Anatomy of bear markets

RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

.

It’s official…we just experienced the first bear market – defined as a 20%+ drop from a previous peak – since the 2008/09 financial crisis. In the fourth quarter of 2018 we got within a hair of a 20% decline, so from my perspective that was a bear market despite it not meeting the industry standard of one. That said, with this market carnage, indiscriminate selling and many people/investors just basically losing their minds, where do we go from here? Today I’m going to review past bear markets to see if we can glean any valuable insights into this question and I’ll provide the indicators I’m monitoring to help me determine when this sell-off may be over.

Let’s begin with a look back at the previous bear markets in the table below. Again a bear market is defined as a 20%+ peak-to-trough decline, which I view as arbitrary and simplistic, but nonetheless let’s focus on these specific occurrences.

Since 1945 there have been 12 “official” bear markets. Here are the key takeaways from them:

  • The average bear market decline is 31% while the median decline is 29%
  • As of March 12th the S&P 500 is down 27% so we’re pretty close to the average decline
  • More recently the S&P 500 declined 49% in the 2000 tech crash and 57% during the 2008/09 financial crisis. I do not believe these are good comparables since: 1) the S&P 500 was extremely overvalued at a 30x P/E in 2000 versus a recent peak in February of 22x; and 2) this is not a financial crisis as US banks are in much stronger shape today so we don’t see a potential economic recession bringing down the banks, leading to a negative feedback loo
  • The 1987 stock market crash saw the S&P 500 decline 34% but not widely known, posted a 5% total return for the year. Personally, I think this may turn out to be the best comparison for this current downturn
  • On average bear markets last 13 months. We’re only 2 months in so this suggests we have more time to go before this ends
  • Finally, I then looked at how long it takes to get back to even assuming you were the worst investor in the world and invested right at the peak of every bull market. On average, it takes three and a half years to get back to even. Again this assumes you’re the worst market timer in the world

For me this analysis points to a potential silver lining. With the S&P 500 already down 27%, and the average decline being 31%, it suggests we’re getting closer to the bottom. Now I’m not making that bold call yet, as the headlines remain incredibly negative, infections should continue to rise in US and Europe, and we are likely to see a global recession in the coming quarters.

But are we 50%, 75% or more through this bear market? Time will tell but I do believe we have already endured a good chunk of this bear market and I believe strongly that we will get through this and we’ll look back at this time as a buying opportunity.

US Bear Markets Since 1945

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Now on to what I’ll be focusing on to help me determine when we may be through the worst of this.

First, we need to see a peak in infection rates. According to Johns Hopkins data, cases of new infections in China look to have peaked, however rates in the US and Europe are heading higher. Our hope and expectation is that infection rates will peak in North America and Europe in the spring. The next few weeks and month will be key!

Second, we need to see the US yield curve steepen. With fears the virus will lead to slower economic growth and possibly a recession, US government bond yields have plummeted, resulting in another yield curve inversion. This suggests a recession is coming. If there is one I believe it will be short lived with economic growth recovering once the virus is behind us. The Fed is starting to cut interest rates and is likely to cut further so this may help address the inverted yield curve.

US Yield Curve

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Third, I would be looking for attractive valuations for stocks. Currently, the S&P 500 trades at a 16.2x P/E ratio, which is well off from its recent highs of 22x and close to its long-term average. This is an interesting level since the S&P 500 has bottomed at this level three times since 2015 (see chart). Basically this level has created a floor in stock prices for the last 5 years. Let’s hope it holds.

If it doesn’t the S&P 500 would probably drop to a P/E of 13-14x level, which would then likely be a strong buy.

S&P 500 P/E Ratio

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Lastly, I would need to see a turnaround in the technicals. I would like to see: 1) the S&P 500 rise back above its 50 and 200-day moving averages; 2) the Hang Sang/Shanghai breakout; and 3) the airlines and cruise ships rally.

What I do is more of an art than a science so I don’t need all of these things to come together, but a combination of a few of these factors would likely make me more bullish. For now it’s time to sit and chill. No sudden movements!

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

196 comments ↓

#1 Emile on 03.14.20 at 10:40 am

> 3) the airlines and cruise ships rally.

Won’t that be a little difficult provided these sectors are pretty boarded up these days? Wouldn’t these sectors be a bit of a lagging indicator; where they’ll be the last to get better; in homage to Monte Python?

#2 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 10:55 am

How can we position ourselves to make money out of the people going to be laid off?

Sell them work from home courses?

#3 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 11:08 am

Many cruise ship customers are older and repeat customers.
I think that segment will be lost for quite a while.
The huge mega boats are probably toast.
The airlines are now forecasting losses in the 200 billion range.
Will Boing survive?
In 2008, it was just about losing your money.
This time, it’s worrying about losing people, too.
The good thing is that the Prez is finally coming to his senses and showing some leadership.

#4 Smart Investor on 03.14.20 at 11:21 am

Where’s the Bottom? – Cycles Paint A Clear Picture
we are almost there.

https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/partners/idevaffiliate.php?id=483&url=https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/wheres-the-bottom-the-question-everyone-is-asking/

#5 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.14.20 at 11:24 am

I’ve been thinking of taking the wife a cruise for quite some time. Not anymore. I sure don’t want to be imprisoned on a cruise ship for two weeks or more against my will.

#6 Gino on 03.14.20 at 11:26 am

Can you weigh in on if this time it’s different given the trillions and trillions of money printing and injections and buybacks etc since financial crash in 2009? Historical references may not be good proxies.

#7 Paddy on 03.14.20 at 11:27 am

They say not to time the market but damn these prices are tempting. RCL was 135 usd…its 32 usd now…like pardon me??

#8 Randy on 03.14.20 at 11:29 am

Stock market is done. Corona was the pin that pricked the EVERYTHING bubble. Going forward you will deal in crypto currency, silver(Not for monetary value but for industrial), gold. “Its difficult to convince a man of something when his job depends on him not understanding it” NO MER’s for you!

#9 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 11:32 am

#2 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 10:55 am
How can we position ourselves to make money out of the people going to be laid off?
————
I you own a business, hold on to your staff.
When this thing picks up again, you’ll be way ahead of the curve.
this has been proven in previous recessions.
Not a concept that sailor dude will endorse.

#10 reponeo on 03.14.20 at 11:41 am

Ryan,

Honestly, I have asked for several months now but could you PLEASE make a blog post about the Repo Market. It’s the elephant in the room that is stomping the market right now so continuing to be silent about it or ignoring it is doing a disservice.

#11 Howard on 03.14.20 at 11:42 am

CMHC just announced a 6-month mortgage holiday. No word yet on whether the feds will also grant a rent holiday for the same period. It’s only fair, right?

#12 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 11:45 am

#182 Stone on 03.14.20 at 10:16 am
I suspect the birth rate around the world will have increased significantly over the next 7-18 months.

Anyone disagree?
————
Actually, in China the divorce rates are spiking.

#13 Don Guillermo on 03.14.20 at 11:49 am

#11 Howard on 03.14.20 at 11:42 am
CMHC just announced a 6-month mortgage holiday. No word yet on whether the feds will also grant a rent holiday for the same period. It’s only fair, right?

**********************************************

What about a holiday for people that own their homes outright? What do they get for being responsible? Oh I know … maybe a free cruise!!

#14 just a dude on 03.14.20 at 11:52 am

Ryan, thank you for another excellent post.

And thank you as well to Garth and his entire team for freely sharing their expertise and extremely helpful & measured opinions and facts, particularly during these “interesting” times. It’s greatly appreciated.

#15 MicroGX on 03.14.20 at 11:55 am

Thanks for the insight Ryan. It helps.

#16 Doug in London on 03.14.20 at 11:55 am

I have no idea how long this bear market, or buying opportunity, will last. My crystal ball is made of black ebony and looks a lot like the bowling ball that went missing from the local Fleetway Bowling Alley some years ago. However, keep in mind how low interest rates are with these recent cuts. As soon as it looks like the worst is behind us, a lot of money looking for a decent rate of return will go flowing into equities.

#17 Yukon Elvis on 03.14.20 at 11:59 am

Awesome charts Ryan. Well done.

#18 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 12:02 pm

#5 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.14.20 at 11:24 am
I’ve been thinking of taking the wife a cruise for quite some time. Not anymore. I sure don’t want to be imprisoned on a cruise ship for two weeks or more against my will.
—————
And having to pay a good schilling for the “pleasure”

#19 Emile on 03.14.20 at 12:05 pm

Thanks @Howard

Link for the interested. https://twitter.com/CMHC_ca/status/1238829759834066944

#20 Bdwy on 03.14.20 at 12:07 pm

#1 agree.drop cruise lines an indication. They may never come back. The snap back of broader markets will be powerful once the nba, Nascar, the masters , theaters ,conventions etc reopen. There will be pent up demand

Finally took a hit on friday trading my upside down sp500 etf. Can’t win them all I suppose.

Add one vote to keeping this a financial blog and offending the sjw empathy wimps whenever possible
Pbn

#21 Sail away on 03.14.20 at 12:12 pm

#9 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 11:32 am
#2 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 10:55 am

How can we position ourselves to make money out of the people going to be laid off?

———————–

I you own a business, hold on to your staff.

When this thing picks up again, you’ll be way ahead of the curve.

this has been proven in previous recessions.

Not a concept that sailor dude will endorse.

———————

Says the man who’s boasted about taking his previous credit union employer to cleaners when he left by strangling them (the CU) for an outsized settlement which contributed to the CU’s ultimate collapse.

Let’s just say you’re not my first choice for business advice.

#22 N on 03.14.20 at 12:15 pm

Gun at a Grocery Store…. Seems that they’ll need more security at Grocery Stores.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-shoppers-flee-as-loblaws-employees-tackle-man-with-gun/#comments

#23 Dmitry on 03.14.20 at 12:21 pm

We have not experienced this yet. Give it couple month, then try to put this market in perspective…

#24 yvr_lurker on 03.14.20 at 12:27 pm

What is so very disconcerting about this crash is that it is so very sudden (3 weeks) and due to something that could not be anticipated (some virus originating in a research lab that escaped or the issue with the live markets). Sending a wave of plague of this sort all over the globe only underscores how fragile we all are due to the extreme inter-connectedness. The weakest link in the chain has the power of sending a tsunami to innundate us all.

