes in next week.

#242 Jager on 03.31.20 at 9:07 am

The hysteria that drives global warming is now driving Wuflu madness. Same perps same desired outcome.

Fear invalidates rationale.

Pandemic becomes plandemic. Never let a good crisis go to waste…

Yes. Do wear a mask (if possible). Wash your hands frequently and by all means carry on.

#243 JB on 03.31.20 at 9:38 am

#207 Attrition on 03.30.20 at 10:40 pm

God bless America! True friends are there in a crisis!
Here here!
It never fails to unsettle me when I see how many Canadians take every benefit Americans graciously bestow upon us, and return only scorn, disdain, smugness and self righteousness.
Americans treat us like kin.
We treat them like garbage.
Remember those first flights outta Japan when Covid hit? Weeks until a Canadian chartered plane could arrive.
“No problem,” said the Americans, “we got room on ours.”
I think they took like 60 Canadians home on one flight.
When this happened, I wondered why none of the Canadians–surely, the vast majority anti-Trumpers, better than Americans, etc.–didn’t stand on principle and refuse the offer and remain on that cruise ship off Yokohama. I’d love to see their Twitter feeds. How many anti-American sentiments expressed over the months prior.
Most of the world’s peoples know how to graciously accept a kindness or preferential treatment. Not canuckle-heads tho.
To any Americans reading: rest assured many, many Canadians appreciate your benevolence towards and tolerance of us, the little pinko flea on your shoulder.
…………………………………………………………………
My American Aunt, Uncle and five cousins would call that general attitude of any Canadians towards Americans sure as hell as crock of donkey dung. They have seen it both ways and take it all with a grain of salt. They also know as well with Americans calling Canadians a bunch of backwoods lumberjacks. Americans in general don’t ever travel north to visit Canada and do not ever learn anything about Canada in school. So they are at a severe disadvantage when it comes to any real knowledge about us. Anyway I really think we Canadians know how to help our friends when the chips are down and the $hit hits the fan. Has it been so long that you don’t recall when Canada and other NATO members invoke Article 5 of the 1949 Washington Treaty for the first time? The article from NATO’s founding document states that an attack on the United States is an attack on all members: Canada was there to help instantly. I think we sort of helped at least 6,595 Americans for several days. So does that count at all?

https://www.cpac.ca/en/cpac-in-focus/timeline-9-11-and-canada/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2019/09/11/the-day-canadians-opened-their-homes-to-americans/#70a5e5a37156

#244 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 9:42 am

@#223 Drunken Stupor before 9am

https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-and-the-fable-of-the-bees/

Sooooo.
The short version is…. let everyone go back to work, let everyone get the virus, let the corona virus kill whoever, save the economy save jobs, save the working poor.

I’m in.

#245 IHCTD9 on 03.31.20 at 9:48 am

It’s looking pretty certain that Trudeau is going to blow no less than 150 Billion worth of borrowed funds just for 2020. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s closer to 200 Billion they way the Libs are going.

At the same time, their revenues are are going to crater huge. Oil exports dead, economy trashed, consumer spending gone, RE toast.

Man-O-Man, are we headed for trouble here. Trying to tax us just won’t work, half the country was broke and in hock even before CV-19, now half the rest of us are out of work. It looks like 1/4-1/3 of the entire private work force is applying for benefits.

The Libs spending might be creating a problem we just won’t be able to climb out of.

#246 mark on 03.31.20 at 10:01 am

Canada 0, Chinese flue 1.

#247 Bingo on 03.31.20 at 10:17 am

@#213

Jimmy, you get it. Strange how so many deplorables who claim to be smart, don’t.

#248 crazyfox on 03.31.20 at 10:20 am

#232 MF on 03.31.20 at 6:35 am

You read that right. Early on, local government response in Wuhan and the province of Hubei was poor but once the centralized government of China stepped in and quarantined the city and province of Hubei, the response was more than sufficient. When there is wide spread community transmission, there isn’t much choice really and the interesting thing watching the reported numbers of cases is that they had community transmission in at least 5 other provinces with a thousand or more cases (like us). I thought, like others I’m sure, that they were screwed but they turned it around, lets explain.

China had several notable advantages concerning COVID-19, the first being experience (SARS, MERS, H1N1, H7N9) and the second being timing. The timeline between Jan 23rd and Feb 10th fell on our equivalent of NY holidays meaning self isolation was much more achievable, buying government time to roll out needed changes. By the end of their lunar holiday on Feb 10th when a trickle began to open businesses up again, temp guns were used everywhere (retailers, banks, mass transit, factories etc.) in conjunction with a cel phone GPS government sponsored app that tracks infected people with COVID-19, all compulsory. The video below is from an American with Chinese connections explaining how it works below. Skip through it, you’ll see how it works:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6c9gbttVew

South Korea uses the same app along with Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and lately, Israel. Germany will likely use it and if they do, the rest of Europe will follow suit. North America needs to at minimum look at a volunteer version of this same GPS tracking app in conjunction with temp scans until the numbers no longer warrant their use.

Again, China has had several advantages in this pandemic. They manufacture everything they need so they can prioritize, there are no supply chain disruptions for them. If their people need respirators for example, they’ve got them. Their monetary system is cashless AND cardless meaning its a touchless, no contact system they use through using cel phones to pay for everything reducing the chance of viral spread (btw, COVID-19 isn’t the only thing floating around out there).

China’s cel phone market share is at 64.5% of every Chinese citizen. Canada is around 40% by comparison, basically where China was in Jan 2016. If Canada was smart, we should use this opportunity to scrap the card system we have and use cel phones to pay for everything, phasing it in through regs over 3 year. This will not be the world’s last pandemic.

Lets face it, with their current manufacturing capacity, the rollout of their cel tech, GPS tracking apps, temp scans, respirators, in home quarantines, self quarantines for the greater good, everything China has done has led a superior reaction to North America but like I say, they have advantages that were already baked in along with experience! They knew what to do “before” it happened.

There is no shame in admitting North America is behind the curve here, but there is shame in not catching up when we’ve got the opportunities to do so and didn’t take it. Canadians need to be humble and learn from the best models of success, tweak them if need be to suit our own society and culture but above all model ourselves after success.

