The storm

When the storm hit, she couldn’t take it. ‘Get me out,’ she said. ‘Sell it all, before it goes to zero.’

Her advisor did. He turned paper losses into real ones. She took the remaining cash and put it into a high-yield bank account paying nothing. Eventually, with no more investment income and only her public pension, she spent it all. Six years later she was bankrupt. At 82. Meanwhile everything she sold had doubled in value.

True story. My relative, in 2009. It was painful to watch how emotion replaces reason, and the inevitable outcome.

Today, same challenges. Things were bad enough with the virus insanity, then Putin decided to crush capitalism by diddling with the oil market and warring with the Saudis. Crude collapsed Sunday night, global stock markets sold off big, bond prices surged, yields collapsed, the VIX spiked and now confusion reigns.

Let’s dig in a little.

First, the bug. There have been (as I write this) 111,700 cases in the world. Of those, 63,000 people recovered. They’re fine. There are 45,000 folks who still have it, 40,000 of them with a mild dose. Just under 6,000 people (out of 7.7 billion) are serious. Some – mostly the old, with underlying conditions – will die.

Wash your hands. You’ll be fine.

Now, oil.

The virus dropped demand by about a million barrels a day as China shuttered for two months. So prices were weak. Then the OPECers started squabbling. The Ruskies played hardball. Oil plunged and could retest the lows of 2015, when it was $27 (now about $32). Nobody saw this coming. In its desire to crash US crude production, mother Russia is also whacking Alberta. Since oil makes up a third of our exports, it’s a big deal. The TSX showed that today.

Okay, stocks and bonds.

The virus uncertainty shaved more than 10% off markets which last year soared up to 30%. After all, it’s a risk. Despite the numbers above, it could go squirrely. Then the oil shock hit. The margin calls went out. The algos sold off. It was full-bore, risk-off with volatility spiking, market circuit breakers tripped and the dudes on BNN having cows.

Meanwhile central bankers have started throwing money around. Crushing interest rates was the first step – both the Fed and the BoC did that last week – and there are several more cuts to come. After that there will be direct CB buying up of assets, from bonds to the equity of major corporations. If that fails, everyone will get a pony.

Dropping rates, rising concern about recession and a torrent of money flowing from stocks into bonds have sent yields skidding lower. A five-year Canada bond paying 1.7% three months ago fell to just 0.3% on Monday before recovering a little. Mr. Market thinks US bonds will hit zero. The corollary is that bond prices have jumped – so people with balanced portfolios have seen some protection from the stock plop. As planned.

Next up? Governments. The coming T2 budget (next month) will increase federal spending, send more bucks to the provinces and may contain widespread fiscal stimulus in the form of a tax cut. It will also open the deficit floodgates. That $28 billion-a-year shortfall could double before long.

In Washington, next moves are uncertain. But it’s an election year. The orange guy has so far taken the market’s performance as a proxy for his presidency, and it’s unlikely the pump won’t be primed by a massive aid package, personal tax cuts and maybe even tariff cuts to get China back online faster. It will be breathtaking how quickly the anti-global agenda is trashed. Because it’s bunk.

Okay, so what to expect?

The mess ain’t over. The odds of a recession in Canada are much higher. The oil patch is in a lot of trouble. The good news is the cost of loans, mortgages, gas and heating fuels is going down soon, and by a lot. The bad news is imported goods will get more expensive as the dollar falls, government finances will implode and your job may be tenuous.

What to do?

Lather your hands a lot. Turn off BNN. Go play with your toilet paper mountain.

Beyond that, don’t sell into the storm. Going to cash may save you from another leg down, but it’ll also cause you to miss the leg up. There are people who ‘went safe’ in 2008 and never did find the courage to get back in – giving up an historic chance to build wealth. It’s human nature to exaggerate fear. Try to resist.

Buy cheap assets now on sale? Sure. History says that works. But it takes blind courage. For example, the world still runs on oil and prices won’t stay at these levels. The bold will reap.

Mostly, chill. Spend time with your dog. Ask her tonight about the Dow futures.

Exactly.

237 comments ↓

#1 BUY BUY BUY on 03.09.20 at 3:24 pm

Why would anyone sell…. crazy crazy… this is a golden throne opportunity. Trim your bonds…start buying……

I love you Putin…….

You really are funny! ” Go play with your toilet paper mountain.”

#2 Attrition on 03.09.20 at 3:27 pm

Iz i foist?

#3 Apocalypse2020 on 03.09.20 at 3:28 pm

Things are actually much better than they appear today.

#4 Cowtown Cowboy on 03.09.20 at 3:29 pm

Interesting days indeed….I remember the crash of ’87, I was 2nd yr of my Econ degree, and one of my prof’s was going crazy…luckily the price of a jug of draught didn’t change much, that was about all I was concerned about…..Now, I’m kinda wishing I got out of some of my S&P etf’s…c’est la vie, I’m just thankful that we have such strong leadership in Canada to help us weather this storm….oh wait….

#5 BlogDog123 on 03.09.20 at 3:30 pm

always reminded of this Simpsons “is it time to panic”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KojYatpLPSE

#6 IHCTD9 on 03.09.20 at 3:30 pm

Tonight I will be planning my driveway re-do over a few glasses of Rum and Orange Juice.

Got to get on in with the time change and spring temps the last few days.

Need to get the winter rust off the track pads and shine them up again.

#7 Jimmy Zhao on 03.09.20 at 3:34 pm

So, why didn’t your fancy pants technical chartists see this coming. Aren’t they keeping track of the ‘head and shoulders teacup with handle’ indicators ?

#8 Jim on 03.09.20 at 3:44 pm

India and China have to increase their birth rates and population to create more demand for oil.

I’m losing money in oil and gas stocks! India and China please produce more babies, use more oil and become energy consumers RIGHT NOW! Buy an SUV, leave on all of your lights and use oil as a substitute for green energy.

#9 FreeBird on 03.09.20 at 3:45 pm

It’s tea time in England. Take a break. Have a cup (or a pint). Keep calm and carry on.

#10 BobC on 03.09.20 at 3:45 pm

I often think about your words when you said you don’t appraise your house every month do you?
I’m not selling my paid for home and I’m not selling my investments so why worry?
Years ago I would have bailed out and taken a loss.
Thank you Mr. Turner

#11 Jakethesnake on 03.09.20 at 3:52 pm

Garth, once upon a time 5 years ago you chastised me for being a doomer living in my mom’s basement. Look who’s laughing now! I’m still safe in her basement while all you guys above grade are covered in light sweet crude which burns the eyes. Suckers! You’ll never learn.

#12 broader mind on 03.09.20 at 3:53 pm

Ok, so this virus may cull the aging population. Numbers I read state approx. 800 out of a thousand deaths occur in those above the age 60. Why are markets tanking. This is a gift to governments like ours , CPP and OAS shortfall potentially erased….ease pressure on med-care… . Wealth transfers from savers to spendies (wrinklies to mills) Houses occupied by wrinklies now available. I can’t see how this is so bad for markets , governments , and economies. When this shifts the equity gains will be massive.

#13 sickdog on 03.09.20 at 3:54 pm

Garth I think you are minimizing the risk of this virus. There’s a reason public health authorities are reacting the way they are. We don’t have the hospital capactity to deal with this epidemic. That has effects on everyone. Especially people your age. It’s quite likely you and your loved ones will not “be fine.” Good luck to you.

#14 Piano_Man87 on 03.09.20 at 3:56 pm

Who would win?

A sneezing bat
OR:
the stock market

#15 Kilt on 03.09.20 at 3:56 pm

Canadian banks are looking very inexpensive.

Kilt.

#16 yvr_lurker on 03.09.20 at 3:56 pm

Yes, I do agree with Garth that one needs to stay in at the moment and ride it out. However, with one more day at 9% loses, the TSX will be down to 13800 which is essentially the low point in Dec. 2018, with the collapse occuring in roughly 3 weeks. Super volatile. Just like there was a graph on the weekend indicating what would happen to a portfolio that missed the 10 best days of the last decade, it would be informative to also show a graph of what would happen to a portfolio if it missed the 10 worst days of the last decade. With this volatility it is highly problematic for those who need to drain assets now for some major purchase (cashing in part of RESPs for college, house downpayment, etc…).

#17 earthboundmisfit on 03.09.20 at 3:58 pm

Meh …. ’tis but a flesh wound.

#18 Figmund Sreud on 03.09.20 at 4:00 pm

Now, oil.
__________________

Yes. Oil. Bit of reality in this. Bit of it first, snip:

“This industry shot itself in the foot with dramatic shale production growth,” said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer of Houston-based asset manager Pickering Energy Partners. Drillers need “a dose of self help,” he said. “It’s kind of them against the world right now.”

American shale companies are largely responsible for years of swelling world supply. Indirectly, they’ve been supported by OPEC nations and their allies cutting production to prop up prices. But the key Saudi-Russia “bromance,” as it was once described by Citigroup Inc. oil analyst Ed Morse, is over. No longer is Russia willing to bail out U.S. shale.”

Shale Drillers Are Staring Down Barrel at Worst Oil Bust Yet

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/shale-drillers-are-staring-down-the-barrel-of-worst-oil-bust-yet

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#19 Paddy on 03.09.20 at 4:02 pm

Re: Apocalypse2020 on 03.09.20 at 3:28 pm

Things are actually much better than they appear today.

””””””””””””””’
Holy crap Apoc, are you turning a new leaf?! Where did all this optimism come from???

#20 Bob Dog on 03.09.20 at 4:03 pm

if the Dow Joans ever falls more than 1000 “points” in a Single Day the sitting president should be “loaded” into a very big cannon and Shot into the sun at TREMENDOUS SPEED! No excuses!

Donald J. Trump
@readDonaldTrump
25 Feb 2015

#21 wallflower on 03.09.20 at 4:03 pm

Irresponsible reporting is sending the already abysmal mainstream media into the pit.
One old guy with underlying conditions dead from C19 in an l-t care facility. Okay. Let’s report the numbers of all dead from regular flu this week, etc.
Whither context? Right, that probably disappeared in provincial education curricula some time ago.
Now, how are these toilet paper manics going to hoard their gasoline? That will be interesting …

#22 Yuus bin Haad on 03.09.20 at 4:06 pm

Hey Garth, how do you know the BNN dudes are “having cows”?

#23 Steph on 03.09.20 at 4:06 pm

Seeking advice from you experts. For a lot of reasons we haven’t contributed to our TFSAs. This spring we were planning to contribute a good chunk as we are for the first time flush with required cash. Hey raising a family is costly and those obligations are DONE!

The question is…how will I know when it is the right time – what are the signals the market is recovering and on its way up?

#24 leebow on 03.09.20 at 4:08 pm

It’s all yesterday’s news. Now the helicopter money.

#25 Stan Brooks on 03.09.20 at 4:09 pm

Interesting day on the market.

Loonie dropping like a stone. I have an idea: Why don’t we cut rates further? And of course there will be no inflation (with the sucker dropping 3.3 % against the euro, 1.8 % against the usd in a single day)

Can the market go further down 30-40 % from here?
It certainly seems so. I am not catching a falling knife. It is very hard to see upside at this point considering that this decline follows a panic 0.5 % rate cut.

0.5 % on 10 years treasuries folks. bellow 1 % on 30 years treasuries. But hey, the economy is great.

I want so see how big balls do the ‘investors’ have.
I also have a feeling that this is not a full blown panic yet, that is to come, loading on popcorn.

Cheers with a glass of a quality scotch.

#26 Steven Rowlandson on 03.09.20 at 4:10 pm

What the heck is this toilet paper hoarding madness?
Are they trying to corner the bum wad market or are they just going cuckoo?

#27 T-Rev on 03.09.20 at 4:11 pm

Bonds trimmed, equities bought! Might do it again if it keeps going.

#28 Attrition on 03.09.20 at 4:11 pm

It’s pretty much time for me to buy back in after taking some profits 3 weeks ago. I’ll check the pre-market tonight and if indicators look positive, I’ll get clicking the mouse early tomorrow.

I’m trying to pick 3-5 ETFs that present the best basket of opportunities. I’m thinking banks, REITs, and energy sectors for starters, but what do I know?

Any thoughts from steerage? What would a good “buy the once in a generation dip” portfolio look like right now?

#29 Lost...but not leased on 03.09.20 at 4:11 pm

CRUISE Update:

We are DONE(sell or at least “short” your cruise line stocks ?!? )

As mentioned earlier…we were planning a Carribbean cruise…mid March 2020.

Being Canadians on a cruise..we required private health coverage.

Just found out our private insurer(Major company) has CANCELLED all cruise ship coverage due to the coronavirus.

I thought the cruise line may cancel….but this is being compromised at the periphery. No way we will take a chance…especially with a 85 year old.

The End ….

#30 Blog Bunny on 03.09.20 at 4:13 pm

”Go play with your toilet paper mountain.”

That line was pure gold. I have bunnies to play with. Have been buying some stocks today and will buy more tomorrow. Who does not like a sale ?

#31 Prairieboy43 on 03.09.20 at 4:19 pm

Joe Biden endorses Donald Trump. Only in America. Lol..

https://youtu.be/PP6ZLlODW24

PB43

#32 Sold Out on 03.09.20 at 4:19 pm

#7 Jimmy Zhao on 03.09.20 at 3:34 pm
So, why didn’t your fancy pants technical chartists see this coming. Aren’t they keeping track of the ‘head and shoulders teacup with handle’ indicators ?

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To what end? How many experts have to tell you that the correct response to a day like today is to take the dog for a walk, and treat yourself to an icecream cone? Relish your complete lack of control over current events; nobody can pin this on you.

#33 CJohnC on 03.09.20 at 4:20 pm

An interesting point of view:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3073981/coronavirus-bringing-painful-much-needed-end-era-economic-excess

#34 The Wet One on 03.09.20 at 4:22 pm

Time to start looking for deals. They’re there. Get some cash together and find something to buy.

This is market timing, true, but it’s best to buy when everyone else is bailing out.

Don’t be stupid and buy weed stocks either. Buy great companies (Canadian banks just took a pounding and more is to come, but they will still make money hand over fist and pay great dividends. They weathered world wars and the flu pandemic of 1918. They’ll weather this just fine). Other great co’s are out there. Buy them too.

And here I thought I wouldn’t see another 2008 again. Foolish me.

