The war

In wars, truth is the first casualty. This is war.

No wonder people are fussed. The news is an endless torrent of medical negativity, while common sense tells us the greatest damage to the largest number will be economic. Not sickness. Not death. But job loss on a Biblical scale. In the overall population, the number of infected is tiny. However this has caused a global meltdown. Civil liberties are being stripped away. Citizens have turned into social distance warriors and shamers. National and provincial borders have hardened. I hear people in my little town asking for road blockades. What a shame.

Job loss, financial loss, income loss, isolation and fear cause stress. Stressed people get sick easily. The number of victims will surely multiple. In the US a couple of million cases are on the way before a peak is glimpsed. You can do the math for Canada.

Late last week we talked about the changes this will bring. Jobless claims this week in both Canada and the US will be historic. The oilpatch is a disaster. Hotel occupancy rates of 5% are forcing many to close. Airlines are desperate. Airbnb is collapsing. The tourist season’s already lost. The number of small businesses that will not reopen may be legion. Unemployment rates could top 20% and GDP contraction hit 15%. Last time we saw numbers like that people were driving Packards and Cords. Or horses.

The next few weeks will get worse. This is not a health blog, so we have no idea where the pandemic is headed (neither do you, Trump nor your neighbour behind the curtains). But the financial markets have not yet found bottom. The spring real estate market is kaput. Government deficits will be beyond experience. And major corporations – who a few months ago were pulling in billions every quarter – are abandoning us.

Shuttered TD branch on Bay Street in Toronto, March 21st.

.

Effective Monday morning 239 RBC branches across the country will be dark. And TD chose Friday night at 9:30 pm ET to send out a notice that – effective immediately – fully a third of its branch network was closed. Instantly, almost 400 locations and all the people working in them were gone. No advance notice to clients. Not the finest hour in corporate Canada. By the way, an internal list of all the shuttered banks is here.

So are we headed for a depression?

In a war predictions are harder than usual. But not this time. The answer is no.

Over the coming days trillions of dollars will be announced and spent by governments as they pay laid-off workers, subsidize airlines, pump liquidity into the banking system, slash borrowing costs, forgive indebtedness and backstop corporations. Logic tells us pandemics are temporary. They come, wreak havoc, peak then pass. An economy that was firing on all cylinders in January and collapses in March can be functioning again in June. And in advance of that, financial markets will advance. They always do. Stocks are a leading indicator. Oh, life (and markets) aren’t going back to normal any time soon, but neither are they going to zero. Nor are we destined to re-live the Dirty Thirties. But you will never forget 2020.

I’d like you to meet Brodie. He just sent me this:

I’ve read every post on this blog since the very beginning and it’s helped my financial situation immensely. Late 30s. Married with 2 kids, small house with 80k left on the mortgage, 2 incomes totalling 200k gross and what used to be a half million dollar portfolio balanced and diversified across the three account types. Up until now I’ve been a disciple.

We’ve watched a significant portion of that portfolio evaporate. With the news (and the markets) getting worse every day it’s getting difficult to hang on. We’ve stuck with it through 2008 and every blip since, but it seems different this time (wow, did I really just type that?  :)

Worried about loss of employment for both the wife and myself as businesses and positions continue to be wiped out, and an eventual need to go into financial survival mode. Meanwhile, markets seem to have no bottom and with millions headed for unemployment I don’t see how valuations start to improve even in the next 1-2 years. To me the future looks far worse than most financial pundits and governments are willing to admit. (Seen what’s happening in Italy lately?, and the US looks to be headed for worse).

Still don’t sell into the storm? Still plan on using small cash savings and LOCs to tide us over in the event of a job loss (or double job loss) while we watch the portfolio burn? We are probably better positioned than most families and yet the fear is immense. Feel free to use this on the blog (edited down or whatever you do), or don’t if you think it will just panic others and add to the confusion.

Either way, thanks so much for everything you have done. Regardless of the outcome of this crisis, you have done more to help Canadians financially than any person or institution I can think of. Whatever happens, I’m very grateful for that.  Wishing you, Dorothy and Bandit health and safety, both mentally and physically, in these tough times.

The head tells us this will pass, not to panic and sell. The heart cries, but what if we’ve slipped into the unknown, the end of days? Is terror the correct response?

Well, Brodie, there’s only one right answer. Do what’s best for your family. Dumping assets, hoarding cash and hunkering for jobless Armageddon is certainly a strategy. But it comes with a heavy long-term cost. You’re not even half way through your life, and your kids have eight decades before them. Is it rational to think this one year will destroy the future? Or is it more logical to believe this is a debt-cleansing reset and a world full of fancy scientists will find a way to bury an infection from which 97% of people recover?

Will the coming days be darker? Yes. Will they end? Absolutely. The outcome of this war is known. Tell your children about bravery.

 

349 comments ↓

#1 Shawn Allen on 03.22.20 at 3:20 pm

“Stocks are a leading indicator.”

Really? The stock market with its record highs so recent was among the last to see the impending danger.

Improving economic conditions are easier to spot than a viral pandemic. And, yes, the market is a leading indicator. – Garth

#2 Flop... on 03.22.20 at 3:28 pm

Just got back from running errands on Fraser St.

A guy wearing one of these, breathing like Darth Vader, was freaking everyone out in the dollar store.

Luke, this is not your fathers economy…

M45BC

https://www.amazon.ca/3M-7162-Full-Facepiece-Spray-Respirator/dp/B0002STR86

#3 Chris Sankar on 03.22.20 at 3:30 pm

Thank you Garth. This time is indeed different. We are headed towards a depression with a record job loss. Since Great Depression, both Canada and the US have never lost so many jobs. There will be millions of jobs lost in the US. No wonder the market is in a free fall. This is worse than 2008. As per Goldman Sachs, we are far from bottom. Dow will be at 6,000 in the next 1-2 years.

#4 Lost...but not leased on 03.22.20 at 3:34 pm

Phhyrrzzttt !

#5 Blair on 03.22.20 at 3:35 pm

Courage, morality and consideration for others have largely gone by the boards these days. It’s all about the gratification of the individual, rather than concern for the collectivity. Will this exceptional crisis cause us to review our values? Perhaps some good can come out of it.

#6 TurnerNation on 03.22.20 at 3:39 pm

Some trends: I;d been wondering why the homeless encampments began springing up in every city within one year. From Moncton (new) and Westward. The media was all over it. Some suggest they are put there for us to see them. The message? Fit into the system and don’t ask questions…or else you’ll end up among them. Maybe?

A –theory– is of a 6-month shut down until the new system is in place. It will be a central A.I. controlling everything. Did you think that the Internet of Things was for you? All those robots and self-moving self driving invented via unlimited Defense budgets?
They are already telling us: farm crops won’t get planted, no TFWs allowed. Government and banks are unreachable by phone; courts are cancelled – no fair trial for you. They system is being shut down. Rent and mortgage holidays, government handing out income. Already! It’s as if…as if…they had this ready all along.
No country is being spared. Well they already took down South America via revolutions and lock downs last year.
The farming will be all self driving; all vehicles; robot delivery of mail, etc.
A Central APP will be your ID for the new money, your job, your travel permit, your health coverage.
They even lay it out. 2020 is Now. It’s all here if you want a 6 month preview:
https://id2020.org/#

#7 Kevin on 03.22.20 at 3:40 pm

Great post as always, Garth. A reasonable and valued voice in these dark times.

#8 Jim on 03.22.20 at 3:41 pm

Toronto is waging a rent strike:

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2020/03/people-all-over-toronto-not-paying-rent-april-1/

#9 BlogDog123 on 03.22.20 at 3:43 pm

Italy’s daily spike in death numbers is alarming, even if most are older people. The key indicator will be the next two weeks to know if social distancing reverses the trend significantly.

Does not bode well for hotspots like New York. Essential company activities only… And what about countries with very poor health care systems…

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

#10 Penny Henny on 03.22.20 at 3:45 pm

Debt reset? To me it seems the opposite.

#11 Tough to hang on on 03.22.20 at 3:49 pm

Tough to hang on right now while our retirement savings evaporate. When they are down 20%, they will need to go back up 25% just to break even again! I just don’t see it happening anytime soon. Thinking of selling and sitting this one out for a while.

#12 zammer on 03.22.20 at 3:52 pm

Great post once again Garth!

Brodie, I am in a very similar situation as you, 2 kids & turning 40 next week. Same size B&D portfolio before the crash. Reading Garths blog since 2008.
My anxiety elevates every day with everything going on as well, just know you are not alone and try to stay the course if you can. Only cash in a part of your investments if you feel you need to give you a cushion if you are concerned about job losses.
As Garth says, these crazy times shall pass.

#13 Paddy on 03.22.20 at 3:53 pm

Great article today Garth.

I don’t wish misery/debt/job loss on anyone, but at the same time, if you over leveraged yourself and didn’t heed the warnings then you fully deserve 100% whats coming to you.

Stay the course Brodie! You’ve been through 08 and didn’t panic/sell? Well done my man. I didn’t have any skin in the game back then but i remember getting laid off and thinking “WTF am i gonna do now?” Fast forward 12 years and here I am with a plump portfolio(that’s down 30% mind you) and nothing in the way of debt except a very small mortgage. And yes, i got laid off this week. But my portfolio is providing me with income and we have little expenses. You’re gonna be fine. You took the advice on this blog and applied it. Be proud of your financial decisions and ride this one out.

#14 Armpit on 03.22.20 at 3:53 pm

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tYk8dY2xrNo

video for us dog blogs…

#15 Dave on 03.22.20 at 3:56 pm

If government keeps giving money and banks give 6 month mortgage holiday – will this keep BC prices sky high? What are the chances that houses are reasonably affordable?

#16 Apocalypse2020 on 03.22.20 at 3:56 pm

“But you will never forget 2020.”

#17 april on 03.22.20 at 3:57 pm

#9- Apparently there’s a huge number of very old people in Italy – in their 90’s – so that would account for the many deaths.

#18 NoName on 03.22.20 at 3:57 pm

lets learn from italy,

There are few thing that went wrong in italy, just few to name, they closed a borders 1st but not restaurants and cafes for simple example.

Number of cases keep climbing, so quarantine came in, but number of infection keep climbing, according to what i read win in 10 days in quarantine curve would flatten and went on a downward slope, but it dident.

Estimation is that 40-60% of people dident respect quarantine, now italian majors are losing it on internet, one sad he will sent police with flame trovers…

here is video

https://twitter.com/INVESTMENTSHULK/status/1241808855883026435

#19 joblo on 03.22.20 at 4:00 pm

Any tips? My Schnauzer is failing at physically distancing.

#20 Stone on 03.22.20 at 4:00 pm

Is it rational to think this one year will destroy the future? Or is it more logical to believe this is a debt-cleansing reset and a world full of fancy scientists will find a way to bury an infection from which 97% of people recover?

———

I like how that’s written. Either one option happens or a second option happens. How simplistic. Of course, how this is written, it must be either option A or B. There can’t be option C, D, etc.

Where did you get 97% recovery? Pray tell not the stats from the Chinese Gouvernment. That would be foolish. Let’s use something better:

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html

In the above link, ignore the numbers from China and focus on the rest of the world. Now, ignore the total infected number. Only focus on total recovered and those who have died as they are the ones who have gone through the full cycle. Tell me if you see and deduct what I have. Now tell me again about a 97% recovery rate.

You have no idea what’s coming.

#21 Tough to hang on on 03.22.20 at 4:01 pm

If you still have 20 or more saving years ahead of you it’s easier to brush this one off, for retired people in their early 60 like myself it’s the easy life evaporating in front of us, don’t see myself being a greeter at wall mart to make ends meet so capital preservation is critical to us and cash maybe the answer for now.

#22 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.22.20 at 4:03 pm

Meh. The screaming will stop.

#23 Lost...but not leased on 03.22.20 at 4:04 pm

In last post…I mentioned Jon Rappaport article:

( Encourage people to review his other articles )

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/20/hiv-a-medical-coder-makes-a-startling-statement/

The basic synopsis is H-O-W do you make a PROPER diagnosis ? You don’t….you simply skew the data to fit the given agenda.

IMHO…..this coronavirus is simply a propoganda weapon by the globalists. We are being lead around by nose and being exposed to Fear Porn.

” ALL WARS ARE BANKERS WARS”

What I foresee is the Global corporations are hunkering down and waiting for the collapse of the small business and middle class. On – line firms (like Amazon) will increase their share of market to point of virtual(no pun intended)monopoly. If you restaurant doesn’t have take-out….maybe permanently they will disappear.

Our leaders are a certifiable disgrace……

#24 NoName on 03.22.20 at 4:05 pm

@flop

I did press play, i dont car that you dont like me, i like you, if i could chose broder it would be you, i change my mind i am not leaving tomorow. You should see prices for tyvek suits…

for starwars and contagent fans

London uk

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8125093/amp/Asda-shopper-wears-Stormtrooper-helmet-coronavirus-panic-buying-empties-supermarkets.html

Mississaugee

https://twitter.com/ScottFoxonair/status/1237523933886210048

#25 Camille on 03.22.20 at 4:07 pm

Thank you Garth for logic and calm, when it’s most needed. Garth says no depression. I want to sell too but then what? Will I also sell my house at a loss because its value is down.
Everything is closed due to the virus, not the economy. That’s a problem though.
There is asymmetric risk in the market maybe. Down risk may be less than up risk now. So logic says to hang on. And in a diversified portfolio, stocks are a large part of the losses. Only sell stocks, miss recovery? If cash is needed sell something but not everything. Sell some bonds, gold.
But the heart hurts doesn’t it!

#26 FreeBird on 03.22.20 at 4:08 pm

Russia sending medics and equipment to Italy:

https://youtu.be/3IsyEMDjk2M

Good oped:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/im-a-canadian-quarantined-in-italy-my-message-self-isolate-now_n_5e76661dc5b6f5b7c54549dc

Cdn govt may ramp up testing? Front line staff agree not near enough. Will help case stats/outcomes for data modeling be far more accurate. Local distillery making alcohol for hand wipes/disinfecting. Good for them.

Day 7 home quarantine. Warning it can ramp up just as you think it’s better. Still don’t qualify for testing. Family doc extended for 3 wks. Covid can incubate for 28d and be contagious with no symptoms 5d. Must stay 6 feet away. Go for walk in fresh air if able or sit/stand on deck/porch (no devices). It helps. Stay safe all.

#27 Islandgirl on 03.22.20 at 4:09 pm

I’ve stopped looking at my investments, I’m only midway through my life, so 20 years from now is when I’m going to need that money and it’s only been a few months. I am sure that by the time I need it, it will be fine, but I feel for those that need that money now (parents and such). :(

#28 MF on 03.22.20 at 4:10 pm

#239 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 1:11 pm

Again, so having a PAL gives you a sense of control.

Lol I can keep going doing this all day.

Anyhow, do people get PAL’s so they can look at them, or to purchase a weapon?

My point is everyone with a PAL is still susceptible to infection and disease. The value is largely psychological. People laughing at those buying toilet paper because they were purchasing weapons and ammo are equally as misguided.

MF

#29 J on 03.22.20 at 4:11 pm

“Or is it more logical to believe this is a debt-cleansing reset…”

I’m curious Garth (or blog dogs) what this means exactly and what the outcomes of this debt-reset are.

#30 CJohnC on 03.22.20 at 4:11 pm

Test test test for silent carriers. Shorten the spread shortens the economic pain

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076323/third-coronavirus-cases-may-be-silent-carriers-classified

#31 Flop... on 03.22.20 at 4:12 pm

NoName20 at 4:05 pm
@flop

I did press play, i dont car that you dont like me, i like you, if i could chose broder it would be you, i change my mind i am not leaving tomorow. You should see prices for tyvek suits…

////////////////////

Yeah buddy, you are my blog brother.

I thought when you wrote, you were gonna write about the big earthquake in Croatia.

Do you think it was someone doing mass explosion to build up a barrier from Italy…

M45BC

#32 jess on 03.22.20 at 4:13 pm

TED2006 | February 2006
helped to eradicate small pox i recommend you listen one billion house calls door to door searching the illusion and why one needs surveillance system earlier detection early response increase rewards ….in 1980 world free -it was the largest campaign in united nations
4m the surveillance system for polio is door to door !
EARLY DETECTION EARLY RESPONSE
https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_my_wish_help_me_stop_pandemics?language=en

#33 Lost...but not leased on 03.22.20 at 4:14 pm

GARTH QUOTE:

Effective Monday morning 239 RBC branches across the country will be dark. And TD chose Friday night at 9:30 pm ET to send out a notice that – effective immediately – fully a third of its branch network was closed. Instantly, almost 400 locations and all the people working in them were gone. No advance notice to clients. Not the finest hour in corporate Canada

======

Garth:

Are these bank closures PERMANENT..or TEMPORARY ?

Wait and see. – Garth

#34 Raging Ranter on 03.22.20 at 4:14 pm

“Debt cleansing reset.”

We can hope. That’s what 2008 should have been. Wasn’t allowed to happen. If it does happen this time, then I do not share your confidence in market recovery. A debt-cleansing reset requires a long term downward revaluation of assets. Balance sheets have two sides, and they must balance.

#35 Lefty on 03.22.20 at 4:15 pm

Biggest difference between 2008 and now IMHO? Smartphones. People checking Twitter/CBC every minute, reinforcing the end of the world narrative. People panic and sell (via the oh so handy app on their smartphone)

Totally agree with you here Garth. Vast majority will eventually be exposed to the virus, vast majority will recover. Like every other virus in the history of our species.

#36 Faron on 03.22.20 at 4:15 pm

Thanks for this post Garth. I’m with you in almost all of it except your second paragraph that at this point is simply distasteful/pissing in the wind. I am taking by your concluding sentence to say that all that preceded it are shameful outcomes.

“In the overall population, the number of infected is tiny. However this has caused a global meltdown. Civil liberties are being stripped away. Citizens have turned into social distance warriors and shamers. National and provincial borders have hardened. I hear people in my little town asking for road blockades. What a shame.”

Garth, I would have expected someone with a background in finance to understand exponential growth and compounding. When your growth rate is 5-20% per day, tiny becomes yuge real quick. That’s why investing works and is why, in this case, we want that rate as small as possible to keep tiny tiny. You deniers have to get the “it’s such a small number relative to the population” shit out of your head. Stop watching fox news or reading the conservative rags or immersing yourself in pools of thought oriented more toward capital preservation than the fact that, without these measures, we will certainly see a healthcare system at its breaking point. Understand the facts and stop throwing around these meaningless stats. If a hurricane struck that killed a thousand Nova Scotians would you just divide 1000 by 7.7 billion and laugh it off and blog out that number? I should hope not.

Civil liberties are being stripped away to force above rates down. Watch Italy this week. They are two weeks in to their lock-down and it should begin to pay with steady declines in newly infected and easing the apocalyptic load on their healthcare system. And f#$k your civil liberties. You don’t have the right to drive your truck/car/hybrid into a crowded plaza even if it only means killing 3%…

Social distance warrior good! I agree shaming is bad.

Boarders have hardened. Good! Essential commerce is allowed to flow. Take a staycation and quit whining. See rates above.

Road blockades, agreed that it’s bullshit. NIMBYism is a pox.

It’s your blog so do with it what you may, but you have to realize that you have a fair number of readers and with them comes responsibility to shed a point of view that may benefit the largest number in times like these. This is true even if you don’t understand why we are being asked to take the measures we are asked to take or to put the economy through the wringer.

The post is balanced, unlike the comment. – Garth

#37 Together on 03.22.20 at 4:20 pm

Brodie, if you’ve been reading Garth’s blog for that long, you would be educated enough to know you just shouldn’t sell it now. Your kids won’t go hungry. It will pass. Stay strong people.

#38 TurnerNation on 03.22.20 at 4:20 pm

Spotted in Parkdale Toronto (poorer area) signs “Keep your Rent April 1st”
Metcap private RE corp owns tons there.
They need a No More Maintenance and Repairs April 1st sign…

#39 Marco on 03.22.20 at 4:21 pm

Well, bat soup no good, no?

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.20 at 4:21 pm

Arrived from Halifax yesterday and went and checked on some employees today.
They’re all happy and fine, no worries.
Earning double bubble during a pandemic while millions are being laid off….
While I was there……One of our guys swallowed a peppermint the wrong way and all the govt employees freaked when he started coughing uncontrollably…they all used his coughing fit as an excuse to walk off the job……
Our fearless govt employees.

Anyone seen any cops handing out speeding tickets in the past week?

Interesting, historic times.

#41 Drinking on 03.22.20 at 4:23 pm

Not the finest hour in corporate Canada you said Garth!

