Silent Interlude

DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

.

Let’s drill down through a few more nerd layers with this TI blogger.

Growing up, I was a fan of all things G.I. Joe—action figures, TV shows, movies and, naturally, comic books.

Almost everything related to G.I. Joe was, of course, pure farce, and in more recent years this has continued to be the case. (2013’s G.I. Joe: Retaliation starred Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, for instance, and has a 29% Fresh Tomatoes score.)

However, Marvel Comics’ G.I. Joe issue #21, “Silent Interlude”, somehow managed to break with the franchise’s cheesy tradition and become iconic for its originality. It was an issue without words. No dialogue whatsoever. Just visuals…and almost complete silence. To this day, it’s considered groundbreaking.

Snake Eyes/ silent airdrop

Source: Google images

Needless to say, there has been enough media ‘noise’ surrounding the Coronavirus. Investors have been loudly pumped up with more fear than a teenage girl at Camp Crystal Lake. So, in the spirit of G.I. Joe issue #21, I present a blog post with a minimum of words. Instead, just the most compelling images that I’ve come across in the past month. ‘Nuff said. Enjoy the silence.

Epidemics and the S&P 500: history suggests markets will sort themselves out

Source: FirstTrust, *12-month data not available for June 32019 measles

An overreaction? Week-on-week % change in S&P 500 – only four events since 1940 have resulted in worse sell-offs… and one involved Hitler

Source: Refinitiv

‘Epidemic’ news-cycle lifespans tend to be incredibly short. A few examples:

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments; number of Bloomberg news stories with keyword “Ebola” and “Swine Flu” respectively

Timing the market is pointless: hypothetical investment of $100,000 in the S&P 500 index over the last 20 years (2000-2019) – a few missed good days will cripple performance.

Source: Blackrock. Missed days refers to top-performing days

Fed cut its overnight rate 50 bps earlier this week. Previous instances where the overnight rate was already this low (or close to it) followed by a 50 bp cut each proved to be positive catalysts for the market

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments. Reflects past 30 years of Federal Reserve action.

Finally, the news media will never keep things in perspective. Ignore them.

Source: CD, American College of Cardiology, Turner Investments

Next up: the comment section. Thus ends the silence.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

120 comments ↓

#1 Jimmy on 03.07.20 at 12:09 pm

First!

#2 Yuus bin Haad on 03.07.20 at 12:13 pm

who would be first to dance …

who would be first to kiss …

Under those patio lanterns

#3 Jimmy Zhao on 03.07.20 at 12:15 pm

.

#4 Dogman01 on 03.07.20 at 12:20 pm

Performance Art – very nice.

This blog just keeps on giving.

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.20 at 12:27 pm

Great Charts. Worth 10,000 words.
Well said.

#6 Eh gad on 03.07.20 at 12:39 pm

Who knows where it is going to fall related related to other flu-like viruses……….. but heart disease is not communicable…

#7 Shawn on 03.07.20 at 12:40 pm

Nice charts

#8 Flop... on 03.07.20 at 12:40 pm

Hey Robax,since it’s a chart-fest, I’ll put up this set of five.

One is corona related.

One is a list of the most lucrative airline routes by revenue, maybe soon will begin to take a hit.

Number two on the list is Melbourne to Sydney, an easily drivable route.

Billybob, not posting lately, probably busy setting up the nest in Prague and avoiding the flies currently circling the comment section.

Number 10 on that list by visual capitalist is Vancouver to Toronto.

Countries Total Revenue US$ 2018/19
British Airways JFK-LHR $1,159,126,794
Qantas Airlines MEL-SYD $849,260,322
Emirates LHR-DXB $796,201,645
Singapore Airlines LHR-SIN $735,597,614
United Airlines SFO-EWR $689,371,368
American Airlines LAX-JFK $661,739,368
Qatar Airways LHR-DOH $639,122,609
Cathay Pacific Airways HKG-LHR $604,595,063
Singapore Airlines SYD-SIN $549,711,946
Air Canada YVR-YYZ $541,122,509

O.k, o.k, I know people in Toronto and Vancouver can be sensitive about importance, so let’s even this up .

Also tied at number ten was Toronto to Vancouver?

Maybe it is more lucrative to fly from west to east because the vortex of Toronto being the centre of the universe helps with fuel efficiency…

M45BC

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/top-airline-routes-by-revenue/

https://howmuch.net/articles/visualization-we-wish-we-had-published-feb-2020

#9 Russ on 03.07.20 at 12:45 pm

Share your comment: (from previous post)

#138. technical analysis on 03.07.20 at 12:01 pm

every yield curve inversion since 1967 has resulted in a bear market and recession. 8 of 8 times. a 100% record. this one was no different.
===========================

I seem to recall a bunch of dogs yapping about this inversion thing around the time of the late 2018 equities buying opportunity.

Do you a link for you current analysis?

cheers, R

#10 The real Kip (Ret) on 03.07.20 at 1:01 pm

Didn’t we cover recency bias when it applied to the Canadian housing industry and it was roundly poo pooed?

Now we have Covid19 and all of a sudden it’s going to be ok. Why? Because we are referencing past events and assuming the same pattern will continue. Ain’t gonna happen, big mistake.

#11 Grunt on 03.07.20 at 1:07 pm

G.I. brings back envious childhood memories…1970 in Europe I had Action Man – a licensed GI Joe that side of the pond. My best friend had a talking Action Man with a tag pulled for speech. I had the silent one. I was pathologically jealous.. His grades were better than mine and the girls at school thought him better looking. He got color TV in 1969. We went round to watch Appollo 11. We didn’t get color until sometime in 70 and it was 18″ Trinitron. His was 26″ round the biggest you could get back then.

The biggest jealousy was their car. They got the exact same model but a higher trim and a model year newer. I recall It had electric front windows and electric sunroof. Rare in 1973 Europe on a family car. I wasn’t good enough to ride in it. And ours wasn’t good enough for him to ride in.

Eventually he slipped away in a house move.

#12 Lost...but not leased on 03.07.20 at 1:07 pm

Phyrrzzttt !

#13 GAV on 03.07.20 at 1:07 pm

Excellent oppinion by John Robson in the FP:

“Canada’s new reality after Buffet’s fare-thee-well”.

$20B gone from Frontier, $4B from Energie Saguenay.

The concept of Canada is no longer valid.

#14 Karate man on 03.07.20 at 1:09 pm

How about adding this one to your story….

https://imgur.com/t/coronavirus/v1wfe8o

#15 Highlander on 03.07.20 at 1:13 pm

Nuff said ;)

#16 Dunno on 03.07.20 at 1:15 pm

Would you ask your dentist for financial advice?

Dr Phil?

Why are financial advisors giving advice on pandemic potentials?

Nobody knows the true potential damage coming from the already global move into recession clear last year, lowest interest rates on record, unprecedented global debt, supply chain disruptions, and, all of these integrated with each country moving through a exponential virus impact on its own time.

Just a few weeks ago, what did financial advisors say? And now where is the 10 yr ust rate, S&P 500?

Nobody knows.

The next 2-4 weeks will break many investors and break many advisors.

