MSB

The burning question is (of course) will people who hoard toilet paper buy houses?

First, why in Dog’s name are folks storming supermarkets and Costcos, fighting over Cottonelle? How is that supposed to prepare you for a pandemic of snotty neighbours and wheezy co-workers? If you end up being quarantined what, exactly, will you do with a hundred rolls of tissue? Fifty bottles of single malt, I can understand. But this?

And yet from Honolulu to Sydney to Burnaby to Mississauga and Calgary the Tpaper mania continues. Here’s how the paper towels/toilet tissue aisle looked in Jeff’s local supermarket in Edmonton yesterday. “Are people idiots,” he asks? Yup.

Why toilet paper? “I wonder if this stockpiling is to do with what toilet paper represents as a mark of civilisation and our behaviour in its use distinguishing us from animals,” muses an Australian academic (shelves are empty there, too). After all, humans are the only species alive that do not self-clean, like your oven.

Likely, though, people have been MSB (mindlessly seeking bumwad) because everyone else is doing it. We’re herd animals, massively influenced by our peers. Especially now in an era of social media when stuff like this somehow becomes more important than, oh, the economy. Finally, faced with the overwhelming media coverage of the virus, the emotional toll its taking and the feeling of personal helplessness, MSB is something. It’s a task. An action. Because toilet paper is bulky and cheap, you can spend fifty bucks and feel rich in the new currency.

              

Listen, Doug, Ryan, Bandit and I have no special insight into what comes next. Will a Canadian city be quarantined? (Doubtful.) Will we have a recession? (More likely.) Will your balanced portfolio keeping melting away for the next two years? (Not a chance.) Will interest rates fall more? (Yes.) Will this turn real estate back into an inflating gasbag? Hmm. Let’s mull that one for a few minutes.

Last week both the Fed and the Bank of Canada slashed their key rates a half point. It was a rash, extreme move. More to come, too. So the cost of a mortgage is getting ridiculous again. In the last week Big Banks have dropped fivers to about 2.6% (inflation is 2.1%). Variables are at generally the same price, but will fall again by the third week in April. Central bank rates are destined to drop another .5% to a full 1% before this weird chapter in peoplekind history is done. Meanwhile you can get a 1.99% three-year mortgage or a VRM for as little as 2.1% from the broker with the falafel place downtown.

Cheap mortgages have caused FOMO and brought housing bubbles in the past. Will this be repeated in the spring of 2020?

Maybe not, given the toilet paper fetish and fear Covid-19’s been allowed to generate. As mentioned here last week, the Chinese and other offshore buyers have disappeared. Sellers may not want a bunch of germy, sneezy potential buyers traipsing through their houses, dispensing micro-droplets of liquid Armageddon. So listings could shrink over the next few months. And, oy, the economy. Oil has crashed, China’s been locked down, cruises are dead, airlines struggling and events being cancelled even where there have been zero cases. It’s hard to imagine how Canada can avoid a recession, especially after the damage the FN goofs and their moronic, misguided supporters did over the past few weeks.

Recessions mean job losses, and are not good for real estate. Neither, it turns out, are pandemic scares.

Blog dog Yogesh reminds us what happened the last time – during the SARS panic of 2003. Data from the Province of Ontario shows the last thing people wanted to do that spring was go shopping for a new house.

New home sales down 45% y/o/y in March, 36% in April. Resale home sales down 6.4% and 13.4% respectively. COVID-19 is here during almost the same months of the year, you will notice. As it turned out SARS was a dud in the long run, and COVID-19 might be too. But if there is one thing that has not changed between then and now, it is the human tendencies. Are we in for the same?

By the way, the Chinese real estate market has utterly collapsed. In 70 major cites home sales declined between 90% and 98% year/year last month. That impact is now being felt on the west coast of the US, where sales in Seattle (a hot market), for example, are tumbling.

So, will people here who hoard toilet paper buy houses? Or crave condos with group elevators and hallways full of unwashed strangers?

All we know for sure is that the next six weeks will be full of surprises.

Off to buy scotch now.

 

240 comments ↓

#1 Flop... on 03.08.20 at 3:29 pm

Boss, I know you sold the old Van you used to broadcast financial stuff out of, but can we bring it back?

Here’s my proposal.

We get a van and a t.v crew, and we drive around between Costco, Walmarts and Stupidstores and interview people on their reasons for hoarding toilet paper.

As usual, I’ll just be the ideas and hype man.

Yes, I’ve got a name for the spinoff.

Greaterpoo!…

M45BC

#2 Wuhan Realtor on 03.08.20 at 3:33 pm

You are SO wrong Mr. Turner!

Buy now, everyone, before you miss out!

Wuhan!

YVR!

GTA!

Prices will only go uppa, uppa, UPPA!!!!!

#3 TurnerNation on 03.08.20 at 3:33 pm

Our Forum Host, known affectionately as Gartho) rose to promience – well mainly on this pathetic weblog, with his bold demographic predictions.

Here’s an investment thesis along those lines. Buy up as much land and build/buy many Multi Family dwellings as possible, on the outskirts of these rural cities poised for great settlement. And others. Wish I had contacts around these to assist in this:

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/rural-northern-immigration-pilot.html


– This group largely of bankers and investors (elite rulers?) is pushing for 100 million people population by 2021.

https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/team/


How to sell us on this? Pick Cons or Libs they both are behind it:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/02/27/conservative-leadership-hopeful-wants-100-million-people-in-canada.html

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/the-sunday-edition-october-14-2018-1.4858401/canada-s-population-needs-to-be-100-million-by-2100-1.4860172

….

Precis: Uppa uppa up. The bankers need a stead flow of tax debt slaves. That’s us.
Keep investing in consumer goods, airlines etc.

How’s it going so far ? I saw these numbers from 2017. Not mine but anyone could vet as needed.

“For 2017
International Mobility Program: 224053
Temporary Foreign Workers: 78788
Student Permit Holders: 317328
Permanent Residence + Refugees: 350,000
Total: 970169 in 2017 alone

Provincial nominee program available to students. TFWs can transition to permanent residents. 500000 got citizenship in 2017”

#4 Mark on 03.08.20 at 3:34 pm

With two strains of this virus floating around (mutations?) Maybe the government knows more than it’s saying.
Might explain some of aggressive action on part of government??

#5 TurnerNation on 03.08.20 at 3:35 pm

Example property in a region, Sudbury

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20582645/2865-kingsway-sudbury

Well established motel and restaurant business and a city landmark for over 40 years now available for sale. Very profitable business with a good mix of room and restaurant income. Building and units have been very well maintained with a long list of upgrades made over the years provided upon signing of an NDA.

#6 COVFEFE-19 on 03.08.20 at 3:39 pm

Oh, this IS rich! Now, suddenly, Chinese money flows are affecting West coast North America real estate?

Just one factor, as mentioned. Foreign buyer levels have been pegged repeatedly at about 5%. – Garth

#7 Flop... on 03.08.20 at 3:43 pm

The hoarding, I still don’t get it, think of the scenario you are supposed to be needing it for.

I showed a video on here yesterday about an altercation in where people were fighting Down Under about what some people in the world use down under.

I remember one backpacking trip through Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Egypt, where I didn’t use any toilet paper for a couple of months.

So you’re on the crapper, quarantined, in your place of residence, in North America.

You realize you have no toilet paper left after doing your business.

Do you…

A) Get straight in the shower.

B Get straight back into your dirty clothes.

C) Get straight into your car and drive to a supermarket to buy some toilet paper , because you were too dumb to think of option A…

M45BC

#8 Bdwy on 03.08.20 at 3:47 pm

Is a quarantine different than…. Mandatory measures” to reduce public activities may be required to fight the spread of coronavirus, Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington said

Now in several nursing homes in wa and bc. The bc care worker worked in multilpe locations.

Look what lax measures got the Italians

#9 SOMETHINGS UP on 03.08.20 at 3:49 pm

If some say the VIRUS isn’t a big deal then WHY are the governments, scientists, doctors, and the media making it one?

Heart attacks and the flu kill thousands more every year – corona doesn’t apparently.

So then whats on big brothers’ agenda?

What are they trying to accomplish?

What is up?

Somethings up?

#10 Stan Brooks on 03.08.20 at 3:49 pm

You need a lot of toilet paper to cleanup the credit mess.

You can not fight major disruption in global supply with monetary policies.

We are in the begging of a major health scare and many major city will be quarantined. To say that there will be no Canadian city among those is hubris. Ignorance is something that we are very familiar with.

This is not a bad flu.

Coronavirus expert: ‘War is an appropriate analogy’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcJDpV-igjs&feature=youtu.be

CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations Dr Richard Hatchett explains the long-term dangers of the Covid-19 coronavirus – saying it’s the scariest outbreak he’s dealt with in his 20-year career

The guy says this is equivalent to world war 2.

UK is not an alarmist state. Take it seriously.

#11 paulo on 03.08.20 at 4:02 pm

well interesting times for sure.
Crystal Ball Gazing tells me that the following will likely come to pass soon:

This virus will cause a recession duration and depth to be seen.
Spring real estate market is road kill before it starts effects of the coming recession will put many current over indebted consumers to slaughter increasing housing supply into a market with no buyers in sight
Oil: 25 to 30/bbl especially after the pissed off Saudis open the taps to take those double dealing Russians to the wood shed.
what you should do as an investor: keep calm wait for the correct time to pick up some great stocks at deep discounts likely after the markets have dropped 10 to 15% lower than now.
grab the squeeze and go for a bike trip when the weather improves enjoy the deals on hotels and attractions,above all keep calm and sail on it will pass and the sun shall rise and set as always.

cheers enjoy the great weather we are getting for early march

#12 Debtslavecreator on 03.08.20 at 4:04 pm

Strong support is DOW 20-22 k. We should be there by end of March. Long term should be ok
Oil in full collapse and gold should be peaking in the next 10 days or so and then start a 6-9 month collapse of 6-900 dollars
The concern is NOT equities or gold : oil. We should be putting in long term bottoms in commodities over the next few months with a bubble 2022-2024

The HUGE and scary concern that is much more serious is the bond market. We are about to experience a horrific multi year period of crazy bond market disasters. In the next 6-12 months get ready for:
1) high yield bonds collapsing especially energy sector paper
2) to spread to the lower investment grade paper then make its way up to the higher IG paper
3) a large swath of so called (improperly rated) IG paper is issued by junk corporations with buyback debt and hollowed shells of businesses
4) then we will see major sovereign bond market collapses that should start in small emerging market countries then spread to japan and Europe finally wiping out Germany by 2023
5) final stage sees a sovereign debt crisis in North America
6) many mutual funds will be gated due to the pending bond market disaster as liquidity is poor and the economy in serious global recession with record debt
7) the RE market is going to collapse as unemployment explodes
8) China is in full collapse and the CCP should be overturned 2023-2025. China goes to war over Taiwan by 2025 but by the late 2030 s it will take over as the new superpower
9) by mid-late 2021 we enter a global monetary crisis
Interest rates are forced up as the world experiences a rising rate deflation and high unemployment with soaring food prices

You’re welcome !

Fool. You forgot the locusts. – Garth

#13 Rick Fast on 03.08.20 at 4:07 pm

Oil price collapse next week with ksa and russia. I suspect there will be some war soon or geopolitics that will hyper inflate price of oil to 100usd. Maybe straight of hormouz get bombed.

#14 COVFEFE-19 on 03.08.20 at 4:14 pm

Overheard:

– We can’t let it dock, it’ll mess up my numbers. And don’t test the ones who are still alive

– Most of them are Americans, sir

– Fake news! The ship’s flagged in Bermuda, so they’re Bermudists unless we let them back in

– That’s not how it works, sir

– Can we sink it and blame the North Koreans?

– The water out there is only 20 or 30 feet deep in many places, sir. The wreck will be visible from the Golden Gate, with or without a ‘Mission Accomplished’ banner on it

– Was that a joke?

– No, sir

– OK, send them back to Hawaii! That will save my numbers. Never should’ve let them in anyway!

– Hawaii is part of the US, sir

– What? Oh, OK, sure, Obama bought it to pretend he’d been born in America, I remember now. Let’s sell it back to the Russians, on condition they take the ship. Get me Vladimir

– Sir?

#15 WTF on 03.08.20 at 4:15 pm

All that you mentioned plus AIRBNB.

Someone “investing” in a property and needs the revenue to make the mortgage payments is gonna be sweating.

A few potential hiccups for them:

-Virus,
-too many suites competing in specific geographic location, prices must drop
-CRA AND municipal governments looking for their cut.

The forecast calls for pain

#16 I’m stupid on 03.08.20 at 4:15 pm

Looks like I’m going to raid the local Tim Hortons if I need toilet paper. Go in for a coffee and walk out with a couple of rolls of paper gold.

#17 Stan Brooks on 03.08.20 at 4:15 pm

experts say disruption will be global. 18 months minimum to build a vaccine. Social behavior to define spread patterns, with boomer’s heads on the chopping block should 50-70 % of population becomes infected or the virus stays with us perpetually/as the flu.

Fear is a big factor in human’s behavior, look at housing in Canada. In analogy: you may laugh at the hoarders but they will make sure there is no toilet paper at the store no matter what you do.

Society is fragile and at the same time tightly integrated in just-in-time optimized structure, not suited to handle emergencies of any type.

The impact to economy will be larger than expected. Italy is shutting down schools, restaurants, public gatherings in the northern part.

Oil to open on Monday 10 bucks down from Friday, at 32 bucks a barrel. Loonie crashed as people move to stable currencies/Euro, USD.

133 people die in Italy in a single day

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-italy-sees-largest-daily-rise-deaths-confirmed-181200199.html

#18 Post on 03.08.20 at 4:15 pm

And another reason real estate sales may slow…

CONDO INSURANCE CRISIS

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/blindsided-b-c-condo-residents-fearful-as-extent-of-insurance-crisis-remains-unclear

#19 Brian Ripley on 03.08.20 at 4:22 pm

The best employment earnings jurisdiction in Canada is Alberta:
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html
But the spread between Alberta and the national average is narrowing.

