Shock & awe

The US border closes. Oil is $24 a barrel. The dollar at 68 cents. An airline grounds. Stocks have lay another egg. Recession’s coming. Shock.

But banks announced a six-month mortgage break. The stress test fell. Variable rates dropped. The prime sunk to 2.95%. HELOCs and lines of credits got cheaper. Another interest cut is close. Tax season is delayed. And governments throw money from ‘copters. Awe.

But fixed-rate mortgages are going up. Risk is, too. US Covid cases are about to explode. Wildly. Society is shutting down. The mindless hoarding continues.

There. The news segment is over. You can come out from under the table now.

If you have financial investments, it’s too late to sell and too early to buy. The pace of the decline has been unprecedented since 1928. Not over yet. And while the snap-back will be epic once (a) US cases start to peak or (b) a therapy emerges, this is painful. Bear it. Don’t obsess about your portfolio. And don’t bail. By missing the recovery days (they’re coming, without doubt) you’ll lock in losses. Check your emotions and look at this as a unique, once-in-a-century experience. Thank Dog we have Netflix, storm chips and that booze outlets are still open.

Now, a few words about real estate.

Yeah, mortgages are cheap, listings scant and the predictions were for the birth of a vibrating new gasbag this spring. But, ain’t gonna happen. As this pathetic, yet miraculously germ-free blog told you a couple of weeks ago, housing would be a Covid casualty. And lo, it’s happened.

For example, the traditional open house is kaput. Even Re/Max agrees, and this week told all its rabid agents to back off from opening sellers’ doors to the unclean public. Others who continue to conduct showings are insisting/suggesting this:

  • Hand sanitizers for prospects to use upon entering.
  • Recommended wearing of nitrite gloves and N95 masks
  • No wrinklies present during the showing
  • Soap and disposable toweling available in washrooms
  • Plastic-covered, single-use, individual pens for docs signing
  • Feature sheets emailed so no paper is passed by hand
  • Virtual tours instead of real ones
  • Cleaning and sterilizing of homes after each showing, with special attention paid to disinfecting doorknobs, faucets and Uncle Pete if you forgot and left him upstairs.
  • Or, just don’t sell.

Sales that were cooking in February will be frozen in March. And April. And May. For example, the BC Real Estate Association today called it “an unprecedented paralysis of economic and social activity” that will keep buyers at home and keep sellers safely behind doors. Besides, interest rates are going up – even as the central bank slashes the cost of money.

Look at RBC. Besides closing a bunch of branches (announced yesterday) it just goosed mortgage costs by almost half a point, with the fiver traveling from 2.95% to 3.34%. Bond yields have actually exploded higher in recent days. The return on a 5-year Canada bond was just 0.299% ten days ago, now racing back to 1%. Incredible. This is why the Bank of Canada is busy buying up mortgage bonds to try and even out the market’s gyrations. If the financial system goes into a risk-off spasm, we’ve got 2008 all over again – with a virus and an oil crisis. Yikes.

But that’s unlikely. More probable is a recession with significant job loss, even as financial markets start to recover. It will take a long time for the oilpatch, airlines or the entire hospitality sector to get back on its feet. Some damage will be structural. A few big players and a myriad of smaller enterprises will be gone. This is why the feds are sending people money for rent and groceries, why taxes don’t have to be paid until August and why mortgage payments will be deferred for six months (but the principals will rise).

So here we are. That ‘economic shock’ the Bank of Canada spent the last five years warning about came in the matter of a few weeks. This is why a country where half the people are two hundred bucks a month from insolvency, where the savings rate is less than 1% and the debt-to-income ratio among urban homebuyers is 450%, is a dangerous place. We were told, and told again. And most listened not.

On CBC I heard a guy moan that he’s lost his job and has no money. “The government better send me some,” he said. “That’s what they’re there for.”

Oh boy. Shelter in place.

 

293 comments ↓

#1 Ryan on 03.18.20 at 3:42 pm

Boom baby, first!

#2 emm on 03.18.20 at 3:46 pm

Well, being one of those moisters with a stable job I think I’m going to be tossing money into ETF’s like mad in a few weeks at the peak. But this whole things made me realize money and things arent as important as I thought. I just think of dropping this high paying job on bay street to be back on the west coast with my folks and my friends. Hopefully this will help people prioritize people rather than things

#3 Keyboard Smasher on 03.18.20 at 3:47 pm

So the free money (0% interest) and money printer trick no longer work as today has demonstrated.

Are there any more central bank tools remaining in the toolbox?

And what kind of capitalism requires those two things in the first place? Is it time to admit defeat?

#4 Patrick on 03.18.20 at 3:49 pm

Always a pleasure to read this blog to relieve my stress and thanks Garth for letting us know that it’s still too early to buy. I’m watching CPD, XRE, XFN, XIU, XSP, XEG, XBB, XGD, ZPR etf’s. I’m guessing another 10-20% down from here so a total of 50% off from the yearly high would be close to bottom. Wonder what everyone else is thinking?

#5 yvr_lurker on 03.18.20 at 3:53 pm

and all of this in the space of 6 short weeks from something that appears out of the blue sky. Epic. Just like 9/11, even when the dust settles somewhat by the end of the summer a bit, the sentiment of all of this will linger on for many, many years. Perhaps it should be a condition of our continuing to trade with China in a major way, that they must shut down once and for all their live animal markets. Otherwise perhaps the west can provide incentives to other countries (perhaps in South America), so that China is no longer the main factory of western goods….

#6 Howard on 03.18.20 at 3:55 pm

The bond market gyrations are fascinating. Looks like we might be witnessing the dying days of a 40-year bond bull market. Interesting times. And when BOTH the bond and stock markets fall simultaneously, where are people to park their money?

As an aside, if this virus causes all the Airbnb specuvestors to go bankrupt, it will have been worth it.

#7 Yukon Elvis on 03.18.20 at 3:55 pm

How we do it in da Yukon

https://www.castanet.net/news/Salmon-Arm/279672/Wood-cutout-shows-bigfoot-with-face-mask-TP-and-Corona-beer#279672

#8 Emile on 03.18.20 at 3:56 pm

*Thank Dog we have Netflix, storm chips and that booze outlets are still open.*

Not in PEI… At least they still have Ann.

#9 mike from mtl on 03.18.20 at 3:57 pm

Well we’re already past the lows of Dec 18, oil shock 16 and halfway there to 09 lows. I guess if it goes to zero at this point who cares.

Why is the market even open? 9/11 they closed it, now it’s not like mom ‘n pop investors are trading millions per day – this is just HFT and hedge-funds at this point.

It’s pretty obvious with businesses basically shutting down and consumers holding on by their fingernails nothing good is in the works for at least months.

#10 drydock on 03.18.20 at 3:57 pm

That was funny,was wondering if you had a sense of humor.
Apparently.

#11 GrumpyPanda on 03.18.20 at 3:58 pm

I am willing to buy your shoebox condo for $1 plus you prepay 3 years of maintenance fees, taxes and legal costs. First come first serve.

#12 JB on 03.18.20 at 4:03 pm

S&P 500 down 8.1% after a circuit breaker was tripped around 1 p.m. ET today.

Dow sinks more than 2,000 points, or 9.5%. today’s tanking also erased the Dow’s gains since Trump’s inauguration on January 2017.

Nasdaq slid 7.2%.
…………………………………………………..
Guess what Donny your the prez fix it, you own it now baby. Its all yours to solve.

Bush was stuck with 9/11 he owned it.

Obama was stuck with 2008 financial crisis he owned it.

#13 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 03.18.20 at 4:04 pm

It seems like the good old u.s.a. needs a good old fashioned war of some type to advance its Technologies & Other thingies they’ve been working on.

#14 FreeBird on 03.18.20 at 4:07 pm

Clients of other banks and CUs like Alterna are SOL. For now.

#15 Left holding the bag on 03.18.20 at 4:07 pm

Don’t worry I’ll hold the bag. The bag is looking very empty and I’m starting to get scared. But don’t worry I’ll keep holding the bag and until you are all ready to fill it up again.

#16 CPD on 03.18.20 at 4:10 pm

So will preferred share ETF’s be the next to take aanother hit?

The share price of these has fallen hard already. But is the reset rate of the underlying shares gonna fall too?

Watch out below.

Yield 6.5%. Sweet. – Garth

#17 JB on 03.18.20 at 4:11 pm

After going to Walmart last week it had me thinking about the absurdity of these panic buyers. So I decided to by WMT. It’s up and so far looks OK. I’m not retiring yet but it’s a profit. Anybody need more TP?

#18 Jesse Livermore on 03.18.20 at 4:12 pm

The TSX has returned to its January 10, 2010 level. 2010 folks….The Fed’s 0 interest rates will encounter a liquidity trap. This is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park on a sunny Sunday afternoon…

#19 Lahdeedah on 03.18.20 at 4:13 pm

My friend and her husband just lost their jobs. One works from home for a health claim company (shuttered) and the other works at a restaurant. They have 2 young children. My other friend and her husband have to shut down their massage clinic. They are self-employed and have 1 young child. My sister’s husband can’t perform at venues because he is a guitarist in several Toronto bands. She is working from home via work laptop. They have 2 young children. My husband and I are working from home (so far) from work-issued laptops and the rest of the company is also working from home, all 1200 of them, thanks to the quick action of our CIO and our technology initiatives. Phone companies have added 20% volume to support the increase in video and phone conferencing. Elective medical procedures are being cancelled. This is going to be very tough.

#20 JB on 03.18.20 at 4:13 pm

Hey Smoking Guy since your back in Canada let us know where blog dogs can meet you for a beer O sage of Forex.

#21 Marco on 03.18.20 at 4:17 pm

First, mo…ckers, FIRST.

#22 Beagleface on 03.18.20 at 4:20 pm

Peace and love to Garth, Dorothy, Bandit and all the blog dogs during these interesting and challenging times.

#23 T-Rev on 03.18.20 at 4:21 pm

Why are government of canada bond prices falling so fast? With rates falling, I would expect the opposite….which happened for the first couple days of this market crash, but now bonds are plopping with everything else. I don’t want to ask the obvious question but…is Mr Market concerned about the ability of nations to survive this and repay debt? I can’t think of any other reason for Canadian bond indexes to have shed 13pct in a week. So much for the shock absorber. A post on this would be appreciated.

#24 Mark on 03.18.20 at 4:22 pm

Man we are in some trouble..
Stay calm.
Thanks for the read.

#25 Shaman Duschelle on 03.18.20 at 4:24 pm

I saved diligently and didn’t over-extend myself and I have a rainy day fund, will the government send me money too?

#26 Mike on 03.18.20 at 4:24 pm

Would appreciate someone post link to that website by some web developer which shows overpriced homes and price drop over time…..It was posted a while back here.

Thanks in advance!!

#27 Stone on 03.18.20 at 4:26 pm

Sitting at -14.68% YTD. Is that bad? Good? I think this could stop now, no?

#28 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 4:27 pm

China shown the way! Has anyone noticed?

China has had cases averaging about 20 for about the last 7 days or more. Today just 13 new cases. 86% have recovered already.

I am still not hearing this news on CBC, CNN. I hear it described as they flattened it as in sitting tight at 81,000 cases. But that is not the news. The fantastic news is they have almost no new cases! We can do this. Or at least we can make an actual try.

In China, 4.0% have died and that may edge up to 4.1%. That is still a lot! And yes there may have been many thousands of unreported cases in which the death rate is a lot lower than 4%.

China has reopened. All Apple stores now open 80% of Starbucks to re-open.

Again, China has shown the way.

If North America is to shut down then let’s do it almost completely like China. Everyone mask up and stay home for 30 to 60 days. Grocery stores, pharmacies and many other essential services exempted.

Either shut down like China or let the virus go and learn to (as it were) live with death.

Are we just going to flatten the curve with a partial shut down that extends many months or can we try a full shut-down for 30 to 45 days and see it if that works?

#29 crazyfox on 03.18.20 at 4:29 pm

:(

#30 binky barnes on 03.18.20 at 4:29 pm

Thanks for keeping your steady hand on the rudder over the past few days, Garth. Your experience, knowledge and good humour have been appreciated.

And FIRST!!??

#31 FreeBird on 03.18.20 at 4:32 pm

Native American tribe more prepared then govt. Good for them…

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/18/covidcoronavirus-native-american-lummi-nation-trailblazing-steps

#32 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 4:32 pm

New World Order?

Global problems like viruses, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and yes global warming require global solutions.

Will we emerge with much stronger global rules?

Or will nations try to retreat behind borders? Borders can stop people and goods. But, they can’t stop viruses, biological warfare, nuclear threats or certainly global warming.

The global order seems certain to change. to what, I don’t know.

#33 espressobob on 03.18.20 at 4:33 pm

This situation is what seperates investors from wanabees. Loading up on cheap asset classes might not seem to be important as this virus takes its toll.

Garth made a good point some time ago about lower prices being less risky. I agree.

A runny nose, sore throat, fever, honestly if that’s the best this bug has to offer I’m going vegan.

Not thats going to happen but still continue to be a stubborn bull.

If this proves wrong well so be it.

#34 Lefty on 03.18.20 at 4:36 pm

#3 Jesse Livermore on 03.18.20 at 4:12 pm

It’s actually back to Oct 2006 levels at this point.

Paul Martin was PM.

#35 Lambchop on 03.18.20 at 4:39 pm

The emergency aid plan includes:

A temporary boost to Canada Child Benefit payments, delivering about $2 billion in extra support.

A new Emergency Care Benefit of up to $900 biweekly, up to 15 weeks, to provide income support to workers, including the self-employed, who have to stay home and don’t qualify for paid sick leave or employment insurance. The measure could disburse up to $10 billion.

A new Emergency Support Benefit to provide up to $5 billion in support to workers who are not eligible for EI and who are facing unemployment.
A six-month, interest-free reprieve on student loan payments.

Doubling the homeless care program.

Extending the tax filing deadline to June 1.

Allowing taxpayers to defer until after Aug. 31 tax payments that are due after today and before September.

$305 million for a new Indigenous Community Support Fund to address immediate needs in First Nations, Inuit and Métis Nation communities.

_________________

I think Trump’s $2000 per person, even-steven plan sounds much more fair.
Trudeau loves giving huge breaks to whoever pays the least tax

#36 Chris in Edm on 03.18.20 at 4:40 pm

I have 3 friends in Edmonton that lost their jobs yesterday (a waitress, a dental hygienist, and a salesman). I fully expect those numbers to climb incredibly fast, and I’m expecting to be laid off in the next 2-8 weeks from my raw materials processing (not O&G) job.

#37 JSS on 03.18.20 at 4:43 pm

1) I see that Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A/.B) has been buying back their shares at a frantic pace almost daily now.

Amazing times!!!!

2) Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) only $11? Suncor (SU) for $15? Nice.

Stocks cheaper than toilet paper

#38 NUKA on 03.18.20 at 4:44 pm

Garth,.
You saved my #ss. I didn’t start saving until 2 years ago when I stumbled across your blog. I have RRSPs (etfs) which have lost a lot of value, but also $100k in cash on hand he rest on hand. I can survive a long time without a handout while hynkering down.

Thank you!!!

#39 Stone on 03.18.20 at 4:45 pm

27 Stone on 03.18.20 at 4:26 pm
Sitting at -14.68% YTD. Is that bad? Good? I think this could stop now, no?

———

Actually, it’s -16.70% YTD. My mind must have been doing some wishful thinking.

#40 FreeBird on 03.18.20 at 4:47 pm

#19 Lahdeedah on 03.18.20 at 4:13 pm
——————-
I’m on quarantine so husb is too. He’s also lucky to still work remotely with consulting but we know others like your friends who aren’t. Hopefully some took Garth’s advice a while back to avoid debt and be careful with spending (wasn’t popular) and as he’s right about built up demand for services and goods on the other side. Good massages might be in high demand after all this stress.

#41 Steven Rowlandson on 03.18.20 at 4:48 pm

Oh No!
Poop bag speculators!

The world is going nuts!

#42 The Wet One on 03.18.20 at 4:48 pm

We were also told that this kind of pandemic was coming. Since I was in university back in the early 1990’s.

And yet, here we are, caught flat footed.

Ah well.

People is dumb. What else is new.

Keep on getting those funds together for when the market bottoms out.

It will end. Eventually. There’s a lot more killing needed first. (<— line is from the movie "Fury" but apt here)

No fear people. The good times will be rolling again soon. If you thought you missed your chance to make it big in the markets in 2009, you're in luck! You got another chance in 2020 to make a mint again.

Woo hoo!!!

It's amazing how offensive so many people find that way of thinking. And that fact right there tells you why so many people are as poorly off as they are. They think that taking advantage of opportunities as a result of event is distasteful.

Me and mine and making ready to make some honest money off of this.

In the words of Warren Buffett (one of the nicest billionaires out there):

“Fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

Time to get your greed on. But smartly. The landmines are still out there. At least wait until things get as bad as they did in 2009. It's a reasonable guess (though it's just a guess still) that we will find ourselves there again, despite 11 years of economic growth and gain since then.

Remember also folks, wealth (real wealth) is the actual stuff that's out there, not the money. The money is just a symbolic marker. You can't eat gold or money ever, but bumwad (as our host calls it), land, know how, equipment, etc. will always have some value. Especially food, when you want to eat. Even oil (though it seemingly doesn't look like it right now). Money? Eh. That can evaporate in a jiffy. We've seen that show time and time and time again. The stuff will always have value (to the extent it's valuable of course. Some stuff is just worthless. Land? Never so. Even when heavily polluted it retains some value).

Let the good times roll.

