Sunday, March 29th, 2020. Today 5,600 people have the virus in our nation. Over 4,900 (or 98%) of the cases are mild. Across Canada 120 victims are hospitalized, serious. Sixty have died. Bless them and their families.
The infection rate nationally, thus far, is 0.015%. Three weeks ago the federal health minister said it could be between 30% and 70%. That is two thousand times the current level. Thus, it’s hard to know where truth lies. Does an overwhelming deluge lie ahead? Or was shutting down the entire economy, idling millions, an error? Perhaps we shall know that, come the autumn.
Nonetheless, damage is being done. On many levels. Recovery is uncertain. Fear is the disease of choice. The infection rate is 100%.
Over the last year Dorothy rediscovered the joy of physical books. Remember them? Made of actual paper, sometimes with sensual, ragged edges. Embossed covers. Original art. Something to hold that never lights up, runs out of juice or beeps. So I bought her a frequent-user card at the friendly little bookstore down the street, and load it up on birthdays and anniversaries (the perfect guy gift).
‘No walk-ins!’ the sign said, so she called to get a new work of fiction. “It will be in a bag at the front door,” the bookstore lady said. And it was. But the clerk wouldn’t come within ten feet. “I can’t touch your card,” she said. Dread permeated the empty store. The terrified worker could not get Dorothy out fast enough – who, three weeks ago, had been embraced. Cash flow matters not, when faced with imminent death by plastic.
As you know, normal is gone. Following are the voices of some who were in touch with me this weekend.
From a blog dog in Ontario:
I had to write in to tell you a story after reading “The emergency” blog. A friend of the family, late 30s surgeon making $800,000 a year, tells my family they are applying for government benefits because they have no income after elective surgeries have been cancelled. They just spent over $250,000 on kitchen (not the whole house just the kitchen) renovations. They have no savings. Live large with big ski holidays, biking adventures and apparently single room renovations that cost more than some people’s homes.
I never thought it possible that people with this billing capacity could have no savings. But there you go. Even those responsible for the lives of others don’t have enough common sense for basic financial responsibility. Thank you for helping all of us readers from becoming a jaw dropping example of this foolishness.
From a reader in Langley, BC, responding to a blog post on Canadians’ lack of savings:
Ok well i have about 25k in savings that me and my wife have been able to save over the last 10 years. She was a student for many of those years and we have two kids. How long do you think that savings will last us? Luckily our rent is comparatively cheap for our city. So we can go probably about 8 months with 3k per month outflow of cash. And then what?
Not to mention that my entire savings would be destroyed. Its for emergencies, so i am now using it for an emergency. But this crisis touches everyone. If i had all my savings in the stock market, would you advise i remove it when we are at historic lows? Would i have a choice if i had to buy food and rent? So spare me the condescension on how its the peoples fault. It is the riches fault, like most everything in society.
It is societies fault (driven by the rich) that the system is rigged so that people have to live paycheque to paycheque. Hopefully this will cause a massive reorganization of society where we go after all the rich who have the money, multiple properties, etc, and redistribute it to the people. Universal basic income, and taxing all investments and other vehicles that the rich use to make money for no actual work would be a great start.
Get those millionaires digging f*kn ditches for the dead. The revolution is a few missed meals away, and we are almost there.
From a reader in Montreal:
I am writing you from my now usual 3:00 am insomnia. Like the whole world, I am watching the events unfold in horror and disbelief. This new virus is shocking in how fast it is spreading, and its lethality, while not that of the bubonic plague or even the Spanish flu, took us by surprise. But viruses have always co-evolved with the human species, and over the generations, humans got sick and died and died and died until they developed a herd immunity. But we became so arrogant as a species that we’ve come to think this is unacceptable and that this “shouldn’t happen”.
Most of my revenue comes from my portfolio, that lost a third of its peak value. I am not panicking, and panicking would be totally useless anyway, since there is nothing I can do. So I try to find little gems to brighten my days (baking for friends and bringing my daily pastry to one
friend or another, while respecting social distance and hygiene rules, taking online yoga classes, volunteering for grocery/pharmacy shopping for my ageing neighbours, and marvelling at how lucky and privileged I am compared to so many.I am reading your blog and it gives me the sane voice much needed these days. I just want to say thank you, and I hope you are not being overwhelmed by panicking or angry clients. I hope that in the midst of this global catastrophe, you take time to rest and be with your wife and beloved Bandit.
From our nation’s capital:
I just wanted to follow up on your blog post re the Service Canada Centre shutdowns.
I am a federal civil servant in Ottawa and I am just so upset about this. This is supposed to be the time that the civil service steps up and helps the country through this. Aside from being incredibly tone deaf, we are letting Canadians down at a very critical juncture.
Belonging to the civil service used to be something of which to be proud. It has become a meal ticket and we should be ashamed of ourselves.
About the picture: “I wanted to share with you a photograph my wife took a few days ago,” writes Craig. “This is the Shambles, one of the oldest shopping streets in York, UK, where we live, dating from the 15th century and which is normally a very busy and bustling place. Alas, in the lock-down, these two dogs were alone. The emptiness paints a good picture of how this virus has brought life to a halt.”
I pray we know what we’re doing.
380 comments ↓
Most fear the unknown, and this is the only incalculable datapoint in all our charts, predictions, efforts.
Bless all those affected by this crisis and especially the virus.
Bless the family with 25k savings and blaming the rich for his problems, even though he is very misled and should rather be blaming the government which fosters the environment we all live in.
Bless you, Garth, for attempting to keep your following calm during these challenging times.
Garth you should have prayed for what we WERE doing – that is the debt each Cdn individual carries, the debt municipal/provincial/federal governments carry. (Actually your history of blogs proved you already did – may the love of Garth be with you). There are a lot of people in tough situations during these tough times. It’s like we’ve all been sent to our rooms (literally) for bad behavior. The question is what is the future – what is the countermeasure? As one “adviser” says, buy gold, silver and guns. Has it really come to that?
Garth,
I am contemplating taking out a $50k loan, to invest in the stock market seeing as we just had that correction that comes every ten years. My thinking is now would be a great time to buy 100% equity ETF in hopes of catching the upward trend that is coming in the next year. Am I sane? My wife and I are 35, have a $500k net worth and make $250k/year so a $50k loan is manageable. My second question is if I get the loan should I put it in a TFSA or leave it in unregistered so I can deduct the interest off the loan?
I am afraid that the bottom In The stock market is still a long way off. After all economic engine is off so what is there to move stock market forward?
On the other hand , when the financial market takes its regular dumps as it has just done, people go to ground. Real estate prices in the GTA have largely been unaffected. Look to higher prices on the back of lower interest rates and stimulus, not to mention an increase in the “ houses are safe “ mentality
Thanks Garth, for the ongoing calm, clear perspective in these lousy times.
#287 Eliza on 03.29.20 at 12:13 am
Provincial gov’t worker here – still working and rolling out all the emergency funding programs. We are overwhelmed but doing the best we can. Please be patient.
—————-
Thank you for your service to the country.
“The infection rate nationally, thus far, is 0.015%. Three weeks ago the federal health minister said it could be between 30% and 70%. That is two thousand times the current level. Thus, it’s hard to know where truth lies. Does an overwhelming deluge lie ahead? Or was shutting down the entire economy, idling millions, an error?”
The infection rate is 0.015% nationally BECAUSE we shut down the entire economy.
Don’t want to live like N. Italy? Like your elders? Stay home.
BREAKING AMAZING NEWS!!!!!!
Don’t panic everyone, there is Good News At Last!!
MAKE BELIEVES ARE UNBEATEN FOR OVER 20 DAYS!!!!
That’s right, Toronto’s imitation hockey franchise has not lost a game since what seems like a lifetime ago, March 6!
Over Three WEEKS!
They might be undefeated for the REST OF THE SEASON!
WoooooHoooooooooooooooo!!!!
GET OUT ON YOUR BALCONIES AND SING, TORONTURDS!!!!!
CELEBRATE ON THE EMPTY STREETS!!!!
(Medical Advisory: But please maintain the normal Toronto Anti-Social Distancing of at least 6 feet. Not because of the virus, just because the other people are, well, Torontonians.)
You continue to minimize the virus in every post. It’s unfortunate and dumb.
Please correct the stats quoted, if incorrect. – Garth
This flu bug is nothing more than a scam to cover for broken markets and out of control debt. Supply chains were already broken markets were already teetering.
People are mentioning they are buying the dip. Investing isn’t looking at where the prices were and buying because they’re lower. If that’s your style call it speculating.
Your loving governments are going to take full advantage of the real working class here makes me sick to see no attacks on the central banking system creating this mess intentionally in the first place. Bye bye freedom or what’s left of it.
Garth,
Do I sense a touch of doom in this entry? Thus far anyway, you have maintained a positive outlook as to where this is heading.
This entry of yours makes me beg the question….are you still upbeat about where this ends?
The economic outcome is evident. But we will end up with far more government. – Garth
“Nonetheless, damage is being done. On many levels. Recovery is uncertain. Fear is the disease of choice. The infection rate is 100%.”
———————–
Agreed. Probably 80% fear of the virus but 100% fear of the uncertainty.
So many people out hiking, kayaking, frisbee golfing and enjoying the nice weather these days.
Never have dogs been so happy.
Those who know me understand I have 3 bales of Cosco TP. They also know that has always been my number. 3 of almost everthing. Never lived week to week, never considered my way of life to be hoarding. Just prepared. I am helping some in my circle panic less and prepare more right now. We have been self isolated since March 12. When looking for calm I read the greaterfool.ca and a few others. Common sense lives here. I watch my community daily, hourly…Ghost Town mostly. Hope most can keep the bad choices small ones.
Hydroxychloroquine…
Works, according to Novartis and even lefist bastion G&M say its the only thing we got.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/novartis-ceo-says-malaria-drug-072752054.html
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-trumps-miracle-covid-19-drug-deserves-a-chance-it-may-be-all-weve/
And if it does, people don’t seem to realize the implications of this drug. If covid 19 can be treated with this drug then so can every other type of flu or even the common cold. In fact every disease with a viral cause can be treated. Pneumonia, hepatitis, gastrointestinal, dengue fever, etc. 18% of cancers have a viral cause and some scientist think Alzheimer’s is the result of latent viral load over many years.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/325313
Why did Trump have to highlight this drug and not the FDA talking head or the big pharma clowns?
Bud, this will be against 3 of my rules of investment:
– never put all your eggs in one basket (100% equity)
– never try to time the market – you can’t, neither can the professionals
– never borrow to invest
Considering your income level matches ours, you should have some savings and investments already. Just continue investing in a balanced portfolio, don’t pay attention to daily market fluctuations and rebalance once a year or when the allocation strays by more than 5%. If you have a longer investment horizon the probability of doing well is high.
In regards to the current bear market, no one knows if we are near the bottom. They expect the peak of cases for US to be around mid-May, so we could drop another 20% or so. If you borrow 50k and invest now, are you going to keep holding the investments if you loose 10k or more? It may be couple of years before the market reaches the highs from February.
This may not be over quickly.
A top government official in France has admitted that draconian lockdown measures being imposed on the rest of the population shouldn’t be implemented in the country’s migrant-heavy ghettos in order to prevent riots.
In a letter leaked to magazine Le Canard Enchaine, French Secretary of State to the Ministry of the Interior Laurent Nunez advises, “It is not a priority to enforce closings in certain neighborhoods and to stop gatherings.”
In a separate video conference call, Nunez told other officials that restricting movement and shutting down shops in France’s infamous banlieues risks igniting violent social disorder if enforced too rigorously.
https://summit.news/2020/03/27/french-official-says-quarantine-should-not-be-enforced-in-migrant-areas-to-avoid-riots/
Community spirit is thriving. How many people didn’t know their neighbours, that now do. Caremongering is an ever expanding movement. Hunker down, stay healthy and plank the curve.
Greta for the win
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/03/28/cuomo-new-york-quarantine-would-be-federal-declaration-of-war/#619dd3602292
Topline: Following reports that President Trump was considering an “enforceable quarantine” of the tri-state area, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said in an interview with CNN on Saturday night that such a tactic was of questionable legality and would amount to no less than a “federal declaration of war.”
Crucial quote: “This would be a federal declaration of war on states,” Cuomo said, while also adding that he doubts that the President is looking to do that. “I’ve sued the federal government a number of times over the years. I do not believe it’s going to come to that on this,” he said.
Not to worry. Justin’s here to help.
Long time reader here. I posted a few times 8 long years ago regarding my desire to leave the corporate life and begin training to become a Registered Nurse. I’m happy to report that I graduated with distinction a little over 4 years ago, and now work in my desired field.
I’m grateful for the opportunity to be employed through this crisis. I’m also scared of the what might happen if we don’t socially isolate. Cases are popping up all over the wards, and our PPE is limited. Theft is rampant. I wish more people cared for society as a whole and less about profiteering and self interest.
I go to work for all of my scheduled shifts, often working overtime to help my colleagues and patients. I do this knowing I’m at great risk of infecting myself and my family. I do this because it’s the right thing to do.
It deeply saddens me to hear of what is transpiring with the civil servants. Step up and help your fellow Canadians. We need you.
Thank you for your service, dedication and caring attitude. Your words inspire, as they should shame those have retreated when help is needed most. – Garth
Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor”
https://mobile.twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1234648718714036229
Garth… thank-you for continuing to be a calm, sane voice thru all of this, and for the many years I have been reading you.
I am shocked at the first letter. It is a well known fact that doctors don’t know jack about money and most cant balance a chequebook.
In NYC they have repurposed every hospital to covid clinics and all electives postponed. Some hospitals are empty with staff standing around waiting. In Canada electives, scans, visits to specialists are all pushed out by one year. If the US is the same, then you have doctors filing for bankruptcy along side a pandemic. Hard to know what to feel about that one.
After months of Canada’s medical experts and politicians telling us there was nothing to worry about/we’re listening to the science, etc.. A fairly damning article on their failure:
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/national/the-road-to-canadas-covid-19-outbreak-timeline-of-federal-government-failure-at-border-to-slow-the-virus/
Part of me can’t help but feel we are being played – the changes that are taking place will cement more government control and increase the power authorities have over the sheeple. We will not be going back to the previous normal – Banks will have more control over you and fee you to death – this is quite the social experiment taking place and the future will be a darker place because of it
We must be getting close to the bottom if hedge fund managers have to pump fear to drive stocks down:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1X5iKu6DZqg
Re: Yukon Elvis.
Blogdogs, check your sources before posting links: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/summit-news/
Hello Garth,
I’ve only recently over the last few months been following your blog which I enjoy very much. I’m a late 40s BC surgeon and will admit I have done my own investing for the last 10 years. I’m conservative by nature and my idea of balance and comfort is 35% equity , 65% fixed income. I admit to selling equity into the drop in 2008/2009 and that in retrospect was the wrong thing to do. I’m sure you can understand that reading a large number of these posts does not give one a great deal of comfort that things will ever brighten up. As someone who was not reading your blog in 2008/2009, are the calls for financial Armageddon this time around any more prevalent?
Read some interesting news stories from Sweden, where attitude has been more relaxed, but infection and death rates are not too much worse than everywhere else yet (touch wood, fingers crossed…)
Apparently, their government’s main message was something like: “Hey, we are all adults. Let everyone just do the responsible adult thing, given circumstances.”
i.e. Government just issues some loose guidelines, rather than orders and decrees, and then relies on the common sense and responsibility of its citizens, rather than enforcement.
And interestingly enough, the effect so far is not as different as you might expect from places under strict lockdown with brutal enforcement.
Elders and sick are isolating and staying aloof anyway…
Office workers are all working remotely anyway…
People are keeping their distance anyway…
Not much in way of crowds and big gatherings anyway…
Businesses open, but with 1/10-th of normal attendance anyway…
All in all, necessary sensible behaviours and things that need doing mostly kind of get done. Only without government decrees and SWAT teams to enforce them.
***
So, blog dogs, I’d like you all to answer me this question.
Look around you… Look at the people on this blog…
… in your neighbourhood …
… in your workplace …
… in your social circle …
Listen to them. Look at those faces…
Then look deep into your heart and answer me this.
In times like these, do you trust your neighbours and countrymen to be as sensible as an average Swede and do the right, proper, responsible, sensible things without government ordering and cops enforcing?
Well… Do you?
“Today 5,600 people have the virus in our nation. Over 4,900 (or 98%) of the cases are mild.”
That should be 88%, no? Or is my ciphering askew?
Some cases are closed. People (like Mrs. Trudeau) recovered and 61 died. – Garth
As a gesture of good will, My CEO is ‘self-isolating’ from 25% of his salary this year (he made $9.5 million in 2017, $11.5 million in 2018, TBA in 2019). Has there been any recent media reports of hoarding of beef tenderloin, caviar, and Dom Perignon? Just askin….
Meanwhile, the parking lots south of Toronto Pearson airport at Centennial Park (No Overnight Parking 12:00 AM – 06:00 AM) are gradually being populated with people ‘self-isolating’ overnight in their steamed-window cars. Mississauga Parking Authorities are politely looking the other way.
How does that French saying about sleeping under bridges go again?
$3 – Bud
If you want to be greedy AF, at least don’t try to put the responsibility on someone else.
To the dude from Langley:
We can’t all eat caviar…some of us have to eat shit sandwiches…stop blaming the rich…stay safe and wash your hands.
15Vlad on 03.29.20 at 12:37 pm
Bud, this will be against 3 of my rules of investment:
– never put all your eggs in one basket (100% equity)
– never try to time the market – you can’t, neither can the professionals
– never borrow to invest
Considering your income level matches ours, you should have some savings and investments already. Just continue investing in a balanced portfolio, don’t pay attention to daily market fluctuations and rebalance once a year or when the allocation strays by more than 5%. If you have a longer investment horizon the probability of doing well is high.
In regards to the current bear market, no one knows if we are near the bottom. They expect the peak of cases for US to be around mid-May, so we could drop another 20% or so. If you borrow 50k and invest now, are you going to keep holding the investments if you loose 10k or more? It may be couple of years before the market reaches the highs from February.
———
Does rule number 3 also apply to real estate investments?
Ya didn’t think so lol
To the “reader from Langley”
You have $25,000.00 saved?
By Canadian financial standards…..
You’re one of the “rich”…
I hope you’ll enjoy digging ditches for the dead.
Captain Pickard is here to calm everyone down.
Make yourself a Tea, Earl Grey, hot, and let Sir Patrick Stewart read you some Shakespeare.
https://www.gmanetwork.com/entertainment/celebritylife/news/61106/patrick-stewart-recites-shakespearean-sonnets-daily-on-twitter/story
It’s all hubris and narcissism, Gartho. People have become so self centred that we’ve had to put the needs of the one, or the few, above the needs of the many. We live in an age where people are terrified of their own mortality Our grandparents knew death was part of life, and it was good fortune to live into your 80s, not a right. Nowadays, a small chance of dying is enough to suspend civil liberties and shut down the economy, but at what cost? Long term, social and economic collapse are a lot worse than the virus on a societal level. But people are no longer focussed on the greater good, are they? They’re just concerned about the individual risk. I do get some of this- we’re being extra cautious while we determine what the real risks are, and I’m fine with that. But unless those risks turn out to be way worse than currently understood (and it’s trending in an encouraging direction), I don’t support this shutdown for much longer. I think we need to get back to it, let the heard immunity build up, grieve over the ones we lose, and move on. The crude all-cause death rate in Canada rounds to 1pct a year. If Covid has a mortality rate of about 2pct (which it sounds very likely that it is, given the number of shadow cases that are asymtomatic or have mild symptoms, and therefore are never tested and don’t make it into the denominator portion of the deaths/recovered calculation), then we may just have to accept the death rate in Canada is going to triple to 3pct for a year. We can and should throw tremendous resources at our health system during that time- and maybe this lockdown timeout is what we need to get some of those resources mobilized before we open the floodgates- but we shouldn’t be shutting the country down over it.
I’ll be called callous and insensitive; I’m anything but. I’m trying to make people see that the needs of the many outweighs the needs of the one, or the few. Let’s not allow our individual fear of death outweigh the greater prosperity of all.
Peace.
Anyone else notice how lately any Covid19 related deaths are being referred to in the media as having died of “complications from Covid19”?
I’m seeing this on US, Canadian and UK media sites. Last week it was simply “died from Covid19”.
This is a sign of hedging.
They (Gov’t and health experts) already know that many, if not most, of the deaths attributed to Covid19 could just as easily be attributed to something else. Not all, but a significant number.
By adding ‘complications’ to the mix, they will be able, at a later date, to claim that there were multiple possible/probable causes of death – Covid was simply one of them.
I suspect this is happening because experts and govt know that the data that has been gathered will be dutifully mined in the coming years, and that data won’t support the hypothesis that Covid19 kills.
Complications that kill–due to the presence in patients of other extant killer diseases–aren’t so complicated.
Covid19 is an exacerbating factor, nothing more.
The first wave of sharing wealth might be taking that $25K from Langley dude and give it to the soup kitchens that feed the homeless.
If you believe in UBI where do you think that money will come from?
Nobody will work hard or take risk if there is no reward.
You can’t force someone who spent $400K to become a doctor to work for $80k/year when that person can sit on their butt at home for $3k/mo and play video games.
@Millenial Reality
Impressive! A response.
At least you’re not catatonic with fear like the rest of your cohort ( or is that coven?) of mewling fear mongers.
Not to worry Milly. No matter how bad it gets…
Your hero Trudeau and his ever expanding army of “uncivil servants” will ride to the rescue on the 4 Horses of the Financial Apocalypse… Debt, Taxes, Propaganda, and Ruin
I’m a little behind but this one irked me…
#180 Keep Your Rent on 03.27.20 at 8:04 pm
Tenants keep your rent.
Landlords keep your distance.
5 days until tenants get to demand respect.
********
It comes as no surprise at all that you think respect is something one can demand.
Respect is earned, and likely something a thief like you will never have.
Follow through on your promises, make good on your commitments, and pay your debts like a decent human being.
If you can’t make rent you can try and work something out with your landlord, but withholding what is rightfully someone else’s for simple greed or just to try and make a point is despicable.
I sincerely hope there is an official deadbeat database in the works so that landlords can avoid you and your ilk.
I’m a renter for life and I’d help fund that site.
back in “the shambles” next week but that got cancelled. Great place to see for those who haven’t …
From yesterday, thank you crazy fox comment 138 for recommending the interview with South Korean medical professor Dr. Kim Woo-Joo. I hope Garth will allow me to post the link again. The single best source of science based information about the virus I’ve come across.