Calgary (and Edmonton) housing sector prices are under pressure:
http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

In Calgary:
Res-Listings down 59% from JUN 2010 high
Res-Sales down 74% from MAY 2013 high
Current Monthly Absorption Rate = 22%
Current Months of Inventory = 5

Calgary SF Detached Price
Down 9.0% from MAY 2017 peak
Up 15% in last 10 years

Calgary Town House Price
Down 9.7% from MAR 2018 peak
T-Houses are priced at 74% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.4 Townhouses

Calgary Condo Price
Down 22.5% from JUN 2014 peak
Condos are priced at 52% of SFDs
or 1 SFD = 1.9 Condos

Calgary Condo Prices are down 22.5% from JUN 2014 peak and are priced at DEC 2005 levels

The ratio of listings to sales in #Calgary is 4.6 compared to #Vancouver at 4.3 and #Toronto at only 1.2 (Toronto FOMO is back on the boil).

#20 Camille on 03.08.20 at 4:26 pm

The 7 plagues. Hahaha. Thank you for lightening this up. My job is to do nothing and see this through. I will do nothing…

#21 Linda on 03.08.20 at 4:29 pm

So, is there an ETF that has toilet paper futures in it? Must be soaring like an eagle what with the panic buying:)

#22 Yukon Elvis on 03.08.20 at 4:35 pm

Oh, this IS rich! Now, suddenly, Chinese money flows are affecting West coast North America real estate?

Just one factor, as mentioned. Foreign buyer levels have been pegged repeatedly at about 5%. – Garth
…………………..

Yah. Like the 2% inflation rate.

#23 BillyBob on 03.08.20 at 4:45 pm

#10 Stan Brooks on 03.08.20 at 3:49 pm
You need a lot of toilet paper to cleanup the credit mess.

You can not fight major disruption in global supply with monetary policies.

We are in the begging of a major health scare and many major city will be quarantined. To say that there will be no Canadian city among those is hubris. Ignorance is something that we are very familiar with.

This is not a bad flu.

Coronavirus expert: ‘War is an appropriate analogy’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcJDpV-igjs&feature=youtu.be

CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations Dr Richard Hatchett explains the long-term dangers of the Covid-19 coronavirus – saying it’s the scariest outbreak he’s dealt with in his 20-year career

The guy says this is equivalent to world war 2.

UK is not an alarmist state. Take it seriously.

====================================================

UK is absolutely an alarmist state. I live here. Do you?

The BBC, Guardian, Telegraph, et al are covered in sensationally alarmist headlines and stories many only minimally related to the virus. That’s before one even considers the tabloids. (Note: don’t.)

The UK is riddled with “nutters”, don’t kid yourself. Having a British accent doesn’t automatically make you smart even if North Americans think it does.

#24 Remembrancer on 03.08.20 at 4:45 pm

Relax all, the secondary market in TP has stepped in and is backstopping the primary supplier shortages, a free market at work…

Example: This toilet paper roll available with free shipping looks legit with branded debossing on each sheet…

https://www.ebay.ca/itm/Toilet-paper-roll-free-shipping-New/264659530261?hash=item3d9eeff215:g:LvEAAOSwpIVeZA9K

BTW, hey pickers and day traders, is it too late to grab KMB?

#25 Slim on 03.08.20 at 4:50 pm

Maybe the Corona virus is affecting people’s brains. Have scientists even considered that possibility? Kind of like the mad cow disease.

#26 Annek on 03.08.20 at 4:50 pm

Once upon a time, people used newspaper for toilet paper when they were poor.
I have lots of newspapers in my house.
Tell others that there are options.
LOL

#27 Annek on 03.08.20 at 4:55 pm

By the way, we are selling my dads bungalow who is deceased . Location in central west Toronto. Yesterday, we had 50 people go through the house.
Market here is crazy . Be interesting the offers.
Perhaps people want to get out of condos.
Like a floating cruise boat.
Covid-19?

#28 Stoner on 03.08.20 at 4:55 pm

For all you toilet paper hoarders, may I suggest a much older and ecologically friendly option?
https://www.amazon.com/Brondell-GS-70-Portable-Convenient-Capacity/dp/B008CSDKSQ/ref=pd_sbs_60_5/141-2161232-9888920?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=B008CSDKSQ&pd_rd_r=f9a5cc5e-69c5-42fb-9218-809f25fbeb0f&pd_rd_w=mXDRZ&pd_rd_wg=a9cfY&pf_rd_p=7cd8f929-4345-4bf2-a554-7d7588b3dd5f&pf_rd_r=BRXE6T5HNQ9AFK0MBBSA&psc=1&refRID=BRXE6T5HNQ9AFK0MBBSA

#29 not 1st on 03.08.20 at 4:56 pm

Will Justin still be head of the HMCS Titanic 2.0?

#30 The Real Mark on 03.08.20 at 4:57 pm

“Just one factor, as mentioned. Foreign buyer levels have been pegged repeatedly at about 5%. – Garth”

Not only that, but the ‘foreign buyers’ have been mostly identified as US citizens. As would ordinarily be expected for a country that shares a border, a significant chunk of our economies, similar regulatory standards across most industries, similar culture and ethnic makeup, etc.

The “Chinese with money” or “hot asian money” theories have been thoroughly disproven. Most influential in the GTA/GVR are the ‘landlord families’ — extended families who have been, over the past few decades, stuffing as many properties into their portfolios on credit/leverage/mortgages as possible. Not particularly caring about price when they add the 35th property to their existing portfolio of 34 properties.

#31 FreeBird on 03.08.20 at 4:58 pm

Live world map on Covid19

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

#32 COVFEFE-19 on 03.08.20 at 4:58 pm

“Go in for a coffee and walk out with a couple of rolls of paper gold.”

A minimum wage in the teens really puts a crimp in employing a babushka to dole out two squares to every punter. Maybe start up Squarebnb and make her an independent contractor? It’s easy to make money, because in that industry, 15=30.

https://www.ilo.org/dyn/media/mediasearch.fiche?p_id=8386&p_lang=en

#33 not 1st on 03.08.20 at 5:00 pm

If you have any of these channels in your house, CNN, CBC, CTV, MSNBC, go over and kick your screen in and then get yourself a dog (and some extra tp just in case).

#34 MF on 03.08.20 at 5:04 pm

Will people be buying houses in the next 6 weeks?

A big yes.

Easing the stress test was decided on months ago. It was a move to placate the real estate industry who were crying and weeping like a bunch of kids who lost their softball chapionship game.

The lobbying by the banks, insurance companies, realtors and every other shill factory must have been unbearable.

Covid19 was unforeseen. It was ignorantly neglected at first by world, but is now thankfully being taken more seriously. A lot of time has passed though, and containment is much harder.

As a result the Bank of Canada was able to reduce rates like they always wanted to, under the guise of the “helping” the economy. The .5% drop was too much. .25% or less would have been fine, but you have to remember they were under pressure from the same groups as well.

So,

We have a perfect storm. Big rate drops and stress test diddling at the same time. The state of the economy won’t matter because real estate because is only based on how much you can borrow and how easy you can borrow. Both of those factors have just become more lax.

Of course it’s the worst possible time for easier borrowing, and there will be severe repercussions much closer down the road then before, but people will buy. This aint 2003. I wish it was. 2003 we were in much better shape than we are now.

MF

#35 not 1st on 03.08.20 at 5:07 pm

Garth, china’s first quarantine move was to lock thousands of people in their concrete boxes in the sky to share recirculated air. You couldn’t give me one of those places. I would be looking for some bare land far away from the unwashed masses.

I have a hard time believing there is a super horny subset of people just dying to jump into this overinflated gas bag housing market just because of a 1% drop in rates. I mean anyone who sat on the sidelines watched these places go up by a couple hundred G in the past few yrs. A 1% cut isn’t going to make any difference in affordability.

#36 The Real Mark on 03.08.20 at 5:07 pm

“Oil in full collapse and gold should be peaking in the next 10 days or so and then start a 6-9 month collapse of 6-900 dollars
The concern is NOT equities or gold : oil. We should be putting in long term bottoms in commodities over the next few months with a bubble 2022-2024”

People like to own gold when they think that financial/fiat instruments are at elevated risk of default. Due to what can be described as ‘monetary instability’, whether inflationary or deflationary.

The central banks can’t meaningfully drive interest rates beneath zero, without causing cash to be hoarded. In effect, beneath zero, they have lost authority. So the risk of default across the entire spectrum of debt issuance is somewhat elevated. Arguably if rates on government debt are driven negative, that could, in and of itself, be viewed as a default as the buyers of any such “as issued” negative interest rate bonds would receive literally less principal at the end of the term than what was paid in.

So, unlike other commodities, which are very much correlated to industrial production, gold could do very well here. And gold mining, which relies on the spread between mining costs and gold prices being positive, would likely provide leveraged returns to owners. As inputs, such as oil, men, and machinery, are becoming cheaper by the day.

I just don’t see this disappearing/bottoming in a year or two. There’s little to no historic precedent for such, and there’s an awful lot of excess credit that has to be liquidated first. Even the toilet paper manufacturers, sure, they’ll have a good quarter or two running their factories full blast, but 6 months from now, who will be buying toilet paper when they already are well stocked up?

#37 SimplyPut7 on 03.08.20 at 5:07 pm

Goldman Sachs thinks oil could fall to $30 with a possible dip to $20.

Airbnb guests will avoid BC and ON this summer. Took years for the restaurant industry to recover after SARS in 2003.

First glut of speculative condos being completed as rent growth is flat in February.

Hoping for a vaccine in 18 months when it takes on average 5-10 years.

What’s that saying, when it rains it pours…

#38 TurnerNation on 03.08.20 at 5:14 pm

Oh yeah for all the Covid Cowboys wait till they begin suspending elections in various countries.
Then you’ll see what really this is about.
2020-21 utter chaos is planned.
Have I said to much…

#39 Wait There on 03.08.20 at 5:18 pm

When you go to work, you use the toilet paper supplied at the workplace washrooms. When you stay at home to work, you will end up using a lot more. So now you go to the store and stock up to take care of the extra consumption that will come in the future. Knowing that you will not want to go out unnecessarily, you might want to get some more. Now remember the same thing happens if kids do not go to school. That means you consumption can double. What happens when consumption doubles in a small period of time. The retailer takes a while to respond. This means for a period of time, the product will run out…..just when everyone just doubles their purchases.

Where did this toilet paper chase start? In Hong Kong. Judging by the number of cases AND proximity to Wuhan, I would say they are doing something right. I had expected their numbers to be much higher but we need to take some lessons here.

Now masks. The government is fooling people. We are now at the stage of community spreading where people will contract the virus without knowing where or from whom they possible got it from.

We NEED to slow down the infection and transmission rate. Why? If the virus is allowed to spread EVEN though it is not lethal to 80% of the infected, between 10 and 15% will experience a very bad flu and about 5% will need to be hospitalized.

Here’s why it is critical to slow down the infection. So that hospitals will not be overloaded by the 5% who get infected. Remember, if we do not have the facilities to care for the really bad cases, someone will have to make the call as to who dies. We are talking life and death here. NO ONE wants to make that call. Fatality rate rises is there is no care for the critical ones…the unlucky ones.

Now why EVERYONE should be wearing masks at this point….it FACTUALLY helps prevent some cases of infection. Every single case adds to the load of testing and care. The less people get infected the better AND it allows the hospitals to keep up with good care.

Masks are misunderstood. They are NOT primarily to protect yourself. They are best to prevent an INFECTED person from spreading to others. That means that people who are infected have a smaller likelihood of transmitting to someone else.

We are at that stage right now.

Why no masks? Because the countries producing them are keeping them for themselves at this time. This is an unexpected result of globalism and offshoring.

This being the case, the government must convince all of us that we don’t need them because they don’t work.

Whether you believe China’s number or not, masks were a key tool to control the spread in that country.

The government in NA has made the choice,….just let everyone get it, and then we move on..because we are UNABLE to contain it. That means that they have decided that some of the older and weaker are expendable.

Sad situation.

#40 Treasure Island CEO - 145,938,434.88 Offshore on 03.08.20 at 5:21 pm

The big problem right now is that Oil is going to crash on Monday because MbS just blew it up. He is going to flood the market.

OPEC deal collapse sparks price war: ‘$20 oil in 2020 is coming’

“Crude has become a bigger problem for markets than the coronavirus. It will be virtually impossible for the SPX to sustainably bounce if Brent continues to crater,” Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said Sunday.
Morgan Stanley forecasts Brent falling to $35 per barrel in the second quarter, with WTI trading as low as $30 per barrel. The firm’s prior forecast had Brent at $57.50 and WTI at $52.50.

Wow! This is the big market crash now happening.

And the Boomers running for the exits out of equities right now is going to sink the market way lower.

People, the biggest buying opportunity in markets is coming. We are 3-months out.

In terms of housing – show me the collapse in prices before I believe it. Job losses later this year will make that happen. Let’s see how deep this goes.

#41 the Jaguar on 03.08.20 at 5:24 pm

All hell has done broke loose, but Jaguar will go out on a limb and predict that steely calm, industriousness and the ingenuity of Canadians just might play a major role in overcoming the crisis. We invented Insulin, after all. The panic, hand wringing, and hoarding needs to be replaced by common sense, preventative health and hygiene measures as advised by health care professionals and your mom, and by putting some faith in our health care system and professionals. We are blessed with some very talented medical scientists and researchers, and we have a history of rising to greatness in the face of crisis.
In 2001 an American doctor was dying in Antarctica. The bottom of the world. The american military and their Hercules aircraft were unable to assist. Against incredible odds a small crew of brave Canadians ( Kenn Borek Air, a Calgary company) flew in at tremendous personal risk in a humble Twin Otter Bush Plane and airlifted the doctor to safety and life saving medical attention. We have a way of rising to greatness in the face of crisis. Pass the single malt

#42 Sold Out on 03.08.20 at 5:25 pm

I do wonder how much of the general hysteria level, and predictions of imminent doom, are products of wishing ill on our current government.

