Hello? McFly?

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

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Dumping on commodities and emerging markets at the moment is like shooting fish in a barrel.

Because of the coronavirus, global growth is at a standstill with an outright recession being a virtual certainty. Meanwhile, commodity prices have been dropping faster than Dow Jones futures during a Donald Trump address to the nation. The oil price alone is down more than 60% so far this year.

I last highlighted commodities and emerging markets on this blog in December 2018, and as compelling and beautifully persuasive as my argument might have been, apparently the rest of the world didn’t see things quite the same way. Emerging markets have declined 12% since the posting whereas global equities overall have declined only 6%.

However, the underperformance of emerging markets serves to illustrate an important lesson for portfolio managers: learn to be comfortable holding positions that underperform. Every portfolio, if it’s properly diversified, will have lagging components.

Now, do I wish I could rev my DeLorean to 88 mph and revisit our emerging markets position of several years ago (and quietly delete my blog post from December 2018)? Of course. But my inability to do so illustrates the point of maintaining diversification—you will make forecasting and timing errors, but if you’re managing assets prudently, these errors should never cripple overall performance. Emerging markets sit at a 4–6% weighting in our client portfolios.

Emerging market equities have obviously failed to outperform, but we were smart enough to avoid a more considerable wager of, say, 15–20% in deference to their inherent risk and volatility.

We continue to feel that there’s an unusual disconnect between an eventual recovery in global economic growth and the current commodity price and emerging market index levels, especially in light of the massive structural changes occurring within China.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which represents a basket of commodities ranging from copper and oil to soybeans and sugar, remains almost 40% below its lows of the financial crisis.

Is this justified? The coronavirus is scary, of course, and much is unknown. However, it doesn’t threaten the very fabric of capital markets in the way that the financial crisis did. China, in short order, has gotten its coronavirus infection rate under control and life is slowly returning to normal. Does anyone believe that the US, with less than a third of China’s population and considerably more health care infrastructure, won’t be able to accomplish the same? And here’s another simple example of the difference between the financial and coronavirus crises: Americans, rightly so, are being encouraged to spend more time at home, but their home itself isn’t collapsing in value by 40% as they’re sitting inside it. Massive consumer leverage and reckless lending, while not cleansed from the US economy, are problems of another era.

Bloomberg Commodity Index past 20 years – commodity prices remain massively below financial-crisis lows.

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

From a longer-term perspective, China, which makes up by far the largest weighting in our emerging markets ETF, continues to urbanize at a ridiculous pace (see chart). Since 2000, China’s urbanization rate has increased from 35% to almost 60%. This trend will moderate only slightly in the coming decade. As a point of comparison, the US urbanization needle has barely moved since 2000, increasing from 79% to only 82%. An urban consumer is far wealthier, of course, earning 3-4 times what a rural consumer earns. Urban consumers also have far more expensive tastes. This is a long-term trend that should be capitalized on.

China population urbanization rate 1968-2018

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Further, the copper price, which is an excellent barometer for the global economy because it’s used in just about everything from cellphones and dishwashers to cars and building materials, has obviously declined in value but to a far lesser extent than emerging market equities. In 2008, the copper price plunged 54% and emerging market equities dropped an almost identical 53%. Over the past two months, things obviously haven’t been pretty with the copper price down 13%, but emerging market equities have fallen a far more dramatic 26% possibly indicating an overreaction to current events. Needless to say, valuations for emerging market stocks remain very attractive relative to those of developed markets.

Clearly, I can’t tell you the exact moment when all of these factors will reach an inflection point and translate into higher returns for commodity prices and emerging market equites, but I do know that reversals of trend are usually abrupt and last for extended periods. Emerging market equities, for instance, gained 37% annually from end-2002 to end-2007 and gained 46% annually from end-2008 to end-2010. If we were to adopt a zero-exposure stance to emerging markets, we would almost certainly be caught wrong-footed and miss a good chunk of any future rallies.

Knowing, of course, that we also lack the incredible inventions of Emmett Lathrop Brown, we build our portfolios with minimal concentration risk to lessen the impact of bad timing. But, at the same time, it’s easy to get left behind during a recovery rally, so having zero emerging market exposure wouldn’t be prudent. So, with a longer-term view in mind, if your diversified portfolio currently lacks an emerging market ETF, now might be the time to hold your nose and take a nibble.

So, be accepting of your underperforming assets. No one bats a 1,000 in this business. This acceptance will ensure that you don’t entirely neglect risky assets in your portfolio. Risk cuts both ways. An emerging market and commodity price rally will eventually occur. Don’t get left behind.

Lesson’s over. Now make like a tree and get outta here!

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

260 comments ↓

#1 Emile on 03.21.20 at 11:03 am

@Doug — The only thing about EM is there is *always* a crisis that knocks them out. Routinely.

#2 joblo on 03.21.20 at 11:06 am

Dude, you believe? “China, in short order, has gotten its coronavirus infection rate under control and life is slowly returning to normal.”

uh huh and I believe this person will help guide us through:

The Minister of Middle Class Prosperity (French: Ministre de la Prospérité de la Classe Moyenne) is a Minister of the Crown in the Canadian Cabinet. This ministry was introduced in the 29th Canadian ministry under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Salary: $264,400 (2019)
Formation: 20 November 2019

#3 Gino on 03.21.20 at 11:08 am

What about hyperinflation? It’s likely on its way. I’ve lost $50K in my ETF. My house and condo values hasn’t yet changed. Still getting income from condo. I wish I had put my money into a 3.75% GIC from Oaken 5 years ago instead of the ETF. I’ve lost $50K!

#4 TurnerNation on 03.21.20 at 11:29 am

Folks we have just now witnessed the largest corporate takeover in history. Of the World.
All those new world order technology companies, we’re glued to their screen and fun algo generated content.
They now run the world.

Look around your empty big city streets.
UBER and Lyft rule the tarmac delivery people, food.
Amazon.com delivery surged.
People trapped in their homes on Apple, Netflix.
Facebook and more. That all there is.

5G every dozen metres is no mystery. Fast rollout as mobile phones will be used to enforce distance and travel. I always thought that Carbon Permits would control this. Same same.
Small business is no longer allowed. The government shut it down in front of our willing scared eyes. In thr 60s if you mentioned Nuke it would trigger. Today? Let me say ventilator.
I gave up my right for that curve.

#5 Flop... on 03.21.20 at 11:35 am

Robax, what are your thoughts on India.

After the market slid 5% a few weeks ago I went and did my TSFA contribution for the year as scheduled.

Slaughterhouse since then.

I then remembered a few years ago when things were getting frothy just to put one contribution in HISA.

So, at some stage, I am going to have another kick at the can.

Of all the funds that have taken a kicking, I keep coming back to India equity fund.

Massive under-performer the last decade, but if the country comes out of this relatively unscathed population wise, and maybe gets its stuff together manufacturing wise, sticks to fighting Pakistan just with a cricket ball, then maybe, just maybe they can take the next step up the ladder.

Ah crap, my wife of Indian descent heard me muttering the word Pakistan.

Just like that I’m sleeping on the couch…

M45BC

#6 TurnerNation on 03.21.20 at 11:44 am

Everything old is new again.
There will be many job for the masses.
Backbreaking labor in fields, factories etc as TFW are banned. Feudal times. The boss will be an app owned by say Google.
Paid in E-currency.
A total technology take over.

#7 Dave on 03.21.20 at 11:56 am

Can you pls explain how banks set interest rates?

BOC sets a benchmark and our banks then proportional lend based on this rate?

I’ve read several articles recently where mortgage rates will go up because of loan defaults and the 6 month payment holiday.

Aren’t loans insured so no losses for banks

#8 VicPaul on 03.21.20 at 11:56 am

Thanks Doug, good insight and great timing – I was thinking of picking up a few shares of an EM ETF (have owned VEE[FTSE] for years) but think I should have some Korean exposure – how about ZEM [MSCI]?
Thumb up?
We here in Vic are diligently practicing social distancing on the golf course – gimme putt range has been extended – no rakes in bunkers, ball washers removed, Pro shop closed – members just give a wave for check-in. Good to be outside…virtually alone for hundreds of metres. Stay diligent with our handwashing/face-touching everyone.

M56BC

#9 Jim on 03.21.20 at 11:57 am

Lol. Yes his house is worth 40% less. And then some (see Detroit). If you can’t see that coming, I’m not sure what you can ever see. Diversification is good, but shouldn’t be the crutch used to invest in overvalued assets. If you cannot value assets properly, you will always lose. And if you can’t see that severe deflation is coming followed by massive money printing, then only government programs can help you.

#10 MF on 03.21.20 at 12:03 pm

Although i hope it’s true, i think we should view and interpret all statistics from China cautiously.

Ask yourself the question: do you think the totalitarian leadership there has anything to gain from telling the world they were efficient and effective at getting a difficult situation under control?

MF

#11 How long until its over on 03.21.20 at 12:04 pm

The overarching issue is that until there is a cure people will continue to get ill, and as the healthcare capacity ebbs and flows around the maximum we will continue to see restrictions on businesses for months to come creating huge uncertainty. Could this be “over” in 2-3 months? Maybe? Not likely though

#12 Asiakid on 03.21.20 at 12:08 pm

“Does anyone believe that the US, with less than a third of China’s population and considerably more health care infrastructure, won’t be able to accomplish the same?”

Yeh, that arrogance/ignorance right there is another reason why I wouldn’t bet on America outperforming China in speed to recovery from Coronavirus. Forget about the differences in cultural mindset of order following or the leadership, let’s talk about the medical care system in the US. Is it good? Certainly if you are the .1% or the medically insured as an employee of goldman or similar. But how about the others who go for testing and end up getting screwed on their A&E bill for various services at a variety of hospitals and the general fear of getting screwed with misc expenses at the hospital. What type of deterrent effect does thst have for seeking help and how does that compound with the inconsistent concern of the general populace given a variety of factors (including which was trump’s earlier messages of downplaying the urgency of the matter).

As well, good ol Canada looks fantastic as well. I love watching videos of Dr. Henry talk about increasing Coronavirus infections in BC while not wearing a mask and last week’s sage advice to not seek testing if you have travelled internationally recently and are feeling unwell.

But go ahead, reason to yourself why America is so much different and better. Pretty sure the smartest people in the room wouldn’t bet their money on America to handle this more smoothly than China.

#13 Lee on 03.21.20 at 12:10 pm

Forget investing. Story out of Ottawa today says over 400 Ottawa bus drivers on sunshine list making 100K or more plus 30% for benefits. Top driver made$179,000. On other hand, City of Burlington looking to hire a lawyer for 100K. Just sayin.

#14 Andrew on 03.21.20 at 12:11 pm

Any evolving thoughts on bitcoin, Doug? Yes obviously high risk but curious in general.

#15 Copper on 03.21.20 at 12:15 pm

Further, the copper price, which is an excellent barometer for the global economy because it’s used in just about everything from cellphones and dishwashers to cars and building materials, has obviously declined in value but to a far lesser extent than emerging market equities. In 2008, the copper price plunged 54% and emerging market equities dropped an almost identical 53%. Over the past two months, things obviously haven’t been pretty with the copper price down 13%, but emerging market equities have fallen a far more dramatic 26% possibly indicating an overreaction to current events.

_______________________________________________

I might be mistaken but wasn’t copper worth about twice what was worth a month ago, before it crashed during the GFC in 2009?

Might explain the difference in percentage drops but meh, what do I know? BattleBots is about to start.

#16 Brumbled Potatoes on 03.21.20 at 12:18 pm

‘Does anyone believe that the US, with less than a third of China’s population and considerably more health care infrastructure, won’t be able to accomplish the same?‘ (raises hand) Yes. At this time the US does not have the centralized leadership willing to do what is necessary to suppress this virus. (We could be doing much more here for that matter). Partisan infighting is costing the US precious time. Based on my perception of slowly the US seems to be responding thus far, per capita it’s going to be much worse in the US than it was in China. It’s a crying shame given how much lead time the world has had since knowing about the Wuhan outbreak and the suppression/ mitigation strategies in the rest of the world. It’s going to be bad.

#17 Russ on 03.21.20 at 12:22 pm

Okay. I got this for you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDevd7O2fq8

Cheers, R

#18 Adios on 03.21.20 at 12:25 pm

Couldn’t help commenting on the look of disbelief the
Canadians will have on their faces when they see the
35 year old 737-200 show up to rescue them in Casablanca.Of all the aircraft currently grounded by Air Canada and Westjet that easily can fly this mission non stop Canezuela sends this POS that requires 3 stops(with tailwinds).Bet this company is owned by a friend of Turdea who promised a pig can fly if presented with lipstick.Its an embarrassment to Canadians.

#19 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.21.20 at 12:29 pm

I have changed my view of the virus. I can admit it, I was wrong.
I knew China was lying. We all knew it. We wanted the 1% death rate so badly. They told us what we were lusting to hear and we bought it. Now we are behind.

Two weeks ago I was scared for the economy and my portfolio.
Well the economy has been wiped out and so has my portfolio.
I don’t care because now I am scarred of the virus. Truly and completely scarred. I have friends who are first responders and 2 family members that are nurses. What they are preparing for is apocalyptic. They are fully expecting these scinarios they are training for to begin to play out next week.
This is a bigger crisis than WWII. By a mile. This is the defining crisis of our generation(S).
There will be no US election in November.
America’s men and women in uniform will be called home soon.
Forget about your portfolios and worry about you and yours health.
Good luck to you all.

#20 Karlhungus on 03.21.20 at 12:33 pm

This is heavy

#21 wallflower on 03.21.20 at 12:36 pm

Weird that China — with world’s most advanced public infrastructure and largest number of large cities and most advanced cities, e.g., Shenzhen — is even in the emerging category.

Back to RE,
Dear Banks – do not extend mortgage relief to specuvestors – only owner occuppieds.

#22 tommy barber on 03.21.20 at 12:37 pm

HI-
Your a fortiori argument that if China can pull out of Covid -19 quickly the USA should do so even more is
flawed if the China data is bogus.

Why would Italy, far away, fare so poorly as to have more death’s than a country 30-40 times larger and be the very source of the Covid.

I agree with the rest of your article.

thank you

#23 Damifino on 03.21.20 at 12:40 pm

Another thing that gives me a warm glow about copper is that viruses die on it’s surface after no more than four hours contact. Even greenish oxidized copper. It creates ions that blow viruses to pieces.

What’s not to love about that?

#24 CROSSBORDERSHOPPER on 03.21.20 at 12:41 pm

TRYING TO CALL THE 18333812725 NUMBER SO I CAN GET BENEFITS, MORE BENEFITS, GOVERNEMENT BENEFITS, MORE CHILD TAX BENEFIT, MORE GST, AND OF COURSE AS SELF EMPLOYEED I AM BURDENED BY THE WORLD NOW AND I HAVE TOILET PAPER ENVY FOR ALL THE PEOPLE WHO STALKED UP SO I NEED MONEY, MORE MONEY FROM THE GOVERNEMENT SO I CAN BUY MORE TOILET PAPER.
I AM ACTUALLY ENJOYING THIS HISTERIA, ITS KINDA ENTERTAINING,
SP 500 SPY AT 200 IS THE NEXT STOP. THATS 40% OFF THE HIGH, THEN YOU CAN START LOOKING, BUT THIS THING CAN OVERSHOOT ON THE DOWNSIDE, IF BOEING, HEDGE FUNDS, ETC START DOMINO EFFECTING EACH OTHER.
OR WE SIMPLY WORK FOR THE GOVERNMENT AND THE GOVERNMENT OWNS EVERYTHING WHICH I PROPOSED BEFORE AND PEOPLE SHOT ME DOWN.
CAPITALISM IS GREAT WE ALL BENFIT, THEN GREED OVERRIDES EVERYTHING, THEN WE GET SICK AND EVERYONE MONEY GOES AWAY JUST LIKE A PERSON THEY END UP IN THE RETIREMENT HOME, ALONE, AND POOR JUST LIKE OUR ENTIRE SOCIETY.
LOOKING AT A REFINANCE AT 1.99% OR LOWER,

#25 JSS on 03.21.20 at 12:42 pm

Doug, do you see oil prices going up in the future? Will Canadian oil companies like Suncor and CNRL end up bankrupt if this low oil price keeps going on?

#26 DON on 03.21.20 at 12:48 pm

#177 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 12:09 am

#149 DON on 03.20.20 at 9:26 pm

#111 Attrition on 03.20.20 at 8:03 pm

*************
@ Attrition

Every wonder why Japan is so eager to open things back up? Owelympics. The chatter has just begun to force Japan to postpone.

And the Virus and Oil war are just catalysts.

#27 Yukon Elvis on 03.21.20 at 12:48 pm

China, in short order, has gotten its coronavirus infection rate under control and life is slowly returning to normal.
………………………..

Do you also believe that our inflation rate is 2% ?

#28 Lamb Chops In A Delicate Cognac Dijon Cream Sauce on 03.21.20 at 12:49 pm

“However, it doesn’t threaten the very fabric of capital markets in the way that the financial crisis did.”

But it threatens consumption on a grand scale. If people can’t get out and spend, it cuts right at the basic fabric of a consumer economy. Consumer spending makes up almost 70% of the U.S. economy so this has the potential to be worse than the financial crisis.

#29 NoName on 03.21.20 at 12:58 pm

#5 Flop… on 03.21.20 at 11:35 am

If just that get you on a couch, make sure that you don’t bring any of those pink himalayan salt. Its not from himalayas…

#30 So we still hold on 03.21.20 at 12:58 pm

I understand you are far better analyst then the general population. I do not care about your wrong call on EM
I am more concerned about Canada!

Please do not take this personally but you are a broker and therefore you may not see the forest for the trees.
Right now most financial newsletters are talking the D word and we have much further to fall
Your balanced portfolio? Stocks are down, preferred are down, bonds are down commodities are down, and gold and oil are down.