You hit the nail on the head with that line in your post; it will be very intriguing to see how people react, especially the younger one’s, once we get through all this. I wish everybody good health and sanity, stay safe!

#42 Marco on 03.22.20 at 4:23 pm

Now, all you investors, can you donate some medical stuff to hospitals? See, all of you are rich but country, not so.

#43 Grunt on 03.22.20 at 4:24 pm

We’ve lost the spunk of dead generations and morphed into internet woosies floundering around in bad news.

This will end. Life will go on. We’re not sitting in the ruins of Berlin or Dresden in the Spring of 1945.

#44 Trojan House on 03.22.20 at 4:28 pm

I’ll reiterate – it took WWII to finally turn things around for the great depression which started with the crash in 1929. If it wasn’t for the war, who knows how long the depression would have lasted. That is a solid 10 or 11 years.

If we are talking depression here with the measures they are implementing, why do we assume we’ll be back to normal in June or a year? I hope so, but by that time the damage will be too great.

Instead of shutting down the entire economy, why not just construct emergency hospitals like they apparently did in China? This seems more logical than $100 billion plus deficits , people’s life savings decimated and 20% of the workforce not working.

Depression is not in the cards. – Garth

#45 Flop... on 03.22.20 at 4:30 pm

Been a long time renter in my area.

Got some solid neighbors, but we normally just keep to ourselves, with a bit of small talk about the weather and such.

Yesterday a few of us were out gardening, washing vehicles, that sort of thing.

One guy had recently had surgery and I had offered him my email address if he needed a hand.

Yesterday he decided to take me up on the offer with everything going on.

I went back inside yesterday and wrote my email address and cell number on a few pieces of paper and gave them to a few of my neighbors.

Under certain conditions we can probably help each other out before the overran usual responders arrive.

You might want to do the same.

Either that or tell him to stay off your lawn…

M45BC

#46 Tough to hang on on 03.22.20 at 4:31 pm

Italy and Spain are struggling trying to contain the virus and the US seems to be way behind and we already have a 20-25% correction in balanced portfolio. If the US gets in a similar situation to Italy/Spain I think we have not seen close to the bottom of this.

#47 Bob in Hamilton on 03.22.20 at 4:34 pm

Be brave everyone….

….and just hang on.

#48 MF on 03.22.20 at 4:34 pm

Brodie’s situation is probably very common.

My parents are starting to panic as well, and they are in their 70’s with a fully paid off house (never had a mortgage anyways) and a 7 figure portfolio plus pension. I try to calm them down as much as I can.

Everyone should realize this will pass, yes, and they will be fine. But there will be long term implications and lots of pain along the way. Everyone will eventually get COVID. We are literally just buying time so that the medical system can get ready. Yes mos of us will be fine, but many will not. Social distancing is for them.

We’ve had decades of low rates, bond buying, and all kinds of weird financial strategies that were employed to keep the ghosts of 2008 away.

Those moves are now backfiring. Strategies are being reassessed. It’s not unlike war, where fighting the previous war will leave you defeated.

First will come the bailouts and packages. They will stave off depression and imminent disaster. But they, like the bailouts in 2008, will come with a cost. This new round of spending comes at a time the world has record debt. It means the debt crisis just got moved much closer. Expect currency issues, inflation, and eventual rising rates…whether the bank of canada wants it or not.

Housing as an investment is done, and the overleveraged are very vulnerable. Unfortunately, this is a lot of people. Our economy is highly dependent on real estate. Nothing new there.

There will be money to be made. Somewhere. We will know where that is in about 4-5 years.

MF

#49 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 4:37 pm

Everyone looking in the wrong direction again.

NYC brings in a million doses of hydroxychloroquine to take on the virus. Sounds like Trump was right about that drug.

This thing is over. Bottom in the market was last Friday.

#50 JSS on 03.22.20 at 4:37 pm

I am now believing in what they call it…a balanced portfolio. Not easy being a cowboy anymore

#51 TurnerNation on 03.22.20 at 4:42 pm

https://keepyourrent.com/

Again our global rulers want total mayhem at every level.

https://keepyourrent.com/

#52 Hindsight on 03.22.20 at 4:43 pm

EVERYONE should read this, very well evidenced and researched…..its too late to be concerned about who did this it’s more about what was created and why this virus really is different !!!

https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/

#53 theoryAndPractice on 03.22.20 at 4:44 pm

What matters most is the time you can spend with your loved ones, when a person run out of time ,money really don’t matter
He or She goes always without it. So enjoy the time you have while you can.

#54 habitt on 03.22.20 at 4:48 pm

And major corps abandoning us. Not their finest hour. Indeed. Follow the money.

#55 Abby on 03.22.20 at 4:52 pm

Some love & levity. Stay safe.

https://www.ted.com/talks/billy_collins_two_poems_about_what_dogs_think_probably/up-next?language=en

#56 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 4:55 pm

“You know what I hate about banking? It reduces people to numbers. Here’s a number – every 1% unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die, did you know that?”

From the movie the Big Short. Looked it up, it has some validity to it. Think the virus will take as many people as hopelessness and suicide will? Think again.

#57 Dolce Vita on 03.22.20 at 4:56 pm

Admire your verve Garth “David Farragut” Turner.

I’m with Goldman Sachs and their assessment of Canada’s largest trading partner’s GDP growth prospects (and ultimately The Great White North’s as well):

Q1 -6%
Q2 -24%

But heck, what does a US $1.3 Trillion total asset company know?

Head, bury in sand analysis today.

————————-

Maybe, just maybe, some good news for all lockdown captives:

https://i.imgur.com/ZfAdBO9.png

Daily increment of positive cases, the flattening curve, except in real life (touch wood it sticks…for the sake of the rest of the World doing what Italia is doing and hoping for the above curve to take hold).

Of course, having shown this I will have jinxed an entire nation BUT like our Blog Authors analysis today:

“Damn the Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead”

Actually, public domain curve at Italian John Hopkins style web page:

http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1

(Andrew Coyne on Twitter complaining John Hopkins not updating for Canada…for the Love of God with all the IT talent in Canada, do what Italia did and make your own).

#58 Leichendiener on 03.22.20 at 4:57 pm

The nobles have retreated into the castle but continue to pontificate and signal virtue from the parapets. It will be soon time for the masses to catapult a fetid corpse into the courtyard to let the elites know our misery.

#59 Howard on 03.22.20 at 5:01 pm

Corporate buybacks were responsible for 95% of equity growth since 2010.

What happens if (more likely, WHEN) Congress bans or significantly limits buybacks?

That is a bogus stat. – Garth

#60 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 5:01 pm

The war was about maintaining democracy.

After this “war” we will lose more fundamentals of democracy permanently, than in 9/11.

#61 Leftover on 03.22.20 at 5:02 pm

First, read this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html?searchResultPosition=1

From the New York Times, no less.

Second, this is a virus. People will get sick and die but, to quote from the above article, it’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. That quote is from an eminent US epidemiologist. 6,000 people die every day in the USA (600 a day in Canada), so remember that in the coming weeks.

There are already vaccines being tested, several will work, and we’ll have access to them within a year.

#62 Fortunate one on 03.22.20 at 5:03 pm

#19 maybe this will help your schnauzer. Just a few suggestions from another schnauzer. youtube.com Pluto’s advice to crisis.

I hope that helps. If not it is good for a chuckle

#63 Jerry Salk on 03.22.20 at 5:05 pm

#250 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 2:30 pm

“The out-of-box view about this health crisis on YouTube by Dr. Thomas Cowan: Virus et electrification de la Terre
In every pandemic in the past 150 years there was a quantum leap in the electrification of the Earth.

Whenever you introduce a new electrical field to a biological system, you poison it. You kill some, the rest goes into some kind of animated suspension, they live on, but sicker.

Some examples:
– Introduction of radio waves around the world: 1918 Spanish flu.
– 1968 Hong Kong flue when satellites were introduced

The first city in the world, fully blanketed with 5G was Wuhan.”

Guess the utter disregard for basic hygiene had nothing to do with the virus in Wuhan?? Slaughtering live virus infested bats, rats and snakes in an open market. Hmmmm… What about the bubonic plague? Please educate me on the electrical forces then. They must have been pretty significant to cause one of the biggest pandemics in history…

#64 CC on 03.22.20 at 5:06 pm

Why is it so difficult for us to appreciate the scale of what an unchecked global pandemic could do? The answer may have something to do with how difficult it is to intuitively understand abstract concepts like exponential growth.

This difficulty has been appreciated since at least 1256, when an Islamic scholar recorded what is known as the wheat and chessboard problem. The problem appears in a parable about the inventor of chess, whose king demands to purchase the new game. The inventor names his price, to be paid in wheat. He suggested that one grain of wheat should be placed on the first square of the chessboard, two grains on the second, and so on, with the sum doubling in this way over 64 squares. The king thinks this a great bargain, and is stunned when his treasurer informs him that the sum would bankrupt the kingdom. The total number of grains comes to 18,446,744,073,709,551,615.

Here’s another example. If you took 30 steps from your front door, with each step twice as large as the last, how far could you get? The answer might surprise you – it’s 26 times the Earth’s circumference. Our inability to appreciate how extraordinarily powerful exponential growth can be has concrete consequences. It’s a major reason why people don’t take their retirement accounts seriously enough, for one. It’s also why people seem to be struggling to understand why every single day matters enormously in limiting the spread of the coronavirus, which follows an exponential growth pattern.

We are already in the midst of exponential growth in the coronavirus outbreak, with every indicator suggesting that the virus is now spreading unchecked within communities across the country.

The good news, though, is that if we act today instead of tomorrow we can The good news, though, is that if we act today instead of tomorrow we can prevent a huge number of infections, and a lot of deaths. Time is of the absolute essence here, and it’s individual choices that matter the most. Aggressive social distancing, avoiding all non-essential social contact, avoiding public places like bars, restaurants and movie theaters, and practicing obsessive hand hygiene are all critically important. If you have any cold or flu-like symptoms, assume you have the coronavirus and isolate yourself as strictly as possible until two to three days after all symptoms have resolved. If you develop shortness of breath, chest pain, confusion, or marked weakness, then please see a doctor.

It’s a rare situation when the lives of others are in the hands of regular people everywhere, young and old, rich and poor, no matter your occupation, and no matter where you live. We’re living it right now. Please take it so, so seriously.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/er-doctor-coronavirus-exponential-growth

#65 Fortunate one on 03.22.20 at 5:07 pm

#19 joblo You and your dog watch the following. It may help and if not at least it’s good for a few chuckles.

YouTube -Pluto’s advice to crisis

#66 Smoking Man on 03.22.20 at 5:12 pm

Had a big chunk of my brain removed last month. So I can get away with this. The rest of you keep quiet on this.

I’m calling this whole covid19 a scam, globalist take over of basic human rights.

Ask yourself, why is Costco, Home Depo, Bass Pro Shop still open.

But you can’t sit down at Tims and cry to a friend how it sucks that you won’t be around in 3 years.

Probably a good time to leave….

#67 Reality is stark on 03.22.20 at 5:16 pm

This is nothing more than a reset from a state of irrational exuberance.
People in the GTA who avoided economic reality by borrowing against their houses to fund inappropriate lifestyles will be pooched.
Your spouse will not tolerate the impending change. Unfortunately you will be looking at a divorce attorney shortly.
The west is being hollowed out and governments have been propping up the housing market and subsequently overtaxing the sector to steal money from the masses to overpay the public sector for years now.
The chickens are coming home to roost.
You are about to find out just how shallow your relationship is. That is the real legacy of the virus.
The best of the free life isn’t behind us now, we just need to reveal who the image conscious narcissists are.

#68 Jake on 03.22.20 at 5:17 pm

Garth, thanks for the words of wisdom and hope for when the light always seems to grow dark.

2008-09 was bad enough but hearing references to the Dirty 30’s today… wow that was alarming. I hope you are right again and neither is coming back.

#69 J.M. Keynes on 03.22.20 at 5:19 pm

#230 Dogman01 on 03.22.20 at 11:31 am

“CBE just interviewed a working guy from Ottawa, he was brilliant. Clearly and articulately explained the real plight of working Canadians in our essentially merciless system of “you work or you do not eat”

Yep, that is correct. The only difference between this and the Great Depression is the Keynesian system Canada and the Western world has had for the past 80 years. The fact that roughly 20% of our workers are employed by some level of government and another portion of our retirees have nice government pensions keeps us from another Great Depression. The rest of sociiety, well god help them…

#70 The other Lebowski on 03.22.20 at 5:19 pm

“That is a bogus stat. – Garth”

Danielle DiMartino-Booth strongly disagrees with you on that. Who is she? The smartest woman in any room.

I agree, she’s fetching, but it’s still bogus. – Garth

#71 Realist on 03.22.20 at 5:19 pm

I predict that this summer, unreleased demand will create a summer of bidding wars and million-dollar Scarborough condos:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-real-estate-association-calls-on-agents-to-stop-open-houses-amid-covid-19-outbreak-1.5506081

The economy will rebound with a vengeance in Toronto. Expect dozens of people offering double for renting apartments and hundreds of locals and foreign investors fighting to buy a Scarborough house for seven digit figures. Remind me in June!

#72 G on 03.22.20 at 5:22 pm

So health care workers don’t need to worry about accidentally taking home the virus to there families. While they care for the very sick.
(Maybe some hotels in Canada and other countries can do the same??)

Ryan Giggs and Gary Neville to let health workers stay free at their hotel
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2020-03-18/ryan-giggs-and-gary-neville-to-let-health-workers-stay-free-at-their-hotel/

#73 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 5:23 pm

#28 MF on 03.22.20 at 4:10 pm

Again, so having a PAL gives you a sense of control.

Lol I can keep going doing this all day.

Anyhow, do people get PAL’s so they can look at them, or to purchase a weapon?

My point is everyone with a PAL is still susceptible to infection and disease. The value is largely psychological. People laughing at those buying toilet paper because they were purchasing weapons and ammo are equally as misguided.

————————

??

One gets a PAL to legally purchase a firearm in Canada.

One gets a Drivers’ License to legally drive a car in Canada.

I’m not sure where you’re going with this. Seems strange.

#74 Mississauga Mel on 03.22.20 at 5:26 pm

#48 MF on 03.22.20 at 4:34 pm
Brodie’s situation is probably very common.

“My parents are starting to panic as well, and they are in their 70’s with a fully paid off house (never had a mortgage anyways) and a 7 figure portfolio plus pension. I try to calm them down as much as I can.”

If your parents are panicking in their financial situation can you imagine what the pay cheque to pay cheque, heavily indebted crowd is doing….

#75 Trojan House on 03.22.20 at 5:28 pm

#63 CC on 03.22.20 at 5:06 pm

Please just stop the nonsense. You are part of the problem of promoting fear. As far as we know, this virus has been around since December, maybe a bit longer. If it was going to infect everyone, as you say in exponential growth, it would have done so already. 300,000 plus in about 4 months is not exponential growth. Will it affect more? Of course. But the way you’re throwing it out there is that half the world’s population will get this. Based on the facts right now, that will not be the case.

#76 Toronto_CA on 03.22.20 at 5:28 pm

I wish we had a control experiment to see how this whole thing would have played out without the absolute destruction of the economy. It could be totally necessary to stop untold millions…or it could result in the exact same number of people dying but we’ve killed the economy on top of that (and hundreds of thousands will die from the socio-economic destruction we’ve done through suicide and substance abuse and domestic violence).

Have you guys seen Taiwan? Not even locking anything down, schools are open. 110 miles from mainland China.

#77 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 5:29 pm

#50 Jerry Salk

The reference was clearly mentioning recent outbreaks.
It does not exclude other reasons either.
Find the video, it mentions a book written about the topic.

Handwashing standards for doctors were “invented” in 1846, at that time causing major ridicule and opposition by the medical establishment.

Madam Curie died of radiation sickness related to his Nobel-prize winning work. Her papers from the 1890s are considered too dangerous to handle, they are kept in led boxes.

It is absolutely logical to anticipate, that we don’t know the health impact of new inventions, technologies.

#78 Yukon Elvis on 03.22.20 at 5:30 pm

#63 CC on 03.22.20 at 5:06 pm

The inventor names his price, to be paid in wheat. He suggested that one grain of wheat should be placed on the first square of the chessboard, two grains on the second, and so on, with the sum doubling in this way over 64 squares. The king thinks this a great bargain, and is stunned when his treasurer informs him that the sum would bankrupt the kingdom. The total number of grains comes to 18,446,744,073,709,551,615.
…………………………

You forgot to mention that the inventor was beheaded for being a smart ass .

#79 Drinking on 03.22.20 at 5:33 pm

#30 Marco

That is unfair to say that; we cannot find PPE for ourselves never mind for our brave Doctors and Nurses risking their lives for us. Believe me if I could find a box of N95 masks I would drop it off to our Fire Departments so they could distribute it to our front line workers. Keep things in perspective; we Canucks are doing the best we can!

#80 oh bouy on 03.22.20 at 5:34 pm

Well said Garth.
Won’t faze the doomers on here though.
I hear theres a buy-get-one-free sale on guns n’ TP at walmart for all you tinfoil types.

#81 Yukon Elvis on 03.22.20 at 5:34 pm

#72 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 5:23 pm

My point is everyone with a PAL is still susceptible to infection and disease. The value is largely psychological. People laughing at those buying toilet paper because they were purchasing weapons and ammo are equally as misguided.
………………………….

Our point is that if u try to steal our toilet paper u will be shot the ass. Get it ?

#82 BS on 03.22.20 at 5:35 pm

18 NoName on 03.22.20 at 3:57 pm
lets learn from italy,

There are few thing that went wrong in italy, just few to name, they closed a borders 1st but not restaurants and cafes for simple example.

Could have more to do with this:

On February 1st Florence, Italy Celebrated “Hug a Chinese” Day

Mayor of Florence Dario Nardella has suggested residents hug Chinese people to encourage them in the fight against the novel coronavirus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNMdg4morQs

#83 Toronto_CA on 03.22.20 at 5:35 pm

Also, deaths from the virus have not, to date, been exponential. They’ve been very near linear, as deaths in asia are replaced by deaths in Europe (deaths outside of Europe not really moving the needle yet). If it follows China and South Korea, Europe will slow as America comes on.

Exponential growth of mortality from the virus has not happened. Garth’s chart with the China numbers showed that. Yes, the daily numbers are big, and growing, but they’re not doubling each day.

New reported cases maybe, but those numbers are meaningless as there isn’t consistent testing happening, we don’t know how many people have it in any given population with any degree of reliability. The only concrete numbers are the mortality figures (and even then, so many of those dying were critical before they got sick, how many died WITH it rather than FROM it?)

Not to downplay anything, because definitely I do not want to see the hospitals overwhelmed and I believe in social distancing. Just hate to see people throwing “exponential growth” claims around when it is not. At least not yet.

#84 Peter Courtney on 03.22.20 at 5:35 pm

Just curious what your balanced and diversified portfolio is doing compared to the markets. Thanks

Better. – Garth

#85 OK, Doomer on 03.22.20 at 5:37 pm

#49 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 4:37 pm
Everyone looking in the wrong direction again.

NYC brings in a million doses of hydroxychloroquine to take on the virus. Sounds like Trump was right about that drug.

This thing is over. Bottom in the market was last Friday.

++++++++++++++++++++++

I’m with you on this one. The more we learn about infection rates and mortality rates, the less scary this thing is.

My guess (and my recent bets in the market) are that this thing will be over in a couple of months and the biggest, fastest, snap back recovery of all time will happen. Fundamentally, the economy is in great shape. Not even a question. You miss it, you lose. Sit tight, buckle up and get ready for the rocket ride.

People who compare this to the Great Depression haven’t even done the most basic Google search on it’s causes. Back then the governments choked off credit and raised interest rates at the most spectacularly wrong time.

Popping of the debt bubble? Hardly. All the lenders want their money back so they have a vested interest in keeping this game going. Remember, collateral is just bank ransom so you pay your debt. The last thing the bank wants is your car.

I’ve spent the last week drinking gin and tonics and picking at shares that I’ve lusted over and have now tanked to below fire sale prices.

Why gin and tonic? Google tonic water and find out.

#86 Jerry Salk on 03.22.20 at 5:38 pm

#20 Stone on 03.22.20 at 4:00 pm

“Where did you get 97% recovery?”

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html

“In the above link, ignore the numbers from China and focus on the rest of the world. Now, ignore the total infected number. Only focus on total recovered and those who have died as they are the ones who have gone through the full cycle. Tell me if you see and deduct what I have. Now tell me again about a 97% recovery rate.”

I did the math and the death rate is almost 14%….