#17 TurnerNation on 03.07.20 at 1:15 pm

Circling back to yesterday’s comments I believe our elite rulers to be roaring with laughter not.
They got us fighting in the aisles over TP.
Why are people fighting? Only because of something they read on the tele-screens.
Imagine that. No need for sending in army to subjugate and control. No simple tell people on the tele-screens and the people will savage each.other.
Like the hunger games. Predictive, some say.
Overall the take away is non stop chaos in 2020 and it will not end. Into 2021.
All according to their plan, all these stunts.

Wait until 2022-24 when they close up Ontariowe’s nuke plant. Wholly dependent upon Government electrical prices even for your car, prices will skyrocket. Avec carbon taxes natch.
Energy poverty is coming.
Insurance company stocks hit record prices this year. No wonder.
Homes will become unaffordable to insure, heat. Only the elite Party Faithful will afford it.
Into your Kommunist Blok Kando you go.

#18 Christina on 03.07.20 at 1:38 pm

“Enjoy the silence.”
Doug, are you a Depeche Mode fan?

#19 KNOW IT ALL on 03.07.20 at 1:38 pm

SO NOW WHAT??

#20 technical analysis on 03.07.20 at 1:47 pm

#9 Russ on 03.07.20 at 12:45 pm
_______________________________

the yield curve did not invert in 2018. it inverted for the first time in the spring of 2019. the inversion lasted months. temporarily returned to normal, then inverted again earlier this year.

no way the economy gets away without a recession or significant bear market now. the fed will lower rates to zero again. welcome to the new world.

the traditional curve they talk about is the 10 yr and 3 month rate. others focus on the 10 & 2 year rates. doesn’t matter. it’s all the same. you can look it up. plenty of charts out there

#21 Toronto_CA on 03.07.20 at 1:47 pm

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html?fbclid=IwAR3GLCTYhb0lASYb7J1d1dm1uSref_TTvpTmPb50gULh2n4bBu36-XQU-8Y

Excellent article with some good info in it that isn’t hysteria.

“This all suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people, and a potentially devastating one for the old and chronically ill, albeit not nearly as risky as reported. Given the low mortality rate among younger patients with coronavirus—zero in children 10 or younger among hundreds of cases in China, and 0.2-0.4 percent in most healthy nongeriatric adults (and this is still before accounting for what is likely to be a high number of undetected asymptomatic cases)”

#22 akashic record on 03.07.20 at 1:51 pm

Yes, on long enough time range everything is good.
Some people have the time, some don’t.

The cardiovascular deaths don’t overload the health care system. In Italy treating this infection has already. Health officials in the rest of Europe don’t seems to be comforted by cardiovascular deaths charts. They may or may not be G.I. Joe fan.

#23 Sold Out on 03.07.20 at 1:53 pm

#8 Flop… on 03.07.20 at 12:40 pm

Maybe it is more lucrative to fly from west to east because the vortex of Toronto being the centre of the universe helps with fuel efficiency…

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I suspect that you’re not far off with fuel efficiency being the deciding factor, but probably due to the jet stream’s direction of flow rather than Toronto’s magnetic qualities.

#24 Sail Away on 03.07.20 at 1:56 pm

#17 TurnerNation on 03.07.20 at 1:15 pm

Circling back to yesterday’s comments I believe our elite rulers to be roaring with laughter not.
They got us fighting in the aisles over TP.
Why are people fighting? Only because of something they read on the tele-screens.
Imagine that. No need for sending in army to subjugate and control. No simple tell people on the tele-screens and the people will savage each.other.
Like the hunger games. Predictive, some say.

—————————–

Nope. Reactionaries are a small minority, they’re just loud and active.

The average human adult is actually fairly grounded and astute. You won’t find them prepping or Black Friday-ing or in mobs.

#25 G on 03.07.20 at 1:59 pm

Saturday 7th March info/update from
Dr. John Campbell 17min (more proactive steps…)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVTyl7Y4IMo

I’m still hearing Canada is in ok shape! Hopefully it stays that way. Our Health department people are/must be working very hard to keep it that way! (thanks)

Do your bit to help keep the spread as slow as possible when/if more cases turn up.
It will keep life more manageable for all, if someone you know needs a bed.
I hope it’s just a mild cases when/if… For most it is.

No need to panic, it never helps anyway.
Stores are still being restocked all the time.
Warmer sunny days will be here soon.
The world is not ending.
The markets will go back up, probable sooner than you think. Always do. No one know when exactly, but they will.
Washer your hands well with soap and warm water. And stop touching your face!!!

Use common sense, if your older with underlying health issues, avoid crowds/travel to infected areas if you can, CDC Dr. yesterday with the VP.

#26 Flop... on 03.07.20 at 2:07 pm

Watch this nonsense that recently happened in Sydney.

What are they putting in the water nowadays?

I would have been using this distraction to clean up on all the bargains in the ice cream fridge.

All this hysteria gives me the shits…

M45BC

Video captures women’s brawl over toilet paper at Woolworths.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DQv5PWMzI-w

#27 Camille on 03.07.20 at 2:11 pm

Thank you Doug for a balanced review of similar past events.
I just think back to late 2018 and then early 2019. Trying to time that downturn would have had bad results. Even reducing equity exposure then in 2019 did not bring additional returns.

#28 Raging Ranter on 03.07.20 at 2:15 pm

Then certainly the Fed’s and BoC’s panicky cuts this week were impulsive, uncalled for, and ultimately destructive. Unless of course the new raison d’etre of central banks is to prop up asset prices at the expense of their actual mandate.

#29 R on 03.07.20 at 2:32 pm

I like charts too.I found this website tracking the new infections for the Corona virus. It is updated daily by John Hopkins University. It is separated by “China” and “World without China” The concerning graph to me is the rate of new infections in the “World without China”(7th chart down).
The new infections tracked seems to be following the mathematical model, and that model suggest we are now at the”knee” of an exponential growth curve.
It would appear in the next week or two the news surrounding this virus will get louder.

https://elm.nsupdate.info/virus/#world

#30 toilet paper on sale on 03.07.20 at 2:33 pm

So to all the fools ……toilet paper at Costco was on sale today $4 off ha ha to all those who bought last week.

But…… drum roll please
people were buying 4 and 5 bags of 40 rolls, and another lady and I laughed as to the type of persons buying.

Oh well life continues

#31 Flop... on 03.07.20 at 2:34 pm

International Rugby Sevens is in Vancouver today.

They need to move with the times.

It would be funnier if they replaced the rugby ball with a roll of toilet paper, and just chased each other all over the field…

M45BC

#32 Doug Rowat on 03.07.20 at 2:42 pm

#16 Dunno on 03.07.20 at 1:15 pm

Nobody knows.

The next 2-4 weeks will break many investors and break many advisors.

—-

No one knows, but short term “will” be bad. A curious undermining of your own argument.

But, yes, of course, no one knows for certain. One of the reasons we maintain balanced portfolios for our clients.

—Doug

#33 CD on 03.07.20 at 2:50 pm

Coronavirus pandemic. Rate cuts. Extreme market volatility. Definitely a wild couple of weeks for markets.