So my little mind says everyone needs waist disposal Wcn. but the stock is down, everyone needs electricity the stock is down AQN
Everyone needs oil. But ENB is down. Okay IPL is a great company I understand being down. But what the heck they all pay solid dividends.
Is that not your argument for preferred they pay a dividend..
And Royal Bank hardly moved on Friday’s brief rally.
Something fishy in the banking?
So my long winded point you keep talking yep the market will recover and go up and up.
But let’s look at the blood in the streets, people are panicking, 500,000 people applied for EI 10 million Americans unemployed.
Maybe just maybe you are wrong.
This will be over in two months but the market is far from being recovered. People will not be going back to work for months
Airlines will fly in May but who will fly?
Who will have money? Everyone is using their savings
And you and Garth rightly point out over half the population has no savings.
Right now institutions are moving the market with wild swings.
I am not a doomer , but sometimes we need a reality check as we have never seen times like this and stop comparing this to 9/11 and 2008 it’s not the same.
Thank you for letting me rant I am fairly depressed
Have a great weekend!

#31 NoName on 03.21.20 at 1:00 pm

missing link

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/10/03/763960436/pakistan-wants-you-to-know-most-pink-himalayan-salt-doesnt-come-from-india

#32 Ian on 03.21.20 at 1:03 pm

While 2008 and 2020 are both different. If Canadians with record household debt, inflated home prices and high unemployment combined with a recession and low interest rates do not lower home prices significantly… Then when would be the best time to buy a home. As for me, I see any dip being temporary in house prices and then another possible 10 year rally. While I agree home prices are high and it’s about balancing risk. My balanced portfolio following the rules on this blog fell 20% homes are holding. I dunno the answer. But in terms of housing, they appear safer investments in Canada than perhaps anywhere…. Still happy to rent. But it is interesting….

#33 BillyBob on 03.21.20 at 1:04 pm

It’s true Chinese stats are not exactly God’s Truth. But assuming for a moment that “China has contained the virus” is true: what does that mean? They’re already seeing flareups of new cases from outside the country. There is still no vaccine. So does that mean they’ve contained it with draconian social measures that must be maintained in perpetuity? If so, hardly business as usual then, is it?

With regards to copper, it may very well be the big winner in the virus aftermath. interesting article about the anti-viral/bacterial properties of copper…there is reason so many things used to be made from it!

https://www.fastcompany.com/90476550/copper-kills-coronavirus-why-arent-our-surfaces-covered-in-it

“Emerging markets have declined 12% since the posting whereas global equities overall have declined only 6%.”

By what methodology is that 6% figure derived, please? My globally diversified equity portfolio begs to differ. Perhaps you meant “6% per day for the last 2 weeks”…? lol

#34 Blue collar Bill on 03.21.20 at 1:05 pm

DELETED

#35 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 1:08 pm

Time to put ’em all on an island, so the rest of the world can carry on with business as usual?

I mean, it’s not unprecedented.

Why should billions suffer economically so hundreds of thousands won’t catch what is, for 80-90%, a mild cold?

Overwhelmed hospitals for a few months? Big deal. Convert arenas to triage. Also not unprecedented.

It’ll be time to at least posit these questions in official circles soon, as at least a wake up call to call a few bluffs.

The sooner the nanny state overreaction is put in check, the sooner things return to normalcy.

#36 Sail Away on 03.21.20 at 1:16 pm

#19 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.21.20 at 12:29 pm

…SLAP!… Relax

#37 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.21.20 at 1:19 pm

There will be no normal anytime soon because of this media induced outright hysteria. This will happen every flu season now.

Because sheep.

The good part about all of this is that it’s highly likely supply chains will be brought closer to home.

China is screwed for a long, long time.

#38 Joseph R. on 03.21.20 at 1:21 pm

#10 MF on 03.21.20 at 12:03 pm

Ask yourself the question: do you think the totalitarian leadership there has anything to gain from telling the world they were efficient and effective at getting a difficult situation under control?

MF

—————————————————————

You summed up Fox News for the past 2 months:

“Liberal plot, like Russia and impeachment to make Trump look bad.”

#39 Sail Away on 03.21.20 at 1:25 pm

My goodness, people. If this country were ever invaded, we’d probably immediately melt into quivering, oozing capitulation based on this simple exercise.

Reach behind and feel the middle of your back. A backbone? Good. Use it.

#40 Flop... on 03.21.20 at 1:27 pm

NoName, as you say.

Definitely press play…

M45BC

https://www.metatube.com/en/videos/447444/On-the-Couch-SNL/

#41 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 1:34 pm

China is going to be losing urban citizens after this episode. Supply chains will move to the US and other countries and a lasting recession will descend on the country. Most of its workforce has been imports from the country side. After a good look at Chinese command and control structure in the cities after the outbreak, I suspect that will have been enough for a lot of people too. Nobody is going to take a chance at this happening again.

A rural customer may be less wealthy but they are much better insulated from economic shock and its repercussions including pathogens.

You are missing the trend right in front of your eyes and that’s a North American super state forming, Mexican (instead of Chinese) labour, Canadian resources and US entrepreneurship, security and finance gluing it together.

#42 GrumpyPanda on 03.21.20 at 1:35 pm

Remember about a week ago when I questioned the sanity of teachers organizing together in large groups to protest their concerns? Anyone willing to support that behavior now? Their bargaining position has just gotten a lot weaker.

#43 Joseph R. on 03.21.20 at 1:42 pm

#3 Gino on 03.21.20 at 11:08 am
What about hyperinflation? It’s likely on its way. I’ve lost $50K in my ETF. My house and condo values hasn’t yet changed. Still getting income from condo. I wish I had put my money into a 3.75% GIC from Oaken 5 years ago instead of the ETF. I’ve lost $50K!

——————————————————–

If you didn’t sell your ETF, you didn’t lose any money. They provided you with dividends income: You are richer holding them then if you didn’t buy them. What did you do with the dividends?

Inflation is good for stock values: If you predict high inflation to happen, hold on to your shares (ETF)!

WTI hit $5 last trading session: Where’s the hyperinflation?

#44 Blue Collar Bill on 03.21.20 at 1:43 pm

DELETED

#45 Doug Rowat on 03.21.20 at 1:48 pm

#12 Asiakid on 03.21.20 at 12:08 pm

But go ahead, reason to yourself why America is so much different and better. Pretty sure the smartest people in the room wouldn’t bet their money on America to handle this more smoothly than China.

Carl Icahn just increased his holdings in Hertz Global and Warren Buffett just added to Delta Air Lines.

And you think emerging markets are risky in this environment?

I’ve heard that they’re smart. I’ve also heard that they’re successful.

–Doug

#46 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 1:51 pm

A buddy asked why Russia isn’t suffering paralyzing hysteria and seeing States in states of emergency imposing statewide lock-downs like we’re seeing in other States. They’re lying about the numbers, he said.

Maybe, I said, or they just don’t care. Russians shrug stuff like this off, accept the culling of their weakest, and pour another round of wodka.

By comparison, we are the national equivalent of a housewife jumping onto a chair, lifting her skirt, and screaming.

Sail, you mentioned backbone. That is a rare, precious and oft-maligned resource in this land.

We seem to prefer quivering as a response to any risk or event.

Maybe that’ll change, but I have my doubts.

#47 Doug t on 03.21.20 at 1:56 pm

Hopefully this pulls this country together stronger better

STAY STRONG

#48 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 2:00 pm

#19 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.21.20 at 12:29 pm

—–

Use reason and stop giving in to panic. markets got creamed but only weak hands sold and vultures are picking the carcass now.

For the virus, its way overblown. Right now we have lots of places to put people, schools are empty, office towers and hotels vacated, churches. Every city probably has simlar facilities that could be converted. We have military, police, first responders, retired docs, medical students and nurses that we can throw at it. They weren’t prepping school rooms in my kids school to become makeshift hospitals when I took them home.

Again we are whipping up hysteria like its the bubonic plague combined with an asteroid coming but not doing the necessary planning for it.

Doesn’t pass the smell test at all.

#49 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.21.20 at 2:01 pm

Here’s some stats;

From 2013/14 to 2016/17 Italy had 68,000 deaths related to the flu.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

Influenza lasts on solid surfaces from 24-48 hours.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-survives-on-surfaces-how-to-protect-yourself/

Death rate for covid-19 for young adults 20 – 44 is 0.1% out of a sample of 704.. or 1 persons..
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/

Were you afraid to go outside 2 weeks ago? If you are now, you should have been terrified…

#50 Shinzai on 03.21.20 at 2:02 pm

It’s just day 22, and look at the fracking mess.

So much leverage from so much greed and hubris in every corner just starting to unwind.

The BIG REVELATION is unfolding and will accelerate as the tide goes out as if from a tsunami sucking beaches out into the ocean.

The bottom is far from sight.

All around us is the denial of what’s coming next…

#51 Damifino on 03.21.20 at 2:06 pm

#35 Attrition

Overwhelmed hospitals for a few months? Big deal. Convert arenas to triage. Also not unprecedented.
———————————–

While we’re at it let’s convert city maintenance crews into doctors and nurses. And I’m sure with a few small alterations a Dyson could double as a respirator. Come on people, where’s that ‘can do’ spirit?

#52 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 2:09 pm

#41 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 1:34 pm
You are missing the trend right in front of your eyes and that’s a North American super state forming, Mexican (instead of Chinese) labour, Canadian resources and US entrepreneurship, security and finance gluing it together.

One of the most astute observations ever posted.

#53 Stone on 03.21.20 at 2:20 pm

#27 Yukon Elvis on 03.21.20 at 12:48 pm
China, in short order, has gotten its coronavirus infection rate under control and life is slowly returning to normal.
………………………..

Do you also believe that our inflation rate is 2% ?

———

Yukon Elvis: 1 Doug: 0

Sorry. I couldn’t help myself. It was pretty good.

#54 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.21.20 at 2:29 pm

“Lesson’s over. Now make like a tree and get outta here!”

Lesson’s over? Ha, the lesson is just beginning.

#55 Stone on 03.21.20 at 2:30 pm

I last highlighted commodities and emerging markets on this blog in December 2018, and as compelling and beautifully persuasive as my argument might have been, apparently the rest of the world didn’t see things quite the same way. Emerging markets have declined 12% since the posting whereas global equities overall have declined only 6%.

———

Why is it when things are going well, portfolio managers quote on a YTD (year to date) basis? And when things are going badly, they quote things on a multi year basis?

I only consider things on a YTD basis, good or bad. You know, an apples to apples comparison.

#56 Bobho on 03.21.20 at 2:32 pm

Look whatz goin down with bondz, they be getting shellacked as nobody can pay.

#57 technical analysis on 03.21.20 at 2:35 pm

“However, the underperformance of emerging markets serves to illustrate an important lesson for portfolio managers: learn to be comfortable holding positions that underperform.”

_____________________________

that’s an absolutely insane comment. wow.

#58 Dr V on 03.21.20 at 2:40 pm

5 flop – I only hold EMs in an index fund. By country they are all still too small and volatile to hold unless
you have multi millions. The problem with most
indexes is China dominates them. Time for China to
have its own index. I think India is 10% of the MSCI
EM index. There may be another index that excludes
China.

#59 Doug Rowat on 03.21.20 at 2:42 pm

#19 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.21.20 at 12:29 pm

This is a bigger crisis than WWII. By a mile.

Anyone a fan of Airplane!? Get a hold of yourself.

–Doug

#60 Joseph R. on 03.21.20 at 2:44 pm

#41 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 1:34 pm

“A rural customer may be less wealthy but they are much better insulated from economic shock and its repercussions including pathogens.”

—————————————————————

No.

“Ontario alone is expecting approximately 20,000 workers to arrive in Canada in coming weeks to assist with spring preparation and planting as well as work in our processing plants,” the Ontario Federation of Agriculture said separately Wednesday. “Without these key individuals the production year and local processing capacity could be lost.”

Source: https://www.foodincanada.com/food-in-canada/temporary-foreign-workers-exempt-from-canadas-travel-ban-144191/

#61 Ustabe on 03.21.20 at 2:47 pm

Saw a twitter feed on one of my news aggregators this AM.
Seems legit to me, linked to official business press releases and all.

Apparently in the last two months there has been just shy of 15 million cell phone deactivation’s in China.

Now maybe that is a normal figure given the population, I don’t know. But it is an interesting tid bit to remember as we watch the scenario unfold in the US…

#62 Grunt on 03.21.20 at 2:49 pm

Just my 2 cents since we’re allowed to comment here.

Mother Nature at work on too much industry and people. But who wants to die? Stay caring and safe. It will pass and it ain’t several years WW where you have to go off and fight and die.

Did the depression WWs or 1918 flu pandemic cause toilet paper shortages and panic buying?

#63 Grandv!ew on 03.21.20 at 2:57 pm

Somewhat off the current topic, but I feel it is very relevant since in my circles this is now biggest question.
So here it goes for anyone out there who would like to pipe in.
My understanding is that although open houses are cancelled (in BC not sure elsewhere) sales and deals can still proceed as usual observing minimized contact (using technology to handle paperwork and such).
With this said I have a question for anyone out there.
Would cancellation of open houses represent a circuit breaker to prevent panic selling (like a stock market panic selling).
And is it more importantly put in place allowing the few that are “in the know” to quietly offload the properties right before everybody starts panic selling and rushing out of the real estate market.
This is the case and point that “you can not eat the house” and importance of staying liquid and not in the debt up to the eyebrows. Sadly just a couple of months ago and during the election time all federal parties where competing on how to give more incentives for people to get into the debt. Well….they got their wish and right now with people saddled with $1.4 trillion dollars of mortgage debt they are(government) nowhere to be found to help people to get out of this mess.
If banks are not deferring mortgage payments or just delaying the decision on deferrals while people are losing jobs how are people supposed to maintain their lives. Government plan of deferring the mortgage payments is based on good will of the lender (banks) and it appears that they are overwhelmed with requests and that they are taking the time to process applications. I am also surprised that people are not gushing out of the market. It appears that they believe real estate is going to stay stable or even (delusional) go up while entire stock market, gold, oil etc. is taking 30-50 percent haircut. All of this is happening while smart cookies are preparing couple of bridges for sale to the real estate owners.

#64 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 2:57 pm

#58 Joseph R. on 03.21.20 at 2:44 pm
—-

There will be lots of Canadians available to pick produce after this blows over.

Here is an in-depth article explaining why the hysteria over this virus is entirely overblown.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

#65 Another Deckchair on 03.21.20 at 3:01 pm

@6 TurnerNation:

“Everything old is new again.
There will be many job for the masses.
Backbreaking labor in fields, factories etc as TFW are banned. ”

My brothers and I all worked when we were white, middle class Canadian kids on farms and so forth.

I actually enjoyed it. Was I good at it? Probably not, would rather have been lying pool-side sipping beer looking at the women. At least I was in really good shape, so when the sipping-beer-oogling weekend-time came…

The farms where we worked have all had their “local workers” outsourced to people from much further south, the Islands and Mexico.

These are great people and work really hard, no doubt about it, but what changed in 40 years where “Canadian born” kids can’t go out and do some labour for a summer?

Really?

M60ON

#66 Toronto_CA on 03.21.20 at 3:01 pm

Hey Doug –
With a strong USD, is this a time to use hedged-ETFs for investments rather than non-hedged? I have read that currency hedged funds are never a good idea, would be interested to hear your views or any of the blog dogs.

I could just see a lot of sp500 gains as this reverses course lowered by a weakening USD (at all time highs).

#67 Dazed and CONfused on 03.21.20 at 3:06 pm

Unlike the Stable Genius/Chosen One who stares into eclipses of the sun and declares COVID-19 a worldwide hoax, a real man owns up to his past mistakes.

Nicely done, Doug.

#68 DON on 03.21.20 at 3:15 pm

#68 DON on 03.21.20 at 3:10 pm

#52 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 2:09 pm

#41 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 1:34 pm
You are missing the trend right in front of your eyes and that’s a North American super state forming, Mexican (instead of Chinese) labour, Canadian resources and US entrepreneurship, security and finance gluing it together.

One of the most astute observations ever posted.
***********

It’s been happening for many years. And you are right it will may be intensified as a result of virus implications. But as you say this virus response is over blown and will end soon and everything will bounce back to normal.

Saying the obvious at the very least.

***************

Bad grammar in previous post have to fix it before Attrition points it out.

#68 DON on 03.21.20 at 3:10 pm

#52 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 2:09 pm

#41 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 1:34 pm
You are missing the trend right in front of your eyes and that’s a North American super state forming, Mexican (instead of Chinese) labour, Canadian resources and US entrepreneurship, security and finance gluing it together.

One of the most astute observations ever posted.
***********

It’s been happening for many years. And you are right it may be intensified as a result of virus implications. Saying the obvious at the very least.

But as you say this virus response is over blown and will end soon and everything will bounce back to normal.

I am still wondering why all the layoffs last week or the week before? Quicker than expected.

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.20 at 3:15 pm

Just arrived back in Vancouver from Hfx.
(Your safe again Garth)
Pulled into the Halifax airport car rental return line this am.
The rental car in front of me had Florida plates…WTH?
Go inside the virtually empty airport and grabbed a coffee
Some Newfies sitting next to me said they had been trying for 3 days to get a flight out of Florida and gave up and rented a car and drove to Halifax.
Dumped the car at the rental return. They may get hammered for a huge “return” fee.
They had no flight available to NFLD.
My first flight to Montreal had 5 crew and 9 passengers…..
My second flight from Mtl to Van was 1/3 empty.
The Montreal airport had more security staff standing around than passengers in the terminal. I walked from one end to the other ….empty.

I had the entire row on the plane to myself.
Recession?
Oh yeah…..

#70 Dazed and CONfused on 03.21.20 at 3:20 pm

“…..Does anyone believe that the US, with less than a third of China’s population and considerably more health care infrastructure, won’t be able to accomplish the same?……..”

All political ideology aside, apparently, ‘freedom-loving’ Americans are far less self-disciplined than their state-controlled Chinese counterparts.

One need look no further than the beaches of Clearwater Florida during the current Spring Break.

#71 Stone on 03.21.20 at 3:21 pm

Now, do I wish I could rev my DeLorean to 88 mph and revisit our emerging markets position of several years ago (and quietly delete my blog post from December 2018)? Of course.

———

That’s funny too.

