PUBLIC NOTICE: The following blog post has nothing to do with Covid-19. It is virus-free, devoid of any toilet tissue, and no respirologists were injured during its production. You are on your own.
Imagine it’s October. Biden vs Trump. And in Canada the newly-minted Con leader, Peter MacKay, is angling for a no-confidence vote in Parliament prompting a general election. Given the country’s ballooning federal deficit, the oil-induced recession, the Wexit barbarians plus the FN goofs and their economy-crashing barricades, he figures he can win.
So why would the guy be such a fool as to send out this note to his right-leaning supporters?
Buying a home is hard. The world isn’t what it used to be. The cost of housing has skyrocketed across Canada. That might be great for people who already own homes, but it’s bad news for people struggling to make their first purchase. Buying a family home is the biggest investment most people will make in their lives.
Right now, we have a federal government mucking around trying to look like they’re doing something about it, but they’ve come up with a crazy plan to have the government own part of your home.
They’ve increased the limit you can “borrow” from your RRSP – but there shouldn’t be any limit at all. Your RRSP is your money. You should be able to use it to buy your first home. As Prime Minister, I would remove the limit on how much you can withdraw from an RRSP to purchase your first home. I’d also remove the requirement to “pay it back.”
This is a Conservative solution. Government getting out of the way instead of creating more problems with more expensive programs.
Seriously. Has Peter been kidnapped by a bunch of homeless weedy moisters, held down and plied with edibles before coming up with a platform? How can a conservative thinker ever devise such a ridiculous, counter-productive, market-distorting, pandering policy?
First, an RRSP ain’t all your money. A big hunk of it is unpaid taxes. When contributions are made, income taxes are returned. When you take money out, the tax is repaid. By letting people turn their RRSPs into downpayments, never having to return the money into their registered accounts, or pony up the tax, the cost to all taxpayers would be in the billions. In effect everybody would be subsidizing the few in a grossly unfair fashion. Nothing conservative about that.
Second, RRSPs were created to help ensure people can retire without becoming wards of that state. Now that corporate pensions are gone for 70% of the population and the savings rate has collapsed, it’s more critical than ever that folks amass some serious assets for the last third of their lives. Allowing people to take those diversified investments and dump them into a house, becoming less self-sufficient and more dependent on government retirement pogey, is nuts. And it’s sure not conservative.
Third, if PM is worried about people not being able to afford houses, how is throwing billions in taxpayer-subsidized dollars into the market supposed to help? Increasing demand is no way to restore affordability. Quite the opposite. This policy would create a real estate gasbag of Biblical proportion. Pure market distortion. How is that conservative?
Meanwhile a certain germ that will remain nameless in this virus-free posting is busy nibbling away at mortgage rates.. A fiver will be 1.99%, which means home loans could slide into negative territory – less than the inflation rate – boosting purchasing power and suppressing the stress test. Surely a good con would be happy to sit back and let market forces prevail, instead of deep diddling like the Libs love to do.
“I’ve been a card carrying Conservative since the party was formed in 2004,” says one of this pathetic blog’s heathen readers. “Was Reform/Alliance for 15 years before that, I will not be maintaining a membership if this is the type of thing the party now stands for.”
Advice to Peter: the kids are all commies. Ignore them. If they can’t vote with an app, they probably won’t bother. Just be a conservative. That would be refreshing.
* * *
So, you ask, whazzup with Van real estate? Realtors say things are getting way better. Multiple offers. Rising sales. But many disagree. Meanwhile the Horgan Dippers increase housing taxes at every opportunity, chase rich people away and repel foreign buyers (the few who remain).
According to local analyst Dane Eitel, the carnage has only just started. Current condo prices (average $666,000) are down 11% from the peak, and by this time next year will have dropped to $525,000 – a beefy 30% correction, and a big surprise to current buyers.
Spring will bring more inventory, Eitel says, and meanwhile a lot of units bought in pre-con developments years ago are coming online.
The frenzied presale market of 2016 is beginning to rear its ugly head. Those pre sold properties are just beginning to hit the market. Some buildings are seeing 25% of the building for sale while an additional 25% of the building is for rent. Meaning 50% of the building is available in one way or another. This does not bode well for the overall market as this is just one early example.
His advice? If you own a condo in YVR, bail. “This opportunity to sell with less competition is rapidly closing. Eitel Insights urges those thinking of selling to act now before you become another casualty of this upcoming chaos.”
Ah, chaos. Come back tomorrow. Bring Charmin.
223 comments ↓
The gig is up.
12 yrs of rock-bottom rates, shacks that cost half-a-million, consumer and government debt at all-time highs, soaring prices for everything from groceries to utilities, and now it’s pretty obvious that central bankers have lost control of the entire ponzi.
Enjoy the ride, folks.
YOU asked for it, you fully deserve what’s coming…
Peter doesnt actually want to be PM.
Huh. I always thought this blog was quite a ways left of my centrist, middle-of-the road stance.
Fiscal conservatism is incompatible with democracy.
When MacKay wins he’ll shift the party to the left of the Liberals circa 2005 in order to be competitive.
“Politicians are a lot like diapers. They should be changed frequently, and for the same reasons.”
“Politicians should wear sponsor jackets like Nascar drivers, then we know who owns them.”
– Robin Williams (in movie Man of the Year)
Friends are desperately trying to sell property they bought off plan that’s just completed in Vancouver. No bites. The agent that sold the development just dropped the price of the unit she bought next door by $100K setting the new baseline for the other 10 identical units for sale. No bites. Mates moved in to avoid taking the immediate hit. Outraged but trapped… Just about cancelled their lives to throw everything they have at just making the mortgage payments every month.
So another round of Cons who would practice the same fiscal debauchery as the Libs?
Seriously, maybe I’d better start collecting US Dollars.
Couldnt agree more on RRSPs, Garth. Combine it with the fact that by living 4 years out of your primary residence on rent one could reset first time home buyer plan and get RRSP for the house again its a terrible idea. Taxpayers subsidizing house flipping with tax free investments.
What problem exactly it is supposedly fixing?
Peter knows already that people will be switched over to universal basic income. People living in their debt free homes will need less UBI, than people who’s rent will have to be taken care of by the government. It makes perfect common sense.
Garth, are you certain that withdrawing one’s RRSPs for this purpose wouldn’t incur taxes?
I’ve only voted Con or Reform my entire life until the last election. But I couldn’t do it anymore and I’m ready to completely disown them. The fearful pandering of (then) Scheer and (now) McKay will destroy what little restraint there is on government in this country and sink us into a cycle of debt, decline, and degeneracy.
Horrible idea, but unfortunately to win elections, policies like this sell which is sad. I just hope once in government if he manages to win which is a big if this is not implemented.
Anytime government of any persuasion combines “your money” with “our plan”, it’s time to run.
Wow…this new generation seems to think everything should be free and easy. And the way our political system is structured….if it takes appeasing them to get elected—->it will happen.
+1 for vote of non-confidence (which should be an option in voting ballods)….
We desperately need a Canadian Donald Trump, but someone with common sense and chiseled abs would not be bad etiher given the competition. Garth, would you step up ?
Good news – my RBC accounts have been unfrozen. I had a long conversation with the fraud department. It turns out I wasn’t as stupid I blamed myself. Telus had a major security breach that they are finally admitting in private circles. I have a few things to do to tighten up my security which I will do. RBC will reimburse me. I hope my “do not pay” efforts worked. Today was not a good day for me in the equity markets.
I liked yesterday’s caption.
Just let Mckay say whatever is needed to get elected, just like Trudeau did. People have short memories when it comes to policy.
By the fall I suspect their might be a full on housing collapse in the country.
It will be interesting to see if the Repo crisis comes to life. I’m not a dooms-day person, but sooner or later the global debt crisis has to come to collect. Interesting how the September event went mostly unnoticed.
A friend works for liberty group (they run venues like Casa loma, the liberty grand and cibo). All their employees received a letter yesterday. The letter said that because of COVID-19 booking are down so you have 2 options. Option 1 have your pay reduced by 10% or option 2 get lay-off papers.
Second thing I wanted to say. A friend living in China send me video of what they’re doing. Basically the Chinese gov’t is taping doorways shut with that tape that’s used for crime scenes to make sure it’s not tampered. If the tape is removed or tampered with the occupants of the residence get arrested.
My thinking is that the reason cases in China are declining is because people are afraid to get tested. The only ones getting tested are the severe cases where it’s life or death. Mild cases are not being tested.
Roll down the driver’s side window, extend arm fully, and hold on tightly to steering wheel; there’s a hard left turn coming.
Peter MacKay? The same Peter MacKay who flew around on military helicopters while on vacation? Argued for easier access to military-style AR-15 rifles? Defended the notion of capital punishment for 10-14 year olds? Called Belinda Stronach a dog? Fought against the MMIW inquiry? Hangs out with Rebel News? That Peter MacKay?
#211 MF on 03.11.20 at 3:37 pm
#209 T on 03.11.20 at 3:22
Correct. The whole idea that university = useless is pushed generally by tradespeople. Maybe they feel self conscious about it?
One thing is for sure though. In 90% of countries on earth there is an abundance of non-university educated tradespeople who are looked down on and treated as low class. The pay is garbage and work crap. This is how most people on earth live.
That’s not the case in Canada, where, at least in my circle of university educated friends, there is a respect and an appreciation of the practical element of it…and pay. Yet, we have people on here calling university useless while they live in a bubble, and teachers are the easy target.
MF
—-
I see what you did there, trades people dont work weekends to afford condo living in big smoke, they do that on mon to fri salary, while uni. grads are suffering in silence in their kubickle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azr5eOKiXCA
How can a conservative thinker ever devise such a ridiculous, counter-productive, market-distorting, pandering policy?
I seem to recall 0% down and 40 year amortization periods under a certain government.
That was wrong. I opposed it. But it did not constitute a taxpayer subsidy. – Garth
financialisation of housing.
https://www.tvo.org/video/the-financialization-of-the-housing-market
The Housing Gap
In this new documentary series, explore the affordable-housing challenges facing cities in Ontario — and around the world
By Daniel Kitts – Published on Mar 03, 2020
The Global Housing Crisis; Air for Sale
his film sheds light on a new kind of faceless landlord, increasingly unliveable cities, and an escalating housing crisis. The film follows Leilani Farha, the UN Special Rapporteur on Adequate Housing, as she travels the globe, trying to understand who’s being pushed out of cities and why. For additional context, watch Mikael Colville-Andersen’s introduction to Push. You can also read this profile of Farha and watch Steve Paikin’s interview with her on The Agenda.
=====
what the webmasters can’t keep up?
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/super-low-interest-rates-disappear-from-mortgage-comparison-sites/
Williams, Cadre’s chief executive, has said the firm is “democratizing” real estate investment. The small print of its website says its offerings are intended only for people who earn at least $200,000 a year or have a net worth of $1m excluding the value of their home. The company requires a minimum investment of $50,000.