That being said, there is not so much one can do. We need to reply on the markets and invest (rather than be in a cash or HISA or GIC) as there is the danger of running out of money after retirement. Yet, on the other hand, losing 25% of your investments in 3 weeks to something that emerges out of nowhere and unpredictable (i.e. pandemic, meteor strike, etc..) is very unsettling. Little time for people to prepare and protect.

However, the time now is for people to be good citizens and really follow the directions of the public health people who are being informed by a whole range of scientists who understand epidemics and make it their career modeling spread etc… Just do what they say and don’t complain. My closest friend at work is an epidemic modeler who is working with colleagues around the globe (ETH, UCSF medical center etc, BC center disease control..) to try to predict what will happen in the next few months. Modeling is imprecise of course but the model predictions for the worst case scenario for the U.S. of around 30% infected without extreme measures implemented is what is being reported. Be safe and do as you are directed and really think of your other citizens who are more vulnerable. Although I have the urge to build a bunker in my back yard to hide out from the crazies buying a years supply of toliet paper in one sitting, I am not there yet.

#25 BBD(BarkingBlackDog) on 03.14.20 at 12:27 pm

@#2 sailedaway,

LOL!

#26 Capt. Serious on 03.14.20 at 12:30 pm

Though stocks rallied on Friday late on Trump’s speech, I think we still have another leg down to come as people really start to see what increasing caseload looks like. There is another round of panic to come. The USA is so far behind in testing, they are going to see more like an Italy situation until they can get on top of it. They need to be set up to separate people from families (family cluster transmission breakage was a big factor in China getting their outbreak under control). There needs to be testing available everywhere, and people have to be diverted immediately to testing sites when they show symptoms out in public. We’re not there yet.

#27 Ryan Lewenza on 03.14.20 at 12:40 pm

Emile “3) the airlines and cruise ships rally. Won’t that be a little difficult provided these sectors are pretty boarded up these days? Wouldn’t these sectors be a bit of a lagging indicator; where they’ll be the last to get better; in homage to Monte Python?“

Stock prices lead the economy and fundamentals. Meaning the cruise ship stock prices will start to rally well before the fundamentals (ie bookings, revenues etc) do. Also they are down 80% already so they may have sold off more than their underlying value. In past crises (ie tech bubble, financial crisis) you often see a turn in those stocks first as a sign things are washed out and starting to turn. So I don’t see airlines and cruise ships as a lagging indicator. – Ryan L

#28 Camille on 03.14.20 at 12:41 pm

Thank you Ryan for great insights into bear markets. How would you assess the risk to dividend and interest payouts in a diversified portfolio, that your clients might hold, say 60/40. In bear markets might these be under stress and reduced?

#29 Bezengy on 03.14.20 at 12:42 pm

So are all those DB pension plans in trouble? I would think the sustainability just went to zero for many of them.

#30 Deplorable Dude on 03.14.20 at 12:43 pm

How long can the airlines hold on for? Not long I bet.

This is way worse than 2008. We didn’t have major portions of the World’s economic engine shutting down overnight.

This is a massive overreaction to what for most people would be nothing more than a bad cold. Not helped by a rabid frothing at the mouth media delighting in causing folks to panic.

Should have just had quarantine and social distancing for the at risk demographics…not the entire bleeding planet.

The world has gone nuts.

#31 Cto on 03.14.20 at 12:47 pm

Cmhc 6 month mortgage holiday? What?
This socialist Canada will pull out every single stop possible to keep a float this giant housing gas bag!
This, at the expense of every single person that had ever tried to live a prudent and responsible lifestyle working for a living trying to get buy the honest way.
I guess they figure that we all think together.
Disgusting!!!!!

#32 Ryan Lewenza on 03.14.20 at 12:50 pm

Randy “Stock market is done. Corona was the pin that pricked the EVERYTHING bubble. Going forward you will deal in crypto currency, silver(Not for monetary value but for industrial), gold. “Its difficult to convince a man of something when his job depends on him not understanding it” NO MER’s for you!”

That’s just a silly thing to say. Do you really believe we’ll stop using foreign currencies and start using bitcoin and silver to transact? And that the stock market is done? Will people buy less iPhones, go to diner less, and travel less for the next 6-12 months. Sure, but to say the stock market is “done” and silver is the answer is silly in my view. And I think I heard the same argument during Y2K! – Ryan L

#33 Cto on 03.14.20 at 12:50 pm

DELETED

#34 JSS on 03.14.20 at 12:54 pm

Less tummy rubs coming…

The release of the domestic stability buffer will support in excess of C$300B of additional lending capacity by D-SIBs.

OFSI said it expects that banks will use the additional lending capacity to support Canadian businesses and households and should not use this measure to increase distributions to shareholders or employees or to buy back shares.

OSFI today set the expectation for all federally regulated financial institutions that dividend increases and share buybacks should be halted for the time being.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/news/3551731-canadian-bank-regulator-cuts-d-sib-buffer-requirement-to-increase-liquidity

#35 not 1st on 03.14.20 at 12:55 pm

If mom and pop retail investor get whipsawed out of the market AND experience a recession with job losses AND have to self quarantine for a couple months AND have to use up saving to survive AND have to delay their retirement plans, AND whatever else??

I 100% guarantee they will never go back into the equities market.

Their loss. Just as happened in 2008. We are a poorer, less diversified, more financially fragile and worse-prepared society as a result of such emotional investment decisions (and statements). – Garth

#36 Thank You on 03.14.20 at 12:56 pm

Thank you for the excellent explanation. I don’t usually appreciate charts but I am beginning to appreciate their relevance when explaining complex issues.
This situation is unique but it will pass, although not as quickly as we would all like. In the meantime, we are all learning behaviors that may protect us from future flu and colds.

#37 Shinzai on 03.14.20 at 1:07 pm

Very soon the full weight of the virus as it hits Europe and USA will impact not just supply chains but the emotions and sentiment of the people.

The virus cannot be financialized, measured, and then bent by the will of the Fed, Wall Street or government.

A global recession was already in the cards for 2020, the virus will kick markets to the gutter before they get better.

And then when all is said and done the sentiment of the people will have changed, the emotional scars they bear and the job losses they live with will not drive a V recovery.

#38 Flop... on 03.14.20 at 1:30 pm

If anyone is feeling stressed out, I have the perfect remedy.

Call Expedia, try to cancel your trip at the last minute.

Four hours on wait listening to Kenny G. play the saxophone, and all your troubles melt away…

M45BC

#39 Mf on 03.14.20 at 1:31 pm

Thanks Ryan. I was wondering when to invest my little bit of extra money, now I don’t feel to be rushed.

#40 not 1st on 03.14.20 at 1:33 pm

I will just point out for all posters, that Justin flushed $125B of our dollars into a giant hole and got nothing for it.

That’s enough money to build 2 new hospitals in every province in the country. Priorities eh.

And it sure would be nice to have a lot of those energy and infrastructure projects that were canclled to bring us out of the recession when it comes? More loans to businesses aren’t going to restart the economy.

#41 Repurchase Disagreement on 03.14.20 at 1:41 pm

#5. Bytor the Snow Dog..

Stay home….

The Sign of Eth is rising in the air!

#42 paul on 03.14.20 at 1:50 pm

#5 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.14.20 at 11:24 am
I’ve been thinking of taking the wife a cruise for quite some time. Not anymore. I sure don’t want to be imprisoned on a cruise ship for two weeks or more against my will.
——————————————————————–
Take your girl friend (new) it won’t seem as long. lol

#43 Flop... on 03.14.20 at 1:52 pm

I’ve had a few botched surgeries the past 5 years.

One time, I crawled around the house like a dog for 7 months, keeping to myself.

I was ahead of my time in social distancing…

M45BC

#44 conan on 03.14.20 at 1:54 pm

I would not be surprised if we start changing rules and regulations so we are not so weak and helpless for the next Corona.

For example, we need the Gig economy under control in regards to workers rights and access to social programs. Going forward I would like to see one employment rule.

If you make less than 30 bucks an hour you are an employee, where deductions are taken. No more self employed people making basic wages without benefits.
What we have now is out of control and society is about to pay the price.

#45 Was on board ... on 03.14.20 at 1:55 pm

an Alaskan cruise ship last year … seemed almost every other person had either a walker or a wheelchair. Received a brochure offering another Alaskan cruise for half price about a week ago but I think BC has now cancelled the cruise ships for a while. We have seen the odd ship quarantined before, but this will hurt the industry for a loooong time I think. Too bad as it helps the local economies.

#46 Victorian on 03.14.20 at 1:55 pm

Those massive cruise ships will make perfect hospitals and also dwellings for the homeless

#47 Paul on 03.14.20 at 1:57 pm

#11 Howard on 03.14.20 at 11:42 am
CMHC just announced a 6-month mortgage holiday. No word yet on whether the feds will also grant a rent holiday for the same period. It’s only fair, right?
——————————————————————–
What if your landlord has it? oh,yah screw him lol

#48 Shawn on 03.14.20 at 2:00 pm

Great post. What’s interesting so far is the strength in the US tech QQQ (and Canadian tech sector XIT) and the healthcare sector VHT ZUH. These charts look like normal corrections rather than devastating bear markets. Financials KRE XLF XFN transports IYT small caps IWM IJR mid caps MDY oil XLE and other economically sensitive sectors are down 25-70% on the other hand.

International equities are also down more than the S&P500. VWO VGK

The tech and US strength should be noted.

#49 Physicist on 03.14.20 at 2:03 pm

Ryan,

I think you mean positive feedback loop, not negative.

#50 Raging Ranter on 03.14.20 at 2:06 pm

OSFI has been ratcheting up the capital stability buffer for the past year and a half due to heightened loan loss risks. Yesterday they slashed the capital stability buffer by more than half, from 2.25% down to 1%, freeing banks to lend an additional $300 billion. What’s the point of a capital buffer if it is removed right at time of maximum risk? Isn’t that the opposite of what they should be doing?

I get they want more available credit to ease businesses and consumers through the crisis. But is slashing the buffer meant to stabilize banks during volatile conditions the right way to do it?

I suppose the argument will be made that “This is why we enhanced the capital buffer – so we could lower it again in a crisis. This way the banks would have some dry powder to lend against a sudden financial shock. Just like we planned it all along.” Sounds nice and logical and all according to plan. But I don’t ever recall this part of the plan being discussed before. I suspect that will merely be a narrative used to backfill and justify the decision after the fact.

