The long & the short

A BC couple is caught on video buying every single cut of meat in the supermarket, pushing other shoppers out of the way to scoop them. They pay and leave. A US Amazonian donates his 17,700 bottles of hand sanitizer after he’s accused of price gouging. And Canada, long a light in the world, shuts its borders.

The world is nuts. You might have noticed. Empty shelves when there are no shortages. Raw panic at a disease from which 93% recover and 80% have mild symptoms. Social rebuke for businesses that just want to stay open. And try to survive. A prime minister who tells all citizens to ‘stay home,’ as the nation’s major airlines wither and croak, restaurants go dark and together we create a recession. Bad enough that oil has dropped by 50%. Now we’re supposed to be 19th-century homesteaders. With Netflix.

Well, economies are made up of people, and right now most of them are loopy. So time will be the only remedy. In that vein, let’s review what the next few months may bring, then the months after that.

The short – the next 120 days
Canada goes into recession, which means a period of negative growth. Contraction. A bunch of people lose their jobs (already happening with Westjet, the oil patch, tourism, lobster guys). A global recession is also possible, which means less demand and lower prices for crude. Alberta is kinda pooched.

Financial markets roil and volatility stays extreme. Look at the Vix…

Where’s the bottom? Dunno yet, but it’s coming. Markets are pricing in not only economic torpor but a 30-40% drop in corporate earnings. That would be historic. And while it’s also temporary, traders are so intensely risk-off that common sense is as unwanted as a share in Suncor or Tesla.

For real estate, this will be the silent spring long remembered. Listings and open houses are being cancelled. The specter of job loss has buyers frozen. Mortgage brokers are putting the brakes on loan approvals since it’s expected house values might suddenly and quickly drop below recent sale prices. Potential buyers face an employment risk that didn’t exist three weeks ago. Concerns about liquidity and credit are making renewals questionable. Especially for people who have depended on Airbnb revenue. Kaput.

But, all these things will pass. In time.

The long – come autumn
First, does anyone really, seriously, truly believe that in a global effort modern science will fail to produce a vaccine? Not me. It’s a done deal. Just need time. (First live test in the US happened today.)

As for the economy, consider that US unemployment is the lowest in a half-century with steady income gains over the last few years. Store shelves are empty right now because people have spent a storm. The guy who owns the indie grocery store nearest me says last Thursday he sold more stuff than during the entire Christmas season. Look at the vids online of hours-long lineups to get into a Calgary Costco, for example. Parts of the economy may be shuttering. Others are red hot.

Once public panic recedes pent-up demand for clothes, cars, iPhones and houses will be intense. It will happen in an environment in which central banks have injected enough stimulus to make Kevin O’Leary grow hair again. Cheapo loans. Oceans of available credit. Direct money transfers to families and businesses. All fuel for the fire.

Needless to say, financial assets will also ignite.

Come the autumn the world will look like a different place. Airplanes will be flying. Stores will be open. The amount of surplus toilet paper will be epic. You will be happy you didn’t bail out of perfectly good assets when they’d lost a third or more of their value, and that you were fully invested when values restored.

Darkness. Dawn. You know the drill.

 

303 comments ↓

#1 Financial Orchid on 03.16.20 at 4:25 pm

1st!

#2 Yukon Elvis on 03.16.20 at 4:28 pm

British Columbia has recorded three new coronavirus deaths, as the total number of cases in the province topped 100 on Monday. But their asses are really clean.

#3 Dave on 03.16.20 at 4:32 pm

So when will it be the best time to buy a house in Vancouver?

#4 Left Holding the bag on 03.16.20 at 4:32 pm

Don’t worry I’ll hold the bag.

#5 Toronto_CA on 03.16.20 at 4:34 pm

Thank you, Mr Turner. Your words are like a soothing balm on a nasty sunburn today.

I am counselling a lot of people to look at China and South Korea, because there’s every chance we will be them in 2 months (coming out of this mess into a bright future).

#6 Ed McNeil on 03.16.20 at 4:35 pm

I think the corona virus thing is overblown. One day people will wake up and see that the emperor is indeed clothed.

#7 Howard on 03.16.20 at 4:36 pm

As for the economy, consider that US unemployment is the lowest in a half-century with steady income gains over the last few years.

———————————

Unemployment is a lagging indicator. It was low during the 2008 crisis too. It began to rise shortly thereafter and peaked in mid-2010.

The Dow is now nearly back to the level it was when Trump was inaugurated in 2017. That’s got to sting. Good for Biden though.

#8 Nick on 03.16.20 at 4:36 pm

Great article. Love the humour. thx

#9 The Wet One on 03.16.20 at 4:37 pm

Yeah.
This will blow over. The only question is, how many less consumers will there be by the time this is over?

Also, when will that vaccine be ready? From what I’m hearing, this fall is rather optimistic. I’ve heard (from the top guy in the U.S. (not Trump, the relevant scientist who’s been on this kind of thing for 6 presidents (i.e. not a hack that Trump put there) more than a year for a vaccine.

We’ll see.

In any event, time to go into buying mode assuming you can manage it.

Let the good times roll!

I wonder what Buffett will be buying and what deals he’ll cook up? Will it be like the last go around during the financial crisis? Time shall tell…

#10 John Bennett on 03.16.20 at 4:38 pm

Thanks, Garth, for a dose of badly-needed medicine. Sitting on the sidelines, watching my balanced portfolio melt down. Not panicking, but I’m not terribly happy, either.

#11 Raging Ranter on 03.16.20 at 4:39 pm

The world has not gone nuts. The world was nuts six weeks ago, when a novel new virus that we knew was coming here was shutting China down, and we were still sending our stock indices to record highs. That was nuts. Only in the past few days have we acted like sane people would act in the face of an emergency. Lumping the responsible officials who are finally taking the preventative actions necessary – however belatedly – in with the meat hoarders and bumwad fetishists, is ridiculous.

Once public panic recedes pent-up demand for clothes, cars, iPhones and houses will be intense. It will happen in an environment in which central banks have injected enough stimulus to make Kevin O’Leary grow hair again. Cheapo loans. Oceans of available credit. Direct money transfers to families and businesses. All fuel for the fire.

You’re correct about that. A supply shock coupled with unprecedented monetary expansion and pent-up demand. Just like 1973. Can you say inflation?

#12 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 4:39 pm

Well, we’ve put management on 1/2 salary and all other staff remain full time for the time being and are encouraged to work remotely.

Pre-emptive slightly, but who knows the future? It might be prudent to close shop entirely for the next few months to preserve capital.

Oh, and for those who enjoy dogpiling anyone owning a business? I’ll personally have no compensation until this recovers… if it does.

#13 Michael King on 03.16.20 at 4:42 pm

Excellent piece, thank you. You are correct.
It’s around 1:30 pm in Vancouver. Just got back from grocery shopping. My local IGA was cleaned out of eggs, pasta and canned tomato products. People need to calm down as you can smell the fear. Not necessary!

#14 Andrew on 03.16.20 at 4:43 pm

Do you not understand there are limits on ICU capacity, go try and say the words you spouted in your first few paragraphs in an ICU that is terrified of not being able to provide treatment and see reaction.

“First clinical trial in US was today”…First injection was today, followed by another in 30 days and observation FOR A YEAR.

We will get through this, but no thanks to your perspective.

#15 J on 03.16.20 at 4:45 pm

Great post Garth – some great one-liners that made me laugh! You have a wonderful gift for both entertaining and insightful writing.
We’ll get through this, and once it’s over we’ll put measures in place to limit this type of thing happening again.
I just hope you and Dorothy take care of yourselves during this event as you may be in a higher risk group. And for other blog dogs out there who are less impacted by this event, please try and lend a helping hand to those more affected such as restaurant workers or health care workers or elderly people with mobility issues. Any positive gestures on your part go a long way towards lifting spirits.

#16 Howard on 03.16.20 at 4:46 pm

Can someone clarify if the CMHC’s mortgage holiday applies to investment properties? I’m assuming no? Or is it too optimistic to believe that, although taxpayers might have to bail out principal residences, at least specuvestors would be left to their own devices?

#17 Sold Out on 03.16.20 at 4:46 pm

#3 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 4:39 pm
Well, we’ve put management on 1/2 salary and all other staff remain full time for the time being and are encouraged to work remotely.

Pre-emptive slightly, but who knows the future? It might be prudent to close shop entirely for the next few months to preserve capital.

Oh, and for those who enjoy dogpiling anyone owning a business? I’ll personally have no compensation until this recovers… if it does.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

You do put a big target on yourself, but I certainly don’t wish ill on you personally, your business or its employees. No more snotty comments from me. Pax.

There will be plenty of misery to go around.

#18 Steven Rowlandson on 03.16.20 at 4:46 pm

“Now we’re supposed to be 19th-century homesteaders. With Netflix.”

Not sure about the Netflix. COVID-19 might stop that.
19th century homesteading is a possibility. Bring on the dollar an acre land sales. We homeless people need a break and a place to live.

#19 Zach on 03.16.20 at 4:48 pm

Long time reader here. First ever post. Just have to say that you do very good work here with your blog, but you have to concede that your advice isn’t always 100% correct. In the same way that you criticize some investors for selling into a storm, only to see a quick rebound, you deserve criticism for always insisting that NOW is the time to buy stocks. It isn’t. I know from reading, that so many of the sudden drops of the last few years were preceded the day before by you, telling people to buy NOW (stock are high, yes they will go higher!). You advised people to do their RRSPs and TFSAs first thing on January 2, 2020. Had they done that, they would’ve lost 30% (and maybe more). Fact is, you are quick to see bubbles in the housing market, but fail to see bubbles in the stock market. If it wasn’t Corona, something else would’ve popped this bubble. I know your argument is that for long term investors, all this is noise. But tell that to the person who invested in MJ last year, rode it halfway down, then decided to “listen” to your advice, and jump in to market ETFs, only to watch them crater. It isn’t ALWAYS the best time to buy. You give good advice generally, but you have to recognize that you are a perma-bull, and you should therefore temper your advice sometimes in recognition of that.

Never has this blog told people to buy stocks. And you clearly have no idea what RRSP or TFSA investing is. When you learn a few basics, come back. – Garth

#20 Phil on 03.16.20 at 4:48 pm

It’s always interesting to watch people come to the realization of what’s possible. Tech sector in big trouble sorry folks not close to the bottom as the pooch and profit loving Garth hopes. If you can’t hold it in your hand, you don’t have it.

#21 SHANE GALLANT on 03.16.20 at 4:49 pm

Is CMHC helping house owners with mortgages?

#22 Adam Smith on 03.16.20 at 4:49 pm

There was a piece in the National Post recommending what seemed like the best strategy. Put all resources into isolating and protecting the elderly and immunocompromised. Allow everyone else to go about their business and catch the illness and then let the vulnerable back out once everyone else has had it. You can’t just ask every contributing member of a society to go on hold indefinitely and have things hold together.

Also Garth, don’t be too positive on a vaccine. There are four regular coronaviruses that make up the cold season and we haven’t managed to make a vaccine for a single one yet and people have certainly been trying to cure the common cold for a while now.

#23 Alberta Ed on 03.16.20 at 4:49 pm

The cure may be worse than the disease. Remember the H1N1/swine flu pandemic that was declared in June, 2009? Obama didn’t declare it a national emergency until October. Worldwide, swine flu may have killed more than 200,000 people, more than the number infected with Coronavirus to date, and most people who get Coronavirus recover fully. Hard to understand the panic occurring today.

#24 Steven Rowlandson on 03.16.20 at 4:51 pm

All that stimulus will not get into the hands of those that need it. It will go to the banks and key industries.
Main street will get almost none of the cash.

#25 earthboundmisfit on 03.16.20 at 4:52 pm

Only this time it’s different … because of Donald-the-Dim.

#26 Stan Brooks on 03.16.20 at 4:53 pm

The world as of now seems pretty normal to me, considering the circumstances. Just lost the normalcy bias due to the easy credit and illusion of ‘growth’.

Paranoia is a survival instinct at difficult times, naivety is a killer.

In autumn the jobless inflationary depression becomes evident to everyone, including Shawn Allen.

Extreme greed replaced by extreme fear. It happened in just a month.

There is no easy recovery from this one. Fear lasts long time. Pity for the indebted sheeple, it was warned properly.

Trying to go against the herd requires strategic position/out of it. How is the toilet paper shortage impacting all brave souls who did not understand the crowd cravings and were laughing at it? How soft can cashmere really be…

Modern just-in time delivery, integrated supply chain society can be really, really fragile.

No amount of rate cuts will help with that.

Once the train is derailed, good luck in getting it back on track.

Ever heard of Humpty Dumpty?

Cheers,

#27 Brian Ripley on 03.16.20 at 4:55 pm

My chart of REAL PRICE of HOUSING of Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary Single Family Detached and the Bank of Canada $CAD Commodity Index and 5 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

http://www.chpc.biz/real-price-of-housing.html

Real and nominal peaks in the housing sector basically occurred in 2017

Although FOMO 2.0 has irrupted in Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal, employees who have already reached their debt limits are not going to be relied on to borrow more just to maintain lifestyle.

The door to deflation has been opened by the crude oil collapse and by Covid-19 which is going to force social distancing.

Remember when big box stores entered your community? The digital economy is going to jump to the next phase now.

I spotted this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/drive/mobility/article-could-gms-electric-move-keep-elon-musk-awake-at-night/

“This is a big deal. General Motors, the company that killed its first electric car in 2001 after it was able to water down fuel economy standards, plans to out-Tesla Tesla and sell a million EVs a year by 2025 – and do it at a profit. Eventually, GM plans to sell only EVs – and it’s a smart move for a company that has seen sales drop. Globe & Mail, March 10, 2020

#28 FreeBird on 03.16.20 at 4:56 pm

A friend who’s Philippino (palliative nurse) cleared her throat at Costco and everybody near stepped away and glared. She tried to say “just a tickle Im not sick, really” but she just checked out quickly. She said while there a young woman was elbowed in the face for TP and left crying on the phone. My friend was shocked and said it was surreal. She was told to try again early morning for TP but she’s given up. We’ll give her some if needed. I mean seriously. I know we’re all a bit tense (some more so obv) but how is any of this helping? Mob mentality.

Steady COVID related email stream from many business and health clinic I/we deal with. Also team of experts from China carrying medical supplies flew to Italy. NYC has warned may run out of hosp beds. Be cautious not panicked. Interesting charts for virus (there’s also live data maps online but avoid if already tense):

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts

#29 BobC on 03.16.20 at 4:59 pm

Another generation will learn to spend wisely and pay off debt while saving for a rainy day.

#30 JacqueShellacque on 03.16.20 at 5:01 pm

The most expensively educated and credentialed elite in human history:
-incites mass panic in people unlikely to be affected (almost everyone) rather than putting measures in place to deal with those who are most likely to be (oldsters)?
-pumps the economy with liquidity then takes measures to discourage or even restrict economic activity, again inciting panic in people who have no reason to fear anything?

#31 Keyboard Smasher on 03.16.20 at 5:02 pm

Okay, so the money printing trick no longer works…

W-what happens now? Do they print more and run-up inflation into the double digits?

#32 YouKnowWho on 03.16.20 at 5:03 pm

I’m heading out to change the battery in my favourite beater Tissot Titanium watch.

Ever since that battery died, it hasn’t been fun times.

#33 jess on 03.16.20 at 5:07 pm

like “tarp” The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) created and run by the U.S. Treasury following the 2008 financial crisis, consisted of efforts to stabilize the financial system by having the government buy mortgage-backed securities and bank stocks.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/troubled-asset-relief-program-tarp.asp

for main street? even libertarians consider good policy ;
direct cash-to-citizens proposal is gaining traction.

Greg Mankiw, a former top economic adviser to President George W. Bush, has embraced the idea.

“I would start with a $1000 check for every American, sent out as quickly as possible,” Mankiw told CNN’s John Harwood. “That would work out to be about 1.7% of GDP. But if this pandemic continues, we might have to do it again in a month.”

The proposal, which has been advocated by Obama adviser Jason Furman, would send $1,000 to every American immediately. Furman has estimated the proposal would cost $350 billion.

Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, who was advised by Mankiw in both of his presidential campaigns, has also voiced support for such a measure.

Although its chances of passing Congress and President Donald Trump’s desk are unclear, Trump economic adviser Larry Kudlow would not rule the proposal out when asked by CNN.

The chamber is calling for three measures:

A cancellation of all payroll taxes paid by employers for the months of March, April and May, which would be a monthly relief of some $100 billion for companies and could give them breathing room to fund paychecks.
Expanding and streamlining of loan programs for small businesses experiencing revenue loss as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.
The creation of credit facilities to provide loans and loan guarantees to employers with more than 500 employees that have witnessed revenue losses.

Stocks fell to session lows in the final hour of trading, as President Donald Trump said the outbreak could last until July or August. The Dow dropped more than 3,000 points at its worst.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/economy/job-losses-coronavirus/index.html

#34 Chris on 03.16.20 at 5:09 pm

Any updated views on preferred shares? They are down bigly. Would be great blog posting – Chris

Yield 5.9%. Big upside. Sweet buy. – Garh

#35 theShiny on 03.16.20 at 5:09 pm

https://goldprice.org/gold-price-charts/20-year-gold-price-history-in-canadian-dollars-per-ounce

This is all you need to know. and what goes around comes around.

#36 Faron on 03.16.20 at 5:11 pm

It’s almost like the population has been thrown into a cold lake. The first response is senseless thrashing. As time wears on, everyone is still in the lake, but the shock fades, people settle down, look for shore and start figuring out how to get there.

This is the thrash. No one knows what to do but for god’s sake do something. Amid all of that, there is real illness, misery and death at the very core for the old or vulnerable.

Sooner than we think, the thrash will fade away. The next step will be getting used to the water and heading to shore and hauling out. When that phase comes for us in virusland, even though the virus will be here and may just be peaking, it will be something we have adapted to so our behaviour will get more sensible, markets will stabilize (except when earnings reports or bad economic data or news of flare ups come in). People will adapt to the hand they are given and find work arounds for their needs.

Probably like everyone, I can’t quite tell if this is actually happening. You go outside and everyone looks normal, smiles at you, dogs wrestle. Here in Vic it’s sunny and beautiful. I guess when folks are told to STOP, they have to fill the space with some mental noise like worry or TeeVee news. Even to my pessimistic self, this is all seeming overwrought. I’m calling peak thrash this week then the fade will begin just like the tapers in the spikes of the VIX.

Only twist is the potential for resurgence in the fall when our guard is just coming down. Or CDN housing bubble popping and causing more harm than anyone has planned for.

