Jungle juices

The storm rages, but the week ends with hope. If you came here today looking for investment advice, fugeddaboutit. No change. Things are moving too fast. Most people should do zip. The bold might trim bonds and nibble equities. The cowboys yesterday were scooping up banks, oils and airlines with both hands.

The news is overwhelming. Covid emergency in the US. Drive-through virus tests in Wal-Mart parking lots, run by Google. Canada moving closer to sealing off borders. Maple interest rates plunging another half-point. Wow. Ten billion for small business. Next week Ottawa starts paying your rent, buying groceries. Maybe your mortgage, too. Society is shutting down by the hour. In a Burlington Costco lot they were fighting over parking spots on Friday. Fighting. Literally. The MSB continues unabated. Whipped up by sensationalist media, folks are doing the opposite of what they should. Hoarding. It guarantees shortages. So much for the collaborative, sharing economy we’ve all heard about. The animal instincts are at play.

Anyway, things are unfolding as advertised.

Big package from the Fed. Huge moves by Ottawa, freeing up liquidity. The Germans say they will paper everything with money. Canada has a fat stimulus package. CBs everywhere are ramping up economic stimulus. Tax cuts coming in the US. Worker support programs in European countries. Fat rate cuts as we move towards 0%, and the next trip down in the US could be a full percentage point. Trump looking and sounding presidential. Stocks markets roaring their approval. Soon we will have bailout plans for the airlines, tourist industries and more.

Short-term, Covid is winning. It’s turning people into fools. Long-term, the bug doesn’t stand a chance.

So when China went down, so did the lobster business. The big boats ended up moored and idled off NS as exports and prices crashed. But now that’s ending. China has defeated the virus. The seafood supply chain is being restored. This is a glimmer of what’s to come. And that is a full recovery, so long as our leaders make these wise choices – and stay on the job.

As my myriad of critics have pointed out, I’m no infectious disease dude. But I do know numbers. So when I look at a chart like this, I can see what’s coming. You should, too.

The world has 140,000 cases, of which 71,000 are recovered. Globally (7,700,000,000 people) there are 59,200 active cases. In China (1,340,000,000) new cases have ended. So far about 5,000 people have died. The infection rate in China turned out to be .00005% of the total population. (So why is Canada’s health minister saying “30% to 70%” of us could be infected?)

Well, we also know 80% of the souls who get the bug end up with (basically) a mild cold. Old geezers are more prone to complications, but even people over 70 have a 92% recovery rate. So is this really justification for fisticuffs in the parking lot? Storming Costco and the grocery store? Hoarding so your neighbours go without? Selling perfectly good assets when they’ve temporarily declined?

Remember the threat to your family is not medical. It’s economic. We’re heading into a recession, thanks not only to the bug but because of oil. The impact of that will be muted by governments and CBs as interest rates are crashed and cash falls from the sky. But it will still be felt, especially in the West. Be confident the oil war will end when the Saudis and Ruskies have had enough, just as the virus will flare and fade. (Seems like big strides are also happening with a vaccine.)

Meanwhile Trump has declared a national emergency, and gone globalist as part of an international effort to rescue the planet’s economy. One of Covid’s little gifts has been to underscore what insanity it is to believe countries can seal themselves off from one another without financial collapse and the destruction of national economies. When supply chains break, so do we. The populists are dream weavers.

Well, it’s Friday. The markets are wall-to-wall green. The news rocks. The toilet paper animalism continues. But the actions we forecast are taking place.

So turn off the news this weekend. Stop coming to this blog, I implore you. We’re gonna make it.

 

189 comments ↓

#1 James on 03.13.20 at 4:25 pm

Well, we also know 80% of the souls who get the bug end up with (basically) a mild cold. Old geezers are more prone to complications, but even people over 70 have a 92% recovery rate. So is this really justification for fisticuffs in the parking lot? Storming Costco and the grocery store? Hoarding so your neighbours go without?
_____________________________________________
This is how it all started.
The wrinkly’s will remember.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8fhwdG5otY

#2 Dave on 03.13.20 at 4:28 pm

So all we care about is real estate….whats going to happen in BC?

#3 Howard on 03.13.20 at 4:28 pm

Wall St and Bay St “capitalists” want their bailout moolah!

Any bets on when we’ll see interest rates above 1.0% again? Before or after the roaring 20s end?

#4 Habitt on 03.13.20 at 4:28 pm

Great post again. Thanks for your sanity.

#5 Fortunate one on 03.13.20 at 4:29 pm

Thank you Garth. Your wise words are the perfect way to start the weekend. Blessings to you and Dorothy. Be well and snuggles to Bandit.

#6 not 1st on 03.13.20 at 4:29 pm

1. Virus – no more deadly than the regular flu and even less deadly than a cold in most cases, wont hit the numbers they say, gets backstopped by the summer and social distancing, vaccine on tap for fall flu season.

2. Most stocks down 30%, raw commodities down 10%, fed puts in trillions in liquidity, central banks around the world do the same, 1pt rate cut and delayed demand.

3. I predict a rubber band snapping in about 2 quarters after the summer. You will see new highs in the market in about Sept 2020.

4. Inflation comes roaring back. Interest rates rise.

#7 Was down in old Mexico ... on 03.13.20 at 4:31 pm

talking to a fellow from Maine who said he was buying lobster for a buck a pound when the airlines shut down for 911. He filled his freezer …

#8 Jim on 03.13.20 at 4:32 pm

Oil prices are rising again…Phew!

We need India and China to increase their populations by 1,000% this year. This will increase demand for oil to get it back to early 2010 levels.

#9 not 1st on 03.13.20 at 4:32 pm

Fearful buying toilet paper and hoarding pasta.

Smart money is queuing up to refi and buy equities.

Oh and Trump MAGA 2020, for certain. Biden gets the nursing home treatment.

#10 Caledondave on 03.13.20 at 4:34 pm

I still have lots of expired 3M N95 masks from the Sars epidemic. I think the Government of Ontario have lots as well. I really can’t believe that they expire…it must be some kind of marketing scam.

I got lots of Amarone wine kits going in the basement. I have to order on more from Costco than I am all set to ride this out.

Good luck to everyone out there.

#11 The Wet One on 03.13.20 at 4:38 pm

Honestly Garth!

Too many falsehoods in here to not say something.

1. “Society is shutting down by the hour.” – Nope. It’s reacting. That reaction may be throwing you off kilter, but it’s just reacting to a bona fide emergency. It’s not shutting down.

2. “Whipped up by sensationalist media” – Eh, maybe. I don’t know what media you read, but it is a sensational time. Something like this hasn’t been seen since 1918. If reporting the truth is sensational, well, you may be correct on this, but I don’t think so. Again, I don’t know what media you follow. The media I follow isn’t sensationalistic. I’d say it tries to be as honest as it can manage. The fact that people react like idiots to the truth is on the people, not the media.

3. “Trump looking and sounding presidential.” – FFS Garth!!! Really!?!?!?!?

4. “China has defeated the virus.” – Nope. It’s just slowed its advance. There is no vaccine. Only those who’ve been infected and cleared the virus are immune. They’ve only slowed its advance. No more, no less.

Eh…

That’s enough for now.

Anyways.

Have a good weekend.

#12 Sam on 03.13.20 at 4:46 pm

You somehow love the China results but never mention they shut down their entire economy to get those results.

And Canada is going to get the same results …

1 do NOTHING that China did
2. ???
3.
4. get the same results as China
5.
6. profit.

Brilliant.

thanks to all the fools that convinced governments “flu kills more people every year, DO NOTHING”.

#13 Sam on 03.13.20 at 4:47 pm

1 do NOTHING that China did
2. ???
3. <magic>
4. get the same results as China
5. </magic>
6. profit.

#14 animalinstinct on 03.13.20 at 4:49 pm

garth would it be a good time to buy stocks? I’m not trying to hit them bottom. thanks

#15 miketheengineer on 03.13.20 at 4:50 pm

Garth et al:

Please pray for Italy.

Thanks

#16 Sold Out on 03.13.20 at 4:52 pm

Ah Vancouver, where citizens are proving cleanliness is next to douchiness, every day.

Google the guy in the story; colourful history.

https://www.thestar.com/amp/news/canada/2020/03/12/were-hustlers-amid-coronavirus-fears-this-couple-has-made-more-than-100000-reselling-lysol-wipes.html?__twitter_impression=true

——————————————–

Trump: “I take no responsibility” when asked who is responsible for the covid19 testing failure. Fitting epitaph for his life, business dealings, and presidency.

#17 Shirl Clarts on 03.13.20 at 4:54 pm

Against crowdies prediction, I thought better not wait until after the weekend to buy. This could be the bottom.

So today, I threw down a full stack of High Society on the big banks. 50/50 split between RY and TD.

My returns today on just those 2 stocks – 6.11% and 12.94% respectively. Overall return 9.51%.

Someone tell me, are we in Bear or Bull territory. I guess it doesn’t matter. If something good looks cheap, buy it.

#18 Sold Out on 03.13.20 at 4:54 pm

“It’s now easier to get an AR-15 in the US than a covid19 test.”

Random Twitter guy.

#19 Stoner on 03.13.20 at 4:55 pm

I think your assumption that it has ended in China is wrong. The reduction is a result of extreme social isolation. One society resumes normal activity, the spread will start going up again.
The only way this truly ends is
– Either everyone in the world has been infected and has immunity to this
– Or we have guaranteed zero people capable of spreading this

#20 boomer remover on 03.13.20 at 4:56 pm

“Short-term, Covid is winning. It’s turning people into fools”

turning a few into plant fodder.

but, thanks to this blog, capitalism is saved!

No comment that does not match the official party line shall be published!

This blog should not publish anything stating that Canadian are jerks like everybody else!

We are perfect!

#21 Paperless on 03.13.20 at 4:57 pm

So for those responsible consumers who own their homes and don’t have any mortgage, will they get some free money as well?

#22 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 4:57 pm

#258 Dups on 03.13.20 at 2:59 pm

By the way Gov workers get to work from home, use their sick days without questions and good support during this outbreak.

Private companies jerk us around…Where is the legislation and support in times of need for the hard working people?

————————-

Depends on the firm. Our employees have flexibility- they can choose whether or not to come in, 10 days paid sick leave, remote work with full VPN if they choose, many weeks of gov’t EI if they actually do catch the cold.

The gov’t EI is a nice touch because otherwise the axe falls when revenues drop.

A full month or two shutdown with employees on EI would be very pleasant… COVID has already put much US $ in my pocket through APT; maybe it can also give a stress-free holiday. The cold that keeps on giving!

#23 Toronto_CA on 03.13.20 at 4:58 pm

Bought another GBP 5k of high dividend oil stocks today as it was down instead of up. Dollar cost averaging, that’s the sensible way. Although don’t buy individual stocks, kids.

I am loving all my 20s/30s friends who recently started investing in the last few years. They have never experienced anything like this. It’s so gratifying to watch them freak out.

#24 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 03.13.20 at 4:59 pm

Even the Tulips are coming up out here on the Northern
Plains
spring is spring we have nothing to do with it.
That is such a good thing to know

#25 Randy on 03.13.20 at 5:02 pm

https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/fhuu6i/the_false_positive_results_for_covid19_are_over/ Why kind of testing gives and 80% false positive ?? Must be socialized medicine …

#26 Linda on 03.13.20 at 5:06 pm

Love the little hats on the dogs, though from their expressions I think they are less than thrilled. More like ‘see what we put up with from our human’ looks:)

Meanwhile, still shaking my head over the madness. Off to enjoy the sunshine!