Conservative political beliefs are closely associated with higher anxiety levels, and a greater need for order and regimentation.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/calling-truce-political-wars/

Just because you are anxious, it doesn’t mean you’re in any great danger. It might just be your large amygdala.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/the-human-beast/201104/conservatives-big-fear-brain-study-finds

Risk assessment should not be an emotionally driven process. Making life-altering decisions based on a faulty understanding of the risk-benefit analysis should be more worrying than a largely non-lethal virus.

We can only presume that our intrepid host is more red than blue.

#43 The Forecaster on 03.08.20 at 5:27 pm

The collapse in bond yields seen last week is a dress rehearsal for what is coming.

Zerobound. Mark my words.

#44 Bucky on 03.08.20 at 5:35 pm

The 2009 economic crisis happened when people could not get financing to buy when the credit market froze up. Lots of cheap money out there today, but will people stop buying because they are afraid? Or disruptions in supply chains, no customers walking into small businesses, or factory closures the danger now? Have to wait and see. In real terms, seems like this should be over in a few months, want to be prepared to ignore the hype and doomers until then.

#45 MF on 03.08.20 at 5:37 pm

#33 not 1st on 03.08.20 at 5:07

Believe it buddy.

Daily messages on my Facebook from realtors talking about how much money Someone made. Everyone who leveraged up with debt has been rewarded by our “system”. Many people with 4 houses, each room rented out. Everyone is a superstar.

This is what we are up against.

It will continue longer as the can is kicked further down the road but an inevitable collapse has been assured thanks to recent events.

MF

#46 Howard on 03.08.20 at 5:40 pm

#9 SOMETHINGS UP on 03.08.20 at 3:49 pm
If some say the VIRUS isn’t a big deal then WHY are the governments, scientists, doctors, and the media making it one?

Heart attacks and the flu kill thousands more every year – corona doesn’t apparently.

So then whats on big brothers’ agenda?

What are they trying to accomplish?

What is up?

Somethings up?

—————————–

Sigh.

I can’t believe this still needs to be explained.

Heart attacks are not contagious.

The mortality rate of the flu is 0.2%.

The mortality rate of coronavirus is 3.4% by current estimates.

#47 War Room Pandemic on 03.08.20 at 5:45 pm

Here is your host Steven K Bannon.

Open line: hey, what do you think of that B.C. Provincial Health Officer heading the the BC media pressers?

And Garth wonders why people are buy TP?

#48 Reality is stark on 03.08.20 at 5:51 pm

At U of T we used to have a saying that
TP and a York diploma had similar value.
Now it seems that the value of TP is skyrocketing.
This may be the time to apply to York.

#49 Apocalypse2020 on 03.08.20 at 5:51 pm

Glad to see I am no longer a solitary voice.

PREPARE

#50 Have relative in AB on 03.08.20 at 5:52 pm

The Alberta house appraisal just came in another 50k down from 6 months ago.

Now appraised at 30k less than what I paid for it in 2003.

For sale for 9 months. Realtor say be prepared to wait up to 2 years for a sale.

2 showings in the past8 months and the last showing a month ago said it was priced too aggressively at 290k. North of Edmonton in oil country. Lower oil sounds exciting for my prospects. Wheeeeeeeewwwwww!

MadTV lowered expectations. You listening Canada?

#51 Howard on 03.08.20 at 5:56 pm

#12 Debtslavecreator on 03.08.20 at 4:04 pm
Strong support is DOW 20-22 k. We should be there by end of March. Long term should be ok
Oil in full collapse and gold should be peaking in the next 10 days or so and then start a 6-9 month collapse of 6-900 dollars
The concern is NOT equities or gold : oil. We should be putting in long term bottoms in commodities over the next few months with a bubble 2022-2024

———————————

Predicting $800-1100 gold within 9 months in the current global economic is as silly as prediction $5000.

I agree though that gold will put in a cyclical top in the next couple weeks before dropping to around $1450. That will be the buy of a lifetime. Listen to Ray Dalio.

#52 All in on 03.08.20 at 5:58 pm

Everything is going to take a hit.

Housing eventually. But the gov. have a national priority to stabilize housing.

If housing goes, Canada is in the dark ages.

The agenda will not change. Fake money printing, cranes putting up luxury housing unabated will continue.

Savers are the ones who need to GTFO now. The term savers as of right now doesn’t even exist.

Hold your positions and look for buying opportunities in housing, financial markets, everything.

These turbulent times are when sound decisions pays big. This is money!

#53 Tony on 03.08.20 at 5:59 pm

Re: #9 SOMETHINGS UP on 03.08.20 at 3:49 pm

Interest rate cuts have about a 6 to 8 month lag before they kick in. The election in America is this November. Sounds like more than just a coincidence to me. I swear if anyone else was the president interest rates wouldn’t be falling right now.

#54 CEW9 on 03.08.20 at 5:59 pm

Based on the higher mortality rates for the elderly, around 8% for aged 70-79 and 15% for 80-89, what affect will this have on governments?

Thinking mainly of the primaries down south. Lots of wrinklies in those parties.

If a leading candidate falls ill, what does that do to the 2020 election?

#55 condopoor on 03.08.20 at 6:00 pm

Great post, Garth.

#56 Tony on 03.08.20 at 6:05 pm

Re: #39 Treasure Island CEO – 145,938,434.88 Offshore

Stocks might be cheap in Russia but are extremely expensive virtually everywhere else in the world.

#57 Steve Saretsky on 03.08.20 at 6:15 pm

Demand For “Zombie Apocalypse” Bunkers Soars Six Fold in Vancouver.

I am working on a price index for this and going live on BNN with Greg Bonnell to discuss this newest trend in housing.

#58 What’s the next panic buying item on 03.08.20 at 6:26 pm

Cannot find my toilet paper posts must have been eliminated. No worries I thought they were funny.

So let’s see what the Heard will buy next according to survivalist you should own matches and a gun.

My bet is for matches wooden ones and then waterproof ones
Now for my daily joke
They need matches to burn all the toilet paper to keep warm

#59 crazyfox on 03.08.20 at 6:29 pm

#10 Stan Brooks on 03.08.20 at 3:49 pm

Richard Hatchett offers a realistic opinion. 50 to 70% of the global population… he doesn’t offer timelines for this and its difficult to predict how nations will react to the rate of infection over longer timelines (say 5 years) which he points out. Richard thinks the CFR will be greater than 1% (what have I said in the past, 1 to 4%, I still think it’s going to be around 4% globally if I had to speculate). Richard also believes the attack rate will be 3x faster than the flu. I guess you could arrive at that conclusion if you compare the rate of transmission and the flu as the same with the key difference being human immune systems haven’t seen COVID-19 before… but I highly doubt that.

if one is to do flu COVID-19 comparisons, I think the question we should be asking is, could China get rid of the flu virus without a vaccine with the same methods they’ve used against Corona? Lets recall, China was mocked for trying to stop the spread of this virus comparing their efforts to trying to stop the flu. Is this in fact what China has nearly done?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_disease

COVID-19 could be a very close match to flu virus’s in how these virus’s are spread or a rate of transmission in a virgin population with no previous immunity. Lets keep in mind there are major variables of aerosol spread. Some virus’s will spread for 10’s of thousands of km’s while others will spread for 6 or 7 feet. For flu/corona virus comparison, cell entry for both is in the lungs, they are enclosed positive sense RNA, similar in virus size, spread through contact, droplet… its the question of aerosol spread. How limited is it with COVID-19 and influenza, is it similar?

But I wander. It’s an excellent interview and worth the watch perhaps because Richard has answered some hard questions with most conclusions the same as my own. The nuts and bolts of it comes down to CFR and attack rate which will vary from nation to nation but globally, the CFR is a number most don’t want to predict other than the WHO that has to and they are coming up with 3.4% so yeah… its a stark contrast to, say, what Trump is saying:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ruGsGNwNMk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTjTaR748eg

If one listens to Trump and believes him, “Oh, my nose is going to run from another flu, better get butt fluff”. What other conclusion can one draw to explain the run on TP? FOX news viewer perhaps?

#60 paul on 03.08.20 at 6:30 pm

Well just came back from Florida plane full going down full coming back the only person even talking about the Virus was our host. She hopes her business doesn’t shrink.
Beaches,Restaurants, Bars, Busy $20 bucks to park if you can find a spot.

#61 That place looks like ... on 03.08.20 at 6:31 pm

#5 TurnerNation on 03.08.20 at 3:35 pm
Example property in a region, Sudbury
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20582645/2865-kingsway-sudbury
——————————————
it belongs in Lac LaHache BC. Maybe replace the Twilight. Had a few good times in there …

#62 akashic record on 03.08.20 at 6:31 pm

The burning question is (of course), whether toilet paper hoarding is fundamentally different instinct from money hoarding aka portfolio.

Second burning question, which has more devastating overall consequences to environment, health?

Recommended literature: Charles Eisenstein The Sacred Economics

For the reading challenged there is always YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK-ohudWUl8

#63 WUL on 03.08.20 at 6:37 pm

Yup. Fort Mac stores out of TP. I haven’t checked the ammo stores. Got some on order from Calgary.

Lunacy and full on stupid.

My Mama raised 5 with cloth diapers. Laundry twice a day. Easy peasy.

A warm wet wash cloth. Comfort city.

And bonus. I still have the diaper bucket the Missus and I used 22 years ago. Laughing is I.

#64 Yukon Elvis on 03.08.20 at 6:43 pm

First, why in Dog’s name are folks storming supermarkets and Costcos, fighting over Cottonelle? How is that supposed to prepare you for a pandemic of snotty neighbours and wheezy co-workers? If you end up being quarantined what, exactly, will you do with a hundred rolls of tissue?
…………………………..

Checked it out this afternoon in Kelowna. The stuff is on sale for half price. Seriously. May as well stock up. Not like it’s gonna go bad on ya.

#65 leebow on 03.08.20 at 6:48 pm

Pre-market is amazing S&P -4.4% so far. WTI down 20%. Love that feeling when efforts pay off.

#66 Albertapocalypse 2020 to forever on 03.08.20 at 6:52 pm

Well this ought to help things out….

https://calgaryherald.com/pmn/business-pmn/saudis-plan-big-oil-output-hike-beginning-all-out-price-war/wcm/bd8fdaf5-6f48-4a5a-b00e-3559f29627a3

#67 akashic record on 03.08.20 at 6:52 pm

#26 Annek on 03.08.20 at 4:50 pm
Once upon a time, people used newspaper for toilet paper when they were poor.
I have lots of newspapers in my house.
Tell others that there are options.

Let’s hope you read woke newspapers that use vegetable-based ink, not the traditional one, with lead.

#68 Rowdie on 03.08.20 at 6:55 pm

Hi Garth:

Is there an ETF for toilet paper?

#69 conan on 03.08.20 at 6:59 pm

The world might be going to Hell in a hand basket but no one is denying my derriere Charmin Ultra Soft.
No one…..
Wars have started for less.

#70 crazyfox on 03.08.20 at 7:06 pm

I wasn’t sure if I was looking at a dummy website at first:

https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

If these numbers accelerate, it’ll be a brutal Monday. Market’s down 4%? Oil @ $32.40? Ouch!

#71 45north on 03.08.20 at 7:06 pm

First, why are folks storming supermarkets and Costcos, fighting over Cottonelle?

isopropyl alcohol is a disinfectant, it would kill Covid-19

it was sold out at Walmart and Loblaws in South Keys, Ottawa, yesterday

#72 spoon_man on 03.08.20 at 7:08 pm

economically speaking this virus has proven to be a very practical exercise on what the world is to look like when trade gets halted/interrupted. to those looking to impose heavy regulation, more trade barriers, the building of more walls, further populist solutions, etc I hope by now you managed to realize how the coronavirus has given you the unique opportunity of looking into the future should those policies were to kick in successfully. like it or not, we live in a very connected world and disruption to long-established trade avenues (people mobility included here) is the true “virus” we all should be scared of. the implementation of the aforementioned policies would be a truly loose-loose scenario in the big scheme of things. disrupting trade is not going to solve wealth inequality. meritocracy, pragmatism and honesty/transparency at the society level are better weapons to start addressing many of the modern social problems we face today.

#73 Jim on 03.08.20 at 7:08 pm

OMG! Oil prices are tumbling!
https://oilprice.com

The lying consultant told me to invest in CGX energy shares because the company predicts that their oil blocks down in Guineya contain over 100 billion barrels of light, 0.1% low sulfur and extremely sweet crude oil.

#74 under the radar on 03.08.20 at 7:10 pm

Oil price wars, Aramco cuts price most in 20 years Goldman says $30 crude.

#75 Fiddler Don on 03.08.20 at 7:18 pm

Pulled out the fiddle……. yeah baby ride this sucker.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1236778368533700609

#76 Howard on 03.08.20 at 7:20 pm

Italy just announced a quarantine of 1/4 of its population. Still think this is nothing?

I hope Dolce Vita is going okay…

#77 Eco Capitalist on 03.08.20 at 7:20 pm

I haven’t had a really good falafel in ages. Never would have guessed that I have to go to a mortgage broker to find one!

#78 DON on 03.08.20 at 7:21 pm

All these interwoven and independent variables and the resulting cascading effects.

Was our economic system (truly) healthy before the virus? Can you beat the virus? If you are in good health your chances are better, if not assured (currently seems that way). Can our domestic and global financial systems beat the virus? Will further monetary and/or fiscal stimulus inject confidence? Will this affect the credit market?

Will have to patiently wait and see.

Looks like oil just went south into 30’s. Why did Russia say no to the deal…other things at play? Do the Saudi’s need higher oil prices than the Russians? Russia just boasted 2.? percent inflation and has been actively diversifying the economy.

