Are we toast?

The Catch-22 is simple. To stop the virus, stay home. To kill the economy, bankrupt employers, lose your job, run out of money and go nuts with stress, stay home.

‘Enough is enough’, T2 said Monday. The next step is a form of martial law. Got that on Sunday in NS when the province hardened its border (anyone crossing has to quarantine for two weeks), shut all parks, trails, neighbourhood playgrounds and said it would send tow trucks to haul off the cars of people recreating. “It will be a long walk home,” the premier said. Ontario and Quebec join tomorrow night.

Virus, 1. Freedom, 0.

Most people support the measures, polls and social media show. And while the bulk of us won’t get the bug, and almost all of the afflicted will recover, the economic damage piles up by the hour.

First, the bad news.

The Chateau Laurier, Ottawa’s hotel castle, is closing. Air Transat is on life support. Derek, who’s worked for Air Canada for 32 years, got his layoff notice as we talked on the phone this morning. Five hundred thousand people applied for EI last week. That was a record. In the States on Thursday it’s expected between two and five million jobless claims will be reported. The all-time weekly record previously (in 1982) was in 695,000.

Canadian confidence, says pollster Nik Nanos, just took the biggest drop on record. Over 55% of people think things will be worse in six months than now. The oilpatch is a disaster with crude trying to stay above $20. Bay Street has shed 36%. Showings in Toronto plunged as never before last week. The number of Canadians who believe housing prices will increase has crumbled along with them. Two major banks just forecast a contraction of between 10% and 24% in the second quarter. Way more than in 2008. A US Fed governor foresees the jobless rate at 30%, or ten times what it was weeks ago. The Dow is down 35%. It was off 56% in 2008. The last four weeks has seen the steepest decline since, gulp, 1931.

Well, there ya go. Let’s not sugar-coat anything. And you can stop holding your breath (or whatever else you may be grasping at the moment).

There is good news.

But before we go there, let’s be clear about something. This is not an empathy blog. It’s not an N95 analysis site. No medical expertise. No vaxxing comments. We don’t know squat about Covid-19. People get sick. They die. All the time. Especially old snorts like me (strangely enough). The only virus comment is this: there are now 360,669 cases globally, of which 244,500 are active. Of those 95% are mild and 5% serious. The mortality rate globally is 4.29%. So to a financial guy that looks like 96% of people survive an illness which causes mild symptoms in 95% of victims. Yet 100% of the economy is being decimated. And now we can’t walk in the damn park.

Okay, right, the good news. Almost forgot.

First, governments and bankers are going nuts trying to mitigate this. They have only started. There is absolutely no fiscal or monetary discipline at play here. Society will be awash in liquidity, complete with unprecedented corporate bailouts and social support payments. Remember that the US president is up for election and our guy leads a minority government. Expect no brakes.

Second, pent-up demand will be stunning. That house, haircut, new car, spring outfit, Harley, garden tractor, puppy, kitchen reno or vacation that you’ve lusted for will soon be available. The spending will be epic, despite job losses.

Third, pandemics pass. So do oil wars. You know this. We all know it.

Finally, we are nearing capitulation. Just read the comments on this blog over the last few days. The number of people forecasting millions of bodies and years of 1930s-style depression is stunning. The bottom comes when most folks shed hope. It seems we’re not far off.

But, what do you think? Will this pass, or are we toast?

Take the survey. Be brave. Or not.

Results tomorrow.


 

Sorry, but this form is no longer accepting submissions. We have received our final total of 5,000 responses. RESULTS WILL BE PUBLISHED ON TUESDAY MARCH 24.

 

391 comments ↓

#1 The Wet One on 03.23.20 at 3:41 pm

“And while the bulk of us won’t get the bug”

Garth,

How do you know this?

Do you have a cite for this or are you just pulling it out of your behind?

Do tell.

Thanks.

#2 georgist on 03.23.20 at 3:45 pm

> the bulk of us won’t get the bug,

Only if there are restrictions, if we just open up again 80% will

> Yet 100% of the economy is being decimated

so 10% off, for 5% death rate and many very ill. Sounds about right.

#3 FXBDM on 03.23.20 at 3:49 pm

No Quebec in the survey choices.

Yikes. Fixing now. – Garth

#4 Larry Laffer on 03.23.20 at 3:51 pm

Funny… Quebec isn’t in Canada? (Not available in the drop-down list)

#5 Ejy on 03.23.20 at 3:52 pm

Garth, What do you think will happen to house prices in the next 6-12 months?

#6 T on 03.23.20 at 3:53 pm

Garth, I respect you are a numbers guy, I am as well. Your numbers are accurate to date, there is no debating them.

However the unquantifiable is the fear of the unknown. With this brings a variable no one knows how to calculate.

#7 Riley Forge on 03.23.20 at 3:53 pm

There alot of bright people in the world saying this thing lasts 1 to 2 years ……I hate to believe it but I think they might be right. I think the market crashes and stays that way for at least a year.

#8 RainCityRyan on 03.23.20 at 3:53 pm

hey garth! what’s going on with the survey? no option for buying on margin?

Us cowboys are under represented it appears.

#9 Emile on 03.23.20 at 3:54 pm

I for one look forward to the recovery, and the dividends my etfs are paying out April 2 to reinvest.

#10 Montreal reader on 03.23.20 at 3:54 pm

Hi Garth, Quebec is not on your list of provinces. Did we seperate already or is it because there is only 3-4 of us reading your blog?

Now fixed. Relax. On t’aime. – Garth

#11 mike from mtl on 03.23.20 at 3:55 pm

#3 Larry Laffer on 03.23.20 at 3:51 pm
Funny… Quebec isn’t in Canada? (Not available in the drop-down list)
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Hehe you’re right, intentional or simple mistake??

#12 Cdn War Bonds on 03.23.20 at 3:55 pm

Buy a house! Do your part to help the Canadian economy!

Get rich doing it, houses always go up!

#13 Blog Bunny on 03.23.20 at 3:56 pm

To help the economy, keep buying online. Kudos to all truckers out there keeping the shelves in grocery stores full. I have 3 months of food supplies for the rabbits and 12 months of supplies for the dogs. Humans ? Maybe a week or so.

#14 Wkg on 03.23.20 at 3:57 pm

I simply cannot listen to one more of the perfectly scripted and rehearsed comments from the bobble head this country calls a prime minister. Mysoginist, racist, and limited cognitive means. Put Friedland in, she is still a liberal, but at least she doesn’t sound like a robot

#15 Keen Reader on 03.23.20 at 3:57 pm

Should have waited instead of picking Québec as outside of Canada! Wishful thinking, maybe???

Cheers

#16 Retro Marxist on 03.23.20 at 4:02 pm

Dr. Gurjit Bajwa claims that there are way more coronavirus cases that what the media is telling you. No, he isn’t an Alex Jones nut—He’s a medical doctor!

https://www.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/fng9h3/toronto_emergency_physician_makes_a_plea/

#17 Jay Currie on 03.23.20 at 4:05 pm

It is taking a while for the Cdn and US gov’ts to get their ducks lined up. But, very shortly, a lot of money is going to head towards individuals and families to offset CV effects.

The current social distance/stay home/lockdown will go some way towards slowing transmission.

The key piece is treatment. Right now drugs are being tested to control the virus and shorten the duration of the illness. If they work, and they have shown promise, CV becomes treatable and, perhaps, preventable. The game changes completely.

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.20 at 4:05 pm

I went to Home Depot today.
Half Hour line up to get in for 2 minutes of shopping….Social Distancing….. 50 people in the store at one time Max…..pain in the azz.

#19 Igor on 03.23.20 at 4:07 pm

All these measures by government look more or less adequate in a context of a virus. But if you take it out and look at situation forgetting about the virus, as if it was a regular day, you would be stunned. Such tricks would not be imaginable in a free country. Personally I am surprised and shocked by how easy it is to manipulate masses and how easily people give up their rights and freedoms.

Garth, if this virus did not exist, it should have been invented by those who can. It is so easy to take all, and give back some afterwards. And everyone will be happy! This is a top opportunity to re-allocate assets, change spheres of influence and adjust social systems. With everyone agreeing voluntarily without even an attempt of critical thinking! Unbelievable.

#20 John on 03.23.20 at 4:07 pm

Hi Garth, thanks for your post as always. As I detect reason for cautious optimism in your recent blog post, I’d be curious to hear your take on Preferreds. I’ve continued to hold an ETF but it’s been grueling seeing the markets tank. Meanwhile, I know you have traditionally championed these securities in the past. Latest take?

#21 Lisa on 03.23.20 at 4:07 pm

Just a reminder to people that this is for the vast majority of people a relatively mind illness (flu like) if you are healthy. The plan is for people to get it, just not in huge large numbers that would overwhelm the health care system. So we should be hearing of people getting it every week (and not having a panic attack) as the more people who get it, true herd immunity will become established which will protect the vulnerable (and be able to restart the economy). You want someone who has had it taking care of the vulnerable populations as there is no way possible for that person to then give it to the immune compromised, thus offering them true protection.

#22 Peter on 03.23.20 at 4:08 pm

FYI, the influenza pandemic in WW1, went around the world three times, over a 2-3 year period, catching people off guard thinking the worst was over as the virus came and went. The good news is our medical and technical advances will most certainly discover a vaccine within a year…maybe sooner!

#23 Rico on 03.23.20 at 4:12 pm

US deaths are increasing at 1.3x per day.
Unless something changes they will hit 1M dead by mid May.
Their current strategy is “we can’t contain it so we will focus on treatment”.
This will most likely thing result in the death rate increasing once they run out of nurses, ventilators, and beds.
But hey, let’s not let the stock market go down.

#24 Last Gasp on 03.23.20 at 4:13 pm

EVERYTHING IS CYCLICAL. The spiral calendar is relentless. Our last global depression was in the 1930’s. A hundred years later we were long overdue for a financial reset, or a
..reversion to the mean, at minimum.
.
Well lets just keep it biblical ..
We are entering an economic jubilee. If you have a moral population operating on virtue it is a good time to take your nationsl rest. If your society is an immoral vices … you will have a catastrophic one. Which one do you think were gonna get? It would not be the first time that a pox set of the party. This one methinks will be the devil’s jubilee.

#25 Friedman’s Ghost on 03.23.20 at 4:16 pm

Never in the history of the markets, has indices dropped 35% and not proven to be a great time to put capital to work.

And those comparing the events of today to 1929 are greatly misinformed.

I must state, however, that this is a job for CB’s more than Government and we can only hope it’s a cash injection into the populace and not into Government backed programs. The helicopter doors must come open!

#26 WannableValueInvestor on 03.23.20 at 4:17 pm

I think everyone is extrapolating the worst aspects of this issue, everybody is so bearish it’s crazy and it’s hard to buy in when everything is red on my screen everyday, however I haven’t sold and only have sold to buy other blue chip companies that I think would be better.

I’ve been a avid reader for the last 4 years and although I don’t agree with everything Garth says, he does provide very useful information to the public on this blog.

People are talking about the next great depression and how the world is going to end and everyone is going to die from this virus. I think those comments are completely ridiculous, scientists around the world right now are working a vaccine, regardless of our idiot political leaders and these are war time measures, we could see a vaccine or treatment before long. I have optimism for humanity, this is not the worst thing that has happened in human history yet.

And if you really think the world is going to end and we are going into great depression, I am ready to stand at the TSX and buy every blue chip canadian company for 1$/share or give you canned food/gold/guns/etc. for those shares.

#27 R on 03.23.20 at 4:18 pm

I think there is a good chance Pres. tRump will use the virus catastrophe as a personal opportunity. Right now, he is always the center of attention. Every night, he is on the TV, trying to sound presidential, but at least he is front and center. As long as this virus catastrophe is in play, tRump will be front and center. A pure addictive narcotic for a narcissistic psychopath. In the spirit that the cure is worse than the disease, that quarantine to cure the virus will result in economic damage that will be too great, start looking for signs tRump will start loosening the efforts to contain the virus spread. Start looking for signs tRump is dissatisfied with Dr Fauci and either sideline or remove him because he is interfering with tRumps efforts to allow the virus to continue. From tRumps point of view, medical mayhem brings chaos, and chaos is the justification for his nightly TV appearances. We do not hear from the Democrats, or the elections anymore. If things got bad enough, tRump will justify the November elections can not continue, and he will remain in power for the good of society (The last thing he wants is a fair election). So I am going to look for evidence tRump will use this crisis for his personal benefit, to remain in power, because the last things he wants is to have appear before the courts, charged with corruption, as just an ordinary civilian.

#28 conan on 03.23.20 at 4:20 pm

We need to hunker down for 2 -4 weeks……. This will be expensive, but it is the cost of doing business, and that business is everyone.

#29 Ustabe on 03.23.20 at 4:22 pm

Well, now I actually know someone who, due to workplace circumstance, had to be “tested” for covid.

Apparently it is a large, medical grade Q tip. They go in through your nose and right up into the far back of your sinuses.

Eye watering, knee buckling and intrusive pain…for a second or two.

His last words of advice to me: If I have to get the test make certain my bladder is empty, it might just involuntarily vacate…that is how sharp he described the pain/discomfort.

#30 Rob on 03.23.20 at 4:22 pm

I’d be extremely curious to know how Warren Buffet is doing these days (as the rich get “eventually” richer and the poor get the virus). Check this out:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/22/3-stocks-warren-buffett-is-probably-buying-during.aspx

#31 Flamed out in Kitchener on 03.23.20 at 4:22 pm

Picked up the puppy’s food last week … 6 months worth. She was starting to worry about her kibble fund with all the panicky news reports.

Let’s do what’s required to get through this together, and believe in the resilient great companies in Canada that are begging to be bought (FTS, FCR.UN, BAM.A, ENB, RBC, REI.UN, etc.) at great prices. Not trying to be glib about our situation, just building for the future.

Yes, there will be suffering and heartache from this virus, and we will lose loved ones and friends. But let’s not give up on Canada and Canadians resolve. We will shine again …

Now I have to have a heart to heart with the puppy … The CBC is starting to scare her …

#32 paulo on 03.23.20 at 4:23 pm

Well we shall get through this virus although the cure might be worse than the disease

on a funny note a friend just closed on a condo in Toronto big tall building with no opening windows………

couldn’t help but note that it looked like a Vertical Cruise ship to me !

#33 Leftover on 03.23.20 at 4:24 pm

As far as pent-up demand goes, regarding housing, I think pent-up supply might be a bigger problem.

Big job losses, collapsing oil prices and a crushed stock market make people sell their houses, usually because they have to.

#34 Paddy on 03.23.20 at 4:24 pm

Love the survey Garth. More in the future pretty please…then post the results.

#35 BC_Doc on 03.23.20 at 4:25 pm

This crisis is worse than 2008-09 (markets down 55% peak to trough) but better than 1929 (-85% peak to trough). My educated guess is 60-65% off the top is where the bottom will come in. Recovery to peak numbers will take longer than the 12-18 month survey option.

Re: “while the bulk of us won’t get the bug….”, I’m a health care worker Garth. Actually, most of is will contract CV-19. Plan on it— it’s a contagious little bugger. On the plus side, 80% of us will only have mild-moderate symptoms. The other 20% are the problem.

#36 Yukon Elvis on 03.23.20 at 4:26 pm

A lot of big money has departed Canada. Kinder Morgan, Conoco Phillips, Royal Dutch Shell, Marathon Oil, Devon Energy, Equinor ASA, Warren Buffet, Teck, and many others. World class players. Lack of confidence. Can’t build a pipeline. Can’t and won’t remove protestors from rail blockades. Over regulated and endless approval/review process. Can they establish and grow a business here? They gave up. Better off to invest where governments are business/capital friendly.
And that was all BEFORE “the virus formerly known as Wuhan” afflicted us. Gonna be some hard days ahead.

#37 toronto on 03.23.20 at 4:28 pm

In Italy, death rate per case is closer to 10%. An example of what happens if we don’t take it seriously.

#38 BlorgDorg on 03.23.20 at 4:29 pm

The reason we are implementing a form of martial law is because not enough people are taking the pandemic seriously and following the directive to implement social distancing.

The reason there is a directive to implement social distancing is because it’s the best tool we have to get the pandemic under control and reduce both the mortal and economic damage.

But it only works if everyone does it.

Here’s a couple of useful animations:

https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01.gif

https://i.imgur.com/adhdxYM.gifv

If you don’t like having the parks and borders shut, STAY HOME. The sooner you stay home, the shorter you’ll have to do it. How hard is that for so many to comprehend?

#39 Felix on 03.23.20 at 4:30 pm

“That house, haircut, new car, spring outfit, Harley, garden tractor, puppy, kitchen reno or vacation that you’ve lusted for will soon be available. The spending will be epic, despite job losses.”

Spending on puppies will be a sure sign of a dead cat bounce.

(Only I can use that term without being racist, btw)

But spending on kittens means glory days are surely ahead.

Don’t be stupid people. Spend smart money on smart purchases.

Meow :)

#40 Who Knows? on 03.23.20 at 4:30 pm

Repricing of risk coming down the pike.

Finance has to some down from 30+ percent of the economy to where it should be, 10 – 15 %. This is the end of the financial management industry as we know it.

#41 Paul on 03.23.20 at 4:32 pm

Housing, the latest house I sold had the appraiser in today. In and out In Three minutes spoke outside he said it was the last appraisal he was doing till this is over. How will the banks approve mortgages?

#42 Fred on 03.23.20 at 4:33 pm

How long will this recovery take?

……….

Garth add a new box

3 years. way worse than 2008

#43 Lost...but not leased on 03.23.20 at 4:36 pm

Spouse works for THE largest private insurer for health etc benefits.

BC office is shutting down due to this bogus pandemic.

#44 Reynolds752 on 03.23.20 at 4:37 pm

I might take some issue with our esteemed Mr. Turner on the statement “And while the bulk of us won’t get the bug,”. If absolutely nothing is done, everyone will be infected with this virus. Many will have very little symtomatology and most will survive. A not insignificant 4-7% will perish. The ongoing needs of health care will be catastrophic and overwhelming, at least in the short term.

I would again refer readers to this post from today’s New York Times: https://nyti.ms/3dkfoCc

The cures and resultant outcomes are harsh no matter how this is done. Would you prefer a short, sharp dose of pain or an agonizingly prolonged course? My vote is for the short plan. Keep as many of us as we can in isolation and there is a very good chance this virus will succumb. If, in the interim, vaccines and anti-viral agents can be developed, all the better. This may take longer than we would suspect. I realize that there will be much economic dislocation if this course is adopted. The key and hope is short term. I suspect that the damage will be much more severe if we do as we are doing taking piecemeal approaches at abatement. It is too little and it is too late at this point in time. The genie is long out of the bottle on this one.

I say this as a semi-retired anesthesiologist who has looked after many critically ill patients. I am in constant contact with my old partners in my practice who are truly in the front lines of this. They are at very high risk of infection given what they do in spite of precautions. The picture that they are seeing is not bright as it stands at present.

#45 PastThePeak on 03.23.20 at 4:38 pm

I am not panicked at all. I am currently deploying some cash reserves into equity purchases now (and have done so over the last week, a little at a time). I believe the economy and markets will recover, but it will take some time, and some real problems will be badly exacerbated along the way (debt & money supply).

But I don’t think this is “just the flu bro”. The actual fatality rate for those who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 (so a recorded stat), with an outcome (recovered or dead) is currently sitting at **14%**. You can’t take the deaths and use the total cases as denominator, as some cases (most) do not yet have an outcome. Pretty simple logic, which seems to evade most.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Sure, of those who have tested positive, there could be an equal number (or more) that were never tested & had mild symptoms and classified as recovered. That would drop the fatality rate to 7%. Could it be lower still – sure. All guess work though. Too early to tell, until more are tested.

That 14% (official outcome), or 4-7% (guess) fatality rate is WITH developed world advanced medical care, and countries doing various forms of quarantine and distancing.

Think back to the single biggest human pandemic in recorded history – Spanish Flu (plague more deadly, but fewer humans on earth). Estimated in the end to have a CFR of 2%, killing between 15-50M. And that was before any advanced health care (antibiotics for secondary bacterial infections, antivirals, ventilators…blah blah blah).

If COVID-19 were to spread throughout the population without the advanced healthcare we do have, and attempts to slow it down with quarantine, it would decimate the population, with hundreds of millions dead.

Sorry – not seasonal flu.

But I am optimistic that the distancing/quarantine will slow it down to manageable levels, treatments will be found, and an eventual vaccine. Tough times economically though – especially with such an over leveraged economy and goosed up stock market as the entry point.

#46 Peak Fear on 03.23.20 at 4:40 pm

We haven’t reached peak fear yet, getting close, but not there yet, still too many people buying stocks and etfs. Too many people still have hope. It will be a while until all hope is lost. When no one is talking about buying into the market, that will be the time to buy, we aren’t quite there yet.

#47 Dolce Vita on 03.23.20 at 4:47 pm

PASS.

…and not the way Canada is going about it now.

After a vaccine is found. Even then, estimates are months after to deliver it to populations.

————————————————-

“To stop the virus, stay home.”

SO TRUE.

————————————————-

Why S. Korea did OK. Italy NOT at all:

Lockdown after 1st case found, next day?

S. Korea ☑ (Region)
Italy ☑ (Region, later countrywide)

——————

Mass testing right away?

S. Korea ☑ (Region)
Italy ☒ Later, result:

TOO LATE (275,468 test to date).

Province of AB grandiose claims of testing yet has no comprehensive site to verify those claims, as for example the Americans and their CDC (scroll to table):

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html

————————————————-

So Canada, how do you think it’s going to go for you in the next few weeks?

Lockdown, Nationwide ☒
Mass Testing ☒

Other “Club” members: USA, UK, Germany, etc.

————————————————-

COVID 19 does not understand “smugness” or a sense of “superiority” but simply follows the Laws of Nature (not suspended for Canada and “Club” members).

Then what does Italia know?

Curve flattening in Italy (touch wood 2 days in a row, lockdown works):

https://i.imgur.com/89J4lz8.png

We know a lockdown works, ground zero Codogno and Vo = 0 new cases since Mar. 4th.

————————————————-

I say the above to you Canada as I watched the news last night and multitudes of brazen people promenading on English Bay as if there were no pandemic.

You will not escape COVID 19 without a lockdown, but what do I know?

-UNFORTUNATELY, the economic consequences of this cavalier attitude I see in Canada will be dire, let alone the health crisis.

…Latest Cdn Positive case increases indicate: a DOUBLING every 5 days and nowhere near peak.

———————

Why have I not mentioned China?

I don’t believe them.

Thinking people, read/watch this by the New York Times:

“How the virus got out”

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html

Then ask yourselves how a WHO #130 ranked healthcare system with a population of 1.4 billion people managed these numbers:

81,496 cases, 3,274 deaths

-Occam’s Razor

#48 OK, Doomer on 03.23.20 at 4:47 pm

Nancy Pelosi says she’ll only pass a bill to save the American economy and American lives if she can:

Include funding for global warming, gender studies and student loan forgiveness and make electoral changes to permanently rig the voting system in favor of Democrats.

The face of Evil….. Liberalism is long gone in the US and has been replaced by Democratic Fascism.

#49 The other Lebowski on 03.23.20 at 4:49 pm

I fought the FED and the FED lost. The emperor is naked. Sh*t is getting real. They fired the ultimate money bazooka and … down we went again. I will be a buyer eventually but I sense we are not near a trade-able low yet…never mind THE low. I’m not a doomer by nature but the real shoe has not even dropped yet. No one big has failed cough *Deutsche Bank* cough, plus no high profile dividend cuts. The Boomer herd hasn’t even blinked yet even though they must be VERY nervous. Strange times indeed.