=========
2015 mergers
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/35112-massive-rental-shakeup-starwood-waypoint-colony-american-announce-merger/
2017
rebranding
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/40722-colony-starwood-homes-rebranding-as-starwood-waypoint-homes/
Oct 1, 2019 – Denmark’s -pledged tough laws to control housing costs and singled out Blackstone Group Inc. for “unsustainable
Starlight, Blackstone acquire eight Toronto rental properties
Friday, March 1, 2019
According to Invitation Homes, the company currently owns more than 80,000 homes for lease in 17 markets across the country.May 30, 2019
Blackstone sells off more than $1 billion in shares of Invitation Homes
Selling off 40 million shares at $25.30 per share would bring in approximately $1.012 billion for Blackstone.
In Vancouver plenty of for sale signs. I am amused with construction projects that are taking more than a year to complete. One 2-storey townhouse taking over a year to build, and the billboards keep changing. Lots of land assembly lots for sale. Land lots converted to community gardens, to dodge taxes. I’ve seen counters on “almost sold out” properties increase. Some apartment complexes that were for sale only are now converted to rental units. Nothing is moving. It’s been a while since I’ve seen a “sold” sign. Nothing’s moving. Real Estate stats can’t be trusted, but we all know that.
Little bit rich going after a pseudo policy thought bubble from a guy who isn’t even leader yet. I mean Trudeau is the guy who dreamed up shared equity mortgages.
Going to be a different world in 6 months. Canada does not have the tools to rebound from a recession like the US does.
Anyway, its premature to think of the next election yet. Trudeau still a hero among the hopelessly clueless.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/trudeau-liberals-approval-rating-spikes-amid-possible-wetsuweten-blockade-resolution-poll/ar-BB112bva?ocid=spartanntp
#210 MF on 03.11.20 at 3:26 pm
#205 IHCTD9 on 03.11.20 at 2:55
-Definitely not the real IH. He’s too smart for a comment/thought pattern like that.
MF
__
Actually, IH happens to believe that Schools should hurry up and get on the WWW asap. It’s the best way to reach everyone at their own level, and at their own speed, regardless of where they live.
My eldest is learning French over the www. for like 80.00/course. His progress is shockingly fast – he can absorb the stuff at his own rate, and take the test the minute he feels ready.
If High School was run like this, he would have been done before his 16th Birthday.
I know your folks are teachers, and you think they’re great. That’s cool.
I however, feel they are slow moving dinosaurs with a big appetite and are long overdue for and upgrade.
It’s like we’re still making payments on an ancient $2000.00 B+W tube TV when there are 8K HDR OLED’s on the store shelves for 25.00.
Not even mentioning that the government is broke…
I agree, it sounds like Mr. MacKay is trying to keep housing prices bouyant. To lower housing prices and reduce demand, manufacture low cost, compact, cost efficient alternatives. I’m banking on seacan housing in a rural field. I will live in the demo. Imagine… a forever home for under $30k on a 20 x 40 gravel patch with a 100 year lease. Canada… more glacial till than brains.
As a potential first time buyer I would not only be permanently priced out of housing, I would be subsidizing well funded boomer retirements.
A million dollar RRSP withdrawal for retirement spending and travel would become tax fee.
Very simple: sell million dollar home and invest the million. The returns will pay the rent and then some for 4 years. After 4 years, one is a first time buyer again so empty million dollar RRSP and buy house again with it. Keep the money from the first house sale invested because it would then be a fully tax free withdrawal. In some cases peoples OAS would not be clawed back either since eventual RRIF withdrawals could be replaced with lower tax capital gains.
It would be like an RRSP for contributions and a TFSA for withdrawals.
Okay, so I have some questions about Peter’s plan:
Obviously the plan is targeted at ‘young’ people maybe those with more than $35k in their RRSPs but maybe less than $50k. That demographic is young, craves home ownership, and really, the lost income tax on a $50k withdrawal after 3 to 5 years of contributions? Better sooner rather than later.
But the letter cited above doesn’t specify limits. So, for someone with 20 years compounded growth, and say $400k in their RRSP, that could make a serious difference. And provide for a lovely retirement cottage.
Would also allow a tax free escape hatch for a looming tax liability for hefty RRSP holders. There’s actually a lot to like, here.
But I’m sure that it is complicated, and ol’ Pete and the Real estate agent ‘brain trust’ that is advising him likely haven’t though this through.
Wouldn’t it just be easier (and more profitable) to increase the TFSA contribution limit to $10k per year?
The frenzied presale market of 2016 is beginning to rear its ugly head. Those pre sold properties are just beginning to hit the market. Some buildings are seeing 25% of the building for sale while an additional 25% of the building is for rent. Meaning 50% of the building is available in one way or another.
——–
Who still thinks housing is immune from a downturn?
TSX – 14,270.09 (-4.6) level from 2006-2008
Dow -1500 points again
DOW is going to flirt with 10,000 by the end of 2020.
“A bottom won’t be reached until investors lose all hope,”
Warren Buffett says it took him 89 years to experience something like this…
This plunge looks a lot like the ones that rocked stocks in 1929, 1987 and 2008 — and if it keeps tracking, look out…
The dow needs to fall at least in half, back to 2008 levels or below. Why? Because the issues that caused the 2008 meltdown were never fixed. In fact, they are much worse today! Debt has doubled at least!
Watched this in 2008, it’s like don’t panic, don’t panic, don’t panic, then people say F you, I need to protect what’s left of my retirement. There’s a lot more elderly people in the market today than 2008…0% of the US economy.
The elderly were forced in by these artificially low rates as the Fed worshiped Wall Street and forced them to eat their seed corn or enter the Wall Street Casino. Now they will be crushed — but no bailout for them — that is for the big banks only and Mom and Pop retiree will pay for it.
Trudeau sets a pretty low bar…
By letting people turn their RRSPs into downpayments, never having to return the money into their registered accounts, or pony up the tax, the cost to all taxpayers would be in the billions. In effect everybody would be subsidizing the few in a grossly unfair fashion.
————————————————-
I just want to scream. When will this end? Why is no politician anywhere, at any jurisdictional level, talking about the unfairness of renters and savers subsidizing these kinds of policies year after year after year? Yes I know, not enough voters in those two groups, but it’s still got to be 20-30% of the electorate. An excellent base to build from.
I left Canada years ago and unless this crap ends I will never return.
A look at annual changes in the number of California leisure and hospitality workers, a category that covers many tourism workers. (Source: St. Louis Fed)
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/03/09/how-the-coronavirus-burst-californias-tourism-bubble/
Dow Jones U.S. Hotel & Lodging REIT Index
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djushl?countrycode=xx
You have to offer free stuff to get elected. If MacKay can offer the right free stuff to the right people he can get elected with 33% of the popular vote. Ask me how I know.
Garth, with all due respect, but I’ve been reading a couple od years before that in Toronto was coming a huge amount of condos on the market (20k units if I remember right) and that the prices would fall, and nothing like that happened. Remember that there are still buyers that are waiting to get into the market, there are speculators, and most importantly there are a lot of people who migrated and still migrate to Canada. Also a very important factor is being priced out. The young families who can’t afford a house will buy a condo. Hence the rise of the condo prices lately. Under the current monetary policy the house prices won’t go down and tgere won’t be a carnage. I am sorry but sometimes it sounds like motivating reasoning when I see quotes from guys that say “there’s gonna be a carnage”. After the latest events I can only say that the votes are too valuable to start a housing market correction, especially when the house ownership is at 70%… Got to keep the majority happy!
Thinking loudly here.
How about allowing the first time home buyers to withdraw their RRSP in full for a down payment with deferred taxes and later tax the capital gains on the sale of the house.
In this way it would help the kids to have a assured roof over their and their families heads and the Govt gets to recover the taxes at the time of the sale is win-win for all.
#10 Classical Liberal Millennial on 03.11.20 at 3:42 pm
“Garth, are you certain that withdrawing one’s RRSPs for this purpose wouldn’t incur taxes?”
I’m not any kind of expert but the way it works now is you have to pay it back, annually in equal amounts for 15 years. If you do not pay an instalment you are deemed to have withdrawn that amount and pay taxes on that.
The money is effectively frozen. It incurs no capital gain or interest inside the RRSP (by which the government would benefit).
Anyone is free now to cash in their RRSP, pay the withholding tax and buy a house. The MacKay plan would allow a tax-free withdrawal for down payment purposes, and no forced repayment. Nuts. – Garth
Peter Peter Peter , why don’t you just walk the floor and become a liberal!!!
Geez I have voted Con all my life,…but I will never vote conservative again!!!
He’s worse than Scheer!
#38 JohnnyAB on 03.11.20 at 5:18 pm
Condos are being traded like Upper Deck baseball cards were in 1991.
They are majority heavily speculated on, rented out, and leveraged to the hilt. There is an element of foreign speculation too (anecdotally my landlord is offshore, can’t speak a word of English, and I won’t say from which country).
The needs of “families” were discounted as useless in 2009, and have been ever since. What’s more important is the real estate specuvestor, developer, insurance company, realtor, this shill and that shill.
Btw, we were correct. In a real market, based on actual reality, condos should be 200k instead of 700k. Nobody thought they would be dumb enough to leave interest rates at such a low level for too long. Or, that the real estate industry would grow to become such a parasite. Now we are stuck between a rock and hard place with no clear exit.
MF
A Realy smart guy named David Kostin, Chief Equity Analyst of Goldman Sachs Says The S&P500’s Bull Run Is Over.
‘So why would the guy be such a fool as to send out this note to his right-leaning supporters?’
It’s called ‘pandering’, and McKay is obviously getting bad advice from his handlers who think the only way to take out the Liberals is beating them at their own game. Wrong, wrong, wrong. The Libs are digging their own grave at the moment. Their inaction on the blockades and ‘secret agreements’ with FN chiefs will hurt them more than they know. If the conservatives want to get back in the drivers seat they need to do two things.
1. Start acting ‘Bad Ass’. That’s the kind of leadership we need right now. It worked for Trump because people were sick and tired of creeping political correctness and a lack of intestinal fortitude on pressing issues. The same approach can work here minus the orange fake tan, blonde comb- over hairdo, and incessant tweeting. The country wants leadership that knows what it stands for on serious issues. If the media or anybody else even brings up the abortion issue the right thing to do is to immediately tell them to blow it out their arse. Talk about pressing issues only and don’t get dragged into the mud of this lame mediocrity. It’s 2020. Mainstream people respect others choices and beliefs. Don’t hang back with the brutes.
2. If you can find a ‘Bad Ass’ woman candidate, heavily credentialed in economics and common sense, so much the better. Millennials may need an app to vote, but women have significant influence in households. If you think otherwise remember the Jim Prentice misstep of “Math is Hard” and its subsequent result. Rona Ambrose would have been an interesting choice, even with mean old Stephen Harper behind the curtain on policy issues. Unfortunately I don’t see a lot of others who fit the bill. Maybe Caroline Mulroney if she can be toughened up sufficiently. Or perhaps Tulsi Gabbard could be approached since it looks like she will be looking for some new direction soon, but I can see her on the ticket with Biden if he and his handlers are ‘smart’.