My personal view is that the crisis is going to be long and drawn out: 12 to 18 months before any approximation of normalcy will return to developed countries. Vaccines usually take between 12 and 15 years to develop so hope lies in treatment not immunization. Investors will have to be patient and I think the bottom will be Dow 15000 and S&P 500 at 1600. I have no intention of selling or buying for a long time. Best wishes to all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU
“The infection rate nationally, thus far, is 0.015%”
——————————–
That may not seem like much, but the infection rate without controls increases exponentially. The key question then becomes: what is the doubling time of infections?
I did a quick back of the envelope calculation and, assuming a weekly doubling, arrived at about a 60% rate in 12 weeks. Obviously, there are all kinds of variables, and my assumptions may be too pessimistic or optimistic.
On the latter, herd immunity should be developing and the virus will run out of non-resistant victims. It would seem that current government policy will slow down the development of herd immunity.
Look to insider buying numbers and let me know if you think we are heading to a Great Depression.
Everyone loves throwing quotes around like “follow the money”, “buy when there’s blood in the streets”, “don;t fight the fed” etc but time and time again a bit of fear and you all swing around and talk about the collapse of the world.
Opportunity can only smack you in the face so hard
Apocalypse preparation
Our lakes and rivers are chock full of trout and city ornamental pools have many koi. Most efficient for trout is a small boat and spinning rod with fly such as Muddler Minnow, Doc Spratley, or Wooly Bugger with small split shot 18″ up the line.
Then just move the boat with as little forward momentum as possible with flies 20′-30′ behind the boat. Reduce distance or weight if you’re hanging up on the bottom. Very effective.
Bring the kids or wife along to increase the family harvest. Just be aware they may become bored. If so, drop them off on shore and continue fishing.
I can verify dubble’s statement that “theft is rampant”. She’s talking about hospitals. The official – and legitimate – reason for the visitor ban was to prevent the spread of the virus in and out of the hospitals. However, another reason for the visitor ban was preventing theft. People were stealing masks, sanitizer, gloves, anything they could get their hands on.
5600 is tested cases. We’ve stopped testing people with symptoms that can self isolate (and they would get tested if they needed to go to a hospital). The real numbers are much higher.
Locally the hospital has started rationing masks for staff. One per shift. So if you want to eat mid shift you have to “safely” remove and store it so you don’t contaminate the inside. I would not want to be a ward nurse.
OR staff get somewhat exempted (one n95 per case that warrants it) otherwise it’s normal surgical masks.
Let’s hope it doesn’t get worse. We have a large aging population and only 50 or so ventilators on the South Island. Whole island has about 150. If things ramp up we’re looking at Italy style choose who gets a ventilator and who doesn’t type decisions.
Garth, long time reader and love your posts.
And I agree with your _observations_
But I’m concerned about the direction you are leading your conclusions. It is very dangerous.
You know the math… 1 infection becomes 2, then 4, then 8, 16, then 32, 64,128,256,1024,2048, 4096.
Your argument seems that 4096 is such a low number…
but if we’re doubling (without social distancing) every 3 days… we’ll be at 130K in less than 3 weeks.
Even at 1% hospitalization that’s 1,300 ADDITIONAL cases in the hospital. At 1.3m infected, that’s 13K hospitalization.
—
For the record, I’m okay with Herd Immunity.
With the given cavaets:
a) Doug Ford and Trudeau (or Trump) must explicitly state: For the sake of our nation, if you get coronavirus, our health care workers will not be able to look after you. It is not fair to them to put their lives in danger.
b) If you get sick, go to these dedicated places for end-of-life care.
Lots of praise for your blog
Your quote…
The economic outcome is evident. But we will end up with far more government. – Garth
please explain the economic outcome is obvious?
Yes I have read your blog
We go from housing meltdown to pent up demand
We go from out of control debt to market bottom
We go from 50 percent of population living pay check to pay check to a million unemployed.
So now, praise how do you restart the economy. All the stores and factors say hey everyone get back to work?
Then full steam ahead?
We are going to build more stuff for people who are to exhausted to buy? Where will the money come from?
Anyway i hope your right. Maybe it’s just a two month paid holiday.
Bankruptcy:The new virus???
Here in BC many companies have “laid off” staff.
It was reported that Steve Nash Fitness World fired their employees and is now in “bankruptcy”. This apparently equates to zero severance.
Wonder how rampant bankruptcy will be as this “pandemic” drags on?
With guarantene government action is required. Without quarantene, people would overwhelm healthcare. Hospitals running show here.. Focus on new cases, which peak at 1 month per statistics. Then 1 month decline. Same in italy, though deaths increasing, new cases diminishing. This is positive.
Fear is secondary effect. Garth can only cheerlead so much. For now, every morning we wake up to same reality. How economies restart I don’t know. Slowly?
This is a money blog, risk to wealth is real. I have taken risk to do nothing to balanced diversified portfolio. Is it different this time? I don’t know. So again i do nothing. Gut wrenching.
Hey Garth.
Make sure Ryan, Doug and Sinan keep in mind a flattening of the curve or new cases doesn’t imply a flattening in the spread. It simply may be the limit to the amount of daily tests.
Kilt.
Not to negate the effects of COVID19 (from SARS-CoV2) worldwide but 101 yrs ago today the 1919 Stanley Cup finals were cancelled before the sixth and deciding game due to the Spanish flu pandemic. The NHL season cancelled again due to a virus albeit a much less deadly one (thankfully). Hockey fans on Garth’s team will appreciate this.
“Estimates vary on the exact number of deaths caused by the disease, but it is thought to have infected a third of the world’s population and killed at least 50 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history.”
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/spanish-flu.html
Info on COVID19
https://www.ersnet.org/the-society/news/novel-coronavirus-outbreak–update-and-information-for-healthcare-professionals
Garth, no one knows what they’re doing- this is new for everyone. what is right or wrong can be decided in 6 months but for now I won’t hate on anything until it all shakes out.
This whole ordeal is tough, but if your loved one dies then nothing would be considered too hard.
I know someone who died from CV-19 who has teenage daughters… I’m sure the kids would trade everything they own for their dad to come back.
on my part, I continue to pay employees but can’t do it in perpetuity so I appreciate the government subsidy.
I am sorry for your loss. Truly. But let’s remember 45,000 people a year in Canada die from smoking. So far the virus has taken 61. – Garth
#4 Abc123 on 03.29.20 at 12:21 pm
GTA real estate is dead.
The entire market was based on leverage and low interest rates. It’s weakness is unemployment, and right now we are at somewhere around 40% unemployment..with no end in sight to the viral threat.
Most of the houses and condos are bought with maximum leverage, and then rented out. This is usually exchange students, regular students, or regular renters. Do you see a similar number of international students coming here any time soon? New immigrants? How about the student who lost his part time job and lived in the basement to “help” with the mortgage? Yeah..he’s moving back home.
Lastly, how can we forget that air b n b is done, or banks are raising interest rates.
Yeah. Toast. But it will take place in slow motion, probably over the next 2-5 years.
The world has changed. Real estate purchases through maximum leverage with a predictable bailout from the bank of canada was the last decade’s strategy. It’s over, and it will get ugly.
MF
#26 Doug t on 03.29.20 at 12:52 pm
Part of me can’t help but feel we are being played – the changes that are taking place will cement more government control and increase the power authorities have over the sheeple. We will not be going back to the previous normal – Banks will have more control over you and fee you to death – this is quite the social experiment taking place and the future will be a darker place because of it
==========================
Yep: We ARE being played like a fiddle.
After the Fear Porn subsides, we see that even if this coronavirus is real, the death rate is far below that of seasonal flu(there are many that feel that is all this is)
What exactly is Gov’t doing?
Seems like they get their jollies with latest “alleged” diagnoses and “alleged “death counts.
WE must be rapidly approaching an inflection point/critical mass that we have the classic” sh*t -or -get- off -the -pot”…aka we “risk” it and get back to work before the point of no return is reached.
Personally, I think it is almost too late.
Your math is wrong, that’s not 98 percent mild symptoms!
Sheesh. Follow the link. There are recovered people in the overall case statistic. – Garth
Nobody knows what the final stats on the virus will be in Canada. All you have to do though is to look at the U.S., which had no coordinated plan to deal with this until relatively recently. It looks like it will spread there for some time. Thankfully we shut our borders.
I agree that this cannot go on for months as an increasing number of people will be pooched financially. But, seriously, I don’t think that there was much of an alternative.
#3 – you make so much money but have $50k of TFSA room? I guess your net worth is all real estate?
#4 – housing prices dont blow up in 2-3 weeks time… its still March. housing is sticky on the way down… let’s see where prices are come September.
I would suggest the surgeon volunteer for duty at a local hospital. They’re going to need every available hand they can get. He’ll no doubt find busting down to Joe Physician pay grade a touch humiliating, but even regular emergency room physician fees must pay better than government benefits? The hours will be unlimited.
Jane Philpott is about to start a sweet new gig as Dean of Health Sciences at Queens, but that hasn’t stopped her from suiting up and serving on the front lines.
https://www.thewhig.com/news/local-news/incoming-queens-dean-returns-to-front-lines-to-fight-pandemic
Some people serve their countries, while others seem to live by the dictum:
“Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what your country can do for me.”
All states and provinces adjacent to New York will have to convert their hospital parking lots with tents and heaters. All medical hands on deck.
If 5 million in NYC get the virus, that will be 150,000 needing ventilators.
They will convert buses into ambulances and drive these folks to whatever hospital is available. Believe me the border will not exist.
The surgeon mentioned above will be able to get work. If he refuses he should not qualify for $2,000.00 per month.
They buy 80% of our exports including a ton of our electricity. They will be able to force Canada to treat their sick, if they get sick first.
Flop’s Corona Virus song of the day.
Dave Matthews Band
The Space Between…
M45BC
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H67uEgRZs2Y
“I pray we know what we’re doing.”
Ummm…. no, most people don’t know. They just follow the herd and the herd isn’t going anywhere. When co-ordinated world events like this happen it is for a reason. The virus is not the problem despite what you are all being told. The real story here, if I may be so bold, is that “It Has Been Decided” that people are just getting too much above their station and it’s time to take you all down a few notches. Believe and follow who you wish……………But Know This, what was yesterday is now “Gone With The Wind”.
From a March 27th comment:
“#307 Jimers on 03.27.20 at 1:23 am
It will be interesting to see what happens to the “dont pay the rent” crowd, people who are typically not disciplined enough to save a down payment for a house, get 6 months behind in rent.”
I think this will be a disaster. My mother in law manages 75 suites and says many will not pay rent. Most of the renters live cheque to cheque, and have little easy capacity to save a surplus. When they fall behind, either through necessity or they foolishly just decide not to pay even if they can afford it, they’ll never dig themselves out of this hole.
With respect to hitting a market bottom, stocks like Apple are still only back to prices we saw in October. Given the magnitude of job losses etc, how can the market possibly think the hit to future sales (assuming it’s always looking at least 6 months ahead) will not be significant. Sure, there are lots who will retain their jobs and incomes, but many will have been hit very hard – see aforementioned renters. Are they all doing their usual iphone upgrade in 12 months? Really??? As we’re always told prices are set at the margins, so may so to is demand. Lose enough of these month-to-month upgraders and you have no increase in sales and so there should be no increase in stock prices.
Hey Langley dude
I’m a 45 year old millionaire because I have been digging ditches since I’m 13 , if it took you 10 years to accumulate 25k I suggest exploring the gig economy part time, I hear amazon has a lot of openings .
The economic outcome is evident. But we will end up with far more government. – Garth
Correct … and it won’t be relinquished
#4 Abc123 on 03.29.20 at 12:21 pm
I am afraid that the bottom In The stock market is still a long way off. After all economic engine is off so what is there to move stock market forward?
On the other hand , when the financial market takes its regular dumps as it has just done, people go to ground. Real estate prices in the GTA have largely been unaffected. Look to higher prices on the back of lower interest rates and stimulus, not to mention an increase in the “ houses are safe “ mentality
====================================================
Please explain how a complete loss of income for millions of Canadians equates to higher numbers of mortgages or people able to pay their current ones?
Must be REALLY fun when one loses their job AND the tenant in their “mortgage helper” loses theirs too. Or when someone’s 2nd, 3rd “investment property” tenant loses theirs. Or when someone has multiple AirBnB props with zero bookings.
Nah, real estate will be fine. Nothing to see here.
—————————————————————————————–
And I “third” the comments about the theft of medical supplies. Sister is a RN on the West Coast, they’ve had to step up security massively to stop equipment from being straight out stolen. As much by employees as by the public.
Lovely, caring people, Canadians.
FYI Spanish flu killed ~55,000 in Canada mostly young adults in their prime age 20-40. (Again not to min effect of current virus globally.)
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thewhig.com/news/local-news/look-back-at-spanish-flu-has-some-local-similarities-to-covid-19/amp
@#30 HH, Swedes have had a very strong preparedness mentality going back to WWII. They’ve long had exigency plans for all sorts of disasters, and there is a very high rate of buy-in and participation among their citizenry. If Canada had been prepared like Sweden (and Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore) life would be more normal here too.
We don’t get to just carry on like the Swedes without preparing like the Swedes first. That would be expecting something for nothing. And we call the Swedes socialists?
To date 3 per cent of all USA restaurants have declared bankruptcy and permanently shut down.
With large chains like Cheesecake Factory declaring an offical rent strike. Food theft and riots have started in Southern Italy with gangs organizing systemic theft from corporate supermarkets. Ghettos in France can self rule and be free of social distance rules because official fear these narco states within their own state. Hypocracy and government venality is obvious. Every week that a comprehensive lock down continues the economic mortality rate increases about 5 to 7 per cent of viable businesses. This is attributed to unrecoverable losses that evaporate equity and solvency. New debt will not cure absent demand. The global average death rates tracks with a very bad flue season. Covid 19 its a serious but not extraordinarily more dangerous virus than others and needs to be taken seriously, but over reaction is as dangerous as under. Managing a health crisis is what good government us supposed to do.The applied cure will turn out to be worse than the covid illness. The biggest damage is to confidence and a permanent change in social psychology which will render a depression due to collapse of trust at all levels. Morality and self reliance by necessity will reassert as core community values. The world will regard China a a pariah state for its initial handling of this preventable pandemic. China has been the perpetual origin of most influenza due to feudal and poor animal husbandry practices. Nationalism will be the new globalism and billionaires will be outlawed through taxation.
#7 trailor_sailor on 03.29.20 at 12:27 pm
“The infection rate nationally, thus far, is 0.015%. Three weeks ago the federal health minister said it could be between 30% and 70%. That is two thousand times the current level. Thus, it’s hard to know where truth lies. Does an overwhelming deluge lie ahead? Or was shutting down the entire economy, idling millions, an error?”
The infection rate is 0.015% nationally BECAUSE we shut down the entire economy.
Don’t want to live like N. Italy? Like your elders? Stay home.
————————————————
Hear, hear. Weighing our current state against the counterfactual state when the counterfactual is outside our experience is something humans fail miserably at (cf society failing miserably at reining in climate change). In this case, the current state is guided by science and asks us to isolate and thus slow the spread of disease. Luckily, we have a pretty good understanding that if we do this well we get what was seen in China or S. Korea and apparently now in Canada. A low infection rate, less burdened healthcare and relatively few deaths.
The counterfactual (meaning counter to the fact of our current state/path not meaning fake-news) can only be modeled and that modelling is guided by science that, like all science, is imperfect although often surprisingly accurate. If we took no measures then we would very likely experience infection unlike anything in our living experience as a nation/global population. Because it would be outside our experience, it’s very hard to grasp what it would actually mean. 30%-70% infected, sure. Exponential growth would get us there in a matter of weeks.
But what does that look like? what would it mean to us? Would that be worse than 25% unemployment? We have no experience to answer those questions so are left to fumble and speculate. It’s easy to speculate that maybe it would all go away magically, or maybe it was a false alarm and we wouldn’t lose 5%-15% of our seniors and a percent or two of everyone else. Maybe our precious portfolios wouldn’t have had to take the XX% haircut.
As mentioned before, it’s a catch 22. We take measures and get a crappy outcome. We don’t take measures and it’s very likely we get a really really crappy outcome. No one likes it when positive action still nets us pain. But sometimes that is what has to happen. Go to the dentist, get your vaccinations, get your physical exam, maintain your car, replace your roof, save your dollars for retirement etc. etc. None of these things are fun, but we do them because they lead to a better future.
Apocalypse preparation
Frog legs are a mostly-overlooked delicacy in Canada, although wildly popular in southern US states. Bullfrogs are the quarry. Luckily, these frogs have introduced themselves to temperate Canada everywhere and officially represent an invasive species.
To frog gig, you’ll need a flashlight with red lens, 12′ bamboo cane with 2-3′ fishing line, fishook and small length of red yarn.
After dark, move slowly along the water’s edge. Frog’s eyes will reflect light. Wave the yarn bait in front of the frog and it will invariably grab it. Continue until your bucket is full of frogs. Remove legs. Cook in hot pan with butter. Invite the neighbours.
This amazing protein source will be available through the summer.
#30 HH on 03.29.20 at 1:04 pm
Read some interesting news stories from Sweden, where attitude has been more relaxed, but infection and death rates are not too much worse than everywhere else yet (touch wood, fingers crossed…)
Apparently, their government’s main message was something like: “Hey, we are all adults. Let everyone just do the responsible adult thing, given circumstances.”
i.e. Government just issues some loose guidelines, rather than orders and decrees, and then relies on the common sense and responsibility of its citizens, rather than enforcement.
And interestingly enough, the effect so far is not as different as you might expect from places under strict lockdown with brutal enforcement.
Elders and sick are isolating and staying aloof anyway…
Office workers are all working remotely anyway…
People are keeping their distance anyway…
Not much in way of crowds and big gatherings anyway…
Businesses open, but with 1/10-th of normal attendance anyway…
All in all, necessary sensible behaviours and things that need doing mostly kind of get done. Only without government decrees and SWAT teams to enforce them.
***
So, blog dogs, I’d like you all to answer me this question.
Look around you… Look at the people on this blog…
… in your neighbourhood …
… in your workplace …
… in your social circle …
Listen to them. Look at those faces…
Then look deep into your heart and answer me this.
In times like these, do you trust your neighbours and countrymen to be as sensible as an average Swede and do the right, proper, responsible, sensible things without government ordering and cops enforcing?
Well… Do you?
———
No.
FYI Garth I do not know where you found your data and nor have I read today’s blog except for the first couple of lines. In BC alone we have had 17 deaths. Quebec 22. Plus I believe our stats are we have 52 people in the province on ventilators in ICUs. You’re incorrect facts is definitely and I mean definitely and tragically minimizing the situation.
There have been 61 deaths in Canada, as stated. – Garth
My deepest and sincerest apology. I read six deaths not 60 deaths. Now everything makes sense. Thank you and have a fabulous Sunday.
Thank you for airing the concerns of a cross section of your readers/respondents. In times like these we need to hear real stories of people’s experience so that us isolated actually know what’s going on in the world.
38 T-Rev on 03.29.20 at 1:19 pm
How many times does it have to be said?
It’s not the virus, but the fear it creates.
This virus is unique. It is mild for many, but severe for a large segment of others. It seems to be a roll of the dice. Also, Mortality is only one factor, and it’s very high for some individuals. Transmissibility (high), incubation period (long), side effects (pronounced) are other factors that need to be taken into account when you discuss the potential impact on human health.
It’s a sneaky virus. It exploiting our globalized world’s weakness: the free flow of people, and is recking the economy attached to it.
If the government mandated shut down was rescinded today, the fear would persist. It’s going to persist for a while, months maybe a year. There is no real option right now.
MF
I wonder what is going to happens with some provinces and states that are borderline bankrupt. New Jersey, Illinois, Ontario, Alberta, etc etc. This shock to the financial system may be the tipping point for Illinois for example to default on exorbitant pension payments.
There will be a reset of all things financial, with pension payments/benefits being first. Real estate values will be second.
9 Attrition on 03.29.20 at 1
Unbelievable.
Please tell me you are not a doctor. Please?
MF
#57 Stone on 03.29.20 at 2:28 pm
As I write this, the link below from Reuters indicates 99,303 individuals have either recovered (70,791 or 71%) or have died (28,513 or 29%) from the virus.
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html
For all of you advocating herd immunity, please step forward.
For 29% of you, your sacrifice will be remembered.
———
Forgot to add the caveat. Not including the data out of China, only data fro overseas. After all, data from China is 100% fake news.
Actually your link shows a 4% death rate, not 29%. Slight difference. – Garth
The conspiracy theorist in me is saying this is either the biggest over-reaction in human history……or we’re not being told something.
I think medical professionals and epidemiologists are the only ones that should make a prognosis regarding the effectiveness of pandemic mitigation measures… financial advisors can stick to giving us advice in which they’re an expert.
Don’t you think Canada has so few cases of COVID-19 PRECISELY because of the drastic measures taken?
I have no idea, not have I offered an opinion. The post merely stated today’s facts. – Garth
#42 SoggyShorts
I sincerely hope there is an official deadbeat database in the works so that landlords can avoid you and your ilk.
——————————————–
A wonderful idea in principle but it would end up like a no-fly list. Some innocent individuals are likely to end up on such a list because of rumor, mistaken identity, spite or just sloppy reporting. The chance of such persons being removed from the list would be zero.
Just like your portfolio doesn’t compound unabated, neither does a virus. It doesn’t follow a simple logarithmic function unless all of us are stuffed into a giant room together 24-7. Ever have a member of your house hold get sick and you don’t?
A virus works in fits and starts, infects a population, then subsides, starts in another, dies out in another etc. Eventually it runs out of people to infect in a given area and then becomes a bell curve and declines.
No wonder people cant find $200 in savings a month. They have no concept of real life mathematics.
They’re worried if the virus getting out of control like it did in Italy and now Spain. A lock down is necessarily for the fragile Canadian healthcare system to slow the cases. Since it’s so catchy, anywhere with a high enough population to have it’s own hospital would be overwhelmed with cases.
Today 5,600 people have the virus in our nation. Over 4,900 (or 98%) of the cases are mild. Across Canada 120 victims are hospitalized, serious. Sixty have died. Bless them and their families.
——————————–
While this lockdown cannot continue forever, the number of cases is low because of the extreme measures taken by governments around the world.
Many people in Canada do not have 2 – 3 weeks paid leave available to recover from COVID19. In the US being in the hospital or at home that long, could bankrupt a family. Slowing the spread will help the economy recover faster once the lockdown is lifted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr2GnZo2KiA
Policymakers need to figure out how they will track all of the cases in the country and track people who enter the country (e.g. tourists, international students, business associates) when the borders open up again.
The various provinces should probably work on fixing the backlog of testing, Germany conducts roughly 500,000 tests a week. Increasing testing as well as testing people with mild symptoms would help reduce community spread of the virus. Now that the border is closed finding all cases in Canada should be one of the mandates for Health Canada.