#50 Ronaldo on 03.23.20 at 4:50 pm

Garth, make that tow trucks, sounds better than two.

#51 Oakville Rocks! on 03.23.20 at 4:52 pm

Interesting survey – looking forward to the results.

For question 2 I would have liked to select both the top two choices. If you have investments that have under performed in the past year(s) and perhaps taken a steeper dive than expected – does it not make sense to sell (rebalance) and switch to something that may benefit more from the recovery when it comes?

Personally, I think CV-19 nervousness will last until at least this time next year – unless a vaccine is developed or a treatment protocol is discovered that can keep our healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed.

What will be more interesting will be the lasting repercussions to our supply chain and countries rethinking the over reliance on China for manufacturing.

We are still working here in Oakville. My customers are hospitals so I expect to be coming to the office for the foreseeable future. Condolences to those who are out of work temporarily.

#52 Earlybird on 03.23.20 at 4:53 pm

Level and fair post! Thank you! Alot of small business in AB were hanging on by a thread and wont re open. Trudeau will soon find out how broke and on the brink most people are. The pent up demand is there…the money to follow through isnt. Can we just unplug the economy and plug it back again to get it working..lol..double layoff household as well. AB has been on survival mode for years…whats a few more…sigh…

#53 Dave on 03.23.20 at 4:53 pm

Many of us use this as our Real Estate Blog so can you share your outlook for 3 months, 6 months and 1 year?

#54 SunShowers on 03.23.20 at 4:55 pm

“The Catch-22 is simple. To stop the virus, stay home. To kill the economy, bankrupt employers, lose your job, run out of money and go nuts with stress, stay home.”

It seems like tying the bare minimum necessities for being alive to having a job might have been a bad way to organize society.

#55 jerry on 03.23.20 at 4:55 pm

Don’t forget, that the universe sent us the Beatles in February 1964, exactly at the right moment the world needed a lift

Something real good is coming again.

#56 Linda on 03.23.20 at 4:58 pm

What I see is this: for those who have the liquidity, this is a wonderful buying opportunity. So ‘the rich’ or those who can invest will eventually see a marked increase in their wealth once the markets recover. The panicked who sell & those whose finances are less than adequate will 1) lose big time & 2) not be able to take advantage of any buying opportunity due to having to spend funds on the basics. Given the fact many businesses can not continue to operate under the circumstances, the resulting layoffs means most people will use whatever financial instruments they have to cover their expenses & I fully expect a wave of bankruptcies as a result of the economic contraction.

My one hope is that people will realize how fragile our privileged existence is & that they come to appreciate how lucky they are to have it. Keep in mind that this is a mild pandemic, yet our medical system is stretched trying to deal with it. Just imagine what it would be like if we didn’t have hospitals, emergency services, clean drinking water, sewage treatment or garbage pickup, just to name a few of the things we take for granted. Best wishes & good health to all, especially those who are providing essential services to the rest of us. Thanks!

#57 Sail away on 03.23.20 at 4:59 pm

Shawn Allen:

Your cousins are muskrats and your father had tiny hands

#58 Annek on 03.23.20 at 5:00 pm

To help the economy, keep buying online. Kudos to all truckers out there keeping the shelves in grocery stores full. I have 3 months of food supplies for the rabbits and 12 months of supplies for the dogs. Humans ? Maybe a week or so.
————
You can eat the rabbits first, and then the dog food when you run out of food.
Sorry, couldn’t resist ….

#59 CC on 03.23.20 at 5:00 pm

#7 Riley Forge on 03.23.20 at 3:53 pm
“There alot of bright people in the world saying this thing lasts 1 to 2 years ……I hate to believe it but I think they might be right. I think the market crashes and stays that way for at least a year.”

I’ve read that as well…hope they are wrong. It all depends how well we do at reducing the rate of transmission. There are some (Bill Gates talks about this) who think that if we do extreme social distancing for 8-10 weeks, that we can flatten the curve enough to work towards some degree of normalcy.

#60 GrumpyPanda on 03.23.20 at 5:02 pm

An old farmer neighbour raised 8 kids in a 1000 sq ft home. He used to say: a lot of people confuse a want and a need. Many people have just found out their products or services aren’t really needed.

#61 Asterix1 on 03.23.20 at 5:03 pm

Spanish government says 80% of residents will get the virus in Madrid. Young and old are affected. The key is having ventilators, that are in short supplies.

Dr’s are already deciding who’s lives or die in many European cities. (lack of equipment). This bug is nasty. We are not adequately prepared in Canada.

Not sure about the V shape recovery. Many are now predicting an L shape stagnation. We Canadians were already in terrible financial shape, once RE drops further, reality will not be kind….

#62 Sean on 03.23.20 at 5:03 pm

I’d really like to see your data for how many deaths and disabilities will be caused by the economic impact of the suppression measures that are being taken. There is a fair amount of data available, based on why has happened in China and Italy, as to how many deaths and disabilities would be caused by the “do nothing” and “mitigation” strategies (fair to day, it’s not pretty).

#63 Flop... on 03.23.20 at 5:05 pm

Shouldn’t the list have been in alphabetical order like this…

M45BC

Alberta
British Columbia
Manitoba
New Brunswick
Newfoundland and Labrador
Northwest Territories
Nova Scotia
Nunavut
Ontario
Prince Edward Island
Quebec
Saskatchewan
Tasmania
Yukon

#64 stage1dave on 03.23.20 at 5:06 pm

I’m kinda surprised what I’m not sure about after completing that survey; but it’s a function of being able to change my outlook once exposed to new factual information.

That seems to be changing daily, and I’m not sure how much info I’m receiving (or searching out) is factual. Certainly running into a lot of concerned, scared, or just freaked-out people tho…

I am becoming convinced, however, that if the people were told to hide in the basement because of an imminent invasion by space aliens, a good portion of them would never leave.

Most peeps I know and deal with have little faith in govt (rightly or wrongly) and if told the sky was blue by any level of it, would walk outside and look up. Where this newfound faith in political pronouncements and directives is originating from is beyond me…

So far, the numbers I’m being shown don’t merit this level of national, provincial, or municipal hysteria.

Guess I’ll have to wait for the next shoe to drop…

#65 Pierre Falardeau on 03.23.20 at 5:07 pm

“let’s be clear about something. … People get sick. They die. All the time. … The mortality rate globally is 4.29%. So to a financial guy that looks like 96% of people survive an illness which causes mild symptoms in 95% of victims. Yet 100% of the economy is being decimated.”

Your lack of empathy is astonishing. If this is your view, why don’t you volunteer as a guinea pig for test vaccines? At least that will provide a meaningful service to your fellow humans, as opposed to, say, telling them they should hold on to their stocks and bonds or, dig forbid, buy the big dip now. Are you man enough to volunteer?

My statement is fair and accurate. Yours is emotional and ad hominem. I think you should therefore volunteer. – Garth

#66 yvr2zrh on 03.23.20 at 5:07 pm

Hello from Zurich quarantine – – 7/35 days.

I realize that from a financial perspective, it sounds like a bad flu going around and why should the economy be sacrificed to save a few old people who may have died anyway. There is some truth to this – but – people need to understand that in this case, the percentage of people who require hospitalization, although low, results in a very high number of people – – a multiple of what the system could handle over a short period. Thus, – as you see in Italy – the system can totally break-down and be running on war-like conditions. Thousands die – many who did not have to. Thus the need to spread this virus out over time. This is about the fact that the medical system cannot support the infection rate and the entire system will break-down without drastic actions.

The next 10-15 days will tell if Canada did enough to “flatten the curve” or if they were not successful and end up with a totally overloaded medical system.

I’m in the middle of it now – it is very serious – in Switzerland – we have unlimited funds to run hospitals – but at this point – we already have some of the key hospitals closed and full because of COVID-19 patients. Non-emergency procedures are nowhere in the near future. Deaths have been fairly low so far but perhaps they are only coming.
Good luck Canada – you had a lucky start on the virus curve but if you don’t take the next steps seriously – you will lose the war on this.

#67 Rico on 03.23.20 at 5:07 pm

Great job these last few weeks Garth.

Some of the provinces still maintain a lock on our retirement funds. Some allow a one time 50% withdrawal.
As we start to draw on these funds there are limits to the amounts we can take out.

Maybe this is a good time for us to lobby our politicians to relax some of these laws so we can better control our retirement funds.

Garth, can you weigh in on this?

#68 Chris on 03.23.20 at 5:12 pm

Holy REITs batman! Another clobbering today. This is getting sporting.

Hope the bottom comes soon.

#69 CC on 03.23.20 at 5:12 pm

@Garth, with all due respect, I think what you miss is that our health care system and health care professionals simply cannot deal with a surge in sick people on top of what they already deal with which is spread throughout the year. That is the main thing that the government is trying to achieve with “social distancing”.

#70 Piano_Man87 on 03.23.20 at 5:12 pm

Maximum duration selectable for the markets to return to January 2020 levels: 18 months.

Not long enough.

#71 CC on 03.23.20 at 5:14 pm

Sorry. I meant to write, “That is the main thing that the government is trying to *avoid* with “social distancing”.

#72 Penny Henny on 03.23.20 at 5:14 pm

Second, pent-up demand will be stunning. That house, haircut, new car, spring outfit, Harley, garden tractor, puppy, kitchen reno or vacation that you’ve lusted for will soon be available.
//////////////////

house- can’t afford it anymore
haircut- might miss a couple before they are back to work
new car- can’t afford it
spring outfit- spring 2021?
harley- geezers stopped buying them a while ago
garden tractor- did someone say tractor =)
kitchen reno- ikea instead of custom
puppy- yay puppies

#73 Quintilian on 03.23.20 at 5:16 pm

“The spending will be epic, despite job losses.”

So epic that the bond market crashes?

#74 TurnerNation on 03.23.20 at 5:17 pm

Our global rulers are set to ratchet this down further. Until we are begging for a one world new government and are totally broke.
Look at this. How many cases in Sask let alone North Sask?
I bet they were ordered to shut down.

“Cameco Corp. is temporarily suspending production at its Cigar Lake uranium mine in Northern Saskatchewan and placing the facility in safe care-and-maintenance mode due to the threat posed by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. There are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 among Cameco’s work force at the present time.”

#75 Who Knows? on 03.23.20 at 5:17 pm

Like I said earlier, risk is being repriced, and the financial component of the economy will shrink from its current +30% to where it should be, 10 to 15 %. The financial management business will never get over the current shock, if this plays out. Lots of financial managers learning something else to do for a living.

#76 Penny Henny on 03.23.20 at 5:19 pm

re markets going back to January levels.
I would have selected 3-5 years but that was not a choice

#77 Kind-of-saving on 03.23.20 at 5:20 pm

Great post Garth, my question with all this; I’ve only got $5K in cash, everything else invested in TFSA / RRSP.

If I loose my job (layoffs rumored this week) & this thing goes on for months & I burn through that $5K – do I start pulling from a LOC?

My bond ETF is only down marginally compared to everything else, so that would be a lesser hit without borrowing money

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.20 at 5:23 pm

@#54 Flop
“Shouldn’t the list have been in alphabetical order like this…”
++++

I didnt realize Aussies were alphabetically anal.
And coming from me…..that’s saying something. :)

#79 The other Lebowski on 03.23.20 at 5:24 pm

I found myself looking up squirrel recipes today. I snapped to reality and told myself “Rob what are you thinking??? Winnipeg is full of rabbits not squirrels” Sheesh! Any Bugs Bunny like Hasenpfeffer recipes you guys can suggest?

#80 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.23.20 at 5:25 pm

CBC has an article about UBI… I wonder why?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5501938

I am absolutely flabbergasted at this government response… Between 400-500 people die every HOUR in in the world from obesity!

#81 IMALWAYSRIGHT on 03.23.20 at 5:26 pm

In the manufacturing sector we haven’t seen any disruption in supply from China other than safety products. China is back up and running at capacity. Many people in China are off work for 4 weeks every year during their New Year celebrations. How is this virus any different from the flu? 3500 Canadians die each year from the flu or complications from it. Ten times that in the USA. Never reported in mainstream media. Something is not right here. Covid-19 will be the scapegoat for the economic disaster and higher taxes to follow. Sorry for 23 Covid-19 deaths in Canada so far. How many flu deaths so far? 37 Million people in our country. The number tested vs positive means nothing.

#82 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.23.20 at 5:27 pm

#63 Flop… on 03.23.20 at 5:05 pm

—–

Oz finally boot the tazmaniacs? Talk about allowing irregulars ..

#83 Flop... on 03.23.20 at 5:28 pm

#347 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 4:30 pm
#341 Flop… on 03.23.20 at 3:37 pm

Yeah I remember them, that’s what ones I always think of.

923 comments for one of them.

M45BC

https://www.greaterfool.ca/?s=Who+are+you

____

#343 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 3:39 pm
#337 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 3:26 pm

I’ve seen over 400 once.

Last time I asked people what they earn there were 700. – Garth
____

I remember Smokie posting “Brag mode on! 400+ comments!”, maybe that’s were I got the 400 from.

_____

From Flop’s link, post #1:

#1 Smoking Man on 08.29.16 at 6:22 pm
Brag fest on…… 400 comments.

HAha! – not bad, sneaking up on 4 years ago!

/////////////////////

Well Trackie, you were roughly 500 comments out, but you did remember Smokie’s comment from a long time ago.

I’ll give you a pass…

M45BC

#84 Camille on 03.23.20 at 5:29 pm

Money managers are not panicking. They are communicating calmly and often. I’m not talking about hedge funds, but every day managers.
They talk about buying opportunities. Collectively they are managing vast amounts invested in stocks, bonds, real estate, utilities, gold, and much more.
Yesterday no depression. Today nearing capitulation. Reassuring thoughts.

#85 not 1st on 03.23.20 at 5:34 pm

I guess there is no safety living in NS either. Marshal law comes there too. I guess if you are going to be under house arrest might as well be in the countryside.

#86 Bob on 03.23.20 at 5:34 pm

We’re all doomed…DOOMED!

#87 MaryEn on 03.23.20 at 5:35 pm

I finally agree with T2 BUT in opposite direction! Sure, ‘enough is enough’ and hopefully tomorrow will be beginning of the end of all this insanity with piles of TP, unreasonable government’s measures and unbelievable attack on freedom and human rights.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242120391054757900

Otherwise, be prepared for toasting not by Corona but by government! https://www.msn.com/en-gb/video/news/quarantined-chinese-resident-walks-dog-from-first-floor-balcony-reels-it-back-up-with-leash-when-finished/vi-BB109QTG

God help us!

#88 Cowboy on 03.23.20 at 5:36 pm

To #8 RainCityRyan

I am a cowboy to, I notice no margin. I have put cash to work in the past 3 weeks. Early but ces’t la vie

#89 pay your taxes on 03.23.20 at 5:40 pm

So how much did you guys lose chasing a 5% yield? I didn’t understand how people could be so blind to risk that they’d jeopardize their principal for such a paltry return. The risk got to be too much for me back in June, so into cash I went. Do you honestly think that the market will rebound the required 34% any time soon? That these broke, debt riddled corporate entities will use their government handouts to pay your dividends ? They got away with it back in 2008 but this time I’m not so sure.

Over 90 percent of the so called “growth” since 2014 (or so) was share buybacks with borrowed money. If the crybaby capitalists want a bailout, no problem. Strip the company officers of their wealth and taxpayers will fund the rest. But, we now own that corporation. If anyone bemoans government control I suggest you check your investment returns and get back to us.

The buybacks stat is bogus. – Garth

#90 Longterm on 03.23.20 at 5:40 pm

“And while the bulk of us won’t get the bug”

I respect your handling of financial numbers, but numbers with respect to pandemics, not so much. Though you are good with compounding calculations so read on.

Here’s a detailed summary of the trajectories with and without different interventions.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Or go to the John Hopkins Covid tracker and look at the total number of KNOWN infections. The number is doubling about every 5 days. So in the absence of strong measures, you can do the compounding math for yourself. 13-14 doublings – roughly two months – until most people in the world have caught it. That’s based on the known infections. If the undetected infections are an order of magnitude higher that the known ones, as some researcher have suggested is plausible, even likely, then the time period could well be half that. even with a death rate of <1% we are talking about 75 million people, with 350k in Canada alone, 3-4 million in the US. If the death rate rally is 3-4% then hundreds of millions will die and innumerable more who can't get medical treatment for heart attacks, strokes and other ailments in an overloaded medical system. With strong measures as are being taken this catastrophe can be minimized if not avoided.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

#91 Flop... on 03.23.20 at 5:41 pm

#79 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.23.20 at 5:27 pm
#63 Flop… on 03.23.20 at 5:05 pm

—–

Oz finally boot the tazmaniacs? Talk about allowing irregulars …

//////////////////

Tasmania is up for grabs to the highest bidder.

Garth could go down there and grab it with his tugboat, and drag it back to the Georgia Straight.

Ram it in between Richmond and Victoria, no need for a bridge or B.C Ferries…

M45BC

#92 MF on 03.23.20 at 5:43 pm

Gonna have to agree with T above (as usual).

There is a big unknown here which is creating a lot of fear. The virus has no brain, doesn’t discriminate between borders, doesn’t care about class, religion, political affiliation and has zero empathy or reason.

The market response has been so drastic because this thing came at a bad time and the fear has been magnified by the uncertainty.

Global rates were dropped too low and held too low for too long since 2009. Debt levels are way too high, and this is on everyone’s mind. Globalization looked to be barely holding on, and weakly staving off one disaster and crisis after the next.

What happens to a global economy when a global health crisis hits, and millions of people are quarantined, whole markets are shut out, and governments have to make a moral decision between life or money? Uncertainty. Fear. And a huge rethink of the current system.

I voted the market would roar back in about 12 months.

I still believe that. But I don’t think it will go up indefinitely. There will be a big reset because of the debt and copious amounts of “stimulus”. That day has been brought closer by decades because of this. In 2-5 years, the big one will hit, and this one will most likely be a long and protracted depression.

MF

#93 Burnaby Boy on 03.23.20 at 5:43 pm

You should be the Prime Minister.

#94 not 1st on 03.23.20 at 5:46 pm

Why do economic neophytes come to an economic blog.

Do you not understand that our economy provides all of the basics for your life and if the shutdown goes past April 15th there will be no economy to come back to? The deaths from a virus will be inconsequential to what follows.

Now with the stupid hysteria on this virus our supply chains are hanging by a thread. Your heat and water are still on and so are those terrible fossil fuels at the pumps. Do a thought experiment and see what happens if any of those crack.

Now myself and other farmers have to go out here next month and try to make sure a global famine doesn’t follow this insanity. God some people are so out of touch. Same people crying about climate change and fossil fuels and big resource projects are still around spreading their BS.

#95 Yukon Elvis on 03.23.20 at 5:47 pm

#48 OK, Doomer on 03.23.20 at 4:47 pm
Nancy Pelosi says she’ll only pass a bill to save the American economy and American lives if she can:

Include funding for global warming, gender studies and student loan forgiveness and make electoral changes to permanently rig the voting system in favor of Democrats.

The face of Evil….. Liberalism is long gone in the US and has been replaced by Democratic Fascism.
……………………………………

Democrats are going to take a fearsome beating in the November election.

#96 jess on 03.23.20 at 5:48 pm

In a worrying development, more than one in 10 of Spain’s total confirmed coronavirus cases were nearly 4,000 health workers

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3076034/coronavirus-go-home-vancouver-stay-home-covid-19

#97 JacqueShellacque on 03.23.20 at 5:48 pm

#62 Sean:

“I’d really like to see your data for how many deaths and disabilities will be caused by the economic impact of the suppression measures that are being taken. ”

Exactly. What’s not being seen is what Nassim Taleb would call the silent evidence. How many will die because the trillions being borrowed and spent today to shut down the economy won’t be available in the future to spend on hospitals, health research, old folks’ homes, hospices, drug plans, etc?

#98 Picksinh3 on 03.23.20 at 5:48 pm

Second, pent-up demand will be stunning. That house, ….

Should we buy, there is no meltdown in housing in our lifetime it seems

#99 MicroGX on 03.23.20 at 5:49 pm

I live in NB, just saying for no other reason, than I like it here! and from reading the comment section I think we are under represented. Look forward to the daily blog more than ever….strangely enough comforting to hear the same message ( at least on the finance front) we don’t know what’s gonna happen, but we’ll get thru it, balance, diversify, don’t sell into a storm, rebalance, stay the course, have a plan, advice, good advice, more advice, more free advice.. thanks bud!

#100 oh bouy on 03.23.20 at 5:51 pm

@#7 Riley Forge on 03.23.20 at 3:53 pm
There alot of bright people in the world saying this thing lasts 1 to 2 years ……I hate to believe it but I think they might be right. I think the market crashes and stays that way for at least a year.
______________________________________

notice how they preface their statement with ‘may’ ‘might’ and ‘could’?

don’t be so gullible.

#101 Coastalzapper on 03.23.20 at 5:53 pm

Would not take my response to the survey

BC
Another 3 months
Cash in the next three months
12-18 months or more for recovery

Still working at a pulp mill, for now, long lasting effects from this but many advantages to be had if a person is properly positioned . So glad I sold my house and now rent. I feel very fortunate.

Stay well all

#102 Sail away on 03.23.20 at 5:54 pm

#89 pay your taxes on 03.23.20 at 5:40 pm

So how much did you guys lose chasing a 5% yield

——————

I’m always happy with a 5% yield… and you only lose for sure by selling

#103 MF on 03.23.20 at 5:54 pm

#81 IMALWAYSRIGHT on 03.23.20 at 5:26 pm

*Sigh*

Why are there still these “its only a flu” people floating around?

COVID:

The death rate is higher. The complication rate is higher. The transmission rate is higher. The immunity level is lower.

I guess some clowns choose money over life. Oh well big reset in priorities coming so you might as well accept it.

Oh yeah, and another complaint about taxes. How lame.

MF

#104 Deplorable Dude on 03.23.20 at 5:54 pm

I’m optimistic things will start turning around within 2 weeks. Why?

My prediction.

Trump has already tweeted his timer. 15 days to decide forward action. We’re half way through that already.

The drugs Trump mentioned are now being tested in New York. We will see great results from those this week and next.

Based on the drugs results, first week of April Trump announces a scaled re-opening of businesses with continued isolation for those at-risk demographics.

The key is how well these already available drugs work, and how well the US is able to make available all necessary medical supplies/etc.

He knows all about cost/benefit analysis.

#105 Keyboard Smasher on 03.23.20 at 5:54 pm

7) Are you ruined financially and spiritually?

Yes.

#106 Ronaldo on 03.23.20 at 5:55 pm

#33 Leftover on 03.23.20 at 4:24 pm
As far as pent-up demand goes, regarding housing, I think pent-up supply might be a bigger problem.

Big job losses, collapsing oil prices and a crushed stock market make people sell their houses, usually because they have to.
————————————————————–
They won’t be selling if their mortgage is underwater and they don’t have the cash to write a cheque to the bank for the difference. Going to be many like this. Bankruptcies like you’ve never seen. No rush to buy.

#107 Pierre Falardeau on 03.23.20 at 5:58 pm

#65
“My statement is fair and accurate. Yours is emotional and ad hominem. I think you should therefore volunteer. – Garth”

You were saying that it us ridiculous to sacrifice the economy when the mortality rate globally is “only” 4.29%. If we undo the lockdown measures, then in a few month up to 90% of all humans will have the virus; you realize the death toll globally would be in the many hundreds of millions, do you?