Ahhh…

I can sense the wealth growing already.

Excellent!!!!

#35 Kreditanstalt on 03.09.20 at 4:22 pm

Haha. Manipulated “interest rates” can never be allowed to rise ever again…it would wipe out a LOT of the illusory wealth in stocks. But it sure makes one wonder about what “wealth” and “money” now are. Considering “debt” as yield, an asset, will be in even more doubt.

The virus and the damage it will do is only a catalyst for a stock and bond bubble created by decades if monetary expansion. So get used to crack-ups, volatility, andintraday swings…and later will come bankruptcies and long overdue closures and layoffs.

My gold is doing nicely.

#36 Rubber Johnny on 03.09.20 at 4:24 pm

What Saudi did today was crude.

#37 Stone on 03.09.20 at 4:25 pm

The virus uncertainty shaved more than 10% off markets which last year soared up to 30%. After all, it’s a risk. Despite the numbers above, it could go squirrely. Then the oil shock hit. The margin calls went out. The algos sold off. It was full-bore, risk-off with volatility spiking, market circuit breakers tripped and the dudes on BNN having cows.

———

Garth, the only way you know that the dudes on BNN were having cows was that you have BNN on all day long. It’s ok. You can admit that it’s a guilty pleasure of yours. I won’t tell anyone. ;P

PS: I like watching Pattie Lovette Reid. Every time she says “The day of reckoning is coming” in regards to Canadians debt levels, I have a good chuckle. I think the two of you should do a collab.

#38 Karlhungus on 03.09.20 at 4:26 pm

Does anyone have a top list of drops for the TSX? I can’t see to find one

#39 mrnick on 03.09.20 at 4:27 pm

It’s times like these when the financial advisors earn their keep. Great advice from Garth.

But a bigger philosophical question here.
If the world isn’t ending, and I believe most people would agree with that, then there will be an economy still around.
People will still need to pay for food, gas, utilities, mortgages, rent, taxes etc.
If someone takes out money from their balanced or even all stock portfolio, where’s the money going to go?
In banks? Earning a pittance?
Or if the rates do go negative, then keeping money there will make no sense either.

Well, if you trust the banks, why not the bank stocks? They are on sale right now.
May be the sales will get better and better.

Hold tight and worry about the virus rather than the portfolio.

#40 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 4:30 pm

“The orange guy has so far taken the market’s performance as a proxy for his presidency, and it’s unlikely the pump won’t be primed by a massive aid package, personal tax cuts and maybe even tariff cuts to get China back online faster.”

How’s that going to work? Massive aid package? For who, air- and cruise line shareholders? The three states most affected so far are Massachusetts, California and Washington. All are unwinnable for Trump, and he just called the governor of the latter a snake. Spoiler: They won’t get much aid. How do you aid frackers, who were already going broke last month, and are now just going broke faster?

Priming the pump is great when you’ve got a domestic demand problem. But if your supply chains are all FUBAR and foreign customers aren’t buying what you’re selling, it just creates inflation.

Donny spent the weekend in Florida golfing with basketball players, and tonight he’s at a fundraiser. He’s met with airline CEOs, and sent Pence to meet with cruise operators. Treating the symptoms, not the disease. Spoiler: He blames the stock market on Democrats, foreigners, and the Fed.

Doing my bit: BOT $250k in the last hour today. What deals there are for the dividend lover!

#41 LadyInWaiting on 03.09.20 at 4:39 pm

Just sharing some public health intel with respect to COVID-19. Canada is already moving from virus containment (isolate cases, quarantine contacts, etc.) to mitigation (social distancing measures, and TP too for some strange reason). This change in public health response will reduce the chance that individuals become infected, but more importantly this will slow the pace of viral spread, so that the health care system can handle the accumulation of serious cases (check out https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909 for a clear explanation; and #flattenthecurve). I agree, a lot of people will likely get infected, and most will be just fine. However, our already strained health care system has to be able to handle any surge in severe cases, while still providing care to people with existing chronic and acute illnesses. Public health wants to prevent people from getting infected too fast and overwhelming our health care system and health care providers. Don’t panic, just help slow the accumulation of cases, so people can get the care they need. Thanks Canada!

#42 Yukon Elvis on 03.09.20 at 4:42 pm

Panic mode here. Bought last Monday. Couldn’t decide whether to buy again today or wait till tomorrow. Gonna wait till tomorrow morning. CM common stock paying 5.76%. Gonna get up early for the opening bell. Yippee ki yay to the faint of heart.

#43 Last Chance on 03.09.20 at 4:45 pm

The last crash (2008), I panicked and went to metal/bonds. And I missed the biggest bull market of my lifetime.

I am now plowing everything I can spare into these wonderful assets that are on sale, including ETFS of the biggest and best American companies. Nothing is for sure, but I know that sitting out after getting stung the last time set me back a ways as I was a devout metalhead investing in Canadian Oil, confident that it had to go up. I believe in many things, including that I was wrong. Now I believe I’ll take advantage of these assets that are on sale.

Thank you Mr. Turner for showing us the way.

Last Chance (Reformed Metalhead)

Victoria BC

#44 MaryEn on 03.09.20 at 4:47 pm

I still have about 10% of bonds. Plan to sell again tomorrow another portion of it and buy equities.
As a long term investor, I see all this mess more like a buying opportunity.

Btw. good time to fill up TFSA with the money from Margin account (if you haven’t already do that but instead have waited from CRA check like me)

#45 Deplorable Dude on 03.09.20 at 4:55 pm

Haven’t looked at my portfolio in 3 weeks….

All I know is that my dividend income keeps rolling in and has not changed one iota.

Hopefully that doesn’t change. If it does that means this panic is worse than the 2008 crash.

Oh by the way…guess what date it is on Friday…..

#46 Deplorable Dude on 03.09.20 at 4:57 pm

#19 Bob Dog.

Fake tweet….never happened.

#47 Rico on 03.09.20 at 5:02 pm

Like others, I bought at the closing bell.
ZEO and ZUT to start.

#48 JSS on 03.09.20 at 5:03 pm

Suncor: $27.56; 6.7% dividend
Enbridge $42.70; 7.6% dividend
Canadian Natural Resources: $21.43; 7.9% dividend

Wow.

#49 Rubber Johnny on 03.09.20 at 5:04 pm

Saudi says it will penalize travelers who do not disclose their health status and travel history upon entry $133,000.

Fine.

#50 The Bright Side on 03.09.20 at 5:05 pm

At least we do not need to worry about paying more capital gains taxes after the 2020 budget.

#51 Dolce Vita on 03.09.20 at 5:06 pm

BoC lower rate preemptive, providing cheap, short-term cash to people laid off or businesses floundering due to COVID.

They did the right thing.
——————————————–
HEADS UP for my fellow Cdns (more facts than you get from the Cdn MSM which I read and watch daily).

COVID stats out today here in Italia:

97% of the deaths >= 60 years of age (Il Manifesto, ya I know there an Italian Commie daily, expand your horizons).

And from Il Giornale (Righty’s):

Mortality rates rise to (estimated average is at 2-3%):

6% among hypertensives
7.3% among diabetics
10.5 % among cardiopaths and
14.8% among those over eighty.
Among those suffering from lung complications, from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to emphysema, it reaches 6.3%.

“Older adults are less likely to present with a fever, therefore a careful evaluation of other symptoms such as coughing or shortness of breath is justified ”

Common affliction is Acute Respiratory Syndrome (ARS) – why some talk about more ventilators in hospitals, now you know why. A toughy to cure for people per the above elevated mortality rates.
——————————————–
From my own tracking of the cases here in Italia:

Infection rate increases still high over the past 3 days varying from:

24.4% (yesterday) to
26.9%, 3 days ago.

From the chart link below (mine) you can see COVID starts low and slow and then picks up steam later on with a vengeance (so if you think Cdn rates slow now, well hang on to your hats Canada):

https://i.imgur.com/C8SqvZO.png

Some debates but there are 2 strains out there:

S which China had.
L which Italia has.

S supposedly more “benign” than L. L has a higher infection and death rate than S, also it mutates faster. Lucky Italia.

Why it is not a good idea to take #Deaths and divide by total cases, 2 strains, 2 different mortality rates.
——————————————–
I know, not think, the only solution is QUARANTINE. The 2 areas where it started in Italia (Codogno and Vo’) COVID has petered out there since about Feb. 21 (why quarantines are 2 weeks long).

Hope it does not happen to you Canada but the odds are it will. It seems an insidious virus. Tests, sanitizers, ass wipe, will not help.

Hospitals will be overwhelmed, that’s why expect quarantines like we have in Italia.

And expect town or city quarantines if it gets very bad and IT WILL affect the economy sad to say especially with what Garth has said has already happened without COVID.
——————————————–

And as an Italian, I want to know what’s up with the toilet paper thing Canada?

As before, my local supermarket toilet paper aisle yesterday, well stocked:

https://i.imgur.com/LYv8Xsq.jpg

Like CANADA, are you expecting that if COVID squeezes the Charmin it’s going to get a big hurt, real bad?

Honest to God Canada, I leave for about 5 years and the whole country goes to dung.
——————————————–

Ciao d’Italia.

#52 Lahdeedah on 03.09.20 at 5:07 pm

Howdy ya’ll.

The big one finally arrived! Lol. 2008 called, it wants it’s stock plunge back. What a strange cluster of events – Corona plus Saudi/Russia oil wars.

Personally, I’m taking the solid advice of “don’t sell into a storm”.

Hope everyone’s sitting on cash to take advantage of the upswing when it comes, cause it will be pretty sweet. I was there for the 2008 return and it was beautiful.

#53 Leo on 03.09.20 at 5:07 pm

All those oil companies that left Canada to head south…. out of the pan, into the fire.
Ain’t life a bitchumen. :P

#54 S.Bby on 03.09.20 at 5:13 pm

I love the smell of napalm in the morning… so I went in big time half hour before close today. I do like bargains so I hope it works out.

#55 Italia goes Full Lockdown on 03.09.20 at 5:14 pm

It’s coming to us all…..bumwad hoarders is the new gold.!

#56 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.09.20 at 5:22 pm

Just what I told you a couple of weeks back. The whole Coronavirus thing is just a ploy to get the markets to do just what they’re doing now. The powers-that-be have just bought themselves another decade of life for the FIAT currency system. And by the way, the Saudi thing concerning oil; don’t think for a minute that Saudi isn’t controlled by the same people who control the rest of the Western World. It’s all part of the overall plan and it’s working just as they wanted it to.

#57 Stone on 03.09.20 at 5:22 pm

#7 Jimmy Zhao on 03.09.20 at 3:34 pm
So, why didn’t your fancy pants technical chartists see this coming. Aren’t they keeping track of the ‘head and shoulders teacup with handle’ indicators ?

———

I’m waiting for a retort from the fancy pants technical chartists. Any comment?

#58 Drinking on 03.09.20 at 5:23 pm

I got a good deal today on Maguires Car polish and a six pack; gave up on T.P. and cauliflower; enjoying the sun, relaxing, polishing the car, life is good!

#59 Treasure Island CEO - 133,432,423.88 Offshore on 03.09.20 at 5:23 pm

Putin is a sniper. Hits the US right when they are rolling over. This is economic warfare. WWIII is underway.

Now what about those people parking cash since last year in anticipation for a buying opportunity?

I will take those barrels of oil for $3 per barrel. There is no floor in oil.

This isn’t a time to sit back. This is like a black friday sale all year long (or at least the next several months) for shoppers with money in their pockets.

Whoa! Whoa! keep your eye on the prize though…trickle the money in riding this market all the way down, then put feet up to watch those seeds grow. A little bit at 20% down, a bit more at 30% down, a lot at 40% down as much at possible 50%+ down.

Also, oil at $3 dollars per barrel might be a good pick. World still needs oil. There is no floor in oil. Could get there.

#60 Quebec Is Great on 03.09.20 at 5:28 pm

In my opinion look the market is still to optimistic about oil and the virus. Feels like a bounce might be coming soon but to me its an opportunity to pick up a couple puts.

Based on what Russia and the Saudis are saying, I strongly suspect they will pump like mad – the mid to long term result being $10 to $25 oil. Market seems oil driven and this IMO will have to change. Convenient that the Saudis launched Aramco shares just soon enough to mitigate their oil losses for the short term at least. Long term I think all the oil producing nations are really going to have to find something else to keep their economy going.

#61 Dolce Vita on 03.09.20 at 5:29 pm

Last post and I forgot.

2 economic think tanks in Italia looked how many companies would fail as a result of COVID on the economy:

https://i.imgur.com/p84Tjg8.jpg

Remember, this is Italy we are talking about here and not more robust Canada:

7%
low risk

15%
COVID outbreak affects economy until end of July

33%
COVID outbreak affects economy until end of year

The above before they quarantined most of the North, the economic engine of Italia (2nd largest industrial complex in all of Europe, 2nd only to the Germans).

How you factor that for Canada I do not know but one thing is for sure, companies will fail due to lower economic activity thanks to COVID.

Why BoC’s preemptive lower rate not a bad idea to keep firms afloat during COVID (and the people that will get laid off at these firms).

#62 Quebec Is Great on 03.09.20 at 5:31 pm

also, since there was mention of USD/CAD I actually caught a tweet from Peter Brandt today that mentions via his TA, the charts are telling him that USD/CAD is going to 1.55

#63 Capt. Serious on 03.09.20 at 5:34 pm

The real head scratcher is what to do with your bond portfolio now? Starting yield is an excellent indicator of 10 year return, and now yields are well under inflation, and risk on if a whiff of higher inflation emerges. If you don’t think a depression is coming, there is no logic in holding bonds from here. Ok, so cash then. Regardless if you use cash or a bond fund/ETF for your ‘safe’ money from here, your savings rate is going to need to go up. In real terms looking like something like -1 % for your safe assets. Crazy times, crazy times.
Also, good luck pension funds.

#64 shinzai on 03.09.20 at 5:36 pm

The virus is just the pin prick, not the cause

This is not a buy the dip market.

#65 blokexistentialist on 03.09.20 at 5:38 pm

https://www.facebook.com/RealPoliticalCowboy/videos/504184570459031/

#66 Alessio on 03.09.20 at 5:46 pm

Why would anyone stay invested? The markets will mean revert to 2011 when the fake money printing started. This isn’t your dads market. I’ve lost $20,000 in 65/35 ETFs. More loss today. This ain’t over. Garth will delete this post though for what reason I don’t know. Maybe alternate inputs aren’t invited.

