Closer to the bottom

RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

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Having been through three bear markets over my investment career I can now spot clear and repeatable patterns of investor behaviour. Currently, investment decisions are being made on fear and emotion (based on what people see on the TV or read on their iPhones) rather than sound economic principles or any consideration of what the economy will look like in 12 to 18 months. Given all the uncertainty right now the markets are pricing in a protracted recession and that we’ll all be locked in our homes indefinitely, when in fact by Q4 and into early 2021, economic growth could be rebounding and potentially strongly.

Credit Suisse US GDP Forecast

Source: Credit Suisse

Here’s how the pattern generally plays out.

As the market steadily rises, like we saw over the last decade, this can lead to excessive optimism and greed taking over. During these periods many investors want to take on more and more risk as they get caught up in the euphoria of the strong market gains. Then as the economy/market begins to roll over the optimism quickly changes to anxiety and fear, then to panic and capitulation, and finally full-on depression.

You can basically map this out on a curve and I believe we’re getting close to the panic/capitulation/depression stage. And this is when markets typically bottom, providing the best opportunities and future returns. Side note: I hate talking about “opportunities” when there is so much human suffering right now, but I know we’ll come out of this and I still have to look after our client’s home down-payment funds, their kids’ education accounts, and their retirement nest egg.

So what does this look like?

Examples of this include things like “Ryan, this time it’s different”, “Ryan, this is going to be a depression”, “Ryan, I’ll never get back to where I was before it fell”. Or on CNBC when this week I saw a commercial hawking gold coins stating that this is the investment to own during pandemics and recessions. I heard these exact same statements and that stupid commercial back in 2008/09.

In 2008, during the financial crisis, people said the banks were going under and the next great depression was right around the corner. But it didn’t happen. The central banks and governments came to the rescue and implemented the measures needed to turn the economy around leading to one of the strongest bull markets in history (yes with a lot more debt but we’ll deal with that in a decade).

Today the problem is different in that it’s a health/pandemic scare, which will require a different set of solutions to the problem, but ultimately we’ll figure it out like we did during the financial crisis, 9/11, tech crash, Black Monday, wars etc.

So what I’m seeing on CNBC, and what I’m hearing from some investors and clients, makes me even more convinced we’re getting closer to the bottom in the markets (peak of infection rates?) and that the economy and markets will recover from this unprecedented and historic event.

Let’s revisit that roller-coaster of investor emotions Garth published here last week. Where do you think we are now?

Typical Investor Over a Market Cycle

Source: BMO
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

248 comments ↓

#1 trexx on 03.28.20 at 10:36 am

Cut the elderly a little slack …2 meter personnel spacing please

#2 Living and learning on 03.28.20 at 10:40 am

It looks like there may be a cure for CV19. It’s a combination of anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine and antibiotic azithromycin. If true, the pandemic could soon be under control. I believe that NY Governor Como has ordered a million doses. I think Garth is right that this will pass. Read this thread:

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1243731363003609095

#3 Lahdeedah on 03.28.20 at 10:43 am

@Garth (sorry Ryan), perhaps you could dedicate a post to talking about possibly refinancing one’s mortgage during this time, since the banks just cut rates down to 0.25%. Would be a good way to save money during this time.

#4 Blog Bunny on 03.28.20 at 10:46 am

Thank you Ryan and I hope that you are right. Eventually most of us probably will get the virus and most of us will recover. However, it is also time to make sure that our ”in case of emergency” documents are ready and up to date. Take care of yourself.

#5 Jake on 03.28.20 at 10:50 am

After last week’s 3 day historic bump following the previous historic selloff amid a high 80’s VIX reading which was just a few points off the GFC record high, I thought we were bottoming and starting on Hope.

I’m usually too early on these things but like you Ryan, I’m optimistic normalcy (with some tweaks) will soon return.

#6 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 10:51 am

“I hate talking about “opportunities” when there is so much human suffering right now, but I know we’ll come out of this”

————————

There’s always human suffering. We’re just having it jammed down our throats at the moment. Nothing special here. The great majority of a person’s life passes without suffering. It’s probably our due to have a little.

#7 not 1st on 03.28.20 at 10:55 am

What about Canada? A country with 10% of the population and 7% GDP of the US filed almost the same number of EI apps last 2 weeks.

US will bounce back that I have no doubt, but Canada is toast for much longer. With our debt to GDP ratio we have now joined honorary 3rd world status….again.

#8 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 03.28.20 at 10:56 am

Happy Housing Crash Everyone

Realtor shysters are in DENIAL that houses will go DOWN DOWN DOWN by 50%.

They will have no business lower commisions
Trade that audi for a hyundai or a BICYCLE

Down she goes bye bye real estate

#9 Doghouse Dweller on 03.28.20 at 10:59 am

Where do you think we are now ?
—————————————

Perpetual Recovery LA LA Land

#10 Andrew on 03.28.20 at 11:00 am

“I saw a commercial hawking gold coins stating that this is the investment to own during pandemics and recessions. I heard these exact same statements and that stupid commercial back in 2008/09.”

Um… how did gold perform after its initial dip during the recession in 08 and into the following decade… $800 to $1700? Would have been a nice cushion then for a couple of years allowing to rebalance into stocks.

Your post is textbook denial stage on the chart you posted. Be safe people. Make sure you’re paying attention when listening to people you consider what they need and want to happen. I don’t think we’re fixing this demand shock with any amount of liquidity.

Perhaps you’re right, I will take the other side of the trade for now. Good luck.

#11 Dave on 03.28.20 at 11:00 am

Tough to put the entire range of “red” emotions into a cycle where the market is moving incredibly fast over a short period of time. I know many that are still in denial, but others in fear/desperation mode. So many comments on social media that we’ll just get bailed out and everything will return to normal. I’m of the view, however, that this is going to structurally change the economy for generations to come. So many businesses all of a sudden seem unnecessary. That, coupled with a new frugal mentality similar to our grandparents, puts us collectively in a state of what I would deem as denial.

#12 ogdoad on 03.28.20 at 11:01 am

Ryan,

When you have a diversified portfolio that may be currently fully invested what do you advise one should do to take advantage of some buying opps without adding more cash to the portfolio? Do you sell big gainers? Or will the dividend producers be buying back shares at a deflated price?

#13 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 11:02 am

As far as the graph, I need to watch the sentiment of others because I’m all about the profitable niche. I’m assuming the US has passed the low but Canada will still go lower. And the US will recover amazingly… but Canada? Don’t see it overall but some sectors will do ok.

#14 Howard on 03.28.20 at 11:05 am

Sounds like you’re predicting the shortest bear market in history.

The massive up-days this past week are typical of bear market rallies. Same thing was observed during the Great Depression and the GFC.

#15 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 11:08 am

@2 Living and learning

The cold has never been out of control in any way. There has been an insane worldwide reaction to it, though.

#16 mnpr on 03.28.20 at 11:10 am

I am one of those people who I think took a fairly balanced approach to my life finances. I have “lived within my means” and have stood by amazed at the piling up of debt, expecting a day of reckoning to come. I expected that for capitalism to work, we had to have failures of individuals and businesses. I thought that 2008 was that day, but governments decided to reinflate the gasbag and keep the party going. I can only guess at why, maybe to stop mass riots and insurrection as a result of the economic hardship brought on by the reckoning? I don’t know, it doesn’t make sense. So today we are in a similar situation. Will governments let the system reachieve equilibrium, or will they reinflate it again and keep it going as it has been? I do not like to see people suffer but I also think people need to fully experience the consequences of their actions, and not be continually protected from them. Otherwise, the responsible ones are the ones who are left holding the bag, and realizing that borrowing and living off credit has been the correct way to function for a long time now.

This article today in the Globe seems to capture what has been happening for a long time now, and I think the grasshoppers (as opposed to the ants) shake their heads at the seeming injustice of it all. Have we been dupes all a long?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-coronavirus-has-shown-us-we-were-living-in-an-economic-fairy-tale/

#17 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.28.20 at 11:12 am

Well, I think most are at the Despondency stage…..
and yes, I’ve seen this all before over the past decades.

Thats why I dumped another 5k into my portfolio yesterday :)

…and more to shovel in over the next few weeks and months.

Gotta ignore the screaming crowds running past and walk knee deep into the bloodbath to wade upstream…..

#18 Shawn on 03.28.20 at 11:13 am

I’m noticing that many market indicators (breadth, MACD, RSI, # of new lows, action of leading sectors (tech & healthcare), USD etc. have flipped positive yet everyone is ignoring them because they’re in disbelief.

#19 Dead cat bounce on 03.28.20 at 11:15 am

We are getting close to bottom, people feel depressed but markets are not nearly there! you will have another Rally and then plop.
I like your optimism but I am not so sure.
Let’s recap some of the things said here over the years.
People have high debt loads
Government have high debt loads now add 132B wow!
There is zero savings
Over 50 percent live paycheque to paycheque
Most retirees have all their money tied up in their house.
You’re predicting a housing meltdown.
We will have two quarters of horrible earnings
Near zero interest rates
Large corporations like IPL pushed to the brink

So now 1,000,000 people and more living on $2,000 a month
People cannot pay rent nor mortgages nor car payments. More debt. Bank stress and reduced earning.

when this lock down ends in one or two months.
But what happens after?
Will the war be over and everyone wakes up and goes back to work?

I think it might be a few more months of stress until we fire up the economic engines. Then even more months of Debt and depressed people.

Yes stock market will hit bottom and then see a rise quickly back to January levels, then there will be another crash and I will call it the hangover crash as reality sets in about all the new debt and not everyone working and oil below zero.
Will everyone start travelling again?
Will people flock to the stores on pent up demand?
I just don’t know but this is far worst and recovery will be very slow.
Yes some industries will absolutely be higher
Many will be bankrupt especially small business
They are exhausted.
Pray that I am wrong.
Take the money.

#20 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.28.20 at 11:17 am

It is surreal.
Just a week ago, we had lunch in an upscale Chinese restaurant in Aberdeen Mall in Richmond.
Jam packed. Not a mask in sight.
Now most of the restaurants are closed. Take out only.
No wonder, people worry.

#21 Yukon Elvis on 03.28.20 at 11:19 am

I think that we will bounce along the market bottom for another month or two, then start a long slow recovery. But I think it will take a year or two for the markets to recoup the losses. Probably between despondency and depression right now.

#22 Stratovarious on 03.28.20 at 11:20 am

“We are closer to the bottom” you say. Well yes, YTD we are down a bit over 20% (S&P 500), which is “closer to the bottom”. However, there is a lot more to go. Why? Because this did not begin as a financial crisis, but a medical crisis. It stands to reason that the “bottom” will be achieved when the medical emergency is resolved. And we are a long way from resolving the medical emergency, irrespective of the sanitized data being reported by China. After all, “flattening the curve” means that the timeline is extended (time is the “x” axis), and the longer that patients die in the ICU, the longer demand destruction will continue. And as for Canada, with oil on its knees, real estate in trouble, and a rapidly deteriorating currency, I predict a longer recovery than in the US. However, by all means, keep hinting that now is the time to buy.

#23 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.28.20 at 11:31 am

Off I go on my daily hunt for the elusive toilet paper.
Wish me luck.

#24 Shawn on 03.28.20 at 11:31 am

Something else that is not being appreciated nearly enough is the amount of stimulus being injected. It is truly historic. It far surpasses the stimulus employed near the end of the GFC. The FED action alone is monumental.

It is roughly equivalent to WW2 spending relative to GDP.

#25 Shawn on 03.28.20 at 11:34 am

“Every day stand guard at the door of your mind.” – Jim Rohn

#26 cto on 03.28.20 at 11:36 am

#16 mnpr

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-coronavirus-has-shown-us-we-were-living-in-an-economic-fairy-tale/

What kind of people read the Globe???

Iv noticed that whenever i read a G&M article that says that the Canadian fundamentals are flawed and people are spending too much,…this “group” come out in the comments section and seem actually offended by such an article.
Who are these people!!!?

#27 There is no cure on 03.28.20 at 11:37 am

I wish people would stop putting links to possible cures
And news stories about cures. When I see front page news on the CBC then fine.
Right now doctors are trying different things in different people that’s all.

Do you really think twitter knows more then top notch journalist from around the world?

#28 Shawn on 03.28.20 at 11:37 am

I’m noticing that US tech (and tech globally) is actually increasing in relative strength vs the S&P500.

The relative strength of the S&P500 has increased vs international markets.

The leaders of the next cycle are emerging.

#29 cto on 03.28.20 at 11:40 am

Is the Globe generally a Liberal paper ….with readers that have been living their lifestyles based on high leverage???
You know…the gold chain rock-star types,.. the ones that go to the Real Estate seminars and conventions staring Pitbull???

#30 Cabbagetown Carly on 03.28.20 at 11:42 am

Across Canada, civil servants are working all weekend preparing the rollout for the government support for families and businesses.

Tom Parry of CBC radio news this morning just after 11 a.m. said it best:

“If you see a civil servant, say thank you!”

https://www.cbc.ca/radio

What Garth Turner said yesterday about civil servants is divisive and despicable.

What a cheap shot, to try to demonize anyone in a time of national crisis, especially people working on the front line of government, which is always a complicated and imperfect reality, mostly because it reflects all of us and the complicated country we share.

Garth, you are better than this. You should apologize, now.

Then let’s all move forward, together.

“Service Canada” locking its doors to citizens in need. You support that? – Garth

#31 conan on 03.28.20 at 11:43 am

#13 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 11:02 am

The American response to Covid has not been good. Wait 2 weeks and you will see.

#32 Flywest29 on 03.28.20 at 11:43 am

#25

I wish people would stop putting links to possible cures
And news stories about cures. When I see front page news on the CBC then fine.
Right now doctors are trying different things in different people that’s all.

Do you really think twitter knows more then top notch journalist from around the world?

“Top notch journalists”. That’s pretty funny. The people who on a daily basis 24/7 scaring the hell out of the population. Ya that’s top notch journalism.

#33 Trojan House on 03.28.20 at 11:43 am

Watching Trudeau now. Interestingly no announcement on at least the postponement of the carbon tax. Nothing. No MSM reporters even asking about it. He keeps talking about them doing everything to help people. Seems to me postponing the next hike in the carbon tax (on April 1st) would also help.

#34 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 11:43 am

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.28.20 at 11:31 am

Off I go on my daily hunt for the elusive toilet paper.
Wish me luck.

—————

Good luck!

I have lots at the plantation if you want to swing by. Business as usual here.

#35 Andrewski on 03.28.20 at 11:44 am

Great analysis Ryan.
It’s something special to watch the TP hoarders, AKA as Covidiots, stock up.
Great to see that Costco will not accept any returns.