None of which I stated. – Garth

#108 akashic record on 03.23.20 at 5:59 pm

It will pass, no doubt.

– Will markets sink to 2008 level before bouncing?

– Will it be really helicopter money or delayed accumulating debt for the public (Canadian banks for example don’t forgive the 3 months deferred interest, they actually add it to the bill)?

– What will be the unintended consequences of “the governments and bankers are going nuts trying to mitigate this”?
It is great to mitigate, but who and how will pick up the tab? What kind of “mitigation” inflation are we going to see?

#109 espressobob on 03.23.20 at 6:00 pm

Investing comes with risks. Many of Us should have learned that during the GFC just over a decade ago.

Short term thinking usually leads to big time losses.

Manage the damage and hang tough.

#110 Fred on 03.23.20 at 6:01 pm

Was fortunate to be a fly on the wall of brokerage meeting in Mississauga this morning.

Consensus was that we’re looking at an up to 30% haircut in property prices over the next few months.

Was surprised, seems like a high number given the circumstances.

#111 Comrade on 03.23.20 at 6:02 pm

I wish I hoarded on TP, as I am .. my pants more than usual these days.

#112 Nonplused on 03.23.20 at 6:03 pm

“Second, pent-up demand will be stunning. That house, haircut, new car, spring outfit, Harley, garden tractor, puppy, kitchen reno or vacation that you’ve lusted for will soon be available. The spending will be epic, despite job losses.”

My pent-up demand is going to be largely dependent on how long it takes for my portfolio to recover and the economy to return to normal. There is no money available for me to pent-up anything right now. What a long time ago February was.

There is a lot of speculation out there as to how quickly the economy can recover once the all clear is given. I don’t think it can be restarted like starting a car, with all the moving parts just starting to turn in unison. Instead it will restart like a refinery, where initial processes must be started first before subsequent processes can be started. Also the missed productivity will probably never be recovered, so even though we will be richer in the future than we are right now it will be less than it would have been by some amount.

#113 crazyfox on 03.23.20 at 6:06 pm

I believe questions 3, 4 and 5 have timeline issues on your survey, Garth. Question 3 suggests that this will be over in 12 months or less. This is unrealistic. Question 4 and 5 is yes, of course the markets will recover to Jan levels but its likely 5 years minimum, maybe longer than a decade. Your survey didn’t allow for the right answers on 2 out of 5 questions, felt obligated to point it out.

It’s not an N95 analysis site. No medical expertise. No vaxxing comments. – Garth

Can’t help but think that’s directed at me. Its your blog so I’ll end that, running out of time for all that stuff anyway, I still have a job. Just know in passing that China, the true positive success story out of all this if there is one, turned the corner on COVID-19 because they used technology and masks in conjunction with self quarantines and travel restrictions. They aren’t alone. Taiwan, HK, South Korea, Singapore and now Israel have done the same and their economies are mostly still functional. In North America we are not following their models of success. In some critical area’s, we are not evening beginning to try. As a consequence, it would be be foolish for us to expect the same result here.

The only thing North Americans can hope for now as I see it, is warmer temperatures slowing down the spread of this virus. If that does not happen, no amount of good news will change what follows.

Even if Corona is seasonal, the pent up demand you speak of won’t be what you think. There is too much lost income, too much… I wouldn’t call it fear, more like apprehension that this thing will return in full force come winter and then what. Exuberant speculation will come with a large slice of caution. Simply put, there will be no V recovery. With commodities alone, it will take more than a year to take the slack out. All that turn off nerd talk suddenly has no choice but to be revisited this winter, only it comes late in the game. The return to the old glory days, like I said before, take a picture. Its a new normal, we need to get used to it, same old same old, adapt or die.

Oh yeah, one last thing. There is another pandemic coming from Influenza A within the next 2 years. Nothing we see playing out here globally is a dry run. Much as I appreciate the venue Garth, not everything you see here on this site is meant solely for your eyes.

#114 Sad Montrealer on 03.23.20 at 6:08 pm

I agree with John, post #20. I would also like to hear about whats going on with preferred shares. It’s a litteral bloodbath right now, I thought these positions were more defensive than common stocks but the drop as been worse than my common shares etfs…

Kind of scary when I look at my XPF etf…

They are paying you 6.5% to wait for rates to restore. Not so bad. – Garth

#115 Steve French on 03.23.20 at 6:08 pm

Sir Garth:

You keep mentioning the stat that 95% of people are basically unaffected or have mild symptoms.

But a mortality rate of 4.29% applied to 36 million Canadians could result in 1.5 million Canadian deaths from coronavirus.

Let that sink in.

This will simply not be allowed to happen.

The downside is that we will also absolutely crush economic activity, through social lockdowns.

And even if we do clamp down and control this in the next month, then there’s no guarantee that we will not just having a series of rolling infections requiring more lockdowns… for… what… years?

We are all in a very serious bind here. This is not going to be a walk in the park.

Assuming a 100% infection rate is insane. Your body count is fiction. – Garth

#116 Trojan House on 03.23.20 at 6:13 pm

I don’t believe in millions of body bags piled up in closed hockey arenas but I do believe if governments continue along this path of economic destruction, a depression is likely.

In the medical profession they say that sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing. Clearly that is not the case in this situation at all levels.

#117 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 6:17 pm

Still don’t get it.

If someone isn’t sick, hasn’t traveled, hasn’t been in contact with anyone who has, is in a low risk demographic (under 60) and keeps their distance from others, why on earth would they need to be locked down?

Can’t go for a Sunday drive because they might self contaminate? Utterly retarded.

Why should anyone need to shut down their life and livelihood in the off chance they’ll catch this cold bug and spread it? Should they also never drive because they might cause an accident and kill someone?

It is insane and unprecedented. And don’t bother regurgitating some fear mongering stats, extrapolations or predictions you’ve swallowed.

No “potential” scenario warrants eviscerating our freedoms and rights. That this isn’t obvious to more people is frightening.

I’d rather live in a functioning economy with risk of a cold bug than a shut down country with less risk. Besides, we’re all going to get it anyway, right? Isn’t that what we’re being told? Sooo…party on, hope for the best.

And you gotta wonder, if locking people down is so effective at stopping the spread of a pathogen, then dare I ask why the same approach hasn’t been taken, for say, HIV (R0 2-5) or the good old season flu (R0 2-3)? What level of risk makes it ok to restrict our rights? Is there a consensus?

If you want to stay home to avoid risk, stay home. Please! The open roads are invigorating.

Telling others to do so? Shove it.

If they try to force people in our houses where I live, I will strive to be the first watch burned at the stake in 2020.

Oh…sorry!! Thought I was on Greaterflu.ca again. My bad!

Um, investing: buying opportunity coming!!

#118 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 6:18 pm

#36 Yukon Elvis on 03.23.20 at 4:26 pm
A lot of big money has departed Canada. Kinder Morgan, Conoco Phillips, Royal Dutch Shell, Marathon Oil, Devon Energy, Equinor ASA, Warren Buffet, Teck, and many others. World class players. Lack of confidence. Can’t build a pipeline. Can’t and won’t remove protestors from rail blockades. Over regulated and endless approval/review process. Can they establish and grow a business here? They gave up. Better off to invest where governments are business/capital friendly.
And that was all BEFORE “the virus formerly known as Wuhan” afflicted us. Gonna be some hard days ahead.
——-

Yep. By the time the dust settles and life gets back to normal (whatever that turns out to be), Trudeau and his band of merry peoplekind will have single handedly sunk this country into a quarter Trillion worth of debt since “because it’s 2015” escaped his lips. Growing the debt “from the heart out” while times were good, and now a frenzied tornado of spending to who knows what end.

For the first time, he’s got a real problem on his hands – and SFA in the toolshed to deal with it.

He’s going to have 2023 in the bag. No one else is going to want the job.

#119 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 6:20 pm

Sigh. Which witch is…watch.

#120 Jager on 03.23.20 at 6:22 pm

Wuflu spreading everywhere. Barring a miracle 80% will eventually be infected.

https://www.naturalnews.com/images/Coronavirus-Map-March-04-23-2020.gif

#121 Tony on 03.23.20 at 6:26 pm

The Coronavirus can come back in rolling waves after the summer is over here in Canada. Trump can’t be happy all this money is to be given out in April even though the tax file date has been pushed forward to July 15th. He would have wanted everything doled out late in August or early in September. It will be interesting to see if any of the news out of Washington is the truth in the future to do with the unemployment rate and GDP?

#122 Penny Henny on 03.23.20 at 6:26 pm

#93 Sad Montrealer on 03.23.20 at 6:08 pm
I agree with John, post #20. I would also like to hear about whats going on with preferred shares. It’s a litteral bloodbath right now, I thought these positions were more defensive than common stocks but the drop as been worse than my common shares etfs…

Kind of scary when I look at my XPF etf…

They are paying you 6.5% to wait for rates to restore. Not so bad. – Garth
//////////////

6.5% if you bought today, if you bought before not so good.
BTW seems like the yield is going up every day

#123 John in Mtl on 03.23.20 at 6:28 pm

Thank you Garth, for being a lighthouse in this storm and helping to guide us to safer shores.

Question to you, Sir Garth, and Blog Doggies:

Where’s all this “stimulus” money coming from? ; all forms of governments always harp about not having enough and having to borrow & tax to death.
– borrowing from other countries? – won’t they need $ too?
– selling or using the country’s assets/GDP as collateral?
– trillions in a printing press but no collateral to back it up?
– taxes (and, of course, future taxes galore!)
– etc..

Forgive my ignorance, I’m a techie, not a money guy. I haven’t much of an idea or knowledge about the **very big** picture of world economies.

#124 Flop... on 03.23.20 at 6:30 pm

My citizenship test that Stephen Harper signed off on was all wrong.

So many questions about past happenings and beavers.

What happened in the war of 1812?

Who cares?

What it should have had, and my responses.

Will you blockade rail lines? No.

Will you hoard toilet paper? No

Will you promise to buy our overpriced real estate? No

Will you work cash jobs on the side,because we can’t get our act together as a country? No

Do you promise to visit Toronto once for a week and never return? Yes

Sure there’s lots of others, but you get the drift…

M45BC

#125 Grandv!ew on 03.23.20 at 6:37 pm

I don’t know about you but I am way more afraid of this
then the virus….

https://globalnews.ca/news/6720551/justin-trudeau-coronavirus-support-bill/

#126 Tony on 03.23.20 at 6:38 pm

I was at Markville Mall today one of the hair cutting places is still open today for business just outside of Walmart. Tim Horton’s is open Walmart of course, Shoppers drug mart, a few places in the food court and not much else. More people are wearing masks and hand sanitizers are now in the mall.

#127 Stevie on 03.23.20 at 6:42 pm

The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country’s coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

Lies damn lies and statistics….. don’t believe everything the idiots in charge of the countries tell you…

#128 Caledondave on 03.23.20 at 6:42 pm

I just heard that part of the legislation being tabled on Tuesday may include far reaching changes by the Finance Minister which may include drastic changes to tax law. Well, I for one am glad I have moved all my money to the Bank of Antarctica.

#129 the Awakened One on 03.23.20 at 6:44 pm

Hello Garth,

Thank you for all the great education you have given for Free over the years for all Canadians. And humor. And spiritual guidance continually poured forth to us for free before Hell’s gates…

I admire your sense of humor, even in the darkest time… and it keeps me going back to the blog, and hang tight for the ride – I’ve seen a > 25% drop in my portfolio. But this is the time to separate the men and the boys.

This too, shall pass.

You stay safe Sir: wash your hands religiously, stay alive & well, keep away from others (non household members) for now.

#130 ulsterman on 03.23.20 at 6:48 pm

Just for some perspective, even in a country that didn’t react well at the start and became the worst outside of China – Italy – they already have a declining death rate. Also, bear this in mind when you read the headlines. 99.89% of Italians were not infected (or at least not enough to have been tested). 64,000 infections out of 60,300,000 people.

#131 Darryl on 03.23.20 at 6:49 pm

Liberals bill will give minister of finance authority to tax and spend at will.Liberals and bloc will make this Liberal power grab complete. Liberals just need to promise Quebec that they will be taxed less and receive more than the rest of the provinces. Never expect the morally corrupt to give up an opportunity to grab more power.

#132 Bob Dog on 03.23.20 at 6:51 pm

This is is natural selection in action. Virus have played an important part of evolution over the last 4 billion years.

An economic collapse will kill more people than the virus and could end civilization.

The virus cant be stopped.

My picks

SHOP
ZM

BA
DIS

#133 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 03.23.20 at 6:54 pm

After WWII people started spending again in a big way. We has a boom.

The same thing will happen on a smaller scale with this virus crisis. Except for the asbestos mines and DDT manufacturers. Also, toilet paper manufactures may have a downturn as hoarders work through excess inventory.

#134 Wait There on 03.23.20 at 6:54 pm

Now think about this. That nutcase at the head of the WHO could have prevented this when on January 24th he should have made this a coming pandemic. Once the word pandemic sunk in, ALL governments would have taken notice and prepared.

Second. Because we did not close the borders COMPLETELY globally around China we then suffered contamination. Hundreds of thousands of travellers flew in and out of China when they should NOT have.
Canada got the song and dance. Review the video of Hadjus saying why this was to be a bad thing if we closed China off.
Then as soon as Italy and Iran hit, it was plainly obvious what was going on. We should have hit the doors shut immediately.
We trusted the “Science” guys to say, things are normal, we can have international travel even with China while China was in lockdown. Brilliant.

If we had allowed the airlines to suffer international travel business with China, at least we’d still have an economy. Now what? China saves their economy only to have no customers to sell to? Brilliant.

It comes down to this and Garth alludes to it. At some point in the future, weeks, we will be told that it is OK for Children and younger workers without health issues to go back out. The first might be 30 years old and under. Yeah, they will get sick but so what. That’s GOOD. They build immunity. Then say those under 40, then 45 etc.

Whether or not those drugs that Trump is touting works we are going to have to force people to go back out. IF they work, then the orders for younger people to return will come sooner. etc.

The problem now is that we are so protective with everything anti bacterial etc, even before covid, that this mentality is going to produce scared sheltered sheep.

The world leaders were too politically inclined to not say NO to China are the ones that caused this. Should anyone take advice from him? Ne reacted way too late. Plus where are all the science guys who said there was asymptomatic transmission?

Oh, BTW, the MSM did not tell people that dogs can have Covid19. This is not BS, it was proven by Hong Kong and confirmed last week. Sorry dog lovers, they walk all over the pavement and come back home. Wonder why in the Far East they disinfect the streets? Figure out how your dog can contract covid and have no symptoms.

#135 Slim on 03.23.20 at 6:55 pm

I would think if governments try cooping up people at home for too long, it’s going to backfire.

Especially, with so many unemployed staying at home all day. It must be very stressful and hard on families as it is.

This could result in civil unrest the longer it goes on. Virus or no virus.

#136 non isolationist on 03.23.20 at 6:56 pm

virus comic relief

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=205&v=_ds9u0O6X8o&feature=emb_logo

#137 Wait There on 03.23.20 at 6:58 pm

Oh Yeah, GRETA is happy because world leaders took actions and helped us stop burning fossil fuels.
Look at her smile now.

#138 Dr. Zhivago on 03.23.20 at 6:59 pm

#16 Retro Marxist on 03.23.20 at 4:02 pm

“Dr. Gurjit Bajwa claims that there are way more coronavirus cases that what the media is telling you. No, he isn’t an Alex Jones nut—He’s a medical doctor!”

https://www.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/fng9h3
/toronto_emergenc

Thanks for posting. Truly terrifying…

#139 YouKnowWho on 03.23.20 at 6:59 pm

I don’t believe demand will pick up so fast after Garth.

Many will be pinned to the ground on discretionary spending and will have had plenty of time to do with less- a learning process that will lean out discretionary budgets.

Also, people will perhaps be motivated here to do something about savings rate you highlight – in case some this happens again, soon. I mean, we’ve had a bunch in just 17 years. Nature is fighting back well against our consumption and plastics killing her fish and turtles.

So far, I’m seeing more opportunities to load up on debt as answers offered by Governments, more ways to borrow, more ways to not deleverage historic debt levels.

I walked an empty mall recently. Amazing at how useless all the stores were. Only Shoppers was opened – the only essential store, oh…also Lens Crafters.

I finished my walk through the empty church of consumerism with the following conclusion – “there is nothing here I needed anyway from all these closed stores.” I picked up a 6-pack of Kleenex at Shoppers and left. They had toilet paper in stock.

#140 Loonie Doctor on 03.23.20 at 7:03 pm

I will break the no medical expertise comment rule. Not much time to comment as I really am in the thick of planning to deal with the ICU aspect of this thing from the moment I wake up until I fall asleep. We have barely seen any patients at this point, but the problem is that when it ramps up, it does so quickly – like compound returns on my investments used to ;)

Hard to know how this will go, but mortality jumps when you run out of ventilators and start making rationing decisions like in Italy. By the time you even get close to seeing that, the horse is out of the barn. Staying below that threshold is a major inflection point.

I don’t think that this is close to a hopeless situation. In Ontario, we have made pandemic plans since SARS and slowly built capacity since then. Much of this is dusting that off and updating. The limiters will still be human resources and equipment if rates aren’t slowed early. Kind of like investing while young to make compounding work for you later. There are many innovative ways that we can address both the HR and equipment issues and I have see this happening first hand. People are taking it seriously which is good and pulling together which is even better.

I do wonder if a more balanced medical/economic approach would be to isolate those at high risk of hospitalization (old or immunocompromised) while the rest of the herd builds immunity that will ultimately protect them. But, I am an intensivist and know more about dealing with the fall-out when people get real sick than public health. Plus, effective public health implementation requires effective politicians to lead and execute. They seem to have chosen a blanket approach. Simple idea, but it is hard to control a whole population rather than targeting segments who should have a vested interest in complying anyway. Maybe, that isn’t politically correct. The shock and awe approach is also defensible politically. If things go well, it was because of your historic bold action. If bad, then it would have been worse if you hadn’t been so bold. Regardless, it will all pass eventually and the initial bolus of crisis is always the worst. Then, you learn and adapt.
-LD

#141 Felon Musk on 03.23.20 at 7:04 pm

#25 Friedman’s Ghost on 03.23.20 at 4:16 pm

“Never in the history of the markets, has indices dropped 35% and not proven to be a great time to put capital to work.

I must state, however, that this is a job for CB’s more than Government and we can only hope it’s a cash injection into the populace and not into Government backed programs. The helicopter doors must come open!”

Hi uncle Miltie. As to your first comment, you are familiar with the term “catching a falling knife” I hope. As to your second comment, Wall Street will get its trillions, Felon Musk will keep his zombie company Tesla going and Joe Blow will get Jack Sh#@!

#142 Anna on 03.23.20 at 7:04 pm

Interesting watching Trump live. Planning a very different approach. America will be open for business much sooner than Canada it seems. Interesting times ahead.

#143 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 7:04 pm

#107 Pierre Falardeau on 03.23.20 at 5:58 pm

You were saying that it us ridiculous to sacrifice the economy when the mortality rate globally is “only” 4.29%. If we undo the lockdown measures, then in a few month up to 90% of all humans will have the virus; you realize the death toll globally would be in the many hundreds of millions, do you?

LCBO.

Immediately.

Over 57 million people die every year as a matter of course.

Of these deaths, over 5 million are attributed to anxiety disorders.

Suggest you cool your jets before you become one of them.

#144 S.Bby on 03.23.20 at 7:05 pm

Martial law, shutdowns, destroying the economy, etc. these are the things the left just loves to do. Wreak havoc and seize control of everyone’s lives. We can be sure our freedoms will be more limited once this virus passes.

Trump says he will reassess the situation at the 15 day mark and I think he is right on that because otherwise this will carry on for months.

#145 Garth is my Guy on 03.23.20 at 7:06 pm

Garth, I have been buying preferred shares these past two weeks like a dog on a bone. Am I crazy or wise?

#146 Jager on 03.23.20 at 7:06 pm

Crypto coming soon to a fiat near you…
https://www.coindesk.com/house-stimulus-bills-envision-digital-dollar-to-ease-coronavirus-recession

Will government sanctioned crypto outlaw btc, xrp, eth, etc?

#147 espressobob on 03.23.20 at 7:10 pm

#132 Bob Dog

Not that I’m being critical and picking individual stocks may be right for some.

It’s the unsystemic risk that bothers me right now. Owning ETFs that track major indices would seem a safer choice for most.

Those owning a basket of hand picked stocks could get their heads lobbed off if a few of them disappoint.

Systemic risk isn’t scary enough right now?

#148 Rob on 03.23.20 at 7:10 pm

Dizzie Lizzie May suggested that Canadians should replace all foreign oil imports with Alberta Tar Sands oil today. Can you believe it! That is the first sensible word I’ve ever heard her say. Not only would that jumpstart our economy, but it would bring hope that we could actually get this country working again. Thank you Liz.

#149 Deplorable Dude on 03.23.20 at 7:11 pm

Some light reading for you.

Current Canadian Covid-19 mortality is 1.3%

I don’t see any exponential rise in cases…yet, in fact the opposite.

They’ve dropped significantly over the last few days unless we have a tonne of yet to be reported cases.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html

#150 popeye the sailor man on 03.23.20 at 7:17 pm

2 In our Family hi risk of very bad result if they get COVID.

We are hunkered down like fort knox.

I Just got home from a very safe environment but travels 1500KM by car to get home, because flights take a week to find out if you had a COVID Carrier.

I’m self isolating for a while from family to ensure i’m clear after a number of gas, and reststops.

My job is secondary to my family I will be primary care giver here in a few more days.

If I have to use HELOC or sip on my investments to get through I will.

I’m lucky to have been very prudent over the last 20 years. Overall stress is moderate as long as I ignore the investments.

Thanks to everyone taking the extra effort, I think things like staples having drive by pick up, or restaurants doing the same will help with keeping the walking till it can run again.

#151 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.23.20 at 7:19 pm

23 Rico on 03.23.20 at 4:12 pm
US deaths are increasing at 1.3x per day.
Unless something changes they will hit 1M dead by mid May.
Their current strategy is “we can’t contain it so we will focus on treatment”.
This will most likely thing result in the death rate increasing once they run out of nurses, ventilators, and beds.
But hey, let’s not let the stock market go down.

—–

In the immortal words of Gord Downie, “I can make you scared, if you want me to”

#152 unbalanced on 03.23.20 at 7:19 pm

Just saved 60 k this year. Not buying new subaru or taking holidays for 3 weeks to East Coast and 1 week to Vegas. Cant fly anyways.

#153 Rob on 03.23.20 at 7:21 pm

And while we’re at it, instead of throwing trillions of helicopter dollars at windmills, why don’t we throw just a few billion to subsidize a refinery. That would put some people to work in the oil patch, the refinery, and all the associated support jobs. It doesn’t make economic sense today, but maybe a few years from now it would reap benefits. If the gov’t can buy a TMX pipeline and not build it, surely they could help build a refinery. It’s called value added through secondary processing…

#154 JM Keynes on 03.23.20 at 7:22 pm

#123 John in Mtl on 03.23.20 at 6:28 pm
Thank you Garth, for being a lighthouse in this storm and helping to guide us to safer shores.