What your charts effectively illustrate is that there is nothing to gain by letting your emotions dictate your investments and in turn, making erratic decisions that will impact your potential for long-term gains. Instead, despite fears, investors can benefit from “vaping out” and letting their advisors dictate their portfolio activity. It is, after all, the reason why you pay them in the first place.

“Growing up, I was a fan of all things G.I. Joe—action figures, TV shows, movies and, naturally, comic books”

“Investors have been loudly pumped up with more fear than a teenage girl at Camp Crystal Lake.”

“‘Nuff said. Enjoy the silence.”

#34 WUL on 03.07.20 at 3:02 pm

I have not been in a grocery store in Fort Mac of late but am advised that there has been a run on hand sanitizer and toilet paper. I’ll shop today and have a look see.

Strange. The far greater threat to people here is US $32 / bbl heavy oil blend WCS.

#35 Brumbled Potatoes on 03.07.20 at 3:47 pm

I don’t know Doug, I think we’re going to see some real economic damage from Covid-19. Have you seen the satellite images of air pollution in northern China? I think it’s reasonable to say there is more than just correlation between the clear skies and economic output. Perhaps in other parts of the world soon too. There’s going to be a lot of working from home, cancelled travel, cancelled public events, empty shopping malls, empty restaurants, etc. We’ll see what the output numbers look like in a few months. A picture is worth a thousand words…
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china

#36 Freepermiller on 03.07.20 at 3:48 pm

Epidemics vs sp500 chart is remarkably similar to the charts that explain how pandemics slowly evolve into expotenial infections. 80-90 ties- few cases here and there. 2000 one cluster. 2009 another cluster and 2020. Boom expotential number of infections.

#37 COVFEFE-19 on 03.07.20 at 4:07 pm

“The far greater threat to people here is US $32 / bbl heavy oil blend WCS.”

KSA just cut prices by $7/bbl. Do you guys price match?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/saudi-aramco-slashes-crude-prices-kicking-off-price-war

#38 Yukon Elvis on 03.07.20 at 4:12 pm

I thought the GI Joe action figure was pretty boring. I had more fun with the GI Jane doll.

#39 DON on 03.07.20 at 4:31 pm

#33 WUL on 03.07.20 at 3:02 pm

I have not been in a grocery store in Fort Mac of late but am advised that there has been a run on hand sanitizer and toilet paper. I’ll shop today and have a look see.

Strange. The far greater threat to people here is US $32 / bbl heavy oil blend WCS.
****************

I was thinking the same thing when I read that Putin won’t support OPECs production cuts. The US is being rather quiet as they increase production and market share.

As for toilet paper – I don’t see any empty shelves, I see sales every where though, even on toilet paper. It was on for cheap. I would have bought a bunch for that price, but decided not to. (I stood there for a bit thinking). I could have bought twelve boxes of condoms, etc) and received less looks then buying 12 rolls of toilet paper.

#40 Tony on 03.07.20 at 4:47 pm

Re: #28 Raging Ranter on 03.07.20 at 2:15 pm

Likely to combat deflation but in an ageing society with a falling birthrate it actually will cause more deflation instead of less deflation.

#41 Flop... on 03.07.20 at 5:05 pm

Hey WULLY, if this thing continues, I sense another business partnership opportunity.

Operations, storage and logistics, I’ll leave up to you, I’m just the hype man.

Close your eyes and imagine.

Taiga Tundra Toilet Paper.

1067 ply.

So rough, it’ll make your bum smooth…

M45BC

#42 Ronaldo on 03.07.20 at 5:06 pm

George had all this virus thingy figured out long ago. Listen and laugh.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=george+carlin+and+germs+utube

#43 Ronaldo on 03.07.20 at 5:17 pm

#26 Flop

All this hysteria gives me the shits…
—————————————————-
In that case I hope you stocked up on TT. I needed a good chuckle.

#44 Toiletpaper Apocalypse 2020 on 03.07.20 at 5:25 pm

Firing up the welding torches in northern italy…..
I wonder if the boss will let ye hunker down in the loonieburg bunker complex

#45 Russ on 03.07.20 at 5:38 pm

technical analysis on 03.07.20 at 1:47 pm

#9 Russ on 03.07.20 at 12:45 pm
I seem to recall a bunch of dogs yapping about this inversion thing around the time of the late 2018 equities buying opportunity.
_______________________________

the yield curve did not invert in 2018. it inverted for the first time in the spring of 2019. the inversion lasted months. temporarily returned to normal, then inverted again earlier this year.

no way the economy gets away without a recession or significant bear market now. the fed will lower rates to zero again. welcome to the new world.

the traditional curve they talk about is the 10 yr and 3 month rate. others focus on the 10 & 2 year rates. doesn’t matter. it’s all the same. you can look it up. plenty of charts out there
===================================

Thanks T A,

So we could be like last time where there is a temporary return to normal, but this time followed by a Trump election and then the inverted yield thing again and recession in a year, year & a half or two maybe…

It may be better to think that an inversion happens before each recession but a recession doesn’t happen after every inversion.
Spring of 2019 supports this n’est pas?

Cheers, R

#46 Italia on 03.07.20 at 5:47 pm

Sure the markets will go on….. but this is really going to hit the elderly.

Full lockdown in northern italy……China showed the way…. coming everywhere….

1,247 new cases and 36 new deaths in Italy[source]
Percentage of deaths by age group:
90+ years old: 6% of deaths
80 – 89 years old: 42% of deaths
70 – 79 years old: 35% of deaths
60 – 69 years old: 16% of deaths

#47 Tbone on 03.07.20 at 5:50 pm

Was in metro store today and they have TP in stock and on sale … 3 ply no less and they got a shitload of it .
Couldn’t resist a sale so I picked some up , you know , just in case

#48 Waldguy on 03.07.20 at 5:52 pm

So if Covid-19 wipes out a bunch of seniors, their estates get transferred to the juniors who go on a spending spree, and voila: Wealth transfer = stimulation of economy — in a year or so anyway. Good for the travel industry and maybe a few invest in the market. Just a thought.

#49 I liked playing with ... on 03.07.20 at 6:18 pm

G.I. Jane.

#50 crazyfox on 03.07.20 at 6:39 pm

“Si vis pacem, para bellum”
If you want peace, prepare for war.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healthcare-coronavirus-italy/italy-set-to-lock-down-lombardy-after-coronavirus-jump-idUSKBN20U0RZ

Lombardy, Italy has been placed under lock down. Only emergency can come and go there now. Lombardy generated 381 billion Euros in 2017 with a population of 10 million. As of today, 15 million Italians are under lock down. If we look at the role Italy has played in the world wide spread of COVID-19, we see that the role has been significant. Italy was arguably slow to react to the virus and look at where they are now:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy

no doubt, we will continue to see this theme play out in other nations and cities in the future. Governments that are slow to react, will pay for it later. Essentially, governments need to be proactive vs reactive, or risk becoming the next Wuhan. Or Lombardy and on it goes.

Numbers out of South Korea appear to be stabilizing as SK uses the same government tracking app China used to control their epidemic. The use of the same government app combined with temp scans, masks, in home quarantines & lock downs of major infected areas is working. This looks to be the standard for getting control of this thing, most likely the proactive standard as well. It may well be the only standard that ensures some kind of economic confidence going forward into 2021.