I just plopped half of my last paycheck into the RRSP. What to spend it on?

#37 NorthOf49 on 03.16.20 at 5:11 pm

A bit disingenuous to lump all reactions together and call the world nuts. Sure the Costco shoppers are wacko but they’ve never been sane on a good day. Recall how much joy it was to poke fun at them on this blog over the years, them and Kia owners. Governments on the other hand are doing what needs to be done so that healthcare systems are not overburdened to the point they are in Italy, where decisions over who gets treatment and who doesn’t occur daily. I don’t see you calling corporations nuts for shutting down offices, shuttering storefronts or holding their hands out for a government bailout. Our firm told 10,000 workers to go home and work remotely even though they don’t fully understand the risk to our communication systems. Our business resiliency has never been tested to this limit before. They did this because they understand that people’s lives matter more than a quarterly earnings bump. And sure, maybe 93% recovery rate and 80% have mild symptoms. Are you ready test that prognosis yourself Garth? We’re not exactly Spring chickens, chiseled abs or not. It wasn’t that long ago that you were flogging survival gear and generators on your alt site. Anyway, I still like your sense of humour and you’re probably bang on with your prognostications. Stay well.

Of the many businesses I have started and owned, one was focused on selling gear for renewal energy applications – solar panels, battery storage units, home-use wind turbines etc. It’s always been an interest of mine, and this was years before Greta was born. It was not survivalist, but practical and useful, especially for rural dwellers. BTW, I’ve had a stand-by generator at my residential address for 3o years. It’s like buying house insurance, but you actually get to benefit from it (unlike insurance). – Garth

#38 I’m stupid on 03.16.20 at 5:12 pm

Hi Garth I’m preparing to fire a torpedo into the market right now. I’m getting a 500k heloc in place (should be ready in 2 days) I’m going to fire it at Boeing, Disney, Exxon, royal Caribbean, And few others. What’s your opinion?

#39 Marco on 03.16.20 at 5:13 pm

Well, of course, The Capitalists Will Sell Us the Rope with Which We Will Hang them….
But before that, they would have enough meat to eat and enough toilet paper to clean their bums….

#40 mj on 03.16.20 at 5:17 pm

from what I am reading, royal bank will be the first to cut rates tomorrow. Looks like it will be the full 50 points. Prime rate will be 2.95
https://ottawacitizen.com/pmn/business-pmn/royal-bank-of-canada-to-cut-prime-rate-to-2-95/wcm/29918e2c-4edf-4b4c-9ca3-59859c44e13a

#41 Josh Lambden on 03.16.20 at 5:18 pm

Not time to buy yet unless you plan on selling the rallies, or you’re prepared to stay the course if things continue to plunge another 10-30%.

Garth’s right of course, there will come a time when the fear starts to fade (new cases start to drop off, a vaccine is announced, travel restrictions and business closures start to ease, etc.).

#42 vyrguy on 03.16.20 at 5:19 pm

1hr before trading, I did a tactical rebalance. Trimmed bonds, gold and cash, bought equities, reit’s. all etfs of course. Took a few tries with limit orders due to insane volatility.

ARKK on sale today 37% off from all time high.

When this is all said and done, ARKK may be 60% to 70% off. I’ll keep trimming and rebalancing till we bottom.

Great to be balanced and diversified, having assets to trim and capital to redeploy during a fire sale.

#43 Andrewski on 03.16.20 at 5:19 pm

I’m thinking that the reason for all the huge lines at Costco is due to their very generous return policy. Once C-19 runs it’s course, look for massive return lines of TP, etc!

#44 Investx on 03.16.20 at 5:20 pm

Canada shuts its borders.

How “xenophobic”! Right, Garth?

#45 JSS on 03.16.20 at 5:21 pm

I was at Walmart today. I got a 12 roll toilet paper.

#46 Beso on 03.16.20 at 5:23 pm

This blog is now more like a SPA for relaxation, otherwise we would’ve lost our minds!
Thanks Garth ;-)

#47 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.16.20 at 5:23 pm

Corona vaccine? I ain’t taking one. My body, my choice. The last vaccine I got (32 years ago) ruined my intestines. Also, there hasn’t been any new cure for any disease in over 50 years.

#48 Ed on 03.16.20 at 5:25 pm

Coronavirus Australia: Queensland researchers find ‘cure’, want drug trial

So theres that

#49 Leo Trollstoy on 03.16.20 at 5:25 pm

The 40 year bond bubble is coming to an end

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4332152-for-bonds-probably-game-over

#50 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.16.20 at 5:26 pm

Typo? 93% recover? More like 98%, and that’s with most mild cases not reported which raises the fatality rate.

Much ado about nothing. That said, why are most governments making such a big show out of it?

Enquiring minds wanna know.

#51 Piano_Man87 on 03.16.20 at 5:26 pm

“First, does anyone really, seriously, truly believe that in a global effort modern science will fail to produce a vaccine? Not me. It’s a done deal. Just need time. (First live test in the US happened today.)”

They’ve been trying to make one for HIV for decades. Almost 40 million people have HIV right now, so there is definitely a good business case for it. And we’ve never successfully made a vaccine for any coronavirus (SARS, MERS, etc.) The WHO says it would take minimum one year to make a vaccine for Covid-19, which would be incredibly fast. Clinical trials take time to do safely. By then the virus will have burned through most the planet.

Depending on if/when if mutates, this could be something that is just part of human life forever. Like the seasonal flu, but more dangerous.

#52 KM on 03.16.20 at 5:30 pm

I understand the point of not cashing out one’s investment account (balanced), but can you tell me if I should still put money into it regularly or wait until everything cools down?

I’ve no bloody clue what to do…

#53 cto on 03.16.20 at 5:30 pm

You’re right Garth!
Of course it will get better!
Really all this did was create the conditions for a real estate price extravaganza of epic proportions come this fall! the conditions were approaching a month ago, even with 1.75 prime. Now look whats happened…
Financials will come back, but condo investments will far surpass the financials when the euphoria begins.
What do you think???

#54 Mike on 03.16.20 at 5:31 pm

Your prescient prediction is predicated on a Trump win, which of course is in the bag!

#55 Franco on 03.16.20 at 5:32 pm

I guess this is a story we will talk about in our old age, at least I hope we do.

#56 not 1st on 03.16.20 at 5:35 pm

Trump said the exact thing you just Garth did and the MSM tore him apart relentlessly for weeks.

I fear the MSM, my fellow irrational humans and stunned lefties far more than any virus.

#57 Stone on 03.16.20 at 5:37 pm

Down -15.09% YTD. Can it just stop already?

#58 G on 03.16.20 at 5:37 pm

re: “Now we’re supposed to be 19th-century homesteaders. With Netflix.”

Don’t watch any of the movies staring ‘viruses’!

It’ll not be helpful for you at all.
I found out the hard way!
Good sleep helps your imine system to fight off many things. And nobody wants poor sleep anyway.
Netflix virus movies will not make your life or sleep better. They might do the opposite.

Garth said not to watch virus movies on Netflix awhile back. And he was right again!!!
Unfortunately his advice to not watch came about 12 hours to late for me.

Don’t make that mistake, I know.
Listen to Garth, don’t watch any Netflix ‘virus’ movies. If you don’t listen, you’ll find out the hard way and be sorry. I assure you.

Don’t panic, this COVID19 thing will pass eventually and life will go on.
And sooner than you might think. (I hope)
Keep washing your hand and stop touching your face.

The markets will go back up. Don’t miss the bounce by balling now. You didn’t guess the top and you’ll just miss the bottom. If you panic and get out you’ll just solidify paper lose to real lose. Nobody wants that.
Listen to Garth, he is often right about many things. You will see.

#59 Re-Cowtown on 03.16.20 at 5:40 pm

C’mon GT, it’s not “oil patch” it’s “oilpatch” one word. When you call it “oil patch” it implies that Trudeau is going to swoop in and patch it up.

I wish the oilpatch (see; one word) got a tenth of the attention that the Tides Foundation gets from Trudeau. It’s funny how people who work to build the country are shunned but those who seek to destroy it are feted.

Isn’t it illegal for a federally registered charity like the Tides Foundation to lobby the government to kill other industries ? It should be, because the people who fund the Tides Foundation are making a killing on killing the oilpatch (again, one word).

#60 Barb on 03.16.20 at 5:41 pm

“Now we’re supposed to be 19th-century homesteaders.”

———————————-

Haven’t a clue how to make bread.
Heard it takes a bag of flour.
And other stuff.

#61 not 1st on 03.16.20 at 5:43 pm

Apple will have a new iPhone before we have a functional vaccine. That’s the consumers priorities. If you will wait in line for an iPhone the least your can do is wait in for tp.

This is just a clear indication that we have a large group of very uneducated, dullards that have no clue how the world functions.

#62 Qintilian on 03.16.20 at 5:43 pm

“Once public panic recedes pent-up demand for clothes, cars, iPhones and houses will be intense.”

Maybe not, don’t forget the mega-jumbo consumer debt that has to be paid back. Consumers have been on a debt binge way too long,

As for the markets, the correction was well overdue, virus accentuated it for sure, but oil was signaling it for a while.

#63 BE WATER MY FRIEND - BRUCE LEE on 03.16.20 at 5:46 pm

Well mr.turner, well it comes to being fluid you’re not water, you’re concrete with steel bars in it.
Enjoy this lovely Monday.

#64 Westcdn on 03.16.20 at 5:46 pm

I don’t know if anyone has supplied this link. The vaccine technology shows tremendous potential to a quick cure to CV19. https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/

I started nibbling at some equities today. It doesn’t like bottom yet but I couldn’t resist what looked like bargains. I certainly didn’t think blue chip bank stocks would be down 10% in a day.

My big worry is businesses will cut people and dividends hugely.

It looks to me that Trump musing about replacing Powell about a week ago really lit a fire under the man’s ass. I think people crave power/status more that money. It is proof to me that having lots of money does not make you smart.

#65 Jim on 03.16.20 at 5:53 pm

Brent 29.0000 5.67 -16.35%
Fed says holy s*it, what’s next?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-ePcCM88Xs

#66 Pierre on 03.16.20 at 6:02 pm

“Raw panic at a disease from which 93% recover”

With all due respect, isn’t it borderline sociopathic to disregards what this means for the other 7 percent?

#67 Bob in Hamilton on 03.16.20 at 6:03 pm

In Garth We Trust.

#68 Herb on 03.16.20 at 6:09 pm

#238 Attrition (12:53 pm to-day); #15 Jess,

good assessment of the possibilities. I would add 1.5 trillion in derivatives looking for a bail out.

Time for panic is fleeting. Flu viruses tend to disappear with warmer weather (how many summer flus have you heard of?), to reappear in adapted infectious form and a new label next flu season.

#69 Shawn Allen on 03.16.20 at 6:09 pm

Irrational? Maybe…

Raw panic at a disease from which 93% recover and 80% have mild symptoms.

******************************
That would mean a 7% death rate. And if it spreads rapidly, huge numbers get it. Are people irrational for not wanting to fool around with something that has a 7% death rate? Or even 1%?

We are now a society that gets scared of contaminants measured in a few parts per billion. We are not used very many people at all dying from communicable disease. Someone suggested the flu numbers may be sort of like the supposed deaths from air pollution. Like they said, who actually knows anyone that died of flu?

Maybe it won’t harm kids. But what parent would want to take a chance? Kids also need their parents.

A huge swath of the population is over 60 even over 70 etc. Why should that segment not panic? Even most 90 year olds are not interested in dying any earlier than necessary.

This is a sort of tragedy of the commons. Each individual rationally withdraws into isolation. Collectively that ruins the economy. Isolation remains rational for each individual, no?

Life has a 100% death probability. – Garth

#70 CEW9 on 03.16.20 at 6:11 pm

#29 BobC on 03.16.20 at 4:59 pm

Another generation will learn to spend wisely and pay off debt while saving for a rainy day.

________________________________

Or they will be like my great uncle and keep every milk carton, yogurt container, and plastic bag in they ever get in the basement “just in case”.

#71 Shawn Allen on 03.16.20 at 6:12 pm

You think Buffett is buying?

I am betting not much. He did not buy much during the Christmas 2018 market rout.

He likes to by Berkshire stock back cheap but said repeatedly they will not “prop” the stock.

He is likely to sit on at least a $100 billion cash until this plays out.

#72 CEW9 on 03.16.20 at 6:13 pm

Can someone please post a reliable & reputable link to this “Mortgage Holiday” business?

I see some Euro banks offering leniency, but nothing from BoC or CMHC comes up on the news searches.

#73 AB on 03.16.20 at 6:15 pm

Would you say this is a good time to break the fixed rate mortgage and switch to a variable?

#74 akashic record on 03.16.20 at 6:15 pm

Blablah…

What do you guys buy?

#75 Shawn Allen on 03.16.20 at 6:16 pm

S&P 500 earnings estimates?

No one can have any clue on that. With huge parts of the economy shutting down a 30 to 40% reduction in earnings in 2020 may be hugely optimistic.

Corporate investment? Most companies will be wanting to hold onto cash on an emergency basis. Forget capital investment. Dividend cuts / eliminations that were recently impossible to comprehend may be days or weeks away.

#76 Julie K. on 03.16.20 at 6:17 pm

Talking about business….

Prior to immigrating to Canada in the late 60’s, my dear Macedonian husband and his family used nothing but ripped up squares of newspaper impaled on a single nail inside their outhouse.

Nary a complaint.

Peace.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.16.20 at 6:17 pm

I was in a Sobey’s grocery store in Halifax today.
( I’m getting closer Garth.)
No shortages except toilet paper.
No one panicking.
Nothing but Media hype and stupid people.
So……Unless you’re 75 years old or older.
No….big……deal…..
But the CBC ran back to back Corona stories ( art galleries are CLOSED! Libraries are CLOSED! Endless interviews with anything to do with the virus….. My gawd…)with nothing, absolutely nothing mentioned about the Stock market and the ramifications of a melting economy….. CBC ….govt employees, safe in their job security…..for now.

#78 far and away on 03.16.20 at 6:19 pm

Thanks Garth.
Excellent post

#79 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 6:23 pm

Finally! A lifetime of scrimping, saving and investing, and now we’re set for retirement.

Let’s see… travel, grandkids, gardening… so many things to do. Where to start??

Okay, here we… … that’s strange… … uh oh…

#80 G on 03.16.20 at 6:23 pm

Hi #47 Bytor the Snow Dog, re:”Much ado about nothing. That said, why are most governments making such a big show out of it?
Enquiring minds wanna know.”

Because it can spread faster than the seasonal flu. 2% sounds low, but it is multiple times higher than the seasonal flu. If people are allowed to keep doing normal things it will spread OMG fast. The medical system will quickly be over whelmed. And more people will die than needs to other wise, if there is still medical help available at that point, if allowed to spread with out trying to slow it down buy staying away from others if you have it or being near some with it, that doesn’t even know they have it.

Italy medical system is swamped now!!!
If it’s spread is not slowed enough we will be like Italy sooner than you think. There at about 7% dying presently. Over 65 and older not even trying to help at this point, not enough stuff and people to help everyone now, because it spread so fast. Can be spread by people not even feeling sick if and when they have it.

Two weeks self isolating, you give it time to show if you have it or not. Mean while if it turns out you do you weren’t spreading it around for days. If you have it most get better on there own, but it take a bit more time once feeling sick. But you eventually stop shedding virus that could infect others.
Some people get sick enough they will need medical help or else.

Not sure how old you are or your medical condition, but 20% may need a medical help of some sort, like more oxygen and or a hospital bed. Some of them more medical help in an ICU bed to keep breathing. And not all these people are “old”. Some are your age I’m sure.

We all want it to spread slower so if we get sick and ours isn’t the 80% mild case there is still medical help available for us all and for you too, or someone you know.

More info and update try these two Dr’s. or Health Canada.

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos?disable_polymer=1

https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos/videos?disable_polymer=1

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19.html

#81 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 6:24 pm

[cough]

#82 john m on 03.16.20 at 6:25 pm

We are in uncharted territory and it is just beginning,the world has changed in a matter of a few days and to predict or attempt to predict the future is impossible at this early stage in my opinion.

#83 Larry Laffer on 03.16.20 at 6:26 pm

Looking at how many recover from Covid-19 is irrelevant. Italy went from 230 declared cases 3 weeks ago to more than 21000 today (with likely 10 times more infected), including 2000 who are dead. This nanothing is on an exponential growth spree that is exceeding the capacity of one of the best health care system in the World. Unless we take drastic measures, Covid-19 won’t slow down, and the amount of dead people will greatly exceed the seasonal flu. Business-as-usual and thoughts-and-prayers just won’t do it. Social distancing is not about starting a panic, it’s about being responsible.

#84 Vancouver Brit on 03.16.20 at 6:28 pm

Curious of peoples thoughts on leveraging into this market? Unfortunately all of my cash is invested and I’m unable to invest any more without taking on an LOC of some sort. Sadly, despite the massive interest rate cuts, I’m told an unsecured LOC will be somewhere in the 6-10% range. Got a 9% offer from TD, which sucks.

While I wouldn’t dream of this long-term as the interest would be higher than the returns, I’m certainly tempted to dip my toes in now the markets are in such a state and will (hopefully) bounce back rapidly once this blows over.

I hate sitting on the sidelines while there are so many buying opportunities around.

#85 sailedaway on 03.16.20 at 6:29 pm

#12 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 4:39 pm

“I’ll personally have no compensation until this recovers… if it does.”

You’re not so much a target, more like a firing range.

More important to mankind right now the news around curevac: Trump seemingly tried to buy it, Germany refused to sell it, bottom line seems they’re advancing very well on another vaccine.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.16.20 at 6:31 pm

@#272 Barb
” vancouvers mayor is closing golf courses….”
+++++

I didnt think it was possible. This mayor is stupider than the last mayor……. That’s impressive in a left coast kinda way.

#87 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 6:33 pm

Ponder this:

The company of the world’s best investor is currently 23% below its 52-week high and he is sitting on $128B in cash while the investing world crumbles to new lows around him.

Hmmm… anybody think Berkshire might be a good investment? Hmmm…

#88 MF on 03.16.20 at 6:36 pm

#38 I’m stupid on 03.16.20 at 5:12 pm

Be careful. The selling could continue for months. This is a threat that will not just go away, but be with us for good. We have to accept that will all be exposed to this virus at some point, like you were exposed to novel viruses as a kid and have forgotten about. People will have damage to their lungs. Others will die. A vaccine is a year away at the very minimum, and might only have 40% effectiveness like the flu. This is not just a dip in the markets. It’s a fundamental altering of the economy.