#27 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 5:06 pm

#21 “paperless”

paperless as in no more TP?

“responsible consumers” ahhhh lovely. let’s ignore those that maybe can’t afford a home becomes they have been ill, or had family issues right? MAGA MAGA MAGA

#28 Neo on 03.13.20 at 5:06 pm

CAD is $0.72. Up form yesterday. If I buy S&P 500 ETF today and CAD rises 30% how can I win?

Canadians take it coming and going in the investment world.

#29 Kevin on 03.13.20 at 5:11 pm

“Stop coming to this blog, I implore you.”

What would we do without you, Garth?

#30 trailor_sailor on 03.13.20 at 5:14 pm

How about dumping $$$ into a 60-40 snoozer (think .4 ZAG, .4 XAW, .2 VCN) the last couple weeks??

late last week buy…ouch

today’s buy…we’ll see

Curious what all the Very experienced Investor People think….single-stock gunslingers the lot of you. Who has the courage to actually evaluate the value prop on a real live company these days?

#31 JSS on 03.13.20 at 5:16 pm

I have a vacation booked to Mexico early next week. Tried to cancel the flights on Westjet. For the last two days, can’t get through their 1-800 lines. I’m pressured to cancel this vacation, because it sounds like the feds want to limit international travel. Otherwise, I’d love to just go. Have a corona on the beach.

#32 baddog on 03.13.20 at 5:16 pm

Friends are panicking at the paper loss on their RRSP’s. I said, “You’re looking at this the wrong way. It’s going to come back. You need to think of this as a buying opportunity.” Very few people have the nerve to buy when everyone is scared and yet that is exactly the smart thing to do. CPD has a dividend yield of 6.48% right now. Couldn’t resist. Bought some equity ETF’s as well. Thank you Garth for this awesome blog:)

#33 Toronto_CA on 03.13.20 at 5:16 pm

#28 Neo on 03.13.20 at 5:06 pm
CAD is $0.72. Up form yesterday. If I buy S&P 500 ETF today and CAD rises 30% how can I win?

Canadians take it coming and going in the investment world.

____________

Aren’t there currency hedged ETFs that aim to track the funds performance irrespective of currency swings? They kind of suck and I don’t recommend the, but they’re out there.

#34 Stoner on 03.13.20 at 5:16 pm

Timeless wisdom from yes minister
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak

#35 The Wet One on 03.13.20 at 5:20 pm

Oh.
That’s the other thing.
The rate cut was 0.75% not a half point.
That was the other falsehood.

M’kay. Now I’m done.

Cheers!

Down 0.5% to 0.75%. – Garth

#36 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 5:23 pm

#18 Sold Out on 03.13.20 at 4:54 pm

“It’s now easier to get an AR-15 in the US than a covid19 test.”

Random Twitter guy.

—————————

Chill. It’s just a cold.

#37 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 5:24 pm

Spring appeared. It’s like the climate regulates itself.

#38 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 5:30 pm

#35 “Chill. It’s just a cold.”

You should say that to a few thousand families in Italy right now. Sure they’ll love your kind words.

Hoping the arrogance will subside when the death count starts to mount.

#39 just snootin' on 03.13.20 at 5:31 pm

In agreement with your summation, Mr Turner, excepting maybe a point or two, but the gist is a reasonable prognosis. Nobody wants the radical change a disease brings and we’ll go back to what we were doing if people help to bust the vectors.

A good parallel to this is what its like surviving forest fire season every year and Canadians do well in these challenges. China was into mix and mingle behaviour during their holiday when this illness broke out. We have more information now, and we are going into spring break with a freakout/don’t touch me attitude (helpful). Let two weeks roll around and reaccess. Hopefully people find time for self reflection and chilling. At the all clear, let us visit our shoppes and boutiques once again.

Aside, I am looking for moral/financial backer to persue a bramblebush toilet paper co. I have acres of it to prune, some purple loose strife. Strong. Patent potential. Only need 1 ply.

#40 Figmund Sreud on 03.13.20 at 5:37 pm

Be confident the oil war will end when the Saudis and Ruskies have had enough, just as the virus will flare and fade.
__________________

Here you go, … “Ruskies” explains why they killed the Saudis proposed oil deal:

… “We cannot fight a falling demand situation when there is no clarity about where the bottom (of demand) is,” Sorokin said. He attends all joint meetings with OPEC with his boss Alexander Novak and gave Reuters his first interview since last week’s meeting.

“It is very easy to get caught in a circle when, by cutting once, you get into an even… worse situation in say two weeks: oil prices would shortly bounce back before falling again as demand continued to fall. …

“We see the (current) market situation as predictable yet unpleasant… Market and market forces will regulate it fairly quickly,” Sorokin said, adding he expected to see the first signs of lower oil production activity at costly projects worldwide in 4-6 months.

Exclusive: Russia to OPEC – deeper oil cuts won’t work
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-exclusive/exclusive-russia-to-opec-deeper-oil-cuts-wont-work-idUSKBN20Y2TJ

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#41 Barb on 03.13.20 at 5:41 pm

HAPPY BIRTHDAY ON SATURDAY, CAPTAIN GARTH!

Thank you for what you continue to do for us all.
It’s appreciated.
By the smartest ones…

#42 GrumpyPanda on 03.13.20 at 5:44 pm

Food basics looks like a typhoon must be coming. And they don’t belong in this hemisphere. Too bad your staff probably worked hard writing tomorrow’s blog. Personally I would love a dog picture with a comment like: What are you doing here? I told you to go away!

#43 Piano_Man87 on 03.13.20 at 5:46 pm

“The infection rate in China turned out to be .00005% of the total population. (So why is Canada’s health minister saying “30% to 70%” of us could be infected?)”

Been wondering this myself… China did employ draconian measures to halt the spread of this. But Korea didn’t, and their case numbers are on the decline.

Our office manager bought some disinfecting wipes yesterday. Almost got in a fist fight with another guy who was trying to buy them all. This is in Saskatoon. We have zero confirmed cases here.

#44 Thank you on 03.13.20 at 5:46 pm

Thanks Garth I like all your posts this past week, I will admit I was really stressed. I did not sell, but I borrowed and bought.
Anyway it’s not over but thank you for prevailing calmer sage advice.
My TFSA down 20,000 at the bottom up 12,000 today one day oh my gosh. Glad I did not sell!
Have a great weekend,

#45 MicroGX on 03.13.20 at 5:47 pm

Thanks, another welcomed post. I’m curious if banks have to follow the full rate cut/cuts or can do a partial, if at all…… Is there anything binding them or can they be like…meh.

They set their own primes. Not sure this one will be passed through fully. – Garth

#46 Ray Skunk on 03.13.20 at 5:49 pm

Garth,

Does this weeks absurdity mean that Wild Bill goosing the Cap Gains rate will be off the table now, in your opinion?

#47 mark on 03.13.20 at 5:50 pm

Is Suncor (SU.T) a value trap with price and moving away from fossil fuels globally????

#48 AR on 03.13.20 at 5:56 pm

Totally agree with post #11.

Here are some more numbers. China acted early and drastically. US has let this simmer for weeks without testing in a misguided effort to minimize the situation. Charts gonna go straight up for awhile. Death rate between 2-5%. Higher than Spanish flu 1918.

And Trump sounded confused and inept. Can he even read?

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

#49 J. Canuck on 03.13.20 at 6:04 pm

“So why is Canada’s health minister saying “30% to 70%” of us could be infected?”

Because he’s an idiot? To specify such a wide range is really just a shot in the dark. Better to say nothing.

#50 The other Lebowski on 03.13.20 at 6:05 pm

# 35 “Chill. It’s just a cold.”

Indeed. Fewer people in the US have died from the Corona virus than from testifying against the Clintons.

#51 not 1st on 03.13.20 at 6:06 pm

#28 Neo on 03.13.20 at 5:06 pm

In what scenario do you see the loon rising 30%? Pls enlighten us.

The BoC dropped rates by a full point so dollar support is gone. The only thing keeping it up is the Canadian economy.

I don’t have to explain where that is going do I?

In 1995 under Chretiens watch the dollar was 64c. I suspect Trudeau can beat that mark.

The US injected liquidity right into the system. Canada backed some more business loans. I will let you guess which will be more effective.

US will be rocketing out of this in 6 months.

#52 dosouth on 03.13.20 at 6:06 pm

The Russians helped Trump win the election, markets manipulated again during the Chinese created Covid 19 and both are going to come out of this as a test balloon to further types of “manufactured crisis”

It’s a cold, a flu but look at what Social media and the younger generations are making of this. This story is not going to end well except for the money makers pulling the strings.

No need for all out wars anymore, just screw with economies and less expensive faster in results and less deaths….

#53 WEXIT on 03.13.20 at 6:07 pm

I was a cowboy yesterday, I was buying. It will be a long road, but will be great.

#54 not 1st on 03.13.20 at 6:09 pm

So Trudeau considering closing the border with our biggest trading partner, the US, all while flights from Iran, China and Italy land every day.

I have news for mr Trudeau, the yanks arent desperate to get in here. But maybe Canadian snowbirds might.

#55 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 6:11 pm

#38 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 5:30 pm

————————-

#35 “Chill. It’s just a cold.”

————————-

You should say that to a few thousand families in Italy right now. Sure they’ll love your kind words.

Hoping the arrogance will subside when the death count starts to mount.

————————-

Sure. How’s this:

‘Dear Italy,

I know you are concerned about this Corona thing. Don’t be too worried; it’s just a cold. Chill.

There were 697 Diamond Princess positive cases. Of these, 328 showed no symptoms at all and most others exhibited mild cold symptoms. Seven died, all people over 70, all high-risk.

Let’s be honest: if you make it to 70, you’ve had a pretty good run at the game. Nobody makes it out alive.

Vivere per il giorno!

Sincerely,
Sail Away’

#56 earthboundmisfit on 03.13.20 at 6:15 pm

Thank you for this one, big time, Mr. Turner. Dammit man, I wish you still had a leading role in the management of this country’s fiscal and monetary policy.

#57 The Wet One on 03.13.20 at 6:17 pm

Oops.

Quite right on the half point cut to 0.75%.

My bad.

Heh.

#58 Juve101 on 03.13.20 at 6:26 pm

“The bold might trim bonds and nibble equities”

In other words, rebalance! Should be done rain or shine.

Thanks Garth for your calming words, great way to start the weekend.

#59 the Jaguar on 03.13.20 at 6:28 pm

Funny how some folks like to trash ‘oil’ until its fortunes result in a very hard slap up the side of their heads. Just sayin….
Had to make some re-arrangements on a airplane ride today and just want to put out a big thanks shout out to WestJet. A great company with a big heart. Book your next flight on WestJet.

#60 Sold Out on 03.13.20 at 6:29 pm

#36 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 5:23 pm

Chill. It’s just a cold.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Riiiiiiggghhhttt. That’s why all international travelers returning to Canada are being asked to self-isolate on their return.

We’re still in the denial phase, evidently.