#36 MF on 03.28.20 at 11:57 am

We are only at fear.

There is no good news with respect to the virus, especially in the us right now.

My question is how can anyone still believe the debt issue is a decade away considering we just spent almost 100 billion in one week (2 trillion in the US)? That’s the problem, the debt issue just got brought forward by a decade.

After the last ten years of debt accumulation and rising markets, it would be difficult to assume the same will happen in the next ten years also.

MF

#37 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 12:00 pm

#31 conan on 03.28.20 at 11:43 am
#13 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 11:02 am

The American response to Covid has not been good. Wait 2 weeks and you will see.

——————

Remember you predicted the Russian thing would remove Trump?

Remember you predicted impeachment would remove Trump?

Predictions. All the same. ‘Wait, will, would, could, should’. Never ‘is’.

#38 Tony on 03.28.20 at 12:00 pm

Re: #19 Dead cat bounce on 03.28.20 at 11:15 am

A three stage bear market like the bear markets of the past. I put the odds at near zero of that ever happening. Expect the unexpected because that’s the new norm.

#39 Stoph on 03.28.20 at 12:04 pm

The market freefall was caused by fear and panic, now the sudden rise up is fulled by greed and a knowledge that markets will eventually recover.

#40 Gregg in Victoria on 03.28.20 at 12:05 pm

Honest question, Ryan. Did you (or should I) rebalance your clients back to the 60 / 40 mix on the new lows this week?

It would involve selling a lot of the safe stuff and buying a lot of equities.

I am sure it will seem like a genius move a year from now.

#41 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 12:07 pm

It’s worth remembering that spread of the cold does not represent danger. Red dots and increasing numbers mean nothing.

In most cases, as Attrition said before, this just means the capability for testing is expanding.

Everyone’s going to get the cold. Suck it up, buttercup.

#42 Yukon Elvis on 03.28.20 at 12:09 pm

This: All the billions of dollars being created out of thin air have to go somewhere. This money will not just disappear, it will find its way into the markets, hence a recovery. Debt ? Higher taxes , low interest rates, and inflation will take care of that. Carry on.

#43 Dee on 03.28.20 at 12:12 pm

While Trudeau and his media destroy our economy with their message of FEAR… I have 2 friends in BC who both need cancer treatments NOW but can’t get them because Trudeau picks a coronavirus life/death over every other disease people need help for. It’s no wonder so many emergency wards in Canada say they are very quiet right now. Empty beds tied up waiting for what?? While people who need help for cancer can’t get it. How will our economy ever pick up when our leader hides in his cabin while we are all left to fight for food and money and health care??

#44 Stoph on 03.28.20 at 12:16 pm

Ryan: what’s the best way to invest during times with so much volatility in the markets? What about using dollar cost averaging? Garth has spoken out against it in the past, arguing that the opportunity cost of cash being idle is too high. With so much volatility though, it doesn’t seem prudent to invest large amounts of cash all at once.

#45 TrendIsYourFriend on 03.28.20 at 12:19 pm

#19
#21
I am kinda same view, being one of those “men who stare at charts” 3rd week of Feb went to cash in investment accounts and puts in my trading account because of the market breadth indicators I watch.
This, according to WSJ article I saw on twitter, “new bull market” last week is probably just a strong bounce.
Those who know what “bullish percent index” is, are like me, at first surprised that $BPSPX is almost at pre-crash levels, percentage of sp500 stocks on a buy signal.
But…
What about other breadth measurements? Nope.
We haven’t started bottoming yet, look at the VIX. Market in green and strong moves up, yet VIX not buying it. Remember that we can still go down even if VIX starts its descent.
Tops are processes, so are the bottoms. We had V shape recovery in 2019, and who knows, we may get it this spring too, but markets are forward looking machines. In 2019 we didn’t have recession on the horizon. Now we may get one and old school tells us how markets dive months ahead of recessions, and recover well ahead of them.
This time may not be different despite FED going all in and buying ETFs like BOC.

#46 Quintilian on 03.28.20 at 12:20 pm

“Currently, investment decisions are being made on fear and emotion (based on what people see on the TV or read on their iPhones) rather than sound economic principles”

I don’t think so Ryan.

It is the professional traders that make the big moves, not mom and pop.

The economy was starting to deteriorate long before COVID.

The economy was running on plastic, consumers were tapped out, now the governments will be tapped out and will be running the money printing presses full speed ahead. The rest is history.

Having said that, I will remain debt free, and now forced to stay invested.

#47 TrendIsYourFriend on 03.28.20 at 12:30 pm

Just to clarify my previous post, “I got out at top”:
Yes, I did, but I was also “kicked out of the market” few times before that, just to get back in, on all those corrections we had.
That’s fine, better safe than sorry. Technical analysis is not the magical, forecasting tool, I paid my education thinking it was.

#48 Debtslavecreator on 03.28.20 at 12:35 pm

Despondency now
Next 5-10 days should be the max point of opportunity for a long term investor
Great equity opportunity come next 2 weeks
Oh yeah baby

#49 Good Management is Essential on 03.28.20 at 12:39 pm

While I am not a client of the Great and Good Garthopolis and his Merry Band of chiseled, coiffed, rippling, and testosterone-infused, manly minions, I am blessed with a good portfolio manager at another firm. Said manager is also chiseled, coiffed, rippling, and testosterone-infused and she too does a hell of a good job managing my portfolio.

Despite all the perturbations, promulgated for the most part by the other-than-human bozos at BNN et alia, I remain confident. It helps, I suppose, that I spend less than half an hour a day paying any heed to the news cycle. Key word here is cycle, as with most things in life. Things come and things go.

Numbers: my portfolio is down about 17 percent representing a total loss of several hundred thousand dollars. When we come out of this kerfuffle, resuming a more-or-less steady state, I expect I will be back where I was at the end of January 2020. As our esteemed and well-dressed blog host says, from there on, there will likely be continued growth. I also agree that the rich are going to get richer still and fewer people will be able to join their ranks.

What is my secret? I know when, mostly, to shut up and listen. I know to hire good people to manage things I would need to spend a lifetime doing and most likely finding out I wasn’t really cut out for it.

If anyone doubts the need for good financial management such as that offered by Garth RJ Turner and his very capable associates, then perhaps you could consider this example to clarify why you do need it. You go to a good restaurant, you order a good meal, eat the meal, and rave about how good it was. At what point did you have to go into the kitchen to help cook the meal? Exactly. Stay out of the kitchen. Let the professionals do their job of giving you what you are paying for. Bad food is bad for you but not nearly as bad as bad advice. Shun fools, embrace the wise (and pay them).

#50 Gordon on 03.28.20 at 12:40 pm

Many columns and comments lamenting the lack of savings, rampant consumerism and high personal debt.

The flip side is this is what powers a booming economy, which is never mentioned or acknowledged.

These profligates are what pump up equities.

#51 wallflower on 03.28.20 at 12:40 pm

Would be interesting to know the impacts on immigration 2020 and 2021 and the economic consequences of those.

#52 Damifino on 03.28.20 at 12:44 pm

The “Typical Investor Over a Market Cycle” Graph has always seemed too asymmetric to me. It has only five rising states followed by eight falling states. Messy.

I think ‘denial’ and ‘fear should be combined into simply ‘fear’ while ‘desperation’ and ‘panic’ should become simply ‘panic’. ‘Capitalization’ should be done way with altogether. Thus, we’d have only five states opposing each other across the rising and falling slopes:

Euphoria – Anxiety
Thrill – Fear
Excitement – Panic
Optimism – Despondency
Hope – Depression

The points of maximum buying, selling, and opportunity would still remain the same. My 2 cents worth.

#53 mark on 03.28.20 at 12:44 pm

No way near bottom, says Larry Berman.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/larry-berman-s-top-picks-march-26-2020-1.1412883

#54 Damifino on 03.28.20 at 12:45 pm

Oops… make that ‘capitulation’ not ‘capitalization’.

#55 Brian Ripley on 03.28.20 at 12:50 pm

“The economy was starting to deteriorate long before COVID.” #46 Quintilian on 03.28.20 at 12:20 pm

Correct.

My post yesterday: http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/deflation-prologue

As Asset Prices Drop
Investment Spending Drops
The Savings Rate Rises
Debt Delinquencies Rise
The Credit Boom Turns to Bust

This is global.

#56 Dr V on 03.28.20 at 12:52 pm

I did some purchases over the last couple of weeks, but nothing in this recent run-up. From the few sources I’ve checked, the various measures of value do not signal a strong buy until the markets are about 30% off
their record highs, and even at that, those measures
may be considerably different in a few months after re-adjusting to new data.

So 2 of my 3 larger purchases worked out very well. It wasn’t so much timing as it was the value at the time of purchase. I will continue to watch closely. I will also
continue with smaller regular purchases but may re-
allocate and increase those a little.

Business is very slow, and we have laid people off, but I want to check about the wage subsidy for two of our star employees. I’ve got lots of cash so my family is fine. I don’t need to get paid for months, letting me invest in my workers.

#57 oh bouy on 03.28.20 at 12:53 pm

@#6 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 10:51 am
“I hate talking about “opportunities” when there is so much human suffering right now, but I know we’ll come out of this”

————————

There’s always human suffering. We’re just having it jammed down our throats at the moment. Nothing special here. The great majority of a person’s life passes without suffering. It’s probably our due to have a little.
_____________________

honestly never thought i’d consider you the voice of reason on here. kudos to you.

#58 Keyboard Smasher on 03.28.20 at 12:54 pm

Hello Mr. Fluenza.

What’s your take on the comparison chart tracking the progress of the crash occurring now relative to those in 1929 and 2008/2009?

We’re tracing nearly the same trajectory as the 1929 event, which would imply a 9-12 month correction with the S&P losing approx. 50% of its value.

Chart image linked here:
https://imgur.com/YFx8Tg5

#59 oh bouy on 03.28.20 at 12:55 pm

@#8 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 03.28.20 at 10:56 am
Happy Housing Crash Everyone

Realtor shysters are in DENIAL that houses will go DOWN DOWN DOWN by 50%.

They will have no business lower commisions
Trade that audi for a hyundai or a BICYCLE

Down she goes bye bye real estate
)__-______________________

kinda hope you’re right this time round’.
like to get a discount on a country abode.

#60 Don Guillermo on 03.28.20 at 12:56 pm

#281 OK, Doomer on 03.28.20 at 11:14 am
#248 WHAT? on 03.28.20 at 5:56 am
#59 Lefty on 03.27.20 at 4:48 pm
Tank or tankless water heater?
………………………………………………………………………………. New build or reno?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I’ve had both. Tankless is a cool idea, but very expensive and hot water takes FOREVER to get to the tap. The system went on us and cost $$$$ to fix. Plus you waste a lot of water waiting for the hot water to show up.
Tanks are energy inefficient, but cheap and hot water is there, NOW.
By the time you add up all the costs, tanks are cheaper, less hassle, simpler and you get hot water right away.
Sorry tankless guys, but sometimes the older tech is just better

******************************************

I find this topic timely and a little humorous.

We live half time in a modest 19-unit condo complex in the tropics. We just returned last week and are now in 2 weeks isolation.
Each unit was fitted with a small 40-liter propane fired HW tank. These have worked flawlessly considering most are exposed to the elements – heat and salt spray air. Our HW tank is the most exposed of all and was just replaced after 8 years of service. (cost approx. $200 installed – not bad).
Last season a handful of owners decided they were going to save the planet (our Van Island and Seattle folks – great people by the way) and install tankless HW heaters. They even went so far as to try to mandate this at the next AGM which was quickly shot down.
The comedy of events that took place over the next few months was priceless. The ones that worked best needed to run water at high volume to kick in the heating. Water pressure, gas pressure (and most other utilities) in the tropics tend to be erratic at best so setting these up was a nightmare for the local installer. Then they have batteries that fail quite regularly. All in all the experiment failed. As for saving the planet, water is more precious than gas down there and their water consumption went off the charts.
The last one to fail exploded in our courtyard and had hot water and steam spraying everywhere. It could have been a scene out of Herman Wouk’s “Don’t stop the Carnival”. Unfortunately, I don’t have the writing skills to do the story justice.

Anyways, a little long winded for me. Isolation time you know. Stay safe all and let’s beat this virus.

#61 Penny Henny on 03.28.20 at 12:56 pm

Not so much a comment but more of an observation.
For those fearing catastrophic outcomes from this virus. Where personal feelings of anxiety leads to depression and terror. I imagine that’s how Greta feels about climate change.

#62 Bobby13 on 03.28.20 at 1:00 pm

Yes, the stock market will roar back, the last few people working will pay higher taxes, the central banks quest to take over the populace will have fully succeeded they will award the top government employees who helped them along to remain at the The cost of living will push more people into the street. The dollar will continue to lose value.

No you won’t beat market inflation and fees while you tell yourself you somehow are.

You can only steal from Peter to pay Paul until Peter is out of money as well.

Cheers.

#63 DON on 03.28.20 at 1:09 pm

#36 MF on 03.28.20 at 11:57 am

We are only at fear.

#39 Stoph on 03.28.20 at 12:04 pm

The market freefall was caused by fear and panic, now the sudden rise up is fulled by greed and a knowledge that markets will eventually recover.

#46 Quintilian on 03.28.20 at 12:20 pm

The economy was starting to deteriorate long before COVID.

#45 TrendIsYourFriend on 03.28.20 at 12:19 pm

#19
#21
I am kinda same view, being one of those “men who stare at charts” 3rd week of Feb went to cash in investment accounts and puts in my trading account because of the market breadth indicators I watch.
This, according to WSJ article I saw on twitter, “new bull market” last week is probably just a strong bounce.
Those who know what “bullish percent index” is, are like me, at first surprised that $BPSPX is almost at pre-crash levels, percentage of sp500 stocks on a buy signal.
But…
What about other breadth measurements? Nope.
We haven’t started bottoming yet, look at the VIX. Market in green and strong moves up, yet VIX not buying it. Remember that we can still go down even if VIX starts its descent.
Tops are processes, so are the bottoms. We had V shape recovery in 2019, and who knows, we may get it this spring too, but markets are forward looking machines. In 2019 we didn’t have recession on the horizon. Now we may get one and old school tells us how markets dive months ahead of recessions, and recover well ahead of them.
This time may not be different despite FED going all in and buying ETFs like BOC.
*******

I’ll go with fear. It is human nature we a dealing with.

The last GFC took months to unfold. New COLD War between China and US to factor in. Can’t have all that manufacturing in China. The vast majority of people are on edge with the thought of losing vulnerable relatives. Things that really matter and are life changing.

China’s numbers are being challenged. I have made a point to not buy via amazon.