What we are witnessing is pivotal. We will probably see a shift in the way people work, socialize, travel, behave etc. Geo politics could change. Demographics. Institutions, policy etc. This is different.
All bets are really off as to which industry will be crushed forever (maybe cruises?), and which will become more important, like technology.

Garth always tells us. Markets hate the unknown. And right, now, there is NOTHING we can predict about the situation in the short term or long term to give us clarity.

MF

Sheesh. Stop hyperventilating. It’s not WW2. – Garth

#89 jess on 03.16.20 at 6:39 pm

first human test in washington state volunteer jennifer haller …Bill Gates flu study turned cov2 messenger RNA-coming online -one year available from now …energy must be placed on social distancing etc testing Flattening the curve gives time.

respirators are made in Reno.

Nearly 7 million San Francisco Bay area residents ordered to shelter in place
Nearly seven million people living in a wide swath of Northern California, including Silicon Valley, are being ordered to shelter in place starting at midnight on Monday.

Along with San Francisco, which previously announced its order, residents in San Mateo, Santa Clara, Marin, Alameda, and Contra Costa counties, along with the city of Berkeley are being required to stay home, according to an order from health officials in those jurisdictions.

“This decision is exponentially difficult,” Santa Clara County Health Officer Sara Cody said, but added that a regional approach is necessary. “We know we need to do this.”

Health services, grocery stores, gas stations, banks, and food delivery services will remain open. Mass transit will stay open, but it is only to be used for travel to and from essential services.

Mayor Bill de Blasio said city officials are considering “everything” in terms of “curfew” or other possibilities.
“Stay home as much as you can. That guidance might get a lot sharper at any point,” de Blasio said.
As of now, it’s acceptable to get some exercise and fresh air if social distancing is practiced.

#90 Gregor Samsa on 03.16.20 at 6:41 pm

>#12 Sail away
>Well, we’ve put management on 1/2 salary…

I don’t take take joy in others misery, but pretty sure this same poster was one of the guys crowing about his massive gains from buying the dip on Friday….

Cowboys, please turn in your hats at the door…

Some advice I’ve read recently is that buying into the market when VIX (volatility index) is above 30 is essentially gambling. It’s currently 82.

#91 Yukon Elvis on 03.16.20 at 6:45 pm

#50 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.16.20 at 5:26 pm
Typo? 93% recover? More like 98%, and that’s with most mild cases not reported which raises the fatality rate.
…………………………

Conflicting data out there. I read on one news site that 8% of people over 70 become fatalities. Biggest problem in today’s world is sifting thru the bs to establish what is actually true.

#92 Ustabe on 03.16.20 at 6:48 pm

…She said while there a young woman was elbowed in the face for TP and left crying on the phone. My friend was shocked and said it was surreal. She was told to try again early morning for TP but she’s given up…

You don’t have to go to Costco in order to purchase toilet paper.

Any sporting goods store such as Cabellas, Dicks, etc has toilet paper. Any marine store has toilet paper. Any small, local chain or non chain drug store has toilet paper. The 7-11 closest to me has toilet paper.

You could even go to Canadian Tire and buy a pack of microfiber cloths, a pail with lid, some Clorox and do it that way…draw straws for who gets to do that load of laundry.

#93 Calgary Rip Off on 03.16.20 at 6:49 pm

Since 1993 when I was a student at UW Seattle Ive performed social isolation. My idea of social distancing is 10 miles around me. As a grad student in Idaho I would often run many miles in the wheatland, alone. Those were fun times and oftentimes I didnt see another human for weeks.

For some reason humans see a need to jetset and spread viruses. Fortunate that most people are not like me as the entire planet would be backrupt. I dont like people’s thinking or spending habits.

The reason there is panic is people are confronted with reality as it always has been: Death is imminent at any time. Most are not ready and are more concerned at being fat asses or general stupid behavior and wasting their time. Consequently most are idiots and many will die from this Covid mess. Perhaps I may be one of them. Fortunately I dont have to decide which patients live or die if it comes to that. It is someone else’s problem.

#94 Dr Talc on 03.16.20 at 6:56 pm

Pandemic?? In reality- means forced closures, signs: Condemned, Quarantined, Hazard, No Entry etc
In Toronto? John Tory is asking business to listen to his recomedations ha ha

#95 Treasure Island CEO - Margin Call - .88 cents offshore on 03.16.20 at 6:58 pm

Garth:

We are about 30% down and all my math points towards about 60% down for a bottom with buying opportunity over the next year. House prices are going to tank 40% by May 2020 – millennials rejoice. Sales activity is going to freeze. Same thing happened in 2008. And the crappy part about housing is that it drags out – you won’t see your current price for at least 10 years from now (yes your first dollar of profit from a home bought in 2020 will be in 2030 if you even survive with it that long).

Regardless of where the bottom hits, this the buying opportunity for ETFs throughout the year (probably before autumn) that only comes every 10 or so years.

People pulling their investments, like everyone I am talking with are so dumb (unless needing the liquidity by some margin call or housing yank where your LTVs or cash flow crashes and where your hand is forced in these situations) where crystallizing any losses at your own discretion (without your hand being forced) certifies you as dumb and like I say, dumb people pay the price, literally.

#96 Les on 03.16.20 at 7:00 pm

HA! I said to the Costco lady, as I returned some things, “Just imagine how busy you will be when all the hoarders return all that toilet paper.” HA! HA!

#97 9 months from now, guess what on 03.16.20 at 7:00 pm

You will have to read this entire post to find out my prediction in 9 to 12 months.
First, thanks Garth we are all stressed.
Humour is good!
Just when you think bottom hit and bought, it drops again.
Blue chip all the way. Nerves of steel!
I am trying not to over analyze what happens when people stop buying for a few months
Same goes for all this debt.
But as said above inflation in the future
So here’s my prediction….drum roll the answer is in the title.
Think back to when the lights went out Nov 1965 a circuit breaker broke and put the whole north eastern US and Ontario and Quebec into the dark.
So what happened in the dark?
Yep 9 months later a baby boom. So we need to strategize on what stocks to buy with the baby boom.
Have a great day wink wink

#98 Yukon Elvis on 03.16.20 at 7:02 pm

#36 Faron on 03.16.20 at 5:11 pm

Only twist is the potential for resurgence in the fall when our guard is just coming down. Or CDN housing bubble popping and causing more harm than anyone has planned for.
…………………………………….

………or we get another rail blockade and cash sitting on the sidelines says to hell with this place, Canada is no longer investible.

#99 TedFiftyFour on 03.16.20 at 7:03 pm

93% recover and 80% have mild symptoms
So what’s all the panic about

#100 Fat Tony Alberta on 03.16.20 at 7:03 pm

The dust will settle and the Covid 19 mortality rate will be less than 0.6% likely closer to 0.3%. You are going to have to figure out some other way to die than this.

Source Dr. Amesh Adalja, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Actual expert on this topic.

If only I could get my hands on more cash, I would be buying into this market no matter what. I scraped up all the lazy cash I had lying around on March 2, and gave it to Garth to buy in.

Selling into a down market is for chumps, chimps and cretins.

#101 G on 03.16.20 at 7:03 pm

Hi #52 KM, re: I’ve no bloody clue what to do…

Generally, (correct me if I’m wrong Garth.)
If you just keep adding regularly as you have been doing it will average out the lows and the highs. Which you can’t guess when they are anyway. As it goes up people don’t thing twice about adding more. If it’s down and you pause to long waiting for a sign, you’ll miss the bounce up. This bounce could be big.

It might go up and down near term, especially if we hear about some famous person getting really sick.
You can’t guess the when, no one can. If you could you wouldn’t be asking.

Just remember most people will be ok. Not all, but most, even more if the spread can be kept slow enough so the medical system isn’t swamped all at once with large numbers of very sick.

#102 AGuyInVancouver on 03.16.20 at 7:03 pm

#28 FreeBird on 03.16.20 at 4:56 pm
A friend who’s Philippino (palliative nurse) cleared her throat at Costco and everybody near stepped away and glared. She tried to say “just a tickle Im not sick, really” but she just checked out quickly. She said while there a young woman was elbowed in the face for TP and left crying on the phone. My friend was shocked and said it was surreal. She was told to try again early morning for TP but she’s given up. We’ll give her some if needed. I mean seriously. I know we’re all a bit tense (some more so obv) but how is any of this helping? Mob mentality…
– – –
It’s Costco, what do people expect? You’re dealing with bottom feeders already.

#103 conan on 03.16.20 at 7:05 pm

The PTB are trying to flatten the curve of people who are sick with Corona at any one time. They have also instructed a certain strategic segment of our manufacturing industry to stop building weapons and start building medical ventilators.

Too many people getting sick with Corona, at the same time, and it will overload the health system. If you get the secondary infection from Corona , and do not have use of a ventilator, you are dead.

And that is the problem in a nut shell.

#104 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 7:05 pm

#12 Sail away

Well, we’ve put management on 1/2 salary…

—————————

#71 Gregor Samsa on 03.16.20 at 6:41 pm

I don’t take take joy in others misery, but pretty sure this same poster was one of the guys crowing about his massive gains from buying the dip on Friday….

—————————

C’mon Gregor, take ownership of your schadenfreude!

If you’re going to be an a-hole, just be a proper a-hole instead of simpering around. I’d be happy to offer tips.

I mostly offered that to demonstrate the state of the industry. Take me out of the equation; we’re talking a couple dozen jobs at risk here. Serious business when you multiply by all small and medium size companies in Canada.

#105 MF on 03.16.20 at 7:06 pm

#50 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.16.20 at 5:26 pm

Please educate yourself before commenting. Pandemics are almost never one and done, like SARS, which we got lucky with. They usually come in successive waves that can last years. Some of the more noteworthy pandemics (like 1918) came in such waves, with the second wave decimating the young, healthy population. It did this because it provoked a massive immune response that was so powerful it damaged lungs. The stronger the immune system, the more damage.

I’m not drawing parallels between COVID and the Spanish Flu, I’m saying no one has any clue what will happen. So no, it’s not just “match ado about nothing”.

#53 cto on 03.16.20 at 5:30 pm

I’ll tell you what I think. I think the “conditions” were ripe for a massive recession since 2015. The “economy” was based on low rates and kicking the can down the road so some other schmuck can deal with it. Now that we will have some guaranteed job losses, anyone in debt hundreds of thousands for their “investment condo” will be in a tough spot.

A shift is occurring right now. The strategy of the last 12 years has been: be taken advantage by the real estate industry, go in as much debt as possible and ignore it as long as you can pay monthly payments, hang on for dear life, get bailed out by the bank of Canada, post on facebook for likes and cry youself to sleep.

As we head towards zero rates. The ammo is all used up, and the likelihood of being continuously bailed out is far less.

MF

#106 Sold Out on 03.16.20 at 7:13 pm

Sheesh. Stop hyperventilating. It’s not WW2. – Garth

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

We should hope it is like WW-2, and kicks off an unprecedented expansion of the middle class that drives consumption and innovation through the roof.

While I have a taken a vow of civility towards my new BFF, Sail Away, I won’t hold the rest of you to it.

#107 Berkshire on 03.16.20 at 7:15 pm

Some rumour going around Berkshire is buying airlines namely air canada. That’s interesting.

I wrote a letter to comrade Horgan. What would have happened if we had no electricity for two weeks, no water for two weeks the highways were closed.
It would be a nightmare

Anyway Garth, in regards to your comment about WW2 it was a totally different generation they were the generation that understood the need to sacrifice!
My mother told me during the depression they gave men bread and water even though they personalLy had almost nothing.
What about war rations. Everyone understood the need for civil obedience to sacrifice.

Can you imagine anyone stepping up today.
Pardon me while I elbow you for TP

One last thing I can bet you one million dollars any old person over 80 probably bought one or two Rolls to last them and they probably rationed them to help neighbour.
Meanwhile in Costco nude 35 year olds buying 5 to 6 bags of 40 rolls
Give me a break
Sacrifice!
Wake up Canada.
Thank you for allowing me to rant yet again!

#108 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 7:16 pm

#71 Gregor Samsa on 03.16.20 at 6:41 pm

I don’t take take joy in others misery, but pretty sure this same poster was one of the guys crowing about his massive gains from buying the dip on Friday….

——————-

And further, I’m pretty sure that was my doppelganger, but whatever…

#109 The Flying Foxtrot on 03.16.20 at 7:16 pm

Been working with the airlines for the past 15 years… It’ll go something like this: “We thank all the crews, engineers and ground staff who have worked so diligently in a crisis to get Canadians home safe. Thank you for all you have done. Here is your pink slip.” Hopefully the government has some good ideas up their sleeves. The airlines all employ people that are pushing in the top 5% of tax-givers. When airlines flop – it’s not a good thing for Canada. Stay happy, stay healthy everyone! Thanks for calming my nerves Garth.

#110 Stone on 03.16.20 at 7:19 pm

Life has a 100% death probability. – Garth

———

Since I do everything at 110%, that means I still have a chance of beating death.

I’ll let you all know when that happens. Wish me luck.

#111 Vancouver Brit on 03.16.20 at 7:19 pm

#88 MF on 03.16.20 at 6:36 pm

Be careful. The selling could continue for months. This is a threat that will not just go away, but be with us for good. We have to accept that will all be exposed to this virus at some point, like you were exposed to novel viruses as a kid and have forgotten about. People will have damage to their lungs. Others will die.
____________________________

Jesus, get a grip. “Will be with us for good”. Erm, no it won’t. Do you even look at the stats? China has had a total of 81,032 cases since this began. Of that, 67,910 have recovered and 3,217 have died. That means there are now less than 10,000 cases in all of China and this is quickly dropping. Give it a couple of weeks and it will be practically eradicated in China and most of Asia. Give it a few months and it’ll be gone from Europe and North America.

This is not going to be some earth shattering event. It is not going to be something that impacts everybody. The vast majority of people won’t be impacted whatsoever, except economically now.

The only thing that might change in the future is the world will be far better equipped to deal with these pandemics, as the response to this one has been a steep learning curve and not helped to contain things.

#112 Flanneur on 03.16.20 at 7:20 pm

Ok, what’s with all the people who thinking about investing now? What about last year before it went up 30%. Let’s get a loan. Now? What about 5 years ago. People are gonna loose their pants. Quick bucks are very hard to find. When I have 4 people who have never invested asking me if they would start now as before they weren’t interested ya gotta wonder. Either they are smarter than everyone else or this is becoming another herd decision that will hurt a lot more than a stubbed toe.

#113 G on 03.16.20 at 7:24 pm

Hi #97 9 months from now, guess what,

Or with the power still on, just watch movies, games, and texted friends. Divorce rates might spike for some if you can’t get out of the house.
If not worried to much about the future, or if it could effect…, maybe more babies.

#114 Stone on 03.16.20 at 7:25 pm

#106 The Flying Foxtrot on 03.16.20 at 7:16 pm
Been working with the airlines for the past 15 years… It’ll go something like this: “We thank all the crews, engineers and ground staff who have worked so diligently in a crisis to get Canadians home safe. Thank you for all you have done. Here is your pink slip.” Hopefully the government has some good ideas up their sleeves. The airlines all employ people that are pushing in the top 5% of tax-givers. When airlines flop – it’s not a good thing for Canada. Stay happy, stay healthy everyone! Thanks for calming my nerves Garth.

———

And the CEO sits safely in his office/bunker, continues to collect his outrageous pay and never even bothers to acknowledge your existence or know your name.

You have my sympathies. Job well done though.

#115 Flop... on 03.16.20 at 7:27 pm

Thor, stop munching on two day old birthday cake and secure the back gate of this blog.

The blog zombies are here again…

M45BC

#116 espressobob on 03.16.20 at 7:29 pm

A friend of mine was bawling today and as he puts it, It’s like watching all your wealth circling the drain. I reminded him not to panic, sit tight and even consider buying. The thing is he knows that’s the right course of action but can’t pull the trigger.

Typical I suppose but investing shows most what there made of.

A contrarian myself with a sadistic note. Enjoy others suffering as they dump their positions at the worst time. I’m buying and feel a bit guilty, stealing candy from the bears.

#117 aerozone on 03.16.20 at 7:29 pm

Is there a way to force the CBC to tell “THE TRUTH, THE WHOLE TRUTH AND NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH”?
Sorry Michael, Paul and the dwindling few intelligent,
rational people still working in a once great corp.

CBC…sad sad sad…

#118 Shawn Allen on 03.16.20 at 7:31 pm

Life has a 100% death probability. – Garth

That is an excellent and undeniable point.

But as a society we are no longer very accepting at all of early death. Probably 75 years ago people almost expected to lose at least one child and many had big broods. I have done research on my family tree where I saw documentation of one of my great uncles having to bury I think it was three children several years apart. In my grandfather’s family several of his siblings died very young. Even in my mother’s family several siblings died young, one of tuberculosis at age 18. Society coped with huge loss of life in the world wars. I guess we can cope again. But first we will indeed have a lot of panic.

They are gone to a better place was something people really believed. I doubt very many really believe it now and even if they do no one accepts people going to the better place any earlier than necessary.

Death is inevitable. But that does not mean we don’t fear it and that we don’t take precautions against it, trying to stave it off. Parents even aged ones greatly fear the death of a child.

If this virus is with us to stay and has a 5% or whatever death rate we will likely eventually get used to it and begin to resume normal life.

If it is destined to sweep over the population then at some point there will be little point to isolation. The survivors will presumably have immunity and no longer have to isolate.

Until then panic, recession, possible depression.

Please let the science solve this or isolation nip it in the bud so that our panic will look foolish in a few months.

#119 DON on 03.16.20 at 7:33 pm

In the mail today.

Two separate relator pamphlets (no copyright if I spell it wrong..right!)

#1 Time to Sell -Inventory is Low!
New Listings are in High Demand
Thinking of making a change?

#2 I will sell you home in 58 days or I’LL SELL IT FOR FREE*

*100% of my professional fees will be waived. Some charges like the co-operating brokerage fee may still apply. Contact for offer details. Picture on the other side of a new town house.

#120 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 7:35 pm

#110 Stone on 03.16.20 at 7:19 pm
Life has a 100% death probability. – Garth

———————–

Since I do everything at 110%, that means I still have a chance of beating death.

———————–

Haha

#121 Stress Test Change on 03.16.20 at 7:35 pm

Changes to the federal mortgage stress test, due to come into force April 6, have been put on hold indefinitely, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) has announced.

Have a nice day.

