The emergency

You may not like this post. You might think it comes from a privileged white guy with chiseled abs, nice hair and an epic dog (well, okay, that part is true.) You may view it as elitist. Or Boomerspeak. Too much rational, too little emotional. All true, too.

But, tough. Gotta be said.

This week came the stunning, unprecedented, knock-the-socks-off news that 3.48 million Americans just applied for jobless benefits. Washington’s overwhelmed. And us?  A million Canadians asked for EI benefits in the same period. There are ten times more of them, so do the math. When it comes to financial poochedness, we rule.

The virus is a tragedy. Many will sicken. Too many will die. Health care is under attack. Life is upended. Nothing’s normal. This cannot end soon enough.

When it does, there are lessons we must learn, behaviours to change and priorities to alter. The crisis we’re living through exposes a deep vein of personal failure running through society, making things worse. While tens of thousands may suffer sickness, millions are being slapped with the consequences of their dodgy financial decisions.

Look at the news.

The Keep Your Rent movement is spreading fast as untold numbers of tenants decide they cannot, or will not, make their monthly payment on Tuesday. In the space of two weeks money has evaporated along with paycheques. No savings. No cash reserves. No plan. Now that most provinces have outlawed evictions, landlords – big property owners or small-time investors – all face their own cash flow crisis. The paycheque-to-paycheque society is folding.

As for homeowners with mortgages, the situation appears just as bleak. Since announcing they would allow six months of payment deferrals, the banks have been bombed. Almost a quarter million responses. Call centres are melting down. Four and five hours on hold. The response has been immense and historic. Who knew so many people would be unable to survive a single month in their homes without cash flow?

And now we have the CERB – Canada Emergency Response Benefit – the most dramatic, far-reaching government program, ever. Over four million people, or almost a quarter of the entire workforce, are expected to apply once the process starts a week from Monday. It will pay $2,000 a month until the autumn to anyone over the age of 15 who earned as little as $5,000 in the past twelve months and has suffered 14 or more days off because of the virus.  It’ll cost $25 billion over just 16 weeks.

Said the prime minister: “This is an unprecedented situation with an overwhelming demand by Canadians to get money as quickly as possible. We need to make sure we’re getting that money out quickly but also reliably to Canadians and that means doing things that government hasn’t done before and scaling up our processes extremely quickly.”

And, as mentioned, about a million people applied for EI this week. That’s atop the 500,000 who asked last week. Just a fraction of those claims have been settled, since the government is besieged. Meanwhile provinces are throwing in more. BC is giving renters $500 each. Ontario is sending $200 to parents for each child, among many other actions. The feds today told banks to slash credit card rates.

Now, let’s be clear. Governments have no choice. They’ve shut down society. Jobs, employers and companies are being destroyed. Economic demand is being erased. The right to make money and support your family has been stripped away in the name of public health. This is not the fault of any tenant, landlord, homeowner, small business guy or employee. It just happened. It’s unfair and life-altering.

If leaders do not support people, the economy will crater for years. It will take a generation to rebuild. This will be a revisit of the 1930s. It cannot happen. Nor will it.

But let’s call this for what it is – a nation that’s ventured down a dangerous path. For years we were warned about an economic shock and our runaway debt. Our lack of savings. Our house lust. Our bad habits. Our wants. Here it is. Witness the results.

As the jobs tide goes out, millions are exposed swimming naked. Seventy per cent of us have real estate, but no money. Just as a majority are without pensions, or savings. Did we never expect a reversal? An emergency? Now that public debt will balloon wildly to save our collective asses, we’re creating a future of diminished promise and greater tax for every child alive.

Will we learn, and change? Or will we blame landlords, the wealthy, China?

I told Dorothy I’d be writing about responsibility and consequences today. “They’ll hate you,” she said.

Probably, I answered, recalling what a lousy politician I was.

About the photo: After being released by his owner from a burning structure, the dog went back in to rescue his buddy. A kitten.

415 comments ↓

#1 Apocalypse2020 on 03.26.20 at 1:41 pm

More to come.

You can still spend valuable time getting prepared.

Leaving large urban centres may be very wise for your long term well-being.

#2 Penny Henny on 03.26.20 at 1:44 pm

#250 Sail Away on 03.26.20 at 11:37 am
Ok, folks, here were the big jumps:

IEP- 47% (plus 22% divvy. Shut the front door!)
SOM.L- 46%
SU- 40%
STOR- 69%

Plenty more in the 30s. Berkshire, strangely, only +14%. Probably still coming.

Yowza
////////////

Sail Away, you are like a teacher during the Corona virus lock down. You’ve got no class.

#3 trailor_sailor on 03.26.20 at 1:48 pm

Feel like I should point out the change in tone over the past month, from “the bold shall reap” to “the economy will crater for years” (yes, I know you said “nor will it”…but you don’t actually have evidence showing that…).

M 2 cents? $ to consumers is self-evidently a better play than corporate bailouts. Will the debt (personal or public) sink us? Not till we have productivity shortfalls in the real economy.

Stay home, socially distance, and by July we might all start to get back to paying it all off!

Parse the words. No change. The pandemic will end. The bold will be rewarded. And people need jobs more than bailouts. – Garth

#4 BlogDog123 on 03.26.20 at 1:52 pm

Remember that video of Elizabeth Warren and person about “erasing student debt”:

The responsible father asks “what about me, I saved and sacrificed and paid it off, where is my money?, while my friend who partied, vacationed and did not sacrifice for kids’ education gets your no-strings debt relief money. How is that fair??”

Same kind of thing… every dollar handout should be a “loan” to be paid back over a long time… right off the tax refund every year.

#5 Love this Blog on 03.26.20 at 1:53 pm

Always lived well below my means. After recovery from a divorce 14 years ago, I battened the hatches down even more.

Today, at 53, I sit mortgage free, debt free, and able to retire at 58.

There are some hard hard lessons coming for a lot of people this time

Thanks for what you do Garth

#6 not 1st on 03.26.20 at 1:58 pm

Garth, you touched on lots of good points, there are so much more.

What about people realizing their job is non essential and the first to be swept away in crisis probably to be replace with automation.

What about being under house arrest in your condo.

What about actually realizing the economy doesn’t run on pixies and rainbows like heir Trudeau told you.

What about actually realizing that shutting down Canada lifeblood, resources and transport, taxing it into oblivion actually boomerangs right into your own shocked face.

What about being so clueless that you will give up all your civil liberties just to pay your rent.

What about waking up to the fact that open border have consequences.

What about realizing that your idea of a new green with overflowing economy is BS.

What about realizing that when you vote for a govt thinking it will take from someone else to give to you, usually backfires hard.

Will any of them learn? Of course not, so the pain is well earned.

#7 not 1st on 03.26.20 at 1:59 pm

Just for reference, I suspended my mortgage payments to invest in the stock market.

#8 Jeff in Vic on 03.26.20 at 1:59 pm

Keep up the good work. Daily dose of reality is needed to keep us sane. We as Canadians will come together to help each other. I would rather be here than South of the border.

#9 Joe Schmoe on 03.26.20 at 2:00 pm

Our economic strategy of rampant and irresponsible consumerism failed.

People will suffer, but it was not sustainable, so they were always going to suffer. It was just a matter of what would be the last straw.

Covid19 just tipped it over quickly and unexpectedly. It was not the cause of failure.

No one really knows what this virus would do if we just let it run it’s course. It’s all assumption and modeling. China seems awfully scared of a resurgence…they just closed their borders.

The fact that we continue to ignore the advice of educated people who better understand infectious disease is Darwinism at it’s finest.

#10 JF on 03.26.20 at 2:04 pm

Well said.
I’ve felt poor for many years as I was saving for a rainy day and not spending like everyone else going for the big home, vacations south, etc. For twenty years I couldn’t understand why the average Federal government employee or real estate agent was driving a BMW and I was driving a Subaru while I assumed I was earning more than them. Now there’s a storm, and surprise, those who did not save will pay the price. Sorry, but tough luck.
Again, well said Garth.

#11 Lefty on 03.26.20 at 2:04 pm

Thank you for saying what no one else will say.. This needs to be heard.

#12 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 2:05 pm

#2 Penny Henny on 03.26.20 at 1:44 pm
#250 Sail Away on 03.26.20 at 11:37 am

Ok, folks, here were the big jumps:

IEP- 47% (plus 22% divvy. Shut the front door!)
SOM.L- 46%
SU- 40%
STOR- 69%

Plenty more in the 30s. Berkshire, strangely, only +14%. Probably still coming.

Yowza

——————-

Sail Away, you are like a teacher during the Corona virus lock down. You’ve got no class.

——————-

You must have forgotten this is a financial blog.

Am I sorry I made money? Am I sorry it makes you feel bad? Nah.

You could very well do the same instead of taking weak jabs at me.

I’ve learned something from you, though, Penny. Back when you boasted about taking your employer to the cleaners, I took heed. Hence, when we re-signed the entire remaining office staff to hourly contracts last week, we included very specific clauses with accepted legal precedent. Thanks!

#13 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 03.26.20 at 2:05 pm

dogs are great
beer is good
people are crazy

#14 yvr_lurker on 03.26.20 at 2:06 pm

I agree with what you wrote. However, the idea that a pandemic would engulf the entire planet and lead to a lockdown almost everywhere, was not on the forefront of the minds of Gov’t, little people just trying to earn a living etc… This was not a “risk” that was calculated and prepared for in the minds of almost everyone. It does highlight though how fragile many people’s finances are and how the society is not at all prepared for such a lockdown.

I differ though on one key point. We absolutely need social distancing from China going forward; our key medicines need to be made more locally and I hope that Gov’ts will realize the perils of such extensive globalization, whereby something as seemingly innocuous as live animal markets in fact jeopardizes us all.

#15 Phylis on 03.26.20 at 2:08 pm

Garth we love you.
Ps. Do you bank community service time for your efforts here? (Then you could gift some to a few that know not what the are about to do)

#16 twentyeight on 03.26.20 at 2:08 pm

Preaching to the choir on your blog with this one, Garth.

You don’t have anything to say to help anyone feel better here? I’m not worried for myself yet, because I’m young and my boss told me I still have at job until June when they’ll re-assess…

But I’m worried about my Dad. Who has been a responsible saver full of integrity and good examples and set to retire next year. He currently can’t sleep at night. He’s been dreaming his retirement dream and doing his time. Now recently, he has watched his portfolio get washed out. What are people like him supposed to do? Like a lot of people his age, he has a pension, but now he’s crushed that he won’t have the equity for a retirement property next year.

A balanced portfolio has not been ‘washed out,’ and this week has been restoring. If your dad can’t sleep, fire the financial advisor. He has one, right? – Garth

#17 Post on 03.26.20 at 2:09 pm

The truth hurts. You’ve been telling us for over a decade that it might and to prepare.

#18 BillyBob on 03.26.20 at 2:09 pm

“Who knew so many people would be unable to survive a single month in their homes without cash flow?”

Um, anyone paying attention in the last ten years?

;-)

#19 nicky on 03.26.20 at 2:11 pm

this post emphasizes the importance of saving for the rainy day. tried buying a reit and a bank today.

#20 Curious on 03.26.20 at 2:12 pm

#7 not 1st

“Just for reference, I suspended my mortgage payments to invest in the stock market”
———————————————
What are you going to do if the market is lower in 6 months?

#21 Lost...but not leased on 03.26.20 at 2:13 pm

I told Dorothy I’d be writing about responsibility and consequences today. “They’ll hate you,” she said.

Probably, I answered, recalling what a lousy politician I was.

======================
Thanks Garth !!! :

Often..they shoot the messenger…but in these interesting times we all need a strong dose of reality.

You’ve laid out the UNvarnished truth.

#22 Chris Scott on 03.26.20 at 2:14 pm

I’m one of those successful, self-incorporated ones targeted by T2 and Morneau.

I need no handouts.

I’m able to continue paying my quarterly Corp tax installments (~$15k / quarter) as well as personal taxes on-time.

#23 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 2:15 pm

Thanks Garth.

You haven’t offended me at all, since I stopped believing in the Corvid right after the Diamond Princess and have put my energy toward finding profitable cracks.

Not sure if that’s come across in previous posts, or if I was too subtle.

I might try to stop ridiculing the true believers even though it’s infinitely amusing. Much like tossing a ball into a school of flying fish and watching them explode in all directions.

#24 Curious on 03.26.20 at 2:16 pm

#7 not 1st

Anyways, I call BS. The banks only will let you suspend your mortgage payment if you don’t have the cash. If you’re sitting on a pile of cash, they won’t cut you any slack. Nice try.

#25 Off Duty on 03.26.20 at 2:18 pm

Thanks for all (well most)the wisdom and advise over the years. Worked hard , raised a family, bought a house and paid off the 25 yr mortgage in 12 years, saved for retirement, built up a $30 000 emergency fund. My family and I are well prepared however once the health crisis passes I fear those of us that worked hard and did the right thing by always living slightly below our means will become even bigger targets of the government and those that failed to plan for this!

#26 Mikeshouse on 03.26.20 at 2:18 pm

I have followed You advice here ever since I read your book Garth. I can say I have savings and we will be okay for a while.
However, my wife is still working at Tims flogging coffee out the drive through window every day from this one to that at all hours. Its seems a Hot ,Smooth and creamy double double is an essential service as well. People however, as broke as they are.. Very… reluctant to give up their little luxuries. She might as well be flogging hand sanitizer. Job Security, no problem.

#27 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 2:19 pm

Shawn Allen:

People don’t say you’re disliked, they just say the golf club invited you to join because they needed someone to shun.

#28 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.26.20 at 2:20 pm

@#4 BlogDog
“every dollar handout should be a “loan” to be paid back over a long time… right off the tax refund every year.”
++++

100% agreement.
The “savers” who prepared for a cash emergency will end up paying for the “spenders” who didnt prepare.

The cash should be a loan to be repaid over time/tax refunds/etc.

#29 Penny Henny on 03.26.20 at 2:24 pm

Email from Merdian CU.
Mortgage rates going up as of tomorrow
5 Yr fixed
insured from 2.29 to 2.54
uninsured from 2.59 to 2.85

I told you why yesterday. – Garth

#30 Cto on 03.26.20 at 2:26 pm

Suffer? People will suffer, really?
All this money coming I to the system, it appears to me that they will carry on as usual. Stay home and enjoy the free money people …working is just an old school idea that is dying off anyway.
Modern monetary Theory!
Looks like all governments and political parties have joined this group.
There will be no turning back print print print those debts away!!!
Honestly Garth, give up…

#31 Penny Henny on 03.26.20 at 2:30 pm

#29 Penny Henny on 03.26.20 at 2:24 pm
Email from Merdian CU.
Mortgage rates going up as of tomorrow
5 Yr fixed
insured from 2.29 to 2.54
uninsured from 2.59 to 2.85

I told you why yesterday. – Garth

……….

I know, just reporting back Sir.

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.26.20 at 2:31 pm

@#30 Cto

It will be interesting to see if this and other govts around the world are spending us into tax purgatory….

#33 not 1st on 03.26.20 at 2:31 pm

#13 Curious on 03.26.20 at 2:16 pm

Who said I have all my business at one bank?

There is unsold crop in the bin, they don’t know about that either, unless heir Trudeau is sending the army to check it out.

#34 Penny Henny on 03.26.20 at 2:33 pm

1:48 p.m.: Premier Doug Ford says it is “disgusting” that Pusateri’s is charging $30 for hand wipes. A “furious” Ford says cabinet will impose measures to stop price gouging.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/03/26/canada-reports-3409-confirmed-and-presumptive-cases-of-covid-19-us-senate-passes-22-trillion-economic-rescue-package.html

I guess if you can afford to shop at Pusateri’s then you don’t have to worry about bumping into the unwashed.

#35 Dave on 03.26.20 at 2:35 pm

I dont qualify for any of these government hand out BUT I will be taxed to death once this virus blows over and life is back to normal

#36 QuebecCityOliver on 03.26.20 at 2:39 pm

I don’t think you will receive so much hate, Garth. Most will likely be posting that they prepared for a rainy day and will endure this downturn.

But expect lots of BS like #7 – Not 1st – who might as well be ‘Murican spewing garbage about open borders while simultaneously complaining that tourism has stopped and people have lost their jobs.

#37 Gordon on 03.26.20 at 2:41 pm

“ I told Dorothy I’d be writing about responsibility and consequences today. “They’ll hate you,” she said.”

Not quite lol, you’re preaching to the choir

You will get less than 10 of 350 posts in that vein

The vast majority will laud you

Let’s keep it 100

#38 Franco on 03.26.20 at 2:41 pm

We have been warned and many chose to ignore the warnings and sunk themselves to lifelong debt, known as modern slavery. Excellent post.

#39 Katherine on 03.26.20 at 2:42 pm

#4 BlogDog 123

I totally agree with you. Why should the people who were financially responsible be punished for those who foolishly spent more than they earned and failed to have a rainy day account.

As for the photo Garth, it totally melted my heart especially after reading “about the photo.” Thanks for posting kitty photos every once in awhile.

#40 Millennial905er on 03.26.20 at 2:44 pm

Worldwide money and markets, visualized:

https://i0.wp.com/money.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/all-the-worlds-money-mp-infographic-1360.png

Feel your blood pressure increase as you scroll down.

#41 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 2:45 pm

Shawn Allen,

Thank you for demonstrating that it’s ok to insult and denigrate those who do not share one’s opinion, and then to righteously double down.

You ball of earwax.

#42 Cristian on 03.26.20 at 2:51 pm

For years I have been trying to teach my now twenty-something y.o. son about responsibility and consequences, about saving and being prepared for hard times.
His answer? “I want to live, and not just survive.”
So I gave up… Some people are only able to learn through hardship and after suffering the consequences of their own mistakes. Some, not even then. Few are those willing to really learn from others.

#43 Andrea on 03.26.20 at 2:57 pm

“Now that pubic debt will balloon wildly to save our collective asses”
I know what you meant, but I really like this typo :)

#44 Ronaldo on 03.26.20 at 2:58 pm

That has to be one of he best photos ever. Great post today Garth. Telling it like it is.

#45 Lost...but not leased on 03.26.20 at 2:59 pm

Not just residential renters that want help:
This will not end well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/commercial-property-market-freezes-with-virus-battering-economy

#46 Reynolds753 on 03.26.20 at 2:59 pm

Mr. Turner all of your points have full merit. It is unfortunate that many people have no sense of tomorrow or proverbial rainy days. My now deceased mother was an immigrant from Ireland with little formal education. She worked for Bell Canada as an operator. Her mantra to me was that for every dollar you made you need to save one half of it. Of course, she lived well within her means. She did this and died a relatively prosperous woman owning her home in Toronto and living a comfortable life. If only more could be like her.

My fear is those that have not made the plans for bad times. Two quotes from Edmund Burke come to mind on this. “In a democracy, the majority of the citizens is capable of exercising the most cruel oppressions upon the minority.” “When the leaders choose to make themselves bidders at an auction of popularity, their talents, in the construction of the state, will be of no service. They will become flatterers instead of legislators; the instruments, not the guides, of the people.”

Those with nothing will look at those with wherewithal and demand a share.

I doubt that the government would countenance “a whiff of grapeshot”.

#47 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 3:05 pm

#40 Millennial905er on 03.26.20 at 2:44 pm

Worldwide money and markets, visualized:

https://i0.wp.com/money.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/all-the-worlds-money-mp-infographic-1360.png

Feel your blood pressure increase as you scroll down.

———————-

Blood pressure? Maybe from excitement. We live right next to this absolute global powerhouse and have full access to their markets.

Talk about opportunity!

#48 T on 03.26.20 at 3:05 pm

If the comments in this blog are any indication of how Canadians come together in times of need, we are all screwed.

I’m looking at you Sail Aways, Shawn Allen, Penny Henny…

Can we at least try to be constructive and leave the childish name calling behind.

#49 JohnAB on 03.26.20 at 3:06 pm

millions are being slapped with the consequences of their dodgy financial decisions

And why is that bad? Why not facing the results of your decisions should be a normal thing? Why there are people waiting for someone to come to rescue them? If a person is not smart enough to be able to make proper decisions, why should that person feel safe about it? “Oh, I put my head on the railway, but nobody told me that the train might chop it off”. If those people are saved from their bad decisions, they will never learn. And this way we will get closer to an idiocracy. A child should touch the fire to know that it is hot! So please, stop protecting the stupid.

#50 Mattl on 03.26.20 at 3:12 pm

No mention of the role large corps play in this? I don’t have an issue with this post, or previous ones, but you don’t seem very interested in the biggest issue here – the inability for large corporations to plan or save for events like this. If Delta, or Hilton, or any of the other large business that are going to get 500B in bailout can’t save for a rainy day, why should a guy making 17 bucks an hour be expected to do so?

I think pointing the finger at individuals in whistling past the graveyard. There are systematic issues with the way corp America is structured that need to be addressed. We, the taxpayers, shouldn’t have to bail these guys out every few decades.

#51 Femdom Fist on 03.26.20 at 3:16 pm

I’m still going to pay my rent – of course, unless the landlord offers a break. I am tempted to try to negotiate a lower rent, though.

I’m not a marxist catgirl.

#52 Stan Brooks on 03.26.20 at 3:18 pm

Simple reality check.
What is unsustainable will fail.
The hosing market, the construction business, tourism, the services, non-essentials retail will all fail.
There is no recovery from this one.

If there were savings surplus, real industry and economy as opposed to pure ‘financialization’ and credit driven madness things would have been very different.

Asking for responsibility in this place? You are 15 years too late.

One reaps what one sow.

I never imagined in my wildest nightmares such a quick fall but whatever is built on sand can not persist. The first storm will destroy it and we are in the beginning of a historic hurricane.

Best case we lose 50 – 60 % of the economy and ‘recover’ up to 30-40 % loss. Up to a year of disturbance, some people will never ever work again, 25 % bottom for unemployment going forward, minimum guaranteed income.

Worse case – over 2-3 years. Supply chains will never completely recover. Waking up to a new world where everything is outsourced and little of substance left.

It is interesting to see how as reality sets in all that arrogance, superiority complex, confidence and greed turns into a raw survival fear. What was I preaching for years here in this blog? And people choose to ignore and laughed.

No laughing any more, I guess. Imagine all the debt slaves stuck in the expensive noisy substandard condo or crack shack with no job or income but with huge mortgage and ‘generous’ banks who choose to deffer mortgage payments of broke borrowers by including the interest into the principle… How generous.

As for the inflation, watch out in the next 3-5 years: Price of food and essentials will probably double.

Watching the 9-10 % mortality rate in Italy shows how much were the original numbers cooked. This is not a fake crisis, it is one of a century crisis.

Very few are prepared for what is to come.
Stay coll, lose that arrogance and thinks smart. Life will go on/for some.

Cheers,

#53 JohnAB on 03.26.20 at 3:19 pm

Will we learn, and change? Or will we blame landlords, the wealthy, China?

Let’s blame the others. It’s easier to blame someone else than to try to understand your own mistakes.. no?