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-rush-to-develop-rapid-tests/a-52945588
Once the number of new cases starts to decrease and the border becomes open to a few countries with low active cases, Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) should use Abbott Labs portable 5-minute test machine to conduct tests on everyone entering Canada. This test should be mandatory for all people entering the country or leaving Canada as it would help decrease the spread of the virus and the burden the virus has on our health care system and economy.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-game-changer-fda-authorizes-abbott-labs-portable-5-minute-coronavirus-test-the-size-of-a-toaster/ar-BB11PVCI
The infection rate nationally, thus far, is 0.015%
************************
LAUGHABLE. Several members of the coworkers family came with the symptoms, after an XRay two days later one of the sons was tested for COVID19.
THEY ARE WAITING FOR THE RESULTS FOR THE LAST 11 DAYS.
Americans ramped up the testing and we see the picture. Assuming that Toronto or Vancouver are any different from NY – is a joke. Less travel? Fewer people that been to Europe, Asia or Iran? We do not test and when we do test results are lagging now by weeks. Why would one expect different from Canadian healthcare system?
#14 not 1st on 03.29.20 at 12:37 pm
Why did Trump have to highlight this drug and not the FDA talking head or the big pharma clowns?
**********************************
FDA did approve the use of drug for severe cases of COVID19 based on several small studies from France, S. Korea and China. Bigger population samples are needed over lnger period of time for FDA to say this drug is cleared for the desease, instead it is right now allowing the use on compassionate ground (much shorter approval time).
Trump mentioned it AFTER the FDA announcement
#3 Bud on 03.29.20 at 12:18 pm
Garth,
I am contemplating taking out a $50k loan, to invest in the stock market seeing as we just had that correction that comes every ten years. My thinking is now would be a great time to buy 100% equity ETF in hopes of catching the upward trend that is coming in the next year. Am I sane? My wife and I are 35, have a $500k net worth and make $250k/year so a $50k loan is manageable.
===============================
You’re not being insane, you’re being greedy.
Borrowing is giving money to the very people that got us into this mess in the first place
We need to stop borrowing money and feeding the beast
Why do you think the banks have all the biggest office towers in every downtown? It is because they lend, they don’t borrow
Starve them or they will starve you!
I think you may have stumbled into the wrong site. – Garth
Everything else GREAT Garth but this:
“The infection rate nationally, thus far, is 0.015%.”
SMUG Canadians weeks from peak still think that their rarified air is going to save them BECAUSE they’re just SO MUCH BETTER than everyone else in the World.
Talk to me at peak.
Oh but silly me, look at Canada (nowhere near peak) SO SPECIAL compared to everyone else (Netherlands ahead of Canada…what Canada will look like soon enough & others about the same timing as Canada):
https://i.imgur.com/NYWC3Vv.png
And THAT had to said. Sick of this superior, smug Canadian attitude you see on Social Media, TV, Newspapers. It will be your undoing.
Oh ya, and for all you “glimmer of hope”, “flattening curve” British Columbians, see glimmer of hope and flattening curve in right hand side chart (and send chart to CTV News Vancouver).
https://i.imgur.com/VskcA2V.png
How is stating a simple fact, without commentary, being “smug”? Maybe you, like us, should just wait and see what happens. Panic fixes nothing. – Garth
Canada should have shut borders from Asia February 1. This all could have been prevented but the west didn’t take it seriously. And yet there are still flights coming into YVR. Also people that left the country even mid march knew the risks. People still on a cruise ship. Seriously? I have no sympathy for Canadians “stuck” outside the country. Even CBC showed a retired couple in Mexico who were there since November. Really? Why is this news? People are dumb. There will be a price to pay once all is said and done.
#89 Gil
bingo
Hi #14 not 1st,
That’s a good question.
my first guess is $, then…
PS:
Italia does post-mortems on ALL cases, do you Canada?
They are VERY conservative, e.g.
90 year old in a traffic accident, strokes, then has a heart attack, is DOA at the hospital, they do a post-mortem, find that he was positive withe coronavirus (but showed no symptoms while stroking)…
Chalk one up for COVID.
That’s what I think of your 0.15% mortality rate.
Cdn. COVID porn is all that is.
The number I quoted was the infection rate, not the current mortality rate. It is vastly lower. Your commentary is welcome here, but try not to be so hectoring. – Garth
The infection rate nationally, thus far, is 0.015%. Three weeks ago the federal health minister said it could be between 30% and 70%. That is two thousand times the current level. Thus, it’s hard to know where truth lies. Does an overwhelming deluge lie ahead? Or was shutting down the entire economy, idling millions, an error? Perhaps we shall know that, come the autumn.
————————————
But we won’t know. Because if, I assume, these lockdown measures prevent such massive death tolls, many will say “see? it wasn’t necessary!”. Well how do you know that? One could argue counterfactuals all day but nobody can be certain.
Many new instances of young people dying from this are being reported. This is no longer your grandmother’s disease. Everyone is vulnerable.
People are getting hysterical. Walked down the street today with my spouse and a stranger yells out to walk 6 feet apart. Crazy. One thing is certain, our government and so called health “experts” have been trumping for years post-SARS that Canada was well prepared for the next pandemic. It is so obvious that poor planning and a lack of sense of urgency implementing these plans has been terribly co-ordinated. Zero excuse for the lack of much safety equipment, masks, ventilators, disaster recovery for assessment centers, testing etc. I often argue that Canadian politics is too concerned with what politicians think and believe, as opposed to what they can actually do.
16-year old girl in France just died tragically from Covid-19. No known underlying conditions. A perfectly healthy teenager cut down.
How many teenagers in the developed world die every year from the flu?
Garth, I agree with #9 NM, and since he won’t reply to your request for substantiation, I will try to step in.
Your numbers don’t consider the time dimension of this development. You take a slice of a multiplicative phenomenon and rune with that. I would say it’s quite myopic from someone versed in multiplicative (compounded) developments, like investments. This is the quintessential fat tail you base your discourse on.
It’s not the puny 10k of your current TFSA account you start with. It’s the prospect of its growth if habit is maintained over time.
This virus shows discipline.
I agree on the panic Garth, but then there is the truth that shall set you free.
Fine line between the 2.
And we are not panicking here after 21 bloody days of lockdown (i.e., Martial Law).
Italia tried to warn the rest of Europe, ignored and dismissed as you typical histrionic Italians.
And, look what happened to them.
Panic – Truth, a fine line.
I believe most of the issues with this epidemic is the media that thrives on sensationalizing the problem. In 1918 we had the Spanish Flu which came at the end of a world war and killed millions. What happened afterwards…the roaring 20’s. Stay invested.
Garth, you asked for stats/numbers.
(1) This is Johh Hopkins site that tracks worldwide numbers
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
(2) This doctor been posting daily updates to synthesis numbers for Canada. We are tracking Italy, about about 2 weeks behind them. That is a fantastic opportunity for us to avoid their fate if we learn from their mistakes.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQ3y1ePHxHijZscdVtwK0RA
(3) Things are growing exponentially, so don’t let today’s numbers fool you into a sense of complacency.
Having a frank discussion whereby society says let the elderly and unlucky die is perfectly fair commentary. Trump said the cure has to be less expensive than the disease. Also fair. But let’s not sugar coat it.
You’re either for herd immunity (and large numbers of death) or you’re for flattening the curve. That’s okay…
But PLEASE, don’t think we can lift social distancing and say everyone is over-reacting to today’s number. Learn from other countries. We’ve been blessed to see the future, so let’s learn from them.
I said nothing about easing social distancing. The numbers will speak for themselves. – Garth
The Coronavirus has shown that the capitalist system is not working. We should cheer from our locked doors that house prices are collapsing and AirBnB condos are banned in Toronto. Greedy speculators don’t pay taxes.
Hi #21 dubble
I can not thank you enough for working to help other people and being part of the solution for us all. Best wishes to you and your family, and everyone that is helping!
I’ve heard it said the best time to start a business is in the pit of a depression. The bottom of the business cycle.
1. Labor is cheap and desperate. Some very talented people are out of work and willing to work cheap.
2. Credit is hard to come by so new competitors will not be starting up like they would at the peak of the cycle when banks are shoving money down your throat.
3. Current competitors will be suffering the burden of legacy debt and legacy wages so it will be easier to underprice them with no debt and cheap labor
4. Even liberal governments will smile upon you
5. The economy will grind along at worst but over the long term should be up.
The risk/reward of starting a business at the bottom of the cycle is huge assuming you can properly capitalize it. Survive that and you can survive much
If one wants to clear an isle quickly just pull out a kleenex and wipe your nose; kid you not, it happened to me. My nose always runs this time of year due to allergies;especially as the snow melts. It was good for me, but just goes to show how fear there is out there!
#98 Oracle of Ottawa on 03.29.20 at 3:22 pm
I believe most of the issues with this epidemic is the media that thrives on sensationalizing the problem. In 1918 we had the Spanish Flu which came at the end of a world war and killed millions. What happened afterwards…the roaring 20’s.
—
… which ended in 1929. What happened afterwards? The Great Depression.
What does your crystal ball say about this option?
One of the biggest mistakes being made by the investment community is to focus only on first order effects from the CV-19 crisis (immediate loss of income, lower productivity, loss of quarterly GDP, etc). However, second order effects will be far more important. For example, in the US, the bailout package passed by Congress will significantly hinder future stock buybacks by Company’s receiving financial assistance from the government. If one looks at the rocket fuel that pushed the stock market into the stratosphere during the Trump administration, it was disproportionately from companies buying back stock, using borrowed money. Indeed, funds flow data from the last couple of years showed that retail investors, and even pension funds, actually sold equity, but this was overshadowed by stock buybacks. With this money removed from the market, it is very difficult to see how the S&P can return to its lofty highs anytime soon even if CV-19 is quickly controlled.
Furthermore, global supply chains will now be strained and “globalism” will be a casualty of CV-19. Already, in the EU, the Schengen treaty is rapidly collapsing, with countries like Italy and Spain recognizing that the EU did little to help it in its time of need (and Germany and Belgium, among many others, closing borders). And the reliance on Chinese factories to make everything from N95 masks to tools will rapidly reverse, which will impact everything from global energy markets to the US dollar.
Finally, we will be entering a period of social unrest, which will extend from Iran to France and the US. Gun sales are off the charts in the US over the last couple of weeks, where customers now wait in line for hours to buy ammo. In France, Macron has already directed that the police not enforce the quarantine in areas with significant migrant populations due to concerns of mass rioting. And in Iran, the state looks like it is ready to collapse, with a little help from escalating US sanctions and the Saudi’s oil price war.
Nothing will quite be the same after this crisis is resolved. Investment returns will be more modest, as will be living standards (particularly if you are a surgeon in Ontario).
Hello Garth et al. Speaking of public servants (and public service) in general, I just read a book that advocates limiting public service to 8 years in a lifetime for most of professions. This is the link to the book https://tinyurl.com/swyxyu2 on eBay, but unfortunately for you it is in Serbian. The author claims that there is English version coming out in a few weeks. What I could do is wait for the English version to be published and I will buy one and send it to you as a gift…
There needs to be a future bylaw for grocery & pharma store aisles. They aren’t wide enough. Folks are still passing down too close together. If you qualify as a grocery or pharmacy outlet there should be a minimal legal distance between the aisles.
You make $250k per year, a net worth of $500k and have room in your TFSA? You want to know if now is the time to invest with leverage? No.
Folks need to realize what this is. Most of the world is affected now. It’s a MIND Virus. A majority are affected. They are totally breaking down and getting sick, their minds that is. Paranoia, social distortion, even violence.
Physical illness? I get the flu and cold every year.
It strikes my co workers badly too. Every year we’re out many day.
(We are told even with this variant most get mild cases.
No one wants to hear that though. They are addicted to the doom. Instant scoreboard. Replaces sports you know.)
– The economy. This is not knew what’s going on.
Look up the books The Shock Doctrine – Naomi Klein.
They shocked the markets, interest rates and oil prices, and the employment market, all at once. This is warfare. Silent weaponry.
– The Book: Confessions of An Economic Hitman. I get its it gist, have not read it.
A solution that would start with allowing most of the population to become infected is no solution at all. Unless we want to bring out our own dead and bury them in mass graves. There is no way the system could handle the number that would die with unrestricted transmission.
As it is, what is about to transpire in the developing world is going to be awful. If anyone can’t see that, they are blind. We are still in the early innings of this game. Nobody should be sure of the next couple of months.
“I pray we know what we’re doing.”
Keep praying. ‘We’ don’t.
Pt. 2, February: Trudeau and federal officials argue border controls might stigmatize some Canadians and upset China
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/the-road-to-canadas-covid-19-outbreak-pt-2-timeline-of-federal-government-failure-at-border-to-slow-the-virus-2/
If you don’t have savings and you make a higher than average salary, you did yourself wrong.
10 years ago, I was $32K in debt. Now I have $60K (after this downturn) in investments and debt free. I have had an average income of ~$45K in those years.
You make the choices on the money you spend. Blaming the rich or society is a cop out.
So Dr. Fauci predicts 100-200k deaths will occur in the U.S. for the duration of this virus.
That works out to a fatality rate (assume 150k perish) of 0.045% of the U.S. population. i.e. approximately 1 in every 2,250 will perish.
If our economy collapses the sucide/murder rate will be far higher.
What to do?
You decide…
P.S. There are now several drugs proving to be very effective in saving lives.
I don’t like where this could be headed.
https://time.com/5812113/new-jersey-police-coronavirus/
700 Police Officers have tested positive in the last two days.
Mafia are already rampaging in Italy. If law enforcement gets shackled anywhere, there could be bigger social problems. Hopefully this is the peak.
#84 SquareNinja on 03.29.20 at 2:34 pm
Don’t you think Canada has so few cases of COVID-19 PRECISELY because of the drastic measures taken?
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Huh?? A week before the WHO declared a pandemic, Canada was doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to prevent it from spreading here. No airport screening, no travel bans, just concerns about ‘racism’ and how they were listening to ‘the science’. Read my previous post.
And I’d saying the same if it was a Con/NDP/Green government.
49 Vicguy on 03.29.20 at 1:35 pm
5600 is tested cases. We’ve stopped testing people with symptoms that can self isolate (and they would get tested if they needed to go to a hospital). The real numbers are much higher.
—-
You are completely full of it Vicguy;
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19.html
COVID-19 in Canada
March 29, 2020, 10 am EDT
Number of people tested 205,097
Confirmed cases 5,652
Probable cases 3
Deaths 61
Go to Public Health Canada, CDC and WHO and use your own brain. Follow the health guidelines out there right now (always during cold and flu season you animals). Stay off social media and listening to knuckleheads like this Vicguy.
Take the Diamond Princess as a decent petri dish of this virus. ~3500 passengers, ~700 contracted covid-19, ~1.1% died.. also the ones that died didn’t receive adequate medical attention.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w
40,000 Canadians contracted the flu this year, on average 3500 die.. if this was in the news, they would tell you 16-20/day died of the flu in Canada. (Flu season is September to April). And you would never leave the house again…
https://ipac-canada.org/influenza-resources.php
Just finished watching this HIGHLY RECOMMENDED video re: “CoronaVirus”:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=emb_title&time_continue=2782&v=hsWY5NMuCPg
Pretty much lays out we are being scammed.
Various MD’s in Germany expose how stats are being manipulated, and one gets the feeling there is ZERO needs for panic.
It appears EU Gov’ts are in Fear Porn mode, almost desperate to label any/all illnesses as COVID 19.
The end of the video bluntly states the agenda….Italy and Spain…with the “highest death tolls”, are near bankruptcy..so the end game is for the EU to bail them out, which of course makes things worse for rest of EU…aka this is just a toilet flu$$h.
MD’s are big forced ..via legal liability..to “treat” patients which may in fact be killing them.
In Italy…they appear desperate and thus skewing the numbers. 99% of the COVID 19 deaths had at least one underlying health condition. This part of Italy also has some of THE worst air quality in EU. Average age of deceased is almost 80. In other words..vast majority of the dead were near death already.
Time to peel back the curtain…the wizard is done !!!
My sister and her husband are recuperating from something. She is suspicious that it is the coronavirus because their symptoms are identical to those who have tested positive. They have not been tested. She says this is nothing like she has ever experienced before. She says the coughing is just awful. She told me on March 13 that she now had Allan’s cold. She may have had it five days before that since it takes a few days for symptoms to appear. Her husband had it ten days before that. So, they have been stuck at home, although, that’s not so bad. They live on a ranch. Lots of space to get out and not be up against anyone. She does not want me to come out to their place until they are completely over it. Of course, I will comply. I have not been venturing out too far anyway. I will have to reschedule my dental appointments. This is unnerving.
@67 Fred
“Hey Langley dude
I’m a 45 year old millionaire because I have been digging ditches since I’m 13 , if it took you 10 years to accumulate 25k I suggest exploring the gig economy part time, I hear amazon has a lot of openings .”
Thanks for writing this. I applaud you for getting out there and making your own luck.
Hopefully Langley dude and all of the “you owe me” people who read here read your words and maybe see just what is happening if you put your mind to it.
BTW – the Loblaw’s down the street is hiring; I’d bet the grocery stores in Langley are also looking for people.
A link for those who wish to follow the Swedish experience. Their numbers are higher than ours in Canada, and their population is ~10 million. I couldn’t find numbers on their hospital operating capacity, but they have a similar amount of bed space per capita.
Canada’s big problem is hospital beds per capita and our usual operating capacity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
For Dorothy: The Price of Illusion, by Joan Juliet Buck. A wonderful read. I like paper books, too. Good for the beach and no battery to wear down if you accidentally fall asleep on one after an afternoon martini.
For Billy Bob: Hate me for saying it, but larceny is hardly breaking news in morally bankrupt B.C. John Horgan had to ban the sale of secondary goods as a “Shameful Black Market”, did he not? Hearing your report of medical supplies being stolen is like that old line from the film Casablanca where Captain Louis Renault expresses shock there is “gambling going on in here!”. It’s the mentality. Vancouver ransacked and burned their city when they lost a hockey game. Enough said.
When this crisis fades to black it will be interesting to review the statistics. For example, why significantly higher numbers of positive Covid cases in certain areas. Quebec/Montreal aside, for example Alberta has 621, with 378 in Calgary and 139 in Edmonton despite very similar sized populations. The chief medical officer was asked about this and replied it could be related to more international travel by Calgarians versus Edmontonians. This doesn’t really compute. While flights are landing in Calgary, the reporting would still be out of Edmonton for their residents.
I like the blog photo today. What a charming little street. Bet there is more than one book store selling real books.
I am in 100% agreement with this statement. FEAR is the contagion. Quarantine is the safest way to stop the virus as well as all other ailments – flu car accidents work.injuries etc.
But the economic and social costs far outlay the benefits. Billions spent now that will not be funneled to healthcare in the future. A possible 15% unemployment rate for years to come. Think of the health effects of this. Poverty is never good for your health. Retirements delayed.. Reps wiped out, no school for some kids to help move up ladder. Homelessness. All of this will begin to show its.head after virus drifts away.
And what to do if virus comes back which is a distinct possibility. Do we shut down everything again.
The world needs to take a deep breath and attack this problem with a sound plan that will protect people now and in the future.
This drug is now being used across care homes in BC with outbreaks as both a treatment and a prophylactic for residents. We should have some good local data soon. Of course the media won’t report it and will play down any success because Trump mentioned he thought the drug was promising.
The reason Trump had to highlight the drug is because the professionals use way too much caution and if they followed normal protocols it would take years just to get the first trials. We don’t have time for that. 100s of thousands of people will be dead and the world would be in a depression. It takes bold leadership to get this kind of thing done quickly.
Meanwhile our own PM is in hiding and using identity politics and consulting with China to make all health related decisions.
The CDCs own doc debunks the pandemic hysteria in this clip.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WK6NVQAwso&feature=emb_logo
Thank you for the financial education and the balanced perspective that you and your team provide! Your Covid 19 numbers are objective, balanced and relieving. They in no way minimize the current situation or the plight of those affected. Our thoughts and prayers are with you!
Last Sunday morning CBC news interviewed Dr. Richard Schabas who also provided an objective analysis. Although I do not have a copy of the interview, you can read his views and peruse his credentials at the following link:
https://torontoism.com/toronto-news/2020/03/corona-virus-another-pragmatic-and-cogent-view
I let out a sigh of relief at the time, not only because of the views expressed, but I was pleased to see CBC reporting instead of sensationalizing and frightening the public. This brief moment of elation quickly morphed into disappointment, as CBC quickly retracted his interview and apologized due to public outrage on social media.
I am growing tired of censorship and the shaming of any concept that challenges the status quo. The evisceration of our civil rights may become glaringly apparent when this subsides in the spring in a similar fashion to Sars. The aforementioned prediction is as valid as any of the extrapolations that the pundits are using now.
#82 Stone on 03.29.20 at 2:30 pm
#57 Stone on 03.29.20 at 2:28 pm
As I write this, the link below from Reuters indicates 99,303 individuals have either recovered (70,791 or 71%) or have died (28,513 or 29%) from the virus.
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html
For all of you advocating herd immunity, please step forward.
For 29% of you, your sacrifice will be remembered.
———
Forgot to add the caveat. Not including the data out of China, only data fro overseas. After all, data from China is 100% fake news.
Actually your link shows a 4% death rate, not 29%. Slight difference. – Garth
————————————
Neither is accurate and both versions of the death rate are likely high.
deaths/total outcomes would be accurate except testing is currently limited to the worst cases. So, our number of recovered is likely way way too low.
deaths/total cases isn’t accurate either because many of those total cases have an unknown outcome.
I think the better metric is some fraction of the %severe. Currently the severe rate is 5%. So, the death rate can’t be higher than that unless people are getting sick and not going to get care. Find the percentage of severe who die, multiply that by 5% and that’s your death rate more or less. Less than 1% in countries with capacity. More in countries that are overwhelmed.
Yes, I’m a pedant.
What virus? A friend of mine out here in the Lower Mainland can’t even get tested and she has numerous underlying issues. Meanwhile she stays in self imposed isolation.
Michael and Crazyfox… thank you for sharing the link from the Korean Doctor. It reinforces my thoughts as to how I can reduce my chances of getting the bug. I still have my supply of expired N95 masks from 2003. The only thing wrong with them that I can tell is that the rubber bands holding them to my face may have lost a bit of their elasticity. I have stored these in my basement at a constant temperature of 72 degrees Farenheit and they are still in the original plastic wrapper. I really think that those 50 million masks which the Ontario government has can probably be used anyway.
Also regarding the shortage of ventilators….I have read that CPAP and APAP machines could be used in a pinch if the firmware was rewritten. Any thoughts on this?
Yes, times are tough, different and for sure unusual.
That being said think of how many diseases and viruses have plagued our society over the millennia.
But to say” tax, rob or steal from the successful,to pay all those who have wasted , missed or are unlucky is quite frankly “ sick”.