#61 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 6:31 pm

#42 mark on 03.13.20 at 5:50 pm

Is Suncor (SU.T) a value trap with price and moving away from fossil fuels globally????

—————————

Mark, this might be an interesting exercise:

If you are near a window, look out.

1. Do you see anything that uses, is derived from, or in some way made use of, fossil fuels?

2. Do you see anything that used to use, or was derived from fossil fuels, but has now transitioned to newer technology?

3. Think

#62 CAD Confusion on 03.13.20 at 6:33 pm

#28 Neo on 03.13.20 at 5:06 pm
CAD is $0.72. Up form yesterday. If I buy S&P 500 ETF today and CAD rises 30% how can I win?

Canadians take it coming and going in the investment world.

____________________________________________

How does the CAD go up when oil is at $32, gold collapsing and we cut rates 1% in 9 days with only .75% until we go to zero?

Living on borrowed time over 67 cents and maybe lower…tick tock, tick tock….

#63 People Panic on 03.13.20 at 6:35 pm

I’m not sure we have enough data to say for sure what this Covid virus really is. The numbers we get are delayed and imprecise, which they have to be due to the very nature of things at this stage.

Problem 1 is that there is a difference between “confirmed”, “suspected”, and “possible” cases. A case cannot be “confirmed” until the person has been tested, and right now there is a global shortage of test kits. As test kits become available, we could see confirmed cases explode. However that could also cause the fatality rate to plummet.

Problem 2 is the long incubation period this thing has. People can be walking around with this thing for weeks and not have any symptoms, yet they are contagious. So that means the population of asymptomatic cases could be growing exponentially and nobody knows they have it yet. But until they can get to the point where they can test large numbers of people who are asymptomatic it is impossible to know how many people are currently infected, and we are weeks away from having enough test kits to do such a study. This long infectious but asymptomatic phase is what makes this virus so much harder to detect and contain than SARS was.

Problem 3 is that it is highly contagious. All you need is one asymptomatic case to get into a school and go undetected for a couple of weeks and literally most of the student could have it after a couple of weeks.

Problem 4 is not so much the fatality rate, most people survive, it is the rate at which it spreads, which has the potential to run the hospitals out of beds (and also medical practitioners). So for this reason slowing the rate of transmission is critical even if we all get it ut survive eventually. The important part is that we don’t all get it at once and line up at the hospitals like people are currently lining up at Costco and fighting over parking spots.

So, out of an abundance of caution, doing things like closing schools and cancelling sporting events and Trump rallies makes good sense. Even travel restrictions to areas with high case loads make sense. At least until we get a good sense that this thing is headed towards containment.

My son reports that less than half the class was in attendance today. But I can understand why, in the last days the school board has turned off all the water fountains (why I am not sure, the bathrooms are still open), cancelled all field trips, cancelled assemblies, cancelled after school sports, confined lunch and recess to the classroom, cancelled the spring band concert, and more. Scouts Canada have cancelled all activities for the rest of the season. Most youth sports are indefinitely cancelled. Universities are cancelling classes. Even the NHL, NBA, NFL, XFL, and MLB are all cancelled. Pro golf continues but with no fans (why anyone wants to watch golf I don’t know but now those who do must watch on TV). Some churches are even closing their doors so you can’t even pray that this thing goes away. Everything is cancelled. Even Disney Land is closed. The movie theaters, vacation flights, and cruise ships are all near empty. This is only a partial list.

My expectation is that in 3 or 4 months this thing will pass and we’ll all be laughing at ourselves for how much toilet paper we bought. But for now, if nothing else you have to respond to how everyone else is responding even if you don’t have any fear of the virus. I have newly minted a phrase to describe this I call “the toilet paper dilemma”. The toilet paper dilemma is in short the idea that if everyone is hoarding toilet paper you also need to get some before it is all gone or you will be wiping with a wet cloth because you couldn’t get any. In a perverse way of thinking that means if everybody else is doing something stupid you have to too, whether you think it is necessary for people to behave this way or not. In some ways I guess it derives from similar instincts to FOMO. It is hard to go against the herd, even if the herd has no idea where it is going.

#64 Attrition on 03.13.20 at 6:38 pm

#55 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 6:11 pm

Oh man, just home run after home run. Love it.

#65 S.Bby on 03.13.20 at 6:43 pm

Here’s a good website to keep up to date with virus developments:

http://www.covid-19canada.com/

#66 Dolce Vita on 03.13.20 at 6:44 pm

“So when I look at a chart like this, I can see what’s coming.”

No you can’t because it hasn’t come yet.

You are 2 wks or so behind Italia. From infectious disease people:

https://i.imgur.com/PeApAGJ.png

Still, I admire your pluck, can do and unsinkable Molly Brown attitude. And, bad news for the lobsters but good for the fishermen.

Good to read what Canada Gov’s are planning…all pages out of Italia’s aid package to its citizens and businesses. Like Macron said the other day, in as many words, “we are following Italia’s lead”.

About time Gov’s prepare and begin to help their people and businesses long before you know what comes.

——————————-

On a happier note, while Canadian’s ravage the toilet paper aisle, duke it out in mall parking lots, etc., Italia (unscripted, with cabin fever) today decided to spontaneously sing instead, a sampling:

From Milano:

https://video.repubblica.it/edizione/milano/coronavirus-ed-il-giorno-verra-a-milano-tutto-il-palazzo-canta-il-mondo-di-jimmy-fontana/355835/356402?ref=twhv

and again Milano (Milano city song and Volare):

https://video.repubblica.it/dossier/coronavirus-wuhan-2020/coronavirus-la-tromba-che-commuove-milano-suonando-o-mia-bela-madunina/355815/356382?rss&ref=twhr

Salerno:

https://video.repubblica.it/edizione/napoli/salerno-il-condominio-canta-l-inno-di-mameli-per-reagire-all-emergenza/355797/356363?ref=vd-auto&cnt=3

and last, but not least…Bologna’s Bob Dylan:

https://video.repubblica.it/dossier/coronavirus-wuhan-2020/coronavirus-a-bologna-la-canzone-sulla-quarantena-improvvisata-alla-finestra/355809/356376?rss&ref=twhr

There are many,many more. Why we will remain IL BEL PAESE and that was a taste of LA DOLCE VITA, COVID be damned.

—————————–

-Good luck Canada. Pray the projections are wrong. When your testing hits Italian levels, won’t you be surprised…same with the US. But, you are not there yet. You will be.

Hope it’s not so…

#67 Trojan House on 03.13.20 at 6:45 pm

So there was this back in October, a couple of months before the actual coronavirus outbreak began:

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/about

Coincidence?

#68 Westcdn on 03.13.20 at 6:51 pm

I sit on my hands despite being released from purgatory. A fellow I listen says market bottoms do not happen on a Friday. I think this CV19 reactions are over the top. True it is something not to be ignored but the people who are most at risk (like me) should be responsible for their health – sounds cruel but hey we have had a good run. It is not hard to take the appropriate steps until summer.

I have been punished (again) with my investing. That is fine as long as the income continues and I can wait for a recovery. With this latest BoC rate cut, I wait to see if RBC will pass it onto me. My fingers are getting itchy. I see bargains to be had but I do get things wrong.

My coworkers taunted me with the lumberjack song. Okay buddies… you will pay.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=lumberback+song&qpvt=lumberback+song&view=detail&mid=4AF5D2C866B3DC20A2F94AF5D2C866B3DC20A2F9&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Dlumberback%2Bsong%26qpvt%3Dlumberback%2Bsong%26FORM%3DVDRE

#69 AGuyInVancouver on 03.13.20 at 6:55 pm

#9 not 1st on 03.13.20 at 4:32 pm
Fearful buying toilet paper and hoarding pasta.

Smart money is queuing up to refi and buy equities.

Oh and Trump MAGA 2020, for certain. Biden gets the nursing home treatment.
– – –
Just an academic question: what is it like to be so delusional?

Trump’s minimizing the virus and blundering around, boasting how well he understood everything just revealed him to be the charlatan many of us always knew he was. There were a lot of Fox viewers regretting their choice of a carny huckster for POTUS after his sad performance of the last week. He’s Fired!

#70 MF on 03.13.20 at 6:56 pm

I enjoy the optimism. It’s a breath of fresh air. One of the best parts of this blog.

But let’s be real. This is just beginning. The stats out of China are fake like always. No one should believe them.

Every expert I have heard speaks of caution. There are too many variables and unknowns to get a handle. The situation is very fluid, and like Garth said, will last for months if not years. But it will subside.

Nobody thinks this is the end of the world. No question we will defeat this virus. But there will be casualties. There already are. People taking precautions are not just doing it for themselves, but also for their older relatives who may be at risk, or their younger children who are at risk as well.

Remember all it takes is a mutation and this becomes a young person’s disease like 1918 was. All the caution is 100% warranted, and I’m glad our government is responding as it is.

The economy is going to get hit hard. It’s fundamentally based on human interaction and that is now being limited. Stocks will fall further since earnings and jobs reports will expectedly be ugly. A stock rebound will occur for sure, at some point, and we will look back at this as a buying opportunity guaranteed.

The rate cuts and liquidity injections or whatever are a joke. More stimulus given to an already over stimulated system. A clearly stressed financial system with its back against the wall just trying to prolong the inevitable by fighting the last war. Rates getting reeeeeeal close to zero. When big institutions are at risk like they were in 2009 we are powerless. No surprises there though. Unemployment coming. Housing to get creamed.

MF

#71 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 6:56 pm

#55 sail away.

yes, please sail away.
Here is real data for people like you:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200313-sitrep-53-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=adb3f72_2

Italy total deaths 1016

Keep worrying about your etf’s and real estate. keep on gloating about making money…. Out of all people making comments I see maybe 2 who show 1 sign of concern for others.

At this point my dear Mr Turner, and as an ex-politician and responsible adult I sincerely believe you should close down comments on your blog.

#72 akashic record on 03.13.20 at 6:57 pm

#54 not 1st on 03.13.20 at 6:09 pm
I have news for mr Trudeau, the yanks arent desperate to get in here. But maybe Canadian snowbirds might.

What are they still doing in the US?

#73 boomer remover on 03.13.20 at 6:58 pm

#60 ‘We’re still in the denial phase, evidently.’

We have one other commenter with a brain, a soul and a heart, we might create a club.

#74 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 7:00 pm

I encourage immediately all people on this blog with coughs and fever to visit people who say

“this is just a cold.”

Please do it, we need to free up some housing asap.

#75 North Shore guy on 03.13.20 at 7:01 pm

What will happen to lower mainland real state?
I think writing is on the wall..
BoC cut interest rate twice by quarter points due to oil prices that lead to 2016 mania
Now they have cut twice again but by half points and more to come..
Listings will remain low as people aren’t listing out of fear of Covid.. this will put further pressure on prices as more people compete for limited listings
Any downturn in economy in BC will be shadowed by the growth FIRE industry and so economy will be fine here
3 times so far this year we have been rejected as someone put a much higher offer than us
Any good listing is getting sold within 3 days..
This is the state of the market around a million mark.. donno what is happening further up but all this people who bought condo/townhouses in last couple of years are clearing 200k to 300k easily.. and they only know 1 place to put up those gains.. Yes in the detached houses
But I guess BoC will increase rates at some point in future based on data and solid growth.. we should be back to 1.75 by 2030.. maybe..
I used to make fun of people who liked NDP but I think they are the only ones who can bring affordability to this market.. Hoping on BoC is a waste of time

#76 Norm Bertrand on 03.13.20 at 7:06 pm

Are we officially in a Panic-demic yet?

