Ch-ch-ch-changes

The CIBC branch down the street was closed this morning. Just like that. How long? “Until further Notice” the sign said.

A block away the teller at the Royal was definitely not herself. I chatted for 90 seconds, doing reconnaissance, and she used hand sanitizer three times during the convo. I felt swarthy and heathen (more than usual). In any case, RBC is open for a few hours tomorrow, then shut. How long? “No idea,” she said, squirting.

The green guys were working. Bank was full as I withdrew some just-in-case cash (the Bank of Canada boss scolded retailers this week for not accepting real money). How long will you stay open, I asked? “Hopefully as normal,” the manager said. “But who knows?”

All the banks have closed branches this week. A ton of them, in every city. Hundreds, literally, in Toronto. Dozens in Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal and Vancouver. Lots of TDs in Halifax alone.

And here’s a prediction: many of them will never reopen. What a wonderful opportunity Mr. Virus has presented to the banks to shutter expensive pieces of real estate staffed by costly humans. Life is so much more efficient and profitable when people embrace online banking – even if they’re forced to by closed doors.

The point? Simple. We’re not going back to same old, same old when this thing is done in a few weeks or months or a year. By forcing the economy to commit suicide as we react to this ugly version of the flu, we’re also hastening structural change. Fewer physical banks will be a big manifestation of that. Reduced cities with regularly scheduled airline service. Way less people working in office towers. Or going to a central location anywhere. The beginning of the end of the open concept office environment, which those sharing-economy, collaborative moisters so love.

More change…

No revived cruise industry, now that we’ve seen giant, glistening white germ factories that nobody wanted to let moor. Maybe the open borders in the EU, now closing, won’t be opening again in the same way. Hotels and tourist destinations will be crippled for years. Airbnb is being decimated, likely resulting in a surge in the rental vacancy rate in Toronto and YVR.

Condos? Yikes. Covid has demonstrated that living in a few hundred square feet with no outside space, connected to the earth by an airless box stuffed with other people of questionable hygiene is, well, the definition of risk. Forget social distancing with common hallways, foyers, garbage rooms, mail rooms and, yes, elevators full of sticky buttons.

And then there’s government.

Months before the coronavirus came there was a robust populist movement in many western countries for less bureaucracy and regulation, more direct democracy, freer enterprise, reduced governance and personal independence. Well, kiss that goodbye. When things got rough, the tough guys folded.

Now we have a massive intervention of government into everyday lives. Public spending has ramped up as never before. Canadians are waiting for Ottawa to send them money for rent and groceries. Child care cheques are being fattened. Stranded vacationers are moaning that the government should come and retrieve them. People idled through no fault of their own see governments at all levels as their financial saviours.

You know why. Savings are pathetic. Debt is epic. The real estate fetish created a mountain of mortgages. Legions of people have lived on credit, beyond their means, with paycheques that barely cover the monthly nut. So when a shock like this comes along, they turn to government. And politicians are happy to oblige – since they’re doling out other people’s money.

What comes out of this? More pressure for a universal basic income. And if you think government can actually reduce the size of the cheques soon to be sent out to families, think again. Public benefits never go down. Only up. Like taxes. And that will be a growing part of our future, too.

Well, let’s end this post with good news.

Guess how many new cases of infection there were in China on Thursday? Zero. In a nation of 1.4 billion people. Looks like they beat this little bugger to death.

And oil? It rallied by more than 20%. The largest daily gain ever, as investors woke up. The world still runs on this stuff, yet there was talk of crude prices going negative. Utterly silly. We’ve lost our minds.

Finally, I heard from Tracy today. She reminded me of why I come here every day to do this.

I’ve written a couple times in the past. Two years ago you gave me some fantastic advice when my husband left me. I followed it. I read your blog everyday. And as a result I successfully moved from a married stay-at-home mom to a divorced mom with a full-time job. I left the matrimonial home. I live small. I worked two jobs last year. I saved lots.  I have landed on my feet.

And now I’m the midst of this chaos I have no clue what the next six months holds. I might be laid off in April; work is slow.  But it felt so good to tell the kids tonight – and to believe it – that regardless what happens we will be ok. I am debt free.  I have two months of income sitting in my HIS. Like everyone else my investments have plummeted but I still have a healthy amount left if I need to dip into them. But we’re not spending any money so I don’t think I’ll need to do any dipping for another 4 months. Yes, this might screw up my retirement plans, but being a SAHM for a decade did a number on that already. No regrets though.

Thank you Garth. I am forever grateful.

By the way, carrots and potatoes back in the store today. Toilet paper, too. Spring on Friday.

 

317 comments ↓

#1 Lost...but not leased on 03.19.20 at 3:56 pm

“FLEXNER REPORT”

https://www.winterwatch.net/2019/08/the-foundations-fund-the-hack-abraham-flexner-to-standardize-medicine/

#2 TurnerNation on 03.19.20 at 4:00 pm

Part of “Phase 3” of this global rollout in my opinion…
Bank of Canada has already developed a new, digital Currency.
Why? Would they shelve it or roll it out?
At that point any assets you hold would be near worthless anyway.
We are run by bankers. Dependent upon the state. My GUESS is Into 2021 this must be in place.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/bank-of-canada-to-create-its-own-digital-currency-as-contingency-deputy-says-1.4826966

#3 Emile on 03.19.20 at 4:01 pm

> Savings are pathetic. Debt is epic.

This. Completely agree.

#4 Marco on 03.19.20 at 4:01 pm

Savings are pathetic. Debt is epic.
Put this in the charter. It’so good.

#5 Lost...but not leased on 03.19.20 at 4:04 pm

More change…

No revived cruise industry, now that we’ve seen giant, glistening white germ factories that nobody wanted to let moor. Maybe the open borders in the EU, now closing, won’t be opening again in the same way. Hotels and tourist destinations will be crippled for years. Airbnb is being decimated, likely resulting in a surge in the rental vacancy rate in Toronto and YVR.

=========================

Tourism is apparently 70% of Victoria, BC economy…and of course big elsewhere…

Re: Cruises….this will be decimated….the “risk” via close quarters will imbed in peoples’ psyche.

No tears shed for AirBnb,….yet who woulda predicted ???

#6 BlogDog123 on 03.19.20 at 4:05 pm

The folks at the bottom incomes don’t have the luxury of working from home via Citrix / Skype and still receive paycheques every two weeks.

They get a small federal handout and EI to make ends meet. For how long, who knows, and with no safety cushion of cash to spend on the eventual market uptake.

Think about them folks when considering your donations this year. Food banks prefer cash, not cans that have many COVID fingerprints on them.

#7 JohnAB on 03.19.20 at 4:05 pm

My thoughts on GTA housing prices. I don’t own a house, but here are the causes I think will keep the prices where they are, and in the near future will pump up the prices even higher. Would like some objective replies.

Quantitative Easing.
After the Global Financial Crisis speculative assets like stocks, bonds housing went parabolic creating a wealth effect that has kept the global economy stable ever since. Here we have another QE that’s even worse: governments want to pump money from the central bank directly into the wallets of consumers instead of banks. Defaulting on debt is unfavorable since it brings deflation, so we have to keep the debt up. How we do that easiest of all? Mortgages and consumer debt. Just open housesigma.com and zoom on the map to a neighborhood, see the prices of houses in 2005, 2010, 2015 and now. Can you spot the inflation (doubling of prices since 2010)?

Moisters and FOMO
Everybody wants its own house to live in. More those who don’t own one and are seeing how prices go up faster than they can save for a 20% down payment. Add here the realtors with buy-now-or-buy-never, the shows on the TV how the happy owners are renovating their homes, the mom-and-dad that push you to buy now and you’ll have a freshly backed moister with FOMO out-of-the-box.

Easy debt creation
Not much to say, just the fact that now you can get a million-dollar mortgage from a mortgage advisor by simply going to Starbucks with him/her and sign the docs there… And that the banks don’t require to create credit from savings anymore.

Limited supply + increased immigration
How many houses are built and how many people settle in the biggest Canadian city each year? Wait until the big tech corps will get here with new shiny offices and huge IT wages. I was interviewing for Amazon here, told them I want 160k, they said ok. That’s for Intermediate Software Engineer position. Usually you get 120-130k on avg for a senior engineer position at other companies.

“Houses always go up!”
What people see they can get with RE is: less volatility; and (worst case scenario) with 5% (let’s say 50K) if you get 5% increase per year over the long run on your house price, minus the debt servicing you’ll make at least about 25-30k a year, that’s at least 50%; and you own something you can touch; and you get a place to live. I’m not saying they are right, but these “facts” play a big role in decision making. Put here the fact that you don’t pay taxes on the sale of your primary residence.

Financial illiteracy
Recently was speaking to a friend that said “RRSP is a fraud”. What he did is invest in a mutual fund that was sold with passion by the “financial advisor” at one of the banks, was paying 2% in fees over the years and was seeing his numbers go down while market meltdown these days. I explained him how he can invest by using the Robo Advisors and pay 0.25% in fees, and get a balanced portfolio by having his money automatically invested in ETFs. I didn’t even get in the details on how RRSP can lower his tax bracket or anything like that. How do you want people to invest in anything else if they don’t know the instruments they have? And when they try investing, they get into mutual funds that squeeze all the profits out of them? Of course they will get into houses.

RE is too big to let it fail
RE industry (that doesn’t produce anything) is too big to let it fail. Too many jobs depend on it. Even worse, some who work in construction started setting such high prices on their services that is cheaper to do it by yourself on the weekends. Recently a friend who said he wants to remove the popcorn ceiling, the builder asked for 10k payment for ~2000 sq feet. The builders get more expensive. Here also go the realtors with them exaggerate fees… A little more time and they can have their own political party “Houses for everyone” and not have to do any lobbying.

Keep the 70% of population happy
Ownership rate is too high. Any political party wants to be in power for as long as possible. Sorry, but I don’t believe in honest politicians. They do what they have to do to get votes, even if this hurts growth and economic development.

Mortgages keeps the unemployment low
People should be scared. They should be working and keep paying their mortgages. A person with a mortgage is more interested in keeping his job than one without.

Overall, the facts mentioned above will never allow real estate to go down, at least for a lot and for a long time. No government wants to see lots of defaults and a complete mess on their watch. The sad thing is that the savers are completely screwed. Money don’t mean anything anymore. Why would you keep money if they can print them faster than you can make them? Staying invested in such times like now is also hard for a lot of folks. You look how today you made -4000$ and you think how much time you have to work to get it back. Hormones take over. You sell. Most people go by the flow and the government supports it. This is what everybody needs to know when making any financial decisions.

#8 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 4:14 pm

@ Sail away on 03.19.20 at 3:55 pm
#281 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 3:27 pm

The difference between you and I, is that I care about people who I don’t know and who are not related to me, as well as future generations.

———————-

That’s nice. Sort of like God.
—————————–

Whatever dude.

I didn’t expect you to get it. You can’t — it’s not in your nature…shrug.

#9 Alberta Ed on 03.19.20 at 4:14 pm

Actually, Spring arrived today, the earliest in 124 years! Along with a finch; Trumpeter Swans should be moving through any day now. The Harley is poised and polished for whenever the roads, which now resemble the Bering Strait, reappear.

#10 Brian Ripley on 03.19.20 at 4:15 pm

My employment rate chart is updated with FEB data http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Rate

Highlight from StatCan:

“In February, there were more people working in wholesale and retail trade, in manufacturing, as well as in information, culture and recreation. At the same time, employment declined in professional, scientific and technical services and in accommodation and food services.

My niece works at VGH (Vancouver General Hospital) and says the Covid-19 problem is much worse than what is being reported and that middle aged people are at the same risk as older people.

We are a nation of service employees, get ready for unemployment rates rising and a period of debt revulsion.

#11 KM on 03.19.20 at 4:16 pm

Oh Garth, spring today. Earliest in 124 years. I don’t blame you for missing it though.

https://interestingengineering.com/first-day-of-spring-starts-thursday-the-earliest-its-been-in-124-years

#12 Danforth on 03.19.20 at 4:18 pm

Since the picture of the day is the Charmin truck getting a police escort, here is a handy dandy calculator to help understand how you will weather the quarantine:

https://howmuchtoiletpaper.com/

Be sure to hit the ‘Advanced Options’ button for more sophisticated calculation…

Be safe, everyone!

Stay home, and when you go on a food run, don’t touch anything you don’t have to!

#13 FreeBird on 03.19.20 at 4:22 pm

Much respect to Tracy. Great role model for her kids. She’s a survivor. Take good care of you’re kid’s mom…oxygen mask on you first.

#14 TMAVZA on 03.19.20 at 4:23 pm

Best post you’ve written in a while. In my humble opinion.

#15 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 4:28 pm

#8 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 4:14 pm
@ Sail away on 03.19.20 at 3:55 pm
#281 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 3:27 pm

The difference between you and I, is that I care about people who I don’t know and who are not related to me, as well as future generations.

——————–

That’s nice. Sort of like God.

——————–

Whatever dude.
I didn’t expect you to get it. You can’t — it’s not in your nature…shrug.

——————–

I just sent a burnt offering as a token of peace. It’s your favourite.

#16 Last Chance on 03.19.20 at 4:29 pm

Part of “Phase 3” of this global rollout in my opinion…
Bank of Canada has already developed a new, digital Currency.
Why? Would they shelve it or roll it out?
At that point any assets you hold would be near worthless anyway.
We are run by bankers. Dependent upon the state. My GUESS is Into 2021 this must be in place.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/bank-of-canada-to-create-its-own-digital-currency-as-contingency-deputy-says-1.4826966

Dude, the government messed up the gas can (Ventless).. Imagine what they can do to a digital currency.. Hows Pheonix payroll going? 10 years and they still can’t pay anyone? ROTFL, this will be good.

#17 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 4:33 pm

Traceys ex husband might not look so bad compared to whats coming down the pike. A lot has changed in 2 yrs Tracey, economic security is paramount, risk is out and being a single mom probably with a transient job is very unsteady place to be.

I predict a rise in marriage, cohabitation in SFH and a lot of income sharing.

#18 jess on 03.19.20 at 4:34 pm

maybe in times like these the kings had debt jubilees ;)
=========================

…”It would be better to have an automatic tax-filing and return system so Canadians could receive their refunds and benefits automatically without having to prepare tax returns themselves, as Canadians for Tax Fairness—and others—have advocated for

…”the US Federal Reserve struck a deal with five other foreign central banks — the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank — to lower their rates on currency swaps,

Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility and will purchase “unsecured and secured commercial paper” from money market funds,

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/03/wall-streets-crisis-began-four-months-before-the-first-reported-death-from-coronavirus-in-china-heres-the-proof/

#19 Harold on 03.19.20 at 4:34 pm

Invested 70k of money in February, just to watch it all crater. I am in it for the long haul I guess. What are others thinking? Got nothing left to put into any cheap stocks either.

#20 Ron on 03.19.20 at 4:35 pm

Good luck believing everything the communist Chinese government say. Hopefully that is not your only source of data.

#21 Keyboard Smasher on 03.19.20 at 4:35 pm

But oil will recover back into the $70s…. r-r-r-ight?

I loaded up on CNQ at these prices. I want a 200% pay off.

#22 IHCTD9 on 03.19.20 at 4:35 pm

I’ve always understood the bare minimum is prudent when it comes to being prepared for some kind of SHTF situation. I never bothered because I just didn’t think something that terrible would ever happen on my watch.

Now I see all it takes is a relatively benign event in combination with the www. to provoke a sizable slice of the Citizenry to go nutz and start throwing down over TP and parking spots.

From here on in, some of the more sane Prepper doctrines are going to make sense to a lot of people. We’ve all seen a stash of TP may be a good idea, some cash, disinfectant and basic medical supplies. I’m going to think about it some more.

#23 RG on 03.19.20 at 4:36 pm

Worst:
With services companies making every one working from home and realizing it works “well” (at least at mine where +90% of the workforce works as business as usual with nowadays technologies), white collars are pooched as well with – and I put one dollar on this – future relocation to lower wages countries.

#24 Post on 03.19.20 at 4:37 pm

Actually spring came today. Earliest spring in over a hundred years.

https://www.space.com/vernal-equinox-2020-earliest-spring-124-years.html

#25 Toronto_CA on 03.19.20 at 4:38 pm

I was imagining a few things today once we are “Post Pandemic”.

1) my wedding was cancelled, and I am getting a full refund for the costs of about $50k CAD that I had already written off.

2) I can’t spend any money since I’m sequestered, nor book any holidays, so…I will be banking a lot of take home pay in the next two-three months.

3) my boss is using this as an excuse to get rid of my rival at work that I was brought in to replace anyway, which means I will hopefully be getting a promotion sooner than expected.

4) I was going to buy a house in London UK towards the end of the year, and now it looks like prices will take a nose dive while we suffer a pandemic recession.

5) I’ve sank my free cash into dividend paying oil stocks that are trading at almost all time lows, that are likely to recover bigly in the recovery.

If all that comes to be, I will have greatly benefited from this pandemic..in a few years time, much better off because of it (financially speaking).

That’s sort of horrible, especially given the unemployment rates will skyrocket and many people will lose jobs and homes because of this awful virus.

(Side bar: I hope Airbnb goes the way of the dodo bird. Put that back in the rental market or housing stock. Don’t let the government bail out these wanna be hotel owners.)

#26 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 4:38 pm

This all sounds like the economic version of the movie the purge. Just take a day every once in a while and carve the rot out of the system, torpedo some businesses, fire a bunch of staff, reset the yield curve, monetize some debt and then carry on for another decade.

#27 Wait There on 03.19.20 at 4:42 pm

” The Pendulum Swings”

#28 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 4:45 pm

Now that the service and tourism sector is about to implode Canada sure is lucky it can now rely on those dirty resource jobs and projects.

Oh wait….we cancelled them all in the name of climate change that was going to kill us too.

Garth didn’t come out and say it directly but he will some day. Globalization just died.

#29 phil on 03.19.20 at 4:50 pm

DELETED

#30 Trumpocalypse2020 on 03.19.20 at 4:52 pm

Mr Turner, you are sounding a bit Apocalyptic.

Did you catch it from me?

#31 neo on 03.19.20 at 4:52 pm

#7 JohnAB on 03.19.20 at 4:05 pm

Just because you have a lot to say doesn’t mean you know what you are talking about.

Your post is a classic example of that.

#32 FreeBird on 03.19.20 at 4:53 pm

#10 Brian Ripley on 03.19.20 at 4:15 pm

Agreed. COVID testing in Ont is too restricted to accurately rep actual cases. Can’t DX without a test. In Peterborough only symptomatic return travelers from risky areas qualify. All else even if sick with symptoms no test incl front line care staff coming back from risky areas unless symptomatic/ill (no test). COVID mostly transfered by air droplets which linger for 3 hrs. I’m sure the flu vaccine will be avail this fall free (using our money.) Enough for all. Last yr some hospitals gave a free chocolate bar for getting jabbed.

#33 Attrition on 03.19.20 at 4:53 pm

Sounds like it’s time to crack a Corona, then.