It seems opportunity is often hidden behind hard work and thus missed by those same persons.
To the guy from Langley. You B.C. zombies stay on your own side of the mountains. Destroy the most beautiful part of the country but leave the rest of us alone. The next four provinces are ready for you. We have paintball guns and darts and all sorts of things to stop you from infecting Toronto.
#113 TurnerNation on 03.29.20 at 3:44 pm
Folks need to realize what this is. Most of the world is affected now. It’s a MIND Virus. A majority are affected. They are totally breaking down and getting sick, their minds that is. Paranoia, social distortion, even violence.
– The Book: Confessions of An Economic Hitman. I get its it gist, have not read it.
===========================
Your reference to Economic Hit Man is bang on.
The winners in all this will be the Banksters and Big Pharma.
As I’ve said to others….the Banksters did not dare to pull another bald – faced 2008 crisis. Different tactic, but same result.
The Dr. Evil plan is to manufacture a health scare…the boogey man is everywhere…(cue evil laughter bwahahahahaa)…
While we are in mortal fear the economy is again being raped and pillaged, but this time we blame something we can’t see that also can’t vote…and they again laugh all the way to the bank.
Stir and repeat at least once every decade.
Can we have that ‘Panic, despondent,…” graph back again?
After reading some of the people commenting here I’m beginning to think a large majority are losing it… over 61 dead?
And these are the people that can read and write…
What’ll it take to get the sheeple’s mind off the hyped media barrage?
Nuclear War with North Korea?
Is it even worth haranguing people about saving anymore? As the Globe & Mail pointed out, those of us who save are screwed over at every turn by governments dedicated to keeping the real estate/debt party going. Doesn’t matter what political stripe the government is. Savers get screwed, reckless spenders get bailed out.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-coronavirus-has-shown-us-we-were-living-in-an-economic-fairy-tale/
In Two days ( on April 1st ) an unprecedented event will occur. An organised rent strike against Landlords.
Corporations may withstand this offset but many Landlords are an extra condo or two; They do not qualify for Mortgage Deferral. Most are already NEGATIVE CASH subsidizing their tenant.
This will be an incredible shift in “Do We want to be landlords? ”
Harry Fine sets out the options here; https://landlord-law-ontario.blogspot.com/2020/03/with-10-days-to-go-we-need-april-1st.html
David Pylyp
Toronto
I pray we know what we’re doing. -Garth
Does it look like we know what we are doing?
Canada immobilized most of it’s people over COVID-19. It doesn’t really hit home until we try to access businesses that are closed. Then we shop for groceries and it hits us, we should all be wearing masks but can’t because the western world is facing shortage and media has gone through large lengths to tell us all masks are unnecessary even though its not true.
No one is taking temperatures at the doors anywhere, even though one of the first symptoms is fever. It’s not like businesses haven’t had time to buy temp guns, they didn’t get the memo from above or didn’t dial into what Asia was doing, with a belief that it wasn’t our problem, or didn’t want to pay someone to do it, or it would never come to this so no one is doing it. Still.
People are getting freaked out, and rightly so. Few of us have defenses against getting infected outside of buying hand wipes for ourselves where we can. There’s no GPS cel app helping us to know where infected cases are, no one is wearing masks, no one is being temp scanned at the doors of grocery stores… (in the face of evidence of aerosol spread under the right conditions, no less) when a government shuts down businesses and few of us have any kind of defense against a virus proven to grow exponentially elsewhere, how can people not get a little bit freaked out?
Governments world wide know they are behind with response (or in denial), testing is still piss poor in most of the world and enabling people to directly defend themselves against getting infected has been abysmal. What other choice when faced with the prospects of exponential growth and overrun hospitals, do governments now have? They are flying blind, with no idea how many are really infected and can’t run down chains of infection so what now, with community transmission, can governments do? Just… wait and see?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
If we look at the chart of total cases, we see that cases have grown 400+% since March 15th from 170,000 to 712,000. Will this kind of exponential growth happen again? Or, will we just chug away at average 65,000 cases a day into May 1st as a direct consequence of government responses world wide, with 2 million active cases, hoping for seasonality to bail the Northern hemisphere out of this mess we’ve made for ourselves.
This seems to be the plan now; hope for seasonality with a “novel” virus. If not, plan B is to follow the Asian example and do it right the first time and we are not ready for that. We don’t even have media messaging right for this. Right now, hope is our medium term plan. Now, does that seem like we know what we are doing to you?
Good post but if you’re going to calculate the infection rate you should use real numbers. Here in Ottawa at least they are heavily rationing tests. Our own public health chief estimates that actually infections are many orders of magnitude higher than reported. For a while West Virginia has zero cases. That’s cause they were not testing. Throwing out percentages of infected population are meaningless when the data is crap. Do we really think we are different than the US, UK, Italy or Germany. I personally find it laughable that people think this won’t be worse than ‘08. That was a bank problem which seems like an easy fix. This is something different and inherently uncertain. Nobody knows how it will work out but given how ridiculously unprepared our healthcare system was for this given the months of heads up on this. I’m not as optimistic as your outlook. It’s never different this time the blog goes. Until it is.
Looking back waaay back in history there were behaviour changing events. I’m starting to think this more likely be one of them.
I am going to take a wild guess that it is more than 1.
How many die of opioids? 46,802 mostly younger people in the US in 2018.
Another book for Dorothy
“Drunk in China” by Derek Sandhous
Hilariously funny. Follows the exploits of an American attempting to drink the national drink of China….. “Baijiu”
Which, depending on the area of China one is in …may taste like prison hooch, French wine, schnapps, Moonshine, gasoline, perfume, cinnamon flavoured urine…….or a combination of all of the above
In NO way am I saying that this not serious but we also need to be realistic about this. In 2018; over 8500 Canadians died from influenza.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310039401
Winter seasons in Italy (2013/14) and (2016/17) over 68,000 deaths in Italy from the flu; 9% rate affecting mostly the elderly.
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext
I remember the last pandemic had two names at first called Acute Respiratory Syndrome and soon became
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, SARS no one liked the initial acronym.
The virus will engulf us all if we let it. Don’t let the opening sentences of this column lull you into thinking that this is a blip. That’s what Trumpoffski tried to broadcast.
Corona Cat Fight.
Bowinn for the win…
M45BC
Former B.C Premier Cristy Clark.
“This COVID response money MUST be spent-to save lives and jobs.Sad though that fed/prov govts blew the doors off on spending in the good years. Now, every single dollar spent will be debt for our kids to pay.”
Sitting NDP MLA Bowinn Ma.
“Your ” good years” left 91% of long-term seniors care homes desperately understaffed despite wages so low that care aides had to work multiple facilities to make ends meet, creating conditions that have seriously exasperated covid19 in B.C. Sit down.”
So as not to minimize the effect of COVID and acknowledge the effects in areas like Italy where 1000 people die per day and loved ones go into hospital and not come out with prob little to no funeral is devastating. There’s also lawlessness now. Let’s hope NYC isn’t next. Per Johns Hopkins Italy has an 11% death rate (11,000 incl 7 MDs) and NYC currently 2% DR. Reports now say 40% of cases below age 60. Increasing in USA by 65K cases per day (of those tested so all figures are said to prob be higher). We have friends in US incl NYC so they have my support and sympathy.
Today 5,600 people have the virus….
You do not know that because there is no enough tests kits so people do not get tested. Same with face masks.
Same wit a trust fund holder who prolong his self isolation despite that his wife and kids and him a healthy.
Every day orange dude is attacked by canadian media which paid by government have nothing bad to say about Turdeau
Pretty tough being a police officer in an outbreak area. Almost impossible to arrest someone and be protected. Imagine if the police acted like Service Canada union workers. Sorry off the job except for answering the phone. Jails shutdown. No arresting people.
Covid-19 likely “escaped” from BSL-4 WIV lab in Wuhan, where they have been hybridizing SARS and Coronavirus into HeLa and trying to create human infections.
Likely lab person got it, left, went to market a few times to get food, The rest is history.
Just like SARS “escaped” 4 times out of Beijing BSL-3 lab.
Scientific community was concerned about China rushing into BSL-4 due to history of ”escapes”.
China will be called upon to pay the bill for all this if this is found to be true. Trump/US is investigating since Feb.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology
Turns out lab “escapes” are frequent and source of nearly all recent pandemics.
https://nationalpost.com/news/a-brief-terrifying-history-of-viruses-escaping-from-labs-70s-chinese-pandemic-was-a-lab-mistake
#9 nm on 03.29.20 at 12:29 pm
You continue to minimize the virus in every post. It’s unfortunate and dumb.
Please correct the stats quoted, if incorrect. – Garth
—————//////——————————————-////////—
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html
Better Canada numbers.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
And this for global figures.
Serious cases appear to be running around a 20% rate world-wide.
Remember, new cases are counted before they are “completed” (i.e. recovered vs dead) and you can’t simply calculate the death rate as total deaths/total cases as this will falsely lower the death rate.
My take— don’t panic but do take this seriously.
BC Doc (frontline healthcare worker)
The comments reflect that there are still hyper concerned individuals. How many of them are selling? I suspect none. They have chosen to hunker down. I’m ok with that. Stink bids will capture the unconvinced. Sadly there must be some more desperate people willing or margined that are forced to capitulate. The shaking has not stopped.
Side note: haven’t heard too many “ i musta had it” sentiments yet. I had that moment with the listeria bug, not to diminish the situation at hand. I wasn’t counted then, how much is unaccounted now?
“Today 5,600 people have the virus in our nation. Over 4,900 (or 98%) of the cases are mild.”
The percentage is correct according to worldometers (link below) but they put it at 120 serious or critical cases, not the 700 inferred from the blog post numbers. Though, looking at closed cases (recovered or death), doesn’t paint as nearly a rosy picture.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/
More people die from smoking- Garth.
Garth, is smoking contagious?
Second-hand smoke kills. No government has outlawed smoking, with its 45,000 annual deaths in Canada. Why? – Garth
#127 BS on 03.29.20 at 4:01 pm
This drug is now being used across care homes in BC with outbreaks as both a treatment and a prophylactic for residents. We should have some good local data soon. Of course the media won’t report it and will play down any success because Trump mentioned he thought the drug was promising.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
It’s a good thing your handle conveys the most pertinent information in your posts. Hydroxychloroquine is being studied in a world-wide clinical trial, including 1 LTC facility in North Vancouver.
It has not been proven to treat or cure Covid 19 as yet. All previous studies of its efficacy have been very small, and none are peer-reviewed.
The fact that it is being trialed speaks more to the general paucity of knowledge in treating this novel virus than any hope for success. Most of BC’s deaths are still from this facility.
I know it’s hard to believe, but it has nothing to do with your Dear Leader.
#99 Howard on 03.29.20 at 3:21 pm
How many teenagers in the developed world die every year from the flu?
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https://lmgtfy.com/?q=how+many+teens+die+each+year+from+the+flu&iie=1
#106 Not So New guy on 03.29.20 at 3:32 pm
I’ve heard it said the best time to start a business is in the pit of a depression. The bottom of the business cycle.
1. Labor is cheap and desperate. Some very talented people are out of work and willing to work cheap.
2. Credit is hard to come by so new competitors will not be starting up like they would at the peak of the cycle when banks are shoving money down your throat.
3. Current competitors will be suffering the burden of legacy debt and legacy wages so it will be easier to underprice them with no debt and cheap labor
4. Even liberal governments will smile upon you
5. The economy will grind along at worst but over the long term should be up.
The risk/reward of starting a business at the bottom of the cycle is huge assuming you can properly capitalize it. Survive that and you can survive much
//////////////
don’t forget the $40,000 interest free loan from Government and up to $10,000 of that is forgivable
Yes in related new Trudeau blames Harper for sending all the N95 masks ot Chain in February 2020.
The NDP have been in power for 3 years now in BC. It is on them now.
Even more disgraceful is the current lack of N95 masks for nurses and other health care workers. A go fund me is being done to buy nurses masks in a care home with a massive outbreak. The NDP have failed miserably in the care homes here in BC.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/nurses-lynn-valley-care-home
Scary times! The population got themselves into this fix by spending more than they make and not ever considering saving one cent for the future. Sadly the govt did exactly the same thing. What is supposed to happen when the “welfare checks stop as they will surely have to. When people can’t buy food, this shit gets real!
#76 Fortunate One on 03.29.20 at 2:12 pm
FYI Garth I do not know where you found your data and nor have I read today’s blog except for the first couple of lines. In BC alone we have had 17 deaths. Quebec 22. Plus I believe our stats are we have 52 people in the province on ventilators in ICUs. You’re incorrect facts is definitely and I mean definitely and tragically minimizing the situation.
There have been 61 deaths in Canada, as stated. – Garth
*********************************
Garth is correct. Don’t fall for the sensationalism of this. In the entire country there is only 120 people with the virus in the ICU. The number currently infected in Canada is 5,709. That is 2%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/
In Canada, on average 150 people die per month in road accidents and 4 times that number are seriously injured (stats from 2017).
https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/motorvehiclesafety/canadian-motor-vehicle-traffic-collision-statistics-2017.html
So far this month 61 persons have died due to Covid-19.
Since there is almost no car traffic, expect to have less fatalities on the roads. Maybe some people will die because their needs are not being addressed by the medical field but how can we know at this point if we are really living in a doomed period?
We have to beat this virus but not avoid living.
The stats do not represent the true infection rate as testing capacity is limited. The stats only represent confirmed cases.
We have no idea what the real infection rate is but it must be significantly higher. It’s way too early to tell how this will play out. All I know is that I’ve been furloughed by my huge international corporation of an employer and my self employed spouse has been forbidden to work indefinitely. It’s difficult to be optimistic right now…
Look at all these PLANES!
https://www.flightradar24.com/36.31,-95.06/3
Covid-19 hitching rides like cray cray!
Meanwhile…6 feet or else! No playgrounds kids!
In the little world I inhabit on Vancouver Island we are seeing very good compliance with social distancing. People take it seriously and are, for the most part, staying at home. The stores that are open are working hard at social distancing.
In BC overall there are signs that SD is working. We were seeing a 24% day over day increase in the number of diagnosed cases, since SD really began to bite that number has dropped to 12% https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/COVID19_Technical_Briefing_Condensed.pdf.
I suspect we are going to have to maintain this right through April and on into May. Which means that much of the economy is shut down. I don’t think the markets will like that one bit and there is a good chance of further loses.
The Feds helicopter money, if they can manage to get it out the door, should keep things calm at the consumer level. But waves of small business bankruptcies are all but inevitable
I never get the housing market right but can anyone really think that a transient 30% unemployment rate and a long period of fear and uncertainty will boost sales? (Amusingly, on Craigslist I see former AIRBNB spaces being advertised as self-isolation suites complete with groceries to your door.)
We’ll get through this but the effects will last a couple of years.
If you convert the growth graph in the lower right hand corner of the Johns Hopkins data to logarithmic, the implication is there’s a second round of infections on its way:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
It doesn’t look as bad as the first round, and the daily infection increase statistics bear this out. But don’t forget that the first round is still in full flight with significant mortality yet to come. That mortality will be higher in regions with uncoordinated health care and obese populations (…USA, to a lesser extent Italy).
I think what people comparing this to the flu don’t understand is that this is in addition to the flu and, combined, serves to overwhelm health infrastructure. The more we can do to lessen that, the better.
Medium-term economic consequences? To be determined, but likely a tipping point for over-leveraged households and a prolonged recession, at least in Canada.
#132 Caledondave on 03.29.20 at 4:09 pm The fan/blower would have a limiting capacity, but other than that, ya in a pinch maybe those companies should be order to do so as opposed to gm. Which outfit you you like to do that?
Today 5,600 people have the virus….
You do not know that because there is no enough tests kits so people do not get tested. Same with face masks.
Same wit a trust fund holder who prolong his self isolation despite that his wife and kids and him a healthy.
Every day orange dude is attacked by canadian media which paid by government have nothing bad to say about Turdeau
**********************************
Over 170,000 Canadians suspected of having Covid-19 have been tested and there has been 6,280 positive tests.
The thing that more testing will make obvious is that there are a lot more people who are simply carriers or have mild symptoms that will only make the actual death rate lower.
Canada will be closer to the German experience than the Italian one.
The 1919 influenza killed 50 million people, more deaths than in WWI. I think it’s important not to underestimate the power of COVID-19. Look at the staggering numbers of daily deaths in Italy and Spain. Unless we all stay home for a few weeks, we have seen only the opening salvo of COVID-19 in Canada.
This will most likely not get posted which usually happens if i do not agree with the context..but here i go for the last time…a serious wake up call is coming for a lot of people when this Pandemic starts affecting your own personal lives and loved ones as it has mine..amen
“It is societies fault (driven by the rich) that the system is rigged so that people have to live paycheque to paycheque. Hopefully this will cause a massive reorganization of society where we go after all the rich who have the money, multiple properties, etc, and redistribute it to the people. Universal basic income, and taxing all investments and other vehicles that the rich use to make money for no actual work would be a great start.”
Yep! Skin the rich! That’s what the communist party did in my home country and – who could have guessed? – things didn’t end up as well as they thought they would. It looks like the rich didn’t after all have enough money to sustain a failing ideology and a failing economy for more than 20 or 30 years. And when “the people” got sick and tired of all the equality and equity and redistribution they gave the communists a kick in the behind. Now there are some rich people again in Romania, and nobody complains about them. Because people still remember what things used to be like during the equality and equity years.
While the revolutionary idiot who wrote that post has no idea what he’s talking about. Should go to live in North Korea for a while and then preach revolution.
Second-hand smoke kills. No government has outlawed smoking, with its 45,000 annual deaths in Canada. Why? – Garth
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
For the same reason alcohol, a known carcinogen and lubricant for untold violence, sexual assault, and road carnage, is pushed by governments everywhere – taxes, taxes, taxes.
Sunday, March 29th, 2020. Today 5,600 people have the virus in our nation. Over 4,900 (or 98%) of the cases are mild.
The infection rate nationally, thus far, is 0.015%
Finally someone reporting accurate numbers thx for this
Canada’s chief public health officer Theresa Tam says 205,000 tests for COVID-19 have been conducted in the country, and about three per cent of them have been positive.
She also says the number of people with the disease requiring hospitalization remains around six per cent, with two per cent in critical care and one per cent of cases fatal.
–required hospitalization 6%
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/03/29/ontarios-public-health-units-report-1439-cases-of-covid-19-cruise-ship-zaandam-can-transit-panama-canal.html
Practicing self-isolation in BC while getting a few logging trucks painted…if it wasn’t for my crappy internet connection and a few texts from the wife I’d be out of the flow. Really appreciating this social distancing thingie, other than having to drive 11 km to buy smokes…that sux!
Apparently It will be socially responsible of me to practice more self-isolation upon return to AB, so at least the cats will be getting fed on time! Might drive the wife nuts, tho…
Few things I’ve learned over this working weekend:
Hard work may have never killed anyone, but around here I’m taking no chances.
Be vigilant…
Stay safe…
Trust no one…
Believe nothing…
And fer chrissakes, don’t get paranoid!
#134 Decent Majority on 03.29.20 at 4:12 pm
To the guy from Langley. You B.C. zombies stay on your own side of the mountains. Destroy the most beautiful part of the country but leave the rest of us alone. The next four provinces are ready for you. We have paintball guns and darts and all sorts of things to stop you from infecting Toronto.
*****************
You and your ilk better stay clear of BC. We have stationed CrowdedElvatorFartz on the top of the Rockies Range and you are down wind. He is stocked with beans, beef, chili peppers and hot sauces from around the world.
You feeling lucky… Punk!
Just in for Canada:
6,243 Confirmed, 64 deaths, 1% mortality rate.
What I was trying tell you Garth and Canadians that in 1 day it changes.
People get all happy and then disappointment in 24 hrs. I’ve been thru that a lot in the past 3 weeks. Why truth preferred and the more false hope you give and followed by a let down, people get disappointed. Not a good thing locked up at home with nowhere to go but for groceries.
—————————–
#167 neo
*6,243
FYI the Germans do NO POST-MORTEM like Italia. Secondly, they only call it a COVID death if that is the only sickness they had. If there were other underlying conditions (e.g., Diabetes) then NOT COUNTED as a COVID death.
So ya, if Canada wants to bend the truth like the Germans, be my guest.
The running joke in Europe is how the Germans count. But you would not know that since your information comes from the N. American MSM now would you?
In fact it’s going SO WELL IN GERMANY that today:
German Minister of Finance of Hesse Thomas Schäfer commits suicide over his despair about the scale of the coronavirus problem and the government’s response to it.
Still think the Germans are doing just ducky and in your medical opinion Canada will be like them?
They are like a watered down version of the Chinese in reporting prowess and national pride thinking they are in the COVID Olympics or something.
And we’ll see if Canada does post-mortems like Italy does, I doubt it. So grain of salt on the mortality rates.
Why the “death rates “ in the UK are “rising”…..
“Now look at what has happened since the emergence of Covid-19. The list of notifiable diseases has been updated. This list — as well as containing smallpox and conditions such as anthrax, brucellosis, plague and rabies — has now been amended to include Covid-19. But not flu. That means every positive test for Covid-19 must be notified, in a way that it just would not be for flu or most other infections.”
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think
Who wants to buy anything at all (unless you have to). Take forever to get a jug of milk etc.
Went to the liquor store (private) stood outside – told them what I wanted and they watched them handle the box with no gloves and hand it to me. Ok I get it!
As for medical supplies going missing – I have heard they had to be locked down. People walking around with masks and gloves and our own medical professionals are still waiting, patients are calling donating the masks they have. WHAT THE ….(Big Question Mark).
Garth: “I pray we know what we’re doing.”
What did Bandit say when he answered you?
And where does ‘Pray’ fit on the curve?
Steady at the helm. Thank you.
“It is societies fault (driven by the rich) that the system is rigged so that people have to live paycheque to paycheque. Hopefully this will cause a massive reorganization of society where we go after all the rich who have the money, multiple properties, etc, and redistribute it to the people. Universal basic income, and taxing all investments and other vehicles that the rich use to make money for no actual work would be a great start.”
———————
Sadly, maths are hard. Even if you could take all the assets anyone owns over say some number like $2,000,000 and redistribute it to “the people” it would have a minimal affect on most people’s lives. There simply aren’t enough multimillionaires out there.
I chose $2,000,000 assuming we are going to leave RRSP’s and a modest house out of the calculation so normal people don’t get wiped out in the redistribution.
Then there is the problem of how do we liquidate the rich people’s assets? Remember most of them don’t have any money, the have assets. Stocks, factories, tow truck fleets, farms and the like are not money until you sell them. Who will buy it all? Even if the government were to seize it all in some sort of socialist revolution, what would they do with it? I suppose they would have to keep operating it and receive whatever profits are generated, but they already get half of it now. Plus a good chunk of all the salaries the rich pay their employees.