#72 Eco Capitalist on 03.21.20 at 3:24 pm

Great scott!

#73 AGuyInVancouver on 03.21.20 at 3:25 pm

#46 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 1:51 pm
A buddy asked why Russia isn’t suffering paralyzing hysteria and seeing States in states of emergency imposing statewide lock-downs like we’re seeing in other States. They’re lying about the numbers, he said.

Maybe, I said, or they just don’t care. Russians shrug stuff like this off, accept the culling of their weakest, and pour another round of wodka…
– – –

The average life expectancy of a Russian man is 65.7 years, in Canada it is 81.1 years. Pretty clear who is doing a better job.

#74 Stone on 03.21.20 at 3:25 pm

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.20 at 3:15 pm

I had the entire row on the plane to myself.
Recession?
Oh yeah…..

———

Uhmmm…in your case, that’s not a certainty. Don’t forget, you do have a reputation, after all. A stale, smelly one. =)

#75 MicroGX on 03.21.20 at 3:29 pm

Thanks Doug, informative post.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.20 at 3:30 pm

Oh, almost forgot.
A week ago I went to my local Safeway in Van.
Nothing was missing except toilet paper.
Today.
No T/P
No Eggs.
No canned goods, (soup, meats,etc)
No salads.
Almost no meat.
No butter.

Glad I stocked up a week ago before I left….. :)

P.S.
I watch CBC because I cancelled my $100+ per month cable and now suffer through the CBC via an antennae.
I force myself to watch local news (what my tax dollars provided)….but if the Van news goes to Toronto….kiss CBC tv goodbye in less than 5 years.

#77 TurnerNation on 03.21.20 at 3:34 pm

I’d been posting omens for 2020-21 and here’s the tape.
– Pickering nuclear plant “false alert” caused iodine pill ordering panic.
– Feds allowed rail blockades which caused supply chain and rail layoff panic
– Stock market panic rout
– Flu virus panic and loss of liberties.
Did you know and I heard this, The definition of.Liberty is of a temporary leave granted.
Liberty is temporary. As we just learned.

What next will they drop on us? Food panic? Alien invasion? That did work out in the 1930s on radio. Orsen Wells.

#78 Realist on 03.21.20 at 3:37 pm

Given that India’s population will become 2 billion within the next 15 years, oil prices and gold prices will skyrocket. Expect to pay $500 a barrel for oil and $50,000 an ounce for gold. India, like China, has a growing urban population.

#79 CD on 03.21.20 at 3:42 pm

“Now, do I wish I could rev my DeLorean to 88 mph and revisit our emerging markets position of several years ago (and quietly delete my blog post from December 2018)”

“but if you’re managing assets prudently, these errors should never cripple overall performance”

“Knowing, of course, that we also lack the incredible inventions of Emmett Lathrop Brown”

“Lesson’s over. Now make like a tree and get outta here!”

“And it was all yellow”

“Go Go. Go Johnny go. Johnny B. Goode”

I think I may have to go watch BTTF now… Classic.

#80 IHCTD9 on 03.21.20 at 3:52 pm

#65 Another Deckchair on 03.21.20 at 3:01 pm
@6 TurnerNation:

“Everything old is new again.
There will be many job for the masses.
Backbreaking labor in fields, factories etc as TFW are banned. ”

My brothers and I all worked when we were white, middle class Canadian kids on farms and so forth.

I actually enjoyed it. Was I good at it? Probably not, would rather have been lying pool-side sipping beer looking at the women. At least I was in really good shape, so when the sipping-beer-oogling weekend-time came…

The farms where we worked have all had their “local workers” outsourced to people from much further south, the Islands and Mexico.

These are great people and work really hard, no doubt about it, but what changed in 40 years where “Canadian born” kids can’t go out and do some labour for a summer?

Really?

M60ON
—- –

Lots of much easier better paying work available today. My youth was spent on construction sites, farms, and chicken barns. Back then it paid a good 40-50% more to shovel chicken $hit out of a barn than flipping burgers, so that’s what I did. Haying, field labour, grunt construction work. Heavy labour in crap conditions paid the “big” bucks.

Back when I was a teen, gas was .50 and student wage was 3.25, now it’s a buck or so for gas (normally) and 13.00/hr student wage – and lots of cushy coffee pouring jobs to be had for that $.

I bet farm labour is no more than the minimum/student these days, so few would be sweating it out in a hay mound compared to mopping the floor in an air conditioned Timmies for the same $.

My 17 year old works for a caterer for 15.00/hr – then tips run that up to 18-22.00/hr every time, plus free lunch to boot. Lots of leftover bbq chicken and roasted potatoes come home with him too. I’d need 25.00+/hr to choose a 100 degree barn over that.

Things are just better these days on the bottom end.

#81 Stone on 03.21.20 at 3:57 pm

Unbelievable! The house beside me is for sale. Owners have already moved out a couple weeks back. Noticed an unfamiliar car in the driveway and another parked on the street in front of the house.

I said to myself “No way! It can’t be.”

I walked out of my front door just to see from my front yard and yes indeed, the lockbox on the neighbour’s door was open.

Went back in my house and waited for 5 minutes. Real estate agent with a wife and husband came out of the neighbour’s house.

What is wrong with people? Are they all more retarded than even I thought? Trust me, my expectations for them are extremely low already. They have no shame. No shame at all.

This problem with the virus is going to drag for a very, very long time.

#82 Tony on 03.21.20 at 4:01 pm

Everyone on this blog told me I was wrong when I shorted Teck Corporation. Unfortunately I bought back the shares too early.

#83 J KEYNES on 03.21.20 at 4:02 pm

IN THE LONG RUN, WERE ALL DEAD ANYWAYS…….

#84 Repurchase Disagreement on 03.21.20 at 4:11 pm

#41 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 1:34 pm
You are missing the trend right in front of your eyes and that’s a North American super state forming, Mexican (instead of Chinese) labour, Canadian resources and US entrepreneurship, security and finance gluing it together.

And maybe that could be one of the long term positives that come out if the Great Reset of 2020. Maybe also a return to long term corporate thinking and not focus so much on this quarter. A return to a value of a long term commitment to human capital and talant, which would bring back loyalty and work ethic. This is the sweet spot for free markets, which is the optimal economic system.

#85 Tony on 03.21.20 at 4:13 pm

Re: #57 technical analysis on 03.21.20 at 2:35 pm

It wasn’t that they underperformed because they didn’t it was because the U.S. markets are basically 100 percent rigged. If the U.S. markets weren’t 100 percent rigged the emerging markets wouldn’t have underperformed.

#86 Yukon Elvis on 03.21.20 at 4:29 pm

#37 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.21.20 at 1:19 pm
There will be no normal anytime soon because of this media induced outright hysteria. This will happen every flu season now.
Because sheep.
The good part about all of this is that it’s highly likely supply chains will be brought closer to home.
China is screwed for a long, long time.
……………………………..

Well said. China lost a lot of credibility on this one. Hard to get it back.

https://nationalpost.com/health/bio-warfare-experts-question-why-canada-was-sending-lethal-viruses-to-china

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

#87 Dolce Vita on 03.21.20 at 4:34 pm

#22 tommy barber

“a fortiori” – I have not heard or read that in such a long time. Thank you for that.

———————————

As for the Blog author’s China/US logic:

Non sequitur & quod superest probandum (or QED if you prefer)

And your argument, I agree:

Occam’s Razor.

(no pun intended “barber”, it just came out that way).

#88 BS on 03.21.20 at 4:41 pm

I think your bet on China will work out poorly. China will be decimated by this. Not only by the supply chains moving out because it makes good business sense, but there will be legislation world wide to move essential goods production out of China and back to home countries or at least within allies. Consumers will not want Chinese goods even at a lower cost.

I suspect China is going to get the bill for the trillions spent fighting this. Legislation will be changed so they can be sued. The US may decide to just default on the trillion in treasuries China holds as partial payment.

Travel to and from China will be restricted. How can they ever be trusted? China will be treated like Iran and North Korea. There is just too much at stake and with virtually every person being negatively affected worldwide do you think an open border or globalist leader will ever get elected again? Not a chance. Everyone’s life has changed for the worse economically and socially and many will lose loved ones. Globalism has failed. You can’t even make the economic argument for it anymore. The voters will decide.

The China economic story is over and it may be the best short of the century going forward. This will not be forgotten like some blip in the markets. This is a generational changing event.

#89 Dolce Vita on 03.21.20 at 4:44 pm

PS: #22 tommy barber

PS:

The Italian press grill our Civil Protection Agency last night at their daily briefing to the Nation, except it was about the Germans (21,828 case, 75 deaths):

“Why so few deaths in Germany as compared to Italia?”

Answer (editorialized):

If they tested positive for COVID 19 and later died, we called it a COVID-19 death.

Now, MOST of those deaths had other pre-existing conditions that made them vulnerable to the virus (e.g., hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, etc.).

Of course you can say the cause of death was one of those pre-existing conditions instead of COVID 19.

—————————–

Paying attention there Blog Author?

Non sequitur for good reason.

#90 Farmer Fred on 03.21.20 at 4:50 pm

” I’d need 25.00+/hr to choose a 100 degree barn over t hat.Things are just better these days on the bottom end.”

Ah the memories of the hay loft on a hot July day, scratched arms from handling 2000 bales in a day, the sweat, the heat. Cleaning out my neighbour’s century old barn that couldn’t be accessed by a tractor. 6 hours of moving tons of cow manure out to the barnyard with a wheelbrarrow every Saturday afternoon. Good hard labour. As the late great John Kenneth Galbraith said, “after growing up on a farm, nothing I ever did was considered work after that”. My sentiments exactly!

#91 IHCTD9 on 03.21.20 at 4:54 pm

#86 Yukon Elvis on 03.21.20 at 4:29 pm
#37 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.21.20 at 1:19 pm
There will be no normal anytime soon because of this media induced outright hysteria. This will happen every flu season now.
Because sheep.
The good part about all of this is that it’s highly likely supply chains will be brought closer to home.
China is screwed for a long, long time.
……………………………..

Well said. China lost a lot of credibility on this one. Hard to get it back.
—-

You really can’t believe a thing that comes out of China, not what you’d call an honest upstanding nation by any stretch.

#92 Figmund Sreud on 03.21.20 at 4:54 pm

Selfless behavior in a crisis! Timely essay:

We are all Stoics now
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/we-are-all-stoics-now/

“The Stoics were heavily influenced by Heraclitus. …

… What the post-modern world retains from the Stoics is the notion of resigned acceptance – which makes total sense if the world really works according to their insights. If fate rules the world, and practically everything that happens is out of our hands, then realpolitik means to accept “everything to happen as it actually does happen,” in the immortal words of Epictetus.”

Pandemic, … a force for us to accept the limits of existence.

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#93 Gandhi on 03.21.20 at 4:55 pm

#78 Realist on 03.21.20 at 3:37 pm

“Given that India’s population will become 2 billion within the next 15 years, oil prices and gold prices will skyrocket. Expect to pay $500 a barrel for oil and $50,000 an ounce for gold. India, like China, has a growing urban population.”

Been smoking up a ton of grass while in quarantine there cowboy? Give your head a shake and maybe try to dry out.

#94 Loonie Doctor on 03.21.20 at 4:55 pm

#42 GrumpyPanda on 03.21.20 at 1:35 pm
Remember about a week ago when I questioned the sanity of teachers organizing together in large groups to protest their concerns? Anyone willing to support that behavior now? Their bargaining position has just gotten a lot weaker.

—————————————————————
I believe most have suddenly reached tentative agreements.
-LD

#95 Joseph R. on 03.21.20 at 4:56 pm

#64 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 2:57 pm
#58 Joseph R. on 03.21.20 at 2:44 pm
—-

There will be lots of Canadians available to pick produce after this blows over.

Here is an in-depth article explaining why the hysteria over this virus is entirely overblown.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

———————————————————-

Thanks for the link.

Aaron Ginn

Growth is fun. I study people, habits, and beliefs. Co-founder of Lincoln Network. Former: Romney, StumbleUpon, & Everlane. Believe in One greater than myself.

its a viewpoint, but not endorsed by the medical professionals. Compare his article to this one:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-articles-endorsements-fdc68614f8e3

Read Hammer and the Dance. It’s his most current article.

Secondly, in small towns in Alberta, White, God-Fearing Christians don’t work in fields anymore, picking fruits, corn or remove rocks. That’s why the farmer needs to import so much labour from the outside. Many of whom don’t speak the language, have their passport and medical insurance at the hand of the farmer. They are, therefore, vulnerable.

Alberta recently extended employment standards and WCB to farmworkers, and it created an uproar. I live in a medium-sized town (15000 people).

Any Government intervention will be viewed as a Communist plot to create Stalinist labour death camps: I wish I were making it up.

#96 Nicky Kruschev on 03.21.20 at 4:58 pm

#73 AGuyInVancouver on 03.21.20 at 3:25 pm
#46 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 1:51

“The average life expectancy of a Russian man is 65.7 years, in Canada it is 81.1 years. Pretty clear who is doing a better job.”

Russian male life expectancy would be even shorter if they could get their hands on more vodka…

#97 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 5:03 pm

#57 technical analysis on 03.21.20 at 2:35 pm
“However, the underperformance of emerging markets serves to illustrate an important lesson for portfolio managers: learn to be comfortable holding positions that underperform.”

_____________________________

“that’s an absolutely insane comment. wow.”

The biggest reason amateurs go broke in the markets or in gambling is that they let their losses run and not their winnings. The rule is to cut your losses and let your profits run. It is the iron clad rule of investing. You are correct in your comment. Insane…

#98 Mao Zedong on 03.21.20 at 5:12 pm

#41 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 1:34 pm

“You are missing the trend right in front of your eyes and that’s a North American super state forming, Mexican (instead of Chinese) labour, Canadian resources and US entrepreneurship, security and finance gluing it together.”

Hear, hear! China just blew it with the Covid19 virus and they are going to emerge from this a much weaker country as a result. Expect them to not go down without a fight…

#99 BS on 03.21.20 at 5:13 pm

#63 Grandv!ew on 03.21.20 at 2:57 pm

My understanding is that although open houses are cancelled (in BC not sure elsewhere) sales and deals can still proceed as usual observing minimized contact (using technology to handle paperwork and such).

Open houses are irrelevant. They are more about realtors getting leads on new clients than they are about selling the house.

Real estate busts are about a lack of buyers. When people lose jobs and credit tightens buyers dry up. There will always be those that must sell. Death, divorce, foreclosure, job loss, job transfer, etc.

Buyers will dry up due to credit tightening, job losses, cuts in income for business owners, investment losses and the job insecurity. There is just no way it doesn’t eliminate most buyers. Plus you can assume there will be zero foreign buyers with no air travel and closed borders and all foreigners also being hit economically. Expect many foreign owned properties to be sold.

The bust is inevitable. Once we get though those who are already looking at certain properties, pre qualified and desperate to buy because their mortgage broker has told them they may not re qualify the RE market will tank. It will be worldwide but Canada will lead the way.

#100 Raging Ranter on 03.21.20 at 5:14 pm

#35 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 1:08 pm
Time to put ’em all on an island, so the rest of the world can carry on with business as usual?

Are you volunteering to start the process with your elderly or immuno-compromised family members?

#39 Sail Away on 03.21.20 at 1:25 pm
My goodness, people. If this country were ever invaded, we’d probably immediately melt into quivering, oozing capitulation based on this simple exercise.

If we were ever invaded you’d be posting here 30 times a day telling us it was just another fake crisis, and laughing at those with backbone enough to take action.

#101 Oracle of Ottawa on 03.21.20 at 5:15 pm

Great post Doug. Thanks. I remember starting to invest around 2000, the time of the teck bubble. Good timing I know. And I think Husky Energy was around $2. And a few years later it was $50. I kept thinking if only I had got in. All it takes is Saudi Arabia and Russia to call a truce in this price war and oil stock will look like the deal of the century.

#102 Timmy on 03.21.20 at 5:18 pm

“Does anyone believe that the US, with less than a third of China’s population and considerably more health care infrastructure, won’t be able to accomplish the same?”

Are you forgetting that the US is led by a narcissistic, sociopathic, simple-minded idiot who at first tried to deny the problem and then proceeded to lie about it?

#103 mark on 03.21.20 at 5:19 pm

Doug, so your saying my 17% allocation to EM(xec) is too much?
Has the long term EM market not surpassed the average return of SP/500 by over 3 percent historically? Around 13% average since inception?
Just another dog i guess.

#104 Curious George on 03.21.20 at 5:25 pm

#22 tommy barber on 03.21.20 at 12:37 pm

“Your a fortiori argument that if China can pull out of Covid -19 quickly the USA should do so even more is
flawed if the China data is bogus.”

You can bet your last Covid19 infested RMB on it being bogus. Think about it. Wuhan has 11 million citizens in a province Hubei of 60 million citizens. For 3 MONTHS the Chinese dictatorship claimed there was no problem. Millions of Chinese citizens were travelling through Hubei for Chinese New Year. Millions were traveling through China for months BEFORE it was made official. You think the rest of China escaped while countries like Italy have seen record deaths…..

#105 Stan Brooks on 03.21.20 at 5:26 pm

800 dead in a single day in Italy.

Not good. Still cocky? Wait 2-3 more weeks with loose isolation rules and see what happens. This thing seems a killer in urban areas and aging demographics.

It is funny how people think that other people’s misery is not of a concern… until it is and becomes suddenly not funny any more but rather tragic.

It is absolutely incomprehensible to me why there is not yet announced complete lock-down at this point, every day delay will probably cost additional hundreds if not thousands of lives. 1/3 of US is already in a complete lock down. What is the f…ng socks boy waiting for?

Preparing to spend a year in the bunker. Loaded on scotch and Irish stuff.

Scary stuff and definitely not times for jokes and ‘being cool’.

UK is paying 80 % of people’s salary not be laid off during the crisis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/coronavirus-uk-pm-announces-lockdown-measures-in-london.html

Socks boy pays generous 10 %. That is his solidarity folks. Social country, G7, I know. Bankers have to eat as well, you know.
What is left is to pray hard.