#122 Faron on 03.16.20 at 7:38 pm

Re: #84 Vancouver Brit on 03.16.20 at 6:28 pm

Curious of peoples thoughts on leveraging into this market? Unfortunately all of my cash is invested and I’m unable to invest any more without taking on an LOC of some sort.

—————————————–

Gawd no. This is a clear sign that there are still too many bulls in the market and that the market has further down to go.

1) There’s no guarantee it’s going to bounce back in the timeline you need it to for the interest, fees, your time etc to be outweighed by the gains
2) Regardless, you will be losing money to interest from the start.
3) Your loan payments will prevent you from saving up for a cash deposit into your account to purchase equities with.
4) You may invest wrong and not capture enough of the rebound to win your gambit.
5) You invest, watch three -5% days go by, panic and pull out 15%+ of your original loan poorer. Now you are paying interest on the lost dollars thus further compounding your loss.

The risk/reward is waaay off.

#123 Raging Ranter on 03.16.20 at 7:44 pm

Everything MF said. This recession and market crash – and we are in both right now whether we want to believe it or not – was a long time coming. The market tried to correct in Q4 2018, when it would have been much less traumatic, but the Fed chickened out and announced an end to it’s balance sheet reduction, then started cutting rates again. They kept the party going another 14 months, but it’s done now.

If not COVID, something else would have popped the bubble. When you spend 11 years inflating the biggest asset bubble in history, there’s gonna be a pin somewhere. If Mother Nature hadn’t provided one, then some man made event would have. For the next few months, we will need to allow the realization to sink in that central banks can’t keep markets afloat forever. It will be a rude awakening for so many.

#124 GB on 03.16.20 at 7:44 pm

Thank you Garth for posting and providing insight during these times.

Such a great public service (I’ve been reading your blood sine 2001).

My financial advisor figures the buying point will be when the Dow drops below 20K and the TSK hits around 10K.

Sound about right?

#125 Gb on 03.16.20 at 7:45 pm

Reading your blog….not blood :) geesh….

#126 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 7:51 pm

#107 Berkshire on 03.16.20 at 7:15 pm

Some rumour going around Berkshire is buying airlines namely air canada. That’s interesting.

———————–

Berkshire’s been buying airlines for years.

Will he buy Air Canada? Tough to say… I see online conjecture that Buffett might buy it since it’s way down…

I’d personally buy BRK before AC.

#127 Sheesh on 03.16.20 at 7:55 pm

#111 Vancouver Brit on 03.16.20 at 7:19 pm
Erm, no it won’t. Do you even look at the stats? China has had a total of 81,032 cases since this began. Of that, 67,910 have recovered and 3,217 have died. That means there are now less than 10,000 cases in all of China and this is quickly dropping.

Erm, did you notice the extreme measures China took to control the spread? Do you see that happening here?

#128 Paul on 03.16.20 at 7:58 pm

In Chicago, 381 people have been shot this year. That is 77 more than 2019.
Just sayin.

#129 sailedaway on 03.16.20 at 8:00 pm

#108 Sail Away

“And further, I’m pretty sure that was my doppelganger, but whatever…”

I ain’t Gregor, he ain’t me. He not my dopelgregor

I’m also a small business owner, not just specializing in being what the French call showers.

#130 Ed on 03.16.20 at 8:07 pm

Everything is shutting down the schools the malls the manufacturing facilities
But stock market aren’t …!!!
Don’t u think it should also get shut down temporarily but no no no they want you’re money your company
It’s designed to steal your wealth n hard earned money with the help of the technology.

#131 Lisa on 03.16.20 at 8:10 pm

Wow, lots of commenters prickly today. Go drink some scotch as advised here recently!

#132 SOMETHINGS UP on 03.16.20 at 8:14 pm

Good-One!

#133 oh bouy on 03.16.20 at 8:17 pm

@#112 Flanneur on 03.16.20 at 7:20 pm
Ok, what’s with all the people who thinking about investing now? What about last year before it went up 30%. Let’s get a loan. Now? What about 5 years ago. People are gonna loose their pants.
________________________________________

Hell, they may even lose their pants.
dark days.

#134 espressobob on 03.16.20 at 8:17 pm

On another topic being the foodservice industry well? Sat around earlier today with a couple of my clients that have played this game forever. All I can tell you is,to have a good sense of humour in the face of adversity. They do.

This is devastating for most coming on board during this so called crisis. What a croc.

Restaurants , Bars, and Cafes ain’t what they’re cracked up to be especially now.

#135 BS on 03.16.20 at 8:20 pm

#19 Zach on 03.16.20 at 4:48 pm

you have to concede that your advice isn’t always 100% correct. In the same way that you criticize some investors for selling into a storm, only to see a quick rebound, you deserve criticism for always insisting that NOW is the time to buy stocks. It isn’t. I know from reading, that so many of the sudden drops of the last few years were preceded the day before by you, telling people to buy NOW (stock are high, yes they will go higher!). You advised people to do their RRSPs and TFSAs first thing on January 2, 2020. Had they done that, they would’ve lost 30% (and maybe more). Fact is, you are quick to see bubbles in the housing market, but fail to see bubbles in the stock market.

If you bought a balanced portfolio in Jan 2019 you would still be up with dividends, and doing better than any GIC. I will bet those that bought a GIC in Jan 2020 will do worse when the GIC expires than if they bought a balanced portfolio in Jan 2020.

There is a difference between a black swan event and a bubble popping.

BTW hotdog, if you are so smart when is the best time to buy stocks?

#136 Utilities on 03.16.20 at 8:21 pm

Can someone explain to me why a defensive stock like Algonquin power, a utility is down and paying almost 6 percent dividend ?
I bought two years ago for growth and security and now this thing is down to $16. Am I missing something or is it total panic?
I understand selling but why something that is secure and paying a high yield.
I guess I don’t get it
Thanks

#137 CJ on 03.16.20 at 8:21 pm

Am I doing this wrong?

Everyone is talking about how much the markets are crashing, investments and down, everyone is broke or rushing to cash, gold viking hoards or Banditcoin™. My accounts are down, but nowhere near that amount because I’m 1) Not invested in single stocks, but broader ETFs 2) My portfolio contains the boring, safe stuff that Garth has lauded, for this exact purpose.

When all this has been happening, I have checked my accounts and have felt no great concern as my retirement is well off in the future and through learning here, I understand why this is temporary.

Know what I’m doing with my quarantine time? Spending time with my immediate family that I wouldn’t otherwise get to do. Breakfast with the kiddos, morning coffee with the wife, afternoon couch cuddles with the dogs. I’m sure everyone here has lovely people in their lives that would love to hear from you. Unfortunately, by the end of this, there is a chance some of us might be missing a few of them and will rue chances we had to connect.

Garth says it all the time.

Life is about balance. In all things.

#138 Terry on 03.16.20 at 8:23 pm

The virus will come and go and will be with us forever just like the regular flu but a little bit more deadly than the flu is. That’s not the real problem here. What the world will probably not recover from for quite possibly the rest of an average age persons lifetime is the now unfolding economic carnage of the “end of work”. Many businesses, factories, shops, dealers, restaurants, airlines, tourism etc…. will never recover or re-open. Massive bankruptcies loom very large on our horizon. Capital and credit destruction/disruption on this scale will take decades to heal from. Confidence collapse alone is enough to keep millions away from ever trusting anyone wearing a suit and tie or a power dress ever again. We are all still in shock. The breakdown takes days to weeks just like an accident takes seconds to occur. It’s the weeks and months of healing and therapy the accident victim goes through that changes everything. That’s what I’m saying here. We will never be living the way we were for the rest of our lifetimes. That’s how much damage is being done right now.

#139 jefferson on 03.16.20 at 8:27 pm

I work at Rogers, in the GTA…our technicians are still out there going into 8-10 residences per day…..even into senior care residences….I’m sitting at my desk right now in a room full of 60 people, and we sit at a different desk each day….I wish I was joking….oh our manager handed out wipes to everyone so don’t worry all is well….

Thanks Garth so much for your voice of reason this week….

#140 not 1st on 03.16.20 at 8:30 pm

For the first 2 months of 2020 there were;

69,602 deaths from common cold
140,584 from malaria
153,696 suicides
193,479 deaths by road accidents
240,950 people succumb to HIV
358,741 died from alcohol
716,798 smoking deaths
1,177,141 cancer fatalities

and

2360 corona virus deaths

This has conspiracy written all over it.

#141 crazyfox on 03.16.20 at 8:31 pm

Lots of good points Garth, with danger comes opportunity, not all sectors will get beat up. (I was wrong on oil, too soon. Oil could recover enough to get out at entry tomorrow though) However, even the walking dead diets with cans flying off the shelves at Trader Joes and Costco, will come to an end. Shoppers, exhausting their wallets and shelving space, will turn to personal earnings that may prove rocky and unreliable! Economies rely on movement and what I’m seeing is the opposite, at least for now so, like Garth says, we wait.

Is the reaction overblown somehow… are people missing something… that’s what I want to know. For example, no offense to the wrinklies out there, but they seem to be the only demographic that is dying. Hmmm. In Italy, fatalities for any age group less than 60 years is less than 1%. What we don’t know is that for the percentage of younger people that end up in ICU’s, is there permanent organ damage from this virus? We don’t know that yet. Are millennials and boomers interested in finding out the hard way? Volunteers anyone?

How will this virus perform in say, North America where more than 40% of adult Americans are obese (now 50% in African Americans), with 10% diabetes etc.? This is a virus that will be hard on people with compromised immune systems and lungs, hearts, livers and kidneys, it may not go over so well in America’s gen pop.

Is there an anti viral that is having excellent success that we don’t know about? Take for example Chloroquine (or hydroxyl version):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M

Is inter cellular Zinc combined with Chloroquine the reason why South Korea’s CFR is so low? How about diet, Vitamin D alone will reduce respiratory illness by 13% in large study groups. 13%! Forget about SK’s closed case stats for a moment (too small) and look at the percentage of mild cases, 99% mild, is SK testing so on spot that their early detection and treatment is turning the tide there? Do they have the mild version of the strain perhaps? Their systems are top notch. They are educated and PISA scores show it:

https://www.oecd.org/pisa/PISA-results_ENGLISH.png

What is SK doing that is keeping their active case count flat lined? Is it diet, success with old generic medicines, advanced public systems, early detection, a cel government GPS tracking app, widespread use of temp scanners, top notch detective chain of infection tracking, blind luck, weaker strain, what’s the reason to South Korea’s success, all of the above? It’s a no brainer, we look at the most successful models of virus containment and we implement it here and around the world. Economies are at stake, now is not the time for pride, its the time to go Asian and copy what works! Right?

Btw, we’ve yet to hear from the seers of the way, the tea leaf reading hippy chicks, the homeopaths, the healers, the “old ones”. The DOW dropped 3 K today, the carny barked “buy” message isn’t worth a fart in the wind, investor pride is tombstone, I’m listening. What’s that? It’s kind of faint, “jup… june… i…per… juniper? Ah, the root of the Juniper bush, I’m so Verklempt, I should have known :) Plenty of those around these parts, I’ll have to give it a go, a small pilot project for myself. A chance to get away from dirty grubby virus shedding Canadians sneezing all over themselves, going around touching everything, it could be fun!

#142 BS on 03.16.20 at 8:32 pm

#38 I’m stupid on 03.16.20 at 5:12 pm

Hi Garth I’m preparing to fire a torpedo into the market right now. I’m getting a 500k heloc in place (should be ready in 2 days) I’m going to fire it at Boeing, Disney, Exxon, royal Caribbean, And few others. What’s your opinion?

Why buy the companies that will take the biggest earnings hits? They are cheap for a reason. Some may cut dividends or go bankrupt. Like buying US financials in the in the 2008 downturn. It was a big mistake. Stick with the indexes. You get the dogs but also get those that will take little or no earnings hit but are dragged down with the market.

#143 N on 03.16.20 at 8:33 pm

Here we go again….

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/03/operational-details-bank-canada-purchase-canada-mortgage/

#144 MF on 03.16.20 at 8:34 pm

111 Vancouver Brit on 03.16.20 at 7:19 pm

Get a grip?

If you believe a thing out of China you are naive. They told us everything was under control back in December..until it wasn’t. Woops. I guess we have forgotten how a paranoid dictatorship works.

Maybe if you hold your hands over your ears, close your eyes, and then yell “lalala” really loud the news will get better too?

Psst: corona viruses have been around you your whole life. This one is novel though. Meaning you have no protection. Its not going anywhere.

MF

#145 crazyfox on 03.16.20 at 8:34 pm

Now about that vaccine thingy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

I count 5 Serotypes. 2 from Alpha (Human Coronavirus 229E & NL63 as mothers can pass antibodies on to infants), 3 from Beta (1 from lineage A and 2 Serotypes from lineage B under the assumption that both strains of COVID-19 have different Serotypes) A working vaccine that gets past phase 3, may have to work with all Serotypes due to the risks of re-infection should Corona be partial to antigenic sin):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin

That’s not to say a vaccine can’t be done, with the money and global effort spent on this sucker, we’ll get one regardless of wrinkles but it may not be a cakewalk. This virus has already mutated once and it could do so again setting back a vaccine in Phase 2 or 3 if it has to account, so researchers/investors should be prepared for surprises.

Vaccines will also have to account for genetic drift. Over time, antigens get disguised by mutations disrupting white blood cell antibodies from recognizing them, explaining why flu shots fade after 6 months and need a reboot every winter. A working vaccine will only last as long as the Serotype with the highest rate of genetic drift will allow.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_drift

A working vaccine is likely a year away. That’s an eternity in the markets with little to chew on other than, say, what’s right in front of us.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-and-launches-massive-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html

#146 JohnAB on 03.16.20 at 8:36 pm

So if we speak about RE in Toronto, we’ll see a slight decline (maybe) this spring, but a certain spike in prices this autumn? How’s that making the Toronto RE not the best investment ever?

#147 Nonplused on 03.16.20 at 8:36 pm

Well, I went to Costco today mostly because we needed milk and pasta and a few other items. I would have grabbed a bag of toilet paper if there was any but there was none. Here are my observations.

I went in the afternoon and the store was relatively quiet. Sort of like a lake after a storm. There was a strange silence. There were no major lineups.

The only paper product available was shop towels. No toilet paper, no paper towels (other than shop), no napkins, and no Kleenex. There was a couple of pallets of makeup remover wipes but nobody was taking an interest in those. I bought one because I figure if you can wipe your face with it you can wipe your butt with it, and my wife uses them anyway. That’s thinking outside the box, my friends. Just don’t flush them.

No pasta or hand sanitizer either. But other than that the store was well stocked. Lots of pasta sauce for example but no pasta. Why people are buying up all the pasta but not the yummy sauce to put on it I can’t understand. When I eat pasta, it is to deliver the sauce to my mouth. Sort of how lettuce is only useful to deliver the dressing.

Bottled water was in good supply, as were most other items that can substitute like “Bubly” and Gatorade.

There were pallets of big bags of sugar and flour all over the store. Never seen that before. Some people were buying them but not most.

About half the Asians in the store had some sort of mask. Don’t know where they got them I certainly didn’t see them on sale. And no I am not trying to be racist, there really was a very clear pattern.

Went over to the tire department to buy some cigars (which is strangely where they keep the smokes now) and chatted up the lady running the till. Indeed they had got 10 pallets of toilet paper that morning but it was sold out within 10 minutes. She said there was a lineup all the way around the store before the doors opened and everyone went straight for the toilet paper. I guess that’s why it wasn’t busy in the afternoon.

To be clear, there was no shortage of food or drink product other than pasta. Want bagels? No problem. Doritos? Tortilla shells? Canned foods? Bread? Ground beef? No problem. Even the medical and vitamins were well stocked.

Stopped at the Superstore liquor store and nothing was amiss there. Have to admit I did a bit of stock-piling because if we go full quarantine you need that stuff. Looked like they were going to have a sale soon because they had the wine stacked up, but no prices yet. Might have to go back.

On the way home I found gas at $0.773 a liter so I topped up. Who would have thought we would ever see that again.

Got the mail, and my wife had some photography done on her car. So even in crisis some things never change.

Surreal.

#148 Sold Out on 03.16.20 at 8:39 pm

I suspect the people calling loudly for a complete US border shutdown are the same ones hoarding all the TP.

Where do they think TP, and most of our food, comes from?

#149 Faron on 03.16.20 at 8:50 pm

#136 Utilities on 03.16.20 at 8:21 pm

Can someone explain to me why a defensive stock like Algonquin power, a utility is down and paying almost 6 percent dividend ?

——————————————————

Don’t forget that a stock’s dividend is not guaranteed in any way. The yield against previous earnings will rise when the price falls, but if a company struggles, goes through some negative earnings quarters and eats into its cash, then they might just cut their dividend rather than take on more debt.

A hypothetical:

You buy algonquin expecting 6%

Heavy industry in Ontario takes a huge hit from the economic downturn so suddenly algonquin is selling power on a grid with way less demand thus lower prices. They are no longer breaking even on the costs of production. But the price dropped so the dividend is up even more.

If this continues, eventually whoever it is that decides what happens to the dividend decides that a good option to trim their losses is to trim the dividend. Say they slash it in half to start.

Stock price tanks because of the dividend news to half the value you bought it at. Yield on your trading app always says a dividend of 6% or more and still does, but now you are actually receiving 3% on your original investment and the capital value of that investment is 50% down plus whatever small percentage the dividend has paid.

#150 will on 03.16.20 at 8:59 pm

Suggested reading for those hunkering down with their toilet paper:

http://www.bing.com/search?q=the Decameron&PC=RIMBINGD&A=results

#151 It is serious on 03.16.20 at 9:00 pm

FYI mortality rate for COVID is 3.4%. That means 1 in 30 will die, versus 1 in 1000 for the flu. If you are older than 50 or love someone that is physically vulnerable this is not something to scoff at. I see posters here dismissive of ‘98%’ survival rates and all is fine mentality. Give your heads a shake.

If 3.4% croak, why are 100% hoarding toilet paper? Everybody dies. Even old people, apparently (like me). The damage here is economic, not medical. – Garth

#152 Mel on 03.16.20 at 9:07 pm

My elderly neighbour called me today because she could not find any TP anywhere and asked me to help her out, after looking and calling around found some at Canadian tire. Picked up a package of 14 rolls and checked out ( cost $22.59) I was floored but you cannot blame the front line workers, she was embarrassed.

#153 Blackdog on 03.16.20 at 9:08 pm

@#80 G, Thanks. Too many don’t seem to get why this is a big deal. We want to flatten that curve as much as possible, so more people will have the medical care available to them when they need it.

