Covid queries

When will markets bottom? Where does hope lie?

Each Tuesday evening my colleagues (and fellow bloggers) Doug Rowat and Ryan Lewenza join me on a conference call with the folks whose investments and finances we manage. Tonight we sought to answer the questions above. Here is a link to our conversation.

Turner Investments Client Call, March 17, 2020 (33 minutes)
LISTEN – .mp3 Audio – OR – .m4a Audio

_______________________________________________________________

CIBC announced it’s closing the better part of a hundred locations and curtailing hours. BeeMo followed suit, saying 15% of its locations would be shuttered. Temporarily, maybe. The Canadian Bankers Association fessed on Tuesday it’s coordinating reduced hours and staff across the industry. The brunt of closures will be in urban centres. Small towns exempt. Another reason not to live in a $700,000, 600-square-foot box on the 28th floor.

But here’s the question: is Covid whacking the banks?

Of course share values briefly crashed. Look at RBC. Almost $110 a pop in February, all the way down to $78 last Thursday (and at $92 as I write this. Did you buy?). The banks are suffering from tighter spreads as rates drop and are now facing a lousy spring mortgage season. So could any of these guys be in trouble? After all, if Canadians are losing jobs, social-distancing and self-isolating – and owe record wads to the Big Six – what happens if loan losses accelerate when people just can’t make mortgage or CC payments?

Darren’s starting to sweat it.

“We sold our house and are riding out the real estate craziness before we buy again. We had a short time frame of less than two years and have $1.1M sitting in a single CIBC savings account because up to last week, we were earning 3%.

“Our concern is losing it all in a worse case bank collapse scenario. What advice would you give to prevent losing this capital? Split it into $100k chunks across multiple accounts and banks to maximize CDIC insurance? Looking forward to your sage advice.”

Three weeks ago CIBC announced a profit of $1.21 billion. That was for 90 days, topping last year, beating analysts’ estimates and allowing the bank to hike its dividend. In fact during the 2008 credit crisis – which (unlike now) was a financial pandemic – no Canadian bank even reduced a divvy payment, let alone suspended one.

As for a bank failing, won’t happen. If it came close, bail-in provisions are in place to turn certain forms of investor debt into bank equity and bail the place out. No deposits would be involved. No retail accounts. Nobody’s savings.

Finally, if one of the Big Guys failed, your deposit insurance would be moot. CIBC, for example, has 10 million clients and $17 billion in cash deposits. The deposit corp has $5 billion in cash, and $800 billion that it’s supposed to insure. Figure that out.

In any case, Darren, relax. Open a flurry of accounts all over town if you want, but it will be mosquito work. The bank will be there when you are dust. And to ensure that doesn’t happen soon, wash your damn hands.

Now, here’s Michael. He’s looking at these crazy markets, the 30% whack lots of good assets have taken, and like a true GF stud, feeling his oats.

“I’m curious about dipping into my LOC (6.45%) to put towards my accounts. I’m not one to borrow but feel this is a unique time. You’ve mentioned in the blog that the interest paid is tax deductible.

“I also want to be cautious because the auto industry will slow right down which will impact my income flow.  Any feedback would be appreciated.”

Let’s summarize, Mikey. You have no money lying around to invest, and need a loan. The cost of borrowing is huge – 3.5% above the current prime rate. You’re a novice borrower. And your job is tenuous in an industry currently being whipped. So, what are you thinking? If making money was this easy, why isn’t everyone on Wall Street and Bay Street doing it?

Simple. Risk. Interest on money borrowed to buy investment assets is, indeed, deductible from taxable income. That’s cool but not enough of an incentive to gamble buying things which (in this environment) could fall as easily as gain. Just as it’s unwise to sell anything in the middle of a storm, it’s equally imprudent to buy – especially with money you don’t own, and costing three times the inflation rate to access.

And, geez, how about your income? If Mr. Virus hangs around for three more months before releasing its grip, car sales will tank along with real estate and you could be looking at less cash flow and more debt. Yes, stocks and equity-based ETFs are (like me) value-packed and unloved at the moment, but this is not the best time to be a cowboy.

By the way, did you see the latest VIX chart, M?

Yup, we just sailed past the 2008 spike.

Today, down the street, the locals cleaned out all the bags of potatoes and carrots at the neighbourhood store. They weren’t doing that 12 years ago. In those halcyon days of crisis we had lots of bumwad, too. When the credit crunch hit, governments and central banks figured out how to solve it. This time – because the threat involves health – humans are utterly irrational.

Chill, Mike. Darren, too. Listen to the authorities. Stay at home and self-inebriate.

 

250 comments ↓

#1 Dave on 03.17.20 at 4:55 pm

When is China going to compensate countries for Covid?

#2 Lost ...but not leased on 03.17.20 at 4:57 pm

Phhyyrrzt !

#3 S.Bby on 03.17.20 at 5:00 pm

I hope the liquor stores don’t close. Is anybody hoarding Jack Daniels?

#4 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 03.17.20 at 5:01 pm

Not to get technical but according to chemistry alcohol is a solution – anonymous

#5 MF on 03.17.20 at 5:07 pm

Today was just the obligatory up day after a big down day on the markets. Expect another down day after today’s up day but maybe muted (because today was muted).

This thing is just taking hold in north america so expect much more down days to come. I deal with the public for work, and the fear is palpable.

The central banks are fighting the last war. Never a good idea as history has shown. The fed dropping rates to zero and doing whatever other weird purchases no one understands was the financial version of the Maginot line.

MF

#6 FreeBird on 03.17.20 at 5:11 pm

Both husb and I are/were at high risk so no surprise I’m waiting to be tested to confirm COVID but on doctor ordered quarantine at home (for now) and self isolated in house for two weeks to keep one of us healthy. Husb also showing signs but hoping just allergies. It’s not fun and already having breathing issues but we’re trying to just carry on. Stay safe, invested and…don’t hoard TP.

#7 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 03.17.20 at 5:12 pm

When it’s all said and done I’m gonna be one rich sumumma b…ch!!

#8 Loaded Graham on 03.17.20 at 5:14 pm

Hi Garth, I got 30% cash ready to burn. I guess I can’t lose no matter where I nibble eh? Maybe I’ll much on some banking stock like you mentioned.

#9 not 1st on 03.17.20 at 5:14 pm

Anybody paying 6.5% on a LOC had better find something else to speculate on.

Geez Garth some of these dividend yields have doubled on companies that have never missed a dividend pmt before in their history. That doesnt seem very cowboy to me. Seems no brainer.

#10 It was Elton John ... on 03.17.20 at 5:16 pm

that sang the song … Someone saved my life tonight. But this line seems to be of particular interest these days …”We’ve all gone crazy lately.”
My freezer is full of red meat and my demijohns are full of painkiller. I’m set.

#11 YouKnowWho on 03.17.20 at 5:17 pm

Who would have thought hugs would be a luxury?

#12 the Jaguar on 03.17.20 at 5:18 pm

It cannot be said often enough, and must always be said with great reverence…….Canada’s big banks are ancient warriors.
Too bad about the ‘run’ on potatos and carrots, but it’s a sign of the times. Herd instinct lead by real time social media, just one example of how we humans have sold our souls in pursuit of all the really unimportant things in life. I don’t refer to the potatoes and carrots. One wonders if this current greatest of calamities will create any permanent change when it’s all over. Will more people choose to live in smaller towns and cities, grow more of their own food, start to seriously question where other food comes from as well as their medications and other necessities? Pursue a more simple existence giving up less control over their lives? Or will it all disappear as fast as a fart in a hurricane when the flood of cheap overseas goods come hurtling back again.
I’m confident there is little hope for the toilet paper hoarders, but some may begin develop a new perspective.

#13 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 5:19 pm

Just got back from an overnighter in Montreal. TP was cleaned out there too hahaha. Lot’s of food and drink still on the shelves though. Our hotel had 26 guests, lady at the counter said normally 3-400. Tonight they have 15 booked in.

Those sucka’s are paying .98 for gas out there, it’s .78-.82 here in the sticks. You Albertans must be nearing the .60’s by now.

#14 TurnerNation on 03.17.20 at 5:20 pm

I’ve been sensing total chaos for 2020-21 since late last year and posted many times that here.

This is what they want…:
_________________________
The Globe and Mail @globeandmail
During a pandemic, prisons pose a special risk. We need to release non-violent offenders http://dlvr.it/RS2S9L
@GlobeDebate

#15 Loonie Doctor on 03.17.20 at 5:21 pm

People being scared shitless is an excellent thing when dealing with the current situation. The most important thing right now is to minimize contact to slow the spread. Regulations will increasingly do this, but time is very important. Fear to modify behavior before more rules is good. Plus, being shitless saves on TP.
-LD

#16 Doug t on 03.17.20 at 5:22 pm

Let the inebriation begin -HAPPY ST. PATTY DAY

#17 not 1st on 03.17.20 at 5:22 pm

Trump is sending $1000 to every person in the country. A bailout in the hands of the people first time ever.

After cashing up Bombardier, CBC, AC and all the banks, Trudeau will be sending an autographed selfie to everyone else.

#18 Franco on 03.17.20 at 5:23 pm

Tonight a glass of wine with a nice edible.

#19 YouKnowWho on 03.17.20 at 5:24 pm

News flash!

Everyone will die.

…sooner or later.

Accept it. It will help you with fear.

Coronavirus maybe the motivation many needed to quit smoking, vaping, weed clouding your brains and take better care of your bodies.

I still say we’re going to get one heck of a baby boom out of this. Age of Aquarius v2.0 start of 2021?

#20 MF on 03.17.20 at 5:27 pm

8 Loaded Graham on 03.17.20 at 5

Lol yeah can’t lose. Free money! Load up….

Unless your post was extreme sarcasm? Well played.

MF

#21 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 5:27 pm

@Lambchopped, Although you may be “loathe” to reply (no wonder considering your IQ), in case you missed my reply to your comment from prior blog entry, would love to hear you elaborate more on your words: ” Smoking has so far killed more than 700,000 people this year and definitely takes resources and hospital beds away from people with other problems, like covid19. Where is the outrage? Where is the gov’t intervention?”

LMAO! Thanks for that!

#22 Lost...but not leased on 03.17.20 at 5:29 pm

How many people have coronavirus?

(Excellent article…by excellent journalist..to put your mind at ease)

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/15/how-many-people-have-coronavirus/

#23 Toronto_CA on 03.17.20 at 5:29 pm

Layoffs are starting MUCH quicker than expected. There will be blood in the streets. I think universal income would be the best remedy, tax it back on people who earn more than a living wage. Unlike 2008, this crisis will target the low income and leave the middle class relatively untouched (as long as they don’t cash out).

The only silver lining is that if Asia is any indication, it will blow out as quick as it came in and the jobs will come back.

But MASSIVE layoffs. Guess how many people Pearson airport employs that won’t be needed if international flights stop, and domestic travel trickles to nearly nothing?

The cure could be worse than the virus.

#24 MF on 03.17.20 at 5:29 pm

YouKnowWho on 03.17.20

Couldn’t be more wrong.

Couples, holed up together for two weeks with nothing else to do and no one else to talk to?

More like expect a spike in divorces.

MF

#25 Flywest29 on 03.17.20 at 5:32 pm

Thank you again Garth for all that you do. You are a voice of reason in a time of hysteria.

#26 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 5:34 pm

@#24 MF, Or a spike in murder suicides.

#27 Honest Realtor on 03.17.20 at 5:36 pm

In times like this, I mostly appreciate having a roof over my head that is paid off. I’ll buy into markets like this only when Buffett does.

#28 FreeBird on 03.17.20 at 5:37 pm

I’m about to join the official stats.

Canada and COVID testing
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/nationalpost.com/health/canada-among-top-world-performers-in-testing-for-covid-19-despite-shortcomings/amp

Stats incl tests performed worldwide:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

USA and COVID testing…
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/test-test-test-who-says-as-us-flounders-with-covid-19-response/%3famp=1

#29 SmarterSquirrel on 03.17.20 at 5:38 pm

Many investors look at stock market charts and base their decisions on them to decide when to invest. I don’t.

Many friends have asked me if I’ve started buying in to the market. Well I like to look at financials. The problem is how do you know how well a company or stock is going to do? If cities states provinces countries are now enacting shelter-in-place orders, what does that do to revenues for various businesses? If people are being laid off, what does that do for their need to sell stock to raise cash to pay rent and what does that do to valuations on ‘safe’ stocks like BCE FTS etc? To me the catalyst that took markets down was the reaction to covid19. So for me I’m not going to cowboy into the markets until I see that covid19 is starting to decline.

I’m not looking at market charts, I’m looking at covid19 charts. In particular I’m looking at US new daily cases of covid19 charts. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Once those show consistent declines, to me it will mean the virus threat is abating and then I’ll look for companies with enough cash and cash equivalents on their balance sheet to pay their operating and interest expenses for a couple of quarters in a reduced revenue economy. And I’m looking for low debt to equity ratios to make sure the company isn’t over leveraged.

But I’m not buying in yet. Too volatile and too many unknowns. It’s still early days for North America.

#30 Barb on 03.17.20 at 5:43 pm

#6 FreeBird on 03.17.20 at 5:11 pm

——-
Fingers crossed you’ll both sail through this just fine.

#31 Jim on 03.17.20 at 5:51 pm

Brent 28.5200 0.99 -3.35%

#32 Stone on 03.17.20 at 5:54 pm

#23 Toronto_CA on 03.17.20 at 5:29 pm
Layoffs are starting MUCH quicker than expected. There will be blood in the streets. I think universal income would be the best remedy, tax it back on people who earn more than a living wage. Unlike 2008, this crisis will target the low income and leave the middle class relatively untouched (as long as they don’t cash out).

The only silver lining is that if Asia is any indication, it will blow out as quick as it came in and the jobs will come back.

But MASSIVE layoffs. Guess how many people Pearson airport employs that won’t be needed if international flights stop, and domestic travel trickles to nearly nothing?

The cure could be worse than the virus.

———

Lots of layoffs were already in the works before all this happened. Look at the banks aiming to cut about 5% of their workforce. Other industries across Canada were looking to do the same as well.

This will just make it easier for them to toss those employees and blame the virus.

And the response from the sheeple: okee dokey.

#33 Shawn Allen on 03.17.20 at 5:56 pm

Thoughts

Toronto CA at 23 is probably right. Massive layoffs. Job losses of hundreds of thousands to a million seems certain within weeks. Some will keep getting paid, others not. EI is a pale substitute for many.

Massive shutdown of all consumer services underway. May be crazy but it it will continue.

No rush to buy stocks, could go much lower.

What can I say about bank balance sheets without arousing anger? Banks are highly leveraged compared to other businesses. Dividend cuts are simply not impossible. Yes there would be substantial government help. But do not assume that bank shares can’t go go down a lot. I hope not. But NOTHING is certain right now.

Markets were up today based on fairly massive stimulus and aid announcements from the U.S. government. Tomorrow, the stimulus will be old news and the fear will be higher as the shutdown / lock down continues.