Cheers,

#106 General MacArthur on 03.21.20 at 5:30 pm

#19 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.21.20 at 12:29 pm

“I have changed my view of the virus. I can admit it, I was wrong. I knew China was lying. We all knew it. We wanted the 1% death rate so badly. They told us what we were lusting to hear and we bought it. Now we are behind…”

You make the excellent point that if China had been upfront about it from the beginning, the world would have prepared immediately. By denying it for 3 months they set the stage for a pandemic. The leadership of China should be tried for crimes against humanity….

#107 conan on 03.21.20 at 5:36 pm

“Does anyone believe that the US, with less than a third of China’s population and considerably more health care infrastructure, won’t be able to accomplish the same?”

From what I hear there are going to be Italy 2.0. I have talked to Canadians who just got out the USA and they said all of the Trump States thought it was a hoax and they are weeks behind getting their chit together.

Days count when it comes to flattening the curve and the Trump States are going to get Italy type carnage.

#108 Billy the Bus Driver on 03.21.20 at 5:37 pm

#13 Lee on 03.21.20 at 12:10 pm

“Forget investing. Story out of Ottawa today says over 400 Ottawa bus drivers on sunshine list making 100K or more plus 30% for benefits. Top driver made$179,000. On other hand, City of Burlington looking to hire a lawyer for 100K. Just sayin.”

Do you really think lawyers should be paid the same as bus drivers? Puhleeze….you think it is easy to become a bus driver?

#109 Dogman01 on 03.21.20 at 5:39 pm

#41 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 1:34 pm

You are missing the trend right in front of your eyes and that’s a North American super state forming, Mexican (instead of Chinese) labour, Canadian resources and US entrepreneurship, security and finance gluing it together.

#37 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.21.20 at 1:19 pm

The good part about all of this is that it’s highly likely supply chains will be brought closer to home.

————————————————-

We should make a few changes:
1. 50% of any necessity must be “made in Canada” this way we retain knowledge and some capacity to be self-sustaining.
2. Trade = Trade, If we buy $1 Billion from the PRC then the PRC must buy 1$ Billion of something from us. Some flexibility over a five year period, like a Trade not this sucking sound of all our jobs and money thus far that serves only to destroy the local economy.

#110 Curious George on 03.21.20 at 5:43 pm

#10 MF on 03.21.20 at 12:03 pm
Although i hope it’s true, i think we should view and interpret all statistics from China cautiously.

“Ask yourself the question: do you think the totalitarian leadership there has anything to gain from telling the world they were efficient and effective at getting a difficult situation under control?”

Duh…. The Communist dictatorship first denied the problem for 3 months allowing a global pandemic to unfold and then went into full scale propaganda mode by telling the world that it has it all under control and you guys (the rest of the world) now have a problem.

#111 Dogman01 on 03.21.20 at 5:43 pm

#66 Toronto_CA on 03.21.20 at 3:01 pm

hedged-ETFs for investments rather than non-hedged?
———————————————————-
Same question, VGG has worked but is it now time for VGH.

#112 oh bouy on 03.21.20 at 5:48 pm

@#105 General MacArthur on 03.21.20 at 5:30 pm
#19 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.21.20 at 12:29 pm

“I have changed my view of the virus. I can admit it, I was wrong. I knew China was lying. We all knew it. We wanted the 1% death rate so badly. They told us what we were lusting to hear and we bought it. Now we are behind…”

You make the excellent point that if China had been upfront about it from the beginning, the world would have prepared immediately. By denying it for 3 months they set the stage for a pandemic. The leadership of China should be tried for crimes against humanity….
___________________________________

china went into lockdown jan 14.
we don’t have an accurate mortality rate yet because we don’t know how many people have or had it.
I would guess once we know the mortality rate will be knowhere near what the fear mongers are bleating about

#113 CC on 03.21.20 at 5:50 pm

#224 Lambchop on 03.21.20 at 2:01 OK, so we can probably all agree that the medical community should not be permitted to run our country’s finances, same as an accountant should never be allowed to run a restaurant based on food cost alone.

So why are we allowing this to happen? We are being forced onto EI and whatever social programs are available to us because “flatten the curve”.

There simply has to be another way. I am luckily still working but we are all waiting for the hammer to drop.

Everyone I know (except the CBC fanatics) is extremely unhappy and stressed about not being able to work. I don’t know what we can do about it, there’s nothing I can think of, but lots of you on here have good ideas.
Nobody is interested in a deep and prolonged recession, or worse.
I know this will garner some social shaming about how I don’t care about the afflicted, but why should the country, the world, be dragged down economically by this? I thought we were going to follow South Korea’s successful example? They didn’t have a nationwide lockdown of everything, and they survived!

What can we do to turn this crazy government around?
———————————————

This has got to be one of the saddest, dumbest comments I’ve read here to date.

But undoubtedly there are plenty of deplorables who frequent this pathetic blog’s comment section who agree with your sentiments.

Perhaps you can arrange for a largish group — ideally over 50 people to make it clear you don’t agree with the medical community running our government — to voice your concerns via a protest on Parliament Hill.

I am sure, BytorTheSnowdog, SailAway and CrowdedElevatorFartz amongst others, will be happy to make signs and bring coffee. Who else is in!?

#114 crazyfox on 03.21.20 at 5:51 pm

“Does anyone believe that the US, with less than a third of China’s population and considerably more health care infrastructure, won’t be able to accomplish the same?” – Doug

It depends, of course, on federal, state and municipal government response. The answer to your question, is no. The U.S. won’t be able to accomplish what China has for several reasons:

– WH administration weeks and months behind of an adequate response.

– World wide shortage of masks. Oh, Asia is looking after their own but as for PPE exports, its up to the rest of the world to provide for themselves. Fed’s should have anticipated this early on and failed miserably in its response to a crisis that was widely reported in media since January 23rd (Wuhan lock down).

– It’s not just masks, its temp scanners, drugs, health care supplies of any kind that Asia is keeping to itself and no longer exporting as a consequence. Europe as well. North America, relying on imports, is simply not well prepared for this.

– The U.S. (and Canada) is not well positioned to use government apps for GPS tracking of the infected due to a lower saturation of cel phone ownership than the Asian population. The U.S. in particular, may not be well enough educated (think discrimination and “freedom at all costs”) to use government cel phone GPS tracking apps:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6c9gbttVew

I can’t stress this enough. The success China, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have had in containing the virus comes down to this government app illustrated in the link above, used in conjunction with temp scanners at every retailer, mass transit etc.. To contain the virus, we have no choice but to trace the chains of infection as well as monitor the potential movement of infected or suspected or high risk chances of cases being infected just as China did. It simply cannot be done without the use of a government app that makes everyone publicly aware of where infected cases are, as well as monitors the movement of people who have ran high temperatures. Lets face it, this government app is the only way a federal government can truly make the public adhere to quarantines. We think its an invasion of privacy but does anyone think infected people wish to pass it on? Do we think nutter vigilantes will be chomping at the bit to make the world a safer place risking their own lives for some nutter fantasy? Canadians aren’t children. But Americans…

Is the general public ready for this kind of privacy invasion? If it comes down to being able to go back to work or not, the quick answer should be yes but in the states with their “freedom at all costs” culture, who really knows. Certainly the U.S. federal government isn’t ready for a government cel app with GPS tracking infected and won’t be until Trump is gone but Canadians need to think long and hard about doing it here. Lets remind, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are not in a full lock down here, their economies have been disrupted but are returning back to normal and its been because of this government app cel GPS tracking the movement of infected cases used in conjunction with temp scanners everywhere. This isn’t just about $$, think about it, it takes out the paranoia by giving people a defense against this virus just as masks do.

Finally, it really is about Trump. We were saying early on, Trump would be a disaster in a disaster like a pandemic. Sure enough, he is. Just last week, he was still dismissing the federal government’s role in the procurement and manufacturing of supplies to fight this virus (PPE, masks, temp scanners, ventilators etc.). His trade war with China has frozen diplomacy between the U.S. and China. Same goes for diplomacy between the U.S. and the U.N. (WHO). At a time when the world needs full communication with itself and open channels of critical trade, Trump took the U.S. into isolation. We couldn’t have had a worse president with worse policies and leadership than Trump and he’s still there! The world is stuck with this old fat blowhard loser for another 10 months!!

So, in answer to your question Doug, No. The U.S. is still innovative:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/fda-coronavirus-test/index.html

… but there is such a present leadership vacuum that the delays in fighting this virus will prove too costly to mirror what China has done.

Looking ahead, I believe Canada is doing everything it can at the federal level. Actually, I’m impressed with the political response at all levels of government. Partisan rhetoric has been replaced with politicians doing their jobs but we are short on supplies. Canada needs to look at manufacturing what we need for ourselves and we are doing that. We are looking at the use of tech here, addressing cel phone issues, temp scanners, access to cash, all of it as we speak.

I’m hoping like most of us are, that this pandemic is seasonal buying us time to get ready for this winter’s virus season fully prepared. Whether or not COVID-19 is seasonal however, remains to be seen though, so we need to catch up as fast as we can right now and lets keep in mind the numbers especially out of the tropics (Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Equador, Chile, Thailand, Philippines, Panama, Mexico, Columbia, Costa Rica) as they will give some indication of the seasonality of this virus:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

#115 oh bouy on 03.21.20 at 5:52 pm

@#100 Raging Ranter on 03.21.20 at 5:14 pm
#35 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 1:08 pm

If we were ever invaded you’d be posting here 30 times a day telling us it was just another fake crisis,

and laughing at those with backbone enough to take action.
–________________________________

you the guy who bought all the TP?

#116 MF on 03.21.20 at 5:54 pm

8 Mao Zedong on 03.21.20 at 5

Gonna agree with this statement.

I watched an interview on Valuetainment about covid yesterday. Two US experts were being interviewed.

Basically the cat is out if the bag with community spread. The goal is just to “self-isolate” and flatten the curve so hospitals are not overrun. Nothing new there.

But,

Since a vaccine is like 18 months away (that’s ambitious btw), they are looking at anti viral drugs. What the US government has realized is that a ton of the materials needed to manufacture these drugs are imported from China. This is a matter of national security so you can bet that will change, among a lot of ther things.

Geopolitics are about to shift. Not 1st mentioned a north american super state. Interesting observation.

One thing is for sure, a lot of people are angry with the regime in China, and as this gets worse and worse, expect it to grow.

MF

#117 insanity on 03.21.20 at 5:56 pm

@#97 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 5:03 pm
#57 technical analysis on 03.21.20 at 2:35 pm
“However, the underperformance of emerging markets serves to illustrate an important lesson for portfolio managers: learn to be comfortable holding positions that underperform.”

_____________________________

“that’s an absolutely insane comment. wow.”

The biggest reason amateurs go broke in the markets or in gambling is that they let their losses run and not their winnings. The rule is to cut your losses and let your profits run. It is the iron clad rule of investing. You are correct in your comment. Insane…
_______________________________________

equating investing with gambling eh.
slippery slope I guess.

#118 Nonplused on 03.21.20 at 5:56 pm

#62 Grunt

Toilet paper didn’t really become a household necessity until people had indoor plumbing.

#119 General MacArthur on 03.21.20 at 5:57 pm

#88 BS on 03.21.20 at 4:41 pm

“The China economic story is over and it may be the best short of the century going forward. This will not be forgotten like some blip in the markets. This is a generational changing event.”

You are spot on. China just blew itself up and the rest of the world is not going to forget or trust them going forward. The only concern is that they, like all good dictatorships will not go down without a fight….

#120 R on 03.21.20 at 6:09 pm

I don’t think America is great anymore. tRump has totally ruined it’s reputation as a country to be admired. Perhaps one small silver lining of this virus tragedy is tRump will be exposed for the lying con man he is and booted out of office. I dream of tRump doing the orange jumpsuit perp walk after he has been convicted of mass corruption while in office. Imagine a President saying in front of cameras “I take no responsibility “

#121 Reality is stark on 03.21.20 at 6:09 pm

You know there is a lot of misplaced fear rummaging about. This virus is especially vicious to those with underlying medical conditions. Those folks should be fearful.
What we don’t want to admit is that the typical divorced man in North America with a couple kids loses 65% of his assets in a heartbeat. The usual nonchalant response is to tough it up “Ace” and get back in the race again.
All those guys that have been put through the “ringer” rarely complain and dust themselves off.
The crying that goes on in this weblog sometimes needs reflection.
A 65% hit hurts. Now you know what it feels like.
The judge expects you to take it like a man when he reads his verdict and the other party doesn’t give a rat’s ass when they move on.
Now you have a little bit of context.
The sun will rise tomorrow.

#122 Phylis on 03.21.20 at 6:16 pm

#61 Ustabe on 03.21.20 at 2:47 pm The transfer to 5G?

#123 crazyfox on 03.21.20 at 6:25 pm

#89 Dolce Vita on 03.21.20 at 4:44 pm

Italy has a much larger number of cases within a smaller pop.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Italy’s hospitals have been overrun for a week now. The cases coming into hospitals are already quite sick coming into overwhelmed hospitals. These factors all contribute to a much higher CFR.

Germany’s cases are newer, fewer and coming into a health care system that isn’t overwhelmed. There are other factors such as demographics. Italy has a higher population of high age groups compared to Germany:

https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/

There are other unknowns such as the levels of PPE used in both nations, there are 2 strains with one being more benign than the other, is it a factor? Of course, Germany is at an advantage being a 7 to 10 days behind in epidemic comparisons. There is more reactionary time to respond to the seriousness of this crisis and time is golden.

I can’t help but think though, that such comparisons right now from media take out oxygen in the room that could be much better spent, such as what further actions need to be taken to contain the virus throughout the world. If Asian nations have an excellent measured success in containing the virus, we need to understand how, why and duplicate what works everywhere else. If such actions lead to all adults owning a cel phone world wide for example and temp scanners widely used so that economies can normalize, I’m good with it.

#124 Sail Away on 03.21.20 at 6:26 pm

#100 Raging Ranter on 03.21.20 at 5:14 pm
#39 Sail Away on 03.21.20 at 1:25 pm

My goodness, people. If this country were ever invaded, we’d probably immediately melt into quivering, oozing capitulation based on this simple exercise.

————————

If we were ever invaded you’d be posting here 30 times a day telling us it was just another fake crisis, and laughing at those with backbone enough to take action.

————————

Negative. I would fully support those 12 people.

#125 Doug Rowat on 03.21.20 at 6:27 pm

#97 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 5:03 pm

The biggest reason amateurs go broke in the markets or in gambling is that they let their losses run and not their winnings. The rule is to cut your losses and let your profits run. It is the iron clad rule of investing. You are correct in your comment. Insane…

We run a globally balanced and diversified portfolio comprised of ETFs. We can’t just strip out Bank of America because it ain’t “running”.

With a balanced portfolio you underweight, never zero weight.

And I haven’t gone broke yet.

–Doug

#126 Marco on 03.21.20 at 6:27 pm

On the end of the day, Canadian statistics will fix this virus….

#127 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 6:30 pm

#73 AGuyInVancouver on 03.21.20 at 3:25 pm

Russians also shrug off life expectancy expectations.

“In Soviet Russia, corona-wirus get sick of you…”

#128 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 6:34 pm

I will make a simpler bet and calculation.

US economy is $20T, Chinas is $12. 18% of Chinas GDP is dependent on the US. You can basically take that number and add it to the US GDP after this is all over.

EU has a similar number.

#129 Lee on 03.21.20 at 6:34 pm

You people are hyping the virus way too much. There are unique reasons why some closely clustered older European communities are seeing a lot of deaths. As viruses go, they usually weaken in potentsy as time passes, and the targets get harder to penetrate because it usually has the greatest success infecting the weaker early on, left then with only stronger immune systems to attack. As time passes, we all also start to wash our hands more, clean our refrigerator door handles (as if we ever did that before), and of course, notice how much we touch our faces and stop doing it. We probably also do the wash more. There really has not been an explosion of death on Ontario. All the effort going into responding to COVID-19 has also meant less transmission of the other flus that typically go around. I say in two weeks we will see massive progress. However, for now, until told otherwise, keep social distancing, washing hands, staying away from big crowds, and don’t go to the Hospital unless absolutely necessary.

#130 Penny Henny on 03.21.20 at 6:35 pm

#81 Stone on 03.21.20 at 3:57 pm
Unbelievable! The house beside me is for sale. Owners have already moved out a couple weeks back. Noticed an unfamiliar car in the driveway and another parked on the street in front of the house.

I said to myself “No way! It can’t be.”

I walked out of my front door just to see from my front yard and yes indeed, the lockbox on the neighbour’s door was open.

Went back in my house and waited for 5 minutes. Real estate agent with a wife and husband came out of the neighbour’s house.

What is wrong with people? Are they all more retarded than even I thought? Trust me, my expectations for them are extremely low already. They have no shame. No shame at all.
/////////////////

Stone am I missing something?
Is the world supposed to stop?
I am being sincere, what is the issue?

#131 Phylis on 03.21.20 at 6:41 pm

#94 Loonie Doctor on 03.21.20 at 4:55 pm And caved on e-learning.

#132 Slim on 03.21.20 at 6:50 pm

I think any comparison to the 2008/9 financial crises and the Great Depression is a little misleading. This time we’re dealing with a living organism that has a “mind of its own.” This thing could last months or years. Throwing money at it is only a short term solution, or no solution at all. I guess we’ll find out.

#133 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 6:53 pm

#115 insanity on 03.21.20 at 5:56 pm
@#97 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 5:03 pm
#57 technical analysis on 03.21.20 at 2:35 pm

“equating investing with gambling eh.
slippery slope I guess.”

I am an investor and a gambler and I can tell you that the iron clad rule of investing/gambling are one and the same. I speak from 40 years of success in both fields…

#134 Joseph R. on 03.21.20 at 6:58 pm

#105 General MacArthur on 03.21.20 at 5:30 pm
#19 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.21.20 at 12:29 pm

“I have changed my view of the virus. I can admit it, I was wrong. I knew China was lying. We all knew it. We wanted the 1% death rate so badly. They told us what we were lusting to hear and we bought it. Now we are behind…”

You make the excellent point that if China had been upfront about it from the beginning, the world would have prepared immediately. By denying it for 3 months they set the stage for a pandemic.