#34 BC_Doc on 03.19.20 at 4:53 pm

But before the banks permanently shutter branches and lay-off workers, they will ask for and likely receive bailout money

#35 Unemployment on 03.19.20 at 4:55 pm

I was one person who up until this week had a very positive outlook at how quickly things would recover and how quickly this would blow over and things would return to normal.
I own my own business and in January I was looking to add to my full time staff but could not find any qualified applicants. Today I laid off 7 full time employees. I kept my top 3 employees who I can not afford to lose.
I went from a profitable growing business to a 70% cut in Revenue overnight.
Instead of a profitable established business I am now burning savings to stay a float. This happened overnight with little in the way of warning.
Luckily I have savings and didn’t over extend. I feel like I can float this for 6 months but I know do not see the same amount of revenue coming back for at min 3-5 years.

Most of the staff I laid off have no savings. They are now finically devastated. I had no choice but to do lay them off. I can’t float 7 more salaries for months. Friends that own business have done the same. Lay offs everywhere. North America’s Unemployment rate went from a 5% to probably 30-40% overnight and it will last for months.

This will take years to recover from. If not a decade or more. When the virus is gone unemployment will remain in the 15-20% range. Most people have absolutely no reserve for anything close to this. Most business have capacity to deal with a market slow down but this is a full stop over night. Small business owners are going to get absolutely crushed. Small business owners are the ones who pay a lot of the government employees salary’s. They are all off with pay right now. Well we go broke. Tax revenues will be a fraction of what they were last year. My HST payment will now be 70% less.

I am glad I am a prudent saver but if my business remains at 70% lost revenue per month for more then 6 months I will have no choice but to close up shop save the resources I have left and try again in the future.

#36 Ron Jeremy on 03.19.20 at 5:04 pm

“How long? “No idea,” she said, squirting.”

You’re a man after my own heart Garth…

#37 Jim on 03.19.20 at 5:05 pm

Oil is back up at $30bbl!

Brent 28.1900 3.31 13.30 %

#38 jess on 03.19.20 at 5:07 pm

On Thursday, the US State Department issued a blanket “Level 4” travel advisory — its highest warning — covering all international travel.

#39 John Baptist on 03.19.20 at 5:07 pm

#8 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 4:14 pm
@ Sail away on 03.19.20 at 3:55 pm
#281 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 3:27 pm

“The difference between you and I, is that I care about people who I don’t know and who are not related to me, as well as future generations.

That’s nice. Sort of like God.”

You really think we have evidence of a God who gives a rat’s bubonic ass about humanity now or in the past??

#40 Blog Bunny on 03.19.20 at 5:09 pm

Who would have known… the toilet paper, the most sought after item by survivalists during the zombie apocalypse. I would have stocked up on water, canned food and vitamins, but hey I do not shit gold after all.

#41 Dave on 03.19.20 at 5:13 pm

Will people no longer pay $1M for crack shacks…will house prices have a new normal?

Or back to high prices in the fall?

#42 Sold Out on 03.19.20 at 5:15 pm

I, for one, heartily endorse the complete lack of regard some commenters here display towards the medical/scientific establishment.

Of course, my endorsement is contingent upon your continued refusal to partake in any of the global benefits of scientific advancement. No digital media, no ICE or EV, no TV, no medical care beyond leaches and amputations, no refrigeration for food, no anti-biotics, you get the idea.

You may have a radio, but it should have tubes for that ring of authenticity.

What’s that you say? Only SJWs and pipeline protestors should have to abide by those types of blanket restrictions? Perhaps the Stoic science deniers would grace us with a demonstration of what true intellectual conviction looks like.

Oh, by the way, you should also limit your petroleum use to that which can be taken internally, or applied as a poultice.

Science is frequently inconvenient, but it’s still the best we have.

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.19.20 at 5:16 pm

I popped down to Lunenburg today before lunch.
Everything was closed except the town hall and Subway.
It was like a ghost town, big difference from last August for sure.

I drove back up the coast to Chester, same thing…deads-ville.
Went to downtown Halifax by about 1:30pm. busy busy busy, joggers at Point Pleasant Park, lots of peeps on Spring Garden rd walking about…. back over to Dartmouth to visit some friends.
Everyone seems pretty relaxed about the whole thing.

#44 Howard on 03.19.20 at 5:16 pm

The beginning of the end of the open concept office environment, which those sharing-economy, collaborative moisters so love.

————————————

Oh god yes!! PLEASE let this be the end of open space offices.

Contrary to popular belief, you’re far more likely to meet a young person who DESPISES open offices and considers them yet another torture device by Boomers forced onto young people. Really it’s about extroverts versus introverts. Increasingly, and certainly after this coming recession concludes in a couple years, if companies want to retain introverted employees (who are nearly always the most productive and creative in any department), they’re going to have to start offering alternative workplace arrangements.

Now there’s two reasons to cheer the coronavirus:
– AirBnB landlords forced into bankruptcy
– RIP open space office

#45 UsuaryGreed on 03.19.20 at 5:20 pm

If our government really wants to help people impacted by Covid-19, they should do something about credit card interest rates. Most people facing layoffs will need credit cards short term to survive and many are already carrying crippling credit card debt. The credit card companies are charging 19% interest at a time when the prime rate is almost zero. The word for this when the world is in crisis is usuary. And it will hit low income workers the hardest.

#46 MF on 03.19.20 at 5:21 pm

7 JohnAB on 03.19.20 at 4:05

Yeah sure. And who is going to be buying this overpriced garbage?

Lots of people would love a million dollar home. Few can afford it.

Covid changes everything. The script has changed. Real estate was the story from 2009-2020, but not anymore.

Oh yeah, and the government handouts will nothing.

MF

#47 UsuryGreed on 03.19.20 at 5:24 pm

Usury. I can’t spell as I’m so upset.

#48 TurnerNation on 03.19.20 at 5:24 pm

Here we go..this is the reason. Prepping phase 2.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/u-s-wants-smartphone-location-data-fight-coronavirus-privacy-advocates-n1162821?a=1

“Federal health officials say they could use anonymous, aggregated user data collected by the tech companies to map the spread of the virus — a practice known as “syndromic surveillance” — and prevent further infections. They could also use the data to see whether people were practicing “social distancing.””

#49 robK on 03.19.20 at 5:25 pm

we were destined for trouble after the American voters elected Mickey and Donald to run the free world…

#50 FreeBird on 03.19.20 at 5:25 pm

This was just sent to me. Wealthy are getting out of dodge:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/disease-dodging-worried-wealthy-jet-off-to-disaster-bunkers

#51 Howard on 03.19.20 at 5:26 pm

Speaking of oil/energy :

China Takes Axe To Alternative Energy Funding, Slashing Subsidies For Solar And Wind
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/china-takes-axe-alternative-energy-funding-slashing-subsidies-solar-and-wind

Go to hell Tides Foundation.

#52 Penny Henny on 03.19.20 at 5:27 pm

Covid has demonstrated that living in a few hundred square feet with no outside space, connected to the earth by an airless box stuffed with other people of questionable hygiene is, well, the definition of risk.

/////////////

Fartzy got mentioned!

#53 Wkg on 03.19.20 at 5:29 pm

The financial crisis of 08 created an investing rule for me, when I feel like puking, it is probably time to start buying, which I started doing at the end of last week. Yesterday I threw up twice and then bought some enbridge. Works for me, but it is not pleasant to experience. Also something I learned in 08, was to have some money invested in physical asset, and I don’t mean gold. Saskatchewan farmland fits the bill for me, wonderful investment, decent returns on grain land, and it will always be there. I would probably have thrown up three times yesterday if I didn’t have that in my back pocket

#54 Jesse Livermore on 03.19.20 at 5:31 pm

#19 Harold on 03.19.20 at 4:34 pm

“Invested 70k of money in February, just to watch it all crater. I am in it for the long haul I guess. What are others thinking? Got nothing left to put into any cheap stocks either.”

Mr. Market is a brutal teacher Harold. We have had a long expansionary period that was due for a correction even before the coranavirus ran amok. Rack it up to experience and learn from it. Reality is harsh…

#55 Penny Henny on 03.19.20 at 5:33 pm

Toilet paper on sale everywhere.

https://www.foodbasics.ca/flyer.en.html

https://www.nofrills.ca/print-flyer?navid=flyer-deal&navid=Flyer-and-Deals

https://freshco.com/flyer/

#56 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 5:33 pm

DELETED

#57 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 5:38 pm

#44 Howard on 03.19.20 at 5:16 pm

Oh god yes!! PLEASE let this be the end of open space offices.

…if companies want to retain introverted employees (who are nearly always the most productive and creative in any department)…

———————–

…says the introvert.

In any case, at this current moment in time, companies are none too concerned about their ability to retain workers.

If the workers intend to keep a job, they’ll probably work quietly in their cubicles.

#58 Pete on 03.19.20 at 5:38 pm

Amazing comment from reader Tracy. Gave me goosebumps! Keep on keeping on Tracy and best of luck. Moreover, congrats on the discipline you’ve employed to better yourself financially

#59 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.19.20 at 5:41 pm

This is the perfect time to reset everything. We can now make the Paris Accord targets and hope to save this planet.

Enjoy the ride.

#60 Trojan House on 03.19.20 at 5:42 pm

I tried to tell a colleague today, by Skype call of course since we’re all working from home, that what “they” did to the economy will be far worse than what the virus will pan out to. She didn’t get that plunging the world into a depression will make life a lot more difficult for those of us who survive this virus (probably most of us) than the other way around. In fact, a depression could kill a lot more people through various means, for example, like starvation if there food production has been seriously reduced.

She is a moister of course.

#61 JSS on 03.19.20 at 5:44 pm

I think oil’s gonna make a comeback, probably later in the year.

#62 Grunt on 03.19.20 at 5:44 pm

I’m concerned about an El Duce being pulled at Queen’s Park.

#63 Keith in Rio on 03.19.20 at 5:47 pm

Only idiots believe anything the communist government in Red China says.

#64 Deplorable Dude on 03.19.20 at 5:49 pm

#35 Unemployment

Yep agree…small businesses will be the biggest casualty in this slaughter. It wouldn’t surprise me if the number of businesses going under beats number of deaths on a global basis. A significant portion of the planet just lost their job.

Banks not reopening…same applies to restaurants, and god knows how many other businesses.

Some very depressing threads on Reddit right now on how folks/businesses are being affected.

Sorry Garth I know you are trying to be positive.

Have to wonder what the suicide rate will be in a few months. What toll is this taking on everyone’s mental health?

I wake up every morning….and about 2 seconds later I remember….of yeah….crap.

We’re living in a disaster movie and no one knows how this one ends.

#65 JohnAB on 03.19.20 at 5:52 pm

#31 neo on 03.19.20 at 4:52 pm

More context would help

#66 Abc123 wipeyobumforfree on 03.19.20 at 5:53 pm

In the issue of TP and overpaying for it…

A smooth rock can be found anywhere and is totally free.

Leave it out in the rain for reuse next time .

#67 Think I'll ... on 03.19.20 at 5:55 pm

put in a veggie garden again this year … may have to stand guard and not for the raccoons as usual …

#68 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 5:56 pm

Blackdog, I hope I haven’t triggered you into another insane 6-day stampede through all that’s logical and reasonable.

I take it back. You’re not God. You are something else entirely.

#69 JohnAB on 03.19.20 at 5:56 pm

#46 MF on 03.19.20 at 5:21 pm

That’s the thing. If the cash is 3% and debt is 97% of the total amount of money, wouldn’t increasing the amount of cash will inevitable increase the amount of debt?

#70 Doug t on 03.19.20 at 5:58 pm

In the immortal words of Spock

LIVE LONG AND PROSPER

#71 Off Duty on 03.19.20 at 6:06 pm

Always live slightly below your means and save a little for a rainy day. It was and always will be good advice!!

Paid off the 25 year mortgage on Jan 31 2020 in only 12 years. Feeling a little vindicated lately from folks that felt I was a fool for not shoving it all into the markets! Have enough in the market and have not had the courage to open the online account. Does feel good to not have to worry about making that payment every two weeks any more!

Looking forward to using the additional cash flow to nibble at some of the bargains in the market.

#72 theoryAndPractice on 03.19.20 at 6:10 pm

Welcome to cashless society (either don’t have it or can’t use it anyway. ) . Saw signs today in sotres cash is not accepted.

#73 TurnerNation on 03.19.20 at 6:10 pm

Is there anyone in the Ontario Education field here?
My guess what that the closed rural schools will not be reopened. That people must head to city.
Or is there an E-learning platform in the works? ?
Ontariowe is broke now would be their excuse to heave unionized teachers on strike.

#74 bob on 03.19.20 at 6:13 pm

With what you wrote Garth, do you still believe a quick recovery in the cards? When retail stores, airlines, cruise ships, bank store fronts close and don’t reopen, that’s a lot of job losses.

Who is going to hire all the newly unemployed?

Never said quick. But it will be intense. – Garth

#75 Noplused on 03.19.20 at 6:29 pm

Yikes!

I had to do some online banking today, so this was the first time I’d seen my mark to market in several weeks. Yikes! It’s off a good 20%. And this is a relatively well diversified portfolio. Even the bond and bank funds are printing red ink, which I don’t get. Hopefully it’ll look a bit better tomorrow because I think they mark it overnight. Of course I had to put the number in $ terms and that was not pleasant. Many years worth of after tax income just went “poof!” Oh well I guess what the market giveth the market can take away. But this isn’t how it was supposed to work. Hopefully the rebound will be just as epic and I don’t need the money for many years so I can wait. And my guess is that most everyone is in a similar situation unless you were smart enough to sell when the first cases were announced in China. I didn’t, because I didn’t understand we were facing an economic shutdown and these things have always passed before.

I suppose on the bright side, if we are all down 20% on our savings the money probably just got a lot more valuable. Deflation ahead if this continues. But it probably won’t.

However here is a question maybe someone can answer: My previously topped-up TFSA is now well below the contribution limit. When you experience losses on investments in a TFSA, can you top it back up again? I’m guessing the answer is “no” but I think it is an interesting question in these times.

No. – Garth

#76 MF on 03.19.20 at 6:32 pm

69 JohnAB on 03.19.20

That extra cash is puny for individuals. Will go towards food and rent.

It will be for people and businesses who are essentially on hold during this time.

Afterwards its back to living paycheque to paycheque.

MF

#77 Renter's Revenge! on 03.19.20 at 6:35 pm

How long? “No idea,” she said, squirting.

“Never said quick. But it will be intense.” – Garth

You’re on a roll today. Keep it up!

#78 Herb on 03.19.20 at 6:37 pm

Unaccustomed as I have become to agreeing with you, much less flattering you, I am linking to this post on my FB page.

Even Trudeau fils might become a personal hero, hinting at rescuing us retired peons from their balanced and diversified investment losses. (In a pig’s eye.)

#79 Curious George on 03.19.20 at 6:37 pm

Would some wise blog dog please refer me to some site or article that explains how China by initially denying they had a problem, allow the coronavirus to run amok in their country for who knows how long and now claim to have completely contained it. Wuhan has 11 million citizens, is in central China in a province with a population the size of Italy. Is it possible that the virus did not go to the rest of China while it was “not being recognized” when Hubei is the central hub of China and has almost 60 million citizens? How is this possible folks? How could the virus be going wild in other countries while the rest of China is doing ok? Please explain this to me o wise ones…

#80 Stone on 03.19.20 at 6:39 pm

#55 Penny Henny on 03.19.20 at 5:33 pm
Toilet paper on sale everywhere.

https://www.foodbasics.ca/flyer.en.html

https://www.nofrills.ca/print-flyer?navid=flyer-deal&navid=Flyer-and-Deals

https://freshco.com/flyer/

———

All for show after Shoppers Drug Mart got caught gouging customers on TP and other essentials. Everyone who has a PC Points card will know, dear Galen Weston sent out a few emails and one of them was to say they wouldn’t gouge. Yeah Galen. Sure. We believe you, you piece of s**t. Trust me buddy, we will not forget.

It’s great it’s on sale. Now, try to find some. If you can’t, will they give you a rain-cheque? I have my doubts.

#81 Pierre on 03.19.20 at 6:40 pm

Your optimism about the markets is totally misplace. Just tomorrow, for example, long-scheduled changes in derivatives markets will wreack further havoc. And there is more to come in synthetic derivatives next month. I would encourage everybody to think hard about whether you have the risk tolerance to stay invested in these high-volatility times. I, for one, sold my entire portfolio 30 days ago for US dollars. Safe, and the ROI in the past weeks has been amazing. Just my two cents.

#82 Shawn Allen on 03.19.20 at 6:41 pm

Less people living pay cheque to pay cheque

#76 MF on 03.19.20 at 6:32 pm said:

Afterwards its back to living paycheque to paycheque.

*******************************
Well, actually, there may be a LOT less people living pay cheque to pay cheque. But not for a good reason. Careful what we ask for.

#83 Nonplused on 03.19.20 at 6:42 pm

#9 Alberta Ed

We’ve had finches all winter. And chickadees. Hard to say how many but at least 24. But we also have a bird feeder. My wife dragged a “value sized” bag of feed out of Walmart after the toilet paper panic started and she says she got a lot of weird looks. Apparently people thought we were planning to eat it or something. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that but I suppose you could.

#84 JohnAB on 03.19.20 at 6:44 pm

#75 MF on 03.19.20 at 6:32 pm

Sorry, new to Canada (from 2013), but weren’t people living paycheck-to-paycheck before? Did they have, let’s say, a more balanced financial life? The amount of money I was talking is not the governmental help the people will get now, what I’m talking is the amount they will be able to borrow. I’ll give an example: went to greece this year, stayed in an Airbnb. The owner told me how the banks in 2006 were largely promoting the policy “take a loan and fix or build your house”. The guy took a loan to fix his old house. Because he had a stable work at the national telecom company, he was getting 2500 eur per month after tax + he was renting out a couple of apartments for 250 each. The loan that the bank could give him was an amount that required 2300 eur per month payment! I’m not kidding. This is not the first time I hear such things. So if a guy was making 3000 eur after tax (because not many were paying taxes there) was getting a mortgage that required monthly payments of 75% of his after tax income, how far can we go here? Btw same thing happens in Moscow for example. People overstretch. That’s why I think we still have some room until craps hits the fan.

#85 G on 03.19.20 at 6:46 pm

News isn’t all bad.
Might have some drugs that could help the very sick a bit.
Britain might have an antibody test soon. So you can tell who has been exposed after the fact and have developed natural immunity.

Ontario doing there best to keep on top of it still.
So far so good.
I give the health care people in Ontario a Gold star for working so hard. Canada too. I hope it keeps working, seems to be so far. Fingers crossed.

China CCP didn’t start out so well at all, and now even trying to blame the other guy. Give me a break!
Some things sound better now, but not sure what to make of them kicking out foreign/USA reporters???

Coronavirus outbreak: Ontario public health officials provide COVID-19 update | LIVE March 19 1hr4min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBOhIqrUqEo&t=2s

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 40: Ibuprofen and COVID-19 (are NSAIDs safe?), trials of HIV medications. MedCram March 19 17min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dT6mHi_8V5E

Dr. John Campbell
Thursday 19th March, Update March 19 26min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-0Es0RKiU4
Reducing fever, Part 2 March 19 31min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDijpnCOoFc

#86 Bill Puffle on 03.19.20 at 6:47 pm

Do you realize that you risk catching the virus going to the bank and the grocery store? You should be STAYING AT HOME! This isn’t a difficult concept to understand.

You don’t need cash. But if you do, get it from an ATM when no one is around. Do your banking online. You don’t need to be interacting with tellers and bank managers. You should have stocked up on food in February. If you didn’t, order groceries for delivery.