#43 Penny Henny on 03.18.20 at 4:49 pm

Gas is 73 cents/l in Welland!

Man, I should’ve had a V8

Imagine gas at 73 cents and no cruise nights cause of Emergency Measures Act. Pity.

#44 Freedom First on 03.18.20 at 4:51 pm

Garth, thank you for writing your Blog with such dedication!

Everyone reading, I sincerely wish you all the best in every way in going through these challenging times.

Balance, diversity, liquidity, and no debt, ever, for any reason has been my message here for years as many of you long timers know. Times like this exemplify this. However, no matter your circumstances, please stay calm, and have faith that this too will pass!

#45 TurnerNation on 03.18.20 at 4:52 pm

Society wise: Some people say next up is this project https://id2020.org/ – seems a good time to roll it out…I mean they didn’t go to all that work for nothing.
I do get the feeling we are in Phase 1 so far.

#46 Jesse Livermore on 03.18.20 at 4:53 pm

#23 T-Rev on 03.18.20 at 4:21 pm

“Is Mr Market concerned about the ability of nations to survive this and repay debt? ”

Only those that don’t borrow in their own currency…

#47 Sail away on 03.18.20 at 4:56 pm

#42 The Wet One on 03.18.20 at 4:48 pm

——————–

Yes. The floodgates open.

#48 MF on 03.18.20 at 5:00 pm

Garth you warned about this for years.

A nation of high debt levels, going through a decade of bad monetary policy and bad fiscal policy would have a hard time absorbing any external threats.

This is one of those threats.

Like I said a few days ago, there will be long lasting effects to all this. No it’s not world war 2 thankfully, but it is a crisis that will unearth the festering after effects of the actions taken in 2009.

So this is just getting started. Nothing was really fixed in 09′. Just papered over. Like a bandaid over an arterial puncture wound.

Oh yeah, the virus. It’s also going to be getting worse before better. A bottom in the markets? My guess could be 1-2 months away, with lots of tricky up days along the way to fake everyone out.

MF

#49 To emm on 03.18.20 at 5:06 pm

To emm poster number 2 you are absolutely correct I think if anything we will rethink what’s important to us. You have wisdom beyond your years.

To poster 28 Shawn
Thanks for the Chinese stats, yes we are all so focussed, but guess what China has recovered and yes that should be headline news.
20 cases wow!

My news from Vancouver island
Grocery stores appear fine,
Still a run on TP
Gas is still $1.29
Roads are like a normal day
Bought stocks today,
Cannot sleep at night for the losses

To Garth I wish I sold a few weeks ago, my broker said hang on, and I did. Lost 15 percent.
I want to sell a stock today he said hang on, loss $1,000 on that trade. By hanging on.

Yes the markets are oversold, but like they said today in the news no one could foresee the panic.
It will be interesting how they restart the economy.

I pray your right this will be over by May/June
I think your right on that score, but what was the cost?

#50 Fred on 03.18.20 at 5:07 pm

garth you have been giving financial advice to Canadians for years

I’d like to say i’m sorry to what has happened. No one can predict a black swam event.

take care

#51 Piano_Man87 on 03.18.20 at 5:08 pm

My dad bought $10K worth of Fortis yesterday.

Today it went down 10%.

So much panic out there. I was really exasperated about all this but I’ve come to accept it. I may lose my job. But I have savings. We’ll all be okay. One way or another, we will get through this and adapt. Garth is right – just enjoy observing this once in a one hundred year global event. It will be cool to look back at in the future.

Thanks again for the blog, Garth! It’s a nice slice of sanity.

#52 OK, Doomer on 03.18.20 at 5:09 pm

My buddy works for one of the big banks. Last week they had several oil companies on life support, working hard to figure out to salvage them.

That’s all over now. The spikes are being driven in. Calling what’s going on in the oilpatch “structural problems” is like calling Pearl Harbor a “sailing regatta dispute”.

What makes matters worse is Alberta’s greenie driven oil well abandonment regs. These were designed by greenies to kill the oil industry, not protect the environment. Unless these regs are realistically and responsibly reworked the insanity will continue to ripple out to the few healthy oil companies left and drag them under.

What Mills fail to realize, mainly because they were either in grade school or diapers in 2009, is that Alberta oil stabilized and funded all of Canada, including Ontario and Quebec and saved the country from a US style implosion. No other industry had the legs to do that. Only the oilpatch could generate the thick tax dollars needed to support the whole country.

But in those days, Trudeau was busy dressing up in blackface, generally goofing off and took Alberta’s contribution for granted. Later, as a naive, stupid and ignorant PM, Trudeau took the radical greenies advice and destroyed the oilpatch. No safety net this time folks; you cut the cables yourselves.

Good luck to us all.

#53 Raging Ranter on 03.18.20 at 5:09 pm

The epidemic is still accelerating in Italy. 4207 new cases, and 475 new deaths. We’d best hope what we’re doing here is enough to avoid numbers like that.

And speaking of Italy, when did we last hear from Dolce Vita? I’d have thought he’d show up here, given that he’s likely in lock down with nothing else to do. I hope he’s OK. Dolce, give us a shout would you?

Lahdeedah, thanks for the report from the ground. Soldiers are falling everywhere. Real people with normal jobs and lives on Friday are suddenly in free fall without a net on Wednesday. There but for the grace of God I go. The 2020s are off to a hell of a start. Let’s hope for better for the rest of the decade.

#54 not 1st on 03.18.20 at 5:10 pm

Garth the interwebs are talking about an 18 month hunker down complete with curfews, rationing and travel restrictions.

There is no way the govt can carry businesses and employees that long. It will be a bust up.

Do you still have your bunker or ice cream shop? Might be good places to hide out.

#55 Oracle of Ottawa on 03.18.20 at 5:10 pm

I think people will look at this as a deal of a century for equities. Although we’re not at the bottom yet. Don’t expect the economy to roar back either. We were already heading to a recession even before the virus crises. China, Germany and Japan, the world’s 2-4 largest economies were already showing signs of weakness. Many economists had already predicted we would be in a recession this summer. The bull market was getting long in the tooth. Covid-19 just moved the date ahead.

#56 Dave on 03.18.20 at 5:11 pm

If a developer buys a lot for $1M and spends $750k on building his total cost is 1.75M. He fronts $400k and the rest is debt.

If he now sells in a depressed market for 1.2M…what happens to the debt? Does the bank not let him sell unless he coughs up the difference? Would this freeze all sales of houses that have heavy debt?

#57 MicroGX on 03.18.20 at 5:12 pm

” Oh boy” indeed.
I cannot articulate in any meaningful way how much more i look forward to your daily post! Summarizing the craziness and onslaught of activities and current events… Thank Dog for You!

#58 Ustabe on 03.18.20 at 5:12 pm

You know those masks that a certain segment feels offers them protection?

Well medical professionals who wear them get a tune up fitting/removing seminar at least once a year. They must keep this current or be removed from the jobs that require masking.

Taking the mask off properly is as important as having it on. Having it on protects you from very little, mostly it protects whoever or whatever you are working on from your emissions.

For most of the general population its a placebo, for some its more harmful than without.

source: My wife the retired vet. er. in. arian.

#59 Armpit on 03.18.20 at 5:14 pm

Petro is 68.9 at Costco in the Hammer… according to Gas Buddy

#60 Comrade on 03.18.20 at 5:16 pm

Disclosure I’m a renter.

But it seems we always get left behind as are minority voting group, no mention of rent assistance. While landlords get a break we still need to pay our rent.

#61 Deplorable Dude on 03.18.20 at 5:16 pm

Well for most people 2019 taxes have already been paid, either through payroll tax or self employed instalments, so that ‘tax deferral’ is a joke. I literally just paid my March 2020 instalment last week as well….sheeesh.

For us Sole Prop Self Employment folks who just watched our customer base vanish….we’re on our own. No bail out’s for us….unless we happen to get sick or need to look after someone else.

We’re looking at hundreds of millions of jobs vanishing worldwide.

Anyone think the Russians are still a threat?????

#62 Oakville Sucks on 03.18.20 at 5:16 pm

Canada is heading into a HUGE reality check. Bad policies and bought out politicians have come to a crossroad. A very tough road ahead for decades. Housing will be crashing down to levels unimaginable. I hope you listed to Garth along the way.

#63 You know val on 03.18.20 at 5:18 pm

Where’s the money coming from for this big Stimulus package? Are we on the hook for all this helicopter money Garth?

#64 Sydneysider on 03.18.20 at 5:18 pm

This crisis shows how fragmentation of expertise and decision-making over multiple provinces puts Canada at a disadvantage. Here in BC we hear new decisions every day from 3 levels of govt, plus Dr Bonny Henry. I don’t get any sense of a collaborative effort across levels of govt based on scientific input. (I wish Dr Henry would stop using the word “safe” as a synonym for “in peril”.)

In other news: SFU shuts down, but nobody notices because most SFU academics stay at home in normal times anyway.

#65 604Sam on 03.18.20 at 5:19 pm

Watching for AC.TO to hit 8$.

Also blog dogs- remember- WASH YOUR HANDS AND DONT TOUCH YOUR FACE!

#66 Lahdeedah on 03.18.20 at 5:21 pm

#32 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 4:32 pm

– – – – – – – – – –

Agreed. Paradigm shift is needed. A time to think about what is important.

#67 Stan Brooks on 03.18.20 at 5:25 pm

#54 not 1st on 03.18.20 at 5:10 pm
Garth the interwebs are talking about an 18 month hunker down complete with curfews, rationing and travel restrictions.

There is no way the govt can carry businesses and employees that long. It will be a bust up.

Do you still have your bunker or ice cream shop? Might be good places to hide out.

That/the economic depression is pretty much assured, but the economy won’t magically recover after that.

I was speaking about farmland and enough cash to survive for 2-3 years. Back to the land will be it after the ‘worse is over’.

No idea how the unemployed, hugely indebted sheeple intends to survive with the coming food inflation.

But make no mistake: This will be the bust of the big cities ‘sophisticated, trendy’ living.

In the meantime: job losses will be horrific and people with switch gear to frugal life with less consumption and less credit. The good old times of easy credit are gone.

#68 TurnerNation on 03.18.20 at 5:26 pm

Phase 2: USA has begun releasing some prisoners, big city police departments state they will no longer arrest for a list of certain crimes (included are personal, property ones)
Need more pressure yet for the people to Beg for a solution. Central control – all food supply will be controlled & managed & delivered by the likes Amazon, Walmart. Travel will be by permit only. And so on. Sure fits with the UN’s stated goal of “sustainability”.
All travel must be via TSLA, UBER or LYFT car in your approved range, all tracked by cell phone.
Many cities will become work-from-only for your safety. That is the push to 5G rollout and fast, no mystery there.
This is totally do able and has been slowly in the works for years. Just needed a crisis. This one appeared in time for 2021.
Social gatherings will be permitted only between screened people, a handy phone app will take care of this.

#69 Adam on 03.18.20 at 5:27 pm

“…that booze outlets are still open”

NLC just announced their closures. http://ntv.ca/nlc-liquor-stores-closed-to-the-public-starting-saturday-march-21/

#70 Old gringo on 03.18.20 at 5:28 pm

Carnage everywhere!!!

Now after all these years I understand the saying
“ beware the ides of March”.

#71 MF on 03.18.20 at 5:28 pm

#49 To emm on 03.18.20 at 5:06 pm

#72 Jay on 03.18.20 at 5:32 pm

The pent up demand for people to get out of the house and replace furniture, clothes, appliances and things they have either worn out or are sick of staring all day is going to be epic. Not to mention the massive demand of everyone wanting to take a vacation after being pent up in their houses not able to leave.

I’ve been stuck at home for 4 only days and I cant wait to get out of the place and see a sporting event again, go to Vegas, get away from the damn kids! and im not going to care how much it costs when this is all over..

#73 Adam on 03.18.20 at 5:34 pm

#3 Keyboard Smasher on 03.18.20 at 3:47 pm
So the free money (0% interest) and money printer trick no longer work as today has demonstrated.

Are there any more central bank tools remaining in the toolbox?

And what kind of capitalism requires those two things in the first place? Is it time to admit defeat?

Central banks are going to put some effort into doing something, but I’ll bet it’ll be the IMF that comes along in the end to fulfill their mission and restore some sense of normalcy (new normalcy I imagine).

#74 Penny Henny on 03.18.20 at 5:34 pm

#20 JB on 03.18.20 at 4:13 pm
Hey Smoking Guy since your back in Canada let us know where blog dogs can meet you for a beer O sage of Forex.
///////////////

Make sure to keep two metres away.
Three metres is better, he spits when he talks.

#75 Sail away on 03.18.20 at 5:36 pm

#65 604Sam on 03.18.20 at 5:19 pm

Also blog dogs- remember- WASH YOUR HANDS AND DONT TOUCH YOUR FACE!

————————-

Hmmm… [pensively stroking my beard]…

#76 Adam on 03.18.20 at 5:37 pm

#61 Deplorable Dude on 03.18.20 at 5:16 pm

Anyone think the Russians are still a threat?????

Well, since 2016 nobody knows who to believe/trust about anything anymore (fake news, media are liars, etc). The Russians didn’t create the virus (probably) but the groundwork they laid in the previous years is what’s beneath our feet during these crazy times.

#77 Sail away on 03.18.20 at 5:38 pm

And… again… remember:

Hysteria by others does not in any way signal actual danger to you.

Relax. Relax. Take a walk.

#78 oh bouy on 03.18.20 at 5:39 pm

@#28 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 4:27 pm
China shown the way! Has anyone noticed?

China has had cases averaging about 20 for about the last 7 days or more. Today just 13 new cases. 86% have recovered already.
____________________________________

on jan 14 they also said there was no evidence of human to human transmission of the virus

#79 Ralph Nader on 03.18.20 at 5:43 pm

What the Fed is really all about folks…

https://nader.org/2020/03/18/the-federal-reserve-dictatorship-runs-amok-against-savers/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-federal-reserve-dictatorship-runs-amok-against-savers

#80 Lambchop on 03.18.20 at 5:46 pm

@turnernation
@stan brooks

You guys are freaking me out. Intellectually, I know that what you’re saying is too far out there, but there’s a little scaredy part of my brain that says “but wait a minute, what if…)

It’s not as though that sort of thing hasn’t happened before.

#81 Lifexprt on 03.18.20 at 5:46 pm

LOC all ready but we are nowhere near a bottom of any kind, might be wise to nibble on the brutal days and sell on bounces. My Morningstar buddy (high up in research) claims another 25 percent is in the cards.

#82 jess on 03.18.20 at 5:46 pm

latest updates on COVID-19 research at Oxford: http://www.ox.ac.uk/coronavirus-research

saving humanity – rapid test
The project was initiated by Oxford Suzhou Centre for Advanced Research (OSCAR), a University of Oxford centre in Suzhou Industrial Park. The experiments to develop the technology were performed in the Department of Engineering Science at the University of Oxford.
http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-03-18-oxford-scientists-develop-rapid-testing-technology-covid-19

#83 Farmer Fred on 03.18.20 at 5:48 pm

#67 Stan Brooks on 03.18.20 at 5:25 pm

“I was speaking about farmland and enough cash to survive for 2-3 years. Back to the land will be it after the ‘worse is over’.”

Yes folks, Stanley became my neighbour a couple years back. He’s a good lad though he tends to get wasted on cheap scotch and then raids my chicken house….Aside from that, Stanley is ok in my books.

#84 YouKnowWho on 03.18.20 at 5:48 pm

Canadian household debt at 176.3%

Do we have a buffer to cushion this period?

I don’t think so.

This will have to be a de-leveraging of debt to something under at least 150% if we’re lucky.

US household debt went to under 100% in 2008.

Time to pay the piper debt piggies.

#85 Madd Max on 03.18.20 at 5:50 pm

#68 TurnerNation on 03.18.20 at 5:26 pm

“Phase 2: USA has begun releasing some prisoners, big city police departments state they will no longer arrest anyone…”

Time for good citizens of the US of A to put those 300 million guns to good use and patrol their own neighbourhoods if the cops won’t…

#86 Mr. Rogers on 03.18.20 at 5:52 pm

#65 604Sam on 03.18.20 at 5:19 pm

“Also blog dogs- remember- WASH YOUR HANDS AND DONT TOUCH YOUR FACE!”

Thanks Mommy!

#87 Buddha on 03.18.20 at 5:54 pm

#66 Lahdeedah on 03.18.20 at 5:21 pm
#32 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 4:32 pm

“Agreed. Paradigm shift is needed. A time to think about what is important.”

I told everyone what was important 3000 years ago. It takes something like a pandemic to reinforce my teachings…

#88 Nonplused on 03.18.20 at 5:54 pm

#69 Adam on 03.18.20 at 5:27 pm
“…that booze outlets are still open”

NLC just announced their closures. http://ntv.ca/nlc-liquor-stores-closed-to-the-public-starting-saturday-march-21/

———————-

Liquor stores to close in Newfoundland? Great, they just caused another stampede.

#89 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.18.20 at 5:55 pm

#19 Lahdeedah on 03.18.20 at 4:13 pm sez:

“My friend and her husband just lost their jobs. One works from home for a health claim company (shuttered) and the other works at a restaurant. They have 2 young children. My other friend and her husband have to shut down their massage clinic. They are self-employed and have 1 young child. My sister’s husband can’t perform at venues because he is a guitarist in several Toronto bands. She is working from home via work laptop. They have 2 young children. My husband and I are working from home (so far) from work-issued laptops and the rest of the company is also working from home, all 1200 of them, thanks to the quick action of our CIO and our technology initiatives. Phone companies have added 20% volume to support the increase in video and phone conferencing. Elective medical procedures are being cancelled. This is going to be very tough.”
——————————————————
Health care sales from home? Work in a restaurant? Massage parlors? Musicians?