I realize this sort of “eat the rich” talk is a fall back language for many people in times like this but the reality is once we are done eating them, which won’t take but a few days, the economy will head for Venezuela. We know this with certainty because it has been tried many times before and the outcome is always the same. Once the rich have been eaten it won’t be long before we are eating each other. Well, experience shows we would eat our pets first (literally), then on to each other (figuratively, hopefully).
The only absolute metric is the number of deaths; and cAnada has a small number with respect to our population. We acted fast- this thing will taper off
FYI
I just saw this 41min YouTube and thought it might be helpful for someone treating really sick COVID19 people. (I am not a DR.)
Assuming it’s not a political stunt thing, BTW, Rudy W. Giuliani is President Trump’s personal Lawyer.
But I don’t think it is based on other info I have seen on Zinc and …
I hope it and/or other treatments can help to saves more lives.
Apparently the Dr MD in Video said the drugs are only about $20. US. which is also good news if it really does helps to keep the really sick people out of Hospital and alive. Fingers crossed this is true.
EXCELLENT NEWS: Hydroxychloroquine Treatment Effective on 699 Patients (starts at 1:27)
Rudy W. Giuliani
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TJdjhd_XG8
Hi Garth
Long time reader here (a couple of years actually). Two kids, a wife, and a Mortgage, no dog yet but we will get one, once we know we won´t have to still his food.
Moved to Canada from a third world country 6 years ago.
I wanted to thank you for your blog. It kept me sane in December 2018 when I thought the world was ending. Silly me. I hate what is happening with the Economy because of the virus, but the best medical advice we have is to isolate. We could open everything, let the sickness run its course. It seems most people affected would be Elders and not economically productive citizens. The fact that no sane people are actually proposing that gives me hope.
We will get through this.
Thank you for your hard work.
The lack of savings of the young professional is shockingly sad. I am the same age and ready to retire unless the current lockdown is prolonged and allowed to destroy the economic engine of our country.
PS let’s not forget that many of the people we perceive to be rich are more like our doctor friend, making $800,000 a year, paying half of that in taxes, and spending the remaining $400,000 a year on golf memberships and kitchen renovations. They don’t have any money. They have cashflow. I suppose you could target the remaining $400,000 but then the greens keepers and kitchen renovators would all be out of work.
A total of 1.5 million people died from TB in 2018 (including 251 000 people with HIV). Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS).
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis
http://www.stationgossip.com/2020/03/when-canada-meets-coronavirus-picture.html
How can you rest a case on ultimate death rate when only 5% recovered to date?
For the economies to bounce back before a vaccine is found 2 things for sure have to happen:
1. A TBD drug that kills the infection inside of a person, or prevent the virus from replicating and further infecting.
2, A Test Kit readily available like those pregnancy tests where people can self-test when they feel symptoms coming on and if infected they can go and get a prescription for the TBD drug – I’d speed up the prescription process towards that end.
Then, well after peak, people will venture back into the economy with some faith that they will not, if infected, get very sick or even die. And they will be back “in the saddle” fast.
I know it’s early, but if I the developed nations would pull together and pour their money into the above, make it happen, THEN MAYBE we might even get a recovery in Q4.
What I am reading now is that it seems everyone is having a stab at the TBD drug instead of pooling resources. Makes no sense to me from an economic or time is of essence points of view.
And, where is the WHO in this? They should be leading the charge towards those 2 ends.
#183 Slim
The fact sheet indicates that tuberculosis, or at least death from it, is mostly a third world problem. I am not sure how it relates to Covid-19 unless you are attempting to point out that when it hits the third world it could be devastating. I would agree with that. They generally don’t have anywhere near the medical facilities we do and even once a vaccine is developed they will be the last to get it. Even Bill Gates will run out of money before he can vaccinate them all.
We just need to set an acceptable total population fatality rate and proceed with business. Say 1%. If that’s exceeded, it’s time to revisit the plan.
Fear is the currency of control. We’re so afraid of dying we’re willing to endure a living death.
Read the book False Alarm: The Truth About The Epidemic of Fear by Marc Siegel.
“Life today for citizens of the developed world is safer, easier, and healthier than for any other people in history. So why is an epidemic of fear sweeping America? The answer, according to nationally renowned health commentator Dr. Marc Siegel, is that we live in an artificially created culture of fear.
In False Alarm, Siegel identifies three major catalysts of the culture of fear—government, the media, and big pharma. With fascinating, blow-by-blow analyses of the most sensational false alarms of the past few years, he shows how these fearmongers manipulate our most primitive instincts—often without our even realizing it. False Alarm shows us how to look behind the hype and hysteria, inoculate ourselves against fear tactics, and develop the emotional and intellectual skills needed to take back our lives.”
We’re living in the Dark Ages of Pure materialism, hypnotized by our psychotic culture to think this physical reality is all there is.
“Everything science has taught me strengthens my belief in the continuity of our spiritual existence after death. I believe in an immortal soul. Science has proved that nothing disintegrates into nothingness. Life and soul, therefore, cannot disintegrate into nothingness, and so are immortal.”
― Werner Von Braun – German (and later American) aerospace engineer and space architect, and leading figure in the development of rocket technology in Germany and a pioneer of rocket and space technology in the United States.
Wake up!
Second-hand smoke kills. No government has outlawed smoking, with its 45,000 annual deaths in Canada. Why? – Garth
It is economy, stupid. Taxes
“The infection rate nationally, thus far, is 0.015%. Three weeks ago the federal health minister said it could be between 30% and 70%. That is two thousand times the current level. Thus, it’s hard to know where truth lies. Does an overwhelming deluge lie ahead? Or was shutting down the entire economy, idling millions, an error?”
The projected rate was based on computer models with assumptions. Exactly what they are doing with climate change projections. The Virus projections at least are proven or disproven quickly, unlike climate change projections that will take years to find out if we made a mistake shutting done the oil industry in Canada. Am I the only one wondering why we still think increasing the carbon tax this week is the correct move?
#10 Bobby13 on 03.29.20 at 12:31 pm
This flu bug is nothing more than a scam to cover for broken markets and out of control debt. Supply chains were already broken markets were already teetering.
——————
Really? Tell that to the dead people and the people on ventilators.
Were markets broken and is debt out of control? Perhaps I can agree with you on that. But I think you have to jump the shark to conclude that governments all around the world would conspire to fake a pandemic as a cover up.
#181 G
FYI Hydroxychloroquine already used, compassionate purposes, in Italy. So far not as advertised. There are complications that arise from its use with COVID present. Still, if it works a bit, try it I say. And the original trail, small subject group, was done in France. Moderate success. Still needs clinical testing in the presence of COVID and why the French and the Italians and not using yet widespread.
The Americans learned of it from the French.
There are many more drugs being tested in Italy with promise, use Google Translate, so there is hope if Hydroxychloroquine does not pan out:
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioNotizieNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4344
In the GTA people are lined up at perscribed distance outside all grocery stores, dozens or hundreds in length. Poor people will catch their colds/flu in this damp rain. This is progress?
#150 YouKnowWho on 03.29.20 at 4:33 pm
Covid-19 likely “escaped” from BSL-4 WIV lab in Wuhan, where they have been hybridizing SARS and Coronavirus into HeLa and trying to create human infections.
Likely lab person got it, left, went to market a few times to get food, The rest is history.
Just like SARS “escaped” 4 times out of Beijing BSL-3 lab.
Scientific community was concerned about China rushing into BSL-4 due to history of ”escapes”.
China will be called upon to pay the bill for all this if this is found to be true. Trump/US is investigating since Feb.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology
Turns out lab “escapes” are frequent and source of nearly all recent pandemics.
https://nationalpost.com/news/a-brief-terrifying-history-of-viruses-escaping-from-labs-70s-chinese-pandemic-was-a-lab-mistake
……………………………….
There is a lot of evidence pointing in that direction. I find the lab scenario more believable than someone snacking on bat heads.
The whole hysteria over this thing is baffling.
People are equally hysterical over human-caused climate change. If people are the problem, well, let’s allow the problem to be reduced.
It’s either one or the other. A possible solution appears… but we’re going to do everything in our power to save all people? Such a contradictory species.
To lighten the mood…..
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ramsay-wild-turkey-great-escape-calgary-beltline-1.5514237
For everyone thinking of selling their investments (without absolutely needing to) let me offer this small reminder:
The ‘Roaring Twenties’ began less than 2 years after both the Spanish Flu epidemic and the end of WW1.
If you think recovery is impossible, think again.
A regular riot in the comment section lately. Don’t worry, odds are most will wake up tomorrow.
Running all these scenarios through ones noggin leads to bad conclusions and decisions. Bad.
Try being positive, eat right, workout, take care of yourself and others around you and chill. Not that a wee bit of bourbon wouldn’t help.
This will pass.
EXCELLENT ARTICLE:
Why Washington’s COVID-19 Relief Package Must Be Stopped!
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/why-washingtons-covid-19-relief-package-must-be-stopped
QUOTE:
The Senate’s $2 Trillion Coronavirus Relief Package is not fiscal stimulus and it’s not a lifeline for the tens of millions of working people who have suddenly lost their jobs. It’s a fundamental restructuring of the US economy designed to strengthen the grip of the corrupt corporate-banking oligarchy while creating a permanent underclass that will be forced to work for slave wages. This isn’t stimulus, it’s shock therapy.
QUOTE:
Did you know that “if you don’t already have direct-deposit information on file with the IRS from previous tax returns, you won’t get the emergency funds for up to 4 months”? That means millions of people will have zero income for 4 months! What will become of them? Where will they go? Who will provide them with shelter and food? Shouldn’t congress be asking these questions?
And what happens to the 50% of the American people who had less than $400 saved before the crisis hit? What happens to them when they fall between the cracks and lose their apartments, lose their jobs, and lose their ability to maintain their tenuous standard of living? These people will never regain their financial footing. Never. It’s a death sentence. We’re going to see an explosion of homelessness, drug addiction, depression, alcoholism, suicide and crime unlike anything this country has ever seen before. Are the imbeciles in congress so blind that they can’t see that they’re condemning a large part of the population to permanent, inescapable, grinding poverty and desperation? Can’t they see that?
QUOTE:
Do you understand why this bill is being rushed through congress?
It has alot to do with the falling stock market but more precisely with the hundreds of corporations that have been hawking bonds to gullible investors who thought they were buying the debt of responsible, well-managed companies that used the money to improve their product-line, train workers, or build new factories. But instead, greedy CEOs have been using the money to buy shares in their own companies to boost executive compensation and reward shareholders. It’s a multi-trillion dollar scam that blew up in their faces causing a complete freeze-over in the corporate bond market. That’s what’s really going on, there’s a massive credit crunch that has a stranglehold on the bond market and there are only two ways to fix the problem:
Let the failing corporations default and pick up the pieces after the dust settles or…
Launch a major $4.5 trillion bailout for busted corporations that drove their companies off a cliff.
Those are the two choices. Naturally Treasury Secretary Mnuchin chose the latter which suggests that the real motive for giving working people the $1,200 checks was simply to divert attention from the massive trillion dollar bailout to teetering corporations. That’s the real objective of the so-called fiscal stimulus bill. It’s another giant welfare check for the plutocrats.
=================
Wake TF Up folks…
If the current measures are successful, people like you will be able to say we were all wrong. The numbers will be low and it can be chalked up to an overreaction. I hope you get to say it was an overreaction. Lost liberties I agree are the great tragedy in all this, but off we go! Into the unknown.
Second-hand smoke kills. No government has outlawed smoking, with its 45,000 annual deaths in Canada. Why? – Garth
I can top this.
1.3m people die on the roads of this planet each year, 180k of them children. Yet we don’t dare give up the privilege of driving.
650k people have been dying of the flu each year, that’s roughly a baker’s dozen million or so on this side of 2000s. We’re good with it.
I think the issue with Corona is liability Garth. If you didn’t take the care and someone can prove they got it that way and died, you get blamed and have to pay. Bet you insurance companies noted they would not pay out liabilities if care isn’t shown and things locked down to show the care.
It is why I think when it is proven this Covid-19 “escaped” from WIV labs in Wuhan, China will have to pay the bill for this crap. Somehow.
Debt forgiveness. Something. They’ll figure it out.
>For Garth & Co. only. By the way, I’m still getting up to date on comments from “Amok.” I’ve been busy and the comments section is overloaded with people with lots of free time. Just a heads up here.
Laura Ingraham
@IngrahamAngle
Bring on the heatwave: check out the seasonality of all known coronaviruses in the U.S.
https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/1244198051176165376
@39 Attrition:
(Fake) news headline:
“Man Who Tested Positive for Coronavirus Dies in Car Accident: Covid-19 Claims Another Victim”
Tenants keep your rent.
Landlords keep your distance.
Everyone needs support. Not just property owners.
April 1
Here’s a link with more information.
http://parkdaleorganize.ca/
So Trump went to Norfolk, Virginia to see of the USNS Comfort.
I wasn’t looking at Trump.
Wasn’t even looking at the hulking white ship over his shoulder.
Looking for the more sentimental USS Wisconsin.
Old timers on the blog will remember by some odd twist of fate in May 2016 I span the travel bottle and ended up in Norfolk Virginia.
USS Wisconsin is anchored downtown with its big 64 painted on the side was never far out of sight.
I took a photo for Boom and showed him on here, he had visited and we both perhaps surprisingly really enjoyed the place.
Hidden gem, perhaps for someone to visit on the eastern side of Canada.
Anyway, in looking for the old posts, I stumbled on this one, roughly a month before he passed, which made me laugh.
He died with his sense of humour intact…
M45BC
M64WI
#45 BOOM! on 08.04.16 at 9:13 pm
You guys are possessed of lunacy there in Canuckistan.
Here in the land of cow shit and beer farts in my small town 20 minutes from La Crosse, one can buy a NEW 1500 sq foot 3 br 2 pooper ranch with attached 2 car garage city water, sewer, nat gas heat for under $165,000.
You can get a 30 yr mortgage under 3% as well. US taxes -if you earn $78 Grand a year are 15% plus the states 4.1% at that income. Sales taxes are 5.5% here. Smokes and booze are pretty cheap, we have not raised beer taxes since 1969.
Taxes on that 1/4 acre of crab grass will cost you $2000 a year and insurance about $350 a year. Car insurance is cheap too. We are one of the cheapest states in the country.
So, now you know why I live here. Yes, we are the U.S. where Trump vies against the Hillary for president. We don’t much give a dam either who wins. This year it is assured no matter who wins, we lose!
Average earned income here $58,700 US.
Sounds sort of like your place doesn’t it?”
Hey Flop,
this could be your song for tomorrow.
By REM
It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine)
Just posted
Wall steel journal
By Jeff Colyer
Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin continue to show results for patients.
https://apple.news/AtpyC0NwrQKS1DnoUCFJ3iw
Many financial analysts and forecasters now believe the world economy is in the biggest crisis since the Great Depression.
There are no historical analogs from which correlate to our current circumstances.
Note: a few days ago I suggested a dow bottom of 15-16 and a U shaped (multi year) recovery. In truth that was my guesstimate. No one knows with any certainty how low or how long.
One thing however does appear certain. The sooner this resolves the better because the longer this crisis lasts the greater the coming pain…
#29 another BC doc on 03.29.20 at 12:58 pm
“are the calls for financial Armageddon this time around any more prevalent?”
Garth would never authorize me to answer for him but I can tell you what I think the answer is: “No.”
I don’t know if you read any of my comments but one theme I have been beating on for years now is that assets are not money. Even if we can imagine this Covid thing causes a complete collapse of the dollar, it is important to remember that money isn’t real; it is an accounting system. The real economy, which is the roof over your head, the oil wells, the factories, the tow truck fleets, the plumbers, the doctors, the farms, and even the water in the river will all still be there when the day after tomorrow comes.
Currencies come and go, but the human spirit has been unstoppable since the renaissance.
Some things will change though. I wouldn’t be long commercial real estate, particularly office space or especially WeWork with a ten foot pole anymore. We’ve been hearing that telecommuting was coming for years now, and it has arrived. I don’t think anyone who has been telecommuting through this crisis and it worked is keen on heading back to the office. Commuting sucks and our roads were too busy.
The potential changes ahead are momentous. For example how many kids are going to want to go back to school once they figure out they can do it on line in 10 hours a week? What if we figure out that we can double the amount of students per school because they only have to come in for shop, band, and gym? Yes, the disruption will be huge, but fighting it is like the folks who burned down the automatic looms in Britain. After the adjustment, we’ll all be richer as resources are conserved for other purposes.
For 400 years and counting now, change has been a good thing.
#102 Oracle of Ottawa
This is what happened.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_of_1920%E2%80%9321
Penny Henny6:49 pm
Hey Flop,
this could be your song for tomorrow.
By REM
It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine)
//////////////
I’ve got one for tomorrow picked.
Yours is a good one, some guys at work the other day were playing it and laughing at it.
Got a small brain, so I’ll probably run out or be too busy, but at the moment the corona playlist is.
My Sharona.
Don’t Stand So Close To Me.
The Space Between.
It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine)
Laughter is the best medicine…
M45BC
I think I would like Dorothy very much. The few times that I’ve read a comment of hers that you have quoted made me think she is a very sensible woman. And now you have said that she likes physical books.
I do too. I have a small library in my living room; I say ‘small’ because it has been culled several times over the years, each time we moved house. Some titles have survived the culls, having been bought in the early seventies when we were first married. Even the bookshelves have been culled, replaced now by beautiful glass doored tall cases that are my joy every time I open them. The first ones consisted in burlap covered boards resting on skinny cinder blocks.
I find myself relying every single day on the comfort those books bring me. Many of them are very old friends and some new, having been Christmas gifts this year. Who knew how I would need them these last few weeks? Tell Dorothy that Indigo still delivers though the lack of personal contact is disheartening.
The chart showing the effect of flattening the curve to the point where it is less than the hospital ICU capacity should have data added to it.
What is the capacity: 12 ICU beds per 100,000 people?
Of 100,000 people, 70% eventually infected, 5% of those needing ICUs = 3,500 people needing ICU bed per 100,000 people.
If each person needs the ICU bed for one week, then 291 weeks of flattening to ensure capacity? (3500/12)
Am I wrong? How many more beds can be added?
Garth you will love this,lol, a parody from this guy by your favorite artist, Adele, ha,ha,ha!
Have to admit the guy is very imaginative! :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5azNpTwVk8
#8 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE!
Thanks, best laugh I had today! The glass is half full, eh.
Heck, if this postponement keeps up, then they win the Stanley Cup, right?
I heard a guy on cbc radio saying we should all sing O Canada outside next Saturday at 7 pm, in place of HNIC.
Shall we all try that?
Let’s do it!
I really think that after a few more weeks of this, throw the money you would have spent bailing out every business and employee into the health care systems and turn the lights back on.
Yes, flatten the curve for 3 weeks or so with lock downs, but 6 months of lock downs is going to do more damage than the virus. I feel so awful for all those facing domestic abuse, mental illness/axiety disorders, and the tens of millions facing poverty as a result of the lockdowns.
I am sure gun violence will kill more people than covid-19 in the USA in the next 3 years, but they won’t pass emergency trillion dollar legislation to stop that, will they? Ditto hunger, opioid addiction, malaria, other flu viruses, etc. on a global scale.
When this passes business will start up again and the economy will improve. All the infrastructure will still exist. Government debt will be even more unsustainable and many assets will be under new ownership.
In the US it looks like the big banks and corporations will get bailed out again. Boeing is looking for a $60B bailot, after borrowing $100B to buy back their own stock. Socialism for the rich, or should bankruptcy be initiated and trustees appointed?
#204 YouKnowWho on 03.29.20 at 6:38 pm
I can top this.
1.3m people die on the roads of this planet each year, 180k of them children. Yet we don’t dare give up the privilege of driving.
—-
I can top this and put this to bed once and for all. 5.3M toddlers under the age of 5 die every year. I don’t see people rushing to protect the children.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/children-reducing-mortality
The public health care system in Canada in normal times cannot manage the needs of the ever growing population with the ever common “doctor shortage” or hospital bed shortage or surgeon shortage so the curve from the corona pandemic would have to be “dug” into a deep deficit as flattening the curve would just be the same public health care crisis we already have just more so.
Consider if you will:
WWI, WWII, Spanish Flu, H1N1, Madonna (the singer), Adele, Watergate, the Clinton’s, the cold war, mass protests over everything, and green house gases.
Yet, here we are in a society where the poor people drive their cars to the protest rallies.
Even a king in years past didn’t live as well as 90% of the western world does now. We have central heating and internet. For almost everybody.
US lockdown extended until end of April.
On the way to 2008 levels.
Canada
6,280 cases and 65 deaths
1% mortality rate
10x normal flu
World
719,414 cases and 33,901 deaths
4.71% mortality rate
47x normal flu
Probably a wildly unpopular opinion but…
At what point does the cure (economic shutdown) become worse than the virus itself?
How long do we let this go? Consider that the economic consequences could eventually far outweigh the virus consequences (anarchy, suicide, a Great Depression etc)
I don’t have the answer to that but do wonder…. how long can we endure the economic shutdown before the long term consequences outweigh the current “solution”
Surely the financial guru’s must have a number of days in mind before we reach a point of no return?
Anyone?
#207 Keep Your Rent
Actually MetCap is deferring rental payments during covid 19 crisis. Also not evicting during this period. Don’t get comfortable.
There comes a time when you have to pay the piper.
Welcome to Parkdale.
#111 Grunt on 03.29.20 at 3:41 pm
There needs to be a future bylaw for grocery & pharma store aisles. They aren’t wide enough. Folks are still passing down too close together. If you qualify as a grocery or pharmacy outlet there should be a minimal legal distance between the aisles.\
*************************************
In another lifetime, in a galaxy far, far away, I was the bookkeeper in the largest, second busiest, grocery store in the country (at the time). Believe me when I tell you that, regardless the width of the aisles, shoppers will leave their carts in the middle of an aisle to wander off in search of something. They will park their carts side by side to engage in conversation and will not move until they’ve had their say. If an aisle were 10 feet wide (3 meters for you grasshoppers) it wouldn’t be enough some days. “Cleanup in aisle 3” should apply to traffic, not just to spilled jars of jam.