Did I say 9 figure decisions are made flying blind, missed the proof, apologies for that, it’s 12 figures and 13 figures in the U.S. . To shut down the majority of Canada’s economy sure to add 10% debt to GDP without these other measures successful Asian nations have used with the time we’ve had to implement at least some of it, floors me. We need adequate testing above all so we can contact trace with or without a shutdown (we rely on U.S. tech for test kits and its been a fail, it speaks volumes to our own shortcomings). Until North America has adequate testing, we are flying blind making 12 figure decisions in darkness because we don’t have an idea on how widespread community transmission is in BC, Alta and Ont in particular. Btw, I hate this, coming up short on something so critical but I’m not certain Canada had a better alternative.

The economic cost to this is insane and I can’t fully criticize the federal response (yet) because I don’t know what their choices were and are given their circumstances. I doubt that a change in government would have made a difference, we are too reliant on the U.S. for their tech and manufacturing capacity and they are coming up well short themselves unfortunately. We are competing with Europe for the same things, so we have to think outside the box.

Temp scans where people gather (grocery stores, essential retail, ports of entry, gathering travel info at ports of entry, streamline it with cel apps) and a voluntary GPS tracking cel app infected are low hanging fruit, our feds have to move on this like, 6 weeks ago? Otherwise, the hard part is testing, tracing and PPE which will come… but the cheap and easy low hanging fruit is the temp scans and a GPS tracking app of infected. If Canada wants a return to normalcy (whatever that is), we have to look at what is cheap and easy and message it right to make it work.

Otherwise MF, if this explanation isn’t sufficient, the links I provided on this thread will be. Don’t dismiss the video on my #227 because its subtitled, there is important info there that everyone should know.

#249 Rebs on 03.31.20 at 10:20 am

Agreed: hysteria is not good and we will NOT all die from this.

But it is wrong and dangerous to continue to compare this with the seasonal flu. There are many scientific reasons why it is different and this should be acknowledged.

#250 BillyBob on 03.31.20 at 10:23 am

#228 jane24 on 03.31.20 at 2:24 am
With reference to Alberta, all this covid business has done is speed up the inevitable. With the oil and gas market disappearing in the medium term due to the challenges and new legislation world wide about emissions, the question is what can Alberta make money from to exist?

As examples in 9 years time in the UK it will be illegal to buy an oil or diesel fuelled new car and in a couple of years illegal to buy a new house with an oil or natural gas fuelled furnace.

They have the dirtiest and most land locked oil in the world, there is no future for it at any price. I have read commentary that Alberta will move into high tech. Don’t make me laugh, too much competition there and too much investment needed to get Alberta off the ground. Indian techies cost $4000 a year, how can Alberta beat that.

Alberta’s climate is terrible, I believe it is still snowing there as I type. What is the point of Alberta now and yet this is the engine of the Canadian economy, oil always has been. Discuss.

==================================================

As someone residing in the UK out of convenience, I find it hilarious to see a Brit putting down Alberta. Alberta is a paradise compared with the UK. Albertans at least aren’t afraid to work.

Observations from my own experiment in Not-So-Great-Britain:

The UK is a shitty little island crammed with 60 million people with horrifically overloaded and crumbling road and rail infrastructure. Public transport is expensive, unreliable, and filthy. Internet is slow and expensive. Banks are terrible. Utilities from gas to electricity to water – all expensive. Wages are low. Taxes are high. Housing is beyond overpriced and tiny, ancient, and inefficient. I’ve yet to meet a single Brit who after learning I’m Canadian doesn’t speak longingly about the spaciousness of Canada and Canadian housing. They love to put down American vehicles and lifestyle, as they lurch around the narrow goat tracks considered streets, pulling over to let the other tiny cars pass, to get home to their million-pound closets.

Don’t even get me started on Brexit. Talk about shooting oneself in the face. NI unhappy so Republic of Ireland making gains in unification movement. That should end about as well as the last time. Scotland wants to leave, today. Even Wales is more nationalistic than ever. The monarchy, like the entire country, is crumbling. Last gasps of a dead empire. “Little England”, indeed. It’s coming.

Frankly I’m at a loss as to how such a backwards place has such a deluded high opinion of itself. It’s shocking. Pleasant people individually, but collectively arrogant to the point of being ridiculous. Witness someone in the UNITED KINGDOM putting down another’s “climate”! LOL People on telly blathering on about how they’ll beat the virus with their famous “stiff upper lip”. Like a virus cares about ones resolve. American individualism, meet Monty Python.

I’m with The Jaguar. Alberta is down now but they’ll adapt and survive. There is definitely a more developed sense of self-reliance there than in most of the rest of the country. Could be something to do with making a massive net fiscal contribution to the confederation for so many years and having it taken completely for granted, I don’t know. And as far as fossil fuels, they have a long way to run yet, don’t kid yourself. The current demand shock and artificial supply manipulation won’t last forever.

Can’t wait to see what the UK thinks they’ll replace gas and diesel-powered cars with, within 9 years. It isn’t remotely feasible to power the equivalent in electric vehicles with wind or solar, no matter what any law says you can’t argue with science. And the aforementioned infrastructure is so bad it couldn’t possibly begin to support the electrical loads anyway. Discuss?

#251 Sail Away on 03.31.20 at 10:35 am

#231 Joe Quinn Phoenix on 03.31.20 at 4:38 am

…why are soooo many people freaking about their portfolio? My b&d is only down 10.7% as of today.

—————–

I would think some people are freaking out about their portfolio because they are looking at their own portfolio and not at yours, and, further, because their own portfolio is the one of concern to them. Just my thought.

#252 TurnerNation on 03.31.20 at 10:35 am

#186 AR if it really is more contagious than flu can you explain to us why, for the past 6 months, untold numbers of Flight Attendants and Rideshare drivers (Uber, Lyft) globally are and have been in very close contact and quarters with untold numbers of people all over the world.
I’d expect tens of thousands, no hundreds of thousands of them to be hit. Just decimated in numbers.