#77 Cto on 03.13.20 at 7:07 pm

Yup, it’s getting better. Stock markets will take 2 or 3 years to recover, and we’ll be back on track. Investors will muddle through.
There will also be a small recession, but real estate, especially condos will be the big winner in this!
With rates at 0, there going to shoot to the stratosphere!
This was the best thing that could happen to real estate investors, by far…!

#78 Caledondave on 03.13.20 at 7:11 pm

Happy Birthday Garth on March 14! Your chiseled abs are perfect! Now get working on those Glutes.

Have a fine scotch and enjoy the sunrise.

#79 Dolce Vita on 03.13.20 at 7:12 pm

#55 Sail away

Carissimo Sail Away:

When you’re in lockdown, get back to me. And you will be with that attitude.

Ciao d’Italia (free in clear by the time it’s just starting to ramp up in Canada & they’ve actually tested more than 10 people in the entire country…then again, no need, someone will notice intensive care overflowing, like here now).

PS:

Prepare you sheet music, parka and space heater for your balcony sing along.

#80 Sydneysider on 03.13.20 at 7:12 pm

I am off to the UK for my hols on Sunday, despite disapproving tuts from BC’s nanny state.

Talked to the old man over there today about toilet paper fights in the stores. He mentioned that he first encountered toilet paper rolls during WWII, when his family was turfed out of the farm cottage to the more affluent owner’s house, to make space for evacuees. He did not know what it was for and used to tear off sheets for drawing

Even in the 1960s, I recall that toilet paper was thick heavy duty stuff, much like tracing or greaseproof paper.

#81 Darren Smith on 03.13.20 at 7:13 pm

Just some facts guys.The TSE called back then now called TSX today was back on February-5-1998 was 6,762.63 today March-13-2020, it is 13,716.33.

This is only a 4.652% after annual compound rate of return. It is equivalent to an only 3.25% annual rate of return for 22 years 37 days. This is really bad for stock market, equity index returns. This does not include annual fees and dividends which is probably awash or maybe an extra 0.75% rate of return per year.

Dow Jones 8,129.71, S&P 500 1,006.90, Nasdaq 1,680.44 back in February-5-1998 today Dow Jones 23,185.62, S&P 500 2,711.02, Nasdaq 7,874.88 today, March-13-2020.

It looks like long term buy and hold did not work very well the last 22 years+. Interesting is oil did not do much better since February-5-1998, 16.37 U.S. per barrel compared to today 31.73 per U.S. dollar.

Japan Nikkei back in February-5-1998, 16,882.62 today March-13-2020 17,431.05, not much change, a really tiny gain. FTSE U.K. was 5,595.80 back in February-5-1998 today March-13-2020 5,366 actually lower.

The Canadian dollar versus U.S. was 69.11 February-5-1998 today now 72.43 Canadian to U.S. dollar. It is not much higher after 22 years 37 days later, March-13-2020.

The big winner through the 22 years and 37 days of main crisis and turmoil from Asian contagion, 911, many recessions, 2007-2008 global financial crisis, meltdown etc. etc. gold 300.00 per U.S. troy ounce February-5-1998 but today March-13-2020, 1,529.84 U.S. per U.S. troy ounce.

Also, interest rates have fallen off a cliff, bond yields for example Canada 30 year February-5-1998 5.73%, today March-13-2020 1.33%. Bond prices have exploded upwards and is the bigger winner too.

Canada 2, 10 were 5.11%, 5.38% back in February-5-1998 today, March-13-2020 0.53%, 0.85%. By the way all this information is from my newspaper Financial Post February-5-1998 holding my hands as I speak.

You ignore dividends and rebalancing. Rookie mistake. – Garth

#82 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 7:14 pm

#63 peoplepanic

good thinking, indeed hope we all laugh in a few months.

For those who believe in data and science and not ‘hearsay’.

The data out of China and South Korea, adjusted for when it started match. including diminishing trend after effective measures. We can choose to deny that what China says is false, but we probably can’t deny data from South Korea which is a very advanced nation (does tech stuff, not just oil and hockey)

#83 AR on 03.13.20 at 7:15 pm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Daily updates here. Check out Italy and Iran. New cases today… China controlled it. Other countries. Not so much.

#84 Figmund Sreud on 03.13.20 at 7:15 pm

Supplemental to post #40:

Eight days that shook the oil market — and the world

How a squabble between Saudi Arabia and Russia led to ‘the nuclear version of a price war’

https://amp.ft.com/content/c9c3f8ac-64a4-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68?__twitter_impression=true

Anyway, most interesting: I machine translated a Russian version of Reuters’ article, … this one:

https://ru.reuters.com/article/russiaFeed/idRUKBN20Y2TL-ORUTP

Big chunk – but important – is missing from previously posted English version. Here it is, the missing chunk:

“In his opinion, the price level of $ 45-55 per barrel is equilibrium and fair, it will allow investing in projects and ensuring replenishment of production. Production costs in Russia, including operating and capital costs, are at the level of $ 9-20 per barrel, depending on the project.

Russian oil producers feel quite tolerant at the current price of a barrel of oil of 2,100-2,500 rubles, Sorokin said.

“The price in the region of 3.000 rubles per barrel allows us to feel much more at ease, but at the current price we feel quite confident,” he said.”

FWIW,

F.S.

#85 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 7:23 pm

#79 @dolcevita

Keep safe, I have a colleague in Italy, everything in lockdown. Another colleague in the UK who won’t be able to visit Italy anytime soon and see a dying family member. But hey, the intelligentsia of Canada on this blog would deny facts even on a deathbed with a tube down their throats.

I’ll be the first to come back here and comment that it was overkill when this crisis is over, and if I was wrong.

Will Sail Away and the like come back to do the same?
Do you have the moral integrity to do so?
Do you care about others or just about yourselves and your bank balances?

Discuss

#86 Michel on 03.13.20 at 7:28 pm

“Remember the threat to your family is not medical. It’s economic.”

You’re right, it’s economic, but for some, it’s also medical. Not only for oldies, but for people with an immunocomprised system (like me). Fortunately, I work from home, but my wife could get the virus at the office.

#87 Dolce Vita on 03.13.20 at 7:28 pm

BTW Garth, could not agree with you more on the panic selling craziness in the markets as of late.

You know, history a good teacher, few pupils.

Maybe with today’s market rebound…there might be some pupils out there after all.

Like you all have been saying, historically, markets up 70% of the time. Why I haven’t sold a damn thing.

Good advice, I follow.

#88 Attrition on 03.13.20 at 7:31 pm

People are funny.

I keep hearing you should never believe the numbers out of China, no way is China telling the truth about the # of deaths, you can never believe the Chinese fatality rates etc.

Then, in the very same breath, the very same people believe everything China is saying about the # of infections.

So, that number is pure truth from the Chinese state?

But the number of deaths is pure fiction from the same Chinese state?

Why believe the denominator but not the numerator?

Odd are, the fatalities are pretty accurate, but the infection rate is vastly over stated by the simple fact that millions of people would likely rather stay home than get tested, and millions more didn’t even notice that the cold they caught was any worse than every other one.

Oh, and I know this won’t jive with anyone’s end-times fetishes, but…it’s just a cold.

#89 Flop... on 03.13.20 at 7:34 pm

Spring Break 2020 is all but ashes at this point.

School Board is sending out mixed messages.

Life moves on.

What do I normally do after Spring Break?

File taxes.

You guys remember the Heartbleed bug?

I think they extended the tax filing deadline by about a week.

CRA must be thinking about extending the deadline this year too…

M45BC

#90 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 7:34 pm

#79 Dolce Vita on 03.13.20 at 7:12 pm
#55 Sail away

Carissimo Sail Away:

When you’re in lockdown, get back to me. And you will be with that attitude.

—————————-

Pretty sure the virus would instigate lockdown, not attitude.

That said, I’m ecstatic our nanny state recognized Corvid lockdown as EI-eligible.

Now when the economy grinds to a halt, my employees can all enjoy long EI-paid holidays, and I won’t have to lay them off or pay them.

My assumption is that most people will contract this, since colds are like that. Then… vacation time!

Thank the raven.

#91 John Dimacque on 03.13.20 at 7:44 pm

What about the poor guy that bought in 2007 TSX was 15,000 at it’s high now 13,716. Even with dividends and annual fees, it did not make much of return. A simple GIC depositor shopping for the best rates, rolling over every 5 years could of done better.

This is mostly true for middle income earners and with RRSP’s, TFSA’s.

Bogus comparison. The index was 18,000 a few weeks ago. And why pick a reference point 17 years ago, before the 2008 reset? Have an agenda? – Garth

#92 Dolce Vita on 03.13.20 at 7:46 pm

#89 Sail away

In your own demented way, you actually make sense.

I take heart that Gov Canada is getting it together.

As for EI etc., Canada’s economy is robust. I think a mild recession maybe a few months or so, if that.

Still enough time for you to “sail”, I mean “steal away”.

Italia’s economy on the other hand, will go from basket case to wrecked (as will other EU economies)…still, we’re buoyant.

See that’s the key, buoyancy or balance…just like in investing.

It will see the day thru.

#93 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 7:57 pm

#84 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 7:23 pm

I’ll be the first to come back here and comment that it was overkill when this crisis is over, and if I was wrong.

—————————

No te preocupes, Lalo, se lo recordaré.

#94 BBD (BarkingBlackDog) on 03.13.20 at 7:58 pm

@#84 re:
“Do you [“Sail Away and the like”] care about others or just about yourselves and your bank balances?

Discuss”

SailAway has made it pretty obvious through many, many comments here, that it is all about him, his bank balance, and how much fun he can have “needling” others. He is one of several commenters (the stinky one comes to mind) who display very low emotional IQ. Those types hang here, because Garth allows it.

#95 Sold Out on 03.13.20 at 8:00 pm

The first known case of Covid19 community transmission in Washington State, a short ferry ride away from Victoria BC, was discovered on January 20th. It was discovered incidentally, as part of the state’s annual flu monitoring program. Privacy and ethical concerns prevented the information from being shared with the wider healthcare system.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/health/coronavirus-washington-spread.html

Every province also maintains a flu monitoring program, and is handcuffed by the same ethical and privacy concerns. Social media here is full of people reporting “mild flu-like symptoms”, and that they are self-isolating. This is actually good news; the mortality rate will be much diluted by the untracked infections already occurring.

These illnesses are not being tracked, as there is no testing for people who have no travel history, or contact with a confirmed case. So any number cited of total infections is highly suspect. Unfortunately, many of our friends and neighbours continue to go about their business with these symptoms, having been given the impression that “it’s just a cold” and can’t be the dreaded virus because if it was, they’d test us, right?

Many lessons will be learned from this pandemic. Regulation sometimes gets in the way of delivering appropriate care and information. The next pandemic will be handled differently, and there will be a next time. It might be next winter, when Covid19 makes a return appearance. Let’s hope we have a vaccine soon.

In the meantime, if you’re sick, stay home. If you’re not, wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands. Don’t touch your face. The goal is to keep our healthcare system from turning into a smoking crater. Do your part, and don’t hoard FFS.