I told Dorothy I’d be writing about responsibility and consequences today. “They’ll hate you,” she said.
To everyone who sees this comment: if you feel like you hate today’s post, slap yourself twice. Maybe this will bring you to your senses. Then start reflecting on the following:
1. You’ve definitely made some bad decisions and now you don’t like the truth when it is told to you
2. Try remembering why did you get where you are. Who pushed you there. How did it happen. Learn from it, so you don’t do it again.
3. Embrace the thought that you are not the smartest and you deserve what you’ve got.
4. Find a way out. Or start blaming the others, it’s easier that way.

#54 Ian Whittal on 03.26.20 at 3:20 pm

Curious on your thoughts on vehicle leases and car payments during this crisis? No abatement on payments there.

#55 Sask to AB on 03.26.20 at 3:21 pm

Well said, Garth. What we needed to hear.

F57AB

#56 Canadian Moose on 03.26.20 at 3:22 pm

Dogs are heroes! Always! They even save us from ourselves.

Thoughts from the Hinterland

#57 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 3:24 pm

#49 Mattl on 03.26.20 at 3:12 pm

There are systematic issues with the way corp America is structured that need to be addressed.

We, the taxpayers, shouldn’t have to bail these guys out…

———

You won’t have to, because they’re, like, in America.

That’s another country.

#58 Lost...but not leased on 03.26.20 at 3:24 pm

#48 JohnAB on 03.26.20 at 3:06 pm
millions are being slapped with the consequences of their dodgy financial decisions

And why is that bad? Why not facing the results of your decisions should be a normal thing? Why there are people waiting for someone to come to rescue them?

=============================

Our economic system has been corrupted for decades.

What has happened was inevitable, and long overdue.

What happens next is anyone’s guess.

#59 Mikeshouse on 03.26.20 at 3:26 pm

#35 Dave

Mmmhmm….I can’t fathom how the taxes are going to be implemented for the people with a government that’s going into 100 billion plus of debt. Its well over twice what Harper brought out in 2008, which I often hear people chastise.
If you are a millennial…May your Dog help you and if there ever was some reason to not to be unhappy, with what’s certainly coming now..it will be flame on!

#60 Attrition on 03.26.20 at 3:29 pm

You went easy on us, Garth. Being fiscally responsible and prepared is one thing. Epic fail by vast majority, for sure.

But as for being responsible and prepared in other ways–emotional, medical, physical, priorities, abilities, skills, values–we are, by and large, even worse off and less deserving of help, forgiveness, or understanding.

Thus, toilet paper panics.

Anyway, the phrase dead cat bounce has been thrown around lately. The jump in the markets over the past three days seems to fit the dead cat pattern.

Driven by wanton gov’t stimulus and spending, unaffected by Depression-era job loss numbers, the markets seem to be surging forward like a blind drunk meth-head.

Can’t possibly be sustainable.

Dead cats rarely last consecutive sessions nor add 20%. Markets are anticipating what we all know will be the reality in six months. – Garth

#61 Sold Out on 03.26.20 at 3:36 pm

Do we have too much debt…yes.
Were we sold out by our business and political elites…yes
Is this the end of the foolish globalization scheme…yes

#62 FreeBird on 03.26.20 at 3:36 pm

Maybe a percentage applying for mortg relief doing it bc they can? Offer chance to save a few thousand and many will try. Dose of real life for most who didn’t know (or care) what a recession or true public emerg was (not lack of WIFI). Hard lesson. Know a few who’ve done/doing major renos and felt like odd one out. Good to be diff now. Stay safe. Hoard money not TP. (still quarantined)

Yes, but in reality deferring mortgage payments will end up increasing overall loan debt and costing people more. – Garth

#63 Leftover on 03.26.20 at 3:38 pm

There’ll be surtaxes, like those in the Chretien/Martin years, to address some of the new debt. Likely will apply to people that never imagined themselves to be “rich”, maybe as low as $60,000 a year. God help anyone who makes $200k.

Wealth taxes? Maybe, but not much wealth to tax in this country. Most stock is owned by pension funds and insurance companies, housing is heading for a deep ditch. Private equity wealth is difficult to value – what’s a car dealership actually worth?

It’s going to be tough when the 4 months of CERB payments come to an end. That’s when the Liberal’s true colors will be exposed.

#64 Doug in London on 03.26.20 at 3:38 pm

millions are being slapped with the consequences of their dodgy financial decisions.
—————————————————————–
Here’s something I read in the paper back in early December: Poloz decided against further lowering interest rates because of Canadian households propensity to borrow the maximum amount banks will give them.
That debt represents an important vulnerability because it would exacerbate the pain of an economic downturn caused by trade wars or other external factors.
I saw wow, sounds like words of wisdom from a prophet, as we see that external factor now. It’s no wonder the BG, benevolent government, is giving out more in rescue money than Americans will get. The public deficit and debt will explode like an atomic bomb. So how will the BG ever repay that debt? I doubt it will all ever be repaid, but expect more taxes when the economy recovers. What’s your best defense? As all this extra money works its way into the economy assets like stocks and equity ETFs will recover so a disproportionate amount of gains will flow to equities like it did in mid 2009 and on. It’s questionable how fair that is, but that’s what happens. Wouldn’t YOU like to be in a situation where you get back some or all of the money you paid in taxes to the BG? Well, hope you picked up some DIRT CHEAP stocks and ETFs last week. If not, you need to get in on the next down day if there is one.

#65 akashic record on 03.26.20 at 3:42 pm

No need to panic, the whole universe is just a simulation.

Speaking of renters, like other assetless class, they must rely on low-class Keep Your Rent-type solutions. They can’t just speed-dial the members of the political class to arrange fast and furious bailout.

#66 JohnAB on 03.26.20 at 3:43 pm

#56 Lost…but not leased on 03.26.20 at 3:24 pm
Our economic system has been corrupted for decades.

And still everybody makes his/her own decisions in life, and they have to face the consequences.

#67 Marco on 03.26.20 at 3:44 pm

And I would blame China because it is not the first time.
Rich who sold you an idea that you are middle class because you can buy big Tv and cell phones . they are self isolating out of slums this days….

#68 Bounce on 03.26.20 at 3:44 pm

#58 Attrition on 03.26.20 at 3:29 pm
You went easy on us, Garth. Being fiscally responsible and prepared is one thing. Epic fail by vast majority, for sure.

But as for being responsible and prepared in other ways–emotional, medical, physical, priorities, abilities, skills, values–we are, by and large, even worse off and less deserving of help, forgiveness, or understanding.

Thus, toilet paper panics.

Anyway, the phrase dead cat bounce has been thrown around lately. The jump in the markets over the past three days seems to fit the dead cat pattern.

Driven by wanton gov’t stimulus and spending, unaffected by Depression-era job loss numbers, the markets seem to be surging forward like a blind drunk meth-head.

Can’t possibly be sustainable.

Dead cats rarely last consecutive sessions nor add 20%. Markets are anticipating what we all know will be the reality in six months. – Garth

_______________________________________________

I’m not complaining as I bought a ton of equities last week and earlier this week. But no way this rally is sustainable. Too fast, too hard and far too early while ignoring horrific job numbers with so much uncertainty ahead. Oil at $22? Possibly 100 million thrown out of work, even temporarily, when combining EU and North America by May? Corporate revenues slammed and haven’t even reported Q1 or Q2?

We will test new lows and I’ll be shopping again ;)

#69 T-Rev on 03.26.20 at 3:46 pm

Nailed it, Gartho. Have some acquaintances who got back from Mexico and are in 14 day isolation as a result. Mid 30s. She’s operates a small business that is required to shut through this. He works public sector, but won’t be paid during the two weeks of isolation.

I had to take them groceries so they could eat, not because they’re quarantined, but because they’re broke. Literally sobbing on the phone that this has bankrupt them. Not enough cash to last 2 weeks, but they went to Mexico. Unbelievable, and unbelievably common as we’re learning.

#70 Marco on 03.26.20 at 3:47 pm

DELETED

#71 Deplorable Dude on 03.26.20 at 3:50 pm

The official Canadian government Covid-19 Epidemiological Stats are severely lacking…..

The 2 most important factors aren’t being shown.

1) Running mortality rates. So you can see whether we are experiencing a rise or fall in deaths, and at what rate.

2) Demographics of mortality. What age groups of most affected? Underlying conditions?

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html?topic=tilelink

#72 Surfsideboomer on 03.26.20 at 3:51 pm

Preaching to the choir!! So many people need to hear your words Garth. Keep them coming. I await each day to hear your guidance. From the bottom of my heart I thank you.

#73 FreeBird on 03.26.20 at 3:54 pm

Post on UE rate est for US…

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/march/back-envelope-estimates-next-quarters-unemployment-rate?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=SM&utm_content=stlouisfed&utm_campaign=7b191c62-4439-4257-8701-7970d6df5c79

#74 joblo on 03.26.20 at 3:54 pm

Non confidence yet?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-ottawa-faces-criticism-for-sending-16-tonnes-of-personal-protective/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trudeaus-coronavirus-power-grab-11585174923

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kelly-mcparland-was-the-liberals-attempted-power-grab-really-about-the-coronavirus

#75 Another Deckchair on 03.26.20 at 3:55 pm

@12 Sail Away:

“I’ve learned something from you, though, Penny. Back when you boasted about taking your employer to the cleaners, I took heed. Hence, when we re-signed the entire remaining office staff to hourly contracts last week, we included very specific clauses with accepted legal precedent. Thanks!”

I remember that posting by Penny Henny. Was not impressed at the time at the character traits shown.

Sail Away; good for you for taking heed of Penny’s warning about greed.

#76 Yukon Elvis on 03.26.20 at 3:59 pm

This is working out pretty well for the Libs. Display the virtue, give more free stuff to indebted people who did not save/invest and who live one pay check away from insolvency. Then make the responsible saver/investors pay for it. Should get them re-elected for a third term.

#77 wallflower on 03.26.20 at 4:00 pm

Kitties deserve dogs, too. But not all dogs.

A super lovely human being dark-of-night deposited a box of kittens on our property some summers past – they were about 2 weeks old.

A Jack Russell was brought for a visit – he bee-lined for the box, pulled one out, snapped its neck and took off into the woods to bury it. Returned for kitten #2…

#78 Damifino on 03.26.20 at 4:00 pm

Today’s post needed no warning preamble. It contains nothing any sane person could or should disagree with.

What happened: The tide went out unexpectedly exposing the untenable state of Canadian financial affairs this blog has been harping on for a decade.

Unexpectedly? Really? There are epidemiologists who, like Garth, have been shouting into the wind for years about our woeful state of preparedness for the next pandemic which was most assuredly on the way.

There’s days I weep for humanity. I’m left with no choice but to worry mostly about number one. And I just hate to have to be that way. BTW, I will be paying my rent from my own resources, as usual.

#79 FreeBird on 03.26.20 at 4:02 pm

#61 FreeBird on 03.26.20 at 3:36 pm
Maybe a percentage applying for mortg relief doing it bc they can? Offer chance to save a few thousand and many will try. Dose of real life for most who didn’t know (or care) what a recession or true public emerg was (not lack of WIFI). Hard lesson. Know a few who’ve done/doing major renos and felt like odd one out. Good to be diff now. Stay safe. Hoard money not TP. (still quarantined)
———————
Yes, but in reality deferring mortgage payments will end up increasing overall loan debt and costing people more. – Garth
———————-
Yes, why we’re avoiding. Could be wrong but seems like interest will be type of balloon pyt. Not good either way.

#80 Tater on 03.26.20 at 4:04 pm

#12 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 2:05 pm
#2 Penny Henny on 03.26.20 at 1:44 pm
#250 Sail Away on 03.26.20 at 11:37 am

Ok, folks, here were the big jumps:

IEP- 47% (plus 22% divvy. Shut the front door!)
SOM.L- 46%
SU- 40%
STOR- 69%

Plenty more in the 30s. Berkshire, strangely, only +14%. Probably still coming.

Yowza

——————-

Sail Away, you are like a teacher during the Corona virus lock down. You’ve got no class.

——————-

You must have forgotten this is a financial blog.

Am I sorry I made money? Am I sorry it makes you feel bad? Nah.

You could very well do the same instead of taking weak jabs at me.

I’ve learned something from you, though, Penny. Back when you boasted about taking your employer to the cleaners, I took heed. Hence, when we re-signed the entire remaining office staff to hourly contracts last week, we included very specific clauses with accepted legal precedent. Thanks!
———————————————————–
Constructively dismissed your workforce without any consideration? Bold strategy Cotton.

And bragging about being basically flat in this market is pretty sad. Had a 35% peak to trough move (so far) in SPY, with vol exploding. Should be up 20% or so. Or maybe that just me.

#81 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 4:06 pm

The recovery will roar.

Stocks went to the toilet and oil joined in.

Now, it’s being realized the cold is way overblown… and there’s cheap oil. And bags of free money.

We’re not seeing US market lows again. If you missed it.. too bad; try for the next one. TSX will be low, but it’s a bad bet.

If you fail to achieve financial independence within the next year, consider that you may be either deliberately obtuse, or allowing emotion to rule your financial plan.

This may be the single greatest opportunity in your life. Don’t squander it.

#82 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.26.20 at 4:07 pm

I don’t know what the record for replies to a post is here, but I’ll bet you’ll break it today.

You are going to get deluged by butthurt Moisters, the perpetually offended, and the always have a cause SJWs.

I 100% agree with you as any rational ADULT would.

Good luck.

#83 Attrition on 03.26.20 at 4:08 pm

#67 Bounce on 03.26.20 at 3:44 pm

#58 Attrition on 03.26.20 at 3:29 pm
You went easy on us, Garth. Being fiscally responsible and prepared is one thing. Epic fail by vast majority, for sure.

Dead cats rarely last consecutive sessions nor add 20%. Markets are anticipating what we all know will be the reality in six months. – Garth

#67 Bounce on 03.26.20 at 3:44 pm
We will test new lows and I’ll be shopping again ;)

It probably reflects poorly on my financial state of mind these days, but I sorta hope you’re both right.

#84 Marco on 03.26.20 at 4:11 pm

Universal basic income, so people would have a choice.
Less and steady or bursting rat race serving a man….

#85 akashic record on 03.26.20 at 4:14 pm

“our runaway debt. Our lack of savings. Our house lust. Our bad habits. Our wants.”

They provided a hell of a ride for the equities we own, though… we have to admit it, when administering judgements.

#86 Ed McNeil on 03.26.20 at 4:14 pm

I have to agree with the Donald on this one, The cure is worse than the disease. You simply cannot shut the world down beyond a few days and ever expect recovery.

#87 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 4:14 pm

#74 Another Deckchair on 03.26.20 at 3:55 pm
@12 Sail Away:

I remember that posting by Penny Henny. Was not impressed at the time at the character traits shown.

Sail Away; good for you for taking heed of Penny’s warning about greed.

——————

I once found a quarter in the manure pile. Never discount the source.

#88 Marco on 03.26.20 at 4:14 pm

China will foot the bill, because USA will refuse to service their debt which China bought.
That is only way. Or landlords will perish…

#89 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.26.20 at 4:15 pm

@#6 Not 1st.

Great post.

#90 wallflower on 03.26.20 at 4:16 pm

#40 Millennial905er on 03.26.20 at 2:44 pm
Worldwide money and markets, visualized:

WOW
Clearly the next pandemic is derivatives

I can hear Trump already:
I have derivatives. We have huge derivatives. Our country has the best derivatives.

#91 Marco on 03.26.20 at 4:16 pm

And do not buy stocks. Wait, you’ll get em cheaper, soon

#92 akashic record on 03.26.20 at 4:16 pm

Yes, but in reality deferring mortgage payments will end up increasing overall loan debt and costing people more. – Garth

It’s basically a handout for banks, who finance this from nothing.

The lenders lose cash flow on over 200,000 mortgages for six months. Sounds like a hit to me. – Garth

#93 Andrew on 03.26.20 at 4:19 pm

Well said. Hopefully a savings renaissance comes out of this.

#94 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 4:22 pm

#79 Tater on 03.26.20 at 4:04 pm

And bragging about being basically flat in this market is pretty sad. Had a 35% peak to trough move (so far) in SPY, with vol exploding. Should be up 20% or so. Or maybe that just me.

———————-

Total portfolio up 20% in 2020 as a whole?!

Wow. I’m pretty sure that makes you nearly the world’s best investor.

Damn fine job!

#95 Ronaldo on 03.26.20 at 4:25 pm

#70 Deplorable Dude on 03.26.20 at 3:50 pm
The official Canadian government Covid-19 Epidemiological Stats are severely lacking…..

The 2 most important factors aren’t being shown.

1) Running mortality rates. So you can see whether we are experiencing a rise or fall in deaths, and at what rate.

2) Demographics of mortality. What age groups of most affected? Underlying conditions?

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html?topic=tilelink
—————————————————————–
You got that right. My thoughts exactly. How about the total number of persons tested. How about posting comparison to deaths from the seasonal flu. That would certainly be shocking. I guess the less we know the better.

#96 Debbie Allen on 03.26.20 at 4:28 pm

I’m okay with what you have to say but I really do not like the picture.

#97 not 1st on 03.26.20 at 4:30 pm

I will give everyone some worthy advice, any supports from the govt are bound to be sustenance level.

UBI isn’t going to be handed to the masses and those that decide to make a permanent go on it will just join the poverty underclass one step above welfare.

While the vast majority are phoning their banks for a mortgage jubilee and hording tp, other money is sinking into that generational low in the stock market and at the same time reorganizing their business affairs so they aren’t carrying the dependents and heir Trudeau cant reach into their trousers. The 1% don’t sit around like sitting ducks with targets on their heads.

#98 Dee on 03.26.20 at 4:30 pm

Garth I personally feel our current Government was irresponsible in not getting enough test kits and ventilators, when they had plenty of warning,. Thus we are now in this economic crisis. We could have been like South Korea and tested and isolated but we didn’t and so now the Liberals answer is to shut everything down. It’s a “virus” so even the WHO has said just shutting things down will not stop the virus. So now our society is left to fight amongst ourselves for money and food and shelter. My question to you is, once people realize the virus isn’t going anywhere, when and how can we go back to work??

#99 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 4:30 pm

#12 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 2:05 pm

Hence, when we re-signed the entire remaining office staff to hourly contracts last week, we included very specific clauses with accepted legal precedent. Thanks!

————-

#79 Tater on 03.26.20 at 4:04 pm

Constructively dismissed your workforce without any consideration? Bold strategy Cotton.

————-

Sorry, I missed the part in my post where I wrote we violated the Employment Standards Act..

Or did you just assume that?

Oh

#100 Howard on 03.26.20 at 4:31 pm

#30 Cto on 03.26.20 at 2:26 pm
Suffer? People will suffer, really?
All this money coming I to the system, it appears to me that they will carry on as usual. Stay home and enjoy the free money people …working is just an old school idea that is dying off anyway.
Modern monetary Theory!
Looks like all governments and political parties have joined this group.
There will be no turning back print print print those debts away!!!
Honestly Garth, give up…

————————————————-

This is exactly my reaction to Garth’s entry today.

Like, what “suffering”? The only suffering I see is the revulsion of savers having to bail out the financially illiterate and useless yet again.

Apparently I am to be punished for having chosen a relatively recession-proof industry, in which I can work from home, and having put away a rainy day fund to last me 2-3 years without work if need be (in addition to my broader portfolio).

While all the spenders get to do a happy dance as MY money gets showered down onto them by the government.

#101 sm_yyc on 03.26.20 at 4:32 pm

Garth – this is your moment of “I told you so”. The ones who listened, thank you for your continued guidance. Stay safe and take care.

#102 dm2 on 03.26.20 at 4:32 pm

I do not hate you, Garth. I am very afraid. Thank you. dm2

#103 BK on 03.26.20 at 4:33 pm

Sorry, let me get this straight. People can double dip? $2000 per month on top of ei????

#104 For the love of God on 03.26.20 at 4:35 pm

Please limit Sail Away to a comment or two or truly send them sailing. They may have profited, but they are not my messiah. Garth will save us. And only Garth.

#105 Ronaldo on 03.26.20 at 4:36 pm

Son tells me gas 62.9 in Calgary today. Here 112.9. What gives? Lower than the 2008 crisis.

#106 SunShowers on 03.26.20 at 4:36 pm

I don’t think today’s post is all that bad, Garth. You had me worried.

However, I would argue that even if Canadians had exemplary savings and did not NEED government handouts to make it through this, it would be incumbent upon the government to provide those handouts anyway.

If the government is going to tell me that I CANNOT go out there and earn income (albeit for my own good), then it should be up to the government to compensate me for what I would have earned had I been able to go to work as normal.

If they didn’t, some might even go so far as to liken it to theft.

#107 jerry on 03.26.20 at 4:37 pm

“A balanced portfolio has not been ‘washed out,’ and this week has been restoring. If your dad can’t sleep, fire the financial advisor. He has one, right? – Garth

Are the markets anticipating recovery a few months out from now or is this just a result of the temporary stimulus bandaid?

Pandemics are not structural. They pass. Of course markets will restore in anticipation of economic rebuilding. What other possible outcome is there? – Garth

#108 Mattl on 03.26.20 at 4:37 pm

#55 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 3:24 pm
#49 Mattl on 03.26.20 at 3:12 pm

There are systematic issues with the way corp America is structured that need to be addressed.

We, the taxpayers, shouldn’t have to bail these guys out…

———

You won’t have to, because they’re, like, in America.

That’s another country.

———————————————————

You just argued with me last week that we should bail out AC. Derr derr, 30K employees, derr derr.

You capitalists sure turn to full on socialist when it suits you.

So what are you for? Market based solution or gov bailouts?

#109 Howard on 03.26.20 at 4:38 pm

#68 T-Rev on 03.26.20 at 3:46 pm
Nailed it, Gartho. Have some acquaintances who got back from Mexico and are in 14 day isolation as a result. Mid 30s. She’s operates a small business that is required to shut through this. He works public sector, but won’t be paid during the two weeks of isolation.

I had to take them groceries so they could eat, not because they’re quarantined, but because they’re broke. Literally sobbing on the phone that this has bankrupt them. Not enough cash to last 2 weeks, but they went to Mexico. Unbelievable, and unbelievably common as we’re learning.

————————————————-

Did you ask them WHY they went to Mexico if they’re broke? Did you broach the subject? These people have to be shamed otherwise they won’t change their ways.

As I mentioned yesterday, occasional fasting is actually good for the body and mind. Perhaps they should try it.

#110 CJohnC on 03.26.20 at 4:40 pm

Great post Garth

#4 blogdog123
I Agree 100%.

#111 not 1st on 03.26.20 at 4:42 pm

Planes from china still lend every day in Canada. Trudeau gave our excess PPE to china with nothing in return while he hides out in his cottage popping out once a day like a badly timed cuckoo clock. Couldn’t even bother to show to the HoC to try and shove his power grab through personally. And now Trump is putting troops along the border.