Going out in public and being around other people is how you catch the virus. The threat is real now. Everyone needs to be staying at home unless they are an essential worker.

#87 espressobob on 03.19.20 at 6:52 pm

Looking for a tee shirt with that round corona bug.

#88 spoon_man on 03.19.20 at 6:53 pm

The ironies of life: it took a virus to push the world (Trump included) to the brink of implementing Sander’s and AOC universal income (UI) proposals. It should be done. No better opportunity to test it in the field beyond academic discussions and partisan proposals and be done with the discussions. If negative rates had a shot why not UI? Exceptional times are ideal for experimentation. BTW, this is the perfect time as well to confirm prior contact with extraterrestrial beings…

#89 Sydneysider on 03.19.20 at 6:53 pm

For some light reading, I recommend the inquiry into the SARS shambles (“Spring of Fear”) in Ontario.

http://www.archives.gov.on.ca/en/e_records/sars/report/

I wonder how many of the recommendations were ever discussed at govt level.

http://www.archives.gov.on.ca/en/e_records/sars/report/v3-pdf/Vol3Chp9.pdf

#90 Timmy on 03.19.20 at 6:55 pm

should have listened to my dad

likely 3-4 yrs before get back to Feb highs ….geez. Live and learn

#91 Millennial Realist on 03.19.20 at 6:55 pm

I think the lag time to a recovery, perhaps 6-12 months, will accentuate the concerns of Boomers already planning to retire soon.

Expect to see CPP/OAS top-ups to help Boomers leave the workplace. This will accentuate the takeover of jobs by Millennials and Gen X/Y’ers. This will be to ameliorate RRSP losses incurred in the current market drop.

I have friends working in big corps and public sectors where the retirement projections this year, even before the virus, were close to 2% per month of the workforce, all of them Boomers planning their exits. A huge change is already underway demographically in the workforce, and the virus and its governmental remedies will heighten this. By 2024, Boomers will be mostly gone in terms of influence.

2021 will be a year of incredible social change, count on it.

#92 IHCTD9 on 03.19.20 at 6:57 pm

#19 Harold on 03.19.20 at 4:34 pm
Invested 70k of money in February, just to watch it all crater. I am in it for the long haul I guess. What are others thinking? Got nothing left to put into any cheap stocks either.
———

I’m getting slapped around like I just called Cassius Clay a *****. I got some dry powder, but no plans at this point. If you’re young, be glad for that and be happy to ride it out. Millions aren’t going to die from C-19, you’re just looking at the effects of too many lunatics running in the same direction – over a cliff.

I’m going to do what I’ve always done and roll with it – but this is the worst one since I started investing 21 years ago. We really don’t have much choice.

#93 Curious George on 03.19.20 at 6:57 pm

From the IPAC Canada website…

“On 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. The outbreak began in a seafood and poultry market in Wuhan, a city of 11 million in central China. Like SARS and MERS-CoV, the newly detected coronavirus has a zoonotic source, however, human to human transmission has been confirmed. The first human infections must have occurred in November 2019 or earlier.”

If the first human infections probably occurred in November 2019, how could the rest of China not be affected in massive amounts when the virus ran rampant for several months in a province that is in central China, saw millions of people travelling for Chinese New Year to other parts of China BEFORE the official lockdown of Wuhan. Nothing doesn’t add up here folks…

#94 Howard on 03.19.20 at 7:00 pm

#57 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 5:38 pm
#44 Howard on 03.19.20 at 5:16 pm

Oh god yes!! PLEASE let this be the end of open space offices.

…if companies want to retain introverted employees (who are nearly always the most productive and creative in any department)…

———————–

…says the introvert.

In any case, at this current moment in time, companies are none too concerned about their ability to retain workers.

————————————

Clearly. Which is why I stated “increasingly…after the recession concludes….”. For now and for the next few years it’s an employer’s market, you are correct there.

Long term, however, if this virus forces more and companies to offer flexible and remote work arrangements, the few holdouts that insist on retaining the open space model (really just a scam to cut costs and boost the egos of the private office-dwelling directors) will find it nearly impossible to retain introverts. They, the introverts, will simply have too many other options. The open space dinosaurs will be left with the unproductive, babbling attention-seekers.

#95 the Jaguar on 03.19.20 at 7:00 pm

“The point? Simple. We’re not going back to same old, same old when this thing is done in a few weeks or months or a year.” – Garth.

I submit that if the crisis is short term, so will be memories. But if suffering, meaning every aspect of same lingers, it will cause the enlightened few to examine the lives they have been leading. What matters, what doesn’t, where to live, how to live and what is most meaningful in life.
But if people want to hang back with the brutes they are free to do so……..
Below a quote from the wonderfully funny Dmitry Orlov. His reference is Trump, but seems to me it sort of applies to the current crisis. Mercy.

“And so, Trump or no Trump, we are going to have more of the same: shiny young IT specialists skipping and whistling on the way to work past piles of human near-corpses and their excrement; Botoxed housewives shopping for fake organic produce while hungry people in the back of the store are digging around in dumpsters; concerned citizens demanding that migrants be allowed in, then calling the cops as soon as these migrants set up tents on their front lawn or ring their doorbell and ask to use the bathroom; well-to-do older couples dreaming of bugging out to some tropical gringo compound in a mangrove swamp where they would be chopped up with machetes and fed to the fish; and all of them believing that things are great because the stock market is doing so well.”

#96 JacqueShellacque on 03.19.20 at 7:07 pm

Garth, I think spring arrived a little early this year. Everyone realized the black swan had arrived about a week or so ago.

I’m no doom n gloomer, I believe in human ingenuity and the global economy, spent the last 10 years living debt-free and saving into a portfolio Garth would approve of (10% of gross plus up to $600/mth for RESP), but the DEBT out there! At this point I think everything might be on the table. When not insignificant swathes of the population “need” the gov’t to forward them money to buy groceries, that means something’s up. Either even gov’t just flat out runs out of money, or they keep printing until it becomes worthless and then we’re all poor. I think something would happen geopolitically before then though (destabilized Iran, wounded China, political chaos in US), and it could genuinely be dangerous. Best case scenario is most of us are all vacationing as normal this July, with some poor business owners and service workers trying to pick up the pieces. I’m not sure I entirely believe that will happen though.

#97 Flop... on 03.19.20 at 7:08 pm

Paging Chartmasters, Rhino Lewenza and Doug Robax to the blog.

No one is going on a cruise ship anytime soon, but here are some charts that could make you sea sick…

M45BC

Charted: The Impact of COVID-19 on the World’s Major Stock Indexes.

https://howmuch.net/articles/index-drops-amid-covid19-outbreak

#98 Anonymous on 03.19.20 at 7:10 pm

Good to hear from Tracy. Now that she worked hard and landed on her feet she can support all the bums around her who didn’t work hard, invest or save.

#99 grasshopper on 03.19.20 at 7:11 pm

I am surprised that the price of gold and silver has not gone up.

If I try to buy gold or silver, they are “out of stock”.

I would expect the price would go up if the supply was down.

Maybe it is just the company that I have dealt with in the past that has no inventory. Any suggestions?

#100 tbone on 03.19.20 at 7:12 pm

Bought some Enbridge yesterday .
Up two bucks a share today .
Went to M & M Meats and I was the only customer in the store . Bought a bunch of stuff.
Life is good .

#101 Yuus bin Haad on 03.19.20 at 7:15 pm

I heard that Drake is going to self-immolate. Is that true?

#102 Deplorable Dude on 03.19.20 at 7:16 pm

#79 Curious George “How could the virus be going wild in other countries while the rest of China is doing ok? Please explain this to me o wise ones…”

Because in China it started as a single point source in Wuhan, and was ‘relatively’ easy to contain locally. But globally each country was/is being infected in multiple locations simultaneously…thanks to international travel.

I think Italy is an outlier…..

2 reasons :-

a) Culture – More older generation, and larger families that live together. Also a lot of smokers.

b) China apparently brought a lot of textile factories in Northern Italy and had a direct flight route there from Wuhan. Not too hard to figure out the implications.

#103 SeeB on 03.19.20 at 7:22 pm

#79 Curious George on 03.19.20 at 6:37 pm
Would some wise blog dog please refer me to some site or article that explains how China by initially denying they had a problem, allow the coronavirus to run amok in their country for who knows how long and now claim to have completely contained it. Wuhan has 11 million citizens, is in central China in a province with a population the size of Italy. Is it possible that the virus did not go to the rest of China while it was “not being recognized” when Hubei is the central hub of China and has almost 60 million citizens? How is this possible folks? How could the virus be going wild in other countries while the rest of China is doing ok? Please explain this to me o wise ones…

————————————————————

They literally have the most effective and coordinated propaganda machine the world has ever seen. Whether they used it to control their own population and sufficiently to contain the spread, or, are just doing an amazing job lying about it, the effectiveness of their narrative is the same.

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-china-winning-propaganda-war/

#104 People Panic on 03.19.20 at 7:23 pm

#12 Danforth

The toilet paper calculator for me and mine forecasts that I have a 33 day supply left, and I have not been able to buy any since the panic started. But of course I was previously in the habit of buying the Costco stuff even before the run so it comes in the house 36 roles at a time. And I use a “one open, one on the shelf” method so I started with more than 36 roles. For me it was more about regular prepping and saving money by buying in bulk, not hording. Turns out it worked so long as the toilet paper panic is over by mid April. Which it should be, assuming sooner or later people realize that they have way more than they need and they can’t sell it on Amazon for more than they bought it at Costco because it’s still coming into the stores.

The really weird thing about the toilet paper panic is that there has been no interruption in the supply chain, it is one of the few products that does not come from China. There has always been enough before. Were there that many people who were down to their last role? Or maybe they all shit themselves when they looked at their portfolios? But most of them don’t have a portfolio. No money before the market crash, no money after, same-same.

What this whole toilet paper panic proves is that most people don’t have a plan. Not for anything. Not for retirement, not for savings, not for ice-storms, not for plagues of locusts, not for a liberal government, not for anything. I think squirrels are better at planning ahead than most people.

And folks calm down! It wasn’t but a full and well lived lifetime ago that most people were shitting in a bucket! No toilet paper was yet available! Even in today’s world probably more people don’t have access to toilet paper than do, and they get by. This is a classic case of focusing all of your energy on exactly the wrong things.

When I was last in Costco, only a few days ago, all the toilet paper was gone, but you could get as much canned meat as you liked. Sure it is an acquired taste and has too much salt, but apparently people are much more concerned about what is coming out than if there is anything to go in.

#105 The Flying Foxtrot on 03.19.20 at 7:27 pm

Great post today Garth. Nice story at the end. Best of luck Tracy :)

#106 Oracle of Ottawa on 03.19.20 at 7:27 pm

I can certainly see some banks closing and there will be ATM’s in their place. Small markets will still need branches as a lot of people retire there and they’re not as teck savvy as urbanites. I don’t think the cruise lines will get quite as dire as you mention. Reitirees who make up the majority of passengers will still want to travel. This whole crises only started a little over month ago. Once people get tired of the media fever and wise up, this will simply be a small notch in life’s timeline.

#107 akashic record on 03.19.20 at 7:28 pm

The “just a flu” team has turned out to be dead wrong.

#108 Unhinged Trader on 03.19.20 at 7:30 pm

Someone made a live website which visually tracks the activities of the Federal Reserve in real time against the indices:

https://brrr.money/

#109 Jim on 03.19.20 at 7:30 pm

WTI crude jumped nearly 24% on Thursday, the most since trading began in 1983, rebounding from more than 18-year low after President Trump said that oil dispute is bad for both Russia and Saudi Arabia and he could get involved at the appropriate time, most likely this week. President Trump might agree on sanctions against Russia while sanctioning other countries who refuse to cut output. This will increase the price floor of WTI to $50/bbl in the coming months.
——————————————————————

Oil prices are going up back again!
I can’t wait for oil to recover to $70-80 a barrel!

#110 islander on 03.19.20 at 7:31 pm

#35 Unemployment
you said it!

In the meantime, just google ‘Greece- financial disaster’ or ‘Greece 2008’ to see what’s coming down the pike.

Garth,
You may not have a crystal ball, but you got us all thinking.
I have understood my ‘risk tolerance’ for quite some time now, and I can tell you it’s not very high.
Fortunately, some time ago, I acted accordingly!
Thanks again.

#111 John Gerogise on 03.19.20 at 7:33 pm

Usuarygreed, I don’t know why more credit unions and branches have not popped up as this is an opportunity for them. It is an opportunity for lower interest rate credit card options and lending that credit unions always provide.

If you look at most of their present locations in Toronto for instance, they do not need to be big. What makes the major banks hypocrites is my friend tried to open a TD Direct Investing account but he needed to show many forms of ID in person. They want to make sure they don’t get scammed but as a customer it is okay to give all your information online and get scammed.

I would not deposit any money with any financial institution that does not have a or some physical locations as I don’t know if my money is going to where it should be going. Many people are going have to get scammed in order to learn the hard way before they believe in a 100% digital, electronic, paperless, less evidence, record based world.

#112 oh bouy on 03.19.20 at 7:35 pm

@#46 MF on 03.19.20 at 5:21 pm
7 JohnAB on 03.19.20 at 4:05

Yeah sure. And who is going to be buying this overpriced garbage?

Lots of people would love a million dollar home. Few can afford it.

Covid changes everything. The script has changed. Real estate was the story from 2009-2020, but not anymore.

Oh yeah, and the government handouts will nothing.

MF
___________________________________

lol, its cute how desperate you are for a bit of schadenfreude.

#113 oh bouy on 03.19.20 at 7:38 pm

tinfoil hat brigade are going to be happy with todays post garth.

oh and nobody, from any generation loves open concept offices. total productivity killer.

#114 yvr_lurker on 03.19.20 at 7:45 pm

#10 Brian Ripley
My niece works at VGH (Vancouver General Hospital) and says the Covid-19 problem is much worse than what is being reported and that middle aged people are at the same risk as older people.

——————–

I have a close family friend who works there as well. This is exactly what he told me over the phone last night. 40 and 50 year olds are just as vulnerable as the older people it seems. Stay safe out there and really follow the directives being put forth by the Gov’t

#115 IHCTD9 on 03.19.20 at 7:45 pm

#73 TurnerNation on 03.19.20 at 6:10 pm
Is there anyone in the Ontario Education field here?
My guess what that the closed rural schools will not be reopened. That people must head to city.
Or is there an E-learning platform in the works? ?
Ontariowe is broke now would be their excuse to heave unionized teachers on strike.
———

A ton of old rural schools have already been closed. Flatten 3, build 1. Student bodies have been dropping for years. Lots of brand new schools in Hicksvilles all over Ontario. Some built into multi use buildings that also contain the public Library or Police dept.

The Ontario government is trying to get E-Learing off the ground, but the various Teachers Unions are fighting it tooth and nail. Evidently they prefer the old Cretaceous system we have now for some reason…

It’ll come before too long unless we’re ultra stupid – it’s pretty much all positives with no negatives.

I don’t see closures, the kids are already behind enough thanks to the strikes, and now the C-19 shut down on top.

#116 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 7:46 pm

Well color me shocked. A dangerous novel virus gets rolling, MSM gets hysteria to a fever pitch and all our scientific community can do is plot exponential charts and lock us all down.

All while the bloody cure is sitting on a shelf.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saibala/2020/03/19/what-exactly-is-hydroxychloroquine-the-drug-that-is-being-tested-as-the-first-potential-coronavirus-treatment/#14af4bd47994

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/french-study-finds-anti-malarial-and-antibiotic-combo-could-reduce-covid-19-duration/

#117 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.19.20 at 7:48 pm

#106 akashic record on 03.19.20 at 7:28 pm
The “just a flu” team has turned out to be dead wrong.
——–
Yeah, they should have said, “just a cold”

#118 Curious George on 03.19.20 at 7:48 pm

#99 Deplorable Dude on 03.19.20 at 7:16 pm
#79 Curious George “How could the virus be going wild in other countries while the rest of China is doing ok? Please explain this to me o wise ones…”

“Because in China it started as a single point source in Wuhan, and was ‘relatively’ easy to contain locally. But globally each country was/is being infected in multiple locations simultaneously…thanks to international travel.

I think Italy is an outlier…..”

You realize that it was several months before the Chinese government even admitted they had a problem, that Wuhan has 11 million citizens in a province of 60 million and that for several months, these citizens had contact with who knows how many other Chinese citizens. To compound matters, millions of Chinese were travelling around the country for Chinese New Year BEFORE the official lockdown of Wuhan…

#119 Debtslavecreator on 03.19.20 at 7:50 pm

General idea of what’s ahead into 2025
-stagflationary depression with groceries 3/4X more and 20-25 % unemployment and a lot of anger
-stocks bottom out if not already worst case would be a quick move to 17 k and then a final blast off to 35-40 k in 2021-2022
-euro and Japanese govt bonds collapse along with a large segment of high yield and lower tier “investment grade “ Corp bonds resulting in crushing losses for pensions and “conservative” investors with many MF/ETF being gated – no redemptions
-massive scary rise in taxes and asset confiscations under the guise of a pandemic / economic emergency. The now broke masses who engaged in reckless debt / housing habits getting hand outs as your aptly named loonie crashes to .55-.60 by Q1 2021
-European bank holiday is imminent before year end – May very well trigger a bank run in North America as savers panic and withdraw from .5 % accounts and currencies they are becoming toilet paper
-usd peaks in 2021-2022 and commodities see a huge boom from Q1 2022-Q2 2024

Good news – kids under 10 will enjoy a wonderful future and never have to deal with this very rare cycle we find ourselves in over the next 5-10 years

Amazing tech gains improve lives but helps raise structural unemployment

#120 Pay your taxes on 03.19.20 at 7:51 pm

Where’s the mention of corporate debt? They’re the biggest debt hogs out there. Quite a racket they’ve set up: borrow billions of dollars at very low interest rates, buy back your own shares to goose your share price and bonuses, bloat the balance sheet with debt and demand a handout from the government when it all comes crashing down.

The most laughable part is when the neocons snivel about the “moral hazzard ” of giving the prols a grand or two each to weather the storm created by the corporate geniuses. Boeing shareholders might get their heads handed to them, and what a sight that would be after borrowing 43 billion for share buybacks and begging Uncle Sam for a 60 billion dollar handout.

#121 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 7:53 pm

Pentagon harvesting antibodies from the recovered to create a firewall for further infections.

Maybe they can turn all this miraculous research against cancer and other diseases once this virus is gone.

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/diane-francis-pentagons-science-arm-working-on-coronavirus-firewall-to-protect-people-until-the-vaccine-is-ready

#122 Nonplused on 03.19.20 at 7:54 pm

#87 spoon_man

UBI is impossible because you cannot give money to one person without taking it from another.

In the old days, we used to call it “commerce”, and if you wanted my money you could get it if you painted my house or cleared my driveway of snow. Today the new concept is that I should give you money for nothing, paint my own house, clear my own driveway, and still work 8 hours a day. The term we used to use for such arrangements was slavery.

I’ll be happy to pay you if you make my life better, but I won’t pay you to play video games.

#123 leebow on 03.19.20 at 7:55 pm

Yeah, people who hoard TP are dumb. What you need is money. The time to prepare was years ago.

#124 The Deal on 03.19.20 at 7:59 pm

The real change will be how we view and treat China. They have been shown to be what they are. No going back.