#154 akashic record on 03.16.20 at 9:12 pm

First, does anyone really, seriously, truly believe that in a global effort modern science will fail to produce a vaccine? Not me. It’s a done deal. Just need time.

Probably not a done deal.

For economic reason: once the horror is gone, the sudden interest to actually complete the development of the vaccine is also over. As time goes by, funding dries up, researches moves to other projects.

At least this is what happened with all the scary new infectious diseases, you can remember.

#155 Sail Away on 03.16.20 at 9:13 pm

#129 sailedaway on 03.16.20 at 8:00 pm

I’m also a small business owner, not just specializing in being what the French call showers.

—————————

I see. And employer as well?

If so, please… share this innovative strategy that allows one to pay $160k in salary per month when contracts are put on hold.

I’m all ears. If it’s not a good solution, you may be a french shower as well.

#156 Abolitionist on 03.16.20 at 9:20 pm

Does anyone remember the bank bail-in legislation that was passed in the last couple years?

After hyper inflation, currency drop and a potential bail-in, there’s got to be some silver lining to Canadians in all of this!

#157 Reality is stark on 03.16.20 at 9:28 pm

As my divorce lawyer friend likes to say “Every cloud has a silver lining”.
This isn’t the painful part yet. In this world of immediate satisfaction and only child entitled narcissists hard times are not part of the proposition.
When D-Day comes don’t take it personally. They will not accept a change in their lifestyle. You will still be expected to provide as unrealistic as it may seem.
Reality is stark.

#158 Ronaldo on 03.16.20 at 9:30 pm

WWW=World Wide Weirdness

Had to take my wife for a ride in the country today to get her away from BNN. While waiting for oil change on the car we walked over to the big box mall. Parking lot almost void of cars. Dollar store had a couple people and Cdn. Tire same. Contrary to what my friend back home emailed me saying that parking lots and shopping centers and Costco packed with cars. What a difference between our city and the town 40 minutes down the hiway. Getting back home we stopped by a janitorial store to pick up a mop only to find that they could not serve us, only commercial clients. Store was void of customers. Never a problem in the past. I see that the market gained back 500 of the 1800 points lost this morning. I suspect it will gain another 500 tomorrow. Now to check and see if my two stink bids were successful.

#159 OK, Doomer on 03.16.20 at 9:38 pm

#128 Paul on 03.16.20 at 7:58 pm
In Chicago, 381 people have been shot this year. That is 77 more than 2019.
Just sayin.
——-

More people were shot in Chicago on the weekend in fights about toilet paper than died from Corona virus.

Not saying this is true, but the fact that people will google it to see if it’s true tells you all you need to know about media hype.

#160 Re-Cowtown on 03.16.20 at 9:41 pm

#136 Utilities on 03.16.20 at 8:21 pm
Can someone explain to me why a defensive stock like Algonquin power, a utility is down and paying almost 6 percent dividend ?
I bought two years ago for growth and security and now this thing is down to $16. Am I missing something or is it total panic?
I understand selling but why something that is secure and paying a high yield.
I guess I don’t get it
Thanks

____________________________________

Total Panic. IPL is paying 15% divident on a P/E of 8.6. Fill ‘er up!!!

#161 NoName on 03.16.20 at 9:43 pm

i dont understand why would they close store that sells disinfectant…

https://patch.com/pennsylvania/across-pa/pa-state-wine-liquor-stores-close-amid-coronavirus-outbreak

#162 DON on 03.16.20 at 9:48 pm

“Ponder this:

The company of the world’s best investor is currently 23% below its 52-week high and he is sitting on $128B in cash while the investing world crumbles to new lows around him.

Hmmm… anybody think Berkshire might be a good investment? Hmmm…”
***********

Good Point, gave me some research to do.

Though, I wonder why he was/is sitting on the side line?

Oil and Virus, World Trade War just the catalysts?

As for leadership…the US Fed(s) seemingly panicked, didn’t expect that one on Sunday. Why did they do this?

Did they think the spooked investors would see a buying opportunity?

Now the expectation seems to be that things will return to normal by end of 2020. But few have talked about all the variables in the same analysis (aside from Garth).

As for TP:

Do people know toilet paper is made in Canada most likely in New West BC, right in the heart of the lower mainland?

Van Isle:
People in retirement towns lining up for gas now! Why not wait till gas falls a bit (even a couple of cents). In same town a young women with a baby was robbed of a package of toilet paper by an older person.

Judging by how people our reacting in extremes…can you imagine an earth quake etc? Not fear mongering, but for F Sake people. At this point it would be better to fear stupid than the virus. I am looking at guns and ammo ETFs.

Is this the Big Reset in mentality? Dog help us. oh buy the way the next rush will be for pet foods and garden products…

Friend’s work just laid operations staff till June.

I am more worried about the impact of job losses even temporary ones and As I remember well in the corporate world a crisis can be used to shed salaries.

#163 will on 03.16.20 at 9:57 pm

Sorry Garth that link doesn’t seem to work. My recommended reading for those hunkering down with their toilet paper is Boccaccio’s “The Decameron”. A group of people isolate themselves during the plague in the 14th century and tell stories to bide their time as the plague passes.

#164 Doug t on 03.16.20 at 10:07 pm

History repeats itself – but it will be interesting to look back on this event and the destruction it has taken economically, politically and mentally – right now it feels like a massive over the top knee jerk reaction – we shall see – one thing for sure is when something “really bad” confronts us we are SCREWED

#165 Diversified in Oakville on 03.16.20 at 10:11 pm

#38 I’m stupid
Your name says it all with you whack job idea of stock picking.
Put your money in a S&P ETF, or better yet a balanced and diversified portfolio.

#166 Out Of Work CEO, Will Travel on 03.16.20 at 10:13 pm

Skechers Outlet in Tucson, AZ was busy selling to the comfy shoe set. I picked up two pairs for under $40. This will never happen again in my lifetime. At Bealls, I picked up a $60 golf shirt for $9.99 and a $80 jacket for $9.99. Safeway gave us a half pound of cheese just for buying a chicken wrap. Gas is heading back to $2.00 a gallon. President Trump has a point about hoarding..it’s wrong.

#167 DrC on 03.16.20 at 10:15 pm

But if we get a ton of money into the market + lowest possible interest rates + the good-for-nothing stress test, wouldn’t that pump up the GTA’s real estate prices again in the fall? I’m looking at housesigma and can see houses being sold like.. toilet paper in Costco! No, really, I still don’t understand how can a house not be one of the best investments ever. There are only so many houses and the money is printed non-stop. Why would ever the prices here go down or stagnate for more than a year-or-two?

#168 sailedaway on 03.16.20 at 10:42 pm

#155 Sail Away on 03.16.20 at 9:13 pm

Yes, employer also. They are no winners in this just pain, no gain. For everybody.

Have you thought about selling some stock to make payroll?

Thought about making some homemade pie?
Humble is the flavor of the day.

Have a good evening y’all

#169 WUL on 03.16.20 at 10:43 pm

We ain’t seen nuthin yet.

#170 willinSC on 03.16.20 at 10:43 pm

thanks Garth for all you do and the sensible approach.
Yy the way between 110 Stone, beating the odds and 116 Expressbob stealing from bears. I just fell off my chair laughing. lighten up everyone just do the best you can!

#171 DON on 03.16.20 at 10:44 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/humility-landing-on-street-pros-who-thought-they-d-seen-it-all

Down 10% one day, up 9% the next, a 12% crash the next with halts going off everywhere. Investors are at a total loss.
It’s been a lesson in humility. No historical comparison works, no model, no chart of valuations or profits. The coronavirus shuts down more cities, countries and businesses each day, you think you’ve seen the worst, then the Dow tacks on a 3,000-point plunge. Who knows what’s next?
“We’re not medical professionals,” said Dave Lafferty, chief market strategist at Natixis Investment Managers, which manages over $1 trillion. “Because we can’t model the length or severity, we can’t model the economic impact. And because we can’t model the economic impact, we also can’t model earnings and PE ratios.”
Feeling this helpless is new for the normally confident investors and traders of Wall Street. In a little over three weeks, the S&P 500 has plunged almost 30%. The last time it moved that much in a calendar year was in 2008.
Research shops are re-calibrating forecasts only to re-work them again, a few days later. At the end of February, strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projected zero profit growth for U.S. companies. Last week, they said earnings will drop at least 12% in each of the next two quarters. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered their profit expectations, and Jonathan Golub at Credit Suisse Group AG slashed his year-end S&P target.
Tony Dwyer at Canaccord Genuity LLC gave up altogether, suspending his year-end projection for the S&P. The firm’s chief market strategist said coming up with a forecast has become impossible, not just because of the economic shutdown but also because the positive monetary and fiscal responses are just as historic.

“The uncertainty leads to high skepticism and whatever forecasts we make are simply best guesses and also tend to rely on historical comparisons,” CFRA Research’s Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall, said by phone. “History is a great guide, but it’s never gospel.”
Some took comfort in cheaper valuations. Others have no idea how to value equities in a world of zero rates. Natixis’s Lafferty says it leaves investors unable to judge the value of future profits. Looking at the Fed Model, for instance, a method that compares corporate profits to bond yields, would imply a price-earnings ratio of infinity.
“Clearly we reach a point where lower and lower interest rates and lower overnight rates do not justify infinitely high PEs,” he said. “We’ve hit that point.”

Paul Nolte, a portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago, has been in the business since 1986. To him, the coronavirus outbreak “feels like nothing else.” The closest he sees as a comparison is World War II, a period when there were restrictions on food and gas. Except governments are imposing restrictions on movement right now. “We’ve never been asked to stay in place,” which could have a serious economic impact, he said by phone.
At Sundial Capital Research, Jason Goepfert admits it might be worth throwing out historical comparisons altogether.
“There’s really nothing that investors have faced that can equate to not only the social, fiscal, and monetary developments over the past week, but also the price and selling intensity,” Goepfert, the president of Sundial, wrote to clients. “These are uncharted waters.”

#172 willinSC on 03.16.20 at 10:44 pm

that should be “by the way”

#173 TurnerNation on 03.16.20 at 10:46 pm

Plot twist. China is re-opening. Kanada is closing.
They will scoop us up on the cheap. Own Canada
I’d never heard of Huiwei before the T2 media stunt. Free advertising. The first salvo?

Self inflicted fire sale:
The KEG, Cineplex, Canada Goose all conincidentially announce two-week closures tonight. Many more I am sure.
What will be going on behind the scenes? UBI for all? What is T2-UN cooking up. Nationalized kandos for affected workers? Corporate bailouts?
The BANKS will scoop up defaulted homes just like the old days. The game never changes….

#174 Blackdog on 03.16.20 at 10:50 pm

Daniel Horn is a physician at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, where he is helping lead a team charged with planning for the influx of coronavirus patients. His hospital is one of the best in the world, with enviable resources and a world-leading assemblage of talent. Yet Horn has been carrying an acute sense of dread about the coming onslaught that his institution, and others in the area, will soon face….

Franklin Foer: How close are we to zero hour? If we don’t do extreme social distancing in the next day or two, what do you think Boston hospitals are going to start to see?

Daniel Horn: What we’ll start to see are primary-care practices jammed up with calls, because calls with worried patients take a really long time. Then the really worried, scared patient that doesn’t get through will unnecessarily go to the emergency department, which is already full. That clearly will create a major strain on emergency-department management systems.

And then the hospital fills with older patients with coronavirus with low oxygen levels that need oxygen support and IV fluids and help with nutrition. Suddenly we have multiple floors of those patients filling up beds. And then 15 percent of them begin to crash and develop acute respiratory distress requiring mechanical ventilation to save their life—all at the same time—and then we don’t have enough ICU beds and mechanical ventilators to manage the patients that are all crashing at the same time. We will be [grappling with] the types of ethical dilemmas that we really only see in wartime in this country.

We have plans for that. But we don’t want to have to have plans for that. The only way we stop that situation from developing, the only clear way, is that our entire society sort of voluntarily commits—that’s the individual, the corporation, the public institution, town leadership, state leadership, and federal leadership—commit to slowing that process down so that we don’t have all of those patients beginning to crash the ICU beds at the same time.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/one-doctor-prepares-coronavirus/608068/

#175 The Real Mark on 03.16.20 at 10:55 pm

“#167 DrC on 03.16.20 at 10:15 pm
But if we get a ton of money into the market + lowest possible interest rates + the good-for-nothing stress test, wouldn’t that pump up the GTA’s real estate prices again in the fall? “

Nope. Bond holders will price default risk into the bonds, and its pretty clear that this event is the last hurrah of the low interest rate era. There will be a litany of government spending and regulations that require industry to build overcapacity across the entire spectrum of supply, to protect against this debacle.

Besides, per capita real estate has never been greater per Canadian. Household and per capita debt has never been greater. Balance sheet exposure to housing has never been greater, especially if you mark the stock market to current prices. Ownership percentages are at record highs. And the banking sector, which has been acting as a sort of feedback loop into the GTA economy itself will cease to do so to anywhere near such an extent, which creates demand problems for GTA real estate.

And last but not least, the landlord families, who have been the dominant players in driving up the bubble, with their 20-30 houses a piece all bought on credit will probably go bankrupt after basically burning through their equity over the past 5-7 years of price stagnation in the GTA/GVR. The lenders will be taking back those properties and selling them. Foreclosure moratoriums will almost certainly apply to principal residences for a considerable period, but I can’t see any justification for a moratorium on foreclosing on investment real estate.

#176 Herb on 03.16.20 at 10:55 pm

#135 BS,

sorry, but reality moves me to call BS.

My balanced and diversified portfolio on January 1, 2019 was worth x. I made no withdrawals and left dividends in the portfolio as cash. To-day, it is worth x-5.71%. A GIC, or even a no-interest checking account would, have done better, but to date I made 22.2% in eight years.

#177 Blackdog on 03.16.20 at 10:56 pm

Daniel Horn: “Aside from not overwhelming our emergency rooms and ICUs, the main reason for comprehensive social isolation right now is because if you expose a health-care worker to the coronavirus and that becomes a documented exposure, they will not be able to work for 14 days. And if they are not able to work for 14 days, then we will not have a health-care workforce to take care of you. “

#178 Steven Rowlandson on 03.16.20 at 10:58 pm

The real problem is not restricted border traffic but restricted private sector and public services over a health threat that is relatively rare. I have not yet met anyone who might have the corona virus. What does come to mind though is that the powers that be have found and are exploiting an opportunity to bugger investors, inconvenience consumers, small businesses and disadvantaged people and find an excuse to do some thing rash if not unethical about their debt and short positions. Either to make them bigger or default with fighting a disease as the excuse.

#179 TurnerNation on 03.16.20 at 10:59 pm

GTA rents, prop taxes too high. Small business struggling
Expect empty storefronts and no sense of community.
This shut down could be on purpose. The big dogs will get bigger.
Remaining will be AAPL, UBER, GOOG, SBUX, NFLX, AMZN – everyone at home plugged in listing to the prop. Easy pickings. Well done elite rulers you’ve destroyed the family and now communities.
“Education” or what’s left of it also will go online.
Plugged in 18 hours of the day, radiation beaming. Pop will drop.

#180 Earlybird on 03.16.20 at 11:13 pm

Severe economic damage in AB if oil prices dont shape up. How does high household debt play into the consumption rally we are hoping for…remembering that people are $200 away from disaster….

#181 TurnerNation on 03.16.20 at 11:18 pm

^All the shuttered small busineses and car dealerships? Will be turned into Kandos to fit 100 million people.
Look at the bankers and financers running this movement. I told y’all there’s a plan + timeline. Takes a bit to come into focus. More valuable then oil, little digging required: city land

https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/team/

Century Initiative
The Century Initiative is focused on responsibly and thoughtfully growing the population of Canada to 100 million by 2100.

#182 Darren on 03.16.20 at 11:18 pm

#146 So if we speak about RE in Toronto, we’ll see a slight decline (maybe) this spring, but a certain spike in prices this autumn? How’s that making the Toronto RE not the best investment ever?
—————————————-
You keep telling yourself that.

#183 fishman on 03.16.20 at 11:19 pm

Three days ago my buddy phoned from California. On his way up & had just started sneezing with a little runny nose. Maybe allergy. the last 30 hours he drove straight thru with stops every 5 hours for a rest cause he’s sick. This ain’t no allergy. Its flu like & he’s trying to make it home. Test down there is $3000 & then a couple return trips into emergency etc. your looking at $13,000 U.S.
He hits the border this morning. Dozens maybe a hundred or more border guards all over the place. Besides everything else their stopping & checking people going north about two hundred yards from the border. Nobody ever seen that. And saying stupid things. Like “I remember you”. What bullsh*t. This is the Peace Arch crossing at Bellingham. There’s millions of people crossing there every year. Anyways they let him go & one line open & he’s the only car. I kid you not, 9:00 o’clock monday morning.
He’s isolated himself & none of us are going near him thats for sure. I’ll keep you bloggies updated on how his testing protocol goes.

#184 SomeVanDude on 03.16.20 at 11:30 pm

#50 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.16.20 at 5:26 pm
Typo? 93% recover? More like 98%, and that’s with most mild cases not reported which raises the fatality rate.

Much ado about nothing. That said, why are most governments making such a big show out of it?

Enquiring minds wanna know.

—————————————————

Hi Garth (thanks for all the advice).  Long time lurker, first time poster here.
I felt obliged to reply to Bytor The Snow Dog’s comment as I have heard this opinion oft quoted recently.  In a fatalistic way, yes a bunch of us are going to get sick, most will recover, a small percentage will not.
The key to the current measures like social distancing are about “flattening the curve” of the impact on our fairly fragile healthcare systems:
https://www.wired.com/story/whats-social-distancing-flattening-curve-covid-19-questions/

As can be seen in a country where COVID-19 has decimated the healthcare system, doctor’s in Italy now have guidelines around who receives critical care and sadly who will not:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/
As an example, if you are in a car accident and require an intensive care bed, but your “score” is not high enough, you will be left to die.  This is the point.  It is not just about COVID-19.  This is about reducing needless deaths.

I’ll leave you with this well researched article that I hope you find the time to digest to better understand why controlling pandemics is so important:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

If you want to learn more, I suggest you also read about countries like Singapore that went through SARS/H1N1 and how they have dealt more effectively with COVID-19:
https://www.wired.com/story/singapore-was-ready-for-covid-19-other-countries-take-note/

Garth, I completely agree with your other economic concerns.

Stay safe.