Let us pray the lock down works and/or vaccines can somehow be brought out within say two months.

#34 Loonie Doctor on 03.17.20 at 5:58 pm

One thing that I have been pondering watching Canadian Energy get knocked back to the 1980s. What will happen there? Seems like an unbelievable degree of sell-off and tempting to buy in a contrarian way. Or are we witnessing the destruction of a politically-out-of-favor sector of the economy. I can see JT completely ignoring the issue. He can sound good talking about helping people directly and about our health. No one will notice that this major aspect of Canada’s economic kick in the nards is unaddressed except AB/SK/NL. Plus, it fits his narrative to date and he is not really at risk of losing Western votes anyway since he has next to none. Frightening to watch. Maybe, he will surprise us. It is a tempting buy from a contrarian standpoint but scary. Guess that is why being contrarian is hard.
-LD

#35 Niagara Region on 03.17.20 at 6:01 pm

I wonder how many of the 64.5% entire home/apartment listings in the 23,524 total AirBnB listings in Toronto will now shift to long-term rentals for people who live and work in Toronto.

See the geographical distribution here:
https://twitter.com/MortgageSandbox/status/1239914309356060676/photo/3

#36 45north on 03.17.20 at 6:04 pm

IHCTD9: Just got back from an overnighter in Montreal.

pretty wild for a guy from Dummer Township

#37 CJ Bob on 03.17.20 at 6:05 pm

sitting in a single CIBC savings account because up to last week, we were earning 3%
_________________
Assuming this was suppose to be 0.3%?

#38 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 6:05 pm

@FreeBird, Best wishes to you and your husband.

#39 Lost...but not leased on 03.17.20 at 6:09 pm

#23 Toronto_CA on 03.17.20 at 5:29 pm
Layoffs are starting MUCH quicker than expected. There will be blood in the streets.

=======================

Yeah…..I really don’t have much concern with what I feel is a medical false flag..

The economy is UNwinding, and concurrently the major damage done as we speak….the Joker in the deck is how and when things will be back to normal.

I hate to say it…but many businesses won’t survive and the unemployment will spike upwards.

“Order out of Chaos” = next

#40 espressobob on 03.17.20 at 6:09 pm

Down the road this corona thingy may prove to be one of the greatest mysteries that drove the markets down. A topic of notoriety.

In the mean time, I’m buying.

#41 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 6:10 pm

#26 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 5:34 pm
@#24 MF, Or a spike in murder suicides.
—- –

No way, it’s gonna be hump city out there over the next few weeks.

Remember the ice storm in PQ? Once you take in account that Women only ovulate for a day or so per month, a bunch are on BC, and that loads of guys are snipped by their mid 30’s – any perceptible baby boom at all means folks were getting down like gangbusters.

Lock up a couple who still have at least some attraction for each other with nothing to do, and it’s only a matter of time before there is a meeting of the… ah, “minds”.

#42 Mr Canada on 03.17.20 at 6:17 pm

The remedy for C19 will be worse than the disease.

#43 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 6:19 pm

Ok, strategizing for this quarantine:

Continue buying equities: Not maple. Berkshire. GEO with its government contracts and giant dividend (yes, private prisons… what can I say? It’s profitable). KO. Somero- this one could roar as China restarts.

Treat this slow time as a holiday with lots of exercise and dog training, relaxation and blogging. Maybe steelhead fishing.

Try to avoid sardonic expression for the oh-so-sincere social distancers. Stop rolling eyes. Speak platitudes. Don’t say, “Oh yes, that’s not ridiculous at all” while seriously stroking beard. Follow wife’s lead.

Read. Watch Breaking Bad.

#44 KJ on 03.17.20 at 6:21 pm

Hey Garth. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but doesn’t it seem odd all these CEO’s that are all of sudden stepping down from these huge companies? Microsoft, Disney, Boeing, Wells Fargo and a couple others. Could be a huge coincidence but seems theres a lot going on behind the curtain.

You are so. – Garth

#45 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 6:26 pm

#27 Honest Realtor on 03.17.20 at 5:36 pm

I’ll buy into markets like this only when Buffett does.

————————-

Any info you get on Buffett’s buying will be sadly out of date by the time it’s available.

Buy good companies at good valuation. If Buffett already holds their shares, even better.

#46 Penny Henny on 03.17.20 at 6:26 pm

Hey Smokie.
You must be killing it in Forex

#47 SHANE GALLANT on 03.17.20 at 6:28 pm

any thoughts on buying into Suncor? you should do a stock blog.

#48 Lost...but not leased on 03.17.20 at 6:39 pm

#35 Niagara Region on 03.17.20 at 6:01 pm
I wonder how many of the 64.5% entire home/apartment listings in the 23,524 total AirBnB listings in Toronto will now shift to long-term rentals for people who live and work in Toronto.

================

Good point:

I was wondering the same thing re: these short term rentals…

#49 Attrition on 03.17.20 at 6:39 pm

Yup, definitely fishing. Lake trout for starters, then maybe try some steelies in the Cowichan. I generally repel fish, however maybe my kids, now likely out of school for the rest of the year, will be good luck.

Man, when this blows over in a few weeks or so, pent up demand to buy buy buy is going be crazy. Then there will be shortages…but only of luxury goods, toys, cars, boats, bikes, RVs etc. Won’t be able to give bog roll away…

Here’s hoping oil stays low low low! Thinking a cross Canada trip will be in the cards–will never be cheaper to drive this great and divided land.

#50 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 6:43 pm

@#43 SailAway re: ” Ok, strategizing for this quarantine

Try to avoid sardonic expression for the oh-so-sincere social distancers. Stop rolling eyes. Speak platitudes. Don’t say, “Oh yes, that’s not ridiculous at all” while seriously stroking beard. Follow wife’s lead”.

So you need your wife to help you figure out how to behave? Figures.

I presume that young people, such as the ones discussed in the article below, don’t inspire you or are considered role models for your own children, rather they cause you to “roll your eyes”.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-march-17-2020-1.5500446/this-med-student-can-t-join-the-frontline-covid-19-fight-so-he-s-offering-childcare-to-those-who-can-1.5500475

#51 espressobob on 03.17.20 at 6:46 pm

#47 SHANE GALLANT

Suncor is an individual stock you might consider avoiding. Better owning ETFs that track major indices over the long run all though recent events might move ones mindset.

Owning the major indices has a big advantage over a listed stock. Less risk owning a basket of energy stocks within a index sounds more productive than trying to hit a home run.

Try a global approach, way safer.

#52 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 6:48 pm

@#41 re: “#26 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 5:34 pm
@#24 MF, Or a spike in murder suicides.
—- –

No way, it’s gonna be hump city out there over the next few weeks.

Not in my household…gotta go “look for TP” (i.e sneak out to th BF’s place for that). Guys watch your wives.

#53 Nonplused on 03.17.20 at 6:49 pm

Reporting from the Co-op this time:

Plenty of food in the produce section but other parts of the store looked like they had been ransacked. Meats especially. (And toilet paper of course, despite a “one per customer” policy. There was some paper towels though.) There was some pasta, particularly the whole grain kind that nobody likes, but the shelves were mostly bear. All the pasta sauce was gone. The freezer section had been hit hard as well, particularly for things like frozen pizzas. It was kind of interesting to see what sorts of things people were loading up on and what they weren’t. For instance breakfast cereal, which has a long shelf life, was actually on sale. So were Pop Tarts. Not exactly health food but again a long shelf life. There was lots of water and pop. Lots of milk too but there was a run on eggs for some reason. One fellow in line had nothing but 3 big bags of flour and a bag of potatoes in his cart.

I blame the seniors taking advantage of the new “golden hour”. But where they are going to store all that meat I don’t know.

Heard on the radio that the presidents of Walmart and Lob-law’s (Superstore) are telling people to chill, they aren’t going to run out of food or toilet paper. Their supply lines are working fine. So hopefully once people run out of space to store toilet paper we’ll actually see some on the shelves again. I still don’t understand how this got to be a survival item over dried beans and rice. Pasta I can see. But you can’t eat toilet paper. And there are other ways to clean your butt.

#54 john m on 03.17.20 at 6:50 pm

Happy St Patrick’s day Garth!…i am following your advice and self-inebriating at home :-)

#55 Slim on 03.17.20 at 6:50 pm

I predict the sale of Prozac to go way up!

#56 MF on 03.17.20 at 6:52 pm

41 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 6:10 pm

Lol.

A lot of my friends are single. This is the game nowadays:

Hook up on Tinder, message for a bit, “meet up” then text each other when the umm, need arises again. Usually it goes stale after a month or so. Repeat.

Couples are used to being together and usually aren’t attracted to each other like that anymore. Familiarity breeds contempt.

Add in the cost of children/housing and everyone is scared to have kids (unless religious).

Not happening. The system is dead. Killed by low rates, a me me me attitude, and i dont know what else.

MF

#57 Drinking on 03.17.20 at 6:55 pm

Very civilized today in Cowtown; very slow, calm, somewhat sombre, picked up a carton of eggs, plenty of stock, people calm, even though we are under emergency law, respecting the stay at home policy, I guess, floods, fires, dire cold,winter storms,heat, drought, low oil prices, numerous ups and downs with our economy; is a Canadian (all Canadians) understanding for those of us that have been through hardships to appreciate other citizens; especially our Hospital workers, volunteers, and all that are respecting what politicians are asking (you may not like it) but if it saves one life??? For most of us it will be a bad cold; for others, not!

Good post Garth; that is the issue, how low can or will it go? Cannot make sense of the market now or probably in the six months; I am diversified but like most of us; ouch, we have been hit hard!

#58 Smoking Man on 03.17.20 at 6:57 pm

#46 Penny Henny on 03.17.20 at 6:26 pm
Hey Smokie.
You must be killing it in Forex
….
Always. Can’t lose on my sys.

Going to make a fortune on equities when the hype dies down. Check out clip.

https://youtu.be/yn074EB5NNY

#59 Lost...but not leased on 03.17.20 at 6:59 pm

#44 KJ on 03.17.20 at 6:21 pm
Hey Garth. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but doesn’t it seem odd all these CEO’s that are all of sudden stepping down from these huge companies? Microsoft, Disney, Boeing, Wells Fargo and a couple others. Could be a huge coincidence but seems theres a lot going on behind the curtain.

You are so. – Garth

==================

Conspiracy theorists, by definition are at least able to count up to “2”

N/C

#60 Oracle of Ottawa on 03.17.20 at 7:04 pm

I would not be investing in this market right now. If you expect the turnaround is going to happen in a few days or a weeks. Think again. It took months for the teck bubble and financial crises in the past to turn around. This choppiness in the market will continue for a little while and then we’ll go through the slow burn period. That’s the time to get in.

#61 Attrition on 03.17.20 at 7:04 pm

We need to see the statistics for current and historical fatalities from cold and flu by age group. Because unless all Covid-19 deaths represent a NET INCREASE in seasonal fatalities, we’re not looking at the numbers or facts accurately.

Have cold and flu related deaths dropped? Have total expected deaths increased? Or would all the people supposedly dying from Covid-19 have died from any other cold of flu virus?

Covid-19 deaths have to represent an net increase in fatalities, otherwise…this isn’t actually happening.

#62 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 7:07 pm

#41 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 6:10 pm

No way, it’s gonna be hump city out there over the next few weeks.

——————-

#26 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 5:34 pm

Or a spike in murder suicides.

——————-

IH: yes, definitely, for normal people.

It’s possible BD has a point, though. If one’s spouse were super annoyingly OCD, never accepted criticism, hated men, and carried on dead arguments until hell froze over, I could see this outcome.

#63 Pedro on 03.17.20 at 7:07 pm

My neighbour just sold their house. Listed for 2.7m can’t wait to see what kind of haircut they took!!

#64 MPAC on 03.17.20 at 7:11 pm

Yes Garth, last week, I did buy Royal and TD, CU, BAC, DIS, CNR, V, ko, CHP.UN and ENB. Assuming the market continues to decrease my wife and I have 75k left to deploy.

Happy investing all!

#65 will on 03.17.20 at 7:12 pm

Stay at home and self-inebriate.

And read The Decameron to each other.

Are liquor stores considered essential services? I sure hope so. If they are not then there really will be an outbreak.

#66 Shawn Allen on 03.17.20 at 7:16 pm

Flu Death Rate

I just read a claim that the flu has a death rate of 1.5%. That seems preposterously high on its face.

Someone on this blog asked if that is based on actual death certificate cause of death or rather some kind of modeling where the flu contributes to death in people dying of other causes. (Like air pollution supposedly caused thousands of deaths in Canada except you won’t find that cause on a single death certificate I am willing to bet).

The public pays little attention to numbers on annual flu deaths because they probably understand intuitively that the rate (and number) is simply not that high. They call BS.

If the flu actually had a death rate of anything close to 1% we’d have been a lot more concerned about that for years.

#67 Shawn Allen on 03.17.20 at 7:19 pm

Down With Handshakes

I have thought for years that hand shaking is a dumb idea. Really dumb after a curling game where many people probably had their nose run at least a bit and not a few wiped it on their hands.

At my gym the trainers often do fist bumps instead. I had already started switching to fist bumps even before this.

#68 Ustabe on 03.17.20 at 7:20 pm


We need to see the statistics for current and historical fatalities from cold and flu by age group. Because unless all Covid-19 deaths represent a NET INCREASE in seasonal fatalities, we’re not looking at the numbers or facts accurately.

Have cold and flu related deaths dropped? Have total expected deaths increased? Or would all the people supposedly dying from Covid-19 have died from any other cold of flu virus?

Covid-19 deaths have to represent an net increase in fatalities, otherwise…this isn’t actually happening.

I think this post gave me cancer!

#69 Deplorable Dude on 03.17.20 at 7:26 pm

We’re burning the house to the ground to kill the termites….

Our local COSTCO was all out of the panic bought goods, but my 2 local grocery stores were fine, albeit goods still in boxes in the isles as they hadn’t had a chance to restock.

Don’t Costco shoppers realise there are other stores?

#70 Shawn Allen on 03.17.20 at 7:28 pm

Restaurants and the virus

My concern would not primarily or directly be the other customers (at other tables)

I am far more concerned that a server gets it then carries your plate not far from their mouth and then stands over you asking the idiotic rhetorical question of how are the first few bites. The cooks too would be a concern. Great way to spread to many.

Others at the same table are also a concern. On a cruise in 2018 I refused to sit next to guy at our table who liked to talk a lot while looking at whoever was next to him during dining. (Our group of four was assigned four strangers to dine with, nice people, but at least one was a bit of a spitter)

Many years ago I told my kids I wanted to invent the dinner plate “spit guard”. Food should be carried out covered and then eaten while maybe half the plate is still covered. And dining companions especially non-family should know better than to point their mouth towards the person next to them while dining.

Okay, I know, we can’t all become hermits. But a bit of common sense about droplets spewing from mouths has long been in order.