Question to you, Sir Garth, and Blog Doggies:

Where’s all this “stimulus” money coming from? ; all forms of governments always harp about not having enough and having to borrow & tax to death.
– borrowing from other countries? – won’t they need $ too?
– selling or using the country’s assets/GDP as collateral?
– trillions in a printing press but no collateral to back it up?
– taxes (and, of course, future taxes galore!)
___________________________________________

Countries with hard currencies print the money. (There are only 8 hard currencies in the world btw.)We have had fiat currencies since the end of the gold standard. There is nothing backing it up except the government’s revenues and taxation power. Here is the kicker. Most of it will go to Wall Street, zombie companies like Tesla who survive on capital market infusions while not making a profit (13% of all listed companies in advanced countries are zombie companies…) and big banks. Japan is the world leader amongst advanced nations with its money printed equal to 250% of their GDP. Canada’s debt is about 34% of GDP so we have a long way to go to catch up to Japan!

#155 S.Bby on 03.23.20 at 7:24 pm

I need a haircut and all the barbers are closed.

#156 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.23.20 at 7:24 pm

#140 Loonie Doctor on 03.23.20 at 7:03 pm

Thanks LD! Keep it up, stay safe, I agree with your musings.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/21/i-fought-ebola-heres-my-advice-for-health-workers-fighting-covid-19/

#157 MF on 03.23.20 at 7:24 pm

“Canadian confidence, says pollster Nik Nanos, just took the biggest drop on record. Over 55% of people think things will be worse in six months than now”
Not sure as this evening next door house to me here in Scarborough small Bungalow As Is sold $200,000 over asking Cash offer No conditions, the asking Price was $699,000.

Amazing how people keep falling for that old list-under-market-price trick. – Garth

#158 Doug t on 03.23.20 at 7:25 pm

The human reality is being tested – how are you reacting?

#159 Jager on 03.23.20 at 7:26 pm

Direct evidence of Chloroquine efficacy for treatment of Wuflu.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1242135520420990980

#160 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 7:27 pm

Shawn Allen:

Your shoes are old fashioned and your house smells like cheese.

Apologize or this evisceration will continue…

#161 the Jaguar on 03.23.20 at 7:27 pm

Before this virus crisis reared its ugly head many were already saying the ‘bull run’ was on precarious footing, many questioning whether the market was overvalued, etc. with reasonable questions about repo markets, share buybacks, etc. Some were waiting for the ‘other shoe’ to drop.
Covid-19) washing up on the beach is unprecedented. Really and truly an event of Black Swan quality. I cannot see how any graph or chart from previous ‘downturn’ events can logically be used to anticipate any upward market trend. Forget Black Monday, etc. That was a walk in the park compared to this…The US border has been closed and ‘hospital ships’ are being employed off the coasts of the USA. Hard to believe these kinds of events will not shake the confidence of investors for some time to come, and that is assuming the vulnerable investors are able to pick themselves off the floor and regain any level of confidence or consciousness. Not trying to be a doomer, but any serious examination of what is coming down shows it is the event of a lifetime. This is a walk through the valley of the shadow of death. If some think it is an over reaction to a crisis I don’t necessarily disagree with that premise, but nonetheless that is the path we are on. If people were fed the truth instead of lies, manipulation, Russiagate, and the daily diet of Internet Porn we might actually be in a space where we knew what we were really facing right now. But we all went quietly into the night, never demanding more of our media, and now haven’t got a clue how big or small an event we are facing. Based on the current curtailments and government actions I can only conclude it the event of my lifetime. I will need to use all my experience and skills to respond and find a place of safety. In no way does that only cover financial issues, if fact they are the least of my concerns. I will put my faith in the things I know. Living better with less just might see me through the crisis.

#162 JSS on 03.23.20 at 7:29 pm

My favourite stock of the week is… Brookfield Asset Management (BAM)

#163 Your Buddy in Good Times and in Bad on 03.23.20 at 7:30 pm

#118 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 6:18 pm

“Yep. By the time the dust settles and life gets back to normal (whatever that turns out to be), Trudeau and his band of merry peoplekind will have single handedly sunk this country into a quarter Trillion worth of debt since “because it’s 2015” escaped his lips. Growing the debt “from the heart out” while times were good, and now a frenzied tornado of spending to who knows what end.”

This from the hypocrite par excellence whose household income has been the recipient of that debt the government has racked up and who without it would be far worse off financially. Guess that goes over your thick skull…:) What is your solution cowboy? Please outline it o wise one. Got the popcorn ready…

#164 oh bouy on 03.23.20 at 7:31 pm

@#143 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 7:04 pm
#107 Pierre Falardeau on 03.23.20 at 5:58 pm

You were saying that it us ridiculous to sacrifice the economy when the mortality rate globally is “only” 4.29%. If we undo the lockdown measures, then in a few month up to 90% of all humans will have the virus; you realize the death toll globally would be in the many hundreds of millions, do you?

LCBO.

Immediately.

Over 57 million people die every year as a matter of course.

Of these deaths, over 5 million are attributed to anxiety disorders.

Suggest you cool your jets before you become one of them.
____________________________

I have to say, i look forward to your posts.
The doom and misinformation has grown ‘exponentially’
on here lately. chin up people.

#165 CB on 03.23.20 at 7:32 pm

Beating this virus and getting our economy back on track is going to take leadership and hard decisions. After listening to our PM speak to the country daily for the past week…well, does anyone believe he’s up to the job? By comparison take the time to listen to Governor Cuomo…
Love this blog GT! Keep up the good work; we need your voice out there! (I’ll end with the mandatory SU to mix it up lol)

#166 binky barnes on 03.23.20 at 7:33 pm

Something real good is coming again.

The Leafs win Lord Stanley’s cup at its next awarding (in the early summer of 2021)…..

BTW, listening to JT announce earlier today that “enough is enough” (re: the lack of social distancing among some Canadians) was the last straw with this guy for me. If he was attempting to sound prime ministerial he sadly missed the mark.

A former colleague once told me that some politicians had/have the “royal jelly” while others did/do not. Unfortunately our guy does not have it, and it is now clear to me that he never will have it. Churchill he ain’t! Too bad, because Canadians haven’t needed somebody with the “royal jelly” as badly as we need it now.

#167 Worried on 03.23.20 at 7:33 pm

To be honest I was not worried about Convid-19 I was worried about the panic of normal folks.
Anyway I am not a doomer but I had a thought one million Canadians came home last week. Let’s assume 10 percent had the virus? Wow!

Please anyone who entered Canada last week quarantine yourself right now!

Same goes for all those Americans did you see the five hour wait lines in Chicago. I think the virus rate will be much higher as everyone travelled home.

500,000 people applied for EI
Assume $600 a week for easy math
300,000,000 weekly burn rate

I agree there will be no pent up demand everyone will be broke.

Here’s my forecast, markets will continue to drop
The maximum cases will peak end of April
It will be almost over end of May
Then what happens everyone goes back to work?

There will be no war measures act ops I mean emergency Act. although there are millions of stupid people, it should be done but it won’t.

One last comment, think of all the sex workers who cannot collect unemployment.

Count your blessings, be happy,

#168 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 7:36 pm

#130 ulsterman on 03.23.20 at 6:48 pm

Just for some perspective, even in a country that didn’t react well at the start and became the worst outside of China – Italy – they already have a declining death rate. Also, bear this in mind when you read the headlines. 99.89% of Italians were not infected (or at least not enough to have been tested). 64,000 infections out of 60,300,000 people.
—-

Damn You!

Where is your empathy!?

Stop looking at percentages and concentrate only on the number of infections!

.0001% of the Italian population has died from CV-19. That’s one tenth of one thousandth of one percent. I had to do the math myself because the MSM would rather tell you 600 people died last Friday.

Much more ad revenue when you run click bait rather than headlines.

#169 S.Bby on 03.23.20 at 7:37 pm

The medical profession is using scare tactics on the politicians and the politicians are eating it up. The medical profession is concerned and they should be, BUT, we live in the real world and quarantining an entire population for a month or longer is just not practical. Sometimes we just have to deal with repercussions when we live in the real world, this isn’t some kind of computer simulation.

#170 Vinny Virus on 03.23.20 at 7:37 pm

#117 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 6:17 pm

“No “potential” scenario warrants eviscerating our freedoms and rights. That this isn’t obvious to more people is frightening.”

Right on brother! Our freedoms and rights trump spreading this virus to everyone! Screw the social distancing! We have our fundamental right to pass this virus around! Now get out there folks and start spreading!

#171 WUL on 03.23.20 at 7:38 pm

#42 Fred on 03.23.20 at 4:33 pm
How long will this recovery take?
……….
Garth add a new box
3 years. way worse than 2008

**********

Agreed. Some of the limited answers were leaning toward optimism.

But Garth is an optimist, has a heart, generally believes people are generally virtuous and he has other positive characteristics.

He’s my opposite.

WUL

M64Shut down in The Mac

#172 johnny on 03.23.20 at 7:40 pm

Well here we are..pin meet bubble. The pin is COVID and the bubble is our massively indebted financial system. If it wasnt COVID something else would have popped the bubble at some point.

The central bankers created this mess because they have kept interest rates far too low for too long and it caused everyone to leverage up to the hilt. Hence very few people have savings, corporations cant handle any shock, governments are awash in debt.

Now guess what..the geniuses at the Fed are once again going to flood the world with trillions printed out of thin air..it really is QE infinity even though they said QE1 was temporary..they were only going to monetize debt for a short period then sell it back. How did that work out..

So once again they will likely pump things up again but the resulting inflation will eventually be scary as there will be so many dollars floating around. The USA is becoming the Weimer republic..Zimbabwe..theFed just said so..its all their in black and white..and somehow people like Garth still think the central bankers are geniuses when they created the mess we are in.

#173 JSK on 03.23.20 at 7:40 pm

Spending will be epic despite unemployment? Come on, Garth. That’s a naive statement. People have blown all of their disposable income stacking up on supplies. If demand wasn’t being pushed forward, the ongoing cash would’ve had a steeper slope. Fear does not vanish into thin air either. A handful of people will go back to normal lives, others will stay hunkered down, and destruction of wealth will leave a long lasting taste. The only illusion of a rebound will come from debasement of currency, and it’s nothing worth celebrating.

#174 Doctor Zhivago on 03.23.20 at 7:42 pm

140 Loonie Doctor on 03.23.20 at 7:03 pm

Thanks for the insights Doc, good luck and thank you for all that you do!

#175 Post on 03.23.20 at 7:43 pm

pent-up demand will be stunning. That house, haircut, new car, spring outfit, Harley, garden tractor, puppy, kitchen reno or vacation that you’ve lusted for will soon be available. The spending will be epic, despite job losses.
————————————-
The pent up demand for stuff will definitely happen. Real estate – might be in tough for a while. Long term unemployment, consumer confidence and a newly discovered habit of saving will be the new norm for some time to come.

#176 DON on 03.23.20 at 7:44 pm

#3 FXBDM on 03.23.20 at 3:49 pm

No Quebec in the survey choices.

Yikes. Fixing now. – Garth
*******

Can you imagine if you made that error with Alberta???

Holy Dog.

Jason Kenney and his War Room would be at your door step post haste.

Crisis averted.

#177 John in Mtl on 03.23.20 at 7:45 pm

I don’t get all the people that are yapping about our “lost freedom”, “our rights are being trampled/taken away”, whatever. You all speak as if we are now in a “police state” and these measures are forever.

People, this is a PUBLIC HEALTH PROBLEM, not a human rights problem. Freedoms and rights are SUSPENDED for the duration of this storm. Do you seriously think people would freely agree to keep living under these conditions even after the pandemic is over? No way, there would be blood in the streets.

“To come to your senses, you have to go out of your mind” – Alan Watts.

#178 Ronaldo on 03.23.20 at 7:46 pm

I am beginning to think that the best cure for this virus is to shut down CNN and CBC and all the other doomer outlets. Unbelievable the crap they are spewing and the drama along with it. What a bunch of bozos.

#179 Re-Cowtown on 03.23.20 at 7:47 pm

#23 Rico on 03.23.20 at 4:12 pm
US deaths are increasing at 1.3x per day.
Unless something changes they will hit 1M dead by mid May.
________________________________

And a million-billion-zillion-kajillion Americans dead by August, according to your math skills.

Math is hard. That’s why they don’t let CNN reporters and Arts majors do it. Your kind of math is the main reason that we have mass delusions about Global Warming.

My math predicted a peak in Italian deaths two days ago. Voila. I’ll predict a peak in the US in in two weeks.

And that’s assuming that nothing changes.

#180 oh bouy on 03.23.20 at 7:47 pm

@#131 Darryl on 03.23.20 at 6:49 pm
Liberals bill will give minister of finance authority to tax and spend at will.Liberals and bloc will make this Liberal power grab complete. Liberals just need to promise Quebec that they will be taxed less and receive more than the rest of the provinces. Never expect the morally corrupt to give up an opportunity to grab more power.
__________________________________________

Your other brother darryl got the smarts eh

#181 chris on 03.23.20 at 7:49 pm

Your question 6 needs the option “Yes, but not because of Coronavirus, because we were foolish enough to elect another Trudeau and he ruined the economy”

#182 Karnac the Magnificent on 03.23.20 at 7:49 pm

#145 Garth is my Guy on 03.23.20 at 7:06 pm

“Garth, I have been buying preferred shares these past two weeks like a dog on a bone. Am I crazy or wise?”

Time will tell….

#183 Wrk.dover on 03.23.20 at 7:50 pm

I know timing markets is frowned on here, but, I don’t chase the, very, very, last, buck. When Trump killed the sillymani of Iran, I got the first and only chance to cash out of Suncor at 52 week high. I waited a day to be certain and lost a Dollar/share. So be it. The rest of you didn’t? Nor did you sell every thing else in the drawer in late February up 35% over three years and US election looming? No wonder you’d rather be sick than stay home. You have never enough money hoard obsession.

#184 RecoveryLength on 03.23.20 at 7:50 pm

Why is the maximum time period for recovery 12 – 18 months on the survey? It is perfectly reasonable to expect the recovery to take longer than this.

#185 espressobob on 03.23.20 at 7:51 pm

The problem with investing is the worry. Some are better than others dealing with emotional drama. Welcome to reality.

A few get this and learn to piss with the big dogs.

Deal with it,and on that note I have to deal with Woodford Reserve. Goodnight.

#186 not 1st on 03.23.20 at 7:52 pm

I see Chateau Bill didn’t hesitate to grant himself new taxation powers that don’t require parliamentary approval.

What a joke. We will all be rats in a cage after this blows through.

#187 Ungabunga on 03.23.20 at 7:53 pm

aware of projects that are being greenlit by the province with messages like “don’t worry about permits, we’ll fix it on the backend”

#188 Lost...but not leased on 03.23.20 at 7:56 pm

Hmmmm..

Tried to post a few comments….

Has Turdeau kidnapped Garth?

#189 Italy on 03.23.20 at 7:57 pm

#37 toronto on 03.23.20 at 4:28 pm
In Italy, death rate per case is closer to 10%. An example of what happens if we don’t take it seriously.

____________________________________________

Completely inaccurate. There are easily over 100,000 Italians infected when we count those who are asymptomatic, mildly sick and recovering at home, not tested and have not been confirmed as positive. Death rate nowhere near 10%.

#190 Rainman on 03.23.20 at 7:59 pm

The survey didn’t go through – said I already submitted one?? Hopefully there isn’t another me out there??

#191 Coho on 03.23.20 at 8:01 pm

Will this pass? Probably, but what will have been lost during it? And what will society look like after it?

For the “in crowd” it will be feasting time again after the markets have lost 1/2 to 2/3rds their values from peak. Is the average person, even visitors to this blog part of the “in crowd”?

Pent up demand? Yes, another boom and bust cycle will begin with the usual suspects profiting. The ruling elite take the rest of us on a path of twists and turns the outcome of which will not end well for average people. The game is rigged to separate you from your money. They want it. All of it! And your rights and freedoms, too, whether it is slow or quick, sooner or later.

Politicians as a group, arguably if not one of the most corrupt, certainly severely compromised in servitude to the ruling elite and their agents, are all in lockstep salivating at the opportunity to grab more power. The mantra being put forth by some is that if rolling back freedoms and rights for everybody can save even one CoV-19 victim then it is worth it. This disingenuous virtue signalling is a disgrace and flies in the face of the ‘mission statement’ touted by politicians (especially Americans) that the sacrifices of countless thousands of soldiers is/was necessary to preserve our freedoms.

They announce every new CoV-19 death in Canada as if the person has died a thousand times over. As was stated in the posting, people die all the time. More misery and death could come from isolation, lack of food as supply lines dry up, and inaccessible services including from healthcare practitioners if the lockdowns continue.

These are difficult times. Will they continue albeit in a different form after this “passes”? Let us not be tricked by the establishment to give up our rights. Without rights there is no liberty. Without liberty there is no security.

#192 cto on 03.23.20 at 8:06 pm

yup!!!
they, (T2 gang) will saturate the over extended real estate junkies with sweet cash!
and create a housing offer for the future debt/ real estate junkies that can’t refused. Here comes the massive moral hazard and helicopter money for the financially reckless! and this summer will bring good times….!!!!
Garth,…
we all know and socialists in Ottawa know that real estate and debt are the last remaining primary drivers of our economy. They clearly have nothing left…nothing!

#193 barnz0rz on 03.23.20 at 8:13 pm

It would be fantastic if we could not shut down the entire economy for this.

But, as has been proven around the world, and here in BC this weekend, people cannot be bothered to do what is asked of them and stay home or stay away from each other when out in public.

So, gotta shut it down. Would be great if there was another way but there’s too many people who can’t handle it.

#194 smitty on 03.23.20 at 8:13 pm

#117 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 6:17 pm

“Still don’t get it…Can’t go for a Sunday drive because they might self contaminate? Utterly retarded.”

You are out for a drive, you need gas. You stop and fill. Maybe run in to the gas station use the washroom. Pick your nose with your free hand. Run out the door, maybe pick up some snacks in bags that many have fondled. Re-enter your car and chow your cheetos and sip your soda.

The modes of transmission are obvious

“No “potential” scenario warrants eviscerating our freedoms and rights. That this isn’t obvious to more people is frightening.”

Quit whining. Your freedoms/rights have barely been curtailed. If you were paying attention to law you would know that emergency acts exist and have these capacities in them. Your ignorance doesn’t allow you to escape that fact. If you knew it and didn’t like it, you should have started a political movement with all those freedoms that you had but now, obviously don’t.

“I’d rather live in a functioning economy with risk of a cold bug than a shut down country with less risk. Besides, we’re all going to get it anyway, right? Isn’t that what we’re being told? Sooo…party on, hope for the best.”

Yes, over several years we will all get it failing a good vaccine. I see realistic numbers as similar to annual flu infection rates maybe higher given the infectiousness. Say, 15% in year one and 15% of remaining in each subsequent year eventually dropping as we grow immune. Social distancing is needed to slow the rate of infection down so our healthcare system doesn’t fail us.

“And you gotta wonder, if locking people down is so effective at stopping the spread of a pathogen, then dare I ask why the same approach hasn’t been taken, for say, HIV (R0 2-5) or the good old season flu (R0 2-3)? What level of risk makes it ok to restrict our rights? Is there a consensus?”

HIV? Mode of transmission is pretty obvious. Easy to self lock down unless you are into hard drugs or random unprotected homosexual male sex.

Influenza? Way less likely to not at all likely to send waves of pneumonia patients to choke our hospitals. Those with COVID-19 are people that would survive if they have access to the care. With your approach (do nothing) they die.

Can I profile you?
Male
28-35 y.o.
lives in AB
Drives dodge RAM
debt to income 350%

#195 Nonplused on 03.23.20 at 8:13 pm

#43 Lost…but not leased on 03.23.20 at 4:36 pm

Spouse works for THE largest private insurer for health etc benefits.

BC office is shutting down due to this bogus pandemic.

——————–

What is scaring the crap out of anybody that has studied virology about this new one is the growth rate, which appears exponential with a doubling time of just a few days. And that is only confirmed cases which requires a test kit. Do it for yourself in Excel. 2x2x4x8x16 etc. Type 2 in cell A1 and then type =A1*2 in cell A2 and then drag that cell down. At cell 33 the number is approximately equal to the world population. That is why everyone is freaking out. Of course transmission rates will slow once half the people have already had it, actually it will slow as the numbers go up so the doubling rate will decline, but for now we are in the early stages of something that is growing very quickly. Comparisons to how many people die of the flu every year are useless, as the flu isn’t doubling every day and most people have some immunity.

You can’t take the number of people who die of the flu every year, which is a disease that has 100% saturation already so it is not growing exponentially, and compare it to the number of people who have died from Covid-19 which is only maybe 2 months old in NA and is very much growing exponentially.

#196 AJ on 03.23.20 at 8:18 pm

The reaction is akin to burning down the house to kill a poisonous spider. Yes, the potential is there for this virus to crush our healthcare system , but we choose to crush everything else also. The bigger issue is governmental power grabs that may be difficult to reverse. People want the government to do everything for them. Giving corrupt and inept officials absolute power is not a good idea .

#197 Nonplused on 03.23.20 at 8:19 pm

#130 ulsterman on 03.23.20 at 6:48 pm

Just for some perspective, even in a country that didn’t react well at the start and became the worst outside of China – Italy – they already have a declining death rate. Also, bear this in mind when you read the headlines. 99.89% of Italians were not infected (or at least not enough to have been tested). 64,000 infections out of 60,300,000 people.

————————

Cheese and crackers people, that i not how you do math.

Fact is they don’t know how many Italians are infected but what they do know is this thing is doubling every few days.

You don’t monitor a pandemic by calculating how much of the population is currently infected. You monitor how fast it is growing. And this one is growing extremely fast.

#198 Dougie MacArthur on 03.23.20 at 8:23 pm

113 crazyfox on 03.23.20 at 6:06 pm

“Can’t help but think that’s directed at me. Its your blog so I’ll end that, running out of time for all that stuff anyway, I still have a job. Just know in passing that China, the true positive success story out of all this if there is one..”

Oh forgot to mention one more positive for China! They positively denied any problem for 2 months!! That gave Covid19 a very positive chance at infecting the whole world!! Positives all around for the Chinese government!!

#199 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 8:23 pm

#183 Wrk.dover on 03.23.20 at 7:50 pm
I know timing markets is frowned on here, but, I don’t chase the, very, very, last, buck. When Trump killed the sillymani of Iran, I got the first and only chance to cash out of Suncor at 52 week high. I waited a day to be certain and lost a Dollar/share. So be it. The rest of you didn’t? Nor did you sell every thing else in the drawer in late February up 35% over three years and US election looming? No wonder you’d rather be sick than stay home. You have never enough money hoard obsession.
————

All I can say is that I’m getting beat like a rented mule. Worst one yet. No fear though, that stuff is a waste of time.

Welcome back.

#200 not 1st on 03.23.20 at 8:25 pm

Trump has more sense than the entire medical community. He has pinned it at a weeks long shutdown, not months. He knows the carnage in society that comes going longer than that.

Watch the egg heads and left try to destroy him over that now. Some doctor on CBC calling for an 18 month full lock down at barrel of a gun. These guys have no clue.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/coronavirus-trump-says-businesses-could-reopen-soon-while-fighting-covid.html

#201 Ronaldo on 03.23.20 at 8:26 pm

A good video with Dr. Norman Swain on the virus situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujhnCibbDMU

#202 Quality what quality? on 03.23.20 at 8:27 pm

Interesting question regarding moving money into better quality stock. I would of thought… RY, BMO, TD, the utilities. ENB, TRP, EMA…..might of fit the bill. However, today everyone of them have had an almost 10% price reduction. Never mind the hair cut they’ve had already…..so if these aren’t quality what is? Obviously they look like deals now, but maybe there still 50% over priced. Seems they can’t hold a steady price. So where’s the value…..at the rate there falling maybe there worthless.