#51 Not So New guy on 03.14.20 at 2:08 pm

#24 yvr_lurker on 03.14.20 at 12:27 pm

What is so very disconcerting about this crash is that it is so very sudden (3 weeks) and due to something that could not be anticipated (some virus originating in a research lab that escaped or the issue with the live markets).

===================================

The Black Swan needed to arrive this way. The Central Banks have demonstrated that any effort by Mr. Market to correct the excesses by economic means were just being met with printing and more excesses.

The only other pathway was via some sort of social crisis that could affect business and commerce and yet slip easily past the CB printing presses…

That is why this black swan has a bad cough

#52 reynolds531 on 03.14.20 at 2:09 pm

Do you know what really scares me? The Apocalypse2019 guy isn’t commenting. If he goes dark, then I’m really scared.

#53 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 2:12 pm

Will there be another Corvid crisis?

Quoth the Raven, ‘Nevermore.’

#54 Flop... on 03.14.20 at 2:14 pm

Hey Rhino, are we still going together to The Masters golf tournament later this year on your corporate tickets…

M45BC

#55 Michael King on 03.14.20 at 2:19 pm

Added some Canadian bank common shares this week to dollar cost average down: Royal on Monday and TD on Thursday. The dividend yields were too tempting. That said, the equity markets could easily roller coaster down for another six months. So, I’m cooling it for a while. IMO Robert Shiller always has interesting and important things to say. Best wishes to all.
https://qz.com/1818061/robert-shiller-says-the-coronavirus-disruption-is-different-from-other-economic-crises/

#56 espressobob on 03.14.20 at 2:20 pm

It would be nice to see another leg down in the indices. Still packing some dry powder just in case. Impossible to call the bottom so I just buy on the way down.

Always smart taking profit on the way up for this reason.

Opportunities like this don’t present themselves often enough.

#57 Stone on 03.14.20 at 2:25 pm

#12 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 11:45 am
#182 Stone on 03.14.20 at 10:16 am
I suspect the birth rate around the world will have increased significantly over the next 7-18 months.

Anyone disagree?
————
Actually, in China the divorce rates are spiking.

———

Because of pregnancies? Lol

#58 MF on 03.14.20 at 2:26 pm

182 Stone on 03.14.20 at 10:16 am

Yes I disagree.

No one can afford children. The system is basically dead.

MF

#59 Dr V on 03.14.20 at 2:27 pm

40 not first – our new local hospital is pegged at several hundred million. 300-400 beds. $125B should get a lot more than 20 hospitals.

#60 CDN Preferreds! on 03.14.20 at 2:28 pm

We know you are a big fan Ryan! Are you buying CDN preferred? Can they actually get any cheaper? They are way below 2008!

Cash flow for whisky!

#61 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.14.20 at 2:31 pm

#42 paul on 03.14.20 at 1:50 pm sez:

“#5 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.14.20 at 11:24 am
I’ve been thinking of taking the wife a cruise for quite some time. Not anymore. I sure don’t want to be imprisoned on a cruise ship for two weeks or more against my will.
——————————————————————–
Take your girl friend (new) it won’t seem as long. lol”
********************************
Good one! The funny part is my wife and I both dread being “stuck” in the house (with each other) for two weeks if we have to “self isolate”. I guess 35 years of familiarity might breed a touch of contempt?

Or is it true love? :-)

#62 Wait There on 03.14.20 at 2:32 pm

If a true firewall was built around travel from China, and everybody cooperated, it would not have come to this. Yes, airlines and various segments would have felt some pain. But this reminds me of a situation where you take some bitter medicine today and keep all your limbs. Or take nice and easy route and lose some limbs later.

Remember it’s not 92% will survive but 8% over 70 will NOT. And the horror of the number of over 75 that will not. When the ICU runs out of respirators, how about you walk down the hall and keep repeating that 92% will survive.

#63 Howard on 03.14.20 at 2:34 pm

#13 Don Guillermo on 03.14.20 at 11:49 am
#11 Howard on 03.14.20 at 11:42 am
CMHC just announced a 6-month mortgage holiday. No word yet on whether the feds will also grant a rent holiday for the same period. It’s only fair, right?

**********************************************

What about a holiday for people that own their homes outright? What do they get for being responsible? Oh I know … maybe a free cruise!!

——————————————-

An invoice.

That’s what you get for being responsible in Justin Trudeau’s post-national state.

#64 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 2:39 pm

I’m going to be saving a fortune next week putting my staff on EI.

They’re always whining anyway.

So with the payroll saved, I’m looking where I can invest asap.

Prison sector in the US is looking good, medical stuff for that fake scare too

Hoping to buy some townhouse soon in repo and rent them back fast.

#65 NoName on 03.14.20 at 2:42 pm

#38 Flop… on 03.14.20 at 1:30 pm
If anyone is feeling stressed out, I have the perfect remedy.

Call Expedia, try to cancel your trip at the last minute.

Four hours on wait listening to Kenny G. play the saxophone, and all your troubles melt away…

M45BC

Did you know kenny was early investor in starbuks, networth around 100mil as per internet, think about that for moment.

#66 technical analysis on 03.14.20 at 2:45 pm

this was the second most expensive market in history.

SP P/E (CAPE) hit 36.45 Jan 2018 and 35.44 a month ago.
that’s HIGHER than 2018, and HIGHER than 1929. only the Nasdaq bubble years 2000 was the market more expensive.

the yield curve inverted last year and everyone here dismissed it. the yield curve has predicted 8/8 recessions. every single one since 1968. this time was no different.

this will be as big a correction as the last two.
the TSX broke a 50 year uptrend line.
the SP500 broke a 10 year trendline.
you’d better pray the SP doesn’t close below the Dec 2018 lows….

btw, someone needs a math lesson. Average and Median numbers are not correct for peak-trough and number months… sloppy work

#67 Andrew on 03.14.20 at 2:49 pm

When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.

Hunter S. Thompson

#68 Stratovarious on 03.14.20 at 2:57 pm

Your analysis is logical although you don’t calculate how the “E” in “PE ratio” is going to change with business all but shut down. In Seattle, significant layoffs are already occurring as the restaurant, travel & leisure, and other services close. How many people are going to buy a new Ford when they are uncertain about the future? And since this is a pandemic, it is naive to think that this storm will pass in a couple of months and everything will be back to normal. Helicopter money from the Fed will not be adequate to restore confidence and faith for years to come. Buying the S&P in the 2300 area (which appears to be your forecast) is suicide.

#69 Xpat on 03.14.20 at 2:57 pm

A few points – Money market funds had their highest inflows on record last week. That money will have to flow back sometime.

The retail investor panicking is mostly myth – Vanguard reported most are doing nothing but they had increased BUYING.

The big guys are getting margin calls due to liquidity issues and it snowballs. It’ll settle down. You’ll kick yourself for not buying in a few years.

Don’t fight the fed and always bet on humans.

#70 Belieber on 03.14.20 at 3:00 pm

If this doesn’t tip the Canadian Housing Market than nothing will.

#71 NoName on 03.14.20 at 3:02 pm

#22 N on 03.14.20 at 12:15 pm
Gun at a Grocery Store…. Seems that they’ll need more security at Grocery Stores.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-shoppers-flee-as-loblaws-employees-tackle-man-with-gun/#comments

Why they have to raise egziaty in people by having security guards in stores. But wreely funny and interesting part is that it happened in organic section…

#72 Post on 03.14.20 at 3:10 pm

Thank you Ryan – for not sugar coating it. Not being too optimistic nor too bearish. Reality is nobody knows. Thanks for your honesty.

#73 mark on 03.14.20 at 3:17 pm

Bonds pay nothing or negative after inflation, can one of the fancy pants PLEASE explain bond convexity and how some say the long bond 15+year ave maturity may kick everything’s %^$. Bonds may perform better than everything else at these low rates, but having hard time wrapping my head around bond convexity thing….Thanks.
Not sure this is even valid?????

#74 Don Guillermo on 03.14.20 at 3:19 pm

#59 Dr V on 03.14.20 at 2:27 pm
40 not first – our new local hospital is pegged at several hundred million. 300-400 beds. $125B should get a lot more than 20 hospitals

*****************************************
No worries. I’m sure there are African dictators somewhere out there putting that money to good use!

#75 Not So New guy on 03.14.20 at 3:35 pm

We are going to go through a short period of rationalization.

No, I don’t mean denial, I mean what capitalism does best.

This is why capitalism is superior to central planning. Capitalism can ferret out the need and shift gears to meet it much faster than a government committee can because there is a profit motive. It will also shut down any activity that is useless for the crisis so as to save energy, human capital, and resources.

Free flow of information is more a capitalist thing because ‘the word’ gets around faster through word-of-mouth and media. This actually hurt the Chinese because they were trying to control the message. Had the government not interfered, their people probably would have been self-quarantining in December. Unlike in the west where people heard of the virus and many canceled trips, peripheral business activity, and public events that they deemed frivolous and not economically necessary. I wonder what percentage of people decided to hunker down just based on what they heard in the media? This is a hugely beneficial efficiency. Volunteerism or curtailed spending on behalf of a cause that people deem appropriate

#76 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 3:36 pm

Fake news again, France is closing down all shops, restaurants and cafes. It’s just the flu, it will thin the herd. Anyone knows of stock buying opportunities on CAC40?

Thank god we’re living on the bord next to the most advanced civilization in history of mankind. sheesh

#77 Sold Out on 03.14.20 at 3:37 pm

Heartwarming to see how corporations are pitching in during the s%&t storm:

Whole Paycheck CEO suggests workers “share” their sick days with the less fortunate.

https://www.vice.com/amp/en_us/article/93988v/whole-foods-suggests-that-workers-share-paid-time-off-during-coronavirus?__twitter_impression=true

Timmie Ho requiring sick workers to attend their over-burdened medical clinic full of sick people to buy a doctor’s note, to cover their unpaid sick leave.

https://pressprogress.ca/tim-hortons-workers-need-doctors-notes-to-take-unpaid-sick-leave-during-coronavirus-pandemic/

Shopper’s Gougemart charging double for TP.

https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/03/shoppers-drug-mart-hikes-toilet-paper-and-hand-sanitizer-prices-amid-covid-19-pandemic/

With such sterling examples of corporate citizenship, we should be digging out of this little snafu in no time.

#78 BBD (BarkingBlackDog) on 03.14.20 at 3:44 pm

@#64 sailedaway,

LOL…again.

#79 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 3:51 pm

#63

Socialism is the REAL disease.