#71 MPAC on 03.17.20 at 7:28 pm

@#23. So true, I spoke to my brother earlier today, he’s a VP at Bell, and he said Bell will use this as an opportunity to lay people off in the coming days and weeks – He’s got a few people in his division that he is going to let go.

Rough times ahead…

#72 Sheesh on 03.17.20 at 7:31 pm

#276 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 2:23 pm
#269 Attrition on 03.17.20 at 1:44 pm

———————–

Haha, yes.

A specific test is developed for COV-19 and applied in different countries:

Hey, look! It’s here!

Here, too!

Wow, same with this country! Must be a pandemic!

Look, I just exhumed an 18th-century soldier, and he had COV-19. It traveled back in time!

There’s no possibility this disease that acts just like a normal cold or flu could possibly have been around before we started to test specifically for it, is there?

No! Apostacy!
“……..
You two are a hoot. How about letting the experts (you know, virologists, epidemiologists) do their expert things, and you stick to your expert things. Which obviously aren’t in the medical field.

#73 JSS on 03.17.20 at 7:32 pm

I’d say that there are going to be better deals for equities during the next 2-4 weeks. Wait for another 20-25% drop. Wait for Canadian big five banks to average 7% dividend. Then begin the waltz

#74 beetle.juice on 03.17.20 at 7:33 pm

Backed up the truck and loaded up on equities yesterday at the close. tyvm.

#75 Shawn Allen on 03.17.20 at 7:33 pm

Death from a cold? Really?

#61 Attrition on 03.17.20 at 7:04 pm
We need to see the statistics for current and historical fatalities from cold and flu by age group. Because unless all Covid-19 deaths represent a NET INCREASE in seasonal fatalities, we’re not looking at the numbers or facts accurately.

****************************************
Seriously, we got thousands on this blog, anyone ever heard of someone dying from a cold? Does someone have a death certificate with cause of death being common cold or even flu?

Someone in Italy reported the obituary pages in his area has gone from one page to eight pages or something like that.

But oh yes, they were ALL going to die anyway, eventually. So not too worry?

#76 Hindsight on 03.17.20 at 7:34 pm

Back in 2009 H1N1 infected 59mill Americans, 257k hospitalised and 12k died…..remember it ?…thought not…WHY ???
Not a single cancelled flight etc etc, yet this one is taking over the world ….again you have to ask yourselves why ??

#77 Hindsight on 03.17.20 at 7:35 pm

Please read this..

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/if-contrived-political-hysteria-what-objective

#78 NoName on 03.17.20 at 7:35 pm

ha ha…

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/16/tiktok-app-moderators-users-discrimination/

#79 grasshopper on 03.17.20 at 7:36 pm

It seems strange that people are focused on getting toilet paper.

If everyone went to the bank and withdrew $300 from their bank, then there would really be a panic.

#80 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 7:40 pm

#50 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 6:43 pm

@#43 SailAway re: ” Ok, strategizing for this quarantine

Try to avoid sardonic expression for the oh-so-sincere social distancers. Stop rolling eyes. Speak platitudes. Don’t say, “Oh yes, that’s not ridiculous at all” while seriously stroking beard. Follow wife’s lead”.

———————

So you need your wife to help you figure out how to behave?

———————

No, no… the sincere social distance lady’s wife.

I don’t go out of my way to offend unnecessarily. Do you take me for a barbarian?

#81 BlorgDorg on 03.17.20 at 7:40 pm

I’m glad Michael’s question came up; the temptation to buy is strong for those of us who have cash and/or cheap credit. I absolutely agree with Garth’s response that it’s a bad idea to borrow to invest, especially with income uncertainty.

However, I recently did some buying to dollar-cost-average down some ETFs that I was underweight in the sector anyway. I won’t give any names, but unit prices have been brutalized since I bought them several years ago and are currently at an all-time low. Yield is currently in the 7% range, so even borrowing at 6.45% would make it a pretty safe buy.

There are definitely strategic deals to be had, but as Garth says, nibble.

#82 TurnerNation on 03.17.20 at 7:42 pm

Someone mentioned yesterday UBI.
Yes wait two weeks and the drumbeat will begin m
So many furloughed workers. Universal basic income. You pay .
I saw Boeing already is looking for bailouts.
This crisis will do so much….coincidentally.

#83 Yukon Elvis on 03.17.20 at 7:48 pm

#41 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 6:10 pm

Lock up a couple who still have at least some attraction for each other with nothing to do, and it’s only a matter of time before there is a meeting of the… ah, “minds”.
………………………..

Back in the day we used to tickle each others fancies. What ever happened to that ?

#84 conan on 03.17.20 at 7:53 pm

The amount of people not working over the next two weeks, or more, is going to be huge.

Quite the biblical spike into the heart of every nation’s economy. i thought 911 was bad, Covid 19 will blow it out of the water.

#85 the Jaguar on 03.17.20 at 7:55 pm

Interesting. Edit acknowledged. Hasn’t Dorothy taken any interesting photos lately? We could use a distraction.
Maybe a featured cat photo?

#86 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 7:58 pm

#17 not 1st on 03.17.20 at 5:22 pm

Trump is sending $1000 to every person in the country. A bailout in the hands of the people first time ever.

Trudeau will be sending an autographed selfie to everyone else.

————————

Haha- $1,000 from Trump to all 4 of us. What a guy!

That, right there, is one reason he’s such a respected and well-loved man.

I’ll forward Justin’s selfie to him in my thank you letter.

#87 Nonplused on 03.17.20 at 7:58 pm

#34 Loonie Doctor on 03.17.20 at 5:58 pm

BC has a much larger oil & gas industry than they like to admit too. Possibly bigger than Saskatchewan. You can tell pretty much where it is by looking at the most recent federal election map. The blue half of BC, especially the northern half of that, is all in on oil & gas.

The producing regions are certainly getting kicked in the nards pretty hard, but as with the 80’s the market will bounce back. Oil & gas are essential to the world economy, despite anything that Greta may have been brainwashed to believe. Supply and demand will eventually come back into balance. The main question is how many companies have the resources (i.e. cash) to survive these prices and Covid until the market stabilizes and the Saudis and Russians have made their point to the rest of OPEC/US shale drillers? At some point there will be a huge buying opportunity but that day is not today. But you don’t want to miss it either so I think at some point you start making small purchases in the TSX or energy related funds. The oil industry is not going away.

#88 Jim on 03.17.20 at 8:05 pm

Brent 28.2100 1.3 -4.41 %

HOW LOW WILL THIS GO? $27BBL?!

#89 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 8:06 pm

@SailAway #276(prior post) re: “Hey, look! It’s here!

Here, too!

Wow, same with this country! Must be a pandemic!

Look, I just exhumed an 18th-century soldier, and he had COV-19. It traveled back in time!

There’s no possibility this disease that acts just like a normal cold or flu could possibly have been around before we started to test specifically for it, is there?

No! Apostacy! ”

Dear lord, are you that naive? Do you think China built new hospitals in a matter of days due to a virus that is nothing new? Do you think Italy is experiencing a medical system crisis for a virus that has been around forever just like the flu?

You are smarter than that aren’t you SA? Maybe this is just another attempt at trolling on your part. Or maybe you just don’t care whether or not our hospitals are overwhelmed and cannot meet the needs of their communities

#90 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.17.20 at 8:07 pm

#52 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 6:48 pm sez:

“Not in my household…gotta go “look for TP” (i.e sneak out to th BF’s place for that). Guys watch your wives.”
—————————————————
Yeah, I’m sure your cats will be really lonely.

#91 SOS on 03.17.20 at 8:09 pm

I’m not ok with how our government and world are reacting. Their bandwagon is the real paranoia and the real threat. They are not thinking straight.

#92 Lost...but not leased on 03.17.20 at 8:10 pm

#79 grasshopper on 03.17.20 at 7:36 pm
It seems strange that people are focused on getting toilet paper.

If everyone went to the bank and withdrew $300 from their bank, then there would really be a panic.
==========

UNintended consequences..

Watching news channel…the UK is experiencing an overload..possible clogging … to sewer systems..as people flushing hand wipes, paper towels etc….which would create an additional health hazard.

#93 Treasure Island CEO- Margin Call - .88 Cents Offshore on 03.17.20 at 8:13 pm

So, what asset to own going forward:

A house? Something you can live in, which is going to tank in value. I say yes – re: strategy to own sfd with rental opportunity.

Gold? Something that will go up and in the very least stabilize? Yes.

Cash? Something you can transact with physically or digitally but is going to become worthless. Zero purchasing power. No.

ETFs: Something that can gain in value but not necessarily eat although these will be back with value unless the lights never turn on again. Yes.

Bitcoin: it didn’t pan out. No.

Folks:

We are going to have hyperinflation and a complete reset. The stage is set.

The bailouts coming are ludicrous. Businesses need to fail. Ain’t happening. 2008 repeat on a larger scale.

WWIII hot war is set in the coming years. Nobody is paying this money back.

#94 oh bouy on 03.17.20 at 8:17 pm

@#56 MF on 03.17.20 at 6:52 pm
41 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 6:10 pm

Lol.

A lot of my friends are single. This is the game nowadays:

Hook up on Tinder, message for a bit, “meet up” then text each other when the umm, need arises again. Usually it goes stale after a month or so. Repeat.

Couples are used to being together and usually aren’t attracted to each other like that anymore. Familiarity breeds contempt.

Add in the cost of children/housing and everyone is scared to have kids (unless religious).

Not happening. The system is dead. Killed by low rates, a me me me attitude, and i dont know what else.

MF
___________________________________

good lord, this may be the saddest post i’ve ever read on here. You poor buggers (literally and figuratively)

#95 Doug in London on 03.17.20 at 8:21 pm

Darren, are you for real? If I had $1.1 million in cash I would have myself fired out of a cannon at a bare minimum speed of mach 20 and DIVE IN HEAD FIRST to a DIRT CHEAP stock market. To hell with buying another house. What you have now is a once in a 400 lifetimes opportunity. Well, what are you waiting for?

On a different not, while there’s all this worrying and bellyaching about the difficulties of COVID 19, there are advantages. I was out on my bike this afternoon and at 4:40 PM normally busy Richmond Street had the kind of traffic you would expect to see on Sunday morning. It was a pleasure being able to ride on this normally busy street without dodging 300,000 cars that you’re sure beyond the shadow of a doubt could have you flattened like cigarette paper at any time with no warning whatsoever. Wow, if this is what a pandemic looks like, let’s hope this bliss continues for some time.
Not only that, but I also love the bargains in the stock market right now. On the subject of bank shares, I scooped up some cheap XFN.

#96 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 8:23 pm

#56 MF on 03.17.20 at 6:52 pm
41 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 6:10 pm

Lol.

A lot of my friends are single. This is the game nowadays:

Hook up on Tinder, message for a bit, “meet up” then text each other when the umm, need arises again. Usually it goes stale after a month or so. Repeat.

Couples are used to being together and usually aren’t attracted to each other like that anymore. Familiarity breeds contempt.

Add in the cost of children/housing and everyone is scared to have kids (unless religious).

Not happening. The system is dead. Killed by low rates, a me me me attitude, and i dont know what else.

MF

——-

Yes, I’ve read that system is called “Netflix and chill”. Sounds very efficient.

So in light of this, I predict us older couples will be swinging from the chandeliers, but since we’re probably all shooting blanks – no baby boom.

Meanwhile, Tinder servers will be overwhelmed with traffic, and condoms will become harder to get your hands on than TP.

…and FWIW, familiarity doesn’t breed contempt, it breeds uhh, “creativity” (don’t ask).

I hear ya on the rest.

#97 Richmond will be under water by 2014 on 03.17.20 at 8:24 pm

I think the Canadian Banks might need a bailout.

Nearly everyone I know has been laid off indefinitely.
They all have gargantuan mortgages and many also have a LOC.

The government is going to suspend mortgage payments.

#98 not 1st on 03.17.20 at 8:24 pm

Regeneron’s CEO Says We Could Have a Covid-19 Treatment ‘Quickly

https://www.barrons.com/articles/regenerons-ceo-on-the-search-for-a-coronavirus-treatment-51584468863

#99 Loonie Doctor on 03.17.20 at 8:27 pm

#75 Shawn Allen

I fill out death certificates all the time. Yes, I have put flu and even other viruses that would be lumped in with colds as cause of death. It is real. It is not just how bad a virus is, but also how your immune system responds to it. You would be shocked. The family members of the person usually are.
-LD

#100 Gregor Samsa on 03.17.20 at 8:28 pm

#29 SmarterSquirrel

Smart comment.

The only thing I would add is that this is not ONLY a COVID-19 crisis, but it is also a financial crisis. In some ways, you may consider it a continuation of the 2009 crisis as nothing was resolved in 2009. Then, Central Banks just goosed the market back up with QE and low interest rates. They are trying to repeat now, but the cure is quickly becoming the disease.

I’ve read elsewhere that DOW 15K would be considered a “bottom.”

I took the opportunity today, perhaps the last, to get my last remaining money out the market that hadn’t already gone negative. Everything else is in for the ride to the bottom.

#101 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 8:31 pm

#52 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 6:48 pm
@#41 re: “#26 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 5:34 pm
@#24 MF, Or a spike in murder suicides.
—- –

No way, it’s gonna be hump city out there over the next few weeks.

Not in my household…gotta go “look for TP” (i.e sneak out to th BF’s place for that). Guys watch your wives.

——

That still counts, I guess.

I hope hubby gets a “hall pass” too, yes?

#102 not 1st on 03.17.20 at 8:32 pm

Did you know there were 100,000 deaths from snake bites last year. I am still looking for the breathless Jake Tapper coverage about that.

#103 kc on 03.17.20 at 8:33 pm

#66 Shawn Allen on 03.17.20 at 7:16 pm

Flu Death Rate

I just read a claim that the flu has a death rate of 1.5%. That seems preposterously high on its face.

Someone on this blog asked if that is based on actual death certificate cause of death or rather some kind of modeling where the flu contributes to death in people dying of other causes. (Like air pollution supposedly caused thousands of deaths in Canada except you won’t find that cause on a single death certificate I am willing to bet).

The public pays little attention to numbers on annual flu deaths because they probably understand intuitively that the rate (and number) is simply not that high. They call BS.

If the flu actually had a death rate of anything close to 1% we’d have been a lot more concerned about that for years.

My guess more people will die from shoving needles into their arms than from covid19 in canada…..

food for thought

#104 You know val on 03.17.20 at 8:37 pm

The meek shall inherit the earth let’s not forget the rule

#105 yorkville renter on 03.17.20 at 8:45 pm

MF – is there ANY joy in your life? I dont think I’ve ever read anything resembling a happy thought on here… you’re younger than me, which means you have the world ahead of you so you should be much happier than you are (not saying you’re 21, but still).

Wife and I decided to put our normal investment $$$ into an account and then buy once things settle… like smarter squirrel said – once covid cases slow, we’ll jump back in.

#106 akashic record on 03.17.20 at 8:46 pm

#77 Hindsight

Yes, the whole thing doesn’t make any sense.