————————————————————–
Fox Business Trish Regan Ranted about it earlier this month:

https://twitter.com/trish_regan/status/1237170781509033984?lang=en

#135 yvr_lurker on 03.21.20 at 7:03 pm

#88 The China economic story is over and it may be the best short of the century going forward. This will not be forgotten like some blip in the markets. This is a generational changing event.

————————-
I truly hope so. I hope that the west no longer sees China as the factory of the world. There needs to be some controls on globalization; setting up factories in countries that can be relied upon and trusted (I see mexico as a beneficiary of all of this in the end and perhaps some countries in South America). Making more things at home, creating more local jobs even if it costs us a little more to purchase stuff. I have a very hard to time to believe that a “globalist” leader will have an easy time to get elected going forward. There will be much discussion about the perils of globalization, and especially with countries that show no willingness to curb dangerous cultural practices (live animal markets).

#136 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.21.20 at 7:07 pm

@ #111 CC on 03.21.20 at 5:50 pm
———————————————-
Ahhh, how sweet! Black Dog changed her username. What does CC stand for dear? Crazy Catlady?

Anyway, your reply to th orginal poster proven his point. Shaming doesn’t work, honey.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.20 at 7:10 pm

Totally out of left field.
My losses are significant but I’m curious.
How much have the richest plutocrats lost in the past month?
The worlds richest billionaires?
Elon Musk?
Bill Gates?
Even billionaires must gulp a few times when their personal wealth drops by 25-40% in a month.

Who will vie for the Guiness Book of Records for personally losing the most money after all this is over?

#138 CJohnC on 03.21.20 at 7:18 pm

Costco Today.
No T/P
No Eggs.
No canned goods, (soup, meats,etc)
No salads.
Almost no meat.
No butter.

At least in Canada there isn’t also a run on guns and ammo. Apparently in the US the gun business is up 10%, many of them first time buyers. That should end well.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-us-panic-buying-guns-ammo-nra-a9403886.html

#139 insanity on 03.21.20 at 7:22 pm

@#131 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 6:53 pm
#115 insanity on 03.21.20 at 5:56 pm
@#97 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 5:03 pm
#57 technical analysis on 03.21.20 at 2:35 pm

“equating investing with gambling eh.
slippery slope I guess.”

I am an investor and a gambler and I can tell you that the iron clad rule of investing/gambling are one and the same. I speak from 40 years of success in both fields…
_____________________________________

Ya I know, just never thought i’d hear it from the horses mouth.

#140 oh bouy on 03.21.20 at 7:25 pm

@#127 Lee on 03.21.20 at 6:34 pm
You people are hyping the virus way too much. There are unique reasons why some closely clustered older European communities are seeing a lot of deaths. As viruses go, they usually weaken in potentsy as time passes, and the targets get harder to penetrate because it usually has the greatest success infecting the weaker early on, left then with only stronger immune systems to attack. As time passes, we all also start to wash our hands more, clean our refrigerator door handles (as if we ever did that before), and of course, notice how much we touch our faces and stop doing it. We probably also do the wash more. There really has not been an explosion of death on Ontario. All the effort going into responding to COVID-19 has also meant less transmission of the other flus that typically go around. I say in two weeks we will see massive progress. However, for now, until told otherwise, keep social distancing, washing hands, staying away from big crowds, and don’t go to the Hospital unless absolutely necessary.
_____________________________________

finally, a logical voice of reason.
where have you been all this time?
Critical thinking is making a come back. yeah.

#141 stage1dave on 03.21.20 at 7:29 pm

Weird times indeed…

Late Thursday afternoon @ 5:39 PM in Edmonton, I turned southbound onto 170th st off 109th Avenue…heading west. I had to wait for ONE car to clear the intersection! At “rush hour”…I couldn’t have performed that maneuver at midnite 30 years ago in the same time frame. Compared to normal, the streets are practically deserted up here…

Bonus, I can get pretty much anywhere I need to be in under 15 min…unbelievable.

On a more negative note, can’t get to half my work because of “self isolating” customers or pay bills with cash…but at least the banks are still accepting it! Also, the thrift shops are shuttering, so there goes half the wife’s & I’s social life…if Netflix craters, that’ll be the other half…

Things have settled down at SuperStore in the hometown TG; last weekend was apocalyptic. Asst mgr at service desk told us gross sales for fri/sat exceeded the receipts for ENTIRE MONTH of December.

Kind of glad the MIL wasn’t around to see this insanity, we buried her today. (Scaled down service as per “guidelines”; no children under 12, and no one over 70, which totally sucked) Had a nice wake at home too with most family present. The two of us didn’t agree on a whole bunch but would’ve seen eye to eye on this idiocy. And now I got nobody to argue politics with, or debate the relative legacies of Lougheed vs Klein…and that sucks too.

Funny how quickly things can change, we all know it but need to be continually reminded. At Christmas she was her usual stoic/crusty self…went into the hospital and of January and never left…cancer are her to the bone in 6 weeks ffs…that sucks too.

On a brighter note, I notice that someone in the UCP public relations dept had a word with the leadership, because they are now practicing “social distancing” themselves! I couldn’t help but see the reporters all several feet from one another while all the talking heads on stage were packed in together like sardines, cheek to cheek and bum to bum while they lectured us on appropriate space relations and the new rules of societal norms…

Damn…I was beginning to wonder what they knew that we didn’t, y’know?
Plus, I hadn’t sworn at a television that much since I was a Leafs fan!

(Apparently, nobody in the White House PR dept has figured out this dichotomy yet btw, or maybe they’re just tired of trying to explain it to Mr. Trump)

House-wise, I’m thinking the spring market is gonna be nonexistent, which means the MILs acreage will probably stay estate-bound for a while, or at least until some signs of life emerge from potential buyers. (there, back on topic)

That being said, my conspirational frame of mind can’t help but wonder what lies ahead for us self-employed folks…been a sole prop for 35 years and am used to flying full IFR now n then, but people not accepting cash is a new one. Don’t need any help from the govt either, tho our landlord might need some…7 properties and a couple delinquent tenants.

Dont have to leave for BC till Wednesday, so guess I’ll amuse myself over next few days by seeing just how much cash our respective governments plow into the markets to shore up investor confidence and keep the dream alive for as many corporations as possible!

Ain’t Free Enterprise great?

#142 oh bouy on 03.21.20 at 7:35 pm

@#136 CJohnC on 03.21.20 at 7:18 pm
Costco Today.
No T/P
No Eggs.
No canned goods, (soup, meats,etc)
No salads.
Almost no meat.
No butter.

At least in Canada there isn’t also a run on guns and ammo. Apparently in the US the gun business is up 10%, many of them first time buyers. That should end well.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-us-panic-buying-guns-ammo-nra-a9403886.html
_______________________________

Not surprised. the yanks think they can shoot their way out of anything.

#143 Stone on 03.21.20 at 7:36 pm

#128 Penny Henny on 03.21.20 at 6:35 pm
#81 Stone on 03.21.20 at 3:57 pm
Unbelievable! The house beside me is for sale. Owners have already moved out a couple weeks back. Noticed an unfamiliar car in the driveway and another parked on the street in front of the house.

I said to myself “No way! It can’t be.”

I walked out of my front door just to see from my front yard and yes indeed, the lockbox on the neighbour’s door was open.

Went back in my house and waited for 5 minutes. Real estate agent with a wife and husband came out of the neighbour’s house.

What is wrong with people? Are they all more retarded than even I thought? Trust me, my expectations for them are extremely low already. They have no shame. No shame at all.
/////////////////

Stone am I missing something?
Is the world supposed to stop?
I am being sincere, what is the issue?

———

Actually yes. It should stop for a while. I’d rather have a few weeks of inconvenience versus many months of the same. The damage of a selfish few will do severe harm to the majority.

Unfortunately, the selfish few will win out. I am realistic after all. I just would rather resolve this quickly. People unemployed for 4 weeks is much better than 4-6 months. No?

#144 Raging Ranter on 03.21.20 at 7:37 pm

#113 oh bouy

you the guy who bought all the TP?

You the guy who ran out?

#145 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.21.20 at 7:43 pm

#136 CjohnC

Costco Today.
No T/P
No Eggs.
No canned goods, (soup, meats,etc)
No salads.
Almost no meat.
No butter.

At least in Canada there isn’t also a run on guns and ammo. Apparently in the US the gun business is up 10%, many of them first time buyers. That should end well.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-us-panic-buying-guns-ammo-nra-a9403886.html

***************

Busiest aisle at my local Canadian Tire is the firearms aisle.
Not everyone is relaxing in the sun waiting for their boss to call them back to work.

#146 MF on 03.21.20 at 7:49 pm

#138 oh bouy on 03.21.20 at 7:25 pm

Where is the lack of reason?

Mostly everyone here is aware the virus is one thing, and the fear/economic impact is another, bigger thing.

Society is making a choice. Money or people? So far, we’ve chosen people. That’s what @#127 Lee, and almost everyone here has been discussing all along.

MF

#147 Stone on 03.21.20 at 7:56 pm

#114 MF on 03.21.20 at 5:54 pm
8 Mao Zedong on 03.21.20 at 5

Gonna agree with this statement.

I watched an interview on Valuetainment about covid yesterday. Two US experts were being interviewed.

Basically the cat is out if the bag with community spread. The goal is just to “self-isolate” and flatten the curve so hospitals are not overrun. Nothing new there.

But,

Since a vaccine is like 18 months away (that’s ambitious btw), they are looking at anti viral drugs. What the US government has realized is that a ton of the materials needed to manufacture these drugs are imported from China. This is a matter of national security so you can bet that will change, among a lot of ther things.

Geopolitics are about to shift. Not 1st mentioned a north american super state. Interesting observation.

One thing is for sure, a lot of people are angry with the regime in China, and as this gets worse and worse, expect it to grow.

MF

———

Normally, I would say a North American super state would be ridiculous. Now though, I’m not so sure.

That, or China will get blockaded from the rest of the world. Again, a ridiculous statement previously yet doesn’t seem so much so now. You sometimes have to wonder. Was the great wall of China meant to keep something out or was it meant to keep something in?

#148 Sail Away on 03.21.20 at 8:00 pm

#134 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.21.20 at 7:07 pm
@ #111 CC on 03.21.20 at 5:50 pm

———————–

Ahhh, how sweet! Black Dog changed her username. What does CC stand for dear? Crazy Catlady?

———————–

Cool, a blog version of ‘Where’s Waldo’!

Ignore the name and search for inane, emotion-driven, usually misandristic attacks on others.

#149 Spectacle on 03.21.20 at 8:00 pm

Soo more positive business in a tough time ::

Elon Musk has just announced that , “We have 250k N95 masks. Aiming to start distributing those to hospitals tomorrow night. Should have over 1000 ventilators by next week.”

Its not rocket science …..alone, its Elon being Elon. And everyone in that ondistry jumped down his throat. Losers?

Thanks Garth, thanks Doug, and thanks Elon.

#150 MF on 03.21.20 at 8:08 pm

#143 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.21.20 at 7:43 pm

“Busiest aisle at my local Canadian Tire is the firearms aisle.
Not everyone is relaxing in the sun waiting for their boss to call them back to work.”

-I guess that is what happens when you watch too many movies and TV shows.

Interesting interview on Joe Rogan’s youtube channel today where they talking about the unprecedented lockdown of California. He’s got a former soldier on there (can’t recall his name). The soldier was saying the lockdown is the first taste Americans are getting of what it is like to live in a third world dictatorship, where going out is restricted and possibly dangerous.

He said in situations like this, where there is a little fear and uncertainty, are where the veneer people try to portray to the world starts to get peeled away…in some people.

I guess the point was if some people are prepping for a pandemic like it is ww3, they are clearly a little unhinged and probably should be avoided even in the best of times.

MF

#151 oh bouy on 03.21.20 at 8:09 pm

@#144 Raging Ranter on 03.21.20 at 7:37 pm
#113 oh bouy

you the guy who bought all the TP?

You the guy who ran out?
__________________________________

nope. thank dog.
Definitely rationing the 20 or so I do have.
I’m sure if the hoarders have it their way i’ll buying of kijiji. karma’s a b!tch though.

#152 NewWest on 03.21.20 at 8:12 pm

I got back from Iceland last night. There was one flight to Canada yesterday from Reykjavik. It was eerie travelling through deserted airports, and I am very grateful to be home.

Came across this article in the NYTimes today. I wish it was people like this, actual experts, who were determining the course of action around this situation, not politicians, not the untrained and uneducated, the loudest voices, driven by the internet where Everyone Can Be An Expert As All Voices Are Equivalent. No, sometimes they are not.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Dr. Katz, the author, is an actual doctor, an expert in public health and preventative medicine. Please read the article. I can only hope that some sanity returns to the world quickly before too much economic damage has been done.

#153 CC on 03.21.20 at 8:18 pm

#226 HH on 03.21.20 at 7:33 pm
Wanted to say a few words to all the lovely human beings on this blog who think this is all an overreaction and saving the economy should take precedence over saving lives.

You know, those folks who think the proper policy response to a disease that doesn’t touch 80-90% of population and mops the floor with 10-20%, is to continue business as usual and throw the 10-20% under the bus.

Or better yet, pack those pesky 10-20% off to quarantine concentration camps, so the rest of us can continue going to work and never lose a single day of work or a single dollar of profit.

Dog forbid we let anything interfere with the making of a buck for even a few weeks or months…

Bye-bye grandma and grandpa. Off to camp you go… Nothing personal – just business. You are starting to get in the way of my making money…

How old are you people? If you are anything over 60 and you hold that opinion, you are too dumb for words. You are the at-risk group. You are basically volunteering yourself to be thrown under the bus or into quarantine concentration camp.

If you are younger, don’t you have parents, grandparents or other elders in your family? Are you willing to sacrifice them so easily?

I know, I know. Economy matters too. They are drastic measures. The shutdowns cannot last forever. Eventually tough choices and trade-offs will have to be made.

But what does it say about the moral fibre of our society that just a mere lousy, stinking, miserable 1-2 weeks into this thing, so many are already willing to throw every hypertensive, immuno-compromised, old grandma to the wolves?

Are we really that perfectly willing to let that slim minority of 10% or 5% or 2% or whatever take it on the chin, while we all just stand back and watch?

If so, what does that say about us?
————————————-

Fortunately, what the deplorables would like to see happen, isn’t what is happening in Canada, but for those who are cool with throwing grandma under the bus, be careful what you wish for.

#154 Felon Musk on 03.21.20 at 8:18 pm

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.20 at 7:10 pm

“Totally out of left field. My losses are significant but I’m curious. How much have the richest plutocrats lost in the past month?The worlds richest billionaires?Elon Musk?”

You do realize that Mr.Musk has been runninga zombie company in Tesla from the get go. He has been fed billions from the market for a company that is probably the leading zombie company out there. For the uninformed, a zombie company is one which is not making profits but stays alive on constant cash infusions from the capital markets.

https://mises.org/wire/zombie-company-apocalypse-here

#155 Ustabe on 03.21.20 at 8:21 pm

Moments ago I read a report out of the US. Apparently young people in the US are getting Covid to the point of hospitalization far in advance of the numbers reported in Europe.

Author surmised it was due to so many US younger folks with both obesity and diabetes.

You know if enough younger folks do die, US or Canada, that puts pressure on labour. As the number of labour participants declines, those willing are able to demand more money for the labour.

And we are truly seeing who exactly is the glue holding things together…not Wall Street, rather the janitors, food store workers, the nurses, those who open our drug stores everyday.

When I had my restaurants we could handle a cook or chef not showing up or a server not appearing for a shift but lord almighty did this get serious if the dishwasher took an unannounced shift off. Imagine no garbage pick up for a month or two…for safety’s sake,eh?

#156 John in Mtl on 03.21.20 at 8:22 pm

Cheer up Lads, look outside and breathe the air! Ahhhhh….

With this massive planetary slowdown, air pollution must be way down and the sun which helps you make a vital element to help your immune system (vitamin D) shines brighter without all those planes and fine particles in the atmosphere! Go outside and enjoy the day, it may be your last one if this virus gets you and your defenses are weak.

Will be interesting to see some climate & air quality stats of this period in a few weeks/months. We may yet attain our pollutant limit agreements.

PS: anyone with a working crystal ball around here? is it market bottom yet?

#157 DON on 03.21.20 at 8:26 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/tens-of-thousands-are-getting-laid-off-in-the-u-s-shale-patch?srnd=premium

#158 Asiakid on 03.21.20 at 8:28 pm

#45 Doug Rowat on 03.21.20 at 1:48 pm
#12 Asiakid on 03.21.20 at 12:08 pm

But go ahead, reason to yourself why America is so much different and better. Pretty sure the smartest people in the room wouldn’t bet their money on America to handle this more smoothly than China.

Carl Icahn just increased his holdings in Hertz Global and Warren Buffett just added to Delta Air Lines.

And you think emerging markets are risky in this environment?

I’ve heard that they’re smart. I’ve also heard that they’re successful.

–Doug

—————-

Thanks for replying. However, pointing to two smart investors and their two singular stock picks underlines my pt exactly rather than prove yours.

1) statistically (and I might not be in finance but I am pretty good in math), two smart investors investing in two stocks in the US does not make any significant representation of the smartest investors in the world. What are all the other top investors doing? I won’t even get into the specifics of the stocks themselves but I imagine there is intrinsic value or guarantee just based on book value and whatever calculations of consolidation plays etc that all but guarantees value even at this amt (FYI I do like dal as well)

2) you think the smartest guys in the room are 2 god-like investors. Definitely, some of the smartest people out there. However, in this case, I am referencing the smartest mathematicians, scientists, doctors, and especially governments (who have access to these smart people and act in a way that efficiently incorporates and weighs all of this information ). If my family’s life is in danger as covina 19 is potentially heading my way, I wouldn’t be asking buffet or icahn about my chances and, I hope, you neither.