I mean the mayor of Seattle has just banned renter evictions, hope they don’t impose that in Canada, I’m planning to make a killing soon on real estate.
Any tips for buying some more ETF’s?

#80 Reality is stark on 03.14.20 at 3:54 pm

At least one person has addressed the real elephant in the room.
The divorce rate is spiking in China.
The virus is the small issue.
As Esther Perel clearly states, a woman’s happiness was fortified by the community. That structure has weakened so her happiness is more solely dependent on YOU!
When you falter (whether within your control or not) they will serve you papers in the modern age.
When you sign a contract you need to be fully cognizant of all the variables. Good luck.

#81 Sam on 03.14.20 at 3:54 pm

Good read

Ryan you defended preferred shares a few weeks back despite their historic performance

Given their performance the last few weeks , is it safe to say these aren’t fixed-income and do nothing to decrease volatility. Actually they decrease returns

(Sorry about it’s performance ,btw)

#82 LearningSchool on 03.14.20 at 4:07 pm

P/E ratio. Why mentioned: 22.xx. why is the difference
Mar 13, 2020 25.71
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table/by-month

#83 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 4:11 pm

Feel free to impersonate or spoof impersonate me if you like, but for goodness sake: please try harder to avoid spelling, punctuation, grammatical or spelling errors.

That’s just uncivilized.

#84 Drinking on 03.14.20 at 4:15 pm

Not sure if this post will actually get posted; my none racist, non extremism, just plain practical posts were rejected; not sure if I am banned.

If my years of reading this blog serves me correct I believe that it is Garths B-Day today; Happy you old bastard; you sure are getting gnarly as your years progresses; remember those younger years where you could not stand people like that? :) I appreciate your efforts, now have a fricken drink of Scotch and just take Bandit for a walk.

Anyways; Costco shares are up 8%! Just saying!!

#85 WUL on 03.14.20 at 4:23 pm

I crossed an item off of my bucket list this morning.

I wanted to experience a Venezuelan grocery store.

Done.

Without leaving Fort McMurray.

#86 espressobob on 03.14.20 at 4:33 pm

Virus whatever with toilet paper fetish is nothing like other evils in life, so why the panic?

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/ebola/drc-2019/

I have suffered hangovers most pandemics would fear even more than the current crisis. Don’t see people dropping in the streets.

#87 Sail away on 03.14.20 at 4:33 pm

#62 Wait There on 03.14.20 at 2:32 pm

Remember it’s not 92% will survive but 8% over 70 will NOT. And the horror of the number of over 75 that will not. When the ICU runs out of respirators, how about you walk down the hall and keep repeating that 92% will survive.

————————–

Then out spake brave Horatius,
The Captain of the Gate:
‘To every man upon this earth
Death cometh soon or late.
And how can man die better
Than facing fearful odds,
For the ashes of his fathers,
And the temples of his Gods?’

— Horatius at the Bridge

#88 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.14.20 at 4:37 pm

LOL at Blackdog for creating a fake account and then laughing at it.

#89 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 4:38 pm

#80 Reality is stark on 03.14.20 at 3:54 pm

Don’t get that eduardo back in here crying about women again. Divorce is good for the legal industry.

Going to make a killing on Monday

#90 Dr V on 03.14.20 at 4:42 pm

78 BBD – care to contribute anything meaningful today? Asking for a friend.

#91 Blog Bunnu on 03.14.20 at 4:53 pm

I just came back from a cruise. Tiny boat. Only 13 guests. I am looking forward to repeat the adventure. We saw more sharks than on wall street. Fantastic wildlife and imposing landscapes. My mum however had quite a time throwing up when the waters got rough and no amount of trans-dermal, oral and intra-rectal gravol could save her. She will not be a repeat customer.

#92 Sold Out on 03.14.20 at 5:01 pm

DELETED

#93 TurnerNation on 03.14.20 at 5:03 pm

We must focus on the macro here.

– Is it only the First World countries being shut down – thus ruining their economies? Or others?
(A goal of Climate Change was to have 1st World countries pay massive sums to 2nd, 3rd ones, thus making us all equal in poverty).
But hey this will work too.

– For our UN-backed post national state what is the plan? More bail-in/bail-outs? Those are expensive. Enter: IMF loan!
And much higher taxes on any merge gains we eke out.

– Nationalization of job/E.I. payments, mortgage payments, State interests in your property ? Or just more debt all around?

– Suspension of democratic process and public protests? Already implemented in Canada.

– Turn off the news and papers it is 100% Fear now. You already know what to do: Eat well, exercise, rest and wash your hands, face and ears often

A population scared will agree to anything, and we will. They know that.

#94 Sail away on 03.14.20 at 5:06 pm

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away. —Philip K. Dick

#95 TurnerNation on 03.14.20 at 5:11 pm

^I know let’s ask the Ministry of Middle Class Prosperity how all this will go down. In retrospect, that announcement – just the elites mocking us – was the greatest Short Sell Kanada signal ever given.

#96 Shawn Allen on 03.14.20 at 5:13 pm

The latest World Health Organization situation report is out. China has 18 new cases and 14 new deaths. That’s higher than the low numbers of the past few days but still indicates very good containment given they had 81,000 total cases. Singapore continues to have a low rate of new cases and South Korea relatively low. Unfortunately the virus has spread to 13 new countries. The number of new cases in Italy is very high at 2547 but down slightly from the previous day which was 2651. Hopefully, the quarantine in Italy will start to pay off with a reduction in new cases in the next few days.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

#97 Piet on 03.14.20 at 5:26 pm

#12 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 11:45 am

#182 Stone on 03.14.20 at 10:16 am
I suspect the birth rate around the world will have increased significantly over the next 7-18 months.

Anyone disagree?
————
Actually, in China the divorce rates are spiking.
—-
It is conceivable that lockdown situations could result in an increase in divorce cases. If one is accustomed to the freedom of being able to leave the family home for many hours each day, it would probably be unsettling to be forced to spend an extended period confined to a small apartment with a spouse whose presence could become oppressive after a few days.

#98 SmarterSquirrel on 03.14.20 at 5:26 pm

Ryan,

You pointed out “First, we need to see a peak in infection rates. According to Johns Hopkins data, cases of new infections in China look to have peaked, however rates in the US and Europe are heading higher. Our hope and expectation is that infection rates will peak in North America and Europe in the spring. The next few weeks and month will be key!”.

The difference between the draconian measures China took of mandatory quarantines vs work from home recommendations happening in democracies may reduce the likelihood that democracies can be as effective as China at shutting this virus down. I know you like charts so check out the charts here showing differences in traffic reduction. https://datatrekresearch.com/mass-quarantines-vs-work-from-home/

Either way this virus will eventually end. Even the Spanish flu that killed millions and started in the spring of 1918 had concluded by the summer of 1919. So covid19 will end as well but North America and Europe might not be rid of it as quickly as China.

#99 Mackenzie on 03.14.20 at 5:47 pm

DELETED

#100 mark on 03.14.20 at 5:47 pm

You might find this useful

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfAxaGsF5ZA

#101 Nonplused on 03.14.20 at 5:59 pm

#44 conan on 03.14.20 at 1:54 pm

“If you make less than 30 bucks an hour you are an employee, where deductions are taken. No more self employed people making basic wages without benefits.
What we have now is out of control and society is about to pay the price.”

——————

California just enacted a law similar to that of which you speak. The result? Most companies severed ties with their freelance workers and now they have no work at all.

As has been proven time and time again governments generally cannot fix things with regulation, they only make things worse.

#102 SOMETHINGS UP on 03.14.20 at 5:59 pm

Is BITCOIN a buy??

#103 Tony on 03.14.20 at 6:04 pm

Re: #73 mark on 03.14.20 at 3:17 pm

They’ll kill the U.S. dollar, April 2021 at the very latest. It’s a suckers’ bet.

#104 crazyfox on 03.14.20 at 6:07 pm

Hi Ryan.

Using P/E ratios seems like a metric not to use at this point… I say this because P/E is rear view mirror and Q1 numbers will likely come in weaker than expected moving the goal posts. So, this investor simplifies it in his mind by trying to predict where index’s will be coupled with some kind of timeline established by predicting the narrative of news cycles.

If I may speak plain (the least I can do, since you’ve done the same), we are looking at a TSX index below 10,000 and a bottom, I’m with Dmitry on this one, some time in May with a… 3.5 month hold average before re-balancing? Some things could change my mind, 2 months is a long time in the markets and some events can still go either way, but that’s how I think it will go.

#105 SHANE GALLANT on 03.14.20 at 6:07 pm

so the average investor will sit and chill but by the time we get in it will be to late since these markets move so fast. I think nextweek will be a big up week for what Trump is doing this weekend.

#106 People Panic on 03.14.20 at 6:07 pm

I have discovered a home recipe that prevents Covid-19! Stay at home and watch CvNN all day! And read the comments section of this blog of course.

#107 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 6:10 pm

Guess I’ll have to rethink my spit-handshake engineering contracts

#108 Tony on 03.14.20 at 6:10 pm

Re: #66 technical analysis on 03.14.20 at 2:45 pm

Without the fake accounting bogus buybacks and 100 percent cost cutting the P/E ratios would be in the mid-60’s under normal market conditions.

#109 Kool Aid on 03.14.20 at 6:17 pm

#66 Technical Analysis… this was the second most expensive market in history.

SP P/E (CAPE) hit 36.45 Jan 2018 and 35.44 a month ago.
that’s HIGHER than 2018, and HIGHER than 1929. only the Nasdaq bubble years 2000 was the market more expensive.

the yield curve inverted last year and everyone here dismissed it. the yield curve has predicted 8/8 recessions. every single one since 1968. this time was no different.

this will be as big a correction as the last two.
the TSX broke a 50 year uptrend line.
the SP500 broke a 10 year trendline.
you’d better pray the SP doesn’t close below the Dec 2018 lows….

————————————————————————————————

Agreed, super expensive market at the top.

Risk is restructuring, so will debt…restructure of balance sheets will be big business in 2020.

My hope is that everyone can work together to mitigate these unprecedented health events of the last many weeks and get through this to a place of some normalcy in the coming months.

If we can NOT avoid a prolonged and perpetual health threats of this nature, then many insolvencies, consolidations, mergers and acquisitions will shape our future “new” normal.

Bear market buy opportunities soon, or not. Good luck to all, take care of your families, pooches included.