This is our leadership? Hope the pretty hair was worth it.

#112 Last Gasp on 03.26.20 at 4:45 pm

Pursuent to my last post I think the Garth just took the “roll over ride”in the ongoing collective grand Canadian car crash. Perhaps he and other readers are now waking up to our grim new reality after a profound and unrepaired economic trauma. The actions by our government is predictably one of the cure being worse than the disease. It is like the 17th century barbers that part timed as surgeons … bloodletting you until you healed or expired. Comsider this… if you had a bad , strange ue like illness last November to December you already had Covid 19 version 1.0. The spring version now underway is a mutated Covid 19 version 2.0. This will cycle peak around the middle of May 202 … and then receed over summer. Pandemics globally cycle in 3 waves and the third most intense phase will reassert Ocotber to November of 2020 in the northern hemisphere and end atound March to April 2021 in the Souhern hemisphere. Then deplete with global herd immunity and not resurrect again in our lifetimes like the Spanish flu. We will survive but like a ship wrecked on the beach, we will need to rebuild from the wreckage. All is not lost as our characters will be immensely polished and our core values burnished. Life basics will be regarded as gold … and bling regarded as trash. Faith, family, and friends will be your real bank account.

#113 Penny Henny on 03.26.20 at 4:46 pm

#79 Tater on 03.26.20 at 4:04 pm
#12 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 2:05 pm

I’ve learned something from you, though, Penny. Back when you boasted about taking your employer to the cleaners, I took heed. Hence, when we re-signed the entire remaining office staff to hourly contracts last week, we included very specific clauses with accepted legal precedent. Thanks!
———————————————————–
Constructively dismissed your workforce without any consideration? Bold strategy Cotton.

//////////////
Constructive dismissal yep.

All it’s gonna take is one of them going to a labour lawyer.
Drastic changes to terms of employment made even worse by doing it at times of duress.
Hope you didn’t go cheap and had a proper labour lawyer draw up the new terms of employment.

#114 Mike in Alberta on 03.26.20 at 4:47 pm

Well said Garth. I can’t tell you how pissed off I was the other night hearing the Liberals were trying to do a power grab in the middle of a crisis.

If they had come back as a majority they would have taxed us to death with zero oversight.

#115 Saw this coming! on 03.26.20 at 4:47 pm

Yep … watched my neighbours take expensive vacations, drive really nice late model vehicles, join the most expensive golf clubs … etc. Me and the wife never really took away vacations, drove our vehicle(s) into the ground, paid all in cash, kept at paying the mortgage, contributing to a nest egg. Now retired with pension and no other debts (ie … no mortgage, no loan) and wondering how the current state of affairs is going to burn me. Not saying it is unfair – but I could see it coming, some event where somehow the savers would be burned … higher taxes the most obvious. I will keep paying my monthly living bills and donate to the church, same as I did last month, last year, and for the last few decades. I doubt if any of these Government programs will help me, but I will help pay for them I am sure!

#116 Bob in Hamilton on 03.26.20 at 4:50 pm

Great photo…proves once again that dogs are better then most people in this world.

#117 Abc123 on 03.26.20 at 4:51 pm

I would think that China is a good place to place blame realistically. Certainly not the first time they have unleashed sickness on the world. To make make matters worse , they hid the problem before it was no longer possible.

Of course , assigning blame does nothing to solve the problem.

#118 Linda on 03.26.20 at 4:52 pm

Today’s dog = my hero:)

No shooting the messenger here, Garth. I find it ironic that many will now rely upon government & those much despised civil servants to bail them out. No matter how quick the response, it won’t be quick enough – or ‘enough’, period.

I find myself torn. I appreciate that the government must step in to stop the smoking crater our economy will become without intervention. Part of me however thinks it might be better to do the quick rip of the bandaid solution – let those who never saved for tomorrow learn, as previous generations did, that they need to be prudent with their financial choices instead of expecting ‘the rich’ & all those who did save for tomorrow to bail them out when the going got tough. I don’t say this to be smug or morally high ground here – I’ve made plenty of poor choices myself over the decades – but because this current scenario has all too likely a chance of coming around again. This is a relatively mild pandemic. Actual deaths worldwide are still a minor blip compared to say, annual worldwide death from vehicle incident (1.25 million per annum), not to mention the much greater number of injured whose recovery/care take one heck of a chunk of medical time/effort to achieve. My point being, what will we do as a society, locally or globally, when ‘the big one’ arrives? It is more than obvious that our current medical systems are being overwhelmed & the economic fallout is epic to boot. Right now supply chains are still operating. Food is still being supplied, despite panic purchases. Various industries are retooling to produce more desperately needed medical supplies. What will happen when – if – another Spanish flu or bubonic plague (Black Death) virus occurs? Will our society as a whole learn from this experience & change their debt accumulating, live from payday to payday ways? Or will they expect ‘the government’ to bail them out, no matter what? I’m afraid I already know the answer to that question.

#119 Doghouse Dweller on 03.26.20 at 4:56 pm

Unintended consequences from the twilight zone. Strange days lately !
The neighborhood has all kinds of people milling around that I`ve never seen before , young and old with dogs and kids ( Big city refugees ??????) Robo call from the lord mayor . ” Stay home and out of parks no picnics and ball games.” (no one is listening) Grocery store essential service hero clerks jumping ship in droves for Trudeau $$. Knife wielding liquor store holdups. A hooded masked stranger just went by. All the village needs is a foggy mist to complete the picture.

#120 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.26.20 at 4:57 pm

@#49 MattL

Another great post. Big Corp™ needs a wake up call too.

#121 Lambchop on 03.26.20 at 4:59 pm

#1 Apocalypse2020 on 03.26.20 at 1:41 pm
More to come.

You can still spend valuable time getting prepared.

Leaving large urban centres may be very wise for your long term well-being.

_________________

I’m morbidly fascinated by what exactly you think is going to happen. Could you succinctly elaborate, in a real-world sort of way, without hyperbole or conspiracy theories?

If I’m out of line for asking this, please delete.

#122 R on 03.26.20 at 4:59 pm

tRump, the Dear Leader , Mr Mayhem himself, wants to place US military troops on the Canadian border to prevent Canadians from escaping Canada.
https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN21D2PK

#123 Andrewski on 03.26.20 at 5:01 pm

Globe & Mail article, (no link, as not everyone has an account with G&M):

One of the many things we’ve learned from the pandemic crisis is the importance of saving for a rainy day. Canada has failed for many years to do so. Now it’s pouring outside, and both governments and individuals will struggle to cope.

For a decade and more, Canadians with means have been spending as if there were no tomorrow. They spent on expensive houses, taking out giant mortgages. They spent on nice cars, using long-term loans and leases to make the payments feel painless. They spent on vacations and renovations and big-screen TVs.

Banks egged them on, offering giant lines of credit to anyone lucky enough to own a house. With interest rates at historic lows, consumers binged on borrowed money. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income climbed and climbed. What happens now to all the people who have been thrown out of work and have bills to pay and interest payments to make?

Governments have been even more profligate. The biggest provincial government, Ontario’s, managed the remarkable feat of doubling its debt in the course of a decade. Alberta spent its oil money on highways and hospitals and hockey rinks instead of putting it aside, Norway style, for the future. With oil prices crashing, it finds itself in deep trouble. So does Newfoundland and Labrador, its plight worsened by the Muskrat Falls white elephant.

The federal government went on a spree of its own. Elected on a solemn pledge to balance the budget by the time the next election rolled around, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals instead kept ramping up spending, taking advantage of a booming economy to “invest in the future” rather than tackle the deficit or pay down the debt, much less put aside money for an emergency. They even gave Canadians a nice tax cut last year, slicing $6-billion from Ottawa’s annual revenue.

Their apologists patted them on the back for their wisdom and foresight. If Mr. Trudeau had broken a little promise, what of it? Everyone did that. And the size of the debt didn’t really matter anyway; it was its size compared to GDP, you see.

As long as that didn’t soar, well, not to worry. No rain was in sight. The sun was shining. While interest rates were low, why not take advantage of the good weather and just borrow and spend? Which is exactly what the government did, putting off the unpopular task of balancing the books to the indefinite future. So the debt mountain kept growing. The combined federal and provincial net debt has reached $1.5-trillion, says a recent Fraser Institute report.

Now we face an awful reckoning. The tomorrow that would never come is here. For years, governments were accused of putting the future of our children and grandchildren in jeopardy by piling up debt. It turns out the danger was much closer. It is we, the current generation, who are at risk.

It will cost many billions to get us through this unprecedented crisis. The $82-billion federal package approved on Wednesday is only the beginning. With no rainy-day fund to speak of, Ottawa and the provinces will need to borrow the money, recording deficits that are bound to dwarf those of the last recession.

They have no other option. Spending big is the right thing – no, the only thing – to do. To avoid economic catastrophe and ease the pain of this moment, governments need to help Canadians – especially low-income Canadians – who are under the gun; buoy up businesses threatened with bankruptcy; cover a flood of employment insurance claims from suddenly jobless people; and pump money into the economy.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW ADVERTISEMENT

Now is not the time to complain about big government. Moments like this are what governments are for, which is why we want them to have deep pockets and small debts. The Finance Minister, Bill Morneau, insists we have the “fiscal firepower” for the job. Canada is still a wealthy country, after all.

But once this necessary binge is over, let’s promise ourselves not to go on another one when things get back to normal. Let’s instead dedicate ourselves to living within our means, wiping out our deficits, reducing our debts and saving for the next rainy day.

#124 dan on 03.26.20 at 5:02 pm

#49 Mattl on 03.26.20 at 3:12 pm

I agree with Matt 100%. All corporations should be required to set aside reserve funds for these times. Having governments bail out companies who brag about making a billion in profit a quarter is sickening!

#125 Last Chance on 03.26.20 at 5:02 pm

Northwest health Reit is sure looking attractive. 12 percent yeild. Why is no one on this sucker? They announced share buybacks. What am I not seeing?

#126 CEW9 on 03.26.20 at 5:04 pm

#16 twentyeight on 03.26.20 at 2:08 pm

Like a lot of people his age, he has a pension, but now he’s crushed that he won’t have the equity for a retirement property next year.

__________________________________________

Want to hear the good news? Next year retirement properties will be a dime a dozen. First thing to go when the economy gets tight.

#127 Drinking on 03.26.20 at 5:04 pm

Excellent blog today Garth, I gave up reading the responses to you.

Yep, the world needed a reset; you warned, many warned to no avail!

I cut my own hair today, what a disaster but anyways, big thanks to all of those keeping us alive; front line workers; especially the grocery clerks, delivery drivers and of course our hospital workers!

#128 Dolce Vita on 03.26.20 at 5:11 pm

“They’ll hate you,” she said.

-No they won’t.

MAGNIFICENT.

Had to be said. Glad you did.

#129 Drew on 03.26.20 at 5:15 pm

Imagine if people and companies could handle income disruption for a couple months.

The rates were kept too low for too long and people got complacent

We won’t learn, and we’re blaming landlords, the wealthy, and China already

#130 CNRI on 03.26.20 at 5:15 pm

Needed to be said.

#131 Blog Bunny on 03.26.20 at 5:17 pm

When I was a kid, my parents often told me how the natives were jealous of us immigrants, because we worked hard, saved a ton, and eventually were able to achieve so much more financially. It was tough to be the odd kid always dressed in Salvation Army clothes with zero pocket money. However, I grew up with a completely different mindset now and now have no financial worries. Kudos to all who listened to Garth and are better off now.

#132 Penny Henny on 03.26.20 at 5:22 pm

#98 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 4:30 pm
#12 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 2:05 pm

Hence, when we re-signed the entire remaining office staff to hourly contracts last week, we included very specific clauses with accepted legal precedent. Thanks!

————-

#79 Tater on 03.26.20 at 4:04 pm

Constructively dismissed your workforce without any consideration? Bold strategy Cotton.

————-

Sorry, I missed the part in my post where I wrote we violated the Employment Standards Act..

////////////

Ha, ha.
You did cheap out by not getting a lawyer.
Someday you will learn that Common Law overrules the Employment Standards Act.
Maybe if you weren’t posting on here every 5 minutes and did some research you would know that.

#133 binky barnes on 03.26.20 at 5:24 pm

CERB and EI?! Hope not, even though my wife will be eligible. I know some people have/will be really hurt by this, but not sure I support a “doubling up” of government assistance.

Two more things:

1. I don’t mind Sail Away. A clever “villain”.

2. Mr. Garth Turner for the Order of Canada. Not joking, Garth.

#134 Smartalox on 03.26.20 at 5:24 pm

I still think that the state owned utilities and crown corporations (ICBC, SAAQ, etc.) should contribute to the crisis by suspending charges to customers during this time. These corporations (especially the electrical utilities) amortize their input costs over years (if not decades) and don’t face expenses for any raw materials used to produce what they sell.

They’re also used to running massive debts, so a few million more paying maintenance costs out of pocket is not going to break them.

But $100, $200, $500 worth of avoided expenses per month, per household, or for a shuttered small business, is just as good as a cash handout. These are captive businesses, so it’s unlikely that non-paying clients will suddenly cancel service once charges start again.

It WILL make a difference to those struggling to get by. It would allow people to pay some rent, even if not all – money that the landlord could then spend back into the economy, and get people working again.

Hoarding cash, or not spending money, (i.e.: not paying rent or paying your mortgage) will make it harder for businesses to re-open and slow the recall of laid off workers. And yes, the longer those workers are off, the less likely they will go back to work.

Maybe the government should suspend income tax deductions for workers immediately and for 6 months. Again, it’s not like current revenues make much of a dent in the debt anyway, and a great many state services are shuttered right now, anyway.

Tax cuts are supposedly the ‘gold standard’ for stimulating an economy, the assumption being that citizens will spend their tax cut dollars in the economy. And people who pay more in taxes, tend to be the ones who spend more, too.

Consider these as alternatives to piling on MORE DEBT by handing out random cash – or at least reduce the amount of cash required to be handed out.

Income taxes were once considered a ‘temporary measure’ imposed after WW1, but they became permanent. Maybe it is too much to hope that any suspension of taxation under dire circumstances could become permanent, too.

#135 Timmy on 03.26.20 at 5:26 pm

Why aren’t we asking why these poor bastards are making 30K/ year in the first place? How are they supposed to save any money? Why as a society do we let this happen. Apparently working for Amazon sucks, but it pays $15/hour and millions of Americans are doing these jobs, so it show how shitty their options are.

#136 Felix on 03.26.20 at 5:27 pm

Anyway, the phrase dead cat bounce has been thrown around lately. The jump in the markets over the past three days seems to fit the dead cat pattern.

Dead cats rarely last consecutive sessions nor add 20%. Markets are anticipating what we all know will be the reality in six months. – Garth

Commentary like this and a photo celebrating a canine attempting to consume an innocent kitten are not acceptable.

Only we can say “dead cat bounce”.

May your markets correct nicely on an upward trajectory, as well as your anti-feline RACISM.

#137 SimplyPut7 on 03.26.20 at 5:27 pm

This trying to bailout everyone isn’t going to work.

There is too much debt around the world to save everyone.

The focus during this lockdown should be on coming up with a better healthcare policy to slow the rate of infection and to prevent doctors from having to tell patients over 60 that they cannot go on respiratory machines.

We need something in between not knowing your every movement like Asia to stop the spread, and not giving you unlimited freedom like the US, as they are projected to have between 40,000 to 160,000 dead in the next 4 months.

#138 Tony on 03.26.20 at 5:28 pm

I surmized the numbers out of America would be fake. I guess most others did too.

#139 Bobvid-19 on 03.26.20 at 5:28 pm

My niece in England – her daughter is nurse just promoted to be in charge of intensive care at a hospital in London. All her bosses have covid now. She had 9 patients on Monday and she received 40 today. Two deaths 25 years and 36 years both female. Not only old people. Her daughter knows she will catch it. She is telling all to take this seriously now. She is telling everyone to wear gloves, clean your car with rubbing alcohol after you go out doing deliveries or picking stuff up. She said London is like a war zone now in all the hospitals and the news is not sharing it. Stay home stay safe

#140 CC on 03.26.20 at 5:32 pm

#101

For sh*ts and giggles, I counted the number of comments this individual made today. Ten so far, which might not be so bad if the guy was normal but he obviously has some type of personality disorder whereby he gets off on berating and disgusting others. Why Garth allows this is…well… interesting.

#141 MF on 03.26.20 at 5:32 pm

“Bank of Canada to ramp up asset buying”

“The bank will be purchasing assets to keep borrowing costs down”.

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-ramps-up-asset-buying-to-backstop-virus-slammed-economy#comments-area

Anyone think this is a good idea?

MF

#142 Tony on 03.26.20 at 5:34 pm

Re: #124 CEW9 on 03.26.20 at 5:04 pm

Land always falls first not vacation properties.

#143 CC on 03.26.20 at 5:35 pm

typo…should have referenced comment #103.

#144 Renter's Revenge! on 03.26.20 at 5:35 pm

#7 not 1st on 03.26.20 at 1:59 pm
Just for reference, I suspended my mortgage payments to invest in the stock market.

========================

Wouldn’t it make more sense to keep paying your mortgage and borrow against your house to invest?

At least then you can deduct the interest on your taxes.

#145 Parsonage on 03.26.20 at 5:35 pm

Amen!
Thank you, Garth, for telling it like it is!

#146 ts on 03.26.20 at 5:36 pm

” If leaders do not support people, the economy will crater for years. It will take a generation to rebuild. This will be a revisit of the 1930s. It cannot happen. Nor will it.”

Completely agree. We cannot allow families (especially those with children) suffer due to this unforeseen terrible crisis. Yes, many people were financially irresponsible, but now is not the time for criticism or hate. We must help these people through this temporary setback or many may end up in homeless shelters.

#147 Terry on 03.26.20 at 5:37 pm

“If leaders do not support people, the economy will crater for years. It will take a generation to rebuild. This will be a revisit of the 1930s. It cannot happen. Nor will it.”

An Economic Depression? Yes, it will happen. The demand curve erasure has still not hit bottom. The pool of people able to buy and consume is disappearing by millions every week. Governments can helicopter money to the masses for some of their immediate needs for a while…….but the main problem going forward is that they have SCARED THE CRAP out of everyone! This alone CHANGES EVERYTHING! Life for everyone will NEVER BE WHAT IT WAS for quite probably the rest of our lifetimes. Adaptation and the new age of thrift and self sufficiency starts again. Good luck everyone!

#148 Craig on 03.26.20 at 5:39 pm

Garth. Is this stockmarket being propped up by mega stimulus and a huge trap for investors or what?!?!?! Man

#149 CC on 03.26.20 at 5:41 pm

#103 Forgot to mention that the ten comments made today were only to this blog entry. Pretty sure that was not the total today, as he was commenting like crazy to the prior post as well.

Please make him stop Garth. May I suggest, putting a limit per person per day…self imposed, but if you see it becoming excessive, delete. Unless, like him, you enjoy his deranged words and the abusive comments directed towards other readers.

#150 Doghouse Dweller on 03.26.20 at 5:41 pm

#93 Andrewski
” let’s promise ourselves ” won`t do it. That`s the G&M snowflake outcome. Unfortunately what will change behavior is a whole lot of misery and anguish.

#151 Frenimie on 03.26.20 at 5:44 pm

This is all the fault of the punk Greta kid. She organized all this to get pollution reduced. Sweden should be bailing us out.

#152 Phylis on 03.26.20 at 5:44 pm

#50 Stan Brooks on 03.26.20 at 3:18 pm What are your thoughts on tesla?

#153 not 1st on 03.26.20 at 5:45 pm

#121 R on 03.26.20 at 4:59 pm
—–

Did you not read Garths post? US has more than 10 times our GDP and just 3.5M people file for UE. Canada had 1.5M people file, our numbers should have been around 400k total based on GDP and population.

I would say Trump is ahead of the curve. Roxham was open for 4 yrs straight, some might think its a 2 way street. Not with Trump on the watch. He has already said anyone being turned back will be deported off US soil. I imagine the same thing will happen if a bunch of Canadians try the same thing.

#154 Dolce Vita on 03.26.20 at 5:46 pm

In the COVID-19 Olympics by tomorrow this time, America’s quest for Gold will become reality.

I say this because COVID-19 no matter what Trump says for Easter is without mercy and without vigilance, it will more than decimate:

Spanish Flu mortality rate: 1.5 to 3% estimated.
Deaths: 50 Million, minimum.

COVID-19 mortality rate: 4.5% as of today
Deaths: 23,639 (so far)

Our great neighbor to the South is playing with fire (Easter business back to usual).

So Canada, for the Love of God stay inside. You need to be healthy to rebuild what COVID-19 has taken from you.

————————————-

As for Mother Nature:

She plods along relentless, RED IN TOOTH AND CLAW, ignoring the foibles of mankind including my own.

#155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.26.20 at 5:48 pm

@#126 Dolce
“Had to be said….”

+++
Yep.

In the immortal words of Jack……

“To the average cashless Canadian I say….”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMzd40i8TfA

#156 TheYoungGreek on 03.26.20 at 5:49 pm

What really pisses me off is that some of the people who 2 months ago were participating in the blockades trying to shut down our economy, will now be collecting $2k/month from the government. Think about where that money is coming from. Better yet, don’t apply for it and go live off the land.

#157 JSS on 03.26.20 at 5:50 pm

i just don’t have enough cash to take advantage of the great deals on the DJIA, NASDAQ, and TSX.

#158 Tony on 03.26.20 at 5:52 pm

This won’t affect my niece. She has one empty house in Toronto that’s sat empty since her mother died 6 years ago. The condo she owns also has sat empty for at least the past 10 years. She took my inheritance my two brother’s inheritance and my sister’s inheritance quit her job and had a son 6 years ago. The guy who she’s married to his father is worth close to 100 million dollars. My niece’s mother set her up with the guy at Bayview Golf and Country Club.

Time for your meds, Tony. – Garth

#159 Curt Lizzi on 03.26.20 at 5:52 pm

Well said.

#160 backwardsevolution on 03.26.20 at 5:54 pm

Garth – “The lenders lose cash flow on over 200,000 mortgages for six months. Sounds like a hit to me.”

If the banks take a hit, they will be richly rewarded down the line for doing it.

The Bank of Canada exists to protect and enrich the big banks.

But you already know this.

If I did, I would be wrong. – Garth

#161 Oracle of Ottawa on 03.26.20 at 5:54 pm

I thought we were heading to a low or no interest rate like Japan has been through for the last 10 years. But now I think inflation will come roaring back. Somebody has to pay for the debt. So I imagine taxes will be increased.

#162 akashic record on 03.26.20 at 5:54 pm

The lenders lose cash flow on over 200,000 mortgages for six months. Sounds like a hit to me. – Garth

Lenders (banks, I wrote) have unlimited liquidity provided for them by the government at near zero interest rate.

They will collect the extra mortgage cost at whatever rate the customers have.

It’s basically selling an extra 6 months bridge loan on top of the existing mortgage, at the same rate.