Btw, it is a bit comical to see your post about us’ readiness as compared to China when in China the entire economy is nearly cashless and miles ahead of the US in various areas of innovation (especially when you consider the starting pt and acceleration rate). Also, let’s see the US build a hospital in ten days to raise the line.

Fyr, I own a business in Asia with offices in different cities of China among elsewhere and so have on the ground reports from people who live/work in china and the government actions. I also have a fancy degree from a school that supposedly has some of the quantitatively smartest people in at least Boston area. I am nowhere near the genius of my peers but at least I can say I know some really smart people and even if I don’t know the smartest ones I can read and complete my dd to figure out who the smartest people are and the key messages. In this situation, I simply ask what the smartest governments are doing when not impeded by any limitation in medical capacity or need for citizens’ approval or whatever other random reason.

As someone else has already laid out in the comments section, the US had weeks (months!) to prepare for this and even when it was staring them in the face they still weren’t getting ready because of a lack of government solidarity in acting.

2 months ago before this got bad, I had a nice hypothetical discussion with others to rank which countries would do well to handle Coronavirus versus horribly. China and Singapore came out as my top picks – proven consistency of govt to look out for countries’ longterm development, comfort of society to accept orders by gov if given, and willingness to set aside certain individual freedoms to achieve greater good. Which countries would do bad? Countries that had high individual freedom/autonomy was my first criteria.

Ak

#159 Doctor Zhivago on 03.21.20 at 8:31 pm

#152 NewWest on 03.21.20 at 8:12 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Dr. Katz, the author, is an actual doctor, an expert in public health and preventative medicine.

Excellent article. Thanks for posting it. Makes total sense…

#160 earthboundmisfit on 03.21.20 at 8:32 pm

U.S. administration sending $1000.00 to every registered voter. My first thought was “Great, another addition to the Easy Rider Rifle Rack”

As an aside, (#130 Penny Henny) kindly refrain from using the word “retarded” in your posts.

#161 CC on 03.21.20 at 8:40 pm

#152 NewWest

Only sped-read the article, so perhaps missing something, but I have also wondered why we could not take the approach of protecting/isolating the vulnerable whilst minimizing the hit to the economy. The author mentions that in order to take that we would need to do lots more testing. Maybe we just can’t ramp that up fast enough to make her vision a realistic alternative. For now, perhaps, social distancing for everyone is the only practical solution presuming we take the stance we are taking which is that lives are more important than the hit to the economy — something that some blogdogs appear not to agree with.

#162 Drinking on 03.21.20 at 8:41 pm

#105 Stan Brooks

Unfortunately the U.K. will be Italy and Spain in the next few weeks. They were warned, they saw, (that is the politicians and fools); this is not good! Could add Florida to that as well!!

#163 Flop... on 03.21.20 at 8:45 pm

I remarked the other day how the parks in Vancouver have been so packed with modified Spring Break and sunshine aplenty.

I expect to see less people walking around in the next few days as the weather returns to the more familiar forecast of oodles of rain.

One more week of Spring Break for teachers.

They have been told to report to work on Monday the 30th.

Don’t know what they will do with no kids.

Catch up on all the gossip, maybe.

From a distance, of course.

I told the wife they should cancel the Professional Development days for the rest of the year to make up for lost teaching time.

Won’t happen…

M45BC

#164 Doug Rowat on 03.21.20 at 8:57 pm

#133 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 6:53 pm

“equating investing with gambling eh.
slippery slope I guess.”

I am an investor and a gambler and I can tell you that the iron clad rule of investing/gambling are one and the same. I speak from 40 years of success in both fields…

Investing, gambling, pointless bragging. A multitasker.

–Doug

#165 CJohnC on 03.21.20 at 8:58 pm

#143 Richmond will be underwater by 2014

Thought the took the guns out of Canadian Tire except for Yellowknife years ago

#166 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 9:07 pm

How far we have fallen so fast. Now its illegal to not isolate yourself by fine or jail. Wonder if Trudeau is sending money for fines too.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/governments-threaten-fines-arrest-if-orders-to-distance-and-isolate-not-followed/ar-BB11vXls?ocid=spartanntp

#167 Canada Strong in Vic on 03.21.20 at 9:18 pm

Great article by Dr Katz, well worth the read.

#168 Raging Ranter on 03.21.20 at 9:18 pm

@#152, is Dr. Katz an epidemiologist or virologist?

Answer: No. Then he’s not an “actual expert” in the subject at hand . Actual experts are saying very different things.

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

For future reference, when your prostate starts to bother you, talk to your urologist, not your neurologist.

While I agree that, had we acted earlier and with more purpose, we could have avoided shut down mode and saved the economy from ruin, that time – according to actual actual experts – is long past. Dr. Katz is therefore indulging in last month’s debate.

#169 Sail Away on 03.21.20 at 9:24 pm

Circling back to Garth’s comment a few days ago with his mysterious reason for moving to Lunenberg.

My theory:

If you’ve read his books, you know Garth is an inveterate prepper. Not the zombie-apocalypse type, but more a financial system collapse, climate catastrophe, and (my guess) possible remote nuclear conflict type.

So: Lunenberg, stone castle, boat for self-sufficiency. Winds that will move fallout away, rather than toward, that location. Cool temperatures.

My guess is prepping. The secret room in the castle has 17,000 rolls of tp.

#170 TrendIsYourFriend on 03.21.20 at 9:27 pm

I like your thinking Doug.
I said few days ago here – waiting for copper to drop to 1.9ish, that should pull FCX and TECK down to 2016 lows, then I am buying some, beside COPX.
My beloved vehicles EWZ RSX (nice tradeable ups and downs) are on sale now too. And China ASHR is relatively strong, down 25% only, despite all Wuhan lock downs.

#171 Sail Away on 03.21.20 at 9:33 pm

@#136 CJohnC on 03.21.20 at 7:18 pm

At least in Canada there isn’t also a run on guns and ammo

———————-

Wrong.

Canadian Tire, Cabelas, Walmart – sold out of ammo except for odd calibers that are the equivalent of firearm lima beans.

#172 SW on 03.21.20 at 9:43 pm

Interesting times.
I think Canadian governments are conducting themselves well.
I have to apologise about referring to Doug Ford as an oaf last week.
This week, it’s your smart uncle Douglas at the lectern. Good that he’s not as stupid as he makes out now he’s stopped trying to make Liberals’ heads explode.

And for all of you nostalgic about the joys of olde rural Canada, here’s a musical interlude from Fred Eaglesmith:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQbz3T6MGsY

#173 TrendIsYourFriend on 03.21.20 at 9:52 pm

I think it was legendary J. Livermore who said, when it comes to market timing- there is time to buy, time to sell and time to do nothing.

I am now in “time to do nothing” mode.

When we get the relief rally, all fintwit and cnbc pundits will change the tune overnight. When the rally fizzles and we get second leg down, that’s when real capitulation will happen and “time to buy” comes. Not yet.

Now, if the rally holds, that will also be “time to buy”, don’t know how’s this going to play out. Open to all possibilities. I paid my education to Mr.Market thinking Technical Analysis is a prediction tool and listening to cnbc anal-ysts.

#174 Rexx Rock on 03.21.20 at 9:55 pm

Here’s a funny story.On our way back from LA a friend and I ran out of money so we had to pick grapes.That was in 1987 and the farm workers all looked like they seen a ghost.Two white guys picking grapes listening to AC DC on our gettoblaster.The boss in all his 28 years he has never seen two young caucasian guys working in the vineyard.

So if you need money any kind of work will do.It seems no one has no savings now with the high cost of living.

#175 Barb on 03.21.20 at 10:05 pm

Daughter is a department manager in a retail food store.
Owners gave every employee a $2.00 / hr raise today.

Stress pay.

#176 CJohnC on 03.21.20 at 10:12 pm

#152 NewWest

Thx for that very intelligent article. Everyone should read it including Trudeau and all the federal and provincial health officers

#177 akashic record on 03.21.20 at 10:22 pm

#138 CJohnC on 03.21.20 at 7:18 pm

Costco Today.
No T/P
No Eggs.
No canned goods, (soup, meats,etc)
No salads.
Almost no meat.
No butter.

At least in Canada there isn’t also a run on guns and ammo. Apparently in the US the gun business is up 10%, many of them first time buyers. That should end well.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-us-panic-buying-guns-ammo-nra-a9403886.html

You can get most of it in smaller stores. Not in bulk and not at bulk price. People will also start to run out of money to spend on hoarding as the economy is winding down and jobless rate spikes.

Run on guns is scheduled to happen in about two weeks.
At least if the pattern is the European countries.

#178 akashic record on 03.21.20 at 10:26 pm

#175 Barb on 03.21.20 at 10:05 pm

Daughter is a department manager in a retail food store.
Owners gave every employee a $2.00 / hr raise today.

Stress pay.

Preemptive step for potential lawsuits.
In many countries cashiers are now behind plexyglass shield.

#179 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 10:36 pm

De-urbanization in motion in India.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-migrants-idUSKBN2180KL

#180 NewWest on 03.21.20 at 10:47 pm

#168 Raging Ranter on 03.21.20 at 9:18 pm

@#152, is Dr. Katz an epidemiologist or virologist?

Answer: No. Then he’s not an “actual expert” in the subject at hand . Actual experts are saying very different things.

————————-

And what expertise do you have, RR, that allows you to make such sweeping judgment?

This is precisely what I was talking about in my post. So Dr. Katz, who has an Masters degree from Yale in Public Health, is not an expert, while Dr. Brilliant, who has a Masters degree in Public Health from the University of Michigan, is? And have you ever looked at the course of study for a degree in Public Health? There is a School of Epidemiology and Public Health at the University of Ottawa. Hmm, maybe that gives us a clue…..

Reading the interview of Dr. Brilliant you cite I I see no contradictions. He references many of the same things as Dr. Katz does, including the necessity for herd immunity and the actual data from Korea and Wuhan.

Your post is precisely part of the problem with the current Rule By Internet that has lead us to this unfortunate situation. I note that you do not give us your credentials so that we can determine if your opinion is something we should pay attention to. Instead you dismiss an expert opinion – and yes, he is an expert – because, I suppose, he doesn’t agree with your off the cuff opinion?

By the way, you may well want to get a neurologist involved with your prostate issues. Prostate cancer can lead to neurological symptoms and impairments. Mind you, if it was me I’d seek out expert advise as to what specialist I might want to consult with without judging beforehand.

#181 Cowtown Cowboy on 03.21.20 at 11:09 pm

Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.21.20 at 12:29 pm
I have changed my view of the virus. I can admit it, I was wrong.
I knew China was lying. We all knew it. We wanted the 1% death rate so badly. They told us what we were lusting to hear and we bought it. Now we are behind.

Two weeks ago I was scared for the economy and my portfolio.
Well the economy has been wiped out and so has my portfolio.
I don’t care because now I am scarred of the virus. Truly and completely scarred. I have friends who are first responders and 2 family members that are nurses. What they are preparing for is apocalyptic. They are fully expecting these scinarios they are training for to begin to play out next week.
This is a bigger crisis than WWII. By a mile. This is the defining crisis of our generation(S).
There will be no US election in November.
America’s men and women in uniform will be called home soon.
Forget about your portfolios and worry about you and yours health.
Good luck to you all.

You’re an idiot

#182 Doug in London on 03.21.20 at 11:10 pm

With petrol being so cheap, you’d think I would be driving my DeLorean car more, but with so little traffic I’ve been using my bike to get around instead. I’ve shut off the flux capacitor so it doesn’t run down the battery. With all the money I’m saving on transportation I’ll make like a tree and get out of here, then take your advice and scoop up some XEM.

#183 BS on 03.21.20 at 11:16 pm

107 conan on 03.21.20 at 5:36 pm

“Does anyone believe that the US, with less than a third of China’s population and considerably more health care infrastructure, won’t be able to accomplish the same?”

From what I hear there are going to be Italy 2.0. I have talked to Canadians who just got out the USA and they said all of the Trump States thought it was a hoax and they are weeks behind getting their chit together.

Days count when it comes to flattening the curve and the Trump States are going to get Italy type carnage.

Wow, with New York, Washington, California and New Jersey leading the way with 75% of the CV diagnosis and deaths in the USA all being strong democratic states it shows how delusional Trump Derangement Syndrome can be. I mean you can’t get more delusional than that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/mar/21/coronavirus-map-us-latest-cases-state-by-state

#184 Attrition on 03.21.20 at 11:27 pm

Soon, many are going to learn, yet again, that experts are anything but. Every article or opinion from an expert is hedged.

Haven’t you noticed? They hedge every statement to walk the line between prediction and fact. Statements like, “based on the current”, “the trend indicates”, “according to the models” etc., are hedging.

This doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, it means if you ignore a whole lotta counter points, a whole lotta contrary evidence, it could theoretically happen.

Predicting doom is not only easy, it gets you airtime. It makes you sound and feel important. It might even get you laid. This is what experts do.

I know a few other posters know this. Sadly, many more will shake their heads and insist, no, the virus will get us because so-and-so is an expert, and they said as so, so that means it’s true.

Tell you what: wanna bet?

I’ll even give you odds. In 6 months time, when we’re looking back at this with embarrassment and rage, the only damage–the ONLY damage–will be economic and needless.

Covid hasn’t killed a single human. The underlying diabetes, cancer, pneumonia, and hypertension have, however. Why forget that now?

Perspective is everything. But let me guess: you have an emotional reason why this isn’t true, but your fears are?

#185 Dr V on 03.21.20 at 11:38 pm

With not too much else to do, I looked towards my wife and gazed into her eyes.

She sternly told me Dr. Henry is now strongly
recommending “spousal distancing”.

Can anyone confirm?

#186 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.21.20 at 11:40 pm

#45 Doug Rowat on 03.21.20 at 1:48 pm
#12 Asiakid on 03.21.20 at 12:08 pm

But go ahead, reason to yourself why America is so much different and better. Pretty sure the smartest people in the room wouldn’t bet their money on America to handle this more smoothly than China.

Carl Icahn just increased his holdings in Hertz Global and Warren Buffett just added to Delta Air Lines.

And you think emerging markets are risky in this environment?

I’ve heard that they’re smart. I’ve also heard that they’re successful.

–Doug
—————–
Dougie!
They were smart when they were younger.
Now they have amassed so much money that they are market makers (gurus) that the unwashed financial herd follows.

#187 Reynolds753 on 03.21.20 at 11:43 pm

#48 not 1st on 03.21.20 at 2:00 pm
#19 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.21.20 at 12:29 pm
—–
Use reason and stop giving in to panic. markets got creamed but only weak hands sold and vultures are picking the carcass now.
For the virus, its way overblown. Right now we have lots of places to put people, schools are empty, office towers and hotels vacated, churches. Every city probably has simlar facilities that could be converted. We have military, police, first responders, retired docs, medical students and nurses that we can throw at it. They weren’t prepping school rooms in my kids school to become makeshift hospitals when I took them home.
Again we are whipping up hysteria like its the bubonic plague combined with an asteroid coming but not doing the necessary planning for it.
Doesn’t pass the smell test at all.
__________________________________________________________

I see comments such as this and I just have to shake my head. I am a semi-retired anesthesiologist. You have absolutely no idea as to the difficulty and complexity involved with taking care of critically ill patients. “Military, police, first responders, retired docs, medical students and nurses that we can throw at it.” This statement boggles the mind as to its idiocy. Why would older retired physicians be expected to do this they are at risk given their age. The term “physician” means little. Very, very few physicians have the skill set to manage critical care patients. Nurses? Medical students? The military? Police? Suggestions such as this reflect a total lack of understanding as to the breadth and depth of this impending crisis and subsequent requirement for skilled health care providers. Do you really believe that office towers, churches and vacated hotels could be utilized as intensive care or even intermediate care wards? You are clueless.

Your smell test needs some olfactory readjustment to say the least.

#188 SoggyShorts on 03.21.20 at 11:48 pm

#97 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 5:03 pm
#57 technical analysis on 03.21.20 at 2:35 pm

The biggest reason amateurs go broke in the markets or in gambling is that they let their losses run and not their winnings. The rule is to cut your losses and let your profits run. It is the iron clad rule of investing.
********
Can you clarify this a little please?
It sounds like buying high and selling low.

#189 Captain Ahab on 03.22.20 at 12:04 am

The times we live in will prove what Warren Buffett said, “you don’t know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out.” The tide is now going out folks…

#190 Ronaldo on 03.22.20 at 12:14 am

Tracking of virus throughout the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

#191 Moses71 on 03.22.20 at 12:18 am

Well Millenials may scoff at this virus (check out spring break news) but the Spanish flu started out as a joke until the 2nd coming 6 months later (March then August when the mutation happened), mutated so young people caught it and were dead within hours from suffocating to death. Lungs filling with fluid and turning blue.
Pay attention!!

#192 TurnerNation on 03.22.20 at 12:26 am

#52 Attrition oooh. Super macro. I’d forgotten all about the North American Union. They were supposed to be making the world into 7 economic regions. (Our global rulers always make/use a crisis for changes. Post WW2 they ushered in Communism and turned Germany into a powerhouse.)
NAU would require its own Currency of course…
It’s right in our faces :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Union

#193 Douglas MacArthur on 03.22.20 at 12:28 am

#158 Asiakid

“Btw, it is a bit comical to see your post about us’ readiness as compared to China when in China the entire economy is nearly cashless and miles ahead of the US in various areas of innovation (especially when you consider the starting pt and acceleration rate). Also, let’s see the US build a hospital in ten days to raise the line.”

And miles behind other advanced countries when it comes to hygiene in open slaughter house markets where virus carrying bats, rats and snakes are slaughtered and consumed. This is a animal virus to human transmission cowboy and China is soley responsible for its inception and it is criminally responsible for the worldwide effect on human lives because of its denial of a problem for several months. Give your head a shake and look at the reality of the situation.

#194 Nonplused on 03.22.20 at 12:35 am

Hate to break it to you Doug, this isn’t going to be business as usual.

This is great depression stuff.

The great depression ended of course, and great fortunes were made afterword. The rivers still flow and the flowers still will grace the fields in the spring. The world hasn’t ended. Nothing of real value has changed.

But something has permanently changed about our perceptions. “Notional” won’t be a thing going forward. But that might not be a bad thing.