#110 Drinking on 03.14.20 at 6:21 pm

#91 Blog Bunnu

Poor mom,lol, I laugh only because years ago I thought that it would be a good idea to take my late mother for her Birthday on a whale watching tour off of Tofino; well, unfortunately, I went through the same experience as your Mom. My poor mother was sick as a dog during the tour due to ocean sickness; did not go over so well, but one of my best memories of my sweet Mom. :) Life is short; enjoy every moment of it!

#111 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 6:23 pm

#83 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 4:11 pm

&

90 Dr V on 03.14.20 at 4:42 pm

—–Be best <3

#112 Nonplused on 03.14.20 at 6:25 pm

#59 Dr V on 03.14.20 at 2:27 pm
40 not first – our new local hospital is pegged at several hundred million. 300-400 beds. $125B should get a lot more than 20 hospitals.

——————–

How’s that going to get Trudeau nominated for a peace prize? The Canadian people are for funding his aspirations, not benefiting from them.

But building the hospitals is only half the battle so $125 billion might only fund 20-40 if you consider the long term cost of operating them, training new doctors and nurses, etc. Still a better investment than whatever crazy ideas Mr. Socks has for the money, even if we don’t need that many new hospitals just yet. Would be nice to get those 4 1/2 hour wait times down to something reasonable.

#113 john duff on 03.14.20 at 6:26 pm

#83 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 4:11 pm

“That’s just uncivilized.”

kettle meet pot?

#114 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 6:27 pm

#96 Shawn Allen on 03.14.20 at 5:13 pm

who data is fake news.

#115 Wally Waffles on 03.14.20 at 6:27 pm

If they called it Jam Tart Cold # 9 no one would have given it a second thought. Sad to say, people die from the cold and flu every year. I’ve lost loved ones. Everyone should be this cautious and wash their hands often, always.
Buying as much as possible before everyone comes to their senses.

#116 akashic record on 03.14.20 at 6:27 pm

#94 Sail away on 03.14.20 at 5:06 pm

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away. —Philip K. Dick

Yes, and it comes from a man who had plenty of experience with this dilemma.

#117 Bobby13 on 03.14.20 at 6:33 pm

And most importantly what is the FED gonna do.

#118 Nonplused on 03.14.20 at 6:35 pm

#63 Howard on 03.14.20 at 2:34 pm

“#13 Don Guillermo on 03.14.20 at 11:49 am
#11 Howard on 03.14.20 at 11:42 am
CMHC just announced a 6-month mortgage holiday. No word yet on whether the feds will also grant a rent holiday for the same period. It’s only fair, right?

**********************************************

What about a holiday for people that own their homes outright? What do they get for being responsible? Oh I know … maybe a free cruise!!

——————————————-

An invoice.

That’s what you get for being responsible in Justin Trudeau’s post-national state.”

——————————–

Just another example of the fact that governments can only make things worse. First, they wanted to pay off student loans with money the took from people who didn’t go to school, now they want to grant mortgage relief with money the took from people who don’t own homes or have mortgages. What’s nest? Universal Basic Income with money they took from the people that are working? Oh wait they floated that idea too.

Pretty much all their ideas involve robbing Peter to pay Paul.

#119 Asterix1 on 03.14.20 at 7:01 pm

G&M still publishing RE garbage non-stop. Carolyn Ireland and Rachelle Yonglai should have their work desks placed at CREA or TRREB headquarters.

“The Bank of Canada’s rate cut could fuel the real estate market amid COVID-19”

GTA prices are still way overpriced. Employees salaries are stagnant, debt levels atrocious and a recession/virus about to destroy job creation, investments and increase layoffs.

Definitely not the time to buy!

#120 Lisa on 03.14.20 at 7:18 pm

This is a reassuring post. Thanks!

#121 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 7:22 pm

#116 akashic record on 03.14.20 at 6:27 pm

‘Yes, and it comes from a man who had plenty of experience with this dilemma.’

PKD or “sail away”?

#122 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 7:25 pm

#107

“Guess I’ll have to rethink my spit-handshake engineering contracts”

or maybe contracts for a few months. You should be fine,

We’re both alpha’s, losing is for losers

#123 Don Guillermo on 03.14.20 at 7:26 pm

#101 Nonplused on 03.14.20 at 5:59 pm

As has been proven time and time again governments generally cannot fix things with regulation, they only make things worse

******************************************
Our current government works tenaciously hard to re-prove this over and over and over and over …

#124 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 7:27 pm

#119 Asterix1 on 03.14.20 at 7:01 pm

Your IP address has been logged. TREB and CREA are sending a hitman your way.

#125 Equitities gurl on 03.14.20 at 7:28 pm

Hi Ryan, first time poster, reading blog for 4-5 years
I only buy stocks. Dec 26th is always Boxing Day and has great sales! Thursday March 12th could be remembered as one of the best Boxing Day sales on stocks for years to come! Why buy etfs? If I was a broker I would for all my clients so they don’t call me up screaming when their stocks drop in half. But at end of day a person will make way more money buying stocks and holding vs etfs. Most people are clueless how stocks work. I’m talking about financials, telecoms, utility’s etc, blue chip stuff. Ryan do you have a portfolio of stocks? I can guarantee your mentor Garth does. Portfolio value looks pretty but to me it’s all about the income! I hope stocks drop below Thursday’s blood bath and I will buy more! Banks yielding 6%! How many etfs yield 6%? People ditch your etfs if you want more money in your pockets!
The gurl

#126 Piano_Man87 on 03.14.20 at 7:34 pm

“Our hope and expectation is that infection rates will peak in North America and Europe in the spring.”

I feel like this sentence alone deserves much more explanation.

#127 Dr V on 03.14.20 at 7:38 pm

55 mke – thank you for the link.

#128 palebird on 03.14.20 at 7:47 pm

#8 Randy

Crypto as we know it is about to be destroyed. If you think not you are very naive. The ECB is going to produce their own electronic currency and eliminate hard currency. Canada, under Trudeau, will probably try the same. Look out below. The USD is still king and is rapidly appreciating or have you not noticed? As long as Trump is in power the greenback will be with us. After him who knows.. Foreign capital is flowing into US markets as the smart money flees Europe. What does that mean? The mother of slingshots for the US market, that’s what.. Canada meh

#129 BBD (BarkingBlackDog) on 03.14.20 at 7:53 pm

@#88 I knew one of the Lost Boys was gonna say that, but sorry, I can’t take credit.

#130 Howard on 03.14.20 at 8:02 pm

#118 Nonplused on 03.14.20 at 6:35 pm
#63 Howard on 03.14.20 at 2:34 pm

“#13 Don Guillermo on 03.14.20 at 11:49 am
#11 Howard on 03.14.20 at 11:42 am
CMHC just announced a 6-month mortgage holiday. No word yet on whether the feds will also grant a rent holiday for the same period. It’s only fair, right?

**********************************************

What about a holiday for people that own their homes outright? What do they get for being responsible? Oh I know … maybe a free cruise!!

——————————————-

An invoice.

That’s what you get for being responsible in Justin Trudeau’s post-national state.”

——————————–

Just another example of the fact that governments can only make things worse. First, they wanted to pay off student loans with money the took from people who didn’t go to school, now they want to grant mortgage relief with money the took from people who don’t own homes or have mortgages. What’s nest? Universal Basic Income with money they took from the people that are working? Oh wait they floated that idea too.

Pretty much all their ideas involve robbing Peter to pay Paul.

——————————————————-

I actually wouldn’t be opposed to Universal Basic Income as long as it meets two criteria:
1) It replaces and consolidates existing welfare programs
2) It is truly universal; no claw backs from the “rich” people funding it all

#131 Blackdog on 03.14.20 at 8:11 pm

@111 Huh?

I’m starting to think that sailedaway could actually be SailAway. He’s self-absorbed enough to pretend to be someone pretending to be him.

Definitely NOT me, but I’m cool with taking the credit if the LostBoys want to give it to me!!

#132 Keith on 03.14.20 at 8:16 pm

Taiwan wins the gold medal for virus policy and response.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/what-taiwan-can-teach-world-fighting-coronavirus-n1153826

#133 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 8:30 pm

A few thoughts on the last few weeks: there are plenty of shills and charlatans in the index mix who are propped by indiscriminate index/ETF buyers. It’s instructive to see which companies maintain strength, drop minimally, or immediately roar back from a general drop. Think Walmart, Costco, Berkshire, CN, even oil. Interestingly, Kraft Heinz- Kraft dinner, baby.

The hot new thing crashes hard. Anybody join the socially-conscious investing kick promoted during yoga toga classes? Haha. Sorry.

Be ready to move fast and decisively. Giant drops of fundamental needs will be followed by giant recoveries. Or maybe not, but that’s the game. And the recoveries happen way before the public sentiment. The Corvid Crisis has been done for days in the markets.

Who knows what will happen next? In any event, it’s never a bad idea to avoid discretionary products that rely on social cachet for success. Like organic foods, essential oils, raw meat dog diets, etc.

#134 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 8:45 pm

#131 Blackdog on 03.14.20 at 8:11 pm

Nope. it ain’t him ;-)

In time of incertitude some spread smiles some,
see #133 end up being a parody of themselves.

Anybody got some interesting and valid links to up to date research on vaccine/treatments?

Damn, I forgot, any links on buying/selling opportunities?

Uppa! Uppa! Uppa!

#135 Rip VanWinkle on 03.14.20 at 9:04 pm

Just got up from a nap. What did i miss?

#136 spoon_man on 03.14.20 at 9:15 pm

This virus is old news by now. Gold bugs have limited swing to the upside from now on. Covid-19 has united rivals/enemies in a single front. The war on this thing is global. The world economy as we know is at stake. The system won’t die here. That won’t be allowed. And yet I hope leaders focus on the next great battle. Its not eradication of the virus no, its eradication of the fear that has settled and turned markets highly irrational. The fear has landed hard and both govs and media have to mobilized fast and furious as soon as good news start emerging regarding improvement on the health front. And they are going to have to 10X the good news as typically humans react much stronger to the bad ones. The quick recovery of the global economy relies on such strategy. Be safe but project as much confidence as possible. Gonna have to sound at the level of a new Messiah….

#137 MDQ on 03.14.20 at 9:25 pm

Thanks Ryan for your thoughts.

Other readers commented on your P/E analysis.
I find this metric completely useless at this point, and explains why the market is so volatile.