Banks graciously offer their customers to pay the rescue for the banks, saving lenders from the real hit they would have to take on foreclosures.

Banks would take a serious haircut on mass foreclosures, flooding the already dead market.

#163 Andrew on 03.26.20 at 5:54 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/bank-of-canada-gets-authority-to-buy-corporate-municipal-debt

Forgot to ask the other day if there is any significance to this. Don’t recall seeing you mention it, apologies if you did. Possible Japan model down the line?

#164 Trojan House on 03.26.20 at 5:55 pm

So I guess this is it. I guess this is the apocalypse. The end of Western civilization. Over a flu bug.

#165 Bgs on 03.26.20 at 5:59 pm

Although I agree with much of this, how about a little more empathy for the lower income people. Yes, many people have got themselves in a bad spot overspending on houses and cars and vacations, but there are plenty of people out there for whom setting aside several months of living expenses is impossible. Telling someone who makes 14 bucks an hour in a city where rent costs 2500 a month that they should have been prepared for this is just cruel.

Secondly, there’s a lot of talk out there about personal responsibility, but what about corps? Do they not have some responsibility to be financially prepared? How is it fair to say that a working family should have a plan, but a multi million dollar company can come to the government with its hand out at the first sign of trouble?

#166 the Jaguar on 03.26.20 at 6:01 pm

Hear, Hear!! Agree with Dolce Vita. Magnificent. Mrs. Turner…you must remember we come to this blog because your husband has the courage to speak the truth in times when so many are afraid to do so…….

Wondering how Felix is going to react to the pic today and the caption explaining the circumstances. Oh boy.

Why haven’t the Feds considered allowing those who did put money away to step in with family assistance?
Allow a withdrawal from RRSP’s, untaxed of say 25,000. Those OK Boomers could assist with a family loan to be repaid later when things get back on track (?). Seems to me it might save money for the Feds and also put a little untaxed funds in the hands of responsible people who did save for a rainy day and kept their debt in check. Let them keep a little bit for themselves as an acknowledgement of their good financial habits. They can plow in back into the markets when it gets gaslite.
Also, these stupid people who think they can stiff their landlords are really demonstrating their lack of brain power. Landlord has your damage deposit, usually equivalent to one months rent. You just made your April rent payment with it. Pretty sure the owner of the property could also ask for water and power to be cut off temporarily from service providers. If stupid renters trash the place they will learn quickly that a good credit rating is something of value going forward in life. It’s called ‘consequences’.
Or, as the Jaguar likes to say, ” Revenge is a dish best served cold”.

#167 Apocalypse2020 on 03.26.20 at 6:03 pm

#120 Lambchop

#1 Apocalypse2020 on 03.26.20 at 1:41 pm
More to come.

You can still spend valuable time getting prepared.

Leaving large urban centres may be very wise for your long term well-being.

_________________

I’m morbidly fascinated by what exactly you think is going to happen. Could you succinctly elaborate, in a real-world sort of way, without hyperbole or conspiracy theories?

If I’m out of line for asking this, please delete.
*******************************************

If our kind host Mr Turner will allow, I will indeed be telling you much more about what to expect and the scope of the calamity ahead; I will share much more insight in the days and weeks to come, assuming we have that time.

But I do suggest you should don your adult diapers henceforth when coming to this blog to read what I have to say. And bring a daily low-dose aspirin.

#168 Ustabe on 03.26.20 at 6:06 pm

Xi on the phone with France, Italy, Spain and Germany to offer masks and other medical equipment.

So far no call into Trumplandia. Wonder why?

Trump’s own re-election team states that his comments on this crisis are not helpful. Wow!

Cheesecake Factory informing their landlords, nation wide, that they will not be paying the leases going forward…what a bunch of whiners, eh?

Waffle House shutting operations down nation wide. But nothing to see there at all. All fake.

To all you investor/savers whinging about having to bail out those who will receive financial help in the near future…costs money to live in one of the best countries in the world. You can always chose to move…try New York City or Washington State maybe?

Some of you, a lot of you actually, are ignoring facts on the ground…not a good thing in either investing or living life.

#169 Stoph on 03.26.20 at 6:07 pm

I’d say there’s three options going forward:
-continue the shutdown to avoid an increasing number of infections.
-a limited opening up of the economy and try and balance the infection rate with economic activity.
-fully opening up the economy

Continuing the shutdown indefinitely is going to be way too costly, plus there’s no end in sight. Fully opening the economy is going to result in too many infections and will ‘undo’ the reduced infection rate from the shutdown. So number two it is: a limited opening of the economy such that infections don’t overwhelm hospitals but still allow for a ‘functioning’ economy.

#170 Attrition on 03.26.20 at 6:08 pm

#145 Terry on 03.26.20 at 5:37 pm

Adaptation and the new age of thrift and self sufficiency starts again. Good luck everyone!

^ This.

I’m not sure folks remember what thrift means, nor are they able to develop the skills and discipline to be even modestly self sufficient easily or quickly. Worrisome.

Growing up, I remember the immigrant parents of so many of my friends. Italian, Chinese, Dutch, Japanese.

Without exception, they put veg gardens on every patch of dirt they had. They had good jobs and plenty of money, but a generation removed from starvation and war rationing isn’t quickly forgotten. Can’t eat stock certificates.

We’re in the land of plenty, Canada, so I’m not suggesting food is an issue other perhaps that us having too much of it.

But that’s self sufficiency. Cash, investments, houses and gardens, and the knowledge and fitness to manage it all.

By comparison, my parents…what can I say…drink, party, travel, marry, cavort, divorce like it’s 1999. Still at it to this day, the with much less range.

I guess I learned by proxy.

Now, time to get them spuds in…

#171 mark on 03.26.20 at 6:09 pm

There won’t be a change. The government in Australia has opened up retirement accounts if your income has dropped 20%. 10k this financial year. 10k next financial year. Normally they’re preserved until 60. People who haven’t lost employment are already scheming ways to pull the money out.

#172 the Jaguar on 03.26.20 at 6:09 pm

@#134 Felix on 03.26.20 at 5:27 pm

Mama Mia, Felix. You have to acknowledge the hero dog who saved his buddy the kitten! Probably got a Purina Hero Medal for it…

#173 Linda on 03.26.20 at 6:15 pm

#145 ‘Terry’ – problem with giving folks money right now is actually spending it. Plenty of folks in quarantine. Limits on how many people can be together at once AND shop shelves stripped by panic buying to boot. Businesses closed indefinitely, some of which will never reopen. There is of course online shopping, but that money is meant to cover necessities, not fund a shopping spree. Crazy times, for sure.

#174 Sail Away on 03.26.20 at 6:16 pm

#130 Penny Henny on 03.26.20 at 5:22 pm

Ha, ha.
You did cheap out by not getting a lawyer.
Someday you will learn that Common Law overrules the Employment Standards Act.
Maybe if you weren’t posting on here every 5 minutes and did some research you would know that.

—————–

Yep, got me. Incisive.

#175 not 1st on 03.26.20 at 6:18 pm

#142 Renter’s Revenge! on 03.26.20 at 5:35 pm
—–

Might do that too. Hard to get a hold a bank rep right now while the lines are jammed. But every available dollar should be jammed into the stock market right now.

By my estimation there could be 10s of trillions of stimulus pumped into this system. The fed is straight up buying equities, bonds and mortgage backed securities. 10yr treasure in negative ranges which means negative rates could be around the corner. All points to explosion in asset prices then likely to be tamed with interest rate policy in a years time.

#176 Kilt on 03.26.20 at 6:20 pm

So my Wife can come home to take care of the kids and make about the same amount of money she makes working in hazardous occupation?

Kilt.

#177 John in Mtl on 03.26.20 at 6:22 pm

I’m starting to think that “Trumpocalipse2020” may be right. After all, he’s been harping on here for the last few months to “prepare” and… he was right; something bad came our way.

Anyways, I did prepare a long time ago, just in case something like this would happen; and have had no debt for many many years.

#178 BlogDog123 on 03.26.20 at 6:24 pm

for my #4 post,

I was pointing out personal responsibility and what seems fair (eg. should my children fully inherit provincial, municipal and national debt to subsidize wages for the ‘now working’ generation)? Or should the current employees/society affected share more of that burden?

==
— Foodbanks Need Your Help —

On another note, please consider donating CASH (via their legitimate, secure website) rather than the same old cans of beans. Less icky fingers touching these cans. Foodbanks can do a lot more with money wired to them than than can sorting through cans. They have trouble finding volunteers with the COVID-19 fears.

The marginally employed people will be most affected, so the foodbanks and your cash will go a long way to help out !

#179 Muttley O'Toole on 03.26.20 at 6:25 pm

But Jesus said to them, “A prophet is not without honor except in his own country, among his own relatives, and in his own house.”

#180 Doug t on 03.26.20 at 6:29 pm

I recently read a book called “Sapiens” by Yuval Harari- interesting timeline of Homo sapiens development especially over the last 30k years to the present – the futures not looking great – too many people – lost our connection to the earth and nature – spiritualism is dying – greed, isolation, fear of death and nothing after death has led to to the natural instinct to consume more and more STUFF ie. toys, food, Internet etc without any restraints. Of course the machine has been there to help us get addicted to all of these useless things and allowed the world to drown in debt – pooched we are

#181 snorkle on 03.26.20 at 6:30 pm

Last chance to sell stocks before the…

DEEP DIVE

#182 earlybird on 03.26.20 at 6:31 pm

#49 Mattle
THIS!!
The too big to fail, and too rich to jail. Good Lord, how many times do you need a bailout! Yes, the deep vein of failure through society is the profit before people.

Yes we are being slapped with the consequence of their dodgy financial decisions…endless cheap labor, bail out after bailout, share buybacks, cronyism and they need our help again because they didn’t save for a rainy week!

The poor banks being asked to slash CC rate down from 29.99%…how dare we! Don’t worry our children will bail you out!

Small business and people will need the bailout this time, coin the term “trickle up” as it will end up at the top anyways.
No consumers…no economy…

When this all shakes out the government, banks and big corps will own everything.
RIP small business
and yes I’m fun at parties….

#183 Islandgirl on 03.26.20 at 6:31 pm

Thanks for the doggie picture today, and the story at the end made me smile even more.
No hatred from this household, it’s a crappy situation, just have to wait it out. We don’t have a ton of savings either, but this isn’t sending us down a rabbit hole of debt either.

#184 Robert on 03.26.20 at 6:33 pm

No hate, just a thanks for telling it the way that you see it.

#185 Nonplused on 03.26.20 at 6:36 pm

Wow, 151 comments so far and it’s only 6pm eastern. Might set a record today.

Any system that is based largely on credit is susceptible to shocks like this. For example WWII was (and will likely remain) a much larger shock to the economy and killed more people than this pandemic likely will, especially as a percent of population for those countries involved. But since at that time both government and household debt was at much lower levels things carried on even though there was a drastic reduction in consumer spending and they stopped making washing machines in favor of bombs and sent much of the work force off to Europe and Japan to do what was something essentially unproductive for several years. But if the economy can recover from that, it can recover from this, but what happens to the debt cycle remains to be seen.

Nicholas Taleb warned about this problem years ago in his book “The Black Swan”. I mean who would have thought even 4 months ago that you would see 47,000 stores shuttered in the US over a virus? And pretty much all of them have joined the “Keep Your Rent” movement so the landlords will be pooched. But at least you can argue that the stores cannot pay the rent through no fault of their own. I suppose in retrospect we should have seen it coming based on what happened in Wuhan but “American exceptionalism” lead to the conclusion “it can’t happen here” and “this isn’t China”.

(Talib has a new post out just yesterday titled “Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You”. You probably don’t have to read it to get his point, the title will do.)

The politics has been astounding as well. Congress has basically excluded Trump’s (and family) businesses from receiving any assistance despite the fact that his competitors will. Perhaps he should have taken a salary after all because he might be going bankrupt again.

Interesting times.

#186 dead cat bounce on 03.26.20 at 6:36 pm

Good Post, Yes this will forever change the world.
Even today I said to my wife we saved and saved and watched it drop $100,000 in three weeks.
WOW I could have spent the money on things I always wanted.
And when it recovers…. I think to Garths statement about pent up demand, I think its not pent up demand, I think people are like me better spend it now so not to loose it again!!!!!.

So an up date I am down $28,000 after three days of gains.
I did not sell and my TFSA and my wife’s is only down 10%.
my personal trading account I did everything wrong, thought I could out smart the big boys. I borrowed and bought all the way down.
I was so scared guess what I did as soon as it went up?
Yep as soon as I broke even I started unwinding my positions and you know what I missed the movement up as it keep going.

I think the market will fall again because the worst is not over and as Americans come to realize their attitude of civil disobedience will start to haunt them.
they have now surpassed China.
Anyway give them the weekend to think about it.
Thanks Garth for all your posts this past week they were a breath of fresh air.
And your teachings over the years help many people!

How this will end I dont know, 132B is allot of money.

Kind Regards

#187 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.26.20 at 6:37 pm

#147 CC on 03.26.20 at 5:41 pm sez:

“#103 Forgot to mention that the ten comments made today were only to this blog entry. Pretty sure that was not the total today, as he was commenting like crazy to the prior post as well.

Please make him stop Garth. May I suggest, putting a limit per person per day…self imposed, but if you see it becoming excessive, delete. Unless, like him, you enjoy his deranged words and the abusive comments directed towards other readers.”
————————————————————–
How many posts are you gonna spam the blog with complaining about what other people post?

If you don’t like the blog, move on.

#188 People Panic on 03.26.20 at 6:38 pm

No airplanes so far today but it is quite windy so they may be approaching from another direction.

#189 Deplorable Dude on 03.26.20 at 6:38 pm

Notes from today’s White House Covid19 update from Dr Deborah Birx, the Covid19 US response coordinator.

-Says early models (from Imperial College UK) were emphatically wrong.

-No health care system in US right now is overwhelmed. Pros are handling it.

-No exponential/rapid growth.

-55% of cases in NYC metro area.

#190 penguin on 03.26.20 at 6:40 pm

My 16 year old son works at a coffee shop part time that closed down due to the owner having underlying health conditions. Does he qualify for EI? Thanks.

#191 Niagara Region on 03.26.20 at 6:42 pm

Interesting article: “After Years of Hoarding Housing Supply, Toronto Airbnb Hosts are Panicking”

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/5dma7q/after-years-of-hoarding-housing-supply-toronto-airbnb-hosts-are-panicking

#192 CC on 03.26.20 at 6:43 pm

“Helpful reminders from your forum host, Garth Turner:
Abusive, obscene or disrespectful commenters will not be published and are subject to banning from this forum”

lol…yeah right. Garth, can you at least update your “helpful reminders”?

#193 Keep Your Rent on 03.26.20 at 6:46 pm

Tenants keep your rent.

Landlords keep your distance.

“Tons of posters that read “keep your rent April 1″ have also been appearing on mailboxes, telephone polls and walls across the city in an attempt to get residents to participate in the movement. ”

https://www.narcity.com/news/ca/on/toronto/toronto-keep-your-rent-signs-show-up-all-over-the-city-as-tenants-refuse-to-pay

#194 CJohnC on 03.26.20 at 6:47 pm

#102 BK on 03.26.20 at 4:33 pm

Your not listening to the gov announcements. They said that all existing EI Applications would be converted to the new benefit program that starts in April. No need to reapply. The max 55% of income EI program is dead for now and will be replaced by the flat rate $2000/mo program.

Not both.
************
Also, it is a laugh that Moreau says not to worry we have the financial resources to do the job. Having yet another credit card is not having financial resources.

And they killed the lumber industry…..can’t even make coffins

#195 Sign Me Up! on 03.26.20 at 6:47 pm

I personally am looking forward to getting $2000 a month of my money back from the government. Although I am saddened this is what it took to do it. And I know they will just raise taxes later and take it all back again. Sigh.

#196 just a dude on 03.26.20 at 6:48 pm

Garth,

My sincerest hope is that a large number of people will in fact change because of today’s unprecedented events and ultimately become more responsible for themselves and their family.

I’m all for helping out my fellow citizens and have been doing the best I can lately. I too agree that governments must do what they are doing to avoid a complete collapse of our economy. But there must be limits implemented across the board to keep today’s excesses from becoming structural after the dust settles. I do not want to live in and be dependent on a communist state. It’s been feeling that way lately, especially with the recent Liberal attempt at a blatant power grab. So glad the opposition did not cave and called them out on it.

Thank you for all that you do, Garth.

#197 CJohnC on 03.26.20 at 6:48 pm

I long for the wisdom of finance minister Martin

#198 Howard on 03.26.20 at 6:50 pm

#166 Ustabe on 03.26.20 at 6:06 pm
Xi on the phone with France, Italy, Spain and Germany to offer masks and other medical equipment.

So far no call into Trumplandia. Wonder why?

———————————————

Spain and the Czech Republic purchased test kits from China and 80% proved to be faulty.

Yeah…I think the US can do without that kind of “help”.

Link? – Garth

#199 GP on 03.26.20 at 6:51 pm

“keep your rent” movement?

I invented “Don’t pay the rent event” years ago LOL

#200 GP on 03.26.20 at 6:54 pm

Sorry, all jokes aside,

I would like you to know that I’ve read you for years and greatly appreciate you keeping us all up to speed on financial matters. Thanks again!

#201 Reality is stark on 03.26.20 at 6:54 pm

Nice does not mean good.
Canadians are nice.
If you are a landlord don’t expect any rent for the next 4-6 months.
Socialism is a disease not unlike feminism.
Socialists and feminists are strong and independent until it is time to play victim.
That is when you see the true colours.
The old crocodile tears in the courtroom trick.
Reality is stark.

#202 TCC101 on 03.26.20 at 6:57 pm

DELETED

#203 theoryAndPractice on 03.26.20 at 6:57 pm

Great post. But I have to remind you it is time
Most precious thing you have but nothing else.

#204 Lost...but not leased on 03.26.20 at 7:00 pm

#137 Bobvid-19 on 03.26.20 at 5:28 pm
My niece in England – her daughter is nurse just promoted to be in charge of intensive care at a hospital in London. All her bosses have covid now. She had 9 patients on Monday and she received 40 today. Two deaths 25 years and 36 years both female. Not only old people. Her daughter knows she will catch it. She is telling all to take this seriously now. She is telling everyone to wear gloves, clean your car with rubbing alcohol after you go out doing deliveries or picking stuff up. She said London is like a war zone now in all the hospitals and the news is not sharing it. Stay home stay safe

============================

More Fear Porn……Yawwwwnnn

I will post comments from leading MDs who are very concerned re: COVID-19 Fear Porn.

For Example: One states Italy has 3x’s the respiratory ailments than rest of EU…hence health is primed for Grim Reaper aka this is FLU season….death rates are at or near norms for FLU.

This COVID 19 is simply cherry picking stats to embellish a bogus pandemic..much like AIDS (ZERO VIRUS E-V-E-R FOUND)whereby all sorts of medical professionals prostituted their ethics and jump on the funding bandwagon.

Other MDs are concerned of the collateral damage to economy, that when (not if) SHTF….public health will be much worse.

In other words….even if this “Pandemic” was over TODAY….major damage has already been done.

#205 Economystical on 03.26.20 at 7:00 pm

Calm down folks, this crisis is exactly what we were looking for to usher in the new era of economystics! Never let a good crisis go to waste. Remember our motto: “A free lunch for everybody, and nobody working in the kitchen.” This crisis enables us to implement both sides of the equation at once. It is a glorious opportunity.

Imagine if it works! (We have every confidence it will.)
No one need ever pay rent again! Or work for that matter! The Economystical utopia may be just around the corner!

But to be successful, we need everyone to act in unison. That is why we are running a “maximum fear” campaign in the media. It would be helpful if everyone would study up on economystics and personally implement the principles as soon as possible, but if you can’t then just stop paying your bills. They are capitalist oppression. Now, we didn’t start the “Keep Your Rent” movement, but it is a welcome development. If that is all you can understand to do, then join it. We must all work together to end the oppression of capitalism and sweep in the long awaited era of economystics.

#206 Bigmac on 03.26.20 at 7:04 pm

Patriot..
You don’t have to continue this.

#207 Sail Away on 03.26.20 at 7:06 pm

#184 dead cat bounce on 03.26.20 at 6:36 pm

————–

Keep working at it. Track everything- I really like Google Docs for continually-updated spreadsheets. Stick with indexes, while also tracking individual equities.

Stay safe and watch, watch, watch. If you spend enough time, read enough, and try to learn as much as possible, you will eventually start to notice openings.

Avoid debt.

#208 Piet on 03.26.20 at 7:07 pm

#168 Attrition on 03.26.20 at 6:08 pm

“Growing up, I remember the immigrant parents of so many of my friends. Italian, Chinese, Dutch, Japanese.

Without exception, they put veg gardens on every patch of dirt they had. They had good jobs and plenty of money, but a generation removed from starvation and war rationing isn’t quickly forgotten. Can’t eat stock certificates.”
————-

You’re talking about my parents. Having been brought up by survivors of two world wars, thriftiness and stockpiling of necessities comes naturally. We have a vegetable garden, fruit trees, and berry bushes. This year vegetable production is expanding into the flower beds. The ongoing effort to remove useless, water-hogging grass is being accelerated. The sod removed from the lawn is being composted and will feed next year’s crop.

#209 Sail Away on 03.26.20 at 7:13 pm

#137 Bobvid-19 on 03.26.20 at 5:28 pm

She said London is like a war zone now in all the hospitals and the news is not sharing it.

————–

Oh yes, definitely true. The media would surely not report that, because they (the media) are not into sensationalist Corvid stories in any way. So reticent.

#210 social distancing combat fatigue on 03.26.20 at 7:15 pm

In BC I paid my rent for April in full- it is not for all renters this 500.00 you must apply and have lost a job? Or is my landlord in for quite a surplus of free easy money on top of his rental income? I am not taking any free money from all this handouts. I hope all the lucky to lose enjoy their windfalls. I voluntarily quit my job with no compensation just to satisfy my narcissistic manager when I should of just stayed a year longer and made a killing? c’est la ve

#211 Bluesphere on 03.26.20 at 7:15 pm

#123 Last Chance – NWH.UN

If you’re looking for dividend yield be sure to pay attention to the payout ratio. NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (NWH-UN.TO) currently trades around $11.93 with a payout ratio over 100%. Several times a year they issue more debt and additional shares. I suspect they do this to have enough cash flow to cover the dividend and business ops. However by issuing more shares it creates a larger cash requirement to pay the dividend on a higher number of outstanding shares – which in turn increases the payout ratio. I’m not sure how they still expect to be able to pay the dividend on the increased number shares without issuing yet more shares since they obviously don’t have the cash from operations. Also a number of times this past year they were late on the dividend payments. I suspect they have multi-year lease agreements with their tenants which makes it difficult increase cash flow from ops. I expect that they eventually will have to cut the dividend. At the same time more shares put downward pressure on the share price. I don’t see how this ends well for investors with potentially no dividend and a lower share price. Having and ETF that holds several REITS mitigates your risk however you may want to research the underlying companies within the ETF.