Some analysts were predicting lower prices at the pump (we’ll see), if that happens you know the SHTF!

Virus stats out of China.(?)

#79 Arto on 03.08.20 at 7:22 pm

#88 Arto on 02.02.20 at 8:49 pm
Can’t believe today’s post talks about such mundane subject as TFSA and RRSP while there is a global pandemic on the loose. Here are four reasons we are heading for a SEVERE correction.

1) We are at all-time highs led by irrational exuberance
2) With all the money printing, the curve justinverted again
3) Coronavirus
4) And last but not least, no one is talking about Bernie winning Iowa. Wall street will just about pee in their pants tomorrow night.

Worry about what you can control. The rest is noise. – Garth

#80 aerozone on 03.08.20 at 7:23 pm

I’ve heard the Lagavulin makes a terrific disinfectant.
The Islayers have been using it for years.

#81 TurnerNation on 03.08.20 at 7:33 pm

Blog dog update on TP. My local downtown GTA grocer has a 30 foot long and empty hole – where TP was.
Bottled water almost gone.

#82 People Panic on 03.08.20 at 7:49 pm

Folks, here is what to do if you cannot buy your 8 bags of toilet paper because the Costco is sold out, but you still need to wipe your bum: Think old school.

Back when my daughters were little my wife-at-the-time was opposed to disposable diapers (not sure why) so she used cloth. You can make yourself an environmentally friendly (well I am not sure about that) alternative to toilet paper based on the same principles. What you need:

– A bucket with a lid
– Laundry prewash stain remover
– A pack of microfiber shop towels (not paper) or some other small cloth towels

Instructions:

– Put some water and some stain remover in the bucket
– Wipe bum with towels
– Put towels in bucket to soak
– When bucket is full, wash towels

And there you have it. Washing them is kind of gross which is why my wife-at-the-time had a diaper service, but the principle is the same. Endless bum wiping no wasteful toilet paper stockpiles. And you can get all these things at Home Depot where the mad rush hasn’t yet occurred. Or if you are like me you already have these things.

This gets me thinking: Will Trudeau move to ban disposable diapers along with plastic straws? What about K-cups? Condoms? Nitrile gloves? Garbage bags? Que-tips? Toothpaste tubes? The little plastic bottles your prescriptions come in? I know he is after water bottles in favor of “paper water drinking box type things” but who knows where he will stop. Maybe stock up on paper water drinking boxes if you can find them. Even though those don’t biodegrade once they are buried in the landfill either, along with the disposable diapers.

#83 WUL on 03.08.20 at 7:56 pm

With each budget, Alberta’s government tries to fool the populace that it will balance the budget. They do that by predicting unrealistic oil prices. And, Albertans buy this nonsense. Opens at what tomorrow? $30?

Each dollar drop in WTI prices means a few hundred million dollars to gov’t coffers over a year. The UCP used $58 bucks per barrel (Teck used $95 average to 2050 for its boneheaded application for the Frontier Oil Sands mine – Over the last 80 years it has been an average of about $65 real dollars if memory serves).

Wishful thinking and deceitful politics but Premier Kenney is not alone in this type of caper.

Kenney needs a new budget in the next 30 days and far more austerity with a capital A.

Poor us.

#84 not 1st on 03.08.20 at 7:58 pm

Dow up 650pts in the last hr of trading on Friday. Did the plunge protection plumbers come in to the market? Didn’t work because futures showing a hard down for Monday am.

Repo market active again last week, $100B overnight action every night. A trillion went through before xmas. Still no reason for that and it was months before the virus. There was already a glitch in the system before this virus.

Suspect a bailout for select industries like airlines is being teed up behind the scenes. Maybe even a bank recap is next.

#85 Drinking on 03.08.20 at 7:59 pm

#38 Wait There

Great post but you forgot the gloves.

Those who are bashing the toilet paper hoarders; any of you with wives or daughters that have experienced a moment of running out of toilet paper know why men in particular are buying extra; the drama is unprecedented well worth the peace of mind! :)

By the end of May, according to compounding number calculations; the U.S. will be in full Sars 2 mode; it will be interesting on how they react to it; for those who take this lightly, well, then so be it!

#86 Nonplused on 03.08.20 at 8:01 pm

“Fifty bottles of single malt, I can understand. But this?”

A man after my own heart. And it doesn’t go bad it just gets better. Also you earn 2% on it (inflation) but don’t have to pay taxes. Much better than money in the bank at this point. And if you are going to die, you may as well die happy.

#87 Cto on 03.08.20 at 8:08 pm

No 9, somethings up

“If some say the VIRUS isn’t a big deal then WHY are the governments, scientists, doctors, and the media making it one?

I thought about this too.

I think someone wants interest rates to go back down…. and this is a great way to make it happen. No war, no recession, just a great excuse for CBs to make and illogical move in rates seem logical.
Let’s see, who would like rates to drop…
All governments including Trump and Trudeau,
All corporate heads who have bought share by backs….,
The financial Elite including central bank chairman from all states.
And the list can go on….

So, could this be as far fetched as buying store loads ot toilet paper? Let me know…

#88 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 8:08 pm

#75 Howard on 03.08.20 at 7:20 pm

Italy just announced a quarantine of 1/4 of its population. Still think this is nothing?

I hope Dolce Vita is going okay…

————————

Of course he’ll be okay. Panic does not mean danger exists. Two entirely separate things.

#89 KAC on 03.08.20 at 8:09 pm

“ Just one factor, as mentioned. Foreign buyer levels have been pegged repeatedly at about 5%. – Garth”

There are zero Chinese buyers in the Okanagan, they’ve all been scared off by the Kelowna vilus.

#90 leebow on 03.08.20 at 8:10 pm

The orange clown posted his picture pressing a piece of TP against his cheek with a violin. What a weirdo.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump

Nothing can stop what’s coming… Double up or use the cardboard backing, you orange idiot.

Why did he have to lie about this one thing that nobody was blaming him for? Couldn’t he just say something standard along the lines “we do not have complete information but our best scientists are working on this”?

That would give SOME confidence that the situation is handled properly. The markets are not pricing in excesses or bubbles. The markets are pricing in a wacko, a loose madman in charge.

#91 Howard on 03.08.20 at 8:12 pm

It’s a good thing Canada has a first rate intellect like Justin Trudeau to lead it during a period of pandemic and likely global recession! Thank you Ontario women for forcing this gem onto the rest of us.

#92 Daylight Savings Time on 03.08.20 at 8:16 pm

Ugh. Why do we do this silly thing anymore? We should settle on one time or the other.

Originally the idea was that DST would save energy because people wouldn’t need to turn their lights on so early. But in the days of LED everywhere is that necessary? And do the streetlights, which operate on light sensors, really do anything differently than they otherwise would?

“Oh well it gives longer evenings in the summer” people say. Ok, let’s stay on DST all year then because the sun doesn’t shine in the winter anyway. At least not in Canada. You go to work in the dark, you come home in the dark, and for the few hours the sun is up you are in your office/shop/warehouse/salt mine. What difference does it make what time it is? It is drudgery in the dark all winter long regardless.

I think Saskatchewan has it right. Since the cows can’t read clocks, they don’t bother. The farmer has to milk at the same time (unadjusted) anyway. I believe they have settled on DST all year long.

#93 Ed McNeil on 03.08.20 at 8:20 pm

Regarding the TP hoarding: To quote a bit of doggerel from my long ago youth; “In days old when knights were good, Before toilet paper was invented, You pulled up grass to wipe your a.. ,And walked away contented.”

#94 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 8:22 pm

Crazyfox, Donald J Trump did not create coronavirus, or the hoarding disorder.

Although, much like my dog’s interpretation of the spoken word, you may well read the words “Trump, create, coronavirus” in my post and run with it.

Want to go for a walk to your bed and go to sleep? Do you? Do you? A walk, buddy?

#95 Ak on 03.08.20 at 8:23 pm

Garth, why do you believe Canada has little chance of having any of its cities quarantined?

Not that I wish it to happen, but though it is probabilistically low, now more than ever it is relatively extremely high vs the norm. The weather, the high chinese population (with many who often travel or entertain visitors from Asia), the closeness to Seattle (of Vancouver) where there likely are much more people with Coronavirus than what we have seen so far.

Also,as someone else also commented already. You used to always write off the foreign buyers and said they made insignificant contribution to the housing market and it was local people who fueled the speculative pricing. Even as others argued with you that many of these “local buyers” had ties to Asia money and how these foreign buyers fueled prices, you pushed back (on many many many posts) that stats and whatever else you used to reason showed foreign buyer contribution as small (your 5% number) and so was not significant. Now you are suggesting that housing markets may or may not be as frothy given the potential absence of foreign buyers. If all else being equal (yes, dismissing the Coronavirus backdrop for a moment), according to your previous take, local Canadian buyers should be goosed by the low interest environment and buy buy buy.

Btw, I am not saying I believe in one over the other, it just seems a bit contradictory on your side.

#96 Steven Rowlandson on 03.08.20 at 8:24 pm

This is minutes old from BNN.

wti $32.35
wcs discount $13.35
Canada – Alberta gets $19.00 a barrel for wcs crude

If this sort of pricing sticks or goes lower it can’t be good for the oil industry and may be not the real estate market either. It takes some pretty hefty incomes and profits to support the price of homes and if the money dries up and confidence goes poof watch out below.

#97 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 8:24 pm

#89 KAC on 03.08.20 at 8:09 pm
“ Just one factor, as mentioned. Foreign buyer levels have been pegged repeatedly at about 5%. – Garth”

There are zero Chinese buyers in the Okanagan, they’ve all been scared off by the Kelowna vilus.

———————-

That’s good.

#98 nutty squirrel on 03.08.20 at 8:26 pm

Mortgage question

If I was refinancing a mortgage in April – what would one do?

Lock in a 5 yr fixed rate now?
Go with a 5 yr variable?
Go with an open mortgage – lock in when rates drop again?
Use a line of credit until rates drop again

Also what is the cheapest 5 yr fixed people have heard being offered by one of the big banks.

thanks in advance

#99 Nonplused on 03.08.20 at 8:31 pm

#82 WUL on 03.08.20 at 7:56 pm

“Opens at what tomorrow? $30?”

This will get worse before it gets better. Putin is really angry about the sanctions on Nord Stream 2 that forced his contractor to drop the pipe in the middle of the ocean. So I am doing a little mind reading here, which is always dangerous, but I am guessing he intends to use the demand destruction caused by Covid to drive oil prices to $20 (his break even) for as long as he can and hand the US shale industry bankruptcy on a platter.

He also has a bone to pick with Saudi Arabia, who collaborated with the US to drive the Soviet Union bankrupt via oil pricing way back in the 90’s.

Karma is a bitch.

How do I know (well, suspect though careful mind reading) this? He pulled out of OPEC+ and said Russia will not cut production. That leaves it pretty much to Saudi Arabia to make all the necessary cuts. But their budget is a mess so they really can’t. If they do, well Russia enjoys that much more income. So who is going to go belly up first? US shale. Much higher break-evens than either Russia or Saudi Arabia. They were dying on the vine already and this will just put the bodies on the cart.

#100 GRG on 03.08.20 at 8:35 pm

MSB is the title today. But seems MBS is stealing all the headlines…

#101 Captain Uppa on 03.08.20 at 8:36 pm

Just one factor, as mentioned. Foreign buyer levels have been pegged repeatedly at about 5%. – Garth

——————————

Perhaps, but you made a strong point of Chinese buying being a non-factor, whereas now it seems to be something worth noting.

Sorry, but this is as bias as the RE agents you abhor, just on the other side of the toilet paper wall.

The blog has been consistent. Offshore guys 5% or so – until they vanished. As stated, just a single factor, but not the one that sets prices. We do that. – Garth

#102 Captain Uppa on 03.08.20 at 8:38 pm

I can’t wait for Covid-19 to be listed as just another seasonal flu.

The stupidity displayed by humanity right now is mind boggling.

I am not looking forward to hearing the newest conspiracy theories at work come tomorrow morning.

#103 The other Lebowski on 03.08.20 at 8:39 pm

S&P futures are lock limit down. Looks like the market beatings will continue until morale improves.

#104 Niagara Region on 03.08.20 at 8:41 pm

TVO documentary “Push: The Housing Gap” on the rise of a new kind of faceless landlord, increasingly unliveable cities, and an escalating housing crisis globally:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWSVG9nsRa4&feature=share

#105 AK on 03.08.20 at 8:41 pm

I was at my local Freshco yesterday and they had tons of toilet paper (Cashmere, not the no name crap) in stock, for $4.99 (50%) off. Just saw a few people picking it up.

#106 Captain Uppa on 03.08.20 at 8:45 pm

The blog has been consistent. Offshore guys 5% or so – until they vanished. As stated, just a single factor, but not the one that sets prices. We do that. – Garth
—————

Fair enough.

I forgot to tell you that my 60/40 balanced portfolio is holding up really, REALLY well! This market slaughter is not even making we blink.

#107 Nonplused on 03.08.20 at 8:52 pm

#16 I’m stupid on 03.08.20 at 4:15 pm

“Looks like I’m going to raid the local Tim Hortons if I need toilet paper. Go in for a coffee and walk out with a couple of rolls of paper gold.”

Unsurprisingly, this has already started to happen. Public toilet paper dispensers often have a little key thingy on them to get them open because theft of anything not nailed down has always been a problem, but people be breaking them now.

#108 NoName on 03.08.20 at 9:15 pm

#105 AK on 03.08.20 at 8:41 pm

I was at my local Freshco yesterday and they had tons of toilet paper (Cashmere, not the no name crap) in stock, for $4.99 (50%) off. Just saw a few people picking it up.

wow buddy, slow down a bit.

I am now definitely, 100 percent sure that you dont know what are you talking about. Cashmere, shaking my head in disbelief.