It all comes back to What are they telling us/what are they not telling us. If you’ve found a font of truth then do tell. For now I use my head

#253 Mattl on 03.31.20 at 10:45 am

When the infection rate was far less than one-tenth of one per cent in China, why will it be 60% here? Curious. – Garth

—————————————————————-

For one, the Chinese had to literally weld condo building doors and station armed guards outside to contain the spread.

We are doing nothing of the like. In BC retail and takeout is still open. Contractors are working. People are having house parties in condo’s. The beaches in Florida were packed over spring break, and mega churches had services with up to 1K people this past Sunday.

The Chinese experience is instructive, and they felt that dramatic measures were required to slow/stop the spread.

Will be interesting to see if they were right. The example of the choir group, where 75% of the members that attended one practice were infected and three have died leads me to believe that shutdown is the best long term play. And I say this as someone significantly impacted, and who will be expected to pay for the recovery.

#254 Abc123 on 03.31.20 at 10:46 am

#103 MF on 03.30.20 at 6:29 pm
52 Abc123 on 03.30.20 at

Not likely.

—————

Been hearing for years and years why the GTA RE market would fall . Always a reason , never good enough to topple the juggernaut that it is.

I’m glad you said not likely

Real estate is slow to rise and slow to fall. Massive unemployment is its weakness, because of the leverage. And in the gta, its ALL leverage.

And lol at anyone who think life will just go on after this.

MF
——-

Been hearing for years various reasons why the GTA housing market was on the precipice of a decline and to no avail.

What is unlikely is it’s demise . Torontonions , after being brutalized by financial markets , once again, wil entrench ever further into bricks and mortar. It’s in their very DNA

#255 oh bouy on 03.31.20 at 10:46 am

the in-fighting amongst you folk on here is hilarious and sad. hope none of you live in my neighbourhood.

#256 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 11:01 am

#250 BillyBob on 03.31.20 at 10:23 am

Can’t wait to see what the UK thinks they’ll replace gas and diesel-powered cars with, within 9 years. It isn’t remotely feasible to power the equivalent in electric vehicles with wind or solar, no matter what any law says you can’t argue with science.

—————–

Transitioning to electric cars won’t reduce hydrocarbon use, since fully 60% of the UK’s power generation is from coal and fossil fuels, with another 20% from nuclear and the remainder filled in with hydro and renewables (source: Wikipedia).

Using electrical reduces power efficiency; first loss of efficiency burning hydrocarbons to create electricity, then loss of efficiency from battery to car. Much, much more power will be needed. The situation is not as stark in areas with abundant hydropower such as Canada (yay, Canada!).

Who remembers when corn ethanol was being touted as the energy source of the future? Then, as happens with most intellectually dishonest arguments, it turned out the actual hydrocarbon cost was higher than gas.

#257 the Jaguar on 03.31.20 at 11:06 am

@ Billybob ” I’m with The Jaguar. Alberta is down now but they’ll adapt and survive. ”

We are honoured, sir.

#258 Tudval on 03.31.20 at 11:06 am

I wouldn’t be too worried about a one time increase in debt by $100 billion. That’s like a 15% increase, very manageable unless it becomes chronic. I look at it as a competition between countries. As long as we do better than most (which we are) we may actually gain in the end. And most horrifying, home prices may very well go up some more, except perhaps, the >million dollar condos.

#259 Mattl on 03.31.20 at 11:12 am

#229 Howard on 03.31.20 at 4:13 am
#111 Mattl on 03.30.20 at 6:40 pm

There is no moral or ethical reason that those who eschewed home ownership (whether by preference or necessity) should have to bail out those who bought.

————————————————————-

Again, there are no government bailouts for homeowners. If there are please provide a link so I can take advantage.

FWIW I have owned property for 15 years and the only government sponsored program specifically targeting homeowners I have taken advantage of is the RRSP withdrawal.

So wake me up when “those who eschewed home ownership” are providing homeowners with any level of funding and /or bail out and where I can access the funds. This program sounds awesome, will apply today.

FWIW I don’t support RE bail outs, at all. I also think the EI top up is ridiculous – the program is generous enough. And schemes like the free $500 to renters in BC is a joke. And while I’m on it, the CCB should not be means tested – why is my child worth less then my neighbors?

I submitted my taxes to my accountant yesterday and I can assure you that no one is bailing my family out, quite the opposite, we are supporting multiple families.

#260 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 11:14 am

#253 Mattl on 03.31.20 at 10:45 am

For one, the Chinese had to literally weld condo building doors and station armed guards outside to contain the spread.

The example of the choir group, where 75% of the members that attended one practice were infected and three have died leads me to believe that shutdown is the best long term play.

—————–

What, Chinese buildings don’t have windows? That report is just sensational and almost certainly false.

Also, the choir (source LA Times):

Symptoms appeared 3 weeks (!) after the choir. Isn’t Covid incubation 14 days?

3 hospitalized, 2 died.

28 actually tested positive, but it was reported 45 were infected. Average age of choir members: 67.

Don’t join the media in overdramatizing for effect.

#261 MF on 03.31.20 at 11:17 am

54 Abc123 on 03.31.20 at

When have we had 30% unemployment?

The entire system is based on students, temporary workers, and international students being “housed” in rooms of dedicated rental properties. Majority of condos are rented out to international “investors”. I know my condo is.

How many students and international workers are coming in now? For the foreseeable future? What is the unemployment situation like? What will future taxes on real estate be? What is credit risk?

MF

#262 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 11:23 am

#231 Joe Quinn Phoenix on 03.31.20 at 4:38 am

…why are soooo many people freaking about their portfolio? My b&d is only down 10.7% as of today.

————

There was an accident on the highway yesterday.

I don’t know why those involved were so worried about their damaged car, lacerations and broken bones.

I was just fine.

#263 not 1st on 03.31.20 at 11:35 am

#228 jane24 on 03.31.20 at 2:24 am

Do you honestly think oil is going to stay low forever and the solar panels will be flying up after this one? We are never going to risk the security of our supply chains again. All that climate BS is heading to the dustbin.

And you don’t know much about lifecycle costs in the patch do you?

#264 Mitch on 03.31.20 at 11:43 am

For those who can get over the fact that this comes from RT, here is an article by Peter Andrews, Irish science journalist and writer, based in London.