The “E” portion of this metric is completely unknown at the moment, as no one has a clue of what the ramifications and impact this would have. We can be sure that airlines, hotels, cruises and everything related to food & services will be in negative territory.

Next round of “E”arnings would be interesting.

#138 Dr V on 03.14.20 at 10:02 pm

130 Howard – a lot of people confuse the basic/minimum income systems proposed. I agree that “universal basic income” is the fairest, simplest
system and still provides an incentive to work.

BBD – please consider and provide a thoughtful and
reasoned opinion.

#139 Smoking Man on 03.14.20 at 10:09 pm

Anatomy of bear markets.

Doctor said your going to die… Well she might be right….

Cool with it…

Love all freaks on here…

#140 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 10:19 pm

#77 Sold Out on 03.14.20 at 3:37 pm

Heartwarming to see how corporations are pitching in during the s%&t storm

————————-

What do you suggest, SO? With no money coming in and no way to pay workers, where, exactly, is a company to go?

A solution would be greatly appreciated. Maybe employees could be paid with unicorn farts? Please, do weigh in.

Here’s another:

Westjet planning 50% layoffs:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5497037

#141 TrendIsYourFriend on 03.14.20 at 10:23 pm

Good post Ryan.
Although regular reader (never posted before), I look forward to every Saturday because Garth’s posts are predictable :) but his minions (with trophy wives) write the stuff I am more interested in, sorry Garth.

“The gurl”‘s post about stocks made me respond here. I don’t know if this is TheBottom and I don’t want to find out with my own money. I am OK paying more if the probability (charts, techicals) is on my side. I guess that’s the point Ryan wanted to make. They manage other people’s money and that’s a different game than all of us retail traders/investors.
Tells me the Turner boys are good at it and demonstrate their fiduciary duty.
That is why, I guess, they play ETFs instead of stocks, or God forbid options (maybe selling covered calls to cover that Porsche lease payment).
Don’t want this look like bragging but Feb 20th I moved all my company’s RRSP money (you know, stuff I have no control over, Sunlife MFs) into money market. Why? Charts. Breadth indicator I like to follow to set my bias bull-vs-bear is NYAD cummulative. When it makes negative divergence with NYSE price, I take action, well depending on other art of the chart things too.

So, did I buy the dip despite NYAD nosediving, BPSPX close to 0 etc? Nope.
We had 12 years of bull market. Now, we are setting up a trading range that may (probability wise) last several years. We will have rallies and corrections following them. If I am correct, my RRSP strategy will be, after getting back in those MFs with 1% or more MERS, to stuff new contributions into the money market fund and deploy it on the dips.

My trading account blossomed the weeks Feb 24 and Mar 2 beacuse I went into puts, many names, as they started breaking support. Past week – not a single trade! Well, except collecting long dated otm puts on VIX on those VIX rips, will see how it goes.
Now, this week? Sitting tight and, as Ryan said, watching the charts.
Haven’t even bought the toilet paper.

#142 BCWally on 03.14.20 at 10:35 pm

I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m interested in what will change after the pandemic.
As an example cheap small rented offices in suburbia rather than a large office downtown now that everybody discovered modern internet bandwidth makes this entirely possible. Say goodbye to rush hour and a great way to reduce our carbon footprint.
I’m seeing massive inflationary pressure on this recovery with all that new money around.
Great article Ryan.
This could be a great opportunity while we are all chilling to think about the changes post covid-19, especially cultural. Then invest accordingly.

#143 Reza Saiedi on 03.14.20 at 10:37 pm

“2) the Hang Sang/Shanghai breakout;”
It’s spelt “Hang Seng”, not “Hang Sang”.

#144 The Real Mark on 03.14.20 at 10:48 pm

“#119 Asterix1 on 03.14.20 at 7:01 pm
G&M still publishing RE garbage non-stop.”

Yup pretty sad what’s come out Canada’s remaining news outlets in the post-2013 Canadian RE peak era.

And with Chinese travel basically shut down, good luck with that “Chinese with suitcases of money” scam.

Canadian RE at hyper-inflated prices is done. Put a fork in it. Not only will reversion to the mean, ie: depreciated construction costs occur, but there will probably be some overshoot to the downside.

#145 BBD (BarkingBlackDog) on 03.14.20 at 10:53 pm

Re:
#134 sailedaway on 03.14.20 at 8:45 pm
#131 Blackdog on 03.14.20 at 8:11 pm

Nope. it ain’t him ;-)
————————————-

Will the real sailawayplease, please stand up!

With all the ‘self-isolating’ to come (@SailAway ;)), I can hardly wait to read the comments section of this pathetic blog. Thanks Garth.

#146 JSS on 03.14.20 at 10:53 pm

I was at home all day. No symptoms. How many times can one watch Christmas Vacation on DVD ?

#147 Sally Ringer on 03.14.20 at 11:07 pm

I’m buying every time my dividends cough up ten grand. Good market, bear market , no diff. Done it for decades. I’ve seen worse than Corona, think it’s way overhyped, except for a sincere empathy for any who list lived ones, who are always seniors or otherwise compromised.

But more stocks, collect more cash, buy more stocks, it’s a virtuous circle. It’s not the end of the world. Just had a friend recover, said it was like a really bad flu. Went to a big social event with lots of touching and swapping spit. Don’t do that. A lot of pros are buying.

I smelled a rat when Trudeau and all his little Health Dept. minions did a 180 the day before last and our ball squeezer PM and his witchy socks suddenly fell in line with contagion prevention measures around the world. In fact I was right and called it as I said that Trudeau got the riot act read to him during his call with Trump and realized his silly act was getting the border closed….immanently if he didn’t start acting like an adult. Here’s the details of Trudeau’s shame.

https://vancouversun.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/ontario-rolls-out-10-million-ad-campaign-to-boost-public-awareness-of-covid-19/wcm/d4ce566d-2819-4df5-8dee-91112cd63431/

Now here’s another fact. Trudeau’s self isolation is phony…a ruse to reposition himself. Sophie was in UK…no contact with Little Potato for months. Separated . It’s like he’s desperate to find another costume to distract the public. It’s a Trudeau Corona Sham and shame on the opposition for letting him pull it off. No doubt proof will come out soon.

#148 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 11:10 pm

The irony!
Disneyland in Shanghai is opening again.
Xi:2, Prez:0

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 11:13 pm

China is sending equipment and experts to Italy.
Xi:3, Prez:0

#150 Is it over? on 03.15.20 at 12:01 am

The current prediction is stock markets will bottom at peak infection rates in the US. Then that will be the buying opportunity of the century!
But the economy will need to recovery and earnings will need to improve.
It might take a very long time for the economy to recover.
Not sure any more how long but that part has not started yet.
I am selling into the ups for now. Cash is king until the people stop panicking. And everything I see is empty grocery store shelf’s, so this panic is not over.
Sad to say but gun shortages are next.
I just cannot imagine the future.

#151 Deplorable Dude on 03.15.20 at 12:06 am

Some cautious optimism…have we already had the Covid19 peak….and missed it thinking it was just flu? Especially if China knew about it back in November…it’s been here for a while….we just thought it was a very bad flu season.

Check out WA State flu stats here. Massive jump at end of 2019.

https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1239026004191883266?s=21

#152 Spac on 03.15.20 at 12:13 am

#60 CDN Preferreds! on 03.14.20 at 2:28 pm
We know you are a big fan Ryan! Are you buying CDN preferred? Can they actually get any cheaper? They are way below 2008!

Cash flow for whisky!
=================================
Buy constantly, never stop. Sweet, sweet losses and impairments so that you don’t pay taxes on what you gain in other investments.

Plus you’re doing your part to help the profits and balance sheets of bank & financial co’s by supporting free money given to them via preferred share raises. Profits which flow to the equity portion of your portfolio (well, the droppings that may or may not flow to you after the C-class takes the cream from the top).

#153 NFN_NLN on 03.15.20 at 12:20 am

Their loss. Just as happened in 2008. We are a poorer, less diversified, more financially fragile and worse-prepared society as a result of such emotional investment decisions (and statements). – Garth

I remember reading tulip.com 2010 and hearing about people that pulled out at the bottom of the 2008 market. They got destroyed.

#154 Nonplused on 03.15.20 at 12:28 am

#130 Howard

“I actually wouldn’t be opposed to Universal Basic Income as long as it meets two criteria:
1) It replaces and consolidates existing welfare programs
2) It is truly universal; no claw backs from the “rich” people funding it all”

——————-

I like number 1) but the problem is no matter how they do it the so-called rich are going to have to fund this thing so they will be paying in several times what the government gives back to them.

It’s just another one of those great ideas that looks good to grade 2 students when they draw a flower with crayons but just can’t actually work. I mean why not give everybody a universal income of $100,000 a year? Nobody would have to work! What a great idea! It doesn’t take too much thinking to realize these sorts of programs can only work if the amounts are token if they work at all.

Also I am not sure how universal income would interact with low paying jobs. I think people wouldn’t work unless the wages they could command not only significantly improved their lives over UBI but also compensated them for all the new taxes they would have to pay.

UBI is a great idea and if there were unlimited funds that required no work I would be all for it. But unfortunately the idea is more or less the same as when you pay a child an allowance but don’t demand any chores. Not only are you out of pocket but you have to shovel your own damn sidewalk while the kid plays video games. It just won’t work and can only make things worse.

You can have your “great depression” type projects to get people working building roads and dams, and maybe that is also a waste of money, but at least you end up with roads and dams. But paying people for nothing? Nope. It is a theory that is great on the drawing board but in practice is devastating.

If we are going to have UBI, the people who pay more in taxes are going to have to vote on what they want the net UBI recipients to do. I’d vote to have my lawn mowed and sidewalks cleared of snow, maybe more bikepaths and campgrounds, and perhaps they can clean my house. But wait I already pay people for that so UBI already exists if you want it. Market solutions are always better than government solutions, which are usually no solution at all.

#155 itsoverfolks on 03.15.20 at 12:40 am

Go to the city/state/etc tabs folks. Tell me with a straight face we are only headed for a “recession” lol

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRbPuAyJy74UmbF6kLXFGXDk2eX3N6zvRLzxPamG8FAA3E-SVqMOMSIht-eYEF_4qrNGOJuPbDjTsPD/pubhtml#

#156 Gary on 03.15.20 at 12:54 am

Victor Adair, a trader from Vancouver summed up this market as follows
“Right now if your trading you are trading psychology”I hope you have a good shrink.