With all the trouble raining down on us we need someone like Winston Churchill. Tough, inspiring, and visionary. With a good speech writer who understands the impact of an inspiring turn of phrase. Man or woman, that’s what we need now, not somebody who panders to the house horny. Wake up Pete.
As an FYI, Jaguar isn’t ‘stock piling’ toilet paper, but given the current events in Italy may have taken measures to ensure there is no danger of running out of my favourite Italian Expresso coffee. Mercy.
The “moisters” also don’t have any money in their RRSPs.
@#22 Djumbo
“Peter MacKay? The same Peter MacKay who flew around on military helicopters while on vacation? Argued for easier access to military-style AR-15 rifles? Defended the notion of capital punishment for 10-14 year olds? Called Belinda Stronach a dog? Fought against the MMIW inquiry? Hangs out with Rebel News? That Peter MacKay?
+++
Yep. THAT Peter MacKay
If only he would vacation on the private Island of the Aga Khan, dress up in a turban in India, spend billions more than any other Prime Minister in the history of Canada….then and ONLY then could he hold a candle to the idiot running this country into the ground…..
This charade of fighting to make houses more affordable for first time homeowners is ridiculous.
Now it all makes sense as to why they were all fighting to NOT be Prime minister in the last election.
Well said, Garth. If the Cons want to give us a reason to vote for them, bad policy isn’t one of them. Lets remind, it was also the federal Cons who wanted to change mortgage regs to 30 year terms during the last election. Such policies would goose the value of real estate on paper at first, but with higher values comes higher systemic risk in a credit market where systemic risk is arguably too high now. Why on earth should Canada sign up for a real estate led recession, when its so plainly avoidable?
Its like the Cons have learned nothing since their 40 year nothing down days, with this penchant will to demonstrate that they are still not fit to lead. Say what we will about a T2 government, it can always be worse. We say another example of what that looks like today…
reminds me of a digital pic of myself holding up a nice salmon that I had caught. Brought it into work to show my partner who looked at it and said “I can make that a LOT bigger with photoshop.” So he did. When he brought it up on the ‘puter to show me it was grossly oversize … as I was having a chuckle another coworker walked by and said “that’s a nice one.” Ooh la la ..
#6 Reece on 03.11.20 at 3:36 pm
Friends are desperately trying to sell property they bought off plan that’s just completed in Vancouver. No bites. The agent that sold the development just dropped the price of the unit she bought next door by $100K setting the new baseline for the other 10 identical units for sale. No bites. Mates moved in to avoid taking the immediate hit. Outraged but trapped… Just about cancelled their lives to throw everything they have at just making the mortgage payments every month.
—–
So they bought a place they couldn’t afford, with plans to never take possession. Sounds intelligent.
I hope they’re mad at themselves, not the boogeyman that “made them buy it”.
#42 MF on 03.11.20 at 5:41 pm
But we are where we are because of all that happenend and still happening. If the specuvestors bought half the condos, what will prevent them doing so in the near future? We ARE in a real market, where the prices are at the leves we see and since the RE market is sustained by the current policies (monetary + immigrational + political) I really don’t see anything changing soon except people gettimg more indebted (and reach if you bought before and sell now)
If MacKay runs the conservative party like he handled the Justice files when last in government then lord have mercy on us all.
#22 Djumbe on 03.11.20 at 4:15 pm
Peter MacKay? The same Peter MacKay who flew around on military helicopters while on vacation? Argued for easier access to military-style AR-15 rifles? Defended the notion of capital punishment for 10-14 year olds? Called Belinda Stronach a dog? Fought against the MMIW inquiry? Hangs out with Rebel News? That Peter MacKay?
Yes, that Peter MacKay. Best the CPC could come up with given the population of probably a million qualified and educated true conservatives…none of whom are even thinking of running.
“….Advice to Peter: the kids are all commies. Ignore them. If they can’t vote with an app, they probably won’t bother…….”
_____________________
What makes you think this irrational, feverish, short of breath, home-buying strategy originated with the skip-the-dishes, death-by-selfie crowd?
Clearly, this unabashed proposed pillaging of your financial future was incubated by the ever self-interested, uber-lobbying Canadian Bankers Association.
At least we know at least one CPC candidate is already bought and paid for by the Big Five on Bay St.
(Better hide the keys to the Cormorant SAR helicopters again….)
We have a perfect chance here to practice rebalancing.
It’s a decent time because fear has been priced into the markets but optimism hasn’t.
Instead of avoiding your portfolio and letting paralysis take over, actively track the percentages. Then rebalance. Few people actually do. Be one of the few, then in a year or two we can talk about being rich instead of whining about the bad hand life gave us.
Who’s in?
Ironically, high-end houses on the West Side of Vancouver seem to be movng again. I’d say Hong Kong money, as it is not subject to the Mainland’s capital controls and there are plenty of dual citizens who won’t have to pay a foreign buyers tax.
DELETED
As far as I can tell, if you want to win an election, promise the world and worry about actually fulfilling any of those promises later.
As far as the idea of letting people borrow from their RRSP, untaxed goes: if that happens, I should be able to pull an equal amount out of my RRSP when I retire, tax free. I’ve already bought my house, borrowed from my RRSP, and am in the process of putting it all back.
Well, anyway, you know it was another Conservative finance minister who approved 40 yr mortgages.
And boomers will never retire….
“Every election cycle is just a pre auction sale of stolen goods.”
“Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance.”
And my personal favourite;
“Every decent man is ashamed of the government he lives under.”
H L Mencken
My vote is up for sale. Out of principle the highest bidder gets its.
Investment wise I am approximately back to where I was Jan 1, 2018.
FOMO keep in this downward spiral, I should have sold more when the warning signs were there. Oh well, live and learn.
I am happy that I moved 8% to gold miner stocks last April, that worked well.
I also took another 8% to cash mid November, in hindsight also a wise move.
Anyway will have to let it ride with the rest.
Cash and equivalents and dividends will let me ride out this storm for a minimum of 4 years and possible up to 8 as long as the divi’s hold and they should as they are mostly bank stocks.
GLTA
#45 Sean on 03.11.20 at 6:00 pm
I have, and I would quickly max it if this would become a reality.
Forget the arsewipe. I ordered me, the wife and four kids a family pack of them COVID 19 Space Suits and a 45 gallon drum of that spray stuff that come with individual pump cans.
Only cost me $24,000 USD plus $5,000 for the drum of liquid spray. They threw in the pump cans and said to ignore the Radiation Symbols pasted on the our side of the barrel.
We all live in Hyder, Alaska and are preparing for the virus.
Kind of reminds me of my dad and I building the fall out shelter in the basement back in 1962.
Never used the fall out shelter but it’s definitely going to be different this time. I just asked my brother in law.
#35 Howard on 03.11.20 at 5:07 pm
By letting people turn their RRSPs into downpayments, never having to return the money into their registered accounts, or pony up the tax, the cost to all taxpayers would be in the billions. In effect everybody would be subsidizing the few in a grossly unfair fashion.
————————————————-
I just want to scream. When will this end? Why is no politician anywhere, at any jurisdictional level, talking about the unfairness of renters and savers subsidizing these kinds of policies year after year after year? Yes I know, not enough voters in those two groups, but it’s still got to be 20-30% of the electorate. An excellent base to build from.
I left Canada years ago and unless this crap ends I will never return.
—————-—————-
As if renters are subsidizing new homeowners. High income earners in Canada are subsidizing everyone. Period. And I would bet the overwhelming majority of high income earners own at least one property.
My bet is the majority of renters in Canada are in the group that pays close to zero net taxes. Further, this policy would allow them to enter the housing market with tax free cash. Fail to see how renters would be losers in all this.
Also never understood how savers have been crushed. Savers should have made out like bandits, an 11 year bull run finally ended. Unless by savers you mean pin heads that have all their money in GIC or HISA’s.
FWIW I think the policy is BS but renters with rrsp savings would be the big winners.
“Meanwhile a certain germ that will remain nameless in this virus-free posting”- Garth
—————————–
My bad, didn’t read that before posting. I usually read the comments section from the bottom up first, then try to guess what Garth’s blog is about. Tend to run at about a 75% accuracy…
I will save my xxxxx related comment for another day.
Funny how you can get a new iPhone every yr but it takes 10yrd to get a vaccine.
US researchers offering $5000 to get infected and then try a test vaccine. That a better deal than raising your rrsp.
The government doesn’t want the local people to buy a house they want that illegal money from people that don’t have a 9 to 5 job so the price for a shack stay at 1.7 million or more for a junk . When will you people realize that. The sooner the better. Take back are city now
I’m wondering if MacKay even knows what he’s saying? Can he possibly be saying you can take $ out of your rrsp and not pay it back, unless he simply forgot to say it will be taxed coming out? Can he understand rrsps if he thinks it’s all your money?
“I’d say Hong Kong money, as it is not subject to the Mainland’s capital controls and there are plenty of dual citizens who won’t have to pay a foreign buyers tax.”
———————————–
Watched a U-toob vid when Kyle Bass interviewed an Chinese expat billionaire (Mike something?) that the said this is one of the primary reasons the mainland will never relinquish control of Hong Kong.
He told Kyle the CCP management funnels ridiculous sums of $’s (multi billions) through the H.K. back channel to a small group of CCP insiders. And we wonder why global RE prices went nuts in the past 10 years…
Don’t you love this….
No need for Indians to put up blockades the government does it for free.
What about non aboriginals?
Why is it that we have to say we are giving money to aboriginals do they feel left out?
During a news conference in Ottawa today, Trudeau said the federal government is “pulling out all the stops” to help Canadians through the global health crisis. The package includes $275 million for additional research, such as vaccine development, and $200 million for federal medical supplies, supports for Indigenous communities and education efforts.
Dow and TSX at 20% drop today. Any more is a bear market. Election in November. Bought a blue chip ETF for the first time since Boxing Day 2018. Will buy more Friday at noon.
Man things are moving fast. Manufacturing consent…now Corporations are allowed to declare and enforce quarantines.
…
Fed announced a billion dollar tax grab reaction today. Think of it…years of all that legal weed revenue and HST, and carbon tax, yet your kids and their teachers still must shell out-of-pocket for basic classroom supplies. But if we only paid more yet more taxes…maybe. Sure.
…
You think this government cares about your health? When their action alone caused this health crisis. (Allowing rail blockades)
So as I heard on the news Italy is now closes all stores except grocery stores and pharmacy. So to all the fools who bought toilet paper. I think you should have bought food. ?
Wonder what will happen this week to grocery stores?
Forgot the link…
…
You think this government cares about your health? When their action alone caused this health crisis. (Allowing rail blockades)
Imagehttps://www.cbc.ca › player › play
Web results
Propane shortage in Quebec endangers hospitals, retirement homes | CBC.ca
23 hours ago · A shortage of propane in Quebec could hit the provinces’ essential services hard in the next few days as the CN strike
#45 Sean on 03.11.20 at 6:00 pm
The “moisters” also don’t have any money in their RRSPs.