I’ve just finished a week of “mild flu-like symptoms” and self-quarantine. If I go 24 hours without a fever, I’ll go back to social distancing. The dog and I are both very excited about it. I can only hope I didn’t give my bug, whatever it is, to a vulnerable person while asymptomatic.

#96 Apocalypse2020 on 03.13.20 at 8:08 pm

Friday the 13th.

The Ides of March.

But what’s most ominous is the powerful wind sweeping across central Canada today.

Did you just step out of the elevator, crowdedfartz?

#97 Treasure Island CEO - .88 cents Offshore (Margin Call) on 03.13.20 at 8:10 pm

People need to change their attitude about the virus not being threatening to them.

Yeah, you probably won’t die from it, but it is this type of thinking that supports transmission of it that will reach the weak / compromised population who are toast if they get this thing.

And as a reminder, people who neglect self-quarantine in Italy and cause spread are being charged for homicide.

#98 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 8:11 pm

#87 Attrition

‘Oh, and I know this won’t jive with anyone’s end-times fetishes, but…it’s just a cold.’

No one is talking about end of times.
We talking about being decent human beings.

A lady has just flown back from Spain on Air Transat.
Lives in Cobourg.
Probably just the cold, no point in checking who was on the same flight. Why believe doctors and science when we have feelings and Trump?

The link I posted from WHO a little higher is probably just fake news. The Queen is a lizard and Tom Hanks is a pedophile hiding in Australia and pretending to be ill.

Righhhhht.

I noticed you didn’t provide any actual data/link to backup your impressive knowledge. Nor did you take me up on offer regarding moral integrity.

@michel they don’t care about people like you, only about their “investments”

Dude, did you notice this is a financial blog? The Empathy Blog is down the hall, on the left. – Garth

#99 NoName on 03.13.20 at 8:13 pm

Scientific Approach to Avoid Coronavirus COVID-19

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0Ae0mjMljs

#100 Madcat on 03.13.20 at 8:14 pm

Sweet!… I’m a cowboy… Hope this plays out well…

#101 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 03.13.20 at 8:16 pm

A long time ago the United States, Canada and our allies spent and borrowed a lot of money to help defeat the Nazis. They even built a pipeline called the Big Inch to supply petroleum to the fight. Few people objected because Nazis are very bad.

On a much smaller scale (relative to the size of our economies) I see the same thing happening with this virus. Few people will object to lots of new spending because Covid-19 is also bad (but not as bad as Nazis).

If Roosevelt and Stalin could work together defeating Nazis. I think Trump and Pelosi can work together to defeat Covid-19.

#102 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 03.13.20 at 8:19 pm

Canada CLOSING down the borders???

Only when it HITZ HOME does it matter to the top officials….. yup that’s what I thought.

Get well Sophie!!!

#103 TurnerNation on 03.13.20 at 8:20 pm

The emails from Corporation are flooding in. Stores are Banning Cash. Gee, what of that cashless e-currency our elites rulers want? Bank of Canada began their work on this last year.
PROTEST gathering – a cornerstone of Democracy, are banned. See what they did there?
This is not about a virus, it’s about softening us up, getting used to travel restrictions, assembly restrictions and the most, attacking each other.
ALL public libraries, museums, sporting events, other events, are closing in Toronto. A bleak communist wasteland. Crime will spike, no longer safe to walk at night all those bored and laid-off people.

Government to pay rent, mortgages? This is the socialism and enforced poverty they want. All of this must be in place by 2021. I’ve been posting for 6 months the signs, how fast this is happeneing and chaos events in order. The average Unbalanced Joe just lost 30% of this retirement saves. You bet he’s pulling out and Just Buying Da House/condo now.

Wait till the e-currency goes down or is hacked. This is Toronto now…our elites are roaring with laughter watching us tear each other apart. Hunger Games:

https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/03/gun-reportedly-drawn-fight-toronto-grocery-store-amid-coronavirus-panic-shopping/

#104 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 8:25 pm

#92 “Those types hang here, because Garth allows it.”

Indeed.

This will be my last post for today.

I do appreciate that investments will rebound, that in the long run it will be fine.

I do know that we will find a cure and then a vaccine. that what intelligent monkeys like us do.

I’m indeed very sad seeing what this blog has become.
The comments over the last few years, since 2016 and even more since the jet being shot down are getting worse.

Day by day it confirms my thinking that Canada has become USA-light in its worst attitudes.

No, I’m not bundling 30 million plus people as being cretins.

As a nation. as adults, as citizens who live with others of various ages and needs we should take a hard look at ourselves. Are we toilet paper scavengers fighting in the parking lot or seemingly firing guns in a supermarket in Toronto? Or having to call police in a Costco in Quebec?

Are we looking forward to wexit? because that is coming up on the card when the proverbial shit will hit the whole fan.

So Mr Turner. Indeed this evening have a nice glass of your favorite beverage, walk the cute dog. kiss your lady and maybe, just maybe reflect on turning off comments. You are free to right whatever you wish, obviously.

But in the end might want to consider the kind of impression harboring certain people will give to potential clients.

PS Sail away and the like. I’ve met many people like you in my life, and would still help them if they hurt themselves.

ciao

#105 uncle dave on 03.13.20 at 8:32 pm

https://philnews.ph/2020/03/03/covid-19-death-toll-update-list-of-countries-with-deaths-cases/

if these numbers are true we just need to calm tf down as has been preached on this blog since day 1.

#106 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 8:33 pm

“Dude, did you notice this is a financial blog? The Empathy Blog is down the hall, on the left. – Garth”

Congratulations. No, not expecting empathy, can you advise me on a tobacco and weapons ETF?

Do you call your clients “dude” or only people from a safe distance?

Hug? – Garth

#107 Nonplused on 03.13.20 at 8:34 pm

What I am wondering with all these sport leagues and other entertainment venues shutting down is maybe people discover they don’t need them, and they should be investing or somehow saving the money, or paying off debt. Maybe spending $2,000 grand a year per person on vacations or a share of a season ticket was not as important as topping up the TFSA and RRSP. Maybe you can live without it. Oh do not go long cruise lines or airlines here.

#108 BBD (BarkingBlackDog) on 03.13.20 at 8:37 pm

“Dude, did you notice this is a financial blog? The Empathy Blog is down the hall, on the left. – Garth”

We need a blog for that?

#109 Sold Out on 03.13.20 at 8:41 pm

Oh, and for those that think their healthy habits and intestinal superiority will protect them from infection, a little hint…

The name, ‘novel coronavirus’, means ‘new to your immune system coronavirus ‘. If a virus is new to your immune system, you have no antibodies to defend yourself against it. No immunity, zero, none. No humans, except those already infected and recovered, have any immunity to this virus, including you. All the organic food, yoga, and clean thoughts in the world are meaningless.

Even if you get the bug and get better, the virus can mutate just enough to re-infect you at a later date.

#110 dr talc on 03.13.20 at 8:49 pm

‘real data’ from WHO ha ha
‘epidemiologists’ even funnier
‘stats from television’ that the best joke
‘Justin Trudeau says’ now that’s the gold standard of a psy op

folks, the real problem is peoples inability to recognize propaganda, that’s it, your mis-dis-information is delivered to you by proven liars daily, if you believe TV, your deserve what’s coming to you and what’s not coming to you
the entire operation is a massive transfer of wealth and a compliance ritual
governments borrowing quadrillions they dont have and giving it away

#111 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.13.20 at 8:49 pm

I’ve noticed a strange corelation on this blog. Seems the fearmongers, TDS sufferers, and Trudeau voters are all one and the same.

Freaky.

And Sail Away, keep tellin’ it like it is! Anyone who can get BBD’s bonnet in a bunch so easily is a friend in my book.

#112 Gregor Samsa on 03.13.20 at 8:49 pm

Wow, this is sure a bullish blog today. Today’s lesson: the cornavirus is a mild flu and buy everything in sight, nothing bad can happen! (referring more to the steerage than Garth, who is smarter). Go look at a stock market chart of 1929-1955. After the crash, there were tons of guys saying it was over, it was time to buy, etc. The market even started going back up. Then it started going down, and down, and down. Sometime around 1950 (if they were still alive) they broke even on their investments. 20 years later. Or look at the Japan 80’s crash. Those guys are STILL waiting for it to go back up.

But it can’t happen here, not with such strong leadership at the helm… right…

#113 Shawn Allen on 03.13.20 at 8:51 pm

County by country figures

The site here rolls to a new day at midnight Greenich mean time so about 45 minutes ago. It seems they then do updates as any new figures come in.
China showing just 3 new cases no new deaths and 79% (and counting) now recovered . But 3.9% of those infected dead. That’s not a low death rate!

Italy still showing massive spread.

South Korea with 110 new cases to total almost 8000 may be getting things somewhat under control.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Hundreds per day are being tested in Edmonton. So we might see a big jump in cases but so far no community spread yet found. Then again most of these tested are probably those that have traveled.

#114 Trailor_sailor on 03.13.20 at 8:55 pm

Sail away / Eduardo de la something:

We’re all just reading this to de stress and think about money yes?

No need to get yr backs up (unless that’s how you relax?? Pots legal now though…).

But whether or not you personally are worried, do your bit for the hard and hygiene, hygiene, hygiene

One upside that might come outta this is all you disgusting people who come outta the can without washing might knock it off (yes lads, I do mean the arsenal as well, I did seen you at it)

#115 Ed on 03.13.20 at 8:59 pm

I’ve been in Hawaii since October….supposed to fly home next week.

Maybe I should stay here…people getting crazy in Canada.

Maybe our leader will close the border to the USA and make up my mind for me.

At any rate Hawaii is doing a stellar job with this virus thing here without people stampeding.

#116 n1tro on 03.13.20 at 9:07 pm

On the bright side…my company sent out notice that we all working from home as of Monday. Yippieeeee!

Paranoia. Oh how I love thee.

All I need to make this situation perfect is to get a pile of money so I can back up the truck on stocks. Anyone want to loan me some? I’m willing to pay prime + 3%.

#117 Not 1st on 03.13.20 at 9:10 pm

Honest question. What is the fed fighting? If it’s a demand side slow down from a pandemic then they went about it wrong. They should be getting relief into peoples hands.

But instead they cut rates and injected stimulus right into the equity and bond market. Sounds like they are fighting the yield curve instead of the virus. One last stand against negative rates or wither the banking system?

Never waste a good crisis.

#118 Trojan House on 03.13.20 at 9:28 pm

#96 Treasure Island CEO – .88 cents Offshore (Margin Call) on 03.13.20 at 8:10 pm

People die from all sorts of things all the time, and unfortunately, it usually is those who are the most vulnerable to disease. That’s life…and death.

Good luck trying to prove it’s homicide. You could not prove beyond reasonable doubt that it was that particular person you acquired the disease from. It could have come from anyone at any time. That’s just fearmongering.

#119 john duff on 03.13.20 at 9:51 pm

“Hug? – Garth”

please hug as many of your followers as possible, I’ve got some free tickets to visit Milan. Would love to bring y’all there. Don’t forget the MAGA hats + tinfoil. never know

#120 Rebecca on 03.13.20 at 9:59 pm

Thanks for your two cents, Garth, but I’ll listen to the medical experts and keep up the social quarantine. I’d like to avoid murdering the elderly and those who aren’t fortunate enough to be able to work from home.