I have made the choice to buy local (even if it costs me more) to support local small businesses. They will need the helping hand to get back up and running.

#64 joe on 03.28.20 at 1:10 pm

Maybe a 24 hour schedule would help the situation.Three 8 hour shifts for all of the economy would allow for economic activity to be spread out and improve social distancing.

#65 Ryan Lewenza on 03.28.20 at 1:13 pm

not 1st “What about Canada? A country with 10% of the population and 7% GDP of the US filed almost the same number of EI apps last 2 weeks.

US will bounce back that I have no doubt, but Canada is toast for much longer. With our debt to GDP ratio we have now joined honorary 3rd world status….again.”

Disagree with this. Our economy is highly connected/correlated (0.87 correlation with US GDP) with the US economy so if they recover so will we. Also our FEDERAL debt is very low at around $700 billion or 40% of GDP so we can add stimulus and spend some money right now. Until the energy sector rebounds Canada should grow slower than US but it’s far from “toast”. – Ryan L

#66 conan on 03.28.20 at 1:16 pm

#37 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 12:00 pm
I predict a lot of things that are right. More than you do.

Now that you have decided to be the site’s troll. Are you ever going to write something decent?

#67 Kilt on 03.28.20 at 1:20 pm

“Ryan, this is going to be a depression”

First question: Why is it not a depression? By the technical term, we are entering one (job losses, bankruptcies, duration) . The only reason it won’t fit the classical definition is due to governments throwing money out the window to tide things over.
Companies that have been over-leveraged for years will not go bankrupt, but maybe they should.
And what do we learn in the end. That no one needs to save for a rainy day because the government will bail us out. I can run my company off a LOC because when things go bad I can get the government to subsidize our payroll. We can continue to run deficits even in the good times because people voting don’t give a fudge about debt.

Second question: How do trading algorithms fit into the curve. The curve is based on emotion. How much of the market now is HFT based on algorithms? Smaller markets like the TSX may still run on emotion, but what I am seeing in many stocks is “deer in the headlights” still. Clever folks are putting in bids at 10% below ask, waiting for the first panic seller to come along and sell at market. Not sure if that keeps us at fear or panic on the curve.

Last Questions: What is your take on Canadian Reits. HR with a 16.4% dividend seems too good to be true. I haven’t been bullish on Reits because I believe rents (residential, retail and industrial) are already too high, rates can only go up, debts and payout ratios also high. Do you anticipate a resetting of dividend payouts in the next 6-12 months. Or is this a sector where you think things will get back to normal again.

Have a nice weekend.

Kilt

#68 akashic record on 03.28.20 at 1:21 pm

Let’s revisit that roller-coaster of investor emotions Garth published here last week. Where do you think we are now?

—-

Better yet: where do you think the MARKET is now on the roller-coaster?

#69 theoryAndPractice on 03.28.20 at 1:21 pm

The lesson from chart is sell it in euphoria and buy it in depression. if you are fully invested there is no other way I can think of … Else it is waiting game to square1

#70 Ryan Lewenza on 03.28.20 at 1:22 pm

Dave “I’m of the view, however, that this is going to structurally change the economy for generations to come. So many businesses all of a sudden seem unnecessary. That, coupled with a new frugal mentality similar to our grandparents, puts us collectively in a state of what I would deem as denial.”

This supports my case. Sure there will be some lasting changes from this event (ie the cruise industry) but I don’t buy the argument that whole industries will be lost and it will bring on a whole new chapter of frugality. Time heals all wounds. I bet you by the end of this year you and I are looking at travel sites for our next vacation. – Ryan L

#71 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 1:25 pm

#66 conan on 03.28.20 at 1:16 pm
#37 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 12:00 pm

I predict a lot of things that are right. More than you do.

Now that you have decided to be the site’s troll. Are you ever going to write something decent?

——————-

I try not to predict. Usually act and comment on my reason for the action. Except today where we were asked our thoughts.

How am I a troll? You say doom, I say nope, and point out a few of your past incorrect predictions.

#72 John in Mtl on 03.28.20 at 1:29 pm

@ #45 TrendIsYourFriend on 03.28.20 at 12:19 pm

#19
#21

I am thinking on pretty much the same lines. The Fed injected Trillions & worked out a ton of plans, the markets went up. But the next day, many were questioning if this was the right move & started doubting. The markets went back down some. In the meantime, those “in the know” probably made out like bandits, taking advantage of the “irrational exuberance” following the Fed’s plans. Rollercoaster ride for a good while is on the horizon.

I’m on the fence on pulling everything out for at least 6 months & going to cash. I think there will be a short but painful recession. Meantime, will they paper over the problems (as they did in 2008) or repair/rethink a few things this time around?

Hopefully we won’t run out of food. Its one of the only things keeping societies peaceful at the moment, despite the anxiety that the overindebted and overleverage feel.

Still, I can’t help but wonder if this pandemic event is not a diversion for something else going on… remember, China is playing the long game, and their aim is to become the supreme master. Crony capitalism has given them the means to achieve this. Everything is manipulated.

#73 Quintilian on 03.28.20 at 1:33 pm

“Until the energy sector rebounds Canada should grow slower than US but it’s far from “toast”

Ryan, things have changed. The energy sector is on the mat. When it rebounds, it will be like a spectacular prized fighter but punch drunk.

The savings grace may be a 60 cent CAD, but that will come at a cost.

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.28.20 at 1:33 pm

@#30 KrabbyTown Karly
“What a cheap shot, to try to demonize anyone in a time of national crisis, especially people working on the front line of government…”
++++

Its not hard to ‘demonize” when the lazy slackers dont show up to work and get paid regardless…

Fire them all and turn that dept over to the private sector to run it…for lower cost and higher efficiency.

#75 Ryan Lewenza on 03.28.20 at 1:33 pm

Keyboard Smasher “Hello Mr. Fluenza. What’s your take on the comparison chart tracking the progress of the crash occurring now relative to those in 1929 and 2008/2009?

We’re tracing nearly the same trajectory as the 1929 event, which would imply a 9-12 month correction with the S&P losing approx. 50% of its value.

Chart image linked here:
https://imgur.com/YFx8Tg5sher

First, if i had a dollar for every time I’ve been called influenza I would be a rich man. Second, I’m not a fan of analogs. I could put this bear market over almost any bear market and draw similar conclusions. I’ve also seen an analog of this bear market to the ’87 crash, which presents a more bullish case. Also that was a great depression brought on by bank failures, which is not in the cards for this one. So this isn’t the next great depression! – Ryan L

#76 Marco on 03.28.20 at 1:34 pm

this society is built on exploitation. The poorest lift heaviest loads

#77 Ryan Lewenza on 03.28.20 at 1:39 pm

Stoph “Ryan: what’s the best way to invest during times with so much volatility in the markets? What about using dollar cost averaging? Garth has spoken out against it in the past, arguing that the opportunity cost of cash being idle is too high. With so much volatility though, it doesn’t seem prudent to invest large amounts of cash all at once.”

I agree with Garth that generally you want to get the money invested and play the long game. However, in bear markets like this I do like dollar cost averaging new funds since you never know for sure when the market will bottom. – Ryan L

#78 Ryan Lewenza on 03.28.20 at 1:42 pm

Gregg in Victoria “Honest question, Ryan. Did you (or should I) rebalance your clients back to the 60 / 40 mix on the new lows this week? It would involve selling a lot of the safe stuff and buying a lot of equities. I am sure it will seem like a genius move a year from now.”

Yes! We’re still down 25%+ and I do believe one year out you’ll be happy you did. – Ryan L

#79 Don Guillermo on 03.28.20 at 1:43 pm

#37 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 12:00 pm
#31 conan on 03.28.20 at 11:43 am
#13 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 11:02 am
The American response to Covid has not been good. Wait 2 weeks and you will see.
——————
Remember you predicted the Russian thing would remove Trump?
Remember you predicted impeachment would remove Trump?
Predictions. All the same. ‘Wait, will, would, could, should’. Never ‘is’
****************************************
Denmark and Norway in lock down. Sweden is business as usual. It’ll be interesting to compare the two results after this is all over with.

#80 akashic record on 03.28.20 at 1:43 pm

#2 Living and learning on 03.28.20 at 10:40 am

It looks like there may be a cure for CV19. It’s a combination of anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine and antibiotic azithromycin. If true, the pandemic could soon be under control. I believe that NY Governor Como has ordered a million doses. I think Garth is right that this will pass. Read this thread:

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1243731363003609095

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-why-france-hiding-cheap-and-tested-virus-cure

#81 Renter's Revenge! on 03.28.20 at 1:44 pm

Does the cycle of emotions still apply when computers do most of the trading?

#82 John in Mtl on 03.28.20 at 1:44 pm


#63 DON on 03.28.20 at 1:09 pm

“… I have made the choice to buy local (even if it costs me more) to support local small businesses. They will need the helping hand to get back up and running.”

Exactly what I’m doing & have been doing for years.

Reuse, Repurpose, Repair, Buy Local and help the community grow strong and resilient. Bu LASTING QUALITY, not cheap crap.

#83 joblo on 03.28.20 at 1:44 pm

Trudope can come out of his Cuckoo clock every day and announce all the benefits his Lieberals concoct.

After 3 days no access online or phone and Service Cantnada shuts locations. U can’t get em.

Next announce the police and military? all because a guy in China ate a bat.

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.28.20 at 1:44 pm

@#43 Dee
“How will our economy ever pick up when our leader hides in his cabin while we are all left to fight for food and money and health care??”
++++

How dare you criticize Prime Minister ‘Wash Your Hands”.
He’s performing a valuable service even when he has very little to say…reminding us to “Wash your hands!”

All while daily announcing Billions more in taxpayer handouts to ensure the Conservative Party will inherit an ungodly financial mess when they eventually form the next govt.

#85 Stone on 03.28.20 at 1:46 pm

Hey Ryan, did you write a blog post today?

Sorry, I must have missed it. All I see is one commentary after another from some lonely, bored person with no real friends or life monopolizing this blog day and night called Sail Away.

#86 Faron on 03.28.20 at 1:48 pm

I think there are still a lot of surprises coming down the pipe. Thus, lacking information, there’s simply no calling the market. Everyone is and has been behind the curve on the pandemic side of this (others called the top on fundamentals long ago) and that means that any market movement is based on clawing at limited information and is thus meaningless in terms of projecting a bottom or a further drop.

If you have any faith that in a few years the market will have returned to pre-incident highs, then anytime is a good time to buy especially if you choose wisely. You may miss the max opportunity, but opportunity is here now with a 20% discount off of the peak.

I personally think that with the US still undergoing rapid infection and with key economic data still to come, that we are going to see a second breathtaking drop along with another spike in the VIX before a very slow return to normalcy.

The ongoing presence of the virus will keep us from getting back to normal quickly because the lockdown will have to last longer than anyone wants to acknowledge in order to prevent a resurgence of cases. Every day that the economy is frozen, the longer it takes for a return to normalcy and the more the V turns to an L.

Finally, that there are pundits calling bottom and people here clawing to get back in to buy tells me that there is still demand in the market meaning that capitulation has not arrived and that the bottom is still some time off in the future.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.28.20 at 1:49 pm

@#66 conan
“Now that you have decided to be the site’s troll….”
++++
No no no no.
I’M the sites’ official troll, just ask barkingblackdog.
Sail Away, while obviously hard working, is merely my impressive acolyte.

#88 Flop... on 03.28.20 at 1:50 pm

We have live-cams for just about everything else, so how long to we get live cameras out the front of supermarkets showing how bad the line-ups are…

M45BC

#89 Attrition on 03.28.20 at 1:54 pm

Madness.

Unprecedented economic pain and the human suffering and death it will cause, vs a nasty cold bug and the predictable, acceptable and containable human suffering and death it will cause.

Guess which one is far, far worse?

Problem is, we’re getting both and one was totally avoidable. Yet we opted in, demanded it even.

We chose economic pain and the erosion of rights and freedoms because, for some reason, turning rec centres into makeshift hospitals, and triaging the infected is beneath us. I suppose the photo ops wouldn’t represent the Canada we’re supposed to believe we live in.

I get that the markets will love this soon. But I don’t think quite yet. When a few neighbors loose their houses, and when I start to consider snapping them up at 2004 prices, that will represent the real bottom for me.

Maybe that’s the point of all this after all: consolidation.

#90 espressobob on 03.28.20 at 1:54 pm

Tough picking the bottom, have to admit. Since I suck at this aspect of investing it seems easier to pick entry points when things go south. Predetermined buy orders at a specific price.

Choose to do the opposite when markets are north by using sell orders for profit taking. Exit points if you want to call it that.

This has worked out just fine for the past 15 years.

#91 Howard on 03.28.20 at 2:06 pm

Singapore To Jail People For 6 Months For Standing Too Close To Strangers

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/singapore-jail-people-6-months-standing-too-close-strangers

Remember the “caning” brouhaha out of Singapore from, what, 20 years ago?

#92 BS on 03.28.20 at 2:08 pm

on CNBC when this week I saw a commercial hawking gold coins stating that this is the investment to own during pandemics and recessions. I heard these exact same statements and that stupid commercial back in 2008/09.

They were right back in 2008 just like they will be right today (about gold bullion, not their coins). When Lehmam collapsed in Sep 2008 gold was $900 US an oz. Three years later it was over $1800 US. Not a bad place to hide. Over the same time frame the S&P 500 was about even but with lots of volatility. Gold gold made a steady climb up until doubling. I expect to see gold double over the next 3 years. This time gold miners are cheap. In 2008 gold miners where triple the price compared to the gold price as they are today.

#93 Noend on 03.28.20 at 2:16 pm

The Bank of Canada -> QE with no limits!

Why?

There is no cash in the market.

#94 Ronaldo on 03.28.20 at 2:23 pm

#8 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 03.28.20 at 10:56 am
Happy Housing Crash Everyone

Realtor shysters are in DENIAL that houses will go DOWN DOWN DOWN by 50%.

They will have no business lower commisions
Trade that audi for a hyundai or a BICYCLE

Down she goes bye bye real estate
————————————————————
Totally agree Fartz.

#95 Marco on 03.28.20 at 2:23 pm

DEETED

#96 Leftover on 03.28.20 at 2:26 pm

Bottom seems to be:

Dow 20,000
TSX 12,000

…or thereabouts. There’s no rush however, these limits will occur regularly over the next few months.

#97 BS on 03.28.20 at 2:31 pm

#27 There is no cure on 03.28.20 at 11:37 am

I wish people would stop putting links to possible cures
And news stories about cures. When I see front page news on the CBC then fine.
Right now doctors are trying different things in different people that’s all.

Do you really think twitter knows more then top notch journalist from around the world?