Lets think about that.

#51 david prokop on 03.07.20 at 6:56 pm

Like Pavlov dogs, financial advisers have been trained for over a decade to buy every dip, because in few months markets will be higher. Maybe this time will be no different, but one of these days markets will go down, then they will go down some more and they won’t come back for a long time. I find it irresponsible not to consider that this is possible given what is happening around the globe

#52 TurnerNation on 03.07.20 at 7:30 pm

#24 Sail Away

“Nope. Reactionaries are a small minority, they’re just loud and active.”

….likes the ones which shut down part of this country’s rail supply chain for weeks, endangering the supplies for millions of people. And the government let this minority mob rule the rails? Like that?
ALL EVeryone is talking about is Covid. In the elevators, lunchrooms, local eateries. CP24 news is making every story about it. People are prepping, middle class people I know.

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.20 at 7:45 pm

@#47 Waldoguy
“So if Covid-19 wipes out a bunch of seniors, their estates get transferred to the juniors who go on a spending spree, and voila: Wealth transfer = stimulation of economy — in a year or so anyway. Good for the travel industry and maybe a few invest in the market. Just a thought.”
+++++

Just so long as its people dying needlessly and not pets….the SPCA will approve.

#54 People Panic on 03.07.20 at 7:53 pm

The panic going on does seem a little bit of an over reaction. For example if we assume the fatality rate for Covid is 3.3% (3,300/100,000) which is quite a bit higher than the flu at about 0.14% (2008, US), there will certainly be a lot of bodies piling up. But the likelihood is that the number of cases is actually much higher than reported because of the 14 day incubation period this thing has and the lack of available test kits. Most people who have it probably don’t know because they aren’t showing any symptoms yet. So let’s assume the eventual fatality rate will migrate down to 1.5%. That’s still pretty horrific but not double the number of people that die every year from other causes. (0.8%, US)

The base fatality rate and the Covid fatality rate will not be precisely cumulative. For example if every single person in the US were to catch it, and 1.5% of them died, 0.8% of them would have died that year anyway, so the net effect is an increase of 0.7% in the overall fatality rate. Still horrific by any measure but not say worse than a war or a famine. But the overall fatality rate will be higher than 1.5% because some of the people who are on their way to the crematorium will have died of other causes before they can catch the virus, so we could be looking at an overall fatality rate from all causes at 2% instead of the normal 0.8%.

Will a fatality rate of 2% for 2020 be a catastrophe? Yes it will be. It is an unprecedented number outside of war and famine. But remember I assumed everyone will catch it by year end. That probably won’t happen as containment efforts step up, and it doesn’t ever happen for the common flu, so we should expect the numbers to be much lower. However it is still a cause for great concern and if the cases continue to multiply you can expect quarantines in your area. But hording toilet paper?

I suppose you need some toilet paper if you are forced to stay at home for 14-24 days but be reasonable. What is more important is to look at what food you have in the pantry and add non-perishables to your existing stocks until you have a 14-24 day supply. That’s all you need. Drinking water seems to be a go-to item as well but be reasonable there too as the taps probably won’t go dry. Cough medicine is a good item to have as well but again be reasonable, you can only take so much of that stuff. If you don’t have any buy a bottle per person (max) but leave the rest for someone else, you won’t use anything beyond that.

Some people have come up with the idea that if they get quarantined they can just have food delivered. Walmart and Amazon have both already stated that this is a stupid idea because they don’t have the staff to do it if a large increase in home delivery requests occurs. Costco and Walmart are already reporting in some areas that they can’t even restock the shelves fast enough due to lack of staff. But this will be temporary, I don’t think the guy who bought 8 packs of toilet paper yesterday will be needing any more for some time to come.

So should you prepare (if you haven’t already)? I say unequivocally yes, but you should have been prepared for an ice storm or lengthy power outage or whatever already. If so you may not have to do anything. If you haven’t, look around the pantry and see what you already have. There might be more packs of KD languishing in there than you suppose. Then prep smart, adding to your supplies to somewhere between 14-24 days. And include perishable items you already have in the calculation, just remember to eat them first.

But don’t rush down to Costco and buy the last 8 bags of toilet paper. That’s panic and hording, not planning.

Oh and don’t forget the animals. But again don’t hoard. I prep for my animals the same way I prep for toilet paper consumption. I always have one bag of dog food in the bin (the open bag) and one on the shelf. When the bin runs empty and I have to open the bag on the shelf to refill it, I buy another to replace it. And that is all you need to do to be prepared for a 24 day quarantine (or whatever). Same with toilet paper. One open bag and one on the shelf is lots.

It is human nature that panic leads to hoarding, but when thought through it doesn’t make much sense. Decide what the worst case scenario is, what is required to get through it, what you already have and thus how much more you need, and then buy only that.

And prioritize! People buying 8 bags of toilet paper but neglecting to buy one bag of dog food are clearly out of their minds. You can eat the dog food if you have to.

#55 The 17th century it ain't on 03.07.20 at 8:00 pm

And we are the descendants that survived the plague?

Newton quarantined himself and gave the world F=ma…. and this world gives us…..

#diaperdon versus #toiletpaperapocalypse

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.20 at 8:01 pm

From the
“If they didnt have bad luck they wouldnt have any luck at all…”
Dept.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-hotel-collapse/seventy-trapped-after-chinese-coronavirus-quarantine-hotel-collapses-more-than-half-rescued-idUSKBN20U0LW

#57 John in Mtl on 03.07.20 at 8:16 pm

Covid-19 kills mostly older folks, especially those with existing health issues…

What better way to solve a global dilemma of dwindling resources, mounting pollution, building more expensive infrastructure to service everybody…
the underfunded pension funds “problem”, the massive costs of socialised medecine, the stalling of the economy because millions of baby boomers are retiring en masse; than to kill off the old, the sick, the “unproductives” of societies?

Also… what better way to get rid of “problem” people – the sick, the addicts, the deviants and those who don’t take care of themselves?

What better way to unlock all that wealth and transfer it now to the current younger generations and their kids, instead of slowly over 20-30 years?

Then again, it could also just be Gaia’s way to reduce the population and restore some balance to the planet…

#58 Hookshott on 03.07.20 at 8:17 pm

Another interesting chart….those preferred just haven’t been doing it:

3-6-mkts_orig.jpg

#59 Irish Stew on 03.07.20 at 8:38 pm

Destro and Cobra Commander would be proud!

#60 Joe on 03.07.20 at 8:40 pm

Excellent Perspective

Having watched alot of news lately, I have to say CTV and CBC are terrible

#61 Doug Rowat on 03.07.20 at 8:55 pm

#50 david prokop on 03.07.20 at 6:56 pm

Like Pavlov dogs, financial advisers have been trained for over a decade to buy every dip…but one of these days markets will go down, then they will go down some more and they won’t come back for a long time. I find it irresponsible not to consider that this is possible…

Of course it’s possible, it’s just unlikely. Gaze at that chart of the rolling 10-year S&P 500 returns:

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2019/05/04/luck-is-for-rabbits/

Market upside isn’t a certainty, but I will take those odds all day long. And, yes, adding money on the dips is a sound strategy.