Finally some good news from the New England journal of Medicine. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?fbclid=IwAR3MnnFc4QNNdZCRp0vAb6DIyz4PqAKo4zLSoxPj7M7Qk6PRc9wzRY3tdVg
#98 Mr. Canada on 03.29.20 at 3:19 pm
People are getting hysterical. Walked down the street today with my spouse and a stranger yells out to walk 6 feet apart. Crazy. One thing is certain, our government and so called health “experts” have been trumping for years post-SARS that Canada was well prepared for the next pandemic. It is so obvious that poor planning and a lack of sense of urgency implementing these plans has been terribly co-ordinated. Zero excuse for the lack of much safety equipment, masks, ventilators, disaster recovery for assessment centers, testing etc. I often argue that Canadian politics is too concerned with what politicians think and believe, as opposed to what they can actually do.
yeah, I’ve got yelled at that I was taking up too much sidewalk space to myself, as I was holding onto my 4 year old and her scooter beside me so she doesn’t fall. sigh.
#39 Attrition on 03.29.20 at 1:19 pm
Anyone else notice how lately any Covid19 related deaths are being referred to in the media as having died of “complications from Covid19”?
=======================================
Yea, and while we’re at it, people don’t “drown”, they die from complications due to lack of oxygen. This whole drowning thing is a conspiracy peddled by the “deep” state and fake news outlets.
Basically, my take is that in his youth, Garth over-reacted to the 1987 stock market crash and called the end of capitalism.
That was an over-reaction, as he has admitted on these pages.
The lesson he drew from that is that it is always better to under-react to bear markets. That lesson has served him well over the last 30+ years– most of his professional career.
However, this is not the same situation as 1987 or 2000 or 2008.
This time there really is a bad bear at the door. A huge, hungry, grizzly bear.
The bear has taken the form of an invisible virus, that was likely an accidental release from the Wuhan Biosafety Lab, that is proving impossible to control.
We are way past 1987.
This is a while different kettle of fish. And in that kettle of fish there are also bears and viruses.
A bastard RNA intercross between a bat and a pangolin that maybe escaped a laboratory and infected a human.
We are dealing not with a bear but with a monstrosity of nature.
Its hard to digest that Canada is being brought to its knees from this Virus. 98% of cases are mild, 3500 people die a year from influenza, again its hard to believe that Canada is being brought to its knees. I guess better safe than sorry.
#212 GB
At least 2 weeks ago.
#221 1255 on 03.29.20 at 7:20 pm
Canada
6,280 cases and 65 deaths
1% mortality rate
10x normal flu
World
719,414 cases and 33,901 deaths
4.71% mortality rate
47x normal flu
—————
Sure it is.
I assume you and everyone you know has been tested so as to ensure accurate numbers? Not possible that several million cases of the Corvid are unknown and fully resolved?
So silly to shut down the world for an illness, that for the vast majority of people, fully resolves itself in two weeks with no ill effects.
Yes, a vanishing small portion of people die. That’s a fairly common theme for many illnesses.
You can tell the panic hysteria has reached epic proportions when politicians start offing themselves
https://www.dw.com/en/german-state-finance-minister-thomas-schäfer-found-dead/a-52948976
#71 Raging Ranter Sweden has a population of 10.3 million. There are 110 deaths reported due to COVID19. Canada has a population of about 37 million and 61 deaths attributed to COVID19. How is Sweden doing better than Canada? It is still early days for all the data to be disseminated. Mortality rates do not appear to be as bad as “models” suggest. Who said “There is nothing to fear but fear itself”. How prophetic.
The reader’s from Langley putrid rant fills with me disgust.
Dorothy may enjoy Gerald Durrell’s books. Lighthearted and funny, these books are a joy. Mr. Durrell was a fantastic gentleman ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Durrell )
#231 kommykim on 03.29.20 at 7:44 pm
#39 Attrition on 03.29.20 at 1:19 pm
Anyone else notice how lately any Covid19 related deaths are being referred to in the media as having died of “complications from Covid19”?
=======================================
Yea, and while we’re at it, people don’t “drown”, they die from complications due to lack of oxygen. This whole drowning thing is a conspiracy peddled by the “deep” state and fake news outlets.
Yeah…no, that actually is called drowning.
Unless they had stage 4 cancer. Then I supposed, even if found weeks later and partially decomposed, it would of course be death from…Covid19?
I am afraid the country (Canada) is pooched.. with the PM still hiding behind closed doors, and only popping out to give orders.. very shameful, in what is happening to the Canadian worker’s. At least President Trump is out there with the people trying to kick start the economy, he knows what the stoppage is doing to the USA economy. It is too bad Canada doesn’t have a Leader to run the country as the USA has. And, although USA is a separate country, we depend on their business. So, don’t bash and trash President Trump.
#154 Spiltbongwater on 03.29.20 at 4:38 pm
More people die from smoking- Garth.
Garth, is smoking contagious?
Second-hand smoke kills. No government has outlawed smoking, with its 45,000 annual deaths in Canada. Why? – Garth
——————————————————
Ever hear of the Tobacco lobby? Likewise with booze. Guns (in the US)?
Huge, extremely profitable industries with all kinds of political power. All nonsensical in terms of public health, but thriving industries. $$ == power.
Today’s obsrvations..
Spouse and I went for a drive…
Drove past Richmond General Hospital…maybe 5% of parking stalls in use..
RONA…about the same…
YVR..pretty dead
Drove down Marine to UBC…closer to UBC….a LOT of people out….bikes…joggers…cars….
Spanish Banks…Jericho…same thing….people of all ages etc enjoying the sunny day. Appears they wanted to avoid the “city” but tended to congregate in Point Grey area.Very few work masks…not much social distancing.
Back to Richmond….Malls are DEAD…
Over and out….
Your blog is a constant inspiration in a sometimes gloomy reality. Thank you for all the work you do on this blog Garth.
Well, Garth has repeatedly said this is a financial blog and not a empathy blog. Fair enough.
I guess we can therefore expect a healthy smattering of total sociopaths and psychopaths unable to “understand” why people are scared, how a novel virus is 100% different in any way shape or form from the regular flu, or what social distancing to give room to our health care systems means.
Add to that a sprinkle of paranoid conspiracy theorists and you have our comment section lol.
Here’s the truth: the economy was on life support before the pandemic. Literally. Totally dependent on unending economic stimulus to muddle forward. Covid just pushed it over the edge.
This will end though. A vaccine or effective drug will be the end of this situation. Problem is we are years away from either one of those, and the fear is very much real.
Garth expects a strong rebound. Maybe take solace in that? I totally disagree and think a multi year deep recession is more likely the outcome. Oh yeah, and the stock market will most likely tank further, regardless of all the trillions of money printing that just occurred.
MF
@#197 Yukon Elvi
“I find the lab scenario more believable than someone snacking on bat heads.”
++++
Just when I thought Ozzie couldnt get dragged back into the mud…..
#106 Not So New guy on 03.29.20 at 3:32 pm Nice, another electric car company on the way! Go Greltrical!
235 Sail Away on 03.29.20 at 7:50 pm
We get it already.
Covid to you is more like a paper cut, indigestion, or gas pains that can be relieved in the elevator.
You’re frustrated. Everyone is.
Just focus on buying stocks and toilet paper and watch for the company that is able to develop a vaccine first. Invest for mega profit early, become a billionaire, and ride off into the sunset. Spend time with family (from a distance), read a book. It’s not all bad.
MF
Sure a lot of responses on something a lot of you say is nothing.
I use a professional investment team, they have done very well for me.
I use an accounting firm to prepare my taxes. They, too, have done very well for me.
I used to have a lawyer on retainer when I worked. They also did very well for me.
I think I will leave the Covid-19 planning, best practices and so on to the experts as well.
Between Doctors Tam and Henry and with our politicians, Trudeau federally and Horgan in my province standing aside and letting the pros track, model and proscribe I am grateful I live in BC, in Canada.
Some of you reveal yourselves to be the type of person I wouldn’t share an elevator with.
https://www.vox.com/world/2020/3/27/21196246/coronavirus-germany-death-rate-covid-19-cases-italy-europe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJxfsREWKOs
I come across two information that validates each other (could be still wrong as well my apologies if it is wrong.) Germany death toll over coronavirus is 0.008 and wondering why ? There must be a reason and explanation.
The analytical, statistical, mathematical and even astrological experts coming out of the woodwork here lately…wow. A new level, Dawgz, a new level.
But, hey, maybe instead of falling into the trap of analysis paralysis, make things simple and easy on yourself. You’ll sleep better if you do.
Here’s how:
1) Ignore all health numbers, predictions, trend lines
2) If you get sick, take care of yourself like you normally do
3) If you get really sick and are having trouble breathing (and this applies to any situation btw, not just a suspected contagion infestation) call or see a doc.
Follow these three rules and I’ll give you 98% odds you’ll be just fine.
And if you happen to notice the three steps could apply to every friggen illness you’ve ever had or ever will, take that as a hint regarding the actual novelty of the novel CV.
But, I know, I’m not a doctor or an epidemiologist, so what the hell could I possibly know about anything related to my own health?
On second thought, maybe you should follow the numbers, listen to every contradicting expert opinion or whatever echo-chamber confirms your preexisting biases.
Ya. Do that.
with those numbers they will say “because of the actions we took, we saved many lives and that’s why the numbers are so low”
They will spin it and the sad part is us mere peasants in the real world will believe them.
And as they say, never let a good crisis go to waste, the virus was never created to infect the world on purpose. But you can bet that people somewhere are taking notes on the human behavior part for future use. Those in office know fear is a big motivator in humans.
Watch for more of a move to socialism. It is completely wrong that people don’t even have a few months of living expenses. That is a massive failure not only for all knowing politicians, but for people themselves. Life is all about choices. Most have clearly made the wrong ones.
So, now the govt rushes to “save” Canadians. But at the same time people become impoverished to the point that they will welcome socialism because desperation will reign supreme.
Don’t think it will happen here? That’s what they ALL say. Mark this post then let’s review later.
#182 Manitoban on 03.29.20 at 6:03 pm
“… Moved to Canada from a third world country 6 years ago.”
———————————
Your Manitoban neighbours are likely pretty upset at that.
This is bizarre. People are dying less from other causes. I doubt that it’s netting out, but people are definitely being more careful.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-saving-lives
@#225 Gb
“Probably a wildly unpopular opinion but…
At what point does the cure (economic shutdown) become worse than the virus itself?
How long do we let this go? Consider that the economic consequences could eventually far outweigh the virus consequences (anarchy, suicide, a Great Depression etc)”
++++
An interesting conundrum.
Mitigation vs Suppression
Even China is looking at re-instating lockdowns if the virus comes back there.
So….the question is.
Do we allow the virus to “run its course” and overwhelm the hospitals will the sick?
Accept what ever losses (DEATHS is such a harsher term)may come our way.
Some estimates say 2.2 million Americans may die, 500,000 Brits.
(Imperial College in London epidemiological study.)
I guess it could be worse.
I’m just glad I dont live in Latin America, Africa or India right now.
OR do we have “rolling isolations” for two weeks at a time as the virus pops up in different areas? Can the govts afford to pay people to stay home.
Will our truck drivers and hospital workers keep working?
Will crime take off?
Canadians lose their thin veneer of civility?
Looting, anarchy?
Historic times.
US Military Homeland Security locking themselves in Cheyenne Mt? Over a virus? Yeah like not weird at all.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162937/Coronavirus-drives-army-command-teams-infamous-Cheyenne-mountain-bunker.html
#201 espressobob on 03.29.20 at 6:35 pm
A regular riot in the comment section lately. Don’t worry, odds are most will wake up tomorrow.
Running all these scenarios through ones noggin leads to bad conclusions and decisions. Bad.
Try being positive, eat right, workout, take care of yourself and others around you and chill. Not that a wee bit of bourbon wouldn’t help.
This will pass
——
Yep, there are better things to dwell on that’s for sure. Like getting some work done around the house while I’m laid off. Got quite a bit done already and it’s only been a day.
I plan to stay busy over the next few weeks, and I’ll be staying away from the fear sowing Tabloid our national broadcaster has become.
#236
So silly to shut down the world for an illness, that for the vast majority of people, fully resolves itself in two weeks with no ill effects.
Yes, a vanishing small portion of people die. That’s a fairly common theme for many illnesses.
—————–
I don’t agree. If we did nothing we would have a modern day remake of 1918-1920. You would be safe as you could be fishing north of Lund in a secluded house, giving us your daily FB-type update (which many of us don’t give a shite about). However, the ones on the front lines would be taking it for the team and under seige (look at NYC, Lombardy etc..). I do agree that we can’t be locked up for months and months as the financial impact will be doomsday, but my sense is that they made the right call of a global lockdown at this stage.
Trump states that the pandemic will peak(ie death toll) in 2 weeks…logical to extrapolate this scam will last another month at least.
We are done folks…the Great Depression will look like a picnic.
Fasten Your Seatbelts…
#252
But, I know, I’m not a doctor or an epidemiologist, so what the hell could I possibly know about anything related to my own health?
On second thought, maybe you should follow the numbers, listen to every contradicting expert opinion or whatever echo-chamber confirms your preexisting biases.
———————–
Thankfully you are not in charge of anything relating to public health. Just turn off the news, don’t bother learning anything, don’t even re-read what happened in 1918…. just close everything down, including your mind.
I’ve skimmed through most the comments today and seen only a couple posts about the origin of the virus. Maybe it is fear, lack of awareness, tube vision, programming or a combination of those but people seem to be ignoring the elephant in the room. Is it really that far fetched that the virus did not occur naturally? Is it possible that it was unleashed on the people by actors that are far above the pay grade of governments, using bats and whatever other delivery systems to spread the virus as a way to bring about desired social change ?
Instead we quibble over numbers and percentages. Egos abound where property owners look down on the renters as being irresponsible losers or which countries are better at flattening the curve. There are also many good comments about how governments are jumping at the opportunity to empower themselves more over the crisis whether or not it is as serious as it is hyped up to be.
We’re playing with an equation where we are ignoring one of the variables which may be the deliberate spread of this disease. Of course most people cannot or will not go there because that does not compute into our programming and the reality we’ve been fed and believe.
One poster posited that we are being played. That’s one way to put it. I feel bad for the people most of which live simply and do not ask for anything more than to be left alone to lead a decent life and provide for their families. However, those behind world affairs want it all. They are playing with a stacked deck against the people and will never be satisfied even after the people are bled dry of money and hope. Things aren’t always what they appear to be. Perhaps in this day and age very few things are what we think they are. These kinds of events don’t “just happen”.
#258 IHCTD9
We all get knocked down to the mat once in a while, but get up and whipe the blood off our face and come back swinging.
It takes guts to be a fighter.
No one can explain this book
http://www.hoaxbusterscall.co/2020/03/the-oracle-had-spoken.html?m=1
#249 MF on 03.29.20 at 8:19 pm
235 Sail Away on 03.29.20 at 7:50 pm
We get it already.
——————-
We get your opinions, too, MF, but you also keep repeating them:
Toronto awesome
Housing racket crooked
The Corona: worthy of group panic because some will croak
Someone needs to counteract the negativity. Consider my posts a public service.
@#258 IHCTD9 on 03.29.20 at 9:00 pm
Like getting some work done around the house while I’m laid off.
—
Funny thing i filled my EI application on friday night, no spelling mistakes. Imagine that, two weeks off for now. I was planning on building raised bed garden but better half informed me that she already planted 80cad worth of tulips weeks ago, I just cant win against this woman…
Even i got (web version) sketchup and made 3d mocked up garden layout. I hate sketchup.
—
@Sail Fishing adventure
no catch pictures… just a fishing stories.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yS9cY5pxAEI
#259 yvr_lurker on 03.29.20 at 9:01 pm
You would be safe as you could be fishing north of Lund in a secluded house, giving us your daily FB-type update (which many of us don’t give a shite about).
——————–
Oh, the underlying theme from posters is that the world wasn’t prepared for this illness.
I’m just trying to help folks prepare for the (apparently imminent) apocalypse. Consider that as you munch your frog, squirrel and rabbit mulligatawny while others waste away.
Snitch lines are here
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/new-york-coronavirus-deaths-are-reaching-apocalyptic-heights
Deaths reaching “apocalyptic” level in NY hospitals.
Read. Learn.
Garth, please compare the response and actions of Trump and Trudeau:
https://youtu.be/W6WOXz7T9Rk
https://youtu.be/dJ3wj-6nevg
Is Canada an international joke? We can’t retool our factories to supply PPE? We can’t close our borders? We can’t do testing?
Trudeau basically told children who are sad about missing school to call the kids help phone… in French… then in English. He had nothing to say, he had to draw out this address.
I’m no doomer, we’ll pull through, but this guy isn’t helping. In fact he sent our “surplus masks” to China! Kidnap one Huawei executive and all of a sudden he answers to China.
#197 Yukon Elvis
……………………………….
There is a lot of evidence pointing in that direction. I find the lab scenario more believable than someone snacking on bat heads.
……………………………….
See the CBC today? Big piece about how it is ignorant to call this a “Chinese Virus” – when it absolutely is. Chinese labs have been messing with SARS and Coronaviruses and this crap has been “escaping” their labs for two decades.
It would be nice if the media would hanker down and get to the bottom of the origin of this thing – there are only 2 possibilities really as we note.
One of the top things on the list that is a MUST is that this crap DOES NOT happen again.
#221 not 1st
……………………………….
I can top this! :-)
1% death rate of 7.8B is 78million – Coronavirus could still be a winner.
#103 Bob
Maybe you should settle down..
“John Hopkins has aided in creating this panic with their graphics which gives the impression that all of Europe and China are infected. They have visually greatly exaggerated the spread of this virus and appear to be enjoying the havoc they have caused, as if this were some video game. The total population of China was 1.386 billion in 2017. The total number of cases was 0.01%, yet their red dots make it appear that the entire population is infected.”
“The infection rate nationally, thus far, is 0.015%.”
Hi Garth, one thing to realize is that the health authorities aren’t each suspected COVID19 case. I’ve looked at over 300 cases (employer), and many sick people are being told to just quarantine at home, and to only go to the hospital if it gets worse or severe. Thus, some of these numbers of overall COVID19 cases in Canada aren’t fully accurate. Heck, if you don’t have any testing at all, you have an even fewer amount of incidents!
From Bloomberg not the full article.
President Donald Trump abruptly abandoned his ambition to return American life to normal by Easter, heeding advice from the government’s top doctors that re-opening the U.S. economy in two weeks risks greater death as the coronavirus outbreak accelerates.
In a stark shift from two weeks of measured optimism, the president said his guidelines for Americans to practice “social distancing” would remain in place until at least April 30, and he warned that 100,000 or more people may die.
He said in a Rose Garden news conference that he hoped the country would reach “the bottom of the hill” by June 1 — “could even be sooner, could be a little bit later.”
***********
Trump will now Pivot to be the defender of the people. Uncle Trump.
CFTC Quietly Bails Out Capital One – CapitalOne made a terrible trade, betting via derivatives that oil would not plunge to where it is now – at 17 year lows – and only CFTC intervention prevented a margin call of unknown magnitude from being sent to Capital One’s corner office. Which is surprising considering that the bank is a relatively small player in the energy lending and financing business, with energy loans accounting for just 1.4% of its total loan book, according to its filings.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cftc-quietly-bails-out-capital-one
EVENT 201:
“The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.”
There are 5 videos to watch but in particular #3. It is amazing how the discussions are similar it is to what is actually going on today. Worth the viewing.
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/videos.html
What happened to listening to people with actual expertise? You have stated you have none.
There’s plenty around, and they pretty much all agree.
https://www.macleans.ca/society/science/what-does-the-covid-19-endgame-look-like-five-simple-steps/
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196496/coronavirus-pandemic-could-have-caused-40/
Dolce Vita lives in the north of Italy. Our holiday home is way down in the south on the ankle bone of the Italian boot. In our town, pop 4500, there are currently 11 cases of coronavirus. These consist of two families who were infected by a relative escaping the north and returning home. To ensure that there are no more, these two family houses are guarded and the three routes down off our mountain are all blocked by the police. This is what you have to do to prevent spread. Easy to do in a small mountain town, hard to do in a big urban city. This virus spreads by internal travel within a country. Think on this Canada.
#251 theoryAndPractice on 03.29.20 at 8:27 pm
https://www.vox.com/world/2020/3/27/21196246/coronavirus-germany-death-rate-covid-19-cases-italy-europe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJxfsREWKOs
I come across two information that validates each other (could be still wrong as well my apologies if it is wrong.) Germany death toll over coronavirus is 0.008 and wondering why ? There must be a reason and explanation.
Its the beer!
For all those who think that jingle mail can’t happen here…
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/heres-how-canadians-could-walk-away-from-their-homes-if-house-prices-fall/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Question: Should I use my last month’s rent and renegotiate May 1st?
#157 Penny Henny on 03.29.20 at 4:39 pm
#106 Not So New guy on 03.29.20 at 3:32 pm
I’ve heard it said the best time to start a business is in the pit of a depression. The bottom of the business cycle.
1. Labor is cheap and desperate. Some very talented people are out of work and willing to work cheap.
2. Credit is hard to come by so new competitors will not be starting up like they would at the peak of the cycle when banks are shoving money down your throat.
3. Current competitors will be suffering the burden of legacy debt and legacy wages so it will be easier to underprice them with no debt and cheap labor
4. Even liberal governments will smile upon you
5. The economy will grind along at worst but over the long term should be up.
The risk/reward of starting a business at the bottom of the cycle is huge assuming you can properly capitalize it. Survive that and you can survive much
//////////////
don’t forget the $40,000 interest free loan from Government and up to $10,000 of that is forgivable
============================
Covered under point 4 ;)
FDA issues emergency authorization of anti-malaria drug for coronavirus care
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/29/fda-emergency-authorization-anti-malaria-drug-155095
Crazy times indeed. I cashed out of mostly all my stocks back in December of 2019. I moved my family from Victoria bc to a small little town in Saskatchewan close to my wife’s parents. It was a massive adjustment for us. We Paid 29k for a smaller house 2 bed with a lift. I can work from home which is great. We sold our house for 1.2 I currently have 2.3 million in cash now. Garth what would
You recommend doing with the cash? Should I buy some ETFs and stocks along with some small rentals in this small town of mine? Or just wait until the fall time to do anything. Our monthly costs are around 1500$. Thanks for any advice. Great blog!!!
Wow, some scary people running loose in the world these days……heavy sigh…..
On a brighter topic, should I take my CPP now that I just turned 60? or since I have no children (or anyone else I am concerned about leaving my estate to) would it be wiser to leave it alone as long as possible? Or will this new mess on the financial end of things with the government mean they somehow mess with/change the CPP rules when we can collect, or how much? Any thoughts on that?
Bless your humble, chiseled abs :D)
BANNED
Different types of DRUGS and efficacy COMPARISON for COVID, clinical trials in Italy for them and in PLAIN ENGLISH:
https://i.imgur.com/ZJ1zCWh.jpg
From a Doc in Monaco forwarded to me by a Microbugs Max Planck researcher pal from some U of California (Twitter pal – Social Media at times v. useful).
Hydroxychloroquine seems to be the easiest one to use as prevention and long lasting availability.