FYI – CBC won’t report anything that makes Trump look good. You would think if there were treatments being tried in Canada CBC would be on top of it? Nope.

Coronavirus: Controversial malaria drug hydroxychloroquine tested at B.C. seniors’ home

The drug is being administered to all residents of the virus-stricken building known as “the lodge” at the care home, with the exception of those who opted out of the trial

The drug made international headlines this month when U.S. President Donald Trump touted it as a potential breakthrough treatment for COVID-19. The drug has shown promise in some small, early trials.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6744766/hydroxychloroquine-lynn-valley-care-centre-coronavirus/

#98 Don Guillermo on 03.28.20 at 2:36 pm

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.28.20 at 1:44 pm
@#43 Dee
“How will our economy ever pick up when our leader hides in his cabin while we are all left to fight for food and money and health care??”
++++
How dare you criticize Prime Minister ‘Wash Your Hands”.
He’s performing a valuable service even when he has very little to say…reminding us to “Wash your hands!”
All while daily announcing Billions more in taxpayer handouts to ensure the Conservative Party will inherit an ungodly financial mess when they eventually form the next govt.
************************************
Also, now that he’s self isolating he can truly be called “the smartest man in the room”.

#99 Tim on 03.28.20 at 2:37 pm

Easy peasy

Spy ES minimum 1550, time to purge

#100 SmarterSquirrel on 03.28.20 at 2:40 pm

Denial

#101 Ronaldo on 03.28.20 at 2:43 pm

#40 Gregg in Victoria on 03.28.20 at 12:05 pm
Honest question, Ryan. Did you (or should I) rebalance your clients back to the 60 / 40 mix on the new lows this week?

It would involve selling a lot of the safe stuff and buying a lot of equities.

I am sure it will seem like a genius move a year from now.
—————————————————————-
My 60/40 was down to 55/45 so I sold off some non performing bond fund and bought more equitites to bring me back to 60/40. I am betting that when things bounce back to even March 9th level, I will be sitting at 65/35 and now having to rebalance again. You could end up having to do this over and over again in this volatile market. Am thinking that you are probably just as well off to just let it balance itself out.

If you are sitting in a balanced mutual fund or ETF. Not much need to do anything imo. Let the managers do the balancing. That way you can just sit back, relax, and watch the show.

#102 Flop... on 03.28.20 at 2:45 pm

Flop’s Corona Virus song of the day.

The Police.

Don’t Stand So Close To Me…

M45BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KNIZofPB8ZM

#103 Federal Civil,Service last comment on 03.28.20 at 2:58 pm

Last kick at the can kicking public servants
Are you kicking the right people?

as per the labour code it is the employers responsibility to provide a safe work environment to its employees.
Again if nurses are not provided safe equipment to deal with the public they will not work.
I have seen nurses refuse to work.

As in the news today flight attendants are demanding protective clothing. Let’s see how that pans out.

Service Canada employees demanded protection from Convid. Their employer the Federal government closed the doors for failing to protect its employees and the general public.

https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/corporate/notices/coronavirus.html

All employees need to be protected, and people should stop jumping down anyone throat for standing up for their rights.

I stand by my comment no-one would work front lines with the public without protection.
Ask yourself why did the banks close their doors, because they could not protect their employees and general public as per the labour code.
Have a great day
Thanks for posting
Now you can go back to housing meltdown and optimistic market recovery.

My bank is open. Grocery store, too. Post office. Hardware store. Nobody is wearing gloves, masks or goggles. There are some plexiglass barriers, but that’s it. Surely Service Canada could figure things out rather than locking the doors. Common sense does not die just because you have a guaranteed government paycheque. – Garth

#104 akashic record on 03.28.20 at 3:01 pm

With plenty of cash at hand to invest, for me, financially, it would be best if the drop would continue to 2008 level. On the other hand, I am well aware how devastating would this be for so many people. It is a moral dilemma.

#105 drydock on 03.28.20 at 3:07 pm

#100 SmarterSquirrel on 03.28.20 at 2:40 pm

Denial

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Egypt.

#106 crazyfox on 03.28.20 at 3:09 pm

#65 Ryan Lewenza on 03.28.20 at 1:13 pm

Agreed. Intergovernmental is a better way to look at it. Canada is in the low 90’s combined gov debt to GDP. The U.S. after calling in foreign debt in treasuries was at 125% intergovernmental debt to GDP at the start of this year when I looked into it this winter before the virus blew things up. This event just added a rough guessed 10% to both numbers.

We have a better fiscal picture than a good chunk of other developed nations in comparison. This doesn’t mean to say Canada is coming out of this smelling like a rose but lets not forget, we are in an ugly garden. When we look at sovereign debt elsewhere, its not a pretty picture and there’s part of the problem.

Lets suppose a good drug comes along and puts this virus in it’s place, say, in the fall and there is some notable seasonality (UV’s, optimism that remains to be seen, but lets be optimistic). We still have to heal the damage its done from idled economies throughout the world. Consumer/income confidence is shook up. Until prosperity returns, spending will be tight. Some sectors will be beat up for a while to come. Commodities, travel, entertainment, restaurants & hotels, there are industries that will be badly bruised by this, bailouts won’t solve everything and some hurts will last for longer than 2 quarters.

The world is in recession right now and will be until at least Q3. Ugly numbers are coming. Our largest trading partner has at least a dozen epicenters as we speak. Some nasty events still have to play themselves out. 2 to 3 weeks now in some states, we can add a zero:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The best case scenario moving forward is a pruned tree, i.e., consolidation in sectors across the board with some needing bailouts. With lower numbers of businesses comes less competition and more supply side shocks regardless of what demand does. This means inflation begins to pop, headed into this winter in a beat up sovereign debt bond market with rates that can’t move up without dangerous consequences. I can’t help but think there will be disruption in sovereign debt bond markets by this winter in the weaker markets. These are medium term risks that the markets may not even be aware of right now.

People by enlarge dwell on the bad and miss what good the markets have on this world. It takes capital for great ideas to reach fruition, capital to employ, feed, cloth and put roofs over our heads, capital to retire in some form of security, capital for so many things in life. Commerce and managed money is a big part of making this happen. The checks and balances in the systems, the efforts that have gone into the sublime that most miss, the laws, the disclosures of information, quarterly reports, the ease of ownership and sale of shares, there is a lot to admire in the systems we have.

In the same breath, there are times when its not wise to romanticize it or find ourselves being eternal optimists in a land of finite existence. Now is one of those times. We have to defend the status quo, the systems because they are all we have and at the end of the day, its all we will have to get us out of this mess (lets hope) but is it an easy sell to those that the system could not protect from desolation and ruin? With nerves raw and passions high, I think not.

No matter what happens, with love for our brothers and sisters, we’ll get through it. Every morning is a reset to a new day. All we can do is remind that for every door that closes, a new one opens. With each death, there is a path to new life. In mountains of loss, there is still potential for new gains and when danger approaches, it’s cousin opportunity is never far behind.

#107 Figmund Sreud on 03.28.20 at 3:11 pm

Closer to the bottom
___________________________

Well, … maybe. Who knows with certainty what the future will bring?

Anyway, … it has been said that while pedigree dogs may have the looks, mongrels have all the sense, and this guy (I never heard of him previous):

https://mobile.twitter.com/biancoresearch?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

… was smart enough to assemble this presentation, suggesting the answer to the question, Quo tendimus?
https://youtu.be/nmG3yClJxxM

Bottom line:

“This virus is the event of this generation. In the future, we will refer to this as pre-virus, post-virus.”

Enjoy,

F.S. – Calgary, Kenneystan.

#108 TrendIsYourFriend on 03.28.20 at 3:19 pm

#72 John
Take my advice for how much you paid for it –

Well, if you are caught all in, selling now may be too late, or… too early i.e if you want to get out why not do it on a bigger rally? Risk is, of course, this was it (last week). Impossible to predict.

Other option would be to partially get out when a rally fizzles. That way you would raise some cash and sleep better and still be in the game?
If you have cash to average down, I would wait.

#109 Let's Pull Together on 03.28.20 at 3:32 pm

My bank is open. Grocery store, too. Post office. Hardware store. Nobody is wearing gloves, masks or goggles. There are some plexiglass barriers, but that’s it. Surely Service Canada could figure things out rather than locking the doors. Common sense does not die just because you have a guaranteed government paycheque. – Garth

—-
Wow. What an attitude you have, Garth.

Maybe you are in isolation at home. But I can tell you right now everywhere I go in the GTA, it is ramping up, and employees still at work are wearing all kinds of protective gear and feeling very, very nervous. This is likely to increase in severity over the next few weeks, so could get much worse.

Service Canada employees are absolutely doing the right thing. Have you seen the lineups at those centres? Filled with all sorts of people, often in difficult personal/health situations even at the best of times. This should not be a gathering place in times of this virus.

We just need to get the telephone and web services scaled up quickly. There is no other reasonable choice to make.

Please reconsider your position on this, Garth. It’s important.

#110 akashic record on 03.28.20 at 3:32 pm

My bank is open. Grocery store, too. Post office. Hardware store. Nobody is wearing gloves, masks or goggles.

This may be a costly mistake down the road.

Banks, post offices, hardware stores are stuffed with people living from paycheck to paycheck.

I can’t see too many affluent people making the choice to be a hero, most of them self-isolate as hard as they possibly can.

#111 Andrew on 03.28.20 at 3:34 pm

“Yes! We’re still down 25%+ and I do believe one year out you’ll be happy you did. – Ryan L”

Wowza…

#112 BS on 03.28.20 at 3:40 pm

#61 Penny Henny on 03.28.20 at 12:56 pm

Not so much a comment but more of an observation.
For those fearing catastrophic outcomes from this virus. Where personal feelings of anxiety leads to depression and terror. I imagine that’s how Greta feels about climate change.

I imagine Greta does feel that way. The problem is not Greta’s feelings, but that world leaders are taking the feelings of a 16 year old to draft major policies.

Are they consulting 16 years old feelings on how to deal with this pandemic? No. Did they consult with 16 year olds on how on to tackle D-Day during World War 2? Nope. So if climate change is a big issue why are Greta’s feelings even relevant? They shouldn’t be to anyone but her parents.

#113 Penny Henny on 03.28.20 at 3:44 pm

Or on CNBC when this week I saw a commercial hawking gold coins stating that this is the investment to own during pandemics and recessions. I heard these exact same statements and that stupid commercial back in 2008/09.
////////////
Ok ok I get it. Not a fan of gold over there at Turner Investments.
What about fancy coloured diamonds?

#114 Dolce Vita on 03.28.20 at 3:45 pm

“…and I believe* we’re getting close to the panic/capitulation/depression stage.”

*HOPE

Same Hail Mary, 2nd Coming, Divine Intervention Q3/4 predictions as Goldman Sachs (which they admitted will need to be updated, as in worse).

“So what they’re saying is”:

In September, with NO VACCINE, people are going to get into traffic jams, crowded subway cars and elevators, etc. and happily trot off to work and then on the way home, shop ’till you drop and suffer huge long line ups at Costco and/or Walmart (’cause the rebound says they’ll be doing that) and later on watch Netflix UHD, ’cause the economy is booming again, they splurged a little.

And all thru Q2 Fed Gov kept sending them cheques well below their median income (currently, only for the next 4 weeks, Canada too).

-LAY OFF the GANJA, you and them.

#115 AK on 03.28.20 at 3:47 pm

“In 2008, during the financial crisis, people said the banks were going under and the next great depression was right around the corner.”
=====================================

They said the same would happen in 1987 and after 9/11.

#116 Penny Henny on 03.28.20 at 3:48 pm

#103 Federal Civil,Service last comment on 03.28.20 at 2:58 pm

as per the labour code it is the employers responsibility to provide a safe work environment to its employees.
Again if nurses are not provided safe equipment to deal with the public they will not work.
I have seen nurses refuse to work.

As in the news today flight attendants are demanding protective clothing. Let’s see how that pans out.
////////////////

Pinch resistant?

#117 SHANE GALLANT on 03.28.20 at 3:49 pm

1900 might be the bottom for the S&P if it goes past next to 1700 then 1500 will see..

#118 Andrew on 03.28.20 at 3:49 pm

https://youtu.be/LoeaytgytZ0

Some throwback content for everyone

#119 Marco on 03.28.20 at 3:53 pm

CS-3 dollars
F-2
VFV-27
BDB-B-0.31
TSLA – 25
SAN -1
I say that and I saw 2008 when F was 1.80

#120 marnic on 03.28.20 at 4:05 pm

Today’s problem is not simply due to the health/pandemic scare. What said scare has done is expose the decrepit state of the financial system for what it is: a gigantic, crumbling, global Ponzi scheme resulting once again in QE forever and seemingly unlimited corporate bailouts. What is the Fed’s balance sheet up to now? Only something like $4 trillion. What they threw at it in 2008 was chump change in comparison to the last few weeks. You think this is sustainable? I notice you didn’t tell us where you think we are on the rollercoaster, just a vague “we are getting closer to the bottom,” which could mean anywhere; and much of it based on what you watch on CNBC. Are you serious?

#121 Ronaldo on 03.28.20 at 4:09 pm

My bank is open. Grocery store, too. Post office. Hardware store. Nobody is wearing gloves, masks or goggles. There are some plexiglass barriers, but that’s it. Surely Service Canada could figure things out rather than locking the doors. Common sense does not die just because you have a guaranteed government paycheque. – Garth
——————————————————————
The voice of common sense. Something that seems to be in short supply in our government organization. I can see why you got out of it Garth. Didn’t fit in. Too much common sense.

#122 WTF on 03.28.20 at 4:13 pm

#Cabbage “What a cheap shot, to try to demonize anyone in a time of national crisis, especially people working on the front line of government, which is always a complicated and imperfect reality, mostly because it reflects all of us and the complicated country we share.”

Sometimes its best to keep your manufactured outrage to yourself or within the confines of the exclusive club of entitled government unionized whiners.

What “reflects on all of us” generally speaking is: the government service delivery model is broken, inefficient, expensive, a drain on future generations, and out of step with modern day realities.

“Complicated and imperfect”? It sure is. Whenever I an obligated to call or personally visit one of our esteemed front line Government help centers I need a few days to gird myself to the obtuse, condescending, arrogance and ineptitude.

The smug passive aggressive legions who for the most part are performing tasks that do not require much in the way of complexity or education. In my experience almost all of these operations could be performed by the private sector.But Better. The rot is deep and wide in the existing model.

Don’t get me started on sick leave

https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/public-sector-workers-took-a-record-number-of-sick-days-last-year/

Canada needs to get moving on reducing Government waste and overhead. Future Generations depend on it.