And if you don’t like the volatility of the S&P 500, own a balanced portfolio–then your odds of earning a profit over 10 years are even higher.

Now, do I hear a bell?

–Doug

#62 Statistics on 03.07.20 at 8:56 pm

Here’s why you should stop panicking and why governments need to make this front line news

So we now have 6 new cases in BC bringing the total to 27 I believe and guess what 19 have been sent home. Is this not like okay we really only have 8 cases. So why are we not reporting cured and gone home. Makes me feel better that 19 people are virus free. What do you think?

#63 technical analysis on 03.07.20 at 8:58 pm

#44 Russ on 03.07.20 at 5:38 pm
__________________________________

a recession happens after every inversion. sometimes they are immediate, like in 1973 (inversion in March, brutal recession started November) sometimes, it can take 12-18 months like in 2007-9 (inversion started in early 2006 and persisted until mid 2007, brutal recession started Dec 2007)

we inverted in Spring 2019, and that continued for 6 months. the recession is now upon us. it’s less than 12 months since the inversion. completely normal.

8 for 8 since 1968.

#64 Doug t on 03.07.20 at 9:01 pm

By the end of next week the world is going to be a sh*t load of CRAZY- it’s getting akin to the radio broadcast The war of the worlds way back when – the human race sucks and we are constantly proving it

#65 XcellentPat on 03.07.20 at 9:02 pm

Mass hysteria in the age of social media. Add HFT and the algos and you get these fast drops. That weekly drop chart you posted really tells the story.

Thing is there’s V shaped recoveries as well from these same things

#66 Stylite on 03.07.20 at 9:06 pm

Great perspective. God bless this blog!

#67 Canadian Moose on 03.07.20 at 9:07 pm

“Sound of Silence”, by Disturbed. That one rocks!

Thoughts from the Hinterland

#68 Ronaldo on 03.07.20 at 9:23 pm

XEG Now there’s a real dog. How much lower will it go?

https://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=xeg

#69 Big Fissure Man on 03.07.20 at 9:44 pm

Video captures women’s brawl over toilet paper at Woolworths.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DQv5PWMzI-w

—————————————

I don’t understand these people fighting over toilet paper. I gave up on TP in favour of other methods a few years ago, and I have never felt better. Look it up and give it a try.

#70 Lambchop on 03.07.20 at 10:18 pm

I’m not trying to spread panic, I think people are over-reacting, just wanted to share my observation of the world.
I always go shopping for the entire week, every Saturday morning at 7 because I like to avoid crowds as a rule.

In the 20 years that I have been doing this, the average amount of people I see in the store is roughly 20, and half of those are restocking shelves.
Last week there were about 60.

This week, hundreds. Almost every single person had minimum 1 package of TP, most had multiples. Same for bottled water, cans of food and paper towels.

The store was littered with pallets of TP, water and paper towels, there was even one of TP in the meat section.
The canned food aisle was a disaster. They aren’t even stocking the shelves anymore, just leaving stacks of cases in the aisle on the floor.

It was weird, there was this feeling of urgency about the whole thing, but it was interesting to see what people prioritize. It’s not food, for some reason I can’t fathom.

Anyway, just my observations about the panic that is clearly building in the general public. I don’t live in a city, but a town of just over 20,000.

Also, they kept bringing fresh pallets out from the back of the store, so there doesn’t seem to be a shortage of TP…no need to punch anyone in the face about it.

#71 Interstellar Old Yeller on 03.07.20 at 10:46 pm

Love the “silent blog post” concept!

As for comics, more recently, Batman and Robin #18 (May 2013) was powerfully evocative with no dialogue or sound effects. Great issue.

#72 Fortune500 on 03.07.20 at 10:56 pm

I was more of a He-Man fan myself…

While I am generally in agreement, I think the counterargument I have heard that has merit is that, even though the media and politicians of the world are overreacting, that does not stop the supply-chain disruption and the slowdown that comes as people stop traveling, going out, shopping etc due to this ‘unrealistic’ fear. I do not remember H1N1, SARS or Zika causing this much real disruption.

The other issue is the fact that we are 10+ years in to a bull market that has mainly been sustaining itself on cheap credit and many investors were already feeling like this was the end of a good run. Even if things manage to go back up, a recession soon is likely, so just how much are they going to miss from being out?

You and I know the answer to that, but this is the argument.

#73 Ontario's Left Coast on 03.07.20 at 11:04 pm

The world needs to read what has been written here. This selloff is nothing short of a gift to astute, long-term investors interested in quality plays that have been unnecessarily beaten down. Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.

#74 Ed on 03.08.20 at 12:03 am

Doug,
You only looking the last 10 years (beginning of the bullmarket), so I tell you are incorrect.
The experts have been pushing the idea of buying for dividend. After this drop, just to break-even it would take 5 years of dividends post taxes to maintain ones capital. Dividend investing is a fools game at market highs and far to many investors have now been trapped.

#75 Not So New guy on 03.08.20 at 12:10 am

How does the saying go?

When your neighbor loses his job it is a recession.
When you lose your job it is a depression.

I think the same theory applies to pandemics. It’s not a crisis until you actually get it and/or it kills you

#76 SoggyShorts on 03.08.20 at 1:03 am

#61 technical analysis on 03.07.20 at 8:58 pm
#44 Russ on 03.07.20 at 5:38 pm
__________________________________

a recession happens after every inversion. sometimes they are immediate, like in 1973 (inversion in March, brutal recession started November) sometimes, it can take 12-18 months like in 2007-9 (inversion started in early 2006 and persisted until mid 2007, brutal recession started Dec 2007)

we inverted in Spring 2019, and that continued for 6 months. the recession is now upon us. it’s less than 12 months since the inversion. completely normal.

8 for 8 since 1968
*****
But how useful is that really?
Are you supposed to pull out 180 days after inversions? 365? If a bear comes in such a wide variety of times arent you VERY likely to miss some of those essential up days that make or break a portfolio by reacting to inversions?

Also didnt it invert in 1965, 1995 , and 1998 without recession?
That would mean it predicted 10 of the last 7, no?

I mean you might say that every time a dog bit you it barked first, but it barks more often than it bites.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/frankarmstrong/2019/06/30/the-inverted-yield-curve-facts-and-fictions/#3c2781a86496

#77 The Real Mark on 03.08.20 at 1:18 am

Remember when posters routinely made fun of me for suggesting that the future was highly deflationary? And that the Bank of Canada and Fed shouldn’t have raised rates, and probably were behind the curve in cutting them?

Gold miners….they should be exploding in profitability at this point, as the output not only is appreciating quite nicely, but input costs are declining quite rapidly.

When that gets reflected in stock prices is anyone’s guess, but Canada may very well do quite all right here.

#78 Darren de Bober on 03.08.20 at 3:08 am

Here’s some good chart facts to add to your “Collection”.

https://on.mktw.net/2PU0850

I’m not buying yet, but I will. More importantly, I haven’t sold or run to the “safety” of bonds. You can’t have both , especially as with your chart showing that missing only ten days in ten years makes bond holding a tremendous drag on long term performance vis a vis opportunity cost losses compounded over time.