The really novel characteristic of this pandemic is the level of panic by governments, big institutions, big businesses.

For the Average Joe this translates that “they” must know something, probably terrible, that is hidden from him.

I wonder if governments, big institutions, big businesses exercise the politically correct version of panic, that creates a panic bubble, at a level unknown before.

Average Joe-panic vs Governments-Big Institutions-Big Business-panic.

80-pound gorilla vs 800-pound gorilla.

Average Joe panics, nothing new there.

The Governments-Big Institutions-Big Business-panic is now on global, WTF-scale, that is supposed to be reserved for events, when hostile aliens show up. Not for an epi/pandemic.

No wonder, Average Joe senses that TP is going to have a huge role in the future.

#107 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 8:46 pm

#50 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 6:43 pm

So you need your wife to help you figure out how to behave?
——

Hey hey – there’s no shame in that.

How can you call yourself a Man if your behaviour is socially acceptable by nature?

There’s a damn good reason my shop is stuffed with chainsaws, axes, and bulldozers.

#108 SOS on 03.17.20 at 8:53 pm

Where is crossborder shopper?

#109 canuck on 03.17.20 at 8:55 pm

Garth, you’ve mentioned several times in the past, that many people are a paycheque away from not being to pay their bills. With more and more provinces declaring a state of emergency which will lead to massive layoffs very quickly, we will see if that is actually true.

#110 grasshopper on 03.17.20 at 8:56 pm

#92

I think people should have a bit of cash … just in case.

I don’t think the banks would have enough if most of the customers asked for $300 at the same time.

So withdraw $300 today or tomorrow or the day after.

#111 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 8:57 pm

#94 oh bouy on 03.17.20 at 8:17 pm

…You poor buggers (literally and figuratively)

———-

That’s a little presumptuous.

Maybe not.

#112 Stone on 03.17.20 at 8:59 pm

#96 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 8:23 pm
#56 MF on 03.17.20 at 6:52 pm
41 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 6:10 pm

Lol.

A lot of my friends are single. This is the game nowadays:

Hook up on Tinder, message for a bit, “meet up” then text each other when the umm, need arises again. Usually it goes stale after a month or so. Repeat.

Couples are used to being together and usually aren’t attracted to each other like that anymore. Familiarity breeds contempt.

Add in the cost of children/housing and everyone is scared to have kids (unless religious).

Not happening. The system is dead. Killed by low rates, a me me me attitude, and i dont know what else.

MF

——-

Yes, I’ve read that system is called “Netflix and chill”. Sounds very efficient.

So in light of this, I predict us older couples will be swinging from the chandeliers, but since we’re probably all shooting blanks – no baby boom.

Meanwhile, Tinder servers will be overwhelmed with traffic, and condoms will become harder to get your hands on than TP.

…and FWIW, familiarity doesn’t breed contempt, it breeds uhh, “creativity” (don’t ask).

I hear ya on the rest.

———

Condoms? Why use those?

#113 Wait There on 03.17.20 at 9:02 pm

The GFC convinced USA that real estate was not a good thing. This time when it is all done, the USA consumer will be much more conservative and will not consume as much. The crisis in the personal protective equipment for medical workers yet to arrive within 2 weeks will convince the USA that dependence on China for too many things has a price. The buy USA mantra will be stronger. People will be willing to pay more for domestic goods. The stay at home period will have people learning to cook again, eating out less and this will have long term effects on them. There will be a new normal….as they say, the Pendulum swings.
Oh yeah, In Canada our non investment in medical capacity will laid bare for people to see.
There;s going to be little talk of climate change for quite a while.

#114 David Paquette on 03.17.20 at 9:03 pm

For this CV19 challenge I have had made my goal twofold. First minimize the chance of contracting the sucker then avoid affecting others if I become an asymmetric (Thyroid Mary). I am tough against flus but it does lower my immune system and so I can suffer from the far more dangerous secondary inflections – sinus infections and walking pneumonia. It hasn’t happened for a decade since I stopped riding public transit and my evil cat died and dander – I thought her noble, despite.

Practicing social distancing and avoiding large social events is easy for me – when to wash hands not so much.

The biggest danger I see to me is picking my nose and rubbing my eyes. I use the heels of my hands to rub my eyes but nose picking requires more hand washing or my nasal Neti Pot. I am leaning to multiple daily Neti Pot but it is a new habit to learn.

Anyhow, my courage to go after bargains in the investment front is growing. I saw IMO at 14 – gad. My attention is on companies that can sustain income – who knows with delusional/lying bastards. I am happy to see a backlash against corporate share buybacks – a crime that should have been pursued a decade ago but still it is just a misdemeanor.

I just say, if you are not willing to push and do against status quo – you will be hoarding TP which the powers laugh. I guess I should have been in the Hunger Games.

I can use the flooding of free money. I am even thinking of using my LOC to buy down my mortgage but the risk/reward is high. If these talking heads and algos can get their sh*t together – I bet bottom today. Unfortunately, my losses are horrendous for me. I will just have to crawl off to a cave and hopefully live to fight again. I am not done.

#115 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 9:05 pm

@#101 re: ” I hope hubby gets a “hall pass” too, yes

Absolutely. Unfortunately, he has fewer options…shrug.

#116 Yukon Elvis on 03.17.20 at 9:08 pm

#104 You know val on 03.17.20 at 8:37 pm

The meek shall inherit the earth let’s not forget the rule.
…………………………….

Yah. If no one objects. Otherwise not.

#117 not 1st on 03.17.20 at 9:12 pm

A renowned research professor in France has reported successful results from a new treatment for Covid-19, with early tests suggesting it can stop the virus from being contagious in just six days.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-researcher-in-Marseille-posts-successful-Covid-19-coronavirus-drug-trial-results

#118 Shawn Allen on 03.17.20 at 9:20 pm

H1N1 did not cause a panci?

#76 Hindsight on 03.17.20 at 7:34 pm
Back in 2009 H1N1 infected 59mill Americans, 257k hospitalised and 12k died…..remember it ?…thought not…WHY ???
Not a single cancelled flight etc etc, yet this one is taking over the world ….again you have to ask yourselves why ??

************************************
The answer is in your comment. Your figures indicate a 0.02% death rate. So 50 to 500 times less than expected for Covid. (at 1% to 5%).

12,000 deaths in 59 million is 12 deaths in 59,000 cases. There is absolutely no comparison to Covid 19.

Looks like the panicky public are better at math than we might have thought.

#119 Mattl on 03.17.20 at 9:23 pm

41 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 6:10 pm

Lol.

A lot of my friends are single. This is the game nowadays:

Hook up on Tinder, message for a bit, “meet up” then text each other when the umm, need arises again. Usually it goes stale after a month or so. Repeat.

Couples are used to being together and usually aren’t attracted to each other like that anymore. Familiarity breeds contempt.

Add in the cost of children/housing and everyone is scared to have kids (unless religious).

Not happening. The system is dead. Killed by low rates, a me me me attitude, and i dont know what else.

MF

————————————————-

Jesus man you are a downer. Would love to know what circles you run in and how you became like this.

Cause the scenario you paint looks nothing like what I see everyday. My peer group is in mostly happy marriages, with 1-2 kids, most own homes. No one has been “killed by low rates”, quite the opposite, they recognized that money is free and took advantage. What you see as an idiot in an 800k home they can’t afford, our reality is 400k homes that doubled, and ten years of mortgage payments left. Payments that would get us a 2 bedroom in TO.

You need new friends, bottom line. If your group couldn’t find a way to make the last 12 years work good god they are going to get smoked when things actually go bad. You are running with losers, time to friend up.

#120 Mattl on 03.17.20 at 9:25 pm

My post above was for #56 MF

#121 WUL on 03.17.20 at 9:26 pm

Suncor?

Mo’ probs.

This is from 2017:

“The company expects to produce 680,000 to 720,000 boe/day next year, split approximately as follows:

Suncor’s base plant operations (including mining and SAGD): 420,000 – 450,000 bbl/day

Syncrude: 150,000 to 165,000 bbl/day (net to Suncor)”

Today? Say costs at $25 / bbl $Cdn. Back of napkin figgerin’ of a profit of about $1 buck per barrel of bitumen, absent hedges? (I don’t know today’s WCS price nor differential to WTI).

Pretty it ain’t. Unless my thinkin’ ain’t straight.

#122 Drinking on 03.17.20 at 9:29 pm

#75 Shawn Allen

Certainly not here to argue with you. We are all trying to understand on how bad this virus is. There are a few countries that are posting factual numbers and those numbers are worrisome; but others not so bad. It is much too early to tell what the real numbers are or going to be. Bad colds can lead to pneumonia; best just to take all precautions until we understand what the heck is going on. My concern in a mutation like many other flu’s and colds. We will all get through this! Dam, I guess we all needed a wake up call; the past few years have been a Sh*t show!

#123 DON on 03.17.20 at 9:32 pm

Hard not to feel some kind of nervousness given the convergence of multiple factors/issues. Virus, Debt, Credit, Oil, Hangover from 2008 to some degree,etc.

But yet the Virus is the only one that truly attacks what is really important and that is you and your community.

Governments/Politicians have become somewhat gun shy from acting too early, too late or not at all. It’s like they are all in quick sand or still on vacation or something else?

Hopefully, the next pandemic will be dealt with early on. At least now, it will be acceptable or mandatory that all governments act right away no matter the cost when certain conditions are reached. Some organized leadership could avert some of the angst/issues.

But now the Virus is amongst us and nerves stand on guard at the slightest contact with a stranger / public space. Spoke to friend on the phone today she is going to get tested, feels all the symptoms, but still talks a mile a minute so I have no doubts she will land a knock out punch on the virus. But still concerning.

I have kids that seem to mutate anything prior to infecting me and my wife. I’m always the last to get it and what a roller coaster ride that is. I can write the yearly sick season on the calendar almost to the exact weeks. Now we have asthma season as the pollen starts to spread in the dry winds. I know that all too well as a child, out grew the asthma but never that nasty pollen…. I know we need pollen.

Now is the time to lighten up, offer assistance and be patient with others. The other shit will happen regardless but till then take the necessary precautions and live life.

I’ll take my direction from my older sis an RN who cares for palliative care patients. If she panics I’ll panic. Essentially our leaders in this crisis are the front line health care workers we owe them a lot of consideration.

Low and behold grocery store manger’s have now come out saying that people shouldn’t panic as their supply chains have not been disrupted. Canada makes toilet paper FFS and it’s fishing season.

@FreeBird
I would take all necessary precautions just in case. All the best to you and your husband. Hopefully this will all be over sooner than later.

Take care all!

#124 DON on 03.17.20 at 9:37 pm

#24 MF on 03.17.20 at 5:29 pm

YouKnowWho on 03.17.20

Couldn’t be more wrong.

Couples, holed up together for two weeks with nothing else to do and no one else to talk to?

More like expect a spike in divorces.

MF
**************

Financial stress, already rocky relationship…locked up together.

‘The Big Divorce’ coming to a theatre near you.

#125 JSS on 03.17.20 at 9:41 pm

Canadian banks have many levers to pull. Bail outs and dividend cuts are highly unlikely. They basically run the country including the federal government.

Most likely case is dividends are frozen for about three years. As the economy chugs along, rates will rise and dividends will too

#126 Sold Out on 03.17.20 at 9:45 pm

#99 Loonie Doctor on 03.17.20 at 8:27 pm
#75 Shawn Allen

I fill out death certificates all the time. Yes, I have put flu and even other viruses that would be lumped in with colds as cause of death. It is real. It is not just how bad a virus is, but also how your immune system responds to it. You would be shocked. The family members of the person usually are.
-LD

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Thanks for throwing the weight of your knowledge and experience behind the education of fellow commenters. It sometimes feels like trying to explain to anti-vaxxers that people still die from chicken pox.

#127 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.17.20 at 9:47 pm

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

In Canada, as of this morning, there are 424 cases of COVID-19, that is 0.0011% of the population. Currently the virus mostly affects the elderly and those with immune deficiencies. Even if the amount of cases doubled every day for the week, that would bring us to 54,272 cases, or 0.14% of the population.

In the US the numbers are very similar, with 3487 cases, or 0.0010% of the population.

Even Italy, which is considered a hot spot has an infection rate of 0.04% (27980 / 60.48m).

China, at 187,787 cases or 0.013% of the population.

From the WHO website; Illness due to COVID-19 infection is generally mild, especially for children and young adults.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

Human Coronavirus Types

Coronaviruses are named for the crown-like spikes on their surface. There are four main sub-groupings of coronaviruses, known as alpha, beta, gamma, and delta.

Human coronaviruses were first identified in the mid-1960s. The seven coronaviruses that can infect people are:

Common human coronaviruses

229E (alpha coronavirus)
NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
OC43 (beta coronavirus)
HKU1 (beta coronavirus)
Other human coronaviruses

MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)
People around the world commonly get infected with human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1.

Sometimes coronaviruses that infect animals can evolve and make people sick and become a new human coronavirus. Three recent examples of this are 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html

I get that some are scared – but let’s have some perspective please. Wash your hands, self-isolate if you feel you need to, and practice this social distancing… The protocols being enforced right now are already extreme, but they will flatten the curve.

#128 Ronaldo on 03.17.20 at 9:49 pm

Interesting article in the Journal of Commerce on the 1918 Spanish Flu.

https://canada.constructconnect.com/joc/news/labour/2020/03/remembering-the-impact-of-1918-spanish-flu-outbreak-on-b-c-workers

#129 JSS on 03.17.20 at 10:07 pm

Last one from me tonight…

Message I got from the blue bank:

“The rates will be taking a large jump tomorrow due to the instability on the market place created by the Coronavirus.“

#130 Jimbo on 03.17.20 at 10:19 pm

#104 You know val on 03.17.20 at 8:37 pm
The meek shall inherit the earth let’s not forget the rule

Should have been translated as….

“The level headed shall inherit the earth ”

or you could say

“Those who are gentle and hide their strong will shall inherit the earth”

just saying….

———————–
Off to the porch to sing Nessun Dorma.

#131 Sail Away on 03.17.20 at 10:36 pm

Well, our Corvids seem just fine, despite the hoopla.

Crows are nesting in their usual trees, Stellers jays the same. The odd raven here and there.

I feed the crows by throwing dog food on our roof. They knock on the window in the mornings if I’m late. And they nest in groups, or at least hang out that way. 3-4 babies will have 20 adults around. The cat is terrorized. Squirrels too.

#132 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 10:49 pm

#112 Stone on 03.17.20 at 8:59 pm

Condoms? Why use those?

——

Because Covid-19 of course.

#133 yvr_lurker on 03.17.20 at 11:15 pm

Listen to the authorities. Stay at home and self-inebriate.

Best Comment I have heard all week. This is exactly what I am doing; catching up on reading and am going to organize a little tutoring activity which I will run in math and science for my kid and a few of his friends so that they can at least finish the grade 10 curriculum. All are willing.