#123 Linda on 03.28.20 at 4:14 pm

I think we are in the ‘fear’ portion of the cycle. ‘Desperation’ will be next, especially as those who would not or could not set aside funds for a ‘rainy day’. Yes, I know about HELOCs but I doubt the majority of Canadians, especially those on the lower end of the income scale, have them. Banks normally grant those financial instruments to those who own assets, usually properties. With mass layoffs, potentially recession etc. to follow, doubt the banks will be willing to grant HELOCs now. I’d not be surprised to learn many HELOC’s are already ‘at capacity’ to boot, given recent surveys that indicate many were not even making payments on the sums owed. If they were not making payments while income was supposedly coming in, sure won’t be doing it went income isn’t. My take is banks will begin doing last calls & cutting off the flow of funds to limit losses later on. The newly announced relief by the government may smooth that curve out somewhat, but sooner or later there will be a reckoning.

#124 Figure it Out on 03.28.20 at 4:16 pm

“My bank is open. Grocery store, too. Post office. Hardware store. Nobody is wearing gloves, masks or goggles.”

My bank’s closed, as is the next closest branch. The staff at the corner grocery where I buy my Saturday Barron’s and G&M have been gloved for two weeks, and are now masked. Most people on sidewalks have been doing 6′ separation, or even crossing the street, for over a week now.

But in one way, my neighbourhood is like a small town again. Plenty of parking right in front of the store, and don’t need to worry about getting a ticket if I don’t feed the meter.

#125 Gino on 03.28.20 at 4:21 pm

The US alone had to inject 21 trillion of fake money into the markets since 2008 and just printed 3 trillion more. The free markets are over. History is no indication of what’s to come. $30 trillion estimated by 2030. Without it there is no stock market.

#126 Dolce Vita on 03.28.20 at 4:21 pm

PS:

Just a thought, when searching article data in Google, click on the Tools button and select Past Week in the Any Time drop down menu. If you do, here is what you will find:

“30% GDP drop: Morgan Stanley joins Goldman Sachs in upping estimates of coronavirus economic pain”

-Fortune Magazine (link below)

Curiously, no mention of Q3/4 predictions by either bank.

And this will make Dr. Doom Economist Nouriel Roubini green with envy:

US Fed, St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in GDP.

https://fortune.com/2020/03/23/morgan-stanley-goldman-sachs-estimate-coronavirus-economic-pain/

————————————

That’s OK, latest news:

Tinker Bell has been seconded by Trump to create a booming Q3/4 US economy (Gandalf has been contacted by Mike Pence). Pelosi looking for Pinocchio.

#127 earthboundmisfit on 03.28.20 at 4:27 pm

Where are we now? Somewhere between desparation and panic.

#128 Alessio on 03.28.20 at 4:28 pm

What the market giveth it taketh away. Rinse repeat.

#129 Keith on 03.28.20 at 4:35 pm

Ryan; MSU thanks for providing historical perspective on the financial events of the day. Keeps the financial anxiety contained.

Based on the comments section we could use a column on federal and provincial debt to GDP ratios, with a few international comparisons, and a follow up on differing fiscal and taxation policies. Too many commenters have
the wrong end of the stick on this one.

#130 Linda on 03.28.20 at 4:44 pm

About the closure of Service Canada centres to the public. Government office access pretty much everywhere has been restricted or ended altogether. Our Parliament closed itself for 5 weeks, with a restricted number of MP’s (roughly 1 in 10) returning to vote on the relief & budget packages. Leadership, they say, comes from the top. Given the sheer number of claims being filed, how does one permit safe access – no more than 50 people at a time – to a Service Canada center? How does one keep the recommended social distance of 2 meters given that clients will have to submit claims, which presumably means paperwork, to a worker? Who will keep all the surfaces wiped down & disinfected in those centers? Which lucky security guard or guards will have the joy of trying to limit access to the public so as to comply with the limit of 50 people guidelines or remove anyone who may become upset if their claim is denied? What happens if one of the employees or one of the claimants to the center tests positive for Covid-19? Who will be blamed? I’ve read that many government employees have been ordered to work from home to limit exposure even in offices where public access has ended. Seems like a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation to me. Service Canada offices might be closed, but my understanding is that Service Canada phone lines & online access is open for business. Isn’t that the safer solution under the circumstances?

How about the minimum wage kid with no pension stocking the grocery shelves in the midst of customers? Should we lock up the food stores to keep him safe the way we’re locking out people in desperate need of help with government benefits? Screw your head on. – Garth

#131 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 4:48 pm

#85 Stone on 03.28.20 at 1:46 pm

Hey Ryan, did you write a blog post today?

Sorry, I must have missed it. All I see is one commentary after another from some lonely, bored person with no real friends or life monopolizing this blog day and night called Sail Away.

—————-

Crushing.

My apologies for missing the last few hours. The dogs (my only friends) and I were fishing sea-run cutthroat. Well, actually, the dogs weren’t fishing.

Amazing morning.

#132 Dolce Vita on 03.28.20 at 4:50 pm

The only question I have is what do we call what is being predicted by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (predicted ever worse, week by week)?

30’s crash = Great Depression

2008 crash = Great Financial Crisis, Great Recession

GARTH, you’re the capable Wordsmith what would you call it IF it were to happen?

#133 Hookshott on 03.28.20 at 4:54 pm

Really we should all be wearing masks if we wish to ensure as quick an ending to this pandemic as possible.
Time to make this a requirement, as they did in the Czech Republic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=HhNo_IOPOtU&fbclid=IwAR33k5HMK4veMmUOv4Wsy2V6zDsRDYeOgfctVIjBOALVXlGplN8mc7-HoF4&app=desktop

#134 bdwy sktrn on 03.28.20 at 5:03 pm

#88 Flop… on 03.28.20 at 1:50 pm
We have live-cams for just about everything else, so how long to we get live cameras out the front of supermarkets showing how bad the line-ups are…
………………………..
had to get food today and wondered exactly the same thing, do i head for safeway, save on or costco.

of course i went to costco. burnaby is dead right now. (noonish) . i parked 2 stalls from the door.

(btw their stock is still near 52 wk highs)

——————-
and quite convinced of a re-test of the lows.

ps :bought (all-in) sds AGAIN 30 min before close at 30.15 , closed at 31.59.

too easy.

#135 PT 2 on 03.28.20 at 5:04 pm

Ryan

A few weeks ago (prior to this) you quipped for me to enjoy my tuna.

That was 15 percent ago.

Instead of drawing comparisons of the past to make your argument, why dont you come clean and list why this is different.

I will start.
Many businesses will NOT come back. Ever.
Corporations are much higher levered.
Rates last crashes were much higher going in.
Unemployment has never spiked so rapidly
Share buy back illusion is over.

You want to take the mic? Let me guess. Ignore the noise.

I can assure the silence from Buffett this time is because his best Friend Gates is guiding him.

#136 Canada on 03.28.20 at 5:07 pm

im beginning to think Canadians may be the most delusional bunch of all.

-housing bubble; check
– household debt: all time highs, check
– OIL: selling at a discount, one province is shadow of its former self: check
– leadership; there is none, check

Ryan, have a closer look at Canada. TOAST.

#137 Oscar on 03.28.20 at 5:11 pm

I see lots of discussion here on whether we have hit bottom. Much easier, simply re-balance your fixed vs equities back to where they were late February (say 60/40) and you will automatically move your funds in the right direction. Do this every few weeks over the next couple of months and reap the rewards of the market rebound whenever it occurs.

#138 crazyfox on 03.28.20 at 5:12 pm

Common sense does not die just because you have a guaranteed government paycheque. – Garth

If they close the doors, they definitely could have moved personel to beef up phone and net support one would think. Btw, my bank’s doors were locked on Friday but there was phone support. (CU)

The best video I’ve found online concerning the nuts and bolts of covid-19 is from a Dr. Kim WOO-JU, a professor who heads infectious disease department for Korea University College of Medicine and is South Korea’s top official in it’s context. This is without a doubt, the most informative video I’ve seen on COVID-19 hands down, can’t stress it enough. Everyone would do very well to watch it. For the high risk group of people who mix with others indoors 21+ hours a day, (yes, that means money managers in more than one context especially so), this video is a must watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

Gems like 20% of positive tested patients remain asymptomatic (South Korea has tested more per capita than any other nation with excellent tracing chains of infection, this nation would know) and the information on aerosol spread alone is more than enough to suffer through subtitles but there’s more, much more.

Watch it!

#139 DON on 03.28.20 at 5:16 pm

Also, now that he’s self isolating he can truly be called “the smartest man in the room”.

Is there a doorknob in the room?

Just joking!

#140 Lost....but not leased on 03.28.20 at 5:17 pm

#125 Gino on 03.28.20 at 4:21 pm
The US alone had to inject 21 trillion of fake money into the markets since 2008 and just printed 3 trillion more. The free markets are over. History is no indication of what’s to come. $30 trillion estimated by 2030. Without it there is no stock market.

=================

Bang On….

Now that Trump has repeated the good ole’ bailout pattern….watch some sort of recovery….aka the COVID-19 pandemic is over….(or maybe not.)

#141 mark on 03.28.20 at 5:21 pm

#127 earthboundmisfit on 03.28.20 at 4:27 pm
Where are we now? Somewhere between desparation and panic.

No we are in twilight zone, apparently with the blog posts.

#142 Phylis on 03.28.20 at 5:24 pm

A typical investor will reflect a depressive state when they no longer open their monthly statements. Not quite there yet, so let’s say despondent. These things take time.

#143 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 5:24 pm

#79 Don Guillermo on 03.28.20 at 1:43 pm

Denmark and Norway in lock down. Sweden is business as usual. It’ll be interesting to compare the two results after this is all over with.

—————-

Yes. Definitely one to watch. Early results suggest no issues in Sweden.

#144 fishman on 03.28.20 at 5:31 pm

#49 Good Management: Exactly, you get it, another convert preaching to stay out of the kitchen. Economystics rallying slogan to convert all unbelievers. “Free lunch for everyone & nobody works in the kitchen.”

#145 GB on 03.28.20 at 5:49 pm

RE: Service Canada

Well…my trips to 2 places inform me:

1) Superstore: ordered 6 foot social distances and plexiglass——>excellent execution by the superstore

2) NBLCC: Ordered 6 foot social distancing. Someone at the door inquiring about your health and travel status. Plexiglass and barriers to ensure 6 foot distance between employee and customer.

I have to wonder….is the employer of Service Canada taking these measures? I don’t know to be honest but do you Garth?

Are you Villainizing otherwise excellent, hard working dedicated folks without clear info?

#146 Linda on 03.28.20 at 5:51 pm

Garth, ‘locking out’ implies that there is no way to get benefits without actually going to a Service Canada center. Are you saying that people will not be able to access benefit advice/aid by other means? I will add that people who have little or no financial assets to draw on might be better off calling rather than spending money they don’t have to get to those centers. At least at home they can stay warm & away from sources of potential infection.

Go ahead. Call. Then tell us about the experience. – Garth

#147 Dr V on 03.28.20 at 5:52 pm

130 Linda – yes it’s a tough call. Basically any government office (local, provincial, first nation, federal) does have to lead by example and support
other authority. In my town I think they are all closed
to the public.

My youngest is in groceries and has had to tell several customers to back the *&^% up. Not sure what they were thinkin’. Store now has hired security to keep number of customers inside to 50.

My bank (large, blue in colour) had their biggest commissionaire at the front door, a person walking the lineup to make sure everyone kept their distance, and
another inside at the security screen. Everyone was
pretty cool about it. I was a ways back but they called for anyone who just needed the ATM so I got in quickly.

#148 Flop... on 03.28.20 at 5:53 pm

Tasmanian proverb time.

A toilet roll in the hand is worth two in the store…

M45BC

#149 People Panic on 03.28.20 at 5:54 pm

#2 Living and learning on 03.28.20 at 10:40 am

It looks like there may be a cure for CV19. It’s a combination of anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine and antibiotic azithromycin. If true, the pandemic could soon be under control. I believe that NY Governor Como has ordered a million doses. I think Garth is right that this will pass. Read this thread:

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1243731363003609095

———————-

And then Nevada and Michigan banned it because some idiot mistook his fish tank treatment for the same stuff and won himself a Darwin award. Hopefully someone with a medical degree will talk some sense into them.

And of course as soon as Trump talked about the success they were having with it in France the media helpfully pointed out that 2 mg will kill you. 2 mg of lots of drugs will kill you. Doctors aren’t going to be prescribing 2 mg at a time. So how is this information helpful?

And people are still clearing out the toilet paper at open at the Costco. But the canned ham sits there unloved and unwanted.

I think Einstein was right, the only thing that is infinite is human stupidity.

#150 DON on 03.28.20 at 6:00 pm

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3077388/coronavirus-world-braces-condom-shortage-after-malaysia

Baby BOOM!

#151 Loonie Doctor on 03.28.20 at 6:04 pm

My opinion on market-timing is generally a contrarian indicator. That said, here it is:

The high volume with the market low suggested capitulation to me March 23rd.

The high volume of comments on this blog suggests we are at despondency.

Medically, I have seen three groups independently model for COVID on local basis and they consistently suggest peak infection in 3-4 weeks. Lots of uncertainty and assumptions in that type of modelling though. Plus, public health and modellers get better funding when they predict disaster.

I think depression will be in 3-4 weeks, but that could change with unforeseen developments. Markets look ahead, but this is hard to pinpoint. Hence the difficulty of market-timing.
-LD

#152 Nonplused on 03.28.20 at 6:04 pm

#61 Penny Henny on 03.28.20 at 12:56 pm
Not so much a comment but more of an observation.
For those fearing catastrophic outcomes from this virus. Where personal feelings of anxiety leads to depression and terror. I imagine that’s how Greta feels about climate change.

———————-

Well, this crisis is turning out to be a good test run of the policies she proposes. Shut society down to save the planet from a relatively minor problem. The “We are all going to die!” reactions to both problems are probably going to look more than a little over-hyped in the rear view mirror.

#153 Sold Out on 03.28.20 at 6:09 pm

How about the minimum wage kid with no pension stocking the grocery shelves in the midst of customers? Should we lock up the food stores to keep him safe the way we’re locking out people in desperate need of help with government benefits? Screw your head on. – Garth

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Actually, many grocery store chain employees are happily unionized. All the chain store workers in my town received a $2.00/hour pay raise, as well.

http://www.ufcw247.com/

#154 Penny Henny on 03.28.20 at 6:18 pm

#131 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 4:48 pm

My apologies for missing the last few hours. The dogs (my only friends) and I were fishing sea-run cutthroat. Well, actually, the dogs weren’t fishing.

Amazing morning.
///////////

WTF is this Facebook?
No one cares.