#79 Steven Rowlandson on 03.08.20 at 7:18 am

If people are freaking out about Covid 19 which can’t compete with the flu they will totally lose it if the Bubonic plague comes to town.

#80 Kool Aid on 03.08.20 at 8:12 am

#61.

I like your comment, I wish Garth would splurge on a like button.
————————————————————————————————

The behavioural actions during this crisis are no different than any other time, the economic consequences of Covid19 may be the exception.

These charts did not assuage my fear level.

Oh boy, KSA just escalated a crude price war. Canadian oil patch corporate bond alert, will fixed income be the new subprime? Can the fixed income market crash?

Fear is a powerful emotion, fear based behaviour is difficult to control, it’s a cognitive force field.

Best to all during these extraordinary times.

#81 Andrew on 03.08.20 at 8:37 am

#50 Doug

Annual return of buying the dip in equities:

1929-1946 = -2.1%

1947-1963 = -8.1%

1964-1983 = -14.5%

1984-2007 = +2.5%

2007-2019 = +9.8%

60/40 did very well over this time though, buying the dip in equities and you will go bankrupt without bonds. People are going to learn a hard lesson over the coming years that are all equity like many I know personally.

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.20 at 9:34 am

@#71 Interstellar
“with no dialogue or sound effects.”
++++

Evocative? or the writers were on strike.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.20 at 9:37 am

@#75 Not so new
“I think the same theory applies to pandemics. It’s not a crisis until you actually get it and/or it kills you”
++++

Well it only happens once…..but apparently it hurts the whole time your dying.

#84 COVFEFE-19 on 03.08.20 at 9:38 am

“If a bear comes in such a wide variety of times arent you VERY likely to miss some of those essential up days that make or break a portfolio by reacting to inversions?”

Now that the volatility of the last few weeks is fresh in everyone’s mind, let’s think about big up days in the market, and big down days. Notice anything? They’re often really close together — one follows another as panicky investors react to news and try to guess where things go next.

Saying “if you only missed the five biggest up days” while including all the likely-adjacent biggest down days is a completely unrealistic picture of how ANYONE’S investing returns could possibly look. To miss exactly the biggest up days without missing any of the nearby biggest down days is to be the unluckiest investor alive. Nobody could trade that badly if they tried.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.20 at 9:39 am

@#77 Marky The Mark
“Remember when posters routinely made fun of me for suggesting that the future was highly deflationary?”
++++

How was your sabbatical in Japan?

#86 Doug Rowat on 03.08.20 at 9:54 am

#81 Andrew on 03.08.20 at 8:37 am
#50 Doug

Annual return of buying the dip in equities:

Your data is incorrect or at least you’re presenting it unclearly. You going to source all this?

Don’t crunch 100 years of index data on Sunday mornings is my motto.

My coffee is delicious, btw.

–Doug

#87 techincal anaysis on 03.08.20 at 10:01 am

#77 The Real Mark on 03.08.20 at 1:18 am
____________________________________

this will be the equivalent of the 1930’s for gold miners.

#88 Renter's Revenge! on 03.08.20 at 10:02 am

#74 Ed on 03.08.20 at 12:03 am

People trot out this type of comment every time the market drops. Then when the market goes up they brag that they got both dividends and capital gains. The market going up and down is part of investing. Getting dividends is also part of investing. They don’t really have much to do with each other. It’s better to think of them as two separate things.

Even when investing for capital gains the annual volatility is greater than the gains sometimes. It doesn’t stop people from investing though. It’s just part of the fun!

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.20 at 10:04 am

On International Women’s Day we have this story out of Afghanistan

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-womens-day-afghanistan/even-men-now-cheer-me-on-kabul-women-sell-burgers-in-solar-powered-foodcarts-idUSKBN20V07B

“The Taliban now promise not to stop women from working….”

And this story from Kyrgystan

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-womens-day-kyrgyzstan-protests/womens-rights-activists-attacked-then-detained-in-kyrgyzstan-idUSKBN20V0GT

Canada’s problems dont seem so bad in comparison.
We just need a leader that can actually lead…

#90 Renter's Revenge! on 03.08.20 at 10:06 am

#84 COVFEFE-19 on 03.08.20 at 9:38 am

It’s easy. Just sell after the market crashes and wait for it to go back up before buying back in. Voila, you’ve just screwed yourself over!

#91 technical analysis on 03.08.20 at 10:11 am

#76 SoggyShorts on 03.08.20 at 1:03 am
__________________________________

the yield curve did NOT invert in 1995, nor did it invert in 1998 . try using actual data, instead of some writer

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M

“But how useful is that really?”

that’s up to you. go back and do some research. tighten your stops. find a methodology that works. not too hard. if it helps you miss the 40% & 50% declines in the market, it’d say it’s pretty useful.

#92 Renter's Revenge! on 03.08.20 at 10:13 am

#68 Ronaldo on 03.07.20 at 9:23 pm

There’s has been an absolutely astounding amount of capital destruction in that sector due to a combination of poor planning and government policies. I could be wrong about this, but I think even the number of holdings in that ETF has dropped by half over the last 6 or 7 years.

#93 SOMETHINGS UP on 03.08.20 at 10:19 am

It’s ALL relative based off your perception of the underlying situation.

Heartattacks and the flu kill thousands more every year.

If some say the VIRUS isn’t a big deal then WHY are the governments, scientists, doctors, and the media making it one?

Whats on their agenda?

What are they trying to accomplish?

What is up?

Somethings up?

#94 Doug Rowat on 03.08.20 at 10:37 am

#84 COVFEFE-19 on 03.08.20 at 9:38 am

Saying “if you only missed the five biggest up days” while including all the likely-adjacent biggest down days is a completely unrealistic picture of how ANYONE’S investing returns could possibly look.

Of course, bundled in there would be missed bad days. But it’s the frequency of the good days and the magnitude of their returns.

I recently crunched the numbers for the S&P 500 over the past 30 years. There are 15% more positive days overall. And the very best days? They tend to be better than the very worst days on average.

Over time, you end up with a meaningful advantage to remain in the market versus sitting on the sidelines.

And, from experience, no client goes to cash for a month or two. Once they’re in cash, we’ve lost them. Only after the market has significantly rallied will they then be comfortable enough to get back in. But by then the best upside has passed them by.

–Doug

#95 oh bouy on 03.08.20 at 11:13 am

@#70 Lambchop on 03.07.20 at 10:18 pm
I’m not trying to spread panic, I think people are over-reacting, just wanted to share my observation of the world.
I always go shopping for the entire week, every Saturday morning at 7 because I like to avoid crowds as a rule.
________________________________________

or you could do your order on line.
grocery store will pick it and load it into your vehicle.

#96 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 11:34 am

If you haven’t read this before, it may be the most useful hour of your life.