#203 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 8:31 pm

#170 Vinny Virus on 03.23.20 at 7:37 pm

#117 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 6:17 pm

“No “potential” scenario warrants eviscerating our freedoms and rights. That this isn’t obvious to more people is frightening.”

Right on brother! Our freedoms and rights trump spreading this virus to everyone! Screw the social distancing! We have our fundamental right to pass this virus around! Now get out there folks and start spreading!

Why you gotta go and ignore the part where I said “keeps their distance”?

That’s like Trolling 101, son. Transparent to a dawg like me.

#204 Optimist on 03.23.20 at 8:40 pm

“The mortality rate globally is 4.29%”
But this is % of cases that resulted in death (so far), not the % of population that would die if everyone is exposed to the virus.

What % of people exposed to the virus did not get infected or had symptoms that were mild and didn’t get tested?

Diamond Princess cruise sample:
7 of 301 with symptoms died (death rate of 2.3%)
7 of 619 that tested positive died (death rate of 1.1%)
23% of over 70s were infected compared to 13% of under 70s. I assume everyone was exposed at the same rate of 23% (851 out of 3700 were exposed).
7 of 851 estimate that were exposed died (death rate of .82%)
33% of people on the cruise were over 70 compared to 12% of Canadians, adjusted death rate of .3% for Canada (.82%*12%/33%). All deaths were of over 70 years of age.

Canadian mortality rate of .3%, is not worth destroying the economy over.

Anyone else have an estimate of the number of deaths in Canada if this is just allowed to rip?

#205 SW on 03.23.20 at 8:41 pm

The CBC reports that >1 million people returned to Canada last week alone.

By air:
529,407 Canadians
23,615 Permanent residents

By land:
428,724 Canadians
20,243 Permanent residents

By sea:
1,469 Canadians
32 Permanent residents

Let’s hope they all wash their hands!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/three-flight-peru-champagne-1.5506506

My neighbour’s mother is an 80-year old retired nurse. She is now going back to work in a telehealth facility.
“I might not be able to walk the wards, but I can sit at a desk and answer a phone!”

#206 Phylis on 03.23.20 at 8:41 pm

Sometimes I think we should pause critical thinking. Maybe we should work on reading comprehension first.

#207 DON on 03.23.20 at 8:42 pm

pent-up demand will be stunning. That house, haircut, new car, spring outfit, Harley, garden tractor, puppy, kitchen reno or vacation that you’ve lusted for will soon be available. The spending will be epic, despite job losses.
————————————-
The pent up demand for stuff will definitely happen. Real estate – might be in tough for a while. Long term unemployment, consumer confidence and a newly discovered habit of saving will be the new norm for some time to come.

******************

Not sure about ‘how much’ pent up demand when all goes back to the ‘new’ normal. Some people are in a lot of financial crap, already at this point in time.

Consumer spending was already declining before the Virus.

Now there have been layoffs, debt and lack of enough personal savings to weather 1 – 2 month storm.

Then there is the psychology of going through a crisis, especially a health scare. This will affect sentiment to some degree, how can it not? One thing that is clear, we are not prepared to meet any pandemic. As we wait for supplies to be delivered from other countries and that scares the pants of me.

Bills, payments etc are not being forgiven only delayed. Great news eh? Only the big corps get the bail outs folks.

Hearing reports that the mortgage deferral is a case by case matter, if you can get through to someone, that is. Two people I know were told that the deferral doesn’t apply to them. Exactly! what the hell does that mean?

All those lost jobs…will not all come back immediately < demand. Some folks might even save a rainy day fund or at least think about it…before buying a new car etc.

But if I can save anyone's life by self isolating when possible, then I'll do it. Even if it hits my finances. I will not like it but it's the human/dog thing to do.

The virus is overwhelming our health care system, what happens to the normal daily patients and new patients suffering from critical ailments.

If you have your health consider yourself lucky.

If we want to blame someone blame our leadership, media for their actions or lack of. Why did they panic if nothing is that severe?

A healthy economy would have been in a better position to rebound. How healthy was our economy, domestic and global prior to the pandemic? Will it rebound, yes, but how long can affected people tread water? That's the key.

What I do look forward to is more manufacturing in Canada. I HOPE to see more MADE IN CANADA labels.

Stay well and be safe folks.

#208 Ragnoth the understated on 03.23.20 at 8:44 pm

Me and my warlord buddies are dividing up the country as you post. I’m taking the west. Anything east of Winnipeg will be known as Jim’s Land. North of 55° will belong to Carole the Hag. Stay in your homes people. Remain calm. Edicts will appear on a pole in the town square. Sorry, Saskatchewan, you’re going with Bob, and will be known as Bob’s. That’s all we could get out of him before he passed out over the map. It will be okay. Be happy. Sunny days ahead.

#209 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 8:44 pm

#177 John in Mtl on 03.23.20 at 7:45 pm

I don’t get all the people that are yapping about our “lost freedom”, “our rights are being trampled/taken away”, whatever. You all speak as if we are now in a “police state” and these measures are forever.

You don’t get it, I’m guessing, because you probably do nothing anyway and therefore have little need of freedom. Many people would be happier with fewer decisions to make, fewer options to ponder.

But those of us who actually do stuff believe in using our freedoms every single day, and thanking our forefathers for protecting them. The respect is shown by exercising them frequently.

My freedom, even in Greater Khanuckistan, isn’t and should never be subject to anyone’s definition of what is or is not a PUBLIC HEALTH OVERREACTION.

I wear big boys pants, think critically, understand the risks, can wash my own hands, and can decide for myself if risks are worth taking. I’m no danger to anyone and will stay home if sick, Chicken Littles needn’t fear me.

No adult should need or welcome daddy Trudope, mommy Friedland or any other elected or un-elected human deciding for them.

Deeply, sadly, worryingly and truly pathetic.

It is a sad reflection that so many so, and, while remaining silent on so much, choose only to speak up to advocate for the erosion of freedoms rather than their protection.

#210 Treasure Island CEO - 172.24 ounces of Gold within Bicycle Distance on 03.23.20 at 8:46 pm

Don’t matter what the Feds do now. Housing is on course for the mother of all crashes we have been talking about.

I checked on Indeed.ca for jobs – none. Went from 30+ pages of jobs being posted “today” to 4 or 5 total job postings, posted today. Incredible. Complete stand still. And the few job postings that will come up now have 500,000 additional applicants.

Time for the physical stuff within proximity to physically obtaining it. It is going to soar 4x current price.

#211 BC update on 03.23.20 at 8:50 pm

As of 3pm March 23
472 confirmed cases
13 death all but one related to old age home
Drum roll please
100 cured.
We need to focus on cured
Population of BC 5 million you do the percentages.
BC government gives affected people $1,000 payable in MAy, that’s to long, should have just cut the check. Oh well.
Be safe!

#212 Shawn Allen on 03.23.20 at 8:51 pm

People Die All the Time?

Coho just above said:

As was stated in the posting, people die all the time.

********************************
True, but that is always other people. Most of the time we don’t see ourselves or even our loved ones dieing from the same cause.

Each of us will die only once and for probably at least 99% of us we were thinking that day would be years or even many decades away as the case may be.

Now almost everyone is thinking that they or some of their loved ones could be at risk of dying soon from this. And quite possibly a painful death with a shortage of care. If we can lower the odds of that considerably by physical distancing then, by god, that is what we will do.

Whether the fear is justified, it is in any case real and increasing and with no end in sight.

The death of unknown others is a small tiny concern compared to fear of our own early death or that of our loved ones.

#213 Marco on 03.23.20 at 8:52 pm

Spending will not be epic, end of capitalism is pathetic

#214 Bark on 03.23.20 at 8:52 pm

Good luck everybody and stay safe.

#215 People Panic on 03.23.20 at 8:54 pm

One thought crossed me mind today when considering the reaction of the various people still going to the beach to celebrate spring break, going to parks, or otherwise continuing to conduct business as usual. “Well you are going to die someday, so you may as well live life” they say. “It mostly affects the old” they say. Yet they won’t touch a cigarette with a 10 foot poll because it causes cancer, which also mostly affects the old and when it affects the young they are seldom smoker.

I am beginning to believe that the mathematically impossible must be true: More than 50% of the population is below average intelligence. You got a couple Einsteins and Sagans driving the average way up, is what you got. It would be interesting to see how the median compares to the average. I am guessing that as with income, the median is well below the average. And yes I understand the “average” person does not understand what the “median” is. Sorry I lost you folks. It’s on Wikipedia. But you will have a hard time with it. That is why you didn’t pass your statistics course or even take it if you could avoid it.

And now out comes the clowns. Already I am getting ads, posted by Google no less, about how turmeric or perhaps vitamin D can prevent Covid. Really? Why don’t they prevent the common cold or the flu? Or other people saying it is 5G? Really? So why didn’t short wave radio cause a pandemic? Or FM, which should have caused a lot more genetic mutations than shortwave did by this reasoning? Certainly you don’t want to sleep next to a 100,000 watt transmitter, but let’s be reasonable.

This is a viral mutation. Was it in bats, did it come from a lab in China, or did the US unleash it on the world? A useless question at this point. But turmeric does not cure it and 5G did not magically create a viable virus, it would be more likely to kill it, if it did anything at all.

Get your heads on straight people. Yes, rain is often associated with thunder, and they both do have a common cause. But that doesn’t mean every correlation is proof of causation. We know why a thunderstorm produces both rain and lightning. But that doesn’t mean the lightning causes the rain. They go together because they have a common root cause. But even though we often see them together (although not always) that doesn’t mean one causes the other. Correlation is not causation.

Unfortunately too many people on this planet are bound by “associative” thinking because that is all they can do. Oranges and orange paint are similar in their minds. However all progress has been made by people who can do “deductive logic”. Except maybe in the arts. You can’t just say “5G, now Covid, so 5G caused Covid.” It is a coincidence. But do the 50% even know what a coincidence is? I think they don’t. They still figure they can tell when a VLT will pay out.

#216 Gary C on 03.23.20 at 8:59 pm

We can replace Toilet Paper with the Canadian Dollar, 1.45 exchange rate, if your portfolio is down 30% add another 12%.
Are we trading Prices or Psychology in this Ponzi?
I can’t afford to go to Costa Rica, “uh can’t get a flight”
plus Air Canada wants 4000.00 US to fly back to Canada
one way, and were going to bail them out AGAIN.
Eventually Trudeau will run out of money,mine.

#217 Genesis II on 03.23.20 at 9:04 pm

Draconian measures for a fancy-named flu bug – and the sheeple eager and willing to be herded and corralled like…well, sheep.
All that’s missing is the slaughterhouse; oh wait, it’s going to be an economic slaughter.

Karl Marx would have been envious!

This is nothing short of a Coup and the Bankers won again! They get the bailouts (aka ‘liquidity’); we get – wait for it, you know it’s coming – a vaccine! And we’ll be lining up for it, to be ‘saved’.
Not to mention a ‘forced’ vacation.

“Those who don’t learn from the past…”, how does that saying go?

I’m going 50% gold and 50% ‘real’ stuff (commodities).
Inflation is just around the corner and I’m not waiting for the thundering herds. They’re lining up for …

…TOILET PAPER!

#218 n1tro on 03.23.20 at 9:10 pm

#143 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 7:04 pm
#107 Pierre Falardeau on 03.23.20 at 5:58 pm

You were saying that it us ridiculous to sacrifice the economy when the mortality rate globally is “only” 4.29%. If we undo the lockdown measures, then in a few month up to 90% of all humans will have the virus; you realize the death toll globally would be in the many hundreds of millions, do you?

LCBO.

Immediately.

Over 57 million people die every year as a matter of course.

Of these deaths, over 5 million are attributed to anxiety disorders.

Suggest you cool your jets before you become one of them.
——–
Look on the bright side. His carbon footprint would be zero with one less white male patriarch in the world. Take one for the team to honor our saviour Greta.

#219 Greg on 03.23.20 at 9:12 pm

Enjoy yourself…. it’s later than you think! Google it

#220 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.20 at 9:18 pm

So?
April 1st…….
Will Pierre’s son declare the Emergency Bored Measures Act to force Canadian people to stay indoors no matter how nice and sunny this Spring is?

#221 Jessica on 03.23.20 at 9:20 pm

I said I’m buying with cash reserves but that is not true.

Need a choice that says investing with pay cheques, as some of us are still building wealth and investing biweekly over time.

No cash reserves, just a 15k line of credit with $0 balance.

#222 Feds on 03.23.20 at 9:28 pm

Survey is a bit flawed. Yes, I think the market will surpass the recent peaks, but not in 12-18months. No option to say longer than that. Lets say 10 -20 years. Let’s not forget the Nikkei. What brought that on? Oh a property bubble and easy money.

#223 Jay on 03.23.20 at 9:28 pm

At what point do we say enough, there are more issues with shutting off the world that just letting the virus run its course. The flu also kills people. About 500k a year. Were only at 15k or so. Is there a country out there doing nothing to see what happens?

#224 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.20 at 9:28 pm

Well, my 1st CBC 6pm “news” show.
15 minutes of local drivel……followed by

The National!
“Welcome to our BC viewers just joining us….”

My God.
Frank Magazine dubbed the CBC ” The Corpse” years ago…

Now its’ “The Zombie”.

#225 Harold on 03.23.20 at 9:33 pm

For over 5+ years I saved and saved and saved. I was called out all the time because it was all liquid and not in any savings or invested anywhere and I was loaing out due to cost of inflation. Then finally at the beginning of March, I invested. I missed the first huge drop but got a few other ones. Now I don’t have much further to rebuy stocks at these cheap prices. Any advice here would help. I am stuck watching real losses, not just the gains many have seen evaporate over the past 4+ years. And being told to hold because this too shall pass. But what happens when $7k you’ve invested in a single stock of some useless royalty corp is reduced to less than $3k market value and continuing to drop? Now I have no funds to buy any house or cheap real estate either in the coming months.

How many times have we told you not to buy individual stocks? This is why. – Garth

#226 Lost...but not leased on 03.23.20 at 9:36 pm

Garth:

Last chance @ posting?

#227 Shawn on 03.23.20 at 9:38 pm

This is the bottom.

The severity of the virus had been greatly exaggerated by the panic driven media. The US is reopening in 2 weeks. The market will price it in now.

Meanwhile central banks have injected an unprecedented level of stimulus into the global economy.

Buy US technology financials cyclicals & industrials.

Buy the TSX (it hit its 2000 level highs today. 20 years with no price progress.

We’re set up now for a 10 year bull market.

The roaring 2020s.

You heard it here.

#228 Shawn on 03.23.20 at 9:42 pm

And it will be a BUYden victory in October.

He’s good for 2 terms easily.

The Clinton years repeat.

Review your market history.

#229 oh bouy on 03.23.20 at 9:44 pm

@#209 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 8:44 pm
______________________________________

you escape from CAMH ?

#230 Doug t on 03.23.20 at 9:44 pm

I’ve seen the future Canadian currency and it is the Canadian Tire dollar

#231 Phylis on 03.23.20 at 9:44 pm

#215 People Panic on 03.23.20 at 8:54 pm thx for that. seems like i missed a few in my previous request. Akashic pls add SW, CB, marine band… this is taking too long, here is the complete list buried in the chart…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_allocation
Ok, i’ll stop now.

#232 meslippery on 03.23.20 at 9:45 pm

And now we can’t walk in the damn park.
————–
Some of the same people who think walking in the park with a cigarette will kill people around you made this law,
at least this might.

#233 Yolom on 03.23.20 at 9:46 pm

Global death rate 7 in 1000, or 0.7% and that’s all the countries in the world.

You know where billions of people live in high density with no health care.

C19 has a 4.3% death rate, mainly in reasonably advanced economies and is 6x higher and they predict practically everyone will get it.

#234 DON on 03.23.20 at 9:47 pm

#161 the Jaguar on 03.23.20 at 7:27 pm

… If some think it is an over reaction to a crisis I don’t necessarily disagree with that premise, but nonetheless that is the path we are on.

**********

Nicely put Jaguar…I should have read your post before I posted. Especially the words above on our current state. Judging by actions thus far…..yikes!

The political infighting over the stimulus in the US makes things worse each and everyday it is delayed. +

#235 vanisle on 03.23.20 at 9:50 pm

Dude. I’ve been following this blog since it started for the only reason it was an N95 analysis site…and now this!

#236 Barb on 03.23.20 at 9:53 pm

Perhaps I’m just wanting 2020 to end, but it occurred to me that when all “this” is over, everyday people will most assuredly have some demands of ALL governments, not just our own.

No live animal markets, for one.

#237 Yukon Elvis on 03.23.20 at 9:54 pm

#225 Harold on 03.23.20 at 9:33 pm
For over 5+ years I saved and saved and saved. I was called out all the time because it was all liquid and not in any savings or invested anywhere and I was loaing out due to cost of inflation. Then finally at the beginning of March, I invested. I missed the first huge drop but got a few other ones. Now I don’t have much further to rebuy stocks at these cheap prices. Any advice here would help. I am stuck watching real losses, not just the gains many have seen evaporate over the past 4+ years. And being told to hold because this too shall pass. But what happens when $7k you’ve invested in a single stock of some useless royalty corp is reduced to less than $3k market value and continuing to drop? Now I have no funds to buy any house or cheap real estate either in the coming months.
……………………..

Hang in there Bubba. 99% of us are down 30% too, even the balanced portfolio/etf holders. Markets go in the dumper for 6-12 months then recover in 12-24 months. Seen this many times. Relax, stay safe.

#238 mike from mtl on 03.23.20 at 9:57 pm

#122 Penny Henny on 03.23.20 at 6:26 pm

6.5% if you bought today, if you bought before not so good.
BTW seems like the yield is going up every day
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Even better, just wait until the issues slowly start resetting to the now ultra low 5yr rate. As it stands now CPD never made any total return since 2007 – think about that. ZPR (2013) even worse.

I’ve learned my lesson chasing yield, these wealth destroyers, I’m not putting another penny into. If they somehow recover great, otherwise I’ll let them go to a few dollars per share.

Preferreds have been the worst call Garth.

#239 yvr_lurker on 03.23.20 at 9:58 pm

My conern now is how long can we spend in social isolation and basically quarantined to the house? Everything shuttered, and so many unemployed. With huge outlays of $$$ from the Gov’t to defray the costs of all of the furloughed workers and small businesses. If it looks clear in a few months, and then the Gov’t relaxes controls and a second major wave hits, what then? Are we to wait for 18 months until some vaccine is developed, however hasty and imperfect that will be?

I think going a more rural path, growing your own food and tending a small farm (chickens, etc..) may be the way to go if this continues for a few years.

All I can say is &*&*^&*^*& China…. their complete disregard for the hazards of live animal markets is the trigger. You would think they understood something from SARS. I recommend that we have at most a few flights a day to China once this is over. We need social distancing from countries that continue to risk us all.

#240 CC on 03.23.20 at 10:06 pm

Serious question — for those who lean towards treating the coronavirus more as a seasonal flu than a pandemic crisis, fear loss of civil liberties more than the virus itself, and in general think that a more “let it run its course naturally” approach is the best alternative.

How should the Canadian government and Canadian citizens deal with the tens of thousands (or more) health care providers who quite possibly will be putting their health and lives at risk should we take the ‘don’t do much approach’? — effectively letting them feel the full brunt of the peak of the curve.

Should we say ‘tough luck, you chose to get into that field’?

I’m not trying to shame, simply wondering what others think with respect to the above question.

#241 not 1st on 03.23.20 at 10:11 pm

I am sure being calm in the markets is a virtue but losing civil liberties and watching a minority PM trying to destroy our 800 year old parliamentary tradition for a blatant power grab that will have long lasting implications. Taxation with representation is a foundation of our democracy and Trudeau is about to treat it like toilet paper.

Doesn’t that make your blood boil, Garth?

I worry for our kids what they will inherit once that tin pot dictator Trudeau is done with the country.

#242 Dolce Vita on 03.23.20 at 10:11 pm

Garth, permit this…

Here I have been bragging on Twitter (in effect, by innuendo) about how Canada’s infection rate is slower than most countries at the onset of the pandemic.

Hours ago from John Hopkins:

https://i.imgur.com/FfUFEg7.png

FFS Canada, get it together or you will end up like Italia. That means promenading en masse at English Bay or Elbow Park definitely in the category of:

IQ of a gnat. Dumber than a box of rocks, sack of hammers.

-And ya, Mr. Braggart here as to eat crow which I would gladly do than see Canada go the way of Italia.

———————–

Take UK out of the “Club” of no lockdown, no testing. 4 hrs ago Boris announced UK lockdown. British stunned but have not lost their sense of humour (YouTube comments of TV channel video of announcement):

-MY 3 MONTH TRIAL OF 2020 IS ALMOST OVER, AND I WOULD LIKE TO RETURN IT.
-Twos company, threes a fine.
-Let’s stand together, apart.
-Isn’t it funny how Boris’s hair gets more serious the more serious he is about something

Chin UK.

——————-
BLOG AUTHOR:

“To stop the virus, stay home.”

-Some of the best advice you have ever given.

——————

Personal Pieve:

I swear if this thing comes out tomorrow morning & evening again, loudspeakers blaring to stay inside, after 16 bloody days of lockdown, I’m going to hunt it down and SMITE it.

https://i.imgur.com/JMLMDBx.jpg

——————

And yes Garth, we are in Martial Law here in Italia. Do not let it come to that Canada.

#243 Doug in London on 03.23.20 at 10:18 pm

Capitulation? That’s what I thought. I have no idea when the bottom of the stock markets will be but we’re close if it hasn’t already passed by, although don’t expect a big rally anytime soon. A lot of analysts who were recently bullish are becoming more bearish. It’s like a lot of investors are, as the saying goes, waiting for the other shoe to drop. It’s a good time to get more exposure to equities if you aren’t already heavily invested.

#244 Stoph on 03.23.20 at 10:21 pm

Seeing as heard immunity is around 80% for many diseases, I’d guess that this would be close to the infection rate if people carried on business as usual.

Hopefully this all turns out to be a nothingburger. Of course people who then said that the virus was overblown will say they were correct, and people who took it seriously will say that the actions taken did their job and were appropriate.

As for the economy, it’ll bounce back.

#245 NFN_NLN on 03.23.20 at 10:25 pm

> #207 DON on 03.23.20 at 8:42 pm
pent-up demand will be stunning.

Is there a hooker index I can invest in?

#246 Mean Gene on 03.23.20 at 10:31 pm

We are royally in the $hit and no amount of effing toilet paper is going to clean up the mess.

#247 1912 on 03.23.20 at 10:31 pm

. And while the bulk of us won’t get the bug, – Garth

No Garth. We’ll all get it unless vaccinated just like we’ve all gotten the common cold which is also a corona virus.
That’s how it works. The social distancing is just slowing down the spread to see if we can create a vaccine.

If there’s no vaccine then everyone in the world will get it at some point.

#248 45north on 03.23.20 at 10:38 pm

yvr2zrh: Hello from Zurich quarantine

from a financial perspective, it sounds like a bad flu going around and why should the economy be sacrificed to save a few old people who may die anyway. There is some truth to this but people need to understand that in this case, the percentage of people who require hospitalization, although low, results in a very high number of people – – a multiple of what the system could handle. Thus, – as you see in Italy – the system can totally break-down and be running on war-like conditions. Thousands die – many who did not have to. Thus the need to spread this virus out over time. The medical system cannot support a high infection rate and the entire system will break-down without drastic actions.