PS- the dogs only tolerate you cause you feed them

#155 S.Bby on 03.28.20 at 6:23 pm

Service Canada:

When we need you the most, you are not there for us.

Absolutely pathetic of you to desert your fellow citizens.

#156 Nonplused on 03.28.20 at 6:24 pm

#60 Don Guillermo

I agree for most people tanks are better. And they are up around 80% efficient already so the cost and hassles of a tankless heater may not be worth the 15% additional efficiency. There is more to be gained by replacing the furnace and adding insulation in most cases. I know much about these things because I just had to get an energy audit some months back so I could apply for rebates when my furnace died.

My hot water tank also runs the in-floor heating so it is a big one and cost a fair amount to replace, but converting to either tankless or or a boiler was several times as much money. I don’t think it would have ever paid for itself, especially with natural gas apparently stuck in a permanent recession. And with a boiler you still end up with a tank, it just doesn’t have a fire under it. I would have had to go with the boiler because a tankless system isn’t ideal for in-floor heating due to it’s off-on nature. The floor doesn’t need that much heat all at once.

#157 Ronaldo on 03.28.20 at 6:33 pm

EVENT 201 VIDEOS. Watch.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/videos.html

#158 Stone on 03.28.20 at 6:34 pm

#131 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 4:48 pm
#85 Stone on 03.28.20 at 1:46 pm

Hey Ryan, did you write a blog post today?

Sorry, I must have missed it. All I see is one commentary after another from some lonely, bored person with no real friends or life monopolizing this blog day and night called Sail Away.

—————-

Crushing.

My apologies for missing the last few hours. The dogs (my only friends) and I were fishing sea-run cutthroat. Well, actually, the dogs weren’t fishing.

Amazing morning.

———

Relax cubby. I wasn’t asking your opinion, input, or apology. I was addressing Ryan, not you. You seem to have a problem with self-importance. Go back to your imaginary fantasyland.

#159 david prokop on 03.28.20 at 6:35 pm

Ryan, on Feb 29th you called the market a ‘Buying opportunity’, now you’re saying we are close to the bottom? This is just a typical money manager’s view, just to keep the clients happy. I seriously doubt this bear market will be over in just 2 months. We are entering a global recession, very little doubt about it, the entire world has come to a halt and you’re saying bottom is near? The last 2 bear markets lasted well over a year, there is no way this is over soon

#160 Steven Rowlandson on 03.28.20 at 6:41 pm

Ryan you had best make room for the possibility of this being a triple depression and will last longer than the double depression of the 1930s. The bad debt and inflation of the post ww2 and cold war/ war on terror were never purged therefore we are facing at least a triple depression. The failure of central banks and liberal democracy / marxism will be revealed.

#161 wallflower on 03.28.20 at 6:49 pm

I would like to explore that Service Canada fiasco further. I sent this off to TVO Agenda yesterday.

Could Steve Paikin do a show exploring the implications of their Union and Service Canada employees.
Private sector employees who are busting their butts delivering essential products at minimum wage and zero pension and health benefits would like to better understand the rationale behind all this.
In what universe does any of this make sense?
Are these federal employees not working at full pay and benefits?
Should Canadians be proud of their civil servants? Or should we be ashamed and embarrassed?

#162 Attrition on 03.28.20 at 6:50 pm

They told us face masks are useless.
Then, they told us they only work for about an hour.
Next, they told us they’re good for up to twelve hours.
Now, they’re telling us everyone needs to wear one.

These are the same people you believe have things under control. The same people you think know what they’re talking about.

It’s not what they say it is, it didn’t start when they said it did, and it won’t end when they tell you it will. Because they don’t know. (Queue: The Great Pretender, or maybe The Pretenders?)

Now if only we could get hourly stats for all communicable disease infections, recoveries and deaths and not just Covid.

Seriously. Can’t we at least see influenza and pneumonia fatality stats alongside Covid19 every hour? Include the R naughts as well. Then we might be able to (gasp!) judge for ourselves and decide which risks are calculable and worth taking.

Big data, where are ye?

#163 islander on 03.28.20 at 6:51 pm

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200328-how-to-self-isolate-what-we-can-learn-from-sweden

#143 Sail Away

“More than half of all Swedish homes are made up of one resident, the highest proportion in Europe”.
Physical distancing is something the Swedes have got down pat in any case!
Wishing them all the best.

#164 Steve French on 03.28.20 at 6:53 pm

I’m interested in why Blog Dogs think this could not be a worse situation than the Great Depression.

Unemployment is skyrocketing. In 1932 you could walk down the street and there would still be functioning city.

Now, entire countries are shutting down and people are locked in their homes. Basically– there is no functioning consumer economy.

So please explain to me, unless we get a vaccine very soon, why could this not be worse economic collapse than the Great Depression?

#165 Genesis II on 03.28.20 at 6:54 pm

Where are we now? I’d say we’re at some point between the “panic” and “capitulation”. As we’ve witnessed over the past week, there’s likely to be a continued rebound over several weeks/months – at least until the VIX subsides and everyone feels comfortable again.

After this brief upswing, the markets will resume the grind lower and lower…and lower, until “despondency”, followed by ‘depression’, when everything will seem hopeless. This should be some time in 2021-22.

At least this is what my crystal ball is showing. Let’s see if it was worth the money I paid for it!

#166 Ed on 03.28.20 at 6:55 pm

So what I’m seeing on CNBC, and what I’m hearing from some investors and clients, makes me even more convinced we’re getting closer to the bottom in the markets (peak of infection rates?) and that the economy and markets will recover from this unprecedented and historic event.

Brace For The Greatest Depression Ever Seen.

Why are they making such a big deal of coronavirus? No one reacted like this when Bird Flu was rampant during 2009 to 2010. I had forgotten all about the Bird Flu outbreak. But it infected 60 million Americans, hospitalised 200,000 Americans with deaths somewhere around 12,000… but there was no outcry or lockdowns. So why is Corona being treated so differently.

The reason why the government is allowing the economy to crash not just domestically but on a global scale is because they want there to be nothing leftso they can bring in a one-world government with a One World currency.

Ryan you serving one’s own interests…, I would like to hear from you…

#167 Ronaldo on 03.28.20 at 6:58 pm

#109 Let’s Pull Together on 03.28.20 at 3:32 pm
My bank is open. Grocery store, too. Post office. Hardware store. Nobody is wearing gloves, masks or goggles. There are some plexiglass barriers, but that’s it. Surely Service Canada could figure things out rather than locking the doors. Common sense does not die just because you have a guaranteed government paycheque. – Garth

—-
Wow. What an attitude you have, Garth.

Maybe you are in isolation at home. But I can tell you right now everywhere I go in the GTA, it is ramping up, and employees still at work are wearing all kinds of protective gear and feeling very, very nervous. This is likely to increase in severity over the next few weeks, so could get much worse.

Service Canada employees are absolutely doing the right thing. Have you seen the lineups at those centres? Filled with all sorts of people, often in difficult personal/health situations even at the best of times. This should not be a gathering place in times of this virus.

We just need to get the telephone and web services scaled up quickly. There is no other reasonable choice to make.

Please reconsider your position on this, Garth. It’s important.
—————————————————————–

I wonder what these same people who refuse to come to work would say if the truckers that haul food into their city decided it was too dangerous for them as is now the case for New York?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-26/truckers-wary-of-new-york-deliveries-create-headache-for-grocers

#168 Yukon Elvis on 03.28.20 at 6:59 pm

The choice.

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/443172560721543180/691137525481472030/video0.mp4

#169 yvr_lurker on 03.28.20 at 7:04 pm

#154

WTF is this Facebook?
No one cares.

PS- the dogs only tolerate you cause you feed them
————————-

Now that was funny…. Upvote please!…. I am still trying to figure out how to give a fair online exam to 1400 engineering students…

#170 Jimmy Da Bouche on 03.28.20 at 7:06 pm

Right now, we are moving from the denial to the fear stage. Still a long way down to go.

#171 Attrition on 03.28.20 at 7:07 pm

#164 Steve French on 03.28.20 at 6:53 pm

I’m interested in why Blog Dogs think this could not be a worse situation than the Great Depression.

Unemployment is skyrocketing. In 1932 you could walk down the street and there would still be functioning city.

Now, entire countries are shutting down and people are locked in their homes. Basically– there is no functioning consumer economy.

So please explain to me, unless we get a vaccine very soon, why could this not be worse economic collapse than the Great Depression?

Because govts could order every business open tomorrow, and the economy would come back to life, but we won’t do that yet because more people will get sick and/or die.

But this is exactly what they will do soon, vax or no vax, to stave off anything as bad as the Great Depression.

This they can switch off at anytime.

Btw, you must be very old. You remember what is was like to walk down city streets in 1932?

#172 Flop... on 03.28.20 at 7:14 pm

Frenchie, since you’re on here, I must admit you had me a little worried to look at my Southern Hemisphere Portfolio.

It was only down around 10% and I don’t control it, so I would call that a win at this stage.

Also as a few people have stated on here, I have been contacted by both my superannuation companies, with part of the discussion about being able to access 10k of money that I wasn’t supposed to be able to get until the age of 60.

I will be adding, not subtracting, to my meagre portfolios at this point in time.

I will retire at 60, even if I have to eat beans on toast everyday.

By then, 45 years in the trades.

Body will be pulp by then…

M45BC

#173 What’s next on 03.28.20 at 7:18 pm

To Steve #164
Garth and Ryan predict no Depression
Def recession two negative quarters
Def depression one full business cycle of negative.

High unemployment for two or three months would not constitute a depression. Remember it was not economics that sent everyone home it was the flu.
Basically all those jobs still exist? Or do they?.

1932 they were years of high unemployment with no safety net. Men travel as hobos on freight trains cris crossing the country looking for jobs.
2020 everyone is home collecting 2,000 a month

Will corporate earning be toast, yep for two quarters or more
Will people be broke probably for a year or more but those who had no savings were broke anyway.
My worry is how the heck do you restart the economy.

A big puzzle for me is somebody says okay it’s over let’s go back to work and flip the magic switch.
How do you know it’s over are you going to test every Canadian?
Even medical experts say tens of thousands have this thing and no symptoms. How can they be confident they will not transmit the disease and we start all over again?

Anyway it will be very interesting how this all works going back to work and putting back all the pieces.
Cheers

#174 Wrk.dover on 03.28.20 at 7:19 pm

#153 Sold Out on 03.28.20 at 6:09 pm
How about the minimum wage kid with no pension stocking the grocery shelves in the midst of customers? Should we lock up the food stores to keep him safe the way we’re locking out people in desperate need of help with government benefits? Screw your head on. – Garth

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Actually, many grocery store chain employees are happily unionized. All the chain store workers in my town received a $2.00/hour pay raise, as well.

http://www.ufcw247.com/

——————————————-

FOUR GRAND A YEAR !!! WINNING

if they survive…

#175 Last Chance on 03.28.20 at 7:25 pm

Dee: You said:

While Trudeau and his media destroy our economy with their message of FEAR… I have 2 friends in BC who both need cancer treatments NOW but can’t get them because Trudeau picks a coronavirus life/death over every other disease people need help for. It’s no wonder so many emergency wards in Canada say they are very quiet right now. Empty beds tied up waiting for what?? While people who need help for cancer can’t get it. How will our economy ever pick up when our leader hides in his cabin while we are all left to fight for food and money and health care??

I am currently recieving excellent cancer care in BC as we speak, in Victoria. I call BS on your statement.

#176 oh bouy on 03.28.20 at 7:25 pm

@#164 Steve French on 03.28.20 at 6:53 pm
I’m interested in why Blog Dogs think this could not be a worse situation than the Great Depression.

Unemployment is skyrocketing. In 1932 you could walk down the street and there would still be functioning city.

Now, entire countries are shutting down and people are locked in their homes. Basically– there is no functioning consumer economy.

So please explain to me, unless we get a vaccine very soon, why could this not be worse economic collapse than the Great Depression?
__________________________________

Take a breath steve, it’s temporary.

#177 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 7:28 pm

I sense a touch of Sail Away Derangement Syndrome (SADS) today.

You know, resentment is like drinking poison and hoping the other person dies.

Love is the answer.

#178 oh bouy on 03.28.20 at 7:30 pm

@#156 Nonplused on 03.28.20 at 6:24 pm
#60 Don Guillermo

I agree for most people tanks are better. And they are up around 80% efficient already so the cost and hassles of a tankless heater may not be worth the 15% additional efficiency. There is more to be gained by replacing the furnace and adding insulation in most cases. I know much about these things because I just had to get an energy audit some months back so I could apply for rebates when my furnace died.

My hot water tank also runs the in-floor heating so it is a big one and cost a fair amount to replace, but converting to either tankless or or a boiler was several times as much money. I don’t think it would have ever paid for itself, especially with natural gas apparently stuck in a permanent recession. And with a boiler you still end up with a tank, it just doesn’t have a fire under it. I would have had to go with the boiler because a tankless system isn’t ideal for in-floor heating due to it’s off-on nature. The floor doesn’t need that much heat all at once.
_______________________

went tankless about 5 years ago.
never going back, its amazing.
no problems what so ever.

#179 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.28.20 at 7:35 pm

@#162 Attrition-

There have been no deaths in Canada from anything other than Covid-19 for the last two weeks.

#180 Flanneur on 03.28.20 at 7:37 pm

I asked my spouse for where we are on the scale as is not involved with investing and is in healthcare admin. And MD . Denial and fear was the answer. Wow. Thought we were farther down.

#181 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 7:40 pm

@#164 Steve French on 03.28.20 at 6:53 pm

So please explain to me, unless we get a vaccine very soon, why could this not be worse economic collapse than the Great Depression?

—————

The reason, Steve, is because the Corvid does not represent a serious concern. When we stop believing in it, the economic halt will end. Does that help?

#182 East Coast Life Style on 03.28.20 at 7:41 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhGuuuOmPUo

I’m tired of hearing about how great Canada’s debt to GDP ratio is. Since when is that metric used? What happens when the GDP contracts violently like right about now? Besides, add in the debt of the provinces and we’re actually the worst in the G7.

#183 Howard on 03.28.20 at 7:42 pm

#132 Dolce Vita on 03.28.20 at 4:50 pm
The only question I have is what do we call what is being predicted by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (predicted ever worse, week by week)?

30’s crash = Great Depression

2008 crash = Great Financial Crisis, Great Recession

GARTH, you’re the capable Wordsmith what would you call it IF it were to happen?