——
I thought about that too. This could be a grab for the millennial vote, with no real consequence to home values.
But, there’s always the savers who have been on the sidelines for years renting and stuffing their portfolios. They wouldn’t be the demographic you’d expect to light their hair on fire and drain it all to buy a house though.
Would they?
Gas at 91.5 in the sticks.
What are you Albertans seeing?
I’m ok with Peter MacKay’s proposal so long as the money taken from the RRSP is taxed at whatever rate it was originally “untaxed”. People should be able to do what they want with their money. But wait, isn’t it already the case now that people can take money from a regular RRSP whenever they want so long as they pay the tax? So this means that the proposal doesn’t in fact change anything.
But I agree with Garth that as stated the policy proposal seems to be to let people put money in an RRSP and save the taxes, then take the money out to buy a house without paying taxes, and never pay it back. This would be a huge tax loophole. So then how do you plug it? The government would have to be looking to at least get taxes on whatever the house sold for down the road based on the percentage that was originally paid for by the RRSP. In other words the RRSP continues to own whatever percentage of the house it paid for and taxes are due when it is cashed out. Complicated. Very complicated.
And then what about someone like me who has RRSP’s but no mortgage? Can I use my RRSP money to buy part of my house and then invest the money in my TFSA? Why do only some people get this tax break?
If the government was truly concerned about housing prices, what they need to do is increase supply by removing zoning restrictions, and maybe find a way to counter the development cartels that fund municipal elections. Carma, for example, owns pretty much all the land around Calgary, Edmonton, and Regina and has for years. This allows them to control the rate at which lots are made available and maintain nice hefty profits. Since there really isn’t a way for the government to increase the availability of lots, the competition has to come from all the inner-city R-1 properties, which should immediately be rezoned R-4 or higher. That way all the shanty 100 year old shacks sitting on valuable land could come down and be replaced with townhouses and low-rise apartments. PS this would be good for the environment, city budgets, transit, and congestion as well as it would reduce the distances people have to drive to get to work and the long roads and utility runs that must currently be built. Yes, over the next 50 years Canadian cities would take on a distinctly more European feel, but would that be a bad thing? I’ve been to The Hague, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, London, Oxford, etc., and these are very livable cities. But they are all row houses. But the row houses are quite livable if you can deal with a rectangular box 20 feet wide and 3 stories tall.
#65 Mattl on 03.11.20 at 7:00 pm
You are conflating two completely separate issues – income tax policy and differential government incentives for home ownership versus renting. Nice attempt at muddying the waters.
There is no moral or ethical reason that a person who eschews home owernship, whether through necessity or preference, should have to subsidize those who choose to pursue it. That’s exactly what this idiotic policy does, added to the raft of already existing such policies already in place. Where does it end?
Garth I agree this idea will inflate housing, cause people to blow their retirement savings and cost taxpayer lost revenue.
Unfortunately, we live in an idiocracy were people are so stupid they actually voted for Justin Trudeau twice because he has nice hair. Something as complex as this will be lost on the average Canadian voter who is as dumb as a rock.
This is why Alberta needs to leave Canada.
Next bright idea from McKay – make mortgage payments on a principal residence tax deductible while still maintaining the capital gains exemption.
I expect one of the parties will propose this eventually.
Garth Bay St us calling for $20b in stimulus spending, way more than Trudeau trotted out today. Should have named the virus after some foreign country then he would have opened the pocket book. He hates spending money on Canadians.
So if he does what his masters want you can bet he will come taxing for it. Wouldn’t all those oil sands and lng and pipeline projects look good now.
There is no way out of this for the country.
Instead of increasing demand, the government should be focused on increasing supply by building houses and apartment blocks. One can easily build 1 mln units in Toronto and the price will not move much.
Did I just see a classic “head and shoulders” curve on lots of stocks and ETF’s today?
So, is this the signal that a bear mkt has begun?
Is Peter McKay forsaking traditional Conservative values JUST to ensure getting elected? How sad!
“Where have all the leaders gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the leaders gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the leaders gone?
Opportunism has picked them every one
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?”
Australia is going to give 750 AUD to 6.5 million people and will be spending 1.2% of GDP to reboot its economy.
An economy based on natural resources and real estate.
Sounds familiar? Do we think we’re so ‘special’ in the frozen north? We aren’t.
As if we don’t have enough troubles already:
2 Americans and 1 British national killed in rocket attack on base in Iraq.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/politics/americans-killed-iraq-rocket-attack/index.html
Joe Clark 2 VS T2.
It would be a huge gift to those with large sums in their RRSP. That would include me. If it was as stated unlimited with no repayment or taxes it would be like giving me a massive 6 digit tax break. I would be fine with that if RE wasn’t so ridiculousness overvalued that it still wouldn’t be worth it with a 6 digit tax break.
I doubt it would help prop up the housing market much. Most people who are buying houses have little in their RRSP anyway and the amount they have they can already use in the current scheme. Fact is most down payments for first time buyers come from foreign earned cash or mom and dad.
2 JohnnyAB on 03.11.20 at 6
The coming recession and job loss will.
And it’s not Canada, but worldwide I’m talking about.
All these mortgages have to be paid. Who will be paying them with job losses? What can central banks do? Rates are already too low.
When that happens, properties will start to be dumped. A little trickle, then more and more as word gets out. Condo speculators are only there for quick money. When that happens the market will be flooded. Remember everything is debt/leverage.
People are always stupid. Stupid on the way up and euphoric. Stupid on the way down and terrified. Same as the stock market. Bet on it.
MF
“Just be a conservative. That would be refreshing.”
-SO true.
—————————-
Then there is at Bloomberg:
“Scotiabank Sees Canada Recession Likely Without Fiscal Stimulus”
-Many predictions, few facts. Still, they say “mild recession”. We’ll see. Cdn economy is plucky, you can never tell.
—————————-
“Unnamed Pandemic” has, as of this night, put Italia into what amounts to Martial Law per latest PM Conte decree. Grocery stores, pharmacies and essential transport only, all the rest closed (excl. essential services of course).
We are not even supposed to do our “passeggiata” or have Serie A Calcio – like the Pope is not Catholic anymore.
The poor morose, normally cheeky Italian MSM on Twitter seems to only post images of empty piazzas across Italia. CATCH 22: we have our country back from the tourist hordes BUT we cannot go out to enjoy it. Sometimes, there is no justice in this World.
-If there were any doubt Italia’s GDP will go down the tubes for awhile, doubt erased.
—————————-
Ciao di, Serie A calcio in mourning, me.
Si MacKay est voté, les Conservateurs souhaiteront qu’ils n’aient pas laissé partir Scheer. (in French so Peter won’t know we’re talking about him)
Smokey & Dolce Vita, it’s nice to have you back!
—
It’s good to see some governments taking the “Official WHO Pandemic” seriously now. BC’s Health Minister and Chief Medical Officer went into “high vigilance” mode over the weekend.
From my brief looking around, it looks like Sacramento, CA and Germany are giving up without a fight, though. Isn’t Italy teaching them anything?
Dane Eitel is a fake con? Well, let’s lock him up. As if he predicted COVID-19.
I love these so called data analysts who put up a ruler and say, hey look, the line is going down and my predictive linear regression shows more of a drop to come, then announce time to sell as if those are the underlying fundamentals as to why anyone owns real estate.
Yeah, it is bad all around and Putin basically nailed the US like a sniper…timing and all.
And yeah RE has been hot up until about 48 hours ago, but something tells me that is about to come to an end.
Since the talk about “$200 away from insolvency” has been floating around Canada for what seems like 5 years now, I can’t imagine a writedown dragging out.
This is going to be sharp and violent and the debt issues in Canada are about to be resolved through insolvencies.
Oh, and Kenny announcing a number of our energy companies saw their share valuation go down by as much as 90 per cent in the last 48 hours…
Given the debt situation, this is way worse that 2008.
This is the opposite of “commie”. It gives the biggest benefit to those who have received the biggest tax break. Younger RRSP contributors who, mostly, would have received a low tax benefit from their RRSP contributions (minimal as they are likely to be) would receive the least benefit. People who don’t earn enough to contribute to their RRSPs would get jack.
#83 John in Mtl on 03.11.20 at 8:11 pm
Did I just see a classic “head and shoulders” curve on lots of stocks and ETF’s today?
So, is this the signal that a bear mkt has begun?
—
Closing see of red, post see of red. New, but not pandemic yet.
The horror show starts when Italian job comes to the American theatre. Keep your spirit high and your cash ready.
I can’t see the sea from the see. Blame the red fog.
No, I was not having a heart attack due to what looks to be a nasty recession that has started pretty much around the entire globe including the US.
Forget about housing policies. Our governments need to get moving on shutting borders. These idiots want to take a wait and see approach and the economic fall out is going to be that much worse.
WHO is right in saying a lax approach is being taken although Seattle and San Fran are starting to wake up.
Listen to Trump tonight. He will show you how everything is okay.
#82 Average canadian
Instead of increasing demand, the government should be focused on increasing supply by building houses and apartment blocks.
———————————-
The government does not build houses and apartment blocks. Nor do they build trust, confidence or hope. In some ways, we’re kind of on our own.
Sure, nobody thought Scheer and the Conservatives were up to the task. But I now really wish they’d been given the chance because there’s a monstrous vacuum in Ottawa now.
@ #64
….and be sure to stock up on food that has a production date BEFORE the virus exited stage left! :-)
let’s ask Ryan what it means that the TSX broke it’s 50 year uptrend line… lol back to the 2008 lows?
now that Trump has barred travel from Europe for 30 days, that’s going to do wonders for sentiment.
anyone owning stocks now is asking for punishment
#17 Westcdn on 03.11.20 at 4:04 pm
RBC. Telus had a major security breach that they are finally admitting in private circles.
————————————-
Holy Toledo! me too! Spent an hour at RBC yesterday to clear up where my telus monthly payments went when apparently telus says they didn’t receive payments. Turns out there was an unknown-to-me (second) Telus “payee” account number on my bank account. No idea who did that; certainly not me! And telus wouldn’t reveal the name on that second account once I gave them the bogus account number. Thanks for posting that Westcdn!
As for McKay’s “platform”, Rona Ambrose wouldn’t have done that. Still time to let your name stand, Rona. Please. Because Garth has already said no twice.
Take all your money out of your RRSP and use it as a downpayment, never having to pay it back!
Government buying an equity stake in your house!
Government doing everything possible to keep inflating this market! What’s next, seriously … 40 year mortgages, 50 year mortgages … 100 year mortgages!
I have to move because my landlord sold the townhouse (that I lease, new owner wants to move in) for $610,000. He bought it 4 years ago, before it was built for $375,000. We moved into it when he took possession. I currently pay $1,700 a month. He was happy, we were happy.