However, in the end, we really can’t forget where this plague originated from that has/will kill so many and cause world-wide financial upheaval. We were lucky with SARS that it was not so communicable, but this one is different. If many families are all living on the same street and one “neighbour” has twice had a major gas leak which inadvertently blows up your neighborhood, you might start getting a little pissed.

#134 MF on 03.17.20 at 11:19 pm

I guess I hit somewhat of a nerve with my hook up culture comment lol. It was kind of tongue in cheek but I’ll explain.

For what it’s worth. I’m actually in a great relationship. Yeah yeah I complain about house prices and central banks but isnt that what this blog is for?

I’ve actually been pretty lucky in all aspects of my life. No other complaints.

Anyways,

Dating today is very a loose term (no pun intended). Marriage is almost feared by most guys today. 30-40% of my friends are perpetually single and not looking to have children. It’s one girl and then the next. And the ladies are happy to play the game too. That leaves 60-70% of us in relationships that are almost always long term.

Those who take the plunge are usually under pressure from family, or their girl friends after dating for years. It’s just basic biology. What’s new an exciting elicits a big dopamine response and is addictive. What is familiar does not. Family member is a psychologist. Very rarely are both partners equally interested/attracted. One is 99% of the time more vested, the other looking for more “excitement”. Over time it’s tough to keep the whole thing going, hence divorce. Being forced to spend every waking moment together, like today, would cause friction (no pun intended) IMO for couples who live together, and who have been together for years.

MF

#135 Lillooet, BC on 03.17.20 at 11:23 pm

Shawn Allen: what stocks are your watch list?

#136 Ronaldo on 03.17.20 at 11:24 pm

For those of you interested in the precious metals and especially AG, in my opinion, we are now at the beginning of what is going to be a huge runup in the precious metals shares similar to what we had back at the beginning of 2016. We are seeing a total disconnect between the price of silver and the shares of these companies. The ratio of silver to gold hit an all time high of 122/1 this morning which is absolutely incredible when you consider that it comes out of the ground at a ration 10/1. The demand for silver bullion and especially the 1 oz. Maples is such that suppliers have run out of stock, in particular Kitco. The premium being asked has risen to 75% and greater over spot price. This is the same situation that occured back in spring of 2008 when the price hit a high of $21.79 that March and proceeded to drop to $8.88 by October. None of the suppliers had any stock and mints could not get any blanks for producing the coins as the demand was so great. The current price is not reflecting this demand and for those who follow the silver market, they are aware of the reasons. Opportunities like this only present themselves very rarely and generally at times like we are going through now. The shares of these companies are going to skyrocket. Keep an eye on FR, EDR, MAG, GPR, HEP.

#137 Blog Bunny on 03.17.20 at 11:33 pm

”Just as it’s unwise to sell anything in the middle of a storm, it’s equally imprudent to buy – especially with money you don’t own, and costing three times the inflation rate to access.”

Not wise, especially since we do not know when the storm will end.

This Bunny is not afraid of food shortages. No harm in some water fasting. Also, when you fast, you poop much less so no need for a mountain of TP.

We have a lot of extra hay for the bunnies though. Their bowels need to keep moving.

#138 China on 03.18.20 at 12:23 am

I find it interesting there is no news about China these days. If it’s following the pattern the cases are dropping significantly and therefor Ethier economy should be on the mend.
So what happens there will happen here?

So what’s hot right now
Amazon is hiring
If China is coming online they will need oil and lots of it.

I don’t know what to do I am hanging on but selling into up trends my TFSA portfolio is down 10 percent
My own trading account is down 50 percent because I borrowed and bought on the way down
Cannot figure out why good companies like manual life are dropping like a stone and great dividend?
I mentioned Algonquin power yesterday and it rose today
So why one and not the other?
I don’t see manual life going under

Short term it will be worst.
Lots of volatility more down days than up

I heard the best time to invest will be at the peak of cases.
So I ask again what’s happening in China are they recovering?

#139 Not So New guy on 03.18.20 at 12:31 am

Banks bang back a few billion every quarter. This is in good times OR bad. Yet very few people clue in

If banks are failing, everything else has first, possibly including the government. You need to be totally incompetent or corrupt like Deutsch Bank for your bank to fail, especially in Canada

I’d buy banks but I’m not into taking blood money

#140 Sydneysider on 03.18.20 at 12:34 am

Thanks for the link to the broadcast. It is interesting to listen to the views of people who have to interpret, rather than exploit, news of this kind.

#141 Claire on 03.18.20 at 12:34 am

What I wonder is why did the bond ETF-s drop? Weren’t they supposed to rise?

#142 Just curiois on 03.18.20 at 12:35 am

Just wondering
WhAt happened to all the planes? Are they parked somewhere
What happened to all the cruise ships?
What’s going on with world pollution ?
Are they still moving oil? I am thing IPL and Enbridge.

What happen to all the call girls?
What will happen to all this food everyone bought?
What’s happening in China?
What businesses are prospering ?
Is everyone leading a quieter and better simple life at home.
Will this change the world how we look at things
What happens to all the world debt after this?

Good night thanks for reading
Just curious

#143 crazyfox on 03.18.20 at 12:59 am

#127 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.17.20 at 9:47 pm

229E (alpha coronavirus) Part of the common cold 16%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_229E

NL63 (alpha coronavirus) Affects infants (mothers can pass it on, works in tandem with other virus’s.

OC43 (beta coronavirus) Also part of the common cold, effects humans and cattle, 29 strains.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43

HKU1 (beta coronavirus) Was a novel virus in 2004 from mice, not widespread in human pops to my knowledge and most likely not a factor.

When we look at the sub-family of Coronavirus and genera, (alpha, beta, gamma, delta) you will find them:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

What vaccine researchers will need to look for are Serotypes that have crossover effects from immune system antibodies within the vaccine. I have every confidence that a vaccine will work for COVID-19. It’s the immune system reaction to the antigens of COVID-19’s 2nd strain re-infection & antigens of infections of other future human related Corona Virus’s that are in question. Investors will need to become familiar with the Hoskin’s effect, more known in modern terms as Original antigenic Sin:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin

How it works is, you come up with a vaccine that works for COVID-19 and it works against 1 strain or maybe both strains(there are 2), the immune system antibodies respond strongly against the antigens and COVID-19 is contained. The vaccine sails through Phase 1 & 2 trials. The challenge is what the re-infection of other similar Corona virus’s (229E, NL63, OC43) will have on a vaccinated immune system response.

“If” (the billion dollar question) there is a Hoskin’s effect or original antigenic sin, the immune system continues to create antigens for COVID-19 in response to similar Corona Virus antigens but COVID-19 antibodies have little effect against identifying the re-infection of other Corona Virus’s since antigens are slightly different delaying immune system response and allowing, say, a human to human Corona virus causing 15% of the world’s common cold to morph into something much more serious, perhaps as deadly as COVID-19.

This is precisely the reason why we have in vivo (live) human trials in 3 phases and it is for these reasons, that phase 3 trials prove the most difficult to pass.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases_of_clinical_research

Even then, vaccine shortfalls may not flush out until phase 4. (general population) Obviously, I’m not re-inventing the wheel here, vaccine researchers know all this. What I am saying is that investors need to know as well. There will be claims of vaccines going forward generating speculation and profits further geared for research and share value making CEO’s millionaires overnight if they aren’t already but be wary. If the language doesn’t address a potential Hoskin’s effect and genetic drift straight up in live trials, its a vaccine that likely won’t pass muster.

#144 DON on 03.18.20 at 2:07 am

“US retail sales fell in February, indicating consumer spending, the main driver of the economy, began to slow even before outbreak measures were put in place.”

#145 Piet on 03.18.20 at 2:38 am

#109 canuck on 03.17.20 at 8:55 pm

“Garth, you’ve mentioned several times in the past, that many people are a paycheque away from not being to pay their bills. With more and more provinces declaring a state of emergency which will lead to massive layoffs very quickly, we will see if that is actually true.”
____________

Those who are so far into the debt lifestyle that they are one missed paycheque away from insolvency may be the people who have been hoarding tp and food. From their perspective it makes sense to blow the last bit of their available credit on necessities.

#146 Econ101erz on 03.18.20 at 3:28 am

#127 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.17.20 at 9:47 pm

The protocols being enforced right now are already extreme, but they will flatten the curve.”

Okay back to basics a bit here with some supply demand curve from first lecture of Econ 101.

Interesting how the Euro gov’ts are all talking about “flattening the curve”, which is basically asking/forcing the public to defer getting sick so as to spread the demand for limited medical services out over time and keep the demand curve below the available supply.

What the Chinese did was different, in constructing massive amount of short term temporary medical capacity dedicated to this illness, thereby increasing the supply (combined with lockdown to decrease demand). They were able to absorb the excess demand through this approach. Unfortunately, labor and materials are probably too expensive in Europe to follow the Chinese approach.

#147 Jim on 03.18.20 at 6:15 am

Brent 27.8400 0.78 -2.73 %

India has to consume more oil!

#148 ANON on 03.18.20 at 6:50 am

Figure that out.

Ummm, hmmm… this being a taboo subject, but then, these being public figures, may I just say … ummm….how shall I phrase it? Those figures don’t look good? Is that appropriate?

#149 slick on 03.18.20 at 7:07 am

todays rants;

banks are looking to cut employee/customer interaction.
this will give them, and many other businesses, an excuse to further the goal.

Banks are somewhat hesitant to lend out all this extra money that is being dispensed. Too much risk for a fragile economy. Rates on loans aren’t falling with the prime rate.

The gov’t is pouring money into the financial system, and the banks and bigshots will end up with most of it. Loans grants and bailouts will only be partially repaid, and the super rich get super richer. Any cheques to the average person will end up being spent on rent, mortgages, canned food or TP.

I liked the idea of using the cruise ships for floating isolation tanks if this gets serious. one floor everyday, and work your way bottom to top for 14 days. Private bathrooms, TVs, nice beds, and room service to boot.

Once they figure out that passing cash is the transmission point, the gov’t will get their wish of all electronic payments. Nice and trackable and taxable. shut down the money laundering and tax evasion with one felled swoop. The lefties will eat this up.

These gov’ts are making up rules as they go, with no consideration of the unintended consequences. Close restaurants, but what about food suppliers? they get backed up, [as i will be in about 3 weeks] and food goes rotting while the grocery shelves are empty. These pipelines took years to perfect, and the gov’t just expects them to go into a holding pattern for a few months??

My wife went to COSTCO yesterday, she was there at the open. 1 hour in line to get some TP and hand sanitizer. 1 pkg per customer. She commended the staff on keeping things orderly. the lineup was about 1/4 mile long, standing. Walmarts shelves were bare of TP, canned soups, dog food, and eggs. A stop at Sobeys wasn’t very productive either.

Finally;
Michael needs to understand the leverage issue. you gotta be nimble and courageous to make it work. It never did for me. Biggest problem is not having enough reserves to cover the margin to hold on to your position [convictions]. Those margin calls eat your inside like a bad tapeworm. I hate that feeling.

#150 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.18.20 at 7:24 am

You have to wonder how many companies are using this Covid “crisis” to whack staff.
I was in a commercial warehouse the other day(not open to the public, only random business customers) and there were no office staff. Management sent them all home on Friday and please call 1-800-who cares for info or service.

Call it the cynic in me but business wouldnt use this to determine what staff they need or not.
I expect a lot of layoffs to end up being permanent.

#151 maxx on 03.18.20 at 7:53 am

@ #5

….and the bubbles are increasingly easier to prick. The toolbox is empty, save for the scrap of used wire and bubble gum wrapper under the tray.

The mechanics of the mess are also more transparent and remediation more extreme in terms of cost. Global events send shock waves through economies more frequently and easily because of our interconnectedness. Stability is a thing of the past, which, somewhat sadly, if you know where to look, can be very good thing. Problem is that it benefits fewer and fewer people.

There is no tool for loss of trust.

#152 gfd on 03.18.20 at 8:04 am

Is this a bailout of 2008 all over again?

Ottawa to buy up to $50-billion in mortgages in a move that harkens back to the crisis of 2008.

Ottawa says the move is “immediate, significant and effective action” to support Canadians and businesses facing financial hardship

In response to the COVID-19 virus pandemic, the federal government said Monday that it is preparing to buy up to $50 billion of insured mortgage pools through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

#153 maxx on 03.18.20 at 8:10 am

@ #18

Yes indeed!

#154 Tater on 03.18.20 at 8:17 am

Can’t stop laughing at the charts of APT and Tesla. Used to think doctors were the best counterparties, but maybe it’s engineers.

#155 bdwy on 03.18.20 at 8:18 am

the loonie getting CRUSHED again .

we just crossed 1.40 days ago, now at 1.438.

heading for 1.50?

#156 Jager on 03.18.20 at 8:24 am

An absolute (figurative) earthquake is shaking the financial realm. Where will we be this fall and more importantly one or two years from now? The world will be very much different.

Note: It appears the U.S. Treasury is heading towards a digital currency which will at first parallel printed fiat.

#157 Stone on 03.18.20 at 8:44 am

#132 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 10:49 pm
#112 Stone on 03.17.20 at 8:59 pm

Condoms? Why use those?

——

Because Covid-19 of course.

———

Sure, if they have full body condoms.

#158 Raging Ranter on 03.18.20 at 8:55 am

@#152 GFD, the 2008 Insured Mortgages Purchase Program (IMPP) was not a bailout, and neither is this. That was done to ensure banks had the capital to keep lending. So is this. The mortgages CMHC buys don’t just disappear. They are an asset that goes on the government books. Since they are already CMHC insured, no extra risk is assumed by the government by buying them.

#159 OK, Doomer on 03.18.20 at 9:16 am

Just finished reading a good article about the lack of reliable data on the CV. For instance, we don’t even have a basic study that can shed light on how many people have the virus and are walking around with nothing more than a sniffle. We could all be infected already and not even know it.

We jumped straight to panic mode and the media is stoking it all.

Italy has a high death rate, true, but they’re only testing people already at death’s door. Iran has a cultural tradition that virtually ensures saliva transfer of live virus, so no real surprise that CV is off the hook there. Meanwhile, Hong Kong protests (and protesters), billionaires who oppose the regime and southern Chinese dissidents have all vanished amid the fog of battle. Convenient? Perhaps.

But back to my earlier point. We haven’t even measured, nor have any actual idea whether CV is 100X, 10X, same as or less deadly than a regular flu. Based on what’s reported in the media, it’s likely more contagious than a garden variety flu, but that doesn’t mean it’s deadlier. Fact is we just don’t know. And we need to know to make informed decisions.

For example two studies were published in top tier medical and science periodicals in the last couple of days talk about a cocktail of cheap, commonly available ant-malarial drugs stopping CV in it’s tracks. If other medical researchers reproduce these results, this CV thing is already over.

Is this the end of the world? Phhhht… hardly.

#160 bdwy on 03.18.20 at 9:28 am

1.446 usd/cad

another penny vaporized off the loonie in just an hour

#161 Stan Brooks on 03.18.20 at 9:28 am

Our south neighbor’s secretary of the treasury mentioned 20 % unemployment rate.