People should get real jobs before they think about having kids.

#90 Oakville Rocks!! on 03.18.20 at 5:55 pm

#62 Oakville Sucks on 03.18.20 at 5:16 pm

“Housing will be crashing down to levels unimaginable. I hope you listed to Garth along the way.”

Captain Garth is now a real estate agent???

#91 Marco on 03.18.20 at 5:57 pm

#28 Shawn Allen
China also poured all that crap down your throat, too

#92 Landlord Larry on 03.18.20 at 5:58 pm

#60 Comrade on 03.18.20 at 5:16 pm

“Disclosure I’m a renter.But it seems we always get left behind as are minority voting group, no mention of rent assistance. While landlords get a break we still need to pay our rent.”

If we don’t collect our rents how do we pay our mortgage, insurance, repairs and property taxes…

#93 Feldspath on 03.18.20 at 5:58 pm

I have savings, unfortunatly I invested it. I haven’t had the heart to watch how much I lost in the last few weeks, but I assume it’s in the 30% range. I didn’t invest money I needed… as long as I have a job that is. Many people around me have lost their jobs in the recent days. You’re right Garth, it’s too late to exit now, but if I’m in a situation where I loose my job, I’ll have no choice but to dig into my investments at a massive loss after my cash savings are exhausted. I’m not gonna lament as I don’t have children yet to support. Many people will be utterly screwed. I also don’t think this will be resolved before many months. I can already imagine the headlines in the next weeks/months: “170 new cases in Vancouver, Now 4000 infected in Hamilton, Moosejaw in lockdown “. The media will feed the hysteria for many months to come.

#94 Lambchop on 03.18.20 at 5:59 pm

Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
·1h
There’ll be lots of discussion on whether a recession for the global #economy was avoidable
With both economic and financial de-leveraging flashing red, the risk now is of something worse than that
We all need to make sure that policy mistakes/market accidents don’t take us there

__________

Yikes.
Tonight’s newscast is not going to calm people down.
I expect more empty grocery shelves when I go shopping this weekend.
FWIW, local pm dealer is out of everything. Haven’t seen that before.

#95 Nonplused on 03.18.20 at 6:02 pm

Another thing Trudeau could do to help people is roll back the carbon tax. My house is still sucking up the natural gas.

It just goes to show the futility of government spending. The government does not have any money save that which they either tax, borrow, or print (printing being frowned upon by many economists). So any money they send out via these so-called measures only comes out of our own pockets down the line.

I’m still going to sign up for them though.

#96 I believe everything on television on 03.18.20 at 6:05 pm

A corporate coup.

#97 ronh on 03.18.20 at 6:06 pm

But, but, debt is an asset. How do I sell it?

#98 jess on 03.18.20 at 6:07 pm

Our grandfathers were drafted to go to war; we’re being asked to stay at home,” said Mr Di Maio.

And some math models say you will die early who wants to die early anyone?

Coronavirus has claimed 1,016 lives in Italy, officials say, but Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio says he hopes his country will be the first in Europe to get over the emergency.

Another 188 people died over 24 hours.

However, Mr Di Maio told the BBC the measures imposed in the first area of the outbreak were proving effective.

Two weeks after the first 10 towns in northern Italy were declared a “red zone” and put under lockdown, he said they had no new infections.

This then served as a model to tighten measures across the country.
“If a doctor and a nurse can work for 24 hours non-stop, we can give up leaving our own home. The huge majority of citizens are respecting the rules. Those who aren’t will face sanctions: either fines or criminal charges.”

#99 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.18.20 at 6:11 pm

Oh and by the way….some mortgage “holiday”. The interest you didn’t pay for 6 months added on to your principal at the end.

Big banks stiff the vulnerable again.

#100 Don Guillermo on 03.18.20 at 6:12 pm

#25 Shaman Duschelle on 03.18.20 at 4:24 pm
I saved diligently and didn’t over-extend myself and I have a rainy day fund, will the government send me money too?
*****************************************
Nope, you are too responsible and don’t fit into the Red, Orange and Green parties way of doing things. You will be the one paying for the irresponsibles.

#101 Rainman on 03.18.20 at 6:14 pm

Short term RE will go down, but not as much as stocks. Long term – people will be scared of stocks and even more so believe in RE. Human nature… Hey I believe there will be a huge upswing in stocks once this is all sorted and just a memory.. ahhh, but the sheeple.. nope – they will believe in housing even more than they do now and up she goes…

#102 YouKnowWho on 03.18.20 at 6:14 pm

First test of housing as human right coming up for all the amateurish landlords.

#103 MF on 03.18.20 at 6:18 pm

#42 The Wet One on 03.18.20 at 4:48 pm

Lol.

Just lol at this.

What are we going to just forgive the debt that has accumulated since 2009?

Poof! Now it’s gone. Just like magic! Yay!

Get real. More pain ahead. Nothing else to really justify any increased expansion..besides debt of course, and it can’t keep rising forever. The last ten years were basically based on debt and low rates. This is why this economy is failing so quickly.

Also, house prices are prohibitive and sucking the life out of everyone’s finances. Again, this is just beginning and will be a big shift. They will have to come down to see any meaningful rebound.

Basically, the last decade’s strategy: be taken advantage of and go in debt, ignore the total amount and hang on for dear life, get bailed out by the bank of canada, then cry yourself to sleep…will no longer work.

Without that avenue, what else is there to feed this supposed expansion you talk of?

MF

#104 Flop... on 03.18.20 at 6:19 pm

Teachable moment.

Don’t call your wife Little Corona Bear, as you are about to get intimate.

No chance of baby boom in the Flop household…

M45BC

#105 Smartalox on 03.18.20 at 6:20 pm

So the spring market in Vancouver is going to be pooched.

Somehow, throughout all the news about CoVid19, Vancouver News Radio station News1130 (part of the Rogers News Radio chain) has managed to keep a story about alterations to the Mortgage Stress Test under the ‘Latest News’ section of their website, for over a month!

Got to love that optimism!

#106 Doug t on 03.18.20 at 6:23 pm

I’m not touching any thing – investments, door knobs, toilet seats, heck even my wife

But they better hurry up with a vaccine – this is starting to look not nice

#107 sailedaway on 03.18.20 at 6:26 pm

URGENT:

Realtors are invited to come work on farms across Canada in the next few weeks.

Real work will be required. No complaining, no getting paid for walking around homes and signing photocopies.

PS: branch workers in banks, money “movers” will be asked to contribute soon to the glorious effort of Canadastan under the enlightned leadership of our coughing leader Kim El Trud the second

#108 Hamish on 03.18.20 at 6:33 pm

Well looks like there are treatments that are somewhat effective.
Will be ironic if those poor countries that have to battle malaria continually end up dodging this bullet as a result.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19-has-been-found-in-a-common-anti-malarial-drug/

#109 Oakville Rocks! on 03.18.20 at 6:34 pm

Garth, thank you for sharing Turner Investments Client Call with your blog audience. It was well worth the listen.

#110 Westerner on 03.18.20 at 6:34 pm

Garth, thanks for posting the Turner Investments Client Call, yesterday, I did listen to it, and it was helpful.

All the best to you, your family, and clients

#111 In YYC on 03.18.20 at 6:35 pm

…and responsible people like me who 1. pay a lot of tax already 2. have a paid for house or very modest mortgage 3. have investments (that are declining daily) will continue to subsidize all the others for their irresponsibility…life truly is not fair and I too should have bought a plywood palace back in the day

#112 Drinking on 03.18.20 at 6:36 pm

On the bright side, today, I received in the mail an A&W card for 10 free coffee’s, life is good! :)

#113 keith on 03.18.20 at 6:42 pm

The markets and our portfolios will not recover. The worst is coming. The communists have won.

#114 I’m stupid on 03.18.20 at 6:46 pm

I’m in the construction industry and it’s business as usual. Doug Ford said today that the labour unions want to remain open and that traded people want to continue to work. That’s total bullshit. We’re being forced to work. Some sites have 2 or 3 bathrooms for 100 people and no water or soap.

#115 not 1st on 03.18.20 at 6:47 pm

Garth I am listening to your podcast from yesterday and all great analysis but here is the rub, none of your associates or you have given this the smell test.
Does any of this make sense?

Here in lil ol Sask where there is 50 miles of open land between every person, no mass transit, no international airport etc and the entire province is shut down. Schools closed, city facilities shuttered, restaurants closed etc. Your couldn’t start a plague here if you wanted to.
I have asked some ol timers if they have ever seen anything like this before in WW2, depressions etc? Nope none can.

#116 Big Bucks on 03.18.20 at 6:48 pm

Nikkei 40,000 in 1990 and 30 years later 16,000(down 60%)

#117 vyrguy on 03.18.20 at 6:53 pm

god help us all.

“hell is coming” – Bill Ackman

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html

#118 oh bouy on 03.18.20 at 6:54 pm

@#85 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.18.20 at 6:11 pm
Oh and by the way….some mortgage “holiday”. The interest you didn’t pay for 6 months added on to your principal at the end.

Big banks stiff the vulnerable again.
________________________________

the truly vulnerable don’t have mortgages.

#119 Steve French on 03.18.20 at 6:54 pm

Hanging tough at minus 14.3% since Mid-January…

Shouldda listened to Smoking Man and gone all in with huge Forex bets…

shouldda wouldda couldda….

Steve-O

#120 Remembrancer on 03.18.20 at 6:57 pm

#8 Emile on 03.18.20 at 3:56 pm
*Thank Dog we have Netflix, storm chips and that booze outlets are still open.*

Not in PEI… At least they still have Ann.
————————————-
A well played troll Emil…

#121 Smoking Man on 03.18.20 at 6:58 pm

#74 Penny Henny on 03.18.20 at 5:34 pm
#20 JB on 03.18.20 at 4:13 pm
Hey Smoking Guy since your back in Canada let us know where blog dogs can meet you for a beer O sage of Forex.
///////////////

Make sure to keep two metres away.
Three metres is better, he spits when he talks.
…..
3 weeks when I’m done treatment.
Thinking Monarch Tavern on Clinton Street.
Right next to San Francisco Foods. Best steak sandwich in the city…

#122 John in Mtl on 03.18.20 at 7:08 pm

Well this is a weird one for certain. A Wall Street billionnaire, hard to beleive:

“…He went on to tweet that there should be no defaults, no foreclosures. In fact, he says he wants to see “a 30-day rent, interest and tax holiday for all” immediately. “The shutdown is inevitable as it is already happening, but not in a controlled fashion which is extending the economic pain and amplifying the spread of the virus,” Ackman wrote in his Twitter thread. “Please send everyone home now. With your leadership, we can end this now. The rest of the world will follow your lead. A global Spring Break will save us all.”

The story: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-billionaire-to-president-trump-send-everyone-home-now-2020-03-18?mod=MW_video_top_stories

I wonder if he’s really sincere or how much he stands to profit from this…

#123 Friedman’s Ghost on 03.18.20 at 7:11 pm

#63 Val

Helicopter money is a form of monetary (loosely used) stimulus whereby the CB believes excess money supply will ensure inflation during low interest rate environments. Believed to be better than fiscal policy because less government is better for free markets and in turn, personal liberties.

The people are on the hook, ultimately and always, with the hope that the ends (i.e. exponential economic growth) justify the means (i.e. the initial capital outlay).

There’s no such thing as a free lunch!

#124 Barb on 03.18.20 at 7:12 pm

No mention whether property tax deadline will be moved until NEXT year.

That probably shows 99.9% have mortgages (PIT).

#125 jess on 03.18.20 at 7:12 pm

-crisis-era tool to support money-market funds

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange_Stabilization_Fund

government cash reserve—the Exchange Stabilization Fund—guarantees for money-market funds
Statement from Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin on the Establishment of a Commercial Paper Funding Facility to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm944
Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). or affectionately known as the cash-for-trash

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

#126 Peak Preparedness on 03.18.20 at 7:18 pm

Well, I hate to say it but it looks like the preppers were right all along. Not so much because of the Covid virus but because of the response to it. I mean, is it really better “social distancing” to have 1000 people stand in line every morning to get into Costco and crash the toilet paper aisle than it was when people came and went in a more regular fashion? But the people who already had a bag of 36 rolls haven’t had to do that yet. Hopefully by the time they do need to get more the rush will be over and the stores deserted.

Anyway, I have some ideas for the government beyond just sending people token amounts of money to get through this.

The biggest idea I have is to suspend all financing payments and interest collection for 1 month (to start). Just put a 30 day deferment in all payments of this sort, for businesses and individuals alike. Add the missing month to the end of the payment schedule. This would apply to everything from bonds to student loans to mortgages, and especially credit cards. For example, take a car loan that has 12 months left to pay so it will be paid off in April 2021. Well, you pay nothing in April 2020 and the loan pays off in May 2021. We are talking about a complete financing holiday. This way all those closed restaurants won’t go bankrupt because they will have no financing liabilities while they are closed.

Also put a 1 month deferral on the due date on all property taxes.

Adjust the 1 month period as necessary. Once business can resume the deferrals and holidays end.

A 1 month deferral on all rent and lease payments. Lease and rent contracts automatically extend by 1 month.

Ban short selling of any and all equities and give the entities that are short 2 weeks to cover. The markets then become investor only until the holiday ends. Possibly consider a full market shutdown after the shorts have covered.

Introduce mandatory purchase limits on all groceries and toiletries. Also introduce mandatory limits on what days people can shop based on their surname. For example the school just sent out the following schedule for belongings pickup:

Monday surnames A to C
Tuesday surnames D to K
Wednesday surnames L to P
Thursday surnames Q to V
Friday surnames W to Z

These 2 measures should help with social distancing by reducing lineups and overcrowding in the stores and reduce stockpiling behavior. Once people realize there will be enough toilet paper for everyone because only so many people can go in the store on a given day and they can only buy so much, sanity might return to the toilet paper aisle.

There are probably other measures that can be taken but these would be a good start. I don’t think an effort by the government to send money to affected businesses and individuals will work, and it will be fraught with fraud. Never understand the power of people to exploit event the most dire circumstance. Instead, if we must shut the economy down for a month (or more), shut it all down, including the accrual of interest and principle. The agreed interest will be paid at the back end of the loan by an extension of the terms.

These proposals seem unthinkable, especially the ones regarding finance, but you can’t just shut down the economy and expect everyone to keep paying their loans. The shutdown needs to be comprehensive. And from a fairness point of view, if the workers of our fine land have to sit at home and earn no income for a month, our lenders can share in that burden even if it only amounts to a delay in when they get paid.

Unfortunately I don’t see these measures being implemented. Instead what is going to happen is mass bankruptcies because people and businesses have to keep servicing their debt when they cannot work or operate through no fault of their own.

#127 Flop... on 03.18.20 at 7:19 pm

Howmuch just put some new corona charts with the following paragraph enclosed…

M45BC

“We will stick to the facts as we know them and avoid undue alarmism. We’ll always use reliable sources for our data. Yes, financial markets are in turmoil, entire countries are on lockdown and governments are struggling to formulate a coherent response. But our mission remains the same: to help our readers better understand the world even as it rapidly changes.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/progression-covid19-across-the-globe

#128 Gicguy on 03.18.20 at 7:20 pm

What could possibly be the reason for Oaken Financial raising their GIC rates?

#129 I'm Alright Jack on 03.18.20 at 7:26 pm

Wow – went to Costco yesterday and it was crazy busy, but not total mayhem. Some people driving their carts like it is the start of the zombie apocalyse. (We have, I believe only 4 known cases of ‘the plague’ in all of northern BC, so I truly wonder about the sanity of people). But most people were very Canadian-like polite.

Still, some people with several Kirkland sized packages of many TP in their carts (enough for several years I’d think, unless they’re looking at their stocks regularly) and enough food for a few days – priorities, priorities. I had a good time watching it all while I waited for the roast chickens to be done (I bought one for $7.99 – they are a great deal).

Truly interesting when the bonds are dropping along with stocks now. And gold, and Bitcoin to boot. Is this the sign of the apolcalypse?

I am wondering why some large companies aren’t saying anything about stock buybacks, layoffs etc? Not defending their stock prices at all it seems, yet.

But thanks, Garth for keeping it all very entertaining and in perspective.

I’m not looking at the old portfolio just yet – expect it is down about 30%, but have lots of cash for the upcoming zombieland (can use it as TP, I suppose). Going to buy some VOO with my US dollars and VUN and VEE with the Cdn when the dust starts to settle.

We need some positive news to turn this ship around, and it’s just not there yet.

#130 Lost...but not leased on 03.18.20 at 7:27 pm

https://www.winterwatch.net/2020/03/economic-and-market-observations-in-a-fiscal-and-monetary-infested-world/

QUOTE:
Companies like Boeing used their financial reserves in the last several years to give options to their executives and then piss away $100 billion in inflated stock buy backs in the $300-400 range. This gives you a clue about why a giant stock market bubble materialized. Many companies borrowed money to do this.

#131 comrade on 03.18.20 at 7:30 pm

#92 Landlord Larry on 03.18.20 at 5:58 pm

#60 Comrade on 03.18.20 at 5:16 pm

“Disclosure I’m a renter.But it seems we always get left behind as are minority voting group, no mention of rent assistance. While landlords get a break we still need to pay our rent.”