When he first bought it he said he wanted to keep it until he retired and his 4 kids moved out of his current house. This rental is a great house for just him and his wife. We were happy to rent it long term, have zero no plans to buy.
BUT NOW HE SAYS THAT HE CAN’T KEEP IT WITH THE PRICE OF IT HAVING GONE THRU THE ROOF! HE WANTS THE MONEY. I CAN’T BLAME HIM, I BLAME THE GOVERNMENT FOR INFLATING THIS GAS BAG WITH THEIR HOUSING ‘AFFORDABILITY’ POLICIES. NOW I HAVE TO MOVE AND PAY $2,200 A MONTH FOR A DIFFERENT OVERPRICED TOWNHOUSE THAT A DIFFERENT ‘INVESTOR’ PAID GOOBS OF MONEY FOR.
INFLATED HOUSING PRICES LEAD TO INFLATED RENTAL MARKETS. WHEN THE HELL WILL THE GOVERNMENT GET THE MESSAGE?
Oh McKay!
People voted for Trudeau to rid of Harper, then voted for Trudeau to keep miniHarper out again and if McKay is the leader, I will not vote Conservative. They need to clear out that party and go back to the PCs.
AND How many moister have tons of RRSPs?
My friend and his wife make good money and they rent and have investments and can spend money as they wish. Do you think they will give that up to buy a 700K – 1M+ average…NO way in Hell was his reply. And they have a young child in a one bedroom and are moving to…wait for it, a luxury two bedroom condo.
The other low income renters (cause all renters must be low income or they would have bought a house, right!). They have tons of money in RRSPs. I am positive some have good investments and the others not so fortunate can’t save because they pay high rents as do their homeowning counterparts.
The US housing market can correct, the markets can correct…but not the unstoppable Canadian COLD weather housing market. New housing starts are down in Feb.
All is fixed though Trump just cancelled all travel to Europe (UK not included). What about Asia, India etc. etc. India just reported virus cases – that is a Country to watch.
Banks are calling for big stimulus packages…on behalf of the consumer of course.
AND Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage lauds the strong housing market.
https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/housing-market-best-able-to-weather-the-coronavirus-storm-of-all-the-economys-sectors-royal-lepage.
FFS!
SM. When’s the next flight to Nectonite and do they allow dogs?
When interest rates reach minus 2%, I am going to buy up three more houses next to mine and then put up Hotels!
His policy would work if gains on personal real estate became taxable. I think he is hinting at that. Sort of a half truth, with BS to follow, that I have gotten very used to hearing from Conservatives in the country.
With Kenney doubling down on the oil industry and Doug Ford changing over the car license plates that don’t work at night…… its over for the Conservatives, their claim to fiscal Mensa status is a myth. A big one.
NBA season cancelled, flights from Europe banned and Tom hanks tests positive. Seems like more than the regular ol flu to me.
#79 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 03.11.20 at 7:57 pm
Garth I agree this idea will inflate housing, cause people to blow their retirement savings and cost taxpayer lost revenue.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That’s the whole point. Keep the housing bubble going at all costs (that’s where they’ve hidden the hyperinflation). Destroy everyone’s future. Deprive them of their life savings. Destitute people are easier to control.
So why would the guy be such a fool as to send out this note to his right-leaning supporters?
because he thinks there’s no such thing as right-leaning
if Peter MacKay’s supporters were right-leaning, they would support the idea that families improve their own situations. For example by building up the family’s RRSP – you contribute when your income is high and you draw it down when your income is low.
No new laws need to be changed – just a change in attitude at the top.
I draw an analogy between Peter MacKay and Elizabeth Warren who is running to be the Democratic candidate for President in the United States.
I watched her lecture “The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class”. Her lecture spoke to me. She talked about the American family where the father was the main wage earner and the mother raised the children. She said the family had a hidden reserve – the father supported the family but the mother could step in, if she had to. Her point was that the American family is in a weaker position today than it was 50 years ago – a point which applies to the Canadian family too.
Elizabeth Warren and Peter MacKay both want to improve the position of the family. In the case of Peter MacKay, he offers home ownership as the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
There are really two things – one is improving the position of the family and the other is buying a house. Of course they are related – home ownership is seen as the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, it’s the finish line of a long race. But as Garth points out improving the position of the family and home ownership are two different things – a family can improve its position without buying a house just as a family can hurt its position by buying a house.
Tom Hanks infected. NBA cancelled. Market collapsing. This is getting serious folks.
While we were busy with RRSP for downpayment…
Tomorrow will be a new day.
#111 45north
I watched her lecture “The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class”.
——————
Yes Elizabeth Warren would have been a good replacement for Trump.
Running Peter MacKay means more T-2
Maybe Doug Ford would run for PM.
Peter MacKay did not send out this note to his right leaning supporters – it was sent to everyone on the Conservative mailing list. The MacKay campaign sends these e-mails 6 of the 7 days in the week.
I am pretty sure Peter MacKay is not the first and will not be the last politician to propose something without fully thinking it through. It’s not like this is Conservative Party policy.
Lastly, Garth I really hate the headline – FAKE CON! During the last leadership race Michael Chong did a Reddit AMA – it was unbelievable to me the number of posters who simply wanted to tell him that we was not a “real” conservative because he supported a carbon tax.
Politics needs less of this nonsense. It is not your place or anyone else’s to determine who is a real conservative. This is a boneheaded proposal from the MacKay team – nothing more. It does not disqualify him from calling himself a Conservative.
“Well that escalated quickly”
Ron Burgundy
Going to be a tidal wave of news tomorrow regarding cancelations, shutdowns and new restrictions.
Film industry is in the process of shutting down operations in B.C. as we speak.
#85 eduardo de la conche on 03.11.20 at 8:18 pm
Australia is going to give 750 AUD to 6.5 million people and will be spending 1.2% of GDP to reboot its economy.
An economy based on natural resources and real estate.
Sounds familiar? Do we think we’re so ‘special’ in the frozen north? We aren’t.
*********
YUP we even follow their NPM New Public Management bullsh$t!
Virus attacks healthy human
Virus attacks unhealthy human…
Virus attacks healthy market
Virus attacks unhealthy market…
55 Sail away on 03.11.20 at 6:25 pm
We have a perfect chance here to practice rebalancing.
————-
Both TLT and SPY going down this week. Good luck to all of us with rebalancing.
Makes sense. Buying people’s votes with their own money. Sounds pretty conservative to me.
Besides, what if they change the rules, you withdraw your entire RRSP account to buy a house and then sell it the next day? Tax free withdrawal of your whole RRSP?
Spock….there is no intelligent life on this planet. Beam me up, get Scottie to the bridge with his Scotch and let’s get hammered. Mister Zulu….when we have passed out fire all photon torpedoes on the planet and let’s get the hell out of here!
Trudeau…..I mean Kirk out!
#55 Sail away on 03.11.20 at 6:25 pm
We have a perfect chance here to practice rebalancing.
It’s a decent time because fear has been priced into the markets but optimism hasn’t.
Instead of avoiding your portfolio and letting paralysis take over, actively track the percentages. Then rebalance. Few people actually do. Be one of the few, then in a year or two we can talk about being rich instead of whining about the bad hand life gave us.
Who’s in?
—————————————————
I’m in with all the rest of my precious bonds (acc 7%). :) Looks like still enough founds for about three more similar days as it was today… After that, I plan to turn off the laptop and go on vacation!
If Peter McKay is our “Joe Biden” who is our “Bernie Sanders?” Whats up doc?
People…its MacKay not McKay. You want us to take your prognostications seriously at least try and get that right.
If I was still trying to be politically relevant I’d be watching Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland. Mark is out of a job at the moment and Chrystia is ideally positioned to transition up. Can you imagine the two of them leading the Liberal Party of Canada?
It would be decades before you rugged individuals who identify as Conservative would even sniff at being elected back into power.
“Not everyone who is infected with COVID-19 has symptoms, and some people will only exhibit very minor symptoms. “
“About 80 per cent of people will not get really sick from this,” Dr. Samir Gupta, a respirologist, told CBC News.”
What should you do if you have symptoms?
“If you are under 50 years old and otherwise healthy, just stay home and take care of yourself. Definitely don’t go to hospital, says Dr. Andrew Morris, an infectious disease specialist at Mt. Sinai Hospital in Toronto.”
“The hospital’s like the worst place for anyone other than people who are really sick and who will need hospitalization. Just being infected with a viral infection is not a reason to go to hospital.”
“To date, children do not seem to be getting very sick from COVID-19. Most healthy kids will get over it in a few days as they would a common cold or the seasonal flu”
This virus is nothing. Good thing they didn’t call it “Instant Flaming Death 666 Plague” or we’d have peeps jumping off of buildings.
#108- To reinforce Garth’s post, Listen to Ross Kay, Howestreet.com – Mar 11.
Someone should just turn off the bloody internet until this thing passes.
Anyone that has a few kegs of dry powder best use it now. This virus will ultimately pass with no fundamental changes in anything. It’s pretty much all folks freaking out over nothing. Get the virus, get sick, get better – that’ll be the story for any infected peep who is reasonably healthy.
Buying opportunity of a lifetime for those with cash at the ready.
So we’re not doing the handshake thing anymore?
O.k, too risky, they said.
A new day, a new bunch of rules.
Try bumping elbows.
I’m not doing that, I thought.
My boss tried to give me a fist bump this morning, so I flung an elbow instinctively.
Elbowed my boss in the ribs.
I could get used of doing that each morning…
M45BC
I think I just watched the last Oilers game for the season.
and there it goes…
stocks still getting cheaper.
new target 18000 dow. grim. but when italy comes to usa the economy stops DEAD
easy kill on sds at yesterday’s big green close. 10% today. bet half the farm, woot. 3rd time. account smashing new highs.
i will do it again if there are any big green days left, but prob a string of red days until the final clearance sale.
—————
aside, if china’s numbers were even slightly true, this will all be over in a couple months. stocks would be back at ath by now.
thinking they are giving up, pretending it’s gone, sending everyone back to work letting the old die to save the economy.
Follow blog..but gt’ s posting lately are mid day avoiding turmoil scrutiny..transparencey here for followers works…whats up with that..in politics aversion diversions work..but hey..the world is rattled here big
re #76 IHCTD9 on 03.11.20 at 7:29 pm
Gas tonight 84.9 in Cowtown.
F56AB
I can see it now:
In order to address the great toilet paper crisis of 2020, Justin Trudeau has scheduled a news conference.
He will stand there and assure us that the government recognizes the problem and will act to protect vulnerable Canadians from all the poop that is flowing in the country
He promises he will boldly stand with his government in the path of all poop that is about to hit the fan!
Of course, being as politically clueless as he is, he doesn’t understand that this will only accelerate the problem
All of this was known in 1967.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp5JCrSXkJY
#92 Long-Time Lurker
Italia has no choice, all we have left now to give is our national will to beat this “unnamed pandemic” and kick it back right in the nards.