Latest stats – Cases (global): 335,403. Deaths (global): 14,611. Mortality rate: 4.35%. Recovery rate: 95.65%. – Garth

#87 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 5:39 pm

#43 Grunt on 03.22.20 at 4:24 pm

This will end. Life will go on. We’re not sitting in the ruins of Berlin or Dresden in the Spring of 1945.

When this is all done, we will be sitting in the ruins of a big chunk of personal freedom and liberties.

Much harder to rebuild than cities.

#88 Howard on 03.22.20 at 5:41 pm

#49 Howard on 03.22.20 at 5:01 pm
Corporate buybacks were responsible for 95% of equity growth since 2010.

What happens if (more likely, WHEN) Congress bans or significantly limits buybacks?

That is a bogus stat. – Garth

—————————————

I will have to find the source. It wasn’t some crank.

But regardless, there’s no doubt that corporate buybacks represent a massive source of demand for equities and it’s about to go dormant and perhaps disappear indefinitely.

Even as early as November, way before anyone had heard of coronavirus, Goldman Sachs was predicting a significant drop off in buybacks.

Buybacks are the ‘dominant’ source of stock-market demand, and they are fading fast: Goldman Sachs
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buybacks-are-the-dominant-source-of-stock-market-demand-and-they-are-fading-fast-goldman-sachs-2019-11-06

#89 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 5:43 pm

#49 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 4:37 pm
Everyone looking in the wrong direction again.

NYC brings in a million doses of hydroxychloroquine to take on the virus. Sounds like Trump was right about that drug.

This thing is over. Bottom in the market was last Friday.

————————

Agreed… or close enough to the bottom. Optimism will begin.

Of course, those who are prone to hysteria will find a new reason for panic, and those who enjoy acting as volunteer social distance police will be disappointed and forever afterward speak of this as the near end of the human race, narrowly averted through draconian measures, and, coincidentally, their own virtuous actions.

Their children and grandchildren will be told of the heroic actions that saved the world from scoffers, such as me and (why not?) Donald Trump.

#90 Felon Musk on 03.22.20 at 5:47 pm

“And major corporations – who a few months ago were pulling in billions every quarter – are abandoning us.”

Not the 13% of all listed companies in advanced countries who are zombies and not making enough even to cover interest payments but living on capital market support will continue to get money from Wall Street and the Bank of Japan to keep on losing money while their elite make off with billions. Tesla is the biggest leader in this field.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2019/04/10/the-fed-created-an-economy-of-zombies-and-unicorns/

#91 MF on 03.22.20 at 5:49 pm

#72 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 5:23 pm

We had people commenting on here about how they were ignoring toilet paper but instead buying guns and ammo.

My original response was to the guy who said his local Canadian Tire was out of guns and ammo, and that everyone who doesn’t have a PAL is reconsidering (because they cannot procure a firearm and ammo). You mentioned something about me googling what a PAL is. Maybe it was sarcasm. Maybe not. I donno. It’s all good.

My point was both the toilet paper hoarders and guns and ammo nutcases are equally misguided.

Lets leave it at that and focus on our continued moaning about real estate, the impending stock collapse, “moisters”, the weather, and Adele.

MF

#92 SmarterSquirrel on 03.22.20 at 5:50 pm

Garth,

When I was a consultant we would look at best practices and they take elements of the best practices and come up with a better way forward. Now I see incompetence from our government as they do their best to wreck our economy. Looking out at other countries it seems there are best practices we need to follow. In particular Taiwan.

Taiwan was next to China. The epicentre. Their businesses are open yet last I checked they had 7 cases per million people and a total death toll of 2. Canada has 38 cases per million and 20 deaths.

Taiwan got this handle on the virus by banning flights from infected areas, providing masks to individuals on a weekly basis and getting people to wear them, getting massive amounts of sanitizer out in the public areas and they’ve kept businesses and schools open. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/taiwan-covid-19-lessons-1.5505031

South Korea got a handle on this by conducting massive testing and isolating positive cases.

Singapore has done an excellent job of contact tracing and isolating.

If you still know anyone in Parliament I would ask that you please get someone to look at best practices out of Taiwan where they have struck a balance between protecting the population from the virus while not destroying the economy. Surely our government can do the same, they aren’t right now. Right now they are doing their best to destroy the economy from what I can see. 500,000 EI applications last week alone. People are suffering with the wrong approach our government is taking. We should be walking in Taiwans foot steps.

#93 Stone on 03.22.20 at 5:55 pm

https://www.tmz.com/2020/03/22/costco-toilet-paper-hoarding-panic-buying-coronavirus/

LMAO!

#94 Penny Henny on 03.22.20 at 5:56 pm

DELETED

#95 Coronovairus is a scam on 03.22.20 at 5:56 pm

Paul Allan Offit (born 27 March 1951) is an American pediatrician specializing in infectious diseases, vaccines, immunology, and virology. He is the co-inventor of a rotavirus vaccine. Offit is the Maurice R. Hilleman Professor of Vaccinology, Professor of Pediatrics at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Former Chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases (1992-2014), and the Director of the Vaccine Education Center at The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. He has been a member of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.[4] Offit is a Board Member of Every Child By Two[5] and a Founding Board Member of the Autism Science Foundation (ASF).[6]
Paul Offit

Paul Offit
Offit has published more than 130 papers in medical and scientific journals in the areas of rotavirus-specific i…

Dr. Offit recently said, what I’ve been at pains to show here, that “the fear of the virus is a bigger problem than the virus itself.” COVID-19 may be only marginally more dangerous than the Swine flu of 2009, if it’s more dangerous at all. At any rate, it’s not even close to being deadlier than the seasonal flu.
“I wish that every week they put up the number of deaths from influenza and the number of deaths from COVID-19; we would realize that influenza is far worse.” He elaborates:

“This year, in the United States, there were between 300,000 and 500,000 hospitalizations from influenza. We had between 20,000 and 45,000 deaths. Of those, 154 occurred in children.

In the last two months since COVID-19 has been in the United States, 20 children have died from influenza; no children have died from COVID-19.”

Offit continues, noting that even though the flu is “far worse” than COVID-19, “we do not quarantine and we do not cancel meetings for shut down schools, churches, and synagogues from influenza.” The good doctor expresses his perplexity: “I do not understand what the difference is. If these two viruses are likely to cause infection and disease, why are we treating one different from the other?”

https://centerforinquiry.org/video/discussing-the-coronavirus-outbreak-with-dr-paul-offit/

#96 Yukon Elvis on 03.22.20 at 5:56 pm

Depression is not in the cards. – Garth
…………………….

Madame Roo misreads the cards sometimes. Did you check the entrails of a goat ?

He’s in self-isolation. – Garth

#97 Jesse Livermore on 03.22.20 at 5:57 pm

#11 Tough to hang on on 03.22.20 at 3:49 pm

“Tough to hang on right now while our retirement savings evaporate. When they are down 20%, they will need to go back up 25% just to break even again! I just don’t see it happening anytime soon. Thinking of selling and sitting this one out for a while.”

Folks, did anyone ever look at the 20th century’s financial history? Did markets always go up? Were there these nasty occurances known as bear markets ever? Did you think that things were different now?Warren Buffett, the greatest investor in history was sitting on a record $122 billion in cash? That the yield curve was inverting before the crap hit the fan with Covid19…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/one-look-at-this-and-youll-get-why-warren-buffett-is-sitting-on-a-record-cash-pile-2019-10-15

#98 vanisle on 03.22.20 at 5:58 pm

Welp, looks like were done.

#99 theoryAndPractice on 03.22.20 at 5:58 pm

Will the coming days be darker? Yes. Will they end? Absolutely. The outcome of this war is known. – GT

Garth, I hope you are correct on this.

#100 Yukon Elvis on 03.22.20 at 5:58 pm

#33 Lost…but not leased on 03.22.20 at 4:14 pm

Garth:
Are these bank closures PERMANENT..or TEMPORARY ?
……………………..

Yes

#101 Doug t on 03.22.20 at 5:59 pm

Where’s Churchill when you need him

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.20 at 5:59 pm

@#73 Mississauga Mel
“….can you imagine what the pay cheque to pay cheque, heavily indebted crowd is doing….”
+++

Most of the ones I know…..

Are blissfully unaware of how financially Fracked they are…..give it a few weeks until reality hits…

#103 The big Lebowski on 03.22.20 at 6:06 pm

Paul Allan Offit (born 27 March 1951) is an American pediatrician specializing in infectious diseases, vaccines, immunology, and virology. He is the co-inventor of a rotavirus vaccine. Offit is the Maurice R. Hilleman Professor of Vaccinology, Professor of Pediatrics at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Former Chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases (1992-2014), and the Director of the Vaccine Education Center at The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. He has been a member of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.[4] Offit is a Board Member of Every Child By Two[5] and a Founding Board Member of the Autism Science Foundation (ASF).[6]
Paul Offit

Paul Offit
Offit has published more than 130 papers in medical and scientific journals in the areas of rotavirus-specific i…

Dr. Offit recently said, what I’ve been at pains to show here, that “the fear of the virus is a bigger problem than the virus itself.” COVID-19 may be only marginally more dangerous than the Swine flu of 2009, if it’s more dangerous at all. At any rate, it’s not even close to being deadlier than the seasonal flu.
“I wish that every week they put up the number of deaths from influenza and the number of deaths from COVID-19; we would realize that influenza is far worse.” He elaborates:

“This year, in the United States, there were between 300,000 and 500,000 hospitalizations from influenza. We had between 20,000 and 45,000 deaths. Of those, 154 occurred in children.

In the last two months since COVID-19 has been in the United States, 20 children have died from influenza; no children have died from COVID-19.”

Offit continues, noting that even though the flu is “far worse” than COVID-19, “we do not quarantine and we do not cancel meetings for shut down schools, churches, and synagogues from influenza.” The good doctor expresses his perplexity: “I do not understand what the difference is. If these two viruses are likely to cause infection and disease, why are we treating one different from the other?”

The answer: the lying governments, banks and media complex..

#104 TurnerNation on 03.22.20 at 6:11 pm

It’s one of those things. I’ve tapped my contacts many of whom have large networks themselves. Even a friend spending lots of time in NYC.
You might guess the results.
Is there any among you and yours reporting issues other to normal winter malaise?

#105 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 6:12 pm

#258 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 3:47 pm

Merkel gets shot on Friday

——————

Seems a bit extreme.

#106 SmarterSquirrel on 03.22.20 at 6:14 pm

Of those Italian covid19 deaths studied. 1% who died had no underlying conditions. 99% had various combos of underlying conditions, the most common being heart disease high blood pressure and diabetes, all common with obesity.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/03/99-percent-of-italian-covid-19-deaths-had-health-issues.html

10% obesity in Italy. Below 6% in China and South Korea. 30% in Canada 42% in the US. I feel like our health care systems in North America are going to be overwhelmed due to the prevalence of obesity.

This makes it even more urgent that we follow best practices from countries where they have slowed the spread of the virus most effectively. We could see higher mortality in North America due to the higher level of underlying conditions in our population. We need to follow best practices and stop the spread as much as we can by following examples of countries that have been most successful at it.

#107 Sold Out on 03.22.20 at 6:17 pm

Below, a brain scan representative of those recently acquiring a new PAL or 288 rolls of TP, and/or sold portfolio at huge loss. If I could post a Venn diagram of these 3 groups, it would be one perfect circle.

AMYGDALA FRONTAL LOBES

O .

All are fear-based, irrational behaviours.

#108 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 6:17 pm

#69 The other Lebowski on 03.22.20 at 5:19 pm
“That is a bogus stat. – Garth”

Danielle DiMartino-Booth strongly disagrees with you on that. Who is she? The smartest woman in any room.

———————-

Garth’s not a woman. I didn’t even know intelligence was gender-specific, for that matterr.

#109 Pat on 03.22.20 at 6:18 pm

I sure hope this is fake news. If this is real we got big problems coming. Putin releases 800 tigers and 500 lions to enforce self isolation.

https://www.ghgossip.com/coronavirus-russian-president-vladimir-putin-releases-800-tigers-and-500-lions-to-enforce-no-gathering-rule-in-the-country/

#110 Barb on 03.22.20 at 6:20 pm

I believe today’s featured dog exhibited courage which few people could even hope to possess. Raw courage due to loyalty, but courage nevertheless.

He’d have a featured spot on my sofa any day.
I’d ask him just how much courage we need to get through this in one piece…

#111 Ministry of Truth on 03.22.20 at 6:20 pm

My question is that why events to be waited to go south that much? Why some people are so proud of contracting the virus earlier than anyone and reportedly going self isolation with no worries ?

#112 abc123 on 03.22.20 at 6:22 pm

Good post.

#113 theoryAndPractice on 03.22.20 at 6:25 pm

Effective Monday morning 239 RBC branches across the country will be dark.

How people are going to get cash if they need to ?

#114 Drinking on 03.22.20 at 6:26 pm

#55 not 1st

Dam, you’re right; I forgot about that, well, kind of; The Big Short is a movie everyone should watch; what a sh*t show this world is!!

#115 Attrition on 03.22.20 at 6:29 pm

Question:

Is it possible for epidemiologists, doctors, nurses, politicians, scientists, [insert other medical professions] to also be overly emotional, reactive alarmists?

Or are they the only groups among humans not susceptible to having their judgement and rationalism impaired by fear and emotion?

And if it is possible, then what percent of people working in the occupations listed above are susceptible? And how does that compare with the population at large?

These are some questions that should be being asked right now. Because expertise amplifies fear when paired with belief in your own rightness–a belief experts are paid to hold.

We are all victims of this and it is currently unchecked. Stop and think for yourself, never blindly trust.

#116 The other Lebowski on 03.22.20 at 6:29 pm

Morgan Stanley is projecting a 30.1% drop in 2nd quarter GDP. Is this bad? Asking for a friend.

#117 Stone on 03.22.20 at 6:32 pm

US markets futures have already hit their down limit and frozen.

#118 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 6:32 pm

#36 Faron on 03.22.20 at 4:15 pm

And f#$k your civil liberties.

It’s your blog so do with it what you may, but you have to realize that you have a fair number of readers and with them comes responsibility to shed a point of view that may benefit the largest number in times like these…

—————————

… said the Salem witch trial administrators

#119 Attrition on 03.22.20 at 6:32 pm

Wow, closing that many branches is going to be epic for the bottom line of so many banks! Just leave ATMs in place, and yet no reduction in bank fees and the only passing on half the rate cut to consumers.

Epic. Time to load up on bank stocks is nigh…

#120 Marco on 03.22.20 at 6:36 pm

#66 Reality is stark on 03.22.20 at 5:16 pm
This is nothing more than a reset from a state of irrational exuberance.
People in the GTA who avoided economic reality by borrowing against their houses to fund inappropriate lifestyles will be pooched.
Your spouse will not tolerate the impending change. Unfortunately you will be looking at a divorce attorney shortly.
The west is being hollowed out and governments have been propping up the housing market and subsequently overtaxing the sector to steal money from the masses to overpay the public sector for years now.
The chickens are coming home to roost.
You are about to find out just how shallow your relationship is. That is the real legacy of the virus.
The best of the free life isn’t behind us now, we just need to reveal who the image conscious narcissists are.

And you never had a spouse (woman) and you prepaid for your funeral. And now, get lost.

#121 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 6:41 pm

#91 Sold Out on 03.22.20 at 6:17 pm

Below, a brain scan representative of those recently acquiring a new PAL or 288 rolls of TP, and/or sold portfolio at huge loss. If I could post a Venn diagram of these 3 groups, it would be one perfect circle.

AMYGDALA FRONTAL LOBES

———————–

Glad I don’t have one of those. Seems to cause irrational behaviour.

#122 1255 on 03.22.20 at 6:42 pm

Garth, why do you continue to trivialize the virus? Is it ok if 200 million people die? That’s only a small percentage of the world population.

Would you rather I moan and quiver? The pandemic will pass. – Garth

#123 Thanks Garth on 03.22.20 at 6:44 pm

Thanks Garth
I was going to write that I disagree about a depression, then I looked it up. Better to do so research before we do an argument!

A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. A depression is a more severe recession which will go on for a prolonged period of time mainly a complete business cycle.
Given this definition I agree no depression.
For sure a very steep and short recession. And it will feel like a depression with millions unemployed, but like you said it will be short term pain, long term consequences.

Maybe we will have the roaring 20s again after the Great Recession Two GR2
The problem is the news.
So has anyone read that ground zero in Italy now has no new cases, of course not. This is fantastic news and should be front page.
China no new cases, of course not.

We are to focused on on my gosh 57 new cases today in Canada. Population 36 million.
You’re right 500,000 unemployed versus 57 new cases.
It’s the economy stupid. I agree with you again.

So my question, and I hope you give an educated guess, let’s assume this ends late May early June.
How long does it take to bring the economy back up to speed, maybe not full speed but let’s say 75 percent pre shutdown of the economy. 3 or 4 months? Or longer ?
Thanks

#124 Nonplused on 03.22.20 at 6:45 pm

The thing about selling here is that there really isn’t a good place to park the cash, other than perhaps in cash.

Gold is holding up ok but it has failed to rally as much as one would have expected, so it isn’t really acting as much of a hedge. Cash will probably be safe for a while but I see the potential for all the borrowing and spending that is planned in response to easily give us 20% inflation over the next couple of years (not 20% per year, but maybe 5%/y) so in purchasing terms you could lose 20% again just as the markets are recovering. Even if the recovery is largely inflationary it would still be better to ride that up than park in cash and watch it go back up without you.

And go back up it will, eventually. The Fed and other CB’s have demonstrated time and time again that when faced with the choice between inflation and deflation and debt collapse they chose inflation every. single. time. It’s nasty but at least the wheels don’t come off all at once.

So, like many of you, I have spent the weekend thinking about what to do. I’ve never seen my portfolio drop so far and the speed at which it did so was breath-taking. I need a ventilator just to log on to my online banking. And I didn’t have anything in there particularly risky other than too much gold, but I have been working that position down.

My conclusion: Do nothing. Yes, it is risky, but so is anything else I could come up with to do. It is not wise to take dramatic actions if you don’t know why you are doing them. That applies to just about anything in life, not just markets.

And the other thing to note is that we are all in this together. Just like rising house prices made everyone into geniuses this correction is making us all look like idiots together. So relative to your neighbors your relative wealth probably hasn’t changed that much. If anything, it’s whacking the wealthy the hardest. So the millennials can take heart in that. After all, isn’t that what they’ve been hoping for? Well, if they have lost their job now they know what that look like in practice.

#125 Phylis on 03.22.20 at 6:46 pm

Jerry Salk on 03.22.20 at 5:05 pm
#250 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 2:30 pm

“The out-of-box view about this health crisis on YouTube by Dr. Thomas Cowan: Virus et electrification de la Terre
In every pandemic in the past 150 years there was a quantum leap in the electrification of the Earth.

Whenever you introduce a new electrical field to a biological system, you poison it. You kill some, the rest goes into some kind of animated suspension, they live on, but sicker.

Some examples:
– Introduction of radio waves around the world: 1918 Spanish flu.
– 1968 Hong Kong flue when satellites were introduced

The first city in the world, fully blanketed with 5G was Wuhan.”

Guess the utter disregard for basic hygiene had nothing to do with the virus in Wuhan?? Slaughtering live virus infested bats, rats and snakes in an open market. Hmmmm… What about the bubonic plague? Please educate me on the electrical forces then. They must have been pretty significant to cause one of the biggest pandemics in history…

Momma always said not to sit too close to the tv too.
What i learnt from the post was not to eat my tinfoil hat. Good advice for all.

#126 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 6:48 pm

#89 Felon Musk on 03.22.20 at 5:47 pm

—————

Yes. Teslas are, and Tesla is, awesome and Elon is incredible!

He immediately started producing masks and ventilators when needed. What a guy.

Spread the word. Buy Tesla.

#127 Flywest29 on 03.22.20 at 6:49 pm

#98 The big Lebowski

Ya well like that’s just your opinion man.

#128 Deplorable Dude on 03.22.20 at 6:50 pm

If the government wanted to help the Sole Prop’s like me, they could immediately refund that income tax instalment I had to make last week before the 15th……on income I won’t earn now.

And they could wave the automatic tax withholding on RRSP withdrawals.

#129 theoryAndPractice on 03.22.20 at 6:55 pm

What matters most is the time one can spend with loved ones and is not money (having it would not hurt though). Enjoy your time while you can. Once your time is out, it just ends there.

#130 Spectacle on 03.22.20 at 6:57 pm

Video for taiwan response to corona 19
4:22
Taiwan’s COVID-19 Response Should Be A Model For The World | NowThis
YouTube · NowThis News
2 days ago

Really hope this video gets across. Otherwise search it our on youtube. The big secret is, Taiwan seems to be truly have beaten the C virus.