This translates to 25-30 % here.

How much were those shacks and glass condos in the middle of nowhere (GTA) worth?

Mark my words: we are facing at least 3-4 times decline in absolute prices in GTA as a minimum, real estate will be dead for a decade or two.

Enjoy the debt folks,

Cheers,

#162 conan on 03.18.20 at 9:36 am

I know hind sight is 20 20 but next Corona let the countries of the world send 100 billion dollars to the affected area and fix the problem. Everyone stays home and gets full pay, Charmin ultra soft, as much as you need. Free Netflix…..

This thing is costing the world trillions.

#163 Stan Brooks on 03.18.20 at 9:36 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/those-1-000-checks-t-003120112.html

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin raised the possibility with Republican senators that U.S. unemployment could rise to 20% without government intervention because of the impact of the coronavirus, according to people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Oops.

#164 bdwy on 03.18.20 at 9:51 am

guess this explains the dollar…

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
We will be, by mutual consent, temporarily closing our Northern Border with Canada to non-essential traffic. Trade will not be affected. Details to follow!

……..
the exclamation mark is a nice twist.

#165 Dharma Bum on 03.18.20 at 9:55 am

Retirement.

Social distancing.

So far, I see no difference.

Hahahaha!

This temporary “crisis” allows the sheep a glimpse into what life actually is like when you remove the illusion of all the false adornments.

Shopping around, dining out, group activities, watching movies in theatres, bars, clubs, sports….it’s all just a form of frivolous entertainment to engage and distract the unimaginative minds of humanity from their ultimately useless existence.

Meditate?
Read books?
Listen to music?
Exercise?
Reflect?
Sit still?
Converse?
Ponder?
Grow a garden?
Build something?
Appreciate the miracle of your existence?

Most cannot. They have been brainwashed from birth by the propaganda machine into the cult of consumerism, the rat race, and impatiently desiring endless empty action to avoid “boredom” at any cost.

“Trying to understand is like straining through muddy water. Have the patience to wait! Be still and allow the mud to settle.”
― Lao Tzu, Tao Te Ching

#166 WCS on 03.18.20 at 9:57 am

WCS in $8-9 range.

Bottled water worth far more. Might as well give it away.

#167 I see on 03.18.20 at 10:04 am

#158 Raging Ranter on 03.18.20 at 8:55 am
@#152 GFD, the 2008 Insured Mortgages Purchase Program (IMPP) was not a bailout, and neither is this. That was done to ensure banks had the capital to keep lending. So is this. The mortgages CMHC buys don’t just disappear. They are an asset that goes on the government books. Since they are already CMHC insured, no extra risk is assumed by the government by buying them.

——————————————————-

So in desperate times, someone comes in and buys $50-$100 billion dollars worth of my inventory at full market price so I can have dumploads of cash freed up.

Not a bailout. I see.

#168 Doug in London on 03.18.20 at 10:21 am

@Wait There, post #113:
Yes, there has been little talk of climate change lately. As I said in my post #95 there are a lot less cars on the road. Also there are fewer planes in the air, less cruise ships and so on so there will be a noticeable drop in CO2 emissions. It looks like nature has solved a problem we couldn’t solve with carbon taxes and bureaucratic regulations. As I said in my post, this crisis has some advantages. I think I’ll get out on my bike and enjoy another day of riding with fewer cars on the road, after submitting some lowball offers on stocks and ETFs.

#169 MF on 03.18.20 at 10:22 am

BS mortgage holiday announced.

Im not paying my rent. F it.

Why?

MF

#170 oh bouy on 03.18.20 at 10:29 am

@#119 Mattl on 03.17.20 at 9:23 pm
41 IHCTD9 on 03.17.20 at 6:10 pm

Lol.

A lot of my friends are single. This is the game nowadays:

Hook up on Tinder, message for a bit, “meet up” then text each other when the umm, need arises again. Usually it goes stale after a month or so. Repeat.

Couples are used to being together and usually aren’t attracted to each other like that anymore. Familiarity breeds contempt.

Add in the cost of children/housing and everyone is scared to have kids (unless religious).

Not happening. The system is dead. Killed by low rates, a me me me attitude, and i dont know what else.

MF

————————————————-

Jesus man you are a downer. Would love to know what circles you run in and how you became like this.

Cause the scenario you paint looks nothing like what I see everyday. My peer group is in mostly happy marriages, with 1-2 kids, most own homes. No one has been “killed by low rates”, quite the opposite, they recognized that money is free and took advantage. What you see as an idiot in an 800k home they can’t afford, our reality is 400k homes that doubled, and ten years of mortgage payments left. Payments that would get us a 2 bedroom in TO.

You need new friends, bottom line. If your group couldn’t find a way to make the last 12 years work good god they are going to get smoked when things actually go bad. You are running with losers, time to friend up.
_____________________________________________

MF is the king of hot takes on here.

#171 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 10:35 am

WCS is 11.55. Looks like it’s getting pounded harder than any other crude on the planet, 4 weeks ago it was 37.00+.

USD/CAD was 1.45 for a while this am.

… and we’re only just getting into it in North America. Although it looks like the worst case scenario is getting priced into damn near everything.

I think I should start a prepper website, or homesteading YT channel. The whole movement was created by the GFC. Branches of the this desire to jump of the hamster wheel evolved into things like the FIRE movement, and minimalist lifestyles of all kinds (Cabin, RV, Van, Tiny House etc…).

To me, it feels like folks are shook more now than back in 2008.

#172 Sail Away on 03.18.20 at 10:37 am

#154 Tater on 03.18.20 at 8:17 am

Can’t stop laughing at the charts of APT and Tesla. Used to think doctors were the best counterparties, but maybe it’s engineers.

—————————-

Yep, you called it, Tater. Good work. No external factors at play, either.

#173 Jesse Liverspot on 03.18.20 at 10:42 am

Nope, didn’t buy RY at $78 because I’m 100% sure I’ll be able to buy it sub-$50 Q2 2021. Earnings projections are down 50% and more. My call, but after the dividend cuts brings us back to retest the ‘08 low. This year is already written off. 1000 points up…1000 points down. This is a market for a twenty something Lev-2 ivory tower desk traders with a D License. Cash is King. $C with the 50 cent handle, no doubt. The investment scene is dead for a while.

#174 DDT on 03.18.20 at 11:00 am

PS, you can mute the call join beeps on conference calls which I find quite distracting.

#175 JB on 03.18.20 at 11:08 am

The brunt of closures will be in urban centres. Small towns exempt. Another reason not to live in a $700,000, 600-square-foot box on the 28th floor.
____________________________________________
Good luck selling one of those $700,000 600 sq ft virus petri dishes this year. Actually good luck selling anything this year. Not a good time to sell or buy. I would be willing to wager that any offers on the table now could be cratered or revoked.

#176 not 1st on 03.18.20 at 11:09 am

6 month mortgage payment deferral announced by the big 5.

#177 JB on 03.18.20 at 11:12 am

#159 OK, Doomer on 03.18.20 at 9:16 am

Just finished reading a good article about the lack of reliable data on the CV. For instance, we don’t even have a basic study that can shed light on how many people have the virus and are walking around with nothing more than a sniffle. We could all be infected already and not even know it.

We jumped straight to panic mode and the media is stoking it all.

Italy has a high death rate, true, but they’re only testing people already at death’s door. Iran has a cultural tradition that virtually ensures saliva transfer of live virus, so no real surprise that CV is off the hook there. Meanwhile, Hong Kong protests (and protesters), billionaires who oppose the regime and southern Chinese dissidents have all vanished amid the fog of battle. Convenient? Perhaps.

But back to my earlier point. We haven’t even measured, nor have any actual idea whether CV is 100X, 10X, same as or less deadly than a regular flu. Based on what’s reported in the media, it’s likely more contagious than a garden variety flu, but that doesn’t mean it’s deadlier. Fact is we just don’t know. And we need to know to make informed decisions.

For example two studies were published in top tier medical and science periodicals in the last couple of days talk about a cocktail of cheap, commonly available ant-malarial drugs stopping CV in it’s tracks. If other medical researchers reproduce these results, this CV thing is already over.

Is this the end of the world? Phhhht… hardly.
_________________________________________
Great report on this Virus from the UK.
It explains it all. That is if you can read the medical lingo.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

#178 JB on 03.18.20 at 11:17 am

#58 Smoking Man on 03.17.20 at 6:57 pm

#46 Penny Henny on 03.17.20 at 6:26 pm
Hey Smokie.
You must be killing it in Forex
….
Always. Can’t lose on my sys.

Going to make a fortune on equities when the hype dies down. Check out clip.

https://youtu.be/yn074EB5NNY
………………………………………………………………..
So Smoking guy does your system work during this extreme wildly swinging volatility?
I hear you are back in Canada now so whats up? You come back to watch our dollar crater from the front row?
You know what goes up must come down and visa versa.
BTW this guys info on the video was dubbed so who knows what was said.

#179 Raging Ranter on 03.18.20 at 11:18 am

@#167, I’m glad you get it. If you need any further help, I’ll get the puppets.

#180 Stone on 03.18.20 at 11:24 am

I wonder if renters can soon start requesting rent reductions from their landlords. With unemployment potentially spiking up and a deep recession looming, landlords will not have a choice if they want to retain top notch renters.

Homeowners who are highly leveraged will find themselves in the same boat trying to keep their homes. I wonder how many will start handing in their keys to their banker.

Am I ever grateful to be a renter. It really is hassle free living.

#181 CAD??? on 03.18.20 at 11:27 am

#160 bdwy on 03.18.20 at 9:28 am
1.446 usd/cad

another penny vaporized off the loonie in just an hour

———————————-

Canadian dollar may (and probably is) still be hugely overvalued. AUD which normally trades within 1 to 4 cents of CAD, at $1.71 USD/AUD.

Why the 27 cent difference now?

#182 Raging Ranter on 03.18.20 at 11:29 am

Question for anyone with an RBC Direct Investing account or similar:

I got a message this morning that options quotes from Bourse de Montreal (where all Canadian stock options are traded) are delayed 15 minutes. For how long has this been the case?

I know quotes from NYMEX and CBOE are delayed 15 minutes through my RBC account, but that’s the first time I’ve seen that message for Canadian options quotes. Has it always been like that? Or are is that just one more problem they’re having this morning? What about TD Web Broker?

#183 SoggyShorts on 03.18.20 at 11:29 am

#165 Dharma Bum on 03.18.20 at 9:55 am

Who the hell are you to judge what entertainment is frivolous?

Listening to music and reading = good, but movie = bad? STFU.
Exercise and conversing are good, but sports and group activities= bad?

Sorry you never made any friends, but I think I know why covid-19 won’t change the number of invites you get.

#184 Sail Away on 03.18.20 at 11:32 am

#4 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 03.17.20 at 5:01 pm

Not to get technical but according to chemistry alcohol is a solution – anonymous

————————-

Well, not technically accurate: pure alcohol is not a solution. Beer, wine, and spirits, though, are solutions.

I like, ‘alcohol may not solve your problems, but neither will milk or water’

#185 PBrasseur on 03.18.20 at 11:38 am

Money printing festival going on!

#186 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 11:40 am

#150 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.18.20 at 7:24 am
You have to wonder how many companies are using this Covid “crisis” to whack staff.
I was in a commercial warehouse the other day(not open to the public, only random business customers) and there were no office staff. Management sent them all home on Friday and please call 1-800-who cares for info or service.

Call it the cynic in me but business wouldnt use this to determine what staff they need or not.
I expect a lot of layoffs to end up being permanent.
___

100% it’s going to happen. I know (inside line) of one large Auto OEM. Thousands of employees. When the GFC hit, it was the catalyst for an eventual fundamental change.

Not just initial laying off newbies, and buying off high priced senior staff, but a whole new system culminating in what amounts to a 10 year part time system for new hires. These peeps max at less than 2/3 the pay as “full time” employees, get none of the benefits, nothing for vacation, never a hour of OT, or a 40 hr week. After 10 years of doing this, you “may” get full time.

Before the GFC, you got hired and in 10 years you were at top rate, full benefits, and 10 years along in your pension contributions.

It is what it is though – the way Canada is going, said OEM will soon be packing up and heading to the Southern USA or Mexico like all the others have. Half the cost – just for starters.

We can’t expect things to improve with the kind of leadership we’ve voted in.

#187 Scott on 03.18.20 at 11:42 am

Thanks so much for making your call available to us Garth, much appreciated!

#188 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 11:44 am

#135 Lillooet, BC on 03.17.20 at 11:23 pm

Shawn Allen: what stocks are your watch list?

**************************************
I am not looking to buy anything.

Balance sheets are important now. Avoid companies with too much debt.

With the economic shut down this seems far from over as far as stock declines.

Shutdowns if sustained would push economy into depression.

We need a vaccine or we need to give up on the staying home if that does not work in six weeks or so. Otherwise the cure is worse than the disease.

#189 Jesse Liverspot on 03.18.20 at 11:48 am

Addendum:

#173 Jesse Liverspot

I agree here, there will be another very long grinding downturn ahead. 2 to 4 years of ugly ahead? Very possible, kind of likely? Desperation is thinking this will all blow over soon.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/after-the-recession-beware-the-jobless-recovery-202600519.html

#190 april on 03.18.20 at 11:54 am

#176 – and it’ll all be added to their principle with interest.
The banks don’t loose.

#191 Tater on 03.18.20 at 11:57 am

172 Sail Away on 03.18.20 at 10:37 am
#154 Tater on 03.18.20 at 8:17 am

Can’t stop laughing at the charts of APT and Tesla. Used to think doctors were the best counterparties, but maybe it’s engineers.

—————————-

Yep, you called it, Tater. Good work. No external factors at play, either.

—————————————-

APT underperformed the market for a decade and it took a pandemic to get the stock to go parabolic. Here’s a free tip for you: when stocks with 600mm market caps are jumping 20% off 14mm in orders, it’s time to sell. Amazingly, as an investor this was a terrible pick and a black swan gave you a gift.

As for Tesla, it’s never made money on any of its products. It’s been kept alive by access to capital markets. That always ends at some point. And looks like it has now. Again, you got an incredible gift with the run over 900 and you squandered it. My call to short on a break of 687 was made in the comments here.

It all comes back to not having a reasonable concept of value and the trading skills that would get a junior trader fired in a week.

#192 Sail Away on 03.18.20 at 11:59 am

#72 Sheesh on 03.17.20 at 7:31 pm
#276 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 2:23 pm

There’s no possibility this disease that acts just like a normal cold or flu could possibly have been around before we started to test specifically for it, is there?

—————————

You two are a hoot. How about letting the experts (you know, virologists, epidemiologists) do their expert things, and you stick to your expert things. Which obviously aren’t in the medical field.

—————————

I’ll just say that as a technical ‘expert’ in my field, there is an enormous amount of grey area surrounding the term.

As a fun exercise during lockdown, we could research highly publicized stories and procedures that have been debunked.