#125 burnaby guy on 03.19.20 at 8:00 pm

There were talks on this blog over the years about using your B&D portfolio to pay rent. How can you keep pulling cash out of your portfolio with the market tanking? I’m retired and have enough cash to live on for the next 6 years so I’m fine. What about people that’s about to retire? They are screwed.

#126 John in Mtl on 03.19.20 at 8:01 pm

China Is Avoiding Blame by Trolling the World. Despicable! I hope all the countries send the CCP the bill for the damage done. I feel for the Chinese people, NOT their government.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/china-is-avoiding-blame-by-trolling-the-world/ar-BB11pEWL?li=AAggFp4

#127 Karlhungus on 03.19.20 at 8:08 pm

With the latest bump in kid bucks, I bet 60% of people don’t pay tax anymore

#128 Stratovarious on 03.19.20 at 8:11 pm

Your column today reminds me of Churchill’s saying – Never let a crisis go to waste. As you suggest, Business will hasten the demise of bricks and mortar in the name of social distancing. Government will also hasten the demise of any remaining free-market capitalism so that Boeing, Delta Airlines, Ford, and others will get a richly deserved bailout. But as requested by Elizabeth Warren, Corporate America will be prohibited from future stock buybacks (particularly with borrowed money), with the government owning stock, and having a say on the Board (maybe with a union boss also sitting at the table). Trump will achieve his objective of moving production back to North America, as globalism takes it on the chin. And I expect that both global travel, and Chinese Take-Out, will be less frequent.

A final prediction – the days of 20-30% yearly increase in the S&P 500 are gone for the foreseeable future. The era of reduced expectations is about to begin. Could it be that the masses might actually have to save money again?

#129 palebird on 03.19.20 at 8:13 pm

#106 akashic record

It is just a flu. Worse for some people than others. Who knew? It will beat you down and then what may kill you is pneumonia. You can get pneumonia any time you please. It is a fairly common way to die for people with weak immune systems in case you never noticed this fact. I personally have had pneumonia twice, when I was 17 and when I was 23, both times as a result of running myself ragged burning the candle at both ends while working in the great white north in sub-arctic temperatures. Very ugly. It will kill you young or old. My family doctor gave me the big speech the second time around and I never forgot it. Have not had a problem since. But you do have to put your personal health first and foremost.

But to destroy the world economies over this is absurd. I don’t think anyone knows what is coming around the bend. The ones that dare speculate while using common sense are more than a little concerned. There is no leadership here, just panic. The tail is wagging the dog.

#130 Lay-off/EI Q on 03.19.20 at 8:13 pm

Small business owner (20 staff) here with a q. Are my employees still able to collect EI if I top that up to say 80% of their pre-covid wages? And what if they are able to do some minor work remotely – would they be able to do that or does EI require that they not work at all? Thanks in advance for any comment / insights.

#131 Nonplused on 03.19.20 at 8:14 pm

No. – Garth

You are the expert on all things TFSA, having invented it, so thinks for the clarification.

On to another question. I have a small relative to the portfolio position in a fund that buys Canadian bank preferred shares, collects the dividends, and then sells out of the money covered calls for “beta” as they call it. I know for previous discussions that you hate this fund, but I will launch a question anyway.

Since the banks are sound, the dividends are still flowing, and there is no way any of the options sold previously will be exercised, why is this fund crashing along with the market? Yes of course they could be selling options again but they will be doing so at much higher volatility, thus getting more premium. It just doesn’t make sense to me. I do understand that the underlying bank stocks have fallen, but I don’t understand why. The dividends are still rolling in.

#132 conan on 03.19.20 at 8:22 pm

Way less people working in office towers. -Garth

This version of Mr Virus likes the elevator.
I predict a booming business in customized N95 masks. Any stencil you want, Scoobi- Doo to Jaba the Hut.

#133 oh bouy on 03.19.20 at 8:25 pm

poignant article.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-securities-regulators-warn-about-emerging-stock-frauds-related-to/

#134 Barb on 03.19.20 at 8:27 pm

Attagirl Tracy!

Hold your head high, you deserve to.

#135 Tommy Douglas on 03.19.20 at 8:31 pm

Hey Smokie. You mentioned you are back in Canada for some treatments. You had to return to socialist Canada for that cowboy? What not get it done in your esteemed land of America? Please explain senor…

#136 BS on 03.19.20 at 8:33 pm

#7 JohnAB on 03.19.20 at 4:05 pm
My thoughts on GTA housing prices…

Overall, the facts mentioned above will never allow real estate to go down

John I guess you missed what happened in the US in 2008. You forgot the big elephant in the room. Real estate purchases require credit. When the big 6 banks are giving a 6 month payment holiday (never done before) and CRA is giving a tax holiday (never doen before) how credit worthy do you think the average Canadian is? Those breaks are for those that own homes already and work. Do you think the banks will handing out new mortgages? Credit is about to tighten significantly. Look at REITs. Most are down over 50%.

Seriously do you think those who need the 6 month payment grace (which must be paid back) will be ready to buy anytime soon? Do you think all those that will delay their taxes with CRA will be ready to buy? All the businesses closed, massive layoffs. RE is toast. GTA probably the biggest drop of them all. Could be 70% from peak within 2 years. Look at the REITs. Some are down 60% in the last few weeks. And they started out better value than the average residential RE in GTA or YVR.

#137 habitt on 03.19.20 at 8:51 pm

Yep the perfect storm. What’s next. Follow the money.

#138 Chooch on 03.19.20 at 8:54 pm

Trudeau said.. No Canadians should have to worry about paying rent. Rent is now a free service.

#139 espressobob on 03.19.20 at 8:56 pm

Jack Bogle would tell you to keep investing.

#140 Graph Meister on 03.19.20 at 9:03 pm

Check it out – who is ‘flattening the curve’.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/19/world/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve-countries.html

#141 SunDays on 03.19.20 at 9:12 pm

COVID-19 will be with us until herd immunity is achieved, or the population is vaccinated. No other options. Shutting down businesses is not going to stop people from dying.

Worth listening to Karl Denninger:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2fI1jLkDtw

#142 NFN_NLN on 03.19.20 at 9:14 pm

Government 2018: “We’re concerned CPP is not sustainable due to the increasing lifespan of retirees.”

Coronavirus 2020: “I got dis fam…”

#143 DON on 03.19.20 at 9:14 pm

#117 Curious George on 03.19.20 at 7:48 pm

#99 Deplorable Dude on 03.19.20 at 7:16 pm
#79 Curious George “How could the virus be going wild in other countries while the rest of China is doing ok? Please explain this to me o wise ones…”

“Because in China it started as a single point source in Wuhan, and was ‘relatively’ easy to contain locally. But globally each country was/is being infected in multiple locations simultaneously…thanks to international travel.

I think Italy is an outlier…..”

You realize that it was several months before the Chinese government even admitted they had a problem, that Wuhan has 11 million citizens in a province of 60 million and that for several months, these citizens had contact with who knows how many other Chinese citizens. To compound matters, millions of Chinese were travelling around the country for Chinese New Year BEFORE the official lockdown of Wuhan…
**************

If you can find the ‘Man with the Yellow Hat’ he would know.

But it is suspect to say the least. As I endlessly scour the media I have seen little to date. What I heard recently BBC/SCMP/etc was that China’s official numbers didn’t include those in lock down that didn’t get tested and may have been sick. But one would think where are the rise in deaths.

Then I remember China’s leadership can pretty much do what they like. Also heard like you did that this started back on September/October. Recently, China has come out blaming the US for releasing the virus at the Wuhan Military Games back in October. Then the US scoffs and points the finger back. Who knows, but actions speak louder than words.

The question: Was China’s authoritarian directives enough to rid them of virus from the Wuhan area? Maybe, but un-bloody likely. It didn’t spread to other parts of China but somehow spread to the rest of the world. If the leadership in China lose their godly self imposed status the people might rebel and be more successful with the US knocking on the door.

The Hong Kong protests weren’t helping the scenario. But that’s a side note.

February 2020 feels like a long long time ago, no more Hong Kong protests, no more Canadian protests. Govs are now free to spend tons of cash and there will be no opposition. The blame can now be put on the virus and oil price war and not the inevitable underlying issues that were gaining velocity into the red.

Trump handing out money directly to main street (if it goes through) will help get him re-elected. He will now pivot from the saviour of markets to saviour of the people. He will now have the backing to bring manufacturing of certain products back to the US of A.

From what I am hearing and seeing the job lay offs have already started. I know of a company that laid off all operation’s staff last week and the office workers this week Canada/US.

The market is desperate for good news and the headlines are misleading and thrive on ignorance of what happened the day or week before.

As for pent up demand when this is all done. In terms of groceries, medication, comforts and toilet paper everyone is already stocked up for months. I take it these numbers will show up in first quarter consumer numbers?

But still the safe haven of GOLD sells off – to cover margins. AND our dollar sinks as the green back goes to historic highs. Now everything will be more expensive. I should have bought that engine part in January.

But I did wait to invest a lump sum and am glad I did. I was getting ready to pull the trigger but the data didn’t make sense. Now we wait for the hang over to finish.

Canada 2008 was the Western Banking rising star, now in 2020 all eyes are on Australia and Canada.

In short no…I can’t find what you are looking for. Try the Red Hat dude! He has an answer for everything.

#144 Picksinh3 on 03.19.20 at 9:24 pm

Hi Garth , what’s your advise on REITs? they are down too like preferred.
Thanks

Hold. Why sell anything now? – Garth

#145 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 9:38 pm

#90 re: “By 2024, Boomers will be mostly gone in terms of influence. ”

Not so sure about that considering the youngest boomers are 55ish currently.

#146 YouKnowWho on 03.19.20 at 9:47 pm

I caught a few minutes of CNN today.

I gotta tell you Garth, there is this smell of fear by the wrinkles around this one. So much feedback and talk that the “youth” aren’t taking it seriously. Out there jogging, riding bikes, taking walks, etc. Not like the young are really on Corona’s Hit List.

As you noted, this could become a generational thing. Hope “OK Boomer” doesn’t turn into “Sneeze On Boomer”

#147 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 9:48 pm

@#68 SailAway

re: “I take it back. You’re not God. You are something else entirely.”

Poor little LostBoy. His brain is missing something others have, and he can’t get his head around that.

#148 DON on 03.19.20 at 9:48 pm

#119 Pay your taxes on 03.19.20 at 7:51 pm

Where’s the mention of corporate debt? They’re the biggest debt hogs out there. Quite a racket they’ve set up: borrow billions of dollars at very low interest rates, buy back your own shares to goose your share price and bonuses, bloat the balance sheet with debt and demand a handout from the government when it all comes crashing down.

The most laughable part is when the neocons snivel about the “moral hazzard ” of giving the prols a grand or two each to weather the storm created by the corporate geniuses. Boeing shareholders might get their heads handed to them, and what a sight that would be after borrowing 43 billion for share buybacks and begging Uncle Sam for a 60 billion dollar handout.
*************

Yup if they are too big to fail then nationalize them. Germany is thinking about it. Capitalism caught a virus a long time ago.

#149 YouKnowWho on 03.19.20 at 9:49 pm

…in another generational conflict of Covid-19…

If you’re short of ventilators, who do you give it to?
The 70 year old?
The 60 year old?
The 80 year old?

Or

The 40 year old father of 2?
30 year old father of 3?
20 year old student?

#150 AlMac on 03.19.20 at 9:49 pm

The stat of ‘new cases’ is meaningless. Right now, only at risk people are being tested. Many people with symptoms are not being tested if they are not critical or in the younger segment of the population.

Unless a representative sample of the population is tested, we do not know what the real infection rate is. Many people are able to carry and spread the disease without showing symptoms.

So read the number of ‘new cases’ with a grain of salt.

#151 oh bouy on 03.19.20 at 9:50 pm

hmmm
– crisis has exposed deep-seated weaknesses in the global financial system

_______

World faces new credit crunch, investors warn
The stock markets have taken a terrible battering in recent weeks but although they are showing signs of recovery today – the Nikkei is down just 1% while stimulus-rich Australia is up 4% – trouble looms in the international credit markets.

I’ve been speaking to investors and economists who say that the crisis has exposed deep-seated weaknesses in the global financial system.

Angus Coote, of Jamieson Coote Bonds in Melbourne, says the corporate world is heading for a wave of bankruptcies as companies struggle to rollover debt because borrowing costs (as shown by so-called credit spreads) have spiked so much as risk has increased.

#152 Shawn Allen on 03.19.20 at 9:54 pm

China shows us what?

#123 The Deal on 03.19.20 at 7:59 pm
The real change will be how we view and treat China. They have been shown to be what they are. No going back.

*************************************
What they are that is important to me at the moment is smart enough to have apparently eradicated the virus in their country.

#153 oh bouy on 03.19.20 at 9:54 pm

forgot the link in last post

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/coronavirus-crisis-could-lead-to-new-credit-crunch-as-companies-struggle-with-debt

#154 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 9:55 pm

@#39 re: “You really think we have evidence of a God who gives a rat’s bubonic ass about humanity now or in the past?? ”

LOL….reminds of that game we played as kids where you sit in a circle and one kid whispers something into the ear of the kid next to him. The second kid in turn whispers what he heard to the next kid, and so on. The last kid in the circle repeats what he heard. Usually it has nothing to do with what the first kid actually said.

#155 Stone on 03.19.20 at 9:58 pm

“The point? Simple. We’re not going back to same old, same old when this thing is done in a few weeks or months or a year.” – Garth.

I do wonder, not just for Canada but for other countries as well. With a massive global recession/depression on its way and massive unemployment, will mass immigration still be in favour? Will large amounts of foreign students continue to be a part of universities? Will outsourcing still be economical or even socially acceptable? Or will it all dry up and disappear?

I don’t think Canada and other similar countries are ready for what’s coming. We’re set up to prosper under a system who’s time may have come to an end. I have a feeling it’s going to get very, very, ugly.

#156 Curious George on 03.19.20 at 10:01 pm

#141 DON on 03.19.20 at 9:14 pm

Thanks for your response. This article sums it all up quite nicely. I call total BS on what China is reporting and don’t believe for one second that they have contained it to Hubei province. The Chinese had to admit it was a problem but in one short month went from it being a huge health crisis to, ” we have contained it and now the rest of the world has a problem…” Their Communist propaganda machine is now running full blast…

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/the-reaction-to-the-outbreak-has-revealed-the-unreceonstructed-despotism-of-the-chinese-state

#157 YouKnowWho on 03.19.20 at 10:08 pm

Well, look at this…

CBC The National is here on the bandwagon today of US vs. Them (young vs. Old), scaring young into compliance now.

FINALLY, someone who’s had it being interviewed on a news channel, but of course it is a young person to get the youth into shape.

Interestingly, they are showing March Break parties in Florida and young saying “I’m not going to let Corona stop my from partying!”

#158 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 10:09 pm

@#42 SoldAway

Good comment.

#159 PBrasseur on 03.19.20 at 10:11 pm

Last recession Canada did better than the U.s. but this time will be the opposit. Just how bad remains to be seen.

#160 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 10:13 pm

oops! Sorry #42 Sold Out (not SoldAway).

#161 "And for my next trick, I'll need a few billion volunteers from the audience " on 03.19.20 at 10:16 pm

Come on Garth, you’re telling them to obey authority. Tell ’em the truth, it’s martial law.

#162 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 10:18 pm

Maybe MR should visit a polling station next election before he writes off the boomers.

Millennials will be at retirement age before boomers influence fades and by that time Gen Z will be nipping at their heels.

#163 habitt on 03.19.20 at 10:26 pm

Yep the perfect storm. What’s next. Likely lots of fire sales and gee wonder who will benefit LOL. Follow the money. Its a massive wealth transfer. One must take advantage of opportunities presented.

#164 Tudval on 03.19.20 at 10:27 pm

Luckily for us, the little Wuhan virus won’t be enough to prevent Trump from being POTUS for another 5 years, so it won’t be so easy for the Beijing commie virus to take hold in Canada. A little bail-out here, a lot of tough questions later… hold on to your hats, we don’t go belly up so easy.

#165 Smoking Man on 03.19.20 at 10:27 pm

Back to liking Roger Waters again….

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6139209248001

#166 DON on 03.19.20 at 10:28 pm

#90 Millennial Realist on 03.19.20 at 6:55 pm

I think the lag time to a recovery, perhaps 6-12 months, will accentuate the concerns of Boomers already planning to retire soon.

Expect to see CPP/OAS top-ups to help Boomers leave the workplace. This will accentuate the takeover of jobs by Millennials and Gen X/Y’ers. This will be to ameliorate RRSP losses incurred in the current market drop.

I have friends working in big corps and public sectors where the retirement projections this year, even before the virus, were close to 2% per month of the workforce, all of them Boomers planning their exits. A huge change is already underway demographically in the workforce, and the virus and its governmental remedies will heighten this. By 2024, Boomers will be mostly gone in terms of influence.

2021 will be a year of incredible social change, count on it.
**************

Things have changed!

And there is a good chance that hiring freezes will arrive suddenly. People will still retire if they have enough pension / investment funds and will stay working if not.

But don’t count on every retiree being replaced. YOU and I will be doing MORE with LESS. And now we will allow you to do more with less at home and you pay for the internet connection, toilet paper, heat, water.

In less than a month we have a different reality. Better to move on then sit and dwell on the past.

#167 mark on 03.19.20 at 10:30 pm

This was forwarded from a Facebook friend, it gave me pause…………. have no idea how accurate facts are.

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand…

It has to do with RNA sequencing…. I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year… you get immunity two ways…through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals…. the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans… then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now…. sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human… once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, that’s what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly….but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Corona-virus… it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long…but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person… But here is the scary part…. in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Corona-virus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity…doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Corona-virus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza…. this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater…And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L….which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed…(honestly…I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation…

And let me end by saying….right now it’s hitting older folks harder… but this genome is so slippery…if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks… acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.

Flatten the Curve! Stay home folks… and share this to those that just are not catching on.

#168 Zigfried Stardust on 03.19.20 at 10:33 pm

“Ch-ch-ch-changes”

Garth, please don’t tell us you are going to go through an mid-life crisis Bowie-esque glam-rock phase. I just don’t think you would look good in drag.

#169 Joe on 03.19.20 at 10:37 pm

Yeah garth agree with the bank comments. CIBC have way less banks, they all seem to be out of the way for me now. CIBC has branches now with no tellers just a few investment people and some cash machines.

#170 Tudval on 03.19.20 at 10:40 pm

Read https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/china-trolling-world-and-avoiding-blame/608332/

Stop the disgusting praise of the Chinese dictator.

#171 Andrew on 03.19.20 at 10:42 pm

Hear, hear

#172 Zeful Tuxson on 03.19.20 at 10:46 pm

Very likely moving to a cashless society with everything online and easily tracked by the tax man.

#173 Geoff on 03.19.20 at 10:47 pm

#80 Stone ”
All for show after Shoppers Drug Mart got caught gouging customers on TP and other essentials. Everyone who has a PC Points card will know, dear Galen Weston sent out a few emails and one of them was to say they wouldn’t gouge. Yeah Galen. Sure. We believe you, you piece of s**t. Trust me buddy, we will not forget”.

And did you hear Galen on his new commercial today, saying that they have reduced store hours so they have more time to clean and so their workers can rest more? Okay Galen, sure! We’re all idiots apparently.