#67 Ben on 03.09.20 at 5:50 pm

I always enjoy your commentary during times like this Garth. My only regret right now is that I don’t have a lot of extra cash kicking around right now with my wife on mat leave, I’d like to put some extra into my portfolio.

I do disagree with your prediction that tariffs on China will be cut. Trump is the kind of guy to blame someone else when things go wrong and then try and punish them, logic be damned. China is the perfect place for Trump to place the blame; I think the Tariffs aren’t going anywhere.

#68 CEW0 on 03.09.20 at 5:51 pm

#22 Steph on 03.09.20 at 4:06 pm

Seeking advice from you experts. For a lot of reasons we haven’t contributed to our TFSAs. This spring we were planning to contribute a good chunk as we are for the first time flush with required cash. Hey raising a family is costly and those obligations are DONE!

The question is…how will I know when it is the right time – what are the signals the market is recovering and on its way up?

__________________________________________

Do you have the money right now? Right now is a good time. As long as:
-you don’t need to take out the money for a long time (like 10 years+)
-you have the fortitude to buy in, and not check your ‘investments’ again for at least 6 months. A year or two would be better. Though you may see another sudden drop in the coming weeks, over the long run you will be glad you bought now.

The market might drop again, but if you wait you might end up buying on the rebound and prices may actually be higher.

If you can contribute regularly in the future, that is a bonus. Investing a percentage of every paycheck is kind of a forced dollar cost averaging. Invest when you have the money. That sounds like now.

#69 the Jaguar on 03.09.20 at 5:52 pm

@ #50 Dolce Vita on 03.09.20 at 5:06 pm

Yeahhhhhh! He’s back! Our favourite paisan!
We missed you, big guy!

#70 Interstellar Old Yeller on 03.09.20 at 5:54 pm

#35 Rubber Johnny on 03.09.20 at 4:24 pm
What Saudi did today was crude.

That was so bad it was good.

That ending picture was great, Garth. (For $3999 I hope that roll is 3-ply!)

I’ve already thrown my 5% cash allocation in. If that next leg down can wait a few days, it’s payday Friday.

#71 JSS on 03.09.20 at 5:54 pm

This year is a “once-in-a-decade” opportunity to buy solid blue chip dividend growth stocks of Canadian corporations: Banking, insurance, telco, utilities, pipelines, oil-integrated, or ETF-equivalent of the above.

#72 not 1st on 03.09.20 at 5:56 pm

Trump has been in contact with two infected people and he is fine. The guy is a stallion. Corona is no match for MAGA.

#73 NO BETTER TIME on 03.09.20 at 5:56 pm

Never let a crises go to waste. Remember the quick passage of the Patriot Act after 9-11. There will be a move by governments, long desired, to eliminate paper currency and blame it on the spread of the coronavirus. No better time to do it.

#74 Rexx Rock on 03.09.20 at 5:57 pm

When do you think we’ll get that pony ? Next month or by the Summer time? Good times day trading ! XEC long a.m. and short OXY a later. Wow,I love this volalitility.I wish it could last for awhile.Still buy a little gold because the CB have lost all credibility.

#75 Sask to AB on 03.09.20 at 5:59 pm

re: #50 Dolce Vita on 03.09.20 at 5:06 pm

Thank you for the update.
Much appreciated.

F56AB

#76 Gary on 03.09.20 at 5:59 pm

I will be buying some oil stocks but they will be American with a dividend yield, refiners should do well with cheap feedstock, Canadian Peso will tank more
Looks like Trudeau got his wish, no more investment in Canada, I wonder where he will get revenue to fund social programs?
Putin: A Little payback for sanctions on Nordstream, West Texas Shale & Alberta Crude, bankers will not provide any more capital.

#77 Bill Grable on 03.09.20 at 6:01 pm

I lived in Mexico – and if you didn’t follow careful handwashing and general hygiene, you got sick…so this Covid 19 – is not what scares me.

It is CHINA/TRADE and the fact that medicine that keeps me alive has much of the product made in, CHINA or India. What next?

*As I write ITALY – the entire Country is locked down* So the World Economy is going nuts, my friends are panicking.

Thank you for you cool, calm and well written words, Mr. Turner.

I send a lot of people here, to get a dose of SANITY.

#78 jess on 03.09.20 at 6:06 pm

warning

Lombardy’s health care system was “one step from collapse” despite efforts to free up hospital beds.
“We are now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors,” Antonio Pesenti said. “We’ve emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people.”
He described seeing “a tsunami of patients,” adding that there could be 18,000 patients in hospital by the end of the month if the virus continues to spread.

#79 Toronto_CA on 03.09.20 at 6:07 pm

Well..I believe in Garth and common sense, so I put my money where my mouth is and bought some Shell today. It is paying a nice dividend even if I don’t get a gain in the near future; I believe oil will come back over the long run.

I never buy individual stocks but when a major dividend paying blue chip drops 18% in one day when it was already low, I take a chance. Time will tell.

#80 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 6:08 pm

“CM common stock paying 5.76%.”

I saw a similar comment from another poster. The pro tip of the day is: Some websites calculate the yield once a day overnight, so you see the yield given the price at yesterday’s close. CM’s yield at today’s close was 6.8%

!

#81 Dolce Vita on 03.09.20 at 6:09 pm

Garth, a clarification about Italia in lockdown.

Only posting so that if it happens to Canada you know what to expect, better yet, what they should do AND HOW THIS WILL CRATER AND ECONOMY.

Here is the Red Zone map (Zone Rosse), the quarantined area = almost all of N. Italia and what constitutes the “lockdown”:

https://i.imgur.com/VRgJH9V.jpg

-3 months jail, €206 fine for violating quarantine decrees, which follow.
-Schools closed until Mar. 15
-Pub, discos, bingo closed (poor Catholics on the latter)
-Bars, restaurants, gyms, swimming pools open but with 1 meter distance between patrons.
-No waiting or lingering in Emergency room areas.
-No mobility if you are under quarantine with COVID, stay home in other words.
-No city, civil or religious celebrations, no funeral services.
-No entry into, or exit from the Region of Lombardy and the other 14 provinces in the Red Zone until April 3rd.
-Bars and restaurants open from 600 to 1800 hours only, again the 1 meter rule.
-Commercial centres (e.g., malls, supermarkets) closed on the weekend.
-Museums, movie theatres a ski hills/centres closed.

Not listed in the graphic is that non-essential services companies either have employees work from home and if that in infeasible, then to give leave or vacation time (in other words they cannot gather in numbers at a work place). THIS IS WHAT WILL HURT THE ECONOMY A LOT.

Also not listed is that payments to the Taxman forgone until the end of the quarantine, April, as are bankruptcy proceedings, and the like suspended (basically anything monetary or drastic by Gov Italia).

————————————————-

The rest of Italia has the school and public gathering places ban on it only.

What the Italian quarantine is all about, the areas affected and why it will cripple the economy.

If it gets bad Canada, you will have to answer the question:

People over money?

Gov Italia selected the people. Canada should too as well if it gets bad and I expect it will if that nasty L strain COVID hits Canada, pray for a miracle instead (agnostics, pray to the Big Electron).

————————————————-

Sorry for the long winded HEADS UP CANADA about lock down and how to wreck and economy.

————————————————-

My take on BoC rate: it will stay low until this COVID thing blows over. If the economy is hurt by COVID it will stay low until recovery. Plan accordingly.

#82 HH on 03.09.20 at 6:12 pm

@ #15 lurker. “… highly problematic for those who need to drain assets for a major purchase… ”

I always thought it’s an iron-clad rule of investing in the markets to only invest money you don’t need in next 5-10 years.

Any dough you may need for some plans within next 5 years should not be invested. Lost opportunity? Maybe. But then that allows you to ride out all crises with equanimity.

You can use an ancient farming analogy: you put all your seeds in the ground, except: A) enough left to plant next year, B) enough left to make flour and bread to avoid starvation and survive until next year.

#83 not 1st on 03.09.20 at 6:14 pm

Time again for Garth to post that 1987 pic with his Commodore 64.

Enbridge has nothing to do with the price of oil. They transport whatever companies give them and they get a toll for that service. Major operations in both Canada and US. Down 25% today. Dividend approaching 8%. Very tempting.

#84 akashic record on 03.09.20 at 6:14 pm

Anyone considers HELOC to buy cheap assets? Looks really appealing.

#85 the Jaguar on 03.09.20 at 6:17 pm

Excerpt from L.A. Times…..
“At 10:16 a.m. on a wet and dreary morning, Russia’s energy minister walked into OPEC’s headquarters in central Vienna knowing his boss was ready to turn the global oil market upside down.

Alexander Novak told his Saudi Arabian counterpart Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman that Russia was unwilling to cut oil production further. The Kremlin had decided that propping up prices as the coronavirus ravaged energy demand would be a gift to the U.S. shale industry. The frackers had added millions of barrels of oil to the global market while Russian companies kept wells idle. Now it was time to squeeze the Americans.”

Given the very poor treatment of Russia by the USA these past number of years why shouldn’t they protect their own economy? Seriously.

#86 Drinking on 03.09.20 at 6:18 pm

#60 Dolce Vita

Nice to have you back, stay safe, enjoy the great culture and foods; I have many relatives in France that are doing the same. The virus is something to take serious due to the fact that we are really not being told the truth about it; but at the same time one needs to live and enjoy life! All the best!

#87 Joe on 03.09.20 at 6:21 pm

1) thanks China – there should be consequences
2) thanks Opec
3) thanks Russia

This Virus has exposed the world in many ways.

Canada has to start any resource projects on the table.

#88 MF on 03.09.20 at 6:23 pm

Ah the perfect storm.

A decade of bad monetary policy, bad fiscal policy, and bad personal finances have put everyone rightfully on edge. Today everything coalesced together. COVID19 is not just another flu, and is finally being taken for the serious threat it is. This issue with Saudi Arabia and Russia is just fuel to the fire. Add in an inverted yield curve and you have some real fear.

Why?

Everyone is thinking it. The end of this debt and stimulus fueled bull. The big one is coming at some point and we all know it. It’s like how everyone fears the predicted big earth quake in California. Every little tremor will produce fear. Every hick up in the market is similarily taken more seriously.

A big part of that fear is our perceived vulnerability. Rates were stupidly left too low for too long. Governments around the world have spent way too much. And individuals have gorged on debt to buy hilariously overvalued real estate, leaving themselves tapped out.

How can we combat a major recession, or, even a minor one in this state?

And Lol @ the people touting real estate with this backdrop. They will probably rave about their home values right until the very end, like in the US 2007. Ignore.

We need to learn an important lesson from biology, an actual science with observable theories, unlike economics. All biological systems have a set point. Any time the internal or external environment deviates from that set point, there will be a major reaction to return the system to the original set point. If this doesn’t happen the organism simply dies.

Extremely low interst rates are such a deviation. They have produced a huge amount reactions and effects that differ from anything resembling normal. Condos costing 700k. Houses for 1.4 million. These are symptoms of an underying disease state that needs to be treated and soon. The market today shouldn’t be just ignored. It was also a symptom.

/philosophizing for today

MF

#89 Flop... on 03.09.20 at 6:30 pm

My wife was happy doing the RRSP thing with a professional adviser.

I hounded her to do the TFSA thing as well.

I drive the bus on that.

Luckily, I put around 15% into a gold fund, or she would probably choke me out on the living room floor tonight…

M45BC

#90 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 6:31 pm

Dolce Vita — “Hope it does not happen to you Canada but the odds are it will.”

It will. Our long land border with our biggest trading partner, their inability to test or quarantine in time, and that both of our countries send and receive many reciprocal and world travellers — guarantees it given what we know. Our only advantage is that we have institutional memory from SARS.

#91 Abby on 03.09.20 at 6:34 pm

I have to say, as a fan of your work, today’s post, my opinion only, felt a bit dismissive.

I think we all lose our humanity when you write words “Some – mostly the old, with underlying conditions – will die.” Every person matters.

Put that aside for now, If you think this would only impact these vulnerable people, you’re missing how possible health epidemics roll out.

“If we don’t collectively slow the rate of spread of this virus, suppression or flattening the curve, it endangers everyone else because of the capacity crunch. People who need surgery. People who have accidents. Cancer patients. Everyone who would normally use our healthcare system.”

Layer on this the social economic issues. What happens if a school closes even for a week and a parent can’t go to work. Forget about low income families who are told to stay home if they are sick. Maybe they can’t afford to.

Between complacency and hysteria there is planning.

I think the personal risk may be over blown but how we step us a society will be telling.

Every life matters. Check on the vulnerable in your neighbourhood, a senior, someone dealing with chemotherapy or underlying health condition. Bring them some supplies in case it is recommended that they stay out of crowds for a week or two.

Take care of each other.

#92 Jim on 03.09.20 at 6:42 pm

Canadian Crude Index 17.87 0.00 0.00%

SOMEONE! Please buy as much bitumen and create an artificial demand for oil!

India and China please increase your population tenfold. We NEED people, more people, to consume oil!
My oil stocks are COLLAPSING!!!!!!!!!!

#93 Tony on 03.09.20 at 6:47 pm

Re: #14 Kilt on 03.09.20 at 3:56 pm

Laurentian Bank is still paying 2.8 percent daily interest and the stock got pounded today. Someone knows something about Laurentian Bank. I thought the rate would drop from 3.3 percent to 1.4 percent and they’re still paying 2.8 percent. Something is seriously wrong inside that company. Possible big cover-up.

#94 WTF on 03.09.20 at 6:49 pm

Soooo. Is this a good time to rebalance the 60/40 portfolio? Asking for a friend

#95 Dolce Vita on 03.09.20 at 6:51 pm

#77 jess

All very true. The Region of Lombardia is a basket case.

Now that is what is happening in the #2 ranked healthcare system in the World per WHO.

Canada and the US in the #30’s.

If COVID hits Canada and the US with a vengeance like in Italia, I hate to say this, but they haven’t a snowball’s hope in hell of caring for all the sick.

Pray it isn’t so.

———————————————

Economically, THIS TOO SHALL PASS.

“GI JOE” one of Garth’s indentured, posted a bar chart long ago that showed markets are up 70% of the time and he is correct.