North America is not following this proven path, and not discussing it either. Canada still isn’t making masks……. The leaders own wife has the C virus….we’re in bad shape if we don’t take personal repos sibilant and follow protection like Taiwan.

#131 Toilet Paper value - ROTFLMAO on 03.22.20 at 6:58 pm

For all the proles out there, the worse seem to be behind us…buy stocks.

Tomorrow the media will be in denial mode as the all the indications point that it was an orchestrated global con job.

Toilet paper as a leading market indicator….If you invested in TP you will eat TP and sanitizer…lol

Costco is ahead of the curve on this one…as always. It’s not accepting any returns, you bought it, you own it…

Toilet paper,
Hand sanitizer,
Wipes
Lysol
Rice

Fresh new from the USofA today…lol

https://www.tmz.com/2020/03/22/costco-toilet-paper-hoarding-panic-buying-coronavirus/

Enjoy…

#132 theoryAndPractice on 03.22.20 at 6:59 pm

Today’s picture is my favourite dog breed , very smart and friendly. I just had a chance to know one of them last summer in Europe. Hopefully I’ll get one soon if I can.

#133 Checkout on 03.22.20 at 7:00 pm

You can no longer get there from here.
.
.
.
Printing over credit is done, just accept it.

#134 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 7:00 pm

#63 CC on 03.22.20 at 5:06 pm

It’s a rare situation when the lives of others are in the hands of regular people everywhere, young and old, rich and poor, no matter your occupation, and no matter where you live. We’re living it right now. Please take it so, so seriously.

———————

Naw. Stats don’t support this emotional argument.

Maybe if you say it’s for the kids it will resonate more.

#135 A fine day to walk your people on 03.22.20 at 7:02 pm

The dogs in our neighborhood don’t seem to understand the gravity of the situation but reports are they all love having their people home all day plus all the walks as everyone needs to stretch their legs. I’m lucky in that the neighborhood I live in allows for this while maintaining the so-called “social distancing”. But by my reckoning every dog in the neighborhood got to take his people for a walk today.

But then via social media I learned that a lot of other idiots are cramming the hiking trails and other outdoor features. I guess they all thought nobody else would be there, but apparently they all thought the same thing. Oh well at least they aren’t standing in huge lines to buy life-saving toilet paper outside Costco anymore.

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.20 at 7:06 pm

78+ Billion gone in two weeks.
Weep for the world’s Billionaires.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2020/03/12/worlds-20-richest-led-by-jeff-bezos-shed-more-than-78-billion-amid-thursdays-market-rout/

#137 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 7:07 pm

Shawn Allen, good to see you’re back. You still owe me an apology, by the way.

#138 Drinking on 03.22.20 at 7:09 pm

#123 Sail Away

I guess, I think that is one thing that we can agree on. Elon is a genius; whether it is for profit or not (of course it is for profit,ha), the guy seems to give a sh*t, he has a soft spot for Canada, look up his past. He does have an incredible mind (and team) and desire/s to change things! I have no idea where it will end up but I have incredible respect to those that have a vision and go for it; whether it is good or bad that is up to the intelligent populace.

#139 TurnerNation on 03.22.20 at 7:11 pm

Okay then final comment I heard from a friend his 71 yr old relative in North eastern USA supposed tested positive. Symptoms are some fever and mild cold in this case.

#140 islander on 03.22.20 at 7:12 pm

https://www.kathimerini.gr/1070217/sketch/epikairothta/politikh/skitso-toy-andrea-petroylakh-220320

Family quarantine here!

#141 usedtobeamillionaire on 03.22.20 at 7:17 pm

U.S. fatalities projected to be 2,000,000. At 10% (approx) of their population, Canada can expect 200,000 deaths from this bad beer bug. For perspective, the U.S. military fatalities in WW2 were 416,000.

#142 JSS on 03.22.20 at 7:18 pm

In times like these, I’m sure glad I kept my rotary dial phone.

#143 People Panic on 03.22.20 at 7:21 pm

#2 Flop…

These face masks are designed for paint fumes. I don’t think the manufacturers warrant them for viruses. Perhaps they are better than nothing but I don’t know.

I’ve even seen people wearing dust masks in public. Just because it looks like a mask doesn’t mean it is going to stop a virus! Dust might seem small but compared to a virus it is huge!

#144 the Jaguar on 03.22.20 at 7:22 pm

“Russia is flying eight mobile teams of military virologists and doctors to Italy today to help tackle the deadly coronavirus crisis.
Italian premier Giuseppe Conte accepted Vladimir Putin’s offer of armed forces personnel, vehicles and equipment.
Russia will also send about 100 military specialists in virology and epidemics, the Interfax news agency cited the defence ministry as saying.
Cuba has also dispatched a brigade of doctors and nurses to Italy for the first time this weekend at the request of the worst-affected region Lombardy.

The 52-strong brigade is the first time Cuba has sent an emergency contingent to Italy, one of the world’s richest countries, demonstrating the reach of its medical diplomacy. ”

Funny how those who are demonized by other nations selflessly step up in time of need.
Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead indeed.

#145 Therealstory on 03.22.20 at 7:23 pm

While the World stands still at the moment, a vaccine will be around the corner and it will start spinning again.
The big money that pulled out of the market will go right back in, the governments will juice things up and we’ll see consumer demand start to trickle back in.

This may seem like the Depression for some, but it won’t be for all of society. Unfortunately, I think we’ll see even more wealth transfer over to the rich as they will be able to take advantage of the deals while the leveraged fire sale what they have to get by to pay the bills.

#146 Wkg on 03.22.20 at 7:23 pm

Hang in there Brody, if you have had the discipline to get wher you are, you and your family will be just fine.
I am considerably older than you, and down about 2m, maybe a bit more. I have been her before, the world is not ending, and anyone buying now will be happy they did, in a few years.
One big positive out of the whole thing is that I have not had to look at greta’s disapproving scowl in over two weeks. That has to be worth close to a million dollars, maybe more

#147 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 7:24 pm

#102 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 6:12 pm

#258 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 3:47 pm

Merkel gets shot on Friday

——————

Seems a bit extreme.

Indeed A bit.

#148 AACI Homedog on 03.22.20 at 7:24 pm

If I was to sell, I would lose all the dividends my portfolio earns. With CPP, that’s what I live off. Ride on !

#149 BS on 03.22.20 at 7:26 pm

#87 Howard on 03.22.20 at 5:41 pm

But regardless, there’s no doubt that corporate buybacks represent a massive source of demand for equities and it’s about to go dormant and perhaps disappear indefinitely.

Corporate buy backs are not a free lunch for corporations. They either take cash off the balance sheet or create debt. Only some companies did buy backs. Many did not. If they take away buy backs it will just make companies have more cash on hand, less debt or invest more in expanding the business. In other words crate more higher quality companies. They may also choose to pay out more in dividends. None of these things are a negative for share holders.

#150 This is it on 03.22.20 at 7:28 pm

This is it, we’ve reached the border. This is it, the new world order.

#151 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 7:28 pm

#122 Phylis

Should have inherited your Momma’s instinct, instead of your Poppa’s hat. :)

#152 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 7:32 pm

#123 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 6:48 pm

#89 Felon Musk on 03.22.20 at 5:47 pm

—————

Yes. Teslas are, and Tesla is, awesome and Elon is incredible!

He immediately started producing masks and ventilators when needed. What a guy.

Spread the word. Buy Tesla.

Need more gov incentive to pull that trigger.

#153 Nonplused on 03.22.20 at 7:34 pm

#44 Trojan House

There is no real good evidence that WWII ended the great depression. Correlation is not causation. I suppose you could say that if anything, WWII made things a lot worse for Europe than the depression did.

If we were to take the idea that WWII ended the great depression (which it did, but only to make things worse) and bring it forward to today and accept it as fact, then the right thing to do is bomb Germany into the stone age.

#154 BS on 03.22.20 at 7:34 pm

#98 Doug t on 03.22.20 at 5:59 pm

Where’s Churchill when you need him

Good thing he is not around. The media would be all over him for being too optimistic.

#155 spoon_man on 03.22.20 at 7:45 pm

covid-19 has achieved in a month way more than Marx and all his disciples trough out the course of history. Class equality has never been closer (at least momentarily). Obliterated financial portfolios have rendered the wealthy retired boomer not too far from the currently employed millennial. “Millennial, you are richer than you think…”

#156 Franco on 03.22.20 at 7:46 pm

I agree with you that this virus will eventually pass, but I do not agree with you with certainty that there will not be a depression, we are in uncharted territory and no one has a clue at what the final outcome will be like and what damage will have been done to the economy. How long will the economy take to recover? How many companies will go bankrupt?, well you get my drift.

#157 Lee on 03.22.20 at 7:46 pm

Based on rough estimates average investor with at least ten years in is down upwards of $100,000 in stock value. Futures down 900 again.

#158 45north on 03.22.20 at 7:50 pm

This is peak panic. In two weeks, the US is going to produce all the hand sanitizer, face masks and gloves it needs. In a month, it’s going to have all the testing kits it needs. COVID-19 has the full attention of the US government. Canada is not going to be far behind.

#159 45north on 03.22.20 at 7:51 pm

Faron: Boarders have hardened.

pretty funny

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/boarder

#160 45north on 03.22.20 at 7:53 pm

Grunt: This will end. Life will go on. We’re not sitting in the ruins of Berlin or Dresden in the Spring of 1945.

true that

#161 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.22.20 at 7:55 pm

49 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 4:37 pm
Everyone looking in the wrong direction again.

NYC brings in a million doses of hydroxychloroquine to take on the virus. Sounds like Trump was right about that drug.

This thing is over. Bottom in the market was last Friday.

————

Hey Not 1st do you have a link for the million doses of hydroxychloroquine? I’ve been able to find 10,000 doses and 750k masks, but not the 1m.

#162 Craving Corona on 03.22.20 at 8:01 pm

” … Exponential growth of mortality from the virus has not happened.”

Uuuh, wrong. Look at Figures 1 and 2 here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

Click “Logarithmic” to show that scale and note the straight line. That’s exponential growth.

“The post is balanced, unlike the comment. – Garth”

Fair enough. As a scientist, this stuff strikes a nerve and I get carried away. Your post is factual reporting about what’s happening as far as I can tell. But, putting the “shameful” value judgement on some of the measures that are in place is not balanced. That remark is reminiscent of climate change denier’s claim that their views just “balance” those of the climate scientists. A balanced view is the median view. For climate science, the median view is that of the median of climate scientists so is pinned heavily toward the known science of climate change. In the case of corona, a balanced view would be the median of those who know public health and epidemiology (not me, nor anyone posting in your comment section) and I would venture that that view skews heavily toward caution toward the virus at all costs.

One last thing before I go grab a corona (seriously, this is making me thirsty). Before blaming all the economic chaos on our political response, recall that on Feb 24th, the news of virus expansion caused markets to bomb and to continue to do so. For a good week and a bit, this bombing continued before the first political action (from the supposedly a-political central banks). The markets have continued to drop reflecting the likelihood that there is economic hell to pay. Only in the past 10 days or so have the gov’t enforced lock downs started to come in and really hammer local economies. I’d wager that, even if Trumpism was allowed to run free and this all could be called a hoax, individual fear based on imagined and real impacts of illness would have done just as much damage. I don’t think there was ever a way through this, in any political context, where massive economic and health pain wasn’t inflicted on many peoples.

#163 DON on 03.22.20 at 8:04 pm

#49 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 4:37 pm
Everyone looking in the wrong direction again.

NYC brings in a million doses of hydroxychloroquine to take on the virus. Sounds like Trump was right about that drug.

This thing is over. Bottom in the market was last Friday.

**********************

Trump said the same thing about hydroxychloroquine.

And so did Danielle Smith

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/coronavirus-cure-claim-1.5506187

“Alberta talk radio host deletes tweet with false claim that there’s a 100% cure for coronavirus

There is no known cure or targeted treatment for coronavirus and research is ongoing

Sarah Rieger · CBC News · Posted: Mar 22, 2020 3:08 PM MT | Last Updated: an hour ago

Alberta talk radio host and former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith is being criticized for promoting an article claiming there is a 100 per cent cure for coronavirus on Twitter.

There is no known cure or targeted treatment for coronavirus and research is ongoing.

“BREAKING: New controlled clinical study conducted by doctors in France shows that hydroxychloroquine cures 100 per cent of coronavirus patients within six days of treatment,” she wrote on Saturday, with a link to a blog that reports on technology startups. That tweet was deleted after it received a flood of criticism.

On Sunday, Smith apologized on Twitter for any undue anxiety and frustration caused by her deleted tweet — which she described as a retweet, which means sharing another user’s tweet, not something she wrote — and said she would be more careful in the future…”

#164 Flop... on 03.22.20 at 8:05 pm

Gave this show a plug a couple of weeks ago.

Wasn’t on last week due to Biden vs Bernie.

Hopefully it’s on tonight at 6pm Pacific for a bit of a break from Corona-mania.

What’s Eating America.

Channel 94.

Tonight scheduled show.

The Fresh Food Fail.

The state of health care in America, where people are eating more junk-food than before.

Think poor-mans Anthony Bourdain.

Still been enjoying it…

M45BC

#165 IHCTD9 on 03.22.20 at 8:05 pm

#36 Faron on 03.22.20 at 4:15 pm
———

You need to proceed to the nearest LCBO immediately, take what’s left of your savings; grab a cart – and spend it all.

Keep yourself in an alcoholic coma till this blows over, you’ll live longer.

#166 rob on 03.22.20 at 8:08 pm

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html?searchResultPosition=1

#167 Shawn Allen on 03.22.20 at 8:08 pm

Apologise?

#133 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 7:07 pm
Shawn Allen, good to see you’re back. You still owe me an apology, by the way.

*************************
He thinks I owe him an apology for the following where he opined this is just a cold or flu

Sail Away… Please Do

#244 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 11:15 am said:

Now, after reviewing available evidence? I’m fairly confident holding an opinion this is nothing more than a cold or a cold/flu, and possibly one that’s been around for awhile.

****************************************
Sail Away, please do sail away with your idiotic opinion.

************************************

My comment stands. No apology. I mean you stated that opinion not three weeks ago but only a few days ago. How is that NOT an idiotic opinion? It’s not the time to be gentle with those who don’t take this seriously.

#168 Zed on 03.22.20 at 8:11 pm

The federal government should help the unemployed and small businesses only. NO extra funding for kids or the OLD, enough!

Kids don’t cost more now, old folks don’t need to spend more now.

People losing their job or business need help. Point!

Enough trying to buy votes! Do the right thingh and help the people that are really affected.

#169 Juve101 on 03.22.20 at 8:12 pm

– “ debt-cleansing reset”

Garth how is this a debt reset? Seems more like the mother of all bailouts and sovereign debt explosion…?

#170 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.22.20 at 8:15 pm

#137 usedtobeamillionaire on 03.22.20 at 7:17 pm sez:

“U.S. fatalities projected to be 2,000,000. At 10% (approx) of their population, Canada can expect 200,000 deaths from this bad beer bug. For perspective, the U.S. military fatalities in WW2 were 416,000.”
—————————————————-
Kids, let the above post be a lesson to you. Don’t do drugs.

#171 Hiding on the Backstreets on 03.22.20 at 8:15 pm

This guy has been reading Greater Fool since the beginning? Coulda fooled me.

Garth, your patience and resolve is legendary. You are the skipper at the helm, drilling the message in to the thick heads of the charges – stay the course, no matter what, calm or rough waters ahead.

A big storm, the sea rolling, hurricane headwinds, and where does peoples’ resilience go? Do these people look at their portfolio by the day and make decisions on their lives based on the closing market numbers? This guy wants to bail now?

I don’t know how you do it.

#172 Zed on 03.22.20 at 8:18 pm

Airlines should not be helped, their employees yes via U.I., the last few years we saw a big reduction in on board service, service charges galore even as the oil price went down. No competition. So much share buybacks, bonuses to CEO’s. How much did AC’s CEO made the last couple years? Is he giving back to the airline?

Stop CMHC, that is a war time era program, let the real price of RE be reflected in market.

A crisis like this one has to be used to clean out wrong habits.

#173 joblo on 03.22.20 at 8:18 pm

Thank you #61 Fortunate one, well done! :))))))))))

#174 Zed on 03.22.20 at 8:22 pm

I am not happy seeing my tax dollars wasted by the governments. Please help the real people that are being affected by this crisis, the people losing their jobs not the civil servants or other people not impacted financially.

This is my last post!

#175 IHCTD9 on 03.22.20 at 8:23 pm

Damn, I’ll be glad when something hits the news to settle the fragile nerves of so many folks. What the virus is doing then won’t matter, we just need all the panic stricken folks to calm down. Maybe someone could turn off the internet for a while.

The preppers were right.

#176 Terry on 03.22.20 at 8:28 pm

The shutdowns and closings all around the world, there will be some exceptions, will be starting to lift in about one more week. The economic bounce back from all this will start slowly at first and then all of a sudden as pent-up demand blooms with springtime. Remember we all still need stuff to live and survive. This crisis we are all going through does solve a lot of systemic problems rooted in the past. It will get better going forward. The virus is real but not as virulent as everyone is being led to believe. It’s attack rate for the elderly and immunal compromised is only slightly more aggressive than the regular influenza seasonal flu. Trump and his inner circle have something up their sleeve………….they do know what they are doing. We just have to let this one play itself out. Hang in there folks………….All will be fine in time.

#177 crazyfox on 03.22.20 at 8:30 pm

Truths end wars and sustain peace. Lies end peace and begin wars. The lies we told ourselves before this pandemic is that there wouldn’t be one or if there was one, it wouldn’t effect us here. We are well prepared, we told ourselves. Nothing would get in the way of an 11 year bull run, not God, not disaster, it was destiny. The hard reality is that we told ourselves stuff that wasn’t true and we are finding out the hard way.

We told ourselves that Trump would be great for the economy. Tax cuts, non taxed overseas revenue coming home, higher deficits, lower social spending, slowing illegal aliens from crossing borders lowering unemployment, oil first America first, oil embargoes and trade wars to enforce them, deregulation, the majority of us told ourselves Trump is great for the economy, Mr. market knows. Pandemic prep, that’s a Dem fairy tale for presidential transitions, no need for that, business will handle it if it comes. We’ll just buy or make what we need if something arises. Like masks, right, we’ll just buy them.

I don’t want to get lost in a myriad of political details here even though they are easy to find so I’m just going to focus (try) on one thing today and that would be masks (respirators). When the city of Wuhan and with it the province of Hubei was quarantined in China on Jan 23rd and everyone in China and Asia began to wear masks, someone at the highest levels of government in the largest world economy should have known that masks and most other supplies needed to fight severe pneumonia would face short supply.

We could see factories shutting down by the 1st of Feb throughout China, “WE KNEW THEN”, the supply chain disruptions we would be facing. We knew it! We knew with every announcement coming out of every Asian and later European nation that restrictions placed on the export of respirators and any other supply related to fighting this virus would be in short supply as Asian nations looked out for themselves.

What was the tactical U.S. government response? Minimize and deny the dangers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eB_xCk5ABw

This was followed by the denial of mask’s effectiveness against COVID-19. Here’s one from yesterday, the internet is littered with them:

https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Coronavirus-FAQ-Should-you-wear-a-face-mask-15147298.php

Here’s the thing about masks. COVID-19 is sized at 125 nanometers. There is no mask made to my knowledge that will filter out absolutely everything sized at 125 nm’s. Seals on your face won’t be perfect. The more volume a person breathes, the less efficient any mask will be, this is all common sense. What needs to be stressed, is it doesn’t have to be perfect!

If you asked the low educated, low information lamen out there, “what would you prefer, a whiff of a half a million Corona virus’s, or a few thousand?” Even the low informed would choose a few thousand, no brainer, less is more. Lets explore that. Cont.

#178 NoName on 03.22.20 at 8:32 pm

#31 Flop… on 03.22.20 at 4:12 pm

There was a always that I remember grudge between cro and it, why don’t know. Rumor is girls preferred italians over domestic stock sumer time… But I don’t think that wall is warranted.

You’ll find this interesting read.

https://www.total-croatia-news.com/lifestyle/42208-vili-beros

#179 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.22.20 at 8:32 pm

I found it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/companies/teva-donating-more-than-10-million-doses-of-hydroxychloroquine-as-potential-covid-19-treatment/ar-BB11tIy9

#180 Attrition on 03.22.20 at 8:35 pm

#130 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 7:00 pm

#63 CC on 03.22.20 at 5:06 pm

It’s a rare situation when the lives of others are in the hands of regular people everywhere, young and old, rich and poor, no matter your occupation, and no matter where you live. We’re living it right now. Please take it so, so seriously.