I was bemused recently when it was suggested that Sir Richard (Virgin) should sell his island retreat to continue paying his employees through this crisis. “Sell it to whom” I thought. It turns out that some of what we call wealth is actually a great liability. A great reckoning awaits us. Many ideas that we hold dear will be seen to be fig leaves in the face of Dog.

#195 porkiestime on 03.22.20 at 1:21 am

Interesting that people and media have stopped talking about or reporting on the massive swine virus in China in 2019.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-27/deadly-virus-has-slashed-china-s-pig-herd-by-half-rabobank-says

#196 DON on 03.22.20 at 1:23 am

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/21/uk-estate-agent-accused-of-inhumane-sacking-of-staff

“It’s not really even about losing our jobs because we understand there is going to be casualties and the property market is one that is going to be affected by this, so we understand that. But the way they have done it so coldly and inhumanely and unprofessionally is disgraceful.

“In a time like this, when people are meant to be pulling together and they aren’t even giving us two minutes notice and there isn’t even a ‘thank you’ or a ‘sorry’ or ‘rest assured you will all be looked after’ after all the money we made for them.

“They didn’t need to do it like this. They could have done it in a way that was kind to their staff.”

Haart has not responded to a request for comment on this story.

Haynes is not the only one to have been laid off in similar circumstances. Stories are flooding social media, including news that Cineworld in Liverpool let go of more than 50 staff who were eligible for sick pay.”

#197 NFN_NLN on 03.22.20 at 1:28 am

#86 Yukon Elvis on 03.21.20 at 4:29 pm

Well said. China lost a lot of credibility on this one. Hard to get it back.

https://nationalpost.com/health/bio-warfare-experts-question-why-canada-was-sending-lethal-viruses-to-china

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

—-

Someone should notify the US media, haha:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzhHbuLj4rs&t=23m37s

#198 GOLDENBOY on 03.22.20 at 1:40 am

Before the markets tanked I wasn’t happy with my adviser having 25% of my investments in GIC’S.
not too upset now although when things recover I do plan to make some changes. My wife works for Loblaws and is run ragged at work and could possibly put us at risk as we are over 60. I don’t own a lot of individual stocks but having a fairly large holding of Loblaw shares have also helped us not lose the farm in this situation. You would think grocers and Walmart shares would have climbed much higher under the circumstances. Good on Galen Weston boosting wages for his employees as it’s the least he could do considering the profits increasing as people hoard an amazing array of products. I was there today, no pasta or sauce,TP,diapers, kleenex, peanut butter…etc.
People have lost their minds.

#199 NoName on 03.22.20 at 1:43 am

#222 Flywest29 on 03.21.20 at 11:25 am
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Bit of a read but very good analysis of the current situation and where we are going by this gross overreaction.

interesting tread regarding article…

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241522140559503360

#200 Spectacle on 03.22.20 at 1:51 am

Major heads up Blog Dogs.
Trump accidentally tweeted that a combination of tried and known drugs ( which I will not mention ) may be some witchcraft remedy for Corona.

Warning, the combination of Drugs will kill in a matter of days. On their own they are an anti viral, and anti malaria.

Together, they kill.

Ps:: If You want some reassurance for loved ones and family, look into Taiwan. They only have 4? Deaths and 85 or so cases of Corona – 19 since January, in the whole Nation.

Life is now going on as usual, kids masked in schools, all businesses open , hand sanitizer and soap everywhere. Masks, .20 cents each, 2 per person each and every week. Let’s just begin doing this ourselves now. Do yourself a fave and reduce your stress, and learn how to go on living. Ignore Trump!

Thanks Garth and Doug ( great article too !).

#201 NoName on 03.22.20 at 2:16 am

@flop

ok then, i go now, i dont come toomorw back.

#202 al on 03.22.20 at 2:41 am

The shifting of weighting is all for naught for almost any PM. This only one example. But then many would be out of a very lucrative job. I liked the post.

#203 rural perspective on 03.22.20 at 4:40 am

I went to USD before this thing broke news. I already had my finger on the trigger based on shipping news since last September. What’s the safe haven? I can’t afford to gamble. Too much fluff in p/e, not enough productivity, changing consumer behaviour. For eons I have been promoting to friends the all time historical US Employment chart: things start looking too good, then boom, like a thief in the night. Since, I’m sitting about 20% CAD, 15% USD, 40% land/re, 10% gic, 10% equip/fuel, 5% receivables, LOC empty, $500 on credit, and next season’s crop in storage. I’m thinking about ditching more USD when normalcy allows some of the recent stimuli back into the marketplace. Probably start playing with tfsa again in August. Meanwhile, farm life. Lots of prep. Shouts out to anyone in the Cariboo—trim that brush, fire season in two months!

#204 T. on 03.22.20 at 6:34 am

“At least in Canada there isn’t also a run on guns and ammo”

Are you kidding? There is, and i been having a field day laughing at the people who thought “no one needs a gun” now desperate to get one, and can’t because they never bothered to get a PAL.

#205 Jesse Livermore on 03.22.20 at 7:40 am

#188 SoggyShorts on 03.21.20 at 11:48 pm
#97 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 5:03 pm
#57 technical analysis on 03.21.20 at 2:35 pm

The biggest reason amateurs go broke in the markets or in gambling is that they let their losses run and not their winnings. The rule is to cut your losses and let your profits run. It is the iron clad rule of investing.
********
Can you clarify this a little please?
It sounds like buying high and selling low.
_________________________________________

I would suggest you read Jack Schwager’s great books:
Market Wizards, New Market Wizards, Hedge Fund Market Wizards, The Little Book of Market Wizards. These books interview the world’s top traders and how they trade. They are complete gems. To add to my comments about trading having the same rules of gambling read Gambling Wizards: Interviews with the world’s greatest gamblers and you will find they talk about the same principles. The very same.

Now to answer your question. It is not buying high and selling low. It is hanging on to losers because of pride, ignorance or a combination thereof. You can buy high and watch it go higher and higher and higher. You can buy low and watch it go lower and lower and lower. Your winners have to be bigger in gambling or investing to offset your smaller losers. Most people in gambling or investing do the opposite. They allow their losses to be big and allow their wins to be small which will not offset their losses. Easier said than done for most.

#206 conan on 03.22.20 at 8:04 am

I mean you can’t get more delusional than that.-BS

It’s a record of fact that Trump fiddled while the Corona raged. Like I said before, days really count.

You can deny that all you want….. because in reality, its the people who support Trump that are delusional.

The market meltdown will hurt Trump in the election.
His delay and denial on Corona will hurt him even more.

Those are two very factual statements. Not some ramblings of a delusional Democrat, who thinks Trump is the worst thing to ever happen to America. Which , by the way, is also a fact…..

.

#207 James on 03.22.20 at 8:14 am

Thanks for the blog post, Doug. I was just thinking of this very same topic.

#208 Dolce Vita on 03.22.20 at 8:23 am

#123 crazyfox

Firstly, stop watching & quoting N. American MSM.

The only hospitals overrun are in Bergamo…which of course they show over and over again. The video is British and their commentary NIGHT & DAY from the dubbed N. American versions. And they are not overrun, barely coping.

AND those beloved sources fail to tell you that since Mar. 9th there have been ZERO new cases from Codogno and Vò, where it all started, not far from Bergamo.

Did you know that?

Of course you did, NOT.

Like the N. American MSM and yourself, you dwell on the worst…macabre to say the least.

As for the Germans, their deaths shot up yesterday. It is because they have not been testing at the level Italia has…though DW News tells you otherwise (well, they show a Test location sign in a window, ipso facto, we test…bizarre logic beyond words). And suffice to say the Germans, with their WHO RANKED HEALTHCARE SYSTEM:

#25 (Canada #30, Italia #2)

they at peak will have many more problems than we are.

——————————–

Did it ever occur to you our population is older because we are healthier and living longer?

Of course it didn’t as you have this Missionary Zeal for the macabre and misinformation.

——————————–

Join others in your “non sequitur” of logic.

After all, misery does love company.

PS:

Lastly, stay away from Worldometer and YouTube where that site has gained traction from with the “15 sec immediate gratification crowd” and instead if you want details about what is truly happening here, subscribe to Protezione Civile on Twitter (learn to use Translate) or go to this site:

http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1

Now, compare that to your pathetic Worldometer.

——————————–

Now, go back to your immediate gratification buddies and wallow in the ditch with them.

#209 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.22.20 at 8:39 am

@#113 CrazyCat
“I am sure, BytorTheSnowdog, SailAway and CrowdedElevatorFartz amongst others, will be happy to make signs and bring coffee….”
+++
You forgot the donuts.
Not to worry.
I’ll pick them up on the way and be sure to personally hand them out to every person after I lick the sugar off my fingers each and every time.

#210 Dr Talc on 03.22.20 at 8:59 am

The flu provides plausible deniability for the negative health effects of 5g, which is going into public schools. Stay home, self isolated, cause when they flick the switch, people dropping in the streets would just like the 5 g rollout in a place called Wuhan

#211 Jimers on 03.22.20 at 9:01 am

The world would be in a much bigger mess and heading down the globalist toilet if the USA did not have a great leader like DJ Trump in charge.

#212 MF on 03.22.20 at 9:05 am

#204 T. on 03.22.20 at 6:34 am

No one needs a gun and no one is upset they don’t have a PAL.

Isn’t a PAL for hunting animals or law enforcement? Last time i checked pandemic wasnt on that list.

Meh i guess whatever gives a false sense of control.

MF

#213 Doug Rowat on 03.22.20 at 9:12 am

#188 SoggyShorts on 03.21.20 at 11:48 pm
#97 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 5:03 pm
#57 technical analysis on 03.21.20 at 2:35 pm

The biggest reason amateurs go broke in the markets or in gambling is that they let their losses run and not their winnings. The rule is to cut your losses and let your profits run. It is the iron clad rule of investing.
********

Can you clarify this a little please?
It sounds like buying high and selling low.

Is it “you have to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em”?

RIP Kenny.

–Doug

#214 Penny Henny on 03.22.20 at 9:15 am

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.21.20 at 7:10 pm
Totally out of left field.
My losses are significant but I’m curious.
How much have the richest plutocrats lost in the past month?
The worlds richest billionaires?
Elon Musk?
Bill Gates?
Even billionaires must gulp a few times when their personal wealth drops by 25-40% in a month.
////////////////

The numbers are so big it doesn’t really matter though does it.
Even if your 10 billion shrunk to 1 billion would anything change in your life?
You still wouldn’t be able to spend that in your lifetime.

#215 Penny Henny on 03.22.20 at 9:35 am

#160 earthboundmisfit on 03.21.20 at 8:32 pm
U.S. administration sending $1000.00 to every registered voter. My first thought was “Great, another addition to the Easy Rider Rifle Rack”

As an aside, (#130 Penny Henny) kindly refrain from using the word “retarded” in your posts.
////////////

Not me…. I just cut and pasted Stone’s comments.

#216 Raging Ranter on 03.22.20 at 9:42 am

@#158 Asiakid,

…in China the entire economy is nearly cashless and miles ahead of the US in various areas of innovation…

Does a cashless society give a government more power to track and suppress its citizens? Or less? (That’s a rhetorical question, just answer it in your head.) I don’t doubt China is light years ahead of the rest of the world when it comes to building a surveillance state.

The country that has done the best job of tamping down the epidemic so far is neither China nor the US. It’s Taiwan. A jurisdiction whose very existence is in direct and open defiance to the wishes of the PRC. While China was denying it had a problem and silencing doctors who tried to sound the alarm, Taiwan was preparing itself.

#217 Dharma Bum on 03.22.20 at 9:58 am

#138 CJohnC

At least in Canada there isn’t also a run on guns and ammo. Apparently in the US the gun business is up 10%, many of them first time buyers. That should end well.
——————————————————————–

Yah. Gotta watch out for those gun buying rookies, fer sure.

Myself, I haven’t bought a single roll of TP (guess we had enough on hand when the s.h.t.f. – so to speak), but I did split 1000 rounds of 9mm cartridges with my buddy, who ordered them over the phone and picked them up at a “drive-by” pick up stop set up by the gun store out in Whitby.

I’m ready for anyone who wants to try to steal my meagre TP cache.

#218 Flail Away on 03.22.20 at 10:00 am

@#148 Speaking of inane, emotion-driven attacks on others…

Aren’t you the guy who posted this stalkerish, creepy comment..

—————————–
“#70 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 7:21 pm

You know how it is when you run from the cops and escape, but they actually know who you are?

You become their hobby.”
—————————–

Yikes!

But wait, you followed it up with a Trudeau-like apology of maybe you didn’t experience that like I intended.

Rolled my eyes at your apology but I did enjoy the similarities with Trudeau’s explanation of his behaviour 20 some years ago.

I guess it is true.. we are all under the delusion that ours doesn’t stink.

Perhaps if you have time between counting the G&M references to Trump you could take a peek at Cathal Kelly’s column. I believe he mentions Trump in passing.

#219 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 10:13 am

#208 Dolce Vita on 03.22.20 at 8:23 am

Appreciate your honest reporting from the ground in Italy. None of what you are telling us is getting through to the average person back in NA and its creating a hysteria here.

People are already ready to sign off on all there civil liberties because of what they see in Italy.

Please keep posting regularly.

#220 Dharma Bum on 03.22.20 at 10:16 am

#35 Attrition

Why should billions suffer economically so hundreds of thousands won’t catch what is, for 80-90%, a mild cold?
——————————————————————-

Exactly.

I just don’t get it.

Mind boggling.

Since when did the idea of the needs of the many outweighing the needs of a few fly out the window?

#221 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 10:38 am

#187 Reynolds753 on 03.21.20 at 11:43 pm

—–

Then friend, if none of those things are being considered, then its not an emergency is it? I think your critical reasoning is unhooked.

Look up the Spanish flu, nuns were taking care of people in churches.

You sound just like the FDA guy. We are in as serious war against a killer that will take most of us, but we need 18 months of mouse maze studies to come up with a treatment.

If its a war, then make it a war already. Get the facilities sitting there ready to go staffed with whoever can help and then put all our ivory tower eggheads in one room to Manhattan project a treatment.

Or is your solution we stay in our homes for 18 months?

#222 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.22.20 at 10:39 am

#220 Dharma Bum on 03.22.20 at 10:16 am sez, in response to #35 Attrition’s comment that:

‘Why should billions suffer economically so hundreds of thousands won’t catch what is, for 80-90%, a mild cold?’
——————————————————————-
“Exactly.

I just don’t get it.

Mind boggling.

Since when did the idea of the needs of the many outweighing the needs of a few fly out the window?”
—————————————-
Virtue signalers never miss a chance to virtue signal. Witness many of the comments in this thread.

#223 MF on 03.22.20 at 10:46 am

#220 Dharma Bum on 03.22.20 at 10:16 am

Honest question. What don’t you get?

What would you do differently?

MF

#224 CC on 03.22.20 at 10:56 am

@Attrition and Dharma Bum, Does this help you to understand?

An intensive care doctor in Toronto is pleading with political leaders to take bold steps now to impose a lockdown, warning that Ontario’s health system could face “total collapse” if the spread of COVID-19 is not slowed.

Dr. Michael Warner is medical director of the intensive care unit (ICU) at Michael Garron Hospital and chairs the critical care section of the Ontario Medical Association.

“It’s World War Three,” Warner said in an interview with CBC News. “This could be an unmitigated disaster. This is the time to overreact. If I’m wrong, that’s great, but at least we’re prepared. But if I’m not wrong, then we’re in major trouble.”

The number of new coronavirus cases in Ontario has grown by an average of 21 per cent daily over the past week. That means the total number of cases is doubling every four days, and if that rate of growth were to continue, Ontario’s 2,053 ICU beds stand to run out by mid-to-late April.

“We should expect a massive influx of COVID-19 patients into our hospitals, both ill and critically ill,” said Warner.

“We have to be prepared for the worst case scenario,” he added. “This is the time to overreact to what potentially could happen, not to hope for the best.”….

Cancelling scheduled surgeries, as many Ontario hospitals are now doing, can help free some beds on regular wards but does little to relieve the pressure in the critical care wards, says Warner. Heart attacks, strokes, car crashes, overdoses and major infectious diseases that are not COVID-19 will continue to happen.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-intensive-care-doctor-1.5504349

#225 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 10:58 am

#212 MF on 03.22.20 at 9:05 am

Isn’t a PAL for hunting animals or law enforcement? Last time i checked pandemic wasnt on that list.

————————–

No, the PAL is a deeply mysterious document, whose very existence is shrouded in tangential misdirection and obfuscation.

Google would never, ever be able to reveal its actual purpose. Not even if you had two seconds. Much better to ask the question. Reveals a deep and abiding thirst for knowledge.

#226 Doug in London on 03.22.20 at 11:02 am

On second thought, I’ll try to get that flux capacitor working again, jump into the DeLorean, go back to New Year’s Day and tell my past self to cash in all equities and not buy them back until mid March.

#227 Yukon Elvis on 03.22.20 at 11:10 am

#217 Dharma Bum on 03.22.20 at 9:58 am
#138 CJohnC

At least in Canada there isn’t also a run on guns and ammo. Apparently in the US the gun business is up 10%, many of them first time buyers. That should end well.
——————————————————————–

Yah. Gotta watch out for those gun buying rookies, fer sure.

Myself, I haven’t bought a single roll of TP (guess we had enough on hand when the s.h.t.f. – so to speak), but I did split 1000 rounds of 9mm cartridges with my buddy, who ordered them over the phone and picked them up at a “drive-by” pick up stop set up by the gun store out in Whitby.

I’m ready for anyone who wants to try to steal my meagre TP cache.
……………………..

Peasant. I’m holding about 11,000.

#228 TurnerNation on 03.22.20 at 11:19 am

Fishman ** why would they close down profitable BC Pulp mills at this time? The government will cause more shortage and panic. I suspect that’s the plan. Communism and a new world government won’t come easily. We must be softened up.

#229 MF on 03.22.20 at 11:28 am

#225 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 10:58 am

So a PAL is, in fact, most useful for giving a false sense of control.