So, no panic selling.

The economy will recover as it always has and Canada’s seems to be a plucky economy that no matter what, it overcomes obstacles put in its path.

The Little Engine That Could.

I have faith in the Cdn economy, that it will survive after all is said and done.

And the BoC is issuing cheap money to make sure if you do get hurt, it will not cost you much in the interim.

WHAT a country.

#96 Yukon Elvis on 03.09.20 at 6:55 pm

#79 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 6:08 pm
“CM common stock paying 5.76%.”

I saw a similar comment from another poster. The pro tip of the day is: Some websites calculate the yield once a day overnight, so you see the yield given the price at yesterday’s close. CM’s yield at today’s close was 6.8%
……………………

Tks. For telling me that. Now I won’t sleep all night.

#97 Deplorable Dude on 03.09.20 at 6:56 pm

##77 Jess…” He described seeing “a tsunami of patients,” adding that there could be 18,000 patients in hospital by the end of the month if the virus continues to spread”

I’ve seen some pretty scary predictions this will be the US around the start of May, based on current extrapolations….all available beds taken.

The next 2 weeks will be critical.

#98 red_falcon on 03.09.20 at 7:01 pm

hmm… there’s a saying… don’t buy cheap, only to sell cheaper later…..

#99 GP on 03.09.20 at 7:02 pm

Mr. Turner:

“The cost of mortgages is going down by a lot”

I read that as “The price of homes is going up”

Also, what do you think of gold here? Thanks!

#100 Kilt on 03.09.20 at 7:07 pm

#80 Dolce Vita

A 2-3 week shutdown isn’t going to crater any economies. Vancouver has similar shutdowns when it snows. Half the country has been shutdown by a few FN protesters.

Virus was a reason for a pullback/correction. Other than that, Meh.

Oil prices are what is going to hurt Canada. Recession here we come. In the end it will mostly weed out the companies that have been on edge for years.
US Markets were in need of a correction. PE’s were way too high. This is all good. Buying opportunities on the horizon.

Kilt.

#101 Trojan House on 03.09.20 at 7:08 pm

#12 sickdog on 03.09.20 at 3:54 pm

Let’s talk about the actual epidemic in the room – the everyday, garden variety flu. In just the US alone, the everyday, garden variety flu infected just north of 31 million people from October 2019 to February 2020. Of that number, there were approximately 500,000 deaths plus or minus. The population of the US is 331,000,000. So about 10% of the population were infected.

With the coronavirus, 111,000 people have been infected so far worldwide. Their are approximately 4000 deaths. The world’s population is 7 billion. You can see where I’m going…this is not even a pandemic let alone an epidemic. However, the everyday, garden variety flu is clearly nearing epidemic proportions yet nobody runs out to buy toilet paper for it.

There is no reason to fear the coronavirus, yet so many have been brainwashed by the media and social media to fear it. Absolutely ridiculous.

#102 Phylis on 03.09.20 at 7:14 pm

#80 Dolce Vita on 03.09.20 at 6:09 pm Can you say anything related to your amazon orders?

#103 Drinking on 03.09.20 at 7:22 pm

#101 Trojan House

lol, you sound like that dude from Florida (Matt Gaetz) who sounded off just like you and came down with Sars 2.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8093227/Florida-Republican-Matt-Gaetz-goes-quarantine-flying-Air-Force-One-Donald-Trump.html

I do agree that the media is playing this virus to keep there ratings up but at the same time until we know exactly what we are dealing with; also, until we are told the truth about it; people should take precautions. Live life but be aware of whom it is affecting the most; our parents; grandparents etc!

#104 Stone on 03.09.20 at 7:24 pm

#71 not 1st on 03.09.20 at 5:56 pm
Trump has been in contact with two infected people and he is fine. The guy is a stallion. Corona is no match for MAGA.

———

Do you think this is the equivalent of Putin putting on a karate outfit and showing his virility while decking a 20ish year old patsy who wouldn’t dare lay a hand on the old geriatric for fear of being disappeared along with the rest of his family? Look at me. I’m so strong.

Now Trump wants to show the same? Considering he’s a germ-o-phobe, I call BS. It’s likely fake news.

Anyways, Kim Jung-Un already lays claim to supernatural and superhero powers. Trump’s a bit late to the party when it comes to that. Like everything else to do with him.

#105 Pension expert on 03.09.20 at 7:27 pm

Investors have to remember the Dow was at 6469 March 2009(11 years ago)The Dow is still almost 4 times that level so even if it went to 13,000(a 57% correction from present highs)people still would have doubled their money in 11 years(not including dividends)Not saying we go down to 13000 but there certainly is no rush to jump in at this point.

#106 People Panic on 03.09.20 at 7:27 pm

I went to Co-Op today to get a few things (milk mostly, and some lime & chili peanuts, yum!). The toilet paper section was indeed mostly empty, although there were a few expensive brands to be had. As I stopped to send a picture to my wife the guy in front of me said he wasn’t stock piling he was just out. His cart was full of it though. Oh well I guess if it’s time to get some toilet paper you may as well go all in. Why make 2 trips?

I still don’t understand the panic, there are ways to deal without toilet paper. It’s a pretty modern invention.

Now if the internet goes out…..

#107 D Apostrophe on 03.09.20 at 7:32 pm

no drinking games?

#108 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 7:39 pm

Prez holds a newser with Veep to tell us he’ll be announcing “very dramatic” things at ANOTHER newser tomorrow, after he attends some “very important” meetings.

At least with a nothingburger you get the bun. This was a paper plate of iceberg lettuce, with no dressing and no cutlery.

#109 conan on 03.09.20 at 7:40 pm

This is not a buy the dip market. – shinzai

It looks like Chernobyl at the moment.

#110 Larry Kerry on 03.09.20 at 7:42 pm

Dow Jones will be $15,000 by June-2020, S&P 500 will be 2,200 by June-2020, Nasdaq will be 6,000 by June-2020, TSX will be 10,000 by June-2020.

You guys will all see. People will have to work until it hurts so hard. CHIP reverse mortgage is going down too next when real estate drops far too, 25%+.

#111 Sickdog on 03.09.20 at 7:42 pm

Trojan House on 03.09.20 at 7:08 pm
Let’s talk about the actual epidemic in the room – the everyday, garden variety flu. In just the US alone, the everyday, garden variety flu infected just north of 31 million people from October 2019 to February 2020. Of that number, there were approximately 500,000 deaths plus or minus. The population of the US is 331,000,000. So about 10% of the population were infected.

With the coronavirus, 111,000 people have been infected so far worldwide. Their are approximately 4000 deaths. The world’s population is 7 billion. You can see where I’m going…this is not even a pandemic let alone an epidemic. However, the everyday, garden variety flu is clearly nearing epidemic proportions yet nobody runs out to buy toilet paper for it.

There is no reason to fear the coronavirus, yet so many have been brainwashed by the media and social media to fear it. Absolutely ridiculous.

—————

Epidemiologist’s best estimates are that 40 – 70 % of the world population is going to be infected with coronavirus. This virus has a mortality rate that is much higher than influenza. Best estimates of the number of ICU beds needed to handle this are about 3-5x the number we have in our hospitals. The strain this is going to put on our health system is enormous. This is not influenza. That is why countries are reacting this way, and markets are reacting this way. You can continue to believe what you want, but you should educate yourself before you spread disinformation.

#112 SD on 03.09.20 at 7:42 pm

https://medium.com/@davetroy/why-we-should-care-commonly-asked-questions-and-answers-about-covid-19-6b166f1876e9

#113 Drinking on 03.09.20 at 7:43 pm

#107 D Apostrophe

No idea what your age is but if you remember the bottle cap game then you are in! :)

#114 jess on 03.09.20 at 7:49 pm

With sports there are rules joutlining fair play…. why not for election campaigns/

Manipulated video escalates Biden-trump war NYT

cheap fakes-is a label enough or banned ?
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/facebook-twitter-put-warning-label-edited-video-biden-n1153506
======
Mar. 9, 2020, at 12:03 PM
A Teen ‘Influencer’ On What It Was Like To Work For The Bloomberg Campaign
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-teen-influencer-on-what-it-was-like-to-work-for-the-bloomberg-campaign/

27 people, including trainers and veterinarians, indicted in horse-racing doping scheme, prosecutors say

#115 Comrade Bernie will be pumped!! on 03.09.20 at 7:49 pm

“The world’s 500 richest people lost a combined US$203 billion through the first 96 minutes of trading in the U.S.”

I doubt they were selling. No loss. – Garth

#116 Toronto_CA on 03.09.20 at 7:55 pm

Sickdog – we don’t know the fatality rate yet, and likely won’t for some time. I just read stats out of S Korea that peg it around 0.6%; which is higher than the flu, but to really know the fatality rate you need two facts: how many died from it (that wouldn’t have died anyway) and how many have it.

We don’t know in any population at this stage how many have it, because testing the asymptomatic people or people with mild symptoms is not possible. There aren’t enough testing kits, and people will start to develop herd immunity once it spreads that we never know had it. H1N1 had 10% mortality rate at first, it was wildly wrong. There’s a very good chance the mortality rate is similar to the common flu. The people dying are by and large very old and/or very sick.

When young healthy adults start dying at 3-4% I’m all with you, but that just isn’t happening. If the mortality rate is actually much, much higher than the common flu then I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong/foolish, but right now it’s way to early to say with any confidence either way. And every day the mortality rate goes down as we find out the virus is more and more widespread but the numbers dying are not increasing nearly as rapidly.

#117 Flop... on 03.09.20 at 8:01 pm

I just remembered this place is more fun to hang around during bull markets…

M45BC

#118 Nonplused on 03.09.20 at 8:07 pm

Well, not even more pipelines could have prevented this oil crash from impacting Alberta (and thus Canada). This one is world wide. Maybe it’s a good thing we haven’t been putting much money into making holes for a while.

I’ve been following a couple of so-called experts who have been saying that the shale boom would end in tears for many years. The problem is that they’ve never made any money drilling shale. When they weren’t paying astronomical amounts for land they were paying astronomical amounts for rigs and fracking. They probably need about $80 a barrel to make it work even now that the rush is over.

And the lies they told! I worked in the industry for many years and the mantra that came out once drilling costs went through the roof was that “new technology”, “efficiencies” (what a weird word that is), and “consolidation” and other catch phases that they uses to assure share holders that profit was just around the corner. But it never came, even at $60 oil. So this is going to be an outright disaster if it goes on for any length of time.

And there was never any new technology behind shale. Deep wells, horizontal drilling, and fracking have been around a long time. What was different this time is they were desperate so they went for zones that had previously been considered uneconomic.

I don’t know if there is anybody left in Alberta to lay off, but if there is I expect the layoffs to resume and unemployment to start higher again. And the numbers of people that are under-employed or just moved up their retirement age makes a lie of the current unemployment numbers as they are. I know several people in the 55 year age range who had planned to work until at least 60 that have just thrown in the towel. I am sure there are many more. So they didn’t hit their “number” but have decided they’ll just have to make do with a more modest retirement. Those are the lucky ones. Except that their stocks all got whacked.

Sometimes I think those guys you see in the pubs with their tattoos and leather jackets with badges on them and a Harley parked out front have it right. Tomorrow is just another day as far as they are concerned, it’s nothing to plan for or worry about. “Smoke ’em if you got ’em” is their mantra.

Reminds me of an old guy I used to know back in my youth. I was doing some survey work to land the piles for a new bridge near his house, and he would come chat me up. One day he came and said “well Nonplused, I’m going back to work (he was a pipeline surveyor but he was 70). “Back to work?” I sad. “Well I’m just about out of money.” “Why did you retire if you didn’t have enough money?” “Well Nonplused”, he replied, “I’ve been married 7 times. That kind of teaches you not to bother piling up too much money.”

#119 kill me now on 03.09.20 at 8:09 pm

the people who sent all manufacturing to Mechindia to send junk back here on ships, are the same people who tell you your carbon footprint is too big, are the same people borrowing 8 billion $ to give to big pharma for an obviously fake virus

#120 Marco on 03.09.20 at 8:11 pm

Well, Russia has other means to kill you descendants of European fascists without nukes?

#121 Ronaldo on 03.09.20 at 8:15 pm

RBC down 12.2% YTD from $109.00 and and just a bit up from the low on Dec. 24/18 which was $85.99 and today $89.50.

The big difference I note is that on Dec. 24/18 when it bottomed there were only 1.76 mil shares traded whereas today 10.7 mil.

I suspect the shorts were having a great time today and expecting to see a huge bounce back up this week. It’s all very amusing indeed. Must be a lot of very panicky people out there right now. I’m not one of them. Seen this too many times before. It’s all very temporary just like viruses.

#122 1255 on 03.09.20 at 8:22 pm

Garth – You shouldn’t make light of the seriousness of the virus. If it isn’t contained millions could die.

You sound like Trump!

#123 Trojan House on 03.09.20 at 8:26 pm

#111 Sickdog on 03.09.20 at 7:42 pm

Disinformation??? Those are the actual facts. The only disinformation is your claim that 40 to 70% will be infected. Which epidemiologists? Whereas the facts I present are easily found. The other fact is that the death rate is around 3%. SARS on the other hand was almost 10% and MERS was almost 35%. The death rate for Ebola was 40%.

Yes, the flu is lower but you have to break down the numbers. The flu has a high death rate in seniors as does the coronavirus. Plus the flu also mutates so no flu shot is 100% guaranteed. So far, I have not heard of any mutation in the coronavirus (although entirely possible).

The bottom line is that the average flu still infects and kills more people than the coronavirus has so far yet people are only panicking about the coronavirus.

I would say you’re the one wearing the tin foil hat.

#124 Flop... on 03.09.20 at 8:28 pm

At least we finally found out what all the excess toilet paper is for.

Stock market is currently being bowel wiped…

M45BC

#125 DON on 03.09.20 at 8:31 pm

https://edition.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-news-today-030920/index.html

“Bank regulators are urging financial institutions to work with borrowers in communities hurt by the coronavirus pandemic.

In a joint statement released by federal and state regulators Monday evening, the group said that “financial institutions should work constructively with borrowers and other customers in affected communities.”

The regulators said “prudent efforts” to provide financial relief to stressed borrowers will not be subject to “criticism” from authorities.

In other words, regulators are giving the green light for banks to take a more lenient stance towards struggling businesses and households.