I’ll start the bidding with:

Autism and vaccines
2019/20 Australian wildfires and historically out of ordinary
Thalidomide and pregnancy
Trump and… [any NY Times headline in last 5 years]

#193 Barb on 03.18.20 at 12:05 pm

” #176 not 1st on 03.18.20 at 11:09 am

6 month mortgage payment deferral announced by the big 5.”

—————————————-

Property taxes next?

#194 JB on 03.18.20 at 12:05 pm

Don’t care for cnn or for that matter D Lemon but this was classic. I get such a feeling of WTF when I watch Trump talk out of his A$$. He has been gaslighting the whole world for years. Now the supposed media hoax is something he cant lie or buy his way out of. Now the $hit has hit the fan and the market doesn’t like it at all.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/03/18/don-lemon-president-trump-politicizing-coronavirus-ctn-vpx.cnn

#195 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 12:23 pm

#180 Stone on 03.18.20 at 11:24 am
I wonder if renters can soon start requesting rent reductions from their landlords. With unemployment potentially spiking up and a deep recession looming, landlords will not have a choice if they want to retain top notch renters.

Homeowners who are highly leveraged will find themselves in the same boat trying to keep their homes. I wonder how many will start handing in their keys to their banker.

Am I ever grateful to be a renter. It really is hassle free living.
_____

More interesting will those homeowners who rely on rental income to pay the mortgage if this scenario comes to pass.

Consider also that in most provinces, Homeowners CAN’T toss their keys at the bank and absolve themselves of their obligation (full recourse mortgages).

Bottom line though, is if jobs start going up in smoke in a big way, there is going to be all kinds of problems right across the board, top to bottom.

#196 not 1st on 03.18.20 at 12:29 pm

#177 JB on 03.18.20 at 11:12 am
___
Great report on this Virus from the UK.
It explains it all. That is if you can read the medical lingo.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
—–

That’s still less than 1% overall mortality rate with no interventions at all.

Maybe there was a middle road rather than torpedoing our entire economy. Could have staggered work days and school days, more work from home, quarantined the most at risk etc.

And with just some light screening at borders and airports 90% of this could have been nipped in the bud.

There is going to be way more than people without jobs and unable to pay daily expenses at the end of this.

#197 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 12:30 pm

CBC – Pretty much every single headline is COVID-19 related.

#198 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 12:31 pm

#193 Barb on 03.18.20 at 12:05 pm
” #176 not 1st on 03.18.20 at 11:09 am

6 month mortgage payment deferral announced by the big 5.”

—————————————-

Property taxes next?
___

That’s be nice – throw us no mortgage peeps a bone already!

#199 Tudval on 03.18.20 at 12:35 pm

@194 Hmmm, somebody’s memory is failing.. wasn’t Trump who won the presidency that he will bring back America’s jobs and ultimately national security from China while EVERYBODY else running just wanted to outsource more and more… everything in fact. Their whole external policy revolved around Syria and Ukraine, just because it was politically convenient to vilify Putin, while mr Xi was flying under the radar with our jobs, wealth, IP, you name it, he was taking it. What a cold shower we just had! and you still yap about
Trump??

#200 Lost...but not leased on 03.18.20 at 12:35 pm

#134 MF on 03.17.20 at 11:19 pm
I guess I hit somewhat of a nerve with my hook up culture comment lol. It was kind of tongue in cheek but I’ll explain.

For what it’s worth. I’m actually in a great relationship. Yeah yeah I complain about house prices and central banks but isnt that what this blog is for?

I’ve actually been pretty lucky in all aspects of my life. No other complaints.

etc. etc.
===================

A sad reflection/commentary of how younger generations have been manipulated via social engineering .

What does your generation deduce will happen in the senior years. More cat ladies?

#201 Shawn Allen on 03.18.20 at 12:39 pm

Government Bond Yields are rising

Commercial interest rates could soar.

ALL bets are off.

#202 TurnerNation on 03.18.20 at 12:44 pm

This is shaping up…a Worst case Dow 15k, market closes for a week and we re-open under 10k.
This is the great middle class destruction.
Borders closed, stay at home, let the Bankers take us down into a new world order of debt and bailouts.
For 6 months I’ve been saying that 2020-21 will be
h-llish and total chaos. I did not expect it this fast.
All random tho! Random.

#203 IHCTD9 on 03.18.20 at 12:46 pm

#184 Sail Away on 03.18.20 at 11:32 am
#4 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 03.17.20 at 5:01 pm

Not to get technical but according to chemistry alcohol is a solution – anonymous

————————-

Well, not technically accurate: pure alcohol is not a solution. Beer, wine, and spirits, though, are solutions.
___

So that would mean that Bacardi 151 is almost not a solution? :D

Some folks consider drinking to be a problem, while others say:

“They call it a problem, I call it a solution”

I guess Midland was right!

#204 PBrasseur on 03.18.20 at 12:47 pm

When is China going to compensate countries for Covid?

Statist regimes don’t compensate, for that they would have to admit fault, which they never do, instead they blame others like China is doing now.

But China will pay dearly for covering this up allowing it to spread all over.

They are rich because western companies investing there, now investment will dry up and regulations will hurt them, forget Huawei, they’re done.

#205 Raging Ranter on 03.18.20 at 12:51 pm

@#189 Jesse Liverspot, that’s what I fully expect too. We haven’t seen a real grinding recession here in Canada since the early-to-mid 1990s – the time period for which the term ‘jobless recovery’ was invented. Sure, the technical recession that started in 1990 was done – more or less – by 1992, but the jobs recession continued for another 5 years. Not until 1997 did we see sustained improvement on the employment front.

Since that era defined my young adulthood, I’ve always accepted that as just kind of normal, and everything since then as abnormally easy. Given that the “good times” have now lasted approximately 3.5 times longer than the 1990-96 gong show, it certainly has been an inaccurate and thoroughly distorted perception on my part. Until now.

There are so many businesses and so many consumers just barely hanging on these days, and that was before the virus. So many of them will simply disappear as functional economic units. Retailers have been trying for years to move sales online to reduce their real estate and employment costs. This will give them the shove they needed to accelerate that trend. So many restaurants, bars, coffee shops have survived on a shoestring margin. Thousands of them will never reopen. With retail goes hundreds of thousands of jobs at the lower end of the income spectrum, and commercial real estate.

And here’s the thing about flattening the curve. That means we must shelter in place for longer – much longer – than had the virus been allowed to take its course. I believe we have no choice; we simply had to pull out all the stops to prevent the virus from peaking quickly and overwhelming our healthcare system. But not having the choice will in no way protect us from the consequences. This is the biggest, most sudden, most shocking, most far reaching downturn since the Great Depression.

I don’t know what things will look like from here. But I expect some version of a prolonged shit-show that could last the better part of the 2020s. I hope I’m wrong. If commenters are laughing at me a year from now, calling me a loser for putting such a doomer prophecy out there, no one will be happier than me. Let’s all hope I’m a total loser (even more than I am presently).

#206 Orange Man....Orange on 03.18.20 at 12:56 pm

#194 JB on 03.18.20 at 12:05 pm
Don’t care for cnn or for that matter D Lemon but this was classic. I get such a feeling of WTF when I watch Trump talk out of his A$$. He has been gaslighting the whole world for years. Now the supposed media hoax is something he cant lie or buy his way out of. Now the $hit has hit the fan and the market doesn’t like it at all.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/03/18/don-lemon-president-trump-politicizing-coronavirus-ctn-vpx.cnn
++++++++++

I’m just wondering if you realize that “Gaslighting” isn’t actually a thing. It doesn’t really exist.

But if you don’t believe me, the obviously I’m just “gaslighting” you. Right? Right?

Heading down these CNN dug rabbit holes requires one thing: Suspension of disbelief. Kind of like in a Stephen King novel. Once you suspend disbelief anything makes sense.

Have fun with that one and enjoy the ride!

#207 Sail away on 03.18.20 at 1:00 pm

Tater, Tater…

Using a market collapse to justify yourself is poor form.

The truth is- I still hold Tesla as a long term hold, as mentioned, and it’s up 341.17% from entry. I’ll probably pick up more. Sure, I could have taken profit at 10x… oh well… life is like that sometimes.

And I closed APT in two sales. Half at around 3104% my initial entry and half at 967%. It’s gone up since then.

These are not losses, my friend. APT is a big source of dry USD powder.

Here’s one you can gloat over, though: my SPXL exercise is down -70.76%. That’s my gift to you.

#208 oh bouy on 03.18.20 at 1:06 pm

@#190 april on 03.18.20 at 11:54 am
#176 – and it’ll all be added to their principle with interest.
The banks don’t loose.
_________________________________

nor do they lose.

#209 bdwy on 03.18.20 at 1:11 pm

1.463

loonie takes another load of buckshot.

investing in anything canadian since t2 took the wheel has been downright irresponsible, even foolish.

#210 Mattl on 03.18.20 at 1:11 pm

A mortgage deferral isn’t much of a gift to homeowners. I appreciate the banks doing it, but interest will continue to accumulate.

We won’t be taking advantage of it, although I was considering using the deferral to plow my mortgage payments into the market. With rates in the low 2’s, wonder if this is in fact a good play?

#211 crazyfox on 03.18.20 at 1:14 pm

#159 OK, Doomer on 03.18.20 at 9:16 am

That’s the dilema isn’t it? If governments do something, it costs us money. If governments do nothing, it costs us even more money. Wuhan… total local government fail early on. Wuhan is still under quarantine thanks to slow response.

Italy, total government failed response early on, even late in the game. There were dozens of reported cases in other nations who had traveled in Italy and Italy was late to react. They closed their borders for example on the 9th but didn’t close restaurants, bars and businesses until last Thursday. By Saturday, their hospitals were out of ICU’s. Poor reaction to a pandemic and now, they’ll pay for it. Pay now or pay more later, that’s the choice we are given and if government response is half assed, maybe a lot more. Spain is next followed by Germany, France and the U.S. . Us too, if we don’t get hip quick. We need to follow examples that work!

South Korea made headlines when they closed down their fourth largest city of Daegu. 2.5 million under quarantine. What most don’t realize is the rest of South Korea was mostly normal. Schools and universities closed where there was cases, but it was still business as usual. South Korea turned the tide through testing. Lots and lots of tests:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea

South Korea also used a smart phone government app like the one China used to get their affairs in order:

“Recently developed apps using public government data allow users to see how close they are to where a confirmed Covid-19 patient has been. They can also see the date a patient was confirmed with the disease, demographic data about the patient, and, crucially, some of their location history.

At least one app, called Corona 100m, will also alert a user if they come within 100 m (328 ft) of a location visited by someone who’s had Covid-19.”

South Koreans are open, educated and smart with their choices on how to cope with the virus. This government cel GPS tracking app was also used in China and is well explained here on a YT vid:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6c9gbttVew

Temp scanners for people who are running a fever and might not know it… government cel apps with GPS trackers to help people avoid infected comrades, lots of testing same day results, people wearing masks in public, self quarantines, chain of infection tracing, lock downs if needed where there is community spread, it works.

What are we doing in North America? No government apps, little if any temp scanning, limited testing at best, shortages of masks, can’t even find enough for the front lines, media downplaying the necessity of even wearing them, governments are falling over themselves cutting rates to zero and putting together bailout packages but as far as containment is concerned, its a fail. The U.S. definitely, they are flying blind there weeks behind in testing. Canada to some degree has dropped the ball on this as well.

Canadians had better get hip to what to do and fast. Learn from what works. Don’t wait for mother nature to bail us out of this, there’s no immunity, its a novel virus meaning it may not be all that seasonal. We need to think smart, think Asian and copy what works! If we don’t, we’ll pay dearly with blowout deficits and lose our edge because we couldn’t follow the working examples already set out for us.

#212 jess on 03.18.20 at 1:14 pm

see – singapore health have 2 cases without link. …

Florida – lots of people on the beach must have been listening to Devin Nunes , gas masked Gaetz and all the Fox new dumb heads.

Singaporeans advised to defer all travel abroad

4. In view of the heightened risk of further importation of COVID-19 to Singapore, Singaporeans are advised to defer all travel abroad with immediate effect. This supercedes our earlier advisory announced on 15 March to defer all non-essential travel abroad.[2] The expansion of the travel advisory is to reduce the risk of Singaporeans being infected with the virus when abroad, and spreading it to other Singaporeans when they return.

14-Day Stay-Home Notice for all travellers

5. To further reduce the risk of further importation leading to community spread in Singapore, the Multi-Ministry Taskforce will put in place additional measures for all travellers entering Singapore. From 20 March 2020, 2359 hours, all Singaporeans, Permanent Residents, Long Term Pass holders and short term visitors entering Singapore will be issued a 14-day Stay-Home Notice (SHN).[3] They will have to provide proof of the place where they will serve the 14-day SHN, for example a hotel booking covering the entire period, or a place of residence they or their family members own. read more @

https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

#213 Sail away on 03.18.20 at 1:20 pm

#191 Tater on 03.18.20 at 11:57 am

[you have]… the trading skills that would get a junior trader fired in a week.

———————–

Oh, I’d definitely be fired immediately as a trader.

Buying and holding for 10 years? 5 or 6 trades a year?

Preposterous!

#214 Herb on 03.18.20 at 1:32 pm

#58 SM,

since you’re the only one who seems to have read my #208 Herb (03.16.20 at 10:34 am), I’ll give you another link that should turn your expertise in psychology and herd mentality into a real Forex killer. Ask Dr. Google to translate it to English for you, and don’t get hung up on the psychotherapeutic parts –

https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Kapitalismus-kaputt-4684452.html?seite=all

#215 Captain Uppa on 03.18.20 at 1:34 pm

Dow down another 10%.

Still just another bump in the road?

#216 I see on 03.18.20 at 1:36 pm

#179 Raging Ranter on 03.18.20 at 11:18 am
@#167, I’m glad you get it. If you need any further help, I’ll get the puppets.

—————————————–

PT Barnam loved people like you. One born every minute.

Not sure why you have puppets. Are you Mr Hand from South Park?

#217 Jim on 03.18.20 at 1:38 pm

Oil is supposed to be at $100 a barrel, not struggling at $25.
We need to increase the population.
Brent 24.7400 3.88 -13.56 %

#218 Stone on 03.18.20 at 1:38 pm

Wow! REITs are not immune. XRE down 17.35% today at the time I write this. It held up well until the last few days. I assume the market is factoring in a ton of tenants (commercial, industrial, personal) not continuing their rent payments.

#219 calgary rip off on 03.18.20 at 1:39 pm

@#3: Alcohol is something that should be avoided. Especially now. Alcohol lowers immunity. If you want escape, read scriptures, think of the Book of Mormon. There is a reason why the western states were settled by Mormons. Such scripture deals with life and death.

Religion aside, most people dont have the cognitive framework or skills to handle the way life was 200 years ago. Even so for now life is paradise compared to 1800. Running water, electricity, heating, motorized vehicles still exist. For now. Hopefully that doesnt change from this virus that was instigated by idiots who are more focused on their vacations and travelling rather than enjoying what is right in front of them.