#174 Borris Badenough on 03.19.20 at 11:03 pm

Trudeau putting on a jacket made world news?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-51953311/coronavirus-trudeau-grabs-coat-during-live-press-briefing

Putin would have ripped off his shirt and got down to do 1000 one-armed push-ups

#175 Timbutz Too on 03.19.20 at 11:07 pm

Am predicting Big Brother will pull the plug on the internet and all media for 1-2 months. When we are reconnected, the new world order will have started. GNN, the Government News Network will be your new source of information.

#176 Bileth on 03.19.20 at 11:12 pm

#10 Brian Ripley
My niece works at VGH (Vancouver General Hospital) and says the Covid-19 problem is much worse than what is being reported and that middle aged people are at the same risk as older people.

——————–

I have a close family friend who works there as well. This is exactly what he told me over the phone last night. 40 and 50 year olds are just as vulnerable as the older people it seems. Stay safe out there and really follow the directives being put forth by the Gov’t

——————-

*BS to both of these. Don’t talk out of your ass on things you have no idea about.*

#177 Sail Away on 03.19.20 at 11:13 pm

#141 DON on 03.19.20 at 9:14 pm

Trump handing out money directly to main street (if it goes through) will help get him re-elected. He will now pivot from the saviour of markets to saviour of the people. He will now have the backing to bring manufacturing of certain products back to the US of A.

—————————

Yes! The Donald is doing a fantastic job, although, admittedly, attributing him saviour status is a little much.

#178 JohnAB on 03.19.20 at 11:17 pm

#134 BS on 03.19.20 at 8:33 pm

Thank you for your reply. This is the kind of replies I was looking for. The thing is that I looked at the canadian RE in 2008 tha fell down a little then started climbing back again. Asking myself what was the difference I saw that the US morgaging was completely out of control, giving it away to people that shouldn’t have had it. On the other hand Canada was more diciplined. Also US had a huge amount of houses built during the boom, while we have inly condos. Also, if I’m not wrong in US you could send the keys of the house in an envelope and declare bancrupcy. While here you’ll have to pay the diff (like if you declare bancrupcy, bank sells your house with 700k but you still had to pay 800k, you’ll still own 100k from your future income) please correct me if I’m wrong. What you say makes perfect sense though. No credit, no sales. The only things that I think can crash the RE prices are job losses, income lowering, and no credit as a whole. In this case, yes, we’ll have a carnage.

#179 N (orignal) on 03.19.20 at 11:23 pm

The AP dept. of a client in New York called today to ask for our banking information so they could start wiring us money. No more paper checks they said. People have to come to work to send them, and they are dirty. Soon they will be nothing but a thing to tell your grandkids about.

#180 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.19.20 at 11:42 pm

Read that they are pressing breweries into producing sanitizers.
Again, Johnny Six Pack is being screwed while the rich are sipping Champagne.

#181 fishman on 03.20.20 at 12:04 am

My buddy’s been in country three days : self quarantined. Six days since he came down with sneezing & dry coughing & chills way down in the good ole U.S. of A. Gave up trying to get through on the phone for an appointment to a designated spot for a test. His doctor said show up at emergency for any kind of attention. I left a few bags of groceries & $70 Scotch outside door. Our plan if things get desperate. Crawl into the back of my pickup. I’ll backup to emergency entrance at the hospital.
Meanwhile, tough it out. Hard times in the land of plenty.

#182 David Colquhoun on 03.20.20 at 12:06 am

Fantastic article. A voice of reason in these troubled times. Reminds me of Rudyard Kiplings ‘IF’.

#183 Blackdog on 03.20.20 at 12:08 am

This is an interesting read, very relevant to this post.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579

#184 belly rubs on 03.20.20 at 12:30 am

#79 Curious George on 03.19.20 at 6:37 pm
Would some wise blog dog please refer me to some site or article that explains how China by initially denying they had a problem, allow the coronavirus to run amok in their country for who knows how long and now claim to have completely contained it. Wuhan has 11 million citizens, is in central China in a province with a population the size of Italy. Is it possible that the virus did not go to the rest of China while it was “not being recognized” when Hubei is the central hub of China and has almost 60 million citizens? How is this possible folks? How could the virus be going wild in other countries while the rest of China is doing ok? Please explain this to me o wise ones…

….

The virus is tiny. It multiplies slowly. It is difficult to detect until it shows symptoms. Once people are aware, they change their behaviour. The virus did spread to other parts of China. Then the Chinese changed their behaviour. Canadians are slowly changing behaviour. Reassess April 15 (three incubation periods).

#185 Long-Time Lurker on 03.20.20 at 12:40 am

#113 yvr_lurker on 03.19.20 at 7:45 pm
#10 Brian Ripley
My niece works at VGH (Vancouver General Hospital) and says the Covid-19 problem is much worse than what is being reported and that middle aged people are at the same risk as older people.

——————–

I have a close family friend who works there as well. This is exactly what he told me over the phone last night. 40 and 50 year olds are just as vulnerable as the older people it seems. Stay safe out there and really follow the directives being put forth by the Gov’t

>Snowflakes are going to love this:

I’ve been watching young people drop dead on the street in China and Iran for the past month and a half via Twitter. Now for Europe and North America.

The youngest fatality I’ve seen was 17 years old. Plus, I heard that an Iranian soccer/football star died at age 23.

WUHAN-400.

Coronavirus doctor says lung scans for young patients were ‘nothing short of terrifying’
By Jackie Salo
March 17, 2020 | 2:24pm | Updated

A Belgian doctor working to battle the coronavirus says he’s treated several seriously ill young patients — and their lung scans were “nothing short of terrifying,” according to reports.

Dr. Ignace Demeyer, who works at a hospital in Aalst, said an increasing number of people between the ages of 30 and 50 have presented with severe symptoms, despite having “blank medical records” that show no underlying conditions that would make them high-risk, the Brussels Times reported.

“They just walk in, but they are terribly affected by the virus,” Demeyer told the Belgian broadcaster VRT.

He said CT scans indicated they were suffering from severe lung damage.

“The images we took yesterday are nothing short of terrifying,” the doctor told the station.

“They are people who do not smoke, who have no other conditions such as diabetes or heart failure,” Demeyer added.

Belgium has reported at least 1,085 COVID-19 cases and at least five deaths since the virus emerged in China in December.

Worldwide, there have been more than 190,000 people infected as of Tuesday afternoon, according to a tally from Johns Hopkins University.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-doctor-says-lung-scans-for-young-patients-were-nothing-short-of-terrifying/

#186 Spectacle on 03.20.20 at 12:46 am

#79 Curious George on 03.19.20 at 6:37 pm
Would some wise blog dog please refer me to some site or article that explains how China by initially denying they had a problem, allow the coronavirus to run amok in their country for who knows how long and now claim to have completely contained it. Wuhan has 11 million citizens, is in central China in a province with a population the size of Italy. Is it possible that the virus did not go to the rest of China while it was “not being recognized” when Hubei is the central hub of China and has almost 60 million citizens? How is this possible folks? How could the virus be going wild in other countries while the rest of China is doing ok? Please explain this to me o wise ones…

————- Not wise, but feel old at times ——

Let’s take Iran as a counter example: they are losing to Corona death, one person every ten minutes. ( and could be escalating). That is 24 hours a day and increasing.
They are struggling to catch up and contain, due to misinformation, lack of process and social culture. They still meet in massive groups and social settings , like markets.
Back to China, Wuhan in specific: they taped doors closed, and we’re very seriously threatend with big problems if they broke the seal. It was a 7 million person lock down! Locked down! Though I would say that twice for effect. The quarantine and isolation, hospitalization was world precedented. Big difference in the playbook. Search Iran graves, Ariel view , on the Internet if you wish to lose some sleep. I won’t defile Sir Turners blog with the images.

On another note, it is only just beginning in Canada. I spoke with a nameless government employee on my morning ride ( in nice isolated area of YVR). He indicated that seasonal hiring had just begun in richmond, and that many were mere days from layoffs. The Reponse by Canadian gov is sincere at some levels, because they have been advised as to the severity of this Corona 19 Emergency Pandemic. Interesting to note that St Paul’s hospital is a CDC type of testing center along with VGh, for good reason. There are reportedly 2 cases of confirmed Corona at that institution already, and that the St Paul’s Hospital is going to turned into a focussed center for isolating and treating the Corona in BC.

Take it for what it is, I do not want to spread misinformation in BC. But watch for continued restriction on mobility , isolation and public closures to avoid the Iran type of issues.

Hope that helps, Be Well All.

#187 I Know Wgere My Money's Going Now, Greedeau!! on 03.20.20 at 12:48 am

Ran into a Cabelas employee at Abbotsford and had a chat.
In the convo he said since last fall he has never seen so many guns and ammo sold in such a short time. Constant stream of preppers. Actually got this same comment from another employee just after Xmas, so it has been going for about 6 months straight. That’s a load of guns and ammo.
Even saw personally Amurricans coming and loading up. Spoke to one last fall as I noticed his Washington plate and he told me that he will definitely be back to grab a lot more!
I guess it’s the 30-40% premium on the dollar that makes them dirt cheap.

#188 Bill on 03.20.20 at 1:01 am

BANG ON!!! This is the plan to control…Socialism / communism. Wait till the Gov bond market implodes…It getting closer. Neg rates in Europe were your first clue.

#189 Coho on 03.20.20 at 1:03 am

Haven’t been on here for many years. Just a hunch that tomorrow’s posting will be positive.

Seems a huge over-reaction to the virus. If we’re lucky this is another once every 10 year boom/bust, this time the virus being the catalyst to crash the markets. It’s another harvesting event for the ruling elite et all which have sold high and are waiting to buy up at pennies on the dollar. Tried and proven and the sheep once again get sheered. After the harvest things will get back to “normal”. Best case scenario.

Perhaps more likely is that certain freedoms and liberties we once had will not return. Power and control will not be relinquished so easily by those that have it. It is the nature of government to attain more power for itself at the expense of the people. Worse than a nation’s citizens under tyranny is a global tyranny over nation states. People would laugh and scoff at this as being conspiracy theory, yet here we are.

#190 Ronaldo on 03.20.20 at 1:09 am

#98 grasshopper on 03.19.20 at 7:11 pm
I am surprised that the price of gold and silver has not gone up.

If I try to buy gold or silver, they are “out of stock”.

I would expect the price would go up if the supply was down.

Maybe it is just the company that I have dealt with in the past that has no inventory. Any suggestions?
————————————————————–
Kitco Pool

#191 TurnerNation on 03.20.20 at 1:17 am

As I understand it every city and town in USA, Canada is being shut down to only essential stores. They will do this until every small business is gone.
You must order online. Only from the billionaires:
AMZN, Walmart, Canadian tire, HBC, Loblaws, Safeway, Sobeys.

#192 Ronaldo on 03.20.20 at 1:18 am

#98 grasshopper on 03.19.20 at 7:11 pm
I am surprised that the price of gold and silver has not gone up.

If I try to buy gold or silver, they are “out of stock”.

I would expect the price would go up if the supply was down.

Maybe it is just the company that I have dealt with in the past that has no inventory. Any suggestions?
—————————————————————
If you were in business of buying and selling gold and you bought a 100 oz bar of silver for 1700 when the paper price was 1700 and the next day someone comes in and wants to buy a 100 oz bar but the paper price is now 1200. Would you sell it to them?

#193 yvr_lurker on 03.20.20 at 1:27 am

China Is Avoiding Blame by Trolling the World. Despicable! I hope all the countries send the CCP the bill for the damage done. I feel for the Chinese people, NOT their government.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/china-is-avoiding-blame-by-trolling-the-world/ar-BB11pEWL?li=AAggFp4

———————————-

It is too early for blame yet as we are all scrambling to secure what we can and bunkering down, but that day will come. For me I a trying to figure out how to give a final exam to 1400 STEM students online. OMG.

Howeber, I want the leaders of the western world to unite and to tell China that unless they eliminate their cultural practices of eating whatever moves (bats, armadillos etc..) through the live markets, then the western world will seek other avenues for world trade and other countries that can be the factories of the world. We can no longer be tied to countries in a close way (with a hundred or so of daily flights) from Europe, North America and have them continue unabated with their barbaric treatment and eating of wild animals that jeopardizes our daily life in a more severe way that any limited conventional war. They need to wake up; full stop. Their actions is equivalent to having a major gas leak in their house sending a huge fireball down the street for the second time (with SARS more of a precursor). We welcome the Chinese, we value their contributions, but their risky actions towards the live markets has to end. No debate. No bullshit.

#194 JSK on 03.20.20 at 2:04 am

I come from Russia originally. Lived thought he collapse of the USSR. I talk to friend back home how the crisis is being handled, and it’s the last thing on people’s minds. When old people get sick, and die of respiratory disease, they just call it pneumonia. No need for testing. Dead. Gone. Next case.

Anyways, back when USSR collapse we had 2 good things. Housing was all state provided and there was no taxation, or it was superficial. Taxation though farm produce, or expectation of labour. But the bottom line was – accommodation was free, and if you don’t have to pay rent, that means you’re much less strained when making ends meet. Food is your main expense. So when the country collapse, even though half the country went unemployed or was working without pay, life continued. Barter system prevailed. People knew relative value of items. Everything could be negotiated. Because of the the public was always trained to be prepared for just about anything, they didn’t loose their heads over the transition. Yes, it was pain. But it was a shared pain with a sense of unity. Despite the financial system being in ruin, factories ran, goods were being produced, resources were being extracted. That’s how the county recovered.

A virus is a different beast though. Quarantines stop everything, so in a sense, this is worse. At least here in Canada there aren’t as many guns as down South. They’ll be shooting eachother over toilet paper rolls any day now.

Prepare to face increase in crime of all kinds. Looting. Broken storefronts. When cities are on lockdown that’s an opportunity for crooks to roam free. They rob your house when you’re at work, and if you’re at home, they’ll rob your employer. Businesses should’ve considered boarding up window fronts before closing. We’re still in early stage and I don’t know how quickly situation might deteriorate.

It’s funny to end up essentially in the same country I came from and 30 years back to witness the same kind of plague conquer people who are completely unprepared and utterly distracted.

You know how much toilet paper and water I bought in preparation? Zero, because in a collapsing country, having something soft to wipe your behind with is the last thing on one’s mind. And water still comes out of a tap. Filling up containers costs nothing.

Last note – get used to a society that cannot live off mindless consumption, from the store to the landfill. Expect more reused things. Jobs such as a an electronics repairman rematerialize. Those replacement parts aren’t coming from China any time soon. So what you buy will have to last.

Longevity and practical application of items will be paramount (that includes the value of currency). Cohabitation? Absolutely.

You know why there were long lineups to buy things in Russia? The kind of stuff you saw on television? It was because money was losing value so fast, money had to be spent the moment it was earned.

We’re not there yet, but it is down the line, hidden in the shadow of so-called “recovery”. Cash is king for now, but timing its resilience is something that I cannot do.

#195 SoggyShorts on 03.20.20 at 2:22 am

#124 burnaby guy on 03.19.20 at 8:00 pm
There were talks on this blog over the years about using your B&D portfolio to pay rent. How can you keep pulling cash out of your portfolio with the market tanking? I’m retired and have enough cash to live on for the next 6 years so I’m fine. What about people that’s about to retire? They are screwed
********
The greatest risk in retirement is sequence of returns.
E.G.
If you go with 4% static withdrawals:
Scenario A:
Returns are -20,+30. This leaves you with 94.64%
Scenario B:
Returns are +30,-20. This leaves you with 96.64%

Garth always says “never sell into a storm” but if you are living off of your portfolio, sometimes you withdraw in down markets.
Having a cash cushion, flexible spending, global arbitrage, optional income stream, and an asset mix glidepath can all help mitigate the sequence of returns risk, but there are downsides to each.

#196 Kick Block on 03.20.20 at 2:46 am

Bravo Tracy. There is an Emergency Benefit program for people who become unemployed due to Corona. $900 BI-weekly, so, sit on your savings and stretch it out. The Federal Program is only 14 weeks at present but as Garth says it’s hard to stop a national program was started. There’s good articles in Vancouver Sun today. NDP is trying to push Trudeau off his hands and get it done quickly, before the Liberals April/May timeframe. It’s time Canadians were recipients of Trudeaus largesse. He announced more billions in foreign aid today. Families of single moms should get their own category imho. Any, Tracy, keep telling your kids it’ll be OK , they rely on you.

#197 Yitzhak Rabin on 03.20.20 at 2:51 am

Need to make a correction about the China virus claim. There were no new cases in the virus epicenter of Wuahn, but there were 34 new cases in the rest of the country.

For March 19, 2020:

01:15: China’s National Health Commission reports 34 new cases across the mainland, excluding Hubei province. All of the new cases were imported.

01:15: 8 new deaths in Hubei province, China. There were no new cases for the first time since the outbreak was detected. (Source)

#198 Dolce Vita on 03.20.20 at 3:41 am

I ‘dunno Garth.

It’s going to be a lot longer haul than you think. Vaccine in 12-18 months, that’s:

February 2021 to August 2021.

And then add more months to get everyone on Planet Earth inoculated, not ‘gonna happen overnight.

Crippled EU, UK & N. American economies until then. The “cured” Chinese will have no one to sell too but themselves.

———————————-

MARCH 2020 to either February 2021 or August 2021 are no longer recession durations, we’re into DEPRESSION territory…no way + growth w/everyone sitting at home collecting Universal Income from Gov Canada.

Service Sector, 70% of Cdn GDP, by in large will be decimated (well, except for Healthcare, they’ll see lots of growth).

Oil price will continue to tank, low demand, lots of supply – there’s goes our #1 export down the tubes in $ terms.

———————————-

Even if hydroxychloroquine* (malaria drug, 5 cents a pill) and azithromycin* can CURE COVID 19, so it seems, it just means you can catch it again. Good that NO more deaths, bad that hospital ICUs will end up like revolving doors of newly infected people until the vaccine comes. You know only a few 100 thousand infected so far, a few billion to go.

And again, Pandemics come in WAVES, not single shot deals.

———————————-

*A good article about it, cheesy text, but the information is good (for thinking Lefty’s):

https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/chloroquine
——————-

*For all you Righty’s that are typically functioning illiterates, the visual Coles Notes version (not as good as the above article, but enough info for you to get the gist…coloring book & crayons supplied for free):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=57&v=qxciJTceSBE&feature=emb_logo
——————-

President Trump to fast track hydroxychloroquine, yesterday (heart in the right spot, subject matter clearly out of his element & looking to blame the FDA in case it doesn’t pan out):

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1240726971874770947

———

PS: liked the Bowie title today, nice.

#199 Jager on 03.20.20 at 5:04 am

Wuflu:
Over 80% of CCP virus cases undocumented in China:
Report; US firm sues China for mishandling virus
https://youtu.be/eWLBxA49daA

#200 under the radar on 03.20.20 at 5:11 am

This is the modern day 1930’s –

Debt Relief – Effectively moratoriums on rent , mortgages , Courts closed, not hearing civil cases.

Credit crisis- Dash for Cash continues , Fed nightly liquidity operations to keep credit markets alive.

Mass unemployment – duration of this virus will determine the extent of the carnage. Look for April (US) new unemployment numbers to be in the millions .

Business – For the very many , food and essential staples only . trillions of dollars lost that never gets made up. V shaped recovery doubtful to me.

#201 MF on 03.20.20 at 6:51 am

What living with the virus is like:

“I can’t put into words how different this feels than anything I’ve ever experienced before,” Anzarouth told CBC News.