Of course, some banks will also be struggling during the coronavirus outbreak. Shares of major US banks including Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase plunged more than 10% apiece Monday.

The agencies, which include the Federal Reserve, FDIC and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, also offered to provide “appropriate regulatory assistance” to banks. That includes granting requests in scheduling bank exams or inspections “to minimize disruption and burden.”

#126 Another Deckchair on 03.09.20 at 8:33 pm

You know what’s amazing?

The talk of “Greta”, “climate” and “environment” has disappeared. Both here and in the news.

We were all going to be dead in 10 years due to climate change, now it’s COVID-19, a couple of decades ago it was “acid rain” and before that, we all were prepping for nuclear war.

Gosh, I stopped reading comments here recently because it was all interpersonal relationship issues and hammer throwing. Skimmed through here tonight and even that appears to be in submission.

And so it goes…

#127 Ronaldo on 03.09.20 at 8:34 pm

XEG down 80% from its high in March 2011. Now at 4.80. I wonder how the blog dog who was doing tummy rubs at around $12.00 a couple years back is feeling about this dog of an etf that he was scooping up at those levels.

#128 Dolce Vita on 03.09.20 at 8:35 pm

#102 Phylis

I am not in a Red Zone (Province of Pordenone) but as of March 5th, Amazon.it delivered sans problem, on time, as usual.

No warnings on Amazon.it homepage about Red Zone delivery or purchases affected.

—————————————-

#100 Kilt

The quarantine is a month long, not 2 weeks. Canada is a service based economy, 70% of GDP. Read the list in my “Lockdown” post, that is all Service based for the most part.

Also, at the current infection rates and number of cases I don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel by April 3rd, some date Gov Italia cooked up (well beyond a 2 wk quarantine).

There is talk in Italia that the COVID epidemic may extend to the end of the year…again, conjecture as I don’t think anybody really knows.

The Chinese yesterday had an uptick in cases just when they thought the infection rates were abating. I think they are being re-infected by the L strain, different from the S strain they had, again conjecture on my part but Occam’s Razor says it’s probably so.

I agree on the oil and gas industry plight in Canada. It’s ridiculous what is happening on what I believe is shoddy Climate Science and a Fed Gov that seems to be rudderless with no plan to resuscitate Canadaìs #1 export in dollar terms (AB my province of birth and I owe much of my well being to that industry).

Most of the deaths are the elderly (95% of the deaths are people over 60). They do not present FEVER. So all these IR camera thermometers and what not will NOT DETECT THEY HAVE COVID.

THE MAIN REASON I believe it is spreading like wildfire. The populace COVID targets go undetected at airports or wherever they screen for temperature. And then without knowing it until later, they have already infected others.

This epidemic will go on I believe for quite some time.

And it will set economies on the path to recession.

I’m Garth, the Cdn economy teetering bit and COVID may end up sending into recession. I hope they begin quarantining quickly before it gets out of hand like here in Italia.

Wait a few weeks and we can talk some more.

#129 Hopeful Monster on 03.09.20 at 8:47 pm

First, the bug. There have been (as I write this) 111,700 cases in the world. Of those, 63,000 people recovered. They’re fine. There are 45,000 folks who still have it, 40,000 of them with a mild dose. Just under 6,000 people (out of 7.7 billion) are serious. Some – mostly the old, with underlying conditions – will die.

Don’t be so stupid, Garth. Your statement is like saying not to worry about a few trees on fire in a dry forest. At least try and read some forecasts from EXPERTS in virology and epidemiology (which you are assuredly not) to get a sense of where this might be heading. I’d no more accept your ignorant opinion on the coronavirus than your opinion on chemotherapy. You don’t know anything about either subject. It’s not your wheelhouse and it shows. Badly.

Ah, now that you’ve had a dump on my blog, why not tell us part of the quoted text is inaccurate? – Garth

#130 not 1st on 03.09.20 at 8:49 pm

Canadas stock market lost $218B today, coronavirus continues to spready, country basically on track for a hard landing, budget numbers might as well be on toilet paper, Putin torpedoing 10% of our GDP.

And where was Justin? Well skipping QP and attending a gender equity conference. I have never knows a minority PM to play hooky from the HoC while the country burns.

#131 Biff on 03.09.20 at 8:55 pm

“….If that fails, everyone will get a pony.” LOL!! Is it any wonder we keep coming back night after night to read this blog.

#132 Barb on 03.09.20 at 8:59 pm

Great post, Doctor Garth.

Any idea what POTUS thinks of his good buddy Putin now?

#133 Nonplused on 03.09.20 at 9:10 pm

PS if you are in the market for a new car, it appears the dealers are offering incentives. I guess they always do. Not surprising given everything else going on. Up to 15% off at the Dodge dealership, but only if you sign up for an 84 month 3.99% biweekly loan. 84 months? I had to use a calculator to figure out how many years that is. 7 years? So I am still paying the damn thing off 5 years after the warranty has expired? The cash incentives were good as well but not as good. I could get 60 months at 0.99% but then the discount was less. Clearly they prefer you finance. So here is the deal on all of that: Cash is no longer king at the dealership, car, RV, or whatever. They get a kick back from the finance company if you take a loan, especially at 3.99%. So they show you a better price if you sign up for financing.

(I was in getting a recall taken care of and some regular maintenance, but since it was only going to take a couple hours of course I ended up test driving. Why not there wasn’t anyone else in the showroom. The car was sweet, I really liked it. But unfortunately I don’t really need a new car right now so it’s like pushing on a rope.)

#134 Clooswitz on 03.09.20 at 9:15 pm

Global viruses, locust in Africa, and oil economic jousting between US, Russia and US proxy Saudis. WW3 can’t be far off.

#135 Tony on 03.09.20 at 9:24 pm

All the circus tricks are on tap for tomorrow to make 100 percent certain there’s no bear market this year in an election year in America.

#136 Tony on 03.09.20 at 9:36 pm

Re: #105 Pension expert on 03.09.20 at 7:27 pm

I’m betting Trump won’t allow a bear market in an presidential election year so we’re on the cusp of the bottom for the DOW even as all the news gets worse.

#137 jestin lootz on 03.09.20 at 9:41 pm

I am waiting for a buy signal from the economic whiz kid Greta Thunderberg before I get back into the market.

#138 AK on 03.09.20 at 9:45 pm

For the price of a Starbucks coffee, you can pickup 1 share of $XEG, which pays close to 5% dividend.

#139 will on 03.09.20 at 9:46 pm

I read the other day that Russian oil companies have a low cost of production so they can still be profitable with low prices. Check out the blog of Andrei Martyanov. High quality writing.

It’s the same thing with potash. Recall a few years ago it was the Potash Corporation (or its marketer) that “set” the market price. How the hell that is capitalism and price discovery I have no idea. Some people call that a cartel. But there again it was Russian potash companies that had a lower price of production, and they said to hell with the “set” price and decided to produce all they wanted. You never got that information from the MSM and probably few analysts talked about it if they were aware of it, but if you had POT in your portfolio (I did not) you got the message.

So is it the lie of the land – petroleum and potash closer to the surface geophysics – or have the Russians figured something out about production of these commodities, and we don’t want to go there? I dono. But I don’t buy into the Putin bashing. Nope.

BTW, I got a bonus and 2% raise yesterday. I like that. If stocks are still on sale later this week I will be loading up. Got my eye on lots of companies.

#140 Wally Wanna Woppa on 03.09.20 at 9:51 pm

It won’t be long before the Trumpster convinces all Americans that his double junk greaseburger with extra processed cheese and supersize fries diet is the key to survival. I predict all burger joints will be consolidated into a new chain, the Trumpster. Buy a double supersize and get a free blonde main of hair to go with the pot belly.

#141 Stone on 03.09.20 at 9:51 pm

#129 Hopeful Monster on 03.09.20 at 8:47 pm
First, the bug. There have been (as I write this) 111,700 cases in the world. Of those, 63,000 people recovered. They’re fine. There are 45,000 folks who still have it, 40,000 of them with a mild dose. Just under 6,000 people (out of 7.7 billion) are serious. Some – mostly the old, with underlying conditions – will die.

Don’t be so stupid, Garth. Your statement is like saying not to worry about a few trees on fire in a dry forest. At least try and read some forecasts from EXPERTS in virology and epidemiology (which you are assuredly not) to get a sense of where this might be heading. I’d no more accept your ignorant opinion on the coronavirus than your opinion on chemotherapy. You don’t know anything about either subject. It’s not your wheelhouse and it shows. Badly.

Ah, now that you’ve had a dump on my blog, why not tell us part of the quoted text is inaccurate? – Garth

———

Well, you do realize most of those “EXPERTS” got their degrees out of the equivalent of a cereal box, right?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHTg5zzFEKE

And you used the word “wheelhouse”. Big words, little brain. Tsk. Tsk.

Of course we know Garth is no expert on this. We come here for the dog pics and his acerbic wit. It’s called GreaterFool, not W.H.O.

If on the other hand, he says something silly about investing (like buying pref shares), by all means, it’s game on. Lol.

Now, go bug the W.H.O. folks with their fake degrees. I’m sure they’ll tell you to piss off because they’re not nice people.

#142 Paul on 03.09.20 at 9:53 pm

26 Steven Rowlandson on 03.09.20 at 4:10 pm
What the heck is this toilet paper hoarding madness?
Are they trying to corner the bum wad market or are they just going cuckoo?
————————————————————————————————
They are cuckoo, went to Costco today to shop needed toilet paper. The whole back wall where the paper is usually is packed to the ceiling was all paper towels not one roll of t paper left and yes they were buying the paper towels

#143 Piet on 03.09.20 at 9:59 pm

@ #62 akashic record on 03.08.20 at 6:31 pm

The burning question is (of course), whether toilet paper hoarding is fundamentally different instinct from money hoarding aka portfolio.

Second burning question, which has more devastating overall consequences to environment, health?

Recommended literature: Charles Eisenstein The Sacred Economics

For the reading challenged there is always YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK-ohudWUl8

———–
Thanks for the link. Exploring Eisenstein’s YouTube channel now. The spiritual implications of our economic system is an interesting topic.

#144 604 Refugee on 03.09.20 at 10:02 pm

We’re in uncharted waters and even Captain Turner, although he doesn’t show it, knows that his ship could sink any day now. All the bubble markets are imploding, and all it took to set off the chain reaction was a plague of biblical proportions.

#145 Doug in London on 03.09.20 at 10:14 pm

When the storm hit, she couldn’t take it. ‘Get me out,’ she said. ‘Sell it all, before it goes to zero.
————————————————————
I still don’t get it. The same people who sell when stocks are down will stand outside in freezing cold weather before stores open on Boxing Day or Black Friday to get in FAST to scoop up deals.

@ The Bright Side, post #50:
If you go on a buying blitz now, you could have more capital gains than you know what to do with when markets recover as they always do.

#146 Doug t on 03.09.20 at 10:14 pm

I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It’s a depression. Everybody’s out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel’s worth. Banks are going bust. Shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street, and there’s nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there’s no end to it! We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TVs while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that’s the way it’s supposed to be! We know things are bad — worse than bad. They’re crazy. It’s like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don’t go out anymore. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we are living in is getting smaller, and all we say is: ‘Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials and I won’t say anything. Just leave us alone.’ Well, I’m not gonna leave you alone. I want you to get MAD! I don’t want you to protest, I don’t want you to riot, I don’t want you to write to your congressman, because I wouldn’t know what to tell you to write. I don’t know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street. All I know is that first you’ve got to get mad! [shouting] You’ve got to say: ‘I’m a human being, goddammit! My life has value!’

#147 Doug in London on 03.09.20 at 10:21 pm

@Ronaldo, post #127:
I have no idea. I actually sold a bunch off at $13.50 and scooped up more XEG today, just before filling up my car with GASOLINE, an oil product by the way.

#148 Notagreaterfool on 03.09.20 at 10:24 pm

The past 8 days have brought us some will say two black swan events. Is this the final move that will implode real estate?

Households who bailed out the economy over the last several years are expected to do this again?

#149 Dr Talc on 03.09.20 at 10:25 pm

It is possible that toilet paper stockpiling is not even happening.
Rather, it is an international operation of artificial scarcity, conducted at the distribution level, to create panic and mass hysteria.

#150 Ronaldo on 03.09.20 at 10:49 pm

#15 Kilt on 03.09.20 at 3:56 pm
Canadian banks are looking very inexpensive.

Kilt.
———————————————————–
Not so sure. RBC is still up 242% from the low in Feb. 2009 not counting dividends on top of that.

#151 Ronaldo on 03.09.20 at 10:53 pm

My crystal ball tells me that we are likely going to see a major bounce back up in the morning and some major volatility during the trading day and probably closing even for the day. Let’s see what happens.

#152 Cash is King on 03.09.20 at 11:00 pm

Mostly, chill. Spend time with your dog. Ask her tonight about the Dow futures.

Took your advice and spend the night with my dog. This is what HE said.

Asked what his opinion of the Alberta economy will be for the remainder of 2020. His response… Rough.

Asked him should I sell out or sit like a tree at the side of the road and watch this correction go by. His response…Bark.

Asked him if the thought Prime Minister Selfie was doing enough to prevent the spread of the virus. His response…growl

Definitely need to consult my dog more often.

#153 Mr Canada on 03.09.20 at 11:38 pm

A few observations from today;

The value of my portfolio is now where it was in Oct 2019.
Gold went down today too, not up.
Near Zero Bond yields are costing you money
If Oil remains low, look for the C$ to drop to mid 60’s
The Coronavirus proves .46 cents out or every $ the province spends on healthcare is not enough to save us from any major event, let alone a pandemic.
Happy Tuesday!

#154 PastThePeak on 03.09.20 at 11:44 pm

#48 JSS on 03.09.20 at 5:03 pm
Suncor: $27.56; 6.7% dividend
Enbridge $42.70; 7.6% dividend
Canadian Natural Resources: $21.43; 7.9% dividend

Wow.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Yep. I bought more of all 3 today (plus some US pipeline companies). While the overall market bottom may be in the future, picking up quality names down 20% in one day (after already selling off over the last few weeks, while already being down below rest of market…) is too good to pass up.