———————

Naw. Stats don’t support this emotional argument.

Maybe if you say it’s for the kids it will resonate more.

Heh. Sail, you’re in fine, fine form today.

#181 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 8:37 pm

#163 Shawn Allen on 03.22.20 at 8:08 pm

Sail Away, please do sail away with your idiotic opinion.

My comment stands. No apology. I mean you stated that opinion not three weeks ago but only a few- days ago. How is that NOT an idiotic opinion? It’s not the time to be gentle with those who don’t take this seriously.

————

Correct, you responded emotionally.

Two opinions are equally valid. It’s fine to think yours carries more weight, but it’s immature to resort to insults.

Just saying sorry would have been easier.

#182 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 8:39 pm

#157 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.22.20 at 7:55 pm
49 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 4:37 pm
————
Hey Not 1st do you have a link for the million doses of hydroxychloroquine? I’ve been able to find 10,000 doses and 750k masks, but not the 1m.
—-

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1241765092158517248

#183 crazyfox on 03.22.20 at 8:42 pm

Cont.

Standing downwind of someone’s cough, a whiff of half a million COVID-19 virus’s is “likely” a short 2 to 3 day incubation period, a few days of mild symptoms followed by a couple days on a ventilator, a day in an ICU, a day in a body bag and a cremation without a funeral. A few thousand virus’s or less means a much longer incubation period, a few days of mild symptoms and unless you are immune compromised, its a mild flu, its over. The reason for the major difference? Viral load.

The longer it takes for a virus attack to increase its viral load killing cells, the longer our immune systems have had to look at this virus, mount a higher white blood cell count and kill it. In short, its war, numbers count and masks reduce the numbers or viral load buying the immune system time meaning they work! Just like washing hands and cleaning surfaces, it works.

If we take the time and read the link below, we’ll understand the ratings of masks. And I quote, “Since filters are tested against the most penetrating particle size of 0.3 μm an APR with a P100 classification would be at least 99.97% efficient at removing particles of this size.[4] Particles with a size both less than and greater than 0.3 μm are filtered at an efficiency greater than 99.97%.” .3 micrometers is 300 nanometers. The Corona virus is 125 nm. At 100 nm’s, even though its smaller than 300 nm’s efficiencies improve as sizes become smaller. The filtration efficiencies coupled with expected loss of efficiencies from human air volumes through disposable respirators still apply below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NIOSH_air_filtration_rating

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirator

N95 Filters at least 95% of airborne particles
N99 Filters at least 99% of airborne particles
N100 Filters at least 99.97% of airborne particles
R95 Filters at least 95% of airborne particles
R99 Filters at least 99% of airborne particles
R100 Filters at least 99.97% of airborne particles
P95 Filters at least 95% of airborne particles
P99 Filters at least 99% of airborne particles
P100 Filters at least 99.97% of airborne particles

In short, I can not begin to tell readers just how much of a fail the North American response to a shortage of masks and related supplies has been. The U.S. has the world’s largest economy with an assumed quick manufacturing response to short supplies on anything, we presume but federal governments have to respond. The response lies with the presidency of the U.S. first and foremost.

To not see an unfolding supply side shock in Asia from the Corona virus and tell ourselves that we won’t be next is well beyond irresponsible and dangerous. Such blindsided response has the potential to spin the world into an economic depression and what? There’s no chance of this? We’d better hope this virus is seasonal because if it isn’t, and there’s no proof yet that it is… then there will be one.

We know so far, with a world herd with no immunity, that this virus seems unfazed by humidity and hours of sunlight in a day. What do you see on the blue line of this chart?

https://3kpnuxym9k04c8ilz2quku1czd-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/insolation-latitude-NOV.jpg

This, coupled with rising cases in equatorial nations tells us that hours of sunlight will not make much difference.
We can only hope much higher rising temperatures will effect it now. The world will get warmer, this much is certain but if the tropics are any indication, plus 90 degree weather and extra hrs of sunlight won’t stop the spread. Look at the numbers from the equatorial nations at wordometer:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

These numbers continue to grow viral, even in the tropics where the hours of sunlight (insolation of light) is at its highest. Humidity has yet to play a factor world wide. We are hoping higher temperatures will fry this virus now and higher temps will come but will they be high enough considering a herd with no immunity? What I’m saying is, Mr. market is basing its hope on a seasonal change which may not come. We are basing an educated guess on COVID-19 being seasonal on this chart:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome#/media/File:2003_Probable_cases_of_SARS_-_Worldwide.svg

What if the SARS virus ended through tracing the chain of infection instead of environmental circumstances?

If higher temps effect COVID-19, the numbers in the tropics will drop first from heat (12 day number delay) so equatorial nations are the first to watch but so far, numbers have only accelerated. Note the temps below and what this could mean for Canada:

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2

And, the U.S. has no real federal plan yet on how to stop it. China reported 46 cases today. The U.S. reported over 8,000. China used government GPS cel tracking apps for infected and suspected cases, temp scanners, masks, pointed media messaging, strategic quarantines etc.. The U.S. used minimizing and denial, i.e. lies up until last week with a varied patchwork response. One nation is normalizing their economy, returning to work and getting back to a state of peace. The other is flat footed with no cohesive centralized response and is at the early beginnings of economic paralysis and war. We as Canadians had better ask ourselves, “what model do we want to follow, China’s or the U.S.” and learn from the good examples as well as the bad. If we can’t, then we likely deserve everything we’ve got coming.

#184 Wrk.dover on 03.22.20 at 8:43 pm

What were all you guys discussing at Davos besides eating my lunch anyway?

#185 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 8:45 pm

#159 DON on 03.22.20 at 8:04 pm

—–

Who are you going to believe, doctors on the ground or CBC?

And for the microbiologists in the crowd, virus follow a bell curve, not an infinite exponential function. That should be self evident.

#186 burnaby guy on 03.22.20 at 8:50 pm

#21 Tough to hang on on 03.22.20 at 4:01 pm

If you still have 20 or more saving years ahead of you it’s easier to brush this one off, for retired people in their early 60 like myself it’s the easy life evaporating in front of us, don’t see myself being a greeter at wall mart to make ends meet so capital preservation is critical to us and cash maybe the answer for now.

Agree with this comment – Point proven you cannot rely on a B&D portfolio to pay rent if you are about to retire or retired.

If you don’t invest for income over 25 years of retirement I hope you have a big wad of cash. Like millions. – Garth

#187 NoName on 03.22.20 at 8:52 pm

#81 BS on 03.22.20 at 5:35 pm
18 NoName on 03.22.20 at 3:57 pm
lets learn from italy,

There are few thing that went wrong in italy, just few to name, they closed a borders 1st but not restaurants and cafes for simple example.

Could have more to do with this:

On February 1st Florence, Italy Celebrated “Hug a Chinese” Day

Mayor of Florence Dario Nardella has suggested residents hug Chinese people to encourage them in the fight against the novel coronavirus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNMdg4morQs

why do you post stauf like that?

msg from mayor in spirit is correct, but i can see execution drawing all creeps out…

#188 Greg on 03.22.20 at 8:56 pm

“Never try to time the markets. The market always returns to a higher level, so just be patient and things will turn around.” Heard that from many sources. My point is, that I think an investor should not put themselves into financial planner autopilot. Yes, you may miss out on some market increases but just as your taking a chance the markets will increase, I think that sometimes in extreme risk situations, you should take a chance that the markets may tank. Don’t try to consistently time the market, by try to see the forest for the trees once in awhile.

#189 OK, Doomer on 03.22.20 at 9:03 pm

I may have to change my opinion on how quickly things will recover economically. Democrats are topedoing a relief package because it doesn’t contain enough climate-change Democrat pork-barrelling.

I assumed the Americans learned from the Great Depression and wouldn’t do something stupid. I stand corrected. Nancy Pelosi is willing to kill people to score some political points. Wow. Inventing new ways to destroy the economy.

The hatred of Trump just crossed from derangement to full-blown psychoses. Pelosi is extorting the American people, using their lives as a bargaining chip.

#190 Arto Tavukciyan on 03.22.20 at 9:04 pm

You guys remember me? On February 2 (check it for yourself), I said sell everything and Garth gave me the “Control only what you can” spiel.

Well now I am telling evryone this is very close to the GREATEST buying opportunity of a lifetime.

#191 Spectacle ( mask on..) on 03.22.20 at 9:05 pm

#139 People Panic on 03.22.20 at 7:21 pm
#2 Flop…

These face masks are designed for paint fumes. I don’t think the manufacturers warrant them for viruses. Perhaps they are better than nothing but I don’t know.

I’ve even seen people wearing dust masks in public. Just because it looks like a mask doesn’t mean it is going to stop a virus! Dust might seem small but compared to a virus it is huge!

———— Hi Masked Blog Dogs ———–
The point of Masks is simple, yet infinitely effective according to Taiwans success. They don’t provide much 1. Micron protection. But:: They do protect You from me, and her from you, and them from her… And so a nation is saved and only then will Life go on.

North America, Italy ( except city of Vo’ ) Canada and pretty much rest of world is in sincere trouble.

The governments( trudeau ) slow , misguided, and politicized response is going to kill people.

It will come out soon, I hope, that wearing a mask a kan 95 please, will be like putting on your shoes and wallet! Only that along with Testing and testing , will pull us around. The prime ministers wife just got the Virus……. They ( trudeau & govt) didn’t get the message yet.

Doing my part.

#192 crazyfox on 03.22.20 at 9:05 pm

#159 DON on 03.22.20 at 8:04 pm

The problem with hydroxychloroquine is the side effects which, in particular, are the most severe to the elderly. We are waiting for trial results from South Korea and China where it was used, but lets keep in mind that there was a disproportionate percentage of people infected in South Korea that were younger females from a religious group having an impact on studies there:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea

There is better promise from a drug out of Japan (Favivavir):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPz5KxgI_K4

I take issue with the study being compared to other drugs that were not placebo, but this is a drug that warrants further study.

#193 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.22.20 at 9:21 pm

BC goes into lock down tomorrow.
Europe burns within the next two weeks.
Over the next week the gravity of the situation will crush the British, French and Germans and they will panic.
Some money might flow into America but I think most of them will go straight to cash because they want canned Tuna.
Hopefully I’m wrong.
Good luck to you all.

#194 Dianne M Maley on 03.22.20 at 9:26 pm

Geez, Garth, life is worth more than money.

#195 George on 03.22.20 at 9:34 pm

Hi Garth,

Understand that this storm may pass. But what if there isn’t enough time or longer than the Great Depression t to weather the storm for the market to see light in the tunnel? Is the 60/40 portfolio asset allocation still valid in these time or future?

For instance, Commercial papers or REITs will have difficulty to fulfill their obligations without major Central Bank intervention. Furthermore, what are investable grade bond could be downgraded when bundled with a lower grade one and hence may end up being junk.

These are really trouble times.

#196 Trojan House on 03.22.20 at 9:34 pm

#100 The big Lebowski on 03.22.20 at 6:06 pm

Thank you for that information on Dr. Offit. Here is the interview he gave. It’s an excellent and very interesting discussion on exactly what it happening.

https://www.physiciansweekly.com/covid-19-is-our-cure-worse-than-the-disease-with-dr-paul-offit/

A must watch.

#197 Greg on 03.22.20 at 9:39 pm

Nice call Arto #176. I checked out your Feb 2 comment. Nailed it. I don’t know about the buying opportunity though. Tricky. People are really spooked. We need a vaccine, then look out! What did you do with your portfolio on or before Feb 2

#198 crazyfox on 03.22.20 at 9:50 pm

#103 SmarterSquirrel on 03.22.20 at 6:14 pm

You are correct.

#91 SmarterSquirrel on 03.22.20 at 5:50 pm

Canada is doing the best it can considering the circumstances. Testing is not where we would like it because of lab backlogs. Respirators left the country to the U.S. when Wuhan went into lock down. We are short respirators, temp scanners, likely short on supplies dealing with ARDS and international manufacturers are hamstrung by their own nations to export.

Canadians need to realize that we can’t do much beyond what we are doing now, other than look at manufacturing what we need for ourselves and we are doing just that. We are looking at the needed tech going forward, make no mistake whether its respirators, temp scanners, government cel phone apps like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6c9gbttVew

Which, btw, Israel is now using. South Korea uses the same app, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, I think Japan is using a variation. Taiwan is going further, temp screening plane passengers before they get off, using government apps to streamline travel information through cel phones, there are plenty of examples of tech we need to use here, but there are logistical hurdles.

Even so, we shouldn’t wait for mother nature or vaccines to bail us out of this one. We’ve got successful Asian national models to follow, we’ve already shut down parts of the economy, people are ready here to do what it takes to get back to work, its not a hard sell. Most of us are willing to compromise and eat the cost to the taxpayer as long as it delivers results.

The response out of the U.S. federal government amounts to buying time for a seasonal change to the spread of this virus. If that slowdown doesn’t come, we are all screwed unless we act proactively now but I can say logistically, Canada is behind on what Asian nations can do. We don’t have the cel phone saturation in the adult market share that Asian nations have and will have to compensate for that. We have to manufacture what we need and the quickest way to this is to reach out to manufacturing capabilities overseas. If they can’t make it for us, they can help us with how. Private industry there can franchise here, if needed. Here, Canada has a diplomatic edge. And, we aren’t hopeless ourselves. It looks like a slow response, but there’s much that we can’t see.

My point, and I think its already understood at the highest levels, is that we have to act, we can’t gamble on this virus being seasonal. Regardless of whether its seasonal or not, COVID-19 will be here this winter until at least March/April of next year assuming a practical vaccine comes for the elderly. The rest of us might not be so lucky as it first rolls out assuming a vaccine does come. Essentially, our economy and community health isn’t something you gamble with unless your a burnt out, personality disordered bankrupt casino owner propped up by Russians who’s only want is EPIC fail.

#199 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 9:55 pm

#163 Shawn Allen on 03.22.20 at 8:08 pm

Sail Away, please do sail away with your idiotic opinion.

My comment stands. No apology. I mean you stated that opinion not three weeks ago but only a few- days ago. How is that NOT an idiotic opinion? It’s not the time to be gentle with those who don’t take this seriously.

———————–

Shawn, when someone says to you:

“if you don’t agree with my opinion, you are an idiot”

What does that reveal about them? I’m honestly interested in your assessment.

#200 Retro Marxist on 03.22.20 at 9:57 pm

Over the coming days trillions of dollars will be announced and spent by governments as they pay laid-off workers, subsidize airlines, pump liquidity into the banking system, slash borrowing costs, forgive indebtedness and backstop corporations.

What about those who don’t qualify for EI such as single mothers and international students? What if they are self-employed? What bout the renters? What about the children?

#201 DON on 03.22.20 at 10:01 pm

#181 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 8:45 pm

#159 DON on 03.22.20 at 8:04 pm

—–

Who are you going to believe, doctors on the ground or CBC?

*****************

I don’t believe anything yet! Just pointing out another point of view. We’ll find out shortly…

Then we will wait while they get enough of the vaccine to roll out to the world.

#202 L D on 03.22.20 at 10:03 pm

My pension has lost about $50k, but I just invested another $10k last week. Market will recover.

#203 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.22.20 at 10:09 pm

163 Shawn Allen on 03.22.20 at 8:08 pm
Apologise?

#133 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 7:07 pm
Shawn Allen, good to see you’re back. You still owe me an apology, by the way.

*************************
He thinks I owe him an apology for the following where he opined this is just a cold or flu

Sail Away… Please Do

#244 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 11:15 am said:

Now, after reviewing available evidence? I’m fairly confident holding an opinion this is nothing more than a cold or a cold/flu, and possibly one that’s been around for awhile.

****************************************
Sail Away, please do sail away with your idiotic opinion.

************************************

My comment stands. No apology. I mean you stated that opinion not three weeks ago but only a few days ago. How is that NOT an idiotic opinion? It’s not the time to be gentle with those who don’t take this seriously.

——

Quit hyperventilating… WHO even says the symptoms are mild for 80% of infected.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

You should be more afraid of the government response than covid-19.

Also.. just so you know; flattening the curve isn’t going to reduce total infections.. it’s just going to prolong the timeframe to give our healthcare system more time to react to it…

Need a paper bag?

#204 CC on 03.22.20 at 10:16 pm

Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially and how to “flatten the curve”.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

#205 Steve French on 03.22.20 at 10:17 pm

Steve French from Oztralia here:

Current status of home-made B&D portfolio (which turns out to be rather less B&D than I though 3 weeks ago…):

Minus 18.1% since 20 January, 2020.

Buffered somewhat by the collapsing Aussie Peso.

Worst ETF performer is my Aussie REIT (representing 3% of my holdings), which is down a full 40%.

#206 PBrasseur on 03.22.20 at 10:21 pm

Too much pessimism here I believe.

This is temporary, in a few weeks you will see the infamous “curve” move and activities gradually restart.

Yes it will be expensive, painful for many with debt and a recession probably unavoidable.

But not the end of the world so get a grip!

#207 john m on 03.22.20 at 10:23 pm

” In wars ,truth is the first casualty. This is war”…how very,very true Garth!

#208 belly rubs on 03.22.20 at 10:24 pm

Funny, vegetable glycerin is an antiviral/antimicrobial used in burn/wound medications (FDA source) and propylene glycol, an inert surfactant, breaks down fat molecules than encase cell membranes such as viruses (Draxe). Where do you get these inhalables? Vaping. I knew you’d get a kick out of that one, Mr. Turner. Beats goose grease with kerosene and sugar.

#209 grasshopper on 03.22.20 at 10:29 pm

Getting more concerned about this.

I’d like to buy some gold or silver because I think the value of the USD and CAD will decrease as the Federal Reserve prints money and the Canadian government spends, spends, spends.

But kitco is out of stock.
Silvergoldbull says the wait is 20+ days
(because the mint is shutting down for 2 weeks due to Covid-19)

Is it worth buying phys from Sprott?

Better suggestions? Thanks

#210 Tudval on 03.22.20 at 10:37 pm

“The math” you are alluding to would imply 200k wuhan flu cases in Canada, but I don’t think we’ll see anything near that. The peak is supposed to be in about one month time and at least in Toronto I don’t see how the virus could jump from one person to another. People are taking distancing seriously. A model I saw shows that reducing close contacts to half, would reduce peak numbers by 75% and I think we’re doing even better than that.

#211 Ronaldo on 03.22.20 at 10:41 pm

40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.20 at 4:21 pm

Anyone seen any cops handing out speeding tickets in the past week?

Interesting, historic times.
—————————————————————–
Dunno, but I understand the City of Van is still handing out parking tickets as observed from those hunkered down in Yaletown towers.

#212 NFN_NLN on 03.22.20 at 10:41 pm

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In July 2019, a rare event occurred in Canada. Suspected of espionage for China, a group of Chinese virologists was forcibly evicted from the Canadian National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipeg, where they had been running parts of the Special Pathogen Program of Canada’s public health agency. One of the procedures conducted by the team was the infection of monkeys with the most lethal viruses found on Earth. Four months prior to the Chinese team’s eviction, a shipment containing two exceptionally virulent viruses—Ebola and Nipah—was sent from the NML to China. When the shipment was traced, it was held to be improper and a “possible policy breach.”

https://youtu.be/g7fWLs6pl78

https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/china-biological-warfare/

#213 Sean on 03.22.20 at 10:42 pm

You seem to be implying that the “suppression” option is the wrong option for us to take. You are mistaken. There is ample evidence that we must adopt the suppression approach (which is now in place) to ensure we don’t exceed the medical services available. Utilizing the suppression approach will prevent millions of deaths.

https://link.medium.com/z5FVd4GT44

This article is free to reach. There are a number of articles in The Economist this week that are based on much of the same data.

#214 belly rubs on 03.22.20 at 10:52 pm

#171 IHCTD9 on 03.22.20 at 8:23 pm
Damn, I’ll be glad when something hits the news to settle the fragile nerves of so many folks. What the virus is doing then won’t matter, we just need all the panic stricken folks to calm down. Maybe someone could turn off the internet for a while.

The preppers were right.

…..

It’s a hollow victory, prepping, but thanks. Isolating on 30 acres of spring meadow with only two boxes of golf balls has been trying, but do-able. My wife is knocking back jager and shwepps to bide the time.

#215 Ronaldo on 03.22.20 at 10:55 pm

The big difference between now and the 1929 depression is that back then 85% of people lived on the farm whereas today it’s the reverse. People in rural areas were pretty self sufficient. Today we have welfare which was not available back then.