Acknowledging that time and life is precious is what is important rather than egos and non essential things like travel. In the link above where it says website, nextstrain.org shows quite clearly how all this jettsetting started all this mess.

Accepting the reality of death possibility is first priority in dealing with this crisis. Next is what you gonna do about it? Stop non essential bullshit behavior. Get your immunity in check. Stop focusing on how food tastes. Eat food that is good for you and boosts immunity. In short stop being a domesticated human.

#220 jess on 03.18.20 at 1:42 pm

reading from the same script?

…” lack of coordination left member states distrustful of one another and unwilling to cooperate.
The EU’s leadership will hope that today’s efforts bring the 27 member states closer together and leads to European nations to start reading from the same script.
==============
As long as it is a scientist and medical professional speaking and not someone like VP PENCE

U.S. ‘will not have’ unemployment rate of 20 percent, Mnuchin says
“I didn’t in any way say I think we are going to have that. It’s just a mathematical statement,” the Treasury Secretary clarified.

Mnuchin also clarified that the administration would not be extending the deadline to file taxes, though the Treasury Department is allowing a 90-day reprieve on taxes owed.

“We are not moving the filing date, just the date you need to pay the money,” he said, adding that Americans who expect to get refunds should file their taxes by the usual April 15 deadline.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/u-s-will-not-have-unemployment-rate-20-percent-mnuchin-n1163006

President Trump was asked about Dr. Deborah Birx’s warning regarding millennial coronavirus and his message to many of his own young, conservative supporters who may be heeding his earlier advice downplaying the seriousness of coronavirus.

He claimed his earlier comments were “to be calm.”

“I do want people to be calm,” he said.

==========

#221 Attrition on 03.18.20 at 1:43 pm

#194 JB on 03.18.20 at 12:05 pm

You have TDS. Now is not the time.

#222 G on 03.18.20 at 1:54 pm

Hopefully Canada and others be like Italy. Certainly the actions being taken will help slow the spread.

Most people get better and some don’t even feel sick. So odds are you’ll one of them and will be just fine too.

South Korea with all there testing and contact tracing not only lowered the curve but seem to have cut off the tail end. Fingers crossed we can do the same.

Italy to ‘prioritise patients with highest chance of survival’ from coronavirus, says doctor March17 8min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX49P1iuqPw

Important French announcement March 16 9min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuWo5lmWuZI&t=19s

#223 G on 03.18.20 at 1:57 pm

Sorry mist than, should be ‘won’t be like Italy.’

#224 Damifino on 03.18.20 at 2:13 pm

Silver linings dept. Things that fell off the radar:

Blockades
Extinction rebellion
Hereditary chiefs
Social license
2 degrees by 2100
50% by 2030
100% by 2050
Greta (I shall miss her the most)

#225 TurnerNation on 03.18.20 at 2:14 pm

But people need to realize what’s going on here. The damage being done over very little is worse than even the fears they told us post 9/11 – that several US cities would be disappeared by the bad guys – poof. Think about that one.
Look around outside you see normalcy. The damage they are doing to us in our minds and pocketbooks.
A global take down. Airlines will be nationalized, Universal income, Govt will provide housing.
Middle class was a grand experiment, coming to an end.
imo.

#226 akashic record on 03.18.20 at 2:20 pm

Way, way beyond Average Joe’s panic.

Unless political, business, science leaders around the globe are also just an Average Joe, they just panic with some things else, not TP, like the other pedestrians.

#227 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.18.20 at 2:20 pm

Wow, another beautiful sunny day in Halifax.

#228 CherryPicker on 03.18.20 at 2:22 pm

I want to buy air canada. How low can she go

#229 Renter's Revenge! on 03.18.20 at 2:41 pm

Well, the good thing about the market being down by 33% is that when it goes down by another 10% it’s only going down by 6.7% of it’s peak value.

Not so bad when you look at it that way LOL

#230 bobby13 on 03.18.20 at 2:46 pm

Canadian banks have a commercial real estate problem that hasn’t even been dealt with yet, margin calls are ringing in, derivatives will be hard to juggle, bail ins not sure where confidence will be if it comes to that, central bank intervention lately hasn’t done much covid is looking to me like a cover story more every day.

Cheers

#231 Tater on 03.18.20 at 2:57 pm

#207 Sail away on 03.18.20 at 1:00 pm
Tater, Tater…

Using a market collapse to justify yourself is poor form.

The truth is- I still hold Tesla as a long term hold, as mentioned, and it’s up 341.17% from entry. I’ll probably pick up more. Sure, I could have taken profit at 10x… oh well… life is like that sometimes.

And I closed APT in two sales. Half at around 3104% my initial entry and half at 967%. It’s gone up since then.

These are not losses, my friend. APT is a big source of dry USD powder.

Here’s one you can gloat over, though: my SPXL exercise is down -70.76%. That’s my gift to you.

———————————————————–

Good job getting lucky, just try to remember it wasn’t skill.

#232 Sold Out on 03.18.20 at 3:15 pm

#194 JB on 03.18.20 at 12:05 pm

You have TDS. Now is not the time.

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Riiigghhtt, Dim Donnie tried to weaponize the pandemic response and take down the Dems from the get go. But we shouldn’t hold that against him because ????????

https://www.frontpagelive.com/2020/03/17/ex-fox-reporters-timeline-of-trumps-catastrophic-covid-19-lies/

#233 Dr talc on 03.18.20 at 3:16 pm

A while back an Italian politician proposed several mandatory vaccinations for all school children.
50 % of the population objected to that. Is Italy being punished?
there is no logic in forced vaccinations. The people who are agreeable to jags would be immune. People who are immune have nothing to fear

#234 jess on 03.18.20 at 3:23 pm

France : Health agency director Jerome Salomon said 931 people were in a serious condition, needing life support.

=====
jesus and germs
So far in NSW, schools have presented a united front about adhering to government advice. But Sydney Catholic Schools, one of the major dioceses operating under Catholic Schools NSW, on Tuesday became the first school system in the country to publicly question that stance. (school closures)

#235 JB on 03.18.20 at 3:28 pm

#220 Attrition on 03.18.20 at 1:43 pm

#194 JB on 03.18.20 at 12:05 pm

You have TDS. Now is not the time.
……………………………………………………………..
Hell NO my unwitting friend. Read between the lines I have made a killing on this A$$hole running the USA. He is so unpredictable that he is now predictable. His being a clown in an oversized suit and the fact that I think he is nuts has nothing to do with TDS. Just because hes is dick with his antics doesn’t mean I fixate about him. I kind of need him around to cause as much disruption as possible. $$$ every time he opens his mouth.

#236 Sail away on 03.18.20 at 3:33 pm

#228 Renter’s Revenge! on 03.18.20 at 2:41 pm

Well, the good thing about the market being down by 33% is that when it goes down by another 10% it’s only going down by 6.7% of it’s peak value.
Not so bad when you look at it that way LOL

——————–

Haha- good perspective!

And when it gets to zero: no more losses, baby.

#237 Raging Ranter on 03.18.20 at 3:35 pm

#216 I See, I have explained how foolish and gullible I am in numerous other posts. I simply cannot see conspiracies – whether they be stealth bank bailouts or fake virus scares – that others see so clearly. I’m far too obtuse.

The puppets are busy right now, but here’s what they told me: $50 B is just the start. They fully expect CMHC to expand the purchase program to $200 billion and beyond. Why? Because the government has already told the banks under no uncertain terms it expects them to keep lending, and to extend leniency to any and all debtors. And the government will take whatever action necessary to force the banks’ hand.

If that means air-lifting another $200 billion in mortgages off the banks’ books so they can keep lending, they’ll do it in a heart beat. Call it a bailout if that makes you feel better. The puppets know otherwise.

#238 Hurtin' Albertan on 03.18.20 at 3:38 pm

It may be a small percentage that will be severely afflicted by Covid-19 but there is no way to know if it will be you or me. Now would be a good time to ensure affairs and directives are in order:

https://www.albertahealthservices.ca/info/Page12585.aspx

In the words of local well-respected family and emergency doctor “what would be your wishes, your goals of care, if your body was ravaged by COVID-19?
Better to make an emergency plan and never need it, than to face an emergency with no plan”

#239 Herb on 03.18.20 at 3:39 pm

#58 SM (again),

sorry, wrong link at my #214, although that wrong link is a good one. Just too many links in my Corona File. The link I meant to post is this:

https://kenfm.de/tagesdosis-18-3-2020-der-corona-pandemie-wahn-wer-bin-ich-in-einer-traumatisierten-gesellschaft/

#240 Dups on 03.18.20 at 3:39 pm

Offcourse more panic is in the recipe. Not the end of the world people relax. The markets are there to serve us not to kill us. All shall go sooner than later. Buy do not sell as you see fit.

#241 JB on 03.18.20 at 3:44 pm

#214 Herb on 03.18.20 at 1:32 pm

#58 SM,

since you’re the only one who seems to have read my #208 Herb (03.16.20 at 10:34 am), I’ll give you another link that should turn your expertise in psychology and herd mentality into a real Forex killer. Ask Dr. Google to translate it to English for you, and don’t get hung up on the psychotherapeutic parts –

https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Kapitalismus-kaputt-4684452.html?seite=all
…………………………………………………………………..
Its already plunged the world into chaos. I don’t think he (SM) will understand whether these world changes will proceed in a progressive, emancipatory, or in a reactionary and authoritarian direction.
Ich wunsche dir einen schonen Tag, mein Freund, mein Vater war halbdeutsch.

#242 Sail away on 03.18.20 at 3:45 pm

Probably not politically correct, but…

Is anyone else enjoying this?

I’m finding it wonderful to completely relax. Everything’s quiet, spring is here, I can bike down the middle of the highway with no traffic, work doesn’t matter since nobody’s around.

Calm mornings, calmer days, beautiful weather. So nice.

Money? Meh. It comes, it goes… with markets almost at -40% now, I feel a constant undercurrent of excitement. An adrenaline high. Sort of like the beginning of a race.

Anybody else?

#243 Sail away on 03.18.20 at 4:08 pm

#230 Tater on 03.18.20 at 2:57 pm

Good job getting lucky, just try to remember it wasn’t skill.

———————–

Why not? Because it doesn’t meet your definition of investing?

I’ll immediately be buying APT again after this is over and it drops… then will hold it indefinitely. That’s what this stock does- it leaps gigantically on infectious disease. It’s not a quarterly profitable stock. It was and will be again a strategic buy.

And we don’t agree on Tesla. I see what Elon is doing from an engineering perspective and it’s absolutely amazing. Again a considered buy.

Neither were luck. Believe it or believe it not.

#244 maxx on 03.18.20 at 4:35 pm

@ #113

Whoa! People who learn to cook are in grave danger of discovering how addictive home cooking is! That could be disastrous to the economy………. :-)

#245 maxx on 03.18.20 at 4:57 pm

@ #155

Your guess is as good as mine. It will cause far less spending. Even for those who spend much of it overseas on travel, as cancellation and medical insurance, flights, parking, travel clothing, gifts, taxis, airport consumables etc will dwindle to dramatic levels.

Not to mention domestic spending. I see this as a golden training opportunity so as to become a MMA consumer. This skill will last a lifetime. To he!! with rates.

Wallets rule.

#246 Nottawa Housing Bust on 03.18.20 at 6:48 pm

So fellow blog dogs. What’s your thoughts on real estate in coming 6-9 months. I’m thinking that it will fall off a cliff 20-30 % decline in prices.

Already seeing listings flooding market. Also the mortgage relief promised will this go to rentals as well. How can a landlord collect rent and receive mortgage relief???

Sold our house last fall. Renting and have the money is a HISA. 65 35 portfolio taking a whacking but utilities stocks and grocers performing well. Bond ETFs down slightly.

Just curious on thoughts for next 12 months ? My plan is to continue renting for next year or so and wait and see.

#247 I see on 03.18.20 at 8:24 pm

#237 Raging Ranter on 03.18.20 at 3:35 pm
#216 I See, I have explained how foolish and gullible I am in numerous other posts. I simply cannot see conspiracies – whether they be stealth bank bailouts or fake virus scares – that others see so clearly. I’m far too obtuse.

The puppets are busy right now, but here’s what they told me: $50 B is just the start. They fully expect CMHC to expand the purchase program to $200 billion and beyond. Why? Because the government has already told the banks under no uncertain terms it expects them to keep lending, and to extend leniency to any and all debtors. And the government will take whatever action necessary to force the banks’ hand.

If that means air-lifting another $200 billion in mortgages off the banks’ books so they can keep lending, they’ll do it in a heart beat. Call it a bailout if that makes you feel better. The puppets know otherwise.

_________________________________________

It’s a bail out dude or else they wouldn’t need any help at all. It was a bail out in 2008 and it is now. In 2009 Hank Paulson gave the biggest the American banks $125 billion to lend and unfreeze the money pipelines and he clearly considered it a bail out. He used to run Goldman-Sachs and was Treasury Secretary during the entire crisis. Unless you want to challenge his views with your puppets.

#248 Jesse Liverspot on 03.19.20 at 12:45 am

#180 Stone. BC government has closed the window on evictions, the courts will no longer process eviction notices. The Sheriff will not accept or deliver any eviction applications . This was in the Vancouver Sun this morning. The Emergency Measures Act takes precedent. So, if you’re paying rent and just got Corona unemployed…you can stop paying rent. In the same article mentions that money has been given to Banks to create deferral of mortgages and expects landlords to “pay it forward”. Sucks to be a landlord eh?

Trudeau’s announcements are hardly his creation. In the past few days the globalists have all been singing off the same songsheet word for word. Trudeau has repeated word for word what Macron and Merkel read into teleprompters days ago. It’s a globalist coordination to distract you. More vote buying, little hard evidence that anything Trudeau has announced will be delivered. Keep your eyes open. Don’t believe your local media unless you cross reference it with international news. When you watch German, French, UK, Russian, Turkish, Chinese, Singapore etc news channels every day you’d be surprised how Canada is a just a minor cig in a chain of manipulation globalists undermine democracy worldwide. Don’t horde toilet paper, horde cash, if it’s CDN, it’s the same thing.

#249 Claude Chaulk on 03.19.20 at 8:54 am

Don’t hide but rather brave it, Borrow a million dollars , do some average buying, use the yield to make your monthly payments to the banks as you wait for the upward swing, it’s coming sooner than you think.
A good strategy in these times, will
Put a few hundred thousand in your
Pocket when the dust settles.
Chalkie

#250 Blackdog on 03.19.20 at 10:10 am

It’s a clash of titans — an epic battle between two famous scientists over the world’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In one corner, influential Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis, who wrote a commentary asking whether taking such drastic action to combat the pandemic without evidence it will work is a “fiasco in the making.”

Across the mat, prominent Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch punched back with a defiant response titled: “We know enough now to act decisively against COVID-19.”

Watching from the sidelines? Everybody else. The people who worry the world has gone too far too fast.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-response-scientists-1.5502423