That was ignorant. – Garth

#121 Gregor Samsa on 03.13.20 at 10:00 pm

One more thing for the bulls: so many people are cancelling flights right now that you can’t even call Westjet anymore. Phone lines are completely jammed. Their website is now pleading with people to only call if the flight is within 72 hours. What kind of trickle down impact will that have on the economy? Hotels, restaurants, taxis, etc? When will people feel safe enough to fly again? Weeks? Months? How long will we all be living in our caves clutching our TP rolls, and how many billions will that cost the economy in Canada alone? Recession and job losses are coming, which will spin into more job losses. Do markets normally rise during recessions?

And how well is Canada positioned for this? Alberta and many other provinces were already on the mat before this began. Ontario is close to a debt crisis. Have we been saving up for a rainy day like little chipmunks or been swaggering around like drunken sailors? We all know the answer. Trudeau had a $20B deficit baked in BEFORE the crisis. Household debt is the highest in the world. Our interest rates were barely above zero, and now they effectively are at zero. Will that little tweak bring a stampede of moisters out dying to enslave themselves for a condo? Don’t think so.

So forgive me for not piling my life savings into the markets just yet.

#122 DON on 03.13.20 at 10:03 pm

“The Bank of Canada has made an unexpected rate cut, cutting the central bank’s benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.75 per cent.”

That and mucho stimulus. Why did the markets need it? If China has contained the situation (lower numbers in the last 10 days)…why the panic? Just a herd reaction? If so…YIKES! No market is safe from that.

Canada needed the stimulus more for the plop in oil prices that was launched to disrupt the heavily indebted US shale companies. Both the Saudis and Russians benefit.

Or are their more underlying concerns lurking behind the scenes?

I guess we’ll find out.

I would rather sees massive stimulus to build oil refineries to process Canadian Oil and provide cheaper gas prices for all Canadians. If we can bail out the markets we can also start to bail out Canadians and provide a competitive advantage for Canada in general. *YES a national energy company owned by us for the benefit of wait for it…us.

I guess all we can do is HOPE for the best as things don’t look stellar on any front.

Stay safe!

and anyone who suffers from asthma and/or allergys (problems with breathing) be extra careful the pollen is starting.

#123 Sold Out on 03.13.20 at 10:03 pm

On a lighter note..

Today’s Drink of the Day:

Quarantini – it’s the same as a regular martini, but you have to drink it by yourself.

Badum bum! I’ll be here all week. Try the lobster.

#124 conan on 03.13.20 at 10:04 pm

Saudi Arabia can go forever at those prices. They know oil is on its last 50 years and they also know they have 100 hundreds of years of reserves, some say thousands.
They are pumping and its foolish to mess with them in this regard.

#125 Lottery Winner on 03.13.20 at 10:13 pm

If I win the $50 million Lotto Max tonight, I am spending it ALL on toilet paper!

Yahoooooooo!

I’ll be able to fill my van up completely!

#126 BBD (BarkingBlackDog) on 03.13.20 at 10:19 pm

@#104 eduardo de la conche

Re: “PS Sail away and the like. I’ve met many people like you in my life, and would still help them if they hurt themselves.
ciao”

That is the difference between you and he. Best to you.

#127 BBD (BarkingBlackDog) on 03.13.20 at 10:21 pm

@BytorTheSnowJob,

Bite me.

#128 WUL on 03.13.20 at 10:23 pm

The forecast for tonight is – 30 degrees in Ft. Mac, Taiga.

No crocuses yet. Flowers will emerge about Victoria Day.

Winter up here is easy on men and dogs.

It’s hard as hell on viruses, women and horses.

All is well up here outside of anxiety and panic levels. I have one more roll of toilet paper. And new guitar strings. Laughin’ and liquid, for now.

Cheers Dawgs,

WUL

64MAB

#129 n1tro on 03.13.20 at 10:25 pm

#109 Sold Out on 03.13.20 at 8:41 pm

Common cold/flu mutates yearly. No big deal because humans have evolved T-cells. Some people scare real easy here.

#130 Thom on 03.13.20 at 10:27 pm

OK. This toilet paper thing. I have been thinking a lot about it. Yes, I know…. But everyone needs to think for a minute. There is an aspect to the frenzy that no one has thought about. All those people that buy all those rolls of toilet paper… and some are not just buying a lot. Some are buying truckloads. Think about this. All those people will now not have any need to buy TP for a VERY LONG TIME. Toilet paper purchases will then actually DECREASE! That means the shelves will soon be fully stocked for the rest of us. Maybe even overstocked! So there is no need to join the frenzy! Roll on!!!!

#131 John in Mtl on 03.13.20 at 10:30 pm

#107 Nonplused on 03.13.20 at 8:34 pm

What I am wondering with all these sport leagues and other entertainment venues shutting down is maybe people discover they don’t need them…

Ya but then they’ll all spend it on expensive smartphones & other “social” gadgets instead! Aren’t people estranged and isolated enough already, in their little smartphone world?

#132 Mr Canada on 03.13.20 at 10:33 pm

Grocery Stores have been incredibly busy (Loblaw will likely have a great quarter end) but in the last two days (no doubt related to the market crash this week) aisles have become suddenly empty. I always said there is a real fine veneer between civility and madness. What would happen if this was a REAL emergency, like no hydro, water, food supplies or closed hospitals? Our government and “we the people” are so unprepared.

#133 Doug in London on 03.13.20 at 10:35 pm

That’s a good point, that the biggest threat of this virus is to the economy, possibly to the end of the year. I must be a cowboy as I was scooping up XFN and oil stocks but no airlines. Say, has anyone seen my 45 litre hat? On a different note, are there any bikers here who ignored the warnings to avoid crowds and went to Port Dover today?

#134 TurnerNation on 03.13.20 at 10:37 pm

I appreciate our forum host keeping sane commentary here. This is a financial blog.

Did ya notice…one country always is seemingly chosen to be savaged during these financial crises.
In 2008 it was Iceland.
Then Greece.
Now Italy.

(BTW Apple has reopened all its stores in China)
I’m more worried that democracy is suspended in this country. No sitting Parliament. No public protest gatherings allowed. Watch closely the emergency laws rammed through. Shades of Sept 11 where we lost freedoms for good. Anybody here on a secret watch list? Who knows.

#135 DON on 03.13.20 at 10:43 pm

#123 Sold Out on 03.13.20 at 10:03 pm

On a lighter note..

Today’s Drink of the Day:

Quarantini – it’s the same as a regular martini, but you have to drink it by yourself.

Badum bum! I’ll be here all week. Try the lobster.

******

Nicely done!

#136 BBD (BarkingBlackDog) on 03.13.20 at 10:44 pm

@#104 re: “But in the end might want to consider the kind of impression harboring certain people will give to potential clients. ”

You’d think….

#137 dr talc on 03.13.20 at 10:48 pm

during the SARS ‘epidemic’, Toronto was ground zero.
Mel Lastman was mayor, he was interviewed by Aaron Brown on CNN Mel says: “They told me ‘the CDC is here’, I said “who are these people? I’ve never heard of these people’ Aaron Brown literally laughed at Mel on TV.
It looked like Mel didn’t get the memo. But as mayor he knew what to do, and that it had nothing to do with Atlanta

#138 robfordlives on 03.13.20 at 10:55 pm

The banks are fine, totally fine. OSFI dropping capital buffer like this is totally normal!

https://www.advisor.ca/news/industry-news/osfi-slashes-banks-required-capital-buffer/

Meanwhile Saudi oil will replace Canadian tar….look out below folks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-11/saudi-tankers-aimed-at-u-s-gulf-coast-could-push-out-canada-oil

#139 Dr V on 03.13.20 at 10:56 pm

117 Not first – I also thought that. Don 122 makes a
valid point. BOC cut is good reaction to oil glut, but it doesn’t fight a virus. Nor should it be used to save the market from a spot of panic-selling.

#140 Wait There on 03.13.20 at 11:00 pm

People over 70 have a fatality rate of 8%.
China at the peak locked down 780 million people.
China issues masks or the population were issued masks.
Parts of Wuhan City are STILL under lockdown and how many weeks have passed?
Societies under the CCP are different from societies where people are allowed to block vital train tracks and the government is powerless to do anything. Ever see blockades in China?

Fact is the government in Europe and NA have given up containing and stopping the virus. As long as there are open international travel allowances the world. Right now, the government will now focus on slowing the transmission. Here testing is hardly of any benefit. So you tested positive? Then what? Go home self isolate. Wait, if you feel unwell, go home and self isolate. Same thing in the end.
Washing hands will not stop the virus only slow it down. Wait, masks help a lot in slowing it down to a crawl like in Hong Kong. Why no masks.

This tragedy falls squarely on the CCP lap. Make no mistake. The place to have contained and stop it was Wuhan. When that was breached, then it should have been stopped at the borders of China. Until Chinese CCP influence forced some countries to keep their borders open. If we took a hard line and TRULY quarantined ALL travellers from China over the world this could have been stopped.
The WHO is also complicit is this mess. They took too long to call it a pandemic and that Tedros guy needs to resign. It won’t matter because he’s looked after by the CCP anyways.
Again, make no mistake, Loved ones will become statistics when all is said and done and spineless governments are complicit. Yeah the world economy will eventually recover but without some loved ones who had to leave early because we did not want to hurt peoples feelings.
We did not want to hurt the airline and travel industry but look where it landed us. They are hurt ALONG with others anyways.

#141 crazyfox on 03.13.20 at 11:08 pm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Lets look at the numbers and learn shall we? China reported 1 new case today. Just 1. The world? Nearly 11,000. Of the first 76,376 closed cases, 7.35% died. No one can put lipstick on that pig. Italy reported 2,547 new cases today with 250 deaths. Why so many deaths today? Lets look at that.

When we scroll down on the link above, do readers see the heading “Total case/1M pop” ? Do you all see that now? When Italy’s number hit 150, their hospitals and ICU’s in Lombardy became overwhelmed. So, they began to transfer patients outside of Lombardy to other hospitals. This deepened their consideration to lock down all of Italy. This story circulated on the 10th of March. It’s only getting worse there, just follow the numbers:

https://expressinformer.com/overwhelmed-italian-hospitals-are-running-at-200-per-cent-capacity/

The CFR is rising in Italy because the system is overwhelmed. That “Total case/1M pop” heading I’ve asked readers to look at? Where’s Italy now? 292. Iran’s numbers are likely widely under reported with systems overwhelmed. Spain’s numbers are ramping up with a ‘la model Wuhan rate of spread and will likely be overwhelmed in 3 to 5 days. We can expect their Case Fatality Rate to go up in consequence. Switzerland… Denmark… Norway… Bahrain… all of their hospitals are on the edge of full capacity right now because of their smaller pops. Germany and France are 1 to 3 weeks away from their health care systems becoming overwhelmed. Their limits are likely around 200. An ICU count with capacity tells us how close they are, it’s predictable . The numbers around 50 today will likely be 150+ a week from now, do readers follow?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E2%80%932004_SARS_outbreak#/media/File:2003_Probable_cases_of_SARS_-_Worldwide.svg

If SARS is any comparison of what to expect if this virus is seasonal, it will run into the first week of May before tailing off. Maybe. This virus is showing a high tolerance for temp and humidity variability but all virus’s are vulnerable to UV’s meaning this virus will need to pass on indoors and likely will just as it is in tropical nations right now. What this also means is that without the effort to try to “flatten the curve”, greater numbers of people will become infected, hospitals will become overwhelmed and the CFR’s in the nations in question will go up.