It predicts how the statistics and numbers will be massaged by the mainstream media and governments to justify the likely fearmongering when this is all over:

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/484548-coronavirus–people-die-outcome/

#265 Hawk on 03.31.20 at 11:47 am

#210 Ronaldo on 03.30.20 at 10:53 pm

Even greater than Ron Paul, listen to this:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/massie-calls-for-congress-to-hold-virtual-public-hearings-on-coronavirus

#266 DFO on 03.31.20 at 11:49 am

Oil craters. Alberta says ‘Hey oil companies, here’s 1 bill on us’.

Is it OBVIOUS yet the oil companies are SOAKING tax payers to avoid taking losses?

Oil is over, byebye, the saudis went full scorched earth on the market and there’ll never be a barrel of oil worth enough money to pipeline anywhere.

If your argument ‘Well we’ll still need oil for x y z’ yes, I agree, we will, but the market is flooded with all stockpiles completely full.

Let me spell it out. I T ‘ S O V E R F O R O I L

#267 Bobs yer Uncle on 03.31.20 at 12:00 pm

BANNED (again. Just go away, you loser.)

#268 Abc123 on 03.31.20 at 12:00 pm

261 MF on 03.31.20 at 11:17 am
54 Abc123 on 03.31.20 at

When have we had 30% unemployment?

The entire system is based on students, temporary workers, and international students being “housed” in rooms of dedicated rental properties. Majority of condos are rented out to international “investors”. I know my condo is.

How many students and international workers are coming in now? For the foreseeable future? What is the unemployment situation like? What will future taxes on real estate be? What is credit risk?

MF
————-

All of your anecdotal points whether true or imagined would actually be of a concern if we were looking at any other place on planet earth other than Toronto.

Toronto really is different. I expect to be attacked for this comment but when you look at the nine lives times nine this real estate market has had, coupled with the very indoctrination of RE into the deep psyche of every torontonion, not to mention the overwhelming capital availability from alternative and private mortgage lenders, it has shown clearly to be unstoppable .

I stand by my prediction. No significant decline in prices even with a decline in sales volume. Once this virus passes , and stock markets start to give some of the losses back, RE will roar to new price heights .

The obsession will continue

#269 not 1st on 03.31.20 at 12:09 pm

“Only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus,” said the scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health last week.

https://www.ft.com/content/f3796baf-e4f0-4862-8887-d09c7f706553

#270 oh bouy on 03.31.20 at 12:10 pm

@#266 DFO on 03.31.20 at 11:49 am
Oil craters. Alberta says ‘Hey oil companies, here’s 1 bill on us’.

Is it OBVIOUS yet the oil companies are SOAKING tax payers to avoid taking losses?

Oil is over, byebye, the saudis went full scorched earth on the market and there’ll never be a barrel of oil worth enough money to pipeline anywhere.

If your argument ‘Well we’ll still need oil for x y z’ yes, I agree, we will, but the market is flooded with all stockpiles completely full.

Let me spell it out. I T ‘ S O V E R F O R O I L
________________________________

so true.
oil sands will probably never be a financially viable option ever again. same goes for fracking in america.
simply no money to made

#271 Howard on 03.31.20 at 12:11 pm

#259 Mattl on 03.31.20 at 11:12 am

Again, there are no government bailouts for homeowners. If there are please provide a link so I can take advantage.

——————————–

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/finance-and-investing/mortgage-loan-insurance/the-resource/covid19-understanding-mortgage-payment-deferral

Is CMHC helping with mortgage deferrals?

Yes, with the COVID-19 outbreak, we are allowing lenders to offer deferred payments for insured mortgages.

Deferred mortgage payments actually increase the debt load of homeowners. Don’t fall for that. – Garth

#272 Abc123 on 03.31.20 at 12:12 pm

MF respectfully,

I think you , as well as many others here ,greatly under estimate the cult like religion revolving around RE in Toronto . Sentiment and beliefs matters , more than fundamental analysis and data points , for average folks and above all else, average folks in T.O think houses are great , safe investments that always go up.

And there are a plethora of “ Harold the jewellery buyer” type of private lenders willing to feed the leveraging of RE regardless of what banks decide to do . People will pay the increased rates , even if it means forgoing all else ,including food and essentials , to own . The RE bears under estimate the obsession year after year .

The behaviour in financial markets recently and repeatedly over past couple of decades will only reinforce this belief structure

#273 Attrition on 03.31.20 at 12:14 pm

France eyes ‘shadow army’ of fruit pickers as coronavirus bites

PARIS (Reuters) – France appealed on Tuesday to workers laid off by the coronavirus crisis to help farmers pick fruit and vegetables that will otherwise be left to rot in the fields due to a shortage of seasonal workers.

And it is not just a European problem: the US has limited seasonal farmworker visas from Mexico and its farmers face similar problems, while China, where the outbreak began, is also grappling with labour shortages after restricting internal travel.

“Every first world economy is used to workers coming from other economies to pick their fruit and veg,” said Ali Capper, who chairs the horticulture board for the UK’s National Farmers’ Union. “What you’re talking about is a major societal shift.”

Let that sink in: What you’re talking about it a major societal shift.

Sobering words for some, music to the ears of any parents dealing with lazy, entitled, screen-addicted, selfie-sharing, vacuous, uneducated, couch-lounging teenages.

To the fields, you lazy pukes!

#274 Figure it Out on 03.31.20 at 12:23 pm

“Transitioning to electric cars won’t reduce hydrocarbon use, since fully 60% of the UK’s …”

Seems out of date:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/14/renewable-electricity-overtakes-fossil-fuels-in-uk-for-first-time

The people building renewable power, and even those converting thermal plants from coal to NG, are not waiting for the eternal internet debates to sort themselves out.

#275 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 12:27 pm

#273 Attrition on 03.31.20 at 12:14 pm

Re: crop harvesting

My footloose daughter is picking apples in New Zealand until end of May or so. Essential worker, good pay, and under full lockdown. Making bank, baby!

#276 MF on 03.31.20 at 12:38 pm

72 Abc123 on 03.31.20 at 12:12 pm

-History repeats. This is especially true with regards to anything financial. The reason is human emotion, which is always the same and predictable. Euphoria on the way up and despair on the way down.