#185 Lambchop on 03.16.20 at 11:34 pm

#140 not 1st on 03.16.20 at 8:30 pm
For the first 2 months of 2020 there were;

69,602 deaths from common cold
140,584 from malaria
153,696 suicides
193,479 deaths by road accidents
240,950 people succumb to HIV
358,741 died from alcohol
716,798 smoking deaths
1,177,141 cancer fatalities

and

2360 corona virus deaths

This has conspiracy written all over it.

_____________________

This just bears repeating.

#186 AACI Homedog on 03.16.20 at 11:43 pm

Baby boom in 9 months…

#187 Ronaldo on 03.16.20 at 11:50 pm

#73 AB

Would you say this is a good time to break the fixed rate mortgage and switch to a variable?
———————————————————
You will find your answer in this report.

https://stevesaretsky.com/

#188 G on 03.16.20 at 11:53 pm

FYI
Important French announcement. (Regarding drugs not to take if you have COVID19.)
Dr. John Campbell March 16 9min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuWo5lmWuZI

#189 Ronaldo on 03.16.20 at 11:55 pm

#76 Julie K. on 03.16.20 at 6:17 pm
Talking about business….

Prior to immigrating to Canada in the late 60’s, my dear Macedonian husband and his family used nothing but ripped up squares of newspaper impaled on a single nail inside their outhouse.

Nary a complaint.

Peace.
———————————————————-
We used the Eatons catalogue. Just rip out a page and work the page in you hands till it softened up. The wrinklier the better. Gave you something to do while staring at the the door.

#190 BS on 03.16.20 at 11:59 pm

Chloroquine may be the answer to at least mitigate this pandemic.

“Use of chloroquine (tablets) is showing favourable outcomes in humans infected with Coronavirus including faster time to recovery and shorter hospital stay.

“US CDC research shows that chloroquine also has strong potential as a prophylactic (preventative) measure against coronavirus in the lab, while we wait for a vaccine to be developed. “Chloroquine is an inexpensive, globally available drug that has been in widespread human use since 1945 against malaria, autoimmune and various other conditions.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1256100/Coronavirus-cure-Elon-Musk-COVID19-cure-chloroquine-latest-coronavirus-news

#191 Prairieboy43 on 03.17.20 at 12:00 am

Full Steam Ahead……
PB43

#192 Sail Away on 03.17.20 at 12:05 am

#17 Sold Out on 03.16.20 at 4:46 pm
#3 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 4:39 pm

Well, we’ve put management on 1/2 salary…

————————-

You do put a big target on yourself, but I certainly don’t wish ill on you personally, your business or its employees. No more snotty comments from me. Pax.

There will be plenty of misery to go around.

————————-

Yep. Truce sounds good to me.

#193 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.17.20 at 12:07 am

#87 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 6:33 pm
Ponder this:

The company of the world’s best investor is currently 23% below its 52-week high and he is sitting on $128B in cash while the investing world crumbles to new lows around him.
————–
Time to confiscate all this cash and put it in Trust for all the poor smucks who have been sideswept by this virus.

#194 Genesis II on 03.17.20 at 12:08 am

It was mentioned here that the Feds will pay my rent with the announcement of stimulus spending a couple days ago. Is this true?
And how do I apply?

#195 the Jaguar on 03.17.20 at 12:17 am

Mercy. What’s this all about, Garth?

#37 NorthOf49 on 03.16.20 at 5:11 pm
‘ It wasn’t that long ago that you were flogging survival gear and generators on your alt site. ‘

Was there a period of your life where you went “Rambo”? Full disclosure, please…..lol

#196 Sleepless in Hamillton on 03.17.20 at 12:18 am

Man oh man. In Garth I Trust. (Gulp) Even after being a card-carrying member of this pathetic blog for a number of of years and heeding the advice of the aforementioned author, these are stressful times. From sticking with manageable rental housing (including renting and not owning items that depreciate) instead of buying an illiquid single asset to investing in a TFSA with a 60/40 ETF portfolio and avoiding overpriced mutual funds with [email protected], I’ve pretty much stuck to the Turner playbook. Still, watching my gig-economy income suffer for who-knows-how-long and my investments plunge 8-20% in the blink of an eye is causing some serious anxiety in my household. Not to mention this pesky pandemic that has the world currently swallowing a nightmare pill.

I certainly needed the hopeful financial reassurance and soothing provided by the end of this blog: Autumn can’t come soon enough. .

#197 Sail Away on 03.17.20 at 12:21 am

#60 Barb on 03.16.20 at 5:41 pm

Haven’t a clue how to make bread.
Heard it takes a bag of flour.
And other stuff.

——————————

When it’s belly to backbone time:

Put flour in a container, add a dash of salt and mix with just enough water to create a sticky glop.

Wrap it around a stick. Cook over an open fire like a hot dog until done.

You’re now a bannock expert.

#198 Piet on 03.17.20 at 12:34 am

@ #88 MF on 03.16.20 at 6:36 pm

“What we are witnessing is pivotal. We will probably see a shift in the way people work, socialize, travel, behave etc. Geo politics could change. Demographics. Institutions, policy etc.”

——————–

Good. It’s high time we learned a few lessons about how to survive in a world that is more crowded than ever.

#199 AlphaCentaur on 03.17.20 at 12:38 am

“Raw panic at a disease from which 93% recover and 80% have mild symptoms. Social rebuke for businesses that just want to stay open. And try to survive.”

That is a mind-boggling paragraph. Would it kill you to read something that isn’t a script for your own blog post…

Also:

“Never has this blog told people to buy stocks.”

Your commentator is clearly not targeting the distinction between ETFs and individual stocks.

#200 SoggyShorts on 03.17.20 at 12:45 am

#270 Lost…but not leased on 03.16.20 at 4:15 pm
#262 not 1st on 03.16.20 at 2:44 pm
#256 Lost…but not leased on 03.16.20 at 2:13 pm.

This whole coronavirus SCAM is also unravelling as we speak.

Just saw on CBC that UK will fine/imprison people who refuse tests and quarantine…this would logically seguay into mandatory vaccines.

” CUI BONO
********
This is would be good, no? I mean that’s how vaccines work-herd immunity.
Or are you actually against them?

#201 SoggyShorts on 03.17.20 at 12:51 am

#47 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.16.20 at 5:23 pm

Corona vaccine? I ain’t taking one. My body, my choice. The last vaccine I got (32 years ago) ruined my intestines. Also, there hasn’t been any new cure for any disease in over 50 years.

*********
Ok, your choice, but I think it would also be fair for you to be on a list like sex offenders are and all businesses and public spaces should have the freedom to refuse service and entry.

No one wants to be around someone who can incubate and mutate the virus rendering the vaccine useless endangering all of mankind.

#202 Steve-O! on 03.17.20 at 1:12 am

A new approach to Covid-19:
Quarantine high-risk people in group settings (5%…?)
Let all the low risk people get Covid and increase herd immunity.
In turn, we all support the over-all system as the most vulnerable await options like vaccines and anti-virals.
Many of the most vulnerable are already in group home environments.

#203 Price Gouger on 03.17.20 at 1:15 am

The reality of the matter is that Costco should be raising prices on toilet paper to reflect market demand. That way people wouldn’t be loading up the cart and hording it. Sure, that would mean that those who have less money would have to also pay more. But at least it would be available. Market forces always work better than government forces. By keeping the toilet paper cheap in a really inexplicable run on it, it creates a “first come first serve” mentality that should not exists. There is plenty of toilet paper. Make the hoarders pay more. Maybe that will give them cause to stop this nonsense. Here’s what I say the pricing should be. Toilet paper regular price limit 1 per customer. For every extra package double the price. That way you can get it if you want it, but you have to think about it before you buy 8 packs you won’t use and think you might sell on eBay for a profit.

#204 Fortune500 on 03.17.20 at 1:52 am

#36 Faron, that was a great post and synopsis.

I have a question for everyone saying that the bubble has popped and will not rise again for a very long time because of what the Fed did with interest rates, or the debt levels. . . Where do people go with their money?

In previous crash situations it made sense to go into bonds. But they pay nothing. History changed when we did this experiment, and it took away previous alternatives too. What about real estate? With the low interest rates, getting a real return stinks for cash-flow investors. And then people say go to Bitcoin. Look at the correlation? There isn’t any.

Unfortunately, if you want to have a hope in hell of beating inflation in the long run, equities are really our ONLY option.

Please explain how I am wrong? And then tell me where I should be investing instead to beat inflation and grow my money? Unless you think the world is over.

#205 Breathe Easy on 03.17.20 at 1:53 am

Most people are not understanding the significance of this pandemic and the havoc it is wreaking on us.

It is not the individual personal risk that is driving all the public health measures that are being implemented in countries like Canada. That is, 80% of people will experience a mild illness. The problem is that the 20% that are severe will require hospital care (of which 5% will require intensive care). Not really a big problem, right? But it is if it ALL HAPPENS AT ONCE. If we did nothing, then the healthcare system would be overwhelmed, as it is in Italy. No system is equipped for that many people requiring care all at once.

Now that the cat is out of the bag and there is community spread, containment is no longer possible. What is happening now is mitigation – trying to ‘flatten the curve’ of the peak of infections so that we are not overwhelmed. A consequence of this is that we are going to see this pandemic extended in time, i.e. it was a few months in China, it may be many more months in Canada. The US is a major problem, because they have botched the response from the beginning, and their health system may be devastated by this. Its important to note that for every known/confirmed case, there are likely hundreds or even thousands of unknown cases out there right now.

As I am a health expert, not a financial one, I can see the impacts on our medical system very clearly. The economic impacts are very unclear at the moment. The problem is that the public health measures are scary, so people are panicking as if the virus intends to kill many more than it actually will. This seems to magnify the economic impacts.

The measures we are taking right now are good, but to really minimize the impacts would require a shut down like China implemented – we wouldn’t do this at gunpoint as they did, but would have to be much more draconian than we have been. They had 1800 teams of 5 people following and contact tracing every single case! Our public health system has nowhere near those kinds of resources.

Once this is all over, things will recover, I think, but this will take many months, if not a year or more. And by the way, no vaccine will stop this virus at this point – at least a year till something is actually developed, and who knows how effective it will be. The pain from my retirement portfolio drop will be palpable for a long time…

#206 Attrition on 03.17.20 at 2:14 am

#79 Sail away on 03.16.20 at 6:23 pm

Finally! A lifetime of scrimping, saving and investing, and now we’re set for retirement.

Let’s see… travel, grandkids, gardening… so many things to do. Where to start??

Okay, here we… … that’s strange… … uh oh…

Oh man, Sail you slay. Seriously. I shouldn’t laugh out loud at my screen like this. Peeps’ll think I’m a psycho.

Pure gold.

If anyone can turn an utterly hysterical fake wannabe pandemic of a common cold, and a poor and obvious excuse for an asset bubble correction and more robbery of the public purse right in front of our dewy, doe-like eyes as we stand in line waiting to self-check-out a few more bundles of bog roll, into something to chuckle knowingly about, it’s you.

Man, people are going to literally die of embarrassment when this dies down. And sadly, right before they do, they are going to blame everyone but themselves for their reactions, over reactions, and inaction.

It’s already happening here: the tone of some commentators towards our host. I may speak for the majority when I say look in the mirrors if you want to blame someone for your shortcomings and weaknesses–don’t you dare blame Garth.

If you can’t hold the line, it’s on you.

#207 MaryEn on 03.17.20 at 2:23 am

A humour is definitely underestimated these days but could be much more useful in challenging times then toilet paper – coming from someone who survived far worse emergences then COVID-19 or temporary stock market crashes.

Btw. maybe we could make some poll about further expectations since current markets are mostly driven by emotions.

#208 Ustabe on 03.17.20 at 2:58 am

You know me…always looking out on the bright side of life and there are a few things in this troubled time that are good.

For instance all the anti-vaxxers are getting a free preview of what a vaccine free world would be like.

#209 Bob Funk on 03.17.20 at 3:24 am

#57 Stone

The market will bottom when 99% of retail punters are on all fours puking up dollar stocks at a penny and swearing to never invest again. . Isn’t that what always happens? There won’t just be a washout, there’ll be a bloody bath of red ink and puke so bad you can’t stand it anymore. The retail punters won’t only give up but they’ll bury themselves in a bath tub of bad news, some will even get tattoos…”Never Agin”. This won’t be over soon. There won’t be an opportunity for you to suck it up. As long as there’s people selling out of desperation there’ll be a continued sickening collapse cheered on by the media. In my experience, we ain’t seen nothing yet. When the bottom is no where in sight broke investors will sell all the accumulated toys. Wait for that phase to hit the headlines. Parking lots of boats and motor homes for sale with no takers. Then the housing crash will flood the news hour. Boomers selling once they’re retirement funds have been lost. Anyone predicting a surgical end to this is honking their horn. There’s going to be a bloody spill over, possibly lasting years longer than the average punter can keep his sanity. Remember the saying “ Wait until there’s blood in the streets” , there’s too much fat left on the sheep as of yet. Wait until the ravens are picking at the eyeballs. This is a long way from over. Cash is king. Dividends are a strategy but they will be cut to the bone when earnings collapse over the next few quarters, bash bash bash, the bad news will keep punching us in the face. Cash is all that matters now.

#210 Tony on 03.17.20 at 4:02 am

Re: #19 Zach on 03.16.20 at 4:48 pm

I gave advice at the same time on marijuana stocks.
Even if you had of just bought the U.S. ones and sold the Canadian ones short in equal amounts you would have done ok.

#211 Howard on 03.17.20 at 4:42 am

Air Canada wants to socialize its losses onto Canadian taxpayers.

If the company doesn’t have sufficient reserves to survive a month or two of adversity then it doesn’t deserve to survive. Let it fail.

#212 Tony on 03.17.20 at 4:46 am

There’s predictions 50 percent of America will contract the Coronavirus. There has yet to be a sell-off in tobacco stocks compared to the general market. If you can’t breathe smoking will make your chances of dying even greater. Am I the first one to figure this out?

#213 Howard on 03.17.20 at 5:24 am

A 21-year old athlete in Spain just died from the virus. Youngest casualty yet.

#214 Ustabe on 03.17.20 at 6:05 am

Air Canada wants to socialize its losses onto Canadian taxpayers.

If the company doesn’t have sufficient reserves to survive a month or two of adversity then it doesn’t deserve to survive. Let it fail.

Maybe they should cut out a latte or two and start bringing a brown bag lunch.

#215 BlogDog123 on 03.17.20 at 7:17 am

#140 not 1st on 03.16.20 at 8:30 pm
For the first 2 months of 2020 there were;

69,602 deaths from common cold
140,584 from malaria
153,696 suicides
193,479 deaths by road accidents
240,950 people succumb to HIV
358,741 died from alcohol
716,798 smoking deaths
1,177,141 cancer fatalities

and

2360 corona virus deaths

This has conspiracy written all over it.

_____________________

Note for the above larger list of deaths, only COVID-19 has hospitals at their breaking point in Italy and China …

#216 CM on 03.17.20 at 7:49 am

Thanks Garth. We just saw our investments swan dive (yet again), but I put on my big girl pants and remembered not to not panic sell, turning paper losses into real ones. We will just grin and bear this one out, and keep on investing. In 30 years this will have been a blip in the rearview mirror. Thanks for posting.

#217 slick on 03.17.20 at 8:01 am

my rants;

Trudeau waited till everyone left for march break, then turns around and says come home.

Bank kited the rate drop for 4 days before they lowered prime rate.

people are going into malls and businesses and stealing the TP out of the bathrooms.
Any hand sanitizers are getting emptied into peoples own pump bottles.

This whole thing is like when they predict a snowstorm [SNOWMAGEDDON] and the weather girl goes out and interviews the road boss as they are loading salt onto snowplows. then we get 3 inches and it turns into a non-event. will there be issues, yes. Did people Over-react? yes.

The politicians and health experts cry the the sky is falling, and the next one has to follow suit, [or top the previous scare] so they don’t look like they are doing nothing. Similar to Climate change.

#218 akashic record on 03.17.20 at 8:03 am

#140 not 1st

3 months before the outbreak John Hopkins university, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Economic Forum ran a “pandemic simulation” called “Event 201” focused on Coronavirus.

https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/

#219 under the radar on 03.17.20 at 8:09 am

This time it is different . Governments need to backstop every single person quickly. Back stopping banks does not put money in people’s pockets. People will not pay rent, their mortgage , car payments, if they cannot work.

#220 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.17.20 at 8:10 am

CBC Halifax 9am “news” startered with
“Your Corona virus information center….”

I kid you not.
Not ONE mention of yesterday’s market debacle. Nothing.
Sad. a once excellent and informative news organization reduced to pandering to it’s Liberal cash cow.
A conservative govt cant nuke and pave this socialist wailing wall soon enough.

#221 Dharma Bum on 03.17.20 at 8:28 am

One good thing:
Reality has made all those idiotic SJWs shut their pie holes.
Where’s your safe space NOW, seeeeee?

#222 Dharma Bum on 03.17.20 at 8:34 am

I was just in Valparaiso, Chile, whereupon entering a public toilet, for 170 pesos you can get a handful of TP from a toothless 89 year old Chilena.
Sweet.

#223 Ustabe on 03.17.20 at 8:48 am

A conservative govt cant nuke and pave this socialist wailing wall soon enough

Where, in Canada, are you going to find this “conservative” government? Because the current CPC is un-electable and looks to prolong that with the upcoming leadership kerfuffle followed by the anointing of MacKay.

Just look to the rugged Conservative/conservative posters on this very forum…don’t know the difference between advise and advice, bicker among themselves like school yard kids, dog walk those who might be a bit more successful than they are…the types of conversations this group as a whole engage in are the type of conversations that inform the elected or the hope to be in the CPC…they must pander to it for fear of losing the “base”. That is not going to allow the CPC to form a majority in Canada.

#224 Steven Rowlandson on 03.17.20 at 8:54 am

Zehrs is having logistics problems. Customers are buying like there is no tomorrow and the company can’t supply their stores as per normal. The shelves are emptying and not being restocked.
So far I have not encountered anyone sick with COVID-19. What the hell are the authorities trying to do ? Shut down the world so that they can go broke and repudiate what they committed to do? Is that it?

#225 Raging Ranter on 03.17.20 at 9:07 am

#205 Attrition,

If I’m reading your post right, you think COVID-19 is a “fake excuse for an asset bubble correction”? Despite your obviously superior intelligence, which allows you to see right through such scams while the rest of us quake in fear behind our mountains of toilet paper, I’m starting to see another concern filter through some of your posts.