#212 Cyrus G on 03.26.20 at 7:16 pm

Sometimes, I have no fluency in the lovely English language and it is indeed hard for me and maybe some other readers to get your points. I just have a question. Is it time to invest in stocks? Ive been saving for the past 10 years and I do have a lot of cash. Need your advice Garth and thanks for all you do! I do my best to grasp all I can from your context

#213 Contagion on 03.26.20 at 7:22 pm

noun

the communication of disease from one person to another by close contact.
“the rooms held no risk of contagion”

the spreading of a harmful idea or practice.
“the contagion of disgrace”

I’m using the second definition even though we have a lot of problem with the first right now.

My father has nearly all his retirement funds in a commercial real estate company with approximately 49 other investors, all boomers, all near or in retirement. I was previously invested as well but sold out years ago. While invested I did some cashflow modelling and determined they could survive a 10% vacancy rate for 6 months if they cut the dividend to zero. And the dividend wasn’t that great compared to “appraised value”, which just kept going up and up. These boomers were all in as to them real estate was a sure fire win and they feared any other investment.

Fast forward to today, and I don’t have any access to the financials but I know they have greatly expanded, perhaps doubled, their holdings using cheap credit and new shares. But come April 1st I estimate about 40% of the rent won’t be coming in. Obviously the shareholders aren’t going to be getting their dividends and “return of capital” in April. And the lenders won’t be paid in full either. Will they get a mortgage deferral like the banks are doing for homeowners? Or will the banks just seize the assets? Remember, there is nothing friendly about business.

#214 Bluesphere on 03.26.20 at 7:22 pm

#123 Last Chance – NWH.UN

Sorry NWH.UN is closed at $8.54 today

#215 DON on 03.26.20 at 7:26 pm

Hard Cold Truth!

How many of these lost jobs and the ones to come will not come back right away? That’s what really matters to most people.

Thanks Garth for keeping it real.

#216 Wrk.dover on 03.26.20 at 7:27 pm

All that new money is gonna fill ER with road rash from a bunch of brand new crotch rockets come May, is my immediate take on the post before reading the comments.

No change coming in spending/saving habits with Trudeau babysitting.

I’ll be at my paid for compound until the vaccination, yawn.

#217 Jack Manning on 03.26.20 at 7:27 pm

I know how you feel Garth and I know what you are talking about. The bottomline is many of the panic and irrationality now and in 2007 to 2008 will not help anyone.

As for money, it will be higher risk and devalued big time as we see mortgage rates up 50 basis points in the last week or so and inflation will get out of hand as debt and spending are not matched with future tax revenues which can only be achieved by taxing everyone.

It is a real dire situation and we will see if Donald Trump is right and we see a huge jump up that lasts awhile in the economy and consumer spending, sentiment.

#218 Millennial Mayday on 03.26.20 at 7:32 pm

Even if this crisis ends tomorrow…..seems unlikely…..Canada is headed for a long recession.

The consumer spending and house lust that has driven our economy is going to dry up while all the people who keep their houses but got a real scare will (presumably??) start paying down debt. I’m predicting less TP hoarding and more money hoarding in the foreseeable future.

#219 BlorgDorg on 03.26.20 at 7:41 pm

Garth, todays post and it’s tone says a lot about the kind of person you are. After over a decade of repeatedly warning people, explaining in maddening detail how to prepare, and being perpetually dismissed and worse, you finally have the opportunity to say “I told you so”.

And you did it with class and style. Bravo.

If it wasn’t this particular pandemic, it would have been something else. Emergencies and disasters always come; they’re a normal part of life.

I still have my worries and stresses during this episode, but thanks to you and the advice you’ve dispensed on this blog, finances aren’t among them.

#220 Yuus bin Haad on 03.26.20 at 7:45 pm

We don’t come here for platitudes and reprimands – we turn to the daily briefings for that.

#221 crazyfox on 03.26.20 at 7:48 pm

Great post today Garth, well done.

#222 Howard on 03.26.20 at 7:49 pm

#196 Howard on 03.26.20 at 6:50 pm

Spain and the Czech Republic purchased test kits from China and 80% proved to be faulty.

Yeah…I think the US can do without that kind of “help”.

Link? – Garth

——————————————-

Spain : https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/coronavirus-spain-says-rapid-tests-sent-from-china-missing-cases-2020-3

Czech Republic : https://www.praguemorning.cz/80-of-rapid-covid-19-tests-the-czech-republic-bought-from-china-are-wrong/

More : https://www.nationalreview.com/news/china-supplied-faulty-coronavirus-test-kits-to-spain-czech-republic/

If Canada purchased these test kits, Trudeau would probably thank the Chinese government profusely for the excellent 20% success rate.

#223 theoryAndPractice on 03.26.20 at 7:52 pm

How much of covid-19 stats include people got mild symptoms never traced never went to hospital and never tested and recovered on their own without knowing it they got ? I saw many people failed on simple math all these years…
I was laughing my $$$ of yesterday when I saw contagion women walking with N95 mask but
carrying a Timmies coffee… You do believe either one side or the other. It doesn’t make any sense to me.

#224 MF on 03.26.20 at 7:53 pm

“Feds asking banks/credit card companies to lower interest rates for those affected by COVID19”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/feds-seeking-lower-credit-card-interest-rates-over-covid-19-1.1412857

-Looks like it’s just credit cards, but you just know they are itching for mortgage rates to go down too. Can they do that?

MF

#225 akashic record on 03.26.20 at 8:00 pm

#219 Howard

This news was in the press all over Europe. It did not make it over here. Not newsworthy, or something like that.

#226 45north on 03.26.20 at 8:00 pm

But let’s call this for what it is – a nation that’s ventured down a dangerous path. For years we were warned about an economic shock and our runaway debt. Here it is. Witness the results.

yeah and you warned us – every day for 10 years

There are those who may fear the result will be a permanent drop in living standards – that is the case but there’s worse to come. My parents coming out of the Second World War had low living standards but they had a high sense of worth. I can only begin to describe their energy and faith. My father was raised on a hard-scrabble farm. My mother was raised in town – her father had lost a leg in the First World War. $2000 a month is not going to replace the sense of worth that comes from a job.

As the jobs tide goes out, millions are exposed swimming naked. Seventy per cent of us have real estate, but no money. Just as a majority are without pensions, or savings. Did we never expect a reversal? An emergency? Now that public debt will balloon wildly to save our collective asses, we’re creating a future of diminished promise and greater tax for every child alive.

And that is the threat – a future of diminished promise. It’s as if people’s cynical lifestyle and politicians’ cynical plans had one goal which was to bring us to this point. But they shall not prevail.

#227 Upenuff on 03.26.20 at 8:03 pm

The financial crisis and the neighbour’s kid:

You mean: no more $5.25 Latte five days aweek?
no more $225 cable bill for all the special tv channels,
no more leasing my car because it looks so cool?
Some people are doomed and pay for their no need to save money…….

#228 Doug in London on 03.26.20 at 8:06 pm

@Cyrus G, post #210:
Should you invest in stocks now? Many times I’ve seen people out in the cold, lining up at stores on Boxing Day or Black Friday before opening time so they can be the first to get in and scoop up bargains. On these days shopping malls are crowded, full of bargain hunters. Right now, stocks are on sale like combining Boxing Day and Black Friday together into the same day. The stock markets have recovered some, so the optimum time to buy in was last week. If stocks have a down day, hire the biggest and most powerful bulldozer you can, run it at full throttle, then mercilessly and ruthlessly use it to ram as much money into stocks, or better yet equity ETFs, as you possibly can.

#229 MF on 03.26.20 at 8:11 pm

“Time for your meds, Tony. – Garth”

Lol missed this gem^

MF

#230 Jager on 03.26.20 at 8:13 pm

Sorry about the shortages Doc’… we’d like to help you out but had a “knee jerk” moment.

“Canada Gave Away Medical Equipment (16 tons) to China Before Facing Shortages”

https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2020/02/canada-supports-chinas-ongoing-response-to-novel-coronavirus-outbreak.html

#231 Sydneysider on 03.26.20 at 8:14 pm

The scientist in me watches in amazement as Canadian politicians set to work to destroy the economy without any plan at all.

The rent rebellion is the first hint that young people won’t stand this vandalism, in Canada, or anywhere else.

#232 short horses on 03.26.20 at 8:18 pm

Great photo, Garth! My wife is officially a blog dog now.

It’s really alarming how many people are swimming naked and how often I see them on CBC whining about it. My own fortress of solitude is rented because, thanks in large part to your blog, all of my money is tied up in a globally diversified portfolio of low cost ETFs (including preferred shares and their regular cash-flow).

#233 willworkforpickles on 03.26.20 at 8:18 pm

Moreover he must have a good report of them which are without; lest he fall into reproach and the snare of the devil. Timothy 1 3:7

#234 YouKnowWho on 03.26.20 at 8:19 pm

Like anyone will listen Garth.

As you were Canada…so far, your behaviour has been rewarded, bailed, forgiven.

Why spend energy and effort planning for a rainy day like a foolish squirrel? When a little movement, a hash tag or two and boom. All is forgiven.

Although…I’m not seeing any debt forgiveness, any deleveraging of that 176.3% household debt. Banks will want to keep that debt intact obviously. Let see how that works out.

Who thinks the banks will be bailed out too? A 2-for-1 bailout. Government pays the dead beat debt, bails bank out under guise of helping those in debt. That’s how it’s gonna be. You’ll be sorry you’re not part of the 176.3% soon.

#235 Ustabe on 03.26.20 at 8:19 pm

If Canada purchased these test kits, Trudeau would probably thank the Chinese government profusely for the excellent 20% success rate.

Howard, you can do better than that. Childish, not germane to your point whatsoever and indicative of why the CPC will never get their act together and be able to form a coherent government any time soon.

Bring solutions, not problems. I say that as a person who was on the Progressive Conservative party’s federal payroll for two years. They called it rural outreach but I was really just a bagman. Provincially, on the payroll for 3 years. Actually helped get PC candidates elected. Your constant worry about Trudeau isn’t helping. You cause our politicians to be distracted from the real work when they feel that have to pander to these sorts of unfocused positions.

And the result of all that is exemplified in the last election.

Think.

Harder.

#236 BS on 03.26.20 at 8:19 pm

But let’s call this for what it is – a nation that’s ventured down a dangerous path. For years we were warned about an economic shock and our runaway debt. Our lack of savings. Our house lust. Our bad habits. Our wants. Here it is. Witness the results.

Which is why we will make new lows in the stock markets over the coming weeks. We had bad news which brought the market down (the virus spreading), then good news this week (stimulus, etc.). Next is more bad news in the economy which will bring new market lows. That will eventually be followed by good news which may be an approved virus treatment or a firm back to work date.

If you have not bought in, it is not too late. Wait for the next leg down to at least test the old lows but likely to go lower. Some may consider lightening up and buy back in when markets are 20% cheaper. Or just hold. I wouldn’t be buying right now though. Just my opinion. Worth what you paid for it.

#237 yvr_lurker on 03.26.20 at 8:20 pm

#137 Bobvid-19 on 03.26.20 at 5:28 pm

She said London is like a war zone now in all the hospitals and the news is not sharing it.

————–

Oh yes, definitely true. The media would surely not report that, because they (the media) are not into sensationalist Corvid stories in any way. So reticent.

——————————————–

You are sounding more and more like a disciple of Fox news. All of it a hoax. Why don’t you limit yourself to 2 posts a day. There are health-care workers all over the world in the hot-spots (NYC, London, Lombardy, Madrid) who would pound you out for your inflaming comments. However, they are a bit busy these days. Please go and tend your garden at your house in shaughnessy to make it look better so that when you sell it will sell for a 20% haircut off your asking price.

#238 Rowdie on 03.26.20 at 8:22 pm

As usual an excellent post… love the photo of the pup with kitty… it’s a wait see approach here in Canada how things pan out, and we know there will be a lot of pain.. as bewarned by you is to save and rent. We have for many years.. alas still looking at buying a small rancher..CHEAP! Might be in our cards this time. I do hope people in general smarten up and live within their means. Life will go on…

#239 Stahom on 03.26.20 at 8:28 pm

The looming tax recovery of this massive money give away has me looking for answers. Corporations can negotiate consistent tax rates based on number of hires, any broken threshold and the axe falls. Individually for high marginal rate payers, if it gets too much above present, can use social media the same way as activists and have a tax revolt with a convenient #dontpayCRA hashtag. Yes some of us will get clipped but the massive audit burden on the department may incite a review of policy. Thoughts?

Good luck all and thanks Garth.

#240 just a guy on 03.26.20 at 8:32 pm

Stock market reacts up until May, then whithers on slow sell offs, then builds again to delayed tax date July 15, then insiders dump and suck back fresh contributions. Only variable is Trump’s power to control stimuli. If he has it, markets will show positive moves after July. If not, a hissing sound to follow. Main Street is blown out until 2021-22.
I might look at a pre 70s Camero in May, or a rare Fender. Probably won’t see definitive momentum until August. Would I sell off my basket now? Probably not, but the neighbour still might. Get pro advice, don’t use this comment. I just wanted to etch the prediction on Garth’s wall.

#241 crazyfox on 03.26.20 at 8:35 pm

#9 Joe Schmoe on 03.26.20 at 2:00 pm

Today’s Chinese response is eye opening. It suggests 2 things: They don’t have much faith in this virus being overtly seasonal and they understand the economic cost of shutting down cities and provinces only too well. China closing borders is concerning since China, along with other Asian nations, has been a leader on how to contain this thing. Wuhan is scheduled to lift it’s quarantine on April 8th. If they can go to zero cases, any city in the world can with the will, resources and know how. There’s a message in that.

Even if we don’t trust the numbers out of China (and we should), we should trust the numbers out of South Korea. These are charts of what a functional economy looks like in tandem with viral containment, i.e. success:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

There’s a lag… 5 day average and 7 day average to serious/critical symptoms if they come. I was going to say if Canadians don’t take it seriously, our future comparing the numbers and government response could more easily look like France in 2 weeks time but our report card is pretty much already baked in:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Hopefully Canadians have already voluntarily learned their lesson. It’s a no brainer, we need to look at the government models of success and failure, make the best choices given the circumstances and implement them here, whatever works. In China, everyone was asked to take everyone’s temp for example, twice daily. When is the last time we had our temp taken?:

https://qz.com/1810651/south-koreans-are-using-smartphone-apps-to-avoid-coronavirus/

#242 Lost...but not leased on 03.26.20 at 8:35 pm

So Garth…

Given potential renters strike..

REITS are toast..?!?

#243 Two-thirds on 03.26.20 at 8:38 pm

A week ago in response to a colleague’s comment regarding people getting in financial trouble due to the current situation, heard another colleague respond with “helicopter money” is on the way.

Amazing how fast and accurate that prediction was.

The bigger question is how will today’s public borrowing be paid? And when?

Will those who receive benefits now, have to repay them later on once their situation improves? Or will the prudent ones, living below their means, saving, investing, avoiding debt, be the ones paying for all of this?

Judging by this government’s record, the few will pay for the many, and personal responsibility could be replaced, permanently, by public largesse. A dependent citizen should make a most loyal voter, right? Who cares about the minority of voters that get the privilege of carrying the load for the most?

Emergency powers for the current government are in effect for 6 months, so let us watch carefully what unfolds. Hold on to your pennies, or buy hard assets?

#244 Dianne M Maley on 03.26.20 at 8:42 pm

Whew! I was so worried about the kitten.

#245 TRON on 03.26.20 at 8:43 pm

Imagine you are a leader of any of the G20 a couple of years after SARS and you are approached by a group of medical experts on contagious diseases. They tell you another pandemic is possible and likely but what they don’t know is where or when. They have scientific models of outcome that include a few very common symptoms. You’re told respirators, hospital gowns and face masks etc. will be in short supply and would result in many more deaths and the spread of the disease.

So with all this information you could take precautionary measures and prepare as we do with earthquakes, floods and hurricanes. You could stock a huge warehouse with equipment and supplies ie. surgical masks as a precautionary measure so that the your citizens are better prepared with potentially better outcomes.

Sadly none of that happened. This health crisis could have been a health problem. This lack of action rests solely on the bureaucrats and government leaders who have failed us. Will they be held accountable?

I don’t believe in government hand outs but equally disagree with the ever growing massive gap between rich and poor.

Yes, Canadians have put themselves in financial crisis by not saving and borrowing beyond their means. They are suffering the consequences of that and will pay the price. However, let’s not allow the people we trust with governing our nation walk from this health crisis without consequences other then maybe not getting re-elected. A full investigation is needed to find out how much the government was warned about the precautions needed to protect the citizens they serve.

I’m paying my rent and believe those who don’t but can have bigger issues to deal with in their lives. Freedom comes with responsibility.

#246 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 8:44 pm

#234 yvr_lurker on 03.26.20 at 8:20 pm

Please go and tend your garden at your house in shaughnessy to make it look better so that when you sell it will sell for a 20% haircut off your asking price.

——————–

Yes, that millstone. Assessments dropped 33% in the last couple of years and now that it was going on the market in April, this happens. A finish carpenter has been living/working there for the last 6 weeks and the place looks amazing.

My UBC son was also living there, but now he’s back home and it’s vacant except for Medalta pottery. Don’t tell the City gestapo. No renters, that’s for damn sure.

Looks like it will be with me for some while longer.

#247 fishman on 03.26.20 at 8:49 pm

So glad to see “economystic” back in the fold. Here I was about to be the harbinger of doom. Lecturing my fellow bloggies on the necessity of hardening up the bunker. Preparing for the coming onslaught of feral young men in robber gangs. And then, like a rainbow of pure essence, “economystics.”What me worry?

#248 Basil Fawlty on 03.26.20 at 8:54 pm

“Pandemics are not structural. They pass. Of course markets will restore in anticipation of economic rebuilding. What other possible outcome is there? – Garth”

A depression and financial reset?

#249 Ferd on 03.26.20 at 8:54 pm

So here is my problem..had a 30 year old business, shut it down because the product that I was selling got killed by China imports..looking to get into something else..nothing yet. Can’t claim UIC, so living off savings. Can’t apply for any of the Liberal freebies cause I didn’t “earn” $ 5000 last year. I paid all the taxes that was demanded and get nothing out of it. Everybody figures screw the business owner as they are getting all the breaks..give your head a shake people..there are a lot of us that worked year round and got paid less than our employees and get nothing from government to help us out.

#250 Randy on 03.26.20 at 8:55 pm

Big Pension Funds are still screwed. Our Governments should look at revising their gold-plated fully-defined pension programs….they are not sustainable and don’t relate to the world that the average taxpayer is facing.

#251 BB on 03.26.20 at 8:56 pm

@#234 re: “Why don’t you limit yourself to 2 posts a day. ”

SA can’t. He has a personality disorder. It is up to our blog host do to control the commenting.

#252 Ah on 03.26.20 at 9:05 pm

Not everyone who applies for EI has no savings. Might as well take EI if it is being offered. You would be the greater fool if you didn’t.

#253 Ted fifty four on 03.26.20 at 9:06 pm

Garth you have warned us for years and years this day was coming. I listened and learned and have the resources to survive and to take advantage as we emerge from this mess. Thank you, you saved my ass.

#254 Cici on 03.26.20 at 9:06 pm

No hate here, I think you’re absolutely right. But to be absolutely fair, the average Joe with no savings and no back-up plan has been encouraged by the media, FIRE industry, and government and central bank policies to borrow big, spend bigger and expect sunshine, flowers, and never-ending gains and prosperity. And the low-rate savings environment hasn’t exactly encouraged good savings habits…after all, who in their right mind wants to win a zero-sum game?

#255 conan on 03.26.20 at 9:07 pm

It will be interesting to see what happens in Russia. I think Putin is allowing Covid to wreck havoc without doing too much to flatten the curve. Probably has something to do with people living longer and the State pension system is suspect to say the least.

#256 Rob on 03.26.20 at 9:11 pm

Dug a bit more of the garden today. Planted potatoes and early brassicas. They’ll be ready to eat in May. Lots of seeds sprouting in the greenhouse, ready for transplanting when it warms up a bit. The chickens are laying more now that the days are longer. Apple, cherry, peach, apricot and pear trees are pruned. Raspberry canes are tied up. The freezers are still well stocked and there’s lots of food left in the roothouse. The wood pile still has a few cords split and dried, ready to burn. My grandfather lived through the Spanish Flu, two wars and a depression and tried to teach me that a crisis is simply bad planning. Stay healthy. Good luck.

#257 PotHead on 03.26.20 at 9:12 pm

All I can say is thank god the illegal online pot shops have not been declared non-essential!

#258 Attrition on 03.26.20 at 9:14 pm

#248 BB on 03.26.20 at 8:56 pm

@#234 re: “Why don’t you limit yourself to 2 posts a day. ”

SA can’t. He has a personality disorder. It is up to our blog host do to control the commenting.

Can the sanctimonious pricks who think anyone’s comments should be limited other than their own and those they agree with please piss off?

I happen to greatly enjoy SA’s wit and attitude. I also have great distaste for many others, and yet wouldn’t stoop to asking any of those commenters to be limited.

#259 KJ on 03.26.20 at 9:15 pm

Hey Garth……..I have an idea.

The Government of Canada will allow people with RRSP to make a withdrawal to buy a house. Why not allow those of us with RRSP savings, who have suffered TEMPORARY job loss due to Covid, make emergency RRSP withdrawals without penalty?

Rather than draw from current government piggy banks, let us “borrow” from ourselves and leave more money to be directed to help during this current crisis.

#260 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 9:15 pm

#248 BB on 03.26.20 at 8:56 pm
@#234 re: “Why don’t you limit yourself to 2 posts a day. ”

SA can’t. He has a personality disorder. It is up to our blog host do to control the commenting.

———————–

It’s true. I can’t help giving. Give, give, give.

When people ask why I am so giving, my only response is, “I can’t help it. It’s my nature.”

#261 mao on 03.26.20 at 9:19 pm

hypocrites. you make me sick. millions of children die of hunger every year since forever, and no one cared… because hunger is not contagious. your right to work has been taken away now because the virus can be contagious to the #$%$#@^ elites. so suddenly safety is all important, so much that we won’t have money for housing, food or clothing. in any crisis, always the working class pays the price. and this one too. and this Garth character is trying to blame the people for mismanagement by the elites. people work very hard and in this day and age of technology, no one should be dying from preventable causes, such as hunger. you cannot shock large numbers of people without the danger of riots and revolutions. if stability means to maintain the status quo, i do not want stability.

#262 READ on 03.26.20 at 9:24 pm

#238 crazyfox on 03.26.20 at 8:35 pm

https://bit.ly/2WN7gEo

#263 PastThePeak on 03.26.20 at 9:25 pm

No one will learn anything. Just read the comments section. Ignorance knows no bounds.

Yes, that means there is one last go around for ever increasing public and private debt. Then it is done.