My mother told us that back then they had plenty of food to eat but certain things were rationed and you would get ration tickets for those. There was very little money to be had except if you sold livestock. They would also make a bit of money selling cream to the dairies. It was the people in the cities that had the hardest time. My mother sewed all of our clothing.

I knew a fellow who was raised during those years and I asked him what it was like. He said that his father had a good job with the government so they were not affected by it. He said that what he remembers is that there were a lot of people coming to their home for food.

My stepfather spoke of riding atop railcars from the prairies to BC in search of work.

Going to be a lot of hurt before this is over and it’s just the beginning. Not looking forward to the markets tomorrow. Don’t think we are near the bottom yet.

Friends financial advisor is urging him to throw more money into the markets saying it’s a great time. I wonder about that.

#216 Deplorable Dude on 03.22.20 at 10:58 pm

Christ…Pelosi is deliberating crashing the market to blackmail Trump.

Partisan aid bill all worked out and she waltzes back into DC and pulls the rug out. The Dems are trying to insert clauses that partially payoff student debt (nothing to do with current crisis). And they want full control over which companies get aid…i.e. the Big Dem donors.

It was Pelosi’s own daughter who said her mom is so manipulative and hateful she would slit your throat and smile while doing it.

Pure evil…

#217 burnaby guy on 03.22.20 at 11:02 pm

If you don’t invest for income over 25 years of retirement I hope you have a big wad of cash. Like millions. – Garth

But you don’t take living expenses out ( e.g. to pay rent) at the end of 25 years. If you’re retired you need it now while your portfolio is tanking. It may take 2-3 years to get back to even. Also within 25 years there probably will be incidents like another 2008 or another virus to tank the market. By the way I don’t have millions in cash , only 700 thou @ 2.75% plus a small portfolio of about 150 thou plus cpp. I can sleep at night.

#218 World traveller on 03.22.20 at 11:06 pm

This will licked in North America pretty quickly, remember Spain and Italy are defecto 3rd works countries within Europe. They can gloat about their health care system but when it comes down to it the rest of their governments are bureaucratic red taped nightmares. Italy decided to quarantine but neglected to shutdown cafes and from the first infected areas people ran to the South. Same deal in Spain, Madrileños decided to escape and visit their villas in the south on the Med.

#219 Ivan the moderate on 03.22.20 at 11:23 pm

https://nowtoronto.com/news/covid19-rent-freeze-toronto/

“Working-class tenants need to put it on the table that we have serious uncertainty and potential financial burdens on the way. Why should our priority be to further enrich our landlords?”

#220 Reyolds753 on 03.22.20 at 11:33 pm

#181 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 8:45 pm
#159 DON on 03.22.20 at 8:04 pm
—–
Who are you going to believe, doctors on the ground or CBC?
And for the microbiologists in the crowd, virus follow a bell curve, not an infinite exponential function. That should be self evident.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

What is evident is that you do not understand virology, exponential functions nor bell curves. It is initially exponential and the exponential function in all of this can well be interrupted: social isolation, herd immunity, death are examples. It cannot be infinite. This may well shift or flatten the curve. This in no way follows a bell curve.

#221 Ronaldo on 03.22.20 at 11:36 pm

A great interview with Dr. Paul Offit re: Covid 19 virus.

https://www.physiciansweekly.com/covid-19-is-our-cure-worse-than-the-disease-with-dr-paul-offit/

#222 Geoffrey Marcy on 03.22.20 at 11:41 pm

What happens to safety deposit boxes at shuttered branches, if you were naive enough to have one? Asking for a friend…

#223 DrC on 03.22.20 at 11:57 pm

Garth, how’s that a debt-cleansing reset if the CB and FED are injecting billions?

#224 Sue on 03.22.20 at 11:58 pm

Nothing warms my heart like the determination and strength of a 3 legged dog.

#225 Fortune500 on 03.23.20 at 12:16 am

As someone currently living much further East than the rest on here, I have to say that the current level of doom and hysteria is very similar to what we were experiencing around our parts about a month ago.

A certain level of acceptance has now settled in over here. I would say even cautious optimism about coming out the other side so to speak. Think of this as a tidal wave washing East to West. You are currently in peak wave in North America.

Consider that when you consider dumping your stocks. If you do, I will happily buy them :)

#226 Tron on 03.23.20 at 12:16 am

This pandemic may get people to follow the advice of every financial planner. Had everyone saved 3 months of income they would be half as worried right now. Saving three months of income may be difficult however it can be done if people decide they want to do it. It may take time but it can be done.

I’ve watched government leaders over the last two days repeat that this is a serious threat and if rules for social distancing are not followed there will be serious consequences. I think being dead is a serious consequence so how about we grab the dumb shits and put them in a stadium where we can all peg them with tomatoes while practicing social distancing?

When this has passed we’ll see a rise in rural real estate, gold and ammo. Like 911 the world has changed again.

#227 Ronaldo on 03.23.20 at 12:26 am

#110 theoryAndPractice on 03.22.20 at 6:25 pm
Effective Monday morning 239 RBC branches across the country will be dark.

How people are going to get cash if they need to
—————————————————————-
ATMs but you will have to stand in line 2 meters apart and wait for several hours to get to the machine. Make sure you wear gloves. I got my cash last thursday. Suggest others do so before the rush.

#228 There My Money Goes, Greedeau on 03.23.20 at 12:27 am

They have set up some kind of virus command centre in MSA Arena in Abbotsford. I guess they’re expecting an influx of enough ppl to fill the rink….

#229 Nonplused on 03.23.20 at 12:33 am

#122 Phylis

Cheese and crackers will you scientific know-nothings please stop? Radio waves are an electro-magnetic thing just like, wait for it, light from the sun. Only at much lower energies and there is a lot less of it. That is why you don’t get a sunburn from your cell phone. The photons a 5 watt transmitter in your cell phone emits are first of all only 5 watts but in addition to that at much lower frequencies than light. They also cannot penetrate the body to depths greater than light can. For that you need x-rays, which are also electro-magnetic waves but now we are talking super high frequencies, such that we cannot make them without crashing electrons into a metal surface at extreme voltage, or using nuclear decay.

A microwave uses radio frequencies to heat stuff but it does so by shaking the water molecules around. It can’t grill anything because 100 degrees is as hot as it can make anything before the water starts boiling off. (Yes there are also microwaves that have broil capacity but they use straight out heat to do that, so infrared essentially, which is also on the electro-magnetic spectrum and at higher frequencies than radio or microwave.)

Folks, try and learn something about causation versus correlation before you go of seeing demons in every kid’s walkie-talkie. And maybe something of the science. There are probably 10 FM transmitters with great big tall antennas putting out 100,000 watts of FM radio oldies right where you live. It’s still a fraction of what the sun is putting down on you every day and of much less frequency.

When it gets to the point you can see the antenna in your cell phone glow bright light as flash light that is when it might potentially do some damage and give you a sunburn. That won’t be 5G. We are going to have to be at something over 30T to do that. Yes, at least an order of magnitude higher and then some within magnitude multiplication to do that.

This stuff is all available online now but I suppose I have an advantage because I have some physics courses under my belt. But please, if you wish to be a physicist, at least go on Wikipedia. The knowledge is there for anyone. Your light bulbs are doing you more damage than your wifi. They are also much much brighter, in terms of wattage.

#230 yorkville renter on 03.23.20 at 1:21 am

yes, my business will suffer.. but I’ve got enough cash in the bank to last about 18 months… thankfully, our cost of living is relatively low (esp for Toronto)

#231 OffshoreObserver on 03.23.20 at 1:41 am

Consuela Mack Interview:

https://youtu.be/4DhUDEh9NZs

I can’t help but think the gyrations in the Repo market is the system trying to regurgitate bad paper from either DB or maybe even HSBC. This will be resolved when the system pukes up the bad shit.

#232 n1tro on 03.23.20 at 1:51 am

#91 SmarterSquirrel on 03.22.20 at 5:50 pm

Can fools who care more about themselves than others comprehend best practices let alone work selflessly for a company or people when it comes to governments? I think if they could, you wouldn’t have very much business as a consultant from my experience.

#233 Toronto_CA on 03.23.20 at 5:03 am

#158 Craving Corona on 03.22.20 at 8:01 pm
” … Exponential growth of mortality from the virus has not happened.”

Uuuh, wrong.
___________

Uuuh… wrong beause Italy the number of deaths in a day went down from 793 to 651. Exponential growth means deaths per day goes up over time, not down.

And the number of deaths in Asia is basically zero. This virus is brutal for those who are near death, no question. But if it was exponential growth in mortality China would not be open for business today.

#234 Wrk.dover on 03.23.20 at 5:54 am

Someone has to ask Harper if this is the Rapture!

#235 Ustabe on 03.23.20 at 6:12 am

The past couple of days has made me feel privileged to read so many expert opinions.

Unfortunately all are wrong and I alone have discovered the reason this covid virus is running amok.

Against everyone’s better judgement they opened a newly discovered pyramid in Egypt. Not only that they opened a sarcophagus they found. And you know what that brings, right? I mean I’ve seen that movie.

All this just before this modern day plague hit the world. Now all concerned remain silent while blame is politicized.

Study it out, people!

#236 Steven Rowlandson on 03.23.20 at 7:26 am

“Tell your children about bravery.”

It takes a loyal wife and a affordable home to do that.
One is a big matter of chance and the other is nonexistent thanks to 70 to 90 years of social engineering and real estate profiteering plus a 40 year old policy of wage suppression in the name of controlling inflation. It is why I am a 59+ year old virgin who lives in his car. Not a loser, just a realist dealing with circumstances devised and arranged by others.

#237 Delores Sam on 03.23.20 at 7:40 am

BANNED

#238 maxx on 03.23.20 at 8:11 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_CwOk1gmGM

Works for me, has and likely will.

#239 akashic record on 03.23.20 at 8:26 am

So a quote from Neel Kashkari: “an infinite amount of cash at the Federal Reserve… We create it electronically and we can also print it, with the Treasury Department”

With this infinite amount of cash then this morning The Fed has unveiled more programs, this time enabling The Fed to buy corporates bonds (primary and secondary).

Additionally, in addition to Treasuries, The Fed will buy Commercial MBS and Agency MBS and all in unlimited size.

There is only one question left: why do people even need to pay taxes?

#240 Penny Henny on 03.23.20 at 8:46 am

The Fed is giving everyone an American Express Platinum Card.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-announces-major-expansion-of-market-supports-11584964844

“The Fed will lend money to investors to buy securities backed by credit-card loans and other consumer debt.”

#241 TurnerNation on 03.23.20 at 8:47 am

hiring:

Goodfood Market Corp. plans to hire over 500 employees in the coming weeks to support growing operations and ensure the fulfilment of current and future orders across Canada. There are openings in Montreal, Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver.

Goodfood (TSX:FOOD) is a leading online grocery company in Canada, delivering fresh meal solutions and grocery items that make it easy for members from coast to coast to enjoy delicious meals at home every week.

#242 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 8:51 am

Ok, it’s been some time now and many, many famous people have tested positive for the Corvid, the news was splashed everywhere, and they were duly isolated.

And?

Boredom, silly videos, discussions of symptoms (sniffle, tired), hysteria by MSM about the way everyone is vulnerable.

Death?

Not so’s you’d notice. I can name twenty famous people who caught the cold without thinking hard. I can’t dredge up a single one who died, incurred permanent damage, or, actually, really seemed to mind. Anyone else?

Okay then.

#243 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 9:00 am

Oh, can someone else please explain exponential growth functions in layman’s terms again?

Us engineers don’t really understand numbers. Or data and statistics.

This nonunderstanding might be the reason so many engineers scoff at the ‘crisis’ while our more logical neighbouring baristas freak out.

#244 Howard on 03.23.20 at 9:10 am

#238 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 8:51 am
Ok, it’s been some time now and many, many famous people have tested positive for the Corvid, the news was splashed everywhere, and they were duly isolated.

And?

Boredom, silly videos, discussions of symptoms (sniffle, tired), hysteria by MSM about the way everyone is vulnerable.

Death?

Not so’s you’d notice. I can name twenty famous people who caught the cold without thinking hard. I can’t dredge up a single one who died, incurred permanent damage, or, actually, really seemed to mind. Anyone else?

Okay then.

————————————-

I guess Italy’s healthcare system being overwhelmed and having to ration ventilators is just a hoax according to you?

If those celebrities who caught the virus were over 80 and/or had other health ailments, almost certainly some would have died.

#245 Maria on 03.23.20 at 9:19 am

What is story behind the photo? That Dog looks like a hero

#246 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.20 at 9:21 am

@#245 Howard
“If those celebrities who caught the virus were over 80 ….”

++++

Sooooo……… Cher should be worried?

#247 Raging Ranter on 03.23.20 at 9:26 am

#238 Sail Away

Ok, it’s been some time now and many, many famous people have tested positive for the Corvid, the news was splashed everywhere, and they were duly isolated.

And?

Boredom, silly videos, discussions of symptoms (sniffle, tired), hysteria by MSM about the way everyone is vulnerable.

Death?

Not so’s you’d notice. I can name twenty famous people who caught the cold without thinking hard. I can’t dredge up a single one who died, incurred permanent damage, or, actually, really seemed to mind. Anyone else?

Okay then.

You’re definitely onto something there. This virus seems to have a preference for non-celebrities. The 15,000 deaths so far have been overwhelmingly non-famous. Have you published your findings?

#248 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 9:33 am

#173 crazyfox on 03.22.20 at 8:30 pm

We could see factories shutting down by the 1st of Feb throughout China, “WE KNEW THEN”, the supply chain disruptions we would be facing. We knew it!

———————–

So why didn’t you invest in medical protective equip companies then?

Some did, then gleefully boasted of the oodles of cash being made on the panic.

And now it’s time to buy. Only a few will. The tide has turned.

The emperor has been naked since this thing started.

#249 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 9:36 am

#245 Howard on 03.23.20 at 9:10 am
#238 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 8:51 am

Ok, it’s been some time now and many, many famous people have tested positive for the Corvid, the news was splashed everywhere, and they were duly isolated.

And?

Boredom, silly videos, discussions of symptoms (sniffle, tired), hysteria by MSM about the way everyone is vulnerable.

Death?

Not so’s you’d notice. I can name twenty famous people who caught the cold without thinking hard. I can’t dredge up a single one who died, incurred permanent damage, or, actually, really seemed to mind. Anyone else?

Okay then.

————————-

I guess Italy’s healthcare system being overwhelmed and having to ration ventilators is just a hoax according to you?

If those celebrities who caught the virus were over 80 and/or had other health ailments, almost certainly some would have died.

———————–

And…. this celebrity you speak of is…

Oh

#250 not 1st on 03.23.20 at 9:51 am

Death is terrible but use some logic. 57M people died last year and 4M of them were children under age 5.

If dying is the thing that offends you, then there are so many more ways to go after it than shutting down our life sustaining economy. That 57M will double after this.

People have no clue. Eyeballs against the tv when CNN or CBC come on and absolutely zero critical thinking skills. Demanding their personal freedoms be taken away so the govt can save them. Cure worse than the disease.

If that quarantine is not reverse by mid April, there will be no economy to go back to. Think real hard what you are asking for.

#251 akashic record on 03.23.20 at 9:55 am

RY.TO is fighting to dip below 5 yr low.

#252 Yuus bin Haad on 03.23.20 at 9:55 am

OK Kids, time to put your thinking caps on – your Boomer* leaders are failing you.

*well, and a couple of Gen Xers

#253 Raging Ranter on 03.23.20 at 10:01 am

#244 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 9:00 am

Oh, can someone else please explain exponential growth functions in layman’s terms again?

Us engineers don’t really understand numbers. Or data and statistics.

This nonunderstanding might be the reason so many engineers scoff at the ‘crisis’ while our more logical neighbouring baristas freak out.

I’ll give it a shot, in non-numerical terms. Sometimes expressing it as a story helps.

“As his denial turned into full-blown hysteria and delusion, Sail Away’s commenting frequency increased exponentially.”

#254 Dharma Bum on 03.23.20 at 10:02 am

Glad I took Garth’s advice and applied for CPP for the wife and I when we both turned 60 at the end of 2019.
It’s kind of nice to have that cash flow now.
A bird in the hand, y’know?

#255 Phylis on 03.23.20 at 10:06 am

#151 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 7:28 pm
#122 Phylis

Should have inherited your Momma’s instinct, instead of your Poppa’s hat. :)
#230 Nonplused on 03.23.20 at 12:33 am

Hey akashic, got any more article examples of disruption, say from the introduction of stereo radio broadcast, b/w tv, colour tv (they added a vector ie more energy), microwave ovens, cable strung up by rogers, computer emissions, hv transmission lines, boom boxes (its in the electromagnet spectrum too) as well as headphones. Asking for a friend.
This is fun. Yes we are living in a soup of radiation. If i could shake my finger fast enough or think faster i could be a stronger transmitter.

#256 James on 03.23.20 at 10:08 am

After discussing the current state of affairs over the phone last weekend with my father who is in the medical field we both have found it abnormal that Russia with a population of 147 million has an infection total of 147 with 0 (zero) deaths. Canada with a population of 37.6 million has an infection total of 1472 with 21 deaths. My father says either Russian has severely limited civil liberty on a scale we would never comprehend or their data is erroneous. I would consider the latter is more likely as does he. Something doesn’t add up here with Russian data. Canadas Coivd-19 data tracks almost identical to the State of California where as their population is 39.5 million with 1435 infected and 27 deaths. Regardless he said the infection rate is overwhelming the ability of our medical system to properly handle the current increasing rate of infections. He said the matter is that this disease is taking up valuable resources and delaying other medical conditions and treatments due to its capacity to spread through the medical system. He works with a medical oncology group treating cancer with chemotherapy and targeted therapy or immunotherapy and says these people are already at risk. It is heartbreaking to him and his group watching people make decisions regarding their life extensions vs catching Coivd-19.

https://bing.com/covid?form=msntrk

#257 Penny Henny on 03.23.20 at 10:12 am

#201 Steve French on 03.22.20 at 10:17 pm
Steve French from Oztralia here:

Current status of home-made B&D portfolio (which turns out to be rather less B&D than I though 3 weeks ago…):

Minus 18.1% since 20 January, 2020.

Buffered somewhat by the collapsing Aussie Peso.

Worst ETF performer is my Aussie REIT (representing 3% of my holdings), which is down a full 40%.
/////////////////

On paper that sinking Auzzie Peso makes your numbers look great compared to mine.
Good on ya.

#258 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 10:21 am

#254 Raging Ranter on 03.23.20 at 10:01 am
#244 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 9:00 am

Oh, can someone else please explain exponential growth functions in layman’s terms again?

—————–

I’ll give it a shot, in non-numerical terms. Sometimes expressing it as a story helps.

“As his denial turned into full-blown hysteria and delusion, Sail Away’s commenting frequency increased exponentially.”

——————

Thanks Rage. I was actually sort of joking about wanting an explanation.

What truly interests me is the how you get that Christmas tree in the foam to look so realistic. It’s like magic!

#259 Dharma Bum on 03.23.20 at 10:21 am

Effective Monday morning 239 RBC branches across the country will be dark. – Garth
——————————————————————–
This is the excuse the banks have been waiting for. There has been talk of branch closures for many years now. The only thing stopping them was bad PR. Now, it can be done in the interest of “public health and safety”.

Once the financial benefits to the banks of these closures become evident, they will remain closed, and many more branches will follow suit.

They are all white elephants.

Can you say “Tangerine”?

#260 technical analysis on 03.23.20 at 10:25 am

Paul Volcker is rolling in his grave right now.

#261 Not 1st on 03.23.20 at 10:27 am

Some talking head did a quick and dirty estimate of the costs to carry the US economy during a shut down. This is just worker and company supports, nothing with the stock or bond market.

$4T to May 1, $12T to Aug 1.

Now use a population ratio for Canada. That would be $400B and $1.2T for Canada. That’s a bankrupt nation. Your think we are going to restart the economy in that scenario?

Run the quarantine until April 15, then put the vulnerable under lock and key and let the rest of us go at it restarting the economy and burning through this virus. There will be nothing left at the other end of this if we don’t.

#262 CC on 03.23.20 at 10:27 am

Not saying that some are not panicking, but why is it that those who take the threat seriously are automatically presumed to be extremist and panicking?

Can one not take a threat seriously, because it is a threat? Or should we go through life totally oblivious to danger, never reacting, never trying to mitigate risk?

Curious — what do those who insist our Canadian government (and governments throughout the world) are over-reacting, think we should do? Nothing?

Let the virus run its course without trying to intervene? Let our hospitals get overwhelmed? Let our health care workers get burnt out and sick?

Or do you think there is little risk that will happen?