Got it thanks.

MF

#230 Dogman01 on 03.22.20 at 11:31 am

CBE just interviewed a working guy from Ottawa, he was brilliant. Clearly and articulately explained the real plight of working Canadians in our essentially merciless system of “you work or you do not eat”

His EI will barely cover rent, his landlord is not being deferred mortgage payment by our Banks, his choice debt slavery and then end up going back to work regardless of community safety.

Our elites need to understand the lack of resiliency in “our system” where we have engineered a standard of living to drop to facilitate massive wealth accumulation by a small minority; essentially we been living close to the end game of Monopoly. (with debt being used to extend t as it is so fun for the winners)

I just do not thing the decision makers can understand money for poor people;

The easiest way for you to learn about money is for you not to have any.
– Katharine Whitehorn

The trouble with being poor is that it takes up all of your time.
– Willem de Kooning

#231 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 11:41 am

#218 Flail Away on 03.22.20 at 10:00 am
@#148 Speaking of inane, emotion-driven attacks on others…

Aren’t you the guy who posted this stalkerish, creepy comment..

——————–

“#70 Sail away on 03.04.20 at 7:21 pm

You know how it is when you run from the cops and escape, but they actually know who you are?

You become their hobby.”

——————–

Yikes!

——————–

Yes, it is true. I did indeed post that.

I was well into my plan to travel to Lunenberg, break into Garth’s stone castle, hack his computer, pull the IP address of my intended victim (mwahaha!), further hack their actual name and home address like ‘The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’ did, and begin a complicated plot to destroy their credibility, haunt their every move and bring them DOWN, even if it meant the loss of all I hold dear… when I decided to go for a walk on the beach instead.

It was touch and go for a few minutes.

#232 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 11:45 am

#224 CC on 03.22.20 at 10:56 am
—-

So you and this doctor are advocating an enforced locked down of the entire population at the barrel of a gun as the solution to this?

#233 Jimers on 03.22.20 at 11:45 am

BIL told me a PAL is now only required to transport long arms since the Conservatives abolished the Long Arm Registry. That you can have say a shotgun at home without a PAL. Can anyone confirm or deny that?

#234 Flop... on 03.22.20 at 12:02 pm

People in Australia seem pretty mad.

Apparently 3 years ago they had a bad flu season and 1255 people died.

Economic damage was minimal.

Corona 2020 so far has been attributed to 7 deaths.

They have just taken the next step into lockdown.

I guess we will see in 9 months how the two final numbers compare…

M45BC

#235 Reynolds753 on 03.22.20 at 12:03 pm

not 1st on 03.22.20 at 10:38 am
#187 Reynolds753 on 03.21.20 at 11:43 pm
—–
Then friend, if none of those things are being considered, then its not an emergency is it? I think your critical reasoning is unhooked.
Look up the Spanish flu, nuns were taking care of people in churches.
You sound just like the FDA guy. We are in as serious war against a killer that will take most of us, but we need 18 months of mouse maze studies to come up with a treatment.
If its a war, then make it a war already. Get the facilities sitting there ready to go staffed with whoever can help and then put all our ivory tower eggheads in one room to Manhattan project a treatment.
Or is your solution we stay in our homes for 18 months?
__________________________________________________________________________________

I would refer you to comment #224.

Round up all of the nuns and priests that you can. They will have no idea as to how to manage critically ill patients. 1918 is light years away from 2020 in terms of medical care. Most patients with acute respiratory distress died in 1918 as there was no way to treat them. Is this an example of your critical thinking?

This “FDA guy” that you refer to: what does that mean? Perhaps you should familiarize yourself with Dr. Anthony Fauci of the NIH. Perhaps he might be to much of an “ivory tower egghead” for you.

Yes, prepare all you can with unused space. It might serve as quarantine space. It will not serve as intensive care space.

The immediate, acute response at the present time is to have the population isolate themselves as best as they can. One day, one week at a time. Eighteen months is a long way from today.

#236 SoggyShorts on 03.22.20 at 12:29 pm

#205 Jesse Livermore on 03.22.20 at 7:40 am
#188 SoggyShorts on 03.21.20 at 11:48 pm
#97 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 5:03 pm
#57 technical analysis on 03.21.20 at 2:35 pm

Thanks for the response.

#237 Richmond will be under water by 2014 on 03.22.20 at 12:31 pm

Hey just received this from one of my aforementioned first responder friends.
FYI

Hey guys, just sending a message to everyone from what I’ve learned about everything going on here in the last few days at work, it’s not to stress anyone out, just to pass on what I know for you guys. We have a covid19 task force set up at work and our liaison is the head trauma doctor at royal columbian hospital, who is the head of their own task force.
He had advised us at work that from now on when we go on any call we have to be wearing our air packs and be on air. For 2 reasons, the most important is the seriousness of the spread and 2nd is we can’t get anymore masks(we only have enough for 4 more days for the department). As we all know by now this virus is no joke.
The Royal Columbian task force has also contacted Dr. Henry and informed her she is not doing enough to stop this, and as of now we are losing the fight in BC against the virus. We were told yesterday that on Monday the province will lock down, so be prepared for that.
Again as we have all been told, he could not stress enough that distancing is the only way to stop this. I know everyone on here is practicing that so let’s keep it up.
It really hit home for me when he told us we are not far off from where Italy was at the same point we are now. So we have to take drastic measures now to stop it.

I will pass on any relevant new info I learn for you guys.

#238 Lambchop on 03.22.20 at 12:48 pm

#233 Jimers on 03.22.20 at 11:45 am
BIL told me a PAL is now only required to transport long arms since the Conservatives abolished the Long Arm Registry. That you can have say a shotgun at home without a PAL. Can anyone confirm or deny that?

______________________

Long gun registry was a registry of your long guns with the gov’t. The abolishment of it simply means that you no longer have to register your non-restricted firearm once you purchase it.
You still have to have a PAL to purchase, transport and possess any type of firearm or ammunition, and if you want a handgun, a special restrictedPAL is required.

They won’t even let you hold a gun in a store without first seeing your PAL.

#239 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 1:11 pm

#229 MF on 03.22.20 at 11:28 am

So a PAL is, in fact, most useful for giving a false sense of control.

Got it thanks.

———————-

No. The PAL is, in actual fact, most useful for legally possessing or acquiring a firearm in Canada.

Its name provides a subtle and often-overlooked clue. See if you can spot it:

Possession and Acquisition License (PAL)

#240 DON on 03.22.20 at 1:26 pm

203 rural perspective on 03.22.20 at 4:40 am

I went to USD before this thing broke news. I already had my finger on the trigger based on shipping news since last September. What’s the safe haven? I can’t afford to gamble. Too much fluff in p/e, not enough productivity, changing consumer behaviour. For eons I have been promoting to friends the all time historical US Employment chart: things start looking too good, then boom, like a thief in the night. Since, I’m sitting about 20% CAD, 15% USD, 40% land/re, 10% gic, 10% equip/fuel, 5% receivables, LOC empty, $500 on credit, and next season’s crop in storage. I’m thinking about ditching more USD when normalcy allows some of the recent stimuli back into the marketplace. Probably start playing with tfsa again in August. Meanwhile, farm life. Lots of prep. Shouts out to anyone in the Cariboo—trim that brush, fire season in two months!

***********

You mean you saw this coming, not the black swan event but the slowdown that was proceeding it? No…only the experts could see that!

Cisco Systems laid off tech employees back in Feb and it wasn’t due to the virus? I take it they thought it was an electronic virus and just made a mistake and will rehire after dust settles.

Economic foundation – already unstable due to debt, trade war, slowing consumer sentiment etc. Patient not exactly healthy.

Then comes along a health scare and an oil price war.

Anyone watching the credit market or list of companies laying off. Not all are virus affected. As Garth stated, don’t expect Banks to keep branches open after this is all said and done.

As it sounds, not many businesses have the ability to ride this out longer then a couple of weeks. The US and Canada govs are taking a little too much time in their delivery.

The US is behind closed doors deliberating, no doubt to generate positive momentum for a market bump (futures market). Much like trying to jump start an engine. Yes, I know they have, but why is it taking soo long to give money to mainstreet?

Canada needs to up the anti a bit according to the Canadian Business Council/Foundation and follow the UK 75-80% percent paid salaries.

The real problem will be trying to get that momentum back in all places of the economy. But we are just focusing on a virus as the root cause?

Hopefully, people and not robots will be making more products in the US and Canada as we see the impact on supply chains. The pendulum always seems to swing too far in either direction when human nature is involved. This event just exposed global supply chain weaknesses.

Have things changed or do we expect to go back to the normal in May/June?

China just reported a few more cases that were not imported (or exported and re-imported).

On the Oil Price War, Putin isn’t blinking, gave the middle finger. How long can the Saudi’s hold out with a lack of economic diversity?

Thousands being laid off in the Shale Oil industry, companies going under. Will Putin give in at this point? The oil war has just been with us for a couple of weeks.

#241 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 1:30 pm

#233 Jimers on 03.22.20 at 11:45 am

BIL told me a PAL is now only required to transport long arms since the Conservatives abolished the Long Arm Registry. That you can have say a shotgun at home without a PAL. Can anyone confirm or deny that?

——————————

Having a shotgun at home counts as possession. A license is required.

Long guns no longer need to be registered, true, but a license is still needed to possess them. A shotgun is a long gun, because it’s like, long. A pistol is short.

#242 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 1:33 pm

How long did it take from Just a flu to discussing firearms?
And the stores are still stocked, no military enforced movement restrictions yet.

#243 Jesse Livermore on 03.22.20 at 1:35 pm

#213 Doug Rowat on 03.22.20 at 9:12 am
#188 SoggyShorts on 03.21.20 at 11:48 pm
#97 Jesse Livermore on 03.21.20 at 5:03 pm
#57 technical analysis on 03.21.20 at 2:35 pm

The biggest reason amateurs go broke in the markets or in gambling is that they let their losses run and not their winnings. The rule is to cut your losses and let your profits run. It is the iron clad rule of investing.
********

Can you clarify this a little please?
It sounds like buying high and selling low.

Is it “you have to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em”?

RIP Kenny.

–Doug
_________________________________________

You got it Doug!! And yes, RIP Kenny.

#244 Curious George on 03.22.20 at 1:38 pm

#237 Richmond will be under water by 2014 on 03.22.20 at 12:31 pm

Thanks for the update and warning!

#245 Mississauga Mel on 03.22.20 at 1:42 pm

#177 akashic record on 03.21.20 at 10:22 pm
#138 CJohnC on 03.21.20 at 7:18 pm

Costco Today.
No T/P
No Eggs.
No canned goods, (soup, meats,etc)
No salads.
Almost no meat.
No butter.

Try Loblaws. Went this morning. Fully stocked on everthing except TP. Minimal lineups. Very orderly. Long live Canada!

#246 BS on 03.22.20 at 1:46 pm

#206 conan on 03.22.20 at 8:04 am
I mean you can’t get more delusional than that.-BS

It’s a record of fact that Trump fiddled while the Corona raged. Like I said before, days really count.

You can deny that all you want….. because in reality, its the people who support Trump that are delusional.

The market meltdown will hurt Trump in the election.
His delay and denial on Corona will hurt him even more.

Those are two very factual statements. Not some ramblings of a delusional Democrat, who thinks Trump is the worst thing to ever happen to America. Which , by the way, is also a fact…..

Up those meds. The facts are not on your side again. Trump was the one who acted first in the world to ban flights from China. Remember he was being called a racist by the media and Biden when he did and then criticized again when he was first to ban flights from Europe.

“Coronavirus will give Trump a second term”

https://spectator.us/coronavirus-give-trump-second-term/

#247 bill hilly on 03.22.20 at 1:50 pm

@#208 Dolce Vita on 03.22.20 at 8:23 am
___________________________________

sure.
whatever makes you feel better.
stay safe fella.

#248 DON on 03.22.20 at 1:58 pm

WSJ

The Journal

https://pca.st/549l8kkp

Coronavirus Layoffs Have Begun.

#249 the Jaguar on 03.22.20 at 1:58 pm

@#240 DON on 03.22.20 at 1:26 pm

Putin will never ‘blink’. He’s a very strong, principled, and experienced leader. He is also Russian. Russians have ice running through their veins if not vodka.
Cultures can be ‘ranked’ on a nation basis for certain traits. Russians wrote the book on Bad Ass. Right behind them are the Norwegians. Never, ever mess with Vikings. That is also why Scottish people are resilient and smarter than average people. Most have a lot of Norwegian blood running through their veins.

#250 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 2:30 pm

The out-of-box view about this health crisis on YouTube by Dr. Thomas Cowan: Virus et electrification de la Terre

Viruses are pieces of DNA or RNA with a few other proteins. They happen, when a cell is poisoned.

If someone ask a famous dolphin doctor why suddenly all the dolphins are dying, would he suspect a virus that is contagious and spreads among the dolphins or would he rather suspect that someone poisoned the water where they live?

That’s what happens here: the cells gets poisoned, they try to purify themselves by excreting themselves, what we call viruses.

In every pandemic in the past 150 years there was a quantum leap in the electrification of the Earth.

Whenever you introduce a new electrical field to a biological system, you poison it. You kill some, the rest goes into some kind of animated suspension, they live on, but sicker.

Some examples:
– Introduction of radio waves around the world: 1918 Spanish flu.
– 1968 Hong Kong flue when satellites were introduced

In the past 6 months there has been a quantum leap in electrification of the Earth with the introduction of 5G. These systems, including the existing cell phones, also function as water destructuring devices. For those who say we are just physical matter, not electrical beings, then don’t bother doing an EKG or EEG or nerve conduction test. We are electrical beings the chemicals are only byproducts of the electrical impulses.

The first city in the world, fully blanketed with 5G was Wuhan.

The sensibility depends on how much metal do you have in your body and the quality of water in your cells. Metal is a receptor for absorbing increased electric magnetic fields.

#251 Dennis R Ecclestone on 03.22.20 at 2:32 pm

#111 Dogman01 on 03.21.20 at 5:43 pm
#66 Toronto_CA on 03.21.20 at 3:01 pm

hedged-ETFs for investments rather than non-hedged?
———————————————————-
Same question, VGG has worked but is it now time for VGH.

————————————-

An excellent point. With the recent spike in USDCAD, it’s probably a good time to switch to ETFs which are CAD hedged.

#252 not 1st on 03.22.20 at 2:38 pm

Hope Garth sees this before his Sunday post. Might change his take on things. NYC ordered just about a million doses of the drugs Trump talked about.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241765092158517248

#253 I want to ride my bike on 03.22.20 at 2:42 pm

#233 Jimers on 03.22.20 at 11:45 am

BIL told me a PAL is now only required to transport long arms since the Conservatives abolished the Long Arm Registry. That you can have say a shotgun at home without a PAL. Can anyone confirm or deny that?

Check the site below under “Unauthorized possession of a firearm, section 91”

https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-46/page-21.html

Possessing a firearm for which you have no licence could land you up to 5 years in prison. It states that you are given a ‘reasonable’ amount of time to surrender the firearm for disposal, or acquire the proper licence for possession after aquiring the firearm.
Not something to mess around with.

#254 DON on 03.22.20 at 2:43 pm

Garth:

Air BNB host going off at AIR BNB – He is articulate and really mad. But his argument is well…buyer beware.

https://twitter.com/TheSoulCab/status/1241599878402203649

#255 DON on 03.22.20 at 2:57 pm

#249 the Jaguar on 03.22.20 at 1:58 pm

@#240 DON on 03.22.20 at 1:26 pm

Putin will never ‘blink’. He’s a very strong, principled, and experienced leader. He is also Russian. Russians have ice running through their veins if not vodka.
Cultures can be ‘ranked’ on a nation basis for certain traits. Russians wrote the book on Bad Ass. Right behind them are the Norwegians. Never, ever mess with Vikings. That is also why Scottish people are resilient and smarter than average people. Most have a lot of Norwegian blood running through their veins.
*************

I agree…Putin was preparing for this.

#256 Phylis on 03.22.20 at 3:04 pm

#239 Sail Away on 03.22.20 at 1:11 pm guessing, Is it something like elon did with his model selection?

#257 Lost...but not leased on 03.22.20 at 3:04 pm

#250 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 2:30 pm
The out-of-box view about this health crisis on YouTube by Dr. Thomas Cowan: Virus et electrification de la Terre

etc.

=================================

Yes…saw the same video.

……….but folks lets C—-A——–L———–M down.

I’ve read up on 5G…..numerous articles and videos warning of the health effects.

Please research Polio
…..SALK “polio vaccine” came about when Polio was 95% eradicated. Polio came about via man- made toxic environmental impact(such as DDT) which were suppressing natural immunity which previously stopped Polio which is present naturally. Salk vaccine took credit for what was really natures’ balance restored.

WUHAN?
…yes it appears it was one of THE first 5G rollouts in China. It also had one of THE worst air qualities in China…as well as citizens protesting.
So….coronavirus is convenient scapegoat /masking agent for other agendas.

So..Gov’t clampdown in China somehow translates into pandemic…HUH???

I will soon post Jon Rappaport article, (he is one of the top investigative reporters on health/medical issues) who exposes what is really going on and should put any/all pandemic fears to rest.

#258 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 3:47 pm

Merkel gets shot on Friday – turns out the doctor administering it infected. She is in isolation now.
Hollywood could not make this s…cript up…

#259 akashic record on 03.22.20 at 3:59 pm

#256 Lost…but not leased

The argument is interesting because it is not built on Wuhan and any possible related contemporary interests.

Tt looks at Wuhan just as the most recent example of a more than hundred years old trend – free of any surrounding trendy political, economic agenda.

It is impossible to argue that we are not fundamentally electric system on top of the biological/chemical layer.
The argument is that current Western medicine is operating by enlarge on the biological/chemical level, not very sophisticated about the electric, further more energy level, where everything boils down.

#260 Barb on 03.22.20 at 4:07 pm

#249 The Jaguar

“…Never, ever mess with Vikings. That is also why Scottish people are resilient and smarter than average people.”

———————–
H is a Scot. Says the family is all shipwrecked Norwegians.
We don’t own a boat.