——————————————

The Great Vindication (of nationalism over globalism)

#184 rookie57 on 03.28.20 at 7:43 pm

The bubble (market) found a pin (COVID19). As a long term investor, I smell a buying opportunity. Nibbled some and will look at nibbling more. Not too sure if we get a V shaped recovery. COVID19 news will dictate how things roll out. Looking at the current bounce with skepticism. Hopefully will revisit bottom before rise up. In the meantime, I am keeping my distance and washing my hands. If only my mother was still alive, she’d be amused with how much hand washing I am doing. Keep safe everyone.

#185 Oh Yeah on 03.28.20 at 7:44 pm

“Let’s revisit that roller-coaster of investor emotions Garth published here last week.”

How about you revisit this topic by writing about it again in 6 months time. I don’t think you’ll want to.

#186 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 7:49 pm

#154 Penny Henny on 03.28.20 at 6:18 pm

WTF is this Facebook?

———————-

Facebook?

It’s a social media site that’s been around for several years. A fellow named Mark Zuckerberg created it.

#187 Marco on 03.28.20 at 7:51 pm

A lot of time COSTCO is mentioned on this pathetic blog.
So all of you became big time investors with well balanced portfolios by buying at COSTCO?

#188 Eyes Wide Open on 03.28.20 at 7:57 pm

#138 crazyfox

The first two things I noticed about that video:

1. They’re sitting around 2-3 feet from each other.

2. Neither are wearing masks.

Just saying …

#189 Capt. Serious on 03.28.20 at 7:57 pm

Considering readers are coming to a housing and financial blog, it’s astounding the number of people commenting here who do not understand geometric growth. Simply mind boggling.

My guess is we have not seen capitulation yet, but who knows. I’m not even sure we can call this a bear market if it all turns out to be over within a month in the equity market. We shall see. I would not be surprised if the equity market recovers well ahead of the economy coming back to life. It’s surely not going to wait until things are good. Look at 2009 for an example of how the market rallies well in advance of the economic statistics improving.

#190 Trojan House on 03.28.20 at 7:57 pm

#166 Ed on 03.28.20 at 6:55 pm

Just so nobody calls BS on you:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

#191 Dr V on 03.28.20 at 8:04 pm

164 Steve – your comment has many good replies. Parts of the discretionary consumer economy are dead.
And maybe some of the non-discretionary has slowed
down.

Utilities, cable and internet, grocery still going strong.
Automotive, finance, hardware, probably affected somewhat. Indoor rec kaput, outdoor rec could be up.
Travel, hospitality, clothing kaput. Electronics??
Personal services kaput, professional services doing
the best they can as much can be done remotely or behind locked doors.

It is certainly different. And can we re-boot when the infection disappears? There has been no act of war or
physical natural disaster that has destroyed plant and equipment. No financial crisis (yet?).

In the meantime, watch those markets….

#192 Westcdn on 03.28.20 at 8:11 pm

I am well served to keep my contrarian opinions to myself. But if I think it is important, I will speak out and endure the response – usually shunning/shaming.

I was looking at the Icelandic study about CV19. This “pandemic” may be just overblown fears except some people are extremely vulnerable. I have read from other sources that CV19 has caused neurological impairment and the unfortunate lose the ability to breathe on their own.
https://futurism.com/neoscope/half-coronavirus-carriers-no-symptom

I hope this report is true and we can get back to work and end the madness of “free” money. There remains much to learn about this flu so it is too early to call. Personally, the report rings true to me so I expecting a quicker economic recovery than most predict. I wish I could say the same about oil prices. The oil sands may not be economic again for a very long time – 5+ years as a guess.

I am ready to start buying Monday, probably in the afternoon. I keep in mind someone’s debt is another’s asset – think pensions/retirement. I nominate Bill Ackman as A-hole of the year.
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/27/montauk-bill-ackman-villain-hero/

The man will need a warehouse of TP and will probably make money at it. He is the caricature of a Capitalist that so terrorizes millennials. Chill, he is just a jerk. I will take my own advice and not rant on public servants or our elitist leaders today.

#193 Capt. Serious on 03.28.20 at 8:11 pm

#160 Steven Rowlandson on 03.28.20 at 6:41 pm
Ryan you had best make room for the possibility of this being a triple depression and will last longer than the double depression of the 1930s.

It’s adorable you think the current system is worse than the one in the 1930s. In the 30s the geniuses decided to try to balance the budget in the early years of the depression, which is exactly the opposite of what you want to do.

Fun fact to think about: The market falls 30%. How many more times does it need to fall 30% sequentially to reach 85% down (what happened in the depression)? 4 more times. That’s four more times investors see a loss of 30% relative to the previous 30% down. No wonder a whole generation ignored the stock market.

#194 CJohnC on 03.28.20 at 8:13 pm

#23 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.28.20 at 11:31 am

Hope you find your TP, but if not, duct tape is still easy to come by, fits nicely in your TP holder, and does double duty as a wipe-n-wax.

#195 Trojan House on 03.28.20 at 8:16 pm

Here is some info. These graphics are constantly being updated. In the latest version, they took out deaths per day from other viruses.

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

Here is a pic of the same graphic from March 12th which shows the graphic of how this virus compares with other viruses on deaths per days:

https://infobeautiful4.s3.amazonaws.com/2020/03/corona-full.png

Interesting to note, tuberculosis averages over 3000 deaths per day.

They also have some info on coronavirus myths and “mythconceptions.”

#196 Doug t on 03.28.20 at 8:16 pm

The human experience -if your lucky is roughly 80yrs – in that brief flicker of time what do we choose to do before it’s over? The vast majority live like sheep (me as well for the most part) – will this event change anyone’s reality? I hope so because so many days are like a scene from the movie Groundhog Day. When your dead it’s over – so grasp the possibility of change and see what kind of Life you can experience

#197 Linda on 03.28.20 at 8:26 pm

Call or visit, going to be a wait. Previous Service Canada experience – all during ‘non-peak’ visiting times. Arrive. Take a number. Find a seat if one is available. Wait for number to come up. Shortest wait ‘in person’ to date before my number was called, approximately 20 minutes. Score! Usually have at least 30 minute wait, 45 minutes not uncommon. But, live in a large urban center so volumes reflect that.

Let us say our local service centers do open for business. There are 4. Three of them should be reachable by public transit – though both the bus & rail services have been reduced in frequency – with the fourth centre so far out in the boonies that I’m pretty sure it is only accessible via car or taxi, always supposing that the public is allowed to go there in the first place. The downtown office is about 450 meters from the nearest rail stop, but will likely have the highest volume due to location. The next nearest office is 1.4 kilometers from the nearest rail stop, but bus service from the rail station (if running) is supposed to stop nearby. Our local bus is still running during the rush hour at least, so I’d have to take a bus or walk if the bus isn’t running to the nearest rail station. I walk fast so it wouldn’t take me more than an hour to walk there – it is only 4 or so kilometers away from where I live. Then the train ride – 20 minutes or so – then finally walk to the Service Center. If i’m lucky, I get inside right away if they are restricting access to no more than 50 people at a time. If not, wait until there is space to enter. Then take a number if they are still using that system, wait to be called, do whatever steps are required to ensure minimum risk of infection, complete my business & then head home. Considering that during normal times it takes a minimum of 45 minutes to get downtown from my residence using public transit, if the service center does open I’d likely spend at least 2 1/4 hours during ‘normal’ times to complete my mission – 45 minutes to, 45 minutes from & let us just say 30 minutes to get called & 15 more minutes to complete my business. Right now? If all went well, might only be the expected 2 1/4 hours, but I’m betting it would take at least 4 hours or more. Using public transit, trying to avoid touching anything & stay at least 6 feet away from my fellow citizens at all times. Whee! A taxi downtown would be faster – about a 25 minute drive one way – but would cost at least $50. Each way. However, I’m one of the lucky ones. I have a vehicle! I can drive to other service center that is in my end of the world. Still will take about 20 minutes to drive there, but at least I won’t have to pay for parking like I would if I went downtown. Still might have to wait to get into the center, definitely would have to wait once I got inside & still have to do my best to maintain that social distancing. Or – I could avoid all the hassle & just call. Who knows? Maybe I’ll score & get through without waiting. Miracles do happen:)

#198 Westcdn on 03.28.20 at 8:29 pm

Oh, I bet Bill Ackman is fun at a party.

#199 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.28.20 at 8:32 pm

@#147 Dr V
“Basically any government office (local, provincial, first nation, federal) does have to lead by example and support
other authority. In my town I think they are all closed
to the public.”
+++

Dont waste your time trying to explain your point of view with facts, reason and common sense in the real world.

You’re dealing with entitled, unionized, govt employees that don’t understand anything you’re saying.

#200 Lost...but not leased on 03.28.20 at 8:46 pm

Just an editorial comment:

Majority of our so -called “professionals”…are a disgrace.

They need to be outed when this scam has lost its fatuous momentum.

#201 Katherine on 03.28.20 at 8:52 pm

Totally agree with Linda!!! Much safer for service ontario people to do business via phone or internet.
Definitely feel for all those who must physically show up for work (hospital staff, truck drivers, grocery store staff, pharmacists, etc)….they have no alternative. I am very, very thankful that they go out every day to help us all.

#202 Sail Away on 03.28.20 at 8:55 pm

#186 Marco on 03.28.20 at 7:51 pm

A lot of time COSTCO is mentioned on this pathetic blog.
So all of you became big time investors with well balanced portfolios by buying at COSTCO?

—————-

No, silly. By buying Costco (COST). Nobody gets rich through consuming.

#203 Figure it Out on 03.28.20 at 9:13 pm

“I had forgotten all about the Bird Flu outbreak. But it infected 60 million Americans, hospitalised 200,000 Americans with deaths somewhere around 12,000… but there was no outcry or lockdowns.”

Well, the US is on track for over 12,000 dead from THIS bug by this time next week. Watch and see.

#204 Question for yvr_lurker on 03.28.20 at 9:19 pm

You have 1400 engineer students?

#205 Mark on 03.28.20 at 9:23 pm

Wow. calling the end of a bear market after just 5 weeks, huh? Okay, then.

#206 greyhound on 03.28.20 at 9:31 pm

“I heard these exact same statements and that stupid commercial back in 2008/09.“

What if this experience is going to be quite different from 2008-2009?
What if de-leveraging is just getting started?

#207 Last Gasp on 03.28.20 at 9:41 pm

We are only
in the very early stage of panic. In Kondratieff “economic seasons” we have moved from fall into winter. The 30 percentile crash was only the first big fall of first “economic snow. ” In one dramatic gesture it tells us our world now will require new rules for living. Expect a bounce or two up in the global share markets from trillions of invented unrecoverable fiction money. Even when covid receeds the financial gerrymandering and excesses over the last decades will have to be reconciled. By September for 2020, the share markets will be down 70 per cent from highs and real estate prices in freefall as credit worthiness evaporates. Un employment will be 25 to 30 per cent. We are in a new cycle and a global debt jubillee is underway. This cycle will take 21 years before full recovery and a fresh new boom cycle emerges. Nature is a closed system which you can only cheat for only so long before you are consumed by one’s own carelessness or conceit. This dark double decade will only benefit the humble and the diligent.

#208 timis on 03.28.20 at 9:52 pm

#103 Federal Civil,Service last comment on 03.28.20 at 2:58 pm
##################
Thanks for writing about this issue. You seem to have detailed information on this matter.
I know you said it the last comment but it would be of great value if you could kindly answer these questions:

1.Do you think anybody at Service Canada will lose their job – Managers, Directors, Department VPs – for the inability to manage this situation (order masks, install Plexiglas screens, orderly reduced access)?
2.What makes you think that they can manage arranging access for all to work the phones remotely if they could not manage above situation?
3.Do Service Canada workers get laid off and can apply for the EI or the $2000 benefit?
4.If the locations lockdown prove to not be an issue, do you think reopening them is still needed?

#209 Dr V on 03.28.20 at 10:01 pm

199 fartz

“You’re dealing with entitled, unionized, govt employees that don’t understand anything you’re saying.”

Actually fartz, it can take up a good portion of my work day.

I’ve worked for both large and small companies. And
one medium (provincial) and one small (local)
government. The opposite mentalities were striking. Even with a large multi-national company, the question was “we have no money to start with, how do
we make some money?” and with government it was “we have this much budgetted, how do we make
sure we spend it all?”

#210 Drinking on 03.28.20 at 10:02 pm

An Oldie, we all need a laugh!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUabDrfjATY

#211 yvr_lurker on 03.28.20 at 10:37 pm

204 You have 1400 engineer students?

———
I am the head of an entire team running this course…must make a good decision that is fair for everyone… a little tricky at this stage…

#212 marnic on 03.28.20 at 10:54 pm

#192 Westcdn

“I hope this report is true and we can get back to work and end the madness of “free” money.”

______

Hahahahaha! I’m sure Boeing and the rest of the corporations on life support will just give it all straight back…

#213 R on 03.28.20 at 10:58 pm

An excellent website to track the current status of the virus worldwide has been developed by a 17 year old. It is updated on a minute by minute basis, globally. Too bad this is not available to a POTUS.
Ncov2019.live

#214 Bored in Hamilton on 03.28.20 at 11:17 pm

Garth, you said:

My bank is open. Grocery store, too. Post office. Hardware store. Nobody is wearing gloves, masks or goggles. There are some plexiglass barriers, but that’s it.

I am guessing your in Lunenburg? Makes sense where there are few Covid cases, but in my area I see more than 50% of people have PPE on in public. It’s a different reality in any big cities right now.

#215 Attrition on 03.28.20 at 11:20 pm

#179 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.28.20 at 7:35 pm

@#162 Attrition-

There have been no deaths in Canada from anything other than Covid-19 for the last two weeks.

Soooo….death rate’s gone down, then.

#216 Bigblockpower on 03.28.20 at 11:36 pm

WoW!
All the worthless gov’t union workers are out tonight:)
The cancer of Canada.
Worthless, lazy, self-entitled and obviously morally superior than the rest of us.

How dare Garth question the laziness and moral superiority of the government union employee!!!! LOLOLOL

‘Lets Pull together’ #109 and you too ‘Cabbagetown Carly’.
WTF?
Sitting at home smelling your farts and collecting your cheque…. ?
No one feels sorry for you. No one. At least not in the private sector. You get paid to do a job. You are nothing special.
You don’t like your job, quit.

Hahahahaha

Good job Garth!!!

Maybe you should tell Canadians how many people are employed by the CRA to collect taxes from 38mil people verses how many people are employed by the IRS to collect taxes for 340mil people.

Think people would be shocked.

Garth, I am begging you please,
release some juicy stats on how big and expensive our gov’t is.
No one wants to go there! Why not! maybe because it is the biggest most expensive, inefficient federal workforce in the entire 1st world on a per-capita basis??
All designed to circulate Loonies around the country to make it look like we actually do something here besides build houses and subsidize the U.S. oil sector.