The next 10-15 days will tell if Canada did enough to “flatten the curve” or if they were not successful and end up with a totally overloaded medical system.

if the medical system breaks down then the social system breaks down too

I pray that we are doing enough

#249 45north on 03.23.20 at 10:41 pm

not 1st: I guess there is no safety living in Nova Scotia either. Martial law comes there too.

you may not have the freedom to go to Toronto for the weekend but there is safety.

#250 BS on 03.23.20 at 10:44 pm

#48 OK, Doomer on 03.23.20 at 4:47 pm

Nancy Pelosi says she’ll only pass a bill to save the American economy and American lives if she can:

Include funding for global warming, gender studies and student loan forgiveness and make electoral changes to permanently rig the voting system in favor of Democrats.

The face of Evil….. Liberalism is long gone in the US and has been replaced by Democratic Fascism.

Just the latest blunder by the the Democrats who are gift wrapping the next election for Trump and the Republican congress.

First it was the bogus impeachment while the virus was spreading out of China. Trump responds by banning flights from China while being called a racist.

Then they go against Trump on approving what looks like the a miracle treatment for the corona virus. We should have results within a week which will prove this drug as a game changer to prevent deaths and hospitalization. Possibly prevent infections.

Dr Vladimir Zelenko a NY based doctor who has treated 350 CV patients with 100% success of keeping them out of hospital. He is now advocating Trump approve the drug as a prophylactic to prevent infections.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4DYMfjFEMk

The US could be open for business in 2 weeks.

Then finally who do people want to vote for? Open border Joe who can’t string a coherent sentence together or Trump.

Joe Biden today bumbling away:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/23/joe-biden-stumbles-over-words-during-coronavirus-speech/

#251 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 03.23.20 at 10:48 pm

There is one over-looked silver lining in this murky cess pool virus. Finally the sunshine is highlighting the pitfalls and defects system-wide in our public health care delivery and infrastructure. Canadians were prepared to overlook the decades known problems endemic in public health care and only now are we facing our overpriced and underwhelming delivery of mediocre care. This bird has come home to roost.

#252 Not Dangerous? Think Again on 03.23.20 at 10:53 pm

B.C. dentist dies after attending dental conference with COVID-19 outbreak

#253 Out of Short - All Equities Now on 03.23.20 at 11:00 pm

100% Equities.

It’s is go season baby!

SBUX
ALGT
BRK.A
LOW
PK

#254 BS on 03.23.20 at 11:01 pm

211 BC update on 03.23.20 at 8:50 pm

As of 3pm March 23
472 confirmed cases
13 death all but one related to old age home
Drum roll please
100 cured.
We need to focus on cured
Population of BC 5 million you do the percentages.
BC government gives affected people $1,000 payable in MAy, that’s to long, should have just cut the check. Oh well.
Be safe!

If they had of put 10% of the resources into keeping the care homes safe as they did shutting down the economy most of those 13 deaths would have been prevented. I spoke with a care home worker where there has been an outbreak and they said workers didn’t start wearing masks until after the outbreak. Outside visitors were aloud in for visits until just a week ago. And even now some workers are not wearing masks. It is not mandatory.

They have learned of most of the infections and deaths on the news as they are told very little. It is really sad how poorly these places are run and considering these are the people this whole shutdown is trying to protect you would think this would be more important than people walking in the park. These are government funded care homes.

#255 Lorne on 03.23.20 at 11:09 pm

#166 binky barnes on 03.23.20 at 7:33 pm

BTW, listening to JT announce earlier today that “enough is enough” (re: the lack of social distancing among some Canadians) was the last straw with this guy for me. If he was attempting to sound prime ministerial he sadly missed the mark.
…………..
I assume you prefer that wonderful politician south of the border…sounds extremely presidential, doesn’t he?

#256 cramar on 03.23.20 at 11:10 pm

Flawed survey. Who designed this? Only preselected answers are available. For example, several questions center around how long to recover. The longest answer presented is 12 months (in one case 12-18 months). The next answer is “Not sure.” I really wish there was a selection “Longer.” I believe it will recover to around former levels, but take at least 2 years. But I’m buying here. Hope I’m right that the bottom is near.

Saw the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis interviewed on 60 Minutes on Sunday. He said the financial resources the FED has is “infinite” to create money to throw at the current problem. It does not take a genius IQ to figure out you cannot create money to infinity without future catastrophe.

#257 al on 03.23.20 at 11:13 pm

If this spreads anything NEAR H1N1, which had an estimated R0 value of about half of COVID-19, the body count worldwide will be in the millions when this is all said and done. Not scaremongering, or panicking, just math. Up to you if you think it’s worth the current fuss.

#258 AisA on 03.23.20 at 11:13 pm

The most difficult part of all of this is having the ability to understand and compare things called numbers. It is mind crushing and soul-deadening for the poor individuals who also understand percentages, and causing of dark thoughts for those who can weigh and measure possibilities and outcomes. I haven’t been this pissed at humanity since 2002.

I hope there is at least some societal whiplash when people realize they have been corralled by the crack of a silent bullwhip. Cows are staring at us right now thinking WTF.

#259 Herb on 03.23.20 at 11:18 pm

There is an interesting Swiss site called “Swiss Propaganda Research”. It keeps track of propaganda wherever it crops up, and questions and deflates it by digging up facts.

Have a look at it’s recent post on Corona, continue to the main article and its updates, check the links supporting what is said, and wonder why we wound up in a panic.

https://swprs.org/corona-media-propaganda/

#260 LouBee on 03.23.20 at 11:21 pm

I appreciate Garth. And I appreciate Dolce Vita. Combine and stir.

#261 Matt on 03.23.20 at 11:37 pm

Garth its difficult to speculate what you are trying to say when you tell people it only kills 5% of people, and most of which are old. It kinda looks like you are saying you believe everything should just continue on business as usual. Almost like that 5% of people is not all that important because like you said, “people die”.

I understand the frustration that would come from someone that works with finical markets everyday I have investments too that took a big a hit however I’m not worried because I’m young and have a 60/40 split. I agree with you this will all be over soon. but I think with al due respect you are sending the wrong message unless I’m misinterpreting what your saying.

you are absolutely right the majority will survive. but this isn’t the point. the point is if business as usual continues the more healthy people can get sick. and the more healthy people that do get sick, (although they will recover) the more chance that the 5% with compromised health will get sick and die. and than all of a sudden that 5% is a big number. Bottom line is that that 5% does matter. Last week a 34 year old died in America with a compromised immune system, and im sure he wasn’t the first. so its not just the wrinklies.

it would be interesting to know the numbers on how much death an economic collapse causes. and then maybe we could put it into perspective. is business as usual during a pandemic better for our overall survival than going on lockdown? its a good question. Brad Pitt said some stat in the “big short” that had to do with job loss increasing deaths in America I believe. I think they were positively correlated.

Anyway so far the reason the economy is on hault is because its the morally right thing to do. everyone has the right to life or so they should. I think its something we should have done before the virus left wuhan. The whole world. I know it sounds dramatic, but the information is out there on pandemics and the threat they cause. Had we had done it then, it would probably be over already. It’s the whole delayed gratification marshmallow test. the entire world failed. accept south Korea and Thai land. they know what’s up .

#262 Spectacle on 03.23.20 at 11:57 pm

Episode 373 – Medical Martial Law 2020 : The Corbett Report

Well, since it’s a financial blog ( not medical) trust this video by Corbett report gets through ok.

Ps:: And any thought about letting this Cornona thing simply run its course, that’s what they call Homicide/Genocide.

#263 Paul on 03.23.20 at 11:57 pm

4) Will markets and prices eventually recover to January 2020 levels?

5) How long will this recovery take?
– 1 Month
– 3 Months
– 6 Months
– 12 Months
– 12-18 Months
– Not Sure

Garth, in your post you mention the Dow index dropped 56% from peak during the Financial Crisis, but then in the poll the maximum timeframe you provide for recovery is 12-18 months.

Looking at the Financial Crisis, it took the Dow over 5 years from the Oct 2007 peak to return to that level (Feb 2013). Even measuring from when the index bottomed out it took 4 years (Feb 2009).

Is there really reason to believe that it will be any different this time? Do you have an explanation as to why the recovery should happen so much faster now, especially since at the moment things are getting worse, not better, and it’s much less clear what can be done to solve the problem?

#264 Hiding on the Backstreets on 03.24.20 at 12:08 am

Finally, a drop down box with Ontario at the top, instead of having to scroll down alphabetically through a bunch of places. Every Canadian Web form should have Ontario first. By far the most frequently selected.

#265 Spectacle on 03.24.20 at 12:10 am

In other news,
Elon Musk just successfully delivered 1000 Ventilators to California.

More than I did today……..or GM, Or Ford, or Fiat……

#266 someVanDude on 03.24.20 at 12:40 am

Hey Garth. Thanks for the analysis.
As all humans sit somewhere on the empathy bell curve, it can be easier said than done to truly analyse a situation objectively. We also tend to be reactionary and short-term focused. I agree, there are some large social and economic factors to deal with.

However, I do open up the following question to the blog that I have not heard answered:
– ** For those that believe we should not be implementing any restrictions, how do we deal with the massive influx of sick to the healthcare system? **

I genuinely would love to hear a well thought through answer to this. How would you address a room of doctors and frontline responders? In the answers, please be aware of the Hippocratic Oath which includes lines like: “I will remember that I do not treat a fever chart, a cancerous growth, but a sick human being, whose illness may affect the person’s family and economic stability. My responsibility includes these related problems, if I am to care adequately for the sick.” “I will prevent disease whenever I can, for prevention is preferable to cure.”

#267 Frustrated Kiwi on 03.24.20 at 12:49 am

NZ goes into full lockdown with borders closed tomorrow at midnight for four weeks. Trying for an “eliminate” strategy:
https://covid19.govt.nz/government-actions/covid-19-alert-system/

I think the thing Garth and other miss is how infectious this virus is – it has an R0 of over 2. With nothing done, best estimates are 40%-80% of us infected. The statement “while the bulk of us won’t get the bug” is only true if we do something to contain it. Business as usual (i.e., what we do for the flu) would be a lot of deaths (since it’s also 10-30 times more deadly than the flu).

#268 Not So New guy on 03.24.20 at 1:31 am

You need to start charting comments on this blog to market corrections/bubbles. Seriously. When people fear they start verbalizing. They will do it in a place they feel they can get support and comfort. They do it where they think they can find answers. So with economic fear they seek out an economic blog

When they are complacent and things are going well they do other things.

I’ll bet there is a strong correlation between peak comments here and market bottoms

#269 ulsterman on 03.24.20 at 1:36 am

Loonie Doctor: “I do wonder if a more balanced medical/economic approach would be to isolate those at high risk of hospitalization (old or immunocompromised) while the rest of the herd builds immunity that will ultimately protect them.”

I thought the same thing but assumed i must be missing something being a layman. Almost all the vulnerable people are of retirement age and most don’t have to work – they’ll miss nothing from isolation bar mental engagement. Quarantine them and allow younger, healthy people to work and catch the virus naturally. Apparently 80% don’t even know they’ve had it, thinking it to be a winter cold or maybe a flu. That would suggest that the workforce would only be moderately impacted by slightly higher than average winter absenteeism – right? With the economy continue to hum along, use the tax revenues or some of the TRILLIONS now being printed and handed out to offer home delivery of groceries, house cleaning, and in-house doctor visits to the vulnerable people quarantined in their homes. I’m sure there’s some flaw to this thinking, so please set me straight.

#270 bigblockpower on 03.24.20 at 1:49 am

here it is people. Listen up!
it doesn’t matter what your political ideology is, what your sexual orientation is, who you identify as..
Prior to Covid-19, these were the facts of Canada as a population and as a country:
1) On a per-capita basis the government of Canada is one of the most indebted nations in the world.
2) the population of Canada holds the most debt in the world.
3)The province of Ontario is the most indebted non-sovereign entity in the world.
4) Canadians are the most taxed people in the Western World when you add provincial and municipal, GST, etc, etc, etc.
5) Horrible demographics.
6) Labor participation rate comparable to the great Depression.
7) Radical leftist Federal Government making the NDP look like an OHL farm team destroying and dividing the country
8) Donald Trump screwed Canada by giving American businesses the ability to write down capital purchases 100% in the first year. One economist said that would cost Canada 600,000 job in the next 5 to 10 years.
Did the CBC cover that one???? Ohhh noooo they didn’t..
Covid-19 was just the tipping point.

Now:
1) Loonie is in free-fall
2) Feds want emergency taxation powers (bank bail-in anyone?)
3) Canada’s biggest oil companies are getting their corporate bonds downgraded from BBB to junk status.
They’re done.

When this is all over with in a couple of months, Canada will be in a depression. it starts now.
Bill Morneau wants emergency taxation powers now.

Covid-19 is real, its scary and its spreading and its super convenient right now for the federal Government.
But it will pass.. But the debt won’t..

The inflation will be off-the-charts. Food up 25%. The country will circle the drain in an deflationary spiral. Houses down, used cars down, everything down.
And not 10%..

Taxes won’t go down though… will they? they gonna go up!

So. Who are you gonna blame now? Trump? the Albertans? The Conservatives??
Who are you gonna blame when the Liberals raise taxes again or better yet, empty your RRSP account?

Canadians = Most morally superior, most self-entitled people on the planet.
I’ve been around the planet.

That’s gonna change though…

As always Garth, your blog is awesome. Please do cover the, what is it? War Measures Act? People need to know.

Good luck to all.

#271 Delia Vernon on 03.24.20 at 2:21 am

The CRA snuck in a dirty word to its Emergency Support qualification when it comes, “attestation” . So, if you are laid off due to mass closures and have more than 10 cents in the bank you will not qualify for any of the announced aid plans. That’s all been a ‘smoke blown up your ass’ campaign. Thank your local media for not explaining that.

Attestation means, like when applying for welfare, that you make a legally binding statement have no income and no assets. Zero Assets, that includes your entire net worth has to be zero. The AID money will only flow to those already on a government program, like subsidized housing, unionized EI eligible. Hiding your car behind Grandma’s house could get you jail time.Youll be expected to sell down everything and prove youve done so. That may apply to any expensive pure bred dogs you own and your Pokemon Card collection. They want you to crawl in on bleeding begging hands.

Any of you who lost your job and hoped for rent relief, suck it, you get nothing. The hundreds of thousands of Contract and Gig workers are SOL until you can prove to the CRA that you have SFA to your name. And by the way, you’ll be expected to ‘attest’ every two weeks to make sure you stay in the extreme poverty zone.

Only persons in a demographic likely to vote Liberal will see anything. Are you surprised? If you’re in a union or have EI weeks owed or qualify for government assistance due to your pending citizenship status, that’s another matter, you’re gold. This could be the greatest recession ever. Because when the Gigsters and Contractors are all sleeping out doors or in their cars the situation won’t look very rosy.

I would have talked about Trudeau’s overnight power grab towards dictatorship, but hes back off a tad. Maybe we should have kept Scheer after all. It seems he’s grown a pair. After all he did win the most votes, just not the most seats, and who could with the seats controlling Parliament tightly clustered around the needy semi circle of ridings around Toronto. Personally I think we need a new country. I’m all for cutting Trudeau out of the picture and Quebec can go with him.

Good luck to my fellow self employed Canadians. Be tough, it’s about to get a lot worse. And if you’re being forced to sell out at the very bottom to qualify for the government handout, I pity you.

#272 BrianT on 03.24.20 at 2:38 am

The stupidity of the population is literally mind boggling. Currently in Canada many people DIE every week-99.9% of those deaths are unrelated to Wuhan flu-if you went by the spin of the MSM and guv nothing can hurt you but this virus-none of those 99.9% of deaths unrelated to this event actually happened or matter. People talk of the hospitals being “overwhelmed”-by a vrus that has killed a total of 24 people out of a population of 38.8 million! This is a financial blog and many can’t even grasp the math. Jeez.

#273 Toronto_CA on 03.24.20 at 5:59 am

I mean, I see what many believe and we should definitely do an attempt to flatten the curve initially to allow health services to ramp up.

But the long term socio-economic damage of this shut down is not something we want. Civil unrest, suicides, domestic abuse, substance abuse…these things are all as bad as eldery and at-risk people dying/suffering in a hospital. But they impact a much larger group of the population.

Hunger and malaria kill hundreds of thousands a year, we aren’t shutting down every economy to stop those, are we? US gun violence? Nope.

I am not sure we should let doctors or scientists dictate that the shut downs be allowed long enough to do more systemic, permanent damage to the economic health than has already been done. End the lockdowns by May.

If we must spend hundreds of billions/trillions, let it be on healthcare and put everyone back to work, and give us civil liberties back.

#274 ts on 03.24.20 at 6:19 am

“The spending will be epic, despite job losses.”

How is this possible?

Wait and see. – Garth

#275 Shut Down It All Down on 03.24.20 at 6:27 am

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

2 of the 24 deceased didn’t even die in Canada (we’re also counting Canadians dying abroad apparently) and 1, count’em 1 serious case according to the link above.

Shut everything down, set the oceans on fire, dominate all media with dread and fear, call out the army, obliterate the economy. Seems reasonable enough.

#276 Steven Rowlandson on 03.24.20 at 6:30 am

When I first got into stair building my employer and I agreed that one got out of life according to what one put into it. It seemed reasonable at the time. In politics we find that the suffering of the few results in the inconvenience or even punishment for the many except with real estate due to financial interests. In the current situation it is reasonable to state that there is more going on than fighting a virus.

#277 Wrk.dover on 03.24.20 at 6:39 am

#199 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 8:23 pm

Welcome Back

————————————————-

Thank you. Get off my lawn.

I just came back to watch Garth stick handle a swan named Medusa. When the cliff dwellers get cabin fever, this comment section is going to be too noisy for me after living in self isolation since we last chatted.

It has been bliss, the man in the mirror treats me kindly!

#278 MF on 03.24.20 at 6:57 am

Looks like we have two camps:

1) The virus is serious and the threat is real. Temporarily shutting down society to give people who are at risk (around 50%) of the population, including those we love, have a chance. This is because our society values life.

2) The virus is overblown. The threat has been exploited by politicians to do *insert conspiracy theory*. Temporarily shutting down society is not the right thing to do because my portfolio is down. The people at risk of dying will die anyways from the flu and are of no value. Money is all I care about.

What camp do you belong in?

MF

Incorrect. Shutting society down is not a portfolio issue. Millions lose their jobs, the ability to feed their families, to save to educate their kids, advance their careers, keep their businesses and employees afloat and maintain their homes. This also causes massive personal financial stress layered upon social and pandemic stress. Additionally, replacing the private sector economy with government money will balloon deficits, hobble governments’ ability to be progressive in the future and end up taxing future generations as never before. All this for a virus from which 96% recover and 80% have mild symptoms. I think less of you for the above comment. – Garth

#279 AK on 03.24.20 at 7:17 am

I didn’t get a chance to vote.

I don’t hoard. So, my answer is obvious.

#280 John in Mtl on 03.24.20 at 7:23 am

@#209 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 8:44 pm

Yeah, right, Trumpster. You took my words OUT OF CONTEXT by not quoting the reason I said them.

I pity you if you live in a large city and take no simple suitable precautions. Go back to playing with your guns; try playing Russian Roulette with yourself.

#281 Semi retired on 03.24.20 at 7:44 am

Not to worry business as usual Doug to the rescue.
Nothing is really shut down, with this list why shut anything.

https://torontosun.com/news/provincial/the-ontario-governments-list-of-essential-businesses

#282 maxx on 03.24.20 at 7:48 am

Pent up demand…….people might just realize what a pile of useless crapola most of the stuff being produced really is.

#283 OK, Doomer on 03.24.20 at 7:56 am

So Trudeau wants to shut down parliament in this crisis and become Dictator? Why??

Because he can’t “communicate” with MP’s???

We have this thing called the internet. Use it.

Introduce legislation to allow internet voting by MP’s until December 31, 2021.

That is far less dangerous to Canada than what T2 is proposing. Unless, of course T2 does not actually trust Canadians.

Ok, Mills?

#284 Captain Morgan on ice on 03.24.20 at 8:04 am

BANNED

#285 Vaping and COVID on 03.24.20 at 8:11 am

There’s starting to be a spike in young people in the U.S. who are reacting very poorly to COVID.

It begs the question: Are they Vapers???

#286 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.20 at 8:16 am

@# 277 MF

I thought less of you BEFORE you commented…..

:)

#287 Wrk.dover on 03.24.20 at 8:17 am

printing money is easier than printing masks…..

#288 fancy_pants on 03.24.20 at 8:18 am

I want to express a big thank you Garth for your time and effort to this blog day in and day out. And please extend that thanks to Dorothy and Bandit as well. Blessings.
On a side note, curious minds wonder at what point will the economic fallout indirectly do more damage to more people than the virus itself?

#289 under the radar on 03.24.20 at 8:20 am

Odd , that people who are paid the least and have almost no benefits become essential in a times of crisis.

#290 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.20 at 8:34 am

Looks like we have two scenarios:

1)The virus is killing 1% of the population and the govt is spending hundreds of billions of dollars rendering the economy for all of us into generations of financial ruin…

2) The virus is killing 2% of the population and the govt is spending hundreds of billions of dollars rendering the economy for all of us into generations of financial ruin…

Either way.
How will the govt get more money to pay for its financially ruinous policies to pay for more rainbow sidewalks?
Taxes, taxes, and more taxes.
And where will all the large and small business owners go?
Anywhere but here.
Where business is over regulated, overtaxed and overburdened with rules and regs from the nanny state.

Taxes taxes taxes…..yep, that’ll fix everything……

#291 Renter's Revenge! on 03.24.20 at 8:36 am

#238 mike from mtl on 03.23.20 at 9:57 pm
Preferreds have been the worst call Garth.

========

Not defending preferreds or Garth’s call, but had interest rates gone up instead of down it would have been a different story (people probably would have been complaining that bonds suck instead, for example). See the 1940’s to 70’s.

As I understand it, the direction of interest rates is hard to predict.

The weird thing is, all the issues either mature or must be redeemed at par value. So they can’t stay down forever. Maybe one day (30 years from now?), CPD will return to it’s original value. I don’t know.

#292 Jager on 03.24.20 at 9:00 am

China in the crosshairs. A sinking economy potentiates revolution…

U.S. Senator Josh Holley

https://mobile.twitter.com/SenHawleyPress/status/1242192042375159808

https://mobile.twitter.com/SenHawleyPress/status/1240665173607821314

#293 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.24.20 at 9:06 am

#209 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 8:44 pm sez:

“#177 John in Mtl on 03.23.20 at 7:45 pm

I don’t get all the people that are yapping about our “lost freedom”, “our rights are being trampled/taken away”, whatever. You all speak as if we are now in a “police state” and these measures are forever.

You don’t get it, I’m guessing, because you probably do nothing anyway and therefore have little need of freedom. Many people would be happier with fewer decisions to make, fewer options to ponder.

But those of us who actually do stuff believe in using our freedoms every single day, and thanking our forefathers for protecting them. The respect is shown by exercising them frequently.

My freedom, even in Greater Khanuckistan, isn’t and should never be subject to anyone’s definition of what is or is not a PUBLIC HEALTH OVERREACTION.

I wear big boys pants, think critically, understand the risks, can wash my own hands, and can decide for myself if risks are worth taking. I’m no danger to anyone and will stay home if sick, Chicken Littles needn’t fear me.

No adult should need or welcome daddy Trudope, mommy Friedland or any other elected or un-elected human deciding for them.

Deeply, sadly, worryingly and truly pathetic.