#109 Barb on 03.08.20 at 9:25 pm

Just returned from a long-planned week in WA state.

The C-19 news is everywhere, all day long, radio/tv, UofW going to online only. Numerous interviews with small businesspeople asking customers to NOT stay away.

One thing occurs to me: If many businesses are hinting at going broke–after only two weeks of the virus being detected locally–weren’t they on the edge all along?

#110 Deplorable Dude on 03.08.20 at 9:32 pm

#46 Howard “ The mortality rate of coronavirus is 3.4% by current estimates.”

Completely meaningless number. Different countries are doing different levels of testing. Unless you have a known solid baseline for # infected it’s guesswork. Take S.Korea..tested the most people….death rate is 0.68%.

The worrying issue in my mind is when do we start to see the health care system become completely overwhelmed.

There’s a pretty terrifying widely shared thread on Twitter from a Phd Biologist @LizSpecht who ran the numbers.

She’s calculated every hospital bed in the US will be filled with acute cases by about 8th May, with 4 million infected overall. Based on current growth estimates and Italy’s numbers.

#111 crazyfox on 03.08.20 at 9:33 pm

#94 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 8:22 pm

It was a joke! (Can’t help but think FOX viewers are that gullible though) You need to lighten up, SA. Trying to run people down with inside jokes only a crack addled mind could understand, its petty & dumb and what’s with the nod towards anti Chinese sentiment, you’ve got nothing better to do with your life? Your ego bloat is a bore.

#112 Flop... on 03.08.20 at 9:34 pm

Used to enjoy watching Anthony Bourdain on Travel Network and then on CNN.

About the only thing I used to watch on there.

He’s gone, obviously.

Andrew Zimmern has got a similar type of series going on MSNBC that mixes food with most thing Americans have to deal with.

Currently watching a good one on voter suppression.

Check it out next week if interested.

Next weeks topic looks like it’s food in America and its impact on the health care system.

Channel 94 in Flopland.

What’s Eating America…

M45BC

#113 WUL on 03.08.20 at 9:40 pm

#99 Nonplused on 03.08.20 at 8:31 pm

“So who is going to go belly up first? US shale. Much higher break-evens than either Russia or Saudi Arabia. They were dying on the vine already and this will just put the bodies on the cart.”

the frackers…the frackers…the frackers

As usual, in my mind, your analysis is sound. Frackers burn cash on a treadmill. Cash raised via junk bonds for very high decline rate wells.

Oh, the halcyon days of Leduc #1.

Mo’ probs in the Permian and the Williston basin.

Cheers NP,

WUL

#114 not 1st on 03.08.20 at 9:43 pm

Canada – Alberta gets $19.00 a barrel for wcs crude
—–

Had our govt actually supported our patch, one of those pipelines (EE, NG, KXL or TMX) would be at the coast by now and cutting into that differential and a oil war would have had much less impact. But here we are.

Canadians, especially those cluelessly woke, are about to get a hard less on how our countries wealth and standard of living is generated.

Hint, it aint Starbucks and the raptors.

Elections have consequences. So does willful ignorance.

#115 Stone on 03.08.20 at 9:46 pm

#106 Captain Uppa on 03.08.20 at 8:45 pm
The blog has been consistent. Offshore guys 5% or so – until they vanished. As stated, just a single factor, but not the one that sets prices. We do that. – Garth
—————

Fair enough.

I forgot to tell you that my 60/40 balanced portfolio is holding up really, REALLY well! This market slaughter is not even making we blink.

———

I’m curious how everyone’s balanced and diversified portfolios are doing. As of last Friday, I was at -1.45% including all distributions (dividends, interest payments, etc.).

How’s everyone else holding up?

#116 Drinking on 03.08.20 at 10:05 pm

#99 Nonplused

Alberta will go belly up! I guess those F.N. and paid protester (that do nothing but suppress the F.N community) morons that blocked critical lines (and for what??) will soon discover harder times. Perhaps Alberta will finally receive a cheque from Quebec! Karma is a b*tch!

#117 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.08.20 at 10:12 pm

Plenty of toilet paper remaining at the grocery stores here in St. Cesaire, Quebec. I don’t believe that the panic buying is wide spread (if it’s happening at all), but if it was true that such items could end up in short supply it would be wise to make sure that you had some, killer virus or not. It’s always wise to have supplies. Now I see the media trying to make preppers look like criminals.
A government and media that actually cared would say: THANK GOD SOME OF THEM PREPPED, now all we have to do is take care of the idiots!
What is their motive for bashing preppers, really?
Here is what will happen if they manage to confiscate your preps: If ‘they’ have enough for themselves, they will declare your preps “unfit for consumption” and they will destroy them, they will not go to needy people as they are claiming they will. “Getting everyone through this” will not be anywhere on their list of intentions when they rob you.

#118 Kothar on 03.08.20 at 10:13 pm

Oil has cratered! BoC dropping rates to 0! AB is toast in their budget! Trudeau deficit this yr will be $60 billion and CAD craters to 57 cents USD.

#119 T PT2 on 03.08.20 at 10:21 pm

Aww yes.

Trading curbs in effect.

Down limit.

The millenials will need to google what that means.

#120 Albertapocalypse 2020 to forever on 03.08.20 at 10:38 pm

Damn, I should have invested those Ralph bucks!

Anyone want to buy my house?

#121 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 10:40 pm

Sorry Crazy, I read it literally.

Also, no anti Chinese sentiment here. I thought the ‘Kelowna virus’ was a good play on words. Should have clarified.

#122 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 10:50 pm

#109 Barb on 03.08.20 at 9:25 pm

One thing occurs to me: If many businesses are hinting at going broke–after only two weeks of the virus being detected locally–weren’t they on the edge all along?

———————–

Not at all the case! Money is oxygen to business. If you have employees, payroll needs to be met regardless- if not from operations, then from the owner’s pocket or debt. Companies don’t stockpile money beyond a couple of payrolls. So 2 weeks of weak or zero revenue… big issue.

This is why CN Rail cut 3000 jobs after 2 weeks of interrupted operations.

Only the government can keep unproductive workers forever.

#123 Emergency preparenes on 03.08.20 at 10:51 pm

You should always be prepared for an emergency. Earthquakes, power outage for a month. Now that’s real,survival.
Two weeks quarantine, do you have two weeks of food?

Let’s recap and rinse.
BC 27 cases and 19 went home cured. 1 lady of 80 in critical condition, but if she got the flu she would be in critical condition so 7 new cases.
Is that really something to worry about.
Italy is confusing as it was one guy and now thousands are affected? Something does not add up.

Passing the blame to ……Garth …. as he always said you can eat squirrel in an emergency. And guess what Garth you are the cause of the panic in Toilet paper all these people eating squirrels meat, gives me the shivers what comes out the other end.

#124 SW on 03.08.20 at 10:51 pm

#91 Howard on 03.08.20 at 8:12 pm
“It’s a good thing Canada has a first rate intellect like Justin Trudeau to lead it during a period of pandemic and likely global recession! Thank you Ontario women for forcing this gem onto the rest of us.”

Oh Howard, you’re so welcome! He’s really dreamy isn’t he?

That’s why all you guys are always, always going on about him and his hair and so on, right? You think we haven’t noticed how hot he makes you?

Now stop with the foolishness and get some opposition leader who isn’t a twerp. And get that oaf in Ontario under control.

#125 The Real Mark on 03.08.20 at 10:54 pm

“#50 Have relative in AB on 03.08.20 at 5:52 pm
The Alberta house appraisal just came in another 50k down from 6 months ago.

Now appraised at 30k less than what I paid for it in 2003.”

Doesn’t sound that unusual historically. A house that is 17 years older probably has experienced at least $30k worth of physical deterioration and would require at least $30k of investment to restore it to its 2003 condition.

This is “normal”. Completely abnormal is houses doubling and tripling since 2003.

#126 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 11:04 pm

#53 Tony on 03.08.20 at 5:59 pm
Re: #9 SOMETHINGS UP on 03.08.20 at 3:49 pm

Interest rate cuts have about a 6 to 8 month lag before they kick in. The election in America is this November. Sounds like more than just a coincidence to me. I swear if anyone else was the president interest rates wouldn’t be falling right now.

————————

I didn’t even know the US president was in charge of Canada’s financials. Live and learn.

#127 Keyboard Smasher on 03.08.20 at 11:22 pm

I’m not even logging into my TD direct investing account these days.

I’ve taken up a new hobby, plastic models of tanks and cigars.

#128 The Real Mark on 03.08.20 at 11:24 pm

“Trudeau deficit this yr will be $60 billion”

That’d actually be pretty good; Harper added approximately $130B of debt, ie: ran a $130B deficit between January and December of 2009.

#129 Rexx Rock on 03.08.20 at 11:34 pm

Went to Superstore to buy toilet paper and everything was gone.I’m so afraid in Victoria.Buy gold, listen to Garth and hold on to your investments.Cad going down big time.

#130 Robert Ash on 03.08.20 at 11:53 pm

Just a reminder that as a Country Energy Security of every facet should be maximized. The latest Global Energy Market disruption between Russia and Saudi Arabia… should remind us that if we allow our Energy Industry to falter, and fail, we will be at the Mercy of any global disagreement, and pay or underpay at any time… We will be a Country that loses it’s independence to well Energize itself… a very basic need…. While it appears, that Prices at the Pump will help Canadian Budgets, if crude falls, we still need Energy of all forms, including Nuclear… We should not allow incompetence to interfere, with our Ability to Heat our Homes, Sail our Ships, and Fly our Planes..etc. I hope common sense concerning Government Decisions, starts to become the standard practice, and pragmatic and realistic Decisions are forthcoming… I also hope that Canadians stop the Rhetoric, and consider what happens, when basic needs, of an entire National wellbeing are not Insured. I find it very hard to understand, with all the Print Media, about the Transgressions, of some Oil Producing countries, that the Government of Canada, would even for a moment, relinquish, or diminish our status, with this important Input to our Nations wellbeing and future security.

#131 NoName on 03.08.20 at 11:55 pm

If it gets deleted it OK.

For non strata toilet paper horders, mortgage helper that will also complement backyard landscape can be converted in inlow suite…

https://www.realworldsurvivor.com/2013/07/30/outhouse-design-a-privy-paradise/

#132 will on 03.09.20 at 12:10 am

maybe the people buying all those rolls of tad think they are making an investment. Maybe they think they will be able to sell it to losers in need of bumwad at a hundred percent markup. Corner the market. One roll at a time. Hmmm… I wonder if KPT would be a good buy now… nice yield of 6.43…

#133 just snootin' on 03.09.20 at 12:12 am

CAD toilet paper vs US toilet paper vs real toilet paper?
Tough one.

I will say my body awareness is running at paranoia level. Every nasal tingle becomes an area of scrutiny—and I’m living semi-boons (more likely to contract some deer fever.) Went to a peewee championship this aft and behaviour outside the complex was subdued but cheerful. Now, should i have had the mini donuts or not? Six all tie last minute of the third. Our guys took it with seconds left. Dats hawky.

#134 baloney Sandwitch on 03.09.20 at 12:21 am

Great buying opportunity on oil stocks coming up on Monday.

#135 Melvin on 03.09.20 at 12:30 am

Curious there’s next to no news coverage on the coming knock on effect of China being closed down for weeks. Buddy of mine is part of one of the big CEO networking clubs and here’s some of the news he’s privy to:

-Company he runs does about 70 million in food packaging supplies. Customers are trying to delay orders due to not being able to get any jars to pack food into. There’s aren’t supply chains that can just change on a fine to new packaging options. Next step is food producers junking produce as no way to package the processed products.
-Same company now running into problems getting supplies from Europe because ALL shipping containers are sitting in China not moving.
-Same company contingency plan if no change in a month or do is lay off half of company
-Head of major courier company is in a panic because nothing is moving at the container level. Fuguring a month or less before major impact on employment of truckers and port employees
-Head of canada for a major japanese electronics co – hasn’t been able to get ANY reports from Chinese supplier for weeks. Inventory pipeline is dead. They employ 24000 people in canada. Contingency plan in coming weeks is to lay off 8000+ employees.

Just a few tidbits of what’s happening in the background. Many high level business people think the ripple effect of what’s already taken place could hit as hard as 2008 recession and much worse if more major quarantines required. Not sure what good extra toilet paper will do once major layoffs start going through the levels of supply chain. How many are 200 bucks from bankruptcy…

#136 Melvin on 03.09.20 at 12:34 am

And also business guys level of confidence government has any clue the extent of the impending storm – zero.

#137 SoggyShorts on 03.09.20 at 12:35 am

#6 COVFEFE-19 on 03.08.20 at 3:39 pm
Oh, this IS rich! Now, suddenly, Chinese money flows are affecting West coast North America real estate?
*******
Not the Chinese money flows(that was never the issue) but rather the FOMO – if people don’t irrationality fear the Chinese buying up all of the property then they don’t have FOMO.

Pretty simple and as GT said consistent.

#138 Keith on 03.09.20 at 12:40 am

@ #98

A friend of mine with a large portfolio of properties (no day job) was offered a five year rate of 2.07 percent from TD four days ago. It’s a tough call to grind out the best decision right now.

#139 SoggyShorts on 03.09.20 at 12:49 am

#115 Stone on 03.08.20 at 9:46 pm
#106 Captain Uppa on 03.08.20 at 8:45 pm
———
I’m curious how everyone’s balanced and diversified portfolios are doing. As of last Friday, I was at -1.45% including all distributions (dividends, interest payments, etc.).

How’s everyone else holding up?
*******
-4.14% YTD not including any dividends
Everything except my 10% weighting in XRE sucks.
100/0 portfolio (unless you count XRE)

2019 was +23%

2019+2020 = +17% (I went DiY in Dec 2018 but most transfers/trades settled January 2019)

Some benchmarks:
VEQT -6.4% YTD 100/0
VGRO -4.4% YTD 80/20
VBAL -2.0% YTD 60/40

The benchmarks make me feel a little better. But just a little.