-Italian economy will be in tatters and that’s a given now.
-For now you are correct in what you say but I would not underestimate the Americans nor the Germans. Their people will demand something exceptional be done soon enough. The Americans have their patriotism and the Germans their resolve, they will rise to the task as we have here in Italia. I wish them the best.
———————————-
-AND CANADA, STAY SAFE, nip this “thing” in the bud (listen to your health authorities) and don’t damage the economy in the meantime by panicking.
Ciao d’Italia, still IL BEL PAESE.
Just read the news… Strange days when the wealthy, elite, socialites, governments, travellers are succumbing to a virus that the humble, meek, and self reliant may never know.
Life in the boons has seen no change. On anything. Ever. If there was no internet, I would simply melt into the percolation of life and death in the forest. A duck molted in the backyard, the only down in my portfolio.
Anyway, thanks for the litmus. Wear goggles.
***The same Peter MacKay who flew around on military helicopters while on vacation? Argued for easier access to military-style AR-15 rifles? ***
The AR-15 is very specifically NOT a “military-style” rifle, that’s why civilians all over the place have one (and should be allowed to).
It is, indeed, a new day.
Confluences are on few people’s minds. But they should be. That will be the next stage.
tldr; as a species, we need to stop eating bats, camels, and monkees. Seriously..
#125 Ustabe on 03.11.20 at 11:15 pm
People…its MacKay not McKay. You want us to take your prognostications seriously at least try and get that right.
If I was still trying to be politically relevant I’d be watching Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland. Mark is out of a job at the moment and Chrystia is ideally positioned to transition up. Can you imagine the two of them leading the Liberal Party of Canada?
It would be decades before you rugged individuals who identify as Conservative would even sniff at being elected back into power.
———————————–
Sure. Freeland has a voice like nails on a chalkboard and said it was “offensive” to criticize honour killings. Meanwhile a rich Davos globalist like Carney is hardly the image of a successul politician in the age of populism.
As for McKay/MacKay, I can’t be bothered to learn the spelling of his name. Just another globalist shill.
It’s refreshing to see Trump put the health and safety of the citizenry first, even if it impacts the economy.
I won’t hold my breath for Twinkle Toes to do likewise.
Trump shot from the hip. It was a poor response to a growing beast. – Garth
It’s refreshing to see Trump put the health and safety of the citizenry first, even if it impacts the economy.
I won’t hold my breath for Twinkle Toes to do likewise.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
A fitting analogy for for the way the Donald has handled the current pandemic.
https://iconicphotos.wordpress.com/2009/08/15/robert-stanfield-fumbles/
As a renter and saver, I am quite fed up with governments favoring consumption over investment. And now this alleged ‘conservative’ Peter MacKay has dreamt up a policy straight from the Liberal playbook. Enough already! Max Bernier has my vote, once again.
@#124 We’ll all be out of work
“If Peter McKay is our “Joe Biden” who is our “Bernie Sanders?”
++++
This is Canada, we elected our “Bernie” Trudeau…now stop complaining and put that damn pink shirt on before I have you charged with verbal harassment…
Well Trump certainly “calmed” things with his knee jerk Presidential Announcement last night.
People scrambling to make flights out of Europe. Newsflash travellers : Drive to England, cough, sneeze, spread the virus there, then fly to the US.
Cant wait to see what that does to the markets today…..2000 point drop kids?
We’re entering into historic times.
Hey Garth, hard for me to differentiate your message from Michael Hudson’s (on the perils of debt and the private sector banks as the “honest broker”) while putting aside the politics for now. Is it that debt relief in itself is not a cure to continued bad decisions? If it is systemic, and given we’re now aware, I’m struggling to understand where to focus our votes to influence improvements to the debt system…?
@#145 Q2 Class No. 6131 on 03.12.20 at 8:26 am
As a renter and saver, I am quite fed up with governments favoring consumption over investment. And now this alleged ‘conservative’ Peter MacKay has dreamt up a policy straight from the Liberal playbook. Enough already! Max Bernier has my vote, once again.
_____________________________________
lol dude, consumerism has run the show for western economies for generations.
@#143 Howard on 03.12.20 at 7:49 am
It’s refreshing to see Trump put the health and safety of the citizenry first, even if it impacts the economy.
I won’t hold my breath for Twinkle Toes to do likewise.
Trump shot from the hip. It was a poor response to a growing beast. – Garth
___________________________________
Garth, big waste of time trying to reason with howard.
blinders are firmly welded to his face. only sees what he wants to see.
Trump shot from the hip. It was a poor response to a growing beast. – Garth
——————————————–
Growing beast, indeed.
NBA leaving all that money on the table is unfathomable. I thought at least they would play in empty arenas to keep the more lucrative TV money in place.
Futures down another 1,200 points.
#134 Sask to AB on 03.12.20 at 12:58 am
re #76 IHCTD9 on 03.11.20 at 7:29 pm
Gas tonight 84.9 in Cowtown.
F56AB
___
Nice!
Crazy too. I remember paying .50 in the 80’s when I was making student wage of ~3.25/hr
I think student wage right now is 12.00/hr
I wonder if gas has ever been cheaper compared to incomes.
I don’t agree with what trump did but at the same time every case in Canada could have been prevented with mandatory testing from people getting off planes.
Sorry You spend 200 million on research and how much would testing everyone who got off a plane cost? Peanuts. Even Bill Gates is donating money for tests kits duh?
And again if you come from an infected country put you on a bus and quarantine them for two weeks. Again the cost is cheap.
Test and quarantine Keep it simple stupid.
Where are all the Gold bulls?
I thought gold was going to be the only thing left standing in the financial apocalypse.
All I see is Gold in the red.
I find it ironic that Trudeau is on the left and the media up here is criticizing him on his tepid response.
Meanwhile, Trump is on the right and he is…
being criticized by the media for his tepid response.
The common denominator is who is in charge and their lack of nanny-state checkbook wielding
#132 bdwy sktrn on 03.12.20 at 12:01 am
and there it goes…
stocks still getting cheaper.
new target 18000 dow. grim. but when italy comes to usa the economy stops DEAD
—————————–
That would represent a 40% fall from the high. Hard to envision that happening without a decent bear market rally in the interim. But I guess we really are in unchartered waters. The pandemic isn’t like past crises that could be “cured” through fiscal and monetary policy.
#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.20 at 8:29 am
@#124 We’ll all be out of work
“If Peter McKay is our “Joe Biden” who is our “Bernie Sanders?”
++++
This is Canada, we elected our “Bernie” Trudeau…now stop complaining and put that damn pink shirt on before I have you charged with verbal harassment…
———————————-
Trudeau is just like Bernie?? LOL do you think everyone nominally left of centre is the same?
No, Trudeau is like Obama or Macron – a globalist dilettante unconcerned with the middle and working classes.
Bernie, whatever you may think of his ideas, actually seems to care about the wellbeing of his compatriots.
#129 IHCTD9 on 03.11.20 at 11:43 pm
Anyone that has a few kegs of dry powder best use it now. This virus will ultimately pass with no fundamental changes in anything. It’s pretty much all folks freaking out over nothing. Get the virus, get sick, get better – that’ll be the story for any infected peep who is reasonably healthy.
Buying opportunity of a lifetime for those with cash at the ready.
Bingo, Spot-on, much ado about nothing by silly sheeple, EH!
@#157 Howeird
“Bernie, whatever you may think of his ideas, actually seems to care about the wellbeing of his compatriots.”
++++
Err no. He’s concerned about the well being of his comrades.
He’s a closet communist.
Trudeau is rumoured to be Castro’s illegitimate son…. so I guess they may have something in common.
There’s ZERO reason to believe any other president would have handled this crisis better than Trump and I can’t think of other world leaders who are doing such a great job either. If you believe a different choice of words from Trump would have sent the market higher today, well, it just shows you’ve been buying the dip much too early (not a sign of good judgment on your part, not Trump’s). The market may well be higher a year from now, but for the pros to buy, it has to go down enough to make the risk/reward a lot better. My guess is, we’re close, 21k on the Dow may just attract enough buyers and is within 10% of the bottom. That means that 3-4 years from now, when we start to make new highs again, you’ll have made a nice return for the risk you took.
President Xi in 2020! – Garth
President Xi in 2020! – Garth
President Putin 2037 !
Panic has always been humanities Achilles heel!
Here we go again…the sheeples are at work…
#28 IHCTD9 on 03.11.20 at 4:37 pm
Actually, IH happens to believe that Schools should hurry up and get on the WWW asap. It’s the best way to reach everyone at their own level, and at their own speed, regardless of where they live.
——————————————————————
I’m with you on this one IH.
Not to sound arrogant, but high school was a drag for me. All lessons were slowly taught in order to have everyone understand them. I would have probably finished high school at 14 if given the opportunity. I didn’t care for parties, smoking, dating or skipping school. Besides playing sports and part time gig, school was it for me. That would have allowed me to finish university earlier, start working earlier, pay taxes earlier, and hopefully retire earlier…
The schooling system needs a major overhaul…
Anyone that has a few kegs of dry powder best use it now.
———————-
wait. patience. not a washout yet.
getting close but the bulk of the bad virus/economic news has not hit yet.
#154 Captain Uppa on 03.12.20 at 9:21 am
________________________________________
there’s a ton of margin calls going out today to the poor suckers holding stocks.
gold’s getting sold off.
you know what else?
XLB – long canadian bond etf.. down.. yup. down.. wow
they need to sell that off too with rates collapsing yet again.
this market 1 month ago was the second most expensive and leveraged market in history next to 2000. it’s all unwinding in one shot.
the TSX can’t even open some ETF’s .. XRE hasn’t even traded 1 share. (most reits -10%+ already)
That means that 3-4 years from now, when we start to make new highs again
————————————
??? the flu will die out eventually. swine flu was about a year.
once it does you will have a few weeks/months, not years to see the rebound.
Trump shot from the hip. It was a poor response to a growing beast. – Garth
What would have been a great response?
Mr. Market says containment, not blaming a ‘foreign virus’. – Garth
Tomorrow is Friday the 13th. Anyone up for a Harley ride to Port Dover?
Good clip on the oil showdown: (and markets)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kD5yKB8HyHc
The world has lost it’s mind. I’m just going to keep loading up on shares, because either 1) this delusion will end as quickly as it came on and I’ll make a fortune in the next few years as the market reverses course 2) the world will end, in which case I don’t need cash or shares, I need ammo, food, and sex workers.
Trump shot from the hip. It was a poor response to a growing beast. – Garth
What would have been a great response?
Mr. Market says containment, not blaming a ‘foreign virus’. – Garth
—————————————————–
If Trump had offered to do anything genuinely helpful, the Democrats would have labelled it a Russian Plot and vowed to fight him with everything they had every step of the way.
The US response is doomed by general idiocy/dysfunction rather then the specific idiocy/dysfunction of its’ president.