Real estate was a cult before in Toronto, many times. Then it was not. Many of our parents (mine included) purchased during downturns where there was pain. It would be naive to believe that cannot happen again. The real estate market went up because of policy, it will go down in spite of that same policy.

MF

#277 MF on 03.31.20 at 12:45 pm

268 Abc123 on 03.31.20 at 12:00 pm

So you refute my comment by calling it a bunch of anecdotal points by listing your own anecdotal points?

This virus should have taught you how no one, and no market is “immune” to an economic disruption.

That’s the legacy of all this. Open your eyes.

MF

#278 Stone on 03.31.20 at 12:47 pm

#191 not 1st on 03.30.20 at 9:26 pm
#124 Stone on 03.30.20 at 7:10 pm
—-

Well I know how to get a 40% increase in our crude price and 13B in our pockets and endless pipelines to our door with the stroke of a pen.

Better wake up, there is no version of Canada coming out of this without our resource wealth (ie oil) leading it.

———

Seems to be quite the opposite thinking of the philosophy of a B&D portfolio. Since Canada figures so little as part of my overall diversification (oil & gas is almost non-existant), it’s irrelevant. My international component is almost completely unhedged as well so I have currency risk spread out too.

I don’t need to wake up. Zzz! Zzz! Zzz!

Also, time for Canada to diversify as well. Even more so, Alberta. Short term pain with lots of long term gain if they do.

Zzz! Zzz! Zzz!

#279 Brett in Calgary on 03.31.20 at 1:08 pm

This steerage section is hilarious. “Always will” and “never again”… full of absolutes. It’s our kids who will suffer our stupidity (all kinds, including the usual oil-gas bashing) with the bloated taxes we are signing them up for. I can’t imagine the old folks homes they will put us in.

#280 Abc123 on 03.31.20 at 1:08 pm

Well, I am not so naive to believe that a decline in RE prices can not happen again. In fact , we had one recently in and around 2017 with the ushering in of the stress test.
My belief is that it will be short lived and largely insignificant to the broader, bullish trend.

Fact remains that the enormous numbers of buyers waiting on the sidelines for the slightest decline caused them to pounce back then and will again. The hunger for bricks remains unabated and fully fueled by easy access to credit, mortgage insurance etc. By the way, do you pay the same interest for a leverage loan for financial assets as you a mortgage for RE? . I Didn’t think so . Patently unfair for sure , but it is what it is .

All you have to do is read the comments section here to see the numbers of people waiting for the fabled decline in prices so they can “ vulch” . After all , everyone here is a contrarion and experienced buyer of distressed assets lol

Anyhow , I believe we should all follow the money, and also the policy you speak of . Both clearly signaling further price appreciation.

#281 Abc123 on 03.31.20 at 1:12 pm

MF

Previous comment was directed at MF at 276.

#282 Tom from Mississauga on 03.31.20 at 1:13 pm

The contagiousness of this virus and other contemporary ones aren’t comparable. The rest of the world aren’t and can’t do what China did to suppress it.

#283 Howard on 03.31.20 at 1:18 pm

#271 Howard on 03.31.20 at 12:11 pm
#259 Mattl on 03.31.20 at 11:12 am

Again, there are no government bailouts for homeowners. If there are please provide a link so I can take advantage.

——————————–

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/finance-and-investing/mortgage-loan-insurance/the-resource/covid19-understanding-mortgage-payment-deferral

Is CMHC helping with mortgage deferrals?

Yes, with the COVID-19 outbreak, we are allowing lenders to offer deferred payments for insured mortgages.

Deferred mortgage payments actually increase the debt load of homeowners. Don’t fall for that. – Garth

———————————

I’m aware of that. But at current interest rates the increased debt accrued over 6 months is miniscule. And this deferral gives homeowners (and landlords, some banks extending it to them) the gift of extra cash flow for 6 months to buy discounted stocks that pay higher dividends than the mortgage, so they can actually make money on the whole scheme.

The 6-month deferral also comes without any hit to the borrowers credit score (who mandated that? who regulates credit score variables?).

#284 calgary rip off on 03.31.20 at 1:24 pm

Thank you for the post.

What’s unclear about the virus is the statistics. Why do some people get very sick and others dont? Blood type? Inherent immunity? As a novel virus the data just isnt there. Conventional medicine requires protocols and algorithms. These protocols are unclear. What is clear is how to intubate and assist with oxygen supply if a patient’s saturations are dropping. What seems to be missing largely in North America is an acceptance to try measures that will do harm and will likely help.

Richard Cheng MD PhD Shanghai has clear protocols on how to treat Covid 19 patients. This includes a combination of tradional western medicine + TCM + IV vitamin C. It is argued that 1)Vitamin C has no evidence and 2) it is too inexpensive. The reality is that many doctors are uncomfortable to utilize protocols without clear evidence. This is very very stupid. How exactly are alveoli to recover if the patient has not enough immunity or correct immune response? And this is why so many are panicking despite the low percentage statistics of death. Health care providers dont know what the hell they are doing. Instead of obeying the do no harm mantra many, thankfully not all, are stubbornly not trying every single treatment under the sun.

Why is this protocol not being followed for each and every patient?
https://covid19data.com/2020/03/04/expert-consensus-on-comprehensive-treatment-of-coronavirus-disease-in-shanghai-2019/

What can the common person do? Very very simple. Boost your immunity. Aerobic exercise. Proper sleep. Stress control. Social distancing. And high dose vitamin C 2 grams per day(or more up to bowel tolerance) and vitamin D3 up to 10,000 units daily. Vitamin C and D3 will help immunity and protect the lungs. This virus could be deadly so having “expensive urine” is well worth the expense as no vaccination yet exists. Many will laugh about using vitamins and yet conventional medicine has no solution. If despite taking such precautions one is short of breath, consider it an emergency and act rapidly. This is the protocol that I follow as I am considered a first responder and work in cardiac care. By taking such measures this help to lessen anxiety by actually doing something and such diminished anxiety will help with correct decision making.