Now all we need is a quick self-test kit if any of the above or in combination pan out (my guess, not a Doc, but starting to look like the AIDS Cocktail in the making except different virus, for COVID).
MAYBE Q4 BACK TO NORMAL????? Q3?
THAT would be something.
France implemented 1/1/1 rule.
1 person allowed out
1 km from your home only
1 hour allowed out – then back home
…..Belgium charging people 250 Euros.
It will come to USA and Canada for further isolation.
More businesses will need to close.
Sometimes money doesn’t matter much – this is one of the times. Stay safe everyone.
Age Group (Los Angeles County Cases Only-excl LB and Pas)
0 to 17 34
18 to 40 812
41 to 65 797
Over 65 395
These figures taken from public health, Long Beach County in California. They are death (so far) figures.
Seems 18-40 year olds are in graver danger in LA than the old guys.
http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/locations.htm
Check your link. Those are not death numbers, but cases. – Garth
Other ideas to get people back to work without fear are:
Antibody COVID certificates.
Germans tossing the idea around, Brits talked about it awhile ago.
Probably best to make masks, gloves mandatory as well (assume all infected) since there could be a 2nd wave mutated COVID pandemic as did the Spanish Flu (2nd wave responsible for most of the deaths).
#111 Grunt on 03.29.20 at 3:41 pm
There needs to be a future bylaw for grocery & pharma store aisles. They aren’t wide enough. Folks are still passing down too close together. If you qualify as a grocery or pharmacy outlet there should be a minimal legal distance between the aisles.
—
Easy solution. Remove all food-like products leaving only real food. Tons of freed up space.
Garth, one last thing.
SIGN OF WHAT IS TO COME? SIGN OF THE TIMES…
From Torino (Turin) candy vending machines being converted to dispense masks, gloves, gel, etc. (as usual, use Google translate):
https://twitter.com/LaStampa/status/1244513718538506241
WHATEVER it takes to get people BACK TO WORK, to easily find materials to protect themselves and NOT be in fear.
(vending machines not really an Italian thing, though I expect this will be successful in N. America)
#265 Sail Away on 03.29.20 at 9:55 pm
-All those themes you mentioned I say are true.
There is a fine line between a calming voice and spreading disinformation in this time. Just saying.
Carry on.
#287 Carlos the Unwashed on 03.30.20 at 1:14 am
BANNED
-I can only imagine what little germs were under this post that we were shielded from.
MF
25K in savings is a great start vs. the majority of Canadians, though the ‘eat the rich’ is an unfortunate viewpoint. It was the gents choice to get married knowing their spouses income potential and to subsequently have a pair of children.
When acquiring a spouse and/or a house – take a moment to step back and look at the long term financial ROI before finalizing the deal. It is during times of difficulty that the impact of such decisions really comes to light.
#240
You are looking at samples that are not really comparing apples to apples.
The younger people have taken a braver approach to this and are more likely to take some risks because they will have fewer complications. The elderly know to hunker down and stay away. This naturally will skew the results.
The younger ones being infected is not a bad thing at all, if sufficient amounts are infected and recovered, they will provide herd immunity that will slow transmissions eventually and bring this thing to an end.
When #45 talked about riding it out, this was really what was being talked about. Put the old and vulnerable in hiding and have the younger ones go back out. This will eventually come to pass. The big question is will they come back out? The young ones. In wars, who are called to fight?
BTW, NYC is trialing ANTIBODY tests. There are significant amounts of people who have already had Covid but do not know it.
If you live in Canada, you will see that this government has not been up front with people. Transmission has been mainly through people who showed NO symptoms. By the time these people were screened they had already created solid transmission chains. Second the use of MASKS will and should become mandatory. This will help flatten the curve. No doubt, not necessarily the N95 types but even home made types. Why? while transmission has been touted as being by touch, it really starts in the air. Masks helps stop the expulsion of particles. That means less to transfer by touch and by air.
On foggy days……..DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE. The virus will sit in the fog for hours catching a ride in the vapor droplets.
Those using construction N95 masks need to disable the side valves as these will allow direct expulsion of droplets. DO so to protect everybody please.
@ #286 statsfreak on 03.30.20 at 1:13 am
I’ll just repeat Garth’s wise words:
“When the government offers you money, take it”.
Do the calculations, how long would it take you to regain even one year of delayed payment? Could take anywhere between at least 10 years to 13-15 years.
@#279 Jane24
“This is what you have to do to prevent spread. Easy to do in a small mountain town, hard to do in a big urban city. This virus spreads by internal travel within a country. ”
++++
My god how ironic.
You recommend NOT travelling and yet you have abandoned your Italian palazzo(Palace?) and scurried 1000’s of KM’s back to Jolly old Blighty where you are forced to decide whether to stay in the Cottage by the Sea (sell or not to sell?)or the Condo in the city.
Have you ever NOT surreptitiously bragged about how much money you have in every post you write?
No matter.
We’ll see how safe London is in “28 Days” and then “28 Days Later”.
#285 Cowman on 03.30.20 at 12:47 am
You have a horseshoe up your ass and 100 years worth of living expenses saved in cash. Why are you asking for investment advice?
#210 News today on possible treatment on 03.29.20 at 6:49 pm
Just posted
Wall steel journal
By Jeff Colyer
Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin continue to show results for patients.
https://apple.news/AtpyC0NwrQKS1DnoUCFJ3iw
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Joe Biden said he invented the corona virus cure when he was searching for the injured Dr. Livingstone in the Congo in 1915, dodging German WWI patrols.
Nancy Pelosi backed him up, saying she remembers it. The Germans wore grey. Biden wore blue.
@#286 Statsfreak
“should I take my CPP now that I just turned 60? ”
+++
If you need the money. take it.
But I have two employees that are both 65 and are stil working (who also took CPP early) and now OAS.
(Apparently the poor saps didnt marry rich like Jane24.)
The extra income bumps you into a higher tax bracket. Tax plan accordingly.
Also, in these crazy economic times.
One 65 year old opted for taking time off to avoid the Cv19 infection and applied for EI.
His CPP and OAS payments effectively neutralize any EI payout………
Hmmm.
Death stats in New York State off the charts…with worse news to come…..
Anyone wanna guess how that will affect the New York Stock exchange today?
Trump.
Worse…… president….. ever…… in a crisis.
Food shortages- setting us up for it? Ask the Minister for Middle Class Prosperity.
(For years here I’ve been saying flip 180 deg. everything our rulers say, to make sense. Middle class is gonzo)
https://twitter.com/GreyTonka/status/1244400530128068608
My friend’s son on the news tonight, almost in tears, may not be able to plant crops this year because their migrant work force is being dicked around.
These guys supply berries, melons and veggies to grocery stores all over Ontario.
I can’t tell you how sickening this is, its a 3rd generation farm and they have made huge investments in farm markets and housing for workers.
@#290 Ustabe
“These figures taken from public health, Long Beach County in California. They are death (so far) figures.”
++++
Those are INFECTION rates not death rates.
Get your rumour mill gossip straight.
In the future we must demand central banks stop pulling demand forward when free markets deflate. No more lowering rates and credit creation when Mr. Market decides it’s time to cool off! It’s this total BS that’s got us to where we are today. Growth has a natural cycle and is never fooled in the long run by central bank intervention.
This of course begs the following question: Who benefits (Cui Bono) by these shady monetary principles?
e.g. Wouldn’t you rather suffer a small paper cut once a week than a gaping six inch gash annually?
You decide gentle reader…
People used to be tougher and braver.
WW1: 116,000 U.S. deaths.
WW2: 419,000 U.S. deaths.
Bear down and get at ‘er.
More recently,
Vietnam war:
U.S.involvement from March 1965 to March 1973. 8 years. 59 thousand U.S. fatalities. 7375 per year on average.
Their government said full steam ahead.
U.S. deaths from Covid19 so far: 2490.
Total freakout.
What am I trying to say?
I have no idea.
But it seems to me that the U.S. has become a society of pussies.
Meow.
There was no economic collapse until the U.S. freaked out over Covid.
Stop the U.S. panic over the covid situation and the economy recovers world wide.
#154 Spiltbongwater on 03.29.20 at 4:38 pm
More people die from smoking- Garth.
Garth, is smoking contagious?
Second-hand smoke kills. No government has outlawed smoking, with its 45,000 annual deaths in Canada. Why? – Garth
………………………………………………………………………
45,000 annual deaths in Canada by choice. You don’t have to smoke. Its a choice dummies!
The second hand smoke that kills people is basically poisoning someone else unintentionally so that is an assault.
Hi Garth
I work as a public health nurse and you have to be careful with the number of cases that are being reported. I work in BC and testing is really limited only really sick people and health care workers are being tested. This is because of the limited number of tests that can be done within our current system. Given this I see the reported confirmed cases as more the tip of the ice berg. As you have stated most people will have mild symptoms and will probably be unaware that they had it.
Del
Fair comment. But we have to rely on the data at hand, lest emotions run amok (which they are already). Thank you for your service and sacrifice. – Garth
Trump talking to Putin today on Oil prices…finally!
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-speak-putin-today-discuss-131204689.html
#302 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 8:25 am
Hmmm.
Death stats in New York State off the charts…with worse news to come…..
Anyone wanna guess how that will affect the New York Stock exchange today?
Trump.
Worse…… president….. ever…… in a crisis.
…………………………………………………………………….
Trump is a pile of dog turd no matter what, before he assumed office and long after he is dust.
Jesus people just listen to his ramblings about this crisis from February and all of March up until Friday and Sunday. He has mislead the nation, lied , played down the severity and infectious rate of this virus to play fiddle while Rome burns. Someone in the medical staff must have taken that impulsive twit by the ear said “Look A$$hole your president now act like one and don’t go off script”
@#236 Sail Away on 03.29.20 at 7:50 pm
#221 1255 on 03.29.20 at 7:20 pm
Canada
6,280 cases and 65 deaths
1% mortality rate
10x normal flu
World
719,414 cases and 33,901 deaths
4.71% mortality rate
47x normal flu
—————
Sure it is.
I assume you and everyone you know has been tested so as to ensure accurate numbers? Not possible that several million cases of the Corvid are unknown and fully resolved?
____________________
exactly this.
the actual mortality rate is well under 1%.
get a grip people.
Hi Garth
I also wonder how this will effect the economy in the long run and wonder if it will be a bad or good outcome in places like Italy.
After periods of wealth destruction and mayhem like ww2 there were large economic booms if the conditions were right.
I have to be careful how I say this as its just an observation and in no way do I wish this to happen as no one wants to see a loved one die. I always remember when a Japanese minister was asked by a bunch of old people in Japan what they can do for their country. His response which he got in a lot of trouble for was to die.
When you think about it places like Italy the biggest case fatality rate at current figures is about 20% for the over 80yrs. If these are the people that get the hardest hit won’t it mean that when this is over there is a good chance the economy will recover as you have reduced a considerable amount of future state expenditure like pensions and health care. In effect your change a countries average or median age to a lower number.
Would like your idea on this Garth?
Del
The unfortunate deaths of a few thousand oldies will not revive the economy of a country. Screw your head on. – Garth
@#300 Shoshin
“Germans wore grey. Biden wore blue.”
++++
No No. The Confederates wore grey. Biden wore blue.
#304 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 8:39 am
@#290 Ustabe
“These figures taken from public health, Long Beach County in California. They are death (so far) figures.”
++++
Those are INFECTION rates not death rates.
Get your rumour mill gossip straight.
Click the link and read. Deaths. Right off the LA County Public Health website. How can you have a infection rate of 396 or whatever. An infection rate would be expressed as a % of population or something.
Recall a few weeks ago I reported, (heh), link and everything, that China’s cell phone carriers were losing customers well ahead of their reported Covid death numbers? Well its now 21 million accounts gone. A few more deaths than reported maybe?
Things are going to be tough in the US this week. Things are about to go exponential down there…and there is talk among health experts that the virus is attacking and killing the young in North America, not just older folks.
The LA death figures and the age groupings that are ending up dead bear that out.
#266 NoName on 03.29.20 at 9:58 pm
@#258 IHCTD9 on 03.29.20 at 9:00 pm
Like getting some work done around the house while I’m laid off.
—
Funny thing i filled my EI application on friday night, no spelling mistakes. Imagine that, two weeks off for now. I was planning on building raised bed garden but better half informed me that she already planted 80cad worth of tulips weeks ago, I just cant win against this woman…
Even i got (web version) sketchup and made 3d mocked up garden layout. I hate sketchup.
——
I think in about a week you can apply for the CERB cash, that’s what I’m going to do. I think EI is bombed, might take a while.
I have 1 tree to take down, and about 5 that are going to get trimmed/thinned. Bit more raking left to do. Also a big load of stuff to clean up and list on Kijiji.
I hate sketchup too, tried it but it would take too long to learn. Boss let’s me use ACAD at work. :)
#56 yorkville renter on 03.29.20 at 1:49 pm
Garth, no one knows what they’re doing- this is new for everyone. what is right or wrong can be decided in 6 months but for now I won’t hate on anything until it all shakes out.
This whole ordeal is tough, but if your loved one dies then nothing would be considered too hard.
I know someone who died from CV-19 who has teenage daughters… I’m sure the kids would trade everything they own for their dad to come back.
on my part, I continue to pay employees but can’t do it in perpetuity so I appreciate the government subsidy.
I am sorry for your loss. Truly. But let’s remember 45,000 people a year in Canada die from smoking. So far the virus has taken 61. – Garth
…………………………………………………………………
Sorry to hear about this death. The issue is people don’t comprehend what havoc this virus is causing to families on a personal level regarding the inviolability of life. These children would give rats A$$ about money to have their father back. Family first is my motto. Livelihoods are being affected yes but if you’re departed it doesn’t matter how much currency you made on the markets. I know that if you’re a believer in any Christian religion that your sins are paid for and you’re good to go cash or no cash. If you’re not a believer then sitting in the ground is the same the eternal void is black, soundless and you’re good to go cash or no cash. No amount of cash is going to help bring you back either way.
#309 Dups on 03.30.20 at 9:29 am
Trump talking to Putin today on Oil prices…finally!
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-speak-putin-today-discuss-131204689.html
……………………………………………………………………
The Russians own him! Trump is Putins little bitch!
What is he going to say to Putin stop your production? The Russians need money.
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/covid-19-renters-april-1
Get ready, it’s coming. April 1st. KaBlammo. 800,000 broke Canadians can’t pay rent and won’t. Everything discussed up till now is baby farts.
Fair comment. But we have to rely on the data at hand, lest emotions run amok (which they are already). Thank you for your service and sacrifice. – Garth
Hi Garth
I agree with your reply. One of the biggest things we have been doing is trying to calm people down, people think because these extreme measures are happening this must be the zombie apocalypse.
We keep explaining to people that its nothing like that, but for us to slow it down so our health system is not overwhelmed and unable to care for the people who get sick, we have to take extreme measures even though the majority of people are going to be just fine.
Alas I think are main issue is that we are just human and being a herd animal it does not take much to get us spooked.
Del
#250 Ustabe on 03.29.20 at 8:22 pm
I think I will leave the Covid-19 planning, best practices and so on to the experts as well.
==================================
I don’t know where I read it or heard it the last few days, maybe here.
If Kennedy had listened to the experts (the folks at the pentagon) regarding the Cuban missile crisis we would all be radioactive dust right now.
The experts always talk their books
Garth, you have indeed stated some facts, such as the number of discovered infected, and the number of attributed deaths. You have also offered some comparisons to how many deaths are caused by other significant illness. These are informative, and generally indisputable.
The troublesome nature of any analysis beyond those facts and comparisons are clearly upsetting some. In reality, we do not have enough information to determine a mortality rate for those infected, since we do now know how many are infected now (only how many are discovered) and we do not know how many were infected on the day that anyone who dies became infected. That would be a more appropriate denominator than how many are infected on the day of death, or as we seem to see, dividing total deaths by total known infected.
We should really pay attention to the professionals from Public Health, and their key messages that this can spread fast enough to overwhelm our healthcare, thereby increasing the death rate. While not numerical, these points have led to the guidelines that we need to distance, given there are essentially no other tools to slow this down.
#197 Yukon Elvis
By the way Yukon Elvis, blaming “food” for bio-accidents is an old trick in communist nations.
Ever hear of the Sverdlovsk anthrax leak? Guess what was blamed for it? Tainted meat. Years later details came out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak
Check this detailed writeup on this WIV lab “escape” likelihood:
https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/
It’s not hard to put 2 and 2 together. Honestly.
The other thing is, all the Chinese food I’ve eaten – and I’ve eaten quite a bit- is well cooked. From what I have sampled of Chinese diets, Chinese people aren’t fond of raw or uncooked foods. Certainly there is nothing appealing about a raw bat – and they would cook it well and viruses don’t handle cooking heat well at all.
Can error be made? Sure. But we’re also talking about bunch of mutations and hybridizing needed here to make this crap transferable to HeLa/Humans – as WIV’s own papers on the subject illustrate – it was complicated to achieve.
So, the fact that this is transferable to humans – and none of the hundreds of versions they sampled were until they hybridized them….well, let’s just say I’m not buying food as a source.
Containment violation in lap – torn glove/suit/mask, transition to lab worker- who doesn’t admit to the error because of mild symptoms perhaps, and then…”Oh yeah, I have to go to the market to get some food.” Cough, Cough. Roll Credits.
And the Oscar for best Biosafety “escape” goes to…
#306 Dharma Bum on 03.30.20 at 9:08 am
People used to be tougher and braver.
WW1: 116,000 U.S. deaths.
WW2: 419,000 U.S. deaths.
Bear down and get at ‘er.
More recently,
Vietnam war:
U.S.involvement from March 1965 to March 1973. 8 years. 59 thousand U.S. fatalities. 7375 per year on average.
Their government said full steam ahead.
U.S. deaths from Covid19 so far: 2490.
Total freakout.
What am I trying to say?
I have no idea.
But it seems to me that the U.S. has become a society of pussies.
Meow.
There was no economic collapse until the U.S. freaked out over Covid.
Stop the U.S. panic over the covid situation and the economy recovers world wide.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
You first.
20 Trillion Dollar lawsuit filed against China.
That didn’t take long.
https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/covid-19-biological-weapon-alleges-us-lawyer-sued-china
The hypocrisy and irony in this is incredible.
“One of the more controversial TCM cures — and one officially endorsed by the Chinese government — is bear bile. As an alleged cure, “Tan Re Qing” is an injection the contains bear bile. It’s been used since February to treat severe and critical COVID-19 cases in the country.”
https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-treatment-china-touts-bear-bile-covid-19-cure-2946942
This is the link to the Chinese gov’t list of treatments, including Tan Re Qing, but I can’t read it, and the text body is an image so can’t copy/paste to a translator. Maybe someone here can read it?
http://www.xinhuanet.com/health/2020-03/04/c_1125661175.htm
@#314 Ustabe intelligent
”
Check YOUR link again.
LA County 2136 infections ….36 deaths
They have more people shot in one night than that.
#305 Jager on 03.30.20 at 8:44 am
Couldnt agree more. The Modern Monetary Theory is what got us where we are in the first place. Why to have recessions if all that needs to be done is for governments or their monetary arms to pump the markets with “liquidity”? Growing debt for generations to come and complete inability to sustain recessions when they do happen. Expecting citizens to be more fiscally prudent than the governments in the face of the devaluing money is naive. 11(!!!) years of economic expansion and two weeks into recession (ok everybody knows we are in it) huge percentage of people and businesses require handout not to go under!. Unbelievable
#303 TurnerNation on 03.30.20 at 8:35 am
—-
Umm there are 3M newly unemployed Canadians and they cant find anyone here to work on their farm? That’s pretty sad.
Bring on the TrumpCure! Hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin + high-dose Vitamin C!
For all you guys fighting over who has the scariest death stats, here’s one for ya. Everyone, living today,is going to die.
#313 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 9:42 am
@#300 Shoshin
“Germans wore grey. Biden wore blue.”
++++
No No. The Confederates wore grey. Biden wore blue.
+++++++++++++++++++
That was when Biden was co-piloting with Amelia Earhart on her first Antarctic moon landing. Good catch! Not many people know that one!
#317 JB on 03.30.20 at 9:52 am
The Russians own him! Trump is Putins little bitch!
What is he going to say to Putin stop your production? The Russians need money.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Get over it already. Even the people who pushed that hoax gave up on it. Try to find a new one.
Maybe something more believable, like COVID-19 escaped from the basement of the White House when Barron Trump’s 8th grade science fair experiment went horribly wrong.
Go with that. You’re welcome.
BTW, are you willing to pledge that if you get COVID you’ll refuse to take the TrumpPills?
If not your carrying your courage wrapped in wet Kleenex.
Ok, this is not the COVID-19 blog, but the impact on mindset from it clearly impacts real estate and finances. This morning we see the frightening and sad report that 32 of 65 residents in long term care in Bobcaygeon have been infected, and 9 of 32 have died.
https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/absolutely-dreadfully-sad-9-dead-at-bobcaygeon-nursing-home
This thing is nasty in that environment, and especially devastating to the residents, the families, and the caregivers affected. That spills over into the general population, and then we fight over tissue in the supermarket. Ryan wandered where we are in the curve, and perhaps not nearly as far along as we all would like.
Dog help us all!
#317 JB on 03.30.20
This JB guy should show his loyalty to the left by drinking fish tank cleaner and leaving a note saying Trump told him to. Perhaps as a martyr his death can have more political value than his life.
Italy February: “Hug a Chinese” campaign
Italy March: Now the European epicenter of the outbreak
https://summit.news/2020/03/12/mayor-of-florence-encouraged-italians-to-hug-a-chinese-before-coronavirus-pandemic-hit/
New York February: Mayor encourages people to hang out in enclosed places with strangers
New York March: Epicenter of US outbreak with over half the cases
https://mobile.twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1234648718714036229
To all the emotional lefties that voted in a drama teacher as a leader – who by the way is now pretending to be infected the message is clear…
#278 Sean on 03.29.20 at 11:25 pm
What happened to listening to people with actual expertise? You have stated you have none.
There’s plenty around, and they pretty much all agree.
————–
Problem being that the people with ‘expertise’ failed to predict/prevent the pandemic’s spread.. what on earth makes you think they are capable of predicting how it will end?
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/national/the-road-to-canadas-covid-19-outbreak-timeline-of-federal-government-failure-at-border-to-slow-the-virus/
CAD $ continues to lose strength. About -5% since this started.
That, plus discrepancy in market movements leaves all-CAN portfolios significantly lower than US.
Be careful with home country bias. It could wreck your future.
BTW our Federal Health Minister has a BA.. I’d trust Dr. Philpott a lot more at this point.