If we don’t collect our rents how do we pay our mortgage, insurance, repairs and property taxes…

—-
The point of my post is that it is in the works to freeze mortgages for six months, delay payment and late fees on property taxes, etc. but no mention of rent assistance.
If you get a pass on your mortgage and taxes for six months, would you give your renters pass?

#132 Chelsea on 03.18.20 at 7:30 pm

Welcome to RUSSIA… now you know how they feel!

#133 jess on 03.18.20 at 7:34 pm

until the end of 2020

ECB announced a new Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme that will deploy €750 billion ($819 billion) to purchase securities to help support the European economy. The central bank said purchases will be conducted until the end of 2020 and include a variety of assets including government debt.

“The ECB will ensure that all sectors of the economy can benefit from supportive financing conditions that enable them to absorb this shock,” the central bank said in a release. “This applies equally to families, firms, banks and governments. The Governing Council will do everything necessary within its mandate.”

#134 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 7:41 pm

What of China’s Success in Defeating the Virus

#78 oh bouy on 03.18.20 at 5:39 pm responded:

@#28 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 4:27 pm
China shown the way! Has anyone noticed?

China has had cases averaging about 20 for about the last 7 days or more. Today just 13 new cases. 86% have recovered already.
____________________________________

on jan 14 they also said there was no evidence of human to human transmission of the virus

************
And #91 Marco on 03.18.20 at 5:57 pm responded:

#28 Shawn Allen
China also poured all that crap down your throat, too

******************************
Okay so we should fail to believe the official Chinese numbers because someone in China was still denying things in January? And how does “China” say something? People say things not countries.

We have an apparent virtual total eradication of the virus spread. They are down from 81,000 active cases to 8,000 active cases and we know how they did it. Rather than follow suit we should assume they are lying?

And rather than deal with the virus Marco would have us focus on the idea that China caused it. They (the whole country or just a small group?) did this on purpose? What good does focusing on the fact that the virus originated in China do? Would you blame all Chinese for that?

As far as down my throat. I don’t have the virus and I am taking pains that I and my family don’t get it. Alberta has tested I believe they said 15,000 people. The virus is here but Alberta now is doing a lot to fight it. With more testing comes more cases. But we might see an early peak and then decline in Alberta.

Focus on solutions not blame and not conspiracies. There will be time for blame later.

#135 Yukon Elvis on 03.18.20 at 7:46 pm

#129 I’m Alright Jack on 03.18.20 at 7:26 pm
Truly interesting when the bonds are dropping along with stocks now. And gold, and Bitcoin to boot. Is this the sign of the apolcalypse?
………………….
It is interesting. People have been snivelling and whining for years that the markets and housing are overvalued and that the great “recovery” was all based on debt and that a repricing of assets was overdue. Maybe this is it, maybe this is the great reset.

#136 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 7:51 pm

Good News From Italy

Jess at 98 has information that:

Two weeks after the first 10 towns in northern Italy were declared a “red zone” and put under lockdown, he said they had no new infections.

**********************************
If that is true it is fantastic news and should be blaring from CNN rather than their incessant criticism of Trump which is enough to sicken even Trump haters.

This is the first ray of good news I have heard from Italy.

If true it confirms that lock downs work and they work extremely well and in only two weeks!

#137 Yukon Elvis on 03.18.20 at 7:52 pm

#121 Smoking Man on 03.18.20 at 6:58 pm

3 weeks when I’m done treatment.
Thinking Monarch Tavern on Clinton Street.
Right next to San Francisco Foods. Best steak sandwich in the city…
………………………………………..

Best nude midget mud rasslin’ too. I remember that time u got choked out by Little Pocahontas. She was really slippery. You were seeing little space ships for a week.

#138 Todd on 03.18.20 at 7:52 pm

According to a news story on our local CTV station, the Kitchener housing market is still red hot and it is a totally great time to buy. Interest rates down don’t you know. A thesis backed up by a local realtor. No shame.

#139 oh bouy on 03.18.20 at 7:57 pm

@#134 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 7:41 pm
______________________________________

simply saying take what you hear/see from china with a grain of salt. they are adept at fibbing as clearly shown during this time.

#140 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 7:59 pm

#63 You know val on 03.18.20 at 5:18 pm

Where’s the money coming from for this big Stimulus package? Are we on the hook for all this helicopter money Garth?
——

Yes, of course.

Just add it to the 100 billion or so we didn’t have that Trudeau had already blown during the good times…

#141 To Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 8:07 pm

Well said keep up the stiff upper lip
I appreciate your posts
What I cannot seem to find is when was peak cases Till now?
Lock down was mid January we are mid March
So if that follows through we should be clear in two months mid May.
Wow!
Thanks again

#142 short horses on 03.18.20 at 8:08 pm

“On CBC I heard a guy moan that he’s lost his job and has no money. “The government better send me some,” he said. “That’s what they’re there for.””

Oh boy indeed.

Thanks for taking care of the rest of us, Uncle Garth.

#143 Kilt on 03.18.20 at 8:14 pm

#121 John in Mtl

Ackman is spot on. You shut the country down for 3-4 weeks and you are right where China and S. Korea are. Back in control. It is going to happen. Do you drag things out for 3 weeks or 3 months, before you force a shutdown?

Canada has done a shocking job to date. Keeping Airports open for far too long and having no screening at all. BC in particular has done an abysmal job. Telling people not to get tested if they only have mild symptoms. How do you make decisions on an outbreak if you don’t even have numbers. Not having testing methods and not being prepared – BC doesn’t even have protective equipment for their health care workers.
At some point these people making these decisions or failing to make decisions should be held accountable. They had over a month warning as they watched this spread. Did they really think it was going to stay in China?

Kilt.

#144 Flop... on 03.18.20 at 8:16 pm

Has there been a time like this in my lifetime?

Dunno, not the same experience for everyone.

Global financial crisis, 911 attacks, stuff like that don’t happen everyday, and that’s probably a good thing when some people’s nerves are so easily frayed.

The time that reminds the most of some of the stuff happening now, I last experienced in 1990.

When I was a first year apprentice, I went to work one day without a care in the world.

Had recently turned 16, apart from getting a zit, what did I have to worry about?

Sometime during that day the radio station started doing special radio reports as The Gulf War kicked off.

“We’re all gonna die” screamed the tradesman I was working with.

He was glued to the radio, I knew I couldn’t do much, even at that age, so I just went down the hallway of the hotel we were working on and kept on plugging away.

By lunchtime, he was hyperventilating, and said that he wanted to go home and kiss his wife and two kids goodbye.

I never got it, you can either do something about a situation, or not.

The guy took a few days off and then came back to work, probably after realizing it wasn’t a boogeyman that was going to get him, but maybe a self induced heart attack.

He was supposed to be teaching me about construction.

He ended up giving me a lesson of a different kind…

M45BC

#145 Dee on 03.18.20 at 8:31 pm

Garth, how is it that governments are adding massive stimulus while at the same time closing down most businesses. Does that make any sense? Then some of them flood oil into the market, while the world economies and markets are all going down. I thought “LEADERS” were supposed to “LEAD”? We have South Korea doing up to 10,000 virus tests a day and then isolating that person, thus we see their virus cases going down drastically. Here in Canada its near impossible to get a test and our leader thinks by closing most of our livelihoods down that this will fix everything? Close a theatre, close a bar, close th Bay, so what, people just go somewhere else and while we go somewhere else, no one is being tested. Mr Trudeau is going to destroy every business in this country and we will still have the virus.

#146 Raging Ranter on 03.18.20 at 8:34 pm

@#128gicguy, because Home Capital Group needs to attract deposits to shore up its cash position is my bet. It was a run on deposits that sunk them in 2017. I suspect they’ll be in trouble again, and may be already.

#147 What If? on 03.18.20 at 8:37 pm

Everything has been decimated there’s no place to hide. Lots of money printing to stimulate this crisis, but what if it fails to restore business as usual. Job loss, business earnings going down and stay depressed. Sure stock might come back, but when….?

Only three weeks to whip out trillions, so even if it starts coming back I’m thinking these ETF Funds will be slower than running molasses returning to there prior unit price. Individual stocks, that are below what you paid before this crisis might go back to what you paid, but not what there value was three weeks ago. I’m skeptic……this won’t end well.

#148 Drinking on 03.18.20 at 8:40 pm

Hey I live in Cowtown and pluggin these guys; they are doing a good thing! :)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/hand-sanitizer-calgary-distillery-brewer-1.5501905

#149 Suburban Bob on 03.18.20 at 8:41 pm

Here’s the timeline I see:

1-COVID less a menace by April, under control by May

2-panic subsides

3-real estate listings pop up late May and are gobbled up by people who are needy for housing in GTA

4-prices are steady, most higher, listings fewer, demand pushes ahead

5-the August tax deferral date arrives – payment day

6-the 6 month mortgage deferral arrives in September – payment day

7-items 5 and 6 expose the underlying financial fragility of too many people, leading to a weakening autumn economy and foreclosures and/or further government intervention and debt

8-major RE pullback is in full force by January 2021, values drop as defaults and bankruptcies increase

9-another whammy hits, maybe COVID 2.0 or too much govt debt, but we have one hand tied behind our back for 2021

10-a whole new reality and devaluation of real estate is in effect by fall 2021

#150 Raging Ranter on 03.18.20 at 8:42 pm

A little birdie just told me that interprovincial travel restrictions are being considered.

#151 DON on 03.18.20 at 8:43 pm

#2 emm on 03.18.20 at 3:46 pm

Well, being one of those moisters with a stable job I think I’m going to be tossing money into ETF’s like mad in a few weeks at the peak. But this whole things made me realize money and things arent as important as I thought. I just think of dropping this high paying job on bay street to be back on the west coast with my folks and my friends. Hopefully this will help people prioritize people rather than things
******
I hear yah!

I made that choice 16 years ago and moved as close as I could (back homish). One more move to make. And I never regretted leaving Vancouver (it was a blast) but…

If you are going to pull the plug…ask your current employer if you can remote work from BC…worth a try.
It may be more acceptable now, given the times. If not modify and adapt. Especially if you have some years of experience behind you.

All the best!

#152 John in Mtl on 03.18.20 at 8:47 pm

@ #143 Kilt on 03.18.20 at 8:14 pm

Ackman’s idea does make a lot of sense. Very practical problems to be worked out though, most importantly is transportation & distribution of food for 1 month. The time off will certainly calm the markets and give time to TPTB to get a workable reboot going forward. It also unfortunately gives time for all “insiders” and those **above** the governments to plan mischief at the expense of everyone else.

Worth a try I suppose.

Still, my question stands: “I wonder if he’s really sincere or how much he stands to profit from this.”

After all, he IS a WallStreeter and we all know what they’ve been good at since 2009…

#153 Cristian on 03.18.20 at 8:51 pm

Stocks, bonds, gold all falling. Cash is king.
That’s exactly why I’ve had a 12.5% allocation to cash (not real cash but the CSAV ETF) for years now.
I wish I had one dollar for each time I’ve heard or read that I should not have cash in my portfolio…

#154 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 8:54 pm

#144 Flop… on 03.18.20 at 8:16 pm

He ended up giving me a lesson of a different kind…

M45BC

——

I went back to work today after a couple days off, to the realization that I can’t discuss this virus with a couple of my co-workers anymore. Fear. Glued to the news feeds. They were fine last week, now they’re quietly having a Price is Right freak out.

We can now hang our hat on the fact that the media/www has too much influence on too many folks.

#155 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 9:04 pm

Someone asked When did China Peak

Click China at the link below and then scroll for the bar graph

Peak was early Feb through mid February roughly 3000 new per day. By end of February they were down to about 500 per day. Then First week of March around 125. Then in the past week down to 10 to 35 and not enough to register on the bar chart it seems.

No one knows how many mild cases went undetected.

Looks like it was only mid to late January when they started massive testing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

#156 not 1st on 03.18.20 at 9:05 pm

Garths podcast was illustrative. in 6 weeks of effort China with a population 3 times the US was effectively able to halt its caseload at 81,000 with the recovered quickly catching up, deaths at 2500 holding relatively steady.

Are we really to believe the US with a first world health system is going to become the walking dead zone? Not a chance. There will be a case load spike, some consternations in the market as the GDP numbers come in and then we should start to see the downside of the curve.

I predict about 50-60k cases in the US and perhaps around 1500 deaths before we get on the backside of this thing.

#157 Wkg on 03.18.20 at 9:07 pm

For what it’s worth, bill Ackerman is a world class ash hole who who has as much insight as any other mutual or hedge fund manager (watch the valeant episode on dirty Money)
Her is what I know, we are not going back to living on the land. Our modern society cannot function without our banks, our insurance companies, our utilities, drug companies, telecoms, etc. Yes , even pipelines , my millennial snowflake friends.
Reading this comment section, I think we are close to peak fear. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Wish I had a powerful Trudeau quote to throw out there, too bad he is such an airhead, and none exist

#158 D.D. Corkum on 03.18.20 at 9:08 pm

I can’t resist. I’m starting to buy now. Not rushing, but slowly tossing in some small purchases so I don’t completely miss the low.

I’ve seen some retailers lose 50% in the past month. Do you really, truly, think that these companies have lost half their entire intrinsic value because of a single virus? Really?

Sure, this is a huge short-term hit to their business and depending on the ressession’s depth it could be a sizable medium-term one. But people still need to buy clothing or household goods or whatever eventually. The pent up demand is going to be waiting eventually.

I think markets are approaching “overreaction” territory by at least a small amount.

#159 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 9:11 pm

#126 Peak Preparedness on 03.18.20 at 7:18 pm
Well, I hate to say it but it looks like the preppers were right all along. Not so much because of the Covid virus but because of the response to it.

—-

They’ve been right on the money other than describing the pandemic which drove the citizenry insane as something serious where millions die.

Now we know it don’t take anything near that much to send plenty of folks over the edge.

The Walking Dead series nailed it. It’s not the affliction you need to worry about, it’s the people.

#160 Amused on 03.18.20 at 9:13 pm

Just thought I’d respond to your query from yesterday: “Of course share values briefly crashed. Look at RBC. Almost $110 a pop in February, all the way down to $78 last Thursday (and at $92 as I write this. Did you buy?)”

No. No I did not. It crashed 10% today, of course.

It finished today at 80. I believe that is higher than 78. – Garth

#161 MPAC on 03.18.20 at 9:18 pm

@#19 I’m grateful as my employer has allowed the entire workforce to work from home – currently 90% of the employees have taken advantage of this opportunity (1800 employees in the province of Ontario).

My thoughts are with those who don’t have this privilege or who have lost their jobs.

#162 Stahom on 03.18.20 at 9:42 pm

I can’t help thinking we are living the grasshopper and ant fable in real life, savers vs “let the good times roll”. Granny, born 1904 in AB said there may be days like these, best save a bit of money. Glad I enjoyed her company and payed attention. Nothing like a depression to foster a good work ethic…have fun mils.

#163 not 1st on 03.18.20 at 9:49 pm

History of all pandemics visualized.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

#164 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 03.18.20 at 9:50 pm

Canadian contingent on the Interstate 10; 20; 30; and 40 returning to cross the 49th parallel in haste. We spotted some Quebecois and Ontario in west Texas. Y’all rushing back to the ranch a.s.a.p. Louisiana is the land of casinos but in Bossier (Shrevesport) nary a one open and all the bars and restaurants closed. Hooters not open. This is painful for tourists but a crisis for the workers without pay. Pray for us.

#165 Carpe D. on 03.18.20 at 10:00 pm

Wow … it has been a while since posting here.

Some people joke about the effect this can have. I worked in the same building as someone who tested positive.

Me .. I’m not worried. I have health issues but whatever. Some folks have health issues and are concerned. Then age – I’m worried for my parents.

Can you imagine if all the boomers + have high mortality rates. The laughter would just go away.

Investments. Well, I was in cash or bond heavy so this drop is an opp.

We need to have faith in our public health system. I think Canada has the best …

Keynesian economics is the only think that will work here. See governments throw money at the problem.

#166 Gin, Tonic and a Corona on 03.18.20 at 10:06 pm

It’s sounding like quinine, a drug used to fight malaria for around 300 years may be effective against Covid-19.

As luck would have it, gin and tonic contains quinine.

So Garth was right again; “Stay self-inebriated”.

Garth, you’re psychic! Quick what color am I thinking of? Red?? Correct!!!

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/18/malarial-drug-chloroquine-effective-against-coronavirus/

#167 TrendIsYourFriend on 03.18.20 at 10:07 pm

Market trying to find a temporary bottom.
Dust not settled yet till VIX gets back closer to the home base.
I am expecting (just blah blah, no $kin in the game yet) a bounce, Qs and SPY at support, DIA over-shooted thanks to BA and UTX.
Then, once we get the bounce, will assess what to expect next. Maybe another flush, maybe slow grind down.

#168 Blackdog on 03.18.20 at 10:12 pm

In late February, climate researchers measured a decrease of about 25 per cent in China’s CO2 emissions after the nation locked down entire cities, emptied highways, grounded airplanes, shut factories and confined millions to their homes in an effort to curb the spread of COVID-19.

“We don’t want a Great Depression to be the reason for our carbon emissions drop. We want efficient and renewable energy to be the reasons so that we can continue to thrive economically,” Rob Jackson (environmental scientist at Stanford University) said.

“We can talk all we want about country by country approaches to climate change. And those are important. But look, CO2 travels everywhere, just like the virus.”

The reason governments resist similar immediate action against climate change is because environmental measures have become “politicized” and “divisive,” according to Kerry Bowman(bioethics and global health professor at University of Toronto).

The pandemic is also intrinsically linked with environmental issues, says Bowman.