#264 John in Mtl on 03.26.20 at 9:25 pm

The government is helping everyone, small businesses and gig workers for a reason. They are certainly not doing it out of kind heartedness to anyone.

They are doing it to protect the integrity of big finance, big industry, big business, banks, CMHC and every other entity that, if a lot of them fail at the same time, it will then be economic apocalypse for sure.

It is done to keep the system on which we mostly all depend, propped up from collapsing on itself. Civility does hang on by a very thin thread… imagine the repercussions… it would be like “the great depression”.

#265 Dolce Vita on 03.26.20 at 9:27 pm

“This will be a revisit of the 1930s. It cannot happen. Nor will it.”

The GREAT RESET.

Economic Shock by Mother Nature.

What should have happened after 2008 that never did, will.

Zombie companies and reckless investors will fall to the wayside, taken out of the economy forever or decades. There is no largesse in the Social Net to save them, nor should it.

Creative Destruction will occur.

#266 Renter's Revenge! on 03.26.20 at 9:28 pm

#154 TheYoungGreek on 03.26.20 at 5:49 pm
What really pisses me off is that some of the people who 2 months ago were participating in the blockades trying to shut down our economy, will now be collecting $2k/month from the government. Think about where that money is coming from. Better yet, don’t apply for it and go live off the land.

==============

Legend has it those people are still blocking the tracks to this day… and they’ve never heard of Coronavirus!

#267 Chaddywack on 03.26.20 at 9:30 pm

@234

Got something against Shaughnessy?

What hood do you represent?

#268 Renter's Revenge! on 03.26.20 at 9:31 pm

#155 JSS on 03.26.20 at 5:50 pm
i just don’t have enough cash to take advantage of the great deals on the DJIA, NASDAQ, and TSX.

=======

Don’t be so hard on yourself. Nobody ever has enough cash to take advantage of the great deals during episodes like this (except maybe the Fed).

#269 Yukon Elvis on 03.26.20 at 9:33 pm

#253 Rob on 03.26.20 at 9:11 pm

The chickens are laying more now that the days are longer.
……………………………….

I had a light on a timer in the hen house and the chickens laid well all year round. By the end of year two the laying slowed right down so we ate a lot chicken for a while.

#270 BB on 03.26.20 at 9:38 pm

” I happen to greatly enjoy SA’s wit and attitude.”

Birds of a feather…

SA’s not witty, he’s sick.

#271 Canadarm 2 on 03.26.20 at 9:40 pm

Wouldn’t it have been more efficient to subsidize the LLs and Grocery chains to allow people to temporarily live rent free and allow people to simply get their groceries “free”, with appropriate measures to limit supplies, and thus have avoided the hoarding and price gouging, instead of creating this massively, unprecedented, payout to millions of INDIVIDUALS?? Just putting it out there…

#272 C8.R on 03.26.20 at 9:48 pm

My wife lost all her part time shifts, I just found out my employer is reducing all salaried pay 20% to ride out this storm. Thanks to the School of Garth and all he has taught our GTA family over the years, we have no debt and no worries. Living below your means comes in handy. We have investments and a long term perspective and now everything is on sale. Sweet. Thank you Garth for your witt, wisdom and perspective… I am honored you do this blog day in and day out.

#273 Sail away on 03.26.20 at 9:53 pm

Thanks Attrition. And likewise.

Don’t worry too much about Karen. I find it endearing the way she always corrects her posts, sort of like her mouth runs faster than her brain.

And directives to Garth are cute as well.

#274 will on 03.26.20 at 9:56 pm

i think the guy’s name was jim prentice, who said:

look in the mirror people…

#275 Ronaldo on 03.26.20 at 9:58 pm

Thinking of getting me one of these to go along with my power generator.

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/03/25/low-cost-ventilator-could-be-available-next-year-will-it

#276 Marco on 03.26.20 at 10:02 pm

#258 mao on 03.26.20 at 9:19 pm

Well, the way you talk…
Great investors here with well balanced portfolios
would disagree

#277 neo on 03.26.20 at 10:08 pm

A few thoughts.

1.) What isn’t being talked about enough is employees who aren’t getting laid off are taking massive pay cuts in order to avoid it. After several weeks or months of that not sure there will be enough in the chamber for that pent up demand you are talking about.

2.) Regardless of the number of consecutive up days this is still a bear market rally. Going violently up in either direction is a par the course historically for such a thing. Moreover, this is also just end of the month rebalancing by big players.

3.) You’ve ignore it the whole time but there has been a credit event in the works well before anybody knew what Coronavirus was. The Fed has been bailing out the Repo market since September 2019. The Fed has been bailing out overleveraged Hedge Funds with market imploding margin calls this whole month. The financial system isn’t on good footing whatsoever is a bigger issue than this virus.

#278 will on 03.26.20 at 10:15 pm

related video, you will love it:

https://sputniknews.com/videoclub/202003221078667162-do-you-trust-me-cat-and-dog-sleep-in-very-strange-pose/

#279 not 1st on 03.26.20 at 10:16 pm

Guys, if you have CNN or CBC in your home do yourself a favor and turn it off.

Here is the CDC chief laying out the truth on the ground in the US.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1243303234179158016

And here is what you get when you panic and act stupid

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/un-warns-of-global-food-shortage-caused-by-coronavirus-measures-report/ar-BB11LyIS?ocid=spartanntp

#280 Barb on 03.26.20 at 10:26 pm

Poignant story of the brave pooch going back to get his lil buddy.

#281 kommykim on 03.26.20 at 10:26 pm

#155 JSS on 03.26.20 at 5:50 pm
i just don’t have enough cash to take advantage of the great deals on the DJIA, NASDAQ, and TSX.

========================================

This is where the 60/40 balanced portfolio comes into play. You should have had 40% of your assets in fixed income such as bond ETFs, HISA, etc. Now is the time you could rebalance by selling some bond ETFs and buy more equity ETFs so it’s back to the 60/40 ratio. Times like these are when the 100% equity portfolio under performs and freaks people out.

#282 Two-thirds on 03.26.20 at 10:30 pm

Is the “keep your rent” movement emblematic of a much bigger (and alarming) trend?

First, people illegally blockading railways refuse to stop doing so, without consequence.

Next, people refuse to pay for something they committed legally to do so, unilaterally. Without consequence?

Now government is legally pushing money into millions of hands and will legally raise taxes for some to pay for this. Only the latter would suffer consequences, of the newly approved law.

The law is subverted by some, without consequence, while the law is used to impose consequences on others, who did not even break it?

Our laws used to be fair, universal and respected.

Whatever happened to our Canada?

#283 CC on 03.26.20 at 10:31 pm

#248 BB on 03.26.20 at 8:56 pm
@#234 re: “Why don’t you limit yourself to 2 posts a day. ”

SA can’t. He has a personality disorder. It is up to our blog host do to control the commenting.

———————–

It’s true. I can’t help giving. Give, give, give.

When people ask why I am so giving, my only response is, “I can’t help it. It’s my nature.”

========================
You have an awesome life SA, from what you portray. Lots of $. A successful business. A family. Dogs that love you even though you like to eat dog meat.

So, why do you feel the need to “win” against anonymous people on a blog? To put them down? To make yourself feel superior? To have the last insulting words?

#284 april on 03.26.20 at 10:33 pm

Do anyone of you read Martin Armstrong? What do you think of his analysis of what’s going on regarding the covid -19?

#285 Ria on 03.26.20 at 10:36 pm

a person that paid into ei for years is going to make same amount as person that hasn’t , I think the CERB should have been a top up for those who qualified for ei , so our income would not be effected

#286 Moses71 on 03.26.20 at 11:06 pm

“For years I have been trying to teach my now twenty-something y.o. son about responsibility and consequences, about saving and being prepared for hard times.
His answer? “I want to live, and not just survive.”
So I gave up… Some people are only able to learn through hardship and after suffering the consequences of their own mistakes. Some, not even then. Few are those willing to really learn from others.”
Well, don’t give up. Once he gets over thyself, there’s still lots of time. Especially after a few stings or spooks of his own. I watched parents and others in my family making up to $250k/yr blow it and be left with diddly after many mistakes. After I got over myself, I paid attention. Surprising what one can do in as little as 10 years. Still hopeful..

#287 Treasure Island CEO - 304.76 Ounces of Gold Within Bicycle Distance on 03.26.20 at 11:08 pm

Watch how big the virus numbers get for the month of April.

April is when everyone craps their pants and starts taking this thing for real.

After April slowly but surely will get closer to reopening.

Anticipating Late May / June. Then we see what the real damage is.

#288 Idealistic Realist on 03.26.20 at 11:12 pm

#147 CC on 03.26.20 at 5:41 pm

– – –

Ugh, such a millennial.

Penny Henny, FTW!

#289 not 1st on 03.26.20 at 11:15 pm

Here is the guy that scared the entire world with his modelling 3 weeks ago that cause politicians to shut down our entire economy.

Already revising his numbers down by a factor of 10.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#

And calmly states we will be paying for the damage to the economy for the next 10 yrs. I never trust egghead academics.

#290 Remind me! on 03.26.20 at 11:20 pm

Never to work for Sail Away and
never hire penny henny

#291 Idealistic Realist on 03.26.20 at 11:24 pm

#147 CC on 03.26.20 at 5:41 pm

– – –

Ugh, such a millennial.

Penny Henny, FTW!

#292 Barb on 03.26.20 at 11:25 pm

Rethinking the picture:
Hope it’s not a metaphor (Trudeau = the dog; we serfs are the kitten).

Nah.
Time for bed.

#293 PastThePeak on 03.26.20 at 11:26 pm

Most people (our host included) continue to underestimate the actual health impact of SARS-CoV-2, and as a result, will continue to underestimate the impact on the economy and asset values. Their portfolios will suffer accordingly.

This will not be over by May. The USA is a about a month behind Italy (which is maybe flattening) and 3 weeks behind Spain (still growing). Italy is in week 4 of various stages of economic shutdown and shelter-in-place.

The USA just started this past weekend. It will take a few more weeks (at best) for USA to peak (outside of the Tri-State area, few states are aggressively testing, so real scope is hard to determine). The New York medical system is already maxing out, now resorting to sharing ventilators. Next comes ICU rationing like Italy (e.g. when deaths start to really rise).

This isn’t the end of civilization (although it might be the fatal blow to the current global financial system this decade), but it isn’t just a “bad flu season” as most seem to believe. The data says otherwise.

Of course this “too shall pass”…everything does. Doesn’t mean it won’t be a rocky ride, and that real damage won’t be done. Anyone that thinks the equity market damage was contained to 4 weeks isn’t paying attention (which is also not a surprise…)

#294 William R Drury on 03.26.20 at 11:28 pm

I agree, not the governments responsibility for personal responsibility. Maybe expecting governments to provide
everything individuals should step up and keep their freedom with the coresponding responsibilities. Kinda of
communism versus capitalism.

#295 One big conspiracy on 03.26.20 at 11:29 pm

So the Iranians hired the Chinese to create a contagion
to destroy America with backing from Greta to clean up the air so the Mills can collect their inheritance from
their dying boomer parents?

Sounds plausible.

#296 Jimers on 03.26.20 at 11:41 pm

This is just a pause before the latest round of runaway inflation, based on the Trillion$ in global stimulus. The business to re-fit the world to be virus safer will be huge for the economy, and make the world more productive in the long run.

#297 Calgary on 03.26.20 at 11:48 pm

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/truckers-refusing-to-deliver-food-into-nyc

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=escape+from+new+york

USA No. 1

#298 Claiming overseas income on 03.26.20 at 11:56 pm

I’m self-declaring overseas income and will be hit with a big tax bill this year. Should I sell some MSCI ETFs for a tax loss to offset this year’s tax payment? I hope to reinvest at a lower price after 30 days.

#299 DON on 03.27.20 at 12:00 am

#208 social distancing combat fatigue on 03.26.20 at 7:15 pm

In BC I paid my rent for April in full- it is not for all renters this 500.00 you must apply and have lost a job? Or is my landlord in for quite a surplus of free easy money on top of his rental income? I am not taking any free money from all this handouts. I hope all the lucky to lose enjoy their windfalls. I voluntarily quit my job with no compensation just to satisfy my narcissistic manager when I should of just stayed a year longer and made a killing? c’est la ve
**************

Yup BC is only providing relief if you lost your job or are on temporary layoff. With respect to the Banks, it only applies if you lost your job (on a case by case basis – yah not good and now they know you/spouse lost a job, it is your duty to tell them anyway).

I guess the debate with respect to socialsim vs capitalism is on hold for a long while.

So we have businesses and renters in the “Do not pay you rent” movement. Interesting.

Interesting times, indeed!

#300 DON on 03.27.20 at 12:06 am

#222 akashic record on 03.26.20 at 8:00 pm

#219 Howard

This news was in the press all over Europe. It did not make it over here. Not newsworthy, or something like that.
***************

I use a VPN account to search for news and noticed that I get different news stories when I bounce around from server to server in different countries. Going from a Canada server I get dribble.

The country wide strikes in France were hardly talked about outside of Europe.

#301 alf on 03.27.20 at 12:15 am

#253 Rob on 03.26.20 at 9:11 pm
Dug a bit more of the garden today. Planted potatoes and early brassicas. They’ll be ready to eat in May. Lots of seeds sprouting in the greenhouse, ready for transplanting when it warms up a bit. The chickens are laying more now that the days are longer. Apple, cherry, peach, apricot and pear trees are pruned. Raspberry canes are tied up. The freezers are still well stocked and there’s lots of food left in the roothouse. The wood pile still has a few cords split and dried, ready to burn. My grandfather lived through the Spanish Flu, two wars and a depression and tried to teach me that a crisis is simply bad planning. Stay healthy. Good luck.

——-

I didn’t do any of that stuff. Where do you live?

Just kidding

#302 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.27.20 at 12:19 am

Sailor boy:
Time to self isolate in your mother’s basement.

#303 Freebee Jeebees on 03.27.20 at 12:20 am

The Gov’s new plan will encourage everyone to stop paying and looking for a handout. Why the hell are they giving $2000.00 of our money for X4 months to 15 year olds who made $5000 at a summer job? And deferring mortgages for 6 mos? Why should anybody pay? And then the feds will have to cover the costs. This gaffe will cost Trillions and lead to the Greatest Recession!

#304 WUL on 03.27.20 at 12:26 am

I smiled and chuckled when Economystical reappeared here. Life would be even more enhanced if the Mayor of Milton arrived back.

Your Worship? Where are ye?

WUL

M64Closing Time in The Mac

#305 Economystic on 03.27.20 at 12:38 am

#244 fishman on 03.26.20 at 8:49 pm

“So glad to see “economystic” back in the fold. Here I was about to be the harbinger of doom. Lecturing my fellow bloggies on the necessity of hardening up the bunker. Preparing for the coming onslaught of feral young men in robber gangs. And then, like a rainbow of pure essence, “economystics.”What me worry?

I have been busy these past years consulting with governments to best use this pandemic to our advantage and reform the world for the better. Now, we did not cause the pandemic, but it is not a “black swan”, we knew we would get one eventually. It is a “white swan”. Everyone knew it was coming, we especially. Frankly it occurred before we were ready but much work had been done and we’ll go with what we have got. At the end of this crisis, paradise! No one will have to work or pay any bills they don’t want to and the government will provide for all!

Remember, “A free lunch for everybody and nobody working in the kitchen!”

Sadly I must leave for a few days to weeks again to consult with the world leaders in my private, disinfected jet. Leadership must go on. And anyway there is a sale on jet fuel. Didn’t see that coming, did you? We did.

#306 Greaseaus, Where's My Effin' Money Goin'?? on 03.27.20 at 12:48 am

Comments are apocalyptic….
Here’s one, Workaholics..Season 4, Episode 10:
1:30 mins. in…..Dog related….
Which ‘eau is which……dogs???

#307 bdwy sktrn on 03.27.20 at 12:52 am

Legend has it those people are still blocking the tracks to this day… and they’ve never heard of Coronavirus!==========================

free $$$ in the mail and a chance to screw their landlords?…

they’ve heard of it alright. parasites live for this stuff.

anything other than working is ideal.

————————-
the market? , back to red tomorrow. likely re-test the lows.

nyc is getting bombed and is sorely lacking in the harsh measures now used even in italy, spain and france.

#308 DON on 03.27.20 at 12:52 am

#233 BS on 03.26.20 at 8:19 pm

But let’s call this for what it is – a nation that’s ventured down a dangerous path. For years we were warned about an economic shock and our runaway debt. Our lack of savings. Our house lust. Our bad habits. Our wants. Here it is. Witness the results.

Which is why we will make new lows in the stock markets over the coming weeks. We had bad news which brought the market down (the virus spreading), then good news this week (stimulus, etc.). Next is more bad news in the economy which will bring new market lows. That will eventually be followed by good news which may be an approved virus treatment or a firm back to work date.

If you have not bought in, it is not too late. Wait for the next leg down to at least test the old lows but likely to go lower. Some may consider lightening up and buy back in when markets are 20% cheaper. Or just hold. I wouldn’t be buying right now though. Just my opinion. Worth what you paid for it.
************

Sadly, something tells me you are right. The stimulus roll out was painfully drawnout to keep the headlines promising. Daily pumping by Trump.

China has the same Corporate debt problems, second wave of virus in factories and limited demand. The West is locked down. There is talk about the US running out of storage space for oil. They have been buying up oil to counter the oil price war. Now there is chatter about storing it in the pipelines. Low demand for oil. Talk of storing it in pipelines. Trump has the perfect moment to turn and defend Americans, ‘Uncle Trump’ but talks more of markets and his personal losses.

The election is up for grabs now, could Bernie come up the middle of the two pillars waving the people’s flag into the White House? This will be interesting. Most won’t be happy with wall street bailouts still some sore feelings from 2008?

Variables have changed.

#309 Not So New guy on 03.27.20 at 1:04 am

This is the parable of the grasshopper and the ant…

…or maybe it should be changed to the grass smoker and the ant

#310 Jimers on 03.27.20 at 1:23 am

It will be interesting to see what happens to the “dont pay the rent” crowd, people who are typically not disciplined enough to save a down payment for a house, get 6 months behind in rent. Remember its a deferral not a holiday and at some point if the rent is not paid in full they get evicted and replaced for new tenets paying higher rents.

As well, isn’t this stimulus money being printed the
US Fed, not borrowed?

#311 Stan Brooks on 03.27.20 at 1:23 am

#145 Terry on 03.26.20 at 5:37 pm
“If leaders do not support people, the economy will crater for years. It will take a generation to rebuild. This will be a revisit of the 1930s. It cannot happen. Nor will it.”

An Economic Depression? Yes, it will happen. The demand curve erasure has still not hit bottom. The pool of people able to buy and consume is disappearing by millions every week. Governments can helicopter money to the masses for some of their immediate needs for a while…….but the main problem going forward is that they have SCARED THE CRAP out of everyone! This alone CHANGES EVERYTHING! Life for everyone will NEVER BE WHAT IT WAS for quite probably the rest of our lifetimes. Adaptation and the new age of thrift and self sufficiency starts again. Good luck everyone!

Absolutely.

Once the jobs are gone, supply chains disrupted, once confidence disappears and fear settles, once people got burned and learn not to spend, it will take many years if not decades to go back to mindless consumption and borrowing. Except that this time that ‘ling time’ will mostly likely be never ever.

GTA could easily Detroit-ize.

We were running on fumes and easy credit/zero rates/over leverage for over 15 years. Now this is gone, the economy is not in good shape and all is done in the supposedly ‘social’ country is to protect the banks profits by ‘helping’ broken borrowers. 4 times the fired people of US/per capita in 2 weeks despite them being ‘wild capitalists’ and us being ‘social’ country. This is our solidarity folks, fire the poor broken debt slaves at the first sign of trouble.

As for the ‘winners’ who bought houses: A house/a condo is worth nothing when there is no economy around to support it/see Detroit and Chicago, Cleveland.

How long did it take for them to ‘recover’ from their past troubles? Like never? Have you seen their crime statistics?

I have been warning about selling the house and leaving the big cities. Now is too late, that house is worth nothing as there is no market, people are jobless, it is clear that houses will fall big time and nobody with money (not that there are many) will buy, banks will hardly lend and will want ‘insurance’ for the mortgage (CHMC is already overstretched).

And who will pay for all that ‘mortgage insurance’, handouts, etc, the non-existent taxpayer?

So congratulations to the ‘winners’ of the housing market, you won, you had the time to claim the ticket/prize, you did not and now it is all gone.

You can print a sign ‘I could have been rich’, frame it and hang it in the toilet.

Cheers,

#312 DGB on 03.27.20 at 1:43 am

from b.c. also paying my rent in full..why should my landlord who keeps a safe roof over my head, pays the property tax,building insurance to have renters,fis anything needed, replace a fridge or stove or dishwasher or waterheater and are good people , why should they suffer because I want to be an a$$…I will not join the a$$ club !!!!

#313 Not So New guy on 03.27.20 at 1:54 am

I just read what BC considers an essential service. I read Ontarios before since there was nowhere to find one for BC (the government was talking about essential services and nowhere was it listed on their website that could be easily found, of course). They are pretty much the same.

Basically, it’s *almost* everyone…’cept that one guy…

https://globalnews.ca/news/6736076/essential-service-coronavirus/

And don’t forget folks. Even during the depression, 25% unemployed meant that 75% were still employed.

Don’t listen to the ‘glass is one-quarter empty’ media. It will only get you down

#314 Not So New guy on 03.27.20 at 2:11 am

#39 Katherine on 03.26.20 at 2:42 pm

As for the photo Garth, it totally melted my heart especially after reading “about the photo.” Thanks for posting kitty photos every once in awhile.

=================================

Take THAT, Felix.

Felix replies:

Cat goes out of it’s way to put itself in danger so as to make some dumb dog look good

#315 Harold on 03.27.20 at 2:25 am

I invested when the DJI was 28000 and again at a dip of 26000ish. I have to wait at least until the market recovers right? No debt. Guaranteed job and salsey going forward and enough to weather anything like a rodent problem or water heater going bad. But I have nothing left to invest at these lows. I wish I waited from february and march to invest now for things like Boeing which already doubled from last week. Thoughts Garth? I could maybe put 3 to 5 in as well but I am hesitant.

#316 Larry Limelight on 03.27.20 at 3:27 am

” The bold will be rewarded. – Garth”

Garth, what about the whole “meek shall inherit the earth” thang. I heard Geddy Lee sing this on 2112 album so must be true bro’

#317 Howard on 03.27.20 at 3:36 am

#232 Ustabe on 03.26.20 at 8:19 pm

Trudeau likely cost Canadian lives by dragging his feet about closing the border. He has also stated on the record that he admires the Chinese totalitarian government. I apologize if these inconvenient truths bother you.

Leftists like you said Harper could never get elected so I don’t really give much credence to your opinion.

#318 BobC on 03.27.20 at 7:19 am

Something isn’t right.