What I’m trying to say is, its not just an economic story, its a human one. If we are lucky, there will only be 250,000 active cases by the end of March and 400,000 by the end of the first week of May. Maybe the numbers tail off from there or maybe not, we could have a half a million active cases by July 1st and keep ramping up into the next flu season. Singapore and Malaysia at 90 degree heat is showing no sign of a peak there.

Sure, good governance will help (look around and ask yourselves just how good that is world wide), CB’s will help (until they get to zero which won’t be long and we haven’t even got Q1 numbers yet) sure, but until all levels of government take this more seriously than they are right now, we should remind ourselves that this pandemic is at the beginning, not the end.

#142 crazyfox on 03.13.20 at 11:23 pm

There are a lot more shoes to drop from this centipede. One only has to look at the numbers from worldometer “and understand them” to see why that is. Lets look at some more numbers (hospital beds per 1,000 people for all nations world wide). :

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/360.html

Italy = 2.7 beds per 1,000 people
France = 6.5
Canada = 2.7 (2012)
Denmark = 2.5
Germany = 8.3
Iran = 0.2
South Korea = 11.5
Norway = 3.8
Sweden = 2.4
Switzerland = 4.7
U.S. = 2.9
Spain = 3.0

We think this is good right? Lots of beds, 3 hots and a cot like 8 day old Chinese hospitals, its all good. Lets look at ICU counts now (scroll down table 1) These numbers are 2012, couldn’t find something more recent but it gives some idea:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3551445/

Country ICU beds per 100,000 people
United States 20.0–31.7
Canada 13.5
Denmark 6.7–8.9
Australia 8.0–8.9
South Africa 8.9
Sweden 5.8–8.7
Spain 8.2–9.7
Japan 7.9
UK 3.5–7.4
New Zealand 4.8–5.5
China 2.8–4.6
Trinidad & Tobago 2.1
Sri Lanka 1.6
Zambia —

In 2012, Canada had 5,000 ICU’s. What do we have now, 5,500? 6,000? 6,000 at 80% capacity, we have 1,200 ICU’s available. If 5% go critical care and we hit 24,000 active cases, at 80% capacity, our health care systems hit their limit. At 90% capacity we hit our limit with 12,000 cases. Word on the street is, ICU’s are near maxed now. Do readers follow?

Every nation, their systems of government, their people and their health care systems will be tested. Some will fail and surprise us when they do. It’s why I say, pay close attention to worldometer:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Follow the numbers daily. Its the only way investors (and money managers) can predict the narrative of what is to come. Canada had 56 new cases today with 198 confirmed cases so far. Will Canada shoot past it’s ICU limit before May? I think so, its likely yes, hopefully not by much. I hope people understand now why governments and CB’s are throwing money at this now, its a growing crisis and deserves our respect.

#143 lolamoor on 03.13.20 at 11:33 pm

#249 from yesterday’s blog, makes you worried aboot mankind.:

“they don’t border the most advanced civilization in the history of the world.”

Are you comparing murica to Italian history and science?

What did the Romans ever do for us?

Da Vinci? Michel Angelo? (ok also the mussolini guy)

Go to your local library. read some history from a country that has existed for more than 150 years.

#144 WUL on 03.13.20 at 11:37 pm

#124 conan on 03.13.20 at 10:04 pm

Saudi Arabia can go forever at those prices. They know oil is on its last 50 years and they also know they have 100 hundreds of years of reserves, some say thousands.

They are pumping and its foolish to mess with them in this regard.

yup…yup…yup…yup…

The Saudis have identified a sunset industry. They’ll pump 24/7/365.

Premier Kenney will go long on crude and fund oilcos.

Own goal!

Suncor might survive. It’s now an energy company. Loading up on solar and wind. They’re crafty.

WUL

64ABDriller

#145 Sail Away on 03.13.20 at 11:41 pm

#112 Gregor Samsa on 03.13.20 at 8:49 pm

Wow, this is sure a bullish blog today. Today’s lesson: the cornavirus is a mild flu and buy everything in sight, nothing bad can happen! (referring more to the steerage than Garth, who is smarter). Go look at a stock market chart of 1929-1955. After the crash, there were tons of guys saying it was over, it was time to buy, etc. The market even started going back up. Then it started going down, and down, and down. Sometime around 1950 (if they were still alive) they broke even on their investments. 20 years later. Or look at the Japan 80’s crash. Those guys are STILL waiting for it to go back up.

But it can’t happen here, not with such strong leadership at the helm… right…

————————————-

Nobody is trying to convince you, my friend. You can do whatever you like.

Who will be more correct? Nobody knows.

#146 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.20 at 11:44 pm

I just hope that Costco recinds their crazy no time limit return policy.
So most of the hoarding idiots will be stuck with TP clogging up the garage.
And the F-150 will be corroding outside.

#147 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.20 at 11:49 pm

When this is all over the world will be a better place.
Good bye, Mrs. Market.
Bernie may just make it.

#148 Steven Rowlandson on 03.13.20 at 11:58 pm

No shortage of insanity, malfeasance and lying out there.
The best strategy might be to believe God and the verifiable evidence of what you can see and discount everything else. In the end you have to live with your decisions.

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.13.20 at 11:59 pm

#44 Thank you on 03.13.20 at 5:46 pm
Thanks Garth I like all your posts this past week, I will admit I was really stressed. I did not sell, but I borrowed and bought.
Anyway it’s not over but thank you for prevailing calmer sage advice.
My TFSA down 20,000 at the bottom up 12,000 today one day oh my gosh. Glad I did not sell!
Have a great weekend,
————
So you borrowed and bought!
This is far from over.
Expect margin calls soon.

#150 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 12:02 am

Is it just my take, or are the outwardly empathetic proclaimers (OEPs) the ones most likely to ‘helpfully suggest’ Garth ban blogdogs espousing opinions the OEP doesn’t like?

#151 WUL on 03.14.20 at 12:06 am

21:54 in Fort McMisery now. Last comment until at least noon tomorrow.

Renewed my mortgage on my less than vast corporeal hereditament in Cowtown late December, ’19. A fiver at 2.60% or thereabouts. I did not have to renew until April Fool’s Day.

With guts and fortitude, I coulda held out for about 1.9% or so.

We don’t get a second spin on the wheel of fortune. I played the hand I was dealt.

Shucks.

WUL

64M – 2020 Vision.

#152 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 12:10 am

#109 Sold Out on 03.13.20 at 8:41 pm

Oh, and for those that think their healthy habits and intestinal superiority will protect them from infection, a little hint…

The name, ‘novel coronavirus’, means ‘new to your immune system coronavirus ‘. If a virus is new to your immune system, you have no antibodies to defend yourself against it. No immunity, zero, none. No humans, except those already infected and recovered, have any immunity to this virus, including you.

———————————

Exactly. We’re all going to catch this cold. No point being neurotic about it.

#153 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 12:10 am

#61 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 6:31 pm
#42 mark on 03.13.20 at 5:50 pm

Is Suncor (SU.T) a value trap with price and moving away from fossil fuels globally????

—————————

Mark, this might be an interesting exercise:

If you are near a window, look out.

1. Do you see anything that uses, is derived from, or in some way made use of, fossil fuels?

2. Do you see anything that used to use, or was derived from fossil fuels, but has now transitioned to newer technology?

3. Think
———
When I look outside of my window I see blossoming Japanese plum trees, daffodils in bloom and tulips just opening up.
In a few days the dogwood and the cherry tree will be in fool bloom.
Life is good.
You keep timing the market.

#154 RVS on 03.14.20 at 12:27 am

#2 Dave on 03.13.20 at 4:28 pm
So all we care about is real estate….whats going to happen in BC?

It will go up, as it always do. Real estate is always a safe bet.

#155 Attrition on 03.14.20 at 12:29 am

Sail, along with a few of his more intelligence nemeses, is one of the top attractions (or rather, his comments are). He self regulates, responds intelligently–despite the fact that the the emoting masses can’t handle this–and his wit is a fitting complement to our host’s enduring wit, intelligence and good humour.

Free thinkers don’t ban ppl like that.

#156 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 12:29 am

My wife has the Fairchild news channel out of HongKong.
They are usually anti Mainland China.
But they confirm the Chinese government’s corona numbers.
So let’s toast the Chinese for a job well done.
Xi 1: Prez 0.

#157 DON on 03.14.20 at 12:30 am

#90 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 7:34 pm

How much do you think your employees will make on EI?

#158 DON on 03.14.20 at 12:53 am

#71 eduardo de la conche on 03.13.20 at 6:56 pm

At this point my dear Mr Turner, and as an ex-politician and responsible adult I sincerely believe you should close down comments on your blog.
**************

I get what you are saying…but on this last point I think it’s better to listen to all other points of view. Provides perspective on human nature.

#159 MaryEn on 03.14.20 at 1:03 am

Luckily, the virus didn’t hit China and USA in the same time. Base on the represented graph, whether it hit USA (hopefully it will never happened!), we can expect China to be already OK. So, there is no serious threaten for the global crises nor the panic either regarding major supply chains.

However, it’s still hard to predict and calculate the real damage which can cause further volatility on the stock market. It could bring more buying opportunities but not so much for me. I’m almost out with the rest of my 2.5% of bonds.

Thank you Garth. Your advices are priceless!

#160 Barb on 03.14.20 at 1:15 am

#103 “Stores are Banning Cash.”

—————————————————–
Debit/credit card machines are likely just as dirty

#161 DRUNKEN STUPOR on 03.14.20 at 1:39 am

Someone mentioned rubber band economy. I just look forward to the baby boom starting later this year… what happens when you lock people in their homes with no major sports on tv ;-)

#162 Not So New guy on 03.14.20 at 2:02 am

Guilt manifests in peculiar ways

#163 just snootin' on 03.14.20 at 2:05 am

#66 Dolce Vita on 03.13.20 at 6:44 pm
“So when I look at a chart like this, I can see what’s coming.”

No you can’t because it hasn’t come yet.

You are 2 wks or so behind Italia.

….

What??? On February 1, Canada had 4 cases, Italy had 2, and South Korea had 15. So here we are today all on the same timeline.

#164 fishman on 03.14.20 at 2:06 am

The old-time big five : Logging,mining +oil & gas, fishing, agriculture & tourism are thundering into a recession here in B.C. Carrying with them truckers,longshoremen,tugboaters, shippers, independent contractors, the usual victims.
As bad as the future looks here, everyone else around the Pacific Rim is getting out of Dodge & coming home to the foggy farm. I’ve no idea where they all will live. Most likely the poor & infirm & unskilled & uneducated will get squeezed east.

#165 People Panic on 03.14.20 at 2:08 am

#82 eduardo de la conche

Indeed. But I think I see the reason this must be contained. It is not the severity, but the speed. The hope is to not overwhelm the health care system, which simply does not have unlimited beds.