I’m glad some of you can be so sanguine about the bloodbath in the markets. Balanced portfolio? Doesn’t matter, bond funds have also taken a beating. Fun watching 3 years of gains disappear in 2 weeks. Nothing much to do now but hold on and ride it out, I guess.
#167 Ubul on 03.12.20 at 10:29 am
Trump shot from the hip. It was a poor response to a growing beast. – Garth
What would have been a great response?
Mr. Market says containment, not blaming a ‘foreign virus’. – Garth
—————————-
Mr. Market can’t be consoled, sorry to say. Blaming Trump is just silly. We all know where Corona began and that equities were hugely overvalued coupled with lousy fundamentals in many parts of the world, insane debt everywhere and anemic growth. Corona was just the pin to prick the bubble. Looks like an historic drop…30% in 2 weeks and no end in immediate sight.
Hang on to your hats.
Turns out Dog have another supper power you might not know about. link has 8min audio link in it.
CBC, Quirks & Quarks
Your dog’s cold wet nose may help it ‘see’ in infrared
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/mar-7-new-technology-gives-amputees-a-hand-a-big-dam-proposal-your-dog-s-heat-sensitive-nose-and-more-1.5486967/your-dog-s-cold-wet-nose-may-help-it-see-in-infrared-1.5486972
So, emergency declared today or tomorrow?
#168 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 03.12.20 at 10:41 am
Tomorrow is Friday the 13th. Anyone up for a Harley ride to Port Dover?
____________________________________________
I was considering dusting off the Harley and taking off in the afternoon as the morning is showing rain. High of 6-7C will need my rain-gear and a heavy jacket. My wife thinks I’m loco for taking the bike out but there are only two Friday the 13ths this year and the next is in November. No entertainment or beer tents I’m hearing for tomorrow. The best is Friday the 13th is in August 2021 and my wife will definitely come on that ride. Oh what the hell YOLO.
#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.20 at 10:02 am
President Xi in 2020! – Garth
President Putin 2037 !
President Trump 2020 RIP ?
Trump no talk Market Up.
Trump talks Market Down.
OK now I get it.
Will somebody please give him a Big Mac and some fries every day for the next month.
Mr. Market says containment, not blaming a ‘foreign virus’. – Garth
Even though outside of the originating country it is a “foreign virus”, as a matter of fact.
Different political fractions prefer to call or omit facts selectively, depending on their partisan political interest or ideology. Then this partisan political angle becomes the measuring stick and the rubber bone for the dogs to fight for and chew on.
China reports just 15 new cases yesterday and 6 of those came in from outside. 77% (and counting) of those infected have recovered, they say.
Some would question the figures but on the face of it they have almost completely contained the virus and are lifting restrictions and getting back to work.
I have not seen this mentioned on CNN or CBC.
https://www.france24.com/en/20200312-china-coronavirus-epicentre-records-single-digit-cases-as-restrictions-eased
So the good news is it can be contained. But the bad news is it may take almost stopping activity for about six weeks.
Ummm global just reported that Justin Trudeau and his wife are sick with flu like symptoms and in quarantine
Well, that was interesting to wake up to. TSX down a bit over 25% for the year and back to Jan. 2016 levels. That’s enough to get a good shakeout. Don’t envy the fincancial planners this morning trying to calm down their clients, especially the geezers like myself. Of course the world will blame Trump.
The very stable orange genius has been thoroughly exposed to COVID19, at least twice. And has attended several rallies, shaking lots of hands in the days since. America needs a Trump travel ban.
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/trump-says-not-concerned-he-was-exposed-to-coronavirus-by-brazilian-official
This time it does in fact appear to be different. Company I work for is 45% off 52W high, has given back 8 years of returns in 3 weeks. And today is a bloodbath and the virus hasn’t even really hit the US yet.
This thing is going to get way worse before it gets better and it’s a mess right now.
Not suggesting anyone panic but jesus this is ugly.
Mr. Market says containment, not blaming a ‘foreign virus’. – Garth
————
It is a foreign virus. It came from Wuhan China. What’s so hard to understand about that? Or is political correctness so persuasive now we can’t point out the bleeding obvious?
And what does that fix? – Garth
Barf. After my genius move going all equity DiY last year and almost reaching +30% around Valentine’s I’m now actually down almost 1%
As pissed off as I’ll be if this gets even worse and pushes back my FIRE from 2021 to 3 years(or even longer?), it could have been worse: it could have happened 12 months later -after I pulled the trigger and shut down the company.
****hey blog dogs!****
Those of you who manage the finances: how and when are you telling your spouse how bad this is?
I know this may sound rather crass but it is best to avoid panicking in the market especially if your well diversified. Every time the market goes down it returns with a rebound. This is a golden opportunity to buy some of those higher priced stocks at a severe discount. Just had a look and me thinks its almost time to pull the trigger on some of those beauties either tomorrow or early next week. Just hoping the Orange man keeps his little mouth shut. For Gods sake he needs to be tested for Covid-19 and a cognitive mental stability test. Hmm 14 days of isolation for Trump, wouldn’t Pence love that!
I can’t help but wonder if the slowdown in China from this pandemic is affecting the Vancouver market? less money being laundered now?
#182 Ronaldo on 03.12.20 at 12:09 pm
Well, that was interesting to wake up to. TSX down a bit over 25% for the year and back to Jan. 2016 levels. That’s enough to get a good shakeout. Don’t envy the fincancial planners this morning trying to calm down their clients, especially the geezers like myself. Of course the world will blame Trump
__________________________________________
Why not Trump blames Obama and every other leader for all of his woes and gaffes.
The Conservatives lost the last election, and in doing such a dumb thing will lose the next election. They never learn and once again have lost my vote. The so called problem of high house prices will only be made worse by such a dumb move. It’s like if you’re stranded in some remote area and suffering from hypothermia so you drink alcohol to get “warmed up”. It dilutes blood vessels so your skin is warmed but at the expense of internal organs losing heat and making the problem worse. As for myself the only real estate I will be buying is REITs like XRE and STWD-NY, both of which are on sale now.
#181 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.12.20 at 12:06 pm
Ummm global just reported that Justin Trudeau and his wife are sick with flu like symptoms and in quarantine
—————————-
Zerohedge is having fun with this.
He needs to take Trump’s lead and ban travel from affected areas.
Every situation is unique. Ours has COVID & Oil ingredients. How long could the recovery take? Any guesses
Italian government is planning to pay the mortgages of the quarantined people (since they have no income anymore). How long until this catches on in other parts of the world?
It’s coming…
Mr. Market says containment, not blaming a ‘foreign virus’. – Garth
————
It is a foreign virus. It came from Wuhan China. What’s so hard to understand about that? Or is political correctness so persuasive now we can’t point out the bleeding obvious?
And what does that fix? – Garth
Well, we can demand as people of this planet that live animal markets be banned. For start.
It’s almost guaranteed that Trump is immune. Same goes for Xi and probably Putin.
All three powers have been expecting an attack like this, and likely preparing for it. Any treatments that make it down to us, the shuffling masses, have usually already existed for years and years–just like technology. Vaccines are technology, after all.
When it’s made public that this is a biological attack, that’s when it will get real. Fiat currency won’t help us, nor will toilet paper.
Here in the Great Land of Cantada, we are only collateral damage.
Where’s TRUMPOCALYPSE2020 when we need him.
He knew.
7 IHCTD9 on 03.11.20 at 3:39 pm
“So another round of Cons who would practice the same fiscal debauchery as the Libs? Seriously, maybe I’d better start collecting US Dollars.”
As I have pointed out several times, you are a text book example of a hypocrite. You openly brag about having a wife employed by the government and then call the Liberals fiscally debauched. Those fiscal debaucheries of the Liberals are going into your household you hypocritical blank, blank, blank. If it wasn’t for your wife’s government job you wouldn’t be the pompous ass that you are. The only debauchery being committed is by you….
Well. $500 billion fed injection. Don’t ever let this junkie come down from the high
So Justin is locking himself in his bedroom and not coming out until the flu thing blows over.
This is Millennial leadership. This is leadership based on voting for a name and pretty hair.
#181 Richmond will be underwater by 2014 on 03.12.20 at 12:06 pm
Ummm global just reported that Justin Trudeau and his wife are sick with flu like symptoms and in quarantine
….
Let’s wait for the test results. Remember, as kids, when some bad actor would try to pass off a handwritten note to the teacher? 21 days quarantine, what will he do with all that free time?
Fear is at a fever pitch right now.
Canceling sporting events halfway through (just happened with a college game in MSG) is making it worse.
Everyone’s anxiety levels, no matter how cool they played it before, is growing quickly.
This is a true catastrophe for financial markets. I’m not worried about my long term 60/40 portfolio, but a worldwide recession of epic proportions could be on the horizon.
#186 SoggyShorts on 03.12.20 at 12:27 pm
****hey blog dogs!****
Those of you who manage the finances: how and when are you telling your spouse how bad this is?
—————————
Daily. Quick market/portfolio update at breakfast is good.
Same thing with employees at work regarding possible repercussions. If we need to start layoffs, they’ll know the reason.
#196 Your Buddy on 03.12.20 at 1:02 pm
———————–
Hey, YB, you seem a little unhinged… not to mention an ass.
Opportunism is not hypocrisy; not even close.
#185 Deplorable Dude on 03.12.20 at 12:23 pm
Mr. Market says containment, not blaming a ‘foreign virus’. – Garth
————
It is a foreign virus. It came from Wuhan China. What’s so hard to understand about that? Or is political correctness so persuasive now we can’t point out the bleeding obvious?
And what does that fix? – Garth
———
Come on now. Don’t you all know. This is all Obama’s fault.
Not really. The orange dotard is to blame. 110%. Make that 120%.
#187 James on 03.12.20 at 12:30 pm
. … Just hoping the Orange man keeps his little mouth shut. For Gods sake he needs to be tested for Covid-19 and a cognitive mental stability test. Hmm 14 days of isolation for Trump, wouldn’t Pence love that!
*******
If you think the giant Cheeto wouldn’t just try to run the country using his Twitter account and fox news I’ve got some bad news for you….
#201 Sail away on 03.12.20 at 1:28 pm
#186 SoggyShorts on 03.12.20 at 12:27 pm
****hey blog dogs!****
Those of you who manage the finances: how and when are you telling your spouse how bad this is?
—————————
Daily. Quick market/portfolio update at breakfast is good.
Same thing with employees at work regarding possible repercussions. If we need to start layoffs, they’ll know the reason.
———
But, but, but, but, but, who will prostrate themselves in front of that statue of yourself at work if they all get laid off? I’m sure the new owner that buys your business at pennies on the dollar will toss it out into the rubbish bin where it belongs. Lol.