It is correct that the oil patch scenario is a nightmare. Kenney doesnt get it and neither does Trudeau. There must be a PST to pay for government. Period. Additionally, North America should consider sanctions on both Chinese goods as they are yet again responsible for this Covid Virus and against Saudi Arabia as independence is needed from this nation as well. It is quite unclear as to why the pipelines were not built 20 years ago as while oil spills are bad, oil is not radioactive and as such spills can be dealt with when and if they occur.

While people are waiting perhaps they should consider how much they still have: Motorized vehicles(no horses and buggies), internet(unlimited learning), largely functioning healthcare(for the most part you dont have to figure out everything yourself except for Covid now), clean running water(no cadmium or arsenic in Calgary water and doesnt require boiling to drink), electricity(no candles required-yet), natural gas(dont have to locate the trees or coal and fire it up to heat your residence). I am grateful for all these things and dont even consider going on a vacation like all these self centered people flying around who spread Covid 19.

#285 Wrk.dover on 03.31.20 at 1:35 pm

Solar power-I know this one!

As well as having had solar hot water for several years, I now have personal consumption grid tied solar electric power as I first mentioned on the weekend in the hot water heater conversation.

It is amazing what can be earned with solar on a gloomy day with it in my well balanced and diversified tangible asset investment portfolio.

Not as lucrative right now, $10,000 worth of stand alone panels will run a run about car 30 miles every day. The catch is you will need one battery charging while the car is away using up the battery you charged yesterday. That, is if you want to avoid mixing into the utility system up with grid tie, which would involve more expense for additional components, but alternately only the on board battery for the car.

Or, you could get $10,000 worth of vanity options instead and gas up every week. Which you probably already do. Carry on then.

#286 JB on 03.31.20 at 2:00 pm

#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 8:55 pm

@#142 Bob Dog
“How about some useful info like when will the market bottom so I can pile in. ”
++++

Well.
If Garth told us all when the market was at the bottom.
And we all jumped in and made a killing.
The authorities would realize there was market manipulation and arrest Garth.
Garth would then be forced to admit he’s actually a space/time traveler from Nictonite.
Smoking Man, Garth, Matt Damon…..all the decent aliens would have to leave.
Then we’d be stuck with the weird ones, Trudeau, Freeland , Trump…..
So.
No.
He’s not giving you free advice.

…………………………………………………………….
So where the hell is that Smoking guy? He used to rant all over these pages.
Best entertainment ever.
Amazon Prime, Hulu and Netflix have nothing on his comedy show here.
Please come back Smoking Man. Every time I see T2 step up to the podium I wait with baited breath for your great oration on his ultimate demise.

#287 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 2:00 pm

#284 calgary rip off on 03.31.20 at 1:24 pm

The reality is that many doctors are uncomfortable to utilize protocols without clear evidence. This is very very stupid.

——————-

I know, right?

Kill one person with non-protocol ‘medicine’ and the medical board acts like it’s such a big deal.

Can’t make an omelet without cracking eggs, amirite?

#288 BS on 03.31.20 at 2:04 pm

#280 Abc123 on 03.31.20 at 1:08 pm

Well, I am not so naive to believe that a decline in RE prices can not happen again. In fact , we had one recently in and around 2017 with the ushering in of the stress test.
My belief is that it will be short lived and largely insignificant to the broader, bullish trend.

Fact remains that the enormous numbers of buyers waiting on the sidelines for the slightest decline caused them to pounce back then and will again. The hunger for bricks remains unabated and fully fueled by easy access to credit, mortgage insurance etc.

You miss 4 key points. Incomes and peoples savings will be lower. Credit will not be available like it was before. When buyers are on the sidelines and prices are going down they tend to remain on the sidelines. Foreign buyers are long gone and not coming back.

Add in airbnb incomes are toast, landlords may not get their rents and mortgage rates are actually going up now. Real estate is headed for a bust.

#289 Lee on 03.31.20 at 2:05 pm

Small residential landlords face a horrible reality. You can’t kick residential tenants out in Ontario without an order from the landlord and tenant board. It was booking applications for eviction three months down the line before covid. Now that the courts are closed, probably until June, don’t expect to be able to get an eviction order until October and don’t expect the sheriff to evict until February of 2021 unless the courts find the resources to move quickly. I think tenants need to be reasonable. They should not try to take advantage of this situation. Landlords and tenants should start by talking and trying to work out a payment plan both can live with but landlords probably need to accaept they may need to make concessions if tenant has lost his job. Otherwise you’ll get nothing. And don’t try shutting off utilities on a tenant because you could face prosecution and horrendous fines.

#290 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 2:06 pm

@#284 Cowtown rip off
“And high dose vitamin C 2 grams per day(or more up to bowel tolerance)”
+++

So my 20 Vodka and OJ per day is just what the doctor ordered?

#291 Russ on 03.31.20 at 2:16 pm

calgary rip off on 03.31.20 at 1:24 pm

Thank you for the post.

W…

Richard Cheng MD PhD Shanghai has clear protocols on how to treat Covid 19 patients. This includes a combination of tradional western medicine + TCM + IV vitamin C. It is argued that 1)Vitamin C has no evidence and 2) it is too inexpensive. The reality is that many doctors are uncomfortable to utilize protocols without clear evidence. This is very very stupid. How exactly are alveoli to recover if the patient has not enough immunity or correct immune response? And this is why so many are panicking despite the low percentage statistics of death. Health care providers dont know what the hell they are doing. Instead of obeying the do no harm mantra many, thankfully not all, are stubbornly not trying every single treatment under the sun.
=================================================================

There is not enough discussions on covid19 therapies alright. Trump may be on the right track supporting the malaria drug trials. Who knows? The TDS gang will explode if there is even a slim benefit to it.

I too have “very expensive urine” :)
For years, taking 3000 mg or vitamin C & 1000 Lysine after reading up on Dr. Linus Pauling. Recently added vitamin D3 after blog dog “G” posting the Dr. John Campbell youtub links

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linus_Pauling

excerpt from the medical research section:
Pauling’s work on vitamin C in his later years generated much controversy. He was first introduced to the concept of high-dose vitamin C by biochemist Irwin Stone in 1966. After becoming convinced of its worth, Pauling took 3 grams of vitamin C every day to prevent colds.[13] Excited by his own perceived results, he researched the clinical literature and published Vitamin C and the Common Cold in 1970.