Charlie Munger on The Psychology of Human Misjudgement

https://el2.convertkit-mail4.com/c/wvupg8z5glbghxn8detl/mkh7h5h7qldxv7/aHR0cHM6Ly9mcy5ibG9nL2dyZWF0LXRhbGtzL3BzeWNob2xvZ3ktaHVtYW4tbWlzanVkZ21lbnQv

#97 Harley Specter on 03.08.20 at 11:44 am

BANNED

#98 Dolce Vita on 03.08.20 at 11:47 am

Hey there GI Joe, try this chart instead:

https://imgur.com/QSh6QKY

No more speculation, this morning here in Italia the economic engine of the country (Lombardia, Veneto, etc.) under quarantine, 16 million souls:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238

1 G7 economy down, 6 to go.

With the cavalier attitude I see on Cdn. News as of late about COVID (and with a healthcare system ranked in the #30’s according to WHO, including the US, with Italia’s at #2) all I will say is this:

Pray for a miracle Canada. Show the World you can bypass it.

The Province of Pordenone where I live just had its 1st 2 cases yesterday (we had a good run).

Italian news yesterday about France & Germany underreporting COVID cases to save their GDP…in the last 2 days their cases have doubled to tripled. I suppose when the caskets start to pile up and the hospitals are inundated, somebody was bound to notice.

Careful the same does not happen in Canada with the underreporting.

Having said that and our soon to tank economy here in Italia, I am proud of Gov Italia:

They care more about the well being of their people than money.

We’ll see if Canada can say the same.

For the record I have been tracking the outbreak since the beginning here in Italia, the latest as of last night:

https://imgur.com/3pR4S91

A few days prior to Feb. 21, Italia had only 1 case.

Use the above line chart to track what your outbreak will likely look like, day by day, except divide by 2 for the population quotient.

This morning went to my local supermarket and mercifully:

1. Ass wipe in plentiful supply.
2. Hand sanitizer in plentiful supply.
3. Pasta in plentiful supply (unlike the BS apocalyptic Left of Stalin US & Cdn MSM showed in “a” store in Milano a few weeks back),
4. No Costco genius shoppers in view (Grazie Dio), and,

it was a fine day here in Pordenone, sunny, 16 deg C or so (note we are wearing parkas…we have high temp coolant in our veins not ethylene glycol as in Canada):

https://i.imgur.com/rjk1QsM.jpg

Ciao d’Italia.

#99 Dolce Vita on 03.08.20 at 12:01 pm

PS:

For the curious and those of you musing about self-preservation, there is an excellent YouTube channel by a Doc that seems to know what he is talking about (I am not a Doc but he views impressive to me) called MedCram.

Update 31 talks about the “L” type COVID which is the worst type thus far and of course that which Italia has (the Chinese had the “S” type, more forgiving for want of better words):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YI2tOoVVpk

He also tells you which are the efficacious hand sanitizers.

There is also another Episode where he shows recent data that Vitamin D helps reduce the contagion (now watch the Vitamin D Costco aisle laid bare). Also, HIV antivirals seem to have the same effect.

Just a heads up for you Canada.

Ciao d’Italia.

#100 Deplorable Superspreader Rallies on 03.08.20 at 12:10 pm

Making viruses great again.

#101 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 12:15 pm

Dolce, good to have you back! You were missed.

#102 Penny Henny on 03.08.20 at 12:21 pm

#87 techincal anaysis on 03.08.20 at 10:01 am
#77 The Real Mark on 03.08.20 at 1:18 am
____________________________________

this will be the equivalent of the 1930’s for gold miners.

////////////////

Please elaborate

#103 The Flying Foxtrot on 03.08.20 at 12:29 pm

Well Doug – the cat’s out of the bag. Rumour has it that Turner Investments is hosting their annual G.I. Joe party. I say we dress Garth up as the Baroness and see how it goes.

Great post by the way!

#104 Doug Rowat on 03.08.20 at 12:36 pm

#94 Doug Rowat on 03.08.20 at 10:37 am
#84 COVFEFE-19 on 03.08.20 at 9:38 am

They tend to be better than the very worst days on average.

—-

* by magnitude

More coffee for me.

—Doug

#105 Dolce Vita on 03.08.20 at 12:36 pm

One last post, do not underestimate the quarantine of most of N. Italy. That area is the 2nd largest industrial complex in all of Europe, 2nd only to Germany (despite British pluck and Gallic arrogance to the contrary, that is a fact).

It is tantamount to the entire Golden Horseshoe of Canada + any other bits that contribute significantly to GDP being under quarantine.

Crippling to say the least economically. Italia has been flirting with recession for the past 8 years, on and off, well now a recession here is a given.

I was dumbfounded, left speechless this morning when I read the Italian dailes (and BBC) about what had just happened.

One thing, I have learned in the last day (and the last few) that Italians have a steely resolve and are calm beyond the word itself in the face of what is happening all around them. We are not histrionic. In fact this morning here in Pordenone it was business as usual, no hoarding at the Supermarket; though, noticeably fewer people out and about. You can hardly blame them.

My relatives managed to calm “this is all new to me histrionic expat Canadian, we’ll all be killed” this morning. They are resilient to say the least, in fact, one of them posted this humorous image on my WhatsApp group called “I Cugini” (the cousins):

https://i.imgur.com/u4xc2GR.jpg

Which translates to “The first time in history that the North is at home and the South is working.”

A time immemorial dig here in Italia about the prosperous hard working North trash talking the South and its populace that would rather live off the dole. Poppycock to be sure as I have travelled all 20 Regions of this amazing country, indeed it is IL BEL PAESE. Left to my druthers I would live in S. Italia instead but alas, you go where the heart is and in Italia that is:

La Familia

here in Pordenone for me.

Canada:

1. Challenge you Gov, get them to get off their sanctimonious, thumb your nose at countries like Italia and China, because what has happened here in Italia can very easily happen in Canada…do not take no for answer, David Glasgow Farragut had the right stuff, a good role model if you were to ask me.

2. Stay at home Canada. Go out only when necessary (shopping for me).

This too shall pass. Italia at least 28 centuries old, we have been thru a lot worse, a lot worse.

Take heart in this post and do not take no for answer from your Gove. Ensòure Gov Canada cares more about its people than money.

Without the people, there is no econonmy.

As usual with an added twist:

Bacconi e ciao d’Italia.

—————————————–

And no, Enfant Terrible Dolce Vita has NOT returned to the GF fold; rather, Dolce Vita cares about his country of birth and wants to ensure his fellow Cdn citizens are well informed about what is happening in Italia (harbinger)…and yes, I still love you Canada, more than you can imagine.

Viva l’Italia e Viva il Canada.

#106 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 12:49 pm

Re: Apocalypse preparation

Sleep in
Buy nothing
Visit friends and family
…yawn… have a nap
Enjoy dinner
Walk dogs
TV and sleep

Repeat as needed

#107 DON on 03.08.20 at 12:50 pm

#93 SOMETHINGS UP on 03.08.20 at 10:19 am

It’s ALL relative based off your perception of the underlying situation.

Heartattacks and the flu kill thousands more every year.

If some say the VIRUS isn’t a big deal then WHY are the governments, scientists, doctors, and the media making it one?

Whats on their agenda?

What are they trying to accomplish?

What is up?

Somethings up?
**************

Scape goat for the world finances hitting the fan?

#108 DON on 03.08.20 at 12:58 pm

Nice to hear from you Dolce.

Take care and yes something isn’t right here?