I don’t know anybody with the coronavirus and I don’t know anybody that knows anybody with the coronavirus. Strange that Hollywood elites, judges, politicians, the Queen and the Pope have come into contact with the virus, yet they have less contact with the public then the rest of us do. How can a deputy prosecutor have it but the rest of his department doesn’t? How can a fireman get it but his fellow firemen that he lives with while at work doesn’t?

This flu season in the U.S. 14,000 have died and 250,000 have been hospitalized yet our hospitals are overwhelmed with coronavirus patients and Trump is killing them because he can’t get enough equipment and face masks fast enough?

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-02-21/flu-season-thats-sickened-26-million-may-be-at-its-peak

Side note: Obama not Trump has caused the shortage of N95 masks. Trump did inherit a mess.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/los-angeles-times-and-bloomberg-news-federal-stockpile-of-n95-masks-was-depleted-under-obama-and-never-restocked

From April 2009 until August 2010 we were hit with the swine flu. (Should we Change the name? Pigs didn’t cause it) 60.8 million came down with it. 274,304 were hospitalized and 12,469 died.
Yet our hospitals are overwhelmed today? Did we shut down the economy then? Most people have already forgotten about it.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

In our worst spot, New York City, 5000 have been hospitalized with coronavirus. They have right now 53,000 hospital beds open and are working to increase it to 140,000 open beds.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/cuomo-closing-all-businesses-keeping-everyone-home-not-best-public-health-strategy

So we’re supposed to self quarantine in our houses, financially destroy the citizens and maybe the country while we hand sew face masks?

Something isn’t right.

#319 Steven Rowlandson on 03.27.20 at 7:22 am

Never under estimate what can happen to nations and people that sin Garth. The punishment can be rather severe.

#320 I believe everything on Television on 03.27.20 at 7:23 am

worlds oldest joke, no punchline-

‘Hey Mr… Wanna buy a brick?’

#321 Felix on 03.27.20 at 8:03 am

Don’t be mistaken by our objections. Unlike irrational, violent and savage canines, felines have very high IQs.

Cats don’t get mad.

We get even.

https://i.imgur.com/K0Hbwuw.jpg

#322 Jacqueline on 03.27.20 at 8:07 am

Garth,
I am a huge fan of yours and read your blog daily, and have learned SO MUCH from you. However, this post ignores two facts.
1. Incomes across Canada have been falling for the last 40+ years. No amount of discipline and restraint can completely compensate for that. The very economy that has fallen depends on people’s spending habits, and thrives on lack of restraint regarding spending on posessions and experiences such as travel that people cannot afford. However, lack of earning power related to basic costs such as housing/rent, food, and utilities has been on a steady descent for 40 years.
2. On this blog (in fact, I recall at least a few times in the last six months) you have stated that having an “emergency fund” is pointless because “it never happens”. You have literally stated that the commonly touted stash of about six months’ worth of savings is pointless because no one ever needs it. That may be used to be the case, b/c if one lost a job they could in short order find some other source of income. However, you, like your readers and most Canadians, never anticipated such an unprecedented event. Someone who is cash strapped now may have been following your advice to keep limited amounts in an emergency fund, in favour of investing that cash. I don’t necessarily blame you for giving that advice or for people following that advice, which made sense at the time. But it is also unfair to overlook that fact and blame people for not being prepared.

Fortunately or unfortunately for me, I work in healthcare. that means I still have a job and an income, in exchange for putting myself at risk. But I’m thankful that I have a source of income, and that my employer has taken steps to protect me as far as reasonably possible while still doing my job.

One correction: I have advised people to open and maintain a personal LOC at a bank, rather than carry an emergency fund of cash yielding nothing. The LOC costs zero to maintain and is there when you need it. But, yes, these are weird and exceptional times. Thank you for your service to us all. – Garth

#323 Jager on 03.27.20 at 8:07 am

Xenophobia building in China…

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmozur/status/1243162904788008962

Is military conflict possible (South China Sea) in the not so distant future?

P.S. Mr Market doesn’t like this endless monetary intervention. Lot’s of back and forth (up/down) to be expected over the coming weeks…

#324 maxx on 03.27.20 at 8:16 am

“They’ll hate you,” she said.

Those who do are manifest GFs.

They’ve dug their own trenches and must now endure the consequences, having been seduced by ultra-low rates and overbuying through fear or greed. Suckered in by CBs and realtards.

So much for government “responsibility”.

No amount of government “rescue” money will change this loser behaviour. It’s simply life support for the mangled macro economy.

For the money-wise, gargantuan opportunity lies ahead, and they will only become richer. The detritus of lousy money management yields some amazing gold nuggets – sometimes bars.

On the plus side, maybe we can scrape some of that short-term buy-to-rent crap off of our collective boots. Permanently.

#325 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.20 at 8:17 am

@#258 Mao
“hypocrites. you make me sick….”
++++

After reading your communist wailings….I felt a bit peckish…..so I had my chef prepare an eight course meal….brought to my dining table by my butler while my personal assistant gave me a pedicure.
After my half finish meal was tossed in the garbage by the assistant cook i decided to retire to the Study and sup on a delicious wine aperitif poured lovingly by my sommelier…..
Even a hard nose like me can get used to luxury living ..let me tell you.

We elites employ many many of you little people whether we want to or not. Some of you should bathe more often.
Show a little more appreciation for your minimum wage existence would you?

#326 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.20 at 8:24 am

barkingdog reduced to BB

Whats next?

bb

or

CC

#327 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.20 at 8:30 am

@#292 one BIG conspiracy

Brilliant!
Should keep the paranoid busy hammering nails in planks over all the doors and windows until this all blows over.

Good job!

#328 Steven Rowlandson on 03.27.20 at 8:47 am

In BC real estate services is an essential service.

Land registration services and real estate agent services.

#329 oh bouy on 03.27.20 at 8:58 am

@#314 Howard on 03.27.20 at 3:36 am
#232 Ustabe on 03.26.20 at 8:19 pm

Trudeau likely cost Canadian lives by dragging his feet about closing the border. He has also stated on the record that he admires the Chinese totalitarian government. I apologize if these inconvenient truths bother you.

Leftists like you said Harper could never get elected so I don’t really give much credence to your opinion.
_________________________

howie are you a 5 year old?
you sure do act like one on here.

#330 Doghouse Dweller on 03.27.20 at 9:03 am

#281 april
Do anyone of you read Martin Armstrong?
————————————————–
He is entertaining for sure and has good knowledge in world affairs and monetary history.
It`s his magic computer program that predicts the future that screams
CHARLATAN in my mind. BNN had Brian Acker of Acker Finley and his magic laptop during the last crash. His clients were wiped out.

#331 akashic record on 03.27.20 at 9:18 am

0.2%

#332 Trojan House on 03.27.20 at 9:24 am

#327 Doghouse Dweller on 03.27.20 at 9:03 am

“BNN had Brian Acker of Acker Finley and his magic laptop during the last crash. His clients were wiped out.”

Except that Armstrong has never been wrong.

#333 Howard on 03.27.20 at 9:24 am

#326 oh bouy on 03.27.20 at 8:58 am

howie are you a 5 year old?
you sure do act like one on here.

——————————

And who are you? I don’t recall noticing you type any insightful comment in all the years you’ve been here. Utterly forgettable, so I think I’ll return to forgetting you.

#334 Basil Fawlty on 03.27.20 at 9:33 am

#162 Trojan Horse
“So I guess this is it. I guess this is the apocalypse. The end of Western civilization. Over a flu bug.”

The Corona Virus is the pin that popped the biggest financial bubble in world history. If it wasn’t the virus, the bubble would have popped sooner than later.

You have come here for a decade to tell us the system will collapse. It will still be functioning fine when we’re both dust. – Garth

#335 Dharma Bum on 03.27.20 at 9:39 am

#75 Yukon Elvis

Then make the responsible saver/investors pay for it. Should get them re-elected for a third term.
——————————————————————–

Start preparing the gallows for the epic public hanging of politicians once the dust settles.

#336 jess on 03.27.20 at 9:49 am

short termism quantity over quality
push and pull :
fake news distrust leads people in Iran to drink methanol as a cure
Associated Press filed this troubling report from Tehran, the Iranian capital where people are drinking toxic methanol in the mistaken belief it will combat the coronavirus.
======
“I’m from the government, and I’m here to help” opposition to welfare policies. “In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem”, said by Ronald Reagan.

============
Spain extended its coronavirus lockdown on Thursday and said it was fighting a “real war” over medical supplies to contain the world’s second-highest virus death toll, turning to China for many critical products, where officials reported fraud and massive price increases.

…hum
And then there is the Ultramontanic Attorney General, Barr. A Harvard white man defending religious freedoms. Accusing secularists of assaulting liberty. His constructing words flow into the brains of the listening lawyers. Does he know who really built that place he speaks from–with hands and sweat. The breakdown in moral order he continues…. whoa does he know his president ? ….
We still admire the way MacDonald tried to get Canadians to co-operate,” wrote historian Ged Martin in a recent piece. “But we don’t like the price that had to be paid, in sleaze and pork, to keep the country working together.”

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/sure-john-a-macdonald-was-was-a-racist-colonizer-and-misogynist-but-so-were-most-canadians-back-then

And of late Mr. Barr’s warning to all the behavioural profiteering . Calling out all the specuvestors and rumour writers promising he’ll hunt them down! A changing voice tone from his earlier fireside chats. Will he arrest the Doctors and the pharmacists in the USA , who are now buying meds to hoard for themselves? Drugs mentioned in a twitter feed from some internet medic that got passed on to the President as he repeats that the “miracle is coming!” It’s a Chinese problem he says to his believers while at the same time asks them for supplies as his people have none. My mind wanders with bewilderment at his power of invincibility and electability.

Can anyone ever imagine President Trump saying:” I am the government and I am here to help.”

more the yes we can types
vs democratic virus hoax salesmen.

toliet paper a symbol for the new “buttcoin”?

#337 Dharma Bum on 03.27.20 at 9:50 am

#122 Andrewski

But once this necessary binge is over, let’s promise ourselves not to go on another one when things get back to normal. Let’s instead dedicate ourselves to living within our means, wiping out our deficits, reducing our debts and saving for the next rainy day. (From the Globe article.)
——————————————————————-

The only way that’s going to happen is to jack the interest rate up to double digits, like back in the good ol’ days!

Spend less. Save more.

#338 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.20 at 9:54 am

NOW it’s getting SERIOUS!

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/vancouver-news/bc-liquor-stores-to-close-on-sundays-due-to-covid-19-2202916

We’ll only be able to buy over taxed booze 6 days a week instead of 7……

The horror

#339 Dolce Vita on 03.27.20 at 9:54 am

Ya know, this pandemic reminded me of George Carlin’s “The Planet is Fine”.

Selected excerpts:

“The planet isn’t going anywhere; we are! We’re going away! Pack your shit, folks! We’re going away and we won’t leave much of a trace either, thank God for that. Maybe a little Styrofoam, maybe. Little Styrofoam. The planet will be here, we’ll be long gone; just another failed mutation; just another closed-end biological mistake; an evolutionary cul-de-sac. The planet will shake us off like a bad case of fleas, a surface nuisance.”

“See, I don’t worry about the little things: bees, trees, whales, snails. I think we’re part of a greater wisdom that we won’t ever understand, a higher order. Call it what you want. You know what I call it? The big electron, the big electron. [Imitates electronic hum] It doesn’t punish, it doesn’t reward, it doesn’t judge at all. It just is and so are we… for a little while.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c

———————————-

My theory:

The Planet wanted a breath of fresh air, gave us COVID-19 to get one.

(Hope he was wrong and me too).

#340 Basil Fawlty on 03.27.20 at 9:58 am

“You have come here for a decade to tell us the system will collapse. It will still be functioning fine when we’re both dust. – Garth”

There will be a system, but not the current one, which collapsed in 2008 and has been held together by trillions in unsutainable bailouts. World debt can not be paid back in todays dollars. We are left with two choices, default or inflate. Neither of which will save the current financial system.

#341 Shake Stain and Dew Drip on 03.27.20 at 9:58 am

This guy has his hat screwed on right.

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-its-time-for-investors-to-start-saying-the-d-word-this-economic-damage-could-be-double-2008

A deep recession and an L shaped recovery a year or more down the road. Yeah, and what he says about people busting out and anarchy, totally believable.

Rosie drives nails through his palms for recreation. – Garth

#342 MF on 03.27.20 at 10:00 am

Woops.

Bank of Canada lowers rates to 0.25%

Woops.

MF

#343 Ronaldo on 03.27.20 at 10:05 am

#310 Not So New Guy

And don’t forget folks. Even during the depression, 25% unemployed meant that 75% were still employed.
——————————————————————
Keep in mind that back then 85% lived on farms. Today it’s the reverse. Not sure but I believe that the 25% was non-farm payroll. They also didn’t have welfare back then but had food stamps. Given the above the situation could get a lot worse than then when 85% pretty much were self sufficient. My mother lived thru those times and said that the only thing was that certain items were rationed like sugar, coffee, etc.

#344 Sail Away on 03.27.20 at 10:09 am

#322 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.20 at 8:17 am
@#258 Mao
“hypocrites. you make me sick….”

———————

After reading your communist wailings….I felt a bit peckish…..so I had my chef prepare an eight course meal….brought to my dining table by my butler while my personal assistant gave me a pedicure.

After my half finish meal was tossed in the garbage by the assistant cook i decided to retire to the Study and sup on a delicious wine aperitif poured lovingly by my sommelier…..
Even a hard nose like me can get used to luxury living ..let me tell you.

We elites employ many many of you little people whether we want to or not. Some of you should bathe more often.
Show a little more appreciation for your minimum wage existence would you?

———————-

Yes! Sounds a bit like my normal day. Tonight, for example, 35 of us are gathering to watch videos of toilet paper fights and bet on the outcome, before enjoying the communal steam room with ice cream.

Then dinner, served by mao and his muttering comrades, before a fine dessert, sharing the marijuana cigarettes, and some light entertainment. Maybe playing the whisper game while watching the proletariats on TV dance our tune.

Interjecting ‘Social Distance’ into the conversation is always good for a laugh.

#345 Dharma Bum on 03.27.20 at 10:16 am

This week came the stunning, unprecedented, knock-the-socks-off news that 3.48 million Americans just applied for jobless benefits. Washington’s overwhelmed. And us? A million Canadians asked for EI benefits in the same period. There are ten times more of them, so do the math. When it comes to financial poochedness, we rule. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Is it too corny to now say that when America sneezes, Canada gets financial COVID-19?

https://rigllc.com/blog/when-america-sneezes-the-world-catches-a-cold/

#346 Sail Away on 03.27.20 at 10:20 am

#295 Claiming overseas income on 03.26.20 at 11:56 pm

I’m self-declaring overseas income and will be hit with a big tax bill this year. Should I sell some MSCI ETFs for a tax loss to offset this year’s tax payment? I hope to reinvest at a lower price after 30 days.

———————–

Sure. Don’t wait any time at all, though, unless you really want to.

Sell to crystallize the loss, then buy another that is not ‘substantially similar’ anytime you want. Rrsearch the official term a bit. I’ve never had an issue.

#347 TurnerNation on 03.27.20 at 10:33 am

Magna Auto parts (MG.TO) reported this last night:

—-Following an extended period of production downtime in February, our operations in China continue to ramp up along with the overall local industry. While business activity continues to increase, it remains below the production levels anticipated earlier this year.—-

#348 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 10:37 am

#280 CC on 03.26.20 at 10:31 pm

You have an awesome life SA, from what you portray. Lots of $. A successful business. A family. Dogs that love you…

————-

Thanks! Guilty as charged…

I do sometimes wonder why I’ve been so blessed in this life. Have I been specially chosen? Questions…

#349 jess on 03.27.20 at 10:38 am

lookback

Bailout Tracker
Tracking Every Dollar and Every Recipient
By Paul Kiel and Dan Nguyen, ProPublica. Published April 15, 2009. Updated March 19, 2020

We’re tracking where taxpayer money has gone in the ongoing bailout of the financial system. Our database accounts for both the broader $700 billion bill and the separate bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Altogether, accounting for both the TARP and the Fannie and Freddie bailout, $634B has gone out the door.

Money has been coming back in two ways: $390B of principal has been repaid, and the Treasury has collected revenue from its investments of $364B.

In total, the government has realized a $121B profit as of March 19, 2020.
https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/

================
data trackers

Tax Abatement Transparency

See our database and more on the GASB-77 rule that requires state and local governments to disclose the cost of economic development tax incentives.
Click here for GASB-77 Resource Center and Tax Break Tracker

https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/

about Good Jobs First Issues Statement on State Bills to “Phase Out Corporate Giveaways”

01/22/2020
Report: Corporate Tax Giveaways Harm State Revenues Needed for Pension Funding

Washington, DC, January 22, 2019 – Public pensions are seriously underfunded in some states, and the situation is not helped by the fact that states continue to give huge tax breaks and other subsidies to corporations. Such subsidies often exceed the amount a state owes to maintain its pension obligations.

03/20/2020
No More Subsidies to Amazon as It Reaps Windfalls from COVID-19 Pandemic!

Good Jobs First, which has for four years been urging governments to stop subsidizing Amazon.com, Inc., today renewed its call in light of the sales windfall the online retailer is reaping from the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead of more tax breaks, Amazon should refund past subsidies and rescind future tax breaks in order to help governments cope.

Read more

https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/news/releases

03/20/2020
No More Subsidies to Amazon as It Reaps Windfalls from COVID-19 Pandemic!

Good Jobs First, which has for four years been urging governments to stop subsidizing Amazon.com, Inc., today renewed its call in light of the sales windfall the online retailer is reaping from the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead of more tax breaks, Amazon should refund past subsidies and rescind future tax breaks in order to help governments cope.

Read more

#350 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 10:42 am

#338 Shake Stain and Dew Drip on 03.27.20 at 9:58 am

Rosie drives nails through his palms for recreation. – Garth

————–

Best. Response. Ever.

#351 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.27.20 at 10:52 am

You guys are hilarious… Sorry to burst your depression bubble, but covid-19 is not going to be the “great reset”… If you really want to be afraid, look up MERS and what it does to your lungs… With a death rate of 30%… Or read about Ebola, with a death rate above 50%…

I bet you never even registered when MERS came around…

Talk about tear-water tea around here…

#352 TurnerNation on 03.27.20 at 10:57 am

Ferrari back to work.

—–
Ferrari to resume production in Maranello and Modena as of 14 April 2020.

Maranello, 27 March 2020 – Ferrari N.V. (“Ferrari” or the “Company”) (NYSE/MTA: RACE) announces today that subject to supply chain continuity it now plans to resume production as of 14 April 2020—-

#353 Doghouse Dweller on 03.27.20 at 10:58 am

#329 Trojan House
Except that Armstrong has never been wrong.
—————————————————
Did he predict the fastest algo driver market crash in history ?
Were you out in time ? Do you have some examples ? I don`t pay for the private blog or the premium ice age/earthquake fortune telling service.

Rosie told us this phony buyback FED con market was on its last leg
in early Febuary for FREE, no subscription fee magic computer pie cycle calculator necessary.
https://youtu.be/MM1IbJk06go

#354 MF on 03.27.20 at 11:06 am

348 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.27

Umm no.

Death rate is only one factor.

What about Transmissibility, incubation period, symptom severity and so on?

This virus will spread to millions, possibly billions, and thats one factor. The economic impact is a much bigger one.

Our economic system was wobbly and based on debt and low rates anyways. It was ripe for popping. The economic impact of the virus is enough to tip it over.

MF

#355 Faron on 03.27.20 at 11:08 am

#347 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 10:42 am

#338 Shake Stain and Dew Drip on 03.27.20 at 9:58 am

Rosie drives nails through his palms for recreation. – Garth

————–

Best. Response. Ever.

————–

I dunno, on Feb 7 he called BS on the market:

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-this-turbocharged-debt-cycle-will-end-miserably-its-just-a-matter-of-when

We were already headed for a major correction or even a bear market and now we have massive unemployment and the dominos starting to fall on the Canadian household debt disaster. That kind of market condition will absorb a lot of rate cuts, stimulus, rent freeze and whatever else you want to throw at it. If you multiply zero by anything you still get zero.

#356 Jager on 03.27.20 at 11:09 am

10yr treasury yield cratering yet again…

DJIA 15-16 may be the bottom…however it could take several years to rebound to recent highs.

The strongest of the weak endure the longest.

#357 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 11:12 am

Here’s a little story:

The Aging Socialite

A middle-aged woman with declining appearance, thickening waist, and failed marriage fails to find satisfaction in her children, pets and extramarital affair, so begins posting on a financial website.

Her opinions there are challenged. Having always achieved success over opponents in the past through social shaming and appeals to authority, she employs these tactics. Shockingly, they don’t work and she is roundly criticized by other posters and the site administrator.

Undeterred and unbowed, she changes her pseudonym numerous times and tries again, not realizing the failure was due to structural content rather than identity.

Eventually, after many weeks of patient reinforcement… [there are a couple of endings]…

#358 akashic record on 03.27.20 at 11:17 am

347 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 10:42 am

#338 Shake Stain and Dew Drip on 03.27.20 at 9:58 am

Rosie drives nails through his palms for recreation. – Garth

————–

Best. Response. Ever.

What’s up with nailing dots between words?

#359 not 1st on 03.27.20 at 11:23 am

This pandemic is raging in 6 of the G7 countries, US, Italy, France, UK, Germany and Canada.

What is it about a system that can print billons when needed to stabilize the markets but still have a shortage of masks and ventilators? Health care is 18% of most nations GDP. Where is the money going?

#360 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 11:30 am

#355 akashic record on 03.27.20 at 11:17 am
347 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 10:42 am
#338 Shake Stain and Dew Drip on 03.27.20 at 9:58 am

Rosie drives nails through his palms for recreation. – Garth

————-

Best. Response. Ever.

————-

What’s up with nailing dots between words?

————-

Good eye. You got it.

#361 fancy_pants on 03.27.20 at 11:40 am

We are much closer to a global economic collapse than many in our western bubble of comfort realize. It will become evident soon enough that money in fact does not grow on trees. Was the reaction (shutdown and huge deficit spending) expected and part of plan to expedite the NWO?

#362 Sail Away on 03.27.20 at 11:46 am

#287 Remind me! on 03.26.20 at 11:20 pm

Never to work for Sail Away and
never hire penny henny

—————–

Aw.

If you worked for me, you’d have a nice check right now and would either be on full EI, or on an hourly contract with option for full EI if there’s not enough work.

In either case and even if you were re-signed to hourly, you would have a full severance check in the bank.

#363 not 1st on 03.27.20 at 11:47 am

Garth, one of my family members said the same thing about small businesses that you said about people. If they cant survive a couple week or month shut down, there is something wrong there too. Same would apply to big biz as well. Carnival and Delta and Marriot don’t have emergency cash or credit lines at the ready? Cant public companies just firesale shares to stay afloat?

We should talk about everyone who is swimming naked this time.