Market recoveries following major downturns (S&P/TSX)
Year (event) Rtn Rtn in the next year Ave rtn next 5Y
1974 (oil embargo) -25.0% +18.5% +22.3%
1981 (double-digit inflation) -10.2% +5.5% +13.7%
1990 (Gulf war) -14.8% +12.9% +10.8%
2002 (“Tech Wreck”) -12.4% +26.7% +18.3%
2008 (“Subprime crisis”) -35.03% +30.7% +8.7%
Info compliments of S&P & TSX
2020 (Covid-19) TBD
#196 Your Buddy on 03.12.20 at 1:02 pm
7 IHCTD9 on 03.11.20 at 3:39 pm
“So another round of Cons who would practice the same fiscal debauchery as the Libs? Seriously, maybe I’d better start collecting US Dollars.”
As I have pointed out several times, you are a text book example of a hypocrite. You openly brag about having a wife employed by the government and then call the Liberals fiscally debauched. Those fiscal debaucheries of the Liberals are going into your household you hypocritical blank, blank, blank. If it wasn’t for your wife’s government job you wouldn’t be the pompous ass that you are. The only debauchery being committed is by you….
———————————–
He’s not a hypocrite for taking advantage of the nanny-state nonsense brought in by the Trudeau government. He would be a hypocrite if he told other people NOT to take advantage, but he isn’t doing that.
You don’t seem to comprehend the difference between opposing something in theory and using that same thing to your advantage if forced upon you.
Now I’m upset, and we have seasons tickets. :(
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-suspends-regular-season-due-coronavirus-concerns/
#201 Sail away on 03.12.20 at 1:28 pm
Thanks, I just did and it went a little something like:
“Well that sucks, but losses dont count unless you sell?”
-Right
“And you’re not selling, no matter what?”
-Right
“So stop looking at your damn phone.”
-Right
BTW, if you were sitting on about 5-7% cash which of these(if any) would interest you?
Xiu, XRE, xuu, vig, xef, vee ? That’s my simple PF with USD versions in our RRSPs, and I’m very certain now that i dont have the stomach for individual stocks.
#154 Captain Uppa on 03.12.20 at 9:21 am
Gold has to compete with everything else on sale right now. I think it has room to pop though, just isn’t the best opportunity at the moment. In truth, besides some large cap oil stocks and a couple ETF’s here and there, nothing is… unless one wants to day trade and buy in on a positive morning trend… maybe.
It’s a volatile market. Maybe Friday or Monday will bounce back but it won’t be sustained, no rally here. This isn’t a market for beginners, to put it mildly and the bottom? I thought it would shake out close to 30% from the peak but that was 3 weeks back. There are still more shoes to drop and the market narrative won’t be positive until maybe June? Q1 earnings and employment will decide whether its flowers or showers.
The market is now pricing in the cost of government intervention (or lack thereof) to slow down or contain this virus. Containment is going to be hard, I think impossible for the U.S. considering the variables. It’s not just the shit show with diagnostic kits (millions promised this week, where are they?) or the delays with the labs to run tests, the CDC management and tech fails, the Trump appointees looking like deer in headlights, the decentralized and non universal health care system, the sub par education system, the discrimination throughout their systems and society as a whole, when we look beyond all that and look at China for example and say, “it can be done” or look at South Korea’s health care system and say, “with excellent treatment, we’ll be ok, CFR at less than 1%, mostly old people, it will be ok… this still remains to be seen.
China has yet to re-open their airports, borders and schools and full throttle their economy. When everyone jams the streets again, will there be clusters? How will the government react to new clusters and cases coming in over their borders, it remains to be seen. No matter what happens there, its a new normal. Temp scans and government apps could be there to stay. Same with South Korea. When we look at the numbers:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
7,470 out of 7,869 cases in SK are still active. They are doing a great deal of testing and no doubt catching a good portion of cases early, and it will lower the CFR but by how much, we don’t know yet until these cases close. South Korea has excellent systems but the market needs to give it another week or two before pricing in best case scenarios.
What’s the expression, “there are more shoes to drop on this centipede” as John McCain used to say. We saw it at Wuhan, in Daegu South Korea, in Italy… there will be more cities and possibly nations in lock down before this virus season is over if there is one. The pattern is clear. The virus spreads in a city or nation and infects, doesn’t need to be in the 10’s of thousands, just enough numbers to overwhelm some hospitals, people don’t get the treatment, oxygen or beds they need, the ICU’s, health care pros get burnt out and sick, the CFR pops and government has to step in. No choice really, unless there is no choice (think poor nation).
Last night, we had a sick and weazy Trump shut down air travel to Europe. The NBA and NCAA suspended their seasons indefinitely. It’s likely only a matter of time before mass gatherings are suspended. Sports, entertainment, conventions, it will all take a hit and the markets are pricing it in. Pricing in low 30’s oil, a recession and there will be more shoes to drop in the future.
Where will Spain, Germany, France and the U.S. be 2 weeks from now? Look at the numbers on the link above. It took 8500+ for Italy, a nation of 62 mil to close their borders. Look at Switzerland, one of the commerce capitals of Europe per say. 8.5 million people, 20th largest GDP economy in the world. How many more cases will it take for their government to react? What will that do to the European financial supply chain if Switzerland commerce takes a virus holiday? They have 857 cases, added 215 this morning. Where will they be in 1 or 2 weeks? Again… more shoes to drop.
Ah, it’s time for a Turner Investment plug. In the industry, Turner Investments is what you would call a turtle. It’s not get rich quick, there’s no moon chasing, no crazy small cap investments and pie in the sky leaps of faith off the edge of a cliff but with a diversified portfolio of REIT’s, ETF’s, some fixed income and bonds the turtle grinds away and wins the race. Diversified portfolios = wealth preservation in times like this. Bonds don’t look sexy but they saveth one’s asseth in times like this.
If Garth and Doug or Ryan can come close to predicting the bottom of this thing and re-balance at the right time when capitulaton hits, whether its sector by sector or at times all at once (the time for growth stocks in oil for example, is now), wealth is preserved for the recovery because there will be one. Even plagues end, we should know this. Rabbits… a good number of them won’t be around, too many snares and predators from wild speculation but the clear eyed turtle wins the race.
@Unhinged Trader, post #198:
it’s my understanding that he’s been diagnosed as having this COV 19 and is in self quarantine. He’ll most likely survive it, but by being in quarantine won’t spread it to someone who could die from it, like an elderly person of one with a weak immune system. Thus he is setting an example of what you should do, if possible, should you be infected with this virus and actually is showing leadership. In other words, follow my example.
@James, post #187:
Crass or not, you are quite right. If you’ve been on a buying blitz recently, in the short term you’ll look like a fool if the markets go down further which is a definite possibility. A year from now will probably be a different story. You’ll look back and say either (1) I’m glad I scooped up equities back then when they were dirt cheap or (2) I wish I had bought back then in March 2020 when equities were dirt cheap. If you chose (1) you’ll think you’re a genius and look at joining MENSA if you aren’t already a member. If you chose (2) then you’ll probably blame someone else like governments that screwed up in managing a crisis that was difficult to manage, or someone else who supposedly screwed up. It’s never my fault that I let a good opportunity slip by.
#196 Your Buddy on 03.12.20 at 1:02 pm
7 IHCTD9 on 03.11.20 at 3:39 pm
“So another round of Cons who would practice the same fiscal debauchery as the Libs? Seriously, maybe I’d better start collecting US Dollars.”
As I have pointed out several times, you are a text book example of a hypocrite. You openly brag about having a wife employed by the government and then call the Liberals fiscally debauched. Those fiscal debaucheries of the Liberals are going into your household you hypocritical blank, blank, blank. If it wasn’t for your wife’s government job you wouldn’t be the pompous ass that you are. The only debauchery being committed is by you….
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Hey YB, thanks for the pick-me-up. In the midst of fearing for the economy and my job security, I had nearly forgotten that Ms IH has that sweet high paying, DB pension delivering, great benefits offering govy job.
Her job ain’t going anywhere. Don’t matter if the entire economy goes kaput – under Trudeau, all those public servants will get a raise instead of pink slips!
Whew! I was starting to get worried, but you are right – I got no worries.
The dumber the Liberals get – the richer I seem to get LOL!
Thanks for reminding me.
I never got any of this free cash under Harper!!
the “ppt” ?
…”the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced today that it will be offering $500 billion in 3-month repo loans to its primary dealers (Wall Street trading firms) today at 1:30 p.m. That $500 billion comes on top of the $198.10 billion the New York Fed loaned the street in its morning repo operations. Tomorrow, the New York Fed said it will offer its primary dealers another $500 billion in a 3-month loan and another $500 billion in a one-month loan, bringing the two-day total to potentially more than $1.7 trillion being offered at super low interest rates. (The Fed will also offer its regular one-day loan of $175 billion tomorrow.) ”
https://wallstreetonparade.com/
And just like that our elite rulers imprison us in a global open air tax farm.
Their dream come true.
Well this is a panic
Bought some blue chippers today yields over 7 percent.
And then guess what it dropped some more lost $600 when I thought we hit bottom, not selling I will collect dividends till it’s over.
Garth we need some more words of wisdom!
Listen to Mauldin economics 4 top analysis are all buying blue chips, say you will never see these bargains again.
Just # 199,
“Let’s wait for the test results. Remember, as kids, when some bad actor would try to pass off a handwritten note to the teacher? 21 days quarantine, what will he do with all that free time?”
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Re-organize his sock drawer…
France has just shut down all its schools, same Ireland etc etc. It’s also planned a massive financial and social boost. Here? Crickets.
I fear that Canadians and their government still haven’t understood what’s coming. Except for TP shortage…
The French are also planning, post crisis to relocate industry and depend less on foreign countries.
We can still believe here we’re better, not European blablabla.
Or, we can be pro active, work from home (if possible) avoid public gatherings etc and THINK about others, especially the elderly and the frail. This is not the time tobe selfish douches.I hope I’m wrong.
#205 Stone on 03.12.20 at 2:16 pm
But, but, but, but, but, who will prostrate themselves in front of that statue of yourself at work if they all get laid off? I’m sure the new owner that buys your business at pennies on the dollar will toss it out into the rubbish bin where it belongs. Lol.
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My enjoyment of active business is waning. Why continue all these logistics, gigantic payments to CRA, responsibilities to employees and continuous liability when the money’s not needed?
Spending the days light trading/running/biking/sailing and hanging with the bird dogs is tempting.
The new owner could do as they want, naturally- it’d be their business.
#215 TurnerNation on 03.12.20 at 3:02 pm
And just like that our elite rulers imprison us in a global open air tax farm.
Their dream come true.
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That won’t work. My firm is putting procedures in place for 30% layoffs by end of month if certain milestones are missed. More if needed.
Cash is oxygen to a business; when contracts are cut, so are jobs… immediately.
Anybody here who’s employed should be concerned.
No 206 James, market recoveries
Yes James, and I’ll bet every time they dropped interest rates by about 4-5%
What are they going to do now????
WTF is going on with bond ETFs?
XBB down 4.46%
VSB down 5.13%
Makes it harder to feel good about rebalancing the old 60/40 portfolio.
Remember the words of the late Leon Levy:
“For most people, the most dangerous self-delusion is that even a falling market will not affect their stocks, which they bought out of a canny understanding of value.”