There is a clear correlation forming between countries that have had significant surges in COVID-19 cases, like China, Iran, South Korea, northern Italy, and poor air quality, he says.

“It’s not that the air quality changes the nature of the virus, but it absolutely may affect people’s vulnerability to the virus [and] when they pick it up, how their body responds to it.”.

Bowman adds that the suspected source of the outbreak, thought to have come from an infected animal at a market in central Wuhan, is also being linked to climate related causes.

“You have all these stressed species, many of which are wild, piled on top of each other, trading viruses. On top of that, environmental degradation, including climate change, is forcing more and more species into smaller and smaller areas.”

The “climate crisis” is a more significant problem than coronavirus because an illness can be cured with medication or vaccines while climate change won’t be fixed as easily, he said.

Bill McKibben (founder of climate advocacy group 350.org) says he is hopeful that this “weird and difficult moment in human history” will teach people to pay attention to scientists and take their concerns seriously.

“What they tell you isn’t convenient. They’re telling you this for a reason because they know what they’re talking about, in just the same way they say, ‘Look, you can’t keep pouring carbon into the atmosphere.'”

He notes we live in a “very physical world” and the outbreak is a reminder of how easy it is to forget that we “spend our lives staring at screens” and living in “bubbles.”

“There’s no way, despite the best efforts of President Trump, to spin a microbe or to persuade a virus to compromise, anymore than there is to politicize a CO2 molecule. So maybe this will remind us to respect the physical nature of the world and the limits that it imposes.”

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-march-12-2020-1.5494992/covid-19-pandemic-response-temporarily-combating-co2-emissions-but-systemic-change-needed-experts-urge-1.5495303

#169 kommykim on 03.18.20 at 10:13 pm

I’m really annoyed with bond ETFs. WTF. I thought bonds were supposed to stabilize a portfolio, but these ETFs are now illiquid assets providing little cushion in bad times and are trading at a steep discount to NAV. Please Garth, tell us these bond ETFs will be tradable at a fair price before the equity ETF prices have risen again. Or do we take the loss on our bond ETFs with the philosophy that they went down less than the equity ETFs when we rebalance?

#170 Hurtin' Albertan on 03.18.20 at 10:18 pm

RRSPs and ’emergency savings’ TFSA are mostly in equities and are down significantly. Yes, it was foolish not to move the TFSA into cash back at the peak. Hindsight…. Do not want to cash out now and lock in big losses.

Still have a job but who knows for how long. Things are slowing down fast as projects go on hold.

When to dip into the line of credit tied to our mortgage at prime +0.5%? Is there a scenario where this becomes difficult or impossible to draw on down the road (i.e. liquidity crisis or banks refusing to lend or shutting down operations)? Do not want to be stuck using credit cards without the money to pay off the bills when they come.

#171 Franco on 03.18.20 at 10:23 pm

If this situation goes on long enough and no vaccine is found, we could potentially go into a depression as the economy will have the coronavirus tied to it’s neck like a mill stone and will hold back a recovery, scary times we are living in. Who knew that things would evolve to this state of affairs, I just cannot believe what is going on.

#172 TurnerNation on 03.18.20 at 10:24 pm

80 Lambchop I appreciate it :)
Possible to see my takes as fiction. .like Smoking man’s book.
Phase 3 is still coming into play then I’ll report more when less haze.
It Will involve DNA (the reason the big dogs have been collecting our for years) that much I sense.

#173 Stephen on 03.18.20 at 10:27 pm

Garth, I have faith in the markets and that this will all pass and a new normal will be established. I’m wondering however if my balls are big enough to take on an investment loan and buy into this market with a balanced portfolio. I remember regretting not doing this in 08/09. If they never recover i like everyone else will have bigger problems…what do you think?

#174 TrendIsYourFriend on 03.18.20 at 10:27 pm

Dr Copper hitting $2 tonight, below $1.9 and we will be able to buy Teck and Freeport for the price of small latte at SBUX (which could soon could be trading like a REIT, +5%yield) now that we can save and invest all that latte money.
Interesting how investor’s perspective changes over a few weeks time – WMT breaking out (record sales of toilet paper) while PLNT (Planet Fitness) gets revalued from $90 to $28.

#175 Habitt on 03.18.20 at 10:31 pm

Well here we are. The perfect storm. Record low oil prices, historic market drop, oh and the beer virus. What a coinkidink. To many variables to know but don’t smell good. Follow the free money. You ain’t getting the lions share wink wink. Thanks to all the dogs. Great and entertaining input.

#176 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.18.20 at 10:34 pm

#143 Kilt on 03.18.20 at 8:14 pm

We have 621 cases… There was a +30% increase overnight and 6% increase throughout the day…

The numbers are not doubling every day like they were afraid of…

Calm down.. breath.. go get some exercise.

#177 NoName on 03.18.20 at 10:38 pm

meme of the day

https://imgur.com/a/wMq5lXm

#178 Lost...but not leased on 03.18.20 at 10:44 pm

#159 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 9:11 pm

The Walking Dead series nailed it. It’s not the affliction you need to worry about, it’s the people.

================================

George Romeros’ Zombie movies were a parable about the average person as simply a mindless consumer…(one of them was actually set in a shopping mall)

The ultimate classic re: how our world really works is John Carpenters “THEY LIVE”.

#179 WUL on 03.18.20 at 10:44 pm

#130 Lost…but not leased on 03.18.20 at 7:27 pm

QUOTE:
Companies like Boeing used their financial reserves in the last several years to give options to their executives and then piss away $100 billion in inflated stock buy backs in the $300-400 range.

careful…careful…careful…

These manouvres were obvious years ago. Used to be illegal.

Investors and their advisors have no issue with this jiggery pokery. Don’t look for morality mixed with making money. That’s why we trade with China. Anything for a buck.

#180 Blutterfy on 03.18.20 at 10:59 pm

Gonna get worse before it gets better. The news that filtered in my grapevine this week was that by Friday all stores that aren’t grocery are going to be shut (order online only) and that the chief guy of infectious diseases in Alberta says they expect the peak (infection) to be in September- expect rolling and unrolling and more lockdowns until then and a bit after at the earliest. This is gonna be ride for sure, hold on to your hats and don’t sell the horse.

#181 Mr Canada on 03.18.20 at 11:03 pm

We are way over-reacting – the remedy for C19 will be worse than the disease….

#182 G on 03.18.20 at 11:05 pm

Did anyone else notice Ontario’s Mr. Doug Ford at new conference today, brush his forehead a few time and look a bit worm. Maybe it’s just a hot suit under the lights?
It reminded me or the Iran health minster wiping his forehead.
I hope Mr. Ford is ok.

#183 Terry on 03.18.20 at 11:15 pm

A lot of posters here think that what is going on in this world right now is a joke or a market buying opportunity in the waiting. That time has passed. You don’t go from record high stock markets to the biggest CRASH equal to 1929 in under a month and expect life to be the same in your lifetimes again! Why do you think markets are crashing! This is a huge shock even to me! I never thought something like this would ever happen. But here we are. This is it! We better adapt right now before there is no time left to prepare. It’s water, food, shelter and weapons time. We all will not come back from this one. Don’t worry about money or paying bills. It will all be gone and worthless in about another couple of months. Our utilities, electricity, natural gas, gasoline will be the next to collapse. Then it gets real for everyone as law and order breaks down. Concentrate on what you have right now and what skill sets you can trade with others to get other goods and services you may need that you don’t have but others do. Good luck everyone.

#184 G on 03.18.20 at 11:18 pm

FYI, I hope Mr Doug Ford and PM’s wife has seen the info about why a fever is good to have and not supress with drugs, unless supper high. And the info on Zinc and tonic water that might help. Don’t forget about Vitamins like D3, K2, C, folic acid…

Reducing fever, good or bad (Fever is Good helps immune system works better with, some fever.)
Dr. John Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJqSdmNNwW4&t=221s

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 39: Rapid COVID-19 Spread with Mild or No Symptoms, More on Treatment
MedCram
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AToF8O5T86s

#185 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.18.20 at 11:19 pm

#19 Lahdeedah on 03.18.20 at 4:13 pm
My friend and her husband just lost their jobs. One works from home for a health claim company (shuttered) and the other works at a restaurant. They have 2 young children. My other friend and her husband have to shut down their massage clinic. They are self-employed and have 1 young child. My sister’s husband can’t perform at venues because he is a guitarist in several Toronto bands. She is working from home via work laptop. They have 2 young children. My husband and I are working from home (so far) from work-issued laptops and the rest of the company is also working from home, all 1200 of them, thanks to the quick action of our CIO and our technology initiatives. Phone companies have added 20% volume to support the increase in video and phone conferencing. Elective medical procedures are being cancelled. This is going to be very tough.
———–
Time to get new friends.

#186 Gino Dileonardo on 03.18.20 at 11:21 pm

recession recession recession, im ok with it.
hsbc has 1.84% 5 yr variable, still too high, it should be 1.5%
and for the market, its volatile, im up, because i buy puts to protect my positions, long term puts , in the money, i dont pay much premium for them, and how do i pay for them, simple i dont pay MER fees to show me graphs and charts of why i am loosing money, and i sell covered calls and never sell less than my ACB. so I am assured that i NEVER will loose any money and only make money, sometimes a little, but lately a lot as the volatility has gone throgh the rough.
so if you want to buy discount oil and gas stocks, mining crap, or even large companies are down like 40% great go ahead, buy and hope philosophy, great investment plan there, my way is 100% downside protection while making weekly income, i cant fore tell the future, but whatever it turns out to be, i want to make sure i dont loose my hard earned money either a stay put or move foreward, never back ,sorry dont play that game.
go ahead talk to your advisor he will tell you 70% of the time markets go up, yup thats right, but what does he say about the 30% of the time that you loose money, what was that, accept volatility, risk , bla bla bla, sure its an accuse of why he didnt protect your money, why would he its not his, he gets a fee if you make not make break even etc.
just my two cents. friday at 4pm eastern is when i count how much i make every week, and every 2 days for my spy positions.

#187 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.18.20 at 11:26 pm

Regarding the picture.
Here’s a better one:
Sorry, we are out of Toilet Paper, but we have a special on Sandpaper.

#188 JacqueShellacque on 03.18.20 at 11:31 pm

The panic and overreaction are getting more dangerous each day, now with (anti) social media everyone feels they need to one-up with predictions of doom and calls for more future money to be given away immediately. What is the goal? I thought it was to ‘flatten the curve’, to help the health care system deal, not entirely stop the spread. So why carve 30 or even 40% out of our GDP for some impossible goal? We don’t stop all people from driving, even though we know there will be deaths on the roads. It’s an unfortunate fact of human nature that people die. It’s also a dangerous precedent in social and political discourse to use even death as a trump card to shoot down any questioning. Doubt is how we innoculate ourselves from bad ideas – which are far worse to society than viruses. So Tru**au, public health bureaucrats, I ask you – what is the goal, and is there any limit to other peoples’ money, livelihoods, and freedoms you won’t risk to get it?

#189 yorkville renter on 03.18.20 at 11:34 pm

I don’t understand why people are going crazy at Costco… they sell online and deliver right to your door.

Why would anyone start wrestling strangers during a pandemic for bundles of TP is beyond me.

#190 Hayden Rear on 03.18.20 at 11:37 pm

Too late to sell, too early to buy – I love it!

Credit crunch from firms not having enough cash, coupled with the Fed rate cut to 0%, along with the fact that some 15% of the economy is at risk of little to no sales means it’s way too early to buy? I think so!

Of course this means the coming fiscal stimulus will make it too late, and then too early again, and then too late, or not.

When the stock market and gold are both down, and there hasn’t been a rush into the dollar, you’ve got to wonder… Oh yeah they’re printing more dollars to ease the pressure from the cash crunch.

#191 AisA on 03.18.20 at 11:38 pm

Instead of bludgeoning the world markets and turning into savages, wouldn’t have it made more sense to just quarantine the vulnerable while 96% of society just got on with it?

#192 Dolce Vita on 03.18.20 at 11:47 pm

Well, Canada’s Civil Service today just increased to:

37.59 million.

The banks got a $50 billion bailout from BoC.

What is there not to love?

And yes, the areas around Codogno and Vo have had ZERO new cases since March 9th. They were in lockdown before the rest of Italia was, for about 2 weeks.

And, our infection rate has plateaued but not decreasing, yet about half of other EU countries and N. America in the last few days.

Recesion for sure.

And for all you Globalists:

Switch to a Service based economy they said. Manufacturing is dead, let the NICs do that.

And now, what do we have:

Shortages of ventilators, crucial medical supplies for Canada’s soon to be hard pressed health care workers (beer distillery in AB switching to disinfectant):

https://i.imgur.com/OLUkoSF.png

Reap the harvest.

You have 2 weeks to get it together Canada (if the US indicative), and it looks like today you will…best of luck, you will need it. Stay strong and stay safe:

https://i.imgur.com/HzKFvnn.png

#193 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.18.20 at 11:54 pm

#154 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 8:54 pm
#144 Flop… on 03.18.20 at 8:16 pm

He ended up giving me a lesson of a different kind…

M45BC

——

I went back to work today after a couple days off, to the realization that I can’t discuss this virus with a couple of my co-workers anymore. Fear. Glued to the news feeds. They were fine last week, now they’re quietly having a Price is Right freak out.

We can now hang our hat on the fact that the media/www has too much influence on too many folks.
————-
The sticks are no longer sanctuary.
The media is the message.
The banjo is your salvation.

#194 People Panic on 03.19.20 at 12:37 am

Conan O’Brien helps out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1GTcIS-8s0

Here is the history guy on the history of toilet paper:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVTRpTHPs3o

Long and short of it is before indoor plumbing people would use a page from the Sears catalog or Farmer’s Almanac. Another good option is the New York Times.
Such a process can still work today just don’t flush it. Instead put it in a plastic bag like you do with the cat liter.

#195 NoName on 03.19.20 at 12:43 am

more free museum tours

https://artsandculture.google.com/partner?hl=en

#196 G on 03.19.20 at 1:02 am

FYI. Don’t watch this if your anxiety is already high.
And don’t watch virus movies then either.

But they cover a lot of info that is informative IMO and some option of course.

They cover what it is, how it might act, the economy and possible implication. Things to have to help if…

I wish it wasn’t so. And hope it doesn’t get as bad as it might. Fingers crossed.

Coronavirus Update: Dr Paul Cottrell: “Prepare NOW for 18 Months!” March 18 1hr2min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6VEYzwSdZU

#197 Fortune500 on 03.19.20 at 1:07 am

The sad part is that the caller is right. The government likely WILL send him money. And save the indebted home owners, and overstretched Canadians. This is the new normal. And you must pay for it.

#198 Boy-zee on 03.19.20 at 1:28 am

Please stop and realize where we all are right now. looking at 20%-25% unemployment…Gov’t bailouts for unemployed workers so to buy food and pay bills… Defer your mortgage payments for 6 months so there is not a housing meltdown …Gov’t reducing interest rates substantially ….Stock markets are crashing in less than 3 weeks and continuing downward as people are panicking to get money ..ALL companies are trying to stay afloat but are being forced to shut down and face bankruptcy …only a small % of companies will receive bailout money because there is no where near enough money to help all of them…price of oil is a train wreck in North America ….On top of all this.. the world has a pandemic named COVID-19 with No cure and just starting to rampage across the planet …Everyone says the world is heading towards a recession but actually we are already in a DEPRESSION and it going to get a lot worst over the coming months..Prayers Required…

#199 Not So New guy on 03.19.20 at 1:29 am

It’s times like this your neighbour’s mask will be ripped off.

It’s times like this that our true character will be revealed

#200 SoggyShorts on 03.19.20 at 1:37 am

#242 Sail away on 03.18.20 at 3:45 pm
Probably not politically correct, but…

Is anyone else enjoying this?
********
Sorry, not at all. Honestly, I’m having a rough go of it.
Articles like this:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2020/03/18/what-kind-of-bear-will-it-be/#more-46666
Make me ill.(and I can’t stop reading them or this blog)

To think that 12 months from my planed retirement date my portfolio has taken a beating that it may NEVER recover from if I make living withdrawals or may take a decade+ to come back (in real inflation adjusted terms) if I delay retirement…well it @#$&$ sucks.

Perhaps you or Garth can tell me why this time will be different from 2008/2000? Or why that linked article shouldn’t worry me
.(No sarcasm here, I legit want it to be wrong)

Note: I realize that I can accelerate my recovery by working a couple more years(if work exists) and buying more on the way up, but it’s still years off my life.

#201 SoggyShorts on 03.19.20 at 2:09 am

#39 Stone on 03.18.20 at 4:45 pm
27 Stone on 03.18.20 at 4:26 pm
Sitting at -14.68% YTD. Is that bad? Good? I think this could stop now, no?

Actually, it’s -16.70% YTD. My mind must have been doing some wishful thinking.
**********

Update YTD not including dividends:
-25.46% SOGG 100/0 (30% USD)
-25.12% VEQT 100/0
-19.78% VGRO 80/20
-18.76% VBAL 60/40

#202 Michael on 03.19.20 at 2:10 am

Recovery is coming and it will be epic …. but to early to buy … ?

I think buy the banks and let it ride! (Maybe some air canada and pempina for fun)!

Thanks for the content Gareth!

#203 Spectacle on 03.19.20 at 2:15 am

Re:: “148 Drinking on 03.18.20 at 8:40 pm
Hey I live in Cowtown and pluggin these guys; they are doing a good thing! :)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/hand-sanitizer-calgary-distillery-brewer-1.5501905

———————-well…..