#140 will on 03.09.20 at 12:50 am

Toilet paper, facial tissue, napkins, and paper towels are made from bleached wood fibre. So I guess in theory a spike in demand ought to at some point lead to an increase in supply to replenish (the grocery shelves). Such an increase in supply can’t happen all that quickly. Not like electricity production. Production of bleached fibre must take some time to replenish the grocery shelves.

#141 Not So New guy on 03.09.20 at 12:52 am

#21 Linda on 03.08.20 at 4:29 pm

So, is there an ETF that has toilet paper futures in it? Must be soaring like an eagle what with the panic buying:)

=================================

Be careful. If the market flushes out you get wiped.

Though in trading, the price usually leads the news so you’ll be wiped even before the flush which is kinda natural for this market.

#142 Lorne on 03.09.20 at 12:57 am

#96 Steven Rowlandson on 03.08.20 at 8:24 pm
This is minutes old from BNN.

wti $32.35
wcs discount $13.35
Canada – Alberta gets $19.00 a barrel for wcs crude

If this sort of pricing sticks or goes lower it can’t be good for the oil industry and may be not the real estate market either. It takes some pretty hefty incomes and profits to support the price of homes and if the money dries up and confidence goes poof watch out below.
……..
Now, surely the price of gas will go down immediately…..just like it goes up immediately when the price or oil rises!

#143 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.20 at 12:57 am

#76 Howard on 03.08.20 at 7:20 pm
Italy just announced a quarantine of 1/4 of its population. Still think this is nothing?

I hope Dolce Vita is going okay…
———-
I hope so too.
But I think he’s hiding in his Mama’s basement in Burnaby.

#144 Nonplused on 03.09.20 at 12:57 am

#116 Drinking on 03.08.20 at 10:05 pm

“Perhaps Alberta will finally receive a cheque from Quebec!”

I wouldn’t count on that. They will separate in a New York minute if that even became a prospect or discussion point. The only reason the stayed in Canada in the first place was transfer payments.

#145 will on 03.09.20 at 12:59 am

Another industry involved is the chemical industry that supplies acid to the pulp mills to produce the pulp used by the makers of butt wipe. Chemtrade comes to mind.

#146 SoggyShorts on 03.09.20 at 1:00 am

#123 SoggyShorts on 03.09.20 at 12:49 am
#115 Stone on 03.08.20 at 9:46 pm
#106 Captain Uppa on 03.08.20 at 8:45 pm

I’d be very interested to know how blog dogs like sail away and tccontrarian are doing (and did last year) since they seem to have active investment strategies

#147 crazyfox on 03.09.20 at 1:03 am

#121 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 10:40 pm

Apology accepted! I know I can sometimes be a tiny weeny bit overbearing and ever so slightly partisan myself :). My apologies for misunderstanding you and being unpleasant about it, SA. I hope we can both move on from this awkward moment with renewed mutual growth and respect. Peace.

#148 Nonplused on 03.09.20 at 1:05 am

#121 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 10:40 pm

“Sorry Crazy, I read it literally.

Also, no anti Chinese sentiment here. I thought the ‘Kelowna virus’ was a good play on words. Should have clarified.”

————–

I think “Kelowna virus” is actually not a bad play on words. Probably why Garth let it pass. But it is a sensitive issue, so let’s be careful. The Covid virus, like the Kelowna virus, does not appear to discriminate. We are all at risk for both ailments, and herd immunity seems to be low for both. The “Kelowna virus” does not kill directly, but I think people paying way to much for houses here might one day wish it did.

#149 will on 03.09.20 at 1:06 am

One last comment and I promise I will shut up. The chemicals used in butt wipe (pulp) production are transported by rail. So there’s another risk factor added to the mix…

#150 will on 03.09.20 at 1:11 am

“All we know for sure is that the next six weeks will be full of surprises.”

That’s very specific Garth. Six weeks. What do you mean by that?

#151 Russian Bear week on 03.09.20 at 1:11 am

Putin and MBS go toe to toe… Albertastan gets creamed…..

When do we get our transfer payments… Quebec has a nice budget surplus!

#152 Shinzo on 03.09.20 at 1:36 am

Crazy?

Crazy was the folks who bought into all the paper products while cheerleading the fed to keep supporting the bubbles.

Stupid is as stupid does… who said that?

#153 crazyfox on 03.09.20 at 1:40 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUI6DIswmFk&feature=share

It looks like Canada’s point man on COVID-19 with the WHO is an excellent choice.

“The vast majority of people who are driving this virus are going to be those who have symptoms as well as very close contacts, long term exposures. I keep hearing this tip of the ice burg story as if there’s all of these people with asymptomatic disease wandering around that are spreading it. There’s no evidence of that. Sure there are some asymptomatic people. But there aren’t what we call asymptomatic transmission chains. Eventually, someone is going to show the disease, not eventually, very, very quickly. So, that’s the reason these measures actually can work. A small proportion of people that will spread the disease are asymptomatic.” – Dr. Bruce Aylward

Couple what Aylward is saying with the CFR of reported closed cases (with an outcome, either got well or died), currently at 6% with 66,110 closed cases:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The entire interview is excellent. This virus is high fever dry cough. Getting back to what China is doing that is working, reading temperatures everywhere will detect people who are beginning to run a fever but don’t know it. Everyone is temperature scanned wherever they go, whether its a bank or a restaurant or store, etc. and its not just China, but South Korea (with numbers dropping there) and Singapore. These nations are using the same government GPS tracking app China used to re-enforce self quarantines and identify people running a fever or high risk individuals. Cel GPS gives government officials a record of travel history, highly important for tracking down chains of infection.

The CBC did a story today asking the very question of whether the Chinese app South Korea and Singapore are using could be used in cities like NY. Canada needs to take a long hard look at using it here. The decision to implement a cel tracking app that notifies and tracks the public of the locations of all infected and to some degree suspected cases will be a federal decision:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjEKiUvPk2Q

#154 CAD??? on 03.09.20 at 1:52 am

WTI $28 and CAD still up over $.73.

Ya OK sure.

The last time oil was near $30 in 2015, CAD under $.69

Aussie dollar trading at a far more realistic $.65 even with a lower prime rate taken into account.

CAD insanely overvalued. Worth $.68 at best.

#155 SlideAway on 03.09.20 at 4:02 am

Garth,

The markets have been “buffeted”. Don’t say you weren’t “warrened”!

#156 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 4:03 am

“Thank you Ontario women for forcing this gem onto the rest of us.”

or, “Happy international women’s day everyone! Western creeps and bums now blame you for voting Trudeau instead of the unelectable which they put forward as an alternative. Next holiday on the calendar, World Albatross Day, June 19.”

Stay classy, Howard.

#157 Gary Gunner on 03.09.20 at 5:01 am

Toilet paper is always one of the first shortages in dysfunctional economies. Even luxury hotels in the old Soviet bloc rarely had bumwad on hand, even though caviar was plentiful. A much smarter idea would be to eliminate it altogether via Southeast Asian style “bum-guns”…think kitchen sink style sprayer attached to toilet. The Japanese high tech auto toilet with the pulsating jets of massage water are a more expensive version of this.

#158 Torrance Taxing on 03.09.20 at 5:31 am

Garth,

Definitely a correlation between the toilet paper shortage and the elimination of the handshake….That old proverb comes to mind, Man who goes to bed with itchy bum…..

#159 Howard on 03.09.20 at 6:23 am

#156 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 4:03 am
“Thank you Ontario women for forcing this gem onto the rest of us.”

or, “Happy international women’s day everyone! Western creeps and bums now blame you for voting Trudeau instead of the unelectable which they put forward as an alternative. Next holiday on the calendar, World Albatross Day, June 19.”

Stay classy, Howard.

————————————————

I’m not a Westerner. And you apparently think women voters are beyond reproach. Grow up. Women, especially Millennial women, put twinkle toes in power because they liked his hair.

“Unelectable” Scheer – yes a mild mannered family man who, despite a charisma deficit, is miles more intelligent than Trudeau. And unlike Trudeau he’s never been accused of groping women either.

#160 Howard on 03.09.20 at 6:34 am

#124 SW on 03.08.20 at 10:51 pm
#91 Howard on 03.08.20 at 8:12 pm
“It’s a good thing Canada has a first rate intellect like Justin Trudeau to lead it during a period of pandemic and likely global recession! Thank you Ontario women for forcing this gem onto the rest of us.”

Oh Howard, you’re so welcome! He’s really dreamy isn’t he?

That’s why all you guys are always, always going on about him and his hair and so on, right? You think we haven’t noticed how hot he makes you?

Now stop with the foolishness and get some opposition leader who isn’t a twerp. And get that oaf in Ontario under control.

—————————————————-

I never liked Scheer because he is a globalist which I consider to be a nation-destroying ideology (and on its way out, I would add). I was for Bernier.

But superficiality aside (“twerp” etc), he’s objectively leagues more intelligent and qualified than the current occupant.

#161 Sail Away on 03.09.20 at 7:37 am

#146 SoggyShorts on 03.09.20 at 1:00 am

I’d be very interested to know how blog dogs like sail away and tccontrarian are doing (and did last year) since they seem to have active investment strategies

———————–

I’m currently paying zero attention to the sea of red other than buys. Will do an after action review when things settle down.

#162 Captain Uppa on 03.09.20 at 8:04 am

Holy flight to bonds, Batman! Oil going to $20?!

Mortgages are going to go be near-free with insanely low rates.

GTA market to become hotter than mass Australian bush fires. Provided jobs remain … and that’s the big if.

#163 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.20 at 8:31 am

@#149 will
“The chemicals used in butt wipe (pulp) production are transported by rail. ”
++++

No problem.
We can strap dozens of Toilet paper bales to the front of the locomotives and push those bums off the rails.

#164 Alex Smart on 03.09.20 at 8:31 am

Wondering why people hoard toilet paper? Well I will tell you that I spent my entire life in the US military and have been in war zones where supply lines have been cut off, and the no.1 thing ppl wanted was to feel human, to feel like their was something from their humanity left in the most dire of circumstances. Toilet paper might not seem like much of a luxury item to a bunch of soft spoiled folks who have never been in a tumultuous situation before, but believe me it is, and will be prized, when and if the shit hits the fan in the land of the free and the home of the brave.

One last thing chocolates and silk stockings also might not seem important , but if some of you older guys might remember, that they were in high demand in Europe at the end of the 2nd world war, where even the little things in life were scarce.

#165 TurnerNation on 03.09.20 at 8:39 am

Oil takeaway. When our rulers begin blathering on about Middle Class Prosperity…run!
And appointing a Minister thereto.
At this rate Alberta will become like Newfoundland . People will remember that time oil/fishing ruled. Houses too will be had for $150,000

All this cheap energy. Natural gas prices at record lows too. No our elite rulers never let us have cheap energy. It’s all government controlled electricity prices and boondoggle white elephant “green energy projects” handed out to Party Faithful.

#166 not 1st on 03.09.20 at 8:40 am

Trudeau thought he could trigger a recession just in Alberta and keep the west down while sucking it dry. He is going to trigger one in the rest of Canada now.

If you voted for him, just admit that you liked his hair. There would be more dignity for you.

#167 Phylis on 03.09.20 at 8:49 am

Warren to Charlie, “Open the vault”.

#168 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 9:00 am

“And you apparently think women voters are beyond reproach.”

You just go right ahead and keep reproaching women voters, Howard. Call them superficial, especially the millennials, and the ones in Ontario. I’m sure if you explain it to them simply enough, they’ll get the message.

Thing is, their turnout is 2-4% higher than men. And there’s about half a million more women eligible to vote than men. Meaning about 800,000 more women than men vote. Maybe if the Conservatives want a shot at power, they should get rid of or gag the troglodytes in their ranks? Like you, Howard.

#169 Jim on 03.09.20 at 9:14 am

Someone please buy and create an artificial demand for Brent Crude! I’ve invested over C$1,000,000 on energy shares and EVERY oil company is losing money this time.

China and India please produce more babies, use more oil and create more demand!

#170 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 9:19 am

Attention technical analysts: Hourly index futures have now completed the rare “forklift” pattern.

#171 JB on 03.09.20 at 9:19 am

#35 not 1st on 03.08.20 at 5:07 pm

Garth, china’s first quarantine move was to lock thousands of people in their concrete boxes in the sky to share recirculated air. You couldn’t give me one of those places. I would be looking for some bare land far away from the unwashed masses.

I have a hard time believing there is a super horny subset of people just dying to jump into this overinflated gas bag housing market just because of a 1% drop in rates. I mean anyone who sat on the sidelines watched these places go up by a couple hundred G in the past few yrs. A 1% cut isn’t going to make any difference in affordability.
……………………………………………………
This is one item that millions of wrinkly old retires will now learn now and in the future. Sell your individually isolated domicile on the ground with fresh clean air and move into a seal concrete petri dish with the rest of the bacterial experiments to share the same air. Yuk, I guess all of the condo rats are going to be experiments on how to prevent future contagions from spreading.

#172 Orange Man...Orange on 03.09.20 at 9:19 am

Newsflash!

Bernie will not be President. Neither will Biden. The DNC will engineer a brokered convention where the nominee will be…. Hillary.

Biden throws his support behind Hillary, saying that he came up with the idea shortly after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.

Warren said that she is changing her name to Hillary so she could get on the ballot.

Bernie said that his old buddy Lenin did the same thing to Trotsky, and he was expecting the shiv because that the Socialist way.

Hillary accepts the nomination then goes on a book tour to name, blame and shame every person, dog, cat and goldfish in America for her losing in 2016. Her tour takes so long that she misses the election and Trump wins again.

You think I’m making this up? Just wait.

#173 JB on 03.09.20 at 9:46 am

#119 T PT2 on 03.08.20 at 10:21 pm

Aww yes.

Trading curbs in effect.

Down limit.