You’re a little freaked out about what this is doing to your investments, aren’t you? Yah, that’s it. You’re angry at the world – and all the stupid people in it – for “overreacting”, because every time you look at your account balance, it’s lower than the last time. You feel cheated, robbed, angry, jaded… I get it. I feel for you. Being smarter than everyone else, which allows you to keep your head while others are losing there’s, is not an easy position to be in. Especially when it costs you money.

Me, I don’t have that problem. I’m stupid. And paranoid. An intellectual dullard. (Ask Ustabe, he’ll tell you.) So stupid and paranoid am I that a couple of years ago I started moving stuff out of stocks and putting them in garbage GICs, because I had this fool idea that stocks – and even bonds – might be in a bubble. I ended up moving pretty much everything out of the market, except for some gold miners. I momentarily felt pretty smart in December 2018, but that was short-lived. I then sat on the sidelines as the market reached new highs repeatedly over the next 14 months. What a tool, eh?

However, once again, I feel quite fortunate for the protective side-effects of my stunted intellect and paranoia, which led me to distrust a market that seemed to have no limit. (My gold miners are down, but that’s only a small portion of my savings.) It’s a very unfair world when a dullard like me gets to keep his money, while intelligent, calm, rational individuals like you get hosed by the actions of paranoid losers. Very unfair. Your bitterness and sense of superiority are entirely justified. In a just world, you would not be punished for being smarter than everyone else.

But chin up old friend. Things could be much worse. We could be Italy, where a fake cold virus has so overwhelmed their healthcare system that doctors are unplugging oldsters from the ventilators so they can give them to younger people with a better chance of surviving.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/world/covid-19-italy-elderly-may-be-left-to-die-in-new-protocol-aimed-at-containing-virus-crisis/wcm/17c6f805-463f-43eb-8389-a812924844de

Now that’s how you fake a pandemic! Those Italians sure have a flare for the dramatic.

And by the way, in case your superior intelligence doesn’t allow you to see the sarcasm, that was all sarcasm (except for the part where I explained how I’m stupid and paranoid and pulled out of the markets in favour of GICs and gold – that part was legit).

But this next part isn’t sarcasm: If COVID-19 fizzles out in North America, it will be BECAUSE of the actions we’re taking right now. Just like Y2K was a bust BECAUSE we spent hundreds of billions fixing computer systems world-wide in the 1990s. Yet people still scream scam about that one too.

Sometimes big problems require big, expensive, inconvenient solutions. If those solutions end up incinerating your net worth, that is an unfortunate side effect, neither personal nor intentional. You are merely collateral damage in a much more important fight.

Stop the ad hominem crap, or you are out of here. – Garth

#226 Sail Away on 03.17.20 at 9:08 am

#217 slick on 03.17.20 at 8:01 am

The politicians and health experts cry the the sky is falling, and the next one has to follow suit, [or top the previous scare] so they don’t look like they are doing nothing. Similar to Climate change.

————————

Yep. Nosedive the economy for political correctness.

Time to pivot and find the opportunity in this.

#227 cristian on 03.17.20 at 9:15 am

Are CPD, ZEB good buys at this level ?

#228 Sail Away on 03.17.20 at 9:16 am

#211 Howard on 03.17.20 at 4:42 am

Air Canada wants to socialize its losses onto Canadian taxpayers.

If the company doesn’t have sufficient reserves to survive a month or two of adversity then it doesn’t deserve to survive. Let it fail.

—————

That’s it. Howard has declared it so.

Maybe give your contact info so the 30,000 AC employees can thank you in person.

#229 Wake Me Up When It's Over on 03.17.20 at 9:31 am

The world is upside down.

Garth dispenses cautionary pessimism on a daily basis to encourage people to take a balanced approach to investing.

Now, people are coming to this blog for a daily dose of much needed optimism.

#230 David Hawke on 03.17.20 at 9:31 am

Spot-on!

Dang, I knew there was a reason that I agree with 90% of what you write!

Of the many businesses I have started and owned, one was focused on selling gear for renewal energy applications – solar panels, battery storage units, home-use wind turbines etc. It’s always been an interest of mine, and this was years before Greta was born. It was not survivalist, but practical and useful, especially for rural dwellers. BTW, I’ve had a stand-by generator at my residential address for 3o years. It’s like buying house insurance, but you actually get to benefit from it (unlike insurance). – Garth

Same here back in the ’80s I owned Sun, Wind, and Fite Systems selling the same products, however, I was ahead of the times with the products being too expensive for the times.

#231 DrC on 03.17.20 at 9:32 am

#175 The Real Mark on 03.16.20 at 10:55 pm

Thank you for the great explanation. That is what I was missing all this time. I definitely have to look more into how bonds are behaving. Thank you!

#232 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.17.20 at 9:34 am

Gas less than $0.80 / lt. this morning in Hfx.

#233 oh bouy on 03.17.20 at 9:41 am

@#220 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.17.20 at 8:10 am
CBC Halifax 9am “news” startered with
“Your Corona virus information center….”

I kid you not.
Not ONE mention of yesterday’s market debacle. Nothing.
Sad. a once excellent and informative news organization reduced to pandering to it’s Liberal cash cow.
A conservative govt cant nuke and pave this socialist wailing wall soon enough.
___________________________________

lol, someones triggered.
you keep ranting about this – maybe you should just not watch CBC?

#234 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.17.20 at 9:45 am

@#223 Ustabe rational
Well……..
I’ll take a “pseudo” conservative govt over this milk sop, pablum ladling band of consensus gathering, paralysed, politically correct liberal idiots any day of the week.

#235 James on 03.17.20 at 10:07 am

#215 BlogDog123 on 03.17.20 at 7:17 am

#140 not 1st on 03.16.20 at 8:30 pm
For the first 2 months of 2020 there were;
69,602 deaths from common cold
140,584 from malaria
153,696 suicides
193,479 deaths by road accidents
240,950 people succumb to HIV
358,741 died from alcohol
716,798 smoking deaths
1,177,141 cancer fatalities
and 2360 corona virus deaths
This has conspiracy written all over it.
_____________________
Note for the above larger list of deaths, only COVID-19 has hospitals at their breaking point in Italy and China …
_____________________________________________
I discussed this contagion with my father who is in the medical field last night. His comment to the conspiracy theorists was “if it’s a conspiracy then go down to the nearest health care centre and provide some assistance in caring for the stricken patients.” Then come and debate the paper trail behind this globalist plan. What is the basis behind this conspiracy theory? Soros? This is a viral pathogen is almost 3 times more contagious than the flu. I noticed that your statistics did not provide data on the flu? COVID-19 affects older people and persons with pre-existing medical disorders (i.e. high blood pressure, heart disease, lung disease, cancer or diabetes) those with these disorders seem to develop serious illness more often than others at a higher percentage. The elderly are most vulnerable and they are the ones hardest hit. Unless you can control it and mitigate the contagion effectively it will spread. Further to your list road accidents are exactly that accidents people passing by alcohol and smoking are lifestyle adoptions while viral pathogens are not. You acquire them by unintended choice.

#236 Howard on 03.17.20 at 10:18 am

#228 Sail Away on 03.17.20 at 9:16 am

Yeah I declared my opinion. I am under no illusion that the nanny state will listen to me.

Since when is it (or since when SHOULD it be) the government’s job to prevent layoffs from any and every failing private business? It’s the government’s job imo to provide a transitory safety net for the period of unemployment and we have it in EI.

I was laid off once. It happens. I got cracking looking for a new job the next day. That’s life.

#237 Raging Ranter on 03.17.20 at 10:24 am

Stop the ad hominem crap, or you are out of here. – Garth

There were no ad hominem attacks in my post. When I used terms like “intellectual dullard” I was referring to myself and only myself. Tongue in cheek of course, though more than a few posters here would agree with that assessment. They might even be right.

The rest of my (admittedly verbose) comment was ridiculing a conspiracy theory that this is a fake pandemic designed to engineer a market correction. If you want to let such ideas multiply unchallenged in your comments section, that’s your right and I’ll leave you to it.

#238 Quarantined Borden Renter on 03.17.20 at 10:28 am

Stop the ad hominem crap, or you are out of here. – Garth
————————–

C’mon, Garth, I thought that was pretty funny! I could really use the sarcastic banter now that I’m “working” from home.

I’m just thankful some recurring posters are kind enough to use the same name each time they post, that way I know exactly which ones to skip over!

Also, if anyone knows why gold is getting hammered the way it is, I’d love to know.

#239 Maryse Power on 03.17.20 at 10:49 am

The damage here is economical, not medical.
What an awfully disappointing comment from an intelligent man. People who have innunocomoromised chldren or spouses are rightly terrified. Hospitals will struggle-the prospect of having to ration ventilators is devastating for staff and patients alike. It’s time for a human response which is what is happening. Money is not everything.

Money is not everything, you’re right. But it builds hospitals, buys ventilators and hires nurses and doctors. Thus we need businesses operating, people working and taxes being paid. The virus’ greatest impact on the largest number of people will be economic, not medical. Park your emotions. My neighbour has pancreatic cancer with a 0% chance of seeing Canada Day this year. You have a 93% chance of surviving the virus. Time for a reality check, Mary. – Garth

#240 ts on 03.17.20 at 10:49 am

Thanks for the uplifting post, Garth. This is much needed in light of all the negative news blaring day and night which is becoming worse by the hour.

#241 Sold Out on 03.17.20 at 10:53 am

#205 Breathe Easy on 03.17.20 at 1:53 am
Most people are not understanding the significance of this pandemic and the havoc it is wreaking on us.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Cogent, coherent, timely, information. Which means 95% of commenters here can’t actually understand it. Try and make it sound like an Alex Jones rant, maybe that’ll work.

#242 Sail Away on 03.17.20 at 10:54 am

#236 Howard on 03.17.20 at 10:18 am

Yeah I declared my opinion. I am under no illusion that the nanny state will listen to me.

Since when is it (or since when SHOULD it be) the government’s job to prevent layoffs from any and every failing private business? It’s the government’s job imo to provide a transitory safety net for the period of unemployment and we have it in EI.

——————-

You are of course entitled to your opinion.

In this case, the government has caused most of AC’S troubles with the mandated draconian measures. If AC had their way, they may well be operating profitably. So, when a company that pays the gov’t billions per year and provides 30,000 jobs is suddenly required to do exactly as ordered, the onus for lost profitability is not completely the company’s responsibility.

Just as my firm can’t operate as usual when 30% of work is put on hold due to actions out of our control, neither can any other company.

Companies don’t stockpile months or years of cash.

My main disagreement is your statement that AC doesn’t deserve to survive if they didn’t put enough cash aside.

#243 Sail Away on 03.17.20 at 11:02 am

#236 Howard on 03.17.20 at 10:18 am

I was laid off once. It happens. I got cracking looking for a new job the next day. That’s life.

——————

And if you were working for AC right now, you’d probably be looking at the same.

Not your fault, not their fault.

#244 bdwy sktrn on 03.17.20 at 11:03 am

Also, if anyone knows why gold is getting hammered the way it is, I’d love to know.
———————————
WAS getting hammered
abx+11.5%
auy+19.9%
miners were getting killed but yesterday was a turn.

#245 James on 03.17.20 at 11:12 am

#64 Westcdn on 03.16.20 at 5:46 pm

I don’t know if anyone has supplied this link. The vaccine technology shows tremendous potential to a quick cure to CV19. https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/

I started nibbling at some equities today. It doesn’t like bottom yet but I couldn’t resist what looked like bargains. I certainly didn’t think blue chip bank stocks would be down 10% in a day.

My big worry is businesses will cut people and dividends hugely.

It looks to me that Trump musing about replacing Powell about a week ago really lit a fire under the man’s ass. I think people crave power/status more that money. It is proof to me that having lots of money does not make you smart.
___________________________________
Trump is chaotic, and he’s selfish and egotistical. His intelligence of strictly related to tricks or deception via skillful persuasion or clever manipulation of a piece of nonsense. But don’t take my word for it just listen to him orate in a non-scripted scenario!

#246 Wake Me Up When It's Over on 03.17.20 at 11:16 am

Money is not everything, you’re right. But it builds hospitals, buys ventilators and hires nurses and doctors. Thus we need businesses operating, people working and taxes being paid. The virus’ greatest impact on the largest number of people will be economic, not medical. Park your emotions. My neighbour has pancreatic cancer with a 0% chance of seeing Canada Day this year. You have a 93% chance of surviving the virus. Time for a reality check, Mary. – Garth

———————————————-
Our forefathers took Vimy Ridge and stormed Juno Beach. They suffered years of anguish during two World Wars. After which they gave thanks and celebrated by procreating. I think it’s incumbent on us to keep it together. Surely we can survive a pandemic and the ensuing financial hardships.

#247 Sail Away on 03.17.20 at 11:27 am

#168 sailedaway on 03.16.20 at 10:42 pm
#155 Sail Away on 03.16.20 at 9:13 pm

Have you thought about selling some stock to make payroll?

———————–

Oh, thanks. Very astute.

Maybe the stock market should also just sell more stock to avoid going into recession?

FFS

#248 Ustabe on 03.17.20 at 11:35 am

@Raging Ranter:

My wife is better looking than yours, my life is better than yours, furthermore back in the day I toured as a roadie with a famous Rock and Roll band across Canada, so if your mom is between say 60 and 70 years old I might even be your father. Lots more too, I’ve lived a life and I’ve lived it as if it was an open book…anyone can stop by and read a page or two…something you have failed to do I surmise.

So this is the second time you have needed to take a specious and ill formed pot shot at me…I still wouldn’t use any of the descriptors you applied to yourself. I think of you not very often but when I do envious and petty spring to mind.

But, you know, go ahead and argue with Garth, expose yourself for the real you, eh?

#249 Damifino on 03.17.20 at 11:35 am

Although I’ve long pined for someone else at the helm, there’s nothing to gain by disparaging Justin Trudeau in the midst of the present crisis. He’s the only PM we have and will certainly remain so through to the end of this.

Perhaps some of his father’s pluck will show through yet. Today I wish him (and yes, his government) the best.

But a year from now?…

#250 Keirh in Rio on 03.17.20 at 11:46 am

Just make sure you have a month’s supply of the THC based product of your choice on hand. Netflix is much easier to deal with when you do.

#251 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 12:04 pm

@#185, Lambchop re:

“#140 not 1st on 03.16.20 at 8:30 pm
For the first 2 months of 2020 there were;

69,602 deaths from common cold
140,584 from malaria
153,696 suicides
193,479 deaths by road accidents
240,950 people succumb to HIV
358,741 died from alcohol
716,798 smoking deaths
1,177,141 cancer fatalities

and

2360 corona virus deaths

This has conspiracy written all over it.

_____________________

This just bears repeating.

————–

No actually it doesn’t bear repeating and does more harm than good by making people complacent. The issue is that our medical system will be unable to deal with the volume of sick (whether due to COVID 19 or not) and injured people if we don’t work together as a society to slow the infection rate (i.e. flatten the curve). It really isn’t that hard to understand. Pray you don’t need medical care FOR ANY REASON, should we be unable to do so.

Complacency is not the enemy right now. It’s toilet-paper-hoarding, store-stripping economy-killing emotional herd panic. – Garth

#252 Citran on 03.17.20 at 12:13 pm

Just for perspective.
on a regular year 141 million people die
if covid 19 kills 4% of the entire world population that’s 320 million
Mostly already ill elderly people, don’t get me wrong I don’t wish anybodys parents or grand parents to die, but sutting down the wolrd economy for this seems a bit over-reacting…. 1700 people die from driving daily , and yet we continue to drive every day. this virus has been going on for more than 3 months 90 days of driving death is 153000, so far covid 19 has only killed 7000…???

#253 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 12:14 pm

For those who are having a hard time understanding why this pandemic is a threat to the health and safety of EVERYONE, not just the old and immunocompromised, imagine if thousands of people got in a serious car accident all at the same time. Imagine if those heart attacks normally spread out throughout a year, happened ALL AT THE SAME TIME.

If we cannot SPREAD OUT the infection rate, our medical system will not be able to deal with the volume of people needing medical care of ALL KINDS. It blows me away that people don’t get this. Please do your part to help slow the infection rate.

#254 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 12:18 pm

@Garth re: ” Complacency is not the enemy right now. It’s toilet-paper-hoarding, store-stripping economy-killing emotional herd panic. – Garth

You are right in the sense that people are reacting in stupid ways, but the point I was trying to make is that the pandemic is not a “conspiracy theory” as Lambchop and others are convinced. It is a real health threat to all of us.

#255 Raging Ranter on 03.17.20 at 12:33 pm

@#248 Ustabe, “pot shot”? Read the above post again. It was aimed entirely at another commenter – who thinks the pandemic is a conspiracy to rob him of assets.

I mentioned your name only in passing (“Ask Ustabe”) because you had questioned my intelligence (or maybe it was just my grammar/word usage?) in the past, so I though I’d have some fun with it. I thought it was harmless, and entirely in keeping with a post that was self-deprecating from start to finish. Honestly, I thought you’d get a kick out of it, in a Sail Away sort of way. A miscalculation on my part.

#256 Penny Henny on 03.17.20 at 12:33 pm

#244 bdwy sktrn on 03.17.20 at 11:03 am
Also, if anyone knows why gold is getting hammered the way it is, I’d love to know.
———————————
WAS getting hammered
abx+11.5%
auy+19.9%
miners were getting killed but yesterday was a turn.
///////////////

there was a liquidity crisis and about the only thing people wanted to hold was CASH.
gold, was stung but so were bonds.
lots more money is in the system this week and gold is shining again.
Canadian gold miners doing well with low canadian dollar and low energy costs, they should soar

#257 Penny Henny on 03.17.20 at 12:35 pm

Bars closed in Ontario :(
This is the first year there will be no mass celebrations on my birthday 2X :(

#258 Raging Ranter on 03.17.20 at 12:41 pm

Last post of the day. I promise. Why not let our Italian friends explain to us why the actions we are taking are not an overreaction?

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-cautionary-tale-italy-dont-do-what-we-did/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

#259 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 12:49 pm

It’s not a real pandemic and it’s not a threat, regardless of the ALLCAPS.

In the old days, we had tithing to satisfy our need for apocalyptic religious penance.

Now it seems virtuously destroying one’s country’s economy is the solution of choice. We’re all taking it on the chin, because everybody else is doing it… and that’s the way to signal.

Everybody’s trying to piss higher on the wall. You burn millions? We’ll burn billions! And shut down the country!

China kicked it off with their full-country shutdown. If they hadn’t done that, nobody would care.

Feels like Game Theory, no?