It is a sad reflection that so many so, and, while remaining silent on so much, choose only to speak up to advocate for the erosion of freedoms rather than their protection.”
——————————————————–
Epic post, man. This is exactly how a rational adult thinks. Unfortunately it seems we don’t have many of those in this country. What we do have is a bunch of docile sheep who wait for the shepherd to take care of them.

Eventually those sheep get sheared.

#294 Dharma Bum on 03.24.20 at 9:10 am

Here’s a little song I wrote (well, parodied, actually). Sing it to the tune of Tom Petty’s “Free Falling”.

(In case you’ve been living under a rock for the last 40 years, here’s the tune: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Drr1gODK094)

(Instrumental Intro)

It’s a virus, they call it COVID-19,
It’s a bad one, say it’s gonna kill us all
Comes from China, from the guts of a wet bat
Kills the old folks, and the people at the mall

And it’s a long day, stuck in isolation
There ain’t nuthin’, good on my TV
And I’m a bad boy, ’cause I don’t even shower
I’m a bad boy, for smokin’ too much weed

Now my stocks are free…
Free fallin’
Yeah my stocks are free…
Free fallin’

Financial gurus, scramblin’ for some answers
Are nowhere, nowhere to be found
And the investors, are shaking like scared rabbits
While their portfolios, are run into the ground

And my stocks are free…
Free fallin’
Yeah my stocks are free
Free fallin’

Free fallin’, yah they’re
Free fallin’
Free fallin’, yah they’re
Free fallin

I wanna leave home, go and buy some toilet paper
I wanna buy me, some rice and some beans
I’m gonna go to, Walmart and Costco
But they’re empty, no asswipe to be seen

Now my stocks are free…
Free fallin’
Yeah they’re free…
Free fallin’

(Repeat and fade)

#295 MF on 03.24.20 at 9:12 am

#285 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.20 at 8

Lol

Hug?

I just want to get through this without too much suffering. Im worried about my BOOMER parents and don’t really care what happens to my portfolio.

This goes for both fear of the virus itself, and the stress it’s causing them.

MF

#296 Toronto_CA on 03.24.20 at 9:15 am

#277 MF on 03.24.20 at 6:57 am

Do you REALLY not understand the damage having 20-30% unemployment and locking people in their homes will do to the mental and physical health of the hundreds of millions of people this is?

I could give two shites about my portfolio; it will come back as it always does given enough time. What I do care about are hundreds of millions/billions of people out of work and locked away for 18 months if you follow what would be “best” for the curbing of the virus at the expense of all else.

Give your head a shake. It’s not about money.

#297 binky barnes on 03.24.20 at 9:27 am

BTW, listening to JT announce earlier today that “enough is enough” (re: the lack of social distancing among some Canadians) was the last straw with this guy for me. If he was attempting to sound prime ministerial he sadly missed the mark.
…………..
I assume you prefer that wonderful politician south of the border…sounds extremely presidential, doesn’t he?

………………….

Why would you assume that from my comment?

#298 John in Mtl on 03.24.20 at 9:29 am

@ #292 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.24.20 at 9:06 am

There goes another dude that has taken my words out of context.

What part of “Flattening the curve” do you not understand?

Yeah, math is hard. So is patience and tough decisions.

I suggest you and Attrition take a trip to New-York at the moment, go mingle around.

On the flip side: soon, there will have to be painfully hard choices and decisions made… of course we will have to restart everyday life and accept a certain number of casualties; if we don’t do that, our whole society/societies will fall apart and we will fall into a depression.

I’m quite familiar with the two approaches to dealing with this: 1- try to contain and flatten the curve as long as possible (don’t make the cure worse than the disease); and 2- let it run its course to develop herd immunity because that is possible with this pathogen.

#299 not 1st on 03.24.20 at 9:29 am

Garth should have taken his poll to some old folks homes.

Do you approve of us torpedoing the economy for your grandchildren in order to save more of your age?

I think you will find that generation to be about sacrifice for the greater good than anyone else. They would tell you to be careful cautious take precautions but go live your life without fear.

And they would tell teacher daddy Trudeau and silver spoon Morneau to frack off.

#300 Yuus bin Haad on 03.24.20 at 9:38 am

Ever get the feeling that Robert De Niro is watching you? Weird.

#301 MF on 03.24.20 at 9:47 am

#296 Toronto_CA on 03.24.20 at 9:15 am

Come on man.

You should change your name to TorontoHyperbole.

We arent locking down the country for 12-18 months. We are simply buying time so the medical system will
Be able to handle the onslaught of patients coming. A few weeks. Calm down.

We are all going to get this, and it is not going to be “just a cough” for everyone. We have to accept it.

1) the economy will bounce back. Take the time to read a book or go for a walk with your dog.

2) the economy was on loose footing before the pandemic. The pandemic is doing a good job of highlighting how tenuous the whole system was. Rates already too low, debt too high….these issues were present before. If it wasnt the pandemic lockdown it would have been something else.

MF

#302 BllyBob on 03.24.20 at 9:56 am

#278 MF on 03.24.20 at 6:57 am
Looks like we have two camps:

1) The virus is serious and the threat is real. Temporarily shutting down society to give people who are at risk (around 50%) of the population, including those we love, have a chance. This is because our society values life.

2) The virus is overblown. The threat has been exploited by politicians to do *insert conspiracy theory*. Temporarily shutting down society is not the right thing to do because my portfolio is down. The people at risk of dying will die anyways from the flu and are of no value. Money is all I care about.

What camp do you belong in?

MF

==================================================

It’s framing everything in simplistic binary terms like this (black/white, right/left, Liberal/Conservative, Democrat/Republican etc etc) that has led to the complete polarization of society. Aided by social media algorithms to reinforce one’s own views as “correct”.

I’m not saying I’m surprised, given the neediness of most people for everything to be simple and make “sense” to their low IQ, low information selves. The quoted post should be Exhibit A as an illustration. It’s got it all: straw man arguments, virtue signalling, false stats…

Only the truly obtuse would claim that resisting the shutdown of the world’s economy is solely due to prioritizing “profits over people”. Only a fool could believe that economics are not intricately linked to life and death.

Glad Garth responded in depth, far better than I could.

#303 Herb on 03.24.20 at 9:56 am

Ran across an interesting interpretation on the internet yesterday –

The Fed is ready to pump $1,500B (plus “whatever it takes”) to help Wall St. The White House is ready to pump $250B into the Corona crisis to help the population. That is a ratio of 600:1.

Which threat has priority for the USA?

Source: TM 55:10 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YomCca4FF9Q&feature=em-uploademail

#304 IHCTD9 on 03.24.20 at 10:04 am

#293 Dharma Bum on 03.24.20 at 9:10 am
___

Haha, very good!

“You Don’t Know How It Feels (to be broke)”

Let me run dutch with you tonight
I’ll pay for half a moonlight ride
I’m not the rich Man I used to be
Now, she don’t give a damn for me

But let me get to the point, I’m as broke as Detroit
Not financially endowed, I’m too poor to be proud
You don’t know how it feels
You don’t know how it feels to be broke

Easy come, easy go
Some grow rich, some just blow
I woke up in between
Cat food meals, and retirement dreams

So let’s get to the point, I’m as broke as Detroit
Let’s bug out down the road
To the bunker, I gotta go
And you don’t know how it feels
You don’t know how it feels to be broke

My old man bought some stock
He’s still shaking from the shock
Think of me what you will
Trudeau will have to foot the bill

So let’s get to the point, I’m as broke as Detroit
And let’s bug out down the road
To the bunker, I gotta go
And you don’t know how it feels
No, you don’t know how it feels to be broke.

#305 BillyBob on 03.24.20 at 10:05 am

#303 Herb on 03.24.20 at 9:56 am
Ran across an interesting interpretation on the internet yesterday –

The Fed is ready to pump $1,500B (plus “whatever it takes”) to help Wall St. The White House is ready to pump $250B into the Corona crisis to help the population. That is a ratio of 600:1.

Which threat has priority for the USA?

Source: TM 55:10 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YomCca4FF9Q&feature=em-uploademail

==================================================

This was just covered. Threats to “Wall Street” and threats to “The Population” are not unrelated!

Rest assured if “Wall Street” (whatever you think that means?) collapsed, “The Population” would suffer enormously. Have you ever even heard of The Great Depression?

Does THAT help answer your question about priorities?

#306 calgary rip off on 03.24.20 at 10:20 am

The reality is the lack of clarity of this virus. 12% require help with ventilation. 5% need serious help.

The reality is that people will die. The percentage is unclear because it is unclear how individuals will respond. According to Wuhan data type O persons fare the best. This study was not peer reviewed.

What is clear that economic models need to be reviewed after this Chinese virus. This has happened twice already. Once with Sars and now with Covid 2. Make no mistake these viruses and illnesses keep coming out of China. Not all Chinese are stupid however wet markets are. The Chinese have a PR nightmare on their hands. They also are lucky that absolute force is not used on their unhygienic practices as in radioactivity for years.

As a healthcare worker I am not pleased how everything was handled nor am I happy with people’s incessant “need” to travel and spread things around. The idiot travelers are responsible for this one.

#307 TurnerNation on 03.24.20 at 10:21 am

Here is comes. Biznow.com reporting that AMAZON is already buying up failed grocery stores and seeking more in the New York area.
I’ve been saying for a long time these tech giants are really there for a new world order. It’s coming. UBI and AMZN.

#308 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 10:23 am

Re: Elon Musk and ventilators

The guy just gets things done even though he’s skeptical of the Corvid crisis. Bet on people who get things done.

#309 Jager on 03.24.20 at 10:25 am

Government crypto has arrived! Will Btc, Eth, Xrp etc. now be outlawed?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbrett/2020/03/23/new-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-introduces-digital-dollar-and-digital-dollar-wallets/amp/?fbclid=IwAR27fhQSOfFV36Xq2-VVWVi_XB75Ehk0NuG1M8vLlpayo9vN0iZ-5yMQTks&__twitter_impression=true

#310 the Jaguar on 03.24.20 at 10:30 am

@#234 DON on 03.23.20 at 9:47 pm
Especially the words above on our current state. Judging by actions thus far…..yikes!

The political infighting over the stimulus in the US makes things worse each and everyday it is delayed. +
——————–
I just wish I could silence the sceptic in me about this whole mess. I can’t shake the feeling that a layer of people ( the Globalist elites) jumped out of the markets just in time, and will buy back in at the appropriate moment and ‘clean up’ on profits. It feels ‘staged’. The markets will come back of course, but I find it hard to believe to the level they were at given the overvaluation. They were deliberately ‘pumped up’.
I can only see this helping Trump. He’s been a proponent of bringing home manufacturing jobs from overseas or taxing companies like Apple that operate outside of the american borders but wish to claim US based tax advantages/loopholes. Mistrust and resentment of China over this period can only help that premise. If cheap labour was the reason jobs went overseas it might now be cured by robotics and lower but stable wages on the north american continent where indicated. The next wake up call will be the realization that we are running out of oil and natural gas. Time to stop all these massive ships loaded with containers coming from gazillions of miles across the ocean and live smaller more meaningful lives here in north american. Greta might like that as it would clean up the environment a little, and fewer containers means fewer opioids and other drugs. Bring all the military and troops back from the middle east, etc as well. Turn them loose on the drug cartels and guarding the southern US border from those same cartels.
If the hipsters want to live in small glass boxes in big cities good luck to them. Growing a little of ones own food in rural/small town environment is more appealing to me. It will be interesting to see how a city like Toronto is impacted after this crisis given the large numbers of people who are employed in some aspect of financial services. Their jobs were already under threat.
Enough said.

#311 Doug t on 03.24.20 at 10:32 am

The hand shake is toast

#312 Pent up demand on 03.24.20 at 10:34 am

Been thinking about this
I originally disagreed about pent up demand.
But a thought struck me, with all this money coming down the pipe BC gives $1,000 to each person laid off, the feds are giving money. Now let’s assume this is all over by May and everyone goes back to work
Now they have jobs and free money
Ka-pow
And stocks are roaring this morning
Is this a dead cat bounce?
Have a great day!

#313 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 10:40 am

#209 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 8:44 pm

——————-

Well said. Unfortunately, you and I are outnumbered by the more vociferous. Not necessarily by actual number of people who think similarly, but non-panickers are less concerned about constantly telling the world.

#314 R on 03.24.20 at 10:40 am

303:
1500/250=6
Buy a better calculator

#315 Toronto_CA on 03.24.20 at 10:44 am

#296 Toronto_CA on 03.24.20 at 9:15 am

Come on man.

You should change your name to TorontoHyperbole.

____

Says the guy who gave a complete false dichotomy. You’re backfooting. I totally agree with a few weeks of this. I just don’t agree it should go on for months.

And yes, there are people (scientists) who are calling for up to 18 months of lockdowns and social distancing:

https://time.com/5804555/coronavirus-lockdown-uk/
“Tough Measures to Stem the Coronavirus Outbreak Could Be in Place for 18 Months, Scientists Say”
“But those researchers also gave a troubling warning for countries around the world implementing lockdown measures: in order to be effective, they would need to last 12 to 18 months.”

It is to those people I say, no. We cannot destroy the future of the young and healthy for the sake of containing this virus. It is not worth it.

#316 Herb on 03.24.20 at 10:50 am

#305 BillyBob,

don’t be naive. Also, I stopped engaging in pissing contests on this site three years ago.

#317 jess on 03.24.20 at 10:56 am

The 3 doors : From non believers to believers .
Will death bring the turning before this happens.These believers who knock on Jesus door…..> the senators door then the hospital door. [email protected]#$

contrast and compare:

these people will be “toast” pastor spell and his mega church or the “culling”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/politics/state-of-play-coronavirus-response/index.html
Louisiana governor says his state has the fastest growth rate of coronavirus cases in the world
Hollie Silverman

By Hollie Silverman, CNN
https://academicmatters.ca/harpers-attack-on-science-no-science-no-evidence-no-truth-no-democracy/

#318 Herb on 03.24.20 at 11:01 am

#314 R,

you’re absolutely right. The White House only promised $2.5B, which should fix the math. I apologize.

#319 Attrition on 03.24.20 at 11:02 am

#280 John in Mtl on 03.24.20 at 7:23 am

Go back to playing with your guns; try playing Russian Roulette with yourself.

Ouch. You advocate for protecting liberty, freedom of choice, the individual’s right to take calculated risks…and you get told play with guns and shoot yourself in the head.

A true gentleman liberal, I see.

#194 smitty on 03.23.20 at 8:13 pm

Quit whining. Your freedoms/rights have barely been curtailed. If you were paying attention to law you would know that emergency acts exist and have these capacities in them. Your ignorance doesn’t allow you to escape that fact.

Emergencies acts are for emergencies, not potentialities. You want to explain the emergency in this? When the US goes back to work in a week or so, despite the virus still being a thing, you might clue in.

And the time to speak up about the curtailment of our rights is before they’ve been curtailed, or are you ignorant of history?

Can I profile you?

I guess so, as long as you’re not planning in using it on your Grinder profile…

Male
Yup. My steadfast advocacy of logic over emotion makes this pretty obvious.

28-35 y.o.
Wrong. Five-0.

lives in AB
Wrong. Left Coast, though you compliment the fine ppl of Alta.

Drives dodge RAM
Uncanny, but for the model: a Durango. Over 300xxx on the odo, paid $2k, use it to haul kids, camp kit, and toys. The thing is a paid-for workhorse that runs on depreciation and saved car loan interest.

debt to income 350%
Epic fail. Zero consumer debt. Small mortgage on a large property with a small, old house. Barely a 6 figure portfolio that is admittedly very poorly self-managed despite my occasional bragging. Dare I mention a DB pension, too?

This game could go and on – I’m one of my favourite topics, but probably not everyone’s – so let’s wrap it up.

#320 NoName on 03.24.20 at 11:03 am

#265 Spectacle on 03.24.20 at 12:10 am
In other news,
Elon Musk just successfully delivered 1000 Ventilators to California.

Are ventilators “real” and new, or just knock offs, there are plenty diy ventilators on internet, I would rather take chance with one made by this dude.

https://youtu.be/N1OFMZDNKvU

https://mobile.twitter.com/lorakolodny/status/1242284414630912000

#321 Sean on 03.24.20 at 11:04 am

Nice, you sound like you’re on the same page as Trump.

In all seriousness did we go too far? I’m not sure. Medics in Italy have to choose who gets the ventilator. If the economy goes though, more people will suffer than the virus. Who is going to make the call?

#322 Attrition on 03.24.20 at 11:12 am

#313 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 10:40 am

#209 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 8:44 pm

——————-

Well said. Unfortunately, you and I are outnumbered by the more vociferous. Not necessarily by actual number of people who think similarly, but non-panickers are less concerned about constantly telling the world.

Indeed we are. Vastly outnumbered and also vilified. I wonder what it is about free/critical thinkers that so many find threatening? Wolves among sheep, I suppose.

#293 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.24.20 at 9:06 am

#209 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 8:44 pm sez:

——————————————————–
Epic post, man. This is exactly how a rational adult thinks. Unfortunately it seems we don’t have many of those in this country. What we do have is a bunch of docile sheep who wait for the shepherd to take care of them.

Eventually those sheep get sheared.

Ha, docile indeed. If I stop and think about it, the only fear I have is that they’ll shear us too but I guess a bit of fear keeps you nimble. And liquid.

All this talk of sheep, shearing and wolves has me wondering: is Garth our Little Bo Peep?

#323 Lefty on 03.24.20 at 11:18 am

Sea of green on Google Finance.. Hey, a good day is a good day!

#324 Shawn on 03.24.20 at 11:20 am

Oil pinned at $23.50
$CAD pinned at 69 cents

The stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.

Not everything that gets broken goes back together again.

#325 Wrk.dover on 03.24.20 at 11:21 am

304 IHCTD9 on 03.24.20 at 10:04 am
#293 Dharma Bum on 03.24.20 at 9:10 am
___

Haha, very good!

“You Don’t Know How It Feels (to be broke)”

———————————–

Wait till you see our wives DBP’s in the future

Then it will be “Whitey Sings The Blues” (Everlast)

#326 Rebs on 03.24.20 at 11:25 am

You have been sounding very Trump-like recently.

Realistically, it’s a big gamble either way.

DON’T take the extreme measures: risk high death toll and healthcare shut-down (including people who are sick with other stuff or injuries who wouldn’t be able to get the care they need..)
OR DO take the extreme measures: tank the economy for awhile but keep the healthcare system (precarious as it is) going for awhile longer.

The experiment is happening live. US states are generally not taking the measures that Canada has, so it should be easy to compare results in a few weeks.

#327 BillyBob on 03.24.20 at 11:26 am

#316 Herb on 03.24.20 at 10:50 am
#305 BillyBob,

don’t be naive. Also, I stopped engaging in pissing contests on this site three years ago.

===================================================

Sure, and that’s why you replied.

Been called a lot of things over the years, usually variations of “cynical”, but naive is a new one – thanks! :-)

As far as naiveté, it runs to both extremes of the argument – believing that the problem is a simple “money versus lives” is just as stupid as believing that releasing massive government funds is really to only benefit Joe Public. Of course neither is true.

That was my only point, sorry you missed it.

#328 YVR Expat on 03.24.20 at 11:27 am

Martial Law coming, enjoy being cooped up inside your shoe box apartment for the next 6-18 months. Expect a majority Canadian population to be obese and diabetic soon. COVID19 won’t be our biggest health problem.

#329 Shawn on 03.24.20 at 11:31 am

Here are the facts updated daily:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

Ignore the media.

#330 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 11:34 am

Ok.

The control, the isolation, the Corvid is a done deal. It’s not going to hurt us.

Time to pivot to opportunity.

Company:

1. Sign all employees to hourly contracts- done
2. Layoff all unnecessary staff to preserve capital- done
3. Continue in-office contracts for design, feasibility, cost estimation, etc with remaining staff
4. Take full advantage of wage subsidies and stop paying quarterly taxes.
5. Take full advantage of stimulus package.

Portfolio:

1. Buy US every week from now until cash is expended- concentrate on essential services receiving stimulus and proven successful leaders: Buffett, Icahn, Musk
2. Avoid ETFs until bankruptcies triggered by this are over.

That’s my plan. Reset everything to today. Past profits and losses are gone and we start, right now, with a clean slate.

Exciting times.

#331 Ronaldo on 03.24.20 at 11:45 am

#227 Shawn on 03.23.20 at 9:38 pm
This is the bottom.

The severity of the virus had been greatly exaggerated by the panic driven media. The US is reopening in 2 weeks. The market will price it in now.

Meanwhile central banks have injected an unprecedented level of stimulus into the global economy.

Buy US technology financials cyclicals & industrials.

Buy the TSX (it hit its 2000 level highs today. 20 years with no price progress.

We’re set up now for a 10 year bull market.

The roaring 2020s.

You heard it here.
—————————————————————
Totally agree with you Shawn. For those who missed out on the 2009 opportunity, you now have a second chance.

The precious metals are humming right now and the stocks that have been beaten to a pulp are now starting to move again. Silver demand is off the charts and premiums for silver maples (if you can get them) are up to 100%. Normally 15%. The big jump in premiums started on March 13th. Most dealers have run out of supply and the mint is not producing them right now.

With China coming back on stream, we should see them coming in as they did in 2008/09 and buying up our resourse stocks. Remember the billion dollar boost they gave to Teck back then when TecK was near collapse. The resourse stocks have taken a sh#t kicking and are on sale right now and in particular the energy stocks.

If you are just getting into the market XIU would be a good start as you could likely see a nice 30 to 40% return in the next 12 months and that might be conservative.

The world is not about to end. It just got shook up a bit and 1 year from now we will be looking back at this shaking our heads wondering WTF happened.

#332 Ronaldo on 03.24.20 at 11:51 am

#228 Shawn on 03.23.20 at 9:42 pm
And it will be a BUYden victory in October.

He’s good for 2 terms easily.

The Clinton years repeat.

Review your market history.
———————————————————-
Now that I don’t agree with. Biden looks and talks like he is ready for the care home.

By the time November comes along if he is even still around, all this stuff that is going on will have passed and the economy back up and running.

#333 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 11:57 am

#289 under the radar on 03.24.20 at 8:20 am

Odd , that people who are paid the least and have almost no benefits become essential in a times of crisis.

—————

?? How so ??

#334 Ronaldo on 03.24.20 at 12:01 pm

#243 Doug in London on 03.23.20 at 10:18 pm
Capitulation? That’s what I thought. I have no idea when the bottom of the stock markets will be but we’re close if it hasn’t already passed by, although don’t expect a big rally anytime soon. A lot of analysts who were recently bullish are becoming more bearish. It’s like a lot of investors are, as the saying goes, waiting for the other shoe to drop. It’s a good time to get more exposure to equities if you aren’t already heavily invested.
———————————————————–
Did you load up on XEG Doug? I bought some at $2.85. Couldn’t resist.

#335 Jager on 03.24.20 at 12:01 pm

Gov. Crypto off…for now.
https://www.coindesk.com/digital-dollar-stripped-from-latest-us-coronavirus-relief-bill?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

#336 TurnerNation on 03.24.20 at 12:06 pm

#306 calgary rip off how many cases have been seen in your community? How severe are they? In terms of how many proven 100% not to be another type of flue or cold.
We need numbers and facts to help us

#337 jess on 03.24.20 at 12:07 pm

let x represent
the few =x rich have’s / have nots
x/y the few over the many

Richie Richs’ pandemic question is :

Why drown in debt when you can walk on so many floating dead bodies?
Find what % of low interest loans to the y’s
and how many no guests/employees =no workers no job no health care ….= high risk fodder =sacrifical

What % of zero interest loans to wall street x’ers – ( assumption hold to infinity ) (ceteris unfair paribus )

*workers never paid enough tax so no unemployment …no money no job and now no health care
The republicans are not retreating from their attempt to void the affordable health care attack which if successful will throw 20m of the poorest americans off health care

The $2 trillion plan is no plan does not have clear guidelines on who is eligible or require companies that take the loans maintain their current workforce. Also at issue is how to deliver funds to states and localities.