The future is unknowable, but adding quality dividend growth stocks when on deep discount is a reasonable strategy. Unfortunately, the energy portion of my portfolio is just about full…

#155 SoggyShorts on 03.09.20 at 11:59 pm

#23 Steph on 03.09.20 at 4:06 pm

The question is…how will I know when it is the right time – what are the signals the market is recovering and on its way up?

********
You’ll know once you’ve missed it.
If there were reliable signals no one would ever lose money.

#156 Snake Plisken on 03.10.20 at 12:06 am

Anyone seen Cuervo Jones around here. I have an issue I wish to discuss.

Just call me snake…

#157 robfordlives on 03.10.20 at 12:20 am

So when this is over in a few months we will have

-FED interest rates near 0%
-10 year treasuries paying less than 0.5%
-S&P yielding north of 2%
-Massive stimulus packages (one coming tomorrow, expect many more)
-Trump re-election
-Massive supply chain rebound affect that will show up in Q3 numbers being reported

Dow 35,000 DECEMBER 2020 BUY BUY BUY

#158 Beer Drinking Blue Collar on 03.10.20 at 12:21 am

What about AMZN stock?

If everyone is homebound/quarantined, AMZN can deliver all goods from their website to the front doors. I wonder if they can gain from all this?

#159 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.20 at 12:23 am

#29 Lost…but not leased on 03.09.20 at 4:11 pm
CRUISE Update:

We are DONE(sell or at least “short” your cruise line stocks ?!? )

As mentioned earlier…we were planning a Carribbean cruise…mid March 2020.

Being Canadians on a cruise..we required private health coverage.

Just found out our private insurer(Major company) has CANCELLED all cruise ship coverage due to the coronavirus.

I thought the cruise line may cancel….but this is being compromised at the periphery. No way we will take a chance…especially with a 85 year old.
————–
Finally you come to your senses.
Money and time is much better spend on a stay cation.
Cruises are soo overrated and detrimental to your health.

#160 David on 03.10.20 at 12:37 am

Very tough to see much promise in oil and gas stocks for a very long time. A lot of people are warning of value traps and sucker rallies. I am starting to think that Garth was right about investment grade bonds for safety. There are some quite good investment grade etf bond funds with great liquidity. Unfortunately this corona virus is leading to some very exaggerated market behaviour.

#161 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.20 at 12:42 am

Where’s the sailor boy?
Counting his losses?

#162 Basil Falun on 03.10.20 at 1:26 am

Having enough cash in the mattress to weather every storm is where it’s at. My pile is long vacay money, 10 years to forever in Hawaii if I want. The cash just keeps coming in. Dividends in five figures every month means buying whether the market is up or down. I’m quite happy to be buying equity gems and dividends kings at wash out prices. The screams of capitulation panic are music to my ears. The yields on golden gods in the Utility and Consumer Durable space are spectacular. The panicked sellers should know, I laugh at their pain.

#163 Tony on 03.10.20 at 1:36 am

Re: #15 Kilt on 03.09.20 at 3:56 pm

European banks looked inexpensive about 5 years ago ’til negative interest rates demolished them. I wonder what’s going to happen when Trump tries to save Wall Street with negative interest rates? Remember Powell publicly stated no interest rates cuts for next year at near the end of 2019. That tells you negative interest rates are coming to America right after the 2020 election is over and all the dough Trump doled out to get re-elected needs to be paid back.

#164 Jane Doe on 03.10.20 at 5:05 am

As a kid I lived in India for 2.5 years. The fact is that a majority of Indians, Sri Lankan, Pakistani’s , Afghans, many Asians and most Chinese, all Africa Inc Middle East, North Africa, don’t use toilet paper. They wipe with the hand and rinse hand in a water can if available, usually not.

In fact the government of India has a tough fight on their hands trying to convince people to install indoor toilets. There’s a big campaign. Indians don’t want flush toilets.

I’m not crapping on people from anywhere, but when you hire persons from non toilet paper countries to work on cruise ships, as field workers etc etc etc etc, you can be assured that they are cleaning their bums with the hand.

Corona is also fecal transmitted, so why does it spread so fast on cruise ships, care homes, restaurants? Who is working there? Did they touch your tray? Did you wonder why the Rota Virus sickens huge numbers of cruise ship and hotel guests? Hand to Ass transmission.

OK, this might be the king of all politically correct topics, but. Look at the facts.

#165 Howard on 03.10.20 at 5:16 am

Friend of mine had a Paris-NYC flight last week. Air France. Plane was half empty for a flight between two of the world’s major economic centres.

#166 just snootin' on 03.10.20 at 5:56 am

Just running some numbers to show we have a different virus situation in Canada…

On February 1,
South Korea had 2 cases
Italy had 2 cases
US had 8 cases
Canada had 4 cases

On March 9,
South Korea has 7478 cases and 54 deaths
Italy has 9172 cases and 463 deaths
US has 565 cases and 24 deaths
Canada has 78 cases and one death

There may be many explanations why Canada has fared better. I suspect behaviour, lower travel rates, and health management. Singapore has also managed this contagion well, starting Feb 1 with 8 cases and now showing 130 cases with 82 recovered. BC started Feb 1 with one case and now has 32 with one death. Washington State hasn’t fared as well with 162 cases and 21 deaths.

#167 Sail Away on 03.10.20 at 6:11 am

#161 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.20 at 12:42 am

Where’s the sailor boy?
Counting his losses?

————————-

Busy busy. So much on sale. So little time.

#168 Phylis on 03.10.20 at 6:37 am

#164 Jane Doe on 03.10.20 at 5:05 am Where’s the like button? I liked the closing assertion, you have interesting politics.

#169 Captain Uppa on 03.10.20 at 7:44 am

I cannot believe how many people I had to talk off the ledge yesterday. “It’s over, it’s all over!” and “I gotta sell right now before I lose everything!”

No wonder people fail at this when they have zero emotional control.

If that’s you, please get a 60/40 diversified ETF portfolio and pay someone to manage it. Then go enjoy your life.

#170 Tony on 03.10.20 at 7:54 am

Dow puts in the low for the year on the same day the bull market started March 09.

#171 Toronto_CA on 03.10.20 at 8:05 am

Darn it…my Shell orders didn’t go through because it went up 12% this morning over here in the UK.

I got some shares at 1360, hoping to get more if it goes below 1400. Buy in the dips…especially when the dips are 18% in one day and the world has lost its mind!

#172 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 8:10 am

169 Captain Uppa on 03.10.20 at 7:44 am
I cannot believe how many people I had to talk off the ledge yesterday. “It’s over, it’s all over!” and “I gotta sell right now before I lose everything!”

No wonder people fail at this when they have zero emotional control.

If that’s you, please get a 60/40 diversified ETF portfolio and pay someone to manage it. Then go enjoy your life.
————

All True C U but how about you don’t bother with any of it and just go buy a multi plex or two of some sort ?

Interest rates going to zero , rents going up mean net cash flow regardless of capital appreciation or not on property. ( we all know it’s probably going Uppa though)

Just saying

#173 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 8:28 am

127 Ronaldo on 03.09.20 at 8:34 pm
XEG down 80% from its high in March 2011. Now at 4.80. I wonder how the blog dog who was doing tummy rubs at around $12.00 a couple years back is feeling about this dog of an etf that he was scooping up at those levels.
——-.

So true Ronaldo. The way some of the regular blog posters speak about their respective trading acumen, how they ALL buy low and sell high, you would think that they sat on the board at Berkshire and have their cell phone numbers on Warren Buffett’s speed dial LMAO.

All these posters here are POSERs losing money in these terrible financial markets.

I admit it up front that I have done poorly with my relatively small financial asset portfolio but boy easypeasy with substantial brick and mortar holdings

#174 MF on 03.10.20 at 8:29 am

#172 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 8

Currency going to get hit as well.

Lol @ anyone who believes real estate is immune to recessions.

I guess we just ignore history and put our head in the sand these days. Or, maybe we should hold our hands over our ears and say lalalalala really loud. That will make the bad news go away so we can feel good about the debt we want to take on.

MF

#175 It Could Be Much Worse on 03.10.20 at 8:32 am

Markets always overshoot in either direction. The first question everyone should be asking is what things would look like if there was no coronavirus.

China and South Korea are already over the worst of it. What’s the probability that the virus will burn out over the next 2, 3, 4 months?

The market has probably priced in a recession. What are the odds that the recession will turn out to be just 1 or perhaps 2 slow quarters which will be followed by pent up demand?

#176 Captain Uppa on 03.10.20 at 8:37 am

All True C U but how about you don’t bother with any of it and just go buy a multi plex or two of some sort ?

Interest rates going to zero , rents going up mean net cash flow regardless of capital appreciation or not on property. ( we all know it’s probably going Uppa though)

Just saying

——————————————————

I’m not too well versed in all that. Personally, I am only interested in my primary residence and then investing the rest in various 60/40 accounts.

Though I do have interest in a summer home for my family and subsequent generations of my family. So not with flipping in mind.

#177 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.20 at 8:41 am

I guess the optics of the Trump Puppet standing on the Kremlin podium clapping his hands at the Russian soldiers marching by……was too much even for a Manchurian Candidate to do during an election year?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-putin/kremlin-says-trump-cannot-visit-russia-for-victory-day-in-may-idUSKBN20X18T

#178 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.10.20 at 8:44 am

The only benefit to all this is the oil sands and pipelines will not expand. At least our grandchildren will get something out of it. Hope they can manage it better than the current crop of idiots. I think they will.

#179 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.20 at 8:53 am

@#175 It will be much worse
“What’s the probability that the virus will burn out over the next 2, 3, 4 months?”
++++

Very likely, since most viruses fade away during the Summer months and then come back with a vengeance in the next Fall and Winter. Cold ,wet months where people are in close proximity to each other.
The Summer months give the virus time to mutate.

And the media being the lapdogs that they are….will join in the chorus of self congratulation and back slapping that follows. They will move on to other stories because people are tired of hearing about CV-19 24/7…( Hell . I’m sick of all the “news” coverage now)
Then the media lapdogs will follow the Trump election carnival show during the Summer and early Fall, ignoring the “old news” of renewed flu infections.
This time next year could be even more interesting.
Africa ( 800 million peeps) and India ( 1.1 billion peeps) have barely even been mentioned so far.
Time will tell.

#180 IHCTD9 on 03.10.20 at 9:00 am

#178 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.10.20 at 8:44 am
The only benefit to all this is the oil sands and pipelines will not expand. At least our grandchildren will get something out of it.
___

Your grandchildren won’t care about pipelines or oil sands because they probably will have to leave Canada to find work.

#181 neo on 03.10.20 at 9:09 am

I gotta say your take on Covid-19 is pretty disappointing. You seems to be taking a pretty flippant stance on it.

Yes, the death rate isn’t what other flus like Sars and Ebola have been but it is far more contagious which means an already overwhelmed health care system in Canada will simply be overrun with patients with the virus. Even a 10% bump from where we currently are isn’t good.

Second, just because it effects Boomers like yourself more as far as mortality is concerned isn’t trivial. Boomers are still a huge age cohort.

Third, health care professionals are not being given the support from our Federal government in terms of measures to protect staff treating the illness. Many doctors and nurses still have not received the masks they were promised by the Trudeau government. What happens if doctors and nurses begin to fall ill from treating patients knowingly or unknowingly. We still don’t have enough test kits either.

There are layers to this that our current system just is ill prepared for and our government is tardy and unprepared for.

#182 miketheengineer on 03.10.20 at 9:21 am

Garth et al:

I completely understand if you don’t want to print this comment.

A bunch of numbers. Italy is doubling deaths about every 4 days from the numbers that I saw from their charts.

We now have death #1 in Canada. We will have ~500 dead in Canada if we follow what is happening in Italy and apply those numbers here.

That gives us April 12 as the ~day that Canada matches Italy for deaths ~500 Dead. Assuming that all the corona virus deaths are recorded properly and not recorded as pneumonia deaths (no record…no problem)

I really hate numbers…and I really hope my analysis is WRONG….curses being an engineer.

#183 Howard on 03.10.20 at 9:22 am

#172 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 8:10 am

All True C U but how about you don’t bother with any of it and just go buy a multi plex or two of some sort ?

Interest rates going to zero , rents going up mean net cash flow regardless of capital appreciation or not on property. ( we all know it’s probably going Uppa though)

Just saying

———————————–

Where are rents still going up? Not in Toronto or Vancouver, where rents peaked a year ago. Maybe they’ll go back up but unlike purchase prices, rents are constrained by what locals can pay.

#184 not 1st on 03.10.20 at 9:40 am

#178 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.10.20 at 8:44 am

Again an oil know nothing with the nerve to pipe in. Too bad oil GDP has to carry you too.

From yesterdays NP;

“On average, Canadian producers break even pumping oil if the price of a West Texas barrel is somewhere in the high-US$30 range. But that’s an average break-even threshold for an industry with a wide variation in costs; that means at that level about half the companies can’t pay their bills and half are treading water.”

So yes Canadian companies will survive and yes the oil sands will expand. The resource will develop with or without you. And yes the pipeline capacity will come with it.

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.20 at 9:44 am

@#181 neo
“What happens if doctors and nurses begin to fall ill from treating patients knowingly or unknowingly.”
++++

Raises an interesting question.

The Long term Care facility( old folks home) that held Canada’s first Corona 19 victim is having issues with staff not showing up for work.

The 6pm news last night featured several family members that commented that they saw their parents and other elderly patients that hadn’t been fed or bathed. The patients were hungry and filthy. Family members were pitching in to help with cleaning and bathing….. some staff members had worked double shifts to cover for other no shows.

One man pulled his 100 year old mother OUT of the facility ( and lost her “place” in the facility (she goes to the back of the years long waiting line to wait to be admitted again) and took her home.

When the govt officials were asked about staff shortages they immediately fell back on the media doublespeak pablum, “We’re concerned”…. “some staff are sick”……”we’re making arrangements”…..
Nothing concrete. Nothing verifiable.

#186 Doug in London on 03.10.20 at 10:05 am

@PastThePeak, post #154:
That’s what I’ve been doing also. When’s the best time to buy stocks? When there’s blood in the streets, which is the case, especially with energy stocks right now.

#187 leebow on 03.10.20 at 10:13 am

#182 miketheengineer

You have to adjust for population. We now have the same situation as Italy on Feb 23 and South Korea on Feb 20. Compare the Italian and SK charts they look very different.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

What will our chart look like in two weeks is a big Q and guesses can be made. We are almost exactly on par with the US of A at this time.