Just re-discovered how amazing good old Soap works. A wonder of life, from a health/medical point of view. Alcohol or hand sanitizer is fine, but You have to get the germs etc washed off of you.

In other news, saw an escalated argument at the supermarket ….over toilet paper!

Much thanks Garth, and peace & love to all the normal,blog dogs.

Ps: what are you drinking “Drinking” guy. Found an amazing Red called “Bodacious” made up here in BC. Yum

#204 Sail Away on 03.19.20 at 2:27 am

#154 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 8:54 pm
#144 Flop… on 03.18.20 at 8:16 pm

He ended up giving me a lesson of a different kind…

M45BC

————————-

I went back to work today after a couple days off, to the realization that I can’t discuss this virus with a couple of my co-workers anymore. Fear. Glued to the news feeds. They were fine last week, now they’re quietly having a Price is Right freak out.

————————-

This reaction is surprisingly common. Do people really think they’re going to live forever? There’s really no reason to be afraid of something so statistically improbable as with this flu.

I sometimes have to bite back flippancy because many situations I see as adventure or minor annoyance, lots of N Americans see as a very real threat to life. And they’re actually afraid. Have their lives been that devoid of difficulty that such little resistance, or fatalism, is present?

Many eastern Europeans and Russians are not like that at all. Some crazy mfers. Lots of fun. I’m watching the Covid over there and talking with friends. People are talking about it, but it’s more a meh situation.

#205 Crazed and a little confused on 03.19.20 at 2:41 am

Ok
I will be the first, i rebought 2 reits monday and Tuesday. And both are approximately 40 % down in 2 days. Thats crazy. I think i was smart rebuying when it dropped 10 and 20 %.
Nope you expect reits to go up once % are dropped to zero or close. This is not the case. These are warehouse and industrial generating cash alas all the businesses are closed.
I just bought a&w todsy and it still dropped 13 %. I buying this at 10 year lows and nothing is safe.
I sold apple , nividia in jan …very lucky.
This is worst than 2009 and some will never recover

#206 Yitzhak Rabin on 03.19.20 at 3:08 am

I was watching the 10 year bond yield for Greece go from sub 1% to 4% in a matter of days. That country will go bankrupt again, Italy will follow.

It got so bad that they dragged Christine Lagarde out of the tanning booth, made her pause her reverse-Michael-Jackson treatment and promise to counterfit new euros to monetize 750 billion euros of sovereign debt!

#207 Jimmy LeVine on 03.19.20 at 3:55 am

OK, Garth mentioned Preferred Share being a bang up bargain at this time in spite of being hammered down over the past two weeks.

CPD for ex: beaten bloody. But for how long? Nothing has escaped the carnage, not shares, not bonds, not gold, even CDN cash has taken a pounding.

Now, I don’t believe that anything is going to rebound quickly. But, I found an article that might interest the rate hawks. Behind the scenes rates are creeping up.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/interest-rates-are-rising-a-bad-sign-as-the-economy-slides-toward-recession.html

– and in this scenario a rate reset pref etf like CPD might in fact be a screaming buy when the puking up of babies and throwing them out with the bath water subsides.

#208 Geraldo Fernando on 03.19.20 at 4:05 am

#153 Christian, you should always have cash in your quiver, always. Cash is great when super bargains appear. Cash is great when black swans fly through the window and shit on your perfect plan. Cash in hand gives you the freedom to say Puck U when crazy crap like Corona comes around and it does, you never know when. I’m also a big believer in dividends and bond proxies aka utilities that spit out cash every month, quarter, sent annually and annually.

Cash is saying that you like your Corona cold in a coozy with a fresh lime fly stopper on a white sand beach in Cancun. Cash IS King, and zero debt is heavenly no doubt.

#209 belly rubs on 03.19.20 at 4:16 am

I had to re-read yesterday’s post because I’m antsy about my 100 dollars at fractional reserve lending institution. Thanks. I missed making 8 bucks flipping it in/out my US account by hours. Pretty volatile times. Might put another $50 in US for gambling excitement, but I think they do have some issues weighing on their dollar. Meanwhile, we’re opening up a pasture so locals can garden on some free socially distant dirt this spring.

#210 TurnerNation on 03.19.20 at 5:02 am

They have closed the liquor stores and bars maximum effect.
Medical, police and social services will become overwhelmed by people tweaking out, domestic issues and breakins .
That stupid plan I’ve always said.
They KNOW will tear each other to shreds. With enough time.

#211 Stan Brooks on 03.19.20 at 6:51 am

#84 YouKnowWho on 03.18.20 at 5:48 pm
Canadian household debt at 176.3%

Do we have a buffer to cushion this period?

I don’t think so.

This will have to be a de-leveraging of debt to something under at least 150% if we’re lucky.

US household debt went to under 100% in 2008.

Time to pay the piper debt piggies.

You are correct.

You deleverage in good economic times, when income is increasing, in expansion.

We/the ‘experts/elites/incompetents in power’ choose to ultra-uber-over leverage in normal times instead of deleverage and now we have to continue over leveraging and borrowing to even higher degree, as we are facing huge uncertainties and job losses.

This is not alarmist, it is coming from the US treasury secretary:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/18/steven-mnuchin-coronavirus-unemployment-treasury-secretary

and JP Morgan:

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/u-s-economy-will-shrink-by-14-as-coronavirus-leads-to-worst-contraction-in-50-years-jpmorgan-warns

With the oil in the sink:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/oil-prices-could-hit-the-teens-in-coming-weeks-as-markets-crater-over-coronavirus-and-price-war.html

somebody is in deep doodoo.

The BoC boss could not escape his fate, he will be remembered for his competence and integrity.

Cheers,

#212 Dolce Vita on 03.19.20 at 6:59 am

Gov Canada COVID 19 spending restrained when you compare it to:

-Italy €350 billion (CDN $549 billion, 19.6% of their GDP, 1.6X Cdn population)

-Spain €200 billion (CDN $314 billion, 16.1% of their GDP, 1.24X Cdn)

-Germany €550 billion (CDN $863 billion, 16% of their GDP, 2.2X Cdn population)

-France €300 billion (CDN $471 billion, 12.4% of their GDP, 1.8X Cdn population)

-UK £330 billion (CDN $552 billion, 14.1% of GDP, 1.8X Cdn population)

-America $1 trillion ? (CDN $1.45, 4.7% of GDP, 8.7X Cdn population)

——————————

Of course, Provincial spending hasn’t been tallied yet but even with that I suspect, Canada as a whole restrained compared to other countries in COVID 19 spending.

After it is all over, I believe Canada will be in better fiscal shape than the above.

Yes, you could argue that Canada has underspent and will spend more again, but as of today, the above remains TRUE.

——————————

On the anti-Globalization, the Germans thinking about NATIONALIZING their medical supply and equipment industry so that the entire supply chain is within Germany and made only by German workers…you can hardly blame them with the medical supply and equipment shortage at present in the World (Canada not the only ones with that problem).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-pharmaceut/germany-would-like-to-localize-supply-chains-nationalization-possible-minister-says-idUSKBN2101BH

Spain NATIONALIZED its entire healthcare system incl. Private.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-spain-nationalises-private-hospitals-emergency-covid-19-lockdown-2020-3?IR=T

——————————

Again, why I believe Canada will emerge from COVID 19 in good shape fiscally and monetarily vs. other countries.

Though I must say, the German plan is a good one (Italy looking at it as well but Italy already has ventilator, mask manufacturers, etc.).

STRATEGIC medical supplies and equipment SHOULD BE maintained by the State at any cost for times of national medical emergency. Not sure Nationalization is the way to do it, more like a subsidy or Crown Corporation better?

I don’t know which way is the best, but I hope something learned after COVID 19 is over and that strategic medical funded.

#213 Sail Away on 03.19.20 at 7:39 am

#210 TurnerNation on 03.19.20 at 5:02 am

Medical, police and social services will become overwhelmed by people tweaking out, domestic issues and breakins .

That stupid plan I’ve always said.

They KNOW will tear each other to shreds. With enough time.

———————-

Nope. People always band together and support each other in crisis. It’s our nature.

But xenophobia between groups is also our nature.

Such dichotomy.

#214 Dolce Vita on 03.19.20 at 7:43 am

One last nail Comment that Canada will emerge from COVID 19 in better fiscal and monetary shape than the EU, other developed Nations…

“Let them eat cake” ECB boss Christine Lagarde JUST tweeted (page taken right out of former boss Mario Draghi’s play book):

“there are no limits” to its commitment to the €

AND to the tune of:

an emergency €750bn (CDN $1.2 Trillion) package to ease the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

THAT is on top of EU spending in my prior Comment…STAGGERING amounts of cash to be spent in a short period of time.

I say “Let them eat cake” Le Garde since she said this about the effect of COVID 19 on EU markets (a veiled laugh & aside at the German-Italian bond spread…famous last words before COVID 19 hit the rest of the EU):

“We are not here to close [bond] spreads, there are other tools and other actors to deal with these issues.”

To think she was once in charge of the IMF (f/The Guardian, UK Lefty MSM just to annoy all you Cdn Righty’s):

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/ecb-announces-plan-to-help-eurozone-banks-withstand-coronavirus

————————————–

So ya, Canada and its BoC should be in good shape fiscally and monetarily compared to other developed Nations AND be GRATEFUL Canada for Poloz, he is not a NUTTER like “let them eat cake”, backtracking to save her skin, Legarde.

————————————–

*BTW, on my prior post I did not clarify that Canada needs to maintain a strategic medical supply & equipment MANUFACTURING BASE no matter what the cost for future National Medical Emergencies.

How to accomplish it $$$ wise I do not know, but I do know it needs to be done.

#215 QuébecEconomist on 03.19.20 at 7:56 am

I sold three weeks ago, and think now is a good time to buy. Sure the stock rebound will not happen for 6 months to a year, but I think the bottom has been hit or almost. Locking in now will avoid missing out on the rebound.

#216 MF on 03.19.20 at 8:20 am

#215 QuébecEconomist on 03.19.20 at 7

Disagree. Covid is not the problem, the system is. Expect big changes to everything. That will take time. Probably years.

Entire hospitality industry is on life support….oh yeah and debt levels are off the chart, both here and worldwide. Rates already at zero. Toast.

MF

#217 Steven Rowlandson on 03.19.20 at 8:28 am

My employer is fearful of measuring stair for customers.
For me it is no work before the 6th of April and then may be. What is worse though is no showers, no indoor meals, charge ups or wifi. I might as well be in the 19th century. Where is my dollar an acre land?
It is time for real estate prices to go to hell like every thing else. No new growth before the firestorm.
The public are effectively terrified into taking a forced break from everything over something they can’t see and mostly don’t have.

#218 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.19.20 at 8:30 am

Wow!
The CBC Halifax actually had Finance Minister Bill Morneau on this morning and asked him a few softball financial questions……nothing earth shattering, no questions on our massive increase in govt spending, debt and the ramifications for decades….
However, any people receiving GST rebate cheques can expect a bonus payment sometime in the future…..

One wonder how small business owners will survive rent payments, staff layoff, food, power and water bills while the federal govt plays the violin……..

Oh well the CBC actually seems to recognize this Coronavirus might actually affect their govt jobs.
I guess the pablum spewing CBC must read a few other blogs….

#219 Joe on 03.19.20 at 8:36 am

Weird times no doubt. However I am pretty sure this blog over the last years have bee telling everyone to buy stocks hand over fist. So looking at how this played out. And how the govs respond with unlimited money printing. Hard assets including homes are to fair better at least short term. Even better cash or precious metals. The most annoying part is people always projecting into the future 5-10-15% returns on stocks when it clearly only works until it does not. lucky my rrsp was in cash waiting for this type of external shock. Now it is time to start 5% at a time moving into other securities.

I wish to see a post pulling from your past blogs praising stocks with an apology to those that listened.

#220 Jager on 03.19.20 at 8:44 am

Big squeeze on China!

Pity the CCP now (no) as they begin to grapple with an imploded economy, dangerous unemployment levels (revolution), enormous debt and an angry world!

Not so gentle murmurs have already begun. i.e. Your incompetence exacerbated this global pandemic. (pay reparations preferably in gold or else! J-g-r)

U.S. Senator Tom Cotton
https://mobile.twitter.com/SenTomCotton/status/1240305337246322695

#221 Raging Ranter on 03.19.20 at 8:53 am

@#186 Gino: “long term puts , in the money, i dont pay much premium for them…

I hope you meant “out of the money”. Because long term in the money options ALWAYS have a hefty premium. If you were buying long term in the money puts throughout the last decade’s bull market, you wouldn’t be posting here because you wouldn’t be able to afford the Internet connection. Nobody ever sells in the money options for “little premium”.

#222 TurnerNation on 03.19.20 at 9:02 am

MORE on Phase 2 – in my novella.

– Social distancing will become law very soon. Who will enforce it? The friendly tech companies.
I thought I saw a Daily Mail news article that Facebook will be willing to track this via mobile phones…search it?

– With that distancing, if airlines ever fly again so many seats must be left empty – 5x higher high ticket cost. Flight will once again be for the rich. Or airlines will be nationalized anyway.

– What of CONDOS? Why has Ontario’s premier and construction unions agreed to keep up work? With no immigration, no local buyers left who will fill these condos?

Well…ON was already broke; bailouts will add to this.
So expect rural areas to be slowly de-serviced. Rural folks will be herded into cities, into these city condos. They’ve already closed down the School and stores in your rural areas right? Step 1.

– Electric cars: low range, there’s no rural charging station network. Did I mention ON is broke anyway? Car travel will be limited to range from cities.

#223 Dharma Bum on 03.19.20 at 9:09 am

Man, I wish I’d a bought that property up north a year ago. Coulda been hunkering down up there away from the filthy infected masses of this urban sewer jungle known as the GTA.
Gotta wait it out, I suppose.
Garth is right. Netflix, snacks, booze.
Come to think of it, it’s like a regular holiday.
Hope the utilities (electricity, natural gas, water) hold out.
Otherwise, it’s firewood and propane time.

#224 Stone on 03.19.20 at 9:12 am

Well, now moisters will have a hard times story to tell the next few generations just like Boomers do. You know what I mean:

“Back in my day, we had to walk barefoot to school, in 4 feet of snow, uphill, past a pack of sabre tooth tigers. You don’t know how good you have it.”

The moister equivalent will be:

“Back in my day, we couldn’t get our hands on TP. Starbucks was closed and we couldn’t get our avocado toast. It was horrible. You don’t know how good you have it.”

Ok Boomer? Ok Millennial?

Couldn’t help myself. Lol

#225 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.19.20 at 9:24 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

99% of deaths in Italy had other illnesses.

In Canada, we’ve gone from 621 cases to 690 cases overnight. That’s an 11% increase. We’ve gone from 30% increases, to 13%, now to 11%…

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html

Tom Hanks described the illness as “‘No fever but the blahs,’ the double Oscar winner tweeted. ‘Folding the laundry and doing the dishes leads to a nap on the couch.'”

https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory/tom-hanks-blahs-fever-isolation-69659139

It’s too early to make a call without being called insensitive; but this sure seems like a boy who cried wolf scenario… They’ve blown up the economy for a cold?

#226 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 9:28 am

@#191 re: ” Instead of bludgeoning the world markets and turning into savages, wouldn’t have it made more sense to just quarantine the vulnerable while 96% of society just got on with it?”

I was wondering that as well.

#227 JohnAB on 03.19.20 at 9:34 am

#26 Mike on 03.18.20 at 4:24 pm

https://housesigma.com/web/en/recommend/more/soldbelowbought

#228 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.19.20 at 9:35 am

#204 Sail Away on 03.19.20 at 2:27 am
#154 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 8:54 pm
#144 Flop… on 03.18.20 at 8:16 pm

He ended up giving me a lesson of a different kind…

M45BC

————————-

I went back to work today after a couple days off, to the realization that I can’t discuss this virus with a couple of my co-workers anymore. Fear. Glued to the news feeds. They were fine last week, now they’re quietly having a Price is Right freak out.

————————-

This reaction is surprisingly common. Do people really think they’re going to live forever? There’s really no reason to be afraid of something so statistically improbable as with this flu.

I sometimes have to bite back flippancy because many situations I see as adventure or minor annoyance, lots of N Americans see as a very real threat to life. And they’re actually afraid. Have their lives been that devoid of difficulty that such little resistance, or fatalism, is present?

Many eastern Europeans and Russians are not like that at all. Some crazy mfers. Lots of fun. I’m watching the Covid over there and talking with friends. People are talking about it, but it’s more a meh situation.

———-

Absolutely correct. My neighbour basically called me an anti-science deplorable because I made a joke about enjoying the end of the world because of the great parking…

#229 Down She Goes on 03.19.20 at 9:38 am

#51 Piano: Fortis like many babies in the bath has zero value until buyers equal sellers. Right now there are very few buyers and hordes of sellers. Punters are puking up stocks like 16 year old with a bottle of Lemon Gin. Why everything is going down a lot more because dividends are already started to cut or outright suspended. That could be the catalyst that causes and final cascade of value where even good companies like FTS may sell for pennies in six months. There’s no good news on the near horizon. Horde cash.

#230 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 9:40 am

Our egghead scientists always devoid of reason and perspective, now worry about the after affects of taking a bulldozer to a mosquito.

Yeah they didn’t factor in what social distancing will do to the economy and peoples own mental health. Imagine 2 people both lose their jobs then quarantined with each other to fight in front of bored kids. The mental health repercussions are staggering and wildly out weight this virus.

Look at the actual death rates he calculated using the Diamon Princess as a tests case. You cant pack people in closer quarters than that and only a fraction got sick.