#263 Kothar on 03.23.20 at 10:30 am

QE is coming soon from BoC.

#264 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 10:35 am

#247 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.20 at 9:21 am
@#245 Howard

“If those celebrities who caught the virus were over 80 ….”

————–

Sooooo……… Cher should be worried?

————–

Haha. I agree with Howard, though, and further add that hale and hearty people during their robust over-80 youthful experience may want to be careful.

#265 CC on 03.23.20 at 10:38 am

Clarification regarding: “Not saying that some are not panicking, but why is it that those who take the threat seriously are automatically presumed to be extremist and panicking? ”

…why is it that those **who scoff at the threat ** presume those who do not are panicking?

There is a place between denial and panic, where real problems get dealt with.

#266 Lambchop on 03.23.20 at 10:38 am

Just a little tidbit for mortgage holders, although it’s probably too late for this little crisis.

Every time you double up a mortgage payment, you can apply that payment to your mortgage as a skip-payment in the future. It’s like free mortgage insurance and you don’t have to apply to skip a payment, you just do it online.

This is with big Blue.

The way I see it, it’s better than buying insurance because it’s free, the double-ups decrease your interest and lower your term while also giving you an easy-to-access safety net for jobloss, illness, injury, PANdemIC…

#267 BS on 03.23.20 at 10:41 am

218 burnaby guy on 03.22.20 at 11:02 pm

If you don’t invest for income over 25 years of retirement I hope you have a big wad of cash. Like millions. – Garth

But you don’t take living expenses out ( e.g. to pay rent) at the end of 25 years. If you’re retired you need it now while your portfolio is tanking. It may take 2-3 years to get back to even. Also within 25 years there probably will be incidents like another 2008 or another virus to tank the market. By the way I don’t have millions in cash , only 700 thou @ 2.75% plus a small portfolio of about 150 thou plus cpp. I can sleep at night.

The question is do you already have money invested or not. If not then sit tight until things smooth out and the virus seems solved. Don’t lock into long term GICs though. Keep cash ready to invest. If you are invested already in equities then at this point it is a little late to be selling. You could take some money off the table and go to cash for say enough for the next 2 years living expenses. The balance leave invested. Always remember you do not need to go all in on an investment. You can be in both equities and GICs. You can split it 50/50 for example so you can ride out market down turns and sleep at night and still get a reasonable return over the long term.

You both miss the point of the response. It’s all about income. Not penury in retirement. Pandemic or not, the real risk is running out of money, not losing it. – Garth

#268 Desjardins Woman on 03.23.20 at 10:41 am

I believe that the stock market has reached its bottom, and is only going to revert to the mid 20s.

#269 not 1st on 03.23.20 at 10:45 am

#263 CC on 03.23.20 at 10:27 am
—-

Funny how there are 3 billion iphones in the world but only 100,000 ventilators.

Our priorities are totally messed. Our systems are vulnerable because we have made them so with globalization and lack of redundancy. In Trudeaus first $125B debt spree, I didn’t see any new hospitals announced did you? Now it going to cost us trillions.

#270 BS on 03.23.20 at 10:49 am

Dr. Oz delivers message to Trump, coronavirus task force: ‘Get us these pills’

“I was stunned. My jaw dropped” Dr. Oz

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-oz-pills-hydroxychloroquine-supply

Those with Trump Derangement Syndrome just relax. Trump will come up with a medication for you as well.

#271 Another Deckchair on 03.23.20 at 10:50 am

@230 Nonplused on 03.23.20 at 12:33 am

You know, truth vs. a good scary story is not a fair match.

The scary story beats truth every time.

Look at the fear that the CBC has been throwing around over the last week or so?

How does truth, reality, and even basic hope stand a chance?

#272 Crazed and a little confused on 03.23.20 at 10:55 am

Hey people,
If you look at history , this is not the worst virus in history and our scientists have far better tools to fight this pandemic war than ever before. Now i have about 5 reits now which is about 50 % lower than my principal even after i rebought it at 10- 20 % lower. Crazy huh.

I sold a lot of my larger positions around dec_ jan 2020. Apple and nividia, bristol, McDonald’s and a&w.
Now keeping cash in US $$ The other stuff even though lower.gives me monthly dividends. Im still working. Im one of those support staff that help hospital researchers get their supplies.
It tough now more than ever. But one has to look at the long view
I understand families need cash to feed and support the kids and selling low is understandable. Just sell the ones you already have gains in.
We will get pass this.
On the bright side, we found out what is required to correct real estate even with zer0 interest rates. I wonder how will then spin it. ” there are great vacation properties in italy or it really close to a hospital. They have a infectious disease wing”

#273 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 10:56 am

#167 Shawn Allen on 03.22.20 at 8:08 pm

Apologise?

My comment stands. No apology. I mean you stated that opinion not three weeks ago but only a few days ago. How is that NOT an idiotic opinion?

It’s not the time to be gentle with those who don’t take this seriously…

———————–

…said Joseph McCarthy… righteously

#274 Shawn Allen on 03.23.20 at 10:58 am

Catching Covid from a cough or sneeze is far worse than by touch?

Crazy Fox at 183 claims a cough or sneeze is by far the worse way to catch covid. He also indicated that wearing a mask is definitely called for to avoid inhaling a cough or sneeze.

He said:

Standing downwind of someone’s cough, a whiff of half a million COVID-19 virus’s is “likely” a short 2 to 3 day incubation period, a few days of mild symptoms followed by a couple days on a ventilator, a day in an ICU, a day in a body bag and a cremation without a funeral.

[In Contrast, getting only] A few thousand virus’s or less means a much longer incubation period, a few days of mild symptoms and unless you are immune compromised, its a mild flu, its over. The reason for the major difference? Viral load.

The longer it takes for a virus attack to increase its viral load killing cells, the longer our immune systems have had to look at this virus, mount a higher white blood cell count and kill it.

In short, its war, numbers count and masks reduce the numbers or viral load buying the immune system time meaning they work! Just like washing hands and cleaning surfaces, it works.

*********************************
Interesting theory and sounds plausible. Any further proof of it regarding the deadliness of sneeze / cough?

If true, we should definitely be wearing masks.

#275 Shawn Allen on 03.23.20 at 11:01 am

How exactly are people catching the virus?

I have not seen ANY discussion of precisely how people are catching this.

Were there actual cases traced to hand shakes.? To someone coughing or sneezing? Any traced to simply being a few feet away from someone with Covid merely breathing? Any traced to surface contacts? Any traced to people eating the same food (prepared or served by a carrier)?

And per Crazy Fox any indicating that catching it from a cough / sneeze is far worse?

#276 akashic record on 03.23.20 at 11:06 am

#256 Phylis

The guy mentions a book written about this.
I will check it out when the pandemic is over.

#277 Crazed and a little confused on 03.23.20 at 11:08 am

Postb# 270 not 1st
You make a excellent point on how many iphones compared to ventilators. Now guess how many ventilators can we buy if we use that same money to buy/ make 1 less nuclear warhead
1 warhead= 10, 000 ventilators plus / minus 100
Do we need another warhead … hell no
Do we need more medical supplies… hell yeah

#278 the Jaguar on 03.23.20 at 11:10 am

As I tumble about and plant indoor seedlings, wash windows, inventory clothing and household items for downsizing purposes, etc., I find I am unable to set aside one comment made this past week. This one:

‘“OSFI expects that banks will use the additional lending capacity to support Canadian businesses and households, and should not use this measure to increase distributions to shareholders or employees or to undertake share buybacks,” the press release said. “Consistent with this, OSFI has today set the expectation for all federally regulated financial institutions that dividend increases and share buybacks should be halted for the time being.”

Is it just me that wonders why OSFI had to warn about the share buybacks? It’s an acknowledgement of the practice which had already been getting a fair amount of airplay. Like saying ” We know the little tricks you have been up to these past few years, so just be sure you don’t use any of this capital release for those nefarious purposes…”
The more I muse on it, the more I feel things cannot return to their previous state when this current crisis subsides. Cat is out of the bag.

#279 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 11:14 am

#275 Shawn Allen on 03.23.20 at 10:58 am

Interesting theory and sounds plausible. Any further proof of it regarding the deadliness of sneeze / cough?

If true, we should definitely be wearing masks.

——————–

Data vs conjecture?

It is no time to be tolerant of examining actual data.

You armpit.

#280 crowdedelevatorcoughz on 03.23.20 at 11:15 am

Ahhemm, err, cough, cough COUGH!!!

Happy, COUGH!, Monday everyone! mind if I just reach past you and press the button for Level 1? Goin’ down to …COUGH!..Starbucks, at least they’re still doing some take out today :)

Cough, cough, COUGH – have a great..COUGH…day!!

#281 Flop... on 03.23.20 at 11:18 am

The latest trend, because we have run out of masks, is to modify a bra.

I can see the attraction.

It’s a 2 for 1 deal.

Also, people can’t tell when you’re acting like a boob…

M45BC

#282 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 11:22 am

“It’s not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters.”

― Epictetus

#283 n1tro on 03.23.20 at 11:24 am

#245 Howard on 03.23.20 at 9:10 am
————————————-

I guess Italy’s healthcare system being overwhelmed and having to ration ventilators is just a hoax according to you?

If those celebrities who caught the virus were over 80 and/or had other health ailments, almost certainly some would have died.
—————-
Isn’t that the point. We are killing the economy over old and sick people who are at a high risk of dying. Let’s take some perspective. Have you seen Taiwan’s reaction to this crisis? So close to the epicenter, yet no school closure, no business shut down, no mass hysteria. Low cases of covid-19. Maybe governments should follow for good examples instead of telling people to skip on lunch dates.

#284 kc on 03.23.20 at 11:25 am

#261 technical analysis on 03.23.20 at 10:25 am

Paul Volcker is rolling in his grave right now.
XXXXXXXX

So is George Carlin ….. <<< saying I told you so ….

#285 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 11:27 am

“Freedom is the only worthy goal in life. It is won by disregarding things that lie beyond our control.”

― Epictetus

#286 Raging Ranter on 03.23.20 at 11:28 am

I think you are right Jaguar. Share buy-backs were illegal in the US until 1982. Now they are getting thoroughly sullied again. Companies that spent billions on share buybacks going cap in hand to the government is just terrible optics. I’m guessing the era of share buybacks is coming to a close. Imagine, stocks might have to be valued based on an assessment of the health of the company again! Some companies might even have to increase dividends! The horrors!!!

But who am I kidding. They’ll use the QE money to find new and creative ways to keep on financial engineering. That’s so much easier than running a solid business and nursing a healthy cash reserve.

#287 jess on 03.23.20 at 11:31 am

helicopters are dumping

Fed to buy as much government debt as needed to aid economy
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/us/2020/03/23/federal-reserve-to-lend-up-to-300b-to-businesses-cities.html

will this reset?
2002 CPI = 100.0

Data Source: Statistics Canada,
======================

the returnees…some had tracking bracelets and of those some removed them breaking their quarantine…3rd wave hitting hong kong china singapore and s. k.

Since March 8, 2020, all inbound travellers via Hong Kong International Airport are required to submi thealth declaration form. To be environmental friendly, travellers are encouraged to submit the form online.(website:www.chp.gov.hk/hdf)After submitting the online form, the system will generate a QR code. Please capture the screen of the QR code, and show it to the staff of the Department of Health upon entering Hong Kong. The QR code is valid for 24 hours.In addition, inbound traveller scan continue to submit the paper form
https://www.dh.gov.hk/eindex.html

Singapore public health

https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

look how they track and test
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/four-more-cases-discharged-23-new-cases-of-covid-19-infection-confirmed

https://www.mom.gov.sg/newsroom/press-releases/2020/0321-89-work-passes-revoked-for-breach-of-entry-approval-and-stay-home-notice-requirements

#288 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 11:32 am

#274 Sail Away on 03.23.20 at 10:56 am
#167 Shawn Allen on 03.22.20 at 8:08 pm

Apologise?

My comment stands. No apology. I mean you stated that opinion not three weeks ago but only a few days ago. How is that NOT an idiotic opinion?

——————-

…said Pontius Pilate to Jesus

#289 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 11:35 am

Is this still that investment blog, Greaterfool.ca, or have I stumbled on to Greaterflu.ca?

Better check that URL

#290 T. on 03.23.20 at 11:38 am

Darnit, my shooting club closed for COVID, but I have new rifles I need to sight in before the zombies come! I should have acted sooner!

#291 Flop... on 03.23.20 at 11:40 am

In Vancouver, you get a garden shed for 500k.

Despite that, in the listing, the real estate agent will crow.

Gardening tools at your fingertips…

M45BC

“Visualizing How Much Home $500K Buys You in Every State.

Half a million dollars can get you over 3,000 square feet of home real estate in the United States, based on the national median price per square feet. That sounds like a big number, but when you consider that the 2018 median size of a new home in America is 2,386 square feet (which is 1,000 square feet largerthan 50 years ago), it’s no surprise that mortgage debt has hit a record-high $14 trillion. However, depending on where you go in America, your $500,000 may stretch further. After all, the first rule of real estate is: “location, location, location.”

Top 5 States with the Most Real Estate Purchased with $500,000

1. Mississippi: 5,208 Sq. Ft. ($98/Sq. Ft.)
2. West Virginia: 5,155 Sq. Ft. ($97/Sq. Ft.)
3. Arkansas: 4,950 Sq. Ft. ($101/Sq. Ft.)
4. Alabama: 4,762 Sq. Ft. ($105/Sq. Ft.)
5. Indiana: 4,630 Sq. Ft. ($108/Sq. Ft.)

Top 5 States with the Least Real Estate Purchased with $500,000

1. Washington, D.C.: 906 Sq. Ft. ($552/Sq. Ft.)
2. Hawaii: 940 Sq. Ft. ($532/Sq. Ft.)
3. California: 1,587 Sq. Ft. ($315/Sq. Ft.)
4. Massachusetts: 1,859 Sq. Ft. ($269/Sq. Ft.)
5. Colorado: 1,931 Sq. Ft. ($259/Sq. Ft.)

https://howmuch.net/articles/how-many-sqft-you-can-buy-500k

#292 bdwy on 03.23.20 at 11:45 am

50% of the highs in play now.

my ‘down’ etf held from feb 05 is up 80+%.

too many are still in cause this happened so fast, how many have yet to see their ‘new’ balances.

crystal ball is clear.

#293 Mattl on 03.23.20 at 11:50 am

#237 Steven Rowlandson on 03.23.20 at 7:26 am
“Tell your children about bravery.”

It takes a loyal wife and a affordable home to do that.
One is a big matter of chance and the other is nonexistent thanks to 70 to 90 years of social engineering and real estate profiteering plus a 40 year old policy of wage suppression in the name of controlling inflation. It is why I am a 59+ year old virgin who lives in his car. Not a loser, just a realist dealing with circumstances devised and arranged by others.

———————————————————

Steven – you and MF should hang out, I think you guys would get along well.

#294 LP on 03.23.20 at 11:55 am

You both miss the point of the response. It’s all about income. Not penury in retirement. Pandemic or not, the real risk is running out of money, not losing it. – Garth

If I’m losing it aren’t I running out of it? My timeline for recovery is pretty short.

F72ON

You lose only when you crystallize a loss. Why would you do that when logic says values will restore over time? You have 10-15 years to live. This pandemic will be over in months. – Garth

#295 not 1st on 03.23.20 at 12:01 pm

#276 Shawn Allen on 03.23.20 at 11:01 am
How exactly are people catching the virus?
—-

Yeah exactly that, we get a lot of stats and curves and hysteria but no practical data on the people who succumb to this. Is community spread saying high across the street or being stuck in the GO train for an hour.

Nope, just lock down and don’t ask any questions. 1984 is here.

#296 The other Lebowski on 03.23.20 at 12:08 pm

Strange action in the markets today. The best of the best dividend names in the US are being liquidated today. I’m guessing somebody big (hedge fund) is insolvent and is being chopped up. Any rumors that might explain this?

#297 Ronaldo on 03.23.20 at 12:19 pm

#295 LP on 03.23.20 at 11:55 am
You both miss the point of the response. It’s all about income. Not penury in retirement. Pandemic or not, the real risk is running out of money, not losing it. – Garth

If I’m losing it aren’t I running out of it? My timeline for recovery is pretty short.

F72ON

You lose only when you crystallize a loss. Why would you do that when logic says values will restore over time? You have 10-15 years to live. This pandemic will be over in months. – Garth
—————————————————————–
This is exactly what I have been telling my wife who this morning again after turning on the TV and listening to all this Covid19 end of world stuff constantly been spewed out by our media, she is again wanting to liquidate her portfolio which is quite substantial.

For about the third time now over the past couple weeks, she told me this morning she is going to call her advisor and tell him to sell it all. I can imagine that you must be going through the same thing with some of your older clents in our age group who are thinking the same thing. I think I may have gotten through to her again but I tell you its a tough battle when you see how the values of these portfolios are melting away. I personally am thinking the opposite in that I see the banks now down over 30% and think to myself, these are getting to be real bargains and maybe getting close to jumping in with spare funds.

#298 fancy_pants on 03.23.20 at 12:23 pm

Still unsure about hyperinflation or a global economic reset? I’m not. Although i confess the situation is sureal b/c this was always an event that was always on the horizon. It is actually here now. We have hardly seen the tip of the iceberg. Buckle up people, things are going to get very chaotic very quickly.

#299 Penny Henny on 03.23.20 at 12:29 pm

The big 5 banks are currently yielding 7% (avg)

#300 Reynolds753 on 03.23.20 at 12:33 pm

This is a very interesting article in today’s New York Times. Whether you agree or not, the Chinese have implemented some very serious and enforced and apparently successful measures in combatting the spread of this virus.

https://nyti.ms/3dkfoCc

#301 jess on 03.23.20 at 12:35 pm

bailout for some loans for another

Trump is never right he should stop talking! oh yeah, the ships are in repair ….does he not understand the future is NOW?
-chloroquine after they said three people in the country overdosed on the drug, in the wake of President Trump’s comments about using it to treat coronavirus.

3 days ago – WASHINGTON — “President Trump on Friday admitted that his enthusiasm for an antimalarial drug unproven.

“I only signed the Defense Production Act to combat the Virus should we need to invoke it in a worst case scenario in the future,” Trump tweeted. “Hopefully there will be no need, but we are all in this TOGETHER!”
Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who called on him to use the Defense Production Act instead of having states get into “a mad bidding war” over supplies.

On Monday, Sens. Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Brian Schatz of Hawaii are introducing a bill to require the President to fully use the Defense Production Act to ensure the necessary supply of medical equipment.
The 1950 law gives the president the ability to force factories to produce key equipment and allocate resources where they are needed. President Trump invoked the bill last week but said he does not plan to use it.
The bill would require the President to ensure the production of at least 500 million N95 respirators, 200,000 ventilators, 20 million face shields, 500 million pairs of medical gloves and 20 million surgical gowns.

The President stressed later Wednesday that he would only use the powers granted under the Defense Production Act “in a worst case scenario.”

Major steps announced include:

QE infinity: open-ended quantitative easing. Just over a week ago, the Fed had set a limit of $700 billion on these bond-buying programs
Fed will start buying commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS)
Two lending facilities to large companies: Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) for new bond and loan issuance, and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) to provide liquidity for existing corporate bonds
Corporate bonds and even bond ETFs could be purchased by the Fed.
Bringing back crisis-era Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) to support the flow of credit to consumers and businesses
Expanding money market mutual fund liquidity facility to include wider range of municipal bonds
Expanding commercial paper credit facility

And the Fed said it expects soon to launch a Main Street Business Lending Program to support small- and medium-sized businesses.

#302 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 12:42 pm

#272 Another Deckchair on 03.23.20 at 10:50 am
@230 Nonplused on 03.23.20 at 12:33 am

You know, truth vs. a good scary story is not a fair match.

The scary story beats truth every time.

Look at the fear that the CBC has been throwing around over the last week or so?

How does truth, reality, and even basic hope stand a chance?
____

The other day I surfed over to the CBC, and pretty much every headline was Covid-19 related.

Great headlines too, like:

“We’re not even counting the dead anymore”.

I should email some suggestions to them for future articles to be used when the virus panic they helped create starts dying off and they start losing traffic:

“Covid-19 deadly mutation certain within days, says expert”

“Crematoriums overwhelmed in Toronto”

“COVID-19 can lay dormant for years, Scientists discover”

#303 Lambchop on 03.23.20 at 12:43 pm

#296 not 1st on 03.23.20 at 12:01 pm

Is community spread saying high across the street or being stuck in the GO train for an hour.

Nope, just lock down and don’t ask any questions. 1984 is here.