‘The most incredible pain I’ve ever experienced’

“That night, his mouth and throat began to feel parched, and he struggled to breathe as he lay in bed, sleeping for no longer than 30 minutes at a time.”

This is from a fit 25 year old.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/coronavirus-patient-1.5502501

MF

#202 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.20.20 at 7:11 am

@#90 Millenial Surrealist
“2021 will be a year of incredible social change”
+++

Yes.
Boomers will be too busy rebuilding the economy to bring you your dinner in the basement……

#203 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.20.20 at 7:17 am

@ Barkingblackdog

my, my, my……. 18 posts in 2 days….
I guess i know who’s bored after 2 days of self isolation.
Perhaps we should follow your bitter whining and complaining advice of a few weeks ago and limit individual comments?

#204 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.20.20 at 7:22 am

@#163 Smoking Man

Hope all is going ok Smokey.
Good to see you posting again.

#205 MF on 03.20.20 at 7:27 am

#192 JSK on 03.20.20 at 2:04 am

I’ve been telling people this is not going away any time soon, and will be severe for a while. People are generally waking up. Last week was basically the beginning.

But I don’t think we will see what you experienced in Russia. Think more along the lines of 1918 Spanish Flu. If supply chains hold up, then we will see:

boredom, fear, economic recession, change in the nature of work, and a reset of lifestyles and financial strategies.

Real estate is kaput.

BTW, I love how Russians always catastrophize everything with “back in Russia”, and this is coming from someone who is half Russian. Been hearing it all my life!

MF

#206 Wait There on 03.20.20 at 7:29 am

Hong Kong also confirmed that the pet dog of a confirmed case tested positive for the novel coronavirus, according to Dr. Thomas Sit of the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department.

#207 Work and Tumble on 03.20.20 at 7:33 am

Home prices will start to slide, many of the people sent home this week will get letters and not be called back.
The economy was all ready sliding into a slow down and regular joe avarage into the Man for so much bad debt (BMW F150 cost Big$)

Canada is in a bubble and we all know a collapse was coming and in fact it’s here.
This will be a collapse followed buy a reset. Savers may in fact be rewarded or at least still have a place to lay there head.

#208 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.20.20 at 7:34 am

Was talking to a relative on the East Coast yesterday.
They are one of the thousands of govt “workers” ordered to stay home and work via the internet…..
Apparently the govt servers cant handle thousands of govt workers online at the same time….so they have been instructed to “only work for 30 minutes and then get off for an hour then log back in….”
The problem?
Once the workers in Ontario log on….the systems are jammed….no one can log back in.

Yeah, our brilliant govt will save us……
And if people think that the 80% of the population that will “financially” survive on the smaller govt handouts than a regular pay cheque that will …eventually ….arrive.
I have some swampland in Florida for sale.

Long term 2020 to ?
The govt will sink deeper (by the ten’s of billions of dollars) in debt and will not avoid the world wide recession.

#209 maxx on 03.20.20 at 8:02 am

Tracy, you’re a huge credit to the human race. Rock on, mama! Bravo!

#210 James on 03.20.20 at 8:06 am

We’re forever grateful for the work you do in creating and providing your insight on this blog.

#211 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 03.20.20 at 8:16 am

If no vaccine the virus will be back in October as soon as the weather chills….

#212 Tommy Douglas on 03.20.20 at 8:19 am

#163 Smoking Man on 03.19.20 at 10:27 pm

“Back to liking Roger Waters again….”

Hey Smokie. You didn’t answer my question. You mentioned you were back in Canada for treatments. Why are you back in socialist Canada for this and not in your esteemed adopted country of America? Please elaborate senor.

#213 SOS on 03.20.20 at 8:23 am

Anyone else working from home with a young toddler who has no children to play with? At this crucial stage of development? Are we supposed to ignore our children to answer work phone calls and emails? Not to mention children in domestic violence situations whose lifelines were daycare or school and time away from their parents. Oh yeah, children don’t vote.

#214 John Wayne on 03.20.20 at 8:31 am

Now listen here pilgrims, listen to the Duke’s words of wisdom in these dark days:

COWBOY UP

I was a new kid on the circuit
Wall Street dreams in my eyes
But the trade I took was plenty rank
Much to my surprise
It did a double reverse split
I landed on my head
Then an old trader limped out of the pit
Leaned over me and said

You gotta cowboy up
When your stocks tank and go down
Get right back in the saddle
As soon as they hit the ground
You heard that the tough get goin’

When the goin’ gets tough
Around here what we say is
Boy you better cowboy up

By the end of last quarter
They said I was among the best
So I proudly went to see the boss
Hopin’ he would be impressed
But he said I was through

My volatility was far too high
so he gave my job to better dressed guy
But before the first tear could fall
These words came back again

You gotta cowboy up
When your stocks tank and go down

Get right back in the saddle

As soon as they hit the ground
You heard that the tough get goin’
When the goin’ gets tough
Around here what we say is
Boy you better cowboy up

Well its not an easy lesson
To stay with the drift
But its the only way to go
Whenever you bite the dust

#215 Cto on 03.20.20 at 8:33 am

The canadian gov always panders to the highly indebted, especially real estate owners,…even speculators,…as they can fake it to be owners.
I think if the real estate community was left alone to it’s own devices, it would correct.,..but the government will go to astonishing measures before everything else to keep that asset floating! It has become GTAs primary jobs generator, Ontario has nothing else even close now…

#216 Remembrancer on 03.20.20 at 8:34 am

#204 Wait There on 03.20.20 at 7:29 am
Hong Kong also confirmed that the pet dog of a confirmed case tested positive for the novel coronavirus, according to Dr. Thomas Sit of the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department.
————————–
Got a reputable link / citation there skippy or is this simple garden variety seditious scare mongering BS?

#217 Cto on 03.20.20 at 8:36 am

Come on Garth let’s hear your opinion on what the government is going to do to assist the real estate community.
At the expense of everybody else I think they’re going to pull off Extraordinary Measures to protect this community.
That is what they do…

I expect no measures. Banks have offered a mortgage holiday but government has no role here. – Garth

#218 East Coast Life Style on 03.20.20 at 8:39 am

Before all this SHTF, almost every Canadian I know was in debt up to his eyeballs, huge mortgages, car payments, lines of credit, student loans, credit cards, you name it.

Study after study showed that Canadians couldn’t come up with $200 in an emergency. And now we’re hitting the pause button on the economy, starting with service jobs.

I hate to overstate the obvious, but most Canadians are up the creek without a paddle. And they know it. JT’s plan to defer mortgage payments and support businesses is pissing into the wind, and everyone with half a brain knows it.

The next crisis will be akin to the mid 90’s when the Chretien/Martin Liberals balanced the books by kicking the debt can to the provinces. Good luck doing that again, with debt levels like Ontari-owe and New Brunswick.

Everything the Trudeau critics have said has come true.

But Harper blah blah blah. Doesn’t matter.

Canada is FU&%ED.

This upcoming deficit will blow our credit rating all to hell.

Yes, the system is rigged and it has been since day 1, but Canadians ignorance of financial knowledge and unwillingness to cut back will be our ultimate undoing.

There aren’t enough respirators for what might be needed in Canada. If you’re an out of shape Boomer who needs diabetic socks at the best of times, now is the time to get your affairs in order.

This is the Fourth Turning, act accordingly. If your eyes aren’t open already, they will be.

#219 Left GTA on 03.20.20 at 8:52 am

@crowdedelevatorfartz

Agree – Blackdog needs to put a cork in it. Pretty much lost interest in this blog since she has been posting garbage.

#220 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.20.20 at 8:53 am

@#210 Tommy Douglas
Nice.
Kick someone when they’re down.
Do you pull the wings off live flies when you’re bored as well?

#221 Jager on 03.20.20 at 9:00 am

Digital currency coming soon to a fiat near you.

https://www.unic.ac.cy/blockchain/msc-digital-currency/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Banner&utm_campaign=MSc-Digital-Currency-Fall-2019

Within two years expect all G7 currencies to be in crypto. A parallel system at first ending in elimination of all printed cash within five years.

#222 Inadequate on 03.20.20 at 9:09 am

#141 DON on 03.19.20 at 9:14 pm

Don, you are wrong about the Hong Kong protest. It reduced the virus in HK.

The protest mobilized the population to wear mask long before any virus outbreak. Wide spread mask usage is the key difference between how Asian countries (China, Korea, Japan ) and European countries deal with this virus. In fact, citizens get arrested if found without a mask in the public in Wuhan, assuming they can get outside their apartment complex. Yes, those barricades are manned 24/7.

In addition, Chinese government essentially told the populace to avoid HK due to the protest. This greatly reduced visitors from China and the virus. Despite HK not being able to fully control its own boders (needs approval from China) it has managed rather well. During the onset of the Wuhan lock down, there were a number of private jets from China landing in HK. HK immigration officers had to go inside those jets to stamp the passenger papers so that the jets could take off for their next destination. That was when restrictions were imposed on traveller from China but not HK.

Why we don’t wear mask (even home made ones) to slow down virus spread is a real mystery.

#223 Inadequate on 03.20.20 at 9:15 am

#214 Remembrancer on 03.20.20 at 8:34 am

Actually, if you can read Chinese, the news was all over in Hong Kong. You can go on yahoo.hk and the newsprints there.

Before calling some thing as BS. Please check your ignorance.

#224 Herb on 03.20.20 at 9:16 am

“… government has no role here.” – Garth

Sure, Garth, and no way of influencing anything banks or corporations do except ride to their rescue when they hit the wall.

#225 Blog Bunny on 03.20.20 at 9:17 am

”Anyone else working from home with a young toddler who has no children to play with?”

That’s such a dumb concern. I can not think of any adult worrying about my playmates when I was growing up. They made sure instead that I was learning to help with house chores starting at 3-4 years of age. Please do not raise another snowflake.

#226 not 1st on 03.20.20 at 9:23 am

The US looks like its about to throw 10T at this thing and Canada has thrown 27B at it with a bunch of other tax deferrals.

I don’t think Trudeau and his high school team have any idea whats coming at them. I fully expect a depression in Canada.

The lack of information about this virus is just astounding. There is some community transmission. Well is that walking beside someone in the park or is it sitting on a packed GO train for 2 hours?

#227 SOS on 03.20.20 at 9:28 am

#223

My concern goes well beyond playmates. You are focusing on a small detail instead of the big picture.

#228 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 9:33 am

Post C-19 Canada will be interesting.

We have a collection of yahoos in Ottawa, no big projects on the go, a dead (murdered) resource sector, the usual exodus of manufacturing, tons of free hand outs, near half the country doesn’t pay income tax anymore, we rely on RE, consumer spending, and government jobs for an economy, and the entire $hit-show is hosed down in epic debt the likes of which we’ve never seen in this country.

After C-19, once prudent savers/investors will be climbing to their feet after getting the @$$kicking of their lives, spooked consumers will sit on their wallets, the virtually useless lunatic parade in Ottawa will spend billions more, with the regular zero results, unemployment will rise, rates fall, benefits applied for en-masse, more debt piled up across the board.

I think we’re going to push the debt pile right to the bleeding edge.

Every time I make a life/financial plan, it seems I’m tossing it over my shoulder within a year or two.

BTW, if anyone is a fan of spiced Rum and has not tried the Kraken – it’s quite good. It’s 47% too, so it’s just what the Doctor ordered for us investors right now.

#229 JB on 03.20.20 at 9:36 am

Condos? Yikes. Covid has demonstrated that living in a few hundred square feet with no outside space, connected to the earth by an airless box stuffed with other people of questionable hygiene is, well, the definition of risk. Forget social distancing with common hallways, foyers, garbage rooms, mail rooms and, yes, elevators full of sticky buttons.
………………………………………………………………..
Condos in Canada now selling as cheap petri dishes! My wife’s friend who lives in one and has now moved home to her parents house as per your exact comments. She invited my wife and I over for dinner last week before she moved and we said why don’t we meet for dinner instead. There is no way I was going into one of those elevators and into her place with all of those potential infection touch spots. There is no freakin way anyplace can keep public door handles, railings, push buttons and doors disinfected. That is when she told us she is actually considering selling and going to ground. Too late I said nobody wants one of those concrete sky-boxes. Besides the condo market has been nuked. The shiny part about bohemian living in the sky has lost its luster as people now recognize that social distancing in one of these boxes is impossible.

#230 not 1st on 03.20.20 at 9:37 am

More lack of information. To say the cases is china or Italy are high is misleading. The cases in Wuhan and Lombardy are high but the surrounding provinces is very low. We know that Lombardy has a textile industry staffed by Chinese nationals who probably flew right in from Wuhan.

Culture and geography has a lot to do with it as well. Close knit tight communities people living in close quarters with customs around human contact. Everyones grandmother from the old countries greets them with a kiss on the cheeks. High tourist counts, religious gatherings, mass transit hubs etc. We know that people in Iran worship in mosques almost daily.

We have a lot of humanity living and travelling in very close quarters to each other and far removed from the industries that allow them to live like that. I hope some people are waking up to the fact that the electricity and heat are still on and the worlds farmers are about to seed a crop to prevent a famine at the end of all this even though the hysteria has knocked 30% off their commodity prices.

#231 JB on 03.20.20 at 9:42 am

#142 Picksinh3 on 03.19.20 at 9:24 pm

Hi Garth , what’s your advise on REITs? they are down too like preferred.
Thanks

Hold. Why sell anything now? – Garth
……………………………………………………………………
I have to say since my boss tuned me into Garths words of wisdom I have learned quite a lot about the market. The most important part is the “hold” part. It was always my old nature to cut and run when the stocks started to crater. Now I wear my big boy pants and wait it out and like he says Mr market comes back.

#232 nwo on 03.20.20 at 9:45 am

RE: #199 MF on 03.20.20 at 6:51 am

This is from a fit 25 year old.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/coronavirus-patient-1.5502501

MF
———————————–
I’m pretty sure the multiple days of using molly and alcohol or whatever else didn’t help with his immune system. Pffft

nwo

#233 Sold Out on 03.20.20 at 9:50 am

Guess who cashed out before the crash?

https://fortune.com/2020/03/20/senators-burr-loeffler-sold-stock-coronavirus-threat-briefings-in-january/

It’s hard to believe these folks do not have discretionary trading accounts wherein all decisions are made by portfolio managers without a client’s knowledge or direction. Grow up. – Garth

#234 woggie woggers on 03.20.20 at 9:50 am

#152 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 9:55 pm

@#39 re: “You really think we have evidence of a God who gives a rat’s bubonic ass about humanity now or in the past?? ”

LOL….reminds of that game we played as kids where you sit in a circle and one kid whispers something into the ear of the kid next to him. The second kid in turn whispers what he heard to the next kid, and so on. The last kid in the circle repeats what he heard. Usually it has nothing to do with what the first kid actually said.”

Trump has declared that the game shall be henceforth called, “Wuhan Whispers”. The Chinese communist party exploded with over the top outrage as usual.

#235 JB on 03.20.20 at 9:51 am

#210 Tommy Douglas on 03.20.20 at 8:19 am

#163 Smoking Man on 03.19.20 at 10:27 pm

“Back to liking Roger Waters again….”

Hey Smokie. You didn’t answer my question. You mentioned you were back in Canada for treatments. Why are you back in socialist Canada for this and not in your esteemed adopted country of America? Please elaborate senor.
………………………………………………………………….
He is back because he is an alien and knew about this.
40 million people and no place to go. Boring. Besides Canadians are such great people to interact with, as long as your have two metres between them.

https://covid19.ca.gov/

who the [email protected]%k is Roger Waters?

#236 Inadequate on 03.20.20 at 9:54 am

DELETED

#237 Blackdog on 03.20.20 at 9:56 am

@#201 CF
Still obsessively counting my comments eh? Not that I want to start counting yours, but in this post so far, I think we are close to even. Perhaps you should start counting the number of comments that your BFF SA makes when you’re done counting mine. Pretty sure he writes more than I do, so that should keep your addled mind busy over the shutdown.

@#217 LeftGTA, you new around here? Big thinker like CF, eh? As so many like to say around here, if you don’t like the comments of certain posters (or too embarrassed to display your lack of critical thinking skills), scroll on by. BTW, you and stinky, just inspired me to write even more!

This blog’s squalid comment section is not intended to be a social scene nor is it provided for the amused ennui of a quarantined nation. Let’s try to talk, constructively, about unfolding events rather than our bruised feelings. – Garth

#238 the Jaguar on 03.20.20 at 9:57 am

#179 fishman on 03.20.20 at 12:04 am
‘ Our plan if things get desperate. Crawl into the back of my pickup. I’ll backup to emergency entrance at the hospital.’

Mafia! Always moving some body somewhere in the back of the truck or trunk………..

#239 Sail Away on 03.20.20 at 10:00 am

Virus schmirus. Today will be spent wading through the stock carnage, kicking aside the dead and resuscitating the wounded.

Don’t know about the rest of you, but I’ve been eating only takeout during this, adding $100 to each bill.

#240 Sold Out on 03.20.20 at 10:05 am

Guess who cashed out before the crash?

https://fortune.com/2020/03/20/senators-burr-loeffler-sold-stock-coronavirus-threat-briefings-in-january/

It’s hard to believe these folks do not have discretionary trading accounts wherein all decisions are made by portfolio managers without a client’s knowledge or direction. Grow up. – Garth

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

You’re aware that Sen. Loeffler is married to the Chairman and CEO of the NYSE?

I am. And the comment above stands. – Garth

#241 Rant on news on 03.20.20 at 10:09 am

So yesterday I took a break from the news and the stock market, spent the day in the garden, felt much better.

This morning I heard Costco not accepting refunds on TP
A man was interviewed hold $17,000 of hand sanitizer in his garage
And on salt spring island two Americans arrived on their sailboat, they were ask to self isolate on their boat by the harbour master. They walked past him saying it was all a hoax?
I think Canada will escape the worst and Americans will be worst.
A friend in Amsterdam said it’s eerie quiet.
My heart goes out to the layoffs at air canada and all,airlines
Note the statement said till end of April.
My prediction based on China we should be done middle of May, but because of drastic actions maybe middle of April.
Everyone listen to Emms advice appreciate what we have.

#242 Blackdog on 03.20.20 at 10:10 am

@Garth re: ” This blog’s squalid comment section is not intended to be a social scene nor is it provided for the amused ennui of a quarantined nation. Let’s try to talk, constructively, about unfolding events rather than our bruised feelings. – Garth”

Perhaps you should look at the actual comments I have written over the past two days. Note the ones that had everything to do with events of the last two days. The others were responses to rude, insulting comments directed towards me. Tell them to hush it up, and I will also.

#243 Blackdog on 03.20.20 at 10:14 am

ooops…I meant “note the ones that had everything to do with UNFOLDING EVENTS”.

Regardless, I will stop commenting here. Very few critical thinkers who are interesting to debate with. Most would rather insult, berate and display their sociopathic tendencies.

#244 Sail Away on 03.20.20 at 10:15 am

#226 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 9:33 am

BTW, if anyone is a fan of spiced Rum and has not tried the Kraken – it’s quite good. It’s 47% too, so it’s just what the Doctor ordered for us investors right now.

——————

The puke-iest fishing trip of my life was off Ucluelet in fine weather, after loads of Kraken the night before. Caught lots of fish and am always asked for the ‘Alaskan Fish Call’ now by my buddies (I’m originally from Alaska).