Once this passes we’ll know much more about dealing with pandemics. Antifragility, as Nassim Taleb describes it.

#188 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.20 at 10:22 am

A well researched story.
One of the rare ones from Canadian media….

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/03/09/covid-19-blamed-for-first-death-in-canada-as-resident-of-bc-long-term-care-home-dies.html

#189 not 1st on 03.10.20 at 10:22 am

Who is doing the selling and buying? I doubt its the mom and pop types. Americans invest via 401Ks for the long term in actively managed programs. I doubt they are running to their brokers after a couple days of carnage and selling. Canadians are all in on RRSPs and pensions and very few have much of their own money in the market. That’s why those TFSAs are empty or filled with GICs. I mean joe public is in line for tp, I doubt they are doing any trading.

So who or what would cause a 2,000 pt drop one day and now up 1000 today? This has the mark of hedge finds, institutional investors and algos al over it.

#190 David Hawke on 03.10.20 at 10:37 am

#180 IHCTD9 Spot-on!!!

Garth is also Spot-on once again!

#191 IHCTD9 on 03.10.20 at 10:44 am

#118 Nonplused on 03.09.20 at 8:07 pm

Sometimes I think those guys you see in the pubs with their tattoos and leather jackets with badges on them and a Harley parked out front have it right. Tomorrow is just another day as far as they are concerned, it’s nothing to plan for or worry about. “Smoke ’em if you got ’em” is their mantra.
___

This is where the Western born and raised Male is likely headed in the decades coming. The headaches and liabilities of traditional Western life have already well exceeded the payback. Suicide is thru the roof for those who gave it a shot anyway (6X higher than Women).

Most Men are pretty pragmatic, and if they do not marry, their decision making will be as pure as it can be. IMHO, most Men of sound mind default to simple, reliable, free, and enjoyable.

So a minimalist lifestyle. Could be a herbivore dude from Japan, or said Harley mounted drifter in North America. It’s the same foundation.

#192 Howard on 03.10.20 at 11:14 am

#191 IHCTD9 on 03.10.20 at 10:44 am
#118 Nonplused on 03.09.20 at 8:07 pm

Sometimes I think those guys you see in the pubs with their tattoos and leather jackets with badges on them and a Harley parked out front have it right. Tomorrow is just another day as far as they are concerned, it’s nothing to plan for or worry about. “Smoke ’em if you got ’em” is their mantra.
___

This is where the Western born and raised Male is likely headed in the decades coming. The headaches and liabilities of traditional Western life have already well exceeded the payback. Suicide is thru the roof for those who gave it a shot anyway (6X higher than Women).

Most Men are pretty pragmatic, and if they do not marry, their decision making will be as pure as it can be. IMHO, most Men of sound mind default to simple, reliable, free, and enjoyable.

So a minimalist lifestyle. Could be a herbivore dude from Japan, or said Harley mounted drifter in North America. It’s the same foundation.

————————————

A consequence, partially, of the transfer (theft) of wealth from the private sector employees (mostly male) to public sector employees (mostly female) who work half the hours for a tenth the stress. Why bother, especially in Canada where there are none of the tradeoffs of a more socialistic society that one finds in Europe (long vacations, etc)?

#193 Nanic on 03.10.20 at 11:32 am

#20 Bob Dog on 03.09.20 at 4:03 pm

That tweet was proven to be a fake. Look it up.

#194 espressobob on 03.10.20 at 11:44 am

Fingertip is getting sore buying up more bargains again like VXC and ZCN.

This never gets boring.

#195 Toronto_CA on 03.10.20 at 11:57 am

This volatility is going to test the people who eschew 60/40 portfolios! Up down left right and back again! Good luck everyone.

#196 Sail Away on 03.10.20 at 11:57 am

#173 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 8:28 am

So true Ronaldo. The way some of the regular blog posters speak about their respective trading acumen, how they ALL buy low and sell high, you would think that they sat on the board at Berkshire and have their cell phone numbers on Warren Buffett’s speed dial LMAO.

All these posters here are POSERs losing money in these terrible financial markets.

————————

Really, you think that?

There were a dozen or more yesterday saying they were buying. What’s not to believe: the markets were open, they were saying exactly what they were doing.

Why would you not believe them?

#197 bdwy sktrn on 03.10.20 at 12:12 pm

shhhhhh… still hiding in the bushes watching the fat lumbering market get closer and closer. fully loaded, laser sights on.

it’s almost too easy. coming (+10%?) closer yet , be patient, hold your fire. oil to get much worse apparently.

10y still sick. stox cant bounce off a -2000 day

but all of that is meaningless cause I said it.

There is one guy who is the smartest of all mr. el-erian.

He says in his goofy accent, very correctly and clearly, “there will be oppportunity , but not now.”

#198 Toronto_CA on 03.10.20 at 12:16 pm

#173 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 8:28 am

So true Ronaldo. The way some of the regular blog posters speak about their respective trading acumen, how they ALL buy low and sell high, you would think that they sat on the board at Berkshire and have their cell phone numbers on Warren Buffett’s speed dial LMAO.

All these posters here are POSERs losing money in these terrible financial markets.

_______

I assure you’ve I spent a lot of my free cash on oil and financial shares in the last 24 hours. I don’t need the money I’m spending in the next few years and I believe in taking calculated risks (buying when a good dividend paying bluechip stock falls irrationally 18% in one day when it was already at a 52-week low, for instance).

This isn’t rocket science, nor without risk, but I assure you people on this blog are “buying low” (not sure anyone is selling high though!).

Disclaimer: For my retirement, I’m balanced and not in individual shares and follow Garth’s model (though a bit more like 80/20 cause I’m still young and okay with risks).

#199 Marco on 03.10.20 at 12:16 pm

DELETED

#200 bdwy sktrn on 03.10.20 at 12:31 pm

(not sure anyone is selling high though!)
……………………………..
SDS etf ; 23.50 when i mentioned it a few weeks ago, now 32. that’s high.

#201 James on 03.10.20 at 12:36 pm

In Washington, next moves are uncertain. But it’s an election year. The orange guy has so far taken the market’s performance as a proxy for his presidency, and it’s unlikely the pump won’t be primed by a massive aid package, personal tax cuts and maybe even tariff cuts to get China back online faster. It will be breathtaking how quickly the anti-global agenda is trashed. Because it’s bunk.
_____________________________________________
So what your saying Garth is that the Orange guy is an incompetent nincompoop and that he will be eating his own words? Probably on a Big Mac.

#202 Sail away on 03.10.20 at 12:37 pm

EasyPeasy:

I have been buying the drop since about 10% down through yesterday and am still buying (what appear to me to be) oversold stocks today.

If this does indeed turn out to be a low point, then yes, I and all blogdogs buying now will have bought at a low.

It isn’t completely unbelievable that some investors logically evaluate the situation and act accordingly. It doesn’t always work, but it often does.

#203 Stone on 03.10.20 at 12:37 pm

#164 Jane Doe on 03.10.20 at 5:05 am
As a kid I lived in India for 2.5 years. The fact is that a majority of Indians, Sri Lankan, Pakistani’s , Afghans, many Asians and most Chinese, all Africa Inc Middle East, North Africa, don’t use toilet paper. They wipe with the hand and rinse hand in a water can if available, usually not.

In fact the government of India has a tough fight on their hands trying to convince people to install indoor toilets. There’s a big campaign. Indians don’t want flush toilets.

I’m not crapping on people from anywhere, but when you hire persons from non toilet paper countries to work on cruise ships, as field workers etc etc etc etc, you can be assured that they are cleaning their bums with the hand.

Corona is also fecal transmitted, so why does it spread so fast on cruise ships, care homes, restaurants? Who is working there? Did they touch your tray? Did you wonder why the Rota Virus sickens huge numbers of cruise ship and hotel guests? Hand to Ass transmission.

OK, this might be the king of all politically correct topics, but. Look at the facts.

———

Yes, I like this comment too.

#204 Vitamin D3 and Covid 19 on 03.10.20 at 12:41 pm

Thank you for the valuable information.

Only now on my unit is the manager getting prepared with Covid 19 meetings. What is key is maximizing immunity. You are correct, it seems mostly old are at risk according to statistics, however there are young who succumb to the disease. Perhaps they are outliers.

It appears the ACE2 receptors in the lungs are most at risk. Vit D3 is proven to deal with these receptors. This means a dose of 1,000 units daily D3 provided your levels are at adequate will help prevent lung problems and if bad, dying. Vitamin C in large amounts 1-2 gm a day if well and 2 gm every 2 hours if sick also help although the evidence is not as solid as vitamin D3. Zinc in small amounts also helps immunity.

Additionally exercise that works the lungs to increase VO2 is valuable, provided you are not sick.

Im thinking of cancelling my Netflix. It seems I feel like Im living in a Stephen King movie. First the Covid virus which will likely reside in the unit next to mine in the Alberta hospital where I work, now the saudi oil influx and no plan by Kenney in Alberta to do the logical thing and start a PST. Its going to be a wild ride.

https://vitamindwiki.com/COVID-19+Coronavirus+can+most+likely+be+fought+by+Vitamin+D#Why_How_Vitamin_D_both_treats_and_prevents_Coronavirus

#205 Ubul on 03.10.20 at 12:59 pm

#48 JSS on 03.09.20 at 5:03 pm
Suncor: $27.56; 6.7% dividend
Enbridge $42.70; 7.6% dividend
Canadian Natural Resources: $21.43; 7.9% dividend

Looks good on paper, unless they have to do what Occidental today: slashing dividend from 79 cents to 11 cents.

Then you are stuck with dogs.

#206 Dups on 03.10.20 at 1:17 pm

I do not see the gas prices go down do any of you? When oil tanks 30% gas prices go down 3 cent. When oil goes up 10% gas prices go up 10%…What gives?

These seem to be political games, Putin, Trump, Rocket guy, Xi, Arab guy, Supreme leader guy, etc…playing ball with each other, one throws the other catches… beats us, we are just spectators in a gladiator show!

#207 Lambchop on 03.10.20 at 1:41 pm

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / March 10, 2020 / The Schall Law Firm, a national shareholder rights litigation firm, announces that it is investigating claims on behalf of investors of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (“Occidental” or “the Company”) (NYSE:OXY) for violations of securities laws.

#208 Attrition on 03.10.20 at 1:42 pm

Bought back in.

Utilities, agriculture, REIT, CDN banks, S&P, and Govt bond ETFs. I’m expecting things to go lower still, but my horizon on these funds is 10+ years.

If anyone thinks food, utilities, real estate, or Canadian banks are going to disappear, or that cdn govts are going to default, I suggest you run to the hills.

For anyone else, do what Garth says, only slightly differently: ignore the noise, and seriously consider buying some bargains.

#209 IHCTD9 on 03.10.20 at 1:44 pm

#192 Howard on 03.10.20 at 11:14 am

A consequence, partially, of the transfer (theft) of wealth from the private sector employees (mostly male) to public sector employees (mostly female) who work half the hours for a tenth the stress. Why bother, especially in Canada where there are none of the tradeoffs of a more socialistic society that one finds in Europe (long vacations, etc)?
___

The way I see it, Men are slowly being released from the obligations and responsibilities of Nation building in the West which were defacto expectations of them in the past.

Women are now taking up the subsequent role of maintaining and administrating the finished society (just like they did with households) through working, earning, paying taxes and raising kids – although it looks like many of them will be doing so as single parents.

I think by the time Gen Z comes of age in the work force, there will be an undeniable trend among Men. Marriage and kids will not be on the to-do list for the majority, and elaborate time consuming personal endeavours will replace them.

Also, Gen Z may well have only 50% of the T levels the Boomers/Silent Gens had. This will make all things possible for these guys. They will have a certain natural freedom of choice older Men never had until their 50’s. Nature itself, seems also to be lifting the bridle off of Men, and retiring them to pasture.

Right now, young Men seem a little angry. They just haven’t realized what is happening yet. The responsibility for running society is being lifted from their shoulders, and being placed on to the backs of Women. It’s easy to see if you stay relaxed and just watch the progressive steps taken by Women’s advocates and governments. All this “equality” is actually responsibility, and liability – they just don’t realize it yet.

I would expect to see Western Men spreading themselves around the world in the coming decades. In fact, I’d guess they will be leaving the Western World too. They’ll live freely off a small income, and do what they want to do, in the time they want to take to do it.

Give it 20-30 more years, and I think Men could be living the easiest lives ever lived on this planet.

#210 Dups on 03.10.20 at 2:00 pm

@ #203 Stone on 03.10.20 at 12:37 pm

In old days of communist Europe, we used old Churchill and Stalin’s books to wipe our asses. Some probably used entire publication series in a span of a year. So TP users take a page from other country’s methods and do not panic, this shall pass too. Go out there and do your gut proud, buy when it is low!

#211 not 1st on 03.10.20 at 2:08 pm

Did you vote for this? Cmon now, don’t be shy. Good to know we have deep thinkers on the job as Canada teeters at the abyss.

“Trees are remarkable,” said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a speech last fall. “They pull carbon out of the atmosphere. They are renewable and they’re sustainable and, eventually, they even recycle themselves. All we have to do is plant the first one.”

#212 Blackdog on 03.10.20 at 2:13 pm

@IHCTD9 re: “Give it 20-30 more years, and I think Men could be living the easiest lives ever lived on this planet. ”

Or it could be a plot — to get rid of the men.

#213 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.10.20 at 2:20 pm

@#206 Dups, not sure about your neck of the woods, but gas is under 90 cents in Ottawa right now. I still recall the first time it hit a dollar in July 2005, which is $1.30 in today’s money if you adjust for inflation. (Don’t take my word for it, plug 1.00 into the Bank of Canada inflation calculator for 2005, and you’ll get 1.2991 today.) So, in real terms, gas is 40 cents less per litre than it was 15 years ago. That’s a 31% decline in 15 years.

If you’re expecting fuel to go down 50% or 80% like oil has, you’re not thinking this through. Even if oil was free, you’d still have to pay for refining, transport, excise taxes and carbon taxes.

#214 Sail away on 03.10.20 at 2:30 pm

#209 IHCTD9 on 03.10.20 at 1:44 pm

Give it 20-30 more years, and I think Men could be living the easiest lives ever lived on this planet.

————————-

Already am. Must be ahead of my time.