This is nuts, we have torpedoed our entire economy and created another layer of irrational people over the other layers of already irrational people.

The social and economic impacts of this will be felt far into the future.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-response-scientists-1.5502423

#231 JB on 03.19.20 at 9:44 am

#122 John in Mtl on 03.18.20 at 7:08 pm

Well this is a weird one for certain. A Wall Street billionnaire, hard to beleive:

“…He went on to tweet that there should be no defaults, no foreclosures. In fact, he says he wants to see “a 30-day rent, interest and tax holiday for all” immediately. “The shutdown is inevitable as it is already happening, but not in a controlled fashion which is extending the economic pain and amplifying the spread of the virus,” Ackman wrote in his Twitter thread. “Please send everyone home now. With your leadership, we can end this now. The rest of the world will follow your lead. A global Spring Break will save us all.”

The story: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-billionaire-to-president-trump-send-everyone-home-now-2020-03-18?mod=MW_video_top_stories

I wonder if he’s really sincere or how much he stands to profit from this…
…………………………………………………………………..
Trumps only reason for taking up valuable breathing space on this third rock from the sun is to make $$$ and have sex with woman. Of course hes going to somehow make money, mind you I’m sure his hotels, golf courses and resorts are all taking a major hit right now.
He, if he was smart, (lmao), should have been prepared for this scenery. There was a training session provided by his predecessor free of charge before the inauguration. But alas he and his groupies were Ill equipped and for that matter not qualified for their positions. So consider it on the job training now.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797?utm_source=pocket-newtab

#232 Apocalypse2020 on 03.19.20 at 9:45 am

With all this “shock and awe”, be careful about your media selections. Get the truth as best you can, don’t put yourselves in a filter bubble.

#233 JB on 03.19.20 at 10:01 am

#230 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 9:40 am
Our egghead scientists always devoid of reason and perspective, now worry about the after affects of taking a bulldozer to a mosquito.
Yeah they didn’t factor in what social distancing will do to the economy and peoples own mental health. Imagine 2 people both lose their jobs then quarantined with each other to fight in front of bored kids. The mental health repercussions are staggering and wildly out weight this virus.
Look at the actual death rates he calculated using the Diamon Princess as a tests case. You cant pack people in closer quarters than that and only a fraction got sick.
This is nuts, we have torpedoed our entire economy and created another layer of irrational people over the other layers of already irrational people.
The social and economic impacts of this will be felt far into the future.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-response-scientists-1.5502423
……………………………………………………………
Yes we have torpedoed our economy with 9 deaths here in Canada. How do you think the Italians fell about this with 2,978 deaths. I have relatives in Italy that have been on lock-down for a month. Yes the economy is important but we are all in this together. This is a world wide pandemic, so the Italian economy will be far worse off as will others. Yes it sucks but I do have a personal connection to those effected with a relative that has the Covid-19 overseas. She didn’t ask for this shitty sickness and she has the right to live just as we all do. From my mothers contact with her cousin this sickness is devastating from a personal health point and it cratered her entire families livelihood they earn a living and even go out to get food. So take a hard long look at the lives that are affected by this sickness! How much is a life worth to you!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/generation-has-died-italian-province-struggles-bury-coronavirus-dead

#234 Kothar on 03.19.20 at 10:17 am

Forecast set in stone = Canada’s debt will top $ 1 trillion at fed level alone once this passes. Never mind the provinces cities and personal debt loads. Kiss AAA goodbye. Future taxes will skyrocket to try and fix the damage once this passes.

#235 theoryAndPractice on 03.19.20 at 10:17 am

#200 SoggyShorts on 03.19.20 at 1:37 am

I think all historical charts don’t mean much, The reason is that, advances in computers specifically internet and communication make things move a lot faster for better or worse.

It did not make much sense in February many ETFs are +7-8% up compared to January within a month. That supposed to happen within 1 year term. As a result, I have expected the downturn at the end of the February some level of wiping the profits for some term but honestly I did not expect this much !

The trend I’m seeing for last 3-4 years is that ‘just right timing’ is making money out of it : in at down peak , out at up peak and repeat the process. There are a lot of correlation with tweets/news and up/down peaks etc . The speed of trades and speed of reverse market direction/volatility , indicates algorithms and AI is taking over. There is no such thing in 1980’s..

#236 NoName on 03.19.20 at 10:19 am

#193 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.18.20 at 11:54 pm
#154 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 8:54 pm
#144 Flop… on 03.18.20 at 8:16 pm

He ended up giving me a lesson of a different kind…

M45BC

——

I went back to work today after a couple days off, to the realization that I can’t discuss this virus with a couple of my co-workers anymore. Fear. Glued to the news feeds. They were fine last week, now they’re quietly having a Price is Right freak out.

We can now hang our hat on the fact that the media/www has too much influence on too many folks.
————-
The sticks are no longer sanctuary.
The media is the message.
The banjo is your salvation.

This one time we were coming home from GA, i took (gps told me) a wrong exit and i ended up somewhere in tennessee, i pulled on a for a gas i gues what, there is a miniwan with this sticker on rear windshield.

https://www.amazon.com/Minglewood-Trading-Paddle-Faster-Banjos/dp/B00HSW7QF0

13min long
definetly press play, process of “enfolkifieing” hip hop, of skip to 11:30 to sea song
https://youtu.be/Ru3u-qK1OxM

#237 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 10:27 am

The numbers are out for the slowdown, -40% china, -22% EU and -14% USA.

They don’t even bother to estimate Canada because it will be china like here. The only country to have shut downs its economic engines for 5 yrs, then allow protestors to grind the country to a halt for a month and now a total closure of the country due to over reaction.

Prepare to be utterly shocked at the outcome. This is a recession for the ages coming. And Trudeaus big 82B announcement was mostly just tax deferrals.

#238 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 10:30 am

“There are two options for Covid-19 at the moment: long-term social distancing or overwhelmed health care systems. That is the depressing conclusion many epidemiologists have been emphasizing for weeks, and which was detailed in an analysis released this week by the Imperial College London.

Ioannidis is right that the prospect of intense social distancing for months or years is one that can hardly be imagined, let alone enacted. The alternative of letting the infection spread uncontrolled is equally unimaginable. We certainly need more data. Even more than that, we need a breakthrough to make effective treatments, vaccines, or other preventive measures available at scale.

Waiting and hoping for a miracle as health systems are overrun by Covid-19 is not an option. For the short term there is no choice but to use the time we are buying with social distancing to mobilize a massive political, economic, and societal effort to find new ways to cope with this virus.”

Marc Lipsitch, D.Phil., is professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and director of Harvard’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/

#239 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 10:51 am

One thing is for sure, we will all remember 2020. I have two daughters pursuing careers as health care professionals (one in medical school, the other in nursing). Lots of interesting discussions at our dinner table of late. Hoping things don’t get so bad that the younger one (future RN) isn’t forced onto the front lines while still a student, as has happened in past crises.

#240 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 10:51 am

#232 JB on 03.19.20 at 10:01 am
How much is a life worth to you!

——

Answer, exactly the same as all the 150,000 lives that will be lost this day to all cause mortality.

Society didn’t get this far by cowering in a ditch everytime something bad happens.

You are going to save more lives in auto accidents from this shut down.

Perspective and math. Yes its personal, but so are the 5 family members I lost to cancer in the past few yrs.

#241 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 10:53 am

#231 JB on 03.19.20 at 9:44 am

Trumps only reason for taking up valuable breathing space on this third rock from the sun is to make $$$ and have sex with woman.

He, if he was smart, (lmao), should have been prepared for this scenery.

————————–

Smart like you, I assume you mean, JB. Although it’s not quite clear which scenery you’re referring to. Is it a scenery without punctuation, spelling, or proper word choice?

#242 Mattl on 03.19.20 at 10:55 am

#131 comrade on 03.18.20 at 7:30 pm
#92 Landlord Larry on 03.18.20 at 5:58 pm

#60 Comrade on 03.18.20 at 5:16 pm

“Disclosure I’m a renter.But it seems we always get left behind as are minority voting group, no mention of rent assistance. While landlords get a break we still need to pay our rent.”

If we don’t collect our rents how do we pay our mortgage, insurance, repairs and property taxes…

—-
The point of my post is that it is in the works to freeze mortgages for six months, delay payment and late fees on property taxes, etc. but no mention of rent assistance.
If you get a pass on your mortgage and taxes for six months, would you give your renters pass?

————————————————————–

There is no free pass, interest continues to accumulate. This is simply a deferral.

If you are having a problem paying rent, you should work with your landlord. No one is going to get evicted for being a few months, or a few dollars behind. It wouldn’t make sense to evict a good tenant in this environment.

And the CCB is going up, EI is going to be very easy to access. These are all moves that will disproportionately benefit renters. I’m not sure why masses of renters would be unable to pay majority of their rent, social assistance is coming to the rescue, in far greater amounts then a Mortgage deferral.

#243 Mattl on 03.19.20 at 11:00 am

Will add, I am a homeowner and a tax payer – 40% annually – and my income is going to go down this year dramatically, by half.

Not one dollar of the 85B Trudeau announced is earmarked for my family. Don’t qualify for the CCB.

So anyone complaining about rent subsidies, first take a look at where you sit in the overall tax picture. If you are at the lower end of the income scale, you are already heavily subsidized.

And, you won’t be asked to pay for any of the 85B, that will be paid for by high income salary earners and small businesses.

#244 ALFRED E. NEUMAN on 03.19.20 at 11:13 am

Garth,

I have forwarded to-day’s post to several friends and have read it out-loud to my wife (she’s concerned).

Your and your Team’s contributions are a valued part of my daily regimen and I consider this post to be among the best you’ve written, and certainly the most timely.

We Canadians are so very, very lucky to have you.
Thank you sir.

#245 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 11:15 am

#225 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.19.20 at 9:24 am

It’s too early to make a call without being called insensitive; but this sure seems like a boy who cried wolf scenario… They’ve blown up the economy for a cold?

————————

Charlie Munger says it takes hard work to have an opinion. I withheld an opinion in the early days, because an actual pandemic could very well be real- these things do happen, after all.

Now, after reviewing available evidence? I’m fairly confident holding an opinion this is nothing more than a cold or a cold/flu, and possibly one that’s been around for awhile.

And my opinion about trusting government or mainstream media has been strengthened.

Did you know Donald Trump’s responsible for the COV? It’s true. Donnie told me he cooked it up with Xi and Putin. Luckily, CNN is busy insinuating the same.

#246 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 11:25 am

#238 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 10:51 am

One thing is for sure, we will all remember 2020. I have two daughters pursuing careers as health care professionals (one in medical school, the other in nursing). Lots of interesting discussions at our dinner table of late. Hoping things don’t get so bad that the younger one (future RN) isn’t forced onto the front lines while still a student, as has happened in past crises.

———————–

What the H are you talking about? Canada has like 2 cases nationwide. Panicked preparation does not a crisis make.

I’ll remember 2020 as the year my eyes rolled out of my head.

#247 oh bouy on 03.19.20 at 11:29 am

sheesh, the paranoia and fear mongering by some on here is both hilarious and sad.

take a breath people and maybe stay away from the news. its mostly just opinion not actual news with context

#248 Not So New guy on 03.19.20 at 11:37 am

#230 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 9:40 am

This is nuts, we have torpedoed our entire economy and created another layer of irrational people over the other layers of already irrational people.

=====================================

On the positive side, the government and MSM have taken another broadside to their credibility. Their climate change scam is starting to be revealed for the fraud that it is and now this. They are losing a whole generation of brainwashed youth who thought government, teachers, media and their own parents only ever told the truth and never lied to take advantage of them.

Hard times coming for the spinners of lies

The fourth turning is upon us

#249 IHCTD9 on 03.19.20 at 11:38 am

#233 Kothar on 03.19.20 at 10:17 am

Forecast set in stone = Canada’s debt will top $ 1 trillion at fed level alone once this passes. Never mind the provinces cities and personal debt loads. Kiss AAA goodbye. Future taxes will skyrocket to try and fix the damage once this passes.
___

Yep, and Canadians will probably resist the day of reckoning right up till a T-Shirt costs 500 Billion CAD.

Get a govy job kids, you’ll just be a tax slave chained to the whipping pole any other way in future Canada.

#250 IHCTD9 on 03.19.20 at 11:50 am

#240 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 10:53 am
#231 JB on 03.19.20 at 9:44 am

Trumps only reason for taking up valuable breathing space on this third rock from the sun is to make $$$ and have sex with woman.

He, if he was smart, (lmao), should have been prepared for this scenery.

————————–

Smart like you, I assume you mean, JB. Although it’s not quite clear which scenery you’re referring to. Is it a scenery without punctuation, spelling, or proper word choice?
___

Not to mention that gathering resources and get’n down with the Ladies seems like a pretty damn good plan.

#251 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.19.20 at 12:02 pm

#230 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 9:40 am

Thanks not 1st, Here is John Ioannidis’ actual article;

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

And very well worth the read. Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis is described as, “… one of the most cited, most highly regarded researchers.”

#252 Shawn Allen on 03.19.20 at 12:05 pm

Sail Away… Please Do

#244 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 11:15 am said:

Now, after reviewing available evidence? I’m fairly confident holding an opinion this is nothing more than a cold or a cold/flu, and possibly one that’s been around for awhile.

****************************************
Sail Away, please do sail away with your idiotic opinion.

#253 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 12:08 pm

#200 SoggyShorts on 03.19.20 at 1:37 am
#242 Sail away on 03.18.20 at 3:45 pm

Probably not politically correct, but…
Is anyone else enjoying this?

————————

Sorry, not at all. Honestly, I’m having a rough go of it.
Articles like this:

Make me ill.(and I can’t stop reading them or this blog)
To think that 12 months from my planed retirement date my portfolio has taken a beating that it may NEVER recover from if I make living withdrawals or may take a decade+ to come back (in real inflation adjusted terms) if I delay retirement…well it @#$&$ sucks.

Perhaps you or Garth can tell me why this time will be different from 2008/2000? Or why that linked article shouldn’t worry me

————————

Sorry to hear that Sogs. The ludicrous worldwide response here has caused a lot of issues and it very well may be similar to other crashes.

But… let’s say by the end of this, you’re down 30%. So from $1M to $700k, theoretically.

If it’s any consolation, Buffett’s 10-year bet on SPY lost -37% (!) the first year (2008), but greatly outpaced the hedge fund over the next ten, ending up +125%.

#254 SCD on 03.19.20 at 12:14 pm

Trudeau’s policies=Let them eat cake.

#255 whiplash on 03.19.20 at 12:20 pm

#233 Kother
Forecast set in stone= Canada’s debt will top $1 trillion…

Already surpassed that for fiscal year 2018-19 @ $1.066 trillion. Check out Borrowing Authority Act. Oh, maybe send a thank you card to Justin for shipping 16 Tonnes of PPE to China since February 4 no need to have masks, gloves, face shields, goggles here in Canada. Nothing to see here folks!!!

#256 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 12:21 pm

#251 Shawn Allen on 03.19.20 at 12:05 pm

—————–

That’s a little harsh, Shawn. I accept your right to your opinion. I may not agree with it, but I won’t be calling you names. Relax, pal.

#257 Dolce Vita on 03.19.20 at 12:22 pm

Comments I have read needing clarity:

1. How to use day over day COVID 19 case growth rate:

Canada as of 2020-03-18 had a 21% growth rate & 690 cases.

To get an approximation how fast cases will increase, use The Rule of 72 which approx. calculates how long it takes for a number to double (a quick & less nasty way to calculate this). For example:

= 72/21 ≃ 3.4 days for cases to double.

This means that at a 21% growth rate, by Saturday March 21st the total number of cases in Canada will be about 1,380.

That 21% rate anomalous since prior day rates about 30% to 34% (more in line with what other countries are experiencing); thus:

-at 30% cases will double in about 2.4 days or on Friday March 20th and,
-at 33% cases will double in about 2.2 days or on Friday March 20th again.

Also, lower rate on 2020-03-18 (21%) probably due to Canada not having tested enough. It increases as you test more.

Rate source data:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Canada#cite_note-9

————————————————

2. N. American MSM has not been on top of mortality rates and at risk groups – understandable (I Commented on this a while ago here) and here it is again, Italian data, multiple sources published in Italian dailies:

-97% of the deaths >= 60 years of age.

Mortality rates rise to (estimated average is at 2-3%):

-6% among hypertensives
-7.3% among diabetics
-10.5 % among cardiopaths and
-14.8% among those over eighty.
-6.3% for those suffering from lung complications, from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to emphysema.

-“Older adults are less likely to present with a fever, therefore a careful evaluation of other symptoms such as coughing or shortness of breath is justified.” MEANING GET TESTED IF YOU ARE OLDER, FEVER SYMPTOMS MAY NOT SHOW.

-COVID 19 kills via (in large part) by:

…Interstitial Pneumonia and,
…Acute Respiratory Syndrome (ARS)

The above 2 why many more ventilators are needed in hospitals. And those 2 are a toughy to cure for people per the above elevated mortality rates.

#258 Lambchop on 03.19.20 at 12:35 pm

#245 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 11:25 am

What the H are you talking about? Canada has like 2 cases nationwide. Panicked preparation does not a crisis make.

I’ll remember 2020 as the year my eyes rolled out of my head.

________________

Omydog, thanks for that!! I needed a good laugh amongst all this doom and gloom panic!
You just made my workday so much better.

#259 belly rubs on 03.19.20 at 12:42 pm

My wife is a procurement coordinator working from home this week, so I catch the chatter. Big orders of medical supplies on the way.