The millenials will need to google what that means.
……………………………………………………..
It means I should have invested in toilet paper as everyone appears to $hitting themselves over the huge hit that we knew was coming last Friday.
Pray?
DJWW!

#174 not 1st on 03.09.20 at 9:47 am

#168 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 9:00 am
—-

That’s a cop out. Any group that had an oversized hand in rewarding incompetence with power needs to be called out and chastised. Are you saying women cant handle criticism?

Let me give you an example of the incompetence that sits in the PMO right now. In the US Trump is putting in 20 hr days dealing with the economy and coronavirus. Some of his early actions blunted the spread of that virus in NA.

Whats on Justins plate, well dozens of personal days, private meetings, flying 2 planes around montreal, lecturing people who mine our resources and knee slapping legislation like conversion therapy, criminalizing duck hunters and oh climate change, always climate change stalking us. He uses that canard just about as much as his middle class lines.

#175 The other Lebowski on 03.09.20 at 9:49 am

Darn circuit breakers. Nothing instills calm and confidence like locking the exit doors in the burning casino.

#176 Captain Uppa on 03.09.20 at 9:51 am

Looking forward to today’s post from Garth.

It’s Armageddon out there! lol

#177 JB on 03.09.20 at 9:52 am

I don’t want to spread rumors but this doesn’t bode well.
So Garth what say ye?
Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go, there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/global-recession-inevitable-analysts-comment-on-market-crash-2020-3-1028975432

#178 Sail Away on 03.09.20 at 9:59 am

Oh my. Wow.

#179 calgary rip off on 03.09.20 at 10:02 am

If there is anything to be hoarded, it is Vitamin C. At the NW Costco yesterday(sunday) toilet paper was sold out. I actually needed to buy some as house was close to out, so ended up buying some at the local supermarket for a reasonable price but no stockpiling as I am not a sheep.

Its funny the Vitamin C aisle at Costco along with Vitamin D3 and everything else was full at the NW Costco. Hand sanitizer was also sold out. It is too bad that conventional medicine does not tell the public how potent vitamin C is in preventing bad infection. The reality is that most medical professionals have no clue as to how to handle viruses for which no vaccination exists and many doctors criticize “vitamins” for providing only expensive urine. Such doctors are idiots and in my view should be fired on the spot. Once I converse with a doctor and they make a comment that vitamins are blatantly ineffective, not that moderation is key to prevent harm that doctors authority is lost forever. I may have to work with them, but the majority have no clue in dealing with unknown viruses. Typically medicine is based on medications with all their lovely side effects which are often denied by physicians. If you are the n=1 the effects are not so insubstantial. And as such is evidence based medicine.

The general public should be stockpiling vitamin C and vitamin D3. If they get really sick they will need Vitamin C in abundance. The worst symptom they will get is the runs or possibly kidney stones. This beats needing an ECMO machine or PEEP ventilation like some of the patients currently in Italy who according to physicians reports had no previous comorbidities and now require PEEP(positive end expiratory pressures) from a ventilator to maintain normal oxygen saturations.

The Chinese are using TCM, ventilators when needed, intravenous vitamin C, and HIV drugs. In Canada likely if you visit the doctor they will take forever to do a Covid 19 diagnostic test and likely will just give you advice to stay at home and self quarantine. Idiots!

#180 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 10:16 am

“In the US Trump is putting in 20 hr days dealing with the economy and coronavirus.”

He is golfing in Florida and tweeting about Obama, while all weekend a cruise ship full of sick Americans has slowly circled outside San Francisco Bay.

You, on the other hand, are mansplaining to a group that forms the majority of eligible voters, and an even bigger majority of actual voters, that they’re doing it wrong.

#181 earlybird on 03.09.20 at 10:26 am

Wow…a large case of toilet paper is now worth more than a barrel of Western Canadian Select….maybe people are not so dumb…lol…

#182 SW on 03.09.20 at 10:28 am

#160 Howard on 03.09.20 at 6:34 am
“I never liked Scheer because he is a globalist which I consider to be a nation-destroying ideology (and on its way out, I would add). I was for Bernier.
But superficiality aside (“twerp” etc), he’s objectively leagues more intelligent and qualified than the current occupant.”

Howard, you have to present a palatable option to the voters, not insult them.

You’re assuming that people, especially women, vote based on good looks. It is very reminiscent of the kinds of things said by some men when women got the vote a century ago. In fact women often vote fairly conservatively (small-c).

I have spoken to quite a few older men who vote Conservative, and to a man they still trot out the hateful anti-Trudeau tropes we hear so often. It’s not useful in extending their base. It just makes them look bitter, powerless and out-of-touch.

I hope you’re not one of them Howard.

I’m not even a Liberal voter. I want a decent, responsible opposition, right now.

Incidentally, Scheer lost my respect when he led the Conservatives in the House for many hours of braying and heckling while Morneau was delivering his Budget. Sheesh.

#183 IHCTD9 on 03.09.20 at 10:37 am

“Western creeps and bums now blame you for voting Trudeau instead of the unelectable which they put forward as an alternative”

“Now stop with the foolishness and get some opposition leader who isn’t a twerp. And get that oaf in Ontario under control.”
___

Ahh, the Canadian voter…

You can see the pure partisan zealotry. It just don’t matter how bad the candidate may be. Some folks would happily vote for an ape if they hate the opposing party enough.

Like I’ve said before, it’s going to take serious financial pain before some folks smarten up. Being jobless and struggling to survive are the last few miles on the road to an honest list of priorities.

I’d hate to be the PM that follows Trudeau. The damage could not be repaired in one term no matter how draconian the measures taken – it’s just too much.

#184 Lee on 03.09.20 at 10:37 am

BUMWAD ! – The currency of the NEW Millenium . Maybe I should start a new futures exchange

#185 Stone on 03.09.20 at 10:52 am

Good job balanced and diversified portfolio! Good job low volatility ETFs! Currently at -4.27% YTD including distributions received YTD for my portfolio.

Now, the big question. When is the right time to rebalance everything?

#186 Judy Blazer on 03.09.20 at 11:05 am

Jim #169 , if $1,000,000 in oil is 5% of your portfolio then you’ve got nothing to worry about. Otherwise the inflection point may be closer than you think and buying more with dividend cash flow might prove a genius move 12-24 months from now. The few countries like Canada that have shot themselves in the foot on energy are going to be back inthe game as the Luddites are chased out of office.

#166 Not 1st. The upside is that Smarmy Potato is getting his ass handed to him with a collapsing dollar and plunging energy revenues ripping the bottom out of Morneau budget dreams. It’s debt debt debt. Principal debt I think they call it? Where spending exceeds revenue? The last time that happened Canada couldn’t sell its bonds, in the nineties wasn’t it?

At a time when AB energy could have bailed him out he finds himself on the wrong side, sweet.

For the rest of us, screw it. I’m going on vacation. Isn’t that what Adam Smith recommended?

#187 tkid on 03.09.20 at 11:09 am

#115 Stone on 03.08.20 at 9:46 pm
#106 Captain Uppa on 03.08.20 at 8:45 pm
———
I’m curious how everyone’s balanced and diversified portfolios are doing. As of last Friday, I was at -1.45% including all distributions (dividends, interest payments, etc.).

How’s everyone else holding up?
*******

I sold my US holdings before the storm. I’m down 3.5% Currently trying to figure when to buy back in to US markets.

#188 Phylis on 03.09.20 at 11:11 am

So….. the big question….. What scotch did you buy?

#189 not 1st on 03.09.20 at 11:19 am

Maybe some day Garth will write a post about Texas. A state that is 1/15th the land mass of Canada, with a small fraction of our resources and $10M less people somehow finds a way to generate a GDP bigger than our entire nation.

Canada is already hamstrung and unproductive to start with, now we have internal and regional division, a hostile PM and woke losers and FN throwing a wrench into it all.

Add into it a crushing debt, unrepayable now, non development policies and there is no way this country survives. Best let Trump take the best parts. How a people living on $500T in resources could still be in debt will be subjects of history books.

#190 CanadianGrizzly on 03.09.20 at 11:19 am

So it looks like the early adopter sheeple are starting to take the pandemic seriously in Canada. But toilet paper? In Canada? MSB abound. Can’t wait to see when the “masses” panic when they instructed by the MSM to do so.

We are swimming in TP. Search Google for Canadian manufacturers. Hong Kong panic bought because it was being imported from China but even they have a stable supply now after the blip.

Cascades – Canadian Made Toilet Paper and Paper Towel http://www.cascadesflufftuff.com
Kirkland Signature Bath Tissue – Canadian Made Toilet Paper http://www.costco.ca
Kruger – Canadian Made Toilet Paper and Paper Towel http://www.krugerproducts.ca
Majesta – Canadian Made Toilet Paper and Tissue Paper http://www.majesta.com
Purex – Canadian Made Toilet Paper http://www.purex.ca
Royale – Canadian Made Toilet Paper http://www.royale.ca

As for housing, price movement will be regional and local. 5% are from foreign buyers but that figure is national. Its much more concentrated in specific areas in YVR, GTA and Montreal where they want to invest or park-money which results in much greater price volatility.

There might be an early spike in prices as the really desperate buyers bid things up but flat to down is more likely as I suspect domestic house buyers will become more reluctant to commit to a big mortgage when they see that their job security is being threatened by the dramatic economic slow-down that is coming this spring due the spread of the virus.

#191 gong show on 03.09.20 at 11:22 am

maybe premature but be patient, at some point this will appear much smarter than your 401

#192 Epic Stuff on 03.09.20 at 11:26 am

The bumwad hoarders may have been onto something!

Putin and MBS in a fight to the death to kill the frackers

Albertastan gets creamed… sockboy and his puppetmaster have their dream realized… The Cons better get their act together .. a recession with a massive deficit and T2 will be ripe to take out….
who are the idiots that elected him……

Is cornavirous still a thing!

#193 OK, Doomer? on 03.09.20 at 11:30 am

I was recently asked if I thought Trudeau was racist for the blackface incidents. I said not at all. He’s something far more dangerous. He’s a stupid, stupid man.

He’s now created a situation where my daughter, an engineering grad, is being forced to leave the country to find work. So Trudeau has poisoned the well for the next three generations of engineers who will never find work. And depending where she works I may only see her once every couple of years.

So let’s add it up.

The next three generations of engineers out of work because Teck left.

He forced my brilliant, beautiful, hardworking daughter to leave the country and separated our family.

Tax base massively eroded.

Canada’s number one export sidelined.

Steep price to pay to keep the Tides Foundation and Greta happy. But wait,Greta will never be happy. She’s emotionally wrecked as her mother stated.

Well, at least Trudeau fed the greedy maw of the oligarchs backing the Tides Foundation.

I stand by my original statement. Trudeau is a stupid, stupid man. His father was an SOB, but at least he defended Canada.

#194 Black Monday Redux on 03.09.20 at 11:30 am

Gold and bitcoin ain’t saving anyone…. haha… but those treasuries sure do the job.

#195 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.20 at 11:37 am

Economics 101

Will Greta be pleased that the world is awash in cheap oil no one wants to buy?

#196 IHCTD9 on 03.09.20 at 11:37 am

#168 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 9:00 am

…Thing is, their turnout is 2-4% higher than men. And there’s about half a million more women eligible to vote than men. Meaning about 800,000 more women than men vote. Maybe if the Conservatives want a shot at power, they should get rid of or gag the troglodytes in their ranks? Like you, Howard.
___

You know what else Women are gaining strength in?

Working and earning.

A few decades from now, Women will be remitting the solid majority of tax dollars to our various governments, taking on a larger and larger slice of the cost of society as the years roll by. They will be earning nearly the same as Men, but collectively putting in a lot more hours – far exceeding those of Men.

Men will continue to vote less and work less as the decades roll by. The Western world is expected to see hoards of single Mothers working full time and raising kids. Most Men will return to bachelor lifestyles, much as they lived after the era of subsistence farming and before being pressed into war, nation and family building en-masse throughout the 19th and 20th centuries.

We already see sub-groups of Men forming and expanding. These are the ‘transitional” groups where Men still value Family and Career. After these will come those who never knew of those days. The Men largely raised without a Father figure, without the competition or expectations levied by other Men, and with about half the T levels their grandpa had.

Women today may like the idea of career and bread winning – but it appears Men are only too happy to hand over the torch even now.

The Universe sometimes has a sneaky was of balancing things out…

#197 Piano_Man87 on 03.09.20 at 11:41 am

Saw a great meme over the weekend:

“Sorry, sir. The test came back positive for COVID-19. You have Coronavirus.”

“Impossible. I have 100 cases of Costco water and 500 rolls of Costco toilet paper.”

#198 IHCTD9 on 03.09.20 at 11:49 am

#182 SW on 03.09.20 at 10:28 am

Incidentally, Scheer lost my respect when he led the Conservatives in the House for many hours of braying and heckling while Morneau was delivering his Budget. Sheesh.
___

Yes braying and Heckling in the house is unheard of and a complete deal breaker.

I totally tossed Shearer out the window after that too.

Some things I can handle, you know – a little blackface here and there, or groping the occasional Woman a little bit. Little stuff like that is not so bad.

But heckling and braying in the House?

JUST FORGET IT!

#199 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 12:07 pm

“When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.” — Warren “no moat” Buffett comments on his recent investments in Suncor and Oxy Pete

#200 Captain Uppa on 03.09.20 at 12:13 pm

Perhaps textbook “prisoner of the moment”, but I am seeing lots of bets on 0%-Negative rates coming to the US.

#201 The other Lebowski on 03.09.20 at 12:15 pm

Well it’s official. My TP stash is now worth more than my portfolio. That’s the sh*ts.

#202 SimplyPut7 on 03.09.20 at 12:16 pm

We haven’t even reached the low of December 2018.

Also, people are not fearful of owing hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt in speculative real estate.

On the other hand, this is a good lesson for all of those novice investors who didn’t think they needed fixed-income investments in their portfolios anymore.