#245 oh bouy on 03.20.20 at 10:16 am

lmao, looks like you folk have been fear mongering each other all night. take a breath lol. if you can ;)

#246 Sail Away on 03.20.20 at 10:19 am

Some sage words of advice from a dog

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3Dp8oxndup1QM&ved=2ahUKEwj_hN__nqnoAhURK30KHRnNCV0QFjACegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw3fHaXgoQPXIiscoXYswvLH&cshid=1584713877924

#247 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 10:19 am

#199 MF on 03.20.20 at 6:51 am
What living with the virus is like:

This is from a fit 25 year old.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/coronavirus-patient-1.5502501

MF
__________________________________

Wow, the CBC really has degenerated into a total fear mongering tabloid. Anything goes to make a buck.

“The minute I woke up, I was drenched in a pool of sweat. I was shaking. I was so cold. My head was pounding. It was something like I’ve never experienced before,” Anzarouth said.”

It’s called being quite sick with a fever bro.

“It was the most incredible pain I’ve ever experienced … My body felt like I had been flattened.”

Good grief, what a princess…

“Still, he couldn’t stomach a slice of toast or hold himself up in the shower.”

I had a couple room mates back in College that had these exact symptoms almost every week – usually on Saturday mornings…

“The final swab for COVID-19 was an incredibly painful swab they stick far up one of your nostrils,” Anzarouth said.”

I have a 120 lb Sister in Law that just had this same test done – without all the crying.

“Four days after learning he is infected, Anzarouth is still recovering.”

Glad to see he’s going to make it through alive.

“…he is hoping his story will catch the attention of those who still don’t take the virus seriously…”

Thanks Anzarouth, totally sounds like you got the flu.

#248 walltiger on 03.20.20 at 10:20 am

#79 courious george.

do you not read?
china only delayed their response time for a week while investigating the transmission of corona virus.

here is the time line.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO5EXjFKE7U

#249 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 10:27 am

#242 Sail Away on 03.20.20 at 10:15 am
#226 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 9:33 am

BTW, if anyone is a fan of spiced Rum and has not tried the Kraken – it’s quite good. It’s 47% too, so it’s just what the Doctor ordered for us investors right now.

——————

The puke-iest fishing trip of my life was off Ucluelet in fine weather, after loads of Kraken the night before. Caught lots of fish and am always asked for the ‘Alaskan Fish Call’ now by my buddies (I’m originally from Alaska).
___

Yes, I was advised not to go to town with the stuff – even though it was hard not to after looking at my portfolio last night.

That’s awesome that you are from Alaska – going there is on my bucket list – hopefully driving, and staying for a while. I want to try for some grayling while I’m there :D

#250 BillyBob on 03.20.20 at 10:28 am

#220 Inadequate on 03.20.20 at 9:09 am

Why we don’t wear mask (even home made ones) to slow down virus spread is a real mystery.

=====================================================

It is not a mystery. It’s a cultural difference.

Setting aside medical professionals who wear specialist gear – the general public wearing masks is far more about protecting OTHERS. Simple cloth masks, even N95 provide only incremental protection from incoming virus particles to the mouth and nose, and none to the eyes.

But they do reduce the expulsion of contaminated droplets, protecting others. Extremely important given the ability for someone asymptomatic to be a spreader.

So, masks are most helpful in public if everyone is wearing one, and of very limited value to the wearers if only a few are.

Asian cultures are far more about the good of the collective. Western ones, the “rights” of the individuals. Hence you’ll see almost everyone in an Asian society wearing masks (legally mandated or not), while in Western societies the young go partying on spring break.

Recognizing the value of anything that could slow the spread and that only mass adoption is effective, in Czech Republic, in addition to vastly limiting public travel (from home ONLY to/from work, grocery store, or medical appointment), it is now mandatory to wear a mask or other face covering, even a scarf, on public transit. Textile manufactures are making them, publishing instructions on how to sew one’s own, and offering to send free material to those willing to make extra.

i would consider myself somewhat of a libertarian, but the Western foolishness of actually thinking that people will generally do the right thing or the smart thing voluntarily is going to bite back, hard. Soon.

#251 conan on 03.20.20 at 10:32 am

172 Borris Badenough on 03.19.20 at 11:03 pm

Meh, prefer Trudeau to Putin.
Biden to Trump
Boris to May
Pizza to lasagna
Wine to beer
Covid 19 to Bubonic Plague

#252 Sail Away on 03.20.20 at 10:45 am

#245 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 10:19 am

———————-

Oh, yes, it sounds horrible. Nearly field-surgery level of agony. I’d also be interested in his saga of THE PAPER CUT.
Fascinating

#253 not 1st on 03.20.20 at 10:45 am

Our scientists are so conservative and none of them want to risk their fragile egos to make some leaps of faith. Our risk prone society is holding back a lot of progress.

Here you can see the world wide cases basically targeting colder northern and drier climes. Africa and SA and SE Asia have low numbers. The virus should have been raging there before someplace like Alberta.

Well look at the countries with the highest malaria incidence and then a drug to treat malaria is in the news as a potential treatment. Answer staring these guys right in the face.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

#254 T. on 03.20.20 at 10:47 am

“never seen so many guns and ammo sold in such a short time”

Yeah I’ve been laughing at the stories of formerly “whaddya need a gun for, we need to tighten the rules” folks trying desperately to get their hands on anything and learning that you aren’t even allowed to hold one at the store without a PAL.

#255 oh bouy on 03.20.20 at 10:49 am

@#238 Sold Out on 03.20.20 at 10:05 am
Guess who cashed out before the crash?

https://fortune.com/2020/03/20/senators-burr-loeffler-sold-stock-coronavirus-threat-briefings-in-january/

It’s hard to believe these folks do not have discretionary trading accounts wherein all decisions are made by portfolio managers without a client’s knowledge or direction. Grow up. – Garth

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

You’re aware that Sen. Loeffler is married to the Chairman and CEO of the NYSE?

I am. And the comment above stands. – Garth
_______________________________________

meh, seems waay to coincidental.
3 people connected to that briefing immediately cashed out. Not that it matters, white collar criminals rarely pay the piper.

#256 Sail away on 03.20.20 at 10:56 am

#241 Blackdog on 03.20.20 at 10:14 am

Regardless, I will stop commenting here. Very few critical thinkers who are interesting to debate with. Most would rather insult, berate and display their sociopathic tendencies.

——————

Blackdog, there’s no need to leave, or to stop commenting. The range of latitude Garth allows is fairly broad. Your opinions and viewpoints will be challenged, though. Don’t take it too personally.

#257 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 10:59 am

#252 T. on 03.20.20 at 10:47 am

…that you aren’t even allowed to hold one at the store without a PAL.
___

I’ve got to get off my ass and get going on finally obtaining a PAL…

#258 Picksinh3 on 03.20.20 at 11:13 am

#142 Picksinh3 on 03.19.20 at 9:24 pm

Hi Garth , what’s your advise on REITs? they are down too like preferred.
Thanks

Hold. Why sell anything now? – Garth
……………………………………………………………………
I have to say since my boss tuned me into Garths words of wisdom I have learned quite a lot about the market. The most important part is the “hold” part. It was always my old nature to cut and run when the stocks started to crater. Now I wear my big boy pants and wait it out and like he says Mr market comes back.

Thanks Garth and JB!!

#259 45north on 03.20.20 at 11:15 am

Shared Services

We’re not going back to same old, when this thing is done in a few weeks or months or a year. By forcing the economy to commit suicide as we react to this ugly version of the flu, we’re also hastening structural change. Fewer physical banks will be a big manifestation of that. Reduced cities with regularly scheduled airline service. Way less people working in office towers. Or going to a central location anywhere. The beginning of the end of the open concept office environment.

I worked in the federal civil service for 40 years – 30 years at Agriculture Canada.

The work-from-home model corresponds to the infrastructure provided by Shared Services. People work on computers they don’t see. They connect via networks they don’t see. There is a real divide between the infrastructure and the work. Shared Services doesn’t understand the work and the people doing it don’t understand the infrastructure.

On the other hand it doesn’t matter as much. A computer server is now a commodity item – it’s cheaper, faster and more reliable than 10 years ago. Same thing for networks. Capacity can simply be ordered, in some cases like virtual servers, it can be dialled up. Now this is true, whether or not each department provides its own IT infrastructure or whether Shared Services provides it for them. One of the big justifications for Shared Services was the money it was going to save by consolidating email servers. Well it’s no big deal! An email server costs $10,000. Considering that Shared Services has an annual budget of $1.4 billion, saving a couple of servers isn’t even worth considering.

Given that the work-from-home model is going to ramp up, there may be some small advantage of having Shared Services. It can negotiate a better deal with the ISPs that connect the employees’ homes to the government servers. ISP’s like Rogers and Bell. But this kind of monolithic contract can mean that the government is locked in.

#260 Sail away on 03.20.20 at 11:20 am

#247 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 10:27 am

That’s awesome that you are from Alaska – going there is on my bucket list – hopefully driving, and staying for a while. I want to try for some grayling while I’m there :D

———————

If you’re driving, stop by either Atlin, BC or Kluane National Park in the Yukon and drop some flies or small spinners in the rivers.

Or at ice-out, the grayling really stack up in the lake at river inlets along with lake trout that are eating the grayling.

Lots of grayling. And lots of grizzlies, haha.

#261 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 11:20 am

#250 Sail Away on 03.20.20 at 10:45 am
#245 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 10:19 am

———————-

Oh, yes, it sounds horrible. Nearly field-surgery level of agony. I’d also be interested in his saga of THE PAPER CUT.
Fascinating

___

“All I did was turn the page, and I felt the most incredible pain I’ve ever felt in my entire life. I started to bleed more than I have ever bled in my entire life – the pain was incredible. Sweat poured down my forehead as I attached a bandage. I could barely stand, and Oh, the pain, the PAAAIN!”

#262 oh bouy on 03.20.20 at 11:21 am

@#250 Sail Away on 03.20.20 at 10:45 am
#245 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 10:19 am

———————-

Oh, yes, it sounds horrible. Nearly field-surgery level of agony. I’d also be interested in his saga of THE PAPER CUT.
Fascinating
____________________________

lol, the bloody definition of a snowflake.
likely just pumping his story to get the kids to stop acting like kids.

#263 oh bouy on 03.20.20 at 11:23 am

@#249 conan on 03.20.20 at 10:32 am
172 Borris Badenough on 03.19.20 at 11:03 pm

Meh, prefer Trudeau to Putin.
Biden to Trump
Boris to May
Pizza to lasagna
Wine to beer
Covid 19 to Bubonic Plague
__________________________

lasagna over pizza every damn day.

#264 ts on 03.20.20 at 11:26 am

Wow, this blog is getting way too depressing. Surely there must be a light at the end of the tunnel– some hope. What is happening is like a horror film like “Doomsday Preppers” (episode 2). I need to go listen to some good music.

#265 not 1st on 03.20.20 at 11:45 am

Very strange response to a lethal pandemic.

Schools are all empty, why aren’t they being repurposed for acute care staffed by our army and reserve forces?

Military carry masks and ventilators in their supply, why aren’t thee being brought in and set up before the numbers get bad?

BC Ferries are all parked, hotels are empty, why cant they be used?

We shut down our economy and are flirting with depression but still not making full preparations to deal with this?

#266 Alberta Nomad on 03.20.20 at 11:51 am

@#253

Officially, Sen. Loeffler does use discretionary trading accounts, FWIW

#267 Remembrancer on 03.20.20 at 11:53 am

#221 Inadequate on 03.20.20 at 9:15 am
#214 Remembrancer on 03.20.20 at 8:34 am

Actually, if you can read Chinese, the news was all over in Hong Kong. You can go on yahoo.hk and the newsprints there.
————————————–
Xie xie for the response, but still no actual evidence with a reputable link?

There was this line of discussion two-three weeks ago but anything in terms of follow up available? Based on what this article was saying, a coffee table in the same room as a Covid-19 infected person could show similar results…

https://www.hongkongfp.com/2020/02/28/traces-coronavirus-detected-hong-kong-patients-dog-no-evidence-infection-says-govt-dept/

#268 bdwy on 03.20.20 at 11:57 am

5+ MILLION jobless claims coming!!!!

canada out with 500,000 now = 5M in usa

waaay over expectations. more market volatility coming.

#269 Dharma Bum on 03.20.20 at 12:00 pm

Stay the course.

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/biggerpockets-money-podcast-116long-term-investingcovid-19-jim-collins-jlcollinsnh-com

#270 G on 03.20.20 at 12:05 pm

Hi #106 akashic record, re: team…
I joined the other team end of Jan. due to info I saw.
I would have much preferred the other side was right, and I was just being a big chicken!!!
I still ‘wish’ they would be, for all concerned.
Hopefully they find some stuff that helps the very sick a bit. And that numbers can be kept as low as possible.
I’m hoping for one of the milder cases when ever that happens?? Stay safe. Good luck.

#271 Sail away on 03.20.20 at 12:15 pm

THE PAPER CUT, continued:

“My shaking hand could barely apply Neosporin. Fumbling my phone, I just barely managed to dial 911. A tiny droplet of blood landed on the screen.

The darkness closed in..”

Enough. You have reached a new low in bad taste. – Garth

#272 Stan Brooks on 03.20.20 at 12:21 pm

Yep,

Paradigm change. No return to ‘normal’. Indebted sheeple with no savings but huge debt and liabilities, including real estate. Many people will never ever work again.

I was planning and preparing for it but expecting it in the 10-15 years time frame. This sudden acceleration will render the majority completely incapable of any rational reaction.

It is over with the normalcy bias, this is the new normal and many will not like it at all.

My advice all along has been: Farmland, self-sustainability, independence, as much as you can have any these days. And some scotch and Irish stuff. Some good fishing, fresh stuff from the garden, nice weather and sun. Clean air. Piece and quiet life.

Cheers,

#273 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 12:24 pm

#258 Sail away on 03.20.20 at 11:20 am

Lots of grayling. And lots of grizzlies, haha.
___

Yeah, I’ve though about that too – don’t want to become another Timothy Treadwell!

#274 bdwy on 03.20.20 at 12:29 pm

also could not break the addiction of buying the mighty winner *sds* on green market upswings. again and again.
got 36.01 today . 3 times yesterday.
every. single. damn. time. (grrrrr) there was a 4-7% bump within an hour.
but i let most of them get away by selling too early.
ie 38.70 right now but i got out with pennies, double dangit.
still been the easiest trade I’ve seen in years. one day it will stop working but for now it’s good

#275 Sail away on 03.20.20 at 12:29 pm

DELETED

#276 Sail away on 03.20.20 at 12:31 pm

Sorry, sent part 3 before seeing your response…

If I didn’t have bad taste, I’d have no taste at all.

#277 meslippery on 03.20.20 at 12:34 pm

74 bob on 03.19.20 at 6:13 pm

With what you wrote Garth, do you still believe a quick recovery in the cards? When retail stores, airlines, cruise ships, bank store fronts close and don’t reopen, that’s a lot of job losses.

Who is going to hire all the newly unemployed?

Never said quick. But it will be intense. – Garth
—————
Nobody
—————
Vegetable growers in the Holland March are afraid their crops won’t even get planted with the new travel restrictions denying thousands of temporary foreign workers from coming into Canada from Mexico

https://barrie.ctvnews.ca/farmers-grow-concerned-as-planting-season-looms-and-the-borders-close-1.4858892

#278 DON on 03.20.20 at 12:40 pm

#175 Sail Away on 03.19.20 at 11:13 pm

#141 DON on 03.19.20 at 9:14 pm

Trump handing out money directly to main street (if it goes through) will help get him re-elected. He will now pivot from the saviour of markets to saviour of the people. He will now have the backing to bring manufacturing of certain products back to the US of A.

—————————

Yes! The Donald is doing a fantastic job, although, admittedly, attributing him saviour status is a little much

*************

The saviour was sarcasm. But then again it is all about perception. If Trump is seen a giving out money to the masses..? Even my son, did a ‘wait what?’ when he heard that Trump was giving out money to adults and kids. Then he asked why Trump wasn’t our leader.

All about perception and if Times are rough, Grampa Trump to the rescue. All they have to do is bury that walk back the virus clip.

What’s around the next corner? That’s the real question.

#279 Yukon Elvis on 03.20.20 at 12:49 pm

#262 ts on 03.20.20 at 11:26 am
Wow, this blog is getting way too depressing. Surely there must be a light at the end of the tunnel–
………………..

There is a light at the end of the tunnel. It is an oncoming train.

#280 Hog Wild on 03.20.20 at 12:49 pm

Hah..lots more blood and puke to come. The forced selling we’ve seen is just the tip of the iceberg. “Hanging on for the turn” won’t be an option. Tax times coming and millions of seniors will roll their RRIF as dictated by CRA. More forced selling will come from everyone else who just lost their job and has one last paycheque ahead and a few dollars saved in a cheezy ETF account. The waves of selling will scythe through the spring and summer cutting down people’s lives like the grim reaper and harvesting and the casualties will fall like blades of grass. Everybody you know will be broke and promising to never invest again. Businesses like Garththat have been riding the 12 year gravy train will all by the wayside. Only when everyone ( except the pros) has been torched will there finally show some daylight. Barring some miracle showing up between now and September, were in for a depression. You’ve either got the cash to ride it out right now, or your toast. I think two years cash minimum at your maximum level of spending is too little.

#281 DON on 03.20.20 at 12:51 pm

#220 Inadequate on 03.20.20 at 9:09 am

#141 DON on 03.19.20 at 9:14 pm

Don, you are wrong about the Hong Kong protest. It reduced the virus in HK.

The protest mobilized the population to wear mask long before any virus outbreak. Wide spread mask usage is the key difference between how Asian countries (China, Korea, Japan ) and European countries deal with this virus. In fact, citizens get arrested if found without a mask in the public in Wuhan, assuming they can get outside their apartment complex. Yes, those barricades are manned 24/7.

In addition, Chinese government essentially told the populace to avoid HK due to the protest. This greatly reduced visitors from China and the virus. Despite HK not being able to fully control its own boders (needs approval from China) it has managed rather well. During the onset of the Wuhan lock down, there were a number of private jets from China landing in HK. HK immigration officers had to go inside those jets to stamp the passenger papers so that the jets could take off for their next destination. That was when restrictions were imposed on traveller from China but not HK.

Why we don’t wear mask (even home made ones) to slow down virus spread is a real mystery.
******************

With respect to Hong Kong Protest I was referring to the fact that the VIRUS came and the protests went away. Now if I were to continue that line of thinking I would be into conspiracy theories. Point being no more protests. It was only a few weeks ago that China was blaming the US/UK for involvement behind the scenes.

#282 not 1st on 03.20.20 at 12:58 pm

The social sciences finally have something to do and are looking at a population under quarantine facing a disease, job loss and economic oblivion. Its not a pretty picture.

I give it a month, by May 1 they will need the army to keep people home. That curve better be flattening fast, because the govt might not like how the public feels after coming out of isolation.

The side effects of the virus might just be worse than the disease was. Cramer is already saying there might just be big box retailers and huge chain restaurants after this.

#283 DON on 03.20.20 at 1:01 pm

#257 45north on 03.20.20 at 11:15 am

Given that the work-from-home model is going to ramp up, there may be some small advantage of having Shared Services. It can negotiate a better deal with the ISPs that connect the employees’ homes to the government servers. ISP’s like Rogers and Bell. But this kind of monolithic contract can mean that the government is locked in.
**************

And those contracts rise yearly due to an inflation charge…companies have to make more profit for their shareholders for the same services. Shared Services misses the mark when one size fits all requires future change requests. It’s the change requests that are the gravy for service providers.