#260 Lost...but not leased on 03.19.20 at 12:44 pm

Just talked to a realtor friend here in B.C.

They said their office is sending out a memo that any purchase offers should contain a clause re: the Land Titles Office…..it may be shut down due to the virus and thus create delay in such things as possession dates.

Other advice is simply pause….things are too uncertain.

#261 EB on 03.19.20 at 12:45 pm

Our ancestors were no dummies. Copper fixtures are self-disinfecting, no bleach scrubs necessary.

#262 IHCTD9 on 03.19.20 at 1:20 pm

#246 oh bouy on 03.19.20 at 11:29 am
sheesh, the paranoia and fear mongering by some on here is both hilarious and sad.

take a breath people and maybe stay away from the news. its mostly just opinion not actual news with context
___

Just a heads up OB – once someone crosses over into lala land – it’s hard to get ’em back.

I mentioned earlier that there’s a couple co workers I can’t talk to regarding COVID-19. They are firmly and I mean FIRMLY of the belief that this virus is going to wipe out half the planet.

There have been less than 10,000 deaths world wide so far from COVID-19. These peeps I work with own dogs as pets (35,000 people killed by dogs per year), they own cars (1.25 Million accident deaths per year), live among other humans (437,000 murders per year) – but 10K deaths from COVID-19 has them so ****** up it’s become taboo to be not concerned.

Obviously, it’s not the actual real world danger affecting them, it’s all the hype, all the “news”, the non stop deluge of information they allow to affect their decision making. This is human nature, it works; and the MSM knows it – they’ve been cashing in big scaring the crap out of everyone for years. Some dudes had this tendency figured out a long time ago:

“What really frightens and dismays us is not external events themselves, but the way in which we think about them. It is not things that disturb us, but our interpretation of their significance.” – Epictetus

#263 jess on 03.19.20 at 1:24 pm

what is old is new – taking blood from the recovered /test antigens

good chart on do nothing, social distancing, vaccine (herd immunity)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETZql7UX0AEZfsd?format=jpg&name=4096×4096

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/13/covid-19-antibody-sera-arturo-casadevall/

#264 Lost...but not leased on 03.19.20 at 1:32 pm

Re COVID 19..

There is a classic Twilight Zone episode whereby a neighbourhood reacts to a rumour there are aliens in their midst. The paranoia builds till chaos ensues.

Then the camera pans to an alien space ship..and the aliens viewing the proceedings look at scorn at the earthlings and their behaviour.

My personal feelings are this COVID 19 is a nothing burger in the big scheme of things. At minimum the elites and their gov’t cronies are simply taking notes on what amounts to a global psychological warfare experiment.

#265 Attrition on 03.19.20 at 1:39 pm

As for the virus:

Wuhan cases level off/stopped for now.

No exponential growth in global infections, so far.

Increases in infection rates due to massive increase in testing.

USA has malaria drug treatment with huge potential to help with Covid, being fast tracked by FDA.

Hokkaido, Japan just ended their state of emergency and is reopening schools and sporting events.

Everything (Dow, TSA, Oil, Dollar etc.) is up at this exact moment.

99% of all those who died in Italy had underlying health issues.

Total fatality rates much lower than presented, as not everyone infected can be identified.

As for the economy:

All this stimulus will stimulate serious inflation. Garth?

Pent-up demand will re-balance markets when it is agreed the worst is over.

The rebound will take time–the way up usually does.

In summary:

It ain’t over yet, but the end is in sight.

Some things will be different, but the end times it ain’t.

Learn from this, and prepare for the next one.

If you lost coin, don’t blame anyone else.

And, never bet against the good ‘ol USA!

#266 oh bouy on 03.19.20 at 2:04 pm

@#261 IHCTD9 on 03.19.20 at 1:20 pm
#246 oh bouy on 03.19.20 at 11:29 am
sheesh, the paranoia and fear mongering by some on here is both hilarious and sad.

take a breath people and maybe stay away from the news. its mostly just opinion not actual news with context
___

Just a heads up OB – once someone crosses over into lala land – it’s hard to get ’em back.
_______________________________________

folks definitely getting lost in their own heads.
the stress will compromise your immune system giving easy access to illness.

I try not to worry about things out of my control.
works well for me.

#267 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 2:12 pm

@#245 re: ” What the H are you talking about? Canada has like 2 cases nationwide. Panicked preparation does not a crisis make.”

Huh? Not panicked at all. On a personal level, mostly worried about my portfolio.

You must misunderstand my musings. Ditto the your fan Lambchopped who has a hate-on for me…probably because I am smarter than she is.

Anyway, I highly doubt my nursing student daughter will have to participate in any way during the current COVID-19 situation…was just musing about wartime crises and what is within the realm of possibilities at some point during her career as a nurse.

Neither I, nor my family is panicked in any way. Heck, we only have one spare package of toilet paper, as per usual. And I keeping thinking maybe we should stock up on perishables, but haven’t. My bad?

Accidentally caught sight of nursing student daughter practicing “social isolation” in the driveway with her new boyfriend the other night. LOL.

#268 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.19.20 at 2:14 pm

My next prediction:

Us election will be postponed. Once Biden is confirmed as the candidate, he and Trump will make a joint statement begging congress to postpone the campaign. Neither side can effectively campaign under these conditions. Trump should be campaigning right now. Biden is still trying to campaign as we speak.
Trump has a choice; save planet earth or campaign.
It’s unfair to expect anyone to have to make that choice.

#269 Lost...but not leased on 03.19.20 at 2:16 pm

Martial Law by back door….

Big Brother is now stepping in and overriding existing laws…such as waiving strata fees…..landlords can’t evict tenants…

We can understand the need…but how will the void of $$ be compensated after dust settles ?

Also wonder how many parties placed “bets” on this collapse…and how solvent insurance companies will be ?

#270 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 2:38 pm

Imo, The key word with respect to the ongoing COVID-19 situation — as with Garth’s portfolio preachings — is BALANCE.

Notice the CAPS SA? I know how much you hate it when I use those.

On a personal level, what can we do to help reduce the spread while at the same time maintaining an attitude that is calm, reasoned, and respectful of others?

Much more challenging, how do countries throughout the world BALANCE dealing with a pandemic without causing too much damage to world economies?

There are no easy answers. We are learning as we go. There will be much scientific and economic analysis after the fact.

Hopefully the outcome won’t be as severe (from either a health or economic perspective) as many fear, and that we will learn how to better prepare for future pandemics while simultaneously minimizing harm to our economies.

Fascinating time to be alive, I think.

#271 Remembrancer on 03.19.20 at 2:44 pm

#267 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.19.20 at 2:14 pm
My next prediction:

Trump has a choice; save planet earth or campaign.
It’s unfair to expect anyone to have to make that choice.
———————————————
Would be last official act of a dying democracy if so…

US held elections just fine in 1812 (like you know, the war of 1812), 1864 (Civil War), 1944 (real war to save the world) and 1972 – in fact Trump is already playing for winning odds likening himself to a wartime president (hey Studio 54 was his Vietnam after all so he has experience already) as the incumbent is favored…

Trump last chance of saving the world, that’s funny…

#272 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.19.20 at 2:46 pm

I’ve been training thousands of people on “social distancing” in elevators for decades.

No need to thank me

#273 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 2:48 pm

#261 IHCTD9 on 03.19.20 at 1:20 pm

…once someone crosses over into lala land – it’s hard to get ’em back.

I mentioned earlier that there’s a couple co workers I can’t talk to regarding COVID-19. They are firmly and I mean FIRMLY of the belief that this virus is going to wipe out half the planet.

——————-

Bandwagon jumpers are like that. They’ll be the same ones enthusiastically participating in every fad. Nothing wrong with that… just be careful to never trust them with emotional decisions.

Also easy to manipulate. They’ll often have stories about the way they’ve been scammed in the past. And their life savings probably went to marijuana investing. The theme here is bright, shiny and interesting.

#274 Lost...but not leased on 03.19.20 at 2:51 pm

#267 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.19.20 a

===============

Rumour has it that elections will be suspended and Trump will remain President.

#275 The other Lebowski on 03.19.20 at 2:51 pm

Wow massive short squeeze in the oil market. This should clear the decks for the next dump.

#276 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 2:55 pm

#266 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 2:12 pm

—————–

That was a rational response. I’m impressed.

#277 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 2:56 pm

@#263 re: ” My personal feelings are this COVID 19 is a nothing burger in the big scheme of things. At minimum the elites and their gov’t cronies are simply taking notes on what amounts to a global psychological warfare experiment.”

What a sad outlook. I think this is a huge learning opportunity for science and government.

#278 jess on 03.19.20 at 3:05 pm

136 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 7:51 pm

look at the chart i posted social distancing vs do nothing social distancing vaccine (herd immunity)

“Focus on solutions not blame and not conspiracies.”

blame china ? why not all those about wealthy travellers ?

“In 1969, in a book-length essay entitled Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth, the inventor and polymath Buckminster Fuller offered a striking metaphor for a new ideal of planetary management. Although Earth did not come with instructions, our spaceship had built-in safety features that had kept us going. Still, our pilot errors were catching up with us: we had been so “misusing, abusing, and polluting” the planet, Fuller argued, that it might need to be renamed “Poluto”. That way lay humanity’s oblivion. But if we discovered how our spaceship worked — if we learned to make the best use of our incredible ingenuity — we might become “comprehensively and sustainably successful”.

perhaps, war ending sooner cease fire

#279 Dolce Vita on 03.19.20 at 3:06 pm

Garth, recession for sure but I think a lot longer than we all are thinking.

Vaccine in 12-18 months time, meaning 2021. So economic activity at a crawl in between.

Pandemics come in waves. This is the 1st wave.

I listen that there maybe an antibody test this year, thus freeing those infected, cured with antibodies to resume normal life…and the rest of us, how will that work?

Canada’s economy is strong but when so many sidelined in social isolation, not working and potentially until next year…it’s looking protracted, to say the least. More like grim.

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#262 jess

Imperial College study refuted “herd immunity” (accurately modeling influenza et. al. outbreaks for 2 decades). Why do you think “herd immunity” Boris, Macron, Trump, Angela about faced overnight and are now following suit to what Italy, S. Korea and China are doing and/or have done? Ya, that study.

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#257 Lambchop

I admire the enthusiasm and Unsinkable Molly Brown attitude BUT both you and your buddy Sailaway get back to me end of March and tell me what you think then? When projected that Canada will be at peak outbreak. It will be geographic, some Cdn areas peaking later.

Being there now, here in Italia, cavalier will be your answer.

#280 Sail Away on 03.19.20 at 3:07 pm

Ok, folks. That’s all. It’s over… or close enough to over.

I’m buying.

Everybody else should of course do what they feel is best.

#281 Lost...but not leased on 03.19.20 at 3:13 pm

#238 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 10:51 am

One thing is for sure, we will all remember 2020. I have two daughters pursuing careers as health care professionals (one in medical school, the other in nursing).

=================================

Perhaps research the FLEXNER REPORT (Flexner was Canadian)..funded by JD “competition is a sin” Rockefeller…and how modern medicine has been co-opted and corrupted.

#282 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 3:27 pm

@#275 re: “That was a rational response. I’m impressed.”

The difference between you and I, is that I care about people who I don’t know and who are not related to me, as well as future generations.

Regardless, do keep in mind SA, that it is not just the old and ailing who suffer from an overwhelmed health care system. It could be you, or one of yours, should you/they have an injury or illness of any kind.

#283 jess on 03.19.20 at 3:33 pm

The coronavirus measures in place in the hard hit Lombardy region of northern Italy are “not strict enough,” according to Chinese medical experts helping the country deal with the crisis.

The situation in Lombardy right now “is similar to what we experienced two months ago in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of COVID-19,” the Chinese Red Cross vice president, Sun Shuopeng, said Thursday in a press conference in Milan, Italy.

“In the city of Wuhan after one month since the adoption of the lockdown policy, we see a decreasing trend from the peak of the disease,” Sun Shuopeng said. “Here in Milan, the hardest hit area by COVID-19, there isn’t a very strict lockdown: public transportation is still working and people are still moving around, you’re still having dinners and parties in the hotels and you’re not wearing masks. We need every citizen to be involved in the fight of COVID-19 and follow this policy.”

He advised Italians to stop all “economic activities and cut the mobility of people.”

Everyone should just stay at home, he added.

#284 Lost...but not leased on 03.19.20 at 3:37 pm

#276 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 2:56 pm
@#263 re: ” My personal feelings are this COVID 19 is a nothing burger in the big scheme of things. At minimum the elites and their gov’t cronies are simply taking notes on what amounts to a global psychological warfare experiment.”

What a sad outlook. I think this is a huge learning opportunity for science and government.

======================

Actually…this is a huge learning opportunity for THE GENERAL PUBLIC to peel back the veil….and Wake the “F” up.

The future is relatively predictable:
—-there will be various forms of martial law(Just saw on news the Gov’t is diddling with such gems as calling err conscripting retired Health Care workers to return to work

—-Vaccines (more junk science) will likely be some form of mandatory.

—Hmm..latest buzz words (from “propoganda central “across the board ) such as “flattening the curve”

—the psych warfare being imposed will increase depression and likely have have people going postal…

Perhaps GOOGLE Yuri Bezmenov warning..

#285 JB on 03.19.20 at 3:38 pm

#240 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 10:53 am

#231 JB on 03.19.20 at 9:44 am

Trumps only reason for taking up valuable breathing space on this third rock from the sun is to make $$$ and have sex with woman.

He, if he was smart, (lmao), should have been prepared for this scenery.

————————–
Smart like you, I assume you mean, JB. Although it’s not quite clear which scenery you’re referring to. Is it a scenery without punctuation, spelling, or proper word choice?
………………………………………………………………..
I may not be the sharpest knife in the block but you have to give me a Smoking Man Mulligan on the spelling and punctuation. It was done in hast on my phone without SP check and grammar turned on.

What I intended to say was the following.

If Trump was smart he would have been prepared for this scenario. There was a training session provided by his predecessor free of charge before the inauguration. Alas he and his groupies were Ill equipped. In regards to that matter were not qualified for their positions. So consider it on the job training now. lmao

Thanks for the reminder on proper spelling and punctuation Captain Obvious.

#286 JB on 03.19.20 at 3:41 pm

#239 not 1st on 03.19.20 at 10:51 am

#232 JB on 03.19.20 at 10:01 am
How much is a life worth to you!

——

Answer, exactly the same as all the 150,000 lives that will be lost this day to all cause mortality.

Society didn’t get this far by cowering in a ditch everytime something bad happens.

You are going to save more lives in auto accidents from this shut down.

Perspective and math. Yes its personal, but so are the 5 family members I lost to cancer in the past few yrs.
………………………………………………………………….
So we agree all lives are important then!

#287 JB on 03.19.20 at 3:46 pm

#121 Smoking Man on 03.18.20 at 6:58 pm

#74 Penny Henny on 03.18.20 at 5:34 pm
#20 JB on 03.18.20 at 4:13 pm
Hey Smoking Guy since your back in Canada let us know where blog dogs can meet you for a beer O sage of Forex.
///////////////

Make sure to keep two metres away.
Three metres is better, he spits when he talks.
…..
3 weeks when I’m done treatment.
Thinking Monarch Tavern on Clinton Street.
Right next to San Francisco Foods. Best steak sandwich in the city…
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Know it well being Italian and all, however its closed due to the present health situation Smoking Man. Jesus what are you being treated for Smoking Man? I hope your OK and not under the ray guns.
Keep well.

#288 IHCTD9 on 03.19.20 at 3:54 pm

#266 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 2:12 pm

Accidentally caught sight of nursing student daughter practicing “social isolation” in the driveway with her new boyfriend the other night. LOL.
___

Well, I hope student daughter has a longer attention span than her Mother.

Maybe you could give him a few subtle suggestions on the benefits of an early vasectomy and not allowing any Females to move in with him for the long term?

#289 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 3:55 pm

#281 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 3:27 pm

The difference between you and I, is that I care about people who I don’t know and who are not related to me, as well as future generations.

———————-

That’s nice. Sort of like God.

#290 Sail away on 03.19.20 at 4:03 pm

#284 JB on 03.19.20 at 3:38 pm

Thanks for the reminder on proper spelling and punctuation Captain Obvious.

——————

You’re welcome!

I’m here to help.

#291 Attrition on 03.19.20 at 4:18 pm

If what I think I know today holds true in the indicators I watch tomorrow, I’ll be buying back in.

Market timers unite – it’s our thrice in a lifetime opportunity!

#292 Sold Out on 03.19.20 at 4:20 pm

I, for one, heartily endorse the complete lack of regard some commenters here display towards the medical/scientific establishment.

Of course, my endorsement is contingent upon your continued refusal to partake in any of the global benefits of scientific advancement. No digital media, no ICE or EV, no TV, no medical care beyond leaches and amputations, no refrigeration for food, no anti-biotics, you get the idea.

You may have a radio, but it should have tubes for that ring of authenticity.

What’s that you say? Only SJWs and pipeline protestors should have to abide by those types of blanket restrictions? Perhaps the Stoic science deniers would grace us with a demonstration of what true intellectual conviction looks like.

Oh, by the way, you should also limit your petroleum use to that which can be taken internally, or applied as a poultice.

#293 Stone on 03.19.20 at 9:35 pm

Considering the current circumstances with the virus and its consequences on the world, will this be the end of mass immigration, not just in Canada but everywhere, at any costs?

Will universities throughout the world stop taking such large quantities of non-resident students?

Or, will everyone just roll over in a few months with life going back to the way things were before?