Or maybe it’s just mad skillz (in combination with a wife who runs a gov’t dept).

#215 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 2:38 pm

#174 MF on 03.10.20 at 8:29 am
#172 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 8

Currency going to get hit as well.

Lol @ anyone who believes real estate is immune to recessions.

I guess we just ignore history and put our head in the sand these days. Or, maybe we should hold our hands over our ears and say lalalalala really loud. That will make the bad news go away so we can feel good about the debt we want to take on.

MF

———-

Some of my rental real estate already paid for some with small mortgages all about to drop in cost. Meanwhile rents keep rising and ALL holdings cash flow positive.

Let the RE drop in value . Irrelevant and I will buy more.

You can keep slugging it out in the financial markets. Best of luck to you.

#216 oh bouy on 03.10.20 at 2:46 pm

@#196 Sail Away on 03.10.20 at 11:57 am
#173 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 8:28 am

So true Ronaldo. The way some of the regular blog posters speak about their respective trading acumen, how they ALL buy low and sell high, you would think that they sat on the board at Berkshire and have their cell phone numbers on Warren Buffett’s speed dial LMAO.

All these posters here are POSERs losing money in these terrible financial markets.

————————

Really, you think that?

There were a dozen or more yesterday saying they were buying. What’s not to believe: the markets were open, they were saying exactly what they were doing.

Why would you not believe them?
_____________________________-

random anonymous folks talking nonsense on the internet??
Why would you believe them?

#217 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 2:47 pm

#183 Howard on 03.10.20 at 9:22 am
#172 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 8:10 am

All True C U but how about you don’t bother with any of it and just go buy a multi plex or two of some sort ?

Interest rates going to zero , rents going up mean net cash flow regardless of capital appreciation or not on property. ( we all know it’s probably going Uppa though)

Just saying

———————————–

Where are rents still going up? Not in Toronto or Vancouver, where rents peaked a year ago. Maybe they’ll go back up but unlike purchase prices, rents are constrained by what locals can pay.
———

Tell you what Howard , let’s assume rents will never go up from here , silly assumption but I will concede that to you just for argument sake .

We all know interest rates are going lower or at least flat and not destined to rise for a very long time

Take a look at the cost of money verses total yield on a multi plex and let’s assume no gain in RE price for next 10 years.

I will take that return over the nutty financial market casino anyday of the week but I wish you luck otherwise even if you disagree

#218 Sold Out on 03.10.20 at 2:48 pm

I would expect to see Western Men spreading themselves around the world in the coming decades. In fact, I’d guess they will be leaving the Western World too. They’ll live freely off a small income, and do what they wandt to do, in the time they want to take to do it.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

24/7 Pornhub and fleshlights aren’t a lifestyle choice. Do you think they’ll find things easier by living in the Philippines or Thailand, where traditional family values are paramount but poverty demands certain compromises by women that westerners no longer tolerate?

Newsflash, women in these countries will become more educated and liberated, as well. If MGTOW think that they can just keep chasing developing world women on a “small income?”, they’re more delusional than we give them credit for.

I admit, I’d be quite happy to see all these angry incels leave, though.

#219 oh bouy on 03.10.20 at 2:51 pm

@#209 IHCTD9 on 03.10.20 at 1:44 pm
#192 Howard on 03.10.20 at 11:14 am

Give it 20-30 more years, and I think Men could be living the easiest lives ever lived on this planet.
_____________________________________

Pfft, its already here man.
Living my best life.

#220 Wait There on 03.10.20 at 2:53 pm

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/coronavirus-could-infect-35-to-70-per-cent-of-canadian-population-experts-say#comments-area

OK, reality here. The USA is struggling to get enough masks. In fact Peter Navarro was already on that issue three weeks ago. That is why Trump speaks well of China’s leader and to the degree he is willing to relax tariffs. He is now kissing a_se. Most of the personal protection materials that is both the masks themselves AND the material to fabricate them from is from China. China needs all that they can get a hold of because hereon in for at least a year or until everyone is eventually vaccinated, masks are mandatory. They need to ramp up production for themselves.

Now and only now the medical system in Canada feels that we are exposed. You’re darn right. The alarmists were right all along. Someone in the government should have checked with a what if scenario and determined if they had enough. No one did.

Now get this, enterprising buying groups were scooping up all the masks they could get their hands on and shipping them back East where they could be sold. Now we are short. The government and medical agencies should have seen the possibility and immediately stopped the sale of masks to anyone and especially buying groups. Now we simply don’t have any to use properly.

Now for those pointing to China and saying that the virus can be contained are unrealistic. First we don’t have enough masks for everyone to use and these must be disposed of at least once a day…NOT REUSED. Want to make some, where are we going to get the raw materials.

When Trump and his team was indicating steel as a national security measure, they were thinking in terms of warfare and arms. Nobody was thinking biological warfare. I’m not saying this virus is made by man. It is just that medical dependency was ignored by men who think guns and tanks.

Now we will learn the cost of offshoring. The pendulum will swing after this is done.

Oh by the way, Mr. Socks and Mr. French Villa, there are now insufficient GPs. Chase some more out with your tax policies.

#221 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 2:56 pm

#196 sail away
#198 Toronto -ca

You both mis interpreted what I was saying or I was not clear enough.

I don’t doubt that there were buyers and sellers yesterday.. that is very definition of the markets and I don’t have any reason to doubt that you were not both buyers.

What I was trying to convey is that the blog posts in general on this site convey a generality in aggregate that everyone here is much smarter, more astute and making more money than the average financial investor out there .

Well Berkshire Hathaway share price now down to fall of 2017 price. Warren himself is flat in returns over 2.5 years yet everyone here has “ blown his returns out of the water” it would seem lol.

Here is what I know for absolute certain. My multiplex units have appreciated far ,far more than Berkshire stock over same period, my own financial portfolio and I would venture only a guess , most people’s financial portfolios on this site .

Hope this clarifies my message

#222 MF on 03.10.20 at 3:04 pm

Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 2:38 pm

Where’d you see that?

On the remax website?

I guess you are just a superstar bud. You’ve found the key. I don’t really know what else to say. You’re right up there with Donald trump and his real estate empire.

Maybe write some books and give some lectures on the topic?

Suggested title: “Becoming a millionaire using other people’s money”.

Can’t lose! Real estate only goes up and is the best!

MF

#223 SimplyPut7 on 03.10.20 at 3:12 pm

Gas is supposed to be 92.9 cents in Toronto tomorrow.

Would be in the 80 cent range when you remove the federal carbon tax.

RBC building in the GTA sent home an entire floor because someone tested positive for the COVID-19. I’m not sure about this location, but I do know RBC has been experimenting with open concept floors for years now, no cubicles to stop an aerosol virus from spreading. They also like to put a lot of people on one floor, the floor could easily have 100-200 people working there.

https://www.cp24.com/news/whole-floor-of-rbc-workers-in-mississauga-in-self-quarantine-after-employee-diagnosed-with-covid-19-1.4846347

#224 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 3:17 pm

#220 MF

Why you so angry ? Ask yourself that question.

Yup , you answered it correctly. lol

#225 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.20 at 3:25 pm

@#215 easy peasy
“Meanwhile rents keep rising and ALL holdings cash flow positive.”
+++++

For now.
I rent in a highrise.
A 40 year old , well maintained building.
The owners sold about 6 months ago.
The new owners are idiots.
They have reno’ed about 20 suites.
Jacked the rent on those suites 40%. No takers.
They are annoying the shit out of long term tenants who are starting to move out.
They keep reno’ing. higher rents still the same. No one moving in ….
I dont mind, elevators and laundry are quick in an empty building….
Rents dont go up in a recession.

#226 Sail away on 03.10.20 at 3:35 pm

#215 Easypeasy on 03.10.20 at 2:38 pm

Some of my rental real estate already paid for some with small mortgages all about to drop in cost.

Meanwhile rents keep rising and ALL holdings cash flow positive.

Let the RE drop in value. Irrelevant and I will buy more.

You can keep slugging it out in the financial markets. Best of luck to you.

——————————-

Let’s examine this objectively using top figures in each field: Donald Trump and Warren Buffett.

Trump started with a number of properties and inherited cash and turned it into (let’s say) $10B and a presidency.

Buffett started with a father as a Congressman and very little in the way of cash, and turned it into $80B.

Choose your path. Either can be lucrative.

#227 Lambchop on 03.10.20 at 3:44 pm

#218 Sold Out on 03.10.20 at 2:48 pm

If MGTOW think that they can just keep chasing developing world women on a “small income?”, they’re more delusional than we give them credit for.

I admit, I’d be quite happy to see all these angry incels leave, though.

——————————–

Had to look up wtf MGTOW meant. Thanks for the laugh!
I thought incels were laughable and now this? These men are just one more result of the Participant Generation. Everyone deserves a ribbon so why wouldn’t everyone deserve a woman, right?
How about, maybe, just maybe, you do some self improvement so that someone might find you intelligent, attractive, interesting, funny… any one of those things goes a long way towards getting a date.

O what do I know anyway.

#228 Rexx Rock on 03.10.20 at 3:56 pm

Wow,I love these 1000 point up and down daily rallies on the market.The fed is great for day and swing trading stocks and etfs.I see the cad is going down,gotta love our goverment and CB.We should join the euro as a colony because it sucks when 3 rd world currencies are much stronger than ours.

#229 Mattl on 03.10.20 at 4:03 pm

I actually feel bad for you MF. Your RE obsession, anger, envy, disappointment is real.

I mean if RE is going to tank then you are sitting pretty. Why rant and rave on a blog about what is surely coming, just sit back, enjoy the ride. You will be buying a SFH in the Beaches for 600K in no time my friend. You are going to emerge the big RE winner, I can feel it.

#230 Westcdn on 03.10.20 at 4:04 pm

Here I sit in purgatory. My RBC accounts have been suspended for an investigation. I noticed that someone successfully hacked my ID and password – my fault, they must had software that recorded my keystrokes. I immediately e-mailed the “UK payday company” (since they were closed) that the transfer was a fraud. I called RBC and my accounts were shut down pending an investigation starting Sunday morning. Apparently it will take at least a week. I later got an e-mail from the UK company that Alvin could go pick up the transfer in the Philippines – rot in hell, Alvin. There is more to the story but I don’t want to bore you. So this what a partial CV19 quarantine could feel like.

I just bought this reconditioned desktop as my old one was showing signs of failure. I set it up on my home network and presumed it was protected by my antiviral service – wrong. I bought another antiviral program and purged the trojans then reinstalled windows. DOG only knows what the bastards hacked.

I have never lost so much money in a day as Monday. The worst part it was from the quarters least expected – my income paying companies. Some big money is running scared and I am forced to sit on my hands. Maybe it is a good thing while blood flows.

Glad to see Dolce and BillyBob are still are alive and kicking. It is much like those old Timex commercials – it can take a licking and keep on ticking. I will not forget Carter’s Little Liver pills or Queen for a Day either. Well Millennium, you have tough choices ahead. I am sure most will figure it out. The generational attitude behind you have seem to be take no prisoners – smaller but fierce. Don’t get me going on that Aboriginals are special people – the biggest insult landed on me was “that was mighty white”.

#231 IHCTD9 on 03.10.20 at 4:12 pm

#218 Sold Out on 03.10.20 at 2:48 pm

24/7 Pornhub and fleshlights aren’t a lifestyle choice. Do you think they’ll find things easier by living in the Philippines or Thailand, where traditional family values are paramount but poverty demands certain compromises by women that westerners no longer tolerate?

Newsflash, women in these countries will become more educated and liberated, as well. If MGTOW think that they can just keep chasing developing world women on a “small income?”, they’re more delusional than we give them credit for.

I admit, I’d be quite happy to see all these angry incels leave, though.
____

My comment was with regards to Men decades from now. The MGTOW/INCEL/MRA’s of today represent those Men caught in the change, not born into it.

However, these dudes can easily go to SE Asia right now, and pick up a wife, and bring her back here should they feel the need. It’ll be a relationship as they were centuries ago – more like a business contract:

1. He gets kids, a sex life, and some work done/bit o cash.

2. She gets a Western lifestyle, Western born and raised kids, access to Western jobs, currency, education, actual rights, security, health care, Citizenship, Western Passport, and a monthly paycheque for her folk(s) back home.

Fair deal IMHO, she actually wins the most. Probably not any riskier than shacking up with a Western Woman for the guy.

Some of these rural SEA ladies live on 2.00/day in a house filled with 2 generations worth of Fatherless offspring and in total poverty. The local Men are usually pretty horrible too. Plenty of these ladies are jonesing to gtfo asap.

I don’t believe the MGTOW dudes are after wives, they are more about short term “relationships” which are available to them right here in the West. No need for pornhub etc…

Incels should probably just get a good job and move to Nevada …

#232 Lost...but not leased on 03.10.20 at 4:36 pm

” Coronavirus “?!?!?

Proof please..

THNX

#233 YVR Expat on 03.10.20 at 5:01 pm

#71 JSS on 03.09.20 at 5:54 pm
This year is a “once-in-a-decade” opportunity to buy solid blue chip dividend growth stocks of Canadian corporations: Banking, insurance, telco, utilities, pipelines, oil-integrated, or ETF-equivalent of the above.

*************

Why are you buying Canadian stocks? Canada is CLOSED for business, T2 decided that earlier this year. Canada is in a race to the bottom.

#234 jim on 03.10.20 at 7:56 pm

The Housing Gap

In this new documentary series, explore the affordable-housing challenges facing cities in Ontario — and around the world;

https://www.tvo.org/article/the-housing-gap

#235 maxx on 03.10.20 at 7:59 pm

@ #94
Priceless!

#236 Doug in London on 03.10.20 at 9:27 pm

@Ubul, post #205:
Yes, dividends could be cut but that’s the risk you take and it’s already factored into price. Some small junior oil companies could get hammered or possibly even go under if prices stay low for a long time. The big ones like Suncor, Imperial Oil, and Royal Dutch Shell will endure this crisis and are a most likely good buy now. As for Enbridge, it will also endure this crisis and is also a good buy. Even if oil stays cheap for a long time it still needs to be transported.

#237 Ray on 03.11.20 at 1:06 am

I like the gold miners (the underlying asset has gone up almost $400, but the stocks have gone nowhere) and … Canadian oil stocks are soooooo cheap.