#260 Lambchop on 03.17.20 at 1:05 pm

#254 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 12:18 pm
@Garth re: ” Complacency is not the enemy right now. It’s toilet-paper-hoarding, store-stripping economy-killing emotional herd panic. – Garth

You are right in the sense that people are reacting in stupid ways, but the point I was trying to make is that the pandemic is not a “conspiracy theory” as Lambchop and others are convinced. It is a real health threat to all of us.

_____________________

Loathe as I am to respond to you, here goes. When I copied and pasted the fatality statistics, I accidentally included the conspiracy theory part at the bottom, so please do not include me in your sweeping statements of conspiracy theorists.
I feel it is important for people to put this pandemic into perspective, compared to real-world information about the effects of various hazards of daily life and their death toll. Smoking has so far killed more than 700,000 people this year and definitely takes resources and hospital beds away from people with other problems, like covid19. Where is the outrage? Where is the gov’t intervention?

The heavy-handed actions from our leaders is destroying our economy, making us all poorer. Why? It seems insane to me to shut down a nation of strong healthy people and remove them from their incomes, rather the isolating people who are at risk. Stop all visits to care homes and hospitals, with intense disinfection protocols for workers in those environments.

There are other solutions. Mass panic and shutdowns is not a good one.

#261 not 1st on 03.17.20 at 1:06 pm

The worst case scenario modelling as in do nothing and carry on shows this virus infecting 70% of the US population resulting in 2.2M deaths.

Terrible for sure but that’s under a 1% mortality rate. That’s lower than deaths due to air pollution.

Again I don’t remember the MSM ever so worked up about obesity or car crash deaths.

If we want to tackle human mortality there are many places to go after. We should be going after the conditions that make people susceptible to these viruses because we cant stop them all, but we sure as hell can do something about obesity, heart disease, overall health.

#262 Barb on 03.17.20 at 1:08 pm

“My neighbour has pancreatic cancer with a 0% chance of seeing Canada Day this year. You have a 93% chance of surviving the virus. Time for a reality check, Mary. – Garth”

———————————-
Poignant.
And an entirely timely reminder.

#263 Katherine on 03.17.20 at 1:09 pm

#258 Raging Ranter

Thank you for that link re Italy. Hopefully we can learn from them. Unfortunately, I still think too many uninformed will be a huge problem with flattening the curve. Hope I’m wrong.

#264 Stone on 03.17.20 at 1:17 pm

#257 Penny Henny on 03.17.20 at 12:35 pm
Bars closed in Ontario :(

———

Now, what would happen if the liquor stores were also closed? Or are they considered essential services?

#265 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 1:22 pm

#211 Howard on 03.17.20 at 4:42 am

If the company doesn’t have sufficient reserves to survive a month or two of adversity then it doesn’t deserve to survive. Let it fail.

————————–

On the farm, from age 13 on, I was in charge of feeding the cows over the winter.

I felt they were being too greedy, so I stopped feeding them, deciding that if they didn’t have sufficient reserves to survive a month or two adversity…

They didn’t make it. I guess that’s the way the cookie crumbles, eh Howie?

#266 Ubul on 03.17.20 at 1:29 pm

” Complacency is not the enemy right now. It’s toilet-paper-hoarding, store-stripping economy-killing emotional herd panic. – Garth

Politicians, CEOs are not known to shut down the economy for the request of toilet-paper-hoarding constituency and employees. Central banks don’t sprinkle trillions around the world to cure the hoarding habit of the general public.

Do they? What has changed?

#267 Deplorable Dude on 03.17.20 at 1:32 pm

Must shut down the planet because Italy…..

#268 Sean in YYC on 03.17.20 at 1:32 pm

Mr. Turner,

Would you consider doing a post on borrowing to invest in this down market and how one might go about taking out a loan and writing down the interest on the investment? I think I have a good handle on it, but it would be great to hear it from an expert.

Cheers,

#269 Attrition on 03.17.20 at 1:44 pm

#259 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 12:49 pm

Well said, well said indeed.

I wish there was a way to encourage folks who, like many, like me from time to time, let their minds keep jumping over and over again to these worst case scenarios, to stop.

Just stop. And breathe.

There. Ah…

You’re letting your fears and emotions control you and you’re seeing others through this herd-mentality lens. Stop galloping blindly.

Guys like Sail and I (if I can consider myself his philosophical compatriot, which admittedly is a stretch, but allow me this temporary conceit) aren’t anyone’s enemy (other than perhaps Neo-Marxist socialists, but not to worry our wisdom can help y’all too). Believe it or not, we’re here to help (sorry Sail, can’t speak for you, but you seem to be).

Stop freaking out about the numbers, the infections, the actions of other countries. None of it is apples to apples.
This virus has been with us a lot longer than anyone knows. As I’ve said, we can’t know the total number of infected, therefore we’ll never know the accurate fatality %.

The virus, the panic, the financial so-called collapse, the human caused shortages, will pass, are passing and have passed.

Calm yourselves. Once calm, just listen to Garth. Remember him? We all praised his calm guidance on the way up, why would anyone ignore him now?

#270 Marco on 03.17.20 at 2:00 pm

Democracy invent leaders without any responsibility.
When shit hits the fan a handsome leader of oh so free world self isolate without taking a test. It is so easy to lead
stupid….

#271 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 2:00 pm

Re: #259 ” It’s not a real pandemic and it’s not a threat, regardless of the ALLCAPS.”

Do you actually know what a “pandemic” is?

Hint: the current situation fits the definition.

Ignoring it is not the solution, as you seem to be suggesting. As with one’s portfolio, balance is key — between minimizing the health threat and minimizing damage to the economy. A challenge for governments and societies throughout the world for sure.

#272 Picksinh3 on 03.17.20 at 2:01 pm

If businesses are closed due to Coronavirus why wouldn’t they close trading? Are there underlying principles to consider.

#273 Maryse Power on 03.17.20 at 2:05 pm

246
I’m not worried about my survival Garth. I am worried for the many immunocompromised patients I treat. The economy will recover.Families will take a lot longer. I think it is great to see people pull together for the sake of protecting our weakest.

#274 not 1st on 03.17.20 at 2:12 pm

We already have a functioning vaccine for many years, just need a crash program to modify it to human use.

We are not starting from scratch here and this is not a foe that is not beatable.

https://www.zoetisus.com/products/beef/scourguard-4k.aspx

#275 Flywest29 on 03.17.20 at 2:15 pm

Thank you Garth for all that you do.

#276 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 2:23 pm

#269 Attrition on 03.17.20 at 1:44 pm

———————–

Haha, yes.

A specific test is developed for COV-19 and applied in different countries:

Hey, look! It’s here!

Here, too!

Wow, same with this country! Must be a pandemic!

Look, I just exhumed an 18th-century soldier, and he had COV-19. It traveled back in time!

There’s no possibility this disease that acts just like a normal cold or flu could possibly have been around before we started to test specifically for it, is there?

No! Apostacy!

#277 Nanny State on 03.17.20 at 2:30 pm

#242 Sail Away on 03.17.20 at 10:54 am
#236 Howard on 03.17.20 at 10:18 am

Yeah I declared my opinion. I am under no illusion that the nanny state will listen to me.

Since when is it (or since when SHOULD it be) the government’s job to prevent layoffs from any and every failing private business? It’s the government’s job imo to provide a transitory safety net for the period of unemployment and we have it in EI.

——————-

You are of course entitled to your opinion.

In this case, the government has caused most of AC’S troubles with the mandated draconian measures. If AC had their way, they may well be operating profitably. So, when a company that pays the gov’t billions per year and provides 30,000 jobs is suddenly required to do exactly as ordered, the onus for lost profitability is not completely the company’s responsibility.

Just as my firm can’t operate as usual when 30% of work is put on hold due to actions out of our control, neither can any other company.

Companies don’t stockpile months or years of cash.

My main disagreement is your statement that AC doesn’t deserve to survive if they didn’t put enough cash aside.

————————————

Privatization of profits and socializing losses is no longer capitalism and hasn’t been for a long time. Hard times come and go and the best prepared should be left to survive without additional printed tax payer debt.

If you’re too big to fail, then you shouldn’t have been allowed to grow to that size by the same system that has to now bail you out, unless you can stand on your own two feet.

#278 NorthOf49 on 03.17.20 at 2:33 pm

#273 Maryse Power on 03.17.20 at 2:05 pm

I’m not worried about my survival Garth. I am worried for the many immunocompromised patients I treat. The economy will recover.Families will take a lot longer. I think it is great to see people pull together for the sake of protecting our weakest.

———————————————————-

Absolutely. Much respect to those working in acute healthcare and putting their own health at risk to help families. Through appropriate government decisions and preparedness in the medical community, we’ll all get through this quicker and be in a position to get the economy back on track.

#279 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 2:33 pm

I’m pretty sure i never suggested “mass panic” to be a good reaction, but to suggest the current “pandemic” (yes, SA it is one), is a big nothing-burger is irresponsible.

#280 Jim on 03.17.20 at 2:36 pm

Brent 28.7800 0.73 -2.47%

For the love of God, why is this happening?

India and China please expand your populations RIGHT NOW!

#281 Ubul on 03.17.20 at 2:37 pm

Here is the culprit. Said to be scientific.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

#282 Penny Henny on 03.17.20 at 2:38 pm

#264 Stone on 03.17.20 at 1:17 pm
#257 Penny Henny on 03.17.20 at 12:35 pm
Bars closed in Ontario :(

———

Now, what would happen if the liquor stores were also closed? Or are they considered essential services?

///////////////

Definitely essential service, although I am stocked up and should be good for a few months.
Beer I can get at the Walmart.

#283 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 2:42 pm

@#260 re: ” Loathe as I am to respond to you, here goes. When I copied and pasted the fatality statistics, I accidentally included the conspiracy theory part at the bottom, so please do not include me in your sweeping statements of conspiracy t the effects of various hazards of daily life and their death toll. Smoking has so far killed more than 700,000 people this year and definitely takes resources and hospital beds away from people with other problems, like covid19. Where is the outrage? Where is the gov’t intervention?

Then don’t respond if you are so “loath”. LOL.

Am I supposed to know that you copy/pasted in error and didn’t mean to write “this has conspiracy theory written all over it”? Sheesh. I notice you didn’t correct what you wrote until after I challenged you. Hmmmm….was it REALLY a copy/paste error? I rather doubt it as it fit with the rest of your comment.

And what the heck does bringing up the number of deaths per year do to smoking have to do with the very real threat of an ongoing pandemic. Do elaborate if you are not too “loath” to do so.

#284 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 2:44 pm

ooops…excuse typos in prior comment.

#285 Sold Out on 03.17.20 at 2:47 pm

#274 not 1st on 03.17.20 at 2:12 pm
We already have a functioning vaccine for many years, just need a crash program to modify it to human use.

We are not starting from scratch here and this is not a foe that is not beatable.

https://www.zoetisus.com/products/beef/scourguard-4k.aspx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Good Lord, man! You’re cracked it. Rush a case over to the WHO labs and show them up for the bumbling fools they are! Me and my four stomachs will volunteer for the first human trials. Mooo.

#286 Lost...but not leased on 03.17.20 at 2:58 pm

CEO’s timely “bailing”

Hmmmm..crystal ball???

https://www.businessinsider.com/bob-iger-keith-block-ceos-that-stepped-down-in-2020#mastercard-ceo-ajay-banga-is-set-to-step-down-in-early-2021-after-more-than-a-decade-running-the-company-16

#287 Blackdog on 03.17.20 at 2:59 pm

#276 re: “Hey, look! It’s here!

Here, too!

Wow, same with this country! Must be a pandemic!

Look, I just exhumed an 18th-century soldier, and he had COV-19. It traveled back in time!

There’s no possibility this disease that acts just like a normal cold or flu could possibly have been around before we started to test specifically for it, is there?

No! Apostacy! ”

Dear lord, are you that naive? Do you think China built new hospitals in a matter of days due to a virus that is nothing new? Do you think Italy is experiencing a medical system crisis for a virus that has been around forever just like the flu?

You are smarter than that aren’t you SA? Maybe this is just another attempt at trolling on your part. Or maybe you just don’t care whether or not our hospitals are overwhelmed and cannot meet the needs of their communities.

#288 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 3:07 pm

#277 Nanny State on 03.17.20 at 2:30 pm

If you’re too big to fail, then you shouldn’t have been allowed to grow to that size by the same system that has to now bail you out, unless you can stand on your own two feet.

————————-

Four feet, in the case of the cows. Parasites.

#289 Jesse Livermore on 03.17.20 at 3:10 pm

Panic smanick. Yesterday morning I scooped up 10,000 shares of Barrick Gold when they collapsed below $18.00 and now am sitting pretty as they are above $25.00. Do the math folks…. love these panics!!

#290 sailedaway on 03.17.20 at 3:20 pm

#192 #247

Didn’t know Garth allowed “FFS” in comments…

Amen for truce Sail Away but do make your mind up.
It’s either truce in #192 or ffs in #247.
lighten up, your alive, hopefully healthy, preferably with as little debt as possible. Try thinking about others, dunno, maybe once. So you grew upon a farm at the age of 13? meh, I lived in one room with my family for a while, worked on family building site at 14. FFS indeed.

2 thirds of mankind have it a lot worse than we usually do.

indeed AC is going to be saved. CHMC will buy 50 billions worth of mortgages. blah blah blah

And now for something completely different,
for you and everyone else who probably has one or more computer(s) doing nothing visit:

https://foldingathome.org/

download app, let it run on default setting, help medical research. currently for covid, also used for cancer etc

Markets are going to be in upswing eventually, maybe Trump’s socialist government doing massive bailouts will help.

#BeBest

#291 TurnerNation on 03.17.20 at 3:22 pm

Posted elsewhere. They have a week left for its use??

https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/E-4.5/

Act current to 2020-02-26

Emergencies Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. 22 (4th Supp.))

#292 TurnerNation on 03.17.20 at 3:23 pm

Where’s Dolce Vita can he confirm anything form ITaly? Does he know anyone with the issue

#293 not 1st on 03.17.20 at 3:27 pm

US has state of the art anti virals at the ready.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6obVaOAyHro

#294 Sail away on 03.17.20 at 3:42 pm

#290 sailedaway on 03.17.20 at 3:20 pm

Didn’t know Garth allowed “FFS” in comments…

Amen for truce Sail Away but do make your mind up.
It’s either truce in #192 or ffs in #247.

————————

By no means am I in truce with all your dissonant blog identities. #192 was not you.

Sell stock in a recession, eh? …okay then… thanks for the nonsense.

#295 cto on 03.17.20 at 3:44 pm

According to the conference board of Canada, due to exceptional reactions by the Bank of canada lowering interest rates, they expect the HOUSING MARKET WILL BRING US OUT OF RECESSION 3rd quarter 2020 THROUGH GREATER HOUSING SALES AND PRICES.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/17/2001864/0/en/Canada-teeters-on-the-brink-of-recession.html

#296 Barb on 03.17.20 at 3:54 pm

#281 Ubul on 03.17.20 at 2:37 pm

Thanks for posting the link to that 20-page scientific document. Definitely a good read, even for my layperson brain!

#297 #268 on 03.17.20 at 4:21 pm

Was thinking the same thing, is now a good time to use the line of credit to add to the portfolio?

#298 Sold Out on 03.17.20 at 4:36 pm

WRT the socialism genie being let out of the bottle…

How do you get the toothpaste back in the tube? Imagine the world’s political systems being dragged to the left, permanently. It’s looking a lot like an experiment in MMT and UBI. Interesting days.

#299 Everything is better in USA! USA! on 03.17.20 at 7:27 pm

United States can afford to give out $1000 to its citizens. What would Canada do? Its people are already quite poor and already needed extra cash just to breathe. Buy more houses. lol

#300 Summer Visitor on 03.18.20 at 12:11 am

Hey Garth,

I dropped by in the summer with my wife, grabbed a picture with you. Thanks … it was rad.

Love your writing … and your analysis.

Cheers.

#301 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 03.18.20 at 10:58 am

Summer may numb the virus but come September October when it gets colder the virus could come back if there is no vaccine by ten….. YIKES So happy I listened to Mike Maloney Hidden Secrets of Money on You Tube. Long ago because of his education I stocked up on everything. Took all my cash out of the bank and have been buying gold and silver for 10 years….

#302 Sail Away on 03.18.20 at 12:03 pm

#301 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 03.18.20 at 10:58 am

Summer may numb the virus but come September October when it gets colder the virus could come back if there is no vaccine

———————-

You mean… like a cold? Oh my.

#303 Heinrich on 03.18.20 at 12:24 pm

The future is full of large unknowns.The virus could hang around for years or it could peter out in a year or so.Nobody and I mean nobody has a definitive answer

I have always been a gambler/risk taker during most of my life.I guess it is the thrill of the possiblity of a big score that intrigues me most and gets the dopamine level bubbling.I have lost more times than won hands down.BUt the thrill of future winning compensates for the previous losses.
I also believe leverage(borrowing $) to speculate can be provide one with the means to mulitply ones gains expotenitally.Problem is a loss using leverage can be catastrophic on ones bottom line.But as I stated initially the chance of hitting it big hits a switch in my brain.
Now down to the brass tacks:
There is one hard asset at the present time(which is also being driven into the ground by this whole virus situation.The virus persay is not the leading contributor to this assets suffering..that is a narrative that would takes the length of a short novel to get to gets ones head around.Suffice to use the work Manipulation:M.a.n.i.p.u.l.a.t.i.o.n!!!!

The asset is PHYSICAL Silver bullion.Due to time and space limitations one must perform one’s own due dilgence to understand the utterly amazing investment potential embodied in physical Silver.

I am not offering investment advice BUT take some time and investigate the Silver STory.At the current time the reward potential is off the charts!!!!.
I timed correctly and leveraged the potential payoff could set you and your family up for life.

Personally I invested in some physical bullion 12 years ago at the very bottom of the silver price cycle.Within just slightly over a year all the planets aligned perfectly and my investment had increased in value by 400 percent.Had it not been for that little bugaboo called price manipulation there is no doubt I would have witnessed at least a tenbagger in price accension.!!!!

To sum while most investors are running around in panic and fear attempting to mitigate loss take a few moments take a deep breath and seek and ye shall find.
P.S While I still made a few bucks on my silver investment I made one common mistake…I allowed myself to become consumed by human GREED.I should have sold when the price had risen by 300 plus percent .Instead I chose to stay in there and due to the criminal behavour of some I came out about even on my investemt.
The Second time around this will not happen.The manipulation of which I spoke days are numbered.Currently the entry price is $17 Cdn with a silver to gold ration of 126:1!!!!!
Consider that the ratio should reflect historical averages which hover around 10 to 1….!!!!!!!
Good luck my she be on your side.