The old medical columnist Dr. Gifford-Jones is also a fan.
https://ethicalnag.org/2014/02/14/w-gifford-jones-vitamin-c-lysine/

I think it was in Linus Pauline’s work where I learned that vitamin C is consumed by the mammal when under stress and that humans are the only mammals that do not make their own vitamin C.
Isn’t that remarkable?
Anyone under stress these days?

Mmm. It might be time to add Johnson & Johnson to the hobby portfolio.

Cheers, R

#292 Lost...but not leased on 03.31.20 at 2:26 pm

Rent Strike:

On news, stated over 1 million have signed the petition for rent strike.

BCGEU President is leading the charge.

( Really? How about a concurrent Tax strike).

#293 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 2:29 pm

DELETED

#294 gattaca on 03.31.20 at 2:37 pm

One thing reading these posts is too many people are media illiterate. Or people are mindlessly pushing their agenda.

Links posted often have been pulled by host for violating standards. Many of the authors or sources are known for years for posting dubious theories but are proudly presented as authoritative voices. youtube links show their past videos spouting wild theories.

#295 NoName on 03.31.20 at 2:44 pm

#290 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.20 at 2:06 pm
@#284 Cowtown rip off
“And high dose vitamin C 2 grams per day(or more up to bowel tolerance)”
+++

So my 20 Vodka and OJ per day is just what the doctor ordered?

I concur that oj and potato drink, for many in sterage section, i recommend some sun exposere and vitamin D.
Note go easy on vid D if you dont it’ll tax your TP stash…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAHhhweamIU

#296 Lost...but not leased on 03.31.20 at 2:51 pm

#287 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 2:00 pm
#284 calgary rip off on 03.31.20 at 1:24 pm

The reality is that many doctors are uncomfortable to utilize protocols without clear evidence. This is very very stupid.

——————-

I know, right?

Kill one person with non-protocol ‘medicine’ and the medical board acts like it’s such a big deal.

Can’t make an omelet without cracking eggs, amirite?

===========================

One of THE leading causes of death is intervention by modern medicine and Big Pharma.

Italy:…majority of those that died from the alleged virus had pre-existing health conditions, average age around 80 and were given drugs with very bad side effects.

#297 Cto on 03.31.20 at 2:57 pm

#245 IHCTD9 on
“Libs spending might be creating a problem we just won’t be able to climb out of.”

And this is when modern monetary policy steps in,
I’m sure the Liberals will welcome it with open arms!
Time for the Liberals to erase old debts And make all things new again paint everything over nice and shiny and all is well,
As money is endless!!!! And conservation is stupid!!!

#298 Mattl on 03.31.20 at 3:01 pm

Howard – a small percentage of homeowners being allowed to defer payments by their private lender is hardly a bailout. And it is definitely not a taxpayer subsidy.

So ya, no bailouts for homeowners, no tax money in the Trudeau package specifically targeting homeowners. No programs in place as long as I’ve been a homeowner.

The idea that the 30% that rent, and generate half the income of the 70% of Canadians that own is ridiculous.

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/housing-observer-online/2018-housing-observer/homeowners-income-was-about-double-that-of-renters-2016

#299 JohnInCrazyVictoria on 03.31.20 at 3:01 pm

I know this isn’t a virus blog but if people did some actual digging you would find so much scientific evidence to support that this virus is not as deadly as the media and our average no brain politicians are making it out to be.
Seriously, if someone told you we have to shut down the world economy and absolutely destroy so much of it, would you think it would be a virus that is a little more deadly than the seasonal flu or something on the scale of Ebola?!
We’ve lost our minds, people are now shaming each other for what others perceive to be gathering to close. So many are distracted and missing the point that the ones in charge are fleecing the public trough yet again!
In politics, there’s a saying that goes something like ‘Never waste a good crisis.’ Well, they’re not and we are totally blind. All this public money that is someone all of a sudden available for bailouts of all kinds yet our healthcare flounders along with the workers in it.
Had we been prepared we could have handled it like Taiwan or Singapore but instead we waited and now we overreact. We are now beholden to public servants at the highest level, provincial health officers, who are supposed to be esteemed medical professionals who can critically think and instead they just follow their marching orders, pathetic.
Check out day by day stats and reports showing how this isn’t as big as some people fear:
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

#300 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.31.20 at 3:14 pm

#279 Brett in Calgary on 03.31.20 at 1:08 pm sez:

“This steerage section is hilarious. “Always will” and “never again”… full of absolutes. It’s our kids who will suffer our stupidity (all kinds, including the usual oil-gas bashing) with the bloated taxes we are signing them up for. I can’t imagine the old folks homes they will put us in.”
——————————————————–
Who is this “we” of which you speak? You mean the millennials, women, and 416ers who voted for the current government? All 32% of them?

#301 world traveller on 03.31.20 at 3:15 pm

It’s amazing how quickly things have changed and how character has been revealed.
In my community there is a Facebook page where self-professed experts get to shame everyone else for not self-isolating, not staying 6 feet away, looking at them the wrong way, wearing the wrong coloured pants etc. It’s frightening how easily society in many countries have become like a page out of 1984 with everyone snitching on each other and shaming behavior. I certainly will be looking at these people in my community in a different light when this is all over. They want self isolation? I’ll be more than happy to give them a wide berth when I see them on the street.

#302 Mattl on 03.31.20 at 3:18 pm

Howard – very little of the deferral money is going to hit markets. I know this because I called my bank to try and get the deferral to do just that – invest – but had to prove loss of job/income. I doubt anyone that can prove hardship has investments today, or would put needed cashflow into markets.

Further, banks have always worked with borrowers. You can go through a bankruptcy and keep your home. Banks do not want to own residential real estate and have been restructuring deals forever. This is why defaults are so low, they will only let you go into default if there is 100% chance you will never dig out.

This 6 month deferral is good business for the banks and is not paid for in any way by taxpayers.

As of today the only government programs that I’m aware of are hostile to homeowners , like the foreign buyer tax, empty home taxes, the stress test. All of these were meant to drive RE prices down and/or tax owners.

I do think that gov would come in with billions of dollars to prop up homeowners if RE crashed – and I’d be opposed to that – but lets wait until that actually happens please.