#109 SmarterSquirrel on 03.08.20 at 1:01 pm

Doug given the pattern we have seen playout in China and South Korea, Japan and now Italy of locking down populations or asking populations to stay home, isn’t it apparent that the US and Canada are heading in the same direction? And when we have closed down theatres, professional sports stop, gatherings at large events are banned and movement of people is curtailed, it will impact the economy. Most businesses will suffer and it’s highly likely that markets will decline further. None of your charts showed what happened to economies in the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919.

It seems everyone says you can’t time the market, but you can definitely time a pandemic, especially one that gave you a warning by starting in China about two months ago. I started selling in January and was 95% in cash by 10:30am Feb 24. Now I’ll wait for peak covid19 cases in the US and Canada and when the cases start to decline I’ll invest back in the market.

By going to cash when I did, I’ve already avoided an -11.2% drop in the value of my portfolio. I’ll likely be able to deploy cash back into the very same stocks I owned at much lower valuations, thereby increasing the number of stock and dividends I collect.

I’ve never timed the market. I’ve been fully invested for 10 years straight. This is the first time I went to cash. But when you see a pandemic headed straight for you, you get out of the way.

If your portfolio declined 11.2% when equities fell 15% you are, apparently, not such a smart squirrel. And now you’re a market timer. – Garth

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.20 at 1:12 pm

@#98 Dolce
“With the cavalier attitude I see on Cdn. News as of late about COVID (and with a healthcare system ranked in the #30’s according to WHO”
++++

Yep, Canadians smug assertions that “our healthcare is #1” is about to get a Covid slap in the face.

I can just see the municipal and provincial politicians here literally and figuratively washing their hands of the virus and any responsibility …. starting to panic and demanding “someone DO something” and dumping all the bad press on Little Lord Fauntleroy’s lap….

THAT will inspire confidence in the Costco toilet paper lineups across Canada …….
Trudeau’s “stern, concerned, visage” (his pr hacks working overtime to train him on exactly when to raise the eye brow furrow during the media scrum….) will make us alllll feel safer…..

Good to see you back.

#111 Damifino on 03.08.20 at 1:37 pm

#70 Lambchop

Thanks for the field report. Always appreciated.

Say… remember the Vancouver salt riots? Scary stuff:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QLSViytsl0

#112 Loon on 03.08.20 at 2:00 pm

This is the perspective that I come here for. Thank you Doug and Garth.

#113 oh bouy on 03.08.20 at 2:42 pm

@#101 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 12:15 pm
Dolce, good to have you back! You were missed.
_______________________________________

lol, no he wasn’t.

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.20 at 2:50 pm

@# 111 Damfino
“Say… remember the Vancouver salt riots? …”
++++

Ah yesss, during “Gregor the Dim’s” reign of error.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/former-vancouver-mayor-gregor-robertson-dating-digital-media-pioneer-shahrzad-rafati

I believe “Hizzoner” was on holiday while Vancouver froze and the plows sat idle.

Kinda like Trudeau’s UN African schmooze fest while the Rail Blockades popped up….
Clueless as to the negative optics of their self promotion forays into foreign lands on the taxpayers dime.

#115 Andrew on 03.08.20 at 2:57 pm

#86 Doug

You’ll have to speak to your boss for my source, I provided a link to it at the bottom of my post but it seems to have mysteriously disappeared from my post, along with two other posts I made today. If it was on my end then I apologize to Garth. But the post I submitted had a link to source, Im not going to try and repost it until I hear some sort of clarity. All good either way. Garth’s blog he can do as he pleases.

#116 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 3:19 pm

#113 oh bouy on 03.08.20 at 2:42 pm
@#101 Sail Away on 03.08.20 at 12:15 pm

————————

Dolce, good to have you back! You were missed.

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lol, no he wasn’t.

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Good to have you too, oh bouy. Bitter and cynical though you may be.

#117 Westcdn on 03.08.20 at 11:27 pm

I don’t know what is coming but I can guess. I don’t determine what something is worth – I told my daughters something someone else will pay. I have always been surprised that the last unit price sets market value for the entire group so I can live with the lowest price on a good street – think reliable and survivable cash flow.

It is the weak who die most as proven by CV19 against less aggressive flus. My instincts are to keep my finger nails short and be prepared to isolate myself and shower to protect others.

I have been like Garth in building an inventory of booze – pot does nothing for me than give me the munchies and both make me stupid. To me, the TP frenzy is due to old folk – they can’t accept death happens and you can’t take anything with you except leave memories for the living – more valuable than money. I like to say the graveyard is full of indispensable people. Like investing, people are diverse too. However, I resent people living 1,000’s of km from me in a totally different climate how to live.

I want an IA medical machine in my home – something that challenges me on a daily basis – plus then I don’t won’t to be dead in my home for weeks – they have Government employees in Japan to check on elder singles.

I have been buying preferred’s slowly. I am glad I stepped back last week as things look horrible for this Monday. I am not a fan of ETFs and prefer to pick individual stocks – only time will tell but then I do get to remove fees much like I see government taxes. Sure there is safety in numbers but it would be interesting to me to interview the survivors of the Titanic. My favorited preferred share site is:

https://canadianpreferredshares.ca/

Mileage is depends on willing to learn and do – got gold? I hope to Dog that MSB is not a Biden senior moment to MBS of KSA – if it is, you are human and not a lizard overlord. I hope the value of a strong back and honesty will return.

#118 TheNecessaryDorsalMuscles on 03.09.20 at 1:40 pm

#109

Good on you SmarterSquirrel. I have a similar tale to tell along with some meager material preparations for the time when Ill likely be stuck in the house for a while.

But I will omit the details which a week ago got me labelled a hysterical tinfoil hatter and which would now get me branded a jerk.

Nassim Taleb covers this in one of his books and alas, I cannot find the quote. But the idea was that its only worth predicting black swans for the money because:

1) No matter what evidence you offer of the coming crisis you get told that experts would be talking about the same things if you were right and you aren’t an expert anyway.

2) When “it” happens, everyone you tried to warn says, “I guess you are happy because the disaster you have been hoping for happened”. (This is the stage we are in now.)

3) 6 months later, everyone agrees that the disaster had to happen in hindsight and so no one deserves credit for predicting what everyone already knows.

Best to keep to yourself and act on what you see. Also it actually *is* a little arrogant to brag about being born with the psychological ability to act before the herd based on evidence.

People don’t stand around folding the sheets while the nuclear missile comes in because because they are stupid but because they genuinely cannot do anything else.

Anyway best of luck out there. Lets hope the panic subsides because you and I can’t dance between the raindrops forever.

#119 Tom on 03.09.20 at 1:54 pm

As I learned many moons ago from a wise project manger: “Let silence do the heavy lifting..” Thank-you for your images shared in silence, which provided such full clarity.

#120 Potential investments of U$100k in 2000 on 03.09.20 at 2:51 pm

If this “hypothetical investment of $100,000 in the S&P 500 index” was instead invested in “pet rocks” on Jan.3, 2000 it could have bought you apr. 346.6 standard units of pet rocks. (price was U$288.5 per unit on that day).

Today a unit of these pet rocks is wort apr. U$1676 so your investment will be worth U$580,901