In conclusion : kick the can plan delay don’t play
May Richie’ s views keep the “haves” high and turn to concrete shoes for all the others who must lose lol

#338 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 12:15 pm

#212 Shawn Allen on 03.23.20 at 8:51 pm

People Die All the Time?

Whether the fear is justified, it is in any case real and increasing and with no end in sight.

The death of unknown others is a small tiny concern compared to fear of our own early death…

——————–

For Spartans, the greatest insult was, ‘May you live a long life’

In other words: get over yourself, you cowardly wuss. Did you really expect to live forever?

#339 Friedman's Ghost on 03.24.20 at 12:23 pm

#141 Musk

The economy is not a knife, it’s a rubber ball.

#340 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 12:24 pm

Shawn Allen:

You soil yourself and relinquish your manhood upon sight of the enemy.

#341 DFO on 03.24.20 at 12:37 pm

You have been sounding very Trump-like recently.

Realistically, it’s a big gamble either way.

DON’T take the extreme measures: risk high death toll and healthcare shut-down (including people who are sick with other stuff or injuries who wouldn’t be able to get the care they need..)
OR DO take the extreme measures: tank the economy for awhile but keep the healthcare system (precarious as it is) going for awhile longer.

The experiment is happening live. US states are generally not taking the measures that Canada has, so it should be easy to compare results in a few weeks.

——–
Garth is strangely blindsided by the fact that normal flu season or car fatalities, despite the high numbers, don’t overwhelm our hospitals. But this pandemic WILL (and it DEFINITELY will) clog all of our entry points into extended care – so that will exacerbate every single ER case. So what was once 4.5% mortality becomes what.. 10-15? No one has even modeled this outcome!

Next, private health care hospitals in the states are literally 2 weeks from shutting down because all the money-making for-profit elective surgeries are in queue behind covid cases. Uh oh!

Finally, the incredible costs of retraining, relocating, rehiring, finding new tenants, replacing that invaluable assistant etc will grind down capitalists. Think it’s easy rehiring an entire waiting staff at a restaurant?

This is why shutting down, paying out UBI, freezing every cost is needed, because the turnover of not doing so will simply be an unneeded millstone around the neck of this country.

There’s a massive myth that somehow people who get evicted, lose their job etc simply ‘diseappear’ from the system, but in fact they are a substantial tax burden on the rest of those still paying taxes. It’s cheaper to pay UBI than suffer 100k’s of EI applicants or welfare beneficiaries.

This is the end of capitalism as we know it.

#342 jess on 03.24.20 at 12:39 pm

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: ‘I’m all in’ on risking my health ( is he? at 72 and his health care plan gets him a ventilator) to lift social distancing guidelines for economic boost???

the mathematical boost

#343 Pierre on 03.24.20 at 12:45 pm

To all you fools here who believe the young and healthy should get back to work to avoid an economic collapse: today Andrew Cuomo warned that US ‘can’t sacrifice public health for the economy’, rebutting President Trump insistence that people will need to return to work in a few weeks. New York “won’t sacrifice 1-2% of the population” to save the economy Cuomo said. “The increase in the number of cases continues, unabated. The rate of increase has gone up,” Cuomo said. “We’re not slowing it and it is accelerating on its own.”

#344 Shawn Allen on 03.24.20 at 12:48 pm

(Rate Reset) Preferred Shares

Renters revenge at 291 said of preferred shares:

“The weird thing is, all the issues either mature or must be redeemed at par value.”

****************************************
That is not true. Preferred shares may be a great investment at current prices, but not because they will mature at $25. They will not.

Very few preferred shares mature or must be redeemed.

There is in theory a category of retractable preferred shares where the owners have the right to sell the shares back to the issuer at a set price. I don’t know if there are any of those around and pretty sure very very few.

Rate reset preferred shares can continue to reset every five years basically forever. Most can be redeemed by the company at $25 every five years but there is no requirement and they will not be unless it is to the advantage of the issuer.

Old style perpetual preferred shares have a dividend tht never changes and also usually have no obligation of the issuer to redeem ever.

I just wanted to correct this view that they will mature at say $25.

Again, they may be wonderful investments at this price. Time will tell.

#345 IHCTD9 on 03.24.20 at 12:49 pm

#325 Wrk.dover on 03.24.20 at 11:21 am
304 IHCTD9 on 03.24.20 at 10:04 am
#293 Dharma Bum on 03.24.20 at 9:10 am
___

Haha, very good!

“You Don’t Know How It Feels (to be broke)”

———————————–

Wait till you see our wives DBP’s in the future

Then it will be “Whitey Sings The Blues” (Everlast)
___

Yep. Someday, some future government; will have to do something as the only other option will be the destruction of our currency – then the sweet govy DBP’s go bye-bye (along with many other things).

It is what it is, we’ve done all we realistically can, dual incomes forever, saving since 20’s cheap everything, no debt. Even if things go down and it’s every peoplekind for itself, I’ll still be in good shape to carry on.

If I have to, I can live so cheap it’s a freaking crime. I can heat my house for peanuts, and I can fuel a vehicle for peanuts too. I have a plan that would allow the production of electricity day or night if needed.

I have the space and infrastructure to grow veggies and raise tasty chickens, turkeys and rabbits. I even own the equipment which makes it “easy” to do all this.

I should get a PAL too – I’m a 30 minute hike/ 5 minute ride from 10,000 acres of Crown land that is loaded with deer, grouse, and wild Turkey – who knows how bad things could be down the line? Having a couple long guns in the house would be cheap insurance.

I am actually changing some of my ideas and plans in light of what’s going on now with CV-19. Starting this spring…

#346 CherryPicker on 03.24.20 at 12:54 pm

Great day to be a seller. What’s in store for tomorrow

#347 TurnerNation on 03.24.20 at 1:02 pm

From Reddit: **GOOD News from the UK??**
Wait why did they lock down then…oh that

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid
Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK

#348 Sean on 03.24.20 at 1:02 pm

Garth, as someone who I think was pretty wise about Preferred shares being a deal in the past.

What are your thoughts on the beating they took and now my ETF (XPF) is up 25% in a day! That isn’t normal for shares like this is it???

Relax. All asset classes are beaten up. But this one pays you 6% to do nothing. Chill. – Garth

#349 Lambchop on 03.24.20 at 1:07 pm

A few chickens is never a bad idea. The eggs are so much tastier than store-bought, maintenance is cheap and easy and they get a good life.

Speaking of tasty, SU at ~ $17…?

#350 Deplorable Dude. on 03.24.20 at 1:10 pm

#343 Pierre. “
To all you fools here who believe the young and healthy should get back to work to avoid an economic collapse”

This isn’t a binary decision. Put granny in isolation and get the rest of the planet back to work.

#351 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 1:13 pm

#345 IHCTD9 on 03.24.20 at 12:49 pm

If I have to, I can live so cheap it’s a freaking crime. I can heat my house for peanuts, and I can fuel a vehicle for peanuts too. I have a plan that would allow the production of electricity day or night if needed.

I have the space and infrastructure to grow veggies and raise tasty chickens, turkeys and rabbits. I even own the equipment which makes it “easy” to do all this.

I should get a PAL too – I’m a 30 minute hike/ 5 minute ride from 10,000 acres of Crown land that is loaded with deer, grouse, and wild Turkey – who knows how bad things could be down the line? Having a couple long guns in the house would be cheap insurance.

I am actually changing some of my ideas and plans in light of what’s going on now with CV-19. Starting this spring…

—————————

Likewise. Our only real non-discretionary expense is property tax and apparently that’s just become discretionary as well.

So good. My son and I have been having epic trout and steelhead fishing with no work getting in the way. The smoker is packed with trout right now…

Might have to divest the company and do this fulltime.

#352 Lost...but not leased on 03.24.20 at 1:15 pm

#310 the Jaguar on 03.24.20 at 10:30 am
@#234 DON on 03.23.20 at 9:47 pm
Especially the words above on our current state. Judging by actions thus far…..yikes!

The political infighting over the stimulus in the US makes things worse each and everyday it is delayed. +
——————–
I just wish I could silence the sceptic in me about this whole mess. I can’t shake the feeling that a layer of people ( the Globalist elites) jumped out of the markets just in time, and will buy back in at the appropriate moment and ‘clean up’ on profits. It feels ‘staged’.

=================

Yep….
……that’s what many are saying…that HUGE debt bubble….effectively the can kicked down the road from last crash….has burst…this pandemic is just a smoke screen.

“ALL WARS ARE BANKERS WARS “

#353 Raging Ranter on 03.24.20 at 1:18 pm

#342 jess on 03.24.20 at 12:39 pm

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: ‘I’m all in’ on risking my health ( is he? at 72 and his health care plan gets him a ventilator) to lift social distancing guidelines for economic boost???

“Some of you may die, but it’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make.”

https://youtu.be/hiKuxfcSrEU

#354 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.24.20 at 1:19 pm

#341 DFO on 03.24.20 at 12:37 pm

Garth is strangely blindsided by the fact that normal flu season or car fatalities, despite the high numbers, don’t overwhelm our hospitals.

——

This is a completely untrue statement. Hospitals are overwhelmed yearly due to seasonal flu and have been for a very long time.

How have we forgotten “hall medicine” so quickly?

Easily researched.

Canada 2018 article;
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/04/16/surge-in-patients-forces-ontario-hospitals-to-put-beds-in-unconventional-spaces.html

Here’s one from US from 2018, where hospitals were using tents;
https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/

Go do some breathing exercises…

#355 belly rubs on 03.24.20 at 1:20 pm

#265 Spectacle on 03.24.20 at 12:10 am
In other news,
Elon Musk just successfully delivered 1000 Ventilators to California.

More than I did today……..or GM, Or Ford, or Fiat……

….

Great balls of fire! He has the best pyrotecnics. I wanted one of his flamethrowers.

#356 IHCTD9 on 03.24.20 at 1:24 pm

#340 Pierre on 03.24.20 at 12:45 pm

To all you fools here who believe the young and healthy should get back to work to avoid an economic collapse: today Andrew Cuomo warned that US ‘can’t sacrifice public health for the economy’, rebutting President Trump insistence that people will need to return to work in a few weeks. New York “won’t sacrifice 1-2% of the population” to save the economy Cuomo said. “The increase in the number of cases continues, unabated. The rate of increase has gone up,” Cuomo said. “We’re not slowing it and it is accelerating on its own.”
___

Global deaths from CV-19 as of right now stands at 0.000002%.

2 millionths of 1 freaking percent of the global population.

Put your hair out.

#357 Phylis on 03.24.20 at 1:26 pm

Back to the PAL. SA did you answer? is the subtlety that of a licence and therefore could be revoked and have a subsequent confiscation, or would you be thrown directly into the clink?

#358 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 1:39 pm

So that’s a financial crash, eh? Big deal.

The portfolio is healthy, prospects are enticing, and things are looking up.

Sort of like sailing solo across the ocean. What’s the worst that can happen? Exactly. And that’s going to happen eventually anyway.

#359 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.24.20 at 1:39 pm

#321 Sean on 03.24.20 at 11:04 am
Nice, you sound like you’re on the same page as Trump.

In all seriousness did we go too far? I’m not sure. Medics in Italy have to choose who gets the ventilator. If the economy goes though, more people will suffer than the virus. Who is going to make the call?

—–

I hate to burst your bubble, but prioritizing ventilators happens all the time here too…

#360 Marco on 03.24.20 at 1:42 pm

Boomer plus Terminator = Boomerator

#361 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 1:57 pm

#357 Phylis on 03.24.20 at 1:26 pm

Back to the PAL. SA did you answer? is the subtlety that of a licence and therefore could be revoked and have a subsequent confiscation, or would you be thrown directly into the clink?

——————

There’s no subtlety. I was just tweaking another poster.

#362 nan on 03.24.20 at 1:58 pm

The death rate for COVID will end up at about 0.1% or less, comparable to the flu. 50-100k deaths in the US. The virus is already everywhere, the quarantines are having limited effect. The reaction is overblown. Governments are piling wood on a smoldering fire in the rain. When the rain stops, you better be invested. Day 2 of death declines in Italy,. the virus has run its course there. Prepare for launch.

#363 The other Lebowski on 03.24.20 at 2:02 pm

#339

“The economy is not a knife, it’s a rubber ball.”

A debt saturated economy isn’t a rubber ball. It’s an egg.

#364 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 2:15 pm

#347 TurnerNation on 03.24.20 at 1:02 pm

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

Status of COVID-19

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK

——————–

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha! …[wipe tears]…. ahahahahahahaha! …oh, stop… please… hahahaha!

Whew! So, the Corvid is just a cold, eh?

Weird. Who could’ve guessed?

#365 NoName on 03.24.20 at 2:17 pm

@IHCTD9

ok trackor, i was always under impresion that pal is drivers license for quad, what did i miss?

@SA

you lucky bastige. mine steelhead pfhluhgr graphite is sitting in corner of the dining room reminding me of many wrong lifestyle choices…

https://imgur.com/0RhMSdp

#366 Marco on 03.24.20 at 2:27 pm

The Closing of 21 Million Cell Phone Accounts in China
you can google it to feel better, no?

#367 Lambchop on 03.24.20 at 2:32 pm

Rogue Tory MP vows to delay proceedings

Conservative MP Scott Reid was in the Commons Tuesday despite an order from his party’s whip to stay away from Parliament — and he promised to delay proceedings to protest how the chamber is operating.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/parliament-covid19-emergency-funds-legislation-1.5507797

__________________

Thank christ that some people managed to elect an MP with a backbone.
Commons suspended, no approval for power-grab bill, and no agreement on Emergency Measures enactment.

Maybe the news can report on the reasons why the CPC opposed trudeau’s bill, but not likely.

#368 RoddyJohn on 03.24.20 at 2:42 pm

The death rate for COVID will end up at about 0.1% or less, comparable to the flu. 50-100k deaths in the US. The virus is already everywhere, the quarantines are having limited effect. The reaction is overblown. Governments are piling wood on a smoldering fire in the rain. When the rain stops, you better be invested. Day 2 of death declines in Italy,. the virus has run its course there. Prepare for launch.

Perhaps you should check your Italian Mortality Stats again….

#369 NoName on 03.24.20 at 2:44 pm

There is going to be good money to be made by bringing all those uhaule trailers from wherever they are being pulled last couple of weeks. I only see them going in one direction, 2-3 per trip to work. Old people mostly, luckily they’re not drinking fish bowl cleaner because orange guy sad, and it’s listed on ingredients list…

How joke or two?

#370 Handsome Ned on 03.24.20 at 2:53 pm

Been re-reading Cormac McCarthys opus, Blood Meridian while being cooped up. Here is an apt passage: “Far out in the desert to the north dustspouts rose wobbling and augered the earth and some said theyd heard of pilgrims borne aloft like dervishes in those mindless coils to be dropped broken and bleeding upon the desert again and there perhaps to watch the thing that destroyed them lurch onward like some drunken djinn and resolve itself once more into the elements from which it sprang. Out of that whirlwind no voice spoke and the pilgrim lying in his broken bones may cry out and in his anguish he may rage, but rage at what? And if the dried and blackened shell of him is found among the sands by travelers to come yet who can discover t engine of his ruin”.

#371 entrepreneur on 03.24.20 at 2:54 pm

Canadians are speaking up. More manufacturing in Canada, Alberta Tar Sands oil only, protecting our parliament tradition, investors questioning, and more questions. And we need/want answers. Not “we can do more.”

Small Businesses (within borders) keep the Canadian economy alive even in situations like this. But are asked to shut down, to stop the spread.

By self-isolating will slow down the spread of wildfire corvid is a defence mode. Other countries have shown how to reduce the spread by proper awareness. But a virus lives on.

Testing seems to be the referee, that feeling of “now I know” and go from there.

Small Business need more control, more power to keep open for our much-needed-dying economy, right now.
I am sure they are doing everything in their power to abide by the pandemic flu rules.

A suggestion: Allow SB to conduct the self-testing so they know where to go from there. Start fighting back, offense.

#372 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.24.20 at 2:58 pm

@347 TurnerNation-

Has sanity finally returned…..somewhere?

Cue the panicking virtue signalers in 5…4…3…2…1…

#373 Doug in London on 03.24.20 at 3:04 pm

@Ronaldo, post #334:
I’ already heavily invested in the oil sector so in the interest of diversification I’ve scooped up a lot of other DIRT CHEAP stocks and ETFs. In the foreseeable future I’ll park my ass in the comfy cozy chair, maintaining isolation of course, put my feet up and let the dividends roll in between now and when the markets recover.

#374 meslippery on 03.24.20 at 3:06 pm

First, the bad news.

The Chateau Laurier, Ottawa’s hotel castle, is closing. Air Transat is on life support. Derek, who’s worked for Air Canada for 32 years, got his layoff notice as we talked on the phone this morning. Five hundred thousand people applied for EI last week. That was a record. In the States on Thursday it’s expected between two and five million jobless claims will be reported. The all-time weekly record previously (in 1982) was in 695,000.
————–
Why do this then ??
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ottawa-to-exempt-temporary-foreign-workers-from-some-covid-19-travel-3/

#375 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.24.20 at 3:06 pm

#366 Marco on 03.24.20 at 2:27 pm sez:

“The Closing of 21 Million Cell Phone Accounts in China
you can google it to feel better, no?’
———————————————
Proof positive of 21 million deaths, amirite?

Go away.

#376 CC on 03.24.20 at 3:09 pm

#212, I highly recommend you read the article in the following link. It explains why you should not waste your time engaging with certain commenters.

https://blogs.psychcentral.com/psychology-self/2018/08/narcissist-arguing/

#377 Renter's Revenge! on 03.24.20 at 3:16 pm

#344 Shawn Allen on 03.24.20 at 12:48 pm

Thanks, I appreciate your reply. I obviously still have more to learn about preferred shares.

“Rate reset preferred shares can continue to reset every five years basically forever. Most can be redeemed by the company at $25 every five years but there is no requirement and they will not be unless it is to the advantage of the issuer.”

This is the thing that bothers me the most about them. It’s sort of a “heads I win, tails you lose” scenario for investors.

#378 Attrition on 03.24.20 at 3:18 pm

#364 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 2:15 pm

#347 TurnerNation on 03.24.20 at 1:02 pm

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

Status of COVID-19

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK

——————–

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha! …[wipe tears]…. ahahahahahahaha! …oh, stop… please… hahahaha!

Whew! So, the Corvid is just a cold, eh?

Weird. Who could’ve guessed?

Pure. Gold.

Now, where are all those blogchair experts, town criers and fear mongering sheeples who are so astute at only belching up negative stats while ignoring the positive ones?

[…silence…]

#379 Overheardyou on 03.24.20 at 3:22 pm

“But before we go there, let’s be clear about something. This is not an empathy blog. It’s not an N95 analysis site. No medical expertise. No vaxxing comments.”

——————–

Exactly the reason, I come back daily for some sanity, barring the comments section :)

#380 IHCTD9 on 03.24.20 at 3:26 pm

#365 NoName on 03.24.20 at 2:17 pm
@IHCTD9

ok trackor, i was always under impresion that pal is drivers license for quad, what did i miss?

__

PAL is drivers license for everything :D

#381 Pritzl on 03.24.20 at 3:29 pm

First, a small correction. Some 15% of patients develop severe symptoms. That proportion could easily overwhelm the health care system as it did in Italy at which point the mortality rate will sky rocket.

That said, I think it would be easier to concentrate what limited resources are available on protecting the vulnerable as opposed to trying to spreading them thinly across the entire population. But I’m no epidemiologist so I cannot say whether that would be more or less effective that what is being done now. It would be less disruptive though.

#382 oh bouy on 03.24.20 at 3:32 pm

bigger shit show in this comments section than it is out there lol

#383 Ronaldo on 03.24.20 at 3:36 pm

#373 Doug in London on 03.24.20 at 3:04 pm
@Ronaldo, post #334:
I’ already heavily invested in the oil sector so in the interest of diversification I’ve scooped up a lot of other DIRT CHEAP stocks and ETFs. In the foreseeable future I’ll park my ass in the comfy cozy chair, maintaining isolation of course, put my feet up and let the dividends roll in between now and when the markets recover.
—————————————————————-
LOL, right on. And yes, a lot of DIRT CHEAP stocks right now and have picked up a few myself. Enjoy the ride.

#384 CC on 03.24.20 at 3:44 pm

For those who got excited over what they read un the UK HCID guidance, hate to be Debbie Downer, but:

https://www.businessinsider.nl/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-how-long-last-fines-covid-leaving-home-2020-3?international=true&r=US

#385 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 4:02 pm

Garth, thank you kindly for this discussion outlet during this irritating and turbulent time.

I strongly encourage all with investable resources to use your firm, as you have in no way lost your mind while the markets tanked.

If you wish to acknowledge this endorsement with an Orvis 6-weight fly rod or a weekend Whistler ski trip, then let the record show that I am ready to accept it.

#386 Phylis on 03.24.20 at 4:24 pm

#361 Sail Away on 03.24.20 at 1:57 pm Ah man, and here i was trying to think.
The last time i signed a long gun registrant, the person told me the undisclosed purpose of the registry was so the government did not need a warrant to enter the home. Seems like a long time ago…

#387 Sail away on 03.24.20 at 5:10 pm

#384 CC on 03.24.20 at 3:44 pm

For those who got excited over what they read un the UK HCID guidance, hate to be Debbie Downer, but:

https://www.businessinsider.nl/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-how-long-last-fines-covid-leaving-home-2020-3?international=true&r=US

————–

Lesson time, CC:

Hysteria does not equal danger.

UK health: no biggie / UK gov’t: AAAAAGH!!!

#388 maxx on 03.24.20 at 5:14 pm

@ #363

Yeah, I remember that one….isn’t that where all the king’s horses and all the king’s men…….

#389 CC on 03.24.20 at 6:11 pm

#387, Despite my inclination to not engage with word salad masters, you may have noticed that until recently the UK government was loathe to listen to world health experts.

#390 Scot on 03.25.20 at 6:15 pm

Hey Garth just curious where you’re pulling numbers from. I think what you mean is 4% of people who have been confirmed cases with the virus have died so far. The deaths lag the confirmed cases. Doesn’t really change your argument though. Sounds like you’re not too worried. I hope you’re right! I think there will be stark contrast between countries that handle this well and those who don’t. Hopefully no one gets over 10% mortality as Italy has but I’d be very surprised if they’re the last to have their health care system completely overwhelmed.

#391 Prince Polo on 03.26.20 at 10:58 am

#65 Pierre Falardeau on 03.23.20 at 5:07 pm
“let’s be clear about something. … People get sick. They die. All the time. … The mortality rate globally is 4.29%. So to a financial guy that looks like 96% of people survive an illness which causes mild symptoms in 95% of victims. Yet 100% of the economy is being decimated.”

Your lack of empathy is astonishing. If this is your view, why don’t you volunteer as a guinea pig for test vaccines? At least that will provide a meaningful service to your fellow humans, as opposed to, say, telling them they should hold on to their stocks and bonds or, dig forbid, buy the big dip now. Are you man enough to volunteer?

My statement is fair and accurate. Yours is emotional and ad hominem. I think you should therefore volunteer. – Garth

=====================
Sheesh! No wonder QC was originally excluded from the survey.