#364 Don Guillermo on 03.27.20 at 11:54 am

#332 Dharma Bum on 03.27.20 at 9:39 am
#75 Yukon Elvis
Then make the responsible saver/investors pay for it. Should get them re-elected for a third term.
——————————————————————–
Start preparing the gallows for the epic public hanging of politicians once the dust settles.

******************************************
I so hope you’re right but I fear you’re not.

#365 Stan Brooks on 03.27.20 at 11:55 am

#348 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.27.20 at 10:52 am
You guys are hilarious… Sorry to burst your depression bubble, but covid-19 is not going to be the “great reset”… If you really want to be afraid, look up MERS and what it does to your lungs… With a death rate of 30%… Or read about Ebola, with a death rate above 50%…

I bet you never even registered when MERS came around…

Talk about tear-water tea around here…

I am glad some still have sense of humour left.
You will need it.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/too-many-people-are-dying-alone-nyc-loses-more-in-3-weeks-to-covid-19-than-to-homicides-in-all-of-2019/2346703/

https://globalnews.ca/news/6700788/coronavirus-covid-19-canada-cases-data/

Loo at the chart – stick/exponential growth.

Are your pants not full yet, boy?

#366 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.20 at 12:01 pm

@#354 Sail Away

When did bored soccer moms get bumped up to aging socialites status?

#367 Don Guillermo on 03.27.20 at 12:03 pm

Barrel of Monkeys now worth more than a barrel of Alberta oil

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bitumen-wcs-wti-oil-1.5511386

CBC and the majority of commenters having a great laugh over this. What a sad pathetic place Canada has become.

#368 Penny Henny on 03.27.20 at 12:11 pm

#341 Sail Away on 03.27.20 at 10:09 am

Yes! Sounds a bit like my normal day. Tonight, for example, 35 of us are gathering to watch videos of toilet paper fights and bet on the outcome, before enjoying the communal steam room with ice cream.
/////////////

Wow that all sounds very flamboyant.
Not that there is anything wrong with that.

#369 Sail Away on 03.27.20 at 12:18 pm

#363 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.20 at 12:01 pm
@#354 Sail Away

When did bored soccer moms get bumped up to aging socialites status?

—————-

It was just a story. Any similarity to actual posters is entirely coincidental. No animals were harmed during its creation. Any actions undertaken by readers, as a result of the story, are to be taken only at the reader’s discretion.

#370 Faron on 03.27.20 at 12:19 pm

“Dead cats rarely last consecutive sessions nor add 20%. Markets are anticipating what we all know will be the reality in six months. – Garth”

Oct 28th – Nov 4th, 2008. 14% jump followed by a 30% plop over subsequent months. Not three big days of gain, but I’d wager that it’s not statistically different than this week, so there’s no basis for that claim. Admittedly, that’s a cherry pick of retrospective data on my part.

The point being that there is zero clarity and noone has any idea what’s coming in ~3-6 months, maybe longer.

Regardless, if you bought at that sub-peak in November of ’08, your money would have doubled in 5 years before dividends. That’s crudely 20% annual capital growth plus dividend cash. And that is very likely to recur.

Of course we know what’s coming. Recovery. Markets are just trying to position for the amount of damage to occur in the meantime, and the period of time until restoration. But the outcome, as stated, is known. – Garth

#371 Herb on 03.27.20 at 12:23 pm

#313 Larry Limelight,

I can solve your theological problem. The meek indeed shall inherit the earth, and the bold and greedy will own everything on it.

#372 Herb on 03.27.20 at 12:31 pm

Penny Henny,

I’ve done crack the code. Sail Away has undertaken to fill the creative vacuum while Smoking Man is away.

#373 yvr_lurker on 03.27.20 at 12:35 pm

Exactly the problem. Centuries of cultural practice of eating anything that moves; no worries for any of us here in the west… please keep your cultural practices going strong… no need to read those complicated Nature publications written by politically motivated scientists who are just fear-mongering…… who the hell can understand those scientific articles anyway talking about particular genes and gene sequences… scientists don’t know shit….

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/wildlife-markets-china-coronavirus-pandemic-1.5510045

just keep rolling… put the economy back up once this is over… and resume the 100 flights a day ASAP….

#374 Chris on 03.27.20 at 12:39 pm

Thanks, Garth, for another excellent post. Just a thought: would it be technically possible for us to ‘respect’ or ‘like’ comments so that hopefully the better, more thoughtful, succinctly-phrased comments move higher and the useless, annoying drivel moves lower? If it means more work for you, then that’s no good, but I wonder if there is some kind of technical fix that would do that for you (and for us!) Thanks again.

#375 akashic record on 03.27.20 at 12:44 pm

Nothing demonstrats better how globalization gutted Western industrial capacity than to see that the largest economy of G7 is unable to ramp up domestic production of a simple product, like ventilator, even at the height of the largest crisis since WW2.

Who will take the responsibility for this?

#376 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.27.20 at 12:46 pm

Ah yes, our resident experts on everything MF and Stan…

I guess we’ll see when it’s all done.. but we know that the R0 of SARS was 2-5, MERS ranged from 0.8-2.4, Ebola 1.5-2.5, H1N1 1.4-1.6, diphtheria 2-4, and Covid-19 is current 1.4-3.9… hell, measles is 12-14.

SARS has a fatality rate of 10%, MERS 30%, Ebola 50%, diphtheria 5-10%, in 2018 140,000 people died of measles..

I’ll let you experts calculate the current death rate of covid-19 in NYC and Canada… And then you can try to justify the current fear with the lack of fear of the other diseases…

#377 JB on 03.27.20 at 12:46 pm

#367 Faron on 03.27.20 at 12:19 pm

“Dead cats rarely last consecutive sessions nor add 20%. Markets are anticipating what we all know will be the reality in six months. – Garth”

Oct 28th – Nov 4th, 2008. 14% jump followed by a 30% plop over subsequent months. Not three big days of gain, but I’d wager that it’s not statistically different than this week, so there’s no basis for that claim. Admittedly, that’s a cherry pick of retrospective data on my part.

The point being that there is zero clarity and noone has any idea what’s coming in ~3-6 months, maybe longer.

Regardless, if you bought at that sub-peak in November of ’08, your money would have doubled in 5 years before dividends. That’s crudely 20% annual capital growth plus dividend cash. And that is very likely to recur.

Of course we know what’s coming. Recovery. Markets are just trying to position for the amount of damage to occur in the meantime, and the period of time until restoration. But the outcome, as stated, is known. – Garth
……………………………………………………………………
Recovery will come. It always does. Patience is hard to imagine when your investments are being sucked into a big black vortex. I have diversified over the years and looked for the slow steady growth instead of the high return risky stuff. Home is 90% paid off and my wife and I have pretty good jobs in a sector that is not pretty damn immune to this crap. Money in the bank enough to run for at least one and half years. Staring to see panic in the streets now. Sadly I have neighbours that are not immune and a niece that just started out in her career. She may be looking at a layoff in the next month. On the other hand a neighbour already is looking at selling now as he is worried. He has a job as a paramedic and is pretty much recession proof. He owns his home and has money in the bank more than I could ever conceive. Now is not the time to sell and run I told him. He will take a bath.

#378 calgary rip off on 03.27.20 at 1:00 pm

“We’re all in this together”. no we are not. Immunity is an individual thing.

1)Outlaw all wet markets. 2)Eliminate dependence on China. 3)Ban trade with any countries practicing unethical behaviour. If the planet survives this Chinese virus, there will be more coronaviruses. When not if.

This mess was also started by peoples choice for unnecessary travel. Thank you to all the idiots.

Whats next is no electricity, no food, no water, heat, and hostile takedowns like the walking dead. Hopefully not.

Perhaps basics like clean water, air and food will be more appreciated. Chinas inability to feed its people exotic meat is not on my priority list and China is responsible for this and most illnesses each year. Repent China.

#379 maxx on 03.27.20 at 1:04 pm

@ #8

Yet another erudite member of the superciliati who thinks we’re superior to Americans.

Went out for a walk this a.m. In just over an hour, about a dozen clueless, inconsiderate ignoramuses made zero attempt to physically distance. Trails were rife with selfish idiots, dead center in the paths, leaving a whole 6 inches for opposing foot traffic – looking you right in the eye and smiling, no less.

Please don’t try to insinuate that we’re somehow better. That places you squarely into the camp you’re attempting to impugn. Millions of Americans on the front lines of this pandemic are toiling like mad without the benefit of any protection. They too are “coming together to help each other”.

Kumbaya, eh wut?

#380 SoggyShorts on 03.27.20 at 1:05 pm

#354 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 11:12 am

Killin it SA, keep em coming.

#381 BS on 03.27.20 at 1:13 pm

#356 not 1st on 03.27.20 at 11:23 am

This pandemic is raging in 6 of the G7 countries, US, Italy, France, UK, Germany and Canada.

What is it about a system that can print billons when needed to stabilize the markets but still have a shortage of masks and ventilators? Health care is 18% of most nations GDP. Where is the money going?

That is what happens when manufacturing is done in a communist dictatorship. China has taken over the mask factories and now controls where the supply goes. I think it is safe to say key manufacturing is coming back to North America or at least to friendlier nations. Just another thing Trump was right about.

#382 Matt on 03.27.20 at 1:19 pm

The fool isn’t the one who lives beyond their means, has no savings, and follows the herd in housing bidding wars. The fool is the one who saves, can go six months with no cash flow, and chooses to live a frugal and independent lifestyle.

There is safety in numbers and bailouts are inevitable. The lesson has been clear for over a decade; savers get punished and, as a collective, the indebted spenders are too big to fail.

#383 BS on 03.27.20 at 1:28 pm

360 not 1st on 03.27.20 at 11:47 am

Garth, one of my family members said the same thing about small businesses that you said about people. If they cant survive a couple week or month shut down, there is something wrong there too. Same would apply to big biz as well. Carnival and Delta and Marriot don’t have emergency cash or credit lines at the ready? Cant public companies just firesale shares to stay afloat?

We should talk about everyone who is swimming naked this time.

I am amazed at how many businesses can’t survive a 1 month shutdown. Overhead and debt are the killers. I think this situation will have businesses everywhere cutting overhead and hopefully better manage debt. Just another reason to have people working at home where possible. I suspect more contract type work.

As far as issuing shares it would dilute the current shares which would tank the share prices when they are already tanking. Nobody would take the new shares. Not the time to be doing that.

#384 Lost...but not leased on 03.27.20 at 1:30 pm

Some how…through all this Pandemic Crisis.. …BC Gov’t has negotiated a settlement with the BC Teachers Union.

Pathetic..

#385 Graven on 03.27.20 at 1:30 pm

If nothing else, it will be most fitting that the steamship “Canadian Economy” sinks with it’s red tide elected, covid infected, most inept captain at the helm.

#386 Spectacle on 03.27.20 at 1:41 pm

#319 Jacqueline on 03.27.20 at 8:07 am
Garth,
I am a huge fan of yours and read your blog daily, and have learned SO MUCH from you. However,…..

Fortunately or unfortunately for me, I work in healthcare. that means I still have a job and an income, in exchange for putting myself at risk. But I’m thankful that I have a source of income, and that my employer has taken steps to protect me as far as reasonably possible while still doing my job.

One correction: I have advised people to open and maintain a personal LOC at a bank, rather than carry an emergency fund of cash yielding nothing. The LOC costs zero to maintain and is there when you need it. But, yes, these are weird and exceptional times. Thank you for your service to us all. – Garth
————————- ; ) ——————–
And Thank You Garth for all of your service as well.

Notes of interest:
– Dyson to begin design/making battery operated, bedside CoVent ventilators. UK ordered 1000.
– Tesla etc to begin delivery of Millions of protective masks.
– Asia, Magan auto and Ferrari etc to begin ramping up production of old industries as before ( hence why masks so very important to stop transmission to new hosts).
– staff in Italy are clapping as they chair out survivors, yay.

Cheers.

#387 Jager on 03.27.20 at 1:46 pm

A “Brave New World” is upon us. Lol!

https://mobile.twitter.com/Paris__G/status/1242584266585899008

#388 MDQ on 03.27.20 at 1:47 pm

Garth,

Can you write about how screw we are? Looking at our government spending, I don’t see any future.

There are no consequences in this society today, no money no problem.

They are going to tax us to death, and why not?
Some folks are going to make more $ now while simply having to watch Netflix!!

Am I the only one that thinks that this is unreal??

#389 In YYC on 03.27.20 at 1:47 pm

#379 Matt, I totally agree!! What a pathetic world we live in. I guess you and I are both suckers.

#390 Mithan on 03.27.20 at 1:51 pm

You are 100% correct Garth. If homes were not where they are, and Canadians didn’t have huge mortgages, we would be far better off right now.

Nobody cares though, until now. Then it’s blame everyone else.

People should remember though, nobody forced you to buy a house.

#391 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 1:57 pm

Let me weigh in from the corporate side.

A number of posters have commented that corporations should be able to withstand a downturn without cutting jobs.

This is a direct input/output formula. If less water comes into one side of a dam, less spills out the other. Anything else violates the balance. All efficient companies will immediately begin trimming when work falls off. Direct energy balance.

Often there is indeed cash stockpiled. The decision is whether to use that stockpile to keep unproductive employees on the payroll, or to keep the cash stockpiled to ensure the company can restart without debt. My decision is to circle the wagon and prepare for restart.

#392 ERIC SIGOUIN on 03.27.20 at 2:00 pm

Hey Garth,

Huge fan….

I wonder if Mr. Socks still thinks that ” we business owners are still tax cheats?”
Not too long ago we were attack by the Feds for saving too much money, since heck we did not have the benefits of EI, pension, etc…. No we were just saving for a bad day!
And here we are, the Feds will rely on us within the next months to restart the economy and hire new individuals…..

TAX CHEAT MY ASS! I was just preparing myself, my family and my business, for today!!1

#393 maxx on 03.27.20 at 2:01 pm

@ #14

Live animal markets are indeed not innocuous, especially when it comes to the way “raccoon dogs” are treated in China. Check it out.

#394 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 2:02 pm

#376 maxx on 03.27.20 at 1:04 pm

Went out for a walk this a.m. In just over an hour, about a dozen clueless, inconsiderate ignoramuses made zero attempt to physically distance.

————–

Geez, dude. I’m not insulting you for climbing up the wisteria wall as I approached, whistling jauntily.

#395 Mattl on 03.27.20 at 2:08 pm

#379 Matt on 03.27.20 at 1:19 pm
The fool isn’t the one who lives beyond their means, has no savings, and follows the herd in housing bidding wars. The fool is the one who saves, can go six months with no cash flow, and chooses to live a frugal and independent lifestyle.

There is safety in numbers and bailouts are inevitable. The lesson has been clear for over a decade; savers get punished and, as a collective, the indebted spenders are too big to fail.
————————————————————

I see this sentiment here a lot, and I’m not sure I understand the issue. If by saving, you mean loads of cash in a low interest savings account, then I agree.

But if by saving you mean you have avoided expensive RE and are piling money into markets, then you should have made a bucketload the past 12 years.

Folks with cash / liquid investments are about to get their pay day. So stop whining about RE prices and bailouts, if you have mega cash on hand get ready to deploy it. If you miss this, don’t whine to us in 10 years about all the opportunities you missed out on. This is your moment to shine savers, don’t miss it.

Also, the people being bailed out are not just homeowners, the benefits are going to mostly flow to low income, where renters are over represented. I don’t get a child care cheque, my mostly stay at home wife will not get that sweet 2K a month EI, and we don’t qualify for mortgage deferral, which just pushes the debt out anyways. Literally nothing in it for me, or anyone I run with.

#396 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.27.20 at 2:09 pm

@#385 MDQ
“Can you write about how screw we are? Looking at our government spending, I don’t see any future.”
++++

Ummmm.

Reading and comprehension a bit of a struggle?

That’s all Garth has been saying for ages and , particularly, this past week.

Canadian Govt expected to run a $115 BILLION dollar deficit “budget” NEXT YEAR

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-pbo-report-1.5512062

We wont even talk about this years financial debacle.

#397 jess on 03.27.20 at 2:09 pm

33% /day exponential growth
LISTEN TO BILL GATES Bill Gates: State-by-state shutdown won’t work
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation co-founder Bill Gates says that the US should shutdown the entire country for a short period of time to control the spread of the coronavirus and predicts that the number of cases will peak in late April.

even if 100 cases

#398 who knows! on 03.27.20 at 2:30 pm

About the photo: After being released by his owner from a burning structure, the dog went back in to rescue his buddy. A kitten.

Is that Renter saving the landlord?

#399 Tom Mott on 03.27.20 at 2:35 pm

Proctor and Gamble makers of Pampers seems like the stock to buy as a way of preparing for Boomers 2.0 early 2021. I mean if half the world is quarantined for who knows how long it will surely lead to a tsunami of babies.

#400 Concessionman on 03.27.20 at 2:45 pm

That’s so depressing I’m going to go take my Viper for a drive.

#401 not 1st on 03.27.20 at 2:56 pm

Pfizer reports safety data of azithromycin in Covid-19 trial

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/pfizer-data-azithromycin-covid-19-trial/

#402 Overheardyou on 03.27.20 at 2:59 pm

Thank you Mr.Garth, for speaking the hard truth. There are many that love your facts and logic, including myself.

#403 Stoner on 03.27.20 at 3:01 pm

From 2000 onwards, United States (needless to say Canada) has been in decline. Irrespective of the party in power, 9/11, Housing crash, GFC and now Covid. Irrespective of where the virus originated, the contrast between US and China is very clear. One country dealt with a completely new challenge by controlling the spreading and building a new hospital in weeks. Another country despite getting a two month headstart couldn’t even get tests, masks and preparation of its people done, leave aside ventilators and masks. Shame!

#404 Attrition on 03.27.20 at 3:03 pm

Very soon, there are going to be warehouses overflowing with N95 masks, hazmat overalls, sanitizer and ventilators.

“The report says B.C.’s trajectory has changed from a 24 per cent average daily increase to 12 per cent, driven by physical distancing measures and restriction to travel.”

Or maybe warming weather, that fact the BC’s population density is 4.8 per square km, under testing or the time value of viruses. But gov will take credit.

Oh well.

Never before have so many, been so fooled, by so few. And never before have the financial consequences been so grave for so many.

Trillions with a T.

“Poof!”

And for what?

#405 jess on 03.27.20 at 3:06 pm

What happens when your police force gets sick -does military get called in?
=========================
Gates also said it’s problematic that some parts of the U.S. are self-isolating while others are not, noting that while quarantining is “very tough on people” and “disastrous for the economy,” the “sooner you do it in a tough way, the sooner you can undo it and go back to normal.”
Gates also said it’s problematic that some parts of the U.S. are self-isolating while others are not, noting that while quarantining is “very tough on people” and “disastrous for the economy,” the “sooner you do it in a tough way, the sooner you can undo it and go back to normal.”

“It’s very irresponsible for someone to suggest we can have the best of both worlds,” Gates said, a seeming response to President Trump’s push to restart the economy. “What we need now is the extreme shutdown so that, in 6 to 10 weeks, if things go well, then you can start opening back up.”

bill gates says state isolation will not work
Bill Gates on Coronavirus: “We Need to Shut Down”
Diana Bruk
2 days ago
Stocks fall sharply after a massive 3-day rally
Cheesecake Factory furloughs 41,000 workers amid coronavirus

Last week, a prophetic 2015 TED Talk from Bill Gates on the threat of a pandemic went viral for essentially predicting the COVID-19 outbreak. On Tuesday, Gates talked about coronavirus directly in a new live, hour-long online talk with the head of TED, Chris Anderson, in which he addressed many of the public’s questions and concerns about the novel virus, the economy, the healthcare system, and the lockdown.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/bill-gates-on-coronavirus-we-need-to-shut-down/ar-BB11EDci

#406 Lost...but not leased on 03.27.20 at 3:11 pm

Notes of interest:
– Dyson to begin design/making battery operated, bedside CoVent ventilators. UK ordered 1000.
– Tesla etc to begin delivery of Millions of protective masks.
– Asia, Magan auto and Ferrari etc to begin ramping up production of old industries as before ( hence why masks so very important to stop transmission to new hosts).
– staff in Italy are clapping as they chair out survivors, yay.

Cheers.
====================================
More Fear Porn:
When this bogus fear subsides

(which…IMHO will be soon as the sheeple public wakes from its slumber and..at minimum, will say”WE’ll risk it…time to get back to work” !!!!)..

…..we will have warehouses full of surplus medical equipment. FYI: WW2 contracts still had gas masks being produced in Britain till late 1960’s.

#407 CITIZEN on 03.27.20 at 3:40 pm

Garth,

I have to let you know that in all the years I have read your blog, today’s was the best.

Thank you for sharing your wisdom and advice all these years, I hope more will take your advice.

Praying for a vaccine.

#408 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 3:41 pm

#371 Chris on 03.27.20 at 12:39 pm

Thanks, Garth, for another excellent post. Just a thought: would it be technically possible for us to ‘respect’ or ‘like’ comments so that hopefully the better, more thoughtful, succinctly-phrased comments move higher and the useless, annoying drivel moves lower? If it means more work for you, then that’s no good, but I wonder if there is some kind of technical fix that would do that for you (and for us!) Thanks again.

———————-

Downvote

#409 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 5:32 pm

#190 CC on 03.26.20 at 6:43 pm

“Helpful reminders from your forum host, Garth Turner:
Abusive, obscene or disrespectful commenters will not be published and are subject to banning from this forum”
lol…yeah right. Garth, can you at least update your “helpful reminders”?

———————-

Downvote

#410 Sail away on 03.27.20 at 5:33 pm

#248 BB on 03.26.20 at 8:56 pm
@#234 re: “Why don’t you limit yourself to 2 posts a day. ”
SA can’t. He has a personality disorder. It is up to our blog host do to control the commenting.

——————–

Downvote

#411 Sail Away on 03.27.20 at 5:34 pm

#267 BB on 03.26.20 at 9:38 pm

” I happen to greatly enjoy SA’s wit and attitude.”
Birds of a feather…
SA’s not witty, he’s sick.

——————

Downvote

#412 Doug in London on 03.27.20 at 10:58 pm

@Stoner, post #400:
What, are you suggesting that Donald Trump isn’t going to fix all that’s wrong and make America great again?

#413 Peon on 03.28.20 at 8:10 am

Remember when we all laughed at the preppers?

He who laughs last laughs longest…

There was, and is, no reason to ‘prep’ for the current pandemic. Hoarders are social misfits, irresponsible and selfish. – Garth

#414 Matthew Salkeld on 03.28.20 at 9:53 am

Nunavut is the only place in the world without a case of covid.

And it has the highest suicide rate in the world, by a factor of 10 or 100 times due to lack of opportunity for young men. That could be about to get a lot worse.

In other words covid is a red herring.

#415 Matthew Salkeld on 03.28.20 at 9:58 am

I never thought I would have to day Donald Trump is right but this is more a pandemic of Fake News.

The pandemic is more one of irrational fear and inaccurate reporting. Or just plain lying.