We don’t want this turning into a war zone, where doctors have to decide who is worth treating and who isn’t based on the likelihood they will survive and the effort diverted from other patients. There are only so many doctors and so many beds. That is why this thing must be slowed down through other measures. It’s not because we are all going to die, it’s because the health care system can only handle so much at once. For example, if you are not a doctor, do you think you could go to the hospital and help? The professionals would probably rather you don’t get in the way and become another patient. But what happens when the medical staff are all sick and the beds are all filled? What the medical staff wants you to do right now is take steps to minimize the risk you will get sick. So do it.

The trick here is containment or at least slowing it down because there are only so many doctors, nurses, and beds. Should this thing be uncontainable but survivable, fine, but it still needs to be stretched out to consider our health care capabilities. We need to make all efforts to slow it down even if it can’t be stopped. There are only so many doctors.

#166 SoggyShorts on 03.14.20 at 2:13 am

#255 Sold Out on 03.13.20 at 2:26 pm
#239 IHCTD9 on 03.13.20 at 12:41 pm

If she can manage to cork her opinions, and stay the hell off of Twitter, she will do alright.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

You mean behave in a way that conforms to your beliefs about how women shoud behave?
*********
Ugh. This is why feminism doesn’t get anywhere- crazy people attacking enemies that don’t even exist.
ALL political figures should make thoughtful and measured statements on subjects that they are fully briefed on- she has failed a few times in this.

#167 SoggyShorts on 03.14.20 at 2:15 am

#28 Neo on 03.13.20 at 5:06 pm
CAD is $0.72. Up form yesterday. If I buy S&P 500 ETF today and CAD rises 30% how can I win?

Canadians take it coming and going in the investment world.
******
Just buy VOO instead of XUU

#168 People Panic on 03.14.20 at 2:24 am

I am re-branding “the toilet paper dilemma” to “TPD”. I expect it to trend. The problem is if the rest of the herd is going crazy you have to save yourself from the actions of the herd, and sometimes that means getting in front of a losing and unnecessary proposition. It means you do actually have to go out and buy toilet paper today, because you might need some, and if you don’t none will be available. This logic applies even if you don’t hoard. You might not be able to get one pack when you need it because everyone else is buying 4 or many more times what they need and trying to sell the surplus on eBay or Amazon for profit.

#169 People Panic on 03.14.20 at 2:31 am

PS who could have possibly imagined buying toilet paper at the Co-Op and then selling it on Amazon could have been a profit opportunity? Co-Op will win. This is short term.

#170 SoggyShorts on 03.14.20 at 2:42 am

#94 BBD (BarkingBlackDog) on 03.13.20 at 7:58 pm
@#84 re:
“Do you [“Sail Away and the like”] care about others or just about yourselves and your bank balances?

Discuss”

SailAway has made it pretty obvious through many, many comments here, that it is all about him, his bank balance, and how much fun he can have “needling” others. He is one of several commenters (the stinky one comes to mind) who display very low emotional IQ. Those types hang here, because Garth allows it.
******
If sail away or any of the other actually useful posters on this financial blog switch to being simpering wimps it’ll be a hard loss.
Aside from virtue signalling what do you contribute?

#171 just snootin' on 03.14.20 at 3:14 am

Here is a link tracking every case (198 as of March 13)
in Canada:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-every-case-of-covid-19-in-canada-1.4852102
starting January 25th 2020.

#172 Johnny Peede on 03.14.20 at 3:55 am

Nope, not quite. Canada was already in recession in October. Trudeau Libs were painting the tape with “job creation” and spitting pandered money. The .3% ‘growth’ they reported was a joke according to most economists. So, let’s not hide behind Sophie’s Virus or the Oil spat. This is a real recession which has been hidden by massive deficit spending.

Will Trudeau pay the rent for poor, also no. There is some fiddling suggested that full time workers ( read unionized civil servants) will have the EI wait period eased and the number of weeks they can collect extended. Your average Canadian working two part time jobs with no benefits will still get fat nothing. The GIG Workers will be just as poor as ever. Those currently receiving social benefits won’t see any less punctuality in pay. Must be nice. More time for flags and blockades I guess.

No matter how you slice it Trudeau has done us a great disservice by allowing many thousands of sick to enter Canada. As an avowed globalist he would have seen even a temporary restriction of entry as lost territory. And make no mistake, Trudeau, Soros, Markell etc., see Canada as a war prize. That’s why when Trudeau announced that Canadians shouldn’t travel out of Canada, he didn’t say anything about restricting in any way the ease of access for people flooding into Canada.

Personally, and this one will make you react , I think the sudden 180 in Health Care announcements was because Trump has closed the US to entry from hot spots and Canada was on that list. By playing silly buggers Trudeau was one unfinished phone call away from Trump closing our border with the US if the Trudeau Liberals didn’t suddenly cooperate.

Suddenly Canada issues a notice that’s not about “flattening the curve” , is it me or are we both stupid? I doubt the sudden notice is because Trudeaus estranged wife is Covid Positive. That makes no sense. There’s a much bigger game afoot.

The Italians are singing their national anthem off balconies for solidarity. Trudeau calls us racist for anything similar.

#173 Dolce Vita on 03.14.20 at 4:57 am

“Hug? – Garth”

Of course you do.

#174 Colin Faraday on 03.14.20 at 5:50 am

‘Big Short’ says “Point of maximum pain has not been reached in order to extinguish the buy the dip mentality”.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/-1.1404714

So, more brutal selling ahead. I’ve said we’ll have to retest the 08 lows before the real washout bottom is in place. We’ll see if that means another 40/50% down in passive (ETF) investments , where the retail punters live.

#175 Howard on 03.14.20 at 7:50 am

#137 dr talc on 03.13.20 at 10:48 pm
during the SARS ‘epidemic’, Toronto was ground zero.
Mel Lastman was mayor, he was interviewed by Aaron Brown on CNN Mel says: “They told me ‘the CDC is here’, I said “who are these people? I’ve never heard of these people’ Aaron Brown literally laughed at Mel on TV.
It looked like Mel didn’t get the memo. But as mayor he knew what to do, and that it had nothing to do with Atlanta

—————————————————

I miss Mayor Mel. Always entertaining.

Can’t say the same about the union-bought communist who succeeded him as mayor.

#176 squished18 on 03.14.20 at 8:06 am

DELETED

#177 Renter's Revenge! on 03.14.20 at 9:21 am

#150 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 12:02 am
Is it just my take, or are the outwardly empathetic proclaimers (OEPs) the ones most likely to ‘helpfully suggest’ Garth ban blogdogs espousing opinions the OEP doesn’t like?

============================

It’s not just your take. It’s the way the Left think. It’s all about Intersectionality. Depending on your identity markers, you are an oppressor of or oppressed by other people. For example, white oppresses black, male oppresses female, straight oppresses gay, religious oppresses atheist, rich oppresses poor and so on.

The more oppressor markers you have, the higher up you are on the oppressor list, and the less you’re allowed to criticize the oppressees lower down. Conversely, the lower down you are, the more you are allowed the criticize and silence those higher up. Their system also requires some sort of authority figure with absolute power to control the behavior of the population.

Hence the appeals by an oppressee (typically female) to the authority figure (Garth) to silence an oppressor (typically male) whenever they feel offended, but it’s perfectly OK for the oppressee to criticize the oppressor.

Hypocrisy perfected.

#178 the Jaguar on 03.14.20 at 9:24 am

It will be interesting to see which Canadian cities win the ‘lottery’ to receive the international flights. I am betting Montreal will be exempt and Calgary will get picked for those incoming planes. Competency. Efficiency. Can do.
And Legault stamping his feet like an angry child has also been a successful strategy for him. They will want to lock down Montreal island for reasons that cannot be spoken.

#179 Stone on 03.14.20 at 9:52 am

#160 Barb on 03.14.20 at 1:15 am
#103 “Stores are Banning Cash.”

—————————————————–
Debit/credit card machines are likely just as dirty

———

Not to mention the cashiers touching each customer’s purchases and then touching the next person’s stuff. Hello potential for passing along something nasty. I’m grateful for the self-checkout. Only need to touch the screen with one fingertip and then when done, use hand sanitizer. Might be a bit overkill but I prefer a bit of vigilance.

PS: noticed how almost all the cashiers in a few grocery stores eyeing customers like they’re walking petri dishes of disease. I do feel for all the service workers.

PSS: i have a feeling self checkout will be even more prevalent after this current situation is done.

#180 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 10:05 am

#157 DON on 03.14.20 at 12:30 am
#90 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 7:34 pm

How much do you think your employees will make on EI?

————————-

Enough

#181 Sail Away on 03.14.20 at 10:12 am

#153 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.14.20 at 12:10 am
#61 Sail away on 03.13.20 at 6:31 pm
#42 mark on 03.13.20 at 5:50 pm

Is Suncor (SU.T) a value trap with price and moving away from fossil fuels globally????

——————

Mark, this might be an interesting exercise:

If you are near a window, look out.

1. Do you see anything that uses, is derived from, or in some way made use of, fossil fuels?

2. Do you see anything that used to use, or was derived from fossil fuels, but has now transitioned to newer technology?

3. Think

——————–

When I look outside of my window I see blossoming Japanese plum trees, daffodils in bloom and tulips just opening up.
In a few days the dogwood and the cherry tree will be in fool bloom.

——————–

Let us know when Hansel and Gretel get there.

#182 Stone on 03.14.20 at 10:16 am

I suspect the birth rate around the world will have increased significantly over the next 7-18 months.

Anyone disagree?

#183 Sanity check on 03.14.20 at 11:30 am

If China did destroy the virus, it was because they boarded citizens in their own homes. Meanwhile in Canada, boards of potentially sick people lining up in Costco for hours. I think our curve will look much different from China.

#184 Grunt on 03.14.20 at 1:00 pm

I’m all for the self quarantine Ryan. We’re without our PM, Premier & Mayor. What could be a happier start to a 3 week March break? Oh wait the kids are off…

#185 Ronaldo on 03.14.20 at 2:00 pm

#161 DRUNKEN STUPOR on 03.14.20 at 1:39 am
Someone mentioned rubber band economy. I just look forward to the baby boom starting later this year… what happens when you lock people in their homes with no major sports on tv ;-)
——————————————————————–
Play cribbage?

#186 Calgary on 03.14.20 at 4:49 pm

Canada should close the border; especially with the U.S.
If any Canadian insists on traveling, stay out until the pandemic stopped.

#187 The Real Mark on 03.14.20 at 7:42 pm

“#178 the Jaguar on 03.14.20 at 9:24 am
It will be interesting to see which Canadian cities win the ‘lottery’ to receive the international flights. I am betting Montreal will be exempt and Calgary will get picked for those incoming planes.”

I suspect it will be the cities in which Health Canada can actually put together teams with thermometers and people with appropriate PPE.

So cities that only receive one flight a day from overseas, might be out of luck.

Kind of sucks because I have relatives arriving from Cuba on Sunwing to a small center that currently only receives a flight or two a day from outside of Canada. Not sure what’ll happen to them.

#188 al on 03.14.20 at 9:17 pm

So tomorrow’s the day when things go down 10% and Tuesday it goes up 9%. Arrange yourselves accordingly.

#189 al on 03.16.20 at 3:19 pm

China is best case scenario atm. All the other countries are much worse as percentage of the population. Many countries seem to be following similar trajectory. Good chance Canada is at between 5k-10K by months end. Yikes. Youre a numbers guy, see numbers below.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1238913530973339648/photo/1