#203 not 1st on 03.09.20 at 12:23 pm

Sask lab has a vaccine in testing…

https://globalnews.ca/news/6635607/ferrets-a-saskatoon-lab-and-the-leading-edge-of-the-race-for-a-coronavirus-vaccine/

#204 Yukon Elvis on 03.09.20 at 12:35 pm

Jeep #157 Gary Gunner on 03.09.20 at 5:01 am
Toilet paper is always one of the first shortages in dysfunctional economies. Even luxury hotels in the old Soviet bloc rarely had bumwad on hand, even though caviar was plentiful. A much smarter idea would be to eliminate it altogether via Southeast Asian style “bum-guns”…think kitchen sink style sprayer attached to toilet. The Japanese high tech auto toilet with the pulsating jets of massage water are a more expensive version of this.
…………………………..

Bum guns work just fine. They can be fun too…if u know what I mean. But you have to dry off too. Drip drip. Bring a book. Maybe a hair dryer too. Try not to electrocute yourself.

#205 Howard on 03.09.20 at 12:53 pm

Natural gas is starting to look interesting. It has double bottomed off the 2016 low. On an inflation adjusted basis it’s at an all-time low. Collapsing crude is actually good for natural gas since 20% of natural gas is associated with oil extraction. Lower oil production = lower natural gas. Risky commodity but at these prices how much more downside is there possibly left?

#206 Howard on 03.09.20 at 12:54 pm

Lower oil production = Lower natural gas SUPPLY, I meant.

#207 Victor on 03.09.20 at 12:57 pm

Toilet paper huge sales – for lots of people s… happens much more often when they are scared. I am similar, just not really scared so far.

#208 get real on 03.09.20 at 1:03 pm

#130 Robert Ash
Nobody is going to take you seriously until you figure out how commas work. FYI

#209 IHCTD9 on 03.09.20 at 1:04 pm

#195 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.20 at 11:37 am
Economics 101

Will Greta be pleased that the world is awash in cheap oil no one wants to buy?
___

She should be – all that jet fuel she uses to get around just got cheaper!

#210 COVFEFE-19 on 03.09.20 at 1:07 pm

“Here’s an amazing stat. The stock market’s entire gain (ex divs) has come when the daily change was less than 0.9%. That’s up and down days.

All the days with daily changes of more than 0.9% have combined to be a net loser.”

https://twitter.com/EddyElfenbein/status/1237051493280370688

#211 JB on 03.09.20 at 1:11 pm

#193 OK, Doomer? on 03.09.20 at 11:30 am

I was recently asked if I thought Trudeau was racist for the blackface incidents. I said not at all. He’s something far more dangerous. He’s a stupid, stupid man.

He’s now created a situation where my daughter, an engineering grad, is being forced to leave the country to find work. So Trudeau has poisoned the well for the next three generations of engineers who will never find work. And depending where she works I may only see her once every couple of years.

So let’s add it up.

The next three generations of engineers out of work because Teck left.

He forced my brilliant, beautiful, hardworking daughter to leave the country and separated our family.

Tax base massively eroded.

Canada’s number one export sidelined.

Steep price to pay to keep the Tides Foundation and Greta happy. But wait,Greta will never be happy. She’s emotionally wrecked as her mother stated.

Well, at least Trudeau fed the greedy maw of the oligarchs backing the Tides Foundation.

I stand by my original statement. Trudeau is a stupid, stupid man. His father was an SOB, but at least he defended Canada.
………………………………………………………
Yes Trudeau is a dumb as a stump but he has caused way too much Drama, woah wait oh $hit I forgot Trudeau = Drama Teacher. Never mind
BTW I didn’t vote for the Blackface guy in either election. I’m surprised he didn’t go and stand with the rest of the union stooges on the picket lines here.

#212 Attrition on 03.09.20 at 1:17 pm

It’s times like these I’m thankful for the two toilet seats I brought back from Japan. Heated seat, heated water, eminently adjustable temperatures and pressures, and of course blow dry for those who want it.

#213 Bark on 03.09.20 at 1:20 pm

These people need to smarten up and use bidets. Bidets leave you cleaner, they’ll save you money on TP, and apparently they’re also good to have have in times of crisis.

#214 JB on 03.09.20 at 1:26 pm

#203 not 1st on 03.09.20 at 12:23 pm

Sask lab has a vaccine in testing…

https://globalnews.ca/news/6635607/ferrets-a-saskatoon-lab-and-the-leading-edge-of-the-race-for-a-coronavirus-vaccine/
…………………………………………………
Go Rider Nation go. If anyone can do it then it has to be these guys and do it fast.
Now how do I buy their stocks?

#215 Ubul on 03.09.20 at 1:31 pm

BMO wiped out 5 years gain.

#216 jess on 03.09.20 at 1:38 pm

jet fuel

https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/

back to local
New York is making its own hand sanitizer using prison labor

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced today that the state will attempt to combat “price gouging” and a shortage of hand sanitizer by making its own.

Cuomo said at a press conference that the hand sanitizer will be made by Corcraft, a company that operates in the state’s prison. The company employs inmates to produce products like household cleaners and tables and chairs.He said they are aiming to make “100,000 gallons” a week.

Cuomo said New York’s hand sanitizer will be “75% alcohol” and added that the smell has a “floral bouquet.”

He said the product will not be sold on the open market at this time. It will be made available in schools and prisons.

#217 jess on 03.09.20 at 1:45 pm

if 1 car ~60L
3 1/2 thousands cars vs 1 jumbo
A Boeing 747 can carry 48,445 gallons (183,380 liters)

https://gizmodo.com/these-guys-got-inside-the-fuel-tank-labyrinth-of-a-747-5928237

#218 technical analysis on 03.09.20 at 1:54 pm

#215 Ubul on 03.09.20 at 1:31 pm
___________________

BMO had the most rare of technical formations. a diamond reversal. you almost never see one, and to appear on a monthly chart, over a 3 year period, says this decline has a long way to go.

#219 Yuus bin Haad on 03.09.20 at 1:54 pm

Hi Garth, I logged into Robinhood to sell my Tesla and go to crypto, but it said they were experiencing some technical difficulty or something. You wouldn’t happen to have a phone number for the help desk, would you?

#220 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.20 at 2:02 pm

@#2019 IHCTD9
“She should be – all that jet fuel she uses to get around just got cheaper!”
++++

I hopped into a friend’s wife’s new Tesla on the weekend.
I said to them I thought that was the first time an electric vehicle had more gas in it than power…….
I also ruined the “new car” smell…..

#221 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.20 at 2:04 pm

@#213 Bark
“Bidets leave you cleaner, they’ll save you money on TP, and apparently they’re also good to have have in times of crisis.”
++++
Can’t you contract the Corona virus drinking out of a bidet?

#222 jess on 03.09.20 at 2:04 pm

why fly empty “ghost ” planes?
https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-coronavirus-outbreak-has-airlines-running-empty-gho-1842197367

…”The slots are allocated solely by independent coordinators and airlines must use 80 per cent of their allocated slots, or risk losing them in the years following. This is known as the “use it or lose it” rule. EU rules also promote the access of new airlines to airports.”

estimated $113 billion in lost sales as people avoid traveling for fear of contracting the illness, according to the International Air Transport Association.

RT Hon. Grant shapps MP uk – request urgent reconsideration of 80% slot utilisation rule.
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/airports/slots_en

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/travel/how-bad-is-air-travel-for-the-environment-51166834/

#223 Lee on 03.09.20 at 2:16 pm

The DOW appears to be more or less where it was 3 years ago and the TSX appears to be more or less where it was 6 years ago. Only fools would not jump in. You’re getting almost 6.0 as a dividend on CIBC if you buy today.

#224 Dups on 03.09.20 at 2:18 pm

People are stupid for panicking. Cheap oil should be great for the economy. Cheaper transportation.
Mr. market, bring it on…buy low and never sell…
-9% TSX in one day,,,what a gift that is.
Surprising not many cases of covid in India? The spices might fight the virus best.

#225 Sold Out on 03.09.20 at 2:19 pm

#216 jess on 03.09.20 at 1:38 pm

Cuomo said at a press conference that the hand sanitizer will be made by Corcraft, a company that operates in the state’s prison. The company employs inmates to produce products like household cleaners and tables and chairs.He said they are aiming to make “100,000 gallons” a week.

Cuomo said New York’s hand sanitizer will be “75% alcohol” and added that the smell has a “floral bouquet.”

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Ah, yes. The old prison hooch recipe, repurposed. How do they keep the inmates from guzzling it?

WRT to crashing oil prices, I guess we can safely assume that the Donald has outlived his useful idiotness to Putin and MbS. Why else precipitate an oil war in a US election year?

#226 Doug in London on 03.09.20 at 2:24 pm

Why would anyone buy a large quantity of toilet paper when they could instead spend their money buying DIRT CHEAP oil company stocks now? Is there a future for oil products? I don’t know, but I’ll think about it today when I go out in my GASOLINE fueled car.

#227 jess on 03.09.20 at 2:44 pm

The rules, which apply to regular trading hours only, are as follows:

Level 1: If the S&P 500 drops 7%, trading will pause for 15 minutes.
Level 2: If the S&P 500 declines 13%, trading will again pause for 15 minutes if the drop occurs on or before 3:25 p.m. ET. There will be no halt if the drop happens after that. (This would occur Monday if the S&P falls 386 points).
Level 3: If the S&P 500 falls 20%, trading would halt for the remainder of the day. (This would occur if the S&P falls 594 points).

These circuit breakers have never been triggered in their current form during regular trading hours. The prior circuit breaker system was revamped after it failed to prevent the May 2010 flash crash. The current set of breakers were put into effect in February 2013.
=============================
the fed’s been pumping in since september
Lincoln National- insurer that, according to the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Financial Research, is interconnected to the Wall Street banks as a derivatives counterparty.
down 14.36 percent.
wall street on parade

#228 technical analysis on 03.09.20 at 2:47 pm

#223 Lee on 03.09.20 at 2:16 pm
______________________________

wait till the dividend gets to 10%+

#229 BIG SALES on AISLE 11 on 03.09.20 at 2:58 pm

Yeah baby… who doesn’t love a good sale. Thank-you Putin and MBS.

Blue-eyed sheiks of Albertastan getting creamed.

Anyone want to buy my house?

#230 G on 03.09.20 at 3:00 pm

Local grocery store were I’m hiding out, literal across the street, seemed fully stock last night at 7pm when they close, with everything in stock I think. I didn’t check for scotch, but I assume it there too.
Went down to car around 11pm to bring up something. Family was just getting back from local Costco about 2hr away. They had all kinds of stuff, Told there were lots of people shopping. Good thing gasoline prices are going down I guess.

#231 crazyfox on 03.09.20 at 3:05 pm

#179 calgary rip off on 03.09.20 at 10:02 am

D3 and Zinc. Studies have shown that a poor night’s sleep raises the risk of the flu by 5.5x. Anything that compromises the immune system, Non Alcohol Fatty Liver in more serious stages can do it, high simple carb loads, poor diet, smoking… its never just one thing but if people are looking to take something quick and easy to help the system fight against it, D3 and Zinc are 1 & 2 in choices, especially D3. Vitamin C won’t hurt either.

#232 Spiltbongwater on 03.09.20 at 3:05 pm

Garth, what are your thoughts on Peter McKays rrsp homebuyers proposal? I rent, have $120k in RRSP with $100k in unused contribution room. My wife has similar. We have enough non registered investments to fill unused contribution room. Would it be good to wait and dump 1/2 mil into a Vancouver suburb house? Mr McKay says the RRSP need not be paid back.

This policy is a signature disappointment. More later. – Garth

#233 T-Rev on 03.09.20 at 3:09 pm

Just “re-balanced” the ol’ portfolio. Dropped the fixed from 45pct to 30pct, and moved the money into equities. Will repeat the maneuver if it drops another 10pct.

#234 Ubul on 03.09.20 at 3:12 pm

#218 technical analysis on 03.09.20 at 1:54 pm
#215 Ubul on 03.09.20 at 1:31 pm
___________________

BMO had the most rare of technical formations. a diamond reversal. you almost never see one, and to appear on a monthly chart, over a 3 year period, says this decline has a long way to go.

They will need plenty of TP from BoC. They can start hoarding.

#235 calgaryPhantom on 03.09.20 at 3:16 pm

Your yesterday’s post was “MSB”

you can reuse the same title today by flipping the last two letters

“MBS”

#236 Lee on 03.09.20 at 3:19 pm

#228 technical,

I Regret not doing it in 2009.

#237 Attrition on 03.09.20 at 3:23 pm

Save On Foods, last night. Victoria. Zero TP on the shelves. I couldn’t help but chuckle. Young employee standing there, holding a clip board, notices.

“Ya, I know,” he says.”

“Glad I bought a bunch weeks ago when it went on sale. You guys getting more?”

“We just got a massive order in. About to start bringing it out.”

In other news, tried to buy a Bond ETF just not, before markets close. “Order exceeds volume available at that price” message. First time for that.

#238 PetertheSeparatistfromCalgary on 03.09.20 at 3:44 pm

Wow I thought my comment on what to do if you run out of toilet paper was only a little bit gross but Garth didn’t let it go online. He is getting more strict.

#239 Jager on 03.10.20 at 10:05 am

Italy now being hammered by the Wuhan virus. Hospital system is overrun. Operating at 200% capacity…

https://mobile.twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

If this happens in Canada (Think Toronto) Jr. is finished…

#240 Wow and wow on 03.10.20 at 1:55 pm

Well I need a tummy rub
Very interesting a week ago I called my broker, well I made 10% this year time to sell. Do t time the market he said. I said the markets will panic.
Down she goes lost my 10 percent and another 10 percent, I was even today since Dec 31 but it’s crazy.

I understand Your advice Garth but this is a full panic I believe now the people panicking will do more damage than the oil crunch and Convid 19

Who knows the future but right now there is no bottom.

Looking forward to your post today.