Garth!!! God knows you are Great ;)

#217 fishman on 03.28.20 at 11:56 pm

Henny Penny: no doubt Greta has feelings of anxiety & terror from climate change but she handles it pretty well for a teenager with ADT. How about when she put the Chicoms on notice to stop using disposable chopsticks because they were destroying millions of trees. Chicoms came back with chopsticks were made of bamboo & bamboo was a grass. If she wanted to save trees, stop using TP. Which she did. Converted to grass formulated into chopsticks to wipe. No hypocrite Greta.
How bout my anxiety & depression. Twice posting on a Sat. nite. I never post on a Sat. nite. This is reserved for landlocked sailor lads going down to the boat, away from the ladies, cold beer, good smoke,(salmon & black cod of course). Cheering the hated Maple Loafs losing. Rapt attention paid to the maestro Donald, (not the orange one) & consoling ourselves with another missed playoff season for the Canuckleheads. How far we’ve fallen.

#218 Barb on 03.29.20 at 12:30 am

“…how to give a fair online exam to 1400 engineering students…”

——————————
Design a spaghetti tunnel into the Service Canada office of your choice.

#219 Spiltbongwater on 03.29.20 at 12:31 am

My neighbourhood farm market will no longer be selling deli meat and cheeses “for safety of everyone”. Employees wear gloves and masks. There is a line up at the door to maintain social distancing. Plexiglass at the till is new now.

Wish I could live in Garths neighbourhood with no fear of virus. I actually put on gloves to shop today.

#220 Guy in Calgary on 03.29.20 at 12:46 am

Calling a bottom is calling an end to the pandemic which you cannot do.

#221 SoggyShorts on 03.29.20 at 12:50 am

#78 Ryan Lewenza on 03.28.20 at 1:42 pm

Yes! We’re still down 25%+ and I do believe one year out you’ll be happy you did. – Ryan L
**********
Wait, what? Had me for a second there; you must mean “the market” when you say “we”, right? A 60/40 is down about half that I assume?
-22.08% sogg
-20.54% veqt
-16.72% vgro
-12.95% vbal

#222 Gary C on 03.29.20 at 1:07 am

Victor Adair: right now we are trading Psychology not markets.
The last three market crashes resulted in markets rebounding 20% then going even lower to hit bottom, relief rally’s were sold.
My take is Dow 17000 as a bottom, there is NO MORE JUICE IN THE LEMON, the Fed squeezed it all out.

#223 Robert Ash on 03.29.20 at 1:17 am

If our North American Economy, is a Consumer Based Market Economy, how can having the population that is only a paycheck away from serious financial harship, correct itself, after even two months of zero revenue… Look at the Fixed asset markets, with Bonds behaving differently( less inverse correlation), and the NIRP or ZIRP, and the Corporate Bond market with how many Zombie companies, … How is this going to end well… 4-5 million on EI, in a week? The only hope for any normal economic activity, is if a cure or vacine, is forthcoming… and the estimates of that happening are not optimistic… If the repurposing of Antivirals, or Antibodies, via Plasma, is effective we might, see a window of optimism, in a few month… What happens, after April, who pays the Rent? The Bank? The Small Business overhead?… I hope I am incorrect,and inherently pessimistic. But how do you have a Market Economy with out a Marketplace?

#224 Carlos the Unwashed on 03.29.20 at 4:09 am

Yes, there will be a bottom. But what kind of recovery will take place? Short sharp or long and drawn out? This is a pandemic, not something any amount of money thrown at it will waver from its unknowable course. In fact , this time it is different.

The only other examples we’ve had are the 1918 Spanish Flu and the 13th century Black Death. This is not a Lehman Brothers fiasco. That’s what makes calling a bottom impossible.

No amount of money can cure the virus, which according to all reliable news sources is spreading fast and shocking death tolls are reported as growing exponentially every single day. A zillion dollar bail out of every industry won’t stop a disease.

Apparently we can’t pay Corona to back off. And no amount will buy back bad loans for airlines and hotels which remain shuttered for years. Don’t get me wrong I’d like this thing to end tomorrow, but that can’t be forecast , because it’s not a financial fix.

A cure could show up and bam, the end. We could end up fighting this thing for years, it could get worse and a depression would be fact. So, L Shape bottom, very nasty.

Everyone hopes for a clinical V recovery. Second best , a U shaped recovery. We don’t know. Real capitulation is when sites like this close down and your assets have been wiped. A real bottom is where ex bankers are selling apples on the street corner.

The bottom will appear in hindsight, likely months after it occurs. The street will be caked with dried blood. Your youngest daughter will have become a prostitute for lack of seats in an online cosmetology course and your son is pulling a rickshaw for returning tourists in Victoria.

The recovery won’t be announced. It won’t be recognized. It will occur as if entering a new world, stealthy and unwelcome, unrecognized by financial media who’ve taken to reporting sewer outflow.

Plan for the worst. My humble opinion is that we’ll see a trail of misery strewn with bull traps and dead cats bouncing like raindrops. Horde cash.

#225 calgaryPhantom on 03.29.20 at 4:33 am

The correction happened so fast that we skipped the

anxiety
denial
fear
desperation

; and went straight to Panic and capitulation. I think we are still at this stage. It will fall further before we get to the depression stage of the cycle.

#226 Steve on 03.29.20 at 5:43 am

Please people.
Us private sector employees are getting laid off, and then given $2500 more a month, and public sector employees are still working. Give your heads a shake.

#227 Jager on 03.29.20 at 7:40 am

More evidence that this drug combination saves livee!

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1244224172928258053

#228 Renter's Revenge! on 03.29.20 at 8:33 am

#209 Dr V on 03.28.20 at 10:01 pm

Problem is, they can’t ask the question, “how do we make some money,” because the government doesn’t sell anything.

#229 Question for YVR_Lurker on 03.29.20 at 9:27 am

#211 yvr_lurker on 03.28.20 at 10:37 pm
204 You have 1400 engineer students?

———
I am the head of an entire team running this course…must make a good decision that is fair for everyone… a little tricky at this stage…

_____________________________

YVR_lurker, which high learning course? Is it “How to hate China for Dummies”?

#230 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.20 at 9:33 am

@#228 Renters Revenge
“Problem is, they can’t ask the question, “how do we make some money,” because the government doesn’t sell anything”

******

Nope……
Because they don’t care….”
Because the job is for life….”
Because the taxpayer is the bottomless pit of cash….”
Because the sense of entitlement is endless….”

As Ronald Regan once quipped,
The most horrifying words you can hear from a bureaucrat,
“I’m from the govt and I’m here to help.”

#231 neo on 03.29.20 at 9:49 am

Ryan,

You’ve lived though bear markets before but before 2008 none had the level of Fed intervention that we’ve seen and 2020 is exponentially going to eclipse 2008 so there is no point comparing. Without 2020 Fed intervention there would be a complete collapse…forget about picking a bottom. Besides, you are still ignoring the fact that The Fed injected $1 trillion in the Repo markets in September 2019 and January 2020 even before this virus was a real thing. This most certainly was a brewing financial crisis. Just because the epicenter isn’t directly US banks doesn’t make it not so. There are bubbles everywhere now that didn’t exist in 2008.

#232 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.20 at 9:58 am

hmmmm,
As Italy and Spain bury thousands…..and England muses that 20,000 dead would be acceptable…….

Either the govt officials in Saudi Arabia dont know how to count or someone is fibbing……..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-saudi/saudi-arabias-coronavirus-death-toll-doubles-to-eight-spokesman-idUSKBN21G0JU

#233 Dave on 03.29.20 at 9:59 am

#70 Ryan Lewenza

Thanks for the reply, I hope we are! But as the only fully employed worker on our block now (down from 10 with solid jobs), I’m guessing many won’t be. What’s the ripple effect on the economy of these key themes:

-remote working, specially with reits, major contractors, commuting (business travel as well), and all businesses dependent on a functioning downtown core.
-a world of germaphobes, specifically to the restaurant and travel industries.
-real estate’s lost year+; and who would want to be building houses?
-small businesses; what more needs to be said?
-increased home schooling?
-the environmental “economy”; all these high priced environmentally safe alternatives… do people care that much when they’re out of work?

Sure, the world has a way to self correct and huge opportunities will come from the shifts in the above, but this just doesn’t feel like as quick of a fix as the last few market crashes. V shaped recovery in light of all the above? It really feels like we’ve entered the twighlight zone, and could be stuck in it for a while…

#234 Dharma Bum on 03.29.20 at 10:00 am

It has been raining heavily today. Pouring, actually. I believe that this will wash the virus away. It will wash away the virus, and everybody’s troubles.

In the meantime, it’s a good day to stay inside. I’ll spend some time polishing and cleaning my Beretta and Ruger for when the Apocalypse comes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwtRpy7jrU8

#235 Ryan Lewenza on 03.29.20 at 10:06 am

greyhound “What if this experience is going to be quite different from 2008-2009? What if de-leveraging is just getting started?”

Mark Twain said “history doesn’t repeat but it rhymes”. Yes the particulars of this “event” or recession is different from the 2008 financial crisis but it’s still a recession where people lose their jobs, businesses go under, and economic activity contracts meaningfully. So the solutions will be different for this recession, but I believe the outcome will be much the same. Once we combat the pandemic, people will slowly return to normal, and then all the stimulus will kick in. I believe the recovery, when it comes, will be robust. – Ryan L

#236 RE Investor on 03.29.20 at 10:42 am

#8 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 03.28.20 at 10:56 am
LOL. Hey Happy, how’s your 6 cats, maybe 20 now! I was wondering where you were hiding.
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/12/18/common-sense-2/#comment-561017

#237 Millennial Realist on 03.29.20 at 10:48 am

As a semi-literate Boomer here who can’t even spell the name of the idol he has erotic dreams over just spelled it out (#230):

As Ronald Regan once quipped,
The most horrifying words you can hear from a bureaucrat,“I’m from the govt and I’m here to help.”

Here’s one that is much more terrifying:

“We’re from Corporate, and we’re here to help.”

Which one would you really pick, folks?

#238 Stone on 03.29.20 at 10:49 am

#221 SoggyShorts on 03.29.20 at 12:50 am
#78 Ryan Lewenza on 03.28.20 at 1:42 pm

Yes! We’re still down 25%+ and I do believe one year out you’ll be happy you did. – Ryan L
**********
Wait, what? Had me for a second there; you must mean “the market” when you say “we”, right? A 60/40 is down about half that I assume?
-22.08% sogg
-20.54% veqt
-16.72% vgro
-12.95% vbal

———

I assume more in the range of -17.25% to -17.50%.

#239 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.29.20 at 11:13 am

@#234 Dharma
“…..I’ll spend some time polishing and cleaning my Beretta ….”

*******

That comment begs the age old question……

“Dharma , Is that a pistol you’re polishing or are you just glad to see me?”

#240 yvr_lurker on 03.29.20 at 11:21 am

Question for YVR_Lurker
—————————–
I don’t care whether it came from live animal markets in China, India, Brazil etc… these have been established by scientists for new viruses to cross the species barrier…… but then again, if people like you have no faith in science or don’t care about the consequences, it will make little difference.

#241 MF on 03.29.20 at 11:24 am

“The central banks and governments came to the rescue and implemented the measures needed to turn the economy around leading to one of the strongest bull markets in history (yes with a lot more debt but we’ll deal with that in a decade).”

-Ryan,

What do you think that debt reckoning will look like? With all the spending our central banks have done this week, isn’t our ability combat any future recession greatly limited?

A decade may seem like a long time, but it’s not for a lot of your readers who are in their 20’s and 30’s who are trying to save for retirement. None of us want to see our retirement savings wiped out in a decade.

In short, what happens when the central banks are out of ammo? Isn’t that the case now?

MF

#242 TurnerNation on 03.29.20 at 11:32 am

I’m hearing people talking about up to 50% unemployment.
Possible. Almost Every public company has shuttered operations, laid off and even slashed the head offices.
About that virus you cannot have a reasonable discussion with most. They’ll scream exponentially and Italy at you. Bonus word: hospital ship.
Poll your associates and friends around the world for a real view.

> But please try this. The next person to try and shame you or embrace tyranny drop something like this:
“You know, having 50% unemployment is worth it for the countless lives we saved. In fact we should aim for 80%. If not for those incredibly selfish people still working we’d have saved many more people. Say are you working now?”

Stand back from spinning head.

#243 Flop... on 03.29.20 at 11:41 am

Easter is shaping up a little differently around here.

People don’t want any stupid chocolate eggs.

Hopefully, The Toilet Paper Bunny hides some bumwad in the backyard at random locations for us to find…

M45BC

#244 NotLegalAdvice on 03.29.20 at 12:05 pm

Call me optimistic or a little crazy, but I think we’ve bottomed out for the most part or very close to it.

There is light at the end of the tunnel. I see hope.

“Even after the darkest night, there’s a bright day after”.

#245 Don Guillermo on 03.29.20 at 1:16 pm

#203 Figure it Out on 03.28.20 at 9:13 pm
“I had forgotten all about the Bird Flu outbreak. But it infected 60 million Americans, hospitalised 200,000 Americans with deaths somewhere around 12,000… but there was no outcry or lockdowns.”
Well, the US is on track for over 12,000 dead from THIS bug by this time next week. Watch and see.
*****************************************
There have been just over 2000 reported deaths from Covid 19 to date.

But from the normal flu season “The CDC estimates that there have been 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in the United States so far this year.
Just for comparison, that’s a thousand times more deaths in the United States than have been blamed on the coronavirus so far. (this was published March 9, 2020”

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/09/813641072/u-s-flu-season-beginning-to-ease-modelers-say

#246 MF on 03.29.20 at 1:22 pm

#244 NotLegalAdvice on 03.29.20 at 12

Sure. You’re definitely optimistic, but also a little crazy :)

There is no positive news on the virus front. It’s just beginning actually. Take a peak at the world exponential curve to see where we are.

MF

#247 Ronaldo on 03.29.20 at 2:13 pm

#236 RE Investor on 03.29.20 at 10:42 am
#8 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 03.28.20 at 10:56 am
LOL. Hey Happy, how’s your 6 cats, maybe 20 now! I was wondering where you were hiding.
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/12/18/common-sense-2/#comment-561017
————————————————————-
Hiding in Fartz’s basement. Their related.

#248 Joe Di Nenno on 03.29.20 at 2:14 pm

Everyone seems to forget the positives about all this
1- at least Mother Earth is breathing better
2-my mortgage rate went down
3- I’m paying less for fuel
4-we are spending more time with immediate family
5-this is the beginning of a better North American System , resource , labour , technology all here
6-health care workers , supermarket workers , emergency services all deserve and are being appreciated. Not in any particular order
What else ?