#284 Marco on 03.20.20 at 1:02 pm

#191 yvr_lurker
write that to self isolated Prime Minister of Canada, that disgrace of humanity…

#285 The other Lebowski on 03.20.20 at 1:06 pm

There is a mad rush to buy energy and pipeline stock to hold over the weekend. Not sure about the wisdom there. It seems in bear markets all the surprises are to the downside. But what do I know.

#286 Ronaldo on 03.20.20 at 1:08 pm

What they are that is important to me at the moment is smart enough to have apparently eradicated the virus in their country.
—————————————————————–
I’ll drink to that Shawn.

#287 TurnerNation on 03.20.20 at 1:08 pm

Local news stations have been shut down in some areas. You only source is the singularity – global news. And they will feed you the most psychologically devastating stories until we break.
Cash is out. Why the Bank of Canada began a new digital currency next year.
Why grocers began offering online ordering and pickup last year.
Why Peloton came out 6 months ago, all new condos advertise this for their gym rooms. (Peloton is a networked exercise bike.) Locked in our prison condos.
Oh our elites are always one step ahead and set to profit.

Food delivery stocks spiked: Blue Apron in US; Good Food in TSX.
I’ll take the chip in my right hand please.

#288 DON on 03.20.20 at 1:11 pm

#246 walltiger on 03.20.20 at 10:20 am

#79 courious george.

do you not read?
china only delayed their response time for a week while investigating the transmission of corona virus.

here is the time line.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO5EXjFKE7U
******************

I watched this video and he states several times that he is starting with assumptions of when things were first reported (media etc). I’ll wait until they do they root cause analysis on. How long do you think it took to get reported in the press. Flu like symptoms appeared exactly when?

You tube??

Trying to find patient zero?

#289 DON on 03.20.20 at 1:14 pm

#277 Yukon Elvis on 03.20.20 at 12:49 pm

#262 ts on 03.20.20 at 11:26 am
Wow, this blog is getting way too depressing. Surely there must be a light at the end of the tunnel–
………………..

There is a light at the end of the tunnel. It is an oncoming train.
**********

LMAO. Nicely done Sir!

#290 Ronaldo on 03.20.20 at 1:19 pm

#164 Don

Expect to see CPP/OAS top-ups to help Boomers leave the workplace. This will accentuate the takeover of jobs by Millennials and Gen X/Y’ers. This will be to ameliorate RRSP losses incurred in the current market drop.
——————————————————————
IMO, a lot of the jobs boomers now occupy will become redundant or are already due to technology. Wishful thinking I believe.

#291 jess on 03.20.20 at 1:21 pm

49 robK on 03.19.20 at 5:25 pm 50 FreeBird on 03.19.20 at 5:25 pm

…tho we oppose
we”ll hold our nose
and vote for those

While
socializing the gain
And
privatizing the pain

those “born again” republi CONS
Are
singin’ kum ba ya

=======
btw:
up to 70m of the poorest americans maybe precluded from benefits because they didn’t pay income tax in 2018 and this is the benevolent republicans current proposal

1 trilllion is a starter package for a 23t economy for two or three months
Economist Ken Rogoff on whether the U.S. has ever experienced a crisis like this one
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/economist-ken-rogoff-on-whether-the-u-s-has-ever-experienced-a-crisis-like-this-one

#292 DON on 03.20.20 at 1:23 pm

#272 bdwy on 03.20.20 at 12:29 pm

also could not break the addiction of buying the mighty winner *sds* on green market upswings. again and again.
got 36.01 today . 3 times yesterday.
every. single. damn. time. (grrrrr) there was a 4-7% bump within an hour.
but i let most of them get away by selling too early.
ie 38.70 right now but i got out with pennies, double dangit.
still been the easiest trade I’ve seen in years. one day it will stop working but for now it’s good
************

From what I am reading, hearing and seeing. The big boys are nibbling on deals especially tech. I wouldn’t want to get caught up in that. Cheers,

Hang in there!

#293 conan on 03.20.20 at 1:24 pm

lasagna over pizza every damn day.-oh bouy

My local pizza place is awesome. Plus, there is a trick, always ask for a thicker crust. That’s pizza place code for make me a good pizza.

#294 Sail Away on 03.20.20 at 1:26 pm

Re: Dolce and vaccine

Dolce, the inoculation is readily available now and has been implemented by several hundred thousand. First, get the Corvid…

#295 Ronaldo on 03.20.20 at 1:30 pm

#200 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.20.20 at 7:11 am
@#90 Millenial Surrealist
“2021 will be a year of incredible social change”
+++

Yes.
Boomers will be too busy rebuilding the economy to bring you your dinner in the basement……
—————————————————————-
LOL, good one.

#296 DON on 03.20.20 at 1:34 pm

*************

Congrats Tracy…I remember your story. All the best…you are a role model.

#297 Attrition on 03.20.20 at 1:49 pm

On a positive note…

Demand is driven by people. Unless a significant proportion of the population succumbs–which isn’t likely based on extrapolating from here–demand will still exist.

In fact, the lockdowns etc are saving lives from car accidents, flu deaths, etc. The birthrate will likely climb in 9 months too…

This is The Great Pandemic Pause (coined it). Unlikely to be a depression–believing that is also recency bias. The world is totally different than it was then.

Banks and gov can react so much faster, and hundreds of millions of middle class consumers now exist. They never did before. Our bank accounts and investments will shrink, but our demands, wants, needs, and appetites will not.

This isn’t the end of anything. One the pandemic passes, like every one throughout history has, demand will skyrocket. Things will change, but then…they always do.

If you’re afraid of government lock downs and blanket totalitarianism lasting–“they’ll never let us out again, all small business will be gone forever, government is taking out houses, eliminating cash!!”–well, you’re emoting. Stop and think.

You forget what capitalism is and does. People and businesses adapt in ways that can’t be predicted. New markets, new services, new products pop up. It won’t stop.

This is a major disruption for sure, but it’s not unprecedented. Every other crisis felt this way at the time–911 had never happened. 2008 had never happened. SARS/MERS had never happened.

Sure, this looks like deadly virus plus government overreaction plus financial ruin. A trifecta.

But like Garth says, if you didn’t sell, you’ll bounce back. And like I said, if you did sell, well, get ready to reap.

#298 oh bouy on 03.20.20 at 2:04 pm

@#270 Stan Brooks on 03.20.20 at 12:21 pm

It is over with the normalcy bias, this is the new normal and many will not like it at all.

My advice all along has been: Farmland, self-sustainability, independence, as much as you can have any these days. And some scotch and Irish stuff. Some good fishing, fresh stuff from the garden, nice weather and sun. Clean air. Piece and quiet life.

Cheers,
_______________________________

ya but you’re a nutcase.

#299 Mattl on 03.20.20 at 2:05 pm

#213 Cto on 03.20.20 at 8:33 am
The canadian gov always panders to the highly indebted, especially real estate owners,…even speculators,…as they can fake it to be owners.
I think if the real estate community was left alone to it’s own devices, it would correct.,..but the government will go to astonishing measures before everything else to keep that asset floating! It has become GTAs primary jobs generator, Ontario has nothing else even close now…

———————————————————–

Interesting take considering there hasn’t been a homeowner bailout in Canada, that I’m aware of. This mortgage holiday is a simple deferral.

Further, large corporations are being bailed out to the tune of Trillions. 10 years after receiving trillions.

But hey, let’s argue between renters and homeowners while the large majority of the transfer happens to business that have raked in cash the past decade.

SMB’s and high income earners will be the big losers here, as always.

#300 oh bouy on 03.20.20 at 2:06 pm

@#280 not 1st on 03.20.20 at 12:58 pm
________________________________

dude, would you just stop with your nonsense

#301 Calgary on 03.20.20 at 2:08 pm

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/information_h1n1_virus_qa.htm

Trump is right – should rename H1N1 virus as the American virus; that claimed almost 500,000 lives worldwide.

#302 Canuckystania on 03.20.20 at 2:10 pm

THESE MEASURES ARE NOT SAVING LIVES! The current public policy approach is trading lives. It is saving lives otherwise taken by the coronovirus, and TRADING THOSE LIVES for the suicides, drug overdoses and violent crimes that will take lives during the economic meltdown and when unemployment peaks. Just facts that suicides and drug overdoses and violent crimes increase when there is mass unemployment and people see no hope for themselves personally. I wish governments were more transparent about this public policy trade they are making right now.

#303 DON on 03.20.20 at 2:11 pm

#288 Ronaldo on 03.20.20 at 1:19 pm

#164 Don

Expect to see CPP/OAS top-ups to help Boomers leave the workplace. This will accentuate the takeover of jobs by Millennials and Gen X/Y’ers. This will be to ameliorate RRSP losses incurred in the current market drop.
——————————————————————
IMO, a lot of the jobs boomers now occupy will become redundant or are already due to technology. Wishful thinking I believe.
**************

Good Morning Sir.

I remember thinking that same as Millen Realist. But it didn’t pan out that way as technology side swiped my line of reasoning about 10 years ago. From what I am seeing only certain jobs are being filled. I would wager that only a 1/3 of those who retire are being replaced.

Did you manage to calm your wife’s nerves? Did you resort to cutting the cable line outside? Share the tricks of the trade.

#304 Lost...but not leased on 03.20.20 at 2:36 pm

Usually there is a classic Monty Python routine that applies to a given real life situation.

Coronoavirus ?

Recall the skit whereby (2) pilots are rather bored then ROTFLMAO as they start to make a series of announcements that are meant to scare the beejeezus out of the passengers.

#305 billinbc on 03.20.20 at 2:39 pm

Good thinking….in fact the ONLY way to think about this

#306 Ronaldo on 03.20.20 at 2:45 pm

As Garth did, I decided to go to my bank yesterday morning to get some extra cash. Walked in, security guy at the door greets me, others in the bank as well. It’s 11:00 a.m. and only 2 other people in the bank.

There is a lady at a wicket obviously taking out a lot of cash. The teller has a counting machine which she uses to count the bills. She has a wad of 5’s 2 inches thick. Another of 10s and a large stack of larger bills. I overhear the teller say $20000. Lady scoops up the cash into a cloth bag. Looks from side to side then walks out. I get my $300 in 5s and 10s and head home for lunch.

I have 485 euros left over from a trip to Switzerland and I figure now is a good time to cash them in so go back to the bank, say high to the sercurity guy at the door. This time 1 person in the bank and I count 8 employees all very serious looking. I say as I’m walking in, “pretty quiet in here”. One employee replies, “it is right now, you just missed the rush”. I think to myself, “yea right”. There’s a hand sanitizer machine at the entrance to the corral which I use. I get my 720 in cad and head out.

Am thinking, “what is going on at the other banks?” so I decide to head down the highway and go to another TD branch. This time there are four employees standing at the front entrance and proceed to ask me a bunch of questions like, “Have you been out of the country recently? “Do you have any symptoms of a cold or flu?”, “What are you here for?”. I tell them I just want to get some cash, 300 dollars. She points to the ATM and I tell her I want smaller bills. She says we can help you with that and sends me off to the teller. I ask the teller that I hear that some of their branches are closing across the country. She says we are closing several in the north island and a branch in town closing tomorrow and maybe others as well.

I then walk into the mall, and this is a huge mall. Void of people except another young couple and 2 security guards. I see a shoe store and another small shop open. The others all shuttered up. The loto kiosk is open and a young man looking after it. I walk up and say to him, “having a slow day?”. He says yes, and that he has only had about 10 customers all day whereas normally hundreds. It’s 4:00 p.m.

I stop and talk to the security guard and he tells me that its been like this all day. It was a very eerie feeling to be in there like being in a deserted town. I think to myself, “what’s next?”. Maybe a rush to the banks? Dunno, but I have my emergency stash.

#307 Dolce Vita on 03.20.20 at 2:47 pm

Well, it was just a matter of time before articles like this were going to come out BUT from Goldman Sachs of all people:

“Goldman sees unprecedented stop in economic activity, with 2nd quarter GDP contracting 24%”

but they expect a “Spring Back” in Q3 of 12% with 9% unemployment…some “Spring Back” that is (well, up better than more down I suppose).

I think the long and the short of it is that nobody really knows what’s going to happen other than it’s not going to be good economically.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/goldman-sees-an-unprecedented-stop-of-economic-activity-with-2nd-quarter-gdp-contracting-by-24percent.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

—————————————–

More and more like Martial Law here in Italia.

Now you need a “autocertificazione” to travel about saying where, why, when etc. signed by the Police.

In Rome today cars on the street being stopped and drivers asked where they are going etc. and if not deemed necessary, fines, etc.

Stay INSIDE Canada, nip that virus in the bud or…

—————————————–

#291 conan

That “thing” you call “pizza” is NOT pizza. For this you must come to Napoli and eat…maybe in a few years or so when it’s safe to come here?

TIP: exiting Napoli Airport to where the taxis and busses are, there is a pizzeria at the doors…che buona!

Andrà tutto bene (I think). Ciao dall’Italia.

—————————————–

#292 Sail Away

ffs what was that all about?

#308 JB on 03.20.20 at 2:50 pm

Who would have guessed that this massive shutdown around the world is changing the level of air pollution? For the better! Of course its fake news as Tin Foilers would say, or should I say fake Republicans. Sure…………………..glad I sold all my stocks when the $hit hit the fan.

https://whyy.org/articles/unexpected-upside-to-coronavirus-shutdown-cleaner-air/

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/coronavirus-pollution.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/china-air-pollution-coronavirus-deaths-intl/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/coronavirus-shutdowns-have-unintended-climate-benefits-n1161921

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51944780

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/03/13/italy-emissions-coronavirus/?arc404=true

#309 Mattl on 03.20.20 at 2:56 pm

#258 Sail away on 03.20.20 at 11:20 am
#247 IHCTD9 on 03.20.20 at 10:27 am

That’s awesome that you are from Alaska – going there is on my bucket list – hopefully driving, and staying for a while. I want to try for some grayling while I’m there :D

———————

If you’re driving, stop by either Atlin, BC or Kluane National Park in the Yukon and drop some flies or small spinners in the rivers.

Or at ice-out, the grayling really stack up in the lake at river inlets along with lake trout that are eating the grayling.

Lots of grayling. And lots of grizzlies, haha.

—————————————————————-

We did a trip similar, from the coast up through the Yukon and Alaska. Stewart Cassiar hwy, Robert Campbell highway (windows up through Ross River yuck) with a stay at Simpson lake for lakers and pike. Camped around Atlin, pike on poppers and on the fly in Palmer lake was fun. Lots of grayling, Sockeye and dollies in Stewart lake. Hit a 30# Laker in Atlin lake.

Amazing trip and country.

#310 bdwy on 03.20.20 at 3:00 pm

wow. the exit door gets smaller and smaller.

deals abound? or CME failure a tell.

#311 Lost...but not leased on 03.20.20 at 3:14 pm

Hmm:

Canada Top Doctor, Theresa Tam… wrote a report 2006 predicting what is unfolding as we speak.

https://twitter.com/RebelNewsOnline/status/1240638333149216768

#312 DON on 03.20.20 at 3:21 pm

It will be interesting to see how President Trump utilizes this crisis in the next 6-7 months. I am sure it will be awe inspiring. 50 Wall Street billionaires against Trump, where will voters stand. I think this is a reset opportunity for Trump. He is crafty, bold and talks the peoples talk. His next steps set the stage.

I don’t have to watch Saturday Night Live anymore, just have to turn on the news and the acting is real. No actor can replace the real thing. And I am not trying to make fun of Mr. Trump it is just really good entertainment. If he pivots this issue into a ‘Wall Street vs Main Street’ main event, watch out Mr. Biden. Remember Trump is bringing the soldiers home (or at least some).

Game on!

#313 jess on 03.20.20 at 3:24 pm

returnees bringing the virus the “stick”

A Chinese Australian woman breached coronavirus quarantine in Beijing to go for a jog — and lost her job

By Nectar Gan, CNN
– preventing overseas infected cases from being imported (back to China) has become the priority among priorities in our epidemic prevention and control work,” Pan said. “Beijing is at the forefront of that defense against imported cases.”

Thursday, Beijing had reported 65 imported cases

===========
familiar sounds
Brazil’s Bolsonaro calls preventive coronavirus measures ‘hysteria’

By Shasta Darlington, CNN
==========================

#314 not 1st on 03.20.20 at 3:54 pm

#298 oh bouy on 03.20.20 at 2:06 pm
—-

Oh look another economic neophyte. Were your blocking the trains last month too?

You have no idea what makes a modern economy and what the repercussions are of stopping one like we just did. The trickle down effects will be years in the making.

#315 Barb on 03.20.20 at 4:30 pm

Dreaded going into town today for Oats.
Of all stupid things, we are out of breakfast oats.
I was the only person in the store wearing disposable gloves…Ronco examination gloves. Still wondering where H got those).

A few people stared, presumably because my only purchase was one bag of oats. Couldn’t have been my “beauty”, as I’ve now hit 70.

Gloved cashiers looked terrified, very little eye contact, and frequent stepping back from the till/debit machines.

Needing fuel on the way home, pumped (while gloved) only $25.00 worth at $1.045…where are those 77 cent deals? Not in the North Okanagan!

Relieved to be back home, I thought of my day yesterday when I babysat our 5-1/2 year old grandson for 10 hours. After lunch we went outside to play. His focus was the rock mulch at the base of our house, exclaiming every minute “look at this one!!!” An hour later, he (we) had made a pile near the front door of ALL the pretty white (quartz) rocks his pockets (and mine) could hold.

We also gathered into a pile windfall branches, ready to be tractor-transported to the burn pile.

Hours later, as this old babe’s back finally spasmed and we went back inside, the little tyke quipped “Let’s wash our hands together so there is no virus on us!”

Despite the messy house that results from caring for a little one, it was such a peaceful day.
Entirely devoid of the fear and suspicion that seems to prevail away from home.

Grandson now knows how to spell quartz.

Seeking peace and quiet?
Go find your own pile of quartz.
It works.

#316 bill hilly on 03.20.20 at 6:14 pm

@#313 Barb on 03.20.20 at 4:30 pm
Dreaded going into town today for Oats.
Of all stupid things, we are out of breakfast oats.
I was the only person in the store wearing disposable gloves…Ronco examination gloves. Still wondering where H got those).

A few people stared, presumably because my only purchase was one bag of oats. Couldn’t have been my “beauty”, as I’ve now hit 70.

Gloved cashiers looked terrified, very little eye contact, and frequent stepping back from the till/debit machines.

Needing fuel on the way home, pumped (while gloved) only $25.00 worth at $1.045…where are those 77 cent deals? Not in the North Okanagan!
________________________________

hope you didn’t contaminate yourself when you removed the gloves.

#317 oh bouy on 03.20.20 at 6:17 pm

@#312 not 1st on 03.20.20 at 3:54 pm
#298 oh bouy on 03.20.20 at 2:06 pm
—-

Oh look another economic neophyte. Were your blocking the trains last month too?

You have no idea what makes a modern economy and what the repercussions are of stopping one like we just did. The trickle down effects will be years in the making.
___________________________________

grow up son and quit spreading you BS around.
Get out of that basement.