#157 SoggyShorts on 03.15.20 at 1:06 am

#78 BBD (BarkingBlackDog) on 03.14.20 at 3:44 pm
@#64 sailedaway,

LOL…again.
********
“Hahahahah! Sail Away likes making money and sees opportunities! Can you imagine?! I mean how ridiculous is it to spend your time doing anything other than whinging, virtue signalling, being offended….and uh… laughing at successful people?
Garth, please ban everyone who isn’t a total failure, they make me feel icky.”

#158 short horses on 03.15.20 at 2:37 am

Ryan, just wanted to add my thanks for a great article, and for the sober reflection this blog regularly provides while the mainstream media is preoccupied with fanning the flames.

#159 Tony on 03.15.20 at 3:33 am

It seems like the PPT wants DOW 25,000 but won’t buy above 25,000. So we should have all the traders selling the rips to the DOW 25,000 level over the next couple of weeks.

#160 SoggyShorts on 03.15.20 at 7:41 am

#142 BCWally on 03.14.20 at 10:35 pm
I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m interested in what will change after the pandemic.
As an example cheap small rented offices in suburbia rather than a large office downtown now that everybody discovered modern internet bandwidth makes this entirely possible. Say goodbye to rush hour and a great way to reduce our carbon footprint.

******
The whole concept of “downtown” seems rather dated to me. Let’s face it: that meeting could have been an email.
If somehow your team NEEDS to be face to face, what advantage is there to downtown? Do you also NEED to be close to other offices?
The worst is the ghost DT like Calgary- after 5pm lights out, no food, nothing.

It would be great if in the aftermath of carona half of those (imo)useless DT offices turned to condos and the ground floors into stores and restaurants- an actual living DT!

#161 maxx on 03.15.20 at 8:08 am

@ #5

Your instincts are correct.

In addition to the current predicament, even on premium cruise lines, people are, I’m sorry to say, generally pigs. They very often completely ignore standard protocol for preventing the spread of illness. They don’t wash their hands prior to or as they enter dining venues and they handle food with complete disregard for others, picking stuff up and placing it back on service trays when they change their minds.

You can’t cure slobs. The people I feel truly sorry for are the service staff, having to wallow in this. A casual glance at a stateroom when the door is open for cleaning will tell you everything you need to know.

Wait a while and when you do cruise, keep your eyes open and re-clean your stateroom with 90+% alcohol upon boarding.

#162 Phylis on 03.15.20 at 8:35 am

So, wrt rates falling, how many pref recalls can we expect to happen? I would expect near term resets would just reset. Which ones are candidates for recalling?

#163 akashic record on 03.15.20 at 8:57 am

#139 Smoking Man
We go when we go. Don’t let a doc schedule it for you.
We love you too.

#164 Penny Henny on 03.15.20 at 9:42 am

Virus for klimate.

#165 Howard on 03.15.20 at 9:42 am

#154 Nonplused on 03.15.20 at 12:28 am

——————————-

I don’t believe in slippery-slope arguments. And obviously $100,000/year would be an absurd amount for UBI. What would be a more appropriate amount? I don’t know, I’m not an expert in the field. It depends how much we already spend on existing welfare programs. By shutting those down and consolidating them into a simple UBI, taxpayer expense may actually be less than under the existing system.

But this is all theoretical. I know that the relatively well off will never be permitted to take part in this – just like the federal NDP is proposing universal dental coverage, but only for people who earn under $70,000/year. No incentive to succeed in modern Canada.

#166 Sold Out on 03.15.20 at 9:57 am

#140 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 10:19 pm
#77 Sold Out on 03.14.20 at 3:37 pm

Heartwarming to see how corporations are pitching in during the s%&t storm

————————-

What do you suggest, SO? With no money coming in and no way to pay workers, where, exactly, is a company to go?

A solution would be greatly appreciated. Maybe employees could be paid with unicorn farts? Please, do weigh in.

Here’s another:

Westjet planning 50% layoffs:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What do I suggest?

1. That corporations not expect low paid staff to subsidize even lower paid staff out of their own pockets.

2. That corporations not further burden the healthcare system with unnecessary demands for doctor’s notes when an employee needs to access UNPAID sick leave.

3. That corporations not price gouge during a national state of emergency.

That’s all.

Chill, Daisy Mae. It’s just a pandemic. Go home, read some L. Ron Hubbard or something. If it gets too scary, maybe dig out your circa 1986 Tom Cruise Top Gun poster, and your aviator sunglasses.

I hope you’re not developing a fever; you’re not making much sense.

#167 Chi cargo line ups on 03.15.20 at 10:32 am

Five hour waits at Chicago airport,
If that’s a incubation for Convid then I would say thousands will get it next week

Went to Victoria airport and there was not a soul just empty.

#168 Ryan Lewenza on 03.15.20 at 10:34 am

Equities gurl “Hi Ryan, first time poster, reading blog for 4-5 years. I only buy stocks. Dec 26th is always Boxing Day and has great sales! Thursday March 12th could be remembered as one of the best Boxing Day sales on stocks for years to come! Why buy etfs? If I was a broker I would for all my clients so they don’t call me up screaming when their stocks drop in half. But at end of day a person will make way more money buying stocks and holding vs etfs. Most people are clueless how stocks work. I’m talking about financials, telecoms, utility’s etc, blue chip stuff. Ryan do you have a portfolio of stocks? I can guarantee your mentor Garth does. Portfolio value looks pretty but to me it’s all about the income! I hope stocks drop below Thursday’s blood bath and I will buy more! Banks yielding 6%! How many etfs yield 6%? People ditch your etfs if you want more money in your pockets! The gurl”

Where to begin with this. First, we invest in ETFs that hold equities so we’re buying stocks, just not individual stock holdings. Second, all the data proves your statement that investors will make more money in stocks is wrong. 80-90% of professional money managers underperform their benchmarks. These would be some of the best investors out there (many are still terrible, trust me) and they can’t even consistently beat the TSX or the S&P 500. Now your right that if your all stocks you may do better than our 60/40 portfolio but then you have to deal with a lot more volatility. Third, almost all my personal money is in ETFs and the same portfolio our clients are in. Fourth, Garth doesn’t own stocks. I would know, I manage his investment portfolio. At Turner Investments we invest our own money in the same strategies/portfolios as our clients. Fifth, there are ETFs out there that provide a 6% yield and were adding to it right now. Lastly, my phone is ringing off the hook right now of investors who own just stocks and have seen their portfolio/net worth take a huge dive as they never considered risk when building out their portfolios. So yeah we prefer ETFs. – Ryan L

#169 Ryan Lewenza on 03.15.20 at 10:47 am

short horses “Ryan, just wanted to add my thanks for a great article, and for the sober reflection this blog regularly provides while the mainstream media is preoccupied with fanning the flames.“

Thank you! We don’t have all the answers and just like everyone else we’re trying to figure out the duration and severity of this “act of god”. We really don’t have a good comparable for this pandemic so it’s an “unknown unknown” as Rumsfeld once famously said. But what we do know is 1) it’s not as doom and gloom as the media is portraying and 2) we’ll ultimately get through this and life will return somewhat to normal once this virus is contained. But thank you for your comment as we really are trying to help readers/clients navigate through this tough time. – Ryan L

#170 Sail Away on 03.15.20 at 11:08 am

#166 Sold Out on 03.15.20 at 9:57 am

What do I suggest?

1. That corporations not expect low paid staff to subsidize even lower paid staff out of their own pockets.

2. That corporations not further burden the healthcare system with unnecessary demands for doctor’s notes when an employee needs to access UNPAID sick leave.

3. That corporations not price gouge during a national state of emergency.

———————————-

Start by actually reading the links you posted rather than finding a headline you think supports you and immediately cutting/pasting.

The articles don’t say what you think they do.

Go ahead and read them. I’ll wait.

#171 Sail Away on 03.15.20 at 11:28 am

#166 Sold Out on 03.15.20 at 9:57 am

———————–

I’ll help you SO. The answer to all three of your suggestions is:

They don’t. Read the article you posted.

Now that your suggestions are satisfied, are you happy? If not, why not? Is it because corporations can only be evil and never helpful? Are you a person whose sense of self worth requires someone oppress you?

So many questions.

#172 Dr V on 03.15.20 at 11:38 am

154 Nonplused

“But paying people for nothing? Nope. It is a theory
that is great on the drawing board but in practice is
devastating.”

What do you call OAS? EI? Welfare? GIS?

“I’d vote to have my lawn mowed and sidewalks cleared of snow, maybe more bikepaths and campgrounds, and perhaps they can clean my house. But wait I already pay people for that”

Now we’re getting’ to it. And those people would get
UBI just like you and me. The trick will be tweaking the
whole system to minimize the leaks. Remember, something like 40% of Canadian families pay no net tax.

Instead of closing your mind to the whole thing, just suppose it was thrust upon you and think how would
you make it work best?

#173 oh bouy on 03.15.20 at 11:49 am

interesting bit of news from the Guardian.

German newspaper Welt am Sonntag has reported that US president Donald Trump has sought exclusive rights to a vaccine for the coronavirus which is being developed by a German-based company, CureVac.

The report, which quoted unnamed sources, said Trump had offered large sums of money to German scientists working on the vaccine, and that the Germany government was working to prevent the US procuring it on this basis.

#174 Dr Talc on 03.15.20 at 11:53 am

All the CFR members who are voluntarily losing money will be compensated by taxpayers. Dinosaur newspaper media will have add revenue from governments. A transfer of wealth.
Corporate fascism meets medical martial law.

#175 Dogman01 on 03.15.20 at 12:00 pm

#44 conan on 03.14.20 at 1:54 pm

“start changing rules and regulations so we are not so weak and helpless”

—————————————————————————————–

I have been thinking the same thing, in Calgary there is a hub-bub as the Flames are laying off their Part-time low paid service staff with no perceived “compassion”, while we all know the Players keep getting paid and are all heading to their summer homes.
The basement dwelling service staff –well tough luck.

Too many Canadians now must live precariously, our median standard of living has simply gone down the toilet. (while the pie has gotten much bigger)

We need a Min Basic Income, the new economy simply generates wealth but not jobs.

#176 Dogman01 on 03.15.20 at 12:07 pm

Minimum Basic Income, our new economy simply generates wealth but not jobs.