That Langley guy is my greatest fear. I’ve been living frugally for my entire adult life on the off chance I might die with some dignity when I can’t work any more. It won’t be the “rich” who pay for all this, it will be people like me, because I play it safe and follow the rules, and that makes me an easy target for vengeful, entitled pissants like Langley.
What?
Did you just say something?
Could you repeat it.
I couldn’t hear you over the top of this corona virus…
M45BC
What’s Inside the $2 Trillion Coronavirus Relief Package.
President Trump just signed into law a massive coronavirus relief package, pumping $2 trillion of stimulus into the economy to prevent a catastrophe. It’s hard to imagine just how much money is at stake, much less where it’s going and who is going to benefit. That’s why we created our latest visualization.
Individuals are set to benefit the most from the coronavirus relief bill, totaling an estimated $560 billion in direct cash payments to families and additional unemployment benefits.
Companies of all sizes will see substantial assistance from the federal government at about $500 billion. This includes special tax credits to keep people employed at distressed or closed businesses throughout the crisis.
Small businesses are set to benefit from $350 billion in guaranteed loans, which can be forgiven if they don’t lay people off.
Congress also appropriated money for a variety of different situations, including extra funding for hospitals, airlines and relief for student loans.
https://howmuch.net/articles/breakdown-coronavirus-2t-economic-stimulus
#326 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 10:27 am
@#314 Ustabe intelligent
”
Check YOUR link again.
LA County 2136 infections ….36 deaths
They have more people shot in one night than that.
OK, mea culpa and all that. Blame the lateness of the hour and alcohol. Or the web page layout. No need to call my intelligence out, eh?
The point I was making still stands, the emergence of many more younger victims both requiring hospitalization and/or dying seems to be mostly a North American thing.
So all the odious “let the old people die, I want to get back to work” tropes maybe need changing a bit.
…and still, nobody of celebrity/high visibility status has died from this.
Many have gotten it and recovered fully with no ill effects. Now, they’re starting to coin themselves “COVID survivors”.
It seems Trump is doing sensible things in attempting to keep the economy moving, talking with Russia about oil, trying to set a time for ending the social distancing.
While our jack-in-the box jumps up every once in awhile, waves his hands around, then dives back in his cubby.
#310 JB on 03.30.20 at 9:31 am
#302 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 8:25 am
Hmmm.
Death stats in New York State off the charts…with worse news to come…..
Anyone wanna guess how that will affect the New York Stock exchange today?
Trump.
Worse…… president….. ever…… in a crisis.
…………………………………………………………………….
Trump is a pile of dog turd no matter what, before he assumed office and long after he is dust.
Jesus people just listen to his ramblings about this crisis from February and all of March up until Friday and Sunday. He has mislead the nation, lied , played down the severity and infectious rate of this virus to play fiddle while Rome burns. Someone in the medical staff must have taken that impulsive twit by the ear said “Look A$$hole your president now act like one and don’t go off script”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wow. TDS running amok this morning.
Did anyone, anywhere in the world react better than Trump?
Pelosi, Schumer and Schiff were still playing around with the impeachment while Trump was moving on the virus.
Biden is still hiding in his bunker streaming daily updates of his exploits at the Battle of the Bulge.
Bernie is laying low, trying to figure out if he’ll get caught up in the Maduro drug running dragnet.
Trudeau was trying to overthrow parliament.
Yeah, we had a lot of high achievers on the git-go.
#320 Not So New guy on 03.30.20 at 10:06 am
I don’t know where I read it or heard it the last few days, maybe here.
If Kennedy had listened to the experts (the folks at the pentagon) regarding the Cuban missile crisis we would all be radioactive dust right now.
The experts always talk their books
****************************************
Kennedy wasn’t the hero that western propaganda preached.
Khrushchev’s goal was to have the US remove missiles pointed at the USSR and he succeeded. The Jupiter missiles in Turkey were worthless for defensive purposes. Their only value was in a first-strike offensive nuclear attack on the Soviet Union. As a result of the Cuban missile crisis negotiations U.S. missiles in Turkey and Italy threatening the USSR were removed. The story remained secret for decades.
#334 NFN_NLN on 03.30.20 at 11:27 am
#317 JB on 03.30.20
This JB guy should show his loyalty to the left by drinking fish tank cleaner and leaving a note saying Trump told him to. Perhaps as a martyr his death can have more political value than his life.
Italy February: “Hug a Chinese” campaign
Italy March: Now the European epicenter of the outbreak
https://summit.news/2020/03/12/mayor-of-florence-encouraged-italians-to-hug-a-chinese-before-coronavirus-pandemic-hit/
New York February: Mayor encourages people to hang out in enclosed places with strangers
New York March: Epicenter of US outbreak with over half the cases
https://mobile.twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1234648718714036229
To all the emotional lefties that voted in a drama teacher as a leader – who by the way is now pretending to be infected the message is clear…
………………………………………………………………
#317 JB on 03.30.20
This JB guy should show his loyalty to the left by drinking fish tank cleaner and leaving a note saying Trump told him to. Perhaps as a martyr his death can have more political value than his life.
Not quite connecting the dots on my comment but OK whatever….. Putin still runs the world in the background. You have never been to Russia have you? I have and I know how that country runs. The fact is Russia needs cash. The other fact is I’m not even close to left and a fine Barolo del Comune di Serralunga con Tenuta Cucco is better to biviri. Nobody has ever told me what to do from any government and neither will you. Ti ho lasciato il culo asino
#333 Steve on 03.30.20 at 11:24 am
This morning we see the frightening and sad report that 32 of 65 residents in long term care in Bobcaygeon have been infected, and 9 of 32 have died.
—————
To be balanced here: nobody enrolls elders in nursing homes expecting them to walk out again.
A little acceleration happened. There’s no easy way to die. Very likely a relief in many cases.
Along with a few others on this blog, I’d much prefer to be set adrift on an ice floe when the time comes.
#302 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 8:25 am
Hmmm.
Death stats in New York State off the charts…with worse news to come…..
Anyone wanna guess how that will affect the New York Stock exchange today?
Trump.
Worse…… president….. ever…… in a crisis.
================================================
Hmmm…”off the charts”? More like off the cuff. Need to give some context, like what are the normal mortality rates versus the present rate. C’mon now Fartzy, you’re better than this.
Dunno what will happen with markets in general, but as for today (Monday) as of noon in NY markets are all up modestly.
Not looking so good for CAD though.
#323 Sold Out on 03.30.20 at 10:12 am
#306 Dharma Bum on 03.30.20 at 9:08 am
Stop the U.S. panic over the covid situation and the economy recovers world wide.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
You first.
Gold. It’s responses like this that make the blog comments worth the price of admission, and then some.
#333 Steve on 03.30.20 at 11:24 am
Ok, this is not the COVID-19 blog, but the impact on mindset from it clearly impacts real estate and finances. This morning we see the frightening and sad report that 32 of 65 residents in long term care in Bobcaygeon have been infected, and 9 of 32 have died.
https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/absolutely-dreadfully-sad-9-dead-at-bobcaygeon-nursing-home
This thing is nasty in that environment, and especially devastating to the residents, the families, and the caregivers affected. That spills over into the general population, and then we fight over tissue in the supermarket. Ryan wandered where we are in the curve, and perhaps not nearly as far along as we all would like.
Dog help us all!
—
Oregon and Washington state was hard hit by covid many of the cases came from retirement residences and nursing homes, due to the stuff having par time positions and holding 2-3 different jobs in different nursing homes.
BORED! How can I properly panic if the stock market isn’t going up, or down, 12% in a day? I’ve been ruined, utterly and completely ruined for all future stock market panics.
“Your stocks lost 2% today? Geddeheckouddahere with your 2% loss!”
Bored …
329 T. on 03.30.20 at 10:48 am
Bring on the TrumpCure! Hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin + high-dose Vitamin C!
– – – – –
I heard it works best when mixed with carrot juice and listening to TS “you gotta calm down”
@#346 Billybob
“C’mon now Fartzy, you’re better than this.”
++++
What?
Everyone else is allowed to ride the Panic Band Wagon but me?
I can take the truth.
Is it because I stink?
Ontario destroyed all its N95 masks? Now who voted for Wynn and her wrecking crew. Don’t be shy.
https://www.toronto.com/opinion-story/9916365-ontario-stockpiled-55-million-face-masks-then-destroyed-them/
There is always Trudeau for guys who don’t like Trump. Have at er. He comes out at 11:15 edt every day, spouts some nonsense and then runs back in and hides.
His team tells us dont go to your cottage and then sends his wife and kids to his. And while you are locked down and that means you cant even go for a walk according to him.
Meanwhile, I will watch trump save millions.
Foot dragging FDA finally on board after Trump exposed them hiding a cure.
[URL unfurl=”true”]https://fortune.com/2020/03/30/malaria-drug-hydroxychloroquine-trump-coronavirus-fda-authorization/[/URL]
I got an interesting call from a 71 year old friend of mine last night.
He’s had some health issues in the past few years (heart related) and was getting really paranoid about catching C19 so he holed himself away in his apartment for around 10 days.
However, he started to get a fever and was also having some difficulty breathing so he called one of the nurses on the hotline number. 811 I believe.
The nurse suggested he stay put unless he started feeling worse, and to call 911 if he did.
A few hours later around midnight his condition was worsening so he decided to walk over to the Emergency at St Paul’s Hospital (2 blocks away).
Inside he was greeted by 4 or 5 staff. One handed him a mask. He looked around and noticed there was no one there besides the staff. Empty.
He was then asked numerous typical questions and then had his blood pressure taken. It was very high. He asked if his condition might be related to COVID19 and if he should be tested. They said no.
They kept asking him if he was experiencing chest pain. He kept telling them no. Eventually they got him set up with a bed in the ICU. There was one other person in a bed on the other side of the room. All the other beds were empty.
He also mentioned something that he thought was strange: only one of the doctors and nurses who came to see him was wearing a mask. Probably nothing, but it does seem a little odd considering the current situation.
Anyway, after chest xrays he came back to ICU where they kept him overnight and then discharged him the next day at noon (Saturday).
Does he have C19? Probably not. More likely an anxiety attack from watching Corona coverage 24/7 locked away in his apartment. But, if he does have it, we’ll never know.
The bottom line: I’ve been to St Paul’s a few times at that time of night. It’s always packed. Either this social distancing is working, and no one else is getting sick with anything on a Friday night in downtown Vancouver, or maybe people are too afraid to go to the hospital? Who knows …
Trudeau government yesterday evening issued the Canadian equivalent of “executive order” dealing with closing the US border for persons showing COVID19 symptoms.
There is a controversial exemption section.
https://orders-in-council.canada.ca/attachment.php?attach=38991&lang=en
#345 Sail away on 03.30.20 at 12:15 pm
#333 Steve on 03.30.20 at 11:24 am
This morning we see the frightening and sad report that 32 of 65 residents in long term care in Bobcaygeon have been infected, and 9 of 32 have died.
—————
To be balanced here: nobody enrolls elders in nursing homes expecting them to walk out again.
Damn straight, Sail. No one, with the exception of our host, tells it like it is quite way you do. An exceptional dose of truth for ppl. I applaud you.
(A note to others: if Sail’s comments sting, that’s because part of you knows he’s correct but a more stubborn and less mature part of you won’t let you admit it)
Granny and gramps in a petri-dish care home? If Covid didn’t get ’em, one of any multitude of other pathogens would have.
Imagine if families still cared for their elderly at home, like they still do in many parts of the world? Imagine how the economy, and our lives, would have fared.
On a related note, whatever happened to the news stories about most of the care homes in BC being owned and operated by mainland Chinese companies, and the poor care they were providing? Haven’t heard much about that lately.
Along with a few others on this blog, I’d much prefer to be set adrift on an ice floe when the time comes.
I’ve told my wife and kids many times that my end-of-days preference is to be eaten by ravenous timber wolves somewhere in the BC interior, leaning against a silvery birch trunk, in the dead of winter. To be able to look ’em in their yellow wolf eyes…
Come to think of it, that might be why I keep coming to the comments section.
During this lockdown, my wife asked from the other room if I had experienced any stabbing chest pains as if someone was sticking a needle in a voodoo doll.
When I said no, she asked, “How about now?”
—
not mine, but funny
#341 Sail away on 03.30.20 at 12:01 pm
…and still, nobody of celebrity/high visibility status has died from this.
Many have gotten it and recovered fully with no ill effects. Now, they’re starting to coin themselves “COVID survivors”.
It seems Trump is doing sensible things in attempting to keep the economy moving, talking with Russia about oil, trying to set a time for ending the social distancing.
While our jack-in-the box jumps up every once in awhile, waves his hands around, then dives back in his cubby.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Well, for starters celebrities are usually wealthy, and wealthy people have options and resources that the great unwashed lack.
One of the greatest songwriters ever is currently critically ill with probable Covid 19, and it doesn’t look to good for him.
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/john-prine-covid-19-symptoms-974909/amp/
#356 Attrition on 03.30.20 at 2:06 pm
On a related note, whatever happened to the news stories about most of the care homes in BC being owned and operated by mainland Chinese companies, and the poor care they were providing? Haven’t heard much about that lately.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
You mean these guys?
https://globalnews.ca/news/6613336/class-action-retirement-concepts-summerland-seniors-village/
So are we back to the 15th century now? Where is the plague? Where is the crop failures? Where is the miserable cold weather? One might becoming but the last two are becoming the norm. Speaking of the 15th century where is the gold and silver money? Lets do it right and go all the way.
@#358 Sold Out
Yep John Prine.
” It was Christmas…. in prison….. and the food was real goooood.
We had Turkey….. and pistols……. carved out a woooood
@#359 Sold Out
Yep a friend worked in management there.
He walked when the old Iranian owner sold the place….said the new owners were brutal.
#359 Sold Out on 03.30.20 at 2:24 pm
#356 Attrition on 03.30.20 at 2:06 pm
On a related note, whatever happened to the news stories about most of the care homes in BC being owned and operated by mainland Chinese companies, and the poor care they were providing? Haven’t heard much about that lately.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
You mean these guys?
https://globalnews.ca/news/6613336/class-action-retirement-concepts-summerland-seniors-village/
Ya, that.
That story is 28 days old now. Might as well be written in hieroglyphics.
Linkages. That’s what I wanna see.
#342 Orange Man….Orange on 03.30.20 at 12:04 pm
#310 JB on 03.30.20 at 9:31 am
#302 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.30.20 at 8:25 am
Hmmm.
Death stats in New York State off the charts…with worse news to come…..
Anyone wanna guess how that will affect the New York Stock exchange today?
Trump.
Worse…… president….. ever…… in a crisis.
…………………………………………………………………….
Trump is a pile of dog turd no matter what, before he assumed office and long after he is dust.
Jesus people just listen to his ramblings about this crisis from February and all of March up until Friday and Sunday. He has mislead the nation, lied , played down the severity and infectious rate of this virus to play fiddle while Rome burns. Someone in the medical staff must have taken that impulsive twit by the ear said “Look A$$hole your president now act like one and don’t go off script”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wow. TDS running amok this morning.
Did anyone, anywhere in the world react better than Trump?
Pelosi, Schumer and Schiff were still playing around with the impeachment while Trump was moving on the virus.
Biden is still hiding in his bunker streaming daily updates of his exploits at the Battle of the Bulge.
Bernie is laying low, trying to figure out if he’ll get caught up in the Maduro drug running dragnet.
Trudeau was trying to overthrow parliament.
Yeah, we had a lot of high achievers on the git-go.
………………………………………………………………….
No TDS here just that I know what he is and can recognize his true persona. I have made a lot of money and some outstanding stock purchases because of the Orangemans irrational antics in the White House. Anyone who can read the conman knows what his moves are for the most part. Sometime I miss a good buy because he zings when we anticipate a zag but that is his nature is an egotistical bizarre narcissistic whack job. When it comes down to his flagrant lies that cost lives you have to draw the line. Look close my friend and read what the Orangeman says every time. Just go back to his earliest comments about the corona virus. His words, not mine, not anyone else’s words just his statements that are now his facts and compare them to the real world’s facts. Here is todays White House transcripts for your reading. Now go back to January and start going through all of them. Make your own mind up then.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-3/
#333 Steve so 15% of fatals in this country occurred in one location place? Statistically…
What are they telling us/what are they not telling us.
#353 not 1st on 03.30.20 at 1:31 pm
His team tells us dont go to your cottage and then sends his wife and kids to his. And while you are locked down and that means you cant even go for a walk according to him.
———
My Sister lives in cottage country, she told me last week that the cottages are full out her way.
Peeps are bugging out!
Here’s an example of a CEO with a conscience. Taking a severe pay cut to continue to pay staff through the crisis. We need more leaders in Capitalism like this guy.
https://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2020/03/30/columbia-sportswear-ceo-tim-boyle-takes-pay-cut.html
This picture looks almost as good as some streets in old port Monreal
Only history in Canada is Nuvel France/ The rest is 2 x 4
No wonder Quebec wish to get out.
Go Bombardier, make me some….
This virus pandemic has an upside: the level of co-operation is at increased level.
It also offers plenty of opportunities for everyone to practice kindness, caring, which can help to offset the fear that suppresses the immune system.
#354 Sammy Davis Jr on 03.30.20 at 1:43 pm
The bottom line: I’ve been to St Paul’s a few times at that time of night. It’s always packed. Either this social distancing is working, and no one else is getting sick with anything on a Friday night in downtown Vancouver, or maybe people are too afraid to go to the hospital? Who knows …
Inside he was greeted by 4 or 5 staff. One handed him a mask. He looked around and noticed there was no one there besides the staff. Empty.
====================
Empty?
Yep…..not surprised.
IMHO we are being scammed in what is a bad Sci -Fi “B” movie.
I’m sure there are many millionaires who started digging ditches. Complaining because someone is
1) smarter than you
2) works harder than you
3) gets luckier than you
Is really extreme bitterness or maybe much worse like a form of depression. Just because you’re upset doesn’t it make wrong for the rest of us who are smart, work 80 hours a week and then invest.
If you have a great business idea you need to share it. Maybe you find a rich investor here who helps you make it work. Then you can be rich and invest in someone else.
Or you can stay home and cry in your basic universal income government made cornflakes.
Unless the government desires if too Ricky to make that day. Then you have an empty bowl.
And that’s called communism.
They already gave up on that one. People prefer a kleptomaniac maniac sociopath like Putin to communism.
Read a book, stop whining.
Which is the better response:
Trump:
Feb. 2: “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. … We can’t have thousands of people coming in who may have this problem, the coronavirus. So we’re gonna see what happens, but we did shut it down, yes.”
Trudeau:
Trudeau and federal officials argue border controls might stigmatize some Canadians and upset China.
Feb. 1: Justin Trudeau speaks at large Lunar New Year celebrations in Toronto and addresses COVID-19 outbreak: “There is no place in our country for discrimination driven by fear or misinformation,” Trudeau says. “This is not something Canadians will ever stand for.” Ottawa sends 16 tonnes of personal protective equipment to China in February on 4th.
There is hope and there will always be hope. British Colombia and Washington state appear to be in control as their infection rate is near 1.00 or the growth factor or the R0. We should follow their example or I think citizens should not go near people. Staying home is being a hero at the moment. My wife works at Sick kids and one of her supervisors was tested positive but we have been isolated for 12 days so far and no symptoms and potentially saved someone’s life. I am discouraged by seeing so many people outside when I go for a run on Queens Quay. I guess I am taking a chance running outside but the rules say if I am well I can do with distancing.
I used to refer to Korea and China’s numbers but now we have our very own doing the right thing, let’s go BC!.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Banks are looking at the negative interest rates. I heard RBC is testing negative interest rate environment, would you believe it Garth in your life time you would see negative interest rate for the first time?
Canadian crude is worthless. It was never about the environment but the cost of extracting was not profitable. Garth, do you think the Social Credit Party will come back?
@imgonnabesick
“You are completely full of it Vicguy”
You wish. Locally we stopped testing people calling 811 that can self isolate to the best of my knowledge they aren’t counted as presumptive unless a GP has diagnosed them as one. So we aren’t properly tracking community spread. That may change as testing procedures change based on how many can be feasibily tested. The priority is testing those that need to come into a hospital.
Regarding the mask rationing… Ask any island health employee. Easily verified.
We are no where near peak.
That second guy sounds like a gem.
They overbid on overpriced houses, and buy SUVs, gadgets, vacations, and takeout ever day, but it’s ‘the riches’ fault they have no savings.
The 800k/yr doc lives paycheque to paycheque is he rich according to 2nd guy I wonder?
I make less than 100k/yr, have savings, and don’t live paycheque to paycheque so I’m probably too rich for that government pogey, right?
Living paycheque to paycheque has nothing to do with income.
#292 alf on 03.30.20 at 2:29 am
#111 Grunt on 03.29.20 at 3:41 pm
There needs to be a future bylaw for grocery & pharma store aisles. They aren’t wide enough. Folks are still passing down too close together. If you qualify as a grocery or pharmacy outlet there should be a minimal legal distance between the aisles.
Easy solution. Remove all food-like products leaving only real food. Tons of freed up space.
————————————————————–
Most of the things people need week to week are on the outside walls of the store. Much healthier.
Rarely do you need to shop the inner isles. I go into the store, make a right, pick up my fruits and veggies, then the meats, then the dairy products and lastly the bakery products, and of course the newspaper.
#299 Renter’s Revenge! on 03.30.20 at 8:17 am
#285 Cowman on 03.30.20 at 12:47 am
You have a horseshoe up your ass and 100 years worth of living expenses saved in cash. Why are you asking for investment advice?
—————————————————
My thoughts exactly.
#318 Helen McGill on 03.30.20 at 9:55 am
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/covid-19-renters-april-1
Get ready, it’s coming. April 1st. KaBlammo. 800,000 broke Canadians can’t pay rent and won’t. Everything discussed up till now is baby farts.
—————————————————————
Yep. And thousands of landlords will go bankrupt and the banks will be the new landlords. Will be interesting to see how that works out.
#319 Del
Alas I think are main issue is that we are just human and being a herd animal it does not take much to get us spooked.
Del
—————————————————————-
The main issue as I see it is that our health care system was not prepared for something like this and as a result the extreme measures. This will turn out to have the most disastrous consequences to our economy ever and there are people who will need to answer some very tough questions. Unfortuately, in government, there is rarely any accountability.
Everybody will say they acted according to the best advice of medical experts in order to save lives. Imagine the questions they’d be asked later if they didn’t. And everybody is doing more or less the same things. It’s the easiest way out of the dilemma. Except a few countries, like Mexico and Brazil. It will be interesting to see how it pans out for them.
China does not fool around. We put their Huawei ceo on house arrest and China locks down the world. By the way , where is my ankle bracelet ? People living in small apartments should be prioritized, not mansion dwellers with acres of grounds to roam. I might get antsy and choose to go hiking. What if I brush against someone? I need to be monitored…for the children . Forward Soviet.