___________________

To be fair, there are a lot of people asking questions and using logic and critical thinking, but they are being drowned out by the bleating masses and sensationalistic media. The worst are the sanctimonious, uninformed and emotional people who use shaming tactics to forward their opinions above all others.

Logical thinkers need to speak up, be louder than the sheep.

#304 belly rubs on 03.23.20 at 12:47 pm

#223 Geoffrey Marcy on 03.22.20 at 11:41 pm
What happens to safety deposit boxes at shuttered branches, if you were naive enough to have one? Asking for a friend…

….

Using my amazing ESP powers I was able to determine that you (or the friend) should call the bank.

#305 Toronto_CA on 03.23.20 at 12:49 pm

Update in UK only 154 new cases after 1035 on Saturday and 665 new cases on Sunday. That’s a massive drop. Hope it continues, and again, two days of declining new cases. Social distancing is working, curve flattening, and hopefully no “exponential growth” to come (as it hasn’t shown up yet clearly).

Yay!

#306 Sail away on 03.23.20 at 1:15 pm

#303 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 12:42 pm

——————-

Haha…

Oh, I would definitely join in the headline game. But my tendency is to get too dark too fast and win a DELETE award.

#307 MF on 03.23.20 at 1:31 pm

294 Mattl on 03.23.20 at 11

Thanks !

….

Wait what?

MF

#308 CC on 03.23.20 at 1:40 pm

#304 “The worst are the sanctimonious, uninformed and emotional people who use shaming tactics to forward their opinions above all others.
Logical thinkers need to speak up, be louder than the sheep.”
===============

Yeah, the nerve of those medical and science types forcing their “opinions” on the rest of us who are “critical thinkers” (impressive, despite our lack of education and training).

Who do they think they are? Experts?

Here is an example of one of those “sanctimonious, uninformed and emotional people using shaming tactics” to suggest people shouldn’t be having fun together during their time off from work:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/surgeon-general-has-coronavirus-warning-week-it-s-going-get-n1166421

#309 PicSinh3 on 03.23.20 at 1:47 pm

“You lose only when you crystallize a loss. Why would you do that when logic says values will restore over time? You have 10-15 years to live. This pandemic will be over in months. – Garth”

Hi Garth, Thanks for your advise. I am not selling. I bought some on the way down and will hold. I was thinking retail investors like myself cannot time the market anyways. Pros may be… I read your post the other day later that its not yet time to buy but was already invested by then

#310 Steven Rowlandson on 03.23.20 at 1:48 pm

#294 I am not interested in anything but the straight lifestyle when it comes to matters of sexuality. Anyone that thinks otherwise or thinks alternatives are acceptable are bloody idiots or criminals.

#311 picksinh3 on 03.23.20 at 1:48 pm

“You lose only when you crystallize a loss. Why would you do that when logic says values will restore over time? You have 10-15 years to live. This pandemic will be over in months. – Garth”

————-

Hi Garth, Thanks for your advise. I am not selling. I bought some on the way down and will hold. I was thinking retail investors like myself cannot time the market anyways. Pros may be… I read your post the other day later that its not yet time to buy but was already invested by then

#312 Ace Goodheart on 03.23.20 at 1:50 pm

Interesting read. Have not been here for a while.

We are to some extent “preppers” in so much as we don’t really trust anything we can’t see.

So, when this giant wave of recessionary economics washed over everyone, people had a look when the water went back out, to see who was still standing and who was now submerged.

Glad to report that recessions don’t take your house away (banks do that). As I haven’t had a mortgage for going on ten years’ now, we are still able to keep ourselves dry from the rain and warm from the snow.

That seems to not be the case in respect to a number of our neighbours, who may soon be engaged in panic selling (it will take a few months before everyone has borrowed all they can, and can no longer make their mortgage payments, but it is coming).

Despite the best advise from everyone, we also held on to what is a large amount of cash, choosing not to invest it and rather to collect a pittance of interest on it. We now have enough dough in the oven to last us for at least five years without either of us working. And that is if all of the dividends stop coming in tomorrow (which they won’t).

So when I was kicked out of my $260,000 per year job last week, for the foreseeable future, and the wife was forced to work in a dangerous environment that will more than likely see her contracting COVID-19 and having to self isolate and go on EI, we watched with amusement as people who didn’t know us that well speculated as to how long it would take us to fall.

Answer – probably never. The City of Toronto is deferring everyone’s property taxes (ours are so low, living in a “poor” neighbourhood, that we can afford to keep paying them regardless).

And as I said above, the one thing a recession cannot take from you, ever, no matter how hard it tries, is your paid for house. You get to keep that. And it might be worth a million dollars, or it might be worth ten cents. It doesn’t matter. You can still live in it.

Cheers!

#313 Not So New guy on 03.23.20 at 2:01 pm

Well looks like Bo finally joined us in losing his mind

https://twitter.com/JasonBroughTSN/status/1241743347334537220

#314 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 2:03 pm

#307 Sail away on 03.23.20 at 1:15 pm
#303 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 12:42 pm

——————-

Haha…

Oh, I would definitely join in the headline game. But my tendency is to get too dark too fast and win a DELETE award.
___

Yes it takes a gentle touch, took me years and lots of DELETED’s to find the sweet spot. Sometimes I still blow it. :D

#315 Captain Uppa on 03.23.20 at 2:04 pm

Garth, you are in severe denial.

Again, this is gonna be much worse than 2008.

#316 Not So New guy on 03.23.20 at 2:06 pm

WOW! 315 comments. Is that a new record?

#317 PastThePeak on 03.23.20 at 2:08 pm

#75 Toronto_CA on 03.22.20 at 5:28 pm

Have you guys seen Taiwan? Not even locking anything down, schools are open. 110 miles from mainland China.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Have you seen how Taiwan (and Singapore, + a few others) have handled the pandemic?
– They jumped on the problem right away in *early* Jan (not early March)
– Reduced flights from the infected zones without worrying about “wokeness” and how it might stigmatize people. Started to test everyone for fever coming off such flights (or going right onto the planes)
– Have protocols in place since SARS on how to test, isolate, trace contacts, quarantine.
– Dedicated / funded facilities for such diseases, with services trained in tracing, tracking.
– Had enough protective equipment for their medical staff + adequate amounts for the public
– They wear masks whenever sick, unlike the absolutely dangerous advice from Can & US public (or celebrity) pseudo-doctors advising against their use.

Basically – the complete opposite approach taken by Canada, US, and all of Europe…and the results show. Weak (woke) leadership across the board…

#318 Raging Ranter on 03.23.20 at 2:09 pm

Well, if I were trying to pick a bottom (I’m not), now might be one such opportunity. The Fed announced they will be buying corporate bonds. Buried in that statement are the words “…including ETFs”.

So the Fed will be intervening directly in the stock market. Now that they have the mandate to buy ETFs, why would they limit themselves to just corporate bond ETFs? My guess is index ETFs are next. And if they buy index ETFs, why wouldn’t they just keep buying until all former valuations were restored? I mean, if you’re going to buy for the express purpose of boosting the market, wouldn’t you do just that?

#319 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 2:13 pm

Now is an excellent time to pay attention: deaths have dropped in Italy and the UK, and yet this information is buried under this headline: “Covid pandemic accelerating-WHO” on the BBC.

There are examples of this everywhere in the media. Any positive story or statistic is unashamedly buried and actively under-reported to create the belief that things are worse than they are.

This is what is meant by fake news. Not outright lies, but sophisticated and ongoing obfuscation to suit a narrative. This is real–they not only manufacture consent, but fear.

Virus are real, but the truth is buried. If you can’t think critically about this (and see the buying opportunity that’s approaching) then you should probably stop trying to think.

Instead, maybe go buy some more toilet paper?

#320 Yuus bin Haad on 03.23.20 at 2:19 pm

OK Kids, you heard Prime Minister Dad – “Enough is enough!”

#321 Raging Ranter on 03.23.20 at 2:26 pm

@#309 CC,

The Surgeon General? Seriously? Those are the same cranks who warned against tobacco use!!

#322 Sail away on 03.23.20 at 2:28 pm

#309 CC on 03.23.20 at 1:40 pm

#304 “The worst are the sanctimonious, uninformed and emotional people who use shaming tactics to forward their opinions above all others.
Logical thinkers need to speak up, be louder than the sheep.”

——————–

Yeah, the nerve of those medical and science types forcing their “opinions” on the rest of us who are “critical thinkers” (impressive, despite our lack of education and training).

Who do they think they are? Experts?

Here is an example of one of those “sanctimonious, uninformed and emotional people using shaming tactics” to suggest people shouldn’t be having fun together during their time off from work:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/surgeon-general-has-coronavirus-warning-week-it-s-going-get-n1166421

——————–

No.

You, CC, are one of those sanctimonious and emotional people who greatly enjoys shaming tactics.

The Surgeon General was calm, collected and factual. He gave good information and stayed well away from throwing the President under the bus, which the interviewer tried to lead him to several times.

#323 Toronto_CA on 03.23.20 at 2:37 pm

#311 Steven Rowlandson on 03.23.20 at 1:48 pm
#294 I am not interested in anything but the straight lifestyle when it comes to matters of sexuality. Anyone that thinks otherwise or thinks alternatives are acceptable are bloody idiots or criminals.

___

Can we ban this poster, Garth?

#324 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 2:38 pm

Looks like a pile of us are going to get a holiday in Ontario starting Wed 24…

#325 Lefty on 03.23.20 at 2:39 pm

For those commenters telling us to just trust the experts:

Our best scientific advisors couldn’t see a pandemic coming less than 2 weeks before it’s arrival. Forgive me if I don’t trust them to be able to predict what’s gonna happen in another 2 weeks, their track record thus far has been abysmal.

Feb 28, 2020: WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus advised diplomats in Geneva on Wednesday against speaking of a pandemic: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/who-coronavirus-covid-19-1.5476335

March 11th, 2020: WHO declares a pandemic: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19—11-march-2020

#326 Sail away on 03.23.20 at 2:41 pm

#304 Lambchop on 03.23.20 at 12:43 pm

Logical thinkers need to speak up, be louder than the sheep.

——————–

Don’t worry about being louder.

Just be benevolent and tolerant. Eventually, much like toddlers everywhere, they will walk into the corner of a table and forget about everything except their own immediate discomfort.

No paycheck might do it, haha.

#327 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 2:43 pm

No.

You, CC, are one of those sanctimonious and emotional people who greatly enjoys shaming tactics.

This.

What can’t people be self aware when they’re highly emotional and illogical? It’s not like you have to stop thinking. It really is a choice.

#328 jess on 03.23.20 at 2:50 pm

mmt money theory perhaps another look:
https://www.investopedia.com/modern-monetary-theory-mmt-4588060

“What happens if you were to go to your local IRS office to pay your taxes with actual cash?” wrote MMT pioneer Warren Mosler in his book The 7 Deadly Frauds of Economic Policy.

#329 CC on 03.23.20 at 2:53 pm

#323
“The Surgeon General was calm, collected and factual”

Exactly. That was kind of the point. People need to pay more attention to what experts like him are saying, neither panicking, nor denying we are facing a legitimate threat.

This is not the time to get one’s knickers in a knot over being told what to do and not do, or thinking of it as “shaming” when really what it is, is good, logical, responsible, evidence-based advice, and soon if we don’t follow it – directive.

For example, one needn’t act like an oppositionally defiant disordered youth, saying they are going to lick donuts and hand them out, and cough on everyone just because. That’s the opposite of what the good Doctor and all the other experts are saying.

#330 O caNnABis! on 03.23.20 at 2:57 pm

Holy crap dudes!!

The guvmint is gonna shut down everthing ‘non-essenschal” by tomorrow!!

Better not mean weed stores!

Did I miss something while on my couch….?

#331 Mattl on 03.23.20 at 2:59 pm

#311 Steven Rowlandson on 03.23.20 at 1:48 pm
#294 I am not interested in anything but the straight lifestyle when it comes to matters of sexuality. Anyone that thinks otherwise or thinks alternatives are acceptable are bloody idiots or criminals.

—————————————————-

Settle down, was just a joke.

I have to say your trolling is first level. I used to actually think you were a middle aged guy struggling but the virgin + living in the care gives you away.

#332 Lambchop on 03.23.20 at 3:03 pm

CC, your reading and comprehension skills are an unmitigated failure. Nowhere have I said anything negative about medical experts, doctors, scientists. Those are all examples of logical critical thinking types.

I am speaking of the general public, panicking, and the manipulative media that is feeding into it.

I wonder if you gravitated to the part of my comment that you recognize in yourself though.

Also, do you keep posting under different aliases because you can’t stand behind the things you say?

#333 Trading Economix on 03.23.20 at 3:18 pm

Covid-19 Recession to be Worse than 2008 Crisis
The Covid-19 outbreak could cause a deeper recession than the last financial crisis, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva warned following a conference call of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors today. Georgieva also said that emerging market economies will be hardest hit as they are badly affected by outward capital flows, and that the IMF will be stepping up emergency finance.

#334 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 3:21 pm

#320 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 2:13 pm

Now is an excellent time to pay attention: deaths have dropped in Italy and the UK, and yet this information is buried under this headline: “Covid pandemic accelerating-WHO” on the BBC.

There are examples of this everywhere in the media. Any positive story or statistic is unashamedly buried and actively under-reported to create the belief that things are worse than they are.
___

Yep – lots more dollars in Doom than in recovery. Recovery means the media boom is coming to an end.

Look right here on the GF – tons of peeps snorting this stuff up like cheap crack and losing their sensibilities.

Just about anything can be an apocalyptic event so long as the MSM stuffs enough dime bags to keep the junkies dilated.

#335 Ronaldo on 03.23.20 at 3:26 pm

#220 Ivan the moderate on 03.22.20 at 11:23 pm
https://nowtoronto.com/news/covid19-rent-freeze-toronto/

“Working-class tenants need to put it on the table that we have serious uncertainty and potential financial burdens on the way. Why should our priority be to further enrich our landlords?”
—————————————————————–
What a crock of bs. Many landlords are barely making their mortgage payments from the rent they receive. What makes renters think that the landlord should be the one to subsidize the renters. Even if the landlord can get a break from the bank to not pay the mortgage for a period of time, the interest will have to be paid at some point as it is tacked onto the contract.

#336 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 3:26 pm

#317 Not So New guy on 03.23.20 at 2:06 pm
WOW! 315 comments. Is that a new record?
___

I’ve seen over 400 once.

Last time I asked people what they earn there were 700. – Garth

#337 yeah, Gold on 03.23.20 at 3:27 pm

the lockdown is a scam and its going to get worse.
fear is the virus.

#338 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 3:32 pm

#335 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 3:21 pm

#320 Attrition on 03.23.20 at 2:13 pm

Now is an excellent time to pay attention: deaths have dropped in Italy and the UK, and yet this information is buried under this headline: “Covid pandemic accelerating-WHO” on the BBC.

There are examples of this everywhere in the media. Any positive story or statistic is unashamedly buried and actively under-reported to create the belief that things are worse than they are.
___

Yep – lots more dollars in Doom than in recovery. Recovery means the media boom is coming to an end.

Look right here on the GF – tons of peeps snorting this stuff up like cheap crack and losing their sensibilities.

Just about anything can be an apocalyptic event so long as the MSM stuffs enough dime bags to keep the junkies dilated.

Seriously, eh.

Well, back to the garden for a little sanity and west coast sunshine.

The time to buy is not upon us just yet, but is nearing…

#339 Lost...but not leased on 03.23.20 at 3:34 pm

Looks like Turdeau is gonna do a version of Martial Law soon, based on his tough guy threats…

Turdeau is making less -than- subtle threats re: VACCINES.

Ultimately, what we are seeing is deferral of power to non elected parties such as Chief Medical Officer MD’s .

We now enter Spring….allergy season….people will sneeze and freak out others.

#340 Flop... on 03.23.20 at 3:37 pm

#337 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 3:26 pm
#317 Not So New guy on 03.23.20 at 2:06 pm
WOW! 315 comments. Is that a new record?
___

I’ve seen over 400 once.

Last time I asked people what they earn there were 700. – Garth

/////////////

Yeah I remember them, that’s what ones I always think of.

923 comments for one of them.

I wrote “Who are you” in the box…

M45BC

https://www.greaterfool.ca/?s=Who+are+you

#341 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.23.20 at 3:37 pm

@#317 New guy
“WOW! 315 comments. Is that a new record?”
+++

Not even close.
Just wait for Garth to threaten to quit the blog and sit back for 500 posts begging him not to….
475 of them will be me.

#342 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 3:39 pm

#337 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 3:26 pm
#317 Not So New guy on 03.23.20 at 2:06 pm
WOW! 315 comments. Is that a new record?
___

I’ve seen over 400 once.

Last time I asked people what they earn there were 700. – Garth
____

HaHa, that was the one I was thinking of – you did a chart or something afterwards I think.

I remember Smokie posting “Brag mode on! 400+ comments!”, maybe that’s were I got the 400 from.

#343 Lost...but not leased on 03.23.20 at 3:45 pm

#336 Ronaldo on 03.23.20 at 3:26 pm
#220 Ivan the moderate on 03.22.20 at 11:23 pm
https://nowtoronto.com/news/covid19-rent-freeze-toronto/

“Working-class tenants need to put it on the table that we have serious uncertainty and potential financial burdens on the way. Why should our priority be to further enrich our landlords?”
—————————————————————–
What a crock of bs. Many landlords are barely making their mortgage payments from the rent they receive. What makes renters think that the landlord should be the one to subsidize the renters. Even if the landlord can get a break from the bank to not pay the mortgage for a period of time, the interest will have to be paid at some point as it is tacked onto the contract.

===================================

Seems to recall just before this Virus Fear Porn we had all sort of SJW arm- in -arm with natives blocking pipelines..rail-lines etc. What happened to them? Is there a connection??? ie co-ordinated attack?

Re Tenants…(and myself and family once landlords)what I will predict is anarchy…there will be people taking the cue to say “F the landlord”…

How many cheques will Gov’t cut to assist renters…given a reasonable presumption we have likely passed a point of no return whereby much of the economy is permanently hooped and it will take a looooooong time for what’s left to recover.

#344 LP on 03.23.20 at 3:53 pm

#295 LP on 03.23.20 at 11:55 am

If I’m losing it aren’t I running out of it? My timeline for recovery is pretty short.

F72ON

You lose only when you crystallize a loss. Why would you do that when logic says values will restore over time? You have 10-15 years to live. This pandemic will be over in months. – Gart

Nowhere did I say anything about cashing out. And I would never consider trying to handle my investments by myself because I have no skill or talent for that at all. However, when I see my portfolio melting away as it has been lately it does give me pause. I have to ask myself, can I continue to draw down monthly as I have been? Though as to your estimation of my remaining timeline, from your mouth to God’s ears!

#345 Phylis on 03.23.20 at 4:22 pm

Stay low market. lets have some drips turn to drops.

#346 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 4:30 pm

#341 Flop… on 03.23.20 at 3:37 pm

Yeah I remember them, that’s what ones I always think of.

923 comments for one of them.

M45BC

https://www.greaterfool.ca/?s=Who+are+you

____

#343 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 3:39 pm
#337 IHCTD9 on 03.23.20 at 3:26 pm

I’ve seen over 400 once.

Last time I asked people what they earn there were 700. – Garth
____

I remember Smokie posting “Brag mode on! 400+ comments!”, maybe that’s were I got the 400 from.

_____

From Flop’s link, post #1:

#1 Smoking Man on 08.29.16 at 6:22 pm
Brag fest on…… 400 comments.

HAha! – not bad, sneaking up on 4 years ago!

#347 Bgs on 03.23.20 at 5:52 pm

This war will unfold like every other in history. The poor will die by the thousands, and the rich will profit.

Already you’re seeing the groundwork being laid to send people back to work to save the economy. The working class will be marched into battle against the unseen enemy, while their betters will stay safe behind the front lines. The poor will be admonished to show courage while the wealthy sequester themselves in their secluded estates.

Eventually a vaccine or cure will be found. Millions of working families will by then be destroyed. Killed by the virus, torn apart by despair, bankrupted by medical costs, swindled by con men selling snake oil and miracle water. The investor class will see their losses made up in a year or two. The most unscrupulous will profit obscenely. The recovery will be used as justification to keep wages low and job security non-existent for a decade.

#348 Jager on 03.23.20 at 6:56 pm

Crypto coming soon to a fiat near you…
https://www.coindesk.com/house-stimulus-bills-envision-digital-dollar-to-ease-coronavirus-recession

Will government sanctioned crypto outlaw btc, xrp, eth, etc?

#349 robbieparker on 03.24.20 at 12:09 am

going viral

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174

please share…Godbless