Anyways, surprised this is news to anyone on a finance / RE blog so I’m out on this one.

#303 MF on 03.31.20 at 3:27 pm

301 world traveller on 03.31.20 at 3:15

Uh huh.

And i guess the conspiracy theory nutcases and ammo buying drama queens are normal?

You are right though. Watch people’s responses. A frantic and over exaggerated response in any form signals something wrong and dangerous in the individual.

MF

#304 Sail away on 03.31.20 at 3:34 pm

#296 Lost…but not leased on 03.31.20 at 2:51 pm

One of THE leading causes of death is intervention by modern medicine and Big Pharma.

Italy:…majority of those that died from the alleged virus had pre-existing health conditions, average age around 80 and were given drugs with very bad side effects.

————–

Could be accurate, I don’t know. I personally avoid all elective medicines like the plague, but also avoid all homeoquackery the same. Unfortunately, one sister in law is a true devotee of the homeoquackery.

Look to your dogs: if they need medicine, it’s for a very real reason. Other than that, proper exercise, proper rest when needed and a proper diet resolve 99.99% of the issues.

#305 Hawk on 03.31.20 at 3:54 pm

#292 Lost…but not leased on 03.31.20 at 2:26 pm

As an ex-residential landlord, I am actually hoping that tenants will be unwise enough to act out their threats en-masse and stop paying rents.

Yes it will mean a hugh bath, for many small time residential landlords, but I have a strong feeling that it will also result in a mass exodus of such landlords from this industry.

I then forsee a major consolidation, with big time players and corporates, who will force the government to change the laws. One thing is absolutely certain (the big banks and deal estate cartels prove), ………when you are big enough the government tells the trash to screw off and enforces property rights. Sad but that is true, particularly for USA and Canada.

And tenants will really wish that they had not driven out the small time landlords out of the marketplace.

#306 TheDood on 03.31.20 at 3:59 pm

#288 BS on 03.31.20 at 2:04 pm
#280 Abc123 on 03.31.20 at 1:08 pm

Well, I am not so naive to believe that a decline in RE prices can not happen again. In fact , we had one recently in and around 2017 with the ushering in of the stress test.
My belief is that it will be short lived and largely insignificant to the broader, bullish trend.

Fact remains that the enormous numbers of buyers waiting on the sidelines for the slightest decline caused them to pounce back then and will again. The hunger for bricks remains unabated and fully fueled by easy access to credit, mortgage insurance etc.
======================
You miss 4 key points. Incomes and peoples savings will be lower. Credit will not be available like it was before. When buyers are on the sidelines and prices are going down they tend to remain on the sidelines. Foreign buyers are long gone and not coming back.

Add in airbnb incomes are toast, landlords may not get their rents and mortgage rates are actually going up now. Real estate is headed for a bust.
_________________________________________

More important is how many will still be working when the music stops and COVID goes away?

I love how the RE pumpers just keep pumping it. Oh yeah, buyers are everywhere with loads of money to keep prices skyrocketing. Please. Life as we know it ceased when the lockdown started 2 weeks ago. What it looks like when this all blows over is anyone’s guess. Some things will be the same, lots will be different though. Who gives a rats ass about GTA RE anyways.

#307 Howard on 03.31.20 at 4:26 pm

#298 Mattl on 03.31.20 at 3:01 pm
Howard – a small percentage of homeowners being allowed to defer payments by their private lender is hardly a bailout. And it is definitely not a taxpayer subsidy.

So ya, no bailouts for homeowners, no tax money in the Trudeau package specifically targeting homeowners. No programs in place as long as I’ve been a homeowner.

The idea that the 30% that rent, and generate half the income of the 70% of Canadians that own is ridiculous.

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Not a bailout, no, but government interference (CMHC is government, you realize?) for the benefit of homeowners. Yet again. CMHC could have chosen not to allow lenders to offer this. What’s even better is that homeowners who take the deferral don’t even have to undergo a credit downgrade. Deferring mortgage payments ought to make people less creditworthy for future loans.

And for the 1000th time, you are conflating income and income tax brackets with living situation. You insist on employing this logical fallacy in post after post ad nauseum. What’s your response then to high-income people who, through whatever circumstances, happen to be renting?

#308 world traveller on 03.31.20 at 4:49 pm

#303 MF on 03.31.20 at 3:27 pm

No the gun nuts and conspiracy theorists are just as bad.
I think being insufferable is a symptom of Covid-19

#309 Brett in Calgary on 03.31.20 at 6:09 pm

#300 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.31.20 at 3:14 pm
#279 Brett in Calgary on 03.31.20 at 1:08 pm sez:
“This steerage section is hilarious. “Always will” and “never again”… full of absolutes. It’s our kids who will suffer our stupidity (all kinds, including the usual oil-gas bashing) with the bloated taxes we are signing them up for. I can’t imagine the old folks homes they will put us in.”
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Who is this “we” of which you speak? You mean the millennials, women, and 416ers who voted for the current government? All 32% of them?
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All voting age Canadians. 32% are women?

#310 Pritzl on 04.01.20 at 10:32 am

I don’t understand how a smart person can miss the point of the current measures. Yes, COVID-19 has killed far fewer people than the flu does each year… so far. If you wait until it is a concern it will be too late.

So while panic is unwarranted, the social distancing measures are vital to stop this becoming a catastrophe. Preventing “exponential” growth is the key here. With 8K currently infected, an R(0) factor of 2: x = a*b^t/r = 8000 * 2 ^ 12 = 32 million cases in just 12 weeks! Even if only 6% of those people need hospital beds that’s still 2 million beds! Most of those would die when the actual beds run out. Social distancing is designed to reduce that R factor and stop that worst case scenario. e.g.: a reduction of R(0) from 2 to 1.2: x = 8000 * 1.2^12 = 71K in 12 weeks.

Just look at the US’s delayed response. They are now approaching 1K dead per day.

#311 Pritzl on 04.01.20 at 10:36 am

“When the infection rate was far less than one-tenth of one per cent in China, why will it be 60% here? Curious. – Garth”

China locked down hard and fast, that’s why. That’s what we’re hoping to emulate without the draconian measures.