– You eliminate CPP, OAS, GIS, EI and Social Assistance. – you will achieve simplicity and significant savings with that move.
– Replace all with Min Basic Income system
– Remove the stigma

The people I have encountered whom do not have wealth and “won’t work” typically have mental health problems or addictions and are largely unemployable. I don’t attach much significance to the “Lazy” canard that comes up when Min Basic Income is discussed.

#177 sailedaway on 03.15.20 at 12:15 pm

#166 Sold Out on 03.15.20 at 9:57 am

NO. NO. NO

if corps start doing that people will start seeing them as being nice and might keep them in mind after this fake chinese virus.

Dude, I’m short selling timmies, aritzia and a few others who are keeping in mind the interests of investors vs interest of clients.

#178 sailedaway on 03.15.20 at 12:19 pm

Been thinking (damn)

US starting to do paid sick leave under Trump, free fake virus tests etc. Is the lad of the free becoming the land of the commies? I don’t want Wall Street to turn into Havana :-(

Sanders must be banging is head in the wall of his Vermont cottage right now. Fake Republican doing real commie stuff in the white house. Ah.

PS:

Listening to Enya’s Orinoco Flow right now, love the lyrics

#179 G on 03.15.20 at 12:50 pm

FYI: Be safe, knowledge is power.

2 links. These two Dr. have been putting out good info videos from the start. Some with practical steps you can use to stay safe. Including how to Hand wash well, and zinc & D might be helpful, and why.

Fox news today, short and sweet 3min
Dr. John Campbell March 15
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1t67o28Jr3k

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 36: Flatten The COVID-19 Curve, Social Distancing, Hospital Capacities 10min
MedCram – Medical Lectures Explained CLEARLY Mar 13
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vww1nIIoqmw

#180 Sail Away on 03.15.20 at 12:58 pm

#173 oh bouy on 03.15.20 at 11:49 am
interesting bit of news from the Guardian.

German newspaper Welt am Sonntag has reported that US president Donald Trump has sought exclusive rights to a vaccine for the coronavirus which is being developed by a German-based company, CureVac.

The report, which quoted unnamed sources, said Trump had offered large sums of money to German scientists working on the vaccine, and that the Germany government was working to prevent the US procuring it on this basis.

—————————-

Oh yes, that’s probably true. The ‘unnamed sources’ is a clue.

Trump probably secretly flew to Germany and visited the lab wearing a trench coat and fedora, with bags full of $ labeled ‘Weinerschnitzel’

#181 sailedaway on 03.15.20 at 1:17 pm

#171 Sail Away on 03.15.20 at 11:28 am

“so many questions”

Stop withering, just maximise profit and relax.

#182 Sold Out on 03.15.20 at 1:19 pm

#177 sailedaway on 03.15.20 at 12:15 pm
#166 Sold Out on 03.15.20 at 9:57 am

NO. NO. NO

if corps start doing that people will start seeing them as being nice and might keep them in mind after this fake chinese virus.

Dude, I’m short selling timmies, aritzia and a few others who are keeping in mind the interests of investors vs interest of clients.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I know, it’s TSLA that I’m really worried about. What are they down, now? 40%? And reliant on the good graces of the masters of a command economy that probably isn’t too worried about how many luxury automobiles they can pump out right now.

Maybe we should start a Go Fund Me page for Elon.

#183 oh bouy on 03.15.20 at 1:29 pm

@#180 Sail Away on 03.15.20 at 12:58 pm
#173 oh bouy on 03.15.20 at 11:49 am
interesting bit of news from the Guardian.

German newspaper Welt am Sonntag has reported that US president Donald Trump has sought exclusive rights to a vaccine for the coronavirus which is being developed by a German-based company, CureVac.

The report, which quoted unnamed sources, said Trump had offered large sums of money to German scientists working on the vaccine, and that the Germany government was working to prevent the US procuring it on this basis.

—————————-

Oh yes, that’s probably true. The ‘unnamed sources’ is a clue.

Trump probably secretly flew to Germany and visited the lab wearing a trench coat and fedora, with bags full of $ labeled ‘Weinerschnitzel’
—————————————–
meh, both outlets reporting it are reputable.
i could understand your argument if it were an infotainment channel like fox news reporting it.

#184 The other Lebowski on 03.15.20 at 1:42 pm

#128 palebird

If you are going to parrot Martin Armstrong’s opinions at least give him credit instead of passing it off as your own.

#185 Stone on 03.15.20 at 1:47 pm

#176 Dogman01 on 03.15.20 at 12:07 pm
Minimum Basic Income, our new economy simply generates wealth but not jobs.

– You eliminate CPP, OAS, GIS, EI and Social Assistance. – you will achieve simplicity and significant savings with that move.
– Replace all with Min Basic Income system
– Remove the stigma

The people I have encountered whom do not have wealth and “won’t work” typically have mental health problems or addictions and are largely unemployable. I don’t attach much significance to the “Lazy” canard that comes up when Min Basic Income is discussed.

———

Wealth actually does create jobs, just not the kind most people want or have the intellectual aptitude for. Wealth demands value and therefore will gravitate towards jobs that add value.

Discussions that occur at the senior management and executive level In most companies revolve heavily around how to eliminate low value work/activities and refocus resources/energy toward high value work/activities. it’s pretty simple.

If most people can’t get on board with that type of thinking and allocation of capital, well, they can enjoy their gruel.

As for CPP, OAS, GIS, EI and Social Assistance being consolidated under one banner, I’m not opposed to it however, it needs to be low enough to provide an incentive to the majority of the population not to want to be eligible for it though.

#186 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.15.20 at 2:13 pm

Geez, gas is CHEAP in Nova Scotia.

89.1/lt vs 129.9/lt in Van

AND nice and sunny in NS.

#187 jess on 03.15.20 at 2:29 pm

…”This, at the expense of every single person that had ever tried to live a prudent and responsible lifestyle working for a living trying to get buy the honest way.”
===========
product flippers :
how about the guy and his brother who got into their trucks and started buying up whole shelves of hand sanitizers and cleaners in tenn. check out his t shirt
On March 1, Driving around Chattanooga, Tenn., they hit a Dollar Tree, then a Walmart, a Staples and a Home Depot. At each store, they cleaned out the shelves.
He has 17,000 bottles of hand sanitizer. Amazon shut down his site. boo hoo
=================

The stores should buy them back for half price

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html

#188 jess on 03.15.20 at 2:44 pm

#138 Dr V on 03.14.20 at 10:02 pm

perhaps this speaks to that :

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/otisrtaylorjr/article/A-homeless-couple-moved-into-a-4-million-15039635.php

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45rw2N7sOqg

So quiet in san fran you can hear the birds!

#189 sailedaway on 03.15.20 at 2:52 pm

#185

“If most people can’t get on board with that type of thinking and allocation of capital, well, they can enjoy their gruel.”

My kind of guy. True Canuck.

I’m actively planning to move my biz out of Canada. Don’t wanna pay for gruel eating losers that don’t have the intellectual capacity to understand what really matters in life. We’re NOT in this together, rising tide is only for yachts not kiddie pools. Need to separate real men from the herd.

Gonna make a killing on the market tomorrow morning. Fake local media reporting pseudo testing tent outside the hospital, paid with MY monies. It’s a UN plan to keep us at home folks. Stay invested.

#190 Entrepreneur on 03.15.20 at 3:46 pm

I would like to know why the experts are not mentioning which convid-19 strain, the deadly one (that killed the young doctor) or the milder one, regular flu symptoms? Maybe this will come the fear. And just use other tissues or newspaper if have too.

Also, some good points on how to wash the hands but to me I would caution on too many times, don’t want to erase the natural oils, a thought.

I think it was a lab virus too as why all the hype?

#191 Will markets rebound? on 03.15.20 at 4:07 pm

I understand all the logic to holding and waiting.
Everyone cites past experiences as a prediction that stocks will come back.
I agree markets are oversold.
But……..
Why are people selling, panic! And cash!
Now we know many sectors are going down
And we will go into a recession.
So why should the spiral not continue?

I am not a doom and gloom I am just trying the best strategies to minimize risk for the next 6 months.
We cannot contain public panic we have just started to see the worst in people
Sorry for rambling but all these graphs and saying history will repeat itself, the economy will alway recovery I am sorry but sugar coating a hold strategy just does not sit well with me.
In my mind it will only get worst as sector by sector tumbles and then what
Rinse and repeat.
I truly hope the worst is over maybe another month of wild swings but then earnings will start to come out and remember we are all inter connected.

#192 jess on 03.15.20 at 4:12 pm

The US president had offered the Tübingen-based biopharmaceutical company CureVac “large sums of money” to gain exclusive access to their work, wrote Die Welt.
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According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US, “but for the US only”.

The German government was reportedly offering its own financial incentives for the vaccine to stay in the country.

The German health minister Jens Spahn said that a takeover of the CureVac company by the Trump administration was “off the table”. CureVac would only develop vaccine “for the whole world”, Spahn said, “not for individual countries”.

Flu viruses are fundamentally different from coronaviruses in that they are constantly shuffling their genomes, which means they rapidly morph from one strain into another – that’s why flu vaccines are needed annually.

Coronaviruses tend to be genetically fairly stable and so scientists don’t expect a sudden shift in the mortality rate of Covid-19. But the question of whether coronavirus will disappear, reappear in waves or simmer in the background as an endemic illness still remains to be answered.

outliers -biphasic.?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/japanese-woman-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-for-second-time

#193 Phylis on 03.15.20 at 5:51 pm

#186 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.15.20 at 2:13 pm seeing under 2.00 usd per gallon, like less than 70cents per L on the wayto florida….

#194 Tony on 03.15.20 at 6:17 pm

This time around the stock market was the most overvalued of all time in America including 1929 and 1873. The fake bull market will likely produce a fake bear market as well all planned by the central bankers the Fed and the plunge protection team. The smart money will be selling the rips to the DOW 25,000 level. In an unrigged market the DOW is barely worth one-tenth that.

#195 Tony on 03.15.20 at 6:21 pm

Re: #191 Will markets rebound? on 03.15.20 at 4:07 pm

Oversold!? The U.S. major indexes are 6 to 10 times what they should be due to the last 11 years of total rigging and manipulation.

#196 Tony on 03.15.20 at 6:31 pm

Like I posted on this blog a day ago and two days ago they’d kill the U.S. dollar soon unlike 2008. Soon came very soon Zero Hedge article.

Fed Disaster: S&P Futures Crash, Halted Limit Down; Gold, Treasuries Soar After Hisotric Fed Panic